Voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping of stroke lesions underlying somatosensory deficits.
Meyer, Sarah; Kessner, Simon S; Cheng, Bastian; Bönstrup, Marlene; Schulz, Robert; Hummel, Friedhelm C; De Bruyn, Nele; Peeters, Andre; Van Pesch, Vincent; Duprez, Thierry; Sunaert, Stefan; Schrooten, Maarten; Feys, Hilde; Gerloff, Christian; Thomalla, Götz; Thijs, Vincent; Verheyden, Geert
2016-01-01
The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between stroke lesion location and the resulting somatosensory deficit. We studied exteroceptive and proprioceptive somatosensory symptoms and stroke lesions in 38 patients with first-ever acute stroke. The Erasmus modified Nottingham Sensory Assessment was used to clinically evaluate somatosensory functioning in the arm and hand within the first week after stroke onset. Additionally, more objective measures such as the perceptual threshold of touch and somatosensory evoked potentials were recorded. Non-parametric voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping was performed to investigate lesion contribution to different somatosensory deficits in the upper limb. Additionally, structural connectivity of brain areas that demonstrated the strongest association with somatosensory symptoms was determined, using probabilistic fiber tracking based on diffusion tensor imaging data from a healthy age-matched sample. Voxels with a significant association to somatosensory deficits were clustered in two core brain regions: the central parietal white matter, also referred to as the sensory component of the superior thalamic radiation, and the parietal operculum close to the insular cortex, representing the secondary somatosensory cortex. Our objective recordings confirmed findings from clinical assessments. Probabilistic tracking connected the first region to thalamus, internal capsule, brain stem, postcentral gyrus, cerebellum, and frontal pathways, while the second region demonstrated structural connections to thalamus, insular and primary somatosensory cortex. This study reveals that stroke lesions in the sensory fibers of the superior thalamocortical radiation and the parietal operculum are significantly associated with multiple exteroceptive and proprioceptive deficits in the arm and hand.
Voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping of stroke lesions underlying somatosensory deficits
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sarah Meyer
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between stroke lesion location and the resulting somatosensory deficit. We studied exteroceptive and proprioceptive somatosensory symptoms and stroke lesions in 38 patients with first-ever acute stroke. The Erasmus modified Nottingham Sensory Assessment was used to clinically evaluate somatosensory functioning in the arm and hand within the first week after stroke onset. Additionally, more objective measures such as the perceptual threshold of touch and somatosensory evoked potentials were recorded. Non-parametric voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping was performed to investigate lesion contribution to different somatosensory deficits in the upper limb. Additionally, structural connectivity of brain areas that demonstrated the strongest association with somatosensory symptoms was determined, using probabilistic fiber tracking based on diffusion tensor imaging data from a healthy age-matched sample. Voxels with a significant association to somatosensory deficits were clustered in two core brain regions: the central parietal white matter, also referred to as the sensory component of the superior thalamic radiation, and the parietal operculum close to the insular cortex, representing the secondary somatosensory cortex. Our objective recordings confirmed findings from clinical assessments. Probabilistic tracking connected the first region to thalamus, internal capsule, brain stem, postcentral gyrus, cerebellum, and frontal pathways, while the second region demonstrated structural connections to thalamus, insular and primary somatosensory cortex. This study reveals that stroke lesions in the sensory fibers of the superior thalamocortical radiation and the parietal operculum are significantly associated with multiple exteroceptive and proprioceptive deficits in the arm and hand.
Shahid, Hinna; Sebastian, Rajani; Schnur, Tatiana T; Hanayik, Taylor; Wright, Amy; Tippett, Donna C; Fridriksson, Julius; Rorden, Chris; Hillis, Argye E
2017-06-01
Lesion-symptom mapping is an important method of identifying networks of brain regions critical for functions. However, results might be influenced substantially by the imaging modality and timing of assessment. We tested the hypothesis that brain regions found to be associated with acute language deficits depend on (1) timing of behavioral measurement, (2) imaging sequences utilized to define the "lesion" (structural abnormality only or structural plus perfusion abnormality), and (3) power of the study. We studied 191 individuals with acute left hemisphere stroke with MRI and language testing to identify areas critical for spoken word comprehension. We use the data from this study to examine the potential impact of these three variables on lesion-symptom mapping. We found that only the combination of structural and perfusion imaging within 48 h of onset identified areas where more abnormal voxels was associated with more severe acute deficits, after controlling for lesion volume and multiple comparisons. The critical area identified with this methodology was the left posterior superior temporal gyrus, consistent with other methods that have identified an important role of this area in spoken word comprehension. Results have implications for interpretation of other lesion-symptom mapping studies, as well as for understanding areas critical for auditory word comprehension in the healthy brain. We propose that lesion-symptom mapping at the acute stage of stroke addresses a different sort of question about brain-behavior relationships than lesion-symptom mapping at the chronic stage, but that timing of behavioral measurement and imaging modalities should be considered in either case. Hum Brain Mapp 38:2990-3000, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter E Turkeltaub
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping (VLSM has provided valuable insights into the neural underpinnings of various language functions. Integrating lesion mapping methods with other neuroscience techniques may provide new opportunities to investigate questions related both to the neurobiology of language and to plasticity after brain injury. For example, recent diffusion tensor imaging studies have explored relationships between aphasia symptomology and damage in specific white matter tracts (Forkel et al., 2014 or disruption of the white matter connectome (Bonilha, Rorden, & Fridriksson, 2014. VLSM has also recently been used to assess correlations between lesion location and response to transcranial direct current stimulation aphasia treatment (Campana, Caltagirone, & Marangolo, 2015. We have recently undertaken studies integrating VLSM with other techniques, including voxel-based morphometry (VBM and functional MRI, in order to investigate how parts of the brain spared by stroke contribute to recovery. VLSM can be used in this context to map lesions associated with particular patterns of plasticity in brain structure, function, or connectivity. We have also used VLSM to estimate the variance in behavior due to the stroke itself so that this lesion-symptom relationship can be controlled for when examining the contributions of the rest of the brain. Using this approach in combination with VBM, we have identified areas of the right temporoparietal cortex that appear to undergo hypertrophy after stroke and compensate for speech production deficits. In this talk, I will review recent advances in integrating lesion-symptom mapping with other imaging and brain stimulation techniques in order to better understand the brain basis of language and of aphasia recovery.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alberto Pisoni
Full Text Available Data concerning the neural basis of noun and verb processing are inconsistent. Some authors assume that action-verb processing is based on frontal areas while nouns processing relies on temporal regions; others argue that the circuits processing verbs and nouns are closely interconnected in a predominantly left-lateralized fronto-temporal-parietal network; yet, other researchers consider that the primary motor cortex plays a crucial role in processing action verbs. In the present study, one hundred and two patients with a tumour either in the right or left hemisphere were submitted to picture naming of objects and actions before and after surgery. To test the effect of specific brain regions in object and action naming, patients' lesions were mapped and voxel-lesion-symptom mapping (VLSM was computed. Behavioural results showed that left-brain damaged patients were significantly more impaired than right brain-damaged patients. The VLSM showed that these two grammatical classes are segregated in the left hemisphere. In particular, scores in naming of objects correlated with damage to the anterior temporal region, while scores in naming of actions correlated with lesions in the parietal areas and in the posterior temporal cortex. In addition, VLSM analyses carried out on non-linguistic tasks were not significant, confirming that the regions associated with deficits in object and action naming were not generally engaged in all cognitive tasks. Finally, the involvement of subcortical pathways was investigated and the inferior longitudinal fasciculus proved to play a role in object naming, while no specific bundle was identified for actions. Keywords: Object action dissociation, Temporal lesion, Frontal lesion, Voxel-based lesion symptom mapping
Karnath, Hans-Otto; Rennig, Johannes
2017-07-01
Modern voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping (VLSM) analyses techniques provide powerful tools to examine the relationship between structure and function of the healthy human brain. However, there is still uncertainty on the type of and the appropriate time point of imaging and of behavioral testing for such analyses. Here we tested the validity of the three most common combinations of structural imaging data and behavioral scores used in VLSM analyses. Given the established knowledge about the neural substrate of the primary motor system in humans, we asked the mundane question of where the motor system is represented in the normal human brain, analyzing individual arm motor function of 60 unselected stroke patients. Only the combination of acute behavioral scores and acute structural imaging precisely identified the principal brain area for the emergence of hemiparesis after stroke, i.e., the corticospinal tract (CST). In contrast, VLSM analyses based on chronic behavior-in combination with either chronic or acute imaging-required the exclusion of patients who had recovered from an initial paresis to reveal valid anatomical results. Thus, if the primary research aim of a VLSM lesion analysis is to uncover the neural substrates of a certain function in the healthy human brain and if no longitudinal designs with repeated evaluations are planned, the combination of acute imaging and behavior represents the ideal dataset.
Zero in the brain: A voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping study in right hemisphere damaged patients.
Benavides-Varela, Silvia; Passarini, Laura; Butterworth, Brian; Rolma, Giuseppe; Burgio, Francesca; Pitteri, Marco; Meneghello, Francesca; Shallice, Tim; Semenza, Carlo
2016-04-01
Transcoding numerals containing zero is more problematic than transcoding numbers formed by non-zero digits. However, it is currently unknown whether this is due to zeros requiring brain areas other than those traditionally associated with number representation. Here we hypothesize that transcoding zeros entails visuo-spatial and integrative processes typically associated with the right hemisphere. The investigation involved 22 right-brain-damaged patients and 20 healthy controls who completed tests of reading and writing Arabic numbers. As expected, the most significant deficit among patients involved a failure to cope with zeros. Moreover, a voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping (VLSM) analysis showed that the most common zero-errors were maximally associated to the right insula which was previously related to sensorimotor integration, attention, and response selection, yet for the first time linked to transcoding processes. Error categories involving other digits corresponded to the so-called Neglect errors, which however, constituted only about 10% of the total reading and 3% of the writing mistakes made by the patients. We argue that damage to the right hemisphere impairs the mechanism of parsing, and the ability to set-up empty-slot structures required for processing zeros in complex numbers; moreover, we suggest that the brain areas located in proximity to the right insula play a role in the integration of the information resulting from the temporary application of transcoding procedures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Achilles, Elisabeth I S; Weiss, Peter H; Fink, Gereon R; Binder, Ellen; Price, Cathy J; Hope, Thomas M H
2017-11-01
Past attempts to identify the neural substrates of hand and finger imitation skills in the left hemisphere of the brain have yielded inconsistent results. Here, we analyse those associations in a large sample of 257 left hemisphere stroke patients. By introducing novel Bayesian methods, we characterise lesion symptom associations at three levels: the voxel-level, the single-region level (using anatomically defined regions), and the region-pair level. The results are inconsistent across those three levels and we argue that each level of analysis makes assumptions which constrain the results it can produce. Regardless of the inconsistencies across levels, and contrary to past studies which implicated differential neural substrates for hand and finger imitation, we find no consistent voxels or regions, where damage affects one imitation skill and not the other, at any of the three analysis levels. Our novel Bayesian approach indicates that any apparent differences appear to be driven by an increased sensitivity of hand imitation skills to lesions that also impair finger imitation. In our analyses, the results of the highest level of analysis (region-pairs) emphasise a role of the primary somatosensory and motor cortices, and the occipital lobe in imitation. We argue that this emphasis supports an account of both imitation tasks based on direct sensor-motor connections, which throws doubt on past accounts which imply the need for an intermediate (e.g. body-part-coding) system of representation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cosimo eUrgesi
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Several neurophysiologic and neuroimaging studies suggested that motor and perceptual systems are tightly linked along a continuum rather than providing segregated mechanisms supporting different functions. Using correlational approaches, these studies demonstrated that action observation activates not only visual but also motor brain regions. On the other hand, brain stimulation and brain lesion evidence allows tackling the critical question of whether our action representations are necessary to perceive and understand others’ actions. In particular, recent neuropsychological studies have shown that patients with temporal, parietal and frontal lesions exhibit a number of possible deficits in the visual perception and the understanding of others’ actions. The specific anatomical substrates of such neuropsychological deficits however are still a matter of debate. Here we review the existing literature on this issue and perform an anatomic likelihood estimation meta-analysis of studies using lesion-symptom mapping methods on the causal relation between brain lesions and non-linguistic action perception and understanding deficits. The meta-analysis encompassed data from 361 patients tested in 11 studies and identified regions in the inferior frontal cortex, the inferior parietal cortex and the middle/superior temporal cortex, whose damage is consistently associated with poor performance in action perception and understanding tasks across studies. Interestingly, these areas correspond to the three nodes of the action observation network that are strongly activated in response to visual action perception in neuroimaging research and that have been targeted in previous brain stimulation studies. Thus, brain lesion mapping research provides converging causal evidence that premotor, parietal and temporal regions play a crucial role in action recognition and understanding.
Probabilistic Flood Mapping using Volunteered Geographical Information
Rivera, S. J.; Girons Lopez, M.; Seibert, J.; Minsker, B. S.
2016-12-01
Flood extent maps are widely used by decision makers and first responders to provide critical information that prevents economic impacts and the loss of human lives. These maps are usually obtained from sensory data and/or hydrologic models, which often have limited coverage in space and time. Recent developments in social media and communication technology have created a wealth of near-real-time, user-generated content during flood events in many urban areas, such as flooded locations, pictures of flooding extent and height, etc. These data could improve decision-making and response operations as events unfold. However, the integration of these data sources has been limited due to the need for methods that can extract and translate the data into useful information for decision-making. This study presents an approach that uses volunteer geographic information (VGI) and non-traditional data sources (i.e., Twitter, Flicker, YouTube, and 911 and 311 calls) to generate/update the flood extent maps in areas where no models and/or gauge data are operational. The approach combines Web-crawling and computer vision techniques to gather information about the location, extent, and water height of the flood from unstructured textual data, images, and videos. These estimates are then used to provide an updated flood extent map for areas surrounding the geo-coordinate of the VGI through the application of a Hydro Growing Region Algorithm (HGRA). HGRA combines hydrologic and image segmentation concepts to estimate a probabilistic flooding extent along the corresponding creeks. Results obtained for a case study in Austin, TX (i.e., 2015 Memorial Day flood) were comparable to those obtained by a calibrated hydrologic model and had good spatial correlation with flooding extents estimated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps
Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.
2017-12-01
Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.
Identification of probabilistic approaches and map-based navigation ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
B Madhevan
2018-02-07
Feb 7, 2018 ... consists of three processes: map learning (ML), localization and PP [73–76]. (i) ML ...... [83] Thrun S 2001 A probabilistic online mapping algorithm for teams of .... for target tracking using fuzzy logic controller in game theoretic ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Jin Su; Lee, Dong Soo; Lee, Byung Il; Lee, Jae Sung; Shin, Hee Won; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul
2002-01-01
The use of statistical parametric mapping (SPM) program has increased for the analysis of brain PET and SPECT images. Montreal neurological institute (MNI) coordinate is used in SPM program as a standard anatomical framework. While the most researchers look up Talairach atlas to report the localization of the activations detected in SPM program, there is significant disparity between MNI templates and Talairach atlas. That disparity between Talairach and MNI coordinates makes the interpretation of SPM result time consuming, subjective and inaccurate. The purpose of this study was to develop a program to provide objective anatomical information of each x-y-z position in ICBM coordinate. Program was designed to provide the anatomical information for the given x-y-z position in MNI coordinate based on the statistical probabilistic anatomical map (SPAM) images of ICBM. When x-y-z position was given to the program, names of the anatomical structures with non-zero probability and the probabilities that the given position belongs to the structures were tabulated. The program was coded using IDL and JAVA language for the easy transplantation to any operating system or platform. Utility of this program was shown by comparing the results of this program to those of SPM program. Preliminary validation study was performed by applying this program to the analysis of PET brain activation study of human memory in which the anatomical information on the activated areas are previously known. Real time retrieval of probabilistic information with 1 mm spatial resolution was archived using the programs. Validation study showed the relevance of this program: probability that the activated area for memory belonged to hippocampal formation was more than 80%. These programs will be useful for the result interpretation of the image analysis performed on MNI coordinate, as done in SPM program
Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information
Alfonso, L.; Mukolwe, M. M.; Di Baldassarre, G.
2016-02-01
Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard mitigation measure, for which advanced methods and tools (such as flood inundation models) are used to estimate potential flood extent maps that are used in spatial planning. However, these tools are affected, largely to an unknown degree, by both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Over the past few years, advances in uncertainty analysis with respect to flood inundation modeling show that it is appropriate to adopt Probabilistic Flood Maps (PFM) to account for uncertainty. However, the following question arises; how can probabilistic flood hazard information be incorporated into spatial planning? Thus, a consistent framework to incorporate PFMs into the decision-making is required. In this paper, a novel methodology based on Decision-Making under Uncertainty theories, in particular Value of Information (VOI) is proposed. Specifically, the methodology entails the use of a PFM to generate a VOI map, which highlights floodplain locations where additional information is valuable with respect to available floodplain management actions and their potential consequences. The methodology is illustrated with a simplified example and also applied to a real case study in the South of France, where a VOI map is analyzed on the basis of historical land use change decisions over a period of 26 years. Results show that uncertain flood hazard information encapsulated in PFMs can aid decision-making in floodplain planning.
Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt
Gaber, Hanan; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Badawy, Ahmed
2018-04-01
An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).
M. Aamri; A. Bassou; S. Bennani; D. El Moutawakil
2007-01-01
The main purpose of this paper is to give some common fixed point theorems of mappings and set-valued mappings of a symmetric space with some applications to probabilistic spaces. In order to get these results, we define the concept of E-weak compatibility between set-valued and single-valued mappings of a symmetric space.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Jae Sung; Lee, Dong Soo; Kim, Yu Kyeong
2004-01-01
Population based structural and functional maps of the brain provide effective tools for the analysis and interpretation of complex and individually variable brain data. Brain MRI and PET standard templates and statistical probabilistic maps based on image data of Korean normal volunteers have been developed and probabilistic maps based on cytoarchitectonic data have been introduced. A quantification method using these data was developed for the objective assessment of regional intensity in the brain images. Age, gender and ethnic specific anatomical and functional brain templates based on MR and PET images of Korean normal volunteers were developed. Korean structural probabilistic maps for 89 brain regions and cytoarchitectonic probabilistic maps for 13 Brodmann areas were transformed onto the standard templates. Brain FDG PET and SPGR MR images of normal volunteers were spatially normalized onto the template of each modality and gender. Regional uptake of radiotracers in PET and gray matter concentration in MR images were then quantified by averaging (or summing) regional intensities weighted using the probabilistic maps of brain regions. Regionally specific effects of aging on glucose metabolism in cingulate cortex were also examined. Quantification program could generate quantification results for single spatially normalized images per 20 seconds. Glucose metabolism change in cingulate gyrus was regionally specific: ratios of glucose metabolism in the rostral anterior cingulate vs. posterior cingulate and the caudal anterior cingulate vs. posterior cingulate were significantly decreased as the age increased. 'Rostral anterior' / 'posterior' was decreased by 3.1% per decade of age (p -11 , r=0.81) and 'caudal anterior' / 'posterior' was decreased by 1.7% (p -8 , r=0.72). Ethnic specific standard templates and probabilistic maps and quantification program developed in this study will be useful for the analysis of brain image of Korean people since the difference
A Probabilistic Feature Map-Based Localization System Using a Monocular Camera.
Kim, Hyungjin; Lee, Donghwa; Oh, Taekjun; Choi, Hyun-Taek; Myung, Hyun
2015-08-31
Image-based localization is one of the most widely researched localization techniques in the robotics and computer vision communities. As enormous image data sets are provided through the Internet, many studies on estimating a location with a pre-built image-based 3D map have been conducted. Most research groups use numerous image data sets that contain sufficient features. In contrast, this paper focuses on image-based localization in the case of insufficient images and features. A more accurate localization method is proposed based on a probabilistic map using 3D-to-2D matching correspondences between a map and a query image. The probabilistic feature map is generated in advance by probabilistic modeling of the sensor system as well as the uncertainties of camera poses. Using the conventional PnP algorithm, an initial camera pose is estimated on the probabilistic feature map. The proposed algorithm is optimized from the initial pose by minimizing Mahalanobis distance errors between features from the query image and the map to improve accuracy. To verify that the localization accuracy is improved, the proposed algorithm is compared with the conventional algorithm in a simulation and realenvironments.
A Probabilistic Feature Map-Based Localization System Using a Monocular Camera
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hyungjin Kim
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Image-based localization is one of the most widely researched localization techniques in the robotics and computer vision communities. As enormous image data sets are provided through the Internet, many studies on estimating a location with a pre-built image-based 3D map have been conducted. Most research groups use numerous image data sets that contain sufficient features. In contrast, this paper focuses on image-based localization in the case of insufficient images and features. A more accurate localization method is proposed based on a probabilistic map using 3D-to-2D matching correspondences between a map and a query image. The probabilistic feature map is generated in advance by probabilistic modeling of the sensor system as well as the uncertainties of camera poses. Using the conventional PnP algorithm, an initial camera pose is estimated on the probabilistic feature map. The proposed algorithm is optimized from the initial pose by minimizing Mahalanobis distance errors between features from the query image and the map to improve accuracy. To verify that the localization accuracy is improved, the proposed algorithm is compared with the conventional algorithm in a simulation and realenvironments
Development of Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping For Flooding Induced by Dam Failure
Tsai, C.; Yeh, J. J. J.
2017-12-01
A primary function of flood inundation mapping is to forecast flood hazards and assess potential losses. However, uncertainties limit the reliability of inundation hazard assessments. Major sources of uncertainty should be taken into consideration by an optimal flood management strategy. This study focuses on the 20km reach downstream of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A dam failure induced flood herein provides the upstream boundary conditions of flood routing. The two major sources of uncertainty that are considered in the hydraulic model and the flood inundation mapping herein are uncertainties in the dam break model and uncertainty of the roughness coefficient. The perturbance moment method is applied to a dam break model and the hydro system model to develop probabilistic flood inundation mapping. Various numbers of uncertain variables can be considered in these models and the variability of outputs can be quantified. The probabilistic flood inundation mapping for dam break induced floods can be developed with consideration of the variability of output using a commonly used HEC-RAS model. Different probabilistic flood inundation mappings are discussed and compared. Probabilistic flood inundation mappings are hoped to provide new physical insights in support of the evaluation of concerning reservoir flooded areas.
A Probabilistic Approach for Improved Sequence Mapping in Metatranscriptomic Studies
Mapping millions of short DNA sequences a reference genome is a necessary step in many experiments designed to investigate the expression of genes involved in disease resistance. This is a difficult task in which several challenges often arise resulting in a suboptimal mapping. This mapping process ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Badridatt Pant
2014-02-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we prove a common fixed point theorem for finite number of self mappings in Menger probabilistic quasi metric space. Our result improves and extends the results of Rezaiyan et al. [A common fixed point theorem in Menger probabilistic quasi-metric spaces, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 37 (2008 1153-1157.], Miheţ [A note on a fixed point theorem in Menger probabilistic quasi-metric spaces, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 40 (2009 2349-2352], Pant and Chauhan [Fixed points theorems in Menger probabilistic quasi metric spaces using weak compatibility, Internat. Math. Forum 5 (6 (2010 283-290] and Sastry et al. [A fixed point theorem in Menger PQM-spaces using weak compatibility, Internat. Math. Forum 5 (52 (2010 2563-2568
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mayer-Rosa, D.; Merz, H.A.
1976-01-01
The probabilistic model used in a seismic risk mapping project for Switzerland is presented. Some of its advantages and limitations are spelled out. In addition some earthquake parameters which should be carefully investigated before using them in a seismic risk analysis are discussed
Ellingson, Benjamin M; Cloughesy, Timothy F; Lai, Albert; Nghiemphu, Phioanh L; Liau, Linda M; Pope, Whitney B
2013-03-01
Functional diffusion mapping (fDM) is a cancer imaging technique that uses voxel-wise changes in apparent diffusion coefficients (ADC) to evaluate response to treatment. Despite promising initial results, uncertainty in image registration remains the largest barrier to widespread clinical application. The current study introduces a probabilistic approach to fDM quantification to overcome some of these limitations. A total of 143 patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma who were undergoing standard radiochemotherapy were enrolled in this retrospective study. Traditional and probabilistic fDMs were calculated using ADC maps acquired before and after therapy. Probabilistic fDMs were calculated by applying random, finite translational, and rotational perturbations to both pre-and posttherapy ADC maps, then repeating calculation of fDMs reflecting changes after treatment, resulting in probabilistic fDMs showing the voxel-wise probability of fDM classification. Probabilistic fDMs were then compared with traditional fDMs in their ability to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Probabilistic fDMs applied to patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma treated with radiochemotherapy demonstrated shortened PFS and OS among patients with a large volume of tumor with decreasing ADC evaluated at the posttreatment time with respect to the baseline scans. Alternatively, patients with a large volume of tumor with increasing ADC evaluated at the posttreatment time with respect to baseline scans were more likely to progress later and live longer. Probabilistic fDMs performed better than traditional fDMs at predicting 12-month PFS and 24-month OS with use of receiver-operator characteristic analysis. Univariate log-rank analysis on Kaplan-Meier data also revealed that probabilistic fDMs could better separate patients on the basis of PFS and OS, compared with traditional fDMs. Results suggest that probabilistic fDMs are a more predictive biomarker in
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Jae Sung; Lee, Dong Soo; Kim, Yu Kyeong [College of Medicine, Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] [and others
2004-06-01
Population based structural and functional maps of the brain provide effective tools for the analysis and interpretation of complex and individually variable brain data. Brain MRI and PET standard templates and statistical probabilistic maps based on image data of Korean normal volunteers have been developed and probabilistic maps based on cytoarchitectonic data have been introduced. A quantification method using these data was developed for the objective assessment of regional intensity in the brain images. Age, gender and ethnic specific anatomical and functional brain templates based on MR and PET images of Korean normal volunteers were developed. Korean structural probabilistic maps for 89 brain regions and cytoarchitectonic probabilistic maps for 13 Brodmann areas were transformed onto the standard templates. Brain FDG PET and SPGR MR images of normal volunteers were spatially normalized onto the template of each modality and gender. Regional uptake of radiotracers in PET and gray matter concentration in MR images were then quantified by averaging (or summing) regional intensities weighted using the probabilistic maps of brain regions. Regionally specific effects of aging on glucose metabolism in cingulate cortex were also examined. Quantification program could generate quantification results for single spatially normalized images per 20 seconds. Glucose metabolism change in cingulate gyrus was regionally specific: ratios of glucose metabolism in the rostral anterior cingulate vs. posterior cingulate and the caudal anterior cingulate vs. posterior cingulate were significantly decreased as the age increased. 'Rostral anterior' / 'posterior' was decreased by 3.1% per decade of age (p<10{sup -11}, r=0.81) and 'caudal anterior' / 'posterior' was decreased by 1.7% (p<10{sup -8}, r=0.72). Ethnic specific standard templates and probabilistic maps and quantification program developed in this study will be useful for the analysis
Automated Analysis of 123I-beta-CIT SPECT Images with Statistical Probabilistic Anatomical Mapping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eo, Jae Seon; Lee, Hoyoung; Lee, Jae Sung; Kim, Yu Kyung; Jeon, Bumseok; Lee, Dong Soo
2014-01-01
Population-based statistical probabilistic anatomical maps have been used to generate probabilistic volumes of interest for analyzing perfusion and metabolic brain imaging. We investigated the feasibility of automated analysis for dopamine transporter images using this technique and evaluated striatal binding potentials in Parkinson's disease and Wilson's disease. We analyzed 2β-Carbomethoxy-3β-(4- 123 I-iodophenyl)tropane ( 123 I-beta-CIT) SPECT images acquired from 26 people with Parkinson's disease (M:F=11:15,mean age=49±12 years), 9 people with Wilson's disease (M: F=6:3, mean age=26±11 years) and 17 normal controls (M:F=5:12, mean age=39±16 years). A SPECT template was created using striatal statistical probabilistic map images. All images were spatially normalized onto the template, and probability-weighted regional counts in striatal structures were estimated. The binding potential was calculated using the ratio of specific and nonspecific binding activities at equilibrium. Voxel-based comparisons between groups were also performed using statistical parametric mapping. Qualitative assessment showed that spatial normalizations of the SPECT images were successful for all images. The striatal binding potentials of participants with Parkinson's disease and Wilson's disease were significantly lower than those of normal controls. Statistical parametric mapping analysis found statistically significant differences only in striatal regions in both disease groups compared to controls. We successfully evaluated the regional 123 I-beta-CIT distribution using the SPECT template and probabilistic map data automatically. This procedure allows an objective and quantitative comparison of the binding potential, which in this case showed a significantly decreased binding potential in the striata of patients with Parkinson's disease or Wilson's disease
Probabilistic Cosmological Mass Mapping from Weak Lensing Shear
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schneider, M. D.; Dawson, W. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94551 (United States); Ng, K. Y. [University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Marshall, P. J. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94035 (United States); Meyers, J. E. [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Bard, D. J., E-mail: schneider42@llnl.gov, E-mail: dstn@cmu.edu, E-mail: boutigny@in2p3.fr, E-mail: djbard@slac.stanford.edu, E-mail: jmeyers314@stanford.edu [National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720-8150 (United States)
2017-04-10
We infer gravitational lensing shear and convergence fields from galaxy ellipticity catalogs under a spatial process prior for the lensing potential. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm with simulated Gaussian-distributed cosmological lensing shear maps and a reconstruction of the mass distribution of the merging galaxy cluster Abell 781 using galaxy ellipticities measured with the Deep Lens Survey. Given interim posterior samples of lensing shear or convergence fields on the sky, we describe an algorithm to infer cosmological parameters via lens field marginalization. In the most general formulation of our algorithm we make no assumptions about weak shear or Gaussian-distributed shape noise or shears. Because we require solutions and matrix determinants of a linear system of dimension that scales with the number of galaxies, we expect our algorithm to require parallel high-performance computing resources for application to ongoing wide field lensing surveys.
Probabilistic Mapping of Human Visual Attention from Head Pose Estimation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrea Veronese
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Effective interaction between a human and a robot requires the bidirectional perception and interpretation of actions and behavior. While actions can be identified as a directly observable activity, this might not be sufficient to deduce actions in a scene. For example, orienting our face toward a book might suggest the action toward “reading.” For a human observer, this deduction requires the direction of gaze, the object identified as a book and the intersection between gaze and book. With this in mind, we aim to estimate and map human visual attention as directed to a scene, and assess how this relates to the detection of objects and their related actions. In particular, we consider human head pose as measurement to infer the attention of a human engaged in a task and study which prior knowledge should be included in such a detection system. In a user study, we show the successful detection of attention to objects in a typical office task scenario (i.e., reading, working with a computer, studying an object. Our system requires a single external RGB camera for head pose measurements and a pre-recorded 3D point cloud of the environment.
Resolution and Probabilistic Models of Components in CryoEM Maps of Mature P22 Bacteriophage
Pintilie, Grigore; Chen, Dong-Hua; Haase-Pettingell, Cameron A.; King, Jonathan A.; Chiu, Wah
2016-01-01
CryoEM continues to produce density maps of larger and more complex assemblies with multiple protein components of mixed symmetries. Resolution is not always uniform throughout a cryoEM map, and it can be useful to estimate the resolution in specific molecular components of a large assembly. In this study, we present procedures to 1) estimate the resolution in subcomponents by gold-standard Fourier shell correlation (FSC); 2) validate modeling procedures, particularly at medium resolutions, which can include loop modeling and flexible fitting; and 3) build probabilistic models that combine high-accuracy priors (such as crystallographic structures) with medium-resolution cryoEM densities. As an example, we apply these methods to new cryoEM maps of the mature bacteriophage P22, reconstructed without imposing icosahedral symmetry. Resolution estimates based on gold-standard FSC show the highest resolution in the coat region (7.6 Å), whereas other components are at slightly lower resolutions: portal (9.2 Å), hub (8.5 Å), tailspike (10.9 Å), and needle (10.5 Å). These differences are indicative of inherent structural heterogeneity and/or reconstruction accuracy in different subcomponents of the map. Probabilistic models for these subcomponents provide new insights, to our knowledge, and structural information when taking into account uncertainty given the limitations of the observed density. PMID:26743049
Papaioannou, George; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Aronica, Giuseppe T.
2017-04-01
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping is performed and analysed at the ungauged Xerias stream reach, Volos, Greece. The study evaluates the uncertainty introduced by the roughness coefficient values on hydraulic models in flood inundation modelling and mapping. The well-established one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model, HEC-RAS is selected and linked to Monte-Carlo simulations of hydraulic roughness. Terrestrial Laser Scanner data have been used to produce a high quality DEM for input data uncertainty minimisation and to improve determination accuracy on stream channel topography required by the hydraulic model. Initial Manning's n roughness coefficient values are based on pebble count field surveys and empirical formulas. Various theoretical probability distributions are fitted and evaluated on their accuracy to represent the estimated roughness values. Finally, Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for generation of different sets of Manning roughness values and flood inundation probability maps have been created with the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Historical flood extent data, from an extreme historical flash flood event, are used for validation of the method. The calibration process is based on a binary wet-dry reasoning with the use of Median Absolute Percentage Error evaluation metric. The results show that the proposed procedure supports probabilistic flood hazard mapping at ungauged rivers and provides water resources managers with valuable information for planning and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies.
A probabilistic map of the human ventral sensorimotor cortex using electrical stimulation.
Breshears, Jonathan D; Molinaro, Annette M; Chang, Edward F
2015-08-01
The human ventral sensorimotor cortex (vSMC) is involved in facial expression, mastication, and swallowing, as well as the dynamic and highly coordinated movements of human speech production. However, vSMC organization remains poorly understood, and previously published population-driven maps of its somatotopy do not accurately reflect the variability across individuals in a quantitative, probabilistic fashion. The goal of this study was to describe the responses to electrical stimulation of the vSMC, generate probabilistic maps of function in the vSMC, and quantify the variability across individuals. Photographic, video, and stereotactic MRI data of intraoperative electrical stimulation of the vSMC were collected for 33 patients undergoing awake craniotomy. Stimulation sites were converted to a 2D coordinate system based on anatomical landmarks. Motor, sensory, and speech stimulation responses were reviewed and classified. Probabilistic maps of stimulation responses were generated, and spatial variance was quantified. In 33 patients, the authors identified 194 motor, 212 sensory, 61 speech-arrest, and 27 mixed responses. Responses were complex, stereotyped, and mostly nonphysiological movements, involving hand, orofacial, and laryngeal musculature. Within individuals, the presence of oral movement representations varied; however, the dorsal-ventral order was always preserved. The most robust motor responses were jaw (probability 0.85), tongue (0.64), lips (0.58), and throat (0.52). Vocalizations were seen in 6 patients (0.18), more dorsally near lip and dorsal throat areas. Sensory responses were spatially dispersed; however, patients' subjective reports were highly precise in localization within the mouth. The most robust responses included tongue (0.82) and lips (0.42). The probability of speech arrest was 0.85, highest 15-20 mm anterior to the central sulcus and just dorsal to the sylvian fissure, in the anterior precentral gyrus or pars opercularis. The
Lawnik, Marcin
2018-01-01
The scope of the paper is the presentation of a new method of generating numbers from a given distribution. The method uses the inverse cumulative distribution function and a method of flattening of probabilistic distributions. On the grounds of these methods, a new construction of chaotic maps was derived, which generates values from a given distribution. The analysis of the new method was conducted on the example of a newly constructed chaotic recurrences, based on the Box-Muller transformation and the quantile function of the exponential distribution. The obtained results certify that the proposed method may be successively applicable for the construction of generators of pseudo-random numbers.
Aulanier, Florian; Simard, Yvan; Roy, Nathalie; Gervaise, Cédric; Bandet, Marion
2017-12-15
Canadian Arctic and Subarctic regions experience a rapid decrease of sea ice accompanied with increasing shipping traffic. The resulting time-space changes in shipping noise are studied for four key regions of this pristine environment, for 2013 traffic conditions and a hypothetical tenfold traffic increase. A probabilistic modeling and mapping framework, called Ramdam, which integrates the intrinsic variability and uncertainties of shipping noise and its effects on marine habitats, is developed and applied. A substantial transformation of soundscapes is observed in areas where shipping noise changes from present occasional-transient contributor to a dominant noise source. Examination of impacts on low-frequency mammals within ecologically and biologically significant areas reveals that shipping noise has the potential to trigger behavioral responses and masking in the future, although no risk of temporary or permanent hearing threshold shifts is noted. Such probabilistic modeling and mapping is strategic in marine spatial planning of this emerging noise issues. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oh, Jung Su; Lee, Jae Sung; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul; Lee, Dong Soo
2005-01-01
In the statistical probabilistic mapping, commonly, differences between two or more groups of subjects are statistically analyzed following spatial normalization. However, to our best knowledge, there is few study which performed the statistical mapping in the individual brain space rather than in the stereotaxic brain space, i.e., template space. Therefore, in the current study, a new method for mapping the statistical results in the template space onto individual brain space has been developed. Four young subjects with epilepsy and their age-matched thirty normal healthy subjects were recruited. Both FDG PET and T1 structural MRI was scanned in these groups. Statistical analysis on the decreased FDG metabolism in epilepsy was performed on the SPM with two sample t-test (p < 0.001, intensity threshold 100). To map the statistical results onto individual space, inverse deformation was performed as follows. With SPM deformation toolbox, DCT (discrete cosine transform) basis-encoded deformation fields between individual T1 images and T1 MNI template were obtained. Afterward, inverse of those fields, i.e., inverse deformation fields were obtained. Since both PET and T1 images have been already normalized in the same MNI space, inversely deformed results in PET is on the individual brain MRI space. By applying inverse deformation field on the statistical results of the PET, the statistical map of decreased metabolism in individual spaces were obtained. With statistical results in the template space, localization of decreased metabolism was in the inferior temporal lobe, which was slightly inferior to the hippocampus. The statistical results in the individual space were commonly located in the hippocampus, where the activation should be decreased according to a priori knowledge of neuroscience. With our newly developed statistical mapping on the individual spaces, the localization of the brain functional mapping became more appropriate in the sense of neuroscience
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oh, Jung Su; Lee, Jae Sung; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul; Lee, Dong Soo [Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2005-07-01
In the statistical probabilistic mapping, commonly, differences between two or more groups of subjects are statistically analyzed following spatial normalization. However, to our best knowledge, there is few study which performed the statistical mapping in the individual brain space rather than in the stereotaxic brain space, i.e., template space. Therefore, in the current study, a new method for mapping the statistical results in the template space onto individual brain space has been developed. Four young subjects with epilepsy and their age-matched thirty normal healthy subjects were recruited. Both FDG PET and T1 structural MRI was scanned in these groups. Statistical analysis on the decreased FDG metabolism in epilepsy was performed on the SPM with two sample t-test (p < 0.001, intensity threshold 100). To map the statistical results onto individual space, inverse deformation was performed as follows. With SPM deformation toolbox, DCT (discrete cosine transform) basis-encoded deformation fields between individual T1 images and T1 MNI template were obtained. Afterward, inverse of those fields, i.e., inverse deformation fields were obtained. Since both PET and T1 images have been already normalized in the same MNI space, inversely deformed results in PET is on the individual brain MRI space. By applying inverse deformation field on the statistical results of the PET, the statistical map of decreased metabolism in individual spaces were obtained. With statistical results in the template space, localization of decreased metabolism was in the inferior temporal lobe, which was slightly inferior to the hippocampus. The statistical results in the individual space were commonly located in the hippocampus, where the activation should be decreased according to a priori knowledge of neuroscience. With our newly developed statistical mapping on the individual spaces, the localization of the brain functional mapping became more appropriate in the sense of neuroscience.
Hömke, Lars; Amunts, Katrin; Bönig, Lutz; Fretz, Christian; Binkofski, Ferdinand; Zilles, Karl; Weder, Bruno
2009-05-01
We propose a novel methodical approach to lesion analyses involving high-resolution MR images in combination with probabilistic cytoarchitectonic maps. 3D-MR images of the whole brain and the manually segmented lesion mask are spatially normalized to the reference brain of a stereotaxic probabilistic cytoarchitectonic atlas using a multiscale registration algorithm based on an elastic model. The procedure is demonstrated in three patients suffering from aperceptive tactile agnosia of the right hand due to chronic infarction of the left parietal cortex. Patient 1 presents a lesion in areas of the postcentral sulcus, Patient 3 in areas of the superior parietal lobule and adjacent intraparietal sulcus, and Patient 2 lesions in both regions. On the basis of neurobehavioral data, we conjectured degradation of sequential elementary sensory information processing within the postcentral gyrus, impeding texture recognition in Patients 1 and 2, and disturbed kinaesthetic information processing in the posterior parietal lobe, causing degraded shape recognition in the patients 2 and 3. The involvement of Brodmann areas 4a, 4p, 3a, 3b, 1, 2, and areas IP1 and IP2 of the intraparietal sulcus was assessed in terms of the voxel overlap between the spatially transformed lesion masks and the 50%-isocontours of the cytoarchitectonic maps. The disruption of the critical cytoarchitectonic areas and the impaired subfunctions, texture and shape recognition, relate as conjectured above. We conclude that the proposed method represents a promising approach to hypothesis-driven lesion analyses, yielding lesion-function correlates based on a cytoarchitectonic model. Finally, the lesion-function correlates are validated by functional imaging reference data. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Caspers, Julian; Zilles, Karl; Eickhoff, Simon B; Schleicher, Axel; Mohlberg, Hartmut; Amunts, Katrin
2013-03-01
The human extrastriate visual cortex comprises numerous functionally defined areas, which are not identified in the widely used cytoarchitectonical map of Brodmann. The ventral part of the extrastriate cortex is particularly devoted to the identification of visual objects, faces and word forms. We analyzed the region immediately antero-lateral to hOc4v in serially sectioned (20 μm) and cell body-stained human brains using a quantitative observer-independent cytoarchitectonical approach to further identify the anatomical organization of the extrastriate cortex. Two novel cytoarchitectonical areas, FG1 and FG2, were identified on the posterior fusiform gyrus. The results of ten postmortem brains were then registered to their MRI volumes (acquired before histological processing), 3D reconstructed, and spatially normalized to the Montreal Neurological Institute reference brain. Finally, probabilistic maps were generated for each cytoarchitectonical area by superimposing the areas of the individual brains in the reference space. Comparison with recent functional imaging studies yielded that both areas are located within the object-related visual cortex. FG1 fills the gap between the retinotopically mapped area VO-1 and a posterior fusiform face patch. FG2 is probably the correlate of this face patch.
