Forecasting differences in life expectancy by education.

Science.gov (United States)

van Baal, Pieter; Peters, Frederik; Mackenbach, Johan; Nusselder, Wilma

2016-07-01

Forecasts of life expectancy (LE) have fuelled debates about the sustainability and dependability of pension and healthcare systems. Of relevance to these debates are inequalities in LE by education. In this paper, we present a method of forecasting LE for different educational groups within a population. As a basic framework we use the Li-Lee model that was developed to forecast mortality coherently for different groups. We adapted this model to distinguish between overall, sex-specific, and education-specific trends in mortality, and extrapolated these time trends in a flexible manner. We illustrate our method for the population aged 65 and over in the Netherlands, using several data sources and spanning different periods. The results suggest that LE is likely to increase for all educational groups, but that differences in LE between educational groups will widen. Sensitivity analyses illustrate the advantages of our proposed method.

Forecasting the mortality rates of Malaysian population using Heligman-Pollard model

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Mohd, Razak; Ngataman, Nuraini; Abrisam, Wan Nur Azifah Wan Mohd

2017-08-01

Actuaries, demographers and other professionals have always been aware of the critical importance of mortality forecasting due to declining trend of mortality and continuous increases in life expectancy. Heligman-Pollard model was introduced in 1980 and has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. This paper aims to estimate an eight-parameter model based on Heligman and Pollard's law of mortality. Since the model involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 7.0 (MATLAB 7.0) software will be used in order to estimate the parameters. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) will be applied to forecast all the parameters according to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The empirical data sets of Malaysian population for period of 1981 to 2015 for both genders will be considered, which the period of 1981 to 2010 will be used as "training set" and the period of 2011 to 2015 as "testing set". In order to investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecast results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The result shows that Heligman-Pollard model fit well for male population at all ages while the model seems to underestimate the mortality rates for female population at the older ages.

Impact of the Garrett Lee Smith youth suicide prevention program on suicide mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Walrath, Christine; Garraza, Lucas Godoy; Reid, Hailey; Goldston, David B; McKeon, Richard

2015-05-01

We examined whether a reduction in youth suicide mortality occurred between 2007 and 2010 that could reasonably be attributed to Garrett Lee Smith (GLS) program efforts. We compared youth mortality rates across time between counties that implemented GLS-funded gatekeeper training sessions (the most frequently implemented suicide prevention strategy among grantees) and a set of matched counties in which no GLS-funded training occurred. A rich set of background characteristics, including preintervention mortality rates, was accounted for with a combination of propensity score-based techniques. We also analyzed closely related outcomes that we did not expect to be affected by GLS as control outcomes. Counties implementing GLS training had significantly lower suicide rates among the population aged 10 to 24 years the year after GLS training than similar counties that did not implement GLS training (1.33 fewer deaths per 100 000; P = .02). Simultaneously, we found no significant difference in terms of adult suicide mortality rates or nonsuicide youth mortality the year after the implementation. These results support the existence of an important reduction in youth suicide rates resulting from the implementation of GLS suicide prevention programming.

A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haldrup, Niels; Rosenskjold, Carsten Paysen T.

The prototypical Lee-Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper we propose a factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are designed to influence the age groups differently via...... on the loading functions, the factors are not designed to be orthogonal but can be dependent and can possibly cointegrate when the factors have unit roots. We suggest two estimation procedures similar to the estimation of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel term structure model. First, a two-step nonlinear least squares...... procedure based on cross-section regressions together with a separate model to estimate the dynamics of the factors. Second, we suggest a fully specified model estimated by maximum likelihood via the Kalman filter recursions after the model is put on state space form. We demonstrate the methodology for US...

Coherent Forecasts of Mortality with Compositional Data Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Oeppen, Jim

2017-01-01

Data Analysis (CoDa) of the life table distribution of deaths. We adapt existing coherent and non–coherent forecasting models to CoDa and compare their results. Results We apply our coherent method to the female mortality of 15 Western European countries and show that our proposed strategy would have...

Research Article Special Issue

African Journals Online (AJOL)

pc

2017-11-10

Nov 10, 2017 ... We fit age and gender specific mortality rates of each ... An increase in human life expectancy together with a decrease in fertility rates over the last ... U.S data, the Lee-Carter model is successful in term of accuracy as the ...

Jimmy Carter and the Rhetoric of Charisma.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, J. Louis, III

1979-01-01

Analyzes Jimmy Carter's success in the 1976 presidential primaries in terms of his rhetorical style based on Max Weber's concept of charisma and Ernest Bormann's theory of fantasy and rhetorical vision. The combination of Carter's charismatic message and the country's social fantasies produced his election. (JMF)

Sexuality and gender in contemporary women's Gothic fiction - Angela Carter's and Anne Rice's Vampires: Angela Carter's and Anne Rice's Vampires

OpenAIRE

Fernanda Sousa Carvalho

2009-01-01

xxx In this thesis, I provide an analysis of Angela Carter's and Anne Rice's works based on their depiction of vampires. My corpus is composed by Carter's short stories 'The Loves of Lady Purple' and 'The Lady of the House of Love' and by Rice's novels The Vampire Lestat and The Queen of the Damned. My analysis of this corpus is based on four approaches: a comparison between Carter's and Rice's works, supported by their common use of vampire characters; an investigation of how this use con...

Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

Science.gov (United States)

Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

2017-05-01

Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

Future healthy life expectancy among older adults in the US: a forecast based on cohort smoking and obesity history.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Bochen

2016-01-01

In the past three decades, the elderly population in the United States experienced increase in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (LE(ND)), but decrease in life expectancy with disability (LE(D)). Smoking and obesity are two major risk factors that had negative impacts on these trends. While smoking prevalence continues to decline in recent decades, obesity prevalence has been growing and is currently at a high level. This study aims to forecast the healthy life expectancy for older adults aged 55 to 85 in the US from 2011 to 2040, in relation to their smoking and obesity history. First, population-level mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) and individual-level disability data from the US National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to estimate the transition rates between different health states from 1982 to 2010, using a multi-state life table (MSLT) model. Second, the estimated transition rates were fitted and projected up to 2040, using a modified Lee-Carter model that incorporates cohort smoking and obesity history from NHIS. Mortality and morbidity for both sexes will continue to decline in the next decades. Relative to 2010, men are expected to have 3.2 years gain in LE(ND) and 0.8 years loss in LE(D). For women, there will be 1.8 years gain in LE(ND) and 0.8 years loss in LE(D). By 2040, men and women are expected to spend respectively 80 % and 75 % of their remaining life expectancy between 55 and 85 disability-free. Smoking and obesity have independent negative impacts on both the survival and disability of the US older population in the coming decades, and are responsible for the present and future gender disparity in mortality and morbidity. Overall, the US older population is expected to enjoy sustained health improvements and compression of disability, largely due to decline in smoking.

Gladys Carter - an advocate of higher education for nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Weir, R I

Gladys Carter was once well-known as an author of midwifery and nursing texts and articles. She was appointed the first Boots Scholar in Nursing Research at the University of Edinburgh in 1952. The outcome of her work, the Carter Report (unpublished) lent weight to the reform of the Nurse Tutors' course offered at that time by the RCN Scottish Board and to the establishment of the Department of Nursing Studies at the University of Edinburgh. This paper discusses the contributions made by Miss Carter to the case for higher education for nurses.

Chilly Senate gives Carter a hard time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1979-01-01

Is the United States Senate about to deliver the final coup de grace to President Jimmy Carter Initial reaction from the Senate to Carter's Salt II agreement with Soviet Premier Leonid Brezhnev certainly points that way. The Salt II agreement still has to be submitted to a Senate that is as yet decidedly undecided about whether to ratify it. Washington sources indicate that 70 of the 100 senators are uncommitted, and 67 members must support the treaty if it is to be ratified

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

Tussen liberalisme en conservatisme: de verkiezingscampagnes van Jimmy Carter (1962-1980)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Nijnatten, F.J.C.M.

2012-01-01

De overwinning van de zuidelijke Democraat Jimmy Carter bij de Amerikaanse presidentsverkiezingen van 1976 geldt voornamelijk als een gevolg van de Vietnamoorlog en het Watergateschandaal, crises die het vertrouwen van de bevolking in de regering hadden aangetast. Jimmy Carters campagnearchieven

Morality and Foreign Policy. A Symposium on President Carter's Stance.

Science.gov (United States)

Lefever, Ernest W., Ed.

This monograph contains a critical examination of President Carter's view on ethics and foreign policy as expressed in his commencement speech at Notre Dame University on May 22, 1977. The book is organized into three parts. Part 1 contains Mr. Carter's speech entitled, "Power for Humane Purposes." Part 2 contains nine responses to the…

Mortality forecast from gastroduodenal ulcer disease for different gender and age population groups in Ukraine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Duzhiy I.D.

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Until 2030 the ulcer mortality will have a growing trend as estimated by the World Health Organization. Detection of countries and population groups with high risks for the ulcer mortality is possible using forecast method. The authors made a forecast of mortality rate from complicated ulcer disease in males and females and their age groups (15-24, 25-34, 35-54, 55-74, over 75, 15 - over 75 in our country. The study included data of the World Health Organization Database from 1991 to 2012. The work analyzed absolute all-Ukrainian numbers of persons of both genders died from the ulcer causes (К25-К27 coded by the 10th International Diseases Classification. The relative mortality per 100 000 of alive persons of the same age was calculated de novo. The analysis of distribution laws and their estimation presents a trend of growth of the relative mortality. A remarkable increase of deaths from the ulcer disease is observed in males and females of the age after 55 years old. After the age of 75 years this trend is more expressed.

Carter G. Woodson Book Awards.

Science.gov (United States)

Social Education, 1999

1999-01-01

Presents the recipients of the 1999 Carter G. Woodson book awards that honor books focusing on ethnic minorities and race relations in a manner appropriate for young readers; the books cover topics that include the lives of Langston Hughes, Rosa Parks, and Ida B. Wells and the history of the Crow people. (CMK)

Not radical enough: why Jimmy Carter failed to change American foreign policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Itai Nartzizenfield Sneh

2009-03-01

Full Text Available El Presidente Jimmy Carter no consiguió traducir sus palabras e ideales referentes a derechos humanos a hechos y prácticas en la política exterior de E.E.U.U. Carter, ya en el primer período de su administración en 1976-77, tenía una perspectiva demasiado conservadora y tradicional con respecto a las relaciones internacionales. Sus ideas eran correctas, sin embargo seguió enfocando su política en la guerra fría más que en una puesta en práctica constante de un nuevo paradigma para los derechos humanos, especialmente con respecto a los aliados americanos en los territorios subdesarrollados. Carter no reformó suficientemente la práctica de la política exterior de los E.E.U.U. Él no creyó bastantes en la lucha por los derechos humanos así que fue imposible una modifica significativa de las prioridades tradicionales. Carter confió en las políticas, las conductas, las personalidades y estructuras administrativas vigentes. La intención de Carter de cambiar la política americana así como los principios y la comisión, fue minada seriamente por el Consejo de Seguridad Nacional (especialmente Zbigniew Brzezinksi mucho antes de los bien conocidos cambios de SALT II, de los tratados del Canal de Panamá, y del Oriente Medio.__________ABSTRACT:President Jimmy Carter failed to translate his words and ideals concerning human rights into deeds and practices in US foreign policy. Carter, already in the formative period of his administration in 1976-7, was too conservative and traditional in his outlook on international relations. While his heart was at the right place, the Cold War was still his focus rather than a consistent implementation of a new human rights paradigm, especially with respect to American allies in the Developing World. Carter did not sufficiently reform the practice of US foreign policy. He did not believe enough in advocating human rights so a meaningful recast of traditional priorities was difficult. Carter relied on

Carter's breeder policy has failed, claims Westinghouse manager

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1979-01-01

Nuclear nations developing liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) technology have not been dissuaded by President Carter's efforts to stop the breeder program as a way to control the proliferation of nuclear weapons. There is no evidence that Carter's policy of moral persuasion has had any impact on their efforts. A review of the eight leading countries cites their extensive progress in the areas of breeder technology and fuel reprocessing, while the US has made only slight gains. The Fast Flux Test Facility at Hanford is near completion, but the Clinch River project has been slowed to a minimum

Selling the Arc of Crisis: Promoting Foreign Policy Change during the Carter Presidency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

da Vinha Luis

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The Carter Administration came to Office seeking to continue a policy of détente. However, the Administration’s policy vis-à-vis the Soviets became more assertive throughout the Presidency, culminating in the Carter Doctrine. The current paper applies a conceptual framework for “issue selling” to argue that a more assertive foreign policy was being promoted by the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and his NSC staff since the early days of the Carter Presidency. By applying an assortment of issue selling strategies, Zbigniew Brzezinski and the NSC staff were able to exploit the communicative interactions amongst the political leadership to continuously promote a more forceful US policy towards the Soviets. By being able to interpret and define the problem representation facing the Administration, the APNSA was able initiate and continuously promote a wholesale policy transformation leading to the development of the Carter Doctrine.

Educational Policy in the Carter Years. Institute for Educational Leadership Policy Paper 5.

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Christopher T.; And Others

Two articles and a transcript of a colloquium discussion by seven practitioners/experts on the topic of educational policy in the Carter years are presented. The discussion group considered Carter's first year, zero-based budgeting, dimensions of leadership, the fiscal year 1979 budget, reorganization and a Department of Education, and the…

Use of Awamori-pressed Lees and Tofu Lees as Feed Ingredients for Growing Female Goats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Itsuki Nagamine

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Okinawan Awamori is produced by fermenting steamed indica rice with black mold, yeast, and water. Awamori-pressed lees is a by-product of the Awamori production process. Tofu lees is a by-product of the Tofu production process. This research consisted of two experiments conducted to elucidate whether or not dried Awamori-pressed lees and Tofu lees can be used as a mixed feed ingredient for raising female goats. In experiment 1, digestion trials were conducted to ascertain the nutritive values of dried Awamori-pressed lees and dried Tofu lees for goats. The digestible crude protein (DCP and total digestible nutrients (TDN contents of dried Awamori-pressed lees and Tofu lees were 22.5%, 22.5% (DCP, and 87.2%, 94.4% (TDN respectively. In experiment 2, 18 female goats (Japanese Saanen×Nubian, three months old, body weight 15.4±0.53 kg were divided into three groups of six animals (control feed group (CFG, Awamori-pressed lees mixed feed group (AMFG, Tofu lees mixed feed group (TMFG. The CFG control used feed containing 20% soybean meal as the main protein source, while the AMFG and TMFG treatments used feed mixed with 20% dried Awamori-pressed lees or dried Tofu lees. The groups were fed mixed feed (volume to provide 100 g/d increase in body weight twice a day (10:00, 16:00. The klein grass hay and water was given ad libitum. The hay intake was measured at 08:00 and 16:00. Body weight and size measurements were taken once a month. At the end of the experiment, a blood sample was drawn from the jugular vein of each animal. The DCP and TDN intakes in AMFG and TMFG showed no significant difference to the CFG. Cumulative measurements of growth in body weight, withers height, chest depth, chest girth, and hip width over the 10 mo period in the AMFG and TMFG were similar to the CFG. By contrast, cumulative growth in body length and hip height in the AMFG and TMFG tended to be larger than the CFG. Cumulative growth in chest width in the AMFG was

Use of Awamori-pressed Lees and Tofu Lees as Feed Ingredients for Growing Male Goats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Itsuki Nagamine

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Awamori is produced by fermenting steamed indica rice. Awamori-pressed lees is a by-product of the Awamori production process. Tofu lees is a by-product of the Tofu production process. Research was conducted to test if dried Awamori-pressed lees and Tofu lees can be used as a mixed feed ingredient for raising male goats. Eighteen male kids were divided into three groups of six animals (control feed group (CFG, Awamori-pressed lees mixed feed group (AMFG, Tofu lees mixed feed group (TMFG. The CFG used feed containing 20% soybean meal as the main protein source, while the AMFG and TMFG used feed mixed with 20% dried Awamori-pressed lees or dried Tofu lees. The groups were fed mixed feed (volume to provide 100 g/d increase in body weight and alfalfa hay cubes (2.0 kg/d twice a day (10:00, 16:00. Klein grass hay and water was given ad libitum. Hay intake was measured at 10:00 and 16:00. Body weight and size measurements were taken once a month. At the end of the experiment, a blood sample was drawn from the jugular vein of each animal and the carcass characteristics, the physical and chemical characteristics of loin were analyzed. DCP and TDN intakes in AMFG and TMFG showed no significant difference to the CFG. Cumulative measurements of growth in body weight and size over the 10 mo period in the AMFG and TMFG were similar to the CFG. Blood parameter values were similar to those in normal goats. Dressing carcass weight and percentages, and total weight of meat in the AMFG were similar to that in the CFG, but smaller in the TMFG. The compressed meat juice ratio was higher in both the TMFG and AMFG than the CFG. While the fat in corn, Awamori-pressed lees, and Tofu lees contains more than 50% linoleic acid, the loin fat in both the AMFG and TMFG was very low in linoleic acid due to the increase in the content of oleic acid, stearic acid, and palmitic acid. This indicates that feeding on AMF and TMF does not inhibit hydrogenation by ruminal

"All the World Is Gone to the Assembly": Elizabeth Carter's Headaches, Nerves, and (In)Sociability.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Mascha

Elizabeth Carter suffered from severe headaches all her life. Her letters are peppered with references to fits of "head-ach" so bad they made her bold enough to demand her own room wherever she visited, and to cherish a preference for solitude contrary to the ideal of Bluestocking sociability. Following her friends and physicians, she bowed to fashionable diagnoses in considering these headaches the result of a nervous constitution, and she was prescribed the usual remedies, including sociable trips to fashionable watering places. While positioning her sufferings within the frame of fashionable diseases, Carter tried to dissociate herself from fashionable sensibility, and struggled to gain acceptance for her pain as part of her body's "mechanism" by using a more old-fashioned, religious interpretative frame. This case study of Carter's headaches thus charts Carter's own understanding of her constitution, her body, and her pain within-and without-the framework of eighteenth-century fashionable diseases.

Lee waves: Benign and malignant

Science.gov (United States)

Wurtele, M. G.; Datta, A.; Sharman, R. D.

1993-01-01

The flow of an incompressible fluid over an obstacle will produce an oscillation in which buoyancy is the restoring force, called a gravity wave. For disturbances of this scale, the atmosphere may be treated as dynamically incompressible, even though there exists a mean static upward density gradient. Even in the linear approximation - i.e., for small disturbances - this model explains a great many of the flow phenomena observed in the lee of mountains. However, nonlinearities do arise importantly, in three ways: (1) through amplification due to the decrease of mean density with height; (2) through the large (scaled) size of the obstacle, such as a mountain range; and (3) from dynamically singular levels in the fluid field. These effects produce a complicated array of phenomena - large departure of the streamlines from their equilibrium levels, high winds, generation of small scales, turbulence, etc. - that present hazards to aircraft and to lee surface areas. The nonlinear disturbances also interact with the larger-scale flow in such a manner as to impact global weather forecasts and the climatological momentum balance. If there is no dynamic barrier, these waves can penetrate vertically into the middle atmosphere (30-100 km), where recent observations show them to be of a length scale that must involve the coriolis force in any modeling. At these altitudes, the amplitude of the waves is very large, and the phenomena associated with these wave dynamics are being studied with a view to their potential impact on high performance aircraft, including the projected National Aerospace Plane (NASP). The presentation shows the results of analysis and of state-of-the-art numerical simulations, validated where possible by observational data, and illustrated with photographs from nature.

The high-resolution global SST forecast set of the CSIR

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, WA

2011-09-01

Full Text Available -RESOLUTION GLOBAL SST FORECAST SET OF THE CSIR Willem A. Landman Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, P. O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa David G. DeWitt and Dong-Eun Lee International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Lamont...

Carter : Iisraelil on 150 või enam tuumapommi / Kaivo Kopli

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Kopli, Kaivo

2008-01-01

USA endine president Jimmy Carter väitis, et Iisraelil on 150 tuumapommi või rohkemgi. Eri hinnangutest Iisraeli tuumapommide arvu kohta, n.-ö. tunnustatud tuumariigid maailmas. Lisa: Tuumakatsetus 1979. aastal?

Treatment of wine lees on an industrial scale. [wine lees processing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1978-04-24

EtOH and tartaric acid are recovered from wine lees by compressing the lees into pellets, distillation with steam to remove alcohols followed by fractional distillation to recover EtOH, roasting and pulverization of the EtOH-free pellets to coagulate collids, and extraction of the suspension with water and mineral acid to recover tartaric acid. Mother liquors are recirculated through the tartaric acid recovery process and the residual material is dried to a protein product which is useful as fertilizer or as animal feed.

Characterization of Phenolic Compounds in Wine Lees.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhijing, Ye; Shavandi, Amin; Harrison, Roland; Bekhit, Alaa El-Din A

2018-03-25

The effect of vinification techniques on phenolic compounds and antioxidant activity of wine lees are poorly understood. The present study investigated the antioxidant activity of white and red wine lees generated at early fermentation and during aging. In this study, the total phenol content (TPC), total tannin content (TTC), mean degree of polymerization (mDP), and antioxidant activities of five white and eight red wine lees samples from different vinification backgrounds were determined. The results showed that vinification techniques had a significant ( p tannin content of the samples. White wine lees had high mDP content compared with red ones. Catechin (50-62%) and epicatechin contents were the predominant terminal units of polymeric proanthocyanidin extracted from examined samples. Epigallocatechin was the predominant extension unit of white wine lees, whereas epicatechin was the predominant compound in red wine marc. The ORAC (oxygen radical absorbance capacity) assay was strongly correlated with the DPPH (α, α-diphenyl-β-picrylhydrazyl) assay, and the results showed the strong antioxidant activities associated with red wine lees (PN > 35 mg Trolox/g FDM) (PN: Pinot noir lees; FDM: Freeze-dried Material). This study indicates that tannin is one of the major phenolic compounds available in wine lees that can be useful in human and animal health applications.

Characterization of Phenolic Compounds in Wine Lees

Science.gov (United States)

Zhijing, Ye; Shavandi, Amin; Harrison, Roland; Bekhit, Alaa El-Din A.

