Development of computational infrastructure to support hyper-resolution large-ensemble hydrology simulations from local-to-continental scales

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Development of computational infrastructure to support hyper-resolution large-ensemble hydrology simulations from local-to-continental scales A move is currently...

Using GRACE Satellite Gravimetry for Assessing Large-Scale Hydrologic Extremes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Y. Sun

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Global assessment of the spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial total water storage anomalies (TWSA in response to hydrologic extremes is critical for water resources management. Using TWSA derived from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE satellites, this study systematically assessed the skill of the TWSA-climatology (TC approach and breakpoint (BP detection method for identifying large-scale hydrologic extremes. The TC approach calculates standardized anomalies by using the mean and standard deviation of the GRACE TWSA corresponding to each month. In the BP detection method, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD is first applied to identify the mean return period of TWSA extremes, and then a statistical procedure is used to identify the actual occurrence times of abrupt changes (i.e., BPs in TWSA. Both detection methods were demonstrated on basin-averaged TWSA time series for the world’s 35 largest river basins. A nonlinear event coincidence analysis measure was applied to cross-examine abrupt changes detected by these methods with those detected by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Results show that our EMD-assisted BP procedure is a promising tool for identifying hydrologic extremes using GRACE TWSA data. Abrupt changes detected by the BP method coincide well with those of the SPI anomalies and with documented hydrologic extreme events. Event timings obtained by the TC method were ambiguous for a number of river basins studied, probably because the GRACE data length is too short to derive long-term climatology at this time. The BP approach demonstrates a robust wet-dry anomaly detection capability, which will be important for applications with the upcoming GRACE Follow-On mission.

Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

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Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

2010-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

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Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-11-15

Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on

Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Krysanova, Valentina; Vetter, Tobias; Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Strauch, Michael; Gelfan, Alexander; Kumar, Rohini; Aich, Valentin; Arheimer, Berit; Chamorro, Alejandro; van Griensven, Ann; Kundu, Dipangkar; Lobanova, Anastasia; Mishra, Vimal; Plötner, Stefan; Reinhardt, Julia; Seidou, Ousmane; Wang, Xiaoyan; Wortmann, Michel; Zeng, Xiaofan; Hattermann, Fred F.

2017-10-01

An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971-2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070-2099 in relation to the reference period 1975-2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins

Small scale green infrastructure design to meet different urban hydrological criteria.

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Jia, Z; Tang, S; Luo, W; Li, S; Zhou, M

2016-04-15

As small scale green infrastructures, rain gardens have been widely advocated for urban stormwater management in the contemporary low impact development (LID) era. This paper presents a simple method that consists of hydrological models and the matching plots of nomographs to provide an informative and practical tool for rain garden sizing and hydrological evaluation. The proposed method considers design storms, infiltration rates and the runoff contribution area ratio of the rain garden, allowing users to size a rain garden for a specific site with hydrological reference and predict overflow of the rain garden under different storms. The nomographs provide a visual presentation on the sensitivity of different design parameters. Subsequent application of the proposed method to a case study conducted in a sub-humid region in China showed that, the method accurately predicted the design storms for the existing rain garden, the predicted overflows under large storm events were within 13-50% of the measured volumes. The results suggest that the nomographs approach is a practical tool for quick selection or assessment of design options that incorporate key hydrological parameters of rain gardens or other infiltration type green infrastructure. The graphic approach as displayed by the nomographs allow urban planners to demonstrate the hydrological effect of small scale green infrastructure and gain more support for promoting low impact development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-scale hydrological modelling and decision-making for sustainable water and land management along the Tarim River

OpenAIRE

Yu, Yang

2017-01-01

The debate over the effectiveness of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in practice has lasted for years. As the complexity and scope of IWRM increases in practice, it is difficult for hydrological models to directly simulate the interactions among water, ecosystem and humans. This study presents the large-scale hydrological modeling (MIKE HYDRO) approach and a Decision Support System (DSS) for decision-making with stakeholders on the sustainable water and land management along the ...

A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large-scale ice sheet models

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S. Goeller

2013-07-01

Full Text Available There is currently no doubt about the existence of a widespread hydrological network under the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux–basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large scale ice sheet models

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Goeller, S.; Thoma, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Miller, H.

2012-12-01

There is currently no doubt about the existence of a wide-spread hydrological network under the Antarctic ice sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain inspired by the Gamburtsev Mountains, Antarctica. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux-basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out, that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

Impact of spatio-temporal scale of adjustment on variational assimilation of hydrologic and hydrometeorological data in operational distributed hydrologic models

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Lee, H.; Seo, D.; McKee, P.; Corby, R.

2009-12-01

One of the large challenges in data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is to reduce the large degrees of freedom involved in the inverse problem to avoid overfitting. To assess the sensitivity of the performance of DA to the dimensionality of the inverse problem, we design and carry out real-world experiments in which the control vector in variational DA (VAR) is solved at different scales in space and time, e.g., lumped, semi-distributed, and fully-distributed in space, and hourly, 6 hourly, etc., in time. The size of the control vector is related to the degrees of freedom in the inverse problem. For the assessment, we use the prototype 4-dimenational variational data assimilator (4DVAR) that assimilates streamflow, precipitation and potential evaporation data into the NWS Hydrology Laboratory’s Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). In this talk, we present the initial results for a number of basins in Oklahoma and Texas.

Impacts of forest changes on hydrology: a case study of large watersheds in the upper reach of Yangtze River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, X.; Liu, S.; Wei, X.

2012-05-01

Quantifying the effects of forest changes on hydrology in large watersheds is important for designing forest or land management and adaptation strategies for watershed ecosystem sustainability. Minjiang River watershed located in the upper reach of the Yangtze River Basin plays a strategic role in environmental protection and economic and social wellbeing for both the watershed and the entire Yangtze Basin. The watershed lies in the transition zone from Sichuan Basin to Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with a size of 24 000 km2. Due to its strategic significance, severe historic deforestation and high sensitivity to climate change, the watershed has long been one of the highest priority watersheds in China for scientific research and resource management. The purpose of this review paper is to provide a state-of-the-art summary on what we have learned from several recently-completed research programs (one of them known as "973 of the China National Major Fundamental Science" with funding of 3.5 million USD in 2002 to 2008). This summary paper focused on how land cover or forest change affected hydrology at both forest stand and watershed scales in this large watershed. Inclusion of two different spatial scales is useful because the results from a small spatial scale (e.g. forest stand level) can help interpret the findings at a large spatial scale. Our review suggests that historic forest harvesting or land cover change has caused significant water increase due to reduction of forest canopy interception and evapotranspiration caused by removal of forest vegetation at both spatial scales. The impact magnitudes caused by forest harvesting indicate that the hydrological effects of forest or land cover changes can be as important as those caused by climate change, while the opposite impact directions suggest their offsetting effects on water yields in the Minjiang River watershed. In addition, different types of forests have different magnitudes of ET with old-growth natural

Obtaining high-resolution stage forecasts by coupling large-scale hydrologic models with sensor data

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Fries, K. J.; Kerkez, B.

2017-12-01

We investigate how "big" quantities of distributed sensor data can be coupled with a large-scale hydrologic model, in particular the National Water Model (NWM), to obtain hyper-resolution forecasts. The recent launch of the NWM provides a great example of how growing computational capacity is enabling a new generation of massive hydrologic models. While the NWM spans an unprecedented spatial extent, there remain many questions about how to improve forecast at the street-level, the resolution at which many stakeholders make critical decisions. Further, the NWM runs on supercomputers, so water managers who may have access to their own high-resolution measurements may not readily be able to assimilate them into the model. To that end, we ask the question: how can the advances of the large-scale NWM be coupled with new local observations to enable hyper-resolution hydrologic forecasts? A methodology is proposed whereby the flow forecasts of the NWM are directly mapped to high-resolution stream levels using Dynamical System Identification. We apply the methodology across a sensor network of 182 gages in Iowa. Of these sites, approximately one third have shown to perform well in high-resolution flood forecasting when coupled with the outputs of the NWM. The quality of these forecasts is characterized using Principal Component Analysis and Random Forests to identify where the NWM may benefit from new sources of local observations. We also discuss how this approach can help municipalities identify where they should place low-cost sensors to most benefit from flood forecasts of the NWM.

Large-scale hydrological modelling in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guentner, A

2002-09-01

Semi-arid areas are characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand due to population growth and economic development as well as a possible decreasing water availability in the course of climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future in these areas. The quantitative assessment of the water resources is a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management. For this task, hydrological models within a dynamic integrated framework are indispensable tools. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments. The study area is the Federal State of Ceara in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Surface water from reservoirs provides the largest part of water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions. (orig.)

Effect of Integrating Hydrologic Scaling Concepts on Students Learning and Decision Making Experiences

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Najm, Majdi R. Abou; Mohtar, Rabi H.; Cherkauer, Keith A.; French, Brian F.

2010-01-01

Proper understanding of scaling and large-scale hydrologic processes is often not explicitly incorporated in the teaching curriculum. This makes it difficult for students to connect the effect of small scale processes and properties (like soil texture and structure, aggregation, shrinkage, and cracking) on large scale hydrologic responses (like…

Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss

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Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine

2018-01-01

Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1-4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (`peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.

The use of remotely sensed soil moisture data in large-scale models of the hydrological cycle

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Salomonson, V. V.; Gurney, R. J.; Schmugge, T. J.

1985-01-01

Manabe (1982) has reviewed numerical simulations of the atmosphere which provided a framework within which an examination of the dynamics of the hydrological cycle could be conducted. It was found that the climate is sensitive to soil moisture variability in space and time. The challenge arises now to improve the observations of soil moisture so as to provide up-dated boundary condition inputs to large scale models including the hydrological cycle. Attention is given to details regarding the significance of understanding soil moisture variations, soil moisture estimation using remote sensing, and energy and moisture balance modeling.

Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

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Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

2017-12-01

Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface

A review of continent scale hydrological datasets available for Africa

OpenAIRE

Bonsor, H.C.

2010-01-01

As rainfall becomes less reliable with predicted climate change the ability to assess the spatial and seasonal variations in groundwater availability on a large-scale (catchment and continent) is becoming increasingly important (Bates, et al. 2007; MacDonald et al. 2009). The scarcity of observed hydrological data, or difficulty in obtaining such data, within Africa means remotely sensed (RS) datasets must often be used to drive large-scale hydrological models. The different ap...

Micro-scale hydrological field experiments in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minea Gabriel

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The paper (communication presents an overview of hydrologic field experiments at micro-scale in Romania. In order to experimentally investigate micro (plot-scale hydrological impact of soil erosion, the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management founded Voineşti Experimental Basin (VES in 1964 and the Aldeni Experimental Basins (AEB in 1984. AEB and VES are located in the Curvature Subcarpathians. Experimental plots are organized in a double systems and have an area of 80 m2 (runoff plots at AEB and 300 m2 (water balance plots at VES. Land use of plot: first plot ”grass-land” is covered with perennial grass and second plot (control consists in ”bare soil”. Over the latter one, the soil is hoeing, which results in a greater development of infiltration than in the first plot. Experimental investigations at micro-scale are aimed towards determining the parameters of the water balance equation, during natural and artificial rainfalls, researching of flows and soil erosion processes on experimental plots, extrapolating relations involving runoff coefficients from a small scale to medium scale. Nowadays, the latest evolutions in data acquisition and transmission equipment are represented by sensors (such as: sensors to determinate the soil moisture content. Exploitation and dissemination of hydrologic data is accomplished by research themes/projects, year-books of basic data and papers.

Integrating an agent-based model into a large-scale hydrological model for evaluating drought management in California

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Wada, Y.; Burek, P.; Kahil, M.; Wood, E. F.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

California has endured record-breaking drought since winter 2011 and will likely experience more severe and persistent drought in the coming decades under changing climate. At the same time, human water management practices can also affect drought frequency and intensity, which underscores the importance of human behaviour in effective drought adaptation and mitigation. Currently, although a few large-scale hydrological and water resources models (e.g., PCR-GLOBWB) consider human water use and management practices (e.g., irrigation, reservoir operation, groundwater pumping), none of them includes the dynamic feedback between local human behaviors/decisions and the natural hydrological system. It is, therefore, vital to integrate social and behavioral dimensions into current hydrological modeling frameworks. This study applies the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach and couples it with a large-scale hydrological model (i.e., Community Water Model, CWatM) in order to have a balanced representation of social, environmental and economic factors and a more realistic representation of the bi-directional interactions and feedbacks in coupled human and natural systems. In this study, we focus on drought management in California and considers two types of agents, which are (groups of) farmers and state management authorities, and assumed that their corresponding objectives are to maximize the net crop profit and to maintain sufficient water supply, respectively. Farmers' behaviors are linked with local agricultural practices such as cropping patterns and deficit irrigation. More precisely, farmers' decisions are incorporated into CWatM across different time scales in terms of daily irrigation amount, seasonal/annual decisions on crop types and irrigated area as well as the long-term investment of irrigation infrastructure. This simulation-based optimization framework is further applied by performing different sets of scenarios to investigate and evaluate the effectiveness

Modeling the Hydrologic Effects of Large-Scale Green Infrastructure Projects with GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Bado, R. A.; Fekete, B. M.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Impervious surfaces in urban areas generate excess runoff, which in turn causes flooding, combined sewer overflows, and degradation of adjacent surface waters. Municipal environmental protection agencies have shown a growing interest in mitigating these effects with 'green' infrastructure practices that partially restore the perviousness and water holding capacity of urban centers. Assessment of the performance of current and future green infrastructure projects is hindered by the lack of adequate hydrological modeling tools; conventional techniques fail to account for the complex flow pathways of urban environments, and detailed analyses are difficult to prepare for the very large domains in which green infrastructure projects are implemented. Currently, no standard toolset exists that can rapidly and conveniently predict runoff, consequent inundations, and sewer overflows at a city-wide scale. We demonstrate how streamlined modeling techniques can be used with open-source GIS software to efficiently model runoff in large urban catchments. Hydraulic parameters and flow paths through city blocks, roadways, and sewer drains are automatically generated from GIS layers, and ultimately urban flow simulations can be executed for a variety of rainfall conditions. With this methodology, users can understand the implications of large-scale land use changes and green/gray storm water retention systems on hydraulic loading, peak flow rates, and runoff volumes.

Large-scale impact cratering on the terrestrial planets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grieve, R.A.F.

1982-01-01

The crater densities on the earth and moon form the basis for a standard flux-time curve that can be used in dating unsampled planetary surfaces and constraining the temporal history of endogenic geologic processes. Abundant evidence is seen not only that impact cratering was an important surface process in planetary history but also that large imapact events produced effects that were crucial in scale. By way of example, it is noted that the formation of multiring basins on the early moon was as important in defining the planetary tectonic framework as plate tectonics is on the earth. Evidence from several planets suggests that the effects of very-large-scale impacts go beyond the simple formation of an impact structure and serve to localize increased endogenic activity over an extended period of geologic time. Even though no longer occurring with the frequency and magnitude of early solar system history, it is noted that large scale impact events continue to affect the local geology of the planets. 92 references

Impacts of forest changes on hydrology: a case study of large watersheds in the upper reaches of Minjiang River watershed in China

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, X.; Liu, S.; Wei, X.

2012-11-01

Quantifying the effects of forest changes on hydrology in large watersheds is important for designing forest or land management and adaptation strategies for watershed ecosystem sustainability. Minjiang River watershed, located in the upper reach of the Yangtze River basin, plays a strategic role in the environmental protection and economic and social well-being for both the watershed and the entire Yangtze River basin. The watershed lies in the transition zone from Sichuan Basin to Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with a size of 24 000 km2. Due to its strategic significance, severe historic deforestation and high sensitivity to climate change, the watershed has long been recognized as one of the highest priority watersheds in China for scientific research and resource management. The purpose of this review paper is to provide a state-of-the-art summary on what we have learned from several recently completed research programs (one of them known as "973 of the China National Major Fundamental Science" from 2002 to 2008). This summary paper focused on how land cover or forest change affected hydrology at both forest stand and watershed scales in this large watershed. Inclusion of two different spatial scales is useful, because the results from a small spatial scale (e.g. forest stand level) can help interpret the findings on a large spatial scale. Our review suggests that historic forest harvesting or land cover change has caused significant water yield increase due to reduction of forest canopy interception and evapotranspiration caused by removal of forest vegetation on both spatial scales. The impact magnitude caused by forest harvesting indicates that the hydrological effects of forest or land cover changes can be as important as those caused by climate change, while the opposite impact directions suggest their offsetting effects on water yield in the Minjiang River watershed. In addition, different types of forests have different magnitudes of evapotranspiration (ET), with

Impacts of forest changes on hydrology: a case study of large watersheds in the upper reaches of Minjiang River watershed in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Cui

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Quantifying the effects of forest changes on hydrology in large watersheds is important for designing forest or land management and adaptation strategies for watershed ecosystem sustainability. Minjiang River watershed, located in the upper reach of the Yangtze River basin, plays a strategic role in the environmental protection and economic and social well-being for both the watershed and the entire Yangtze River basin. The watershed lies in the transition zone from Sichuan Basin to Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with a size of 24 000 km². Due to its strategic significance, severe historic deforestation and high sensitivity to climate change, the watershed has long been recognized as one of the highest priority watersheds in China for scientific research and resource management. The purpose of this review paper is to provide a state-of-the-art summary on what we have learned from several recently completed research programs (one of them known as "973 of the China National Major Fundamental Science" from 2002 to 2008. This summary paper focused on how land cover or forest change affected hydrology at both forest stand and watershed scales in this large watershed. Inclusion of two different spatial scales is useful, because the results from a small spatial scale (e.g. forest stand level can help interpret the findings on a large spatial scale. Our review suggests that historic forest harvesting or land cover change has caused significant water yield increase due to reduction of forest canopy interception and evapotranspiration caused by removal of forest vegetation on both spatial scales. The impact magnitude caused by forest harvesting indicates that the hydrological effects of forest or land cover changes can be as important as those caused by climate change, while the opposite impact directions suggest their offsetting effects on water yield in the Minjiang River watershed. In addition, different types of forests have different magnitudes of

Atmospheric Rivers across Multi-scales of the Hydrologic cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, H.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are defined as filamentary structures with strong water vapor transport in the atmosphere, moving as much water as is discharged by the Amazon River. As a large-scale phenomenon, ARs are embedded in the planetary-scale Rossby waves and account for the majority of poleward moisture transport in the midlatitudes. On the other hand, AR is the fundamental physical mechanism leading to extreme basin-scale precipitation and flooding over the U.S. West Coast in the winter season. The moisture transported by ARs is forced to rise and generate precipitation when it impinges on the mountainous coastal lands. My goal is to build the connection between the multi-scale features associated with ARs with their impacts on local hydrology, with particular focus on the U.S. West Coast. Moving across the different scales I have: (1) examined the planetary-scale dynamics in the upper-troposphere, and established a robust relationship between the two regimes of Rossby wave breaking and AR-precipitation and streamflow along the West Coast; (2) quantified the contribution from the tropics/subtropics to AR-related precipitation intensity and found a significant modulation from the large-scale thermodynamics; (3) developed a water tracer tool in a land surface model to track the lifecycle of the water collected from AR precipitation over the terrestrial system, so that the role of catchment-scale factors in modulating ARs' hydrological consequences could be examined. Ultimately, the information gather from these studies will indicate how the dynamic and thermodynamic changes as a response to climate change could affect the local flooding and water resource, which would be helpful in decision making.

Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Koster, Randal D.

1999-01-01

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

A Watershed Scale Life Cycle Assessment Framework for Hydrologic Design

Science.gov (United States)

Tavakol-Davani, H.; Tavakol-Davani, PhD, H.; Burian, S. J.

2017-12-01

Sustainable hydrologic design has received attention from researchers with different backgrounds, including hydrologists and sustainability experts, recently. On one hand, hydrologists have been analyzing ways to achieve hydrologic goals through implementation of recent environmentally-friendly approaches, e.g. Green Infrastructure (GI) - without quantifying the life cycle environmental impacts of the infrastructure through the ISO Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method. On the other hand, sustainability experts have been applying the LCA to study the life cycle impacts of water infrastructure - without considering the important hydrologic aspects through hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) analysis. In fact, defining proper system elements for a watershed scale urban water sustainability study requires both H&H and LCA specialties, which reveals the necessity of performing an integrated, interdisciplinary study. Therefore, the present study developed a watershed scale coupled H&H-LCA framework to bring the hydrology and sustainability expertise together to contribute moving the current wage definition of sustainable hydrologic design towards onto a globally standard concept. The proposed framework was employed to study GIs for an urban watershed in Toledo, OH. Lastly, uncertainties associated with the proposed method and parameters were analyzed through a robust Monte Carlo simulation using parallel processing. Results indicated the necessity of both hydrologic and LCA components in the design procedure in order to achieve sustainability.

A Quantitative Socio-hydrological Characterization of Water Security in Large-Scale Irrigation Systems

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Siddiqi, A.; Muhammad, A.; Wescoat, J. L., Jr.

2017-12-01

Large-scale, legacy canal systems, such as the irrigation infrastructure in the Indus Basin in Punjab, Pakistan, have been primarily conceived, constructed, and operated with a techno-centric approach. The emerging socio-hydrological approaches provide a new lens for studying such systems to potentially identify fresh insights for addressing contemporary challenges of water security. In this work, using the partial definition of water security as "the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water", supply reliability is construed as a partial measure of water security in irrigation systems. A set of metrics are used to quantitatively study reliability of surface supply in the canal systems of Punjab, Pakistan using an extensive dataset of 10-daily surface water deliveries over a decade (2007-2016) and of high frequency (10-minute) flow measurements over one year. The reliability quantification is based on comparison of actual deliveries and entitlements, which are a combination of hydrological and social constructs. The socio-hydrological lens highlights critical issues of how flows are measured, monitored, perceived, and experienced from the perspective of operators (government officials) and users (famers). The analysis reveals varying levels of reliability (and by extension security) of supply when data is examined across multiple temporal and spatial scales. The results shed new light on evolution of water security (as partially measured by supply reliability) for surface irrigation in the Punjab province of Pakistan and demonstrate that "information security" (defined as reliable availability of sufficiently detailed data) is vital for enabling water security. It is found that forecasting and management (that are social processes) lead to differences between entitlements and actual deliveries, and there is significant potential to positively affect supply reliability through interventions in the social realm.

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

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S. Hagemann

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

Toward the Development of a Cold Regions Regional-Scale Hydrologic Model, Final Project Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hinzman, Larry D [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Bolton, William Robert [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Young-Robertson, Jessica (Cable) [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

2018-01-02

This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating that assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.

Application of Large-Scale, Multi-Resolution Watershed Modeling Framework Using the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS

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Haw Yen

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In recent years, large-scale watershed modeling has been implemented broadly in the field of water resources planning and management. Complex hydrological, sediment, and nutrient processes can be simulated by sophisticated watershed simulation models for important issues such as water resources allocation, sediment transport, and pollution control. Among commonly adopted models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT has been demonstrated to provide superior performance with a large amount of referencing databases. However, it is cumbersome to perform tedious initialization steps such as preparing inputs and developing a model with each changing targeted study area. In this study, the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS is introduced to serve as a national-scale Decision Support System (DSS to conduct challenging watershed modeling tasks. HAWQS is a web-based DSS developed and maintained by Texas A & M University, and supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Three different spatial resolutions of Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC8, HUC10, and HUC12 and three temporal scales (time steps in daily/monthly/annual are available as alternatives for general users. In addition, users can specify preferred values of model parameters instead of using the pre-defined sets. With the aid of HAWQS, users can generate a preliminarily calibrated SWAT project within a few minutes by only providing the ending HUC number of the targeted watershed and the simulation period. In the case study, HAWQS was implemented on the Illinois River Basin, USA, with graphical demonstrations and associated analytical results. Scientists and/or decision-makers can take advantage of the HAWQS framework while conducting relevant topics or policies in the future.

Hydrological response of a small catchment burned by experimental fire

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stoof, C.R.; Vervoort, R.W.; Iwema, J.; Elsen, van den H.G.M.; Ferreira, A.J.D.; Ritsema, C.J.

2012-01-01

Fire can considerably change hydrological processes, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and erosion events. Although hydrological processes are largely affected by scale, catchment-scale studies on the hydrological impact of fire in Europe are scarce, and nested approaches are rarely used. We

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

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Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2018-01-01

Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

State of the Art in Large-Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring

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Ochsner, Tyson E.; Cosh, Michael Harold; Cuenca, Richard H.; Dorigo, Wouter; Draper, Clara S.; Hagimoto, Yutaka; Kerr, Yan H.; Larson, Kristine M.; Njoku, Eni Gerald; Small, Eric E.;

Linear infrastructure impacts on landscape hydrology.

Science.gov (United States)

Raiter, Keren G; Prober, Suzanne M; Possingham, Hugh P; Westcott, Fiona; Hobbs, Richard J

2018-01-15

The extent of roads and other forms of linear infrastructure is burgeoning worldwide, but their impacts are inadequately understood and thus poorly mitigated. Previous studies have identified many potential impacts, including alterations to the hydrological functions and soil processes upon which ecosystems depend. However, these impacts have seldom been quantified at a regional level, particularly in arid and semi-arid systems where the gap in knowledge is the greatest, and impacts potentially the most severe. To explore the effects of extensive track, road, and rail networks on surface hydrology at a regional level we assessed over 1000 km of linear infrastructure, including approx. 300 locations where ephemeral streams crossed linear infrastructure, in the largely intact landscapes of Australia's Great Western Woodlands. We found a high level of association between linear infrastructure and altered surface hydrology, with erosion and pooling 5 and 6 times as likely to occur on-road than off-road on average (1.06 erosional and 0.69 pooling features km -1 on vehicle tracks, compared with 0.22 and 0.12 km -1 , off-road, respectively). Erosion severity was greater in the presence of tracks, and 98% of crossings of ephemeral streamlines showed some evidence of impact on water movement (flow impedance (62%); diversion of flows (73%); flow concentration (76%); and/or channel initiation (31%)). Infrastructure type, pastoral land use, culvert presence, soil clay content and erodibility, mean annual rainfall, rainfall erosivity, topography and bare soil cover influenced the frequency and severity of these impacts. We conclude that linear infrastructure frequently affects ephemeral stream flows and intercepts natural overland and near-surface flows, artificially changing site-scale moisture regimes, with some parts of the landscape becoming abnormally wet and other parts becoming water-starved. In addition, linear infrastructure frequently triggers or exacerbates erosion

Hydrological response of a small catchment burned by experimental fire

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C. R. Stoof

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Fire can considerably change hydrological processes, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and erosion events. Although hydrological processes are largely affected by scale, catchment-scale studies on the hydrological impact of fire in Europe are scarce, and nested approaches are rarely used. We performed a catchment-scale experimental fire to improve insight into the drivers of fire impact on hydrology. In north-central Portugal, rainfall, canopy interception, streamflow and soil moisture were monitored in small shrub-covered paired catchments pre- and post-fire. The shrub cover was medium dense to dense (44 to 84% and pre-fire canopy interception was on average 48.7% of total rainfall. Fire increased streamflow volumes 1.6 times more than predicted, resulting in increased runoff coefficients and changed rainfall-streamflow relationships – although the increase in streamflow per unit rainfall was only significant at the subcatchment-scale. Fire also fastened the response of topsoil moisture to rainfall from 2.7 to 2.1 h (p = 0.058, and caused more rapid drying of topsoils after rain events. Since soil physical changes due to fire were not apparent, we suggest that changes resulting from vegetation removal played an important role in increasing streamflow after fire. Results stress that fire impact on hydrology is largely affected by scale, highlight the hydrological impact of fire on small scales, and emphasize the risk of overestimating fire impact when upscaling plot-scale studies to the catchment-scale. Finally, they increase understanding of the processes contributing to post-fire flooding and erosion events.

Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

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Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

Plot-scale field experiment of surface hydrologic processes with EOS implications

Science.gov (United States)

Laymon, Charles A.; Macari, Emir J.; Costes, Nicholas C.

1992-01-01

Plot-scale hydrologic field studies were initiated at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to a) investigate the spatial and temporal variability of surface and subsurface hydrologic processes, particularly as affected by vegetation, and b) develop experimental techniques and associated instrumentation methodology to study hydrologic processes at increasingly large spatial scales. About 150 instruments, most of which are remotely operated, have been installed at the field site to monitor ground atmospheric conditions, precipitation, interception, soil-water status, and energy flux. This paper describes the nature of the field experiment, instrumentation and sampling rationale, and presents preliminary findings.

The impact of runoff and surface hydrology on Titan's climate

Science.gov (United States)

Faulk, Sean; Lora, Juan; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane “wetlands” reservoirs realistically produce many observed features of Titan’s atmosphere, whereas “aquaplanet” simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan’s surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan’s large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. To isolate the singular impact of surface runoff on Titan’s climatology, we run simulations without parameterizations of subsurface flow and topography-atmosphere interactions. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan’s hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan’s atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan’s global climate

Scaling, Similarity, and the Fourth Paradigm for Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Clark, Martyn; Samaniego, Luis; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; van Emmerik, Tim; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Achieng, Kevin; Franz, Trenton E.; Woods, Ross

2017-01-01

In this synthesis paper addressing hydrologic scaling and similarity, we posit that roadblocks in the search for universal laws of hydrology are hindered by our focus on computational simulation (the third paradigm), and assert that it is time for hydrology to embrace a fourth paradigm of data-intensive science. Advances in information-based hydrologic science, coupled with an explosion of hydrologic data and advances in parameter estimation and modelling, have laid the foundation for a data-driven framework for scrutinizing hydrological scaling and similarity hypotheses. We summarize important scaling and similarity concepts (hypotheses) that require testing, describe a mutual information framework for testing these hypotheses, describe boundary condition, state flux, and parameter data requirements across scales to support testing these hypotheses, and discuss some challenges to overcome while pursuing the fourth hydrological paradigm. We call upon the hydrologic sciences community to develop a focused effort towards adopting the fourth paradigm and apply this to outstanding challenges in scaling and similarity.

Estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Veijalainen, N.

2012-07-01

Climate scenarios project increases in air temperature and precipitation in Finland during the 21st century and these will results in changes in hydrology. In this thesis climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland were estimated with hydrological modelling and several climate scenarios. One of the goals was to understand the influence of different processes and catchment characteristics on the hydrological response to climate change in boreal conditions. The tool of the climate change impact assessment was the conceptual hydrological model WSFS (Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System). The studies employed and compared two methods of transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the WSFS hydrological model (delta change approach and direct bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data). Direct RCM data was used to simulate transient hydrological scenarios for 1951- 2100 and the simulation results were analysed to detect changes in water balance components and trends in discharge series. The results revealed that seasonal changes in discharges in Finland were the clearest impacts of climate change. Air temperature increase will affect snow accumulation and melt, increase winter discharge and decrease spring snowmelt discharge. The impacts of climate change on floods in Finland by 2070-2099 varied considerably depending on the location, catchment characteristics, timing of the floods and climate scenario. Floods caused by spring snowmelt decreased or remained unchanged, whereas autumn and winter floods caused by precipitation increased especially in large lakes and their outflow rivers. Since estimation of climate change impacts includes uncertainties in every step of the long modelling process, the accumulated uncertainties by the end of the process become large. The large differences between results from different climate scenarios highlight the need to use several climate scenarios in climate change impact studies

Large sample hydrology in NZ: Spatial organisation in process diagnostics

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McMillan, H. K.; Woods, R. A.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

A key question in hydrology is how to predict the dominant runoff generation processes in any given catchment. This knowledge is vital for a range of applications in forecasting hydrological response and related processes such as nutrient and sediment transport. A step towards this goal is to map dominant processes in locations where data is available. In this presentation, we use data from 900 flow gauging stations and 680 rain gauges in New Zealand, to assess hydrological processes. These catchments range in character from rolling pasture, to alluvial plains, to temperate rainforest, to volcanic areas. By taking advantage of so many flow regimes, we harness the benefits of large-sample and comparative hydrology to study patterns and spatial organisation in runoff processes, and their relationship to physical catchment characteristics. The approach we use to assess hydrological processes is based on the concept of diagnostic signatures. Diagnostic signatures in hydrology are targeted analyses of measured data which allow us to investigate specific aspects of catchment response. We apply signatures which target the water balance, the flood response and the recession behaviour. We explore the organisation, similarity and diversity in hydrological processes across the New Zealand landscape, and how these patterns change with scale. We discuss our findings in the context of the strong hydro-climatic gradients in New Zealand, and consider the implications for hydrological model building on a national scale.

Which spatial discretization for distributed hydrological models? Proposition of a methodology and illustration for medium to large-scale catchments

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J. Dehotin

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Distributed hydrological models are valuable tools to derive distributed estimation of water balance components or to study the impact of land-use or climate change on water resources and water quality. In these models, the choice of an appropriate spatial discretization is a crucial issue. It is obviously linked to the available data, their spatial resolution and the dominant hydrological processes. For a given catchment and a given data set, the "optimal" spatial discretization should be adapted to the modelling objectives, as the latter determine the dominant hydrological processes considered in the modelling. For small catchments, landscape heterogeneity can be represented explicitly, whereas for large catchments such fine representation is not feasible and simplification is needed. The question is thus: is it possible to design a flexible methodology to represent landscape heterogeneity efficiently, according to the problem to be solved? This methodology should allow a controlled and objective trade-off between available data, the scale of the dominant water cycle components and the modelling objectives.

In this paper, we propose a general methodology for such catchment discretization. It is based on the use of nested discretizations. The first level of discretization is composed of the sub-catchments, organised by the river network topology. The sub-catchment variability can be described using a second level of discretizations, which is called hydro-landscape units. This level of discretization is only performed if it is consistent with the modelling objectives, the active hydrological processes and data availability. The hydro-landscapes take into account different geophysical factors such as topography, land-use, pedology, but also suitable hydrological discontinuities such as ditches, hedges, dams, etc. For numerical reasons these hydro-landscapes can be further subdivided into smaller elements that will constitute the

Quantitative analysis on the environmental impact of large-scale water transfer project on water resource area in a changing environment

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D. H. Yan

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The interbasin long-distance water transfer project is key support for the reasonable allocation of water resources in a large-scale area, which can optimize the spatio-temporal change of water resources to secure the amount of water available. Large-scale water transfer projects have a deep influence on ecosystems; besides, global climate change causes uncertainty and additive effect of the environmental impact of water transfer projects. Therefore, how to assess the ecological and environmental impact of megaprojects in both construction and operation phases has triggered a lot of attention. The water-output area of the western route of China's South-North Water Transfer Project was taken as the study area of the present article. According to relevant evaluation principles and on the basis of background analysis, we identified the influencing factors and established the diagnostic index system. The climate-hydrology-ecology coupled simulation model was used to simulate and predict ecological and environmental responses of the water resource area in a changing environment. The emphasis of impact evaluation was placed on the reservoir construction and operation scheduling, representative river corridors and wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment below the dam sites. In the end, an overall evaluation of the comprehensive influence of the project was conducted. The research results were as follows: the environmental impacts of the western route project in the water resource area were concentrated on two aspects: the permanent destruction of vegetation during the phase of dam construction and river impoundment, and the significant influence on the hydrological situation of natural river corridor after the implementation of water extraction. The impact on local climate, vegetation ecology, typical wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment of river basins below the dam sites was small.

