Use of the Legal-Institutional Analysis Model to assess hydropower licensing negotiations
Burkardt, N.; Lamb, B.L.; Lamb, B.L.; Garcia de Jalon, D.; Sabaton, C.; Souchon, Y.; Tamai, N.; Robinette, H.R.; Waddle, T.J.; Brinson, A.
2003-01-01
In the United States, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is responsible for issuing or renewing licenses for hydropower projects owned and operated by power companies. During the licensing process, these companies are required to consult with agencies and other parties that are affected by project operating regimes. Typical participants include state and federal fish and wildlife agencies, environmental interest groups, and the FERC. One of the most difficult tasks facing participants is to reach agreement about what kinds of environmental conditions should be placed on license. Researchers at the United States Geological Survey developed a model to analyze the institutional context of natural resource disputes. The Legal-Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) is a computerized model that allows an analyst to determine the likely behavior of each organization in a conflict. The model also analyzes the types and levels of negotiating power held by each organization. Researchers at the USGS have used the model in several cases involving hydropower license applications. To use the model, they facilitate workshops for stakeholder groups in order to develop a shared understanding of the likely obstacles and opportunities for successful resolution of the issues. This allows a systematic workshop analyses to develop strategies for successful negotiations, because they are able to better understand the negotiation problem and work more effectively with both their allies and their competitors.
Legal Institutions and Economic Development
Beck, T.H.L.
2010-01-01
Legal institutions are critical for the development of market-based economies. This paper defines legal institutions and discusses different indicators to measure their quality and efficiency. It surveys a large historical and empirical literature showing the importance of legal institutions in
Legal institutions, strategic default, and stock returns
Favara, G.; Schroth, E.; Valta, P.
2008-01-01
This paper studies the impact of legal institutions on stock returns. More specifically, we examine how differences in debt enforcement and creditor protection around the world affect stock returns of individual firms. We hypothesize that if legal institutions prevent shareholders from engaging in
Growth, financial development, societal norms and legal institutions
Garretsen, Harry; Lensink, Robert; Sterken, Elmer
2002-01-01
This paper analyses whether societal norms help to explain cross-country differences in financial development. We analyze whether societal norms in addition to legal institutions have an impact on financial development. We address the implications of the inclusion of societal norms for the analysis
A Legal Institutional Perspective on the European External Action Service
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Van Vooren, Bart
2011-01-01
the EEAS be drawn into proceedings before the Court of Justice? In answering those questions, this article then examines to which extent the legal-institutional choices on the structure of the EU External Action Service reflects the age-old tension entrenched in EU external relations law: the EU’s nature...
The penal aspect of the essence of the legal institute
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Олег Миколайович Кревсун
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Law, like any social phenomenon, can be the object of cognition only if legal norms that is its components, will come into connection with other legal norms, not only to form separate elements of the law. Without a comprehensive study of the interaction between legal norms, their role in the regulation of social relations will be impossible to develop effective legal measures of influence on various spheres of public life. Unfortunately, proper attention to this issue in Ukraine is not given. Examined, in fact, a certain set of interconnected rules of law, but each of them, representing this population, is investigated separately, without necessary connection with other laws. However, as presented in the legal literature, the research results confirmed the existence in law of such legal norms, which are involved in the regulation of certain social relations, being in its totality as an integrated whole. Such laws called legal institutions. Legal institutions, subinstitutes and interdisciplinary subinstitutes of penal law, both from the point of view of legal terminology and from the point of view of defining the content, in domestic science remains thoroughly unexplored and only mentioned in some scientific works of foreign authors. The term “legal institution” is used by scholars more as a term authoritative sound. In this article, we first provide a definition of the legal Institute, subinstitute and cross-subinstitute of penal law, interpret the normative contents of the allocated inherent characteristics, focusing on the absence in domestic science studies on this issue.
Trust in Legal Institutions: an Empirical Approach from a Social Capital Perspective
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mariana Zuleta Ferrari
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Over the last decades, there is a growing public perception that some of the democratic institutions and frameworks, which were once taken for granted, are now showing their flaws, inefficiencies, increasingly struggling to keep up with society’s demands and expectations. This has led to a generalized feeling of uncertainty and disappointment, resulting in a lack of trust institutions. The implications of these circumstances on legal theory cannot be overlooked; this article aims to address the problem from an innovative perspective. A unique tool is presented in this article, which proposes a methodological agenda for approaching trust in legal institutions, from the perspective of the social capital theory. To this end, different variables and social capital dynamics will be identified and discussed in relation to trust in legal institutions. The aim is to, on one hand, provide an innovative methodological contribution to better understand the trust crisis, and in particular, the public perception towards legal institutions, and on the other, expand the analysis of social capital dimensions. Durante las últimas décadas, ha sido posible observar una creciente percepción general de que instituciones y estructuras democráticas que años atrás eran dadas por sentadas, presentan, hoy en día, fallas e ineficiencias que dificultan su capacidad de acompañar las demandas y expectativas de la sociedad. Ello ha llevado a un estado generalizado de incertidumbre y decepción, que resulta en la falta de confianza en las instituciones. Las implicancias de estas circumstancias para la teoría legal no pueden ser subestimadas. Este artículo aborda el problema desde una pespectiva innovadora. Presenta una herramienta única que propone una agenda metodológica para aproximarse a la temática de la confianza en las instituciones legales, desde la perspectiva de la teoría del capital social. A este fin, distintas variables y dinámicas del capital
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mayo, L.H.
1977-09-01
Concern for the continuing sufficiency of energy supplies in the U.S. has tended to direct increasing attention to unconventional sources of supply, including wind energy. Some of the more striking proposals for the utilization of wind energy relate to offshore configurations. The legal-institutional arrangements for facilitating the utilization of offshore wind energy conversion systems (WECS) are examined by positioning three program alternatives and analyzing the institutional support required for the implementation of each.
PROBLEM ASPECTS OF FORMATION OF THE LEGAL INSTITUTE OF CONSOLIDATED TAXPAYERS’ GROUPS IN RUSSIA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Irina Glazunova
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The subject. The article is devoted to the prerequisites of the emergence and essential characteristics of the institution of consolidated taxpayers’ groups in Russia and abroad, revealing of advantages and disadvantages of the legal regulation of the creation and operation of consolidated groups of payers of corporate profits tax, analyzing results and directions of the development of tax consolidation in Russian Federation.The purpose of the article is to identify positive and negative aspects of the functioning of the institution of consolidated taxpayers’ groups in Russia with the establishment of prospects of tax consolidation and the likely directions of its development.The description of the problem field. The development of the world economic system stimulates the emergence of new forms of management, characterized by the enlargement of busi-ness, the pooling of resources of individual enterprises into a single system in order to optimize entrepreneurial activity. These trends are reflected in the development of tax systems of various countries, that is expressed in the formation of institutions of consolidated taxpayers’ groups. Tax consolidation in Russia is a relatively new phenomenon, and it seems necessary to examine this institution from the law enforcement point of view, to evaluate its effectiveness.Methods and methodology. The authors used methods of analysis, synthesis, as well as formal-legal, comparative-legal, historical methods of investigation.Results and the scope of its application. The authors note that the institution of tax consolidation today is presented in the tax systems of most modern countries.The practice of applying the institution of consolidated taxpayers’ groups testifies to the existence of a significant number of advantages and disadvantages of tax consolidation in Russia. The moratorium on the creation of consolidated taxpayers’ groups, due to the contradictory nature of their influence on the
Lammers, Imke; Heldeweg, Michiel A.
2016-01-01
Background: This article entails an innovative approach to smart grid technology implementation, as it connects governance research with legal analysis. We apply the empirico-legal ‘ILTIAD framework’, which combines Elinor Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework with
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Magdalena CATARGIU
2012-12-01
Full Text Available In the context of the development and omnipresence, in Europe, of the non-profit sector and due to the diversification of the legal entities that are involved in the configuration of the third sector, an legal analysis of the foundation of banking origins, is very appealing. Throughout this study we aim to point out key moments in the evolution of this particular figure, mainly in the Italian legislation. Nevertheless, we intend to identify the legal nature of the foundation of banking origins in order to draw a line between banking and philanthropic activities.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lippek, H.E.; Schuller, C.R.
1979-03-01
A study was conducted to identify major legal and institutional problems and issues in the transportation of spent fuel and associated processing wastes at the back end of the LWR nuclear fuel cycle. (Most of the discussion centers on the transportation of spent fuel, since this activity will involve virtually all of the legal and institutional problems likely to be encountered in moving waste materials, as well.) Actions or approaches that might be pursued to resolve the problems identified in the analysis are suggested. Two scenarios for the industrial-scale transportation of spent fuel and radioactive wastes, taken together, high-light most of the major problems and issues of a legal and institutional nature that are likely to arise: (1) utilizing the Allied General Nuclear Services (AGNS) facility at Barnwell, SC, as a temporary storage facility for spent fuel; and (2) utilizing AGNS for full-scale commercial reprocessing of spent LWR fuel
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lippek, H.E.; Schuller, C.R.
1979-03-01
A study was conducted to identify major legal and institutional problems and issues in the transportation of spent fuel and associated processing wastes at the back end of the LWR nuclear fuel cycle. (Most of the discussion centers on the transportation of spent fuel, since this activity will involve virtually all of the legal and institutional problems likely to be encountered in moving waste materials, as well.) Actions or approaches that might be pursued to resolve the problems identified in the analysis are suggested. Two scenarios for the industrial-scale transportation of spent fuel and radioactive wastes, taken together, high-light most of the major problems and issues of a legal and institutional nature that are likely to arise: (1) utilizing the Allied General Nuclear Services (AGNS) facility at Barnwell, SC, as a temporary storage facility for spent fuel; and (2) utilizing AGNS for full-scale commercial reprocessing of spent LWR fuel.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jean-François Nivet
2004-12-01
Full Text Available Post-socialist transition raises crucial issues about the institutional setting of a market economy. The priority has been given to property rights, and privatization has been advocated as a means to depoliticize economic activities. The dismissal of external interventions, allied with the attraction to the American model and Hayekian ideas, often led to the introduction of minimal laws and wait for their evolutionary development. The failure of corporate and public governance, notably in Russia, helps to show why, on the contrary, democratically established legal rules are essential. Legislation should not only protect corporate shareholders and stakeholders, but more fundamentally all citizens against predatory collusive behavior of political, economic and criminal elites
Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu
2013-01-01
The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...
Amir Farbin
The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, S.
2011-05-05
The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Organization requested that Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to mix and blend the miscible contents of the blend tanks to ensure the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank; such as, Tank 50H, to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The transient CFD governing equations consisting of three momentum equations, one mass balance, two turbulence transport equations for kinetic energy and dissipation rate, and one species transport were solved by an iterative technique until the species concentrations of tank fluid were in equilibrium. The steady-state flow solutions for the entire tank fluid were used for flow pattern analysis, for velocity scaling analysis, and the initial conditions for transient blending calculations. A series of the modeling calculations were performed to estimate the blending times for various jet flow conditions, and to investigate the impact of the cooling coils on the blending time of the tank contents. The modeling results were benchmarked against the pilot scale test results. All of the flow and mixing models were performed with the nozzles installed at the mid-elevation, and parallel to the tank wall. From the CFD modeling calculations, the main results are summarized as follows: (1) The benchmark analyses for the CFD flow velocity and blending models demonstrate their consistency with Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) and literature test results in terms of local velocity measurements and experimental observations. Thus, an application of the established criterion to SRS full scale tank will provide a better, physically-based estimate of the required mixing time, and
Operations and Modeling Analysis
Ebeling, Charles
2005-01-01
The Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) provides NASA the capability to estimate reliability and maintainability (R&M) parameters and operational support requirements for proposed space vehicles based upon relationships established from both aircraft and Shuttle R&M data. RMAT has matured both in its underlying database and in its level of sophistication in extrapolating this historical data to satisfy proposed mission requirements, maintenance concepts and policies, and type of vehicle (i.e. ranging from aircraft like to shuttle like). However, a companion analyses tool, the Logistics Cost Model (LCM) has not reached the same level of maturity as RMAT due, in large part, to nonexistent or outdated cost estimating relationships and underlying cost databases, and it's almost exclusive dependence on Shuttle operations and logistics cost input parameters. As a result, the full capability of the RMAT/LCM suite of analysis tools to take a conceptual vehicle and derive its operations and support requirements along with the resulting operating and support costs has not been realized.
1989-01-01
This Decree abolishes the Brazilian National Institute of Colonization and Agrarian Reform (INCRA) and creates a Legal Institute of Rural Land (INTER) linked to the Ministry of Agrarian Reform (MIRAD) to perform the activities of INCRA. MIRAD will henceforth be responsible for the rights, powers, and obligations of INCRA and will supervise INCRA's property and resources. In this capacity MIRAD will supervise, coordinate, and execute activities related to agrarian reform and agricultural policy. Among these activities are the promotion of social justice and productivity through 1) the just and adequate distribution of ownership of rural land, 2) limitation of the acquisition of rural property by foreigners, and 3) encouragement of the harmonious development of rural life. In developing such activities MIRAD is to make use of legal measures contained in land law, including those relating to the selection of public rural lands, the privatization of rural land through regularization of ownership, colonization, zoning, and taxation. It is also authorized to expropriate and distribute unexploited or improperly exploited land to worker families, with priority going to labor cooperatives. Further provisions establish rules on expropriation. Among these is the requirement that forests must be protected.
2014-01-01
This study developed a new snow model and a database which warehouses geometric, weather and traffic : data on New Jersey highways. The complexity of the model development lies in considering variable road : width, different spreading/plowing pattern...
Survival analysis models and applications
Liu, Xian
2012-01-01
Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws. Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malik, S; Bloom, K; Shipsey, I; Cavanaugh, R; Klima, B; Chan, Kai-Feng; D'Hondt, J; Narain, M; Palla, F; Rolandi, G; Schörner-Sadenius, T
2014-01-01
To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Malik, S. [Nebraska U.; Shipsey, I. [Purdue U.; Cavanaugh, R. [Illinois U., Chicago; Bloom, K. [Nebraska U.; Chan, Kai-Feng [Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.; D' Hondt, J. [Vrije U., Brussels; Klima, B. [Fermilab; Narain, M. [Brown U.; Palla, F. [INFN, Pisa; Rolandi, G. [CERN; Schörner-Sadenius, T. [DESY
2014-01-01
To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.
ORGANISATIONAL CULTURE ANALYSIS MODEL
Mihaela Simona Maracine
2012-01-01
The studies and researches undertaken have demonstrated the importance of studying organisational culture because of the practical valences it presents and because it contributes to increasing the organisation’s performance. The analysis of the organisational culture’s dimensions allows observing human behaviour within the organisation and highlighting reality, identifying the strengths and also the weaknesses which have an impact on its functionality and development. In this paper, we try to...
ROCK PROPERTIES MODEL ANALYSIS MODEL REPORT
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clinton Lum
2002-01-01
The purpose of this Analysis and Model Report (AMR) is to document Rock Properties Model (RPM) 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties models are intended principally for use as input to numerical physical-process modeling, such as of ground-water flow and/or radionuclide transport. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. This work was conducted in accordance with the following planning documents: WA-0344, ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1998'' (SNL 1997, WA-0358), ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1999'' (SNL 1999), and the technical development plan, Rock Properties Model Version 3.1, (CRWMS MandO 1999c). The Interim Change Notice (ICNs), ICN 02 and ICN 03, of this AMR were prepared as part of activities being conducted under the Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, ''Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01'' (CRWMS MandO 2000b). The purpose of ICN 03 is to record changes in data input status due to data qualification and verification activities. These work plans describe the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and implementing procedures for model construction. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The work scope for this activity consists of the following: (1) Conversion of the input data (laboratory measured porosity data, x-ray diffraction mineralogy, petrophysical calculations of bound water, and petrophysical calculations of porosity) for each borehole into stratigraphic coordinates; (2) Re-sampling and merging of data sets; (3) Development of geostatistical simulations of porosity; (4
Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model
Ming Lu; Hai Zhu; Xia Luo; Lei Lei
2014-01-01
It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model...
Uncertainty analysis of environmental models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Monte, L.
1990-01-01
In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition
Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling
Zayed, Ahmed
2013-01-01
Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling presents recent advances in multiscale analysis and modeling using wavelets and other systems. This book also presents applications in digital signal processing using sampling theory and techniques from various function spaces, filter design, feature extraction and classification, signal and image representation/transmission, coding, nonparametric statistical signal processing, and statistical learning theory. This book also: Discusses recently developed signal modeling techniques, such as the multiscale method for complex time series modeling, multiscale positive density estimations, Bayesian Shrinkage Strategies, and algorithms for data adaptive statistics Introduces new sampling algorithms for multidimensional signal processing Provides comprehensive coverage of wavelets with presentations on waveform design and modeling, wavelet analysis of ECG signals and wavelet filters Reviews features extraction and classification algorithms for multiscale signal and image proce...
Multivariate analysis: models and method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sanz Perucha, J.
1990-01-01
Data treatment techniques are increasingly used since computer methods result of wider access. Multivariate analysis consists of a group of statistic methods that are applied to study objects or samples characterized by multiple values. A final goal is decision making. The paper describes the models and methods of multivariate analysis
Domain specific modeling and analysis
Jacob, Joost Ferdinand
2008-01-01
It is desirable to model software systems in such a way that analysis of the systems, and tool development for such analysis, is readily possible and feasible in the context of large scientific research projects. This thesis emphasizes the methodology that serves as a basis for such developments.
Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2009-01-01
This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial
Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation
Nelson, Barry L
1995-01-01
A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Felipe Dutra Asensi
2010-01-01
citizenship. In the context of enforcing rights, there is a discussion of legal institutions, with particular emphasis on the Prosecutor's Office, Public Defender and the Judiciary. It is observed that the realization of the right to health includes the preservation of continuity of public policies through dialogue. Thus, political conflicts suffer more juridicization (conflicts are discussed from the legal viewpoint than judicialization (to the most, you avoid taking them to the judiciary, since the intention is to avoid the judicial process and adopt multiple strategies and extra-judicial pacts. The ability to act independently brings the political highlight of the Parquet as a mediator in health. The very idea of right to health is receiving a new meaning, encompassing an interdisciplinary character, which increases the possibilities of action of the Parquet on its guarantee and helps in self-defense of a lasting health policy aimed at bringing the world of right in the world of facts.
Reliability analysis and operator modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hollnagel, Erik
1996-01-01
The paper considers the state of operator modelling in reliability analysis. Operator models are needed in reliability analysis because operators are needed in process control systems. HRA methods must therefore be able to account both for human performance variability and for the dynamics of the interaction. A selected set of first generation HRA approaches is briefly described in terms of the operator model they use, their classification principle, and the actual method they propose. In addition, two examples of second generation methods are also considered. It is concluded that first generation HRA methods generally have very simplistic operator models, either referring to the time-reliability relationship or to elementary information processing concepts. It is argued that second generation HRA methods must recognise that cognition is embedded in a context, and be able to account for that in the way human reliability is analysed and assessed
Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ming Lu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.
Bayesian analysis of CCDM models
Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.
2017-09-01
Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.
Bayesian analysis of CCDM models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)
2017-09-01
Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.
Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis | Energy Analysis | NREL
Generation (ReEDS Model Analysis) U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Modeling and Analysis Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis NREL's energy-water modeling and analysis vulnerabilities from various factors, including water. Example Projects Renewable Electricity Futures Study
Conformational analysis of lignin models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Santos, Helio F. dos
2001-01-01
The conformational equilibrium for two 5,5' biphenyl lignin models have been analyzed using a quantum mechanical semiempirical method. The gas phase and solution structures are discussed based on the NMR and X-ray experimental data. The results obtained showed that the observed conformations are solvent-dependent, being the geometries and the thermodynamic properties correlated with the experimental information. This study shows how a systematic theoretical conformational analysis can help to understand chemical processes at a molecular level. (author)
Distribution system modeling and analysis
Kersting, William H
2001-01-01
For decades, distribution engineers did not have the sophisticated tools developed for analyzing transmission systems-often they had only their instincts. Things have changed, and we now have computer programs that allow engineers to simulate, analyze, and optimize distribution systems. Powerful as these programs are, however, without a real understanding of the operating characteristics of a distribution system, engineers using the programs can easily make serious errors in their designs and operating procedures. Distribution System Modeling and Analysis helps prevent those errors. It gives readers a basic understanding of the modeling and operating characteristics of the major components of a distribution system. One by one, the author develops and analyzes each component as a stand-alone element, then puts them all together to analyze a distribution system comprising the various shunt and series devices for power-flow and short-circuit studies. He includes the derivation of all models and includes many num...
Ventilation Model and Analysis Report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chipman, V.
2003-01-01
This model and analysis report develops, validates, and implements a conceptual model for heat transfer in and around a ventilated emplacement drift. This conceptual model includes thermal radiation between the waste package and the drift wall, convection from the waste package and drift wall surfaces into the flowing air, and conduction in the surrounding host rock. These heat transfer processes are coupled and vary both temporally and spatially, so numerical and analytical methods are used to implement the mathematical equations which describe the conceptual model. These numerical and analytical methods predict the transient response of the system, at the drift scale, in terms of spatially varying temperatures and ventilation efficiencies. The ventilation efficiency describes the effectiveness of the ventilation process in removing radionuclide decay heat from the drift environment. An alternative conceptual model is also developed which evaluates the influence of water and water vapor mass transport on the ventilation efficiency. These effects are described using analytical methods which bound the contribution of latent heat to the system, quantify the effects of varying degrees of host rock saturation (and hence host rock thermal conductivity) on the ventilation efficiency, and evaluate the effects of vapor and enhanced vapor diffusion on the host rock thermal conductivity
ANALYSIS MODEL FOR INVENTORY MANAGEMENT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
CAMELIA BURJA
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The inventory represents an essential component for the assets of the enterprise and the economic analysis gives them special importance because their accurate management determines the achievement of the activity object and the financial results. The efficient management of inventory requires ensuring an optimum level for them, which will guarantee the normal functioning of the activity with minimum inventory expenses and funds which are immobilised. The paper presents an analysis model for inventory management based on their rotation speed and the correlation with the sales volume illustrated in an adequate study. The highlighting of the influence factors on the efficient inventory management ensures the useful information needed to justify managerial decisions, which will lead to a balancedfinancial position and to increased company performance.
Simplified model for DNB analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silva Filho, E.
1979-08-01
In a pressurized water nuclear reactor (PWR), the power of operation is restricted by the possibility of the occurrence of the departure from nucleate boiling called DNB (Departure from Nucleate Boiling) in the hottest channel of the core. The present work proposes a simplified model that analyses the thermal-hydraulic conditions of the coolant in the hottest channel of PWRs with the objective to evaluate BNB in this channel. For this the coupling between the hot channel and typical nominal channels assumed imposing the existence of a cross flow between these channels in a way that a uniforme pressure axial distribution results along the channels. The model is applied for Angra-I reactor and the results are compared with those of Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) obtained by Westinghouse through the THINC program, beeing considered satisfactory (Author) [pt
Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
R. Clayton
2000-12-19
The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and the
Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clayton, R.
2000-01-01
The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M and O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and
Arc modeling for welding analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Glickstein, S.S.
1978-04-01
A one-dimensional model of the welding arc that considers heat generation by the Joule effect and heat losses by radiation and conduction has been used to study the effects of various gases and gas mixtures currently employed for welding applications. Minor additions of low ionization potential impurities to these gases are shown to significantly perturb the electrical properties of the parent gas causing gross changes in the radial temperature distribution of the arc discharge. Such changes are reflected in the current density distribution and ultimately in the input energy distribution to the weldment. The result is observed as a variation in weld penetration. Recently published experiments and analyses of welding arcs are also evaluated and shown to contain erroneous data and results. Contrary to previous beliefs, the inclusion of a radiation loss term in the basic energy balance equation is important and cannot be considered as negligible in an argon arc at temperatures as low as 10,000 0 K. The one-dimensional analysis of the welding arc as well as the evaluation of these earlier published reports helps to explain the effects of various gases used for welding, improves our understanding of the physics of the welding arc, and provides a stepping stone for a more elaborate model which can be applied to help optimize welding parameters
Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)
Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)
Hypersonic - Model Analysis as a Service
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Acretoaie, Vlad; Störrle, Harald
2014-01-01
Hypersonic is a Cloud-based tool that proposes a new approach to the deployment of model analysis facilities. It is implemented as a RESTful Web service API o_ering analysis features such as model clone detection. This approach allows the migration of resource intensive analysis algorithms from...
Formal Analysis of Domain Models
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Bharadwaj, Ramesh
2002-01-01
Recently, there has been a great deal of interest in the application of formal methods, in particular, precise formal notations and automatic analysis tools for the creation and analysis of requirements specifications (i.e...
ModelMate - A graphical user interface for model analysis
Banta, Edward R.
2011-01-01
ModelMate is a graphical user interface designed to facilitate use of model-analysis programs with models. This initial version of ModelMate supports one model-analysis program, UCODE_2005, and one model software program, MODFLOW-2005. ModelMate can be used to prepare input files for UCODE_2005, run UCODE_2005, and display analysis results. A link to the GW_Chart graphing program facilitates visual interpretation of results. ModelMate includes capabilities for organizing directories used with the parallel-processing capabilities of UCODE_2005 and for maintaining files in those directories to be identical to a set of files in a master directory. ModelMate can be used on its own or in conjunction with ModelMuse, a graphical user interface for MODFLOW-2005 and PHAST.
Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre
The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....
Model Checking as Static Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhang, Fuyuan
fairness problems can be encoded into ALFP as well. To deal with multi-valued model checking problems, we have proposed multivalued ALFP. A Moore Family result for multi-valued ALFP is also established, which ensures the existence and uniqueness of the least model. When the truth values in multi-valued...... of states satisfying a CTL formula can be characterized as the least model of ALFP clauses specifying this CTL formula. The existence of the least model of ALFP clauses is ensured by the Moore Family property of ALFP. Then, we take fairness assumptions in CTL into consideration and have shown that CTL...... ALFP constitute a nite distributive complete lattice, multi-valued ALFP can be reduced to two-valued ALFP. This result enables to implement a solver for multi-valued ALFP by reusing existing solvers for twovalued ALFP. Our ALFP-based technique developed for the two-valued CTL naturally generalizes...
CMS Data Analysis School Model
Malik, Sudhir; Cavanaugh, R; Bloom, K; Chan, Kai-Feng; D'Hondt, J; Klima, B; Narain, M; Palla, F; Rolandi, G; Schörner-Sadenius, T
2014-01-01
To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the Â concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Center), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorialsÂ and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained inÂ six CMSDAS around the globe , CMS is trying toÂ Â engage the collaboration discovery potential and maximize the physics output. As a bigger goal,Â CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talentsÂ of CMS, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education ofÂ those new to CMS and the caree...
Adaptive streaming applications : analysis and implementation models
Zhai, Jiali Teddy
2015-01-01
This thesis presents a highly automated design framework, called DaedalusRT, and several novel techniques. As the foundation of the DaedalusRT design framework, two types of dataflow Models-of-Computation (MoC) are used, one as timing analysis model and another one as the implementation model. The
Representing Uncertainty on Model Analysis Plots
Smith, Trevor I.
2016-01-01
Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model.…
Analysis of radiology business models.
Enzmann, Dieter R; Schomer, Donald F
2013-03-01
As health care moves to value orientation, radiology's traditional business model faces challenges to adapt. The authors describe a strategic value framework that radiology practices can use to best position themselves in their environments. This simplified construct encourages practices to define their dominant value propositions. There are 3 main value propositions that form a conceptual triangle, whose vertices represent the low-cost provider, the product leader, and the customer intimacy models. Each vertex has been a valid market position, but each demands specific capabilities and trade-offs. The underlying concepts help practices select value propositions they can successfully deliver in their competitive environments. Copyright © 2013 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Combustion instability modeling and analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Santoro, R.J.; Yang, V.; Santavicca, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States); Sheppard, E.J. [Tuskeggee Univ., Tuskegee, AL (United States). Dept. of Aerospace Engineering
1995-12-31
It is well known that the two key elements for achieving low emissions and high performance in a gas turbine combustor are to simultaneously establish (1) a lean combustion zone for maintaining low NO{sub x} emissions and (2) rapid mixing for good ignition and flame stability. However, these requirements, when coupled with the short combustor lengths used to limit the residence time for NO formation typical of advanced gas turbine combustors, can lead to problems regarding unburned hydrocarbons (UHC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, as well as the occurrence of combustion instabilities. The concurrent development of suitable analytical and numerical models that are validated with experimental studies is important for achieving this objective. A major benefit of the present research will be to provide for the first time an experimentally verified model of emissions and performance of gas turbine combustors. The present study represents a coordinated effort between industry, government and academia to investigate gas turbine combustion dynamics. Specific study areas include development of advanced diagnostics, definition of controlling phenomena, advancement of analytical and numerical modeling capabilities, and assessment of the current status of our ability to apply these tools to practical gas turbine combustors. The present work involves four tasks which address, respectively, (1) the development of a fiber-optic probe for fuel-air ratio measurements, (2) the study of combustion instability using laser-based diagnostics in a high pressure, high temperature flow reactor, (3) the development of analytical and numerical modeling capabilities for describing combustion instability which will be validated against experimental data, and (4) the preparation of a literature survey and establishment of a data base on practical experience with combustion instability.
Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data
Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E
2003-01-01
Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat
Representing uncertainty on model analysis plots
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Trevor I. Smith
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model. Unfortunately, Bao’s original presentation of the model plot did not include a way to represent uncertainty in these measurements. I present details of a method to add error bars to model plots by expanding the work of Sommer and Lindell. I also provide a template for generating model plots with error bars.
Combustion instability modeling and analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Santoro, R.J.; Yang, V.; Santavicca, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)] [and others
1995-10-01
It is well known that the two key elements for achieving low emissions and high performance in a gas turbine combustor are to simultaneously establish (1) a lean combustion zone for maintaining low NO{sub x} emissions and (2) rapid mixing for good ignition and flame stability. However, these requirements, when coupled with the short combustor lengths used to limit the residence time for NO formation typical of advanced gas turbine combustors, can lead to problems regarding unburned hydrocarbons (UHC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, as well as the occurrence of combustion instabilities. Clearly, the key to successful gas turbine development is based on understanding the effects of geometry and operating conditions on combustion instability, emissions (including UHC, CO and NO{sub x}) and performance. The concurrent development of suitable analytical and numerical models that are validated with experimental studies is important for achieving this objective. A major benefit of the present research will be to provide for the first time an experimentally verified model of emissions and performance of gas turbine combustors.
Three-dimensional model analysis and processing
Yu, Faxin; Luo, Hao; Wang, Pinghui
2011-01-01
This book focuses on five hot research directions in 3D model analysis and processing in computer science: compression, feature extraction, content-based retrieval, irreversible watermarking and reversible watermarking.
Two sustainable energy system analysis models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lund, Henrik; Goran Krajacic, Neven Duic; da Graca Carvalho, Maria
2005-01-01
This paper presents a comparative study of two energy system analysis models both designed with the purpose of analysing electricity systems with a substantial share of fluctuating renewable energy....
Automatic differentiation algorithms in model analysis
Huiskes, M.J.
2002-01-01
Title: Automatic differentiation algorithms in model analysis
Author: M.J. Huiskes
Date: 19 March, 2002
In this thesis automatic differentiation algorithms and derivative-based methods
Applied research in uncertainty modeling and analysis
Ayyub, Bilal
2005-01-01
Uncertainty has been a concern to engineers, managers, and scientists for many years. For a long time uncertainty has been considered synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Since the early sixties views on uncertainty have become more heterogeneous. In the past forty years numerous tools that model uncertainty, above and beyond statistics, have been proposed by several engineers and scientists. The tool/method to model uncertainty in a specific context should really be chosen by considering the features of the phenomenon under consideration, not independent of what is known about the system and what causes uncertainty. In this fascinating overview of the field, the authors provide broad coverage of uncertainty analysis/modeling and its application. Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis presents the perspectives of various researchers and practitioners on uncertainty analysis and modeling outside their own fields and domain expertise. Rather than focusing explicitly on...
Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management
Wehrspohn, Uwe
2002-01-01
An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...
Ignalina NPP Safety Analysis: Models and Results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uspuras, E.
1999-01-01
Research directions, linked to safety assessment of the Ignalina NPP, of the scientific safety analysis group are presented: Thermal-hydraulic analysis of accidents and operational transients; Thermal-hydraulic assessment of Ignalina NPP Accident Localization System and other compartments; Structural analysis of plant components, piping and other parts of Main Circulation Circuit; Assessment of RBMK-1500 reactor core and other. Models and main works carried out last year are described. (author)
FAME, the flux analysis and modelling environment
Boele, J.; Olivier, B.G.; Teusink, B.
2012-01-01
Background: The creation and modification of genome-scale metabolic models is a task that requires specialized software tools. While these are available, subsequently running or visualizing a model often relies on disjoint code, which adds additional actions to the analysis routine and, in our
A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model
Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.
2015-01-01
In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…
Numerical modeling techniques for flood analysis
Anees, Mohd Talha; Abdullah, K.; Nawawi, M. N. M.; Ab Rahman, Nik Norulaini Nik; Piah, Abd. Rahni Mt.; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Syakir, M. I.; Mohd. Omar, A. K.
2016-12-01
Topographic and climatic changes are the main causes of abrupt flooding in tropical areas. It is the need to find out exact causes and effects of these changes. Numerical modeling techniques plays a vital role for such studies due to their use of hydrological parameters which are strongly linked with topographic changes. In this review, some of the widely used models utilizing hydrological and river modeling parameters and their estimation in data sparse region are discussed. Shortcomings of 1D and 2D numerical models and the possible improvements over these models through 3D modeling are also discussed. It is found that the HEC-RAS and FLO 2D model are best in terms of economical and accurate flood analysis for river and floodplain modeling respectively. Limitations of FLO 2D in floodplain modeling mainly such as floodplain elevation differences and its vertical roughness in grids were found which can be improve through 3D model. Therefore, 3D model was found to be more suitable than 1D and 2D models in terms of vertical accuracy in grid cells. It was also found that 3D models for open channel flows already developed recently but not for floodplain. Hence, it was suggested that a 3D model for floodplain should be developed by considering all hydrological and high resolution topographic parameter's models, discussed in this review, to enhance the findings of causes and effects of flooding.
Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hal Caswell
2008-03-01
Full Text Available Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models, feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g. dependency ratios, age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations.
Development of stock markets, societal norms and legal institutions
Garretsen, Harry; Lensink, Robert; Sterken, Elmer
2000-01-01
We explain the development of stock markets by both legal and societal determinants and analyze the relevance of both determinants in the Levine-Zervos (1998) cross-sectional growth regressions. We argue that the legal indicators as developed by La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer and Vishny (1998)
MSSV Modeling for Wolsong-1 Safety Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moon, Bok Ja; Choi, Chul Jin; Kim, Seoung Rae [KEPCO EandC, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2010-10-15
The main steam safety valves (MSSVs) are installed on the main steam line to prevent the overpressurization of the system. MSSVs are held in closed position by spring force and the valves pop open by internal force when the main steam pressure increases to open set pressure. If the overpressure condition is relieved, the valves begin to close. For the safety analysis of anticipated accident condition, the safety systems are modeled conservatively to simulate the accident condition more severe. MSSVs are also modeled conservatively for the analysis of over-pressurization accidents. In this paper, the pressure transient is analyzed at over-pressurization condition to evaluate the conservatism for MSSV models
Simulation modeling and analysis with Arena
Altiok, Tayfur
2007-01-01
Simulation Modeling and Analysis with Arena is a highly readable textbook which treats the essentials of the Monte Carlo discrete-event simulation methodology, and does so in the context of a popular Arena simulation environment. It treats simulation modeling as an in-vitro laboratory that facilitates the understanding of complex systems and experimentation with what-if scenarios in order to estimate their performance metrics. The book contains chapters on the simulation modeling methodology and the underpinnings of discrete-event systems, as well as the relevant underlying probability, statistics, stochastic processes, input analysis, model validation and output analysis. All simulation-related concepts are illustrated in numerous Arena examples, encompassing production lines, manufacturing and inventory systems, transportation systems, and computer information systems in networked settings.· Introduces the concept of discrete event Monte Carlo simulation, the most commonly used methodology for modeli...
A Requirements Analysis Model Based on QFD
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
TANG Zhi-wei; Nelson K.H.Tang
2004-01-01
The enterprise resource planning (ERP) system has emerged to offer an integrated IT solution and more and more enterprises are increasing by adopting this system and regarding it as an important innovation. However, there is already evidence of high failure risks in ERP project implementation, one major reason is poor analysis of the requirements for system implementation. In this paper, the importance of requirements analysis for ERP project implementation is highlighted, and a requirements analysis model by applying quality function deployment (QFD) is presented, which will support to conduct requirements analysis for ERP project.
Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ieva Kekytė
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.
Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.
Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet
2017-02-01
Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.
Critical analysis of algebraic collective models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moshinsky, M.
1986-01-01
The author shall understand by algebraic collective models all those based on specific Lie algebras, whether the latter are suggested through simple shell model considerations like in the case of the Interacting Boson Approximation (IBA), or have a detailed microscopic foundation like the symplectic model. To analyze these models critically, it is convenient to take a simple conceptual example of them in which all steps can be implemented analytically or through elementary numerical analysis. In this note he takes as an example the symplectic model in a two dimensional space i.e. based on a sp(4,R) Lie algebra, and show how through its complete discussion we can get a clearer understanding of the structure of algebraic collective models of nuclei. In particular he discusses the association of Hamiltonians, related to maximal subalgebras of our basic Lie algebra, with specific types of spectra, and the connections between spectra and shapes
Model Selection in Data Analysis Competitions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wind, David Kofoed; Winther, Ole
2014-01-01
The use of data analysis competitions for selecting the most appropriate model for a problem is a recent innovation in the field of predictive machine learning. Two of the most well-known examples of this trend was the Netflix Competition and recently the competitions hosted on the online platform...... performers from Kaggle and use previous personal experiences from competing in Kaggle competitions. The stated hypotheses about feature engineering, ensembling, overfitting, model complexity and evaluation metrics give indications and guidelines on how to select a proper model for performing well...... Kaggle. In this paper, we will state and try to verify a set of qualitative hypotheses about predictive modelling, both in general and in the scope of data analysis competitions. To verify our hypotheses we will look at previous competitions and their outcomes, use qualitative interviews with top...
LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.
2014-01-01
This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)
FAME, the Flux Analysis and Modeling Environment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Boele Joost
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The creation and modification of genome-scale metabolic models is a task that requires specialized software tools. While these are available, subsequently running or visualizing a model often relies on disjoint code, which adds additional actions to the analysis routine and, in our experience, renders these applications suboptimal for routine use by (systems biologists. Results The Flux Analysis and Modeling Environment (FAME is the first web-based modeling tool that combines the tasks of creating, editing, running, and analyzing/visualizing stoichiometric models into a single program. Analysis results can be automatically superimposed on familiar KEGG-like maps. FAME is written in PHP and uses the Python-based PySCeS-CBM for its linear solving capabilities. It comes with a comprehensive manual and a quick-start tutorial, and can be accessed online at http://f-a-m-e.org/. Conclusions With FAME, we present the community with an open source, user-friendly, web-based "one stop shop" for stoichiometric modeling. We expect the application will be of substantial use to investigators and educators alike.
Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.
1977-01-01
In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text
Modeling and Analysis of Space Based Transceivers
Moore, Michael S.; Price, Jeremy C.; Abbott, Ben; Liebetreu, John; Reinhart, Richard C.; Kacpura, Thomas J.
2007-01-01
This paper presents the tool chain, methodology, and initial results of a study to provide a thorough, objective, and quantitative analysis of the design alternatives for space Software Defined Radio (SDR) transceivers. The approach taken was to develop a set of models and tools for describing communications requirements, the algorithm resource requirements, the available hardware, and the alternative software architectures, and generate analysis data necessary to compare alternative designs. The Space Transceiver Analysis Tool (STAT) was developed to help users identify and select representative designs, calculate the analysis data, and perform a comparative analysis of the representative designs. The tool allows the design space to be searched quickly while permitting incremental refinement in regions of higher payoff.
Modeling and analysis of stochastic systems
Kulkarni, Vidyadhar G
2011-01-01
Based on the author's more than 25 years of teaching experience, Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition covers the most important classes of stochastic processes used in the modeling of diverse systems, from supply chains and inventory systems to genetics and biological systems. For each class of stochastic process, the text includes its definition, characterization, applications, transient and limiting behavior, first passage times, and cost/reward models. Along with reorganizing the material, this edition revises and adds new exercises and examples. New to the second edi
Independent Component Analysis in Multimedia Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Jan
2003-01-01
largely refers to text, images/video, audio and combinations of such data. We review a number of applications within single and combined media with the hope that this might provide inspiration for further research in this area. Finally, we provide a detailed presentation of our own recent work on modeling......Modeling of multimedia and multimodal data becomes increasingly important with the digitalization of the world. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of independent component analysis and blind sources separation methods for modeling and understanding of multimedia data, which...
Review and analysis of biomass gasification models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Puig Arnavat, Maria; Bruno, Joan Carles; Coronas, Alberto
2010-01-01
, and the design, simulation, optimisation and process analysis of gasifiers have been carried out. This paper presents and analyses several gasification models based on thermodynamic equilibrium, kinetics and artificial neural networks. The thermodynamic models are found to be a useful tool for preliminary...... comparison and for process studies on the influence of the most important fuel and process parameters. They have the advantage of being independent of gasifier design, but they cannot give highly accurate results for all cases. The kinetic-based models are computationally more intensive but give accurate...
Modeling, Analysis, and Optimization Issues for Large Space Structures
Pinson, L. D. (Compiler); Amos, A. K. (Compiler); Venkayya, V. B. (Compiler)
1983-01-01
Topics concerning the modeling, analysis, and optimization of large space structures are discussed including structure-control interaction, structural and structural dynamics modeling, thermal analysis, testing, and design.
Interactive Visual Analysis within Dynamic Ocean Models
Butkiewicz, T.
2012-12-01
The many observation and simulation based ocean models available today can provide crucial insights for all fields of marine research and can serve as valuable references when planning data collection missions. However, the increasing size and complexity of these models makes leveraging their contents difficult for end users. Through a combination of data visualization techniques, interactive analysis tools, and new hardware technologies, the data within these models can be made more accessible to domain scientists. We present an interactive system that supports exploratory visual analysis within large-scale ocean flow models. The currents and eddies within the models are illustrated using effective, particle-based flow visualization techniques. Stereoscopic displays and rendering methods are employed to ensure that the user can correctly perceive the complex 3D structures of depth-dependent flow patterns. Interactive analysis tools are provided which allow the user to experiment through the introduction of their customizable virtual dye particles into the models to explore regions of interest. A multi-touch interface provides natural, efficient interaction, with custom multi-touch gestures simplifying the otherwise challenging tasks of navigating and positioning tools within a 3D environment. We demonstrate the potential applications of our visual analysis environment with two examples of real-world significance: Firstly, an example of using customized particles with physics-based behaviors to simulate pollutant release scenarios, including predicting the oil plume path for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster. Secondly, an interactive tool for plotting and revising proposed autonomous underwater vehicle mission pathlines with respect to the surrounding flow patterns predicted by the model; as these survey vessels have extremely limited energy budgets, designing more efficient paths allows for greater survey areas.
Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers
Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard
2012-01-01
The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…
Analysis of MUF data using arima models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Downing, D.J.; Pike, D.H.; Morrison, G.W.
1978-01-01
An introduction to Box-Jenkins time series analysis is presented. It is shown how the models presented by Box-Jenkins can be applied to material unaccounted for (MUF) data to detect losses. For the constant loss case an optimal estimate of the loss is found and its probability of detection found
Power system stability modelling, analysis and control
Sallam, Abdelhay A
2015-01-01
This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the subject from both a physical and mathematical perspective and covers a range of topics including modelling, computation of load flow in the transmission grid, stability analysis under both steady-state and disturbed conditions, and appropriate controls to enhance stability.
Comparative Distributions of Hazard Modeling Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rana Abdul Wajid
2006-07-01
Full Text Available In this paper we present the comparison among the distributions used in hazard analysis. Simulation technique has been used to study the behavior of hazard distribution modules. The fundamentals of Hazard issues are discussed using failure criteria. We present the flexibility of the hazard modeling distribution that approaches to different distributions.
Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems
Ciortea, E. M.
2015-11-01
The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.
Conceptual models for waste tank mechanistic analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Allemann, R.T.; Antoniak, Z.I.; Eyler, L.L.; Liljegren, L.M.; Roberts, J.S.
1992-02-01
Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is conducting a study for Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), a contractor for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The purpose of the work is to study possible mechanisms and fluid dynamics contributing to the periodic release of gases from double-shell waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington. This interim report emphasizing the modeling work follows two other interim reports, Mechanistic Analysis of Double-Shell Tank Gas Release Progress Report -- November 1990 and Collection and Analysis of Existing Data for Waste Tank Mechanistic Analysis Progress Report -- December 1990, that emphasized data correlation and mechanisms. The approach in this study has been to assemble and compile data that are pertinent to the mechanisms, analyze the data, evaluate physical properties and parameters, evaluate hypothetical mechanisms, and develop mathematical models of mechanisms
ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF GENEVA MECHANISM
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
HARAGA Georgeta
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The paper presents some aspects theoretical and practical based on the finite element analysis and modelling of Geneva mechanism with four slots, using the CATIA graphic program. This type of mechanism is an example of intermittent gearing that translates a continuous rotation into an intermittent rotary motion. It consists of alternate periods of motion and rest without reversing direction. In this paper, some design parameters with specify a Geneva mechanism will be defined precisely such as number of driving cranks, number of slots, wheel diameter, pin diameter, etc. Finite element analysis (FEA can be used for creating a finite element model (preprocessing and visualizing the analysis results (postprocessing, and use other solvers for processing.
Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Niebert, Peter
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-proceedings of the First International Workshop on Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems, FORMATS 2003, held in Marseille, France in September 2003. The 19 revised full papers presented together with an invited paper and the abstracts of ...... systems, discrete time systems, timed languages, and real-time operating systems....... of two invited talks were carefully selected from 36 submissions during two rounds of reviewing and improvement. All current aspects of formal method for modeling and analyzing timed systems are addressed; among the timed systems dealt with are timed automata, timed Petri nets, max-plus algebras, real-time......This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-proceedings of the First International Workshop on Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems, FORMATS 2003, held in Marseille, France in September 2003. The 19 revised full papers presented together with an invited paper and the abstracts...
Ferrofluids: Modeling, numerical analysis, and scientific computation
Tomas, Ignacio
This dissertation presents some developments in the Numerical Analysis of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) describing the behavior of ferrofluids. The most widely accepted PDE model for ferrofluids is the Micropolar model proposed by R.E. Rosensweig. The Micropolar Navier-Stokes Equations (MNSE) is a subsystem of PDEs within the Rosensweig model. Being a simplified version of the much bigger system of PDEs proposed by Rosensweig, the MNSE are a natural starting point of this thesis. The MNSE couple linear velocity u, angular velocity w, and pressure p. We propose and analyze a first-order semi-implicit fully-discrete scheme for the MNSE, which decouples the computation of the linear and angular velocities, is unconditionally stable and delivers optimal convergence rates under assumptions analogous to those used for the Navier-Stokes equations. Moving onto the much more complex Rosensweig's model, we provide a definition (approximation) for the effective magnetizing field h, and explain the assumptions behind this definition. Unlike previous definitions available in the literature, this new definition is able to accommodate the effect of external magnetic fields. Using this definition we setup the system of PDEs coupling linear velocity u, pressure p, angular velocity w, magnetization m, and magnetic potential ϕ We show that this system is energy-stable and devise a numerical scheme that mimics the same stability property. We prove that solutions of the numerical scheme always exist and, under certain simplifying assumptions, that the discrete solutions converge. A notable outcome of the analysis of the numerical scheme for the Rosensweig's model is the choice of finite element spaces that allow the construction of an energy-stable scheme. Finally, with the lessons learned from Rosensweig's model, we develop a diffuse-interface model describing the behavior of two-phase ferrofluid flows and present an energy-stable numerical scheme for this model. For a
Parametric Analysis of Flexible Logic Control Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lihua Fu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Based on deep analysis about the essential relation between two input variables of normal two-dimensional fuzzy controller, we used universal combinatorial operation model to describe the logic relationship and gave a flexible logic control method to realize the effective control for complex system. In practical control application, how to determine the general correlation coefficient of flexible logic control model is a problem for further studies. First, the conventional universal combinatorial operation model has been limited in the interval [0,1]. Consequently, this paper studies a kind of universal combinatorial operation model based on the interval [a,b]. And some important theorems are given and proved, which provide a foundation for the flexible logic control method. For dealing reasonably with the complex relations of every factor in complex system, a kind of universal combinatorial operation model with unequal weights is put forward. Then, this paper has carried out the parametric analysis of flexible logic control model. And some research results have been given, which have important directive to determine the values of the general correlation coefficients in practical control application.
Sensitivity analysis of a modified energy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suganthi, L.; Jagadeesan, T.R.
1997-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is carried out to validate model formulation. A modified model has been developed to predict the future energy requirement of coal, oil and electricity, considering price, income, technological and environmental factors. The impact and sensitivity of the independent variables on the dependent variable are analysed. The error distribution pattern in the modified model as compared to a conventional time series model indicated the absence of clusters. The residual plot of the modified model showed no distinct pattern of variation. The percentage variation of error in the conventional time series model for coal and oil ranges from -20% to +20%, while for electricity it ranges from -80% to +20%. However, in the case of the modified model the percentage variation in error is greatly reduced - for coal it ranges from -0.25% to +0.15%, for oil -0.6% to +0.6% and for electricity it ranges from -10% to +10%. The upper and lower limit consumption levels at 95% confidence is determined. The consumption at varying percentage changes in price and population are analysed. The gap between the modified model predictions at varying percentage changes in price and population over the years from 1990 to 2001 is found to be increasing. This is because of the increasing rate of energy consumption over the years and also the confidence level decreases as the projection is made far into the future. (author)
Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong
2004-07-01
This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard.
Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong
2004-07-01
This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard
Social phenomena from data analysis to models
Perra, Nicola
2015-01-01
This book focuses on the new possibilities and approaches to social modeling currently being made possible by an unprecedented variety of datasets generated by our interactions with modern technologies. This area has witnessed a veritable explosion of activity over the last few years, yielding many interesting and useful results. Our aim is to provide an overview of the state of the art in this area of research, merging an extremely heterogeneous array of datasets and models. Social Phenomena: From Data Analysis to Models is divided into two parts. Part I deals with modeling social behavior under normal conditions: How we live, travel, collaborate and interact with each other in our daily lives. Part II deals with societal behavior under exceptional conditions: Protests, armed insurgencies, terrorist attacks, and reactions to infectious diseases. This book offers an overview of one of the most fertile emerging fields bringing together practitioners from scientific communities as diverse as social sciences, p...
Advances in statistical models for data analysis
Minerva, Tommaso; Vichi, Maurizio
2015-01-01
This edited volume focuses on recent research results in classification, multivariate statistics and machine learning and highlights advances in statistical models for data analysis. The volume provides both methodological developments and contributions to a wide range of application areas such as economics, marketing, education, social sciences and environment. The papers in this volume were first presented at the 9th biannual meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, held in September 2013 at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy.
3D face modeling, analysis and recognition
Daoudi, Mohamed; Veltkamp, Remco
2013-01-01
3D Face Modeling, Analysis and Recognition presents methodologies for analyzing shapes of facial surfaces, develops computational tools for analyzing 3D face data, and illustrates them using state-of-the-art applications. The methodologies chosen are based on efficient representations, metrics, comparisons, and classifications of features that are especially relevant in the context of 3D measurements of human faces. These frameworks have a long-term utility in face analysis, taking into account the anticipated improvements in data collection, data storage, processing speeds, and application s
International Space Station Model Correlation Analysis
Laible, Michael R.; Fitzpatrick, Kristin; Hodge, Jennifer; Grygier, Michael
2018-01-01
This paper summarizes the on-orbit structural dynamic data and the related modal analysis, model validation and correlation performed for the International Space Station (ISS) configuration ISS Stage ULF7, 2015 Dedicated Thruster Firing (DTF). The objective of this analysis is to validate and correlate the analytical models used to calculate the ISS internal dynamic loads and compare the 2015 DTF with previous tests. During the ISS configurations under consideration, on-orbit dynamic measurements were collected using the three main ISS instrumentation systems; Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS) and the Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS). The measurements were recorded during several nominal on-orbit DTF tests on August 18, 2015. Experimental modal analyses were performed on the measured data to extract modal parameters including frequency, damping, and mode shape information. Correlation and comparisons between test and analytical frequencies and mode shapes were performed to assess the accuracy of the analytical models for the configurations under consideration. These mode shapes were also compared to earlier tests. Based on the frequency comparisons, the accuracy of the mathematical models is assessed and model refinement recommendations are given. In particular, results of the first fundamental mode will be discussed, nonlinear results will be shown, and accelerometer placement will be assessed.
Cryogenic Fuel Tank Draining Analysis Model
Greer, Donald
1999-01-01
One of the technological challenges in designing advanced hypersonic aircraft and the next generation of spacecraft is developing reusable flight-weight cryogenic fuel tanks. As an aid in the design and analysis of these cryogenic tanks, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has been developed specifically for the analysis of flow in a cryogenic fuel tank. This model employs the full set of Navier-Stokes equations, except that viscous dissipation is neglected in the energy equation. An explicit finite difference technique in two-dimensional generalized coordinates, approximated to second-order accuracy in both space and time is used. The stiffness resulting from the low Mach number is resolved by using artificial compressibility. The model simulates the transient, two-dimensional draining of a fuel tank cross section. To calculate the slosh wave dynamics the interface between the ullage gas and liquid fuel is modeled as a free surface. Then, experimental data for free convection inside a horizontal cylinder are compared with model results. Finally, cryogenic tank draining calculations are performed with three different wall heat fluxes to demonstrate the effect of wall heat flux on the internal tank flow field.
Model Based Analysis of Insider Threats
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Taolue; Han, Tingting; Kammueller, Florian
2016-01-01
In order to detect malicious insider attacks it is important to model and analyse infrastructures and policies of organisations and the insiders acting within them. We extend formal approaches that allow modelling such scenarios by quantitative aspects to enable a precise analysis of security...... designs. Our framework enables evaluating the risks of an insider attack to happen quantitatively. The framework first identifies an insider's intention to perform an inside attack, using Bayesian networks, and in a second phase computes the probability of success for an inside attack by this actor, using...
Urban drainage models - making uncertainty analysis simple
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Deletic, Ana
2012-01-01
in each measured/observed datapoint; an issue which is commonly overlook in the uncertainty analysis of urban drainage models. This comparison allows the user to intuitively estimate the optimum number of simulations required to conduct uncertainty analyses. The output of the method includes parameter......There is increasing awareness about uncertainties in modelling of urban drainage systems and, as such, many new methods for uncertainty analyses have been developed. Despite this, all available methods have limitations which restrict their widespread application among practitioners. Here...
MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anass BAYAGA
2010-07-01
Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.
Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller Andersen, Frits; Alberg Østergaard, Poul
2015-01-01
This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out b...... by 11 university and industry partners has improved the basis for decision-making within energy planning and energy scenario making by providing new and improved tools and methods for energy systems analyses.......This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out...
Exploiting partial knowledge for efficient model analysis
Macedo, Nuno; Cunha, Alcino; Pessoa, Eduardo José Dias
2017-01-01
The advancement of constraint solvers and model checkers has enabled the effective analysis of high-level formal specification languages. However, these typically handle a specification in an opaque manner, amalgamating all its constraints in a single monolithic verification task, which often proves to be a performance bottleneck. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a solving strategy that exploits user-provided partial knowledge, namely by assigning symbolic bounds to the problem’s ...
The Roy Adaptation Model and Content Analysis
Fawcett, Jacqueline
2006-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to explain how the Roy Adaptation Model can be used to guide a combined qualitative and quantitative content analysis of responses to open-ended interviews questions. Responses can be categorized as adaptive or ineffective within the physiological, self-concept, role function, and interdependence modes of adaptation and then tallied to yield an adaptation score. El objetivo del presente estudio consiste en explicar de qué manera se puede utilizar el Modelo de A...
Micromechatronics modeling, analysis, and design with Matlab
Giurgiutiu, Victor
2009-01-01
Focusing on recent developments in engineering science, enabling hardware, advanced technologies, and software, Micromechatronics: Modeling, Analysis, and Design with MATLAB®, Second Edition provides clear, comprehensive coverage of mechatronic and electromechanical systems. It applies cornerstone fundamentals to the design of electromechanical systems, covers emerging software and hardware, introduces the rigorous theory, examines the design of high-performance systems, and helps develop problem-solving skills. Along with more streamlined material, this edition adds many new sections to exist
3D space analysis of dental models
Chuah, Joon H.; Ong, Sim Heng; Kondo, Toshiaki; Foong, Kelvin W. C.; Yong, Than F.
2001-05-01
Space analysis is an important procedure by orthodontists to determine the amount of space available and required for teeth alignment during treatment planning. Traditional manual methods of space analysis are tedious and often inaccurate. Computer-based space analysis methods that work on 2D images have been reported. However, as the space problems in the dental arch exist in all three planes of space, a full 3D analysis of the problems is necessary. This paper describes a visualization and measurement system that analyses 3D images of dental plaster models. Algorithms were developed to determine dental arches. The system is able to record the depths of the Curve of Spee, and quantify space liabilities arising from a non-planar Curve of Spee, malalignment and overjet. Furthermore, the difference between total arch space available and the space required to arrange the teeth in ideal occlusion can be accurately computed. The system for 3D space analysis of the dental arch is an accurate, comprehensive, rapid and repeatable method of space analysis to facilitate proper orthodontic diagnosis and treatment planning.
Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.
1977-01-01
Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr
Session 6: Dynamic Modeling and Systems Analysis
Csank, Jeffrey; Chapman, Jeffryes; May, Ryan
2013-01-01
These presentations cover some of the ongoing work in dynamic modeling and dynamic systems analysis. The first presentation discusses dynamic systems analysis and how to integrate dynamic performance information into the systems analysis. The ability to evaluate the dynamic performance of an engine design may allow tradeoffs between the dynamic performance and operability of a design resulting in a more efficient engine design. The second presentation discusses the Toolbox for Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS). T-MATS is a Simulation system with a library containing the basic building blocks that can be used to create dynamic Thermodynamic Systems. Some of the key features include Turbo machinery components, such as turbines, compressors, etc., and basic control system blocks. T-MAT is written in the Matlab-Simulink environment and is open source software. The third presentation focuses on getting additional performance from the engine by allowing the limit regulators only to be active when a limit is danger of being violated. Typical aircraft engine control architecture is based on MINMAX scheme, which is designed to keep engine operating within prescribed mechanical/operational safety limits. Using a conditionally active min-max limit regulator scheme, additional performance can be gained by disabling non-relevant limit regulators
Modeling and analysis of advanced binary cycles
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gawlik, K.
1997-12-31
A computer model (Cycle Analysis Simulation Tool, CAST) and a methodology have been developed to perform value analysis for small, low- to moderate-temperature binary geothermal power plants. The value analysis method allows for incremental changes in the levelized electricity cost (LEC) to be determined between a baseline plant and a modified plant. Thermodynamic cycle analyses and component sizing are carried out in the model followed by economic analysis which provides LEC results. The emphasis of the present work is on evaluating the effect of mixed working fluids instead of pure fluids on the LEC of a geothermal binary plant that uses a simple Organic Rankine Cycle. Four resources were studied spanning the range of 265{degrees}F to 375{degrees}F. A variety of isobutane and propane based mixtures, in addition to pure fluids, were used as working fluids. This study shows that the use of propane mixtures at a 265{degrees}F resource can reduce the LEC by 24% when compared to a base case value that utilizes commercial isobutane as its working fluid. The cost savings drop to 6% for a 375{degrees}F resource, where an isobutane mixture is favored. Supercritical cycles were found to have the lowest cost at all resources.
Corneal modeling for analysis of photorefractive keratectomy
Della Vecchia, Michael A.; Lamkin-Kennard, Kathleen
1997-05-01
Procedurally, excimer photorefractive keratectomy is based on the refractive correction of composite spherical and cylindrical ophthalmic errors of the entire eye. These refractive errors are inputted for correction at the corneal plane and for the properly controlled duration and location of laser energy. Topography is usually taken to correspondingly monitor spherical and cylindrical corneorefractive errors. While a corneal topographer provides surface morphologic information, the keratorefractive photoablation is based on the patient's spherical and cylindrical spectacle correction. Topography is at present not directly part of the procedural deterministic parameters. Examination of how corneal curvature at each of the keratometric reference loci affect the shape of the resultant corneal photoablated surface may enhance the accuracy of the desired correction. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to utilize corneal topography for construction of models depicting pre- and post-operative keratomorphology for analysis of photorefractive keratectomy. Multiple types of models were developed then recreated in optical design software for examination of focal lengths and other optical characteristics. The corneal models were developed using data extracted from the TMS I corneal modeling system (Computed Anatomy, New York, NY). The TMS I does not allow for manipulation of data or differentiation of pre- and post-operative surfaces within its platform, thus models needed to be created for analysis. The data were imported into Matlab where 3D models, surface meshes, and contour plots were created. The data used to generate the models were pre- and post-operative curvatures, heights from the corneal apes, and x-y positions at 6400 locations on the corneal surface. Outlying non-contributory points were eliminated through statistical operations. Pre- and post- operative models were analyzed to obtain the resultant changes in the corneal surfaces during PRK
Model reduction using a posteriori analysis
Whiteley, Jonathan P.
2010-01-01
Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.
Model reduction using a posteriori analysis
Whiteley, Jonathan P.
2010-05-01
Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.
Human eyeball model reconstruction and quantitative analysis.
Xing, Qi; Wei, Qi
2014-01-01
Determining shape of the eyeball is important to diagnose eyeball disease like myopia. In this paper, we present an automatic approach to precisely reconstruct three dimensional geometric shape of eyeball from MR Images. The model development pipeline involved image segmentation, registration, B-Spline surface fitting and subdivision surface fitting, neither of which required manual interaction. From the high resolution resultant models, geometric characteristics of the eyeball can be accurately quantified and analyzed. In addition to the eight metrics commonly used by existing studies, we proposed two novel metrics, Gaussian Curvature Analysis and Sphere Distance Deviation, to quantify the cornea shape and the whole eyeball surface respectively. The experiment results showed that the reconstructed eyeball models accurately represent the complex morphology of the eye. The ten metrics parameterize the eyeball among different subjects, which can potentially be used for eye disease diagnosis.
Davies, Patrick Laurie
2014-01-01
Introduction IntroductionApproximate Models Notation Two Modes of Statistical AnalysisTowards One Mode of Analysis Approximation, Randomness, Chaos, Determinism ApproximationA Concept of Approximation Approximation Approximating a Data Set by a Model Approximation Regions Functionals and EquivarianceRegularization and Optimality Metrics and DiscrepanciesStrong and Weak Topologies On Being (almost) Honest Simulations and Tables Degree of Approximation and p-values ScalesStability of Analysis The Choice of En(α, P) Independence Procedures, Approximation and VaguenessDiscrete Models The Empirical Density Metrics and Discrepancies The Total Variation Metric The Kullback-Leibler and Chi-Squared Discrepancies The Po(λ) ModelThe b(k, p) and nb(k, p) Models The Flying Bomb Data The Student Study Times Data OutliersOutliers, Data Analysis and Models Breakdown Points and Equivariance Identifying Outliers and Breakdown Outliers in Multivariate Data Outliers in Linear Regression Outliers in Structured Data The Location...
Modeling Analysis For Grout Hopper Waste Tank
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, S.
2012-01-01
The Saltstone facility at Savannah River Site (SRS) has a grout hopper tank to provide agitator stirring of the Saltstone feed materials. The tank has about 300 gallon capacity to provide a larger working volume for the grout nuclear waste slurry to be held in case of a process upset, and it is equipped with a mechanical agitator, which is intended to keep the grout in motion and agitated so that it won't start to set up. The primary objective of the work was to evaluate the flow performance for mechanical agitators to prevent vortex pull-through for an adequate stirring of the feed materials and to estimate an agitator speed which provides acceptable flow performance with a 45 o pitched four-blade agitator. In addition, the power consumption required for the agitator operation was estimated. The modeling calculations were performed by taking two steps of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling approach. As a first step, a simple single-stage agitator model with 45 o pitched propeller blades was developed for the initial scoping analysis of the flow pattern behaviors for a range of different operating conditions. Based on the initial phase-1 results, the phase-2 model with a two-stage agitator was developed for the final performance evaluations. A series of sensitivity calculations for different designs of agitators and operating conditions have been performed to investigate the impact of key parameters on the grout hydraulic performance in a 300-gallon hopper tank. For the analysis, viscous shear was modeled by using the Bingham plastic approximation. Steady state analyses with a two-equation turbulence model were performed. All analyses were based on three-dimensional results. Recommended operational guidance was developed by using the basic concept that local shear rate profiles and flow patterns can be used as a measure of hydraulic performance and spatial stirring. Flow patterns were estimated by a Lagrangian integration technique along the flow paths
Modeling and Hazard Analysis Using STPA
Ishimatsu, Takuto; Leveson, Nancy; Thomas, John; Katahira, Masa; Miyamoto, Yuko; Nakao, Haruka
2010-09-01
A joint research project between MIT and JAXA/JAMSS is investigating the application of a new hazard analysis to the system and software in the HTV. Traditional hazard analysis focuses on component failures but software does not fail in this way. Software most often contributes to accidents by commanding the spacecraft into an unsafe state(e.g., turning off the descent engines prematurely) or by not issuing required commands. That makes the standard hazard analysis techniques of limited usefulness on software-intensive systems, which describes most spacecraft built today. STPA is a new hazard analysis technique based on systems theory rather than reliability theory. It treats safety as a control problem rather than a failure problem. The goal of STPA, which is to create a set of scenarios that can lead to a hazard, is the same as FTA but STPA includes a broader set of potential scenarios including those in which no failures occur but the problems arise due to unsafe and unintended interactions among the system components. STPA also provides more guidance to the analysts that traditional fault tree analysis. Functional control diagrams are used to guide the analysis. In addition, JAXA uses a model-based system engineering development environment(created originally by Leveson and called SpecTRM) which also assists in the hazard analysis. One of the advantages of STPA is that it can be applied early in the system engineering and development process in a safety-driven design process where hazard analysis drives the design decisions rather than waiting until reviews identify problems that are then costly or difficult to fix. It can also be applied in an after-the-fact analysis and hazard assessment, which is what we did in this case study. This paper describes the experimental application of STPA to the JAXA HTV in order to determine the feasibility and usefulness of the new hazard analysis technique. Because the HTV was originally developed using fault tree analysis
Automating risk analysis of software design models.
Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P
2014-01-01
The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.
Gentrification and models for real estate analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gianfranco Brusa
2013-08-01
Full Text Available This research propose a deep analysis of Milanese real estate market, based on data supplied by three real estate organizations; gentrification appears in some neighborhoods, such as Tortona, Porta Genova, Bovisa, Isola Garibaldi: the latest is the subject of the final analysis, by surveying of physical and social state of the area. The survey takes place in two periods (2003 and 2009 to compare the evolution of gentrification. The results of surveys has been employed in a simulation by multi-agent system model, to foresee long term evolution of the phenomenon. These neighborhood micro-indicators allow to put in evidence actual trends, conditioning a local real estate market, which can translate themselves in phenomena such as gentrification. In present analysis, the employ of cellular automata models applied to a neighborhood in Milan (Isola Garibaldi produced the dynamic simulation of gentrification trend during a very long time: the cyclical phenomenon (one loop holds a period of twenty – thirty years appears sometimes during a theoretical time of 100 – 120 – 150 years. Simulation of long period scenarios by multi-agent systems and cellular automata provides estimator with powerful tool, without limits in implementing it, able to support him in appraisal judge. It stands also to reason that such a tool can sustain urban planning and related evaluation processes.
Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaxia Zhao
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.
Dynamical system analysis of interacting models
Carneiro, S.; Borges, H. A.
2018-01-01
We perform a dynamical system analysis of a cosmological model with linear dependence between the vacuum density and the Hubble parameter, with constant-rate creation of dark matter. We show that the de Sitter spacetime is an asymptotically stable critical point, future limit of any expanding solution. Our analysis also shows that the Minkowski spacetime is an unstable critical point, which eventually collapses to a singularity. In this way, such a prescription for the vacuum decay not only predicts the correct future de Sitter limit, but also forbids the existence of a stable Minkowski universe. We also study the effect of matter creation on the growth of structures and their peculiar velocities, showing that it is inside the current errors of redshift space distortions observations.
Analysis of pilgrim dark energy models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sharif, M.; Jawad, Abdul [University of the Punjab, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan)
2013-04-15
The proposal of pilgrim dark energy is based on the idea that phantom dark energy possesses enough resistive force to preclude black hole formation. We work on this proposal by choosing an interacting framework with cold dark matter and three cutoffs such as Hubble as well as event horizon and conformal age of the universe. We present a graphical analysis and focus our study on the pilgrim dark energy as well as interacting parameters. It is found that these parameters play an effective role on the equation of state parameter for exploring the phantom region of the universe. We also make the analysis of {omega}-{omega}' and point out freezing region in the {omega}-{omega}' plane. Finally, it turns out that the {Lambda}CDM is achieved in the statefinders plane for all models. (orig.)
Model reduction by weighted Component Cost Analysis
Kim, Jae H.; Skelton, Robert E.
1990-01-01
Component Cost Analysis considers any given system driven by a white noise process as an interconnection of different components, and assigns a metric called 'component cost' to each component. These component costs measure the contribution of each component to a predefined quadratic cost function. A reduced-order model of the given system may be obtained by deleting those components that have the smallest component costs. The theory of Component Cost Analysis is extended to include finite-bandwidth colored noises. The results also apply when actuators have dynamics of their own. Closed-form analytical expressions of component costs are also derived for a mechanical system described by its modal data. This is very useful to compute the modal costs of very high order systems. A numerical example for MINIMAST system is presented.
Plasma brake model for preliminary mission analysis
Orsini, Leonardo; Niccolai, Lorenzo; Mengali, Giovanni; Quarta, Alessandro A.
2018-03-01
Plasma brake is an innovative propellantless propulsion system concept that exploits the Coulomb collisions between a charged tether and the ions in the surrounding environment (typically, the ionosphere) to generate an electrostatic force orthogonal to the tether direction. Previous studies on the plasma brake effect have emphasized the existence of a number of different parameters necessary to obtain an accurate description of the propulsive acceleration from a physical viewpoint. The aim of this work is to discuss an analytical model capable of estimating, with the accuracy required by a preliminary mission analysis, the performance of a spacecraft equipped with a plasma brake in a (near-circular) low Earth orbit. The simplified mathematical model is first validated through numerical simulations, and is then used to evaluate the plasma brake performance in some typical mission scenarios, in order to quantify the influence of the system parameters on the mission performance index.
Coletta, Vincent P.; Evans, Jonathan
2008-10-01
We analyze the motion of a gravity powered model race car on a downhill track of variable slope. Using a simple algebraic function to approximate the height of the track as a function of the distance along the track, and taking account of the rotational energy of the wheels, rolling friction, and air resistance, we obtain analytic expressions for the velocity and time of the car as functions of the distance traveled along the track. Photogates are used to measure the time at selected points along the track, and the measured values are in excellent agreement with the values predicted from theory. The design and analysis of model race cars provides a good application of principles of mechanics and suggests interesting projects for classes in introductory and intermediate mechanics.
Stability Analysis of the Embankment Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G.S. Gopalakrishna
2009-01-01
Full Text Available In analysis of embankment model affected by dynamic force, employment of shaking table is a scientific way in assessment of earthquake behavior. This work focused on saturated loose sandy foundation and enbankment. The results generated through the pore pressure sensors indicated pore water pressure playing main role in creation of liquefaction and stability of the system, and also revealed deformation, settlement, liquefaction intensity and time stability of system in direct correlation with the strength and characteristics of soil. One of the economical methods in stabilization of soil foundation is improvement of some part soil foundation.
Non standard analysis, polymer models, quantum fields
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Albeverio, S.
1984-01-01
We give an elementary introduction to non standard analysis and its applications to the theory of stochastic processes. This is based on a joint book with J.E. Fenstad, R. Hoeegh-Krohn and T. Lindstroeem. In particular we give a discussion of an hyperfinite theory of Dirichlet forms with applications to the study of the Hamiltonian for a quantum mechanical particle in the potential created by a polymer. We also discuss new results on the existence of attractive polymer measures in dimension d 1 2 phi 2 2 )sub(d)-model of interacting quantum fields. (orig.)
Constraints based analysis of extended cybernetic models.
Mandli, Aravinda R; Venkatesh, Kareenhalli V; Modak, Jayant M
2015-11-01
The cybernetic modeling framework provides an interesting approach to model the regulatory phenomena occurring in microorganisms. In the present work, we adopt a constraints based approach to analyze the nonlinear behavior of the extended equations of the cybernetic model. We first show that the cybernetic model exhibits linear growth behavior under the constraint of no resource allocation for the induction of the key enzyme. We then quantify the maximum achievable specific growth rate of microorganisms on mixtures of substitutable substrates under various kinds of regulation and show its use in gaining an understanding of the regulatory strategies of microorganisms. Finally, we show that Saccharomyces cerevisiae exhibits suboptimal dynamic growth with a long diauxic lag phase when growing on a mixture of glucose and galactose and discuss on its potential to achieve optimal growth with a significantly reduced diauxic lag period. The analysis carried out in the present study illustrates the utility of adopting a constraints based approach to understand the dynamic growth strategies of microorganisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Fluctuation microscopy analysis of amorphous silicon models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gibson, J.M., E-mail: jmgibson@fsu.edu [Northeastern University, Department of Physics, Boston MA 02115 (United States); FAMU/FSU Joint College of Engineering, 225 Pottsdamer Street, Tallahassee, FL 32310 (United States); Treacy, M.M.J. [Arizona State University, Department of Physics, Tempe AZ 85287 (United States)
2017-05-15
Highlights: • Studied competing computer models for amorphous silicon and simulated fluctuation microscopy data. • Show that only paracrystalline/random network composite can fit published data. • Specifically show that pure random network or random network with void models do not fit available data. • Identify a new means to measure volume fraction of ordered material. • Identify unreported limitations of the Debye model for simulating fluctuation microscopy data. - Abstract: Using computer-generated models we discuss the use of fluctuation electron microscopy (FEM) to identify the structure of amorphous silicon. We show that a combination of variable resolution FEM to measure the correlation length, with correlograph analysis to obtain the structural motif, can pin down structural correlations. We introduce the method of correlograph variance as a promising means of independently measuring the volume fraction of a paracrystalline composite. From comparisons with published data, we affirm that only a composite material of paracrystalline and continuous random network that is substantially paracrystalline could explain the existing experimental data, and point the way to more precise measurements on amorphous semiconductors. The results are of general interest for other classes of disordered materials.
Fluctuation microscopy analysis of amorphous silicon models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gibson, J.M.; Treacy, M.M.J.