Probabilistic mapping of flood-induced backscatter changes in SAR time series
Schlaffer, Stefan; Chini, Marco; Giustarini, Laura; Matgen, Patrick
2017-04-01
The information content of flood extent maps can be increased considerably by including information on the uncertainty of the flood area delineation. This additional information can be of benefit in flood forecasting and monitoring. Furthermore, flood probability maps can be converted to binary maps showing flooded and non-flooded areas by applying a threshold probability value pF = 0.5. In this study, a probabilistic change detection approach for flood mapping based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time series is proposed. For this purpose, conditional probability density functions (PDFs) for land and open water surfaces were estimated from ENVISAT ASAR Wide Swath (WS) time series containing >600 images using a reference mask of permanent water bodies. A pixel-wise harmonic model was used to account for seasonality in backscatter from land areas caused by soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The approach was evaluated for a large-scale flood event along the River Severn, United Kingdom. The retrieved flood probability maps were compared to a reference flood mask derived from high-resolution aerial imagery by means of reliability diagrams. The obtained performance measures indicate both high reliability and confidence although there was a slight under-estimation of the flood extent, which may in part be attributed to topographically induced radar shadows along the edges of the floodplain. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of local incidence angle for the separability between flooded and non-flooded areas as specular reflection properties of open water surfaces increase with a more oblique viewing geometry.
Satellite Based Probabilistic Snow Cover Extent Mapping (SCE) at Hydro-Québec
Teasdale, Mylène; De Sève, Danielle; Angers, Jean-François; Perreault, Luc
2016-04-01
Over 40% of Canada's water resources are in Quebec and Hydro-Quebec has developed potential to become one of the largest producers of hydroelectricity in the world, with a total installed capacity of 36,643 MW. The Hydro-Québec fleet park includes 27 large reservoirs with a combined storage capacity of 176 TWh, and 668 dams and 98 controls. Thus, over 98% of all electricity used to supply the domestic market comes from water resources and the excess output is sold on the wholesale markets. In this perspective the efficient management of water resources is needed and it is based primarily on a good river flow estimation including appropriate hydrological data. Snow on ground is one of the significant variables representing 30% to 40% of its annual energy reserve. More specifically, information on snow cover extent (SCE) and snow water equivalent (SWE) is crucial for hydrological forecasting, particularly in northern regions since the snowmelt provides the water that fills the reservoirs and is subsequently used for hydropower generation. For several years Hydro Quebec's research institute ( IREQ) developed several algorithms to map SCE and SWE. So far all the methods were deterministic. However, given the need to maximize the efficient use of all resources while ensuring reliability, the electrical systems must now be managed taking into account all risks. Since snow cover estimation is based on limited spatial information, it is important to quantify and handle its uncertainty in the hydrological forecasting system. This paper presents the first results of a probabilistic algorithm for mapping SCE by combining Bayesian mixture of probability distributions and multiple logistic regression models applied to passive microwave data. This approach allows assigning for each grid point, probabilities to the set of the mutually exclusive discrete outcomes: "snow" and "no snow". Its performance was evaluated using the Brier score since it is particularly appropriate to
Assessment of dynamic probabilistic methods for mapping snow cover in Québec Canada
De Seve, D.; Perreault, L.; Vachon, F.; Guay, F.; choquette, Y.
2012-04-01
with an ensemble mapping approach. The ensemble was generated from a Monte Carlo method. The second one relies on a probabilistic clustering method based on Bayesian Gaussian mixture models. Mixtures of probability distributions become natural models to represent data sets where the observations may have arisen from several distinct statistical populations. Each method can provide a map of uncertainty for the ground and the snow classes, which is a huge benefit for forecasters. Initial results have shown the difficulty of mapping the border between the snow and the ground with traditional approaches. In addition, the application of the mixture models reveals the presence of a third class, which seems to characterize the transition zone between snow and soil.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eileen eLuders
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Scientific studies addressing anatomical variations in meditators’ brains have emerged rapidly over the last few years, where significant links are most frequently reported with respect to gray matter (GM. To advance prior work, this study examined GM characteristics in a large sample of 100 subjects (50 meditators, 50 controls, where meditators have been practicing close to twenty years, on average. A standard, whole-brain voxel-based morphometry approach was applied and revealed significant meditation effects in the vicinity of the hippocampus, showing more GM in meditators than in controls as well as positive correlations with the number of years practiced. However, the hippocampal complex is regionally segregated by architecture, connectivity, and functional relevance. Thus, to establish differential effects within the hippocampal formation (cornu ammonis, fascia dentate, entorhinal cortex, subiculum as well as the hippocampal-amygdaloid transition area, we utilized refined cytoarchitectonic probabilistic maps of (peri- hippocampal subsections. Significant meditation effects were observed within the subiculum specifically. Since the subiculum is known to play a key role in stress regulation and meditation is an established form of stress reduction, these GM findings may reflect neuronal preservation in long-term meditators – perhaps due to an attenuated release of stress hormones and decreased neurotoxicity.
Luders, Eileen; Kurth, Florian; Toga, Arthur W.; Narr, Katherine L.; Gaser, Christian
2013-01-01
Scientific studies addressing anatomical variations in meditators' brains have emerged rapidly over the last few years, where significant links are most frequently reported with respect to gray matter (GM). To advance prior work, this study examined GM characteristics in a large sample of 100 subjects (50 meditators, 50 controls), where meditators have been practicing close to 20 years, on average. A standard, whole-brain voxel-based morphometry approach was applied and revealed significant meditation effects in the vicinity of the hippocampus, showing more GM in meditators than in controls as well as positive correlations with the number of years practiced. However, the hippocampal complex is regionally segregated by architecture, connectivity, and functional relevance. Thus, to establish differential effects within the hippocampal formation (cornu ammonis, fascia dentata, entorhinal cortex, subiculum) as well as the hippocampal-amygdaloid transition area, we utilized refined cytoarchitectonic probabilistic maps of (peri-) hippocampal subsections. Significant meditation effects were observed within the subiculum specifically. Since the subiculum is known to play a key role in stress regulation and meditation is an established form of stress reduction, these GM findings may reflect neuronal preservation in long-term meditators—perhaps due to an attenuated release of stress hormones and decreased neurotoxicity. PMID:23847572
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sean Sweeney
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Traditional smallholder farming systems dominate the savanna range countries of sub-Saharan Africa and provide the foundation for the region’s food security. Despite continued expansion of smallholder farming into the surrounding savanna landscapes, food insecurity in the region persists. Central to the monitoring of food security in these countries, and to understanding the processes behind it, are reliable, high-quality datasets of cultivated land. Remote sensing has been frequently used for this purpose but distinguishing crops under certain stages of growth from savanna woodlands has remained a major challenge. Yet, crop production in dryland ecosystems is most vulnerable to seasonal climate variability, amplifying the need for high quality products showing the distribution and extent of cropland. The key objective in this analysis is the development of a classification protocol for African savanna landscapes, emphasizing the delineation of cropland. We integrate remote sensing techniques with probabilistic modeling into an innovative workflow. We present summary results for this methodology applied to a land cover classification of Zambia’s Southern Province. Five primary land cover categories are classified for the study area, producing an overall map accuracy of 88.18%. Omission error within the cropland class is 12.11% and commission error 9.76%.
Yusof, Norbazlan M.; Pradhan, Biswajeet
2014-06-01
PLUS Berhad holds the concession for a total of 987 km of toll expressways in Malaysia, the longest of which is the North-South Expressway or NSE. Acting as the backbone' of the west coast of the peninsula, the NSE stretches from the Malaysian-Thai border in the north to the border with neighbouring Singapore in the south, linking several major cities and towns along the way. North-South Expressway in Malaysia contributes to the country economic development through trade, social and tourism sector. Presently, the highway is good in terms of its condition and connection to every state but some locations need urgent attention. Stability of slopes at these locations is of most concern as any instability can cause danger to the motorist. In this paper, two study locations have been analysed; they are Gua Tempurung (soil slope) and Jelapang (rock slope) which are obviously having two different characteristics. These locations passed through undulating terrain with steep slopes where landslides are common and the probability of slope instability due to human activities in surrounding areas is high. A combination of twelve (12) landslide conditioning factors database on slope stability such as slope degree and slope aspect were extracted from IFSAR (interoferometric synthetic aperture radar) while landuse, lithology and structural geology were constructed from interpretation of high resolution satellite data from World View II, Quickbird and Ikonos. All this information was analysed in geographic information system (GIS) environment for landslide susceptibility mapping using probabilistic based frequency ratio model. Consequently, information on the slopes such as inventories, condition assessments and maintenance records were assessed through total expressway maintenance management system or better known as TEMAN. The above mentioned system is used by PLUS as an asset management and decision support tools for maintenance activities along the highways as well as for data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yusof, Norbazlan M; Pradhan, Biswajeet
2014-01-01
PLUS Berhad holds the concession for a total of 987 km of toll expressways in Malaysia, the longest of which is the North-South Expressway or NSE. Acting as the backbone' of the west coast of the peninsula, the NSE stretches from the Malaysian-Thai border in the north to the border with neighbouring Singapore in the south, linking several major cities and towns along the way. North-South Expressway in Malaysia contributes to the country economic development through trade, social and tourism sector. Presently, the highway is good in terms of its condition and connection to every state but some locations need urgent attention. Stability of slopes at these locations is of most concern as any instability can cause danger to the motorist. In this paper, two study locations have been analysed; they are Gua Tempurung (soil slope) and Jelapang (rock slope) which are obviously having two different characteristics. These locations passed through undulating terrain with steep slopes where landslides are common and the probability of slope instability due to human activities in surrounding areas is high. A combination of twelve (12) landslide conditioning factors database on slope stability such as slope degree and slope aspect were extracted from IFSAR (interoferometric synthetic aperture radar) while landuse, lithology and structural geology were constructed from interpretation of high resolution satellite data from World View II, Quickbird and Ikonos. All this information was analysed in geographic information system (GIS) environment for landslide susceptibility mapping using probabilistic based frequency ratio model. Consequently, information on the slopes such as inventories, condition assessments and maintenance records were assessed through total expressway maintenance management system or better known as TEMAN. The above mentioned system is used by PLUS as an asset management and decision support tools for maintenance activities along the highways as well as for
Seismic hazard in Hawaii: High rate of large earthquakes and probabilistics ground-motion maps
Klein, F.W.; Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Wesson, R.L.; Okubo, P.G.
2001-01-01
The seismic hazard and earthquake occurrence rates in Hawaii are locally as high as that near the most hazardous faults elsewhere in the United States. We have generated maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) (at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 sec, 5% critical damping) at 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The highest hazard is on the south side of Hawaii Island, as indicated by the MI 7.0, MS 7.2, and MI 7.9 earthquakes, which occurred there since 1868. Probabilistic values of horizontal PGA (2% in 50 years) on Hawaii's south coast exceed 1.75g. Because some large earthquake aftershock zones and the geometry of flank blocks slipping on subhorizontal decollement faults are known, we use a combination of spatially uniform sources in active flank blocks and smoothed seismicity in other areas to model seismicity. Rates of earthquakes are derived from magnitude distributions of the modem (1959-1997) catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's seismic network supplemented by the historic (1868-1959) catalog. Modern magnitudes are ML measured on a Wood-Anderson seismograph or MS. Historic magnitudes may add ML measured on a Milne-Shaw or Bosch-Omori seismograph or MI derived from calibrated areas of MM intensities. Active flank areas, which by far account for the highest hazard, are characterized by distributions with b slopes of about 1.0 below M 5.0 and about 0.6 above M 5.0. The kinked distribution means that large earthquake rates would be grossly under-estimated by extrapolating small earthquake rates, and that longer catalogs are essential for estimating or verifying the rates of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes thus follow a semicharacteristic model, which is a combination of background seismicity and an excess number of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes are geometrically confined to rupture zones on the volcano flanks by barriers such as rift zones and the seaward edge of the volcano, which may be expressed by a magnitude
Mastrolorenzo, G.; Pappalardo, L.; Troise, C.; Panizza, A.; de Natale, G.
2008-07-01
Tephra fall is a relevant hazard of Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), due to the high vulnerability of Naples metropolitan area to such an event. Here, tephra derive from magmatic as well as phreatomagmatic activity. On the basis of both new and literature data on known, past eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), grain size parameters, velocity at the vent, column heights and erupted mass), and factors controlling tephra dispersion (wind velocity and direction), 2D numerical simulations of fallout dispersion and deposition have been performed for a large number of case events. A bayesian inversion has been applied to retrieve the best values of critical parameters (e.g., vertical mass distribution, diffusion coefficients, velocity at the vent), not directly inferable by volcanological study. Simulations are run in parallel on multiple processors to allow a fully probabilistic analysis, on a very large catalogue preserving the statistical proprieties of past eruptive history. Using simulation results, hazard maps have been computed for different scenarios: upper limit scenario (worst-expected scenario), eruption-range scenario, and whole-eruption scenario. Results indicate that although high hazard characterizes the Campi Flegrei caldera, the territory to the east of the caldera center, including the whole district of Naples, is exposed to high hazard values due to the dominant westerly winds. Consistently with the stratigraphic evidence of nature of past eruptions, our numerical simulations reveal that even in the case of a subplinian eruption (VEI = 3), Naples is exposed to tephra fall thicknesses of some decimeters, thereby exceeding the critical limit for roof collapse. Because of the total number of people living in Campi Flegrei and the city of Naples (ca. two million of inhabitants), the tephra fallout risk related to a plinian eruption of Campi Flegrei largely matches or exceeds the risk related to a similar eruption at Vesuvius.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Byunghyun Choi
2017-12-01
Full Text Available After the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, we observed that aftershocks tended to occur in a wide region after such a large earthquake. These aftershocks resulted in secondary damage or delayed rescue and recovery activities. In addition, it has been reported that there are regions where the intensity of the vibrations owing to the aftershocks was much stronger than those associated with the main shock. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the seismic risk associated with aftershocks. We used the data regarding aftershocks that was obtained from the Tohoku earthquake and various other historically large earthquakes. We investigated the spatial and temporal distribution of the aftershocks using the Gutenberg–Richter law and the modified Omori law. Subsequently, we previously proposed a probabilistic aftershock occurrence model that is expected to be useful to develop plans for recovery activities after future large earthquakes. In this study, the probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis is used to create aftershock hazard maps. We propose a hazard map focusing on the probability of aftershocks on the scale of the main shock for use with a recovery activity plan. Following the lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we focus on the simultaneous occurrence of tsunamis and aftershocks just after a great subduction earthquake. The probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis is used to derive load combination equations of the load and resistance factor design. This design is intended to simultaneously consider tsunamis and aftershocks for tsunami-resistant designs of tsunami evacuation buildings.
Probabilistic Mapping of Storm-induced Coastal Inundation for Climate Change Adaptation
Li, N.; Yamazaki, Y.; Roeber, V.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.
2016-02-01
Global warming is posing an imminent threat to coastal communities worldwide. Under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, we utilize hurricane events downscaled from a CMIP5 global climate model using the stochastic-deterministic method of Emanuel (2013, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.) in a pilot study to develop an inundation map with projected sea-level rise for the urban Honolulu coast. The downscaling is performed for a 20-year period from 2081 to 2100 to capture the ENSO, which strongly influences the hurricane activity in the Pacific. A total of 50 simulations provide a quasi-stationary dataset of 1000 years for probabilistic analysis of the flood hazards toward the end of the century. We utilize the meta-model Hakou, which is based on precomputed hurricane scenarios using ADCIRC, SWAN, and a 1D Boussinesq model (Kennedy et al., 2012, Ocean Modelling), to estimate the annual maximum inundation along the project coastline at the present sea level. Screening of the preliminary results identifies the most severe three events for detailed inundation modeling using the package of Li et al. (2014, Ocean Modelling) at the projected sea level. For each event, the third generation spectral model WAVEWATCH III of Tolman (2008, Ocean Modelling) provides the hurricane waves and the circulation model NEOWAVE of Yamazaki et al. (2009, 2011, Int. J. Num. Meth. Fluids) computes the surge using a system of telescopic nested grids from the open ocean to the project coastline. The output defines the boundary conditions and initial still-water elevation for computation of phase-resolving surf-zone and inundation processes using the 2D Boussinesq model of Roeber and Cheung (2012, Coastal Engineering). Each computed inundation event corresponds to an annual maximum, and with 1000 years of data, has an occurrence probability of 0.1% in a given year. Barring the tail of the distribution, aggregation of the three computed events allow delineation of the inundation zone with annual exceedance probability
Mastrolorenzo, G.; Pappalardo, L.; Troise, C.; Panizza, A.; de Natale, G.
2005-05-01
Integrated volcanological-probabilistic approaches has been used in order to simulate pyroclastic density currents and fallout and produce hazard maps for Campi Flegrei and Somma Vesuvius areas. On the basis of the analyses of all types of pyroclastic flows, surges, secondary pyroclastic density currents and fallout events occurred in the volcanological history of the two volcanic areas and the evaluation of probability for each type of events, matrixs of input parameters for a numerical simulation have been performed. The multi-dimensional input matrixs include the main controlling parameters of the pyroclasts transport and deposition dispersion, as well as the set of possible eruptive vents used in the simulation program. Probabilistic hazard maps provide of each points of campanian area, the yearly probability to be interested by a given event with a given intensity and resulting demage. Probability of a few events in one thousand years are typical of most areas around the volcanoes whitin a range of ca 10 km, including Neaples. Results provide constrains for the emergency plans in Neapolitan area.
Measuring the Uncertainty of Probabilistic Maps Representing Human Motion for Indoor Navigation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Susanna Kaiser
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Indoor navigation and mapping have recently become an important field of interest for researchers because global navigation satellite systems (GNSS are very often unavailable inside buildings. FootSLAM, a SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping algorithm for pedestrians based on step measurements, addresses the indoor mapping and positioning problem and can provide accurate positioning in many structured indoor environments. In this paper, we investigate how to compare FootSLAM maps via two entropy metrics. Since collaborative FootSLAM requires the alignment and combination of several individual FootSLAM maps, we also investigate measures that help to align maps that partially overlap. We distinguish between the map entropy conditioned on the sequence of pedestrian’s poses, which is a measure of the uncertainty of the estimated map, and the entropy rate of the pedestrian’s steps conditioned on the history of poses and conditioned on the estimated map. Because FootSLAM maps are built on a hexagon grid, the entropy and relative entropy metrics are derived for the special case of hexagonal transition maps. The entropy gives us a new insight on the performance of FootSLAM’s map estimation process.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Madankan, R. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pouget, S. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Bursik, M. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Dehn, J. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States); Jones, M. [Center for Computational Research, University at Buffalo (United States); Patra, A. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pavolonis, M. [NOAA-NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research (United States); Pitman, E.B. [Department of Mathematics, University at Buffalo (United States); Singh, T. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Webley, P. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States)
2014-08-15
Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This paper presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.
Choi, Hi-Jae; Zilles, Karl; Mohlberg, Hartmut; Schleicher, Axel; Fink, Gereon R.; Armstrong, Este; Amunts, Katrin
2008-01-01
Anatomical studies in the macaque cortex and functional imaging studies in humans have demonstrated the existence of different cortical areas within the IntraParietal Sulcus (IPS). Such functional segregation, however, does not correlate with presently available architectonic maps of the human brain. This is particularly true for the classical Brodmann map, which is still widely used as an anatomical reference in functional imaging studies. The aim of this cytoarchitectonic mapping study was to use previously defined algorithms to determine whether consistent regions and borders can be found within the cortex of the anterior IPS in a population of ten postmortem human brains. Two areas, the human IntraParietal area 1 (hIP1) and the human IntraParietal area 2 (hIP2), were delineated in serial histological sections of the anterior, lateral bank of the human IPS. The region hIP1 is located posterior and medial to hIP2, and the former is always within the depths of the IPS. The latter, on the other hand, sometimes reaches the free surface of the superior parietal lobule. The delineations were registered to standard reference space, and probabilistic maps were calculated, thereby quantifying the intersubject variability in location and extent of both areas. In the future, they can be a tool in analyzing structure – function relationships and a basis for determining degrees of homology in the IPS among anthropoid primates. We conclude that the human intraparietal sulcus has a finer grained parcellation than shown in Brodmann’s map. PMID:16432904
Chen, Kevin T; Izquierdo-Garcia, David; Poynton, Clare B; Chonde, Daniel B; Catana, Ciprian
2017-03-01
To propose an MR-based method for generating continuous-valued head attenuation maps and to assess its accuracy and reproducibility. Demonstrating that novel MR-based photon attenuation correction methods are both accurate and reproducible is essential prior to using them routinely in research and clinical studies on integrated PET/MR scanners. Continuous-valued linear attenuation coefficient maps ("μ-maps") were generated by combining atlases that provided the prior probability of voxel positions belonging to a certain tissue class (air, soft tissue, or bone) and an MR intensity-based likelihood classifier to produce posterior probability maps of tissue classes. These probabilities were used as weights to generate the μ-maps. The accuracy of this probabilistic atlas-based continuous-valued μ-map ("PAC-map") generation method was assessed by calculating the voxel-wise absolute relative change (RC) between the MR-based and scaled CT-based attenuation-corrected PET images. To assess reproducibility, we performed pair-wise comparisons of the RC values obtained from the PET images reconstructed using the μ-maps generated from the data acquired at three time points. The proposed method produced continuous-valued μ-maps that qualitatively reflected the variable anatomy in patients with brain tumor and agreed well with the scaled CT-based μ-maps. The absolute RC comparing the resulting PET volumes was 1.76 ± 2.33 %, quantitatively demonstrating that the method is accurate. Additionally, we also showed that the method is highly reproducible, the mean RC value for the PET images reconstructed using the μ-maps obtained at the three visits being 0.65 ± 0.95 %. Accurate and highly reproducible continuous-valued head μ-maps can be generated from MR data using a probabilistic atlas-based approach.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chen, Kevin T. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Athinoula A. Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Charlestown, MA (United States); Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Division of Health Sciences and Technology, Cambridge, MA (United States); Izquierdo-Garcia, David; Catana, Ciprian [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Athinoula A. Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Charlestown, MA (United States); Poynton, Clare B. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Athinoula A. Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Charlestown, MA (United States); Massachusetts General Hospital, Department of Psychiatry, Boston, MA (United States); University of California, San Francisco, Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, San Francisco, CA (United States); Chonde, Daniel B. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Athinoula A. Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Charlestown, MA (United States); Harvard University, Program in Biophysics, Cambridge, MA (United States)
2017-03-15
To propose an MR-based method for generating continuous-valued head attenuation maps and to assess its accuracy and reproducibility. Demonstrating that novel MR-based photon attenuation correction methods are both accurate and reproducible is essential prior to using them routinely in research and clinical studies on integrated PET/MR scanners. Continuous-valued linear attenuation coefficient maps (''μ-maps'') were generated by combining atlases that provided the prior probability of voxel positions belonging to a certain tissue class (air, soft tissue, or bone) and an MR intensity-based likelihood classifier to produce posterior probability maps of tissue classes. These probabilities were used as weights to generate the μ-maps. The accuracy of this probabilistic atlas-based continuous-valued μ-map (''PAC-map'') generation method was assessed by calculating the voxel-wise absolute relative change (RC) between the MR-based and scaled CT-based attenuation-corrected PET images. To assess reproducibility, we performed pair-wise comparisons of the RC values obtained from the PET images reconstructed using the μ-maps generated from the data acquired at three time points. The proposed method produced continuous-valued μ-maps that qualitatively reflected the variable anatomy in patients with brain tumor and agreed well with the scaled CT-based μ-maps. The absolute RC comparing the resulting PET volumes was 1.76 ± 2.33 %, quantitatively demonstrating that the method is accurate. Additionally, we also showed that the method is highly reproducible, the mean RC value for the PET images reconstructed using the μ-maps obtained at the three visits being 0.65 ± 0.95 %. Accurate and highly reproducible continuous-valued head μ-maps can be generated from MR data using a probabilistic atlas-based approach. (orig.)
Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.
2015-03-01
A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline
Probabilistic change mapping from airborne LiDAR for post-disaster damage assessment
Jalobeanu, A.; Runyon, S. C.; Kruse, F. A.
2013-12-01
When both pre- and post-event LiDAR point clouds are available, change detection can be performed to identify areas that were most affected by a disaster event, and to obtain a map of quantitative changes in terms of height differences. In the case of earthquakes in built-up areas for instance, first responders can use a LiDAR change map to help prioritize search and recovery efforts. The main challenge consists of producing reliable change maps, robust to collection conditions, free of processing artifacts (due for instance to triangulation or gridding), and taking into account the various sources of uncertainty. Indeed, datasets acquired within a few years interval are often of different point density (sometimes an order of magnitude higher for recent data), different acquisition geometries, and very likely suffer from georeferencing errors and geometric discrepancies. All these differences might not be important for producing maps from each dataset separately, but they are crucial when performing change detection. We have developed a novel technique for the estimation of uncertainty maps from the LiDAR point clouds, using Bayesian inference, treating all variables as random. The main principle is to grid all points on a common grid before attempting any comparison, as working directly with point clouds is cumbersome and time consuming. A non-parametric approach based on local linear regression was implemented, assuming a locally linear model for the surface. This enabled us to derive error bars on gridded elevations, and then elevation differences. In this way, a map of statistically significant changes could be computed - whereas a deterministic approach would not allow testing of the significance of differences between the two datasets. This approach allowed us to take into account not only the observation noise (due to ranging, position and attitude errors) but also the intrinsic roughness of the observed surfaces occurring when scanning vegetation. As only
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tahmasebi, Amir M.; Mareckova, Klara; Artiges, Eric; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J.; Loth, Eva; Schumann, Gunter; Bruehl, Ruediger; Ittermann, Bernd; Buchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia J.; Flor, Herta; Strohle, Andreas; Garavan, Hugh; Gallinat, Jurgen; Heinz, Andreas; Poline, Jean-Baptiste; Rietschel, Marcella; Smolka, Michael N.; Paus, Tomas
2012-01-01
Large-scale magnetic resonance (MR) studies of the human brain offer unique opportunities for identifying genetic and environmental factors shaping the human brain. Here, we describe a dataset collected in the context of a multi-centre study of the adolescent brain, namely the IMAGEN Study. We focus on one of the functional paradigms included in the project to probe the brain network underlying processing of ambiguous and angry faces. Using functional MR (fMRI) data collected in 1,110 adolescents, we constructed probabilistic maps of the neural network engaged consistently while viewing the ambiguous or angry faces; 21 brain regions responding to faces with high probability were identified. We were also able to address several methodological issues, including the minimal sample size yielding a stable location of a test region, namely the fusiform face area (FFA), as well as the effect of acquisition site (eight sites) and scanner (four manufacturers) on the location and magnitude of the fMRI response to faces in the FFA. Finally, we provided a comparison between male and female adolescents in terms of the effect sizes of sex differences in brain response to the ambiguous and angry faces in the 21 regions of interest. Overall, we found a stronger neural response to the ambiguous faces in several cortical regions, including the fusiform face area, in female (vs. male) adolescents, and a slightly stronger response to the angry faces in the amygdala of male (vs. female) adolescents. (authors)
Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio
2016-05-01
Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.
Moral García, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo
2014-05-01
Different bioclimatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this work we propose using the information obtained from 10 bioclimatic indices and variables (heliothermal index, HI, cool night index, CI, dryness index, DI, growing season temperature, GST, the Winkler index, WI, September mean thermal amplitude, MTA, annual precipitation, AP, precipitation during flowering, PDF, precipitation before flowering, PBF, and summer precipitation, SP) as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main bioclimatic indices which could influence on wine suitability, and utilize the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the bioclimatic indices or variables which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural suitability potential in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southewestern Spain, is shown. Keywords: Rasch model, bioclimatic indices, GIS.
Badde, Stephanie; Heed, Tobias; Röder, Brigitte
2016-04-01
To act upon a tactile stimulus its original skin-based, anatomical spatial code has to be transformed into an external, posture-dependent reference frame, a process known as tactile remapping. When the limbs are crossed, anatomical and external location codes are in conflict, leading to a decline in tactile localization accuracy. It is unknown whether this impairment originates from the integration of the resulting external localization response with the original, anatomical one or from a failure of tactile remapping in crossed postures. We fitted probabilistic models based on these diverging accounts to the data from three tactile localization experiments. Hand crossing disturbed tactile left-right location choices in all experiments. Furthermore, the size of these crossing effects was modulated by stimulus configuration and task instructions. The best model accounted for these results by integration of the external response mapping with the original, anatomical one, while applying identical integration weights for uncrossed and crossed postures. Thus, the model explained the data without assuming failures of remapping. Moreover, performance differences across tasks were accounted for by non-individual parameter adjustments, indicating that individual participants' task adaptation results from one common functional mechanism. These results suggest that remapping is an automatic and accurate process, and that the observed localization impairments in touch result from a cognitively controlled integration process that combines anatomically and externally coded responses.
POLARIS: A 30-meter probabilistic soil series map of the contiguous United States
Chaney, Nathaniel W; Wood, Eric F; McBratney, Alexander B; Hempel, Jonathan W; Nauman, Travis; Brungard, Colby W.; Odgers, Nathan P
2016-01-01
A new complete map of soil series probabilities has been produced for the contiguous United States at a 30 m spatial resolution. This innovative database, named POLARIS, is constructed using available high-resolution geospatial environmental data and a state-of-the-art machine learning algorithm (DSMART-HPC) to remap the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database. This 9 billion grid cell database is possible using available high performance computing resources. POLARIS provides a spatially continuous, internally consistent, quantitative prediction of soil series. It offers potential solutions to the primary weaknesses in SSURGO: 1) unmapped areas are gap-filled using survey data from the surrounding regions, 2) the artificial discontinuities at political boundaries are removed, and 3) the use of high resolution environmental covariate data leads to a spatial disaggregation of the coarse polygons. The geospatial environmental covariates that have the largest role in assembling POLARIS over the contiguous United States (CONUS) are fine-scale (30 m) elevation data and coarse-scale (~ 2 km) estimates of the geographic distribution of uranium, thorium, and potassium. A preliminary validation of POLARIS using the NRCS National Soil Information System (NASIS) database shows variable performance over CONUS. In general, the best performance is obtained at grid cells where DSMART-HPC is most able to reduce the chance of misclassification. The important role of environmental covariates in limiting prediction uncertainty suggests including additional covariates is pivotal to improving POLARIS' accuracy. This database has the potential to improve the modeling of biogeochemical, water, and energy cycles in environmental models; enhance availability of data for precision agriculture; and assist hydrologic monitoring and forecasting to ensure food and water security.
Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks
Haenni, Rolf; Wheeler, Gregory; Williamson, Jon; Andrews, Jill
2014-01-01
Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks presents a groundbreaking framework within which various approaches to probabilistic logic naturally fit. Additionally, the text shows how to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework.
Poynton, Clare B; Chen, Kevin T; Chonde, Daniel B; Izquierdo-Garcia, David; Gollub, Randy L; Gerstner, Elizabeth R; Batchelor, Tracy T; Catana, Ciprian
2014-01-01
We present a new MRI-based attenuation correction (AC) approach for integrated PET/MRI systems that combines both segmentation- and atlas-based methods by incorporating dual-echo ultra-short echo-time (DUTE) and T1-weighted (T1w) MRI data and a probabilistic atlas. Segmented atlases were constructed from CT training data using a leave-one-out framework and combined with T1w, DUTE, and CT data to train a classifier that computes the probability of air/soft tissue/bone at each voxel. This classifier was applied to segment the MRI of the subject of interest and attenuation maps (μ-maps) were generated by assigning specific linear attenuation coefficients (LACs) to each tissue class. The μ-maps generated with this "Atlas-T1w-DUTE" approach were compared to those obtained from DUTE data using a previously proposed method. For validation of the segmentation results, segmented CT μ-maps were considered to the "silver standard"; the segmentation accuracy was assessed qualitatively and quantitatively through calculation of the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). Relative change (RC) maps between the CT and MRI-based attenuation corrected PET volumes were also calculated for a global voxel-wise assessment of the reconstruction results. The μ-maps obtained using the Atlas-T1w-DUTE classifier agreed well with those derived from CT; the mean DSCs for the Atlas-T1w-DUTE-based μ-maps across all subjects were higher than those for DUTE-based μ-maps; the atlas-based μ-maps also showed a lower percentage of misclassified voxels across all subjects. RC maps from the atlas-based technique also demonstrated improvement in the PET data compared to the DUTE method, both globally as well as regionally.
Word and Number Reading in the Brain: Evidence from a Voxel-Based Lesion-Symptom Mapping Study
Piras, Fabrizio; Marangolo, Paola
2009-01-01
The high incidence of number transcoding deficits in aphasic subjects suggests there is a strong similarity between language and number domains. However, recent single case studies of subjects who showed a dissociation between word and number word transcoding led us to hypothesize that the two types of stimuli are represented independently in the…
Biesbroek, J Matthijs; van Zandvoort, Martine J E; Kappelle, L Jaap; Schoo, Linda; Kuijf, Hugo J; Velthuis, Birgitta K; Biessels, Geert Jan; Postma, Albert
2014-01-01
Recognition memory, that is, the ability to judge whether an item has been previously encountered in a particular context, depends on two factors: discriminability and criterion setting. Discriminability draws on memory processes while criterion setting (i.e., the application of a threshold
Biesbroek, J. Matthijs; van Zandvoort, Martine J E; Kappelle, L. Jaap; Schoo, Linda; Kuijf, Hugo J.; Velthuis, BK; Biessels, Geert Jan; Postma, Albert
2015-01-01
Recognition memory, that is, the ability to judge whether an item has been previously encountered in a particular context, depends on two factors: discriminability and criterion setting. Discriminability draws on memory processes while criterion setting (i.e., the application of a threshold
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pia Banerjee
2015-01-01
Conclusions: Our findings identify the key anatomic structures involved in language functioning in adult glioma patients using an innovative lesion analysis technique and suggest that expressive language abilities may be more task-dependent and distributed than receptive language abilities.
Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.
1997-01-01
textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these preferences are intuitively appealing they are difficult to reconcile with expected utility theory. Under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function, willingness to pay for probabilistic i...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Finn Verner; Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt
2001-01-01
This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs.......This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs....
Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.
1997-01-01
Probabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. These observations cannot be
P.P. Wakker (Peter); R.H. Thaler (Richard); A. Tversky (Amos)
1997-01-01
textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these
Chevallier, Frédéric; Broquet, Grégoire; Pierangelo, Clémence; Crisp, David
2017-07-01
The column-average dry air-mole fraction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (XCO2) is measured by scattered satellite measurements like those from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). We show that global continuous maps of XCO2 (corresponding to level 3 of the satellite data) at daily or coarser temporal resolution can be inferred from these data with a Kalman filter built on a model of persistence. Our application of this approach on 2 years of OCO-2 retrievals indicates that the filter provides better information than a climatology of XCO2 at both daily and monthly scales. Provided that the assigned observation uncertainty statistics are tuned in each grid cell of the XCO2 maps from an objective method (based on consistency diagnostics), the errors predicted by the filter at daily and monthly scales represent the true error statistics reasonably well, except for a bias in the high latitudes of the winter hemisphere and a lack of resolution (i.e., a too small discrimination skill) of the predicted error standard deviations. Due to the sparse satellite sampling, the broad-scale patterns of XCO2 described by the filter seem to lag behind the real signals by a few weeks. Finally, the filter offers interesting insights into the quality of the retrievals, both in terms of random and systematic errors.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Yong Il; Im, Hyung Jun; Paeng, Jin Chul; Lee, Jae Sung; Eo, Jae Seon; Kim, Dong Hyun; Kim, Euishin E.; Kang, Keon Wook; Chung, June Key; Lee Dong Soo
2012-01-01
18 F FP CIT positron emission tomography (PET) is an effective imaging for dopamine transporters. In usual clinical practice, 18 F FP CIT PET is analyzed visually or quantified using manual delineation of a volume of interest (VOI) fir the stratum. in this study, we suggested and validated two simple quantitative methods based on automatic VOI delineation using statistical probabilistic anatomical mapping (SPAM) and isocontour margin setting. Seventy five 18 F FP CIT images acquired in routine clinical practice were used for this study. A study-specific image template was made and the subject images were normalized to the template. afterwards, uptakes in the striatal regions and cerebellum were quantified using probabilistic VOI based on SPAM. A quantitative parameter, Q SPAM, was calculated to simulate binding potential. additionally, the functional volume of each striatal region and its uptake were measured in automatically delineated VOI using isocontour margin setting. Uptake volume product(Q UVP) was calculated for each striatal region. Q SPAMa nd Q UVPw as calculated for each visual grading and the influence of cerebral atrophy on the measurements was tested. Image analyses were successful in all the cases. Both the Q SPAMa nd Q UVPw ere significantly different according to visual grading (0.001). The agreements of Q UVPa nd Q SPAMw ith visual grading were slight to fair for the caudate nucleus (K= 0.421 and 0.291, respectively) and good to prefect to the putamen (K=0.663 and 0.607, respectively). Also, Q SPAMa nd Q UVPh ad a significant correlation with each other (0.001). Cerebral atrophy made a significant difference in Q SPAMa nd Q UVPo f the caudate nuclei regions with decreased 18 F FP CIT uptake. Simple quantitative measurements of Q SPAMa nd Q UVPs howed acceptable agreement with visual grad-ing. although Q SPAMi n some group may be influenced by cerebral atrophy, these simple methods are expected to be effective in the quantitative analysis of F FP
Bod, R.; Heine, B.; Narrog, H.
2010-01-01
Probabilistic linguistics takes all linguistic evidence as positive evidence and lets statistics decide. It allows for accurate modelling of gradient phenomena in production and perception, and suggests that rule-like behaviour is no more than a side effect of maximizing probability. This chapter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, H. F.
This chapter describes how partial safety factors can be used in design of vertical wall breakwaters and an example of a code format is presented. The partial safety factors are calibrated on a probabilistic basis. The code calibration process used to calibrate some of the partial safety factors...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jennifer N. Hird
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Modern advances in cloud computing and machine-leaning algorithms are shifting the manner in which Earth-observation (EO data are used for environmental monitoring, particularly as we settle into the era of free, open-access satellite data streams. Wetland delineation represents a particularly worthy application of this emerging research trend, since wetlands are an ecologically important yet chronically under-represented component of contemporary mapping and monitoring programs, particularly at the regional and national levels. Exploiting Google Earth Engine and R Statistical software, we developed a workflow for predicting the probability of wetland occurrence using a boosted regression tree machine-learning framework applied to digital topographic and EO data. Working in a 13,700 km2 study area in northern Alberta, our best models produced excellent results, with AUC (area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve values of 0.898 and explained-deviance values of 0.708. Our results demonstrate the central role of high-quality topographic variables for modeling wetland distribution at regional scales. Including optical and/or radar variables into the workflow substantially improved model performance, though optical data performed slightly better. Converting our wetland probability-of-occurrence model into a binary Wet-Dry classification yielded an overall accuracy of 85%, which is virtually identical to that derived from the Alberta Merged Wetland Inventory (AMWI: the contemporary inventory used by the Government of Alberta. However, our workflow contains several key advantages over that used to produce the AMWI, and provides a scalable foundation for province-wide monitoring initiatives.
Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks
Haenni, R.; Romeijn, J.-W.; Wheeler, G.; Williamson, J.