Quantitative analysis on the environmental impact of large-scale water transfer project on water resource area in a changing environment

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, D. H.; Wang, H.; Li, H. H.; Wang, G.; Qin, T. L.; Wang, D. Y.; Wang, L. H.

2012-08-01

The interbasin long-distance water transfer project is key support for the reasonable allocation of water resources in a large-scale area, which can optimize the spatio-temporal change of water resources to secure the amount of water available. Large-scale water transfer projects have a deep influence on ecosystems; besides, global climate change causes uncertainty and additive effect of the environmental impact of water transfer projects. Therefore, how to assess the ecological and environmental impact of megaprojects in both construction and operation phases has triggered a lot of attention. The water-output area of the western route of China's South-North Water Transfer Project was taken as the study area of the present article. According to relevant evaluation principles and on the basis of background analysis, we identified the influencing factors and established the diagnostic index system. The climate-hydrology-ecology coupled simulation model was used to simulate and predict ecological and environmental responses of the water resource area in a changing environment. The emphasis of impact evaluation was placed on the reservoir construction and operation scheduling, representative river corridors and wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment below the dam sites. In the end, an overall evaluation of the comprehensive influence of the project was conducted. The research results were as follows: the environmental impacts of the western route project in the water resource area were concentrated on two aspects: the permanent destruction of vegetation during the phase of dam construction and river impoundment, and the significant influence on the hydrological situation of natural river corridor after the implementation of water extraction. The impact on local climate, vegetation ecology, typical wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment of river basins below the dam sites was small.

Hydrological impacts of land use change in three diverse South African catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Warburton, Michele L.; Schulze, Roland E.; Jewitt, Graham P. W.

2012-01-01

SummaryIn order to meet society's needs for water, food, fuel and fibre, the earth's natural land cover and land use have been significantly changed. These changes have impacted on the hydrological responses and thus available water resources, as the hydrological responses of a catchment are dependent upon, and sensitive to, changes in the land use. The degree of anthropogenic modification of the land cover, the intensity of the land use changes and location of land uses within a catchment determines the extent to which land uses influences hydrological response of a catchment. The objective of the study was to improve understanding of the complex interactions between hydrological response and land use to aid in water resources planning. To achieve this, a hydrological model, viz. the ACRU agrohydrological model, which adequately represents hydrological processes and is sensitive to land use changes, was used to generate hydrological responses from three diverse, complex and operational South African catchments under both current land use and a baseline land cover. The selected catchments vary with respect to both land use and climate. The semi-arid sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas, whereas in the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment the primary land uses are commercial orchards and vineyards. The sub-humid Mgeni catchment is dominated by commercial plantation forestry in the upper reaches, commercial sugarcane and urban areas in the middle reaches, with the lower reaches dominated by urban areas. The hydrological responses of the selected catchments to land use change were complex. Results showed that the contributions of different land uses to the streamflow generated from a catchment is not proportional to the relative area of that land use, and the relative contribution of the land use to the catchment streamflow varies with the mean annual rainfall of the catchment. Furthermore

Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a continuous distributed hydrological model: impacts on the hydrologic cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Campo, Lorenzo; Cenci, Luca; Silvestro, Francesco; Delogu, Fabio; Boni, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

2015-04-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce in-situ data. This work investigates the impact of the assimilation of different remote sensing products on the hydrological cycle by using a continuous physically based distributed hydrological model. Three soil moisture products derived by ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) are used to update the model state variables. The satellite-derived products are assimilated into the hydrological model using different assimilation techniques: a simple nudging and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Moreover two assimilation strategies are evaluated to assess the impact of assimilating the satellite products at model spatial resolution or at the satellite scale. The experiments are carried out for three Italian catchments on multi year period. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST, evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics are tested and discussed.

Development of a Watershed-Scale Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment Model with the Asymptotic Curve Number Regression Equation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jichul Ryu

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this study, 52 asymptotic Curve Number (CN regression equations were developed for combinations of representative land covers and hydrologic soil groups. In addition, to overcome the limitations of the original Long-term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA model when it is applied to larger watersheds, a watershed-scale L-THIA Asymptotic CN (ACN regression equation model (watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was developed by integrating the asymptotic CN regressions and various modules for direct runoff/baseflow/channel routing. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was applied to four watersheds in South Korea to evaluate the accuracy of its streamflow prediction. The coefficient of determination (R2 and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE values for observed versus simulated streamflows over intervals of eight days were greater than 0.6 for all four of the watersheds. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model, including the asymptotic CN regression equation method, can simulate long-term streamflow sufficiently well with the ten parameters that have been added for the characterization of streamflow.

Modelling hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes in basins with large semi-arid wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Fleischmann, Ayan; Siqueira, Vinícius; Paris, Adrien; Collischonn, Walter; Paiva, Rodrigo; Pontes, Paulo; Crétaux, Jean-François; Bergé-Nguyen, Muriel; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Gosset, Marielle; Calmant, Stephane; Tanimoun, Bachir

2018-06-01

Hydrological and hydrodynamic models are core tools for simulation of large basins and complex river systems associated to wetlands. Recent studies have pointed towards the importance of online coupling strategies, representing feedbacks between floodplain inundation and vertical hydrology. Especially across semi-arid regions, soil-floodplain interactions can be strong. In this study, we included a two-way coupling scheme in a large scale hydrological-hydrodynamic model (MGB) and tested different model structures, in order to assess which processes are important to be simulated in large semi-arid wetlands and how these processes interact with water budget components. To demonstrate benefits from this coupling over a validation case, the model was applied to the Upper Niger River basin encompassing the Niger Inner Delta, a vast semi-arid wetland in the Sahel Desert. Simulation was carried out from 1999 to 2014 with daily TMPA 3B42 precipitation as forcing, using both in-situ and remotely sensed data for calibration and validation. Model outputs were in good agreement with discharge and water levels at stations both upstream and downstream of the Inner Delta (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) >0.6 for most gauges), as well as for flooded areas within the Delta region (NSE = 0.6; r = 0.85). Model estimates of annual water losses across the Delta varied between 20.1 and 30.6 km3/yr, while annual evapotranspiration ranged between 760 mm/yr and 1130 mm/yr. Evaluation of model structure indicated that representation of both floodplain channels hydrodynamics (storage, bifurcations, lateral connections) and vertical hydrological processes (floodplain water infiltration into soil column; evapotranspiration from soil and vegetation and evaporation of open water) are necessary to correctly simulate flood wave attenuation and evapotranspiration along the basin. Two-way coupled models are necessary to better understand processes in large semi-arid wetlands. Finally, such coupled

Large-scale hydrological simulations using the soil water assessment tool, protocol development, and application in the danube basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Pagliero, Liliana; Bouraoui, Fayçal; Willems, Patrick; Diels, Jan

2014-01-01

The Water Framework Directive of the European Union requires member states to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies. A harmonized pan-European assessment of water resources availability and quality, as affected by various management options, is necessary for a successful implementation of European environmental legislation. In this context, we developed a methodology to predict surface water flow at the pan-European scale using available datasets. Among the hydrological models available, the Soil Water Assessment Tool was selected because its characteristics make it suitable for large-scale applications with limited data requirements. This paper presents the results for the Danube pilot basin. The Danube Basin is one of the largest European watersheds, covering approximately 803,000 km and portions of 14 countries. The modeling data used included land use and management information, a detailed soil parameters map, and high-resolution climate data. The Danube Basin was divided into 4663 subwatersheds of an average size of 179 km. A modeling protocol is proposed to cope with the problems of hydrological regionalization from gauged to ungauged watersheds and overparameterization and identifiability, which are usually present during calibration. The protocol involves a cluster analysis for the determination of hydrological regions and multiobjective calibration using a combination of manual and automated calibration. The proposed protocol was successfully implemented, with the modeled discharges capturing well the overall hydrological behavior of the basin. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Modification of input datasets for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction based on large scale climatic indices and weather generator

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šípek, Václav; Daňhelka, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 528, September (2015), s. 720-733 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : seasonal forecasting * ESP * large-scale climate * weather generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.043, year: 2015

Modification of input datasets for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction based on large scale climatic indices and weather generator

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šípek, Václav; Daňhelka, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 528, September (2015), s. 720-733 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : sea sonal forecasting * ESP * large-scale climate * weather generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.043, year: 2015

Large-scale hydrological model river storage and discharge correction using a satellite altimetry-based discharge product

Science.gov (United States)

Emery, Charlotte Marie; Paris, Adrien; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Boone, Aaron; Calmant, Stéphane; Garambois, Pierre-André; Santos da Silva, Joecila

2018-04-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to study the continental part of the water cycle. However, even though their accuracy is increasing, inherent model uncertainties can not be avoided. In the meantime, remotely sensed observations of the continental water cycle variables such as soil moisture, lakes and river elevations are more frequent and accurate. Therefore, those two different types of information can be combined, using data assimilation techniques to reduce a model's uncertainties in its state variables or/and in its input parameters. The objective of this study is to present a data assimilation platform that assimilates into the large-scale ISBA-CTRIP LSM a punctual river discharge product, derived from ENVISAT nadir altimeter water elevation measurements and rating curves, over the whole Amazon basin. To deal with the scale difference between the model and the observation, the study also presents an initial development for a localization treatment that allows one to limit the impact of observations to areas close to the observation and in the same hydrological network. This assimilation platform is based on the ensemble Kalman filter and can correct either the CTRIP river water storage or the discharge. Root mean square error (RMSE) compared to gauge discharges is globally reduced until 21 % and at Óbidos, near the outlet, RMSE is reduced by up to 52 % compared to ENVISAT-based discharge. Finally, it is shown that localization improves results along the main tributaries.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Gosling, S. N.; Taylor, R. G.; Arnell, N. W.; Todd, M. C.

2011-01-01

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%), and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. N. Gosling

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff

Large-scale river regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petts, G.

1994-01-01

Recent concern over human impacts on the environment has tended to focus on climatic change, desertification, destruction of tropical rain forests, and pollution. Yet large-scale water projects such as dams, reservoirs, and inter-basin transfers are among the most dramatic and extensive ways in which our environment has been, and continues to be, transformed by human action. Water running to the sea is perceived as a lost resource, floods are viewed as major hazards, and wetlands are seen as wastelands. River regulation, involving the redistribution of water in time and space, is a key concept in socio-economic development. To achieve water and food security, to develop drylands, and to prevent desertification and drought are primary aims for many countries. A second key concept is ecological sustainability. Yet the ecology of rivers and their floodplains is dependent on the natural hydrological regime, and its related biochemical and geomorphological dynamics. (Author)

Hydrological impact of high-density small dams in a humid catchment, Southeast China

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, W.; Lei, H.; Yang, D.

2017-12-01

The Jiulong River basin is a humid catchment with a drainage area of 14,741 km2; however, it has over 1000 hydropower stations within it. Such catchment with high-density small dams is scarce in China. Yet few is known about the impact of high-density small dams on streamflow changes. To what extent the large number of dams alters the hydrologic patterns is a fundamental scientific issue for water resources management, flood control, and aquatic ecological environment protection. Firstly, trend and change point analyses are applied to determine the characteristics of inter-annual streamflow. Based on the detected change point, the study period is divided into two study periods, the ``natural'' and ``disturbed'' periods. Then, a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) and the fixing-changing method are adopted to evaluate the relative contributions of climate variations and damming to the changes in streamflow at each temporal scale (i.e., from daily, monthly to annual). Based on the simulated natural streamflow, the impact of dam construction on hydrologic alteration and aquatic ecological environment will be evaluated. The hydrologic signatures that will be investigated include flood peak, seasonality of streamflow, and the inter-annual variability of streamflow. In particular, the impacts of damming on aquatic ecological environment will be investigated using eco-flow metrics and indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) which contains 33 individual streamflow statistics that are closely related to aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study expect to provide a reference for reservoir operation considering both ecological and economic benefits of such operations in the catchment with high-density dams.

Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. A. J. Van Lanen

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Large-scale hydrological drought studies have demonstrated spatial and temporal patterns in observed trends, and considerable difference exists among global hydrological models in their ability to reproduce these patterns. In this study a controlled modeling experiment has been set up to systematically explore the role of climate and physical catchment structure (soils and groundwater systems to better understand underlying drought-generating mechanisms. Daily climate data (1958–2001 of 1495 grid cells across the world were selected that represent Köppen–Geiger major climate types. These data were fed into a conceptual hydrological model. Nine realizations of physical catchment structure were defined for each grid cell, i.e., three soils with different soil moisture supply capacity and three groundwater systems (quickly, intermediately and slowly responding. Hydrological drought characteristics (number, duration and standardized deficit volume were identified from time series of daily discharge. Summary statistics showed that the equatorial and temperate climate types (A- and C-climates had about twice as many drought events as the arid and polar types (B- and E-climates, and the durations of more extreme droughts were about half the length. Selected soils under permanent grassland were found to have a minor effect on hydrological drought characteristics, whereas groundwater systems had major impact. Groundwater systems strongly controlled the hydrological drought characteristics of all climate types, but particularly those of the wetter A-, C- and D-climates because of higher recharge. The median number of droughts for quickly responding groundwater systems was about three times higher than for slowly responding systems. Groundwater systems substantially affected the duration, particularly of the more extreme drought events. Bivariate probability distributions of drought duration and standardized deficit for combinations of K�

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

Science.gov (United States)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Large-scale hydrological modelling in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Güntner, Andreas

2002-07-01

for the generating rainfall time series of higher temporal resolution. All model parameters of Wasa can be derived from physiographic information of the study area. Thus, model calibration is primarily not required. Model applications of Wasa for historical time series generally results in a good model performance when comparing the simulation results of river discharge and reservoir storage volumes with observed data for river basins of various sizes. The mean water balance as well as the high interannual and intra-annual variability is reasonably represented by the model. Limitations of the modelling concept are most markedly seen for sub-basins with a runoff component from deep groundwater bodies of which the dynamics cannot be satisfactorily represented without calibration. Further results of model applications are: (1) Lateral processes of redistribution of runoff and soil moisture at the hillslope scale, in particular reinfiltration of surface runoff, lead to markedly smaller discharge volumes at the basin scale than the simple sum of runoff of the individual sub-areas. Thus, these processes are to be captured also in large-scale models. The different relevance of these processes for different conditions is demonstrated by a larger percentage decrease of discharge volumes in dry as compared to wet years. (2) Precipitation characteristics have a major impact on the hydrological response of semi-arid environments. In particular, underestimated rainfall intensities in the rainfall input due to the rough temporal resolution of the model and due to interpolation effects and, consequently, underestimated runoff volumes have to be compensated in the model. A scaling factor in the infiltration module or the use of disaggregated hourly rainfall data show good results in this respect. The simulation results of Wasa are characterized by large uncertainties. These are, on the one hand, due to uncertainties of the model structure to adequately represent the relevant

Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Yuan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.

Quantifying Km-scale Hydrological Exchange Flows under Dynamic Flows and Their Influences on River Corridor Biogeochemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, X.; Song, X.; Shuai, P.; Hammond, G. E.; Ren, H.; Zachara, J. M.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) in rivers play vital roles in watershed ecological and biogeochemical functions due to their strong capacity to attenuate contaminants and process significant quantities of carbon and nutrients. While most of existing HEF studies focus on headwater systems with the assumption of steady-state flow, there is lack of understanding of large-scale HEFs in high-order regulated rivers that experience high-frequency stage fluctuations. The large variability of HEFs is a result of interactions between spatial heterogeneity in hydrogeologic properties and temporal variation in river discharge induced by natural or anthropogenic perturbations. Our 9-year spatially distributed dataset (water elevation, specific conductance, and temperature) combined with mechanistic hydrobiogeochemical simulations have revealed complex spatial and temporal dynamics in km-scale HEFs and their significant impacts on contaminant plume mobility and hyporheic biogeochemical processes along the Hanford Reach. Extended multidirectional flow behaviors of unconfined, river corridor groundwater were observed hundreds of meters inland from the river shore resulting from discharge-dependent HEFs. An appropriately sized modeling domain to capture the impact of regional groundwater flow as well as knowledge of subsurface structures controlling intra-aquifer hydrologic connectivity were essential to realistically model transient storage in this large-scale river corridor. This work showed that both river water and mobile groundwater contaminants could serve as effective tracers of HEFs, thus providing valuable information for evaluating and validating the HEF models. Multimodal residence time distributions with long tails were resulted from the mixture of long and short exchange pathways, which consequently impact the carbon and nutrient cycling within the river corridor. Improved understanding of HEFs using integrated observational and modeling approaches sheds light on

Improved Large-Scale Inundation Modelling by 1D-2D Coupling and Consideration of Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Processes - a Case Study in the Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Hoch, J. M.; Bierkens, M. F.; Van Beek, R.; Winsemius, H.; Haag, A.