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Studied competing computer models for amorphous silicon and simulated fluctuation microscopy data. • Show that only paracrystalline/random network composite can fit published data. • Specifically show that pure random network or random network with void models do not fit available data. • Identify a new means to measure volume fraction of ordered material. • Identify unreported limitations of the Debye model for simulating fluctuation microscopy data. - Abstract: Using computer-generated models we discuss the use of fluctuation electron microscopy (FEM) to identify the structure of amorphous silicon. We show that a combination of variable resolution FEM to measure the correlation length, with correlograph analysis to obtain the structural motif, can pin down structural correlations. We introduce the method of correlograph variance as a promising means of independently measuring the volume fraction of a paracrystalline composite. From comparisons with published data, we affirm that only a composite material of paracrystalline and continuous random network that is substantially paracrystalline could explain the existing experimental data, and point the way to more precise measurements on amorphous semiconductors. The results are of general interest for other classes of disordered materials.
Modeling and analysis of a resonant nanosystem
Calvert, Scott L.
The majority of investigations into nanoelectromechanical resonators focus on a single area of the resonator's function. This focus varies from the development of a model for a beam's vibration, to the modeling of electrostatic forces, to a qualitative explanation of experimentally-obtained currents. Despite these efforts, there remains a gap between these works, and the level of sophistication needed to truly design nanoresonant systems for efficient commercial use. Towards this end, a comprehensive system model for both a nanobeam resonator and its related experimental setup is proposed. Furthermore, a simulation arrangement is suggested as a method for facilitating the study of the system-level behavior of these devices in a variety of cases that could not be easily obtained experimentally or analytically. The dynamics driving the nanoresonator's motion, as well as the electrical interactions influencing the forcing and output of the system, are modeled, experimentally validated, and studied. The model seeks to develop both a simple circuit representation of the nanoresonator, and to create a mathematical system that can be used to predict and interpret the observed behavior. Due to the assumptions used to simplify the model to a point of reasonable comprehension, the model is most accurate for small beam deflections near the first eigenmode of the beam. The process and results of an experimental investigation are documented, and compared with a circuit simulation modeling the full test system. The comparison qualitatively proves the functionality of the model, while a numerical analysis serves to validate the functionality and setup of the circuit simulation. The use of the simulation enables a much broader investigation of both the electrical behavior and the physical device's dynamics. It is used to complement an assessment of the tuning behavior of the system's linear natural frequency by demonstrating the tuning behavior of the full nonlinear response. The
Modelling and analysis of global coal markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trueby, Johannes
2013-01-01
The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in
Modelling and analysis of global coal markets
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Trueby, Johannes
2013-01-17
The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in
On contact modelling in isogeometric analysis
Cardoso, R. P. R.; Adetoro, O. B.
2017-11-01
IsoGeometric Analysis (IGA) has proved to be a reliable numerical tool for the simulation of structural behaviour and fluid mechanics. The main reasons for this popularity are essentially due to: (i) the possibility of using higher order polynomials for the basis functions; (ii) the high convergence rates possible to achieve; (iii) the possibility to operate directly on CAD geometry without the need to resort to a mesh of elements. The major drawback of IGA is the non-interpolatory characteristic of the basis functions, which adds a difficulty in handling essential boundary conditions and makes it particularly challenging for contact analysis. In this work, the IGA is expanded to include frictionless contact procedures for sheet metal forming analyses. Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines (NURBS) are going to be used for the modelling of rigid tools as well as for the modelling of the deformable blank sheet. The contact methods developed are based on a two-step contact search scheme, where during the first step a global search algorithm is used for the allocation of contact knots into potential contact faces and a second (local) contact search scheme where point inversion techniques are used for the calculation of the contact penetration gap. For completeness, elastoplastic procedures are also included for a proper description of the entire IGA of sheet metal forming processes.
Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boring, R. L.
2006-01-01
This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)
ANALYSIS MODEL FOR RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
BURJA CAMELIA
2013-02-01
Full Text Available At the microeconomic level, the appreciation of the capitals’ profitability is a very complex action which is ofinterest for stakeholders. This study has as main purpose to extend the traditional analysis model for the capitals’profitability, based on the ratio “Return on capital employed”. In line with it the objectives of this work aim theidentification of factors that exert an influence on the capital’s profitability utilized by a company and the measurementof their contribution in the manifestation of the phenomenon. The proposed analysis model is validated on the use caseof a representative company from the agricultural sector. The results obtained reveal that in a company there are somefactors which can act positively on the capitals’ profitability: capital turnover, sales efficiency, increase the share ofsales in the total revenues, improvement of the expenses’ efficiency. The findings are useful both for the decisionmakingfactors in substantiating the economic strategies and for the capital owners who are interested in efficiency oftheir investments.
Data analysis and source modelling for LISA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shang, Yu
2014-01-01
The gravitational waves are one of the most important predictions in general relativity. Besides of the directly proof of the existence of GWs, there are already several ground based detectors (such as LIGO, GEO, etc) and the planed future space mission (such as: LISA) which are aim to detect the GWs directly. GW contain a large amount of information of its source, extracting these information can help us dig out the physical property of the source, even open a new window for understanding the Universe. Hence, GW data analysis will be a challenging task in seeking the GWs. In this thesis, I present two works about the data analysis for LISA. In the first work, we introduce an extended multimodal genetic algorithm which utilizes the properties of the signal and the detector response function to analyze the data from the third round of mock LISA data challenge. We have found all five sources present in the data and recovered the coalescence time, chirp mass, mass ratio and sky location with reasonable accuracy. As for the orbital angular momentum and two spins of the Black Holes, we have found a large number of widely separated modes in the parameter space with similar maximum likelihood values. The performance of this method is comparable, if not better, to already existing algorithms. In the second work, we introduce an new phenomenological waveform model for the extreme mass ratio inspiral system. This waveform consists of a set of harmonics with constant amplitude and slowly evolving phase which we decompose in a Taylor series. We use these phenomenological templates to detect the signal in the simulated data, and then, assuming a particular EMRI model, estimate the physical parameters of the binary with high precision. The results show that our phenomenological waveform is very feasible in the data analysis of EMRI signal.
Sensitivity analysis of Smith's AMRV model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ho, Chih-Hsiang
1995-01-01
Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameter p is elicited on the prior distribution, π (p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π (p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruption p, win eventually be averaged out by taking the expectation over π (p). We use the following priors in the analysis: priors chosen for mathematical convenience: Beta (r, s) for (r, s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1), (2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1); and three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Estimated values of hazard based on the priors chosen for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8,2), yields the highest hazard (= 2.97 X 10 -2 ). The minimum hazard is produced by the open-quotes three-expert priorclose quotes (i.e., values of p are equally likely at 10 -3 10 -2 , and 10 -1 ). The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 x which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, open-quotes hazardclose quotes, is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years
Growth models and analysis of development
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mathur, G
1979-10-01
This paper deals with remnants of neoclassical elements in Keynesian and post-Keynesian thought, and attempts to demonstrate that the elimination of these elements from our modes of thinking would not impoverish economic analysis as a means of solving real problems. In the Keynesian analysis the causation from investment to savings is exhibited in terms of income determination. When put in terms of a capital-theory model, the vector of savings is represented in two ways: real savings and counterpart real savings. The former coincides with the investment vector and the latter with the vector of consumption goods foregone for diverting resources towards equipment making. Thus the Keynesian causation in capital theory terms makes the concept of national savings as an independent variable redudant. The Robinsonian causation in a golden age with full employment and its reversal of direction in a steady state with non-employment are then considered. But in each of these, variables like rate of savings and output/capital ratio are found to be dormant variables. They are termed as null variables which, being of no account in both full-employment and unemployment situations, could, without loss, be deleted from the repertory of analytical tools. The Harrod formula of warranted rate of growth, when put in causal form, thus becomes a redundant portion of economics of growth. The real determinants of the growth rate and real wage rate on which the analysis of growth or of development should be based, are also depicted.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Piskator, Gene
1998-01-01
...) model and to develop a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) modeling strategy. First, the FAARR model was verified using a simulation of a known production function and validated using sensitivity analysis and ex-post forecasts...
A catalog of automated analysis methods for enterprise models.
Florez, Hector; Sánchez, Mario; Villalobos, Jorge
2016-01-01
Enterprise models are created for documenting and communicating the structure and state of Business and Information Technologies elements of an enterprise. After models are completed, they are mainly used to support analysis. Model analysis is an activity typically based on human skills and due to the size and complexity of the models, this process can be complicated and omissions or miscalculations are very likely. This situation has fostered the research of automated analysis methods, for supporting analysts in enterprise analysis processes. By reviewing the literature, we found several analysis methods; nevertheless, they are based on specific situations and different metamodels; then, some analysis methods might not be applicable to all enterprise models. This paper presents the work of compilation (literature review), classification, structuring, and characterization of automated analysis methods for enterprise models, expressing them in a standardized modeling language. In addition, we have implemented the analysis methods in our modeling tool.
Visual behaviour analysis and driver cognitive model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baujon, J.; Basset, M.; Gissinger, G.L. [Mulhouse Univ., (France). MIPS/MIAM Lab.
2001-07-01
Recent studies on driver behaviour have shown that perception - mainly visual but also proprioceptive perception - plays a key role in the ''driver-vehicle-road'' system and so considerably affects the driver's decision making. Within the framework of the behaviour analysis and studies low-cost system (BASIL), this paper presents a correlative, qualitative and quantitative study, comparing the information given by visual perception and by the trajectory followed. This information will help to obtain a cognitive model of the Rasmussen type according to different driver classes. Many experiments in real driving situations have been carried out for different driver classes and for a given trajectory profile, using a test vehicle and innovative, specially designed, real-time tools, such as the vision system or the positioning module. (orig.)
PCA: Principal Component Analysis for spectra modeling
Hurley, Peter D.; Oliver, Seb; Farrah, Duncan; Wang, Lingyu; Efstathiou, Andreas
2012-07-01
The mid-infrared spectra of ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) contain a variety of spectral features that can be used as diagnostics to characterize the spectra. However, such diagnostics are biased by our prior prejudices on the origin of the features. Moreover, by using only part of the spectrum they do not utilize the full information content of the spectra. Blind statistical techniques such as principal component analysis (PCA) consider the whole spectrum, find correlated features and separate them out into distinct components. This code, written in IDL, classifies principal components of IRS spectra to define a new classification scheme using 5D Gaussian mixtures modelling. The five PCs and average spectra for the four classifications to classify objects are made available with the code.
Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems
Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.
1992-01-01
The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.
Early Start DENVER Model: A Meta - analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jane P. Canoy
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Each child with Autism Spectrum Disorder has different symptoms, skills and types of impairment or disorder with other children. This is why the word “spectrum” is included in this disorder. Eapen, Crncec, and Walter, 2013 claimed that there was an emerging evidence that early interventions gives the greatest capacity of child’s development during their first years of life as “brain plasticity” are high during this period. With this, the only intervention program model for children as young as 18 months that has been validated in a randomized clinical trial is “Early Start Denver Model” (ESDM. This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of the outcome of “Early Start Denver Model” (ESDM towards young children with Autism Spectrum Disorders. This study made use of meta-analysis method. In this study, the researcher utilized studies related to “Early Start Denver Model (ESDM” which is published in a refereed journal which are all available online. There were five studies included which totals 149 children exposed to ESDM. To examine the “pooled effects” of ESDM in a variety of outcomes, a meta-analytic procedure was performed after the extraction of data of the concrete outcomes. Comprehensive Meta Analysis Version 3.3.070 was used to analyze the data. The effectiveness of the outcome of “Early Start Denver Model” towards young children with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD highly depends on the intensity of intervention and the younger child age. This study would provide the basis in effectively implementing an early intervention to children with autism such as the “Early Start Denver Model” (ESDM that would show great outcome effects to those children that has “Autism Spectrum Disorder”.
Modelling structural systems for transient response analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Melosh, R.J.
1975-01-01
This paper introduces and reports success of a direct means of determining the time periods in which a structural system behaves as a linear system. Numerical results are based on post fracture transient analyses of simplified nuclear piping systems. Knowledge of the linear response ranges will lead to improved analysis-test correlation and more efficient analyses. It permits direct use of data from physical tests in analysis and simplication of the analytical model and interpretation of its behavior. The paper presents a procedure for deducing linearity based on transient responses. Given the forcing functions and responses of discrete points of the system at various times, the process produces evidence of linearity and quantifies an adequate set of equations of motion. Results of use of the process with linear and nonlinear analyses of piping systems with damping illustrate its success. Results cover the application to data from mathematical system responses. The process is successfull with mathematical models. In loading ranges in which all modes are excited, eight digit accuracy of predictions are obtained from the equations of motion deduced. Small changes (less than 0.01%) in the norm of the transfer matrices are produced by manipulation errors for linear systems yielding evidence that nonlinearity is easily distinguished. Significant changes (greater than five %) are coincident with relatively large norms of the equilibrium correction vector in nonlinear analyses. The paper shows that deducing linearity and, when admissible, quantifying linear equations of motion from transient response data for piping systems can be achieved with accuracy comparable to that of response data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Wang, Weile [ORNL; Law, Beverly E. [Oregon State University; Nemani, Ramakrishna R [NASA Ames Research Center
2009-01-01
The increasing complexity of ecosystem models represents a major difficulty in tuning model parameters and analyzing simulated results. To address this problem, this study develops a hierarchical scheme that simplifies the Biome-BGC model into three functionally cascaded tiers and analyzes them sequentially. The first-tier model focuses on leaf-level ecophysiological processes; it simulates evapotranspiration and photosynthesis with prescribed leaf area index (LAI). The restriction on LAI is then lifted in the following two model tiers, which analyze how carbon and nitrogen is cycled at the whole-plant level (the second tier) and in all litter/soil pools (the third tier) to dynamically support the prescribed canopy. In particular, this study analyzes the steady state of these two model tiers by a set of equilibrium equations that are derived from Biome-BGC algorithms and are based on the principle of mass balance. Instead of spinning-up the model for thousands of climate years, these equations are able to estimate carbon/nitrogen stocks and fluxes of the target (steady-state) ecosystem directly from the results obtained by the first-tier model. The model hierarchy is examined with model experiments at four AmeriFlux sites. The results indicate that the proposed scheme can effectively calibrate Biome-BGC to simulate observed fluxes of evapotranspiration and photosynthesis; and the carbon/nitrogen stocks estimated by the equilibrium analysis approach are highly consistent with the results of model simulations. Therefore, the scheme developed in this study may serve as a practical guide to calibrate/analyze Biome-BGC; it also provides an efficient way to solve the problem of model spin-up, especially for applications over large regions. The same methodology may help analyze other similar ecosystem models as well.
Development of hydrogen combustion analysis model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lim, Tae Jin; Lee, K. D.; Kim, S. N. [Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, J. S.; Kwon, H. Y. [Seoul National Polytechnic University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Y. B.; Kim, J. S. [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
1997-07-01
The objectives of this project is to construct a credible DB for component reliability by developing methodologies and computer codes for assessing component independent failure and common cause failure probability, incorporating applicability and dependency of the data. In addition to this, the ultimate goal is to systematize all the analysis procedures so as to provide plans for preventing component failures by employing flexible tools for the change of specific plant or data sources. For the first subject, we construct a DB for similarity index and dependence matrix and propose a systematic procedure for data analysis by investigating the similarity and redundancy of the generic data sources. Next, we develop a computer code for this procedure and construct reliability data base for major components. The second subject is focused on developing CCF procedure for assessing the plant specific defense ability, rather than developing another CCF model. We propose a procedure and computer code for estimating CCF event probability by incorporating plant specific defensive measure. 116 refs., 25 tabs., 24 figs. (author)
Talking Cure Models: A Framework of Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christopher Marx
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Psychotherapy is commonly described as a “talking cure,” a treatment method that operates through linguistic action and interaction. The operative specifics of therapeutic language use, however, are insufficiently understood, mainly due to a multitude of disparate approaches that advance different notions of what “talking” means and what “cure” implies in the respective context. Accordingly, a clarification of the basic theoretical structure of “talking cure models,” i.e., models that describe therapeutic processes with a focus on language use, is a desideratum of language-oriented psychotherapy research. Against this background the present paper suggests a theoretical framework of analysis which distinguishes four basic components of “talking cure models”: (1 a foundational theory (which suggests how linguistic activity can affect and transform human experience, (2 an experiential problem state (which defines the problem or pathology of the patient, (3 a curative linguistic activity (which defines linguistic activities that are supposed to effectuate a curative transformation of the experiential problem state, and (4 a change mechanism (which defines the processes and effects involved in such transformations. The purpose of the framework is to establish a terminological foundation that allows for systematically reconstructing basic properties and operative mechanisms of “talking cure models.” To demonstrate the applicability and utility of the framework, five distinct “talking cure models” which spell out the details of curative “talking” processes in terms of (1 catharsis, (2 symbolization, (3 narrative, (4 metaphor, and (5 neurocognitive inhibition are introduced and discussed in terms of the framework components. In summary, we hope that our framework will prove useful for the objective of clarifying the theoretical underpinnings of language-oriented psychotherapy research and help to establish a more
Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Olkiluoto Structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hellae, P.; Vaittinen, T.; Saksa, P.; Nummela, J.
2004-11-01
Posiva Oy is carrying out investigations for the disposal of the spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in SW Finland. The investigations have focused on the central part of the island. The layout design of the entire repository requires characterization of notably larger areas and must rely at least at the current stage on borehole information from a rather sparse network and on the geophysical soundings providing information outside and between the holes. In this work, the structural data according to the current version of the Olkiluoto bedrock model is analyzed. The bedrock model relies much on the borehole data although results of the seismic surveys and, for example, pumping tests are used in determining the orientation and continuation of the structures. Especially in the analysis, questions related to the frequency of structures and size of the structures are discussed. The structures observed in the boreholes are mainly dipping gently to the southeast. About 9 % of the sample length belongs to structures. The proportion is higher in the upper parts of the rock. The number of fracture and crushed zones seems not to depend greatly on the depth, whereas the hydraulic features concentrate on the depth range above -100 m. Below level -300 m, the hydraulic conductivity occurs in connection of fractured zones. Especially the hydraulic features, but also fracture and crushed zones often occur in groups. The frequency of the structure (area of structures per total volume) is estimated to be of the order of 1/100m. The size of the local structures was estimated by calculating the intersection of the zone to the nearest borehole where the zone has not been detected. Stochastic models using the Fracman software by Golder Associates were generated based on the bedrock model data complemented with the magnetic ground survey data. The seismic surveys (from boreholes KR5, KR13, KR14, and KR19) were used as alternative input data. The generated models were tested by
Linking advanced fracture models to structural analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chiesa, Matteo
2001-07-01
Shell structures with defects occur in many situations. The defects are usually introduced during the welding process necessary for joining different parts of the structure. Higher utilization of structural materials leads to a need for accurate numerical tools for reliable prediction of structural response. The direct discretization of the cracked shell structure with solid finite elements in order to perform an integrity assessment of the structure in question leads to large size problems, and makes such analysis infeasible in structural application. In this study a link between local material models and structural analysis is outlined. An ''ad hoc'' element formulation is used in order to connect complex material models to the finite element framework used for structural analysis. An improved elasto-plastic line spring finite element formulation, used in order to take cracks into account, is linked to shell elements which are further linked to beam elements. In this way one obtain a global model of the shell structure that also accounts for local flexibilities and fractures due to defects. An important advantage with such an approach is a direct fracture mechanics assessment e.g. via computed J-integral or CTOD. A recent development in this approach is the notion of two-parameter fracture assessment. This means that the crack tip stress tri-axiality (constraint) is employed in determining the corresponding fracture toughness, giving a much more realistic capacity of cracked structures. The present thesis is organized in six research articles and an introductory chapter that reviews important background literature related to this work. Paper I and II address the performance of shell and line spring finite elements as a cost effective tool for performing the numerical calculation needed to perform a fracture assessment. In Paper II a failure assessment, based on the testing of a constraint-corrected fracture mechanics specimen under tension, is
Modeling and analysis of solar distributed generation
Ortiz Rivera, Eduardo Ivan
Recent changes in the global economy are creating a big impact in our daily life. The price of oil is increasing and the number of reserves are less every day. Also, dramatic demographic changes are impacting the viability of the electric infrastructure and ultimately the economic future of the industry. These are some of the reasons that many countries are looking for alternative energy to produce electric energy. The most common form of green energy in our daily life is solar energy. To convert solar energy into electrical energy is required solar panels, dc-dc converters, power control, sensors, and inverters. In this work, a photovoltaic module, PVM, model using the electrical characteristics provided by the manufacturer data sheet is presented for power system applications. Experimental results from testing are showed, verifying the proposed PVM model. Also in this work, three maximum power point tracker, MPPT, algorithms would be presented to obtain the maximum power from a PVM. The first MPPT algorithm is a method based on the Rolle's and Lagrange's Theorems and can provide at least an approximate answer to a family of transcendental functions that cannot be solved using differential calculus. The second MPPT algorithm is based on the approximation of the proposed PVM model using fractional polynomials where the shape, boundary conditions and performance of the proposed PVM model are satisfied. The third MPPT algorithm is based in the determination of the optimal duty cycle for a dc-dc converter and the previous knowledge of the load or load matching conditions. Also, four algorithms to calculate the effective irradiance level and temperature over a photovoltaic module are presented in this work. The main reasons to develop these algorithms are for monitoring climate conditions, the elimination of temperature and solar irradiance sensors, reductions in cost for a photovoltaic inverter system, and development of new algorithms to be integrated with maximum
Aircraft vulnerability analysis by modeling and simulation
Willers, Cornelius J.; Willers, Maria S.; de Waal, Alta
2014-10-01
Infrared missiles pose a significant threat to civilian and military aviation. ManPADS missiles are especially dangerous in the hands of rogue and undisciplined forces. Yet, not all the launched missiles hit their targets; the miss being either attributable to misuse of the weapon or to missile performance restrictions. This paper analyses some of the factors affecting aircraft vulnerability and demonstrates a structured analysis of the risk and aircraft vulnerability problem. The aircraft-missile engagement is a complex series of events, many of which are only partially understood. Aircraft and missile designers focus on the optimal design and performance of their respective systems, often testing only in a limited set of scenarios. Most missiles react to the contrast intensity, but the variability of the background is rarely considered. Finally, the vulnerability of the aircraft depends jointly on the missile's performance and the doctrine governing the missile's launch. These factors are considered in a holistic investigation. The view direction, altitude, time of day, sun position, latitude/longitude and terrain determine the background against which the aircraft is observed. Especially high gradients in sky radiance occur around the sun and on the horizon. This paper considers uncluttered background scenes (uniform terrain and clear sky) and presents examples of background radiance at all view angles across a sphere around the sensor. A detailed geometrical and spatially distributed radiometric model is used to model the aircraft. This model provides the signature at all possible view angles across the sphere around the aircraft. The signature is determined in absolute terms (no background) and in contrast terms (with background). It is shown that the background significantly affects the contrast signature as observed by the missile sensor. A simplified missile model is constructed by defining the thrust and mass profiles, maximum seeker tracking rate, maximum
Model Based Analysis and Test Generation for Flight Software
Pasareanu, Corina S.; Schumann, Johann M.; Mehlitz, Peter C.; Lowry, Mike R.; Karsai, Gabor; Nine, Harmon; Neema, Sandeep
2009-01-01
We describe a framework for model-based analysis and test case generation in the context of a heterogeneous model-based development paradigm that uses and combines Math- Works and UML 2.0 models and the associated code generation tools. This paradigm poses novel challenges to analysis and test case generation that, to the best of our knowledge, have not been addressed before. The framework is based on a common intermediate representation for different modeling formalisms and leverages and extends model checking and symbolic execution tools for model analysis and test case generation, respectively. We discuss the application of our framework to software models for a NASA flight mission.
Simulation modelling of fynbos ecosystems: Systems analysis and conceptual models
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Kruger, FJ
1985-03-01
Full Text Available -animal interactions. An additional two models, which expand aspects of the FYNBOS model, are described: a model for simulating canopy processes; and a Fire Recovery Simulator. The canopy process model will simulate ecophysiological processes in more detail than FYNBOS...
Analysis of an innovative business model
Picquendaele, Laetitia
2016-01-01
This master thesis will investigate the freemium business model, raising on the questions: “Why is the freemium business model innovative and what are its success factors?” The aim is to analyse this business model by confronting theory and practice. Therefore, the document begins with a description discussion of the freemium business model. The literature review concludes by determining the success factors of the business model innovation and of the freemium model. The theory in this first p...
Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro
2007-10-01
Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.
Likelihood analysis of the minimal AMSB model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bagnaschi, E.; Weiglein, G. [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Borsato, M.; Chobanova, V.; Lucio, M.; Santos, D.M. [Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Sakurai, K. [Institute for Particle Physics Phenomenology, University of Durham, Science Laboratories, Department of Physics, Durham (United Kingdom); University of Warsaw, Faculty of Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Warsaw (Poland); Buchmueller, O.; Citron, M.; Costa, J.C.; Richards, A. [Imperial College, High Energy Physics Group, Blackett Laboratory, London (United Kingdom); Cavanaugh, R. [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, IL (United States); University of Illinois at Chicago, Physics Department, Chicago, IL (United States); De Roeck, A. [Experimental Physics Department, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Antwerp University, Wilrijk (Belgium); Dolan, M.J. [School of Physics, University of Melbourne, ARC Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Terascale, Melbourne (Australia); Ellis, J.R. [King' s College London, Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, London (United Kingdom); CERN, Theoretical Physics Department, Geneva (Switzerland); Flaecher, H. [University of Bristol, H.H. Wills Physics Laboratory, Bristol (United Kingdom); Heinemeyer, S. [Campus of International Excellence UAM+CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fisica Teorica UAM-CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Cantabria (Spain); Isidori, G. [Physik-Institut, Universitaet Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Luo, F. [Kavli IPMU (WPI), UTIAS, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba (Japan); Olive, K.A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, Minneapolis, MN (United States)
2017-04-15
We perform a likelihood analysis of the minimal anomaly-mediated supersymmetry-breaking (mAMSB) model using constraints from cosmology and accelerator experiments. We find that either a wino-like or a Higgsino-like neutralino LSP, χ{sup 0}{sub 1}, may provide the cold dark matter (DM), both with similar likelihoods. The upper limit on the DM density from Planck and other experiments enforces m{sub χ{sup 0}{sub 1}}
Analysis of deregulation models; Denryoku shijo jiyuka model no bunseki
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yajima, M. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan)
1996-04-01
Trends toward power market deregulation were investigated in Japan and 16 other countries, and various deregulation models were examined and evaluated for their merits and demerits. There are four basic models, that is, franchise bidding model, competitive bidding in power generation model, wholesale wheeling or retail wheeling model, and mandatory pool or voluntary pool model. Power market deregulation has been a global tendency since the second half of the 1970s, with various models adopted by different countries. Out of the above-said models, it is the retail wheeling model and pool models (open access models) that allow the final customer to select power suppliers, and the number of countries adopting these models is increasing. The said models are characterized in that the disintegration of the vertical transmission-distribution integration (separation of distribution service and retail supply service) and the liberation of the retail market are simultaneously accomplished. The pool models, in particular, are enjoying favor because conditions for fair competition have already been prepared and because it is believed high in efficiency. In Japan and France, where importance is attached to atomic power generation, the competitive bidding model is adopted as a means to harmonize the introduction of competition into the source development and power generation sectors. 7 refs., 4 tabs.
Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.
Zi, Z
2011-11-01
With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.
ERM model analysis for adaptation to hydrological model errors
Baymani-Nezhad, M.; Han, D.
2018-05-01
Hydrological conditions are changed continuously and these phenomenons generate errors on flood forecasting models and will lead to get unrealistic results. Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, a concept called model updating is proposed in hydrological studies. Real-time model updating is one of the challenging processes in hydrological sciences and has not been entirely solved due to lack of knowledge about the future state of the catchment under study. Basically, in terms of flood forecasting process, errors propagated from the rainfall-runoff model are enumerated as the main source of uncertainty in the forecasting model. Hence, to dominate the exciting errors, several methods have been proposed by researchers to update the rainfall-runoff models such as parameter updating, model state updating, and correction on input data. The current study focuses on investigations about the ability of rainfall-runoff model parameters to cope with three types of existing errors, timing, shape and volume as the common errors in hydrological modelling. The new lumped model, the ERM model, has been selected for this study to evaluate its parameters for its use in model updating to cope with the stated errors. Investigation about ten events proves that the ERM model parameters can be updated to cope with the errors without the need to recalibrate the model.
Model Theory in Algebra, Analysis and Arithmetic
Dries, Lou; Macpherson, H Dugald; Pillay, Anand; Toffalori, Carlo; Wilkie, Alex J
2014-01-01
Presenting recent developments and applications, the book focuses on four main topics in current model theory: 1) the model theory of valued fields; 2) undecidability in arithmetic; 3) NIP theories; and 4) the model theory of real and complex exponentiation. Young researchers in model theory will particularly benefit from the book, as will more senior researchers in other branches of mathematics.
Applied data analysis and modeling for energy engineers and scientists
Reddy, T Agami
2011-01-01
""Applied Data Analysis and Modeling for Energy Engineers and Scientists"" discusses mathematical models, data analysis, and decision analysis in modeling. The approach taken in this volume focuses on the modeling and analysis of thermal systems in an engineering environment, while also covering a number of other critical areas. Other material covered includes the tools that researchers and engineering professionals will need in order to explore different analysis methods, use critical assessment skills and reach sound engineering conclusions. The book also covers process and system design and
Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2001-01-01
This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as
Evaluation of RCAS Inflow Models for Wind Turbine Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tangler, J.; Bir, G.
2004-02-01
The finite element structural modeling in the Rotorcraft Comprehensive Analysis System (RCAS) provides a state-of-the-art approach to aeroelastic analysis. This, coupled with its ability to model all turbine components, results in a methodology that can simulate complex system interactions characteristic of large wind. In addition, RCAS is uniquely capable of modeling advanced control algorithms and the resulting dynamic responses.
[Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].
Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin
2011-03-01
Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.
Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu
1980-09-01
This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)
Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical Interaction Model ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this analysis, we will study the sensitivity analysis due to a variation of the initial condition and experimental time. These results which we have not seen elsewhere are analysed and discussed quantitatively. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manage. June, 2012, Vol.
Statistical models for competing risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sather, H.N.
1976-08-01
Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined
Qualitative Analysis of Integration Adapter Modeling
Ritter, Daniel; Holzleitner, Manuel
2015-01-01
Integration Adapters are a fundamental part of an integration system, since they provide (business) applications access to its messaging channel. However, their modeling and configuration remain under-represented. In previous work, the integration control and data flow syntax and semantics have been expressed in the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) as a semantic model for message-based integration, while adapter and the related quality of service modeling were left for further studi...
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT MODELS
Sandeep Kaur*
2017-01-01
No geek is unfamiliar with the concept of software development life cycle (SDLC). This research deals with the various SDLC models covering waterfall, spiral, and iterative, agile, V-shaped, prototype model. In the modern era, all the software systems are fallible as they can’t stand with certainty. So, it is tried to compare all aspects of the various models, their pros and cons so that it could be easy to choose a particular model at the time of need
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carla Alexandra ANGHELESCU
2015-07-01
Full Text Available The present paper is aimed to present a comparative analysis of the causes of absolute nullity of the contract in the Romanian and the Spanish civil law. Thus, the study focuses on the presentation of both similarities and differences between the provisions of the Romanian Civil Code and the Spanish Civil Code that regulate the legal institution of the nullity of contracts, outlining the practical consequences of the conclusion.
Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)
2004-01-01
A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)
Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL
Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol
EQUIVALENT MODELS IN COVARIANCE STRUCTURE-ANALYSIS
LUIJBEN, TCW
1991-01-01
Defining equivalent models as those that reproduce the same set of covariance matrices, necessary and sufficient conditions are stated for the local equivalence of two expanded identified models M1 and M2 when fitting the more restricted model M0. Assuming several regularity conditions, the rank
Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program
Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork
1997-01-01
The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.
Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.
2005-01-01
Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)
Advances in power system modelling, control and stability analysis
Milano, Federico
2016-01-01
Advances in Power System Modelling, Control and Stability Analysis captures the variety of new methodologies and technologies that are changing the way modern electric power systems are modelled, simulated and operated.
TIPPtool: Compositional Specification and Analysis of Markovian Performance Models
Hermanns, H.; Halbwachs, N.; Peled, D.; Mertsiotakis, V.; Siegle, M.
1999-01-01
In this short paper we briefly describe a tool which is based on a Markovian stochastic process algebra. The tool offers both model specification and quantitative model analysis in a compositional fashion, wrapped in a userfriendly graphical front-end.
EXPOSURE ANALYSIS MODELING SYSTEM (EXAMS): USER MANUAL AND SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION
The Exposure Analysis Modeling System, first published in 1982 (EPA-600/3-82-023), provides interactive computer software for formulating aquatic ecosystem models and rapidly evaluating the fate, transport, and exposure concentrations of synthetic organic chemicals - pesticides, ...
Modeling Toolkit and Workbook for Defense Analysis Students
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Riden, Chad A; Drake, Douglass M
2006-01-01
.... Topics covered include difference equations, systems of difference equations, Lanchester equations, graphical analysis, proportionality, geometric similarity, model fitting, Monte Carlo simulation...
A Hierarchical Visualization Analysis Model of Power Big Data
Li, Yongjie; Wang, Zheng; Hao, Yang
2018-01-01
Based on the conception of integrating VR scene and power big data analysis, a hierarchical visualization analysis model of power big data is proposed, in which levels are designed, targeting at different abstract modules like transaction, engine, computation, control and store. The regularly departed modules of power data storing, data mining and analysis, data visualization are integrated into one platform by this model. It provides a visual analysis solution for the power big data.
[Analysis of the stability and adaptability of near infrared spectra qualitative analysis model].
Cao, Wu; Li, Wei-jun; Wang, Ping; Zhang, Li-ping
2014-06-01
The stability and adaptability of model of near infrared spectra qualitative analysis were studied. Method of separate modeling can significantly improve the stability and adaptability of model; but its ability of improving adaptability of model is limited. Method of joint modeling can not only improve the adaptability of the model, but also the stability of model, at the same time, compared to separate modeling, the method can shorten the modeling time, reduce the modeling workload; extend the term of validity of model, and improve the modeling efficiency. The experiment of model adaptability shows that, the correct recognition rate of separate modeling method is relatively low, which can not meet the requirements of application, and joint modeling method can reach the correct recognition rate of 90%, and significantly enhances the recognition effect. The experiment of model stability shows that, the identification results of model by joint modeling are better than the model by separate modeling, and has good application value.
Heavy traffic analysis of polling models by mean value analysis
Mei, van der R.D.; Winands, E.M.M.
2008-01-01
In this paper we present a new approach to derive heavy-traffic asymptotics for polling models. We consider the classical cyclic polling model with exhaustive or gated service at each queue, and with general service-time and switch-over time distributions, and study its behavior when the load tends
Stochastic Wake Modelling Based on POD Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Bastine
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In this work, large eddy simulation data is analysed to investigate a new stochastic modeling approach for the wake of a wind turbine. The data is generated by the large eddy simulation (LES model PALM combined with an actuator disk with rotation representing the turbine. After applying a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD, three different stochastic models for the weighting coefficients of the POD modes are deduced resulting in three different wake models. Their performance is investigated mainly on the basis of aeroelastic simulations of a wind turbine in the wake. Three different load cases and their statistical characteristics are compared for the original LES, truncated PODs and the stochastic wake models including different numbers of POD modes. It is shown that approximately six POD modes are enough to capture the load dynamics on large temporal scales. Modeling the weighting coefficients as independent stochastic processes leads to similar load characteristics as in the case of the truncated POD. To complete this simplified wake description, we show evidence that the small-scale dynamics can be captured by adding to our model a homogeneous turbulent field. In this way, we present a procedure to derive stochastic wake models from costly computational fluid dynamics (CFD calculations or elaborated experimental investigations. These numerically efficient models provide the added value of possible long-term studies. Depending on the aspects of interest, different minimalized models may be obtained.
Mineralogic Model (MM3.0) Analysis Model Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
C. Lum
2002-02-12
The purpose of this report is to document the Mineralogic Model (MM), Version 3.0 (MM3.0) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.0 and previous versions. A three-dimensional (3-D) Mineralogic Model was developed for Yucca Mountain to support the analyses of hydrologic properties, radionuclide transport, mineral health hazards, repository performance, and repository design. Version 3.0 of the MM was developed from mineralogic data obtained from borehole samples. It consists of matrix mineral abundances as a function of x (easting), y (northing), and z (elevation), referenced to the stratigraphic framework defined in Version 3.1 of the Geologic Framework Model (GFM). The MM was developed specifically for incorporation into the 3-D Integrated Site Model (ISM). The MM enables project personnel to obtain calculated mineral abundances at any position, within any region, or within any stratigraphic unit in the model area. The significance of the MM for key aspects of site characterization and performance assessment is explained in the following subsections. This work was conducted in accordance with the Development Plan for the MM (CRWMS M&O 2000). The planning document for this Rev. 00, ICN 02 of this AMR is Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The purpose of this ICN is to record changes in the classification of input status by the resolution of the use of TBV software and data in this report. Constraints and limitations of the MM are discussed in the appropriate sections that follow. The MM is one component of the ISM, which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1
Mineralogic Model (MM3.0) Analysis Model Report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lum, C.
