WorldWideScience

Sample records for learning curve period

  1. Learning Curve? Which One?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Prochno

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Learning curves have been studied for a long time. These studies provided strong support to the hypothesis that, as organizations produce more of a product, unit costs of production decrease at a decreasing rate (see Argote, 1999 for a comprehensive review of learning curve studies. But the organizational mechanisms that lead to these results are still underexplored. We know some drivers of learning curves (ADLER; CLARK, 1991; LAPRE et al., 2000, but we still lack a more detailed view of the organizational processes behind those curves. Through an ethnographic study, I bring a comprehensive account of the first year of operations of a new automotive plant, describing what was taking place on in the assembly area during the most relevant shifts of the learning curve. The emphasis is then on how learning occurs in that setting. My analysis suggests that the overall learning curve is in fact the result of an integration process that puts together several individual ongoing learning curves in different areas throughout the organization. In the end, I propose a model to understand the evolution of these learning processes and their supporting organizational mechanisms.

  2. Learning curves in health professions education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusic, Martin V; Boutis, Kathy; Hatala, Rose; Cook, David A

    2015-08-01

    Learning curves, which graphically show the relationship between learning effort and achievement, are common in published education research but are not often used in day-to-day educational activities. The purpose of this article is to describe the generation and analysis of learning curves and their applicability to health professions education. The authors argue that the time is right for a closer look at using learning curves-given their desirable properties-to inform both self-directed instruction by individuals and education management by instructors.A typical learning curve is made up of a measure of learning (y-axis), a measure of effort (x-axis), and a mathematical linking function. At the individual level, learning curves make manifest a single person's progress towards competence including his/her rate of learning, the inflection point where learning becomes more effortful, and the remaining distance to mastery attainment. At the group level, overlaid learning curves show the full variation of a group of learners' paths through a given learning domain. Specifically, they make overt the difference between time-based and competency-based approaches to instruction. Additionally, instructors can use learning curve information to more accurately target educational resources to those who most require them.The learning curve approach requires a fine-grained collection of data that will not be possible in all educational settings; however, the increased use of an assessment paradigm that explicitly includes effort and its link to individual achievement could result in increased learner engagement and more effective instructional design.

  3. Management of the learning curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Peter-Christian; Slepniov, Dmitrij

    2016-01-01

    Purpose – This paper focuses on the management of the learning curve in overseas capacity expansions. The purpose of this paper is to unravel the direct as well as indirect influences on the learning curve and to advance the understanding of how these affect its management. Design...... the dimensions of the learning process involved in a capacity expansion project and identified the direct and indirect labour influences on the production learning curve. On this basis, the study proposes solutions to managing learning curves in overseas capacity expansions. Furthermore, the paper concludes...... with measures that have the potential to significantly reduce the non-value-added time when establishing new capacities overseas. Originality/value – The paper uses a longitudinal in-depth case study of a Danish wind turbine manufacturer and goes beyond a simplistic treatment of the lead time and learning...

  4. Investigation of learning and experience curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krawiec, F.; Thornton, J.; Edesess, M.

    1980-04-01

    The applicability of learning and experience curves for predicting future costs of solar technologies is assessed, and the major test case is the production economics of heliostats. Alternative methods for estimating cost reductions in systems manufacture are discussed, and procedures for using learning and experience curves to predict costs are outlined. Because adequate production data often do not exist, production histories of analogous products/processes are analyzed and learning and aggregated cost curves for these surrogates estimated. If the surrogate learning curves apply, they can be used to estimate solar technology costs. The steps involved in generating these cost estimates are given. Second-generation glass-steel and inflated-bubble heliostat design concepts, developed by MDAC and GE, respectively, are described; a costing scenario for 25,000 units/yr is detailed; surrogates for cost analysis are chosen; learning and aggregate cost curves are estimated; and aggregate cost curves for the GE and MDAC designs are estimated. However, an approach that combines a neoclassical production function with a learning-by-doing hypothesis is needed to yield a cost relation compatible with the historical learning curve and the traditional cost function of economic theory.

  5. Mentorship, learning curves, and balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Meryl S; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Quintessenza, James A; Chai, Paul J; Lindberg, Harald L; Dickey, Jamie; Ungerleider, Ross M

    2007-09-01

    Professionals working in the arena of health care face a variety of challenges as their careers evolve and develop. In this review, we analyze the role of mentorship, learning curves, and balance in overcoming challenges that all such professionals are likely to encounter. These challenges can exist both in professional and personal life. As any professional involved in health care matures, complex professional skills must be mastered, and new professional skills must be acquired. These skills are both technical and judgmental. In most circumstances, these skills must be learned. In 2007, despite the continued need for obtaining new knowledge and learning new skills, the professional and public tolerance for a "learning curve" is much less than in previous decades. Mentorship is the key to success in these endeavours. The success of mentorship is two-sided, with responsibilities for both the mentor and the mentee. The benefits of this relationship must be bidirectional. It is the responsibility of both the student and the mentor to assure this bidirectional exchange of benefit. This relationship requires time, patience, dedication, and to some degree selflessness. This mentorship will ultimately be the best tool for mastering complex professional skills and maturing through various learning curves. Professional mentorship also requires that mentors identify and explicitly teach their mentees the relational skills and abilities inherent in learning the management of the triad of self, relationships with others, and professional responsibilities.Up to two decades ago, a learning curve was tolerated, and even expected, while professionals involved in healthcare developed the techniques that allowed for the treatment of previously untreatable diseases. Outcomes have now improved to the point that this type of learning curve is no longer acceptable to the public. Still, professionals must learn to perform and develop independence and confidence. The responsibility to

  6. Technological change in energy systems. Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Haoran; Koehler, Jonathan

    2007-01-01

    Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R and D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R and D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does. (author)

  7. Learning curve for intracranial angioplasty and stenting in single center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Qiankun; Li, Yongkun; Xu, Gelin; Sun, Wen; Xiong, Yunyun; Sun, Wenshan; Bao, Yuanfei; Huang, Xianjun; Zhang, Yao; Zhou, Lulu; Zhu, Wusheng; Liu, Xinfeng

    2014-01-01

    To identify the specific caseload to overcome learning curve effect based on data from consecutive patients treated with Intracranial Angioplasty and Stenting (IAS) in our center. The Stenting and Aggressive Medical Management for Preventing Recurrent Stroke and Intracranial Stenosis trial was prematurely terminated owing to the high rate of periprocedural complications in the endovascular arm. To date, there are no data available for determining the essential caseload sufficient to overcome the learning effect and perform IAS with an acceptable level of complications. Between March 2004 and May 2012, 188 consecutive patients with 194 lesions who underwent IAS were analyzed retrospectively. The outcome variables used to assess the learning curve were periprocedural complications (included transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, vessel rupture, cerebral hyperperfusion syndrome, and vessel perforation). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to illustrate the existence of learning curve effect on IAS. A risk-adjusted cumulative sum chart was performed to identify the specific caseload to overcome learning curve effect. The overall rate of 30-days periprocedural complications was 12.4% (24/194). After adjusting for case-mix, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that operator experience was an independent predictor for periprocedural complications. The learning curve of IAS to overcome complications in a risk-adjusted manner was 21 cases. Operator's level of experience significantly affected the outcome of IAS. Moreover, we observed that the amount of experience sufficient for performing IAS in our center was 21 cases. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Learning curve for radical retropubic prostatectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando J. A. Saito

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: The learning curve is a period in which the surgical procedure is performed with difficulty and slowness, leading to a higher risk of complications and reduced effectiveness due the surgeon's inexperience. We sought to analyze the residents' learning curve for open radical prostatectomy (RP in a training program. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective study from June 2006 to January 2008 in the academic environment of the University of São Paulo. Five residents operated on 184 patients during a four-month rotation in the urologic oncology division, mentored by the same physician assistants. We performed sequential analyses according to the number of surgeries, as follows: = 10, 11 to 19, 20 to 28, and = 29. RESULTS: The residents performed an average of 37 RP each. The average psa was 9.3 ng/mL and clinical stage T1c in 71% of the patients. The pathological stage was pT2 (73%, pT3 (23%, pT4 (4%, and 46% of the patients had a Gleason score 7 or higher. In all surgeries, the average operative time and estimated blood loss was 140 minutes and 488 mL. Overall, 7.2% of patients required blood transfusion, and 23% had positive surgical margins. CONCLUSION: During the initial RP learning curve, we found a significant reduction in the operative time; blood transfusion during the procedures and positive surgical margin rate were stable in our series.

  9. Colorectal Stenting in Malignant Large Bowel Obstruction: The Learning Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Self-expanding metal stents (SEMSs are increasingly used for the palliation of metastatic colorectal cancer and as a bridge to surgery for obstructing tumours. This case series analyses the learning curve and changes in practice of colorectal stenting over a three year period. Methods. A study of 40 patients who underwent placement of SEMS for the management of colorectal cancer. Patients spanned the learning curve of a single surgeon endoscopist. Results. Technical success rates increased from 82% initially, using an average of 1.7 stents per procedure, to a 94% success rate where all patients were stented using a single stent. There has been a change in practice from elective palliative stenting toward emergency preoperative stenting. Conclusion. There is a steep learning curve for the use of SEMS in the management of malignant colorectal bowel obstruction. We suggest that at least 20 cases are required for an operator to be considered experienced.

  10. Stokes-Darcy coupling for periodically curved interfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dobberschütz, Sören

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the boundary condition between a free fluid and a porous medium, where the interface between the two is given as a periodically curved structure. Using a coordinate transformation, we can employ methods of periodic homogenisation to derive effective boundary conditions for the tran...... be interpreted as a generalised law of Beavers and Joseph for curved interfaces....

  11. Learning curves for solid oxide fuel cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivera-Tinoco, Rodrigo; Schoots, Koen; Zwaan, Bob van der

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We present learning curves for fuel cells based on empirical data. ► We disentangle different cost reduction mechanisms for SOFCs. ► We distinguish between learning-by-doing, R and D, economies-of-scale and automation. - Abstract: In this article we present learning curves for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). With data from fuel cell manufacturers we derive a detailed breakdown of their production costs. We develop a bottom-up model that allows for determining overall SOFC manufacturing costs with their respective cost components, among which material, energy, labor and capital charges. The results obtained from our model prove to deviate by at most 13% from total cost figures quoted in the literature. For the R and D stage of development and diffusion, we find local learning rates between 13% and 17% and we demonstrate that the corresponding cost reductions result essentially from learning-by-searching effects. When considering periods in time that focus on the pilot and early commercial production stages, we find regional learning rates of 27% and 1%, respectively, which we assume derive mainly from genuine learning phenomena. These figures turnout significantly higher, approximately 44% and 12% respectively, if also effects of economies-of-scale and automation are included. When combining all production stages we obtain lr = 35%, which represents a mix of cost reduction phenomena. This high learning rate value and the potential to scale up production suggest that continued efforts in the development of SOFC manufacturing processes, as well as deployment and use of SOFCs, may lead to substantial further cost reductions.

  12. Learning curves in energy planning models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, L; Kypreos, S [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    This study describes the endogenous representation of investment cost learning curves into the MARKAL energy planning model. A piece-wise representation of the learning curves is implemented using Mixed Integer Programming. The approach is briefly described and some results are presented. (author) 3 figs., 5 refs.

  13. EXPLORING THE VARIABLE SKY WITH LINEAR. III. CLASSIFICATION OF PERIODIC LIGHT CURVES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palaversa, Lovro; Eyer, Laurent; Rimoldini, Lorenzo [Observatoire Astronomique de l' Université de Genève, 51 chemin des Maillettes, CH-1290 Sauverny (Switzerland); Ivezić, Željko; Loebman, Sarah; Hunt-Walker, Nicholas; VanderPlas, Jacob; Westman, David; Becker, Andrew C. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, P.O. Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195-1580 (United States); Ruždjak, Domagoj; Sudar, Davor; Božić, Hrvoje [Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, Kačićeva 26, 10000 Zagreb (Croatia); Galin, Mario [Faculty of Geodesy, Kačićeva 26, 10000 Zagreb (Croatia); Kroflin, Andrea; Mesarić, Martina; Munk, Petra; Vrbanec, Dijana [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Bijenička cesta 32, 10000 Zagreb (Croatia); Sesar, Branimir [Division of Physics, Mathematics, and Astronomy, Caltech, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Stuart, J. Scott [Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 244 Wood Street, Lexington, MA 02420-9108 (United States); Srdoč, Gregor, E-mail: lovro.palaversa@unige.ch [Saršoni 90, 51216 Viškovo (Croatia); and others

    2013-10-01

    We describe the construction of a highly reliable sample of ∼7000 optically faint periodic variable stars with light curves obtained by the asteroid survey LINEAR across 10,000 deg{sup 2} of the northern sky. The majority of these variables have not been cataloged yet. The sample flux limit is several magnitudes fainter than most other wide-angle surveys; the photometric errors range from ∼0.03 mag at r = 15 to ∼0.20 mag at r = 18. Light curves include on average 250 data points, collected over about a decade. Using Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) based photometric recalibration of the LINEAR data for about 25 million objects, we selected ∼200,000 most probable candidate variables with r < 17 and visually confirmed and classified ∼7000 periodic variables using phased light curves. The reliability and uniformity of visual classification across eight human classifiers was calibrated and tested using a catalog of variable stars from the SDSS Stripe 82 region and verified using an unsupervised machine learning approach. The resulting sample of periodic LINEAR variables is dominated by 3900 RR Lyrae stars and 2700 eclipsing binary stars of all subtypes and includes small fractions of relatively rare populations such as asymptotic giant branch stars and SX Phoenicis stars. We discuss the distribution of these mostly uncataloged variables in various diagrams constructed with optical-to-infrared SDSS, Two Micron All Sky Survey, and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer photometry, and with LINEAR light-curve features. We find that the combination of light-curve features and colors enables classification schemes much more powerful than when colors or light curves are each used separately. An interesting side result is a robust and precise quantitative description of a strong correlation between the light-curve period and color/spectral type for close and contact eclipsing binary stars (β Lyrae and W UMa): as the color-based spectral type varies from K4 to F5, the

  14. Unraveling the photovoltaic technology learning curve by incorporation of input price changes and scale effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.F.; van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.; Alsema, E.A.

    2011-01-01

    In a large number of energy models, the use of learning curves for estimating technological improvements has become popular. This is based on the assumption that technological development can be monitored by following cost development as a function of market size. However, recent data show that in some stages of photovoltaic technology (PV) production, the market price of PV modules stabilizes even though the cumulative capacity increases. This implies that no technological improvement takes place in these periods: the cost predicted by the learning curve in the PV study is lower than the market one. We propose that this bias results from ignoring the effects of input prices and scale effects, and that incorporating the input prices and scale effects into the learning curve theory is an important issue in making cost predictions more reliable. In this paper, a methodology is described to incorporate the scale and input-prices effect as the additional variables into the one factor learning curve, which leads to the definition of the multi-factor learning curve. This multi-factor learning curve is not only derived from economic theories, but also supported by an empirical study. The results clearly show that input prices and scale effects are to be included, and that, although market prices are stabilizing, learning is still taking place. (author)

  15. Learning curve tool applications in DOE materials management activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipinski, A.

    1994-01-01

    This paper will examine the application of learning curve theory, an economic theory that quantifies cost savings over time in a labor intensive process. Learning curve theory has been traditionally applied to a production process. This paper examines the application of learning curve theory in cost estimating of waste characterization in storage at a DOE facility

  16. PERIOD ESTIMATION FOR SPARSELY SAMPLED QUASI-PERIODIC LIGHT CURVES APPLIED TO MIRAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Shiyuan; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Long, James [Department of Statistics, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States); Yuan, Wenlong; Macri, Lucas M., E-mail: lmacri@tamu.edu [George P. and Cynthia W. Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States)

    2016-12-01

    We develop a nonlinear semi-parametric Gaussian process model to estimate periods of Miras with sparsely sampled light curves. The model uses a sinusoidal basis for the periodic variation and a Gaussian process for the stochastic changes. We use maximum likelihood to estimate the period and the parameters of the Gaussian process, while integrating out the effects of other nuisance parameters in the model with respect to a suitable prior distribution obtained from earlier studies. Since the likelihood is highly multimodal for period, we implement a hybrid method that applies the quasi-Newton algorithm for Gaussian process parameters and search the period/frequency parameter space over a dense grid. A large-scale, high-fidelity simulation is conducted to mimic the sampling quality of Mira light curves obtained by the M33 Synoptic Stellar Survey. The simulated data set is publicly available and can serve as a testbed for future evaluation of different period estimation methods. The semi-parametric model outperforms an existing algorithm on this simulated test data set as measured by period recovery rate and quality of the resulting period–luminosity relations.

  17. Analysis of the learning curve for peroral endoscopic myotomy for esophageal achalasia: Single-center, two-operator experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Houning; Zhao, Ningning; Zheng, Zhongqing; Wang, Tao; Yang, Fang; Jiang, Xihui; Lin, Lin; Sun, Chao; Wang, Bangmao

    2017-05-01

    Peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) has emerged as an advanced technique for the treatment of achalasia, and defining the learning curve is mandatory. From August 2011 to June 2014, two operators in our institution (A&B) carried out POEM on 35 and 33 consecutive patients, respectively. Moving average and cumulative sum (CUSUM) methods were used to analyze the POEM learning curve for corrected operative time (cOT), referring to duration of per centimeter myotomy. Additionally, perioperative outcomes were compared among distinct learning curve phases. Using the moving average method, cOT reached a plateau at the 29th case and at the 24th case for operators A and B, respectively. CUSUM analysis identified three phases: initial learning period (Phase 1), efficiency period (Phase 2) and mastery period (Phase 3). The relatively smooth state in the CUSUM graph occurred at the 26th case and at the 24th case for operators A and B, respectively. Mean cOT of distinct phases for operator A were 8.32, 5.20 and 3.97 min, whereas they were 5.99, 3.06 and 3.75 min for operator B, respectively. Eckardt score and lower esophageal sphincter pressure significantly decreased during the 1-year follow-up period. Data were comparable regarding patient characteristics and perioperative outcomes. This single-center study demonstrated that expert endoscopists with experience in esophageal endoscopic submucosal dissection reached a plateau in learning of POEM after approximately 25 cases. © 2016 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society.

  18. Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: A component-learning hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferioli, F.; Schoots, K.; Zwaan, B.C.C. van der

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the use of learning curves for the description of observed cost reductions for a variety of energy technologies. Starting point of our analysis is the representation of energy processes and technologies as the sum of different components. While we recognize that in many cases 'learning-by-doing' may improve the overall costs or efficiency of a technology, we argue that so far insufficient attention has been devoted to study the effects of single component improvements that together may explain an aggregated form of learning. Indeed, for an entire technology the phenomenon of learning-by-doing may well result from learning of one or a few individual components only. We analyze under what conditions it is possible to combine learning curves for single components to derive one comprehensive learning curve for the total product. The possibility that for certain technologies some components (e.g., the primary natural resources that serve as essential input) do not exhibit cost improvements might account for the apparent time dependence of learning rates reported in several studies (the learning rate might also change considerably over time depending on the data set considered, a crucial issue to be aware of when one uses the learning curve methodology). Such an explanation may have important consequences for the extent to which learning curves can be extrapolated into the future. This argumentation suggests that cost reductions may not continue indefinitely and that well-behaved learning curves do not necessarily exist for every product or technology. In addition, even for diffusing and maturing technologies that display clear learning effects, market and resource constraints can eventually significantly reduce the scope for further improvements in their fabrication or use. It appears likely that some technologies, such as wind turbines and photovoltaic cells, are significantly more amenable than others to industry-wide learning. For such

  19. Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Maria Matthaiou; Efthymia Chrysanthidou

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the forecasting ability of the yield curve in terms of the U.S. real GDP cycle. More specifically, within a Machine Learning (ML) framework, we use data from a variety of short (treasury bills) and long term interest rates (bonds) for the period from 1976:Q3 to 2011:Q4 in conjunction with the real GDP for the same period, to create a model that can successfully forecast output fluctuations (inflation and output gaps) around its long-run trend. We focus our attent...

  20. Shaping the learning curve: epigenetic dynamics in neural plasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohar Ziv Bronfman

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A key characteristic of learning and neural plasticity is state-dependent acquisition dynamics reflected by the non-linear learning curve that links increase in learning with practice. Here we propose that the manner by which epigenetic states of individual cells change during learning contributes to the shape of the neural and behavioral learning curve. We base our suggestion on recent studies showing that epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation, histone acetylation and RNA-mediated gene regulation are intimately involved in the establishment and maintenance of long-term neural plasticity, reflecting specific learning-histories and influencing future learning. Our model, which is the first to suggest a dynamic molecular account of the shape of the learning curve, leads to several testable predictions regarding the link between epigenetic dynamics at the promoter, gene-network and neural-network levels. This perspective opens up new avenues for therapeutic interventions in neurological pathologies.

  1. Implementation Learning and Forgetting Curve to Scheduling in Garment Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhamad Badri, Huda; Deros, Baba Md; Syahri, M.; Saleh, Chairul; Fitria, Aninda

    2016-02-01

    The learning curve shows the relationship between time and the cumulative number of units produced which using the mathematical description on the performance of workers in performing repetitive works. The problems of this study is level differences in the labors performance before and after the break which affects the company's production scheduling. The study was conducted in the garment industry, which the aims is to predict the company production scheduling using the learning curve and forgetting curve. By implementing the learning curve and forgetting curve, this paper contributes in improving the labors performance that is in line with the increase in maximum output 3 hours productive before the break are 15 unit product with learning curve percentage in the company is 93.24%. Meanwhile, the forgetting curve improving maximum output 3 hours productive after the break are 11 unit product with the percentage of forgetting curve in the company is 92.96%. Then, the obtained 26 units product on the productive hours one working day is used as the basic for production scheduling.

  2. Developments in Interpreting Learning Curves and Applications to Energy Technology Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.; Wene, C.O.

    2011-01-01

    The book 'Learning Curves: Theory, Models, and Applications' first draws a learning map that shows where learning is involved within organizations, then examines how it can be sustained, perfected, and accelerated. The book reviews empirical findings in the literature in terms of different sources for learning and partial assessments of the steps that make up the actual learning process inside the learning curve. Chapter 23 on 'Developments in Interpreting Learning Curves and Applications to Energy Technology Policy' is written by Bob van der Zwaan and Clas-Otto Wene. In this chapter they provide some interpretations of experience and learning curves starting from three different theoretical platforms. These interpretations are aimed at explaining learning rates for different energy technologies. The ultimate purpose is to find the role that experience and learning curves can legitimately play in designing efficient government deployment programs and in analyzing the implications of different energy scenarios. The 'Component Learning' section summarizes recent work by the authors that focuses on the disaggregation of technologies in their respective components and argues that traditional learning for overall technology should perhaps be replaced by a phenomenology that recognizes learning for individual components. The 'Learning and Time' section presents an approach that departs more strongly from the conventional learning curve methodology, by suggesting that exponential growth and progress may be the deeper underlying processes behind observed learning-by-doing. Contrary to this view, the cybernetic approach presented in the 'Cybernetic Approach' section sees learning curves as expressing a fundamental property of organizations in competitive markets and applies the findings from second order cybernetics to calculate the learning rates for operationally closed systems. All three interpretations find empirical support. The 'Conclusions' section summarizes the

  3. Developments in Interpreting Learning Curves and Applications to Energy Technology Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van der Zwaan, B.C.C. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands, ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Wene, C.O. [Wenergy, Lund (Sweden)

    2011-06-15

    The book 'Learning Curves: Theory, Models, and Applications' first draws a learning map that shows where learning is involved within organizations, then examines how it can be sustained, perfected, and accelerated. The book reviews empirical findings in the literature in terms of different sources for learning and partial assessments of the steps that make up the actual learning process inside the learning curve. Chapter 23 on 'Developments in Interpreting Learning Curves and Applications to Energy Technology Policy' is written by Bob van der Zwaan and Clas-Otto Wene. In this chapter they provide some interpretations of experience and learning curves starting from three different theoretical platforms. These interpretations are aimed at explaining learning rates for different energy technologies. The ultimate purpose is to find the role that experience and learning curves can legitimately play in designing efficient government deployment programs and in analyzing the implications of different energy scenarios. The 'Component Learning' section summarizes recent work by the authors that focuses on the disaggregation of technologies in their respective components and argues that traditional learning for overall technology should perhaps be replaced by a phenomenology that recognizes learning for individual components. The 'Learning and Time' section presents an approach that departs more strongly from the conventional learning curve methodology, by suggesting that exponential growth and progress may be the deeper underlying processes behind observed learning-by-doing. Contrary to this view, the cybernetic approach presented in the 'Cybernetic Approach' section sees learning curves as expressing a fundamental property of organizations in competitive markets and applies the findings from second order cybernetics to calculate the learning rates for operationally closed systems. All three interpretations find empirical

  4. An appraisal of the learning curve in robotic general surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernar, Luise I M; Robertson, Faith C; Tavakkoli, Ali; Sheu, Eric G; Brooks, David C; Smink, Douglas S

    2017-11-01

    Robotic-assisted surgery is used with increasing frequency in general surgery for a variety of applications. In spite of this increase in usage, the learning curve is not yet defined. This study reviews the literature on the learning curve in robotic general surgery to inform adopters of the technology. PubMed and EMBASE searches yielded 3690 abstracts published between July 1986 and March 2016. The abstracts were evaluated based on the following inclusion criteria: written in English, reporting original work, focus on general surgery operations, and with explicit statistical methods. Twenty-six full-length articles were included in final analysis. The articles described the learning curves in colorectal (9 articles, 35%), foregut/bariatric (8, 31%), biliary (5, 19%), and solid organ (4, 15%) surgery. Eighteen of 26 (69%) articles report single-surgeon experiences. Time was used as a measure of the learning curve in all studies (100%); outcomes were examined in 10 (38%). In 12 studies (46%), the authors identified three phases of the learning curve. Numbers of cases needed to achieve plateau performance were wide-ranging but overlapping for different kinds of operations: 19-128 cases for colorectal, 8-95 for foregut/bariatric, 20-48 for biliary, and 10-80 for solid organ surgery. Although robotic surgery is increasingly utilized in general surgery, the literature provides few guidelines on the learning curve for adoption. In this heterogeneous sample of reviewed articles, the number of cases needed to achieve plateau performance varies by case type and the learning curve may have multiple phases as surgeons add more complex cases to their case mix with growing experience. Time is the most common determinant for the learning curve. The literature lacks a uniform assessment of outcomes and complications, which would arguably reflect expertise in a more meaningful way than time to perform the operation alone.

  5. Microvascular Anastomosis: Proposition of a Learning Curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtari, Pooneh; Tayebi Meybodi, Ali; Benet, Arnau; Lawton, Michael T

    2018-04-14

    Learning to perform a microvascular anastomosis is one of the most difficult tasks in cerebrovascular surgery. Previous studies offer little regarding the optimal protocols to maximize learning efficiency. This failure stems mainly from lack of knowledge about the learning curve of this task. To delineate this learning curve and provide information about its various features including acquisition, improvement, consistency, stability, and recall. Five neurosurgeons with an average surgical experience history of 5 yr and without any experience in bypass surgery performed microscopic anastomosis on progressively smaller-caliber silastic tubes (Biomet, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida) during 24 consecutive sessions. After a 1-, 2-, and 8-wk retention interval, they performed recall test on 0.7-mm silastic tubes. The anastomoses were rated based on anastomosis patency and presence of any leaks. Improvement rate was faster during initial sessions compared to the final practice sessions. Performance decline was observed in the first session of working on a smaller-caliber tube. However, this rapidly improved during the following sessions of practice. Temporary plateaus were seen in certain segments of the curve. The retention interval between the acquisition and recall phase did not cause a regression to the prepractice performance level. Learning the fine motor task of microvascular anastomosis adapts to the basic rules of learning such as the "power law of practice." Our results also support the improvement of performance during consecutive sessions of practice. The objective evidence provided may help in developing optimized learning protocols for microvascular anastomosis.

  6. Carbon Intensities of Economies from the Perspective of Learning Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Pacini

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available While some countries have achieved considerable development, many others still lack accessto the goods and services considered standard in the modern society. As CO2 emissions and development are often correlated, this paper employs the theoretical background of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC and the learning curves toolkit to analyze how carbon intensities have changed as countries move towards higher development (and cumulative wealth levels. The EKC concept is then tested with the methodology of learning curves for the period between 1971 and 2010, so as to capture a dynamic picture of emissions trends and development. Results of both analyses reveal that empirical data fails to provide direct evidence of an EKC for emissions and development. The data does show, however, an interesting pattern in the dispersion of emissions levels for countries within the same HDI categories. While data does not show that countries grow more polluting during intermediary development stages, it does provide evidence that countries become more heterogeneous in their emission intensities as they develop, later re-converging to lower emission intensities at higher HDI levels. Learning rates also indicate heterogeneity among developing countries and relative convergence among developed countries. Given the heterogeneity of development paths among countries, the experiences of those which are managing to develop at low carbon intensities can prove valuable examples for ongoing efforts in climate change mitigation, especially in the developing world.

  7. Learning curve for laparoscopic Heller myotomy and Dor fundoplication for achalasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yano, Fumiaki; Omura, Nobuo; Tsuboi, Kazuto; Hoshino, Masato; Yamamoto, Seryung; Akimoto, Shunsuke; Masuda, Takahiro; Kashiwagi, Hideyuki; Yanaga, Katsuhiko

    2017-01-01

    Although laparoscopic Heller myotomy and Dor fundoplication (LHD) is widely performed to address achalasia, little is known about the learning curve for this technique. We assessed the learning curve for performing LHD. Of the 514 cases with LHD performed between August 1994 and March 2016, the surgical outcomes of 463 cases were evaluated after excluding 50 cases with reduced port surgery and one case with the simultaneous performance of laparoscopic distal partial gastrectomy. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the cut-off value for the number of surgical experiences necessary to become proficient with LHD, which was defined as the completion of the learning curve. We defined the completion of the learning curve when the following 3 conditions were satisfied. 1) The operation time was less than 165 minutes. 2) There was no blood loss. 3) There was no intraoperative complication. In order to establish the appropriate number of surgical experiences required to complete the learning curve, the cut-off value was evaluated by using a ROC curve (AUC 0.717, p < 0.001). Finally, we identified the cut-off value as 16 surgical cases (sensitivity 0.706, specificity 0.646). Learning curve seems to complete after performing 16 cases.

  8. Learning curve for laparoscopic Heller myotomy and Dor fundoplication for achalasia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumiaki Yano

    Full Text Available Although laparoscopic Heller myotomy and Dor fundoplication (LHD is widely performed to address achalasia, little is known about the learning curve for this technique. We assessed the learning curve for performing LHD.Of the 514 cases with LHD performed between August 1994 and March 2016, the surgical outcomes of 463 cases were evaluated after excluding 50 cases with reduced port surgery and one case with the simultaneous performance of laparoscopic distal partial gastrectomy. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analysis was used to identify the cut-off value for the number of surgical experiences necessary to become proficient with LHD, which was defined as the completion of the learning curve.We defined the completion of the learning curve when the following 3 conditions were satisfied. 1 The operation time was less than 165 minutes. 2 There was no blood loss. 3 There was no intraoperative complication. In order to establish the appropriate number of surgical experiences required to complete the learning curve, the cut-off value was evaluated by using a ROC curve (AUC 0.717, p < 0.001. Finally, we identified the cut-off value as 16 surgical cases (sensitivity 0.706, specificity 0.646.Learning curve seems to complete after performing 16 cases.

  9. The learning curve for hip arthroscopy: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoppe, Daniel J; de Sa, Darren; Simunovic, Nicole; Bhandari, Mohit; Safran, Marc R; Larson, Christopher M; Ayeni, Olufemi R

    2014-03-01

    The learning curve for hip arthroscopy is consistently characterized as "steep." The purpose of this systematic review was to (1) identify the various learning curves reported in the literature, (2) examine the evidence supporting these curves, and (3) determine whether this evidence supports an accepted number of cases needed to achieve proficiency. The electronic databases Embase and Medline were screened for any clinical studies reporting learning curves in hip arthroscopy. Two reviewers conducted a full-text review of eligible studies and a hand search of conference proceedings and reference sections of the included articles. Inclusion/exclusion criteria were applied, and a quality assessment was completed for each included article. Descriptive statistics were compiled. We identified 6 studies with a total of 1,063 patients. Studies grouped surgical cases into "early" versus "late" in a surgeon's experience, with 30 cases being the most common cutoff used. Most of these studies used descriptive statistics and operative time and complication rates as measures of competence. Five of 6 studies showed improvement in these measures between early and late experience, but only one study proposed a bona fide curve. This review shows that when 30 cases was used as the cutoff point to differentiate between early and late cases in a surgeon's experience, there were significant reductions in operative time and complication rates. However, there was insufficient evidence to quantify the learning curve and validate 30, or any number of cases, as the point at which the learning curve plateaus. As a result, this number should be interpreted with caution. Level IV, systematic review of Level IV studies. Copyright © 2014 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A learning curve for solar thermal power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platzer, Werner J.; Dinter, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Photovoltaics started its success story by predicting the cost degression depending on cumulated installed capacity. This so-called learning curve was published and used for predictions for PV modules first, then predictions of system cost decrease also were developed. This approach is less sensitive to political decisions and changing market situations than predictions on the time axis. Cost degression due to innovation, use of scaling effects, improved project management, standardised procedures including the search for better sites and optimization of project size are learning effects which can only be utilised when projects are developed. Therefore a presentation of CAPEX versus cumulated installed capacity is proposed in order to show the possible future advancement of the technology to politics and market. However from a wide range of publications on cost for CSP it is difficult to derive a learning curve. A logical cost structure for direct and indirect capital expenditure is needed as the basis for further analysis. Using derived reference cost for typical power plant configurations predictions of future cost have been derived. Only on the basis of that cost structure and the learning curve levelised cost of electricity for solar thermal power plants should be calculated for individual projects with different capacity factors in various locations.

  11. A Literature-Based Analysis of the Learning Curves of Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel W. Good

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a trend for the increased adoption of minimally invasive techniques of radical prostatectomy (RP – laparoscopic (LRP and robotic assisted (RARP – from the traditional open radical retropubic prostatectomy (ORP, popularised by Partin et al. Recently there has been a dramatic expansion in the rates of RARP being performed, and there have been many early reports postulating that the learning curve for RARP is shorter than for LRP. The aim of this study was to review the literature and analyse the length of the LRP learning curves for the various outcome measures: perioperative, oncologic, and functional outcomes. A broad search of the literature was performed in November 2013 using the PubMed database. Only studies of real patients and those from 2004 until 2013 were included; those on simulators were excluded. In total, 239 studies were identified after which 13 were included. The learning curve is a heterogeneous entity, depending entirely on the criteria used to define it. There is evidence of multiple learning curves; however the length of these is dependent on the definitions used by the authors. Few studies use the more rigorous definition of plateauing of the curve. Perioperative learning curve takes approximately 150-200 cases to plateau, oncologic curve approximately 200 cases, and the functional learning curve up to 700 cases to plateau (700 for potency, 200 cases for continence. In this review, we have analysed the literature with respect to the learning curve for LRP. It is clear that the learning curve is long. This necessitates centralising LRP to high volume centres such that surgeons, trainees, and patients are able to utilise the benefits of LRP.

  12. The learning curve: implications of a quantitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, Charles R; Fairhurst, Stephen; Balsam, Peter

    2004-09-07

    The negatively accelerated, gradually increasing learning curve is an artifact of group averaging in several commonly used basic learning paradigms (pigeon autoshaping, delay- and trace-eye-blink conditioning in the rabbit and rat, autoshaped hopper entry in the rat, plus maze performance in the rat, and water maze performance in the mouse). The learning curves for individual subjects show an abrupt, often step-like increase from the untrained level of responding to the level seen in the well trained subject. The rise is at least as abrupt as that commonly seen in psychometric functions in stimulus detection experiments. It may indicate that the appearance of conditioned behavior is mediated by an evidence-based decision process, as in stimulus detection experiments. If the appearance of conditioned behavior is taken instead to reflect the increase in an underlying associative strength, then a negligible portion of the function relating associative strength to amount of experience is behaviorally visible. Consequently, rate of learning cannot be estimated from the group-average curve; the best measure is latency to the onset of responding, determined for each subject individually.

  13. The Predictive Value of Ultrasound Learning Curves Across Simulated and Clinical Settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Mette E; Nørgaard, Lone N; Tabor, Ann

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to explore whether learning curves on a virtual-reality (VR) sonographic simulator can be used to predict subsequent learning curves on a physical mannequin and learning curves during clinical training. METHODS: Twenty midwives completed a simulation-based tra......OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to explore whether learning curves on a virtual-reality (VR) sonographic simulator can be used to predict subsequent learning curves on a physical mannequin and learning curves during clinical training. METHODS: Twenty midwives completed a simulation......-based training program in transvaginal sonography. The training was conducted on a VR simulator as well as on a physical mannequin. A subgroup of 6 participants underwent subsequent clinical training. During each of the 3 steps, the participants' performance was assessed using instruments with established...... settings. RESULTS: A good correlation was found between time needed to achieve predefined performance levels on the VR simulator and the physical mannequin (Pearson correlation coefficient .78; P VR simulator correlated well to the clinical performance scores (Pearson...

  14. Does Prior Laparoscopic and Open Surgery Experience Have Any Impact on Learning Curve in Transition to Robotic Surgery?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cüneyt Adayener

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available It has been 15 years since the Food And Drug Administration approved the Da Vinci® robotic surgery system. Robotic applications are being used extensively in urology, particularly in radical prostatectomy. Like all high-tech products, this system also has a high cost and a steep learning curve, therefore, preventing it from becoming widespread. There are various studies on the effect of open surgery or laparoscopy experience on the learning curve of robotic surgery. Analyzing these interactions well will provide valuable information on making the training period of robotic system more efficient.

  15. Endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty: the learning curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Christine; El Zein, Mohamad; Agnihotri, Abhishek; Dunlap, Margo; Chang, Angela; Agrawal, Alison; Barola, Sindhu; Ngamruengphong, Saowanee; Chen, Yen-I; Kalloo, Anthony N; Khashab, Mouen A; Kumbhari, Vivek

    2017-09-01

     Endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) is gaining traction as a minimally invasive bariatric treatment. Concern that the learning curve may be slow, even among those proficient in endoscopic suturing, is a barrier to widespread implementation of the procedure. Therefore, we aimed to define the learning curve for ESG in a single endoscopist experienced in endoscopic suturing who participated in a 1-day ESG training program.  Consecutive patients who underwent ESG between February 2016 and November 2016 were included. The performing endoscopist, who is proficient in endoscopic suturing for non-ESG procedures, participated in a 1-day ESG training session before offering ESG to patients. The outcome measurements were length of procedure (LOP) and number of plications per procedure. Nonlinear regression was used to determine the learning plateau and calculate the learning rate.  Twenty-one consecutive patients (8 males), with mean age 47.7 ± 11.2 years and mean body mass index 41.8 ± 8.5 kg/m 2 underwent ESG. LOP decreased significantly across consecutive procedures, with a learning plateau at 101.5 minutes and a learning rate of 7 cases ( P  = 0.04). The number of plications per procedure also decreased significantly across consecutive procedures, with a plateau at 8 sutures and a learning rate of 9 cases ( P  < 0.001). Further, the average time per plication decreased significantly with consecutive procedures, reaching a plateau at 9 procedures ( P  < 0.001).  Endoscopists experienced in endoscopic suturing are expected to achieve a reduction in LOP and number of plications per procedure in successive cases, with progress plateauing at 7 and 9 cases, respectively.

  16. Learning curves for mutual information maximization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbanczik, R.

    2003-01-01

    An unsupervised learning procedure based on maximizing the mutual information between the outputs of two networks receiving different but statistically dependent inputs is analyzed [S. Becker and G. Hinton, Nature (London) 355, 161 (1992)]. For a generic data model, I show that in the large sample limit the structure in the data is recognized by mutual information maximization. For a more restricted model, where the networks are similar to perceptrons, I calculate the learning curves for zero-temperature Gibbs learning. These show that convergence can be rather slow, and a way of regularizing the procedure is considered

  17. Robotic Mitral Valve Repair: The Learning Curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Avi; Koprivanac, Marijan; Kelava, Marta; Mick, Stephanie L; Gillinov, A Marc; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Brzezinski, Anna; Blackstone, Eugene H; Mihaljevic, Tomislav

    Adoption of robotic mitral valve surgery has been slow, likely in part because of its perceived technical complexity and a poorly understood learning curve. We sought to correlate changes in technical performance and outcome with surgeon experience in the "learning curve" part of our series. From 2006 to 2011, two surgeons undertook robotically assisted mitral valve repair in 458 patients (intent-to-treat); 404 procedures were completed entirely robotically (as-treated). Learning curves were constructed by modeling surgical sequence number semiparametrically with flexible penalized spline smoothing best-fit curves. Operative efficiency, reflecting technical performance, improved for (1) operating room time for case 1 to cases 200 (early experience) and 400 (later experience), from 414 to 364 to 321 minutes (12% and 22% decrease, respectively), (2) cardiopulmonary bypass time, from 148 to 102 to 91 minutes (31% and 39% decrease), and (3) myocardial ischemic time, from 119 to 75 to 68 minutes (37% and 43% decrease). Composite postoperative complications, reflecting safety, decreased from 17% to 6% to 2% (63% and 85% decrease). Intensive care unit stay decreased from 32 to 28 to 24 hours (13% and 25% decrease). Postoperative stay fell from 5.2 to 4.5 to 3.8 days (13% and 27% decrease). There were no in-hospital deaths. Predischarge mitral regurgitation of less than 2+, reflecting effectiveness, was achieved in 395 (97.8%), without correlation to experience; return-to-work times did not change substantially with experience. Technical efficiency of robotic mitral valve repair improves with experience and permits its safe and effective conduct.

  18. From Curve Fitting to Machine Learning

    CERN Document Server

    Zielesny, Achim

    2011-01-01

    The analysis of experimental data is at heart of science from its beginnings. But it was the advent of digital computers that allowed the execution of highly non-linear and increasingly complex data analysis procedures - methods that were completely unfeasible before. Non-linear curve fitting, clustering and machine learning belong to these modern techniques which are a further step towards computational intelligence. The goal of this book is to provide an interactive and illustrative guide to these topics. It concentrates on the road from two dimensional curve fitting to multidimensional clus

  19. Statistical assessment of the learning curves of health technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsay, C R; Grant, A M; Wallace, S A; Garthwaite, P H; Monk, A F; Russell, I T

    2001-01-01

    (1) To describe systematically studies that directly assessed the learning curve effect of health technologies. (2) Systematically to identify 'novel' statistical techniques applied to learning curve data in other fields, such as psychology and manufacturing. (3) To test these statistical techniques in data sets from studies of varying designs to assess health technologies in which learning curve effects are known to exist. METHODS - STUDY SELECTION (HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW): For a study to be included, it had to include a formal analysis of the learning curve of a health technology using a graphical, tabular or statistical technique. METHODS - STUDY SELECTION (NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH): For a study to be included, it had to include a formal assessment of a learning curve using a statistical technique that had not been identified in the previous search. METHODS - DATA SOURCES: Six clinical and 16 non-clinical biomedical databases were searched. A limited amount of handsearching and scanning of reference lists was also undertaken. METHODS - DATA EXTRACTION (HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW): A number of study characteristics were abstracted from the papers such as study design, study size, number of operators and the statistical method used. METHODS - DATA EXTRACTION (NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH): The new statistical techniques identified were categorised into four subgroups of increasing complexity: exploratory data analysis; simple series data analysis; complex data structure analysis, generic techniques. METHODS - TESTING OF STATISTICAL METHODS: Some of the statistical methods identified in the systematic searches for single (simple) operator series data and for multiple (complex) operator series data were illustrated and explored using three data sets. The first was a case series of 190 consecutive laparoscopic fundoplication procedures performed by a single surgeon; the second

  20. Hysteroscopic sterilization using a virtual reality simulator: assessment of learning curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janse, Juliënne A; Goedegebuure, Ruben S A; Veersema, Sebastiaan; Broekmans, Frank J M; Schreuder, Henk W R

    2013-01-01

    To assess the learning curve using a virtual reality simulator for hysteroscopic sterilization with the Essure method. Prospective multicenter study (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). University and teaching hospital in the Netherlands. Thirty novices (medical students) and five experts (gynecologists who had performed >150 Essure sterilization procedures). All participants performed nine repetitions of bilateral Essure placement on the simulator. Novices returned after 2 weeks and performed a second series of five repetitions to assess retention of skills. Structured observations on performance using the Global Rating Scale and parameters derived from the simulator provided measurements for analysis. The learning curve is represented by improvement per procedure. Two-way repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to analyze learning curves. Effect size (ES) was calculated to express the practical significance of the results (ES ≥ 0.50 indicates a large learning effect). For all parameters, significant improvements were found in novice performance within nine repetitions. Large learning effects were established for six of eight parameters (p learning curve established in this study endorses future implementation of the simulator in curricula on hysteroscopic skill acquisition for clinicians who are interested in learning this sterilization technique. Copyright © 2013 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Prospects for PV: a learning curve analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwaan, Bob van der; Rabi, A.

    2003-01-01

    This article gives an overview of the current state-of-the-art of photovoltaic electricity technology, and addresses its potential for cost reductions over the first few decades of the 21st century. Current PV production cost ranges are presented, both in terms of capacity installation and electricity generation, of single crystalline silicon, multi-crystalline silicon, amorphous silicon and other thin film technologies. Possible decreases of these costs are assessed, as expected according to the learning-curve methodology. We also estimate how much PV could gain if external costs (due to environmental and health damage) of energy were internalised, for example by an energy tax. Our conclusions are that, (1) mainly due its high costs, PV electricity is unlikely to play a major role in global energy supply and carbon emissions abatement before 2020, (2) extrapolating learning curves observed in the past, one can expect its costs to decrease significantly over the coming years, so that a considerable PV electricity share world-wide could materialise after 2020, (3) niche-market applications, e.g. using stand-alone systems in remote areas, are crucial for continuing 'the ride along the learning curve', (4) damage costs of conventional (fossil) power sources are considerable, and their internalisation would improve the competitiveness of PV, although probably not enough to close the current cost gap. (author)

  2. Learning Curves of Virtual Mastoidectomy in Distributed and Massed Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steven Arild Wuyts; Konge, Lars; Cayé-Thomasen, Per

    2015-01-01

    IMPORTANCE: Repeated and deliberate practice is crucial in surgical skills training, and virtual reality (VR) simulation can provide self-directed training of basic surgical skills to meet the individual needs of the trainee. Assessment of the learning curves of surgical procedures is pivotal...... in understanding skills acquisition and best-practice implementation and organization of training. OBJECTIVE: To explore the learning curves of VR simulation training of mastoidectomy and the effects of different practice sequences with the aim of proposing the optimal organization of training. DESIGN, SETTING...... plateaued on a score of 16.0 (15.3-16.7) at approximately the ninth repetition, but the individual learning curves were highly variable. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Novices can acquire basic mastoidectomy competencies with self-directed VR simulation training. Training should be organized with distributed...

  3. Application of Learning Curves for Didactic Model Evaluation: Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Mödritscher

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The success of (online courses depends, among other factors, on the underlying didactical models which have always been evaluated with qualitative and quantitative research methods. Several new evaluation techniques have been developed and established in the last years. One of them is ‘learning curves’, which aim at measuring error rates of users when they interact with adaptive educational systems, thereby enabling the underlying models to be evaluated and improved. In this paper, we report how we have applied this new method to two case studies to show that learning curves are useful to evaluate didactical models and their implementation in educational platforms. Results show that the error rates follow a power law distribution with each additional attempt if the didactical model of an instructional unit is valid. Furthermore, the initial error rate, the slope of the curve and the goodness of fit of the curve are valid indicators for the difficulty level of a course and the quality of its didactical model. As a conclusion, the idea of applying learning curves for evaluating didactical model on the basis of usage data is considered to be valuable for supporting teachers and learning content providers in improving their online courses.

  4. Teaching Learning Curves in an Undergraduate Economics or Operations Management Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidu, Jaideep T.; Sanford, John F.

    2012-01-01

    Learning Curves has its roots in economics and behavioral psychology. Learning Curves theory has several business applications and is widely used in the industry. As faculty of Operations Management courses, we cover this topic in some depth in the classroom. In this paper, we present some of our teaching methods and material that have helped us…

  5. Training in robotics: The learning curve and contemporary concepts in training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach, Christian; Miernik, Arkadiusz; Schönthaler, Martin

    2014-03-01

    To define the learning curve of robot-assisted laparoscopic surgery for prostatectomy (RALP) and upper tract procedures, and show the differences between the classical approach to training and the new concept of parallel learning. This mini-review is based on the results of a Medline search using the keywords 'da Vinci', 'robot-assisted laparoscopic surgery', 'training', 'teaching' and 'learning curve'. For RALP and robot-assisted upper tract surgery, a learning curve of 8-150 procedures is quoted, with most articles proposing that 30-40 cases are needed to carry out the procedure safely. There is no consensus about which endpoints should be measured. In the traditional proctored training model, the surgeon learns the procedure linearly, following the sequential order of the surgical steps. A more recent approach is to specify the relative difficulty of each step and to train the surgeon simultaneously in several steps of equal difficulty. The entire procedure is only performed after all the steps are mastered in a timely manner. Recently, a 'warm-up' before robotic surgery has been shown to be beneficial for successful surgery in the operating room. There is no clear definition of the duration of the effective learning curve for RALP and robotic upper tract surgery. The concept of stepwise, parallel learning has the potential to accelerate the learning process and to make sure that initial cases are not too long. It can also be assumed that a preoperative 'warm up' could help significantly to improve the progress of the trainee.

  6. Learning curves for ultrasound guided lung biopsy in the hands of respiratory physicians

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Christian; Naur, Therese Maria Henriette; Bodtger, Uffe

    2016-01-01

    are depicted in figure 1. Six of the physicians had learning curves with a relatively downward or stable projection as a sign of developing competence. Three physicians, however, had learning curves with an upward projection indicating unacceptable competence in performing the procedure......Background: The aim of this study was to determine learning curves for ultrasound guided transthoracic needle biopsies (US-TTNB) performed by respiratory physicians after implementation at three different centers.Methods: During January 2012 to August 2014 patients were included if they had...... a registered US-TTNB procedure at any of the three centers. The US-TTNB was defined as being successful if the result was diagnostic and otherwise as being unsuccessful. Histology or cytology results and clinical follow-up were used as a reference tests. The learning curves for physicians having performed...

  7. Colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) in the West - when can satisfactory results be obtained? A single-operator learning curve analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spychalski, Michał; Skulimowski, Aleksander; Dziki, Adam; Saito, Yutaka

    2017-12-01

    Up to date we lack a detailed description of the colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) learning curve, that would represent the experience of the Western center. The aim of this study was to define the critical points of the learning curve and to draw up lesions qualification guidelines tailored to the endoscopists experience. We have carried out a single center prospective study. Between June 2013 and December 2016, 228 primary colorectal lesions were managed by ESD procedure. In order to create a learning curve model and to carry out the analysis the cases were divided into six periods, each consisting of 38 cases. The overall en bloc resection rate was 79.39%. The lowest en bloc resection rate (52.36%) was observed in the first period. After completing 76 procedures, the resection rate surged to 86% and it was accompanied by the significant increase in the mean procedure speed of ≥9 cm 2 /h. Lesions localization and diameter had a signification impact on the outcomes. After 76 procedures, en bloc resection rate of 90.9 and 90.67% were achieved for the left side of colon and rectum, respectively. In the right side of colon statistically significant lower resection rate of 67.57% was observed. We have proved that in the setting of the Western center, colorectal ESD can yield excellent results. It seems that the key to the success during the learning period is 'tailoring' lesions qualification guidelines to the experience of the endoscopist, as lesions diameter and localization highly influence the outcomes.

  8. Machine Learning Techniques for Stellar Light Curve Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinners, Trisha A.; Tat, Kevin; Thorp, Rachel

    2018-07-01

    We apply machine learning techniques in an attempt to predict and classify stellar properties from noisy and sparse time-series data. We preprocessed over 94 GB of Kepler light curves from the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST) to classify according to 10 distinct physical properties using both representation learning and feature engineering approaches. Studies using machine learning in the field have been primarily done on simulated data, making our study one of the first to use real light-curve data for machine learning approaches. We tuned our data using previous work with simulated data as a template and achieved mixed results between the two approaches. Representation learning using a long short-term memory recurrent neural network produced no successful predictions, but our work with feature engineering was successful for both classification and regression. In particular, we were able to achieve values for stellar density, stellar radius, and effective temperature with low error (∼2%–4%) and good accuracy (∼75%) for classifying the number of transits for a given star. The results show promise for improvement for both approaches upon using larger data sets with a larger minority class. This work has the potential to provide a foundation for future tools and techniques to aid in the analysis of astrophysical data.

  9. Periodic Solutions, Eigenvalue Curves, and Degeneracy of the Fractional Mathieu Equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parra-Hinojosa, A; Gutiérrez-Vega, J C

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the eigenvalue curves, the behavior of the periodic solutions, and the orthogonality properties of the Mathieu equation with an additional fractional derivative term using the method of harmonic balance. The addition of the fractional derivative term breaks the hermiticity of the equation in such a way that its eigenvalues need not be real nor its eigenfunctions orthogonal. We show that for a certain choice of parameters the eigenvalue curves reveal the appearance of degenerate eigenvalues. We offer a detailed discussion of the matrix representation of the differential operator corresponding to the fractional Mathieu equation, as well as some numerical examples of its periodic solutions. (paper)

  10. Light Curve Periodic Variability of Cyg X-1 using Jurkevich Method

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Jurkevich method is a useful method to explore periodicity in the unevenly sampled observational data. In this work, we adopted the method to the light curve of Cyg X-1 from 1996 to 2012, and found that there is an interesting period of 370 days, which appears in both low/hard and high/soft states. That period may be ...

  11. The Quantitative Evaluation of Functional Neuroimaging Experiments: Mutual Information Learning Curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjems, Ulrik; Hansen, Lars Kai; Anderson, Jon

    2002-01-01

    Learning curves are presented as an unbiased means for evaluating the performance of models for neuroimaging data analysis. The learning curve measures the predictive performance in terms of the generalization or prediction error as a function of the number of independent examples (e.g., subjects......) used to determine the parameters in the model. Cross-validation resampling is used to obtain unbiased estimates of a generic multivariate Gaussian classifier, for training set sizes from 2 to 16 subjects. We apply the framework to four different activation experiments, in this case \\$\\backslash......\\$[/sup 15/ O]water data sets, although the framework is equally valid for multisubject fMRI studies. We demonstrate how the prediction error can be expressed as the mutual information between the scan and the scan label, measured in units of bits. The mutual information learning curve can be used...

  12. Uniportal video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery: safety, efficacy and learning curve during the first 250 cases in Quebec, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drevet, Gabrielle; Ugalde Figueroa, Paula

    2016-03-01

    Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) using a single incision (uniportal) may result in better pain control, earlier mobilization and shorter hospital stays. Here, we review the safety and efficiency of our initial experience with uniportal VATS and evaluate our learning curve. We conducted a retrospective review of uniportal VATS using a prospectively maintained departmental database and analyzed patients who had undergone a lung anatomic resection separately from patients who underwent other resections. To assess the learning curve, we compared the first 10 months of the study period with the second 10 months. From January 2014 to August 2015, 250 patients underwent intended uniportal VATS, including 180 lung anatomic resections (72%) and 70 other resections (28%). Lung anatomic resection was successfully completed using uniportal VATS in 153 patients (85%), which comprised all the anatomic segmentectomies (29 patients), 80% (4 of 5) of the pneumonectomies and 82% (120 of 146) of the lobectomies attempted. The majority of lung anatomic resections that required conversion to thoracotomy occurred in the first half of our study period. Seventy patients underwent other uniportal VATS resections. Wedge resections were the most common of these procedures (25 patients, 35.7%). Although 24 of the 70 patients (34%) required the placement of additional ports, none required conversion to thoracotomy. Uniportal VATS was safe and feasible for both standard and complex pulmonary resections. However, when used for pulmonary anatomic resections, uniportal VATS entails a steep learning curve.

  13. Observations and light curve solutions of four ultrashort-period binaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kjurkchieva D.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents light curve solutions of our observations of four new ultrashort-period eclipsing binaries with MS components. Two of them have periods almost at the upper limit (0.22 days of the ultrashort-period binaries, while the periods of around 0.18 days of CSS J171508.5+350658 and CSS J214633.8+120016 are amongst the shortest known orbital periods. CSS J171410.0+ 445850, CSS J214633.8+120016 and CSS J224326.0+154532 are over contact binaries with fill out factors around 0.25 while CSS J171508.5+350658 is a semidetached system. The two targets with shortest periods consist of M dwarfs.

  14. SILC for SILC: Single Institution Learning Curve for Single-Incision Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chee Wei Tay

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. We report the single-incision laparoscopic cholecystectomy (SILC learning experience of 2 hepatobiliary surgeons and the factors that could influence the learning curve of SILC. Methods. Patients who underwent SILC by Surgeons A and B were studied retrospectively. Operating time, conversion rate, reason for conversion, identity of first assistants, and their experience with previous laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC were analysed. CUSUM analysis is used to identify learning curve. Results. Hundred and nineteen SILC cases were performed by Surgeons A and B, respectively. Eight cases required additional port. In CUSUM analysis, most conversion occurred during the first 19 cases. Operating time was significantly lower (62.5 versus 90.6 min, P = 0.04 after the learning curve has been overcome. Operating time decreases as the experience increases, especially Surgeon B. Most conversions are due to adhesion at Calot’s triangle. Acute cholecystitis, patients’ BMI, and previous surgery do not seem to influence conversion rate. Mean operating times of cases assisted by first assistant with and without LC experience were 48 and 74 minutes, respectively (P = 0.004. Conclusion. Nineteen cases are needed to overcome the learning curve of SILC. Team work, assistant with CLC experience, and appropriate equipment and technique are the important factors in performing SILC.

  15. Learning curves for solid oxide fuel cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivera-Tinoco, R.; Schoots, K. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (Netherlands). Policy Studies; Zwaan, B.C.C. van der [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (Netherlands). Policy Studies; Columbia Univ., New York City, NY (United States). Lenfest Center for Sustainable Energy

    2010-07-01

    We present learning curves for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and combined heat and power (CHP) SOFC systems with an electric capacity between 1 and 250 kW. On the basis of the cost breakdown of production cost data from fuel cell manufacturers, we developed a bottom-up model that allows for determining overall manufacturing costs from their respective cost components, among which material, energy, labor, and capital charges. The results obtained from our model prove to deviate by at most 13% from total cost figures quoted in the literature. For the early pilot stage of development, we find for SOFC manufacturing a learning rate between 14% and 17%, and for total SOFC system fabrication between 16% and 19%. We argue that the corresponding cost reductions result largely from learning-by-searching effects (R and D) rather than learning-by-doing. When considering a longer time frame that includes the early commercial production stage, we find learning rates between 14% and 39%, which represent a mix of phenomena such as learning-by-doing, learning-by-searching, economies-of-scale and automation. (orig.)

  16. Climbing the health learning curve together | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-01-25

    Jan 25, 2011 ... Climbing the health learning curve together ... Many of the projects are creating master's programs at their host universities ... Formerly based in the high Arctic, Atlantis is described by Dr Martin Forde of St George's University ...

  17. LEARNING CURVE IN SINGLE-LEVEL MINIMALLY INVASIVE TLIF: EXPERIENCE OF A NEUROSURGEON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Romano-Feinholz

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To describe the learning curve that shows the progress of a single neurosurgeon when performing single-level MI-TLIF. Methods: We included 99 consecutive patients who underwent single-level MI-TLIF by the same neurosurgeon (JASS. Patient’s demographic characteristics were analyzed. In addition, surgical time, intraoperative blood loss and hospital stay were evaluated. The learning curves were calculated with a piecewise regression model. Results: The mean age was 54.6 years. The learning curves showed an inverse relationship between the surgical experience and the variable analyzed, reaching an inflection point for surgical time in case 43 and for blood loss in case 48. The mean surgical time was 203.3 minutes (interquartile range [IQR] 150-240 minutes, intraoperative bleeding was 97.4ml (IQR 40-100ml and hospital stay of four days (IQR 3-5 days. Conclusions: MI-TLIF is a very frequent surgical procedure due to its effectiveness and safety, which has shown similar results to open procedure. According to this study, the required learning curve is slightly higher than for open procedures, and is reached after about 45 cases.

  18. Learning Curves of Virtual Mastoidectomy in Distributed and Massed Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Steven Arild Wuyts; Konge, Lars; Cayé-Thomasen, Per; Sørensen, Mads Sølvsten

    2015-10-01

    Repeated and deliberate practice is crucial in surgical skills training, and virtual reality (VR) simulation can provide self-directed training of basic surgical skills to meet the individual needs of the trainee. Assessment of the learning curves of surgical procedures is pivotal in understanding skills acquisition and best-practice implementation and organization of training. To explore the learning curves of VR simulation training of mastoidectomy and the effects of different practice sequences with the aim of proposing the optimal organization of training. A prospective trial with a 2 × 2 design was conducted at an academic teaching hospital. Participants included 43 novice medical students. Of these, 21 students completed time-distributed practice from October 14 to November 29, 2013, and a separate group of 19 students completed massed practice on May 16, 17, or 18, 2014. Data analysis was performed from June 6, 2014, to March 3, 2015. Participants performed 12 repeated virtual mastoidectomies using a temporal bone surgical simulator in either a distributed (practice blocks spaced in time) or massed (all practice in 1 day) training program with randomization for simulator-integrated tutoring during the first 5 sessions. Performance was assessed using a modified Welling Scale for final product analysis by 2 blinded senior otologists. Compared with the 19 students in the massed practice group, the 21 students in the distributed practice group were older (mean age, 25.1 years), more often male (15 [62%]), and had slightly higher mean gaming frequency (2.3 on a 1-5 Likert scale). Learning curves were established and distributed practice was found to be superior to massed practice, reported as mean end score (95% CI) of 15.7 (14.4-17.0) in distributed practice vs. 13.0 (11.9-14.1) with massed practice (P = .002). Simulator-integrated tutoring accelerated the initial performance, with mean score for tutored sessions of 14.6 (13.9-15.2) vs. 13.4 (12.8-14.0) for

  19. LEARNING CURVE IN ENDOSCOPIC TRANSNASAL SELLAR REGION SURGERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ananth G

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The endoscopic endonasal approach for the sellar region lesions is a novel technique and an effective surgical option. The evidence thus far has been conflicting with reports in favour and against a learning curve. We attempt to determine the learning curve associated with this approach. METHODS Retrospective and prospective data of the patients who were surgically treated for sellar region lesions between the year 2013 and 2016 was collected, 32 patients were operated by the endoscopic endonasal approach at Vydehi Institute of Medical Sciences and Research Centre, Bangalore. Age, sex, presenting symptoms, length of hospital stay, surgical approach, type of dissection, duration of surgery, sellar floor repair, intraoperative and postoperative complications were noted. All the procedures were performed by a single neurosurgeon. RESULTS A total of 32 patients were operated amongst which 21 patients were non-functioning pituitary adenomas, 2 were growth hormone secreting functional adenomas, 1 was an invasive pituitary adenoma, 4 were craniopharyngiomas, 2 were meningiomas, 1 was Rathke’s cleft cyst and 1 was a clival chordoma. Headache was the mode of presentation in 12 patients, 12 patients had visual deficits, 6 patients presented with hormonal disturbances amongst which 4 patients presented with features of panhypopituitarism and 2 with acromegaly. Amongst the 4 patients with panhypopituitarism, 2 also had DI, two patients presented with CSF rhinorrhoea. There was a 100% improvement in the patients who presented with visual symptoms. Gross total resection was achieved in all 4 cases of craniopharyngiomas and 13 cases of pituitary adenomas. Postoperative CSF leak was seen in 4 patients who underwent re-exploration and sellar floor repair, 9 patients had postoperative Diabetes Insipidus (DI which was transient, the incidence of DI reduced towards the end of the study. There was a 25% decrease in the operating time towards the end of

  20. Light Curve Periodic Variability of Cyg X-1 using Jurkevich Method ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. The Jurkevich method is a useful method to explore periodic- ity in the unevenly sampled observational data. In this work, we adopted the method to the light curve of Cyg X-1 from 1996 to 2012, and found that there is an interesting period of 370 days, which appears in both low/hard and high/soft states.

  1. Learning curve for laparoendoscopic single-site surgery for an experienced laparoscopic surgeon

    OpenAIRE

    Pao-Ling Torng; Kuan-Hung Lin; Jing-Shiang Hwang; Hui-Shan Liu; I-Hui Chen; Chi-Ling Chen; Su-Cheng Huang

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: To assess the learning curve and safety of laparoendoscopic single-site (LESS) surgery of gynecological surgeries. Materials and methods: Sixty-three women who underwent LESS surgery by a single experienced laparoscopic surgeon from February 2011 to August 2011 were included. Commercialized single-incision laparoscopic surgery homemade ports were used, along with conventional straight instruments. The learning curve has been defined as the additional surgical time with respect ...