2009-01-01
While in principle probabilistic logics might be applied to solve a range of problems, in practice they are rarely applied at present. This is perhaps because they seem disparate, complicated, and computationally intractable. However, we shall argue in this programmatic paper that several approaches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Seong-Jang; Kim, In-Ju; Kim, Yong-Ki; Kim, Dong-Soo; Park, Kyung-Pil
2007-01-01
Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) and statistical probabilistic anatomical mapping (SPAM) were applied to basal/acetazolamide Tc-99m ECD brain perfusion SPECT images in patients with middle cerebral artery (MCA) stenosis to assess the efficacy of endovascular stenting of the MCA. Enrolled in the study were 11 patients (8 men and 3 women, mean age 54.2 ± 6.2 years) who had undergone endovascular stent placement for MCA stenosis. Using SPM and SPAM analyses, we compared the number of significant voxels and cerebral counts in basal and acetazolamide SPECT images before and after stenting, and assessed the perfusion changes and cerebral vascular reserve index (CVRI). The numbers of hypoperfusion voxels in SPECT images were decreased from 10,083 ± 8,326 to 4,531 ± 5,091 in basal images (P 0.0317) and from 13,398 ± 14,222 to 7,699 ± 10,199 in acetazolamide images (P = 0.0142) after MCA stenting. On SPAM analysis, the increases in cerebral counts were significant in acetazolamide images (90.9 ± 2.2 to 93.5 ± 2.3, P = 0.0098) but not in basal images (91 ± 2.7 to 92 ± 2.6, P = 0.1602). The CVRI also showed a statistically significant increase from before stenting (median 0.32; 95% CI -2.19-2.37) to after stenting (median 1.59; 95% CI -0.85-4.16; P = 0.0068). This study revealed the usefulness of voxel-based analysis of basal/acetazolamide brain perfusion SPECT after MCA stent placement. This study showed that SPM and SPAM analyses of basal/acetazolamide Tc-99m brain SPECT could be used to evaluate the short-term hemodynamic efficacy of successful MCA stent placement. (orig.)
Probabilistic liver atlas construction.
Dura, Esther; Domingo, Juan; Ayala, Guillermo; Marti-Bonmati, Luis; Goceri, E
2017-01-13
Anatomical atlases are 3D volumes or shapes representing an organ or structure of the human body. They contain either the prototypical shape of the object of interest together with other shapes representing its statistical variations (statistical atlas) or a probability map of belonging to the object (probabilistic atlas). Probabilistic atlases are mostly built with simple estimations only involving the data at each spatial location. A new method for probabilistic atlas construction that uses a generalized linear model is proposed. This method aims to improve the estimation of the probability to be covered by the liver. Furthermore, all methods to build an atlas involve previous coregistration of the sample of shapes available. The influence of the geometrical transformation adopted for registration in the quality of the final atlas has not been sufficiently investigated. The ability of an atlas to adapt to a new case is one of the most important quality criteria that should be taken into account. The presented experiments show that some methods for atlas construction are severely affected by the previous coregistration step. We show the good performance of the new approach. Furthermore, results suggest that extremely flexible registration methods are not always beneficial, since they can reduce the variability of the atlas and hence its ability to give sensible values of probability when used as an aid in segmentation of new cases.
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis
Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.
2006-12-01
thousands of earthquake scenarios. We have carried out preliminary tsunami hazard calculations for different return periods for western North America and Hawaii based on thousands of earthquake scenarios around the Pacific rim and along the coast of North America. We will present tsunami hazard maps for several return periods and also discuss how to use these results for probabilistic inundation and runup mapping. Our knowledge of certain types of tsunami sources is very limited (e.g. submarine landslides), but a probabilistic framework for tsunami hazard evaluation can include even such sources and their uncertainties and present the overall hazard in a meaningful and consistent way.
Akazawa, Kentaro; Chang, Linda; Yamakawa, Robyn; Hayama, Sara; Buchthal, Steven; Alicata, Daniel; Andres, Tamara; Castillo, Deborrah; Oishi, Kumiko; Skranes, Jon; Ernst, Thomas; Oishi, Kenichi
2016-03-01
Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) has been widely used to investigate the development of the neonatal and infant brain, and deviations related to various diseases or medical conditions like preterm birth. In this study, we created a probabilistic map of fiber pathways with known associated functions, on a published neonatal multimodal atlas. The pathways-of-interest include the superficial white matter (SWM) fibers just beneath the specific cytoarchitectonically defined cortical areas, which were difficult to evaluate with existing DTI analysis methods. The Jülich cytoarchitectonic atlas was applied to define cortical areas related to specific brain functions, and the Dynamic Programming (DP) method was applied to delineate the white matter pathways traversing through the SWM. Probabilistic maps were created for pathways related to motor, somatosensory, auditory, visual, and limbic functions, as well as major white matter tracts, such as the corpus callosum, the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus, and the middle cerebellar peduncle, by delineating these structures in eleven healthy term-born neonates. In order to characterize maturation-related changes in diffusivity measures of these pathways, the probabilistic maps were then applied to DTIs of 49 healthy infants who were longitudinally scanned at three time-points, approximately five weeks apart. First, we investigated the normal developmental pattern based on 19 term-born infants. Next, we analyzed 30 preterm-born infants to identify developmental patterns related to preterm birth. Last, we investigated the difference in diffusion measures between these groups to evaluate the effects of preterm birth on the development of these functional pathways. Term-born and preterm-born infants both demonstrated a time-dependent decrease in diffusivity, indicating postnatal maturation in these pathways, with laterality seen in the corticospinal tract and the optic radiation. The comparison between term- and preterm
Probabilistic methods in combinatorial analysis
Sachkov, Vladimir N
2014-01-01
This 1997 work explores the role of probabilistic methods for solving combinatorial problems. These methods not only provide the means of efficiently using such notions as characteristic and generating functions, the moment method and so on but also let us use the powerful technique of limit theorems. The basic objects under investigation are nonnegative matrices, partitions and mappings of finite sets, with special emphasis on permutations and graphs, and equivalence classes specified on sequences of finite length consisting of elements of partially ordered sets; these specify the probabilist
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mikaël Cozic
2016-11-01
Full Text Available The modeling of awareness and unawareness is a significant topic in the doxastic logic literature, where it is usually tackled in terms of full belief operators. The present paper aims at a treatment in terms of partial belief operators. It draws upon the modal probabilistic logic that was introduced by Aumann (1999 at the semantic level, and then axiomatized by Heifetz and Mongin (2001. The paper embodies in this framework those properties of unawareness that have been highlighted in the seminal paper by Modica and Rustichini (1999. Their paper deals with full belief, but we argue that the properties in question also apply to partial belief. Our main result is a (soundness and completeness theorem that reunites the two strands—modal and probabilistic—of doxastic logic.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Ho Young; Lee, Jae Sung; Kim, Seung Ki; Wang, Kyu Chang; Cho, Byung Kyu; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul; Lee, Dong Soo [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2008-06-15
lobe of the hemispheres with EDAS and frontal EGS, the post-operative CVRI, and {delta}CVRI showed a significant difference between patients with a good and poor clinical outcome (p<0.05). In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, the {delta}CVRI and the post-operative CVRI of medial frontal gyrus on the hemispheres where EDAS with frontal EGS was performed were the significant predictive factors for the clinical outcome (p=0.002, p=0.015). With probabilistic map, we could objectively evaluate pre/post-operative hemodynamic changes of pediatric patients with moyamoya disease. Specifically the post-operative CVRI and the post-operative CVRI of medial frontal gyrus where EDAS with frontal EGS was done were the significant predictive factors for further clinical outcomes.
Campanella, Fabio; Shallice, Tim; Ius, Tamara; Fabbro, Franco; Skrap, Miran
2014-09-01
Patients affected by brain tumours may show behavioural and emotional regulation deficits, sometimes showing flattened affect and sometimes experiencing a true 'change' in personality. However, little evidence is available to the surgeon as to what changes are likely to occur with damage at specific sites, as previous studies have either relied on single cases or provided only limited anatomical specificity, mostly reporting associations rather than dissociations of symptoms. We investigated these aspects in patients undergoing surgery for the removal of cerebral tumours. We argued that many of the problems described can be ascribed to the onset of difficulties in one or more of the different levels of the process of mentalizing (i.e. abstracting and reflecting upon) emotion and intentions, which impacts on everyday behaviour. These were investigated in terms of (i) emotion recognition; (ii) Theory of Mind; (iii) alexithymia; and (iv) self-maturity (personality disorder). We hypothesized that temporo/limbic areas would be critical for processing emotion and intentions at a more perceptual level, while frontal lobe structures would be more critical when higher levels of mentalization/abstraction are required. We administered four different tasks, Task 1: emotion recognition of Ekman faces; Task 2: the Eyes Test (Theory of Mind); Task 3: Toronto Alexithymia Scale; and Task 4: Temperament and Character Inventory (a personality inventory), both immediately before and few days after the operation for the removal of brain tumours in a series of 71 patients (age range: 18-75 years; 33 female) with lesions located in the left or right frontal, temporal and parietal lobes. Lobe-based and voxel-based analysis confirmed that tasks requiring interpretation of emotions and intentions at more basic (less mentalized) levels (Tasks 1 and 2) were more affected by temporo/insular lesions, with emotion recognition (Task 1) being maximally impaired by anterior temporal and amygdala lesions and Task 2 (found to be a 'basic' Theory of Mind task involving only limited mentalization) being mostly impaired by posterior temporoparietal lesions. Tasks relying on higher-level mentalization (Tasks 3 and 4) were maximally affected by prefrontal lesions, with the alexithymia scale (Task 3) being mostly associated with anterior/medial lesions and the self-maturity measure (Task 4) with lateral prefrontal ones. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Harvey, Denise Y; Schnur, Tatiana T
2015-06-01
Naming pictures and matching words to pictures belonging to the same semantic category negatively affects language production and comprehension. By most accounts, semantic interference arises when accessing lexical representations in naming (e.g., Damian, Vigliocco, & Levelt, 2001) and semantic representations in comprehension (e.g., Forde & Humphreys, 1997). Further, damage to the left inferior frontal gyrus (LIFG), a region implicated in cognitive control, results in increasing semantic interference when items repeat across cycles in both language production and comprehension (Jefferies, Baker, Doran, & Lambon Ralph, 2007). This generates the prediction that the LIFG via white matter connections supports resolution of semantic interference arising from different loci (lexical vs semantic) in the temporal lobe. However, it remains unclear whether the cognitive and neural mechanisms that resolve semantic interference are the same across tasks. Thus, we examined which gray matter structures [using whole brain and region of interest (ROI) approaches] and white matter connections (using deterministic tractography) when damaged impact semantic interference and its increase across cycles when repeatedly producing and understanding words in 15 speakers with varying lexical-semantic deficits from left hemisphere stroke. We found that damage to distinct brain regions, the posterior versus anterior temporal lobe, was associated with semantic interference (collapsed across cycles) in naming and comprehension, respectively. Further, those with LIFG damage compared to those without exhibited marginally larger increases in semantic interference across cycles in naming but not comprehension. Lastly, the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus, connecting the LIFG with posterior temporal lobe, related to semantic interference in naming, whereas the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF), connecting posterior with anterior temporal regions related to semantic interference in comprehension. These neuroanatomical-behavioral findings have implications for models of the lexical-semantic language network by demonstrating that semantic interference in language production and comprehension involves different representations which differentially recruit a cognitive control mechanism for interference resolution. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Probabilistic biological network alignment.
Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer
2013-01-01
Interactions between molecules are probabilistic events. An interaction may or may not happen with some probability, depending on a variety of factors such as the size, abundance, or proximity of the interacting molecules. In this paper, we consider the problem of aligning two biological networks. Unlike existing methods, we allow one of the two networks to contain probabilistic interactions. Allowing interaction probabilities makes the alignment more biologically relevant at the expense of explosive growth in the number of alternative topologies that may arise from different subsets of interactions that take place. We develop a novel method that efficiently and precisely characterizes this massive search space. We represent the topological similarity between pairs of aligned molecules (i.e., proteins) with the help of random variables and compute their expected values. We validate our method showing that, without sacrificing the running time performance, it can produce novel alignments. Our results also demonstrate that our method identifies biologically meaningful mappings under a comprehensive set of criteria used in the literature as well as the statistical coherence measure that we developed to analyze the statistical significance of the similarity of the functions of the aligned protein pairs.
Ohba, Masamichi; Nohara, Daisuke; Kadokura, Shinji
2016-04-01
Severe storms or other extreme weather events can interrupt the spin of wind turbines in large scale that cause unexpected "wind ramp events". In this study, we present an application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) for climatological attribution of the wind ramp events and their probabilistic prediction. The SOM is an automatic data-mining clustering technique, which allows us to summarize a high-dimensional data space in terms of a set of reference vectors. The SOM is applied to analyze and connect the relationship between atmospheric patterns over Japan and wind power generation. SOM is employed on sea level pressure derived from the JRA55 reanalysis over the target area (Tohoku region in Japan), whereby a two-dimensional lattice of weather patterns (WPs) classified during the 1977-2013 period is obtained. To compare with the atmospheric data, the long-term wind power generation is reconstructed by using a high-resolution surface observation network AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System) in Japan. Our analysis extracts seven typical WPs, which are linked to frequent occurrences of wind ramp events. Probabilistic forecasts to wind power generation and ramps are conducted by using the obtained SOM. The probability are derived from the multiple SOM lattices based on the matching of output from TIGGE multi-model global forecast to the WPs on the lattices. Since this method effectively takes care of the empirical uncertainties from the historical data, wind power generation and ramp is probabilistically forecasted from the forecasts of global models. The predictability skill of the forecasts for the wind power generation and ramp events show the relatively good skill score under the downscaling technique. It is expected that the results of this study provides better guidance to the user community and contribute to future development of system operation model for the transmission grid operator.
Marques, R.; Amaral, P.; Zêzere, J. L.; Queiroz, G.; Goulart, C.
2009-04-01
Slope instability research and susceptibility mapping is a fundamental component of hazard assessment and is of extreme importance for risk mitigation, land-use management and emergency planning. Landslide susceptibility zonation has been actively pursued during the last two decades and several methodologies are still being improved. Among all the methods presented in the literature, indirect quantitative probabilistic methods have been extensively used. In this work different linear probabilistic methods, both bi-variate and multi-variate (Informative Value, Fuzzy Logic, Weights of Evidence and Logistic Regression), were used for the computation of the spatial probability of landslide occurrence, using the pixel as mapping unit. The methods used are based on linear relationships between landslides and 9 considered conditioning factors (altimetry, slope angle, exposition, curvature, distance to streams, wetness index, contribution area, lithology and land-use). It was assumed that future landslides will be conditioned by the same factors as past landslides in the study area. The presented work was developed for Ribeira Quente Valley (S. Miguel Island, Azores), a study area of 9,5 km2, mainly composed of volcanic deposits (ash and pumice lapilli) produced by explosive eruptions in Furnas Volcano. This materials associated to the steepness of the slopes (38,9% of the area has slope angles higher than 35°, reaching a maximum of 87,5°), make the area very prone to landslide activity. A total of 1.495 shallow landslides were mapped (at 1:5.000 scale) and included in a GIS database. The total affected area is 401.744 m2 (4,5% of the study area). Most slope movements are translational slides frequently evolving into debris-flows. The landslides are elongated, with maximum length generally equivalent to the slope extent, and their width normally does not exceed 25 m. The failure depth rarely exceeds 1,5 m and the volume is usually smaller than 700 m3. For modelling
Le, Quang A; Doctor, Jason N
2011-05-01
As quality-adjusted life years have become the standard metric in health economic evaluations, mapping health-profile or disease-specific measures onto preference-based measures to obtain quality-adjusted life years has become a solution when health utilities are not directly available. However, current mapping methods are limited due to their predictive validity, reliability, and/or other methodological issues. We employ probability theory together with a graphical model, called a Bayesian network, to convert health-profile measures into preference-based measures and to compare the results to those estimated with current mapping methods. A sample of 19,678 adults who completed both the 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12v2) and EuroQoL 5D (EQ-5D) questionnaires from the 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was split into training and validation sets. Bayesian networks were constructed to explore the probabilistic relationships between each EQ-5D domain and 12 items of the SF-12v2. The EQ-5D utility scores were estimated on the basis of the predicted probability of each response level of the 5 EQ-5D domains obtained from the Bayesian inference process using the following methods: Monte Carlo simulation, expected utility, and most-likely probability. Results were then compared with current mapping methods including multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations. The Bayesian networks consistently outperformed other mapping models in the overall sample (mean absolute error=0.077, mean square error=0.013, and R overall=0.802), in different age groups, number of chronic conditions, and ranges of the EQ-5D index. Bayesian networks provide a new robust and natural approach to map health status responses into health utility measures for health economic evaluations.
Kim, Yong-Il; Im, Hyung-Jun; Paeng, Jin Chul; Lee, Jae Sung; Eo, Jae Seon; Kim, Dong Hyun; Kim, Euishin E; Kang, Keon Wook; Chung, June-Key; Lee, Dong Soo
2012-12-01
(18)F-FP-CIT positron emission tomography (PET) is an effective imaging for dopamine transporters. In usual clinical practice, (18)F-FP-CIT PET is analyzed visually or quantified using manual delineation of a volume of interest (VOI) for the striatum. In this study, we suggested and validated two simple quantitative methods based on automatic VOI delineation using statistical probabilistic anatomical mapping (SPAM) and isocontour margin setting. Seventy-five (18)F-FP-CIT PET images acquired in routine clinical practice were used for this study. A study-specific image template was made and the subject images were normalized to the template. Afterwards, uptakes in the striatal regions and cerebellum were quantified using probabilistic VOI based on SPAM. A quantitative parameter, QSPAM, was calculated to simulate binding potential. Additionally, the functional volume of each striatal region and its uptake were measured in automatically delineated VOI using isocontour margin setting. Uptake-volume product (QUVP) was calculated for each striatal region. QSPAM and QUVP were compared with visual grading and the influence of cerebral atrophy on the measurements was tested. Image analyses were successful in all the cases. Both the QSPAM and QUVP were significantly different according to visual grading (P Simple quantitative measurements of QSPAM and QUVP showed acceptable agreement with visual grading. Although QSPAM in some group may be influenced by cerebral atrophy, these simple methods are expected to be effective in the quantitative analysis of (18)F-FP-CIT PET in usual clinical practice.
Schweizer, B
2005-01-01
Topics include special classes of probabilistic metric spaces, topologies, and several related structures, such as probabilistic normed and inner-product spaces. 1983 edition, updated with 3 new appendixes. Includes 17 illustrations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sunny Chauhan
2013-11-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we utilize the notion of common limit range property in Non-Archimedean Menger PM-spaces and prove some fixed point theorems for two pairs of weakly compatible mappings. Some illustrative examples are furnished to support our results. As an application to our main result, we present a common fixed point theorem for four finite families of self mappings. Our results improve and extend several known results existing in the literature.
Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples.
Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José
2008-10-01
We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples.
A Geometric Presentation of Probabilistic Satisfiability
Morales-Luna, Guillermo
2010-01-01
By considering probability distributions over the set of assignments the expected truth values assignment to propositional variables are extended through linear operators, and the expected truth values of the clauses at any given conjunctive form are also extended through linear maps. The probabilistic satisfiability problems are discussed in terms of the introduced linear extensions. The case of multiple truth values is also discussed.
Probabilistic Logical Characterization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hermanns, Holger; Parma, Augusto; Segala, Roberto
2011-01-01
Probabilistic automata exhibit both probabilistic and non-deterministic choice. They are therefore a powerful semantic foundation for modeling concurrent systems with random phenomena arising in many applications ranging from artificial intelligence, security, systems biology to performance...... modeling. Several variations of bisimulation and simulation relations have proved to be useful as means to abstract and compare different automata. This paper develops a taxonomy of logical characterizations of these relations on image-finite and image-infinite probabilistic automata....
Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting
Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.
2003-01-01
Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...
Conditional probabilistic population forecasting
Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang
2003-01-01
Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...
Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting
Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang
2004-01-01
Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...
Duplicate Detection in Probabilistic Data
Panse, Fabian; van Keulen, Maurice; de Keijzer, Ander; Ritter, Norbert
2009-01-01
Collected data often contains uncertainties. Probabilistic databases have been proposed to manage uncertain data. To combine data from multiple autonomous probabilistic databases, an integration of probabilistic data has to be performed. Until now, however, data integration approaches have focused
Scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hinrich, Jesper Løve; Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Riis, Nicolai Andre Brogaard
2017-01-01
Many data-driven approaches exist to extract neural representations of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, but most of them lack a proper probabilistic formulation. We propose a scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis (psFA) allowing spatially sparse maps, component...... pruning using automatic relevance determination (ARD) and subject specific heteroscedastic spatial noise modeling. For task-based and resting state fMRI, we show that the sparsity constraint gives rise to components similar to those obtained by group independent component analysis. The noise modeling...... shows that noise is reduced in areas typically associated with activation by the experimental design. The psFA model identifies sparse components and the probabilistic setting provides a natural way to handle parameter uncertainties. The variational Bayesian framework easily extends to more complex...
Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program
Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.
2010-01-01
NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.
Probabilistic programmable quantum processors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buzek, V.; Ziman, M.; Hillery, M.
2004-01-01
We analyze how to improve performance of probabilistic programmable quantum processors. We show how the probability of success of the probabilistic processor can be enhanced by using the processor in loops. In addition, we show that an arbitrary SU(2) transformations of qubits can be encoded in program state of a universal programmable probabilistic quantum processor. The probability of success of this processor can be enhanced by a systematic correction of errors via conditional loops. Finally, we show that all our results can be generalized also for qudits. (Abstract Copyright [2004], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)
Probabilistic Infinite Secret Sharing
Csirmaz, László
2013-01-01
The study of probabilistic secret sharing schemes using arbitrary probability spaces and possibly infinite number of participants lets us investigate abstract properties of such schemes. It highlights important properties, explains why certain definitions work better than others, connects this topic to other branches of mathematics, and might yield new design paradigms. A probabilistic secret sharing scheme is a joint probability distribution of the shares and the secret together with a colle...
Probabilistic Programming (Invited Talk)
Yang, Hongseok
2017-01-01
Probabilistic programming refers to the idea of using standard programming constructs for specifying probabilistic models from machine learning and statistics, and employing generic inference algorithms for answering various queries on these models, such as posterior inference and estimation of model evidence. Although this idea itself is not new and was, in fact, explored by several programming-language and statistics researchers in the early 2000, it is only in the last few years that proba...
Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations
Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; Van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen
2017-01-01
The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from
Growing hierarchical probabilistic self-organizing graphs.
López-Rubio, Ezequiel; Palomo, Esteban José
2011-07-01
Since the introduction of the growing hierarchical self-organizing map, much work has been done on self-organizing neural models with a dynamic structure. These models allow adjusting the layers of the model to the features of the input dataset. Here we propose a new self-organizing model which is based on a probabilistic mixture of multivariate Gaussian components. The learning rule is derived from the stochastic approximation framework, and a probabilistic criterion is used to control the growth of the model. Moreover, the model is able to adapt to the topology of each layer, so that a hierarchy of dynamic graphs is built. This overcomes the limitations of the self-organizing maps with a fixed topology, and gives rise to a faithful visualization method for high-dimensional data.
Probabilistic Extraction Of Vectors In PIV
Humphreys, William M., Jr.
1994-01-01
Probabilistic technique for extraction of velocity vectors in particle-image velocimetry (PIV) implemented with much less computation. Double-exposure photograph of particles in flow illuminated by sheet of light provides data on velocity field of flow. Photograph converted into video image then digitized and processed by computer into velocity-field data. Velocity vectors in interrogation region chosen from magnitude and angle histograms constructed from centroid map of region.
Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona
2016-06-01
Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a 'black box' research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.
Formalizing Probabilistic Safety Claims
Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.
2011-01-01
A safety claim for a system is a statement that the system, which is subject to hazardous conditions, satisfies a given set of properties. Following work by John Rushby and Bev Littlewood, this paper presents a mathematical framework that can be used to state and formally prove probabilistic safety claims. It also enables hazardous conditions, their uncertainties, and their interactions to be integrated into the safety claim. This framework provides a formal description of the probabilistic composition of an arbitrary number of hazardous conditions and their effects on system behavior. An example is given of a probabilistic safety claim for a conflict detection algorithm for aircraft in a 2D airspace. The motivation for developing this mathematical framework is that it can be used in an automated theorem prover to formally verify safety claims.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Mardare, Radu Iulian; Xue, Bingtian
2016-01-01
We introduce a version of the probabilistic µ-calculus (PMC) built on top of a probabilistic modal logic that allows encoding n-ary inequational conditions on transition probabilities. PMC extends previously studied calculi and we prove that, despite its expressiveness, it enjoys a series of good...... metaproperties. Firstly, we prove the decidability of satisﬁability checking by establishing the small model property. An algorithm for deciding the satisﬁability problem is developed. As a second major result, we provide a complete axiomatization for the alternation-free fragment of PMC. The completeness proof...
Probabilistic conditional independence structures
Studeny, Milan
2005-01-01
Probabilistic Conditional Independence Structures provides the mathematical description of probabilistic conditional independence structures; the author uses non-graphical methods of their description, and takes an algebraic approach.The monograph presents the methods of structural imsets and supermodular functions, and deals with independence implication and equivalence of structural imsets.Motivation, mathematical foundations and areas of application are included, and a rough overview of graphical methods is also given.In particular, the author has been careful to use suitable terminology, and presents the work so that it will be understood by both statisticians, and by researchers in artificial intelligence.The necessary elementary mathematical notions are recalled in an appendix.
Probabilistic approach to mechanisms
Sandler, BZ
1984-01-01
This book discusses the application of probabilistics to the investigation of mechanical systems. The book shows, for example, how random function theory can be applied directly to the investigation of random processes in the deflection of cam profiles, pitch or gear teeth, pressure in pipes, etc. The author also deals with some other technical applications of probabilistic theory, including, amongst others, those relating to pneumatic and hydraulic mechanisms and roller bearings. Many of the aspects are illustrated by examples of applications of the techniques under discussion.
Probabilistic systems coalgebraically: A survey
Sokolova, Ana
2011-01-01
We survey the work on both discrete and continuous-space probabilistic systems as coalgebras, starting with how probabilistic systems are modeled as coalgebras and followed by a discussion of their bisimilarity and behavioral equivalence, mentioning results that follow from the coalgebraic treatment of probabilistic systems. It is interesting to note that, for different reasons, for both discrete and continuous probabilistic systems it may be more convenient to work with behavioral equivalence than with bisimilarity. PMID:21998490
Confluence reduction for probabilistic systems
Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette
In this presentation we introduce a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We proved that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To
Bergstra, J.A.; Middelburg, C.A.
2015-01-01
We add probabilistic features to basic thread algebra and its extensions with thread-service interaction and strategic interleaving. Here, threads represent the behaviours produced by instruction sequences under execution and services represent the behaviours exhibited by the components of execution
Probabilistic simple sticker systems
Selvarajoo, Mathuri; Heng, Fong Wan; Sarmin, Nor Haniza; Turaev, Sherzod
2017-04-01
A model for DNA computing using the recombination behavior of DNA molecules, known as a sticker system, was introduced by by L. Kari, G. Paun, G. Rozenberg, A. Salomaa, and S. Yu in the paper entitled DNA computing, sticker systems and universality from the journal of Acta Informatica vol. 35, pp. 401-420 in the year 1998. A sticker system uses the Watson-Crick complementary feature of DNA molecules: starting from the incomplete double stranded sequences, and iteratively using sticking operations until a complete double stranded sequence is obtained. It is known that sticker systems with finite sets of axioms and sticker rules generate only regular languages. Hence, different types of restrictions have been considered to increase the computational power of sticker systems. Recently, a variant of restricted sticker systems, called probabilistic sticker systems, has been introduced [4]. In this variant, the probabilities are initially associated with the axioms, and the probability of a generated string is computed by multiplying the probabilities of all occurrences of the initial strings in the computation of the string. Strings for the language are selected according to some probabilistic requirements. In this paper, we study fundamental properties of probabilistic simple sticker systems. We prove that the probabilistic enhancement increases the computational power of simple sticker systems.
Visualizing Probabilistic Proof
Guerra-Pujol, Enrique
2015-01-01
The author revisits the Blue Bus Problem, a famous thought-experiment in law involving probabilistic proof, and presents simple Bayesian solutions to different versions of the blue bus hypothetical. In addition, the author expresses his solutions in standard and visual formats, i.e. in terms of probabilities and natural frequencies.
Memristive Probabilistic Computing
Alahmadi, Hamzah
2017-10-01
In the era of Internet of Things and Big Data, unconventional techniques are rising to accommodate the large size of data and the resource constraints. New computing structures are advancing based on non-volatile memory technologies and different processing paradigms. Additionally, the intrinsic resiliency of current applications leads to the development of creative techniques in computations. In those applications, approximate computing provides a perfect fit to optimize the energy efficiency while compromising on the accuracy. In this work, we build probabilistic adders based on stochastic memristor. Probabilistic adders are analyzed with respect of the stochastic behavior of the underlying memristors. Multiple adder implementations are investigated and compared. The memristive probabilistic adder provides a different approach from the typical approximate CMOS adders. Furthermore, it allows for a high area saving and design exibility between the performance and power saving. To reach a similar performance level as approximate CMOS adders, the memristive adder achieves 60% of power saving. An image-compression application is investigated using the memristive probabilistic adders with the performance and the energy trade-off.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Peiyuan; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
2008-01-01
This paper reviews the development of the probabilistic load flow (PLF) techniques. Applications of the PLF techniques in different areas of power system steady-state analysis are also discussed. The purpose of the review is to identify different available PLF techniques and their corresponding...
Transitive probabilistic CLIR models.
Kraaij, W.; de Jong, Franciska M.G.
2004-01-01
Transitive translation could be a useful technique to enlarge the number of supported language pairs for a cross-language information retrieval (CLIR) system in a cost-effective manner. The paper describes several setups for transitive translation based on probabilistic translation models. The
Probabilistic assessment of faults
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Foden, R.W.
1987-01-01
Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is the process by which the probability (or frequency of occurrence) of reactor fault conditions which could lead to unacceptable consequences is assessed. The basic objective of a PSA is to allow a judgement to be made as to whether or not the principal probabilistic requirement is satisfied. It also gives insights into the reliability of the plant which can be used to identify possible improvements. This is explained in the article. The scope of a PSA and the PSA performed by the National Nuclear Corporation (NNC) for the Heysham II and Torness AGRs and Sizewell-B PWR are discussed. The NNC methods for hazards, common cause failure and operator error are mentioned. (UK)
Probabilistic Model Development
Adam, James H., Jr.
2010-01-01
Objective: Develop a Probabilistic Model for the Solar Energetic Particle Environment. Develop a tool to provide a reference solar particle radiation environment that: 1) Will not be exceeded at a user-specified confidence level; 2) Will provide reference environments for: a) Peak flux; b) Event-integrated fluence; and c) Mission-integrated fluence. The reference environments will consist of: a) Elemental energy spectra; b) For protons, helium and heavier ions.
Geothermal probabilistic cost study
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Orren, L.H.; Ziman, G.M.; Jones, S.C.; Lee, T.K.; Noll, R.; Wilde, L.; Sadanand, V.
1981-08-01
A tool is presented to quantify the risks of geothermal projects, the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPCM). The GPCM model is used to evaluate a geothermal reservoir for a binary-cycle electric plant at Heber, California. Three institutional aspects of the geothermal risk which can shift the risk among different agents are analyzed. The leasing of geothermal land, contracting between the producer and the user of the geothermal heat, and insurance against faulty performance are examined. (MHR)
Probabilistic approaches to recommendations
Barbieri, Nicola; Ritacco, Ettore
2014-01-01
The importance of accurate recommender systems has been widely recognized by academia and industry, and recommendation is rapidly becoming one of the most successful applications of data mining and machine learning. Understanding and predicting the choices and preferences of users is a challenging task: real-world scenarios involve users behaving in complex situations, where prior beliefs, specific tendencies, and reciprocal influences jointly contribute to determining the preferences of users toward huge amounts of information, services, and products. Probabilistic modeling represents a robus
Belytschko, Ted; Wing, Kam Liu
1987-01-01
In the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM), finite element methods have been efficiently combined with second-order perturbation techniques to provide an effective method for informing the designer of the range of response which is likely in a given problem. The designer must provide as input the statistical character of the input variables, such as yield strength, load magnitude, and Young's modulus, by specifying their mean values and their variances. The output then consists of the mean response and the variance in the response. Thus the designer is given a much broader picture of the predicted performance than with simply a single response curve. These methods are applicable to a wide class of problems, provided that the scale of randomness is not too large and the probabilistic density functions possess decaying tails. By incorporating the computational techniques we have developed in the past 3 years for efficiency, the probabilistic finite element methods are capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. Sample results for an elastic-plastic ten-bar structure and an elastic-plastic plane continuum with a circular hole subject to cyclic loadings with the yield stress on the random field are given.
Some probabilistic aspects of fracture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomas, J.M.
1982-01-01
Some probabilistic aspects of fracture in structural and mechanical components are examined. The principles of fracture mechanics, material quality and inspection uncertainty are formulated into a conceptual and analytical framework for prediction of failure probability. The role of probabilistic fracture mechanics in a more global context of risk and optimization of decisions is illustrated. An example, where Monte Carlo simulation was used to implement a probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis, is discussed. (orig.)
Probabilistic Graph Layout for Uncertain Network Visualization.
Schulz, Christoph; Nocaj, Arlind; Goertler, Jochen; Deussen, Oliver; Brandes, Ulrik; Weiskopf, Daniel
2017-01-01
We present a novel uncertain network visualization technique based on node-link diagrams. Nodes expand spatially in our probabilistic graph layout, depending on the underlying probability distributions of edges. The visualization is created by computing a two-dimensional graph embedding that combines samples from the probabilistic graph. A Monte Carlo process is used to decompose a probabilistic graph into its possible instances and to continue with our graph layout technique. Splatting and edge bundling are used to visualize point clouds and network topology. The results provide insights into probability distributions for the entire network-not only for individual nodes and edges. We validate our approach using three data sets that represent a wide range of network types: synthetic data, protein-protein interactions from the STRING database, and travel times extracted from Google Maps. Our approach reveals general limitations of the force-directed layout and allows the user to recognize that some nodes of the graph are at a specific position just by chance.
Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hiemer, S.
2014-07-01
The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a
Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hiemer, S.
2014-01-01
The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a
Probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoertner, H.; Schuetz, B.
1982-09-01
For the purpose of assessing applicability and informativeness on risk-analysis methods in licencing procedures under atomic law, the choice of instruments for probabilistic analysis, the problems in and experience gained in their application, and the discussion of safety goals with respect to such instruments are of paramount significance. Naturally, such a complex field can only be dealt with step by step, making contribution relative to specific problems. The report on hand shows the essentials of a 'stocktaking' of systems relability studies in the licencing procedure under atomic law and of an American report (NUREG-0739) on 'Quantitative Safety Goals'. (orig.) [de
Probabilistic methods for physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cirier, G
2013-01-01
We present an asymptotic method giving a probability of presence of the iterated spots of R d by a polynomial function f. We use the well-known Perron Frobenius operator (PF) that lets certain sets and measure invariant by f. Probabilistic solutions can exist for the deterministic iteration. If the theoretical result is already known, here we quantify these probabilities. This approach seems interesting to use for computing situations when the deterministic methods don't run. Among the examined applications, are asymptotic solutions of Lorenz, Navier-Stokes or Hamilton's equations. In this approach, linearity induces many difficult problems, all of whom we have not yet resolved.
Quantum probability for probabilists
Meyer, Paul-André
1993-01-01
In recent years, the classical theory of stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations has been extended to a non-commutative set-up to develop models for quantum noises. The author, a specialist of classical stochastic calculus and martingale theory, tries to provide anintroduction to this rapidly expanding field in a way which should be accessible to probabilists familiar with the Ito integral. It can also, on the other hand, provide a means of access to the methods of stochastic calculus for physicists familiar with Fock space analysis.
Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization
Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.
2007-01-01
A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a
Probabilistic Structural Analysis of SSME Turbopump Blades: Probabilistic Geometry Effects
Nagpal, V. K.
1985-01-01
A probabilistic study was initiated to evaluate the precisions of the geometric and material properties tolerances on the structural response of turbopump blades. To complete this study, a number of important probabilistic variables were identified which are conceived to affect the structural response of the blade. In addition, a methodology was developed to statistically quantify the influence of these probabilistic variables in an optimized way. The identified variables include random geometric and material properties perturbations, different loadings and a probabilistic combination of these loadings. Influences of these probabilistic variables are planned to be quantified by evaluating the blade structural response. Studies of the geometric perturbations were conducted for a flat plate geometry as well as for a space shuttle main engine blade geometry using a special purpose code which uses the finite element approach. Analyses indicate that the variances of the perturbations about given mean values have significant influence on the response.
A General Framework for Probabilistic Characterizing Formulae
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sack, Joshua; Zhang, Lijun
2012-01-01
Recently, a general framework on characteristic formulae was proposed by Aceto et al. It offers a simple theory that allows one to easily obtain characteristic formulae of many non-probabilistic behavioral relations. Our paper studies their techniques in a probabilistic setting. We provide...... a general method for determining characteristic formulae of behavioral relations for probabilistic automata using fixed-point probability logics. We consider such behavioral relations as simulations and bisimulations, probabilistic bisimulations, probabilistic weak simulations, and probabilistic forward...
Probabilistic pathway construction.
Yousofshahi, Mona; Lee, Kyongbum; Hassoun, Soha
2011-07-01
Expression of novel synthesis pathways in host organisms amenable to genetic manipulations has emerged as an attractive metabolic engineering strategy to overproduce natural products, biofuels, biopolymers and other commercially useful metabolites. We present a pathway construction algorithm for identifying viable synthesis pathways compatible with balanced cell growth. Rather than exhaustive exploration, we investigate probabilistic selection of reactions to construct the pathways. Three different selection schemes are investigated for the selection of reactions: high metabolite connectivity, low connectivity and uniformly random. For all case studies, which involved a diverse set of target metabolites, the uniformly random selection scheme resulted in the highest average maximum yield. When compared to an exhaustive search enumerating all possible reaction routes, our probabilistic algorithm returned nearly identical distributions of yields, while requiring far less computing time (minutes vs. years). The pathways identified by our algorithm have previously been confirmed in the literature as viable, high-yield synthesis routes. Prospectively, our algorithm could facilitate the design of novel, non-native synthesis routes by efficiently exploring the diversity of biochemical transformations in nature. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Probabilistic risk assessment methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shinaishin, M.A.
1988-06-01
The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)
Probabilistic population aging
2017-01-01
We merge two methodologies, prospective measures of population aging and probabilistic population forecasts. We compare the speed of change and variability in forecasts of the old age dependency ratio and the prospective old age dependency ratio as well as the same comparison for the median age and the prospective median age. While conventional measures of population aging are computed on the basis of the number of years people have already lived, prospective measures are computed also taking account of the expected number of years they have left to live. Those remaining life expectancies change over time and differ from place to place. We compare the probabilistic distributions of the conventional and prospective measures using examples from China, Germany, Iran, and the United States. The changes over time and the variability of the prospective indicators are smaller than those that are observed in the conventional ones. A wide variety of new results emerge from the combination of methodologies. For example, for Germany, Iran, and the United States the likelihood that the prospective median age of the population in 2098 will be lower than it is today is close to 100 percent. PMID:28636675
Probabilistic cellular automata.
Agapie, Alexandru; Andreica, Anca; Giuclea, Marius
2014-09-01
Cellular automata are binary lattices used for modeling complex dynamical systems. The automaton evolves iteratively from one configuration to another, using some local transition rule based on the number of ones in the neighborhood of each cell. With respect to the number of cells allowed to change per iteration, we speak of either synchronous or asynchronous automata. If randomness is involved to some degree in the transition rule, we speak of probabilistic automata, otherwise they are called deterministic. With either type of cellular automaton we are dealing with, the main theoretical challenge stays the same: starting from an arbitrary initial configuration, predict (with highest accuracy) the end configuration. If the automaton is deterministic, the outcome simplifies to one of two configurations, all zeros or all ones. If the automaton is probabilistic, the whole process is modeled by a finite homogeneous Markov chain, and the outcome is the corresponding stationary distribution. Based on our previous results for the asynchronous case-connecting the probability of a configuration in the stationary distribution to its number of zero-one borders-the article offers both numerical and theoretical insight into the long-term behavior of synchronous cellular automata.
Quantum probabilistic logic programming
Balu, Radhakrishnan
2015-05-01
We describe a quantum mechanics based logic programming language that supports Horn clauses, random variables, and covariance matrices to express and solve problems in probabilistic logic. The Horn clauses of the language wrap random variables, including infinite valued, to express probability distributions and statistical correlations, a powerful feature to capture relationship between distributions that are not independent. The expressive power of the language is based on a mechanism to implement statistical ensembles and to solve the underlying SAT instances using quantum mechanical machinery. We exploit the fact that classical random variables have quantum decompositions to build the Horn clauses. We establish the semantics of the language in a rigorous fashion by considering an existing probabilistic logic language called PRISM with classical probability measures defined on the Herbrand base and extending it to the quantum context. In the classical case H-interpretations form the sample space and probability measures defined on them lead to consistent definition of probabilities for well formed formulae. In the quantum counterpart, we define probability amplitudes on Hinterpretations facilitating the model generations and verifications via quantum mechanical superpositions and entanglements. We cast the well formed formulae of the language as quantum mechanical observables thus providing an elegant interpretation for their probabilities. We discuss several examples to combine statistical ensembles and predicates of first order logic to reason with situations involving uncertainty.
Probabilistic risk assessment methodology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shinaishin, M A
1988-06-15
The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)
Topics in Probabilistic Judgment Aggregation
Wang, Guanchun
2011-01-01
This dissertation is a compilation of several studies that are united by their relevance to probabilistic judgment aggregation. In the face of complex and uncertain events, panels of judges are frequently consulted to provide probabilistic forecasts, and aggregation of such estimates in groups often yield better results than could have been made…
Probabilistic studies of accident sequences
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Villemeur, A.; Berger, J.P.