2002-01-01
The purpose of this report is to document the Mineralogic Model (MM), Version 3.0 (MM3.0) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.0 and previous versions. A three-dimensional (3-D) Mineralogic Model was developed for Yucca Mountain to support the analyses of hydrologic properties, radionuclide transport, mineral health hazards, repository performance, and repository design. Version 3.0 of the MM was developed from mineralogic data obtained from borehole samples. It consists of matrix mineral abundances as a function of x (easting), y (northing), and z (elevation), referenced to the stratigraphic framework defined in Version 3.1 of the Geologic Framework Model (GFM). The MM was developed specifically for incorporation into the 3-D Integrated Site Model (ISM). The MM enables project personnel to obtain calculated mineral abundances at any position, within any region, or within any stratigraphic unit in the model area. The significance of the MM for key aspects of site characterization and performance assessment is explained in the following subsections. This work was conducted in accordance with the Development Plan for the MM (CRWMS M and O 2000). The planning document for this Rev. 00, ICN 02 of this AMR is Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01 (CRWMS M and O 2000). The purpose of this ICN is to record changes in the classification of input status by the resolution of the use of TBV software and data in this report. Constraints and limitations of the MM are discussed in the appropriate sections that follow. The MM is one component of the ISM, which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components
The uncertainty analysis of model results a practical guide
Hofer, Eduard
2018-01-01
This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.
Multifractal modelling and 3D lacunarity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hanen, Akkari; Imen, Bhouri; Asma, Ben Abdallah; Patrick, Dubois; Hedi, Bedoui Mohamed
2009-01-01
This study presents a comparative evaluation of lacunarity of 3D grey level models with different types of inhomogeneity. A new method based on the 'Relative Differential Box Counting' was developed to estimate the lacunarity features of grey level volumes. To validate our method, we generated a set of 3D grey level multifractal models with random, anisotropic and hierarchical properties. Our method gives a lacunarity measurement correlated with the theoretical one and allows a better model classification compared with a classical approach.
On constitutive modelling in finite element analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bathe, K.J.; Snyder, M.D.; Cleary, M.P.
1979-01-01
This compact contains a brief introduction to the problems involved in constitutive modeling as well as an outline of the final paper to be submitted. Attention is focussed on three important areas: (1) the need for using theoretically sound material models and the importance of recognizing the limitations of the models, (2) the problem of developing stable and effective numerical representations of the models, and (3) the necessity for selection of an appropriate finite element mesh that can capture the actual physical response of the complete structure. In the final paper, we will be presenting our recent research results pertaining to each of these problem areas. (orig.)
Hierarchical regression analysis in structural Equation Modeling
de Jong, P.F.
1999-01-01
In a hierarchical or fixed-order regression analysis, the independent variables are entered into the regression equation in a prespecified order. Such an analysis is often performed when the extra amount of variance accounted for in a dependent variable by a specific independent variable is the main
Approximate deconvolution models of turbulence analysis, phenomenology and numerical analysis
Layton, William J
2012-01-01
This volume presents a mathematical development of a recent approach to the modeling and simulation of turbulent flows based on methods for the approximate solution of inverse problems. The resulting Approximate Deconvolution Models or ADMs have some advantages over more commonly used turbulence models – as well as some disadvantages. Our goal in this book is to provide a clear and complete mathematical development of ADMs, while pointing out the difficulties that remain. In order to do so, we present the analytical theory of ADMs, along with its connections, motivations and complements in the phenomenology of and algorithms for ADMs.
Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction
Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.
2017-12-01
Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been
Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?
Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.
1994-01-01
The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in
Model analysis of adaptive car driving behavior
Wewerinke, P.H.
1996-01-01
This paper deals with two modeling approaches to car driving. The first one is a system theoretic approach to describe adaptive human driving behavior. The second approach utilizes neural networks. As an illustrative example the overtaking task is considered and modeled in system theoretic terms.
Wellness Model of Supervision: A Comparative Analysis
Lenz, A. Stephen; Sangganjanavanich, Varunee Faii; Balkin, Richard S.; Oliver, Marvarene; Smith, Robert L.
2012-01-01
This quasi-experimental study compared the effectiveness of the Wellness Model of Supervision (WELMS; Lenz & Smith, 2010) with alternative supervision models for developing wellness constructs, total personal wellness, and helping skills among counselors-in-training. Participants were 32 master's-level counseling students completing their…
Analysis of a Thin Optical Lens Model
Ivchenko, Vladimir V.
2011-01-01
In this article a thin optical lens model is considered. It is shown that the limits of its applicability are determined not only by the ratio between the thickness of the lens and the modules of the radii of curvature, but above all its geometric type. We have derived the analytical criteria for the applicability of the model for different types…
Extendable linearised adjustment model for deformation analysis
Hiddo Velsink
2015-01-01
Author supplied: "This paper gives a linearised adjustment model for the affine, similarity and congruence transformations in 3D that is easily extendable with other parameters to describe deformations. The model considers all coordinates stochastic. Full positive semi-definite covariance matrices
Extendable linearised adjustment model for deformation analysis
Velsink, H.
2015-01-01
This paper gives a linearised adjustment model for the affine, similarity and congruence transformations in 3D that is easily extendable with other parameters to describe deformations. The model considers all coordinates stochastic. Full positive semi-definite covariance matrices and correlation
Reusable launch vehicle model uncertainties impact analysis
Chen, Jiaye; Mu, Rongjun; Zhang, Xin; Deng, Yanpeng
2018-03-01
Reusable launch vehicle(RLV) has the typical characteristics of complex aerodynamic shape and propulsion system coupling, and the flight environment is highly complicated and intensely changeable. So its model has large uncertainty, which makes the nominal system quite different from the real system. Therefore, studying the influences caused by the uncertainties on the stability of the control system is of great significance for the controller design. In order to improve the performance of RLV, this paper proposes the approach of analyzing the influence of the model uncertainties. According to the typical RLV, the coupling dynamic and kinematics models are built. Then different factors that cause uncertainties during building the model are analyzed and summed up. After that, the model uncertainties are expressed according to the additive uncertainty model. Choosing the uncertainties matrix's maximum singular values as the boundary model, and selecting the uncertainties matrix's norm to show t how much the uncertainty factors influence is on the stability of the control system . The simulation results illustrate that the inertial factors have the largest influence on the stability of the system, and it is necessary and important to take the model uncertainties into consideration before the designing the controller of this kind of aircraft( like RLV, etc).
Analysis of Modeling Parameters on Threaded Screws.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vigil, Miquela S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brake, Matthew Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vangoethem, Douglas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-06-01
Assembled mechanical systems often contain a large number of bolted connections. These bolted connections (joints) are integral aspects of the load path for structural dynamics, and, consequently, are paramount for calculating a structure's stiffness and energy dissipation prop- erties. However, analysts have not found the optimal method to model appropriately these bolted joints. The complexity of the screw geometry cause issues when generating a mesh of the model. This paper will explore different approaches to model a screw-substrate connec- tion. Model parameters such as mesh continuity, node alignment, wedge angles, and thread to body element size ratios are examined. The results of this study will give analysts a better understanding of the influences of these parameters and will aide in finding the optimal method to model bolted connections.
Analytic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models with input correlations
Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping A.; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu
2018-03-01
Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating mathematical models. In mathematical modeling, the uncertainty in input variables is specified through distribution laws. Its contribution to the uncertainty in model response is usually analyzed by assuming that input variables are independent of each other. However, correlated parameters are often happened in practical applications. In the present paper, an analytic method is built for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models in the presence of input correlations. With the method, it is straightforward to identify the importance of the independence and correlations of input variables in determining the model response. This allows one to decide whether or not the input correlations should be considered in practice. Numerical examples suggest the effectiveness and validation of our analytic method in the analysis of general models. A practical application of the method is also proposed to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a deterministic HIV model.
Analysis of nonlinear systems using ARMA [autoregressive moving average] models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hunter, N.F. Jr.
1990-01-01
While many vibration systems exhibit primarily linear behavior, a significant percentage of the systems encountered in vibration and model testing are mildly to severely nonlinear. Analysis methods for such nonlinear systems are not yet well developed and the response of such systems is not accurately predicted by linear models. Nonlinear ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models are one method for the analysis and response prediction of nonlinear vibratory systems. In this paper we review the background of linear and nonlinear ARMA models, and illustrate the application of these models to nonlinear vibration systems. We conclude by summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of ARMA models and emphasizing prospects for future development. 14 refs., 11 figs
Application of autoregressive moving average model in reactor noise analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tran Dinh Tri
1993-01-01
The application of an autoregressive (AR) model to estimating noise measurements has achieved many successes in reactor noise analysis in the last ten years. The physical processes that take place in the nuclear reactor, however, are described by an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model rather than by an AR model. Consequently more correct results could be obtained by applying the ARMA model instead of the AR model to reactor noise analysis. In this paper the system of the generalised Yule-Walker equations is derived from the equation of an ARMA model, then a method for its solution is given. Numerical results show the applications of the method proposed. (author)
Evaluation of Thermal Margin Analysis Models for SMART
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Seo, Kyong Won; Kwon, Hyuk; Hwang, Dae Hyun
2011-01-01
Thermal margin of SMART would be analyzed by three different methods. The first method is subchannel analysis by MATRA-S code and it would be a reference data for the other two methods. The second method is an on-line few channel analysis by FAST code that would be integrated into SCOPS/SCOMS. The last one is a single channel module analysis by safety analysis. Several thermal margin analysis models for SMART reactor core by subchannel analysis were setup and tested. We adopted a strategy of single stage analysis for thermal analysis of SMART reactor core. The model should represent characteristics of the SMART reactor core including hot channel. The model should be simple as possible to be evaluated within reasonable time and cost
Probabilistic forward model for electroencephalography source analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Plis, Sergey M; George, John S; Jun, Sung C; Ranken, Doug M; Volegov, Petr L; Schmidt, David M
2007-01-01
Source localization by electroencephalography (EEG) requires an accurate model of head geometry and tissue conductivity. The estimation of source time courses from EEG or from EEG in conjunction with magnetoencephalography (MEG) requires a forward model consistent with true activity for the best outcome. Although MRI provides an excellent description of soft tissue anatomy, a high resolution model of the skull (the dominant resistive component of the head) requires CT, which is not justified for routine physiological studies. Although a number of techniques have been employed to estimate tissue conductivity, no present techniques provide the noninvasive 3D tomographic mapping of conductivity that would be desirable. We introduce a formalism for probabilistic forward modeling that allows the propagation of uncertainties in model parameters into possible errors in source localization. We consider uncertainties in the conductivity profile of the skull, but the approach is general and can be extended to other kinds of uncertainties in the forward model. We and others have previously suggested the possibility of extracting conductivity of the skull from measured electroencephalography data by simultaneously optimizing over dipole parameters and the conductivity values required by the forward model. Using Cramer-Rao bounds, we demonstrate that this approach does not improve localization results nor does it produce reliable conductivity estimates. We conclude that the conductivity of the skull has to be either accurately measured by an independent technique, or that the uncertainties in the conductivity values should be reflected in uncertainty in the source location estimates
Aircraft vulnerability analysis by modelling and simulation
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Willers, CJ
2014-09-01
Full Text Available attributable to misuse of the weapon or to missile performance restrictions. This paper analyses some of the factors affecting aircraft vulnerability and demonstrates a structured analysis of the risk and aircraft vulnerability problem. The aircraft...
Multifractal modelling and 3D lacunarity analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hanen, Akkari, E-mail: bettaieb.hanen@topnet.t [Laboratoire de biophysique, TIM, Faculte de Medecine (Tunisia); Imen, Bhouri, E-mail: bhouri_imen@yahoo.f [Unite de recherche ondelettes et multifractals, Faculte des sciences (Tunisia); Asma, Ben Abdallah, E-mail: asma.babdallah@cristal.rnu.t [Laboratoire de biophysique, TIM, Faculte de Medecine (Tunisia); Patrick, Dubois, E-mail: pdubois@chru-lille.f [INSERM, U 703, Lille (France); Hedi, Bedoui Mohamed, E-mail: medhedi.bedoui@fmm.rnu.t [Laboratoire de biophysique, TIM, Faculte de Medecine (Tunisia)
2009-09-28
This study presents a comparative evaluation of lacunarity of 3D grey level models with different types of inhomogeneity. A new method based on the 'Relative Differential Box Counting' was developed to estimate the lacunarity features of grey level volumes. To validate our method, we generated a set of 3D grey level multifractal models with random, anisotropic and hierarchical properties. Our method gives a lacunarity measurement correlated with the theoretical one and allows a better model classification compared with a classical approach.
Analysis of Brown camera distortion model
Nowakowski, Artur; Skarbek, Władysław
2013-10-01
Contemporary image acquisition devices introduce optical distortion into image. It results in pixel displacement and therefore needs to be compensated for many computer vision applications. The distortion is usually modeled by the Brown distortion model, which parameters can be included in camera calibration task. In this paper we describe original model, its dependencies and analyze orthogonality with regard to radius for its decentering distortion component. We also report experiments with camera calibration algorithm included in OpenCV library, especially a stability of distortion parameters estimation is evaluated.
Geometrical analysis of the interacting boson model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dieperink, A.E.L.
1983-01-01
The Interacting Boson Model is considered, in relation with geometrical models and the application of mean field techniques to algebraic models, in three lectures. In the first, several methods are reviewed to establish a connection between the algebraic formulation of collective nuclear properties in terms of the group SU(6) and the geometric approach. In the second lecture the geometric interpretation of new degrees of freedom that arise in the neutron-proton IBA is discussed, and in the third one some further applications of algebraic techniques to the calculation of static and dynamic collective properties are presented. (U.K.)
2018-03-29
From: Dajun Tang, Principal Investigator Subj: ONR Grant# N00014-14-1-0239 & N00014-16-1-2371, “TREX 13 Data analysis /Modeling” Encl: (1) Final...Performance/ Technical Report with SF298 The attached enclosures constitute the final technical report for ONR Grant# N00014-14-1-0239 & N00014-16-1-2371...TREX 13 Data analysis /Modeling” cc: Grant & Contract Administrator, APL-UW Office of Sponsor Programs, UW ONR Seattle – Robert Rice and
Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL
Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects
a finite element model for the analysis of bridge decks
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Dr Obe
A FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF BRIDGE DECKS. NIGERIAN JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 27 NO.1, MARCH 2008. 59. (a) Beam-plate system. (b) T-beam structural model. Fig. 1 Beam-plate structure idealisations. The matrix displacement method of analysis is used. The continuum structure is.
Multiattribute shopping models and ridge regression analysis
Timmermans, H.J.P.
1981-01-01
Policy decisions regarding retailing facilities essentially involve multiple attributes of shopping centres. If mathematical shopping models are to contribute to these decision processes, their structure should reflect the multiattribute character of retailing planning. Examination of existing
Automatic terrain modeling using transfinite element analysis
Collier, Nathan; Calo, Victor M.
2010-01-01
An automatic procedure for modeling terrain is developed based on L2 projection-based interpolation of discrete terrain data onto transfinite function spaces. The function space is refined automatically by the use of image processing techniques
A Petri Nets Model for Blockchain Analysis
Pinna, Andrea; Tonelli, Roberto; Orrú, Matteo; Marchesi, Michele
2017-01-01
A Blockchain is a global shared infrastructure where cryptocurrency transactions among addresses are recorded, validated and made publicly available in a peer- to-peer network. To date the best known and important cryptocurrency is the bitcoin. In this paper we focus on this cryptocurrency and in particular on the modeling of the Bitcoin Blockchain by using the Petri Nets formalism. The proposed model allows us to quickly collect information about identities owning Bitcoin addresses and to re...
Structural dynamic analysis with generalized damping models analysis
Adhikari , Sondipon
2013-01-01
Since Lord Rayleigh introduced the idea of viscous damping in his classic work ""The Theory of Sound"" in 1877, it has become standard practice to use this approach in dynamics, covering a wide range of applications from aerospace to civil engineering. However, in the majority of practical cases this approach is adopted more for mathematical convenience than for modeling the physics of vibration damping. Over the past decade, extensive research has been undertaken on more general ""non-viscous"" damping models and vibration of non-viscously damped systems. This book, along with a related book
Nonlinear Analysis and Modeling of Tires
Noor, Ahmed K.
1996-01-01
The objective of the study was to develop efficient modeling techniques and computational strategies for: (1) predicting the nonlinear response of tires subjected to inflation pressure, mechanical and thermal loads; (2) determining the footprint region, and analyzing the tire pavement contact problem, including the effect of friction; and (3) determining the sensitivity of the tire response (displacements, stresses, strain energy, contact pressures and contact area) to variations in the different material and geometric parameters. Two computational strategies were developed. In the first strategy the tire was modeled by using either a two-dimensional shear flexible mixed shell finite elements or a quasi-three-dimensional solid model. The contact conditions were incorporated into the formulation by using a perturbed Lagrangian approach. A number of model reduction techniques were applied to substantially reduce the number of degrees of freedom used in describing the response outside the contact region. The second strategy exploited the axial symmetry of the undeformed tire, and uses cylindrical coordinates in the development of three-dimensional elements for modeling each of the different parts of the tire cross section. Model reduction techniques are also used with this strategy.
Analysis, Analysis Practices and Implications for Modeling and Simulation
2007-01-01
the Somme, New York: Penguin , 1983. Kent, Glenn A., “Looking Back: Four Decades of Analysis,” Operations Research, Vol. 50, No. 1, 2002, pp. 122–224...to many sources is http://www.saunalahti.fi/ fta /EBO.htm (as of December 18, 2006). Effects-based operations are controversial in some respects (Davis
Analysis and Comparison of Typical Models within Distribution Network Design
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, Hans Jacob; Larsen, Allan; Madsen, Oli B.G.
This paper investigates the characteristics of typical optimisation models within Distribution Network Design. During the paper fourteen models known from the literature will be thoroughly analysed. Through this analysis a schematic approach to categorisation of distribution network design models...... for educational purposes. Furthermore, the paper can be seen as a practical introduction to network design modelling as well as a being an art manual or recipe when constructing such a model....
Models as Tools of Analysis of a Network Organisation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wojciech Pająk
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The paper presents models which may be applied as tools of analysis of a network organisation. The starting point of the discussion is defining the following terms: supply chain and network organisation. Further parts of the paper present basic assumptions analysis of a network organisation. Then the study characterises the best known models utilised in analysis of a network organisation. The purpose of the article is to define the notion and the essence of network organizations and to present the models used for their analysis.
Meta-analysis a structural equation modeling approach
Cheung, Mike W-L
2015-01-01
Presents a novel approach to conducting meta-analysis using structural equation modeling. Structural equation modeling (SEM) and meta-analysis are two powerful statistical methods in the educational, social, behavioral, and medical sciences. They are often treated as two unrelated topics in the literature. This book presents a unified framework on analyzing meta-analytic data within the SEM framework, and illustrates how to conduct meta-analysis using the metaSEM package in the R statistical environment. Meta-Analysis: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach begins by introducing the impo
Environmental Modeling Center / Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
weather and climate. Both have a history. Marine Meteorology Group Products Ocean Winds - Satellite Remote announcement list for changes to our products and services. SDM Contact Notes: Ocean Models -- Avichal Mehra Ocean Waves Sea Ice SST Marine Met. Real Time Ocean Forecasting System (RTOFS) Global RTOFS A hybrid
Lovejoy, Andrew E.; Hilburger, Mark W.
2013-01-01
This document outlines a Modeling and Analysis Plan (MAP) to be followed by the SBKF analysts. It includes instructions on modeling and analysis formulation and execution, model verification and validation, identifying sources of error and uncertainty, and documentation. The goal of this MAP is to provide a standardized procedure that ensures uniformity and quality of the results produced by the project and corresponding documentation.
Tank 5 Model for Sludge Removal Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
LEE, SI
2004-01-01
Computational fluid dynamics methods have been used to develop and provide slurry pump operational guidance for sludge heel removal in Tank 5. Flow patterns calculated by the model were used to evaluate the performance of various combinations of operating pumps and their orientation under steady-state indexed and transient oscillation modes. A model used for previous analyses has been updated to add the valve housing distribution piping and pipe clusters of the cooling coil supply system near pump no. 8 to the previous tank Type-I model. In addition, the updated model included twelve concrete support columns. This model would provide a more accurate assessment of sludge removal capabilities. The model focused on removal of the sludge heel located near the wall of Tank 5 using the two new slurry pumps. The models and calculations were based on prototypic tank geometry and expected normal operating conditions as defined by Tank Closure Project Engineering. Computational fluid dynamics models of Tank 5 with different operating conditions were developed using the FLUENT (trademark) code. The modeling results were used to assess the efficiency of sludge suspension and removal operations in the 75-ft tank. The models employed a three-dimensional approach, a two-equation turbulence model, and an approximate representation of flow obstructions. The calculated local velocity was used as a measure of sludge removal and mixing capability. For the simulations, modeling calculations were performed with indexed pump orientations until an optimum flow pattern near the potential location of the sludge heel was established for sludge removal. The calculated results demonstrated that the existing slurry pumps running at 3801 gpm flowrate per nozzle could remove the sludge from the tank with a 101 in liquid level, based on a historical minimum sludge suspension velocity of 2.27 ft/sec. The only exception is the region within maximum 4.5 ft distance from the tank wall boundary at the
Discretization model for nonlinear dynamic analysis of three dimensional structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hayashi, Y.
1982-12-01
A discretization model for nonlinear dynamic analysis of three dimensional structures is presented. The discretization is achieved through a three dimensional spring-mass system and the dynamic response obtained by direct integration of the equations of motion using central diferences. First the viability of the model is verified through the analysis of homogeneous linear structures and then its performance in the analysis of structures subjected to impulsive or impact loads, taking into account both geometrical and physical nonlinearities is evaluated. (Author) [pt
Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Aral, M. M
2010-01-01
... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...
European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana
2011-01-01
In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)
Comparative analysis of Goodwin's business cycle models
Antonova, A. O.; Reznik, S.; Todorov, M. D.
2016-10-01
We compare the behavior of solutions of Goodwin's business cycle equation in the form of neutral delay differential equation with fixed delay (NDDE model) and in the form of the differential equations of 3rd, 4th and 5th orders (ODE model's). Such ODE model's (Taylor series expansion of NDDE in powers of θ) are proposed in N. Dharmaraj and K. Vela Velupillai [6] for investigation of the short periodic sawthooth oscillations in NDDE. We show that the ODE's of 3rd, 4th and 5th order may approximate the asymptotic behavior of only main Goodwin's mode, but not the sawthooth modes. If the order of the Taylor series expansion exceeds 5, then the approximate ODE becomes unstable independently of time lag θ.
MODELING HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS USING MIDAS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ronald L. Boring; Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Bruce P. Hallbert; Brian F. Gore
2006-05-01
This paper summarizes an emerging collaboration between Idaho National Laboratory and NASA Ames Research Center regarding the utilization of high-fidelity MIDAS simulations for modeling control room crew performance at nuclear power plants. The key envisioned uses for MIDAS-based control room simulations are: (i) the estimation of human error with novel control room equipment and configurations, (ii) the investigative determination of risk significance in recreating past event scenarios involving control room operating crews, and (iii) the certification of novel staffing levels in control rooms. It is proposed that MIDAS serves as a key component for the effective modeling of risk in next generation control rooms.
Applications of model theory to functional analysis
Iovino, Jose
2014-01-01
During the last two decades, methods that originated within mathematical logic have exhibited powerful applications to Banach space theory, particularly set theory and model theory. This volume constitutes the first self-contained introduction to techniques of model theory in Banach space theory. The area of research has grown rapidly since this monograph's first appearance, but much of this material is still not readily available elsewhere. For instance, this volume offers a unified presentation of Krivine's theorem and the Krivine-Maurey theorem on stable Banach spaces, with emphasis on the
CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF EVALUATION MODEL LOMCE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Luis Bernal Agudo
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The evaluation model that the LOMCE projects sinks its roots into the neoliberal beliefs, reflecting a specific way of understanding the world. What matters is not the process but the results, being the evaluation the center of the education-learning processes. It presents an evil planning, since the theory that justifies the model doesn’t specify upon coherent proposals, where there is an excessive worry for excellence and diversity is left out. A comprehensive way of understanding education should be recovered.
Computational Models for Analysis of Illicit Activities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nizamani, Sarwat
been explored in this thesis by considering them as epidemic-like processes. A mathematical model has been developed based on differential equations, which studies the dynamics of the issues from the very beginning until the issues cease. This study extends classical models of the spread of epidemics...... to describe the phenomenon of contagious public outrage, which eventually leads to the spread of violence following a disclosure of some unpopular political decisions and/or activity. The results shed a new light on terror activity and provide some hint on how to curb the spreading of violence within...
Modeling and analysis of offshore jacket platform
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mohan, P.; Sidhaarth, K.R.A.; SanilKumar, V.
analysis is also able to replicate the details of observed behavior of the designed structure. Based on the axial tension/compression and the bending stresses obtained through simulation, the tubular members are designed and the code unity check is done...
Mathematical modeling and analysis of WEDM machining ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
M P GARG
analysis and optimization of the WEDM process parameters of Inconel 625. The four ... fields such as aerospace, missile, and nuclear industry, very complex and ... piping, the alloy continues to find new application and ... automobile, chemical processing, oil refining, marine, ... Inconel 625 is a material of choice for gas.
Horizontal crash testing and analysis of model flatrols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dowler, H.J.; Soanes, T.P.T.
1985-01-01
To assess the behaviour of a full scale flask and flatrol during a proposed demonstration impact into a tunnel abutment, a mathematical modelling technique was developed and validated. The work was performed at quarter scale and comprised of both scale model tests and mathematical analysis in one and two dimensions. Good agreement between model test results of the 26.8m/s (60 mph) abutment impacts and the mathematical analysis, validated the modelling techniques. The modelling method may be used with confidence to predict the outcome of the proposed full scale demonstration. (author)
Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Siu, N.
1989-01-01
This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs
Integrative Analysis of Metabolic Models – from Structure to Dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hartmann, Anja, E-mail: hartmann@ipk-gatersleben.de [Leibniz Institute of Plant Genetics and Crop Plant Research (IPK), Gatersleben (Germany); Schreiber, Falk [Monash University, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Germany)
2015-01-26
The characterization of biological systems with respect to their behavior and functionality based on versatile biochemical interactions is a major challenge. To understand these complex mechanisms at systems level modeling approaches are investigated. Different modeling formalisms allow metabolic models to be analyzed depending on the question to be solved, the biochemical knowledge and the availability of experimental data. Here, we describe a method for an integrative analysis of the structure and dynamics represented by qualitative and quantitative metabolic models. Using various formalisms, the metabolic model is analyzed from different perspectives. Determined structural and dynamic properties are visualized in the context of the metabolic model. Interaction techniques allow the exploration and visual analysis thereby leading to a broader understanding of the behavior and functionality of the underlying biological system. The System Biology Metabolic Model Framework (SBM{sup 2} – Framework) implements the developed method and, as an example, is applied for the integrative analysis of the crop plant potato.
Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu
2009-01-01
Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.
Determining Predictor Importance in Hierarchical Linear Models Using Dominance Analysis
Luo, Wen; Azen, Razia
2013-01-01
Dominance analysis (DA) is a method used to evaluate the relative importance of predictors that was originally proposed for linear regression models. This article proposes an extension of DA that allows researchers to determine the relative importance of predictors in hierarchical linear models (HLM). Commonly used measures of model adequacy in…
Model Uncertainty and Robustness: A Computational Framework for Multimodel Analysis
Young, Cristobal; Holsteen, Katherine
2017-01-01
Model uncertainty is pervasive in social science. A key question is how robust empirical results are to sensible changes in model specification. We present a new approach and applied statistical software for computational multimodel analysis. Our approach proceeds in two steps: First, we estimate the modeling distribution of estimates across all…
System Reliability Analysis Capability and Surrogate Model Application in RAVEN
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Huang, Dongli [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gleicher, Frederick [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Wang, Bei [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Adbel-Khalik, Hany S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
2015-11-01
This report collect the effort performed to improve the reliability analysis capabilities of the RAVEN code and explore new opportunity in the usage of surrogate model by extending the current RAVEN capabilities to multi physics surrogate models and construction of surrogate models for high dimensionality fields.
The genetic analysis of repeated measures I: Simplex models
Molenaar, P.C.M.; Boomsma, D.I.
1987-01-01
Extends the simplex model to a model that may be used for the genetic and environmental analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) structures. This "double" simplex structure can be specified as a linear structural relationships model. It is shown that data that give rise to a simplex correlation structure,
Integration of Design and Control Through Model Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Russel, Boris Mariboe; Henriksen, Jens Peter; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2000-01-01
of the phenomena models representing the process model identify the relationships between the important process and design variables, which help to understand, define and address some of the issues related to integration of design and control issues. The model analysis is highlighted through examples involving...... processes with mass and/or energy recycle. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....
ANALYSIS/MODEL COVER SHEET, MULTISCALE THERMOHYDROLOGIC MODEL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buscheck, T.A.
2001-01-01
The purpose of the Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model (MSTHM) is to describe the thermohydrologic evolution of the near-field environment (NFE) and engineered barrier system (EBS) throughout the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain for a particular engineering design (CRWMS M andO 2000c). The process-level model will provide thermohydrologic (TH) information and data (such as in-drift temperature, relative humidity, liquid saturation, etc.) for use in other technical products. This data is provided throughout the entire repository area as a function of time. The MSTHM couples the Smeared-heat-source Drift-scale Thermal-conduction (SDT), Line-average-heat-source Drift-scale Thermohydrologic (LDTH), Discrete-heat-source Drift-scale Thermal-conduction (DDT), and Smeared-heat-source Mountain-scale Thermal-conduction (SMT) submodels such that the flow of water and water vapor through partially-saturated fractured rock is considered. The MSTHM accounts for 3-D drift-scale and mountain-scale heat flow, repository-scale variability of stratigraphy and infiltration flux, and waste package (WP)-to-WP variability in heat output from WPs. All submodels use the nonisothermal unsaturated-saturated flow and transport (NUFT) simulation code. The MSTHM is implemented in several data-processing steps. The four major steps are: (1) submodel input-file preparation, (2) execution of the four submodel families with the use of the NUFT code, (3) execution of the multiscale thermohydrologic abstraction code (MSTHAC), and (4) binning and post-processing (i.e., graphics preparation) of the output from MSTHAC. Section 6 describes the MSTHM in detail. The objectives of this Analyses and Model Report (AMR) are to investigate near field (NF) and EBS thermohydrologic environments throughout the repository area at various evolution periods, and to provide TH data that may be used in other process model reports
Electromagnetic modeling method for eddy current signal analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, D. H.; Jung, H. K.; Cheong, Y. M.; Lee, Y. S.; Huh, H.; Yang, D. J.
2004-10-01
An electromagnetic modeling method for eddy current signal analysis is necessary before an experiment is performed. Electromagnetic modeling methods consists of the analytical method and the numerical method. Also, the numerical methods can be divided by Finite Element Method(FEM), Boundary Element Method(BEM) and Volume Integral Method(VIM). Each modeling method has some merits and demerits. Therefore, the suitable modeling method can be chosen by considering the characteristics of each modeling. This report explains the principle and application of each modeling method and shows the comparison modeling programs
An Analysis of Student Model Portability
Valdés Aguirre, Benjamín; Ramírez Uresti, Jorge A.; du Boulay, Benedict
2016-01-01
Sharing user information between systems is an area of interest for every field involving personalization. Recommender Systems are more advanced in this aspect than Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and Intelligent Learning Environments (ILEs). A reason for this is that the user models of Intelligent Tutoring Systems and Intelligent Learning…
Feature Analysis for Modeling Game Content Quality
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Shaker, Noor; Yannakakis, Georgios N.; Togelius, Julian
2011-01-01
’ preferences, and by defining the smallest game session size for which the model can still predict reported emotion with acceptable accuracy. Neuroevolutionary preference learning is used to approximate the function from game content to reported emotional preferences. The experiments are based on a modified...
Flood Progression Modelling and Impact Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Nickerson, B.
People living in the lower valley of the St. John River, New Brunswick, Canada, frequently experience flooding when the river overflows its banks during spring ice melt and rain. To better prepare the population of New Brunswick for extreme flooding, we developed a new flood prediction model...
Transient analysis models for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Agapito, J.R.
1981-01-01
The modelling used for the simulation of the Angra-1 start-up reactor tests, using the RETRAN computer code is presented. Three tests are simulated: a)nuclear power plant trip from 100% of power; b)great power excursions tests and c)'load swing' tests.(E.G.) [pt
Social Ecological Model Analysis for ICT Integration
Zagami, Jason
2013-01-01
ICT integration of teacher preparation programmes was undertaken by the Australian Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project in all 39 Australian teacher education institutions and highlighted the need for guidelines to inform systemic ICT integration approaches. A Social Ecological Model (SEM) was used to positively inform integration…
Quantitative Models and Analysis for Reactive Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thrane, Claus
phones and websites. Acknowledging that now more than ever, systems come in contact with the physical world, we need to revise the way we construct models and verification algorithms, to take into account the behavior of systems in the presence of approximate, or quantitative information, provided...
Financial Markets Analysis by Probabilistic Fuzzy Modelling
J.H. van den Berg (Jan); W.-M. van den Bergh (Willem-Max); U. Kaymak (Uzay)
2003-01-01
textabstractFor successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno
Curricular Change: A Model for Analysis.
Axelrod, Joseph
This interim report on 1 project at the Berkeley Center for Research and Development in Higher Education deals with the construction of a theoretical model of the curricular-instructional subsystem. The relationship between student unrest and the poor quality of education in American colleges has long been evident to educational researchers. The…
Financial markets analysis by probabilistic fuzzy modelling
Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, U.; Bergh, van den W.M.
2003-01-01
For successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno (TS)
Premium adjustment: actuarial analysis on epidemiological models ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper, we analyse insurance premium adjustment in the context of an epidemiological model where the insurer's future financial liability is greater than the premium from patients. In this situation, it becomes extremely difficult for the insurer since a negative reserve would severely increase its risk of insolvency, ...
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING A UNIQUE MODEL OF TRANSFORMATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Goran Klepac
2007-12-01
Full Text Available REFII1 model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series. An advantage of this approach of time series analysis is the linkage of different methods for time series analysis, linking traditional data mining tools in time series, and constructing new algorithms for analyzing time series. It is worth mentioning that REFII model is not a closed system, which means that we have a finite set of methods. At first, this is a model for transformation of values of time series, which prepares data used by different sets of methods based on the same model of transformation in a domain of problem space. REFII model gives a new approach in time series analysis based on a unique model of transformation, which is a base for all kind of time series analysis. The advantage of REFII model is its possible application in many different areas such as finance, medicine, voice recognition, face recognition and text mining.
The case for repeatable analysis with energy economy optimization models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
DeCarolis, Joseph F.; Hunter, Kevin; Sreepathi, Sarat
2012-01-01
Energy economy optimization (EEO) models employ formal search techniques to explore the future decision space over several decades in order to deliver policy-relevant insights. EEO models are a critical tool for decision-makers who must make near-term decisions with long-term effects in the face of large future uncertainties. While the number of model-based analyses proliferates, insufficient attention is paid to transparency in model development and application. Given the complex, data-intensive nature of EEO models and the general lack of access to source code and data, many of the assumptions underlying model-based analysis are hidden from external observers. This paper discusses the simplifications and subjective judgments involved in the model building process, which cannot be fully articulated in journal papers, reports, or model documentation. In addition, we argue that for all practical purposes, EEO model-based insights cannot be validated through comparison to real world outcomes. As a result, modelers are left without credible metrics to assess a model's ability to deliver reliable insight. We assert that EEO models should be discoverable through interrogation of publicly available source code and data. In addition, third parties should be able to run a specific model instance in order to independently verify published results. Yet a review of twelve EEO models suggests that in most cases, replication of model results is currently impossible. We provide several recommendations to help develop and sustain a software framework for repeatable model analysis.
Transducer Analysis and ATILA++ Model Development
2016-10-10
the behavior of single crystal piezoelectric devices. OBJECTIVES To carry out this effort, a team consisting of ISEN...recording the vibration displacements on the opposite surface of the sample with a second receiving transducer. A software program is used to curve-fit the ...analysis in a loop until the desired quality of fit is achieved. 12 The technique has, in the past, been successfully used to determine
Three dimensional mathematical model of tooth for finite element analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Puškar Tatjana
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction. The mathematical model of the abutment tooth is the starting point of the finite element analysis of stress and deformation of dental structures. The simplest and easiest way is to form a model according to the literature data of dimensions and morphological characteristics of teeth. Our method is based on forming 3D models using standard geometrical forms (objects in programmes for solid modeling. Objective. Forming the mathematical model of abutment of the second upper premolar for finite element analysis of stress and deformation of dental structures. Methods. The abutment tooth has a form of a complex geometric object. It is suitable for modeling in programs for solid modeling SolidWorks. After analyzing the literature data about the morphological characteristics of teeth, we started the modeling dividing the tooth (complex geometric body into simple geometric bodies (cylinder, cone, pyramid,.... Connecting simple geometric bodies together or substricting bodies from the basic body, we formed complex geometric body, tooth. The model is then transferred into Abaqus, a computational programme for finite element analysis. Transferring the data was done by standard file format for transferring 3D models ACIS SAT. Results. Using the programme for solid modeling SolidWorks, we developed three models of abutment of the second maxillary premolar: the model of the intact abutment, the model of the endodontically treated tooth with two remaining cavity walls and the model of the endodontically treated tooth with two remaining walls and inserted post. Conclusion Mathematical models of the abutment made according to the literature data are very similar with the real abutment and the simplifications are minimal. These models enable calculations of stress and deformation of the dental structures. The finite element analysis provides useful information in understanding biomechanical problems and gives guidance for clinical research.
Traffic analysis toolbox volume XI : weather and traffic analysis, modeling and simulation.
2010-12-01
This document presents a weather module for the traffic analysis tools program. It provides traffic engineers, transportation modelers and decisions makers with a guide that can incorporate weather impacts into transportation system analysis and mode...
Moderation analysis using a two-level regression model.