  2. Periodicity Analysis of X-ray Light Curves of SS 433

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun-yi; Lu, Xiang-long; Zhao, Qiu-wen; Dong, Dian-qiao; Lao, Bao-qiang; Lu, Yang; Wei, Yan-heng; Wu, Xiao-cong; An, Tao

    2017-01-01

    SS 433 is sofar the unique X-ray binary that has the simultaneously detected orbital period, super-orbital period, and nutation period, as well as a bidirectional spiral jet. The study on its X-ray light variability is helpful for understanding the dynamic process of the system, and the correlations between the different wavebands. In this paper, two time-series analysis techniques, i.e., the Lomb-Scargle periodogram and weighted wavelet Z-transform, are employed to search for the periods in the Swift/BAT (Burst Alert Telescope) (15-50 keV) and RXTE/ASM (Rose X-ray Timing Explorer/All Sky Monitor) (1.5-3, 3- 4, and 5-12 keV) light curves of SS 433, and the Monte Carlo simulation is performed for the obtained periodical components. For the 15-50 keV energy band, five significant periodical components are detected, which are P1(∼6.29 d), P2 (∼6.54 d), P3 (∼13.08 d), P4 (∼81.50 d), and P5 (∼162.30 d). For the 3-5 and 5-12 keV energy bands, the periodical components P3 (∼13 d) and P5 (∼162 d) are detected in both energy bands. However, for the 1.5-3 keV energy band, no significant periodic signal is detected. P5 is the strongest periodic signal in the power spectrum for all the energy bands of 3-5, 5-12, and 15-50 keV, and it is consistent with the previous result obtained from the study of optical light curves. Furthermore, in combination with the radio spiral jet of SS 433, it is suggested that the X-ray and optical variability of P5 (∼162 d) is probably related to the precession of its relativistic jet. The high correlation between the X-ray and optical light curves may also imply that the X-ray and optical radiations are of the same physical origin. P3 shows a good agreement with the orbital period (∼13.07 d) obtained by the previous study, and P2 and P4 are respectively the high-frequency harmonics of P3 and P5. P1 is detected only in the power spectrum of the 15-50 keV energy band, and it is consistent with the nutation period of the system. As

  3. Training, Simulation, the Learning Curve, and How to Reduce Complications in Urology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunckhorst, Oliver; Volpe, Alessandro; van der Poel, Henk; Mottrie, Alexander; Ahmed, Kamran

    2016-04-01

    Urology is at the forefront of minimally invasive surgery to a great extent. These procedures produce additional learning challenges and possess a steep initial learning curve. Training and assessment methods in surgical specialties such as urology are known to lack clear structure and often rely on differing operative flow experienced by individuals and institutions. This article aims to assess current urology training modalities, to identify the role of simulation within urology, to define and identify the learning curves for various urologic procedures, and to discuss ways to decrease complications in the context of training. A narrative review of the literature was conducted through December 2015 using the PubMed/Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases. Evidence of the validity of training methods in urology includes observation of a procedure, mentorship and fellowship, e-learning, and simulation-based training. Learning curves for various urologic procedures have been recommended based on the available literature. The importance of structured training pathways is highlighted, with integration of modular training to ensure patient safety. Valid training pathways are available in urology. The aim in urology training should be to combine all of the available evidence to produce procedure-specific curricula that utilise the vast array of training methods available to ensure that we continue to improve patient outcomes and reduce complications. The current evidence for different training methods available in urology, including simulation-based training, was reviewed, and the learning curves for various urologic procedures were critically analysed. Based on the evidence, future pathways for urology curricula have been suggested to ensure that patient safety is improved. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Industrial Learning Curves Series Production of the LHC Main Superconduting Dipoles

    CERN Document Server

    Fessia, Paolo; Rossi, Lucio

    2007-01-01

    By mid August 2006, 1160 of the 1232 of LHC main dipoles have been delivered to CERN by the three suppliers in charge of the production. The training of the staff, mostly hired just for this manufacture, and the improvement of the procedures with the acquired experience, naturally decrease the time necessary for the assembly of a unit. The aim of this paper is to apply methodologies like the cost-based learning curves and the time-based learning curves to the LHC Main Dipole production comparing the estimated learning percentage to the ones experienced in other industries. This type of analysis, already presented on 500 units is here extended to more than 1000 completed units. The work also tries to identify which type of industry presents the learning percentages that are the most similar to our case and to investigate the impact of the production strategy on the process efficiency.

  5. Taking the brakes off the learning curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheysen, Freja; Lasne, Gabriel; Pélégrini-Issac, Mélanie; Albouy, Genevieve; Meunier, Sabine; Benali, Habib; Doyon, Julien; Popa, Traian

    2017-03-01

    Motor learning is characterized by patterns of cerebello-striato-cortical activations shifting in time, yet the early dynamic and function of these activations remains unclear. Five groups of subjects underwent either continuous or intermittent theta-burst stimulation of one cerebellar hemisphere, or no stimulation just before learning a new motor sequence during fMRI scanning. We identified three phases during initial learning: one rapid, one slow, and one quasi-asymptotic performance phase. These phases were not changed by left cerebellar stimulation. Right cerebellar inhibition, however, accelerated learning and enhanced brain activation in critical motor learning-related areas during the first phase, continuing with reduced brain activation but high-performance in late phase. Right cerebellar excitation did not affect the early learning process, but slowed learning significantly in late phase, along with increased brain activation. We conclude that the right cerebellum is a key factor coordinating other neuronal loops in the early acquisition of an explicit motor sequential skill. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1676-1691, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Using Floquet periodicity to easily calculate dispersion curves and wave structures of homogeneous waveguides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakoda, Christopher; Rose, Joseph; Shokouhi, Parisa; Lissenden, Clifford

    2018-04-01

    Dispersion curves are essential to any guided-wave-related project. The Semi-Analytical Finite Element (SAFE) method has become the conventional way to compute dispersion curves for homogeneous waveguides. However, only recently has a general SAFE formulation for commercial and open-source software become available, meaning that until now SAFE analyses have been variable and more time consuming than desirable. Likewise, the Floquet boundary conditions enable analysis of waveguides with periodicity and have been an integral part of the development of metamaterials. In fact, we have found the use of Floquet boundary conditions to be an extremely powerful tool for homogeneous waveguides, too. The nuances of using periodic boundary conditions for homogeneous waveguides that do not exhibit periodicity are discussed. Comparisons between this method and SAFE are made for selected homogeneous waveguide applications. The COMSOL Multiphysics software is used for the results shown, but any standard finite element software that can implement Floquet periodicity (user-defined or built-in) should suffice. Finally, we identify a number of complex waveguides for which dispersion curves can be found with relative ease by using the periodicity inherent to the Floquet boundary conditions.

  7. Brief periods of NREM sleep do not promote early offline gains but subsequent on-task performance in motor skill learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Jonathan G; Piosczyk, Hannah; Holz, Johannes; Landmann, Nina; Deschler, Christoph; Frase, Lukas; Kuhn, Marion; Klöppel, Stefan; Spiegelhalder, Kai; Sterr, Annette; Riemann, Dieter; Feige, Bernd; Voderholzer, Ulrich; Nissen, Christoph

    2017-11-01

    Sleep modulates motor learning, but its detailed impact on performance curves remains to be fully characterized. This study aimed to further determine the impact of brief daytime periods of NREM sleep on 'offline' (task discontinuation after initial training) and 'on-task' (performance within the test session) changes in motor skill performance (finger tapping task). In a mixed design (combined parallel group and repeated measures) sleep laboratory study (n=17 'active' wake vs. sleep, n=19 'passive' wake vs. sleep), performance curves were assessed prior to and after a 90min period containing either sleep, active or passive wakefulness. We observed a highly significant, but state- (that is, sleep/wake)-independent early offline gain and improved on-task performance after sleep in comparison to wakefulness. Exploratory curve fitting suggested that the observed sleep effect most likely emerged from an interaction of training-induced improvement and detrimental 'time-on-task' processes, such as fatigue. Our results indicate that brief periods of NREM sleep do not promote early offline gains but subsequent on-task performance in motor skill learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Surgery by a Neurosurgeon: Learning Curve for Neurosurgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyun, Seung-Jae; Han, Sanghyun; Kim, Ki-Jeong; Jahng, Tae-Ahn; Kim, Yongjung J; Rhim, Seung-Chul; Kim, Hyun-Jib

    2018-02-01

    To determine a neurosurgeon's learning curve of surgical treatment for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients. This study is a retrospective analysis. Forty-six patients were treated by a single neurosurgeon between 2011 and 2017 using posterior segmental instrumentation and fusion. According to the time period, the former and latter 23 patients were divided into group 1 and group 2, respectively. Patients' demographic data, curve magnitude, number of levels treated, amount of correction achieved, radiographic/clinical outcomes, and complications were compared between the groups. The majority were females (34 vs. 12) with average ages of 15.0 versus 15.6, respectively. The mean follow-up period was 24.6 months. The average number of fusion levels was similar with 10.3 and 11.5 vertebral bodies in groups 1 and 2, respectively. The average Cobb angle of major curvature was 59.8° and 58.5° in groups 1 and 2, respectively. There observed significant reductions of operative time (324.4 vs. 224.7 minutes, P = 0.007) and estimated blood loss (648.3 vs. 438.0 mL, P = 0.027) in group 2. The correction rate of the major structural curve was greater in group 2 (70.7% vs. 81.0%, P = 0.001). There was no case of neurologic deficit, infection, and revision for screw malposition. One patient of group 1 underwent fusion extension surgery for shoulder asymmetry. Radiographic and clinical outcomes of AIS patients treated by a neurosurgeon were acceptable. AIS surgery may be performed with an acceptable rate of complications after about 20 surgeries. With acquisition of surgical experiences, neurosurgeons could perform deformity surgery for AIS effectively and safely. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Learner Characteristic Based Learning Effort Curve Mode: The Core Mechanism on Developing Personalized Adaptive E-Learning Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Pi-Shan

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to develop the core mechanism for realizing the development of personalized adaptive e-learning platform, which is based on the previous learning effort curve research and takes into account the learner characteristics of learning style and self-efficacy. 125 university students from Taiwan are classified into 16 groups according…

  10. Learning-curve estimation techniques for nuclear industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1983-01-01

    Statistical techniques are developed to estimate the progress made by the nuclear industry in learning to prevent accidents. Learning curves are derived for accident occurrence rates based on acturial data, predictions are made for the future, and compact analytical equations are obtained for the statistical accuracies of the estimates. Both maximum likelihood estimation and the method of moments are applied to obtain parameters for the learning models, and results are compared to each other and to earlier graphical and analytical results. An effective statistical test is also derived to assess the significance of trends. The models used associate learning directly to accidents, to the number of plants and to the cumulative number of operating years. Using as a data base nine core damage accidents in electricity-producing plants, it is estimated that the probability of a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year.

  11. Learning-curve estimation techniques for nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1983-01-01

    Statistical techniques are developed to estimate the progress made by the nuclear industry in learning to prevent accidents. Learning curves are derived for accident occurrence rates based on acturial data, predictions are made for the future, and compact analytical equations are obtained for the statistical accuracies of the estimates. Both maximum likelihood estimation and the method of moments are applied to obtain parameters for the learning models, and results are compared to each other and to earlier graphical and analytical results. An effective statistical test is also derived to assess the significance of trends. The models used associate learning directly to accidents, to the number of plants and to the cumulative number of operating years. Using as a data base nine core damage accidents in electricity-producing plants, it is estimated that the probability of a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year

  12. Learning curve estimation techniques for nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, Jussi K.

    1983-01-01

    Statistical techniques are developed to estimate the progress made by the nuclear industry in learning to prevent accidents. Learning curves are derived for accident occurrence rates based on actuarial data, predictions are made for the future, and compact analytical equations are obtained for the statistical accuracies of the estimates. Both maximum likelihood estimation and the method of moments are applied to obtain parameters for the learning models, and results are compared to each other and to earlier graphical and analytical results. An effective statistical test is also derived to assess the significance of trends. The models used associate learning directly to accidents, to the number of plants and to the cumulative number of operating years. Using as a data base nine core damage accidents in electricity-producing plants, it is estimated that the probability of a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year

  13. A powerful test for weak periodic signals with unknown light curve shape in sparse data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jager De, O.C.; Raubenheimer, B.C.; Swanepoel, J.W.H.

    1989-01-01

    A problem with most tests for periodicity is that they are powerful enough to detect only certain kinds of periodic shapes in the case of weak signals. This causes a selection effect with the identification of weak periodic signals. A new test for uniformity called the H-test is derived for which the probability distribution is an exponential function. This test is shown to have a very good power against most light curve shapes encountered in X- and γ-ray Astronomy and therefore makes the detection of sources with a larger variety of shapes possible. The use of the H-test is suggested if no a priori information about the light curve shape is available. It is also shown how the probability distribution of the test statistics changes when a periodicity search is conducted using very small steps in the period or frequency range. The flux sensitivity for various light curve shapes is also derived for a few tests and this flux is on average a minimum for the H-test

  14. Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemet, Gregory F.

    2006-01-01

    The extent and timing of cost-reducing improvements in low-carbon energy systems are important sources of uncertainty in future levels of greenhouse-gas emissions. Models that assess the costs of climate change mitigation policy, and energy policy in general, rely heavily on learning curves to include technology dynamics. Historically, no energy technology has changed more dramatically than photovoltaics (PV), the cost of which has declined by a factor of nearly 100 since the 1950s. Which changes were most important in accounting for the cost reductions that have occurred over the past three decades? Are these results consistent with the notion that learning from experience drove technical change? In this paper, empirical data are assembled to populate a simple model identifying the most important factors affecting the cost of PV. The results indicate that learning from experience, the theoretical mechanism used to explain learning curves, only weakly explains change in the most important factors-plant size, module efficiency, and the cost of silicon. Ways in which the consideration of a broader set of influences, such as technical barriers, industry structure, and characteristics of demand, might be used to inform energy technology policy are discussed

  15. Improving Accuracy and Temporal Resolution of Learning Curve Estimation for within- and across-Session Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabelow, Karsten; König, Reinhard; Polzehl, Jörg

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of learning curves is ubiquitously based on proportions of correct responses within moving trial windows. Thereby, it is tacitly assumed that learning performance is constant within the moving windows, which, however, is often not the case. In the present study we demonstrate that violations of this assumption lead to systematic errors in the analysis of learning curves, and we explored the dependency of these errors on window size, different statistical models, and learning phase. To reduce these errors in the analysis of single-subject data as well as on the population level, we propose adequate statistical methods for the estimation of learning curves and the construction of confidence intervals, trial by trial. Applied to data from an avoidance learning experiment with rodents, these methods revealed performance changes occurring at multiple time scales within and across training sessions which were otherwise obscured in the conventional analysis. Our work shows that the proper assessment of the behavioral dynamics of learning at high temporal resolution can shed new light on specific learning processes, and, thus, allows to refine existing learning concepts. It further disambiguates the interpretation of neurophysiological signal changes recorded during training in relation to learning. PMID:27303809

  16. Improving Accuracy and Temporal Resolution of Learning Curve Estimation for within- and across-Session Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Deliano

    Full Text Available Estimation of learning curves is ubiquitously based on proportions of correct responses within moving trial windows. Thereby, it is tacitly assumed that learning performance is constant within the moving windows, which, however, is often not the case. In the present study we demonstrate that violations of this assumption lead to systematic errors in the analysis of learning curves, and we explored the dependency of these errors on window size, different statistical models, and learning phase. To reduce these errors in the analysis of single-subject data as well as on the population level, we propose adequate statistical methods for the estimation of learning curves and the construction of confidence intervals, trial by trial. Applied to data from an avoidance learning experiment with rodents, these methods revealed performance changes occurring at multiple time scales within and across training sessions which were otherwise obscured in the conventional analysis. Our work shows that the proper assessment of the behavioral dynamics of learning at high temporal resolution can shed new light on specific learning processes, and, thus, allows to refine existing learning concepts. It further disambiguates the interpretation of neurophysiological signal changes recorded during training in relation to learning.

  17. Impact of the learning curve on outcome after transcatheter mitral valve repair

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ledwoch, Jakob; Franke, Jennifer; Baldus, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: This analysis from the German Mitral Valve Registry investigates the impact of the learning curve with the MitraClip(®) technique on procedural success and complications. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive patients treated since 2009 in centers that performed more than 50 transcatheter mitral...... not decrease over time. CONCLUSION: A learning curve using the MitraClip(®) device does not appear to significantly affect acute MR reduction, hospital and 30-day mortality. Most likely, the proctor system leads to already high initial procedure success and relatively short procedure time....

  18. EXTRACTING PERIODIC TRANSIT SIGNALS FROM NOISY LIGHT CURVES USING FOURIER SERIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samsing, Johan [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Peyton Hall, 4 Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2015-07-01

    We present a simple and powerful method for extracting transit signals associated with a known transiting planet from noisy light curves. Assuming the orbital period of the planet is known and the signal is periodic, we illustrate that systematic noise can be removed in Fourier space at all frequencies by only using data within a fixed time frame with a width equal to an integer number of orbital periods. This results in a reconstruction of the full transit signal, which on average is unbiased despite no prior knowledge of either the noise or the transit signal itself being used in the analysis. The method therefore has clear advantages over standard phase folding, which normally requires external input such as nearby stars or noise models for removing systematic components. In addition, we can extract the full orbital transit signal (360°) simultaneously, and Kepler-like data can be analyzed in just a few seconds. We illustrate the performance of our method by applying it to a dataset composed of light curves from Kepler with a fake injected signal emulating a planet with rings. For extracting periodic transit signals, our presented method is in general the optimal and least biased estimator and could therefore lead the way toward the first detections of, e.g., planet rings and exo-trojan asteroids.

  19. An exploratory analysis of personality, attitudes, and study skills on the learning curve within a team-based learning environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persky, Adam M; Henry, Teague; Campbell, Ashley

    2015-03-25

    To examine factors that determine the interindividual variability of learning within a team-based learning environment. Students in a pharmacokinetics course were given 4 interim, low-stakes cumulative assessments throughout the semester and a cumulative final examination. Students' Myers-Briggs personality type was assessed, as well as their study skills, motivations, and attitudes towards team-learning. A latent curve model (LCM) was applied and various covariates were assessed to improve the regression model. A quadratic LCM was applied for the first 4 assessments to predict final examination performance. None of the covariates examined significantly impacted the regression model fit except metacognitive self-regulation, which explained some of the variability in the rate of learning. There were some correlations between personality type and attitudes towards team learning, with introverts having a lower opinion of team-learning than extroverts. The LCM could readily describe the learning curve. Extroverted and introverted personality types had the same learning performance even though preference for team-learning was lower in introverts. Other personality traits, study skills, or practice did not significantly contribute to the learning variability in this course.

  20. Deep-learnt classification of light curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahabal, Ashish; Gieseke, Fabian; Pai, Akshay Sadananda Uppinakudru

    2017-01-01

    is to derive statistical features from the time series and to use machine learning methods, generally supervised, to separate objects into a few of the standard classes. In this work, we transform the time series to two-dimensional light curve representations in order to classify them using modern deep......Astronomy light curves are sparse, gappy, and heteroscedastic. As a result standard time series methods regularly used for financial and similar datasets are of little help and astronomers are usually left to their own instruments and techniques to classify light curves. A common approach...... learning techniques. In particular, we show that convolutional neural networks based classifiers work well for broad characterization and classification. We use labeled datasets of periodic variables from CRTS survey and show how this opens doors for a quick classification of diverse classes with several...

  1. Hydrogen technologies and the technology learning curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.-H.

    1998-01-01

    On their bumpy road to commercialization, hydrogen production, delivery and conversion technologies not only require dedicated research, development and demonstration efforts, but also protected niche markets and early adopters. While niche markets utilize the unique technological properties of hydrogen, adopters exhibit a willingness to pay a premium for hydrogen fueled energy services. The concept of the technology learning curve is applied to estimate the capital requirements associated with the commercialization process of several hydrogen technologies. (author)

  2. The learning curve associated with the introduction of the subcutaneous implantable defibrillator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knops, Reinoud E.; Brouwer, Tom F.; Barr, Craig S.; Theuns, Dominic A.; Boersma, Lucas; Weiss, Raul; Neuzil, Petr; Scholten, Marcoen; Lambiase, Pier D.; Leon, Angel R.; Hood, Margaret; Jones, Paul W.; Wold, Nicholas; Grace, Andrew A.; Olde Nordkamp, Louise R. A.; Burke, Martin C.

    2016-01-01

    Aims The subcutaneous implantable cardioverter defibrillator (S-ICD) was introduced to overcome complications related to transvenous leads. Adoption of the S-ICD requires implanters to learn a new implantation technique. The aim of this study was to assess the learning curve for S-ICD implanters

  3. The learning curve associated with the introduction of the subcutaneous implantable defibrillator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.E. Knops (Reinoud); T.F. Brouwer (Tom F.); C.S. Barr (Craig); D.A.M.J. Theuns (Dominic); L. Boersma (Lucas); R. Weiss (Ram); P. Neuzil (Petr); M.F. Scholten (Marcoen); P.D. Lambiase (Pier); A. Leon (Angel); A.M. Hood (Margaret); P. Jones; Wold, N. (Nicholas); Grace, A.A. (Andrew A.); L.R.A. Olde Nordkamp (Louise R.A.); M.C. Burke (Martin)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractAims: The subcutaneous implantable cardioverter defibrillator (S-ICD) was introduced to overcome complications related to transvenous leads. Adoption of the S-ICD requires implanters to learn a new implantation technique. The aim of this study was to assess the learning curve for S-ICD

  4. Measuring the surgical 'learning curve': methods, variables and competency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Nuzhath; Abboudi, Hamid; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar; Ahmed, Kamran

    2014-03-01

    To describe how learning curves are measured and what procedural variables are used to establish a 'learning curve' (LC). To assess whether LCs are a valuable measure of competency. A review of the surgical literature pertaining to LCs was conducted using the Medline and OVID databases. Variables should be fully defined and when possible, patient-specific variables should be used. Trainee's prior experience and level of supervision should be quantified; the case mix and complexity should ideally be constant. Logistic regression may be used to control for confounding variables. Ideally, a learning plateau should reach a predefined/expert-derived competency level, which should be fully defined. When the group splitting method is used, smaller cohorts should be used in order to narrow the range of the LC. Simulation technology and competence-based objective assessments may be used in training and assessment in LC studies. Measuring the surgical LC has potential benefits for patient safety and surgical education. However, standardisation in the methods and variables used to measure LCs is required. Confounding variables, such as participant's prior experience, case mix, difficulty of procedures and level of supervision, should be controlled. Competency and expert performance should be fully defined. © 2013 The Authors. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

  5. A Primer on the Statistical Modelling of Learning Curves in Health Professions Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusic, Martin V.; Boutis, Kathy; Pecaric, Martin R.; Savenkov, Oleksander; Beckstead, Jason W.; Jaber, Mohamad Y.

    2017-01-01

    Learning curves are a useful way of representing the rate of learning over time. Features include an index of baseline performance (y-intercept), the efficiency of learning over time (slope parameter) and the maximal theoretical performance achievable (upper asymptote). Each of these parameters can be statistically modelled on an individual and…

  6. A Simple yet Accurate Method for Students to Determine Asteroid Rotation Periods from Fragmented Light Curve Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beare, R. A.

    2008-01-01

    Professional astronomers use specialized software not normally available to students to determine the rotation periods of asteroids from fragmented light curve data. This paper describes a simple yet accurate method based on Microsoft Excel[R] that enables students to find periods in asteroid light curve and other discontinuous time series data of…

  7. Evaluation of the learning curve for external cephalic version using cumulative sum analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, So Yun; Han, Jung Yeol; Chang, Eun Hye; Kwak, Dong Wook; Ahn, Hyun Kyung; Ryu, Hyun Mi; Kim, Moon Young

    2017-07-01

    We evaluated the learning curve for external cephalic version (ECV) using learning curve-cumulative sum (LC-CUSUM) analysis. This was a retrospective study involving 290 consecutive cases between October 2013 and March 2017. We evaluated the learning curve for ECV on nulli and over para 1 group using LC-CUSUM analysis on the assumption that 50% and 70% of ECV procedures succeeded by description a trend-line of quadratic function with reliable R 2 values. The overall success rate for ECV was 64.8% (188/290), while the success rate for nullipara and over para 1 groups was 56.2% (100/178) and 78.6% (88/112), respectively. 'H' value, that the actual failure rate does not differ from the acceptable failure rate, was -3.27 and -1.635 when considering ECV success rates of 50% and 70%, respectively. Consequently, in order to obtain a consistent 50% success rate, we would require 57 nullipara cases, and in order to obtain a consistent 70% success rate, we would require 130 nullipara cases. In contrast, 8 to 10 over para 1 cases would be required for an expected success rate of 50% and 70% on over para 1 group. Even a relatively inexperienced physician can experience success with multipara and after accumulating experience, they will manage nullipara cases. Further research is required for LC-CUSUM involving several practitioners instead of a single practitioner. This will lead to the gradual implementation of standard learning curve guidelines for ECV.

  8. Light Curve Stability and Period Behavior of the Contact Binary TZ ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    J. Astrophys. Astr. (2013) 34, 329–339 c Indian Academy of Sciences. Light Curve Stability and Period Behavior of the Contact. Binary TZ Boo. M. M. Elkhateeb1,2 & M. I. Nouh1,2,∗. 1National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, 11421 Helwan, Cairo, Egypt. 2Physics Department, College of Science, Northern ...

  9. PV experience curves for the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerwig, R.

    2005-01-01

    Experience curves are one of several tools used by policy makers to take a look at market development. Numerous curves have been constructed for PV but none specific to the Netherlands. The objective of this report is to take a look at the price development of grid-connected PV systems in the Netherlands using the experience curve theory. After a literature and internet search and attempts to acquire information from PV companies information on 51% of the totally installed capacity was found. Curves for the period 1991-2001 were constructed based on system price, BOS (balance-of-system) price and inverter price. The progress ratio of the locally learning BOS was similar to the globally learning module market. This indicates that the pace of development of the Dutch PV market is similar to the globally followed pace. Improvement of the detail of the data might help to get a better idea of which BOS components have declined most. The similar progress ratio also shows the importance of investing both in module and system research as is the case in the Netherlands

  10. ASTEROID LIGHT CURVES FROM THE PALOMAR TRANSIENT FACTORY SURVEY: ROTATION PERIODS AND PHASE FUNCTIONS FROM SPARSE PHOTOMETRY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waszczak, Adam [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Chang, Chan-Kao; Cheng, Yu-Chi; Ip, Wing-Huen; Kinoshita, Daisuke [Institute of Astronomy, National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan (China); Ofek, Eran O. [Benoziyo Center for Astrophysics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot (Israel); Laher, Russ; Surace, Jason [Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Masci, Frank; Helou, George [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Levitan, David; Prince, Thomas A.; Kulkarni, Shrinivas, E-mail: waszczak@caltech.edu [Division of Physics, Mathematics and Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2015-09-15

    We fit 54,296 sparsely sampled asteroid light curves in the Palomar Transient Factory survey to a combined rotation plus phase-function model. Each light curve consists of 20 or more observations acquired in a single opposition. Using 805 asteroids in our sample that have reference periods in the literature, we find that the reliability of our fitted periods is a complicated function of the period, amplitude, apparent magnitude, and other light-curve attributes. Using the 805-asteroid ground-truth sample, we train an automated classifier to estimate (along with manual inspection) the validity of the remaining ∼53,000 fitted periods. By this method we find that 9033 of our light curves (of ∼8300 unique asteroids) have “reliable” periods. Subsequent consideration of asteroids with multiple light-curve fits indicates a 4% contamination in these “reliable” periods. For 3902 light curves with sufficient phase-angle coverage and either a reliable fit period or low amplitude, we examine the distribution of several phase-function parameters, none of which are bimodal though all correlate with the bond albedo and with visible-band colors. Comparing the theoretical maximal spin rate of a fluid body with our amplitude versus spin-rate distribution suggests that, if held together only by self-gravity, most asteroids are in general less dense than ∼2 g cm{sup −3}, while C types have a lower limit of between 1 and 2 g cm{sup −3}. These results are in agreement with previous density estimates. For 5–20 km diameters, S types rotate faster and have lower amplitudes than C types. If both populations share the same angular momentum, this may indicate the two types’ differing ability to deform under rotational stress. Lastly, we compare our absolute magnitudes (and apparent-magnitude residuals) to those of the Minor Planet Center’s nominal (G = 0.15, rotation-neglecting) model; our phase-function plus Fourier-series fitting reduces asteroid photometric rms

  11. Detection of player learning curve in a car driving game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bontchev, Boyan; Vassileva, Dessislava

    2018-01-01

    Detection of learning curves of player metrics is very important for the serious (or so called applied) games, because it provides an indicator representing how players master the game tasks by acquiring cognitive abilities, knowledge, and necessary skills for solving the game challenges. Real

  12. Learning curve estimation techniques for the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1983-01-01

    Statistical techniques are developed to estimate the progress made by the nuclear industry in learning to prevent accidents. Learning curves are derived for accident occurrence rates based on actuarial data, predictions are made for the future, and compact analytical equations are obtained for the statistical accuracies of the estimates. Both maximum likelihood estimation and the method of moments are applied to obtain parameters for the learning models, and results are compared to each other and to earlier graphical and analytical results. An effective statistical test is also derived to assess the significance of trends. The models used associate learning directly to accidents, to the number of plants and to the cumulative number of operating years. Using as a data base nine core damage accidents in electricity-producing plants, it is estimated that the probability of a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year

  13. Learning curve for robotic-assisted surgery for rectal cancer: use of the cumulative sum method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Tomohiro; Kinugasa, Yusuke; Shiomi, Akio; Sato, Sumito; Yamakawa, Yushi; Kagawa, Hiroyasu; Tomioka, Hiroyuki; Mori, Keita

    2015-07-01

    Few data are available to assess the learning curve for robotic-assisted surgery for rectal cancer. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the learning curve for robotic-assisted surgery for rectal cancer by a surgeon at a single institute. From December 2011 to August 2013, a total of 80 consecutive patients who underwent robotic-assisted surgery for rectal cancer performed by the same surgeon were included in this study. The learning curve was analyzed using the cumulative sum method. This method was used for all 80 cases, taking into account operative time. Operative procedures included anterior resections in 6 patients, low anterior resections in 46 patients, intersphincteric resections in 22 patients, and abdominoperineal resections in 6 patients. Lateral lymph node dissection was performed in 28 patients. Median operative time was 280 min (range 135-683 min), and median blood loss was 17 mL (range 0-690 mL). No postoperative complications of Clavien-Dindo classification Grade III or IV were encountered. We arranged operative times and calculated cumulative sum values, allowing differentiation of three phases: phase I, Cases 1-25; phase II, Cases 26-50; and phase III, Cases 51-80. Our data suggested three phases of the learning curve in robotic-assisted surgery for rectal cancer. The first 25 cases formed the learning phase.

  14. THREE FUNDAMENTAL PERIODS IN AN 87 YEAR LIGHT CURVE OF THE SYMBIOTIC STAR MWC 560

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leibowitz, Elia M.; Formiggini, Liliana, E-mail: elia@astro.tau.ac.il [The Wise Observatory and the School of Physics and Astronomy, Raymond and Beverly Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel)

    2015-08-15

    We construct a visual light curve of the symbiotic star MWC covering the last 87 years of its history. The data were assembled from the literature and from the AAVSO data bank. Most of the periodic components of the system brightness variation can be accounted for by the operation of three basic clocks of the periods P1 = 19,000 days, P2 = 1943 days, and P3 = 722 days. These periods can plausibly, and consistently with the observations, be attributed to three physical mechanisms in the system: the working of a solar-like magnetic dynamo cycle in the outer layers of the giant star of the system, the binary orbit cycle, and the sidereal rotation cycle of the giant star. MWC 560 is the seventh symbiotic star with historical light curves that reveal similar basic characteristics of the systems. The light curves of all these stars are well interpreted on the basis of the current understanding of the physical processes that are the major sources of the optical luminosity of these symbiotic systems.

  15. THREE FUNDAMENTAL PERIODS IN AN 87 YEAR LIGHT CURVE OF THE SYMBIOTIC STAR MWC 560

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leibowitz, Elia M.; Formiggini, Liliana

    2015-01-01

    We construct a visual light curve of the symbiotic star MWC covering the last 87 years of its history. The data were assembled from the literature and from the AAVSO data bank. Most of the periodic components of the system brightness variation can be accounted for by the operation of three basic clocks of the periods P1 = 19,000 days, P2 = 1943 days, and P3 = 722 days. These periods can plausibly, and consistently with the observations, be attributed to three physical mechanisms in the system: the working of a solar-like magnetic dynamo cycle in the outer layers of the giant star of the system, the binary orbit cycle, and the sidereal rotation cycle of the giant star. MWC 560 is the seventh symbiotic star with historical light curves that reveal similar basic characteristics of the systems. The light curves of all these stars are well interpreted on the basis of the current understanding of the physical processes that are the major sources of the optical luminosity of these symbiotic systems

  16. Medical learning curves and the Kantian ideal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Morvan, P; Stock, B

    2005-09-01

    A hitherto unexamined problem for the "Kantian ideal" that one should always treat patients as ends in themselves, and never only as a means to other ends, is explored in this paper. The problem consists of a prima facie conflict between this Kantian ideal and the reality of medical practice. This conflict arises because, at least presently, medical practitioners can only acquire certain skills and abilities by practising on live, human patients, and given the inevitability and ubiquity of learning curves, this learning requires some patients to be treated only as a means to this end. A number of ways of attempting to establish the compatibility of the Kantian Ideal with the reality of medical practice are considered. Each attempt is found to be unsuccessful. Accordingly, until a way is found to reconcile them, we conclude that the Kantian ideal is inconsistent with the reality of medical practice.

  17. Robotic partial nephrectomy - Evaluation of the impact of case mix on the procedural learning curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, A; Ahmed, K; Challacombe, B

    2016-05-01

    Although Robotic partial nephrectomy (RPN) is an emerging technique for the management of small renal masses, this approach is technically demanding. To date, there is limited data on the nature and progression of the learning curve in RPN. To analyse the impact of case mix on the RPN LC and to model the learning curve. The records of the first 100 RPN performed, were analysed at our institution that were carried out by a single surgeon (B.C) (June 2010-December 2013). Cases were split based on their Preoperative Aspects and Dimensions Used for an Anatomical (PADUA) score into the following groups: 6-7, 8-9 and >10. Using a split group (20 patients in each group) and incremental analysis, the mean, the curve of best fit and R(2) values were calculated for each group. Of 100 patients (F:28, M:72), the mean age was 56.4 ± 11.9 years. The number of patients in each PADUA score groups: 6-7, 8-9 and >10 were 61, 32 and 7 respectively. An increase in incidence of more complex cases throughout the cohort was evident within the 8-9 group (2010: 1 case, 2013: 16 cases). The learning process did not significantly affect the proxies used to assess surgical proficiency in this study (operative time and warm ischaemia time). Case difficulty is an important parameter that should be considered when evaluating procedural learning curves. There is not one well fitting model that can be used to model the learning curve. With increasing experience, clinicians tend to operate on more difficult cases. Copyright © 2016 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Contrast agents provide a faster learning curve in dipyridamole stress echocardiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamorano, Jose; Sánchez, Violeta; Moreno, Raúl; Almería, Carlos; Rodrigo, Jose; Serra, Viviana; Azcona, Luis; Aubele, Adalia; Mataix, Luis; Sánchez-Harguindey, Luis

    2002-12-01

    Interobserver variability is an important limitation of the stress echocardiography and depends on the echocardiographer training. Our aim was to evaluate if the use of contrast agents during dipyridamole stress echocardiography would improve the agreement between an experienced and a non-experienced observer in stress echo and therefore if contrast would affect the learning period of dypyridamole stress echo. Two independent observers without knowledge of any patient data interpreted all stress studies. One observer was an experienced one and the other had experience in echocardiography but not in stress echo. Two observers analysed 87 non-selected and consecutive studies. Out of the 87 studies, 46 were performed without contrast administration, whereas i.v. contrast (2.5 g Levovist by two bolus at rest and at peak stress) was administered in 41. In all cases, second harmonic imaging and stress digitalisation pack was used. The agreement between observers showed a kappa index of 0.58 and 0.83 without and with contrast administration, respectively. The use of contrast agents provides a better agreement in the evaluation of stress echo between an experienced and a non-experienced observer in stress echo. Adding routinely contrast agents could probably reduce the number of exams required for the necessary learning curve in stress echocardiography.

  19. Learning curve for laparoendoscopic single-site surgery for an experienced laparoscopic surgeon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pao-Ling Torng

    2013-11-01

    Conclusion: LESS is a safe and feasible alternative to conventional laparoscopic surgery for adnexal and uterine diseases. A learning curve is not required for LESS surgery for experienced laparoscopic surgeons.

  20. Learning curve of thyroid fine-needle aspiration biopsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penín, Manuel; Martín, M Ángeles; San Millán, Beatriz; García, Juana

    2017-12-01

    Fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) is the reference procedure for thyroid nodule evaluation. Its main limitation are inadequate samples, which should be less than 20%. To analyze the learning curve of the procedure by comparing the results of a non-experienced endocrinologist (endocrinologist 2) to those of an experienced one (endocrinologist 1). Sixty FNABs were analyzed from February to June 2016. Each endocrinologist made 2punctures of every nodule in a random order. This order and the professional making every puncture were unknown to the pathologist who examined the samples. Endocrinologist 1 had a higher percentage of diagnoses than endocrinologist 2 (82% vs. 72%, P=.015). In the first 20 FNABs, the difference between both physicians was remarkable and statistically significant (80% vs. 50%, P=.047). In the following 20 FNABs, the difference narrowed and was not statistically significant (90% vs. 65%, P=.058). In the final 20 FNABs, the difference was minimal and not statistically significant (75% vs. 70%, P=.723). The learning curve of ultrasound-guided FNAB may be completed in a suitable environment by performing it at least 60 times. Although the guidelines recommend at least 3punctures per nodule, 2are enough to achieve an accurate percentage of diagnoses. Copyright © 2017 SEEN y SED. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. Learning from the Sun. Analysis of the use of experience curves for energy policy purposes. The case of photovoltaic power. Final report of the Photex project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaeffer, G.J.; Seebregts, A.J.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; De Moor, H.H.C.; Alsema, E.; Sark, W.; Durstewicz, M.; Perrin, M.; Boulanger, P.; Laukamp, H.; Zuccaro, C.

    2004-08-01

    Since the 1990s energy policy scientists have started to explore the possibilities of using the experience curve approach for energy policy making. The concept of the experience curve is simple, at least in principle. It states that, for every doubling of cumulative produced capacity of a product or technology, the cost for making it declines with a fixed percentage (learning rate). Historical statistical analysis can be used to define this percentage. Extrapolating the trend thus found, into the future will then give relevant information about future cost developments and will also give information how much 'learning money' will be needed to get to the break-even point. The Photex project used the development of solar PV as a case to further explore this approach, and also to deduce lessons for PV policy. Other aims were to look at learning rates of the different components of PV-systems and to combine the experience curve analyses with bottom-up engineering studies. The main conclusion with regard to the use of experience curves for energy policy making is that this is an interesting approach, but that such an analysis should be done with much care. For the historical analysis the availability of reliable and firm data is essential. As cost data often are not available, price data could be used as a proxy, as long as sufficient long time ranges are used. Also, the analyst should take care he considers the right learning system boundaries. Furthermore the number of years to be included in the statistical analysis should at least be 10 years and this period sample should not over-represent stable price periods or periods of steep price decline. If possible, data uncertainties should be taken into account as well. An interesting finding was that, at least in the case of PV, the learning rate is not a constant, but can vary over time. In the case of PV it improved from 20% to 23%. Extrapolations into the future should take uncertainties into account and always be

  2. Learning curve analysis of mitral valve repair using telemanipulative technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charland, Patrick J; Robbins, Tom; Rodriguez, Evilio; Nifong, Wiley L; Chitwood, Randolph W

    2011-08-01

    To determine if the time required to perform mitral valve repairs using telemanipulation technology decreases with experience and how that decrease is influenced by patient and procedure variables. A single-center retrospective review was conducted using perioperative and outcomes data collected contemporaneously on 458 mitral valve repair surgeries using telemanipulative technology. A regression model was constructed to assess learning with this technology and predict total robot time using multiple predictive variables. Statistical analysis was used to determine if models were significantly useful, to rule out correlation between predictor variables, and to identify terms that did not contribute to the prediction of total robot time. We found a statistically significant learning curve (P learning percentage∗ derived from total robot times† for the first 458 recorded cases of mitral valve repair using telemanipulative technology is 95% (R(2) = .40). More than one third of the variability in total robot time can be explained through our model using the following variables: type of repair (chordal procedures, ablations, and leaflet resections), band size, use of clips alone in band implantation, and the presence of a fellow at bedside (P Learning in mitral valve repair surgery using telemanipulative technology occurs at the East Carolina Heart Institute according to a logarithmic curve, with a learning percentage of 95%. From our regression output, we can make an approximate prediction of total robot time using an additive model. These metrics can be used by programs for benchmarking to manage the implementation of this new technology, as well as for capacity planning, scheduling, and capital budget analysis. Copyright © 2011 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  3. Laparoscopy Instructional Videos : The Effect of Preoperative Compared With Intraoperative Use on Learning Curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broekema, Theo H.; Talsma, Aaldert K.; Wevers, Kevin P.; Pierie, Jean-Pierre E. N.

    OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have shown that the use of intraoperative instructional videos has a positive effect on learning laparoscopic procedures. This study investigated the effect of the timing of the instructional videos on learning curves in laparoscopic skills training. DESIGN: After

  4. Non-Constant Learning Rates in Retrospective Experience Curve Analyses and their Correlation to Deployment Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Max [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-07-16

    A key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters is to estimate future technology costs and in particular the rate of cost reduction versus production volume. A related, critical question is what role should state and federal governments have in advancing energy efficient and renewable energy technologies? This work provides retrospective experience curves and learning rates for several energy-related technologies, each of which have a known history of federal and state deployment programs. We derive learning rates for eight technologies including energy efficient lighting technologies, stationary fuel cell systems, and residential solar photovoltaics, and provide an overview and timeline of historical deployment programs such as state and federal standards and state and national incentive programs for each technology. Piecewise linear regimes are observed in a range of technology experience curves, and public investments or deployment programs are found to be strongly correlated to an increase in learning rate across multiple technologies. A downward bend in the experience curve is found in 5 out of the 8 energy-related technologies presented here (electronic ballasts, magnetic ballasts, compact fluorescent lighting, general service fluorescent lighting, and the installed cost of solar PV). In each of the five downward-bending experience curves, we believe that an increase in the learning rate can be linked to deployment programs to some degree. This work sheds light on the endogenous versus exogenous contributions to technological innovation and highlights the impact of exogenous government sponsored deployment programs. This work can inform future policy investment direction and can shed light on market transformation and technology learning behavior.

  5. Diffusion of robotics into clinical practice in the United States: process, patient safety, learning curves, and the public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirheydar, Hossein S; Parsons, J Kellogg

    2013-06-01

    Robotic technology disseminated into urological practice without robust comparative effectiveness data. To review the diffusion of robotic surgery into urological practice. We performed a comprehensive literature review focusing on diffusion patterns, patient safety, learning curves, and comparative costs for robotic radical prostatectomy, partial nephrectomy, and radical cystectomy. Robotic urologic surgery diffused in patterns typical of novel technology spreading among practicing surgeons. Robust evidence-based data comparing outcomes of robotic to open surgery were sparse. Although initial Level 3 evidence for robotic prostatectomy observed complication outcomes similar to open prostatectomy, subsequent population-based Level 2 evidence noted an increased prevalence of adverse patient safety events and genitourinary complications among robotic patients during the early years of diffusion. Level 2 evidence indicated comparable to improved patient safety outcomes for robotic compared to open partial nephrectomy and cystectomy. Learning curve recommendations for robotic urologic surgery have drawn exclusively on Level 4 evidence and subjective, non-validated metrics. The minimum number of cases required to achieve competency for robotic prostatectomy has increased to unrealistically high levels. Most comparative cost-analyses have demonstrated that robotic surgery is significantly more expensive than open or laparoscopic surgery. Evidence-based data are limited but suggest an increased prevalence of adverse patient safety events for robotic prostatectomy early in the national diffusion period. Learning curves for robotic urologic surgery are subjective and based on non-validated metrics. The urological community should develop rigorous, evidence-based processes by which future technological innovations may diffuse in an organized and safe manner.

  6. Learning Curve for Seawater Reverse Osmosis Desalination Plants: Capital Cost Trend of the Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldera, Upeksha; Breyer, Christian

    2017-12-01

    Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination is expected to play a pivotal role in helping to secure future global water supply. While the global reliance on SWRO plants for water security increases, there is no consensus on how the capital costs of SWRO plants will vary in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyze the past trends of the SWRO capital expenditures (capex) as the historic global cumulative online SWRO capacity increases, based on the learning curve concept. The SWRO capex learning curve is found based on 4,237 plants that came online from 1977 to 2015. A learning rate of 15% is determined, implying that the SWRO capex reduced by 15% when the cumulative capacity was doubled. Based on SWRO capacity annual growth rates of 10% and 20%, by 2030, the global average capex of SWRO plants is found to fall to 1,580 USD/(m3/d) and 1,340 USD/(m3/d), respectively. A learning curve for SWRO capital costs has not been presented previously. This research highlights the potential for decrease in SWRO capex with the increase in installation of SWRO plants and the value of the learning curve approach to estimate future SWRO capex.

  7. The learning curve of laparoscopic holecystectomy in general surgery resident training: old age of the patient may be a risk factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrarese, Alessia; Gentile, Valentina; Bindi, Marco; Rivelli, Matteo; Cumbo, Jacopo; Solej, Mario; Enrico, Stefano; Martino, Valter

    2016-01-01

    A well-designed learning curve is essential for the acquisition of laparoscopic skills: but, are there risk factors that can derail the surgical method? From a review of the current literature on the learning curve in laparoscopic surgery, we identified learning curve components in video laparoscopic cholecystectomy; we suggest a learning curve model that can be applied to assess the progress of general surgical residents as they learn and master the stages of video laparoscopic cholecystectomy regardless of type of patient. Electronic databases were interrogated to better define the terms "surgeon", "specialized surgeon", and "specialist surgeon"; we surveyed the literature on surgical residency programs outside Italy to identify learning curve components, influential factors, the importance of tutoring, and the role of reference centers in residency education in surgery. From the definition of acceptable error, self-efficacy, and error classification, we devised a learning curve model that may be applied to training surgical residents in video laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Based on the criteria culled from the literature, the three surgeon categories (general, specialized, and specialist) are distinguished by years of experience, case volume, and error rate; the patients were distinguished for years and characteristics. The training model was constructed as a series of key learning steps in video laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Potential errors were identified and the difficulty of each step was graded using operation-specific characteristics. On completion of each procedure, error checklist scores on procedure-specific performance are tallied to track the learning curve and obtain performance indices of measurement that chart the trainee's progress. The concept of the learning curve in general surgery is disputed. The use of learning steps may enable the resident surgical trainee to acquire video laparoscopic cholecystectomy skills proportional to the instructor

  8. Huang's three-step maneuver shortens the learning curve of laparoscopic spleen-preserving splenic hilar lymphadenectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chang-Ming; Huang, Ze-Ning; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Jun, Lu; Chen, Qi-Yue; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong

    2017-12-01

    The goal of this study was to investigate the difference between the learning curves of different maneuvers in laparoscopic spleen-preserving splenic hilar lymphadenectomy for advanced upper gastric cancer. From January 2010 to April 2014, 53 consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic spleen-preserving splenic hilar lymphadenectomy via the traditional-step maneuver (group A) and 53 consecutive patients via Huang's three-step maneuver (group B) were retrospectively analyzed. No significant difference in patient characteristics were found between the two groups. The learning curves of groups A and B were divided into phase 1 (1-43 cases and 1-30 cases, respectively) and phase 2 (44-53 cases and 31-53 cases, respectively). Compared with group A, the dissection time, bleeding loss and vascular injury were significantly decreased in group B. No significant differences in short-term outcomes were found between the two maneuvers. The multivariate analysis indicated that the body mass index, short gastric vessels, splenic artery type and maneuver were significantly associated with the dissection time in group B. No significant difference in the survival curve was found between the maneuvers. The learning curve of Huang's three-step maneuver was shorter than that of the traditional-step maneuver, and the former represents an ideal maneuver for laparoscopic spleen-preserving splenic hilar lymphadenectomy.To shorten the learning curve at the beginning of laparoscopic spleen-preserving splenic hilar lymphadenectomy, beginners should beneficially use Huang's three-step maneuver and select patients with advanced upper gastric cancer with a body mass index of less than 25 kg/m 2 and the concentrated type of splenic artery. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. A New Proposal for Learning Curve of TEP Inguinal Hernia Repair: Ability to Complete Operation Endoscopically as a First Phase of Learning Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Hasbahceci

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The exact nature of learning curve of totally extraperitoneal inguinal hernia and the number required to master this technique remain controversial. Patients and Methods. We present a retrospective review of a single surgeon experience on patients who underwent totally extraperitoneal inguinal hernia repair. Results. There were 42 hernias (22 left- and 20 right-sided in 39 patients with a mean age of 48.8±15.1 years. Indirect, direct, and combined hernias were present in 18, 12, and 12 cases, respectively. The mean operative time was 55.1±22.8 minutes. Peritoneal injury occurred in 9 cases (21.4%. Conversion to open surgery was necessitated in 7 cases (16.7%. After grouping of all patients into two groups as cases between 1–21 and 22–42, it was seen that the majority of peritoneal injuries (7 out of 9, 77.8%, P=0.130 and all conversions (P=0.001 occurred in the first 21 cases. Conclusions. Learning curve of totally extraperitoneal inguinal hernia repair can be divided into two consequent steps: immediate and late. At least 20 operations are required for gaining anatomical knowledge and surgical pitfalls based on the ability to perform this operation without conversion during immediate phase.

  10. Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sungjun; Chung, Yanghon; Woo, Chungwon

    2015-01-01

    South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R and D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R and D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R and D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R and D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R and D investment was around 20%. - Highlights: • We analyze the learning effects of photovoltaic energy technology in Korea. • In order to calculate the learning rate, we use 1FLC (one-factor learning curve) and 2FLC methods, respectively. • 1FLC method considers only the cumulative power generation. • 2FLC method considers both cumulative power generation and knowledge stock. • We analyze a variety of scenarios by time lag and depreciation rate of R and D investment

  11. Learning Curve Analysis and Surgical Outcomes of Single-port Laparoscopic Myomectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hee Jun; Kim, Ju Yeong; Kim, Seul Ki; Lee, Jung Ryeol; Suh, Chang Suk; Kim, Seok Hyun

    2015-01-01

    To identify learning curves for single-port laparoscopic myomectomy (SPLM) and evaluate surgical outcomes according to the sequence of operation. A retrospective study. A university-based hospital (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). The medical records from 205 patients who had undergone SPLM from October 2009 to May 2013 were reviewed. Because the myomectomy time was significantly affected by the size and number of myomas removed by SPLM, cases in which 2 or more of the myomas removed were >7 cm in diameter were excluded. Furthermore, cases involving additional operations performed simultaneously (e.g., ovarian or hysteroscopic surgery) were also excluded. A total of 161 cases of SPLM were included. None. We assessed the SPLM learning curve via a graph based on operation time versus sequence of cases. Patients were chronologically arranged according to their surgery dates and were then placed into 1 of 4 groups according to their operation sequence. SPLM was completed successfully in 160 of 161 cases (99.4%). One case was converted to multiport surgery. Basal characteristics of the patients between the 4 groups did not differ. The median operation times for the 4 groups were 112.0, 92.8, 83.7, and 90.0 minutes, respectively. Operation time decreased significantly in the second, third, and fourth groups compared with that in the first group (p learning curve became less steep, was evident after about 45 operations. Results from the current study suggested that proficiency for SPLM was achieved after about 45 operations. Additionally, operation time decreased with experience without an increase in complication rate. Copyright © 2015 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Displays mounted on cutting blocks reduce the learning curve in navigated total knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnurr, Christoph; Eysel, Peer; König, Dietmar Pierre

    2011-01-01

    The use of computer navigation in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) improves the implant alignment but increases the operation time. Studies have shown that the operation time is further prolonged due to the surgeon's learning curve, and longer operation times have been associated with higher morbidity risks. It has been our hypothesis that an improvement in the human-machine interface might reduce the time required during the learning curve. Accordingly, we asked whether the use of navigation devices with a display fixed on the surgical instruments would reduce the operation time in navigated TKAs performed by navigation beginners. Thirty medical students were randomized and used two navigation devices in rotation: these were the Kolibri® device with an external display and the Dash® device with a display that was fixed on the cutting blocks. The time for adjustment of the tibial and femoral cutting blocks on knee models while using these devices was measured. A significant time reduction was demonstration when the Dash® device was used: The time reduction was 21% for the tibial block (p = 0.007), 40% for the femoral block (p learning curve may be diminished.

  13. Shallow Transits—Deep Learning. I. Feasibility Study of Deep Learning to Detect Periodic Transits of Exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucker, Shay; Giryes, Raja

    2018-04-01

    Transits of habitable planets around solar-like stars are expected to be shallow, and to have long periods, which means low information content. The current bottleneck in the detection of such transits is caused in large part by the presence of red (correlated) noise in the light curves obtained from the dedicated space telescopes. Based on the groundbreaking results deep learning achieves in many signal and image processing applications, we propose to use deep neural networks to solve this problem. We present a feasibility study, in which we applied a convolutional neural network on a simulated training set. The training set comprised light curves received from a hypothetical high-cadence space-based telescope. We simulated the red noise by using Gaussian Processes with a wide variety of hyper-parameters. We then tested the network on a completely different test set simulated in the same way. Our study proves that very difficult cases can indeed be detected. Furthermore, we show how detection trends can be studied and detection biases quantified. We have also checked the robustness of the neural-network performance against practical artifacts such as outliers and discontinuities, which are known to affect space-based high-cadence light curves. Future work will allow us to use the neural networks to characterize the transit model and identify individual transits. This new approach will certainly be an indispensable tool for the detection of habitable planets in the future planet-detection space missions such as PLATO.

  14. A retrospective analysis of compact fluorescent lamp experience curves and their correlations to deployment programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Sarah Josephine; Wei, Max; Sohn, Michael D.

    2016-01-01

    Experience curves are useful for understanding technology development and can aid in the design and analysis of market transformation programs. Here, we employ a novel approach to create experience curves, to examine both global and North American compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) data for the years 1990–2007. We move away from the prevailing method of fitting a single, constant, exponential curve to data and instead search for break points where changes in the learning rate may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a learning rate of approximately 21% for the period of 1990–1997, and 51% and 79% in global and North American datasets, respectively, after 1998. We use price data for this analysis; therefore our learning rates encompass developments beyond typical “learning by doing”, including supply chain impacts such as market competition. We examine correlations between North American learning rates and the initiation of new programs, abrupt technological advances, and economic and political events, and find an increased learning rate associated with design advancements and federal standards programs. Our findings support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective technology analysis, and may imply that investments in technology programs have contributed to an increase of the CFL learning rate. - Highlights: • We develop a segmented regression technique to estimate historical CFL learning curves. • CFL experience curves do not have a constant learning rate. • CFLs exhibited a learning rate of approximately 21% from 1990 to 1997. • The CFL learning rate significantly increased after 1998. • Increased CFL learning rate is correlated to technology deployment programs.

  15. The learning curve of laparoendoscopic single-site (LESS) cholecystectomy: definable, short, and safe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Jonathan; Ross, Sharona; Morton, Connor; McFarlin, Kellie; Dahal, Sujat; Golkar, Farhaad; Albrink, Michael; Rosemurgy, Alexander

    2010-11-01

    The applications of laparoendoscopic single-site (LESS) surgery, including cholecystectomy, are occurring quickly, although little is generally known about issues associated with the learning curve of this new technique including operative time, conversion rates, and safety. We prospectively followed all patients undergoing LESS cholecystectomy, and compared operations undertaken at our institutions in cohorts of 25 patients with respect to operative times, conversion rates, and complications. One-hundred fifty patients of mean age 46 years underwent LESS cholecystectomy. No significant differences in operative times were demonstrable between any of the 25-patient cohorts operated on at our institution. A significant reduction in operative times (p < 0.001) after completion of 75 LESS procedures was, however, identified with the experience of a single surgeon. No significant reduction in the number of procedures requiring an additional trocar(s) or conversion to open operations was observed after completion of 25 LESS cholecystectomies. Complication rates were low, and not significantly different between any 25-patient cohorts. For surgeons proficient with multi-incision laparoscopic cholecystectomy, the learning curve for LESS cholecystectomy begins near proficiency. Operative complications and conversions were infrequent and unchanged across successive 25-patient cohorts, and were similar to those reported for multi-incision laparoscopic cholecystectomy after the learning curve. Copyright © 2010 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Application of the Learning Curve Analysis to the LHC Main Dipole Production First Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Fessia, P; Rossi, L

    2006-01-01

    About two third of the LHC main dipoles have been delivered by the three suppliers charged of the production. The training of the staff, mostly hired just for this manufacture, and the natural improvement of the procedures with the acquired experience, decrease naturally the time necessary for the assembly of a unit. The aim of this paper is to apply methodologies like the cost-based learning curves and the time-based learning curves to the LHC Main Dipole comparing the estimated learning percentage to the ones experienced in other industries. This type of analysis, still in a preliminary phase and here applied to about 40% of the total production of the LHC magnets that will end by 2006, shows that our production has a relatively high learning percentage and it is similar to aerospace and complex machine tools for new models. Therefore with the LHC project, accelerator magnets seem to have reached industrial maturity and this production can be used as bench mark for other large scientific projects implying s...

  17. Learning Curves and Bootstrap Estimates for Inference with Gaussian Processes: A Statistical Mechanics Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malzahn, Dorthe; Opper, Manfred

    2003-01-01

    We employ the replica method of statistical physics to study the average case performance of learning systems. The new feature of our theory is that general distributions of data can be treated, which enables applications to real data. For a class of Bayesian prediction models which are based...... on Gaussian processes, we discuss Bootstrap estimates for learning curves....

  18. Environmental management by the learning curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehr, M.

    2003-01-01

    This is a futuristic appreciation of waste management challenges and their solution by means of good management models. A literature review, administrative initiatives, research results, and experiences from practice are combined in this study to render an evolutionary picture of the change in paradigm relative to municipal solid waste possible to occur between 2000 and 2025. The principal stages of progress in the 25 years studied were: the correct characterization of municipal solid waste as a function of geographical location and recycling potential, the divided collection model and its corresponding learning curve, correct opportunity cost accounting tools, and the generally admitted and accepted changeover of municipal solid waste treatment from a technical to a management problem. It is reported that as a result of this progress, the municipal landfill is a species in extinction. Regional landfills with long life spans are the rule in 2025

  19. Defining the learning curve of laparoendoscopic single-site Heller myotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Sharona B; Luberice, Kenneth; Kurian, Tony J; Paul, Harold; Rosemurgy, Alexander S

    2013-08-01

    Initial outcomes suggest laparoendoscopic single-site (LESS) Heller myotomy with anterior fundoplication provides safe, efficacious, and cosmetically superior outcomes relative to conventional laparoscopy. This study was undertaken to define the learning curve of LESS Heller myotomy with anterior fundoplication. One hundred patients underwent LESS Heller myotomy with anterior fundoplication. Symptom frequency and severity were scored using a Likert scale (0 = never/not bothersome to 10 = always/very bothersome). Symptom resolution, additional trocars, and complications were compared among patient quartiles. Median data are presented. Preoperative frequency/severity scores were: dysphagia = 10/8 and regurgitation = 8/7. Additional trocars were placed in 12 patients (10%), of whom all were in the first two quartiles. Esophagotomy/gastrotomy occurred in three patients. Postoperative complications occurred in 9 per cent. No conversions to "open" operations occurred. Length of stay was 1 day. Postoperative frequency/severity scores were: dysphagia = 2/0 and regurgitation = 0/0; scores were less than before myotomy (P Heller myotomy with anterior fundoplication well palliates symptoms of achalasia with no apparent scar. Placement of additional trocars only occurred early in the experience. For surgeons proficient with the conventional laparoscopic approach, the learning curve of LESS Heller myotomy with anterior fundoplication is short and safe, because proficiency is quickly attained.

  20. Laparoscopic colorectal surgery in learning curve: Role of implementation of a standardized technique and recovery protocol. A cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Luglio

    2015-06-01

    Conclusion: Proper laparoscopic colorectal surgery is safe and leads to excellent results in terms of recovery and short term outcomes, even in a learning curve setting. Key factors for better outcomes and shortening the learning curve seem to be the adoption of a standardized technique and training model along with the strict supervision of an expert colorectal surgeon.

  1. Evaluation of learning curves for ovariohysterectomy of dogs and cats and castration of dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Lynetta J; Ferguson, Nancy; Fellenstein, Carol; Johnson, Ron; Constable, Peter D

    2017-08-01

    OBJECTIVE To define learning curves for fourth-year veterinary students performing ovariohysterectomy procedures in dogs and cats and castration in dogs. DESIGN Retrospective study. SAMPLE 3,196 ovariohysterectomies or castrations performed in dogs and cats by 88 veterinary students during a spay-neuter surgery and animal shelter rotation (n = 3,056) or by 1 experienced general practitioner (n = 140). PROCEDURES Data collected from medical records included patient signalment, type and duration of procedure, and sequence (by date and time) of the procedure within a list of procedures of the same type generated for each student. For each procedure type, geometric mean surgery time and 95% confidence intervals were determined for each number of surgeries completed by ≥ 10 students. Median surgery times for the same procedure types were determined for the experienced practitioner. The learning curve for each procedure was modeled with nonlinear (3-factor exponential equation with a nonzero asymptote) and linear regression. For each procedure, the asymptote (optimal surgery time) for students was compared with the experienced practitioner's median surgery time. RESULTS 2,945 surgeries (mean, 33/student) performed by ≥ 10 students were analyzed. Surgery time decreased in a nonlinear manner as student experience increased for castration of adult or pediatric dogs and ovariohysterectomy of pediatric dogs and adult or pediatric cats. Surgery time decreased in a linear manner as experience increased for ovariohysterectomy of adult dogs. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE To the authors' knowledge, this was the first study to map surgery times for common surgical procedures consecutively performed by veterinary students. Results clearly indicated the value of repetition to improve surgical skills (as measured by surgery time) during a 3-week period.

  2. Systematic review of learning curves for minimally invasive abdominal surgery: a review of the methodology of data collection, depiction of outcomes, and statistical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrysson, Iliana J; Cook, Jonathan; Sirimanna, Pramudith; Feldman, Liane S; Darzi, Ara; Aggarwal, Rajesh

    2014-07-01

    To determine how minimally invasive surgical learning curves are assessed and define an ideal framework for this assessment. Learning curves have implications for training and adoption of new procedures and devices. In 2000, a review of the learning curve literature was done by Ramsay et al and it called for improved reporting and statistical evaluation of learning curves. Since then, a body of literature is emerging on learning curves but the presentation and analysis vary. A systematic search was performed of MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, ERIC, and the Cochrane Library from 1985 to August 2012. The inclusion criteria are minimally invasive abdominal surgery formally analyzing the learning curve and English language. 592 (11.1%) of the identified studies met the selection criteria. Time is the most commonly used proxy for the learning curve (508, 86%). Intraoperative outcomes were used in 316 (53%) of the articles, postoperative outcomes in 306 (52%), technical skills in 102 (17%), and patient-oriented outcomes in 38 (6%) articles. Over time, there was evidence of an increase in the relative amount of laparoscopic and robotic studies (P statistical evidence of a change in the complexity of analysis (P = 0.121). Assessment of learning curves is needed to inform surgical training and evaluate new clinical procedures. An ideal analysis would account for the degree of complexity of individual cases and the inherent differences between surgeons. There is no single proxy that best represents the success of surgery, and hence multiple outcomes should be collected.

  3. The learning curve of robot-assisted laparoscopic aortofemoral bypass grafting for aortoiliac occlusive disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novotný, Tomáš; Dvorák, Martin; Staffa, Robert

    2011-02-01

    Since the end of the 20th century, robot-assisted surgery has been finding its role among other minimally invasive methods. Vascular surgery seems to be another specialty in which the benefits of this technology can be expected. Our objective was to assess the learning curve of robot-assisted laparoscopic aortofemoral bypass grafting for aortoiliac occlusive disease in a group of 40 patients. Between May 2006 and January 2010, 40 patients (32 men, 8 women), who were a median age of 58 years (range, 48-75 years), underwent 40 robot-assisted laparoscopic aortofemoral reconstructions. Learning curve estimations were used for anastomosis, clamping, and operative time assessment. For conversion rate evaluation, the cumulative summation (CUSUM) technique was used. Statistical analysis comparing the first and second half of our group, and unilateral-to-bilateral reconstructions were performed. We created 21 aortofemoral and 19 aortobifemoral bypasses. The median proximal anastomosis time was 23 minutes (range, 18-50 minutes), median clamping time was 60 minutes (range, 40-95 minutes), and median operative time was 295 minutes (range, 180-475 minutes). The 30-day mortality rate was 0%, and no graft or wound infection or cardiopulmonary or hepatorenal complications were observed. During the median 18-month follow-up (range, 2-48 months), three early graft occlusions occurred (7%). After reoperations, the secondary patency of reconstructions was 100%. Data showed a typical short learning curve for robotic proximal anastomosis creation with anastomosis and clamping time reduction. The operative time learning curve was flat, confirming the procedure's complexity. There were two conversions to open surgery. CUSUM analysis confirmed that an acceptable conversion rate set at 5% was achieved. Comparing the first and second half of our group, all recorded times showed statistically significant improvements. Differences between unilateral and bilateral reconstructions were not

  4. Overall Memory Impairment Identification with Mathematical Modeling of the CVLT-II Learning Curve in Multiple Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor I. Stepanov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The CVLT-II provides standardized scores for each of the List A five learning trials, so that the clinician can compare the patient's raw trials 1–5 scores with standardized ones. However, frequently, a patient's raw scores fluctuate making a proper interpretation difficult. The CVLT-II does not offer any other methods for classifying a patient's learning and memory status on the background of the learning curve. The main objective of this research is to illustrate that discriminant analysis provides an accurate assessment of the learning curve, if suitable predictor variables are selected. Normal controls were ninety-eight healthy volunteers (78 females and 20 males. A group of MS patients included 365 patients (266 females and 99 males with clinically defined multiple sclerosis. We show that the best predictor variables are coefficients 3 and 4 of our mathematical model 3∗exp(−2∗(−1+4∗(1−exp(−2∗(−1 because discriminant functions, calculated separately for 3 and 4, allow nearly 100% correct classification. These predictors allow identification of separate impairment of readiness to learn or ability to learn, or both.