2015-12-01

Understanding the dynamics of fluvial floods is paramount to accurate flood hazard and risk modeling. Currently, economic losses due to flooding constitute about one third of all damage resulting from natural hazards. Given future projections of climate change, the anticipated increase in the World's population and the associated implications, sound knowledge of flood hazard and related risk is crucial. Fluvial floods are cross-border phenomena that need to be addressed accordingly. Yet, only few studies model floods at the large-scale which is preferable to tiling the output of small-scale models. Most models cannot realistically model flood wave propagation due to a lack of either detailed channel and floodplain geometry or the absence of hydrologic processes. This study aims to develop a large-scale modeling tool that accounts for both hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes, to find and understand possible sources of errors and improvements and to assess how the added hydrodynamics affect flood wave propagation. Flood wave propagation is simulated by DELFT3D-FM (FM), a hydrodynamic model using a flexible mesh to schematize the study area. It is coupled to PCR-GLOBWB (PCR), a macro-scale hydrological model, that has its own simpler 1D routing scheme (DynRout) which has already been used for global inundation modeling and flood risk assessments (GLOFRIS; Winsemius et al., 2013). A number of model set-ups are compared and benchmarked for the simulation period 1986-1996: (0) PCR with DynRout; (1) using a FM 2D flexible mesh forced with PCR output and (2) as in (1) but discriminating between 1D channels and 2D floodplains, and, for comparison, (3) and (4) the same set-ups as (1) and (2) but forced with observed GRDC discharge values. Outputs are subsequently validated against observed GRDC data at Óbidos and flood extent maps from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. The present research constitutes a first step into a globally applicable approach to fully couple

Integrating Remote Sensing Information Into A Distributed Hydrological Model for Improving Water Budget Predictions in Large-scale Basins through Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Changbo; Jia, Yangwen; Su, Z.(Bob); Zhou, Zuhao; Qiu, Yaqin; Suhui, Shen

2008-01-01

This paper investigates whether remote sensing evapotranspiration estimates can be integrated by means of data assimilation into a distributed hydrological model for improving the predictions of spatial water distribution over a large river basin with an area of 317,800 km2. A series of available MODIS satellite images over the Haihe River basin in China are used for the year 2005. Evapotranspiration is retrieved from these 1×1 km resolution images using the SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System) algorithm. The physically-based distributed model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins) is used to compute the water balance of the Haihe River basin in the same year. Comparison between model-derived and remote sensing retrieval basin-averaged evapotranspiration estimates shows a good piecewise linear relationship, but their spatial distribution within the Haihe basin is different. The remote sensing derived evapotranspiration shows variability at finer scales. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) data assimilation algorithm, suitable for non-linear problems, is used. Assimilation results indicate that remote sensing observations have a potentially important role in providing spatial information to the assimilation system for the spatially optical hydrological parameterization of the model. This is especially important for large basins, such as the Haihe River basin in this study. Combining and integrating the capabilities of and information from model simulation and remote sensing techniques may provide the best spatial and temporal characteristics for hydrological states/fluxes, and would be both appealing and necessary for improving our knowledge of fundamental hydrological processes and for addressing important water resource management problems. PMID:27879946

Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins

Science.gov (United States)

Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

2013-04-01

Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

Science.gov (United States)

Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-01-01

Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China

2017-11-03

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

Large-scale melting and impact mixing on early-formed asteroids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greenwood, Richard; Barrat, J.-A.; Scott, Edward Robert Dalton

Large-scale melting of asteroids and planetesimals is now known to have taken place ex-tremely early in solar system history [1]. The first-generation bodies produced by this process would have been subject to rapid collisional reprocessing, leading in most cases to fragmentation and/or accretion...... the relationship between the different groups of achondrites [3, 4]. Here we present new oxygen isotope evidence con-cerning the role of large-scale melting and subsequent impact mixing in the evolution of three important achondrite groups: the main-group pallasites, meso-siderites and HEDs....

Watershed-scale impacts of stormwater green infrastructure on hydrology, nutrient fluxes, and combined sewer overflows in the mid-Atlantic region.

Science.gov (United States)

Pennino, Michael J; McDonald, Rob I; Jaffe, Peter R

2016-09-15

Stormwater green infrastructure (SGI), including rain gardens, detention ponds, bioswales, and green roofs, is being implemented in cities across the globe to reduce flooding, combined sewer overflows, and pollutant transport to streams and rivers. Despite the increasing use of urban SGI, few studies have quantified the cumulative effects of multiple SGI projects on hydrology and water quality at the watershed scale. To assess the effects of SGI, Washington, DC, Montgomery County, MD, and Baltimore County, MD, were selected based on the availability of data on SGI, water quality, and stream flow. The cumulative impact of SGI was evaluated over space and time by comparing watersheds with and without SGI, and by assessing how long-term changes in SGI impact hydrologic and water quality metrics over time. Most Mid-Atlantic municipalities have a goal of achieving 10-20% of the landscape drain runoff through SGI by 2030. Of these areas, Washington, DC currently has the greatest amount of SGI (12.7% of the landscape drained through SGI), while Baltimore County has the lowest (7.9%). When controlling for watersheds size and percent impervious surface cover, watersheds with greater amounts of SGI have less flashy hydrology, with 44% lower peak runoff, 26% less frequent runoff events, and 26% less variable runoff. Watersheds with more SGI also show 44% less NO3(-) and 48% less total nitrogen exports compared to watersheds with minimal SGI. There was no significant reduction in phosphorus exports or combined sewer overflows in watersheds with greater SGI. When comparing individual watersheds over time, increases in SGI corresponded to non-significant reductions in hydrologic flashiness compared to watersheds with no change in SGI. While the implementation of SGI is somewhat in its infancy in some regions, cities are beginning to have a scale of SGI where there are statistically significant differences in hydrologic patterns and water quality. Copyright © 2016 The Authors

SWAT-simulated hydrological impact of land-use change in the Zanjanrood basin, Northwest Iran

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghaffari, G.; Ghodousi, J.; Ahmadi, H.; Keesstra, S.D.

2010-01-01

Understanding the impacts of land-use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land-use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and

Physics-based simulations of the impacts forest management practices have on hydrologic response

Science.gov (United States)

Adrianne Carr; Keith Loague

2012-01-01

The impacts of logging on near-surface hydrologic response at the catchment and watershed scales were examined quantitatively using numerical simulation. The simulations were conducted with the Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) for the North Fork of Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Fort Bragg, California. InHM is a comprehensive physics-based...

Impact of Sub-grid Soil Textural Properties on Simulations of Hydrological Fluxes at the Continental Scale Mississippi River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.; Livneh, B.

2013-12-01

Knowledge of soil hydraulic properties such as porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity is required to accurately model the dynamics of near-surface hydrological processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and root-zone soil moisture dynamics) and provide reliable estimates of regional water and energy budgets. Soil hydraulic properties are commonly derived from pedo-transfer functions using soil textural information recorded during surveys, such as the fractions of sand and clay, bulk density, and organic matter content. Typically large scale land-surface models are parameterized using a relatively coarse soil map with little or no information on parametric sub-grid variability. In this study we analyze the impact of sub-grid soil variability on simulated hydrological fluxes over the Mississippi River Basin (≈3,240,000 km2) at multiple spatio-temporal resolutions. A set of numerical experiments were conducted with the distributed mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) using two soil datasets: (a) the Digital General Soil Map of the United States or STATSGO2 (1:250 000) and (b) the recently collated Harmonized World Soil Database based on the FAO-UNESCO Soil Map of the World (1:5 000 000). mHM was parameterized with the multi-scale regionalization technique that derives distributed soil hydraulic properties via pedo-transfer functions and regional coefficients. Within the experimental framework, the 3-hourly model simulations were conducted at four spatial resolutions ranging from 0.125° to 1°, using meteorological datasets from the NLDAS-2 project for the time period 1980-2012. Preliminary results indicate that the model was able to capture observed streamflow behavior reasonably well with both soil datasets, in the major sub-basins (i.e. the Missouri, the Upper Mississippi, the Ohio, the Red, and the Arkansas). However, the spatio-temporal patterns of simulated water fluxes and states (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration) from both simulations, showed marked

Sparse deconvolution for the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem of impact force reconstruction

Science.gov (United States)

Qiao, Baijie; Zhang, Xingwu; Gao, Jiawei; Liu, Ruonan; Chen, Xuefeng

2017-01-01

Most previous regularization methods for solving the inverse problem of force reconstruction are to minimize the l2-norm of the desired force. However, these traditional regularization methods such as Tikhonov regularization and truncated singular value decomposition, commonly fail to solve the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem in moderate computational cost. In this paper, taking into account the sparse characteristic of impact force, the idea of sparse deconvolution is first introduced to the field of impact force reconstruction and a general sparse deconvolution model of impact force is constructed. Second, a novel impact force reconstruction method based on the primal-dual interior point method (PDIPM) is proposed to solve such a large-scale sparse deconvolution model, where minimizing the l2-norm is replaced by minimizing the l1-norm. Meanwhile, the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm is used to compute the search direction of PDIPM with high computational efficiency. Finally, two experiments including the small-scale or medium-scale single impact force reconstruction and the relatively large-scale consecutive impact force reconstruction are conducted on a composite wind turbine blade and a shell structure to illustrate the advantage of PDIPM. Compared with Tikhonov regularization, PDIPM is more efficient, accurate and robust whether in the single impact force reconstruction or in the consecutive impact force reconstruction.

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2016-12-01

Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire's impacts on southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems, hydrology, and fuels

Science.gov (United States)

Peter F. Ffolliott; Cody L. Stropki; Hui Chen; Daniel G. Neary

2011-01-01

The Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire burned nearly 462,600 acres in north-central Arizona in the summer of 2002. The wildfire damaged or destroyed ecosystem resources and disrupted the hydrologic functioning within the impacted ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a largely mosaic pattern. Impacts of the wildfire on ecosystem resources, factors important to hydrologic...

The UP modelling system for large scale hydrology: simulation of the Arkansas-Red River basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. G. Kilsby

1999-01-01

Full Text Available The UP (Upscaled Physically-based hydrological modelling system to the Arkansas-Red River basin (USA is designed for macro-scale simulations of land surface processes, and aims for a physical basis and, avoids the use of discharge records in the direct calibration of parameters. This is achieved in a two stage process: in the first stage parametrizations are derived from detailed modelling of selected representative small and then used in a second stage in which a simple distributed model is used to simulate the dynamic behaviour of the whole basin. The first stage of the process is described in a companion paper (Ewen et al., this issue, and the second stage of this process is described here. The model operated at an hourly time-step on 17-km grid squares for a two year simulation period, and represents all the important hydrological processes including regional aquifer recharge, groundwater discharge, infiltration- and saturation-excess runoff, evapotranspiration, snowmelt, overland and channel flow. Outputs from the model are discussed, and include river discharge at gauging stations and space-time fields of evaporation and soil moisture. Whilst the model efficiency assessed by comparison of simulated and observed discharge records is not as good as could be achieved with a model calibrated against discharge, there are considerable advantages in retaining a physical basis in applications to ungauged river basins and assessments of impacts of land use or climate change.

Coupling a basin erosion and river sediment transport model into a large scale hydrological model: an application in the Amazon basin

Science.gov (United States)

Buarque, D. C.; Collischonn, W.; Paiva, R. C. D.

2012-04-01

This study presents the first application and preliminary results of the large scale hydrodynamic/hydrological model MGB-IPH with a new module to predict the spatial distribution of the basin erosion and river sediment transport in a daily time step. The MGB-IPH is a large-scale, distributed and process based hydrological model that uses a catchment based discretization and the Hydrological Response Units (HRU) approach. It uses physical based equations to simulate the hydrological processes, such as the Penman Monteith model for evapotranspiration, and uses the Muskingum Cunge approach and a full 1D hydrodynamic model for river routing; including backwater effects and seasonal flooding. The sediment module of the MGB-IPH model is divided into two components: 1) prediction of erosion over the basin and sediment yield to river network; 2) sediment transport along the river channels. Both MGB-IPH and the sediment module use GIS tools to display relevant maps and to extract parameters from SRTM DEM (a 15" resolution was adopted). Using the catchment discretization the sediment module applies the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation to predict soil loss from each HRU considering three sediment classes defined according to the soil texture: sand, silt and clay. The effects of topography on soil erosion are estimated by a two-dimensional slope length (LS) factor which using the contributing area approach and a local slope steepness (S), both estimated for each DEM pixel using GIS algorithms. The amount of sediment releasing to the catchment river reach in each day is calculated using a linear reservoir. Once the sediment reaches the river they are transported into the river channel using an advection equation for silt and clay and a sediment continuity equation for sand. A sediment balance based on the Yang sediment transport capacity, allowing to compute the amount of erosion and deposition along the rivers, is performed for sand particles as bed load, whilst no

Deconstructing the deconstruction of Appalachia: Mountaintop mining effects on hydrology across temporal and spatial scales

Science.gov (United States)

Nippgen, F.; Ross, M. R. V.; Bernhardt, E. S.; McGlynn, B. L.

2017-12-01

Mountaintop mining (MTM) is an especially destructive form of surface coal mining. It is widespread in Central Appalachia and is practiced around the world. In the process of accessing coal seams up to several hundred meters below the surface, mountaintops and ridges are removed via explosives and heavy machinery with the resulting overburden pushed into nearby valleys. This broken up rock and soil material represents a largely unknown amount of storage for incoming precipitation that facilitates enhanced chemical weathering rates and increased dissolved solids exports to streams. However, assessing the independent impact of MTM can be difficult in the presence of other forms of mining, especially underground mining. Here, we evaluate the effect of MTM on water quantity and quality on annual, seasonal, and event time scales in two sets of paired watersheds in southwestern West Virginia impacted by MTM. On an annual timescale, the mined watersheds sustained baseflow throughout the year, while the first order watersheds ceased flowing during the latter parts of the growing season. In fractionally mined watersheds that continued to flow, the water in the stream was exclusively generated from mined portions of the watersheds, leading to elevated total dissolved solids in the stream water. On the event time scale, we analyzed 50 storm events over a water year for a range of hydrologic response metrics. The mined watersheds exhibited smaller runoff ratios and longer response times during the wet dormant season, but responded similarly to rainfall events during the growing season or even exceeded the runoff magnitude of the reference watersheds. Our research demonstrates a clear difference in hydrologic response between mined and unmined watersheds during the growing season and the dormant season that are detectable at annual, seasonal, and event time scales. For larger spatial scales (up to 2,000km2) the effect of MTM on water quantity is not as easily detectable. At

A large scale field experiment in the Amazon basin (LAMBADA/BATERISTA)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dolman, A.J.; Kabat, P.; Gash, J.H.C.; Noilhan, J.; Jochum, A.M.; Nobre, C.

1995-01-01

A description is given of a large-scale field experiment planned in the Amazon basin, aimed at assessing the large-scale balances of energy, water and carbon dioxide. The embedding of this experiment in global change programmes is described, viz. the Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle

Towards systematic planning of small-scale hydrological intervention-based research (discussion paper)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pramana, K.E.R.; Ertsen, M.W.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

2015-01-01

Many small-scale water development initiatives are accompanied by hydrological research to study either the shape of the intervention or its impacts. Humans influence both, and thus one needs to take human agency into account. This paper focuses on the effects of human actions in the intervention

Evaluating the impact of farm scale innovation at catchment scale

Science.gov (United States)

van Breda, Phelia; De Clercq, Willem; Vlok, Pieter; Querner, Erik

2014-05-01

Hydrological modelling lends itself to other disciplines very well, normally as a process based system that acts as a catalogue of events taking place. These hydrological models are spatial-temporal in their design and are generally well suited for what-if situations in other disciplines. Scaling should therefore be a function of the purpose of the modelling. Process is always linked with scale or support but the temporal resolution can affect the results if the spatial scale is not suitable. The use of hydrological response units tends to lump area around physical features but disregards farm boundaries. Farm boundaries are often the more crucial uppermost resolution needed to gain more value from hydrological modelling. In the Letaba Catchment of South Africa, we find a generous portion of landuses, different models of ownership, different farming systems ranging from large commercial farms to small subsistence farming. All of these have the same basic right to water but water distribution in the catchment is somewhat of a problem. Since water quantity is also a problem, the water supply systems need to take into account that valuable production areas not be left without water. Clearly hydrological modelling should therefore be sensitive to specific landuse. As a measure of productivity, a system of small farmer production evaluation was designed. This activity presents a dynamic system outside hydrological modelling that is generally not being considered inside hydrological modelling but depends on hydrological modelling. For sustainable development, a number of important concepts needed to be aligned with activities in this region, and the regulatory actions also need to be adhered to. This study aimed at aligning the activities in a region to the vision and objectives of the regulatory authorities. South Africa's system of socio-economic development planning is complex and mostly ineffective. There are many regulatory authorities involved, often with unclear

Impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture and LST on the hydrological cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Delogu, Fabio; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Campo, Lorenzo; Boni, Giorgio

2014-05-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce ground based data. The aim of this work is to investigate the impacts on the performances of a distributed hydrological model (Continuum) of the assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture products and Land Surface (LST). In this work three different soil moisture (SM) products, derived by ASCAT sensor, are used. These data are provided by the EUMETSAT's H-SAF (Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management) program. The considered soil moisture products are: large scale surface soil moisture (SM OBS 1 - H07), small scale surface soil moisture (SM OBS 2 - H08) and profile index in the roots region (SM DAS 2 - H14). These data are compared with soil moisture estimated by Continuum model on the Orba catchment (800 km2), in the northern part of Italy, for the period July 2012-June 2013. Different assimilation experiments have been performed. The first experiment consists in the assimilation of the SM products by using a simple Nudging technique; the second one is the assimilation of only LST data, derived from MSG satellite, and the third is the assimilation of both SM products and LST. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST and soil moisture dynamics were tested.