Yuan, Ke-Hai; Cheng, Ying; Maxwell, Scott
2014-10-01
Moderation analysis is widely used in social and behavioral research. The most commonly used model for moderation analysis is moderated multiple regression (MMR) in which the explanatory variables of the regression model include product terms, and the model is typically estimated by least squares (LS). This paper argues for a two-level regression model in which the regression coefficients of a criterion variable on predictors are further regressed on moderator variables. An algorithm for estimating the parameters of the two-level model by normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) is developed. Formulas for the standard errors (SEs) of the parameter estimates are provided and studied. Results indicate that, when heteroscedasticity exists, NML with the two-level model gives more efficient and more accurate parameter estimates than the LS analysis of the MMR model. When error variances are homoscedastic, NML with the two-level model leads to essentially the same results as LS with the MMR model. Most importantly, the two-level regression model permits estimating the percentage of variance of each regression coefficient that is due to moderator variables. When applied to data from General Social Surveys 1991, NML with the two-level model identified a significant moderation effect of race on the regression of job prestige on years of education while LS with the MMR model did not. An R package is also developed and documented to facilitate the application of the two-level model.
Formal Analysis of Graphical Security Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Aslanyan, Zaruhi
, software components and human actors interacting with each other to form so-called socio-technical systems. The importance of socio-technical systems to modern societies requires verifying their security properties formally, while their inherent complexity makes manual analyses impracticable. Graphical...... models for security offer an unrivalled opportunity to describe socio-technical systems, for they allow to represent different aspects like human behaviour, computation and physical phenomena in an abstract yet uniform manner. Moreover, these models can be assigned a formal semantics, thereby allowing...... formal verification of their properties. Finally, their appealing graphical notations enable to communicate security concerns in an understandable way also to non-experts, often in charge of the decision making. This dissertation argues that automated techniques can be developed on graphical security...
Modeling, analysis, and visualization of anisotropy
Özarslan, Evren; Hotz, Ingrid
2017-01-01
This book focuses on the modeling, processing and visualization of anisotropy, irrespective of the context in which it emerges, using state-of-the-art mathematical tools. As such, it differs substantially from conventional reference works, which are centered on a particular application. It covers the following topics: (i) the geometric structure of tensors, (ii) statistical methods for tensor field processing, (iii) challenges in mapping neural connectivity and structural mechanics, (iv) processing of uncertainty, and (v) visualizing higher-order representations. In addition to original research contributions, it provides insightful reviews. This multidisciplinary book is the sixth in a series that aims to foster scientific exchange between communities employing tensors and other higher-order representations of directionally dependent data. A significant number of the chapters were co-authored by the participants of the workshop titled Multidisciplinary Approaches to Multivalued Data: Modeling, Visualization,...
Analysis of mathematical modelling on potentiometric biosensors.
Mehala, N; Rajendran, L
2014-01-01
A mathematical model of potentiometric enzyme electrodes for a nonsteady condition has been developed. The model is based on the system of two coupled nonlinear time-dependent reaction diffusion equations for Michaelis-Menten formalism that describes the concentrations of substrate and product within the enzymatic layer. Analytical expressions for the concentration of substrate and product and the corresponding flux response have been derived for all values of parameters using the new homotopy perturbation method. Furthermore, the complex inversion formula is employed in this work to solve the boundary value problem. The analytical solutions obtained allow a full description of the response curves for only two kinetic parameters (unsaturation/saturation parameter and reaction/diffusion parameter). Theoretical descriptions are given for the two limiting cases (zero and first order kinetics) and relatively simple approaches for general cases are presented. All the analytical results are compared with simulation results using Scilab/Matlab program. The numerical results agree with the appropriate theories.
Modelling Analysis of Sewage Sludge Amended Soil
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, P. B.; Carlsen, L.; Vikelsøe, J.
the plant effluent. The focus in this work is the top soil as this layer is important for the fate of a xenobiotic substance due to the high biological activity. A simple model for the top soil is used where the substance is assumed homogeneously distributed as suggested in the European Union System......The topic is risk assessment of sludge supply to agricultural soil in relation to xenobiotics. A large variety of xenobiotics arrive to the wastewater treatment plant in the wastewater. Many of these components are hydrophobic and thus will accumulate in the sludge solids and are removed from...... for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES). It is shown how the fraction of substance mass, which is leached, from the top soil is a simple function of the ratio between the degradation half lifetime and the adsorption coefficient. This model can be used in probabilistic risk assessment of agricultural soils...
Simulation modeling and analysis in safety. II
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ayoub, M.A.
1981-01-01
The paper introduces and illustrates simulation modeling as a viable approach for dealing with complex issues and decisions in safety and health. The author details two studies: evaluation of employee exposure to airborne radioactive materials and effectiveness of the safety organization. The first study seeks to define a policy to manage a facility used in testing employees for radiation contamination. An acceptable policy is one that would permit the testing of all employees as defined under regulatory requirements, while not exceeding available resources. The second study evaluates the relationship between safety performance and the characteristics of the organization, its management, its policy, and communication patterns among various functions and levels. Both studies use models where decisions are reached based on the prevailing conditions and occurrence of key events within the simulation environment. Finally, several problem areas suitable for simulation studies are highlighted. (Auth.)
Asymptotic analysis of an ion extraction model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ben Abdallah, N.; Mas-Gallic, S.; Raviart, P.A.
1993-01-01
A simple model for ion extraction from a plasma is analyzed. The order of magnitude of the plasma parameters leads to a singular perturbation problem for a semilinear elliptic equation. We first prove existence of solutions for the perturbed problem and uniqueness under certain conditions. Then we prove the convergence of these solutions, when the parameters go to zero, towards the solution of a Child-Langmuir problem
Spatial analysis and modelling based on activities
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Conradie, Dirk CU
2010-01-01
Full Text Available (deliberative attitudes) (Pokahr, 2005). The BDI model does not cover emotional and other ‘higher’ human attitudes. KRONOS is a generic Computational Building Simulation (CBS) tool that was developed over the past three years to work on advanced... featured, stable, mature and platform independent with an easy to use C/C++ Application Program Interface (API). It has advanced joint types and integrated collision detection with friction. ODE is particularly useful for simulating vehicles, objects...
Stochastic modeling and analysis of telecoms networks
Decreusefond, Laurent
2012-01-01
This book addresses the stochastic modeling of telecommunication networks, introducing the main mathematical tools for that purpose, such as Markov processes, real and spatial point processes and stochastic recursions, and presenting a wide list of results on stability, performances and comparison of systems.The authors propose a comprehensive mathematical construction of the foundations of stochastic network theory: Markov chains, continuous time Markov chains are extensively studied using an original martingale-based approach. A complete presentation of stochastic recursions from an
Automatic terrain modeling using transfinite element analysis
Collier, Nathan
2010-05-31
An automatic procedure for modeling terrain is developed based on L2 projection-based interpolation of discrete terrain data onto transfinite function spaces. The function space is refined automatically by the use of image processing techniques to detect regions of high error and the flexibility of the transfinite interpolation to add degrees of freedom to these areas. Examples are shown of a section of the Palo Duro Canyon in northern Texas.
PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Munapo
2012-01-01
Full Text Available
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.
Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model
Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.
2002-03-01
We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.
Modeling and Analysis of Wrinkled Membranes: An Overview
Yang, B.; Ding, H.; Lou, M.; Fang, H.; Broduer, Steve (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
Thin-film membranes are basic elements of a variety of space inflatable/deployable structures. Wrinkling degrades the performance and reliability of these membrane structures, and hence has been a topic of continued interest. Wrinkling analysis of membranes for general geometry and arbitrary boundary conditions is quite challenging. The objective of this presentation is two-fold. Firstly, the existing models of wrinkled membranes and related numerical solution methods are reviewed. The important issues to be discussed are the capability of a membrane model to characterize taut, wrinkled and slack states of membranes in a consistent and physically reasonable manner; the ability of a wrinkling analysis method to predict the formation and growth of wrinkled regions, and to determine out-of-plane deformation and wrinkled waves; the convergence of a numerical solution method for wrinkling analysis; and the compatibility of a wrinkling analysis with general-purpose finite element codes. According to this review, several opening issues in modeling and analysis of wrinkled membranes that are to be addressed in future research are summarized, The second objective of this presentation is to discuss a newly developed membrane model of two viable parameters (2-VP model) and associated parametric finite element method (PFEM) for wrinkling analysis are introduced. The innovations and advantages of the proposed membrane model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis are: (1) Via a unified stress-strain relation; the 2-VP model treat the taut, wrinkled, and slack states of membranes consistently; (2) The PFEM-based wrinkling analysis has guaranteed convergence; (3) The 2-VP model along with PFEM is capable of predicting membrane out-of-plane deformations; and (4) The PFEM can be integrated into any existing finite element code. Preliminary numerical examples are also included in this presentation to demonstrate the 2-VP model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis approach.
Human Modeling for Ground Processing Human Factors Engineering Analysis
Stambolian, Damon B.; Lawrence, Brad A.; Stelges, Katrine S.; Steady, Marie-Jeanne O.; Ridgwell, Lora C.; Mills, Robert E.; Henderson, Gena; Tran, Donald; Barth, Tim
2011-01-01
There have been many advancements and accomplishments over the last few years using human modeling for human factors engineering analysis for design of spacecraft. The key methods used for this are motion capture and computer generated human models. The focus of this paper is to explain the human modeling currently used at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to explain the future plans for human modeling for future spacecraft designs
Data Analysis A Model Comparison Approach, Second Edition
Judd, Charles M; Ryan, Carey S
2008-01-01
This completely rewritten classic text features many new examples, insights and topics including mediational, categorical, and multilevel models. Substantially reorganized, this edition provides a briefer, more streamlined examination of data analysis. Noted for its model-comparison approach and unified framework based on the general linear model, the book provides readers with a greater understanding of a variety of statistical procedures. This consistent framework, including consistent vocabulary and notation, is used throughout to develop fewer but more powerful model building techniques. T
Continuum methods of physical modeling continuum mechanics, dimensional analysis, turbulence
Hutter, Kolumban
2004-01-01
The book unifies classical continuum mechanics and turbulence modeling, i.e. the same fundamental concepts are used to derive model equations for material behaviour and turbulence closure and complements these with methods of dimensional analysis. The intention is to equip the reader with the ability to understand the complex nonlinear modeling in material behaviour and turbulence closure as well as to derive or invent his own models. Examples are mostly taken from environmental physics and geophysics.
Integration of Design and Control through Model Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Russel, Boris Mariboe; Henriksen, Jens Peter; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2002-01-01
A systematic computer aided analysis of the process model is proposed as a pre-solution step for integration of design and control problems. The process model equations are classified in terms of balance equations, constitutive equations and conditional equations. Analysis of the phenomena models...... (structure selection) issues for the integrated problems are considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....... representing the constitutive equations identify the relationships between the important process and design variables, which help to understand, define and address some of the issues related to integration of design and control. Furthermore, the analysis is able to identify a set of process (control) variables...
Analysis of Jingdong Mall Logistics Distribution Model
Shao, Kang; Cheng, Feng
In recent years, the development of electronic commerce in our country to speed up the pace. The role of logistics has been highlighted, more and more electronic commerce enterprise are beginning to realize the importance of logistics in the success or failure of the enterprise. In this paper, the author take Jingdong Mall for example, performing a SWOT analysis of their current situation of self-built logistics system, find out the problems existing in the current Jingdong Mall logistics distribution and give appropriate recommendations.
AIR INGRESS ANALYSIS: COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMIC MODELS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim; Richard Schultz; Hans Gougar; David Petti; Hyung S. Kang
2010-08-01
The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena important during potential scenarios that may occur in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Phenomena Identification and Ranking Studies to date have ranked an air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as important with regard to core safety. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation data are a very high priority. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air will enter the core of the High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor through the break, possibly causing oxidation of the in-the core and reflector graphite structure. Simple core and plant models indicate that, under certain circumstances, the oxidation may proceed at an elevated rate with additional heat generated from the oxidation reaction itself. Under postulated conditions of fluid flow and temperature, excessive degradation of the lower plenum graphite can lead to a loss of structural support. Excessive oxidation of core graphite can also lead to the release of fission products into the confinement, which could be detrimental to a reactor safety. Computational fluid dynamic model developed in this study will improve our understanding of this phenomenon. This paper presents two-dimensional and three-dimensional CFD results for the quantitative assessment of the air ingress phenomena. A portion of results of the density-driven stratified flow in the inlet pipe will be compared with results of the experimental results.
Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations
Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.
2001-01-01
Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.
Analysis and modeling of "focus" in context
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hovy, Dirk; Anumanchipalli, Gopala; Parlikar, Alok
2013-01-01
This paper uses a crowd-sourced definition of a speech phenomenon we have called focus. Given sentences, text and speech, in isolation and in context, we asked annotators to identify what we term the focus word. We present their consistency in identifying the focused word, when presented with text...... or speech stimuli. We then build models to show how well we predict that focus word from lexical (and higher) level features. Also, using spectral and prosodic information, we show the differences in these focus words when spoken with and without context. Finally, we show how we can improve speech synthesis...
Early Start DENVER Model: A Meta - analysis
Jane P. Canoy; Helen B. Boholano
2015-01-01
Each child with Autism Spectrum Disorder has different symptoms, skills and types of impairment or disorder with other children. This is why the word “spectrum” is included in this disorder. Eapen, Crncec, and Walter, 2013 claimed that there was an emerging evidence that early interventions gives the greatest capacity of child’s development during their first years of life as “brain plasticity” are high during this period. With this, the only intervention program model for children as young a...
Compartmentalization analysis using discrete fracture network models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
La Pointe, P.R.; Eiben, T.; Dershowitz, W. [Golder Associates, Redmond, VA (United States); Wadleigh, E. [Marathon Oil Co., Midland, TX (United States)
1997-08-01
This paper illustrates how Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) technology can serve as a basis for the calculation of reservoir engineering parameters for the development of fractured reservoirs. It describes the development of quantitative techniques for defining the geometry and volume of structurally controlled compartments. These techniques are based on a combination of stochastic geometry, computational geometry, and graph the theory. The parameters addressed are compartment size, matrix block size and tributary drainage volume. The concept of DFN models is explained and methodologies to compute these parameters are demonstrated.
New rheological model for concrete structural analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chern, J.C.
1984-01-01
Long time deformation is of interest in estimating stresses of the prestressed concrete reactor vessel, in predicting cracking due to shrinkage or thermal dilatation, and in the design of leak-tight structures. Many interacting influences exist among creep, shrinkage and cracking for concrete. An interaction which researchers have long observed, is that at simultaneous drying and loading, the deformation of a concrete structure under the combined effect is larger than the sum of the shrinkage deformation of the structure at no load and the deformation of the sealed structure. The excess deformation due to the difference between observed test data and conventional analysis is regarded as the Pickett Effect. A constitutive relation explaining the Pickett Effect and other similar superposition problems, which includes creep, shrinkage (or thermal dilation), cracking, aging was developed with an efficient time-step numerical algorithm. The total deformation in the analysis is the sum of strain due to elastic deformation and creep, cracking and shrinkage with thermal dilatation. Instead of a sudden stress reduction to zero after the attainment of the strength limit, the gradual strain-softening of concrete (a gradual decline of stress at increasing strain) is considered
A Conceptual Model for Multidimensional Analysis of Documents
Ravat, Franck; Teste, Olivier; Tournier, Ronan; Zurlfluh, Gilles
Data warehousing and OLAP are mainly used for the analysis of transactional data. Nowadays, with the evolution of Internet, and the development of semi-structured data exchange format (such as XML), it is possible to consider entire fragments of data such as documents as analysis sources. As a consequence, an adapted multidimensional analysis framework needs to be provided. In this paper, we introduce an OLAP multidimensional conceptual model without facts. This model is based on the unique concept of dimensions and is adapted for multidimensional document analysis. We also provide a set of manipulation operations.
Aspects of uncertainty analysis in accident consequence modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Travis, C.C.; Hoffman, F.O.
1981-01-01
Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of model predictions. In the present paper, we address three aspects of uncertainty in models used to assess the radiological impact to humans: uncertainties resulting from the natural variability in human biological parameters; the propagation of parameter variability by mathematical models; and comparison of model predictions to observational data
Analysis of a classical chiral bag model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nadeau, H.
1985-01-01
The author studies a classical chiral bag model with a Mexican hat-type potential for the self-coupling of the pion fields. He assumes a static spherical bag of radius R, the hedgehog ansatz for the chiral fields and that the quarks are all in the lowest lying s state. The author has considered three classes of models, the cloudy or pantopionic bags, the little or exopionic bags and the endopionic bags, where the pions are allowed all through space, only outside the bag and only inside the bag respectively. In all cases, the quarks are confined in the interior. He calculates the bag radius R, the bag constant B and the total ground state energy R for wide ranges of the two free parameters of the theory, namely the coupling constant λ and the quark frequency omega. The author focuses the study on the endopionic bags, the least known class, and compares the results with the familiar ones of other classes
The Spectrophotometric Analysis and Modeling of Sunscreens
Walters, Christina; Keeney, Allen; Wigal, Carl T.; Johnston, Cynthia R.; Cornelius, Richard D.
1997-01-01
Sunscreens and their SPF (Sun Protection Factor) values are the focus of this experiment that includes spectrophotometric measurements and molecular modeling. Students suspend weighed amounts of sunscreen lotions graded SPF 4, 6, 8, 15, 30, and 45 in water and dissolve aliquots of the aqueous suspensions in propanol. The expected relationship of absorbance proportional to log10(SPF) applies at 312 nm where a maximum in absorbance occurs for the sunscreen solutions. Results at 330 nm give similar results and are more accessible using spectrometers routinely available in the introductory laboratory. Sunscreens constitute a suitable class of compounds to use for modeling electronic spectra, and using the computer for the active ingredients ethylhexyl para-methoxycinnamate, oxybenzone, 2-ethylhexyl salicylate, and octocrylene found in commercially available formulations typically predicts the absorption maxima within 10 nm. This experiment lets students explore which compounds have the potential to function as sunscreen agents and thereby see the importance of a knowledge of chemistry to the formulation of household items.
Two models of minimalist, incremental syntactic analysis.
Stabler, Edward P
2013-07-01
Minimalist grammars (MGs) and multiple context-free grammars (MCFGs) are weakly equivalent in the sense that they define the same languages, a large mildly context-sensitive class that properly includes context-free languages. But in addition, for each MG, there is an MCFG which is strongly equivalent in the sense that it defines the same language with isomorphic derivations. However, the structure-building rules of MGs but not MCFGs are defined in a way that generalizes across categories. Consequently, MGs can be exponentially more succinct than their MCFG equivalents, and this difference shows in parsing models too. An incremental, top-down beam parser for MGs is defined here, sound and complete for all MGs, and hence also capable of parsing all MCFG languages. But since the parser represents its grammar transparently, the relative succinctness of MGs is again evident. Although the determinants of MG structure are narrowly and discretely defined, probabilistic influences from a much broader domain can influence even the earliest analytic steps, allowing frequency and context effects to come early and from almost anywhere, as expected in incremental models. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Model based analysis of piezoelectric transformers.
Hemsel, T; Priya, S
2006-12-22
Piezoelectric transformers are increasingly getting popular in the electrical devices owing to several advantages such as small size, high efficiency, no electromagnetic noise and non-flammable. In addition to the conventional applications such as ballast for back light inverter in notebook computers, camera flash, and fuel ignition several new applications have emerged such as AC/DC converter, battery charger and automobile lighting. These new applications demand high power density and wide range of voltage gain. Currently, the transformer power density is limited to 40 W/cm(3) obtained at low voltage gain. The purpose of this study was to investigate a transformer design that has the potential of providing higher power density and wider range of voltage gain. The new transformer design utilizes radial mode both at the input and output port and has the unidirectional polarization in the ceramics. This design was found to provide 30 W power with an efficiency of 98% and 30 degrees C temperature rise from the room temperature. An electro-mechanical equivalent circuit model was developed to describe the characteristics of the piezoelectric transformer. The model was found to successfully predict the characteristics of the transformer. Excellent matching was found between the computed and experimental results. The results of this study will allow to deterministically design unipoled piezoelectric transformers with specified performance. It is expected that in near future the unipoled transformer will gain significant importance in various electrical components.
Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses
Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus
2017-06-01
Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.
Structural model analysis of multiple quantitative traits.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Renhua Li
2006-07-01
Full Text Available We introduce a method for the analysis of multilocus, multitrait genetic data that provides an intuitive and precise characterization of genetic architecture. We show that it is possible to infer the magnitude and direction of causal relationships among multiple correlated phenotypes and illustrate the technique using body composition and bone density data from mouse intercross populations. Using these techniques we are able to distinguish genetic loci that affect adiposity from those that affect overall body size and thus reveal a shortcoming of standardized measures such as body mass index that are widely used in obesity research. The identification of causal networks sheds light on the nature of genetic heterogeneity and pleiotropy in complex genetic systems.
Latent class models in financial data analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Attilio Gardini
2007-10-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with optimal international portfolio choice by developing a latent class approach based on the distinction between international and non-international investors. On the basis of micro data, we analyze the effects of many social, demographic, economic and financial characteristics on the probability to be an international investor. Traditional measures of equity home bias do not allow for the existence of international investment rationing operators. On the contrary, by resorting to latent class analysis it is possible to detect the unobservable distinction between international investors and investors who are precluded from operating into international financial markets and, therefore, to evaluate the role of these unobservable constraints on equity home bias.
Sensitivity of SBLOCA analysis to model nodalization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, C.; Ito, T.; Abramson, P.B.
1983-01-01
The recent Semiscale test S-UT-8 indicates the possibility for primary liquid to hang up in the steam generators during a SBLOCA, permitting core uncovery prior to loop-seal clearance. In analysis of Small Break Loss of Coolant Accidents with RELAP5, it is found that resultant transient behavior is quite sensitive to the selection of nodalization for the steam generators. Although global parameters such as integrated mass loss, primary inventory and primary pressure are relatively insensitive to the nodalization, it is found that the predicted distribution of inventory around the primary is significantly affected by nodalization. More detailed nodalization predicts that more of the inventory tends to remain in the steam generators, resulting in less inventory in the reactor vessel and therefore causing earlier and more severe core uncovery
Modeling and Exergy Analysis of District Cooling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nguyen, Chan
in the gas cooler, pinch temperature in the evaporator and effectiveness of the IHX. These results are complemented by the exergy analysis, where the exergy destruction ratio of the CO2 system’s component is found. Heat recovery from vapour compression heat pumps has been investigated. The heat is to be used...... consists of a combined heat and power (CHP) plant with a separate refrigeration plant, where its condenser heat is rejected to the environment. The recovery system consists of the same CHP plant but with a heat pump, where the condensation heat is recovered. Five different refrigerants (R717, R600a, R290...... and surrounding temperature has been carried out. It has been demonstrated that the two methods yield significantly different results. Energy costing prices the unit cost of heating and cooling equally independent of the quality of the heat transfer, and it tends to overprice the cost of cooling in an irrational...
Versatile Micromechanics Model for Multiscale Analysis of Composite Structures
Kwon, Y. W.; Park, M. S.
2013-08-01
A general-purpose micromechanics model was developed so that the model could be applied to various composite materials such as reinforced by particles, long fibers and short fibers as well as those containing micro voids. Additionally, the model can be used with hierarchical composite materials. The micromechanics model can be used to compute effective material properties like elastic moduli, shear moduli, Poisson's ratios, and coefficients of thermal expansion for the various composite materials. The model can also calculate the strains and stresses at the constituent material level such as fibers, particles, and whiskers from the composite level stresses and strains. The model was implemented into ABAQUS using the UMAT option for multiscale analysis. An extensive set of examples are presented to demonstrate the reliability and accuracy of the developed micromechanics model for different kinds of composite materials. Another set of examples is provided to study the multiscale analysis of composite structures.
Analysis of A Virus Dynamics Model
Zhang, Baolin; Li, Jianquan; Li, Jia; Zhao, Xin
2018-03-01
In order to more accurately characterize the virus infection in the host, a virus dynamics model with latency and virulence is established and analyzed in this paper. The positivity and boundedness of the solution are proved. After obtaining the basic reproduction number and the existence of infected equilibrium, the Lyapunov method and the LaSalle invariance principle are used to determine the stability of the uninfected equilibrium and infected equilibrium by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. We prove that, when the basic reproduction number does not exceed 1, the uninfected equilibrium is globally stable, the virus can be cleared eventually; when the basic reproduction number is more than 1, the infected equilibrium is globally stable, the virus will persist in the host at a certain level. The effect of virulence and latency on infection is also discussed.
Analysis and modeling of rail maintenance costs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amir Ali Bakhshi
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Railroad maintenance engineering plays an important role on availability of roads and reducing the cost of railroad incidents. Rail is of the most important parts of railroad industry, which needs regular maintenance since it covers a significant part of total maintenance cost. Any attempt on optimizing total cost of maintenance could substantially reduce the cost of railroad system and it can reduce total cost of the industry. The paper presents a new method to estimate the cost of rail failure using different cost components such as cost of inspection and cost of risk associated with possible accidents. The proposed model of this paper is used for a real-world case study of railroad transportation of Tehran region and the results have been analyzed.
Expatriates Selection: An Essay of Model Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rui Bártolo-Ribeiro
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The business expansion to other geographical areas with different cultures from which organizations were created and developed leads to the expatriation of employees to these destinations. Recruitment and selection procedures of expatriates do not always have the intended success leading to an early return of these professionals with the consequent organizational disorders. In this study, several articles published in the last five years were analyzed in order to identify the most frequently mentioned dimensions in the selection of expatriates in terms of success and failure. The characteristics in the selection process that may increase prediction of adaptation of expatriates to new cultural contexts of the some organization were studied according to the KSAOs model. Few references were found concerning Knowledge, Skills and Abilities dimensions in the analyzed papers. There was a strong predominance on the evaluation of Other Characteristics, and was given more importance to dispositional factors than situational factors for promoting the integration of the expatriates.
Parametric analysis of fire model CFAST
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Y. H.; Yang, J. Y.; Kim, J. H.
2004-01-01
This paper describes the pump room fire of the nuclear power plant using CFAST fire modeling code developed by NIST. It is determined by the constrained or unconstrained fire, Lower Oxygen Limit (LOL), Radiative Fraction (RF), and the times to open doors, which are the input parameters of CAFST. According to the results, pump room fire is ventilation-controlled fire, so it is adequate that the value of LOL is 10% which is also the default value. It is appeared that the RF does not change the temperature of the upper gas layer. But the level of opening of the penetrating area and the times to opening it have an effect on the temperature of the upper layer, so it is determined that the results of it should be carefully analyzed
Modeling and analysis with induction generators
Simões, M Godoy
2014-01-01
ForewordPrefaceAcknowledgmentsAuthorsPrinciples of Alternative Sources of Energy and Electric GenerationScope of This ChapterLegal DefinitionsPrinciples of Electrical ConversionBasic Definitions of Electrical PowerCharacteristics of Primary SourcesCharacteristics of Remote Industrial, Commercial, and Residential Sites and Rural EnergySelection of the Electric GeneratorInterfacing Primary Source, Generator, and LoadExample of a Simple Integrated Generating and Energy-Storing SystemSolved ProblemsSuggested ProblemsReferencesSteady-State Model of Induction GeneratorsScope of This ChapterInterconnection and Disconnection of the Electric Distribution NetworkRobustness of Induction GeneratorsClassical Steady-State Representation of the Asynchronous MachineGenerated PowerInduced TorqueRepresentation of Induction Generator LossesMeasurement of Induction Generator ParametersBlocked Rotor Test (s = 1)No-Load Test (s = 0)Features of Induction Machines Working as Generators Interconnected to the Distribution NetworkHigh-...
Materials Analysis and Modeling of Underfill Materials.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wyatt, Nicholas B [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chambers, Robert S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-08-01
The thermal-mechanical properties of three potential underfill candidate materials for PBGA applications are characterized and reported. Two of the materials are a formulations developed at Sandia for underfill applications while the third is a commercial product that utilizes a snap-cure chemistry to drastically reduce cure time. Viscoelastic models were calibrated and fit using the property data collected for one of the Sandia formulated materials. Along with the thermal-mechanical analyses performed, a series of simple bi-material strip tests were conducted to comparatively analyze the relative effects of cure and thermal shrinkage amongst the materials under consideration. Finally, current knowledge gaps as well as questions arising from the present study are identified and a path forward presented.
A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models
Boas, Sonja E. M.
2015-11-21
Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.
A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.
Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G
2015-11-21
Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.
How Many Separable Sources? Model Selection In Independent Components Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Woods, Roger P.; Hansen, Lars Kai; Strother, Stephen
2015-01-01
among potential model categories with differing numbers of Gaussian components. Based on simulation studies, the assumptions and approximations underlying the Akaike Information Criterion do not hold in this setting, even with a very large number of observations. Cross-validation is a suitable, though....../Principal Components Analysis (mixed ICA/PCA) model described here accommodates one or more Gaussian components in the independent components analysis model and uses principal components analysis to characterize contributions from this inseparable Gaussian subspace. Information theory can then be used to select from...... might otherwise be questionable. Failure of the Akaike Information Criterion in model selection also has relevance in traditional independent components analysis where all sources are assumed non-Gaussian....
comparative analysis of some existing kinetic models with proposed
African Journals Online (AJOL)
IGNATIUS NWIDI
two statistical parameters namely; linear regression coefficient of correlation (R2) and ... Keynotes: Heavy metals, Biosorption, Kinetics Models, Comparative analysis, Average Relative Error. 1. ... If the flow rate is low, a simple manual batch.
sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study .... organizations and specific projects needs based. Life-cycle ... developed and completed urban road infrastructure corridor ...
Stability Analysis of a Reaction-Diffusion System Modeling Atherogenesis
Ibragimov, Akif; Ritter, Laura; Walton, Jay R.
2010-01-01
This paper presents a linear, asymptotic stability analysis for a reaction-diffusionconvection system modeling atherogenesis, the initiation of atherosclerosis, as an inflammatory instability. Motivated by the disease paradigm articulated by Ross
Modeling, Analysis, Simulation, and Synthesis of Biomolecular Networks
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Ruben, Harvey; Kumar, Vijay; Sokolsky, Oleg
2006-01-01
...) a first example of reachability analysis applied to a biomolecular system (lactose induction), 4) a model of tetracycline resistance that discriminates between two possible mechanisms for tetracycline diffusion through the cell membrane, and 5...
Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program (STARMAP)
Federal Laboratory Consortium — Colorado State University has received funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for its Space-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program...
Analysis of the resolution processes of three modeling tasks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cèsar Gallart Palau
2017-08-01
Full Text Available In this paper we present a comparative analysis of the resolution process of three modeling tasks performed by secondary education students (13-14 years, designed from three different points of view: The Modelling-eliciting Activities, the LEMA project, and the Realistic Mathematical Problems. The purpose of this analysis is to obtain a methodological characterization of them in order to provide to secondary education teachers a proper selection and sequencing of tasks for their implementation in the classroom.
Neutrosophic Logic for Mental Model Elicitation and Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Karina Pérez-Teruel
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Mental models are personal, internal representations of external reality that people use to interact with the world around them. They are useful in multiple situations such as muticriteria decision making, knowledge management, complex system learning and analysis. In this paper a framework for mental models elicitation and analysis based on neutrosophic Logic is presented. An illustrative example is provided to show the applicability of the proposal. The paper ends with conclusion future research directions.
Trojan detection model based on network behavior analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Junrong; Liu Baoxu; Wang Wenjin
2012-01-01
Based on the analysis of existing Trojan detection technology, this paper presents a Trojan detection model based on network behavior analysis. First of all, we abstract description of the Trojan network behavior, then according to certain rules to establish the characteristic behavior library, and then use the support vector machine algorithm to determine whether a Trojan invasion. Finally, through the intrusion detection experiments, shows that this model can effectively detect Trojans. (authors)
Integrated dynamic modeling and management system mission analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, A.K.
1994-12-28
This document summarizes the mission analysis performed on the Integrated Dynamic Modeling and Management System (IDMMS). The IDMMS will be developed to provide the modeling and analysis capability required to understand the TWRS system behavior in terms of the identified TWRS performance measures. The IDMMS will be used to demonstrate in a verified and validated manner the satisfactory performance of the TWRS system configuration and assurance that the requirements have been satisfied.
Building Information Modeling (BIM) for Indoor Environmental Performance Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
The report is a part of a research assignment carried out by students in the 5ETCS course “Project Byggeri – [entitled as: Building Information Modeling (BIM) – Modeling & Analysis]”, during the 3rd semester of master degree in Civil and Architectural Engineering, Department of Engineering, Aarhus...... University. This includes seven papers describing BIM for Sustainability, concentrating specifically on individual topics regarding to Indoor Environment Performance Analysis....
Integrated dynamic modeling and management system mission analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, A.K.
1994-01-01
This document summarizes the mission analysis performed on the Integrated Dynamic Modeling and Management System (IDMMS). The IDMMS will be developed to provide the modeling and analysis capability required to understand the TWRS system behavior in terms of the identified TWRS performance measures. The IDMMS will be used to demonstrate in a verified and validated manner the satisfactory performance of the TWRS system configuration and assurance that the requirements have been satisfied
Coping with Complexity Model Reduction and Data Analysis
Gorban, Alexander N
2011-01-01
This volume contains the extended version of selected talks given at the international research workshop 'Coping with Complexity: Model Reduction and Data Analysis', Ambleside, UK, August 31 - September 4, 2009. This book is deliberately broad in scope and aims at promoting new ideas and methodological perspectives. The topics of the chapters range from theoretical analysis of complex and multiscale mathematical models to applications in e.g., fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics.
Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad
2014-01-01
they breakdown costs. This is followed by an in depth analysis of stakeholders’ needs for financial information derived from the 4C project stakeholder consultation.The stakeholders’ needs analysis indicated that models should:• support accounting, but more importantly they should enable budgeting• be able......his report ’D3.1—Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis’ provides an analysis of existing research related to the economics of digital curation and cost & benefit modelling. It reports upon the investigation of how well current models and tools meet stakeholders’ needs for calculating...... andcomparing financial information. Based on this evaluation, it aims to point out gaps that need to be bridged in order to increase the uptake of cost & benefit modelling and good practices that will enable costing and comparison of the costs of alternative scenarios—which in turn provides a starting point...
Similar words analysis based on POS-CBOW language model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dongru RUAN
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Similar words analysis is one of the important aspects in the field of natural language processing, and it has important research and application values in text classification, machine translation and information recommendation. Focusing on the features of Sina Weibo's short text, this paper presents a language model named as POS-CBOW, which is a kind of continuous bag-of-words language model with the filtering layer and part-of-speech tagging layer. The proposed approach can adjust the word vectors' similarity according to the cosine similarity and the word vectors' part-of-speech metrics. It can also filter those similar words set on the base of the statistical analysis model. The experimental result shows that the similar words analysis algorithm based on the proposed POS-CBOW language model is better than that based on the traditional CBOW language model.
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the PATHWAY radionuclide transport model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Otis, M.D.
1983-01-01
Procedures were developed for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model of radionuclide transport through human food chains. Uncertainty in model predictions was estimated by propagation of parameter uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Sensitivity of model predictions to individual parameters was investigated using the partial correlation coefficient of each parameter with model output. Random values produced for the uncertainty analysis were used in the correlation analysis for sensitivity. These procedures were applied to the PATHWAY model which predicts concentrations of radionuclides in foods grown in Nevada and Utah and exposed to fallout during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Nevada. Concentrations and time-integrated concentrations of iodine-131, cesium-136, and cesium-137 in milk and other foods were investigated. 9 figs., 13 tabs
IMAGE ANALYSIS FOR MODELLING SHEAR BEHAVIOUR
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philippe Lopez
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Through laboratory research performed over the past ten years, many of the critical links between fracture characteristics and hydromechanical and mechanical behaviour have been made for individual fractures. One of the remaining challenges at the laboratory scale is to directly link fracture morphology of shear behaviour with changes in stress and shear direction. A series of laboratory experiments were performed on cement mortar replicas of a granite sample with a natural fracture perpendicular to the axis of the core. Results show that there is a strong relationship between the fracture's geometry and its mechanical behaviour under shear stress and the resulting damage. Image analysis, geostatistical, stereological and directional data techniques are applied in combination to experimental data. The results highlight the role of geometric characteristics of the fracture surfaces (surface roughness, size, shape, locations and orientations of asperities to be damaged in shear behaviour. A notable improvement in shear understanding is that shear behaviour is controlled by the apparent dip in the shear direction of elementary facets forming the fracture.
Model Construction and Analysis of Respiration in Halobacterium salinarum.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cherryl O Talaue
Full Text Available The archaeon Halobacterium salinarum can produce energy using three different processes, namely photosynthesis, oxidative phosphorylation and fermentation of arginine, and is thus a model organism in bioenergetics. Compared to its bacteriorhodopsin-driven photosynthesis, less attention has been devoted to modeling its respiratory pathway. We created a system of ordinary differential equations that models its oxidative phosphorylation. The model consists of the electron transport chain, the ATP synthase, the potassium uniport and the sodium-proton antiport. By fitting the model parameters to experimental data, we show that the model can explain data on proton motive force generation, ATP production, and the charge balancing of ions between the sodium-proton antiporter and the potassium uniport. We performed sensitivity analysis of the model parameters to determine how the model will respond to perturbations in parameter values. The model and the parameters we derived provide a resource that can be used for analytical studies of the bioenergetics of H. salinarum.
Model Construction and Analysis of Respiration in Halobacterium salinarum.
