WorldWideScience

Sample records for lender risk rating

  1. 75 FR 9257 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    ... identifying those SBA Lenders whose portfolio performance, or other Lender-specific risk-related factors, may... to enhance the predictive value of the model over the earlier model factors. II. The Redeveloped Risk... values of the risk rating model for 7(a) Lenders and was therefore included as a new 7(a) rating...

  2. 75 FR 13145 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... of Credit Risk Management, U.S. Small Business Administration, 409 Third Street, SW., 8th Floor...)(7) and 15 U.S.C. 687(f). Dated: March 12, 2010. Bryan Hooper, Director, Office of Credit Risk... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION [Docket No. SBA-2010-0004] SBA Lender Risk Rating System AGENCY...

  3. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

  4. 13 CFR 120.410 - Requirements for all participating Lenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... performance, as determined by SBA in its discretion. The 7(a) Lender's Risk Rating, among other factors, will... Lenders. 120.410 Section 120.410 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Lenders Participation Criteria § 120.410 Requirements for all participating Lenders. A Lender must...

  5. 12 CFR 617.7125 - How should a qualified lender determine the effective interest rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... effective interest rate? 617.7125 Section 617.7125 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM BORROWER RIGHTS Disclosure of Effective Interest Rates § 617.7125 How should a qualified lender determine the effective interest rate? (a) A qualified lender must calculate the effective interest rate on...

  6. 13 CFR 120.451 - How does a Lender become a PLP Lender?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    .... The Lender's Risk Rating, among other factors, will be considered in determining satisfactory SBA... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How does a Lender become a PLP Lender? 120.451 Section 120.451 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS...

  7. 13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating to all SBA Lenders, Intermediaries, and NTAPs on a periodic basis. Risk Ratings are based on certain... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015...

  8. 13 CFR 120.424 - What are the basic conditions a Lender must meet to securitize?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... performance, as determined by SBA in its discretion. The Lender's Risk Rating, among other factors, will be... Lender must meet to securitize? 120.424 Section 120.424 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Lenders Participating Lender Financings § 120.424 What are the basic conditions a...

  9. 13 CFR 120.213 - What fixed interest rates may a Lender charge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Lender charge? 120.213 Section 120.213 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION... have a reasonable fixed interest rate. SBA periodically publishes the maximum allowable rate in the... government determines the interest rate on direct loans. SBA publishes the rate periodically in the Federal...

  10. 13 CFR 120.1060 - Confidentiality of Reports, Risk Ratings and related Confidential Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1060... Lender, Intermediary, or NTAP for its confidential use only. The Reports, Risk Ratings, and related... written permission. An SBA Lender, Intermediary, and NTAP may use the Report, Risk Rating, and...

  11. 13 CFR 120.1400 - Grounds for enforcement actions-SBA Lenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...-SBA Lenders. 120.1400 Section 120.1400 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Enforcement Actions § 120.1400 Grounds for enforcement actions... Lender (regardless of its Risk Rating) include: (1) Failure to maintain eligibility requirements for...

  12. Discharge of residual debt: Do private and institutional lenders differ?

    OpenAIRE

    Kirchkamp, Oliver; Prömpers, Henning

    2013-01-01

    With the help of lab experiments we study the impact of discharging insolvent debtors of their residual debt. We investigate the impact of different participation rules and the impact of different types of lenders. We find that higher participation rates encourage risk taking behaviour of borrowers. Higher participation rates also reduce the amount of moonlighting. Most importantly, institutional lenders can suffer more from moonlighting than private lenders.

  13. 12 CFR 617.7105 - When must a qualified lender disclose the effective interest rate to a borrower?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false When must a qualified lender disclose the effective interest rate to a borrower? 617.7105 Section 617.7105 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT... contract that specifically provides for future advances. ...

  14. Oil price risk management in the 1990s - issues for producers and lenders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, S.

    1994-01-01

    Oil prices have exhibited considerable volatility over the past five or ten years and the management of oil price risk has become an important factor in underpinning the viability of many oil producing operations from both a lender's and investor's perspective. Various oil based hedging products are now available to protect against such volatility, ranging from products which fix forward prices to option based arrangements which set a floor price but retain some (or all) of the potential upside. These products have particular relevance for petroleum companies with limited financial resources or who are looking to limit recourse to particular assets/cash flows. There are a number of techniques which can be successfully combined to mitigate oil price volatility and the most relevant of these to a producer are discussed. The recent development of the Tapis swap and option markets, which have provided flexibility to Australasian producers, is also discussed. Oil based financial products can also be used as a method of funding (e.g. for a development or acquisition) as an alternative to traditional cash based borrowing structures, thus creating a natural hedge against oil price movements. It is estimated that the use of such structures, coupled with a well structured revenue hedging program, can enhance a project's attractiveness from a lender's perspective (particularly with respect to protection against down side movements in oil price) and/or provide greater certainty of returns to producers. A case study of a recent commodity risk management based financing is presented. 1 fig., 6 tabs

  15. 13 CFR 120.1600 - General procedures for enforcement actions against SBA Lenders, SBA Supervised Lenders, Other...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Enforcement Actions § 120.1600 General procedures for enforcement actions against SBA Lenders, SBA Supervised Lenders, Other Regulated SBLCs... actions against SBA Lenders, SBA Supervised Lenders, Other Regulated SBLCs, Management Officials, Other...

  16. 13 CFR 120.1070 - Lender oversight fees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Lender oversight fees. 120.1070 Section 120.1070 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1070 Lender oversight fees. Lenders are required to pay to SBA fees to...

  17. Do Lower Lender Subsidies Reduce Guaranteed Student Loan Supply?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, D. Andrew

    2010-01-01

    The article analyzes effects of borrower interest rates and student lender subsidies on federally guaranteed student loan volumes from 1988 to 1994 and from 1996 to 2006. Some have argued that lender subsidy cuts would reduce loan supply or cause lenders to exit the student loan market. If lenders get economic rents due to overly generous…

  18. The role of lenders' trust in determining borrowing conditions for sovereign debt: An analysis of one-period government bonds with default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Yanling

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the author considers the sovereign debt in the form of one-period government bonds with default risk, which can be purchased by and traded among domestic and foreign investors. She shows that the weight assigned to the lenders' interest by the borrowing government at the time of debt repayment, which captures the lenders' trust in the government's propensity to repay the debt and is denoted as », also determines the default risk: a higher » means a lower default risk ceteris pa...

  19. 77 FR 3598 - Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Single Family Lender Insurance Process: Eligibility...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-25

    ... close loans or to endorse loans through the Lender Insurance process. Regardless of the risk assessment... a more lenient standard for retaining Lender Insurance authority is not acceptable from a risk... will be marginal change for those lenders with ineffective risk management practices and those lenders...

  20. 75 FR 62335 - Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Single Family Lender Insurance Process: Eligibility...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-08

    ... those lenders with ineffective risk management practices and/or those lenders who have refused to... a marginal impact on those lenders with ineffective risk management practices and who have refused... has any impact, it will be as a consequence of the lender's inability to maintain acceptable risk...

  1. Do Lower Lender Subsidies Reduce Guaranteed Student Loan Supply?

    OpenAIRE

    D. Andrew Austin

    2010-01-01

    The article analyzes effects of borrower interest rates and student lender subsidies on federally guaranteed student loan volumes from 1988 to 1994 and from 1996 to 2006. Some have argued that lender subsidy cuts would reduce loan supply or cause lenders to exit the student loan market. If lenders get economic rents due to overly generous subsidies, a simple model of the student loan market suggests that small changes in subsidy levels should not affect loan supply. Empirical results based on...

  2. Mortgage lenders and loans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalbers, M.B.; Smith, S.J.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a short historical overview of the different types of lenders that are active in the origination of residential mortgage loans. First, a distinction is made between depository and nondepository lenders. Second, there are two major types of depository lenders: commercial banks,

  3. How SEA can inform lenders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banhalmi-Zakar, Zsuzsa; Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    SEA can be a powerful tool to improve decision-making for plans, policies and programmes, but it can also be a useful for banks. SEA can help lenders address the reputational risks they are exposed to through financing projects that may have a negative impact on the environment and it can also help......, such as in the credit policies. It was also found that in some cases lenders become involved in project planning at a very early stage, when projects are conceptualized, and certainly before formal approval is sought from relevant authorities and an EIA is conducted. This suggests that SEA can be a useful tool...

  4. 13 CFR 120.1010 - SBA access to SBA Lender, Intermediary, and NTAP files.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1010 SBA access to SBA Lender, Intermediary, and NTAP files. An SBA Lender, Intermediary, and NTAP must allow SBA's authorized representatives... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false SBA access to SBA Lender...

  5. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  6. How strategic environmental assessment can inform lenders about potential environmental risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banhalmi-Zakar, Zsuzsa; Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the potential for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) to be a useful tool for banks to manage environmental risks and inform lending decisions. SEA is an environmental assessment tool that was developed to assist strategic-level decision-makers, such as policy......-makers, planners, government authorities and environmental practitioners in improving developmental outcomes, aiming to facilitate the transition to sustainable development. We propose that SEA may also be a valuable tool for banks because it has the capacity to provide information about environmental risks...... at a time when it can be used as an input to bank lending decisions, which can assist banks in making lending decisions with better environmental outcomes. For these reasons, we argue that in some circumstances, and particularly for project finance transactions, SEA may be a more useful environmental...

  7. 77 FR 21991 - Federal Housing Administration (FHA): Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP)-Lender and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-12

    .... This practice would mitigate risk, since MAP lenders and underwriters will now be approved at a tier... Administration (FHA): Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP)--Lender and Underwriter Eligibility Criteria and Credit Watch for MAP Lenders AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary for Housing--Federal Housing...

  8. 13 CFR 120.1500 - Types of enforcement actions-SBA Lenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Lenders. 120.1500 Section 120.1500 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Enforcement Actions § 120.1500 Types of enforcement actions—SBA Lenders. Upon a determination that the grounds set forth in § 120.1400 exist, SBA may undertake, in SBA's...

  9. 76 FR 34091 - Notice of Proposed Information Collection for Public Comment; FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-10

    ... managing its financial risks and protect consumers from lender noncompliance with FHA rules and regulations... Information Collection for Public Comment; FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal, Periodic Updates and Noncompliance Reporting by FHA Approved Lenders AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary for Housing, HUD...

  10. 12 CFR 617.7130 - What initial disclosures must a qualified lender make to a borrower?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... lender make to a borrower? 617.7130 Section 617.7130 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM... must a qualified lender make to a borrower? (a) Required disclosures—in general. A qualified lender... certificates that borrowers are required to purchase are at risk and may only be retired at the discretion of...

  11. 78 FR 13999 - Maximum Interest Rates on Guaranteed Farm Loans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-04

    ... (LIBOR) or the 5-year Treasury note rate, unless the lender uses a formal written risk-based pricing... alternative means for communications should contact the USDA Target Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD...: Lenders using risk-based pricing practices specified in 7 CFR 762.124(a) would not have to use the indexed...

  12. 78 FR 40312 - 30-Day Notice of Proposed Information Collection: FHA TOTAL (Technology Open to Approved Lenders...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-03

    ... lender and used for scoring, loan underwriting and additional risk & fraud evaluation. [ssquf] Risk... Information Collection: FHA TOTAL (Technology Open to Approved Lenders) Mortgage Scorecard AGENCY: Office of... (Technology Open to Approved Lenders) Mortgage Scorecard. OMB Approval Number: 2502-0556. Type of Request...

  13. 75 FR 50801 - Reverse Mortgage Products: Guidance for Managing Compliance and Reputation Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-17

    ... risks to lenders, too, such as credit, interest rate, and liquidity risks,\\4\\ especially for proprietary... mortgages, proprietary reverse mortgages also present the risk that lenders will be unable to meet their... for Managing Compliance and Reputation Risks AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency...

  14. Guaranteed Student Loans: Profits of Secondary Market Lenders Vary Widely. United States General Accounting Office Briefing Report to Congressional Requesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Div. of Human Resources.

    This report was prepared to determine lenders' rates of return or profitability on Stafford loans in their portfolios, reasons for varying levels of profitability among institutions that hold such loans, and the effect of 1986 subsidy reductions on these lenders' profitability. The study focused on the activities of lenders that purchase Stafford…

  15. Liquidity Risk and Syndicate Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Evan Gatev; Philip Strahan

    2008-01-01

    We offer a new explanation of loan syndicate structure based on banks' comparative advantage in managing systematic liquidity risk. When a syndicated loan to a rated borrower has systematic liquidity risk, the fraction of passive participant lenders that are banks is about 8% higher than for loans without liquidity risk. In contrast, liquidity risk does not explain the share of banks as lead lenders. Using a new measure of ex-ante liquidity risk exposure, we find further evidence that syndica...

  16. 13 CFR 120.440 - The Certified Lenders Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Lenders Certified Lenders Program (clp) § 120.440 The Certified Lenders Program. Under the Certified Lenders Program (CLP), designated Lenders process and close 7(a) loans and service and liquidate such.... All other rules in this part 120 relating to the operations of Lenders apply to CLP Lenders. ...

  17. How do mortgage lenders influence neighbourhood dynamics? Redlining and predatory lending

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalbers, M.B.; van Ham, M.; Manley, D.; Bailey, N.; Simpson, L.; Maclennan, D.

    2013-01-01

    Manuel Aalbers argues that the actions of mortgage lenders can play an important role in understanding the trajectories of some of the most deprived neighbourhoods in Western cities. Mortgage lenders use the notion of the neighbourhood as a means to reduce their risk or to extract profit, and as

  18. HUD Subprime and Manufactured Home Lender List

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) periodically produce its HUD Subprime and Manufactured home Lender List for the lenders who specialize in...

  19. 7 CFR 1779.27 - Lenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Lenders. 1779.27 Section 1779.27 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS GUARANTEED LOANS § 1779.27 Lenders. (a) Eligible lenders...

  20. Management of interest rate risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interest rate risk is one of the biggest and most dangerous risks that a bank is exposed to. When a change of interest rates occurs, the incomes of a bank based on credits and securities endure significant changes. Banks resources also endure some changes. The change of interest rates changes the value of the assets and liabilities of the bank and it's net and investment worth . The change of interest rates also affects bank's balance sheet, income sheet statement and bank's share capital.

  1. 13 CFR 120.462 - What are SBA's additional requirements on capital maintenance for SBA Supervised Lenders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... capital that each SBA Supervised Lender must maintain to protect against the credit risk and other general... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What are SBA's additional requirements on capital maintenance for SBA Supervised Lenders? 120.462 Section 120.462 Business Credit and...

  2. 24 CFR 202.9 - Investing lenders and mortgagees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Investing lenders and mortgagees... Investing lenders and mortgagees. (a) Definition. An investing lender or mortgagee is an organization that is not approved under any other section of this part. An investing lender or mortgagee may purchase...

  3. 13 CFR 120.441 - How does a Lender become a CLP Lender?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How does a Lender become a CLP Lender? 120.441 Section 120.441 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS... satisfactory performance history with SBA, including the submission of complete and accurate loan guarantee...

  4. 24 CFR 232.865 - Election by lender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... FACILITIES Contract Rights and Obligations Rights and Duties of Lender Under the Contract of Insurance § 232.865 Election by lender. Where a real estate mortgage, or other security instrument has been used to...

  5. 24 CFR 241.865 - Election by the lender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Without a HUD-Insured or HUD-Held Mortgage Rights and Duties of Lender Under the Contract of Insurance § 241.865 Election by the lender. Where a real estate mortgage, or other security instrument has been...

  6. 7 CFR 762.105 - Eligibility and substitution of lenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... from participation in Government contracts or programs or be delinquent on a Government debt. (c... writing by executing a modification of the guarantee to identify the new lender, the amount of debt at the... the loan. (d) Lender name or ownership changes. (1) When a lender begins doing business under a new...

  7. 75 FR 28814 - FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal, Periodic Updates and Required Reports From FHA Approved Lenders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-24

    ... proposal. This information is required for: (1) FHA lender approval, (2) Annual renewal of each FHA lender... following information: Title of Proposal: FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal, Periodic Updates and Required... and HUD-92001-C. Description of the Need for the Information and Its Proposed Use: This information is...

  8. The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Claude Cosset; Jean Roy

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to replicate Euromoney's and Institutional Investor's country risk ratings on the basis of economic and political variables. The evidence reveals that country risk ratings respond to some of the variables suggested by the theory. In particular, both the level of per capita income and propensity to invest affect positively the rating of a country. In addition, high-ranking countries are less indebted than low-ranking countries. It also appears that the ability of t...

  9. WHOLE FARM RISK-RATING MICROCOMPUTER MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, Kim B.; Ikerd, John E.

    1985-01-01

    The Risk-Rating Model is designed to give extension specialists, teachers, and producers a method to analyze production, marketing, and financial risks. These risks may be analyzed either individually or simultaneously. The risk associated with each enterprise, for all combinations of enterprises, and for any combination of marketing strategies is estimated. Optimistic, expected, and pessimistic returns above variable cost and/or total cost are presented in the results. The probability that t...

  10. 40 CFR 281.39 - Lender liability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Lender liability. 281.39 Section 281.39 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SOLID WASTES (CONTINUED... petroleum production, refining, and marketing as defined under § 280.200(b) of this chapter is not: (A) An...

  11. 7 CFR 4279.29 - Eligible lenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL BUSINESS-COOPERATIVE SERVICE AND RURAL... have the legal authority to operate a lending program and sufficient lending expertise and financial... consideration to become a guaranteed lender must submit a request in writing to the State Office for the State...

  12. Rising Interest Rate Risk at US Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Bednar, William; Elamin, Mahmoud

    2014-01-01

    Average interest rate risk in the banking system has been increasing since the end of the financial crisis and is almost back to its pre-recession level. But the increase has not occurred uniformly at large and small banks. At big banks, risk, while increasing, hasn’t yet reached its pre-recession high. It’s in small banks where we see a steep rise in interest rate risk. The big banks’ exposure is being driven mainly by their liabilities. At small banks, it is coming from both their assets an...

  13. Currency Risk Management under Floating Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicu Duret

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available As for the research into this subject, we find, therefore, that one of the most important indicators that quantify the international competitiveness is the exchange rate, together with other fundamental macroeconomic variables such as the size of the potential GDP, the equilibrium real exchange rate, gives a certain insight into the functioning of the fundamental macroeconomic mechanisms and their regulation. Commercial and financial operations imply relationships between partners from different currency countries or areas that involve conversion operations, of replacement of a currency to another. Exchange rate fluctuations of one currency create currency risk, to the extent that it is used to carry out international transactions. These operations are subjected to currency risk as exchange rates change frequently from one period to another and, on the other hand, speculations in the forex market influence the exchange rate by the interventions of those who perform them.

  14. 12 CFR 560.110 - Most favored lender usury preemption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Most favored lender usury preemption. 560.110... INVESTMENT Lending and Investment Provisions Applicable to all Savings Associations § 560.110 Most favored... permits its most favored lender to charge late fees, then a savings association located in that state may...

  15. 24 CFR 202.8 - Loan correspondent lenders and mortgagees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... terminated. (3) Audit report. A loan correspondent lender or mortgagee must comply with the financial... definition of a supervised lender or mortgagee in § 202.6(a) need not file annual audit reports. Audit... Secretary and an analysis of escrow funds; and (ii) Such other financial information as the Secretary may...

  16. 7 CFR 1779.8 - Access to lender's records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Access to lender's records. 1779.8 Section 1779.8 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS GUARANTEED LOANS § 1779.8 Access to lender's records...

  17. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  18. An Investigation into the Fundamental Drivers of Pricing of Residential Mortgage Products – A Risk Pricing Viewpoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry M Karamujic

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Residential mortgage products (also known as home loans pricing has been long understood to be something of a ‘dark art’, requiring judgment and experience, rather than being an exact science. In the last decade, a lot has changed in this field and more and more lenders, primarily the larger lenders, are increasingly looking to make their pricing as exact as possible. Even so, inadequate pricing of residential mortgage products (in particular its substandard risk pricing has been seen as one of major causes of the global financial crisis (GFC and subsequent spectacular banking collapses. The underlying theme of the paper is to exhibit how contemporary lenders, in practice, price their residential mortgage products. While discussing elements of the pricing calculation particular attention was given to the exposition of how contemporary lenders price risks involved in providing home loans. Because of the importance of Basel capital accords to how financial institutions assess and quantify their risks, the paper provides an overview of Basel capital accords. The author envisages that the paper will (i help enhance comprehension of the underlying elements of the pricing calculation and the ways in which these elements relate to each other, (ii scrutinize how contemporary lenders identify and quantify risks and (iii improve consciousness of future changes in interest rates

  19. Exchange Rate Risk On The Mortgage Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siemińska Ewa

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Strict connections of the real estate market with the financial market are an unquestionable phenomenon at every level of investing, starting from the lowest individual investor, and finishing with national and transnational players. One of the more interesting examples of such a dependency is the problem of the risk of financing the real estate market, which results from numerous macro-, mezo- and microeconomic conditions, including, inter alias, the phenomenon of capital migration, supranational bank regulations or the development of currency exchange rates on world markets. The most recent example of such a dependency is, among others, the decision of the National Bank of Switzerland from the beginning of 2015 to abandon the Swiss franc-euro cap, which will go down in the history of the world financial market. Its global effects will surely be very difficult to assess, while the resulting turbulences and consequences for many (institutional, corporation and individual market participants cause, on the one hand, awaiting a reaction and actions aimed at helping entities affected by the consequences of the mentioned decision and, on the other, many questions and doubts.

  20. 42 CFR 60.43 - Limitation, suspension, or termination of the eligibility of a HEAL lender or holder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... notice, sent by certified mail, specifying his or her intention to terminate the lender or holder's... that a HEAL lender fails to meet the statutory definition of an “eligible lender.” (d) This section...

  1. Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schabert, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and independent of sovereign default.

  2. Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

    2018-05-01

    for not to predict lenders' bankruptcy by construction; (b) to meet more reliable estimates along with the new regulatory standards, the sample to estimate migration rates matrices for credit risk should include either entries and exits; (c) the static eigen-decomposition standard procedure to forecast migration rates should be replaced with a stochastic process dynamics methodology while conditioning forecasts to macroeconomic scenarios.

  3. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating: Development and Initial Psychometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Michael; Newgent, Rebecca A.

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the development and psychometrics of the Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating. The Juvenile Addiction Risk Rating is a brief screening of addiction potential based on 10 risk factors predictive of youth alcohol and drug-related problems that assists examiners in more accurate treatment planning when self-report information is…

  4. 13 CFR 120.423 - Which 7(a) loans may a Lender securitize?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Lender may only securitize 7(a) loans that will be fully disbursed within 90 days of the securitization's closing date. If the amount of a fully disbursed loan increases after a securitization settles, the Lender...

  5. Interbank lending, network structure and default risk contagion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Minghui; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

    2018-03-01

    This paper studies the default risk contagion in banking systems based on a dynamic network model with two different kinds of lenders' selecting mechanisms, namely, endogenous selecting (ES) and random selecting (RS). From sensitivity analysis, we find that higher risk premium, lower initial proportion of net assets, higher liquid assets threshold, larger size of liquidity shocks, higher proportion of the initial investments and higher Central Bank interest rates all lead to severer default risk contagion. Moreover, the autocorrelation of deposits and lenders' selecting probability have non-monotonic effects on the default risk contagion, and the effects differ under two mechanisms. Generally, the default risk contagion is much severer under RS mechanism than that of ES, because the multi-money-center structure generated by ES mechanism enables borrowers to borrow from more liquid banks with lower interest rates.

  6. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  7. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor : 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  8. Interest rate risk analysis with multifactor model

    OpenAIRE

    Campos, Natalia; Jareño Cebrián, Francisco; Tolentino García-Abadillo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    This study focuses on analyzing the influence of changes in 10-year nominal interest rates on US sector returns, distinguishing two different periods, before and after the subprime crisis. We run the three-factor model of Fama and French, which incorporates as explanatory factors the nominal interest rate and the size and growth opportunities factors. The US sensitivity varies across sectors and periods, but we evidence a similar response to the previous literature. Finally, the “size” ...

  9. 24 CFR 1000.404 - What lenders are eligible for participation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Activities § 1000.404 What lenders are eligible for participation? Eligible lenders are those approved under... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What lenders are eligible for participation? 1000.404 Section 1000.404 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban...

  10. 75 FR 12251 - Notice of Proposed Information Collection for Public Comment; FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-15

    ... Lenders. OMB Control Number, if applicable: 2502-0005. Description of the need for the information and proposed use: The information is used by FHA to verify that lenders meet all approval, renewal, update and... Information Collection for Public Comment; FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal, Periodic Updates and...

  11. 78 FR 17937 - Notice of Proposed Information Collection for Public Comment; FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-25

    ... Lenders. OMB Control Number, if applicable: 2502-0005. Description of the need for the information and proposed use: The information is used by FHA to verify that lenders meet all approval, renewal, update and... Information Collection for Public Comment; FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal, Periodic Updates and...

  12. 78 FR 36560 - 30-Day Notice of Proposed Information Collection: FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal, Periodic...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-18

    ... 92001-C Non-compliances on Title I Lenders Description of the need for the information and proposed use... Information Collection: FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal, Periodic Updates and Noncompliance Reporting by FHA Approved Lenders AGENCY: Office of the Chief Information Officer, HUD. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY...

  13. 77 FR 63323 - Notice of Proposed Information Collection for Public Comment; FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-16

    ... Lenders OMB Control Number, if applicable: 2502-0005. Description of the need for the information and proposed use: The information is used by FHA to verify that lenders meet all approval, renewal, update and... Information Collection for Public Comment; FHA Lender Approval, Annual Renewal, Periodic Updates and...

  14. 76 FR 8847 - Proposed Information Collection (Lenders Staff Appraisal Reviewer (SAR) Application) Activity...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-15

    ... AFFAIRS Proposed Information Collection (Lenders Staff Appraisal Reviewer (SAR) Application) Activity... solicits comments information needed to certify a lender's nominee as a VA Staff Appraisal Reviewer. DATES...: Lenders Staff Appraisal Reviewer (SAR) Application, VA Form 26-0785. OMB Control Number: 2900-0658. Type...

  15. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a good understanding of duration gap model used for managing interest rate risk. The article starts with a overview of interest rate risk and explain how this type of risk should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a

  16. Resting heart rate and cardiovascular events: risk factor or risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    syndrome. In 139 194 patients with a non-ST-segment elevated acute coronary syndrome (NONSTEMI), a clear. J-shaped correlation was found between resting heart and all-cause mortality.5 The lowest mortality rate were in patients with resting heart rates between 50 and 70 beats per minute, but mortality doubled when ...

  17. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.

  18. Self-rated health and cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelsgaard, Ida Kristiane; Olesen, Anne Marie; Simonsen, Mette Kildevæld

    2016-01-01

    proportional hazards model with adjustment for age, smoking, alcohol, marital status, physical activity, body mass index and estrogen replacement therapy. RESULTS: No significant association was found between SRH and overall cancer incidence in the age-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model (1.04; 95% CI 0.......93-1.16), even after adjustment for potential confounding factors (HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.96-1.21). Likewise, there was no significant association between SRH and breast cancer (HR 1.09; 95% CI 0.89-1.33), lung cancer (HR 1.03; 95% CI 0.71-1.49) or colon cancer (HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.75-1.54). CONCLUSION: SRH...... is not significantly associated with the incidence of all cancers or breast, lung or colon cancer among Danish female nurses. Women who reported a decrease in SRH between 1993 and 1999 had the same risk for cancer as those who reported unchanged or improved SRH....

  19. 7 CFR 3565.304 - Lender loan processing responsibilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... application at the feasibility stage or when they request a conditional commitment. (b) Project servicing, management and disposition. Unless otherwise permitted by the Agency, the originating lender must perform all loan functions during the period of the guarantee. These functions include servicing, asset management...

  20. 7 CFR 1779.29 - Fees and charges by lender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fees and charges by lender. 1779.29 Section 1779.29 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS GUARANTEED LOANS § 1779.29 Fees and charges by...

  1. Risks and rewards of variable-rate debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordahl, Eric A

    2012-05-01

    Hospital and health system finance leaders should position their organizations to participate in the variable-rate market. To this end, one important step is to establish the right baseline variable-rate exposure target for the organization based on its credit and risk profile. Leaders also should be thoroughly familiar with the available products and understand the circumstances (pricing, terms, and embedded risk) under which the organization would be willing to deploy them within the overall capital structure.

  2. College Students' Perceived Disease Risk versus Actual Prevalence Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew Lee; Dickerson, Justin B.; Sosa, Erica T.; McKyer, E. Lisako J.; Ory, Marcia G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To compare college students' perceived disease risk with disease prevalence rates. Methods: Data were analyzed from 625 college students collected with an Internet-based survey. Paired t-tests were used to separately compare participants' perceived 10-year and lifetime disease risk for 4 diseases: heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and…

  3. Allostatic load and heart rate variability as health risk indicators ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Uncertainty often exists about the comparability of results obtained by different health risk indicator systems. Objectives: To compare two health risk indicator systems, i.e, allostatic load and heart rate variability (HRV). Additionally, to investigate the feasibility of inclusion of HRV indicators into allostatic load ...

  4. Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Fernando Alvarez; Andrew Atkeson; Patrick J. Kehoe

    2009-01-01

    Under mild assumptions, the data indicate that fluctuations in nominal interest rate differentials across currencies are primarily fluctuations in time-varying risk. This finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks. If most fluctuations in interest differentials are thought to be driven by monetary policy, then the data call for a theory which explains how changes in monetary policy change risk. Here, we propose such a theory based on a general...

  5. Modeling the exchange rate using price levels and country risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gábor Regős

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds two factor discrete time models in order to investigate the effect of sovereign risk on the nominal exchange rates in a Markov switching framework. The empirical section of the paper uses seven currencies from Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Japan, Korea, and Mexico. To measure the sovereign risk, we use the credit rating agencies’ ratings classes as proxy variable. In the empirical part, four different versions of the model are calibrated and their in-sample and out-of-sample data will be analyzed leading to the conclusion that none of the four versions dominates the others. As an additional result, it is revealed that risk has significant effect on the nominal exchange rates.

  6. Failure rate data for fusion safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Fusion Safety Program (FSP) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) conducts safety research in materials, chemical reactions, safety analysis, risk assessment, and in component research and development to support existing magnetic fusion experiments and also to promote safety in the design of future experiments. One of the areas of safety research is applying probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to fusion experiments. To apply PRA, we need a fusion-relevant radiological dose code and a component failure rate data base. This paper describes the FSP effort to develop a failure rate data base for fusion-specific components

  7. Total Return Swap Valuation with Counterparty Risk and Interest Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anjiao Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the pricing of total return swap (TRS under the contagion models with counterparty risk and the interest rate risk. We assume that interest rate follows Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM forward interest rate model and obtain the Libor market interest rate. The cases where default is related to the interest rate and independent of interest rate are considered. Using the methods of change of measure and the “total hazard construction,” the joint default probabilities are obtained. Furthermore, we obtain the closed-form formulas of TRS under different contagion models, respectively.

  8. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate and Risk of Survival in Acute ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To assess the risk of survival in acute stroke using the MDRD equation derived estimated glomerular filtration rate. Design: A prospective observational cross-sectional study. Setting: Medical wards of a tertiary care hospital. Subjects: Eighty three acute stroke patients had GFR calculated within 48 hours of ...

  9. 77 FR 57990 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 741 RIN 3133-AD66 Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program Correction In rule document 2012-02091, appearing on pages 55155-5167 in the issue of Thursday, February 2, 2012, make the...

  10. Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking under Low Interest Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.; Vervliet, Tobias M.

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the unusually low interest rate environment on the soundness of the US banking sector in terms of profitability and risk-taking. Using both dynamic and static modeling approaches and various estimation techniques, we find that the low interest

  11. 76 FR 9870 - Financial Management Policies-Interest Rate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-22

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Financial Management Policies--Interest... concerning the following information collection. Title of Proposal: Financial Management Policies--Interest... managing their exposure to interest rate risk. To comply with this reporting requirement, institutions need...

  12. Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonam, D.; Lukkezen, J.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By

  13. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  14. 24 CFR 1005.104 - What lenders are eligible for participation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What lenders are eligible for participation? 1005.104 Section 1005.104 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban... URBAN DEVELOPMENT LOAN GUARANTEES FOR INDIAN HOUSING § 1005.104 What lenders are eligible for...

  15. 75 FR 80066 - Quality Control Requirements for Direct Endorsement Lenders; Notice of Proposed Information...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-21

    ... for Direct Endorsement Lenders; Notice of Proposed Information Collection: Comment Request AGENCY... information: Title of Proposal: Quality Control Requirements for Direct Endorsement Lenders. OMB Control Number, if applicable: 2502--NEW. Description of the need for the information and proposed use: As of...

  16. 7 CFR 1980.309 - Lender participation in guaranteed RH loans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Housing Mortgage Insurance or as an issuer of Ginnie Mae mortgage backed securities; (3) Any Lender... one to four family mortgage loans; (6) An FCS institution with direct lending authority; and (7) Any... Lender's internal loan criteria for issues of credit history and repayment ability and a copy of the...

  17. 76 FR 71329 - Request for Information Regarding Private Education Loans and Private Educational Lenders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-17

    ... Regarding Private Education Loans and Private Educational Lenders AGENCY: Bureau of Consumer Financial... Justice and the Federal Trade Commission, to prepare a Report on Private Education Loans and Private Education Lenders. The Bureau seeks information on private education loans and related consumer financial...

  18. 34 CFR 601.40 - Disclosure and reporting requirements for lenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... disclosures required in § 682.205(a) and (b). (2) A lender must, for each of its private education loans... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Disclosure and reporting requirements for lenders. 601.40 Section 601.40 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued...

  19. 76 FR 79379 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-21

    ..., 225, et al. Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and... RIN 3064-AD70 Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and... credit ratings to determine the specific risk add-on for a debt position that is a covered position under...

  20. Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Brazilian Interest Rate Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Renato Haas Ornelas

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Building Risk-Neutral Density (RND from options data is one useful way for extracting market expectations about a financial variable. For a sample of IDI (Brazilian Interbank Deposit Rate Index options from 1998 to 2009, this paper estimates the option-implied Risk-Neutral Densities for the Brazilian short rate using three methods: Shimko, Mixture of Two Log-Normals and Generalized Beta of Second Kind. Our in-sample goodness-of-fit evaluation shows that the Mixture of Log-Normals method provides better fitting to option’s data than the other two methods. The shape of log-normal distributions seems to fit well to the mean-reversal dynamics of Brazilian interest rates. We have also calculated the RND implied Skewness, showing how it could have provided market early-warning signals of the monetary policy outcomes in 2002 and 2003. Overall, Risk-Neutral Densities implied on IDI options showed to be a useful tool for extracting market expectations about future outcomes of the monetary policy.

  1. Risk profiles of pork and poultry meat and risk ratings of various pathogen/product combinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mataragas, M; Skandamis, P N; Drosinos, E H

    2008-08-15

    , served undercooked and receiving improper cooling or reheating (high risk population), and 3) all people consuming undercooked meals cross-contaminated with Campylobacter spp. (e.g. from raw poultry and raw poultry-meat products) and HEV (e.g. from raw pork and raw pork-meat products). Salmonellae gave high risk scores in all food categories (except preserved meat products) for high risk population. Preserved meats (mainly pork) such as dry fermented sausages gave low risk scores. Only Salmonella spp., L. monocytogenes and E. coli EHEC gave moderate risk ratings in case of ingredients likely to be contaminated at an early stage of processing (e.g. animal at slaughter) and inadequate fermentation process. These results may constitute a source of information for hazard assessment during application of a Food Safety Management System.

  2. Lender of last resort in a monetary union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gylfi Magnússon

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The theory of optimal currency areas was developed during the 1960’s and 1970’s. At that time the international financial system was very different from the current system, banking systems were smaller and the flow of funds across borders limited. Developments in the Eurozone in recent years have shown that when the theory was developed and the decision made to adopt the euro some of the drawbacks of a common currency were not foreseen and important issues were not addressed. This includes the role of a common central bank as a lender of last resort to national governments. In addition, few foresaw how many closely linked financial systems could create problems that are unsolvable without the cooperation of several governments. An adequate framework for dealing with such problems was thus not put in place. The possibility that macro-economic shocks could originate in the financial system was mainly ignored. During the current crisis it has been necessary to address all these issues. It took four years to find a politically viable solution. This involves the redefinition of the role of the European Central Bank, making it a lender of last resort to national governments. This policy change buys time to deal with many fundamental imbalances within the Eurozone but does not in and of itself solve the underlying problems. The delay in implementing this policy was however very costly.

  3. Basal metabolic rate and risk-taking behaviour in birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, A P

    2009-12-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) constitutes the minimal metabolic rate in the zone of thermo-neutrality, where heat production is not elevated for temperature regulation. BMR thus constitutes the minimum metabolic rate that is required for maintenance. Interspecific variation in BMR in birds is correlated with food habits, climate, habitat, flight activity, torpor, altitude, and migration, although the selective forces involved in the evolution of these presumed adaptations are not always obvious. I suggest that BMR constitutes the minimum level required for maintenance, and that variation in this minimum level reflects the fitness costs and benefits in terms of ability to respond to selective agents like predators, implying that an elevated level of BMR is a cost of wariness towards predators. This hypothesis predicts a positive relationship between BMR and measures of risk taking such as flight initiation distance (FID) of individuals approached by a potential predator. Consistent with this suggestion, I show in a comparative analysis of 76 bird species that species with higher BMR for their body mass have longer FID when approached by a potential predator. This effect was independent of potentially confounding variables and similarity among species due to common phylogenetic descent. These results imply that BMR is positively related to risk-taking behaviour, and that predation constitutes a neglected factor in the evolution of BMR.

  4. Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization under Stochastic Interest Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Engler

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a portfolio optimization problem under the threat of a market crash, where the interest rate of the bond is modeled as a Vasicek process, which is correlated with the stock price process. We adopt a non-probabilistic worst-case approach for the height and time of the market crash. On a given time horizon [0; T], we then maximize the investor’s expected utility of terminal wealth in the worst-case crash scenario. Our main result is an explicit characterization of the worst-case optimal portfolio strategy for the class of HARA (hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions.

  5. Risks to health from radiation at low dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gentner, N.E.; Osborne, R.V.

    1997-01-01

    Our focus is on whether, using a balance-of-evidence approach, it is possible to say that at a low enough dose, or at a sufficiently low dose rate, radiation risk reduces to zero in a population. We conclude that insufficient evidence exists at present to support such a conclusion. In part this reflects statistical limitations at low doses, and in part (although mechanisms unquestionably exist to protect us against much of the damage induced by ionizing radiation) the biological heterogeneity of human populations, which means these mechanisms do not act in all members of the population at all times. If it is going to be possible to demonstrate that low doses are less dangerous than we presently assume, the evidence, paradoxically, will likely come from studies of higher dose and dose rate scenarios than are encountered occupationally. (author)

  6. Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Křivánková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

  7. Hemodialysis catheter-related infection: rates, risk factors and pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahli, Farida; Feidjel, Razika; Laalaoui, Rima

    The main complication of central venous catheter (CVC) in hemodialysis is infection. Identifying CVC related infection (CVC-RI) risk factors and causative micro-organisms is important for setting prevention policies. There were no data regarding CVC-RI in hemodialysis in Algeria. To determine rates of CVC-RI in hemodialysis in Setif university hospital, risk factors and causative microorganisms, we conducted a prospective study from November 2014 to May 2015 involving patients with CVC in hemodialysis. Micro-organisms isolated from semi quantitative culture of CVC and blood culture were identified and tested for antibiotic susceptibility using the automated MicroScan system (DADE Behring, Sacramento, CA, USA). Chi-square test was performed to compare demographic and clinical variables (age, sex, comorbidities, duration of CVC, insertion site) in the groups of patients with and without CVC-RI. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. All analyses were performed using SPSS V17 for Windows statistical package (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). 94 patients and 152 CVC procedures were analyzed. 34 CVC-RI were documented with an incidence of 16.6 per 1000 CVC-days. Incidence of CVC related bloodstream infection (CVC-RBI) was 10.8 per 1000 CVC-days. Independent risk factors associated with CVC-RI were diabetes (P=0.01) and duration of catheterization (P= 0.01). Causative micro-organisms were: Klebsiella pneumoniae 26.5%, coagulase-negative staphylococci 23.5% and Staphylococcus aureus 23.5%. Micro-organisms were multidrug-resistant (MDR). Mortality was statistically associated to inadequate antibiotic therapy. The duration of CVC should be reduced by creation of fistulas. More compliance to hygiene measure is needed for decreasing CVC-RI and resistance rate. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Interest rate risk measurement in Brazilian sovereign markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de Almeida

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fixed income emerging markets are an interesting investment alternative. Measuring market risks is mandatory in order to avoid unexpected huge losses. The most used market risk measure is the Value at Risk, based on the profit-loss probability distribution of the portfolio under consideration. Estimating this probability distribution requires the prior estimation of the probability distribution of term structures of interest rates. An interesting possibility is to estimate term structures using a decomposition of the spread function into a linear combination of Legendre polynomials. Numerical examples from the Brazilian sovereign fixed income international market illustrate the practical use of the methodology.Os mercados emergentes de renda fixa são alternativas interessantes para investimentos. Devido ao elevado nível de incerteza existente em tais mercados, a mensuração dos riscos de mercado de uma carteira de investimentos é fundamental para que se evite um nível elevado de perdas. Uma das medidas de risco de mercado mais utilizadas é o Value at Risk, baseado na distribuição de probabilidades de perdas-ganhos da carteira sob análise. A estimação desta distribuição requer, no entanto, a estimação prévia da distribuição de pro-babilidades das variações da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros. Uma possibilidade interessante para a estimação de tal distribuição é efetuar uma decomposição da função de spread da estrutura a termo em uma combinação linear de Polinômios de Legendre. Exemplos numéricos do mercado internacional de títulos soberanos brasileiros são apresentados para ilustrar o uso prático desta nova metodologia.

  9. 76 FR 8846 - Proposed Information Collection (VBA Loan Guaranty Service Lender Satisfaction Survey) Activity...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-15

    ... AFFAIRS Proposed Information Collection (VBA Loan Guaranty Service Lender Satisfaction Survey) Activity.... SUMMARY: The Veterans Benefits Administration (VBA), Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), is announcing an... the following collection of information, VBA invites comments on: (1) Whether the proposed collection...

  10. Adolescent suicide in Australia: rates, risk and resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Patricia M

    2013-07-01

    Adolescent suicide rates in Australia have fallen significantly during recent years. The incidence, however, clearly remains a serious concern for young people, parents, professionals and policy makers. Some groups of Australian youth appear to be at heightened risk. Adolescents within the welfare system, indigenous, rural and refugee youth, along with same sex attracted young people often need very careful monitoring and support. Young men continue to take their lives more frequently than young women. Prevention programmes in Australia aim to develop resilience in young people, families and communities that can serve as protection against self harm and suicide. The improvement of mental health literacy, a fostering of adolescent self-efficacy and better access to early intervention strategies are currently privileged in national and state policies related to young people in Australia. More work is needed, however, to achieve a well integrated mental health framework capable of effectively addressing adolescent suicide prevention into the twenty-first century.

  11. 75 FR 20717 - Federal Housing Administration: Continuation of FHA Reform; Strengthening Risk Management Through...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-20

    ... mortgage lenders. These mortgages present higher risk to the multifamily mortgagees, and consequently to... Administration: Continuation of FHA Reform; Strengthening Risk Management Through Responsible FHA-Approved Lenders; Final Rule #0;#0;Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 75 / Tuesday, April 20, 2010 / Rules and...

  12. Alarming of exchange rate crisis: A risk management approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, with increasing volatility of foreign exchange rate, risk management becomes more and more important not only for multinational companies and individuals but also for central governments. This paper attempts to build an econometrics model so as to forecast and manage risks in foreign exchange market, especially during the eve of turbulent periods. By following McNeil and Frey’s (2000 two stage approach called conditional EVT to estimate dynamic VaR commonly used in stock and insurance markets, we extend it by applying a more general asymmetric ARMA-GARCH model to analyze daily foreign exchange dollar-denominated trading data from four countries of different development levels across Asia and Europe for a period of more than 10 years from January 03, 2005 to May 29, 2015, which is certainly representative of global markets. Conventionally, different kinds of backtesting methods are implemented ultimately to evaluate how well the model behaves. Inspiringly, test results show that by taking several specific characteristics (including fat-tails, asymmetry and long-range dependence of the foreign exchange market return data into consideration, the violation ratio of out-of-sample data can be forecasted very well for both fixed and flexible foreign exchange regimes. Moreover, all of the violations are evenly distributed along the whole period which indicates another favorable property of our model. Meanwhile, we find evidence of asymmetry volatility in all of the studied foreign exchange markets even though the magnitudes of the most of them are weak

  13. Including risk in the balanced scorecard: Adoption rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This finding is interesting because it would indicate that the previously reported and conceptualised problem of complexity does not seem to have such a great impact as previously thought. Key words: balanced scorecard, risk management, enterprise risk management, performance management, risk scorecard, risk ...

  14. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  15. Improved risk adjustment for comparison of surgical site infection rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geubbels, Eveline L. P. E.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Vandenbroucke-Grauls, Christina M. J. E.; Wille, Jan C.; de Boer, Annette S.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop prognostic models for improved risk adjustment in surgical site infection surveillance for 5 surgical procedures and to compare these models with the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance system (NNIS) risk index. DESIGN: In a multicenter cohort study, prospective

  16. 12 CFR 615.5180 - Interest rate risk management by banks-general.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ....5180 Interest rate risk management by banks—general. The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank, bank for cooperatives, and agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by banks-general...

  17. 13 CFR 120.630 - Qualifications to be a Pool Assembler.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... assembler that is an SBA Lender, that the SBA Lender has satisfactory SBA performance, as determined by SBA in its discretion. The Lender's Risk Rating, among other factors, will be considered in determining...

  18. 7 CFR 3575.33 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 3575.33 Section 3575.33 Agriculture... GENERAL Community Programs Guaranteed Loans § 3575.33 Interest rates. (a) General. Rates will be negotiated between the lender and the borrower. They may be either fixed or variable rates. Interest rates...

  19. 7 CFR 4279.125 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 4279.125 Section 4279.125 Agriculture... Interest rates. The interest rate for the guaranteed loan will be negotiated between the lender and the applicant and may be either fixed or variable as long as it is a legal rate. Interest rates will not be more...

  20. 7 CFR 1980.320 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Interest rate. 1980.320 Section 1980.320 Agriculture... REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) GENERAL Rural Housing Loans § 1980.320 Interest rate. The interest rate must not... interest rate over the life of the loan. The rate shall be agreed upon by the borrower and the Lender and...

  1. How and why do small firms manage interest rate risk? Evidence from commercial loans

    OpenAIRE

    James Vickery

    2005-01-01

    Although small firms are most sensitive to interest rate and other shocks, empirical work on corporate risk management has focused instead on large public companies. This paper studies fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans to see how small firms manage their exposure to interest rate risk. The cross-sectional findings are as follows: credit-constrained firms consistently favor fixed-rate loans, minimizing their exposure to rising interest rates; firms adjust their exposure depending on how int...

  2. 75 FR 23582 - Federal Housing Administration: Continuation of FHA Reform-Strengthening Risk Management Through...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-04

    ...-AI81 Federal Housing Administration: Continuation of FHA Reform-- Strengthening Risk Management Through Responsible FHA-Approved Lenders; Correction AGENCY: Office of General Counsel, HUD. ACTION: Final rule... (75 FR 20718). This final rule adopted changes pertaining to the approval of mortgage lenders by the...

  3. 12 CFR 652.15 - Interest rate risk management and requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS Investment Management § 652.15 Interest rate risk... interest rate risk management policy must, at a minimum: (1) Address the purpose and objectives of interest... desired risk management objectives; (5) Document the objectives that Farmer Mac is attempting to achieve...

  4. 77 FR 5416 - Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-03

    ... counterparty risk besides posting collateral? Are there additional or alternate collateralization conditions... Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities AGENCY: National Credit Union Administration. ACTION... rate risk (IRR).\\1\\ This ANPR follows an earlier Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR I) on...

  5. Modelling second malignancy risks from low dose rate and high dose rate brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Louise; Mason, Joshua; Henry, Ann M; Hoskin, Peter; Siebert, Frank-Andre; Venselaar, Jack; Bownes, Peter

    2016-08-01

    To estimate the risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancers following low dose rate (LDR) and high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer and compare to external beam radiotherapy techniques. LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy plans were generated for three prostate CT datasets. Second cancer risks were assessed using Schneider's concept of organ equivalent dose. LDR risks were assessed according to a mechanistic model and a bell-shaped model. HDR risks were assessed according to a bell-shaped model. Relative risks and excess absolute risks were estimated and compared to external beam techniques. Excess absolute risks of second rectal or bladder cancer were low for both LDR (irrespective of the model used for calculation) and HDR techniques. Average excess absolute risks of rectal cancer for LDR brachytherapy according to the mechanistic model were 0.71 per 10,000 person-years (PY) and 0.84 per 10,000 PY respectively, and according to the bell-shaped model, were 0.47 and 0.78 per 10,000 PY respectively. For HDR, the average excess absolute risks for second rectal and bladder cancers were 0.74 and 1.62 per 10,000 PY respectively. The absolute differences between techniques were very low and clinically irrelevant. Compared to external beam prostate radiotherapy techniques, LDR and HDR brachytherapy resulted in the lowest risks of second rectal and bladder cancer. This study shows both LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy result in low estimated risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancer. LDR resulted in lower bladder cancer risks than HDR, and lower or similar risks of rectal cancer. In absolute terms these differences between techniques were very small. Compared to external beam techniques, second rectal and bladder cancer risks were lowest for brachytherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. 12 CFR 614.4155 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 614.4155 Section 614.4155 Banks... Policies for Banks and Associations § 614.4155 Interest rates. Loans made by each bank and direct lender association shall bear interest at a rate or rates as may be determined by the institution board. The board...

  7. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ 2 ) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue

  8. 76 FR 23646 - Financial Management Policies-Interest Rate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Financial Management Policies--Interest... invite comments on the following information collection. Title of Proposal: Financial Management Policies... risk procedures, 12 CFR 563.176. The purpose of the regulation is to ensure that institutions are...