2018-01-01

The effect of vinification techniques on phenolic compounds and antioxidant activity of wine lees are poorly understood. The present study investigated the antioxidant activity of white and red wine lees generated at early fermentation and during aging. In this study, the total phenol content (TPC), total tannin content (TTC), mean degree of polymerization (mDP), and antioxidant activities of five white and eight red wine lees samples from different vinification backgrounds were determined. The results showed that vinification techniques had a significant (p wine lees had high mDP content compared with red ones. Catechin (50–62%) and epicatechin contents were the predominant terminal units of polymeric proanthocyanidin extracted from examined samples. Epigallocatechin was the predominant extension unit of white wine lees, whereas epicatechin was the predominant compound in red wine marc. The ORAC (oxygen radical absorbance capacity) assay was strongly correlated with the DPPH (α,α-diphenyl-β-picrylhydrazyl) assay, and the results showed the strong antioxidant activities associated with red wine lees (PN > 35 mg Trolox/g FDM) (PN: Pinot noir lees; FDM: Freeze-dried Material). This study indicates that tannin is one of the major phenolic compounds available in wine lees that can be useful in human and animal health applications. PMID:29587406

Handbook for Forecasters in the Mediterranean. Part 2. Regional Forecasting Aids for the Mediterranean Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

1980-12-01

important role in modifying the poniente. Strong northwesterly flow crossing the Sierra Nevada (see Figure 1-1) causes a lee trough to develop along...the coast of southern France. *Comprises British forecast sea areas Lions, Unicorn , Bougie; see Figure lb in the Introduction. II-I 0) (1) C- C.0 CDC L...Alps are most important features insofar as they play a significant weather role in terms of planetary waves, cyclogenesis and fronts. 1 .2 SEASONAL

Characterization of Phenolic Compounds in Wine Lees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye Zhijing

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The effect of vinification techniques on phenolic compounds and antioxidant activity of wine lees are poorly understood. The present study investigated the antioxidant activity of white and red wine lees generated at early fermentation and during aging. In this study, the total phenol content (TPC, total tannin content (TTC, mean degree of polymerization (mDP, and antioxidant activities of five white and eight red wine lees samples from different vinification backgrounds were determined. The results showed that vinification techniques had a significant (p < 0.05 impact on total phenol and tannin content of the samples. White wine lees had high mDP content compared with red ones. Catechin (50–62% and epicatechin contents were the predominant terminal units of polymeric proanthocyanidin extracted from examined samples. Epigallocatechin was the predominant extension unit of white wine lees, whereas epicatechin was the predominant compound in red wine marc. The ORAC (oxygen radical absorbance capacity assay was strongly correlated with the DPPH (α, α-diphenyl-β-picrylhydrazyl assay, and the results showed the strong antioxidant activities associated with red wine lees (PN > 35 mg Trolox/g FDM (PN: Pinot noir lees; FDM: Freeze-dried Material. This study indicates that tannin is one of the major phenolic compounds available in wine lees that can be useful in human and animal health applications.

Coherent modeling and forecasting of mortality patterns for subpopulations using multi-way analysis of compositions: an application to Canadian Provinces and Territories

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergeron Boucher, Marie-Pier; Simonacci, Violetta; Oeppen, James

2018-01-01

Mortality levels for subpopulations, such as countries in a region or Provinces within a country, generally change in a similar fashion over time, as a result of common historical experiences in terms of health, culture and economics. Forecasting mortality for such populations should consider...... to Compositional Data Analysis (CoDa) methodology. Compositional data are strictly positive values summing to a constant and represent part of a whole. Life table deaths are compositional by definition as they provide the age composition of deaths per year and sum to the life table radix. In bilinear models...... the use of life table deaths treated as compositions generally leads to less bias forecasts than other commonly used models by not assuming a constant rate of mortality improvement. As a consequence, an extension of this approach to multi-way data is here presented. Specifically, a CoDa adaptation...

A Comparison between General Population Mortality and Life Tables for Insurance in Mexico under Gender Proportion Inequality || Una comparación entre la mortalidad de la población general y las tablas de vida de los seguros en México ante porcentajes desiguales de género

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ornelas, Arelly

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We model the mortality behavior of the general population in Mexico using data from 1990 to 2009 and compare it to the mortality assumed in the tables used in Mexico for insured lives. We _t a Lee-Carter model, a Renshaw-Haberman model and an Age-Period-Cohort model. The data used are drawn from the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI and the National Population Council (CONAPO. We also fit a Brass-type relational model to compare gaps between general population mortality and the mortality estimates for the insured population used by the National Insurance and Finance Commission in Mexico. As the life tables for insured lives are unisex, i.e. they do not differentiate between men and women, we assume various sex ratios in the mortality tables for insured lives. We compare our results with those obtained for Switzerland and observe very similar outcomes. We emphasize the limitations of the mortality tables used by insurance companies in Mexico. We also discuss the bias incurred when using unisex mortality tables if the proportion of male and female policyholders in an insurance company is not balanced. || Interesados en conocer las diferencias entre la mortalidad general y la de un subgrupo de la población, como son los asegurados en una compañía de seguros, hemos ajustado un modelo relacional Brass-Type. Para ello, en primer lugar, hemos modelado el comportamiento de la mortalidad de la población general de México entre los años 1990 y 2009. Hemos ajustado un modelo Lee-Carter, un modelo Renshaw-Haberman y un modelo edad-período-cohorte. Los datos utilizados proceden del Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI y el Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO. Una vez estimadas las tasas de mortalidad se han comparado con la mortalidad asumida por las compañías aseguradoras mexicanas. Estas tasas de mortalidad han sido calculadas por la Comisión Nacional de Seguros y Finanzas de México. Como las

On the linear programming bound for linear Lee codes.

Science.gov (United States)

Astola, Helena; Tabus, Ioan

2016-01-01

Based on an invariance-type property of the Lee-compositions of a linear Lee code, additional equality constraints can be introduced to the linear programming problem of linear Lee codes. In this paper, we formulate this property in terms of an action of the multiplicative group of the field [Formula: see text] on the set of Lee-compositions. We show some useful properties of certain sums of Lee-numbers, which are the eigenvalues of the Lee association scheme, appearing in the linear programming problem of linear Lee codes. Using the additional equality constraints, we formulate the linear programming problem of linear Lee codes in a very compact form, leading to a fast execution, which allows to efficiently compute the bounds for large parameter values of the linear codes.

Lines of Deterritorialization: The Becoming-Minor of Carter's Drawing

Science.gov (United States)

Schulte, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

Invoking Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari's configuration of minor literature, the author of this case study theorizes the drawing practice of a young boy (Carter) as a process of becoming-minor. Critical to this theorization is the creation and activation of a semblance between Brent and Marjorie Wilson's (1977) treatment of the…

Tim Berners-Lee during the WSIS

CERN Multimedia

Maximilien Brice

2003-01-01

Tim Berners-Lee stands in front of the first web server at the Geneva Palexpo during the World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) in 2003. Tim Berners-Lee developed the first network and server system that lead to the World Wide Web.

76 FR 30947 - Stephen Lee Seldon: Debarment Order

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-27

...] Stephen Lee Seldon: Debarment Order AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY... Act (the FD&C Act) permanently debarring Stephen Lee Seldon, M.D. from providing services in any... authority delegated to the Director (Staff Manual Guide 1410.35), finds that Stephen Lee Seldon has been...

Interactions between yeast lees and wine polyphenols during simulation of wine aging. II. Analysis of desorbed polyphenol compounds from yeast lees.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazauric, Jean-Paul; Salmon, Jean-Michel

2006-05-31

In the first part of this work, the analysis of the polyphenolic compounds remaining in the wine after different contact times with yeast lees during simulation of red wine aging was undertaken. To achieve a more precise view of the wine polyphenols adsorbed on lees during red wine aging and to establish a clear balance between adsorbed and remnant polyphenol compounds, the specific analysis of the chemical composition of the adsorbed polyphenolic compounds (condensed tannins and anthocyanins) after their partial desorbtion from yeast lees by denaturation treatments was realized in the second part of the study. The total recovery of polyphenol compounds from yeast lees was not complete, since a rather important part of the initial wine colored polyphenols, especially those with a dominant blue color component, remained strongly adsorbed on yeast lees, as monitored by color tristimulus and reflectance spectra measurements. All anthocyanins were recovered at a rather high percentage (about 62%), and it was demonstrated that they were not adsorbed in relation with their sole polarity. Very few monomeric phenolic compounds were extracted from yeast lees. With the use of drastic denaturing treatments, the total recovery of condensed tannins reached 83%. Such tannins extracted from yeast lees exhibited very high polymeric size and a rather high percentage of galloylated residues by comparison with initial wine tannins, indicating that nonpolar tannins were preferentially desorbed from yeast lees by the extraction treatments.

Higher-derivative Lee-Wick unification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carone, Christopher D.

2009-01-01

We consider gauge coupling unification in Lee-Wick extensions of the Standard Model that include higher-derivative quadratic terms beyond the minimally required set. We determine how the beta functions are modified when some Standard Model particles have two Lee-Wick partners. We show that gauge coupling unification can be achieved in such models without requiring the introduction of additional fields in the higher-derivative theory and we comment on possible ultraviolet completions.

Assessing the Feasibility of Comprehensive Energy Efficiency Upgrades at Potawatomi Carter Casino Hotel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karman, Nathan A.

2014-03-31

The Forest County Potawatomi Community, a federally-recognized Indian Tribe with a strong commitment to the natural environment, sought and obtained funding to investigate energy efficient improvements to its Potawatomi Carter Casino & Hotel and the adjacent Potawatomi Carter C-Store and Smoke Shop. The resulting energy studies recommended energy conservation measures that would collectively reduce energy use by more than 30% at the facilities and would save approximately $200,000 per year in energy costs. Consistent with its commitment to the natural environment, and to advance its goal of energy independence using Carbon free or Carbon neutral renewable resources, the Community has already begun implementing certain measures and continues to seek funding sources necessary to implement the remaining measures.

Galactic punctuated equilibrium: how to undermine Carter's anthropic argument in astrobiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Cirković, Milan M; Vukotić, Branislav; Dragićević, Ivana

2009-06-01

A new strategy by which to defeat Carter's "anthropic" argument against extraterrestrial life and intelligence is presented. Our approach is based on relaxing hidden uniformitarian assumptions and considering instead a dynamical succession of evolutionary regimes governed by both global (Galaxy-wide) and local (planet- or planetary system-limited) regulation mechanisms. Notably, our increased understanding of the nature of supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and strong coupling between the Solar System and the Galaxy, and the theories of "punctuated equilibria" and "macroevolutionary regimes" are in full accordance with the regulation-mechanism picture. The application of this particular strategy highlights the limits of application of Carter's argument and indicates that, in the real universe, its applicability conditions are not satisfied. We conclude that drawing far-reaching conclusions about the scarcity of extraterrestrial intelligence and the prospects of our efforts to detect it on the basis of this argument is unwarranted.

Constraints on the Lee-Wick Higgs sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carone, Christopher D.; Primulando, Reinard

2009-01-01

Lee-Wick partners to the standard model Higgs doublet may appear at a mass scale that is significantly lower than that of the remaining Lee-Wick partner states. The relevant effective theory is a two-Higgs doublet model in which one doublet has wrong-sign kinetic and mass terms. We determine bounds on this effective theory, including those from neutral B-meson mixing, b→X s γ, and Z→bb. The results differ from those of conventional two-Higgs doublet models and lead to meaningful constraints on the Lee-Wick Higgs sector.

Early Mortality Experience in a Large Military Cohort and a Comparison of Mortality Data Sources

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-24

population-based cohort study. Ann Epidemiol 2007, 17(7):525-532. 9. Wentworth DN, Neaton JD, Rasmussen WL: An evaluation of the Social Security...Health 1992, 82(8):1145-1447. 13. Calle EE, Terrell DD: Utility of the National Death Index for ascertainment of mortality among Cancer Prevention Study...Hynes DM: A primer and comparative review of major US mortality databases. Ann Epidemiol 2002, 12(7):462-468. 18. Sesso HD, Paffenbarger RS, Lee

The Earl Lee Street Art Campaign

Science.gov (United States)

Bubba

2013-01-01

This article describes a catchy phrase with more to its meaning than first view. A slogan "All the girls love Earl Lee," appears in street art around the world. Earl Lee is a lovable, handsome man who owns the fictitious Earl Lube industries. Originally intended to bring a smile to people's faces at a time when there wasn't much to smile…

Tim Berners-Lee receives the Millennium Technology Prize

CERN Multimedia

2004-01-01

On 15 April, for his invention of the Web, Tim Berners-Lee was awarded the first ever Millennium Technology Prize by the Finnish Technology Award Foundation, which recognises technological innovations of lasting benefit to society. "Tim Berners-Lee's invention perfectly encapsulates the spirit of the Prize. The Web is encouraging new types of social networks, contributing to transparency and democracy, and opening up new avenues for information management and business development," underlined Pekka Tarjanne, chairman of the jury and former Secretary-General of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Tim Berners-Lee is congratulated by Jukka Valtasaari, Finland's Ambassador to the United States. Tim Berners-Lee created the first server, browser and editor, the HTML code, the URL address and the HTTP transmission protocol at CERN in 1990. CERN released the Web into the public domain in 1993. Tim Berners-Lee is currently head of the World Wide Web Consortium, managed by ERCIM (Europe...

Radiation bounce from the Lee-Wick construction?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karouby, Johanna; Brandenberger, Robert

2010-01-01

It was recently realized that matter modeled by the scalar field sector of the Lee-Wick standard model yields, in the context of a homogeneous and isotropic cosmological background, a bouncing cosmology. However, bouncing cosmologies induced by pressureless matter are in general unstable to the addition of relativistic matter (i.e. radiation). Here we study the possibility of obtaining a bouncing cosmology if we add not only radiation, but also its Lee-Wick partner, to the matter sector. We find that, in general, no bounce occurs. The only way to obtain a bounce is to choose initial conditions with very special phases of the radiation field and its Lee-Wick partner.

Web Inventor Berners-Lee starts a Blog

CERN Multimedia

Olson, Parmy

2005-01-01

Berners-Lee created what is known today as the World Wide Web. Now, just in time for the Web's 15th anniversary and after taking his proverbial stroll around the global dwelling of cyberspace, Berners-Lee is chatting with the rest of us about what he thinks with a blog

Complete synchronization of two Chen-Lee systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheu, L-J; Chen, J-H; Chen, H-K; Tam, L-M; Lao, S-K; Chen, W-C; Lin, K-T

2008-01-01

This study demonstrates that complete synchronization of two Chen-Lee chaotic systems can be easily achieved. The upper bound of the Chen-Lee chaotic system is estimated numerically. A controller is designed to synchronize two chaotic systems. Sufficient conditions for synchronization are obtained using Lyapunov's direct method. Two numerical examples are presented to verify the proposed synchronization approach

One-loop renormalization of Lee-Wick gauge theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grinstein, Benjamin; O'Connell, Donal

2008-01-01

We examine the renormalization of Lee-Wick gauge theory to one-loop order. We show that only knowledge of the wave function renormalization is necessary to determine the running couplings, anomalous dimensions, and vector boson masses. In particular, the logarithmic running of the Lee-Wick vector boson mass is exactly related to the running of the coupling. In the case of an asymptotically free theory, the vector boson mass runs to infinity in the ultraviolet. Thus, the UV fixed point of the pure gauge theory is an ordinary quantum field theory. We find that the coupling runs more quickly in Lee-Wick gauge theory than in ordinary gauge theory, so the Lee-Wick standard model does not naturally unify at any scale. Finally, we present results on the beta function of more general theories containing dimension six operators which differ from previous results in the literature.

Wrong vertex displacements due to Lee-Wick resonances at LHC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez, E.; Schat, C.; Rold, L. da; Szynkman, A.

2009-01-01

We show how a resonance from the recently proposed Lee-Wick Standard Model could lead to wrong vertex displacements at LHCb. We study which could be the possible 'longest lived' Lee-Wick particle that could be created at LHC, and we study its possible decays and detections. We conclude that there is a region in the parameter space which would give wrong vertex displacements as a unique signature of the Lee-Wick Standard Model at LHCb. Further numerical simulation shows that LHC era could explore these wrong vertex displacements through Lee-Wick leptons below 500 GeV. (author)

Retrospective: Ivy Lee and the German Dye Trust.

Science.gov (United States)

Hainsworth, Brad E.

1987-01-01

Examines the relationship between public relations trailblazer Ivy Lee and the German Dye Trust, which became an agent for the policies of Adolf Hitler. Discusses how Lee's efforts to use this relationship to persuade his contacts to influence the Nazi leadership failed because of his formal connection with this group. (JD)

Construcción de tablas de vida dinámicas para uno o dos sexos = Construction of unisex or sex-distinct dynamic life tables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ewa Dylewska

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Mientras que las tablas de vida tradicionales describen la mortalidad actual en un determinado periodo de tiempo, las tablas de vida dinámicas permiten una proyección de mortalidad futura. Además de la edad y el sexo, las tablas de vida dinámicas tienen también una tercera dimensión, que es el tiempo. Por lo tanto, permiten observar cambios en la mortalidad que resultan no solamente de cambios en la edad sino también de cambios que aparecen a lo largo del tiempo. Esto se refiere sobre todo a la tendencia de disminución de riesgo de mortalidad. Las tablas de vida dinámicas son, por lo tanto, muy útiles en la construcción de seguros de vida de larga duración y planes de pensiones. También pueden ser aplicadas en la construcción de tablas unisex (relacionado con el dictamen C-236/09 – Test -Achats. El objetivo del estudio es comprobar la diferencia en la esperanza de vida a la edad x en España calculada utilizando las tablas de vida estáticas (tradicionales y dinámicas, para uno o ambos sexos. Este fin se realiza aplicando el modelo de Lee-Carter para pronosticar la mortalidad futura.Traditional life tables describe a level of mortality at one and defined period of time whereas dynamic life tables allow for projection of future mortality. Apart from age and gender, dynamic life tables also have a third dimension, which is time. In that way, it is possible to observe changes of mortality over the years. This is especially reflected in a mortality reduction trend. Dynamic life tables are therefore very useful in pricing long-term life contracts and especially in pricing annuities. Moreover, dynamic life tables can also be used in constructing unisex life tables (in relation with decision C-236/09 – Test-Achats. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate differences in life expectancy at age x in Spain calculated by using static (traditional and dynamic life tables, both unisex and sex-distinct. Mortality projection is done

Construcción de tablas de vida dinámicas para uno o dos sexos = Construction of unisex or sex-distinct dynamic life tables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ewa Dylewska

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Mientras que las tablas de vida tradicionales describen la mortalidad actual en un determinado periodo de tiempo, las tablas de vida dinámicas permiten una proyección de mortalidad futura. Además de la edad y el sexo, las tablas de vida dinámicas tienen también una tercera dimensión, que es el tiempo. Por lo tanto, permiten observar cambios en la mortalidad que resultan no solamente de cambios en la edad sino también de cambios que aparecen a lo largo del tiempo. Esto se refiere sobre todo a la tendencia de disminución de riesgo de mortalidad. Las tablas de vida dinámicas son, por lo tanto, muy útiles en la construcción de seguros de vida de larga duración y planes de pensiones. También pueden ser aplicadas en la construcción de tablas unisex (relacionado con el dictamen C-236/09 – Test -Achats. El objetivo del estudio es comprobar la diferencia en la esperanza de vida a la edad x en España calculada utilizando las tablas de vida estáticas (tradicionales y dinámicas, para uno o ambos sexos. Este fin se realiza aplicando el modelo de Lee-Carter para pronosticar la mortalidad futura. Traditional life tables describe a level of mortality at one and defined period of time whereas dynamic life tables allow for projection of future mortality. Apart from age and gender, dynamic life tables also have a third dimension, which is time. In that way, it is possible to observe changes of mortality over the years. This is especially reflected in a mortality reduction trend. Dynamic life tables are therefore very useful in pricing long-term life contracts and especially in pricing annuities. Moreover, dynamic life tables can also be used in constructing unisex life tables (in relation with decision C-236/09 – Test-Achats. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate differences in life expectancy at age x in Spain calculated by using static (traditional and dynamic life tables, both unisex and sex-distinct. Mortality projection is done

Telomere Length and Mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kimura, Masayuki; Hjelmborg, Jacob V B; Gardner, Jeffrey P

2008-01-01

Leukocyte telomere length, representing the mean length of all telomeres in leukocytes, is ostensibly a bioindicator of human aging. The authors hypothesized that shorter telomeres might forecast imminent mortality in elderly people better than leukocyte telomere length. They performed mortality...

Stability, causality, and hyperbolicity in Carter's ''regular'' theory of relativistic heat-conducting fluids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olson, T.S.; Hiscock, W.A.

1990-01-01

Stability and causality are studied for linear perturbations about equilibrium in Carter's ''regular'' theory of relativistic heat-conducting fluids. The ''regular'' theory, when linearized around an equilibrium state having vanishing expansion and shear, is shown to be equivalent to the inviscid limit of the linearized Israel-Stewart theory of relativistic dissipative fluids for a particular choice of the second-order coefficients β 1 and γ 2 . A set of stability conditions is determined for linear perturbations of a general inviscid Israel-Stewart fluid using a monotonically decreasing energy functional. It is shown that, as in the viscous case, stability implies that the characteristic velocities are subluminal and that perturbations obey hyperbolic equations. The converse theorem is also true. We then apply this analysis to a nonrelativistic Boltzmann gas and to a strongly degenerate free Fermi gas in the ''regular'' theory. Carter's ''regular'' theory is shown to be incapable of correctly describing the nonrelativistic Boltzmann gas and the degenerate Fermi gas (at all temperatures)

Projecting UK mortality using Bayesian generalised additive models

OpenAIRE

Hilton, Jason; Dodd, Erengul; Forster, Jonathan; Smith, Peter W.F.

2018-01-01

Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to the forecasting of mortality that jointly estimates a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) for mortality for the majority of the age-range and a parametric model for older ages where the data are sparser. The GAM allows smooth components...

Robertson-Walker type solutions with Carter and Quintana-type elasticity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lukacs, B.

1976-03-01

The problem of elastic matter in gravitational field having six parameter symmetry is studied by help of the more general theory of Carter and Quintana. The results are compared to the author's earlier calculations using the less general Rayner's formalism. It is shown that previous results remain valid if the equation of state is chosed specially. The Hookean limit of the two theories differ from one another but there is no essential difference between the behaviours of the solutions. (Sz.N.Z.)

Baikov-Lee representations of cut Feynman integrals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harley, Mark; Moriello, Francesco; Schabinger, Robert M.

2017-01-01

We develop a general framework for the evaluation of d-dimensional cut Feynman integrals based on the Baikov-Lee representation of purely-virtual Feynman integrals. We implement the generalized Cutkosky cutting rule using Cauchy’s residue theorem and identify a set of constraints which determine the integration domain. The method applies equally well to Feynman integrals with a unitarity cut in a single kinematic channel and to maximally-cut Feynman integrals. Our cut Baikov-Lee representation reproduces the expected relation between cuts and discontinuities in a given kinematic channel and furthermore makes the dependence on the kinematic variables manifest from the beginning. By combining the Baikov-Lee representation of maximally-cut Feynman integrals and the properties of periods of algebraic curves, we are able to obtain complete solution sets for the homogeneous differential equations satisfied by Feynman integrals which go beyond multiple polylogarithms. We apply our formalism to the direct evaluation of a number of interesting cut Feynman integrals.