  5. Does my high blood pressure improve your survival? Overall and subgroup learning curves in health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gestel, Raf; Müller, Tobias; Bosmans, Johan

    2017-09-01

    Learning curves in health are of interest for a wide range of medical disciplines, healthcare providers, and policy makers. In this paper, we distinguish between three types of learning when identifying overall learning curves: economies of scale, learning from cumulative experience, and human capital depreciation. In addition, we approach the question of how treating more patients with specific characteristics predicts provider performance. To soften collinearity problems, we explore the use of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression as a variable selection method and Theil-Goldberger mixed estimation to augment the available information. We use data from the Belgian Transcatheter Aorta Valve Implantation (TAVI) registry, containing information on the first 860 TAVI procedures in Belgium. We find that treating an additional TAVI patient is associated with an increase in the probability of 2-year survival by about 0.16%-points. For adverse events like renal failure and stroke, we find that an extra day between procedures is associated with an increase in the probability for these events by 0.12%-points and 0.07%-points, respectively. Furthermore, we find evidence for positive learning effects from physicians' experience with defibrillation, treating patients with hypertension, and the use of certain types of replacement valves during the TAVI procedure. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Why the Kantian ideal survives medical learning curves, and why it matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecher, B

    2006-09-01

    The "Kantian ideal" is often misunderstood as invoking individual autonomy rather than rational self legislation. Le Morvan and Stock's otherwise insightful discussion of "Medical learning curves and the Kantian ideal"--for example--draws the mistaken inference that that ideal is inconsistent with the realities of medical practice. But it is not. Rationally to be a patient entails accepting its necessary conditions.

  7. Preliminary Results and Learning Curve of the Minimally Invasive Chevron Akin Operation for Hallux Valgus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jowett, Charlie R J; Bedi, Harvinder S

    Minimally invasive surgery is increasing in popularity. It is relevant in hallux valgus surgery owing to the potential for reduced disruption of the soft tissues and improved wound healing. We present our results and assess the learning curve of the minimally invasive Chevron Akin operation for hallux valgus. A total of 120 consecutive feet underwent minimally invasive Chevron Akin for symptomatic hallux valgus, of which 14 were excluded. They were followed up for a mean of 25 (range 18 to 38) months. The patients were clinically assessed using the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society score. Complications and patient satisfaction were recorded. The radiographs were analyzed and measurements recorded for hallux valgus and intermetatarsal angle correction. The mean age of the patients undergoing surgery was 55 (range 25 to 81) years. Of the 78 patients, 76 (97.4%) were female and 2 (2.6%) were male; 28 (35.9%) cases were bilateral. The mean American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society score improved from 56 (range 23 to 76) preoperatively to 87 (range 50 to 100) postoperatively (p technique. They display a steep associated learning curve. However, the results are promising, and the learning curve is comparable to that for open hallux valgus surgery. Copyright © 2017 American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Overall Memory Impairment Identification with Mathematical Modeling of the CVLT-II Learning Curve in Multiple Sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanov, Igor I.; Abramson, Charles I.; Hoogs, Marietta; Benedict, Ralph H. B.

    2012-01-01

    The CVLT-II provides standardized scores for each of the List A five learning trials, so that the clinician can compare the patient's raw trials 1–5 scores with standardized ones. However, frequently, a patient's raw scores fluctuate making a proper interpretation difficult. The CVLT-II does not offer any other methods for classifying a patient's learning and memory status on the background of the learning curve. The main objective of this research is to illustrate that discriminant analysis provides an accurate assessment of the learning curve, if suitable predictor variables are selected. Normal controls were ninety-eight healthy volunteers (78 females and 20 males). A group of MS patients included 365 patients (266 females and 99 males) with clinically defined multiple sclerosis. We show that the best predictor variables are coefficients B3 and B4 of our mathematical model B3 ∗ exp(−B2  ∗  (X − 1)) + B4  ∗  (1 − exp(−B2  ∗  (X − 1))) because discriminant functions, calculated separately for B3 and B4, allow nearly 100% correct classification. These predictors allow identification of separate impairment of readiness to learn or ability to learn, or both. PMID:22745911

  9. An application of the learning curve-cumulative summation test to evaluate training for endotracheal intubation in emergency medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Je, Sangmo; Cho, Youngsuk; Choi, Hyuk Joong; Kang, Boseung; Lim, Taeho; Kang, Hyunggoo

    2015-04-01

    The learning curve-cumulative summation (LC-CUSUM) test allows for quantitative and individual assessments of the learning process. In this study, we evaluated the process of skill acquisition for performing endotracheal intubation (ETI) in three emergency medicine (EM) residents over a 2 year period in their first 2 years of their EM residency. We evaluated 342 ETI cases performed by three EM residents using the LC-CUSUM test according to their rate of success or failure of ETI. A 90% success rate (SR) was chosen to define adequate performance and an SR of 80% was considered inadequate. After the learning phase, the standard CUSUM test was applied to ensure that performance was maintained. The mean number of ETI cases required to reach the predefined level of performance was 74.7 (95% CI 62.0 to 87.3). CUSUM tests confirmed that performance was maintained after the learning phase. By using the LC-CUSUM test, we were able to quantitatively monitor the acquisition of the skill of ETI by EM residents. The LC-CUSUM could be useful for monitoring the learning process for the training of airway management in the practice of EM. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  10. Learning curve of hysteroscopic placement of tubal sterilization microinserts in 15 gynecologists in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janse, Juliënne A; Pattij, Thyrza O S; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Broekmans, Frank J; Veersema, Sebastiaan; Schreuder, Henk W R

    2013-09-01

    To evaluate the learning curve of hysteroscopic placement of tubal sterilization microinserts by gynecologists in the Netherlands. Prospective multicenter study (Canadian Task Force II-2). Ten community (teaching) hospitals in the Netherlands. A total of 631 women who underwent permanent sterilization by tubal microinserts. Hysteroscopic placement of tubal sterilization microinserts performed by 15 gynecologists experienced in performing operative hysteroscopy, starting from their very first placement. Effect of increasing experience in time on procedure time, pain score, successful bilateral placement, and complications. Bilateral successful placement with confirmation of adequate positioning at follow-up evaluation was achieved in 480 (76.1%) patients at first attempt and in 44 (7.0%) at second attempt. Median procedure time was 8.0 minutes (range: 3-40), and 31 (4.9%) patients were lost to follow-up evaluation. Gravidity showed to be a confounding factor and was consequently adjusted for. A learning curve was seen in a statistically significant decrease of procedure time with increasing experience. The decrease in procedure time extended to 11 to 15 cases and was followed by a plateau phase of the subsequent 60 cases. In contrast, pain scores, successful placement, and complication rate appeared not to improve with increasing experience. A learning curve for hysteroscopic tubal sterilization was seen for procedure time, but successful placement, pain score, and complication rate were not clearly influenced by increasing experience. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. CSI 2264: CHARACTERIZING YOUNG STARS IN NGC 2264 WITH SHORT-DURATION PERIODIC FLUX DIPS IN THEIR LIGHT CURVES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, John; Cody, Ann Marie; Rebull, Luisa; Plavchan, Peter; Carey, Sean [Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); McGinnis, Pauline; Alencar, Silvia H. P. [Departamento de Física—ICEx—UFMG, Av. Antônio Carlos, 6627, 30270-901, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Carpenter, John [Astronomy Department, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Turner, Neal J. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Terebey, Susan [Department of Physics and Astronomy, 5151 State University Drive, California State University at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90032 (United States); Morales-Calderón, María [Centro de Astrobiología, Dpto. de Astrofísica, INTA-CSIC, PO BOX 78, E-28691, ESAC Campus, Villanueva de la Cañada, Madrid (Spain); Bouvier, Jerome; Venuti, Laura [Université de Grenoble, Institut de Planétologie et d’Astrophysique de Grenoble (IPAG), F-38000 Grenoble (France); CNRS, IPAG, F-38000 Grenoble (France); Hartmann, Lee; Calvet, Nuria [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 500 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (United States); Micela, Giusi; Flaccomio, Ettore [INAF—Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo, Piazza del Parlamento 1, I-90134, Palermo (Italy); Song, Inseok [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602–2451 (United States); Gutermuth, Rob, E-mail: stauffer@ipac.caltech.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); and others

    2015-04-15

    We identify nine young stellar objects (YSOs) in the NGC 2264 star-forming region with optical CoRoT light curves exhibiting short-duration, shallow periodic flux dips. All of these stars have infrared excesses that are consistent with their having inner disk walls near the Keplerian co-rotation radius. The repeating photometric dips have FWHMs generally less than 1 day, depths almost always less than 15%, and periods (3 < P < 11 days) consistent with dust near the Keplerian co-rotation period. The flux dips vary considerably in their depth from epoch to epoch, but usually persist for several weeks and, in two cases, were present in data collected in successive years. For several of these stars, we also measure the photospheric rotation period and find that the rotation and dip periods are the same, as predicted by standard “disk-locking” models. We attribute these flux dips to clumps of material in or near the inner disk wall, passing through our line of sight to the stellar photosphere. In some cases, these dips are also present in simultaneous Spitzer IRAC light curves at 3.6 and 4.5 microns. We characterize the properties of these dips, and compare the stars with light curves exhibiting this behavior to other classes of YSOs in NGC 2264. A number of physical mechanisms could locally increase the dust scale height near the inner disk wall, and we discuss several of those mechanisms; the most plausible mechanisms are either a disk warp due to interaction with the stellar magnetic field or dust entrained in funnel-flow accretion columns arising near the inner disk wall.

  12. CSI 2264: CHARACTERIZING YOUNG STARS IN NGC 2264 WITH SHORT-DURATION PERIODIC FLUX DIPS IN THEIR LIGHT CURVES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauffer, John; Cody, Ann Marie; Rebull, Luisa; Plavchan, Peter; Carey, Sean; McGinnis, Pauline; Alencar, Silvia H. P.; Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Carpenter, John; Turner, Neal J.; Terebey, Susan; Morales-Calderón, María; Bouvier, Jerome; Venuti, Laura; Hartmann, Lee; Calvet, Nuria; Micela, Giusi; Flaccomio, Ettore; Song, Inseok; Gutermuth, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We identify nine young stellar objects (YSOs) in the NGC 2264 star-forming region with optical CoRoT light curves exhibiting short-duration, shallow periodic flux dips. All of these stars have infrared excesses that are consistent with their having inner disk walls near the Keplerian co-rotation radius. The repeating photometric dips have FWHMs generally less than 1 day, depths almost always less than 15%, and periods (3 < P < 11 days) consistent with dust near the Keplerian co-rotation period. The flux dips vary considerably in their depth from epoch to epoch, but usually persist for several weeks and, in two cases, were present in data collected in successive years. For several of these stars, we also measure the photospheric rotation period and find that the rotation and dip periods are the same, as predicted by standard “disk-locking” models. We attribute these flux dips to clumps of material in or near the inner disk wall, passing through our line of sight to the stellar photosphere. In some cases, these dips are also present in simultaneous Spitzer IRAC light curves at 3.6 and 4.5 microns. We characterize the properties of these dips, and compare the stars with light curves exhibiting this behavior to other classes of YSOs in NGC 2264. A number of physical mechanisms could locally increase the dust scale height near the inner disk wall, and we discuss several of those mechanisms; the most plausible mechanisms are either a disk warp due to interaction with the stellar magnetic field or dust entrained in funnel-flow accretion columns arising near the inner disk wall

  13. Automated Blazar Light Curves Using Machine Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Spencer James [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-07-27

    This presentation describes a problem and methodology pertaining to automated blazar light curves. Namely, optical variability patterns for blazars require the construction of light curves and in order to generate the light curves, data must be filtered before processing to ensure quality.

  14. [Evaluation of the learning curve of residents in localizing a phantom target with ultrasonography].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessieux, T; Estebe, J-P; Bloc, S; Mercadal, L; Ecoffey, C

    2008-10-01

    Few information are available regarding the learning curve in ultrasonography and even less for ultrasound-guided regional anesthesia. This study aimed to evaluate in a training program the learning curve on a phantom of 12 residents novice in ultrasonography. Twelve trainees inexperienced in ultrasonography were given introductory training consisting of didactic formation on the various components of the portable ultrasound machine (i.e. on/off button, gain, depth, resolution, and image storage). Then, students performed three trials, in two sets of increased difficulty, at executing these predefined tasks: adjustments of the machine, then localization of a small plastic piece introduced into roasting pork (3 cm below the surface). At the end of the evaluation, the residents were asked to insert a 22 G needle into an exact predetermined target (i.e. point of fascia intersection). The progression of the needle was continuously controlled by ultrasound visualization using injection of a small volume of water (needle perpendicular to the longitudinal plane of the ultrasound beam). Two groups of two different examiners evaluated for each three trials the skill of the residents (quality, time to perform the machine adjustments, to localize the plastic target, and to hydrolocalize, and volume used for hydrolocalization). After each trial, residents evaluated their performance using a difficulty scale (0: easy to 10: difficult). All residents performed the adjustments from the last trial of each set, with a learning curve observed in terms of duration. Localization of the plastic piece was achieved by all residents at the 6th trial, with a shorter duration of localization. Hydrolocalization was achieved after the 4th trial by all subjects. Difficulty scale was correlated to the number of trials. All these results were independent of the experience of residents in regional anesthesia. Four trials were necessary to adjust correctly the machine, to localize a target, and to

  15. Utility of Interobserver Agreement Statistics in Establishing Radiology Resident Learning Curves During Self-directed Radiologic Anatomy Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tureli, Derya; Altas, Hilal; Cengic, Ismet; Ekinci, Gazanfer; Baltacioglu, Feyyaz

    2015-10-01

    The aim of the study was to ascertain the learning curves for the radiology residents when first introduced to an anatomic structure in magnetic resonance images (MRI) to which they have not been previously exposed to. The iliolumbar ligament is a good marker for testing learning curves of radiology residents because the ligament is not part of a routine lumbar MRI reporting and has high variability in detection. Four radiologists, three residents without previous training and one mentor, studied standard axial T1- and T2-weighted images of routine lumbar MRI examinations. Radiologists had to define iliolumbar ligament while blinded to each other's findings. Interobserver agreement analyses, namely Cohen and Fleiss κ statistics, were performed for groups of 20 cases to evaluate the self-learning curve of radiology residents. Mean κ values of resident-mentor pairs were 0.431, 0.608, 0.604, 0.826, and 0.963 in the analysis of successive groups (P 0.8). Therefore, a junior radiology resident can obtain enough experience in identifying a rather ambiguous anatomic structure in routine MRI after a brief instruction of a few minutes by a mentor and studying approximately 80 cases by oneself. Implementing this methodology will help radiology educators obtain more concrete ideas on the optimal time and effort required for supported self-directed visual learning processes in resident education. Copyright © 2015 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Optimizing area under the ROC curve using semi-supervised learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shijun; Li, Diana; Petrick, Nicholas; Sahiner, Berkman; Linguraru, Marius George; Summers, Ronald M

    2015-01-01

    Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a standard methodology to evaluate the performance of a binary classification system. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a performance metric that summarizes how well a classifier separates two classes. Traditional AUC optimization techniques are supervised learning methods that utilize only labeled data (i.e., the true class is known for all data) to train the classifiers. In this work, inspired by semi-supervised and transductive learning, we propose two new AUC optimization algorithms hereby referred to as semi-supervised learning receiver operating characteristic (SSLROC) algorithms, which utilize unlabeled test samples in classifier training to maximize AUC. Unlabeled samples are incorporated into the AUC optimization process, and their ranking relationships to labeled positive and negative training samples are considered as optimization constraints. The introduced test samples will cause the learned decision boundary in a multidimensional feature space to adapt not only to the distribution of labeled training data, but also to the distribution of unlabeled test data. We formulate the semi-supervised AUC optimization problem as a semi-definite programming problem based on the margin maximization theory. The proposed methods SSLROC1 (1-norm) and SSLROC2 (2-norm) were evaluated using 34 (determined by power analysis) randomly selected datasets from the University of California, Irvine machine learning repository. Wilcoxon signed rank tests showed that the proposed methods achieved significant improvement compared with state-of-the-art methods. The proposed methods were also applied to a CT colonography dataset for colonic polyp classification and showed promising results.

  17. Periods and light curves of 16 Cepheid variables in IC 1613 not completed by Baade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, G.; Sandage, A.

    1990-01-01

    New periods and light curves are presented for 16 of the faintest Cepheids in IC 1613 which had not been finished by Baade. Magnitudes have been reduced to Freedman's new photometric scale. The P-L relation is extended to periods of 2 days using these new data. Comparison of the total Cepheid data now available in IC 1613 with the data in LMC shows no significant slope difference in the two P-L relations for periods of less than 10 days despite the lower metallicity of the young stars in IC 1613. Fifty new faint Cepheid candidates have been found in IC 1613 by blinking plates not used for this purpose by Baade. Most of these stars will have probable periods of less than 2 days, which will eventually permit an extension of the P-L relation in IC 1613 to fainter magnitudes when the photometry and period determinations are completed. 18 refs

  18. Bypassing the learning curve in permanent seed implants using state-of-the-art technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaulieu, Luc; Evans, Dee-Ann Radford; Aubin, Sylviane; Angyalfi, Steven; Husain, Siraj; Kay, Ian; Martin, Andre-Guy; Varfalvy, Nicolas; Vigneault, Eric; Dunscombe, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to demonstrate, based on clinical postplan dose distributions, that technology can be used efficiently to eliminate the learning curve associated with permanent seed implant planning and delivery. Methods and Materials: Dose distributions evaluated 30 days after the implant of the initial 22 consecutive patients treated with permanent seed implants at two institutions were studied. Institution 1 (I1) consisted of a new team, whereas institution 2 (I2) had performed more than 740 preplanned implantations over a 9-year period before the study. Both teams had adopted similar integrated systems based on three-dimensional (3D) transrectal ultrasonography, intraoperative dosimetry, and an automated seed delivery and needle retraction system (FIRST, Nucletron). Procedure time and dose volume histogram parameters such as D90, V100, V150, V200, and others were collected in the operating room and at 30 days postplan. Results: The average target coverage from the intraoperative plan (V100) was 99.4% for I1 and 99.9% for I2. D90, V150, and V200 were 191.4 Gy (196.3 Gy), 75.3% (73.0%), and 37.5% (34.1%) for I1 (I2) respectively. None of these parameters shows a significant difference between institutions. The postplan D90 was 151.2 Gy for I1 and 167.3 Gy for I2, well above the 140 Gy from the Stock et al. analysis, taking into account differences at planning, results in a p value of 0.0676. The procedure time required on average 174.4 min for I1 and 89 min for I2. The time was found to decrease with the increasing number of patients. Conclusion: State-of-the-art technology enables a new brachytherapy team to obtain excellent postplan dose distributions, similar to those achieved by an experienced team with proven long-term clinical results. The cost for bypassing the usual dosimetry learning curve is time, with increasing team experience resulting in shorter treatment times

  19. Learning from uncertain curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mallasto, Anton; Feragen, Aasa

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a novel framework for statistical analysis of populations of nondegenerate Gaussian processes (GPs), which are natural representations of uncertain curves. This allows inherent variation or uncertainty in function-valued data to be properly incorporated in the population analysis. Us...

  20. Learning Curve Characteristics for Caesarean Section Among Associate Clinicians : A Prospective Study from Sierra Leone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waalewijn, B.P.; van Duinen, A.; Koroma, A. P.; Rijken, M. J.; Elhassein, M.; Bolkan, H. A.

    2017-01-01

    Background: In response to the high maternal mortality ratio, Sierra Leone has adopted an associate clinician postgraduate surgical task-sharing training programme. Little is known about learning curve characteristics for caesarean sections among associate clinicians. The aim of this study is to

  1. The most enjoyable way to learn the periodic table

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gümüşsoy, Verim; Kaya, Mustafa

    2017-04-01

    Constructivist learning allows students to be actively involved in the learning process and thus the learning to be permanent. It makes the lesson more interesting and enjoyable compared to classical learning where students are passive and get bored quickly. When students engage in activities during the learning process, they enjoy it more. And there is no doubt that games help this a lot. In this project, a game has been designed to make it more entertaining to learn the periodical table for the students. In this game, a huge periodical table (with empty columns) is drawn with acrylic paint in the school yard. Acrylic paint is preferred because it is resilient to outdoor conditions, quick drying and relatively durable. Besides its functionality in the game, the presence of the huge periodical table in the yard boosts students' motivation for scientific activities. Students are taught about the periodical table in their Chemistry lesson a week before the game is to be played. They are informed about the game and asked to bring some sportswear to wear during the game. On the game day, the class is divided into teams of five people. Each team wears a different color vest and is called by the color of the vest they are wearing. The starting point is drawn as far as possible from the periodical table. Furthermore, some question cards that cover the subject are used in the game. As an example from the game: one student from each team is asked to find the correct place by the atomic number of a certain element as described in the cards given to them. There is a time limit so the stopwatch is started as each student starts reading the information on the card. The student runs to the correct place of the certain element according to the clues on their given card. Then they stop and raise their hands. The teacher stops the stopwatch for that student. The teams gain points according to their speed and correct guesses. The game continues as other students are given different

  2. Archeointensities in Greece during the Neolithic period: New insights into material selection and secular variation curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanjat, G.; Aidona, E.; Kondopoulou, D.; Camps, P.; Rathossi, C.; Poidras, T.

    2013-02-01

    Numerous archeomagnetic studies have provided high quality data for both the direction and the intensity of the geomagnetic field, essentially in Europe for the last 10 millennia. In particular, Greece supplies a lot of archeological materials due to its impressive cultural heritage and volcanic activity, so that numerous data have been obtained from burnt clays or historical lava flows. The most recent Greek secular variation curves are available for the last 8 millennia for the intensity and the last 6 millennia for the direction. Nevertheless, the coverage still presents several gaps for periods older than 2500 BC. In an effort to complete the Greek curve and extend it to older times, we present the archeointensity results from three Neolithic settlements in Northern Greece. The samples are of two different natures: burnt structures from Avgi (5250 ± 150 BC) and Vasili (4800 ± 200 BC), as well as ceramics from Dikili Tash (4830 ± 80 BC) and Vasili (4750 ± 250 BC). The samples have been subjected to standard rock magnetic analyses in order to estimate the thermal stability and the domain state of the magnetic carriers before archeointensity measurements. Surprisingly, very few ceramic samples provided reliable archeointensities whereas samples from burnt structures presented a very good success rate. Complementary studies showed that a detailed examination of the matrix color, following archeological information and classification standards can be a decisive test for pre-selection of sherds. In spite of these unsuccessful measurements from ceramics, we obtained an intensity value of 73.5 ± 1.1 μT for Dikili Tash, a higher value than the other data obtained in the same area, during the same period. However we do not have evidences for a technical artefact during the experiment. The burnt structures yielded two reliable archeointensities of 36.1 ± 1.8 μT and 46.6 ± 3.4 μT for Avgi and Vasili, respectively. Finally, we achieved a new archeomagnetic dating

  3. Virtual reality cataract surgery training: learning curves and concurrent validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvander, Madeleine; Åsman, Peter

    2012-08-01

    To investigate initial learning curves on a virtual reality (VR) eye surgery simulator and whether achieved skills are transferable between tasks. Thirty-five medical students were randomized to complete ten iterations on either the VR Caspulorhexis module (group A) or the Cataract navigation training module (group B) and then two iterations on the other module. Learning curves were compared between groups. The second Capsulorhexis video was saved and evaluated with the performance rating tool Objective Structured Assessment of Cataract Surgical Skill (OSACSS). The students' stereoacuity was examined. Both groups demonstrated significant improvements in performance over the 10 iterations: group A for all parameters analysed including score (p < 0.0001), time (p < 0.0001) and corneal damage (p = 0.0003), group B for time (p < 0.0001), corneal damage (p < 0.0001) but not for score (p = 0.752). Training on one module did not improve performance on the other. Capsulorhexis score correlated significantly with evaluation of the videos using the OSACSS performance rating tool. For stereoacuity < and ≥120 seconds of arc, sum of both modules' second iteration score was 73.5 and 41.0, respectively (p = 0.062). An initial rapid improvement in performance on a simulator with repeated practice was shown. For capsulorhexis, 10 iterations with only simulator feedback are not enough to reach a plateau for overall score. Skills transfer between modules was not found suggesting benefits from training on both modules. Stereoacuity may be of importance in the recruitment and training of new cataract surgeons. Additional studies are needed to investigate this further. Concurrent validity was found for Capsulorhexis module. © 2010 The Authors. Acta Ophthalmologica © 2010 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation.

  4. Learning curves of theta/beta neurofeedback in children with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Tieme W P; Bink, Marleen; Weeda, Wouter D; Geladé, Katleen; van Mourik, Rosa; Maras, Athanasios; Oosterlaan, Jaap

    2017-05-01

    Neurofeedback is widely applied as non-pharmacological intervention aimed at reducing symptoms of ADHD, even though efficacy has not been unequivocally established. Neuronal changes during the neurofeedback intervention that resemble learning can provide crucial evidence for the feasibility and specificity of this intervention. A total of 38 children (aged between 7 and 13 years) with a DSM-IV-TR diagnosis of ADHD, completed on average 29 sessions of theta (4-8 Hz)/beta (13-20 Hz) neurofeedback training. Dependent variables included training-related measures as well as theta and beta power during baseline and training runs for each session. Learning effects were analyzed both within and between sessions. To further specify findings, individual learning curves were explored and correlated with behavioral changes in ADHD symptoms. Over the course of the training, there was a linear increase in participants' mean training level, highest obtained training level and the number of earned credits (range b = 0.059, -0.750, p neurofeedback, although a lack of behavioral correlates may indicate insufficient transfer to daily functioning, or to confounding reinforcement of electromyographic activity. This trial is registered at the US National Institutes of Health (ClinicalTrials.gov, ref. no: NCT01363544); https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01363544 .

  5. Descemet Membrane Endothelial Keratoplasty Learning Curve for Graft Preparation in an Eye Bank Using 645 Donor Corneas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parekh, Mohit; Ruzza, Alessandro; Romano, Vito; Favaro, Elisa; Baruzzo, Mattia; Salvalaio, Gianni; Grassetto, Andrea; Ferrari, Stefano; Ponzin, Diego

    2018-03-01

    To investigate the learning curve of Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK) graft preparation in an eye bank. Four operators prepared 645 DMEK grafts using the stripping technique between 2014 and 2017 at the Veneto Eye Bank Foundation, Italy. Endothelial cell loss (ECL) and tissue wastage were recorded retrospectively after DMEK preparation and correlated with the number of tissues prepared each year by each operator. On average, our operators performed 1 donor preparation a week over the course of this study. Only donors older than 60 years were used in this study, and approximately 10% of donors had diabetes. The Wilcoxon test for paired data and 1-way ANOVA were used for checking statistical significance with the Tukey test as post hoc analysis. P 0.05). There is a learning curve for DMEK graft preparation. ECL and tissue wastage can be reduced with practice and skills. However, each operator may be limited to his or her own learning capability.

  6. Transcatheter closure of patent ductus arteriosus: Evaluating the effect of the learning curve on the outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azhar Ahmad

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives : Initial experience with transcatheter closure of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA using detachable coils and Amplatzer duct occluder devices is reported. We evaluated the outcome, complications, and influence of the learning curve, and also assessed the need of surgical backup for such interventional procedures. Methods: From January 2000 to December 2004, 121 patients underwent transcatheter closure of PDA. Aortic angiogram was performed to evaluate the size, position, and shape of the duct for appropriately choosing the occluder device type and size. A second aortic angiogram was performed 10 minutes after device deployment. Echocardiography was repeated at intervals of 24 hours, then at 1, 3, and 6 months after the procedure to assess complications. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to assess the role of experience in improving the outcome of the procedure. Results: Of 121 cases, four patients had pulmonary artery embolization of the occluder device which was successfully retrieved in the catheterization laboratory, while two others had embolization that required surgical intervention. Four patients had temporary residual leak, nine had protrusion of the device into the aorta without significant Doppler pressure gradient or hemolysis on follow-up, and five had partial hemodynamically insignificant obstruction to the left pulmonary artery. Statistical analysis showed that the effect of the learning curve and experience was responsible for 93% improvement in the procedural outcome over the five-year study period. Conclusion: Transcatheter occlusion of PDA is safe and effective alternative to surgery. Complications occurred in those with unfavorable duct anatomy and with the use of multiple coils. Surgical backup was important for such interventional procedures. Experience played a major role in the proper choice of device type and size which greatly influenced the outcome of the procedure.

  7. Innovation and learning curves. Report on knowledge questions of the Working Group Energy and Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoots, K.

    2010-05-01

    This report has been written on account of knowledge questions formulated by the Working Group Energy and Climate. This Working Group has been established in the framework of the Broad Reconsideration of Dutch government policy caused by the economic crisis of 2008-2009. Its task is to investigate the possibilities for a structural reduction of government spending by 20% on sustainable energy, energy saving and fiscal advantages carrying non-sustainable incentives. Apart from that, spending on policies aimed at mitigating climate change are scrutinized. In connection with this task, the working group has formulated knowledge questions which refer to cost effectiveness and possibilities for target achievement, possibilities within the European Renewables Directive and learning curves and innovation. This report addresses the latter two themes: learning curves and innovation. The selection of technologies assessed is not all-embracing, but based on the technologies within the SDE regulation (Dutch regulation on support for sustainable energy) supplemented by some promising innovations. [nl

  8. Transforaminal Lumbar Interbody Fusion with Rigid Interspinous Process Fixation: A Learning Curve Analysis of a Surgeon Team's First 74 Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Patrick; Welch, Arthur; Tharpe, Jason; Moore, Camille; Ferry, Chris

    2017-05-30

    Studies have shown that a significant learning curve may be associated with adopting minimally invasive transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (MIS TLIF) with bilateral pedicle screw fixation (BPSF). Accordingly, several hybrid TLIF techniques have been proposed as surrogates to the accepted BPSF technique, asserting that less/fewer fixation(s) or less disruptive fixation may decrease the learning curve while still maintaining the minimally disruptive benefits. TLIF with interspinous process fixation (ISPF) is one such surrogate procedure. However, despite perceived ease of adaptability given the favorable proximity of the spinous processes, no evidence exists demonstrating whether or not the technique may possess its own inherent learning curve. The purpose of this study was to determine whether an intraoperative learning curve for one- and two-level TLIF + ISPF may exist for a single lead surgeon. Seventy-four consecutive patients who received one- or two-Level TLIF with rigid ISPF by a single lead surgeon were retrospectively reviewed. It was the first TLIF + ISPF case series for the lead surgeon. Intraoperative blood loss (EBL), hospitalization length-of-stay (LOS), fluoroscopy time, and postoperative complications were collected. EBL, LOS, and fluoroscopy time were modeled as a function of case number using multiple linear regression methods. A change point was included in each model to allow the trajectory of the outcomes to change during the duration of the case series. These change points were determined using profile likelihood methods. Models were fit using the maximum likelihood estimates for the change points. Age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and the number of treated levels were included as covariates. EBL, LOS, and fluoroscopy time did not significantly differ by age, sex, or BMI (p ≥ 0.12). Only EBL differed significantly by the number of levels (p = 0.026). The case number was not a significant predictor of EBL, LOS, or fluoroscopy time (p ≥ 0

  9. REEXAMINING THE KUZNETS CURVE: EVIDENCE FOR BRAZIL IN THE PERIOD 1981-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Jose Silva Tabosa

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigated the hypothesis of the Kuznets Curve in order to check if there is a "U Inverted" relationship between the income inequality and economic growth in Brazil in the period since 1981 to 2009. Through the econometrics of panel data (fixed effects, random effects and first difference, and using the linear form of average household income per capita, as a measure of economic growth, and the Gini and Theil indicators, for the measurement of income inequality, were estimated two models: the usual quadratic form, by Ahluwalia (1976 b, and a modification of the cubic form, by List and Gallet (1999. For a better understanding of the relationship between these two variables, the analysis was divided into three periods. Empirical evidence showed that, in general, the Kuznets hypothesis isn’t corroborated. From a theoretical analysis of the political, economic and social context experienced by Brazil in contemporaneity, it is believed that effective public policies that provide quality in basic social services are essential to avoid a new cycle of rising inequality.

  10. Learning curves and long-term outcome of simulation-based thoracentesis training for medical students

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Simulation-based medical education has been widely used in medical skills training; however, the effectiveness and long-term outcome of simulation-based training in thoracentesis requires further investigation. The purpose of this study was to assess the learning curve of simulation-based thoracentesis training, study skills retention and transfer of knowledge to a clinical setting following simulation-based education intervention in thoracentesis procedures. Methods Fifty-two medical students were enrolled in this study. Each participant performed five supervised trials on the simulator. Participant's performance was assessed by performance score (PS), procedure time (PT), and participant's confidence (PC). Learning curves for each variable were generated. Long-term outcome of the training was measured by the retesting and clinical performance evaluation 6 months and 1 year, respectively, after initial training on the simulator. Results Significant improvements in PS, PT, and PC were noted among the first 3 to 4 test trials (p 0.05). Clinical competency in thoracentesis was improved in participants who received simulation training relative to that of first year medical residents without such experience (p simulation-based thoracentesis training can significantly improve an individual's performance. The saturation of learning from the simulator can be achieved after four practice sessions. Simulation-based training can assist in long-term retention of skills and can be partially transferred to clinical practice. PMID:21696584

  11. Retrospective analysis of the learning curve associated with laparoscopic ovariectomy in dogs and associated perioperative complication rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Juliet Frances Anne; Knowles, Toby Grahame

    2014-08-01

    To assess the learning curve associated with laparoscopic ovariectomy (LOE) in 618 dogs and to report perioperative complication rates. Case series. Dogs (n = 618). Data retrieved from the medical records of bitches admitted for LOE over 42 months included date of surgery, breed, weight (kg), age (months), surgeon, suture material used, intraoperative complications and postoperative complications. Each LOE was defined as "successful" or "unsuccessful" by the absence or presence of an intraoperative complication and "failure" rate described using a CUSUM technique. Follow-up time ranged from 152 to 1,435 days (median, 737 days). Intraoperative complications occurred in 10 dogs (1.6%) and included: splenic laceration (6 dogs; 1%), urinary bladder perforation (3 dogs; 0.5%), and subcutaneous emphysema (1 dog; 0.2%). Postoperative complications occurred in 99 dogs (16%) and included: incisional inflammation treated with antibiotics (87 dogs [14%]; 96/1,854 incisions; 5.1%), incisional seroma (5 dogs [0.8%]; 5/1,854 incisions, 0.3%), incisional hernia (4 dogs [0.6%]; 4/1,854 incisions, 0.2%), and ovarian remnant syndrome (3 dogs; 0.5%). CUSUM charts indicated an initial "learning curve" of ∼80 LOE. LOE is a technique with an initial learning curve but once surgical proficiency is reached after ∼80 procedures then intraoperative complication rates associated with the procedure can be low. © Copyright 2014 by The American College of Veterinary Surgeons.

  12. Enucleation ratio efficacy might be a better predictor to assess learning curve of holmium laser enucleation of the prostate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Wook Jeong

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To appraise the evaluation methods for learning curve and to analyze the non-mentor-aided learning curve and early complications following the holmium laser enucleation of the prostate. MATERIALS AND METHODS:One-hundred and forty (n=140 consecutive patients who underwent HoLEP from July 2008 to July 2010 by a single surgeon (SJO were enrolled. Perioperative clinical variables, including enucleation time, morcellation time, enucleation ratio (enucleation weight/transitional zone volume, enucleation efficacy (enucleated weight/enucleation time, enucleation ratio efficacy (enucleation ratio/enucleation time, and early complication rate were analyzed. RESULTS: Mean prostate volume was 62.7 mL (range 21-162 and preoperative International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS was 19.0 (4-35. Mean enucleation time and morcellation time were 49.9±23.8 (S.D. min and 11.0±9.7 min, respectively. Median duration of postoperative indwelling catheter was 1 (1-7 day and median hospital stay was 1 (1-6 day. There were a total of 31 surgery-related complications in 27 patients (19.3%, and all were manageable. There was an increasing trend of enucleation efficacy in the first 50 cases. However, enucleation efficacy was linearly correlated with the prostate size (correlation coefficients, R=0.701, p<0.001. But, enucleation ratio efficacy could eliminate the confounding effect of the prostate size (R=-0.101, p=0.233. The plateau of enucleation ratio efficacy was reached around the twenty-fifth case. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrated that the operative learning curve plateau is reached after about 25 cases. We propose that a more appropriate parameter for estimating the operative learning curve is enucleation ratio efficacy, rather than enucleation efficacy.

  13. [Individual learning curve for radical robot-assisted prostatectomy based on the example of three professionals working in one clinic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasner, P I; Pushkar', D Iu; Kolontarev, K B; Kotenkov, D V

    2014-01-01

    The appearance of new surgical technique always requires evaluation of its effectiveness and ease of acquisition. A comparative study of the results of the first three series of successive robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) performed on at time by three surgeons, was conducted. The series consisted of 40 procedures, and were divided into 4 groups of 10 operations for the analysis. When comparing data, statistically significant improvement of intra- and postoperative performance in each series was revealed, with increase in the number of operations performed, and in each subsequent series compared with the preceding one. We recommend to perform the planned conversion at the first operation. In our study, previous laparoscopic experience did not provide any significant advantages in the acquisition of robot-assisted technology. To characterize the individual learning curve, we recommend the use of the number of operations that the surgeon looked in the life-surgery regimen and/or in which he participated as an assistant before his own surgical activity, as well as the indicator "technical defect". In addition to the term "individual learning curve", we propose to introduce the terms "surgeon's individual training phase", and "clinic's learning curve".

  14. Effects of technological learning and uranium price on nuclear cost: Preliminary insights from a multiple factors learning curve and uranium market modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahouli, Sondes

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the effects of returns to scale, technological learning, i.e. learning-by-doing and learning-by-searching, and uranium price on the prospects of nuclear cost decrease. We use an extended learning curve specification, named multiple factors learning curve (MFLC). In a first stage, we estimate a single MFLC. In a second stage, we estimate the MFLC under the framework of simultaneous system of equations which takes into account the uranium supply and demand. This permits not only to enhance the reliability of the estimation by incorporating the uranium price formation mechanisms in the MFLC via the price variable, but also to give preliminary insights about uranium supply and demand behaviors and the associated effects on the nuclear expansion. Results point out that the nuclear cost has important prospects for decrease via capacity expansion, i.e. learning-by-doing effects. In contrast, they show that the learning-by-searching as well as the scale effects have a limited effect on the cost decrease prospects. Conversely, results also show that uranium price exerts a positive and significant effect on nuclear cost, implying that when the uranium price increases, the nuclear power generation cost decreases. Since uranium is characterized by important physical availability, and since it represents only a minor part in the total nuclear cost, we consider that in a context of increasing demand for nuclear energy the latter result can be explained by the fact that the positive learning effects on the cost of nuclear act in a way to dissipate the negative ones that an increase in uranium price may exert. Further, results give evidence of important inertia in the supply and demand sides as well as evidence of slow correlation between the uranium market and oil market which may limit the inter-fuels substituability effects, that is, nuclear capacity expansion and associated learning-by-doing benefits. - Highlights: → We study the prospects of nuclear cost

  15. Provincial carbon intensity abatement potential estimation in China: A PSO–GA-optimized multi-factor environmental learning curve method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Shiwei; Zhang, Junjie; Zheng, Shuhong; Sun, Han

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to estimate carbon intensity abatement potential in China at the regional level by proposing a particle swarm optimization–genetic algorithm (PSO–GA) multivariate environmental learning curve estimation method. The model uses two independent variables, namely, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP, to construct carbon intensity learning curves (CILCs), i.e., CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP, of 30 provinces in China. Instead of the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) method, a PSO–GA intelligent optimization algorithm is used to optimize the coefficients of a learning curve. The carbon intensity abatement potentials of the 30 Chinese provinces are estimated via PSO–GA under the business-as-usual scenario. The estimation reveals the following results. (1) For most provinces, the abatement potentials from improving a unit of the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP are higher than the potentials from raising a unit of per capita GDP. (2) The average potential of the 30 provinces in 2020 will be 37.6% based on the emission's level of 2005. The potentials of Jiangsu, Tianjin, Shandong, Beijing, and Heilongjiang are over 60%. Ningxia is the only province without intensity abatement potential. (3) The total carbon intensity in China weighted by the GDP shares of the 30 provinces will decline by 39.4% in 2020 compared with that in 2005. This intensity cannot achieve the 40%–45% carbon intensity reduction target set by the Chinese government. Additional mitigation policies should be developed to uncover the potentials of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. In addition, the simulation accuracy of the CILCs optimized by PSO–GA is higher than that of the CILCs optimized by the traditional OLS method. - Highlights: • A PSO–GA-optimized multi-factor environmental learning curve method is proposed. • The carbon intensity abatement potentials of the 30 Chinese provinces are estimated by

  16. Simultaneous development of laparoscopy and robotics provides acceptable perioperative outcomes and shows robotics to have a faster learning curve and to be overall faster in rectal cancer surgery: analysis of novice MIS surgeon learning curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melich, George; Hong, Young Ki; Kim, Jieun; Hur, Hyuk; Baik, Seung Hyuk; Kim, Nam Kyu; Sender Liberman, A; Min, Byung Soh

    2015-03-01

    Laparoscopy offers some evidence of benefit compared to open rectal surgery. Robotic rectal surgery is evolving into an accepted approach. The objective was to analyze and compare laparoscopic and robotic rectal surgery learning curves with respect to operative times and perioperative outcomes for a novice minimally invasive colorectal surgeon. One hundred and six laparoscopic and 92 robotic LAR rectal surgery cases were analyzed. All surgeries were performed by a surgeon who was primarily trained in open rectal surgery. Patient characteristics and perioperative outcomes were analyzed. Operative time and CUSUM plots were used for evaluating the learning curve for laparoscopic versus robotic LAR. Laparoscopic versus robotic LAR outcomes feature initial group operative times of 308 (291-325) min versus 397 (373-420) min and last group times of 220 (212-229) min versus 204 (196-211) min-reversed in favor of robotics; major complications of 4.7 versus 6.5 % (NS), resection margin involvement of 2.8 versus 4.4 % (NS), conversion rate of 3.8 versus 1.1 (NS), lymph node harvest of 16.3 versus 17.2 (NS), and estimated blood loss of 231 versus 201 cc (NS). Due to faster learning curves for extracorporeal phase and total mesorectal excision phase, the robotic surgery was observed to be faster than laparoscopic surgery after the initial 41 cases. CUSUM plots demonstrate acceptable perioperative surgical outcomes from the beginning of the study. Initial robotic operative times improved with practice rapidly and eventually became faster than those for laparoscopy. Developing both laparoscopic and robotic skills simultaneously can provide acceptable perioperative outcomes in rectal surgery. It might be suggested that in the current milieu of clashing interests between evolving technology and economic constrains, there might be advantages in embracing both approaches.

  17. Assessing the impact of windfarms - the learning curve in Cornwall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper uses windfarm application decisions in Cornwall between 1989 and 1995 to illustrate the learning curve of planners in assessing appropriate windfarm locations, and in particular how the process of knowledge construction is constantly reviewed and modified in the light of experience and circumstance. One of the accepted purposes of Environmental Impact Assessment is to predict the possible effects, both beneficial and adverse, of the development on the environment. In practice what is beneficial and what is adverse can be a matter of dispute. The paper draws out the role of the planning system in assessing what is problematic or benign, and the practical strategies and procedures used to assess and control the environmental impacts of wind energy schemes. (Author)

  18. Total hip arthroplasty by the direct anterior approach using a neck-preserving stem: Safety, efficacy and learning curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditya Khemka

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The concept of femoral neck preservation in total hip replacement (THR was introduced in 1993. It is postulated that retaining cortical bone of the femoral neck offers triplanar stability, uniform stress distribution, and accommodates physiological anteversion. However, data on safety, efficacy and learning curve are lacking. Materials and Methods: We prospectively assessed all patients who were operated for a THR with a short neck preserving stem (MiniHip between 2012 and 2014. The safety and learning curve were assessed by recording operative time; stem size; and adverse events including periprosthetic fracture; paresthesia; and limb length discrepancy (LLD. The cohort was divided into equal groups to assess the learning curve effect, and the cumulative sums (CUSUM test was performed to monitor intraoperative neck fractures. For assessment of efficacy, Oxford Hip Score (OHS and Short Form-36 (SF-36 scores were compared preoperatively and postoperatively. Results: 138 patients with median age 62 years (range 35–82 years were included with a median followup of 42 months (range 30–56 months. The minimum followup was 2.5 years. The OHS, SF-36 (physical and mental component scores improved by a mean score of 26, 28, and 27 points, respectively. All patients had LLD of <10 mm (1.9 mm ± 1.3. Adverse events included intraoperative neck fracture (n = 6, subsidence (n = 1, periprosthetic fracture (n = 1, paresthesia (n = 12, and trochanteric bursitis (n = 2. After early modification of the technique to use a smaller finishing broach, the CUSUM test demonstrated acceptable intraoperative neck fracture risk. The second surgery group had a reduced risk of intraoperative neck fracture (5/69 vs. 1/69 P = 0.2, reduced operative time (66 vs. 61 min, P = 0.06, and increased stem size (5 vs. 6, P = 0.09 although these differences were not statistically significant. Conclusions: The MiniHip stem is safe alternative to standard THR with good

  19. Sensitive periods in affective development: nonlinear maturation of fear learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, Catherine A; Lee, Francis S

    2015-01-01

    At specific maturational stages, neural circuits enter sensitive periods of heightened plasticity, during which the development of both brain and behavior are highly receptive to particular experiential information. A relatively advanced understanding of the regulatory mechanisms governing the initiation, closure, and reinstatement of sensitive period plasticity has emerged from extensive research examining the development of the visual system. In this article, we discuss a large body of work characterizing the pronounced nonlinear changes in fear learning and extinction that occur from childhood through adulthood, and their underlying neural substrates. We draw upon the model of sensitive period regulation within the visual system, and present burgeoning evidence suggesting that parallel mechanisms may regulate the qualitative changes in fear learning across development.

  20. Using a high-fidelity patient simulator with first-year medical students to facilitate learning of cardiovascular function curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, David M; Ryan, Kathleen; Rabuck, Cynthia

    2012-09-01

    Students are relying on technology for learning more than ever, and educators need to adapt to facilitate student learning. High-fidelity patient simulators (HFPS) are usually reserved for the clinical years of medical education and are geared to improve clinical decision skills, teamwork, and patient safety. Finding ways to incorporate HFPS into preclinical medical education represents more of a challenge, and there is limited literature regarding its implementation. The main objective of this study was to implement a HFPS activity into a problem-based curriculum to enhance the learning of basic sciences. More specifically, the focus was to aid in student learning of cardiovascular function curves and help students develop heart failure treatment strategies based on basic cardiovascular physiology concepts. Pretests and posttests, along with student surveys, were used to determine student knowledge and perception of learning in two first-year medical school classes. There was an increase of 21% and 22% in the percentage of students achieving correct answers on a posttest compared with their pretest score. The median number of correct questions increased from pretest scores of 2 and 2.5 to posttest scores of 4 and 5 of a possible total of 6 in each respective year. Student survey data showed agreement that the activity aided in learning. This study suggests that a HFPS activity can be implemented during the preclinical years of medical education to address basic science concepts. Additionally, it suggests that student learning of cardiovascular function curves and heart failure strategies are facilitated.

  1. Education Isn’t Education: The Creativity Response or How to Improve the Learning Curve in Our Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Brunnhuber

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite rising expenditure and general enrolment rates on a global level, educational output is stagnating, if not declining. There is increasing empirical evidence that we need a completely different approach to enhancing the learning curve; this holds true for early childhood, primary education, secondary education and higher education. Most existing educational programs do not tap into the full creative potential of our minds and our brains and often lead to suboptimal outcomes both for the individual and for society as a whole. Findings in clinical psychology, neurobiology and social psychology are not sufficiently considered when setting up appropriate educational programs. It is not the cognitive part of the curriculum that makes a difference, but rather the non-cognitive features (including stress management, impulse control, self-regulation, emotional attachment etc. that improve creativity. A ‘six-pack’ of features, including exercise, nutrition, social contact, mindfulness-based practices, sleeping well, and multi-sensory learning, is introduced as part of a ‘creativity response’. They are simple, affordable, evidence-based and efficient strategies that can be implemented promptly without additional costs, increasing our learning curve.

  2. Power Curve Measurements FGW

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgieva Yankova, Ginka; Federici, Paolo

    This report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given turbine in a chosen period. The measurements are carried out in accordance to IEC 61400-12-1 Ed. 1 and FGW Teil 2.......This report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given turbine in a chosen period. The measurements are carried out in accordance to IEC 61400-12-1 Ed. 1 and FGW Teil 2....

  3. Balloon dilation of the eustachian tube in a cadaver model: technical considerations, learning curve, and potential barriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoul, Edward D; Singh, Ameet; Anand, Vijay K; Tabaee, Abtin

    2012-04-01

    The surgical management options for eustachian tube dysfunction have historically been limited. The goal of the current study was to evaluate the technical considerations, learning curve, and potential barriers for balloon dilation of the eustachian tube (BDET) as an alternative treatment modality. Prospective preclinical trial of BDET in a cadaver model. A novel balloon catheter device was used for eustachian tube dilation. Twenty-four BDET procedures were performed by three independent rhinologists with no prior experience with the procedure (eight procedures per surgeon). The duration and number of attempts of the individual steps and overall procedure were recorded. Endoscopic examination of the eustachian tube was performed after each procedure, and the surgeon was asked to rate the subjective difficulty on a five-point scale. Successful completion of the procedure occurred in each case. The overall mean duration of the procedure was 284 seconds, and a mean number of 1.15 attempts were necessary to perform the individual steps. The mean subjective procedure difficulty was noted as somewhat easy. Statistically shorter duration and subjectively easier procedure were noted in the second compared to the first half of the series, indicating a favorable learning curve. Linear fissuring within the eustachian tube lumen without submucosal disruption (nine procedures, 37%) and with submucosal disruption (five procedures, 21%) were noted. The significance of these physical findings is unclear. Preclinical testing of BDET is associated with favorable duration, learning curve, and overall ease of completion. Clinical trials are necessary to evaluate safety and efficacy. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological, and Otological Society, Inc.

  4. LHC Run 2 – reaching the top of the learning curve

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    As the LHC Physics conference gets underway in St Petersburg, it’s a good time to take stock of where things stand with Run 2.    For all those involved with operating the LHC and its experiments in this new energy and intensity regime, 2015 was always going to be a learning curve. And learning we most certainly are. The main objective for this year has always been to set up the machine and experiments for production running at high energy and high intensity in 2016, 17 and 18.  That said, the experiments have all been able to collect quality data at 13 TeV, with the first Run 2 papers and conference presentations being written and delivered this summer. It would be unfair of me, however, to give the impression that it’s all been plain sailing. As well as the highs: smooth recommissioning of the machine, physics getting underway, and a successful transition to 25-nanosecond bunch spacing, we’ve also had our fair share of lows. There have been no sho...

  5. Return period curves for extreme 5-min rainfall amounts at the Barcelona urban network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana, X.; Casas-Castillo, M. C.; Serra, C.; Rodríguez-Solà, R.; Redaño, A.; Burgueño, A.; Martínez, M. D.

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall episodes are relatively common in the conurbation of Barcelona and neighbouring cities (NE Spain), usually due to storms generated by convective phenomena in summer and eastern and south-eastern advections in autumn. Prevention of local flood episodes and right design of urban drainage have to take into account the rainfall intensity spread instead of a simple evaluation of daily rainfall amounts. The database comes from 5-min rain amounts recorded by tipping buckets in the Barcelona urban network along the years 1994-2009. From these data, extreme 5-min rain amounts are selected applying the peaks-over-threshold method for thresholds derived from both 95% percentile and the mean excess plot. The return period curves are derived from their statistical distribution for every gauge, describing with detail expected extreme 5-min rain amounts across the urban network. These curves are compared with those derived from annual extreme time series. In this way, areas in Barcelona submitted to different levels of flood risk from the point of view of rainfall intensity are detected. Additionally, global time trends on extreme 5-min rain amounts are quantified for the whole network and found as not statistically significant.

  6. Photoelectic BV Light Curves of Algol and the Interpretations of the Light Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho-Il Kim

    1985-06-01

    Full Text Available Standardized B and V photoelectric light curves of Algol are made with the observations obtained during 1982-84 with the 40-cm and the 61-cm reflectors of Yonsei University Observatory. These light curves show asymmetry between ascending and descending shoulders. The ascending shoulder is 0.02 mag brighter than descending shoulder in V light curve and 0.03 mag in B light curve. These asymmetric light curves are interpreted as the result of inhomogeneous energy distribution on the surface of one star of the eclipsing pair rather than the result of gaseous stream flowing from KOIV to B8V star. The 180-year periodicity, so called great inequality, are most likely the result proposed by Kim et al. (1983 that the abrupt and discrete mass losses of cooler component may be the cause of this orbital change. The amount of mass loss deduced from these discrete period changes turned out to be of the order of 10^(-6 - 10^(-5 Msolar.

  7. PERIODIC SIGNALS IN BINARY MICROLENSING EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Xinyi; Stefano, Rosanne Di; Esin, Ann; Taylor, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Gravitational microlensing events are powerful tools for the study of stellar populations. In particular, they can be used to discover and study a variety of binary systems. A large number of binary lenses have already been found through microlensing surveys and a few of these systems show strong evidence of orbital motion on the timescale of the lensing event. We expect that more binary lenses of this kind will be detected in the future. For binaries whose orbital period is comparable to the event duration, the orbital motion can cause the lensing signal to deviate drastically from that of a static binary lens. The most striking property of such light curves is the presence of quasi-periodic features, which are produced as the source traverses the same regions in the rotating lens plane. These repeating features contain information about the orbital period of the lens. If this period can be extracted, then much can be learned about the lensing system even without performing time-consuming, detailed light-curve modeling. However, the relative transverse motion between the source and the lens significantly complicates the problem of period extraction. To resolve this difficulty, we present a modification of the standard Lomb–Scargle periodogram analysis. We test our method for four representative binary lens systems and demonstrate its efficiency in correctly extracting binary orbital periods

  8. Single-centre experience of retroperitoneoscopic approach in urology with tips to overcome the steep learning curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aneesh Srivastava

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: The retroperitoneoscopic or retroperitoneal (RP surgical approach has not become as popular as the transperitoneal (TP one due to the steeper learning curve. Aims: Our single-institution experience focuses on the feasibility, advantages and complications of retroperitoneoscopic surgeries (RS performed over the past 10 years. Tips and tricks have been discussed to overcome the steep learning curve and these are emphasised. Settings and Design: This study made a retrospective analysis of computerised hospital data of patients who underwent RP urological procedures from 2003 to 2013 at a tertiary care centre. Patients and Methods: Between 2003 and 2013, 314 cases of RS were performed for various urological procedures. We analysed the operative time, peri-operative complications, time to return of bowel sound, length of hospital stay, and advantages and difficulties involved. Post-operative complications were stratified into five grades using modified Clavien classification (MCC. Results: RS were successfully completed in 95.5% of patients, with 4% of the procedures electively performed by the combined approach (both RP and TP; 3.2% required open conversion and 1.3% were converted to the TP approach. The most common cause for conversion was bleeding. Mean hospital stay was 3.2 ± 1.2 days and the mean time for returning of bowel sounds was 16.5 ± 5.4 h. Of the patients, 1.4% required peri-operative blood transfusion. A total of 16 patients (5% had post-operative complications and the majority were grades I and II as per MCC. The rates of intra-operative and post-operative complications depended on the difficulty of the procedure, but the complications diminished over the years with the increasing experience of surgeons. Conclusion: Retroperitoneoscopy has proven an excellent approach, with certain advantages. The tips and tricks that have been provided and emphasised should definitely help to minimise the steep learning curve.

  9. The learning curve for narrow-band imaging in the diagnosis of precancerous gastric lesions by using Web-based video.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias-Silva, Diogo; Pimentel-Nunes, Pedro; Magalhães, Joana; Magalhães, Ricardo; Veloso, Nuno; Ferreira, Carlos; Figueiredo, Pedro; Moutinho, Pedro; Dinis-Ribeiro, Mário

    2014-06-01

    A simplified narrow-band imaging (NBI) endoscopy classification of gastric precancerous and cancerous lesions was derived and validated in a multicenter study. This classification comes with the need for dissemination through adequate training. To address the learning curve of this classification by endoscopists with differing expertise and to assess the feasibility of a YouTube-based learning program to disseminate it. Prospective study. Five centers. Six gastroenterologists (3 trainees, 3 fully trained endoscopists [FTs]). Twenty tests provided through a Web-based program containing 10 randomly ordered NBI videos of gastric mucosa were taken. Feedback was sent 7 days after every test submission. Measures of accuracy of the NBI classification throughout the time. From the first to the last 50 videos, a learning curve was observed with a 10% increase in global accuracy, for both trainees (from 64% to 74%) and FTs (from 56% to 65%). After 200 videos, sensitivity and specificity of 80% and higher for intestinal metaplasia were observed in half the participants, and a specificity for dysplasia greater than 95%, along with a relevant likelihood ratio for a positive result of 7 to 28 and likelihood ratio for a negative result of 0.21 to 0.82, were achieved by all of the participants. No constant learning curve was observed for the identification of Helicobacter pylori gastritis and sensitivity to dysplasia. The trainees had better results in all of the parameters, except specificity for dysplasia, compared with the FTs. Globally, participants agreed that the program's structure was adequate, except on the feedback, which should have consisted of a more detailed explanation of each answer. No formal sample size estimate. A Web-based learning program could be used to teach and disseminate classifications in the endoscopy field. In this study, an NBI classification for gastric mucosal features seems to be easily learned for the identification of gastric preneoplastic

  10. Light curve solutions and study of roles of magnetic fields in period variations of the UV Leo system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Manzoori

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The solutions of photometric BV light curves for the Algol like system UV Leo were obtained using Wilson-Devinney code. The physical and orbital parameters along with absolute dimensions of the system were determined. It has been found that to best fit the V light curve of the system, assumptions of three dark spots were necessary two on the secondary and one on the primary. The absolute visual magnitudes (Mv of the individual components i.e., primary and secondary were estimated to 4.41 and 4.43, respectively, through the color curve analysis. The period analysis of the system presented elsewhere, indicated a cyclic period change of 12 yr duration, which was attributed to magnetic activity cycle, as a main cause of period variation in the system, through the Applegate mechanism. To verify the Applegate model I preformed calculations of some related parameters barrowed from Apllegate and Kalimeris. Values of all the calculated parameters were in accordance to those obtained for similar systems by Applegate. The differential magnitudes Δ B and Δ V, along with corresponding values of Δ(B-V color index. The cyclic variations in brightness are quite clear. There are three predictions of Applegate's theory concerning effects of cyclic magnetic changes on the period variations, which can be checked through the observations, these are as follows: I The long term variations in mean brightness (at outside of eclipses and cyclic changes of orbital period, vary with the same period. II The active star gets bluer as it gets brightened and/or the brightness and color variations are to be in phase. III Changes in luminosity due to changes in quadrupole moment should be of the order 0.1 mag. All the above mentioned predictions of Applegate’s theory are verified. These results combined with cyclic character of P(E presented elsewhere and also consistency of parameters which are obtained in this paper, led me to conclude that one the main causes of period

  11. Using learning curves on energy-efficient technologies to estimate future energy savings and emission reduction potentials in the U.S. iron and steel industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karali, Nihan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Park, Won Young [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McNeil, Michael A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-06-18

    Increasing concerns on non-sustainable energy use and climate change spur a growing research interest in energy efficiency potentials in various critical areas such as industrial production. This paper focuses on learning curve aspects of energy efficiency measures in the U.S iron and steel sector. A number of early-stage efficient technologies (i.e., emerging or demonstration technologies) are technically feasible and have the potential to make a significant contribution to energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction, but fall short economically to be included. However, they may also have the cost effective potential for significant cost reduction and/or performance improvement in the future under learning effects such as ‘learning-by-doing’. The investigation is carried out using ISEEM, a technology oriented, linear optimization model. We investigated how steel demand is balanced with/without the availability learning curve, compared to a Reference scenario. The retrofit (or investment in some cases) costs of energy efficient technologies decline in the scenario where learning curve is applied. The analysis also addresses market penetration of energy efficient technologies, energy saving, and CO2 emissions in the U.S. iron and steel sector with/without learning impact. Accordingly, the study helps those who use energy models better manage the price barriers preventing unrealistic diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies, better understand the market and learning system involved, predict future achievable learning rates more accurately, and project future savings via energy-efficiency technologies with presence of learning. We conclude from our analysis that, most of the existing energy efficiency technologies that are currently used in the U.S. iron and steel sector are cost effective. Penetration levels increases through the years, even though there is no price reduction. However, demonstration technologies are not economically

  12. The influence of prior multiport experience on the learning curve for single-port thoracoscopic lobectomy: a multicentre comparative study†.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Ucar, Antonio E; Aragon, Javier; Bolufer Nadal, Sergio; Galvez Munoz, Carlos; Luo, Qigang; Perez Mendez, Itzel; Sihoe, Alan D L; Socci, Laura

    2017-06-01

    Competency in video-assisted thoracoscopic (VATS) lobectomy is estimated to be reached after the surgeon completes 50 cases. We wanted to explore the impact of competency in performing multiport VATS lobectomies on completing the needed number of single-port VATS. In a retrospective multicentre study, 6 individual surgeons (3 with previous competency in multiport VATS lobectomy and 3 without) submitted their first 50 cases of single-port VATS lobectomies. Extended and sublobar resections were excluded. Pre-, peri- and postoperative data were compared between the groups of surgeons. Chi-square and Wilcoxon's rank tests were used. The less experienced surgeons had previously attended dedicated training courses and visited with experts. A total of 300 cases were included [150 in Group A (surgeons with previous experience performing multiport VATS) and 150 in Group B (surgeons without extensive experience performing multiport VATS)]. Surgeons in Group B performed significantly more elective open lobectomies during their learning curve period than surgeons of Group A (58 vs 1). Patients in Group B were older and had more risk factors. There were 3 in-hospital deaths (respiratory failure, sepsis and fatal stroke). There were no differences between the groups in operative time, intensive care unit admissions, hospital stay, total complications, tumour size or number of N2 stations explored. Only the duration of intercostal drainage (2 vs 3 days, 0.012), incidence of respiratory tract infections (1% vs 7%, P  = 0.002) and conversion rates (4% vs 12%, P  = 0.018) were better in Group A. Patients characteristics played a role in the development of respiratory infections and longer drainage times but not in the need for conversion. Overall, postoperative outcomes during the learning curve period for single-port VATS lobectomies are not noticeably affected by previous multiport VATS experience. Less experienced surgeons were more selective in order to achieve

  13. Training anesthesiology residents in providing anesthesia for awake craniotomy: learning curves and estimate of needed case load.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilotta, Federico; Titi, Luca; Lanni, Fabiana; Stazi, Elisabetta; Rosa, Giovanni

    2013-08-01

    To measure the learning curves of residents in anesthesiology in providing anesthesia for awake craniotomy, and to estimate the case load needed to achieve a "good-excellent" level of competence. Prospective study. Operating room of a university hospital. 7 volunteer residents in anesthesiology. Residents underwent a dedicated training program of clinical characteristics of anesthesia for awake craniotomy. The program was divided into three tasks: local anesthesia, sedation-analgesia, and intraoperative hemodynamic management. The learning curve for each resident for each task was recorded over 10 procedures. Quantitative assessment of the individual's ability was based on the resident's self-assessment score and the attending anesthesiologist's judgment, and rated by modified 12 mm Likert scale, reported ability score visual analog scale (VAS). This ability VAS score ranged from 1 to 12 (ie, very poor, mild, moderate, sufficient, good, excellent). The number of requests for advice also was recorded (ie, resident requests for practical help and theoretical notions to accomplish the procedures). Each task had a specific learning rate; the number of procedures necessary to achieve "good-excellent" ability with confidence, as determined by the recorded results, were 10 procedures for local anesthesia, 15 to 25 procedures for sedation-analgesia, and 20 to 30 procedures for intraoperative hemodynamic management. Awake craniotomy is an approach used increasingly in neuroanesthesia. A dedicated training program based on learning specific tasks and building confidence with essential features provides "good-excellent" ability. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Laparoscopy Instructional Videos: The Effect of Preoperative Compared With Intraoperative Use on Learning Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broekema, Theo H; Talsma, Aaldert K; Wevers, Kevin P; Pierie, Jean-Pierre E N

    Previous studies have shown that the use of intraoperative instructional videos has a positive effect on learning laparoscopic procedures. This study investigated the effect of the timing of the instructional videos on learning curves in laparoscopic skills training. After completing a basic skills course on a virtual reality simulator, medical students and residents with less than 1 hour experience using laparoscopic instruments were randomized into 2 groups. Using an instructional video either preoperatively or intraoperatively, both groups then performed 4 repetitions of a standardized task on the TrEndo augmented reality. With the TrEndo, 9 motion analysis parameters (MAPs) were recorded for each session (4 MAPs for each hand and time). These were the primary outcome measurements for performance. The time spent watching the instructional video was also recorded. Improvement in performance was studied within and between groups. Medical Center Leeuwarden, a secondary care hospital located in Leeuwarden, The Netherlands. Right-hand dominant medical student and residents with more than 1 hour experience operating any kind of laparoscopic instruments were participated. A total of 23 persons entered the study, of which 21 completed the study course. In both groups, at least 5 of 9 MAPs showed significant improvements between repetition 1 and 4. When both groups were compared after completion of repetition 4, no significant differences in improvement were detected. The intraoperative group showed significant improvement in 3 MAPs of the left-nondominant-hand, compared with one MAP for the preoperative group. No significant differences in learning curves could be detected between the subjects who used intraoperative instructional videos and those who used preoperative instructional videos. Intraoperative video instruction may result in improved dexterity of the nondominant hand. Copyright © 2016 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc

  15. Power Curve Measurements REWS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gómez Arranz, Paula; Vesth, Allan

    This report describes the power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine in a chosen period. The measurements were carried out following the measurement procedure in the draft of IEC 61400-12-1 Ed.2 [1], with some deviations mostly regarding uncertainty calculation. Here, the refere......This report describes the power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine in a chosen period. The measurements were carried out following the measurement procedure in the draft of IEC 61400-12-1 Ed.2 [1], with some deviations mostly regarding uncertainty calculation. Here......, the reference wind speed used in the power curve is the equivalent wind speed obtained from lidar measurements at several heights between lower and upper blade tip, in combination with a hub height meteorological mast. The measurements have been performed using DTU’s measurement equipment, the analysis...

  16. The learning curve of the three-port two-instrument complete thoracoscopic lobectomy for lung cancer—A feasible technique worthy of popularization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Jen Cheng

    2015-07-01

    Conclusion: Three-port complete thoracoscopic lobectomy with the two-instrument technique is feasible for lung cancer treatment. The length of the learning curve consisted of 28 cases. This TPTI technique should be popularized.