Talaue, Cherryl O; del Rosario, Ricardo C H; Pfeiffer, Friedhelm; Mendoza, Eduardo R; Oesterhelt, Dieter
2016-01-01
The archaeon Halobacterium salinarum can produce energy using three different processes, namely photosynthesis, oxidative phosphorylation and fermentation of arginine, and is thus a model organism in bioenergetics. Compared to its bacteriorhodopsin-driven photosynthesis, less attention has been devoted to modeling its respiratory pathway. We created a system of ordinary differential equations that models its oxidative phosphorylation. The model consists of the electron transport chain, the ATP synthase, the potassium uniport and the sodium-proton antiport. By fitting the model parameters to experimental data, we show that the model can explain data on proton motive force generation, ATP production, and the charge balancing of ions between the sodium-proton antiporter and the potassium uniport. We performed sensitivity analysis of the model parameters to determine how the model will respond to perturbations in parameter values. The model and the parameters we derived provide a resource that can be used for analytical studies of the bioenergetics of H. salinarum.
Folding model analysis of alpha radioactivity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Basu, D N
2003-01-01
Radioactive decay of nuclei via emission of α-particles has been studied theoretically in the framework of a superasymmetric fission model using the double folding (DF) procedure for obtaining the α-nucleus interaction potential. The DF nuclear potential has been obtained by folding in the density distribution functions of the α nucleus and the daughter nucleus with a realistic effective interaction. The M3Y effective interaction has been used for calculating the nuclear interaction potential which has been supplemented by a zero-range pseudo-potential for exchange along with the density dependence. The nuclear microscopic α-nucleus potential thus obtained has been used along with the Coulomb interaction potential to calculate the action integral within the WKB approximation. This subsequently yields calculations for the half-lives of α decays of nuclei. The density dependence and the exchange effects have not been found to be very significant. These calculations provide reasonable estimates for the lifetimes of α-radioactivity of nuclei
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
1995-01-01
This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model for
Topic Modeling in Sentiment Analysis: A Systematic Review
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Toqir Ahmad Rana
2016-06-01
Full Text Available With the expansion and acceptance of Word Wide Web, sentiment analysis has become progressively popular research area in information retrieval and web data analysis. Due to the huge amount of user-generated contents over blogs, forums, social media, etc., sentiment analysis has attracted researchers both in academia and industry, since it deals with the extraction of opinions and sentiments. In this paper, we have presented a review of topic modeling, especially LDA-based techniques, in sentiment analysis. We have presented a detailed analysis of diverse approaches and techniques, and compared the accuracy of different systems among them. The results of different approaches have been summarized, analyzed and presented in a sophisticated fashion. This is the really effort to explore different topic modeling techniques in the capacity of sentiment analysis and imparting a comprehensive comparison among them.
Mixed waste treatment model: Basis and analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Palmer, B.A.
1995-09-01
The Department of Energy's Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) required treatment system capacities for risk and cost calculation. Los Alamos was tasked with providing these capacities to the PEIS team. This involved understanding the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex waste, making the necessary changes to correct for problems, categorizing the waste for treatment, and determining the treatment system requirements. The treatment system requirements depended on the incoming waste, which varied for each PEIS case. The treatment system requirements also depended on the type of treatment that was desired. Because different groups contributing to the PEIS needed specific types of results, we provided the treatment system requirements in a variety of forms. In total, some 40 data files were created for the TRU cases, and for the MLLW case, there were 105 separate data files. Each data file represents one treatment case consisting of the selected waste from various sites, a selected treatment system, and the reporting requirements for such a case. The treatment system requirements in their most basic form are the treatment process rates for unit operations in the desired treatment system, based on a 10-year working life and 20-year accumulation of the waste. These results were reported in cubic meters and for the MLLW case, in kilograms as well. The treatment system model consisted of unit operations that are linked together. Each unit operation's function depended on the input waste streams, waste matrix, and contaminants. Each unit operation outputs one or more waste streams whose matrix, contaminants, and volume/mass may have changed as a result of the treatment. These output streams are then routed to the appropriate unit operation for additional treatment until the output waste stream meets the treatment requirements for disposal. The total waste for each unit operation was calculated as well as the waste for each matrix treated by the unit
Domain Endurants: An Analysis and Description Process Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bjørner, Dines
2014-01-01
We present a summary, Sect. 2, of a structure of domain analysis and description concepts: techniques and tools. And we link, in Sect. 3, these concepts, embodied in domain analysis prompts and domain description prompts, in a model of how a diligent domain analyser cum describer would use them. We...
Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker
2015-01-01
This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...
Representing the Past by Solid Modeling + Golden Ratio Analysis
Ding, Suining
2008-01-01
This paper describes the procedures of reconstructing ancient architecture using solid modeling with geometric analysis, especially the Golden Ratio analysis. In the past the recovery and reconstruction of ruins required bringing together fragments of evidence and vast amount of measurements from archaeological site. Although researchers and…
NMR and modelling techniques in structural and conformation analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abraham, R J [Liverpool Univ. (United Kingdom)
1994-12-31
The use of Lanthanide Induced Shifts (L.I.S.) and modelling techniques in conformational analysis is presented. The use of Co{sup III} porphyrins as shift reagents is discussed, with examples of their use in the conformational analysis of some heterocyclic amines. (author) 13 refs., 9 figs.
Product Lifecycle Management Architecture: A Model Based Systems Engineering Analysis.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Noonan, Nicholas James [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-07-01
This report is an analysis of the Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) program. The analysis is centered on a need statement generated by a Nuclear Weapons (NW) customer. The need statement captured in this report creates an opportunity for the PLM to provide a robust service as a solution. Lifecycles for both the NW and PLM are analyzed using Model Based System Engineering (MBSE).
MMA, A Computer Code for Multi-Model Analysis
Poeter, Eileen P.; Hill, Mary C.
2007-01-01
This report documents the Multi-Model Analysis (MMA) computer code. MMA can be used to evaluate results from alternative models of a single system using the same set of observations for all models. As long as the observations, the observation weighting, and system being represented are the same, the models can differ in nearly any way imaginable. For example, they may include different processes, different simulation software, different temporal definitions (for example, steady-state and transient models could be considered), and so on. The multiple models need to be calibrated by nonlinear regression. Calibration of the individual models needs to be completed before application of MMA. MMA can be used to rank models and calculate posterior model probabilities. These can be used to (1) determine the relative importance of the characteristics embodied in the alternative models, (2) calculate model-averaged parameter estimates and predictions, and (3) quantify the uncertainty of parameter estimates and predictions in a way that integrates the variations represented by the alternative models. There is a lack of consensus on what model analysis methods are best, so MMA provides four default methods. Two are based on Kullback-Leibler information, and use the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) or AICc (second-order-bias-corrected AIC) model discrimination criteria. The other two default methods are the BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) and the KIC (Kashyap Information Criterion) model discrimination criteria. Use of the KIC criterion is equivalent to using the maximum-likelihood Bayesian model averaging (MLBMA) method. AIC, AICc, and BIC can be derived from Frequentist or Bayesian arguments. The default methods based on Kullback-Leibler information have a number of theoretical advantages, including that they tend to favor more complicated models as more data become available than do the other methods, which makes sense in many situations. Many applications of MMA will
Stability Analysis for Car Following Model Based on Control Theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meng Xiang-Pei; Li Zhi-Peng; Ge Hong-Xia
2014-01-01
Stability analysis is one of the key issues in car-following theory. The stability analysis with Lyapunov function for the two velocity difference car-following model (for short, TVDM) is conducted and the control method to suppress traffic congestion is introduced. Numerical simulations are given and results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)
Development of local TDC model in core thermal hydraulic analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kwon, H.S.; Park, J.R.; Hwang, D.H.; Lee, S.K.
2004-01-01
The local TDC model consisting of natural mixing and forced mixing part was developed to obtain more realistic local fluid properties in the core subchannel analysis. To evaluate the performance of local TDC model, the CHF prediction capability was tested with the various CHF correlations and local fluid properties at CHF location which are based on the local TDC model. The results show that the standard deviation of measured to predicted CHF ratio (M/P) based on local TDC model can be reduced by about 7% compared to those based on global TDC model when the CHF correlation has no term to account for distance from the spacer grid. (author)
Practical Soil-Shallow Foundation Model for Nonlinear Structural Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Moussa Leblouba
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Soil-shallow foundation interaction models that are incorporated into most structural analysis programs generally lack accuracy and efficiency or neglect some aspects of foundation behavior. For instance, soil-shallow foundation systems have been observed to show both small and large loops under increasing amplitude load reversals. This paper presents a practical macroelement model for soil-shallow foundation system and its stability under simultaneous horizontal and vertical loads. The model comprises three spring elements: nonlinear horizontal, nonlinear rotational, and linear vertical springs. The proposed macroelement model was verified using experimental test results from large-scale model foundations subjected to small and large cyclic loading cases.
Development of interpretation models for PFN uranium log analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barnard, R.W.
1980-11-01
This report presents the models for interpretation of borehole logs for the PFN (Prompt Fission Neutron) uranium logging system. Two models have been developed, the counts-ratio model and the counts/dieaway model. Both are empirically developed, but can be related to the theoretical bases for PFN analysis. The models try to correct for the effects of external factors (such as probe or formation parameters) in the calculation of uranium grade. The theoretical bases and calculational techniques for estimating uranium concentration from raw PFN data and other parameters are discussed. Examples and discussions of borehole logs are included
Hidden-Markov-Model Analysis Of Telemanipulator Data
Hannaford, Blake; Lee, Paul
1991-01-01
Mathematical model and procedure based on hidden-Markov-model concept undergoing development for use in analysis and prediction of outputs of force and torque sensors of telerobotic manipulators. In model, overall task broken down into subgoals, and transition probabilities encode ease with which operator completes each subgoal. Process portion of model encodes task-sequence/subgoal structure, and probability-density functions for forces and torques associated with each state of manipulation encode sensor signals that one expects to observe at subgoal. Parameters of model constructed from engineering knowledge of task.
Standard model for safety analysis report of fuel fabrication plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1980-09-01
A standard model for a safety analysis report of fuel fabrication plants is established. This model shows the presentation format, the origin, and the details of the minimal information required by CNEN (Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear) aiming to evaluate the requests of construction permits and operation licenses made according to the legislation in force. (E.G.) [pt
Standard model for safety analysis report of fuel reprocessing plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1979-12-01
A standard model for a safety analysis report of fuel reprocessing plants is established. This model shows the presentation format, the origin, and the details of the minimal information required by CNEN (Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear) aiming to evaluate the requests of construction permits and operation licenses made according to the legislation in force. (E.G.) [pt
Stochastic processes analysis in nuclear reactor using ARMA models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zavaljevski, N.
1990-01-01
The analysis of ARMA model derived from general stochastic state equations of nuclear reactor is given. The dependence of ARMA model parameters on the main physical characteristics of RB nuclear reactor in Vinca is presented. Preliminary identification results are presented, observed discrepancies between theory and experiment are explained and the possibilities of identification improvement are anticipated. (author)
Numerical equilibrium analysis for structured consumer resource models
de Roos, A.M.; Diekmann, O.; Getto, P.; Kirkilionis, M.A.
2010-01-01
In this paper, we present methods for a numerical equilibrium and stability analysis for models of a size structured population competing for an unstructured re- source. We concentrate on cases where two model parameters are free, and thus existence boundaries for equilibria and stability boundaries
Numerical equilibrium analysis for structured consumer resource models
de Roos, A.M.; Diekmann, O.; Getto, P.; Kirkilionis, M.A.
2010-01-01
In this paper, we present methods for a numerical equilibrium and stability analysis for models of a size structured population competing for an unstructured resource. We concentrate on cases where two model parameters are free, and thus existence boundaries for equilibria and stability boundaries
A Modeling Framework for Schedulability Analysis of Distributed Avionics Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Han, Pujie; Zhai, Zhengjun; Nielsen, Brian
2018-01-01
This paper presents a modeling framework for schedulability analysis of distributed integrated modular avionics (DIMA) systems that consist of spatially distributed ARINC-653 modules connected by a unified AFDX network. We model a DIMA system as a set of stopwatch automata (SWA) in UPPAAL...
Mathematical Modelling Research in Turkey: A Content Analysis Study
Çelik, H. Coskun
2017-01-01
The aim of the present study was to examine the mathematical modelling studies done between 2004 and 2015 in Turkey and to reveal their tendencies. Forty-nine studies were selected using purposeful sampling based on the term, "mathematical modelling" with Higher Education Academic Search Engine. They were analyzed with content analysis.…
The Use of Modelling for Theory Building in Qualitative Analysis
Briggs, Ann R. J.
2007-01-01
The purpose of this article is to exemplify and enhance the place of modelling as a qualitative process in educational research. Modelling is widely used in quantitative research as a tool for analysis, theory building and prediction. Statistical data lend themselves to graphical representation of values, interrelationships and operational…
Identification of human operator performance models utilizing time series analysis
Holden, F. M.; Shinners, S. M.
1973-01-01
The results of an effort performed by Sperry Systems Management Division for AMRL in applying time series analysis as a tool for modeling the human operator are presented. This technique is utilized for determining the variation of the human transfer function under various levels of stress. The human operator's model is determined based on actual input and output data from a tracking experiment.
Biological sequence analysis: probabilistic models of proteins and nucleic acids
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Durbin, Richard
1998-01-01
... analysis methods are now based on principles of probabilistic modelling. Examples of such methods include the use of probabilistically derived score matrices to determine the signiﬁcance of sequence alignments, the use of hidden Markov models as the basis for proﬁle searches to identify distant members of sequence families, and the inference...
A Mathematical Model for Analysis on Ships Collision Avoidance ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This study develops a mathematical model for analysis on collision avoidance of ships. The obtained model provides information on the quantitative effect of the ship's engine's response and the applied reversing force on separation distance and stopping abilities of the ships. Appropriate evasive maneuvers require the ...
Modeling and Performance Analysis of Manufacturing Systems in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Modeling and Performance Analysis of Manufacturing Systems in Footwear Industry. ... researcher to experiment with different variables and controls the manufacturing process ... In this study Arena simulation software is employed to model and measure ... for Authors · for Policy Makers · about Open Access · Journal Quality.
Stability analysis for a general age-dependent vaccination model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El Doma, M.
1995-05-01
An SIR epidemic model of a general age-dependent vaccination model is investigated when the fertility, mortality and removal rates depends on age. We give threshold criteria of the existence of equilibriums and perform stability analysis. Furthermore a critical vaccination coverage that is sufficient to eradicate the disease is determined. (author). 12 refs
Bayesian uncertainty analysis with applications to turbulence modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cheung, Sai Hung; Oliver, Todd A.; Prudencio, Ernesto E.; Prudhomme, Serge; Moser, Robert D.
2011-01-01
In this paper, we apply Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques to the processes of calibrating complex mathematical models and predicting quantities of interest (QoI's) with such models. These techniques also enable the systematic comparison of competing model classes. The processes of calibration and comparison constitute the building blocks of a larger validation process, the goal of which is to accept or reject a given mathematical model for the prediction of a particular QoI for a particular scenario. In this work, we take the first step in this process by applying the methodology to the analysis of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model in the context of incompressible, boundary layer flows. Three competing model classes based on the Spalart-Allmaras model are formulated, calibrated against experimental data, and used to issue a prediction with quantified uncertainty. The model classes are compared in terms of their posterior probabilities and their prediction of QoI's. The model posterior probability represents the relative plausibility of a model class given the data. Thus, it incorporates the model's ability to fit experimental observations. Alternatively, comparing models using the predicted QoI connects the process to the needs of decision makers that use the results of the model. We show that by using both the model plausibility and predicted QoI, one has the opportunity to reject some model classes after calibration, before subjecting the remaining classes to additional validation challenges.
Regression analysis of a chemical reaction fouling model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vasak, F.; Epstein, N.
1996-01-01
A previously reported mathematical model for the initial chemical reaction fouling of a heated tube is critically examined in the light of the experimental data for which it was developed. A regression analysis of the model with respect to that data shows that the reference point upon which the two adjustable parameters of the model were originally based was well chosen, albeit fortuitously. (author). 3 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs
Evolution analysis of the states of the EZ model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qing-Hua, Chen; Yi-Ming, Ding; Hong-Guang, Dong
2009-01-01
Based on suitable choice of states, this paper studies the stability of the equilibrium state of the EZ model by regarding the evolution of the EZ model as a Markov chain and by showing that the Markov chain is ergodic. The Markov analysis is applied to the EZ model with small number of agents, the exact equilibrium state for N = 5 and numerical results for N = 18 are obtained. (cross-disciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)
Analysis of organizational culture with social network models
Titov, S.
2015-01-01
Organizational culture is nowadays an object of numerous scientific papers. However, only marginal part of existing research attempts to use the formal models of organizational cultures. The lack of organizational culture models significantly limits the further research in this area and restricts the application of the theory to practice of organizational culture change projects. The article consists of general views on potential application of network models and social network analysis to th...
SOA Modeling Patterns for Service Oriented Discovery and Analysis
Bell, Michael
2010-01-01
Learn the essential tools for developing a sound service-oriented architecture. SOA Modeling Patterns for Service-Oriented Discovery and Analysis introduces a universal, easy-to-use, and nimble SOA modeling language to facilitate the service identification and examination life cycle stage. This business and technological vocabulary will benefit your service development endeavors and foster organizational software asset reuse and consolidation, and reduction of expenditure. Whether you are a developer, business architect, technical architect, modeler, business analyst, team leader, or manager,
Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)
2012-01-15
Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).
Landsat analysis of tropical forest succession employing a terrain model
Barringer, T. H.; Robinson, V. B.; Coiner, J. C.; Bruce, R. C.
1980-01-01
Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data have yielded a dual classification of rain forest and shadow in an analysis of a semi-deciduous forest on Mindonoro Island, Philippines. Both a spatial terrain model, using a fifth side polynomial trend surface analysis for quantitatively estimating the general spatial variation in the data set, and a spectral terrain model, based on the MSS data, have been set up. A discriminant analysis, using both sets of data, has suggested that shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral regions and can therefore be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data.
Model order reduction techniques with applications in finite element analysis
Qu, Zu-Qing
2004-01-01
Despite the continued rapid advance in computing speed and memory the increase in the complexity of models used by engineers persists in outpacing them. Even where there is access to the latest hardware, simulations are often extremely computationally intensive and time-consuming when full-blown models are under consideration. The need to reduce the computational cost involved when dealing with high-order/many-degree-of-freedom models can be offset by adroit computation. In this light, model-reduction methods have become a major goal of simulation and modeling research. Model reduction can also ameliorate problems in the correlation of widely used finite-element analyses and test analysis models produced by excessive system complexity. Model Order Reduction Techniques explains and compares such methods focusing mainly on recent work in dynamic condensation techniques: - Compares the effectiveness of static, exact, dynamic, SEREP and iterative-dynamic condensation techniques in producing valid reduced-order mo...
ISAC: A tool for aeroservoelastic modeling and analysis
Adams, William M., Jr.; Hoadley, Sherwood Tiffany
1993-01-01
The capabilities of the Interaction of Structures, Aerodynamics, and Controls (ISAC) system of program modules is discussed. The major modeling, analysis, and data management components of ISAC are identified. Equations of motion are displayed for a Laplace-domain representation of the unsteady aerodynamic forces. Options for approximating a frequency-domain representation of unsteady aerodynamic forces with rational functions of the Laplace variable are shown. Linear time invariant state-space equations of motion that result are discussed. Model generation and analyses of stability and dynamic response characteristics are shown for an aeroelastic vehicle which illustrates some of the capabilities of ISAC as a modeling and analysis tool for aeroelastic applications.
How Many Separable Sources? Model Selection In Independent Components Analysis
Woods, Roger P.; Hansen, Lars Kai; Strother, Stephen
2015-01-01
Unlike mixtures consisting solely of non-Gaussian sources, mixtures including two or more Gaussian components cannot be separated using standard independent components analysis methods that are based on higher order statistics and independent observations. The mixed Independent Components Analysis/Principal Components Analysis (mixed ICA/PCA) model described here accommodates one or more Gaussian components in the independent components analysis model and uses principal components analysis to characterize contributions from this inseparable Gaussian subspace. Information theory can then be used to select from among potential model categories with differing numbers of Gaussian components. Based on simulation studies, the assumptions and approximations underlying the Akaike Information Criterion do not hold in this setting, even with a very large number of observations. Cross-validation is a suitable, though computationally intensive alternative for model selection. Application of the algorithm is illustrated using Fisher's iris data set and Howells' craniometric data set. Mixed ICA/PCA is of potential interest in any field of scientific investigation where the authenticity of blindly separated non-Gaussian sources might otherwise be questionable. Failure of the Akaike Information Criterion in model selection also has relevance in traditional independent components analysis where all sources are assumed non-Gaussian. PMID:25811988
Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Drainage Modeling Using Mutual Information
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chuanqi Li
2014-11-01
Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM output to its input parameters. A global parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to determine which parameters mostly affect the model simulation results. Two different methods of sensitivity analysis are applied in this study. The first one is the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC which measures nonlinear but monotonic relationships between model inputs and outputs. The second one is based on the mutual information which provides a general measure of the strength of the non-monotonic association between two variables. Both methods are based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS of the parameter space, and thus the same datasets can be used to obtain both measures of sensitivity. The utility of the PRCC and the mutual information analysis methods are illustrated by analyzing a complex SWMM model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only a few key input variables are contributing significantly to the model outputs; PRCCs and mutual information are calculated and used to determine and rank the importance of these key parameters. This study shows that the partial rank correlation coefficient and mutual information analysis can be considered effective methods for assessing the sensitivity of the SWMM model to the uncertainty in its input parameters.
Sensitivity analysis technique for application to deterministic models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ishigami, T.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Unwin, S.D.
1987-01-01
The characterization of sever accident source terms for light water reactors should include consideration of uncertainties. An important element of any uncertainty analysis is an evaluation of the sensitivity of the output probability distributions reflecting source term uncertainties to assumptions regarding the input probability distributions. Historically, response surface methods (RSMs) were developed to replace physical models using, for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for extensive calculations. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for sensitivity analysis that does not utilize RSM, but instead relies directly on the results obtained from the original computer code calculations. The merits of this approach are demonstrated by application of the proposed method to the suppression pool aerosol removal code (SPARC), and the results are compared with those obtained by sensitivity analysis with (a) the code itself, (b) a regression model, and (c) Iman's method
Dynamic data analysis modeling data with differential equations
Ramsay, James
2017-01-01
This text focuses on the use of smoothing methods for developing and estimating differential equations following recent developments in functional data analysis and building on techniques described in Ramsay and Silverman (2005) Functional Data Analysis. The central concept of a dynamical system as a buffer that translates sudden changes in input into smooth controlled output responses has led to applications of previously analyzed data, opening up entirely new opportunities for dynamical systems. The technical level has been kept low so that those with little or no exposure to differential equations as modeling objects can be brought into this data analysis landscape. There are already many texts on the mathematical properties of ordinary differential equations, or dynamic models, and there is a large literature distributed over many fields on models for real world processes consisting of differential equations. However, a researcher interested in fitting such a model to data, or a statistician interested in...
Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis using Polya tree mixture models.
Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E
2008-09-01
Summary. A common goal in meta-analysis is estimation of a single effect measure using data from several studies that are each designed to address the same scientific inquiry. Because studies are typically conducted in geographically disperse locations, recent developments in the statistical analysis of meta-analytic data involve the use of random effects models that account for study-to-study variability attributable to differences in environments, demographics, genetics, and other sources that lead to heterogeneity in populations. Stemming from asymptotic theory, study-specific summary statistics are modeled according to normal distributions with means representing latent true effect measures. A parametric approach subsequently models these latent measures using a normal distribution, which is strictly a convenient modeling assumption absent of theoretical justification. To eliminate the influence of overly restrictive parametric models on inferences, we consider a broader class of random effects distributions. We develop a novel hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric Polya tree mixture (PTM) model. We present methodology for testing the PTM versus a normal random effects model. These methods provide researchers a straightforward approach for conducting a sensitivity analysis of the normality assumption for random effects. An application involving meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies designed to characterize the association between alcohol consumption and breast cancer is presented, which together with results from simulated data highlight the performance of PTMs in the presence of nonnormality of effect measures in the source population.
Development of Wolsong Unit 2 Containment Analysis Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hoon, Choi [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jin, Ko Bong; Chan, Park Young [Hanbat National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2014-05-15
To be prepared for the full scope safety analysis of Wolsong unit 2 with modified fuel, input decks for the various objectives, which can be read by GOTHIC 7.2b(QA), are developed and tested for the steady state simulation. A detailed nodalization of 39 control volumes and 92 flow paths is constructed to determine the differential pressure across internal walls or hydrogen concentration and distribution inside containment. A lumped model with 15 control volumes and 74 flow paths has also been developed to reduce the computer run time for the assessments in which the analysis results are not sensitive to detailed thermal hydraulic distribution inside containment such as peak pressure, pressure dependent signal and radionuclide release. The input data files provide simplified representations of the geometric layout of the containment building (volumes, dimensions, flow paths, doors, panels, etc.) and the performance characteristics of the various containment subsystems. The parameter values are based on best estimate or design values for that parameter. The analysis values are determined by conservatism depending on the analysis objective and may be different for various analysis objectives. Basic input decks of Wolsong unit 2 were developed for the various analysis purposes with GOTHIC 7.2b(QA). Depend on the analysis objective, two types of models are prepared. Detailed model models each confined room in the containment as a separate node. All of the geometric data are based on the drawings of Wolsong unit 2. Developed containment models are simulating the steady state well to the designated initial condition. These base models will be used for Wolsong unit 2 in case of safety analysis of full scope is needed.
Using structural equation modeling for network meta-analysis.
Tu, Yu-Kang; Wu, Yun-Chun
2017-07-14
Network meta-analysis overcomes the limitations of traditional pair-wise meta-analysis by incorporating all available evidence into a general statistical framework for simultaneous comparisons of several treatments. Currently, network meta-analyses are undertaken either within the Bayesian hierarchical linear models or frequentist generalized linear mixed models. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a statistical method originally developed for modeling causal relations among observed and latent variables. As random effect is explicitly modeled as a latent variable in SEM, it is very flexible for analysts to specify complex random effect structure and to make linear and nonlinear constraints on parameters. The aim of this article is to show how to undertake a network meta-analysis within the statistical framework of SEM. We used an example dataset to demonstrate the standard fixed and random effect network meta-analysis models can be easily implemented in SEM. It contains results of 26 studies that directly compared three treatment groups A, B and C for prevention of first bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. We also showed that a new approach to network meta-analysis based on the technique of unrestricted weighted least squares (UWLS) method can also be undertaken using SEM. For both the fixed and random effect network meta-analysis, SEM yielded similar coefficients and confidence intervals to those reported in the previous literature. The point estimates of two UWLS models were identical to those in the fixed effect model but the confidence intervals were greater. This is consistent with results from the traditional pairwise meta-analyses. Comparing to UWLS model with common variance adjusted factor, UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor has greater confidence intervals when the heterogeneity was larger in the pairwise comparison. The UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor reflects the difference in heterogeneity within each comparison
Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2007-01-01
The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application
Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2007-01-01
The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application
Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2006-01-01
The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application
A new tool for accelerator system modeling and analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gillespie, G.H.; Hill, B.W.; Jameson, R.A.
1994-01-01
A novel computer code is being developed to generate system level designs of radiofrequency ion accelerators. The goal of the Accelerator System Model (ASM) code is to create a modeling and analysis tool that is easy to use, automates many of the initial design calculations, supports trade studies used in assessing alternate designs and yet is flexible enough to incorporate new technology concepts as they emerge. Hardware engineering parameters and beam dynamics are modeled at comparable levels of fidelity. Existing scaling models of accelerator subsystems were sued to produce a prototype of ASM (version 1.0) working within the Shell for Particle Accelerator Related Codes (SPARC) graphical user interface. A small user group has been testing and evaluating the prototype for about a year. Several enhancements and improvements are now being developed. The current version (1.1) of ASM is briefly described and an example of the modeling and analysis capabilities is illustrated
An analysis of urban collisions using an artificial intelligence model.
Mussone, L; Ferrari, A; Oneta, M
1999-11-01
Traditional studies on road accidents estimate the effect of variables (such as vehicular flows, road geometry, vehicular characteristics), and the calculation of the number of accidents. A descriptive statistical analysis of the accidents (those used in the model) over the period 1992-1995 is proposed. The paper describes an alternative method based on the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) in order to work out a model that relates to the analysis of vehicular accidents in Milan. The degree of danger of urban intersections using different scenarios is quantified by the ANN model. Methodology is the first result, which allows us to tackle the modelling of urban vehicular accidents by the innovative use of ANN. Other results deal with model outputs: intersection complexity may determine a higher accident index depending on the regulation of intersection. The highest index for running over of pedestrian occurs at non-signalised intersections at night-time.
Analysis on the crime model using dynamical approach
Mohammad, Fazliza; Roslan, Ummu'Atiqah Mohd
2017-08-01
A research is carried out to analyze a dynamical model of the spread crime system. A Simplified 2-Dimensional Model is used in this research. The objectives of this research are to investigate the stability of the model of the spread crime, to summarize the stability by using a bifurcation analysis and to study the relationship of basic reproduction number, R0 with the parameter in the model. Our results for stability of equilibrium points shows that we have two types of stability, which are asymptotically stable and saddle node. While the result for bifurcation analysis shows that the number of criminally active and incarcerated increases as we increase the value of a parameter in the model. The result for the relationship of R0 with the parameter shows that as the parameter increases, R0 increase too, and the rate of crime increase too.
An introduction to queueing theory modeling and analysis in applications
Bhat, U Narayan
2015-01-01
This introductory textbook is designed for a one-semester course on queueing theory that does not require a course on stochastic processes as a prerequisite. By integrating the necessary background on stochastic processes with the analysis of models, the work provides a sound foundational introduction to the modeling and analysis of queueing systems for a wide interdisciplinary audience of students in mathematics, statistics, and applied disciplines such as computer science, operations research, and engineering. This edition includes additional topics in methodology and applications. Key features: • An introductory chapter including a historical account of the growth of queueing theory in more than 100 years. • A modeling-based approach with emphasis on identification of models. • Rigorous treatment of the foundations of basic models commonly used in applications with appropriate references for advanced topics. • Applications in manufacturing and, computer and communication systems. • A chapter on ...
Modeling and Analysis of Reentrant Manufacturing Systems: Micro- and Macroperspectives
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fenglan He
2011-01-01
Full Text Available In order to obtain the better analysis of the multiple reentrant manufacturing systems (MRMSs, their modeling and analysis from both micro- and macroperspectives are considered. First, this paper presents the discrete event simulation models for MRMS and the corresponding algorithms are developed. In order to describe MRMS more accurately, then a modified continuum model is proposed. This continuum model takes into account the re-entrant degree of products, and its effectiveness is verified through numerical experiments. Finally, based on the discrete event simulation and the modified continuum models, a numerical example is used to analyze the MRMS. The changes in the WIP levels and outflux are also analyzed in details for multiple re-entrant supply chain networks. Meanwhile, some interesting observations are discussed.
Properties of autoregressive model in reactor noise analysis, 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yamada, Sumasu; Kishida, Kuniharu; Bekki, Keisuke.
1987-01-01
Under appropriate conditions, stochastic processes are described by the ARMA model, however, the AR model is popularly used in reactor noise analysis. Hence, the properties of AR model as an approximate representation of the ARMA model should be made clear. Here, convergence of AR-parameters and PSD of AR model were studied through numerical analysis on specific examples such as the neutron noise in subcritical reactors, and it was found that : (1) The convergence of AR-parameters and AR model PSD is governed by the ''zero nearest to the unit circle in the complex plane'' (μ -1 ,|μ| M . (3) The AR model of the neutron noise of subcritical reactors needs a large model order because of an ARMA-zero very close to unity corresponding to the decay constant of the 6-th group of delayed neutron precursors. (4) In applying AR model for system identification, much attention has to be paid to a priori unknown error as an approximate representation of the ARMA model in addition to the statistical errors. (author)
Model based process-product design and analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gani, Rafiqul
This paper gives a perspective on modelling and the important role it has within product-process design and analysis. Different modelling issues related to development and application of systematic model-based solution approaches for product-process design is discussed and the need for a hybrid...... model-based framework is highlighted. This framework should be able to manage knowledge-data, models, and associated methods and tools integrated with design work-flows and data-flows for specific product-process design problems. In particular, the framework needs to manage models of different types......, forms and complexity, together with their associated parameters. An example of a model-based system for design of chemicals based formulated products is also given....
Bayesian analysis for uncertainty estimation of a canopy transpiration model
Samanta, S.; Mackay, D. S.; Clayton, M. K.; Kruger, E. L.; Ewers, B. E.
2007-04-01
A Bayesian approach was used to fit a conceptual transpiration model to half-hourly transpiration rates for a sugar maple (Acer saccharum) stand collected over a 5-month period and probabilistically estimate its parameter and prediction uncertainties. The model used the Penman-Monteith equation with the Jarvis model for canopy conductance. This deterministic model was extended by adding a normally distributed error term. This extension enabled using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to sample the posterior parameter distributions. The residuals revealed approximate conformance to the assumption of normally distributed errors. However, minor systematic structures in the residuals at fine timescales suggested model changes that would potentially improve the modeling of transpiration. Results also indicated considerable uncertainties in the parameter and transpiration estimates. This simple methodology of uncertainty analysis would facilitate the deductive step during the development cycle of deterministic conceptual models by accounting for these uncertainties while drawing inferences from data.
Robust Linear Models for Cis-eQTL Analysis.
Rantalainen, Mattias; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Holmes, Christopher C
2015-01-01
Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) analysis enables characterisation of functional genetic variation influencing expression levels of individual genes. In outbread populations, including humans, eQTLs are commonly analysed using the conventional linear model, adjusting for relevant covariates, assuming an allelic dosage model and a Gaussian error term. However, gene expression data generally have noise that induces heavy-tailed errors relative to the Gaussian distribution and often include atypical observations, or outliers. Such departures from modelling assumptions can lead to an increased rate of type II errors (false negatives), and to some extent also type I errors (false positives). Careful model checking can reduce the risk of type-I errors but often not type II errors, since it is generally too time-consuming to carefully check all models with a non-significant effect in large-scale and genome-wide studies. Here we propose the application of a robust linear model for eQTL analysis to reduce adverse effects of deviations from the assumption of Gaussian residuals. We present results from a simulation study as well as results from the analysis of real eQTL data sets. Our findings suggest that in many situations robust models have the potential to provide more reliable eQTL results compared to conventional linear models, particularly in respect to reducing type II errors due to non-Gaussian noise. Post-genomic data, such as that generated in genome-wide eQTL studies, are often noisy and frequently contain atypical observations. Robust statistical models have the potential to provide more reliable results and increased statistical power under non-Gaussian conditions. The results presented here suggest that robust models should be considered routinely alongside other commonly used methodologies for eQTL analysis.
Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.
van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L
2017-11-27
Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Discussion of OECD LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling Benchmark
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ivanov, K.; Avramova, M.; Royer, E.; Gillford, J.
2013-01-01
The demand for best estimate calculations in nuclear reactor design and safety evaluations has increased in recent years. Uncertainty quantification has been highlighted as part of the best estimate calculations. The modelling aspects of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are to be further developed and validated on scientific grounds in support of their performance and application to multi-physics reactor simulations. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) / Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Nuclear Science Committee (NSC) has endorsed the creation of an Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (EGUAM). Within the framework of activities of EGUAM/NSC the OECD/NEA initiated the Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling for Design, Operation, and Safety Analysis of Light Water Reactor (OECD LWR UAM benchmark). The general objective of the benchmark is to propagate the predictive uncertainties of code results through complex coupled multi-physics and multi-scale simulations. The benchmark is divided into three phases with Phase I highlighting the uncertainty propagation in stand-alone neutronics calculations, while Phase II and III are focused on uncertainty analysis of reactor core and system respectively. This paper discusses the progress made in Phase I calculations, the Specifications for Phase II and the incoming challenges in defining Phase 3 exercises. The challenges of applying uncertainty quantification to complex code systems, in particular the time-dependent coupled physics models are the large computational burden and the utilization of non-linear models (expected due to the physics coupling). (authors)
Static analysis of a Model of the LDL degradation pathway
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pilegaard, Henrik; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis
2005-01-01
BioAmbients is a derivative of mobile ambients that has shown promise of describing interesting features of the behaviour of biological systems. As for other ambient calculi static program analysis can be used to compute safe approximations of the behavior of modelled systems. We use these tools ...... to model and analyse the production of cholesterol in living cells and show that we are able to pinpoint the difference in behaviour between models of healthy systems and models of mutated systems giving rise to known diseases....
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation
Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten
2015-04-01
Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.
Inverse Analysis and Modeling for Tunneling Thrust on Shield Machine
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qian Zhang
2013-01-01
Full Text Available With the rapid development of sensor and detection technologies, measured data analysis plays an increasingly important role in the design and control of heavy engineering equipment. The paper proposed a method for inverse analysis and modeling based on mass on-site measured data, in which dimensional analysis and data mining techniques were combined. The method was applied to the modeling of the tunneling thrust on shield machines and an explicit expression for thrust prediction was established. Combined with on-site data from a tunneling project in China, the inverse identification of model coefficients was carried out using the multiple regression method. The model residual was analyzed by statistical methods. By comparing the on-site data and the model predicted results in the other two projects with different tunneling conditions, the feasibility of the model was discussed. The work may provide a scientific basis for the rational design and control of shield tunneling machines and also a new way for mass on-site data analysis of complex engineering systems with nonlinear, multivariable, time-varying characteristics.