A Hollow Army Reappraised: President Carter, Defense Budgets, and the Politics of Military Readiness

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-01

enlistees. A Carter political appointee in the Office of the Secretary of Defense helped Thurman by introducing the general to first-rate advertising ...spoken words ( storytelling ), are historically situated and culturally determined. In this real life drama, webs of mean- ing—beliefs, desires, and

Thomas George Lee - Implantation and early development of North American rodents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carter, Anthony Michael

2011-01-01

A century ago Thomas G. Lee amassed an unparalleled collection of developmental series of North American rodents such as the thirteen-lined ground squirrel, the Plains pocket gopher and Merriam's kangaroo rat. He was the first to describe the initial attachment of the squirrel blastocyst to the a......A century ago Thomas G. Lee amassed an unparalleled collection of developmental series of North American rodents such as the thirteen-lined ground squirrel, the Plains pocket gopher and Merriam's kangaroo rat. He was the first to describe the initial attachment of the squirrel blastocyst...... to the antimesometrial side of the uterus. The full potential of Lee's material was not realized until after his death, when it came into the possession of Mossman. The latter relied heavily on Lee's collection when writing his seminal monograph on the comparative morphogenesis of fetal membranes and much of Lee...

THE BUSINESS OF THE CANAL: THE ECONOMICS AND POLITICS OF THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION’S PANAMA CANAL ZONE INITIATIVE, 1978

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mary C. Swilling

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The Carter-Torrijos Treaty of 1978, the initiative to relinquish controi of the Panama Canal Zone to the Republic of Panama, allowed Panama for the first time in its short history to become an autonomous nation and to take control of its destiny as a global trading crossroads. Conservatives rallied against President Carter and accused him of jeopardizing U. S. security and hegemony. Fears were that Panama did not have the economic or technical resources to maintain Canal operations, lacked the administrative knowledge and resources to manage the business of the Canal, lacked the military presence to insure security of the Canal, and did not have the political and social will to maintain the environmental integrity of the region. In short, disastrous results were predicted. Carter prevailed. December 31, 1999 saw the surrender of the Canal Zone, and all its facilities, to Panama. This paper discusses events that precipitated Carter’s decision, economic and political arguments presented during the 1977-78 debate, implementation of the treaty, and an evaluation of the ‘business of the Canal’ today.

Tim Berners-Lee and Kofi Annan during the WSIS

CERN Multimedia

Patrice Loïez

2003-01-01

During the 2003 World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) at Geneva Palexpo, Tim Berners-Lee W3C's director (World Wide Web consortium) was introduced to Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the United Nations. Tim Berners-Lee developed the first network and server system that lead to the World Wide Web.

Tim Berners-Lee and Kofi Annan during the WSIS

CERN Multimedia

Patrice Loïez

2003-01-01

During the 2003 World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) at Geneva Palexpo, Tim Berners-Lee, W3C's director (World Wide Web consortium) was introduced to Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the United Nations. Tim Berners-Lee developed the first network and server system that lead to the World Wide Web.

Lee de Forest King of Radio, Television, and Film

CERN Document Server

Adams, Mike

2012-01-01

Lee de Forest, Yale doctorate and Oscar winner, gave voice to the radio and the motion picture. Yet by the 1930s, after the radio and the Talkies were regular features of American life, Lee de Forest had seemingly lost everything. Why? Why didn’t he receive the recognition and acclaim he sought his entire life until years later in 1959, when he was awarded an Oscar? A lifelong innovator, Lee de Forest invented the three-element vacuum tube which he developed between 1906 and 1916 as a detector, amplifier, and oscillator of radio waves. As early as 1907, he was broadcasting music programming. In 1918, he began to develop a system for recording and playing back sound by using light patterns on motion picture film. In order to promote and demonstrate his process he made hundreds of short sound films, found theatres for their showing, and issued publicity to gain audiences for his invention. While he received many patents for this technology, he was ignored by the film industry. Lee de Forest, King of Radio, Te...

Virginia Lee Burton's "Little House" in Popular Consciousness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Goddard, Joseph

2011-01-01

This article considers the significance of Victoria Lee Burton’s authorship, specifically The Little House, for lifestyle preferences and the development of environmental consciousness in the postwar period. The article argues that Burton deliberately designed her work to evoke country-friendly s......This article considers the significance of Victoria Lee Burton’s authorship, specifically The Little House, for lifestyle preferences and the development of environmental consciousness in the postwar period. The article argues that Burton deliberately designed her work to evoke country...

Libros y documentos relativos a Hernán Cortés en el fondo de raros de la John Carter Brown Library (Providence, Rhode Island, USA)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sánchez Jiménez, A.

2008-01-01

This article catalogs and comments the books relating to Hernán Cortés and his conquest of Mexico and New Spain that are kept in the John Carter Brown Library rare book collections. In addition, this article provides information about the John Carter Brown Fellowship program, which may be of

Delphine Letort, The Spike Lee Brand: A Study of Documentary Filmmaking

OpenAIRE

Lipson, David

2017-01-01

Spike Lee is known the world over for films like She’s Gotta Have It (1986), School Daze (1988), Do the Right Thing (1989), etc. This association with fiction films is so strong that one could mistakenly think that Delphine Letort’s book The Spike Lee Brand: A Study of Documentary Filmmaking would explore the connection between these fiction films and the documentary genre. However, the first pages of the book clearly indicate that it will focus on Spike Lee the documentary filmmaker. Making ...

[The medical theory of Lee Je-ma and its character].

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kyung-Lock

2005-12-01

Lee Je-ma 1837-1900) was a prominent scholar as well as an Korean physician. classified every people into four distinctive types: greater yang [tai yang] person, lesser yin [shao yin] person, greater yin [tai yin] person, lesser yin [shao yin] person. This theory would dictate proper treatment for each type in accordance with individual differences of physical and temperament features. Using these four types he created The Medical Science of Four Types. This article is intended to look into the connection between Lee Je-Ma's 'The Medical Science of Four Types' and 'The Modern' with organizing his ideas about the human body and the human being. Through The Modern, the theory of human being underwent a complete change. Human being in The Premodern, which was determined by sex, age and social status has been changed to the individual human being, which is featured by equality. Lee Je-Ma's medical theory of The Medical Science of Four Types would be analyzed as follow. His concept of human body is oriented toward observable objectivity. But on the other hand, it still remains transcendent status of medical science, which is subordinated by philosophy. According to Lee Je-Ma's theory of human being, human is an equal individual in a modern way of thinking, not as a part of hierarchical group. But on the other hand, it still remains incomplete from getting rid of morality aspect that includes virtue and vice in the concept of human body. The common factors in Lee Je-Ma's ideas about the human body and the human being is 'Dualism of mind and body that means all kinds of status and results depends on each individual. As is stated above, Lee Je-Ma's medical theory has many aspects of The Modern and it proves that Korean traditional medicine could be modernized by itself.

Carter faces new dilemmas over non-proliferation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickson, D.

1979-01-01

Questions underlying the current domestic debate as to whether the US should revise its attitude towards the relationship between the spread of nuclear energy and the proliferation of nuclear weapons are considered. Problems arising from the provisional conclusions of the International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation, set up at President Carter's suggestion in 1977, are evaluated. The thorny question of how to deal with the Non-Proliferation Treaty when it comes up for review in 1980 is discussed. Finally there is the issue, for which it is concluded nobody pretends to have all the answers, of whether a sufficient consensus - involving both developed and developing countries as partners in decision-making - can be forged to develop and apply an effective control regime, or whether increasing competition between both producers and consumers of nuclear power will be such as to limit the possibilities for multilateral action, shifting the focus back to bilateral actions. (UK)

Assessing cataract surgical competency

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lee, Andrew G.; Greenlee, Emily; Oetting, Thomas A.; Beaver, Hilary A.; Johnson, A. Tim; Boldt, H. Culver; Abramoff, Michael; Olson, Richard; Carter, Keith

2007-01-01

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education has mandated that all residency training programs teach and assess 6 general competencies.1 A.G. Lee and K.D. Carter, Managing the new mandate in resident education: A blueprint for translating a national mandate into local compliance,

Laparoendoscopic Single-Site Pyelolithotomy With Use of a Carter-Thomason Needle Grasper

OpenAIRE

Seo, Ill Young; Rim, Joung Sik

2013-01-01

Purpose To study the feasibility and safety of the procedure, we present our early experience with laparoendoscopic single-site (LESS) pyelolithotomy performed by use of a Carter-Thomason needle grasper. Materials and Methods Four patients underwent LESS pyelolithotomy for the removal of renal pelvic stones. The patients' mean age was 57.8 years, and their mean body mass index was 23.01. We used a homemade single-port device made with a surgical glove that was inserted into a 2.5-cm periumbil...

Optimization of biohydrogen production from beer lees using anaerobic mixed bacteria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cui, Maojin; Yuan, Zhuliang; Zhi, Xiaohua; Shen, Jianquan [Beijing National Laboratory for Molecular Sciences (BNLMS), Laboratory of New Materials, Institute of Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zhongguancun North First Street 2, Beijing 100190 (China)

2009-10-15

Beer lees are the main by-product of the brewing industry. Biohydrogen production from beer lees using anaerobic mixed bacteria was investigated in this study, and the effects of acidic pretreatment, initial pH value and ferrous iron concentration on hydrogen production were studied at 35 C in batch experiments. The hydrogen yield was significantly enhanced by optimizing environmental factors such as hydrochloric acid (HCl) pretreatment of substrate, initial pH value and ferrous iron concentration. The optimal environmental factors of substrate pretreated with 2% HCl, pH = 7.0 and 113.67 mg/l Fe{sup 2+} were observed. A maximum cumulative hydrogen yield of 53.03 ml/g-dry beer lees was achieved, which was approximately 17-fold greater than that in raw beer lees. In addition, the degradation efficiency of the total reducing sugar, and the contents of hemicellulose, cellulose, lignin and metabolites are presented, which showed a strong dependence on the environmental factors. (author)

Awards: New Year Knighthood for Tim Berners-Lee

CERN Multimedia

2004-01-01

Tim Berners-Lee has been awarded his country's highest honour - a knighthood - in the UK's New Year Honours list for his work while at CERN on the World Wide Web. In the same honours list, Roger Cashmore has been made a Companion of the Order of St Michael and St George (CMG) "for his services to international co-operation in particle physics". Cashmore was CERN's Director for Collider Programmes from 1999-2003, and is now Principal of Brasenose College, Oxford. Tim Berners-Lee stands in front of the first web server at Palexpo during the World Summit on the Information Society.

Lee-Nauenberg theorem and Coulomb scattering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, H; Frenkel, J [Sao Paulo Univ. (Brazil). Instituto de Fisica

1975-08-01

Lee-Nauenberg analysis is extended to the case of Coulomb scattering, where the diagonal elements of the Hamiltonian interaction are singular functions. It is shown, using a simple argument, that the leading infrared singularities in the cross-section are mutually canceled out.

Grain-size sorting in grainflows at the lee side of deltas

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleinhans, M.G.

2005-01-01

The sorting of sediment mixtures at the lee slope of deltas (at the angle of repose) is studied with experiments in a narrow, deep flume with subaqueous Gilbert-type deltas using varied flow conditions and different sediment mixtures. Sediment deposition and sorting on the lee slope of the delta

The medical theory of Lee Je-ma and its character

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LEE Kyung-Lock

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Lee Je-ma(李濟馬, 1837-1900 was a prominent scholar as well as an Korean physician He classified every people into four distinctive types: greater yang[tai yang] person, lesser yin[shao yin] person greater yin[tai yin] person, lesser yin[shao yin] person. This theory would dictate proper treatment for each type in accordance with individual differences of physical and temperament features Using these four types he created The Medical Science of Four Types(四象體質論.This article is intended to look into the connection between Lee Je-Ma's 'The Medical Science of Four Types' and 'The Modern' with organizing his ideas about the human body and the human being. Through The Modern, the theory of human being(人間觀 underwent a complete change. Human being in The Premodern, which was determined by sex, age and social status has been changed to the individual human being, which is featured by equality. Lee Je-Ma's medical theory of The Medical Science of Four Types would be analyzed as follow. His concept of human body(人體論 is oriented toward observable objectivity. But on the other hand, it still remains transcendent status of medical science, which is subordinated by philosophy According to Lee Je-Ma's theory of human being human is an equal individual in a modern way of thinking not as a part of hierarchical group. But on the other hand, it still remains incomplete from getting rid of morality aspect that includes virtue and vice in the concept of human body.The common factors in Lee Je-Ma's ideas about the human body and the human being is 'Dualism of mind and body(心身二元論' that means all kinds of status and results depends on each individual. As is stated above, Lee Je-Ma's medical theory has many aspects of The Modern and it proves that Korean traditional medicine could be modernized by itself.

The German East-West Mortality Difference: Two Crossovers Driven by Smoking.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogt, Tobias; van Raalte, Alyson; Grigoriev, Pavel; Myrskylä, Mikko

2017-06-01

Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, mortality was considerably higher in the former East Germany than in West Germany. The gap narrowed rapidly after German reunification. The convergence was particularly strong for women, to the point that Eastern women aged 50-69 now have lower mortality despite lower incomes and worse overall living conditions. Prior research has shown that lower smoking rates among East German female cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s were a major contributor to this crossover. However, after 1990, smoking behavior changed dramatically, with higher smoking intensity observed among women in the eastern part of Germany. We forecast the impact of this changing smoking behavior on East-West mortality differences and find that the higher smoking rates among younger East German cohorts will reverse their contemporary mortality advantage. Mortality forecasting methods that do not account for smoking would, perhaps misleadingly, forecast a growing mortality advantage for East German women. Experience from other countries shows that smoking can be effectively reduced by strict anti-smoking policies. Instead, East Germany is becoming an example warning of the consequences of weakening anti-smoking policies and changing behavioral norms.

Tim Berners-Lee at the RSIS conference from 8-9 December 2003.

CERN Multimedia

Patrice Loiez

2003-01-01

Tim Berners-Lee participated in the Role of Science in the Information Society conference held at CERN from 8-9 December 2003. Tim Berners-Lee developed the first network and server system that lead to the World Wide Web.

Subordinations In “To Kill A Mockingbird” By Harper Lee

OpenAIRE

Siregar, Rut Sri Novitawaty

2011-01-01

Salah satu yang dipelajari mahasiswa adalah tulis menulis. Secara ilmiah tulis menulis adalah penyampaian informasi dalam bentuk tulisan serta bagaimana informasi itu disampaikan. Judul kertas karya ini adalah Kalimat Subordinat yang ditemukan dalam novel To Kill a Mockingbird karya Harper Lee: SUBORDINATION IN TO KILL A MOCKINGBIRD BY HARPER LEE. Penulis mengangkat hal ini karena penulis tertarik dengan bentuk–bentuk serta fungsi-fungsi kalimat subordinat yang terdapat dalam tulisan-tulisan ...

Instability of the Lee-Wick bounce

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karouby, Johanna; Brandenberger, Robert; Qiu, Taotao

2011-01-01

It was recently realized [Y. F. Cai, T. t. Qiu, R. Brandenberger, and X. m. Zhang, Phys. Rev. D 80, 023511 (2009).] that a model constructed from a Lee-Wick type scalar field theory yields, at the level of homogeneous and isotropic background cosmology, a bouncing cosmology. However, bouncing cosmologies induced by pressureless matter are in general unstable to the addition of relativistic matter (i.e. radiation). Here we study the possibility of obtaining a bouncing cosmology if we add radiation coupled to the Lee-Wick scalar field. This coupling in principle would allow the energy to flow from radiation to matter, thus providing a drain for the radiation energy. However, we find that it takes an extremely unlikely fine-tuning of the initial phases of the field configurations for a sufficient amount of radiative energy to flow into matter. For general initial conditions, the evolution leads to a singularity rather than a smooth bounce.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

Science.gov (United States)

Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

2015-04-01

The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater

Lee waves, benign and malignant

Science.gov (United States)

Wurtele, M. G.; Datta, A.

1992-01-01

The flow of an incompressible, stratified fluid over an obstacle will produce an oscillation in which buoyancy is the restoring force, called a gravity wave. For disturbances of this scale, the atmosphere may be treated as incompressible; and even the linear approximation will explain many of the phenomena observed in the lee of mountains. However, nonlinearities arise in two ways: (1) through the large (scaled) size of the mountain, and (2) from dynamically singular levels in the fluid field. These produce a complicated array of phenomena that present hazards to aircraft and to lee surface areas. If there is no dynamic barrier, these waves can penetrate vertically into the middle atmosphere (30-100 km attitude), where recent observations show them to be of a length scale that must involve the Coriolis force in any modeling. At these altitudes, the amplitude of the waves is very large, and the waves are studied with a view to their potential impact on the projected National Aerospace Plane. This paper presents the results of analyses and state-of-the-art numerical simulations, validated where possible by observational data.

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

2017-09-18

To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016-2020. An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ 2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1-4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016-2020, based on the predictive model. Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All

The Statecraft of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Toh, K

1996-01-01

.... The ejection of Singapore from the Federation led Lee to focus on two strategic goals: the survival of Singapore as an independent state while simultaneously pursuing nation-building under the threats of communism and internal ethnic conflicts...

Triniti daripada Perspektif Taoisme: Analisis Pemikiran Jung Young Lee

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ZURAIZA HUSIN

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Jung Young Lee is a Korean-born theologian who employs creatively the doctrine of the Trinity from an Asian worldview. This article aims to analyze Lee’s approaches of the Trinity with the Yin-Yang symbolism. The main reference is based on the book written by him entitled ‘The Trinity in Asian Perspective (1996’. Lee has turned his attention to the topic of Trinity through the lens of the culture and thought patterns of his own milieu. One of the leading point in presenting Yin-Yang principle as Trinitarian thinking, Lee examines the interpretation of the term “in” in the Bible, "Believe me that I am in the Father and the Father is in me" (John 14:11. The statement leads to the point that Yin and Yang cannot exist without each other because relationality is given priority than individuality. The idea is based on the terminology of ‘both/and’. So, ‘and’ indicates a Trinitarian statement, there is interdependence and unification. With reference to Trinity, the Father and the Son are One because of ‘and’. In addition, the same concept implements to the Holy Spirit. Lee views ‘and’ is not only a linking principle in both-and thinking but also the principle that is ‘between’ two. When ‘two’ exists, the third also exist between them. Based on the idea of ‘middle’, represents the connecting element between two, which contributes for the existence of the Third. Accordingly, the Spirit is the third element in the Trinity relationship.

Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth : a multipopulation approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boonen, T.J.; Li, H.

2017-01-01

Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In

Comparative genomics and stx phage characterization of LEE-negative Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susan Renee Steyert

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Infection by Escherichia coli and Shigella species are among the leading causes of death due to diarrheal disease in the world. Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC that do not encode the locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE-negative STEC often possess Shiga toxin gene variants and have been isolated from humans and a variety of animal sources. In this study, we compare the genomes of nine LEE-negative STEC harboring various stx alleles with four complete reference LEE-positive STEC isolates. Compared to a representative collection of prototype E. coli and Shigella isolates representing each of the pathotypes, the whole genome phylogeny demonstrated that these isolates are diverse. Whole genome comparative analysis of the 13 genomes revealed that in addition to the absence of the LEE pathogenicity island, phage encoded genes including non-LEE encoded effectors, were absent from all nine LEE-negative STEC genomes. Several plasmid-encoded virulence factors reportedly identified in LEE-negative STEC isolates were identified in only a subset of the nine LEE-negative isolates further confirming the diversity of this group. In combination with whole genome analysis, we characterized the lambdoid phages harboring the various stx alleles and determined their genomic insertion sites. Although the integrase gene sequence corresponded with genomic location, it was not correlated with stx variant, further highlighting the mosaic nature of these phages. The transcription of these phages in different genomic backgrounds was examined. Expression of the Shiga toxin genes, stx1 and/or stx2, as well as the Q genes, were examined with quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR assays. A wide range of basal and induced toxin induction was observed. Overall, this is a first significant foray into the genome space of this unexplored group of emerging and divergent pathogens.

Practical Improvements to the Lee-More Conductivity Near the Metal-Insulator Transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desjarlais, Michael P.

2000-01-01

The wide-range conductivity model of Lee and More is modified to allow better agreement with recent experimental data and theories for dense plasmas in the metal-insulator transition regime. Modifications primarily include a new ionization equilibrium model, consisting of a smooth blend between single ionization Saha (with a pressure ionization correction) and the generic Thomas-Fermi ionization equilibrium, a more accurate treatment of electron-neutral collisions using a polarization potential, and an empirical modification to the minimum allowed collision time. These simple modifications to the Lee-More algorithm permit a more accurate modeling of the physics near the metal-insulator transition, while preserving the generic Lee-More results elsewhere

Practical improvements to the Lee-More conductivity near the metal-insulator transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desjarlais, M.P.

2001-01-01

The wide-range conductivity model of Lee and More is modified to allow better agreement with recent experimental data and theories for dense plasmas in the metal-insulator transition regime. Modifications primarily include a new ionization equilibrium model, consisting of a smooth blend between single ionization Saha (with a pressure ionization correction) and the generic Thomas-Fermi ionization equilibrium, a more accurate treatment of electron-neutral collisions using a polarization potential, and an empirical modification to the minimum allowed collision time. These simple modifications to the Lee-More algorithm permit a more accurate modeling of the physics near the metal-insulator transition, while preserving the generic Lee-More results elsewhere. (orig.)

Tim Berners-Lee, World Wide Web inventor

CERN Multimedia

1998-01-01

The "Internet, Web, What's next?" conference on 26 June 1998 at CERN: Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web and Director of the W3C, explains how the Web came to be and gave his views on the future.

Alternative implementation of the chaotic Chen-Lee system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheu, L.-J.; Tam, L.-M.; Chen, H.-K.; Lao, S.-K.

2009-01-01

The chaotic Chen-Lee system was developed with a formalism based on the Euler equations for the motion of a rigid body. It was proved that this system is the governing set of equations for gyro motion with feedback control. Recently, studies were conducted to explore the dynamic behavior of this system, including fractional order behavior, the generation of hyperchaos and perturbation analysis, control and anti-control of chaos, synchronization, etc. In this study, we further explore (1) the stability of the equilibrium points and (2) the implementation of an electronic circuit using the Chen-Lee system. It is shown that not only is this system related to gyro motion but can also be applied to electronic circuits for encryption purposes.

A novel visualisation tool for climate services: a case study of temperature extremes and human mortality in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, R.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J.; Herrmann, F. R.; Jupp, T. E.; Stephenson, D.; Rodó, X.

2013-12-01

Users of climate information often require probabilistic information on which to base their decisions. However, communicating information contained within a probabilistic forecast presents a challenge. In this paper we demonstrate a novel visualisation technique to display ternary probabilistic forecasts on a map in order to inform decision making. In this method, ternary probabilistic forecasts, which assign probabilities to a set of three outcomes (e.g. low, medium, and high risk), are considered as a point in a triangle of barycentric coordinates. This allows a unique colour to be assigned to each forecast from a continuum of colours defined on the triangle. Colour saturation increases with information gain relative to the reference forecast (i.e. the long term average). This provides additional information to decision makers compared with conventional methods used in seasonal climate forecasting, where one colour is used to represent one forecast category on a forecast map (e.g. red = ';dry'). We use the tool to present climate-related mortality projections across Europe. Temperature and humidity are related to human mortality via location-specific transfer functions, calculated using historical data. Daily mortality data at the NUTS2 level for 16 countries in Europe were obtain from 1998-2005. Transfer functions were calculated for 54 aggregations in Europe, defined using criteria related to population and climatological similarities. Aggregations are restricted to fall within political boundaries to avoid problems related to varying adaptation policies between countries. A statistical model is fit to cold and warm tails to estimate future mortality using forecast temperatures, in a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Using predefined categories of temperature-related mortality risk, we present maps of probabilistic projections for human mortality at seasonal to decadal time scales. We demonstrate the information gained from using this technique compared to more

Courtland Lee: A Global Advocate for Counseling

Science.gov (United States)

Gladding, Samuel T.