  17. Development Process and Technical Aspects of Laparoscopic Hepatectomy: Learning Curve Based on 15 Years of Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, Shohei; Scatton, Olivier; Goumard, Claire; Sepulveda, Ailton; Brustia, Raffaele; Perdigao, Fabiano; Soubrane, Olivier

    2017-05-01

    Laparoscopic hepatectomy continues to be a challenging operation associated with a steep learning curve. This study aimed to evaluate the learning process during 15 years of experience with laparoscopic hepatectomy and to identify approaches to standardization of this procedure. Prospectively collected data of 317 consecutive laparoscopic hepatectomies performed from January 2000 to December 2014 were reviewed retrospectively. The operative procedures were classified into 4 categories (minor hepatectomy, left lateral sectionectomy [LLS], left hepatectomy, and right hepatectomy), and indications were classified into 5 categories (benign-borderline tumor, living donor, metastatic liver tumor, biliary malignancy, and hepatocellular carcinoma). During the first 10 years, the procedures were limited mainly to minor hepatectomy and LLS, and the indications were limited to benign-borderline tumor and living donor. Implementation of major hepatectomy rapidly increased the proportion of malignant tumors, especially hepatocellular carcinoma, starting from 2011. Conversion rates decreased with experience for LLS (13.3% vs 3.4%; p = 0.054) and left hepatectomy (50.0% vs 15.0%; p = 0.012), but not for right hepatectomy (41.4% vs 35.7%; p = 0.661). Our 15-year experience clearly demonstrates the stepwise procedural evolution from LLS through left hepatectomy to right hepatectomy, as well as the trend in indications from benign-borderline tumor/living donor to malignant tumors. In contrast to LLS and left hepatectomy, a learning curve was not observed for right hepatectomy. The ongoing development process can contribute to faster standardization necessary for future advances in laparoscopic hepatectomy. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The crime kuznets curve

    OpenAIRE

    Buonanno, Paolo; Fergusson, Leopoldo; Vargas, Juan Fernando

    2014-01-01

    We document the existence of a Crime Kuznets Curve in US states since the 1970s. As income levels have risen, crime has followed an inverted U-shaped pattern, first increasing and then dropping. The Crime Kuznets Curve is not explained by income inequality. In fact, we show that during the sample period inequality has risen monotonically with income, ruling out the traditional Kuznets Curve. Our finding is robust to adding a large set of controls that are used in the literature to explain the...

  19. Placement of central venous port catheters and peripherally inserted central catheters in the routine clinical setting of a radiology department: analysis of costs and intervention duration learning curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotzinger, Roman; Gebauer, Bernhard; Schnapauff, Dirk; Streitparth, Florian; Wieners, Gero; Grieser, Christian; Freyhardt, Patrick; Hamm, Bernd; Maurer, Martin H

    2017-12-01

    Background Placement of central venous port catheters (CVPS) and peripherally inserted central catheters (PICC) is an integral component of state-of-the-art patient care. In the era of increasing cost awareness, it is desirable to have more information to comprehensively assess both procedures. Purpose To perform a retrospective analysis of interventional radiologic implantation of CVPS and PICC lines in a large patient population including a cost analysis of both methods as well as an investigation the learning curve in terms of the interventions' durations. Material and Methods All CVPS and PICC line related interventions performed in an interventional radiology department during a three-year period from January 2011 to December 2013 were examined. Documented patient data included sex, venous access site, and indication for CVPS or PICC placement. A cost analysis including intervention times was performed based on the prorated costs of equipment use, staff costs, and expenditures for disposables. The decrease in intervention duration in the course of time conformed to the learning curve. Results In total, 2987 interventions were performed by 16 radiologists: 1777 CVPS and 791 PICC lines. An average implantation took 22.5 ± 0.6 min (CVPS) and 10.1 ± 0.9 min (PICC lines). For CVPS, this average time was achieved by seven radiologists newly learning the procedures after performing 20 CVPS implantations. Total costs per implantation were €242 (CVPS) and €201 (PICC lines). Conclusion Interventional radiologic implantations of CVPS and PICC lines are well-established procedures, easy to learn by residents, and can be implanted at low costs.

  20. Experience Curves: A Tool for Energy Policy Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neij, Lena; Helby, Peter [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Environmental and Energy Systems Studies; Dannemand Andersen, Per; Morthorst, Poul Erik [Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark); Durstewitz, Michael; Hoppe-Kilpper, Martin [Inst. fuer Solare Energieversorgungstechnik e.V., Kassel (DE); and others

    2003-07-01

    The objective of the project, Experience curves: a tool for energy policy assessment (EXTOOL), was to analyse the experience curve as a tool for the assessment of energy policy measures. This is of special interest, since the use of experience curves for the assessment of energy policy measures requires the development of the established experience curve methodology. This development raises several questions which have been addressed and analysed in this project. The analysis is based on case studies of wind power, an area with considerable experience in technology development, deployment and policy measures. Therefore, a case study based on wind power provides a good opportunity to study the usefulness of experience curves as a tool for the assessment of energy policy measures. However, the results are discussed in terms of using experience curves for the assessment of any energy technology. The project shows that experience curves can be used to assess the effect of combined policy measures in terms of cost reductions. Moreover, the result of the project show that experience curves could be used to analyse international 'learning systems', i.e. cost reductions brought about by the development of wind power and policy measures used in other countries. Nevertheless, the use of experience curves for the assessment of policy programmes has several limitations. First, the analysis and assessment of policy programmes cannot be achieved unless relevant experience curves based on good data can be developed. The authors are of the opinion that only studies that provide evidence of the validity, reliability and relevance of experience curves should be taken into account in policy making. Second, experience curves provide an aggregated picture of the situation and more detailed analysis of various sources of cost reduction, and cost reductions resulting from individual policy measures, requires additional data and analysis tools. Third, we do not recommend the use of

  1. Chaotic mixing in a planar, curved channel using periodic slip

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, P.; Picardo, J. R.; Pushpavanam, S.

    2015-01-01

    We propose a novel strategy for designing chaotic micromixers using curved channels confined between two flat planes. The location of the separatrix between the Dean vortices, induced by centrifugal forces, is dependent on the location of the maxima of axial velocity. An asymmetry in the axial velocity profile can change the location of the separatrix. This is achieved physically by introducing slip alternatingly at the top and bottom walls. This leads to streamline crossing and Lagrangian chaos. An approximate analytical solution of the velocity field is obtained using perturbation theory. This is used to find the Lagrangian trajectories of fluid particles. Poincare sections taken at periodic locations in the axial direction are used to study the extent of chaos. We study two microchannel designs, called circlet and serpentine, in which the Dean vortices in adjacent half cells are co-rotating and counter-rotating, respectively. The extent of mixing, at low Re and low slip length, is shown to be greater in the serpentine case. Wide channels are observed to have much better mixing than tall channels; an important observation not made for separatrix flows till now. Eulerian indicators are used to gauge the extent of mixing, with varying slip length, and it is shown that an optimum slip length exists which maximizes the mixing in a particular geometry. Once the parameter space of relatively high mixing is identified, detailed variance computations are carried out to identify the detailed features

  2. Chaotic mixing in a planar, curved channel using periodic slip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, P.; Picardo, J. R.; Pushpavanam, S.

    2015-03-01

    We propose a novel strategy for designing chaotic micromixers using curved channels confined between two flat planes. The location of the separatrix between the Dean vortices, induced by centrifugal forces, is dependent on the location of the maxima of axial velocity. An asymmetry in the axial velocity profile can change the location of the separatrix. This is achieved physically by introducing slip alternatingly at the top and bottom walls. This leads to streamline crossing and Lagrangian chaos. An approximate analytical solution of the velocity field is obtained using perturbation theory. This is used to find the Lagrangian trajectories of fluid particles. Poincare sections taken at periodic locations in the axial direction are used to study the extent of chaos. We study two microchannel designs, called circlet and serpentine, in which the Dean vortices in adjacent half cells are co-rotating and counter-rotating, respectively. The extent of mixing, at low Re and low slip length, is shown to be greater in the serpentine case. Wide channels are observed to have much better mixing than tall channels; an important observation not made for separatrix flows till now. Eulerian indicators are used to gauge the extent of mixing, with varying slip length, and it is shown that an optimum slip length exists which maximizes the mixing in a particular geometry. Once the parameter space of relatively high mixing is identified, detailed variance computations are carried out to identify the detailed features.

  3. A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

    2017-01-01

    The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755-0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691-0.783) and 0.742 (0.698-0.785), p machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction.

  4. Impact of cap-assisted colonoscopy on the learning curve and quality in colonoscopy: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhouwen; Zhang, Daniel S; Thrift, Aaron P; Patel, Kalpesh K

    2018-03-01

    Colonoscopy competency assessment in trainees traditionally has been informal. Comprehensive metrics such as the Assessment of Competency in Endoscopy (ACE) tool suggest that competency thresholds are higher than assumed. Cap-assisted colonoscopy (CAC) may improve competency, but data regarding novice trainees are lacking. We compared CAC versus standard colonoscopy (SC) performed by novice trainees in a randomized controlled trial. All colonoscopies performed by 3 gastroenterology fellows without prior experience were eligible for the study. Exclusion criteria included patient age 90 years, pregnancy, prior colon resection, diverticulitis, colon obstruction, severe hematochezia, referral for EMR, or a procedure done without patient sedation. Patients were randomized to either CAC or SC in a 1:1 fashion. The primary outcome was the independent cecal intubation rate (ICIR). Secondary outcomes were cecal intubation time, polyp detection rate, polyp miss rate, adenoma detection rate, ACE tool scores, and cumulative summation learning curves. A total of 203 colonoscopies were analyzed, 101 in CAC and 102 in SC. CAC resulted in a significantly higher cecal intubation rate, at 79.2% in CAC compared with 66.7% in SC (P = .04). Overall cecal intubation time was significantly shorter at 13.7 minutes for CAC versus 16.5 minutes for SC (P =.02). Cecal intubation time in the case of successful independent fellow intubation was not significantly different between CAC and SC (11.6 minutes vs 12.7 minutes; P = .29). Overall ACE tool motor and cognitive scores were higher with CAC. Learning curves for ICIR approached the competency threshold earlier with cap use but reached competency for only 1 fellow. The polyp detection rate, polyp miss rate, and adenoma detection rate were not significantly different between groups. CAC resulted in significant improvement in ICIR, overall ACE tool scores, and trend toward competency on learning curves when compared with SC in colonoscopy

  5. Differential geometry and topology of curves

    CERN Document Server

    Animov, Yu

    2001-01-01

    Differential geometry is an actively developing area of modern mathematics. This volume presents a classical approach to the general topics of the geometry of curves, including the theory of curves in n-dimensional Euclidean space. The author investigates problems for special classes of curves and gives the working method used to obtain the conditions for closed polygonal curves. The proof of the Bakel-Werner theorem in conditions of boundedness for curves with periodic curvature and torsion is also presented. This volume also highlights the contributions made by great geometers. past and present, to differential geometry and the topology of curves.

  6. Development of the Mathematics of Learning Curve Models for Evaluating Small Modular Reactor Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, T. J. [ORNL

    2014-02-01

    The cost of nuclear power is a straightforward yet complicated topic. It is straightforward in that the cost of nuclear power is a function of the cost to build the nuclear power plant, the cost to operate and maintain it, and the cost to provide fuel for it. It is complicated in that some of those costs are not necessarily known, introducing uncertainty into the analysis. For large light water reactor (LWR)-based nuclear power plants, the uncertainty is mainly contained within the cost of construction. The typical costs of operations and maintenance (O&M), as well as fuel, are well known based on the current fleet of LWRs. However, the last currently operating reactor to come online was Watts Bar 1 in May 1996; thus, the expected construction costs for gigawatt (GW)-class reactors in the United States are based on information nearly two decades old. Extrapolating construction, O&M, and fuel costs from GW-class LWRs to LWR-based small modular reactors (SMRs) introduces even more complication. The per-installed-kilowatt construction costs for SMRs are likely to be higher than those for the GW-class reactors based on the property of the economy of scale. Generally speaking, the economy of scale is the tendency for overall costs to increase slower than the overall production capacity. For power plants, this means that doubling the power production capacity would be expected to cost less than twice as much. Applying this property in the opposite direction, halving the power production capacity would be expected to cost more than half as much. This can potentially make the SMRs less competitive in the electricity market against the GW-class reactors, as well as against other power sources such as natural gas and subsidized renewables. One factor that can potentially aid the SMRs in achieving economic competitiveness is an economy of numbers, as opposed to the economy of scale, associated with learning curves. The basic concept of the learning curve is that the more a

  7. Living with diabetes—Development of learning patterns over a 3-year period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Kneck

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Learning involves acquiring new knowledge and skills, and changing our ways of thinking, acting, and feeling. Learning in relation to living with diabetes is a lifelong process where there is limited knowledge of how it is experienced and established over time. It was considered important to explore how learning was developed over time for persons living with diabetes. Aim: The aim of the study was to identify patterns in learning when living with diabetes, from recently being diagnosed, and over a 3-year period. Materials and methods: A longitudinal qualitative descriptive design was used. Thirteen participants, with both type I and type II diabetes, were interviewed at three different occasions during a 3-year period. Qualitative content analysis was used in different steps in order to distinguish patterns. Findings: Five main patterns of learning were identified. Two of the patterns (I and II were characterized by gradually becoming comfortable living with diabetes, whereas for one pattern (IV living with diabetes became gradually more difficult. For pattern V living with diabetes was making only a limited impact on life, whereas for Pattern III there was a constant management of obstacles related to illness. The different patterns in the present study showed common and different ways of learning and using different learning strategies at different timespans. Conclusion: The present study showed that duration of illness is not of importance for how far a person has come in his own learning process. A person-centered care is needed to meet the different and changing needs of persons living with diabetes in relation to learning to live with a lifelong illness.

  8. Interaction of Learner Characteristics with Learning from Three Models of the Periodic Table.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehman, Jeffrey R.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Explored the effects of learning on structural modifications to the periodic table; the location of a periodic table within instructional materials; and the presence of a two-page schema showing relationships between the topics explained in the written materials and the periodic table. Results obtained from 160 students are reported and discussed.…

  9. The Impact of Learning Curve Model Selection and Criteria for Cost Estimation Accuracy in the DoD

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    different in the future due to machines” • Heightened scrutiny of cost estimates • Budget Control Act of 2011 seeks to reduce federal deficit ...qÜáêíÉÉåíÜ=^ååì~ä= ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ= póãéçëáìã= qÜìêëÇ~ó=pÉëëáçåë= sçäìãÉ=ff= = The Impact of Learning Curve Model Selection and Criteria for Cost...Assistant Division Director, Institute for Defense Analyses Bruce Harmon, Research Staff Member, Institute for Defense Analyses The Impact of Learning

  10. Experience curve for natural gas production by hydraulic fracturing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, Rokuhei; Greenfield, Carl; Pogue, Katie; Zwaan, Bob van der

    2017-01-01

    From 2007 to 2012 shale gas production in the US expanded at an astounding average growth rate of over 50%/yr, and thereby increased nearly tenfold over this short time period alone. Hydraulic fracturing technology, or “fracking”, as well as new directional drilling techniques, played key roles in this shale gas revolution, by allowing for extraction of natural gas from previously unviable shale resources. Although hydraulic fracturing technology had been around for decades, it only recently became commercially attractive for large-scale implementation. As the production of shale gas rapidly increased in the US over the past decade, the wellhead price of natural gas dropped substantially. In this paper we express the relationship between wellhead price and cumulative natural gas output in terms of an experience curve, and obtain a learning rate of 13% for the industry using hydraulic fracturing technology. This learning rate represents a measure for the know-how and skills accumulated thus far by the US shale gas industry. The use of experience curves for renewable energy options such as solar and wind power has allowed analysts, practitioners, and policy makers to assess potential price reductions, and underlying cost decreases, for these technologies in the future. The reasons for price reductions of hydraulic fracturing are fundamentally different from those behind renewable energy technologies – hence they cannot be directly compared – and hydraulic fracturing may soon reach, or maybe has already attained, a lower bound for further price reductions, for instance as a result of its water requirements or environmental footprint. Yet, understanding learning-by-doing phenomena as expressed by an industry-wide experience curve for shale gas production can be useful for strategic planning in the gas sector, as well as assist environmental policy design, and serve more broadly as input for projections of energy system developments. - Highlights: • Hydraulic

  11. Retroperitoneal laparoscopic nephrectomy: the effect of the learning curve, and concentrating expertise, on operating times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Adrian; Maoate, Kiki; Beasley, Spencer

    2010-05-01

    Laparoscopic nephrectomy is an accepted alternative to open nephrectomy. We analyzed our first 80 procedures of laparoscopic nephrectomy to evaluate the effect of experience and configuration of service on operative times. A retrospective review of 80 consecutive children who underwent retroperitoneal laparoscopic nephrectomy or heminephrectomy during an 11-year period from 1997 at Christchurch Hospital (Christchurch, New Zealand) was conducted. Operative times, in relation to the experience of the surgeon for this procedure, were analyzed. Four surgeons, assisted by an annually rotating trainee registrar, performed the procedure in 26 girls and 54 boys (range, 8 months to 15 years). Operating times ranged from 38 to 225 minutes (mean, 104). The average operative time fell from 105 to 90 minutes. One surgeon performed 40% of the procedures and assisted with a further 55%. The operative times for all surgeons showed a tendency to reduce, but this was not marked. Most procedures were performed by two surgeons working together, although one surgeon was involved in the majority of cases. The lead surgeon is often assisted by a fellow consultant colleague. Operative times were influenced by experience, but not markedly so. The shorter operative times and minimal "learning curve," compared with other reported series, may, in part, be due to the involvement of two surgeons experienced in laparoscopy for the majority of cases.

  12. A Hybrid Algorithm for Period Analysis from Multiband Data with Sparse and Irregular Sampling for Arbitrary Light-curve Shapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Abhijit; Vivas, A. Katherina

    2017-12-01

    Ongoing and future surveys with repeat imaging in multiple bands are producing (or will produce) time-spaced measurements of brightness, resulting in the identification of large numbers of variable sources in the sky. A large fraction of these are periodic variables: compilations of these are of scientific interest for a variety of purposes. Unavoidably, the data sets from many such surveys not only have sparse sampling, but also have embedded frequencies in the observing cadence that beat against the natural periodicities of any object under investigation. Such limitations can make period determination ambiguous and uncertain. For multiband data sets with asynchronous measurements in multiple passbands, we wish to maximally use the information on periodicity in a manner that is agnostic of differences in the light-curve shapes across the different channels. Given large volumes of data, computational efficiency is also at a premium. This paper develops and presents a computationally economic method for determining periodicity that combines the results from two different classes of period-determination algorithms. The underlying principles are illustrated through examples. The effectiveness of this approach for combining asynchronously sampled measurements in multiple observables that share an underlying fundamental frequency is also demonstrated.

  13. The learning curve to achieve satisfactory completion rates in upper GI endoscopy: an analysis of a national training database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, S T; Hancox, A; Mohammed, M A; Ismail, T; Griffiths, E A; Valori, R; Dunckley, P

    2017-06-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the number of OGDs (oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopies) trainees need to perform to acquire competency in terms of successful unassisted completion to the second part of the duodenum 95% of the time. OGD data were retrieved from the trainee e-portfolio developed by the Joint Advisory Group on GI Endoscopy (JAG) in the UK. All trainees were included unless they were known to have a baseline experience of >20 procedures or had submitted data for 90% trainees had attained a 95% completion rate. Total number of OGDs performed, trainee age and experience in lower GI endoscopy were factors independently associated with OGD completion. There are limited published data on the OGD learning curve. This is the largest study to date analysing the learning curve for competency acquisition. The JAG competency requirement for 200 procedures appears appropriate. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  14. Early Outcomes of Endoscopic Vein Harvesting during the Initial Learning Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do Yeon Kim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The endoscopic vein harvesting (EVH method has been used in coronary artery bypass surgery in many countries. We started using the EVH method recently, and investigated the results during the early learning period. Methods: Between March 2012 and June 2014, 75 patients (31 patients in the EVH method group, and 44 patients in the open method group who underwent isolated first-time coronary artery bypass grafting using vein grafts were retrospectively analyzed with respect to the early outcomes including graft patency and risk factors for leg wound complications. For assessing the patency of vein graft, we performed coronary computed tomography angiography during the immediate postoperative period and 6 months later. Results: Mean harvesting time of endoscopic method was about 15 minutes. Patency rate during the immediate operative period and the 6-month patency rate were similar between the two groups (postoperative period: EVH 100% vs. open method 94.4%, p=0.493; at 6 months: EVH 93.3% vs. open method 90.9%, p=0.791. Leg wound complications occurred more frequently in the open method group (EVH 3.2% vs. open method 13.6%, p=0.127. According to the analysis, age was an independent risk factor for leg wound complications. Conclusion: EVH is a feasible method even for beginners and can be performed satisfactorily during their learning period.

  15. Efficacy of tension-free vaginal tape compared with transobturator tape in the treatment of stress urinary incontinence in women: analysis of learning curve, perioperative changes of voiding function

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background In this study, by comparing TVT surgery and TOT surgery for stress urinary incontinence in women, the characteristics and learning curves of both operative methods were studied. Methods A total of 83 women with stress urinary incontinence treated with tension-free vaginal tape (TVT) (n = 38) or transobturator tape (TOT) (n = 45) at Saiseikai Central Hospital between April 2004 and September 2009 were included. We compare the outcomes and learning curves between TVT surgery and TOT surgery. In statistical analysis, Student's t test, Fisher's exact test, and Mann-Whitney's U test were used. Results The surgical durations were 37.4 ± 15.7 minutes with TVT surgery and 31.0 ± 8.3 minutes with TOT surgery. A longer period of time was required for TVT surgery (p = 0.025). The residual urine at post-operative day 1 was higher in TVT surgery (25.9 ± 44.2 ml) than in TOT surgery (10.6 ± 19.2 ml) (p = 0.0452). The surgical duration of TVT surgery was shortened after the operator had performed 15 operations (p = 0.019). Conclusions In comparison of TVT surgery and TOT surgery, the surgical duration of TVT surgery was longer and the residual urine of TVT surgery was higher at post-operative day 1. Surgical experience could shorten the duration of TVT surgery. PMID:21726448

  16. Efficacy of tension-free vaginal tape compared with transobturator tape in the treatment of stress urinary incontinence in women: analysis of learning curve, perioperative changes of voiding function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanai Kunimitsu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this study, by comparing TVT surgery and TOT surgery for stress urinary incontinence in women, the characteristics and learning curves of both operative methods were studied. Methods A total of 83 women with stress urinary incontinence treated with tension-free vaginal tape (TVT (n = 38 or transobturator tape (TOT (n = 45 at Saiseikai Central Hospital between April 2004 and September 2009 were included. We compare the outcomes and learning curves between TVT surgery and TOT surgery. In statistical analysis, Student's t test, Fisher's exact test, and Mann-Whitney's U test were used. Results The surgical durations were 37.4 ± 15.7 minutes with TVT surgery and 31.0 ± 8.3 minutes with TOT surgery. A longer period of time was required for TVT surgery (p = 0.025. The residual urine at post-operative day 1 was higher in TVT surgery (25.9 ± 44.2 ml than in TOT surgery (10.6 ± 19.2 ml (p = 0.0452. The surgical duration of TVT surgery was shortened after the operator had performed 15 operations (p = 0.019. Conclusions In comparison of TVT surgery and TOT surgery, the surgical duration of TVT surgery was longer and the residual urine of TVT surgery was higher at post-operative day 1. Surgical experience could shorten the duration of TVT surgery.

  17. Laparoscopic colorectal surgery in learning curve: Role of implementation of a standardized technique and recovery protocol. A cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luglio, Gaetano; De Palma, Giovanni Domenico; Tarquini, Rachele; Giglio, Mariano Cesare; Sollazzo, Viviana; Esposito, Emanuela; Spadarella, Emanuela; Peltrini, Roberto; Liccardo, Filomena; Bucci, Luigi

    2015-01-01

    Background Despite the proven benefits, laparoscopic colorectal surgery is still under utilized among surgeons. A steep learning is one of the causes of its limited adoption. Aim of the study is to determine the feasibility and morbidity rate after laparoscopic colorectal surgery in a single institution, “learning curve” experience, implementing a well standardized operative technique and recovery protocol. Methods The first 50 patients treated laparoscopically were included. All the procedures were performed by a trainee surgeon, supervised by a consultant surgeon, according to the principle of complete mesocolic excision with central vascular ligation or TME. Patients underwent a fast track recovery programme. Recovery parameters, short-term outcomes, morbidity and mortality have been assessed. Results Type of resections: 20 left side resections, 8 right side resections, 14 low anterior resection/TME, 5 total colectomy and IRA, 3 total panproctocolectomy and pouch. Mean operative time: 227 min; mean number of lymph-nodes: 18.7. Conversion rate: 8%. Mean time to flatus: 1.3 days; Mean time to solid stool: 2.3 days. Mean length of hospital stay: 7.2 days. Overall morbidity: 24%; major morbidity (Dindo–Clavien III): 4%. No anastomotic leak, no mortality, no 30-days readmission. Conclusion Proper laparoscopic colorectal surgery is safe and leads to excellent results in terms of recovery and short term outcomes, even in a learning curve setting. Key factors for better outcomes and shortening the learning curve seem to be the adoption of a standardized technique and training model along with the strict supervision of an expert colorectal surgeon. PMID:25859386

  18. Effects of Pathologic Stage on the Learning Curve for Radical Prostatectomy: Evidence That Recurrence in Organ-Confined Cancer Is Largely Related to Inadequate Surgical Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickers, Andrew J.; Bianco, Fernando J.; Gonen, Mithat; Cronin, Angel M.; Eastham, James A.; Schrag, Deborah; Klein, Eric A.; Reuther, Alwyn M.; Kattan, Michael W.; Pontes, J. Edson; Scardino, Peter T.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives We previously demonstrated that there is a learning curve for open radical prostatectomy. We sought to determine whether the effects of the learning curve are modified by pathologic stage. Methods The study included 7765 eligible prostate cancer patients treated with open radical prostatectomy by one of 72 surgeons. Surgeon experience was coded as the total number of radical prostatectomies conducted by the surgeon prior to a patient’s surgery. Multivariable regression models of survival time were used to evaluate the association between surgeon experience and biochemical recurrence, with adjustment for PSA, stage, and grade. Analyses were conducted separately for patients with organ-confined and locally advanced disease. Results Five-year recurrence-free probability for patients with organ-confined disease approached 100% for the most experienced surgeons. Conversely, the learning curve for patients with locally advanced disease reached a plateau at approximately 70%, suggesting that about a third of these patients cannot be cured by surgery alone. Conclusions Excellent rates of cancer control for patients with organ-confined disease treated by the most experienced surgeons suggest that the primary reason such patients recur is inadequate surgical technique. PMID:18207316

  19. Results of Casting in Severe Curves in Infantile Scoliosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasikelis, Peter J; Carpenter, Ashley M

    2018-04-01

    Previous work has demonstrated best results for casting in infantile scoliosis when the curves are small and the child begins casting under 2 years of age. This study examines if casting can delay the need for growth friendly instrumentation in severe curves (50 to 106 degrees) and how the comorbidities of syrinx or genetic syndromes affected outcomes. All children undergoing casting for scoliosis at a single institution over an 8-year period were examined. Inclusion criteria included initial curve at first casting of ≥50 degrees, age ≤3 years at the start of casting, and a minimum follow-up of 3 years. Of 148 children undergoing casting during this period, 44 met our inclusion criteria. All children underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Ten children with a syrinx were identified. Ten children had known genetic syndromes (2 who also had a syrinx). The 26 children without these comorbidities were considered idiopathic. Curve magnitude ranged from 50 to 106 degrees. Nine of the 26 (35%) children in the children with idiopathic curves demonstrated resolution of their curves, while only 3 of the remaining 18 (17%) did. Of the children that did not have resolution of their curves, 14 were maintained over the entire follow-up period to within 15 degrees of their initial curve and 13 were improved 15 degrees or more. Only 5 children had an increase of 15 degrees or more over the follow-up period and 4 of these have undergone growth friendly instrumentation after a mean delay from initial cast of 71 months (range, 18 to 100 mo). This study demonstrates that even in severe curves, casting was effective in delaying instrumentation in all cases, and led to curve resolution of the curves in 12 of 44 children. Level III-case control study.

  20. The future role of photovoltaics: A learning curve versus portfolio perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, Johan

    2007-01-01

    The current cost disadvantage of photovoltaics (PV) risks to reduce its relevance in climate policy strategies. Depending on the used assumptions, electricity from PV can become competitive between 2015 and 2040. Cost competitiveness is, however, a conditional criterion and as an alternative to the learning curve perspective, the future role of PV in electricity production is assessed from a portfolio theory or Capital Asset Pricing Model perspective. In this analysis, the focus is on the input price risks. Fossil fuel price volatility can strongly reduce the financial return of conventional generating technologies. From a welfare perspective, energy planners should try to minimise this risk by adding risk-neutral or no-risk technologies to their portfolio. With an analysis for the year 2025, we illustrate how the addition of renewable capacity to an existing portfolio can lower total portfolio risk without a significant reduction of profitability. PV then emerges as an attractive technology, especially once the best locations for wind energy are already developed

  1. The future role of photovoltaics: a learning curve versus portfolio perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, J.

    2007-01-01

    The current cost disadvantage of photovoltaics (PV) risks to reduce its relevance in climate policy strategies. Depending on the used assumptions, electricity from PV can become competitive between 2015 and 2040. Cost competitiveness is, however, a conditional criterion and as an alternative to the learning curve perspective, the future role of PV in electricity production is assessed from a portfolio theory or Capital Asset Pricing Model perspective. In this analysis, the focus is on the input price risks. Fossil fuel price volatility can strongly reduce the financial return of conventional generating technologies. From a welfare perspective, energy planners should try to minimise this risk by adding risk-neutral or no-risk technologies to their portfolio. With an analysis for the year 2025, we illustrate how the addition of renewable capacity to an existing portfolio can lower total portfolio risk without a significant reduction of profitability. PV then emerges as an attractive technology, especially once the best locations for wind energy are already developed. (author)

  2. An Optical Low-frequency Quasi-Periodic Oscillation in the Kepler Light Curve of an Active Galaxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushotzky, Richard; Smith, Krista Lynne; Boyd, Patricia; Wagoner, Robert

    2018-01-01

    We report the discovery of a candidate quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) in the optical light curve of KIC 9650712, a Seyfert 1 galaxy in the original Kepler field. After the development and application of a pipeline for Kepler data specific to active galactic nuclei (AGN), one of our sample of 21 AGN selected by infrared photometry and X-ray flux demonstrates a peak in the power spectrum at 10-6.58 Hz, corresponding to a temporal period of 44 days. >From optical spectroscopy, we measure the black hole mass of this AGN as log M = 8.17 M_sun. Despite this high mass, the optical spectrum of KIC 9650712 bears many similarities to Narrow Line Seyfert 1 (NLS1) galaxies, including strong Fe II emission and a low [O III]/Hβ ratio. So far, X-ray QPOs have primarily been seen in NLS1 galaxies. Finally, we find that this frequency lies along a correlation between low-frequency QPOs and black hole mass from stellar and intermediate mass black holes to AGN, similar to the known correlation in high-frequency QPOs.

  3. The learning curve of laparoscopic treatment of rectal cancer does not increase morbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luján, Juan; Gonzalez, Antonio; Abrisqueta, Jesús; Hernandez, Quiteria; Valero, Graciela; Abellán, Israel; Frutos, María Dolores; Parrilla, Pascual

    2014-01-01

    The treatment of rectal cancer via laparoscopy is controversial due to its technical complexity. Several randomized prospective studies have demonstrated clear advantages for the patient with similar oncological results to those of open surgery, although during the learning of this surgical technique there may be an increase in complications and a worse prognosis. Our aim is to analyze how the learning curve for rectal cancer via laparoscopy influences intra- and postoperative results and oncological markers. A retrospective review was conducted of the first 120 patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery for rectal neoplasia. The operations were performed by the same surgical team with a wide experience in the treatment of open colorectal cancer and qualified to perform advanced laparoscopic surgery. We analyzed sex, ASA, tumour location, neoadjuvant treatment, surgical technique, operating time, conversion, postoperative complications, length of hospital stay, number of lymph nodes, stage and involvement of margins. Significant differences were observed with regard to surgical time (224 min in the first group, 204 min in the second group), with a higher rate of conversion in the first group (22.5%) than in the second (11.3%). No significant differences were noted for rate of conservative sphincter surgery, length of hospital stay, post-surgical complications, number of affected/isolated lymph nodes or affected circumferential and distal margins. It is possible to learn this complex surgical technique without compromising the patient's safety and oncological outcome. Copyright © 2013 AEC. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  4. A randomized control trial to evaluate the importance of pre-training basic laparoscopic psychomotor skills upon the learning curve of laparoscopic intra-corporeal knot tying.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinas, Carlos Roger; Binda, Maria Mercedes; Sisa, Cesar Manuel; Campo, Rudi

    2017-01-01

    Training of basic laparoscopic psychomotor skills improves the acquisition of more advanced laparoscopic tasks, such as laparoscopic intra-corporeal knot tying (LICK). This randomized controlled trial was designed to evaluate whether pre-training of basic skills, as laparoscopic camera navigation (LCN), hand-eye coordination (HEC), and bimanual coordination (BMC), and the combination of the three of them, has any beneficial effect upon the learning curve of LICK. The study was carried out in a private center in Asunción, Paraguay, by 80 medical students without any experience in surgery. Four laparoscopic tasks were performed in the ENCILAP model (LCN, HEC, BMC, and LICK). Participants were allocated to 5 groups (G1-G5). The study was structured in 5 phases. In phase 1, they underwent a base-line test ( T 1 ) for all tasks (1 repetition of each task in consecutive order). In phase 2, participants underwent different training programs (30 consecutive repetitions) for basic tasks according to the group they belong to (G1: none; G2: LCN; G3: HEC; G4: BMC; and G5: LCN, HEC, and BMC). In phase 3, they were tested again ( T 2 ) in the same manner than at T 1 . In phase 4, they underwent a standardized training program for LICK (30 consecutive repetitions). In phase 5, they were tested again ( T 3 ) in the same manner than at T 1 and T 2 . At each repetition, scoring was based on the time taken for task completion system. The scores were plotted and non-linear regression models were used to fit the learning curves to one- and two-phase exponential decay models for each participant (individual curves) and for each group (group curves). The LICK group learning curves fitted better to the two-phase exponential decay model. From these curves, the starting points ( Y 0), the point after HEC training/before LICK training ( Y 1), the Plateau, and the rate constants ( K ) were calculated. All groups, except for G4, started from a similar point ( Y 0). At Y 1, G5 scored already

  5. From curve fitting to machine learning an illustrative guide to scientific data analysis and computational intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Zielesny, Achim

    2016-01-01

    This successful book provides in its second edition an interactive and illustrative guide from two-dimensional curve fitting to multidimensional clustering and machine learning with neural networks or support vector machines. Along the way topics like mathematical optimization or evolutionary algorithms are touched. All concepts and ideas are outlined in a clear cut manner with graphically depicted plausibility arguments and a little elementary mathematics. The major topics are extensively outlined with exploratory examples and applications. The primary goal is to be as illustrative as possible without hiding problems and pitfalls but to address them. The character of an illustrative cookbook is complemented with specific sections that address more fundamental questions like the relation between machine learning and human intelligence. All topics are completely demonstrated with the computing platform Mathematica and the Computational Intelligence Packages (CIP), a high-level function library developed with M...

  6. Playing off the curve - testing quantitative predictions of skill acquisition theories in development of chess performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaschler, Robert; Progscha, Johanna; Smallbone, Kieran; Ram, Nilam; Bilalić, Merim

    2014-01-01

    Learning curves have been proposed as an adequate description of learning processes, no matter whether the processes manifest within minutes or across years. Different mechanisms underlying skill acquisition can lead to differences in the shape of learning curves. In the current study, we analyze the tournament performance data of 1383 chess players who begin competing at young age and play tournaments for at least 10 years. We analyze the performance development with the goal to test the adequacy of learning curves, and the skill acquisition theories they are based on, for describing and predicting expertise acquisition. On the one hand, we show that the skill acquisition theories implying a negative exponential learning curve do a better job in both describing early performance gains and predicting later trajectories of chess performance than those theories implying a power function learning curve. On the other hand, the learning curves of a large proportion of players show systematic qualitative deviations from the predictions of either type of skill acquisition theory. While skill acquisition theories predict larger performance gains in early years and smaller gains in later years, a substantial number of players begin to show substantial improvements with a delay of several years (and no improvement in the first years), deviations not fully accounted for by quantity of practice. The current work adds to the debate on how learning processes on a small time scale combine to large-scale changes.

  7. Establishing the minimal number of virtual reality simulator training sessions necessary to develop basic laparoscopic skills competence: evaluation of the learning curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Jordao Duarte

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Medical literature is scarce on information to define a basic skills training program for laparoscopic surgery (peg and transferring, cutting, clipping. The aim of this study was to determine the minimal number of simulator sessions of basic laparoscopic tasks necessary to elaborate an optimal virtual reality training curriculum. Materials and Methods Eleven medical students with no previous laparoscopic experience were spontaneously enrolled. They were submitted to simulator training sessions starting at level 1 (Immersion Lap VR, San Jose, CA, including sequentially camera handling, peg and transfer, clipping and cutting. Each student trained twice a week until 10 sessions were completed. The score indexes were registered and analyzed. The total of errors of the evaluation sequences (camera, peg and transfer, clipping and cutting were computed and thereafter, they were correlated to the total of items evaluated in each step, resulting in a success percent ratio for each student for each set of each completed session. Thereafter, we computed the cumulative success rate in 10 sessions, obtaining an analysis of the learning process. By non-linear regression the learning curve was analyzed. Results By the non-linear regression method the learning curve was analyzed and a r2 = 0.73 (p < 0.001 was obtained, being necessary 4.26 (∼five sessions to reach the plateau of 80% of the estimated acquired knowledge, being that 100% of the students have reached this level of skills. From the fifth session till the 10th, the gain of knowledge was not significant, although some students reached 96% of the expected improvement. Conclusions This study revealed that after five simulator training sequential sessions the students' learning curve reaches a plateau. The forward sessions in the same difficult level do not promote any improvement in laparoscopic basic surgical skills, and the students should be introduced to a more difficult training

  8. Establishing the minimal number of virtual reality simulator training sessions necessary to develop basic laparoscopic skills competence: evaluation of the learning curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Ricardo Jordão; Cury, José; Oliveira, Luis Carlos Neves; Srougi, Miguel

    2013-01-01

    Medical literature is scarce on information to define a basic skills training program for laparoscopic surgery (peg and transferring, cutting, clipping). The aim of this study was to determine the minimal number of simulator sessions of basic laparoscopic tasks necessary to elaborate an optimal virtual reality training curriculum. Eleven medical students with no previous laparoscopic experience were spontaneously enrolled. They were submitted to simulator training sessions starting at level 1 (Immersion Lap VR, San Jose, CA), including sequentially camera handling, peg and transfer, clipping and cutting. Each student trained twice a week until 10 sessions were completed. The score indexes were registered and analyzed. The total of errors of the evaluation sequences (camera, peg and transfer, clipping and cutting) were computed and thereafter, they were correlated to the total of items evaluated in each step, resulting in a success percent ratio for each student for each set of each completed session. Thereafter, we computed the cumulative success rate in 10 sessions, obtaining an analysis of the learning process. By non-linear regression the learning curve was analyzed. By the non-linear regression method the learning curve was analyzed and a r2 = 0.73 (p sessions) to reach the plateau of 80% of the estimated acquired knowledge, being that 100% of the students have reached this level of skills. From the fifth session till the 10th, the gain of knowledge was not significant, although some students reached 96% of the expected improvement. This study revealed that after five simulator training sequential sessions the students' learning curve reaches a plateau. The forward sessions in the same difficult level do not promote any improvement in laparoscopic basic surgical skills, and the students should be introduced to a more difficult training tasks level.

  9. Retrospective North American CFL Experience Curve Analysis and Correlation to Deployment Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wei, Max [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Retrospective experience curves are a useful tool for understanding historic technology development, and can contribute to investment program analysis and future cost estimation efforts. This work documents our development of an analysis approach for deriving retrospective experience curves with a variable learning rate, and its application to develop an experience curve for compact fluorescent lamps for the global and North American markets over the years 1990-2007. Uncertainties and assumptions involved in interpreting data for our experience curve development are discussed, including the processing and transformation of empirical data, the selection of system boundaries, and the identification of historical changes in the learning rate over the course of 15 years. In the results that follow, we find that that the learning rate has changed at least once from 1990-2007. We also explore if, and to what degree, public deployment programs may have contributed to an increased technology learning rate in North America. We observe correlations between the changes in the learning rate and the initiation of new policies, abrupt technological advances, including improvements to ballast technology, and economic and political events such as trade tariffs and electricity prices. Finally, we discuss how the findings of this work (1) support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective analysis and (2) may imply that investments in technological research and development have contributed to a change in market adoption and penetration.

  10. Impact of learning curve and technical changes on dosimetry in low-dose brachytherapy for prostate cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Fur, E. [CHU Brest (France). Radiation Therapy Dept.; Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Brest (France). Faculte de Medecine et des Sciences de la Sante; Malhaire, J.P.; Baverez, D.; Schlurmann, F. [CHU Brest (France). Radiation Therapy Dept.; Delage, F.; Perrouin-Verbe, M.A. [CHU Brest (France). Urology Dept.; Guerif, S. [University Hospital La Miletrie, Poitiers (France). Radiation Therapy Dept.; Poitiers Univ. (France); Fournier, G.; Valeri, A. [CHU Brest (France). Urology Dept.; Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Brest (France). Faculte de Medecine et des Sciences de la Sante; Universite Europeenne de Bretagne, Rennes (France); APHP, Hopital Tenon, Paris (France). CeRe.PP; Pradier, O. [CHU Brest (France). Radiation Therapy Dept.; Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Brest (France). Faculte de Medecine et des Sciences de la Sante; Universite Europeenne de Bretagne, Rennes (France); CHU Brest (France). LaTIM, INSERM U650

    2012-12-15

    Purpose: To assess the impact of experience and technical changes on peri- and postimplantation (1 month later) dosimetry for permanent prostate brachytherapy (PPB). Patients and methods: From July 2003 to May 2010, 150 prostate cancer patients underwent low-dose, loose-seed I{sup 125} PPB as monotherapy with intraoperative planning. Patients were divided into three groups - P1 (n = 64), P2 (n = 45), P3 (n = 41) - according to the technical changes that occurred during the study period: use of an automatic stepper at the beginning of P2 and a high-frequency ultrasound probe in P3. Peri- and postimplantation dosimetric parameters (on day 30) were reported: D90 (dose received by 90% of prostate volume), V100 and V150 (prostate volume receiving, respectively, 100% and 150% of the prescribed dose), D2 cc and D0.1 cc (doses received by 2 cc and 0.1 cc of the rectum), R100 (rectum volume that received 100% of the prescribed dose), and D10 and D30 (doses received by 10% and 30% of the urethra, only during peri-implantation). Results: We observed a decrease in the number of needles and seeds used over time. The mean peri-implantation D90 was 187.52 Gy without a significant difference between the three periods (p = 0.48). The postimplantation D90, V100, and V150 parameters were, respectively, 168.3 Gy, 91.9%, and 55% with no significant difference between the three periods. The peri-implantation and postimplantation D0.1 cc and R100 significantly decreased over time; on day 30: D0.1 cc P1 = 223.1 Gy vs. D0.1 cc P3 = 190.4 Gy (p = 8.10- 5) and R100 P1 = 1.06 cc vs. R100 P3 = 0.53 cc (p = 0.0008). Conclusion: We observed a learning curve for the implantation parameters, which led to a significant decrease in the rectal doses without having any impact on the prostate dosimetric parameters. (orig.)

  11. Impact of learning curve and technical changes on dosimetry in low-dose brachytherapy for prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Fur, E.; Fournier, G.; Valeri, A.; Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Brest; Universite Europeenne de Bretagne, Rennes; APHP, Hopital Tenon, Paris; Pradier, O.; Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Brest; Universite Europeenne de Bretagne, Rennes; CHU Brest

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the impact of experience and technical changes on peri- and postimplantation (1 month later) dosimetry for permanent prostate brachytherapy (PPB). Patients and methods: From July 2003 to May 2010, 150 prostate cancer patients underwent low-dose, loose-seed I 125 PPB as monotherapy with intraoperative planning. Patients were divided into three groups - P1 (n = 64), P2 (n = 45), P3 (n = 41) - according to the technical changes that occurred during the study period: use of an automatic stepper at the beginning of P2 and a high-frequency ultrasound probe in P3. Peri- and postimplantation dosimetric parameters (on day 30) were reported: D90 (dose received by 90% of prostate volume), V100 and V150 (prostate volume receiving, respectively, 100% and 150% of the prescribed dose), D2 cc and D0.1 cc (doses received by 2 cc and 0.1 cc of the rectum), R100 (rectum volume that received 100% of the prescribed dose), and D10 and D30 (doses received by 10% and 30% of the urethra, only during peri-implantation). Results: We observed a decrease in the number of needles and seeds used over time. The mean peri-implantation D90 was 187.52 Gy without a significant difference between the three periods (p = 0.48). The postimplantation D90, V100, and V150 parameters were, respectively, 168.3 Gy, 91.9%, and 55% with no significant difference between the three periods. The peri-implantation and postimplantation D0.1 cc and R100 significantly decreased over time; on day 30: D0.1 cc P1 = 223.1 Gy vs. D0.1 cc P3 = 190.4 Gy (p = 8.10- 5) and R100 P1 = 1.06 cc vs. R100 P3 = 0.53 cc (p = 0.0008). Conclusion: We observed a learning curve for the implantation parameters, which led to a significant decrease in the rectal doses without having any impact on the prostate dosimetric parameters. (orig.)

  12. Fluoroscopy Learning Curve in Hip Arthroscopy-A Single Surgeon's Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kevin M; Duplantier, Neil L; Crump, Kimbelyn H; Delgado, Domenica A; Sullivan, Stephanie L; McCulloch, Patrick C; Harris, Joshua D

    2017-10-01

    To determine if (1) absorbed radiation dose and (2) fluoroscopy time decreased with experience over the first 100 cases of a single surgeon's hip arthroscopy practice. Subjects who underwent hip arthroscopy for symptomatic femoroacetabular impingement and labral injury were eligible for analysis. Inclusion criteria included the first 100 subjects who underwent hip arthroscopy by a single surgeon (December 2013 to December 2014). Subject demographics, procedure details, fluoroscopy absorbed dose (milligray [mGy]), and time were recorded. Subjects were categorized by date of surgery to one of 4 possible groups (25 per group). One-way analysis of variance was used to determine if a significant difference in dose (mGy) or time was present between groups. Simple linear regression analysis was performed to determine the relation between case number and both radiation dose and fluoroscopy time. Subjects underwent labral repair (n = 93), cam osteoplasty (n = 90), and pincer acetabuloplasty (n = 65). There was a significant (P arthroscopy practice learning curve. Level IV, therapeutic, retrospective, noncomparative case series. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. The Learning Curve in neurofeedback of Peter Van Deusen: A review article

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdenilson Ribeiro Ribas

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The Learning Curve (TLC in neurofeedback concept emerged after Peter Van Deusen compiled the results of articles on the expected electrical activity of the brain. This concept was subsequently tested on patients at four clinics in Atlanta between 1994 and 2001. The aim of this paper was to report the historical aspects of TLC. Articles published on the electronic databases MEDLINE/PubMed and Web of Science were reviewed. During patient evaluation, TLC investigates categories called disconnected, hot temporal lobes, reversal of alpha and beta waves, blocking, locking, and filtering or processing. This enables neuroscientists to use their training designs and, by means of behavioral psychology, to work on neuroregulation, as self-regulation for patients. TLC shows the relationships between electrical, mental and behavioral activity in patients. It also identifies details of patterns that can assist physicians in their choice of treatment.

  14. The New Keynesian Phillips Curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi

    This paper provides a survey on the recent literature on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: the controversies surrounding its microfoundation and estimation, the approaches that have been tried to improve its empirical fit and the challenges it faces adapting to the open-economy framework. The new......, learning or state-dependant pricing. The introduction of openeconomy factors into the new Keynesian Phillips curve complicate matters further as it must capture the nexus between price setting, inflation and the exchange rate. This is nevertheless a crucial feature for any model to be used for inflation...... forecasting in a small open economy like Iceland....

  15. How Good Is Good: Improved Tracking and Managing of Safety Goals, Performance Indicators, Production Targets and Significant Events Using Learning Curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, Rommey B.; Saull, John W.

    2002-01-01

    We show a new way to track and measure safety and performance using learning curves derived on a mathematical basis. When unusual or abnormal events occur in plants and equipment, the regulator and good management practice requires they be reported, investigated, understood and rectified. In addition to reporting so-called 'significant events', both management and the regulator often set targets for individual and collective performance, which are used for both reward and criticism. For almost completely safe systems, like nuclear power plants, commercial aircraft and chemical facilities, many parameters are tracked and measured. Continuous improvement has to be demonstrated, as well as meeting reduced occurrence rates, which are set as management goals or targets. This process usually takes the form of statistics for availability of plant and equipment, forced or unplanned maintenance outage, loss of safety function, safety or procedural violations, etc. These are often rolled up into a set of so-called 'Performance Indicators' as measures of how well safety and operation is being managed at a given facility. The overall operating standards of an industry are also measured. A whole discipline is formed of tracking, measuring, reporting, managing and understanding the plethora of indicators and data. Decreasing occurrence rates and meeting or exceeding goals are seen and rewarded as virtues. Managers and operators need to know how good is their safety management system that has been adopted and used (and paid for), and whether it can itself be improved. We show the importance of accumulated experience in correctly measuring and tracking the decreasing event and error rates speculating a finite minimum rate. We show that the rate of improvement constitutes a measurable 'learning curve', and the attainment of the goals and targets can be affected by the adopted measures. We examine some of the available data on significant events, reportable occurrences, and loss of

  16. Learning curves of basic laparoscopic psychomotor skills in SINERGIA VR simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Peralta, L F; Sánchez-Margallo, F M; Moyano-Cuevas, J L; Pagador, J B; Enciso, S; Gómez-Aguilera, E J; Usón-Gargallo, J

    2012-11-01

    Surgical simulators are currently essential within any laparoscopic training program because they provide a low-stakes, reproducible and reliable environment to acquire basic skills. The purpose of this study is to determine the training learning curve based on different metrics corresponding to five tasks included in SINERGIA laparoscopic virtual reality simulator. Thirty medical students without surgical experience participated in the study. Five tasks of SINERGIA were included: Coordination, Navigation, Navigation and touch, Accurate grasping and Coordinated pulling. Each participant was trained in SINERGIA. This training consisted of eight sessions (R1-R8) of the five mentioned tasks and was carried out in two consecutive days with four sessions per day. A statistical analysis was made, and the results of R1, R4 and R8 were pair-wise compared with Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Significance is considered at P value psychomotor skills that can be trained in SINERGIA. Therefore, and based on these results together with previous works, SINERGIA could be used as training tool with a properly designed training program.

  17. Digital tomosynthesis for evaluating metastatic lung nodules: Nodule visibility, learning curves, and reading times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kyung Hee; Goo, Jin Mo; Lee, Sang Min; Park, Chang Min; Bahn, Young Eun; Kim, Hyung Jin; Song, Yong Sub; Hwang, Eui Jin

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate nodule visibility, learning curves, and reading times for digital tomosynthesis (DT). We included 80 patients who underwent computed tomography (CT) and DT before pulmonary metastasectomy. One experienced chest radiologist annotated all visible nodules on thin-section CT scans using computer-aided detection software. Two radiologists used CT as the reference standard and retrospectively graded the visibility of nodules on DT. Nodule detection performance was evaluated in four sessions of 20 cases each by six readers. After each session, readers were unblinded to the DT images by revealing the true-positive markings and were instructed to self-analyze their own misreads. Receiver-operating-characteristic curves were determined. Among 414 nodules on CT, 53.3% (221/414) were visible on DT. The main reason for not seeing a nodule on DT was small size (93.3%, < or = 5 mm). DT revealed a substantial number of malignant nodules (84.1%, 143/170). The proportion of malignant nodules among visible nodules on DT was significantly higher (64.7%, 143/221) than that on CT (41.1%, 170/414) (p < 0.001). Area under the curve (AUC) values at the initial session were > 0.8, and the average detection rate for malignant nodules was 85% (210/246). The inter-session analysis of the AUC showed no significant differences among the readers, and the detection rate for malignant nodules did not differ across sessions. A slight improvement in reading times was observed. Most malignant nodules > 5 mm were visible on DT. As nodule detection performance was high from the initial session, DT may be readily applicable for radiology residents and board-certified radiologists.

  18. Digital tomosynthesis for evaluating metastatic lung nodules: Nodule visibility, learning curves, and reading times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kyung Hee; Goo, Jin Mo; Lee, Sang Min; Park, Chang Min; Bahn, Young Eun; Kim, Hyung Jin; Song, Yong Sub; Hwang, Eui Jin [Dept. of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, and Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-04-15

    To evaluate nodule visibility, learning curves, and reading times for digital tomosynthesis (DT). We included 80 patients who underwent computed tomography (CT) and DT before pulmonary metastasectomy. One experienced chest radiologist annotated all visible nodules on thin-section CT scans using computer-aided detection software. Two radiologists used CT as the reference standard and retrospectively graded the visibility of nodules on DT. Nodule detection performance was evaluated in four sessions of 20 cases each by six readers. After each session, readers were unblinded to the DT images by revealing the true-positive markings and were instructed to self-analyze their own misreads. Receiver-operating-characteristic curves were determined. Among 414 nodules on CT, 53.3% (221/414) were visible on DT. The main reason for not seeing a nodule on DT was small size (93.3%, < or = 5 mm). DT revealed a substantial number of malignant nodules (84.1%, 143/170). The proportion of malignant nodules among visible nodules on DT was significantly higher (64.7%, 143/221) than that on CT (41.1%, 170/414) (p < 0.001). Area under the curve (AUC) values at the initial session were > 0.8, and the average detection rate for malignant nodules was 85% (210/246). The inter-session analysis of the AUC showed no significant differences among the readers, and the detection rate for malignant nodules did not differ across sessions. A slight improvement in reading times was observed. Most malignant nodules > 5 mm were visible on DT. As nodule detection performance was high from the initial session, DT may be readily applicable for radiology residents and board-certified radiologists.

  19. AN EXTENDED AND MORE SENSITIVE SEARCH FOR PERIODICITIES IN ROSSI X-RAY TIMING EXPLORER/ALL-SKY MONITOR X-RAY LIGHT CURVES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, Alan M.; Bradt, Hale V.; Chakrabarty, Deepto; Corbet, Robin H. D.; Harris, Robert J.

    2011-01-01

    We present the results of a systematic search in ∼14 years of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer All-Sky Monitor (ASM) data for evidence of periodicities. Two variations of the commonly used Fourier analysis search method have been employed to significantly improve upon the sensitivity achieved by Wen et al. in 2006, who also searched for periodicities in ASM data. In addition, the present search is comprehensive in terms of sources studied and frequency range covered, and has yielded the detection of the signatures of the orbital periods of eight low-mass X-ray binary systems and of ten high-mass X-ray binaries not listed in the tables of Wen et al. Orbital periods, epochs, signal amplitudes, modulation fractions, and folded light curves are given for each of these systems. Seven of the orbital periods are the most precise reported to date. In the course of this work, the 18.545 day orbital period of IGR J18483-0311 was co-discovered, and the first detections in X-rays were made of the ∼3.9 day orbital period of LMC X-1 and the ∼3.79 hr orbital period of 4U 1636-536. The results inform future searches for orbital and other periodicities in X-ray binaries.

  20. Assessment of Ex-Vitro Anaerobic Digestion Kinetics of Crop Residues Through First Order Exponential Models: Effect of LAG Phase Period and Curve Factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Razaque Sahito

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Kinetic studies of AD (Anaerobic Digestion process are useful to predict the performance of digesters and design appropriate digesters and also helpful in understanding inhibitory mechanisms of biodegradation. The aim of this study was to assess the anaerobic kinetics of crop residues digestion with buffalo dung. Seven crop residues namely, bagasse, banana plant waste, canola straw, cotton stalks, rice straw, sugarcane trash and wheat straw were selected from the field and were analyzed on MC (Moisture Contents, TS (Total Solids and VS (Volatile Solids with standard methods. In present study, three first order exponential models namely exponential model, exponential lag phase model and exponential curve factor model were used to assess the kinetics of the AD process of crop residues and the effect of lag phase and curve factor was analyzed based on statistical hypothesis testing and on information theory. Assessment of kinetics of the AD of crop residues and buffalo dung follows the first order kinetics. Out of the three models, the simple exponential model was the poorest model, while the first order exponential curve factor model is the best fit model. In addition to statistical hypothesis testing, the exponential curve factor model has least value of AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion and can generate methane production data more accurately. Furthermore, there is an inverse linear relationship between the lag phase period and the curve factor.

  1. Assessment of ex-vitro anaerobic digestion kinetics of crop residues through first order exponential models: effect of lag phase period and curve factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahito, A.R.; Brohi, K.M.

    2013-01-01

    Kinetic studies of AD (Anaerobic Digestion) process are useful to predict the performance of digesters and design appropriate digesters and also helpful in understanding inhibitory mechanisms of biodegradation. The aim of this study was to assess the anaerobic kinetics of crop residues digestion with buffalo dung. Seven crop residues namely, bagasse, banana plant waste, canola straw, cotton stalks, rice straw, sugarcane trash and wheat straw were selected from the field and were analyzed on MC (Moisture Contents), TS (Total Solids) and VS (Volatile Solids) with standard methods. In present study, three first order exponential models namely exponential model, exponential lag phase model and exponential curve factor model were used to assess the kinetics of the AD process of crop residues and the effect of lag phase and curve factor was analyzed based on statistical hypothesis testing and on information theory. Assessment of kinetics of the AD of crop residues and buffalo dung follows the first order kinetics. Out of the three models, the simple exponential model was the poorest model, while the first order exponential curve factor model is the best fit model. In addition to statistical hypothesis testing, the exponential curve factor model has least value of AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) and can generate methane production data more accurately. Furthermore, there is an inverse linear relationship between the lag phase period and the curve factor. (author)

  2. Learning curve of laparoscopy-assisted distal gastrectomy with systemic lymphadenectomy for early gastric cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Min-Chan Kim; Ghap-Joong Jung; Hyung-Ho Kim

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the nature of the "learning curve" for laparoscopy-assisted distal gastrectomy (LADG) with systemic lymphadenectomy for early gastric cancer. METHODS: The data of 90 consecutive patients with early gastric cancer who underwent LADG with systemic lymphadenectomy between April 2003 and November 2004 were reviewed. The 90 patients were divided into 9 sequential groups of 10 cases in each group and the average operative time of these 9 groups were determined. Other learning indicators, such as transfusion requirements, conversion rates to open surgery, postoperative complication, time to first flatus, and postoperative hospital stay, were evaluated. RESULTS: After the first 10 LADGs, the operative time reached its first plateau (230-240 min/operation) and then reached a second plateau (<200 min/operation) for the final 30 cases. Although a significant improvement in the operative time was noted after the first 50 cases, there were no significant differences in transfusion requirements, conversion rates to open surgery, postoperative complications, time to first flatus, or postoperative hospital stay between the groups. CONCLUSION: Based on operative time analysis, this study show that experience of 50 cases of LADG with systemic lymphadenectomy for early gastric cancer is required to achieve optimum proficiency.

  3. Rapid learning curve assessment in an ex vivo training system for microincisional glaucoma surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Yalong; Waxman, Susannah; Wang, Chao; Parikh, Hardik A; Bussel, Igor I; Loewen, Ralitsa T; Xia, Xiaobo; Lathrop, Kira L; Bilonick, Richard A; Loewen, Nils A

    2017-05-09

    Increasing prevalence and cost of glaucoma have increased the demand for surgeons well trained in newer, microincisional surgery. These procedures occur in a highly confined space, making them difficult to learn by observation or assistance alone as is currently done. We hypothesized that our ex vivo outflow model is sensitive enough to allow computing individual learning curves to quantify progress and refine techniques. Seven trainees performed nine trabectome-mediated ab interno trabeculectomies in pig eyes (n = 63). An expert surgeon rated the procedure using an Operating Room Score (ORS). The extent of outflow beds accessed was measured with canalograms. Data was fitted using mixed effect models. ORS reached a half-maximum on an asymptote after only 2.5 eyes. Surgical time decreased by 1.4 minutes per eye in a linear fashion. The ablation arc followed an asymptotic function with a half-maximum inflection point after 5.3 eyes. Canalograms revealed that this progress did not correlate well with improvement in outflow, suggesting instead that about 30 eyes are needed for true mastery. This inexpensive pig eye model provides a safe and effective microsurgical training model and allows objective quantification of outcomes for the first time.

  4. Learning curve for the management of tyrosine kinase inhibitors as the first line of treatment for patients with metastatic renal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendínez-Cano, G; Osman García, I; Congregado Ruiz, C B; Conde Sánchez, J M; Medina López, R A

    2018-03-07

    To analyse the learning curve for the management of tyrosine kinase inhibitors as the first line of treatment for patients with metastatic renal cancer. We evaluated 32 consecutive patients treated in our department for metastatic renal cancer with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (pazopanib or sunitinib) as first-line treatment between September 2012 and November 2015. We retrospectively analysed this sample. We measured the time to the withdrawal of the first-line treatment, the time to progression and overall survival using Kaplan-Meier curves. The learning curve was analysed with the cumulative sum (CUSUM) methodology. In our series, the median time to the withdrawal of the first-line treatment was 11 months (95% CI 4.9-17.1). The mean time to progression was 30.4 months (95% CI 22.7-38.1), and the mean overall survival was 34.9 months (95% CI 27.8-42). By applying the CUSUM methodology, we obtained a graph for the CUSUM value of the time to withdrawal of the first-line treatment (CUSUM TW), observing 3 well-differentiated phases: phase 1 or initial learning phase (1-15), phase 2 (16-26) in which the management of the drug progressively improved and phase 3 (27-32) of maximum experience or mastery of the management of these drugs. The number of treated patients needed to achieve the proper management of these patients was estimated at 15. Despite the limitations of the sample size and follow-up time, we estimated (in 15 patients) the number needed to reach the necessary experience in the management of these patients with tyrosine kinase inhibitors. We observed no relationship between the time to the withdrawal of the first-line treatment for any cause and progression. Copyright © 2018 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Preoperative risk factors for conversion and learning curve of minimally invasive distal pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Yongfei; Javed, Ammar A; Burkhart, Richard A; Makary, Martin A; Weiss, Matthew J; Wolfgang, Christopher L; He, Jin

    2017-11-01

    Although laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy is considered a standard approach, 10% to 40% of these are converted. The preoperative risk factors for conversion are not well described. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors associated with conversion. Clinicopathological variables of 211 consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy between January 2007 and December 2015 at Johns Hopkins were analyzed to identify factors associated with conversion. Furthermore, the learning curve for laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy was studied. On univariate analysis of diabetes mellitus, preoperative diagnosis of malignant disease, multiorgan resection, surgeons' years and case experience were significantly associated with conversion (all P pancreatectomy with a preoperative diagnosis of malignant disease or possible multiorgan resection are at a higher risk of conversion. Surgeon experience of performing >15 procedures significantly reduces the risk of conversion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Power Curve Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Federici, Paolo; Kock, Carsten Weber

    This report describes the power curve measurements performed with a nacelle LIDAR on a given wind turbine in a wind farm and during a chosen measurement period. The measurements and analysis are carried out in accordance to the guidelines in the procedure “DTU Wind Energy-E-0019” [1]. The reporting...

  7. Femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery with bimanual technique: learning curve for an experienced cataract surgeon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavallini, Gian Maria; Verdina, Tommaso; De Maria, Michele; Fornasari, Elisa; Volpini, Elisa; Campi, Luca

    2017-11-29

    To describe the intraoperative complications and the learning curve of microincision cataract surgery assisted by femtosecond laser (FLACS) with bimanual technique performed by an experienced surgeon. It is a prospective, observational, comparative case series. A total of 120 eyes which underwent bimanual FLACS by the same experienced surgeon during his first experience were included in the study; we considered the first 60 cases as Group A and the second 60 cases as Group B. In both groups, only nuclear sclerosis of grade 2 or 3 was included; an intraocular lens was implanted through a 1.4-mm incision. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), surgically induced astigmatism (SIA), central corneal thickness and endothelial cell loss (ECL) were evaluated before and at 1 and 3 months after surgery. Intraoperative parameters, and intra- and post-operative complications were recorded. In Group A, we had femtosecond laser-related minor complications in 11 cases (18.3%) and post-operative complications in 2 cases (3.3%); in Group B, we recorded 2 cases (3.3%) of femtosecond laser-related minor complications with no post-operative complications. Mean effective phaco time (EPT) was 5.32 ± 3.68 s in Group A and 4.34 ± 2.39 s in Group B with a significant difference (p = 0.046). We recorded a significant mean BCVA improvement at 3 months in both groups (p  0.05). Finally, we found significant ECL in both groups with a significant difference between the two groups (p = 0.042). FLACS with bimanual technique and low-energy LDV Z8 is associated with a necessary initial learning curve. After the first adjustments in the surgical technique, this technology seems to be safe and effective with rapid visual recovery and it helps surgeons to standardize the crucial steps of cataract surgery.

  8. Kant, curves and medical learning practice: a reply to Le Morvan and Stock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ives, J

    2007-02-01

    In a recent paper published in the Journal of Medical Ethics, Le Morvan and Stock claim that the kantian ideal of treating people always as ends in themselves and never merely as a means is in direct and insurmountable conflict with the current medical practice of allowing practitioners at the bottom of their "learning curve" to "practise their skills" on patients. In this response, I take up the challenge they issue [corrected] and try to reconcile this conflict. The kantian ideal offered in the paper is an incomplete characterisation of Kant's moral philosophy, and the formula of humanity is considered in isolation without taking into account other salient kantian principles. I also suggest that their argument based on "necessary for the patient" assumes too narrow a reading of "necessary". This reply is intended as an extension to, rather than a criticism of, their work.