  9. Learning rate and temperament in a high predation risk environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePasquale, C; Wagner, T; Archard, G A; Ferguson, B; Braithwaite, V A

    2014-11-01

    Living in challenging environments can influence the behavior of animals in a number of ways. For instance, populations of prey fish that experience frequent, nonlethal interactions with predators have a high proportion of individuals that express greater reaction to risk and increased activity and exploration-collectively known as temperament traits. Temperament traits are often correlated, such that individuals that are risk-prone also tend to be active and explore more. Spatial learning, which requires the integration of many sensory cues, has also been shown to vary in fish exposed to different levels of predation threat. Fish from areas of low predation risk learn to solve spatial tasks faster than fish from high predation areas. However, it is not yet known whether simpler forms of learning, such as learning associations between two events, are similarly influenced. Simple forms of associative learning are likely to be affected by temperament because a willingness to approach and explore novel situations could provide animals with a learning advantage. However, it is possible that routine-forming and inflexible traits associated with risk-prone and increased exploratory behavior may act in the opposite way and make risk-prone individuals poorer at learning associations. To investigate this, we measured temperament in Panamanian bishop fish (Brachyrhaphis episcopi) sampled from a site known to contain many predators. The B. episcopi were then tested with an associative learning task. Within this population, fish that explored more were faster at learning a cue that predicted access to food, indicating a link between temperament and basic learning abilities.

  10. Learning rate and temperament in a high predation risk environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePasquale, C.; Wagner, Tyler; Archard, G.A.; Ferguson, B.; Braithwaite, V.A.

    2014-01-01

    Living in challenging environments can influence the behavior of animals in a number of ways. For instance, populations of prey fish that experience frequent, nonlethal interactions with predators have a high proportion of individuals that express greater reaction to risk and increased activity and exploration—collectively known as temperament traits. Temperament traits are often correlated, such that individuals that are risk-prone also tend to be active and explore more. Spatial learning, which requires the integration of many sensory cues, has also been shown to vary in fish exposed to different levels of predation threat. Fish from areas of low predation risk learn to solve spatial tasks faster than fish from high predation areas. However, it is not yet known whether simpler forms of learning, such as learning associations between two events, are similarly influenced. Simple forms of associative learning are likely to be affected by temperament because a willingness to approach and explore novel situations could provide animals with a learning advantage. However, it is possible that routine-forming and inflexible traits associated with risk-prone and increased exploratory behavior may act in the opposite way and make risk-prone individuals poorer at learning associations. To investigate this, we measured temperament in Panamanian bishop fish (Brachyrhaphis episcopi) sampled from a site known to contain many predators. The B. episcopi were then tested with an associative learning task. Within this population, fish that explored more were faster at learning a cue that predicted access to food, indicating a link between temperament and basic learning abilities.

  11. Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitris Gavalas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in alternative business cycle states. An innovative empirical methodology applies to bank internal rating data, under different economic scenarios and investigates the implications of credit risk quality shifts for risk rating transition matrices. The empirical findings are useful and critical for banks to align to Basel guidelines in relation to core capital requirements and risk-weighted assets in the underlying loan portfolio.

  12. How to Design Rating Schemes of Risk Matrices: A Sequential Updating Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianping; Bao, Chunbing; Wu, Dengsheng

    2018-01-01

    Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several current rules, we propose a new approach, namely, the sequential updating approach (SUA), to design the rating scheme of a risk matrix in a reliable way. In this article, we propose three principles and a rating algorithm based on these principles. The three principles, namely, adjusted weak consistency, consistent internality, and continuous screening, characterize a good rating scheme. The resulting rating scheme has been proven to be unique. A global rating algorithm is then proposed to create the design that satisfies the three principles. We then explore the performance of the SUA. An illustrative application is first given to explain the feasibility of our approach. The sensitivity analysis shows that our method captures a resolution-reliability tradeoff for decisionmakers in choosing an appropriate rating scheme for a risk matrix. Finally, we compare the designs based on the SUA and Cox's axioms, highlighting the advantages of the SUA. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Taming agricultural risks

    OpenAIRE

    Oppedahl, David B.

    2014-01-01

    On November 19, 2013, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago held a conference to explore the key risks faced by agricultural producers and lenders, as well as the risk-management tools available to them, in today’s volatile environment.

  14. 77 FR 5155 - Interest Rate Risk Policy and Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-02

    ... of a credit union's assets and liabilities because the present value of future cash flows and, in some cases, the cash flows themselves may change when interest rates change. IRR takes several forms... union's assets and liabilities, because the present value of future cash flows and, in some cases, the...

  15. Surgical Site Infection Rate and Risk Factors among Obstetric Cases ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BACKGROUND: Surgical Site infections are the second most frequently reported infections of all nosocomial infections among hospital patients. Among surgical patients in obstetrics, Surgical Site Infections were the most common nosocomial infections and the rate is higher in sub-Saharan Africa. There has not been a ...

  16. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in high rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of high rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  17. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in pulsed rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of pulsed rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  18. 24 CFR 1007.70 - Disqualification of lenders and civil money penalties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... civil money penalties. 1007.70 Section 1007.70 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to....70 Disqualification of lenders and civil money penalties. (a) In general—(1) Grounds for action. HUD... or holder that are guaranteed under this part. (b) Civil money penalties for intentional violations...

  19. 76 FR 27382 - Agency Information Collection Activity (VBA Loan Guaranty Service Lender Satisfaction Survey...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-11

    ... AFFAIRS Agency Information Collection Activity (VBA Loan Guaranty Service Lender Satisfaction Survey... notice announces that the Veterans Benefits Administration (VBA), Department of Veterans Affairs, will... information, VBA invites comments on: (1) Whether the proposed collection of information is necessary for the...

  20. 25 CFR 103.17 - Must the lender follow any special procedures to close the loan?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... searches for each asset to be used as loan collateral. (c) At or prior to closing, the lender must obtain recent appraisals for all real property and improvements to be used as collateral for the loan, to the... of a leasehold interest in tribal trust property); (4) Guarantees (other than from BIA); (5...

  1. 24 CFR 203.492 - Assignments, pledges and transfers by approved lender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Assignments, pledges and transfers... HOUSING ACT AND OTHER AUTHORITIES SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE INSURANCE Contract Rights and Obligations Rehabilitation Loans § 203.492 Assignments, pledges and transfers by approved lender. (a) An assignment, pledge...

  2. 76 FR 52271 - Institutions and Lender Requirements Relating to Education Loans, Student Assistance General...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-22

    ... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 34 CFR Part 668 [Docket ID ED-2009-OPE-0003] RIN 1840-AC95 Institutions and Lender Requirements Relating to Education Loans, Student Assistance General Provisions, Federal Perkins Loan Program, Federal Family Education Loan Program, and William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan...

  3. 75 FR 80516 - Notice of Submission of Proposed Information Collection to OMB; Lender Qualifications for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-22

    ... Proposed Information Collection to OMB; Lender Qualifications for Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP) AGENCY: Office of the Chief Information Officer, HUD. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The proposed information... Number: 2502-0541. Form Numbers: None. Description of the Need for the Information and Its Proposed Use...

  4. 42 CFR 60.53 - Notification to lender or holder of change in enrollment status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... SERVICES GRANTS HEALTH EDUCATION ASSISTANCE LOAN PROGRAM The School § 60.53 Notification to lender or holder of change in enrollment status. Each school must notify the holder of a HEAL loan of any change in... failure to enroll as scheduled for any academic period as a full-time student, the student's latest known...

  5. 7 CFR 1779.65 - Lender's sale or assignment of the guaranteed portion of loan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Lender's sale or assignment of the guaranteed portion of loan. 1779.65 Section 1779.65 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS...

  6. 7 CFR 1779.64 - Issuance of Lender's Agreement, Loan Note Guarantee, and Assignment Guarantee Agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Issuance of Lender's Agreement, Loan Note Guarantee, and Assignment Guarantee Agreement. 1779.64 Section 1779.64 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND...

  7. Crisis management and lender of last resort in the European banking market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boot, A.W.A.; Marinč, M.

    2008-01-01

    We discuss some key issues related to supervisory arrangements in the Euro-system countries. In particular, we address the lender of last resort (LOLR) structure and the related crisis management framework. We focus on the responsibilities and powers of individual countries (and national central

  8. Crisis management and lender of last resort in the European banking market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boot, A.W.A.; Marinč, M.; Alessandrini, P.; Fratianni, M.; Zazzaro, A.

    2009-01-01

    We discuss some key issues related to supervisory arrangements in the Euro-system countries. In particular, we address the lender of last resort (LOLR) structure and the related crisis management framework. We focus on the responsibilities and powers of individual countries (and national central

  9. 77 FR 77050 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Part 601 Preferred Lender Arrangements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-31

    ... regulations governing private education loans offered at covered institutions by lenders also participating in... obtaining a private education loan. These regulations require covered institutions to provide a variety of... submitting the Private Education Loan Applicant Self-Certification form for OMB's approval. While information...

  10. 25 CFR 103.30 - What standard of care must a lender meet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... in which the borrower's business is located, and in accordance with this part. If the lender fails to... insurance approval, or if not so specified, then in descending order of importance: (1) BIA's written loan... other security interests in accordance with State and local law, including the laws of any tribe that...

  11. Lending policies of informal, formal and semiformal lenders - Evidence from Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pham, Thi Thu Tra; Lensink, Robert

    2007-01-01

    This paper compares lending policies of formal, informal and semiformal lenders with respect to household lending in Vietnam. The analysis suggests that the probability of using formal or semiformal credit increases if borrowers provide collateral, a guarantor and/or borrow for business-related

  12. Lending Policies of Informal, Formal, and Semi-formal Lenders: Evidence from Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lensink, B.W.; Pham, T.T.T.

    2007-01-01

    This paper compares lending policies of formal, informal and semiformal lenders with respect to household lending in Vietnam. The analysis suggests that the probability of using formal or semiformal credit increases if borrowers provide collateral, a guarantor and/or borrow for business-related

  13. 38 CFR 36.4312 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interest rates. 36.4312... GUARANTY Guaranty or Insurance of Loans to Veterans With Electronic Reporting § 36.4312 Interest rates. (a... such loans either bear interest at a rate that is agreed upon by the veteran and the lender, or bear...

  14. Vaccination rates among the general adult population and high-risk groups in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathy Annunziata

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In order to adequately assess the effectiveness of vaccination in helping to control vaccine-preventable infectious disease, it is important to identify the adherence and uptake of risk-based recommendations. METHODS: The current project includes data from five consecutive datasets of the National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS: 2007 through 2011. The NHWS is an annual, Internet-based health questionnaire, administered to a nationwide sample of adults (aged 18 or older which included items on vaccination history as well as high-risk group status. Vaccination rates and characteristics of vaccinees were reported descriptively. Logistic regressions were conducted to predict vaccination behavior from sociodemographics and risk-related variables. RESULTS: The influenza vaccination rate for all adults 18 years and older has increased significantly from 28.0% to 36.2% from 2007 to 2011 (ps<.05. Compared with those not at high risk (25.1%, all high-risk groups were vaccinated at a higher rate, from 36.8% (pregnant women to 69.7% (those with renal/kidney disease; however, considerable variability among high-risk groups was observed. Vaccination rates among high-risk groups for other vaccines varied considerably though all were below 50%, with the exception of immunocompromised respondents (57.5% for the hepatitis B vaccine and 52.5% for the pneumococcal vaccine and the elderly (50.4% for the pneumococcal. Multiple risk factors were associated with increased rate of vaccination for most vaccines. Significant racial/ethnic differences with influenza, hepatitis, and herpes zoster vaccination rates were also observed (ps<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of influenza vaccination have increased over time. Rates varied by high-risk status, demographics, and vaccine. There was a pattern of modest vaccination rate increases for individuals with multiple risk factors. However, there were relatively low rates of vaccination for most risk-based recommendations

  15. Study the rate of fertility and risk factors of schizophrenia in Najaf, Iraq

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is designed to investigate the main risk factors, which increased the incidence of schizophrenia and the rate of fertility in patients measuring sex hormones (testosterone and estrogen) and prolactin hormone. The aim of study was to evaluate the fertility rate and risk factors of schizophrenia. Blood samples were ...

  16. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... but not the presence or type of social capital. The study found no association between bonding and bridging social networks on self-rated risk of HIV among study participants. However, sexually experienced participants rated themselves at low risk of HIV infection despite practicing unsafe sex. Efforts to raise adolescents' ...

  17. 12 CFR 615.5181 - Bank interest rate risk management program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ....5181 Bank interest rate risk management program. (a) The board of directors of each Farm Credit Bank... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bank interest rate risk management program. 615.5181 Section 615.5181 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FUNDING AND...

  18. 12 CFR 563.176 - Interest-rate-risk-management procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest-rate-risk-management procedures. 563.176 Section 563.176 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY SAVINGS ASSOCIATIONS-OPERATIONS Financial Management Policies § 563.176 Interest-rate-risk-management procedures...

  19. Transitional rates, risk and the Ontario wholesale power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, M.

    2001-01-01

    Navigant Consulting is a large investor-owned management consulting firm specializing in energy-based and other networked and regulated industries across Canada. The company works with clients to create delivery and protect shareholder value in the face of uncertainty and change. This presentation discussed the issue of price volatility in competitive electricity markets. The points to keep in mind for pricing in competitive power markets is that: (1) electricity should be generated simultaneously with use, (2) rates in administered markets are average over some time period, (3) competitive pool markets do not average costs, (4) in competitive pool markets, prices are set in very short (hourly or less) intervals, (5) prices in competitive markets are more volatile than in administered markets for both economic and market structure reasons, and (6) the degree of volatility and price levels can change quickly. The Ontario power market was also discussed with reference to price volatility in Ontario and what this means for electricity customers. tabs., figs

  20. Suicide and schizophrenia: a systematic review of rates and risk factors

    OpenAIRE

    Hor, Kahyee; Taylor, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessment is a core skill in psychiatry. Risk prediction for suicide in schizophrenia is known to be complex. We undertook a systematic review of all original studies concerning suicide in schizophrenia published since 2004. We found 51 data-containing studies (from 1281 studies screened) that met our inclusion criteria, and ranked these by standardized quality criteria. Estimates of rates of suicide and risk factors associated with later suicide were identified, and the risk factors we...

  1. Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botshekan, M.; Kraeussl, R.G.W.; Lucas, A.

    2012-01-01

    We test whether asymmetric preferences for losses versus gains affect the prices of cash flow versus discount rate risk. We construct a return decomposition distinguishing cash flow and discount rate betas in up and down markets. Using U.S. data, we find that downside cash flow and discount rate

  2. The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data

    OpenAIRE

    Guin, Benjamin; Brown, Martin

    2015-01-01

    We study the exposure of mortgage borrowers in Switzerland to interest rate, income and house price risks and examine how the households’ choice of risky mortgages is related to individual interest rate expectations and risk-aversion. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of household mortgage applications from September 2012 until January 2014. Our assessment of risk exposure among mortgage borrowers in Switzerland is highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions on mortgage costs, hou...

  3. Information Acquisition and Excessive Risk: Impact of Policy Rate and Market Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volha Audzei

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Excessive risk-taking of financial agents drew a lot of attention in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Low interest rates and subdued market volatility during the Great Moderation are sometimes blamed for stimulating risk-taking and leading to the recent financial crisis. In recent years, with many central banks around the world conducting the policy of low interest rates and mitigating market risks, it has been debatable whether this policy contributes to the building up of another credit boom. This paper addresses this issue by focusing on information acquisition by the financial agents. We build a theoretical model which captures excessive risk taking in response to changes in policy rate and market volatility. This excessive risk takes the form of an increased risk appetite of the agents, but also of decreased incentives to acquire information about risky assets. As a result, with market risk being reduced, agents tend to acquire more risk in their portfolios then they would with the higher market risk. The same forces increase portfolio risk when the safe interest rate is falling. The robustness of the results is considered with different learning rules.

  4. The impact of the European insolvency regulation on lenders, lending decisions, the structuring of transactions and enforcement of security

    OpenAIRE

    Sharma, R

    2011-01-01

    This Thesis seeks to shed light on the issue of how far secured creditor rights are protected in EU cross-border insolvencies by focusing on the perspective and position of English lenders. The main thread throughout is the legal concerns faced by lenders when lending to a company incorporated in England and Wales which operates across the European Union and has assets and creditors spread across various Member States. The initial stages of the structuring of a cross-border security arrangeme...

  5. Corporate interest rate risk management with derivatives in Australia: empirical results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Augusto Ferreira Carneiro

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Financial and insurance theories explain that large widely-held corporations manage corporate risks if doing so is costective to reduce frictional costs such as taxes, agency costs and financial distress costs. A large number of previous empirical studies, most in the U.S., have tested the hypotheses underlying corporate risk management with financial derivative instruments. In order to quantify corporate hedge demand, most previous studies have used the ratio of principal notional amount of derivatives to company size, although they recognize that company size is not an appropriate proxy for financial risk. This paper analyzes the interest-rate-risk hedge demand by Australian companies, measured through the ratio of principal notional amount of interest rate derivatives to interest-rate-riskbearing liabilities. Modern panel data methods are used, with two panel data sets from 1998 to 2003 (1102 and 465 observations, respectively. Detailed information about interest-rate-risk exposures was available after manual data collection from financial annual reports, which was only possible due to specific reporting requirements in Australian accounting standards. Regarding the analysis of the extent of hedge, our measurement of interest-rate-risk exposures generates some significant results di erent from those found in previous studies. For example, this study shows that total leverage (total debt ratio is not significantly important to interest-rate-risk hedge demand and that, instead, this demand is related to the specific risk exposure in the interest bearing part of the firms liabilities. This study finds significant relations of interest-rate-risk hedge to company size, floating-interest-rate debt ratio, annual log returns, and company industry type (utilities and non-banking financial institutions.

  6. Structuring for technology risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klapper, M.

    1993-01-01

    The Colver Power Project in Cambria County, PA, looked good in nearly all aspects, but lenders had concerns about startup problems encountered by earlier waste coal circulating fluidized bed projects. Nevertheless, a closer look at the operating history of the earlier plants showed possible risks could be handled

  7. The European central bank and the us federal reserve as lender of last resort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herr Hansjörg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Without a lender of last resort financial stability is not possible and systemic financial crises get out of control. During and after the Great Recession the US Federal Reserve System (Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB took on the role of lender of last resort in a comprehensive way. The Fed stabilised the financial system, including the shadow banking system. However, the chance to fundamentally restructure the financial system was not used. The ECB was confronted with sovereign debt crises and an incomplete integration of the European Monetary Union (EMU. It followed a kind of “muddling through” to keep the Euro area together. In the EMU not only a fundamental restructuring of the financial system is needed but also a deeper economic and political integration. The Fed and the ECB both were the most important institutions to avoid repetition of the 1930s.

  8. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  9. Smile and Default: The Role of Stochastic Volatility and Interest Rates in Counterparty Credit Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simaitis, S.; de Graaf, C.S.L.; Hari, N.; Kandhai, D.

    2016-01-01

    In this research, we investigate the impact of stochastic volatility and interest rates on counterparty credit risk (CCR) for FX derivatives. To achieve this we analyse two real-life cases in which the market conditions are different, namely during the 2008 credit crisis where risks are high and a

  10. Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elledge, Julie

    2017-12-01

    As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

  11. 38 CFR 36.4212 - Interest rates and late charges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interest rates and late... Site Preparation General Provisions § 36.4212 Interest rates and late charges. (a) In guaranteeing or... interest at a rate that is agreed upon by the veteran and the lender, or bear interest at a rate not in...

  12. Heart rate variability based on risk stratification for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-E-Oliveira, Julia; Amélio, Pâmela Marina; Abranches, Isabela Lopes Laguardia; Damasceno, Dênis Derly; Furtado, Fabianne

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and was classified as low risk (n=26), slightly elevated risk (n=41), moderate risk (n=27) and high risk (n=32). To measure heart rate variability, a heart-rate monitor Polar S810i® was employed to obtain RR series for each individual, at rest, for 5 minutes, followed by analysis of linear and nonlinear indexes. The groups at higher risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus had significantly lower linear and nonlinear heart rate variability indexes. The individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus have lower heart rate variability. Avaliar a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca em adultos com diferentes níveis de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2. O grau de risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 de 130 participantes (41 homens) foi avaliado pelo questionário Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Os participantes foram classificados em baixo risco (n=26), risco levemente elevado (n=41), risco moderado (n=27) e alto risco (n=32). Para medir a variabilidade da frequência cardíaca, utilizou-se o frequencímetro Polar S810i® para obter séries de intervalo RR para cada indivíduo, em repouso, durante 5 minutos; posteriormente, realizou-se análise por meio de índices lineares e não-lineares. O grupo com maior risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 teve uma diminuição significante nos índices lineares e não-lineares da variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. Os resultados apontam que indivíduos com risco alto para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 tem menor variabilidade da frequência cardíaca. To evaluate heart rate variability among adults with different risk levels for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was assessed in 130 participants (89 females) based on the questionnaire Finnish Diabetes Risk Score

  13. Surgical site infection rates and risk factors in orthopedic pediatric patients in Madrid, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viqueira, Almudena Quintás; Caravaca, Gil Rodríguez; Quesada Rubio, José Antonio; Francés, Victoria Soler

    2014-07-01

    The objective of the study is to study surgical site infection (SSI) rates and risk factors in a pediatric population. We conducted a prospective cohort study to estimate the SSI rate at a national pediatric referral center, covering all patients managed at the Orthopedic Surgery Department of the Niño Jesús Children's University Teaching Hospital from January 2010 through December 2012. Risk factors and antibiotic prophylaxis were monitored. A comparison between Spanish and US data was performed, with a breakdown by National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance risk indices. We also conducted a comparative study of SSI rates from 2010 to 2012 to assess the impact of the epidemiologic surveillance system. The study population of 1079 patients had a SSI rate of 2.8%. SSI rates were calculated for spinal fusion and other musculoskeletal procedures according to the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance risk index. In the case of other musculoskeletal procedures, our SSI rates were 0.8 times lower than the overall Spanish rate, but higher than US rates for all risk categories. For spinal fusion procedures, our SSI rates were 1.2 times higher than the Spanish rates and 3.5 times higher than National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance rates. This latter finding should be interpreted with caution because it was based on a small sample. The multivariate analysis indicated that the only predictive factors of SSI were American Society of Anesthesiologists score and age. The surveillance program showed that for clean procedures, SSI incidence decreased from 4% in 2010 to 3.2% in 2011 and to 2.4% in 2012.

  14. Racial/ethnic differences in the rates and correlates of HIV risk behaviors among drug abusers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Audrey J; Lokhnygina, Yuliya; Meade, Christina S; Potter, Jennifer Sharpe; Calsyn, Donald A; Greenfield, Shelly F

    2013-01-01

    HIV infection disproportionately impacts minorities; yet research on racial/ethnic differences in the prevalence and correlates of HIV risk behaviors is limited. This study examined racial/ethnic differences in the rates of HIV risk behaviors and whether the relationship between HIV risk factors and HIV risk behaviors varies by race/ethnicity in clients participating in NIDA Clinical Trials Network trials. The sample was 41% non-Hispanic White, 32% non-Hispanic Black, and 27% Hispanic (N = 2,063). HIV risk behaviors and measures of substance and psychosocial HIV risk factors in the past month were obtained. Non-Hispanic Blacks engaged in less HIV sexual risk behaviors overall than non-Hispanic Whites. While non-Hispanic Whites were the most likely to report any injection drug use, Hispanics engaged in the most HIV drug risk behaviors. Specific risk factors were differentially predictive of HIV risk behavior by race/ethnicity. Alcohol use severity was related to engaging in higher sex risk behaviors for non-Hispanic Blacks and Whites. Greater psychiatric severity was related to engaging in higher sex risk behaviors for non-Hispanic Whites. Drug use severity was associated with engaging in higher risk drug behaviors for non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics with the magnitude of the relationship stronger for Hispanics. These findings highlight the need for further research testing HIV risk prevention interventions within racial/ethnic groups to identify target behaviors or risk factors that are salient to inform HIV interventions. The present study provides a systematic examination of race/ethnicity differences in the relationship between psychosocial risk factors and HIV risk behaviors. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  15. Decreased nighttime heart rate variability is associated with increased stroke risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Binici, Zeynep; Mouridsen, Mette Rauhe; Køber, Lars

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of stroke in healthy individuals is challenging and there is a diurnal variation of stroke onset. We hypothesized that heart rate variability with a focus on nighttime heart rate variability will predict the risk of stroke in apparently healthy middle-age and elderly subjects....

  16. Community rating in the absence of risk equalisation: lessons from the Irish private health insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brian; Shinnick, Edward

    2013-04-01

    Ireland's private health insurance market operates on the basis of community rating, alongside open enrolment and lifetime cover. A risk equalisation scheme was introduced in 2003 to bolster community rating. However, in July 2008 the Irish Supreme Court set aside this scheme, on the basis of the interpretation of community rating in Irish legislation. This decision has significant implications for the Irish private health insurance market. This paper reviews the development of the market, focusing in particular on community rating. The breakdown of community rating in a market with multiple insurers with differing risk profiles is discussed. Applying this to the Irish market, it can be seen that the Irish Supreme Court judgment has significant implications for the application of community rating. Specifically, while community rating operates within plans, it no longer operates across the market, leading to high-risk lives paying more, on average, than low-risk lives. It has also led to greater opportunities for insurers to engage in market segmentation. This may have relevance for the design and operation of other community rated markets.

  17. Nationwide surveillance of drug-resistant tuberculosis in The Netherlands: rates, risk factors and treatment outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lambregts-van Weezenbeek, C. S.; Jansen, H. M.; Nagelkerke, N. J.; van Klingeren, B.; Veen, J.

    1998-01-01

    The Netherlands, 1993 and 1994. To determine 1) rates of drug resistance in relation to nationality and country of birth, 2) risk factors for drug resistance, 3) treatment outcome of drug-resistant cases, and 4) rates of primary and acquired drug resistance. Retrospective study of all cases notified

  18. IIHS side crash test ratings and occupant death risk in real-world crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teoh, Eric R; Lund, Adrian K

    2011-10-01

    To evaluate how well the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) side crash test ratings predict real-world occupant death risk in side-impact crashes. The IIHS has been evaluating passenger vehicle side crashworthiness since 2003. In the IIHS side crash test, a vehicle is impacted perpendicularly on the driver's side by a moving deformable barrier simulating a typical sport utility vehicle (SUV) or pickup. Injury ratings are computed for the head/neck, torso, and pelvis/leg, and vehicles are rated based on their ability to protect occupants' heads and resist occupant compartment intrusion. Component ratings are combined into an overall rating of good, acceptable, marginal, or poor. A driver-only rating was recalculated by omitting rear passenger dummy data. Data were extracted from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and National Automotive Sampling System/General Estimates System (NASS/GES) for the years 2000-2009. Analyses were restricted to vehicles with driver side air bags with head and torso protection as standard features. The risk of driver death was computed as the number of drivers killed (FARS) divided by the number involved (NASS/GES) in left-side impacts and was modeled using logistic regression to control for the effects of driver age and gender and vehicle type and curb weight. Death rates per million registered vehicle years were computed for all outboard occupants and compared by overall rating. Based on the driver-only rating, drivers of vehicles rated good were 70 percent less likely to die when involved in left-side crashes than drivers of vehicles rated poor, after controlling for driver and vehicle factors. Compared with vehicles rated poor, driver death risk was 64 percent lower for vehicles rated acceptable and 49 percent lower for vehicles rated marginal. All 3 results were statistically significant. Among components, vehicle structure rating exhibited the strongest relationship with driver death risk. The vehicle

  19. Rating

    OpenAIRE

    Karas, Vladimír

    2006-01-01

    Charakteristika ratingu. Dělení a druhy ratingu (rating emise × rating emitenta; dlouhodobý rating × krátkodobý rating; mezinárodní rating × lokální rating). Obecné požadavky kladené na rating. Proces tvorby ratingu. Vyžádaný rating. Nevyžádaný rating. Ratingový proces na bázi volně přístupných informací. Uplatňované ratingové systémy. Ratingová kriteria. Využití a interpretace ratingové známky. Funkce ratingu. Rating v souvislosti s BASEL II. Rating v souvislosti s hospodářskými krizemi....

  20. Psychosocial risk predicts high readmission rates for hematopoietic cell transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Daniel R; Huang, Ying; McGinty, Heather L; Elder, Patrick; Newlin, Joanna; Kirkendall, Cyndi; Andritsos, Leslie; Benson, Don; Blum, William; Efebera, Yvonne; Penza, Sam; Hofmeister, Craig; Jaglowski, Samantha; Klisovic, Rebecca; Vasu, Sumithira; William, Basem; Devine, Steven; Rosko, Ashley E

    2018-02-14

    Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is an intensive treatment resulting in disease control however subsequent psychosocial distress is common. Screening for psychosocial risk factors that contribute to morbidity is underutilized; moreover, the value in screening is uncertain. We performed a retrospective study of 395 HCT patients who were screened for psychosocial risk using the Transplant Evaluation Rating Scale (TERS). Patients were classified by psychosocial risk as no-risk (TERS = 26.5, 52%) vs. at-risk (TERS > 26.5, 48%), with at-risk patients stratified by cumulative deficits into mild risk (TERS = 27-35.5, 39%) and moderate risk (TERS > 35.5, 9%). At-risk patients were more likely to be readmitted within 90 days (mild risk HR = 1.62, p = 0.02; moderate risk HR = 2.50, p = 0.002). Prior psychiatric history (HR = 1.81, p = 0.002) and poor coping skills (HR = 1.64, p = 0.04) also influenced readmission. At-risk patients were more likely to be readmitted for infection (no-risk = 12% vs. at-risk = 25%, p = 0.002). Pre-HCT screening with the TERS did not predict survival or length of stay although at-risk patients are at a heighted risk of readmission. Implementing strategies to reduce readmission in higher risk patients is warranted.

  1. Joint default probabilities and sovereign risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, Bert; Hameeteman, Daphne

    2007-01-01

    The assessment of sovereign risk is of crucial importance for international lenders and investors. Many existing sovereign risk approaches are opaque and heavily rely on subjective choices. In general, they lack a theoretical basis. To assess sovereign risk, we use the Merton model in which a loan

  2. Joint default probabilities and country risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, Bert; Hameeteman, Daphne

    2003-01-01

    The assessment of country risk is of crucial importance for both developing countries and international lenders and investors. Many existing country risk approaches are opaque and heavily rely on subjective choices. In general, they lack a theoretical basis. To assess country risk, we use the Merton

  3. Risk-adjusted melanoma skin cancer incidence rates in Whites (United States).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Ray Martell

    2011-12-01

    The objective of this study was to obtain a better population-based measure of risk for melanoma skin cancer. A method has been previously proposed for estimating cancer incidence rates for data collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Unlike conventionally reported incidence rates in the USA, this method uses the first primary cancer and adjusts for population-based cancer prevalence to obtain a better measure of cancer risk. The study involves SEER data for white men and women. Conventional melanoma incidence rates overestimate risk for men, increasingly so from 3.3% in the age group of 30-39 years to 11.3% in the age group of 80 years and older. Overestimation in risk for women ranged from 3.3% in the age group of 30-39 years to 8.9% in the age group of 80 years and older. Overestimation of risk was more pronounced when both in-situ and malignant melanomas were considered. Increasing trends in conventional rates were slightly greater than trends in risk-adjusted incidence rates (RAIRs). In 2007, the estimated number of cases with malignant melanoma among the white population based on conventional cancer incidence rates is 37 636 (64 125 including in-situ cases) for men and 28 935 (49 361 including in-situ cases) for women. The estimated number of cases in the USA based on RAIRS is 34 652 [(7.9%); 55 413 (13.6%) including in-situ cases] for male and 27 178 [(6.1%); 44 467 (9.9%) including in-situ cases] for women. We concluded that RAIRs are a better measure of melanoma skin cancer risk and should be used for estimating the number of cancer patients in the USA.

  4. State disparities in colorectal cancer rates: Contributions of risk factors, screening, and survival differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Goede, S Lucas; Ma, Jiemin; Xiau-Cheng, Wu; Pawlish, Karen; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Jemal, Ahmedin

    2015-10-15

    Northeastern states of the United States have shown more progress in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates than Southern states, and this has resulted in considerable disparities. This study quantified how the disparities in CRC rates between Louisiana (a Southern state) and New Jersey (a Northeastern state) would be affected if differences in risk factors, screening, and stage-specific CRC relative survival between the states were eliminated. This study used the Microsimulation Screening Analysis Colon microsimulation model to estimate age-adjusted CRC incidence and mortality rates in Louisiana from 1995 to 2009 under the assumption that 1) Louisiana had the same smoking and obesity prevalence observed in New Jersey, 2) Louisiana had the same CRC screening uptake observed in New Jersey, 3) Louisiana had the same stage-specific CRC relative survival observed in New Jersey, or 4) all the preceding were true. In 2009, the observed CRC incidence and mortality rates in Louisiana were 141.4 cases and 61.9 deaths per 100,000 individuals, respectively. With the same risk factors and screening observed in New Jersey, the CRC incidence rate in Louisiana was reduced by 3.5% and 15.2%, respectively. New Jersey's risk factors, screening, and survival reduced the CRC mortality rate in Louisiana by 3.0%, 10.8%, and 17.4%, respectively. With all trends combined, the modeled rates per 100,000 individuals in Louisiana became lower than the observed rates in New Jersey for both incidence (116.4 vs 130.0) and mortality (44.7 vs 55.8). The disparities in CRC incidence and mortality rates between Louisiana and New Jersey could be eliminated if Louisiana could attain New Jersey's levels of risk factors, screening, and survival. Priority should be given to enabling Southern states to improve screening and survival rates. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  5. Contagion risk in endogenous financial networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Shouwei; Sui, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose an endogenous financial network model. • Endogenous networks include interbank networks, inter-firm networks and bank-firm networks. • We investigate contagion risk in endogenous financial networks. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate contagion risk in an endogenous financial network, which is characterized by credit relationships connecting downstream and upstream firms, interbank credit relationships and credit relationships connecting firms and banks. The findings suggest that: increasing the number of potential lenders randomly selected can lead to an increase in the number of bank bankruptcies, while the number of firm bankruptcies presents a trend of increase after the decrease; after the intensity of choice parameter rises beyond a threshold, the number of bankruptcies in three sectors (downstream firms, upstream firms and banks) shows a relatively large margin of increase, and keeps at a relatively high level; there exists different trends for bankruptcies in different sectors with the change of the parameter of credits’ interest rates.

  6. 7 CFR 4287.112 - Interest rate adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate adjustments. 4287.112 Section 4287.112... Loans § 4287.112 Interest rate adjustments. (a) Reductions. The borrower, lender, and holder (if any) may collectively initiate a permanent or temporary reduction in the interest rate of the guaranteed...

  7. 24 CFR 241.560 - Agreed interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Agreed interest rate. 241.560... § 241.560 Agreed interest rate. (a) The mortgage shall bear interest at the rate agreed upon by the lender and the borrower. (b) Interest shall be payable in monthly installments on the principal amount of...

  8. 24 CFR 241.1070 - Agreed interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Agreed interest rate. 241.1070...-Eligibility Requirements § 241.1070 Agreed interest rate. The equity or acquisition loan shall bear interest at the rate agreed upon by the borrower and the lender. ...

  9. Risk factors associated with high prevalence rates of hepatitis C infection in Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reker, Celeste; Islam, K M

    2014-08-01

    Egypt has the highest reported prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) globally. Until now, no systematic review has been conducted to understand risk factors associated with these high prevalence rates of HCV. This study attempted to identify the various HCV risk factors in Egypt responsible for the high incidence and prevalence rates. Using systematic literature review methods, we searched databases for eligible manuscripts, selecting cohort and case-control studies published in English. Peer-reviewed papers published between 2008 and February 2013 were included. A total of 11 articles met the study selection criteria. The most examined risk factors found during our review analysis were surgery, transfusion, and age (64-82% of total articles; n = 11). Multiple risk factors held significant association with HCV infection in the included research. Based on this review, the main HCV risk factor categories are unsafe medical practices and familial risk factors. Improving medical safety and encouraging familial education on HCV may help reduce the incidence of the disease. Most risk factors for HCV transmission in Egypt are healthcare-associated. Primary prevention of HCV infection remains important to reduce HCV transmission. Further research should also focus on risk factor dynamics of HCV in Egypt to reduce transmission and HCV disease burden. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. Suicide and schizophrenia: a systematic review of rates and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hor, Kahyee; Taylor, Mark

    2010-11-01

    Risk assessment is a core skill in psychiatry. Risk prediction for suicide in schizophrenia is known to be complex. We undertook a systematic review of all original studies concerning suicide in schizophrenia published since 2004. We found 51 data-containing studies (from 1281 studies screened) that met our inclusion criteria, and ranked these by standardized quality criteria. Estimates of rates of suicide and risk factors associated with later suicide were identified, and the risk factors were grouped according to type and strength of association with suicide. Consensus on the lifetime risk of suicide was a rate of approximately 5%. Risk factors with a strong association with later suicide included being young, male, and with a high level of education. Illness-related risk factors were important predictors, with number of prior suicide attempts, depressive symptoms, active hallucinations and delusions, and the presence of insight all having a strong evidential basis. A family history of suicide, and comorbid substance misuse were also positively associated with later suicide. The only consistent protective factor for suicide was delivery of and adherence to effective treatment. Prevention of suicide in schizophrenia will rely on identifying those individuals at risk, and treating comorbid depression and substance misuse, as well as providing best available treatment for psychotic symptoms.

  11. A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

  12. Health risk factors and self-rated health among job-seekers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freyer-Adam, Jennis; Gaertner, Beate; Tobschall, Stefanie; John, Ulrich

    2011-08-19

    To determine a) proportions of behavior related health risk factors among job-seekers and b) to what extend these are related to self-rated health. Over 12 months, job-seekers were recruited at three job-agencies in northeastern Germany. Among all individuals eligible for study inclusion, 7,906 (79.8%) provided information on smoking, risky drinking, overweight/obesity (body mass index), fruit and vegetable intake, physical inactivity, illicit drug use, and self-rated health. Proportions and 95% confidence intervals stratified by gender, age and duration of unemployment were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses predicting self-rated health were conducted. The proportions of each health-risk factor were high, and 52.4% of the sample (53.4% male, 33.5 years mean age) had 3 or more health risk factors. Mostly, the proportions were particularly high among men and long-term unemployed individuals; e.g. 84.8% of the 18-24 year old long-term unemployed men were current smokers. Proportions of substance use related health risk factors were highest among the 18-24 year olds (e.g. risky drinking 28.7%), and proportions of health risk factors related to nutrition and physical inactivity were highest among the 40-64 year olds (e.g. overweight/obesity 65.4%). Depending on gender, all health risk factors and having 3 or more health risk factors were associated with lower self-rated health; odd ratios ranged between 1.2 for smoking (95% CI: 1.0-1.3) and 1.7 for overweight and physical inactivity (95% CI: 1.5-1.9). Prevention efforts to reduce health risk factors and to increase health among job-seekers are needed, and job agencies appear a feasible setting for their implementation.

  13. Health risk factors and self-rated health among job-seekers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobschall Stefanie

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To determine a proportions of behavior related health risk factors among job-seekers and b to what extend these are related to self-rated health. Methods Over 12 months, job-seekers were recruited at three job-agencies in northeastern Germany. Among all individuals eligible for study inclusion, 7,906 (79.8% provided information on smoking, risky drinking, overweight/obesity (body mass index, fruit and vegetable intake, physical inactivity, illicit drug use, and self-rated health. Proportions and 95% confidence intervals stratified by gender, age and duration of unemployment were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses predicting self-rated health were conducted. Results The proportions of each health-risk factor were high, and 52.4% of the sample (53.4% male, 33.5 years mean age had 3 or more health risk factors. Mostly, the proportions were particularly high among men and long-term unemployed individuals; e.g. 84.8% of the 18-24 year old long-term unemployed men were current smokers. Proportions of substance use related health risk factors were highest among the 18-24 year olds (e.g. risky drinking 28.7%, and proportions of health risk factors related to nutrition and physical inactivity were highest among the 40-64 year olds (e.g. overweight/obesity 65.4%. Depending on gender, all health risk factors and having 3 or more health risk factors were associated with lower self-rated health; odd ratios ranged between 1.2 for smoking (95% CI: 1.0-1.3 and 1.7 for overweight and physical inactivity (95% CI: 1.5-1.9. Conclusions Prevention efforts to reduce health risk factors and to increase health among job-seekers are needed, and job agencies appear a feasible setting for their implementation.

  14. 25 CFR 103.6 - To what extent will BIA guarantee or insure a loan?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... insurance percentage rate that satisfies the lender's risk management requirements. (d) Absent exceptional... lender has insured under the Program as of the date the lender makes a claim under its insurance coverage... outstanding loans from the same lender to the same borrower; or (2) One loan guaranty under the Program when...

  15. 13 CFR 120.433 - What are SBA's other requirements for sales and sales of participating interests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Lender has satisfactory SBA performance, as determined by SBA in its discretion. The Lender's Risk Rating... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Lenders Other Conveyances § 120.433 What are SBA's other requirements for sales and sales of participating interests? SBA requires the following: (a) The Lender must be...

  16. Pulsed electromagnetic field stimulation may improve fusion rates in cervical arthrodesis in high-risk populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coric, D; Bullard, D E; Patel, V V; Ryaby, J T; Atkinson, B L; He, D; Guyer, R D

    2018-02-01

    Pulsed electromagnetic field (PEMF) stimulation was evaluated after anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) procedures in a randomized, controlled clinical study performed for United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval. PEMF significantly increased fusion rates at six months, but 12-month fusion outcomes for subjects at elevated risk for pseudoarthrosis were not thoroughly reported. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the effect of PEMF treatment on subjects at increased risk for pseudoarthrosis after ACDF procedures. Two evaluations were performed that compared fusion rates between PEMF stimulation and a historical control (160 subjects) from the FDA investigational device exemption (IDE) study: a post hoc (PH) analysis of high-risk subjects from the FDA study (PH PEMF); and a multicentre, open-label (OL) study consisting of 274 subjects treated with PEMF (OL PEMF). Fisher's exact test and multivariate logistic regression was used to compare fusion rates between PEMF-treated subjects and historical controls. In separate comparisons of PH PEMF and OL PEMF groups to the historical control group, PEMF treatment significantly (p PEMF treatment can be recommended for patients who are at high risk for pseudoarthrosis. Cite this article : D. Coric, D. E. Bullard, V. V. Patel, J. T. Ryaby, B. L. Atkinson, D. He, R. D. Guyer. Pulsed electromagnetic field stimulation may improve fusion rates in cervical arthrodesis in high-risk populations. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:124-130. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.72.BJR-2017-0221.R1. © 2018 Coric et al.

  17. Risk Management of Interest Rate Derivative Portfolios: A Stochastic Control Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Kiriakopoulos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we formulate the Risk Management Control problem in the interest rate area as a constrained stochastic portfolio optimization problem. The utility that we use can be any continuous function and based on the viscosity theory, the unique solution of the problem is guaranteed. The numerical approximation scheme is presented and applied using a single factor interest rate model. It is shown how the whole methodology works in practice, with the implementation of the algorithm for a specific interest rate portfolio. The recent financial crisis showed that risk management of derivatives portfolios especially in the interest rate market is crucial for the stability of the financial system. Modern Value at Risk (VAR and Conditional Value at Risk (CVAR techniques, although very useful and easy to understand, fail to grasp the need for on-line controlling and monitoring of derivatives portfolio. The portfolios should be designed in a way that risk and return be quantified and controlled in every possible state of the world. We hope that this methodology contributes towards this direction.

  18. Binary Tree Pricing to Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk under Stochastic Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbo Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The convertible bonds usually have multiple additional provisions that make their pricing problem more difficult than straight bonds and options. This paper uses the binary tree method to model the finance market. As the underlying stock prices and the interest rates are important to the convertible bonds, we describe their dynamic processes by different binary tree. Moreover, we consider the influence of the credit risks on the convertible bonds that is described by the default rate and the recovery rate; then the two-factor binary tree model involving the credit risk is established. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, we make numerical simulation and get the pricing results when the stock prices are CRR model and the interest rates follow the constant volatility and the time-varying volatility, respectively. This model can be extended to other financial derivative instruments.

  19. Development of a modified Winchester disability scale--the elderly at risk rating scale.

    OpenAIRE

    Donald, I P

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To show that the elderly at risk rating scale (EARRS) satisfies the requirements of an assessment tool for routine health checks in people over 75 and would also be suitable as a method of collecting epidemiological data on the needs of the elderly in a locality. DESIGN: Development and validation of a questionnaire based on a modification of the Winchester rating scale, by a series of prospective, comparative studies before the use of the instrument in a community survey. SETTING:...

  20. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

  1. 7 CFR Exhibit B to Subpart F of... - Suggested Outline for Seeking Information From Lenders on Credit Criteria for Graduation of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Suggested Outline for Seeking Information From Lenders... Seeking Information From Lenders on Credit Criteria for Graduation of Single Family Housing Loans Date... (CONTINUED) PROGRAM REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) SERVICING AND COLLECTIONS Analyzing Credit Needs and Graduation...

  2. How to Manage the Mortgage Credit Risk in Turkey? Can Dual-indexed Mortgages be a Remedy?

    OpenAIRE

    Ali Alp; M. Mete Doganay

    2009-01-01

    A market-oriented housing finance system has been under discussion in Turkey recently. In this article we analyze different types of mortgages that have been used in developed and developing countries to select the one that is most appropriate for Turkey-one which minimizes risks for both lenders and borrowers. Each type of mortgage presents different risks to borrowers and lenders. After taking into consideration the economic history of Turkey, we conclude that the most appropriate mortgage ...

  3. Risk adjustment for inter-hospital comparisons of caesarean section rates in Taipei municipal hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Chun-Chyang; Shieh, Guahn-Ren; Wu, Chuan-Song; Shen, Hsi-Che; Tang, Chao-Hsiun

    2006-08-01

    This study sets out to determine whether adjustments for specific patient caesarean delivery risk factors have an affect on the assessment of performance rates among the municipal hospitals of Taipei City. Analysis of National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data, linked with birth certificate data, was undertaken on a cohort of 27,693 live births in the six general hospitals of the Taipei Medical Hospital System (TMHS) between 1999 and 2001. Using multivariable logistic regression modeling of the risk factors independently associated with caesarean deliveries, an expected caesarean delivery rate was constructed for each of the hospitals. By contrasting observed rates with expected rates to quantify the magnitude of the deviation from average practice, a measurement similar to relative risk (RR) was also constructed for each hospital. The observed rates for two of the six hospitals examined fell within the expected 95% confidence interval (CI), two were above the expected upper limit, and two were below the expected lower limit. The RR ranking of Hospitals A (RR=1.08, CI=1.01-1.15) and C (RR=1.01, CI=1.00-1.03) improved from first to second, and third to fourth, whilst the RR of Hospitals B (RR=1.09, CI=1.05-1.14) and D (RR=1.02, CI=0.99-1.06) worsened from second to first, and fourth to third, respectively. The RR rankings of Hospitals E (RR=0.92, CI=0.88-0.96) and F (RR=0.80, CI=0.77-0.84) were the same as the observed rates. Caesarean delivery rate profiles, or hospital comparisons without risk adjustment, may be methodologically biased and may lead to unfair judgments by healthcare purchasers.

  4. Customer Order Flow, Intermediaries, and Discovery of the Equilibrium Risk-Free Rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menkveld, A.J.; Sarkar, A.; van der Wel, M.

    2012-01-01

    Macro announcements change the equilibrium risk-free rate. We find that Treasury prices reflect part of the impact instantaneously, but intermediaries rely on their customer order flow after the announcement to discover the full impact. This customer flow informativeness is strongest when analyst

  5. Hostility Ratings by Parents at Risk for Child Abuse: Impact of Chronic and Temporary Schema Activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farc, Maria-Magdalena; Crouch, Julie L.; Skowronski, John J.; Milner, Joel S.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Two studies examined whether accessibility of hostility-related schema influenced ratings of ambiguous child pictures. Based on the social information processing model of child physical abuse (CPA), it was expected that CPA risk status would serve as a proxy for chronic accessibility of hostile schema, while priming procedures were used…

  6. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... the risk of survival in acute stroke. INTRODUCTION. Stroke is independently associated with impairment in the structure and function of the glomerulus. (1). Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (GFR) as determined by the four-item Modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) equation is a fairly reliable.

  7. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elizabeth J. Lyimo

    2014-03-18

    Mar 18, 2014 ... The association between social networks and self- rated risk of HIV infection among secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, Tanzania. Elizabeth J. Lyimo a. , Jim Todd bc. , Lisa Ann Richey d. & Bernard Njau e a. MPH, Kilimanjaro Christian Medical University College, Tumaini University, Moshi,.

  8. Mapping at-risk-of-poverty rates, household employment, and social spending

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenbroucke, F.; Diris, R.; Cantillon, B.; Vandenbroucke, F.

    2014-01-01

    As a first step stylized facts are presented concerning at-risk-of-poverty rates for the non-elderly population, household employment (a concept introduced in this chapter) and social spending in European welfare states. The chapter provides a first exploration of a central theme of the book, which

  9. How costly is it to ignore interest rate risk management in your 401(k) plan?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bilsen, Servaas; Boelaars, I.; Bovenberg, Lans; Mehlkopf, Roel

    This paper explicitly derives and explores optimal interest rate risk management for lifecycle investors in DC pension plans, and compares our results to the portfolio mix chosen in practice by Target-Date Fund (TDF) managers. We show that investments in long-term bonds play an important role in the

  10. 1988 failure rate screening data for fusion reliability and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.; Piet, S.J.