Analysis of environmental impact assessment for large-scale X-ray medical equipments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fu Jin; Pei Chengkai

2011-01-01

Based on an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) project, this paper elaborates the basic analysis essentials of EIA for the sales project of large-scale X-ray medical equipment, and provides the analysis procedure of environmental impact and dose estimation method under normal and accident conditions. The key points of EIA for the sales project of large-scale X-ray medical equipment include the determination of pollution factor and management limit value according to the project's actual situation, the utilization of various methods of assessment and prediction such as analogy, actual measurement and calculation to analyze, monitor, calculate and predict the pollution during normal and accident condition. (authors)

Watershed Scale Impacts of Stormwater Green Infrastructure on Hydrology and Nutrient Fluxes in the Mid-Atlantic Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaffe, P. R.; Pennino, M. J.; McDonald, R.

2015-12-01

Stormwater green infrastructure (SGI), including rain gardens, detention ponds, bioswales, and green roofs, is being implemented in cities across the globe to help reduce flooding, decrease combined sewer overflows, and lessen pollutant transport to streams and rivers. Despite the increasing use of urban SGI, there is much uncertainty regarding the cumulative effects of multiple SGI projects on hydrology and water quality at the watershed scale. To assess the cumulative effects of SGI, major cities across the mid-Atlantic were selected based on availability of SGI, water quality, and stream flow data. The impact of SGI was evaluated by comparing similar watersheds, with and without SGI or by assessing how long-term changes in SGI impact hydrologic and water quality metrics over time. Most mid-Atlantic cities have a goal of achieving 10-75% SGI by 2030. Of these cites, Washington D.C. currently has the highest density of SGI (15.5%), while Philadelphia, PA and New York, NY have the lowest (0.14% and 0.28%, respectively). When comparing watersheds of similar size and percent impervious surface cover, watersheds with lower amounts of SGI, on average, show up to 40% greater annual total nitrogen and 75% greater total phosphorus loads and show flashier hydrology (as indicated by 35% greater average peak discharge, 26% more peak discharge events per year, and 21% higher peak-to-volume ratio) compared to watersheds with higher amounts of SGI. However, for cities with combined sewer systems (e.g. Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia, PA), there was no relationship between the level of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and the amount of SGI, indicating the level of SGI may not yet be sufficient to reduce CSOs as intended. When comparing individual watersheds over time, increases in SGI show no significant effect on the long-term trends in nutrient loads or hydrologic variables, potentially being obscured by the larger effect of interannual variability.

Potential Impact of Large Scale Abstraction on the Quality of Shallow ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PRO

Significant increase in crop production would not, however, be ... sounding) using Geonics EM34-3 and Abem SAS300C Terrameter to determine the aquifer (fresh water lens) ..... Final report on environmental impact assessment of large scale.

Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wada, Yoshi|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; van Lanen, H.A.J

2015-01-01

Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

Intermittent Rivers and Biodiversity. Large scale analyses between hydrology and ecology in intermittent rivers

OpenAIRE

Blanchard, Q.

2014-01-01

Intermittent rivers are characterized by a temporary interruption of their flow which can manifest in a variety of ways, as much on a spatial scale as on a temporal one. This particular aspect of intermittent river hydrology gives rise to unique ecosystems, combining both aquatic and terrestrial habitats. Neglected for a long time by scientists and once considered biologically depauperate and ecologically unimportant, these fragile habitats are nowadays acknowledged for their rendered service...

Toward seamless hydrologic predictions across spatial scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Samaniego

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Land surface and hydrologic models (LSMs/HMs are used at diverse spatial resolutions ranging from catchment-scale (1–10 km to global-scale (over 50 km applications. Applying the same model structure at different spatial scales requires that the model estimates similar fluxes independent of the chosen resolution, i.e., fulfills a flux-matching condition across scales. An analysis of state-of-the-art LSMs and HMs reveals that most do not have consistent hydrologic parameter fields. Multiple experiments with the mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP models demonstrate the pitfalls of deficient parameterization practices currently used in most operational models, which are insufficient to satisfy the flux-matching condition. These examples demonstrate that J. Dooge's 1982 statement on the unsolved problem of parameterization in these models remains true. Based on a review of existing parameter regionalization techniques, we postulate that the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR technique offers a practical and robust method that provides consistent (seamless parameter and flux fields across scales. Herein, we develop a general model protocol to describe how MPR can be applied to a particular model and present an example application using the PCR-GLOBWB model. Finally, we discuss potential advantages and limitations of MPR in obtaining the seamless prediction of hydrological fluxes and states across spatial scales.

Toward seamless hydrologic predictions across spatial scales

Science.gov (United States)

Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Rakovec, Oldrich; Zink, Matthias; Wanders, Niko; Eisner, Stephanie; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Attinger, Sabine

2017-09-01

Land surface and hydrologic models (LSMs/HMs) are used at diverse spatial resolutions ranging from catchment-scale (1-10 km) to global-scale (over 50 km) applications. Applying the same model structure at different spatial scales requires that the model estimates similar fluxes independent of the chosen resolution, i.e., fulfills a flux-matching condition across scales. An analysis of state-of-the-art LSMs and HMs reveals that most do not have consistent hydrologic parameter fields. Multiple experiments with the mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP models demonstrate the pitfalls of deficient parameterization practices currently used in most operational models, which are insufficient to satisfy the flux-matching condition. These examples demonstrate that J. Dooge's 1982 statement on the unsolved problem of parameterization in these models remains true. Based on a review of existing parameter regionalization techniques, we postulate that the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique offers a practical and robust method that provides consistent (seamless) parameter and flux fields across scales. Herein, we develop a general model protocol to describe how MPR can be applied to a particular model and present an example application using the PCR-GLOBWB model. Finally, we discuss potential advantages and limitations of MPR in obtaining the seamless prediction of hydrological fluxes and states across spatial scales.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

2015-01-01

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaofan Zeng

Full Text Available The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

airGR: an R-package suitable for large sample hydrology presenting a suite of lumped hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Thirel, G.; Delaigue, O.; Coron, L.; Perrin, C.; Andreassian, V.

2016-12-01

Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2015; Coron et al., 2016), called airGR, to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A (Mouehli et al., 2006), - the monthly GR2M (Mouehli, 2003) models, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J (Perrin et al., 2003), GR5J (Le Moine, 2008) and GR6J (Pushpalatha et al., 2011), - the hourly GR4H model (Mathevet, 2005), - a degree-day snow module CemaNeige (Valéry et al., 2014). The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithm selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is already used for educational purposes. It allows for convenient implementation of model inter-comparisons and

Hydrological processes at the urban residential scale

Science.gov (United States)

Q. Xiao; E.G. McPherson; J.R. Simpson; S.L. Ustin

2007-01-01

In the face of increasing urbanization, there is growing interest in application of microscale hydrologic solutions to minimize storm runoff and conserve water at the source. In this study, a physically based numerical model was developed to understand hydrologic processes better at the urban residential scale and the interaction of these processes among different...

Ecological succession, hydrology and carbon acquisition of biological soil crusts measured at the micro-scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Tighe, Matthew; Haling, Rebecca E; Flavel, Richard J; Young, Iain M

2012-01-01

The hydrological characteristics of biological soil crusts (BSCs) are not well understood. In particular the relationship between runoff and BSC surfaces at relatively large (>1 m(2)) scales is ambiguous. Further, there is a dearth of information on small scale (mm to cm) hydrological characterization of crust types which severely limits any interpretation of trends at larger scales. Site differences and broad classifications of BSCs as one soil surface type rather than into functional form exacerbate the problem. This study examines, for the first time, some hydrological characteristics and related surface variables of a range of crust types at one site and at a small scale (sub mm to mm). X-ray tomography and fine scale hydrological measurements were made on intact BSCs, followed by C and C isotopic analyses. A 'hump' shaped relationship was found between the successional stage/sensitivity to physical disturbance classification of BSCs and their hydrophobicity, and a similar but 'inverse hump' relationship exists with hydraulic conductivity. Several bivariate relationships were found between hydrological variables. Hydraulic conductivity and hydrophobicity of BSCs were closely related but this association was confounded by crust type. The surface coverage of crust and the microporosity 0.5 mm below the crust surface were closely associated irrespective of crust type. The δ (13)C signatures of the BSCs were also related to hydraulic conductivity, suggesting that the hydrological characteristics of BSCs alter the chemical processes of their immediate surroundings via the physiological response (C acquisition) of the crust itself. These small scale results illustrate the wide range of hydrological properties associated with BSCs, and suggest associations between the ecological successional stage/functional form of BSCs and their ecohydrological role that needs further examination.

Toward seamless hydrologic predictions across spatial scales

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Rakovec, Oldrich; Zink, Matthias; Wanders, Niko; Eisner, Stephanie; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Attinger, Sabine

2017-01-01

Land surface and hydrologic models (LSMs/HMs) are used at diverse spatial resolutions ranging from catchment-scale (1-10 km) to global-scale (over 50 km) applications. Applying the same model structure at different spatial scales requires that the model estimates similar fluxes independent of the

Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

2002-01-01

Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost—A review

Science.gov (United States)

Walvoord, Michelle Ann; Kurylyk, Barret L.

2016-01-01

Where present, permafrost exerts a primary control on water fluxes, flowpaths, and distribution. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change are expected to modify the distribution of permafrost, leading to changing hydrologic conditions, including alterations in soil moisture, connectivity of inland waters, streamflow seasonality, and the partitioning of water stored above and below ground. The field of permafrost hydrology is undergoing rapid advancement with respect to multiscale observations, subsurface characterization, modeling, and integration with other disciplines. However, gaining predictive capability of the many interrelated consequences of climate change is a persistent challenge due to several factors. Observations of hydrologic change have been causally linked to permafrost thaw, but applications of process-based models needed to support and enhance the transferability of empirical linkages have often been restricted to generalized representations. Limitations stem from inadequate baseline permafrost and unfrozen hydrogeologic characterization, lack of historical data, and simplifications in structure and process representation needed to counter the high computational demands of cryohydrogeologic simulations. Further, due in part to the large degree of subsurface heterogeneity of permafrost landscapes and the nonuniformity in thaw patterns and rates, associations between various modes of permafrost thaw and hydrologic change are not readily scalable; even trajectories of change can differ. This review highlights promising advances in characterization and modeling of permafrost regions and presents ongoing research challenges toward projecting hydrologic and ecologic consequences of permafrost thaw at time and spatial scales that are useful to managers and researchers.

Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Ficklin, Darren L; Stewart, Iris T; Maurer, Edwin P

2013-01-01

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could

Large-scale multimedia modeling applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Droppo, J.G. Jr.; Buck, J.W.; Whelan, G.; Strenge, D.L.; Castleton, K.J.; Gelston, G.M.

1995-08-01

Over the past decade, the US Department of Energy (DOE) and other agencies have faced increasing scrutiny for a wide range of environmental issues related to past and current practices. A number of large-scale applications have been undertaken that required analysis of large numbers of potential environmental issues over a wide range of environmental conditions and contaminants. Several of these applications, referred to here as large-scale applications, have addressed long-term public health risks using a holistic approach for assessing impacts from potential waterborne and airborne transport pathways. Multimedia models such as the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) were designed for use in such applications. MEPAS integrates radioactive and hazardous contaminants impact computations for major exposure routes via air, surface water, ground water, and overland flow transport. A number of large-scale applications of MEPAS have been conducted to assess various endpoints for environmental and human health impacts. These applications are described in terms of lessons learned in the development of an effective approach for large-scale applications

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mondal

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Integrating remotely sensed surface water extent into continental scale hydrology.

Science.gov (United States)

Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Wanders, Niko; Burek, Peter; Salamon, Peter; de Roo, Ad

2016-12-01

In hydrological forecasting, data assimilation techniques are employed to improve estimates of initial conditions to update incorrect model states with observational data. However, the limited availability of continuous and up-to-date ground streamflow data is one of the main constraints for large-scale flood forecasting models. This is the first study that assess the impact of assimilating daily remotely sensed surface water extent at a 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution derived from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) into a global rainfall-runoff including large ungauged areas at the continental spatial scale in Africa and South America. Surface water extent is observed using a range of passive microwave remote sensors. The methodology uses the brightness temperature as water bodies have a lower emissivity. In a time series, the satellite signal is expected to vary with changes in water surface, and anomalies can be correlated with flood events. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a Monte-Carlo implementation of data assimilation and used here by applying random sampling perturbations to the precipitation inputs to account for uncertainty obtaining ensemble streamflow simulations from the LISFLOOD model. Results of the updated streamflow simulation are compared to baseline simulations, without assimilation of the satellite-derived surface water extent. Validation is done in over 100 in situ river gauges using daily streamflow observations in the African and South American continent over a one year period. Some of the more commonly used metrics in hydrology were calculated: KGE', NSE, PBIAS%, R 2 , RMSE, and VE. Results show that, for example, NSE score improved on 61 out of 101 stations obtaining significant improvements in both the timing and volume of the flow peaks. Whereas the validation at gauges located in lowland jungle obtained poorest performance mainly due to the closed forest influence on the satellite signal retrieval. The conclusion is that

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

Science.gov (United States)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-10-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

Impact of large-scale tides on cosmological distortions via redshift-space power spectrum

Science.gov (United States)

Akitsu, Kazuyuki; Takada, Masahiro

2018-03-01

Although large-scale perturbations beyond a finite-volume survey region are not direct observables, these affect measurements of clustering statistics of small-scale (subsurvey) perturbations in large-scale structure, compared with the ensemble average, via the mode-coupling effect. In this paper we show that a large-scale tide induced by scalar perturbations causes apparent anisotropic distortions in the redshift-space power spectrum of galaxies in a way depending on an alignment between the tide, wave vector of small-scale modes and line-of-sight direction. Using the perturbation theory of structure formation, we derive a response function of the redshift-space power spectrum to large-scale tide. We then investigate the impact of large-scale tide on estimation of cosmological distances and the redshift-space distortion parameter via the measured redshift-space power spectrum for a hypothetical large-volume survey, based on the Fisher matrix formalism. To do this, we treat the large-scale tide as a signal, rather than an additional source of the statistical errors, and show that a degradation in the parameter is restored if we can employ the prior on the rms amplitude expected for the standard cold dark matter (CDM) model. We also discuss whether the large-scale tide can be constrained at an accuracy better than the CDM prediction, if the effects up to a larger wave number in the nonlinear regime can be included.

Time series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of north-central Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Hawtree, D.; Nunes, J. P.; Keizer, J. J.; Jacinto, R.; Santos, J.; Rial-Rivas, M. E.; Boulet, A.-K.; Tavares-Wahren, F.; Feger, K.-H.

2015-07-01

The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant land cover change since the early 1900s, with large-scale replacement of natural vegetation types with plantation forests. This transition consisted of an initial conversion primarily to Pinus pinaster, followed by a secondary transition to Eucalyptus globulus. This land cover change is likely to have altered the hydrologic functioning of this region; however, these potential impacts are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 75 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936-2010. A number of hydrometeorological variables were analyzed using a combined Thiel-Sen/Mann-Kendall trend-testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there have been no significant reductions in streamflow over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which has occurred. This lack of change in streamflow is attributed to the specific characteristics of the watershed and land cover change. By contrast, a number of significant trends were found for baseflow index, with positive trends in the early data record (primarily during Pinus pinaster afforestation), followed by negative trends later in the data record (primarily during Eucalyptus globulus afforestation). These trends are attributed to land use and vegetation impacts on streamflow generating processes, both due to species differences and to alterations in soil properties (i.e., infiltration capacity, soil water repellency). These results highlight the importance of considering both vegetation types/dynamics and watershed characteristic when assessing hydrologic impacts, in particular with respect to soil properties.

Planetary Structures And Simulations Of Large-scale Impacts On Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Swift, Damian; El-Dasher, B.

2009-09-01

The impact of large meteroids is a possible cause for isolated orogeny on bodies devoid of tectonic activity. On Mars, there is a significant, but not perfect, correlation between large, isolated volcanoes and antipodal impact craters. On Mercury and the Moon, brecciated terrain and other unusual surface features can be found at the antipodes of large impact sites. On Earth, there is a moderate correlation between long-lived mantle hotspots at opposite sides of the planet, with meteoroid impact suggested as a possible cause. If induced by impacts, the mechanisms of orogeny and volcanism thus appear to vary between these bodies, presumably because of differences in internal structure. Continuum mechanics (hydrocode) simulations have been used to investigate the response of planetary bodies to impacts, requiring assumptions about the structure of the body: its composition and temperature profile, and the constitutive properties (equation of state, strength, viscosity) of the components. We are able to predict theoretically and test experimentally the constitutive properties of matter under planetary conditions, with reasonable accuracy. To provide a reference series of simulations, we have constructed self-consistent planetary structures using simplified compositions (Fe core and basalt-like mantle), which turn out to agree surprisingly well with the moments of inertia. We have performed simulations of large-scale impacts, studying the transmission of energy to the antipodes. For Mars, significant antipodal heating to depths of a few tens of kilometers was predicted from compression waves transmitted through the mantle. Such heating is a mechanism for volcanism on Mars, possibly in conjunction with crustal cracking induced by surface waves. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Hydrologic connectivity and the contribution of stream headwaters to ecological integrity at regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Mary C.; Pringle, C.M.; Jackson, C.R.

2007-01-01

Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water-mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two-thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large-scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free-flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large-scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream-system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and

Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

2012-01-01

The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology. PMID:23202833

Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

2013-04-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a

Large-scale hydrological modeling for calculating water stress indices: implications of improved spatiotemporal resolution, surface-groundwater differentiation, and uncertainty characterization.