  9. Transitions in sensitive period attachment learning in infancy: the role of corticosterone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Regina M; Holman, Parker J

    2010-05-01

    Survival of altricial infants, including humans and rats, depends on attachment to the caregiver - a process that requires infants to recognize, learn, and remember their attachment figure. The demands of a dynamic environment combined with a maturing organism require frequent neurobehavioral reorganization. This restructuring of behavior and its supporting neural circuitry can be viewed through the unique lens of attachment learning in rats in which preference learning is enhanced and aversion learning is attenuated. Behavioral restructuring is well adapted to securing the crucial infant-caregiver relationship regardless of the quality of care. With maturation and the end of the infant-caregiver attachment learning period, the complex interplay of neural structures, hormones, and social behavior coordinates the developing rat's eventual transition to life outside of the nest. Nevertheless, early-life environmental and physiological stressors can alter the resilient nature of this system, particularly with respect to the amygdala, and these changes may provide important clues to understanding the lasting effects of early stress. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A variation reduction allocation model for quality improvement to minimize investment and quality costs by considering suppliers’ learning curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosyidi, C. N.; Jauhari, WA; Suhardi, B.; Hamada, K.

    2016-02-01

    Quality improvement must be performed in a company to maintain its product competitiveness in the market. The goal of such improvement is to increase the customer satisfaction and the profitability of the company. In current practice, a company needs several suppliers to provide the components in assembly process of a final product. Hence quality improvement of the final product must involve the suppliers. In this paper, an optimization model to allocate the variance reduction is developed. Variation reduction is an important term in quality improvement for both manufacturer and suppliers. To improve suppliers’ components quality, the manufacturer must invest an amount of their financial resources in learning process of the suppliers. The objective function of the model is to minimize the total cost consists of investment cost, and quality costs for both internal and external quality costs. The Learning curve will determine how the employee of the suppliers will respond to the learning processes in reducing the variance of the component.

  11. IDF-curves for precipitation In Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohymont, Bernard; Demarde, Gaston R.

    2004-01-01

    The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation constitute a relationship between the intensity, the duration and the frequency of rainfall amounts. The intensity of precipitation is expressed in mm/h, the duration or aggregation time is the length of the interval considered while the frequency stands for the probability of occurrence of the event. IDF-curves constitute a classical and useful tool that is primarily used to dimension hydraulic structures in general, as e.g., sewer systems and which are consequently used to assess the risk of inundation. In this presentation, the IDF relation for precipitation is studied for different locations in Belgium. These locations correspond to two long-term, high-quality precipitation networks of the RMIB: (a) the daily precipitation depths of the climatological network (more than 200 stations, 1951-2001 baseline period); (b) the high-frequency 10-minutes precipitation depths of the hydro meteorological network (more than 30 stations, 15 to 33 years baseline period). For the station of Uccle, an uninterrupted time-series of more than one hundred years of 10-minutes rainfall data is available. The proposed technique for assessing the curves is based on maximum annual values of precipitation. A new analytical formula for the IDF-curves was developed such that these curves stay valid for aggregation times ranging from 10 minutes to 30 days (when fitted with appropriate data). Moreover, all parameters of this formula have physical dimensions. Finally, adequate spatial interpolation techniques are used to provide nationwide extreme values precipitation depths for short- to long-term durations With a given return period. These values are estimated on the grid points of the Belgian ALADIN-domain used in the operational weather forecasts at the RMIB.(Author)

  12. Growth curves for twins in Slovenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricelj, Katja; Blickstein, Isaac; Bržan-Šimenc, Gabrijela; Janša, Vid; Lučovnik, Miha; Verdenik, Ivan; Trojner-Bregar, Andreja; Tul, Nataša

    2017-02-01

    Abnormalities of fetal growth are more common in twins. We introduce the growth curves for monitoring fetal growth in twin pregnancies in Slovenia. Slovenian National Perinatal Information System for the period between 2002 and 2010 was used to calculate birth weight percentiles for all live born twins for each week from 22nd to 40th week. The calculated percentiles of birth weight for all live-born twins in Slovenia served as the basis for drawing 'growth' curves. The calculated growth curves for twins will help accurately diagnose small or large twin fetuses for their gestational age in the native central European population.

  13. Rational points on elliptic curves

    CERN Document Server

    Silverman, Joseph H

    2015-01-01

    The theory of elliptic curves involves a pleasing blend of algebra, geometry, analysis, and number theory. This book stresses this interplay as it develops the basic theory, thereby providing an opportunity for advanced undergraduates to appreciate the unity of modern mathematics. At the same time, every effort has been made to use only methods and results commonly included in the undergraduate curriculum. This accessibility, the informal writing style, and a wealth of exercises make Rational Points on Elliptic Curves an ideal introduction for students at all levels who are interested in learning about Diophantine equations and arithmetic geometry. Most concretely, an elliptic curve is the set of zeroes of a cubic polynomial in two variables. If the polynomial has rational coefficients, then one can ask for a description of those zeroes whose coordinates are either integers or rational numbers. It is this number theoretic question that is the main subject of this book. Topics covered include the geometry and ...

  14. Is there a learning curve for the TVT-O procedure? A prospective single-surgeon study of 372 consecutive cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serati, Maurizio; Bogani, Giorgio; Braga, Andrea; Sorice, Paola; Salvatore, Stefano; Uccella, Stefano; Ghezzi, Fabio

    2015-03-01

    To evaluate for the first time in the literature the learning curve of Inside-out transobturator tape (TVT-O™). A prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary reference center. Consecutive women treated by TVT-O™ performed by one surgeon were included. Data regarding subjective, objective cure rates, and adverse events were collected. Trends, over the number of procedures, were estimated using assay analyses. Number of procedures and variables were interpolating in standard curves using linear lines. Three hundred and seventy two procedures were included. Postoperative pain levels decreased with the increase in the level of expertise (pain levels: 1-day: from 6.6 (±3.3) to 4.3 (±3.1); 95%CI: -0.01603 to 0.001235, p=0.04; 2-day: from 5.6 (±4.1) to 3.6 (±3.7); 95%CI: -0.02092 to -0.002497, p=0.01; 12-month: from 0.1 (±0.7) to 0 (±0); 95%CI: -0.001814 to 0.05019, p=0.07). Overall, objective cure rate was achieved in 93.5% of patients. Additionally, 88.2% and 88.7% patients reported "much better" feeling at PGI-I scale and 80% reduction in UDI score, respectively. We observed, that delta ICIQ-sf (from 12 (±8.7) to 14 (±6.0); p=0.04) and delta-UDI (from 91% to 97%; p=0.04) improved over the time. TVT-O procedure offers excellent outcomes with high objective and subjective cure rates and low complications rate, even at the beginning of the surgeon's learning curve. However, a high experience of the surgeon could significantly improve the subjective cure rate and could reduce postoperative the groin pain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Análise de conglomerados em curvas de aprendizado para formação de agrupamentos homogêneos de trabalhadores Cluster analysis of learning curves for grouping workers with homogeneous learning profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Eduardo Stroieke

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Em diversos setores da indústria é desejado que trabalhadores reunidos em uma estação de trabalho apresentem perfil de aprendizado similar. O presente artigo apresenta um método de agrupamento de trabalhadores utilizando modelagem por curva de aprendizado e técnicas de clusterização. O método modela dados de desempenho de trabalhadores por intermédio de diversos modelos de curvas de aprendizado; os parâmetros de aprendizado dos modelos testados permitem predizer o desempenho dos trabalhadores em intervalos de tempo pré-determinados. Os valores preditos são agrupados através de ferramentas de clusterização. O maior índice de ajuste (IA, gerado a partir do Silhouette Index e do coeficiente de determinação, indica o modelo de curva mais consistente em termos de aderência aos dados e qualidade de agrupamento de perfis de aprendizado. Ao ser aplicado em dados de uma indústria de calçados, o método gerou agrupamentos consistentes de trabalhadores com base nos distintos perfis de aprendizado.In many industrial segments, it is desirable to allocate workers with similar learning profiles in the same workstation. This paper presents a method that groups workers based on learning curve modeling and clustering techniques. Workers' performance data are modeled through several learning curve models; learning parameters allow for workers' performance prediction at intervals of predetermined time. The predicted values are then grouped by clustering techniques. The largest Adjustment Index (AI, derived from the Silhouette Index and Coefficient of Determination, indicates the model yielding superior adherence to data and better clustering of learning profiles. When applied to a shoe manufacturing process, the method generated consistent groups of workers based on their learning profiles.

  16. Neurobiology of mammalian olfactory learning that occurs during sensitive periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideto KABA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This review examines the organizational principles underlying olfactory learning in three specialized contexts that occur during sensitive periods of enhanced neural plasticity and emphasizes some of their common features. All three forms of olfactory learning are associated with neural changes in the olfactory bulb (OB at the first stage of sensory processing. These changes require the association of the olfactory and somatosensory signals in the OB. They all depend on somatosensory stimulation-induced release of noradrenaline that induces structural and functional changes at mitral-granule cell reciprocal synapses in the OB, resulting in increases in inhibitory transmission. In the accessory olfactory bulb, this represents the enhanced self-inhibition of mitral cells, which selectively disrupts the transmission of the mating male’s pregnancy-blocking signal at this level. In contrast, an extensive network of secondary dendrites of mitral cells in the main olfactory bulb probably results in a sharpening of the odor-induced pattern of activity, due to increases in lateral inhibition, leading to offspring recognition in sheep and neonatal learning in rats and rabbits. These findings show that inhibitory interneurons play a critical role in olfactory learning. Further work on how these neurons shape olfactory circuit function could provide important clues to understand memory functions of interneurons in other systems. Moreover, recent research has suggested that three forms of olfactory learning are controlled by synergistic, redundant, and distributed neural mechanisms. This has general implications regarding the mechanisms that may contribute to the robustness of memories [Current Zoology 56 (6: 819–833, 2010].

  17. Exploring Algorithms for Stellar Light Curves With TESS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzasi, Derek

    2018-01-01

    The Kepler and K2 missions have produced tens of thousands of stellar light curves, which have been used to measure rotation periods, characterize photometric activity levels, and explore phenomena such as differential rotation. The quasi-periodic nature of rotational light curves, combined with the potential presence of additional periodicities not due to rotation, complicates the analysis of these time series and makes characterization of uncertainties difficult. A variety of algorithms have been used for the extraction of rotational signals, including autocorrelation functions, discrete Fourier transforms, Lomb-Scargle periodograms, wavelet transforms, and the Hilbert-Huang transform. In addition, in the case of K2 a number of different pipelines have been used to produce initial detrended light curves from the raw image frames.In the near future, TESS photometry, particularly that deriving from the full-frame images, will dramatically further expand the number of such light curves, but details of the pipeline to be used to produce photometry from the FFIs remain under development. K2 data offers us an opportunity to explore the utility of different reduction and analysis tool combinations applied to these astrophysically important tasks. In this work, we apply a wide range of algorithms to light curves produced by a number of popular K2 pipeline products to better understand the advantages and limitations of each approach and provide guidance for the most reliable and most efficient analysis of TESS stellar data.

  18. Initial laparoscopic basic skills training shortens the learning curve of laparoscopic suturing and is cost-effective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanidis, Dimitrios; Hope, William W; Korndorffer, James R; Markley, Sarah; Scott, Daniel J

    2010-04-01

    Laparoscopic suturing is an advanced skill that is difficult to acquire. Simulator-based skills curricula have been developed that have been shown to transfer to the operating room. Currently available skills curricula need to be optimized. We hypothesized that mastering basic laparoscopic skills first would shorten the learning curve of a more complex laparoscopic task and reduce resource requirements for the Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery suturing curriculum. Medical students (n = 20) with no previous simulator experience were enrolled in an IRB-approved protocol, pretested on the Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery suturing model, and randomized into 2 groups. Group I (n = 10) trained (unsupervised) until proficiency levels were achieved on 5 basic tasks; Group II (n = 10) received no basic training. Both groups then trained (supervised) on the Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery suturing model until previously reported proficiency levels were achieved. Two weeks later, they were retested to evaluate their retention scores, training parameters, instruction requirements, and cost between groups using t-test. Baseline characteristics and performance were similar for both groups, and 9 of 10 subjects in each group achieved the proficiency levels. The initial performance on the simulator was better for Group I after basic skills training, and their suturing learning curve was shorter compared with Group II. In addition, Group I required less active instruction. Overall time required to finish the curriculum was similar for both groups; but the Group I training strategy cost less, with a savings of $148 per trainee. Teaching novices basic laparoscopic skills before a more complex laparoscopic task produces substantial cost savings. Additional studies are needed to assess the impact of such integrated curricula on ultimate educational benefit. Copyright (c) 2010 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Dutch special education schools for children with learning disabilities in the interwar period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Drenth, Annemieke; van Essen, Mineke

    2011-01-01

    In this article Copeland's model of visualising the classification of children with learning disabilities is applied in examining the development of special education schools in the Netherlands during the interwar period. Central are three intertwined social practices: the teacher's professionalism

  20. Regional flow duration curves for ungauged sites in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Viola

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Flow duration curves are simple and powerful tools to deal with many hydrological and environmental problems related to water quality assessment, water-use assessment and water allocation. Unfortunately the scarcity of streamflow data enables the use of these instruments only for gauged basins. A regional model is developed here for estimating flow duration curves at ungauged basins in Sicily, Italy. Due to the complex ephemeral behavior of the examined region, this study distinguishes dry periods, when flows are zero, from wet periods using a three parameters power law to describe the frequency distribution of flows. A large dataset of streamflows has been analyzed and the parameters of flow duration curves have been derived for about fifty basins. Regional regression equations have been developed to derive flow duration curves starting from morphological basin characteristics.

  1. Nacelle lidar power curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gómez Arranz, Paula; Wagner, Rozenn

    This report describes the power curve measurements performed with a nacelle LIDAR on a given wind turbine in a wind farm and during a chosen measurement period. The measurements and analysis are carried out in accordance to the guidelines in the procedure “DTU Wind Energy-E-0019” [1]. The reporting...

  2. The Melting Curve and Premelting of MgO

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, R. E.; Weitz, J. S.

    1996-01-01

    The melting curve for MgO was obtained using molecular dynamics and a non-empirical, many-body potential. We also studied premelting effects by computing the dynamical structure factor in the crystal on approach to melting. The melting curve simulations were performed with periodic boundary conditions with cells up to 512 atoms using the ab-initio Variational Induced Breathing (VIB) model. The melting curve was obtained by computing $% \\Delta H_m$ and $\\Delta V_m$ and integrating the Clapeyro...

  3. Genetic algorithm using independent component analysis in x-ray reflectivity curve fitting of periodic layer structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiilikainen, J; Bosund, V; Tilli, J-M; Sormunen, J; Mattila, M; Hakkarainen, T; Lipsanen, H

    2007-01-01

    A novel genetic algorithm (GA) utilizing independent component analysis (ICA) was developed for x-ray reflectivity (XRR) curve fitting. EFICA was used to reduce mutual information, or interparameter dependences, during the combinatorial phase. The performance of the new algorithm was studied by fitting trial XRR curves to target curves which were computed using realistic multilayer models. The median convergence properties of conventional GA, GA using principal component analysis and the novel GA were compared. GA using ICA was found to outperform the other methods with problems having 41 parameters or more to be fitted without additional XRR curve calculations. The computational complexity of the conventional methods was linear but the novel method had a quadratic computational complexity due to the applied ICA method which sets a practical limit for the dimensionality of the problem to be solved. However, the novel algorithm had the best capability to extend the fitting analysis based on Parratt's formalism to multiperiodic layer structures

  4. Technology learning in a global - local perspective: - the interplay between technology diffusion, niche markets and experience curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinsen, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Preventing dangerous global climate change requires timely deployment of nascent energy technologies with zero or low Co2 emissions. Managing the shift to a common sustainable technology path calls for insight about the influence of global technological change on the national energy system. Moreover, national policies are required to promote the shift to the new technology path. This calls for methods to analyse the national energy system within a global perspective. The objective of the work presented in this thesis was to investigate interplay between technology diffusion, niche markets and technology learning from the perspective of a small open economy like Norway. More specifically, develop methods to include the influence of technology learning manifested in experience and learning curves into national energy-economy-environment models. Moreover, apply the methods to investigate the potential influence and sensitivity to technology learning in a small open economy. In this thesis three such methods have been developed, applied and its importance assessed using Norway as an example. In this work three models have been linked. They are the global Energy Technology Perspectives model operated by the International Energy Agency, the Norwegian Markal model at the Institute for Energy Technology and the macro economic model MSG6 at Statistics Norway. Method one and two has been developed to manage the interplay between the models. In a local perspective technology learning in the global market is perceived as spillover. Based upon a review of the characteristics of technological change and learning curves and its application to energy system modelling some criteria important for the parameterization and modelling of spillover in a small open economy are suggested. The first method incorporates spillover into the national Markal model. The second method establishes a soft-link between the national models. The soft-link served two purposes; to provide input on demand

  5. Predicting the costs of photovoltaic solar modules in 2020 using experience curve models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Tour, Arnaud de; Glachant, Matthieu; Ménière, Yann

    2013-01-01

    Except in few locations, photovoltaic generated electricity remains considerably more expensive than conventional sources. It is however expected that innovation and learning-by-doing will lead to drastic cuts in production cost in the near future. The goal of this paper is to predict the cost of PV modules out to 2020 using experience curve models, and to draw implications about the cost of PV electricity. Using annual data on photovoltaic module prices, cumulative production, R and D knowledge stock and input prices for silicon and silver over the period 1990–2011, we identify a experience curve model which minimizes the difference between predicted and actual module prices. This model predicts a 67% decrease of module price from 2011 to 2020. This rate implies that the cost of PV generated electricity will reach that of conventional electricity by 2020 in the sunniest countries with annual solar irradiation of 2000 kWh/year or more, such as California, Italy, and Spain. - Highlights: • We predict the cost of PV modules out to 2020 using experience curve models. • The model predicts a 67% decrease of module price from 2011 to 2020. • We draw implications about the cost of PV electricity

  6. Electro-Mechanical Resonance Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenslade, Thomas B., Jr.

    2018-01-01

    Recently I have been investigating the frequency response of galvanometers. These are direct-current devices used to measure small currents. By using a low-frequency function generator to supply the alternating-current signal and a stopwatch smartphone app to measure the period, I was able to take data to allow a resonance curve to be drawn. This…

  7. Fast algorithm selection using learning curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijn, van J.N.; Abdulrahman, S.M.; Brazdil, P.; Vanschoren, J.; Fromont, E.; De Bie, T.; Leeuwen, van M.

    2015-01-01

    One of the challenges in Machine Learning to find a classifier and parameter settings that work well on a given dataset. Evaluating all possible combinations typically takes too much time, hence many solutions have been proposed that attempt to predict which classifiers are most promising to try. As

  8. Assessment of performance measures and learning curves for use of a virtual-reality ultrasound simulator in transvaginal ultrasound examination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, M E; Konge, L; Nørgaard, L N

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity and reliability of performance measures, develop credible performance standards and explore learning curves for a virtual-reality simulator designed for transvaginal gynecological ultrasound examination. METHODS: A group of 16 ultrasound novices, along with a group......-6), corresponding to an average of 219 min (range, 150-251 min) of training. The test/retest reliability was high, with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: Competence in the performance of gynecological ultrasound examination can be assessed in a valid and reliable way using virtual-reality...

  9. Analysis of threshold curves for superconducting interferometers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, R.L.; Hamilton, C.A.

    1979-01-01

    Threshold curves for multijunction superconducting interferometers have been calculated previously, showing general agreement with observed features, especially in symmetric cases. We here add some more details to the analysis, paying particular attention to the effects of asymmetries in coupling, inductance, or critical currents. Feed-loop inductance and flux quantization in the feed loop can be important. A changing lobe pattern over many periods, asymmetries within a period, shifting patterns between runs spanning a warm-up, and sudden changes in pattern because of noise in the environment are all quantitatively explainable on the basis of this model. By use of a single ''calibration curve'', the inductance for symmetric two- or three-junction interferometers can be obtained immediately

  10. Equilibrium spherically curved two-dimensional Lennard-Jones systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voogd, J.M.; Sloot, P.M.A.; van Dantzig, R.

    2005-01-01

    To learn about basic aspects of nano-scale spherical molecular shells during their formation, spherically curved two-dimensional N-particle Lennard-Jones systems are simulated, studying curvature evolution paths at zero-temperature. For many N-values (N < 800) equilibrium configu- rations are traced

  11. Facilitating students' application of the integral and the area under the curve concepts in physics problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Dong-Hai

    This research project investigates the difficulties students encounter when solving physics problems involving the integral and the area under the curve concepts and the strategies to facilitate students learning to solve those types of problems. The research contexts of this project are calculus-based physics courses covering mechanics and electromagnetism. In phase I of the project, individual teaching/learning interviews were conducted with 20 students in mechanics and 15 students from the same cohort in electromagnetism. The students were asked to solve problems on several topics of mechanics and electromagnetism. These problems involved calculating physical quantities (e.g. velocity, acceleration, work, electric field, electric resistance, electric current) by integrating or finding the area under the curve of functions of related quantities (e.g. position, velocity, force, charge density, resistivity, current density). Verbal hints were provided when students made an error or were unable to proceed. A total number of 140 one-hour interviews were conducted in this phase, which provided insights into students' difficulties when solving the problems involving the integral and the area under the curve concepts and the hints to help students overcome those difficulties. In phase II of the project, tutorials were created to facilitate students' learning to solve physics problems involving the integral and the area under the curve concepts. Each tutorial consisted of a set of exercises and a protocol that incorporated the helpful hints to target the difficulties that students expressed in phase I of the project. Focus group learning interviews were conducted to test the effectiveness of the tutorials in comparison with standard learning materials (i.e. textbook problems and solutions). Overall results indicated that students learning with our tutorials outperformed students learning with standard materials in applying the integral and the area under the curve

  12. Digital tomosynthesis for evaluating metastatic lung nodules: nodule visibility, learning curves, and reading times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyung Hee; Goo, Jin Mo; Lee, Sang Min; Park, Chang Min; Bahn, Young Eun; Kim, Hyungjin; Song, Yong Sub; Hwang, Eui Jin

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate nodule visibility, learning curves, and reading times for digital tomosynthesis (DT). We included 80 patients who underwent computed tomography (CT) and DT before pulmonary metastasectomy. One experienced chest radiologist annotated all visible nodules on thin-section CT scans using computer-aided detection software. Two radiologists used CT as the reference standard and retrospectively graded the visibility of nodules on DT. Nodule detection performance was evaluated in four sessions of 20 cases each by six readers. After each session, readers were unblinded to the DT images by revealing the true-positive markings and were instructed to self-analyze their own misreads. Receiver-operating-characteristic curves were determined. Among 414 nodules on CT, 53.3% (221/414) were visible on DT. The main reason for not seeing a nodule on DT was small size (93.3%, ≤ 5 mm). DT revealed a substantial number of malignant nodules (84.1%, 143/170). The proportion of malignant nodules among visible nodules on DT was significantly higher (64.7%, 143/221) than that on CT (41.1%, 170/414) (p 0.8, and the average detection rate for malignant nodules was 85% (210/246). The inter-session analysis of the AUC showed no significant differences among the readers, and the detection rate for malignant nodules did not differ across sessions. A slight improvement in reading times was observed. Most malignant nodules > 5 mm were visible on DT. As nodule detection performance was high from the initial session, DT may be readily applicable for radiology residents and board-certified radiologists.

  13. Detection of a repeated transit signature in the light curve of the enigma star KIC 8462852: A possible 928-day period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiefer, F.; Lecavelier des Étangs, A.; Vidal-Madjar, A.; Hébrard, G.; Bourrier, V.; Wilson, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    As revealed by its peculiar Kepler light curve, the enigmatic star KIC 8462852 undergoes short and deep flux dimmings at a priori unrelated epochs. This star presents nonetheless all other characteristics of a quiet 1 Gyr old F3V star. These dimmings resemble the absorption features expected for the transit of dust cometary tails. The exocomet scenario is therefore most commonly advocated. We reanalysed the Kepler data and extracted a new high-quality light curve to allow for the search of shallow signatures of single or a few exocomets. We discovered that among the 22 flux dimming events that we identified, two events present a striking similarity. These events occurred 928.25 days apart and lasted for 4.4 days with a drop in the star brightness by 1000 ppm. We show that the light curve of these events is well explained by the occultation of the star by a giant ring system or by the transit of a string of half a dozen exocomets with a typical dust production rate of 105-106 kg s-1. Assuming that these two similar events are related to the transit of the same object, we derive a period of 928.25 days. The following transit was expected in March 2017 but bad weather prohibited us from detecting it from ground-based spectroscopy. We predict that the next event will occur between 3-8 October 2019.

  14. TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE AND GDP /JIPP CURVE/

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Kaneva

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between telecommunications infrastructure and economic activity is under discussion in many scientific papers. Most of the authors use for research and analysis the Jipp curve. A lot of doubts about the correctness of the Jipp curve appear in terms of applying econometric models. The aim of this study is a review of the Jipp curve, refining the possibility of its application in modern conditions. The methodology used in the study is based on dynamic econometric models, including tests for nonstationarity and tests for causality. The focus of this study is directed to methodological problems in measuring the local density types of telecommunication networks. This study offers a specific methodology for assessing the Jipp law, through VAR-approach and Granger causality tests. It is proved that mechanical substitution of momentary aggregated variables (such as the number of subscribers of a telecommunication network at the end of the year and periodically aggregated variables (such as GDP per capita in the Jipp�s curve is methodologically wrong. Researchers have to reconsider the relationship set in the Jipp�s curve by including additional variables that characterize the Telecommunications sector and the economic activity in a particular country within a specified time period. GDP per capita should not be regarded as a single factor for the local density of telecommunications infrastructure. New econometric models studying the relationship between the investments in telecommunications infrastructure and economic development may be not only linear regression models, but also other econometric models. New econometric models should be proposed after testing and validating with sound economic theory and econometric methodology.

  15. Characterization of time series via Rényi complexity-entropy curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauregui, M.; Zunino, L.; Lenzi, E. K.; Mendes, R. S.; Ribeiro, H. V.

    2018-05-01

    One of the most useful tools for distinguishing between chaotic and stochastic time series is the so-called complexity-entropy causality plane. This diagram involves two complexity measures: the Shannon entropy and the statistical complexity. Recently, this idea has been generalized by considering the Tsallis monoparametric generalization of the Shannon entropy, yielding complexity-entropy curves. These curves have proven to enhance the discrimination among different time series related to stochastic and chaotic processes of numerical and experimental nature. Here we further explore these complexity-entropy curves in the context of the Rényi entropy, which is another monoparametric generalization of the Shannon entropy. By combining the Rényi entropy with the proper generalization of the statistical complexity, we associate a parametric curve (the Rényi complexity-entropy curve) with a given time series. We explore this approach in a series of numerical and experimental applications, demonstrating the usefulness of this new technique for time series analysis. We show that the Rényi complexity-entropy curves enable the differentiation among time series of chaotic, stochastic, and periodic nature. In particular, time series of stochastic nature are associated with curves displaying positive curvature in a neighborhood of their initial points, whereas curves related to chaotic phenomena have a negative curvature; finally, periodic time series are represented by vertical straight lines.

  16. LCC: Light Curves Classifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vo, Martin

    2017-08-01

    Light Curves Classifier uses data mining and machine learning to obtain and classify desired objects. This task can be accomplished by attributes of light curves or any time series, including shapes, histograms, or variograms, or by other available information about the inspected objects, such as color indices, temperatures, and abundances. After specifying features which describe the objects to be searched, the software trains on a given training sample, and can then be used for unsupervised clustering for visualizing the natural separation of the sample. The package can be also used for automatic tuning parameters of used methods (for example, number of hidden neurons or binning ratio). Trained classifiers can be used for filtering outputs from astronomical databases or data stored locally. The Light Curve Classifier can also be used for simple downloading of light curves and all available information of queried stars. It natively can connect to OgleII, OgleIII, ASAS, CoRoT, Kepler, Catalina and MACHO, and new connectors or descriptors can be implemented. In addition to direct usage of the package and command line UI, the program can be used through a web interface. Users can create jobs for ”training” methods on given objects, querying databases and filtering outputs by trained filters. Preimplemented descriptors, classifier and connectors can be picked by simple clicks and their parameters can be tuned by giving ranges of these values. All combinations are then calculated and the best one is used for creating the filter. Natural separation of the data can be visualized by unsupervised clustering.

  17. Designing learning curves for carbon capture based on chemical absorption according to the minimum work of separation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rochedo, Pedro R.R.; Szklo, Alexandre

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • This work defines the minimum work of separation (MWS) for a capture process. • Findings of the analysis indicated a MWS of 0.158 GJ/t for post-combustion. • A review of commercially available processes based on chemical absorption was made. • A review of learning models was conducted, with the addition on a novel model. • A learning curve for post-combustion carbon capture was successfully designed. - Abstract: Carbon capture is one of the most important alternatives for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in energy facilities. The post-combustion route based on chemical absorption with amine solvents is the most feasible alternative for the short term. However, this route implies in huge energy penalties, mainly related to the solvent regeneration. By defining the minimum work of separation (MWS), this study estimated the minimum energy required to capture the CO 2 emitted by coal-fired thermal power plants. Then, by evaluating solvents and processes and comparing it to the MWS, it proposes the learning model with the best fit for the post-combustion chemical absorption of CO 2 . Learning models are based on earnings from experience, which can include the intensity of research and development. In this study, three models are tested: Wright, DeJong and D and L. Findings of the thermochemical analysis indicated a MWS of 0.158 GJ/t for post-combustion. Conventional solvents currently present an energy penalty eight times the MWS. By using the MWS as a constraint, this study found that the D and L provided the best fit to the available data of chemical solvents and absorption plants. The learning rate determined through this model is very similar to the ones found in the literature

  18. Light Curve Analysis of SAO23229

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho-Il Kim

    1993-06-01

    Full Text Available We have made UBV light curves of a newly discovered eclipsing binary, SAO23229 at Sobaeksan Astronomy Observatory. We determined a minimum light time of HJD2448636.1170+/-0.0005 that is 3 minutes later than predicted time, and founda peculiar light variation at phase 0.75 that may not be secondary eclipse. Orbital period of SAO23229 would be 4.2 days rather than 2.1 days. Our analysis of the light curves shows that SAO23229 has a detached configuration consisting of two almost identical F type main sequence stars.

  19. A Data-driven Study of RR Lyrae Near-IR Light Curves: Principal Component Analysis, Robust Fits, and Metallicity Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajdu, Gergely; Dékány, István; Catelan, Márcio; Grebel, Eva K.; Jurcsik, Johanna

    2018-04-01

    RR Lyrae variables are widely used tracers of Galactic halo structure and kinematics, but they can also serve to constrain the distribution of the old stellar population in the Galactic bulge. With the aim of improving their near-infrared photometric characterization, we investigate their near-infrared light curves, as well as the empirical relationships between their light curve and metallicities using machine learning methods. We introduce a new, robust method for the estimation of the light-curve shapes, hence the average magnitudes of RR Lyrae variables in the K S band, by utilizing the first few principal components (PCs) as basis vectors, obtained from the PC analysis of a training set of light curves. Furthermore, we use the amplitudes of these PCs to predict the light-curve shape of each star in the J-band, allowing us to precisely determine their average magnitudes (hence colors), even in cases where only one J measurement is available. Finally, we demonstrate that the K S-band light-curve parameters of RR Lyrae variables, together with the period, allow the estimation of the metallicity of individual stars with an accuracy of ∼0.2–0.25 dex, providing valuable chemical information about old stellar populations bearing RR Lyrae variables. The methods presented here can be straightforwardly adopted for other classes of variable stars, bands, or for the estimation of other physical quantities.

  20. What have we learned from quantum field theory in curved space-time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fulling, S.A.

    1984-01-01

    The paper reviews the quantum field theory in curved space-time. Field quantization in gravitational backgrounds; particle creation by black holes; Hawking radiation; quantum field theory in curved space-time; covariant renormalization of the stress-energy-momentum tensor; quantum field theory and quantum gravity; are all discussed. (U.K.)

  1. The learning curve, interobserver, and intraobserver agreement of endoscopic confocal laser endomicroscopy in the assessment of mucosal barrier defects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jeff; Ip, Matthew; Yang, Michael; Wong, Brendon; Power, Theresa; Lin, Lisa; Xuan, Wei; Phan, Tri Giang; Leong, Rupert W

    2016-04-01

    Confocal laser endomicroscopy can dynamically assess intestinal mucosal barrier defects and increased intestinal permeability (IP). These are functional features that do not have corresponding appearance on histopathology. As such, previous pathology training may not be beneficial in learning these dynamic features. This study aims to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy, learning curve, inter- and intraobserver agreement for identifying features of increased IP in experienced and inexperienced analysts and pathologists. A total of 180 endoscopic confocal laser endomicroscopy (Pentax EC-3870FK; Pentax, Tokyo, Japan) images of the terminal ileum, subdivided into 6 sets of 30 were evaluated by 6 experienced analysts, 13 inexperienced analysts, and 2 pathologists, after a 30-minute teaching session. Cell-junction enhancement, fluorescein leak, and cell dropout were used to represent increased IP and were either present or absent in each image. For each image, the diagnostic accuracy, confidence, and quality were assessed. Diagnostic accuracy was significantly higher for experienced analysts compared with inexperienced analysts from the first set (96.7% vs 83.1%, P 0.86 for experienced observers. Features representative of increased IP can be rapidly learned with high inter- and intraobserver agreement. Confidence and image quality were significant predictors of accurate interpretation. Previous pathology training did not have an effect on learning. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Inverse crystallization if Abrikosov vortex system at periodic pinning

    CERN Document Server

    Zyubin, M V; Kashurnikov, V A

    2002-01-01

    The vortex system in the quasi-two-dimensional HTSC plate is considered in the case of the periodic pinning. The M(H) magnetization curves by various values of the external magnetic field and different temperatures are calculated through the Monte Carlo method. It is shown that in the case of the periodic pinning the crystallization of the vortex system is possible by the temperature increase. A number of peculiarities conditioned by the impact of the pinning centers periodic lattice are identified on the magnetization curves. The pictures of the vortex distribution corresponding to various points on the M(H) curve are obtained

  3. Self-organizing adaptive map: autonomous learning of curves and surfaces from point samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piastra, Marco

    2013-05-01

    Competitive Hebbian Learning (CHL) (Martinetz, 1993) is a simple and elegant method for estimating the topology of a manifold from point samples. The method has been adopted in a number of self-organizing networks described in the literature and has given rise to related studies in the fields of geometry and computational topology. Recent results from these fields have shown that a faithful reconstruction can be obtained using the CHL method only for curves and surfaces. Within these limitations, these findings constitute a basis for defining a CHL-based, growing self-organizing network that produces a faithful reconstruction of an input manifold. The SOAM (Self-Organizing Adaptive Map) algorithm adapts its local structure autonomously in such a way that it can match the features of the manifold being learned. The adaptation process is driven by the defects arising when the network structure is inadequate, which cause a growth in the density of units. Regions of the network undergo a phase transition and change their behavior whenever a simple, local condition of topological regularity is met. The phase transition is eventually completed across the entire structure and the adaptation process terminates. In specific conditions, the structure thus obtained is homeomorphic to the input manifold. During the adaptation process, the network also has the capability to focus on the acquisition of input point samples in critical regions, with a substantial increase in efficiency. The behavior of the network has been assessed experimentally with typical data sets for surface reconstruction, including suboptimal conditions, e.g. with undersampling and noise. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Lagrangian Curves on Spectral Curves of Monopoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guilfoyle, Brendan; Khalid, Madeeha; Ramon Mari, Jose J.

    2010-01-01

    We study Lagrangian points on smooth holomorphic curves in TP 1 equipped with a natural neutral Kaehler structure, and prove that they must form real curves. By virtue of the identification of TP 1 with the space LE 3 of oriented affine lines in Euclidean 3-space, these Lagrangian curves give rise to ruled surfaces in E 3 , which we prove have zero Gauss curvature. Each ruled surface is shown to be the tangent lines to a curve in E 3 , called the edge of regression of the ruled surface. We give an alternative characterization of these curves as the points in E 3 where the number of oriented lines in the complex curve Σ that pass through the point is less than the degree of Σ. We then apply these results to the spectral curves of certain monopoles and construct the ruled surfaces and edges of regression generated by the Lagrangian curves.

  5. Estimation of Typhoon Wind Hazard Curves for Nuclear Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young-Sun; Kim, Min-Kyu [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The intensity of such typhoons, which can influence the Korean Peninsula, is on an increasing trend owing to a rapid change of climate of the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Therefore, nuclear facilities should be prepared against future super-typhoons. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires that a new NPP should be designed to endure the design-basis hurricane wind speeds corresponding to an annual exceedance frequency of 10{sup -7} (return period of 10 million years). A typical technique used to estimate typhoon wind speeds is based on a sampling of the key parameters of typhoon wind models from the distribution functions fitting statistical distributions to the observation data. Thus, the estimated wind speeds for long return periods include an unavoidable uncertainty owing to a limited observation. This study estimates the typhoon wind speeds for nuclear sites using a Monte Carlo simulation, and derives wind hazard curves using a logic-tree framework to reduce the epistemic uncertainty. Typhoon wind speeds were estimated for different return periods through a Monte-Carlo simulation using the typhoon observation data, and the wind hazard curves were derived using a logic-tree framework for three nuclear sites. The hazard curves for the simulated and probable maximum winds were obtained. The mean hazard curves for the simulated and probable maximum winds can be used for the design and risk assessment of an NPP.

  6. QUASI-PERIODICITIES AT YEAR-LIKE TIMESCALES IN BLAZARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandrinelli, A.; Treves, A. [Università degli Studi dell’Insubria, Dipartimento di Scienza ed Alta Tecnologia, Via Valleggio 11, I-22100 Como (Italy); Covino, S. [INAF—Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica, Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera, Via Emilio Bianchi 46, I-23807 Merate (Italy); Dotti, M. [Università degli Studi di Milano Bicocca, Dipartimento di Fisica G. Occhialini, Piazza della Scienza 3, I-20126 Milano (Italy)

    2016-03-15

    We searched for quasi-periodicities on year-like timescales in the light curves of six blazars in the optical—near-infrared bands and we made a comparison with the high energy emission. We obtained optical/NIR light curves from Rapid Eye Mounting photometry plus archival Small and Moderate Aperture Research Telescope System data and we accessed the Fermi light curves for the γ-ray data. The periodograms often show strong peaks in the optical and γ-ray bands, which in some cases may be inter-related. The significance of the revealed peaks is then discussed, taking into account that the noise is frequency dependent. Quasi-periodicities on a year-like timescale appear to occur often in blazars. No straightforward model describing these possible periodicities is yet available, but some plausible interpretations for the physical mechanisms causing periodic variabilities of these sources are examined.

  7. Modeling Patterns of Activities using Activity Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawadi, Prafulla N; Cook, Diane J; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen

    2016-06-01

    Pervasive computing offers an unprecedented opportunity to unobtrusively monitor behavior and use the large amount of collected data to perform analysis of activity-based behavioral patterns. In this paper, we introduce the notion of an activity curve , which represents an abstraction of an individual's normal daily routine based on automatically-recognized activities. We propose methods to detect changes in behavioral routines by comparing activity curves and use these changes to analyze the possibility of changes in cognitive or physical health. We demonstrate our model and evaluate our change detection approach using a longitudinal smart home sensor dataset collected from 18 smart homes with older adult residents. Finally, we demonstrate how big data-based pervasive analytics such as activity curve-based change detection can be used to perform functional health assessment. Our evaluation indicates that correlations do exist between behavior and health changes and that these changes can be automatically detected using smart homes, machine learning, and big data-based pervasive analytics.

  8. Clinical experience with the first 40 cases with femtosecond laser cataract surgery technology: safety of the learning curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao Crispim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the introduction of the femtosecond laser (FSL to perform the key steps of the traditional cataract surgery process and the operational difficulties and safety of this new technology during routine use in an operating room in Brazil. Methods A retrospective study was conducted using the first cases operated on at a single center using the laser platform LenSx/Alcon with a soft contact lens patient interface.All patients underwent a detailed preoperative assessment.The anterior capsulotomy, nuclear fragmentation, and corneal incisions were created with the FSL; then, the surgery was completed following the standard phacoemulsification procedure. The main outcome measurements were difficulties and complications related to the learning curve and an analysis of postoperative uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA. Results: Of 31 patients (40 eyes, 9 patients had FSL cataract surgery in both eyes.The mean age was 64 ± 12 years (ranging from 42 to 82, the mean cataract nuclear sclerosis was grading 2 ± 0.6 (ranging from 1 to 4, and the preoperative mean UDVA in logMAR was 0.4 ± 0.2 (ranging from 0.1 to 1.3. Anterior capsulotomy was complete in all patients, and scissors were not needed to cut off any intact portion. The postoperative corneal incisions were not completely linear and showed some irregularities. Laser phaco-fragmentation was effective, with the division of the nucleus into smaller segments easily performed before phacoemulsification.After 1 month, the postoperative mean UDVA in logMAR was 0.1 ± 0.1 (ranging from 0.0 to 0.4 (P < 0.0001. Conclusion: With increasing surgical cases and experience, the phacoemulsification steps are performed precisely and effectively with FSL pretreatment, resulting in a safe learning curve.

  9. The integration of computerised accounting in the accounting curriculum as an educational learning curve for students entering the business world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elmarie Papageorgiou

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available At universities, educating students on real-life practices is one of the key drivers in a changing academic environment. Academic institutions encourage the study of the learning environment and ensure that appropriate strategies are in place for educating students. A first-year Accounting I student stated the importance of computerised accounting: ‘Computerised accounting is used in the workplace and therefore using it in varsity, grants students a view on how things will be after completion of their respective degrees.’ Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to empirically investigate the perceived acquisition of information technology (IT knowledge and determine the skills required for students to convert the knowledge gained into actions as a learning curve for accounting students entering the business world. The results indicated that students’ knowledge of Accounting I increased with the integration of computerised Accounting in the Accounting I Curriculum.

  10. On a family of KP multi-line solitons associated to rational degenerations of real hyperelliptic curves and to the finite non-periodic Toda hierarchy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abenda, Simonetta

    2017-09-01

    We continue the program started in Abenda and Grinevich (2015) of associating rational degenerations of M-curves to points in GrTNN(k , n) using KP theory for real finite gap solutions. More precisely, we focus on the inverse problem of characterizing the soliton data which produce Krichever divisors compatible with the KP reality condition when Γ is a certain rational degeneration of a hyperelliptic M-curve. Such choice is motivated by the fact that Γ is related to the curves associated to points in GrTP(1 , n) and in GrTP(n - 1 , n) in Abenda and Grinevich (2015). We prove that the reality condition on the Krichever divisor on Γ singles out a special family of KP multi-line solitons (T-hyperelliptic solitons) in GrTP(k , n) , k ∈ [ n - 1 ] , naturally connected to the finite non-periodic Toda hierarchy. We discuss the relations between the algebraic-geometric description of KP T-hyperelliptic solitons and of the open Toda system. Finally, we also explain the effect of the space-time transformation which conjugates soliton data in GrTP(k , n) to soliton data in GrTP(n - k , n) on the Krichever divisor for such KP solitons.

  11. Evaluating the Learning Curve for Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy under Total Ultrasound Guidance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Song

    Full Text Available To investigate the learning curve of percutaneous nephrolithotomy under total ultrasound guidance.One hundred and twenty consecutive PCNL operations under total ultrasound guidance performed by a novice surgeon in a tertiary referral center were studied. Operations were analyzed in cohorts of 15 to determine when a plateau was reached for the variables such as operation duration, ultrasound screening time, tract dilation time, stone-free rate and complication rate. Comparison was made with the results of a surgeon who had performed more than 1000 PCNLs. Fluoroscopy was not used at all during procedure.The mean operation time dropped from 82.5 min for the first 15 patients to a mean of 64.7 min for cases 46 through 60(P = 0.047. The ultrasound screening time was a peak of 6.4 min in the first 15 cases, whereas it dropped to a mean of 3.9 min for cases 46 through 60(P = 0.01. The tract dilation time dropped from 4.9 min for the first 15 patients to a mean of 3.8 min for cases 46 through 60(P = 0.036. The senior surgeon had a mean operating time, screening time and tract dilation time equivalent to those of the novice surgeon after 60 cases. There was no significant difference in stone free rate and complication rate.The competence of ultrasound guided PCNL is reached after 60 cases with good stone free rate and without major complications.

  12. Multiwavelength light curve parameters of Cepheid variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhardwaj Anupam

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of theoretical and observed light curves of Cepheid variables using Fourier decomposition. The theoretical light curves at multiple wavelengths are generated using stellar pulsation models for chemical compositions representative of Cepheids in the Galaxy and Magellanic Clouds. The observed light curves at optical (VI, near-infrared (JHKs and mid-infrared (3.6 & 4.5-μm bands are compiled from the literature. We discuss the variation of light curve parameters as a function of period, wavelength and metallicity. Theoretical and observed Fourier amplitude parameters decrease with increase in wavelength while the phase parameters increase with wavelength. We find that theoretical amplitude parameters obtained using canonical mass-luminosity levels exhibit a greater offset with respect to observations when compared to non-canonical relations. We also discuss the impact of variation in convective efficiency on the light curve structure of Cepheid variables. The increase in mixing length parameter results in a zero-point offset in bolometric mean magnitudes and reduces the systematic large difference in theoretical amplitudes with respect to observations.

  13. Evaluation of the learning curve of non-penetrating glaucoma surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslan, Fatih; Yuce, Berna; Oztas, Zafer; Ates, Halil

    2017-08-11

    To evaluate the learning curve of non-penetrating glaucoma surgery (NPGS). The study included 32 eyes of 27 patients' (20 male and 7 female) with medically uncontrolled glaucoma. Non-penetrating glaucoma surgeries performed by trainees under control of an experienced surgeon between 2005 and 2007 at our tertiary referral hospital were evaluated. Residents were separated into two groups. Humanistic training model applied to the one in the first group, he studied with experimental models before performing NPGS. Two residents in the second group performed NPGS after a conventional training model. Surgeries of the residents were recorded on video and intraoperative parameters were scored by the experienced surgeon at the end of the study. Postoperative intraocular pressure, absolute and total success rates were analyzed. In the first group 19 eyes of 16 patients and in the second group 13 eyes of 11 patients had been operated by residents. Intraoperative parameters and complication rates were not statistically significant between groups (p > 0.05, Chi-square). The duration of surgery was 32.7 ± 5.6 min in the first group and 45 ± 3.8 min in the second group. The difference was statistically significant (p < 0.001, Student's t test). Absolute and total success was 68.8 and 93.8% in the first group and 62.5 and 87.5% in the second group, respectively. The difference was not statistically significant. Humanistic and conventional training models under control of an experienced surgeon are safe and effective for senior residents who manage phacoemulsification surgery in routine cataract cases. Senior residents can practice these surgical techniques with reasonable complication rates.

  14. [Surgical learning curve for creation of vascular accesses for haemodialysis: value of medico-radio-surgical collaboration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Glabeke, Emmanuel; Belenfant, Xavier; Barrou, Benoît; Adhemar, Jean-Pierre; Laedrich, Joëlle; Mavel, Marie-Christine; Challier, Emmanuel

    2005-04-01

    Creation of a vascular access (VA) for haemodialysis is a surgical procedure which comprises a failure rate related to the quality of the vessels and the operator's experience. The authors report the first 2 years of a young urologist's experience with this procedure in a local hospital in collaboration with the nephrology team. Patients undergoing creation of VA were divided into 2 chronological groups. The patient's age and gender, the cause of renal failure, the presence of diabetes, clinical examination of the upper limb, preoperative assessment of upper limb vessels, the type of anaesthesia, the operating time and the start of dialysis after the operation, as well as the functional results of the VA at 6 months were studied. Results concerning the patients of the first period were discussed by the operator and the nephrology team. During the first 9 months, 28 patients were operated, corresponding to 36 operations including 32 direct fistulas. Over the following 15 months, 61 patients were operated, with the creation of 63 VAs, including 55 direct fistulas. The failure rate (thrombosis or non-functioning VA) decreased from 32.1% to 11.1% (p=0.07), while the 2 groups were globally comparable. Evaluation of a new surgical procedure shows a number of failures, as for all learning curves. However, it helps to improve the results. Collaboration with nephrologists must comprise a discussion allowing the acceptance of certain failures, as they reflect compliance with a strategy of preservation of the vascular capital and a rational attempt to avoid a non-essential proximal access or bypass graft. The support of a motivated radiology team (preoperative assessment and management of complications) and the assistance of a more experienced operator are essential.

  15. Learning curve of robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy for a single experienced surgeon: comparison with simultaneous laparoscopic radical prostatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Ja Yoon; Ha, Hong Koo

    2015-04-01

    Despite the large number of analytical reports regarding the learning curve in the transition from open to robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), few comparative results with laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (LRP) have been reported. Thus, we evaluated operative and postoperative outcomes in RARP versus 100 simultaneously performed LRPs. A single surgeon had performed more than 1,000 laparoscopic operations, including 415 cases of radical nephrectomy, 85 radical cystectomies, 369 radical prostatectomies, and treatment of 212 other urological tumors, since 2009. We evaluated operative (operation time, intraoperative transfusion, complications, hospital stay, margin status, pathological stage, Gleason score) and postoperative (continence and erectile function) parameters in initial cases of RARP without tutoring compared with 100 recently performed LRPs. Mean operation time and length of hospital stay for RARP and LRP were 145.5±43.6 minutes and 118.1±39.1 minutes, and 6.4±0.9 days and 6.6±1.1 days, respectively (p=0.003 and p=0.721). After 17 cases, the mean operation time for RARP was similar to LRP (less than 2 hours). Positive surgical margins in localized cancer were seen in 11.1% and 8.9% of cases in RARP and LRP, respectively (p=0.733). At postoperative 3 months, sexual intercourse was reported in 14.0% and 12.0%, and pad-free continence in 96.0% and 81.0% in patients with RARP and LRP, respectively (p=0.796 and p=0.012). Previous large-volume experience of LRPs may shorten the learning curve for RARP in terms of oncological outcome. Additionally, previous experience with laparoscopy may improve the functional outcomes of RARP.

  16. A Closer Look at Deep Learning Neural Networks with Low-level Spectral Periodicity Features

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sturm, Bob L.; Kereliuk, Corey; Pikrakis, Aggelos

    2014-01-01

    Systems built using deep learning neural networks trained on low-level spectral periodicity features (DeSPerF) reproduced the most “ground truth” of the systems submitted to the MIREX 2013 task, “Audio Latin Genre Classification.” To answer why this was the case, we take a closer look...

  17. Reliability assessment of a manual-based procedure towards learning curve modeling and fmea analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Rech

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Separation procedures in drug Distribution Centers (DC are manual-based activities prone to failures such as shipping exchanged, expired or broken drugs to the customer. Two interventions seem as promising in improving the reliability in the separation procedure: (i selection and allocation of appropriate operators to the procedure, and (ii analysis of potential failure modes incurred by selected operators. This article integrates Learning Curves (LC and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis aimed at reducing the occurrence of failures in the manual separation of a drug DC. LCs parameters enable generating an index to identify the recommended operators to perform the procedures. The FMEA is then applied to the separation procedure carried out by the selected operators in order to identify failure modes. It also deployed the traditional FMEA severity index into two sub-indexes related to financial issues and damage to company´s image in order to characterize failures severity. When applied to a drug DC, the proposed method significantly reduced the frequency and severity of failures in the separation procedure.

  18. THE INFORMATION CONTENT IN ANALYTIC SPOT MODELS OF BROADBAND PRECISION LIGHT CURVES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walkowicz, Lucianne M. [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Peyton Hall, 4 Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08534 (United States); Basri, Gibor [Astronomy Department, University of California at Berkeley, Hearst Field Annex, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Valenti, Jeff A. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Dr., Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2013-04-01

    We present the results of numerical experiments to assess degeneracies in light curve models of starspots. Using synthetic light curves generated with the Cheetah starspot modeling code, we explore the extent to which photometric light curves constrain spot model parameters, including spot latitudes and stellar inclination. We also investigate the effects of spot parameters and differential rotation on one's ability to correctly recover rotation periods and differential rotation in the Kepler light curves. We confirm that in the absence of additional constraints on the stellar inclination, such as spectroscopic measurements of vsin i or occultations of starspots by planetary transits, the spot latitude and stellar inclination are difficult to determine uniquely from the photometry alone. We find that for models with no differential rotation, spots that appear on opposite hemispheres of the star may cause one to interpret the rotation period to be half of the true period. When differential rotation is included, the changing longitude separation between spots breaks the symmetry of the hemispheres and the correct rotation period is more likely to be found. The dominant period found via periodogram analysis is typically that of the largest spot. Even when multiple spots with periods representative of the star's differential rotation exist, if one spot dominates the light curve the signal of differential rotation may not be detectable from the periodogram alone. Starspot modeling is applicable to stars with a wider range of rotation rates than other surface imaging techniques (such as Doppler imaging), allows subtle signatures of differential rotation to be measured, and may provide valuable information on the distribution of stellar spots. However, given the inherent degeneracies and uncertainty present in starspot models, caution should be exercised in their interpretation.

  19. THE INFORMATION CONTENT IN ANALYTIC SPOT MODELS OF BROADBAND PRECISION LIGHT CURVES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walkowicz, Lucianne M.; Basri, Gibor; Valenti, Jeff A.

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of numerical experiments to assess degeneracies in light curve models of starspots. Using synthetic light curves generated with the Cheetah starspot modeling code, we explore the extent to which photometric light curves constrain spot model parameters, including spot latitudes and stellar inclination. We also investigate the effects of spot parameters and differential rotation on one's ability to correctly recover rotation periods and differential rotation in the Kepler light curves. We confirm that in the absence of additional constraints on the stellar inclination, such as spectroscopic measurements of vsin i or occultations of starspots by planetary transits, the spot latitude and stellar inclination are difficult to determine uniquely from the photometry alone. We find that for models with no differential rotation, spots that appear on opposite hemispheres of the star may cause one to interpret the rotation period to be half of the true period. When differential rotation is included, the changing longitude separation between spots breaks the symmetry of the hemispheres and the correct rotation period is more likely to be found. The dominant period found via periodogram analysis is typically that of the largest spot. Even when multiple spots with periods representative of the star's differential rotation exist, if one spot dominates the light curve the signal of differential rotation may not be detectable from the periodogram alone. Starspot modeling is applicable to stars with a wider range of rotation rates than other surface imaging techniques (such as Doppler imaging), allows subtle signatures of differential rotation to be measured, and may provide valuable information on the distribution of stellar spots. However, given the inherent degeneracies and uncertainty present in starspot models, caution should be exercised in their interpretation.

  20. Validation of the NASA-TLX Score in Ongoing Assessment of Mental Workload During a Laparoscopic Learning Curve in Bariatric Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Rabelo, Juan Francisco; Navarro-Rodriguez, Elena; Di-Stasi, Leandro Luigi; Diaz-Jimenez, Nelida; Cabrera-Bermon, Juan; Diaz-Iglesias, Carlos; Gomez-Alvarez, Manuel; Briceño-Delgado, Javier

    2015-12-01

    Fatigue and mental workload are directly associated with high-complexity tasks. In general, difficult tasks produce a higher mental workload, leaving little opportunity to deal with new/unexpected events and increasing the likelihood of performance errors. The laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) learning curve is considered to be one of the most difficult to complete in laparoscopic surgery. We wished to validate the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index (NASA-TLX) in LRYGB and identify factors that could provoke a higher mental workload for surgeons during the learning curve. A single surgeon was enrolled to undertake 70 consecutive LRYGB procedures with two internal surgeons mentoring the first 35 cases. Patients were consecutive and ranked from case 35 to case 105 according to the date of the surgical procedure ("case rank"). Self-ratings of satisfaction, performance, and fatigue were measured at the end of surgery using a validated NASA-TLX questionnaire. The procedure was recorded for later viewing by two external evaluators. General data for patients and surgical variables were collected prospectively. A moderate correlation between the NASA-TLX score, BMI, operative time, and volumes of blood drainage was observed. There was no correlation between the NASA-TLX score and duration of hospital stay or time of drain removal. BMI ≥50 kg/m(2), male sex, inexperienced first assistant, and type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified as independent predictive factors of a higher NASA-TLX score. The NASA-TLX is a valid tool to gauge mental workload in LRYGB.

  1. A geometric realization of the periodic discrete Toda lattice and its tropicalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nobe, Atsushi

    2013-01-01

    An explicit formula concerning curve intersections equivalent to the time evolution of the periodic discrete Toda lattice (pdTL) is presented. First, the time evolution is realized as a point addition on a hyperelliptic curve, which is the spectral curve of the pdTL, then the point addition is translated into curve intersections. Next, it is shown that the curves which appear in the curve intersections are explicitly given by using the conserved quantities of the pdTL. Finally, the formulation is lifted to the framework of tropical geometry and a tropical geometric realization of the periodic box–ball system is constructed via tropical curve intersections. (paper)

  2. Light curves for ''bump Cepheids'' computed with a dynamically zoned pulsation code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, T.F.; Castor, J.E.; Davis, C.G.

    1978-01-01

    The dynamically zoned pulsation code developed by Castor, Davis, and Davison has been used to recalculate the Goddard model and to calculate three other Cepheid models with the same period (9.8 days). This family of models shows how the bumps and other features of the light and velocity curves change as the mass is varied at constant period. This study, with a code that is capable of producing reliable light curves, shows again that the light and velocity curves for 9.8-day Cepheid models with standard homogeneous compositions do not show bumps like those that are observed unless the mass is significantly lower than the ''evolutionary mass.'' The light and velocity curves for the Goddard model presented here are similar to those computed independently by Fischel, Sparks, and Karp. They should be useful as standards for future investigators

  3. Deciphering Periodic Methanol Masers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stecklum, Bringfried; Caratti o Garatti, Alessio; Henning, Thomas; Hodapp, Klaus; Hopp, Ulrich; Kraus, Alex; Linz, Hendrik; Sanna, Alberto; Sobolev, Andrej; Wolf, Verena

    2018-05-01

    Impressive progress has been made in recent years on massive star formation, yet the involved high optical depths even at submm/mm wavelengths make it difficult to reveal its details. Recently, accretion bursts of massive YSOs have been identified to cause flares of Class II methanol masers (methanol masers for short) due to enhanced mid-IR pumping. This opens a new window to protostellar accretion variability, and implies that periodic methanol masers hint at cyclic accretion. Pinning down the cause of the periodicity requires joint IR and radio monitoring. We derived the first IR light curve of a periodic maser host from NEOWISE data. The source, G107.298+5.639, is an intermediate-mass YSO hosting methanol and water masers which flare every 34.5 days. Our recent joint K-band and radio observations yielded first but marginal evidence for a phase lag between the rise of IR and maser emission, respectively, and revealed that both NEOWISE and K-band light curves are strongly affected by the light echo from the ambient dust. Both the superior resolution of IRAC over NEOWISE and the longer wavelengths compared to our ground-based imaging are required to inhibit the distractive contamination by the light echo. Thus, we ask for IRAC monitoring of G107 to cover one flare cycle, in tandem with 100-m Effelsberg and 2-m Wendelstein radio and NIR observations to obtain the first high-quality synoptic measurements of this kind of sources. The IR-maser phase lag, the intrinsic shape of the IR light curves and their possible color variation during the cycle allow us to constrain models for the periodic maser excitation. Since methanol masers are signposts of intermediate-mass and massive YSOs, deciphering their variability offers a clue to the dynamics of the accretion-mediated growth of massive stars and their feedback onto the immediate natal environment. The Spitzer light curve of such a maser-hosting YSO would be a legacy science product of the mission.

  4. Events of potential learning: how preschoolers produce curriculum at the computer during free play periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mats Bevemyr

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Swedish preschool curriculum emphasizes children’s learning through play. This means that children’s learning in everyday practice is accomplished through a complex mixture of teacher-led activities and activities the children themselves initiate. When learning is viewed as situated and constituted through social interaction (Lave & Wenger, 1991, almost all social events have learning potential. Consequently, from an educational and a curriculum point of view it is important to raise the question of how children’s learning can be made visible, and determine what kind of learning children’s own initiated (play activities imply. The focus of the paper is on children’s (aged 3-5 years “communities of practice” at the computer during “free play” period in two various Swedish preschools settings. Events of peer interaction are analyzed in detail to illustrate what kind of learning activities are going on at the computer, and to discuss these events of potential learning in relation to the curriculum goals and the educational practice. From a curriculum point of view, the analyses show that the children’s activities at the computer involve a variety of events that might provides for learning that can be viewed as goal-oriented. From the children’s point of view, the project of socialization seems to be the most prominent goal. A crucial point for educational success, however, is to understand not only what the object of learning is, rather what motivates children’s play apprenticeship in their own “communities of practice”.

  5. Periodic precursors of nonlinear dynamical transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Yu; Dong Shihai; Lozada-Cassou, M.

    2004-01-01

    We study the resonant response of a nonlinear system to external periodic perturbations. We show by numerical simulation that the periodic resonance curve may anticipate the dynamical instability of the unperturbed nonlinear periodic system, at parameter values far away from the bifurcation points. In the presence of noise, the buried intrinsic periodic dynamics can be picked out by analyzing the system's response to periodic modulation of appropriate intensity

  6. Light and velocity curve bumps for BW Vulpeculae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pesnell, W.D.; Cox, A.N.

    1980-01-01

    Bumps in the light and radial velocity curves of the Beta Cephei star BW Vulpeculae were modeled. Two mechanisms, a resonance phenomena and non-linear pulsations, were investigated. The resonance condition was clearly not fulfilled, the calculated period ratio being approximately 0.60, where a value of 0.50 L +- 0.03 is required for resonance. In the non-linear calculation, the bump appears, with the correct phase, but was found at an amplitude that is too large. Further, the light curve does not show any bump-like feature. The cause of the bump is the large spurious boost given the star's velocity field by the solution methods. The calculated periods of the stellar models are shorter than those of previous calculations, enhancing the possibility that these stars pulsate in a radial fundamental mode

  7. Mild decentration measured by a Scheimpflug camera and its impact on visual quality following SMILE in the early learning curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Meiyan; Zhao, Jing; Miao, Huamao; Shen, Yang; Sun, Ling; Tian, Mi; Wadium, Elizabeth; Zhou, Xingtao

    2014-05-20

    To measure decentration following femtosecond laser small incision lenticule extraction (SMILE) for the correction of myopia and myopic astigmatism in the early learning curve, and to investigate its impact on visual quality. A total of 55 consecutive patients (100 eyes) who underwent the SMILE procedure were included. Decentration was measured using a Scheimpflug camera 6 months after surgery. Uncorrected and corrected distance visual acuity (UDVA, CDVA), manifest refraction, and wavefront errors were also measured. Associations between decentration and the preoperative spherical equivalent were analyzed, as well as the associations between decentration and wavefront aberrations. Regarding efficacy and safety, 40 eyes (40%) had an unchanged CDVA; 32 eyes (32%) gained one line; and 11 eyes (11%) gained two lines. Fifteen eyes (15%) lost one line of CDVA, and two eyes (2%) lost two lines. Ninety-nine of the treated eyes (99%) had a postoperative UDVA better than 1.0, and 100 eyes (100%) had a UDVA better than 0.8. The mean decentered displacement was 0.17 ± 0.09 mm. The decentered displacement of all treated eyes (100%) was within 0.50 mm; 70 eyes (70%) were within 0.20 mm; and 90 eyes (90%) were within 0.30 mm. The vertical coma showed the greatest increase in magnitude. The magnitude of horizontal decentration was found to be associated with an induced horizontal coma. This study suggests that, although mild decentration occurred in the early learning curve, good visual outcomes were achieved after the SMILE surgery. Special efforts to minimize induced vertical coma are necessary. Copyright 2014 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

  8. Trends in scale and shape of survival curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weon, Byung Mook; Je, Jung Ho

    2012-01-01

    The ageing of the population is an issue in wealthy countries worldwide because of increasing costs for health care and welfare. Survival curves taken from demographic life tables may help shed light on the hypotheses that humans are living longer and that human populations are growing older. We describe a methodology that enables us to obtain separate measurements of scale and shape variances in survival curves. Specifically, 'living longer' is associated with the scale variance of survival curves, whereas 'growing older' is associated with the shape variance. We show how the scale and shape of survival curves have changed over time during recent decades, based on period and cohort female life tables for selected wealthy countries. Our methodology will be useful for performing better tracking of ageing statistics and it is possible that this methodology can help identify the causes of current trends in human ageing.

  9. Changing the Learning Curve in Novice Laparoscopists: Incorporating Direct Visualization into the Simulation Training Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawidek, Mark T; Roach, Victoria A; Ott, Michael C; Wilson, Timothy D

    A major challenge in laparoscopic surgery is the lack of depth perception. With the development and continued improvement of 3D video technology, the potential benefit of restoring 3D vision to laparoscopy has received substantial attention from the surgical community. Despite this, procedures conducted under 2D vision remain the standard of care, and trainees must become proficient in 2D laparoscopy. This study aims to determine whether incorporating 3D vision into a 2D laparoscopic simulation curriculum accelerates skill acquisition in novices. Postgraduate year-1 surgical specialty residents (n = 15) at the Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, at Western University were randomized into 1 of 2 groups. The control group practiced the Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery peg-transfer task to proficiency exclusively under standard 2D laparoscopy conditions. The experimental group first practiced peg transfer under 3D direct visualization, with direct visualization of the working field. Upon reaching proficiency, this group underwent a perceptual switch, changing to standard 2D laparoscopy conditions, and once again trained to proficiency. Incorporating 3D direct visualization before training under standard 2D conditions significantly (p learning curves for each respective training protocol. An adaptive learning approach, which incorporates 3D direct visualization into a 2D laparoscopic simulation curriculum, accelerates skill acquisition. This is in contrast to previous work, possibly owing to the proficiency-based methodology employed, and has implications for resource savings in surgical training. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The Climate Change Learning Curve

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew J. Leach

    2004-01-01

    The key element in the tension between those who believe climate change is an issue and those who do not is essentially the question of whether we are merely in a long period of shock-induced above average temperatures or if we have led to this increase in temperatures by anthropogenic carbon emissions. The model proposed in this paper allows for a model in which we weigh observations on temperature against the potential that these are generated by a combination of uncertain parameters; namel...