    1988-01-01

    This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems and containment systems are given. Preliminary system availability estimates and selected initiating event frequency estimates are presented. This first edition document is valuable to design and safety analysis for the Compact Ignition Tokamak and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. 20 refs., 28 tabs

  11. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

    1991-01-01

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

  12. Injury rates, types, mechanisms and risk factors in female youth ice hockey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decloe, Melissa D; Meeuwisse, Willem H; Hagel, Brent E; Emery, Carolyn A

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this cohort study were to examine the rate, types, mechanisms and risk factors for injury in female youth (ages 9-17) ice hockey players in the Girls Hockey Calgary Association. The main outcome was ice hockey injury, defined as any injury occurring during the 2008/2009 season that required medical attention, and/or removal from a session and/or missing a subsequent session. Potential risk factors included age group, level of play, previous injury, ice hockey experience, physical activity level, weight, height, position of play and menarche. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were estimated with Poisson Regression adjusted for cluster (team). Exposure data were collected for every session for each participating player. Twenty-eight teams (n=324) from Atom (ages 9-10), PeeWee (11-12), Bantam (13-14) and Midget (15-17) participated with 53 reported injuries. The overall injury rate was 1.9 injuries/1000 player-hours (95% CI 1.4 to 2.7). Previous injury (IRR=2.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 4.3), games (IRR=2.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.2), menarche (PeeWee) (IRR=4.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 16.8) were significant risk factors. In Midget, the more elite divisions were associated with a lower injury risk (A-IRR=0.2, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.5) (AAA-IRR=0.5, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.9). Injury rates were lower in this study than previously found in male youth and women's ice hockey populations. Previous injury and game play as risk factors are consistent with the literature. Menarche as a risk factor is a new finding in this study. This research will inform future studies of the development of injury prevention strategies in this population.

  13. Risk-free assets: Are they truly risk-free? A comparative study of South African rates and instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oosthuizen, A.V.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Determining the price of a financial instrument is something that happens every day in the financial markets. Every price starts off with a spot price adjusted for interest until maturity of the particular instrument. The interest is usually described as risk-free interest. The price so determined is the most basic price that an investor is willing to pay if not risk is involved. Risk-free assets, then, are securities of which the future rates of return are known with certainty. An exceptional degree of confidence in the issuer of the security brings about this certainty. Risk-free assets are normally in the fixed income securities (capital markets investment category or in the liquid money market instruments such as treasury bills, category. This study attempts to determine whether the risk-free rates used by treasury managers and traders in South Africa to formulate their bond yield curves and which are used in valuation models, may be deemed risk-free. The study specifies certain criteria that an asset must satisfy in order to be used as a risk-free asset. Short term and long term South African instruments are compared to the US counterpart instruments, to gain an understanding of the South African instruments relative to the US ones. The behaviour of the risk-free instruments used in South Africa is also compared to the FTSE/JSE All Share Index and gold spot prices, which are perceived to be a risky asset classes. To gain some understanding of the behaviour of these instruments, analyses were done from different angles. The standard deviations of the daily percentage changes of the R157 were significantly lower than that of the ALSI and the gold spot price change. Compared to the ALSI and gold spot price, therefore, the R157 may be deemed a “low risk” instrument. The JIBAR was even less volatile that the R157. Interestingly, the US instruments were substantially more risky than the SA instruments over the analysis period. Also the JIBAR

  14. Rates and risk factors of injury in CrossFitTM: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Sebastian; Booker, Harry; Staines, Jacob; Williams, Sean

    2017-09-01

    CrossFitTM is a strength and conditioning program that has gained widespread popularity since its inception approximately 15 years ago. However, at present little is known about the level of injury risk associated with this form of training. Movement competency, assessed using the Functional Movement ScreenTM (FMS), has been identified as a risk factor for injury in numerous athletic populations, but its role in CrossFit participants is currently unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the level of injury risk associated with CrossFit training, and examine the influence of a number of potential risk factors (including movement competency). A cohort of 117 CrossFit participants were followed prospectively for 12 weeks. Participants' characteristics, previous injury history and training experience were recorded at baseline, and an FMS assessment was conducted. The overall injury incidence rate was 2.10 per 1000 training hours (90% confidence limits: 1.32-3.33). A multivariate Poisson regression model identified males (rate ratio [RR]: 4.44 ×/÷ 3.30, very likely harmful) and those with previous injuries (RR: 2.35 ×/÷ 2.37, likely harmful) as having a higher injury risk. Inferences relating to FMS variables were unclear in the multivariate model, although number of asymmetries was a clear risk factor in a univariate model (RR per two additional asymmetries: 2.62 ×/÷ 1.53, likely harmful). The injury incidence rate associated with CrossFit training was low, and comparable to other forms of recreational fitness activities. Previous injury and gender were identified as risk factors for injury, whilst the role of movement competency in this setting warrants further investigation.

  15. THE CHOSEN EXCHANGE RATE AS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCING THE RISKS OF CURRENCY EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Attila Rozsa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The profitability of the operation of an enterprise is influenced by several factors. Beside the evolution of market supply and demand the hectic changes in exchange rates have an increasingly important role too. Since the start of the economic crisis in the autumn of 2008, changes in the exchange rate have been more and more emphasized. The article deals with methods for decreasing exchange risks of foreign currency transactions, without the need of completeness. In international trade due to the growth of the number of currency loans the significance of managing financial risks coming from the changes in exchange rates has increased. One of the most obvious tools is properly selected currency.

  16. Default contagion risks in Russian interbank market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonidov, A. V.; Rumyantsev, E. L.

    2016-06-01

    Systemic risks of default contagion in the Russian interbank market are investigated. The analysis is based on considering the bow-tie structure of the weighted oriented graph describing the structure of the interbank loans. A probabilistic model of interbank contagion explicitly taking into account the empirical bow-tie structure reflecting functionality of the corresponding nodes (borrowers, lenders, borrowers and lenders simultaneously), degree distributions and disassortativity of the interbank network under consideration based on empirical data is developed. The characteristics of contagion-related systemic risk calculated with this model are shown to be in agreement with those of explicit stress tests.

  17. Withdrawal rates as a consequence of disclosure of risk associated with manipulation of the cervical spine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forrest Lianne

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk associated with cervical manipulation is controversial. Research in this area is widely variable but as yet the risk is not easily quantifiable. This presents a problem when informing the patient of risks when seeking consent and information may be withheld due to the fear of patient withdrawal from care. As yet, there is a lack of research into the frequency of risk disclosure and consequent withdrawal from manipulative treatment as a result. This study seeks to investigate the reality of this and to obtain insight into the attitudes of chiropractors towards informed consent and disclosure. Methods Questionnaires were posted to 200 UK chiropractors randomly selected from the register of the General Chiropractic Council. Results A response rate of 46% (n = 92 was achieved. Thirty-three per cent (n = 30 respondents were female and the mean number of years in practice was 10. Eighty-eight per cent considered explanation of the risks associated with any recommended treatment important when obtaining informed consent. However, only 45% indicated they always discuss this with patients in need of cervical manipulation. When asked whether they believed discussing the possibility of a serious adverse reaction to cervical manipulation could increase patient anxiety to the extent there was a strong possibility the patient would refuse treatment, 46% said they believed this could happen. Nonetheless, 80% said they believed they had a moral/ethical obligation to disclose risk associated with cervical manipulation despite these concerns. The estimated number of withdrawals throughout respondents' time in practice was estimated at 1 patient withdrawal for every 2 years in practice. Conclusion The withdrawal rate from cervical manipulation as a direct consequence of the disclosure of associated serious risks appears unfounded. However, notwithstanding legal obligations, reluctance to disclose risk due to fear of increasing patient

  18. Withdrawal rates as a consequence of disclosure of risk associated with manipulation of the cervical spine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langworthy, Jennifer M; Forrest, Lianne

    2010-10-26

    The risk associated with cervical manipulation is controversial. Research in this area is widely variable but as yet the risk is not easily quantifiable. This presents a problem when informing the patient of risks when seeking consent and information may be withheld due to the fear of patient withdrawal from care. As yet, there is a lack of research into the frequency of risk disclosure and consequent withdrawal from manipulative treatment as a result. This study seeks to investigate the reality of this and to obtain insight into the attitudes of chiropractors towards informed consent and disclosure. Questionnaires were posted to 200 UK chiropractors randomly selected from the register of the General Chiropractic Council. A response rate of 46% (n = 92) was achieved. Thirty-three per cent (n = 30) respondents were female and the mean number of years in practice was 10. Eighty-eight per cent considered explanation of the risks associated with any recommended treatment important when obtaining informed consent. However, only 45% indicated they always discuss this with patients in need of cervical manipulation. When asked whether they believed discussing the possibility of a serious adverse reaction to cervical manipulation could increase patient anxiety to the extent there was a strong possibility the patient would refuse treatment, 46% said they believed this could happen. Nonetheless, 80% said they believed they had a moral/ethical obligation to disclose risk associated with cervical manipulation despite these concerns. The estimated number of withdrawals throughout respondents' time in practice was estimated at 1 patient withdrawal for every 2 years in practice. The withdrawal rate from cervical manipulation as a direct consequence of the disclosure of associated serious risks appears unfounded. However, notwithstanding legal obligations, reluctance to disclose risk due to fear of increasing patient anxiety still remains, despite acknowledgement of moral and

  19. The Impact of Urethral Risk Factors on Transcorporeal Artificial Urinary Sphincter Erosion Rates and Device Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mock, Stephen; Dmochowski, Roger R; Brown, Elizabeth T; Reynolds, W Stuart; Kaufman, Melissa R; Milam, Douglas F

    2015-12-01

    We report the impact of urethral risk factors on erosion rates and device survival outcomes after transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincter placement. We performed a retrospective analysis of all transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincters placed at a single institution between January 2000 and May 2014. We assessed patient demographic, comorbid diseases and surgical characteristics for risk factors considered poor for device survival. Risk factors were compared to postoperative complications requiring explantation, including cuff erosion, infection and device revision. A total of 37 transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincters were placed in 35 men. Placement was performed as a primary procedure in 21 of 37 cases (56.8%) and as salvage in the remainder. In this transcorporeal population there were 7 explantations (18.9%) due to erosion in 4 cases, cuff downsizing in 2 and infection in 1. Median followup from implantation to last followup was 8.5 months (range 0.9 to 63). Median time from artificial urinary sphincter placement to explantation was 17.3 months (range 0.9 to 63) and time specifically to transcorporeal erosion was 7.4 months (range 0.9 to 26). On univariate analysis no parameters were associated with sphincter cuff erosion but a history of an inflatable penile prosthesis was associated with a higher device explantation rate (60% vs 12.5%, p=0.04). No associations were revealed on multivariate logistic analysis. All 4 cuff erosion cases demonstrated greater than 2 urethral risk factors, including prior radiation therapy in all. The probability of cuff erosion in patients with 2 or more urethral risk factors was 1.65 times the probability of erosion in those with 0 or 1 urethral risk factor (95% CI 1.3, 2.2). The proportion of patients free of erosion at 35 months was 100% in those with 0 or 1 urethral risk factor and 64% in those with 2 or more risk factors (log rank test p=0.00). Similarly the proportion of patients free of explantation at 35 months

  20. Freight-train derailment rates for railroad safety and risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Rapik Saat, M; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2017-01-01

    Derailments are the most common type of train accident in the United States. They cause damage to infrastructure, rolling stock and lading, disrupt service, and have the potential to cause casualties, and harm the environment. Train safety and risk analysis relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood. Derailment rate - the number of derailments normalized by traffic exposure - is a useful statistic to estimate the likelihood of a derailment. Despite its importance, derailment rate analysis using multiple factors has not been previously developed. In this paper, we present an analysis of derailment rates on Class I railroad mainlines based on data from the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration and the major freight railroads. The point estimator and confidence interval of train and car derailment rates are developed by FRA track class, method of operation and annual traffic density. The analysis shows that signaled track with higher FRA track class and higher traffic density is associated with a lower derailment rate. The new accident rates have important implications for safety and risk management decisions, such as the routing of hazardous materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Trend of Stillbirth Rates and the Associated Risk Factors in Babol, Northern Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karimollah Hajian-Tilaki

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Stillbirth is an important public health concern and its rate indicates the sanitary development of society. The purpose of this study is to determine the trend of stillbirth rates and its risk factors in Babol. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted based on the data of hospital charts of two major Gynecological wards in Shahid Yahyanejat and Babol clinic hospitals in Babol, Northern Iran. In the first phase, the frequencies of stillbirths and live birth deliveries were collected for the period of 1999-2008. In the second phase, a case-control study of 150 stillbirths cases and 300 live births as controls was conducted. The risk factors data included maternal age, gestational age, gravity, history of stillbirth, abortion, diabetes mellitus, preeclampsia, fetal sex, residence area, birth interval and prenatal care. The odds ratio for risk factors with 95% confidence interval for stillbirths was calculated using the logistic regression model. Results: Stillbirth rate was reduced significantly from 10.51 in 1999 to 8.57 per 1000 deliveries in 2008 (p=0.001. A significant association was found between preterm delivery (p=0.001 and preeclampsia (p=0.01 with stillbirths. Although the proportion of stillbirths was higher among mothers with history of diabetes, abortion and maternal age of more than 35 years, the odds ratio was not statistically significant. Conclusion: There is a relationship between stillbirth, preterm delivery and preeclampsia. Thus, we can considerably prevent stillbirths with sanitary remedial interference on these risk factors.

  2. Evaluation of preoperative risk factors and complication rates in cosmetic breast surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanemann, Michael S; Grotting, James C

    2010-05-01

    To assess the relationships between body mass index, smoking, and diabetes and postoperative complications after cosmetic breast surgery, based on patient claims made to CosmetAssure, a program which provides coverage for treatment of significant complications, which might not be reimbursed by patients' health insurance carriers. Complication rates of cosmetic breast operations were reviewed from 13,475 consecutive patients between April 1, 2008 and March 31, 2009. Correlations between complication rates and risk factors of body mass index > or =30, smoking, and diabetes were analyzed. Because this insurance program reimburses patients for costs associated with the treatment of postsurgical complications, physicians are incentivized to report significant complications. A "significant" complication is defined as a postsurgical problem, occurring within 30 days of the procedure that requires admission to a hospital, emergency room, or surgery center. Minor complications that were treated in the outpatient setting are not included, as their treatment did not generate an insurance claim. According to patient claims data between April 1, 2008 and March 31, 2009, the overall complication rate for cosmetic breast surgery was 1.8%. Obese patients (body mass index > or = 30) undergoing breast augmentation and augmentation mastopexy demonstrated higher complication rates than nonobese patients. Patients with diabetes undergoing augmentation mastopexy experienced higher complication rates than nondiabetics. Data collection is ongoing, and as the number of cases increases (approximately 1300 new cosmetic breast surgeries per month), multiple other trends in this study will likely achieve statistical significance. Analysis of CosmetAssure data can accurately and objectively track the rate of significant postoperative complications secondary to cosmetic surgical procedures. As the number of risk factors increase, the risk of complications increases. Cosmetic breast surgery is

  3. Asymmetry and Risk Premia in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Ganem

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk premium in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates is partially driven by some specific defensive behavior following past monetary decisions. Until 2008, the Brazilian Central Bank has primarily dealt with domestic and external crises by raising the short term rate to restrain capital outflows, generating a well-known asymmetry in the market’s response functions to risk aversion. Therefore, the traditional parameterization of risk based on mean and variance estimators fails to capture the market price of risk eventually assigned to higher order moments of bond returns across several maturities. In this paper we propose an arbitrage-free, discrete-time model that provides the form for a lagged endogenous regression which tests the significance and magnitude of the market price of asymmetry in the Brazilian fixed income market. The results are analyzed from a historical perspective, comparing the evolution of the price of asymmetry, the improvement of Brazil’s sovereign risk and the monetary policy conduction from 2003 to 2009.

  4. High heart rate: more than a risk factor. Lessons from a clinical practice survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, Vivencio; Escobar, Carlos; Bertomeu, Vicente; Murga, Nekane; de Pablo, Carmen; Asín, Enrique

    2009-11-12

    Several epidemiological studies have reported that an elevated heart rate (HR) is associated with coronary atherosclerosis independently of other risk factors. Nevertheless, it is still unclear whether HR is itself the cause or there is merely an association between HR and mortality in this population. A total of 1686 patients with hypertension and chronic ischemic heart disease were included in this study. According to the resting HR, the patients were distributed in 3 groups (group 1: HR82 bpm). 580 patients (34.4%) belonged to group 1; 936 (55.5%) to group 2 and 170 (10.1%) to group 3. Patients with high HR exhibited a poorer prognosis not only due to a worse clinical profile (more concomitant cardiovascular risk factors and organ damage), but suggestively because despite the use of a similar number of drugs, patients with higher HR were associated with lesser risk control rates in daily clinical practice. Despite current guidelines that do not still recognize HR as a cardiovascular risk factor, it appears that physicians should pay more attention to it in clinical practice since high HR is warning about an increased risk.

  5. [Morbidity rate of obesity in children in ukraine. Overweight as noncontagious disease risk factor].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Заболотна, Ірина Е

    The upsurge of prevalence rate of obesity and overweight that in the majority of cases traces back to childhood is a risk factor of the most common noncontagious diseases in adults. The aim was to analyze prevalence of obesity in children in Ukraine and to conduct the pilot study of medical condition of overweight children. Official state statistics of prevalence rate of obesity in kids and screening data of anthropometric characteristics, arterial tension levels, physical performance decrement and medical condition of children (boys - 50, girls - 90, average age - 15,1±0,1 years) was used in research. Data calculation performed by Statistica v. 6.0 software. Over the past few decades, the morbidity rate of obesity in children in Ukraine has greatly increased, especially in year class 15-17. Insufficient diagnosis of obesity in children is the consequence of the inadequacy of the existing system of preventive care and monitoring survey of decease risk factors. Children with body mass index (BMI) above normal have a risk of work decrement in 5,2 times (odds ratio, OR=5,2, CI95%: 1,7-10,6). Such children have higher risk of development of the diseases of the respiratory system (OR=8,1; CI95%: 3,9-13,6) and allergic dermatitis (OR=7,7; CI95%: 3,7-12,9). The odds ratio of arterial hypertension in such children is equal to 3,46±0,3 (95%CI: 2,0-5,9). According to prediction calculations, the situation with the increase of prevalence rate of obesity in children in Ukraine is unfavorable. The introduction of measures aimed at finding children with obesity, their registration and monitoring of patients' health with due regard to decease risk factors at the primary care level would conduce to improving prevention of obesity and prevention of alimentary diseases progression.

  6. Injury rates and injury risk factors among federal bureau of investigation new agent trainees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knapik Joseph J

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A one-year prospective examination of injury rates and injury risk factors was conducted in Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI new agent training. Methods Injury incidents were obtained from medical records and injury compensation forms. Potential injury risk factors were acquired from a lifestyle questionnaire and existing data at the FBI Academy. Results A total of 426 men and 105 women participated in the project. Thirty-five percent of men and 42% of women experienced one or more injuries during training. The injury incidence rate was 2.5 and 3.2 injuries/1,000 person-days for men and women, respectively (risk ratio (women/men = 1.3, 95% confidence interval = 0.9-1.7. The activities most commonly associated with injuries (% of total were defensive tactics training (58%, physical fitness training (20%, physical fitness testing (5%, and firearms training (3%. Among the men, higher injury risk was associated with older age, slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the physical fitness test (PFT, lower self-rated physical activity, lower frequency of aerobic exercise, a prior upper or lower limb injury, and prior foot or knee pain that limited activity. Among the women higher injury risk was associated with slower 300-meter sprint time, slower 1.5-mile run time, lower total points on the PFT, and prior back pain that limited activity. Conclusion The results of this investigation supported those of a previous retrospective investigation emphasizing that lower fitness and self-reported pain limiting activity were associated with higher injury risk among FBI new agents.

  7. University men's ice hockey: rates and risk of injuries over 6-years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rishiraj, N; Lloyd-Smith, R; Lorenz, T; Niven, B; Michel, M

    2009-06-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the injury rates of a Men's Varsity Ice Hockey team over six-years. Data on ice hockey injury rates and profile continue to increase in the hope of assisting with injury prevention. The University of British Columbia Men's Varsity team has been followed prospectively over a six-year period. All student-athletes completed a preseason medical examinations and physiological assessments. The team physician evaluated each injury and the team therapist completed the injury report forms and the attendance records for each player. A total of 46215 player exposures were recorded. The combined injury rate was 3.70 injuries/1000 player game and practice exposures. A statistically significantly higher risk of injury was observed during games and the greatest risk of injury was observed during the second period. Forwards sustained greater percentage of injuries compared to defensemen and goalies. Sprains and strains accounted for 40% of all injuries, followed by concussions (13%). Non-contact injuries were most common, while the anatomy sustaining the most injuries was the head/neck/face region. A high percentage of the recorded injuries required less than seven days to return to full activity. The risk of injury for university ice hockey players is greater during games and is dependant on playing position. Players are prone to sprains and strains, which may not involve any contact. Concussion and knee joint injury rates continue to cause concern.

  8. Association of suicide rates, gun ownership, conservatism and individual suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kposowa, Augustine J

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the association of suicide rates, firearm ownership, political conservatism, religious integration at the state level, and individual suicide risk. Social structural and social learning and social integration theories were theoretical frameworks employed. It was hypothesized that higher suicide rates, higher state firearm availability, and state conservatism elevate individual suicide risk. Data were pooled from the Multiple Cause of Death Files. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to all deaths occurring in 2000 through 2004 by suicide. The state suicide rate significantly elevated individual suicide risk (AOR = 1.042, CI = 1.037, 1.046). Firearm availability at the state level was associated with significantly higher odds of individual suicide (AOR = 1.004, CI = 1.003, 1.006). State political conservatism elevated the odds of individual suicides (AOR = 1.005, CI = 1.003, 1.007), while church membership at the state level reduced individual odds of suicide (AOR = 0.995, CI = 0.993, 0.996). The results held even after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level. It was concluded that the observed association between individual suicide odds and national suicide rates, and firearm ownership cannot be discounted. Future research ought to focus on integrating individual level data and contextual variables when testing for the impact of firearm ownership. Support was found for social learning and social integration theories.

  9. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gestaut, Matthew M., E-mail: Matthew.Gestaut@BSWHealth.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Cai, Wendi [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Vyas, Shilpa [Department of Radiation Oncology, Swedish Cancer Institute, Seattle, Washington (United States); Patel, Belur J. [Department of Urology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); Hasan, Salman A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States); MunozMaldonado, Yolanda [Department of Biostatistics, Baylor Scott and White Health, Temple, Texas (United States); Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory [Department of Radiation Oncology, Baylor Scott and White Memorial Hospital, Texas A& M University School of Medicine, Temple, Texas (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  10. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gestaut, Matthew M.; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J.; Hasan, Salman A.; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with

  11. Self reported rates of criminal offending and victimization in young people at-risk for psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, R; Harrigan, S; Glozier, N; Amminger, G P; Yung, A R

    2015-08-01

    A significant relationship exists between experiencing psychosis and both engaging in criminal offending and being a victim of crime. A substantial proportion of violence and offending occurs during the first episode of psychosis, but it is unclear whether such behaviour is also evident in the earlier pre-psychotic stage of illness. As part of a prospective study of young people who were seeking help for mental health problems, we enquired about participants' experiences of being charged and/or convicted of a criminal offence and being a victim of crime. This paper uses cross-sectional baseline data to compare the rates of these forensic outcomes in participants at-risk of psychosis (n=271) with those not at-risk (n=440). Univariate logistic regression showed that the at-risk for psychosis group was significantly more likely than the not at-risk participants to report having been charged by police (11.1% vs 5.9%; p=.015) and convicted by the courts (4.4% vs. 1.6%; p=0.028) with a non-violent offence, as well as to have been convicted of any criminal offence (6.3% vs. 3.0%; p=0.037). The at-risk were also more likely to report having been a victim of crime (23.7% vs 14.0%; p=.002), particularly violent victimization (16.5% vs 8.2%; p=.001). In multivariate logistic regression analyses, being at-risk for psychosis remained a significant predictor of three of the four outcome measures after controlling for other known covariates such as gender, age, substance misuse and unemployment. This is the first study to demonstrate that, relative to their non-psychotic help-seeking counterparts, young people at-risk for psychosis are at higher risk of forensic outcomes, particularly violent crime victimization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Stroke subtypes, risk factors and mortality rate in northwest of Iran

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farhoudi, Mehdi; Mehrvar, Kaveh; Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun

    2017-01-01

    data, risk factors, types and mortality. Methods: A retrospective study was done in two university tertiary referral hospitals in Tabriz, northwest of Iran, from March 2008 to April 2013. Patients diagnosed with stroke were enrolled in the study. Demographic data, stroke subtypes, duration...... of hospitalization, stroke risk factors and hospital mortality rate were recorded for all the patients. Results: A total number of 5355 patients were evaluated in the present study. Mean age of the patients was 67.5 ± 13.8 years, and 50.6% were men. Final diagnosis of ischemic stroke was made in 76.......5% of the patients, intra-cerebral hemorrhage (ICH) with or without intra-ventricular hemorrhage (IVH) in 14.3% and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in 9.2%. Stroke risk factors among the patients were hypertension in 68.8% of the patients, diabetes mellitus (DM) in 23.9%, smoking in 12.6% and ischemic heart diseases...

  13. 7 CFR Appendix H to Subpart E of... - Suggested Format for the Opinion of the Lender's Legal Counsel

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Suggested Format for the Opinion of the Lender's Legal Counsel H Appendix H to Subpart E of Part 1980 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... Industrial Loan Program Pt. 1980, Subpt. E, App. H Appendix H to Subpart E of Part 1980—Suggested Format for...

  14. 12 CFR 221.119 - Applicability of plan-lender provisions to financing of stock options and stock purchase rights...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... this area. (c) Section 221.4(a) provides that a plan-lender may include a wholly-owned subsidiary of the issuer of the collateral (taking as a whole, corporate groups including subsidiaries and... reasons, permitted the employing corporation to act through a subsidiary or other entity should not be...

  15. 13 CFR 120.463 - Regulatory accounting-What are SBA's regulatory accounting requirements for SBA Supervised Lenders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... experienced in auditing financial institutions. The audit must be performed in accordance with generally accepted auditing standards as adopted by the Auditing Standards Board of the American Institute of... Lender discharges or changes its auditor, it must notify SBA in writing within ten days of the occurrence...

  16. 7 CFR 1779.28 - Transfer of lenders or borrowers (prior to issuance of Loan Note Guarantee).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Transfer of lenders or borrowers (prior to issuance of Loan Note Guarantee). 1779.28 Section 1779.28 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE...

  17. Effects of the Interest Rate and Reserve Requirement Ratio on Bank Risk in China: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongyuan Geng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR model to simulate the effects of the interest rate and reserve requirement ratio on bank risk in China. The results reveal the nonlinearity embedded in the interest rate, reserve requirement ratio, and bank risk nexus. Both the interest rate and reserve requirement ratio exert a positive impact on bank risk for the low regime and a negative impact for the high regime. The interest rate performs a significant effect while the reserve requirement ratio shows an insignificant effect on bank risk on a statistical basis for both the high and low regimes.

  18. Quantification of Gains and Risks of Static Thermal Rating Based on Typical Meteorological Year

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Heckenbergerová, Jana; Musílek, P.; Filimonenkov, K.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2013), s. 227-235 ISSN 0142-0615 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Overhead power transmission lines * Conductor ampacity * Probabilistic static thermal rating * Typical meteorological year * Risk tolerance * Energy throughput Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use Impact factor: 3.432, year: 2012

  19. Associations between heart rate variability, metabolic syndrome risk factors, and insulin resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuckey, Melanie I; Kiviniemi, Antti; Gill, Dawn P; Shoemaker, J Kevin; Petrella, Robert J

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine differences in heart rate variability (HRV) in metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to determine associations between HRV parameters, MetS risk factors, and insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)). Participants (n = 220; aged 23-70 years) were assessed for MetS risk factors (waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and 5-min supine HRV (time and frequency domain and nonlinear). HRV was compared between those with 3 or more (MetS+) and those with 2 or fewer MetS risk factors (MetS-). Multiple linear regression models were built for each HRV parameter to investigate associations with MetS risk factors and HOMA-IR. Data with normal distribution are presented as means ± SD and those without as median [interquartile range]. In women, standard deviation of R-R intervals 38.0 [27.0] ms, 44.5 [29.3] ms; p = 0.020), low-frequency power (5.73 ± 1.06 ln ms(2), 6.13 ± 1.05 ln ms(2); p = 0.022), and the standard deviation of the length of the Poincaré plot (46.8 [31.6] ms, 58.4 [29.9] ms; p = 0.014) were lower and heart rate was higher (68 [13] beats/min, 64 [12] beats/min; p = 0. 018) in MetS+ compared with MetS-, with no differences in men. Waist circumference was most commonly associated with HRV, especially frequency domain parameters. HOMA-IR was associated with heart rate. In conclusion, MetS+ women had a less favourable HRV profile than MetS- women, but there were no differences in men. HOMA-IR was associated with heart rate, not HRV.

  20. Aqueous Drainage Device Erosion: A Review of Rates, Risks, Prevention, and Repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bains, Upneet; Hoguet, Ambika

    2018-01-01

    Aqueous drainage device tube erosions require prompt intervention to prevent endophthalmitis. As the use of drainage devices in glaucoma surgery continues to increase, recognizing and managing tube erosions is a pertinent issue. This review provides a comprehensive overview of tube erosions, including the rates of erosion with various types of patch grafts, the risk factors associated with erosion, and approaches to repair in order to counsel and treat our patients to prevent endophthalmitis.

  1. A nationwide survey of incidence rates and risk factors of inguinal hernia in preterm children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yu-Wei; Pan, Mei-Lien; Hsu, Yao-Jen; Chin, Tai-Wai

    2018-01-01

    Clinical observations showed a higher incidence rate of inguinal hernia (IH) in preterm infants. In this study, we calculated the incidence rate of preterm IH from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan. From NHIRD, 92,308 subjects born in the year of 1997-2005 were randomly selected as the study cohort. The medical claims of these subjects from birth to 6th year of age were analyzed. Preterm births were defined using ICD code 765.1*. Risk factors such as birth weight, lung disorders, and ventilator supports before IH repairs were investigated. The risk of incarceration and bowel resection were also evaluated. From 92,308 subjects, 2560 preterm births were identified. IH was repaired in 231 preterm (9.02%) and 3650 term subjects (4.07%). Male (preterm 13.3% and non-preterm 6.3%) had more hernia repairs than female (preterm 3.8% and non-preterm 1.6%). The incidence rate of IH is 13.7% for those under 1500 g, 8.2% for those 1500-1999 g, 7.7% for those 2000-2499 g, and 6.3% for those above 2500 g. The incidence rate of IH in preterms with past history of lung disorders and ventilation supports is 8.7 and 13.6%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the incidences of incarceration and bowel resection between preterms and non-preterms. Birth weight under 2500 g is a significant risk factor for IH repairs. Other risk factors are male gender, past history of lung diseases, and ventilator supports.

  2. Risk-rating systems for mature red fir and white fir in northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George T. Ferrell

    1980-01-01

    On the basis of crown and bole characteristics, risk-rating systems to predict the probability that a tree will die within 5 years were developed for mature red fir and white fir in northern California. The systems apply to firs at least 10 inches (25.4 cm) in diameter-at-breast-height (d.b.h.), growing in mature stands, with the original overstory at least partially...

  3. Tobacco, Alcohol, and Other Risk Behaviors in Film: How Well Do MPAA Ratings Distinguish Content?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tickle, Jennifer J.; Beach, Michael L.; Dalton, Madeline L.

    2009-01-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of MPAA ratings for parental selection of appropriate films for children, the 100 top grossing movies each year from 1996 through 2004 (N=900) were content analyzed to measure risk behaviors in each film. More restrictive MPAA ratings (R and PG-13) were associated with increased mean seconds of portrayals of tobacco use, alcohol use, and sexual content; increased frequency of violent content; and increased salience of drug use. However, MPAA ratings did not clearly distinguish films based on tobacco or alcohol use. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 124 seconds or more of tobacco use, comparable to 26% of PG-13 and 17% of PG movies. Fifty percent of R-rated movies contained 162 seconds or more of alcohol use, comparable to 49% of PG-13 and 25% of PG movies. Because of the high degree of overlap in alcohol and tobacco content between rating categories, the MPAA rating system, as currently defined, is not adequate for parents who wish to limit their children’s exposure to tobacco or alcohol content in movies. PMID:20029709

  4. Work-related violence against educators in Minnesota: rates and risks based on hours exposed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Chia; Gerberich, Susan G; Alexander, Bruce H; Ryan, Andy D; Nachreiner, Nancy M; Mongin, Steve J

    2013-02-01

    Violence is a major occupational problem; yet, rigorous studies focused on educators to address this problem are limited. The objective was to identify educators' potential risks for physical assault (PA) and nonphysical violence (NPV), based on hours exposed. A total of 4,731 licensed kindergarten through grade 12 Minnesota educators, identified from the Minnesota Department of Education database, participated. Specially designed mailed questionnaires (12-month recall) enabled data collection. Calculated PA and NPV rates, per 100,000 working hours, used Poisson regression. Directed acyclic graphs identified confounders for multivariable analysis, adjusted for non-response and unknown eligibility. The total PA rate was 5.3; PA risks increased for educators who: were non-married versus married; held master's degrees, or education specialist degrees, versus associate/bachelor's degrees; worked in public alternative and various school types, versus public schools; worked as social workers, in special education or multiple activities, versus standard classroom teaching; worked with risks for NPV included: 30-39 and 60-79, versus 50-59years of age; non-married versus married; working in public alternative versus public schools; working part-time or substitute, versus full-time; teaching in special education or multiple activities, versus standard classroom teaching; teaching in class sizes risks for violence against educators, based on hours worked. In addition, they provided a basis for further investigations to reduce violence against educators in the school environment. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Analytical Hierarchy Process for Developing a Building Performance-Risk Rating Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalil Natasha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The need to optimize the performance of buildings has increased consequently due to the expansive supply of facilities in higher education building (HEB. Proper performance assessment as a proactive measure may help university building in achieving performance optimization. However, the current maintenance programs or performance evaluation in the HEB is a systemic and cyclic process where maintenance is considered as an operational issue and not as opposed to a strategic issue. Hence, this paper proposed a Building Performance Risk Rating Tool (BPRT as an improved measure for building performance evaluation by addressing the users' risk in health and safety aspects. The BPRT is developed from the result of a rating index using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP method. 12 facilities management (FM experts and practitioners were involved in the rating process. The subjective weightings are analysed using the AHP computer software, the Expert Choice 11. The establishment of the BPRT was introduced as an aid of improvement towards the current performance assessment of HEB by emerging the concept of building performance and risk into a numerical strategic approach

  6. 13 CFR 120.214 - What conditions apply for variable interest rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... interest rates? 120.214 Section 120.214 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Policies Specific to 7(a) Loans Maturities; Interest Rates; Loan and Guarantee Amounts § 120.214 What conditions apply for variable interest rates? A Lender may use a variable rate of interest...

  7. Low mortality rates after endovascular aortic repair expand use to high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkar, Shaunak S; Turner, Megan C; Leraas, Harold J; Gilmore, Brian F; Nag, Uttara; Turley, Ryan S; Shortell, Cynthia K; Mureebe, Leila

    2018-02-01

    The 2010 endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) trial 2 (EVAR 2) reported that patients with comorbidity profiles rendering them unfit for open aneurysm repair who underwent EVAR did not experience a survival advantage compared with those who did not undergo intervention. These patients experienced a 30-day mortality of 7.3%, whereas reports from similar cohorts reported far lower mortality rates. The primary objective of our study was to compare the incidence of 30-day mortality in low- and high-risk patients undergoing EVAR in a contemporary data set, using patient risk stratification criteria from EVAR 2. Secondarily, we sought to identify risk factors associated with a disproportionate contribution to 30-day mortality risk. Data were obtained from the 2005 to 2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use Data Files (N = 24,813). Patients were included in the high-risk cohort with the presence of renal, respiratory, or cardiac preoperative criteria alone or in combination. Renal impairment criteria were defined as dialysis and creatinine concentration >2.26 mg/dL. Respiratory impairment criteria included history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and preoperative ventilator support. Cardiac impairment criteria included history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, angina, and prior coronary intervention. Patient and procedural characteristics and 30-day postoperative outcomes were compared using Pearson χ 2 tests for categorical variables and Wilcoxon rank sum tests for continuous variables. Among 24,813 patients undergoing EVAR, 12,043 (48%) patients were characterized as high risk (at least one impairment criterion); 12,770 (52%) patients were stratified as low risk. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.9% in the high-risk cohort compared with the 7.3% reported by EVAR 2, and it was higher in the high-risk cohort compared with the low-risk cohort (1.9% vs 0.9%; P < .001). Whereas the

  8. Analyse of the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism in the patients with dyspnea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yanxia; Su Jian; Wang Bingsheng; Wu Songhong; Dai Ruiting; Cao Caixia

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with dyspnea and to explore the predisposing causes and its early clinical manifestations. Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 461 patients with dyspnea performed 99 Tc m -macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion imaging and 99 Tc m -DTPA ventilation imaging or 99 Tc m -MAA perfusion imaging and chest X-ray examination. Among them, 48 cases without apparent disease were considered as control group, whereas the remaining patients with other underlying illnesses as patients group. PEMS statistics software package was used for estimation of prevalence rate, χ 2 test and PE risk factor analysis. Results: There were 251 PE patients among 461 patients, the prevalence rate [ (π)=95% confidence interval (CI) ] was: lower extremity thrombosis and varicosity (80.79-95.47 ), post cesarean section (55.64-87.12), lower extremity bone surgery or fracture (52.76-87.27 ), cancer operation (52.19-78.19), atrial fibrillation or heart failure (53.30-74.88), obesity (23.14-50.20), post abdominal surgery (20.23-59.43), diabetes (19.12-63.95), chronic bronchitis (1.80-23.06), normal control group (3.47-22.66). Except chronic bronchitis, PE prevalence rate between patients group and control group had significant difference (P 99 Tc m -MAA and DTPA lung imaging should be done as early as possible. (authors)

  9. Increased fracture rate in women with breast cancer: a review of the hidden risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Body Jean-Jacques

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Women with breast cancer, particularly individuals diagnosed at a relatively early age, have an increased incidence of fractures. Fractures can have serious clinical consequences including the need for major surgery, increased morbidity and mortality, increased cost of disease management, and reduced quality of life for patients. The primary cause of the increased fracture risk appears to be an accelerated decrease in bone mineral density (BMD resulting from the loss of estrogenic signaling that occurs with most treatments for breast cancer, including aromatase inhibitors. However, factors other than BMD levels alone may influence treatment decisions to reduce fracture risk in this setting. Our purpose is to review current evidence for BMD loss and fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer and discuss pharmacologic means to reduce this risk. Results Fracture risk during treatment for breast cancer may be influenced by the rate of BMD loss and the consequent rapid alterations in bone microarchitecture, in addition to the established fracture risk factors in postmenopausal osteoporosis. The rapid decrease in BMD during adjuvant chemoendocrine therapy for breast cancer may necessitate more aggressive pharmacotherapy than is indicated for healthy postmenopausal women who develop osteoporosis. Over the last few years, clinical trials have established the effectiveness of bisphosphonates and other antiresorptive agents to preserve BMD during adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer. In addition, some bisphosphonates (eg, zoledronic acid may also delay disease recurrence in women with hormone-responsive tumors, thereby providing an adjuvant benefit in addition to preserving BMD and potentially preventing fractures. Conclusions It is likely that a combined fracture risk assessment (eg, as in the WHO FRAX algorithm will more accurately identify both women with postmenopausal osteoporosis and women with breast cancer who require

  10. Risk Factors for Reduced Salivary Flow Rate in a Japanese Population: The Hisayama Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenji Takeuchi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine distinct risk factors causing reduced salivary flow rate in a community-dwelling population using a prospective cohort study design. This was a 5-year follow-up survey of 1,377 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged ≥40 years. The salivary flow rate was evaluated at baseline and follow-up by collecting stimulated saliva. Data on demographic characteristics, use of medication, and general and oral health status were obtained at baseline. The relationship between reduced salivary flow rate during the follow-up period and its predictors was evaluated after adjustment for confounding factors. In a multivariate logistic regression model, higher age and plaque score and lower serum albumin levels were significantly associated with greater odds of an obvious reduction in salivary flow rate (age per decade, odds ratio [OR] = 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03–1.51; serum albumin levels <4 g/dL, OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.04–2.46; plaque score ≥1, OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.04–2.24. In a multivariate linear regression model, age and plaque score remained independently associated with the increased rate of reduced salivary flow. These results suggest that aging and plaque score are important predictors of reduced salivary flow rate in Japanese adults.

  11. Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gestaut, Matthew M; Cai, Wendi; Vyas, Shilpa; Patel, Belur J; Hasan, Salman A; MunozMaldonado, Yolanda; Deb, Niloyjyoti; Swanson, Gregory

    2017-05-01

    Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (Pcryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (Pcryotherapy patients was -35°C (range, -96°C to -6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patient selection criteria for consideration of cryotherapy and brachytherapy are similar in terms of anesthesia candidacy. Therefore, cryotherapy would not be recommended as a first-line local therapy for this particular

  12. Rates and risks of gastrostomy tubes in infants with cleft palate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cu, Sharon R; Sidman, James D

    2011-03-01

    To review data on a cohort of infants with cleft palate to (1) determine rates of gastrostomy (G)-tube placement, (2) identify contributing comorbidities, and (3) use relative risk analyses to improve management of cleft palate in infants with feeding difficulty. Retrospective medical record review. Tertiary care children's hospital. Infants with cleft palate born between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2008, without G-tubes prior to referral were included. Comorbidities were analyzed, including syndromes and chromosomopathies (syn/chrom) and cardiac, respiratory, neurologic, and gastrointestinal diagnoses. These comorbidities were analyzed independently. Gastrostomy-tube placement. Of 214 infants with cleft palate, 34 required G-tubes. Of these, 19 had syn/chrom. Independent of these diagnoses, 17 infants had 1 system comorbidity and 12 had multisystem comorbidities. Of the 180 patients without G-tubes, 20 had syn/chrom. Independent of these diagnoses, 10 infants had 1 system comorbidity and 2 had multisystem comorbidities. Rates of G-tube placement ranged from 3% in infants without any comorbidity to 94% in infants with respiratory comorbidity. Relative risks of G-tube placement with syn/chrom, 1 system comorbidity, and multisystem comorbidities were 5.68 (95% confidence interval, 3.18-10.16), 21.79 (8.76-54.17), and 29.66 (12.18-72.21), respectively. Diagnosis of syn/chrom or major comorbidity significantly increases risk of G-tube placement. Regardless of syn/chrom association, problems affecting the heart, respiratory system, central nervous system, and lower esophageal sphincter are the most significant risk factors, implying that particular comorbidities are more influential than a simple diagnosis of syn/chrom. These data should help identify children at greatest risk for G-tubes and those expected to overcome feeding difficulties, leading to more persistent use of nonsurgical therapy before resorting to G-tubes.

  13. Credit Risk and Financial Performance Assessment of Illinois Farmers: A Comparison of Approaches with Farm Accounting Data

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Tianwei; Ellinger, Paul N.

    2006-01-01

    Pro forma financial performance evaluation of agricultural producers is an important issue for lenders, internal management and policy makers. Lenders strive to improve their credit risk management. Internal management is interested in understanding the financial impacts of alternative strategic decisions. And policy makers often assess the magnitude and distributional effects of alternative policies on the future financial performance of farm business. Data limitations are a major impediment...

  14. Homicide mortality rates in Canada, 2000-2009: Youth at increased risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basham, C Andrew; Snider, Carolyn

    2016-10-20

    To estimate and compare Canadian homicide mortality rates (HMRs) and trends in HMRs across age groups, with a focus on trends for youth. Data for the period of 2000 to 2009 were collected from Statistics Canada's CANSIM (Canadian Statistical Information Management) Table 102-0540 with the following ICD-10-CA coded external causes of death: X85 to Y09 (assault) and Y87.1 (sequelae of assault). Annual population counts from 2000 to 2009 were obtained from Statistics Canada's CANSIM Table 051-0001. Both death and population counts were organized into five-year age groups. A random effects negative binomial regression analysis was conducted to estimate age group-specific rates, rate ratios, and trends in homicide mortality. There were 9,878 homicide deaths in Canada during the study period. The increase in the overall homicide mortality rate (HMR) of 0.3% per year was not statistically significant (95% CI: -1.1% to +1.8%). Canadians aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years had the highest HMRs during the study period, and experienced statistically significant annual increases in their HMRs of 3% and 4% respectively (p < 0.05). A general, though not statistically significant, decrease in the HMR was observed for all age groups 50+ years. A fixed effects negative binomial regression model showed that the HMR for males was higher than for females over the study period [RRfemale/male = 0.473 (95% CI: 0.361, 0.621)], but no significant difference in sex-specific trends in the HMR was found. An increasing risk of homicide mortality was identified among Canadian youth, ages 15-24, over the 10-year study period. Research that seeks to understand the reasons for the increased homicide risk facing Canada's youth, and public policy responses to reduce this risk, are warranted.

  15. TARGET2 Imbalances and the ECB as Lender of Last Resort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Purificato

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the issue of the dynamics of the TARGET2 system balances during the sovereign debt crisis, when some countries registered a decisive inflow of the central bank liquidity and others showed an outflow. The dynamics in the TARGET2 are here explained as being due to a fall in the level of confidence in the capacity of the Economic and Monetary Union to survive, rather than to disparities in the level of competitiveness among countries of the Eurozone. This crisis of confidence has to be considered as the consequence of the implicit refusal of the European institutions to create a mechanism working as lender of last resort for the euro area member States; indeed, only when the ECB took this responsibility by launching the Outright Monetary Transactions clear signs of improvement were observed in the sovereign debt crisis.

  16. 77 FR 67433 - Community Advantage Pilot Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-09

    ... market loan sales create a direct risk to SBA. The total cash reserve required for CA Lenders needs to be... projected purchase rates, and risk rating for each lender. OCRM will also review compliance with the cash..., Office of Credit Risk Management, discretion to suspend secondary market authority for any CA Lender...

  17. Neural Network for Determining Risk Rate of Post-Heart Stroke Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Trenz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ischemic heart disease presents an important health problem that affects a great part of the population and is the cause of one third of all deaths in the Czech Republic. The availability of data describing the patients’ prognosis enables their further analysis, with the aim of lowering the patients’ risk, by proposing optimum treatment. The main reason for creating the neural network model is not only to automate the process of establishing the risk rate of patients suffering from ischemic heart disease, but also to adapt it for practical use in clinical conditions. Our aim is to identify especially the specific group of risk-rate patients whose well-timed preventive care can improve the quality and prolong the length of their lives.The aim of the paper is to propose a patient-parameter structure, using which we could create a suitable model based on a self-taught neural network. The emphasis is placed on identifying key descriptive parameters (in the form of a reduction of the available descriptive parameters that are crucial for identifying the required patients, and simultaneously to achieve a portability of the model among individual clinical workplaces (availability of parameters.

  18. Semiparametric accelerated failure time cure rate mixture models with competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sangbum; Zhu, Liang; Huang, Xuelin

    2018-01-15

    Modern medical treatments have substantially improved survival rates for many chronic diseases and have generated considerable interest in developing cure fraction models for survival data with a non-ignorable cured proportion. Statistical analysis of such data may be further complicated by competing risks that involve multiple types of endpoints. Regression analysis of competing risks is typically undertaken via a proportional hazards model adapted on cause-specific hazard or subdistribution hazard. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that treats competing events as distinct outcomes in a mixture. We consider semiparametric accelerated failure time models for the cause-conditional survival function that are combined through a multinomial logistic model within the cure-mixture modeling framework. The cure-mixture approach to competing risks provides a means to determine the overall effect of a treatment and insights into how this treatment modifies the components of the mixture in the presence of a cure fraction. The regression and nonparametric parameters are estimated by a nonparametric kernel-based maximum likelihood estimation method. Variance estimation is achieved through resampling methods for the kernel-smoothed likelihood function. Simulation studies show that the procedures work well in practical settings. Application to a sarcoma study demonstrates the use of the proposed method for competing risk data with a cure fraction. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial risk is defined as “variability of result indicators, under the incidence of financial structure of the company” . It is established by “the financing policy of the company, by equity or loans”. The financial risk results by the structure of the company shareholding or by the use method of financial instruments. The financial risks result by different sources, including changes of the interest rate, currency trades, expansions of lending operations, issuance of shares, as well as the use of derived financial instruments (IFD.

  20. THE MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT RISK ACCORDING TO INTERNAL RATINGS- BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOLOCAN DRAGOS-MIHAIL

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The internal ratings based approach (IRB Approach was created as part of Basel II replacing the original Basle Accord of 1988 (Basle I in an effort to create a better framework for regulating bank capital. This paper covers the methodology and components of the IRB Approach used to determine capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies heavily upon a banks internal assessment of its counterparties and exposures, can secure two key objectives consistent with those which support the wider review of The New Basel Capital Accord.. IRB approach should promote safety and soundness in the financial system and, consistent with providing incentive compatibility, that the structure and requirements of the IRB approach do not impinge upon or undermine banks well-established lending and credit risk management practices

  1. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  2. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  3. Heart rate variability regression and risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galli, Alessio; Lombardi, Federico

    2017-02-01

    The exact mechanisms of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy remain elusive, despite there is consensus that SUDEP is associated with severe derangements in the autonomic control to vital functions as breathing and heart rate regulation. Heart rate variability (HRV) has been advocated as biomarker of autonomic control to the heart. Cardiac dysautonomia has been found in diseases where other branches of the autonomous nervous system are damaged, as Parkinson disease and multiple system atrophy. In this perspective, an impaired HRV not only is a risk factor for sudden cardiac death mediated by arrhythmias, but also a potential biomarker for monitoring a progressive decline of the autonomous nervous system. This slope may lead to an acute imbalance of the regulatory pathways of vital functions after seizure and then to SUDEP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk factors for breast cancer in a population with high incidence rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrensch, Margaret; Peskin-Mentzer, Roni; Quesenberry, Charles P Jr; Souders-Mason, Virginia; Spence, Linda; Suzuki, Marisa; Gould, Mary; Chew, Terri; Farren, Georgianna; Barlow, Janice; Belli, Flavia; Clarke, Christina; Erdmann, Christine A; Lee, Marion; Moghadassi, Michelle

    2003-01-01

    This report examines generally recognized breast cancer risk factors and years of residence in Marin County, California, an area with high breast cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eligible women who were residents of Marin County diagnosed with breast cancer in 1997–99 and women without breast cancer obtained through random digit dialing, frequency-matched by cases' age at diagnosis and ethnicity, participated in either full in-person or abbreviated telephone interviews. In multivariate analyses, 285 cases were statistically significantly more likely than 286 controls to report being premenopausal, never to have used birth control pills, a lower highest lifetime body mass index, four or more mammograms in 1990–94, beginning drinking after the age of 21, on average drinking two or more drinks per day, the highest quartile of pack-years of cigarette smoking and having been raised in an organized religion. Cases and controls did not significantly differ with regard to having a first-degree relative with breast cancer, a history of benign breast biopsy, previous radiation treatment, age at menarche, parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, age of first living in Marin County, or total years lived in Marin County. Results for several factors differed for women aged under 50 years or 50 years and over. Despite similar distributions of several known breast cancer risk factors, case-control differences in alcohol consumption suggest that risk in this high-risk population might be modifiable. Intensive study of this or other areas of similarly high incidence might reveal other important risk factors proximate to diagnosis

  5. Association among salivary flow rate, caries risk and nutritional status in pre-schoolers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Patricia N; Martínez Reinoso, Josefina; Gamba, Carlota A; Salgado, Pablo A; Mateo, María Teresa; Manto, María del Carmen; Molgatini, Susana L; Iglesias, Verónica; Argentieri, Ángela B

    2015-01-01

    Modeer T. et al.(2011) claim that there is association between decreased salivary flow rate and caries in obese adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the association among nutritional status, salivary flow rate and caries risk in preschoolers. The study comprised 60 children aged 3 to 6 years attending kindergartens in areas immediately adjacent to Buenos Aires City, Argentina. Body weight and height of the children were determined. Body mass index was calculated and the population was classified anthropometrically according to the WHO 2007 (WHO Anthro. Program). Caries risk was determined. Saliva was collected in sterile graduated widemouth containers, without stimulation and without food restrictions. Salivary flow rate (SFR) was determined. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's test. It was found that 56.7% (IC95%: 37.7-74.0) of anthropometrically adequate children (Ad) and 37.0% (IC95%: 20.1-57.5) of overweight and obese children (OW/Ob) had caries. The odds ratio for caries (OR=3.78; IC95%: 1.2-11.8, p=0.02) was almost 4 times higher in adequate children than in the others. SFR was 0.534 0.318 ml/min in Ad and 0.439 } 0.234 ml/min in OW/Ob. Pearson's test showed no correlation between SFR and nutritional status (r= 0.004592, p= 0.5977). Although the presence of caries was lower in overweight and obese children, no correlation was found between nutritional status and salivary flow rate.