1986-01-01
For several years, Electricite de France has carried out probabilistic assessment of accident sequences for nuclear power plants. In the framework of this program many methods were developed. As the interest in these studies was increasing and as adapted methods were developed, Electricite de France has undertaken a probabilistic safety assessment of a nuclear power plant [fr
Compression of Probabilistic XML documents
Veldman, Irma
2009-01-01
Probabilistic XML (PXML) files resulting from data integration can become extremely large, which is undesired. For XML there are several techniques available to compress the document and since probabilistic XML is in fact (a special form of) XML, it might benefit from these methods even more. In
Probabilistic Structural Analysis Theory Development
Burnside, O. H.
1985-01-01
The objective of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project is to develop analysis techniques and computer programs for predicting the probabilistic response of critical structural components for current and future space propulsion systems. This technology will play a central role in establishing system performance and durability. The first year's technical activity is concentrating on probabilistic finite element formulation strategy and code development. Work is also in progress to survey critical materials and space shuttle mian engine components. The probabilistic finite element computer program NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) is being developed. The final probabilistic code will have, in the general case, the capability of performing nonlinear dynamic of stochastic structures. It is the goal of the approximate methods effort to increase problem solving efficiency relative to finite element methods by using energy methods to generate trial solutions which satisfy the structural boundary conditions. These approximate methods will be less computer intensive relative to the finite element approach.
Probabilistic escalation modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Korneliussen, G.; Eknes, M.L.; Haugen, K.; Selmer-Olsen, S. [Det Norske Veritas, Oslo (Norway)
1997-12-31
This paper describes how structural reliability methods may successfully be applied within quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as an alternative to traditional event tree analysis. The emphasis is on fire escalation in hydrocarbon production and processing facilities. This choice was made due to potential improvements over current QRA practice associated with both the probabilistic approach and more detailed modelling of the dynamics of escalating events. The physical phenomena important for the events of interest are explicitly modelled as functions of time. Uncertainties are represented through probability distributions. The uncertainty modelling enables the analysis to be simple when possible and detailed when necessary. The methodology features several advantages compared with traditional risk calculations based on event trees. (Author)
Probabilistic fracture finite elements
Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Lua, Y. J.
1991-05-01
The Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) is a promising method for estimating the fatigue life and inspection cycles for mechanical and structural components. The Probability Finite Element Method (PFEM), which is based on second moment analysis, has proved to be a promising, practical approach to handle problems with uncertainties. As the PFEM provides a powerful computational tool to determine first and second moment of random parameters, the second moment reliability method can be easily combined with PFEM to obtain measures of the reliability of the structural system. The method is also being applied to fatigue crack growth. Uncertainties in the material properties of advanced materials such as polycrystalline alloys, ceramics, and composites are commonly observed from experimental tests. This is mainly attributed to intrinsic microcracks, which are randomly distributed as a result of the applied load and the residual stress.
Probabilistic retinal vessel segmentation
Wu, Chang-Hua; Agam, Gady
2007-03-01
Optic fundus assessment is widely used for diagnosing vascular and non-vascular pathology. Inspection of the retinal vasculature may reveal hypertension, diabetes, arteriosclerosis, cardiovascular disease and stroke. Due to various imaging conditions retinal images may be degraded. Consequently, the enhancement of such images and vessels in them is an important task with direct clinical applications. We propose a novel technique for vessel enhancement in retinal images that is capable of enhancing vessel junctions in addition to linear vessel segments. This is an extension of vessel filters we have previously developed for vessel enhancement in thoracic CT scans. The proposed approach is based on probabilistic models which can discern vessels and junctions. Evaluation shows the proposed filter is better than several known techniques and is comparable to the state of the art when evaluated on a standard dataset. A ridge-based vessel tracking process is applied on the enhanced image to demonstrate the effectiveness of the enhancement filter.
Probabilistic sensory recoding.
Jazayeri, Mehrdad
2008-08-01
A hallmark of higher brain functions is the ability to contemplate the world rather than to respond reflexively to it. To do so, the nervous system makes use of a modular architecture in which sensory representations are dissociated from areas that control actions. This flexibility however necessitates a recoding scheme that would put sensory information to use in the control of behavior. Sensory recoding faces two important challenges. First, recoding must take into account the inherent variability of sensory responses. Second, it must be flexible enough to satisfy the requirements of different perceptual goals. Recent progress in theory, psychophysics, and neurophysiology indicate that cortical circuitry might meet these challenges by evaluating sensory signals probabilistically.
GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.
2005-12-01
The first stage of development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface (GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The first part has developed and others are developing now in this term. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within the limits of the possibility
GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.
2006-12-01
The development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface(GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within limits of the possibility
Probabilistic brains: knowns and unknowns
Pouget, Alexandre; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ma, Wei Ji; Latham, Peter E
2015-01-01
There is strong behavioral and physiological evidence that the brain both represents probability distributions and performs probabilistic inference. Computational neuroscientists have started to shed light on how these probabilistic representations and computations might be implemented in neural circuits. One particularly appealing aspect of these theories is their generality: they can be used to model a wide range of tasks, from sensory processing to high-level cognition. To date, however, these theories have only been applied to very simple tasks. Here we discuss the challenges that will emerge as researchers start focusing their efforts on real-life computations, with a focus on probabilistic learning, structural learning and approximate inference. PMID:23955561
Probabilistic Decision Graphs - Combining Verification and AI Techniques for Probabilistic Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2004-01-01
We adopt probabilistic decision graphs developed in the field of automated verification as a tool for probabilistic model representation and inference. We show that probabilistic inference has linear time complexity in the size of the probabilistic decision graph, that the smallest probabilistic ...
Probabilistic Open Set Recognition
Jain, Lalit Prithviraj
Real-world tasks in computer vision, pattern recognition and machine learning often touch upon the open set recognition problem: multi-class recognition with incomplete knowledge of the world and many unknown inputs. An obvious way to approach such problems is to develop a recognition system that thresholds probabilities to reject unknown classes. Traditional rejection techniques are not about the unknown; they are about the uncertain boundary and rejection around that boundary. Thus traditional techniques only represent the "known unknowns". However, a proper open set recognition algorithm is needed to reduce the risk from the "unknown unknowns". This dissertation examines this concept and finds existing probabilistic multi-class recognition approaches are ineffective for true open set recognition. We hypothesize the cause is due to weak adhoc assumptions combined with closed-world assumptions made by existing calibration techniques. Intuitively, if we could accurately model just the positive data for any known class without overfitting, we could reject the large set of unknown classes even under this assumption of incomplete class knowledge. For this, we formulate the problem as one of modeling positive training data by invoking statistical extreme value theory (EVT) near the decision boundary of positive data with respect to negative data. We provide a new algorithm called the PI-SVM for estimating the unnormalized posterior probability of class inclusion. This dissertation also introduces a new open set recognition model called Compact Abating Probability (CAP), where the probability of class membership decreases in value (abates) as points move from known data toward open space. We show that CAP models improve open set recognition for multiple algorithms. Leveraging the CAP formulation, we go on to describe the novel Weibull-calibrated SVM (W-SVM) algorithm, which combines the useful properties of statistical EVT for score calibration with one-class and binary
Probabilistic broadcasting of mixed states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Lvjun; Li Lvzhou; Wu Lihua; Zou Xiangfu; Qiu Daowen
2009-01-01
It is well known that the non-broadcasting theorem proved by Barnum et al is a fundamental principle of quantum communication. As we are aware, optimal broadcasting (OB) is the only method to broadcast noncommuting mixed states approximately. In this paper, motivated by the probabilistic cloning of quantum states proposed by Duan and Guo, we propose a new way for broadcasting noncommuting mixed states-probabilistic broadcasting (PB), and we present a sufficient condition for PB of mixed states. To a certain extent, we generalize the probabilistic cloning theorem from pure states to mixed states, and in particular, we generalize the non-broadcasting theorem, since the case that commuting mixed states can be exactly broadcast can be thought of as a special instance of PB where the success ratio is 1. Moreover, we discuss probabilistic local broadcasting (PLB) of separable bipartite states
Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.
Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J
2017-10-01
The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.
14th International Probabilistic Workshop
Taerwe, Luc; Proske, Dirk
2017-01-01
This book presents the proceedings of the 14th International Probabilistic Workshop that was held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic methods are currently of crucial importance for research and developments in the field of engineering, which face challenges presented by new materials and technologies and rapidly changing societal needs and values. Contemporary needs related to, for example, performance-based design, service-life design, life-cycle analysis, product optimization, assessment of existing structures and structural robustness give rise to new developments as well as accurate and practically applicable probabilistic and statistical engineering methods to support these developments. These proceedings are a valuable resource for anyone interested in contemporary developments in the field of probabilistic engineering applications.
Cumulative Dominance and Probabilistic Sophistication
Wakker, P.P.; Sarin, R.H.
2000-01-01
Machina & Schmeidler (Econometrica, 60, 1992) gave preference conditions for probabilistic sophistication, i.e. decision making where uncertainty can be expressed in terms of (subjective) probabilities without commitment to expected utility maximization. This note shows that simpler and more general
Probabilistic simulation of fermion paths
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhirov, O.V.
1989-01-01
Permutation symmetry of fermion path integral allows (while spin degrees of freedom are ignored) to use in its simulation any probabilistic algorithm, like Metropolis one, heat bath, etc. 6 refs., 2 tabs
Probabilistic modeling of timber structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro
2007-01-01
The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [Joint Committee of Structural Safety. Probabilistic Model Code, Internet...... Publication: www.jcss.ethz.ch; 2001] and of the COST action E24 ‘Reliability of Timber Structures' [COST Action E 24, Reliability of timber structures. Several meetings and Publications, Internet Publication: http://www.km.fgg.uni-lj.si/coste24/coste24.htm; 2005]. The present proposal is based on discussions...... and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for timber components. The recommended probabilistic model for these basic properties...
Probabilistically modeling lava flows with MOLASSES
Richardson, J. A.; Connor, L.; Connor, C.; Gallant, E.
2017-12-01
Modeling lava flows through Cellular Automata methods enables a computationally inexpensive means to quickly forecast lava flow paths and ultimate areal extents. We have developed a lava flow simulator, MOLASSES, that forecasts lava flow inundation over an elevation model from a point source eruption. This modular code can be implemented in a deterministic fashion with given user inputs that will produce a single lava flow simulation. MOLASSES can also be implemented in a probabilistic fashion where given user inputs define parameter distributions that are randomly sampled to create many lava flow simulations. This probabilistic approach enables uncertainty in input data to be expressed in the model results and MOLASSES outputs a probability map of inundation instead of a determined lava flow extent. Since the code is comparatively fast, we use it probabilistically to investigate where potential vents are located that may impact specific sites and areas, as well as the unconditional probability of lava flow inundation of sites or areas from any vent. We have validated the MOLASSES code to community-defined benchmark tests and to the real world lava flows at Tolbachik (2012-2013) and Pico do Fogo (2014-2015). To determine the efficacy of the MOLASSES simulator at accurately and precisely mimicking the inundation area of real flows, we report goodness of fit using both model sensitivity and the Positive Predictive Value, the latter of which is a Bayesian posterior statistic. Model sensitivity is often used in evaluating lava flow simulators, as it describes how much of the lava flow was successfully modeled by the simulation. We argue that the positive predictive value is equally important in determining how good a simulator is, as it describes the percentage of the simulation space that was actually inundated by lava.
A Methodology for Probabilistic Accident Management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Munteanu, Ion; Aldemir, Tunc
2003-01-01
While techniques have been developed to tackle different tasks in accident management, there have been very few attempts to develop an on-line operator assistance tool for accident management and none that can be found in the literature that uses probabilistic arguments, which are important in today's licensing climate. The state/parameter estimation capability of the dynamic system doctor (DSD) approach is combined with the dynamic event-tree generation capability of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology to address this issue. The DSD uses the cell-to-cell mapping technique for system representation that models the system evolution in terms of probability of transitions in time between sets of user-defined parameter/state variable magnitude intervals (cells) within a user-specified time interval (e.g., data sampling interval). The cell-to-cell transition probabilities are obtained from the given system model. The ISA follows the system dynamics in tree form and braches every time a setpoint for system/operator intervention is exceeded. The combined approach (a) can automatically account for uncertainties in the monitored system state, inputs, and modeling uncertainties through the appropriate choice of the cells, as well as providing a probabilistic measure to rank the likelihood of possible system states in view of these uncertainties; (b) allows flexibility in system representation; (c) yields the lower and upper bounds on the estimated values of state variables/parameters as well as their expected values; and (d) leads to fewer branchings in the dynamic event-tree generation. Using a simple but realistic pressurizer model, the potential use of the DSD-ISA methodology for on-line probabilistic accident management is illustrated
De la Sen, M.
2015-01-01
In the framework of complete probabilistic metric spaces and, in particular, in probabilistic Menger spaces, this paper investigates some relevant properties of convergence of sequences to probabilistic α-fuzzy fixed points under some types of probabilistic contractive conditions.
A Bayesian Network Approach to Ontology Mapping
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Pan, Rong; Ding, Zhongli; Yu, Yang; Peng, Yun
2005-01-01
This paper presents our ongoing effort on developing a principled methodology for automatic ontology mapping based on BayesOWL, a probabilistic framework we developed for modeling uncertainty in semantic web...
Metrics for Probabilistic Geometries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tosi, Alessandra; Hauberg, Søren; Vellido, Alfredo
2014-01-01
the distribution over mappings is given by a Gaussian process. We treat the corresponding latent variable model as a Riemannian manifold and we use the expectation of the metric under the Gaussian process prior to define interpolating paths and measure distance between latent points. We show how distances...
A probabilistic approach to delineating functional brain regions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kalbitzer, Jan; Svarer, Claus; Frokjaer, Vibe G
2009-01-01
The purpose of this study was to develop a reliable observer-independent approach to delineating volumes of interest (VOIs) for functional brain regions that are not identifiable on structural MR images. The case is made for the raphe nuclei, a collection of nuclei situated in the brain stem known...... to be densely packed with serotonin transporters (5-hydroxytryptaminic [5-HTT] system). METHODS: A template set for the raphe nuclei, based on their high content of 5-HTT as visualized in parametric (11)C-labeled 3-amino-4-(2-dimethylaminomethyl-phenylsulfanyl)-benzonitrile PET images, was created for 10...... healthy subjects. The templates were subsequently included in the region sets used in a previously published automatic MRI-based approach to create an observer- and activity-independent probabilistic VOI map. The probabilistic map approach was tested in a different group of 10 subjects and compared...
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rakesh Mohindra
2012-01-01
Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.
Probabilistic numerical discrimination in mice.
Berkay, Dilara; Çavdaroğlu, Bilgehan; Balcı, Fuat
2016-03-01
Previous studies showed that both human and non-human animals can discriminate between different quantities (i.e., time intervals, numerosities) with a limited level of precision due to their endogenous/representational uncertainty. In addition, other studies have shown that subjects can modulate their temporal categorization responses adaptively by incorporating information gathered regarding probabilistic contingencies into their time-based decisions. Despite the psychophysical similarities between the interval timing and nonverbal counting functions, the sensitivity of count-based decisions to probabilistic information remains an unanswered question. In the current study, we investigated whether exogenous probabilistic information can be integrated into numerosity-based judgments by mice. In the task employed in this study, reward was presented either after few (i.e., 10) or many (i.e., 20) lever presses, the last of which had to be emitted on the lever associated with the corresponding trial type. In order to investigate the effect of probabilistic information on performance in this task, we manipulated the relative frequency of different trial types across different experimental conditions. We evaluated the behavioral performance of the animals under models that differed in terms of their assumptions regarding the cost of responding (e.g., logarithmically increasing vs. no response cost). Our results showed for the first time that mice could adaptively modulate their count-based decisions based on the experienced probabilistic contingencies in directions predicted by optimality.
Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework
Strack, William C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.
2010-01-01
PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.
Probabilistic methods used in NUSS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fischer, J.; Giuliani, P.
1985-01-01
Probabilistic considerations are used implicitly or explicitly in all technical areas. In the NUSS codes and guides the two areas of design and siting are those where more use is made of these concepts. A brief review of the relevant documents in these two areas is made in this paper. It covers the documents where either probabilistic considerations are implied or where probabilistic approaches are recommended in the evaluation of situations and of events. In the siting guides the review mainly covers the area of seismic hydrological and external man-made events analysis, as well as some aspects of meteorological extreme events analysis. Probabilistic methods are recommended in the design guides but they are not made a requirement. There are several reasons for this, mainly lack of reliable data and the absence of quantitative safety limits or goals against which to judge the design analysis. As far as practical, engineering judgement should be backed up by quantitative probabilistic analysis. Examples are given and the concept of design basis as used in NUSS design guides is explained. (author)
Implications of probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.
1987-01-01
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)
Probabilistic coding of quantum states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grudka, Andrzej; Wojcik, Antoni; Czechlewski, Mikolaj
2006-01-01
We discuss the properties of probabilistic coding of two qubits to one qutrit and generalize the scheme to higher dimensions. We show that the protocol preserves the entanglement between the qubits to be encoded and the environment and can also be applied to mixed states. We present a protocol that enables encoding of n qudits to one qudit of dimension smaller than the Hilbert space of the original system and then allows probabilistic but error-free decoding of any subset of k qudits. We give a formula for the probability of successful decoding
Probabilistic reasoning in data analysis.
Sirovich, Lawrence
2011-09-20
This Teaching Resource provides lecture notes, slides, and a student assignment for a lecture on probabilistic reasoning in the analysis of biological data. General probabilistic frameworks are introduced, and a number of standard probability distributions are described using simple intuitive ideas. Particular attention is focused on random arrivals that are independent of prior history (Markovian events), with an emphasis on waiting times, Poisson processes, and Poisson probability distributions. The use of these various probability distributions is applied to biomedical problems, including several classic experimental studies.
Probabilistic Modeling of Timber Structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Köhler, J.D.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro
2005-01-01
The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) and of the COST action E24 'Reliability of Timber Structures'. The present...... proposal is based on discussions and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for components and connections. The recommended...
Convex sets in probabilistic normed spaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aghajani, Asadollah; Nourouzi, Kourosh
2008-01-01
In this paper we obtain some results on convexity in a probabilistic normed space. We also investigate the concept of CSN-closedness and CSN-compactness in a probabilistic normed space and generalize the corresponding results of normed spaces
Confluence Reduction for Probabilistic Systems (extended version)
Timmer, Mark; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis
2010-01-01
This paper presents a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We prove that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To support the
Probabilistic Role Models and the Guarded Fragment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2004-01-01
We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....
Probabilistic role models and the guarded fragment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2006-01-01
We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....
Making Probabilistic Relational Categories Learnable
Jung, Wookyoung; Hummel, John E.
2015-01-01
Theories of relational concept acquisition (e.g., schema induction) based on structured intersection discovery predict that relational concepts with a probabilistic (i.e., family resemblance) structure ought to be extremely difficult to learn. We report four experiments testing this prediction by investigating conditions hypothesized to facilitate…
Probabilistic inductive inference: a survey
Ambainis, Andris
2001-01-01
Inductive inference is a recursion-theoretic theory of learning, first developed by E. M. Gold (1967). This paper surveys developments in probabilistic inductive inference. We mainly focus on finite inference of recursive functions, since this simple paradigm has produced the most interesting (and most complex) results.
Probabilistic Approaches to Video Retrieval
Ianeva, Tzvetanka; Boldareva, L.; Westerveld, T.H.W.; Cornacchia, Roberto; Hiemstra, Djoerd; de Vries, A.P.
Our experiments for TRECVID 2004 further investigate the applicability of the so-called “Generative Probabilistic Models to video retrieval��?. TRECVID 2003 results demonstrated that mixture models computed from video shot sequences improve the precision of “query by examples��? results when
Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; Buslik, A.J.
1984-01-01
A procedures guide for the performance of probabilistic safety assessment has been prepared for interim use in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission programs. The probabilistic safety assessment studies performed are intended to produce probabilistic predictive models that can be used and extended by the utilities and by NRC to sharpen the focus of inquiries into a range of tissues affecting reactor safety. This guide addresses the determination of the probability (per year) of core damage resulting from accident initiators internal to the plant and from loss of offsite electric power. The scope includes analyses of problem-solving (cognitive) human errors, a determination of importance of the various core damage accident sequences, and an explicit treatment and display of uncertainties for the key accident sequences. Ultimately, the guide will be augmented to include the plant-specific analysis of in-plant processes (i.e., containment performance) and the risk associated with external accident initiators, as consensus is developed regarding suitable methodologies in these areas. This guide provides the structure of a probabilistic safety study to be performed, and indicates what products of the study are essential for regulatory decision making. Methodology is treated in the guide only to the extent necessary to indicate the range of methods which is acceptable; ample reference is given to alternative methodologies which may be utilized in the performance of the study
Sound Probabilistic #SAT with Projection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vladimir Klebanov
2016-10-01
Full Text Available We present an improved method for a sound probabilistic estimation of the model count of a boolean formula under projection. The problem solved can be used to encode a variety of quantitative program analyses, such as concerning security of resource consumption. We implement the technique and discuss its application to quantifying information flow in programs.
Probabilistic uniformities of uniform spaces
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rodriguez Lopez, J.; Romaguera, S.; Sanchis, M.
2017-07-01
The theory of metric spaces in the fuzzy context has shown to be an interesting area of study not only from a theoretical point of view but also for its applications. Nevertheless, it is usual to consider these spaces as classical topological or uniform spaces and there are not too many results about constructing fuzzy topological structures starting from a fuzzy metric. Maybe, H/{sup o}hle was the first to show how to construct a probabilistic uniformity and a Lowen uniformity from a probabilistic pseudometric /cite{Hohle78,Hohle82a}. His method can be directly translated to the context of fuzzy metrics and allows to characterize the categories of probabilistic uniform spaces or Lowen uniform spaces by means of certain families of fuzzy pseudometrics /cite{RL}. On the other hand, other different fuzzy uniformities can be constructed in a fuzzy metric space: a Hutton $[0,1]$-quasi-uniformity /cite{GGPV06}; a fuzzifiying uniformity /cite{YueShi10}, etc. The paper /cite{GGRLRo} gives a study of several methods of endowing a fuzzy pseudometric space with a probabilistic uniformity and a Hutton $[0,1]$-quasi-uniformity. In 2010, J. Guti/'errez Garc/'{/i}a, S. Romaguera and M. Sanchis /cite{GGRoSanchis10} proved that the category of uniform spaces is isomorphic to a category formed by sets endowed with a fuzzy uniform structure, i. e. a family of fuzzy pseudometrics satisfying certain conditions. We will show here that, by means of this isomorphism, we can obtain several methods to endow a uniform space with a probabilistic uniformity. Furthermore, these constructions allow to obtain a factorization of some functors introduced in /cite{GGRoSanchis10}. (Author)
A probabilistic Hu-Washizu variational principle
Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Besterfield, G. H.
1987-01-01
A Probabilistic Hu-Washizu Variational Principle (PHWVP) for the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) is presented. This formulation is developed for both linear and nonlinear elasticity. The PHWVP allows incorporation of the probabilistic distributions for the constitutive law, compatibility condition, equilibrium, domain and boundary conditions into the PFEM. Thus, a complete probabilistic analysis can be performed where all aspects of the problem are treated as random variables and/or fields. The Hu-Washizu variational formulation is available in many conventional finite element codes thereby enabling the straightforward inclusion of the probabilistic features into present codes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cindy Casteels
Full Text Available UNLABELLED: Automated voxel-based or pre-defined volume-of-interest (VOI analysis of small-animal PET data in mice is necessary for optimal information usage as the number of available resolution elements is limited. We have mapped metabolic ([(18F]FDG and dopamine transporter ([(18F]FECT small-animal PET data onto a 3D Magnetic Resonance Microscopy (MRM mouse brain template and aligned them in space to the Paxinos co-ordinate system. In this way, ligand-specific templates for sensitive analysis and accurate anatomical localization were created. Next, using a pre-defined VOI approach, test-retest and intersubject variability of various quantification methods were evaluated. Also, the feasibility of mouse brain statistical parametric mapping (SPM was explored for [(18F]FDG and [(18F]FECT imaging of 6-hydroxydopamine-lesioned (6-OHDA mice. METHODS: Twenty-three adult C57BL6 mice were scanned with [(18F]FDG and [(18F]FECT. Registrations and affine spatial normalizations were performed using SPM8. [(18F]FDG data were quantified using (1 an image-derived-input function obtained from the liver (cMRglc, using (2 standardized uptake values (SUVglc corrected for blood glucose levels and by (3 normalizing counts to the whole-brain uptake. Parametric [(18F]FECT binding images were constructed by reference to the cerebellum. Registration accuracy was determined using random simulated misalignments and vectorial mismatch determination. RESULTS: Registration accuracy was between 0.21-1.11 mm. Regional intersubject variabilities of cMRglc ranged from 15.4% to 19.2%, while test-retest values were between 5.0% and 13.0%. For [(18F]FECT uptake in the caudate-putamen, these values were 13.0% and 10.3%, respectively. Regional values of cMRglc positively correlated to SUVglc measured within the 45-60 min time frame (spearman r = 0.71. Next, SPM analysis of 6-OHDA-lesioned mice showed hypometabolism in the bilateral caudate-putamen and cerebellum, and an
Probabilistic costing of transmission services
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wijayatunga, P.D.C.
1992-01-01
Costing of transmission services of electrical utilities is required for transactions involving the transport of energy over a power network. The calculation of these costs based on Short Run Marginal Costing (SRMC) is preferred over other methods proposed in the literature due to its economic efficiency. In the research work discussed here, the concept of probabilistic costing of use-of-system based on SRMC which emerges as a consequence of the uncertainties in a power system is introduced using two different approaches. The first approach, based on the Monte Carlo method, generates a large number of possible system states by simulating random variables in the system using pseudo random number generators. A second approach to probabilistic use-of-system costing is proposed based on numerical convolution and multi-area representation of the transmission network. (UK)
Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Toft, H.S.
2010-01-01
Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability....... It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal...... reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated....
Advances in probabilistic risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hardung von Hardung, H.
1982-01-01
Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de
Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.
1980-08-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed
Probabilistic methods for rotordynamics analysis
Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T. Y.; Millwater, H. R.; Fossum, A. F.; Rheinfurth, M. H.
1991-01-01
This paper summarizes the development of the methods and a computer program to compute the probability of instability of dynamic systems that can be represented by a system of second-order ordinary linear differential equations. Two instability criteria based upon the eigenvalues or Routh-Hurwitz test functions are investigated. Computational methods based on a fast probability integration concept and an efficient adaptive importance sampling method are proposed to perform efficient probabilistic analysis. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the methods.
Probabilistic analysis and related topics
Bharucha-Reid, A T
1983-01-01
Probabilistic Analysis and Related Topics, Volume 3 focuses on the continuity, integrability, and differentiability of random functions, including operator theory, measure theory, and functional and numerical analysis. The selection first offers information on the qualitative theory of stochastic systems and Langevin equations with multiplicative noise. Discussions focus on phase-space evolution via direct integration, phase-space evolution, linear and nonlinear systems, linearization, and generalizations. The text then ponders on the stability theory of stochastic difference systems and Marko
Probabilistic analysis and related topics
Bharucha-Reid, A T
1979-01-01
Probabilistic Analysis and Related Topics, Volume 2 focuses on the integrability, continuity, and differentiability of random functions, as well as functional analysis, measure theory, operator theory, and numerical analysis.The selection first offers information on the optimal control of stochastic systems and Gleason measures. Discussions focus on convergence of Gleason measures, random Gleason measures, orthogonally scattered Gleason measures, existence of optimal controls without feedback, random necessary conditions, and Gleason measures in tensor products. The text then elaborates on an
Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.
1981-01-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)
Probabilistic finite elements for fracture mechanics
Besterfield, Glen
1988-01-01
The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) is developed for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM). A finite element which has the near crack-tip singular strain embedded in the element is used. Probabilistic distributions, such as expectation, covariance and correlation stress intensity factors, are calculated for random load, random material and random crack length. The method is computationally quite efficient and can be expected to determine the probability of fracture or reliability.
Probabilistic Harmonic Modeling of Wind Power Plants
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim H.; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg
2017-01-01
A probabilistic sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a grid-connected voltage-source converter is used to estimate harmonic emissions in a wind power plant (WPP) comprised of Type-IV wind turbines. The SD representation naturally partitioned converter generated voltage harmonics into those...... with deterministic phase and those with probabilistic phase. A case study performed on a string of ten 3MW, Type-IV wind turbines implemented in PSCAD was used to verify the probabilistic SD harmonic model. The probabilistic SD harmonic model can be employed in the planning phase of WPP projects to assess harmonic...
Students’ difficulties in probabilistic problem-solving
Arum, D. P.; Kusmayadi, T. A.; Pramudya, I.
2018-03-01
There are many errors can be identified when students solving mathematics problems, particularly in solving the probabilistic problem. This present study aims to investigate students’ difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It focuses on analyzing and describing students errors during solving the problem. This research used the qualitative method with case study strategy. The subjects in this research involve ten students of 9th grade that were selected by purposive sampling. Data in this research involve students’ probabilistic problem-solving result and recorded interview regarding students’ difficulties in solving the problem. Those data were analyzed descriptively using Miles and Huberman steps. The results show that students have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem and can be divided into three categories. First difficulties relate to students’ difficulties in understanding the probabilistic problem. Second, students’ difficulties in choosing and using appropriate strategies for solving the problem. Third, students’ difficulties with the computational process in solving the problem. Based on the result seems that students still have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It means that students have not able to use their knowledge and ability for responding probabilistic problem yet. Therefore, it is important for mathematics teachers to plan probabilistic learning which could optimize students probabilistic thinking ability.
Probabilistic Flood Defence Assessment Tools
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Slomp Robert
2016-01-01
institutions managing flood the defences, and not by just a small number of experts in probabilistic assessment. Therefore, data management and use of software are main issues that have been covered in courses and training in 2016 and 2017. All in all, this is the largest change in the assessment of Dutch flood defences since 1996. In 1996 probabilistic techniques were first introduced to determine hydraulic boundary conditions (water levels and waves (wave height, wave period and direction for different return periods. To simplify the process, the assessment continues to consist of a three-step approach, moving from simple decision rules, to the methods for semi-probabilistic assessment, and finally to a fully probabilistic analysis to compare the strength of flood defences with the hydraulic loads. The formal assessment results are thus mainly based on the fully probabilistic analysis and the ultimate limit state of the strength of a flood defence. For complex flood defences, additional models and software were developed. The current Hydra software suite (for policy analysis, formal flood defence assessment and design will be replaced by the model Ringtoets. New stand-alone software has been developed for revetments, geotechnical analysis and slope stability of the foreshore. Design software and policy analysis software, including the Delta model, will be updated in 2018. A fully probabilistic method results in more precise assessments and more transparency in the process of assessment and reconstruction of flood defences. This is of increasing importance, as large-scale infrastructural projects in a highly urbanized environment are increasingly subject to political and societal pressure to add additional features. For this reason, it is of increasing importance to be able to determine which new feature really adds to flood protection, to quantify how much its adds to the level of flood protection and to evaluate if it is really worthwhile. Please note: The Netherlands
Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt
Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan
2016-04-01
Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).
Probabilistic forward model for electroencephalography source analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Plis, Sergey M; George, John S; Jun, Sung C; Ranken, Doug M; Volegov, Petr L; Schmidt, David M
2007-01-01
Source localization by electroencephalography (EEG) requires an accurate model of head geometry and tissue conductivity. The estimation of source time courses from EEG or from EEG in conjunction with magnetoencephalography (MEG) requires a forward model consistent with true activity for the best outcome. Although MRI provides an excellent description of soft tissue anatomy, a high resolution model of the skull (the dominant resistive component of the head) requires CT, which is not justified for routine physiological studies. Although a number of techniques have been employed to estimate tissue conductivity, no present techniques provide the noninvasive 3D tomographic mapping of conductivity that would be desirable. We introduce a formalism for probabilistic forward modeling that allows the propagation of uncertainties in model parameters into possible errors in source localization. We consider uncertainties in the conductivity profile of the skull, but the approach is general and can be extended to other kinds of uncertainties in the forward model. We and others have previously suggested the possibility of extracting conductivity of the skull from measured electroencephalography data by simultaneously optimizing over dipole parameters and the conductivity values required by the forward model. Using Cramer-Rao bounds, we demonstrate that this approach does not improve localization results nor does it produce reliable conductivity estimates. We conclude that the conductivity of the skull has to be either accurately measured by an independent technique, or that the uncertainties in the conductivity values should be reflected in uncertainty in the source location estimates
Aging in probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kozuh, M.
1995-01-01
Aging is a phenomenon, which is influencing on unavailability of all components of the plant. The influence of aging on Probabilistic Safety Assessment calculations was estimated for Electrical Power Supply System. The average increase of system unavailability due to aging of system components was estimated and components were prioritized regarding their influence on change of system unavailability and relative increase of their unavailability due to aging. After the analysis of some numerical results, the recommendation for a detailed research of aging phenomena and its influence on system availability is given. (author)
Probabilistic assessment of SGTR management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Champ, M.; Cornille, Y.; Lanore, J.M.
1989-04-01
In case of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) event, in France, the mitigation of accident relies on operator intervention, by applying a specific accidental procedure. A detailed probabilistic analysis has been conducted which required the assessment of the failure probability of the operator actions, and for that purpose it was necessary to estimate the time available for the operator to apply the adequate procedure for various sequences. The results indicate that by taking into account the delays and the existence of adequate accidental procedures, the risk is reduced to a reasonably low level
Probabilistic accident sequence recovery analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stutzke, Martin A.; Cooper, Susan E.
2004-01-01
Recovery analysis is a method that considers alternative strategies for preventing accidents in nuclear power plants during probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Consideration of possible recovery actions in PRAs has been controversial, and there seems to be a widely held belief among PRA practitioners, utility staff, plant operators, and regulators that the results of recovery analysis should be skeptically viewed. This paper provides a framework for discussing recovery strategies, thus lending credibility to the process and enhancing regulatory acceptance of PRA results and conclusions. (author)
Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bari, R.A.
1985-01-01
This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)
Axiomatisation of fully probabilistic design
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kárný, Miroslav; Kroupa, Tomáš
2012-01-01
Roč. 186, č. 1 (2012), s. 105-113 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06001; GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian decision making * Fully probabilistic design * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Unified decision making Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.643, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/karny-0367271.pdf
Probabilistic Analysis of Crack Width
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Marková
2000-01-01
Full Text Available Probabilistic analysis of crack width of a reinforced concrete element is based on the formulas accepted in Eurocode 2 and European Model Code 90. Obtained values of reliability index b seem to be satisfactory for the reinforced concrete slab that fulfils requirements for the crack width specified in Eurocode 2. However, the reliability of the slab seems to be insufficient when the European Model Code 90 is considered; reliability index is less than recommended value 1.5 for serviceability limit states indicated in Eurocode 1. Analysis of sensitivity factors of basic variables enables to find out variables significantly affecting the total crack width.
Probabilistic approach to EMP assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bevensee, R.M.; Cabayan, H.S.; Deadrick, F.J.; Martin, L.C.; Mensing, R.W.
1980-09-01
The development of nuclear EMP hardness requirements must account for uncertainties in the environment, in interaction and coupling, and in the susceptibility of subsystems and components. Typical uncertainties of the last two kinds are briefly summarized, and an assessment methodology is outlined, based on a probabilistic approach that encompasses the basic concepts of reliability. It is suggested that statements of survivability be made compatible with system reliability. Validation of the approach taken for simple antenna/circuit systems is performed with experiments and calculations that involve a Transient Electromagnetic Range, numerical antenna modeling, separate device failure data, and a failure analysis computer program
Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1982-01-01
This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr
Probabilistic safety analysis using microcomputer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Futuro Filho, F.L.F.; Mendes, J.E.S.; Santos, M.J.P. dos
1990-01-01
The main steps of execution of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) are presented in this report, as the study of the system description, construction of event trees and fault trees, and the calculation of overall unavailability of the systems. It is also presented the use of microcomputer in performing some tasks, highlightning the main characteristics of a software to perform adequately the job. A sample case of fault tree construction and calculation is presented, using the PSAPACK software, distributed by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) for training purpose. (author)
Compression of Probabilistic XML Documents
Veldman, Irma; de Keijzer, Ander; van Keulen, Maurice
Database techniques to store, query and manipulate data that contains uncertainty receives increasing research interest. Such UDBMSs can be classified according to their underlying data model: relational, XML, or RDF. We focus on uncertain XML DBMS with as representative example the Probabilistic XML model (PXML) of [10,9]. The size of a PXML document is obviously a factor in performance. There are PXML-specific techniques to reduce the size, such as a push down mechanism, that produces equivalent but more compact PXML documents. It can only be applied, however, where possibilities are dependent. For normal XML documents there also exist several techniques for compressing a document. Since Probabilistic XML is (a special form of) normal XML, it might benefit from these methods even more. In this paper, we show that existing compression mechanisms can be combined with PXML-specific compression techniques. We also show that best compression rates are obtained with a combination of PXML-specific technique with a rather simple generic DAG-compression technique.
Living probabilistic safety assessment (LPSA)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1999-08-01
Over the past few years many nuclear power plant organizations have performed probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) to identify and understand key plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. PSA is an effective tool for this purpose as it assists plant management to target resources where the largest benefit to plant safety can be obtained. However, any PSA which is to be used in this way must have a credible and defensible basis. Thus, it is very important to have a high quality 'living PSA' accepted by the plant and the regulator. With this background in mind, the IAEA has prepared this report on Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (LPSA) which addresses the updating, documentation, quality assurance, and management and organizational requirements for LPSA. Deficiencies in the areas addressed in this report would seriously reduce the adequacy of the LPSA as a tool to support decision making at NPPs. This report was reviewed by a working group during a Technical Committee Meeting on PSA Applications to Improve NPP Safety held in Madrid, Spain, from 23 to 27 February 1998
Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction
Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto
2004-01-01
A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.
Is Probabilistic Evidence a Source of Knowledge?
Friedman, Ori; Turri, John
2015-01-01
We report a series of experiments examining whether people ascribe knowledge for true beliefs based on probabilistic evidence. Participants were less likely to ascribe knowledge for beliefs based on probabilistic evidence than for beliefs based on perceptual evidence (Experiments 1 and 2A) or testimony providing causal information (Experiment 2B).…
Probabilistic Cue Combination: Less Is More
Yurovsky, Daniel; Boyer, Ty W.; Smith, Linda B.; Yu, Chen
2013-01-01
Learning about the structure of the world requires learning probabilistic relationships: rules in which cues do not predict outcomes with certainty. However, in some cases, the ability to track probabilistic relationships is a handicap, leading adults to perform non-normatively in prediction tasks. For example, in the "dilution effect,"…
Multiobjective optimal allocation problem with probabilistic non ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper considers the optimum compromise allocation in multivariate stratified sampling with non-linear objective function and probabilistic non-linear cost constraint. The probabilistic non-linear cost constraint is converted into equivalent deterministic one by using Chance Constrained programming. A numerical ...
Probabilistic reasoning with graphical security models
Kordy, Barbara; Pouly, Marc; Schweitzer, Patrick
This work provides a computational framework for meaningful probabilistic evaluation of attack–defense scenarios involving dependent actions. We combine the graphical security modeling technique of attack–defense trees with probabilistic information expressed in terms of Bayesian networks. In order
Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments
2015-09-30
Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments Jan Dettmer School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria BC...long-range inversion methods can fail to provide sufficient resolution. For proper quantitative examination of variability, parameter uncertainty must...project aims to advance probabilistic geoacoustic inversion methods for complex ocean environments for a range of geoacoustic data types. The work is
Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2014-02-14
Feb 14, 2014 ... Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model ... aim of this paper is to investigate the increase in the lead-time of flash flood warnings of the SAFFG using probabilistic precipitation forecasts ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based.
Why do probabilistic finite element analysis ?
Thacker, Ben H
2008-01-01
The intention of this book is to provide an introduction to performing probabilistic finite element analysis. As a short guideline, the objective is to inform the reader of the use, benefits and issues associated with performing probabilistic finite element analysis without excessive theory or mathematical detail.
Branching bisimulation congruence for probabilistic systems
Trcka, N.; Georgievska, S.; Aldini, A.; Baier, C.
2008-01-01
The notion of branching bisimulation for the alternating model of probabilistic systems is not a congruence with respect to parallel composition. In this paper we first define another branching bisimulation in the more general model allowing consecutive probabilistic transitions, and we prove that
Probabilistic Reversible Automata and Quantum Automata
Golovkins, Marats; Kravtsev, Maksim
2002-01-01
To study relationship between quantum finite automata and probabilistic finite automata, we introduce a notion of probabilistic reversible automata (PRA, or doubly stochastic automata). We find that there is a strong relationship between different possible models of PRA and corresponding models of quantum finite automata. We also propose a classification of reversible finite 1-way automata.
Bisimulations meet PCTL equivalences for probabilistic automata
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun; Godskesen, Jens Chr.
2013-01-01
Probabilistic automata (PAs) have been successfully applied in formal verification of concurrent and stochastic systems. Efficient model checking algorithms have been studied, where the most often used logics for expressing properties are based on probabilistic computation tree logic (PCTL) and its...
Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning
Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.
2011-01-01
The assumption in some current theories of probabilistic categorization is that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report 2 probabilistic-categorization experiments in which we investigated error…
Consideration of aging in probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Titina, B.; Cepin, M.
2007-01-01
Probabilistic safety assessment is a standardised tool for assessment of safety of nuclear power plants. It is a complement to the safety analyses. Standard probabilistic models of safety equipment assume component failure rate as a constant. Ageing of systems, structures and components can theoretically be included in new age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment, which generally causes the failure rate to be a function of age. New age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment models, which offer explicit calculation of the ageing effects, are developed. Several groups of components are considered which require their unique models: e.g. operating components e.g. stand-by components. The developed models on the component level are inserted into the models of the probabilistic safety assessment in order that the ageing effects are evaluated for complete systems. The preliminary results show that the lack of necessary data for consideration of ageing causes highly uncertain models and consequently the results. (author)
Structural reliability codes for probabilistic design
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager
1997-01-01
probabilistic code format has not only strong influence on the formal reliability measure, but also on the formal cost of failure to be associated if a design made to the target reliability level is considered to be optimal. In fact, the formal cost of failure can be different by several orders of size for two...... different, but by and large equally justifiable probabilistic code formats. Thus, the consequence is that a code format based on decision theoretical concepts and formulated as an extension of a probabilistic code format must specify formal values to be used as costs of failure. A principle of prudence...... is suggested for guiding the choice of the reference probabilistic code format for constant reliability. In the author's opinion there is an urgent need for establishing a standard probabilistic reliability code. This paper presents some considerations that may be debatable, but nevertheless point...
Mapping Common Aphasia Assessments to Underlying Cognitive Processes and Their Neural Substrates.
Lacey, Elizabeth H; Skipper-Kallal, Laura M; Xing, Shihui; Fama, Mackenzie E; Turkeltaub, Peter E
2017-05-01
Understanding the relationships between clinical tests, the processes they measure, and the brain networks underlying them, is critical in order for clinicians to move beyond aphasia syndrome classification toward specification of individual language process impairments. To understand the cognitive, language, and neuroanatomical factors underlying scores of commonly used aphasia tests. Twenty-five behavioral tests were administered to a group of 38 chronic left hemisphere stroke survivors and a high-resolution magnetic resonance image was obtained. Test scores were entered into a principal components analysis to extract the latent variables (factors) measured by the tests. Multivariate lesion-symptom mapping was used to localize lesions associated with the factor scores. The principal components analysis yielded 4 dissociable factors, which we labeled Word Finding/Fluency, Comprehension, Phonology/Working Memory Capacity, and Executive Function. While many tests loaded onto the factors in predictable ways, some relied heavily on factors not commonly associated with the tests. Lesion symptom mapping demonstrated discrete brain structures associated with each factor, including frontal, temporal, and parietal areas extending beyond the classical language network. Specific functions mapped onto brain anatomy largely in correspondence with modern neural models of language processing. An extensive clinical aphasia assessment identifies 4 independent language functions, relying on discrete parts of the left middle cerebral artery territory. A better understanding of the processes underlying cognitive tests and the link between lesion and behavior may lead to improved aphasia diagnosis, and may yield treatments better targeted to an individual's specific pattern of deficits and preserved abilities.
Probabilistic mapping of deep brain stimulation effects in essential tremor
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Till A Dembek
2017-01-01
Discussion: Our results support the assumption, that the ZI might be a very effective target for tremor suppression. However stimulation inside the ZI and in its close vicinity was also related to the occurrence of stimulation-induced side-effects, so it remains unclear whether the VIM or the ZI is the overall better target. The study demonstrates the use of PSMs for target selection and evaluation. While their accuracy has to be carefully discussed, they can improve the understanding of DBS effects and can be of use for other DBS targets in the therapy of neurological or psychiatric disorders as well. Furthermore they provide a priori information about expected DBS effects in a certain region and might be helpful to clinicians in programming DBS devices in the future.
Probabilistic landslide hazards and risk mapping on Penang Island ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
This paper deals with landslide hazards and risk analysis of Penang Island, Malaysia using Geo- .... require a priori knowledge of the main causes of landslides .... Soil. Rengam-bukit. 289450. 10.03. 96. 20.73. 2.07 temiang association. Selangor-kangkong. 34197. 1.18. 0. 0.00. 0.00 association. Local alluvium-. 373655.
Efficient Sensor Placement Optimization Using Gradient Descent and Probabilistic Coverage
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vahab Akbarzadeh
2014-08-01
Full Text Available We are proposing an adaptation of the gradient descent method to optimize the position and orientation of sensors for the sensor placement problem. The novelty of the proposed method lies in the combination of gradient descent optimization with a realistic model, which considers both the topography of the environment and a set of sensors with directional probabilistic sensing. The performance of this approach is compared with two other black box optimization methods over area coverage and processing time. Results show that our proposed method produces competitive results on smaller maps and superior results on larger maps, while requiring much less computation than the other optimization methods to which it has been compared.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Koo, B. B.; Lee, J. M.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, I. Y.; Kim, S. I. [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, J. S.; Lee, D. S.; Kwon, J. S. [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, J. J. [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2003-06-01
The probabilistic anatomical maps are used to localize the functional neuro-images and morphological variability. The quantitative indicator is very important to inquire the anatomical position of an activated region because functional image data has the low-resolution nature and no inherent anatomical information. Although previously developed MNI probabilistic anatomical map was enough to localize the data, it was not suitable for the Korean brains because of the morphological difference between Occidental and Oriental. In this study, we develop a probabilistic anatomical map for Korean normal brain. Normal 75 brains of T1-weighted spoiled gradient echo magnetic resonance images were acquired on a 1.5-T GESIGNA scanner. Then, a standard brain is selected in the group through a clinician searches a brain of the average property in the Talairach coordinate system. With the standard brain, an anatomist delineates 89 regions of interest (ROI) parcellating cortical and subcortical areas. The parcellated ROIs of the standard are warped and overlapped into each brain by maximizing intensity similarity. And every brain is automatically labeled with the registered ROIs. Each of the same-labeled region is linearly normalize to the standard brain, and the occurrence of each region is counted. Finally, 89 probabilistic ROI volumes are generated. This paper presents a probabilistic anatomical map for localizing the functional and structural analysis of Korean normal brain. In the future, we'll develop the group specific probabilistic anatomical maps of OCD and schizophrenia disease.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koo, B. B.; Lee, J. M.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, I. Y.; Kim, S. I.; Lee, J. S.; Lee, D. S.; Kwon, J. S.; Kim, J. J.
2003-01-01
The probabilistic anatomical maps are used to localize the functional neuro-images and morphological variability. The quantitative indicator is very important to inquire the anatomical position of an activated region because functional image data has the low-resolution nature and no inherent anatomical information. Although previously developed MNI probabilistic anatomical map was enough to localize the data, it was not suitable for the Korean brains because of the morphological difference between Occidental and Oriental. In this study, we develop a probabilistic anatomical map for Korean normal brain. Normal 75 brains of T1-weighted spoiled gradient echo magnetic resonance images were acquired on a 1.5-T GESIGNA scanner. Then, a standard brain is selected in the group through a clinician searches a brain of the average property in the Talairach coordinate system. With the standard brain, an anatomist delineates 89 regions of interest (ROI) parcellating cortical and subcortical areas. The parcellated ROIs of the standard are warped and overlapped into each brain by maximizing intensity similarity. And every brain is automatically labeled with the registered ROIs. Each of the same-labeled region is linearly normalize to the standard brain, and the occurrence of each region is counted. Finally, 89 probabilistic ROI volumes are generated. This paper presents a probabilistic anatomical map for localizing the functional and structural analysis of Korean normal brain. In the future, we'll develop the group specific probabilistic anatomical maps of OCD and schizophrenia disease
SPA: a probabilistic algorithm for spliced alignment.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2006-04-01
Full Text Available Recent large-scale cDNA sequencing efforts show that elaborate patterns of splice variation are responsible for much of the proteome diversity in higher eukaryotes. To obtain an accurate account of the repertoire of splice variants, and to gain insight into the mechanisms of alternative splicing, it is essential that cDNAs are very accurately mapped to their respective genomes. Currently available algorithms for cDNA-to-genome alignment do not reach the necessary level of accuracy because they use ad hoc scoring models that cannot correctly trade off the likelihoods of various sequencing errors against the probabilities of different gene structures. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic approach to cDNA-to-genome alignment. Gene structures are assigned prior probabilities based on the lengths of their introns and exons, and based on the sequences at their splice boundaries. A likelihood model for sequencing errors takes into account the rates at which misincorporation, as well as insertions and deletions of different lengths, occurs during sequencing. The parameters of both the prior and likelihood model can be automatically estimated from a set of cDNAs, thus enabling our method to adapt itself to different organisms and experimental procedures. We implemented our method in a fast cDNA-to-genome alignment program, SPA, and applied it to the FANTOM3 dataset of over 100,000 full-length mouse cDNAs and a dataset of over 20,000 full-length human cDNAs. Comparison with the results of four other mapping programs shows that SPA produces alignments of significantly higher quality. In particular, the quality of the SPA alignments near splice boundaries and SPA's mapping of the 5' and 3' ends of the cDNAs are highly improved, allowing for more accurate identification of transcript starts and ends, and accurate identification of subtle splice variations. Finally, our splice boundary analysis on the human dataset suggests the existence of a novel non
Assignment of functional activations to probabilistic cytoarchitectonic areas revisited.
Eickhoff, Simon B; Paus, Tomas; Caspers, Svenja; Grosbras, Marie-Helene; Evans, Alan C; Zilles, Karl; Amunts, Katrin
2007-07-01
Probabilistic cytoarchitectonic maps in standard reference space provide a powerful tool for the analysis of structure-function relationships in the human brain. While these microstructurally defined maps have already been successfully used in the analysis of somatosensory, motor or language functions, several conceptual issues in the analysis of structure-function relationships still demand further clarification. In this paper, we demonstrate the principle approaches for anatomical localisation of functional activations based on probabilistic cytoarchitectonic maps by exemplary analysis of an anterior parietal activation evoked by visual presentation of hand gestures. After consideration of the conceptual basis and implementation of volume or local maxima labelling, we comment on some potential interpretational difficulties, limitations and caveats that could be encountered. Extending and supplementing these methods, we then propose a supplementary approach for quantification of structure-function correspondences based on distribution analysis. This approach relates the cytoarchitectonic probabilities observed at a particular functionally defined location to the areal specific null distribution of probabilities across the whole brain (i.e., the full probability map). Importantly, this method avoids the need for a unique classification of voxels to a single cortical area and may increase the comparability between results obtained for different areas. Moreover, as distribution-based labelling quantifies the "central tendency" of an activation with respect to anatomical areas, it will, in combination with the established methods, allow an advanced characterisation of the anatomical substrates of functional activations. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods are discussed, focussing on the question of which approach is most appropriate for a particular situation.
Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling
Joyner, James J., Sr.
2016-01-01
This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.
Probabilistic cloning with supplementary information
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Azuma, Koji; Shimamura, Junichi; Koashi, Masato; Imoto, Nobuyuki
2005-01-01
We consider probabilistic cloning of a state chosen from a mutually nonorthogonal set of pure states, with the help of a party holding supplementary information in the form of pure states. When the number of states is 2, we show that the best efficiency of producing m copies is always achieved by a two-step protocol in which the helping party first attempts to produce m-1 copies from the supplementary state, and if it fails, then the original state is used to produce m copies. On the other hand, when the number of states exceeds two, the best efficiency is not always achieved by such a protocol. We give examples in which the best efficiency is not achieved even if we allow any amount of one-way classical communication from the helping party
Machine learning a probabilistic perspective
Murphy, Kevin P
2012-01-01
Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic method...
Probabilistic analysis of modernization options
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wunderlich, W.O.; Giles, J.E.
1991-01-01
This paper reports on benefit-cost analysis for hydropower operations, a standard procedure for reaching planning decisions. Cost overruns and benefit shortfalls are also common occurrences. One reason for the difficulty of predicting future benefits and costs is that they usually cannot be represented with sufficient reliability by accurate values, because of the many uncertainties that enter the analysis through assumptions on inputs and system parameters. Therefore, ranges of variables need to be analyzed instead of single values. As a consequence, the decision criteria, such as net benefit and benefit-cost ratio, also vary over some range. A probabilistic approach will be demonstrated as a tool for assessing the reliability of the results
Probabilistic assessments of fuel performance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kelppe, S.; Ranta-Puska, K.
1998-01-01
The probabilistic Monte Carlo Method, coupled with quasi-random sampling, is applied for the fuel performance analyses. By using known distributions of fabrication parameters and real power histories with their randomly selected combinations, and by making a large number of ENIGMA code calculations, one expects to find out the state of the whole reactor fuel. Good statistics requires thousands of runs. A sample case representing VVER-440 reactor fuel indicates relatively low fuel temperatures and mainly athermal fission gas release if any. The rod internal pressure remains typically below 2.5 MPa, which leaves a large margin to the system pressure of 12 MPa Gap conductance, an essential parameter in the accident evaluations, shows no decrease from its start-of-life value. (orig.)
Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Program (FATIG)
Michalopoulos, Constantine
2012-01-01
FATIG computes fatigue damage/fatigue life using the stress rms (root mean square) value, the total number of cycles, and S-N curve parameters. The damage is computed by the following methods: (a) traditional method using Miner s rule with stress cycles determined from a Rayleigh distribution up to 3*sigma; and (b) classical fatigue damage formula involving the Gamma function, which is derived from the integral version of Miner's rule. The integration is carried out over all stress amplitudes. This software solves the problem of probabilistic fatigue damage using the integral form of the Palmgren-Miner rule. The software computes fatigue life using an approach involving all stress amplitudes, up to N*sigma, as specified by the user. It can be used in the design of structural components subjected to random dynamic loading, or by any stress analyst with minimal training for fatigue life estimates of structural components.
Probabilistic cloning of equidistant states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jimenez, O.; Roa, Luis; Delgado, A.
2010-01-01
We study the probabilistic cloning of equidistant states. These states are such that the inner product between them is a complex constant or its conjugate. Thereby, it is possible to study their cloning in a simple way. In particular, we are interested in the behavior of the cloning probability as a function of the phase of the overlap among the involved states. We show that for certain families of equidistant states Duan and Guo's cloning machine leads to cloning probabilities lower than the optimal unambiguous discrimination probability of equidistant states. We propose an alternative cloning machine whose cloning probability is higher than or equal to the optimal unambiguous discrimination probability for any family of equidistant states. Both machines achieve the same probability for equidistant states whose inner product is a positive real number.
Probabilistic safety assessment - regulatory perspective
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Solanki, R.B.; Paul, U.K.; Hajra, P.; Agarwal, S.K.
2002-01-01
Full text: Nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been designed, constructed and operated mainly based on deterministic safety analysis philosophy. In this approach, a substantial amount of safety margin is incorporated in the design and operational requirements. Additional margin is incorporated by applying the highest quality engineering codes, standards and practices, and the concept of defence-in-depth in design and operating procedures, by including conservative assumptions and acceptance criteria in plant response analysis of postulated initiating events (PIEs). However, as the probabilistic approach has been improved and refined over the years, it is possible for the designer, operator and regulator to get a more detailed and realistic picture of the safety importance of plant design features, operating procedures and operational practices by using probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) along with the deterministic methodology. At present, many countries including USA, UK and France are using PSA insights in their decision making along with deterministic basis. India has also made substantial progress in the development of methods for carrying out PSA. However, consensus on the use of PSA in regulatory decision-making has not been achieved yet. This paper emphasises on the requirements (e.g.,level of details, key modelling assumptions, data, modelling aspects, success criteria, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis) for improving the quality and consistency in performance and use of PSA that can facilitate meaningful use of the PSA insights in the regulatory decision-making in India. This paper also provides relevant information on international scenario and various application areas of PSA along with progress made in India. The PSA perspective presented in this paper may help in achieving consensus on the use of PSA for regulatory / utility decision-making in design and operation of NPPs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ferjan Ormeling
2008-09-01
Full Text Available Discussing the requirements for map data quality, map users and their library/archives environment, the paper focuses on the metadata the user would need for a correct and efficient interpretation of the map data. For such a correct interpretation, knowledge of the rules and guidelines according to which the topographers/cartographers work (such as the kind of data categories to be collected, and the degree to which these rules and guidelines were indeed followed are essential. This is not only valid for the old maps stored in our libraries and archives, but perhaps even more so for the new digital files as the format in which we now have to access our geospatial data. As this would be too much to ask from map librarians/curators, some sort of web 2.0 environment is sought where comments about data quality, completeness and up-to-dateness from knowledgeable map users regarding the specific maps or map series studied can be collected and tagged to scanned versions of these maps on the web. In order not to be subject to the same disadvantages as Wikipedia, where the ‘communis opinio’ rather than scholarship, seems to be decisive, some checking by map curators of this tagged map use information would still be needed. Cooperation between map curators and the International Cartographic Association ( ICA map and spatial data use commission to this end is suggested.
Fast algorithm for probabilistic bone edge detection (FAPBED)
Scepanovic, Danilo; Kirshtein, Joshua; Jain, Ameet K.; Taylor, Russell H.
2005-04-01
The registration of preoperative CT to intra-operative reality systems is a crucial step in Computer Assisted Orthopedic Surgery (CAOS). The intra-operative sensors include 3D digitizers, fiducials, X-rays and Ultrasound (US). FAPBED is designed to process CT volumes for registration to tracked US data. Tracked US is advantageous because it is real time, noninvasive, and non-ionizing, but it is also known to have inherent inaccuracies which create the need to develop a framework that is robust to various uncertainties, and can be useful in US-CT registration. Furthermore, conventional registration methods depend on accurate and absolute segmentation. Our proposed probabilistic framework addresses the segmentation-registration duality, wherein exact segmentation is not a prerequisite to achieve accurate registration. In this paper, we develop a method for fast and automatic probabilistic bone surface (edge) detection in CT images. Various features that influence the likelihood of the surface at each spatial coordinate are combined using a simple probabilistic framework, which strikes a fair balance between a high-level understanding of features in an image and the low-level number crunching of standard image processing techniques. The algorithm evaluates different features for detecting the probability of a bone surface at each voxel, and compounds the results of these methods to yield a final, low-noise, probability map of bone surfaces in the volume. Such a probability map can then be used in conjunction with a similar map from tracked intra-operative US to achieve accurate registration. Eight sample pelvic CT scans were used to extract feature parameters and validate the final probability maps. An un-optimized fully automatic Matlab code runs in five minutes per CT volume on average, and was validated by comparison against hand-segmented gold standards. The mean probability assigned to nonzero surface points was 0.8, while nonzero non-surface points had a mean
Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence.
Ghahramani, Zoubin
2015-05-28
How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.
Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence
Ghahramani, Zoubin
2015-05-01
How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.
Probabilistic assessment of nuclear safety and safeguards
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Higson, D.J.
1987-01-01
Nuclear reactor accidents and diversions of materials from the nuclear fuel cycle are perceived by many people as particularly serious threats to society. Probabilistic assessment is a rational approach to the evaluation of both threats, and may provide a basis for decisions on appropriate actions to control them. Probabilistic method have become standard tools used in the analysis of safety, but there are disagreements on the criteria to be applied when assessing the results of analysis. Probabilistic analysis and assessment of the effectiveness of nuclear material safeguards are still at an early stage of development. (author)
Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodologies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kudinov, P.; Vorobyev, Y.; Sanchez-Perea, M.; Queral, C.; Jimenez Varas, G.; Rebollo, M. J.; Mena, L.; Gomez-Magin, J.
2014-02-01
IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is a family of methods which use tightly coupled probabilistic and deterministic approaches to address respective sources of uncertainties, enabling Risk informed decision making in a consistent manner. The starting point of the IDPSA framework is that safety justification must be based on the coupling of deterministic (consequences) and probabilistic (frequency) considerations to address the mutual interactions between stochastic disturbances (e.g. failures of the equipment, human actions, stochastic physical phenomena) and deterministic response of the plant (i.e. transients). This paper gives a general overview of some IDPSA methods as well as some possible applications to PWR safety analyses. (Author)
A History of Probabilistic Inductive Logic Programming
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fabrizio eRiguzzi
2014-09-01
Full Text Available The field of Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP has seen significant advances in the last 20 years, with many proposals for languages that combine probability with logic programming. Since the start, the problem of learning probabilistic logic programs has been the focus of much attention. Learning these programs represents a whole subfield of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP. In Probabilistic ILP (PILP two problems are considered: learning the parameters of a program given the structure (the rules and learning both the structure and the parameters. Usually structure learning systems use parameter learning as a subroutine. In this article we present an overview of PILP and discuss the main results.
PROBABILISTIC RELATIONAL MODELS OF COMPLETE IL-SEMIRINGS
Tsumagari, Norihiro
2012-01-01
This paper studies basic properties of probabilistic multirelations which are generalized the semantic domain of probabilistic systems and then provides two probabilistic models of complete IL-semirings using probabilistic multirelations. Also it is shown that these models need not be models of complete idempotentsemirings.
A convergence theory for probabilistic metric spaces | Jäger ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
We develop a theory of probabilistic convergence spaces based on Tardiff's neighbourhood systems for probabilistic metric spaces. We show that the resulting category is a topological universe and we characterize a subcategory that is isomorphic to the category of probabilistic metric spaces. Keywords: Probabilistic metric ...
Disjunctive Probabilistic Modal Logic is Enough for Bisimilarity on Reactive Probabilistic Systems
Bernardo, Marco; Miculan, Marino
2016-01-01
Larsen and Skou characterized probabilistic bisimilarity over reactive probabilistic systems with a logic including true, negation, conjunction, and a diamond modality decorated with a probabilistic lower bound. Later on, Desharnais, Edalat, and Panangaden showed that negation is not necessary to characterize the same equivalence. In this paper, we prove that the logical characterization holds also when conjunction is replaced by disjunction, with negation still being not necessary. To this e...
On synchronous parallel computations with independent probabilistic choice
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reif, J.H.
1984-01-01
This paper introduces probabilistic choice to synchronous parallel machine models; in particular parallel RAMs. The power of probabilistic choice in parallel computations is illustrate by parallelizing some known probabilistic sequential algorithms. The authors characterize the computational complexity of time, space, and processor bounded probabilistic parallel RAMs in terms of the computational complexity of probabilistic sequential RAMs. They show that parallelism uniformly speeds up time bounded probabilistic sequential RAM computations by nearly a quadratic factor. They also show that probabilistic choice can be eliminated from parallel computations by introducing nonuniformity
Probabilistic Counterfactuals: Semantics, Computation, and Applications
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Balke, Alexander
1997-01-01
... handled within the framework of standard probability theory. Starting with functional description of physical mechanisms, we were able to derive the standard probabilistic properties of Bayesian networks and to show: (1...
Multiobjective optimal allocation problem with probabilistic non ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
The probabilistic non-linear cost constraint is converted into equivalent deterministic .... Further, in a survey the costs for enumerating a character in various strata are not known exactly, rather these are being ...... Naval Research Logistics, Vol.
Strategic Team AI Path Plans: Probabilistic Pathfinding
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tng C. H. John
2008-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method to generate strategic team AI pathfinding plans for computer games and simulations using probabilistic pathfinding. This method is inspired by genetic algorithms (Russell and Norvig, 2002, in that, a fitness function is used to test the quality of the path plans. The method generates high-quality path plans by eliminating the low-quality ones. The path plans are generated by probabilistic pathfinding, and the elimination is done by a fitness test of the path plans. This path plan generation method has the ability to generate variation or different high-quality paths, which is desired for games to increase replay values. This work is an extension of our earlier work on team AI: probabilistic pathfinding (John et al., 2006. We explore ways to combine probabilistic pathfinding and genetic algorithm to create a new method to generate strategic team AI pathfinding plans.
Probabilistic Meteorological Characterization for Turbine Loads
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kelly, Mark C.; Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov
2014-01-01
Beyond the existing, limited IEC prescription to describe fatigue loads on wind turbines, we look towards probabilistic characterization of the loads via analogous characterization of the atmospheric flow, particularly for today's "taller" turbines with rotors well above the atmospheric surface...
Probabilistic composition of preferences, theory and applications
Parracho Sant'Anna, Annibal
2015-01-01
Putting forward a unified presentation of the features and possible applications of probabilistic preferences composition, and serving as a methodology for decisions employing multiple criteria, this book maximizes reader insights into the evaluation in probabilistic terms and the development of composition approaches that do not depend on assigning weights to the criteria. With key applications in important areas of management such as failure modes, effects analysis and productivity analysis – together with explanations about the application of the concepts involved –this book makes available numerical examples of probabilistic transformation development and probabilistic composition. Useful not only as a reference source for researchers, but also in teaching classes of graduate courses in Production Engineering and Management Science, the key themes of the book will be of especial interest to researchers in the field of Operational Research.
Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.
1993-01-01
This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory
Probabilistic safety assessment for seismic events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1993-10-01
This Technical Document on Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Seismic Events is mainly associated with the Safety Practice on Treatment of External Hazards in PSA and discusses in detail one specific external hazard, i.e. earthquakes
Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic techniques. ... of managing the size of software development projects by Purchasers (Clients) and Vendors (Development ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT
Comparing Categorical and Probabilistic Fingerprint Evidence.
Garrett, Brandon; Mitchell, Gregory; Scurich, Nicholas
2018-04-23
Fingerprint examiners traditionally express conclusions in categorical terms, opining that impressions do or do not originate from the same source. Recently, probabilistic conclusions have been proposed, with examiners estimating the probability of a match between recovered and known prints. This study presented a nationally representative sample of jury-eligible adults with a hypothetical robbery case in which an examiner opined on the likelihood that a defendant's fingerprints matched latent fingerprints in categorical or probabilistic terms. We studied model language developed by the U.S. Defense Forensic Science Center to summarize results of statistical analysis of the similarity between prints. Participant ratings of the likelihood the defendant left prints at the crime scene and committed the crime were similar when exposed to categorical and strong probabilistic match evidence. Participants reduced these likelihoods when exposed to the weaker probabilistic evidence, but did not otherwise discriminate among the prints assigned different match probabilities. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
Probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing
Anderluh, J.H.M.
2007-01-01
The thesis presents three ways of calculating the Parisian option price as an illustration of probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing. Moreover options on commidities are considered and double-sided barrier options in a compound Poisson framework.
Non-unitary probabilistic quantum computing
Gingrich, Robert M.; Williams, Colin P.
2004-01-01
We present a method for designing quantum circuits that perform non-unitary quantum computations on n-qubit states probabilistically, and give analytic expressions for the success probability and fidelity.
A logic for inductive probabilistic reasoning
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2005-01-01
Inductive probabilistic reasoning is understood as the application of inference patterns that use statistical background information to assign (subjective) probabilities to single events. The simplest such inference pattern is direct inference: from '70% of As are Bs" and "a is an A" infer...... that a is a B with probability 0.7. Direct inference is generalized by Jeffrey's rule and the principle of cross-entropy minimization. To adequately formalize inductive probabilistic reasoning is an interesting topic for artificial intelligence, as an autonomous system acting in a complex environment may have...... to base its actions on a probabilistic model of its environment, and the probabilities needed to form this model can often be obtained by combining statistical background information with particular observations made, i.e., by inductive probabilistic reasoning. In this paper a formal framework...
Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. H. Ramos
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.
Risk assessment using probabilistic standards
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Avila, R.
2004-01-01
A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim
Miran, Seyed M; Ling, Chen; James, Joseph J; Gerard, Alan; Rothfusz, Lans
2017-11-01
Effective design for presenting severe weather information is important to reduce devastating consequences of severe weather. The Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system for severe weather is being developed by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) to communicate probabilistic hazardous weather information. This study investigates the effects of four PHI graphical designs for tornado threat, namely, "four-color"," red-scale", "grayscale" and "contour", on users' perception, interpretation, and reaction to threat information. PHI is presented on either a map background or a radar background. Analysis showed that the accuracy was significantly higher and response time faster when PHI was displayed on map background as compared to radar background due to better contrast. When displayed on a radar background, "grayscale" design resulted in a higher accuracy of responses. Possibly due to familiarity, participants reported four-color design as their favorite design, which also resulted in the fastest recognition of probability levels on both backgrounds. Our study shows the importance of using intuitive color-coding and sufficient contrast in conveying probabilistic threat information via graphical design. We also found that users follows a rational perceiving-judging-feeling-and acting approach in processing probabilistic hazard information for tornado. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Learning probabilistic features for robotic navigation using laser sensors.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fidel Aznar
Full Text Available SLAM is a popular task used by robots and autonomous vehicles to build a map of an unknown environment and, at the same time, to determine their location within the map. This paper describes a SLAM-based, probabilistic robotic system able to learn the essential features of different parts of its environment. Some previous SLAM implementations had computational complexities ranging from O(Nlog(N to O(N(2, where N is the number of map features. Unlike these methods, our approach reduces the computational complexity to O(N by using a model to fuse the information from the sensors after applying the Bayesian paradigm. Once the training process is completed, the robot identifies and locates those areas that potentially match the sections that have been previously learned. After the training, the robot navigates and extracts a three-dimensional map of the environment using a single laser sensor. Thus, it perceives different sections of its world. In addition, in order to make our system able to be used in a low-cost robot, low-complexity algorithms that can be easily implemented on embedded processors or microcontrollers are used.
Learning probabilistic features for robotic navigation using laser sensors.
Aznar, Fidel; Pujol, Francisco A; Pujol, Mar; Rizo, Ramón; Pujol, María-José
2014-01-01
SLAM is a popular task used by robots and autonomous vehicles to build a map of an unknown environment and, at the same time, to determine their location within the map. This paper describes a SLAM-based, probabilistic robotic system able to learn the essential features of different parts of its environment. Some previous SLAM implementations had computational complexities ranging from O(Nlog(N)) to O(N(2)), where N is the number of map features. Unlike these methods, our approach reduces the computational complexity to O(N) by using a model to fuse the information from the sensors after applying the Bayesian paradigm. Once the training process is completed, the robot identifies and locates those areas that potentially match the sections that have been previously learned. After the training, the robot navigates and extracts a three-dimensional map of the environment using a single laser sensor. Thus, it perceives different sections of its world. In addition, in order to make our system able to be used in a low-cost robot, low-complexity algorithms that can be easily implemented on embedded processors or microcontrollers are used.
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: the Seaside, Oregon Pilot Study
Gonzalez, F. I.; Geist, E. L.; Synolakis, C.; Titov, V. V.
2004-12-01
A pilot study of Seaside, Oregon is underway, to develop methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments that can be incorporated into Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) developed by FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Current NFIP guidelines for tsunami hazard assessment rely on the science, technology and methodologies developed in the 1970s; although generally regarded as groundbreaking and state-of-the-art for its time, this approach is now superseded by modern methods that reflect substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades. In particular, post-1990 technical advances include: improvements in tsunami source specification; improved tsunami inundation models; better computational grids by virtue of improved bathymetric and topographic databases; a larger database of long-term paleoseismic and paleotsunami records and short-term, historical earthquake and tsunami records that can be exploited to develop improved probabilistic methodologies; better understanding of earthquake recurrence and probability models. The NOAA-led U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), in partnership with FEMA, USGS, NSF and Emergency Management and Geotechnical agencies of the five Pacific States, incorporates these advances into site-specific tsunami hazard assessments for coastal communities in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington. NTHMP hazard assessment efforts currently focus on developing deterministic, "credible worst-case" scenarios that provide valuable guidance for hazard mitigation and emergency management. The NFIP focus, on the other hand, is on actuarial needs that require probabilistic hazard assessments such as those that characterize 100- and 500-year flooding events. There are clearly overlaps in NFIP and NTHMP objectives. NTHMP worst-case scenario assessments that include an estimated probability of occurrence could benefit the NFIP; NFIP probabilistic assessments of 100- and 500-yr
New probabilistic interest measures for association rules
Hahsler, Michael; Hornik, Kurt
2008-01-01
Mining association rules is an important technique for discovering meaningful patterns in transaction databases. Many different measures of interestingness have been proposed for association rules. However, these measures fail to take the probabilistic properties of the mined data into account. In this paper, we start with presenting a simple probabilistic framework for transaction data which can be used to simulate transaction data when no associations are present. We use such data and a rea...
Semantics of probabilistic processes an operational approach
Deng, Yuxin
2015-01-01
This book discusses the semantic foundations of concurrent systems with nondeterministic and probabilistic behaviour. Particular attention is given to clarifying the relationship between testing and simulation semantics and characterising bisimulations from metric, logical, and algorithmic perspectives. Besides presenting recent research outcomes in probabilistic concurrency theory, the book exemplifies the use of many mathematical techniques to solve problems in computer science, which is intended to be accessible to postgraduate students in Computer Science and Mathematics. It can also be us
Probabilistic cloning of three symmetric states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jimenez, O.; Bergou, J.; Delgado, A.
2010-01-01
We study the probabilistic cloning of three symmetric states. These states are defined by a single complex quantity, the inner product among them. We show that three different probabilistic cloning machines are necessary to optimally clone all possible families of three symmetric states. We also show that the optimal cloning probability of generating M copies out of one original can be cast as the quotient between the success probability of unambiguously discriminating one and M copies of symmetric states.
Probabilistic Analysis Methods for Hybrid Ventilation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brohus, Henrik; Frier, Christian; Heiselberg, Per
This paper discusses a general approach for the application of probabilistic analysis methods in the design of ventilation systems. The aims and scope of probabilistic versus deterministic methods are addressed with special emphasis on hybrid ventilation systems. A preliminary application...... of stochastic differential equations is presented comprising a general heat balance for an arbitrary number of loads and zones in a building to determine the thermal behaviour under random conditions....
Probabilistic causality and radiogenic cancers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Groeer, P.G.
1986-01-01
A review and scrutiny of the literature on probability and probabilistic causality shows that it is possible under certain assumptions to estimate the probability that a certain type of cancer diagnosed in an individual exposed to radiation prior to diagnosis was caused by this exposure. Diagnosis of this causal relationship like diagnosis of any disease - malignant or not - requires always some subjective judgments by the diagnostician. It is, therefore, illusory to believe that tables based on actuarial data can provide objective estimates of the chance that a cancer diagnosed in an individual is radiogenic. It is argued that such tables can only provide a base from which the diagnostician(s) deviate in one direction or the other according to his (their) individual (consensual) judgment. Acceptance of a physician's diagnostic judgment by patients is commonplace. Similar widespread acceptance of expert judgment by claimants in radiation compensation cases does presently not exist. Judicious use of the present radioepidemiological tables prepared by the Working Group of the National Institutes of Health or of updated future versions of similar tables may improve the situation. 20 references
Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2014-03-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.
Computing Distances between Probabilistic Automata
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mathieu Tracol
2011-07-01
Full Text Available We present relaxed notions of simulation and bisimulation on Probabilistic Automata (PA, that allow some error epsilon. When epsilon is zero we retrieve the usual notions of bisimulation and simulation on PAs. We give logical characterisations of these notions by choosing suitable logics which differ from the elementary ones, L with negation and L without negation, by the modal operator. Using flow networks, we show how to compute the relations in PTIME. This allows the definition of an efficiently computable non-discounted distance between the states of a PA. A natural modification of this distance is introduced, to obtain a discounted distance, which weakens the influence of long term transitions. We compare our notions of distance to others previously defined and illustrate our approach on various examples. We also show that our distance is not expansive with respect to process algebra operators. Although L without negation is a suitable logic to characterise epsilon-(bisimulation on deterministic PAs, it is not for general PAs; interestingly, we prove that it does characterise weaker notions, called a priori epsilon-(bisimulation, which we prove to be NP-difficult to decide.
Probabilistic modeling of children's handwriting
Puri, Mukta; Srihari, Sargur N.; Hanson, Lisa
2013-12-01
There is little work done in the analysis of children's handwriting, which can be useful in developing automatic evaluation systems and in quantifying handwriting individuality. We consider the statistical analysis of children's handwriting in early grades. Samples of handwriting of children in Grades 2-4 who were taught the Zaner-Bloser style were considered. The commonly occurring word "and" written in cursive style as well as hand-print were extracted from extended writing. The samples were assigned feature values by human examiners using a truthing tool. The human examiners looked at how the children constructed letter formations in their writing, looking for similarities and differences from the instructions taught in the handwriting copy book. These similarities and differences were measured using a feature space distance measure. Results indicate that the handwriting develops towards more conformity with the class characteristics of the Zaner-Bloser copybook which, with practice, is the expected result. Bayesian networks were learnt from the data to enable answering various probabilistic queries, such as determining students who may continue to produce letter formations as taught during lessons in school and determining the students who will develop a different and/or variation of the those letter formations and the number of different types of letter formations.
Probabilistic description of traffic flow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mahnke, R.; Kaupuzs, J.; Lubashevsky, I.
2005-01-01
A stochastic description of traffic flow, called probabilistic traffic flow theory, is developed. The general master equation is applied to relatively simple models to describe the formation and dissolution of traffic congestions. Our approach is mainly based on spatially homogeneous systems like periodically closed circular rings without on- and off-ramps. We consider a stochastic one-step process of growth or shrinkage of a car cluster (jam). As generalization we discuss the coexistence of several car clusters of different sizes. The basic problem is to find a physically motivated ansatz for the transition rates of the attachment and detachment of individual cars to a car cluster consistent with the empirical observations in real traffic. The emphasis is put on the analogy with first-order phase transitions and nucleation phenomena in physical systems like supersaturated vapour. The results are summarized in the flux-density relation, the so-called fundamental diagram of traffic flow, and compared with empirical data. Different regimes of traffic flow are discussed: free flow, congested mode as stop-and-go regime, and heavy viscous traffic. The traffic breakdown is studied based on the master equation as well as the Fokker-Planck approximation to calculate mean first passage times or escape rates. Generalizations are developed to allow for on-ramp effects. The calculated flux-density relation and characteristic breakdown times coincide with empirical data measured on highways. Finally, a brief summary of the stochastic cellular automata approach is given
Distribution functions of probabilistic automata
Vatan, F.
2001-01-01
Each probabilistic automaton M over an alphabet A defines a probability measure Prob sub(M) on the set of all finite and infinite words over A. We can identify a k letter alphabet A with the set {0, 1,..., k-1}, and, hence, we can consider every finite or infinite word w over A as a radix k expansion of a real number X(w) in the interval [0, 1]. This makes X(w) a random variable and the distribution function of M is defined as usual: F(x) := Prob sub(M) { w: X(w) automata in detail. Automata with continuous distribution functions are characterized. By a new, and much more easier method, it is shown that the distribution function F(x) is an analytic function if it is a polynomial. Finally, answering a question posed by D. Knuth and A. Yao, we show that a polynomial distribution function F(x) on [0, 1] can be generated by a prob abilistic automaton iff all the roots of F'(x) = 0 in this interval, if any, are rational numbers. For this, we define two dynamical systems on the set of polynomial distributions and study attracting fixed points of random composition of these two systems.
Probabilistic transport models for fusion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Milligen, B.Ph. van; Carreras, B.A.; Lynch, V.E.; Sanchez, R.
2005-01-01
A generalization of diffusive (Fickian) transport is considered, in which particle motion is described by probability distributions. We design a simple model that includes a critical mechanism to switch between two transport channels, and show that it exhibits various interesting characteristics, suggesting that the ideas of probabilistic transport might provide a framework for the description of a range of unusual transport phenomena observed in fusion plasmas. The model produces power degradation and profile consistency, as well as a scaling of the confinement time with system size reminiscent of the gyro-Bohm/Bohm scalings observed in fusion plasmas, and rapid propagation of disturbances. In the present work we show how this model may also produce on-axis peaking of the profiles with off-axis fuelling. It is important to note that the fluid limit of a simple model like this, characterized by two transport channels, does not correspond to the usual (Fickian) transport models commonly used for modelling transport in fusion plasmas, and behaves in a fundamentally different way. (author)
Prospects for probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirschberg, S.
1992-01-01
This article provides some reflections on future developments of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in view of the present state of the art and evaluates current trends in the use of PSA for safety management. The main emphasis is on Level 1 PSA, although Level 2 aspects are also highlighted to some extent. As a starting point, the role of PSA is outlined from a historical perspective, demonstrating the rapid expansion of the uses of PSA. In this context the wide spectrum of PSA applications and the associated benefits to the users are in focus. It should be kept in mind, however, that PSA, in spite of its merits, is not a self-standing safety tool. It complements deterministic analysis and thus improves understanding and facilitating prioritization of safety issues. Significant progress in handling PSA limitations - such as reliability data, common-cause failures, human interactions, external events, accident progression, containment performance, and source-term issues - is described. This forms a background for expected future developments of PSA. Among the most important issues on the agenda for the future are PSA scope extensions, methodological improvements and computer code advancements, and full exploitation of the potential benefits of applications to operational safety management. Many PSA uses, if properly exercised, lead to safety improvements as well as major burden reductions. The article provides, in addition, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) perspective on the topics covered, as reflected in the current PSA programs of the agency. 74 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab
Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach
Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip
2014-05-01
Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Jae Yeol; Sim, Jae Gi; Ko, Myoung Soo; Kim, Chang Hyun; Kim, Hun Cho
2001-01-01
In this study, researchers developing the estimative algorithm for artificial defects in semiconductor packages and performing it by pattern recognition technology. For this purpose, the estimative algorithm was included that researchers made software with MATLAB. The software consists of some procedures including ultrasonic image acquisition, equalization filtering, Self-Organizing Map and Probabilistic Neural Network. Self-Organizing Map and Probabilistic Neural Network are belong to methods of Neural Networks. And the pattern recognition technology has applied to classify three kinds of detective patterns in semiconductor packages. This study presumes probability density function from a sample of learning and present which is automatically determine method. PNN can distinguish flaws very difficult distinction as well as. This can do parallel process to stand in a row we confirm that is very efficiently classifier if we applied many data real the process.