  11. Low frequency oscillatory flow in a rotating curved pipe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈华军; 章本照; 苏霄燕

    2003-01-01

    The low frequency oscillatory flow in a rotating curved pipe was studied by using the method of bi-parameter perturbation. Perturbation solutions up to the second order were obtained and the effects of rotationon the low frequency oscillatory flow were examined in detail, The results indicated that there exists evident difference between the low frequency oscillatory flow in a rotating curved pipe and in a curved pipe without ro-tation. During a period, four secondary vortexes may exist on the circular cross-section and the distribution of axial velocity and wall shear stress are related to the ratio of the Coriolis foree to centrifugal foree and the axial pressure gradient.

  12. Low frequency oscillatory flow in a rotating curved pipe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈华军; 章本照; 苏霄燕

    2003-01-01

    The low frequency oscillatory flow in a rotating curved pipe was studied by using the method of bi-parameter perturbation. Perturbation solutions up to the second order were obtained and the effects of rotation on the low frequency oscillatory flow were examined in detail. The results indicated that there exists evident difference between the low frequency oscillatory flow in a rotating curved pipe and in a curved pipe without rotation. During a period, four secondary vortexes may exist on the circular cross-section and the distribution of axial velocity and wall shear stress are related to the ratio of the Coriolis force to centrifugal force and the axial pressure gradient.

  13. Photometric light curves for seven rapidly-rotating K dwarfs in the Pleiades and Alpha Persei clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, John R.; Schild, Rudolph A.; Baliunas, Sallie L.; Africano, John L.

    1987-01-01

    Light curves and period estimates were obtained for several Pleiades and Alpha Persei cluster K dwarfs which were identified as rapid rotators in earlier spectroscopic studies. A few of the stars have previously-published light curves, making it possible to study the long-term variability of the light-curve shapes. The general cause of the photometric variability observed for these stars is an asymmetric distribution of photospheric inhomogeneities (starspots). The presence of these inhomogeneities combined with the rotation of the star lead to the light curves observed. The photometric periods derived are thus identified with the rotation period of the star, making it possible to estimate equatorial rotational velocities for these K dwarfs. These data are of particular importance because the clusters are sufficiently young that stars of this mass should have just arrived on the main sequence. These data could be used to estimate the temperatures and sizes of the spot groups necessary to produce the observed light curves for these stars.

  14. Irreversible electroporation ablation (IRE of unresectable soft tissue tumors: learning curve evaluation in the first 150 patients treated.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prejesh Philips

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Irreversible electroporation (IRE is a novel technology that uses peri-target discrete probes to deliver high-voltage localized electric current to induce cell death without thermal-induced coagulative necrosis. "Learnability" and consistently effective results by novice practitioners is essential for determining acceptance of novel techniques. This multi-center prospectively-collected database study evaluates the learning curve of IRE. METHODS: Analysis of 150 consecutive patients over 7 institutions from 9/2010-7/2012 was performed with patients treated divided into 3 groups A (1(st 50 patients treated, B (2(nd 50 and C (3(rd 50 patients treated chronologically and analyzed for outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 167 IRE procedures were performed, with a majority being liver(39.5% and pancreatic(35.5% lesions. The three groups were similar with respect to co-morbidities and demographics. Group C had larger lesions (3.9 vs 3 cm,p=0.001, more numerous lesions (3.2 vs 2.2,p=0.07, more vascular invasion(p=0.001, underwent more associated procedures(p=0.001 and had longer operative times(p<0.001. Despite this, they had similar complication and high-grade complication rates(p=0.24. Attributable morbidity rate was 13.3%(total 29.3% and high-grade complications were seen in 4.19%(total 12.6%. Pancreatic lesions(p=0.001 and laparotomy(p=0.001 were associated with complications. CONCLUSION: The review represents that single largest review of IRE soft tissue ablation demonstrating initial patient selection and safety. Over time, complex treatments of larger lesions and lesions with greater vascular involvement were performed without a significant increase in adverse effects or impact on local relapse free survival. This evolution demonstrates the safety profile of IRE and speed of graduation to more complex lesions, which was greater than 5 cases by institution. IRE is a safe and effective alternative to conventional ablation with a demonstrable

  15. Rectification of light refraction in curved waveguide arrays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longhi, Stefano

    2009-02-15

    An "optical ratchet" for discretized light in photonic lattices, which enables observing rectification of light refraction at any input beam conditions, is theoretically presented, and a possible experimental implementation based on periodically curved zigzag waveguide arrays is proposed.

  16. Light-Curve Diagnosis of a Hot Spot for Accretion-Disk Models

    OpenAIRE

    FUKUE, Jun

    2003-01-01

    Light curves of a hot spot rotating in a relativistic Keplerian disk were found to be periodic with typically two peaks, originating from a gravitational focusing effect and a Doppler boost. On the other hand, we found that light curves of a hot spot spirally infalling in a sub-Keplerian advective disk are aperiodic with typically a single peak, originating from a gravitational focusing effect or a Doppler boost. Such a difference in the light curves of a hot spot can discriminate background ...

  17. Rectification of light refraction in curved waveguide arrays

    OpenAIRE

    Longhi, S.

    2010-01-01

    An 'optical ratchet' for discretized light in photonic lattices, which enables to observe rectification of light refraction at any input beam conditions, is theoretically presented, and a possible experimental implementation based on periodically-curved zigzag waveguide arrays is proposed.

  18. Multiperiodicity in the light curve of Alpha Orionis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karovska, M.

    1987-01-01

    Alpha Ori, a supergiant star classified as M2 Iab, is characterized by pronounced variability encompassing most of its observed parameters. Variability on two different time scales has been observed in the light and velocity curves: a long period variation of about 6 years and superposed on this, irregular fluctuations having a time scale of several hundred days. This paper reports the results of Fourier analysis of more than 60- years of AAVSO (American Association of Variable Stars Observers) data which suggest a multiperiodicity in the light curve of α Ori

  19. Radio and γ -Ray Variability in the BL Lac PKS 0219−164: Detection of Quasi-periodic Oscillations in the Radio Light Curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatta, Gopal, E-mail: gopalbhatta716@gmail.com [Astronomical Observatory of the Jagiellonian University, ul. Orla 171, 30-244 Kraków (Poland); Mt. Suhora Observatory, Pedagogical University, ul. Podchorazych 2, 30-084 Kraków (Poland)

    2017-09-20

    In this work, we explore the long-term variability properties of the blazar PKS 0219−164 in the radio and the γ -ray regime, utilizing the OVRO 15 GHz and the Fermi /LAT observations from the period 2008–2017. We found that γ -ray emission is more variable than the radio emission implying that γ -ray emission possibly originated in more compact regions while the radio emission represented continuum emission from the large-scale jets. Also, in the γ -ray, the source exhibited spectral variability, characterized by the softer-when-brighter trend, a less frequently observed feature in the high-energy emission by BL Lacs. In radio, using Lomb–Scargle periodogram and weighted wavelet z -transform, we detected a strong signal of quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) with a periodicity of 270 ± 26 days with possible harmonics of 550 ± 42 and 1150 ± 157 day periods. At a time when detections of QPOs in blazars are still under debate, the observed QPO with high statistical significance (∼97%–99% global significance over underlying red-noise processes) and persistent over nearly 10 oscillations could make one of the strongest cases for the detection of QPOs in blazar light curves. We discuss various blazar models that might lead to the γ -ray and radio variability, QPO, and the achromatic behavior seen in the high-energy emission from the source.

  20. Motor learning induces plastic changes in Purkinje cell dendritic spines in the rat cerebellum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Tapia, D; González-Ramírez, M M; Vázquez-Hernández, N; González-Burgos, I

    2017-12-14

    The paramedian lobule of the cerebellum is involved in learning to correctly perform motor skills through practice. Dendritic spines are dynamic structures that regulate excitatory synaptic stimulation. We studied plastic changes occurring in the dendritic spines of Purkinje cells from the paramedian lobule of rats during motor learning. Adult male rats were trained over a 6-day period using an acrobatic motor learning paradigm; the density and type of dendritic spines were determined every day during the study period using a modified version of the Golgi method. The learning curve reflected a considerable decrease in the number of errors made by rats as the training period progressed. We observed more dendritic spines on days 2 and 6, particularly more thin spines on days 1, 3, and 6, fewer mushroom spines on day 3, fewer stubby spines on day 1, and more thick spines on days 4 and 6. The initial stage of motor learning may be associated with fast processing of the underlying synaptic information combined with an apparent "silencing" of memory consolidation processes, based on the regulation of the neuronal excitability. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. Inferring probabilistic stellar rotation periods using Gaussian processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angus, Ruth; Morton, Timothy; Aigrain, Suzanne; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Rajpaul, Vinesh

    2018-02-01

    Variability in the light curves of spotted, rotating stars is often non-sinusoidal and quasi-periodic - spots move on the stellar surface and have finite lifetimes, causing stellar flux variations to slowly shift in phase. A strictly periodic sinusoid therefore cannot accurately model a rotationally modulated stellar light curve. Physical models of stellar surfaces have many drawbacks preventing effective inference, such as highly degenerate or high-dimensional parameter spaces. In this work, we test an appropriate effective model: a Gaussian Process with a quasi-periodic covariance kernel function. This highly flexible model allows sampling of the posterior probability density function of the periodic parameter, marginalizing over the other kernel hyperparameters using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. To test the effectiveness of this method, we infer rotation periods from 333 simulated stellar light curves, demonstrating that the Gaussian process method produces periods that are more accurate than both a sine-fitting periodogram and an autocorrelation function method. We also demonstrate that it works well on real data, by inferring rotation periods for 275 Kepler stars with previously measured periods. We provide a table of rotation periods for these and many more, altogether 1102 Kepler objects of interest, and their posterior probability density function samples. Because this method delivers posterior probability density functions, it will enable hierarchical studies involving stellar rotation, particularly those involving population modelling, such as inferring stellar ages, obliquities in exoplanet systems, or characterizing star-planet interactions. The code used to implement this method is available online.

  2. Can CCM law properly represent all extinction curves?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geminale, Anna; Popowski, Piotr

    2005-01-01

    We present the analysis of a large sample of lines of sight with extinction curves covering wavelength range from near-infrared (NIR) to ultraviolet (UV). We derive total to selective extinction ratios based on the Cardelli, Clayton and Mathis (1989, CCM) law, which is typically used to fit the extinction data both for diffuse and dense interstellar medium. We conclude that the CCM law is able to fit most of the extinction curves in our sample. We divide the remaining lines of sight with peculiar extinction into two groups according to two main behaviors: a) the optical/IR or/and UV wavelength region cannot be reproduced by the CCM formula; b) the optical/NIR and UV extinction data are best fit by the CCM law with different values of R v . We present examples of such curves. The study of both types of peculiar cases can help us to learn about the physical processes that affect dust in the interstellar medium, e.g., formation of mantles on the surface of grains, evaporation, growing or shattering

  3. Period of Light Variability in BL Lac ON 231 Xu Yun Bing1, Zhang ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    period light variability may be greater than the current observation history and needs further monitoring certification (Zhang et al. 1998). To establish the real periods of ON 231, we employ wavelet analysis and DCF method to search a periodicity in the light curves. 2. Periodicity analysis of ON231. 2.1 Light curve of ON 231.

  4. THE SHORT ROTATION PERIOD OF HI’IAKA, HAUMEA’S LARGEST SATELLITE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hastings, Danielle M.; Margot, Jean-Luc [University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, 595 Charles Young Drive East, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Ragozzine, Darin [Florida Institute of Technology, Department of Physics and Space Sciences, 150 West University Boulevard, Melbourne, FL 32901 (United States); Fabrycky, Daniel C. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Burkhart, Luke D.; Holman, Matthew [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Fuentes, Cesar [Departamento de Astronomía, Universidad de Chile, Camino El Observatorio 1515, Santiago (Chile); Brown, Michael E., E-mail: dhastings@g.ucla.edu [California Institute of Technology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, MC 150-21, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Hi’iaka is the larger outer satellite of the dwarf planet Haumea. Using relative photometry from the Hubble Space Telescope and Magellan and a phase dispersion minimization analysis, we have identified the rotation period of Hi’iaka to be ∼9.8 hr (double peaked). This is ∼120 times faster than its orbital period, creating new questions about the formation of this system and possible tidal evolution. The rapid rotation suggests that Hi’iaka could have a significant obliquity and spin precession that could be visible in light curves within a few years. We then turn to an investigation of what we learn about the (currently unclear) formation of the Haumea system and family based on this unexpectedly rapid rotation rate. We explore the importance of the initial semimajor axis and rotation period in tidal evolution theory and find that they strongly influence the time required to despin to synchronous rotation, relevant to understanding a wide variety of satellite and binary systems. We find that despinning tides do not necessarily lead to synchronous spin periods for Hi’iaka, even if it formed near the Roche limit. Therefore, the short rotation period of Hi’iaka does not rule out significant tidal evolution. Hi’iaka’s spin period is also consistent with formation near its current location and spin-up due to Haumea-centric impactors.

  5. "Alarm-corrected" ergonomic armrest use could improve learning curves of novices on robotic simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kun; Perez, Manuela; Hossu, Gabriela; Hubert, Nicolas; Perrenot, Cyril; Hubert, Jacques

    2017-01-01

    In robotic surgery, the professional ergonomic habit of using an armrest reduces operator fatigue and increases the precision of motion. We designed and validated a pressure surveillance system (PSS) based on force sensors to investigate armrest use. The objective was to evaluate whether adding an alarm to the PSS system could shorten ergonomic training and improve performance. Twenty robot and simulator-naïve participants were recruited and randomized in two groups (A and B). The PSS was installed on a robotic simulator, the dV-Trainer, to detect contact with the armrest. The Group A members completed three tasks on the dV-Trainer without the alarm, making 15 attempts at each task. The Group B members practiced the first two tasks with the alarm and then completed the final tasks without the alarm. The simulator provided an overall score reflecting the trainees' performance. We used the new concept of an "armrest load" score to describe the ergonomic habit of using the armrest. Group B had a significantly higher performance score (p ergonomic errors and accelerated professional ergonomic habit acquisition. The combination of the PSS and alarm is effective in significantly shortening the learning curve in the robotic training process.

  6. IS THE J-CURVE EFFECT OBSERVABLE IN TURKISH AGRICULTURAL SECTOR?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet YAZICI

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds in Turkish agricultural sector. The analysis is conducted using the model the most commonly employed in j-curve literature. Based on the data covering the period from 1986: I to 1998: III, our results indicate that, following devaluation, agricultural trade balance initially improves, then worsens, and then improves again. This pattern shows that J-curve effect does not exist in Turkish agricultural sector. Another important fi nding is that devaluation worsens the trade balance of the sector in the long run, a result contradicting with the earlier fi ndings for the Turkish economy as a whole.

  7. On-line learning through simple perceptron learning with a margin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, Kazuyuki; Okada, Masato

    2004-03-01

    We analyze a learning method that uses a margin kappa a la Gardner for simple perceptron learning. This method corresponds to the perceptron learning when kappa = 0 and to the Hebbian learning when kappa = infinity. Nevertheless, we found that the generalization ability of the method was superior to that of the perceptron and the Hebbian methods at an early stage of learning. We analyzed the asymptotic property of the learning curve of this method through computer simulation and found that it was the same as for perceptron learning. We also investigated an adaptive margin control method.

  8. A multiplicative reinforcement learning model capturing learning dynamics and interindividual variability in mice

    OpenAIRE

    Bathellier, Brice; Tee, Sui Poh; Hrovat, Christina; Rumpel, Simon

    2013-01-01

    Learning speed can strongly differ across individuals. This is seen in humans and animals. Here, we measured learning speed in mice performing a discrimination task and developed a theoretical model based on the reinforcement learning framework to account for differences between individual mice. We found that, when using a multiplicative learning rule, the starting connectivity values of the model strongly determine the shape of learning curves. This is in contrast to current learning models ...

  9. Long-Period Variability in o Ceti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

    2009-02-01

    We carried out a new and sensitive search for long-period variability in the prototype of the Mira class of long-period pulsating variables, o Ceti (Mira A), the closest and brightest Mira variable. We conducted this search using an unbroken light curve from 1902 to the present, assembled from the visual data archives of five major variable star observing organizations from around the world. We applied several time-series analysis techniques to search for two specific kinds of variability: long secondary periods (LSPs) longer than the dominant pulsation period of ~333 days, and long-term period variation in the dominant pulsation period itself. The data quality is sufficient to detect coherent periodic variations with photometric amplitudes of 0.05 mag or less. We do not find evidence for coherent LSPs in o Ceti to a limit of 0.1 mag, where the amplitude limit is set by intrinsic, stochastic, low-frequency variability of approximately 0.1 mag. We marginally detect a slight modulation of the pulsation period similar in timescale to that observed in the Miras with meandering periods, but with a much lower period amplitude of ±2 days. However, we do find clear evidence of a low-frequency power-law component in the Fourier spectrum of o Ceti's long-term light curve. The amplitude of this stochastic variability is approximately 0.1 mag at a period of 1000 days, and it exhibits a turnover for periods longer than this. This spectrum is similar to the red noise spectra observed in red supergiants.

  10. Analysis of the learning curve for pre-cut corneal specimens in preparation for lamellar transplantation: a prospective, single-centre, consecutive case series prepared at the Lions New South Wales Eye Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Aifric Isabel; Devasahayam, Rajnesh; Hodge, Christopher; Cooper, Simon; Sutton, Gerard L

    2017-09-01

    This study is the first paper to establish a learning curve by a single technician. Preparation of pre-cut corneal endothelial grafts commenced at Lions New South Wales Eye Bank in December 2014. The primary objective of this study was to review the safety and reliability of the preparation method during the first year of production. This is a hospital-based, prospective case series. There were 234 consecutive donor corneal lenticules. Donor lenticules were prepared by a single operator using a linear cutting microkeratome. Immediately prior to cutting, central corneal thickness values were recorded. Measurements of the corneal bed were taken immediately following lenticule preparation. Outcomes were separated by blade sizes, and intended thickness was compared to actual thickness for each setting. Early specimens were compared to later ones to assess for a learning curve within the technique. The main parameter measured is the mean difference from intended lamellar cut thickness. The mean final cut thickness was 122.36 ± 20.35 μm, and the mean difference from intended cut was 30.17 ± 37.45 μm. No significant difference was found between results achieved with early specimens versus those achieved with later specimens (P = 0.425). Thin, reproducible endothelial grafts can routinely be produced by trained technicians at their respective eye banks without significant concerns for an extended learning curve. This service can reduce perioperative surgical complexity, required surgical paraphernalia and theatre times. The consistent preparation of single-pass, ultrathin pre-cut corneas may have additional advantages for surgeons seeking to introduce lamellar techniques. © 2017 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

  11. Spaghetti Sine Curves: Virtual Environments for Reasoning and Sense Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgün-Koca, S. Asli; Edwards, Michael Todd; Meagher, Michael

    2013-01-01

    In a recent collaboration with an area high school teacher, the authors were asked to develop an introductory sinusoidal curves lesson for a group of second-year algebra students. Because the topic was abstract and unfamiliar to these tenth graders, they looked for hands-on lessons to support their learning. One lesson that they found, which they…

  12. Empirical Analysis on The Existence of The Phillips Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaari Mohd Shahidan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Phillips curve shows the trade-off relationship between the inflation and unemployment rates. A rise in inflation due to the high economic growth, more jobs are available and therefore unemployment will fall. However, the existence of the Phillips curve in high-income countries has not been much discussed. Countries with high income should have low unemployment rate, suggesting a high inflation. However, some high-income countries, the United States in 1970s for example, could not avert stagflation whereby high unemployment rate and inflation occurred in the same time. This situation is contrary to the Phillips curve. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the existence of the Phillips curve in high-income countries for the period 1990-2014 using the panel data analysis. The most interesting finding of this study is the existence of a bidirectional relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate in both long and short runs. Therefore, the governments should choose to stabilize inflation rate or reduce unemployment rate

  13. Use of the cumulative sum method (CUSUM) to assess the learning curves of ultrasound-guided continuous femoral nerve block.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kollmann-Camaiora, A; Brogly, N; Alsina, E; Gilsanz, F

    2017-10-01

    Although ultrasound is a basic competence for anaesthesia residents (AR) there is few data available on the learning process. This prospective observational study aims to assess the learning process of ultrasound-guided continuous femoral nerve block and to determine the number of procedures that a resident would need to perform in order to reach proficiency using the cumulative sum (CUSUM) method. We recruited 19 AR without previous experience. Learning curves were constructed using the CUSUM method for ultrasound-guided continuous femoral nerve block considering 2 success criteria: a decrease of pain score>2 in a [0-10] scale after 15minutes, and time required to perform it. We analyse data from 17 AR for a total of 237 ultrasound-guided continuous femoral nerve blocks. 8/17 AR became proficient for pain relief, however all the AR who did more than 12 blocks (8/8) became proficient. As for time of performance 5/17 of AR achieved the objective of 12minutes, however all the AR who did more than 20 blocks (4/4) achieved it. The number of procedures needed to achieve proficiency seems to be 12, however it takes more procedures to reduce performance time. The CUSUM methodology could be useful in training programs to allow early interventions in case of repeated failures, and develop competence-based curriculum. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. Effect of year of birth on the breast cancer age-incidence curve in Iceland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjarnason, O [Univ. of Iceland, Reykjavik; Day, N; Snaedal, G; Tulinius, H

    1974-01-01

    Among different populations, the shape of the age-incidence curve for breast cancer is strongly related to the overall incidence of breast cancer in the respective population. Data are available from Iceland for the period 1911--1972. These data show that breast cancer has increased very markedly in Iceland during this period, and that as the overall incidence has risen, so the age-incidence curve has changed in shape, the relation between the shape and the overall incidence being the same as that now observed in other countries. The change in shape is shown to be explicable entirely as a cohort phenomenon, each decade of birth cohort having an age-incidence curve of similar shape, but with different overall incidence. Data from some other regions of the world indicate that many of the present differences in the shape of the age-incidence curve may be the reflection of cohort phenomena.

  15. How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2011-12-01

    Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

  16. Incorporating experience curves in appliance standards analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desroches, Louis-Benoit; Garbesi, Karina; Kantner, Colleen; Van Buskirk, Robert; Yang, Hung-Chia

    2013-01-01

    There exists considerable evidence that manufacturing costs and consumer prices of residential appliances have decreased in real terms over the last several decades. This phenomenon is generally attributable to manufacturing efficiency gained with cumulative experience producing a certain good, and is modeled by an empirical experience curve. The technical analyses conducted in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have, until recently, assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. This assumption does not reflect real market price dynamics. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners, clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards analyses for these products. Including experience curves increases the national consumer net present value of potential standard levels. In some cases a potential standard level exhibits a net benefit when considering experience, whereas without experience it exhibits a net cost. These results highlight the importance of modeling more representative market prices. - Highlights: ► Past appliance standards analyses have assumed constant equipment prices. ► There is considerable evidence of consistent real price declines. ► We incorporate experience curves for several large appliances into the analysis. ► The revised analyses demonstrate larger net present values of potential standards. ► The results imply that past standards analyses may have undervalued benefits.

  17. UBV Light Curves of AR Lacertae During 1980-'81 and 1981-'82

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Il-Seong Nha

    1985-12-01

    Full Text Available The UBV observations of the brightest RE CVn-type eclipsing binary star AR Lac were made at four observatories, two in Korea and two in the U.S. in the 1980-81 and 1981-82 seasons. As a result of the cooperation, two light curves in the yellow and in the blue were completed for each observing seasons. Ultraviolet observations were also made at three of the four observatories. The orbital period of AR Lac apparantly decreased around 1977. An analysis of our yellow light curves together with five other yellow curves available in the literature since 1975 shows that there seems no periodicity in the migration of the distortion waves. There is a gradual decrease of at least 0.m1 between 1976 and 1982 in the brightness of the cooler component if one assumes that the hotter component is constant.

  18. Handbook of elliptic and hyperelliptic curve cryptography

    CERN Document Server

    Cohen, Henri; Avanzi, Roberto; Doche, Christophe; Lange, Tanja; Nguyen, Kim; Vercauteren, Frederik

    2005-01-01

    … very comprehensive coverage of this vast subject area … a useful and essential treatise for anyone involved in elliptic curve algorithms … this book offers the opportunity to grasp the ECC technology with a diversified and comprehensive perspective. … This book will remain on my shelf for a long time and will land on my desk on many occasions, if only because the coverage of the issues common to factoring and discrete log cryptosystems is excellent.-IACR Book Reviews, June 2011… the book is designed for people who are working in the area and want to learn more about a specific issue. The chapters are written to be relatively independent so that readers can focus on the part of interest for them. Such readers will be grateful for the excellent index and extensive bibliography. … the handbook covers a wide range of topics and will be a valuable reference for researchers in curve-based cryptography. -Steven D. Galbraith, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2007f.

  19. Use of structure-activity landscape index curves and curve integrals to evaluate the performance of multiple machine learning prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledonne, Norman C; Rissolo, Kevin; Bulgarelli, James; Tini, Leonard

    2011-02-07

    Standard approaches to address the performance of predictive models that used common statistical measurements for the entire data set provide an overview of the average performance of the models across the entire predictive space, but give little insight into applicability of the model across the prediction space. Guha and Van Drie recently proposed the use of structure-activity landscape index (SALI) curves via the SALI curve integral (SCI) as a means to map the predictive power of computational models within the predictive space. This approach evaluates model performance by assessing the accuracy of pairwise predictions, comparing compound pairs in a manner similar to that done by medicinal chemists. The SALI approach was used to evaluate the performance of continuous prediction models for MDR1-MDCK in vitro efflux potential. Efflux models were built with ADMET Predictor neural net, support vector machine, kernel partial least squares, and multiple linear regression engines, as well as SIMCA-P+ partial least squares, and random forest from Pipeline Pilot as implemented by AstraZeneca, using molecular descriptors from SimulationsPlus and AstraZeneca. The results indicate that the choice of training sets used to build the prediction models is of great importance in the resulting model quality and that the SCI values calculated for these models were very similar to their Kendall τ values, leading to our suggestion of an approach to use this SALI/SCI paradigm to evaluate predictive model performance that will allow more informed decisions regarding model utility. The use of SALI graphs and curves provides an additional level of quality assessment for predictive models.

  20. Ensemble Learning Method for Outlier Detection and its Application to Astronomical Light Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nun, Isadora; Protopapas, Pavlos; Sim, Brandon; Chen, Wesley

    2016-09-01

    Outlier detection is necessary for automated data analysis, with specific applications spanning almost every domain from financial markets to epidemiology to fraud detection. We introduce a novel mixture of the experts outlier detection model, which uses a dynamically trained, weighted network of five distinct outlier detection methods. After dimensionality reduction, individual outlier detection methods score each data point for “outlierness” in this new feature space. Our model then uses dynamically trained parameters to weigh the scores of each method, allowing for a finalized outlier score. We find that the mixture of experts model performs, on average, better than any single expert model in identifying both artificially and manually picked outliers. This mixture model is applied to a data set of astronomical light curves, after dimensionality reduction via time series feature extraction. Our model was tested using three fields from the MACHO catalog and generated a list of anomalous candidates. We confirm that the outliers detected using this method belong to rare classes, like Novae, He-burning, and red giant stars; other outlier light curves identified have no available information associated with them. To elucidate their nature, we created a website containing the light-curve data and information about these objects. Users can attempt to classify the light curves, give conjectures about their identities, and sign up for follow up messages about the progress made on identifying these objects. This user submitted data can be used further train of our mixture of experts model. Our code is publicly available to all who are interested.

  1. SPITZER SPACE TELESCOPE MID-IR LIGHT CURVES OF NEPTUNE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, John; Rebull, Luisa; Carey, Sean J.; Krick, Jessica; Ingalls, James G.; Lowrance, Patrick; Glaccum, William [Spitzer Science Center (SSC), California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Marley, Mark S. [NASA Ames Research Center, Space Sciences and Astrobiology Division, MS245-3, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Gizis, John E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716 (United States); Kirkpatrick, J. Davy [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, MS 100-22, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Simon, Amy A. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Solar System Exploration Division (690.0), 8800 Greenbelt Road, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Wong, Michael H. [University of California, Department of Astronomy, Berkeley CA 94720-3411 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    We have used the Spitzer Space Telescope in 2016 February to obtain high cadence, high signal-to-noise, 17 hr duration light curves of Neptune at 3.6 and 4.5 μ m. The light curve duration was chosen to correspond to the rotation period of Neptune. Both light curves are slowly varying with time, with full amplitudes of 1.1 mag at 3.6 μ m and 0.6 mag at 4.5 μ m. We have also extracted sparsely sampled 18 hr light curves of Neptune at W1 (3.4 μ m) and W2 (4.6 μ m) from the Wide-feld Infrared Survey Explorer ( WISE )/ NEOWISE archive at six epochs in 2010–2015. These light curves all show similar shapes and amplitudes compared to the Spitzer light curves but with considerable variation from epoch to epoch. These amplitudes are much larger than those observed with Kepler / K 2 in the visible (amplitude ∼0.02 mag) or at 845 nm with the Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) in 2015 and at 763 nm in 2016 (amplitude ∼0.2 mag). We interpret the Spitzer and WISE light curves as arising entirely from reflected solar photons, from higher levels in Neptune’s atmosphere than for K 2. Methane gas is the dominant opacity source in Neptune’s atmosphere, and methane absorption bands are present in the HST 763 and 845 nm, WISE W1, and Spitzer 3.6 μ m filters.

  2. Feasibility and utility of transradial cerebral angiography: experience during the learning period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ji Hyung; Park, Yong Sung; Chung, Chul Gu; Park, Kyeong Sug; Chung, Dong Jin; Kim, Hyun Jin

    2006-01-01

    We wanted to present our experiences for performing transradial cerebral angiography during the learning period, and we also wanted to demonstrate this procedure's technical feasibility and utility in various clinical situations. Thirty-two patients were enrolled in the study. All of them had unfavorable situations for performing transfemoral angiography, i.e., IV lines in the bilateral femoral vein, a phobia for groin puncture, decreased blood platelet counts, large hematoma or bruise, atherosclerosis in the bilateral femoral artery and the insistence of patients for choosing another procedure. After con firming the patency of the ulnar artery with a modified Allen's test and a pulse oximeter, the procedure was done using a 21-G micorpuncture set and 5-F Simon II catheters. After angiography, hemostasis was achieved with 1-2 minutes of manual compression and the subsequent application of a hospital-made wrist brace for two hours. The technical feasibility and procedure-related immediate and delayed complications were evaluated. The procedure was successful in 30/32 patients (93.8%). Failure occurred in two patients; one patient had hypoplasia of the radial artery and one patient had vasospasm following multiple puncture trials for the radial artery. Transradial cerebral angiography was technically feasible without significant difficulties even though it was tried during the learning period. Pain in the forearm or arm developed in some patients during the procedures, but this was usually mild and transient. Procedure-related immediate complications included severe bruising in one patient and a small hematoma in one patient. Any clinically significant complication or delayed complication such as radial artery occlusion was not demonstrated in our series. Transradial cerebral angiography is a useful alternative for the patients who have unfavorable clinical situations or contraindications for performing transfemoral cerebral angiography. For the experienced

  3. Feasibility and utility of transradial cerebral angiography: experience during the learning period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ji Hyung; Park, Yong Sung; Chung, Chul Gu; Park, Kyeong Sug; Chung, Dong Jin; Kim, Hyun Jin [Konyang University Hospital, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-03-15

    We wanted to present our experiences for performing transradial cerebral angiography during the learning period, and we also wanted to demonstrate this procedure's technical feasibility and utility in various clinical situations. Thirty-two patients were enrolled in the study. All of them had unfavorable situations for performing transfemoral angiography, i.e., IV lines in the bilateral femoral vein, a phobia for groin puncture, decreased blood platelet counts, large hematoma or bruise, atherosclerosis in the bilateral femoral artery and the insistence of patients for choosing another procedure. After con firming the patency of the ulnar artery with a modified Allen's test and a pulse oximeter, the procedure was done using a 21-G micorpuncture set and 5-F Simon II catheters. After angiography, hemostasis was achieved with 1-2 minutes of manual compression and the subsequent application of a hospital-made wrist brace for two hours. The technical feasibility and procedure-related immediate and delayed complications were evaluated. The procedure was successful in 30/32 patients (93.8%). Failure occurred in two patients; one patient had hypoplasia of the radial artery and one patient had vasospasm following multiple puncture trials for the radial artery. Transradial cerebral angiography was technically feasible without significant difficulties even though it was tried during the learning period. Pain in the forearm or arm developed in some patients during the procedures, but this was usually mild and transient. Procedure-related immediate complications included severe bruising in one patient and a small hematoma in one patient. Any clinically significant complication or delayed complication such as radial artery occlusion was not demonstrated in our series. Transradial cerebral angiography is a useful alternative for the patients who have unfavorable clinical situations or contraindications for performing transfemoral cerebral angiography. For the experienced

  4. On some Closed Magnetic Curves on a 3-torus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munteanu, Marian Ioan, E-mail: marian.ioan.munteanu@gmail.com [Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iaşi, Faculty of Mathematics (Romania); Nistor, Ana Irina, E-mail: ana.irina.nistor@gmail.com [Gh. Asachi Technical University of Iaşi, Department of Mathematics and Informatics (Romania)

    2017-06-15

    We consider two magnetic fields on the 3-torus obtained from two different contact forms on the Euclidean 3-space and we study when their corresponding normal magnetic curves are closed. We obtain periodicity conditions analogues to those for the closed geodesics on the torus.

  5. Use of structure-activity landscape index curves and curve integrals to evaluate the performance of multiple machine learning prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LeDonne Norman C

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Standard approaches to address the performance of predictive models that used common statistical measurements for the entire data set provide an overview of the average performance of the models across the entire predictive space, but give little insight into applicability of the model across the prediction space. Guha and Van Drie recently proposed the use of structure-activity landscape index (SALI curves via the SALI curve integral (SCI as a means to map the predictive power of computational models within the predictive space. This approach evaluates model performance by assessing the accuracy of pairwise predictions, comparing compound pairs in a manner similar to that done by medicinal chemists. Results The SALI approach was used to evaluate the performance of continuous prediction models for MDR1-MDCK in vitro efflux potential. Efflux models were built with ADMET Predictor neural net, support vector machine, kernel partial least squares, and multiple linear regression engines, as well as SIMCA-P+ partial least squares, and random forest from Pipeline Pilot as implemented by AstraZeneca, using molecular descriptors from SimulationsPlus and AstraZeneca. Conclusion The results indicate that the choice of training sets used to build the prediction models is of great importance in the resulting model quality and that the SCI values calculated for these models were very similar to their Kendall τ values, leading to our suggestion of an approach to use this SALI/SCI paradigm to evaluate predictive model performance that will allow more informed decisions regarding model utility. The use of SALI graphs and curves provides an additional level of quality assessment for predictive models.

  6. POSSIBLE RECESSION CURVE APPLICATIONS FOR RETENTION EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Liberacki

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the article was to present possible applications of recession flow curve in a small lowland watershed retention discharge size evaluation. The examined woodland micro catchment area of 0.52 sq km is located in Puszcza Zielonka in central Wielkopolska. The Hutka catchment is typically woody with high retention abilities. The catchment of the Hutka watercourse is forested in 89%, the other 11% is covered by swamps and wasteland. The predominant sites are fresh mixed coniferous forest (BMśw, fresh coniferous forest (Bśw and alder carr forest (Ol. Landscape in catchment is characterized by a large number of interior depressions, filled partly with rainwater or peatbogs, with poorly developed natural drainage. The watercourses do not exceed 1 km in length, the mean width is approx. 0.5 m, while mean depth ranges from 0.2 to 0.3 m. During hydrological research conducted in 1997/1998–1999/2000, 35 major (characteristic raised water stages were observed in Hutka after substantial precipitation. The recession curve dating from 18–24 September 2000 has the α and n rates nearest to average. Comparing the model curve and the curve created by observing watercourse flow, one can notice their resemblance and that they have similar ordinate values as well as shape. In the case of other recession curves, the maximum differences of ordinate values are also about 0.1–0.2 l/s/km2. The measuured α and n rates do not reveal any regularities. There are no significant statistical Horton model parameter (for recession flow curves dependencies between α and n and e.g. initial flows (Qo or the whole period of high water waves (Qp. Consequently, calculated relation between these parameters is only an approximation for the general evaluation of the retention discharge in the catchment area towards retention with flow function.

  7. STELLAR PULSATIONS AND PERIOD CHANGES IN THE SX PHOENICIS STAR XX CYGNI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, X. H.; Fu, J. N.; Zha, Q.

    2012-01-01

    Time-series photometric observations were made for the SX Phoenicis star XX Cyg between 2007 and 2011 at the Xinglong Station of National Astronomical Observatories of China. With the light curves derived from the new observations, we do not detect any secondary maximum in the descending portion of the light curves of XX Cyg, as reported in some previous work. Frequency analysis of the light curves confirms a fundamental frequency f 0 = 7.4148 cycles day –1 and up to 19 harmonics, 11 of which are newly detected. However, no secondary mode of pulsation is detected from the light curves. The O–C diagram, produced from 46 newly determined times of maximum light combined with those derived from the literature, reveals a continuous period increase with the rate of (1/P)(dP/dt) = 1.19(13) × 10 –8 yr -1 . Theoretical rates of period change due to the stellar evolution were calculated with a modeling code. The result shows that the observed rate of period change is fully consistent with period change caused by evolutionary behavior predicted by standard theoretical models.

  8. Limiting rotational period of neutron stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glendenning, Norman K.

    1992-11-01

    We seek an absolute limit on the rotational period for a neutron star as a function of its mass, based on the minimal constraints imposed by Einstein's theory of relativity, Le Chatelier's principle, causality, and a low-density equation of state, uncertainties in which can be evaluated as to their effect on the result. This establishes a limiting curve in the mass-period plane below which no pulsar that is a neutron star can lie. For example, the minimum possible Kepler period, which is an absolute limit on rotation below which mass shedding would occur, is 0.33 ms for a M=1.442Msolar neutron star (the mass of PSR1913+16). A still lower curve, based only on the structure of Einstein's equations, limits any star whatsoever to lie in the plane above it. Hypothetical stars such as strange stars, if the matter of which they are made is self-bound in bulk at a sufficiently large equilibrium energy density, can lie in the region above the general-relativistic forbidden region, and in the region forbidden to neutron stars.

  9. Limiting rotational period of neutron stars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glendenning, N.K.

    1992-01-01

    We seek an absolute limit on the rotational period for a neutron star as a function of its mass, based on the minimal constraints imposed by Einstein's theory of relativity, Le Chatelier's principle, causality, and a low-density equation of state, uncertainties in which can be evaluated as to their effect on the result. This establishes a limiting curve in the mass-period plane below which no pulsar that is a neutron star can lie. For example, the minimum possible Kepler period, which is an absolute limit on rotation below which mass shedding would occur, is 0.33 ms for a M=1.442M circle-dot neutron star (the mass of PSR1913+16). A still lower curve, based only on the structure of Einstein's equations, limits any star whatsoever to lie in the plane above it. Hypothetical stars such as strange stars, if the matter of which they are made is self-bound in bulk at a sufficiently large equilibrium energy density, can lie in the region above the general-relativistic forbidden region, and in the region forbidden to neutron stars

  10. Stability of Stellar Periods in the Hyades and Taurus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebull, Luisa M.; Stauffer, John R.; K2 Clusters Team

    2018-06-01

    K2 has opened to us the study of high-precision light curves from which we can derive stellar rotation periods. We have presented period distributions for the Pleiades, Praesepe, Upper Sco and Rho Oph. But, how stable are the periods we are deriving from them? Early ground-based work in Orion (Rebull 2001) suggested that, for the youngest stars, about half the stars had sufficiently different spot distributions in two consecutive years such that periods could not be recovered in the second year. However, now that we have K2, precision and diurnal windowing functions are no longer really much of a concern. For a handful of stars in Hyades and Taurus, the K2 spacecraft monitored them for two non-consecutive 70d windows (campaigns 4, 2015 Feb and 13, 2017 Mar). In this poster, we examine whether or not the light curves are similar in the two epochs, and how accurately the same period can be recovered.

  11. UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M.; Betancourt, M.

    2015-01-01

    Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST

  12. UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Betancourt, M., E-mail: nsanders@cfa.harvard.edu [Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom)

    2015-02-10

    Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.

  13. Analyzing price and efficiency dynamics of large appliances with the experience curve approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, Martin; Patel, Martin K.; Junginger, Martin; Blok, Kornelis

    2010-01-01

    Large appliances are major power consumers in households of industrialized countries. Although their energy efficiency has been increasing substantially in past decades, still additional energy efficiency potentials exist. Energy policy that aims at realizing these potentials faces, however, growing concerns about possible adverse effects on commodity prices. Here, we address these concerns by applying the experience curve approach to analyze long-term price and energy efficiency trends of three wet appliances (washing machines, laundry dryers, and dishwashers) and two cold appliances (refrigerators and freezers). We identify a robust long-term decline in both specific price and specific energy consumption of large appliances. Specific prices of wet appliances decline at learning rates (LR) of 29±8% and thereby much faster than those of cold appliances (LR of 9±4%). Our results demonstrate that technological learning leads to substantial price decline, thus indicating that the introduction of novel and initially expensive energy efficiency technologies does not necessarily imply adverse price effects in the long term. By extending the conventional experience curve approach, we find a steady decline in the specific energy consumption of wet appliances (LR of 20-35%) and cold appliances (LR of 13-17%). Our analysis suggests that energy policy might be able to bend down energy experience curves. (author)

  14. Complex curve of the two-matrix model and its tau-function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazakov, Vladimir A; Marshakov, Andrei

    2003-01-01

    We study the Hermitian and normal two-matrix models in planar approximation for an arbitrary number of eigenvalue supports. Its planar graph interpretation is given. The study reveals a general structure of the underlying analytic complex curve, different from the hyperelliptic curve of the one-matrix model. The matrix model quantities are expressed through the periods of meromorphic generating differential on this curve and the partition function of the multiple support solution, as a function of filling numbers and coefficients of the matrix potential, is shown to be a quasiclassical tau-function. The relation to N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theories is discussed. A general class of solvable multi-matrix models with tree-like interactions is considered

  15. Correlation between SiO v = 3 J = 1 → 0 maser excitation and the light curve of a long-period variable star

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyadomari, Miyako; Imai, Hiroshi; Nagayama, Takumi; Oyama, Tomoaki; Matsumoto, Naoko; Nakashima, Jun-ichi; Cho, Se-Hyung

    2018-03-01

    In order to understand the excitation mechanisms of silicon monoxide (SiO) masers around long-period variables (LPVs), we have investigated distributions of the SiO v = 2 and v = 3 J = 1 → 0 masers around 12 LPVs by very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations with the VLBI Exploration of Radio Astrometry (VERA) and the Nobeyama 45 m telescopes. VLBI fringes of the v = 3 maser emission were detected for five LPVs. The composite maps of the v = 2 and v = 3 masers were made for T Cep, W Hya, WX Psc, and R Leo using the spectral line phase-referencing technique. The v = 2 maser spots were distributed in a ring-like form around the central stars, while it is difficult to recognize any specific morphology in the v = 3 maser distributions due to the small number of v = 3 spots detected. However in T Cep, we find that the distribution of the v = 3 maser spots correlates well with the v = 2 masers within a few milliarcseconds (0.2-0.3 au) in position and 1 km s-1 in line-of-sight velocity at the light curve phase of ϕ = 0.28 (ϕ = 0.0 and 1.0 correspond to the visible light maxima). This correlation implies that the mechanism of line-overlapping between the mid-infrared lines of H2O and SiO molecules works in T Cep at ϕ = 0.28. We discuss the possibility that the line-overlapping may work at the limited duration from the maximum to the minimum of the stellar light curve.

  16. On complex periodic motions and bifurcations in a periodically forced, damped, hardening Duffing oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Yu; Luo, Albert C.J.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, analytically predicted are complex periodic motions in the periodically forced, damped, hardening Duffing oscillator through discrete implicit maps of the corresponding differential equations. Bifurcation trees of periodic motions to chaos in such a hardening Duffing oscillator are obtained. The stability and bifurcation analysis of periodic motion in the bifurcation trees is carried out by eigenvalue analysis. The solutions of all discrete nodes of periodic motions are computed by the mapping structures of discrete implicit mapping. The frequency-amplitude characteristics of periodic motions are computed that are based on the discrete Fourier series. Thus, the bifurcation trees of periodic motions are also presented through frequency-amplitude curves. Finally, based on the analytical predictions, the initial conditions of periodic motions are selected, and numerical simulations of periodic motions are carried out for comparison of numerical and analytical predictions. The harmonic amplitude spectrums are also given for the approximate analytical expressions of periodic motions, which can also be used for comparison with experimental measurement. This study will give a better understanding of complex periodic motions in the hardening Duffing oscillator.

  17. Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallagher, Brian

    2011-01-01

    A logistic function is used to characterize peak and ultimate production of global crude oil and petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Annual oil production data were incrementally summed to construct a logistic curve in its initial phase. Using a curve-fitting approach, a population-growth logistic function was applied to complete the cumulative production curve. The simulated curve was then deconstructed into a set of annual oil production data producing an 'idealized' Hubbert curve. An idealized Hubbert curve (IHC) is defined as having properties of production data resulting from a constant growth-rate under fixed resource limits. An IHC represents a potential production curve constructed from cumulative production data and provides a new perspective for estimating peak production periods and remaining resources. The IHC model data show that idealized peak oil production occurred in 2009 at 83.2 Mb/d (30.4 Gb/y). IHC simulations of truncated historical oil production data produced similar results and indicate that this methodology can be useful as a prediction tool. - Research Highlights: →Global oil production data were analyzed by a simple curve fitting method. →Best fit-curve results were obtained using two logistic functions on select data. →A broad potential oil production peak is forecast for the years from 2004 to 2014. →Similar results were obtained using historical data from about 10 to 30 years ago. →Two potential oil production decline scenarios were presented and compared.

  18. Corot 310266512: A Light Curve With Primary, Secondary And Tertiary Eclipses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernández Fernández Javier

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the photometric study of an interesting target in the CoRoT exoplanet database: CoRoT 310266512. Its light curve shows primary, secondary and tertiary eclipses that suggests the presence of at least three celestial bodies. The primary and secondary eclipses have the same orbital period, 7.42 days, and the tertiary eclipse has an orbital period of 3.27 days. Two of the tertiary eclipses fall within a primary eclipse and a secondary eclipse. The properties of the light curve indicate the presence of two physically separated systems. The primary and secondary eclipses corresponds to a binary system (System I. The tertiary eclipses correspond to a star-planet system or a star-dwarf system (System II. Some parameters of these two systems are obtained from JKTEBOP [1] program.

  19. Quasi-periodic luminosity variations in dwarf novae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, E.L.; Nather, R.E.

    1979-01-01

    We have identified quasi-periodic oscillations in the light curves of five dwarf novae--U Gem, SS Cyg, RU Peg, KT Per, and VW Hyi-- and in the light curve of the quasi-periodic X-ray source Sco X-1. The mean periods of the quasi-periodic oscillations range from 32 s in SS Cyg to 147 s in KT Per and 165 s in Sco X-l. Their amplitudes are typically 0.005--0.0l mag. The properties of the quasi-periodic oscillations are represented well by a second-order autoregressive process. Use of this representation shows that the length of time over which the quasi-periodic oscillations maintain coherence is very short, typically 3--5 cycles of the oscillations. Thus the quasi-periodic oscillations can be distinguished from the short-period coherent oscillations in dwarf novae, which are usually interpreted as white dwarf pulsations, because t the periods of the quasi-periodic oscillations are 3--4 times longer and their coherence time is much shorter. The quasi-periodic oscillations occur in dwarf novae only during their eruptions and occur in Sco X-l only when the system is bright. The presence of the oscillations does not depend on the subclass to which a dwarf nova belongs or on the morphology of the individual eruptions. We argue that their short periods, their short coherence times, and their presence in Sco X-l require that the quasi-periodic oscillations be produced by the accretion disk, and not by the stars or by the boundary between the a accretion disk and its central star

  20. Simulation-optimization model of reservoir operation based on target storage curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-bin Fang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new storage allocation rule based on target storage curves. Joint operating rules are also proposed to solve the operation problems of a multi-reservoir system with joint demands and water transfer-supply projects. The joint operating rules include a water diversion rule to determine the amount of diverted water in a period, a hedging rule based on an aggregated reservoir to determine the total release from the system, and a storage allocation rule to specify the release from each reservoir. A simulation-optimization model was established to optimize the key points of the water diversion curves, the hedging rule curves, and the target storage curves using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm. The multi-reservoir water supply system located in Liaoning Province, China, including a water transfer-supply project, was employed as a case study to verify the effectiveness of the proposed join operating rules and target storage curves. The results indicate that the proposed operating rules are suitable for the complex system. The storage allocation rule based on target storage curves shows an improved performance with regard to system storage distribution.

  1. Interactions of cosmic rays in the atmosphere: growth curves revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Obermeier, A.; Boyle, P.; Müller, D. [Enrico Fermi Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Hörandel, J., E-mail: a.obermeier@astro.ru.nl [Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen, 6525-HP Nijmegen (Netherlands)

    2013-12-01

    Measurements of cosmic-ray abundances on balloons are affected by interactions in the residual atmosphere above the balloon. Corrections for such interactions are particularly important for observations of rare secondary particles such as boron, antiprotons, and positrons. These corrections either can be calculated if the relevant cross sections in the atmosphere are known or may be empirically determined by extrapolation of the 'growth curves', i.e., the individual particle intensities as functions of atmospheric depth. The growth-curve technique is particularly attractive for long-duration balloon flights where the periodic daily altitude variations permit rather precise determinations of the corresponding particle intensity variations. We determine growth curves for nuclei from boron (Z = 5) to iron (Z = 26) using data from the 2006 Arctic balloon flight of the TRACER detector for cosmic-ray nuclei, and we compare the growth curves with predictions from published cross section values. In general, good agreement is observed. We then study the boron/carbon abundance ratio and derive a simple and energy-independent correction term for this ratio. We emphasize that the growth-curve technique can be developed further to provide highly accurate tests of published interaction cross section values.

  2. Multiple bifurcations and periodic 'bubbling' in a delay population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Mingshu

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the flip bifurcation and periodic doubling bifurcations of a discrete population model without delay influence is firstly studied and the phenomenon of Feigenbaum's cascade of periodic doublings is also observed. Secondly, we explored the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the delay population model (two-dimension discrete dynamical systems) and the unique stable closed invariant curve which bifurcates from the nontrivial fixed point. Finally, a computer-assisted study for the delay population model is also delved into. Our computer simulation shows that the introduction of delay effect in a nonlinear difference equation derived from the logistic map leads to much richer dynamic behavior, such as stable node → stable focus → an lower-dimensional closed invariant curve (quasi-periodic solution, limit cycle) or/and stable periodic solutions → chaotic attractor by cascading bubbles (the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling) and the sudden change between two different attractors, etc

  3. Solar cost reduction through technical improvements: the concepts of learning and experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krawiec, F.; Flaim, T.

    1979-10-01

    The concepts of learning and experience are reviewed and their usefulness for predicting the future costs of solar technologies are evaluated. The literature review indicated that the cost estimates for solar energy technologies are typically made assuming a fixed production process, characterized by standard capacity factors, overhead, and labor costs. The learning curve is suggested as a generalization of the costs of potential solar energy systems. The concept of experience is too ambiguous to be useful for cost estimation. There is no logical reason to believe that costs will decline purely as a function of cumulative production, and experience curves do not allow the analyst to identify logical sources of cost reduction directly. The procedures for using learning and aggregated cost curves to estimate the costs of solar technologies are outlined. It is recommended that production histories of analogous products and processes are analyzed and the learning and cost curves for these surrogates are estimated. These curves, if judged applicable, can be used to predict the cost reductions in manufacturing solar energy technologies.

  4. The role of experience curves for setting MEPS for appliances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siderius, Hans-Paul

    2013-01-01

    Minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) are an important policy instrument to raise the efficiency of products. In most schemes the concept of life cycle costs (LCC) is used to guide setting the MEPS levels. Although a large body of literature shows that product cost is decreasing with increasing cumulative production, the experience curve, this is currently not used for setting MEPS. This article shows how to integrate the concept of the experience curve into LCC calculations for setting MEPS in the European Union and applies this to household laundry driers, refrigerator-freezers and televisions. The results indicate that for driers and refrigerator-freezers at least twice the energy savings compared to the current approach can be achieved. These products also show that energy label classes can successfully be used for setting MEPS. For televisions an experience curve is provided, showing a learning rate of 29%. However, television prices do not show a relation with energy efficiency but are to a large extent determined by the time the product is placed on the market. This suggests to policy makers that for televisions and other products with a short (re)design and market cycle timing is more important than the MEPS levels itself. - Highlights: • We integrate experience curves into life cycle cost calculations for MEPS. • For driers and refrigerators this results in at least twice the energy savings. • For flat panel televisions an experience curve is provided

  5. Automatic machine-learning based identification of jogging periods from accelerometer measurements of adolescents under field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zdravevski, Eftim; Risteska Stojkoska, Biljana; Standl, Marie; Schulz, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Assessment of health benefits associated with physical activity depend on the activity duration, intensity and frequency, therefore their correct identification is very valuable and important in epidemiological and clinical studies. The aims of this study are: to develop an algorithm for automatic identification of intended jogging periods; and to assess whether the identification performance is improved when using two accelerometers at the hip and ankle, compared to when using only one at either position. The study used diarized jogging periods and the corresponding accelerometer data from thirty-nine, 15-year-old adolescents, collected under field conditions, as part of the GINIplus study. The data was obtained from two accelerometers placed at the hip and ankle. Automated feature engineering technique was performed to extract features from the raw accelerometer readings and to select a subset of the most significant features. Four machine learning algorithms were used for classification: Logistic regression, Support Vector Machines, Random Forest and Extremely Randomized Trees. Classification was performed using only data from the hip accelerometer, using only data from ankle accelerometer and using data from both accelerometers. The reported jogging periods were verified by visual inspection and used as golden standard. After the feature selection and tuning of the classification algorithms, all options provided a classification accuracy of at least 0.99, independent of the applied segmentation strategy with sliding windows of either 60s or 180s. The best matching ratio, i.e. the length of correctly identified jogging periods related to the total time including the missed ones, was up to 0.875. It could be additionally improved up to 0.967 by application of post-classification rules, which considered the duration of breaks and jogging periods. There was no obvious benefit of using two accelerometers, rather almost the same performance could be achieved from

  6. Automatic machine-learning based identification of jogging periods from accelerometer measurements of adolescents under field conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eftim Zdravevski

    Full Text Available Assessment of health benefits associated with physical activity depend on the activity duration, intensity and frequency, therefore their correct identification is very valuable and important in epidemiological and clinical studies. The aims of this study are: to develop an algorithm for automatic identification of intended jogging periods; and to assess whether the identification performance is improved when using two accelerometers at the hip and ankle, compared to when using only one at either position.The study used diarized jogging periods and the corresponding accelerometer data from thirty-nine, 15-year-old adolescents, collected under field conditions, as part of the GINIplus study. The data was obtained from two accelerometers placed at the hip and ankle. Automated feature engineering technique was performed to extract features from the raw accelerometer readings and to select a subset of the most significant features. Four machine learning algorithms were used for classification: Logistic regression, Support Vector Machines, Random Forest and Extremely Randomized Trees. Classification was performed using only data from the hip accelerometer, using only data from ankle accelerometer and using data from both accelerometers.The reported jogging periods were verified by visual inspection and used as golden standard. After the feature selection and tuning of the classification algorithms, all options provided a classification accuracy of at least 0.99, independent of the applied segmentation strategy with sliding windows of either 60s or 180s. The best matching ratio, i.e. the length of correctly identified jogging periods related to the total time including the missed ones, was up to 0.875. It could be additionally improved up to 0.967 by application of post-classification rules, which considered the duration of breaks and jogging periods. There was no obvious benefit of using two accelerometers, rather almost the same performance could be

  7. [Chinese neonatal birth weight curve for different gestational age].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Li; Zhang, Rong; Zhang, Shulian; Shi, Wenjing; Yan, Weili; Wang, Xiaoli; Lyu, Qin; Liu, Ling; Zhou, Qin; Qiu, Quanfang; Li, Xiaoying; He, Haiying; Wang, Jimei; Li, Ruichun; Lu, Jiarong; Yin, Zhaoqing; Su, Ping; Lin, Xinzhu; Guo, Fang; Zhang, Hui; Li, Shujun; Xin, Hua; Han, Yanqing; Wang, Hongyun; Chen, Dongmei; Li, Zhankui; Wang, Huiqin; Qiu, Yinping; Liu, Huayan; Yang, Jie; Yang, Xiaoli; Li, Mingxia; Li, Wenjing; Han, Shuping; Cao, Bei; Yi, Bin; Zhang, Yihui; Chen, Chao

    2015-02-01

    Since 1986, the reference of birth weight for gestational age has not been updated. The aim of this study was to set up Chinese neonatal network to investigate the current situation of birth weight in China, especially preterm birth weight, to develop the new reference for birth weight for gestational age and birth weight curve. A nationwide neonatology network was established in China. This survey was carried out in 63 hospitals of 23 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. We continuously collected the information of live births in participating hospitals during the study period of 2011-2014. Data describing birth weight and gestational age were collected prospectively. Newborn's birth weight was measured by electronic scale within 2 hours after birth when baby was undressed. The evaluation of gestational age was based on the combination of mother's last menstrual period, ultrasound in first trimester and gestational age estimation by gestational age scoring system. the growth curve was drawn by using LMSP method, which was conducted in GAMLSS 1.9-4 software package in R software 2.11.1. A total of 159 334 newborn infants were enrolled in this study. There were 84 447 male and 74 907 female. The mean birth weight was (3 232 ± 555) g, the mean birth weight of male newborn was (3 271 ± 576) g, the mean weight of female newborn was (3 188 ± 528) g. The test of the variables' distribution suggested that the distribution of gestational age and birth weight did not fit the normal distribution, the optimal distribution for them was BCT distribution. The Q-Q plot test and worm plot test suggested that this curve fitted the distribution optimally. The male and female neonatal birth weight curve was developed using the same method. Using GAMLSS method to establish nationwide neonatal birth weight curve, and the first time to update the birth weight reference in recent 28 years.

  8. Prototype-based active learning for lemmatization

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Daelemans, W

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available ] and Word Length [Long to Short] with the prototypical curves (e.g. Word Frequency [High to Low] and [Word Length Short to Long]). (With regard to the learning curves representing word frequency, refer to 4.1 for an explanation of why [High to Low... of language usage [15]. Secondly, in memory-based language processing [16] it has been argued, on the basis of com- parative machine learning experiments on natural lan- guage processing data, that exceptions are crucial for obtaining high generalization...

  9. PENILAIAN PROGRAM PRAKTIKUM TERHADAP PENINGKATAN KUALITI GURU PRA PERKHIDMATAN: ANALISIS BERDASARKAN LATENT GROWTH CURVE MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizah Sarkowi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Practicum is an important component in teacher education programs. This study identify the improvement in the quality of pre-service teachers for three phases practicum. Multi-point prospective panel study has been conducted on a 541 pre-service teachers at the Institute of Teacher Education. Teacher’s quality is measured based on the achievement of program learning outcomes. Based on matching last six digit identification card number for three studies series, 337 questionnaires were analyzed using a latent growth curve model using AMOS 18.0. Latent Analysis shows that the model achieve goodness of fit. There is a linear trend of improvement in the performance of the three phases of the practicum. This increase varies between individuals and the rate of growth depends on the level of achievement at practicum phase I. Studies indicate that the increase in the practicum period of teacher education policy should be continued.

  10. Stenting for curved lesions using a novel curved balloon: Preliminary experimental study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, Hideshi; Higaki, Takashi; Kobayashi, Toshiki; Fujii, Takanari; Fujimoto, Kazuto

    2015-08-01

    Stenting may be a compelling approach to dilating curved lesions in congenital heart diseases. However, balloon-expandable stents, which are commonly used for congenital heart diseases, are usually deployed in a straight orientation. In this study, we evaluated the effect of stenting with a novel curved balloon considered to provide better conformability to the curved-angled lesion. In vitro experiments: A Palmaz Genesis(®) stent (Johnson & Johnson, Cordis Co, Bridgewater, NJ, USA) mounted on the Goku(®) curve (Tokai Medical Co. Nagoya, Japan) was dilated in vitro to observe directly the behavior of the stent and balloon assembly during expansion. Animal experiment: A short Express(®) Vascular SD (Boston Scientific Co, Marlborough, MA, USA) stent and a long Express(®) Vascular LD stent (Boston Scientific) mounted on the curved balloon were deployed in the curved vessel of a pig to observe the effect of stenting in vivo. In vitro experiments: Although the stent was dilated in a curved fashion, stent and balloon assembly also rotated conjointly during expansion of its curved portion. In the primary stenting of the short stent, the stent was dilated with rotation of the curved portion. The excised stent conformed to the curved vessel. As the long stent could not be negotiated across the mid-portion with the balloon in expansion when it started curving, the mid-portion of the stent failed to expand fully. Furthermore, the balloon, which became entangled with the stent strut, could not be retrieved even after complete deflation. This novel curved balloon catheter might be used for implantation of the short stent in a curved lesion; however, it should not be used for primary stenting of the long stent. Post-dilation to conform the stent to the angled vessel would be safer than primary stenting irrespective of stent length. Copyright © 2014 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A new approach to the analysis of Mira light curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mennessier, M.O.; Barthes, D.; Mattei, J.A.

    1990-01-01

    Two different but complementary methods for predicting Mira luminosities are presented. One method is derived from a Fourier analysis, it requires performing deconvolution, and its results are not certain due to the inherent instability of deconvolution problems. The other method is a learning method utilizing artificial intelligence techniques where a light curve is presented as an ordered sequence of pseudocycles, and rules are learned by linking the characteristics of several consecutive pseudocycles to one characteristic of the future cycle. It is observed that agreement between these methods is obtainable when it is possible to eliminate similar false frequencies from the preliminary power spectrum and to improve the degree of confidence in the rules

  12. Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

    2014-12-01

    In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

  13. JUMPING THE CURVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Pellissier

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the notion ofjump ing the curve,following from Handy 's S-curve onto a new curve with new rules policies and procedures. . It claims that the curve does not generally lie in wait but has to be invented by leadership. The focus of this paper is the identification (mathematically and inferentially ofthat point in time, known as the cusp in catastrophe theory, when it is time to change - pro-actively, pre-actively or reactively. These three scenarios are addressed separately and discussed in terms ofthe relevance ofeach.

  14. Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves and their uncertainties for Ghaap plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.M. Tfwala

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Engineering infrastructures such as stormwater drains and bridges are commonly designed using the concept of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF curves, which assume that the occurrence of precipitation patterns and distributions are spatially similar within the drainage area and remain unchanged throughout the lifespan of the infrastructures (stationary. Based on the premise that climate change will alter the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation patterns, inaccuracy in the estimation of IDF curves may occur. As such, prior to developing IDF curves, it is crucial to analyse trends of annual precipitation maxima. The objective of this study was to estimate the precipitation intensities and their uncertainties (lower and upper limits for durations of 0.125, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 4, and 6 h and return periods of 2, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years in the Ghaap plateau, Northern Cape Province, South Africa using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution. The annual precipitation maxima were extracted from long-term (1918–2014 precipitation data for four meteorological stations (Postmasburg, Douglas, Kuruman and Groblershoop sourced from the South African Weather Services (SAWS. On average, the estimated extreme precipitation intensities for the plateau ranged from 4.2 mm/h for 6 h storm duration to 55.8 mm/h for 0.125 h at 2 years return period. At 100 year return period, the intensity ranged from 13.3 mm/h for 6 h duration to 175.5 mm/h for the duration of 0.125 h. The lower limit of uncertainty ranged from 11.7% at 2 years return period to 26% at 100 year return period, and from 12.8% to 58.4% for the upper limit for the respective return periods. This methodology can be integrated into policy formulation for the design of stormwater and flood management infrastructures in the Ghaap plateau, where mining is the main economic activity.

  15. Cooperative learning combined with short periods of lecturing: A good alternative in teaching biochemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Santander, Ana

    2008-01-01

    The informal activities of cooperative learning and short periods of lecturing has been combined and used in the university teaching of biochemistry as part of the first year course of Optics and Optometry in the academic years 2004-2005 and 2005-2006. The lessons were previously elaborated by the teacher and included all that is necessary to understand the topic (text, figures, graphics, diagrams, pictures, etc.). Additionally, a questionnaire was prepared for every chapter. All lessons contained three parts: objectives, approach and development, and the assessment of the topic. Team work, responsibility, and communication skills were some of the abilities developed with this new methodology. Students worked collaboratively in small groups of two or three following the teacher's instructions with short periods of lecturing that clarified misunderstood concepts. Homework was minimized. On comparing this combined methodology with the traditional one (only lecture), students were found to exhibit a higher satisfaction with the new method. They were more involved in the learning process and had a better attitude toward the subject. The use of this new methodology showed a significant increase in the mean score of the students' academic results. The rate of students who failed the subject was significantly inferior in comparison with those who failed in the previous years when only lecturing was applied. This combined methodology helped the teacher to observe the apprenticeship process of students better and to act as a facilitator in the process of building students' knowledge. Copyright © 2008 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  16. Alchemical and structural distribution based representation for universal quantum machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Felix A.; Christensen, Anders S.; Huang, Bing; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole

    2018-06-01

    We introduce a representation of any atom in any chemical environment for the automatized generation of universal kernel ridge regression-based quantum machine learning (QML) models of electronic properties, trained throughout chemical compound space. The representation is based on Gaussian distribution functions, scaled by power laws and explicitly accounting for structural as well as elemental degrees of freedom. The elemental components help us to lower the QML model's learning curve, and, through interpolation across the periodic table, even enable "alchemical extrapolation" to covalent bonding between elements not part of training. This point is demonstrated for the prediction of covalent binding in single, double, and triple bonds among main-group elements as well as for atomization energies in organic molecules. We present numerical evidence that resulting QML energy models, after training on a few thousand random training instances, reach chemical accuracy for out-of-sample compounds. Compound datasets studied include thousands of structurally and compositionally diverse organic molecules, non-covalently bonded protein side-chains, (H2O)40-clusters, and crystalline solids. Learning curves for QML models also indicate competitive predictive power for various other electronic ground state properties of organic molecules, calculated with hybrid density functional theory, including polarizability, heat-capacity, HOMO-LUMO eigenvalues and gap, zero point vibrational energy, dipole moment, and highest vibrational fundamental frequency.