Computer Models for IRIS Control System Transient Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gary D Storrick; Bojan Petrovic; Luca Oriani
2007-01-01
This report presents results of the Westinghouse work performed under Task 3 of this Financial Assistance Award and it satisfies a Level 2 Milestone for the project. Task 3 of the collaborative effort between ORNL, Brazil and Westinghouse for the International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative entitled 'Development of Advanced Instrumentation and Control for an Integrated Primary System Reactor' focuses on developing computer models for transient analysis. This report summarizes the work performed under Task 3 on developing control system models. The present state of the IRIS plant design--such as the lack of a detailed secondary system or I and C system designs--makes finalizing models impossible at this time. However, this did not prevent making considerable progress. Westinghouse has several working models in use to further the IRIS design. We expect to continue modifying the models to incorporate the latest design information until the final IRIS unit becomes operational. Section 1.2 outlines the scope of this report. Section 2 describes the approaches we are using for non-safety transient models. It describes the need for non-safety transient analysis and the model characteristics needed to support those analyses. Section 3 presents the RELAP5 model. This is the highest-fidelity model used for benchmark evaluations. However, it is prohibitively slow for routine evaluations and additional lower-fidelity models have been developed. Section 4 discusses the current Matlab/Simulink model. This is a low-fidelity, high-speed model used to quickly evaluate and compare competing control and protection concepts. Section 5 describes the Modelica models developed by POLIMI and Westinghouse. The object-oriented Modelica language provides convenient mechanisms for developing models at several levels of detail. We have used this to develop a high-fidelity model for detailed analyses and a faster-running simplified model to help speed the I and C development process. Section
Perturbation analysis for Monte Carlo continuous cross section models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kennedy, Chris B.; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.
2011-01-01
Sensitivity analysis, including both its forward and adjoint applications, collectively referred to hereinafter as Perturbation Analysis (PA), is an essential tool to complete Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Data Assimilation (DA). PA-assisted UQ and DA have traditionally been carried out for reactor analysis problems using deterministic as opposed to stochastic models for radiation transport. This is because PA requires many model executions to quantify how variations in input data, primarily cross sections, affect variations in model's responses, e.g. detectors readings, flux distribution, multiplication factor, etc. Although stochastic models are often sought for their higher accuracy, their repeated execution is at best computationally expensive and in reality intractable for typical reactor analysis problems involving many input data and output responses. Deterministic methods however achieve computational efficiency needed to carry out the PA analysis by reducing problem dimensionality via various spatial and energy homogenization assumptions. This however introduces modeling error components into the PA results which propagate to the following UQ and DA analyses. The introduced errors are problem specific and therefore are expected to limit the applicability of UQ and DA analyses to reactor systems that satisfy the introduced assumptions. This manuscript introduces a new method to complete PA employing a continuous cross section stochastic model and performed in a computationally efficient manner. If successful, the modeling error components introduced by deterministic methods could be eliminated, thereby allowing for wider applicability of DA and UQ results. Two MCNP models demonstrate the application of the new method - a Critical Pu Sphere (Jezebel), a Pu Fast Metal Array (Russian BR-1). The PA is completed for reaction rate densities, reaction rate ratios, and the multiplication factor. (author)
Hydrochemical analysis of groundwater using a tree-based model
Litaor, M. Iggy; Brielmann, H.; Reichmann, O.; Shenker, M.
2010-06-01
SummaryHydrochemical indices are commonly used to ascertain aquifer characteristics, salinity problems, anthropogenic inputs and resource management, among others. This study was conducted to test the applicability of a binary decision tree model to aquifer evaluation using hydrochemical indices as input. The main advantage of the tree-based model compared to other commonly used statistical procedures such as cluster and factor analyses is the ability to classify groundwater samples with assigned probability and the reduction of a large data set into a few significant variables without creating new factors. We tested the model using data sets collected from headwater springs of the Jordan River, Israel. The model evaluation consisted of several levels of complexity, from simple separation between the calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate water type of karstic aquifers to the more challenging separation of calcium-sodium-bicarbonate water type flowing through perched and regional basaltic aquifers. In all cases, the model assigned measures for goodness of fit in the form of misclassification errors and singled out the most significant variable in the analysis. The model proceeded through a sequence of partitions providing insight into different possible pathways and changing lithology. The model results were extremely useful in constraining the interpretation of geological heterogeneity and constructing a conceptual flow model for a given aquifer. The tree model clearly identified the hydrochemical indices that were excluded from the analysis, thus providing information that can lead to a decrease in the number of routinely analyzed variables and a significant reduction in laboratory cost.
Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model
Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.
2010-01-01
As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.
The concept of validation of numerical models for consequence analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borg, Audun; Paulsen Husted, Bjarne; Njå, Ove
2014-01-01
Numerical models such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are increasingly used in life safety studies and other types of analyses to calculate the effects of fire and explosions. The validity of these models is usually established by benchmark testing. This is done to quantitatively measure the agreement between the predictions provided by the model and the real world represented by observations in experiments. This approach assumes that all variables in the real world relevant for the specific study are adequately measured in the experiments and in the predictions made by the model. In this paper the various definitions of validation for CFD models used for hazard prediction are investigated to assess their implication for consequence analysis in a design phase. In other words, how is uncertainty in the prediction of future events reflected in the validation process? The sources of uncertainty are viewed from the perspective of the safety engineer. An example of the use of a CFD model is included to illustrate the assumptions the analyst must make and how these affect the prediction made by the model. The assessments presented in this paper are based on a review of standards and best practice guides for CFD modeling and the documentation from two existing CFD programs. Our main thrust has been to assess how validation work is performed and communicated in practice. We conclude that the concept of validation adopted for numerical models is adequate in terms of model performance. However, it does not address the main sources of uncertainty from the perspective of the safety engineer. Uncertainty in the input quantities describing future events, which are determined by the model user, outweighs the inaccuracies in the model as reported in validation studies. - Highlights: • Examine the basic concept of validation applied to models for consequence analysis. • Review standards and guides for validation of numerical models. • Comparison of the validation
An effective convolutional neural network model for Chinese sentiment analysis
Zhang, Yu; Chen, Mengdong; Liu, Lianzhong; Wang, Yadong
2017-06-01
Nowadays microblog is getting more and more popular. People are increasingly accustomed to expressing their opinions on Twitter, Facebook and Sina Weibo. Sentiment analysis of microblog has received significant attention, both in academia and in industry. So far, Chinese microblog exploration still needs lots of further work. In recent years CNN has also been used to deal with NLP tasks, and already achieved good results. However, these methods ignore the effective use of a large number of existing sentimental resources. For this purpose, we propose a Lexicon-based Sentiment Convolutional Neural Networks (LSCNN) model focus on Weibo's sentiment analysis, which combines two CNNs, trained individually base on sentiment features and word embedding, at the fully connected hidden layer. The experimental results show that our model outperforms the CNN model only with word embedding features on microblog sentiment analysis task.
Discrete Discriminant analysis based on tree-structured graphical models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Perez de la Cruz, Gonzalo; Eslava, Guillermina
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of discriminant analysis based on tree{structured graphical models for discrete variables. This is done by comparing its empirical performance using estimated error rates for real and simulated data. The results show that discriminant a...... analysis based on tree{structured graphical models is a simple nonlinear method competitive with, and sometimes superior to, other well{known linear methods like those assuming mutual independence between variables and linear logistic regression.......The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of discriminant analysis based on tree{structured graphical models for discrete variables. This is done by comparing its empirical performance using estimated error rates for real and simulated data. The results show that discriminant...
Analysis of deterministic cyclic gene regulatory network models with delays
Ahsen, Mehmet Eren; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian
2015-01-01
This brief examines a deterministic, ODE-based model for gene regulatory networks (GRN) that incorporates nonlinearities and time-delayed feedback. An introductory chapter provides some insights into molecular biology and GRNs. The mathematical tools necessary for studying the GRN model are then reviewed, in particular Hill functions and Schwarzian derivatives. One chapter is devoted to the analysis of GRNs under negative feedback with time delays and a special case of a homogenous GRN is considered. Asymptotic stability analysis of GRNs under positive feedback is then considered in a separate chapter, in which conditions leading to bi-stability are derived. Graduate and advanced undergraduate students and researchers in control engineering, applied mathematics, systems biology and synthetic biology will find this brief to be a clear and concise introduction to the modeling and analysis of GRNs.
Apply Functional Modelling to Consequence Analysis in Supervision Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhang, Xinxin; Lind, Morten; Gola, Giulio
2013-01-01
This paper will first present the purpose and goals of applying functional modelling approach to consequence analysis by adopting Multilevel Flow Modelling (MFM). MFM Models describe a complex system in multiple abstraction levels in both means-end dimension and whole-part dimension. It contains...... consequence analysis to practical or online applications in supervision systems. It will also suggest a multiagent solution as the integration architecture for developing tools to facilitate the utilization results of functional consequence analysis. Finally a prototype of the multiagent reasoning system...... causal relations between functions and goals. A rule base system can be developed to trace the causal relations and perform consequence propagations. This paper will illustrate how to use MFM for consequence reasoning by using rule base technology and describe the challenges for integrating functional...
Integrating model checking with HiP-HOPS in model-based safety analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sharvia, Septavera; Papadopoulos, Yiannis
2015-01-01
The ability to perform an effective and robust safety analysis on the design of modern safety–critical systems is crucial. Model-based safety analysis (MBSA) has been introduced in recent years to support the assessment of complex system design by focusing on the system model as the central artefact, and by automating the synthesis and analysis of failure-extended models. Model checking and failure logic synthesis and analysis (FLSA) are two prominent MBSA paradigms. Extensive research has placed emphasis on the development of these techniques, but discussion on their integration remains limited. In this paper, we propose a technique in which model checking and Hierarchically Performed Hazard Origin and Propagation Studies (HiP-HOPS) – an advanced FLSA technique – can be applied synergistically with benefit for the MBSA process. The application of the technique is illustrated through an example of a brake-by-wire system. - Highlights: • We propose technique to integrate HiP-HOPS and model checking. • State machines can be systematically constructed from HiP-HOPS. • The strengths of different MBSA techniques are combined. • Demonstrated through modeling and analysis of brake-by-wire system. • Root cause analysis is automated and system dynamic behaviors analyzed and verified
Visual modeling in an analysis of multidimensional data
Zakharova, A. A.; Vekhter, E. V.; Shklyar, A. V.; Pak, A. J.
2018-01-01
The article proposes an approach to solve visualization problems and the subsequent analysis of multidimensional data. Requirements to the properties of visual models, which were created to solve analysis problems, are described. As a perspective direction for the development of visual analysis tools for multidimensional and voluminous data, there was suggested an active use of factors of subjective perception and dynamic visualization. Practical results of solving the problem of multidimensional data analysis are shown using the example of a visual model of empirical data on the current state of studying processes of obtaining silicon carbide by an electric arc method. There are several results of solving this problem. At first, an idea of possibilities of determining the strategy for the development of the domain, secondly, the reliability of the published data on this subject, and changes in the areas of attention of researchers over time.
Credible baseline analysis for multi-model public policy studies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Parikh, S.C.; Gass, S.I.
1981-01-01
The nature of public decision-making and resource allocation is such that many complex interactions can best be examined and understood by quantitative analysis. Most organizations do not possess the totality of models and needed analytical skills to perform detailed and systematic quantitative analysis. Hence, the need for coordinated, multi-organization studies that support public decision-making has grown in recent years. This trend is expected not only to continue, but to increase. This paper describes the authors' views on the process of multi-model analysis based on their participation in an analytical exercise, the ORNL/MITRE Study. One of the authors was the exercise coordinator. During the study, the authors were concerned with the issue of measuring and conveying credibility of the analysis. This work led them to identify several key determinants, described in this paper, that could be used to develop a rating of credibility.
A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models
Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.
1975-01-01
Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.
Analysis and Enhancements of a Prolific Macroscopic Model of Epilepsy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christopher Fietkiewicz
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Macroscopic models of epilepsy can deliver surprisingly realistic EEG simulations. In the present study, a prolific series of models is evaluated with regard to theoretical and computational concerns, and enhancements are developed. Specifically, we analyze three aspects of the models: (1 Using dynamical systems analysis, we demonstrate and explain the presence of direct current potentials in the simulated EEG that were previously undocumented. (2 We explain how the system was not ideally formulated for numerical integration of stochastic differential equations. A reformulated system is developed to support proper methodology. (3 We explain an unreported contradiction in the published model specification regarding the use of a mathematical reduction method. We then use the method to reduce the number of equations and further improve the computational efficiency. The intent of our critique is to enhance the evolution of macroscopic modeling of epilepsy and assist others who wish to explore this exciting class of models further.
Analysis of CPN-1 sigma models via projective structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Post, S; Grundland, A M
2012-01-01
This paper represents a study of projector solutions to the Euclidean CP N-1 sigma model in two dimensions and their associated surfaces immersed in the su(N) Lie algebra. Any solution for the CP N-1 sigma model defined on the extended complex plane with finite action can be written as a raising operator acting on a holomorphic one. Here the proof is formulated in terms rank-1 projectors so it is explicitly gauge invariant. We apply these results to the analysis of surfaces associated with the CP N-1 models defined using the generalized Weierstrass formula for immersion. We show that the surfaces are conformally parametrized by the Lagrangian density, with finite area equal to the action of the model, and express several other geometrical characteristics of the surface in terms of the physical quantities of the model. Finally, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions that a surface be related to a CP N-1 sigma model
The Aviation System Analysis Capability Airport Capacity and Delay Models
Lee, David A.; Nelson, Caroline; Shapiro, Gerald
1998-01-01
The ASAC Airport Capacity Model and the ASAC Airport Delay Model support analyses of technologies addressing airport capacity. NASA's Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Airport Capacity Model estimates the capacity of an airport as a function of weather, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) procedures, traffic characteristics, and the level of technology available. Airport capacity is presented as a Pareto frontier of arrivals per hour versus departures per hour. The ASAC Airport Delay Model allows the user to estimate the minutes of arrival delay for an airport, given its (weather dependent) capacity. Historical weather observations and demand patterns are provided by ASAC as inputs to the delay model. The ASAC economic models can translate a reduction in delay minutes into benefit dollars.
Multivariate Survival Mixed Models for Genetic Analysis of Longevity Traits
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pimentel Maia, Rafael; Madsen, Per; Labouriau, Rodrigo
2014-01-01
A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in quantitative genetics although the discussion presented co...... applications. The methods presented are implemented in such a way that large and complex quantitative genetic data can be analyzed......A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in quantitative genetics although the discussion presented...... concentrates on longevity studies. The framework presented allows to combine models based on continuous time with models based on discrete time in a joint analysis. The continuous time models are approximations of the frailty model in which the hazard function will be assumed to be piece-wise constant...
Multivariate Survival Mixed Models for Genetic Analysis of Longevity Traits
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pimentel Maia, Rafael; Madsen, Per; Labouriau, Rodrigo
2013-01-01
A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in quantitative genetics although the discussion presented co...... applications. The methods presented are implemented in such a way that large and complex quantitative genetic data can be analyzed......A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in quantitative genetics although the discussion presented...... concentrates on longevity studies. The framework presented allows to combine models based on continuous time with models based on discrete time in a joint analysis. The continuous time models are approximations of the frailty model in which the hazard function will be assumed to be piece-wise constant...
Formability models for warm sheet metal forming analysis
Jiang, Sen
Several closed form models for the prediction of strain space sheet metal formability as a function of temperature and strain rate are proposed. The proposed models require only failure strain information from the uniaxial tension test at an elevated temperature setting and failure strain information from the traditionally defined strain space forming limit diagram at room temperature, thereby featuring the advantage of offering a full forming limit description without having to carry out expensive experimental studies for multiple modes of deformation under the elevated temperature. The Power law, Voce, and Johnson-Cook hardening models are considered along with the yield criterions of Hill's 48 and Logan-Hosford yield criteria. Acceptable correlations between the theory and experiment are reported for all the models under a plane strain condition. Among all the proposed models, the model featuring Johnson-Cook hardening model and Logan-Hosford yield behavior (LHJC model) was shown to best correlate with experiment. The sensitivity of the model with respect to various forming parameters is discussed. This work is significant to those aiming to incorporate closed-form formability models directly into numerical simulation programs for the purpose of design and analysis of products manufactured through the warm sheet metal forming process. An improvement based upon Swift's diffuse necking theory, is suggested in order to enhance the reliability of the model for biaxial stretch conditions. Theory relating to this improvement is provided in Appendix B.
Modeling data irregularities and structural complexities in data envelopment analysis
Zhu, Joe
2007-01-01
In a relatively short period of time, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has grown into a powerful quantitative, analytical tool for measuring and evaluating performance. It has been successfully applied to a whole variety of problems in many different contexts worldwide. This book deals with the micro aspects of handling and modeling data issues in modeling DEA problems. DEA's use has grown with its capability of dealing with complex "service industry" and the "public service domain" types of problems that require modeling of both qualitative and quantitative data. This handbook treatment deals with specific data problems including: imprecise or inaccurate data; missing data; qualitative data; outliers; undesirable outputs; quality data; statistical analysis; software and other data aspects of modeling complex DEA problems. In addition, the book will demonstrate how to visualize DEA results when the data is more than 3-dimensional, and how to identify efficiency units quickly and accurately.
Model-based human reliability analysis: prospects and requirements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mosleh, A.; Chang, Y.H.
2004-01-01
Major limitations of the conventional methods for human reliability analysis (HRA), particularly those developed for operator response analysis in probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) of nuclear power plants, are summarized as a motivation for the need and a basis for developing requirements for the next generation HRA methods. It is argued that a model-based approach that provides explicit cognitive causal links between operator behaviors and directly or indirectly measurable causal factors should be at the core of the advanced methods. An example of such causal model is briefly reviewed, where due to the model complexity and input requirements can only be currently implemented in a dynamic PSA environment. The computer simulation code developed for this purpose is also described briefly, together with current limitations in the models, data, and the computer implementation
Causal Analysis for Performance Modeling of Computer Programs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jan Lemeire
2007-01-01
Full Text Available Causal modeling and the accompanying learning algorithms provide useful extensions for in-depth statistical investigation and automation of performance modeling. We enlarged the scope of existing causal structure learning algorithms by using the form-free information-theoretic concept of mutual information and by introducing the complexity criterion for selecting direct relations among equivalent relations. The underlying probability distribution of experimental data is estimated by kernel density estimation. We then reported on the benefits of a dependency analysis and the decompositional capacities of causal models. Useful qualitative models, providing insight into the role of every performance factor, were inferred from experimental data. This paper reports on the results for a LU decomposition algorithm and on the study of the parameter sensitivity of the Kakadu implementation of the JPEG-2000 standard. Next, the analysis was used to search for generic performance characteristics of the applications.
Analysis of a Model for Computer Virus Transmission
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peng Qin
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Computer viruses remain a significant threat to computer networks. In this paper, the incorporation of new computers to the network and the removing of old computers from the network are considered. Meanwhile, the computers are equipped with antivirus software on the computer network. The computer virus model is established. Through the analysis of the model, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated. The stability conditions of the equilibria are derived. To illustrate our theoretical analysis, some numerical simulations are also included. The results provide a theoretical basis to control the spread of computer virus.
Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis
Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo
2013-01-01
Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical
Business Models For SMEs In Bandung: Swot Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Senen Machmud
2014-04-01
Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to find the model business for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs with management strategy and business strategy approach. This research to help researchers, owners of SMEs and government in developing a framework for management strategy and business strategy on how the best result of business models. This study is valuable considering the limited among of empirical work previously done on the topic in question. The result of management strategies is internal and external factor analysis than analysis with strength, weakness, opportunities, and treatment (SWOT.
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Model in Operation Management
Malik, Meilisa; Efendi, Syahril; Zarlis, Muhammad
2018-01-01
Quality management is an effective system in operation management to develops, maintains, and improves quality from groups of companies that allow marketing, production, and service at the most economycal level as well as ensuring customer satisfication. Many companies are practicing quality management to improve their bussiness performance. One of performance measurement is through measurement of efficiency. One of the tools can be used to assess efficiency of companies performance is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The aim of this paper is using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to assess efficiency of quality management. In this paper will be explained CCR, BCC, and SBM models to assess efficiency of quality management.
A model for C-14 tracer evaporative rate analysis (ERA)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gardner, R.P.; Verghese, K.
1993-01-01
A simple model has been derived and tested for the C-14 tracer evaporative rate analysis (ERA) method. It allows the accurate determination of the evaporative rate coefficient of the C-14 tracer detector in the presence of variable evaporation rates of the detector solvent and variable background counting rates. The evaporation rate coefficient should be the most fundamental parameter available in this analysis method and, therefore, its measurements with the proposed model should allow the most direct correlations to be made with the system properties of interest such as surface cleanliness. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiao-meng Song
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.
Sensitivity analysis of the terrestrial food chain model FOOD III
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zach, Reto.
1980-10-01
As a first step in constructing a terrestrial food chain model suitable for long-term waste management situations, a numerical sensitivity analysis of FOOD III was carried out to identify important model parameters. The analysis involved 42 radionuclides, four pathways, 14 food types, 93 parameters and three percentages of parameter variation. We also investigated the importance of radionuclides, pathways and food types. The analysis involved a simple contamination model to render results from individual pathways comparable. The analysis showed that radionuclides vary greatly in their dose contribution to each of the four pathways, but relative contributions to each pathway are very similar. Man's and animals' drinking water pathways are much more important than the leaf and root pathways. However, this result depends on the contamination model used. All the pathways contain unimportant food types. Considering the number of parameters involved, FOOD III has too many different food types. Many of the parameters of the leaf and root pathway are important. However, this is true for only a few of the parameters of animals' drinking water pathway, and for neither of the two parameters of mans' drinking water pathway. The radiological decay constant increases the variability of these results. The dose factor is consistently the most important variable, and it explains most of the variability of radionuclide doses within pathways. Consideration of the variability of dose factors is important in contemporary as well as long-term waste management assessment models, if realistic estimates are to be made. (auth)
Variance-based sensitivity analysis for wastewater treatment plant modelling.
Cosenza, Alida; Mannina, Giorgio; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; Neumann, Marc B
2014-02-01
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a valuable tool to support the use of mathematical models that characterise technical or natural systems. In the field of wastewater modelling, most of the recent applications of GSA use either regression-based methods, which require close to linear relationships between the model outputs and model factors, or screening methods, which only yield qualitative results. However, due to the characteristics of membrane bioreactors (MBR) (non-linear kinetics, complexity, etc.) there is an interest to adequately quantify the effects of non-linearity and interactions. This can be achieved with variance-based sensitivity analysis methods. In this paper, the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (Extended-FAST) method is applied to an integrated activated sludge model (ASM2d) for an MBR system including microbial product formation and physical separation processes. Twenty-one model outputs located throughout the different sections of the bioreactor and 79 model factors are considered. Significant interactions among the model factors are found. Contrary to previous GSA studies for ASM models, we find the relationship between variables and factors to be non-linear and non-additive. By analysing the pattern of the variance decomposition along the plant, the model factors having the highest variance contributions were identified. This study demonstrates the usefulness of variance-based methods in membrane bioreactor modelling where, due to the presence of membranes and different operating conditions than those typically found in conventional activated sludge systems, several highly non-linear effects are present. Further, the obtained results highlight the relevant role played by the modelling approach for MBR taking into account simultaneously biological and physical processes. © 2013.
Mathematical models of ABE fermentation: review and analysis.
Mayank, Rahul; Ranjan, Amrita; Moholkar, Vijayanand S
2013-12-01
Among different liquid biofuels that have emerged in the recent past, biobutanol produced via fermentation processes is of special interest due to very similar properties to that of gasoline. For an effective design, scale-up, and optimization of the acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) fermentation process, it is necessary to have insight into the micro- and macro-mechanisms of the process. The mathematical models for ABE fermentation are efficient tools for this purpose, which have evolved from simple stoichiometric fermentation equations in the 1980s to the recent sophisticated and elaborate kinetic models based on metabolic pathways. In this article, we have reviewed the literature published in the area of mathematical modeling of the ABE fermentation. We have tried to present an analysis of these models in terms of their potency in describing the overall physiology of the process, design features, mode of operation along with comparison and validation with experimental results. In addition, we have also highlighted important facets of these models such as metabolic pathways, basic kinetics of different metabolites, biomass growth, inhibition modeling and other additional features such as cell retention and immobilized cultures. Our review also covers the mathematical modeling of the downstream processing of ABE fermentation, i.e. recovery and purification of solvents through flash distillation, liquid-liquid extraction, and pervaporation. We believe that this review will be a useful source of information and analysis on mathematical models for ABE fermentation for both the appropriate scientific and engineering communities.
Hybrid modeling and empirical analysis of automobile supply chain network
Sun, Jun-yan; Tang, Jian-ming; Fu, Wei-ping; Wu, Bing-ying
2017-05-01
Based on the connection mechanism of nodes which automatically select upstream and downstream agents, a simulation model for dynamic evolutionary process of consumer-driven automobile supply chain is established by integrating ABM and discrete modeling in the GIS-based map. Firstly, the rationality is proved by analyzing the consistency of sales and changes in various agent parameters between the simulation model and a real automobile supply chain. Second, through complex network theory, hierarchical structures of the model and relationships of networks at different levels are analyzed to calculate various characteristic parameters such as mean distance, mean clustering coefficients, and degree distributions. By doing so, it verifies that the model is a typical scale-free network and small-world network. Finally, the motion law of this model is analyzed from the perspective of complex self-adaptive systems. The chaotic state of the simulation system is verified, which suggests that this system has typical nonlinear characteristics. This model not only macroscopically illustrates the dynamic evolution of complex networks of automobile supply chain but also microcosmically reflects the business process of each agent. Moreover, the model construction and simulation of the system by means of combining CAS theory and complex networks supplies a novel method for supply chain analysis, as well as theory bases and experience for supply chain analysis of auto companies.
Bifurcation analysis of parametrically excited bipolar disorder model
Nana, Laurent
2009-02-01
Bipolar II disorder is characterized by alternating hypomanic and major depressive episode. We model the periodic mood variations of a bipolar II patient with a negatively damped harmonic oscillator. The medications administrated to the patient are modeled via a forcing function that is capable of stabilizing the mood variations and of varying their amplitude. We analyze analytically, using perturbation method, the amplitude and stability of limit cycles and check this analysis with numerical simulations.
A Computable OLG Model for Gender and Growth Policy Analysis
Pierre-Richard Agénor
2012-01-01
This paper develops a computable Overlapping Generations (OLG) model for gender and growth policy analysis. The model accounts for human and physical capital accumulation (both public and private), intra- and inter-generational health persistence, fertility choices, and women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, and home production. Bargaining between spouses and gender bias, in the form of discrimination in the work place and mothers' time allocation between daughters and so...
Phase space analysis of some interacting Chaplygin gas models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Khurshudyan, M. [Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Institute for Physical Research, Ashtarak (Armenia); Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Laboratory for Theoretical Cosmology, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tomsk State Pedagogical University, Department of Theoretical Physics, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Myrzakulov, R. [Eurasian National University, Eurasian International Center for Theoretical Physics, Astana (Kazakhstan)
2017-02-15
In this paper we discuss a phase space analysis of various interacting Chaplygin gas models in general relativity. Linear and nonlinear sign changeable interactions are considered. For each case appropriate late time attractors of field equations are found. The Chaplygin gas is one of the dark fluids actively considered in modern cosmology due to the fact that it is a joint model of dark energy and dark matter. (orig.)
Voulgarelis, Dimitrios; Velayudhan, Ajoy; Smith, Frank
2017-01-01
Agent-based models provide a formidable tool for exploring complex and emergent behaviour of biological systems as well as accurate results but with the drawback of needing a lot of computational power and time for subsequent analysis. On the other hand, equation-based models can more easily be used for complex analysis in a much shorter timescale. This paper formulates an ordinary differential equations and stochastic differential equations model to capture the behaviour of an existing agent-based model of tumour cell reprogramming and applies it to optimization of possible treatment as well as dosage sensitivity analysis. For certain values of the parameter space a close match between the equation-based and agent-based models is achieved. The need for division of labour between the two approaches is explored. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.
A New Dynamic Model for Nuclear Fuel Cycle System Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Sungyeol; Ko, Won Il
2014-01-01
The evaluation of mass flow is a complex process where numerous parameters and their complex interaction are involved. Given that many nuclear power countries have light and heavy water reactors and associated fuel cycle technologies, the mass flow analysis has to consider a dynamic transition from the open fuel cycle to other cycles over decades or a century. Although an equilibrium analysis provides insight concerning the end-states of fuel cycle transitions, it cannot answer when we need specific management options, whether the current plan can deliver these options when needed, and how fast the equilibrium can be achieved. As a pilot application, the government brought several experts together to conduct preliminary evaluations for nuclear fuel cycle options in 2010. According to Table 1, they concluded that the closed nuclear fuel cycle has long-term advantages over the open fuel cycle. However, it is still necessary to assess these options in depth and to optimize transition paths of these long-term options with advanced dynamic fuel cycle models. A dynamic simulation model for nuclear fuel cycle systems was developed and its dynamic mass flow analysis capability was validated against the results of existing models. This model can reflects a complex combination of various fuel cycle processes and reactor types, from once-through to multiple recycling, within a single nuclear fuel cycle system. For the open fuel cycle, the results of the developed model are well matched with the results of other models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
María-José Rabadán-Zaragoza
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This article presents the results of the analysis of 103 alcohol-related texts published from January to June, 2009, by four Spanish newspapers: El País (22, El Mundo (35, Abc (24, and La Razón (22. Two methods were used to examine the representation of alcohol: structural analysis based on Kayser’s model (1982 and content analysis based on framing theory. The latter method has been used to examine the journalistic treatment of biotechnology (Durant, Bauer, and Gaskell, 1998; Nisbet, M.C., Brossard, and Kroepsch, 2003; Rodríguez-Luque, 2009, which has been adapted to examine the subject of drugs (Paricio, 2010. A reliability of 90% was achieved in the Cohen’s Kappa coefficient test for the 67 variables examined in this study. The genre most dedicated to the subject of alcohol was news articles (66.9%, whose main theme was related conflict (19 texts, particularly the consequences of drunk driving (9 texts. The most used frames by journalists were, in decreasing order, crime (identified in 62 texts, new research results (in 11 texts, and epidemiology (in 15 texts. However, only few texts were dedicated to the prevention of alcohol consumption (a theme in only 4.85% of the sample and the legal institutions dedicated to this activity (2.91%.
Hydraulic modeling support for conflict analysis: The Manayunk canal revisited
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chadderton, R.A.; Traver, R.G.; Rao, J.N.
1992-01-01
This paper presents a study which used a standard, hydraulic computer model to generate detailed design information to support conflict analysis of a water resource use issue. As an extension of previous studies, the conflict analysis in this case included several scenarios for stability analysis - all of which reached the conclusion that compromising, shared access to the water resources available would result in the most benefits to society. This expected equilibrium outcome was found to maximize benefit-cost estimates. 17 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs
Sparse Principal Component Analysis in Medical Shape Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sjöstrand, Karl; Stegmann, Mikkel Bille; Larsen, Rasmus
2006-01-01
Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used tool in medical image analysis for data reduction, model building, and data understanding and exploration. While PCA is a holistic approach where each new variable is a linear combination of all original variables, sparse PCA (SPCA) aims...... analysis in medicine. Results for three different data sets are given in relation to standard PCA and sparse PCA by simple thresholding of sufficiently small loadings. Focus is on a recent algorithm for computing sparse principal components, but a review of other approaches is supplied as well. The SPCA...
Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon
2005-01-01
Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface
Strengthening the weak link: Built Environment modelling for loss analysis
Millinship, I.
2012-04-01
Methods to analyse insured losses from a range of natural perils, including pricing by primary insurers and catastrophe modelling by reinsurers, typically lack sufficient exposure information. Understanding the hazard intensity in terms of spatial severity and frequency is only the first step towards quantifying the risk of a catastrophic event. For any given event we need to know: Are any structures affected? What type of buildings are they? How much damaged occurred? How much will the repairs cost? To achieve this, detailed exposure information is required to assess the likely damage and to effectively calculate the resultant loss. Modelling exposures in the Built Environment therefore plays as important a role in understanding re/insurance risk as characterising the physical hazard. Across both primary insurance books and aggregated reinsurance portfolios, the location of a property (a risk) and its monetary value is typically known. Exactly what that risk is in terms of detailed property descriptors including structure type and rebuild cost - and therefore its vulnerability to loss - is often omitted. This data deficiency is a primary source of variations between modelled losses and the actual claims value. Built Environment models are therefore required at a high resolution to describe building attributes that relate vulnerability to property damage. However, national-scale household-level datasets are often not computationally practical in catastrophe models and data must be aggregated. In order to provide more accurate risk analysis, we have developed and applied a methodology for Built Environment modelling for incorporation into a range of re/insurance applications, including operational models for different international regions and different perils and covering residential, commercial and industry exposures. Illustrated examples are presented, including exposure modelling suitable for aggregated reinsurance analysis for the UK and bespoke high resolution
Uncertainty Analysis of Multi-Model Flood Forecasts
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erich J. Plate
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This paper demonstrates, by means of a systematic uncertainty analysis, that the use of outputs from more than one model can significantly improve conditional forecasts of discharges or water stages, provided the models are structurally different. Discharge forecasts from two models and the actual forecasted discharge are assumed to form a three-dimensional joint probability density distribution (jpdf, calibrated on long time series of data. The jpdf is decomposed into conditional probability density distributions (cpdf by means of Bayes formula, as suggested and explored by Krzysztofowicz in a series of papers. In this paper his approach is simplified to optimize conditional forecasts for any set of two forecast models. Its application is demonstrated by means of models developed in a study of flood forecasting for station Stung Treng on the middle reach of the Mekong River in South-East Asia. Four different forecast models were used and pairwise combined: forecast with no model, with persistence model, with a regression model, and with a rainfall-runoff model. Working with cpdfs requires determination of dependency among variables, for which linear regressions are required, as was done by Krzysztofowicz. His Bayesian approach based on transforming observed probability distributions of discharges and forecasts into normal distributions is also explored. Results obtained with his method for normal prior and likelihood distributions are identical to results from direct multiple regressions. Furthermore, it is shown that in the present case forecast accuracy is only marginally improved, if Weibull distributed basic data were converted into normally distributed variables.
Development of Dynamic Spent Nuclear Fuel Environmental Effect Analysis Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il; Lee, Ho Hee; Cho, Dong Keun; Park, Chang Je
2010-07-01
The dynamic environmental effect evaluation model for spent nuclear fuel has been developed and incorporated into the system dynamic DANESS code. First, the spent nuclear fuel isotope decay model was modeled. Then, the environmental effects were modeled through short-term decay heat model, short-term radioactivity model, and long-term heat load model. By using the developed model, the Korean once-through nuclear fuel cycles was analyzed. The once-through fuel cycle analysis was modeled based on the Korean 'National Energy Basic Plan' up to 2030 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate until 2150. From the once-through results, it is shown that the nuclear power demand would be ∼70 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel accumulated by 2150 would be ∼168000 t. If the disposal starts from 2060, the short-term decay heat of Cs-137 and Sr-90 isotopes are W and 1.8x10 6 W in 2100. Also, the total long-term heat load in 2100 will be 4415 MW-y. From the calculation results, it was found that the developed model is very convenient and simple for evaluation of the environmental effect of the spent nuclear fuel
Predictive models for monitoring and analysis of the total zooplankton
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Obradović Milica
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In recent years, modeling and prediction of total zooplankton abundance have been performed by various tools and techniques, among which data mining tools have been less frequent. The purpose of this paper is to automatically determine the dependency degree and the influence of physical, chemical and biological parameters on the total zooplankton abundance, through design of the specific data mining models. For this purpose, the analysis of key influencers was used. The analysis is based on the data obtained from the SeLaR information system - specifically, the data from the two reservoirs (Gruža and Grošnica with different morphometric characteristics and trophic state. The data is transformed into optimal structure for data analysis, upon which, data mining model based on the Naïve Bayes algorithm is constructed. The results of the analysis imply that in both reservoirs, parameters of groups and species of zooplankton have the greatest influence on the total zooplankton abundance. If these inputs (group and zooplankton species are left out, differences in the impact of physical, chemical and other biological parameters in dependences of reservoirs can be noted. In the Grošnica reservoir, analysis showed that the temporal dimension (months, nitrates, water temperature, chemical oxygen demand, chlorophyll and chlorides, had the key influence with strong relative impact. In the Gruža reservoir, key influence parameters for total zooplankton are: spatial dimension (location, water temperature and physiological groups of bacteria. The results show that the presented data mining model is usable on any kind of aquatic ecosystem and can also serve for the detection of inputs which could be the basis for the future analysis and modeling.
Personalization of models with many model parameters : an efficient sensitivity analysis approach
Donders, W.P.; Huberts, W.; van de Vosse, F.N.; Delhaas, T.
2015-01-01
Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of
A smart growth evaluation model based on data envelopment analysis
Zhang, Xiaokun; Guan, Yongyi
2018-04-01
With the rapid spread of urbanization, smart growth (SG) has attracted plenty of attention from all over the world. In this paper, by the establishment of index system for smart growth, data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was suggested to evaluate the SG level of the current growth situation in cities. In order to further improve the information of both radial direction and non-radial detection, we introduced the non-Archimedean infinitesimal to form C2GS2 control model. Finally, we evaluated the SG level in Canberra and identified a series of problems, which can verify the applicability of the model and provide us more improvement information.
Forecasting Analysis of Shanghai Stock Index Based on ARIMA Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Chenggang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Prediction and analysis of the Shanghai Composite Index is conducive for investors to investing in the stock market, and providing investors with reference. This paper selects Shanghai Composite Index monthly closing price from Jan, 2005 to Oct, 2016 to construct ARIMA model. This paper carries on the forecast of the last three monthly closing price of Shanghai Stock Index that have occurred, and compared it with the actual value, which tests the accuracy and feasibility of the model in the short term Shanghai Stock Index forecast. At last, this paper uses the ARIMA model to forecast the Shanghai Composite Index closing price of the last two months in 2016.