A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.
Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris
2017-10-30
Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji
2017-07-26
Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.
Fatimah, F.; Rosadi, D.; Hakim, R. B. F.
2018-03-01
In this paper, we motivate and introduce probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets for handling decision making problem in the presence of positive and negative parameters. We propose several types of algorithms related to this problem. Our procedures are flexible and adaptable. An example on real data is also given.
Mori, Ryuhei
2015-01-01
The holographic transformation, belief propagation and loop calculus are generalized to problems in generalized probabilistic theories including quantum mechanics. In this work, the partition function of classical factor graph is represented by an inner product of two high-dimensional vectors both of which can be decomposed to tensor products of low-dimensional vectors. On the representation, the holographic transformation is clearly understood by using adjoint linear maps. Furthermore, on th...
The probabilistic innovation theoretical framework
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chris W. Callaghan
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Background: Despite technological advances that offer new opportunities for solving societal problems in real time, knowledge management theory development has largely not kept pace with these developments. This article seeks to offer useful insights into how more effective theory development in this area could be enabled. Aim: This article suggests different streams of literature for inclusion into a theoretical framework for an emerging stream of research, termed ‘probabilistic innovation’, which seeks to develop a system of real-time research capability. The objective of this research is therefore to provide a synthesis of a range of diverse literatures, and to provide useful insights into how research enabled by crowdsourced research and development can potentially be used to address serious knowledge problems in real time. Setting: This research suggests that knowledge management theory can provide an anchor for a new stream of research contributing to the development of real-time knowledge problem solving. Methods: This conceptual article seeks to re-conceptualise the problem of real-time research and locate this knowledge problem in relation to a host of rapidly developing streams of literature. In doing so, a novel perspective of societal problem-solving is enabled. Results: An analysis of theory and literature suggests that certain rapidly developing streams of literature might more effectively contribute to societally important real-time research problem solving if these steams are united under a theoretical framework with this goal as its explicit focus. Conclusion: Although the goal of real-time research is as yet not attainable, research that contributes to its attainment may ultimately make an important contribution to society.
Probabilistic modeling of caprock leakage from seismic reflection data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zunino, Andrea; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Bergjofd-Kitterød, Ingjerd
We illustrate a methodology which helps to perform a leakage risk analysis for a CO2 reservoir based on a consistent, probabilistic approach to geophysical and geostatistical inversion. Generally, risk assessments of storage complexes are based on geological models and simulations of CO2 movement...... within the storage complexes. The geological models are built on top of geophysical data such as seismic surveys, geological information and well logs from the reservoir or nearby regions. The risk assessment of CO2 storage requires a careful analysis which accounts for all sources of uncertainty....... However, at present, no well-defined and consistent method for mapping the true uncertainty related to the geophysical data and how that uncertainty affects the overall risk assessment for the potential storage site is available. To properly quantify the uncertainties and to avoid unrealistic...
Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.
Raftery, Adrian E
2016-12-01
Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don't need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications.
Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts
Raftery, Adrian E.
2015-01-01
Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don’t need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications. PMID:28446941
Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.
Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark
2015-07-08
We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.
Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer
2011-01-01
We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.
bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections
Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.
2016-01-01
We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933
Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara
2017-01-01
In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful...... studies on bankruptcy detection, seldom probabilistic approaches were carried out. In this paper we assume a probabilistic point-of-view by applying Gaussian Processes (GP) in the context of bankruptcy prediction, comparing it against the Support Vector Machines (SVM) and the Logistic Regression (LR......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...
Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cooke, Roger M.; Nauta, Maarten; Havelaar, Arie H.; Fels, Ine van der
2006-01-01
We discuss an application of probabilistic inversion techniques to a model of campylobacter transmission in chicken processing lines. Such techniques are indicated when we wish to quantify a model which is new and perhaps unfamiliar to the expert community. In this case there are no measurements for estimating model parameters, and experts are typically unable to give a considered judgment. In such cases, experts are asked to quantify their uncertainty regarding variables which can be predicted by the model. The experts' distributions (after combination) are then pulled back onto the parameter space of the model, a process termed 'probabilistic inversion'. This study illustrates two such techniques, iterative proportional fitting (IPF) and PARmeter fitting for uncertain models (PARFUM). In addition, we illustrate how expert judgement on predicted observable quantities in combination with probabilistic inversion may be used for model validation and/or model criticism
bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hana Ševčíková
2016-12-01
Full Text Available We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.
Probabilistic Design of Wave Energy Devices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Ferreira, C.B.
2011-01-01
Wave energy has a large potential for contributing significantly to production of renewable energy. However, the wave energy sector is still not able to deliver cost competitive and reliable solutions. But the sector has already demonstrated several proofs of concepts. The design of wave energy...... devices is a new and expanding technical area where there is no tradition for probabilistic design—in fact very little full scale devices has been build to date, so it can be said that no design tradition really exists in this area. For this reason it is considered to be of great importance to develop...... and advocate for a probabilistic design approach, as it is assumed (in other areas this has been demonstrated) that this leads to more economical designs compared to designs based on deterministic methods. In the present paper a general framework for probabilistic design and reliability analysis of wave energy...
Probabilistic Learning by Rodent Grid Cells.
Cheung, Allen
2016-10-01
Mounting evidence shows mammalian brains are probabilistic computers, but the specific cells involved remain elusive. Parallel research suggests that grid cells of the mammalian hippocampal formation are fundamental to spatial cognition but their diverse response properties still defy explanation. No plausible model exists which explains stable grids in darkness for twenty minutes or longer, despite being one of the first results ever published on grid cells. Similarly, no current explanation can tie together grid fragmentation and grid rescaling, which show very different forms of flexibility in grid responses when the environment is varied. Other properties such as attractor dynamics and grid anisotropy seem to be at odds with one another unless additional properties are assumed such as a varying velocity gain. Modelling efforts have largely ignored the breadth of response patterns, while also failing to account for the disastrous effects of sensory noise during spatial learning and recall, especially in darkness. Here, published electrophysiological evidence from a range of experiments are reinterpreted using a novel probabilistic learning model, which shows that grid cell responses are accurately predicted by a probabilistic learning process. Diverse response properties of probabilistic grid cells are statistically indistinguishable from rat grid cells across key manipulations. A simple coherent set of probabilistic computations explains stable grid fields in darkness, partial grid rescaling in resized arenas, low-dimensional attractor grid cell dynamics, and grid fragmentation in hairpin mazes. The same computations also reconcile oscillatory dynamics at the single cell level with attractor dynamics at the cell ensemble level. Additionally, a clear functional role for boundary cells is proposed for spatial learning. These findings provide a parsimonious and unified explanation of grid cell function, and implicate grid cells as an accessible neuronal population
Probabilistic Damage Stability Calculations for Ships
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jørgen Juncher
1996-01-01
The aim of these notes is to provide background material for the present probabilistic damage stability rules fro dry cargo ships.The formulas for the damage statistics are derived and shortcomings as well as possible improvements are discussed. The advantage of the definiton of fictitious...... compartments in the formulation of a computer-based general procedure for probabilistic damaged stability assessment is shown. Some comments are given on the current state of knowledge on the ship survivability in damaged conditions. Finally, problems regarding proper account of water ingress through openings...
Quantum logic networks for probabilistic teleportation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
刘金明; 张永生; 等
2003-01-01
By eans of the primitive operations consisting of single-qubit gates.two-qubit controlled-not gates,Von Neuman measurement and classically controlled operations.,we construct efficient quantum logic networks for implementing probabilistic teleportation of a single qubit,a two-particle entangled state,and an N-particle entanglement.Based on the quantum networks,we show that after the partially entangled states are concentrated into maximal entanglement,the above three kinds of probabilistic teleportation are the same as the standard teleportation using the corresponding maximally entangled states as the quantum channels.
Probabilistic Durability Analysis in Advanced Engineering Design
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Kudzys
2000-01-01
Full Text Available Expedience of probabilistic durability concepts and approaches in advanced engineering design of building materials, structural members and systems is considered. Target margin values of structural safety and serviceability indices are analyzed and their draft values are presented. Analytical methods of the cumulative coefficient of correlation and the limit transient action effect for calculation of reliability indices are given. Analysis can be used for probabilistic durability assessment of carrying and enclosure metal, reinforced concrete, wood, plastic, masonry both homogeneous and sandwich or composite structures and some kinds of equipments. Analysis models can be applied in other engineering fields.
Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
1988-01-01
Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....
Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....
Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.
1985-01-01
This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions
Probabilistic calculation of dose commitment from uranium mill tailings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1983-10-01
The report discusses in a general way considerations of uncertainty in relation to probabilistic modelling. An example of a probabilistic calculation applied to the behaviour of uranium mill tailings is given
Probabilistic inversion in priority setting of emerging zoonoses.
Kurowicka, D.; Bucura, C.; Cooke, R.; Havelaar, A.H.
2010-01-01
This article presents methodology of applying probabilistic inversion in combination with expert judgment in priority setting problem. Experts rank scenarios according to severity. A linear multi-criteria analysis model underlying the expert preferences is posited. Using probabilistic inversion, a
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Othman, A.A.; El-Hemamy, S.T.
2000-01-01
Probabilistic strong motion maps of Egypt are derived by applying Gumbel models and likelihood method to 8 earthquake source zones in Egypt and adjacent regions. Peak horizontal acceleration is mapped. Seismic data are collected from Helwan Catalog (1900-1997), regional catalog of earthquakes from the International Seismological Center (ISC,1910-1993) and earthquake data reports of US Department of International Geological Survey (USCGS, 1900-1994). Iso-seismic maps are also available for some events, which occurred in Egypt. Some earthquake source zones are well defined on the basis of both tectonics and average seismicity rates, but a lack of understanding of the near field effects of the large earthquakes prohibits accurate estimates of ground motion in their vicinity. Some source zones have no large-scale crustal features or zones of weakness that can explain the seismicity and must, therefore, be defined simply as concentrations of seismic activity with no geological or geophysical controls on the boundaries. Other source zones lack information on low-magnitude seismicity that would be representative of longer periods of time. Comparisons of the new probabilistic ground motion estimates in Egypt with equivalent estimates made in 1990 have been done. The new ground motion estimates are used to produce a new peak ground acceleration map to replace the 1990 peak acceleration zoning maps in the Building code of Egypt. (author)
Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.
1989-11-01
A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs
Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework
Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo
2011-01-01
The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is r...
A common fixed point for operators in probabilistic normed spaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghaemi, M.B.; Lafuerza-Guillen, Bernardo; Razani, A.
2009-01-01
Probabilistic Metric spaces was introduced by Karl Menger. Alsina, Schweizer and Sklar gave a general definition of probabilistic normed space based on the definition of Menger [Alsina C, Schweizer B, Sklar A. On the definition of a probabilistic normed spaces. Aequationes Math 1993;46:91-8]. Here, we consider the equicontinuity of a class of linear operators in probabilistic normed spaces and finally, a common fixed point theorem is proved. Application to quantum Mechanic is considered.
Statistical methods in physical mapping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nelson, D.O.
1995-05-01
One of the great success stories of modern molecular genetics has been the ability of biologists to isolate and characterize the genes responsible for serious inherited diseases like fragile X syndrome, cystic fibrosis and myotonic muscular dystrophy. This dissertation concentrates on constructing high-resolution physical maps. It demonstrates how probabilistic modeling and statistical analysis can aid molecular geneticists in the tasks of planning, execution, and evaluation of physical maps of chromosomes and large chromosomal regions. The dissertation is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the field of physical mapping, describing the role of physical mapping in gene isolation and ill past efforts at mapping chromosomal regions. The next two chapters review and extend known results on predicting progress in large mapping projects. Such predictions help project planners decide between various approaches and tactics for mapping large regions of the human genome. Chapter 2 shows how probability models have been used in the past to predict progress in mapping projects. Chapter 3 presents new results, based on stationary point process theory, for progress measures for mapping projects based on directed mapping strategies. Chapter 4 describes in detail the construction of all initial high-resolution physical map for human chromosome 19. This chapter introduces the probability and statistical models involved in map construction in the context of a large, ongoing physical mapping project. Chapter 5 concentrates on one such model, the trinomial model. This chapter contains new results on the large-sample behavior of this model, including distributional results, asymptotic moments, and detection error rates. In addition, it contains an optimality result concerning experimental procedures based on the trinomial model. The last chapter explores unsolved problems and describes future work
Statistical methods in physical mapping
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nelson, David O. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
1995-05-01
One of the great success stories of modern molecular genetics has been the ability of biologists to isolate and characterize the genes responsible for serious inherited diseases like fragile X syndrome, cystic fibrosis and myotonic muscular dystrophy. This dissertation concentrates on constructing high-resolution physical maps. It demonstrates how probabilistic modeling and statistical analysis can aid molecular geneticists in the tasks of planning, execution, and evaluation of physical maps of chromosomes and large chromosomal regions. The dissertation is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the field of physical mapping, describing the role of physical mapping in gene isolation and ill past efforts at mapping chromosomal regions. The next two chapters review and extend known results on predicting progress in large mapping projects. Such predictions help project planners decide between various approaches and tactics for mapping large regions of the human genome. Chapter 2 shows how probability models have been used in the past to predict progress in mapping projects. Chapter 3 presents new results, based on stationary point process theory, for progress measures for mapping projects based on directed mapping strategies. Chapter 4 describes in detail the construction of all initial high-resolution physical map for human chromosome 19. This chapter introduces the probability and statistical models involved in map construction in the context of a large, ongoing physical mapping project. Chapter 5 concentrates on one such model, the trinomial model. This chapter contains new results on the large-sample behavior of this model, including distributional results, asymptotic moments, and detection error rates. In addition, it contains an optimality result concerning experimental procedures based on the trinomial model. The last chapter explores unsolved problems and describes future work.
Decomposing the Hounsfield unit: probabilistic segmentation of brain tissue in computed tomography.
Kemmling, A; Wersching, H; Berger, K; Knecht, S; Groden, C; Nölte, I
2012-03-01
The aim of this study was to present and evaluate a standardized technique for brain segmentation of cranial computed tomography (CT) using probabilistic partial volume tissue maps based on a database of high resolution T1 magnetic resonance images (MRI). Probabilistic tissue maps of white matter (WM), gray matter (GM) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were derived from 600 normal brain MRIs (3.0 Tesla, T1-3D-turbo-field-echo) of 2 large community-based population studies (BiDirect and SEARCH Health studies). After partial tissue segmentation (FAST 4.0), MR images were linearly registered to MNI-152 standard space (FLIRT 5.5) with non-linear refinement (FNIRT 1.0) to obtain non-binary probabilistic volume images for each tissue class which were subsequently used for CT segmentation. From 150 normal cerebral CT scans a customized reference image in standard space was constructed with iterative non-linear registration to MNI-152 space. The inverse warp of tissue-specific probability maps to CT space (MNI-152 to individual CT) was used to decompose a CT image into tissue specific components (GM, WM, CSF). Potential benefits and utility of this novel approach with regard to unsupervised quantification of CT images and possible visual enhancement are addressed. Illustrative examples of tissue segmentation in different pathological cases including perfusion CT are presented. Automated tissue segmentation of cranial CT images using highly refined tissue probability maps derived from high resolution MR images is feasible. Potential applications include automated quantification of WM in leukoaraiosis, CSF in hydrocephalic patients, GM in neurodegeneration and ischemia and perfusion maps with separate assessment of GM and WM.
Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates incorporating site effects - An example from Indiana, U.S.A
Hasse, J.S.; Park, C.H.; Nowack, R.L.; Hill, J.R.
2010-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published probabilistic earthquake hazard maps for the United States based on current knowledge of past earthquake activity and geological constraints on earthquake potential. These maps for the central and eastern United States assume standard site conditions with Swave velocities of 760 m/s in the top 30 m. For urban and infrastructure planning and long-term budgeting, the public is interested in similar probabilistic seismic hazard maps that take into account near-surface geological materials. We have implemented a probabilistic method for incorporating site effects into the USGS seismic hazard analysis that takes into account the first-order effects of the surface geologic conditions. The thicknesses of sediments, which play a large role in amplification, were derived from a P-wave refraction database with over 13, 000 profiles, and a preliminary geology-based velocity model was constructed from available information on S-wave velocities. An interesting feature of the preliminary hazard maps incorporating site effects is the approximate factor of two increases in the 1-Hz spectral acceleration with 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for parts of the greater Indianapolis metropolitan region and surrounding parts of central Indiana. This effect is primarily due to the relatively thick sequence of sediments infilling ancient bedrock topography that has been deposited since the Pleistocene Epoch. As expected, the Late Pleistocene and Holocene depositional systems of the Wabash and Ohio Rivers produce additional amplification in the southwestern part of Indiana. Ground motions decrease, as would be expected, toward the bedrock units in south-central Indiana, where motions are significantly lower than the values on the USGS maps.
Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography
Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Cord, Anna F; Kessler, Michael; Kreft, Holger; Kühn, Ingolf; Pompe, Sven; Sandel, Brody; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Smith, Adam B; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Tuomisto, Hanna; Weigelt, Patrick; Wesche, Karsten
2016-01-01
Aim To provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes. Innovation Probabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjuncti...
Probabilistic analysis of tokamak plasma disruptions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sanzo, D.L.; Apostolakis, G.E.
1985-01-01
An approximate analytical solution to the heat conduction equations used in modeling component melting and vaporization resulting from plasma disruptions is presented. This solution is then used to propagate uncertainties in the input data characterizing disruptions, namely, energy density and disruption time, to obtain a probabilistic description of the output variables of interest, material melted and vaporized. (orig.)
Strong Ideal Convergence in Probabilistic Metric Spaces
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In the present paper we introduce the concepts of strongly ideal convergent sequence and strong ideal Cauchy sequence in a probabilistic metric (PM) space endowed with the strong topology, and establish some basic facts. Next, we define the strong ideal limit points and the strong ideal cluster points of a sequence in this ...
Quantum Probabilistic Dyadic Second-Order Logic
Baltag, A.; Bergfeld, J.M.; Kishida, K.; Sack, J.; Smets, S.J.L.; Zhong, S.; Libkin, L.; Kohlenbach, U.; de Queiroz, R.
2013-01-01
We propose an expressive but decidable logic for reasoning about quantum systems. The logic is endowed with tensor operators to capture properties of composite systems, and with probabilistic predication formulas P ≥ r (s), saying that a quantum system in state s will yield the answer ‘yes’ (i.e.
Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure
Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.; Fossum, A. F.
1990-01-01
A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.
Probabilistic Programming : A True Verification Challenge
Katoen, Joost P.; Finkbeiner, Bernd; Pu, Geguang; Zhang, Lijun
2015-01-01
Probabilistic programs [6] are sequential programs, written in languages like C, Java, Scala, or ML, with two added constructs: (1) the ability to draw values at random from probability distributions, and (2) the ability to condition values of variables in a program through observations. For a
Probabilistic calculation for angular dependence collision
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Villarino, E.A.
1990-01-01
This collision probabilistic method is broadly used in cylindrical geometry (in one- or two-dimensions). It constitutes a powerful tool for the heterogeneous Response Method where, the coupling current is of the cosine type, that is, without angular dependence at azimuthal angle θ and proportional to μ (cosine of the θ polar angle). (Author) [es
Probabilistic safety assessment in radioactive waste disposal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Robinson, P.C.
1987-07-01
Probabilistic safety assessment codes are now widely used in radioactive waste disposal assessments. This report gives an overview of the current state of the field. The relationship between the codes and the regulations covering radioactive waste disposal is discussed and the characteristics of current codes is described. The problems of verification and validation are considered. (author)
Ignorability in Statistical and Probabilistic Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2005-01-01
When dealing with incomplete data in statistical learning, or incomplete observations in probabilistic inference, one needs to distinguish the fact that a certain event is observed from the fact that the observed event has happened. Since the modeling and computational complexities entailed...
Probabilistic fuzzy systems as additive fuzzy systems
Almeida, R.J.; Verbeek, N.; Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.; Laurent, A.; Strauss, O.; Bouchon-Meunier, B.; Yager, R.
2014-01-01
Probabilistic fuzzy systems combine a linguistic description of the system behaviour with statistical properties of data. It was originally derived based on Zadeh’s concept of probability of a fuzzy event. Two possible and equivalent additive reasoning schemes were proposed, that lead to the
Probabilistic studies for a safety assurance program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iyer, S.S.; Davis, J.F.
1985-01-01
The adequate supply of energy is always a matter of concern for any country. Nuclear power has played, and will continue to play an important role in supplying this energy. However, safety in nuclear power production is a fundamental prerequisite in fulfilling this role. This paper outlines a program to ensure safe operation of a nuclear power plant utilizing the Probabilistic Safety Studies
Probabilistic safety goals. Phase 3 - Status report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT (Finland)); Knochenhauer, M. (Relcon Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden))
2009-07-15
The first phase of the project (2006) described the status, concepts and history of probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants. The second and third phases (2007-2008) have provided guidance related to the resolution of some of the problems identified, and resulted in a common understanding regarding the definition of safety goals. The basic aim of phase 3 (2009) has been to increase the scope and level of detail of the project, and to start preparations of a guidance document. Based on the conclusions from the previous project phases, the following issues have been covered: 1) Extension of international overview. Analysis of results from the questionnaire performed within the ongoing OECD/NEA WGRISK activity on probabilistic safety criteria, including participation in the preparation of the working report for OECD/NEA/WGRISK (to be finalised in phase 4). 2) Use of subsidiary criteria and relations between these (to be finalised in phase 4). 3) Numerical criteria when using probabilistic analyses in support of deterministic safety analysis (to be finalised in phase 4). 4) Guidance for the formulation, application and interpretation of probabilistic safety criteria (to be finalised in phase 4). (LN)
Safety Verification for Probabilistic Hybrid Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhang, Lijun; She, Zhikun; Ratschan, Stefan
2010-01-01
The interplay of random phenomena and continuous real-time control deserves increased attention for instance in wireless sensing and control applications. Safety verification for such systems thus needs to consider probabilistic variations of systems with hybrid dynamics. In safety verification o...... on a number of case studies, tackled using a prototypical implementation....
Ambient Surveillance by Probabilistic-Possibilistic Perception
Bittermann, M.S.; Ciftcioglu, O.
2013-01-01
A method for quantifying ambient surveillance is presented, which is based on probabilistic-possibilistic perception. The human surveillance of a scene through observing camera sensed images on a monitor is modeled in three steps. First immersion of the observer is simulated by modeling perception
HERMES probabilistic risk assessment. Pilot study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parisot, F.; Munoz, J.
1993-01-01
The study was performed in 1989 of the contribution of probabilistic analysis for the optimal construction of system safety status in aeronautical and European nuclear industries, shows the growing trends towards incorporation of quantitative safety assessment and lead to an agreement to undertake a prototype proof study on Hermes. The main steps of the study and results are presented in the paper
Some probabilistic properties of fractional point processes
Garra, Roberto; Orsingher, Enzo; Scavino, Marco
2017-01-01
P{T-k(alpha) < infinity} are explicitly obtained and analyzed. The processes N-f (t) are time-changed Poisson processes N( H-f (t)) with subordinators H-f (t) and here we study N(Sigma H-n(j= 1)f j (t)) and obtain probabilistic features
Strong Statistical Convergence in Probabilistic Metric Spaces
Şençimen, Celaleddin; Pehlivan, Serpil
2008-01-01
In this article, we introduce the concepts of strongly statistically convergent sequence and strong statistically Cauchy sequence in a probabilistic metric (PM) space endowed with the strong topology, and establish some basic facts. Next, we define the strong statistical limit points and the strong statistical cluster points of a sequence in this space and investigate the relations between these concepts.
Effectiveness of Securities with Fuzzy Probabilistic Return
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krzysztof Piasecki
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The generalized fuzzy present value of a security is defined here as fuzzy valued utility of cash flow. The generalized fuzzy present value cannot depend on the value of future cash flow. There exists such a generalized fuzzy present value which is not a fuzzy present value in the sense given by some authors. If the present value is a fuzzy number and the future value is a random one, then the return rate is given as a probabilistic fuzzy subset on a real line. This kind of return rate is called a fuzzy probabilistic return. The main goal of this paper is to derive the family of effective securities with fuzzy probabilistic return. Achieving this goal requires the study of the basic parameters characterizing fuzzy probabilistic return. Therefore, fuzzy expected value and variance are determined for this case of return. These results are a starting point for constructing a three-dimensional image. The set of effective securities is introduced as the Pareto optimal set determined by the maximization of the expected return rate and minimization of the variance. Finally, the set of effective securities is distinguished as a fuzzy set. These results are obtained without the assumption that the distribution of future values is Gaussian. (original abstract
Dialectical Multivalued Logic and Probabilistic Theory
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Luis Usó Doménech
2017-02-01
Full Text Available There are two probabilistic algebras: one for classical probability and the other for quantum mechanics. Naturally, it is the relation to the object that decides, as in the case of logic, which algebra is to be used. From a paraconsistent multivalued logic therefore, one can derive a probability theory, adding the correspondence between truth value and fortuity.
Revisiting the formal foundation of Probabilistic Databases
Wanders, B.; van Keulen, Maurice
2015-01-01
One of the core problems in soft computing is dealing with uncertainty in data. In this paper, we revisit the formal foundation of a class of probabilistic databases with the purpose to (1) obtain data model independence, (2) separate metadata on uncertainty and probabilities from the raw data, (3)
Probabilistic Resource Analysis by Program Transformation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kirkeby, Maja Hanne; Rosendahl, Mads
2016-01-01
The aim of a probabilistic resource analysis is to derive a probability distribution of possible resource usage for a program from a probability distribution of its input. We present an automated multi-phase rewriting based method to analyze programs written in a subset of C. It generates...
Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model towards increasing the lead-time of flash flood forecasts in South Africa. ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based rainfall forecasts are verified against rainfall estimated by the SAFFG system. The approach ...
Probabilistic safety assessment goals in Canada
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Snell, V.G.
1986-01-01
CANDU safety philosphy, both in design and in licensing, has always had a strong bias towards quantitative probabilistically-based goals derived from comparative safety. Formal probabilistic safety assessment began in Canada as a design tool. The influence of this carried over later on into the definition of the deterministic safety guidelines used in CANDU licensing. Design goals were further developed which extended the consequence/frequency spectrum of 'acceptable' events, from the two points defined by the deterministic single/dual failure analysis, to a line passing through lower and higher frequencies. Since these were design tools, a complete risk summation was not necessary, allowing a cutoff at low event frequencies while preserving the identification of the most significant safety-related events. These goals gave a logical framework for making decisions on implementing design changes proposed as a result of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. Performing this analysis became a regulatory requirement, and the design goals remained the framework under which this was submitted. Recently, there have been initiatives to incorporate more detailed probabilistic safety goals into the regulatory process in Canada. These range from far-reaching safety optimization across society, to initiatives aimed at the nuclear industry only. The effectiveness of the latter is minor at very low and very high event frequencies; at medium frequencies, a justification against expenditures per life saved in other industries should be part of the goal setting
Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reed, J.W.
1985-01-01
The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table
Probabilistic safety goals. Phase 3 - Status report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holmberg, J.-E.; Knochenhauer, M.
2009-07-01
The first phase of the project (2006) described the status, concepts and history of probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants. The second and third phases (2007-2008) have provided guidance related to the resolution of some of the problems identified, and resulted in a common understanding regarding the definition of safety goals. The basic aim of phase 3 (2009) has been to increase the scope and level of detail of the project, and to start preparations of a guidance document. Based on the conclusions from the previous project phases, the following issues have been covered: 1) Extension of international overview. Analysis of results from the questionnaire performed within the ongoing OECD/NEA WGRISK activity on probabilistic safety criteria, including participation in the preparation of the working report for OECD/NEA/WGRISK (to be finalised in phase 4). 2) Use of subsidiary criteria and relations between these (to be finalised in phase 4). 3) Numerical criteria when using probabilistic analyses in support of deterministic safety analysis (to be finalised in phase 4). 4) Guidance for the formulation, application and interpretation of probabilistic safety criteria (to be finalised in phase 4). (LN)
Probabilistic Relational Structures and Their Applications
Domotor, Zoltan
The principal objects of the investigation reported were, first, to study qualitative probability relations on Boolean algebras, and secondly, to describe applications in the theories of probability logic, information, automata, and probabilistic measurement. The main contribution of this work is stated in 10 definitions and 20 theorems. The basic…
Branching bisimulation congruence for probabilistic systems
Andova, S.; Georgievska, S.; Trcka, N.
2012-01-01
A notion of branching bisimilarity for the alternating model of probabilistic systems, compatible with parallel composition, is defined. For a congruence result, an internal transition immediately followed by a non-trivial probability distribution is not considered inert. A weaker definition of
On Probabilistic Automata in Continuous Time
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Eisentraut, Christian; Hermanns, Holger; Zhang, Lijun
2010-01-01
We develop a compositional behavioural model that integrates a variation of probabilistic automata into a conservative extension of interactive Markov chains. The model is rich enough to embody the semantics of generalised stochastic Petri nets. We define strong and weak bisimulations and discuss...
Bisimulations Meet PCTL Equivalences for Probabilistic Automata
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun; Godskesen, Jens Chr.
2011-01-01
Probabilistic automata (PA) [20] have been successfully applied in the formal verification of concurrent and stochastic systems. Efficient model checking algorithms have been studied, where the most often used logics for expressing properties are based on PCTL [11] and its extension PCTL∗ [4...
Validation of in vitro probabilistic tractography
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dyrby, Tim B.; Sogaard, L.V.; Parker, G.J.
2007-01-01
assessed the anatomical validity and reproducibility of in vitro multi-fiber probabilistic tractography against two invasive tracers: the histochemically detectable biotinylated dextran amine and manganese enhanced magnetic resonance imaging. Post mortern DWI was used to ensure that most of the sources...
Searching Algorithms Implemented on Probabilistic Systolic Arrays
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kramosil, Ivan
1996-01-01
Roč. 25, č. 1 (1996), s. 7-45 ISSN 0308-1079 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/93/0781 Keywords : searching algorithms * probabilistic algorithms * systolic arrays * parallel algorithms Impact factor: 0.214, year: 1996
Financial Markets Analysis by Probabilistic Fuzzy Modelling
J.H. van den Berg (Jan); W.-M. van den Bergh (Willem-Max); U. Kaymak (Uzay)
2003-01-01
textabstractFor successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno
Towards decision making via expressive probabilistic ontologies
Acar, Erman; Thorne, Camilo; Stuckenschmidt, Heiner
2015-01-01
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. We propose a framework for automated multi-attribute deci- sion making, employing the probabilistic non-monotonic description log- ics proposed by Lukasiewicz in 2008. Using this framework, we can model artificial agents in decision-making
The Probabilistic Nature of Preferential Choice
Rieskamp, Jorg
2008-01-01
Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes…
A Probabilistic Framework for Curve Evolution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dahl, Vedrana Andersen
2017-01-01
approach include ability to handle textured images, simple generalization to multiple regions, and efficiency in computation. We test our probabilistic framework in combination with parametric (snakes) and geometric (level-sets) curves. The experimental results on composed and natural images demonstrate...
Probabilistic Output Analysis by Program Manipulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rosendahl, Mads; Kirkeby, Maja Hanne
2015-01-01
The aim of a probabilistic output analysis is to derive a probability distribution of possible output values for a program from a probability distribution of its input. We present a method for performing static output analysis, based on program transformation techniques. It generates a probability...
Improved transformer protection using probabilistic neural network ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This article presents a novel technique to distinguish between magnetizing inrush current and internal fault current of power transformer. An algorithm has been developed around the theme of the conventional differential protection method in which parallel combination of Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and Power ...
Financial markets analysis by probabilistic fuzzy modelling
Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, U.; Bergh, van den W.M.
2003-01-01
For successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno (TS)
Probabilistic solution of the Dirac equation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blanchard, P.; Combe, P.
1985-01-01
Various probabilistic representations of the 2, 3 and 4 dimensional Dirac equation are given in terms of expectation with respect to stochastic jump processes and are used to derive the nonrelativistic limit even in the presence of an external electromagnetic field. (orig.)
Mastering probabilistic graphical models using Python
Ankan, Ankur
2015-01-01
If you are a researcher or a machine learning enthusiast, or are working in the data science field and have a basic idea of Bayesian learning or probabilistic graphical models, this book will help you to understand the details of graphical models and use them in your data science problems.
Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia
Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.
2017-12-01
Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region
Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.
2016-08-01
Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana
Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.
2018-05-01
This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana
Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.
2017-12-01
This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.
Multibeam 3D Underwater SLAM with Probabilistic Registration
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Albert Palomer
2016-04-01
Full Text Available This paper describes a pose-based underwater 3D Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM using a multibeam echosounder to produce high consistency underwater maps. The proposed algorithm compounds swath profiles of the seafloor with dead reckoning localization to build surface patches (i.e., point clouds. An Iterative Closest Point (ICP with a probabilistic implementation is then used to register the point clouds, taking into account their uncertainties. The registration process is divided in two steps: (1 point-to-point association for coarse registration and (2 point-to-plane association for fine registration. The point clouds of the surfaces to be registered are sub-sampled in order to decrease both the computation time and also the potential of falling into local minima during the registration. In addition, a heuristic is used to decrease the complexity of the association step of the ICP from O ( n 2 to O ( n . The performance of the SLAM framework is tested using two real world datasets: First, a 2.5D bathymetric dataset obtained with the usual down-looking multibeam sonar configuration, and second, a full 3D underwater dataset acquired with a multibeam sonar mounted on a pan and tilt unit.
Multiaxial probabilistic elastic-plastic constitutive simulations of soils
Sadrinezhad, Arezoo
Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation approach has recently been developed to simulate elastic-plastic constitutive behaviors of materials with uncertain material properties. The FPK equation approach transforms the stochastic constitutive rate equation, which is a stochastic, nonlinear, ordinary differential equation (ODE) in the stress-pseudo time space into a second-order accurate, deterministic, linear FPK partial differential equation (PDE) in the probability density of stress-pseudo time space. This approach does not suffer from the drawbacks of the traditional approaches such as the Monte Carlo approach and the perturbation approach for solving nonlinear ODEs with random coefficients. In this study, the existing one dimensional FPK framework for probabilistic constitutive modeling of soils is extended to multi--dimension. However, the multivariate FPK PDEs cannot be solved using the traditional mathematical techniques such as finite difference techniques due to their high computational cost. Therefore, computationally efficient algorithms based on the Fourier spectral approach are developed for solving a class of FPK PDEs that arises in probabilistic elasto-plasticity. This class includes linear FPK PDEs in (stress) space and (pseudo) time - having space-independent but time-dependent, and both space- and time-dependent coefficients - with impulse initial conditions and reflecting boundary conditions. The solution algorithms, rely on first mapping the stress space of the governing PDE between 0 and 2pi using the change of coordinates rule, followed by approximating the solution of the PDE in the 2pi-periodic domain by a finite Fourier series in the stress space and unknown time-dependent solution coefficients. Finally, the time-dependent solution coefficients are obtained from the initial condition. The accuracy and efficiency of the developed algorithms are tested. The developed algorithms are used to simulate uniaxial and multiaxial, monotonic and cyclic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mengmeng Ma
2015-01-01
Full Text Available To solve the invalidation problem of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence (DS with high conflict in multisensor data fusion, this paper presents a novel combination approach of conflict evidence with different weighting factors using a new probabilistic dissimilarity measure. Firstly, an improved probabilistic transformation function is proposed to map basic belief assignments (BBAs to probabilities. Then, a new dissimilarity measure integrating fuzzy nearness and introduced correlation coefficient is proposed to characterize not only the difference between basic belief functions (BBAs but also the divergence degree of the hypothesis that two BBAs support. Finally, the weighting factors used to reassign conflicts on BBAs are developed and Dempster’s rule is chosen to combine the discounted sources. Simple numerical examples are employed to demonstrate the merit of the proposed method. Through analysis and comparison of the results, the new combination approach can effectively solve the problem of conflict management with better convergence performance and robustness.
Baum, Rex L.; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Lee, Saro; Trofymchuk, Oleksandr M
2014-01-01
Twenty papers were accepted into the session on landslide hazard mapping for oral presentation. The papers presented susceptibility and hazard analysis based on approaches ranging from field-based assessments to statistically based models to assessments that combined hydromechanical and probabilistic components. Many of the studies have taken advantage of increasing availability of remotely sensed data and nearly all relied on Geographic Information Systems to organize and analyze spatial data. The studies used a range of methods for assessing performance and validating hazard and susceptibility models. A few of the studies presented in this session also included some element of landslide risk assessment. This collection of papers clearly demonstrates that a wide range of approaches can lead to useful assessments of landslide susceptibility and hazard.
Park, Hyunjin; Meyer, Charles R.
2012-10-01
A probabilistic atlas provides important information to help segmentation and registration applications in medical image analysis. We construct a probabilistic atlas by picking a target geometry and mapping other training scans onto that target and then summing the results into one probabilistic atlas. By choosing an atlas space close to the desired target, we construct an atlas that represents the population well. Image registration used to map one image geometry onto another is a primary task in atlas building. One of the main parameters of registration is the choice of degrees of freedom (DOFs) of the geometric transform. Herein, we measure the effect of the registration's DOFs on the segmentation performance of the resulting probabilistic atlas. Twenty-three normal abdominal CT scans were used, and four organs (liver, spinal cord, left and right kidneys) were segmented for each scan. A well-known manifold learning method, ISOMAP, was used to find the best target space to build an atlas. In summary, segmentation performance was high for high DOF registrations regardless of the chosen target space, while segmentation performance was lowered for low DOF registrations if a target space was far from the best target space. At the 0.05 level of statistical significance, there were no significant differences at high DOF registrations while there were significant differences at low DOF registrations when choosing different targets.
A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Derby, S.L.
1983-01-01
The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase
A probabilistic model of RNA conformational space
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frellsen, Jes; Moltke, Ida; Thiim, Martin
2009-01-01
, the discrete nature of the fragments necessitates the use of carefully tuned, unphysical energy functions, and their non-probabilistic nature impairs unbiased sampling. We offer a solution to the sampling problem that removes these important limitations: a probabilistic model of RNA structure that allows...... conformations for 9 out of 10 test structures, solely using coarse-grained base-pairing information. In conclusion, the method provides a theoretical and practical solution for a major bottleneck on the way to routine prediction and simulation of RNA structure and dynamics in atomic detail.......The increasing importance of non-coding RNA in biology and medicine has led to a growing interest in the problem of RNA 3-D structure prediction. As is the case for proteins, RNA 3-D structure prediction methods require two key ingredients: an accurate energy function and a conformational sampling...
Generalized probabilistic scale space for image restoration.
Wong, Alexander; Mishra, Akshaya K
2010-10-01
A novel generalized sampling-based probabilistic scale space theory is proposed for image restoration. We explore extending the definition of scale space to better account for both noise and observation models, which is important for producing accurately restored images. A new class of scale-space realizations based on sampling and probability theory is introduced to realize this extended definition in the context of image restoration. Experimental results using 2-D images show that generalized sampling-based probabilistic scale-space theory can be used to produce more accurate restored images when compared with state-of-the-art scale-space formulations, particularly under situations characterized by low signal-to-noise ratios and image degradation.
Probabilistic cloning and deleting of quantum states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feng Yuan; Zhang Shengyu; Ying Mingsheng
2002-01-01
We construct a probabilistic cloning and deleting machine which, taking several copies of an input quantum state, can output a linear superposition of multiple cloning and deleting states. Since the machine can perform cloning and deleting in a single unitary evolution, the probabilistic cloning and other cloning machines proposed in the previous literature can be thought of as special cases of our machine. A sufficient and necessary condition for successful cloning and deleting is presented, and it requires that the copies of an arbitrarily presumed number of the input states are linearly independent. This simply generalizes some results for cloning. We also derive an upper bound for the success probability of the cloning and deleting machine
Probabilistic Modeling of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei
Wind energy is one of several energy sources in the world and a rapidly growing industry in the energy sector. When placed in offshore or onshore locations, wind turbines are exposed to wave excitations, highly dynamic wind loads and/or the wakes from other wind turbines. Therefore, most components...... in a wind turbine experience highly dynamic and time-varying loads. These components may fail due to wear or fatigue, and this can lead to unplanned shutdown repairs that are very costly. The design by deterministic methods using safety factors is generally unable to account for the many uncertainties. Thus......, a reliability assessment should be based on probabilistic methods where stochastic modeling of failures is performed. This thesis focuses on probabilistic models and the stochastic modeling of the fatigue life of the wind turbine drivetrain. Hence, two approaches are considered for stochastic modeling...