  17. Dual Smarandache Curves of a Timelike Curve lying on Unit dual Lorentzian Sphere

    OpenAIRE

    Kahraman, Tanju; Hüseyin Ugurlu, Hasan

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we give Darboux approximation for dual Smarandache curves of time like curve on unit dual Lorentzian sphere. Firstly, we define the four types of dual Smarandache curves of a timelike curve lying on dual Lorentzian sphere.

  18. A specific implicit sequence learning deficit as an underlying cause of dyslexia? Investigating the role of attention in implicit learning tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staels, Eva; Van den Broeck, Wim

    2017-05-01

    Recently, a general implicit sequence learning deficit was proposed as an underlying cause of dyslexia. This new hypothesis was investigated in the present study by including a number of methodological improvements, for example, the inclusion of appropriate control conditions. The second goal of the study was to explore the role of attentional functioning in implicit and explicit learning tasks. In a 2 × 2 within-subjects design 4 tasks were administered in 30 dyslexic and 38 control children: an implicit and explicit serial reaction time (RT) task and an implicit and explicit contextual cueing task. Attentional functioning was also administered. The entire learning curves of all tasks were analyzed using latent growth curve modeling in order to compare performances between groups and to examine the role of attentional functioning on the learning curves. The amount of implicit learning was similar for both groups. However, the dyslexic group showed slower RTs throughout the entire task. This group difference reduced and became nonsignificant after controlling for attentional functioning. Both implicit learning tasks, but none of the explicit learning tasks, were significantly affected by attentional functioning. Dyslexic children do not suffer from a specific implicit sequence learning deficit. The slower RTs of the dyslexic children throughout the entire implicit sequence learning process are caused by their comorbid attention problems and overall slowness. A key finding of the present study is that, in contrast to what was assumed for a long time, implicit learning relies on attentional resources, perhaps even more than explicit learning does. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Operator learning effects in teleoperated rendezvous & docking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilde, M.; Harder, J.; Purschke, R.

    Teleoperation of spacecraft proximity operations and docking requires delicate timing and coordination of spacecraft maneuvers. Experience has shown that human operators show large performance fluctuations in these areas, which are a major factor to be addressed in operator training. In order to allow the quantification of the impact of these human fluctuations on control system performance and the human perception of this performance, a learning curve study was conducted with teleoperated final approach and docking scenarios. Over a period of ten experiment days, three test participants were tasked with repeatedly completing a set of three training scenarios. The scenarios were designed to contain different combinations of the major elements of any final approach and docking situation, and to feature an increasing difficulty level. The individual difficulty levels for the three operators furthermore differed in the level of operator support functions available in their human-machine interfaces. Operator performance in the test scenarios were evaluated in the fields approach success and precision, docking safety, and approach efficiency by a combination of recorded maneuver data and questionnaires. The results show that operator experience and the associated learning curves increase operator performance substantially, regardless of the support system used. The paper also shows that the fluctuations in operator performance and self-perception are substantial between as well as within experiment days, and must be reckoned with in teleoperation system design and mission planning.

  20. The relative kicking frequency of infants born full-term and preterm during learning and short-term and long-term memory periods of the mobile paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heathcock, Jill C; Bhat, Anjana N; Lobo, Michele A; Galloway, James C

    2005-01-01

    Infants born preterm differ in their spontaneous kicking, as well as their learning and memory abilities in the mobile paradigm, compared with infants born full-term. In the mobile paradigm, a supine infant's ankle is tethered to a mobile so that leg kicks cause a proportional amount of mobile movement. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative kicking frequency of the tethered (right) and nontethered (left) legs in these 2 groups of infants. Ten infants born full-term and 10 infants born preterm (infants participated in the study. The relative kicking frequencies of the tethered and nontethered legs were analyzed during learning and short-term and long-term memory periods of the mobile paradigm. Infants born full-term showed an increase in the relative kicking frequency of the tethered leg during the learning period and the short-term memory period but not for the long-term memory period. Infants born preterm did not show a change in kicking pattern for learning or memory periods, and consistently kicked both legs in relatively equal amounts. Infants born full-term adapted their baseline kicking frequencies in a task-specific manner to move the mobile and then retained this adaptation for the short-term memory period. In contrast, infants born preterm showed no adaptation, suggesting a lack of purposeful leg control. This lack of control may reflect a general decrease in the ability of infants born preterm to use their limb movements to interact with their environment. As such, the mobile paradigm may be clinically useful in the early assessment and intervention of infants born preterm and at risk for future impairment.

  1. Accuracy of progress ratios determined from experience curves: the case of photovoltaic technology development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074628526; Alsema, E.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073416258; Junginger, H.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/202130703; de Moor, H.H.C.; Schaeffer, G.J.

    2008-01-01

    Learning curves are extensively used in policy and scenario studies. Progress ratios (PRs) are derived from historical data and are used for forecasting cost development of many technologies, including photovoltaics (PV). Forecasts are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the PR. A PR usually is

  2. ECM using Edwards curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernstein, Daniel J.; Birkner, Peter; Lange, Tanja

    2013-01-01

    -arithmetic level are as follows: (1) use Edwards curves instead of Montgomery curves; (2) use extended Edwards coordinates; (3) use signed-sliding-window addition-subtraction chains; (4) batch primes to increase the window size; (5) choose curves with small parameters and base points; (6) choose curves with large...

  3. Theory of the development of curved barbs and their effects on feather morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feo, Teresa J; Simon, Emma; Prum, Richard O

    2016-08-01

    Feathers exhibit an extraordinary diversity of shapes, which are used by birds to accomplish a diverse set of functions. Pennaceous feathers have a double branched morphology that develops from a tube of epidermis, and variation in branch geometry determines feather shape. Feather development is both complex (i.e., a simple developmental modification can have multiple effects on mature feather shape), and redundant (i.e., different developmental modifications can create the same shape). Due to this, it is not readily apparent how different feather shapes develop. In many feathers, barbs are not straight, but instead curve in toward, or away, from the feather tip. Barb curvature can affect the shape of mature feathers but the development of curved barbs is unknown. Previous research has hypothesized that barb curvature could develop either during the helical growth of barb ridges in the tubular feather germ, or during barb angle expansion as the feather unfurls from the sheath. To better understand the development of curved barbs and their effects on mature feathers we present a theoretical model of curved barb development and test the model with empirical investigations of feathers. We find that curved barbs affect many aspects of feather morphology including vane width, barb length, and barb spacing. In real feathers, curved barbs can develop both during helical barb ridge growth and during barb angle expansion, with most of the observed curvature due to barb angle expansion. Our results demonstrate that barb angle expansion as a feather unfurls from the sheath is a complex and dynamic process that plays an important role in determining the shape and structure of mature feathers. Curved barbs create heterogeneity in barb geometry within the feather vane, which could have important implications for aerodynamic function and the development of within feather pigmentation patterns. J. Morphol. 277:995-1013, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley

  4. LONG-TERM LIGHT CURVE OF HIGHLY VARIABLE PROTOSTELLAR STAR GM CEP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Limin; Kroll, Peter; Henden, Arne A.

    2010-01-01

    We present data from the archival plates at Harvard College Observatory and Sonneberg Observatory showing the field of the solar-type pre-main-sequence star GM Cep. A total of 186 magnitudes of GM Cep have been measured on these archival plates, with 176 in blue sensitivity, six in visible, and four in red. We combine our data with data from the literature and from the American Association of Variable Star Observers to depict the long-term light curves of GM Cep in both B and V wavelengths. The light curves span from 1895 until now, with two densely sampled regions (1935-1945 in the B band, and 2006 until now in the V band). The long-term light curves do not show any fast rise behavior as predicted by an accretion mechanism. Both the light curves and the magnitude histograms confirm the conclusion that the light curves are dominated by dips (possibly from extinction) superposed on some quiescence state, instead of outbursts caused by accretion flares. Our result excludes the possibility of GM Cep being a FUor, EXor, or McNeil's Nebula-type star. Several special cases of T Tauri stars were checked, but none of these light curves were compatible with that of GM Cep. The lack of periodicity in the light curve excludes the possibility of GM Cep being a KH 15D system.

  5. About local calibration curve of the Black Sea during the period 18000 - 3000 calendar years BP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slavova, K.

    2002-01-01

    Understanding the youngest geological Black Sea history requires that the age of the tested samples be accurately determined. The comparison between 234 U/ 230 Th and 14 C ages obtained on the Holocene samples demonstrate that 234 U/ 230 Th ages are accurate because they are in agreement with the dendrochonological calibration. Beyond 9100 calendar year BP it is proved that 14 C ages are systematically younger than 234 U/ 230 Th ages with a maximum difference of about 3000 years reached at about 20000 calendar years. This calls for converting the conventional 14 C ages in calendar ages. The procedure is called calibration. A local calibration Black Sea curve in which features of the Black Sea as a basin to be included is required, videlicet: correction of conventional ages for 'reservoir effect' - 60 years for TOC (Total Organic Carbon), 460 years for TCC (Total Carbonate Carbon) and for 'detrital carbon input - 580 years for TOC, 260 years for TCC. Such local calibration curve is constructed and proved in the article by using and comparing data from different dating methods (carbon 14, 234 U/ 230 Th, dendrochronology)

  6. IMAGING STARSPOT EVOLUTION ON KEPLER TARGET KIC 5110407 USING LIGHT-CURVE INVERSION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roettenbacher, Rachael M.; Monnier, John D.; Harmon, Robert O.; Barclay, Thomas; Still, Martin

    2013-01-01

    The Kepler target KIC 5110407, a K-type star, shows strong quasi-periodic light curve fluctuations likely arising from the formation and decay of spots on the stellar surface rotating with a period of 3.4693 days. Using an established light-curve inversion algorithm, we study the evolution of the surface features based on Kepler space telescope light curves over a period of two years (with a gap of .25 years). At virtually all epochs, we detect at least one large spot group on the surface causing a 1%-10% flux modulation in the Kepler passband. By identifying and tracking spot groups over a range of inferred latitudes, we measured the surface differential rotation to be much smaller than that found for the Sun. We also searched for a correlation between the 17 stellar flares that occurred during our observations and the orientation of the dominant surface spot at the time of each flare. No statistically significant correlation was found except perhaps for the very brightest flares, suggesting that most flares are associated with regions devoid of spots or spots too small to be clearly discerned using our reconstruction technique. While we may see hints of long-term changes in the spot characteristics and flare statistics within our current data set, a longer baseline of observation will be needed to detect the existence of a magnetic cycle in KIC 5110407.

  7. Quasi-periodic dynamics in system with multilevel pulse modulated control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gol'tsov, Yu A.; Kizhuk, A. S.; Rubanov, V. G.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, the authors describe the transitions from the regular periodic mode to quasiperiodicity that can be observed in a multilevel pulse-width modulated control system for a high-power heating unit. The behavior of such system can be described by a set of two coupled non-autonomous differential equations with discontinuous right-hand sides. The authors reduce the investigation of this system to the studying of a two-dimensional piecewise-smooth map. The authors demonstrate how a closed invariant curve associated with quasiperiodic dynamics can arise from a stable periodic motion through a border-collision bifurcation. The paper also considers a variety of interesting nonlinear phenomena, including phase-locking modes, the coexistence of several stable closed invariant curves, embedded one into the other and with their basins of attraction separated by intervening repelling closed curves.

  8. Analyzing the Learning Path of US Shale Players by Using the Learning Curve Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Hyun Kim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The US shale exploration and production (E&P industry has grown since 2007 due to the development of new techniques such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. As a result, the share of shale gas in the US natural gas production is almost 50%, and the share of tight oil in the US crude oil production is almost 52%. Even though oil and gas prices decreased sharply in 2014, the production amounts of shale gas and tight oil increased between 2014 and 2015. We show that many players in the US shale E&P industry succeeded in decreasing their production costs to maintain their business activity and production. However, most of the companies in the US petroleum E&P industry incurred losses in 2015 and 2016. Furthermore, crude oil and natural gas prices could not rebound to their 2015 price levels. Therefore, many companies in the US petroleum E&P industry need to increase their productivity to overcome the low commodity prices situation. Hence, to test the change in their productivity and analyze their ability to survive in the petroleum industry, this study calculates the learning rate using the US shale E&P players’ annual report data from 2008 to 2016. The result of the calculation is that the long-term learning rate is 1.87% and the short-term learning rate is 3.16%. This indicates a change in the technological development trend.

  9. The training and learning process of transseptal puncture using a modified technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yan; Ding, Ligang; Chen, Wensheng; Guo, Jun; Bao, Jingru; Shi, Rui; Huang, Wen; Zhang, Shu; Wong, Tom

    2013-12-01

    As the transseptal (TS) puncture has become an integral part of many types of cardiac interventional procedures, its technique that was initial reported for measurement of left atrial pressure in 1950s, continue to evolve. Our laboratory adopted a modified technique which uses only coronary sinus catheter as the landmark to accomplishing TS punctures under fluoroscopy. The aim of this study is prospectively to evaluate the training and learning process for TS puncture guided by this modified technique. Guided by the training protocol, TS puncture was performed in 120 consecutive patients by three trainees without previous personal experience in TS catheterization and one experienced trainer as a controller. We analysed the following parameters: one puncture success rate, total procedure time, fluoroscopic time, and radiation dose. The learning curve was analysed using curve-fitting methodology. The first attempt at TS crossing was successful in 74 (82%), a second attempt was successful in 11 (12%), and 5 patients failed to puncture the interatrial septal finally. The average starting process time was 4.1 ± 0.8 min, and the estimated mean learning plateau was 1.2 ± 0.2 min. The estimated mean learning rate for process time was 25 ± 3 cases. Important aspects of learning curve can be estimated by fitting inverse curves for TS puncture. The study demonstrated that this technique was a simple, safe, economic, and effective approach for learning of TS puncture. Base on the statistical analysis, approximately 29 TS punctures will be needed for trainee to pass the steepest area of learning curve.

  10. Analysis on learning curves of end-use appliances for the establishment of price-sensitivity load model in competitive electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Sung Wook; Kim, Jung Hoon [Hongik University (Korea); Song, Kyung Bin [Keimyung University (Korea); Choi, Joon Young [Jeonju University (Korea)

    2001-07-01

    The change of the electricity charge from cost base to price base due to the introduction to the electricity market competition causes consumer to choose a variety of charge schemes and a portion of loads to be affected by this change. Besides, it is required the index that consolidate the price volatility experienced on the power exchange with gaming and strategic bidding by suppliers to increase profits. Therefore, in order to find a mathematical model of the sensitively-responding to-price loads, the price-sensitive load model is needed. And the development of state-of- the-art technologies affects the electricity price, so the diffusion of high-efficient end-uses and these price affect load patterns. This paper shows the analysis on learning curves algorithms which is used to investigate the correlation of the end-uses' price and load patterns. (author). 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  11. Learning of couplings for random asymmetric kinetic Ising models revisited: random correlation matrices and learning curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bachschmid-Romano, Ludovica; Opper, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    We study analytically the performance of a recently proposed algorithm for learning the couplings of a random asymmetric kinetic Ising model from finite length trajectories of the spin dynamics. Our analysis shows the importance of the nontrivial equal time correlations between spins induced by the dynamics for the speed of learning. These correlations become more important as the spin’s stochasticity is decreased. We also analyse the deviation of the estimation error (paper)

  12. Verbal learning changes in older adults across 18 months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimprich, Daniel; Rast, Philippe

    2009-07-01

    The major aim of this study was to investigate individual changes in verbal learning across a period of 18 months. Individual differences in verbal learning have largely been neglected in the last years and, even more so, individual differences in change in verbal learning. The sample for this study comes from the Zurich Longitudinal Study on Cognitive Aging (ZULU; Zimprich et al., 2008a) and comprised 336 older adults in the age range of 65-80 years at first measurement occasion. In order to address change in verbal learning we used a latent change model of structured latent growth curves to account for the non-linearity of the verbal learning data. The individual learning trajectories were captured by a hyperbolic function which yielded three psychologically distinct parameters: initial performance, learning rate, and asymptotic performance. We found that average performance increased with respect to initial performance, but not in learning rate or in asymptotic performance. Further, variances and covariances remained stable across both measurement occasions, indicating that the amount of individual differences in the three parameters remained stable, as did the relationships among them. Moreover, older adults differed reliably in their amount of change in initial performance and asymptotic performance. Eventually, changes in asymptotic performance and learning rate were strongly negatively correlated. It thus appears as if change in verbal learning in old age is a constrained process: an increase in total learning capacity implies that it takes longer to learn. Together, these results point to the significance of individual differences in change of verbal learning in the elderly.

  13. Evaluation of the learning curve for thulium laser enucleation of the prostate with the aid of a simulator tool but without tutoring: comparison of two surgeons with different levels of endoscopic experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saredi, Giovanni; Pirola, Giacomo Maria; Pacchetti, Andrea; Lovisolo, Jon Alexander; Borroni, Giacomo; Sembenini, Federico; Marconi, Alberto Mario

    2015-06-09

    The aim of this study was to determine the learning curve for thulium laser enucleation of the prostate (ThuLEP) for two surgeons with different levels of urological endoscopic experience. From June 2012 to August 2013, ThuLEP was performed on 100 patients in our institution. We present the results of a prospective evaluation during which we analyzed data related to the learning curves for two surgeons of different levels of experience. The prostatic adenoma volumes ranged from 30 to 130 mL (average 61.2 mL). Surgeons A and B performed 48 and 52 operations, respectively. Six months after surgery, all patients were evaluated with the International Prostate Symptom Score questionnaire, uroflowmetry, and prostate-specific antigen test. Introduced in 2010, ThuLEP consists of blunt enucleation of the prostatic apex and lobes using the sheath of the resectoscope. This maneuver allows clearer visualization of the enucleation plane and precise identification of the prostatic capsule. These conditions permit total resection of the prostatic adenoma and coagulation of small penetrating vessels, thereby reducing the laser emission time. Most of the complications in this series were encountered during morcellation, which in some cases was performed under poor vision because of venous bleeding due to surgical perforation of the capsule during enucleation. Based on this analysis, we concluded that it is feasible for laser-naive urologists with endoscopic experience to learn to perform ThuLEP without tutoring. Those statements still require further validation in larger multicentric study cohort by several surgeon. The main novelty during the learning process was the use of a simulator that faithfully reproduced all of the surgical steps in prostates of various shapes and volumes.

  14. A Search for Quasi-periodic Oscillations in the Blazar 1ES 1959+650

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xiao-Pan; Luo, Yu-Hui; Yang, Hai-Yan; Cai, Yan; Yang, Hai-Tao [Department of Physics, Zhaotong University, Zhaotong, 657000 (China); Yang, Cheng, E-mail: lxpzrc@163.com [College of Photoelectron and Communication Engineering, Yunnan Open University, Kunming, 650223 (China)

    2017-09-20

    We have searched quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in the 15 GHz light curve of the BL Lac object 1ES 1959+650 monitored by the Owens Valley Radio Observatory 40 m telescope during the period from 2008 January to 2016 February, using the Lomb–Scargle Periodogram, power spectral density (PSD), discrete autocorrelation function, and phase dispersion minimization (PDM) techniques. The red noise background has been established via the PSD method, and no QPO can be derived at the 3 σ confidence level accounting for the impact of the red noise variability. We conclude that the light curve of 1ES 1959+650 can be explained by a stochastic red noise process that contributes greatly to the total observed variability amplitude, dominates the power spectrum, causes spurious bumps and wiggles in the autocorrelation function and can result in the variance of the folded light curve decreasing toward lower temporal frequencies when few-cycle, sinusoid-like patterns are present. Moreover, many early supposed periodicity claims for blazar light curves need to be reevaluated assuming red noise.

  15. From Experiment to Theory: What Can We Learn from Growth Curves?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kareva, Irina; Karev, Georgy

    2018-01-01

    Finding an appropriate functional form to describe population growth based on key properties of a described system allows making justified predictions about future population development. This information can be of vital importance in all areas of research, ranging from cell growth to global demography. Here, we use this connection between theory and observation to pose the following question: what can we infer about intrinsic properties of a population (i.e., degree of heterogeneity, or dependence on external resources) based on which growth function best fits its growth dynamics? We investigate several nonstandard classes of multi-phase growth curves that capture different stages of population growth; these models include hyperbolic-exponential, exponential-linear, exponential-linear-saturation growth patterns. The constructed models account explicitly for the process of natural selection within inhomogeneous populations. Based on the underlying hypotheses for each of the models, we identify whether the population that it best fits by a particular curve is more likely to be homogeneous or heterogeneous, grow in a density-dependent or frequency-dependent manner, and whether it depends on external resources during any or all stages of its development. We apply these predictions to cancer cell growth and demographic data obtained from the literature. Our theory, if confirmed, can provide an additional biomarker and a predictive tool to complement experimental research.

  16. Machine learning algorithms for mode-of-action classification in toxicity assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yile; Wong, Yau Shu; Deng, Jian; Anton, Cristina; Gabos, Stephan; Zhang, Weiping; Huang, Dorothy Yu; Jin, Can

    2016-01-01

    Real Time Cell Analysis (RTCA) technology is used to monitor cellular changes continuously over the entire exposure period. Combining with different testing concentrations, the profiles have potential in probing the mode of action (MOA) of the testing substances. In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for MOA assessment. Computational tools based on artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) are developed to analyze the time-concentration response curves (TCRCs) of human cell lines responding to tested chemicals. The techniques are capable of learning data from given TCRCs with known MOA information and then making MOA classification for the unknown toxicity. A novel data processing step based on wavelet transform is introduced to extract important features from the original TCRC data. From the dose response curves, time interval leading to higher classification success rate can be selected as input to enhance the performance of the machine learning algorithm. This is particularly helpful when handling cases with limited and imbalanced data. The validation of the proposed method is demonstrated by the supervised learning algorithm applied to the exposure data of HepG2 cell line to 63 chemicals with 11 concentrations in each test case. Classification success rate in the range of 85 to 95 % are obtained using SVM for MOA classification with two clusters to cases up to four clusters. Wavelet transform is capable of capturing important features of TCRCs for MOA classification. The proposed SVM scheme incorporated with wavelet transform has a great potential for large scale MOA classification and high-through output chemical screening.

  17. An Approach of Estimating Individual Growth Curves for Young Thoroughbred Horses Based on Their Birthdays

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONODA, Tomoaki; YAMAMOTO, Ryuta; SAWAMURA, Kyohei; MURASE, Harutaka; NAMBO, Yasuo; INOUE, Yoshinobu; MATSUI, Akira; MIYAKE, Takeshi; HIRAI, Nobuhiro

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT We propose an approach of estimating individual growth curves based on the birthday information of Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. The compensatory growth patterns appear during only the winter and spring seasons in the life of growing horses, and the meeting point between winter and spring depends on the birthday of each horse. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Based on the equations, a parameter denoting the birthday information was added for the modeling of the individual growth curves for each horse by shifting the meeting points in the compensatory growth periods. A total of 5,594 and 5,680 body weight and age measurements of Thoroughbred colts and fillies, respectively, and 3,770 withers height and age measurements of both sexes were used in the analyses. The results of predicted error difference and Akaike Information Criterion showed that the individual growth curves using birthday information better fit to the body weight and withers height data than not using them. The individual growth curve for each horse would be a useful tool for the feeding managements of young Japanese Thoroughbreds in compensatory growth periods. PMID:25013356

  18. Incorporating Experience Curves in Appliance Standards Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garbesi, Karina; Chan, Peter; Greenblatt, Jeffery; Kantner, Colleen; Lekov, Alex; Meyers, Stephen; Rosenquist, Gregory; Buskirk, Robert Van; Yang, Hung-Chia; Desroches, Louis-Benoit

    2011-10-31

    The technical analyses in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have typically assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. There is, however, considerable evidence that this assumption does not reflect real market prices. Costs and prices generally fall in relation to cumulative production, a phenomenon known as experience and modeled by a fairly robust empirical experience curve. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and shipment data obtained as part of the standards analysis process, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners, clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These allow us to develop more representative appliance price projections than the assumption-based approach of constant prices. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards for these products. The impact on the national modeling can be significant, often increasing the net present value of potential standard levels in the analysis. In some cases a previously cost-negative potential standard level demonstrates a benefit when incorporating experience. These results imply that past energy conservation standards analyses may have undervalued the economic benefits of potential standard levels.

  19. Using machine learning to parse breast pathology reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yala, Adam; Barzilay, Regina; Salama, Laura; Griffin, Molly; Sollender, Grace; Bardia, Aditya; Lehman, Constance; Buckley, Julliette M; Coopey, Suzanne B; Polubriaginof, Fernanda; Garber, Judy E; Smith, Barbara L; Gadd, Michele A; Specht, Michelle C; Gudewicz, Thomas M; Guidi, Anthony J; Taghian, Alphonse; Hughes, Kevin S

    2017-01-01

    Extracting information from electronic medical record is a time-consuming and expensive process when done manually. Rule-based and machine learning techniques are two approaches to solving this problem. In this study, we trained a machine learning model on pathology reports to extract pertinent tumor characteristics, which enabled us to create a large database of attribute searchable pathology reports. This database can be used to identify cohorts of patients with characteristics of interest. We collected a total of 91,505 breast pathology reports from three Partners hospitals: Massachusetts General Hospital, Brigham and Women's Hospital, and Newton-Wellesley Hospital, covering the period from 1978 to 2016. We trained our system with annotations from two datasets, consisting of 6295 and 10,841 manually annotated reports. The system extracts 20 separate categories of information, including atypia types and various tumor characteristics such as receptors. We also report a learning curve analysis to show how much annotation our model needs to perform reasonably. The model accuracy was tested on 500 reports that did not overlap with the training set. The model achieved accuracy of 90% for correctly parsing all carcinoma and atypia categories for a given patient. The average accuracy for individual categories was 97%. Using this classifier, we created a database of 91,505 parsed pathology reports. Our learning curve analysis shows that the model can achieve reasonable results even when trained on a few annotations. We developed a user-friendly interface to the database that allows physicians to easily identify patients with target characteristics and export the matching cohort. This model has the potential to reduce the effort required for analyzing large amounts of data from medical records, and to minimize the cost and time required to glean scientific insight from these data.

  20. Bootstrap rolling window estimation approach to analysis of the Environment Kuznets Curve hypothesis: evidence from the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslan, Alper; Destek, Mehmet Akif; Okumus, Ilyas

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to examine the validity of inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve by investigating the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution for the period from 1966 to 2013 in the USA. Previous studies based on the assumption of parameter stability and obtained parameters do not change over the full sample. This study uses bootstrap rolling window estimation method to detect the possible changes in causal relations and also obtain the parameters for sub-sample periods. The results show that the parameter of economic growth has increasing trend in 1982-1996 sub-sample periods, and it has decreasing trend in 1996-2013 sub-sample periods. Therefore, the existence of inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve is confirmed in the USA.

  1. Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afouxenidis, D; Polymeris, G S; Tsirliganis, N C; Kitis, G

    2012-05-01

    This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the GLOw Curve ANalysis INtercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters.

  2. Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afouxenidis, D.; Polymeris, G. S.; Tsirliganis, N. C.; Kitis, G.

    2012-01-01

    This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the Glow Curve Analysis Intercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters. (authors)

  3. Evaluation of passive avoidance learning and spatial memory in rats exposed to low levels of lead during specific periods of early brain development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao Barkur, Rajashekar; Bairy, Laxminarayana K

    2015-01-01

    Widespread use of heavy metal lead (Pb) for various commercial purposes has resulted in the environmental contamination caused by this metal. The studies have shown a definite relationship between low level lead exposure during early brain development and deficit in children's cognitive functions. This study investigated the passive avoidance learning and spatial learning in male rat pups exposed to lead through their mothers during specific periods of early brain development. Experimental male rats were divided into 5 groups: i) the normal control group (NC) (N = 12) consisted of rat offspring born to mothers who were given normal drinking water throughout gestation and lactation, ii) the pre-gestation lead exposed group (PG) (N = 12) consisted of rat offspring, mothers of these rats had been exposed to 0.2% lead acetate in the drinking water for 1 month before conception, iii) the gestation lead exposed group (G) (N = 12) contained rat offspring born to mothers who had been exposed to 0.2% lead acetate in the drinking water throughout gestation, iv) the lactation lead exposed group (L) (N = 12) had rat offspring, mothers of these rats exposed to 0.2% lead acetate in the drinking water throughout lactation and v) the gestation and lactation lead exposed group (GL) (N = 12) contained rat offspring, mothers of these rats were exposed to 0.2% lead acetate throughout gestation and lactation. The study found deficit in passive avoidance learning in the G, L and GL groups of rats. Impairment in spatial learning was found in the PG, G, L and GL groups of rats. Interestingly, the study found that gestation period only and lactation period only lead exposure was sufficient to cause deficit in learning and memory in rats. The extent of memory impairment in the L group of rats was comparable with the GL group of rats. So it can be said that postnatal period of brain development is more sensitive to neurotoxicity compared to prenatal exposure. This work is available in Open

  4. A Comparative Study of Electric Load Curve Changes in an Urban Low-Voltage Substation in Spain during the Economic Crisis (2008–2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara-Santillán, Pedro M.; Mendoza-Villena, Montserrat; Fernández-Jiménez, L. Alfredo; Mañana-Canteli, Mario

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative study of the electricity consumption (EC) in an urban low-voltage substation before and during the economic crisis (2008–2013). This low-voltage substation supplies electric power to near 400 users. The EC was measured for an 11-year period (2002–2012) with a sampling time of 1 minute. The study described in the paper consists of detecting the changes produced in the load curves of this substation along the time due to changes in the behaviour of consumers. The EC was compared using representative curves per time period (precrisis and crisis). These representative curves were obtained after a computational process, which was based on a search for days with similar curves to the curve of a determined (base) date. This similitude was assessed by the proximity on the calendar, day of the week, daylight time, and outdoor temperature. The last selection parameter was the error between the nearest neighbour curves and the base date curve. The obtained representative curves were linearized to determine changes in their structure (maximum and minimum consumption values, duration of the daily time slot, etc.). The results primarily indicate an increase in the EC in the night slot during the summer months in the crisis period. PMID:24895677

  5. A Comparative Study of Electric Load Curve Changes in an Urban Low-Voltage Substation in Spain during the Economic Crisis (2008–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro M. Lara-Santillán

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comparative study of the electricity consumption (EC in an urban low-voltage substation before and during the economic crisis (2008–2013. This low-voltage substation supplies electric power to near 400 users. The EC was measured for an 11-year period (2002–2012 with a sampling time of 1 minute. The study described in the paper consists of detecting the changes produced in the load curves of this substation along the time due to changes in the behaviour of consumers. The EC was compared using representative curves per time period (precrisis and crisis. These representative curves were obtained after a computational process, which was based on a search for days with similar curves to the curve of a determined (base date. This similitude was assessed by the proximity on the calendar, day of the week, daylight time, and outdoor temperature. The last selection parameter was the error between the nearest neighbour curves and the base date curve. The obtained representative curves were linearized to determine changes in their structure (maximum and minimum consumption values, duration of the daily time slot, etc.. The results primarily indicate an increase in the EC in the night slot during the summer months in the crisis period.

  6. Periodic Properties and Inquiry: Student Mental Models Observed during a Periodic Table Puzzle Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Kathleen G.; Long, George R.; Briggs, Michael W.

    2012-01-01

    The mental models of both novice and advanced chemistry students were observed while the students performed a periodic table activity. The mental model framework seems to be an effective way of analyzing student behavior during learning activities. The analysis suggests that students do not recognize periodic trends through the examination of…

  7. Light Curve Variations of AR Lacertae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Il-Seong Nha

    1991-12-01

    Full Text Available Sixteen unitary Light curves of AR Lac in B and V are made at Yonsei University Observatory in the period of 1980-1988. Some overview findings of light variations are made. (1 The light variations outside eclipse follow none of the wave migration patterns reported by previous investigators. (2 Complicated shapes outside eclipse are apparently much reduced in the light curves of 1983-1984. This suggests that, in the future, AR Lac has a chance to attain a normal state with mo complicated interactions. (3 The depths of the primary and the secondary mid-eclipses are changing year-to-year. (4 The K0 star, the larger component, has brightened by 0.m14 V, while the G2 star has shown a fluctuation of about 0.m05 in V. (5 The B-V values at primary mid-eclipse have no correlation with the depth variations. (6 Independently of the increase of maximum brightness, the B-V colors in the non-eclipsed phases changed slightly over the years.

  8. EVIDENCE FOR PERIODICITY IN 43 YEAR-LONG MONITORING OF NGC 5548

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bon, E.; Bon, N.; Jovanović, P.; Popović, L. Č.; Stalevski, M. [Astronomical Observatory, Volgina 7, 11060 Belgrade (Serbia); Zucker, S. [Department of Geosciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 6997801 (Israel); Netzer, H. [School of Physics and Astronomy and the Wise Observatory, The Raymond and Beverly Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 6997801 (Israel); Marziani, P. [INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Padova, Padova (Italy); Shapovalova, A. I.; Burenkov, A. N. [Special Astrophysical Observatory of the Russian AS, Nizhnij Arkhyz, Karachaevo-Cherkesia 369167 (Russian Federation); Komossa, S.; Britzen, S. [Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie, Auf dem Hügel 69, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Gaskell, C. M. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California at Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Chavushyan, V. H.; Valdés, J. R. [Instituto Nacional de Astrofsica, Óptica y Electrónica, Apartado Postal 51, CP 72000, Puebla, Pue, Mexico (Mexico); Sergeev, S. [Crimean Astrophysical Observatory, P/O Nauchny, Republic of Crimea 298409 (Russian Federation); Mura, G. La [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “G. Galilei,” Università degli Studi di Padova, Vicolo dell’Osservatorio 3, I-35122—Padova (Italy)

    2016-08-01

    We present an analysis of 43 years (1972 to 2015) of spectroscopic observations of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548. This includes 12 years of new unpublished observations (2003 to 2015). We compiled about 1600 H β spectra and analyzed the long-term spectral variations of the 5100 Å continuum and the H β line. Our analysis is based on standard procedures, including the Lomb–Scargle method, which is known to be rather limited to such heterogeneous data sets, and a new method developed specifically for this project that is more robust and reveals a ∼5700 day periodicity in the continuum light curve, the H β light curve, and the radial velocity curve of the red wing of the H β line. The data are consistent with orbital motion inside the broad emission line region of the source. We discuss several possible mechanisms that can explain this periodicity, including orbiting dusty and dust-free clouds, a binary black hole system, tidal disruption events, and the effect of an orbiting star periodically passing through an accretion disk.

  9. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND AIR POLLUTION IN THECZECHREPUBLIC: DECOUPLING CURVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Šauer

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The decoupling curve, together with the Environmental Kuznets Curve, has beenrecognized as one of the important indicators showing relations betweeneconomic growth and environmental degradation/pollution. Many boththeoreticaland empirical studies have been published on it. Our paper brings models whichinvestigate relations between the economic growth per capita and selectedindicators of air pollution in theCzechRepublic. The analysis tried to go beforethe year 1990, despite the difficulties when dealing with different macroeconomicindicators published during the socialist period and those introduced after thetransition to a market economy. The results might be somehow surprising forthose dealing only with data generated after the year 1990: it is possible todiscover the turning points for some of the airborne pollutants already in the1980s.

  10. Learning curves of theta/beta neurofeedback in children with ADHD

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, T.W.P.; Bink, M.; Weeda, W.D.; Gelade, K.N.; Van, Mourik R.; Maras, A.; Oosterlaan, J.

    2017-01-01

    Neurofeedback is widely applied as non-pharmacological intervention aimed at reducing symptoms of ADHD, even though efficacy has not been unequivocally established. Neuronal changes during the neurofeedback intervention that resemble learning can provide crucial evidence for the feasibility and

  11. Availability of periodically tested systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Signoret, J.P.

    1979-01-01

    There is at the present time a need in accurate models to asess the availability of periodically tested stand-by systems. This paper shows how to improve the well known 'saw-tooth curve' model in order to take into account various reliability parameters. A model is developed to assess the pointwise and the mean availabilities of periodically tested stand-by systems. Exact and approxination formulae are given. In addition, the model developed herein leads to optimize the test interval in order to minimize the mean unavailability. A safety diesel in a nuclear power plant is given as an example

  12. Approximation by planar elastic curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, David; Gravesen, Jens; Nørbjerg, Toke Bjerge

    2016-01-01

    We give an algorithm for approximating a given plane curve segment by a planar elastic curve. The method depends on an analytic representation of the space of elastic curve segments, together with a geometric method for obtaining a good initial guess for the approximating curve. A gradient......-driven optimization is then used to find the approximating elastic curve....

  13. Quantification of Operational Learning in Minimal Invasive Extracorporeal Circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anastasiadis, Kyriakos; Antonitsis, Polychronis; Asteriou, Christos; Argiriadou, Helena; Deliopoulos, Apostolos; Konstantinou, Dimitrios; Grosomanidis, Vassilios; Tossios, Paschalis

    2017-07-01

    Minimal invasive extracorporeal circulation (MiECC) has initiated important new efforts within science and technology towards a more physiologic perfusion. In this study, we aim to investigate the learning curve of our center regarding MiECC. We studied a series of 150 consecutive patients who underwent elective coronary artery bypass grafting by the same surgical team during the initial phase of MiECC application. Patients were randomly assigned into two groups. Group A (n = 75) included patients operated on MiECC, while group B (n = 75) included patients operated with conventional cardiopulmonary bypass (cCPB). The primary end-point of the study was to identify whether there is a learning curve when operating on MiECC. The following parameters were unrelated with increasing experience, even though the results favored MiECC use: reduced CPB duration (102.9 ± 25 vs. 122.2 ± 33 min, P learning applied to postoperative hematocrit and hemoglobin levels (R 2  = 0.098, P = 0.006). We identified that advantages of MiECC technology in terms of reduced hemodilution and improved end-organ protection and clinical outcome are evident from the first patient. Optimal results are obtained with 50 cases; this refers mainly to significant reduction in the need for intraoperative blood transfusion. Teamwork from surgeons, anesthesiologists, and perfusionists is of paramount importance in order to maximize the clinical benefits from this technology. © 2016 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. The Value of Hydrograph Partitioning Curves for Calibrating Hydrological Models in Glacierized Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhihua; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Gafurov, Abror; Kalashnikova, Olga; Omorova, Elvira; Merz, Bruno

    2018-03-01

    This study refines the method for calibrating a glacio-hydrological model based on Hydrograph Partitioning Curves (HPCs), and evaluates its value in comparison to multidata set optimization approaches which use glacier mass balance, satellite snow cover images, and discharge. The HPCs are extracted from the observed flow hydrograph using catchment precipitation and temperature gradients. They indicate the periods when the various runoff processes, such as glacier melt or snow melt, dominate the basin hydrograph. The annual cumulative curve of the difference between average daily temperature and melt threshold temperature over the basin, as well as the annual cumulative curve of average daily snowfall on the glacierized areas are used to identify the starting and end dates of snow and glacier ablation periods. Model parameters characterizing different runoff processes are calibrated on different HPCs in a stepwise and iterative way. Results show that the HPC-based method (1) delivers model-internal consistency comparably to the tri-data set calibration method; (2) improves the stability of calibrated parameter values across various calibration periods; and (3) estimates the contributions of runoff components similarly to the tri-data set calibration method. Our findings indicate the potential of the HPC-based approach as an alternative for hydrological model calibration in glacierized basins where other calibration data sets than discharge are often not available or very costly to obtain.

  15. Learn ggplot2 using Shiny App

    CERN Document Server

    Moon, Keon-Woong

    2016-01-01

    This book and app is for practitioners, professionals, researchers, and students who want to learn how to make a plot within the R environment using ggplot2, step-by-step without coding. In widespread use in the statistical communities, R is a free software language and environment for statistical programming and graphics. Many users find R to have a steep learning curve but to be extremely useful once overcome. ggplot2 is an extremely popular package tailored for producing graphics within R but which requires coding and has a steep learning curve itself, and Shiny is an open source R package that provides a web framework for building web applications using R without requiring HTML, CSS, or JavaScript. This manual—"integrating" R, ggplot2, and Shiny—introduces a new Shiny app, Learn ggplot2, that allows users to make plots easily without coding. With the Learn ggplot2 Shiny app, users can make plots using ggplot2 without having to code each step, reducing typos and error messages and allowing users to bec...

  16. Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

    2017-12-01

    We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Technological learning in bioenergy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Junginger, Martin; Visser, Erika de; Hjort-Gregersen, Kurt; Koornneef, Joris; Raven, Rob; Faaij, Andre; Turkenburg, Wim

    2006-01-01

    The main goal of this article is to determine whether cost reductions in different bioenergy systems can be quantified using the experience curve approach, and how specific issues (arising from the complexity of biomass energy systems) can be addressed. This is pursued by case studies on biofuelled combined heat and power (CHP) plants in Sweden, global development of fluidized bed boilers and Danish biogas plants. As secondary goal, the aim is to identify learning mechanisms behind technology development and cost reduction for the biomass energy systems investigated. The case studies reveal large difficulties to devise empirical experience curves for investment costs of biomass-fuelled power plants. To some extent, this is due to lack of (detailed) data. The main reason, however, are varying plant costs due to differences in scale, fuel type, plant layout, region etc. For fluidized bed boiler plants built on a global level, progress ratios (PRs) for the price of entire plants lies approximately between 90-93% (which is typical for large plant-like technologies). The costs for the boiler section alone was found to decline much faster. The experience curve approach delivers better results, when the production costs of the final energy carrier are analyzed. Electricity from biofuelled CHP-plants yields PRs of 91-92%, i.e. an 8-9% reduction of electricity production costs with each cumulative doubling of electricity production. The experience curve for biogas production displays a PR of 85% from 1984 to the beginning of 1990, and then levels to approximately 100% until 2002. For technologies developed on a local level (e.g. biogas plants), learning-by-using and learning-by-interacting are important learning mechanism, while for CHP plants utilizing fluidized bed boilers, upscaling is probably one of the main mechanisms behind cost reductions

  18. Bragg Curve Spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruhn, C.R.

    1981-05-01

    An alternative utilization is presented for the gaseous ionization chamber in the detection of energetic heavy ions, which is called Bragg Curve Spectroscopy (BCS). Conceptually, BCS involves using the maximum data available from the Bragg curve of the stopping heavy ion (HI) for purposes of identifying the particle and measuring its energy. A detector has been designed that measures the Bragg curve with high precision. From the Bragg curve the range from the length of the track, the total energy from the integral of the specific ionization over the track, the dE/dx from the specific ionization at the beginning of the track, and the Bragg peak from the maximum of the specific ionization of the HI are determined. This last signal measures the atomic number, Z, of the HI unambiguously

  19. From the curve of the snake, and the scene of the crocodile: musings on learning and losing space, place and body

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Gannon

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Where else can educational research begin and end, if not with the body of the researcher, if not with the particular material/ corporeal/ affective assemblages that this body is and has been part of? This paper traces the mutual constitution of bodies, identities and landscapes through memory as the body of this educator travels through multiple scenes of geo-spatial-temporal movement, and down the east coast of Australia. This movement parallels the movement from being a school teacher to becoming an academic. Throughout the paper landscape is foregrounded, and the body in landscape is evoked through poetic and literary modes of writing around the themes of learning and losing. The body in landscape is not merely the body of the writer. Other bodies in the landscape include ‘the curve of the snake’ - the row of protective hills that were said to protect her tropical home from cyclones – and the ‘scene of the crocodile’ – the rock that hung over the valley she passed on her way to school that she had learned of from Indigenous teachers. The political and ethical consequences of memory work, of body and place writing, and of genres of writing in educational research, are also considered. The paper argues for an embodied and reflexive literacy of place that incorporates multiple modes of knowing, being and writing.

  20. Learning neuroendoscopy with an exoscope system (video telescopic operating monitor): Early clinical results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parihar, Vijay; Yadav, Y R; Kher, Yatin; Ratre, Shailendra; Sethi, Ashish; Sharma, Dhananjaya

    2016-01-01

    Steep learning curve is found initially in pure endoscopic procedures. Video telescopic operating monitor (VITOM) is an advance in rigid-lens telescope systems provides an alternative method for learning basics of neuroendoscopy with the help of the familiar principle of microneurosurgery. The aim was to evaluate the clinical utility of VITOM as a learning tool for neuroendoscopy. Video telescopic operating monitor was used 39 cranial and spinal procedures and its utility as a tool for minimally invasive neurosurgery and neuroendoscopy for initial learning curve was studied. Video telescopic operating monitor was used in 25 cranial and 14 spinal procedures. Image quality is comparable to endoscope and microscope. Surgeons comfort improved with VITOM. Frequent repositioning of scope holder and lack of stereopsis is initial limiting factor was compensated for with repeated procedures. Video telescopic operating monitor is found useful to reduce initial learning curve of neuroendoscopy.

  1. The Bell Curve: An Essay Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John C. Culbertson

    1995-02-01

    Full Text Available Occasionally a book out of academia will break from scholarly circles and enter into the mainstream market. On even rarer occasions, it will gain considerable notoriety before its initial publication. Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray's The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life is such a book. Currently, it has entered the New York Times best- sellers list and appeared in most academic and mainstream periodical book reviews. Direct publicity for the book has also been strong. Although Herrnstein died September 24 of the past year, Murray has appeared on many popular television and radio talk shows.

  2. The new courses of ethanol production in Brazil: an analysis from learning curves; Os novos rumos da producao de alcool combustivel no Brasil: uma analise a partir de curvas de aprendizagem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, Junior, Amaro Olimpio [Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil); Pereira, Andre Santos [Centre de Recherche sur Environement et Developement (CIRED), Paris (France); Mendonca, Marco Aurelio [Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA), Brasilia, DF (Brazil); Costa, Ricardo Cunha da [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (PPE/COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao do Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia. Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Planejamento Energetico

    2008-07-01

    PROALCOOL is known internationally as the most successful biofuel promotion program. Prior analysis of the effectiveness of such a program is fundamental to formulation of public policy, not only in the area of energy, but in all sectors of the economy. The article applies learning curve methodology to evaluate the ethanol market in Brazil in order to give an idea about the effort, in terms of investments, required for its advancement. (author)

  3. A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubin, Edward S.; Azevedo, Inês M.L.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Yeh, Sonia

    2015-01-01

    A variety of mathematical models have been proposed to characterize and quantify the dependency of electricity supply technology costs on various drivers of technological change. The most prevalent model form, called a learning curve, or experience curve, is a log-linear equation relating the unit cost of a technology to its cumulative installed capacity or electricity generated. This one-factor model is also the most common method used to represent endogenous technical change in large-scale energy-economic models that inform energy planning and policy analysis. A characteristic parameter is the “learning rate,” defined as the fractional reduction in cost for each doubling of cumulative production or capacity. In this paper, a literature review of the learning rates reported for 11 power generation technologies employing an array of fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewable energy sources is presented. The review also includes multi-factor models proposed for some energy technologies, especially two-factor models relating cost to cumulative expenditures for research and development (R&D) as well as the cumulative installed capacity or electricity production of a technology. For all technologies studied, we found substantial variability (as much as an order of magnitude) in reported learning rates across different studies. Such variability is not readily explained by systematic differences in the time intervals, geographic regions, choice of independent variable, or other parameters of each study. This uncertainty in learning rates, together with other limitations of current learning curve formulations, suggests the need for much more careful and systematic examination of the influence of how different factors and assumptions affect policy-relevant outcomes related to the future choice and cost of electricity supply and other energy technologies. - Highlights: • We review models explaining the cost of 11 electricity supply technologies. • The most prevalent model

  4. Contractibility of curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janusz Charatonik

    1991-11-01

    Full Text Available Results concerning contractibility of curves (equivalently: of dendroids are collected and discussed in the paper. Interrelations tetween various conditions which are either sufficient or necessary for a curve to be contractible are studied.

  5. New Light Curves and Analysis of the Overcontact Binaries PP Lac and DK Sge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, S. J.; Hargis, J. R.; Bradstreet, D. H.

    2004-12-01

    As a by-product of the ongoing work with the Catalog and AtLas of Eclipsing Binaries database (CALEB; Bradstreet et al. 2004), several hundred eclipsing binary systems have been identified that have either unpublished or poor quality light curves. We present new V & Rc light curves for the overcontact systems PP Lac and DK Sge, both chosen because their deep eclipses (peak-to-peak amplitudes of nearly 0.7 mag) help constrain the light curve modelling. Data were obtained using the 41-cm telescope at the Eastern University Observatory equipped with an SBIG ST-10XME CCD. PP Lac (P= 0.40116 d) is a W-type contact binary with only one previously published light curve (Dumont & Maraziti 1990), but the data are sparse and almost non-existent at primary eclipse. Modelling of these data gave varying results; the published mass ratios differ by nearly 0.3. Our data confirms the noted differing eclipse depths but we find the primary eclipse to be total. We present a new light curve solution using Binary Maker 3 (Bradstreet & Steelman 2002) and Wilson-Devinney, finding the mass ratio to be well-constrained by the duration of total eclipse. A period study will be presented using previously existing and newly derived times of minimum light. DK Sge (P=0.62182 d) appears to be an A-type contact binary with no published light curve. The eclipses are partial, with the primary eclipse being deeper by about 0.08 mag. The maxima show evidence of a slight asymmetry, although the light curve appears to be repeatable over the 1 month of observations. We present the first light curve solution using Binary Maker 3 and Wilson-Devinney, but have limited mass ratio constraints due to the absence of radial velocity data. A period study will be presented using previously existing and newly derived times of minimum light.

  6. Roc curves for continuous data

    CERN Document Server

    Krzanowski, Wojtek J

    2009-01-01

    Since ROC curves have become ubiquitous in many application areas, the various advances have been scattered across disparate articles and texts. ROC Curves for Continuous Data is the first book solely devoted to the subject, bringing together all the relevant material to provide a clear understanding of how to analyze ROC curves.The fundamental theory of ROC curvesThe book first discusses the relationship between the ROC curve and numerous performance measures and then extends the theory into practice by describing how ROC curves are estimated. Further building on the theory, the authors prese

  7. Learning Curves: Making Quality Online Health Information Available at a Fitness Center

    OpenAIRE

    Dobbins, Montie T.; Tarver, Talicia; Adams, Mararia; Jones, Dixie A.

    2012-01-01

    Meeting consumer health information needs can be a challenge. Research suggests that women seek health information from a variety of resources, including the Internet. In an effort to make women aware of reliable health information sources, the Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center – Shreveport Medical Library engaged in a partnership with a franchise location of Curves International, Inc. This article will discuss the project, its goals and its challenges.

  8. Learning Curves: Making Quality Online Health Information Available at a Fitness Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbins, Montie T; Tarver, Talicia; Adams, Mararia; Jones, Dixie A

    2012-01-01

    Meeting consumer health information needs can be a challenge. Research suggests that women seek health information from a variety of resources, including the Internet. In an effort to make women aware of reliable health information sources, the Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center - Shreveport Medical Library engaged in a partnership with a franchise location of Curves International, Inc. This article will discuss the project, its goals and its challenges.

  9. Revisiting the concept of environmental Kuznets curve in period of energy disaster and deteriorating income: Empirical evidence from Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rafindadi, Abdulkadir Abdulrashid

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the position of the Japanese environmental Kuznets curve in period of natural disaster and deteriorating income following the recent Fukushima energy crisis. The study aim to establish whether the EKC exist in period of energy disaster and deteriorating income. To ensure this, data from 1961 to 2012 was used while the Zivot-Andrew structural break test, the ARDL bounds test were applied, and these were validated using the innovation accounting test. The finding of the study established the existence of inverted-U shape, suggesting the presence of EKC despite the deteriorating income of the country. With the discovery of the existence of EKC in this study despite the dwindling productivity and revenue in Japan, this study challenged the EKC hypothesis and all existing studies on EKC, by establishing that natural disasters are in themselves strong causative agents for the EKC to unfold and it is immaterial whether the economic fortunes of a country is increasing or decreasing. The study further discovered energy consumption to be the major contributor of environmental degradation in Japan, while exports declines CO_2 emissions, but imports adds to environmental degradation. On the growth prospects of the Japanese economy after the crisis, the study discovered how energy consumption, exports, and imports contribute 33.55%, 1.027% and 7.126% to the country's economic growth respectively; in return a minimum of 16.24%, 23.89% and 44.18% of CO_2 emissions was discovered. The study proposed policy instruments that will help in realizing a balanced environment amidst efficient energy consumption and environmental management among others. - Highlights: •EKC exist in Japan in spite of the country's energy disaster and deteriorating income. •Energy consumption was found to be the major contributor to environmental degradation. •Energy disasters are in themselves agents for the EKC to unfold immaterial of fortunes. •Economic growth, exports and

  10. Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve in the Selected Transition Economies with Panel Smooth Transition Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmut Zortuk

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC introduces an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental pollution and economic development. The inverted U-shaped curve is seen as complete pattern for developed economies. However, our study tests the EKC for developing transition economies of European Union, therefore, our results could make a significant contribution to the literature. In this paper, the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions, gross domestic product (GDP, energy use and urban population is investigated in the Transition Economies (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Environmental Kuznets Curve is tested by panel smooth transition regression for these economies for 1993 – 2010 periods. As a result of study, the null hypothesis of linearity was rejected and no-remaining nonlinearity test showed that there is a smooth transition exists between two regimes (below $5176 GDP per capita is first one and above $5176 GDP per capita is second one in the related period for these economies.

  11. Atlas of stress-strain curves

    CERN Document Server

    2002-01-01

    The Atlas of Stress-Strain Curves, Second Edition is substantially bigger in page dimensions, number of pages, and total number of curves than the previous edition. It contains over 1,400 curves, almost three times as many as in the 1987 edition. The curves are normalized in appearance to aid making comparisons among materials. All diagrams include metric (SI) units, and many also include U.S. customary units. All curves are captioned in a consistent format with valuable information including (as available) standard designation, the primary source of the curve, mechanical properties (including hardening exponent and strength coefficient), condition of sample, strain rate, test temperature, and alloy composition. Curve types include monotonic and cyclic stress-strain, isochronous stress-strain, and tangent modulus. Curves are logically arranged and indexed for fast retrieval of information. The book also includes an introduction that provides background information on methods of stress-strain determination, on...

  12. Post-operative 3D CT feedback improves accuracy and precision in the learning curve of anatomic ACL femoral tunnel placement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirleo, Luigi; Innocenti, Massimo; Innocenti, Matteo; Civinini, Roberto; Carulli, Christian; Matassi, Fabrizio

    2018-02-01

    tunnel placement in order to obtain anatomic ACL reconstruction and helps to reduce also arthroscopic time and learning curve. For clinical relevance, trainee-surgeons should use feedback from post-operative 3DCT to learn anatomic ACL femoral tunnel placement and apply it appropriately. Consecutive case series, Level IV.

  13. CSI 2264: CHARACTERIZING YOUNG STARS IN NGC 2264 WITH STOCHASTICALLY VARYING LIGHT CURVES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, John; Rebull, Luisa; Carey, Sean [Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Cody, Ann Marie [NASA Ames Research Center, Kepler Science Office, Mountain View, CA 94035 (United States); Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Carpenter, John [Astronomy Department, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Turner, Neal J. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Terebey, Susan [Department of Physics and Astronomy, 5151 State University Drive, California State University at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90032 (United States); Morales-Calderón, Maria [Centro de Astrobiología, Dpto. de Astrofísica, INTA-CSIC, P.O. BOX 78, E-28691, ESAC Campus, Villanueva de la Cañada, Madrid (Spain); Alencar, Silvia H. P.; McGinnis, Pauline; Sousa, Alana [Departamento de Física—ICEx—UFMG, Av. Antônio Carlos, 6627, 30270-901, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Bouvier, Jerome; Venuti, Laura [Université de Grenoble, Institut de Planétologie et d’Astrophysique de Grenoble (IPAG), F-38000 Grenoble (France); Hartmann, Lee; Calvet, Nuria [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 500 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI:48105 (United States); Micela, Giusi; Flaccomio, Ettore [INAF—Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo, Piazza del Parlamento 1, I-90134, Palermo (Italy); Song, Inseok [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-2451 (United States); Gutermuth, Rob, E-mail: stauffer@ipac.caltech.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); and others

    2016-03-15

    We provide CoRoT and Spitzer light curves and other supporting data for 17 classical T Tauri stars in NGC 2264 whose CoRoT light curves exemplify the “stochastic” light curve class as defined in 2014 by Cody et al. The most probable physical mechanism to explain the optical variability within this light curve class is time-dependent mass accretion onto the stellar photosphere, producing transient hot spots. Where we have appropriate spectral data, we show that the veiling variability in these stars is consistent in both amplitude and timescale with the optical light curve morphology. The veiling variability is also well-correlated with the strength of the He i 6678 Å emission line, predicted by models to arise in accretion shocks on or near the stellar photosphere. Stars with accretion burst light curve morphology also have variable mass accretion. The stochastic and accretion burst light curves can both be explained by a simple model of randomly occurring flux bursts, with the stochastic light curve class having a higher frequency of lower amplitude events. Members of the stochastic light curve class have only moderate mass accretion rates. Their Hα profiles usually have blueshifted absorption features, probably originating in a disk wind. The lack of periodic signatures in the light curves suggests that little of the variability is due to long-lived hot spots rotating into or out of our line of sight; instead, the primary driver of the observed photometric variability is likely to be instabilities in the inner disk that lead to variable mass accretion.

  14. The GO Cygni system: photoelectric observations and light curves analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rovithis, P.; Rovithis-Livaniou, H.; Niarchos, P.G.

    1990-01-01

    Photoelectric observations, in B and V, of the system GO Cygni obtained during 1985 at the Kryonerion Astronomical Station of the National Observatory of Greece are given. The corresponding light curves (typical β Lyrae) are analysed using Frequency Domain techniques. New photoelectric and absolute elements for the system are given, and its period was found to continue its increasing

  15. Neuron class-specific requirements for Fragile X Mental Retardation Protein in critical period development of calcium signaling in learning and memory circuitry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doll, Caleb A; Broadie, Kendal

    2016-05-01

    Neural circuit optimization occurs through sensory activity-dependent mechanisms that refine synaptic connectivity and information processing during early-use developmental critical periods. Fragile X Mental Retardation Protein (FMRP), the gene product lost in Fragile X syndrome (FXS), acts as an activity sensor during critical period development, both as an RNA-binding translation regulator and channel-binding excitability regulator. Here, we employ a Drosophila FXS disease model to assay calcium signaling dynamics with a targeted transgenic GCaMP reporter during critical period development of the mushroom body (MB) learning/memory circuit. We find FMRP regulates depolarization-induced calcium signaling in a neuron-specific manner within this circuit, suppressing activity-dependent calcium transients in excitatory cholinergic MB input projection neurons and enhancing calcium signals in inhibitory GABAergic MB output neurons. Both changes are restricted to the developmental critical period and rectified at maturity. Importantly, conditional genetic (dfmr1) rescue of null mutants during the critical period corrects calcium signaling defects in both neuron classes, indicating a temporally restricted FMRP requirement. Likewise, conditional dfmr1 knockdown (RNAi) during the critical period replicates constitutive null mutant defects in both neuron classes, confirming cell-autonomous requirements for FMRP in developmental regulation of calcium signaling dynamics. Optogenetic stimulation during the critical period enhances depolarization-induced calcium signaling in both neuron classes, but this developmental change is eliminated in dfmr1 null mutants, indicating the activity-dependent regulation requires FMRP. These results show FMRP shapes neuron class-specific calcium signaling in excitatory vs. inhibitory neurons in developing learning/memory circuitry, and that FMRP mediates activity-dependent regulation of calcium signaling specifically during the early

  16. Can Online Learning Bend the Higher Education Cost Curve?

    OpenAIRE

    David J. Deming; Claudia Goldin; Lawrence F. Katz; Noam Yuchtman

    2015-01-01

    We examine whether online learning technologies have led to lower prices in higher education. Using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, we show that online education is concentrated in large for-profit chains and less-selective public institutions. We find that colleges with a higher share of online students charge lower tuition prices. We present evidence of declining real and relative prices for full-time undergraduate online education from 2006 to 2013. Although t...

  17. Tornado-Shaped Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Sol Sáez; de la Rosa, Félix Martínez; Rojas, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    In Advanced Calculus, our students wonder if it is possible to graphically represent a tornado by means of a three-dimensional curve. In this paper, we show it is possible by providing the parametric equations of such tornado-shaped curves.

  18. Quasi-Periodic Oscillations in the X-ray Light Curves of Blazars Paul ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the quasi-periodic component could provide a powerful tool for diagnosing the jet's structure. ... tent with the red-noise seen in most power spectra of AGN variability; QPOs would ... A statistical analysis of the periodogram for that observation yields a peak at ... (2008) also employed structure functions to try to characterize.

  19. A versatile curve-fit model for linear to deeply concave rank abundance curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neuteboom, J.H.; Struik, P.C.

    2005-01-01

    A new, flexible curve-fit model for linear to concave rank abundance curves was conceptualized and validated using observational data. The model links the geometric-series model and log-series model and can also fit deeply concave rank abundance curves. The model is based ¿ in an unconventional way

  20. Investigation of Mediational Processes Using Parallel Process Latent Growth Curve Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, JeeWon; MacKinnon, David P.; Khoo, Siek Toon

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated a method to evaluate mediational processes using latent growth curve modeling. The mediator and the outcome measured across multiple time points were viewed as 2 separate parallel processes. The mediational process was defined as the independent variable influencing the growth of the mediator, which, in turn, affected the growth of the outcome. To illustrate modeling procedures, empirical data from a longitudinal drug prevention program, Adolescents Training and Learning to Avoid Steroids, were used. The program effects on the growth of the mediator and the growth of the outcome were examined first in a 2-group structural equation model. The mediational process was then modeled and tested in a parallel process latent growth curve model by relating the prevention program condition, the growth rate factor of the mediator, and the growth rate factor of the outcome. PMID:20157639

  1. Dispersion Differences and Consistency of Artificial Periodic Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Zhi-Bao; Lin, Wen-Kai; Shi, Zhi-Fei

    2017-10-01

    Dispersion differences and consistency of artificial periodic structures, including phononic crystals, elastic metamaterials, as well as periodic structures composited of phononic crystals and elastic metamaterials, are investigated in this paper. By developing a K(ω) method, complex dispersion relations and group/phase velocity curves of both the single-mechanism periodic structures and the mixing-mechanism periodic structures are calculated at first, from which dispersion differences of artificial periodic structures are discussed. Then, based on a unified formulation, dispersion consistency of artificial periodic structures is investigated. Through a comprehensive comparison study, the correctness for the unified formulation is verified. Mathematical derivations of the unified formulation for different artificial periodic structures are presented. Furthermore, physical meanings of the unified formulation are discussed in the energy-state space.

  2. Point-vortex stability under the influence of an external periodic flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Rafael; Ortega, Víctor; Torres, Pedro J.

    2018-05-01

    We provide sufficient conditions for the stability of the particle advection around a fixed vortex in a two-dimensional ideal fluid under the action of a periodic background flow. The proof relies on the identification of closed invariant curves around the origin by means of Moser’s invariant curve theorem. Partially supported by Spanish MINECO and ERDF project MTM2014-52232-P.

  3. In-Vehicle Dynamic Curve-Speed Warnings at High-Risk Rural Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-01

    Lane-departure crashes at horizontal curves represent a significant portion of fatal crashes on rural Minnesota roads. Because of this, solutions are needed to aid drivers in identifying upcoming curves and inform them of a safe speed at which they s...

  4. SEGMENTATION OF MITOCHONDRIA IN ELECTRON MICROSCOPY IMAGES USING ALGEBRAIC CURVES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyedhosseini, Mojtaba; Ellisman, Mark H; Tasdizen, Tolga

    2013-01-01

    High-resolution microscopy techniques have been used to generate large volumes of data with enough details for understanding the complex structure of the nervous system. However, automatic techniques are required to segment cells and intracellular structures in these multi-terabyte datasets and make anatomical analysis possible on a large scale. We propose a fully automated method that exploits both shape information and regional statistics to segment irregularly shaped intracellular structures such as mitochondria in electron microscopy (EM) images. The main idea is to use algebraic curves to extract shape features together with texture features from image patches. Then, these powerful features are used to learn a random forest classifier, which can predict mitochondria locations precisely. Finally, the algebraic curves together with regional information are used to segment the mitochondria at the predicted locations. We demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms in segmentation of mitochondria in EM images.

  5. Learning and memory deficits in male adult mice treated with a benzodiazepine sleep-inducing drug during the juvenile period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuke Furukawa

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA, the major inhibitory neurotransmitter in the mammalian central nervous system, is also known to be important for brain development. Therefore, disturbances of GABA receptor (GABA-R mediated signaling (GABA-R signal during brain development may influence normal brain maturation and cause late-onset brain malfunctions. In this study, we examined whether the temporal stimulation of the GABA-R signal during brain development induces late-onset adverse effects on the brain in adult male mice. To stimulate the GABA-R signal, we used either the benzodiazepine sleep-inducing drug triazolam (TZ or the non-benzodiazepine drug zolpidem (ZP. We detected deficits in learning and memory in mice treated with TZ during the juvenile period, as seen in the fear conditioning test. On the other hand, ZP administration during the juvenile period had little effect. In addition, decreased protein expression of GluR1 and GluR4, which are excitatory neurotransmitter receptors, was detected in the hippocampi of mice treated with TZ during the juvenile period. We measured mRNA expression of the immediate early genes (IEGs, which are neuronal activity markers, in the hippocampus shortly after the administration of TZ or ZP to juvenile mice. Decreased IEG expression was detected in mice with juvenile TZ administration, but not in mice with juvenile ZP administration. Our findings demonstrate that TZ administration during the juvenile period can induce irreversible brain dysfunction in adult mice. It may need to take an extra care for the prescription of benzodiazepine sleep-inducing drugs to juveniles because it might cause late onset learning and memory defects.