Utility based maintenance analysis using a Random Sign censoring model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andres Christen, J.; Ruggeri, Fabrizio; Villa, Enrique
2011-01-01
Industrial systems subject to failures are usually inspected when there are evident signs of an imminent failure. Maintenance is therefore performed at a random time, somehow dependent on the failure mechanism. A competing risk model, namely a Random Sign model, is considered to relate failure and maintenance times. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis of the model and apply it to actual data from a water pump in an oil refinery. The design of an optimal maintenance policy is then discussed under a formal decision theoretic approach, analyzing the goodness of the current maintenance policy and making decisions about the optimal maintenance time.
Analysis of Mental Processes Represented in Models of Artificial Consciousness
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luana Folchini da Costa
2013-12-01
Full Text Available The Artificial Consciousness concept has been used in the engineering area as being an evolution of the Artificial Intelligence. However, consciousness is a complex subject and often used without formalism. As a main contribution, in this work one proposes an analysis of four recent models of artificial consciousness published in the engineering area. The mental processes represented by these models are highlighted and correlations with the theoretical perspective of cognitive psychology are made. Finally, considerations about consciousness in such models are discussed.
Creation and Reliability Analysis of Vehicle Dynamic Weighing Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhi-Ling XU
2014-08-01
Full Text Available In this paper, it is modeled by using ADAMS to portable axle load meter of dynamic weighing system, controlling a single variable simulation weighing process, getting the simulation weighing data under the different speed and weight; simultaneously using portable weighing system with the same parameters to achieve the actual measurement, comparative analysis the simulation results under the same conditions, at 30 km/h or less, the simulation value and the measured value do not differ by more than 5 %, it is not only to verify the reliability of dynamic weighing model, but also to create possible for improving algorithm study efficiency by using dynamic weighing model simulation.
Human Performance Modeling for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory; Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Laboratory
2015-08-01
Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reac- tor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Charac- terization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk framework. In this paper, we review simulation based and non simulation based human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper summarizes the founda- tional information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human in- teractions in RISMC simulations.
Bifurcation analysis of dengue transmission model in Baguio City, Philippines
Libatique, Criselda P.; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris J.; Addawe, Joel M.
2017-11-01
In this study, we formulate a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue fever in Baguio City, Philippines. We analyzed the existence of the equilibria of the dengue model. We computed and obtained conditions for the existence of the equilibrium states. Stability analysis for the system is carried out for disease free equilibrium. We showed that the system becomes stable under certain conditions of the parameters. A particular parameter is taken and with the use of the Theory of Centre Manifold, the proposed model demonstrates a bifurcation phenomenon. We performed numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.
Numerical model of solar dynamic radiator for parametric analysis
Rhatigan, Jennifer L.
1989-01-01
Growth power requirements for Space Station Freedom will be met through addition of 25 kW solar dynamic (SD) power modules. Extensive thermal and power cycle modeling capabilities have been developed which are powerful tools in Station design and analysis, but which prove cumbersome and costly for simple component preliminary design studies. In order to aid in refining the SD radiator to the mature design stage, a simple and flexible numerical model was developed. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid flow performance of the radiator and calculates area mass and impact survivability for many combinations of flow tube and panel configurations, fluid and material properties, and environmental and cycle variations.
Model parameter uncertainty analysis for annual field-scale P loss model
Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...
Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale phosphorus loss model
Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alina Żogała
2014-01-01
Originality/value: This paper presents state of art in the field of coal gasification modeling using kinetic and computational fluid dynamics approach. The paper also presents own comparative analysis (concerned with mathematical formulation, input data and parameters, basic assumptions, obtained results etc. of the most important models of underground coal gasification.
Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.
2011-01-01
The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)
Modeling and Analysis of Component Faults and Reliability
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Le Guilly, Thibaut; Olsen, Petur; Ravn, Anders Peter
2016-01-01
This chapter presents a process to design and validate models of reactive systems in the form of communicating timed automata. The models are extended with faults associated with probabilities of occurrence. This enables a fault tree analysis of the system using minimal cut sets that are automati......This chapter presents a process to design and validate models of reactive systems in the form of communicating timed automata. The models are extended with faults associated with probabilities of occurrence. This enables a fault tree analysis of the system using minimal cut sets...... that are automatically generated. The stochastic information on the faults is used to estimate the reliability of the fault affected system. The reliability is given with respect to properties of the system state space. We illustrate the process on a concrete example using the Uppaal model checker for validating...... the ideal system model and the fault modeling. Then the statistical version of the tool, UppaalSMC, is used to find reliability estimates....
Stochastic modeling of friction force and vibration analysis of a mechanical system using the model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Won Seok; Choi, Chan Kyu; Yoo, Hong Hee
2015-01-01
The squeal noise generated from a disk brake or chatter occurred in a machine tool primarily results from friction-induced vibration. Since friction-induced vibration is usually accompanied by abrasion and lifespan reduction of mechanical parts, it is necessary to develop a reliable analysis model by which friction-induced vibration phenomena can be accurately analyzed. The original Coulomb's friction model or the modified Coulomb friction model employed in most commercial programs employs deterministic friction coefficients. However, observing friction phenomena between two contact surfaces, one may observe that friction coefficients keep changing due to the unevenness of contact surface, temperature, lubrication and humidity. Therefore, in this study, friction coefficients are modeled as random parameters that keep changing during the motion of a mechanical system undergoing friction force. The integrity of the proposed stochastic friction model was validated by comparing the analysis results obtained by the proposed model with experimental results.
A two stage data envelopment analysis model with undesirable output
Shariff Adli Aminuddin, Adam; Izzati Jaini, Nur; Mat Kasim, Maznah; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd
2017-09-01
The dependent relationship among the decision making units (DMU) is usually assumed to be non-existent in the development of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. The dependency can be represented by the multi-stage DEA model, where the outputs from the precedent stage will be the inputs for the latter stage. The multi-stage DEA model evaluate both the efficiency score for each stages and the overall efficiency of the whole process. The existing multi stage DEA models do not focus on the integration with the undesirable output, in which the higher input will generate lower output unlike the normal desirable output. This research attempts to address the inclusion of such undesirable output and investigate the theoretical implication and potential application towards the development of multi-stage DEA model.
A tool model for predicting atmospheric kinetics with sensitivity analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2001-01-01
A package( a tool model) for program of predicting atmospheric chemical kinetics with sensitivity analysis is presented. The new direct method of calculating the first order sensitivity coefficients using sparse matrix technology to chemical kinetics is included in the tool model, it is only necessary to triangularize the matrix related to the Jacobian matrix of the model equation. The Gear type procedure is used to integrate amodel equation and its coupled auxiliary sensitivity coefficient equations. The FORTRAN subroutines of the model equation, the sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian analytical expressions are generated automatically from a chemical mechanism. The kinetic representation for the model equation and its sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian matrix is presented. Various FORTRAN subroutines in packages, such as SLODE, modified MA28, Gear package, with which the program runs in conjunction are recommended.The photo-oxidation of dimethyl disulfide is used for illustration.
The modelling and analysis of the mechanics of ropes
Leech, C M
2014-01-01
This book considers the modelling and analysis of the many types of ropes, linear fibre assemblies. The construction of these structures is very diverse and in the work these are considered from the modelling point of view. As well as the conventional twisted structures, braid and plaited structures and parallel assemblies are modelled and analysed, first for their assembly and secondly for their mechanical behaviour. Also since the components are assemblies of components, fibres into yarns, into strands, and into ropes the hierarchical nature of the construction is considered. The focus of the modelling is essentially toward load extension behaviour but there is reference to bending of ropes, encompassed by the two extremes, no slip between the components and zero friction resistance to component slip. Friction in ropes is considered both between the rope components, sliding, sawing and scissoring, and within the components, dilation and distortion, these latter modes being used to model component set, the p...
Modeling and analysis of transport in the mammary glands
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Quezada, Ana; Vafai, Kambiz
2014-01-01
The transport of three toxins moving from the blood stream into the ducts of the mammary glands is analyzed in this work. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from the literature. The utility of the model lies in its potential to improve our understanding of toxin transport as a pre-disposing factor to breast cancer. This work is based on a multi-layer transport model to analyze the toxins present in the breast milk. The breast milk in comparison with other sampling strategies allows us to understand the mass transport of toxins once inside the bloodstream of breastfeeding women. The multi-layer model presented describes the transport of caffeine, DDT and cimetidine. The analysis performed takes into account the unique transport mechanisms for each of the toxins. Our model predicts the movement of toxins and/or drugs within the mammary glands as well as their bioaccumulation in the tissues. (paper)
A simple model for the dynamic analysis of deteriorating structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andreaus, U.; Ceradini, G.; D'Asdia, P.
1983-01-01
A simple model exhibiting a multi-linear constitutive law is presented which describes the behaviour of structural members and subassemblages under severe cyclic loading. The proposed model allows for: 1) pinched form of force-displacement diagrams due to, e.g., cracks in reinforced concrete members and masonry panels; 2) slippage effects due to lack of bond of steel bars in reinforced concrete and clearances in steel bolted connections; 3) post-buckling behaviour of subassemblages with unstable members; 4) cumulative damage affecting strength and/or stiffness at low cycle fatigue. The parameters governing the model behaviour have to be estimated on the basis of experimental results. The model is well suitable for analysis under statically applied cyclic displacements and forces, and under earthquake excitation. An X-type bracing system is then worked out where the member behaviour is schematized according to the proposed model. (orig.)
Modeling and analysis of transport in the mammary glands
Quezada, Ana; Vafai, Kambiz
2014-08-01
The transport of three toxins moving from the blood stream into the ducts of the mammary glands is analyzed in this work. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from the literature. The utility of the model lies in its potential to improve our understanding of toxin transport as a pre-disposing factor to breast cancer. This work is based on a multi-layer transport model to analyze the toxins present in the breast milk. The breast milk in comparison with other sampling strategies allows us to understand the mass transport of toxins once inside the bloodstream of breastfeeding women. The multi-layer model presented describes the transport of caffeine, DDT and cimetidine. The analysis performed takes into account the unique transport mechanisms for each of the toxins. Our model predicts the movement of toxins and/or drugs within the mammary glands as well as their bioaccumulation in the tissues.
Mathematical modelling and linear stability analysis of laser fusion cutting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hermanns, Torsten; Schulz, Wolfgang; Vossen, Georg; Thombansen, Ulrich
2016-01-01
A model for laser fusion cutting is presented and investigated by linear stability analysis in order to study the tendency for dynamic behavior and subsequent ripple formation. The result is a so called stability function that describes the correlation of the setting values of the process and the process’ amount of dynamic behavior.
Sensitivity analysis of physiochemical interaction model: which pair ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... of two model parameters at a time on the solution trajectory of physiochemical interaction over a time interval. Our aim is to use this powerful mathematical technique to select the important pair of parameters of this physical process which is cost-effective. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 ...
Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...
Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.
Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng
2014-04-01
Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.
Sensitivity Analysis of Mixed Models for Incomplete Longitudinal Data
Xu, Shu; Blozis, Shelley A.
2011-01-01
Mixed models are used for the analysis of data measured over time to study population-level change and individual differences in change characteristics. Linear and nonlinear functions may be used to describe a longitudinal response, individuals need not be observed at the same time points, and missing data, assumed to be missing at random (MAR),…
Safety analysis report on Model UC-609 shipping package
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sandberg, R.R.
1977-08-01
This Safety Analysis Report for Packaging demonstrates that model UC-609 shipping package can safely transport tritium in any of its forms. The package and its contents are described. The package when subjected to the transport conditions specified in the Code of Federal Regulations, Title 10, Part 71 is evaluated. Finally, compliance with these regulations is discussed
Spatial Econometric data analysis: moving beyond traditional models
Florax, R.J.G.M.; Vlist, van der A.J.
2003-01-01
This article appraises recent advances in the spatial econometric literature. It serves as the introduction too collection of new papers on spatial econometric data analysis brought together in this special issue, dealing specifically with new extensions to the spatial econometric modeling
Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model
Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.
2010-01-01
in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Application of multilinear regression analysis in modeling of soil ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The application of Multi-Linear Regression Analysis (MLRA) model for predicting soil properties in Calabar South offers a technical guide and solution in foundation designs problems in the area. Forty-five soil samples were collected from fifteen different boreholes at a different depth and 270 tests were carried out for CBR, ...
Soil Retaining Structures : Development of models for structural analysis
Bakker, K.J.
2000-01-01
The topic of this thesis is the development of models for the structural analysis of soil retaining structures. The soil retaining structures being looked at are; block revetments, flexible retaining walls and bored tunnels in soft soil. Within this context typical structural behavior of these
Mathematical annuity models application in cash flow analysis ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Mathematical annuity models application in cash flow analysis. ... We also compare the cost efficiency between Amortisation and Sinking fund loan repayment as prevalent in financial institutions. Keywords: Annuity, Amortisation, Sinking Fund, Present and Future Value Annuity, Maturity date and Redemption value.
Model-based analysis and simulation of regenerative heat wheel
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wu, Zhuang; Melnik, Roderick V. N.; Borup, F.
2006-01-01
The rotary regenerator (also called the heat wheel) is an important component of energy intensive sectors, which is used in many heat recovery systems. In this paper, a model-based analysis of a rotary regenerator is carried out with a major emphasis given to the development and implementation of...
Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saltelli, Andrea; Ratto, Marco; Tarantola, Stefano; Campolongo, Francesca
2006-01-01
Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA
Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Saltelli, Andrea [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: andrea.saltelli@jrc.it; Ratto, Marco [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Tarantola, Stefano [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Campolongo, Francesca [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy)
2006-10-15
Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA.
Hamiltonian model analysis of ππ scattering and production
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Obu, Mitsuaki
2000-01-01
A simple Hamiltonian model for ππ scattering and production is presented which incorporates resonant and background interactions. Analysis of isoscalar S wave ππ phase shift indicates that the background interaction plays only a minor role and the σ may be a dynamical resonance which is not originated from a corresponding bare state. (author)
Mathematical model for safety analysis of heavy water power reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Milovanovic, M.; Humo, E.; Mitrovic, S.
1966-01-01
Fundamental information in formulating the mathematical model for accident analysis is concerned with reactivity changes of the system. These parameters are: changes of fuel and moderator temperature, changes of the upper reflector thickness, reactivity changes due to moderator density variation dependent on the steam quantity and neutron flux distribution in the core
Analysis of a multi-server queueing model of ABR
R. Núñez Queija (Rudesindo); O.J. Boxma (Onno)
1996-01-01
textabstractIn this paper we present a queueing model for the performance a-na-ly-sis of ABR traffic in ATM networks. We consider a multi-channel service station with two types of customers, the first having preemptive priority over the second. The arrivals occur according to two independent Poisson
Mathematical modelling and linear stability analysis of laser fusion cutting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hermanns, Torsten; Schulz, Wolfgang [RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Nonlinear Dynamics, Steinbachstr. 15, 52047 Aachen (Germany); Vossen, Georg [Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, Chair for Applied Mathematics and Numerical Simulations, Reinarzstr.. 49, 47805 Krefeld (Germany); Thombansen, Ulrich [RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Laser Technology, Steinbachstr. 15, 52047 Aachen (Germany)
2016-06-08
A model for laser fusion cutting is presented and investigated by linear stability analysis in order to study the tendency for dynamic behavior and subsequent ripple formation. The result is a so called stability function that describes the correlation of the setting values of the process and the process’ amount of dynamic behavior.
Isogeometric analysis of a multiphase porous media model for concrete
Remij, E.W.; Pesavento, F.; Bazilevs, Y.; Smeulders, D.M.J.; Schrefler, B.A.; Huyghe, J.M.
2018-01-01
This paper presents isogeometric analysis of a hygro-thermo-chemo-mechanical concrete model at early age and beyond. Balance equations are introduced at the microscale and averaged to obtain balance equations at the macroscale. Constitutive laws are then applied directly at the macroscale. The final
Accident Analysis Methods and Models — a Systematic Literature Review
Wienen, Hans Christian Augustijn; Bukhsh, Faiza Allah; Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, Roelf J.
2017-01-01
As part of our co-operation with the Telecommunication Agency of the Netherlands, we want to formulate an accident analysis method and model for use in incidents in telecommunications that cause service unavailability. In order to not re-invent the wheel, we wanted to first get an overview of all
Model-independent analysis with BPM correlation matrices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Irwin, J.; Wang, C.X.; Yan, Y.T.; Bane, K.; Cai, Y.; Decker, F.; Minty, M.; Stupakov, G.; Zimmermann, F.
1998-06-01
The authors discuss techniques for Model-Independent Analysis (MIA) of a beamline using correlation matrices of physical variables and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) of a beamline BPM matrix. The beamline matrix is formed from BPM readings for a large number of pulses. The method has been applied to the Linear Accelerator of the SLAC Linear Collider (SLC)
Illustrating a Model-Game-Model Paradigm for Using Human Wargames in Analysis
2017-02-01
example, a risk -taking model with glorious objectives may give little weight to worst-case possibilities; a risk - averse model concerned primarily with... framing than with details. How can an analytic process that includes gaming contribute? Figure 1 uses the metaphor of learning a game such as chess when...strategies. We might then do some analysis and report tentative conclusions, including suggestions on how to frame mental models, but we would also want
Adaptive Modeling, Engineering Analysis and Design of Advanced Aerospace Vehicles
Mukhopadhyay, Vivek; Hsu, Su-Yuen; Mason, Brian H.; Hicks, Mike D.; Jones, William T.; Sleight, David W.; Chun, Julio; Spangler, Jan L.; Kamhawi, Hilmi; Dahl, Jorgen L.
2006-01-01
This paper describes initial progress towards the development and enhancement of a set of software tools for rapid adaptive modeling, and conceptual design of advanced aerospace vehicle concepts. With demanding structural and aerodynamic performance requirements, these high fidelity geometry based modeling tools are essential for rapid and accurate engineering analysis at the early concept development stage. This adaptive modeling tool was used for generating vehicle parametric geometry, outer mold line and detailed internal structural layout of wing, fuselage, skin, spars, ribs, control surfaces, frames, bulkheads, floors, etc., that facilitated rapid finite element analysis, sizing study and weight optimization. The high quality outer mold line enabled rapid aerodynamic analysis in order to provide reliable design data at critical flight conditions. Example application for structural design of a conventional aircraft and a high altitude long endurance vehicle configuration are presented. This work was performed under the Conceptual Design Shop sub-project within the Efficient Aerodynamic Shape and Integration project, under the former Vehicle Systems Program. The project objective was to design and assess unconventional atmospheric vehicle concepts efficiently and confidently. The implementation may also dramatically facilitate physics-based systems analysis for the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Mission. In addition to providing technology for design and development of unconventional aircraft, the techniques for generation of accurate geometry and internal sub-structure and the automated interface with the high fidelity analysis codes could also be applied towards the design of vehicles for the NASA Exploration and Space Science Mission projects.
Modelling and analysis of real-time and hybrid systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Olivero, A
1994-09-29
This work deals with the modelling and analysis of real-time and hybrid systems. We first present the timed-graphs as model for the real-time systems and we recall the basic notions of the analysis of real-time systems. We describe the temporal properties on the timed-graphs using TCTL formulas. We consider two methods for property verification: in one hand we study the symbolic model-checking (based on backward analysis) and in the other hand we propose a verification method derived of the construction of the simulation graph (based on forward analysis). Both methods have been implemented within the KRONOS verification tool. Their application for the automatic verification on several real-time systems confirms the practical interest of our approach. In a second part we study the hybrid systems, systems combining discrete components with continuous ones. As in the general case the analysis of this king of systems is not decidable, we identify two sub-classes of hybrid systems and we give a construction based method for the generation of a timed-graph from an element into the sub-classes. We prove that in one case the timed-graph obtained is bi-similar with the considered system and that there exists a simulation in the other case. These relationships allow the application of the described technics on the hybrid systems into the defined sub-classes. (authors). 60 refs., 43 figs., 8 tabs., 2 annexes.
Performance analysis of NOAA tropospheric signal delay model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ibrahim, Hassan E; El-Rabbany, Ahmed
2011-01-01
Tropospheric delay is one of the dominant global positioning system (GPS) errors, which degrades the positioning accuracy. Recent development in tropospheric modeling relies on implementation of more accurate numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In North America one of the NWP-based tropospheric correction models is the NOAA Tropospheric Signal Delay Model (NOAATrop), which was developed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Because of its potential to improve the GPS positioning accuracy, the NOAATrop model became the focus of many researchers. In this paper, we analyzed the performance of the NOAATrop model and examined its effect on ionosphere-free-based precise point positioning (PPP) solution. We generated 3 year long tropospheric zenith total delay (ZTD) data series for the NOAATrop model, Hopfield model, and the International GNSS Services (IGS) final tropospheric correction product, respectively. These data sets were generated at ten IGS reference stations spanning Canada and the United States. We analyzed the NOAATrop ZTD data series and compared them with those of the Hopfield model. The IGS final tropospheric product was used as a reference. The analysis shows that the performance of the NOAATrop model is a function of both season (time of the year) and geographical location. However, its performance was superior to the Hopfield model in all cases. We further investigated the effect of implementing the NOAATrop model on the ionosphere-free-based PPP solution convergence and accuracy. It is shown that the use of the NOAATrop model improved the PPP solution convergence by 1%, 10% and 15% for the latitude, longitude and height components, respectively
Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.
Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep
2009-08-31
Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future
A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis
Turksen, I. B.; Willson, Ian A.
1992-01-01
Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share
Functional linear models for association analysis of quantitative traits.
Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Mills, James L; Wilson, Alexander F; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Xiong, Momiao
2013-11-01
Functional linear models are developed in this paper for testing associations between quantitative traits and genetic variants, which can be rare variants or common variants or the combination of the two. By treating multiple genetic variants of an individual in a human population as a realization of a stochastic process, the genome of an individual in a chromosome region is a continuum of sequence data rather than discrete observations. The genome of an individual is viewed as a stochastic function that contains both linkage and linkage disequilibrium (LD) information of the genetic markers. By using techniques of functional data analysis, both fixed and mixed effect functional linear models are built to test the association between quantitative traits and genetic variants adjusting for covariates. After extensive simulation analysis, it is shown that the F-distributed tests of the proposed fixed effect functional linear models have higher power than that of sequence kernel association test (SKAT) and its optimal unified test (SKAT-O) for three scenarios in most cases: (1) the causal variants are all rare, (2) the causal variants are both rare and common, and (3) the causal variants are common. The superior performance of the fixed effect functional linear models is most likely due to its optimal utilization of both genetic linkage and LD information of multiple genetic variants in a genome and similarity among different individuals, while SKAT and SKAT-O only model the similarities and pairwise LD but do not model linkage and higher order LD information sufficiently. In addition, the proposed fixed effect models generate accurate type I error rates in simulation studies. We also show that the functional kernel score tests of the proposed mixed effect functional linear models are preferable in candidate gene analysis and small sample problems. The methods are applied to analyze three biochemical traits in data from the Trinity Students Study. © 2013 WILEY
Predicate Argument Structure Analysis for Use Case Description Modeling
Takeuchi, Hironori; Nakamura, Taiga; Yamaguchi, Takahira
In a large software system development project, many documents are prepared and updated frequently. In such a situation, support is needed for looking through these documents easily to identify inconsistencies and to maintain traceability. In this research, we focus on the requirements documents such as use cases and consider how to create models from the use case descriptions in unformatted text. In the model construction, we propose a few semantic constraints based on the features of the use cases and use them for a predicate argument structure analysis to assign semantic labels to actors and actions. With this approach, we show that we can assign semantic labels without enhancing any existing general lexical resources such as case frame dictionaries and design a less language-dependent model construction architecture. By using the constructed model, we consider a system for quality analysis of the use cases and automated test case generation to keep the traceability between document sets. We evaluated the reuse of the existing use cases and generated test case steps automatically with the proposed prototype system from real-world use cases in the development of a system using a packaged application. Based on the evaluation, we show how to construct models with high precision from English and Japanese use case data. Also, we could generate good test cases for about 90% of the real use cases through the manual improvement of the descriptions based on the feedback from the quality analysis system.
Operational modal analysis modeling, Bayesian inference, uncertainty laws
Au, Siu-Kui
2017-01-01
This book presents operational modal analysis (OMA), employing a coherent and comprehensive Bayesian framework for modal identification and covering stochastic modeling, theoretical formulations, computational algorithms, and practical applications. Mathematical similarities and philosophical differences between Bayesian and classical statistical approaches to system identification are discussed, allowing their mathematical tools to be shared and their results correctly interpreted. Many chapters can be used as lecture notes for the general topic they cover beyond the OMA context. After an introductory chapter (1), Chapters 2–7 present the general theory of stochastic modeling and analysis of ambient vibrations. Readers are first introduced to the spectral analysis of deterministic time series (2) and structural dynamics (3), which do not require the use of probability concepts. The concepts and techniques in these chapters are subsequently extended to a probabilistic context in Chapter 4 (on stochastic pro...
Analysis of DIRAC's behavior using model checking with process algebra
Remenska, Daniela; Willemse, Tim; Bal, Henri; Verstoep, Kees; Fokkink, Wan; Charpentier, Philippe; Diaz, Ricardo Graciani; Lanciotti, Elisa; Roiser, Stefan; Ciba, Krzysztof
2012-01-01
DIRAC is the grid solution developed to support LHCb production activities as well as user data analysis. It consists of distributed services and agents delivering the workload to the grid resources. Services maintain database back-ends to store dynamic state information of entities such as jobs, queues, staging requests, etc. Agents use polling to check and possibly react to changes in the system state. Each agent's logic is relatively simple, the main complexity lies in their cooperation. Agents run concurrently, and collaborate using the databases as shared memory. The databases can be accessed directly by the agents if running locally or through a DIRAC service interface if necessary. This shared-memory model causes entities to occasionally get into inconsistent states. Tracing and fixing such problems becomes formidable due to the inherent parallelism present. We propose more rigorous methods to cope with this. Model checking is one such technique for analysis of an abstract model of a system. Unlike con...
Therapeutic Implications from Sensitivity Analysis of Tumor Angiogenesis Models
Poleszczuk, Jan; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Enderling, Heiko
2015-01-01
Anti-angiogenic cancer treatments induce tumor starvation and regression by targeting the tumor vasculature that delivers oxygen and nutrients. Mathematical models prove valuable tools to study the proof-of-concept, efficacy and underlying mechanisms of such treatment approaches. The effects of parameter value uncertainties for two models of tumor development under angiogenic signaling and anti-angiogenic treatment are studied. Data fitting is performed to compare predictions of both models and to obtain nominal parameter values for sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the success of different cancer treatments depends on tumor size and tumor intrinsic parameters. In particular, we show that tumors with ample vascular support can be successfully targeted with conventional cytotoxic treatments. On the other hand, tumors with curtailed vascular support are not limited by their growth rate and therefore interruption of neovascularization emerges as the most promising treatment target. PMID:25785600
Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.
Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D
2016-10-01
Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
A flammability and combustion model for integrated accident analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Plys, M.G.; Astleford, R.D.; Epstein, M.
1988-01-01
A model for flammability characteristics and combustion of hydrogen and carbon monoxide mixtures is presented for application to severe accident analysis of Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWR's). Flammability of general mixtures for thermodynamic conditions anticipated during a severe accident is quantified with a new correlation technique applied to data for several fuel and inertant mixtures and using accepted methods for combining these data. Combustion behavior is quantified by a mechanistic model consisting of a continuity and momentum balance for the burned gases, and considering an uncertainty parameter to match the idealized process to experiment. Benchmarks against experiment demonstrate the validity of this approach for a single recommended value of the flame flux multiplier parameter. The models presented here are equally applicable to analysis of current LWR's. 21 refs., 16 figs., 6 tabs
Signal analysis of accelerometry data using gravity-based modeling
Davey, Neil P.; James, Daniel A.; Anderson, Megan E.
2004-03-01
Triaxial accelerometers have been used to measure human movement parameters in swimming. Interpretation of data is difficult due to interference sources including interaction of external bodies. In this investigation the authors developed a model to simulate the physical movement of the lower back. Theoretical accelerometery outputs were derived thus giving an ideal, or noiseless dataset. An experimental data collection apparatus was developed by adapting a system to the aquatic environment for investigation of swimming. Model data was compared against recorded data and showed strong correlation. Comparison of recorded and modeled data can be used to identify changes in body movement, this is especially useful when cyclic patterns are present in the activity. Strong correlations between data sets allowed development of signal processing algorithms for swimming stroke analysis using first the pure noiseless data set which were then applied to performance data. Video analysis was also used to validate study results and has shown potential to provide acceptable results.
Image decomposition as a tool for validating stress analysis models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mottershead J.
2010-06-01
Full Text Available It is good practice to validate analytical and numerical models used in stress analysis for engineering design by comparison with measurements obtained from real components either in-service or in the laboratory. In reality, this critical step is often neglected or reduced to placing a single strain gage at the predicted hot-spot of stress. Modern techniques of optical analysis allow full-field maps of displacement, strain and, or stress to be obtained from real components with relative ease and at modest cost. However, validations continued to be performed only at predicted and, or observed hot-spots and most of the wealth of data is ignored. It is proposed that image decomposition methods, commonly employed in techniques such as fingerprinting and iris recognition, can be employed to validate stress analysis models by comparing all of the key features in the data from the experiment and the model. Image decomposition techniques such as Zernike moments and Fourier transforms have been used to decompose full-field distributions for strain generated from optical techniques such as digital image correlation and thermoelastic stress analysis as well as from analytical and numerical models by treating the strain distributions as images. The result of the decomposition is 101 to 102 image descriptors instead of the 105 or 106 pixels in the original data. As a consequence, it is relatively easy to make a statistical comparison of the image descriptors from the experiment and from the analytical/numerical model and to provide a quantitative assessment of the stress analysis.
Dynamic Chest Image Analysis: Model-Based Perfusion Analysis in Dynamic Pulmonary Imaging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kiuru Aaro
2003-01-01
Full Text Available The "Dynamic Chest Image Analysis" project aims to develop model-based computer analysis and visualization methods for showing focal and general abnormalities of lung ventilation and perfusion based on a sequence of digital chest fluoroscopy frames collected with the dynamic pulmonary imaging technique. We have proposed and evaluated a multiresolutional method with an explicit ventilation model for ventilation analysis. This paper presents a new model-based method for pulmonary perfusion analysis. According to perfusion properties, we first devise a novel mathematical function to form a perfusion model. A simple yet accurate approach is further introduced to extract cardiac systolic and diastolic phases from the heart, so that this cardiac information may be utilized to accelerate the perfusion analysis and improve its sensitivity in detecting pulmonary perfusion abnormalities. This makes perfusion analysis not only fast but also robust in computation; consequently, perfusion analysis becomes computationally feasible without using contrast media. Our clinical case studies with 52 patients show that this technique is effective for pulmonary embolism even without using contrast media, demonstrating consistent correlations with computed tomography (CT and nuclear medicine (NM studies. This fluoroscopical examination takes only about 2 seconds for perfusion study with only low radiation dose to patient, involving no preparation, no radioactive isotopes, and no contrast media.
Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yucemen, M.S.
1978-12-01
The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu
Comparative analysis of calculation models of railway subgrade
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I.O. Sviatko
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Purpose. In transport engineering structures design, the primary task is to determine the parameters of foundation soil and nuances of its work under loads. It is very important to determine the parameters of shear resistance and the parameters, determining the development of deep deformations in foundation soils, while calculating the soil subgrade - upper track structure interaction. Search for generalized numerical modeling methods of embankment foundation soil work that include not only the analysis of the foundation stress state but also of its deformed one. Methodology. The analysis of existing modern and classical methods of numerical simulation of soil samples under static load was made. Findings. According to traditional methods of analysis of ground masses work, limitation and the qualitative estimation of subgrade deformations is possible only indirectly, through the estimation of stress and comparison of received values with the boundary ones. Originality. A new computational model was proposed in which it will be applied not only classical approach analysis of the soil subgrade stress state, but deformed state will be also taken into account. Practical value. The analysis showed that for accurate analysis of ground masses work it is necessary to develop a generalized methodology for analyzing of the rolling stock - railway subgrade interaction, which will use not only the classical approach of analyzing the soil subgrade stress state, but also take into account its deformed one.
Urban Sprawl Analysis and Modeling in Asmara, Eritrea
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mussie G. Tewolde
2011-09-01
Full Text Available The extension of urban perimeter markedly cuts available productive land. Hence, studies in urban sprawl analysis and modeling play an important role to ensure sustainable urban development. The urbanization pattern of the Greater Asmara Area (GAA, the capital of Eritrea, was studied. Satellite images and geospatial tools were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal urban landuse changes. Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA, Landuse Cover Change (LUCC analysis and urban sprawl analysis using Shannon Entropy were carried out. The Land Change Modeler (LCM was used to develop a model of urban growth. The Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network was employed to model the transition potential maps with an accuracy of 85.9% and these were used as an input for the ‘actual’ urban modeling with Markov chains. Model validation was assessed and a scenario of urban land use change of the GAA up to year 2020 was presented. The result of the study indicated that the built-up area has tripled in size (increased by 4,441 ha between 1989 and 2009. Specially, after year 2000 urban sprawl in GAA caused large scale encroachment on high potential agricultural lands and plantation cover. The scenario for year 2020 shows an increase of the built-up areas by 1,484 ha (25% which may cause further loss. The study indicated that the land allocation system in the GAA overrode the landuse plan, which caused the loss of agricultural land and plantation cover. The recommended policy options might support decision makers to resolve further loss of agricultural land and plantation cover and to achieve sustainable urban development planning in the GAA.
Capital Cost Optimization for Prefabrication: A Factor Analysis Evaluation Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hong Xue
2018-01-01
Full Text Available High capital cost is a significant hindrance to the promotion of prefabrication. In order to optimize cost management and reduce capital cost, this study aims to explore the latent factors and factor analysis evaluation model. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore potential variables and then questionnaire survey was employed to collect professionals’ views on their effects. After data collection, exploratory factor analysis was adopted to explore the latent factors. Seven latent factors were identified, including “Management Index”, “Construction Dissipation Index”, “Productivity Index”, “Design Efficiency Index”, “Transport Dissipation Index”, “Material increment Index” and “Depreciation amortization Index”. With these latent factors, a factor analysis evaluation model (FAEM, divided into factor analysis model (FAM and comprehensive evaluation model (CEM, was established. The FAM was used to explore the effect of observed variables on the high capital cost of prefabrication, while the CEM was used to evaluate comprehensive cost management level on prefabrication projects. Case studies were conducted to verify the models. The results revealed that collaborative management had a positive effect on capital cost of prefabrication. Material increment costs and labor costs had significant impacts on production cost. This study demonstrated the potential of on-site management and standardization design to reduce capital cost. Hence, collaborative management is necessary for cost management of prefabrication. Innovation and detailed design were needed to improve cost performance. The new form of precast component factories can be explored to reduce transportation cost. Meanwhile, targeted strategies can be adopted for different prefabrication projects. The findings optimized the capital cost and improved the cost performance through providing an evaluation and optimization model, which helps managers to
A musculoskeletal foot model for clinical gait analysis.
Saraswat, Prabhav; Andersen, Michael S; Macwilliams, Bruce A
2010-06-18
Several full body musculoskeletal models have been developed for research applications and these models may potentially be developed into useful clinical tools to assess gait pathologies. Existing full-body musculoskeletal models treat the foot as a single segment and ignore the motions of the intrinsic joints of the foot. This assumption limits the use of such models in clinical cases with significant foot deformities. Therefore, a three-segment musculoskeletal model of the foot was developed to match the segmentation of a recently developed multi-segment kinematic foot model. All the muscles and ligaments of the foot spanning the modeled joints were included. Muscle pathways were adjusted with an optimization routine to minimize the difference between the muscle flexion-extension moment arms from the model and moment arms reported in literature. The model was driven by walking data from five normal pediatric subjects (aged 10.6+/-1.57 years) and muscle forces and activation levels required to produce joint motions were calculated using an inverse dynamic analysis approach. Due to the close proximity of markers on the foot, small marker placement error during motion data collection may lead to significant differences in musculoskeletal model outcomes. Therefore, an optimization routine was developed to enforce joint constraints, optimally scale each segment length and adjust marker positions. To evaluate the model outcomes, the muscle activation patterns during walking were compared with electromyography (EMG) activation patterns reported in the literature. Model-generated muscle activation patterns were observed to be similar to the EMG activation patterns. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Multiway modeling and analysis in stem cell systems biology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vandenberg Scott L
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Systems biology refers to multidisciplinary approaches designed to uncover emergent properties of biological systems. Stem cells are an attractive target for this analysis, due to their broad therapeutic potential. A central theme of systems biology is the use of computational modeling to reconstruct complex systems from a wealth of reductionist, molecular data (e.g., gene/protein expression, signal transduction activity, metabolic activity, etc.. A number of deterministic, probabilistic, and statistical learning models are used to understand sophisticated cellular behaviors such as protein expression during cellular differentiation and the activity of signaling networks. However, many of these models are bimodal i.e., they only consider row-column relationships. In contrast, multiway modeling techniques (also known as tensor models can analyze multimodal data, which capture much more information about complex behaviors such as cell differentiation. In particular, tensors can be very powerful tools for modeling the dynamic activity of biological networks over time. Here, we review the application of systems biology to stem cells and illustrate application of tensor analysis to model collagen-induced osteogenic differentiation of human mesenchymal stem cells. Results We applied Tucker1, Tucker3, and Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC models to identify protein/gene expression patterns during extracellular matrix-induced osteogenic differentiation of human mesenchymal stem cells. In one case, we organized our data into a tensor of type protein/gene locus link × gene ontology category × osteogenic stimulant, and found that our cells expressed two distinct, stimulus-dependent sets of functionally related genes as they underwent osteogenic differentiation. In a second case, we organized DNA microarray data in a three-way tensor of gene IDs × osteogenic stimulus × replicates, and found that application of tensile strain to a