A probabilistic model of RNA conformational space
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frellsen, Jes; Moltke, Ida; Thiim, Martin
2009-01-01
efficient sampling of RNA conformations in continuous space, and with associated probabilities. We show that the model captures several key features of RNA structure, such as its rotameric nature and the distribution of the helix lengths. Furthermore, the model readily generates native-like 3-D......, the discrete nature of the fragments necessitates the use of carefully tuned, unphysical energy functions, and their non-probabilistic nature impairs unbiased sampling. We offer a solution to the sampling problem that removes these important limitations: a probabilistic model of RNA structure that allows......The increasing importance of non-coding RNA in biology and medicine has led to a growing interest in the problem of RNA 3-D structure prediction. As is the case for proteins, RNA 3-D structure prediction methods require two key ingredients: an accurate energy function and a conformational sampling...
Probabilistic approach to manipulator kinematics and dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rao, S.S.; Bhatti, P.K.
2001-01-01
A high performance, high speed robotic arm must be able to manipulate objects with a high degree of accuracy and repeatability. As with any other physical system, there are a number of factors causing uncertainties in the behavior of a robotic manipulator. These factors include manufacturing and assembling tolerances, and errors in the joint actuators and controllers. In order to study the effect of these uncertainties on the robotic end-effector and to obtain a better insight into the manipulator behavior, the manipulator kinematics and dynamics are modeled using a probabilistic approach. Based on the probabilistic model, kinematic and dynamic performance criteria are defined to provide measures of the behavior of the robotic end-effector. Techniques are presented to compute the kinematic and dynamic reliabilities of the manipulator. The effects of tolerances associated with the various manipulator parameters on the reliabilities are studied. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the procedures
Probabilistic precursor analysis - an application of PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hari Prasad, M.; Gopika, V.; Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Vaze, K.K.
2011-01-01
Incidents are inevitably part of the operational life of any complex industrial facility, and it is hard to predict how various contributing factors combine to cause the outcome. However, it should be possible to detect the existence of latent conditions that, together with the triggering failure(s), result in abnormal events. These incidents are called precursors. Precursor study, by definition, focuses on how a particular event might have adversely developed. This paper focuses on the events which can be analyzed to assess their potential to develop into core damage situation and looks into extending Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to precursor studies and explains the benefits through a typical case study. A preliminary probabilistic precursor analysis has been carried out for a typical NPP. The major advantages of this approach are the strong potential for augmenting event analysis which is currently carried out purely on deterministic basis. (author)
Probabilistic Analysis of Gas Turbine Field Performance
Gorla, Rama S. R.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.
2002-01-01
A gas turbine thermodynamic cycle was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the performance parameters, which are indices of gas turbine health. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the overall thermal efficiency and net specific power output due to the thermodynamic random variables. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design, enhance performance, increase system availability and make it cost effective. The analysis leads to the selection of the appropriate measurements to be used in the gas turbine health determination and to the identification of both the most critical measurements and parameters. Probabilistic analysis aims at unifying and improving the control and health monitoring of gas turbine aero-engines by increasing the quality and quantity of information available about the engine's health and performance.
Probabilistic safety assessment for research reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1986-12-01
Increasing interest in using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods for research reactor safety is being observed in many countries throughout the world. This is mainly because of the great ability of this approach in achieving safe and reliable operation of research reactors. There is also a need to assist developing countries to apply Probabilistic Safety Assessment to existing nuclear facilities which are simpler and therefore less complicated to analyse than a large Nuclear Power Plant. It may be important, therefore, to develop PSA for research reactors. This might also help to better understand the safety characteristics of the reactor and to base any backfitting on a cost-benefit analysis which would ensure that only necessary changes are made. This document touches on all the key aspects of PSA but placed greater emphasis on so-called systems analysis aspects rather than the in-plant or ex-plant consequences
Probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation
Reich, Sebastian
2015-01-01
In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to Bayesian filtering algorithms, from classical data assimilation algorithms such as the Kalman filter, variational techniques, and sequential Monte Carlo methods, through to more recent developments such as the ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble transform filters. The McKean approach to sequential filtering in combination with coupling of measures serves as a unifying mathematical framework throughout Part II. Assuming only some basic familiarity with probability, this book is an ideal introduction for graduate students in ap...
Reassessment of probabilistic seismic hazard in the Marmara region
Kalkan, Erol; Gulkan, Polat; Yilmaz, Nazan; Çelebi, Mehmet
2009-01-01
In 1999, the eastern coastline of the Marmara region (Turkey) witnessed increased seismic activity on the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system with two damaging earthquakes (M 7.4 Kocaeli and M 7.2 D??zce) that occurred almost three months apart. These events have reduced stress on the western segment of the NAF where it continues under the Marmara Sea. The undersea fault segments have been recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped scientists to understand the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which has remained a perplexing tectonic domain. On the basis of collected new data, seismic hazard of the Marmara region is reassessed using a probabilistic approach. Two different earthquake source models: (1) the smoothed-gridded seismicity model and (2) fault model and alternate magnitude-frequency relations, Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic, were used with local and imported ground-motion-prediction equations. Regional exposure is computed and quantified on a set of hazard maps that provide peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 sec on uniform firm-rock site condition (760 m=sec average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m). These acceleration levels were computed for ground motions having 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yr, corresponding to return periods of about 2475 and 475 yr, respectively. The maximum PGA computed (at rock site) is 1.5g along the fault segments of the NAF zone extending into the Marmara Sea. The new maps generally show 10% to 15% increase for PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 sec spectral acceleration values across much of Marmara compared to previous regional hazard maps. Hazard curves and smooth design spectra for three site conditions: rock, soil, and soft-soil are provided for the Istanbul metropolitan area as possible tools in future risk estimates.
Fast probabilistic file fingerprinting for big data.
Tretyakov, Konstantin; Laur, Sven; Smant, Geert; Vilo, Jaak; Prins, Pjotr
2013-01-01
Biological data acquisition is raising new challenges, both in data analysis and handling. Not only is it proving hard to analyze the data at the rate it is generated today, but simply reading and transferring data files can be prohibitively slow due to their size. This primarily concerns logistics within and between data centers, but is also important for workstation users in the analysis phase. Common usage patterns, such as comparing and transferring files, are proving computationally expensive and are tying down shared resources. We present an efficient method for calculating file uniqueness for large scientific data files, that takes less computational effort than existing techniques. This method, called Probabilistic Fast File Fingerprinting (PFFF), exploits the variation present in biological data and computes file fingerprints by sampling randomly from the file instead of reading it in full. Consequently, it has a flat performance characteristic, correlated with data variation rather than file size. We demonstrate that probabilistic fingerprinting can be as reliable as existing hashing techniques, with provably negligible risk of collisions. We measure the performance of the algorithm on a number of data storage and access technologies, identifying its strengths as well as limitations. Probabilistic fingerprinting may significantly reduce the use of computational resources when comparing very large files. Utilisation of probabilistic fingerprinting techniques can increase the speed of common file-related workflows, both in the data center and for workbench analysis. The implementation of the algorithm is available as an open-source tool named pfff, as a command-line tool as well as a C library. The tool can be downloaded from http://biit.cs.ut.ee/pfff.
Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling
Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno
2016-04-01
Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.
Probabilistic Bandwidth Assignment in Wireless Sensor Networks
Khan , Dawood; Nefzi , Bilel; Santinelli , Luca; Song , Ye-Qiong
2012-01-01
International audience; With this paper we offer an insight in designing and analyzing wireless sensor networks in a versatile manner. Our framework applies probabilistic and component-based design principles for the wireless sensor network modeling and consequently analysis; while maintaining flexibility and accuracy. In particular, we address the problem of allocating and reconfiguring the available bandwidth. The framework has been successfully implemented in IEEE 802.15.4 using an Admissi...
Probabilistic real-time contingency ranking method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mijuskovic, N.A.; Stojnic, D.
2000-01-01
This paper describes a real-time contingency method based on a probabilistic index-expected energy not supplied. This way it is possible to take into account the stochastic nature of the electric power system equipment outages. This approach enables more comprehensive ranking of contingencies and it is possible to form reliability cost values that can form the basis for hourly spot price calculations. The electric power system of Serbia is used as an example for the method proposed. (author)
A probabilistic approach to crack instability
Chudnovsky, A.; Kunin, B.
1989-01-01
A probabilistic model of brittle fracture is examined with reference to two-dimensional problems. The model is illustrated by using experimental data obtained for 25 macroscopically identical specimens made of short-fiber-reinforced composites. It is shown that the model proposed here provides a predictive formalism for the probability distributions of critical crack depth, critical loads, and crack arrest depths. It also provides similarity criteria for small-scale testing.
A probabilistic maintenance model for diesel engines
Pathirana, Shan; Abeygunawardane, Saranga Kumudu
2018-02-01
In this paper, a probabilistic maintenance model is developed for inspection based preventive maintenance of diesel engines based on the practical model concepts discussed in the literature. Developed model is solved using real data obtained from inspection and maintenance histories of diesel engines and experts' views. Reliability indices and costs were calculated for the present maintenance policy of diesel engines. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to observe the effect of inspection based preventive maintenance on the life cycle cost of diesel engines.
Probabilistic theism and the problem of evil
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dariusz Łukasiewicz
2017-01-01
Full Text Available I would like to present in the article an “omnipotence model of a theodicy of chance”, which is, as I believe, compatible with the view called probabilistic theism. I also would like to argue that this model satisfies the criteria of being a good theodicy. By a good theodicy I mean a reasonable and plausible theistic account of evil. A good theodicy should be: a comprehensive, b adequate, c authentic and d existentially relevant.
Probabilistic studies for safety at optimum cost
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pitner, P.
1999-01-01
By definition, the risk of failure of very reliable components is difficult to evaluate. How can the best strategies for in service inspection and maintenance be defined to limit this risk to an acceptable level at optimum cost? It is not sufficient to design structures with margins, it is also essential to understand how they age. The probabilistic approach has made it possible to develop well proven concepts. (author)
Incorporating psychological influences in probabilistic cost analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kujawski, Edouard; Alvaro, Mariana; Edwards, William
2004-01-08
Today's typical probabilistic cost analysis assumes an ''ideal'' project that is devoid of the human and organizational considerations that heavily influence the success and cost of real-world projects. In the real world ''Money Allocated Is Money Spent'' (MAIMS principle); cost underruns are rarely available to protect against cost overruns while task overruns are passed on to the total project cost. Realistic cost estimates therefore require a modified probabilistic cost analysis that simultaneously models the cost management strategy including budget allocation. Psychological influences such as overconfidence in assessing uncertainties and dependencies among cost elements and risks are other important considerations that are generally not addressed. It should then be no surprise that actual project costs often exceed the initial estimates and are delivered late and/or with a reduced scope. This paper presents a practical probabilistic cost analysis model that incorporates recent findings in human behavior and judgment under uncertainty, dependencies among cost elements, the MAIMS principle, and project management practices. Uncertain cost elements are elicited from experts using the direct fractile assessment method and fitted with three-parameter Weibull distributions. The full correlation matrix is specified in terms of two parameters that characterize correlations among cost elements in the same and in different subsystems. The analysis is readily implemented using standard Monte Carlo simulation tools such as {at}Risk and Crystal Ball{reg_sign}. The analysis of a representative design and engineering project substantiates that today's typical probabilistic cost analysis is likely to severely underestimate project cost for probability of success values of importance to contractors and procuring activities. The proposed approach provides a framework for developing a viable cost management strategy for
Characterizing the topology of probabilistic biological networks.
Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer
2013-01-01
Biological interactions are often uncertain events, that may or may not take place with some probability. This uncertainty leads to a massive number of alternative interaction topologies for each such network. The existing studies analyze the degree distribution of biological networks by assuming that all the given interactions take place under all circumstances. This strong and often incorrect assumption can lead to misleading results. In this paper, we address this problem and develop a sound mathematical basis to characterize networks in the presence of uncertain interactions. Using our mathematical representation, we develop a method that can accurately describe the degree distribution of such networks. We also take one more step and extend our method to accurately compute the joint-degree distributions of node pairs connected by edges. The number of possible network topologies grows exponentially with the number of uncertain interactions. However, the mathematical model we develop allows us to compute these degree distributions in polynomial time in the number of interactions. Our method works quickly even for entire protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks. It also helps us find an adequate mathematical model using MLE. We perform a comparative study of node-degree and joint-degree distributions in two types of biological networks: the classical deterministic networks and the more flexible probabilistic networks. Our results confirm that power-law and log-normal models best describe degree distributions for both probabilistic and deterministic networks. Moreover, the inverse correlation of degrees of neighboring nodes shows that, in probabilistic networks, nodes with large number of interactions prefer to interact with those with small number of interactions more frequently than expected. We also show that probabilistic networks are more robust for node-degree distribution computation than the deterministic ones. all the data sets used, the software
Failure probabilistic model of CNC lathes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Yiqiang; Jia Yazhou; Yu Junyi; Zheng Yuhua; Yi Shangfeng
1999-01-01
A field failure analysis of computerized numerical control (CNC) lathes is described. Field failure data was collected over a period of two years on approximately 80 CNC lathes. A coding system to code failure data was devised and a failure analysis data bank of CNC lathes was established. The failure position and subsystem, failure mode and cause were analyzed to indicate the weak subsystem of a CNC lathe. Also, failure probabilistic model of CNC lathes was analyzed by fuzzy multicriteria comprehensive evaluation
Insights gained through probabilistic risk assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hitchler, M.J.; Burns, N.L.; Liparulo, N.J.; Mink, F.J.
1987-01-01
The insights gained through a comparison of seven probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) studies (Italian PUN, Sizewell B, Ringhals 2, Millstone 3, Zion 1 and 2, Oconee 3, and Seabrook) included insights regarding the adequacy of the PRA technology utilized in the studies and the potential areas for improvement and insights regarding the adequacy of plant designs and how PRA has been utilized to enhance the design and operation of nuclear power plants
Towards probabilistic synchronisation of local controllers
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Herzallah, R.; Kárný, Miroslav
2017-01-01
Roč. 48, č. 3 (2017), s. 604-615 ISSN 0020-7721 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : cooperative control * optimal control * complex system s * stochastic system s * fully probabilistic desing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 2.285, year: 2016
Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine
2016-01-01
Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf
Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events
Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.
2009-01-01
Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.
Probabilistic safety analysis and interpretation thereof
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Steininger, U.; Sacher, H.
1999-01-01
Increasing use of the instrumentation of PSA is being made in Germany for quantitative technical safety assessment, for example with regard to incidents which must be reported and forwarding of information, especially in the case of modification of nuclear plants. The Commission for Nuclear Reactor Safety recommends regular execution of PSA on a cycle period of ten years. According to the PSA guidance instructions, probabilistic analyses serve for assessing the degree of safety of the entire plant, expressed as the expectation value for the frequency of endangering conditions. The authors describe the method, action sequence and evaluation of the probabilistic safety analyses. The limits of probabilistic safety analyses arise in the practical implementation. Normally the guidance instructions for PSA are confined to the safety systems, so that in practice they are at best suitable for operational optimisation only to a limited extent. The present restriction of the analyses has a similar effect on power output operation of the plant. This seriously degrades the utilitarian value of these analyses for the plant operators. In order to further develop PSA as a supervisory and operational optimisation instrument, both authors consider it to be appropriate to bring together the specific know-how of analysts, manufacturers, plant operators and experts. (orig.) [de
PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.
1996-01-01
A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques
Applications of probabilistic techniques at NRC
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thadani, A.; Rowsome, F.; Speis, T.
1984-01-01
The NRC is currently making extensive use of probabilistic safety assessment in the reactor regulation. Most of these applications have been introduced in the regulatory activities in the past few years. Plant Probabilistic Safety Studies are being utilized as a design tool for applications for standard designs and for assessment of plants located in regions of particularly high population density. There is considerable motivation for licenses to perform plant-specific probabilistic studies for many, if not all, of the existing operating nuclear power plants as a tool for prioritizing the implementation of the many outstanding licensing actions of these plants as well as recommending the elimination of a number of these issues which are judged to be insignificant in terms of their contribution to safety and risk. Risk assessment perspectives are being used in the priorization of generic safety issues, development of technical resolution of unresolved safety issues, assessing safety significance of proposed new regulatory requirements, assessment of safety significance of some of the occurrences at operating facilities and in environmental impact analyses of license applicants as required by the National Environmental Policy Act. (orig.)
Symbolic Computing in Probabilistic and Stochastic Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kamiński Marcin
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The main aim is to present recent developments in applications of symbolic computing in probabilistic and stochastic analysis, and this is done using the example of the well-known MAPLE system. The key theoretical methods discussed are (i analytical derivations, (ii the classical Monte-Carlo simulation approach, (iii the stochastic perturbation technique, as well as (iv some semi-analytical approaches. It is demonstrated in particular how to engage the basic symbolic tools implemented in any system to derive the basic equations for the stochastic perturbation technique and how to make an efficient implementation of the semi-analytical methods using an automatic differentiation and integration provided by the computer algebra program itself. The second important illustration is probabilistic extension of the finite element and finite difference methods coded in MAPLE, showing how to solve boundary value problems with random parameters in the environment of symbolic computing. The response function method belongs to the third group, where interference of classical deterministic software with the non-linear fitting numerical techniques available in various symbolic environments is displayed. We recover in this context the probabilistic structural response in engineering systems and show how to solve partial differential equations including Gaussian randomness in their coefficients.
Probabilistic safety analysis vs probabilistic fracture mechanics -relation and necessary merging
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nilsson, Fred
1997-01-01
A comparison is made between some general features of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in its standard form. We conclude that: Result from PSA is a numerically expressed level of confidence in the system based on the state of current knowledge. It is thus not any objective measure of risk. It is important to carefully define the precise nature of the probabilistic statement and relate it to a well defined situation. Standardisation of PFM methods is necessary. PFM seems to be the only way to obtain estimates of the pipe break probability. Service statistics are of doubtful value because of scarcity of data and statistical inhomogeneity. Collection of service data should be directed towards the occurrence of growing cracks
On probabilistic forecasting of wind power time-series
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre
power dynamics. In both cases, the model parameters are adaptively and recursively estimated, time-adaptativity being the result of exponential forgetting of past observations. The probabilistic forecasting methodology is applied at the Horns Rev wind farm in Denmark, for 10-minute ahead probabilistic...... forecasting of wind power generation. Probabilistic forecasts generated from the proposed methodology clearly have higher skill than those obtained from a classical Gaussian assumption about wind power predictive densities. Corresponding point forecasts also exhibit significantly lower error criteria....
Volume 2. Probabilistic analysis of HTGR application studies. Supporting data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1980-09-01
Volume II, Probabilistic Analysis of HTGR Application Studies - Supporting Data, gives the detail data, both deterministic and probabilistic, employed in the calculation presented in Volume I. The HTGR plants and the fossil plants considered in the study are listed. GCRA provided the technical experts from which the data were obtained by MAC personnel. The names of the technical experts (interviewee) and the analysts (interviewer) are given for the probabilistic data
Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS
Shiao, Michael C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Chamis, Christos C.
1988-01-01
Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.
Probabilistic safety assessment as a standpoint for decision making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cepin, M.
2001-01-01
This paper focuses on the role of probabilistic safety assessment in decision-making. The prerequisites for use of the results of probabilistic safety assessment and the criteria for the decision-making based on probabilistic safety assessment are discussed. The decision-making process is described. It provides a risk evaluation of impact of the issue under investigation. Selected examples are discussed, which highlight the described process. (authors)
Varjacic, Andreja; Mantini, Dante; Demeyere, Nele; Gillebert, Celine R
2018-03-27
The Trail Making Test (TMT) is an extensively used neuropsychological instrument for the assessment of set-switching ability across a wide range of neurological conditions. However, the exact nature of the cognitive processes and associated brain regions contributing to the performance on the TMT remains unclear. In this review, we first introduce the TMT by discussing its administration and scoring approaches. We then examine converging evidence and divergent findings concerning the brain regions related to TMT performance, as identified by lesion-symptom mapping studies conducted in brain-injured patients and functional magnetic resonance imaging studies conducted in healthy participants. After addressing factors that may account for the heterogeneity in the brain regions reported by these studies, we identify future research endeavours that may permit disentangling the different processes contributing to TMT performance and relating them to specific brain circuits. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
A framework for probabilistic pluvial flood nowcasting for urban areas
Ntegeka, Victor; Murla, Damian; Wang, Lipen; Foresti, Loris; Reyniers, Maarten; Delobbe, Laurent; Van Herk, Kristine; Van Ootegem, Luc; Willems, Patrick
2016-04-01
Pluvial flood nowcasting is gaining ground not least because of the advancements in rainfall forecasting schemes. Short-term forecasts and applications have benefited from the availability of such forecasts with high resolution in space (~1km) and time (~5min). In this regard, it is vital to evaluate the potential of nowcasting products for urban inundation applications. One of the most advanced Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) techniques is the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System, which was originally co-developed by the UK Met Office and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The scheme was further tuned to better estimate extreme and moderate events for the Belgian area (STEPS-BE). Against this backdrop, a probabilistic framework has been developed that consists of: (1) rainfall nowcasts; (2) sewer hydraulic model; (3) flood damage estimation; and (4) urban inundation risk mapping. STEPS-BE forecasts are provided at high resolution (1km/5min) with 20 ensemble members with a lead time of up to 2 hours using a 4 C-band radar composite as input. Forecasts' verification was performed over the cities of Leuven and Ghent and biases were found to be small. The hydraulic model consists of the 1D sewer network and an innovative 'nested' 2D surface model to model 2D urban surface inundations at high resolution. The surface components are categorized into three groups and each group is modelled using triangular meshes at different resolutions; these include streets (3.75 - 15 m2), high flood hazard areas (12.5 - 50 m2) and low flood hazard areas (75 - 300 m2). Functions describing urban flood damage and social consequences were empirically derived based on questionnaires to people in the region that were recently affected by sewer floods. Probabilistic urban flood risk maps were prepared based on spatial interpolation techniques of flood inundation. The method has been implemented and tested for the villages Oostakker and Sint-Amandsberg, which are part of the
Probabilistic logic networks a comprehensive framework for uncertain inference
Goertzel, Ben; Goertzel, Izabela Freire; Heljakka, Ari
2008-01-01
This comprehensive book describes Probabilistic Logic Networks (PLN), a novel conceptual, mathematical and computational approach to uncertain inference. A broad scope of reasoning types are considered.
Lesion mapping of social problem solving.
Barbey, Aron K; Colom, Roberto; Paul, Erick J; Chau, Aileen; Solomon, Jeffrey; Grafman, Jordan H
2014-10-01
Accumulating neuroscience evidence indicates that human intelligence is supported by a distributed network of frontal and parietal regions that enable complex, goal-directed behaviour. However, the contributions of this network to social aspects of intellectual function remain to be well characterized. Here, we report a human lesion study (n = 144) that investigates the neural bases of social problem solving (measured by the Everyday Problem Solving Inventory) and examine the degree to which individual differences in performance are predicted by a broad spectrum of psychological variables, including psychometric intelligence (measured by the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale), emotional intelligence (measured by the Mayer, Salovey, Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test), and personality traits (measured by the Neuroticism-Extraversion-Openness Personality Inventory). Scores for each variable were obtained, followed by voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping. Stepwise regression analyses revealed that working memory, processing speed, and emotional intelligence predict individual differences in everyday problem solving. A targeted analysis of specific everyday problem solving domains (involving friends, home management, consumerism, work, information management, and family) revealed psychological variables that selectively contribute to each. Lesion mapping results indicated that social problem solving, psychometric intelligence, and emotional intelligence are supported by a shared network of frontal, temporal, and parietal regions, including white matter association tracts that bind these areas into a coordinated system. The results support an integrative framework for understanding social intelligence and make specific recommendations for the application of the Everyday Problem Solving Inventory to the study of social problem solving in health and disease. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources
Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.
2009-01-01
The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
A reconnaissance assessment of probabilistic earthquake accelerations at the Nevada Test Site
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perkins, D.M.; Thenhaus, P.C.; Hanson, S.L.; Algermissen, S.T.
1986-01-01
We have made two interim assessments of the probabilistic ground-motion hazard for the potential nuclear-waste disposal facility at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The first assessment used historical seismicity and generalized source zones and source faults in the immediate vicinity of the facility. This model produced relatively high probabilistic ground motions, comparable to the higher of two earlier estimates, which was obtained by averaging seismicity in a 400-km-radius circle around the site. The high ground-motion values appear to be caused in part by nuclear-explosion aftershocks remaining in the catalog even after the explosions themselves have been removed. The second assessment used particularized source zones and source faults in a region substantially larger than NTS to provide a broad context of probabilistic ground motion estimates at other locations of the study region. Source faults are mapped or inferred faults having lengths of 5 km or more. Source zones are defined by boundaries separating fault groups on the basis of direction and density. For this assessment, earthquake recurrence has been estimated primarily from historic seismicity prior to nuclear testing. Long-term recurrence for large-magnitude events is constrained by geological estimates of recurrence in a regime in which the large-magnitude earthquakes would occur with predominately normal mechanisms. 4 refs., 10 figs
Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis
Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.
2016-04-01
Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition
A probabilistic design method for LMFBR fuel rods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peck, S.O.; Lovejoy, W.S.
1977-01-01
Fuel rod performance analyses for design purposes are dependent upon material properties, dimensions, and loads that are statistical in nature. Conventional design practice accounts for the uncertainties in relevant parameters by designing to a 'safety factor', set so as to assure safe operation. Arbitrary assignment of these safety factors, based upon a number of 'worst case' assumptions, may result in costly over-design. Probabilistic design methods provide a systematic way to reflect the uncertainties in design parameters. PECS-III is a computer code which employs Monte Carlo techniques to generate the probability density and distribution functions for time-to-failure and cumulative damage for sealed plenum LMFBR fuel rods on a single rod or whole core basis. In Monte Carlo analyses, a deterministic model (that maps single-valued inputs into single-valued outputs) is coupled to a statistical 'driver'. Uncertainties in the input are reflected by assigning probability densities to the input parameters. Dependent input variables are considered multivariate normal. Independent input variables may be arbitrarily distributed. Sample values are drawn from these input densities, and a complete analysis is done by the deterministic model to generate a sample point in the output distribution. This process is repeated many times, and the number of times each output value occurs is accumulated. The probability that some measure of rod performance will fall within given limits is estimated by the relative frequency with which the Monte Carlo samples fall within tho
Bucci, Monica; Mandelli, Maria Luisa; Berman, Jeffrey I; Amirbekian, Bagrat; Nguyen, Christopher; Berger, Mitchel S; Henry, Roland G
2013-01-01
Diffusion MRI tractography has been increasingly used to delineate white matter pathways in vivo for which the leading clinical application is presurgical mapping of eloquent regions. However, there is rare opportunity to quantify the accuracy or sensitivity of these approaches to delineate white matter fiber pathways in vivo due to the lack of a gold standard. Intraoperative electrical stimulation (IES) provides a gold standard for the location and existence of functional motor pathways that can be used to determine the accuracy and sensitivity of fiber tracking algorithms. In this study we used intraoperative stimulation from brain tumor patients as a gold standard to estimate the sensitivity and accuracy of diffusion tensor MRI (DTI) and q-ball models of diffusion with deterministic and probabilistic fiber tracking algorithms for delineation of motor pathways. We used preoperative high angular resolution diffusion MRI (HARDI) data (55 directions, b = 2000 s/mm(2)) acquired in a clinically feasible time frame from 12 patients who underwent a craniotomy for resection of a cerebral glioma. The corticospinal fiber tracts were delineated with DTI and q-ball models using deterministic and probabilistic algorithms. We used cortical and white matter IES sites as a gold standard for the presence and location of functional motor pathways. Sensitivity was defined as the true positive rate of delineating fiber pathways based on cortical IES stimulation sites. For accuracy and precision of the course of the fiber tracts, we measured the distance between the subcortical stimulation sites and the tractography result. Positive predictive rate of the delineated tracts was assessed by comparison of subcortical IES motor function (upper extremity, lower extremity, face) with the connection of the tractography pathway in the motor cortex. We obtained 21 cortical and 8 subcortical IES sites from intraoperative mapping of motor pathways. Probabilistic q-ball had the best
A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia
Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.
2014-11-01
Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.
Bounding probabilistic safety assessment probabilities by reality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fragola, J.R.; Shooman, M.L.
1991-01-01
The investigation of the failure in systems where failure is a rare event makes the continual comparisons between the developed probabilities and empirical evidence difficult. The comparison of the predictions of rare event risk assessments with historical reality is essential to prevent probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) predictions from drifting into fantasy. One approach to performing such comparisons is to search out and assign probabilities to natural events which, while extremely rare, have a basis in the history of natural phenomena or human activities. For example the Segovian aqueduct and some of the Roman fortresses in Spain have existed for several millennia and in many cases show no physical signs of earthquake damage. This evidence could be used to bound the probability of earthquakes above a certain magnitude to less than 10 -3 per year. On the other hand, there is evidence that some repetitive actions can be performed with extremely low historical probabilities when operators are properly trained and motivated, and sufficient warning indicators are provided. The point is not that low probability estimates are impossible, but continual reassessment of the analysis assumptions, and a bounding of the analysis predictions by historical reality. This paper reviews the probabilistic predictions of PSA in this light, attempts to develop, in a general way, the limits which can be historically established and the consequent bounds that these limits place upon the predictions, and illustrates the methodology used in computing such limits. Further, the paper discusses the use of empirical evidence and the requirement for disciplined systematic approaches within the bounds of reality and the associated impact on PSA probabilistic estimates
Probabilistic design of fibre concrete structures
Pukl, R.; Novák, D.; Sajdlová, T.; Lehký, D.; Červenka, J.; Červenka, V.
2017-09-01
Advanced computer simulation is recently well-established methodology for evaluation of resistance of concrete engineering structures. The nonlinear finite element analysis enables to realistically predict structural damage, peak load, failure, post-peak response, development of cracks in concrete, yielding of reinforcement, concrete crushing or shear failure. The nonlinear material models can cover various types of concrete and reinforced concrete: ordinary concrete, plain or reinforced, without or with prestressing, fibre concrete, (ultra) high performance concrete, lightweight concrete, etc. Advanced material models taking into account fibre concrete properties such as shape of tensile softening branch, high toughness and ductility are described in the paper. Since the variability of the fibre concrete material properties is rather high, the probabilistic analysis seems to be the most appropriate format for structural design and evaluation of structural performance, reliability and safety. The presented combination of the nonlinear analysis with advanced probabilistic methods allows evaluation of structural safety characterized by failure probability or by reliability index respectively. Authors offer a methodology and computer tools for realistic safety assessment of concrete structures; the utilized approach is based on randomization of the nonlinear finite element analysis of the structural model. Uncertainty of the material properties or their randomness obtained from material tests are accounted in the random distribution. Furthermore, degradation of the reinforced concrete materials such as carbonation of concrete, corrosion of reinforcement, etc. can be accounted in order to analyze life-cycle structural performance and to enable prediction of the structural reliability and safety in time development. The results can serve as a rational basis for design of fibre concrete engineering structures based on advanced nonlinear computer analysis. The presented
Phreatic eruptions at Ruapehu: Occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast
Strehlow, Karen; Sandri, Laura; Gottsmann, Jo; Kilgour, Geoff; Rust, Alison; Tonini, Roberto
2017-04-01
Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to human life in crater proximity, are often underestimated or neglected, and have been comparatively understudied with respect to magmatic events. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (North Island of New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at an active crater lake volcano. We first carried out a completeness analysis of this catalog; then, we performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Rather, they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. The average probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, as inferred from the complete part of the catalog studied. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes. The combination of numerical simulations of ejected clasts' trajectory with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) has allowed performing a full probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lake shore, where there is a mountain refuge. Epistemic uncertainty associated to the resulting hazard maps is also quantified. Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions.
The LaSalle probabilistic safety analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frederick, L.G.; Massin, H.L.; Crane, G.R.
1987-01-01
A probabilistic safety analysis has been performed for LaSalle County Station, a twin-unit General Electric BWR5 Mark II nuclear power plant. A primary objective of this PSA is to provide engineers with a useful and useable tool for making design decisions, performing technical specification optimization, evaluating proposed regulatory changes to equipment and procedures, and as an aid in operator training. Other objectives are to identify the hypothetical accident sequences that would contribute to core damage frequency, and to provide assurance that the total expected frequency of core-damaging accidents is below 10 -4 per reactor-year in response to suggested goals. (orig./HSCH)
Probabilistic double guarantee kidnapping detection in SLAM.
Tian, Yang; Ma, Shugen
2016-01-01
For determining whether kidnapping has happened and which type of kidnapping it is while a robot performs autonomous tasks in an unknown environment, a double guarantee kidnapping detection (DGKD) method has been proposed. The good performance of DGKD in a relative small environment is shown. However, a limitation of DGKD is found in a large-scale environment by our recent work. In order to increase the adaptability of DGKD in a large-scale environment, an improved method called probabilistic double guarantee kidnapping detection is proposed in this paper to combine probability of features' positions and the robot's posture. Simulation results demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the proposed method.
Deterministic and probabilistic approach to safety analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heuser, F.W.
1980-01-01
The examples discussed in this paper show that reliability analysis methods fairly well can be applied in order to interpret deterministic safety criteria in quantitative terms. For further improved extension of applied reliability analysis it has turned out that the influence of operational and control systems and of component protection devices should be considered with the aid of reliability analysis methods in detail. Of course, an extension of probabilistic analysis must be accompanied by further development of the methods and a broadening of the data base. (orig.)
Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pulkkinen, U.
1989-01-01
Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.
Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip
2015-12-01
Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.
Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.
1984-01-01
A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)
Probabilistic Forecasting of the Wave Energy Flux
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre; Reikard, G.; Bidlot, J.-R.
2012-01-01
Wave energy will certainly have a significant role to play in the deployment of renewable energy generation capacities. As with wind and solar, probabilistic forecasts of wave power over horizons of a few hours to a few days are required for power system operation as well as trading in electricit......% and 70% in terms of Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS), depending upon the test case and the lead time. It is finally shown that the log-Normal assumption can be seen as acceptable, even though it may be refined in the future....
Probabilistic Analysis of the Quality Calculus
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming
2013-01-01
We consider a fragment of the Quality Calculus, previously introduced for defensive programming of software components such that it becomes natural to plan for default behaviour in case the ideal behaviour fails due to unreliable communication. This paper develops a probabilistically based trust...... analysis supporting the Quality Calculus. It uses information about the probabilities that expected input will be absent in order to determine the trustworthiness of the data used for controlling the distributed system; the main challenge is to take accord of the stochastic dependency between some...
Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perkins, W.C.
1984-01-01
The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures
Optimisation of technical specifications using probabilistic methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ericsson, G.; Knochenhauer, M.; Hultqvist, G.
1986-01-01
During the last few years the development of methods for modifying and optimising nuclear power plant Technical Specifications (TS) for plant operations has received increased attention. Probalistic methods in general, and the plant and system models of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in particular, seem to provide the most forceful tools for optimisation. This paper first gives some general comments on optimisation, identifying important parameters and then gives a description of recent Swedish experiences from the use of nuclear power plant PSA models and results for TS optimisation
Probabilistic model for sterilization of food
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chepurko, V.V.; Malinovskij, O.V.
1986-01-01
The probabilistic model for radiation sterilization is proposed based on the followng suppositions: (1) initial contamination of a volume unit of the sterilized product m is described by the distribution of the probabilities q(m), (2) inactivation of the population from m of microorganisms is approximated by Bernoulli test scheme, and (3) contamination of unit of the sterilized product is independent. The possibility of approximation q(m) by Poisson distribution is demonstrated. The diagrams are presented permitting to evaluate the dose which provides the defined reliability of sterilization of food for chicken-gnotobionts
Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmalz, F.
1991-01-01
In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs
Probabilistic and Statistical Aspects of Quantum Theory
Holevo, Alexander S
2011-01-01
This book is devoted to aspects of the foundations of quantum mechanics in which probabilistic and statistical concepts play an essential role. The main part of the book concerns the quantitative statistical theory of quantum measurement, based on the notion of positive operator-valued measures. During the past years there has been substantial progress in this direction, stimulated to a great extent by new applications such as Quantum Optics, Quantum Communication and high-precision experiments. The questions of statistical interpretation, quantum symmetries, theory of canonical commutation re
Quantitative analysis of probabilistic BPMN workflows
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin
2012-01-01
We present a framework for modelling and analysis of realworld business workflows. We present a formalised core subset of the Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) and then proceed to extend this language with probabilistic nondeterministic branching and general-purpose reward annotations...... of events, reward-based properties and best- and worst- case scenarios. We develop a simple example of medical workflow and demonstrate the utility of this analysis in accurate provisioning of drug stocks. Finally, we suggest a path to building upon these techniques to cover the entire BPMN language, allow...
Quantum correlations support probabilistic pure state cloning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Roa, Luis, E-mail: lroa@udec.cl [Departamento de Física, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepción (Chile); Alid-Vaccarezza, M.; Jara-Figueroa, C. [Departamento de Física, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepción (Chile); Klimov, A.B. [Departamento de Física, Universidad de Guadalajara, Avenida Revolución 1500, 44420 Guadalajara, Jalisco (Mexico)
2014-02-01
The probabilistic scheme for making two copies of two nonorthogonal pure states requires two auxiliary systems, one for copying and one for attempting to project onto the suitable subspace. The process is performed by means of a unitary-reduction scheme which allows having a success probability of cloning different from zero. The scheme becomes optimal when the probability of success is maximized. In this case, a bipartite state remains as a free degree which does not affect the probability. We find bipartite states for which the unitarity does not introduce entanglement, but does introduce quantum discord between some involved subsystems.
Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.
1998-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics
Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.
1989-01-01
Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)
Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.
1986-01-01
The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt
Probabilistic analysis of fires in nuclear plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Unione, A.; Teichmann, T.
1985-01-01
The aim of this paper is to describe a multilevel (i.e., staged) probabilistic analysis of fire risks in nuclear plants (as part of a general PRA) which maximizes the benefits of the FRA (fire risk assessment) in a cost effective way. The approach uses several stages of screening, physical modeling of clearly dominant risk contributors, searches for direct (e.g., equipment dependences) and secondary (e.g., fire induced internal flooding) interactions, and relies on lessons learned and available data from and surrogate FRAs. The general methodology is outlined. 6 figs., 10 tabs
Peeters, L. J.; Mallants, D.; Turnadge, C.
2017-12-01
Groundwater impact assessments are increasingly being undertaken in a probabilistic framework whereby various sources of uncertainty (model parameters, model structure, boundary conditions, and calibration data) are taken into account. This has resulted in groundwater impact metrics being presented as probability density functions and/or cumulative distribution functions, spatial maps displaying isolines of percentile values for specific metrics, etc. Groundwater management on the other hand typically uses single values (i.e., in a deterministic framework) to evaluate what decisions are required to protect groundwater resources. For instance, in New South Wales, Australia, a nominal drawdown value of two metres is specified by the NSW Aquifer Interference Policy as trigger-level threshold. In many cases, when drawdowns induced by groundwater extraction exceed two metres, "make-good" provisions are enacted (such as the surrendering of extraction licenses). The information obtained from a quantitative uncertainty analysis can be used to guide decision making in several ways. Two examples are discussed here: the first of which would not require modification of existing "deterministic" trigger or guideline values, whereas the second example assumes that the regulatory criteria are also expressed in probabilistic terms. The first example is a straightforward interpretation of calculated percentile values for specific impact metrics. The second examples goes a step further, as the previous deterministic thresholds do not currently allow for a probabilistic interpretation; e.g., there is no statement that "the probability of exceeding the threshold shall not be larger than 50%". It would indeed be sensible to have a set of thresholds with an associated acceptable probability of exceedance (or probability of not exceeding a threshold) that decreases as the impact increases. We here illustrate how both the prediction uncertainty and management rules can be expressed in a
A linear process-algebraic format for probabilistic systems with data (extended version)
Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Timmer, Mark
2010-01-01
This paper presents a novel linear process-algebraic format for probabilistic automata. The key ingredient is a symbolic transformation of probabilistic process algebra terms that incorporate data into this linear format while preserving strong probabilistic bisimulation. This generalises similar
A linear process-algebraic format for probabilistic systems with data
Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Timmer, Mark; Gomes, L.; Khomenko, V.; Fernandes, J.M.
This paper presents a novel linear process algebraic format for probabilistic automata. The key ingredient is a symbolic transformation of probabilistic process algebra terms that incorporate data into this linear format while preserving strong probabilistic bisimulation. This generalises similar
Distributed neural system for emotional intelligence revealed by lesion mapping.
Barbey, Aron K; Colom, Roberto; Grafman, Jordan
2014-03-01
Cognitive neuroscience has made considerable progress in understanding the neural architecture of human intelligence, identifying a broadly distributed network of frontal and parietal regions that support goal-directed, intelligent behavior. However, the contributions of this network to social and emotional aspects of intellectual function remain to be well characterized. Here we investigated the neural basis of emotional intelligence in 152 patients with focal brain injuries using voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping. Latent variable modeling was applied to obtain measures of emotional intelligence, general intelligence and personality from the Mayer, Salovey, Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT), the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale and the Neuroticism-Extroversion-Openness Inventory, respectively. Regression analyses revealed that latent scores for measures of general intelligence and personality reliably predicted latent scores for emotional intelligence. Lesion mapping results further indicated that these convergent processes depend on a shared network of frontal, temporal and parietal brain regions. The results support an integrative framework for understanding the architecture of executive, social and emotional processes and make specific recommendations for the interpretation and application of the MSCEIT to the study of emotional intelligence in health and disease.