2011-01-01

Courtland Lee is exemplary in his accomplishments nationally and internationally. His academic achievements are notable in multicultural counseling and social justice. His leadership in counseling has been outstanding with his having served as president of the American Counseling Association, the Association for Multicultural Counseling and…

Dimensi Carter dalam Peningkatan Kualitas Layanan BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ach. Zuhri

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Facing the public is increasingly critical as now, in addition to products, services provided also affect the sustainability of the company. Service as a form of first promotion to a prospective customer, if the superior service quality, the customer will continue to trade, and vice versa. To find out how much the service quality of a bank, it can use an analysis on a dimension that one of them is the Carter dimension (compliance, assurance, Reliability, tangibility, Emphaty, responsiveness as a modified form of Servqual to fit used to measure the service quality Syariah banks. One of the Syari’a banks in Madura is Bank Pembiayaan Rakyat Syariah (BPRS Bhakti Sumekar, that there is only one bank in Madura that there is a part of service quality, the task is to assess and evaluate all activities from the front liner (Security Guards, Tellers, Customer Service. This Research Methods use a qualitative approach, informants are the employees and customers of Bank Pembiayaan Rakyat Syariah (BPRS Bhakti Sumekar. while techniques of data collection is by interview, observation, and documentation.  The results show that the first; all aspects of the Carter dimensions has been run and a good note, but the Tangibles dimension, there are some facilities are still inadequate, namely Parking Area and seating customers, parking area that less large makes the customers vehicle of the heat and rain resulted in anxiety of the customer will be safety, because it can damage their vehicles. Also customers seating is inadequate so that there are customers stand when waiting queues. The second; The strategy used BPRS Bhakti Sumekar namely innovation, that is not good to be good, and from the good to the better. By doing that, BPRS Bhakti Sumekar will always watch and evaluate each the service provided to customers. One of innovation proofs from BPRS Bhakti Sumekar is by to provide a suggestion box to accommodate the customer complaints, and free drinks such as tea

PERJANJIAN CARTER KAPAL NIAGA DALAM PERSPEKTIF HUKUM PERJANJIAN DI INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendra Djaja

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Law no 17 year 2008 about voyage applies a sabotage principle. This principle is significantly proven that itincreases the use of ship with Indonesian flag on it in all activities in voyage sector in Indonesian law territory,so it reduces �the dependence� to the ships with foreign flags. This principle does not influence so much to thedynamics of the commerce transportation company need to rent the ships either foreign ships or Indonesianones through the mechanism of the chartering of vessels or charter party, except if the policy of �sea toll� isreally implemented. Generally there are three kinds of charter party namely voyage charter, time charter andbareboat charter. The contract content of this vessel charter fully obeys the freedom of parties. However,practically in commerce voyage, there are various kinds of charter contracts forming standard charter party(approved documents that arrange like essential clauses or additional clause that must be understood well bythe parties. This understanding is important because it has an impact for not only the parties tied to charterparty but also their responsibility on the loss of transportation users.�Undang Undang Nomor 17 Tahun 2008 tentang Pelayaran menerapkan asas cabotage.Asas ini secara signifikanterbukti meningkatkan penggunaan kapal berbendera Indonesia dalam seluruh aktivitas kegiatan usaha sektorpelayaran di wilayah hukum Indonesia, sehingga mengurangi �ketergantungan� terhadap kapal berbenderaasing.Asas tersebut tidak terlalu berpengaruh terhadap dinamika kebutuhan perusahaan angkutan niagauntuk menyewa kapal, baik asing maupun sesama kapal niaga Indonesia melalui mekanisme the chartering ofvessels atau charter party, kecuali apabila kebijakan �Tol Laut� pemerintah sekarang ini betul-betuldiimplementasikan.Secara umum terdapat tiga jenis charter party yaitu voyage charter, time charter danbareboat charter. Isi perjanjian carter kapal ini sepenuhnya tunduk pada kebebasan

Nooruslikud juubilarid: fotokelder Lee 20 ja fotomuuseum 30 / Mall Parmas, Betty Ester-Väljaots

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Parmas, Mall

2013-01-01

Peeter Toominga algatusel 1992. aastal asutatud Lee fotokeldrist. Loetletud fotomuuseumis oma töid eksponeerinud fotograafid. Ülevaatenäitus "Lee fotokelder 20" 17. jaanuarist 20. märtsini, koostaja Betty Ester-Väljaots

Synchronization and anti-synchronization coexist in Chen-Lee chaotic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, J.-H.; Chen, H.-K.; Lin, Y.-K.

2009-01-01

This study demonstrates that synchronization and anti-synchronization can coexist in Chen-Lee chaotic systems by direct linear coupling. Based on Lyapunov's direct method, a linear controller was designed to assure that two different types of synchronization can simultaneously be achieved. Further, the hybrid projective synchronization of Chen-Lee chaotic systems was studied using a nonlinear control scheme. The nonlinear controller was designed according to the Lyapunov stability theory to guarantee the hybrid projective synchronization, including synchronization, anti-synchronization, and projective synchronization. Finally, numerical examples are presented in order to illustrate the proposed synchronization approach.

In-season retail sales forecasting using survival models

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Retail sales forecasting, survival analysis, time series analysis, Holt's smoothing .... where fx(t) is the probability density function of the future lifetime, Tx, of a .... Adjustments were made to the shape of the smoothed mortality rates in light of new.

Fertility of Czech Females Could Be Lower than Expected: Trends in Future Development of Age-Specific Fertility Rates up to the Year 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ondřej Šimpach

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Fertility is an essential aspect of reproduction or population replacement of each country. The challenge for demographers is to model fertility and also to estimate its potential future level for the purposes of population projections. In the case of the Czech Republic we have the population projections provided by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO with overlooking of the total fertility rate in low, medium and high variant. These estimates despite being based on expert judgments, seem to be too positive compared to the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates. The aim of this paper is to assess the situation of fertility in the Czech Republic, to analyse the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates using one-dimensional Box-Jenkins models and multidimensional stochastic Lee-Carter approach. Together with found trend in time series and principal components estimated by Lee-Carter’s model a forecasts of age-specific fertility rates up to the year 2050 is constructed. Th ese rates are lower than those provided by CZSO in its three variants of the Czech Republic’s population projection, and therefore we discuss the causes at the end of the paper. We would like to point out that the potential future development of Czech females fertility could be lower than which are currently expected.

Economist Innovation Award for Tim Berners-Lee

CERN Multimedia

2003-01-01

In September, Tim Berners-Lee, who invented the World Wide Web at CERN and is now Director of the W3C World Wide Web Consortium, received the 2nd Economist Annual Innovation Award in Computing. With the award The Economist, a British weekly newspaper, recognises individuals responsible for breakthroughs in Bioscience, Computing, Energy and the Environment, and Telecommunications that have a profound impact on industry. A fifth award is given in a special "No Boundaries" category, observing innovation that transcends industries. Candidates for the awards are proposed by The Economist readers and writers, and by a group of judges. Tim Berners-Lee received the Computing award for his global hypertext project, to be known as the World Wide Web, which "forever altered the way information is shared" and is a huge contribution to the efficiency of the scientific community. Based on a programme for storing information using random associations called "Enquire", it...

"Walter Gropius" by Dean Carter. Exhibition of College of Architecture and Urban Studies Timeline and Portrait Busts.

OpenAIRE

Carter, Dean

2014-01-01

DEAN CARTER. Walter Gropius. Cast bronze. The Art Collection / Virginia Tech Foundation Exhibition of portrait busts and the timeline of the history College of Architecture and Urban Studies, on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the College. Curated by Truman Capone and Deb Sim. Francis T. Eck Exhibition Corridor, Moss Arts Center, Virginia Tech. Image 13

New forecasting methodology indicates more disease and earlier mortality ahead for today's younger Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Reither, Eric N; Olshansky, S Jay; Yang, Yang

2011-08-01

Traditional methods of projecting population health statistics, such as estimating future death rates, can give inaccurate results and lead to inferior or even poor policy decisions. A new "three-dimensional" method of forecasting vital health statistics is more accurate because it takes into account the delayed effects of the health risks being accumulated by today's younger generations. Applying this forecasting technique to the US obesity epidemic suggests that future death rates and health care expenditures could be far worse than currently anticipated. We suggest that public policy makers adopt this more robust forecasting tool and redouble efforts to develop and implement effective obesity-related prevention programs and interventions.

[Lee Jungsook, a Korean independence activist and a nurse during the Japanese colonial period].

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sook Young

2015-04-01

This article examines the life of Lee Jungsook, a Korean nurse, as a independence activist during the Japanese colonial period. Lee Jungsook(1896-1950) was born in Bukchung in Hamnam province. She studied at Chungshin girl's high school and worked at Severance hospital. The characteristics and culture of her educational background and work place were very important factors which influenced greatly the life of Lee Jungsook. She learned independent spirit and nationalism from Chungshin girls' high school and worked as nurse at the Severance hospital which were full of intense aspiration for Korea's independence. Many of doctors, professors and medical students were participated in the 3.1 Independence Movement. Lee Jungsook was a founding member of Hyulsungdan who tried to help the independence activists in prison and their families and worked as a main member of Korean Women's Association for Korean Independece and Kyungsung branch of the Korean Red Cross. She was sent to jail by the Japanese government for her independence activism. After being released after serving two years confinement, she worked for the Union for Women's Liberation as a founding member. Lee Joungsook was a great independence activist who had a nursing care spirit as a nurse.

Test procedure for the Master-Lee and the modified Champion four inch hydraulic cutters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crystal, J.B.

1995-01-01

The Master-Lee and the modified Champion 4 Inch hydraulic cutters are being retested to gather and document information related to the following: determine if the Master-Lee cutters will cut the trunnions of an Aluminum fuel canister and a Stainless Steel fuel canister; determine if the Master-Lee cutters will cut 1 1/2 inch diameter fire hose; determine if the modified Champion 4 inch blade will cut sections of piping; and determine the effectiveness of the centering device for the Champion 4 Inch cutters. Determining the limitations of the hydraulic cutter will aid in the process of debris removal in the K-Basin. Based on a previous test, the cutters were returned to the manufacturer for modifications. The modifications to the Champion 4 Inch Cutter and further testing of the Master-Lee Cutter are the subjects of these feature tests

Parametric study of the fractional-order Chen-Lee system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tam, L.M.; Tou, W.M.S.

2008-01-01

The dynamics of fractional-order systems have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years. In this paper, the effects of parameter changes on the dynamics of the fractional-order Chen-Lee system were studied numerically. The parameter ranges used were relatively broad. The order used for the system was fixed at 2.7 (q 1 = q 2 = q 3 = 0.9). The system displays rich dynamic behaviors, such as a fixed point, periodic motion (including period-3 motion), chaotic motion, and transient chaos. The chaotic motion identified was validated by the confirmation of a positive Lyapunov exponent. Period-doubling routes to chaos in the fractional-order Chen-Lee system were also found

Lee Acculturation Dream Scale for Korean-American college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sang Bok

2005-04-01

This study examined acculturation as represented in dream narratives of 165 Korean immigrant college students living in the USA. A total of 165 dreams were collected and evaluated using the Lee Acculturation Dream Scale, for which locations of dream contents were coded. 39% of the dreams took place in South Korea, while 38% were in the USA. Also, 16% of the dreams included both locations, whereas 7% had no specific dream location. The dreams contained overlapping dream messages, images, scenes, and interactions in both South Korea and the USA. A two-sample t test on the mean scores of the Lee Acculturation Dream Scale indicated no significant difference between men and women.

Parametric study of the fractional-order Chen-Lee system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tam, L.M. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Av. Padre Tomas Pereira S.J., Taipa, Macau (China)], E-mail: fstlmt@umac.mo; Tou, W.M.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Av. Padre Tomas Pereira S.J., Taipa, Macau (China)

2008-08-15

The dynamics of fractional-order systems have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years. In this paper, the effects of parameter changes on the dynamics of the fractional-order Chen-Lee system were studied numerically. The parameter ranges used were relatively broad. The order used for the system was fixed at 2.7 (q{sub 1} = q{sub 2} = q{sub 3} = 0.9). The system displays rich dynamic behaviors, such as a fixed point, periodic motion (including period-3 motion), chaotic motion, and transient chaos. The chaotic motion identified was validated by the confirmation of a positive Lyapunov exponent. Period-doubling routes to chaos in the fractional-order Chen-Lee system were also found.

Pear distillates from pear juice concentrate: effect of lees in the aromatic composition.

Science.gov (United States)

García-Llobodanin, L; Achaerandio, I; Ferrando, M; Güell, C; López, F

2007-05-02

Pear juice obtained from pear concentrate was fermented at room temperature using Saccharomyces cerevisiae (BDX, ENOFERM, France) as the fermentation microorganism. During the fermentation process, total sugars were measured. High performance liquid chromatography analyses were used to monitor the fermentation process and to characterize the pear wine. The pear wine obtained was distilled with its lees using three different equipments: a glass alembic (a glass pot still coupled to a glass column), a copper alembic, and a glass alembic with the addition of 5 g/L of copper shavings to the pot still. The same distillations were repeated with the wine without its lees (separated by decanting). Several distillation fractions were collected, up to a total of 500 mL of distillate. Gas chromatography was used to identify and quantify the volatile compounds in each fraction, and the methanol and ethanol contents. Based on these results, the heart fraction was defined. ANOVA tests were performed on the heart fractions to determine quantitative differences between some volatile compounds depending on the equipment used and the presence or absence of the wine lees. From this series of ANOVA tests, it can be concluded that the concentrations of the compounds that are considered to have a negative effect on the quality of the distillates (methanol, ethyl acetate, furfural) decrease or do not change when they are distilled in the presence of lees and in the copper alembic. In addition, the concentrations of the positive compounds (ethyl decanoate and ethyl-2-trans-4-cis-decadienoate) increase in the presence of lees for all of the equipment tested. So, it can be assumed that the distillation of pear wine with its lees in copper alembic leads to a better quality product.

Brown trout in the Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River—Evaluation of causal hypotheses and potential interventions

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Bair, Lucas S.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Valdez, Richard A.; Ellsworth, Craig; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Rogers, R. Scott; Trammell, Melissa A.; Young, Kirk L.

2018-04-17

model, and without any changes to management, we predict there is a 36-percent chance the brown trout population at Lees Ferry will not show sustained growth, and will remain around a mean size of 5,800 adults, near its current size; in contrast, we predict there is a 64-percent chance that the population has a positive intrinsic growth rate and will increase 3–10 fold over the next 20 years. A humpback chub population model linked to the brown trout model suggests an increase of brown trout of this magnitude could lead to declines in the minimum adult humpback chub population over the same time period. Forecasts of rainbow trout abundance, however, suggest that increased abundance of brown trout in the Lees Ferry reach does not pose a threat to the rainbow trout fishery there. There are interventions that may be effective in moderating the growth of the brown trout population in the Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River. Across causal hypotheses, we predict that removal strategies (for example, a concerted electrofishing effort or an incentivized take program targeted at large brown trout) could reduce brown trout abundance by approximately 50 percent relative to status quo management. Reductions in the frequency or a change in the seasonal timing of high-flow releases from Glen Canyon Dam could be even more effective, but only under the causal hypotheses that involve effects of such releases on immigration or reproduction. Brown trout management flows— dam releases designed to strand young fish at a vulnerable stage—may be able to reduce brown trout abundance to some degree, but are not forecast to be the most effective strategy under any causal hypothesis. We predict that the alternative management interventions would have effects on other resource goals as well, and the pattern of these effects differs across causal hypotheses. The removal strategies would incur direct costs (on the order of $7 million over 20 years) and the mechanical removal strategy is

Nuclear waste management and the impact of Carter Administration policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, R.F.

1979-01-01

The impact of Carter Administration's policies on the nuclear waste management program are evaluated in this article. The waste management program faces numerous inconsistencies resulting from: a lack of a clearly defined schedule and division of responsibility; the requirement to meet conflicting procedural requirements; and the lack of clear statements from the President and Congress supporting the major programs. Some of the ramifications of these points are discussed with reference to the schedule for the 3 key program elements: National Waste Terminal Storage (NWTS) Facility scheduled for commercial operation in 1985 to handle commercial high-level wastes; the Spent Unreprocessed Fuel (SURF) Facility scheduled for operation in 1985 to handle spent fuel from commercial power plants; the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) scheduled for operation in 1983 or 1984 for the disposal of TRU defense wastes. Possible avenues for improvement are suggested

Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality projections with multiple populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonio, K.; Bardoutsos, A.; Ouburg, W.

2015-01-01

Life insurers, pension funds, health care providers and social security institutions face increasing expenses due to continuing improvements of mortality rates. The actuarial and demographic literature has introduced a myriad of (deterministic and stochastic) models to forecast mortality rates of

Berners-Lee wins inaugural Millennium Technology prize

CERN Document Server

2004-01-01

"World Wide Web inventor Tim Berners-Lee today was named recipient of the first-ever Millennium Technology Prize. The honor, which is accompanied by one million euros, is bestowed by the Finnish Technology Award Foundation as an international acknowledgement of outstanding technological innovation aimed at promoting quality of life and sustainable economic and societal development" (1 page)

Dan Gilmor Column [Berners-Lee and the WWW

CERN Multimedia

Gillmore, D

2002-01-01

In the keynote speech at the 11th Annual World Wide Web Conference, Tim Berner's Lee said that in the early days of the web, people were worrying about the same thing as today - one company dominating the market and controlling standards (2 pages).

The Statecraft of Lee Kuan Yew, Visionary and Opportunist

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Thomas, David

1996-01-01

...." "Not so," replied the passenger, Lee Kuan Yew, "Singapore intends to continue to ride along as part of the federation created with Malaysia, Sarawak, and Sabah -- we have no plans for getting off...

Wave Extremes in the Northeast Atlantic from Ensemble Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Carrasco, Ana; Saetra, Øyvind

2013-10-01

A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived +240-h forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) from 1999 to 2009. We make three assumptions: First, each forecast is representative of a six-hour interval and collectively the data set is then comparable to a time period of 226 years. Second, the model climate matches the observed distribution, which we confirm by comparing with buoy data. Third, the ensemble members are sufficiently uncorrelated to be considered independent realizations of the model climate. We find anomaly correlations of 0.20, but peak events (>P97) are entirely uncorrelated. By comparing return values from individual members with return values of subsamples of the data set we also find that the estimates follow the same distribution and appear unaffected by correlations in the ensemble. The annual mean and variance over the 11-year archived period exhibit no significant departures from stationarity compared with a recent reforecast, i.e., there is no spurious trend due to model upgrades. EPS yields significantly higher return values than ERA-40 and ERA-Interim and is in good agreement with the high-resolution hindcast NORA10, except in the lee of unresolved islands where EPS overestimates and in enclosed seas where it is biased low. Confidence intervals are half the width of those found for ERA-Interim due to the magnitude of the data set.

General Robert E. Lee -- Brightest Star in the South

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dalton, Kent B

2006-01-01

.... Lee's distinctive application of operational art and leadership as the commander of the Army of Northern Virginia, we can discern many lessons which are still pertinent to our commanders at the operational level today...

Observation of Mountain Lee Waves with MODIS NIR Column Water Vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Lyapustin, A.; Alexander, M. J.; Ott, L.; Molod, A.; Holben, B.; Susskind, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-01-01

Mountain lee waves have been previously observed in data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) "water vapor" 6.7 micrometers channel which has a typical peak sensitivity at 550 hPa in the free troposphere. This paper reports the first observation of mountain waves generated by the Appalachian Mountains in the MODIS total column water vapor (CWV) product derived from near-infrared (NIR) (0.94 micrometers) measurements, which indicate perturbations very close to the surface. The CWV waves are usually observed during spring and late fall or some summer days with low to moderate CWV (below is approx. 2 cm). The observed lee waves display wavelengths from3-4 to 15kmwith an amplitude of variation often comparable to is approx. 50-70% of the total CWV. Since the bulk of atmospheric water vapor is confined to the boundary layer, this indicates that the impact of thesewaves extends deep into the boundary layer, and these may be the lowest level signatures of mountain lee waves presently detected by remote sensing over the land.

Potential of lees from wine, beer and cider manufacturing as a source of economic nutrients: An overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Bibbins, B; Torrado-Agrasar, A; Salgado, J M; Oliveira, R Pinheiro de Souza; Domínguez, J M

2015-06-01

Lees are the wastes generated during the fermentation and aging processes of different industrial activities concerning alcoholic drinks such as wine, cider and beer. They must be conveniently treated to avoid uncontrolled dumping which causes environmental problems due to their high content of phenols, pesticides, heavy metals, and considerable concentrations of nitrogen, phosphate and potassium as well as high organic content. The companies involved must seek alternative environmental and economic physicochemical and biological treatments for their revalorization consisting in the recovery or transformation of the components of the lees into high value-added compounds. After describing the composition of lees and market of wine, beer and cider industries in Spain, this work aims to review the recent applications of wine, beer and cider lees reported in literature, with special attention to the use of lees as an endless sustainable source of nutrients and the production of yeast extract by autolysis or cell disruption. Lees and/or yeast extract can be used as nutritional supplements with potential exploitation in the biotechnological industry for the production of natural compounds such as xylitol, organic acids, and biosurfactants, among others. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

2013-01-01

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

Quantization of the Lee static model by the Bogolyubov transformation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bornyakov, V.G.

1984-01-01

The Lee static strong-coupling model is studied. The model permits to find an exact solution for the state vector of the system and for the scattering matrix in the first permanent order of expansion in the inverse value of the coupling constant. The Bogolyubov method has been applied to quantize the Lee model with a hamiltonian, provided a high classical constituent of a boson field exists. Ground state of the system and scattering matrix from the obtained bound state are found. The way to avoid additional zero modes arising at Bogolyubov transformation for creation and annihilation operators is shown

Co-ordinate single-cell expression of LEE4- and LEE5-encoded proteins of Escherichia coli O157:H7.