  6. Brain atrophy rates in first degree relatives at risk for Alzheimer's

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika J. Lampert

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A positive family history (FH raises the risk for late-onset Alzheimer's disease though, other than the known risk conferred by apolipoprotein ε4 (ApoE4, much of the genetic variance remains unexplained. We examined the effect of family history on longitudinal regional brain atrophy rates in 184 subjects (42% FH+, mean age 79.9 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI enrolled in a national biomarker study. An automated image analysis method was applied to T1-weighted MR images to measure atrophy rates for 20 cortical and subcortical regions. Mixed-effects linear regression models incorporating repeated-measures to control for within-subject variation over multiple time points tested the effect of FH over a follow-up of up to 48 months. Most of the 20 regions showed significant atrophy over time. Adjusting for age and gender, subjects with a positive FH had greater atrophy of the amygdala (p < 0.01, entorhinal cortex (p < 0.01, hippocampus (p < 0.053 and cortical gray matter (p < 0.009. However, when E4 genotype was added as a covariate, none of the FH effects remained significant. Analyses by ApoE genotype showed that the effect of FH on amygdala atrophy rates was numerically greater in ε3 homozygotes than in E4 carriers, but this difference was not significant. FH+ subjects had numerically greater 4-year cognitive decline and conversion rates than FH− subjects but the difference was not statistically significant after adjusting for ApoE and other variables. We conclude that a positive family history of AD may influence cortical and temporal lobe atrophy in subjects with mild cognitive impairment, but it does not have a significant additional effect beyond the known effect of the E4 genotype.

  7. Physiological daily inhalation rates for health risk assessment in overweight/obese children, adults, and elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brochu, Pierre; Bouchard, Michèle; Haddad, Sami

    2014-03-01

    Physiological daily inhalation rates reported in our previous study for normal-weight subjects 2.6-96 years old were compared to inhalation data determined in free-living overweight/obese individuals (n = 661) aged 5-96 years. Inhalation rates were also calculated in normal-weight (n = 408), overweight (n = 225), and obese classes 1, 2, and 3 adults (n = 134) aged 20-96 years. These inhalation values were based on published indirect calorimetry measurements (n = 1,069) and disappearance rates of oral doses of water isotopes (i.e., (2)H2 O and H2 (18)O) monitored by gas isotope ratio mass spectrometry usually in urine samples for an aggregate period of over 16,000 days. Ventilatory equivalents for overweight/obese subjects at rest and during their aggregate daytime activities (28.99 ± 6.03 L to 34.82 ± 8.22 L of air inhaled/L of oxygen consumed; mean ± SD) were determined and used for calculations of inhalation rates. The interindividual variability factor calculated as the ratio of the highest 99th percentile to the lowest 1st percentile of daily inhalation rates is higher for absolute data expressed in m3 /day (26.7) compared to those of data in m3/kg-day (12.2) and m3/m2-day (5.9). Higher absolute rates generally found in overweight/obese individuals compared to their normal-weight counterparts suggest higher intakes of air pollutants (in μg/day) for the former compared to the latter during identical exposure concentrations and conditions. Highest absolute mean (24.57 m3/day) and 99th percentile (55.55 m3 /day) values were found in obese class 2 adults. They inhale on average 8.21 m3 more air per day than normal-weight adults. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Risk factors in oil and gas lending

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.; Kipp, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that with the increasing internationalization of the petroleum industry, lenders to the industry must understand and overcome several new credit risk factors. As a result, new financial products are now available to reserve-based borrowers. Traditional project financing now also may include futures hedging, swaps, and collar elements

  9. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  10. Evaluation of Survival Rate and Pattern of Risk Factors and Recurrence Rate in Patients with Triple-Negative Breast Cancer with other Subtypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mohammad Reza Mortazavizadeh

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Breast cancer nowadays is one the major health issue especially in industrial population. Despite excessive researches in this regard, there is still no detailed and relevant information on the association between the risk factors of this cancer and its many outcomes. Due to increasing rate of breast cancer in Iran, including Yazd city, the present study was designed to evaluate the relationship between survival and recurrence rate with pattern of risk factors in breast cancer patients. Methods: This analytical study was conducted retrospectively on 333 patients with breast cancer during 8 years (2005-2013. Total survival and recurrence rates recorded in month for all samples, and then were analyzed and compared other obtained data. Chi-square and log rank were selected tests for analyzing and Kaplan-Meier was applicable curve for survival analyzing. Results: The mean age of subjects was 57.02 ± 12.32 years. The mean total survival rate was 93.15 ± 1.25 months (97.9%. The mean total recurrence rate was 84.59 ± 1.91 months (89.8%. The subgroups of breast cancer had no significant relationship with risk factors (P>0.05 though BMI and recurrence rate had significant relationship (P=0.045. Other risk factors had no significant relationship with total survival and recurrence rates. The mean duration of OCP (oral contraceptive pill consumption was significantly more in the patients with ER-PR-Her2+ subgroup than other groups (P=0.03.   Conclusion: According the findings, BMI lower than 25 is strong prognostic factor for recurrence rate in patients with triple-negative breast cancer. Because of high survival rate of patients with breast cancer during eight years, it is recommended to study on high survival period with larger sample sizes for accessing reliable evidence.

  11. THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED BANK RATING ON BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION OF BANKS IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evi Sistiyarini

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The increase of banking products and services which is more complex will increase the risk to the banks. Therefore, to anticipate the rise of financial difficulties in a bank, the early warning system. This study aimed to find the influence RBBR (Risk Based Bank Rating ratio’s to predict bankruptcy of conventional Banks in Indonesia. Ratio of RBBR consisted of risk profile, Good Corporate Governance, profitability and capital. Independent variables used were NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CAR. Dependent variable was bank bankruptcy using dummy variable. The population of this study was all of the conventional banks in Indonesia. The data was a secondary data taken form financial report of conventional bank 2011-2015. Technical sampling used was a purposive sampling method with some criteria. The analysis of this study used logistic regression.The result of the study showed that NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CARhad no significant influence to bankruptcy of the bank.

  12. Refugee, asylum seeker, immigrant women and postnatal depression: rates and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Catherine H; Zimmerman, Cathy; Howard, Louise M

    2011-02-01

    Postnatal depression (PND) is recognised as a common maternal health problem, but little evidence examines PND among refugee, asylum seeker and immigrant women in developed country settings. This review aimed to identify the rates of PND and highlight common risk factors among this group of women. An iterative and dynamic literature search was conducted across ten databases to identify published articles on PND among immigrant, asylum-seeking and refugee women in developed country settings. Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) and 'free text' search terms, as well as thesaurus terms, acronyms and truncation were used where appropriate. Findings suggest that PND may affect up to 42% of migrant women, compared to around 10-15% of native-born women. Common risk factors for PND among migrant women include history of stressful life events, lack of social support and cultural factors. With a growing number of babies born to immigrant mothers, greater awareness of PND among this group is needed in order to respond to their particular maternal mental health needs. Maternity care providers should regard all recent immigrants as at high risk of PND and give closer observation and support as necessary.

  13. Rates of fetal polydrug exposures in methadone-maintained pregnancies from a high-risk population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaitlyn Delano

    Full Text Available Methadone maintenance treatment (MMT is the standard of care during pregnancy for opioid-dependency, showing efficacy in improving prenatal care and reducing risk of relapse. By design, however, MMT is only intended to prevent withdrawal thus facilitating cognitive behavioural interventions. In order to maximize the benefits of MMT, it is essential that methadone is both properly prescribed and that additional addiction treatment is concurrently administered. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of MMT engagement in high-risk pregnant women in reducing polydrug use by objective laboratory examination of neonatal meconium.Over a 29-month period, the Motherisk Laboratory at the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto analyzed meconium samples as per request by social services and hospitals for drugs of abuse.Of the 904 meconium samples received, 273 were tested for methadone with 164 positive and 109 negative for methadone. Almost half of the methadone positive samples (46.34% were also positive for at least one other opioid compound, which did not differ statistically from the methadone-negative control samples (46.79%; Chi square test, p=0.94. No differences were found between the methadone positive and negative groups in rates of concurrent amphetamines, cocaine, cannabis, and alcohol use indicating a similar risk of polydrug use between pregnant women taking or not taking methadone in this population.The high rates of additional opioid and other drug use in the MMT group, suggest that MMT is failing this population of patients. It is possible that methadone doses during pregnancy are not appropriately adjusted for changes in pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g. blood volume, renal function during the second and third trimesters. This may result in sub-therapeutic dosing creating withdrawal symptoms leading to additional substance use. Alternatively, these results may be demonstrating a substantial lack in delivery of addiction support

  14. Rates and risks for prolonged grief disorder in a sample of orphaned and widowed genocide survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Susanne; Jacob, Nadja; Dusingizemungu, Jean-Pierre; Elbert, Thomas

    2010-07-06

    The concept of Prolonged Grief Disorder (PGD) has been defined in recent years by Prigerson and co-workers, who have developed and empirically tested consensus and diagnostic criteria for PGD. Using these most recent criteria defining PGD, the aim of this study was to determine rates of and risks for PGD in survivors of the 1994 Rwandan genocide who had lost a parent and/or the husband before, during or after the 1994 events. The PG-13 was administered to 206 orphans or half orphans and to 194 widows. A regression analysis was carried out to examine risk factors of PGD. 8.0% (n = 32) of the sample met criteria for PGD with an average of 12 years post-loss. All but one person had faced multiple losses and the majority indicated that their grief-related loss was due to violent death (70%). Grief was predicted mainly by time since the loss, by the violent nature of the loss, the severity of symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and the importance given to religious/spiritual beliefs. By contrast, gender, age at the time of bereavement, bereavement status (widow versus orphan), the number of different types of losses reported and participation in the funeral ceremony did not impact the severity of prolonged grief reactions. A significant portion of the interviewed sample continues to experience grief over interpersonal losses and unresolved grief may endure over time if not addressed by clinical intervention. Severity of grief reactions may be associated with a set of distinct risk factors. Subjects who lose someone through violent death seem to be at special risk as they have to deal with the loss experience as such and the traumatic aspects of the loss. Symptoms of PTSD may hinder the completion of the mourning process. Religious beliefs may facilitate the mourning process and help to find meaning in the loss. These aspects need to be considered in the treatment of PGD.

  15. Insignificant risk at low dose (rate) radiation predicted by cytogenetic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayata, I.

    2000-01-01

    Effect of low dose radiation on health is a matter of importance in the field of radiation protection. We discuss it based on the cytogenetic studies in literature and on our study on the residents in the high background radiation area in the south of China. Dicentrics (unstable type chromosome aberration) are the very sensitive indicator of radiation exposure. Increase of their incidence can be detected at 2 cGy acute gamma irradiation. Dicentrics are not directly related to the causation of malignant or genetic diseases, because they are eliminated from the body through cell division. On the other hand, translocations (stable type chromosome aberration) are not lost by cell division and therefore they have potential risk of causing malignant or genetic diseases. Dicentrics and translocations are induced at the same rate by radiation. The finding of the excess incidence of dicentrics among the radiation workers has been sensationally reported in the journals or newspapers. Recently it has become possible to analyze translocations in a short time by so called 'chromosome painting methods' using in situ DNA hybridization technique. It has been revealed by this method that the frequency of translocation increases dramatically with age in the middle-aged and old people who are non-radiation workers. According to experimental studies the induction rate of dicentrics (or translocations) by gamma ray is about 2 in 10000 human lymphocytes per cGy. If the average dose people were exposed to could be 0.24 cGy per year (2.4 mSv per year: according to UNSCEAR report 1988), the accumulated dose at 60 years old could be 14.4 cGy. This would lead to make 3.88 translocations in 1000 lymphocytes. However, studies show that the rate of translocations in the lymphocytes of such elderly people is over 2 to 3 times higher than this predicted rate and its individual variation is extremely wide. That means, in usual environment, chromosome aberrations induced by metabolic factors and

  16. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system in Ireland: methods and response rates

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Keeffe, Linda M.

    2014-06-01

    To describe response rates and characteristics associated with response to the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System study in Ireland (PRAMS Ireland). Using hospital discharge records of live births at a large, urban, obstetric hospital, a sampling frame of approximately 2,400 mother-infant pairs were used to alternately sample 1,200 women. Mothers’ information including name, address, parity, age and infant characteristics such as sex and gestational age at delivery were extracted from records. Modes of contact included an invitation letter with option to opt out of the study, three mail surveys, a reminder letter and text message reminder for remaining non-respondents. Sixty-one per cent of women responded to the PRAMS Ireland survey over a 133 day response period. Women aged <30, single women, multiparous women and women with a preterm delivery were less likely to respond. Women participating in PRAMS Ireland were similar to the national birth profile in 2011 which had a mean age of 32, were 40 % primiparous, 33 % single or never married and had a 28 % caesarean section rate. Survey and protocol changes are required to increase response rates above recommended Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) thresholds of 65 % within the recommended 90 day data collection cycle. Additional efforts such as stratification and over-sampling are required to increase representativeness among hard to reach groups such as younger, single and multiparous women before expanding the project to an ongoing, national surveillance system in Ireland.

  17. Water requirements and drinking rates of homing pigeons: A consideration for exposure risk of migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Cristina R; Moye, John K; Pritsos, Chris A

    2017-09-01

    Access to water along a bird's migratory flyway is essential during the vital process of migration. Because of the scarcity of water in some environments, there is potential for migratory birds to encounter and drink from contaminated bodies of water. Ingestion of contaminated water may cause injury and compromise flying ability, leading to a disruption of migration. To determine injury to birds from potential exposure, it is essential to know not only the concentration of a given contaminant in the water but also the quantity and rate of water consumption by the birds. Homing pigeons (Columba livia) were used in a series of experiments to determine differences in drinking behavior after various flights and after periods of resting. Results from the present study demonstrate that homing pigeons' water consumption is dramatically different when assessed according to activity, flight distance, and time elapsed after flight. This suggests that the drinking rates of birds during migration are extremely important and much greater than estimated using traditional exposure assessment procedures. Thus, exposure to contaminants via drinking water may be greatly underestimated, and the rate of water consumption should be considered when estimating potential exposure risk to avian species. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:870-876. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  18. 25 CFR 103.38 - Is there anything else for BIA or the lender to do after BIA makes payment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Is there anything else for BIA or the lender to do after BIA makes payment? 103.38 Section 103.38 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES LOAN GUARANTY, INSURANCE, AND INTEREST SUBSIDY Default and Payment by BIA § 103.38 Is there anything else for BIA or the lende...

  19. Penilaian Tingkat Kesehatan Bank Dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Risiko (Risk-Based Bank Rating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masnawati .

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This  study  aimed  to  analyze  techniques  of  the  bank’s  health  assessment  and determine  which  strategies  should  be  done  in  order  to  improve  the  health  of the bank. The method used is the approach of Risk (Risk Based-Bank Rating in accordance with Bank Indonesia Regulation on Rating Bank that PBI Number: 13/1/PBI/2011  which  entered  into  force  on  January  1,  2012.  Bank  health assessment  performed  using  four  (4  factors:  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate Governance (GCG, Earning, and Capital. Object  of  this  study  is  PT.  Bank  Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan period  2012.  The  results  showed  that  the  health  of  banks  in  PT.  Bank Pembangunan  Daerah  Kalimantan  Selatan  getting  ranked  2,  meaning  can be  categorized  good.  Strategies  to  improve  the  health  value  of  a  bank  is  to improve aspects of Earnings and Capital. Strategis Steps that must to increase credit expansion, improve the quality and quantity of human resources, product innovation, and increase fee-based income. Keywords: Healthy  banks,  Risk  Profile,  Good  Corporate  Governance  (GCG,  Earnings, Capital

  20. An Investigation of the Mortality Rate and Risk Factors in Newborn Infants With Meconium Aspiration Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabzehei

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background One of the serious challenges facing neonatal medicine is meconium aspiration syndrome, delays in the treatment of which can lead to high mortality. Objectives This study was designed and conducted with the aim of determining the mortality rate and risk factors affecting this rate in newborn infants with meconium aspiration syndrome. Methods This study was conducted as a retrospective descriptive research on newborn infants with meconium aspiration syndrome hospitalized at the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU of Fatemieh and Be’sat hospitals in Hamadan city during a 10-year period from 2004 to 2014. Demographic information of the mother and the newborn, hospitalization course, the need for mechanical ventilation, and complications and outcomes of disease were extracted and were analyzed using the SPSS software version 22. Results Sixty-three newborn infants, diagnosed with meconium aspiration syndrome, were entered in this study, 40% of them were male, 85.7% wighed more than 2500 g, and 17.5% were post term, 25.3% had a five-minute Apgar Score (AS5min of less than seven, 39.6% were nonvigorous at birth, 31.8% needed to be placed on mechanical ventilation, and 14.3% died during the hospitalization course. There was a significant relationship between the need for mechanical ventilation, nonvigorous state at the birth, complications of disease and mortality rate. Conclusions Despite the progress made in medicine, meconium aspiration syndrome is still one of the causes of newborn infants’ mortality. The mortality and morbidity rates can be reduced by improvement in perinatal care, prevention of post term delivery, timely caesarean and effective neonatal resuscitation at birth.

  1. A multi-region assessment of population rates of cardiac catheterization and yield of high-risk coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Fiona M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is variation in cardiac catheterization utilization across jurisdictions. Previous work from Alberta, Canada, showed no evidence of a plateau in the yield of high-risk disease at cardiac catheterization rates as high as 600 per 100,000 population suggesting that the optimal rate is higher. This work aims 1 To determine if a previously demonstrated linear relationship between the yield of high-risk coronary disease and cardiac catheterization rates persists with contemporary data and 2 to explore whether the linear relationship exists in other jurisdictions. Methods Detailed clinical information on all patients undergoing cardiac catheterization in 3 Canadian provinces was available through the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart (APPROACH disease and partner initiatives in British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Population rates of catheterization and high-risk coronary disease detection for each health region in these three provinces, and age-adjusted rates produced using direct standardization. A mixed effects regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk coronary disease detection. Results In the contemporary Alberta data, we found a linear relationship between the population catheterization rate and the high-risk yield. Although the yield was slightly less in time period 2 (2002-2006 than in time period 1(1995-2001, there was no statistical evidence of a plateau. The linear relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk yield was similarly demonstrated in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and appears to extend, without a plateau in yield, to rates over 800 procedures per 100,000 population. Conclusions Our study demonstrates a consistent finding, over time and across jurisdictions, of linearly increasing detection of high-risk CAD as population rates of cardiac catheterization increase. This internationally-relevant finding

  2. [Social class, psychosocial occupational risk factors, and the association with self-rated health and mental health in Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Kátia Bones; Muntaner, Carles; Solar, Orielle; Borrell, Carme; Bernales, Pamela; González, María José; Ibañez, Ciro; Benach, Joan; Vallebuona, Clélia

    2014-10-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze the association between social class and psychosocial occupational risk factors and self-rated health and mental health in a Chilean population. A cross-sectional study analyzed data from the First National Survey on Employment, Work, Quality of Life, and Male and Female Workers in Chile (N = 9,503). The dependent variables were self-rated health status and mental health. The independent variables were social class (neo-Marxist), psychosocial occupational risk factors, and material deprivation. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed. There were inequalities in the distribution of psychosocial occupational risk factors by social class and sex. Furthermore, social class and psychosocial occupational risk factors were associated with unequal distribution of self-rated health and mental health among the working population in Chile. Occupational health interventions should consider workers' exposure to socioeconomic and psychosocial risk factors.

  3. Implementation of the global risk analysis in pulsed-dose rate brachytherapy: methods and results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazeron, R; Aguini, N; Rivin Del Campo, E; Dumas, I; Gensse, M-C; Brusadin, G; Lefkopoulos, D; Deutsch, E; Haie-Meder, C

    2015-04-01

    To report the application of the global risk analysis (GRA) in the pulsed-dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy workflow. Analyses were led by a multidisciplinary working group established within the unit with the guidance of a quality engineer. First, a mapping of hazardous situations was developed as a result of interactions between the patient workflow for a treatment using PDR brachytherapy split into 51 sub-phases with a comprehensive list of the hazards that he/she faces (44). Interactions, when relevant, were sorted by level of priority: to be treated immediately, secondarily (the group is not entitled to treat the situation), or later (safe situation). Secondly, for each high priority dangerous situation, scenarios were developed to anticipate their potential consequences. Criticality was assessed, using likelihood and severity scales and a matrix, which allocated risks into categories: acceptable (C1), tolerable under control (C2) and unacceptable (C3). Then, corrective actions were proposed and planned when relevant, after assessment of their feasibility with a scale of effort. Finally, the criticality of the scenarios was reevaluated, taking into account the implementation of these actions, leading to a residual risk mapping, which could trigger additional proposals of actions. Two thousand one hundred and eighty-four potential interactions between the list of hazards and the workflow were analyzed. Mapping of dangerous situations identified 213 relevant interactions, from which 61 were considered with high priority. One hundred and twenty-six scenarios were generated: 68 with a low criticality (74.3%), 58 with an intermediate score (25.7%). No scenario with the highest criticality was individualized. Twenty-one corrective actions were planned. Mapping of residual risk resulted in the disappearance of most C2 risks, leaving 5 C2 scenarios (4%), for which four monitoring indicators were implemented in addition to the corrected actions decided on. The

  4. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, Chirag; Vicini, Frank A.

    2011-01-01

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2–65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  5. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  6. The impact of macroeconomic variables on the evolution of the credit risk rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luminița Gabriela Istrate

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of the real economy is a major driver of the evolution of arrears at the level of the pool of loans granted to non-financial companies, completed by the financial pressure induced by the monetary conditions. Lending allows on the one hand providing resources for companies that need financing for investment projects, on the other hand, it supports the fund holders to place resources for obtaining profit. The role of the lending policy in the activity of commercial banks is very important, as it may influence both the cost of credits and the loan portfolio quality in the future. The purpose of this research is to find the macroeconomic variables that significantly influence credit risk and to develop a statistical model for predicting the doubtful and non-performing loans rate. Thus, it is envisaged the research of mechanisms by which the dynamics of the real economy and the money market conditions influence the evolution of the credit risk in different business sectors.

  7. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  8. Comparative rate and risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture during different surgical procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective – to identify the major risk factors leading to worse results of surgical treatment in patients with urethral stricture.Subjects and methods. Two hundred and forty-eight patients with urethral stricture underwent different surgical interventions: internal optical urethrotomy (IOU for strictures of different portions of the urethra in 157 patients (the operation was made once in 121 patients, twice in 24 patients, and thrice or more in 12; replacement urethroplasty using a buccal mucosa graft for strictures of the anterior urethra in 46 patients; Turner-Warwick’s anastomotic urethroplasty modified by Webster for strictures (distraction defects of the posterior urethra in 45 patients. The results of surgical treatment were studied using urethrography, uroflowmetry, urethrocystoscopy, the international prostate symptom score, quality of life (QoL questionnaire, and the international index of erectile function (IIEF questionnaire. The role of risk factors for postoperative recurrent urethral stricture was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The rate of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU was 66.9 % (59.5, 87.5, and 100 % after the first, second, third or more subsequent operations, respectively; 12.1 % after all types of urethroplasty, 15.2 % after augmentation urethroplasty, and 8.9 % after anastomotic urethroplasty. The major risk factors of recurrent urethral stricture after IOU were recognized to be the location of urethral stricture in the penile or bulbomembranous portions, a urethral stricture length of > 1 cm, severe urethral lumen narrowing, and performance of 2 or more operations; those after augmentation urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, a stricture length of > 4 cm, lichen sclerosus, and smoking; those after anastomotic urethroplasty were previous ineffective treatment, smoking, and a stricture length of > 4 cm.Conclusion. The results of the investigation have shown that only

  9. Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

    2016-08-17

    Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

  10. Resting heart rate is a risk factor for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but not for exacerbations or pneumonia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warnier, Miriam J; Rutten, Frans H; de Boer, Anthonius

    2014-01-01

    increased non-significantly with 7% for every 10 beats/minute increase in resting heart rate (adjusted HR: 1.07 [0.96-1.18], p = 0.208). CONCLUSIONS: Increased resting heart rate is a strong and independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in elderly patients with COPD. An increased resting heart rate...... did not result in an increased risk of exacerbations or pneumonia. This may indicate that the increased mortality risk of COPD is related to non-pulmonary causes. Future randomized controlled trials are needed to investigate whether heart-rate lowering agents are worthwhile for COPD patients....... and information on complications (exacerbation of COPD or pneumonia) by scrutinizing patient files of general practitioners. Multivariable cox regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: During the follow-up 132 (33%) patients died. The overall mortality rate was 50/1000 py (42-59). The major causes of death were...

  11. Response rate in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents – ERICA

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Thiago Luiz Nogueira; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Souza, Amanda de Moura; Barufaldi, Laura Augusta; Abreu, Gabriela de Azevedo; Kuschnir, Maria Cristina Caetano; de Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite; Bloch, Katia Vergetti

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the response rate and characteristics of people who either took part or not in from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA) , according to information subsets. METHODS ERICA is a school-based, nation-wide investigation with a representative sample of 12 to 17-year-old adolescents attending public or private schools in municipalities with over 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil. Response rate of eligible subjects were calculated according to macro-regions, sex, age, and type of school (public or private). We also calculated the percentages of replacement schools in comparison with the ones originally selected as per the sample design, according to the types of schools in the macro-regions. The subjects and non-subjects were compared according to sex, age, and average body mass indices (kg/m2). RESULTS We had 102,327 eligible adolescents enrolled in the groups drawn. The highest percentage of complete information was obtained for the subset of the questionnaire (72.9%). Complete information regarding anthropometric measurements and the ones from the questionnaire were obtained for 72.0% of the adolescents, and the combination of these data with the 24-hour dietary recall were obtained for 70.3% of the adolescents. Complete information from the questionnaire plus biochemical blood evaluation data were obtained for 52.5% of the morning session adolescents (selected for blood tests). The response percentage in private schools was higher than the one in public schools for most of the combination of information. The ratio of older and male adolescents non-participants was higher than the ratio among participants. CONCLUSIONS The response rate for non-invasive procedures was high. The response rate for blood collection – an invasive procedure that requires a 12-hour fasting period and the informed consent form from legal guardians – was lower. The response rate observed in public schools was lower than in the private ones, and

  12. Response rate in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents - ERICA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Thiago Luiz Nogueira; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Souza, Amanda de Moura; Barufaldi, Laura Augusta; Abreu, Gabriela de Azevedo; Kuschnir, Maria Cristina Caetano; de Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite; Bloch, Katia Vergetti

    2016-02-01

    OBJECTIVE To describe the response rate and characteristics of people who either took part or not in from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA) , according to information subsets. METHODS ERICA is a school-based, nation-wide investigation with a representative sample of 12 to 17-year-old adolescents attending public or private schools in municipalities with over 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil. Response rate of eligible subjects were calculated according to macro-regions, sex, age, and type of school (public or private). We also calculated the percentages of replacement schools in comparison with the ones originally selected as per the sample design, according to the types of schools in the macro-regions. The subjects and non-subjects were compared according to sex, age, and average body mass indices (kg/m2). RESULTS We had 102,327 eligible adolescents enrolled in the groups drawn. The highest percentage of complete information was obtained for the subset of the questionnaire (72.9%). Complete information regarding anthropometric measurements and the ones from the questionnaire were obtained for 72.0% of the adolescents, and the combination of these data with the 24-hour dietary recall were obtained for 70.3% of the adolescents. Complete information from the questionnaire plus biochemical blood evaluation data were obtained for 52.5% of the morning session adolescents (selected for blood tests). The response percentage in private schools was higher than the one in public schools for most of the combination of information. The ratio of older and male adolescents non-participants was higher than the ratio among participants. CONCLUSIONS The response rate for non-invasive procedures was high. The response rate for blood collection - an invasive procedure that requires a 12-hour fasting period and the informed consent form from legal guardians - was lower. The response rate observed in public schools was lower than in the private ones, and that may

  13. Prevalence rates and epidemiological risk factors for astigmatism in Singapore school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Louis; Saw, Seang-Mei; Carkeet, Andrew; Chan, Wai-Ying; Wu, Hui-Min; Tan, Donald

    2002-09-01

    This study examined the prevalence rate of astigmatism and its epidemiological risk factors in Singapore school children. In a study of school children aged 7 to 9 years old in two schools in Singapore in 1999, a detailed questionnaire was administered to parents regarding reading or close-work habits, past history of close-work, family history, and socioeconomic factors. Cycloplegic refraction was performed five times in each eye. Defining astigmatism as worse than or equal to 0.5, 0.75, and 1 D cylinder in the right eye, the prevalence of astigmatism was calculated. The study population consisted of 1028 children. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (worse than or equal to 1 D cylinder) was 19.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.8 to 21.6). This was not different between genders, ethnic groups, or age (p > 0.05). With-the-rule astigmatism was more common than against-the-rule astigmatism. The prevalence of astigmatism and myopia was 9.8% (95% confidence interval, 8.0 to 11.6). A high AC/A ratio was associated (p = 0.003) with astigmatism, even after exclusion of myopic children. On vectorial analysis, J0 and J45 were associated with the number of hours of playing video games, whereas J45 was also associated with computer use. Only J45 was associated to male gender, a high AC/A ratio, and a family history of myopia. The prevalence rate of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was 19%. Playing video games and computer use may be associated with astigmatism severity, although the presence of astigmatism (> or = 1 D) was not associated with any nearwork factors. A family history of myopia was associated with oblique astigmatism severity. A high AC/A ratio is associated with astigmatism, and this requires further investigation.

  14. 75 FR 41217 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: Reduction of Seller Concessions and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-15

    ... Administration Risk Management Initiatives: Reduction of Seller Concessions and New Loan-to-Value and Credit... with lower credit scores, who represent a higher risk of default and mortgage insurance claim. Finally... nationwide scope, FHA provided credit enhancement to protect mortgage lenders from risk of loss, which...

  15. Post-crisis Belarus: Marxism and the lender of last resort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather Bell

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Existing literature has examined the predictions and proscriptions of Karl Marx in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. However, the suggestions put forth by the Marxist-leaning literature never took hold and state-level banking and finance policies have remained largely unchanged. While many criticisms of Marxism exist, this paper examines Belarus, a ‘neo-communist’ or ‘market-socialist’ state, to provide a new perspective on the continuation of capitalism in the United States and Europe. In the case of Belarus, the International Monetary Fund and the Eurasian Economic Community's Anti-Crisis Fund provided both the critical liquidity needed to temporarily quell the effects of the financial crisis. Their demands meant that Belarus agreed to speed its move away from the Soviet-era finance and banking policies and more towards its western capitalist neighbors. Its failure to implement these policies further hurt its recovery. Examining Belarus' path to and out of its financial crisis makes apparent that the role of the international lender of last resort (LOLR. The LOLR acts as a key element in protecting states embroiled in the financial crisis from facing the possibility of making the difficult policy changes put forth by the Marxist literature. By ignoring its promises under the loan conditions from its LOLRs, Belarus moved further from the recovery promised by the Marxist suggestions.

  16. The Role of the Risk-Neutral Jump Size Distribution in Single-Factor Interest Rate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Gómez-Valle

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We obtain a result that relates the risk-neutral jump size of interest rates with yield curve data. This function is unobservable; therefore, this result opens a way to estimate the jump size directly from data in the markets together with the risk-neutral drift and jump intensity estimations. Then, we investigate the finite sample performance of this approach with a test problem. Moreover, we analyze the effect of estimating the risk-neutral jump size instead of assuming that it is artificially absorbed by the jump intensity, as usual in the interest rate literature. Finally, an application to US Treasury Bill data is also illustrated.

  17. 12 CFR 617.7100 - Who must make and who is entitled to receive an effective interest rate disclosure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... effective interest rate disclosure? 617.7100 Section 617.7100 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM BORROWER RIGHTS Disclosure of Effective Interest Rates § 617.7100 Who must make and who is entitled to receive an effective interest rate disclosure? (a) A qualified lender must make the...

  18. A quest for the right order : biodegradation rates in the scope of environmental risk assessment of chemicals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blok, Johan

    2001-01-01

    The biodegradation of chemicals in sewage treatment plants is a key issue of environmental risk assessment. To predict the residual concentration the rate of the biodegradation process has to be estimated. This rate is the result of microbial adaptation of the micro-flora in the system. Therefore

  19. 13 CFR 120.1051 - Frequency of on-site reviews and examinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1051 Frequency of on-site reviews and examinations. SBA may conduct on-site reviews and examinations of SBA Lenders, Intermediaries, and NTAPs on a...) Off-site review/monitoring results, including an SBA Lender's, Intermediary's or NTAP's Risk Rating...

  20. Association between Carotid Intima Media Thickness and Heart Rate Variability in Adults at Increased Cardiovascular Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovidiu C. Baltatu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Atherosclerotic carotid intima-media thickness (IMT may be associated with alterations in the sensitivity of carotid baroreceptors. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between carotid IMT and the autonomic modulation of heart rate variability (HRV.Methods: A total of 101 subjects were enrolled in this prospective observational study. The carotid IMT was determined by duplex ultrasonography. The cardiac autonomic function was determined through HRV measures during the Deep Breathing Test. Linear regression models, adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, body mass index, waist-hip-ratio, and left ventricular ejection fraction were used to evaluate the association between HRV parameters and carotid IMT.Results: Participants had a mean age of 60.4 ± 13.4 years and an estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD risk score (using the Pooled Cohort Equations of 16.4 ± 17. The mean carotid media thickness was highest (0.90 ± 0.19 mm in the first quartile of the standard deviation of all RR intervals (SDNN (19.7 ± 5.1 ms and progressively declined in each subsequent quartile to 0.82 ± 0.21 mm, 0.81 ± 0.16 mm, and 0.68 ± 0.19 in quartiles 2 (36.5 ± 5.9 ms, 3 (57.7 ± 6.2 ms and 4 (100.9 ± 22.2 ms, respectively. In multivariable adjusted models, there was a statistical significant association between SDNN and carotid IMT (OR −0.002; 95%CI −0.003 to −0.001, p = 0.005. The same significant association was found between carotid IMT and other measures of HRV, including coefficient of variation of RR intervals (CV and dispersion of points along the line of identity (SD2.Conclusions: In a cohort of individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, carotid IMT as a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis was associated with alterations of HRV indicating an impaired cardiac autonomic control, independently of other cardiovascular risk factors.

  1. Lifetime radiation risks from low-dose rate radionuclides in beagles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, M.; Rosenblatt, L.S.

    1985-01-01

    One of the largest, long-term (25-yr) animal studies on the effects of low-dose internal irradiation is almost completed. Some 335 beagles were given continuous exposure to graded 90 Sr [low linear energy transfer (LET)] in their diets (D-dogs) through adulthood. A second group (R-dogs) was given fractionated doses of 225 Ra (high LET) as young adults. A third group of 44 was given a single injection of 90 Sr as adults (S-dogs) to compare single to continuous dosages. All dogs were followed through their lifetimes. Only one of the 848 dogs is still alive. The animals were whole-body counted over their entire life span and were examined frequently for assessment of medical status. There were no acute radiation lethalities. Analyses of the large data base from these dogs have begun and preliminary indications are that 90 Sr, which was tested over a 1500-fold skeletal dose rate range, does not cause significant life shortening at average accumulation skeletal doses of ∼2500 rads (25 Gy) and that a curvilinear dose response curve for life shortening was seen at higher accumulation doses. The data will be discussed in terms of modern epidemiological concepts and quantifications will be related to certain parameters of human risk from acute or chronic radiation exposures

  2. Business travel and self-rated health, obesity, and cardiovascular disease risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Catherine A; Rundle, Andrew G

    2011-04-01

    To assess associations between extent of travel for business and health. Associations between business travel and cardiovascular disease risk factors were assessed using medical record data from 13,057 patients provided by EHE International, Inc. Compared with light travelers (1 to 6 nights per month), nontravelers were more likely to report poor/fair health (odds ratio = 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33 to 1.87) and the odds ratios increased with increasing travel, reaching 2.61 (95% CI: 1.57 to 4.33) among extensive travelers (>20 nights per month). Compared with light travelers, the odds ratios for obesity were highest among nontravelers (odds ratio = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.50) and extensive travelers (odds ratio = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.25 to 2.94). Although the differences were small, nontravelers and extensive travelers had the highest diastolic blood pressure and lowest high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Poor self-rated health and obesity are associated with extensive business travel.

  3. Rate of Corneal Collagen Crosslinking Redo in Private Practice: Risk Factors and Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joelle Antoun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To report the rate of progression of keratectasia after primary crosslinking (CXL and evaluate the safety and efficiency of CXL redo. Materials and Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the patients who underwent CXL between 2010 and 2013 at the Beirut Eye Specialist Hospital, Lebanon. Progression of keratectasia was based on the presence of an increase in maximum keratometry of 1.00 D, a change in the map difference between two consecutive topographies of 1.00 D, a deterioration of visual acuity, or any change in the refraction. Primary and redo CXL were done using the same protocol. Results. Among the 221 eyes of 130 patients who underwent CXL, 7 eyes (3.17% of five patients met the criteria of progression. All patients reported a history of allergic conjunctivitis and eye rubbing and progressed within 9 to 48 months. No complications were noted and all patients were stable 1 year after CXL redo. Conclusion. Allergic conjunctivitis and eye rubbing were the only risk factors associated with keratoconus progression after CXL. A close followup is thus mandatory, even years after the procedure. CXL redo seems to be a safe and efficient technique to halt the progression after a primary CXL.

  4. Statewide prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis and rate of adrenaline autoinjector activation in Victorian government schools, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loke, Paxton; Koplin, Jennifer; Beck, Cara; Field, Michael; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Tang, Mimi L K; Allen, Katrina J

    2016-08-01

    The prevalence of school students at risk of anaphylaxis in Victoria is unknown and has not been previously studied. Similarly, rates of adrenaline autoinjector usage in the school environment have yet to be determined given increasing prescription rates. We sought to determine time trends in prevalence of school children at risk of anaphylaxis across all year levels and the annual usage rate of adrenaline autoinjectors in the school setting relative to the number of students at risk of anaphylaxis. Statewide surveys from more than 1,500 government schools including more than 550,000 students were used and prevalence rates (%) with 95% CIs were calculated. The overall prevalence of students at risk of anaphylaxis has increased 41% from 0.98% (95% CI, 0.95-1.01) in 2009 to 1.38% (95% CI, 1.35-1.41) in 2014. There was a significant drop in reporting of anaphylaxis risk with transition from the final year of primary school to the first year of secondary school, suggesting a change in parental reporting of anaphylaxis risk among secondary school students. The number of adrenaline autoinjectors activated per 1000 students at risk of anaphylaxis ranged from 6 to 8 per year, with consistently higher activation use in secondary school students than in primary school students. Statewide prevalence of anaphylaxis risk has increased in children attending Victorian government schools. However, adrenaline autoinjector activation has remained fairly stable despite known increase in the rates of prescription. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A quantified risk-scoring system and rating model for postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome in gastric cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Dong; Mao, Chen-Chen; Zhang, Wei-Teng; Lin, Ji; Wu, Rui-Sen; Zhang, Feng-Min; Sun, Xiang-Wei; Chi, Chu-Huai; Shen, Xian; Wang, Peng-Fei

    2017-09-01

    The study aimed to investigate the relationship between obesity and postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome (PGS), and to construct a scoring system and a risk model to identify patients at high risk. A total of 634 patients were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical characteristics were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Logistic analysis was performed to determine the independent predictive indicators of PGS. A scoring system consisting of these indicators and a risk-rating model were constructed and evaluated via ROC curve analysis. Based on the ROC curves, the visceral fat area (VFA) cutoff value for PGS was 94.00. Logistic analysis showed that visceral obesity (VFA ≥ 94.00 cm 2 ), the reconstruction technique, and tumor size were independent prognostic factors for PGS. The scoring system could predict PGS reliably with a high area under the ROC curve ([AUC] = 0.769). A high-risk rating had a high AUC (AUC I = 0.56, AUC II = 0.65, and AUC III = 0.77), indicating that the risk-rating model could effectively screen patients at high risk of PGS. Visceral obesity defined by VFA effectively predicted PGS. Our scoring system may be a reliable instrument for identifying patients most at risk of PGS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Energy-efficient mortgages and home energy rating systems: A report on the nation`s progress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farhar, B.C.; Eckert, J.

    1993-09-01

    This report summarizes progress throughout the nation in establishing voluntary programs linking home energy rating systems (HERS) and energy-efficient mortgages (EEMs). These programs use methods for rating the energy efficiency of new and existing homes and predicting energy cost savings so lenders can factor in energy cost savings when underwriting mortgages. The programs also encourage lenders to finance cost-effective energy-efficiency improvements to existing homes with low-interest mortgages or other instruments. The money saved on utility bills over the long term can more than offset the cost of such energy-efficiency improvements. The National Collaborative on HERS and EEMs recommended that this report be prepared.

  7. Analysis of primary risk factors for oral cancer from select US states with increasing rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Malley Susan

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives To examine the primary risk factor for oral cancer in the US, smoking and tobacco use, among the specific US states that experienced short-term increases in oral cancer incidence and mortality. Methods Population-based data on oral cancer morbidity and mortality in the US were obtained from the National Cancer Institute's (NCI Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER database for analysis of recent trends. Data were also obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS to measure current and former trends of tobacco usage. To comprehensive measures of previous state tobacco use and tobacco-related policies, the Initial Outcomes Index (IOI, 1992-1993 and the Strength of Tobacco Control index (SoTC, 1999-2000 were also used for evaluation and comparison. Results Analysis of the NCI-SEER data confirmed a previous report of geographic increases in oral cancer and demonstrated these were state-specific, were not regional, and were unrelated to previously observed increases among females and minorities. Analysis of the CDC-BRFSS data revealed these states had relatively higher percentages of smokers currently, as well as historically. In addition, analysis of the IOI and SoTC indexes suggest that many factors, including cigarette pricing, taxes and home or workplace bans, may have had significant influence on smoking prevalence in these areas. Trend analysis of these data uncovered a recent and significant reversal in smoking rates that suggest oral cancer incidence and mortality may also begin to decline in the near future. Conclusion Due to the rising costs of health care in the US and the limited resources available for health prevention efforts, it is essential to organize and direct more effective efforts by public health officials and epidemiologists, as well as funding from local, state and federal governments, to reduce and eliminate identified

  8. Radioablation of liver malignancies with interstitial high-dose-rate brachytherapy. Complications and risk factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohnike, Konrad; Wolf, Steffen; Damm, Robert; Seidensticker, Max; Seidensticker, Ricarda; Fischbach, Frank; Pech, Maciej; Ricke, Jens [Otto-von-Guericke-Universitaet, Klinik fuer Radiologie und Nuklearmedizin, Universitaetsklinikum Magdeburg A.oe.R., Magdeburg (Germany); Peters, Nils; Hass, Peter; Gademann, Guenther [Otto-von-Guericke-Universitaet, Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie, Universitaetsklinikum Magdeburg A.oe.R., Magdeburg (Germany)

    2016-05-15

    To evaluate complications and identify risk factors for adverse events in patients undergoing high-dose-rate interstitial brachytherapy (iBT). Data from 192 patients treated in 343 CT- or MRI-guided interventions from 2006-2009 at our institution were analyzed. In 41 %, the largest tumor treated was ≥ 5 cm, 6 % of the patients had tumors ≥ 10 cm. Prior to iBT, 60 % of the patients had chemotherapy, 22 % liver resection, 19 % thermoablation or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Safety was the primary endpoint; survival data were obtained as the secondary endpoints. During follow-up, MRI or CT imaging was performed and clinical and laboratory parameters were obtained. The rate of major complications was below 5 %. Five major bleedings (1.5 %) occurred. The frequency of severe bleeding was significantly higher in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. One patient developed signs of a nonclassic radiation-induced liver disease. In 3 patients, symptomatic gastrointestinal (GI) ulcers were detected. A dose exposure to the GI wall above 14 Gy/ml was a reliable threshold to predict ulcer formation. A combination of C-reactive protein ≥ 165 mg/l and/or leukocyte count ≥ 12.7 Gpt/l on the second day after the intervention predicted infection (sensitivity 90.0 %; specificity 92.8 %.) Two patients (0.6 %) died within 30 days. Median overall survival after the first liver treatment was 20.1 months for all patients and the local recurrence-free surviving proportion was 89 % after 12 months. Image-guided iBT yields a low rate of major complications and is effective. (orig.) [German] Evaluierung der Komplikationsrate und Identifizierung von Risikofaktoren fuer Komplikationen und Nebenwirkungen bei Patienten mit Lebermalignomen, die mit der hochdosierten interstitiellen Brachytherapie (iBT) behandelt wurden. Von 2006 bis 2009 wurden 192 Patienten in 343 CT- oder MRT-gefuehrten Interventionen behandelt und deren Daten ausgewertet. Der groesste behandelte Tumor war in

  9. Exchange rate risks in trade and investment between South Africa and the developed countries / by Cui Zhang

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Cui

    2009-01-01

    The current international monetary system is very different from that of a few decades ago. Many of the old restrictions that had been placed on currency and capital movements between countries have fallen away in favour of a much more liberal international payment and investment system. The global financial arena is now characterized by greater currency instability, volatility and heightened financial risks. Exchange Rate risk is one of the complex topics in the economic world. Since there a...

  10. Reduced glomerular filtration rate and its association with clinical outcome in older patients at risk of vascular events: secondary analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ford, Ian

    2009-01-20

    Reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk in young and middle aged individuals. Associations with cardiovascular disease and mortality in older people are less clearly established. We aimed to determine the predictive value of the GFR for mortality and morbidity using data from the 5,804 participants randomized in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).

  11. A probabilistic analysis reveals fundamental limitations with the environmental impact quotient and similar systems for rating pesticide risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert K.D. Peterson

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Comparing risks among pesticides has substantial utility for decision makers. However, if rating schemes to compare risks are to be used, they must be conceptually and mathematically sound. We address limitations with pesticide risk rating schemes by examining in particular the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ using, for the first time, a probabilistic analytic technique. To demonstrate the consequences of mapping discrete risk ratings to probabilities, adjusted EIQs were calculated for a group of 20 insecticides in four chemical classes. Using Monte Carlo simulation, adjusted EIQs were determined under different hypothetical scenarios by incorporating probability ranges. The analysis revealed that pesticides that have different EIQs, and therefore different putative environmental effects, actually may be no different when incorporating uncertainty. The EIQ equation cannot take into account uncertainty the way that it is structured and provide reliable quotients of pesticide impact. The EIQ also is inconsistent with the accepted notion of risk as a joint probability of toxicity and exposure. Therefore, our results suggest that the EIQ and other similar schemes be discontinued in favor of conceptually sound schemes to estimate risk that rely on proper integration of toxicity and exposure information.

  12. Rates of Delirium Diagnosis Do Not Improve with Emergency Risk Screening: Results of the Emergency Department Delirium Initiative Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arendts, Glenn; Love, Jennefer; Nagree, Yusuf; Bruce, David; Hare, Malcolm; Dey, Ian

    2017-08-01

    To determine whether a bundled risk screening and warning or action card system improves formal delirium diagnosis and person-centered outcomes in hospitalized older adults. Prospective trial with sequential introduction of screening and interventional processes. Two tertiary referral hospitals in Australia. Individuals aged 65 and older presenting to the emergency department (ED) and not requiring immediate resuscitation (N = 3,905). Formal ED delirium screening algorithm and use of a risk warning card with a recommended series of actions for the prevention and management of delirium during the subsequent admission MEASUREMENTS: Delirium diagnosis at hospital discharge, proportion discharged to new assisted living arrangements, in-hospital complications (use of sedation, falls, aspiration pneumonia, death), hospital length of stay. Participants with a positive risk screen were significantly more likely (relative risk = 6.0, 95% confidence interval = 4.9-7.3) to develop delirium, and the proportion of at-risk participants with a positive screen was constant across three study phases. Delirium detection rate in participants undergoing the final intervention (Phase 3) was 12.1% (a 2% absolute and 17% relative increase from the baseline rate) but this was not statistically significant (P = .29), and a similar relative increase was seen over time in participants not receiving the intervention CONCLUSION: A risk screening and warning or action card intervention in the ED did not significantly improve rates of delirium detection or other important outcomes. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  13. 77 FR 51465 - Federal Housing Administration: Strengthening Risk Management Through Responsible FHA-Approved...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-24

    .... FR-5622-F-01] RIN 2502-AJ13 Federal Housing Administration: Strengthening Risk Management Through Responsible FHA-Approved Lenders AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary for Housing--Federal Housing... strengthen the risk management practices of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), HUD published a final...