Distributed neural system for emotional intelligence revealed by lesion mapping
Colom, Roberto; Grafman, Jordan
2014-01-01
Cognitive neuroscience has made considerable progress in understanding the neural architecture of human intelligence, identifying a broadly distributed network of frontal and parietal regions that support goal-directed, intelligent behavior. However, the contributions of this network to social and emotional aspects of intellectual function remain to be well characterized. Here we investigated the neural basis of emotional intelligence in 152 patients with focal brain injuries using voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping. Latent variable modeling was applied to obtain measures of emotional intelligence, general intelligence and personality from the Mayer, Salovey, Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT), the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale and the Neuroticism-Extroversion-Openness Inventory, respectively. Regression analyses revealed that latent scores for measures of general intelligence and personality reliably predicted latent scores for emotional intelligence. Lesion mapping results further indicated that these convergent processes depend on a shared network of frontal, temporal and parietal brain regions. The results support an integrative framework for understanding the architecture of executive, social and emotional processes and make specific recommendations for the interpretation and application of the MSCEIT to the study of emotional intelligence in health and disease. PMID:23171618
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Menze, Bjoern H.; Van Leemput, Koen; Lashkari, Danial
2016-01-01
jointly from the image data. It delineates lesion areas individually in each channel, allowing for differences in lesion appearance across modalities, an important feature of many brain tumor imaging sequences. We also propose discriminative model extensions to map the output of the generative model......), to estimate the label map for a new image. Our model augments the probabilistic atlas of the healthy tissues with a latent atlas of the lesion. We derive an estimation algorithm with closed-form EM update equations. The method extracts a latent atlas prior distribution and the lesion posterior distributions...
Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module
Mason, Brian H.; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan
2011-01-01
An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.
Blind RRT: A probabilistically complete distributed RRT
Rodriguez, Cesar; Denny, Jory; Jacobs, Sam Ade; Thomas, Shawna; Amato, Nancy M.
2013-01-01
Rapidly-Exploring Random Trees (RRTs) have been successful at finding feasible solutions for many types of problems. With motion planning becoming more computationally demanding, we turn to parallel motion planning for efficient solutions. Existing work on distributed RRTs has been limited by the overhead that global communication requires. A recent approach, Radial RRT, demonstrated a scalable algorithm that subdivides the space into regions to increase the computation locality. However, if an obstacle completely blocks RRT growth in a region, the planning space is not covered and is thus not probabilistically complete. We present a new algorithm, Blind RRT, which ignores obstacles during initial growth to efficiently explore the entire space. Because obstacles are ignored, free components of the tree become disconnected and fragmented. Blind RRT merges parts of the tree that have become disconnected from the root. We show how this algorithm can be applied to the Radial RRT framework allowing both scalability and effectiveness in motion planning. This method is a probabilistically complete approach to parallel RRTs. We show that our method not only scales but also overcomes the motion planning limitations that Radial RRT has in a series of difficult motion planning tasks. © 2013 IEEE.
A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Derby, S.L.
1983-01-01
The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions
Patterns of probabilistic evaluation of the maintenance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Torres V, A.; Rivero O, J.J.
2004-01-01
The Boolean equation represented by the minimum sets of court at level of a system or of all one Probabilistic safety analysis (APS) it has been used for to evaluate the output configurations of service of teams during the exploitation. It has been carried out through applications of APS for the optimization of operational regimes. The obtaining of such boolean equations as demands of a process of high mathematical complexity for what exhaustive studies are required, even for the application of their results. The important advantages for the maintenance that they obtain of these applications they require the development of methodologies that bring near these optimization methods to the systems of management of the maintenance, and not facilitate their use for a personnel specialized in the probabilistic topics. The article presents a methodology for the preparation, solution and utilization of the results of the fault tree leaving of technological outlines. This algorithm has been automated through the MOSEG code Win to Ver 1.0 (Author)
Blind RRT: A probabilistically complete distributed RRT
Rodriguez, Cesar
2013-11-01
Rapidly-Exploring Random Trees (RRTs) have been successful at finding feasible solutions for many types of problems. With motion planning becoming more computationally demanding, we turn to parallel motion planning for efficient solutions. Existing work on distributed RRTs has been limited by the overhead that global communication requires. A recent approach, Radial RRT, demonstrated a scalable algorithm that subdivides the space into regions to increase the computation locality. However, if an obstacle completely blocks RRT growth in a region, the planning space is not covered and is thus not probabilistically complete. We present a new algorithm, Blind RRT, which ignores obstacles during initial growth to efficiently explore the entire space. Because obstacles are ignored, free components of the tree become disconnected and fragmented. Blind RRT merges parts of the tree that have become disconnected from the root. We show how this algorithm can be applied to the Radial RRT framework allowing both scalability and effectiveness in motion planning. This method is a probabilistically complete approach to parallel RRTs. We show that our method not only scales but also overcomes the motion planning limitations that Radial RRT has in a series of difficult motion planning tasks. © 2013 IEEE.
Variational approach to probabilistic finite elements
Belytschko, T.; Liu, W. K.; Mani, A.; Besterfield, G.
1991-08-01
Probabilistic finite element methods (PFEM), synthesizing the power of finite element methods with second-moment techniques, are formulated for various classes of problems in structural and solid mechanics. Time-invariant random materials, geometric properties and loads are incorporated in terms of their fundamental statistics viz. second-moments. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random fields are also discretized. Preserving the conceptual simplicity, the response moments are calculated with minimal computations. By incorporating certain computational techniques, these methods are shown to be capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. By construction, these methods are applicable when the scale of randomness is not very large and when the probabilistic density functions have decaying tails. The accuracy and efficiency of these methods, along with their limitations, are demonstrated by various applications. Results obtained are compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and it is shown that good accuracy can be obtained for both linear and nonlinear problems. The methods are amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer codes.
Probabilistic Space Weather Forecasting: a Bayesian Perspective
Camporeale, E.; Chandorkar, M.; Borovsky, J.; Care', A.
2017-12-01
Most of the Space Weather forecasts, both at operational and research level, are not probabilistic in nature. Unfortunately, a prediction that does not provide a confidence level is not very useful in a decision-making scenario. Nowadays, forecast models range from purely data-driven, machine learning algorithms, to physics-based approximation of first-principle equations (and everything that sits in between). Uncertainties pervade all such models, at every level: from the raw data to finite-precision implementation of numerical methods. The most rigorous way of quantifying the propagation of uncertainties is by embracing a Bayesian probabilistic approach. One of the simplest and most robust machine learning technique in the Bayesian framework is Gaussian Process regression and classification. Here, we present the application of Gaussian Processes to the problems of the DST geomagnetic index forecast, the solar wind type classification, and the estimation of diffusion parameters in radiation belt modeling. In each of these very diverse problems, the GP approach rigorously provide forecasts in the form of predictive distributions. In turn, these distributions can be used as input for ensemble simulations in order to quantify the amplification of uncertainties. We show that we have achieved excellent results in all of the standard metrics to evaluate our models, with very modest computational cost.
Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis for Metabolomic Data.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Nyamundanda, Gift
2010-11-23
Abstract Background Data from metabolomic studies are typically complex and high-dimensional. Principal component analysis (PCA) is currently the most widely used statistical technique for analyzing metabolomic data. However, PCA is limited by the fact that it is not based on a statistical model. Results Here, probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) which addresses some of the limitations of PCA, is reviewed and extended. A novel extension of PPCA, called probabilistic principal component and covariates analysis (PPCCA), is introduced which provides a flexible approach to jointly model metabolomic data and additional covariate information. The use of a mixture of PPCA models for discovering the number of inherent groups in metabolomic data is demonstrated. The jackknife technique is employed to construct confidence intervals for estimated model parameters throughout. The optimal number of principal components is determined through the use of the Bayesian Information Criterion model selection tool, which is modified to address the high dimensionality of the data. Conclusions The methods presented are illustrated through an application to metabolomic data sets. Jointly modeling metabolomic data and covariates was successfully achieved and has the potential to provide deeper insight to the underlying data structure. Examination of confidence intervals for the model parameters, such as loadings, allows for principled and clear interpretation of the underlying data structure. A software package called MetabolAnalyze, freely available through the R statistical software, has been developed to facilitate implementation of the presented methods in the metabolomics field.
Probabilistic safety assessment activities at Ignalina NPP
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bagdonas, A.
1999-01-01
The Barselina Project was initiated in the summer 1991. The project was a multilateral co-operation between Lithuania, Russia and Sweden up until phase 3, and phase 4 has been performed as a bilateral between Lithuania and Sweden. The long-range objective is to establish common perspectives and unified bases for assessment of severe accident risks and needs for remedial measures for the RBMK reactors. During phase 3, from 1993 to 1994, a full scope Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) model of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant unit 2 was developed to identify possible safety improvement of risk importance. The probabilistic methodology was applied on a plant specific basis for a channel type reactor of RBMK design. During phase 4, from 1994 to 1996, the PSA was further developed, taking into account plant changes, improved modelling methods and extended plant information concerning dependencies (area events, dynamic effects, electrical and signal dependencies). The model reflected the plant status before the outage 1996. During phase 4+, 1998 to 1999 the PSA model was upgraded taking into account the newest plant modifications. The new PSA model of CPS/AZRT was developed. Modelling was based on the Single Failure Analysis
Extending CANTUP code analysis to probabilistic evaluations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Florea, S.
2001-01-01
The structural analysis with numerical methods based on final element method plays at present a central role in evaluations and predictions of structural systems which require safety and reliable operation in aggressive environmental conditions. This is the case too for the CANDU - 600 fuel channel, where besides the corrosive and thermal aggression upon the Zr97.5Nb2.5 pressure tubes, a lasting irradiation adds which has marked consequences upon the materials properties evolution. This results in an unavoidable spreading in the materials properties in time, affected by high uncertainties. Consequently, the deterministic evaluation with computation codes based on finite element method are supplemented by statistic and probabilistic methods of evaluation of the response of structural components. This paper reports the works on extending the thermo-mechanical evaluation of the fuel channel components in the frame of probabilistic structure mechanics based on statistical methods and developed upon deterministic CANTUP code analyses. CANTUP code was adapted from LAHEY 77 platform onto Microsoft Developer Studio - Fortran Power Station 4.0 platform. To test the statistical evaluation of the creeping behaviour of pressure tube, the value of longitudinal elasticity modulus (Young) was used, as random variable, with a normal distribution around value, as used in deterministic analyses. The influence of the random quantity upon the hog and effective stress developed in the pressure tube for to time values, specific to primary and secondary creep was studied. The results obtained after a five year creep, corresponding to the secondary creep are presented
A probabilistic bridge safety evaluation against floods.
Liao, Kuo-Wei; Muto, Yasunori; Chen, Wei-Lun; Wu, Bang-Ho
2016-01-01
To further capture the influences of uncertain factors on river bridge safety evaluation, a probabilistic approach is adopted. Because this is a systematic and nonlinear problem, MPP-based reliability analyses are not suitable. A sampling approach such as a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) or importance sampling is often adopted. To enhance the efficiency of the sampling approach, this study utilizes Bayesian least squares support vector machines to construct a response surface followed by an MCS, providing a more precise safety index. Although there are several factors impacting the flood-resistant reliability of a bridge, previous experiences and studies show that the reliability of the bridge itself plays a key role. Thus, the goal of this study is to analyze the system reliability of a selected bridge that includes five limit states. The random variables considered here include the water surface elevation, water velocity, local scour depth, soil property and wind load. Because the first three variables are deeply affected by river hydraulics, a probabilistic HEC-RAS-based simulation is performed to capture the uncertainties in those random variables. The accuracy and variation of our solutions are confirmed by a direct MCS to ensure the applicability of the proposed approach. The results of a numerical example indicate that the proposed approach can efficiently provide an accurate bridge safety evaluation and maintain satisfactory variation.
Characterizing Topology of Probabilistic Biological Networks.
Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer
2013-09-06
Biological interactions are often uncertain events, that may or may not take place with some probability. Existing studies analyze the degree distribution of biological networks by assuming that all the given interactions take place under all circumstances. This strong and often incorrect assumption can lead to misleading results. Here, we address this problem and develop a sound mathematical basis to characterize networks in the presence of uncertain interactions. We develop a method that accurately describes the degree distribution of such networks. We also extend our method to accurately compute the joint degree distributions of node pairs connected by edges. The number of possible network topologies grows exponentially with the number of uncertain interactions. However, the mathematical model we develop allows us to compute these degree distributions in polynomial time in the number of interactions. It also helps us find an adequate mathematical model using maximum likelihood estimation. Our results demonstrate that power law and log-normal models best describe degree distributions for probabilistic networks. The inverse correlation of degrees of neighboring nodes shows that, in probabilistic networks, nodes with large number of interactions prefer to interact with those with small number of interactions more frequently than expected.
Computer aided probabilistic assessment of containment integrity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tsai, J.C.; Touchton, R.A.
1984-01-01
In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant, there are three probability-based techniques which are widely used for event sequence frequency quantification (including nodal probability estimation). These three techniques are the event tree analysis, the fault tree analysis and the Bayesian approach for database development. In the barrier analysis for assessing radionuclide release to the environment in a PRA study, these techniques are employed to a greater extent in estimating conditions which could lead to failure of the fuel cladding and the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary, but to a lesser degree in the containment pressure boundary failure analysis. The main reason is that containment issues are currently still in a state of flux. In this paper, the authors describe briefly the computer programs currently used by the nuclear industry to do event tree analyses, fault tree analyses and the Bayesian update. The authors discuss how these computer aided probabilistic techniques might be adopted for failure analysis of the containment pressure boundary
Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.
1984-01-01
Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each
Probabilistic simulation applications to reliability assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, Ian; Nutt, Mark W.; Hill, Ralph S. III
2003-01-01
Probabilistic risk/reliability (PRA) analyses for engineered systems are conventionally based on fault-tree methods. These methods are mature and efficient, and are well suited to systems consisting of interacting components with known, low probabilities of failure. Even complex systems, such as nuclear power plants or aircraft, are modeled by the careful application of these approaches. However, for systems that may evolve in complex and nonlinear ways, and where the performance of components may be a sensitive function of the history of their working environments, fault-tree methods can be very demanding. This paper proposes an alternative method of evaluating such systems, based on probabilistic simulation using intelligent software objects to represent the components of such systems. Using a Monte Carlo approach, simulation models can be constructed from relatively simple interacting objects that capture the essential behavior of the components that they represent. Such models are capable of reflecting the complex behaviors of the systems that they represent in a natural and realistic way. (author)
Recent advances in probabilistic species pool delineations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dirk Nikolaus Karger
2016-07-01
Full Text Available A species pool is the set of species that could potentially colonize and establish within a community. It has been a commonly used concept in biogeography since the early days of MacArthur and Wilson’s work on Island Biogeography. Despite their simple and appealing definition, an operational application of species pools is bundled with a multitude of problems, which have often resulted in arbitrary decisions and workarounds when defining species pools. Two recently published papers address the operational problems of species pool delineations, and show ways of delineating them in a probabilistic fashion. In both papers, species pools were delineated using a process-based, mechanistical approach, which opens the door for a multitude of new applications in biogeography. Such applications include detecting the hidden signature of biotic interactions, disentangling the geographical structure of community assembly processes, and incorporating a temporal extent into species pools. Although similar in their conclusions, both ‘probabilistic approaches’ differ in their implementation and definitions. Here I give a brief overview of the differences and similarities of both approaches, and identify the challenges and advantages in their application.
Probabilistic Criterion for the Economical Assessment of Nuclear Reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Juanico, L; Florido, Pablo; Bergallo, Juan
2000-01-01
In this paper a MonteCarlo probabilistic model for the economic evaluation of nuclear power plants is presented.The probabilistic results have shown a wide spread on the economic performance due to the schedule complexity and coupling if tasks.This spread increasing to the discount rate, end hence, it becomes more important for developing countries
The Role of Language in Building Probabilistic Thinking
Nacarato, Adair Mendes; Grando, Regina Célia
2014-01-01
This paper is based on research that investigated the development of probabilistic language and thinking by students 10-12 years old. The focus was on the adequate use of probabilistic terms in social practice. A series of tasks was developed for the investigation and completed by the students working in groups. The discussions were video recorded…
Evaluation of Probabilistic Reasoning Evidence from Seventh-Graders
Erdem, Emrullah; Gürbüz, Ramazan
2016-01-01
The purpose of this study was to evaluate probabilistic reasoning of seventh-grade students (N=167) studying at randomly selected three middle schools that served low and middle socioeconomic areas in a city of Turkey. "Probabilistic Reasoning Test (PRT)" was developed and used as a data collection tool. In analyzing the data,…
A Probabilistic Framework for Security Scenarios with Dependent Actions
Kordy, Barbara; Pouly, Marc; Schweizer, Patrick; Albert, Elvira; Sekereinsk, Emil
2014-01-01
This work addresses the growing need of performing meaningful probabilistic analysis of security. We propose a framework that integrates the graphical security modeling technique of attack–defense trees with probabilistic information expressed in terms of Bayesian networks. This allows us to perform
Probabilistic Design of Coastal Flood Defences in Vietnam
Mai Van, C.
2010-01-01
This study further develops the method of probabilistic design and to address a knowledge gap in its application regarding safety and reliability, risk assessment and risk evaluation to the fields of flood defences. The thesis discusses: - a generic probabilistic design framework for assessing flood
Probabilistic Sophistication, Second Order Stochastic Dominance, and Uncertainty Aversion
Simone Cerreia-Vioglio; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci; Luigi Montrucchio
2010-01-01
We study the interplay of probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance, and uncertainty aversion, three fundamental notions in choice under uncertainty. In particular, our main result, Theorem 2, characterizes uncertainty averse preferences that satisfy second order stochastic dominance, as well as uncertainty averse preferences that are probabilistically sophisticated.
When catalysis is useful for probabilistic entanglement transformation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feng Yuan; Duan Runyao; Ying Mingsheng
2004-01-01
We determine all 2x2 quantum states that can serve as useful catalysts for a given probabilistic entanglement transformation, in the sense that they can increase the maximal transformation probability. When higher-dimensional catalysts are considered, a sufficient and necessary condition is derived under which a certain probabilistic transformation has useful catalysts
Probabilistic G-Metric space and some fixed point results
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. R. Janfada
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In this note we introduce the notions of generalized probabilistic metric spaces and generalized Menger probabilistic metric spaces. After making our elementary observations and proving some basic properties of these spaces, we are going to prove some fixed point result in these spaces.
Error Immune Logic for Low-Power Probabilistic Computing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bo Marr
2010-01-01
design for the maximum amount of energy savings per a given error rate. Spice simulation results using a commercially available and well-tested 0.25 μm technology are given verifying the ultra-low power, probabilistic full-adder designs. Further, close to 6X energy savings is achieved for a probabilistic full-adder over the deterministic case.
Solving stochastic multiobjective vehicle routing problem using probabilistic metaheuristic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gannouni Asmae
2017-01-01
closed form expression. This novel approach is based on combinatorial probability and can be incorporated in a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. (iiProvide probabilistic approaches to elitism and diversification in multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. Finally, The behavior of the resulting Probabilistic Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms (PrMOEAs is empirically investigated on the multi-objective stochastic VRP problem.
Biological sequence analysis: probabilistic models of proteins and nucleic acids
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Durbin, Richard
1998-01-01
... analysis methods are now based on principles of probabilistic modelling. Examples of such methods include the use of probabilistically derived score matrices to determine the signiﬁcance of sequence alignments, the use of hidden Markov models as the basis for proﬁle searches to identify distant members of sequence families, and the inference...
Efficient probabilistic model checking on general purpose graphic processors
Bosnacki, D.; Edelkamp, S.; Sulewski, D.; Pasareanu, C.S.
2009-01-01
We present algorithms for parallel probabilistic model checking on general purpose graphic processing units (GPGPUs). For this purpose we exploit the fact that some of the basic algorithms for probabilistic model checking rely on matrix vector multiplication. Since this kind of linear algebraic
Pre-processing for Triangulation of Probabilistic Networks
Bodlaender, H.L.; Koster, A.M.C.A.; Eijkhof, F. van den; Gaag, L.C. van der
2001-01-01
The currently most efficient algorithm for inference with a probabilistic network builds upon a triangulation of a networks graph. In this paper, we show that pre-processing can help in finding good triangulations for probabilistic networks, that is, triangulations with a minimal maximum
On revision of partially specified convex probabilistic belief bases
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Rens, G
2016-08-01
Full Text Available We propose a method for an agent to revise its incomplete probabilistic beliefs when a new piece of propositional information is observed. In this work, an agent’s beliefs are represented by a set of probabilistic formulae – a belief base...
,
2008-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produced its first topographic map in 1879, the same year it was established. Today, more than 100 years and millions of map copies later, topographic mapping is still a central activity for the USGS. The topographic map remains an indispensable tool for government, science, industry, and leisure. Much has changed since early topographers traveled the unsettled West and carefully plotted the first USGS maps by hand. Advances in survey techniques, instrumentation, and design and printing technologies, as well as the use of aerial photography and satellite data, have dramatically improved mapping coverage, accuracy, and efficiency. Yet cartography, the art and science of mapping, may never before have undergone change more profound than today.
Probabilistic Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Composite Aircraft Components, Phase II
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Assessment Network (PFDAN) toolkit for Abaqus will be developed for probabilistic life management of a laminated composite structure...
Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program
Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T.; Thacker, B.; Riha, D.; Leung, C. P.
1992-01-01
The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.
Probabilistic programming in Python using PyMC3
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
John Salvatier
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Probabilistic programming allows for automatic Bayesian inference on user-defined probabilistic models. Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling allow inference on increasingly complex models. This class of MCMC, known as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, requires gradient information which is often not readily available. PyMC3 is a new open source probabilistic programming framework written in Python that uses Theano to compute gradients via automatic differentiation as well as compile probabilistic programs on-the-fly to C for increased speed. Contrary to other probabilistic programming languages, PyMC3 allows model specification directly in Python code. The lack of a domain specific language allows for great flexibility and direct interaction with the model. This paper is a tutorial-style introduction to this software package.
Probabilistic Hazard Estimation at a Densely Urbanised Area: the Neaples Volcanoes
de Natale, G.; Mastrolorenzo, G.; Panizza, A.; Pappalardo, L.; Claudia, T.
2005-12-01
The Neaples volcanic area (Southern Italy), including Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island, is the highest risk one in the World, where more than 2 million people live within about 10 km from an active volcanic vent. Such an extreme risk calls for accurate methodologies aimed to quantify it, in a probabilistic way, considering all the available volcanological information as well as modelling results. In fact, simple hazard maps based on the observation of deposits from past eruptions have the major problem that eruptive history generally samples a very limited number of possible outcomes, thus resulting almost meaningless to get the event probability in the area. This work describes a methodology making the best use (from a Bayesian point of view) of volcanological data and modelling results, to compute probabilistic hazard maps from multi-vent explosive eruptions. The method, which follows an approach recently developed by the same authors for pyroclastic flows hazard, has been here improved and extended to compute also fall-out hazard. The application of the method to the Neapolitan volcanic area, including the densely populated city of Naples, allows, for the first time, to get a global picture of the areal distribution for the main hazards from multi-vent explosive eruptions. From a joint consideration of the hazard contributions from all the three volcanic areas, new insight on the volcanic hazard distribution emerges, which will have strong implications for urban and emergency planning in the area.
Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.
2017-12-01
We develop a landslide hazard modeling approach that integrates a data-driven statistical model and a probabilistic process-based shallow landslide model for mapping probability of landslide initiation, transport, and deposition at regional scales. The empirical model integrates the influence of seven site attribute (SA) classes: elevation, slope, curvature, aspect, land use-land cover, lithology, and topographic wetness index, on over 1,600 observed landslides using a frequency ratio (FR) approach. A susceptibility index is calculated by adding FRs for each SA on a grid-cell basis. Using landslide observations we relate susceptibility index to an empirically-derived probability of landslide impact. This probability is combined with results from a physically-based model to produce an integrated probabilistic map. Slope was key in landslide initiation while deposition was linked to lithology and elevation. Vegetation transition from forest to alpine vegetation and barren land cover with lower root cohesion leads to higher frequency of initiation. Aspect effects are likely linked to differences in root cohesion and moisture controlled by solar insulation and snow. We demonstrate the model in the North Cascades of Washington, USA and identify locations of high and low probability of landslide impacts that can be used by land managers in their design, planning, and maintenance.
Development of Probabilistic Internal Dosimetry Computer Code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Noh, Siwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, Tae-Eun [Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Jai-Ki [Korean Association for Radiation Protection, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2017-02-15
Internal radiation dose assessment involves biokinetic models, the corresponding parameters, measured data, and many assumptions. Every component considered in the internal dose assessment has its own uncertainty, which is propagated in the intake activity and internal dose estimates. For research or scientific purposes, and for retrospective dose reconstruction for accident scenarios occurring in workplaces having a large quantity of unsealed radionuclides, such as nuclear power plants, nuclear fuel cycle facilities, and facilities in which nuclear medicine is practiced, a quantitative uncertainty assessment of the internal dose is often required. However, no calculation tools or computer codes that incorporate all the relevant processes and their corresponding uncertainties, i.e., from the measured data to the committed dose, are available. Thus, the objective of the present study is to develop an integrated probabilistic internal-dose-assessment computer code. First, the uncertainty components in internal dosimetry are identified, and quantitative uncertainty data are collected. Then, an uncertainty database is established for each component. In order to propagate these uncertainties in an internal dose assessment, a probabilistic internal-dose-assessment system that employs the Bayesian and Monte Carlo methods. Based on the developed system, we developed a probabilistic internal-dose-assessment code by using MATLAB so as to estimate the dose distributions from the measured data with uncertainty. Using the developed code, we calculated the internal dose distribution and statistical values (e.g. the 2.5{sup th}, 5{sup th}, median, 95{sup th}, and 97.5{sup th} percentiles) for three sample scenarios. On the basis of the distributions, we performed a sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of each component on the resulting dose in order to identify the major component of the uncertainty in a bioassay. The results of this study can be applied to various
Probabilistic data integration and computational complexity
Hansen, T. M.; Cordua, K. S.; Mosegaard, K.
2016-12-01
Inverse problems in Earth Sciences typically refer to the problem of inferring information about properties of the Earth from observations of geophysical data (the result of nature's solution to the `forward' problem). This problem can be formulated more generally as a problem of `integration of information'. A probabilistic formulation of data integration is in principle simple: If all information available (from e.g. geology, geophysics, remote sensing, chemistry…) can be quantified probabilistically, then different algorithms exist that allow solving the data integration problem either through an analytical description of the combined probability function, or sampling the probability function. In practice however, probabilistic based data integration may not be easy to apply successfully. This may be related to the use of sampling methods, which are known to be computationally costly. But, another source of computational complexity is related to how the individual types of information are quantified. In one case a data integration problem is demonstrated where the goal is to determine the existence of buried channels in Denmark, based on multiple sources of geo-information. Due to one type of information being too informative (and hence conflicting), this leads to a difficult sampling problems with unrealistic uncertainty. Resolving this conflict prior to data integration, leads to an easy data integration problem, with no biases. In another case it is demonstrated how imperfections in the description of the geophysical forward model (related to solving the wave-equation) can lead to a difficult data integration problem, with severe bias in the results. If the modeling error is accounted for, the data integration problems becomes relatively easy, with no apparent biases. Both examples demonstrate that biased information can have a dramatic effect on the computational efficiency solving a data integration problem and lead to biased results, and under
Development of Probabilistic Internal Dosimetry Computer Code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Noh, Siwan; Kwon, Tae-Eun; Lee, Jai-Ki
2017-01-01
Internal radiation dose assessment involves biokinetic models, the corresponding parameters, measured data, and many assumptions. Every component considered in the internal dose assessment has its own uncertainty, which is propagated in the intake activity and internal dose estimates. For research or scientific purposes, and for retrospective dose reconstruction for accident scenarios occurring in workplaces having a large quantity of unsealed radionuclides, such as nuclear power plants, nuclear fuel cycle facilities, and facilities in which nuclear medicine is practiced, a quantitative uncertainty assessment of the internal dose is often required. However, no calculation tools or computer codes that incorporate all the relevant processes and their corresponding uncertainties, i.e., from the measured data to the committed dose, are available. Thus, the objective of the present study is to develop an integrated probabilistic internal-dose-assessment computer code. First, the uncertainty components in internal dosimetry are identified, and quantitative uncertainty data are collected. Then, an uncertainty database is established for each component. In order to propagate these uncertainties in an internal dose assessment, a probabilistic internal-dose-assessment system that employs the Bayesian and Monte Carlo methods. Based on the developed system, we developed a probabilistic internal-dose-assessment code by using MATLAB so as to estimate the dose distributions from the measured data with uncertainty. Using the developed code, we calculated the internal dose distribution and statistical values (e.g. the 2.5 th , 5 th , median, 95 th , and 97.5 th percentiles) for three sample scenarios. On the basis of the distributions, we performed a sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of each component on the resulting dose in order to identify the major component of the uncertainty in a bioassay. The results of this study can be applied to various situations. In cases
Probabilistic Radiological Performance Assessment Modeling and Uncertainty
Tauxe, J.
2004-12-01
A generic probabilistic radiological Performance Assessment (PA) model is presented. The model, built using the GoldSim systems simulation software platform, concerns contaminant transport and dose estimation in support of decision making with uncertainty. Both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) require assessments of potential future risk to human receptors of disposal of LLW. Commercially operated LLW disposal facilities are licensed by the NRC (or agreement states), and the DOE operates such facilities for disposal of DOE-generated LLW. The type of PA model presented is probabilistic in nature, and hence reflects the current state of knowledge about the site by using probability distributions to capture what is expected (central tendency or average) and the uncertainty (e.g., standard deviation) associated with input parameters, and propagating through the model to arrive at output distributions that reflect expected performance and the overall uncertainty in the system. Estimates of contaminant release rates, concentrations in environmental media, and resulting doses to human receptors well into the future are made by running the model in Monte Carlo fashion, with each realization representing a possible combination of input parameter values. Statistical summaries of the results can be compared to regulatory performance objectives, and decision makers are better informed of the inherently uncertain aspects of the model which supports their decision-making. While this information may make some regulators uncomfortable, they must realize that uncertainties which were hidden in a deterministic analysis are revealed in a probabilistic analysis, and the chance of making a correct decision is now known rather than hoped for. The model includes many typical features and processes that would be part of a PA, but is entirely fictitious. This does not represent any particular site and is meant to be a generic example. A
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-01-01
The purpose of this Safety Report is to provide guidelines on the role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) and a range of associated reference points, collectively referred to as probabilistic safety criteria (PSC), in nuclear safety. The application of this Safety Report and the supporting Safety Practice publication should help to ensure that PSA methodology is used appropriately to assess and enhance the safety of nuclear power plants. The guidelines are intended for use by nuclear power plant designers, operators and regulators. While these guidelines have been prepared with nuclear power plants in mind, the principles involved have wide application to other nuclear and non-nuclear facilities. In Section 2 of this Safety Report guidelines are established on the role PSA can play as part of an overall safety assurance programme. Section 3 summarizes guidelines for the conduct of PSAs, and in Section 4 a PSC framework is recommended and guidance is provided for the establishment of PSC values
Bloch, Isabelle
2010-01-01
The area of information fusion has grown considerably during the last few years, leading to a rapid and impressive evolution. In such fast-moving times, it is important to take stock of the changes that have occurred. As such, this books offers an overview of the general principles and specificities of information fusion in signal and image processing, as well as covering the main numerical methods (probabilistic approaches, fuzzy sets and possibility theory and belief functions).
Augmenting Probabilistic Risk Assesment with Malevolent Initiators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, Curtis; Schwieder, David
2011-01-01
As commonly practiced, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in nuclear power plants only considers accident initiators such as natural hazards, equipment failures, and human error. Malevolent initiators are ignored in PRA, but are considered the domain of physical security, which uses vulnerability assessment based on an officially specified threat (design basis threat). This paper explores the implications of augmenting and extending existing PRA models by considering new and modified scenarios resulting from malevolent initiators. Teaming the augmented PRA models with conventional vulnerability assessments can cost-effectively enhance security of a nuclear power plant. This methodology is useful for operating plants, as well as in the design of new plants. For the methodology, we have proposed an approach that builds on and extends the practice of PRA for nuclear power plants for security-related issues. Rather than only considering 'random' failures, we demonstrated a framework that is able to represent and model malevolent initiating events and associated plant impacts.
Constrained mathematics evaluation in probabilistic logic analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arlin Cooper, J
1998-06-01
A challenging problem in mathematically processing uncertain operands is that constraints inherent in the problem definition can require computations that are difficult to implement. Examples of possible constraints are that the sum of the probabilities of partitioned possible outcomes must be one, and repeated appearances of the same variable must all have the identical value. The latter, called the 'repeated variable problem', will be addressed in this paper in order to show how interval-based probabilistic evaluation of Boolean logic expressions, such as those describing the outcomes of fault trees and event trees, can be facilitated in a way that can be readily implemented in software. We will illustrate techniques that can be used to transform complex constrained problems into trivial problems in most tree logic expressions, and into tractable problems in most other cases.
Probabilistic safety assessment of the Fugen NPS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sotsu, Masutake; Iguchi, Yukihiro; Mizuno, Kouichi; Sato, Shinichirou; Shimizu, Miwako
1999-01-01
We performed a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) on the Fugen NPS. The main topic of assessment was internal factors. We assessment core damage frequency (level 1 PSA) and containment damage frequency (level 2 PSA) during rated operation, and core damage frequency during shutdown (PSA during shutdowns). Our assessment showed that the core damage frequency of Fugen is well below the IAEA criteria for existing plants, that the conditional containment damage during shutdown is almost the target value of 0.1, and that the core damage frequency during shutdown is almost the same as that assessed during operation. These results confirm that the Fugen plant maintains a sufficient safety margin during shutdowns for regular inspections and for refueling. We developed and verified the effectiveness of an accident management plan incorporating the results of the assessment. (author)
Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita
2013-06-01
The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module
Development of probabilistic risk analysis library
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi
2015-01-01
We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)
Human reliability in probabilistic safety assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nunez Mendez, J.
1989-01-01
Nowadays a growing interest in medioambiental aspects is detected in our country. It implies an assessment of the risk involved in the industrial processess and installations in order to determine if those are into the acceptable limits. In these safety assessments, among which PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessments), can be pointed out the role played by the human being in the system is one of the more relevant subjects. (This relevance has been demostrated in the accidents happenned). However in Spain there aren't manuals specifically dedicated to asses the human contribution to risk in the frame of PSAs. This report aims to improve this situation providing: a) a theoretical background to help the reader in the understanding of the nature of the human error, b) a guide to carry out a Human Reliability Analysis and c) a selected overwiev of the techniques and methodologies currently applied in this area. (Author)
PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR AIRPORT RUNWAY SAFETY AREAS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stanislav SZABO
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The Laboratory of Aviation Safety and Security at CTU in Prague has recently started a project aimed at runway protection zones. The probability of exceeding by a certain distance from the runway in common incident/accident scenarios (take-off/landing overrun/veer-off, landing undershoot is being identified relative to the runway for any airport. As a result, the size and position of safety areas around runways are defined for the chosen probability. The basis for probability calculation is a probabilistic model using statistics from more than 1400 real-world cases where jet airplanes have been involved over the last few decades. Other scientific studies have contributed to understanding the issue and supported the model’s application to different conditions.
Reasoning about complex probabilistic concepts in childhood.
Fisk, John E; Bury, Angela S; Holden, Rachel
2006-12-01
The competencies of children, particularly their understanding of the more complex probabilistic concepts, have not been thoroughly investigated. In the present study participants were required to choose the more likely of two events, a single event, and a joint event (conjunctive or disjunctive). It was predicted that the operation of the representativeness heuristic would result in erroneous judgements when children compared an unlikely component event with a likely-unlikely conjunction (the conjunction fallacy) and when a likely component event was compared to a likely-unlikely disjunction. The results supported the first prediction with both older children aged between 9 and 10 years and younger children aged between 4 and 5 committing the conjunction fallacy. However, the second prediction was not confirmed. It is proposed that the basis of representativeness judgements may differ between the conjunctive and disjunctive cases with absolute frequency information possibly playing a differential role.
Accident simulator development for probabilistic safety analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacciabue, P.C.; Amendola, A.; Mancini, G.
1985-01-01
This paper describes the basic features of a new concept of incident simulator, Response System Analyzed (RSA) which is being developed within the CEC JRC Research Program on Reactor Safety. Focusing on somewhat different aims than actual simulators, RSA development extends the field of application of simulators to the area of risk and reliability analysis and in particular to the identification of relevant sequences, to the modeling of human behavior and to the validation of operating procedures. The fundamental components of the project, i.e. the deterministic transient model of the plant, the automatic probabilistic driver and the human possible intervention modeling, are discussed in connection with the problem of their dynamic interaction. The analyses so far performed by separately testing RSA on significant study cases have shown encouraging results and have proven the feasibility of the overall program
Human Reliability in Probabilistic Safety Assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nunez Mendez, J.
1989-01-01
Nowadays a growing interest in environmental aspects is detected in our country. It implies an assessment of the risk involved in the industrial processes and installations in order to determine if those are into the acceptable limits. In these safety assessments, among which PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessments), can be pointed out the role played by the human being in the system is one of the more relevant subjects (This relevance has been demonstrated in the accidents happened) . However, in Spain there aren't manuals specifically dedicated to asses the human contribution to risk in the frame of PSAs. This report aims to improve this situation providing: a) a theoretical background to help the reader in the understanding of the nature of the human error, b) a quid to carry out a Human Reliability Analysis and c) a selected overview of the techniques and methodologies currently applied in this area. (Author) 20 refs
Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hauptmanns, U.
1988-01-01
Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)
Probabilistic relationships in acceptable risk studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benjamin, J.R.
1977-01-01
Acceptable risk studies involve uncertainties in future events: consequences and associated values, the acceptability levels, and the future decision environment. Probabilistic procedures afford the basic analytical tool to study the influence of each of these parameters on the acceptable risk decision, including their interrelationships, and combinations. A series of examples are presented in the paper in increasing complexity to illustrate the principles involved and to quantify the relationships to the acceptable risk decision. The basic objective of such studies is to broaden the scientific basis of acceptable risk decision making. It is shown that rationality and consistency in decision making is facilitated by such studies and that rather simple relationships exist in many situations of interest. The variation in criteria associated with an increase in the state of knowledge or change in the level of acceptability is also discussed
N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baxter, J.T.
1989-01-01
An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented
Probabilistic Modeling of Graded Timber Material Properties
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Faber, M. H.; Köhler, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
2004-01-01
The probabilistic modeling of timber material characteristics is considered with special emphasis to the modeling of the effect of different quality control and selection procedures used as means for quality grading in the production line. It is shown how statistical models may be established...... on the basis of the same type of information which is normally collected as a part of the quality control procedures and furthermore, how the efficiency of different control procedures may be quantified and compared. The tail behavior of the probability distributions of timber material characteristics plays...... such that they may readily be applied in structural reliability analysis and their format appears to be appropriate for codification purposes of quality control and selection for grading procedures....
Probabilistic Modelling of Timber Material Properties
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber; Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
2001-01-01
The probabilistic modeling of timber material characteristics is considered with special emphasis to the modeling of the effect of different quality control and selection procedures used as means for grading of timber in the production line. It is shown how statistical models may be established...... on the basis of the same type of information which is normally collected as a part of the quality control procedures and furthermore, how the efficiency of different control procedures may be compared. The tail behavior of the probability distributions of timber material characteristics play an important role...... such that they may readily be applied in structural reliability analysis and the format appears to be appropriate for codification purposes of quality control and selection for grading procedures...
Probabilistic relationships in acceptable risk studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benjamin, J.R.
1977-01-01
Acceptable risk studies involve uncertainties in future events; consequences and associated values, the acceptability levels, and the future decision environment. Probabilistic procedures afford the basic analytical tool to study the influence of each of these parameters on the acceptable risk decision, including their interrelationships, and combinations. A series of examples are presented in the paper in increasing complexity to illustrate the principles involved and to quantify the relationships to the acceptable risk decision. The basic objective of such studies is to broaden the scientific basis of acceptable risk decision making. It is shown that rationality and consistency in decision making is facilitated by such studies and that rather simple relationships exist in many situations of interest. The variation in criteria associated with an increase in the state of knowledge or change in the level of acceptability is also discussed. (Auth.)
Probabilistic recognition of human faces from video
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhou, Saohua; Krüger, Volker; Chellappa, Rama
2003-01-01
Recognition of human faces using a gallery of still or video images and a probe set of videos is systematically investigated using a probabilistic framework. In still-to-video recognition, where the gallery consists of still images, a time series state space model is proposed to fuse temporal...... of the identity variable produces the recognition result. The model formulation is very general and it allows a variety of image representations and transformations. Experimental results using videos collected by NIST/USF and CMU illustrate the effectiveness of this approach for both still-to-video and video-to-video...... information in a probe video, which simultaneously characterizes the kinematics and identity using a motion vector and an identity variable, respectively. The joint posterior distribution of the motion vector and the identity variable is estimated at each time instant and then propagated to the next time...