Science.gov (United States)

Roe, Andrew J; Naylor, Stuart W; Spears, Kevin J; Yull, Helen M; Dransfield, Tracy A; Oxford, Matthew; McKendrick, Iain J; Porter, Megan; Woodward, Martin J; Smith, David G E; Gally, David L

2004-10-01

Escherichia coli O157:H7 is a zoonotic pathogen that can express a type III secretion system (TTSS) considered important for colonization and persistence in ruminants. E. coli O157:H7 strains have been shown to vary markedly in levels of protein secreted using the TTSS and this study has confirmed that a high secretion phenotype is more prevalent among isolates associated with human disease than isolates shed by healthy cattle. The variation in secretion levels is a consequence of heterogeneous expression, being dependent on the proportion of bacteria in a population that are actively engaged in protein secretion. This was demonstrated by indirect immunofluorescence and eGFP fusions that examined the expression of locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE)-encoded factors in individual bacteria. In liquid media, the expression of EspA, tir::egfp, intimin, but not map::egfp were co-ordinated in a subpopulation of bacteria. In contrast to E. coli O157:H7, expression of tir::egfp in EPEC E2348/69 was equivalent in all bacteria although the same fusion exhibited variable expression when transformed into an E. coli O157:H7 background. An E. coli O157:H7 strain deleted for the LEE demonstrated weak but variable expression of tir::egfp indicating that the elements controlling the heterogeneous expression lie outside the LEE. The research also demonstrated the rapid induction of tir::egfp and map::egfp on contact with bovine epithelial cells. This control in E. coli O157:H7 may be required to limit exposure of key surface antigens, EspA, Tir and intimin during colonization of cattle but allow their rapid production on contact with bovine gastrointestinal epithelium at the terminal rectum.

The Garrett Lee Smith Memorial Suicide Prevention Program

Science.gov (United States)

Goldston, David B.; Walrath, Christine M.; McKeon, Richard; Puddy, Richard W.; Lubell, Keri M.; Potter, Lloyd B.; Rodi, Michael S.

2010-01-01

In response to calls for greater efforts to reduce youth suicide, the Garrett Lee Smith (GLS) Memorial Act has provided funding for 68 state, territory, and tribal community grants, and 74 college campus grants for suicide prevention efforts. Suicide prevention activities supported by GLS grantees have included education, training programs…

INCA Modelling of the Lee System: strategies for the reduction of nitrogen loads

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. J. Flynn

2002-01-01

Full Text Available The Integrated Nitrogen Catchment model (INCA was applied successfully to simulate nitrogen concentrations in the River Lee, a northern tributary of the River Thames for 1995-1999. Leaching from urban and agricultural areas was found to control nitrogen dynamics in reaches unaffected by effluent discharges and abstractions; the occurrence of minimal flows resulted in an upward trend in nitrate concentration. Sewage treatment works (STW discharging into the River Lee raised nitrate concentrations substantially, a problem which was compounded by abstractions in the Lower Lee. The average concentration of nitrate (NO3 for the simulation period 1995-96 was 7.87 mg N l-1. Ammonium (NH4 concentrations were simulated less successfully. However, concentrations of ammonium rarely rose to levels which would be of environmental concern. Scenarios were run through INCA to assess strategies for the reduction of nitrate concentrations in the catchment. The conversion of arable land to ungrazed vegetation or to woodland would reduce nitrate concentrations substantially, whilst inclusion of riparian buffer strips would be unsuccessful in reducing nitrate loading. A 50% reduction in nitrate loading from Luton STW would result in a fall of up to 5 mg N l-1 in the reach directly affected (concentrations fell from maxima of 13 to 8 mg N l-1 , nearly a 40 % reduction, whilst a 20% reduction in abstractions would reduce maximum peaks in concentration in the lower Lee by up to 4 mg l-1 (from 17 to 13 mg N l-1, nearly a 25 % reduction,. Keywords: modelling, water quality, nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, INCA, River Lee, River Thames, land-use.

Tim Berners-Lee: inventor de la World Wide Web

OpenAIRE

Universidad de Granada. Biblioteca

2015-01-01

El presente Cat??logo contiene la exposici??n organizada por la Biblioteca de la ETSIIT de la Universidad de Granada durante los meses de noviembre-diciembre de 2015 y titulada: "Tim Berners-Lee: inventor de la World Wide Web"

Social networks and inference about unknown events: A case of the match between Google's AlphaGo and Sedol Lee.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonghoon Bae

Full Text Available This study examines whether the way that a person makes inferences about unknown events is associated with his or her social relations, more precisely, those characterized by ego network density that reflects the structure of a person's immediate social relation. From the analysis of individual predictions over the Go match between AlphaGo and Sedol Lee in March 2016 in Seoul, Korea, this study shows that the low-density group scored higher than the high-density group in the accuracy of the prediction over a future state of a social event, i.e., the outcome of the first game. We corroborated this finding with three replication tests that asked the participants to predict the following: film awards, President Park's impeachment in Korea, and the counterfactual assessment of the US presidential election. Taken together, this study suggests that network density is negatively associated with vision advantage, i.e., the ability to discover and forecast an unknown aspect of a social event.

Relation between the Lee-Wick and Nambu-Jona-Lasinio models of chiral symmetry breaking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klevansky, S.P.; Lemmer, R.H.

1990-01-01

The connection between the sigma model of Lee and Wick and the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model is discussed. It is shown that the sigma field potential of the linear Lee-Wick model is identical in form with the variation of the vacuum energy of the NJL system with the baryonic scalar density n s . The sigma field is proportional to n s . Furthermore, the coupling constant and mass of this σ field are fully determined by the NJL model version of the Goldberger-Treiman relation. It is shown further that the restoration of chiral symmetry with increasing baryonic density always occurs via a second order transition in the NJL model, while it is necessarily of first order in the associated linear Lee-Wick model. (orig.)

Persistence of the longnose darter (P. nasuta) in Lee Creek, Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Gatlin, Michael R.; Long, James M.

2011-01-01

The longnose darter Percina nasuta (Bailey) is one of Oklahoma’s rarest fish species (1) and is listed by the state as endangered. Throughout the rest of its range, which includes Missouri, Arkansas and the far eastern portion of Oklahoma, the longnose darter is classified as “rare” or “threatened” (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 1). This species inhabits both slow- and fast-water habitats with cobble and gravel substrates in medium to large streams (7, 8, 1). Oklahoma populations of longnose darter are known to occur only in the Poteau River and Lee Creek drainages in Le Flore and Sequoyah counties, respectively (9, 10). Cross and Moore (9) collected longnose darters from the Poteau River in 1947. The species was not collected in a subsequent survey of the Poteau River in 1974 (11), possibly because of the effects from the Wister Dam, which was completed in 1949. Darters are especially susceptible to flow alterations from dams (2, 12). This, together with the 1992 completion of Lee Creek Reservoir in Arkansas, has raised concern for the Lee Creek population of longnose darters (13).

Smoothing two-dimensional Malaysian mortality data using P-splines indexed by age and year

Science.gov (United States)

Kamaruddin, Halim Shukri; Ismail, Noriszura

2014-06-01

Nonparametric regression implements data to derive the best coefficient of a model from a large class of flexible functions. Eilers and Marx (1996) introduced P-splines as a method of smoothing in generalized linear models, GLMs, in which the ordinary B-splines with a difference roughness penalty on coefficients is being used in a single dimensional mortality data. Modeling and forecasting mortality rate is a problem of fundamental importance in insurance company calculation in which accuracy of models and forecasts are the main concern of the industry. The original idea of P-splines is extended to two dimensional mortality data. The data indexed by age of death and year of death, in which the large set of data will be supplied by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The extension of this idea constructs the best fitted surface and provides sensible prediction of the underlying mortality rate in Malaysia mortality case.

W3C head Berners-Lee to be knighted

CERN Multimedia

Gross, G

2004-01-01

"Tim Berners-Lee, credited with inventing the World Wide Web and now director of the World Wide Web Consortium, will be named a knight commander, Order of the British Empire, by Queen Elizabeth II, the W3C announced Wednesday" (1 page)

T.D Lee and Lisa Randall visit ATLAS

CERN Multimedia

Pauline Gagnon

Professor Tsung-Dao Lee, who received the Nobel Prize for Physics in 1957 for postulating that parity is not conserved in weak interactions, visited the ATLAS detector this month. He is seen here in the company of Peter Jenni, spokesperson for ATLAS. T.D. Lee is still very active at over 80, pursuing his theory work to this day. Professor Lisa Randall from Harvard University, the well-known theorist behind the Randall-Sundrum theory for extra dimensions, was also part of the group visiting the ATLAS detector. She is seen here with Fabiola Gianotti, deputy spokesperson for ATLAS. Lisa Randall's two initial papers have been quoted both more than 2500 times, making her the most cited theoretical physicist in the world in the last five years as of last autumn - a total of about 10,000 citations! One wonders here if Peter is pointing to a CP-violating graviton spotted in the ATLAS cavern... From left to right: Fabiola Gianotti, Gustaaf Brooijmans, convener of the ATLAS Exotics physics gro...

Yang-Lee zeros for a Potts model of helix-coil transition with nontrivial topology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ananikian, N.; Ananikyan, L.; Artuso, R.; Sargsyan, K.

2007-07-01

The Yang-Lee partition function zeros of the Q-state Potts model on a zigzag ladder are studied by a transfer-matrix approach. This Q-state model has a non-trivial topology induced by three-site interactions on a zigzag ladder and is proposed as a description of helix-coil transition in homo-polymers. The Yang-Lee zeros are associated to complex values of the solvent-related coupling constant K (magnetic field) and they are exactly derived for arbitrary values of the system parameters: Q, J (coupling constant of hydrogen binding) and temperature. It is shown that there is only a quasi-phase transition for all temperatures. The densities of the Yang-Lee zeros are singular at the edge singularity points and the critical exponent σ = -1/2. (author)

What Lee Raymond actually said in Beijing [15th WPC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raymond, Lee.

1997-01-01

When Lee Raymond, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Exxon Corporation gave this keynote address at the recent World Petroleum Congress in Beijing, he drew attention to the way economic growth alleviates poverty and to the close linkage between economic growth and energy use. He also drew attention to the weakness of the scientific evidence for climate change being caused by fossil fuel burning and his doubts about the wisdom of setting targets for the reduction of CO 2 emissions. At a press conference after the presentation Lee Raymond assented to the suggestion that the European oil companies have been hijacked by the environmentalists. Petroleum Review has reproduced the full text of the speech so that readers can judge for themselves the merits of the arguments and their likely impact on the Kyoto conference. (UK)

Why brush up your Shakespeare and your theory?: an Angela Carter companion to myths

OpenAIRE

Tarso do Amaral de Souza Cruz

2011-01-01

Essa dissertação visa estudar a formação do que veio a ser conhecido como o mito Shakespeariano e sua relação com a produção literária contemporânea, exemplificada pelo romance Wise Children, da romancista inglesa Angela Carter. Tal objetivo pretende ser alcançado por meio uma revisão teórica de elementos relacionados à concepção de mito desenvolvida pelo filósofo francês Roland Barthes, tais quais a concepção tradicional de mito, o Estruturalismo, o Pós-estruturalismo, a crítica ideológica m...

Social networks and inference about unknown events: A case of the match between Google’s AlphaGo and Sedol Lee

Science.gov (United States)

Bae, Jonghoon; Cha, Young-Jae; Lee, Hyungsuk; Lee, Boyun; Baek, Sojung; Choi, Semin

2017-01-01

This study examines whether the way that a person makes inferences about unknown events is associated with his or her social relations, more precisely, those characterized by ego network density that reflects the structure of a person’s immediate social relation. From the analysis of individual predictions over the Go match between AlphaGo and Sedol Lee in March 2016 in Seoul, Korea, this study shows that the low-density group scored higher than the high-density group in the accuracy of the prediction over a future state of a social event, i.e., the outcome of the first game. We corroborated this finding with three replication tests that asked the participants to predict the following: film awards, President Park’s impeachment in Korea, and the counterfactual assessment of the US presidential election. Taken together, this study suggests that network density is negatively associated with vision advantage, i.e., the ability to discover and forecast an unknown aspect of a social event. PMID:28222114

Polyphenols from Wine Lees as a Novel Functional Bioactive Compound in the Protection Against Oxidative Stress and Hyperlipidaemia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irena Landeka Jurčević

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The study examines the potential of wine industry by-product, the lees, as a rich mixture of natural polyphenols, and its physiological potential to reduce postprandial metabolic and oxidative stress caused by a cholesterol-rich diet in in vivo model. Chemical analysis of wine lees showed that their total solid content was 94.2 %. Wine lees contained total phenols, total nonflavonoids and total flavonoids expressed in mg of gallic acid equivalents per 100 g of dry mass: 2316.6±37.9, 1332.5±51.1 and 984.1±28.2, respectively. The content of total anthocyanins expressed in mg of cyanidin-3-glucoside equivalents per 100 g of dry mass was 383.1±21.6. Antioxidant capacity of wine lees determined by the DPPH and FRAP methods and expressed in mM of Trolox equivalents per 100 g was 259.8±1.8 and 45.7±1.05, respectively. The experiment lasted 60 days using C57BL/6 mice divided in four groups: group 1 was fed normal diet and used as control, group 2 was fed normal diet with added wine lees, group 3 was fed high-cholesterol diet (HCD, i.e. normal diet with the addition of sunflower oil, and group 4 was fed HCD with wine lees. HCD increased serum total cholesterol (TC by 2.3-fold, triacylglycerol (TAG by 1.5-fold, low-density lipoprotein (LDL by 3.5-fold and liver malondialdehyde (MDA by 50 %, and reduced liver superoxide dismutase (SOD by 50 %, catalase (CAT by 30 % and glutathione (GSH by 17.5 % compared to control. Conversely, treatment with HCD and wine lees reduced TC and LDL up to 1.4 times more than with HCD only, with depletion of lipid peroxidation (MDA and restoration of SOD and CAT activities in liver, approximating values of the control. HDL levels were unaffected in any group. Serum transaminase activity showed no hepatotoxic properties in the treatment with lees alone. In the proposed model, wine lees as a rich polyphenol source could be a basis for functional food products without alcohol.

Dynamical fragmentation of flux tubes in the Friedberg-Lee model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loh, S.; Greiner, C.; Mosel, U.; Thoma, M.H.

1997-01-01

We present two novel dynamical features of flux tubes in the Friedberg-Lee model. First the fusion of two (anti-)parallel flux tubes, where we extract a string-string interaction potential which has a qualitative similarity to the nucleon-nucleon potential in the Friedberg-Lee model obtained by Koepf et al. Furthermore we show the dynamical breakup of flux tubes via qq-particle production and the disintegration into mesons. We find, as a shortcoming of the present realization of the model, that the full dynamical transport approach presented in a previous publication fails to provide the disintegration mechanism in the semiclassical limit. Therefore, in addition, we present here a molecular dynamical approach for the motion of the quarks and show, as a first application, the space-time development of the quarks and their mean-fields for Lund-type string fragmentation processes. (orig.)

Intermittency and dynamical Lee-Yang zeros of open quantum systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Hickey, James M; Flindt, Christian; Garrahan, Juan P

2014-12-01

We use high-order cumulants to investigate the Lee-Yang zeros of generating functions of dynamical observables in open quantum systems. At long times the generating functions take on a large-deviation form with singularities of the associated cumulant generating functions-or dynamical free energies-signifying phase transitions in the ensemble of dynamical trajectories. We consider a driven three-level system as well as the dissipative Ising model. Both systems exhibit dynamical intermittency in the statistics of quantum jumps. From the short-time behavior of the dynamical Lee-Yang zeros, we identify critical values of the counting field which we attribute to the observed intermittency and dynamical phase coexistence. Furthermore, for the dissipative Ising model we construct a trajectory phase diagram and estimate the value of the transverse field where the stationary state changes from being ferromagnetic (inactive) to paramagnetic (active).

Tim Berners-Lee, World Wide Web inventor

CERN Multimedia

1994-01-01

Former physicist, Tim Berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web as an essential tool for high energy physics at CERN from 1989 to 1994. Together with a small team he conceived HTML, http, URLs, and put up the first server and the first 'what you see is what you get' browser and html editor. Tim is now Director of the Web Consortium W3C, the International Web standards body based at INRIA, MIT and Keio University.

[Comparison of the prognostic value of mortality Child Pugh Score and forecasting models of chronic liver disease in patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Peru].

Science.gov (United States)

Valenzuela Granados, Vanessa; Salazar-Quiñones, Maria; Cheng-Zárate, Lester; Malpica-Castillo, Alexander; Huerta Mercado, Jorge; Ticse, Ray

2015-01-01

The assessment of prognosis is an essential part of the evaluation of all patients with liver cirrhosis. Currently continues to develop new models to optimize forecast accuracy mortality score is calculated by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). Compare the prognostic accuracy of hospital mortality and short-term mortality CTP, MELD and other models in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. Prospective descriptive study, comparison type of diagnostic test that included 84 patients. The score CTP, MELD and other models were calculated on the first day of hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of mortality was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of score CTP, MELD and other models. Hospital mortality and mortality in the short-term monitoring was 20 (23.8%) and 44 (52.4%), respectively. The AUROCs CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD and RefitMELD Na to predict hospital mortality was 0.4488, 0.5645, 0.5426, 0.5578, 0.5719, 0.5598 and 0.5754; and to predict short-term mortality was 0.5386, 0.5747, 0.5770, 0.5781, 0.5631, 0.5881 and 0.5693, respectively. By comparing each AUROCs of the CTP score, MELD and other models proved to be no better than the other (p>0.05). This study has not shown the predictive utility of the CTP score, MELD and other models (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit Refit MELD and MELD Na) to evaluate hospital mortality or short-term mortality in a sample of patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Cayetano Heredia.

Fundamental solution of bond pricing in the Ho-Lee stochastic interest rate model under the invariant criteria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burhaneddin İzgi

2017-03-01

under the invariant criteria. We obtain transformations between Ho-Lee model with the corresponding linear (1 + 1 partial differential equation and the first Lie canonical form which is identical to the classical heat equation. These transformations help us to generate the fundamental solution for the Ho-Lee model with respect to the fundamental solution of the classical heat equation sense. Moreover, as a financial application of the Ho-Lee model, we choose the drift term from power functions and perform simulations via Milstein method. Furthermore, we obtain important results for the parameter calibration of the corresponding drift term by using the simulation results.

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

2013-01-01

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

Duke Power's William Lee says INPO's purpose is solving industry problems, not educating the public

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1984-01-01

Former Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) head, William Lee thinks that nuclear critics could misuse institute reports on investigations of nuclear plant construction and operation. If so, that would outweigh any public relations benefits of using the reports to inform and educate the public. Lee thinks the best way to gain public confidence is for the industry to perform well. The four-year-old institute was originally formed to improve operations, but recent problems with unfinished plants led to a system of construction audits. By offering guidance to companies building nuclear plants, INPO is meeting competition from utilities such as Duke Power, which is now marketing its expertise in designing and building plants. Lee emphasizes the importance of asking the right questions that will lead to quality control

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Pierdzioch

2012-11-01

Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

Big George to Carter Mountain 115-kV transmission line project, Park and Hot Springs Counties, Wyoming. Environmental Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-02-01

The Western Area Power Administration (Western) is proposing to rebuild, operate, and maintain a 115-kilovolt (kV) transmission line between the Big George and Carter Mountain Substations in northwest Wyoming (Park and Hot Springs Counties). This environmental assessment (EA) was prepared in compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the regulations of the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) and the Department of Energy (DOE). The existing Big George to Carter Mountain 69-kV transmission line was constructed in 1941 by the US Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, with 1/0 copper conductor on wood-pole H-frame structures without an overhead ground wire. The line should be replaced because of the deteriorated condition of the wood-pole H-frame structures. Because the line lacks an overhead ground wire, it is subject to numerous outages caused by lightning. The line will be 54 years old in 1995, which is the target date for line replacement. The normal service life of a wood-pole line is 45 years. Under the No Action Alternative, no new transmission lines would be built in the project area. The existing 69-kV transmission line would continue to operate with routine maintenance, with no provisions made for replacement.

INCA Modelling of the Lee System: strategies for the reduction of nitrogen loads

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, N. J.; Paddison, T.; Whitehead, P. G.

The Integrated Nitrogen Catchment model (INCA) was applied successfully to simulate nitrogen concentrations in the River Lee, a northern tributary of the River Thames for 1995-1999. Leaching from urban and agricultural areas was found to control nitrogen dynamics in reaches unaffected by effluent discharges and abstractions; the occurrence of minimal flows resulted in an upward trend in nitrate concentration. Sewage treatment works (STW) discharging into the River Lee raised nitrate concentrations substantially, a problem which was compounded by abstractions in the Lower Lee. The average concentration of nitrate (NO3) for the simulation period 1995-96 was 7.87 mg N l-1. Ammonium (NH4) concentrations were simulated less successfully. However, concentrations of ammonium rarely rose to levels which would be of environmental concern. Scenarios were run through INCA to assess strategies for the reduction of nitrate concentrations in the catchment. The conversion of arable land to ungrazed vegetation or to woodland would reduce nitrate concentrations substantially, whilst inclusion of riparian buffer strips would be unsuccessful in reducing nitrate loading. A 50% reduction in nitrate loading from Luton STW would result in a fall of up to 5 mg N l-1 in the reach directly affected (concentrations fell from maxima of 13 to 8 mg N l-1 , nearly a 40 % reduction), whilst a 20% reduction in abstractions would reduce maximum peaks in concentration in the lower Lee by up to 4 mg l-1 (from 17 to 13 mg N l-1, nearly a 25 % reduction),.

A critique of the Lees-Marshment market-oriented party model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ormrod, Robert P.

2006-01-01

This article presents conceptual and empirical criticisms of the Lees-Marshment market-oriented party model. Conceptual criticisms are the short-term approach, the narrow focus on voters, the nature of the relationship to competitors, a tendency towards centralisation and the lack of a distinction...

Interactions between yeast lees and wine polyphenols during simulation of wine aging: I. Analysis of remnant polyphenolic compounds in the resulting wines.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazauric, Jean-Paul; Salmon, Jean-Michel

2005-07-13

Wine aging on yeast lees is a traditional enological practice used during the manufacture of wines. This technique has increased in popularity in recent years for the aging of red wines. Although wine polyphenols interact with yeast lees to a limited extent, such interactions have a large effect on the reactivity toward oxygen of wine polyphenolic compounds and yeast lees. Various domains of the yeast cell wall are protected by wine polyphenols from the action of extracellular hydrolytic enzymatic activities. Polysaccharides released during autolysis are thought to exert a significant effect on the sensory qualities of wine. We studied the chemical composition of polyphenolic compounds remaining in solution or adsorbed on yeast lees after various contact times during the simulation of wine aging. The analysis of the remnant polyphenols in the wine indicated that wine polyphenols adsorption on yeast lees follows biphasic kinetics. An initial and rapid fixation is followed by a slow, constant, and saturating fixation that reaches its maximum after about 1 week. Only very few monomeric phenolic compounds remained adsorbed on yeast lees, and no preferential adsorption of low or high polymeric size tannins occurred. The remnant condensed tannins in the wine contained fewer epigallocatechin units than the initial tannins, indicating that polar condensed tannins were preferentially adsorbed on yeast lees. Conversely, the efficiency of anthocyanin adsorption on yeast lees was unrelated to its polarity.