  14. Relationship of detection rate of PET cancer screening examinees and risk factors. Analysis of background of examinees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibata, Koji; Uno, Kimiichi; Arai, Masami; Matsuura, Masaaki; Yoshida, Teruhiko; Momose, Toshimitsu; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2011-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) cancer screening is performed widely in Japan as opportunistic screening, but no study has focused on the correlation with various cancer risk factors and the seeking bias of examinees and cancer detection rate. Analyzing our large series of PET cancer screening data, correlations with cancer detection rates according to general cancer risk factors and PET detection survey were reviewed, and the selection bias of the medical examinees was determined. 19189 examinees who underwent PET cancer screening were enrolled. Using logistic-regression analysis, we analyzed correlations between smoking history/drinking history/cancer family history and detection rates of thyroid cancer/breast cancer/colorectal cancer/lung cancer, which are the main malignancies detected in PET cancer screening. In addition, we evaluated seeking bias of examinees, analyzing correlations between the presence of cancer risk factors and prior screening checkups at other institutions to our PET cancer screening using a matched case-control study. Cancer detection rates by FDG-PET were 1.17% (224/19189), being much higher than those of standard cancer mass screenings. In males, statistically significant correlations were seen between lung cancer and smoking, and between prostate cancer and a family history of prostate cancer, but not between the detection rates of three other types of cancer (thyroid cancer/lung cancer/colorectal cancer) and other cancer risk factors. In females, detection rates of four types of cancer (thyroid cancer/lung cancer/colorectal cancer/breast cancer) were significantly higher in the examinees without cancer risks, and subgroup analysis according to types of cancer did not indicate significant correlations either. The matched case-control study evaluating seeking bias indicated that a significant proportion of the examinees with cancer risks had undergone prior cancer screening at other institutions. Our study indicated that there was

  15. Implications of supermarket access, neighbourhood walkability and poverty rates for diabetes risk in an employee population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrick, Cynthia J; Yount, Byron W; Eyler, Amy A

    2016-08-01

    Diabetes is a growing public health problem, and the environment in which people live and work may affect diabetes risk. The goal of the present study was to examine the association between multiple aspects of environment and diabetes risk in an employee population. This was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis. Home environment variables were derived using employees' zip code. Descriptive statistics were run on all individual- and zip-code-level variables, stratified by diabetes risk and worksite. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was then conducted to determine the strongest associations with diabetes risk. Data were collected from employee health fairs in a Midwestern health system, 2009-2012. The data set contains 25 227 unique individuals across four years of data. From this group, using an individual's first entry into the database, 15 522 individuals had complete data for analysis. The prevalence of high diabetes risk in this population was 2·3 %. There was significant variability in individual- and zip-code-level variables across worksites. From the multivariable analysis, living in a zip code with higher percentage of poverty and higher walk score was positively associated with high diabetes risk, while living in a zip code with higher supermarket density was associated with a reduction in high diabetes risk. Our study underscores the important relationship between poverty, home neighbourhood environment and diabetes risk, even in a relatively healthy employed population, and suggests a role for the employer in promoting health.

  16. A multicriteria approach for rating the credit risk of financial institutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baourakis, G.; Conisescu, M.; Dijk, van G.; Pardalos, P.; Zopounidis, C.

    2009-01-01

    Within the new bank regulatory context, the assessment of the credit risk of financial institutions is an important issue for supervising authorities and investors. This study explores the possibility of a developing risk assessment model for financial institutions using a multicriteria

  17. Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

    2016-01-01

    Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

  18. The Relationship between the Risk of a Change of the Interest Rate and the Age of Entrepreneurs among Slovak SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sobeková Majková Monika

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Young entrepreneurs and start-up founders are considered to be a drivers of innovation which is an important element of knowledge economy and competitiveness of each country. But their early age could be perceived as a factor causing the increasing impact of the credit risk because young entrepreneurs usually have a short company history, weak capital power and a lack of the guarantees. The main objective of this paper is to bring scientific evidence that the age of the entrepreneur should be considered as a factor with the significant impact on one part of the credit risk of a company– the risk of a change of the interest rate. The research was carried out among 438 Slovak companies in 2016. Based on Pearson´s chi-square analysis of the results of our research, we bring statistical evidence that age has a significant impact on the ability of the company to protect the firm against the change of the interest rate. We also found out that there is dependence between the age of the owner and the opinion that SMEs in the other EU countries have better loan conditions, especially lower interest rates, than Slovak SMEs. Research findings indicate that young entrepreneurs have problems with obtaining capital and increasing interest rates and collaterals because of their higher risk profile. But effective state support of young and innovative companies through venture financing can lead to increasing global competitiveness of the Slovak Republic.

  19. Non-Expert Ratings of Infant and Parent Emotion: Concordance with Expert Coding and Relevance to Early Autism Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Jason K.; Haltigan, John D.; Brewster, Ryan; Jaccard, James; Messinger, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated a novel approach to obtaining data on parent and infant emotion during the Face-to-Face/Still-Face paradigm, and examined these data in light of previous findings regarding early autism risk. One-hundred and eighty eight non-expert students rated 38 parents and infant siblings of children who did (20) or did not (18) have…

  20. The impact of lifestyle risk factors on the rate of infection after surgery for a fracture of the ankle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, L L; Møller, A M; Brorson, S

    2017-01-01

    .PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all patients who underwent internal fixation of a fracture of the ankle between 2008 and 2013. The primary outcome was the rate of deep infection and the secondary outcome was any surgical site infection (SSI). Associations with the risk factors and possible...

  1. 12 CFR 615.5182 - Interest rate risk management by associations and other Farm Credit System institutions other...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate risk management by associations and other Farm Credit System institutions other than banks. 615.5182 Section 615.5182 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FUNDING AND FISCAL AFFAIRS, LOAN POLICIES AND...

  2. ARIES Oxide Production Program Assessment of Risk to Long-term Sustainable Production Rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitworth, Julia [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lloyd, Jane Alexandria [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Majors, Harry W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-05-04

    This report describes an assessment of risks and the development of a risk watch list for the ARIES Oxide Production Program conducted in the Plutonium Facility at LANL. The watch list is an active list of potential risks and opportunities that the management team periodically considers to maximize the likelihood of program success. The initial assessments were made in FY 16. The initial watch list was reviewed in September 2016. The initial report was not issued. Revision 1 has been developed based on management review of the original watch list and includes changes that occurred during FY-16.

  3. Risk-based approach in valuation of workplace injury rate for transportation and construction industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pykhtin, Kirill; Simankina, Tatiana; Sharmanov, Vladimir; Kopytova, Anna

    2017-10-01

    The danger of injuries and accidents in various industries such as transportation and construction urges the government to control the occupational health and safety more strictly. However, in order to do so with the minimal costs modern risk management tools, have to be implemented. Risk-based approach is an essential tool for competent risk- assessment and used in a great variety of other countries, demonstrating great results in providing of safe working environment. The article describes the problems that the implementation of the method faces in Russia and suggests certain ways to resolve them.

  4. 13 CFR 120.434 - What are SBA's requirements for loan pledges?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... satisfactory SBA performance, as determined by SBA in its discretion. The Lender's Risk Rating, among other... BUSINESS LOANS Lenders Other Conveyances § 120.434 What are SBA's requirements for loan pledges? (a) Except... 7(a) loan, which consent SBA may withhold in its sole discretion; (b) The Lender must be in good...

  5. Fear, Risk, and the Responsible Choice: Risk Narratives and Lowering the Rate of Caesarean Sections in High-income Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helga Hallgrimsdottir

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In Canada, as elsewhere in the world, caesarean sections are the most common surgical procedure performed in hospitals annually. Recent national statistics indicate 28% of infants in Canada are born by c-section while in the United States that number rises to 33%. This is despite World Health Organization recommendations that at a population level only 10–15% of births warrant this form of medical intervention. This trend has become cause for concern in recent decades due to the short and long-term health risks to pregnant women and infants, as well as the financial burden it places on public health care systems. Others warn this trend may result in a collective loss of cultural knowledge of a normal physiological process and, in the process, establish a new “normal” childbirth. Despite a range of interventions to curb c-section rates—enhanced prenatal care and innovation in pregnancy monitoring, change in hospital level policies, procedures and protocols, as well as public education campaigns—they remain stubbornly resistant to stabilization, let alone, reduction in high-income countries. We explore—through a review of the academic and grey literature—the role of cultural and social narratives around risk, and the responsibilization of the pregnant woman and the medical practitioner in creating this kind of resistance to intervention today.

  6. Mortality and recurrence rates among systemically untreated high risk breast cancer patients included in the DBCG 77 trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Maj Britt; Nielsen, Torsten O.; Knoop, Ann S.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient characte......Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient...... and EGFR positive. Multivariate categorical and fractional polynomials (MFP) models were used to construct prognostic subsets by clinicopathologic characteristics. Results: In a multivariate model, mortality rate was significantly associated with age, tumor size, nodal status, invasion, histological type...

  7. Ratings of Sovereign Risk and the Macroeconomics Fundamentals of the countries: a Study Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Cândido da Silva Filho

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available To minimize the consequences of asymmetric information, the sovereign risk ratings are instruments that constitute a key piece in the determination of credit market conditions, essential to the growth of developing countries like Brazil. In the present work we studied based on macroeconomics foundations, a classification to sovereign risk ratings realized by the ratings agencies finding the classification using Artificial Neural Networks. We observed homogeneity degree between the attributions of agencies and macroeconomics foundations in the countries of sample which four of foundations seem to be more directly connected with these attributions. After, in a comparative static exercise, we use the model to make simulations of scenarios of the credit external conditions for the Brazilian economy, changing the macroeconomics foundations which we noted that agencies expected for more per capita income increasing and decrease of public debt. (Full article in Portuguese only

  8. Individual and Population Level Impact of Key HIV Risk Factors on HIV Incidence Rates in Durban, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gita Ramjee

    Full Text Available We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of age, marital status and diagnosis with sexually transmitted infections (STIs on HIV acquisition among young women at a population level in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 3,978 HIV seronegative women were recruited for four biomedical intervention trials from 2002-2009. Point and interval estimates of partial population attributable risk (PAR were used to quantify the proportion of HIV seroconversions which can be prevented if a combination of risk factors is eliminated from a target population. More than 70% of the observed HIV acquisitions were collectively attributed to the three risk factors: younger age (<25 years old, unmarried and not cohabiting with a stable/regular partner and diagnosis with STIs. Addressing these risks requires targeted structural, behavioural, biomedical and cultural interventions in order to impact on unacceptably high HIV incidence rates among young women and the population as a whole.

  9. Cardiovascular metabolic risk factors and glomerular filtration rate: a rural Chinese population study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Wei; Qian, Geng; Hao, Wenjun; Geng, Xiaodong; Hong, Quan; Cai, Guangyan; Chen, Xiangmei; Wu, Di

    2016-10-12

    A total of 2426 study subjects from rural China aged 35 years and above (934 men and 1492 women) were enrolled in a cross-sectional survey. The eGFR calculation was based on the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation. The strength of the association between cardiovascular metabolic risk factors and eGFR was analyzed using a linear regression model. Cardiovascular metabolic risk factors, including age, body weight, waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), creatinine (Cr), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), systolic pressure, and diastolic pressure, were associated with eGFR. Additionally, the eGFR level gradually decreased and showed a linear trend with the increase in metabolic syndrome risk factors. Metabolic risk factors are correlated with a reduction in renal function and CKD.

  10. Rates and risk factors of injury in CrossFit:A prospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Moran, Sebastian; Booker, Harry; Staines, Jacob; Williams, Sean

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUNDː CrossFit is a strength and conditioning programme that has gained widespread popularity since its inception approximately 15 years ago. However, at present little is known about the level of injury risk associated with this form of training. Movement competency, assessed using the Functional Movement Screen (FMS), has been identified as a risk factor for injury in numerous athletic populations, but its role in CrossFit participants is currently unclear. The aim of this study was t...

  11. Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

  12. Risk transfer via energy-savings insurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, Evan

    2003-01-01

    Among the key barriers to investment in energy efficiency are uncertainties about attaining projected energy savings and potential disputes over stipulated savings. The fields of energy management and risk management are thus intertwined. While many technical methods have emerged to manage performance risks (e.g. building diagnostics and commissioning), financial methods are less developed in the energy management arena than in other segments of the economy. Energy-savings insurance (ESI) - formal insurance of predicted energy savings - transfers and spreads both types of risk over a larger pool of energy efficiency projects and reduces barriers to market entry of smaller energy service firms who lack sufficiently strong balance sheets to self-insure the savings. ESI encourages those implementing energy-saving projects to go beyond standard measures and thereby achieve more significant levels of energy savings. Insurance providers are proponents of improved savings measurement and verification techniques, as well as maintenance, thereby contributing to national energy-saving objectives. If properly applied, ESI can potentially reduce the net cost of energy-saving projects by reducing the interest rates charged by lenders, and by increasing the level of savings through quality control. Governmental agencies have been pioneers in the use of ESI and could continue to play a role

  13. Risk factors and their combined effects on the incidence rate of subarachnoid hemorrhage--a population-based cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miikka Korja

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prospective studies on the risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH are limited. Moreover, the effect of risk factors on the incidence rates of SAH is not well known about. AIMS: In this study, we aimed to identify risk factors for SAH and characterize subgroups in a population with a high incidence of SAH. METHODS: After recording multiple potential risk factors for SAH at the time of enrollment, first ever SAH events between 1972 and 2009 were recorded through the nationwide Causes of Death Register and Hospital Discharge Register for the population-based cohort of 64 349 participants, who participated in the National FINRISK Study between 1972 and 2007 in Finland. RESULTS: During the follow-up time of 1.26 million person-years (median 17.9 years, range 0 to 37.9 years, 437 persons experienced fatal or non-fatal SAH. Crude SAH incidence was 34.8 (95% confidence interval: 31.7-38.2 per 100 000 person-years among ≥ 25-year-old persons. Female sex, high blood pressure values and current smoking were confirmed as risk factors for SAH. Previous myocardial infarction, history of premature stroke (any kind in mother and elevated cholesterol levels in men were identified as new risk factors for SAH. Depending on the combination of risk factors, SAH incidence varied between 8 and 171 per 100 000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: New and previously reported risk factors appear to have a much stronger association with the incidence of SAH than is ordinarily seen in cardiovascular diseases. Risk factor assessments may facilitate the identification of high-risk persons who should be the focus of preventive interventions.

  14. Risk Factors and Their Combined Effects on the Incidence Rate of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage – A Population-Based Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korja, Miikka; Silventoinen, Karri; Laatikainen, Tiina; Jousilahti, Pekka; Salomaa, Veikko; Hernesniemi, Juha; Kaprio, Jaakko

    2013-01-01

    Background Prospective studies on the risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) are limited. Moreover, the effect of risk factors on the incidence rates of SAH is not well known about. Aims In this study, we aimed to identify risk factors for SAH and characterize subgroups in a population with a high incidence of SAH. Methods After recording multiple potential risk factors for SAH at the time of enrolment, first ever SAH events between 1972 and 2009 were recorded through the nationwide Causes of Death Register and Hospital Discharge Register for the population-based cohort of 64 349 participants, who participated in the National FINRISK Study between 1972 and 2007 in Finland. Results During the follow-up time of 1.26 million person-years (median 17.9 years, range 0 to 37.9 years), 437 persons experienced fatal or non-fatal SAH. Crude SAH incidence was 34.8 (95% confidence interval: 31.7–38.2) per 100 000 person-years among ≥25-year-old persons. Female sex, high blood pressure values and current smoking were confirmed as risk factors for SAH. Previous myocardial infarction, history of premature stroke (any kind) in mother and elevated cholesterol levels in men were identified as new risk factors for SAH. Depending on the combination of risk factors, SAH incidence varied between 8 and 171 per 100 000 person-years. Conclusions New and previously reported risk factors appear to have a much stronger association with the incidence of SAH than is ordinarily seen in cardiovascular diseases. Risk factor assessments may facilitate the identification of high-risk persons who should be the focus of preventive interventions. PMID:24040058

  15. State disparities in colorectal cancer rates: Contributions of risk factors, screening, and survival differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Lansdorp-Vogelaar (Iris); S.L. Goede (S. Lucas); J. Ma (Jiemin); W. Xiau-Cheng (Wu); K. Pawlish (Karen); M. van Ballegooijen (Marjolein); A. Jemal (Ahmedin)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND Northeastern states of the United States have shown more progress in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates than Southern states, and this has resulted in considerable disparities. This study quantified how the disparities in CRC rates between Louisiana

  16. Rating agencies : Role and influence of their sovereign credit risk assessment in the Eurozone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijffinger, S.C.W.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the role of credit rating agencies (CRAs) during the 2010–11 EU sovereign debt crisis is assessed. It is concluded that rating agencies lag behind markets, that their business model is flawed, and that the lack of competition renders the big three CRAs with too strong a market

  17. Risk of inflammatory bowel disease according to self-rated health, pregnancy course, and pregnancy complications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harpsøe, Maria C; Jørgensen, Kristian Tore; Frisch, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Poor self-rated health (SRH) has been connected to immunological changes, and pregnancy complications have been suggested in the etiology of autoimmune diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the impact of self-rated pre-pregnancy health and pregnancy course, hyperemesis...

  18. Heart rate as a predictor of stroke in high-risk, hypertensive patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandset, Else Charlotte; Berge, Eivind; Kjeldsen, Sverre E; Julius, Stevo; Holzhauer, Björn; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Hua, Tsushung A

    2014-01-01

    Risk factors for first stroke are well established, but less is known about risk factors for recurrent stroke. In the present analysis, we aimed to assess the effect of heart rate and other possible predictors of stroke in a hypertensive population with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). The Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-Term Use Evaluation trial was a multicentre, double-masked, randomized controlled, parallel group trial comparing the effects of an angiotensin receptor blocker (valsartan) and a calcium channel blocker (amlodipine) in patients with hypertension and high cardiovascular risk. We used Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the effect of baseline variables on the risk of stroke. Quadratic terms of the continuous variables were entered in the models to test for linearity. Of 15,245 patients included in the trial, 3014 had a previous stroke or TIA at baseline and were included in the present analysis. Stroke recurrence occurred in 239 patients (7.9%) during a median of 4.5 years of follow-up. Resting heart rate (per 10 beats per minute; hazard ratio [HR], 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-6.58) and diabetes mellitus at baseline (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03-2.10) were significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke recurrence in the multivariable analysis. In high-risk, hypertensive patients with previous stroke or TIA, resting heart rate was the strongest predictor of recurrent stroke. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Child and adolescent mental health problems in Tyva Republic, Russia, as possible risk factors for a high suicide rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slobodskaya, Helena R; Semenova, Nadezhda B

    2016-04-01

    High rates of child mental health problems in the Russian Federation have recently been documented; the rates of youth suicide are among the highest in the world. Across the Russian regions, Republic of Tyva has one of the highest rates of child and adolescent suicide and the lowest life expectancy at birth. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and associations of mental health problems in Native Tyvinian children and adolescents using internationally recognised measures and diagnoses. A two-stage, two-phase design involved selection of schools in five rural settlements in Western Tyva and two schools in the capital city followed by selection of Native Tyvinian children in grades 3-4 (ages 9-10) and 6-7 (ages 14-15). In the first phase, a screening measure of psychopathology, the Rutter Teacher Questionnaire, was obtained on 1048 children with a 97% participation rate. In the second phase, more detailed psychiatric assessments were carried out for subgroups of screen-positive and screen-negative children. The prevalence of mental health problems was about 25%, ranging from 40% in adolescent boys from rural areas to 9% in adolescent girls from the city. The patterning of disorders and risk factors were similar to those in other countries, rural areas were associated with an increased risk of psychopathology. The findings indicate that there is an urgent need for interventions to reduce risk in this population and provide effective help for Tyvinian children and adolescents with mental health problems.

  20. Small Businesses Save Big: A Guide to Help SBA Lenders Understand and Communicate the Value of Energy Efficiency Investments (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-01-01

    Dollars saved through energy efficiency can directly impact your bottom line. Whether you are planning for a major renovation or upgrading individual pieces of building equipment, these improvements can help reduce operating costs, save on utility bills, and boost profits. This fact sheet provides guidelines for SBA lenders to understand the value of financing energy efficiency investments.

  1. 7 CFR Exhibit B-4 to Subpart B of... - Letter for Notifying Applicants, Lenders and Holders and Borrowers of Unfavorable Decision...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Used in Cases Involving Farmer Program Primary Loan Servicing Actions) B Exhibit B-4 to Subpart B of... AGRICULTURE PROGRAM REGULATIONS GENERAL Adverse Decisions and Administrative Appeals Pt. 1900, Subpt. B, Exh. B-4 Exhibit B-4 to Subpart B of Part 1900—Letter for Notifying Applicants, Lenders and Holders and...

  2. 7 CFR Exhibit B-2 to Subpart B of... - Letter for Notifying Applicants, Lenders and Holders and Borrowers of Unfavorable Decision...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... and Borrowers of Unfavorable Decision Reached at the Meeting B Exhibit B-2 to Subpart B of Part 1900... REGULATIONS GENERAL Adverse Decisions and Administrative Appeals Pt. 1900, Subpt. B, Exh. B-2 Exhibit B-2 to Subpart B of Part 1900—Letter for Notifying Applicants, Lenders and Holders and Borrowers of Unfavorable...

  3. A novel cardiovascular risk stratification model incorporating ECG and heart rate variability for patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heldeweg, Micah Liam Arthur; Liu, Nan; Koh, Zhi Xiong; Fook-Chong, Stephanie; Lye, Weng Kit; Harms, Mark; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock

    2016-01-01

    Background: Risk stratification models can be employed at the emergency department (ED) to evaluate patient prognosis and guide choice of treatment. We derived and validated a new cardiovascular risk stratification model comprising vital signs, heart rate variability (HRV) parameters, and

  4. Risk Assessment of Diabetes Mellitus by Chaotic Globals to Heart Rate Variability via Six Power Spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garner David M.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The priniciple objective here is to analyze cardiovascular dynamics in diabetic subjects by actions related to heart rate variability (HRV. The correlation of chaotic globals is vital to evaluate the probability of dynamical diseases.

  5. American Indians, hunting and fishing rates, risk, and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, J.

    1999-01-01

    Hunting, fishing, and recreational rates of 276 American Indians attending a festival at Fort Hall, near the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), were examined. Nearly half of the sample lived on the Fort Hall Reservation, and half were American Indians from elsewhere in the western United States. An additional 44 White people attending the festival were also interviewed. The hypothesis that there are differences in hunting, fishing, and recreational rates as a function of tribal affiliation, educational level, gender, and age was examined. Information on hunting and fishing rates are central for understanding potential exposure scenarios for American Indians if the Department of Energy's INEEL lands are ever opened to public access, and the data are important because of the existence of tribal treaties that govern the legal and cultural rights of the Shoshone-Bannock regarding INEEL lands. Variations in hunting, fishing, and photography rates were explained by tribal affiliation (except fishing), gender, age, and schooling. Hunting rates were significantly higher for Indians (both those living on Fort Hall and others) than Whites. Men engaged in significantly higher rates of outdoor activities than women (except for photography). Potential and current hunting and fishing on and adjacent to INEEL was more similar among the local Whites and Fort Hall Indians than between these two groups and other American Indians

  6. SSD-based rating system for the classification of pesticide risk on biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Serenella; Migliorati, Sonia; Monti, Gianna S; Vighi, Marco

    2012-05-01

    A novel approach, based on Species sensitivity distribution (SSD), is proposed for the development of an index for classifying ecotoxicological pesticide risk in surface waters. In this approach, the concept of TER (Toxicity Exposure Ratio), commonly used in traditional risk indices, is substituted by the concept of PAF (Potentially Affected Fraction), which takes into account several species within the biological community of interest, rather than just a small number of indicator species assumed as being representative of the ecosystem. The procedure represents a probabilistic tool to quantitatively assess the ecotoxicological risk on biodiversity considering the distribution of toxicological sensitivity. It can be applied to assess chemical risk on generic aquatic and terrestrial communities as well as on site-specific natural communities. Examples of its application are shown for some pesticides in freshwater ecosystems. In order to overcome the problem of insufficient reliable ecotoxicological data, a methodology and related algorithms are proposed for predicting SSD curves for chemicals that do not have sufficient available data. The methodology is applicable within congeneric classes of chemicals and has been tested and statistically validated on a group of organophosphorus insecticides. Values and limitations of the approach are discussed.

  7. Validating an evidence-based, self-rated fall risk questionnaire (FRQ) for older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubenstein, Laurence Z; Vivrette, Rebecca; Harker, Judith O; Stevens, Judy A; Kramer, B Josea

    2011-12-01

    Falls are a common, serious, and often unrecognized problem facing older adults. The objective of this study was to provide an initial clinical and statistical validation for a public health strategy of fall risk self-assessment by older adults using a Fall Risk Questionnaire (FRQ). Adults age 65+ (n=40) were recruited at a Los Angeles Veterans Affairs (VA) medical facility and at a local assisted living facility. Participants completed the FRQ self-assessment and results were compared to a "gold standard" of a clinical evaluation of risks using the American/British Geriatrics Society guidelines to assess independent predictors of falls: history of previous falls, fear of falling, gait/balance, muscle weakness, incontinence, sensation and proprioception, depression, vision, and medications. For the comparison, we used an iterative statistical approach, weighing items based on relative risk. There was strong agreement between the FRQ and clinical evaluation (kappa=.875, prisk) because of inadequate agreement with the clinical evaluation (kappa=.139, p=.321), the final FRQ had good concurrent validity. The FRQ goes beyond existing screening tools in that it is based on both evidence and clinical acceptability and has been initially validated with clinical examination data. A larger validation with longitudinal follow-up should determine the actual strength of the FRQ in predicting future falls. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Suicidal behavior and ethnicity of young females in Rotterdam, the Netherlands: rates and risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bergen, D.D.; Eikelenboom, M.; Smit, J.H.; van de Looij-Jansen, P.; Saharso, S.

    2010-01-01

    Objective. Although Western Europe is becoming increasingly multicultural, ethnic minorities are scarcely included in studies of suicidology. We investigated the prevalence of non-fatal suicidal behavior and examined risk factors in non-western female immigrant adolescents compared to majority

  9. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... independence and the common odds ratio with stroke severity as a layering variable. Results: No significant ... Conclusion: Independent of stroke severity, GFR is a surrogate in the assessment of the risk of survival in acute ..... outcome of acute stroke in the University College. Hospital Ibadan, Nigeria.

  10. Risk factors and mortality rate of severely asphyxiated neonates in a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Asphyxia is a serious clinical condition in which placental or pulmonary gas exchange is impaired or ceases altogether. Reports from Nigeria have shown that a large proportion of neonates are still being diagnosed with and managed for severe birth asphyxia. A large proportion of the risk factors are actually ...

  11. Tax Rates Effects on the Risk Level of Listed Viet Nam Wholesale ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The emerging stock market in Viet Nam has been developed since 2006 and was affected by the financial crisis 2007-2009. This study analyzes the impacts of tax policy on market risk for the listed firms in the wholesale and retail industry as it becomes necessary. First, by using quantitative and analytical methods to ...

  12. Resting Heart Rate Is Not a Good Predictor of a Clustered Cardiovascular Risk Score in Adolescents: The HELENA Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto César Ferreira de Moraes

    Full Text Available Resting heart rate (RHR reflects sympathetic nerve activity a significant association between RHR and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality has been reported in some epidemiologic studies.To analyze the predictive power and accuracy of RHR as a screening measure for individual and clustered cardiovascular risk in adolescents. The study comprised 769 European adolescents (376 boys participating in the HELENA cross-sectional study (2006-2008 were included in this study. Measurements on systolic blood pressure, HOMA index, triglycerides, TC/HDL-c, VO2máx and the sum of four skinfolds were obtained, and a clustered cardiovascular disease (CVD risk index was computed. The receiver operating characteristics curve was applied to calculate the power and accuracy of RHR to predict individual and clustered CVD risk factors.RHR showed low accuracy for screening CVD risk factors in both sexes (range 38.5%-54.4% in boys and 45.5%-54.3% in girls. Low specificity's (15.6%-19.7% in boys; 18.1%-20.0% in girls were also found. Nevertheless, the sensitivities were moderate-to-high (61.4%-89.1% in boys; 72.9%-90.3% in girls.RHR is a poor predictor of individual CVD risk factors and of clustered CVD and the estimates based on RHR are not accurate. The use of RHR as an indicator of CVD risk in adolescents may produce a biased screening of cardiovascular health in both sexes.

  13. Comparative determinants of 4-year cardiovascular event rates in stable outpatients at risk of or with atherothrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Deepak L; Eagle, Kim A; Ohman, E Magnus; Hirsch, Alan T; Goto, Shinya; Mahoney, Elizabeth M; Wilson, Peter W F; Alberts, Mark J; D'Agostino, Ralph; Liau, Chiau-Suong; Mas, Jean-Louis; Röther, Joachim; Smith, Sidney C; Salette, Geneviève; Contant, Charles F; Massaro, Joseph M; Steg, Ph Gabriel

    2010-09-22

    Clinicians and trialists have difficulty with identifying which patients are highest risk for cardiovascular events. Prior ischemic events, polyvascular disease, and diabetes mellitus have all been identified as predictors of ischemic events, but their comparative contributions to future risk remain unclear. To categorize the risk of cardiovascular events in stable outpatients with various initial manifestations of atherothrombosis using simple clinical descriptors. Outpatients with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral arterial disease or with multiple risk factors for atherothrombosis were enrolled in the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry and were followed up for as long as 4 years. Patients from 3647 centers in 29 countries were enrolled between 2003 and 2004 and followed up until 2008. Final database lock was in April 2009. Rates of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. A total of 45,227 patients with baseline data were included in this 4-year analysis. During the follow-up period, a total of 5481 patients experienced at least 1 event, including 2315 with cardiovascular death, 1228 with myocardial infarction, 1898 with stroke, and 40 with both a myocardial infarction and stroke on the same day. Among patients with atherothrombosis, those with a prior history of ischemic events at baseline (n = 21,890) had the highest rate of subsequent ischemic events (18.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.4%-19.1%); patients with stable coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral artery disease (n = 15,264) had a lower risk (12.2%; 95% CI, 11.4%-12.9%); and patients without established atherothrombosis but with risk factors only (n = 8073) had the lowest risk (9.1%; 95% CI, 8.3%-9.9%) (P < .001 for all comparisons). In addition, in multivariable modeling, the presence of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.36-1.53; P < .001), an ischemic event in the previous year (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1

  14. Premorbid teacher-rated social functioning predicts adult schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsuji, Thomas; Kline, Emily; Sorensen, Holger J.

    2013-01-01

    Social functioning deficits are a core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and may emerge years prior to the onset of diagnosable illness. The current study prospectively examines the relation between teacher-rated childhood social dysfunction and later mental illness among participants...... who were at genetic high-risk for schizophrenia and controls (n=244). The teacher-rated social functioning scale significantly predicted psychiatric outcomes (schizophrenia-spectrum vs. other psychiatric disorder vs. no mental illness). Poor premorbid social functioning appears to constitute a marker...

  15. Incidence rate and prevalence of major risk factors for ectopic pregnancy in the Pakistani population: mini-review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabira Sultana

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Ectopic pregnancy is the complication of pregnancy in which the product of conception implants outside the uterine cavity i.e. in the uterine tubes, cervix, ovaries and abdomen. It is lifethreatening emergency and a major cause of maternal morbidity and mortality. The incidence rate is 0.5%-1.5% of all pregnancies. Even though its incidence rate is drop off when compared with earlier decades, it is still the foremost causes of maternal morbidity and mortality in the first trimester of pregnancy, especially in developing countries. In Pakistan, it varies from 1:1 124 to 1:130 pregnancies. Risk factors associated to ectopic pregnancy are pelvic inflammatory disease, past history of miscarriages, age, parity, infertility, previous ectopic pregnancy, induction of ovulation and intrauterine device usage. The aim of this study is to review the published literature concerning the disease knowledge and major risk factors associated to ectopic pregnancy in Pakistan.

  16. Incident rate and risk factors for tuberculosis among patients with type 2 diabetes: retrospective cohort study in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Hanbo; Shi, Yan; Li, Yanyun; Shen, Xin; Li, Rui; Yang, Qundi; Pan, Qichao; Yan, Fei

    2017-07-01

    To examine the incident rate of tuberculosis (TB) and its associates among adults with type 2 diabetes in Shanghai, China. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 170 399 patients with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years who were registered in Shanghai community-based diabetes management system between 2004 and 2009. Their TB status was tracked until 31 December 2014. Cox regression was performed to identify the risk factors for TB. We documented 785 new TB cases during 654 977 person-years of follow-up. The incident rate of TB was 224.20 (206.69, 243.16) per 100 000 person-years among men and 51.34 (44.75, 58.92) per 100 000 person-years among women. A 1-unit increase of BMI was associated with a risk reduction in 16% (P < 0.01) for men and a 14% (P < 0.01) reduction for women. TB cases were more likely to be insulin-dependent [men: hazard ratio = 2.13 (1.29, 3.53); women: 3.28 (1.28, 8.39)] and had a poor glucose level initially [men: 1.21 (1.15, 1.27); women: 1.27 (1.18, 1.37)]. The risk factor for TB specific to men was a young age at diagnosis of diabetes, and the protective factor specific to women was actively engaging in physical activity. TB incident rate among patients with type 2 diabetes was substantially higher among men than among women. The risk of TB was reversely associated with initial BMI. The severity of poor glucose control among patients with diabetes was also linearly associated with the risk of TB. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Foreign exchange risk management : how are the largest non-financial companies in Norway managing their foreign exchange rate exposure?

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksen, Krister; Wedøe, Ola

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the largest non-financial companies in Norway manage their foreign exchange rate exposure. This is investigated through the use of a survey distributed to a sample the largest non-financial firms in Norway. According to our results, the largest non-financial companies in Norway have a predefined strategy for managing foreign exchange risk, which is defined by the board of directors or by the management in the organisation. The companies’ mai...

  18. Effect of Birth Cohort on Risk of Hip Fracture: Age-Specific Incidence Rates in the Framingham Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samelson, Elizabeth J.; Zhang, Yuqing; Kiel, Douglas P.; Hannan, Marian T.; Felson, David T.

    2002-01-01

    Objectives. This study examined the effect of birth cohort on incidence rates of hip fracture among women and men in the Framingham Study. Methods. Age-specific incidence rates of first hip fracture were presented according to tertile of year of birth for 5209 participants of the Framingham Study, a population-based cohort followed since 1948. Sex-specific incidence rate ratios were calculated by Cox regression to assess the relation between birth cohort and hip fracture incidence. Results. An increasing trend in hip fracture incidence rates was observed with year of birth for women (trend, P = .05) and men (trend, P = .03). Relative to those born from 1887 to 1900 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.0), age-specific incidence rates were greatest in the most recent birth cohort, born from 1911 to 1921 (IRR = 1.4 for women, IRR = 2.0 for men), and intermediate in those born from 1901 to 1910 (IRR = 1.2 for women, IRR = 1.5 for men). Conclusions. Results suggest risk of hip fracture is increasing for successive birth cohorts. Projections that fail to account for the increase in rates associated with birth cohort underestimate the future public health impact of hip fracture in the United States. PMID:11988460

  19. Cortisol, heart rate, and blood pressure as early markers of PTSD risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Matthew C; Hellman, Natalie; Abelson, James L; Rao, Uma

    2016-11-01

    Individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) typically exhibit altered hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) function and sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity. The goals of this study were to determine whether HPA and SNS alterations in the immediate aftermath of trauma predict subsequent PTSD symptom development and whether inconsistencies observed between studies can be explained by key demographic and methodological factors. This work informs secondary prevention of PTSD by identifying subgroups of trauma survivors at risk for PTSD. This meta-analysis (26 studies, N=5186 individuals) revealed that higher heart rate measured soon after trauma exposure was associated with higher PTSD symptoms subsequently (r=0.13). Neither cortisol (r=-0.07) nor blood pressure (diastolic: r=-0.01; systolic: r=0.02) were associated with PTSD symptoms which may be influenced by methodological limitations. Associations between risk markers (heart rate, cortisol, systolic blood pressure) and PTSD symptoms were in the positive direction for younger samples and negative direction for older samples. These findings extend developmental traumatology models of PTSD by revealing an age-related shift in the presentation of early risk markers. More work will be needed to identify risk markers and pathways to PTSD while addressing methodological limitations in order to shape and target preventive interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Combined-modality therapy for early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma: maintaining high cure rates while minimizing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Chris R; Beaven, Anne W; Diehl, Louis F; Prosnitz, Leonard R

    2012-12-01

    Multiple randomized studies have demonstrated that chemotherapy, most commonly ABVD (doxorubicin [Adriamycin], bleomycin, vinblastine, dacarbazine), followed by consolidation radiation therapy is the most effective treatment program for early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma. With a combined-modality approach, the great majority of patients are cured of their disease. It is also apparent that both chemotherapy and radiation therapy can increase the risk of complications in the decades following treatment, with second cancers and cardiac disease being the most common. Most studies,evaluating such risks primarily include patients treated in decades past with what are now considered outdated approaches, including high-dose, wide-field radiation therapy. The treatment of Hodgkin lymphoma has evolved significantly, particularly in regard to radiation therapy. In combination with chemotherapy, much lower doses and smaller fields are employed, with success equivalent to that achieved using older methods. Many studies have shown a significant decline in both the rates of second cancers and the risk of cardiac disease with low-dose radiation confined to the original extent of disease. In favorable patients, as few as 2 cycles of ABVD have been shown to be effective. The current combined-modality approach seeks to maintain high cure rates but minimize risks by optimizing both chemotherapy and radiation therapy

  1. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  2. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  3. Rates and risks for co-morbid depression in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pouwer, F; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Nijpels, G

    2003-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: There is accumulating evidence that depression is common in people with Type 2 diabetes. However, most prevalence-studies are uncontrolled and could also be inaccurate from selection-bias, as they are conducted in specialized treatment settings. We studied the prevalence and risk...... could play an essential role in the development of depression in Type 2 diabetes. These findings can enable clinicians and researchers to identify high-risk groups and set up prevention and treatment programs....... factors of co-morbid depression in a community-based sample of older adults, comparing Type 2 diabetic patients with healthy control subjects. METHODS: A large (n=3107) community-based study in Dutch adults (55-85 years of age) was conducted. Pervasive depression was defined as a CES-D score greater than...

  4. Do laboratory frontal crash test programs predict driver fatality risk? Evidence from within vehicle line variation in test ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harless, David W; Hoffer, George E

    2007-09-01

    A number of studies have examined whether the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) frontal crash test results reliably indicate the risk of fatality or injury in serious crashes. The conclusions of these studies are mixed. Generally, studies that examine crashes in the circumstances as close as possible to those of the laboratory test find that crash test results do predict real-world risk, but studies of crashes outside those specific circumstances find either no support for the predictive validity of crash test results or limited support with important inconsistencies. We provide a new test of the predictive validity of the crash test results using information from multiple crash tests within vehicle lines, thus controlling for systematic differences in driver behavior across vehicle lines. Among drivers of passenger cars, we find large, statistically significant differences in fatality risk for vehicles with one- to four-star NHTSA ratings versus a five-star rating. We also examine the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's frontal offset crash test, though our sample of vehicle lines tested twice or more is considerably smaller than for NHTSA ratings. Our results also support the predictive validity of the frontal offset crash test results for passenger cars, but not for trucks.

  5. High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Alone for Localized Prostate Cancer in Patients at Moderate or High Risk of Biochemical Recurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoskin, Peter [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Rojas, Ana, E-mail: arc03@btconnect.com [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom); Lowe, Gerry; Bryant, Linda; Ostler, Peter; Hughes, Rob; Milner, Jessica; Cladd, Helen [Cancer Centre, Mount Vernon Hospital, Northwood, Middlesex (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    Purpose: To evaluate genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) morbidity and biochemical control of disease in patients with localized prostate adenocarcinoma treated with escalating doses per fraction of high-dose rate brachytherapy alone. Methods and Materials: A total of 197 patients were treated with 34 Gy in four fractions, 36 Gy in four fractions, 31.5 Gy in three fractions, or 26 Gy in two fractions. Median follow-up times were 60, 54, 36, and 6 months, respectively. Results: Incidence of early Grade {>=} 3 GU morbidity was 3% to 7%, and Grade 4 was 0% to 4%. During the first 12 weeks, the highest mean International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) value was 14, and between 6 months and 5 years it was 8. Grade 3 or 4 early GI morbidity was not observed. The 3-year actuarial rate of Grade 3 GU was 3% to 16%, and was 3% to 7% for strictures requiring surgery (4-year rate). An incidence of 1% Grade 3 GI events was seen at 3 years. Late Grade 4 GU or GI events were not observed. At 3 years, 99% of patients with intermediate-risk and 91% with high-risk disease were free of biochemical relapse (log-rank p = 0.02). Conclusions: There was no significant difference in urinary and rectal morbidity between schedules. Biochemical control of disease in patients with intermediate and high risk of relapse was good.

  6. Consistency rates and asymptotic normality of the high risk conditional for functional data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabhi Abbes

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The maximum of the conditional hazard function is a parameter of great importance in seismicity studies, because it constitutes the maximum risk of occurrence of an earthquake in a given interval of time. Using the kernel nonparametric estimates of the first derivative of the conditional hazard function, we establish uniform convergence properties and asymptotic normality of an estimate of the maximum in the context of independence data.

  7. Consistency rates and asymptotic normality of the high risk conditional for functional data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabhi Abbes

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The maximum of the conditional hazard function is a parameter of great importance in seismicity studies, because it constitutes the maximum risk of occurrence of an earthquake in a given interval of time. Using the kernel nonparametric estimates of the first derivative of the conditional hazard function, we establish uniform convergence properties and asymptotic normality of an estimate of the maximum in the context of independence data.

  8. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    OpenAIRE

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-01-01

    The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial...

  9. Low heart rate as a risk factor for child and adolescent proactive aggressive and impulsive psychopathic behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raine, Adrian; Fung, Annis Lai Chu; Portnoy, Jill; Choy, Olivia; Spring, Victoria L

    2014-01-01

    Although low resting heart rate has been viewed as a well-replicated biological correlate of child and adolescent antisocial behavior, little is known about how it interacts with psychosocial adversity in predisposing to both reactive-proactive aggression and psychopathy, and whether this relationship generalizes to an East Asian population. This study tests the hypothesis that low resting heart rate will be associated with aggression and psychopathic traits, and that heart rate will interact with adversity in predisposing to these antisocial traits. Resting heart rate was assessed in 334 Hong Kong male and female schoolchildren aged 11-17 years. A social adversity index was calculated from a psychosocial interview of the parent, while parents assessed their children on the Reactive-Proactive Aggression Questionnaire and the Antisocial Personality Screening Device. Low resting heart rate was significantly associated with higher proactive aggression, impulsive features of psychopathy, and total child psychopathy. Low resting heart rate interacted with high psychosocial adversity in explaining higher reactive (but not proactive) aggression, as well as impulsive psychopathy. These findings provide support for a biosocial perspective of reactive aggression and impulsive psychopathy, and document low resting heart rate as a robust correlate of both childhood impulsive psychopathic behavior and proactive aggression. To our knowledge, this study is the first to document low resting heart rate as a correlate of child psychopathy and the second to establish low heart rate as a risk factor of antisocial behavior in an East Asian population. The findings provide further evidence for both low resting heart rate as a potential biomarker for childhood psychopathic and aggressive behavior, and also a biosocial perspective on childhood antisocial behavior. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. A longitudinal study investigating neural processing of speech envelope modulation rates in children with (a family risk for) dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vos, Astrid; Vanvooren, Sophie; Vanderauwera, Jolijn; Ghesquière, Pol; Wouters, Jan

    2017-08-01

    Recent evidence suggests that a fundamental deficit in the synchronization of neural oscillations to temporal information in speech may underlie phonological processing problems in dyslexia. Since previous studies were performed cross-sectionally in school-aged children or adults, developmental aspects of neural auditory processing in relation to reading acquisition and dyslexia remain to be investigated. The present longitudinal study followed 68 children during development from pre-reader (5 years old) to beginning reader (7 years old) and more advanced reader (9 years old). Thirty-six children had a family risk for dyslexia and 14 children eventually developed dyslexia. EEG recordings of auditory steady-state responses to 4 and 20 Hz modulations, corresponding to syllable and phoneme rates, were collected at each point in time. Our results demonstrate an increase in neural synchronization to phoneme-rate modulations around the onset of reading acquisition. This effect was negatively correlated with later reading and phonological skills, indicating that children who exhibit the largest increase in neural synchronization to phoneme rates, develop the poorest reading and phonological skills. Accordingly, neural synchronization to phoneme-rate modulations was found to be significantly higher in beginning and more advanced readers with dyslexia. We found no developmental effects regarding neural synchronization to syllable rates, nor any effects of a family risk for dyslexia. Altogether, our findings suggest that the onset of reading instruction coincides with an increase in neural responsiveness to phoneme-rate modulations, and that the extent of this increase is related to (the outcome of) reading development. Hereby, dyslexic children persistently demonstrate atypically high neural synchronization to phoneme rates from the beginning of reading acquisition onwards. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. 4C.03: SHORT-TERM HEART RATE VARIABILITY AND COGNITIVE FUNCTION IN OLDER SUBJECTS AT RISK OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahinrad, S; Van Heemst, D; Macfarlane, P W; Stott, D J; Jukema, J W; De Craen, A J M; Sabayan, B

    2015-06-01

    To test the cross-sectional and longitudinal association of heart rate variability measured from 10-second electrocardiogram recordings with cognitive function in older subjects at high risk of cardiovascular disease. We studied 3,583 men and women, mean age 75.0 years, who were enrolled in PROSPER (PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk) study. From baseline 10-second electrocardiograms the standard deviation of normal-to-normal RR intervals was calculated as the index of heart rate variability. Four domains of cognitive function testing reaction time, processing speed and immediate and delayed memory were assessed at baseline and repeated during a mean follow-up of 3.2 years. Using analyses of covariance, we calculated the adjusted mean values of baseline and annual changes of cognitive scores in thirds of heart rate variability. Participants with lower heart rate variability had worse cognitive function at baseline including reaction time, processing speed and immediate and delayed memory (all p-values heart rate variability had a steeper cognitive decline in reaction time (mean annual change of: 1.49 seconds in the lowest tertile, 0.84 seconds in the middle tertile and 1.06 seconds in the highest tertile, p-value = 0.05) and processing speed (mean annual change of: -0.51 digits coded in the lowest tertile, -0.45 digits coded in the middle tertile and -0.35 digits coded in the highest tertile, p-value = 0.009). There was no significant difference in annual changes of immediate and delayed memory between heart rate variability groups. All these associations remained unchanged after adjustment for medications, cardiovascular risk factors and co-morbidities. The present study indicates that lower heart rate variability measured from 10-second electrocardiogram recording is associated with worse executive function at baseline as well as future decline in executive function independent of cardiovascular risk factors and co-morbidities.

  12. Fetal Heart Rate Reactivity Differs by Women's Psychiatric Status: An Early Marker for Developmental Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monk, Catherine; Sloan, Richard P.; Myers, Michael M.; Ellman, Lauren; Werner, Elizabeth; Jeon, Jiyeon; Tager, Felice; Fifer, William P.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether there are differences in fetal heart rate (FHR) reactivity associated with women's psychiatric status. Method: In 57 women in their 36th to 38th week of pregnancy (mean age 27 [+ or -] 6 years), electrocardiogram, blood pressure (BP), respiration (RSP), and FHR were measured during baseline and a psychological…

  13. Development and Validation of the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener-Student Rating Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Embse, Nathaniel P.; Iaccarino, Stephanie; Mankin, Ariel; Kilgus, Stephen P.; Magen, Eran

    2017-01-01

    School systems are the primary providers for the increasing number of children with mental health needs. School-based universal screening offers a valuable way to identify children that would benefit from school-based mental health services. However, many existing screening systems rely on teacher ratings alone and do not incorporate student…

  14. Resting heart rate and risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in asymptomatic aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Anders M; Bang, Casper N; Berg, Ronan M G

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: An elevated resting heart rate (RHR) may be an early sign of cardiac failure, but its prognostic value during watchful waiting in asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) is largely unknown. METHODS: RHR was determined by annual ECGs in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS...

  15. 76 FR 37030 - Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-24

    ..., with certain exceptions, are financial derivatives such as futures, options, interest rate swaps and... to evaluate any hedge transaction using derivatives must include the ability to capture all options... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 703 Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset...

  16. ARE SMES MORE CONFORTABLE WITH SMALL DOMESTIC LENDERS? (II –EVIDENCE FOR ROMANIAN SMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badulescu Daniel

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on a consistent literature presented in the previous part of our paper, and analysing our research results, carried out on a significant number of SMEs from Romania in 2011, the purpose of this paper is to examine how SMEs are affected and how they perceive the bank involvement in financing SMEs needs, in terms of the nature and characteristics of organizational structure of these lenders. We have found that, despite of the recent development of the crisis and the decision of the most of important European banks to reduce theirs involvement in Central and Eastern Europe, the mostly of the Romanian SMEs considered they are not ignored or under-privileged by large, international banks operating in Romania.

  17. Decreasing the infusion rate reduces the proarrhythmic risk of NS-7

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Detre, Elke; Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Beekman, Jet D

    2005-01-01

    1 The rate of infusion has been suggested to be important for drug-induced torsades de pointes (TdP) arrhythmias. We investigated the repolarisation-prolonging effects and proarrhythmic properties of NS-7, a neuroprotective drug in development, using two different infusion rates. 2 A fast (5 min...... intravenously (i.v.)) escalating dosing regimen (0.3 and 3.0 mg kg(-1), n=4) of NS-7 was investigated in anaesthetised control dogs in sinus rhythm (SR). This was compared to a slow infusion (60 min i.v.) of one dose (3.0 mg kg(-1), n=4) NS-7. The similar dosing regimens were investigated in anaesthetised dogs...... with chronic, complete AV block (CAVB), an animal model of TdP (n=6). 3 No electrophysiological effects were seen after 0.3 mg kg(-1) NS-7. Fast infusion of 3.0 mg kg(-1) caused prolongation of repolarisation, for example, heart rate corrected QT interval (QT(c)): in SR: 6+/-1%; in CAVB: 10+/-7%, which...