Science.gov (United States)

Scherer, Laura; Venkatesh, Aranya; Karuppiah, Ramkumar; Pfister, Stephan

2015-04-21

Physical water scarcities can be described by water stress indices. These are often determined at an annual scale and a watershed level; however, such scales mask seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity within a watershed. In order to account for this level of detail, first and foremost, water availability estimates must be improved and refined. State-of-the-art global hydrological models such as WaterGAP and UNH/GRDC have previously been unable to reliably reflect water availability at the subbasin scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested as an alternative to global models, using the case study of the Mississippi watershed. While SWAT clearly outperformed the global models at the scale of a large watershed, it was judged to be unsuitable for global scale simulations due to the high calibration efforts required. The results obtained in this study show that global assessments miss out on key aspects related to upstream/downstream relations and monthly fluctuations, which are important both for the characterization of water scarcity in the Mississippi watershed and for water footprints. Especially in arid regions, where scarcity is high, these models provide unsatisfying results.

USGS Geospatial Fabric and Geo Data Portal for Continental Scale Hydrology Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Sampson, K. M.; Newman, A. J.; Blodgett, D. L.; Viger, R.; Hay, L.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

This presentation describes use of United States Geological Survey (USGS) data products and server-based resources for continental-scale hydrologic simulations. The USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems (MoWS) group provides a consistent national geospatial fabric built on NHDPlus. They have defined more than 100,000 hydrologic response units (HRUs) over the continental United States based on points of interest (POIs) and split into left and right bank based on the corresponding stream segment. Geophysical attributes are calculated for each HRU that can be used to define parameters in hydrologic and land-surface models. The Geo Data Portal (GDP) project at the USGS Center for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA) provides access to downscaled climate datasets and processing services via web-interface and python modules for creating forcing datasets for any polygon (such as an HRU). These resources greatly reduce the labor required for creating model-ready data in-house, contributing to efficient and effective modeling applications. We will present an application of this USGS cyber-infrastructure for assessments of impacts of climate change on hydrology over the continental United States.

Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

OpenAIRE

Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

2012-01-01

The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functio...

Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India

Science.gov (United States)

Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter

2013-04-01

Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi; Mishra, Ashok; Ruby Leung, L.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissisie, Yonas; Wang, Hao

2017-11-01

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation and use the Standardized Streamflow Index to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous U.S. in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

Evaluating the impact of hydrological uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Bellin, Alberto; Majone, Bruno; Bovolo, C. Isabella; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.

2010-05-01

Quantification of the impacts of climate change on water resources depends on the emission scenario, climate model, downscaling technique and impact model used to drive the impact study. Uncertainties in projections of climate models and those involved in the quantification of its hydrological response limit the understanding of future impacts and complicate the assessment of mitigation policies. This work analyses the effects of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (NE Spain), considering the combined effect of uncertainty characterizing both the driving Regional Climate Model (RCM) and hydrological parameterization. In addition, we considered the relative importance of these two contributions. Hydrological simulations in a few test catchments within the basin were performed by using the SWAT model, a widely used hydrological model often applied to large-scale watersheds. After a preliminary sensitivity analysis with Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT), the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology was used for selecting hydrological parameter sets that best reproduced the observed streamflow during the control period from 1961 to 1991, in terms of percentage of measured data bracketed by the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), and the ratio between the average thickness of the 95PPU band and the standard deviation of the measured data. Following validation, the same parameter sets were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflows. A simple bias-correction methodology was used for downscaling daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 RCM time-slice experiments. These were obtained from the PRUDENCE project for a control period (1961-1990) and for a future time period (2071-2100) using the medium-high SRES A2 emissions scenario. The bias-corrected future RCM scenarios were then used to drive the hydrological simulations during the future period

Tools for Virtual Collaboration Designed for High Resolution Hydrologic Research with Continental-Scale Data Support

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, Christopher; Leonard, Lorne; Shi, Yuning; Bhatt, Gopal; Hanson, Paul; Gil, Yolanda; Yu, Xuan

2015-04-01

Using a series of recent examples and papers we explore some progress and potential for virtual (cyber-) collaboration inspired by access to high resolution, harmonized public-sector data at continental scales [1]. The first example describes 7 meso-scale catchments in Pennsylvania, USA where the watershed is forced by climate reanalysis and IPCC future climate scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). We show how existing public-sector data and community models are currently able to resolve fine-scale eco-hydrologic processes regarding wetland response to climate change [2]. The results reveal that regional climate change is only part of the story, with large variations in flood and drought response associated with differences in terrain, physiography, landuse and/or hydrogeology. The importance of community-driven virtual testbeds are demonstrated in the context of Critical Zone Observatories, where earth scientists from around the world are organizing hydro-geophysical data and model results to explore new processes that couple hydrologic models with land-atmosphere interaction, biogeochemical weathering, carbon-nitrogen cycle, landscape evolution and ecosystem services [3][4]. Critical Zone cyber-research demonstrates how data-driven model development requires a flexible computational structure where process modules are relatively easy to incorporate and where new data structures can be implemented [5]. From the perspective of "Big-Data" the paper points out that extrapolating results from virtual observatories to catchments at continental scales, will require centralized or cloud-based cyberinfrastructure as a necessary condition for effectively sharing petabytes of data and model results [6]. Finally we outline how innovative cyber-science is supporting earth-science learning, sharing and exploration through the use of on-line tools where hydrologists and limnologists are sharing data and models for simulating the coupled impacts of catchment

Regionalisation of Hydrological Indices to Assess Land-Use Change Impacts in the Tropical Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Buytaert, W.; Ochoa Tocachi, B. F.

2014-12-01

Andean ecosystems are major water sources for cities and communities located in the Tropical Andes; however, there is a considerable lack of knowledge about their hydrology. Two problems are especially important: (i) the lack of monitoring to assess the impacts of historical land-use and cover change and degradation (LUCCD) at catchment scale, and (ii) the high variability in climatic and hydrological conditions that complicate the evaluation of land management practices. This study analyses how a reliable LUCCD impacts assessment can be performed in an environment of high variability combined with data-scarcity and low-quality records. We use data from participatory hydrological monitoring activities in 20 catchments distributed along the tropical Andes. A set of 46 hydrological indices is calculated and regionalized by relating them to 42 physical catchment properties. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed to maximise available data while minimising redundancy in the sets of variables. Hydrological model parameters are constrained by estimated indices, and different behavioural predictions are assembled to provide a generalised response on which we assess LUCCD impacts. Results from this methodology show that the attributed effects of LUCCD in pair-wise catchment comparisons may be overstated or hidden by different sources of uncertainty, including measurement inaccuracies and model structural errors. We propose extrapolation and evaluation in ungauged catchments as a way to regionalize LUCCD predictions and to provide statistically significant conclusions in the Andean region. These estimations may deliver reliable knowledge to evaluate the hydrological impact of different watershed management practices.

Hydrological functions of a mine-impacted and natural peatland-dominated watershed, James Bay Lowland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa Leclair

2015-09-01

New hydrological insights: Deep seepage (groundwater recharge varied with marine sediment thickness and represented a significant loss to the local system. Large downward fluxes were also measured in fen systems that are typically local discharge zones. Evaporation rates were also found to be lower in the bogs and fens and where impacted by lower water tables. When evaluating the water balance, with only 14.5% of the watershed impacted by the mine, the hydrological function of the entire watershed is more driven by seasonal climate variations than mine dewatering.

Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: a test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Jong, S.M. de; Geer, F.C. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

The current generation of large-scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component. Large-scale groundwater models, involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries, are still rare mainly due to a lack of hydro-geological data which are usually only available in

Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: A test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Jong, S.M. de; Geer, F.C. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

The current generation of large-scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component. Large-scale groundwater models, involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries, are still rare mainly due to a lack of hydro-geological data which are usually only available in developed

Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred Fokko Hattermann

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

Quantifying the impact of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regimes in a large floodplain lake: Poyang Lake

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Jing; Zhang, Qi; Ye, Xuchun; Zhang, Dan; Bai, Peng

2018-06-01

The hydrological regime of a lake is largely dependent on its bathymetry. A dramatic water level reduction has occurred in Poyang Lake in recent years, coinciding with significant bed erosion. Few studies have focused on the influence of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regime in such a complex river-lake floodplain system. This study combined hydrological data and a physically based hydrodynamic model to quantify the influence of the bathymetric changes (1998-2010) on the water level spatiotemporal distribution in Poyang Lake, based on a dry year (2006), a wet year (2010) and an average year (2000-2010). The following conclusions can be drawn from the results of this study: (1) The bed erosion of the northern outlet channel averaged 3 m, resulting in a decrease in the water level by 1.2-2 m in the northern channels (the most significantly influenced areas) and approximately 0.3 m in the central lake areas during low-level periods. The water levels below 16 m and 14 m were significantly affected during the rising period and recession period, respectively. The water level reduction was enhanced due to lower water levels. (2) The water surface profiles adjusted, and the rising and recession rates of the water level increased by 0.5-3.1 cm/d at the lake outlet. The bathymetric influence extended across the entire lake due to the emptying effect, resulting in a change in the water level distribution. The average annual outflow increased by 6.8%. (3) The bathymetric changes contributed approximately 14.4% to the extreme low water level in autumn 2006 and enhanced the drought in the dry season. This study quantified the impact of the bathymetric changes on the lake water levels, thereby providing a better understanding of the potential effects of continued sand mining operations and providing scientific explanations for the considerable variations in the hydrological regimes of Poyang Lake. Moreover, this study attempts to provide a reference for the assessment of

Impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes in a mountain stream

Science.gov (United States)

Majerova, M.; Neilson, B. T.; Schmadel, N. M.; Wheaton, J. M.; Snow, C. J.

2015-08-01

Beaver dams affect hydrologic processes, channel complexity, and stream temperature in part by inundating riparian areas, influencing groundwater-surface water interactions, and changing fluvial processes within stream systems. We explored the impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes at different spatial and temporal scales within a mountain stream in northern Utah over a 3-year period spanning pre- and post-beaver colonization. Using continuous stream discharge, stream temperature, synoptic tracer experiments, and groundwater elevation measurements, we documented pre-beaver conditions in the first year of the study. In the second year, we captured the initial effects of three beaver dams, while the third year included the effects of ten dams. After beaver colonization, reach-scale (~ 750 m in length) discharge observations showed a shift from slightly losing to gaining. However, at the smaller sub-reach scale (ranging from 56 to 185 m in length), the discharge gains and losses increased in variability due to more complex flow pathways with beaver dams forcing overland flow, increasing surface and subsurface storage, and increasing groundwater elevations. At the reach scale, temperatures were found to increase by 0.38 °C (3.8 %), which in part is explained by a 230 % increase in mean reach residence time. At the smallest, beaver dam scale (including upstream ponded area, beaver dam structure, and immediate downstream section), there were notable increases in the thermal heterogeneity where warmer and cooler niches were created. Through the quantification of hydrologic and thermal changes at different spatial and temporal scales, we document increased variability during post-beaver colonization and highlight the need to understand the impacts of beaver dams on stream ecosystems and their potential role in stream restoration.

Scaling considerations related to interactions of hydrologic, pedologic and geomorphic processes (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Sidle, R. C.

2013-12-01

Hydrologic, pedologic, and geomorphic processes are strongly interrelated and affected by scale. These interactions exert important controls on runoff generation, preferential flow, contaminant transport, surface erosion, and mass wasting. Measurement of hydraulic conductivity (K) and infiltration capacity at small scales generally underestimates these values for application at larger field, hillslope, or catchment scales. Both vertical and slope-parallel saturated flow and related contaminant transport are often influenced by interconnected networks of preferential flow paths, which are not captured in K measurements derived from soil cores. Using such K values in models may underestimate water and contaminant fluxes and runoff peaks. As shown in small-scale runoff plot studies, infiltration rates are typically lower than integrated infiltration across a hillslope or in headwater catchments. The resultant greater infiltration-excess overland flow in small plots compared to larger landscapes is attributed to the lack of preferential flow continuity; plot border effects; greater homogeneity of rainfall inputs, topography and soil physical properties; and magnified effects of hydrophobicity in small plots. At the hillslope scale, isolated areas with high infiltration capacity can greatly reduce surface runoff and surface erosion at the hillslope scale. These hydropedologic and hydrogeomorphic processes are also relevant to both occurrence and timing of landslides. The focus of many landslide studies has typically been either on small-scale vadose zone process and how these affect soil mechanical properties or on larger scale, more descriptive geomorphic studies. One of the issues in translating laboratory-based investigations on geotechnical behavior of soils to field scales where landslides occur is the characterization of large-scale hydrological processes and flow paths that occur in heterogeneous and anisotropic porous media. These processes are not only affected

Landscape-Scale Disturbance: Insights into the Complexity of Catchment Hydrology in the Mountaintop Removal Mining Region of the Eastern United States

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Andrew J. Miller

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Few land disturbances impact watersheds at the scale and extent of mountaintop removal mining (MTM. This practice removes forests, soils and bedrock to gain access to underground coal that results in likely permanent and wholesale changes that impact catchment hydrology, geochemistry and ecosystem health. MTM is the dominant driver of land cover changes in the central Appalachian Mountains region of the United States, converting forests to mine lands and burying headwater streams. Despite its dominance on the landscape, determining the hydrological impacts of MTM is complicated by underground coal mines that significantly alter groundwater hydrology. To provide insight into how coal mining impacts headwater catchments, we compared the hydrologic responses of an MTM and forested catchment using event rainfall-runoff analysis, modeling and isotopic approaches. Despite similar rainfall characteristics, hydrology in the two catchments differed in significant ways, but both catchments demonstrated threshold-mediated hydrologic behavior that was attributed to transient storage and the release of runoff from underground mines. Results suggest that underground mines are important controls for runoff generation in both obviously disturbed and seemingly undisturbed catchments and interact in uncertain ways with disturbance from MTM. This paper summarizes our results and demonstrates the complexity of catchment hydrology in the MTM region.

Investigating impacts of natural and human-induced environmental changes on hydrological processes and flood hazards using a GIS-based hydrological/hydraulic model and remote sensing data

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lei

Natural and human-induced environmental changes have been altering the earth's surface and hydrological processes, and thus directly contribute to the severity of flood hazards. To understand these changes and their impacts, this research developed a GIS-based hydrological and hydraulic modeling system, which incorporates state-of-the-art remote sensing data to simulate flood under various scenarios. The conceptual framework and technical issues of incorporating multi-scale remote sensing data have been addressed. This research develops an object-oriented hydrological modeling framework. Compared with traditional lumped or cell-based distributed hydrological modeling frameworks, the object-oriented framework allows basic spatial hydrologic units to have various size and irregular shape. This framework is capable of assimilating various GIS and remotely-sensed data with different spatial resolutions. It ensures the computational efficiency, while preserving sufficient spatial details of input data and model outputs. Sensitivity analysis and comparison of high resolution LIDAR DEM with traditional USGS 30m resolution DEM suggests that the use of LIDAR DEMs can greatly reduce uncertainty in calibration of flow parameters in the hydrologic model and hence increase the reliability of modeling results. In addition, subtle topographic features and hydrologic objects like surface depressions and detention basins can be extracted from the high resolution LiDAR DEMs. An innovative algorithm has been developed to efficiently delineate surface depressions and detention basins from LiDAR DEMs. Using a time series of Landsat images, a retrospective analysis of surface imperviousness has been conducted to assess the hydrologic impact of urbanization. The analysis reveals that with rapid urbanization the impervious surface has been increased from 10.1% to 38.4% for the case study area during 1974--2002. As a result, the peak flow for a 100-year flood event has increased by 20% and

Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin

Science.gov (United States)

Masood, M.; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Hanasaki, N.; Takeuchi, K.

2014-06-01

The intensity, duration, and geographic extent of floods in Bangladesh mostly depend on the combined influences of three river systems, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM). In addition, climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. However, the assessment of climate change impacts on basin-scale hydrology by using well-constrained hydrologic modelling has rarely been conducted for GBM basins due to the lack of data for model calibration and validation. In this study, a macro-scale hydrologic model H08 has been applied regionally over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km) by integrating the fine-resolution (~0.5 km) DEM data for accurate river networks delineation. The model has been calibrated via analyzing model parameter sensitivity and validated based on a long-term observed daily streamflow data. The impact of climate change on not only the runoff, but also the basin-scale hydrology including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and net radiation have been assessed in this study through three time-slice experiments; present-day (1979-2003), near-future (2015-2039) and far-future (2075-2099) periods. Results shows that, by the end of 21st century (a) the entire GBM basin is projected to be warmed by ~3°C (b) the changes of mean precipitation are projected to be +14.0, +10.4, and +15.2%, and the changes of mean runoff to be +14, +15, and +18% in the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna basin respectively (c) evapotranspiration is predicted to increase significantly for the entire GBM basins (Brahmaputra: +14.4%, Ganges: +9.4%, Meghna: +8.8%) due to increased net radiation (Brahmaputra: +6%, Ganges: +5.9%, Meghna: +3.3%) as well as warmer air temperature. Changes of hydrologic variables will be larger in dry season (November-April) than that in wet season (May-October). Amongst three basins, Meghna shows the largest hydrological

The Saskatchewan River Basin - a large scale observatory for water security research (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Wheater, H. S.