The next mesothelioma wave: mortality trends and forecast to 2030 in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Algranti, Eduardo; Saito, Cézar Akiyoshi; Carneiro, Ana Paula Scalia; Moreira, Bruno; Mendonça, Elizabete Medina Coeli; Bussacos, Marco Antonio

2015-10-01

There are limited data on mesothelioma mortality in industrializing countries, where, at present, most of the asbestos consumption occurs. To analyze temporal trends and to calculate mortality rates from mesothelioma and cancer of the pleura in Brazil from 2000 to 2012 and to estimate future mortality rates. We retrieved records of deaths from mesothelioma (ICD-10C45) and cancer of the pleura (ICD-10C38.4) from 2000 to 2012 in adults aged 30 years and over. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated. Rate ratios of mean crude mortality for selected municipalities were compared to the Brazilian rate. A regression was carried out of the annual number of deaths against asbestos consumption using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The best model was chosen to estimate the future burden and peak period of deaths. There were 929C45 and 1379 C38.4 deaths. The ratio of men to women for C45 was 1.4. A positive trend in C45 numbers was observed in Brazil (p=0.0012), particularly in São Paulo (p=0.0004) where ASMRs presented an increasing linear trend (p=0.0344). Selected municipalities harboring asbestos manipulation presented 3.7-11 fold rate ratios of C45 compared to Brazil. GAM presented best fits for latencies of 34 years or more. It is estimated that the peak incidence of C45 mortality will occur between 2021 and 2026. The observed ASMRs and the gender ratio close to 1 suggest underreporting. Even so, deaths are increasing and mesothelioma clusters were identified. Compared to industrialized countries Brazil displays a 15-20 year lag in estimated peak mesothelioma mortality which is consistent with the lag of asbestos peak consumption in the country. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outlining the influence of non-conventional yeasts in wine ageing over lees.

Science.gov (United States)

Belda, Ignacio; Navascués, Eva; Marquina, Domingo; Santos, Antonio; Calderón, Fernando; Benito, Santiago

2016-07-01

During the last decade, the use of innovative yeast cultures of both Saccharomyces cerevisiae and non-Saccharomyces yeasts as alternative tools to manage the winemaking process have turned the oenology industry. Although the contribution of different yeast species to wine quality during fermentation is increasingly understood, information about their role in wine ageing over lees is really scarce. This work aims to analyse the incidence of three non-Saccharomyces yeast species of oenological interest (Torulaspora delbrueckii, Lachancea thermotolerans and Metschnikowia pulcherrima) and of a commercial mannoprotein-overproducer S. cerevisiae strain compared with a conventional industrial yeast strain during wine ageing over lees. To evaluate their incidence in mouthfeel properties of wine after 4 months of ageing, the mannoprotein content of wines was evaluated, together with other wine analytic parameters, such as colour and aroma, biogenic amines and amino acids profile. Some differences among the studied parameters were observed during the study, especially regarding the mannoprotein concentration of wines. Our results suggest that the use of T. delbrueckii lees in wine ageing is a useful tool for the improvement of overall wine quality by notably increasing mannoproteins, reaching values higher than obtained using a S. cerevisiae overproducer strain. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Selective Migration among Southern Blacks: A Reinterpretation of Lee (1951).

Science.gov (United States)

Wolff, JosePh L.

1979-01-01

Explanations of differences in IQs of Northern and Southern Blacks focus on selective migration (hereditarians) or environmental causes such as education, discrimination and cultural deprivation. In this paper the environmentalist position is questioned and certain neglected features of Lee's data are construed as providing strong evidence for…

Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

2004-01-01

The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

Intense cold and mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): study of mortality trigger thresholds from 1975 to 2003

Science.gov (United States)

Miron, Isidro J.; Montero, Juan Carlos; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Linares, Cristina; Díaz, Julio

2012-01-01

Studies on temperature-mortality time trends especially address heat, so that any contribution on the subject of cold is necessarily of interest. This study describes the modification of the lagged effects of cold on mortality in Castile-La Mancha from 1975 to 2003, with the novelty of also approaching this aspect in terms of mortality trigger thresholds. Cross-correlation functions (CCFs) were thus established with 15 lags, after application of ARIMA models to the mortality data and minimum daily temperatures (from November to March), and the results for the periods 1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2003 were then compared. In addition, daily mortality residuals for the periods 1975-1989 and 1990-2003 were related to minimum temperatures grouped in 2°C intervals, with a cold threshold temperature being obtained in cases where such residuals increased significantly ( p economic conditions over the study period. Evidence was shown of the effects of cold on mortality, a finding that renders the adoption of preventive measures advisable in any case where intense cold is forecast.

How many years of life did the fall of the Berlin Wall add? A projection of East German life expectancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogt, Tobias C

2013-01-01

In the two decades since reunification, East Germans have experienced a large increase in life expectancy and a convergence with the West German mortality level. This gain in life expectancy appears even more impressive if we assume a different scenario in which the Berlin Wall did not fall, and the old East Germany still existed. This analysis takes into account that East German mortality would not have remained static without reunification. Thus, it shows how many years of life expectancy were actually added by the fall of the Berlin Wall. The analysis shows the improvements for single age groups by projecting life expectancy based on mortality levels during the 1970s and 1980s using the Lee-Carter method. I use national-level data for both sexes for East Germany before reunification. I find that, without reunification, current life expectancy at birth among East Germans would be 4.0 years lower for females and 5.7 years lower for males. I also show that older East Germans were the main demographic beneficiaries of reunification. Female and male mortality improvements in the age groups above 60 contributed up to 80% to the actual gains in life expectancy. Had the Berlin Wall not fallen, East German mortality would not have remained static but improved at a far slower rate. Thus, this counterfactual approach shows for the first time how many years of life were actually gained by reunification and how much of these gains were attributable to mortality improvements among the elderly. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Lee Miller à travers la Roumanie, l’appareil photo à la main (1946

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrian-Silvan Ionescu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A former model and fashion photographer turned war photographer, Lee Miller visited Romania twice, in 1938 and 1946 respectively. After her second visit she published her impressions and pictures, under the title of Roumania, in Vogue magazine. Besides the published material there are her manuscripts from The Lee Miller Achives at Farley Farm House, East Sussex, England, on which this paper is based. She crossed the border coming from Hungary in early February 1946. Heading for Sibiu her car, a Chevrolet Sedan, slipping on the ice-covered road, stopped on a snowbank far off in the ditch. While looking for help in the nearby village she and her companions left the car unguarded to discover it plundered of everything, wheels included.On a Sunday afternoon she had the privilege of being received by King Mihai I and Queen Mother Elena with whom she talked exstensively. She also took magnificent pictures with the Royal Family in the imposing Peleş Castle. At Sinaia, „the summer capital of Roumania” she had also the opportunity to portray Dinu Brătianu and Iuliu Maniu, the two elderly statesmen. Maniu was surrounded by friends and party members, among whom was young Corneliu Coposu, his private secretary.Moving to Bucharest, she met old friends such as Harri Brauner and his wife, Lena Constante, with whom she wandered through the country eight years ago. Lena and Elena Pătrășcanu, wife of Lucrețiu Pătrășcanu, Minister of Justice, have started a successful marionette theatre where Lee took nice pictures. Other were taken on the streets, with peasants, street vendors and their customers. Harri took her to a bistro where they met Maria Lătărețu, the celebrating folk singer whom Brauner recorded many times. They enjoyed her songs. Suffering from fibrositis, Lee Miller undertook a peculiar treatment in a gypsy village where the inhabitants were dancing bears trainers. She was massaged by a bear weighing about 300 pounds while Brauner took

Forecast Combinations

OpenAIRE

Timmermann, Allan G

2005-01-01

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

OpenAIRE

Roy Batchelor

2007-01-01

This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

Brassia campestris L. ssp. chinensis L.var. utilis Tsen et Lee

African Journals Online (AJOL)

omodibo

2012-12-31

Dec 31, 2012 ... On the basis of morphological and cultural features, the pathogen ... Alternaria isolate from Purple-Caitai showed 99% identity with other ITS sequences of .... Cho KH, Park SH, Kim KT, Kim S, Kim JS, Park BS, Woo JG, Lee HJ.

Numerical Simulation of a Lee Wave Case over Three-Dimensional Mountainous Terrain under Strong Wind Condition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Li

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study of a lee wave event over three-dimensional (3D mountainous terrain in Lantau Island, Hong Kong, using a simulation combining mesoscale model and computational fluid dynamics (CFD model has shown that (1 3D steep mountainous terrain can trigger small scale lee waves under strong wind condition, and the horizontal extent of the wave structure is in a dimension of few kilometers and corresponds to the dimension of the horizontal cross-section of the mountain; (2 the life cycle of the lee wave is short, and the wave structures will continuously form roughly in the same location, then gradually move downstream, and dissipate over time; (3 the lee wave triggered by the mountainous terrain in this case can be categorized into “nonsymmetric vortex shedding” or “turbulent wake,” as defined before based on water tank experiments; (4 the magnitude of the wave is related to strength of wind shear. This study also shows that a simulation combining mesoscale model and CFD can capture complex wave structure in the boundary layer over realistic 3D steep terrain, and have a potential value for operational jobs on air traffic warning, wind energy utilization, and atmospheric environmental assessment.

Forecast combinations

OpenAIRE

Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

2010-01-01

We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

Diversity: Then Is Now. Commentary on Carter, J. R. (1978) Multicultural Graduate Library Education. (Journal of Education for Librarianship, 18(4), 295-314)

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Lorienne

2015-01-01

Robbins Carter's portrait of the librarian workforce is still true. According to the latest American Library Association (ALA) demographics, the profile of today's librarian is that of a white (87.1 percent) woman (80.7 percent) of middle age (57.1 percent, age 45 or older) (ALA, 2013). Despite these data, support for increased diversity is…

Effectiveness of National Weather Service heat alerts in preventing mortality in 20 US cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinberger, Kate R; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Wellenius, Gregory A

2018-04-09

Extreme heat is a well-documented public health threat. The US National Weather Service (NWS) issues heat advisories and warnings (collectively, "heat alerts") in advance of forecast extreme heat events. The effectiveness of these alerts in preventing deaths remains largely unknown. To quantify the change in mortality rates associated with heat alerts in 20 US cities between 2001 and 2006. Because NWS heat alerts are issued based on forecast weather and these forecasts are imperfect, in any given location there exists a set of days of similar observed heat index in which heat alerts have been issued for some days but not others. We used a case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to compare mortality rates on days with versus without heat alerts among such eligible days, adjusting for maximum daily heat index and temporal factors. We combined city-specific estimates into a summary measure using standard random-effects meta-analytic techniques. Overall, NWS heat alerts were not associated with lower mortality rates (percent change in rate: -0.5% [95% CI: -2.8, 1.9]). In Philadelphia, heat alerts were associated with a 4.4% (95% CI: -8.3, -0.3) lower mortality rate or an estimated 45.1 (95% empirical CI: 3.1, 84.1) deaths averted per year if this association is assumed to be causal. No statistically significant beneficial association was observed in other individual cities. Our results suggest that between 2001 and 2006, NWS heat alerts were not associated with lower mortality in most cities studied, potentially missing a valuable opportunity to avert a substantial number of heat-related deaths. These results highlight the need to better link alerts to effective communication and intervention strategies to reduce heat-related mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: some further considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

van Baal, Pieter H; Wong, Albert

2012-12-01

Although the effect of time to death (TTD) on health care expenditures (HCE) has been investigated using individual level data, the most profound implications of TTD have been for the forecasting of macro-level HCE. Here we estimate the TTD model using macro-level data from the Netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age- and gender-specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981-2007. Forecasts for the years 2008-2020 of this macro-level TTD model were compared to forecasts that excluded TTD. Results revealed that the effect of TTD on HCE in our macro model was similar to those found in micro-econometric studies. As the inclusion of TTD pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards, however, the two models' forecasts of HCE for the 2008-2020 were similar. We argue that including TTD, if modeled correctly, does not lower forecasts of HCE. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

Markkinointisuunnitelma digitaaliseen markkinointiin Case Baan Lee Beach Resort & Sauna

OpenAIRE

Lähteenmäki, Essi

2017-01-01

Tämän opinnäytetyön tavoitteena on kehittää Baan Lee Beach Resort & Saunan digitaalista markkinointia markkinointisuunnitelman avulla. Yritys on aloittamassa liiketoimintaansa erittäin kilpailulla alalla, jossa digitaalinen markkinointi on tärkeä osa kilpailussa menestymistä ja se on otettava huomioon yrityksen markkinointistrategian tärkeänä osana. Markkinointisuunnitelmalla pyritään takaamaan markkinointistrategian mukainen toiminta. Markkinointisuunnitelmassa kuvataan yrityksen nykyti...

Servicing the first web server - Tim Berners-Lee's NeXT

CERN Multimedia

unknown, Association aBCM

2009-01-01

In August 2009 a team from the Association aBCM in Lausanne came to CERN to give the world's first web server a health check under the watchful eye of web pioneer Robert Cailliau. They took an image of the hard drive at this time, copies of which were given to Robert Cailliau and Tim Berners-Lee.

Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

A relation between deformed superspace and Lee-Wick higher-derivative theories

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, M.; Ferrari, A. F.; Palechor, C. A.; Senise, C. R., Jr.

2015-07-01

We propose a non-anticommutative superspace that relates to the Lee-Wick type of higher-derivative theories, which are known for their interesting properties and have led to proposals of phenomenologically viable higher-derivative extensions of the Standard Model. The deformation of superspace we consider does not preserve supersymmetry or associativity in general, but, we show that a non-anticommutative version of the Wess-Zumino model can be properly defined. In fact, the definition of chiral and antichiral superfields turns out to be simpler in our case than in the well known N=1/2 supersymmetric case. We show that when the theory is truncated at the first nontrivial order in the deformation parameter, supersymmetry is restored, and we end up with a well-known Lee-Wick type of higher-derivative extension of the Wess-Zumino model. Thus, we show how non-anticommutativity could provide an alternative mechanism for generating these higher-derivative theories.

Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puechl, K.H.

1975-01-01

The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puechl, K H

1975-12-01

The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

'The body does matter': Women as embodied social subjects in Angela Carter's Nights at the Circus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milosavljević Tatjana B.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Postmodernism posed a crucial ontological challenge to reality, questioning what constitutes the real world, simultaneously interrogating the horizon of representation of this unstable reality in fiction. Feminism on the other hand equipped us with critical tools for interpreting the reality of being in the world in a gendered body, as well as with a conceptual apparatus for interpreting the manifold institutional and private oppressions of women's bodies that play out in women's daily lives and in the discourses that shape them, literary discourse being one of them. This paper argues that Angela Carter's 1984 novel Nights at the Circus, which is widely held as a postfeminist text due to its narrative commitment to transcending gender binaries, essentially uses the strategies of postmodern storytelling and characterization in order to explore women's embodied potentialities of agency i.e. their construction of subjectivity through body. We will argue that the hybrid magic realist narrative constructs Fevvers' body as a titillating postmodern performance, ontologically illusive and elusive, yet it grounds that same body in various socially effected predicaments and experiences that serve to show that even in the midst of a play of signifiers, in Patricia Waugh's words, 'the body does matter, at least to what has been the dominant perspective within British female fiction' (Waugh, 2006, p. 196. In other words, it may be argued that Carter's novel is invested in traditional second-wave feminist politics to the extent that it shows that a woman's body is an indispensable medium of being in the world with material consequences that bear on the formation of her subjectivity and possibility of agency, and through which she acts out her relationships to others and is acted upon.

Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinyin Ye

2016-01-01

Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

2012-01-01

Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

Optimization Evaluation: Lee Chemical Superfund Site, City Of Liberty, Clay County, Missouri

Science.gov (United States)

The Lee Chemical Superfund Site (site) is located along Missouri Highway 210 in Liberty, Missouri, approximately 15 miles east of Kansas City, Missouri. Currently, the site is a vacant lot of approximately2.5 acres in a flat alluvial plain.

Forecasting freight flows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

2011-01-01

Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

The Carter Center Mental Health Program: addressing the public health crisis in the field of mental health through policy change and stigma reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Palpant, Rebecca G; Steimnitz, Rachael; Bornemann, Thomas H; Hawkins, Katie

2006-04-01

Some of the most pervasive and debilitating illnesses are mental illnesses, according to World Health Organization's The World Health Report 2001--Mental Health: New Understanding, New Hope. Neuropsychiatric conditions account for four of the top five leading causes of years of life lived with disability in people aged 15 to 44 in the Western world. Many barriers prevent people with mental illnesses from seeking care, such as prohibitive costs, lack of insurance, and the stigma and discrimination associated with mental illnesses. The Carter Center Mental Health Program, established in 1991, focuses on mental health policy issues within the United States and internationally. This article examines the public health crisis in the field of mental health and focuses on The Carter Center Mental Health Program's initiatives, which work to increase public knowledge of and decrease the stigma associated with mental illnesses through their four strategic goals: reducing stigma and discrimination against people with mental illnesses; achieving equity of mental health care comparable with other health services; advancing early promotion, prevention, and early intervention services for children and their families; and increasing public awareness about mental illnesses and mental health issues.

Robust forecast comparison

OpenAIRE

Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

2015-01-01

Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

CONVERTING THE 'RIGHT TO LIFE' TO THE 'RIGHT TO PHYSICIAN-ASSISTED SUICIDE AND EUTHANASIA': AN ANALYSIS OF CARTER V CANADA (ATTORNEY GENERAL), SUPREME COURT OF CANADA.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Benny; Somerville, Margaret

2016-01-01

In its landmark decision Carter v Canada (Attorney General), the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that the criminal prohibition on physician-assisted suicide and euthanasia for certain persons in certain circumstances violated their rights to life, liberty, and security of the person in sec. 7 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and thus was unconstitutional. The Supreme Court in effect overruled its earlier decision, Rodriguez v British Columbia (Attorney General), which upheld the prohibition as constitutionally valid, on the basis of changes in Charter jurisprudence and in the social facts since Rodriguez was decided. We argue that the Supreme Court's Carter decision shows conceptual disagreements with its Rodriguez decision concerning the nature and scope of the sec. 7-protected interests and the accompanying principles of fundamental justice. Not only do these conceptual differences have little to do with the changes that the Court in Carter invoked for 'revisiting' Rodriguez, the Court's articulation of the sec. 7 interests, particularly the right to life, and the principles of fundamental justice, especially the principle of over breadth, are problematic on their own terms. Furthermore, the way in which the Court dealt with evidence regarding abuses in permissive jurisdictions is also subject to criticism. We recommend that if, as now seems inevitable, legislation is introduced, it should mandate that assisted suicide and euthanasia be performed by specially licensed non-medical personnel and only on the authorization of a Superior Court judge. We also reject the key recommendations recently issued by the Provincial-Territorial Expert Advisory Group on Physician-Assisted Dying. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press; all rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Komisjon plaanib ökotoodete eelistamist liidu hangetel / Merike Lees

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Lees, Merike, 1976-

2004-01-01

Euroopa Komisjon kavatseb luua reeglid, mis annavad hangetel eelise lisaks keskkonnajuhtimisstandardeid rakendanud ettevõtetele ka ühenduse ökomärgist omavatele toodetele. Ettevõtete juhtide kommentaarid ökomärgise kasutamise kohta. Lisad: Ökotoode peab vastama ligi paarikümnele kriteeriumile; Ökomärgise litsentsi eeltöö tehakse Eestis. Vt. samas: Ökomärgise litsentsi väljastav pädev asutus tuleb Eestisse. Kommenteerivad Merike Lees ja Anu-Maaja Pallok

Forecasting Skill

Science.gov (United States)

1981-01-01

for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

Tentative identification of polar and mid-polar compounds in extracts from wine lees by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in high-resolution mode.

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado de la Torre, M P; Priego-Capote, F; Luque de Castro, M D

2015-06-01

Sustainable agriculture has a pending goal in the revalorization of agrofood residues. Wine lees are an abundant residue in the oenological industry. This residue, so far, has been used to obtain tartaric acid or pigments but not for being qualitatively characterized as a source of polar and mid-polar compounds such as flavonoids, phenols and essential amino acids. Lees extracts from 11 Spanish wineries have been analyzed by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in high resolution mode. The high-resolution power of LC-MS/MS has led to the tentative identification of the most representative compounds present in wine lees, comprising primary amino acids, anthocyans, flavanols, flavonols, flavones and non-flavonoid phenolic compounds, among others. Attending to the profile and content of polar and mid-polar compounds in wine lees, this study underlines the potential of wine lees as an exploitable source to isolate interesting compounds. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

2009-01-01

The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

CONVERTING THE ‘RIGHT TO LIFE’ TO THE ‘RIGHT TO PHYSICIAN-ASSISTED SUICIDE AND EUTHANASIA’: AN ANALYSIS OF CARTER V CANADA (ATTORNEY GENERAL), SUPREME COURT OF CANADA

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Benny; Somerville, Margaret

2016-01-01

In its landmark decision Carter v Canada (Attorney General), the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that the criminal prohibition on physician-assisted suicide and euthanasia for certain persons in certain circumstances violated their rights to life, liberty, and security of the person in sec. 7 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and thus was unconstitutional. The Supreme Court in effect overruled its earlier decision, Rodriguez v British Columbia (Attorney General), which upheld the prohibition as constitutionally valid, on the basis of changes in Charter jurisprudence and in the social facts since Rodriguez was decided. We argue that the Supreme Court's Carter decision shows conceptual disagreements with its Rodriguez decision concerning the nature and scope of the sec. 7-protected interests and the accompanying principles of fundamental justice. Not only do these conceptual differences have little to do with the changes that the Court in Carter invoked for ‘revisiting’ Rodriguez, the Court's articulation of the sec. 7 interests, particularly the right to life, and the principles of fundamental justice, especially the principle of over breadth, are problematic on their own terms. Furthermore, the way in which the Court dealt with evidence regarding abuses in permissive jurisdictions is also subject to criticism. We recommend that if, as now seems inevitable, legislation is introduced, it should mandate that assisted suicide and euthanasia be performed by specially licensed non-medical personnel and only on the authorization of a Superior Court judge. We also reject the key recommendations recently issued by the Provincial-Territorial Expert Advisory Group on Physician-Assisted Dying. PMID:27099364

HISTORY EDUCATION - SOME THOUGHTS FROM THE UK: interviews Peter J. Lee

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristiani Bereta da Silva

2014-05-01

Peter Lee was, until he very recently retired, a senior lecturer in the History Education Unit at the Institute of Education at the University of London. Having taught History in primary and secondary schools, Professor Lee has coordinated several research projects related to History Teaching and Learning, including CHATA (Concepts of History and Teaching Approaches a project well-known in Brazil. Several of his publications investigate the ideas that children and teenagers have over History in several books, chapters, and articles – many of these with Rosalyn Ashby as co-author.  Some of his articles have been translated to Portuguese, circulating among researchers concerned with understanding how children learn History. The questions in this interview have been elaborated so that Peter Lee’s reflections may collaborate with the development of History Teaching and History Education research in Brazil. All contact has been made via e-mail, a rather useful tool that has shortened the distance between Florianópolis and London for a few long moments between July and October 2012.