  18. Is Cholesteatoma a Risk Factor for Graft Success Rate in Chronic Otitis Media Surgery?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Faramarzi

    2015-11-01

    Materials and Methods: The present retrospective, study-controlled study investigated 422 ears undergoing COM surgery. The minimum and maximum postoperative follow-up periods were 6 and 48 months, respectively. The study group consisted of patients with cholesteatomatous COM, while the control group included patients with non-cholesteatomatous COM, who had undergone ear surgery.  Postoperative graft success rate and audiological test results were recorded and the effect of cholesteatoma on graft success rate was investigated.  Results: The overall GSR was 92.4%. In the study group (COM with cholesteatoma,the postoperative GSR, mean speech reception threshold improvement, and mean air-bone gap gain were 95.3%, 2.1 dB, and 3.2 dB, respectively. In the control group (COM without cholesteatoma, however, these measurements were 90.9%, 9.4 dB, and 9.1 dB, respectively. The difference between the two groups was not statistically significant.  Conclusion:  The study results suggest that cholesteatoma is not a significant prognostic factor in graft success rate.

  19. Literacy and race as risk factors for low rates of advance directives in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Katherine R; Federman, Alex D; McCarthy, Danielle M; Sudore, Rebecca; Curtis, Laura M; Baker, David W; Wilson, Elizabeth A H; Hasnain-Wynia, Romana; Wolf, Michael S; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K

    2013-03-01

    To examine the effect of the relationship between literacy and other individual-level factors on having an advance directive (AD). Face-to-face structured interview. Participants were recruited from an academic general internal medicine clinic and one of four federally qualified health centers in Chicago. Seven hundred eighty-four adults aged 55 to 74. Assessment of participant literacy, sociodemographic factors, and having an AD for medical care. One-eighth (12.4%) of participants with low literacy, 26.6% of those with marginal literacy, and 49.5% of those with adequate literacy reported having an AD (P literacy and race were independently associated with less likelihood of having an AD. Specifically, participants with limited literacy (risk ratio (RR) = 0.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.22-0.95) and African Americans (RR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.47-0.88) were less likely to have an AD. Exploratory analyses showed that there was not a significant interaction between the effect of literacy and race. Limited literacy and African-American race were significant risk factors for not having an AD in this cohort of older adults. Literacy and race probably represent two separate but important causal pathways that need to be understood to improve how the healthcare system ascertains and protects individuals' advance care preferences. © 2013, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2013, The American Geriatrics Society.

  20. Estimation of value at risk in currency exchange rate portfolio using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurrahmat, Mohamad Husein; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we discuss the problem in measuring the risk in a portfolio based on value at risk (VaR) using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula. The approach based on the consideration that the assumption of normality over time for the return can not be fulfilled, and there is non-linear correlation for dependent model structure among the variables that lead to the estimated VaR be inaccurate. Moreover, the leverage effect also causes the asymmetric effect of dynamic variance and shows the weakness of the GARCH models due to its symmetrical effect on conditional variance. Asymmetric GJR-GARCH models are used to filter the margins while the Copulas are used to link them together into a multivariate distribution. Then, we use copulas to construct flexible multivariate distributions with different marginal and dependence structure, which is led to portfolio joint distribution does not depend on the assumptions of normality and linear correlation. VaR obtained by the analysis with confidence level 95% is 0.005586. This VaR derived from the best Copula model, t-student Copula with marginal distribution of t distribution.

  1. Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Jesús; Vega-Garcia, Cristina; Chuvieco, Emilio

    2009-02-01

    This paper identifies human factors associated with high forest fire risk in Spain and analyses the spatial distribution of fire occurrence in the country. The spatial units were 6,066 municipalities of the Spanish peninsular territory and Balearic Islands. The study covered a 13-year series of fire occurrence data. One hundred and eight variables were generated and input to a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) to model different factors related to fire ignition. After exploratory analysis, 29 were selected to build a predictive model of human fire ignition using logistic regression analysis. The binary model estimated the probability of high or low occurrence of forest fires, as defined by an ignition danger index that is currently used by the Spanish forest service (number of fires divided by forest area in each municipality). Thirteen explanatory variables were identified by the model. They were related to agricultural landscape fragmentation, agricultural abandonment and development processes. The prediction agreement found between the model binary outputs and the historical fire data was 85.3% for the model building dataset (60% of municipalities). A slightly lower predictive power (76.2%) was found for the validation data (the remaining 40%). The probabilistic output of the logistic was significantly related to the raw ignition index (Spearman correlation of 0.710) used by the Spanish Forest Service. Therefore, the model can be considered a good predictor of human-caused fire risk, aiding spatial decisions related to prevention planning in Spanish municipalities.

  2. Do Differences in Risk Factors Explain the Lower Rates of Coronary Heart Disease in Japanese Versus U.S. Women?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willcox, Bradley J.; Usui, Takeshi; Carr, John Jeffrey; Barinas-Mitchell, Emma J.M.; Masaki, Kamal H.; Watanabe, Makoto; Tracy, Russell P.; Bertolet, Marianne H.; Evans, Rhobert W.; Nishimura, Kunihiko; Sutton-Tyrrell, Kim; Kuller, Lewis H.; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Background Mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) in women in Japan is one of the lowest in developed countries. In an attempt to shed some light on possible reasons of lower CHD in women in Japan compared with the United States, we extensively reviewed and analyzed existing national data and recent literature. Methods We searched recent epidemiological studies that reported incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and examined risk factors for CHD in women in Japan. Then, we compared trends in risk factors between women currently aged 50–69 years in Japan and the United States, using national statistics and other available resources. Results Recent epidemiological studies have clearly shown that AMI incidence in women in Japan is lower than that reported from other countries, and that lipids, blood pressure (BP), diabetes, smoking, and early menopause are independent risk factors. Comparing trends in risk factors between women in Japan and the United States, current levels of serum total cholesterol are higher in women in Japan and levels have been similar at least since 1990. Levels of BP have been higher in in Japan for the past 3 decades. Prevalence of type 2 diabetes has been similar in Japanese and white women currently aged 60–69 for the past 2 decades. In contrast, rates of cigarette smoking, although low in women in both countries, have been lower in women in Japan. Conclusions Differences in risk factors and their trends are unlikely to explain the difference in CHD rates in women in Japan and the United States. Determining the currently unknown factors responsible for low CHD mortality in women in Japan may lead to new strategy for CHD prevention. PMID:24073782

  3. The rate of and risk factors for frequent hospitalization in systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Korean lupus network registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J W; Park, D J; Kang, J H; Choi, S E; Yim, Y R; Kim, J E; Lee, K E; Wen, L; Kim, T J; Park, Y W; Sung, Y K; Lee, S S

    2016-11-01

    Objectives The survival rate of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus has improved in the last few decades, but the rate of hospitalization and health care costs for these patients remain higher than in the general population. Thus, we evaluated the rate of hospitalization and associated risk factors in an inception cohort of Korean patients with lupus. Methods Of the 507 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus enrolled in the KORean lupus NETwork, we investigated an inception cohort consisting of 196 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus presenting within 6 months of diagnosis based on the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria. We evaluated the causes of hospitalization, demographic characteristics, and laboratory and clinical data at the time of systemic lupus erythematosus diagnosis of hospitalized patients and during a follow-up period. We calculated the hospitalization rate as the number of total hospitalizations divided by the disease duration, and defined "frequent hospitalization" as hospitalization more than once per year. Results Of the 196 patients, 117 (59.6%) were admitted to hospital a total of 257 times during the 8-year follow-up period. Moreover, 22 (11.2%) patients were hospitalized frequently. The most common reasons for hospitalization included disease flares, infection, and pregnancy-related morbidity. In the univariate regression analysis, malar rash, arthritis, pericarditis, renal involvement, fever, systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index > 12, hemoglobin level risk factors for frequent hospitalization. Conclusions Our results showed that frequent hospitalization occurred in 11.2% of hospitalized patients and arthritis, pericarditis, and anti-Sjögren's syndrome A antibody positivity at the time of diagnosis were risk factors for frequent hospitalization.

  4. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S., E-mail: mvmarchesi@hotmail.com, E-mail: sdsc@cdtn.br, E-mail: vmfj@cdtn.br, E-mail: ana.ladeira@cdtn.br, E-mail: naruhikohama@hotmail.com [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill.

  5. Sensitivity analysis of the leaching rate parameter in assessing the environmental risk of phosphogypsum application in sanitary landfills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchesi, Marcos Vinicius A.; Hama, Naruhiko; Jacomino, Vanusa M.F.; Ladeira, Ana Claudia Q.; Cota, Stela D.S.

    2013-01-01

    The attack with sulfuric acid to phosphate rock produces both phosphoric acid, basic raw material in the manufacture of fertilizers, as a by-product called phosphogypsum. Phosphogypsum is composed mostly of calcium sulfate dihydrated, but may have high levels of impurities from the phosphate rock matrix as a series of natural radionuclides, and heavy metals (e.g. Cd, Zn) and metalloids (e.g. , As and Se). Although it is used for agricultural purposes and more recently in construction, in Brazil the generation rate estimated at six million tons per year is much higher than the amount spent on existing alternatives, and therefore mostly deposited in piles in the same place production, causing thereby the risk of contamination of soil and water resources of the region and providing risk to human health. Taken into account the need to find alternative arrangements for phosphogypsum and reduce the impact generated by its contaminants, this study aims to analyze the sensitivity of the leaching rate parameter in the environmental risk evaluation of the application of phosphogypsum in landfills through mathematical modeling, where it is evaluated the concentration of heavy metals and radionuclides in the layer of the soil under the clay layer of the landfill

  6. Assessing Drawdown-at-Risk in Brazilian Real Foreign Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Ratton Brandi

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of the stochastic behavior of financial series has become widespread over the literature. There is empirical and theoretical evidence that the total stock price change over a long period is usually concentrated in the a few hectic runs of trading days. The drawdown is a random variable which provides information on alternative characteristics of market behavior during these periods. In this work, we use distributions from extreme value theory to model the severity of drawdowns and drawups. We illustrate using nine currency exchange rates and gold.

  7. Benefits and risks of using smart pumps to reduce medication error rates: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohashi, Kumiko; Dalleur, Olivia; Dykes, Patricia C; Bates, David W

    2014-12-01

    Smart infusion pumps have been introduced to prevent medication errors and have been widely adopted nationally in the USA, though they are not always used in Europe or other regions. Despite widespread usage of smart pumps, intravenous medication errors have not been fully eliminated. Through a systematic review of recent studies and reports regarding smart pump implementation and use, we aimed to identify the impact of smart pumps on error reduction and on the complex process of medication administration, and strategies to maximize the benefits of smart pumps. The medical literature related to the effects of smart pumps for improving patient safety was searched in PUBMED, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2000-2014) and relevant papers were selected by two researchers. After the literature search, 231 papers were identified and the full texts of 138 articles were assessed for eligibility. Of these, 22 were included after removal of papers that did not meet the inclusion criteria. We assessed both the benefits and negative effects of smart pumps from these studies. One of the benefits of using smart pumps was intercepting errors such as the wrong rate, wrong dose, and pump setting errors. Other benefits include reduction of adverse drug event rates, practice improvements, and cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, the current issues or negative effects related to using smart pumps were lower compliance rates of using smart pumps, the overriding of soft alerts, non-intercepted errors, or the possibility of using the wrong drug library. The literature suggests that smart pumps reduce but do not eliminate programming errors. Although the hard limits of a drug library play a main role in intercepting medication errors, soft limits were still not as effective as hard limits because of high override rates. Compliance in using smart pumps is key towards effectively preventing errors. Opportunities for improvement include upgrading drug

  8. Impact of Advance Rate on Entrapment Risk of a Double-Shielded TBM in Squeezing Ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasanpour, Rohola; Rostami, Jamal; Barla, Giovanni

    2015-05-01

    Shielded tunnel boring machines (TBMs) can get stuck in squeezing ground due to excessive tunnel convergence under high in situ stress. This typically coincides with extended machine stoppages, when the ground has sufficient time to undergo substantial displacements. Excessive convergence of the ground beyond the designated overboring means ground pressure against the shield and high shield frictional resistance that, in some cases, cannot be overcome by the TBM thrust system. This leads to machine entrapment in the ground, which causes significant delays and requires labor-intensive and risky operations of manual excavation to release the machine. To evaluate the impact of the time factor on the possibility of machine entrapment, a comprehensive 3D finite difference simulation of a double-shielded TBM in squeezing ground was performed. The modeling allowed for observation of the impact of the tunnel advance rate on the possibility of machine entrapment in squeezing ground. For this purpose, the model included rock mass properties related to creep in severe squeezing conditions. This paper offers an overview of the modeling results for a given set of rock mass and TBM parameters, as well as lining characteristics, including the magnitude of displacement and contact forces on shields and ground pressure on segmental lining versus time for different advance rates.

  9. Temporal evolution of the risk factors associated with low birth weight rates in Brazilian capitals (1996-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souza Buriol, Viviane Costa; Hirakata, Vânia; Goldani, Marcelo Zubaran; da Silva, Clécio Homrich

    2016-01-01

    To analyze the trend of low birth weight (LBW) and its determinants in Brazilian state capitals between 1996 and 2011. We intended to determine which variables are associated with LBW during the period studied. This is a cross-sectional study that used data from the National Information System of Live Births from 26 state capitals and Brasilia (the federal capital), divided into five geographical regions. The Average Annual Percentage of Change (AAPC) was used to assess the possible time trend in the low birth weight rates for considering all regions together and each region separately, according to each variable, and the Poisson regression was calculated in order to demonstrate time trends in low birth weight and the impact of variables (age and educational maternal level, antenatal visits, type of delivery, and gestational age) during the period. All variables were analyzed together using the Poisson regression as well. From the total of 11,200,255 live births used in this study, there was a significant reduction in the number of live births, especially in the more developed regions. The low birth weight rate was 8 %, and it was stable during the period. Considering regional trends, the rate was higher in the Southeast and South regions, and significantly higher in the North, Northeast, and Central West regions. Improvements in maternal education and antenatal care coverage reduced the risk for low birth weight in all regions. Also, there was an increase in caesarean sections in all regions, with a small impact on low birth weight rates. Improvements in education and health care reduced the risk for low birth weight in all Brazilian regions during the period of study. Trends in low birth weight rates and the associated factors differ from region to region, showing different stages of demographic, epidemiological and developmental transition in Brazil. The present study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee at the Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre

  10. A TWO-WAY ROAD: RATES OF HIV INFECTION AND BEHAVIORAL RISK FACTORS AMONG DEPORTED MEXICAN LABOR MIGRANTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangel, M. Gudelia; Martinez-Donate, Ana P.; Hovell, Melbourne; Sipan, Carol L.; Zellner, Jennifer A.; Gonzalez-Fagoaga, Eduardo; Kelley, Norma J.; Asadi-Gonzalez, Ahmed; Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos

    2012-01-01

    A large number of Mexican migrants are deported to Mexico and released in the North Mexican border region every year. Despite their volume and high vulnerability, little is known about the level of HIV infection and related risk behaviors among this hard-to-reach population. We conducted a cross-sectional, probability survey with deported Mexican migrants in Tijuana, Mexico (N=693) and estimated levels of HIV infection and behavioral risk factors among this migrant flow. The sample and population estimated rates of HIV for deported males were 1.23% and 0.80%, respectively. No positive cases were found among the female sample. We found high lifetime rates of reported sexually transmitted infections (22.3%) and last 12-months rates of unprotected sex (63.0%), sex with multiple sexual partners (18.1%), casual partners (25.7%), and sex workers (8.6%), compared to U.S. and Mexico adults. HIV prevention, testing, and treatment programs for this large, vulnerable, and transnational population need to be implemented in both the U.S. and Mexico. PMID:22562390

  11. High dose rate brachytherapy for carcinoma of the cervix: risk factors for late rectal complications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uno, Takashi; Itami, Jun; Aruga, Moriyo; Kotaka, Kikuo; Fujimoto, Hajime; Minoura, Shigeki

    1996-01-01

    Purpose/Objective: To determine the incidence of late rectal complications in patients treated with high dose rate brachytherapy for FIGO stage IIB, IIIB carcinoma of the uterine cervix, and to evaluate the treatment factors associated with an increased probability of treatment complications. Materials and Methods: Records of 100 patients with FIGO IIB or IIIB cervical carcinoma treated with definitive irradiation using high dose rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-ICR) between 1977 and 1994 were retrospectively reviewed. For each HDR-ICR session, 6 Gy isodose volume was reconstructed three dimensionally and the following three parameters were determined to represent this isodose volume, length (L); maximum longitudinal distance of 6 Gy isodose area in an oblique frontal plane containing the intrauterine applicator, width (W); maximum width of 6 Gy isodose area in the same plane, height (H); maximum dimension of 6 Gy isodose area perpendicular to the intrauterine applicator determined in the oblique sagittal plane. Point P/Q (2 cm ventral/dorsal from the proximal retention point of the intrauterine source) and point R/S (2 cm ventral/dorsal from the midpoint of the ovoid sources) were also defined retrospectively and HDR-ICR dose at these points were calculated. Statistical analyses were performed to determine the treatment factors predictive of late rectal complications. Results: The 5-year cumulative cause-specific disease-free survival rate was 50% for all, 74% for Stage IIB, and 38% for Stage IIIB, with a significant difference between two FIGO Stages (p=0.0004). Of patients treated for both stages, 30% and 36% had experienced moderate to severe (Grade 2-4) complications at 3 and 5 years, respectively. Average H value (p=0.013) and cumulative point S dose by HDR-ICR (p=0.020) were significantly correlated with the incidence of late rectal complications (Student's t-test), whereas these factors did not significantly affect the probability of pelvic control. No

  12. Reduced glomerular filtration rate and its association with clinical outcome in older patients at risk of vascular events: secondary analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Ford

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR is associated with increased cardiovascular risk in young and middle aged individuals. Associations with cardiovascular disease and mortality in older people are less clearly established. We aimed to determine the predictive value of the GFR for mortality and morbidity using data from the 5,804 participants randomized in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Glomerular filtration rate was estimated (eGFR using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation and was categorized in the ranges ([20-40], [40-50], [50-60] >or= 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2. Baseline risk factors were analysed by category of eGFR, with and without adjustment for other risk factors. The associations between baseline eGFR and morbidity and mortality outcomes, accrued after an average of 3.2 y, were investigated using Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for traditional risk factors. We tested for evidence of an interaction between the benefit of statin treatment and baseline eGFR status. Age, low-density lipoprotein (LDL and high-density lipoprotein (HDL cholesterol, C-reactive protein (CRP, body mass index, fasting glucose, female sex, histories of hypertension and vascular disease were associated with eGFR (p = 0.001 or less after adjustment for other risk factors. Low eGFR was independently associated with risk of all cause mortality, vascular mortality, and other noncancer mortality and with fatal and nonfatal coronary and heart failure events (hazard ratios adjusted for CRP and other risk factors (95% confidence intervals [CIs] for eGFR or= 60 ml/min/1.73m(2 respectively 2.04 (1.48-2.80, 2.37 (1.53-3.67, 3.52 (1.78-6.96, 1.64 (1.18-2.27, 3.31 (2.03-5.41. There were no nominally statistically significant interactions (p < 0.05 between randomized treatment allocation and eGFR for clinical outcomes, with the exception of the outcome of coronary heart disease death or

  13. Reoperation rate and risk factors of elective spinal surgery for degenerative spondylolisthesis: minimum 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Shunsuke; Yagi, Mitsuru; Machida, Masayoshi; Yasuda, Akimasa; Konomi, Tsunehiko; Miyake, Atsushi; Fujiyoshi, Kanehiro; Kaneko, Shinjiro; Takemitsu, Masakazu; Machida, Masafumi; Yato, Yoshiyuki; Asazuma, Takashi

    2015-07-01

    The favorable outcome of surgical treatment for degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis (DS) is widely recognized, but some patients require reoperation because of complications, such as pseudoarthrosis, persistent pain, infection, and progressive degenerative changes. Among these changes, adjacent segmental disease (ASD) and same segmental disease (SSD) are common reasons for reoperation. However, the relative risks of the various factors and their interactions are unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine the longitudinal reoperation rate after surgery for DS and to assess the incidence and independent risk factors for ASD and SSD. This study is a retrospective consecutive case series of patients with DS who were surgically treated. We assessed 163 consecutive patients who were surgically treated for DS between 2003 and 2008. Individual patients were followed for at least 5 years after the initial surgery. The primary end point was any type of second lumbar surgery. Radiographic measurements and demographic data were reviewed. We compared patients who underwent reoperation with those who did not. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the relative risk of ASD and SSD in patients surgically treated for DS. Radiographic measurements and demographic data were reviewed. We identified the incidence and risk factors for reoperation, and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to determine the independent risk factors for revision surgery for SSD and for ASD as the two distinct reasons for the reoperation. Age, gender, etiology, body mass index (BMI), and other radiographic data were analyzed to determine the risk factors for developing SSD and ASD. The average patient age was 65.8 (50-81 years; 73 women and 90 men; mean follow-up, 5.9±1.6 years). Eighty-nine patients had posterior lumbar interbody fusion and 74 had laminotomies. Twenty-two patients had L3-L4 involvement and 141 had L4-L5 involvement. The cumulative reoperation rate was 6

  14. How the growth rate of host cells affects cancer risk in a deterministic way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draghi, Clément; Viger, Louise; Denis, Fabrice; Letellier, Christophe

    2017-09-01

    It is well known that cancers are significantly more often encountered in some tissues than in other ones. In this paper, by using a deterministic model describing the interactions between host, effector immune and tumor cells at the tissue level, we show that this can be explained by the dependency of tumor growth on parameter values characterizing the type as well as the state of the tissue considered due to the "way of life" (environmental factors, food consumption, drinking or smoking habits, etc.). Our approach is purely deterministic and, consequently, the strong correlation (r = 0.99) between the number of detectable growing tumors and the growth rate of cells from the nesting tissue can be explained without evoking random mutation arising during DNA replications in nonmalignant cells or "bad luck". Strategies to limit the mortality induced by cancer could therefore be well based on improving the way of life, that is, by better preserving the tissue where mutant cells randomly arise.

  15. Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitali, Roberto; Lutomski, Michael G.

    2004-01-01

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) Program uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as part of its Continuous Risk Management Process. It is used as a decision and management support tool to not only quantify risk for specific conditions, but more importantly comparing different operational and management options to determine the lowest risk option and provide rationale for management decisions. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distributions used to quantify the failure rates and the probability of failures of the basic events employed in the PRA model of the ISS. The paper will show how a Bayesian approach was used with different sources of data including the actual ISS on orbit failures to enhance the confidence in results of the PRA. As time progresses and more meaningful data is gathered from on orbit failures, an increasingly accurate failure rate probability distribution for the basic events of the ISS PRA model can be obtained. The ISS PRA has been developed by mapping the ISS critical systems such as propulsion, thermal control, or power generation into event sequences diagrams and fault trees. The lowest level of indenture of the fault trees was the orbital replacement units (ORU). The ORU level was chosen consistently with the level of statistically meaningful data that could be obtained from the aerospace industry and from the experts in the field. For example, data was gathered for the solenoid valves present in the propulsion system of the ISS. However valves themselves are composed of parts and the individual failure of these parts was not accounted for in the PRA model. In other words the failure of a spring within a valve was considered a failure of the valve itself.

  16. Success rate and risk factors of failure of the induced membrane technique in children: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aurégan, Jean-Charles; Bégué, Thierry; Rigoulot, Guillaume; Glorion, Christophe; Pannier, Stéphanie

    2016-12-01

    The induced membrane technique was designed by Masquelet et al. to address segmental bone defects of critical size in adults. It has been used after bone defects of traumatic, infectious and tumoral origin with satisfactory results. Recently, it has been used in children but, after an initial enthusiasm, several cases of failure have been reported. The purpose of this study was to assess the success rate and the risk factors of failure of the induced membrane for children. We conducted a systematic review of all the studies reporting the results of the induced membrane technique to address bone defects of critical size in children. Our primary outcome was the success rate of the technique defined as a bone union before any iterative surgery. Our secondary outcomes were the complications and the risk factors of failure. We searched Medline via Pubmed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library. Twelve studies, including 69 patients, met the inclusion criteria. There were 41 boys and 28 girls. Mean age at surgery was 10 years. Mean size of resection was 12.38 cm and the mean time between the two stages was 5.86 months. Mean rate of bone union after the two stages of the induced membrane technique was 58% (40/69) but this rate increased to 87% after revision surgeries (60/69). Main complications were non-unions (19/69), lysis of the graft (6/69) and fractures of the bone graft (6/69). Only 1/69 deep infection was reported. Other non specific complications were regularly reported such limb length discrepancies, joint stiffness and protruding wires. Risk factor of failure that could be suspected comprised the resection of a malignant tumour, a bone defect located at the femur, a wide resection, a long time between the two stages, an unstable osteosynthesis and a bone graft associating autograft to other graft materials. The induced membrane technique is suitable for bone defects of critical size in children. It is a reliable technique with no need of micro vascular surgery

  17. Risk Stratification by 24-Hour Ambulatory Blood Pressure and Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in 5322 Subjects From 11 Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boggia, José; Thijs, Lutgarde; Li, Yan

    2013-01-01

    point, and stroke, ABP(24) added 0.35%, 1.17%, and 1.00% to the risk already explained by cohort, sex, age, body mass index, smoking and drinking, previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and antihypertensive drug treatment. Adding eGFR explained an additional 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0......No previous study addressed whether in the general population estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR [Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula]) adds to the prediction of cardiovascular outcome over and beyond ambulatory blood pressure. We recorded health outcomes in 5322...

  18. Literacy and Race as Risk Factors to Low Rates of Advance Directives Among Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Katherine R.; Federman, Alex D.; McCarthy, Danielle M.; Sudore, Rebecca; Curtis, Laura M.; Baker, David W.; Wilson, Elizabeth A. H.; Hasnain-Wynia, Romana; Wolf, Michael S.; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K.

    2012-01-01

    Background Advance directives are documented instructions by a patient to ensure their medical care preferences are fulfilled in the event they cannot communicate with clinicians or family members. Objectives The current study examined the relationship between literacy and other patient level factors on having an advance directive. Design Face-to-face structured interview. Setting Participants were recruited from either an academic general internal medicine clinic or one of four federally qualified health centers in Chicago. Participants 784 adults ages 55 to 74. Measurements Assessment of participant literacy, sociodemographic factors, and having an advance directive for medical care. Results Having an advanced directive was reported by 12.4% of subjects with low literacy, 26.6% of those with marginal literacy, and 49.5% of those with adequate literacy (pliteracy and race were independently associated with a lower likelihood of having an advance directive. Specifically, people with limited literacy and African Americans were less likely to have an advance directive (RR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.22–0.95; RR, 0.64; 95% CI: 0.47–0.88, respectively). Exploratory analyses exhibited that there was not a significant interaction between the effect of literacy and race. Conclusion Limited literacy and African American race were significant risk factors to not having an advance directive in this cohort of older patients. Literacy and race likely represent two separate but important causal pathways that need to be understood to improve how the health care system ascertains and protects patients’ advanced care preferences. PMID:23379361

  19. Readmission Rates, Reasons, and Risk Factors Following Anterior Cervical Fusion for Cervical Spondylosis in Patients Above 65 Years of Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puvanesarajah, Varun; Hassanzadeh, Hamid; Shimer, Adam L; Shen, Francis H; Singla, Anuj

    2017-01-15

    A retrospective database review. The aim of this study was to determine readmission reasons and rates following primary, elective anterior cervical spinal fusion surgery for cervical spondylosis and determine risk factors predicting increased risk of 30-day readmission in an exclusively elderly population. In the United States, there were almost 190,000 cervical spine procedures in 2009. Many cervical spine surgery patients are elderly, a demographic increasingly requiring surgery for degenerative cervical spine pathology. Unfortunately, this patient population is poorly studied, particularly concerning readmission rates. Medicare data from 2005 to 2012 were queried for elderly patients (65-84 years) who underwent primary one to two and ≥three-level anterior cervical spine fusion surgeries for cervical spondylosis. Forty-five thousand two hundred eighty-four patients treated with one to two-level and 12,103 patients with ≥three-level anterior cervical fusion (ACF) were identified and included in two study cohorts. Reasons for and rates of readmission were determined within 30 days, 90 days, and one-year postoperatively. Risk factors for medical, surgical, and all 30-day readmissions were also determined, selecting from various comorbidities, demographics, and surgical variables. Readmission rates of 1.0% to 1.4%, 2.7% to 3.6%, and 13.2% to 14.1% were observed within 30 days, 90 days, and one year. Within 30 days, over 30% of patients from both study cohorts were readmitted for surgical reasons. Of surgical reasons for 30-day readmission, hematoma/seroma diagnoses were the most frequent (11.4%-15.4% of all readmissions). Male gender, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary disease, obesity, and smoking history were all found to be predictive of all-cause readmissions. Unplanned 30-day readmission rates following primary, elective ACF in elderly patients is low and often due to medical reasons. Frequent surgical reasons for 30-day readmission include hematoma

  20. Heart Rate Variability: New Perspectives on Physiological Mechanisms, Assessment of Self-regulatory Capacity, and Health risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCraty, Rollin; Shaffer, Fred

    2015-01-01

    Heart rate variability, the change in the time intervals between adjacent heartbeats, is an emergent property of interdependent regulatory systems that operates on different time scales to adapt to environmental and psychological challenges. This article briefly reviews neural regulation of the heart and offers some new perspectives on mechanisms underlying the very low frequency rhythm of heart rate variability. Interpretation of heart rate variability rhythms in the context of health risk and physiological and psychological self-regulatory capacity assessment is discussed. The cardiovascular regulatory centers in the spinal cord and medulla integrate inputs from higher brain centers with afferent cardiovascular system inputs to adjust heart rate and blood pressure via sympathetic and parasympathetic efferent pathways. We also discuss the intrinsic cardiac nervous system and the heart-brain connection pathways, through which afferent information can influence activity in the subcortical, frontocortical, and motor cortex areas. In addition, the use of real-time HRV feedback to increase self-regulatory capacity is reviewed. We conclude that the heart's rhythms are characterized by both complexity and stability over longer time scales that reflect both physiological and psychological functional status of these internal self-regulatory systems.

  1. Estimation of outdoor and indoor effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from Gamma dose rates in Gonabad, Iran

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jafaria, R.; Zarghania, H.; Mohammadia, A., E-mail: rvzreza@gmail.com [Paramedical faculty, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-07-01

    Background gamma irradiation in the indoor and outdoor environments is a major concern in the world. The study area was Gonabad city. Three stations and buildings for background radiation measurement of outdoor and indoor were randomly selected and the Geiger-Muller detector (X5C plus) was used. All dose rates on display of survey meter were recorded and mean of all data in each station and buildings was computed and taken as measured dose rate of that particular station. The average dose rates of background radiation were 84.2 nSv/h for outdoor and 108.6 nSv/h for indoor, maximum and minimum dose rates were 88.9 nSv/h and 77.7 nSv/h for outdoor measurements and 125.4 nSv/h and 94.1 nSv/h for indoor measurements, respectively. Results show that the annual effective dose is 0.64 mSv, which compare to global level of the annual effective dose 0.48 mSv is high. Estimated excess lifetime cancer risk was 2.24×10{sup -3} , indicated that it is large compared to the world average value of 0.25×10{sup -3}. (author)

  2. Heart Rate Variability: New Perspectives on Physiological Mechanisms, Assessment of Self-regulatory Capacity, and Health risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Fred

    2015-01-01

    Heart rate variability, the change in the time intervals between adjacent heartbeats, is an emergent property of interdependent regulatory systems that operates on different time scales to adapt to environmental and psychological challenges. This article briefly reviews neural regulation of the heart and offers some new perspectives on mechanisms underlying the very low frequency rhythm of heart rate variability. Interpretation of heart rate variability rhythms in the context of health risk and physiological and psychological self-regulatory capacity assessment is discussed. The cardiovascular regulatory centers in the spinal cord and medulla integrate inputs from higher brain centers with afferent cardiovascular system inputs to adjust heart rate and blood pressure via sympathetic and parasympathetic efferent pathways. We also discuss the intrinsic cardiac nervous system and the heart-brain connection pathways, through which afferent information can influence activity in the subcortical, frontocortical, and motor cortex areas. In addition, the use of real-time HRV feedback to increase self-regulatory capacity is reviewed. We conclude that the heart's rhythms are characterized by both complexity and stability over longer time scales that reflect both physiological and psychological functional status of these internal self-regulatory systems. PMID:25694852

  3. Quantification of lung cancer risk after low radon exposure and low exposure rate: synthesis from epidemiological and experimental data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timarche, M

    2004-03-15

    Radon is a radioactive gas produced during the decay of uranium 238 that is present in soil. It was classified as a human lung carcinogen in 1988, based on evidence both from animal studies and from human studies of miners with high levels of radon exposure. Radon is present everywhere; therefore the quantification of the risk associated with exposure to it is a key public health issue. The project aimed to analyse the risk associated with radon inhalation at low doses and at low rates of exposure. It involved researchers from three different fields: epidemiology, animal experiments and mechanistic modelling and provided a unique opportunity to study the influence of dose rate, mainly in the range of low daily exposures over long periods, by analysing in parallel results from both animal and epidemiological studies. The project comprised 6 work packages (W.P.). Firstly, the partners involved in epidemiology and animal experiments worked on the validation and the analysis of the data. Secondly, the data from W.P.1 and W.P.4 were transferred to the partners involved in W.P.5 for the application of mechanistic models. In the final step a synthesis of the results was prepared. (N.C)

  4. Quantification of lung cancer risk after low radon exposure and low exposure rate: synthesis from epidemiological and experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timarche, M.

    2004-03-01

    Radon is a radioactive gas produced during the decay of uranium 238 that is present in soil. It was classified as a human lung carcinogen in 1988, based on evidence both from animal studies and from human studies of miners with high levels of radon exposure. Radon is present everywhere; therefore the quantification of the risk associated with exposure to it is a key public health issue. The project aimed to analyse the risk associated with radon inhalation at low doses and at low rates of exposure. It involved researchers from three different fields: epidemiology, animal experiments and mechanistic modelling and provided a unique opportunity to study the influence of dose rate, mainly in the range of low daily exposures over long periods, by analysing in parallel results from both animal and epidemiological studies. The project comprised 6 work packages (W.P.). Firstly, the partners involved in epidemiology and animal experiments worked on the validation and the analysis of the data. Secondly, the data from W.P.1 and W.P.4 were transferred to the partners involved in W.P.5 for the application of mechanistic models. In the final step a synthesis of the results was prepared. (N.C)

  5. Ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration versus core needle biopsy: comparison of post-biopsy hematoma rates and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chae, In Hye; Kim, Eun-Kyung; Moon, Hee Jung; Yoon, Jung Hyun; Park, Vivian Y; Kwak, Jin Young

    2017-07-01

    To compare post-biopsy hematoma rates between ultrasound guided-fine needle aspiration and ultrasound guided-core needle biopsy, and to investigate risk factors for post-biopsy hematoma. A total of 5304 thyroid nodules which underwent ultrasound guided biopsy were included in this retrospective study. We compared clinical and US features between patients with and without post-biopsy hematoma. Associations between these features and post-biopsy hematoma were analyzed. Post-biopsy hematoma rate was 0.8% (43/5121) for ultrasound guided-fine needle aspiration and 4.9% (9/183) for ultrasound guided-core needle biopsy (P guided-fine needle aspiration, gender, age, size, presence of vascularity, and suspicious US features were not associated with post-biopsy hematoma according to experience level. Post-biopsy hematoma occurred significantly more with ultrasound guided-core needle biopsy (9/179, 5.0%) than with ultrasound guided-fine needle aspiration (9/1138, 0.8%) (P guided-core needle biopsy was the only significant risk factor for post-biopsy hematoma (adjusted Odds Ratio, 6.458, P guided-core needle biopsy than in ultrasound guided-fine needle aspiration and ultrasound guided-core needle biopsy was the only independent factor of post-biopsy hematoma in thyroid nodules.

  6. Growth rate variation among passerine species in tropical and temperate sites: an antagonistic interaction between parental food provisioning and nest predation risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Thomas E.; Llyod, Penn; Bosque, Carlos; Barton, Daniel C.; Biancucci, Atilio L.; Cheng, Yi-Ru; Ton, Riccardo

    2011-01-01

    Causes of interspecific variation in growth rates within and among geographic regions remain poorly understood. Passerine birds represent an intriguing case because differing theories yield the possibility of an antagonistic interaction between nest predation risk and food delivery rates on evolution of growth rates. We test this possibility among 64 Passerine species studied on three continents, including tropical and north and south temperate latitudes. Growth rates increased strongly with nestling predation rates within, but not between, sites. The importance of nest predation was further emphasized by revealing hidden allometric scaling effects. Nestling predation risk also was associated with reduced total feeding rates and per-nestling feeding rates within each site. Consequently, faster growth rates were associated with decreased per-nestling food delivery rates across species, both within and among regions. These relationships suggest that Passerines can evolve growth strategies in response to predation risk whereby food resources are not the primary limit on growth rate differences among species. In contrast, reaction norms of growth rate relative to brood size suggest that food may limit growth rates within species in temperate, but not tropical, regions. Results here provide new insight into evolution of growth strategies relative to predation risk and food within and among species.

  7. Factors Modifying the Radon-Related Lung Cancer Risk at Low Exposures and Exposure Rates among German Uranium Miners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreuzer, M; Sobotzki, C; Schnelzer, M; Fenske, N

    2018-02-01

    It is still not fully understood whether and how factors such as time, age and smoking modify the relationship between lung cancer and radon at low exposures and exposure rates. Improved knowledge is necessary for the dose conversion of radon in working level month (WLM) into effective dose, as currently discussed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). An update of the German uranium miner cohort study (n = 58,974 men) with a 10-year extension of mortality follow-up (1946-2013) was used to further examine this issue. Internal Poisson regression was applied to estimate the excess relative risk (ERR) for lung cancer mortality per unit of cumulative radon exposure in WLM with exponential time-related effect modifiers. In the full cohort restricted to <100 WLM the estimated overall ERR/WLM was 0.006 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.003; 0.010] based on 1,254 lung cancer deaths and 1,620,190 person-years at risk. Both age at and time since exposure turned out to be important modifiers of the ERR/WLM and were included in the final model. Here, the ERR/WLM centered on age at exposure of 30 years, and 20 years since exposure was 0.016 (95% CI: 0.008; 0.028). This value decreased statistically significantly by approximately 40% and 60% for each 10-year increase in age at exposure and time since exposure, respectively. The joint effect of smoking and radon exposure was investigated in the sub-cohort of miners hired in 1960 or later, which includes data on smoking status. The centered ERR/WLM was slightly higher for non/light smokers compared to moderate/heavy smokers (0.022 versus 0.013). The current findings provide evidence for an increased lung cancer risk at low radon exposures or exposure rates that is modified by age and time. The observed risk is lower, but statistically compatible to those of other miner studies at low exposures or exposure rates. These findings reject an additive- and support a sub- to (supra-) multiplicative interaction

  8. Rates of, and risk factors for, septic arthritis in patients with invasive pneumococcal disease: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrie, Thomas J; Tyrrell, Gregory J; Majumdar, Sumit R; Eurich, Dean T

    2017-10-12

    There are many case reports of septic arthritis complicating invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD); however, no study has compared patients with IPD with septic arthritis to those who didn't develop septic arthritis Thus, we aimed to determine the rates of, and risk factors for, septic arthritis in patients with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Socio-demographic, clinical, and serological data were captured on all patients with IPD in Northern Alberta, Canada from 2000 to 2014. Septic arthritis was identified by attending physicians. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analyses were used to compare characteristics of those with septic arthritis and IPD to those who did not. Septic arthritis developed in 51 of 3251 (1.6%) of patients with IPD. Inability to walk independently, male sex, and underlying joint disease were risk factors for developing septic arthritis in patients with IPD. Capsular serotypes 22 and 12F were more common in patients with septic arthritis than those without. In patients with IPD, septic arthritis is uncommon. Certain risk factors such as walking with or without assistance and underlying joint disease make biological sense as damaged joints are more likely to be infected in the presence of bacteremia. Not applicable.

  9. Relation of Telemetry Use and Mortality Risk, Hospital Length of Stay, and Readmission Rates in Patients With Respiratory Illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Nancy; Burton, M Caroline; Hull, Bryan; Beliles, Gregory; Pritchard, Ingrid; Trautman, Christopher; Ferry, Laura; Doyon, Amanda; Colby, Rebecca; Chuu, Andy; Kung, Shu Ting; Khang, Tran; Durocher, Donna; Buras, Matthew; Kosiorek, Heidi; Agrwal, Neera; Sen, Ayan; Goss, Darin; Geyer, Holly

    2017-10-15

    The 2004 American Heart Association expert opinion-based guidelines restrict telemetry use primarily to patients with current or high-risk cardiac conditions. Respiratory infections have emerged as a common source of hospitalization, and telemetry is frequently applied without indication in efforts to monitor patient decompensation. In this retrospective study, we aimed to determine whether telemetry impacts mortality risk, length of stay (LOS), or readmission rates in hospitalized patients with acute respiratory infection not meeting American Heart Association criteria. A total of 765 respiratory infection patient encounters with Diagnosis-Related Groups 193, 194, 195, 177, 178 and 179 admitted in 2013 to 2015 to 2 tertiary community-based medical centers (Mayo Clinic, Arizona, and Mayo Clinic, Florida) were evaluated, and outcomes between patients who underwent or did not undergo telemetry were compared. Overall, the median LOS was longer in patients who underwent telemetry (3.0 days vs 2.0 days, p Telemetry predicted LOS for both univariate (estimate 1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.32, p = 0.003) and multivariate (estimate 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.30, p = 0.003) analyses after controlling for severity of illness but did not predict patient mortality. In conclusion, this study identified that patients with respiratory infection who underwent telemetry without clear indications may face increased LOS without reducing their readmission risk or improving the overall mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Placenta accreta: incidence and risk factors in an area with a particularly high rate of cesarean section.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morlando, Maddalena; Sarno, Laura; Napolitano, Raffaele; Capone, Angela; Tessitore, Giovanni; Maruotti, Giuseppe M; Martinelli, Pasquale

    2013-04-01

    Placenta accreta is a rare and potentially life-threatening complication of pregnancy characterized by abnormal adherence of the placenta to the uterine wall. A previously scarred uterus or an abnormal site of placentation in the lower segment is a major risk factor. The aim of this study was to investigate the change in the incidence of placenta accreta and associated risk factors along four decades, from the 1970s to 2000s, in a tertiary south Italian center. We analyzed all cases of placenta accreta in a sample triennium for each decade. The incidence increased from 0.12% during the 1970s, to 0.31% during the 2000s. During the same period, cesarean section rates increased from 17 to 64%. Prior cesarean section was the only risk factor showing a significant concomitant rise. Our results reinforce cesarean section as the most significant predisposing condition for placenta accreta. © 2013 The Authors Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica © 2013 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  11. Cross-cultural comparisons of child-reported emotional and physical abuse: rates, risk factors and psychosocial symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebre, Sandra; Sprugevica, Ieva; Novotni, Antoni; Bonevski, Dimitar; Pakalniskiene, Vilmante; Popescu, Daniela; Turchina, Tatiana; Friedrich, William; Lewis, Owen

    2004-01-01

    This study was designed to assess the incidence of child emotional and physical abuse, associated risk factors and psychosocial symptoms in a cross-cultural comparison between post-communist bloc countries. One-thousand one-hundred forty-five children ages 10-14 from Latvia (N = 297), Lithuania ( N = 300), Macedonia (N = 302), and Moldova (N = 246) participated in the study. They completed questionnaires assessing their experience of emotional or physical abuse, and provided information about family risk-factors and psychosocial symptoms, including PTSD-related symptoms. Incidence rates of maltreatment differed by country, as did levels of reported psychosocial symptoms. Incidence of emotional and physical abuse differed by region, with higher levels of abuse reported in the rural regions. In all four countries, a similar association between emotional/physical abuse and psychosocial symptoms was found, with the uniformly largest correlation between emotional abuse and anger. When examining the combined scores of emotional and physcial abuse, even higher correlation's were found, particularly in relation to anger and depression. In all four countries, parental overuse of alcohol was associated with emotional and/or physical abuse. Findings show differences by country in child-reported levels of emotional and physical abuse, but similar patterns of correlation with psychosocial symptoms and the risk factors of parental alcohol overuse and living in a rural area.

  12. Uranium in soil and gamma dose rate as proxies for the indoor radon risk: situation in Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tondeur, F.; Cinelli, G.; Dehandschutter, B.

    2017-01-01

    Radon risk maps are usually based either on indoor radon data, or on measurements of soil gas radon and soil permeability. If these data are not available or not sufficient, it was suggested that other data could be used as an approximate substitute (a proxy) to the missing information, like the concentration of 238 U or 226 Ra in soils or the terrestrial gamma dose rate (TGDR). We examine here the correlation between airborne measurements of soil U and indoor radon, and between airborne U and TGDR, and their link with affected/unaffected areas. No clear correlation is found between airborne U and affected areas, as strongly affected areas are not characterised by a higher U level. Only the moderately affected area of Condroz can be connected to a higher U level, related to a few U anomalies. TGDR shows a rather good correlation with airborne U, but its relation with radon risk is less clear. Soil uranium and TGDR may help to screen out areas with very low U and very low TGDR, which have a low indoor radon risk, but they cannot be considered as good proxies for predicting radon-affected areas in Belgium. (authors)

  13. URANIUM IN SOIL AND GAMMA DOSE RATE AS PROXIES FOR THE INDOOR RADON RISK: SITUATION IN BELGIUM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tondeur, F; Cinelli, G; Dehandschutter, B

    2017-11-01

    Radon risk maps are usually based either on indoor radon data, or on measurements of soil gas radon and soil permeability. If these data are not available or not sufficient, it was suggested that other data could be used as an approximate substitute (a proxy) to the missing information, like the concentration of 238U or 226Ra in soils or the terrestrial gamma dose rate (TGDR). We examine here the correlation between airborne measurements of soil U and indoor radon, and between airborne U and TGDR, and their link with affected/unaffected areas. No clear correlation is found between airborne U and affected areas, as strongly affected areas are not characterised by a higher U level. Only the moderately affected area of Condroz can be connected to a higher U level, related to a few U anomalies. TGDR shows a rather good correlation with airborne U, but its relation with radon risk is less clear. Soil uranium and TGDR may help to screen out areas with very low U and very low TGDR, which have a low indoor radon risk, but they cannot be considered as good proxies for predicting radon-affected areas in Belgium. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  14. Fetal heart rate accelerations and the risk of cerebral lesions and poor neurodevelopmental outcome in very low birthweight neonates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlastos, Emanuel J; Tomlinson, Tracy M; Bildirici, Ibrahim; Sreenarasimhaiah, Sreedevi; Yusuf, Kamran; Sadovsky, Yoel; Levy, Roni

    2007-02-01

    The risk of intraventricular hemorrhage and periventricular leukomalacia correlates with fetal brain immaturity. Given that the appearance of fetal heart rate (FHR) accelerations is associated with brain maturation, we tested the hypothesis that neonatal cerebral lesions and developmental delay in very low birthweight newborns are associated with absent reactivity of the FHR tracing prior to delivery. We analyzed the FHR tracing of 97 fetuses with birthweight < 1200 g who underwent head ultrasound at day 3 and Bayley Scales of Infant Development testing at age 1 year. We used multivariate analysis to adjust for confounding variables. We found that the absence of two FHR accelerations of 10 beats per minute (bpm) for 10 seconds twice in a 20-minute window 1 hour before delivery was associated with intraventricular hemorrhage and/or periventricular leukomalacia ( P < 0.01) and a significant risk for mental and psychomotor delays by Bayley testing ( P < 0.001). The absence of accelerations of 15 bpm for 15 seconds was not associated with these abnormalities. The absence of FHR accelerations before delivery suggests a greater risk for cerebral injury and developmental delay in the very premature neonate.

  15. Using data to help increase STEM retention rates for at-risk students; Student expectations and skill building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, D. E.; Jones, G.; Heaney, A.