2013-12-01

multiple jurisdictions. The SaskRB has therefore been developed as a large scale observatory, now a Regional Hydroclimate Project of the World Climate Research Programme's GEWEX project, and is available to contribute to the emerging North American Water Program. State-of-the-art hydro-ecological experimental sites have been developed for the key biomes, and a river and lake biogeochemical research facility, focussed on impacts of nutrients and exotic chemicals. Data are integrated at SaskRB scale to support the development of improved large scale climate and hydrological modelling products, the development of DSS systems for local, provincial and basin-scale management, and the development of related social science research, engaging stakeholders in the research and exploring their values and priorities for water security. The observatory provides multiple scales of observation and modelling required to develop: a) new climate, hydrological and ecological science and modelling tools to address environmental change in key environments, and their integrated effects and feedbacks at large catchment scale, b) new tools needed to support river basin management under uncertainty, including anthropogenic controls on land and water management and c) the place-based focus for the development of new transdisciplinary science.

Large-scale runoff generation - parsimonious parameterisation using high-resolution topography

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, L.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.-Y.

2011-08-01

World water resources have primarily been analysed by global-scale hydrological models in the last decades. Runoff generation in many of these models are based on process formulations developed at catchments scales. The division between slow runoff (baseflow) and fast runoff is primarily governed by slope and spatial distribution of effective water storage capacity, both acting at very small scales. Many hydrological models, e.g. VIC, account for the spatial storage variability in terms of statistical distributions; such models are generally proven to perform well. The statistical approaches, however, use the same runoff-generation parameters everywhere in a basin. The TOPMODEL concept, on the other hand, links the effective maximum storage capacity with real-world topography. Recent availability of global high-quality, high-resolution topographic data makes TOPMODEL attractive as a basis for a physically-based runoff-generation algorithm at large scales, even if its assumptions are not valid in flat terrain or for deep groundwater systems. We present a new runoff-generation algorithm for large-scale hydrology based on TOPMODEL concepts intended to overcome these problems. The TRG (topography-derived runoff generation) algorithm relaxes the TOPMODEL equilibrium assumption so baseflow generation is not tied to topography. TRG only uses the topographic index to distribute average storage to each topographic index class. The maximum storage capacity is proportional to the range of topographic index and is scaled by one parameter. The distribution of storage capacity within large-scale grid cells is obtained numerically through topographic analysis. The new topography-derived distribution function is then inserted into a runoff-generation framework similar VIC's. Different basin parts are parameterised by different storage capacities, and different shapes of the storage-distribution curves depend on their topographic characteristics. The TRG algorithm is driven by the

Mountaintop Removal Mining and Catchment Hydrology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J. Miller

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Mountaintop mining and valley fill (MTM/VF coal extraction, practiced in the Central Appalachian region, represents a dramatic landscape-scale disturbance. MTM operations remove as much as 300 m of rock, soil, and vegetation from ridge tops to access deep coal seams and much of this material is placed in adjacent headwater streams altering landcover, drainage network, and topography. In spite of its scale, extent, and potential for continued use, the effects MTM/VF on catchment hydrology is poorly understood. Previous reviews focus on water quality and ecosystem health impacts, but little is known about how MTM/VF affects hydrology, particularly the movement and storage of water, hence the hydrologic processes that ultimately control flood generation, water chemistry, and biology. This paper aggregates the existing knowledge about the hydrologic impacts of MTM/VF to identify areas where further scientific investigation is needed. While contemporary surface mining generally increases peak and total runoff, the limited MTM/VF studies reveal significant variability in hydrologic response. Significant knowledge gaps relate to limited understanding of hydrologic processes in these systems. Until the hydrologic impact of this practice is better understood, efforts to reduce water quantity and quality problems and ecosystem degradation will be difficult to achieve.

Perturbations in the initial soil moisture conditions: Impacts on hydrologic simulation in a large river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Niroula, Sundar; Halder, Subhadeep; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-06-01

Real time hydrologic forecasting requires near accurate initial condition of soil moisture; however, continuous monitoring of soil moisture is not operational in many regions, such as, in Ganga basin, extended in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. Here, we examine the impacts of perturbation/error in the initial soil moisture conditions on simulated soil moisture and streamflow in Ganga basin and its propagation, during the summer monsoon season (June to September). This provides information regarding the required minimum duration of model simulation for attaining the model stability. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity model for hydrological simulations after validation. Multiple hydrologic simulations are performed, each of 21 days, initialized on every 5th day of the monsoon season for deficit, surplus and normal monsoon years. Each of these simulations is performed with the initial soil moisture condition obtained from long term runs along with positive and negative perturbations. The time required for the convergence of initial errors is obtained for all the cases. We find a quick convergence for the year with high rainfall as well as for the wet spells within a season. We further find high spatial variations in the time required for convergence; the region with high precipitation such as Lower Ganga basin attains convergence at a faster rate. Furthermore, deeper soil layers need more time for convergence. Our analysis is the first attempt on understanding the sensitivity of hydrological simulations of Ganga basin on initial soil moisture conditions. The results obtained here may be useful in understanding the spin-up requirements for operational hydrologic forecasts.

Analysis for preliminary evaluation of discrete fracture flow and large-scale permeability in sedimentary rocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanehiro, B.Y.; Lai, C.H.; Stow, S.H.

1987-05-01

Conceptual models for sedimentary rock settings that could be used in future evaluation and suitability studies are being examined through the DOE Repository Technology Program. One area of concern for the hydrologic aspects of these models is discrete fracture flow analysis as related to the estimation of the size of the representative elementary volume, evaluation of the appropriateness of continuum assumptions and estimation of the large-scale permeabilities of sedimentary rocks. A basis for preliminary analysis of flow in fracture systems of the types that might be expected to occur in low permeability sedimentary rocks is presented. The approach used involves numerical modeling of discrete fracture flow for the configuration of a large-scale hydrologic field test directed at estimation of the size of the representative elementary volume and large-scale permeability. Analysis of fracture data on the basis of this configuration is expected to provide a preliminary indication of the scale at which continuum assumptions can be made

Understanding The Individual Impacts Of Human Interventions And Climate Change On Hydrologic Variables In India

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, T.; Chhabra, S., Jr.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

We have quantified the historical climate change and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change impacts on the hydrologic variables of Indian subcontinent by using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) mesoscale model at 0.5° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. The results indicate that the climate change in India has predominating effects on the basic water balance components such as water yield, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This analysis is with the assumption of naturalised hydrologic cycle, i.e., the impacts of human interventions like construction of controlled (primarily dams, diversions and reservoirs) and water withdrawals structures are not taken into account. The assumption is unrealistic since there are numerous anthropogenic disturbances which result in large changes on vegetation composition and distribution patterns. These activities can directly or indirectly influence the dynamics of water cycle; subsequently affecting the hydrologic processes like plant transpiration, infiltration, evaporation, runoff and sublimation. Here, we have quantified the human interventions by using the reservoir and irrigation module of VIC model which incorporates the irrigation schemes, reservoir characteristics and water withdrawals. The impact of human interventions on hydrologic variables in many grids are found more predominant than climate change and might be detrimental to water resources at regional level. This spatial pattern of impacts will facilitate water manager and planners to design and station hydrologic structures for a sustainable water resources management.

Hydrologic effects of large southwestern USA wildfires significantly increase regional water supply: fact or fiction?

Science.gov (United States)

Wine, M. L.; Cadol, D.

2016-08-01

In recent years climate change and historic fire suppression have increased the frequency of large wildfires in the southwestern USA, motivating study of the hydrological consequences of these wildfires at point and watershed scales, typically over short periods of time. These studies have revealed that reduced soil infiltration capacity and reduced transpiration due to tree canopy combustion increase streamflow at the watershed scale. However, the degree to which these local increases in runoff propagate to larger scales—relevant to urban and agricultural water supply—remains largely unknown, particularly in semi-arid mountainous watersheds co-dominated by winter snowmelt and the North American monsoon. To address this question, we selected three New Mexico watersheds—the Jemez (1223 km2), Mogollon (191 km2), and Gila (4807 km2)—that together have been affected by over 100 wildfires since 1982. We then applied climate-driven linear models to test for effects of fire on streamflow metrics after controlling for climatic variability. Here we show that, after controlling for climatic and snowpack variability, significantly more streamflow discharged from the Gila watershed for three to five years following wildfires, consistent with increased regional water yield due to enhanced infiltration-excess overland flow and groundwater recharge at the large watershed scale. In contrast, we observed no such increase in discharge from the Jemez watershed following wildfires. Fire regimes represent a key difference between the contrasting responses of the Jemez and Gila watersheds with the latter experiencing more frequent wildfires, many caused by lightning strikes. While hydrologic dynamics at the scale of large watersheds were previously thought to be climatically dominated, these results suggest that if one fifth or more of a large watershed has been burned in the previous three to five years, significant increases in water yield can be expected.

Economic and agricultural transformation through large-scale farming : impacts of large-scale farming on local economic development, household food security and the environment in Ethiopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bekele, M.S.

2016-01-01

This study examined impacts of large-scale farming in Ethiopia on local economic development, household food security, incomes, employment, and the environment. The study adopted a mixed research approach in which both qualitative and quantitative data were generated from secondary and primary

Extracting climate signals from large hydrological data cubes using multivariate statistics - an example for the Mediterranean basin

Science.gov (United States)

Kauer, Agnes; Dorigo, Wouter; Bauer-Marschallinger, Bernhard

2017-04-01

Global warming is expected to change ocean-atmosphere oscillation patterns, e.g. the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and may thus have a substantial impact on water resources over land. Yet, the link between climate oscillations and terrestrial hydrology has large uncertainties. In particular, the climate in the Mediterranean basin is expected to be sensitive to global warming as it may increase insufficient and irregular water supply and lead to more frequent and intense droughts and heavy precipitation events. The ever increasing need for water in tourism and agriculture reinforce the problem. Therefore, the monitoring and better understanding of the hydrological cycle are crucial for this area. This study seeks to quantify the effect of regional climate modes, e.g. the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean. We apply Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to a wide range of hydrological datasets to extract the major modes of variation over the study period. We use more than ten datasets describing precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and changes in water mass with study periods ranging from one to three decades depending on the dataset. The resulting EOFs are then examined for correlations with regional climate modes using Spearman rank correlation analysis. This is done for the entire time span of the EOFs and for monthly and seasonally sampled data. We find relationships between the hydrological datasets and the climate modes NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Eastern Atlantic (EA), and Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA). Analyses of monthly and seasonally sampled data reveal high correlations especially in the winter months. However, the spatial extent of the data cube considered for the analyses have a large impact on the results. Our statistical analyses suggest an impact of regional climate modes on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean area and may provide valuable input for evaluating process

1:250,000-scale Hydrologic Units of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Steeves, Peter; Nebert, Douglas

1994-01-01

The Geographic Information Retrieval and Analysis System (GIRAS) was developed in the mid 70s to put into digital form a numberof data layers which were of interest to the USGS. One of these data layers was the Hydrologic Units. The map is based on the Hydrologic Unit Maps published by the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Water Data Coordination, together with the list descriptions and name of region, subregion, accounting units, and cataloging unit. The hydrologic units are encoded with an eight-digit number that indicates the hydrologic region (first two digits), hydrologic subregion (second two digits), accounting unit (third two digits), and cataloging unit (fourth two digits). The data produced by GIRAS was originally collected at a scale of 1:250K. Some areas, notably major cities in the west, were recompiled at a scale of 1:100K. In order to join the data together and use the data in a geographic information system (GIS) the data were processed in the ARC/INFO GUS software package. Within the GIS, the data were edgematched and the neatline boundaries between maps were removed to create a single data set for the conterminous

Sizing and scaling requirements of a large-scale physical model for code validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khaleel, R.; Legore, T.

1990-01-01

Model validation is an important consideration in application of a code for performance assessment and therefore in assessing the long-term behavior of the engineered and natural barriers of a geologic repository. Scaling considerations relevant to porous media flow are reviewed. An analysis approach is presented for determining the sizing requirements of a large-scale, hydrology physical model. The physical model will be used to validate performance assessment codes that evaluate the long-term behavior of the repository isolation system. Numerical simulation results for sizing requirements are presented for a porous medium model in which the media properties are spatially uncorrelated

HIS Design: Big Data that Supports Hydrologic Modeling from Continental to Hillslope Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, T. C.; Deemy, J. B.; Younger, S. E.; Kirk, S. E.; Brockman, L. E.

2016-12-01

Analogous to Google Maps, hydrologic data, information, and knowledge resolve differently depending upon the spatial and temporal scales of interest. We show how a multi-scale hydrologic information system (HIS) can be designed and populated for a broad range of spatial (e.g., hillslope, local, regional, continental) and temporal (e.g., current, recent, historic, geologic) scales. Surface and subsurface hydrologic and transport processes are assumed to be scale-dependent, requiring unique governing equations and parameters at each scale. This robust and flexible framework is designed to meet the inventory, monitoring, and management needs of multiple federal agencies (i.e., Forest Service, National Park Service, Fish and Wildlife Service, National Wildlife Reserves). Multi-scale HIS examples are provided using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for the Southeastern US.

Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Wanders

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

Urban Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling - Resolution Modeling Comparison for Water Quantity and Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Fry, T. J.; Maxwell, R. M.

2014-12-01

Urbanization presents challenging water resource problems for communities worldwide. The hydromodifications associated with urbanization results in increased runoff rates and volumes and increased peak flows. These hydrologic changes can lead to increased erosion and stream destabilization, decreased evapotranspiration, decreased ground water recharge, increases in pollutant loading, and localized anthropogenic climate change or Urban Heat Islands. Stormwater represents a complex and dynamic component of the urban water cycle that requires careful mitigation. With the implementation of Phase II rules under the CWA, stormwater management is shifting from a drainage-efficiency focus to a natural systems focus. The natural system focus, referred to as Low Impact Development (LID), or Green Infrastructure, uses best management practices (BMPs) to reduce the impacts caused by urbanization hydromodification. Large-scale patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex and it is unclear what the large-scale impacts of green infrastructure are on the water cycle. High resolution physically based hydrologic models can be used to more accurately simulate the urban hydrologic cycle. These types of models tend to be more dynamic and allow for greater flexibility in evaluating and accounting for various hydrologic processes in the urban environment that may be lost with lower resolution conceptual models. We propose to evaluate the effectiveness of high resolution models to accurately represent and determine the urban hydrologic cycle with the overall goal of being able to accurately assess the impacts of LID BMPs in urban environments. We propose to complete a rigorous model intercomparison between ParFlow and FLO-2D. Both of these models can be scaled to higher resolutions, allow for rainfall to be spatially and temporally input, and solve the shallow water equations. Each model is different in the way it accounts for infiltration, initial abstraction losses

Initial hydrological modelling to assess impacts of different land uses on process hydrology in a small-scale semi-arid catchment in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Steudel, T

2010-06-01

Full Text Available in those areas. GIS DATA ? highly precise GPS field measurements and contour line information for digital elevation model (DEM) generation and watershed derivation ? different raster layers (spatial resolution = 7.6 m) containing plot specific...2000 is capable of representing the hydrological conditions within such a small- scale catchment (Fig. 5, Fig 6) OUTLOOK ? J2000 can be used for a detailed analysis of the individual hydrological components affected by land use change ? further...

The economics and environmental impacts of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world

Science.gov (United States)

Decarolis, Joseph Frank

Serious climate change mitigation aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will require a radical shift to a decarbonized energy supply. The electric power sector will be a primary target for deep reductions in CO2 emissions because electric power plants are among the largest and most manageable point sources of emissions. With respect to new capacity, wind power is currently one of the most inexpensive ways to produce electricity without CO2 emissions and it may have a significant role to play in a carbon constrained world. Yet most research in the wind industry remains focused on near term issues, while energy system models that focus on century-long time horizons undervalue wind by imposing exogenous limits on growth. This thesis fills a critical gap in the literature by taking a closer look at the cost and environmental impacts of large-scale wind. Estimates of the average cost of wind generation---now roughly 4¢/kWh---do not address the cons arising from the spatial distribution and intermittency of wind. This thesis develops a theoretical framework for assessing the intermittency cost of wind. In addition, an economic characterization of a wind system is provided in which long-distance electricity transmission, storage, and gas turbines are used to supplement variable wind power output to meet a time-varying load. With somewhat optimistic assumptions about the cost of wind turbines, the use of wind to serve 50% of demand adds ˜1--2¢/kWh to the cost of electricity, a cost comparable to that of other large-scale low carbon technologies. This thesis also explores the environmental impacts posed by large-scale wind. Though avian mortality and noise caused controversy in the early years of wind development, improved technology and exhaustive siting assessments have minimized their impact. The aesthetic valuation of wind farms can be improved significantly with better design, siting, construction, and maintenance procedures, but opposition may

Hydrological-niche models predict water plant functional group distributions in diverse wetland types.

Science.gov (United States)

Deane, David C; Nicol, Jason M; Gehrig, Susan L; Harding, Claire; Aldridge, Kane T; Goodman, Abigail M; Brookes, Justin D

2017-06-01

Human use of water resources threatens environmental water supplies. If resource managers are to develop policies that avoid unacceptable ecological impacts, some means to predict ecosystem response to changes in water availability is necessary. This is difficult to achieve at spatial scales relevant for water resource management because of the high natural variability in ecosystem hydrology and ecology. Water plant functional groups classify species with similar hydrological niche preferences together, allowing a qualitative means to generalize community responses to changes in hydrology. We tested the potential for functional groups in making quantitative prediction of water plant functional group distributions across diverse wetland types over a large geographical extent. We sampled wetlands covering a broad range of hydrogeomorphic and salinity conditions in South Australia, collecting both hydrological and floristic data from 687 quadrats across 28 wetland hydrological gradients. We built hydrological-niche models for eight water plant functional groups using a range of candidate models combining different surface inundation metrics. We then tested the predictive performance of top-ranked individual and averaged models for each functional group. Cross validation showed that models achieved acceptable predictive performance, with correct classification rates in the range 0.68-0.95. Model predictions can be made at any spatial scale that hydrological data are available and could be implemented in a geographical information system. We show the response of water plant functional groups to inundation is consistent enough across diverse wetland types to quantify the probability of hydrological impacts over regional spatial scales. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Time-series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of North-Central Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Hawtree, D.; Nunes, J. P.; Keizer, J. J.; Jacinto, R.; Santos, J.; Rial-Rivas, M. E.; Boulet, A.-K.; Tavares-Wahren, F.; Feger, K.-H.