  6. Training With Curved Laparoscopic Instruments in Single-Port Setting Improves Performance Using Straight Instruments: A Prospective Randomized Simulation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukovich, Peter; Sionov, Valery Ben; Kakucs, Timea

    2016-01-01

    Lately single-port surgery is becoming a widespread procedure, but it is more difficult than conventional laparoscopy owing to the lack of triangulation. Although, these operations are also possible with standard laparoscopic instruments, curved instruments are being developed. The aims of the study were to identify the effect of training on a box trainer in single-port setting on the quality of acquired skills, and transferred with the straight and curved instruments for the basic laparoscopic tasks, and highlight the importance of a special laparoscopic training curriculum. A prospective study on a box trainer in single-port setting was conducted using 2 groups. Each group performed 2 tasks on the box trainer in single-port setting. Group-S used conventional straight laparoscopic instruments, and Group-C used curved laparoscopic instruments. Learning curves were obtained by daily measurements recorded in 7-day sessions. On the last day, the 2 groups changed instruments between each other. 1st Department of Surgery, Semmelweis University of Medicine from Budapest, Hungary, a university teaching hospital. In all, 20 fifth-year medical students were randomized into 2 groups. None of them had any laparoscopic or endoscopic experience. Participation was voluntary. Although Group-S performed all tasks significantly faster than Group-C on the first day, the difference proved to be nonsignificant on the last day. All participants achieved significantly shorter task completion time on the last day than on the first day, regardless of the instrument they used. Group-S showed improvement of 63.5%, and Group-C 69.0% improvement by the end of the session. After swapping the instruments, Group-S reached significantly higher task completion time with curved instruments, whereas Group-C showed further progression of 8.9% with straight instruments. Training with curved instruments in a single-port setting allows for a better acquisition of skills in a shorter period. For this

  7. The curve shortening problem

    CERN Document Server

    Chou, Kai-Seng

    2001-01-01

    Although research in curve shortening flow has been very active for nearly 20 years, the results of those efforts have remained scattered throughout the literature. For the first time, The Curve Shortening Problem collects and illuminates those results in a comprehensive, rigorous, and self-contained account of the fundamental results.The authors present a complete treatment of the Gage-Hamilton theorem, a clear, detailed exposition of Grayson''s convexity theorem, a systematic discussion of invariant solutions, applications to the existence of simple closed geodesics on a surface, and a new, almost convexity theorem for the generalized curve shortening problem.Many questions regarding curve shortening remain outstanding. With its careful exposition and complete guide to the literature, The Curve Shortening Problem provides not only an outstanding starting point for graduate students and new investigations, but a superb reference that presents intriguing new results for those already active in the field.

  8. Testing the stationarity of white dwarf light-curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molnar, L; Kollath, Z; Plachy, E; Paparo, M

    2009-01-01

    Long period white dwarfs show changes in their frequency spectra from one observing season to another, i.e. their light-curves cannot be considered as stationary multiperiodic variations on long timescales. However, due to the complex frequency spectra of these stars and the narrow frequency spacing, it is still unknown, what the shortest time scale is, where real physical modulation exists. We present tests on artificial data, resembling the observations, using time-frequency distributions (TFDs), Fourier-analysis and the analytical signal method.

  9. Predictive risk factors of postoperative urinary incontinence following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate during the initial learning period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichiro Kobayashi

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Purpose: To determine the predictive factors for postoperative urinary incontinence (UI following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP during the initial learning period. Patients and Methods: We evaluated 127 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia who underwent HoLEP between January 2011 and December 2013. We recorded clinical variables, including blood loss, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, and the presence or absence of UI. Blood loss was estimated as a decline in postoperative hemoglobin levels. The predictive factors for postoperative UI were determined using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: Postoperative UI occurred in 31 patients (24.4%, but it cured in 29 patients (93.5% after a mean duration of 12 weeks. Enucleation time >100 min (p=0.043 and blood loss >2.5g/dL (p=0.032 were identified as significant and independent risk factors for postoperative UI. Conclusions: Longer enucleation time and increased blood loss were independent predictors of postoperative UI in patients who underwent HoLEP during the initial learning period. Surgeons in training should take care to perform speedy enucleation maneuver with hemostasis.

  10. The learning curve for access creation in solo ultrasonography-guided percutaneous nephrolithotomy and the associated skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Weimin; Rao, Ting; Li, Xing; Ruan, Yuan; Yuan, Run; Li, Chenglong; Li, Haoyong; Cheng, Fan

    2017-03-01

    The aim of the current trial was to evaluate the learning curve of access creation through solo ultrasonography (US)-guided percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), and clarify the technical details of the procedure. We evaluated the first 240 solo US-guided PCNLs performed by one surgeon at our institution. The data including the puncture procedure, access characteristics, access-related complications and stone-free rates were assessed in four sequential groups. The puncture duration and number of times decreased from a mean of 4.4 min and 2.1 times for the first 60 patients to 1.3 min and 1.2 times for the last 60 patients. There was a significant decrease from 3.7 min and 1.8 times for the 61th-120th patients to 1.5 min and 1.3 times for the 121th-180th patients. All of the access-related severe bleeding appeared in the first 120 patients, while perforations only occurred in the first 60 patients. The stone-free rates were 68.3, 83.3, 90.0, and 93.3% for the four sequential groups. The increase in experience lead to an improvement in the puncture duration and times, which accompany with better stone-free rates and lower complications. We propose that 60 operations are sufficient to gain competency, and a cutoff point of 120 operations will allow the surgeon to achieve excellence in the solo US-guided PCNL.

  11. Empirical Percentile Growth Curves with Z-scores Considering Seasonal Compensatory Growths for Japanese Thoroughbred Horses

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONODA, Tomoaki; YAMAMOTO, Ryuta; SAWAMURA, Kyohei; MURASE, Harutaka; NAMBO, Yasuo; INOUE, Yoshinobu; MATSUI, Akira; MIYAKE, Takeshi; HIRAI, Nobuhiro

    2013-01-01

    Percentile growth curves are often used as a clinical indicator to evaluate variations of children’s growth status. In this study, we propose empirical percentile growth curves using Z-scores adapted for Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Individual horses and residual effects were included as random effects in the growth curve equation model and their variance components were estimated. Based on the Z-scores of the estimated variance components, empirical percentile growth curves were constructed. A total of 5,594 and 5,680 body weight and age measurements of male and female Thoroughbreds, respectively, and 3,770 withers height and age measurements were used in the analyses. The developed empirical percentile growth curves using Z-scores are computationally feasible and useful for monitoring individual growth parameters of body weight and withers height of young Thoroughbred horses, especially during compensatory growth periods. PMID:24834004

  12. What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesicki, Fabian

    2013-01-01

    Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves are widely used for the assessment of costs related to CO 2 emissions reduction in environmental economics, as well as domestic and international climate policy. Several meta-analyses and model comparisons have previously been performed that aim to identify the causes for the wide range of MAC curves. Most of these concentrate on general equilibrium models with a focus on aspects such as specific model type and technology learning, while other important aspects remain almost unconsidered, including the availability of abatement technologies and level of discount rates. This paper addresses the influence of several key parameters on MAC curves for the United Kingdom and the year 2030. A technology-rich energy system model, UK MARKAL, is used to derive the MAC curves. The results of this study show that MAC curves are robust even to extreme fossil fuel price changes, while uncertainty around the choice of the discount rate, the availability of key abatement technologies and the demand level were singled out as the most important influencing factors. By using a different model type and studying a wider range of influencing factors, this paper contributes to the debate on the sensitivity of MAC curves. - Highlights: ► A partial-equilibrium model is employed to test key sensitivities of MAC curves. ► MAC curves are found to be robust to wide-ranging changes in fossil fuel prices. ► Most influencing factors are the discount rate, availability of key technologies. ► Further important uncertainty in MAC curves is related to demand changes

  13. Part 5: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve and Area under the Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Safari

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Multiple diagnostic tools are used by emergency physicians,every day. In addition, new tools are evaluated to obtainmore accurate methods and reduce time or cost of conventionalones. In the previous parts of this educationalseries, we described diagnostic performance characteristicsof diagnostic tests including sensitivity, specificity, positiveand negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios. Thereceiver operating characteristics (ROC curve is a graphicalpresentation of screening characteristics. ROC curve is usedto determine the best cutoff point and compare two or moretests or observers by measuring the area under the curve(AUC. In this part of our educational series, we explain ROCcurve and two methods to determine the best cutoff value.

  14. PULSATION PERIOD VARIATIONS IN THE RRc LYRAE STAR KIC 5520878

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hippke, Michael [Institute for Data Analysis, Luiter Str. 21b, D-47506 Neukirchen-Vluyn (Germany); Learned, John G. [High Energy Physics Group, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Hawaii, Manoa 327 Watanabe Hall, 2505 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Zee, A. [Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Edmondson, William H. [School of Computer Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Lindner, John F. [Physics Department, The College of Wooster, Wooster, OH 44691 (United States); Kia, Behnam; Ditto, William L. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Hawai' i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Stevens, Ian R., E-mail: hippke@ifda.eu, E-mail: jgl@phys.hawaii.edu, E-mail: zee@kitp.ucsb.edu, E-mail: w.h.edmondson@bham.ac.uk, E-mail: jlindner@wooster.edu, E-mail: wditto@hawaii.edu, E-mail: behnam@hawaii.edu, E-mail: irs@star.sr.bham.ac.uk [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom)

    2015-01-01

    Learned et al. proposed that a sufficiently advanced extra-terrestrial civilization may tickle Cepheid and RR Lyrae variable stars with a neutrino beam at the right time, thus causing them to trigger early and jogging the otherwise very regular phase of their expansion and contraction. This would turn these stars into beacons to transmit information throughout the galaxy and beyond. The idea is to search for signs of phase modulation (in the regime of short pulse duration) and patterns, which could be indicative of intentional, omnidirectional signaling. We have performed such a search among variable stars using photometric data from the Kepler space telescope. In the RRc Lyrae star KIC 5520878, we have found two such regimes of long and short pulse durations. The sequence of period lengths, expressed as time series data, is strongly autocorrelated, with correlation coefficients of prime numbers being significantly higher (p = 99.8%). Our analysis of this candidate star shows that the prime number oddity originates from two simultaneous pulsation periods and is likely of natural origin. Simple physical models elucidate the frequency content and asymmetries of the KIC 5520878 light curve. Despite this SETI null result, we encourage testing of other archival and future time-series photometry for signs of modulated stars. This can be done as a by-product to the standard analysis, and can even be partly automated.

  15. Learning thoracoscopic lobectomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, René Horsleben; Hansen, Henrik Jessen

    2010-01-01

    Thoracoscopic (video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS)) lobectomy is a safe and effective method for treating early-stage lung cancer. Despite this, it is still not widely practised, which could be due to a shallow learning curve. We have evaluated the surgical outcome in a training programme...

  16. Signature Curves Statistics of DNA Supercoils

    OpenAIRE

    Shakiban, Cheri; Lloyd, Peter

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we describe the Euclidean signature curves for two dimensional closed curves in the plane and their generalization to closed space curves. The focus will be on discrete numerical methods for approximating such curves. Further we will apply these numerical methods to plot the signature curves related to three-dimensional simulated DNA supercoils. Our primary focus will be on statistical analysis of the data generated for the signature curves of the supercoils. We will try to esta...

  17. Method of construction spatial transition curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Didanov

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The movement of rail transport (speed rolling stock, traffic safety, etc. is largely dependent on the quality of the track. In this case, a special role is the transition curve, which ensures smooth insertion of the transition from linear to circular section of road. The article deals with modeling of spatial transition curve based on the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion. This is a continuation of research conducted by the authors regarding the spatial modeling of curved contours. Methodology. Construction of the spatial transition curve is numerical methods for solving nonlinear integral equations, where the initial data are taken coordinate the starting and ending points of the curve of the future, and the inclination of the tangent and the deviation of the curve from the tangent plane at these points. System solutions for the numerical method are the partial derivatives of the equations of the unknown parameters of the law of change of torsion and length of the transition curve. Findings. The parametric equations of the spatial transition curve are calculated by finding the unknown coefficients of the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion, as well as the spatial length of the transition curve. Originality. A method for constructing the spatial transition curve is devised, and based on this software geometric modeling spatial transition curves of railway track with specified deviations of the curve from the tangent plane. Practical value. The resulting curve can be applied in any sector of the economy, where it is necessary to ensure a smooth transition from linear to circular section of the curved space bypass. An example is the transition curve in the construction of the railway line, road, pipe, profile, flat section of the working blades of the turbine and compressor, the ship, plane, car, etc.

  18. A Learning Algorithm based on High School Teaching Wisdom

    OpenAIRE

    Philip, Ninan Sajeeth

    2010-01-01

    A learning algorithm based on primary school teaching and learning is presented. The methodology is to continuously evaluate a student and to give them training on the examples for which they repeatedly fail, until, they can correctly answer all types of questions. This incremental learning procedure produces better learning curves by demanding the student to optimally dedicate their learning time on the failed examples. When used in machine learning, the algorithm is found to train a machine...

  19. On the necessity of U-shaped learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlucci, Lorenzo; Case, John

    2013-01-01

    A U-shaped curve in a cognitive-developmental trajectory refers to a three-step process: good performance followed by bad performance followed by good performance once again. U-shaped curves have been observed in a wide variety of cognitive-developmental and learning contexts. U-shaped learning seems to contradict the idea that learning is a monotonic, cumulative process and thus constitutes a challenge for competing theories of cognitive development and learning. U-shaped behavior in language learning (in particular in learning English past tense) has become a central topic in the Cognitive Science debate about learning models. Antagonist models (e.g., connectionism versus nativism) are often judged on their ability of modeling or accounting for U-shaped behavior. The prior literature is mostly occupied with explaining how U-shaped behavior occurs. Instead, we are interested in the necessity of this kind of apparently inefficient strategy. We present and discuss a body of results in the abstract mathematical setting of (extensions of) Gold-style computational learning theory addressing a mathematically precise version of the following question: Are there learning tasks that require U-shaped behavior? All notions considered are learning in the limit from positive data. We present results about the necessity of U-shaped learning in classical models of learning as well as in models with bounds on the memory of the learner. The pattern emerges that, for parameterized, cognitively relevant learning criteria, beyond very few initial parameter values, U-shapes are necessary for full learning power! We discuss the possible relevance of the above results for the Cognitive Science debate about learning models as well as directions for future research. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  20. A Journey Between Two Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Cherkis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available A typical solution of an integrable system is described in terms of a holomorphic curve and a line bundle over it. The curve provides the action variables while the time evolution is a linear flow on the curve's Jacobian. Even though the system of Nahm equations is closely related to the Hitchin system, the curves appearing in these two cases have very different nature. The former can be described in terms of some classical scattering problem while the latter provides a solution to some Seiberg-Witten gauge theory. This note identifies the setup in which one can formulate the question of relating the two curves.

  1. A Note on Testing for Environmental Kuznets Curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dijkgraaf, E.; Vollebergh, H.R.J.

    2001-05-20

    This paper casts doubt on empirical results based on panel estimations of an 'inverted-U' relationship between per capita GDP and pollution. Using a new data set for OECD countries on carbon dioxide emissions for the period 1960-1997, we find that the crucial assumption of homogeneity across countries is problematic. Decisively rejected are model specifications that feature even weaker homogeneity assumptions than are commonly used. Furthermore, our results challenge the existence of an overall Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon dioxide emissions. 10 refs.

  2. Bond yield curve construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kožul Nataša

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the broadest sense, yield curve indicates the market's view of the evolution of interest rates over time. However, given that cost of borrowing it closely linked to creditworthiness (ability to repay, different yield curves will apply to different currencies, market sectors, or even individual issuers. As government borrowing is indicative of interest rate levels available to other market players in a particular country, and considering that bond issuance still remains the dominant form of sovereign debt, this paper describes yield curve construction using bonds. The relationship between zero-coupon yield, par yield and yield to maturity is given and their usage in determining curve discount factors is described. Their usage in deriving forward rates and pricing related derivative instruments is also discussed.

  3. Dynamic Hebbian Cross-Correlation Learning Resolves the Spike Timing Dependent Plasticity Conundrum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjeerd V. olde Scheper

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Spike Timing-Dependent Plasticity has been found to assume many different forms. The classic STDP curve, with one potentiating and one depressing window, is only one of many possible curves that describe synaptic learning using the STDP mechanism. It has been shown experimentally that STDP curves may contain multiple LTP and LTD windows of variable width, and even inverted windows. The underlying STDP mechanism that is capable of producing such an extensive, and apparently incompatible, range of learning curves is still under investigation. In this paper, it is shown that STDP originates from a combination of two dynamic Hebbian cross-correlations of local activity at the synapse. The correlation of the presynaptic activity with the local postsynaptic activity is a robust and reliable indicator of the discrepancy between the presynaptic neuron and the postsynaptic neuron's activity. The second correlation is between the local postsynaptic activity with dendritic activity which is a good indicator of matching local synaptic and dendritic activity. We show that this simple time-independent learning rule can give rise to many forms of the STDP learning curve. The rule regulates synaptic strength without the need for spike matching or other supervisory learning mechanisms. Local differences in dendritic activity at the synapse greatly affect the cross-correlation difference which determines the relative contributions of different neural activity sources. Dendritic activity due to nearby synapses, action potentials, both forward and back-propagating, as well as inhibitory synapses will dynamically modify the local activity at the synapse, and the resulting STDP learning rule. The dynamic Hebbian learning rule ensures furthermore, that the resulting synaptic strength is dynamically stable, and that interactions between synapses do not result in local instabilities. The rule clearly demonstrates that synapses function as independent localized

  4. Theoretical Aspects of Phonon Dispersion Curves for Metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochran, W.

    1965-01-01

    Reasonably complete knowledge of the phonon dispersion curves for at least a dozen metallic elements and intermetallic compounds has now been obtained from neutron inelastic scattering experiments. The results have one feature in common: when analysed in terms of interatomic force constants they reveal the presence of comparatively long-range forces extending over several atomic spacings. The results for lead are particularly interesting; it did not prove possible to fit them by a force-constant model, but the dispersion curves for wave vectors in symmetry directions when analysed in terms of force constants between planes of atoms showed an oscillatory interatomic potential extending over distances of more than 20Å. This review is concerned with recent theoretical work which has a bearing on the calculation of phonon dispersion curves for metals and the explanation of the long range of the interatomic potential. The best hope at present for a general treatment of atomic interaction in metals appears to lie in the ''method of neutral pseudo-atoms'', (a description recently coined by Ziman). This approximate theory is outlined and its relevance to Kohn anomalies in phonon dispersion curves is discussed. Experimental data for sodium is consistent with the theory, and the interatomic potential in sodium varies periodically in a distance π/k F , where fik F is the Fermi momentum, as has already been demonstrated by Koenig in a different way. More exact calculations have been made for sodium by Toya and by Sham. The relationship between the different methods and other work of a more general character such as that of Harrison are discussed. (author) [fr

  5. Effect from Hyperbolic Law in Periodic Table of Elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khazan A.

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Hyperbola curves Y = K/X and Y = ( mx + n / ( px + q at determination of the upper limit of the Periodic System have been studied. Their interdependence is shown by the example of mathematical calculations in chemistry.

  6. Curve Digitizer – A software for multiple curves digitizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentin ŞPERLEA

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Curve Digitizer is software that extracts data from an image file representing a graphicand returns them as pairs of numbers which can then be used for further analysis and applications.Numbers can be read on a computer screen stored in files or copied on paper. The final result is adata set that can be used with other tools such as MSEXCEL. Curve Digitizer provides a useful toolfor any researcher or engineer interested in quantifying the data displayed graphically. The image filecan be obtained by scanning a document

  7. Polynomial curve fitting for control rod worth using least square numerical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muhammad Husamuddin Abdul Khalil; Mark Dennis Usang; Julia Abdul Karim; Mohd Amin Sharifuldin Salleh

    2012-01-01

    RTP must have sufficient excess reactivity to compensate the negative reactivity feedback effects such as those caused by the fuel temperature and power defects of reactivity, fuel burn-up and to allow full power operation for predetermined period of time. To compensate this excess reactivity, it is necessary to introduce an amount of negative reactivity by adjusting or controlling the control rods at will. Control rod worth depends largely upon the value of the neutron flux at the location of the rod and reflected by a polynomial curve. Purpose of this paper is to rule out the polynomial curve fitting using least square numerical techniques via MATLAB compatible language. (author)

  8. National proficiency-gain curves for minimally invasive gastrointestinal cancer surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenzie, H; Markar, S R; Askari, A; Ni, M; Faiz, O; Hanna, G B

    2016-01-01

    Minimal access surgery for gastrointestinal cancer has short-term benefits but is associated with a proficiency-gain curve. The aim of this study was to define national proficiency-gain curves for minimal access colorectal and oesophagogastric surgery, and to determine the impact on clinical outcomes. All adult patients undergoing minimal access oesophageal, colonic and rectal surgery between 2002 and 2012 were identified from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. Proficiency-gain curves were created using risk-adjusted cumulative sum analysis. Change points were identified, and bootstrapping was performed with 1000 iterations to identify a confidence level. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality; secondary outcomes were 90-day mortality, reintervention, conversion and length of hospital stay. Some 1696, 15 008 and 16 701 minimal access oesophageal, rectal and colonic cancer resections were performed during the study period. The change point in the proficiency-gain curve for 30-day mortality for oesophageal, rectal and colonic surgery was 19 (confidence level 98·4 per cent), 20 (99·2 per cent) and three (99·5 per cent) procedures; the mortality rate fell from 4·0 to 2·0 per cent (relative risk reduction (RRR) 0·50, P = 0·033), from 2·1 to 1·2 per cent (RRR 0·43, P curve for reintervention in oesophageal, rectal and colonic resection was 19 (98·1 per cent), 32 (99·5 per cent) and 26 (99·2 per cent) procedures respectively. There were also significant proficiency-gain curves for 90-day mortality, conversion and length of stay. The introduction of minimal access gastrointestinal cancer surgery has been associated with a proficiency-gain curve for mortality and major morbidity at a national level. Unnecessary patient harm should be avoided by appropriate training and monitoring of new surgical techniques. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Learning ActionScript 30

    CERN Document Server

    Shupe, Rich

    2010-01-01

    If you're new to ActionScript 3.0, or want to enhance your skill set, this bestselling book is the ideal guide. Designers, developers, and programmers alike will find Learning ActionScript 3.0 invaluable for navigating ActionScript 3.0's learning curve. You'll learn the language by getting a clear look at essential topics such as logic, event handling, displaying content, classes, and much more. Updated for Flash Professional CS5, this revised and expanded edition delivers hands-on exercises and full-color code samples to help you increase your abilities as you progress through the book. Top

  10. Developing an empirical Environmental Kuznets Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferry Purnawan

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to develop a model of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC that relates between environmental pollution level and the prosperity level in Tangerang City. The method uses two models of pooled data regression technique namely, Random Effect Model (REM, and Fixed Effects Model (FEM both quadratic and cubic. The period of observation is 2002-2012. The results suggest that relationship between per capita income and the level of environment quality, reflected as the BOD concentration (Oxygen Biological damage and COD (Chemical Oxygen Damage can be explained by the quadratic FEM model and follow the EKC hypothesis even though the turning point is not identified.

  11. On-line learning through simple perceptron with a margin

    OpenAIRE

    Hara, Kazuyuki; Okada, Masato

    2003-01-01

    We analyze a learning method that uses a margin $\\kappa$ {\\it a la} Gardner for simple perceptron learning. This method corresponds to the perceptron learning when $\\kappa=0$, and to the Hebbian learning when $\\kappa \\to \\infty$. Nevertheless, we found that the generalization ability of the method was superior to that of the perceptron and the Hebbian methods at an early stage of learning. We analyzed the asymptotic property of the learning curve of this method through computer simulation and...

  12. Estimating reaction rate constants: comparison between traditional curve fitting and curve resolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, S.; Boelens, H. F. M.; Hoefsloot, H. C. J.; Smilde, A. K.

    2000-01-01

    A traditional curve fitting (TCF) algorithm is compared with a classical curve resolution (CCR) approach for estimating reaction rate constants from spectral data obtained in time of a chemical reaction. In the TCF algorithm, reaction rate constants an estimated from the absorbance versus time data

  13. A catalog of special plane curves

    CERN Document Server

    Lawrence, J Dennis

    2014-01-01

    Among the largest, finest collections available-illustrated not only once for each curve, but also for various values of any parameters present. Covers general properties of curves and types of derived curves. Curves illustrated by a CalComp digital incremental plotter. 12 illustrations.

  14. Intersection numbers of spectral curves

    CERN Document Server

    Eynard, B.

    2011-01-01

    We compute the symplectic invariants of an arbitrary spectral curve with only 1 branchpoint in terms of integrals of characteristic classes in the moduli space of curves. Our formula associates to any spectral curve, a characteristic class, which is determined by the laplace transform of the spectral curve. This is a hint to the key role of Laplace transform in mirror symmetry. When the spectral curve is y=\\sqrt{x}, the formula gives Kontsevich--Witten intersection numbers, when the spectral curve is chosen to be the Lambert function \\exp{x}=y\\exp{-y}, the formula gives the ELSV formula for Hurwitz numbers, and when one chooses the mirror of C^3 with framing f, i.e. \\exp{-x}=\\exp{-yf}(1-\\exp{-y}), the formula gives the Marino-Vafa formula, i.e. the generating function of Gromov-Witten invariants of C^3. In some sense this formula generalizes ELSV, Marino-Vafa formula, and Mumford formula.

  15. Multiple-wavelength Variability and Quasi-periodic Oscillation of PMN J0948+0022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jin [Key Laboratory of Space Astronomy and Technology, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Zhang, Hai-Ming; Zhu, Yong-Kai; Lu, Rui-Jing; Liang, En-Wei [Guangxi Key Laboratory for Relativistic Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004 (China); Yi, Ting-Feng [Department of Physics, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500 (China); Yao, Su, E-mail: jinzhang@bao.ac.cn [Kavli Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)

    2017-11-01

    We present a comprehensive analysis of multiple-wavelength observational data of the first GeV-selected narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy PMN J0948+0022. We derive its light curves in the γ -ray and X-ray bands from the data observed with Fermi /LAT and Swift /XRT, and generate the optical and radio light curves by collecting the data from the literature. These light curves show significant flux variations. With the LAT data we show that this source is analogous to typical flat spectrum radio quasars in the L {sub γ} –Γ {sub γ} plane, where L {sub γ} and Γ {sub γ} are the luminosity and spectral index in the LAT energy band. The γ -ray flux is correlated with the V-band flux with a lag of ∼44 days, and a moderate quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) with a periodicity of ∼490 days observed in the LAT light curve. A similar QPO signature is also found in the V-band light curve. The γ -ray flux is not correlated with the radio flux in 15 GHz, and no similar QPO signature is found at a confidence level of 95%. Possible mechanisms of the QPO are discussed. We propose that gravitational-wave observations in the future may clarify the current plausible models for the QPO.

  16. NEPTUNE'S DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE FROM KEPLER K2 OBSERVATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR BROWN DWARF LIGHT CURVE ANALYSES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Amy A; Rowe, Jason F; Gaulme, Patrick; Hammel, Heidi B; Casewell, Sarah L; Fortney, Jonathan J; Gizis, John E; Lissauer, Jack J; Morales-Juberias, Raul; Orton, Glenn S; Wong, Michael H; Marley, Mark S

    2016-02-01

    Observations of Neptune with the Kepler Space Telescope yield a 49 day light curve with 98% coverage at a 1 minute cadence. A significant signature in the light curve comes from discrete cloud features. We compare results extracted from the light curve data with contemporaneous disk-resolved imaging of Neptune from the Keck 10-m telescope at 1.65 microns and Hubble Space Telescope visible imaging acquired nine months later. This direct comparison validates the feature latitudes assigned to the K2 light curve periods based on Neptune's zonal wind profile, and confirms observed cloud feature variability. Although Neptune's clouds vary in location and intensity on short and long timescales, a single large discrete storm seen in Keck imaging dominates the K2 and Hubble light curves; smaller or fainter clouds likely contribute to short-term brightness variability. The K2 Neptune light curve, in conjunction with our imaging data, provides context for the interpretation of current and future brown dwarf and extrasolar planet variability measurements. In particular we suggest that the balance between large, relatively stable, atmospheric features and smaller, more transient, clouds controls the character of substellar atmospheric variability. Atmospheres dominated by a few large spots may show inherently greater light curve stability than those which exhibit a greater number of smaller features.

  17. Elliptic curves for applications (Tutorial)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lange, T.; Bernstein, D.J.; Chatterjee, S.

    2011-01-01

    More than 25 years ago, elliptic curves over finite fields were suggested as a group in which the Discrete Logarithm Problem (DLP) can be hard. Since then many researchers have scrutinized the security of the DLP on elliptic curves with the result that for suitably chosen curves only exponential

  18. Models of genus one curves

    OpenAIRE

    Sadek, Mohammad

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis we give insight into the minimisation problem of genus one curves defined by equations other than Weierstrass equations. We are interested in genus one curves given as double covers of P1, plane cubics, or complete intersections of two quadrics in P3. By minimising such a curve we mean making the invariants associated to its defining equations as small as possible using a suitable change of coordinates. We study the non-uniqueness of minimisations of the genus one curves des...

  19. Learning Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Caponegro

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available “What’s the matter with Mary Caponegro ?” Françoise Palleau-Papin Were I to introduce Mary Caponegro formally, in an official biographical notice, it would go something like this: Mary Caponegro is the Richard B. Fisher Family Professor in Literature and Writing at Bard College, where William Gaddis once taught. She is the author of five works of fiction: Tales from the Next Village (Lost Roads, 1985, The Star Cafe (Scribner, 1990, Five Doubts (Marsilio, 1998, The Complexities of Intimacy ...

  20. Short-radius horizontal well re-entry learning curve: prize, cost and operational experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boote, K. [Ocelot Energy Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada); MacDonald, R. [Lauron Engineering Ltd, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    1997-12-01

    Six mature vertical wells in Alberta belonging to Ocelot Energy Inc., were reentered and drilled horizontally. Experiences gained, the modifications made to the drilling program and the rewards in the form of incremental oil, were discussed. Details of pre- and post-performance, operational experiences with exiting the casing, building the curve, overbalance versus underbalanced drilling, motors, directional equipment, setting liners, remedial workovers and the cost of the operation were part of the discussion.

  1. In-plane impulse response of a curved bar with varying cross-section

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Katsuyoshi; Kosawada, Tadashi; Takahashi, Shin; Miyashita, Yasushi.

    1984-01-01

    The vibration problem of a curved bar, of which the center line is represented with a plane curve, is important for the aseismatic design of the piping system and structures in chemical and nuclear plants. The dynamic response problem of an in-plane curved bar has not been sufficiently examined. In this study, the in-plane impact response of an in-plane curved bar having varying cross section when impact load acts in the direction of the center of curvature was analyzed. First, the Lagrangian of a curved bar with varying cross section when general exciting distributed load acts in the direction of the center of curvature along the center line was determined by the classic theory, and from its stationary condition, the equations of motion and boundary conditions were derived. Next, the equations of motion were analyzed by eigen-function development method. In the example of numerical calculation, the variation of displacement and bending moment in course of time when stepwise concentrated impact load acts on a both ends fixed symmetric semi-elliptic arc bar was determined. Besides, the change of response due to the change of cross section and the change of the point of impact load application was clarified. Displacement and bending moment varied at a certain period with static value at the center. (Kako, I.)

  2. Multi-band photometric study of the short-period eclipsing binary GR Boo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Daimei; Zhang, Liyun; Han, Xianming L.; Lu, Hongpeng

    2017-05-01

    We present BVRI light curves with complete phase coverage for the short-period (p = 0.377day) eclipsing binary star GR Boo. We carried out the observations using the SARA 90 cm telescope located at Kitt Peak National Observatory. We obtained six new light curve minimum times. By fitting all of the available O-C minimum times, we obtained an updated ephemeris that shows the orbital period of GR Boo is decreasing at a rate of P˙ = - 2.36 ×10-7 days/year. This decrease in its period can be explained by either mass transfer from the more massive component to the less massive one, or angular momentum exchange due to magnetic activities. We also obtained a set of revised orbital parameters using the Wilson & Devinney program. And finally, we concluded that GR Boo is a contact binary with a dark spot.

  3. Period04 FCAPT uvby Photometric Studies of Eight Magnetic CP Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adelman, Saul J.; Dukes, Robert J.

    2014-06-01

    We present Four College Automated Photometric Telescope (FCAPT) differential Stromgren uvby photometry of 8 magnetic CP (mCP) stars: HD 5797 (V551 Cas), HD 26792 (DH Cam), HD 27309 (56 Tau, V724 Tau), HD 49713 (V740 Mon), HD 74521 (49 Cnc, BI Cnc), HD 120198 (84 UMa, CR UMa), HD 171263 (QU Ser), and HD 215441 (GL Lac, Babcock's star). Our data sets are larger than those of most mCP stars in the literature. These are the first FCAPT observations of HD 5797, HD 26792, HD 49713, and HD 171263. Those for the remaining four stars substantially extend published FCAPT data. The FCAPT observed some stars for a longer time range and with greater accuracy than other optical region automated photometric telescopes.Our goals were to determine very accurate periods, the u, v, b, and y amplitudes, and if there were any long period periods. In addition we wanted to compare our results with those of magnetic field measurements to help interpret the light curves.We used the Period04 computer program to analyze the light curves. This program provides errors for the derived quantities as it fits the light curve. Our derived periods of 68.046 +/- 0.008 days for HD 5797, 3.80205 +/- 0.00006 days for HD 26792, 1.56889 +/- 0.000002 days for HD 27309, 2.13536 +/- 0.00002 days for HD 49713, 7.0505 +/- 0.0001 days for HD 74521, 1.38577 +/- 0.000004 days for HD 120198, 3.9974 +/- 0.0001days for HD 171263, and 9.487792 +/- 0.00005 days for HD 215441 are refinements of the best determinations in the literature.

  4. ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutawanir Darwis

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.

  5. Oscillatory patterns in the light curves of five long-term monitored type 1 active galactic nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovačević, Andjelka B.; Pérez-Hernández, Ernesto; Popović, Luka Č.; Shapovalova, Alla I.; Kollatschny, Wolfram; Ilić, Dragana

    2018-04-01

    New combined data of five well-known type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are probed with a novel hybrid method in a search for oscillatory behaviour. Additional analysis of artificial light curves obtained from the coupled oscillatory models gives confirmation for detected periods that could have a physical background. We find periodic variations in the long-term light curves of 3C 390.3, NGC 4151 and NGC 5548, and E1821 + 643, with correlation coefficients larger than 0.6. We show that the oscillatory patterns of two binary black hole candidates, NGC 5548 and E1821 + 643, correspond to qualitatively different dynamical regimes of chaos and stability, respectively. We demonstrate that the absence of oscillatory patterns in Arp 102B could be the result of a weak coupling between oscillatory mechanisms. This is the first good evidence that 3C 390.3 and Arp 102B, categorized as double-peaked Balmer line objects, have qualitative different dynamics. Our analysis shows a novelty in the oscillatory dynamical patterns of the light curves of these type 1 AGNs.

  6. Putting experience curves in context : links to and between technology development, market diffusion, learning mechanisms and systems innovation theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Junginger, M.; Suurs, R.; Verbong, G.P.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Sark, W. van; Faaij, A. xx

    2010-01-01

    As far as the experience curve approach goes, the focus is mainly on quantifying the cost reductions of the technological artefact (e.g. a wind turbine or biomass power plant) due to technological development. However, the experience curve by itself offers no explanation why costs should decline in

  7. NEW CONCEPTS AND TEST METHODS OF CURVE PROFILE AREA DENSITY IN SURFACE: ESTIMATION OF AREAL DENSITY ON CURVED SPATIAL SURFACE

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Shen

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of curve profile, curve intercept, curve intercept density, curve profile area density, intersection density in containing intersection (or intersection density relied on intersection reference), curve profile intersection density in surface (or curve intercept intersection density relied on intersection of containing curve), and curve profile area density in surface (AS) were defined. AS expressed the amount of curve profile area of Y phase in the unit containing surface area, S...

  8. Can a teaching assistant experience in a surgical anatomy course influence the learning curve for nontechnical skill development for surgical residents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidenreich, Mark J; Musonza, Tashinga; Pawlina, Wojciech; Lachman, Nirusha

    2016-01-01

    The foundation upon which surgical residents are trained to work comprises more than just critical cognitive, clinical, and technical skill. In an environment where the synchronous application of expertise is vital to patient outcomes, the expectation for optimal functioning within a multidisciplinary team is extremely high. Studies have shown that for most residents, one of the most difficult milestones in the path to achieving professional expertise in a surgical career is overcoming the learning curve. This view point commentary provides a reflection from the two senior medical students who have participated in the Student-as-Teacher program developed by the Department of Anatomy at Mayo Clinic, designed to prepare students for their teaching assistant (TA) role in anatomy courses. Both students participated as TAs in a six week surgical anatomy course for surgical first assistant students offered by the School of Health Sciences at Mayo Clinic. Development of teaching skills, nontechnical leadership, communication, and assessment skills, are discussed in relation to their benefits in preparing senior medical students for surgical residency. © 2015 American Association of Anatomists.

  9. M-curves and symmetric products

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Indranil Biswas

    2017-08-03

    Aug 3, 2017 ... is bounded above by g + 1, where g is the genus of X [11]. Curves which have exactly the maximum number (i.e., genus +1) of components of the real part are called M-curves. Classifying real algebraic curves up to homeomorphism is straightforward, however, classifying even planar non-singular real ...

  10. Precision Learning Assessment: An Alternative to Traditional Assessment Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caltagirone, Paul J.; Glover, Christopher E.

    1985-01-01

    A continuous and curriculum-based assessment method, Precision Learning Assessment (PLA), which integrates precision teaching and norm-referenced techniques, was applied to a math computation curriculum for 214 third graders. The resulting districtwide learning curves defining average annual progress through the computation curriculum provided…

  11. Undergraduate Student Self-Efficacy and Perceptions of Virtual World Learning Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, Lorraine May

    2017-01-01

    Virtual worlds are innovative teaching and learning methods that can provide immersive and engaging learning experiences (Lu, 2010). Though they have potential benefits, students sometimes experience a steep learning curve and discomfort with the technology (Warburton, 2009). This study explored how students in two American Studies classes using…

  12. Titration Curves: Fact and Fiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, John

    1997-01-01

    Discusses ways in which datalogging equipment can enable titration curves to be measured accurately and how computing power can be used to predict the shape of curves. Highlights include sources of error, use of spreadsheets to generate titration curves, titration of a weak acid with a strong alkali, dibasic acids, weak acid and weak base, and…

  13. Inverse Diffusion Curves Using Shape Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shuang; Durand, Fredo; Zheng, Changxi

    2018-07-01

    The inverse diffusion curve problem focuses on automatic creation of diffusion curve images that resemble user provided color fields. This problem is challenging since the 1D curves have a nonlinear and global impact on resulting color fields via a partial differential equation (PDE). We introduce a new approach complementary to previous methods by optimizing curve geometry. In particular, we propose a novel iterative algorithm based on the theory of shape derivatives. The resulting diffusion curves are clean and well-shaped, and the final image closely approximates the input. Our method provides a user-controlled parameter to regularize curve complexity, and generalizes to handle input color fields represented in a variety of formats.

  14. Retrograde curves of solidus and solubility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasil'ev, M.V.

    1979-01-01

    The investigation was concerned with the constitutional diagrams of the eutectic type with ''retrograde solidus'' and ''retrograde solubility curve'' which must be considered as diagrams with degenerate monotectic transformation. The solidus and the solubility curves form a retrograde curve with a common retrograde point representing the solubility maximum. The two branches of the Aetrograde curve can be described with the aid of two similar equations. Presented are corresponding equations for the Cd-Zn system and shown is the possibility of predicting the run of the solubility curve

  15. [Customized and non-customized French intrauterine growth curves. II - Comparison with existing curves and benefits of customization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ego, A; Prunet, C; Blondel, B; Kaminski, M; Goffinet, F; Zeitlin, J

    2016-02-01

    Our aim is to compare the new French EPOPé intrauterine growth curves, developed to address the guidelines 2013 of the French College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, with reference curves currently used in France, and to evaluate the consequences of their adjustment for fetal sex and maternal characteristics. Eight intrauterine and birthweight curves, used in France were compared to the EPOPé curves using data from the French Perinatal Survey 2010. The influence of adjustment on the rate of SGA births and the characteristics of these births was analysed. Due to their birthweight values and distribution, the selected intrauterine curves are less suitable for births in France than the new curves. Birthweight curves led to low rates of SGA births from 4.3 to 8.5% compared to 10.0% with the EPOPé curves. The adjustment for maternal and fetal characteristics avoids the over-representation of girls among SGA births, and reclassifies 4% of births. Among births reclassified as SGA, the frequency of medical and obstetrical risk factors for growth restriction, smoking (≥10 cigarettes/day), and neonatal transfer is higher than among non-SGA births (P<0.01). The EPOPé curves are more suitable for French births than currently used curves, and their adjustment improves the identification of mothers and babies at risk of growth restriction and poor perinatal outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  16. Reinforcement Learning of Linking and Tracing Contours in Recurrent Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosch, Tobias; Neumann, Heiko; Roelfsema, Pieter R.

    2015-01-01

    The processing of a visual stimulus can be subdivided into a number of stages. Upon stimulus presentation there is an early phase of feedforward processing where the visual information is propagated from lower to higher visual areas for the extraction of basic and complex stimulus features. This is followed by a later phase where horizontal connections within areas and feedback connections from higher areas back to lower areas come into play. In this later phase, image elements that are behaviorally relevant are grouped by Gestalt grouping rules and are labeled in the cortex with enhanced neuronal activity (object-based attention in psychology). Recent neurophysiological studies revealed that reward-based learning influences these recurrent grouping processes, but it is not well understood how rewards train recurrent circuits for perceptual organization. This paper examines the mechanisms for reward-based learning of new grouping rules. We derive a learning rule that can explain how rewards influence the information flow through feedforward, horizontal and feedback connections. We illustrate the efficiency with two tasks that have been used to study the neuronal correlates of perceptual organization in early visual cortex. The first task is called contour-integration and demands the integration of collinear contour elements into an elongated curve. We show how reward-based learning causes an enhancement of the representation of the to-be-grouped elements at early levels of a recurrent neural network, just as is observed in the visual cortex of monkeys. The second task is curve-tracing where the aim is to determine the endpoint of an elongated curve composed of connected image elements. If trained with the new learning rule, neural networks learn to propagate enhanced activity over the curve, in accordance with neurophysiological data. We close the paper with a number of model predictions that can be tested in future neurophysiological and computational studies

  17. V 1343 aquilae (SS 433) as a double-periodic star

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goranskij, V.P.

    1983-01-01

    The new computer method of double periodicity search earlier tested on the Blazhko effect in RR Lyrae type variable stars is applied to define more precise periods of brightness variability of the binary V 1343 Aql (SS 433). Computer program was used in the two-parameter search regime. The obtained periods are P 1 = 13sup(d).074+-0sup(d).008 and P 2 = 163sup(d).8+-1sup(d).2. The periodically repeating brithness curve deeps treated as primary minima (the accretion disc eclipsed by the star) vary their shape with the phase of period P 2 . The expected eclipse at 1979 October 16 did nor occur

  18. Extended analysis of cooling curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djurdjevic, M.B.; Kierkus, W.T.; Liliac, R.E.; Sokolowski, J.H.

    2002-01-01

    Thermal Analysis (TA) is the measurement of changes in a physical property of a material that is heated through a phase transformation temperature range. The temperature changes in the material are recorded as a function of the heating or cooling time in such a manner that allows for the detection of phase transformations. In order to increase accuracy, characteristic points on the cooling curve have been identified using the first derivative curve plotted versus time. In this paper, an alternative approach to the analysis of the cooling curve has been proposed. The first derivative curve has been plotted versus temperature and all characteristic points have been identified with the same accuracy achieved using the traditional method. The new cooling curve analysis also enables the Dendrite Coherency Point (DCP) to be detected using only one thermocouple. (author)

  19. Impact of Three-Dimensional Laparoscopy in a Bariatric Surgery Program: Influence in the Learning Curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padin, Esther Mariño; Santos, Raquel Sánchez; Fernández, Sonia González; Jimenez, Antonia Brox; Fernández, Sergio Estevez; Dacosta, Ester Carrera; Duran, Agata Rial; Artime Rial, Maria; Dominguez Sanchez, Ivan

    2017-10-01

    3D laparoscopy allows the surgeon to regain the sense of depth and improve accuracy. The aim of the study was to assess the impact of 3D in bariatric surgery. A retrospective cohort study was conducted. All our patients who underwent bariatric surgery (sleeve gastrectomy (SG) or gastric bypass (GB)) between 2013 and 2016 were included. We compared 3D laparoscopy cohort and 2D laparoscopy cohort. Variables are as follows: age, sex, DM, hypertension, surgeon experience, and type of intervention. Comparisons of operative time, hospital stay, conversion, complications, reoperation, and exitus are completed. Three hundred twelve consecutive patients were included. 56.9% of patients underwent GB and 43.1% SG. Global complications were 3.2% (fistula 2.5%, hemoperitoneum 0.3%, others 0.4%). One hundred four procedures were performed in the 3D cohort and 208 in the 2D cohort. The 2D cohort and 3D cohort were similar regarding the following: percentage of GB vs SG, age, gender, learning curve, diabetes mellitus 2, hypertension, and sleep apnea. The operating time and hospital stay were significantly reduced in the 3D cohort (144.07 ± 58.07 vs 172.11 ± 76.11 min and 5.12 ± 9.6 vs 7.7 ± 13.2 days. It was the same when we stratified the sample by type of surgery or experience of the surgeon. Complications were reduced in the 3D cohort in the surgeries performed by novice surgeons (10.2 vs 1.8%, p = 0.034). The use of 3D laparoscopy in bariatric surgery in our center has helped reducing the operating time and hospital stay, and improving the safety of the surgery, either in GB or SG, being equally favorable in novice or more experienced surgeons.

  20. Effect of land cover change on runoff curve number estimation in Iowa, 1832-2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehmeyer, Loren L.; Weirich, Frank H.; Cuffney, Thomas F.

    2011-01-01

    Within the first few decades of European-descended settlers arriving in Iowa, much of the land cover across the state was transformed from prairie and forest to farmland, patches of forest, and urbanized areas. Land cover change over the subsequent 126 years was minor in comparison. Between 1832 and 1859, the General Land Office conducted a survey of the State of Iowa to aid in the disbursement of land. In 1875, an illustrated atlas of the State of Iowa was published, and in 2001, the US Geological Survey National Land Cover Dataset was compiled. Using these three data resources for classifying land cover, the hydrologic impact of the land cover change at three points in time over a period of 132+ years is presented in terms of the effect on the area-weighted average curve number, a term commonly used to predict peak runoff from rainstorms. In the four watersheds studied, the area-weighted average curve number associated with the first 30 years of settlement increased from 61·4 to 77·8. State-wide mapped forest area over this same period decreased 19%. Over the next 126 years, the area-weighted average curve number decreased to 76·7, despite an additional forest area reduction of 60%. This suggests that degradation of aquatic resources (plants, fish, invertebrates, and habitat) arising from hydrologic alteration was likely to have been much higher during the 30 years of initial settlement than in the subsequent period of 126 years in which land cover changes resulted primarily from deforestation and urbanization. 

  1. Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling: A survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes

    2008-01-01

    This paper aims at providing an overview and a critical analysis of the technological learning concept and its incorporation in energy-environment-economy models. A special emphasis is put on surveying and discussing, through the so-called learning curve, both studies estimating learning rates in the energy field and studies incorporating endogenous technological learning in bottom-up and top-down models. The survey of learning rate estimations gives special attention to interpreting and explaining the sources of variability of estimated rates, which is shown to be mainly inherent in R and D expenditures, the problem of omitted variable bias, the endogeneity relationship and the role of spillovers. Large-scale models survey show that, despite some methodological and computational complexity related to the non-linearity and the non-convexity associated with the learning curve incorporation, results of the numerous modelling experiments give several new insights with regard to the analysis of the prospects of specific technological options and their cost decrease potential (bottom-up models), and with regard to the analysis of strategic considerations, especially inherent in the innovation and energy diffusion process, in particular the energy sector's endogenous responses to environment policy instruments (top-down models)

  2. Tempo curves considered harmful

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Desain, P.; Honing, H.

    1993-01-01

    In the literature of musicology, computer music research and the psychology of music, timing or tempo measurements are mostly presented in the form of continuous curves. The notion of these tempo curves is dangerous, despite its widespread use, because it lulls its users into the false impression

  3. Nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability: from curves to manifolds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The necessity of efficient dimensionality reduction methods capturing dynamical properties of the system from observed data is evident. Recent study shows that nonlinear dynamical mode (NDM) expansion is able to solve this problem and provide adequate phase variables in climate data analysis [1]. A single NDM is logical extension of linear spatio-temporal structure (like empirical orthogonal function pattern): it is constructed as nonlinear transformation of hidden scalar time series to the space of observed variables, i. e. projection of observed dataset onto a nonlinear curve. Both the hidden time series and the parameters of the curve are learned simultaneously using Bayesian approach. The only prior information about the hidden signal is the assumption of its smoothness. The optimal nonlinearity degree and smoothness are found using Bayesian evidence technique. In this work we do further extension and look for vector hidden signals instead of scalar with the same smoothness restriction. As a result we resolve multidimensional manifolds instead of sum of curves. The dimension of the hidden manifold is optimized using also Bayesian evidence. The efficiency of the extension is demonstrated on model examples. Results of application to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510

  4. Consequences of dietary energy source and energy level on energy balance, lactogenic hormones, and lactation curve characteristics of cows after a short or omitted dry period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hoeij, R J; Dijkstra, J; Bruckmaier, R M; Gross, J J; Lam, T J G M; Remmelink, G J; Kemp, B; van Knegsel, A T M

    2017-10-01

    Omitting the dry period (DP) generally reduces milk production in the subsequent lactation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of dietary energy source-glucogenic (G) or lipogenic (L)-and energy level-standard (std) or low-on milk production; energy balance (EB); lactogenic hormones insulin, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), and growth hormone (GH); and lactation curve characteristics between wk 1 and 44 postpartum in cows after a 0-d or 30-d DP. Cows (n = 110) were assigned randomly to 3 transition treatments: a 30-d DP with a standard energy level required for expected milk yield [30-d DP(std)], a 0-d DP with the same energy level as cows with a 30-d DP [0-d DP(std)], and a 0-d DP with a low energy level [0-d DP(low)]. In wk 1 to 7, cows were fed the same basal ration but the level of concentrate increased to 6.7 kg/d for cows fed the low energy level and to 8.5 kg/d for cows fed the standard energy level in wk 4. From wk 8 postpartum onward, cows received a G ration (mainly consisting of corn silage and grass silage) or an L ration (mainly consisting of grass silage and sugar beet pulp) with the same energy level contrast (low or std) as in early lactation. Cows fed the G ration had greater milk, lactose, and protein yields, lower milk fat percentage, greater dry matter and energy intakes, and greater plasma IGF-1 concentration compared with cows fed the L ration. Dietary energy source did not affect EB or lactation curve characteristics. In cows with a 0-d DP, the reduced energy level decreased energy intake, EB, and weekly body weight gain, but did not affect milk production or lactation curve characteristics. A 30-d DP resulted in a greater total predicted lactation yield, initial milk yield after calving, peak milk yield, energy intake, energy output in milk, days to conception [only when compared with 0-d DP(low)], plasma GH concentration [only when compared with 0-d DP(std)], and decreased weekly body weight gain compared with a 0-d DP. A

  5. The Properties of Long Period Variables in the LMC from MACHO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraser, O J; Hawley, S L; Cook, K H

    2008-05-06

    We present a new analysis of the long period variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud from the MACHO Variable Star Catalog. Three-quarters of our sample of evolved, variable stars have periodic light curves. We characterize the stars in our sample using the multiple periods found in their frequency spectra. Additionally, we use single-epoch 2MASS measurements to construct the average infrared light curves for different groups of these stars. Comparison with evolutionary models shows that stars on the RGB or the Early AGB often show non-periodic variability, but begin to pulsate with periods on the two shortest period-luminosity sequences (1 & 2) when they brighten to K{sub s} {approx} 13. The stars on the Thermally Pulsing AGB are more likely to pulsate with longer periods that lie on the next two P-L sequences (3 & 4), including the sequence associated with the Miras in the LMC. The Petersen diagram and its variants show that multi-periodic stars on each pair of these sequences (3 & 4, and 1 & 2), typically pulsate with periods associated only with that pair. The periods in these multi-periodic stars become longer and stronger as the star evolves. We further constrain the mechanism behind the long secondary periods (LSPs) seen in half of our sample, and find that there is a close match between the luminosity functions of the LSP stars and all of the stars in our sample, and that these star's pulsation amplitudes are relatively wavelength independent. Although this is characteristic of stellar multiplicity, the large number of these variables is problematic for that explanation.

  6. Searching for transits in the WTS with the difference imaging light curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zendejas Dominguez, Jesus

    2013-12-01

    The search for exo-planets is currently one of the most exiting and active topics in astronomy. Small and rocky planets are particularly the subject of intense research, since if they are suitably located from their host star, they may be warm and potentially habitable worlds. On the other hand, the discovery of giant planets in short-period orbits provides important constraints on models that describe planet formation and orbital migration theories. Several projects are dedicated to discover and characterize planets outside of our solar system. Among them, the Wide-Field Camera Transit Survey (WTS) is a pioneer program aimed to search for extra-solar planets, that stands out for its particular aims and methodology. The WTS has been in operation since August 2007 with observations from the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope, and represents the first survey that searches for transiting planets in the near-infrared wavelengths; hence the WTS is designed to discover planets around M-dwarfs. The survey was originally assigned about 200 nights, observing four fields that were selected seasonally (RA = 03, 07, 17 and 19h) during a year. The images from the survey are processed by a data reduction pipeline, which uses aperture photometry to construct the light curves. For the most complete field (19h-1145 epochs) in the survey, we produce an alternative set of light curves by using the method of difference imaging, which is a photometric technique that has shown important advantages when used in crowded fields. A quantitative comparison between the photometric precision achieved with both methods is carried out in this work. We remove systematic effects using the sysrem algorithm, scale the error bars on the light curves, and perform a comparison of the corrected light curves. The results show that the aperture photometry light curves provide slightly better precision for objects with J detect transits in the WTS light curves, we use a modified version of the box

  7. Explicit and Implicit Processes Constitute the Fast and Slow Processes of Sensorimotor Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougle, Samuel D; Bond, Krista M; Taylor, Jordan A

    2015-07-01

    A popular model of human sensorimotor learning suggests that a fast process and a slow process work in parallel to produce the canonical learning curve (Smith et al., 2006). Recent evidence supports the subdivision of sensorimotor learning into explicit and implicit processes that simultaneously subserve task performance (Taylor et al., 2014). We set out to test whether these two accounts of learning processes are homologous. Using a recently developed method to assay explicit and implicit learning directly in a sensorimotor task, along with a computational modeling analysis, we show that the fast process closely resembles explicit learning and the slow process approximates implicit learning. In addition, we provide evidence for a subdivision of the slow/implicit process into distinct manifestations of motor memory. We conclude that the two-state model of motor learning is a close approximation of sensorimotor learning, but it is unable to describe adequately the various implicit learning operations that forge the learning curve. Our results suggest that a wider net be cast in the search for the putative psychological mechanisms and neural substrates underlying the multiplicity of processes involved in motor learning. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/359568-12$15.00/0.

  8. Power of tests for comparing trend curves with application to national immunization survey (NIS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhen

    2011-02-28

    To develop statistical tests for comparing trend curves of study outcomes between two socio-demographic strata across consecutive time points, and compare statistical power of the proposed tests under different trend curves data, three statistical tests were proposed. For large sample size with independent normal assumption among strata and across consecutive time points, the Z and Chi-square test statistics were developed, which are functions of outcome estimates and the standard errors at each of the study time points for the two strata. For small sample size with independent normal assumption, the F-test statistic was generated, which is a function of sample size of the two strata and estimated parameters across study period. If two trend curves are approximately parallel, the power of Z-test is consistently higher than that of both Chi-square and F-test. If two trend curves cross at low interaction, the power of Z-test is higher than or equal to the power of both Chi-square and F-test; however, at high interaction, the powers of Chi-square and F-test are higher than that of Z-test. The measurement of interaction of two trend curves was defined. These tests were applied to the comparison of trend curves of vaccination coverage estimates of standard vaccine series with National Immunization Survey (NIS) 2000-2007 data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. 12000 rotation periods of Kepler stars (Nielsen+, 2013)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, M. B.; Gizon, L.; Schunker, H.

    2013-01-01

    Rotation periods of 12253 stars in the Kepler field. The periods are determined by the brightness variations, from star spots or active regions, in the light curves of the white light photometry obtained by the Kepler spacecraft. The median absolute deviation from the median (MAD) of the periods...... shows the scatter of periods for each star, over 6 or more (out of 8 analyzed) Kepler quarters. The g-r color index, E(B-V), radius, surface gravity, and effective temperature are from the Kepler Input Catalog (KIC). Column 9 (TF) indicates whether or not the msMAP data for a given star satisfies...... the selection criteria described in section 2. Of these, there are 86 stars with periods from the msMAP data that differ from the period derived from the PDCMAP data by more than one frequency resolution element (1/90d-1). For these stars the msMAP periods are therefore given in column 10 as a none-zero value...

  10. Image scaling curve generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2012-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then

  11. Image scaling curve generation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2011-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then

  12. Internal resonances in periodically modulated long Josephson junctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Britt Hvolbæk; Mygind, Jesper; Ustinov, Alexey V.

    1995-01-01

    Current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of long Josephson junctions with a periodic lattice of localized inhomogeneities are studied. The interaction between the moving fluxons and the inhomogeneities causes resonant steps in the IV-curve. Some of these steps are due to a synchronization to resonant...... Fiske modes in the sub-junctions formed between the inhomogeneities. The voltage positions of the resonant steps oscillate as function of the applied magnetic field with a period corresponding to the inclusion of one magnetic flux quantum, Φ0=h/2e, per sub-junction. A qualitative explanation that takes...

  13. Anterior Overgrowth in Primary Curves, Compensatory Curves and Junctional Segments in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlösser, Tom P C; van Stralen, Marijn; Chu, Winnie C W; Lam, Tsz-Ping; Ng, Bobby K W; Vincken, Koen L; Cheng, Jack C Y; Castelein, René M

    2016-01-01

    Although much attention has been given to the global three-dimensional aspect of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), the accurate three-dimensional morphology of the primary and compensatory curves, as well as the intervening junctional segments, in the scoliotic spine has not been described before. A unique series of 77 AIS patients with high-resolution CT scans of the spine, acquired for surgical planning purposes, were included and compared to 22 healthy controls. Non-idiopathic curves were excluded. Endplate segmentation and local longitudinal axis in endplate plane enabled semi-automatic geometric analysis of the complete three-dimensional morphology of the spine, taking inter-vertebral rotation, intra-vertebral torsion and coronal and sagittal tilt into account. Intraclass correlation coefficients for interobserver reliability were 0.98-1.00. Coronal deviation, axial rotation and the exact length discrepancies in the reconstructed sagittal plane, as defined per vertebra and disc, were analyzed for each primary and compensatory curve as well as for the junctional segments in-between. The anterior-posterior difference of spinal length, based on "true" anterior and posterior points on endplates, was +3.8% for thoracic and +9.4% for (thoraco)lumbar curves, while the junctional segments were almost straight. This differed significantly from control group thoracic kyphosis (-4.1%; P<0.001) and lumbar lordosis (+7.8%; P<0.001). For all primary as well as compensatory curves, we observed linear correlations between the coronal Cobb angle, axial rotation and the anterior-posterior length difference (r≥0.729 for thoracic curves; r≥0.485 for (thoraco)lumbar curves). Excess anterior length of the spine in AIS has been described as a generalized growth disturbance, causing relative anterior spinal overgrowth. This study is the first to demonstrate that this anterior overgrowth is not a generalized phenomenon. It is confined to the primary as well as the

  14. Development of a statistically-based lower bound fracture toughness curve (Ksub(IR) curve)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wullaert, R.A.; Server, W.L.; Oldfield, W.; Stahlkopf, K.E.

    1977-01-01

    A program of initiation fracture toughness measurements on fifty heats of nuclear pressure vessel production materials (including weldments) was used to develop a methodology for establishing a revised reference toughness curve. The new methodology was statistically developed and provides a predefined confidence limit (or tolerance limit) for fracture toughness based upon many heats of a particular type of material. Overall reference curves were developed for seven specific materials using large specimen static and dynamic fracture toughness results. The heat-to-heat variation was removed by normalizing both the fracture toughness and temperature data with the precracked Charpy tanh curve coefficients for each particular heat. The variance and distribution about the curve were determined, and lower bounds of predetermined statistical significance were drawn based upon a Pearson distribution in the lower shelf region (since the data were skewed to high values) and a t-distribution in the transition temperature region (since the data were normally distributed)

  15. PHOTOMETRIC SUPERNOVA CLASSIFICATION WITH MACHINE LEARNING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lochner, Michelle; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Lahav, Ofer; Winter, Max K. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); McEwen, Jason D., E-mail: dr.michelle.lochner@gmail.com [Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Surrey RH5 6NT (United Kingdom)

    2016-08-01

    Automated photometric supernova classification has become an active area of research in recent years in light of current and upcoming imaging surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, given that spectroscopic confirmation of type for all supernovae discovered will be impossible. Here, we develop a multi-faceted classification pipeline, combining existing and new approaches. Our pipeline consists of two stages: extracting descriptive features from the light curves and classification using a machine learning algorithm. Our feature extraction methods vary from model-dependent techniques, namely SALT2 fits, to more independent techniques that fit parametric models to curves, to a completely model-independent wavelet approach. We cover a range of representative machine learning algorithms, including naive Bayes, k -nearest neighbors, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and boosted decision trees (BDTs). We test the pipeline on simulated multi-band DES light curves from the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge. Using the commonly used area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic as a metric, we find that the SALT2 fits and the wavelet approach, with the BDTs algorithm, each achieve an AUC of 0.98, where 1 represents perfect classification. We find that a representative training set is essential for good classification, whatever the feature set or algorithm, with implications for spectroscopic follow-up. Importantly, we find that by using either the SALT2 or the wavelet feature sets with a BDT algorithm, accurate classification is possible purely from light curve data, without the need for any redshift information.

  16. PHOTOMETRIC SUPERNOVA CLASSIFICATION WITH MACHINE LEARNING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochner, Michelle; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Lahav, Ofer; Winter, Max K.; McEwen, Jason D.

    2016-01-01

    Automated photometric supernova classification has become an active area of research in recent years in light of current and upcoming imaging surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, given that spectroscopic confirmation of type for all supernovae discovered will be impossible. Here, we develop a multi-faceted classification pipeline, combining existing and new approaches. Our pipeline consists of two stages: extracting descriptive features from the light curves and classification using a machine learning algorithm. Our feature extraction methods vary from model-dependent techniques, namely SALT2 fits, to more independent techniques that fit parametric models to curves, to a completely model-independent wavelet approach. We cover a range of representative machine learning algorithms, including naive Bayes, k -nearest neighbors, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and boosted decision trees (BDTs). We test the pipeline on simulated multi-band DES light curves from the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge. Using the commonly used area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic as a metric, we find that the SALT2 fits and the wavelet approach, with the BDTs algorithm, each achieve an AUC of 0.98, where 1 represents perfect classification. We find that a representative training set is essential for good classification, whatever the feature set or algorithm, with implications for spectroscopic follow-up. Importantly, we find that by using either the SALT2 or the wavelet feature sets with a BDT algorithm, accurate classification is possible purely from light curve data, without the need for any redshift information.

  17. Internationalisation and performance in Spanish family SMES: The W-curve

    OpenAIRE

    Marta Fernández-Olmos; Ana Gargallo-Castel; Enrique Giner-Bagües

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have provided mixed evidence on the relationship between internationalisation and firm performance. We advance theoretically in this line of research by investigating the impact of the family dimension of a business on this relationship. Using a panel data analysis for the 2006–2011 period, we find empirically that Spanish family SMEs follow a W-curve. Our findings highlight the importance of differentiating family from non-family firms, and provide a potential explanation fo...

  18. A note on families of fragility curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.; Bier, V.M.; Bley, D.C.

    1989-01-01

    In the quantitative assessment of seismic risk, uncertainty in the fragility of a structural component is usually expressed by putting forth a family of fragility curves, with probability serving as the parameter of the family. Commonly, a lognormal shape is used both for the individual curves and for the expression of uncertainty over the family. A so-called composite single curve can also be drawn and used for purposes of approximation. This composite curve is often regarded as equivalent to the mean curve of the family. The equality seems intuitively reasonable, but according to the authors has never been proven. The paper presented proves this equivalence hypothesis mathematically. Moreover, the authors show that this equivalence hypothesis between fragility curves is itself equivalent to an identity property of the standard normal probability curve. Thus, in the course of proving the fragility curve hypothesis, the authors have also proved a rather obscure, but interesting and perhaps previously unrecognized, property of the standard normal curve

  19. MICA: Multiple interval-based curve alignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Martin; Kahle, Hans-Peter; Beck, Matthias; Bender, Bela Johannes; Spiecker, Heinrich; Backofen, Rolf

    2018-01-01

    MICA enables the automatic synchronization of discrete data curves. To this end, characteristic points of the curves' shapes are identified. These landmarks are used within a heuristic curve registration approach to align profile pairs by mapping similar characteristics onto each other. In combination with a progressive alignment scheme, this enables the computation of multiple curve alignments. Multiple curve alignments are needed to derive meaningful representative consensus data of measured time or data series. MICA was already successfully applied to generate representative profiles of tree growth data based on intra-annual wood density profiles or cell formation data. The MICA package provides a command-line and graphical user interface. The R interface enables the direct embedding of multiple curve alignment computation into larger analyses pipelines. Source code, binaries and documentation are freely available at https://github.com/BackofenLab/MICA

  20. Power forward curves: a managerial perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagarajan, Shankar

    1999-01-01

    This chapter concentrates on managerial application of power forward curves, and examines the determinants of electricity prices such as transmission constraints, its inability to be stored in a conventional way, its seasonality and weather dependence, the generation stack, and the swing risk. The electricity forward curve, classical arbitrage, constructing a forward curve, volatilities, and electricity forward curve models such as the jump-diffusion model, the mean-reverting heteroscedastic volatility model, and an econometric model of forward prices are examined. A managerial perspective of the applications of the forward curve is presented covering plant valuation, capital budgeting, performance measurement, product pricing and structuring, asset optimisation, valuation of transmission options, and risk management