    2013-12-01

    Retention in the STEM fields is often a focus for higher education due to a shortage of trained workforce members. In particular, much effort has been spent on first year retention rates and introductory level courses under the assumption that students are more likely to drop out of STEM majors early in their higher education degree progress. While the retention rates of women, minorities, and low income students have been a priority by both the National Science Foundation and the private sector, we are interested in at-risk first year students for this study. The University of Wyoming Synergy Program's goal is to promote academic success and retention for underprepared and at-risk students by creating a series of first semester curricula as theme-based college transition skills courses that are paired with English courses. This creates a cohort group of courses for the students with increased communication between instructors at the same time allowing greater development of student social networks. In this study we are highlighting the results of the STEM students as compared with other at-risk participants in the program. The Synergy Program enrolls approximately 144 students each year with pre- and post-course surveys that directly measure which college skills students select as important as well as student expectations of the amount of time required for STEM courses. Follow-up surveys track the same queries for students who persist to their junior and senior year. In addition, instructors complete a summative survey about skills they find important to student success and individual student's challenges and successes with a variety of skills. Our results show a large gap in skills between those identified as important by students and those identified by their instructors. Expectations for the amount of time required to complete work for STEM courses and the reported time spent on course work are not constant when progressing throughout college. This analysis

  16. Candidemia: incidence rates, type of species, and risk factors at a tertiary care academic hospital in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zengbin; Liu, Yingbin; Feng, Xiaobo; Liu, Ying; Wang, Shuyun; Zhu, Xiaodong; Chen, Qiqi; Pan, Shuming

    2014-05-01

    To investigate the incidence rates of candidemia in hospitalized patients and to identify differences in risk factors of patients with Candida albicans and non-C. albicans and with Candida guilliermondii and non-C. guilliermondii candidemia. Non-immunosuppressed, non-neutropenic inpatients with candidemia diagnosed after admission were included in this retrospective observational study at a tertiary academic hospital in China. During the study period (January 2009 to December 2011), 238 eligible patients had candidemia episodes with an incidence rate 5.4%. Of these patients, 29.8% had candidemia due to C. albicans, 27.7% due to C. parapsilosis, and 16.4% due to C. guilliermondii. Diabetes was a significant risk factor for patients with candidemia due to C. albicans (35.2%, 25/71) compared to candidemia due to non-C. albicans spp (13.2%, 22/167) (odds ratio (OR) 0.2792, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.144-0.5412; p candidemia due to non-C. guilliermondii spp, preterm birth with low birth weight (OR 0.0887, 95% CI 0.0398-0.1977; p candidemia due to C. guilliermondii. Furthermore, compared to patients with candidemia due to C. albicans, patients with candidemia due to C. guilliermondii had markedly higher rates of central venous catheterization (85.9%, 61/71 vs. C. guilliermondii: 100%, 39/39; p = 0.013) and intravenous nutrition (89.7%, 35/39 vs. C. albicans: 42.2%, 30/71; p Candidemia due to C. albicans ranks first in incidence, and candidemia due to C. guilliermondii occurs in a significant proportion of our hospitalized patients. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Potential risk of weed outbreak by increasing biochar's application rates in slow-growth legume, lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safaei Khorram, Mahdi; Fatemi, Akram; Khan, Md Asaduzzaman; Kiefer, Rudolf; Jafarnia, Sasan

    2018-04-01

    Biochar amendment is a promising tool to improve the soil quality and, consequently, higher crop yield has received more attention during last decades. The positive effects of biochar have been attracting more attention especially in the areas with low precipitation rates, such as the Middle East, due to low soil organic carbon content, higher drought intensity, and increasing demands for food production. However, biochar can lead to lower herbicide efficacy, resulting in higher consumption of herbicides. In this study, the impact of two biochars on soil properties, plant growth, and fomesafen efficacy under rain-fed condition was investigated. Biochar amendment at the rate of 5 t ha -1 improved soil quality and plant growth by 40-200% and 46-57%, respectively, compared to the control. The increase of biochar application rate from 5 t ha -1 to 15 t ha -1 showed small additional positive effects on soil and lentil as the tested crop plant, whereas the growth of weeds elevated by 200% in this case. Albeit biochar application could be an effective way to improve the soil fertility, the potential risk of weed outbreak in the long term should be evaluated carefully before the use of biochar amendment at field scale. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  18. Turkish assessment of SURF (SUrvey of Risk Factor Management) study: Control rates of cardiovascular risk factors derived from databases of 15 different levels of health centers in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokgözoğlu, Lale; Oğuz, Aytekin; Balcı, Mustafa Kemal; Temizhan, Ahmet; Güldal Altunoğlu, Esma; Bektaş, Osman; Aslan, Güler; Iyigün, Özgün; Kara, Ahmet; Tanrıverdi Pınar, Handan; Yavuz, Saffet; Tekin, Murat; Ercan, Saffet; Çelik, Selda; Sezgin Meriçliler, Özlem; Bozkurt Çakır, İrem

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the adherence to recommendations for secondary prevention and the achievement of treatment targets for the control of risk factors in patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) who were followed-up at various healthcare facilities in Turkey. According to the protocol of the international Survey of Risk Factor Management study, questionnaire forms were completed and demographic, anthropometric, and laboratory data of CHD patients who were followed-up at a total of 15 selected primary, secondary, and tertiary healthcare centers were recorded. Among a total of 724 CHD patients (69.8% male; mean age: 63.3±10.7 years) included in the study, 18.4% were current smokers, only 19.1% had normal body mass index, and 22.1% had waist circumference below the limit of abdominal obesity. Physical activity was insufficient in 53% of the patients, 47.3% had low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol value, 46% had triglyceride level above 150 mg/dL, and 67% had glycated hemoglobin value of 6.5% or above. Of all the patients, 88.1% were using antiplatelet drugs, 71.4% were using beta-blockers, 55.7% were using statins, and 41.9% were using angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers. Blood pressure was under control in 56.7% of the hypertensive patients using antihypertensive drugs, and the proportion of diabetic patients who reached glycemic control targets using antidiabetic drugs was 35.9%. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was below 70 mg/dL in 12.2% of the patients using statins. According to the data obtained, among Turkish CHD patients, the control rate of cardiovascular risk factors is low, and implementation of the recommendations regarding lifestyle modification and medication use for secondary prevention in the current guidelines are insufficient.

  19. Quantifying the Earthquake Clustering that Independent Sources with Stationary Rates (as Included in Current Risk Models) Can Produce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.; Apel, E. V.; Muir-Wood, R.

    2014-12-01

    The recent Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES) renewed public and academic awareness concerning the clustered nature of seismicity. Multiple event occurrence in short time and space intervals is reminiscent of aftershock sequences, but aftershock is a statistical definition, not a label one can give an earthquake in real-time. Aftershocks are defined collectively as what creates the Omori event rate decay after a large event or are defined as what is taken away as "dependent events" using a declustering method. It is noteworthy that depending on the declustering method used on the Canterbury earthquake sequence, the number of independent events varies a lot. This lack of unambiguous definition of aftershocks leads to the need to investigate the amount of clustering inherent in "declustered" risk models. This is the task we concentrate on in this contribution. We start from a background source model for the Canterbury region, in which 1) centroids of events of given magnitude are distributed using a latin-hypercube lattice, 2) following the range of preferential orientations determined from stress maps and focal mechanism, 3) with length determined using the local scaling relationship and 4) rates from a and b values derived from the declustered pre-2010 catalog. We then proceed to create tens of thousands of realizations of 6 to 20 year periods, and we define criteria to identify which successions of events in the region would be perceived as a sequence. Note that the spatial clustering expected is a lower end compared to a fully uniform distribution of events. Then we perform the same exercise with rates and b-values determined from the catalog including the CES. If the pre-2010 catalog was long (or rich) enough, then the computed "stationary" rates calculated from it would include the CES declustered events (by construction, regardless of the physical meaning of or relationship between those events). In regions of low seismicity rate (e.g., Canterbury before

  20. The rate of depression and its risk stratification in patients with differentiated thyroid cancers treated with radioactive iodine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eftekhari, M.; Fallahi, B.; Ansari, S.; Izadian, E.S.; Esfahani, A.F.; Beiki, D.; Saghari, M.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Depression is a common disease in general population and may be more frequent in the cases of malignant diseases. Diagnosis and treatment of depressions in such patients may improve the quality of life. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of depression in patients diagnosed as differentiated thyroid cancers (DTC) and treated with radioactive iodine ( 131 I). In a historical Cohort study, 390 DTC patients, 312 female and 78 male, 18-68 years with median age of 41 years who were treated with 131 I and 390 control cases selected from the patients' relatives and matched with DTC cases by age, sex, wedding state and socioeconomic status were entered the study. Each patient and his/her control were concurrently assessed with Beck's questionnaire for diagnosis of depression. The data was analyzed to detect the rate, severity and relative risk of depression and the effect of some variables on the severity of depression in these patients. Of 390 patients, 179(45.9%) showed some degree of depression, 20.3% mild, 14.1% moderate, 11% partially severe and 0.5% severe according to Beck score, while the proportional frequency of different grades of depression among the control group was 15.5% and overall relative risk of depression in DTC patients was 2.96. The frequency of depression in female patients, 47.8% was lesser than male, 38.5% (p=0.013) and in married female (46.2%) was greater than single (14.3%) but lesser than divorced or widow female patients (82.4%), (p<0.0001). Depression was more prevalent and more severe in cases of papillary, 47.9% than follicular carcinoma, 33.3% (p=0.014) and also was more predominant in less-educated than in high-educated patients (p<0.0001). In DTC patients with history of radio-iodine therapy, the rate of depression is almost three times of the general population, so screening and treatment of depression especially in high risk patients like married or divorced female and less-educated patients may be of great

  1. Low Nicotine Content Descriptors Reduce Perceived Health Risks and Positive Cigarette Ratings in Participants Using Very Low Nicotine Content Cigarettes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger-Apte, Rachel L; Joel, Danielle L; Strasser, Andrew A; Donny, Eric C

    2017-10-01

    Understanding how smokers perceive reduced nicotine content cigarettes will be important if the FDA and global regulatory agencies implement reduced nicotine product standards for cigarettes. Prior research has shown that some smokers incorrectly believe "light" cigarettes are less harmful than regular cigarettes. Similar misunderstandings of health risk could also apply to reduced nicotine cigarettes. To date, most studies of reduced nicotine cigarettes have blinded subjects to the nicotine content. Therefore, little is known about how smokers experience reduced nicotine content cigarettes when they are aware of the reduced content, and how use may be impacted. The present study was a within-subjects experiment with 68 adult daily smokers who smoked two identical very low nicotine content Quest 3 (0.05 mg nicotine yield) cigarettes. Subjects were told that one cigarette contained "average" nicotine content, and the other contained "very low" nicotine content. After smoking each cigarette, subjects completed subjective measures about their smoking experience. Subjects rated the "very low" nicotine cigarette as less harmful to their health overall compared to the "average" nicotine cigarette; this effect held true for specific smoking-related diseases. Additionally, they rated the "very low" nicotine cigarette as having less desirable subjective effects than the "average" nicotine cigarette and predicted having greater interest in quitting smoking in the future if only the "very low" nicotine cigarette was available. Explicit knowledge of very low nicotine content changes smokers' perceptions of very low nicotine content cigarettes, resulting in reduced predicted harm, subjective ratings and predicted future use. Before a reduced nicotine product standard for cigarettes can be implemented, it is important to understand how product information impacts how smokers think about and experience very low nicotine content cigarettes. Prior research has shown that smokers

  2. Incidence rates and risk factor analyses for owner reported vomiting and diarrhoea in Labrador Retrievers - findings from the Dogslife Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, Carys A; Bronsvoort, B Mark de C; Handel, Ian G; Querry, Damon; Rose, Erica; Summers, Kim M; Clements, Dylan N

    2017-05-01

    Dogslife collects data directly from owners of Labrador Retrievers across the UK including information regarding signs of illness irrespective of whether the signs precipitated a veterinary visit. In December 2015, the cohort comprised 6084 dogs aged up to six years and their owners had made 2687 and 2601 reports of diarrhoea and vomiting respectively. The co-occurrence of vomiting and diarrhoea with other signs was described and the frequencies and durations of the two signs were examined with reference to veterinary visitation. Age-specific illness rates were described and Cox Proportional Hazards models were used to estimate risk factors. Just 37% of diarrhoea reports were associated with a veterinary visit and the proportion was even lower for vomiting at 28%; indicating that studies of veterinary practice data miss the majority of signs of gastrointestinal upset. In terms of frequency and duration, diarrhoea typically needed to last two days before the dog would be taken to the vet but if the dog vomited at least every six hours, the owner would be more likely to take the dog to the vet after one day. The illness rates of both signs peaked when the dogs were aged between three and six months. There was also a seasonal pattern to the incidents with the lowest hazards for both in May. Diarrhoea incidents peaked in August-September each year but, while vomiting appeared to be higher in September, it peaked in February. Having another dog in the household was associated with a lower hazard for both vomiting and diarrhoea but having a cat was only associated with a reduced hazard of vomiting. In addition to the distinct seasonal patterns of reporting, there were clear differences in the geographic risks for the two signs. The hazard of diarrhoea was positively associated with human population density within Great Britain (according to home post code) whereas no significant geographical association was found with vomiting. This study is particularly relevant for dog

  3. Determination of Wall Thinning Rates and High-Risk Zones for Local Wall Thinning due to Flow-Accelerated Corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchida, Shunsuke; Naitoh, Masanori; Okada, Hidetoshi; Suzuki, Hiroaki; Ohira, Taku; Koshizuka, Seiichi; Lister, Derek H.

    2012-09-01

    Thousands of flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC)-possible zones cause long and costly inspection procedures for nuclear power plants as well as fossil power plants, even if the number of zones is minimized on the basis of temperature and flow velocity. In order to narrow down the number of inspection zones, suitable prediction or estimation procedures for FAC occurrence should be applied and the resulting computer programs tuned with as many inspection data as possible. Such coupling of the estimation and inspection procedures should lead to effective and reliable preparation against FAC occurrence and propagation. A six-step procedure based on three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes and a coupled model of electrochemistry and oxide layer growth was proposed to estimate local wall thinning due to FAC and applied to evaluate wall thinning rate, residual lifetimes of the pipes and applicability of countermeasures against FAC. As a result of a V and V (verification and validation method) evaluation based on a comparison of calculated and measured wall thinning, it was confirmed that wall thinning rate could be predicted with an accuracy within a factor of 2 and residual wall thicknesses after one year operation could be estimated with an error less than 20%. In order to mitigate one of the disadvantages of the 3D FAC code which is the large amount of computational time needed, a 1D FAC code was developed by applying 1D mass transfer coefficients and geometry factors. Not only the probability of serious wall thinning occurrence but also a hazard scale for pipe rupture could be analyzed. FAC risk was defined as the mathematical product of the possibility of wall thinning occurrence and its hazard scale. The local maximum thinning rate could be predicted with an accuracy within a factor of 2 with the 1D FAC code. High FAC risk zones along entire cooling systems and the effects of countermeasures on mitigating the risks could be evaluated within a

  4. HEART RATE AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN RISK FACTORS IN THE POPULATION OF MEN AND WOMEN OF WORKING AGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. А. Shalnov

    2017-01-01

    . The heart rate >80 beats/min was found significantly less often in people with history of myocardial infarction. A different model was found in women, it included, like in men, living in the village, elevated levels of blood pressure, triglycerides, glucose and CRP, but not education, smoking and alcohol consumption, obesity. Anxiety, low level of high-density lipoproteins and history of diabetes mellitus were also in the model in women.Сonclusion. Significant associations between increased heart rate and metabolic risk factors, inflammation and residence in the village are found.

  5. Perceptions of Community HIV/ STI Risk Among U.S Women Living in Areas with High Poverty and HIV Prevalence Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Blackstock, Oni J.; Frew, Paula; Bota, Dorothy; Vo-Green, Linda; Parker, Kim; Franks, Julie; Hodder, Sally L.; Justman, Jessica; Golin, Carol E.; Haley, Danielle F.; Kuo, Irene; Adimora, Adaora A.; Rompalo, Anne; Soto-Torres, Lydia; Wang, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Although studies have consistently demonstrated that women at high risk for HIV and non-HIV sexually transmitted infections (STIs) tend to underestimate their individual risk, little is known about how women at risk perceive their community’s HIV/STI risk. We explored perceptions of community HIV/ STI risk among U.S. women living in areas with high poverty and HIV prevalence rates as part of a qualitative substudy of the Women’s HIV SeroIncidence Study. Semi-structured focus groups were condu...

  6. Extended monitoring of coiled aneurysms completely occluded at 6-month follow-up: late recanalization rate and related risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Jin Pyeong; Cho, Young Dae; Rhim, Jong Kook; Yoo, Dong Hyun; Kang, Hyun-Seung; Kim, Jeong Eun; Cho, Won-Sang; Han, Moon Hee

    2016-10-01

    To estimate long-term durability in coiled aneurysms completely occluded at 6-month follow-up imaging, focusing on late recanalization rate and the risk factors involved. A cohort of 620 patients harbouring 698 completely occluded coiled aneurysms at 6-month follow-up was subjected to extended monitoring (mean, 24.5 ± 7.9 months). Cumulative recanalization rate and related risk factors were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator. Forty-three aneurysms (6.2 %) occluded completely at 6-months displayed recanalization (3.02 % per aneurysm-year) during continued surveillance (1425.5 aneurysm-years), with 26 (60.5 %) surfacing in another 6 months, 15 (34.9 %) within 18 months and 2 (4.6 %) within 30 months. Cumulative survival rates without recanalization were significantly lower in subjects with aneurysms >7 mm (p = 0.014), with bifurcation aneurysms (p = 0.009) and with subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) at presentation (p 7 mm (HR = 2.37, p = 0.02) and bifurcation aneurysms (HR = 2.70, p = 0.03) were significant factors in late recanalization, whereas a link with SAH at presentation was marginal (HR = 1.92, p = 0.06) and stent placement fell short of statistical significance (HR = 0.47; p = 0.12). Most (93.8 %) coiled aneurysms showing complete occlusion at 6 months post-procedure were stable in long-term monitoring. However, aneurysms >7 mm and bifurcation aneurysms were predisposed to late recanalization. • Most coiled aneurysms showing complete occlusion at 6 months were stable. • Forty-three aneurysms (6.2 %) occluded completely at 6-month follow-up displayed late recanalization. • Late recanalization rate was 3.02 % per aneurysm-year during follow-up of 1425.5 aneurysm-years. • Aneurysms over 7 mm and bifurcation aneurysms were predisposed to late recanalization.

  7. Perceptions of Community HIV/STI Risk Among U.S Women Living in Areas with High Poverty and HIV Prevalence Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackstock, Oni J; Frew, Paula; Bota, Dorothy; Vo-Green, Linda; Parker, Kim; Franks, Julie; Hodder, Sally L; Justman, Jessica; Golin, Carol E; Haley, Danielle F; Kuo, Irene; Adimora, Adaora A; Rompalo, Anne; Soto-Torres, Lydia; Wang, Jing; Mannheimer, Sharon B

    2015-08-01

    Although studies have consistently demonstrated that women at high risk for HIV and non-HIV sexually transmitted infections (STIs) tend to underestimate their individual risk, little is known about how women at risk perceive their community's HIV/STI risk. We explored perceptions of community HIV/STI risk among U.S. women living in areas with high poverty and HIV prevalence rates as part of a qualitative substudy of the Women's HIV SeroIncidence Study. Semi-structured focus groups were conducted. Data were coded and analyzed using the constant comparative method. Participants expressed the perception that their communities were at elevated HIV/STI risk, mostly due to contextual and structural factors such as lack of access to health care and education. Findings suggest that HIV prevention messages that target U.S. women at high risk for HIV may be strengthened by addressing the high perceived community HIV/STI risk driven by structural factors.

  8. The analysis of hyper-homocysteine incidence rate and multi-risk factors in 200 patients with cerebral stroke

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Xiudong; Yang Jianghui; Huo Aimei; Wang Yan; Chu Yanchuang; Dong Mei

    2009-01-01

    To investigate the hyperhomocysteine incidence rate and clinical significance in 200 patients with cerebral stroke, the serum homocysteine, fibrinogen, C-reaction protein, cholesterol, triglyceride, LDL-cholesterol and HDL-cholesterol levels in 200 patients with cerebral stroke and 100 normal healthy controls were detected. The results showed that both serum homocysteine and plasma FIB levels in patients with cerebral infarction and intracerebral hemorrhage were significantly higher than those in controls (P 0.05). The hyper-homocysteinemia is an independent risk factor for cerebral stoke, and hyperhomocysteine may lead to the increase of Fibrinogen level, which is one of the important reasons for the high blood viscosity in the cerebral infarction patients. (authors)

  9. Assessment of exposure risk from hidden fungal growth by measurements of air change rates in construction cavities and living areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Sofie M; Møller, Eva B.; Gunnarsen, Lars Bo

    2017-01-01

    The transfer of particulate and gaseous pollution from hidden fungi growing on non-visible surfaces within the building envelope to occupied rooms is limited by the separating structure. Yet, growth, even in sealed construction cavities, is known to cause annoying smells and other more adverse...... health symptoms among the building occupants. This study analyses limitations of air change rate measurements in inaccessible construction cavities as well as analyses of the air exchange between living areas and accessible cavities such as crawl spaces and attics. It was necessary to invent a field...... study technique to use the tracer gas decay method in small and inaccessible cavities. This technique allowed further investigation on the exposure risk from hidden fungal growth. Assessment of the air transfer between crawl spaces and living areas indicate that the tightness of separating structure has...

  10. Rate Your Risk Quiz

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Origin within Distance Unit Upcoming Events April KEEP Healthy event at Faith Family Academy Sat, 04/28/2018 - 10:00am Dallas, Texas KEEP Healthy event at Long Beach Convention Center Sat, 04/ ...

  11. A Multicountry Ecological Study of Cancer Incidence Rates in 2008 with Respect to Various Risk-Modifying Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B. Grant

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Observational and ecological studies are generally used to determine the presence of effect of cancer risk-modifying factors. Researchers generally agree that environmental factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet, lack of physical activity, and low serum 25-hdyroxyvitamin D levels are important cancer risk factors. This ecological study used age-adjusted incidence rates for 21 cancers for 157 countries (87 with high-quality data in 2008 with respect to dietary supply and other factors, including per capita gross domestic product, life expectancy, lung cancer incidence rate (an index for smoking, and latitude (an index for solar ultraviolet-B doses. The factors found to correlate strongly with multiple types of cancer were lung cancer (direct correlation with 12 types of cancer, energy derived from animal products (direct correlation with 12 types of cancer, inverse with two, latitude (direct correlation with six types, inverse correlation with three, and per capita gross national product (five types. Life expectancy and sweeteners directly correlated with three cancers, animal fat with two, and alcohol with one. Consumption of animal products correlated with cancer incidence with a lag time of 15–25 years. Types of cancer which correlated strongly with animal product consumption, tended to correlate weakly with latitude; this occurred for 11 cancers for the entire set of countries. Regression results were somewhat different for the 87 high-quality country data set and the 157-country set. Single-country ecological studies have inversely correlated nearly all of these cancers with solar ultraviolet-B doses. These results can provide guidance for prevention of cancer.

  12. Risk factors leading to increased rehospitalization rates among adolescents admitted to an acute care child and adolescent psychiatric hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Logan; Pullen, Lisa M; Savage, Jennifer; Cayce, Jonathan

    2017-05-01

    Suicide is the third leading cause of death in adolescents in the United States, with suicidal behavior peaking in adolescence. Suicidal and self-harming behavior is often chronic, with an estimated 15-30% of adolescents who attempt suicide having a second suicide attempt within a year. The focus of acute psychiatric hospitalization is on stabilization of these psychiatric symptoms resulting at times in premature discharge. Finding from studies based on high rehospitalization rates among adolescents admitted to an acute psychiatric hospital indicates that adolescents continue to experience crisis upon discharge from an acute psychiatric hospital, leading to the question of whether or not these adolescents are being discharged prematurely. A chart review was performed on 98 adolescent clients admitted to an acute psychiatric hospital to identify risk factors that may increase rehospitalization among adolescents admitted to an acute psychiatric hospital. Clients admitted to the hospital within a 12-month time frame were compared to clients who were not readmitted during that 12-month period. History of self-harming behavior and length of stay greater than 5 days were found to be risk factors for rehospitalization. Adolescent clients who are admitted to an acute psychiatric hospital with a history of self-harming behavior and extended length of stay need to be identified and individualized treatment plans implemented for preventing repeat hospitalizations. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Re-resection rates and risk characteristics following breast conserving surgery for breast cancer and carcinoma in situ

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kryh, C G; Pietersen, C A; Rahr, Hans

    2014-01-01

    .1]). Invasive lobular carcinoma (ilc) had an RR of re-resection of 2.5 [1.7; 3.8], compared with invasive ductal carcinoma (idc). CONCLUSION: Overall 11.2% of the BCS patients needed a re-resection. For isolated CIS (28.6%), RR of re-resection was almost three times as high compared to invasive carcinoma (10......OBJECTIVES: To examine the frequency of re-resections and describe risk characteristics: invasive carcinoma or carcinoma in situ (CIS), palpability of the lesion, and neoadjuvant chemotherapy. RESULTS: 1703 breast conserving surgeries were performed: 1575 primary breast conserving surgeries (BCS......), and 128 diagnostic excisions (DE). 176 BCS (11.2% [9.6; 12.7]) and 100 DE had inadequate margins indicating re-resection. The overall re-resection rate was 16.2% [14.5; 18.0]. 10.3% of invasive carcinoma BCS patients, and 28.6% CIS patients underwent re-resection (relative risk (RR) 2.8 [1.9; 4...

  14. Desiccation as a mitigation tool to manage biofouling risks: trials on temperate taxa to elucidate factors influencing mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Grant A; Prince, Madeleine; Cahill, Patrick L; Fletcher, Lauren M; Atalah, Javier

    2016-01-01

    The desiccation tolerance of biofouling taxa (adults and early life-stages) was determined under both controlled and 'realistic' field conditions. Adults of the ascidian Ciona spp. died within 24 h. Mortality in the adult blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis occurred within 11 d under controlled conditions, compared with 7 d when held outside. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was the most desiccation-tolerant taxon tested (up to 34 d under controlled conditions). Biofouling orientated to direct sunlight showed faster mortality rates for all the taxa tested. Mortality in Mytilus juveniles took up to 24 h, compared with 8 h for Ciona, with greater survival at the higher temperature (18.5°C) and humidity (~95% RH) treatment combination. This study demonstrated that desiccation can be an effective mitigation method for a broad range of fouling taxa, especially their early life-stages. Further work is necessary to assess risks from other high-risk species such as algae and cyst forming species.

  15. Association of ambulatory heart rate and atherosclerosis risk factors with blood pressure in young non-hypertensive adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Cynthia; Daskalakis, Constantine

    2016-01-01

    Objective The study objective was to assess the association between 24 h ambulatory heart rate (HR), atherosclerosis risk factors and blood pressure (BP) in young non-hypertensive patients. Methods We recruited 186 participants aged 18–45 years from a large urban academic Family Medicine outpatient practice, serving 40 000 individuals for this observational study. The main analyses were based on multiple linear regression, with mean 24 h BP (systolic BP (SBP) or diastolic BP (DBP)) as the outcomes, mean 24 h HR as the main predictor of interest, and controlling for age, gender, race, insulin sensitivity/resistance and endothelial function measured by strain gauge venous occlusion plethysmography. Results HR was independently associated with mean 24 h SBP and DBP (SBP and DBP: p=0.042 and 0.001, respectively). In our analyses, associations were markedly stronger for ambulatory compared with office BP measurements. Endothelial dysfunction was associated with higher SBP (p=0.013); plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 was significantly associated with both SBP and DBP (p=0.041 and 0.015, respectively), while insulin resistance was not associated with either SBP or DBP. Insulin resistance and C reactive protein were significant predictors of HR (p=0.013 and 0.007, respectively). Conclusions These findings suggest that HR may be a potential marker of elevated cardiovascular risk in young asymptomatic individuals, prior to the development of clinical hypertension or cardiovascular disease. PMID:26925242

  16. Pyrosequencing as a tool for the detection of Phytophthora species: error rate and risk of false Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vettraino, A M; Bonants, P; Tomassini, A; Bruni, N; Vannini, A

    2012-11-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of pyrosequencing for the description of Phytophthora communities in terms of taxa identification and risk of assignment for false Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs). Pyrosequencing of Internal Transcribed Spacer 1 (ITS1) amplicons was used to describe the structure of a DNA mixture comprising eight Phytophthora spp. and Pythium vexans. Pyrosequencing resulted in 16 965 reads, detecting all species in the template DNA mixture. Reducing the ITS1 sequence identity threshold resulted in a decrease in numbers of unmatched reads but a concomitant increase in the numbers of false MOTUs. The total error rate was 0·63% and comprised mainly mismatches (0·25%) Pyrosequencing of ITS1 region is an efficient and accurate technique for the detection and identification of Phytophthora spp. in environmental samples. However, the risk of allocating false MOTUs, even when demonstrated to be low, may require additional validation with alternative detection methods. Phytophthora spp. are considered among the most destructive groups of invasive plant pathogens, affecting thousands of cultivated and wild plants worldwide. Simultaneous early detection of Phytophthora complexes in environmental samples offers an unique opportunity for the interception of known and unknown species along pathways of introduction, along with the identification of these organisms in invaded environments. © 2012 The Authors Letters in Applied Microbiology © 2012 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  17. Child pedestrian injury rates: the importance of "exposure to risk" relating to socioeconomic and ethnic differences, in Auckland, New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, I; Norton, R; Taua, B

    1996-04-01

    To examine how child pedestrian exposure to risk, as measured by the mean number of streets crossed, varies according to indices of material disadvantage and ethnic group. A questionnaire on pedestrian exposure to risk was distributed to children for completion by parents and return to school. Children from 40 schools were selected using a probability cluster design. The Auckland region of New Zealand. Questionnaires were distributed to 3388 pupils of whom 2873 (85%) completed and returned the questionnaire. The mean number of streets crossed was 2.19 (95% confidence interval 1.82, 2.56) at age 6 years and 2.80 (2.42, 3.17) at age 9 years. The mean number of streets crossed for boys (2.57 (2.15, 2.98)) was similar to that for girls (2.38 (2.05, 2.72)). The mean number of streets crossed by Pacific Island children was 4.87 (4.01, 5.73), more than twice the number crossed by children of predominantly European origin (1.90 (1.65, 2.15)). Children from families without a car crossed an average of 5.34 (4.35, 6.34) streets, compared with 2.90 (2.50, 3.31) streets for children from families with one car, and 1.97 (1.65, 2.29) streets for children from families with two or more cars. There are large differences in pedistrian exposure to risk in relation to ethnic group and levels of car ownership. These differences may explain ethnic and socioeconomic differentials in child pedestrian injury rates.

  18. Depression, comorbid anxiety disorders, and heart rate variability in physically healthy, unmedicated patients: implications for cardiovascular risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew H Kemp

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: There is evidence that heart rate variability (HRV is reduced in major depressive disorder (MDD, although there is debate about whether this effect is caused by medication or the disorder per se. MDD is associated with a two to fourfold increase in the risk of cardiac mortality, and HRV is a robust predictor of cardiac mortality; determining a direct link between HRV and not only MDD, but common comorbid anxiety disorders, will point to psychiatric indicators for cardiovascular risk reduction. OBJECTIVE: To determine in physically healthy, unmedicated patients whether (1 HRV is reduced in MDD relative to controls, and (2 HRV reductions are driven by MDD alone, comorbid generalized anxiety disorder (GAD, characterized by anxious anticipation, or comorbid panic and posttraumatic stress disorders (PD/PTSD, characterized by anxious arousal. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: A case-control study in 2006 and 2007 on 73 MDD patients, including 24 without anxiety comorbidity, 24 with GAD, and 14 with PD/PTSD. Seventy-three MDD and 94 healthy age- and sex-matched control participants were recruited from the general community. Participants had no history of drug addiction, alcoholism, brain injury, loss of consciousness, stroke, neurological disorder, or serious medical conditions. There were no significant differences between the four groups in age, gender, BMI, or alcohol use. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: HRV was calculated from electrocardiography under a standardized short-term resting state condition. RESULTS: HRV was reduced in MDD relative to controls, an effect associated with a medium effect size. MDD participants with comorbid generalized anxiety disorder displayed the greatest reductions in HRV relative to controls, an effect associated with a large effect size. CONCLUSIONS: Unmedicated, physically healthy MDD patients with and without comorbid anxiety had reduced HRV. Those with comorbid GAD showed the greatest reductions. Implications for

  19. Interventions to increase influenza vaccination rates in children with high-risk conditions--a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aigbogun, N W; Hawker, J I; Stewart, A

    2015-02-04

    Influenza is a common cause of morbidity and mortality, especially among the elderly and those with certain chronic diseases. Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for individuals in at-risk groups, but rates of vaccination are particularly low in children with high-risk conditions (HRCs). To conduct a systematic review of studies that have examined interventions aimed at improving influenza vaccination in children with HRCs. Two databases - PubMed and SCOPUS - were searched (with no time or language restrictions) using a combination of keywords - Influenza AND vaccination OR immunization OR children AND asthma OR malignancy OR high-risk AND reminder. Duplicates were removed, and abstracts of relevant articles were screened using specific inclusion/exclusion criteria. Thirteen articles were selected, and five additional studies were identified following a review of the reference lists of the initial thirteen articles, bringing the total number to eighteen. Most studies were conducted in the United States. Among the 18 studies, there was one systematic review of a specific intervention in asthmatic children, seven randomized controlled trials (RCTs), six before-and-after studies, one non-randomized controlled trial, one retrospective cohort study, one quasi-experimental post-test study, and one letter to editors. Interventions reported include multi-component strategies, letter reminders, telephone recall, letters plus telephone calls, an asthma education tool and year-round scheduling for influenza vaccination, amongst others. There is good evidence that reminder letters will improve influenza vaccination uptake in children with HRCs, but the evidence that telephone recall or a combination of letter reminder and telephone recall will improve uptake is weak. It is not known if multiple reminder letters are more effective than single letters or if multi-component strategies are more effective than single or dual component strategies. There is a need for further

  20. Prostate cancer detection rate at repeat saturation biopsy: PCPT risk calculator versus PCA3 score versus case-finding protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepe, Pietro; Aragona, Francesco

    2013-02-01

    To evaluate Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator versus prostate cancer gene 3 (PCA3) score versus case-finding protocol accuracy in prostate cancer diagnosis in patients with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) below 10 ng/mL submitted to repeat saturation biopsy (SPBx). From December 2010 to December 2011, 100 patients (median 66 years) underwent a SPBx (median 30 cores); the indications for repeat biopsy were those of a case-finding protocol: PSA values between 4.1 ng/mL-10 ng/mL or 2.6 ng/mL-4 ng/mL with F/T PSA ≤ 25% and ≤ 20%, respectively. All patients had negative digital rectal examination (DRE) and median PSA was 7.9 ng/mL. The performance of PCPT risk calculator (alone, combined with PSA free/total ( F/T) or PCA3 score) and PCA3 score in comparison with the case-finding protocol results (alone or combined with PCA3 score) was retrospectively evaluated in terms of detection rate for cancer and number of avoided biopsies. Prostate cancer was found in 28 (28%) patients; in the presence and absence of prostate cancer median PCA3 score was 57 versus 35 (p 20 missed 7.2% of cancer; the case-finding protocol combined with PCA3 score > 35 would save 22% of avoidable biopsies, missing no cancer if all patients with PSA F/T ≤ 15% would undergo prostate biopsy irrespective of PCA3 values. PCA3 score improves PCPT risk calculator accuracy in prostate cancer diagnosis; moreover, PCA3 score combined with PSA F/T reduce number of unnecessary biopsies (about 20%).

  1. Infection after pacemaker implantation: infection rates and risk factors associated with infection in a population-based cohort study of 46299 consecutive patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Jens Brock; Jørgensen, Ole Dan; Møller, Mogens

    2011-01-01

    Infection is a serious complication of pacemaker (PM) systems. Although the rate of infection has been debated, the figures are largely unknown. We therefore studied the incidence of PM infection and its associated risk factors in the Danish population.......Infection is a serious complication of pacemaker (PM) systems. Although the rate of infection has been debated, the figures are largely unknown. We therefore studied the incidence of PM infection and its associated risk factors in the Danish population....

  2. Outcomes Associated With 3 Treatment Schedules of High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Monotherapy for Favorable-Risk Prostate Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jawad, Maha Saada; Dilworth, Joshua T.; Gustafson, Gary S.; Ye, Hong; Wallace, Michelle [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Martinez, Alvaro [Michigan HealthCare Professionals/21" s" t Century Oncology, Farmington Hills, Michigan (United States); Chen, Peter Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States); Krauss, Daniel J., E-mail: DKrauss@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Royal Oak, Michigan (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Purpose: We report the outcomes associated with 3 high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy regimens used as monotherapy for favorable-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Four hundred ninety-four patients with stage ≤T2b prostate cancer, Gleason score ≤7, and prostate-specific antigen levels ≤15 ng/mL underwent HDR brachytherapy as monotherapy. Of those, 319 received 38 Gy in 4 fractions, 79 received 24 Gy in 2 fractions, and 96 received 27 Gy in 2 fractions. Acute and chronic genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) toxicities were defined as side effects occurring ≤6 and >6 months, respectively, after radiation therapy (RT) and were graded according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. The time to toxicity was calculated from the date of RT completion. Variables were analyzed with χ{sup 2} test. P values <.05 were considered significant. Results: The median overall follow-up time was 4 years (range, 5.5, 3.5, and 2.5 years for 38 Gy, 24 Gy, and 27 Gy, respectively, P<.001). Acute and chronic grade ≥2 GU and GI toxicity profiles were similar among groups. Acceptable rates of grade 2 GU toxicities were seen with overall acute/chronic frequency/urgency, dysuria, retention, incontinence, and hematuria rates of 14%/20%, 6%/7%, 7%/4%, 1.5%/2%, and 1.5%/7%, respectively. Minimal grade 3 and no grade 4 or 5 toxicities were seen. Grade 1, 2, and 3 chronic urethral stricture rates were 0.3%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. All GI toxicities were similar between groups, with overall rates of acute/chronic grade 2 diarrhea, rectal pain/tenesmus, rectal bleeding, and proctitis of 1%/1%, <1%/0.5%, 0%/2%, and <1%/1%, respectively. No grade 3, 4, or 5 toxicities were seen. All comparisons were similar for hormone-naïve patients. The median time to maximal GU/GI toxicity was similar between groups, ranging from 1 to 1.6 to 0.9 to 1.2 years, respectively. There were no differences in clinical outcomes between the 3 groups at 5

  3. Current Data on Risk Factor Estimates Does Not Explain the Difference in Rates of Melanoma between Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Whites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Kamath

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available United States Hispanics have seven times lower melanoma incidence rates than non-Hispanic whites (NHW. It is unclear whether this difference can be explained solely by phenotypic risk factors, like darker skin, or whether modifiable risk factors, like sun exposure, also play a role. The purpose of this paper is to summarize what is currently known about melanoma risk factors among Hispanics and NHWs, and whether or not those differences could explain the difference in melanoma incidence. Through literature review, relative risks and prevalence of melanoma risk factors in Hispanics and NHWs were identified and used to calculate the expected rate in Hispanics and rate ratio compared to NHWs. We found that melanoma risk factors either have similar frequency in Hispanics and NHWs (e.g., many large nevi or are less frequent in Hispanics but do not explain a high proportion of disease variation (e.g., red hair. Considering current knowledge of risk factor prevalence, we found that melanoma incidence rates in the two groups should actually be similar. Sun exposure behavior among Hispanics may contribute to the explanation for the 7-fold difference in melanoma rates. Currently, limited data exist on sun exposure behavior among Hispanics, but possibilities for improving primary prevention by further studying these practices are substantial.

  4. An analysis of the effects of smoking and other cardiovascular risk factors on obliteration rates after arteriovenous malformation radiosurgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhatnagar, Ajay; Flickinger, John C.; Kondziolka, Douglas; Niranjan, Ajay; Lunsford, L. Dade

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the relationships of smoking and other cardiovascular disease risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and gender) to rates of radiosurgery-induced obliteration of arteriovenous malformations (AVM). Methods and Materials: We evaluated follow-up imaging and clinical data in 329 AVM patients who received gamma knife radiosurgery at the University of Pittsburgh between 1987 and 1994. There were 113 smokers, 29 hypertensives, 5 diabetics, 4 hypercholesterolemics, 159 male patients, and 170 female patients. All patients had regular clinical or imaging follow-up for a minimum of 3 years after radiosurgery. Results: Multivariate analysis showed that smoking had no effect on AVM obliteration (p>0.43). Hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia had no discernible effect on AVM obliteration in this study (p>0.78). However, females aged 12-49 had a statistically significant lower in-field obliteration rate than males (78% vs. 89%, p=0.0102). Conclusion: Smoking has no effect on AVM obliteration. Hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia had no discernible effect in this study. Further study is needed to establish whether estrogen has a vascular protective effect that could partially limit radiosurgical AVM obliteration, as suggested by this study

  5. International hedging under concurrent risks of input/output prices and exchange rate : The case of Korean oil refinery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, W.C.; Kim, S.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-11-01

    This study develops an international hedging model which accounts for the multiple risks of input and output prices and exchange rates. Considering a fixed production technology, we formulize simultaneous minimum variance hedge ratios, which reflects inter correlations among prices. To utilize the dynamic nature of prices, time-varying conditional procedures are specified to estimate the relevant variance and covariance matrix. The time-varying representations of the variance and covariance matrix are statistically appropriate, in general. The separate hedge ratios are similar to the simultaneous hedge ratios for alternative procedures. The ex post hedging effectiveness indicate that there are substantial reduction in the variance of returns for all the procedures. The contribution of foreign currency futures is minimal due to the low correlation between commodities and exchange rates. Based on the traditional definition of hedging effectiveness, the time-varying conditional procedure provide little gain to the hedgers over a constant procedure in terms of the mean and the variance reduction. However, the performance of conditional procedures could be improved by accounting for the potential problems: mis specification problem, inappropriate definition of hedging effectiveness, and conflicts between theoretical derivation and estimation of hedge ratios. (author). 39 refs., 6 tabs.

  6. Neuroprotection and Neurodegeneration in Alzheimer’s Disease: Role of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors, Implications for Dementia Rates, and Prevention with Aerobic Exercise in African Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas O. Obisesan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD will reach epidemic proportions in the United States and worldwide in the coming decades, and with substantially higher rates in African Americans (AAs than in Whites. Older age, family history, low levels of education, and ɛ4 allele of the apolipoprotein E (APOE gene are recognized risk factors for the neurodegeneration in AD and related disorders. In AAs, the contributions of APOE gene to AD risk continue to engender a considerable debate. In addition to the established role of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk in vascular dementia, it is now believed that CVD risk and its endophenotype may directly comediate AD phenotype. Given the pleiotropic effects of APOE on CVD and AD risks, the higher rates of CVD risks in AAs than in Whites, it is likely that CVD risks contribute to the disproportionately higher rates of AD in AAs. Though the advantageous effects of aerobic exercise on cognition is increasingly recognized, this evidence is hardly definitive, and data on AAs is lacking. In this paper, we will discuss the roles of CVD risk factors in the development of AD and related dementias, the susceptibility of these risk factors to physiologic adaptation, and fitness-related improvements in cognitive function. Its relevance to AD prevention in AAs is emphasized.

  7. 12 CFR 617.7415 - How does a qualified lender decide to restructure a loan?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... capacity and the management skills to protect the collateral from diversion, dissipation, or deterioration... capacity and the liquidation value of the collateral used to secure the loan; (2) The estimated cost of maintaining a loan classified as a high-risk asset; (3) The estimated cost of administrative and legal actions...

  8. Restless legs syndrome augmentation among Japanese patients receiving pramipexole therapy: Rate and risk factors in a retrospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masayoshi Takahashi

    Full Text Available To investigate the rate of and risk factors for restless legs syndrome (RLS augmentation in Japanese patients receiving pramipexole (PPX treatment. Records of 231 consecutive patients with idiopathic RLS who received PPX therapy for more than one month in a single sleep disorder center were analyzed retrospectively. Augmentation was diagnosed based on the Max Planck Institute criteria; associated factors were identified by logistic regression analysis. Mean age at PPX initiation was 60.6 ± 14.9 years and mean treatment duration was 48.5 ± 26.4 months. Augmentation was diagnosed in 21 patients (9.1%. Daily PPX dose and treatment duration were significantly associated with augmentation. By analyzing the receiver operating characteristic curve, a PPX dose of 0.375 mg/day was found to be the optimal cut-off value for predicting augmentation. After stratifying patients according to PPX treatment duration, at median treatment duration of 46 months, optimal cut-off values for daily doses were 0.375 and 0.500 mg/day for <46 months and ≥46 months of treatment, respectively. The RLS augmentation with PPX treatment in Japanese patients was occurred at rate of 9.1%, being quite compatible with previously reported rates in Caucasian patients. The symptom could appear within a relatively short period after starting the treatment in possibly vulnerable cases even with a smaller drug dose. Our results support the importance of keeping doses of PPX low throughout the RLS treatment course to prevent augmentation.

  9. Anterior disc displacement with reduction and symptomatic hypermobility in the human temporomandibular joint : Prevalence rates and risk factors in children and teenagers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slater, James J. R. Huddleston; Lobbezoo, Frank; Onland-Moret, N. Charlotte; Naeije, Machiel

    2007-01-01

    Aims: To assess the prevalence rates and risk factors of anterior disc displacement with reduction (ADDR) and symptomatic hypermobility in a large sample of children and teenagers. Prevalence rates were also established in samples of young adults and adults. Methods: Children from 7 Dutch primary

  10. Permanent interstitial low-dose-rate brachytherapy for patients with low risk prostate cancer. An interim analysis of 312 cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badakhshi, Harun; Graf, Reinhold; Budach, Volker; Wust, Peter [University Hospital Berlin, Department for Radiation Oncology of Charite School of Medicine, Berlin (Germany)

    2015-04-01

    The biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS) rate after treatment with permanent iodine-125 seed implantation (PSI) or combined seeds and external beam radiotherapy (COMB) for clinical stage T1-T2 localized prostate cancer is a clinically relevant endpoint. The goal of this work was to evaluate the influence of relevant patient- and treatment-related factors. The study population comprised 312 consecutive patients treated with permanent seed implantation. All patients were evaluable for analysis of overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS), 230 for bRFS, of which 192 were in the PSI group and 38 in the COMB group. The prescribed minimum peripheral dose was 145 Gy for PSI, for COMB 110 Gy implant and external beam radiotherapy of 45 Gy. The median follow-up time was 33 months (range 8-66 months). bRFS was defined as a serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level ≤ 0.2 ng/ml at last follow-up. Overall, the actuarial bRFS at 50 months was 88.4 %. The 50-month bRFS rate for PSI and COMB was 90.9 %, and 77.2 %, respectively. In the univariate analysis, age in the categories ≤ 63 and > 63 years (p < 0.00), PSA nadir (≤ 0.5 ng/ml and > 0.5 ng/ml) and PSA bounce (yes/no) were the significant predicting factors for bRFS. None of the other patient and treatment variables (treatment modality, stage, PSA, Gleason score, risk group, number of risk factors, D90 and various other dose parameters) were found to be a statistically significant predictor of 50-month bRFS. The biochemical failure rates were low in this study. As a proof of principle, our large monocenteric analysis shows that low-dose-rate brachytherapy is an effective and safe procedure for patients with early stage prostate cancer. (orig.) [German] Das biochemisch rezidivfreie Ueberleben (bRFS) nach der Brachytherapie mit permanenter Iod-125-Seed-Implantation (PSI) oder in Kombination mit externer Radiotherapie (COMB) ist beim Patienten mit fruehem Prostatakarzinom (T1/T2) ein relevanter

  11. Rates of trauma spectrum disorders and risks of posttraumatic stress disorder in a sample of orphaned and widowed genocide survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaal, Susanne; Dusingizemungu, Jean-Pierre; Jacob, Nadja; Elbert, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    During the Rwandan genocide of 1994, nearly one million people were killed within a period of 3 months. The objectives of this study were to investigate the levels of trauma exposure and the rates of mental health disorders and to describe risk factors of posttraumatic stress reactions in Rwandan widows and orphans who had been exposed to the genocide. Trained local psychologists interviewed orphans (n=206) and widows (n=194). We used the PSS-I to assess posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the Hopkins Symptom Checklist to assess depression and anxiety symptoms, and the M.I.N.I. to assess risk of suicidality. Subjects reported having been exposed to a high number of different types of traumatic events with a mean of 11 for both groups. Widows displayed more severe mental health problems than orphans: 41% of the widows (compared to 29% of the orphans) met symptom criteria for PTSD and a substantial proportion of widows suffered from clinically significant depression (48% versus 34%) and anxiety symptoms (59% versus 42%) even 13 years after the genocide. Over one-third of respondents of both groups were classified as suicidal (38% versus 39%). Regression analysis indicated that PTSD severity was predicted mainly by cumulative exposure to traumatic stressors and by poor physical health status. In contrast, the importance given to religious/spiritual beliefs and economic variables did not correlate with symptoms of PTSD. While a significant portion of widows and orphans continues to display severe posttraumatic stress reactions, widows seem to constitute a particularly vulnerable survivor group. Our results point to the chronicity of mental health problems in this population and show that PTSD may endure over time if not addressed by clinical intervention. Possible implications of poor mental health and the need for psychological intervention are discussed.

  12. Sexual victimization of youth with a physical disability: an examination of prevalence rates, and risk and protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller-Johnson, Katrin; Eisner, Manuel P; Obsuth, Ingrid

    2014-11-01

    Children with disabilities have been shown to be at greater risk of victimization than those without. Although much of the research combines disability of any type into a single disability category, recent evidence suggests that not all types of disabilities are equally associated with victimization. To date, little knowledge exists about the victimization of youth with physical disabilities. This study used data from a national school-based survey of adolescents (n = 6,749, mean age = 15.41, SD = .66) in Switzerland to investigate sexual victimization (SV) among physically disabled youth. Two subtypes of SV were differentiated: contact SV, including penetration or touching/kissing, and non-contact SV, such as exhibitionism, verbal harassment, exposure to sexual acts, or cyber SV. A total of 360 (5.1%) youth self-identified as having a physical disability. Lifetime prevalence rates for contact SV were 25.95% for girls with a physical disability (odds ratio [OR] = 1.29 compared with able-bodied girls), 18.50% for boys with physical disability (OR = 2.78 compared with able-bodied boys), and 22.35% for the total sample with physical disability (OR = 1.74 compared with able-bodied youth). For non-contact SV, the lifetime prevalence was 48.11% for girls with a physical disability (OR = 1.44 compared with able-bodied girls), 31.76% for boys with physical disability (OR = 1.95 compared with able-bodied boys), and 40.28% for the total sample with physical disability (OR = 1.67 compared with able-bodied youth). After controlling for other risk factors, physical disability was a significant predictor of contact and non-contact SV for boys, but not for girls. © The Author(s) 2014.