Forecasting non-stationary diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria time-series in Niono, Mali.

Science.gov (United States)

Medina, Daniel C; Findley, Sally E; Guindo, Boubacar; Doumbia, Seydou

2007-11-21

Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions

National Forecast Charts

Science.gov (United States)

code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

' "Life is Movement": Vernon Lee and Sculpture'

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østermark-Johansen, Lene

2018-01-01

How do living, breathing human bodies respond to the inert bodies of sculpture? This article examines some of the art-theoretical and psychological writings of Violet Paget (‘Vernon Lee’) and Clementina Anstruther-Thomson of the 1880s and 1890s in an attempt to map the evolution of their formalist...... art criticism. Engaging with the eighteenth-century ghosts of Johann Joachim Winckelmann and Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Lee and Anstruther-Thomson created their very own exploration of art forms evolving in space and in time. Questioning how our reading of literature affects our reading of sculpture...... from Lee’s early essays in Belcaro: Being Essays on Sundry Aesthetical Questions (1881) to the late collaborative volume Art and Man (1924)....

The Health Equity and Effectiveness of Policy Options to Reduce Dietary Salt Intake in England: Policy Forecast.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Duncan O S Gillespie

Full Text Available Public health action to reduce dietary salt intake has driven substantial reductions in coronary heart disease (CHD over the past decade, but avoidable socio-economic differentials remain. We therefore forecast how further intervention to reduce dietary salt intake might affect the overall level and inequality of CHD mortality.We considered English adults, with socio-economic circumstances (SEC stratified by quintiles of the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We used IMPACTSEC, a validated CHD policy model, to link policy implementation to salt intake, systolic blood pressure and CHD mortality. We forecast the effects of mandatory and voluntary product reformulation, nutrition labelling and social marketing (e.g., health promotion, education. To inform our forecasts, we elicited experts' predictions on further policy implementation up to 2020. We then modelled the effects on CHD mortality up to 2025 and simultaneously assessed the socio-economic differentials of effect.Mandatory reformulation might prevent or postpone 4,500 (2,900-6,100 CHD deaths in total, with the effect greater by 500 (300-700 deaths or 85% in the most deprived than in the most affluent. Further voluntary reformulation was predicted to be less effective and inequality-reducing, preventing or postponing 1,500 (200-5,000 CHD deaths in total, with the effect greater by 100 (-100-600 deaths or 49% in the most deprived than in the most affluent. Further social marketing and improvements to labelling might each prevent or postpone 400-500 CHD deaths, but minimally affect inequality.Mandatory engagement with industry to limit salt in processed-foods appears a promising and inequality-reducing option. For other policy options, our expert-driven forecast warns that future policy implementation might reach more deprived individuals less well, limiting inequality reduction. We therefore encourage planners to prioritise equity.

Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Feng-Jenq

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

Looking for Asian butch-dykes: exploring filmic representations of East Asian butch-dykes in Donna Lee's Enter the Mullet.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Hui-Ling

2009-01-01

Asian butch-dykes have been overlooked in analyses of Chinese cinema, studies that often concentrate on "feminized" transgender roles. This article examines cinematic representations of Asian butch-dykes through film analysis of Enter the Mullet (2004), a five-minute short, and in-depth interviews with the filmmaker, Donna Lee, a Chinese-Canadian in Vancouver. Lee's film is inspired by Enter the Dragon (1973), starring Bruce Lee, the most recognized icon of Asian masculinity. Combining with the mullet hairstyle, which is often associated with White working-class, the filmmaker introduces viewers to the hybrid masculinity of Asian butch-dykes. The article argues that Asian female masculinity can be a strategic means of destabilizing the hegemony of White-male-middle-class masculinity.

Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

Vertical structure and microphysical characteristics of precipitation on the high terrain and lee side of the Olympic Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Zagrodnik, J. P.; McMurdie, L. A.; Houze, R.

2017-12-01

As mid-latitude cyclones pass over coastal mountain ranges, the processes producing their clouds and precipitation are modified when they encounter complex terrain, leading to a maximum in precipitation fallout on the windward slopes and a minimum on the lee side. The precipitation that does reach the high terrain and lee side of a mountain range can be theoretically determined by a complex interaction between the dynamics of air lifting over the terrain, the thermodynamics of moist air, and the microphysical time required to grow particles large enough to fall out. To date, there have been few observational studies that have focused on the nonlinear microphysical processes contributing to the variability of precipitation that is received on the lee side slopes of a mountain range such as the Olympic Mountains. The 2015-16 Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) collected unprecedented observations on the high terrain and lee side of the Olympic Mountains including frequent soundings on Vancouver Island, dual-polarization Doppler radar, multi-frequency airborne radar, and ground-based particle size and crystal habit observations at the higher elevation Hurricane Ridge site. We utilize these observations to examine the evolution of the vertical structure and microphysical precipitation characteristics over the high terrain and leeside within the context of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that evolve during the passage of cold season mid-latitude cyclones. The primary goal is to determine the degree to which the observed variability in lee side precipitation amount and microphysical properties are controlled by variations in temperature, flow speed and direction, shear, and stability associated with characteristic synoptic storm sectors and frontal passages.

Ischaemic heart disease mortality and the business cycle in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bunn, A R

1979-01-01

Trends in Australian heart disease mortality were assessed for association with the business cycle. Correlation models of mortality and unemployment series were used to test for association. An indicator series of "national stress" was developed. The three series were analyzed in path models to quantify the links between unemployment, national stress, and heart disease. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and national stress were found to follow the business cycle. The two periods of accelerating IHD mortality coincided with economic recession. The proposed "wave hypothesis" links the trend in IHD mortality to the high unemployment of severe recession. The mortality trend describes a typical epidemic parabolic path from the Great Depression to 1975, with a smaller parabolic trend at the 1961 recession. These findings appear consistent with the hypothesis that heart disease is, to some degree, a point source epidemic arising with periods of severe economic recession. Forecasts under the hypothesis indicate a turning point in the mortality trend between 1976 and 1978. (Am J Public Health 69:772-781, 1979). PMID:453409

On the Seventh Day, He Rested: Lee Kuan Yew and the Creation of Singapore

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Neary, Patrick C

1997-01-01

...-oriented domestic policies in pursuit of national goals. Lee's paternal authoritarianism proved to be highly successful, but this success sowed the seeds of discontent now producing weeds in his island paradise.

A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Xiaoxin; Sun, Baiqing; Jin, Zhanyong

2016-12-01

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.

Phenolic characterization of aging wine lees: Correlation with antioxidant activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Romero-Díez, R; Rodríguez-Rojo, S; Cocero, M J; Duarte, C M M; Matias, A A; Bronze, M R

2018-09-01

Aging wine lees are water-wastes produced during the wine aging inside wood barrels that can be considered as alternative sources of bioactive compounds. Phenolic characterization and antioxidant activity (AA) measurements of wines lees solid-liquid extracts have been undertaken on a dry extract (DE) basis. Solvents with different polarities (water, methanol, ethanol, two hydroalcoholic mixtures and acetone) were used. Total phenolic (TPC) and total flavonoid contents (TFC) were determined. The mixture of 75:25(v/v) EtOH:H 2 O showed the highest values with 254 mg GAE /g DE and 146 mg CATE /g DE respectively. HORAC, HOSC and FRAP were used to determine the AA of the extracts being also highest for the mixture of 75:25(v/v) EtOH:H 2 O (4690 µmol CAE /g DE , 4527 µmol TE /g DE and 2197 µmol TE /g DE , respectively). For ORAC method, methanol extract showed the best value with 2771 µmol TE /g DE . Correlations between TPC, TFC, phenolic compounds and AA were determined. Most relevant compounds contributing to AA were identified using data from mass spectrometry, being mainly anthocyanins. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lee-side flow structures of very low aspect ratio cruciform wing–body configurations

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Tuling, S

2013-12-01

Full Text Available A numerical and experimental investigation was performed to study the dominant flow structures in the lee side of a cruciform wing–body configuration at supersonic speeds in the + orientation. The wings or strakes are of very low aspect ratio...

Näitleja Tommy Lee Jonesi meditatsioon režissööritoolis / Andris Feldmanis

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Feldmanis, Andris, 1982-

2007-01-01

Vestern "Melquiades Estrada kolm matust" ("The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada") : stsenarist Guillermo Arriaga : režissöör ja osatäitja Tommy Lee Jones : operaator Chris Menges : Ameerika Ühendriigid, 2005

Comparison of a new digital KM screen test with conventional Hess and Lees screen tests in the mapping of ocular deviations.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorisdottir, Rannveig Linda; Sundgren, Johanna; Sheikh, Rafi; Blohmé, Jonas; Hammar, Björn; Kjellström, Sten; Malmsjö, Malin

2018-05-28

To evaluate the digital KM screen computerized ocular motility test and to compare it with conventional nondigital techniques using the Hess and Lees screens. Patients with known ocular deviations and a visual acuity of at least 20/100 underwent testing using the digital KM screen and the Hess and Lees screen tests. The examination duration, the subjectively perceived difficulty, and the patient's method of choice were compared for the three tests. The accuracy of test results was compared using Bland-Altman plots between testing methods. A total of 19 patients were included. Examination with the digital KM screen test was less time-consuming than tests with the Hess and Lees screens (P digital KM screen). Patients found the test with the digital KM screen easier to perform than the Lees screen test (P = 0.009) but of similar difficulty to the Hess screen test (P = 0.203). The majority of the patients (83%) preferred the digital KM screen test to both of the other screen methods (P = 0.008). Bland-Altman plots showed that the results obtained with all three tests were similar. The digital KM screen is accurate and time saving and provides similar results to Lees and Hess screen testing. It also has the advantage of a digital data analysis and registration. Copyright © 2018 American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inflation Forecast Contracts

OpenAIRE

Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

2012-01-01

We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

The Pitzer-Lee-Kesler-Teja (PLKT) Strategy and Its Implementation by Meta-Computing Software

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Smith, W. R.; Lísal, Martin; Missen, R. W.

2001-01-01

Roč. 35, č. 1 (2001), s. 68-73 ISSN 0009-2479 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z4072921 Keywords : The Pitzer -Lee-Kesler-Teja (PLKT) strategy * implementation Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry

Ocean PHILLS Data Collection and Processing: May 2000 Deployment, Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Leathers, Robert

2002-01-01

.... It was deployed in a region near Lee Stocking Island (LSI), Bahamas in May 2000. This document describes the LSI 2000 PHILLS data set and the manner in which it was processed to obtain remote-sensing reflectance images for use by the scientific community...

Comparison of Benedict-Webb-Rubin, Starling and Lee-Kesler equations of state for use in P-V-T calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McFee, D.G.; Mueller, K.H.; Lielmezs, J.

1982-01-01

By means of the available experimental gas compressibility data, the predictive accuracy of the Benedict-Webb-Rubin, Starling and Lee-Kesler equations was tested over wide temperature and pressure ranges for the following commonly used industrial gases: CH 4 , C 2 H 6 , C 3 H 8 , CO 2 , Ar, He, H 2 and N 2 . The root mean square (RMS) percent errors calculated over the T-P range investigated for all compounds, showed a degree of superiority and ease of use of the Lee-Kesler equation over the Benedict-Webb-Rubin and Starling equations. In order to treat quantal fluids H 2 and He, the Benedict-Webb-Rubin equation was modified by making constant B 0 temperature dependent, while the Starling and Lee-Kesler equations were rewritten through inclusion of quantum effect corrected pseudo-critical state parameters. (orig.)

A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengshi Tian

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

77 FR 18852 - Lee Metcalf National Wildlife Refuge, Stevensville, MT; Draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan and...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-28

... business hours at the Lee Metcalf National Wildlife Refuge headquarters located at 4567 Wildfowl Lane... habitats and has created and modified wetlands. Riverfront forest includes early succession tree species...

Tuning of Lee Path Loss Model based on recent RF measurements in 400 MHZ conducted in Riyadh City, Saudi Arabia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alotaibi, Faihan D.; Ali, Adel A.

2008-01-01

In mobile radio systems, path loss models are necessary for proper planning, interference estimations, frequently assignments and cell parameters which are basic for network planning process as well as Location Based Services (LBS) techniques that are not based on GPS system. Empirical models are the most adjustable models that can be suited to different types of environments. In this paper, the Lee path loss model has been tuned using Least Square (LS) algorithm to fit measured data for TETRA system operating 400 MHz in Riyadh urban and suburbs. Consequently, Lee model's parameter (L0, y) are obtained for the targeted areas. The performance of the tuned Lee model is then compared to the three most widely used empirical path loss models: Hat, ITU-R and Cost 231 Walfisch-Ikegami non line-of-sight (CWI-NLOS) path loss models. The performance criterion selected for the comparison of various empirical path loss models are the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and goodness of fit (R2). The RMSE and R2between the actual and predicted data are calculated for various path loss models. It turned that the tuned Lee model outperforms the other empirical models. (author)

Lee as Critical Thinker: The Example of the Gettysburg Campaign

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-04

importance were “ Hannibal , Frederick the Great, and especially Napoleon, all of whom were models for Lee as he led the Army of Northern Virginia in battle...Cannae, Leuthen, and Austerlitz. The Battle of Cannae culminated in a double envelopment by Hannibal against the Romans and “is important…because...it shows how Hannibal was able to completely surround a much larger force Roman force (40,000 versus 70,000, as compared with Lee’s 74,000 facing

Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrian J Das

Full Text Available Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1 drought stress, or (2 the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Science.gov (United States)

Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

2015-01-01

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

Science.gov (United States)

Vincendon, J.-C.

2009-09-01

The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality in boreal North America using multiscale satellite data.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, Brendan M; Solvik, Kylen; Hogg, Edward H; Ju, Junchang; Masek, Jeffrey G; Michaelian, Michael; Berner, Logan T; Goetz, Scott J

2018-02-26

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The strategy of professional forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

2006-01-01

We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2010-01-01

textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

Low Oxygen Water (LOW) variability in the Benguela system: key processes and forcing scales relevant to forecasting

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Monteiro, PMS

2006-09-01

Full Text Available or mortality of rock lobster in the southern Benguela; Medium term (2 month) forecasting of the intensification of the remote forcing of ETSA derived LOW which has a bearing on the Namibian hake fishery These two scales are discussed in detail in the companion...

Load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mak, H.

1995-01-01

Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jui-Yi Ho

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

2017-01-01

forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

Strategic Forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

Spatial electric load forecasting

CERN Document Server

Willis, H Lee

2002-01-01

Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

State-space forecasting of Schistosoma haematobium time-series in Niono, Mali.

Science.gov (United States)

Medina, Daniel C; Findley, Sally E; Doumbia, Seydou

2008-08-13

Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with infectious diseases. The incidence of Schistosoma sp.-which are neglected tropical diseases exposing and infecting more than 500 and 200 million individuals in 77 countries, respectively-is rising because of 1) numerous irrigation and hydro-electric projects, 2) steady shifts from nomadic to sedentary existence, and 3) ineffective control programs. Notwithstanding the colossal scope of these parasitic infections, less than 0.5% of Schistosoma sp. investigations have attempted to predict their spatial and or temporal distributions. Undoubtedly, public health programs in developing countries could benefit from parsimonious forecasting and early warning systems to enhance management of these parasitic diseases. In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, the Schistosoma haematobium time-series for the district of Niono, Mali, was fitted with general-purpose exponential smoothing methods to generate contemporaneous on-line forecasts. These methods, which are encapsulated within a state-space framework, accommodate seasonal and inter-annual time-series fluctuations. Mean absolute percentage error values were circa 25% for 1- to 5-month horizon forecasts. The exponential smoothing state-space framework employed herein produced reasonably accurate forecasts for this time-series, which reflects the incidence of S. haematobium-induced terminal hematuria. It obliquely captured prior non-linear interactions between disease dynamics and exogenous covariates (e.g., climate, irrigation, and public health interventions), thus obviating the need for more complex forecasting methods in the district of Niono, Mali. Therefore, this framework could assist with managing and assessing S. haematobium transmission and intervention impact, respectively, in this district and potentially elsewhere in the Sahel.

Electricity demand forecasting techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gnanalingam, K.

1994-01-01

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

2018-04-17

Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Bai

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

2018-01-01

Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

Grey relational analysis for evaluating the effects of different rates of wine lees-derived biochar application on a plant-soil system with multi-metal contamination.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Min; Zhu, Qihong; Wu, Jun; He, Yan; Yang, Gang; Zhang, Xiaohong; Li, Li; Yu, Xiaoyu; Peng, Hong; Wang, Lilin

2018-03-01

In this study, grey relational analysis (GRA) was used to investigate the effects of different application rates of wine lees-derived biochar on a plant-soil system with multi-metal contamination. A pot experiment was conducted to determine rice growth in multi-metal-contaminated soil amended with samples of wine lees-derived biochar, and 47 indicators (including soil properties, microbial activity, and plant physiology) were selected as evaluation indexes to assess the plant-soil system. The results indicated that higher wine lees-derived biochar application rates (2% W/W) were favorable for soil fertility, the bioconcentration factor (BF), and the mobility factor (MF, %) (with the exception of Cr, Zn, and Hg), but an application of 1% produced the highest plant growth, enzymatic activities, and bacterial diversity. The richness of the bacterial communities was reduced in the soil amended with the wine lees-derived biochar. According to the GRA assessment, the 1% application rate of wine lees-derived biochar was more suitable for restoring the holistic plant-soil system than were the application rates of 0, 0.5, and 2% (W/W). Furthermore, this study shows that GRA is a useful method for evaluating plant-soil systems.

Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

OpenAIRE

Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

2009-01-01

We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

Increasing life expectancy and the growing elderly population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helge Brunborg

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The life expectancy has increased rapidly in Norway in recent decades, with about ¼ year per year. The increase has been particularly fast for men, following a temporary decline in the 1950s and 1960s. Statistics Norway’s mortality projections using the Lee-Carter method indicate further improvements in this century – about 10 years higher life expectancy at birth. This implies significant mortality declines for older persons as the mortality is now small for young people. With no deaths below age 50 the life expectancy would be only 1-2 years higher.Population projections are for several reasons important for studying population ageing, including to have knowledge about the future age structure, and to estimate the effects of possible policy changes. In addition, the mortality projections are used for several other purposes than for projecting the population, such as calculating future pensions according to the new pension system, where life expectancy improvements reduce the annual pensions.The population projections show that the population will age regardless of plausible assumptions made about the demographic components births, deaths, immigration and emigration. Policies to affect these components may only marginally affect future ageing, and in some cases in the wrong direction. The only factor that may significantly affect the future ratio of the working to the non-working population, the potential support ratio, is that people work longer. This ratio will remain at the current level if the pension age is increased from the current 67 years to 78 years at the end of the century. This may be possible if the health of old persons continues to improve.

Comparison of the fixed ratio and the Z-score of FEV1/FVC in the elderly population: a long-term mortality analysis from the Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oh DK

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Dong Kyu Oh,1 Seunghee Baek,2 Sei Won Lee,1 Jae Seung Lee,1 Sang-Do Lee,1 Yeon-Mok Oh1 1Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Clinical Research Center for Chronic Obstructive Airway Diseases, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea Background and objective: Despite the ongoing intense debate on the definition of airflow limitation by spirometry in the elderly population, there have only been few studies comparing the fixed ratio and the Z-score of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC in terms of long-term mortalities. In this study, we aimed to identify the proper method for accurately defining the airflow limitation in terms of long-term mortality prediction in the elderly population. Methods: Data were collected from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the US. Non-Hispanic Caucasians aged 65–80 years were included. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves of both methods were plotted and compared for 10-year all-cause, respiratory, and COPD mortalities. Results: Of 1,331 subjects, the mean age was 71.7 years and 805 (60.5% were males. For the 10-year all-cause mortality, the area under the curve (AUC of the fixed ratio was significantly greater than that of the Z-score of FEV1/FVC, but both showed poor prediction performance (0.633 vs 0.616, p<0.001. For the 10-year respiratory and COPD mortalities, both the fixed ratio and the Z-score of FEV1/FVC showed comparable prediction performance with greater AUCs (0.784 vs 0.778, p=0.160, and 0.896 vs 0.896, p=0.971, respectively. Interestingly, the conventional cutoff of 0.7 in the fixed ratio was consistently higher than the optimal for the 10-year all-cause, respiratory, and COPD mortalities (0.70 vs 0.69, 0.62, and 0.61, respectively

Nobelist TD LEE Scientist Cooperation Network and Scientist Innovation Ability Model

OpenAIRE

Fang, Jin-Qing; Liu, Qiang

2013-01-01

Nobelist TD Lee scientist cooperation network (TDLSCN) and their innovation ability are studied. It is found that the TDLSCN not only has the common topological properties both of scale-free and small-world for a general scientist cooperation networks, but also appears the creation multiple-peak phenomenon for number of published paper with year evolution, which become Nobelist TD Lee’s significant mark distinguished from other scientists. This new phenomenon has not been revealed in the scie...

klax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kprc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kogb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kiwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kavp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdca Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khib Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pavd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kfar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

koth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksgf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kftw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kabq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

katy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

tjmz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krkd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paor Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdrt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kstl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbfi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khsv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kekn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

tncm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kith Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgnv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktoi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

nstu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kflg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kaoo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmyl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kril Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbil Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krfd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kslk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

Robust Approaches to Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

2014-01-01

We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

2006-01-01

This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

Berners-Lee and the IPEN reality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sacramento, Jose Miguel Noronha; Rogero, Jose Roberto

2010-01-01

This article discusses a study held with researchers from IPEN and organizations that operate or could act as IPEN partners or clients on research projects and consumption of its products and services. The survey had its origin in the perception of the difficulties in alignment of IPEN with the demands of society, taking as a point of attention processes used in the disclosure and dissemination of scientific knowledge to the public other than the academic communities or specialists in the areas of IPEN usually operates. Were mapped communication flows between the researchers of IPEN and between companies and the IPEN so as to identify the necessary conditions to improve communication between different universes such as academic and business. The comparison of the conditions currently found in the IPEN with the 1991 initial proposal of Tim Berners-Lee when creating the World Wide Web to CERN and with web portals of organizations similar to IPEN provided valuable grants for the planning of next steps of IPEN organization in terms of its relationship with potential partners and, ultimately, the society. (author)

Increased Mortality in Relation to Insomnia and Obstructive Sleep Apnea in Korean Patients Studied with Nocturnal Polysomnography

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jae-Won; Song, Ji Soo; Lee, Yu Jin; Won, Tae-Bin; Jeong, Do-Un

2017-01-01

Study Objectives: To elucidate the links between the two most prevalent sleep disorders, insomnia and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and mortality. Methods: We studied 4,225 subjects who were referred to the Center for Sleep and Chronobiology, Seoul National University Hospital, from January 1994 to December 2008. We divided the subjects into five groups: mild OSA (5 ≤ AHI insomnia, and a no-sleep-disorder group consisting of subjects without sleep disorders. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR), hazard ratio, and the survival rates of the five groups were calculated and evaluated. Results: The SMR of all-cause mortality was significantly higher in the severe OSA group than in the general population (1.52, 95% CI 1.23–1.85, p cause mortality (HR 3.50, 95% CI 1.03–11.91, p = 0.045) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 17.16, 95% CI 2.29–128.83, p = 0.006). Cardiovascular mortality was also significantly elevated in the insomnia group (HR 8.11, 95% CI 1.03–63.58, p = 0.046). Conclusions: Severe OSA was associated with increased all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality compared to the no-sleep-disorder group. Insomnia was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality compared to the no-sleep-disorder group. Citation: Choi JW, Song JS, Lee YJ, Won TB, Jeong DU. Increased mortality in relation to insomnia and obstructive sleep apnea in Korean patients studied with nocturnal polysomnography. J Clin Sleep Med. 2017;13(1):49–56. PMID:27655449

An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

Science.gov (United States)

Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

2018-04-01

Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

Forecasting in Planning

OpenAIRE

Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

2004-01-01

This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

The Friedberg-Lee symmetry and minimal seesaw model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Xiaogang; Liao Wei

2009-01-01

The Friedberg-Lee (FL) symmetry is generated by a transformation of a fermionic field q to q+ξz. This symmetry puts very restrictive constraints on allowed terms in a Lagrangian. Applying this symmetry to N fermionic fields, we find that the number of independent fields is reduced to N-1 if the fields have gauge interaction or the transformation is a local one. Using this property, we find that a seesaw model originally with three generations of left- and right-handed neutrinos, with the left-handed neutrinos unaffected but the right-handed neutrinos transformed under the local FL translation, is reduced to an effective theory of minimal seesaw which has only two right-handed neutrinos. The symmetry predicts that one of the light neutrino masses must be zero.

Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Hopson, T. M.

2014-12-01

One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheng-Chi Yang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.

Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

About the National Forecast Chart

Science.gov (United States)

code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Lowe

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, P.; Govekar, E.; Grabec, I.

2007-01-01

Energy forecasting requirements for Slovenia's natural gas market were investigated along with the cycles of natural gas consumption. This paper presented a short-term natural gas forecasting approach where the daily, weekly and yearly gas consumption were analyzed and the information obtained was incorporated into the forecasting model for hourly forecasting for the next day. The natural gas market depends on forecasting in order to optimize the leasing of storage capacities. As such, natural gas distribution companies have an economic incentive to accurately forecast their future gas consumption. The authors proposed a forecasting model with the following properties: two submodels for the winter and summer seasons; input variables including past consumption data, weather data, weather forecasts and basic cycle indexes; and, a hierarchical forecasting structure in which a daily model was used as the basis, with the hourly forecast obtained by modeling the relative daily profile. This proposed method was illustrated by a forecasting example for Slovenia's natural gas market. 11 refs., 11 figs

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

THE YUAN-TSEH LEE ARRAY FOR MICROWAVE BACKGROUND ANISOTROPY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, Paul T. P.; Altamirano, Pablo; Chang, C.-H.; Chang, S.-H.; Chang, S.-W.; Chen, C.-C.; Chen, K.-J.; Chen, M.-T.; Han, C.-C.; Ho, West M.; Huang, Y.-D.; Hwang, Y.-J.; Ibanez-Romano, Fabiola; Jiang Homin; Koch, Patrick M.; Kubo, Derek Y.; Li, C.-T.; Lim, Jeremy; Lin, K.-Y.; Liu, G.-C.

2009-01-01

The Yuan-Tseh Lee Array for microwave background anisotropy is the first interferometer dedicated to study the cosmic microwave background radiation at 3 mm wavelength. The choice of 3 mm is to minimize the contributions from foreground synchrotron radiation and Galactic dust emission. The initial configuration of seven 0.6 m telescopes mounted on a 6 m hexapod platform was dedicated in 2006 October on Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Scientific operations began with the detection of a number of clusters of galaxies via the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect. We compare our data with Subaru weak-lensing data to study the structure of dark matter. We also compare our data with X-ray data to derive the Hubble constant.

Acceleration of ageing on lees in red wines by application of ultrasounds

OpenAIRE

Fresno, Juan Manuel del; Morata Barrado, Antonio Dionisio; Loira, Iris; Escott, Carlos; Cuerda, Rafael; Calderon Fernandez, Fernando; Suarez Lepe, Jose Antonio

2017-01-01

A transfer of parietal polysaccharides and mannoproteins is produced during aging on lees [1]. This transfer of compounds to wine is carried out after cell death. It comes to breakdown of polysaccharides from cell wall (yeast autolysis). This technique increases the density in wines [2] and gives more body and structure. Interactions between yeast polysaccharides and wine tannins will result in decrease of tannic perception (decrease of astringency). Increase of varietal characteristics is pr...

Analysis and out-year forecast of beetle, borer, and drought-induced tree mortality in California

Science.gov (United States)

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Nancy E. Grulke; Zachary Heath; Sheri L. Smith

2017-01-01

The level of tree mortality and drought observed over the past decade in North America has been described as ‘unparalleled’ in our modern history, in particular in the Sierra Nevada, California. Forest managers could use early warning of where and how much tree mortality to expect in the very near future to plan and prioritize hazard tree removal, pest suppression...

Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

Science.gov (United States)

Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

2017-12-01

Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

The Brain Dead Patient Is Still Sentient: A Further Reply to Patrick Lee and Germain Grisez.

Science.gov (United States)

Austriaco, Nicanor Pier Giorgio

2016-06-01

Patrick Lee and Germain Grisez have argued that the total brain dead patient is still dead because the integrated entity that remains is not even an animal, not only because he is not sentient but also, and more importantly, because he has lost the radical capacity for sentience. In this essay, written from within and as a contribution to the Catholic philosophical tradition, I respond to Lee and Grisez's argument by proposing that the brain dead patient is still sentient because an animal with an intact but severed spinal cord can still perceive and respond to external stimuli. The brain dead patient is an unconscious sentient organism. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Journal of Medicine and Philosophy Inc. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nonsingular cosmology with a scale-invariant spectrum of cosmological perturbations from Lee-Wick theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai Yifu; Qiu Taotao; Brandenberger, Robert; Zhang Xinmin

2009-01-01

We study the cosmology of a Lee-Wick type scalar field theory. First, we consider homogeneous and isotropic background solutions and find that they are nonsingular, leading to cosmological bounces. Next, we analyze the spectrum of cosmological perturbations which result from this model. Unless either the potential of the Lee-Wick theory or the initial conditions are finely tuned, it is impossible to obtain background solutions which have a sufficiently long period of inflation after the bounce. More interestingly, however, we find that in the generic noninflationary bouncing cosmology, perturbations created from quantum vacuum fluctuations in the contracting phase have the correct form to lead to a scale-invariant spectrum of metric inhomogeneities in the expanding phase. Since the background is nonsingular, the evolution of the fluctuations is defined unambiguously through the bounce. We also analyze the evolution of fluctuations which emerge from thermal initial conditions in the contracting phase. The spectrum of gravitational waves stemming from quantum vacuum fluctuations in the contracting phase is also scale-invariant, and the tensor to scalar ratio is not suppressed.

Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

2012-01-01

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hugo Carrão

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Meaningful seasonal prediction of drought conditions is key information for end-users and water managers, particularly in Latin America where crop and livestock production are key for many regional economies. However, there are still not many studies of the feasibility of such a forecasts at continental level in the region. In this study, precipitation predictions from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather (ECMWF seasonal forecast system S4 are combined with observed precipitation data to generate forecasts of the standardized precipitation index (SPI for Latin America, and their skill is evaluated over the hindcast period 1981–2010. The value-added utility in using the ensemble S4 forecast to predict the SPI is identified by comparing the skill of its forecasts with a baseline skill based solely on their climatological characteristics. As expected, skill of the S4-generated SPI forecasts depends on the season, location, and the specific aggregation period considered (the 3- and 6-month SPI were evaluated. Added skill from the S4 for lead times equaling the SPI accumulation periods is primarily present in regions with high intra-annual precipitation variability, and is found mostly for the months at the end of the dry seasons for 3-month SPI, and half-yearly periods for 6-month SPI. The ECMWF forecast system behaves better than the climatology for clustered grid points in the North of South America, the Northeast of Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Mexico. The skillful regions are similar for the SPI3 and -6, but become reduced in extent for the severest SPI categories. Forecasting different magnitudes of meteorological drought intensity on a seasonal time scale still remains a challenge. However, the ECMWF S4 forecasting system does capture the occurrence of drought events for the aforementioned regions and seasons reasonably well. In the near term, the largest advances in the prediction of meteorological drought for Latin

More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

2014-01-01

We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

Fighting with Reality: Considering Mark Johnson's Pragmatic Realism through Bruce Lee's Jeet Kune Do Method

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Alexander David

2015-01-01

This dissertation considers the supportive and complementary relation between Mark Johnson's embodied realism and Bruce Lee's Jeet Kune Do as a philosophical practice. In exploring this relationship, the emphasis on one's embodiment condition and its relationship with metaphor and self-expression are the primary focus. First, this work involves…

Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gang Cheng

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

77 FR 14032 - John H. Chafee Coastal Barrier Resources System; Lee County, FL, and Newport County, RI...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-08

... conduct a comprehensive review of the history of the CBRS unit in question. The Service has a large... by Lee County, and 1 restaurant. The Service's assessment of 2011 aerial imagery estimates that the...

Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in the Mortality of Danish Males Using a New Affluence Index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cairns, Andrew J.G.; Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene; Rosenskjold, Carsten Paysen T.

We investigate and model how the mortality of Danish males aged 55-94 has changed over the period 1985-2012. We divide the population into ten socio-economic subgroups using a new measure of affluence that combines wealth and income reported on the Statistics Denmark national register database...... possible without losing the essential character of the raw data. The model produces bio-demographically reasonable forecasts of mortality rates that preserve the sub-group rankings at all ages. It also satisfies reasonableness criteria related to the term structure of correlations across ages and over time...

World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

Functional renormalization group approach to the Yang-Lee edge singularity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An, X. [Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Chicago,845 W. Taylor St., Chicago, IL 60607 (United States); Mesterházy, D. [Albert Einstein Center for Fundamental Physics, University of Bern,Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern (Switzerland); Stephanov, M.A. [Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Chicago,845 W. Taylor St., Chicago, IL 60607 (United States)

2016-07-08

We determine the scaling properties of the Yang-Lee edge singularity as described by a one-component scalar field theory with imaginary cubic coupling, using the nonperturbative functional renormalization group in 3≤d≤6 Euclidean dimensions. We find very good agreement with high-temperature series data in d=3 dimensions and compare our results to recent estimates of critical exponents obtained with the four-loop ϵ=6−d expansion and the conformal bootstrap. The relevance of operator insertions at the corresponding fixed point of the RG β functions is discussed and we estimate the error associated with O(∂{sup 4}) truncations of the scale-dependent effective action.

Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

2017-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

2014-01-01

A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

Analysis of the membrane fouling on cross-flow ultrafiltration and microfiltration of soy sauce lees; Shoyuhiireden no kurosuforo roka ni okeru fauringu no kaiseki

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Furukakwa, T. [Kikkoman Corporation, Chiba (Japan); Kobayashi, H.; Kokubo, K.; Watanabe, A. [Niigata University, Niigata (Japan). Graduate School of Science and Technology

2000-05-10

Although since the 1980's Japanese soy sauce manufactures have developed cross-flow membrane filtration systems to recover soy sauce from its lees, the mechanisms by which the membrane fouls during filtration have not been theoretically discussed. Calculated flux declines using a theoretical equation developed for cross-flow cake filtration were compared against experimental results involving the filtration of soy sauce lees using polysulfone ultrafiltration and micro filtration membranes. Membrane fouling due to the deposition and intrusion of soy sauce lees was evaluated from the hydraulic resistances of the membrane and the cake layer. Calculated flux declines with time agree with the experimental results. Specific resistance of the cake layer which is an adjustable parameter of the equation, decreases with increasing cross-flow velocity. Hydraulic resistance exhibited by the membranes is independent of feed flow velocity. However, the resistance of the cake layers decreases with increasing cross-flow velocity. This corresponds to the steady-state flux increase. In conclusion, the main cause of fouling in the filtration of soy sauce lees is cake layer formation. By using the cake filtration model for cross-flow, the flux decline with time during the filtration is capable of being predicted. (author)

Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

2017-10-01

The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2017-04-01

Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and

Forecasting in Planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

2004-01-01

This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

Weather Forecasts are for Wimps. Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rayner, S. [James Martin Institute of Science and Civilization, Said Business School, University of Oxford, OX1 1HP (United Kingdom); Lach, D. [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331-4501 (United States); Ingram, H. [School of Social Ecology, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, 92697-7075 (United States)

2005-04-15

Short-term climate forecasting offers the promise of improved hydrologic management strategies. However, water resource managers in the United States have proven reluctant to incorporate them in decision making. While managers usually cite poor reliability of the forecasts as the reason for this, they are seldom able to demonstrate knowledge of the actual performance of forecasts or to consistently articulate the level of reliability that they would require. Analysis of three case studies in California, the Pacific Northwest, and metro Washington DC identifies institutional reasons that appear to lie behind managers reluctance to use the forecasts. These include traditional reliance on large built infrastructure, organizational conservatism and complexity, mismatch of temporal and spatial scales of forecasts to management needs, political disincentives to innovation, and regulatory constraints. The paper concludes that wider acceptance of the forecasts will depend on their being incorporated in existing organizational routines and industrial codes and practices, as well as changes in management incentives to innovation. Finer spatial resolution of forecasts and the regional integration of multi-agency functions would also enhance their usability. The title of this article is taken from an advertising slogan for the Oldsmobile Bravura SUV.

A convection-allowing ensemble forecast based on the breeding growth mode and associated optimization of precipitation forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiang; He, Hongrang; Chen, Chaohui; Miao, Ziqing; Bai, Shigang

2017-10-01

A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode (BGM). Meanwhile, the probability matched mean (PMM) and neighborhood ensemble probability (NEP) methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipitation tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the precipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of precipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could improve precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.

Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

2016-10-01

Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

The AviaDem forecasting model: illustration of a forecasting case at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veldhuis, J.; Lieshout, R.

2010-01-01

The paper describes an aviation market forecasting model which focuses on market forecasts for airports. Most forecasting models in use today assess aviation trends resulting from macroeconomic trends. The model described in this paper has this feature built in, but the added value of this model is

Dynamics and forecast of morbidity and mortality from prostate cancer in St. Petersburg

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. G. Petrova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the characteristics of primary disease incidence, prevalence and mortality from prostate cancer among men's population of St. Petersburg (normal and age-standardized rates; analyzed their dynamics for 20 years; shows the calculated trend of these indicators up to 2020.

Forecasting droughts in West Africa: Operational practice and refined seasonal precipitation forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Bliefernicht, Jan; Siegmund, Jonatan; Seidel, Jochen; Arnold, Hanna; Waongo, Moussa; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

2016-04-01

Precipitation forecasts for the upcoming rainy seasons are one of the most important sources of information for an early warning of droughts and water scarcity in West Africa. The meteorological services in West Africa perform seasonal precipitation forecasts within the framework of PRESAO (the West African climate outlook forum) since the end of the 1990s. Various sources of information and statistical techniques are used by the individual services to provide a harmonized seasonal precipitation forecasts for decision makers in West Africa. In this study, we present a detailed overview of the operational practice in West Africa including a first statistical assessment of the performance of the precipitation forecasts for drought situations for the past 18 years (1998 to 2015). In addition, a long-term hindcasts (1982 to 2009) and a semi-operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 using statistical and/or dynamical downscaling are performed to refine the precipitation forecasts from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), a global ensemble prediction system. This information is post-processed to provide user-oriented precipitation indices such as the onset of the rainy season for supporting water and land use management for rain-fed agriculture. The evaluation of the individual techniques is performed focusing on water-scarce regions of the Volta basin in Burkina Faso and Ghana. The forecasts of the individual techniques are compared to state-of-the-art global observed precipitation products and a novel precipitation database based on long-term daily rain-gage measurements provided by the national meteorological services. The statistical assessment of the PRESAO forecasts indicates skillful seasonal precipitation forecasts for many locations in the Volta basin, particularly for years with water deficits. The operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 illustrates the high potential of a physically-based downscaling for this region but still shows

Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joop de Beer

2012-10-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. OBJECTIVE This article demonstrates how TOPALS can be used for both smoothing and projecting age-specific mortality for 26 European countries and compares the results of TOPALS with those of other smoothing and projection methods. METHODS TOPALS uses a linear spline to describe the ratios between the age-specific death probabilities of a given country and a standard age schedule. For smoothing purposes I use the average of death probabilities over 15 Western European countries as standard, whereas for projection purposes I use an age schedule of 'best practice' mortality. A partial adjustment model projects how quickly the death probabilities move in the direction of the best-practice level of mortality. RESULTS On average, TOPALS performs better than the Heligman-Pollard model and the Brass relational method in smoothing mortality age schedules. TOPALS can produce projections that are similar to those of the Lee-Carter method, but can easily be used to produce alternative scenarios as well. This article presents three projections of life expectancy at birth for the year 2060 for 26 European countries. The Baseline scenario assumes a continuation of the past trend in each country, the Convergence scenario assumes that there is a common trend across European countries, and the Acceleration scenario assumes that the future decline of death probabilities will exceed that in the past. The Baseline scenario projects that average European life expectancy at birth will increase to 80 years for men and 87 years for women in 2060, whereas the Acceleration scenario projects an increase to 90 and 93 years respectively. CONCLUSIONS TOPALS is a useful new tool for demographers for both smoothing age schedules and making scenarios.

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

Science.gov (United States)

Amstrup, Steven C.; Caswell, Hal; DeWeaver, Eric; Stirling, Ian; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Hunter, Christine M.

2009-01-01

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

OpenAIRE

McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

2005-01-01

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: the skill-persistence rule

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Y.; Rong, X.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the factors that impact the forecast skill for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill of sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further examined using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but can be distorted by the sampling error and non-AR1 processes.

Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

2015-01-01

While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service....

Wind and load forecast error model for multiple geographically distributed forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes-Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

2010-07-01

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To simulate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations. auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to produce forecast error time-domain curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and some experimental results obtained by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics. (orig.)

25 years of time series forecasting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

2006-01-01

We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafie-khah, M.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. → The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. → PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. → One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. → The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shafie-khah, M., E-mail: miadreza@gmail.co [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Moghaddam, M. Parsa, E-mail: parsa@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K., E-mail: aleslam@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2011-05-15

Research highlights: {yields} A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. {yields} The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. {yields} PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. {yields} One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. {yields} The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

Long-term forecasting and comparison of mortality in the Evaluation of the Xience Everolimus Eluting Stent vs. Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization (EXCEL) trial: prospective validation of the SYNTAX Score II.

Science.gov (United States)

Campos, Carlos M; van Klaveren, David; Farooq, Vasim; Simonton, Charles A; Kappetein, Arie-Pieter; Sabik, Joseph F; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Stone, Gregg W; Serruys, Patrick W

2015-05-21

To prospectively validate the SYNTAX Score II and forecast the outcomes of the randomized Evaluation of the Xience Everolimus-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization (EXCEL) Trial. Evaluation of the Xience Everolimus Eluting Stent vs. Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization is a prospective, randomized multicenter trial designed to establish the efficacy and safety of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the everolimus-eluting stent compared with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery in subjects with unprotected left-main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease and low-intermediate anatomical SYNTAX scores (EXCEL, the SYNTAX Score II was prospectively applied to predict 4-year mortality in the CABG and PCI arms. The 95% prediction intervals (PIs) for mortality were computed using simulation with bootstrap resampling (10 000 times). For the entire study cohort, the 4-year predicted mortalities were 8.5 and 10.5% in the PCI and CABG arms, respectively [odds ratios (OR) 0.79; 95% PI 0.43-1.50). In subjects with low (≤22) anatomical SYNTAX scores, the predicted OR was 0.69 (95% PI 0.34-1.45); in intermediate anatomical SYNTAX scores (23-32), the predicted OR was 0.93 (95% PI 0.53-1.62). Based on 4-year mortality predictions in EXCEL, clinical characteristics shifted long-term mortality predictions either in favour of PCI (older age, male gender and COPD) or CABG (younger age, lower creatinine clearance, female gender, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction). The SYNTAX Score II indicates at least an equipoise for long-term mortality between CABG and PCI in subjects with ULMCA disease up to an intermediate anatomical complexity. Both anatomical and clinical characteristics had a clear impact on long-term mortality predictions and decision making between CABG and PCI. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The

Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Andrew J. L.

2015-04-01

This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

Time-lapse analysis of methane quantity in Mary Lee group of coal seams using filter-based multiple-point geostatistical simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Karacan, C. Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A.

2013-01-01

Coal seam degasification and its success are important for controlling methane, and thus for the health and safety of coal miners. During the course of degasification, properties of coal seams change. Thus, the changes in coal reservoir conditions and in-place gas content as well as methane emission potential into mines should be evaluated by examining time-dependent changes and the presence of major heterogeneities and geological discontinuities in the field. In this work, time-lapsed reservoir and fluid storage properties of the New Castle coal seam, Mary Lee/Blue Creek seam, and Jagger seam of Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, were determined from gas and water production history matching and production forecasting of vertical degasification wellbores. These properties were combined with isotherm and other important data to compute gas-in-place (GIP) and its change with time at borehole locations. Time-lapsed training images (TIs) of GIP and GIP difference corresponding to each coal and date were generated by using these point-wise data and Voronoi decomposition on the TI grid, which included faults as discontinuities for expansion of Voronoi regions. Filter-based multiple-point geostatistical simulations, which were preferred in this study due to anisotropies and discontinuities in the area, were used to predict time-lapsed GIP distributions within the study area. Performed simulations were used for mapping spatial time-lapsed methane quantities as well as their uncertainties within the study area.

Distribution of non-LEE-encoded type 3 secretion system dependent effectors in enteropathogenic Escherichia coli

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fábia A. Salvador

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC are important human gastroenteritis agents. The prevalence of six non-LEE genes encoding type 3 translocated effectors was investigated. The nleC, cif and nleB genes were more prevalent in typical than in atypical EPEC, although a higher diversity of genes combinations was observed in atypical EPEC.

Generation of hyperchaos from the Chen-Lee system via sinusoidal perturbation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tam, L.M.; Chen, J.H.; Chen, H.K.; Wai Meng Si Tou

2008-01-01

A system with more than one positive Lyapunov exponent can be classified as a hyperchaotic system. In this study, a sinusoidal perturbation was designed for generating hyperchaos from the Chen-Lee chaotic system. The hyperchaos was identified by the existence of two positive Lyapunov exponents and bifurcation diagrams. The system is hyperchaotic in several different regions of the parameters c, ε, and ω. It was found that this method not only can enhance or suppress chaotic behavior, but also induces chaos in non-chaotic parameter ranges. In addition, two interesting dynamical behaviors, Hopf bifurcation and intermittency, were also found in this study

Generation of hyperchaos from the Chen-Lee system via sinusoidal perturbation