  13. Readmission rates after transcatheter aortic valve replacement in high- and extreme-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forcillo, Jessica; Condado, Jose F; Binongo, Jose N; Lasanajak, Yi; Caughron, Hope; Babaliaros, Vasilis; Devireddy, Chandan; Leshnower, Bradley; Guyton, Robert A; Block, Peter C; Simone, Amy; Keegan, Patricia; Khairy, Paul; Thourani, Vinod H

    2017-08-01

    In high- or extreme-risk patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement, readmissions have not been adequately studied and are the subject of increased scrutiny by healthcare systems. The objectives of this study were to determine the incidence of 30-day and 1-year cardiac and noncardiac readmissions, identify predictors of readmission, and assess the association between readmission and 1-year mortality. A retrospective review was performed on 714 patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement from September 2007 to January 2015 at Emory University. Patients' median age was 83 years, and 46.6% were female. Early all-cause readmission for the cohort was 10.5%, and late readmission was 18.8%. Anemia was related to both early all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74) and cardiovascular-related readmission (HR, 0.60). A 23-mm valve implanted was associated with early all-cause readmission (HR, 1.73). Length of hospital stay was related to late all-cause (HR, 1.14) and cardiovascular-related readmission (HR, 1.21). Postoperative permanent stroke had an impact on late cardiovascular-related readmission (HR, 3.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-11.49). Multivariable analysis identified anemia as being associated with 30-day all-cause readmission, and anemia and postoperative stroke were associated with 30-day cardiovascular-related readmission. Readmissions seemed to be related to 1-year mortality (HR, 2.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-3.12). We show some baseline comorbidities and procedural complications that are directly associated with early and late readmissions, and anemia and postoperative stroke were associated with an increase in mortality. Moreover, we found that readmission was associated with double the hazard of death within 1 year. Whether treatment of identified risk factors could decrease readmission rates and mortality warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by

  14. Rates of trauma spectrum disorders and risks of posttraumatic stress disorder in a sample of orphaned and widowed genocide survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Schaal

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available During the Rwandan genocide of 1994, nearly one million people were killed within a period of 3 months.The objectives of this study were to investigate the levels of trauma exposure and the rates of mental health disorders and to describe risk factors of posttraumatic stress reactions in Rwandan widows and orphans who had been exposed to the genocide.Trained local psychologists interviewed orphans (n=206 and widows (n=194. We used the PSS-I to assess posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD, the Hopkins Symptom Checklist to assess depression and anxiety symptoms, and the M.I.N.I. to assess risk of suicidality.Subjects reported having been exposed to a high number of different types of traumatic events with a mean of 11 for both groups. Widows displayed more severe mental health problems than orphans: 41% of the widows (compared to 29% of the orphans met symptom criteria for PTSD and a substantial proportion of widows suffered from clinically significant depression (48% versus 34% and anxiety symptoms (59% versus 42% even 13 years after the genocide. Over one-third of respondents of both groups were classified as suicidal (38% versus 39%. Regression analysis indicated that PTSD severity was predicted mainly by cumulative exposure to traumatic stressors and by poor physical health status. In contrast, the importance given to religious/spiritual beliefs and economic variables did not correlate with symptoms of PTSD.While a significant portion of widows and orphans continues to display severe posttraumatic stress reactions, widows seem to constitute a particularly vulnerable survivor group. Our results point to the chronicity of mental health problems in this population and show that PTSD may endure over time if not addressed by clinical intervention. Possible implications of poor mental health and the need for psychological intervention are discussed.

  15. The association between social networks and self-rated risk of HIV infection among secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyimo, Elizabeth J; Todd, Jim; Richey, Lisa Ann; Njau, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    This study describes the social networks of secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, and their association with self-rated risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted among 300 students aged 15-24 years in 5 secondary schools in Moshi, Tanzania. Bonding networks were defined as social groupings of students participating in activities within the school, while bridging networks were groups that included students participating in social groupings from outside of the school environs. A structured questionnaire was used to ask about participation in bonding and bridging social networks and self-rated HIV risk behavior. More participants participated in bonding networks (72%) than in bridging networks (29%). Participation in bridging networks was greater among females (25%) than males (12%, p<.005). Of 300 participants, 88 (29%) were sexually experienced, and of these 62 (70%) considered themselves to be at low risk of HIV infection. Factors associated with self-rated risk of HIV included: type of school (p<.003), family structure (p<.008), being sexually experienced (p<.004), having had sex in the past three months (p<.009), having an extra sexual partner (p<.054) and non-condom use in last sexual intercourse (p<.001), but not the presence or type of social capital. The study found no association between bonding and bridging social networks on self-rated risk of HIV among study participants. However, sexually experienced participants rated themselves at low risk of HIV infection despite practicing unsafe sex. Efforts to raise adolescents' self-awareness of risk of HIV infection through life skills education and HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome risk reduction strategies may be beneficial to students in this at-risk group.

  16. Analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Račić Željko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is the detection and analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia. The paper is based on an analysis of results of the application of the linear regression model, during the period from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2014. There are three main findings. Firstly, the higher lending activity of banks contributes to the increasing share of high-risk loans in the total withdrawn loans (delayed effect of 3 years. Secondly, the growth of loans as opposed to deposits contributes to the increased exposure of banks to credit risk. Thirdly, the factors that reduce the exposure of banks to credit risk increase profitability, growth of interest rate spread and real GDP growth. Bearing in mind the overall market conditions and dynamics of the economic recovery of the country, there is a general conclusion based on the results that in the coming period the question of non-performing loans (NPLs in the Republic of Serbia will present a challenge for both lenders and borrowers.

  17. Risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates for stroke: evidence from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (AuSCR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadilhac, Dominique A; Kilkenny, Monique F; Levi, Christopher R; Lannin, Natasha A; Thrift, Amanda G; Kim, Joosup; Grabsch, Brenda; Churilov, Leonid; Dewey, Helen M; Hill, Kelvin; Faux, Steven G; Grimley, Rohan; Castley, Helen; Hand, Peter J; Wong, Andrew; Herkes, Geoffrey K; Gill, Melissa; Crompton, Douglas; Middleton, Sandy; Donnan, Geoffrey A; Anderson, Craig S

    2017-05-01

    Hospital data used to assess regional variability in disease management and outcomes, including mortality, lack information on disease severity. We describe variance between hospitals in 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates (RAMRs) for stroke, comparing models that include or exclude stroke severity as a covariate. Cohort design linking Australian Stroke Clinical Registry data with national death registrations. Multivariable models using recommended statistical methods for calculating 30-day RAMRs for hospitals, adjusted for demographic factors, ability to walk on admission, stroke type, and stroke recurrence. Australian hospitals providing at least 200 episodes of acute stroke care, 2009-2014. Hospital RAMRs estimated by different models. Changes in hospital rank order and funnel plots were used to explore variation in hospital-specific 30-day RAMRs; that is, RAMRs more than three standard deviations from the mean. In the 28 hospitals reporting at least 200 episodes of care, there were 16 218 episodes (15 951 patients; median age, 77 years; women, 46%; ischaemic strokes, 79%). RAMRs from models not including stroke severity as a variable ranged between 8% and 20%; RAMRs from models with the best fit, which included ability to walk and stroke recurrence as variables, ranged between 9% and 21%. The rank order of hospitals changed according to the covariates included in the models, particularly for those hospitals with the highest RAMRs. Funnel plots identified significant deviation from the mean overall RAMR for two hospitals, including one with borderline excess mortality. Hospital stroke mortality rates and hospital performance ranking may vary widely according to the covariates included in the statistical analysis.

  18. Federal Reserve Swap Lines – International Lender of the Last Resort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslav Titze

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available After 2007, financial market turmoil began and shortage of dollar funding liquidity disrupted not only the US dollar funding market but also overseas. To address the shortage of dollar liquidity, the FED introduced swap lines with systematic important central banks, including emerging markets. The paper discusses the main feature of the FED’s swap lines in the context of the funding pressures on the FX swap market. The main objective of the paper is to reveal technical aspects and effectiveness of the swap lines. The paper explains connectivity between un/secured money markets and the FX swap market during the financial and debt crises. The FX swap market was hit significantly. During the liquidity crisis of 2007–2010, the main driver of the deviation from covered interest parity was a shortage of dollar liquidity jointly with counterparty risk. During the debt crisis, the main driver was counterparty risk of the euro zone banks and sovereigns. The FED swap lines were used as a liquidity backstop. The paper concludes that the swap lines were an effective tool of cooperation between central banks and significantly alleviated the pressure on the FX swap market. In addition, the swap lines were flexible, supported financial stability, no losses were recorded, the problem of adverse selection was avoided and exit was successful. Finally, the swap lines have become a permanent tool for solving temporary shortages of foreign currency liquidity in national banking systems.

  19. Reexamining the Empirical Relation between Loan Risk and Collateral : The Role of the Economic Characteristics of Collateral

    OpenAIRE

    Berger, A.N.; Frame, W.S.; Ioannidou, V.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper offers a possible explanation for the conflicting results in the literature concerning the empirical relation between collateral and loan risk. We posit that certain economic characteristics of collateral may be associated with the empirical dominance of different risk-collateral channels implied by economic theory, namely the “lender selection,” “borrower selection,” “risk-shifting,” and “loss mitigation” channels. Each of these four channels has different predictions re...

  20. Self-rated health and mortality risk in relation to gender and education: a time-dependent covariate analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Santos, Maria Teresa; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria; Otero-Puime, Angel; Cañas, Ramiro; Casado-Collado, Alfonso Jaime

    2011-12-01

    This study examines the relations between self-rated health (SRH) at baseline, SRH as a time-dependent covariate (TDC), and mortality by gender and education in a community-dwelling older population in Spain. The data used are from the longitudinal study "Aging in Leganes", launched in 1993, carried out in a community-dwelling representative sample ( n  = 1,560) of the older population of Leganes (Spain). Mortality was assessed in 2008. Proportional regression models were fitted to examine the association between mortality and baseline SRH, and SRH as a TDC among subjects aged 65-85 at baseline. The multivariate analyses were stratified by gender and education and adjusted for sociodemographic factors, smoking and physical activity, physical and mental morbidity, and ADL disability. SRH and SRH as a TDC were significant predictors of mortality in men and in people with some education, but not in women or in illiterate persons. SRH and declines in SRH were associated with increased mortality risk in older men and in those who can read and write in this Mediterranean population. Given current improvements in education and decreasing gender inequality, health professionals in Spain should pay attention to both current SRH and declines in SRH in their patients regardless of gender and literacy.

  1. Latino residential segregation and self-rated health among Latinos: Washington State Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2012–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plascak, Jesse J.; Molina, Yamile; Wu-Georges, Samantha; Idris, Ayah; Thompson, Beti

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between Latino residential segregation and self-rated health (SRH) is unclear, but might be partially affected by social capital. We investigated the association between Latino residential segregation and SRH while also examining the roles of various social capital measures. Washington State Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2012–2014) and U.S. Census data were linked by zip code and zip code tabulation area. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to estimate odds of good or better SRH by Latino residential segregation, measured by the Gini coefficient, and controlling for sociodemographic, acculturation and social capital measures of neighborhood ties, collective socialization of children, and social control. The Latino residential segregation – SRH relationship was convex, or ‘U’-shaped, such that increases in segregation among Latinos residing in lower segregation areas was associated with lower SRH while increases in segregation among Latinos residing in higher segregation areas was associated with higher SRH. The social capital measures were independently associated with SRH but had little effect on the relationship between Latino residential segregation and SRH. A convex relationship between Latino residential segregation and SRH could explain mixed findings of previous studies. Although important for SRH, social capital measures of neighborhood ties, collective socialization of children, and social control might not account for the relationship between Latino residential segregation and SRH. PMID:27173739

  2. Human chorionic gonadotrophin regression rate as a predictive factor of postmolar gestational trophoblastic neoplasm in high-risk hydatidiform mole: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Bo Wook; Cho, Hanbyoul; Kim, Hyunki; Nam, Eun Ji; Kim, Sang Wun; Kim, Sunghoon; Kim, Young Tae; Kim, Jae-Hoon

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was early prediction of postmolar gestational trophoblastic neoplasm (GTN) after evacuation of high-risk mole, by comparison of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) regression rates. Fifty patients with a high-risk mole initially and spontaneously regressing after molar evacuation were selected from January 1, 1996 to May 31, 2010 (spontaneous regression group). Fifty patients with a high-risk mole initially and progressing to postmolar GTN after molar evacuation were selected (postmolar GTN group). hCG regression rates represented as hCG/initial hCG were compared between the two groups. The sensitivity and specificity of these rates for prediction of postmolar GTN were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Multivariate analyses of associations between risk factors and postmolar GTN progression were performed. The mean regression rate of hCG between the two groups was compared. hCG regression rates represented as hCG/initial hCG (%) were 0.36% in the spontaneous regression group and 1.45% in the postmolar GTN group in the second week (p=0.003). Prediction of postmolar GTN by hCG regression rate revealed a sensitivity of 48.0% and specificity of 89.5% with a cut-off value of 0.716% and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.759 in the 2nd week (pfactor for postmolar GTN. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. HIGH HEART RATE AS A POTENTIAL RISK FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES IN WOMEN WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Novikova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To study relationship between heart rate (HR and traditional risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (TRF for CVD, subclinical structural and functional changes in the heart and vessels, as well as the activity and severity of rheumatoid inflammation in women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA. Material and methods. A total of 291 female patients less than 60 years of age with a definite diagnosis of RA were examined. The control group consisted of 125 women without rheumatic diseases. Aside from clinical symptoms, activity and severity level of RA, the presence of main TRF for CVD were assessed, 24 h Holter ECG monitoring (24-h ECG, duplex scanning of common carotid arteries, transthoracic echocardiography were performed and the serum levels of inflammatory markers were determined.  Results. RA patients compared with the control group women had higher values of minimum (52.3±0.4 vs 47.5±0.4; p<0.001 and mean (78.5±0.5 vs 75.5±0.5; p<0.001 HR according to 24-h ECG, after adjustment for main TRF for CVD (age, arterial hypertension, menopause, levels of total cholesterol, triglycerides, high density lipoprotein cholesterol. Accelerated HR in RA directly correlated with an increased joint functional disability index - HAQ, RA severity index, the level of inflammatory markers and administration of leflunomide after adjustment for age (р<0.05. Patients with HR≥86 beats per minute compared with RA patients with values of HR≤71 beats per min had lower total cholesterol (5.84±0.13 vs 5.11±0.17; p=0.001 and low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (4.06±0.13 vs 3.28±0.18; p=0.001, longer duration, higher activity (Visual Analog Pain Scale, DAS28, extra-articular manifestations of RA, concentration of proinflammatory markers and severity level of RA (severity index, HAQ, radiological stage III/IV, as well as  higher percentage of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD after adjustment for age. Conclusion. According to 24-h ECG, an

  4. Consumption habits and interest rate rigidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilfredo L. Maldonado

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we provide a micro model of loans which the lender is a monopolistic bank and the borrower is a competitive consumer with consumption habits who may default on part of his debt. In this setting, we prove that the loan demand curve is kinked and therefore it is possible to find interest rate rigidity in equilibrium as well as asymmetric response of loans to interest rate variations. Finally, we show through an example that the credit supply, as a function of the marginal cost of the bank, exhibits a discontinuity on that marginal cost. As a consequence, lowering the basic interest rate of the economy may produce a sudden increase in credit demand/supply and in the default on debts.

  5. Time-driven activity-based costing of low-dose-rate and high-dose-rate brachytherapy for low-risk prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilg, Annette M; Laviana, Aaron A; Kamrava, Mitchell; Veruttipong, Darlene; Steinberg, Michael; Park, Sang-June; Burke, Michael A; Niedzwiecki, Douglas; Kupelian, Patrick A; Saigal, Christopher

    Cost estimates through traditional hospital accounting systems are often arbitrary and ambiguous. We used time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) to determine the true cost of low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy for prostate cancer and demonstrate opportunities for cost containment at an academic referral center. We implemented TDABC for patients treated with I-125, preplanned LDR and computed tomography based HDR brachytherapy with two implants from initial consultation through 12-month followup. We constructed detailed process maps for provision of both HDR and LDR. Personnel, space, equipment, and material costs of each step were identified and used to derive capacity cost rates, defined as price per minute. Each capacity cost rate was then multiplied by the relevant process time and products were summed to determine total cost of care. The calculated cost to deliver HDR was greater than LDR by $2,668.86 ($9,538 vs. $6,869). The first and second HDR treatment day cost $3,999.67 and $3,955.67, whereas LDR was delivered on one treatment day and cost $3,887.55. The greatest overall cost driver for both LDR and HDR was personnel at 65.6% ($4,506.82) and 67.0% ($6,387.27) of the total cost. After personnel costs, disposable materials contributed the second most for LDR ($1,920.66, 28.0%) and for HDR ($2,295.94, 24.0%). With TDABC, the true costs to deliver LDR and HDR from the health system perspective were derived. Analysis by physicians and hospital administrators regarding the cost of care afforded redesign opportunities including delivering HDR as one implant. Our work underscores the need to assess clinical outcomes to understand the true difference in value between these modalities. Copyright © 2016 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Combining abdominal and cosmetic breast surgery does not increase short-term complication rates: a comparison of each individual procedure and pretreatment risk stratification tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khavanin, Nima; Jordan, Sumanas W; Vieira, Brittany L; Hume, Keith M; Mlodinow, Alexei S; Simmons, Christopher J; Murphy, Robert X; Gutowski, Karol A; Kim, John Y S

    2015-11-01

    Combined abdominal and breast surgery presents a convenient and relatively cost-effective approach for accomplishing both procedures. This study is the largest to date assessing the safety of combined procedures, and it aims to develop a simple pretreatment risk stratification method for patients who desire a combined procedure. All women undergoing abdominoplasty, panniculectomy, augmentation mammaplasty, and/or mastopexy in the TOPS database were identified. Demographics and outcomes for combined procedures were compared to individual procedures using χ(2) and Student's t-tests. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios for the effect of a combined procedure on 30-day complications. Among combined procedures, a logistic regression model determined point values for pretreatment risk factors including diabetes (1 point), age over 53 (1), obesity (2), and 3+ ASA status (3), creating a 7-point pretreatment risk stratification tool. A total of 58,756 cases met inclusion criteria. Complication rates among combined procedures (9.40%) were greater than those of aesthetic breast surgery (2.66%; P risk (0 points total) with a 9.78% complication rates. Medium-risk patients (1 to 3 points) had a 16.63% complication rate, and high-risk (4 to 7 points) 38.46%. Combining abdominal and breast procedures is safe in the majority of patients and does not increase 30-day complications rates. The risk stratification tool can continue to ensure favorable outcomes for patients who may desire a combined surgery. 4 Risk. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assari, Shervin

    2016-01-01

    Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2%) and 927 women (61.8%)) aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age), socio-economic factors (education and marital status), and health behaviors (smoking and drinking) were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent) or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor), or an ordinal variable. In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men and women and whether poor self-rated health reflects

  8. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shervin Assari

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2% and 927 women (61.8% aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age, socio-economic factors (education and marital status, and health behaviors (smoking and drinking were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor, or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men

  9. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assari, Shervin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2%) and 927 women (61.8%)) aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age), socio-economic factors (education and marital status), and health behaviors (smoking and drinking) were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent) or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor), or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men and women

  10. Does a population survey provide reliable influenza vaccine uptake rates among high-risk groups? A case-study of The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroneman, Madelon W; van Essen, Gerrit A; Tacken, Margot A J B; Paget, W John; Verheij, Robert

    2004-06-02

    All European countries have recommendations for influenza vaccination among the elderly and chronically ill. However, only a few countries are able to provide data on influenza uptake among these groups. The aim of our study is to investigate whether a population survey is an effective method of obtaining vaccination uptake rates in the different risk groups and to find out what reasons people give as to why they have accepted or refused influenza vaccination and whether this varies among the risk groups. A mail questionnaire was sent out to households in The Netherlands, the response rate was 73%. This resulted in data for 4037 individuals on influenza and influenza vaccination during the 2001-2002 influenza season. The uptake rates and size of different risk groups from the panel survey were comparable with other national representative sources (from the National Information Network of GPs (LINH) and Statistics Netherlands (CBS)). The main reason cited for undergoing vaccination was the existence of a chronic condition. The main reasons for refraining from vaccination were having enough resistance to flu and ignorance about the recommendations. In The Netherlands, the GP is the main administrator of influenza vaccines. We believe that population surveys may be useful for revealing influenza vaccination uptake rates for the groups at risk. When combined with questions about reasons for undergoing vaccination, the results may provide useful policy information and can be used to direct vaccination campaigns at under-vaccinated risk groups or to target the information campaign more effectively.

  11. Determining the Relationship between U.S. County-Level Adult Obesity Rate and Multiple Risk Factors by PLS Regression and SVM Modeling Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau-Kuang Chen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Data from the Center for Disease Control (CDC has shown that the obesity rate doubled among adults within the past two decades. This upsurge was the result of changes in human behavior and environment. Partial least squares (PLS regression and support vector machine (SVM models were conducted to determine the relationship between U.S. county-level adult obesity rate and multiple risk factors. The outcome variable was the adult obesity rate. The 23 risk factors were categorized into four domains of the social ecological model including biological/behavioral factor, socioeconomic status, food environment, and physical environment. Of the 23 risk factors related to adult obesity, the top eight significant risk factors with high normalized importance were identified including physical inactivity, natural amenity, percent of households receiving SNAP benefits, and percent of all restaurants being fast food. The study results were consistent with those in the literature. The study showed that adult obesity rate was influenced by biological/behavioral factor, socioeconomic status, food environment, and physical environment embedded in the social ecological theory. By analyzing multiple risk factors of obesity in the communities, may lead to the proposal of more comprehensive and integrated policies and intervention programs to solve the population-based problem.

  12. Alcohol-induced heart rate response dampening during aversive and rewarding stress paradigms in subjects at risk for alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croissant, Bernhard; Rist, Fred; Demmel, Ralf; Olbrich, Robert

    2006-08-01

    Individuals with a family history of alcoholism (FH+) are at risk to develop alcohol problems. In several studies, psychophysiological stress responses were more attenuated by alcohol in FH+ than in FH- subjects. However, it is not clear from these studies, if this stronger stress-response dampening effect of alcohol (SRD) in FH+ subjects is confined to aversive stimuli, or would hold for nonaversive stress conditions as well. Also, male and female FH+ subjects seem to respond differently to the alcohol challenge, but have rarely been directly compared in a SRD paradigm. Participants were 54 female and 63 male healthy adults; 31 women were daughters (DOAs) and 40 men were sons (SOAs) of alcohol-dependent fathers. The remaining 23 women (DONAs) and 23 men (SONAs) had no FH of any alcohol use disorder. The participants took part in two laboratory sessions, one with and one without alcohol. In each session, three stressor procedures were presented. Heart rate is the main dependent variable in this report. SOAs, but not SONAs showed a tendency towards SRD. Among female participants, a strong SRD occurred, but contrary to our expectation only in controls. Stress responses and SRD effects were somewhat stronger in the aversive than in the rewarding task. The extent of alcohol induced SRD was strongly influenced by BAL and the amplitude of the stress response in the no-alcohol condition (multiple regression analysis). Thus, aversive tasks might have the advantage of eliciting stronger stress responses than rewarding tasks, thereby providing better conditions for observing differences in alcohol induced SRD between FH+ and FH- subjects.

  13. Albuminuria and neck circumference are determinate factors of successful accurate estimation of glomerular filtration rate in high cardiovascular risk patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Po-Jen Hsiao

    Full Text Available Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR is used for diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD. The eGFR models based on serum creatinine or cystatin C are used more in clinical practice. Albuminuria and neck circumference are associated with CKD and may have correlations with eGFR.We explored the correlations and modelling formulates among various indicators such as serum creatinine, cystatin C, albuminuria, and neck circumference for eGFR.Cross-sectional study.We reviewed the records of patients with high cardiovascular risk from 2010 to 2011 in Taiwan. 24-hour urine creatinine clearance was used as the standard. We utilized a decision tree to select for variables and adopted a stepwise regression method to generate five models. Model 1 was based on only serum creatinine and was adjusted for age and gender. Model 2 added serum cystatin C, models 3 and 4 added albuminuria and neck circumference, respectively. Model 5 simultaneously added both albuminuria and neck circumference.Total 177 patients were recruited in this study. In model 1, the bias was 2.01 and its precision was 14.04. In model 2, the bias was reduced to 1.86 with a precision of 13.48. The bias of model 3 was 1.49 with a precision of 12.89, and the bias for model 4 was 1.74 with a precision of 12.97. In model 5, the bias could be lower to 1.40 with a precision of 12.53.In this study, the predicting ability of eGFR was improved after the addition of serum cystatin C compared to serum creatinine alone. The bias was more significantly reduced by the calculation of albuminuria. Furthermore, the model generated by combined albuminuria and neck circumference could provide the best eGFR predictions among these five eGFR models. Neck circumference can be investigated potentially in the further studies.

  14. Rates and predictors of consideration for adjuvant radiotherapy among high-risk breast cancer patients: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krotneva, Stanimira; Reidel, Kristen; Nassif, Mohammed; Trabulsi, Nora; Mayo, Nancy; Tamblyn, Robyn; Meguerditchian, Ari N

    2013-07-01

    Radiotherapy (RT) after breast conserving surgery (BCS) represents the standard for local control of breast cancer (BC). However, variations in practice persist. We aimed to characterize the rate of RT consideration (or referral) after BCS and identify predictors in Quebec, Canada, where universal health insurance is in place. A historical prospective cohort study using the provincial hospital discharge and medical services databases was conducted. All women with incident, non-metastatic BC (stages I-III) undergoing BCS (1998-2005) were identified. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for RT consideration were estimated with a generalized estimating equations regression model, adjusting for clustering of patients within physicians. Of the 27,483 women selected, 90 % were considered for RT and 84 % subsequently received it. Relative to women 50-69 years old, younger and older women were less likely to be considered: ORs of 0.82 (95 % CI 0.73-0.93) and 0.10 (0.09-0.12), respectively. Emergency room visits and hospitalizations unrelated to BC were associated with decreased odds of RT consideration: 0.85 (0.76-0.94) and 0.83 (0.71-0.97). Women with regional BC considered for chemotherapy were more likely to be considered for RT: 3.41 (2.83-4.11). RT consideration odds increased by 7 % (OR of 1.07, 95 % CI 1.03-1.10) for every ten additional BCSs performed by the surgeon in the prior year. Social isolation, comorbidities, and greater distance to a referral center lowered the odds. Demographic and clinical patient-related risk factors, health service use, gaps in other aspects of BC management, and surgeon's experience predicted RT consideration.

  15. Comparison of false positive rates for screening breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in high risk women performed on stacked versus alternating schedules

    OpenAIRE

    Othman, Edress; Wang, Jue; Sprague, Brian L; Rounds, Tiffany; Ji, YongLi; Herschorn, Sally D; Wood, Marie E

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Breast MRI added to mammography increases screening sensitivity for high-risk women but false-positive (FP) rates are higher and the optimal screening schedule for coordination with mammography is unclear. We compare rates of FP MRI when studies were performed on two different schedules. Patients and methods High-risk women at the University of Vermont who had at least 1 MRI and 1 mammogram performed within one year between 2004?2012 were eligible for inclusion in this study. Screenin...

  16. Correlations between self-rating and observer-rating of psychopathology in at-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis patients: influence of disease stage and gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitz, Andrea; Studerus, Erich; Koranyi, Susan; Rapp, Charlotte; Ramyead, Avinash; Ittig, Sarah; Heitz, Ulrike; Uttinger, Martina; Riecher-Rössler, Anita

    2017-12-01

    Research findings on the correlations between self-rating and observer-rating of schizophrenic psychopathology are inconsistent and have rarely considered first-episode psychosis (FEP) and at-risk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis patients. This study investigates these correlations in ARMS and FEP patients and how they are moderated by disease stage and gender. In the Basel Früherkennung von Psychosen (FePsy) study, positive and negative psychotic and affective symptoms were rated in 126 ARMS and 94 FEP patients using two observer- and three self-rating scales. The agreement between self-rating and observer-rating and the moderating influence of disease stage and gender was quantified using Pearson correlation and multiple regression models. Correlations between self- and observer-rated subscales covering the same symptom dimension were low and mostly non-significant except for one correlation of positive and one of negative symptoms. There was no moderating influence of disease stage and gender on the correlations between self-rating and observer-rating except for one higher association in positive symptoms in FEP compared to ARMS and in women compared to men. However, these significant interaction effects did not withstand correction for multiple testing. This study suggests that the agreement between self-rating and observer-rating in FEP and ARMS patients is rather low, similar across symptom dimensions, and only partially dependent on disease stage and gender. However, low correlations between self-rating and observer-rating do not necessarily indicate that these patients have difficulties reporting their symptoms. They could also have occurred because the scales did not exactly cover the same symptom dimensions. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  17. Baseline CD4+ T cell counts correlates with HIV-1 synonymous rate in HLA-B*5701 subjects with different risk of disease progression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa M Norström

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available HLA-B*5701 is the host factor most strongly associated with slow HIV-1 disease progression, although risk of progression may vary among patients carrying this allele. The interplay between HIV-1 evolutionary rate variation and risk of progression to AIDS in HLA-B*5701 subjects was studied using longitudinal viral sequences from high-risk progressors (HRPs and low-risk progressors (LRPs. Posterior distributions of HIV-1 genealogies assuming a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock were used to estimate the absolute rates of nonsynonymous and synonymous substitutions for different set of branches. Rates of viral evolution, as well as in vitro viral replication capacity assessed using a novel phenotypic assay, were correlated with various clinical parameters. HIV-1 synonymous substitution rates were significantly lower in LRPs than HRPs, especially for sets of internal branches. The viral population infecting LRPs was also characterized by a slower increase in synonymous divergence over time. This pattern did not correlate to differences in viral fitness, as measured by in vitro replication capacity, nor could be explained by differences among subjects in T cell activation or selection pressure. Interestingly, a significant inverse correlation was found between baseline CD4+ T cell counts and mean HIV-1 synonymous rate (which is proportional to the viral replication rate along branches representing viral lineages successfully propagating through time up to the last sampled time point. The observed lower replication rate in HLA-B*5701 subjects with higher baseline CD4+ T cell counts provides a potential model to explain differences in risk of disease progression among individuals carrying this allele.

  18. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) event rates in HIV-positive persons at high predicted CVD and CKD risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyd, Mark A; Mocroft, Amanda; Ryom, Lene

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study has developed predictive risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD, defined as confirmed estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2) events in HIV-positive...... people. We hypothesized that participants in D:A:D at high (>5%) predicted risk for both CVD and CKD would be at even greater risk for CVD and CKD events. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We included all participants with complete risk factor (covariate) data, baseline eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, and a confirmed (>3...... months apart) eGFR groups (≤1%, >1%-5%, >5%) and fitted Poisson models to assess whether CVD and CKD risk group effects were multiplicative. A total of 27...

  19. [Prediction value of deceleration capacity of rate and GRACE risk score on major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute myocardial infarction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, L; Chen, Y D; Shi, Y J; Xue, H; Wang, J L

    2016-07-24

    To investigate the prediction value of deceleration capacity of rate (DC) and GRACE risk score for cardiovascular events in AMI patients. Consecutive AMI patients with sinus rhythm hospitalized in our department during August 2012 to August 2013 were included in this prospective study. 24-hour ECG Holter monitoring was performed within 1 week, and the DC value was analyzed, GRACE risk score was acquired with the application of GRACE risk score calculator. Patients were followed up for more than 1 year and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were obtained. Analysised the Kaplan Meier survival according to DC and GRACE score risk stratification respectively. A total of 157 patients were enrolled in the study (average age: (58.9±12.7)years old). The average follow-up was (20.54±2.85) months. Mortality during follow-up was significantly higher in patients with DC>2.5 compared to patients with DC≤2.5 (Prisk stratification was 0.898 (95%CI 0.840-0.940, Prisk stratification was 0.786 (95%CI 0.714-0.847, Prisk stratification was 0.708 (95%CI 0.652-0.769, Prisk patients than those with intermediate and low risk patients according to DC risk stratification in intermediate and low risk patients by GRACE risk stratification (Prisk stratification is superior to GRACE risk score on outcome assessment in this AMI patient cohort.

  20. Association between obesity and heart rate variability indices: an intuition toward cardiac autonomic alteration – a risk of CVD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadav RL

    2017-02-01

    WHR with LF in normalized unit (r=0.478, p<0.01 and LF/HF ratio (r=0.479, p<0.01, whereas it had significant negative correlation with high frequency power ms2 (r=−0.374, p<0.05 and HF in normalized unit (r=−0.478, p<0.01. There was a nonsignificant correlation of BMI with HRV variables in obese individuals.Conclusion: Increased WHR, by far an indicator of visceral adiposity, was strongly associated with reduced cardiac parasympathetic and increased sympathetic activity in obese individuals defined by BMI. However, BMI itself has a weak relationship with HRV cardiac autonomic markers. Thus, even with a slight increase in WHR in an individual, there could be a greater risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality brought about by cardiac autonomic alterations. Keywords: obesity, heart rate variability, HRV, body mass index, BMI, waist–hip ratio, WHR, cardiac autonomic regulation

  1. Rates of obstetric intervention during birth and selected maternal and perinatal outcomes for low risk women born in Australia compared to those born overseas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlen, Hannah G; Schmied, Virginia; Dennis, Cindy-Lee; Thornton, Charlene

    2013-05-01

    There are mixed reports in the literature about obstetric intervention and maternal and neonatal outcomes for migrant women born in resource rich countries. The aim of this study was to compare the risk profile, rates of obstetric intervention and selected maternal and perinatal outcomes for low risk women born in Australia compared to those born overseas. A population-based descriptive study was undertaken in NSW of all singleton births recorded in the NSW Midwives Data Collection between 2000-2008 (n=691,738). Risk profile, obstetric intervention rates and selected maternal and perinatal outcomes were examined. Women born in Australia were slightly younger (30 vs 31 years), less likely to be primiparous (41% vs 43%), three times more likely to smoke (18% vs 6%) and more likely to give birth in a private hospital (26% vs 18%) compared to women not born in Australia. Among the seven most common migrant groups to Australia, women born in Lebanon were the youngest, least likely to be primiparous and least likely to give birth in a private hospital. Hypertension was lowest amongst Vietnamese women (3%) and gestational diabetes highest amongst women born in China (14%). The highest caesarean section (31%), instrumental birth rates (16%) and episiotomy rates (32%) were seen in Indian women, along with the highest rates of babies obstetric intervention rates and maternal and neonatal outcomes between Australian-born and women born overseas and these differences are seen overall and in low risk populations. The finding that Indian women (the leading migrant group to Australia) have the lowest normal birth rate and high rates of low birth weight babies is concerning, and attention needs to be focused on why there are disparities in outcomes and on effective models of care that might improve outcomes for this population.

  2. Using non-performing loan ratios as default rates in the estimation of credit losses and macroeconomic credit risk stress testing: A case from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guray Kucukkocaoglu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, inspired by the Credit Portfolio View approach, we intend to develop an econometric credit risk model to estimate credit loss distributions of Turkish Banking System under baseline and stress macro scenarios, by substituting default rates with non-performing loan (NPL ratios. Since customer number based historical default rates are not available for the whole Turkish banking system’s credit portfolio, we used NPL ratios as dependent variable instead of default rates, a common practice for many countries where historical default rates are not available. Although, there are many problems in using NPL ratios as default rates such as underestimating portfolio losses as a result of totally non-homogeneous total credit portfolios and transferring non-performing loans to asset management companies from banks’ balance sheets, our aim is to underline and limit some ignored problems using accounting based NPL ratios as default rates in macroeconomic credit risk modeling. Developed models confirm the strong statistical relationship between systematic component of credit risk and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Stress test results also are compatible with the past experiences

  3. Traditional risk factors as determinants of heart rate recovery in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silaban, Sanny; Afif Siregar, A.; Hasan, H.; Aryfa Andra, C.

    2018-03-01

    The impact of Traditional risk factors on heart rate recovery (HRR) has not been studied in patients Diabetes Mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease (CAD). For this reason, we sought to determine the association between HRR as cardiac autonomic dysfunction marker and traditonal risk factors. The study was conducted with a cross-sectional study involving 89 patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus without known having coronary artery disease. The data was taken through anamnese and laboratory tests, and subjects who met the criteria were tested for a treadmill exercise to assess heart rate recovery in the first minute. In bivariate analysis Dyslipidemia, Hypertension, smoker, age, duration of DM≥ 5 years, HbA1C ≥7.5, Peak Heart rate, functional capacity and ST depression ischemic have an association with heart rate recovery. In multivariate analysis patients with hyper triglyceride, smoker, overweight, duration of diabetes ≥ five years and HbA1C ≥ 7,5 have lower heart rate recovery significantly. Traditional risk factors are determinant factors for heart rate recovery in patients with Diabetes Mellitus type 2 without known coronary artery disease.

  4. 12 CFR Appendix C to Part 567 - Risk-Based Capital Requirements-Internal-Ratings-Based and Advanced Measurement Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... association's underlying business risk factors and internal control environment. Carrying value means, with... zero or the market value of a transaction or portfolio of transactions within the netting set that... credit risk exposures. Expected operational loss (EOL) means the expected value of the distribution of...

  5. [Association between the social status of city districts and health risks: multilevel analyses concerning the regional distribution of overweight, hypertension and self-rated health in Augsburg, Germany].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottmann, M; Maier, W; von Klot, S; Döring, A; Mielck, A

    2013-03-01

    In empirical studies it has repeatedly been shown that the socioeconomic status (SES) of a region could infl uence the health status of its inhabitants, even if measures of individual SES are controlled for. This research has just started in Germany, but most studies focus on large geographical areas such as rural districts. Taking the example of districts in the city of Augsburg, the analyses focus on the question if these associations can also be found in a small-scale regional comparison. We included 1 888 participants of the KORA S4 Survey aged 25-74 years. The city districts were grouped according to the unemployment rate (low, medium, high). The dependent variables were self-rated health and 3 risk factors (obesity, high waist-hip ratio, hypertension). Additional individual variables included are age, sex, educational level and unemployment. The analyses were based on multilevel logistic regressions. After adjustment for individual level variables (age, sex, education, unemployment), the analyses show a signifi cantly increased risk of 'high waist-hip ratio' in the regions with the highest unemployment rate (OR 1.53; 95 % conf. interval 1.03-2.26). A similar association was found for obesity. No signifi cant association was observed between unemployment rate on the one hand and hypertension and self-rated health on the other. Some health risks seem to be especially high in city districts characterised by a high unemployment rate. It can be concluded that interventions aimed at reducing these risks should focus on districts with high unemployment rates. Further studies are needed for an understanding of the causes behind the social and regional inequalities shown here. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  6. Differences between juvenile offenders with and without AD(H)D in recidivism rates and risk and protective factors for recidivism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, C.E.; Asscher, J.J.; Stams, G.J.J.M.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: This study examined differences between juvenile offenders with AD(H)D (n = 1,348), with both AD(H)D and conduct problems (n = 933), and without AD(H)D or conduct problems (n = 2,180) in recidivism rates, prevalence of risk and protective factors, and strength of associations between

  7. Addition of 24 hour heart rate variability parameters to the cardiovascular health study stroke risk score and prediction of incident stroke : The cardiovascular health study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodapati, R.K.; Kizer, J.R.; Kop, W.J.; Stein, P.K.

    2017-01-01

    Background Heart rate variability (HRV) characterizes cardiac autonomic functioning. The association of HRV with stroke is uncertain. We examined whether 24‐hour HRV added predictive value to the Cardiovascular Health Study clinical stroke risk score (CHS‐SCORE), previously developed at the baseline

  8. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) event rates in HIV-positive persons at high predicted CVD and CKD risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyd, Mark A; Mocroft, Amanda; Ryom, Lene

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study has developed predictive risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD, defined as confirmed estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2) events in HIV...

  9. A General Econometric Model of the Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of Scholarly Journals: The Role of Exchange Rate Risk and Other Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

    1994-01-01

    Provides regression-based empirical evidence of the effects of variations in exchange rate risk on 1985 library prices of the top-ranked 99 journals in economics. The relationship between individual journal prices and library prices is shown, and other factors associated with increases and decreases in library journal prices are given. (Contains…

  10. Exposure to injury in major college football. A preliminary report of data collection to determine injury exposure rates and activity risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, B R; Griffith, E H

    1979-01-01

    Five football teams from major colleges in the nation were surveyed during practices and games in the 1976 season. Data were collected on three packages of information designed as a computer program for tabulation, analysis, and storage of data. Investigators, with a thorough knowledge of football and trained in the use of the program, obtained the data from a given team during every drill, practice, and game of the season. Injury exposure rate was calculated as a ratio of injuries to minutes of exposure in 14 categories (12 specific drills, practice games, and other activities). Agility drills produced the fewest number of injuries for the amount of exposure time (exposure rate, 47,138; risk ractor, 1) and, therefore, it served as a base from which risk factors for all other categories would be calculated. No injuries were recorded in calisthenics. Practice games had the lowest injury exposure rate (1,009) and the highest risk factor (47). Analysis of data is incomplete at this time. The ultimate intent of the study is to help identify and eliminate harmful factors, establish norms, and provide a service to other schools that may desire exposure rate/risk factor data analyzed at a reasonable cost.

  11. 'Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator' mobile applications (Apps): a systematic review and scoring using the validated user version of the Mobile Application Rating Scale (uMARS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Ahmed; Hellig, Julian C; Perera, Marlon; Bolton, Damien; Lawrentschuk, Nathan

    2018-04-01

    The use of mobile phone applications (Apps) has modernised the conventional practice of medicine. The diagnostic ability of the current Apps in prostate specific antigen monitoring, and its diagnostic ability within prostate cancer (PCa) risk calculators have not yet been appraised. We aimed to review, rate and assess the everyday functionality, and utility of all the currently available PCa risk calculator Apps. A systematic search on iTunes, Google Play Store, Blackberry World and Windows Apps Store, was performed on 23/11/2017, using the search term 'prostate cancer risk calculator'. After applying the exclusion criteria, each App was individually assessed and rated using pre-set criteria and grading was performed using the validated uMARS scale. In total, 83 Apps were retrieved. After applying our exclusion criteria, only 9 Apps were relevant, with 2 duplicated, and the remaining 7 were suitable for critical review. Data sizes ranged from 414 kb to 10.1 Mb. The cost of the Apps ranged from South African rand (ZAR) 0.00 to ZAR 29.99. The overall mean category uMARS scores ranged from 2.8/5 to 4.5/5. Apps such as Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator, Coral-Prostate Cancer Nomogram Calculator and CPC Risk Calculator, performed the best. The current PCa risk calculator mobile Apps available may be beneficial in counselling the concerned at risk patient. These Apps have potential to assist both the patient and the urologist alike. The PCa risk calculator App 'predictability' may be further enhanced by the incorporation of newly validated risk factors and predictors for PCa.

  12. Risk-adjusted operative delivery rates and maternal-neonatal outcomes as measures of quality assessment in obstetric care: a multicenter prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maso, Gianpaolo; Monasta, Lorenzo; Piccoli, Monica; Ronfani, Luca; Montico, Marcella; De Seta, Francesco; Parolin, Sara; Businelli, Caterina; Travan, Laura; Alberico, Salvatore

    2015-02-05

    Although the evaluation of caesarean delivery rates has been suggested as one of the most important indicators of quality in obstetrics, it has been criticized because of its controversial ability to capture maternal and neonatal outcomes. In an "ideal" process of labor and delivery auditing, both caesarean (CD) and assisted vaginal delivery (AVD) rates should be considered because both of them may be associated with an increased risk of complications. The aim of our study was to evaluate maternal and neonatal outcomes according to the outlier status for case-mix adjusted CD and AVD rates in the same obstetric population. Standardized data on 15,189 deliveries from 11 centers were prospectively collected. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate the risk-adjusted probability of a woman in each center having an AVD or a CD. Centers were classified as "above", "below", or "within" the expected rates by considering the observed-to-expected rates and the 95% confidence interval around the ratio. Adjusted maternal and neonatal outcomes were compared among the three groupings. Centers classified as "above" or "below" the expected CD rates had, in both cases, higher adjusted incidence of composite maternal (2.97%, 4.69%, 3.90% for "within", "above" and "below", respectively; p = 0.000) and neonatal complications (3.85%, 9.66%, 6.29% for "within", "above" and "below", respectively; p = 0.000) than centers "within" CD expected rates. Centers with AVD rates above and below the expected showed poorer and better composite maternal (3.96%, 4.61%, 2.97% for "within", "above" and "below", respectively; p = 0.000) and neonatal (6.52%, 9.77%, 3.52% for "within", "above" and "below", respectively; p = 0.000) outcomes respectively than centers with "within" AVD rates. Both risk-adjusted CD and AVD delivery rates should be considered to assess the level of obstetric care. In this context, both higher and lower-than-expected rates of CD and "above" AVD rates

  13. What is the empirical evidence that hospitals with higher-risk adjusted mortality rates provide poorer quality care? A systematic review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Mohammed A

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing interest and publication of risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates, the relationship with underlying quality of care remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain the extent to which variations in risk-adjusted mortality rates were associated with differences in quality of care. Methods We identified studies in which risk-adjusted mortality and quality of care had been reported in more than one hospital. We adopted an iterative search strategy using three databases – Medline, HealthSTAR and CINAHL from 1966, 1975 and 1982 respectively. We identified potentially relevant studies on the basis of the title or abstract. We obtained these papers and included those which met our inclusion criteria. Results From an initial yield of 6,456 papers, 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. Several of these studies considered more than one process-versus-risk-adjusted mortality relationship. In total we found 51 such relationships in a widen range of clinical conditions using a variety of methods. A positive correlation between better quality of care and risk-adjusted mortality was found in under half the relationships (26/51 51% but the remainder showed no correlation (16/51 31% or a paradoxical correlation (9/51 18%. Conclusion The general notion that hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality have poorer quality of care is neither consistent nor reliable.

  14. The At Issue Maturity of Corporate Bonds: The Influence of Credit Rating, Security Level, Duration and Macreoconomic Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Geetajali Bali; Frank Skinner

    2003-01-01

    We examine the determinants of the at issue time to maturity of corporate bonds. We find evidence that corporations partly determine the at issue maturity of bonds by responding to economic conditions. They also appear to immunize by matching the maturity of assets with the at issue maturity of bonds regardless of credit quality. Finally, we find evidence that the security level (our proxy for the recovery rate) is inversely related to the at issue time to maturity. This suggests that lenders...

  15. Döviz Kuru Riski Yönetimi: Türkiye Tütün Endüstrisi Örneği (Exchange Rate Risk Management: The Case Of Turkish Tobacco Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat DOĞANAY

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate movements, along with globalization, have become more important not only for financial institutions but also for real sector companies. Also exchange rate risk is important for non-financial companies regards to both assets and liabilities. Management of this exchange rate risk exposure has an impact on competitiveness of these companies. This paper reviews the impact level of exchange rate movements, determination of the structure of exchange rate risk position on the basis of currency and also determination of the approaches to exchange rate risk management in the tobacco industry which has very high concentration level. It’s found that the firms want to hedge against the exchange rate risk particularly in the export transactions. A significant number of firms don’t use exchange rate risk management systematically. The firms prefer operational hedging much more than financial hedging. The primarily reasons of not using financial tools in the exchange rate risk management are the presence of import transactions and the expectation of exchange rate increase. Finally, it’s concluded that the firms use foreign currency loans as a tool for exchange rate risk management in order to balance their exchange rate risk position.

  16. Reexamining the empirical relation between loan risk and collateral:the roles of collateral liquidity and types

    OpenAIRE

    Berger, Allen N.; Frame, W. Scott; Ioannidou, Vasso

    2016-01-01

    This paper offers a possible explanation for the conflicting results in the literature concerning the empirical relation between collateral and loan risk. We posit that differences in collateral characteristics, such as liquidity, may be associated with the empirical dominance of different risk-collateral relations implied by economic theory. Using credit registry data and a novel identification strategy to control for borrower and lender selection effects allows us to differentiate between t...

  17. Risk of inflammatory bowel disease according to self-rated health, pregnancy course, and pregnancy complications: a study within the Danish National Birth Cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria C Harpsøe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Poor self-rated health (SRH has been connected to immunological changes, and pregnancy complications have been suggested in the etiology of autoimmune diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD. We evaluated the impact of self-rated pre-pregnancy health and pregnancy course, hyperemesis, gestational hypertension, and preeclampsia on risk of IBD. METHODS: Information was collected by questionnaires from The Danish National Birth Cohort (enrolment 1996-2002 at 16(th and 30(th week of pregnancy and 6 months postpartum. A total of 55,699 women were followed from childbirth until development of IBD (using validated National Hospital Discharge Register diagnoses, emigration, death, or end of follow-up, 31(st of October, 2011. Hazard ratios (HR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age and evaluating pre-pregnancy BMI, parity, alcohol and tobacco consumption, and socio-occupational status as potential confounders. RESULTS: Risk of IBD increased with decreasing level of self-rated pre-pregnancy health (p = 0.002 and was elevated in women with poor self-rated pregnancy course (HR, 1.61, 95% CI 1.22-2.12. Associations persisted for more than 5 years postpartum. Hyperemesis and preeclampsia were not significantly associated with risk of IBD. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first prospective observational study to suggest that poor self-rated health--in general and in relation to pregnancy--is associated with increased risk of IBD even in the long term though results needs further confirmation. Symptoms of specific pregnancy complications were, on the other hand, not significantly associated with risk of IBD.

  18. Increased risk of long-term sickness absence, lower rate of return to work, and higher risk of unemployment and disability pensioning for thyroid patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nexo, M A; Watt, T; Pedersen, J

    2014-01-01

    regression analyses estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the first year after diagnosis and subsequent years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Transitions between work, long-term sickness absence, unemployment, and disability pension were measured. RESULTS: Patients differed significantly from the general...... population with regard to sickness absence, disability pension, return from sickness absence, and unemployment. In the first year after diagnosis, higher risks of sickness absence was seen for GO (HR 6.94) and other hyperthyroid patients (HR 2.08), who also had lower probability of returning from sickness...... sickness absence (HR 0.51), and unemployment (HR 0.52) and a higher risk of disability pension (HR 4.40). Hyperthyroid patients also had difficulties returning from sickness absence (HR 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: Thyroid patients' risk of work disability is most pronounced in the first year after diagnosis...

  19. A history of breast cancer and older age allow risk stratification of mammographic BI-RADS 3 ratings in the diagnostic setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benndorf, Matthias; Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to investigate whether risk stratification of mammographic Breast Imaging: Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) 3 can be accomplished in the diagnostic setting. We analyzed 4941 BI-RADS-3-rated patients (23 malignant outcomes) and built logistic-regression models with age, personal and family history of breast cancer, fibroglandular density, and additional mammographic findings as predictive variables. A personal history of breast cancer (odds ratio: 5.53) and older age (odds ratio: 12.44/10.93 for age 50-64/>64) are independent risk factors. Patients with both risk factors have a risk >2%. Biopsy may be warranted in older patients with a history of breast cancer who would be otherwise assigned BI-RADS 3. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Child pedestrian injury rates: the importance of "exposure to risk" relating to socioeconomic and ethnic differences, in Auckland, New Zealand.

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, I; Norton, R; Taua, B

    1996-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE: To examine how child pedestrian exposure to risk, as measured by the mean number of streets crossed, varies according to indices of material disadvantage and ethnic group. DESIGN: A questionnaire on pedestrian exposure to risk was distributed to children for completion by parents and return to school. Children from 40 schools were selected using a probability cluster design. SETTING: The Auckland region of New Zealand. SUBJECTS: Questionnaires were distributed to 3388 pupils ...