2014-11-01

The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus since the early 1900s; however, the long-term hydrologic impacts of this land cover change are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 7 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936 to 2010. Meteorological and hydrological records were analysed using a combined Thiel-Sen/Mann-Kendall trend testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there had been no significant reduction in streamflow yield over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which had taken place. This lack of change is attributed to both the characteristics of the watershed and the nature of the land cover change. By contrast, a number of significant trends were found for baseflow index, which showed positive trends in the early data record (primarily during Pinus pinaster afforestation), followed by a reversal to negative trends later in the data record (primarily during Eucalyptus globulus afforestation). These changes are attributed to vegetation impacts on streamflow generating processes, both due to the species differences and to alterations in soil properties (i.e. promoting water repellency of the topsoil). These results highlight the importance of considering both vegetation types/dynamics and watershed characteristic when assessing hydrologic impacts, in particular with respect to soil properties.

Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

Environmental Impacts From the Installation and Operation of Large-scale Solar Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fthenakis, V.; Turney, Damon

2011-04-23

Large-scale solar power plants are being developed at a rapid rate, and are setting up to use thousands or millions of acres of land globally. The environmental issues related to the installation and operation phases of such facilities have not, so far, been addressed comprehensively in the literature. Here we identify and appraise 32 impacts from these phases, under the themes of land use intensity, human health and well-being, plant and animal life, geohydrological resources, and climate change. Our appraisals assume that electricity generated by new solar power facilities will displace electricity from traditional U.S. generation technologies. Altogether we find 22 of the considered 32 impacts to be beneficial. Of the remaining 10 impacts, 4 are neutral, and 6 require further research before they can be appraised. None of the impacts are negative relative to traditional power generation. We rank the impacts in terms of priority, and find all the high-priority impacts to be beneficial. In quantitative terms, large-scale solar power plants occupy the same or less land per kW h than coal power plant life cycles. Removal of forests to make space for solar power causes CO{sub 2} emissions as high as 36 g CO{sub 2} kW h{sup -1}, which is a significant contribution to the life cycle CO{sub 2} emissions of solar power, but is still low compared to CO{sub 2} emissions from coal-based electricity that are about 1100 g CO{sub 2} kW h{sup -1}.

Large-scale runoff generation – parsimonious parameterisation using high-resolution topography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Gong

2011-08-01

Full Text Available World water resources have primarily been analysed by global-scale hydrological models in the last decades. Runoff generation in many of these models are based on process formulations developed at catchments scales. The division between slow runoff (baseflow and fast runoff is primarily governed by slope and spatial distribution of effective water storage capacity, both acting at very small scales. Many hydrological models, e.g. VIC, account for the spatial storage variability in terms of statistical distributions; such models are generally proven to perform well. The statistical approaches, however, use the same runoff-generation parameters everywhere in a basin. The TOPMODEL concept, on the other hand, links the effective maximum storage capacity with real-world topography. Recent availability of global high-quality, high-resolution topographic data makes TOPMODEL attractive as a basis for a physically-based runoff-generation algorithm at large scales, even if its assumptions are not valid in flat terrain or for deep groundwater systems. We present a new runoff-generation algorithm for large-scale hydrology based on TOPMODEL concepts intended to overcome these problems. The TRG (topography-derived runoff generation algorithm relaxes the TOPMODEL equilibrium assumption so baseflow generation is not tied to topography. TRG only uses the topographic index to distribute average storage to each topographic index class. The maximum storage capacity is proportional to the range of topographic index and is scaled by one parameter. The distribution of storage capacity within large-scale grid cells is obtained numerically through topographic analysis. The new topography-derived distribution function is then inserted into a runoff-generation framework similar VIC's. Different basin parts are parameterised by different storage capacities, and different shapes of the storage-distribution curves depend on their topographic characteristics. The TRG algorithm

Large-scale sulfolane-impacted soil remediation at a gas plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavoie, G.; Rockwell, K. [Biogenie Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

2006-07-01

A large-scale sulfolane-impacted soil remediation project at a gas plant in central Alberta was discussed. The plant was operational from the 1960s to present and the former operation involved the Sulfinol process which resulted in groundwater contamination. In 2005, the client wanted to address the sources area. The Sulfinol process has been used since the 1960s to remove hydrogen sulfide and other corrosive gases from natural gas streams. Sulfinol uses sulfolane and diisopropanolamine. Sulfolane is toxic, non-volatile, and water soluble. The presentation also addressed the remediation objectives and an additional site assessment that was conducted to better delineate the sulfolane and sulphur plume, as well as metals. The findings of the ESA and site specific challenges were presented. These challenges included: plant operation concerns; numerous overhead, surface, and underground structures; large volume of impacted material, limited space available on site; several types of contaminants; and time required to perform the overall work. Next, the sulfolane remediation strategy was discussed including advantages and results of the investigation. Last, the results of the project were presented. It was found that there were no recordable safety incidents and that all remedial objectives were achieved. tabs., figs.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of large-scale offshore wind farms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Chien; Prinn, Ronald G

2011-01-01

The vast availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as a potential near-zero greenhouse gas emission technology for meeting future world energy needs while addressing the climate change issue. However, in order to provide even a fraction of the estimated future energy needs, a large-scale deployment of wind turbines (several million) is required. The consequent environmental impacts, and the inherent reliability of such a large-scale usage of intermittent wind power would have to be carefully assessed, in addition to the need to lower the high current unit wind power costs. Our previous study (Wang and Prinn 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 2053) using a three-dimensional climate model suggested that a large deployment of wind turbines over land to meet about 10% of predicted world energy needs in 2100 could lead to a significant temperature increase in the lower atmosphere over the installed regions. A global-scale perturbation to the general circulation patterns as well as to the cloud and precipitation distribution was also predicted. In the later study reported here, we conducted a set of six additional model simulations using an improved climate model to further address the potential environmental and intermittency issues of large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines for differing installation areas and spatial densities. In contrast to the previous land installation results, the offshore wind turbine installations are found to cause a surface cooling over the installed offshore regions. This cooling is due principally to the enhanced latent heat flux from the sea surface to lower atmosphere, driven by an increase in turbulent mixing caused by the wind turbines which was not entirely offset by the concurrent reduction of mean wind kinetic energy. We found that the perturbation of the large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines to the global climate is relatively small compared to the case of land

Output Control Technologies for a Large-scale PV System Considering Impacts on a Power Grid

Science.gov (United States)

Kuwayama, Akira

The mega-solar demonstration project named “Verification of Grid Stabilization with Large-scale PV Power Generation systems” had been completed in March 2011 at Wakkanai, the northernmost city of Japan. The major objectives of this project were to evaluate adverse impacts of large-scale PV power generation systems connected to the power grid and develop output control technologies with integrated battery storage system. This paper describes the outline and results of this project. These results show the effectiveness of battery storage system and also proposed output control methods for a large-scale PV system to ensure stable operation of power grids. NEDO, New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization of Japan conducted this project and HEPCO, Hokkaido Electric Power Co., Inc managed the overall project.

The Ecological Impacts of Large-Scale Agrofuel Monoculture Production Systems in the Americas

Science.gov (United States)

Altieri, Miguel A.

2009-01-01

This article examines the expansion of agrofuels in the Americas and the ecological impacts associated with the technologies used in the production of large-scale monocultures of corn and soybeans. In addition to deforestation and displacement of lands devoted to food crops due to expansion of agrofuels, the massive use of transgenic crops and…

The impact of large scale ionospheric structure on radio occultation retrievals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. J. Mannucci

2011-12-01

Full Text Available We study the impact of large-scale ionospheric structure on the accuracy of radio occultation (RO retrievals. We use a climatological model of the ionosphere as well as an ionospheric data assimilation model to compare quiet and geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The presence of ionospheric electron density gradients during disturbed conditions increases the physical separation of the two GPS frequencies as the GPS signal traverses the ionosphere and atmosphere. We analyze this effect in detail using ray-tracing and a full geophysical retrieval system. During quiet conditions, our results are similar to previously published studies. The impact of a major ionospheric storm is analyzed using data from the 30 October 2003 "Halloween" superstorm period. At 40 km altitude, the refractivity bias under disturbed conditions is approximately three times larger than quiet time. These results suggest the need for ionospheric monitoring as part of an RO-based climate observation strategy. We find that even during quiet conditions, the magnitude of retrieval bias depends critically on assumed ionospheric electron density structure, which may explain variations in previously published bias estimates that use a variety of assumptions regarding large scale ionospheric structure. We quantify the impact of spacecraft orbit altitude on the magnitude of bending angle and retrieval error. Satellites in higher altitude orbits (700+ km tend to have lower residual biases due to the tendency of the residual bending to cancel between the top and bottomside ionosphere. Another factor affecting accuracy is the commonly-used assumption that refractive index is unity at the receiver. We conclude with remarks on the implications of this study for long-term climate monitoring using RO.

Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

Interactions between large-scale modes of climate and their relationship with Australian climate and hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Whan, K. R.; Lindesay, J. A.; Timbal, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Williams, E.

2010-12-01

Australia’s natural environment is adapted to low rainfall availability and high variability but human systems are less able to adapt to variability in the hydrological cycle. Understanding the mechanisms underlying drought persistence and severity is vital to contextualising future climate change. Multiple external forcings mean the mechanisms of drought occurrence in south-eastern Australian are complex. The key influences on SEA climate are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the sub-tropical ridge (STR); each of these large-scale climate modes (LSCM) has been studied widely. The need for research into the interactions among the modes has been noted [1], although to date this has received limited attention. Relationships between LSCM and hydrometeorological variability are nonlinear, making linearity assumptions underlying usual statistical techniques (e.g. correlation, principle components analysis) questionable. In the current research a statistical technique that can deal with nonlinear interactions is applied to a new dataset enabling a full examination of the Australian water balance. The Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) dataset models the Australian water balance on a fine grid [2]. Hydrological parameters (e.g. soil moisture, evaporation, runoff) are modelled from meteorological data, allowing the complete Australian water balance (climate and hydrology) to be examined and the mechanisms of drought to be studied holistically. Classification and regression trees (CART) are a powerful regression-based technique that is capable of accounting for nonlinear effects. Although it has limited previous application in climate research [3] this methodology is particularly informative in cases with multiple predictors and nonlinear relationships such as climate variability. Statistical relationships between variables are the basis for the decision rules in CART that are used to split

Demonstrating a new framework for the comparison of environmental impacts from small- and large-scale hydropower and wind power projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Bakken, Tor Haakon; Aase, Anne Guri; Hagen, Dagmar; Sundt, Håkon; Barton, David N; Lujala, Päivi

2014-07-01

Climate change and the needed reductions in the use of fossil fuels call for the development of renewable energy sources. However, renewable energy production, such as hydropower (both small- and large-scale) and wind power have adverse impacts on the local environment by causing reductions in biodiversity and loss of habitats and species. This paper compares the environmental impacts of many small-scale hydropower plants with a few large-scale hydropower projects and one wind power farm, based on the same set of environmental parameters; land occupation, reduction in wilderness areas (INON), visibility and impacts on red-listed species. Our basis for comparison was similar energy volumes produced, without considering the quality of the energy services provided. The results show that small-scale hydropower performs less favourably in all parameters except land occupation. The land occupation of large hydropower and wind power is in the range of 45-50 m(2)/MWh, which is more than two times larger than the small-scale hydropower, where the large land occupation for large hydropower is explained by the extent of the reservoirs. On all the three other parameters small-scale hydropower performs more than two times worse than both large hydropower and wind power. Wind power compares similarly to large-scale hydropower regarding land occupation, much better on the reduction in INON areas, and in the same range regarding red-listed species. Our results demonstrate that the selected four parameters provide a basis for further development of a fair and consistent comparison of impacts between the analysed renewable technologies. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

User Friendly Open GIS Tool for Large Scale Data Assimilation - a Case Study of Hydrological Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, P. K.

2012-08-01

Open source software (OSS) coding has tremendous advantages over proprietary software. These are primarily fuelled by high level programming languages (JAVA, C++, Python etc...) and open source geospatial libraries (GDAL/OGR, GEOS, GeoTools etc.). Quantum GIS (QGIS) is a popular open source GIS package, which is licensed under GNU GPL and is written in C++. It allows users to perform specialised tasks by creating plugins in C++ and Python. This research article emphasises on exploiting this capability of QGIS to build and implement plugins across multiple platforms using the easy to learn - Python programming language. In the present study, a tool has been developed to assimilate large spatio-temporal datasets such as national level gridded rainfall, temperature, topographic (digital elevation model, slope, aspect), landuse/landcover and multi-layer soil data for input into hydrological models. At present this tool has been developed for Indian sub-continent. An attempt is also made to use popular scientific and numerical libraries to create custom applications for digital inclusion. In the hydrological modelling calibration and validation are important steps which are repetitively carried out for the same study region. As such the developed tool will be user friendly and used efficiently for these repetitive processes by reducing the time required for data management and handling. Moreover, it was found that the developed tool can easily assimilate large dataset in an organised manner.

Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seaby, Lauren Paige

applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. H. C. Bosmans

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

Green Infrastructure and Watershed-Scale Hydrology in a Mixed Land Cover System

Science.gov (United States)

Hoghooghi, N.; Golden, H. E.; Bledsoe, B. P.

2017-12-01

Urbanization results in replacement of pervious areas (e.g., vegetation, topsoil) with impervious surfaces such as roads, roofs, and parking lots, which cause reductions in interception, evapotranspiration, and infiltration, and increases in surface runoff (overland flow) and pollutant loads and concentrations. Research on the effectiveness of different Green Infrastructure (GI), or Low Impact Development (LID), practices to reduce these negative impacts on stream flow and water quality has been mostly focused at the local scale (e.g., plots, small catchments). However, limited research has considered the broader-scale effects of LID, such as how LID practices influence water quantity, nutrient removal, and aquatic ecosystems at watershed scales, particularly in mixed land cover and land use systems. We use the Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments (VELMA) model to evaluate the effects of different LID practices on daily and long-term watershed-scale hydrology, including infiltration surface runoff. We focus on Shayler Crossing (SHC) watershed, a mixed land cover (61% urban, 24% agriculture, 15% forest) subwatershed of the East Fork Little Miami River watershed, Ohio, United States, with a drainage area of 0.94 km2. The model was calibrated to daily stream flow at the outlet of SHC watershed from 2009 to 2010 and was applied to evaluate diverse distributions (at 25% to 100% implementation levels) and types (e.g., pervious pavement and rain gardens) of LID across the watershed. Results show reduced surface water runoff and higher rates of infiltration concomitant with increasing LID implementation levels; however, this response varies between different LID practices. The highest magnitude response in streamflow at the watershed outlet is evident when a combination of LID practices is applied. The combined scenarios elucidate that the diverse watershed-scale hydrological responses of LID practices depend primarily on the type and extent of the implemented

Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

2009-12-01

Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as

An Analytical Solution for the Impact of Vegetation Changes on Hydrological Partitioning Within the Budyko Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shulei; Yang, Yuting; McVicar, Tim R.; Yang, Dawen

2018-01-01

Vegetation change is a critical factor that profoundly affects the terrestrial water cycle. Here we derive an analytical solution for the impact of vegetation changes on hydrological partitioning within the Budyko framework. This is achieved by deriving an analytical expression between leaf area index (LAI) change and the Budyko land surface parameter (n) change, through the combination of a steady state ecohydrological model with an analytical carbon cost-benefit model for plant rooting depth. Using China where vegetation coverage has experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades as a study case, we quantify the impact of LAI changes on the hydrological partitioning during 1982-2010 and predict the future influence of these changes for the 21st century using climate model projections. Results show that LAI change exhibits an increasing importance on altering hydrological partitioning as climate becomes drier. In semiarid and arid China, increased LAI has led to substantial streamflow reductions over the past three decades (on average -8.5% in 1990s and -11.7% in 2000s compared to the 1980s baseline), and this decreasing trend in streamflow is projected to continue toward the end of this century due to predicted LAI increases. Our result calls for caution regarding the large-scale revegetation activities currently being implemented in arid and semiarid China, which may result in serious future water scarcity issues here. The analytical model developed here is physically based and suitable for simultaneously assessing both vegetation changes and climate change induced changes to streamflow globally.

Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Taufik, Muh; Torfs, Paul J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Jones, Philip D.; Murdiyarso, Daniel; van Lanen, Henny A. J.

2017-06-01

Borneo's diverse ecosystems, which are typical humid tropical conditions, are deteriorating rapidly, as the area is experiencing recurrent large-scale wildfires, affecting atmospheric composition and influencing regional climate processes. Studies suggest that climate-driven drought regulates wildfires, but these overlook subsurface processes leading to hydrological drought, an important driver. Here, we show that models which include hydrological processes better predict area burnt than those solely based on climate data. We report that the Borneo landscape has experienced a substantial hydrological drying trend since the early twentieth century, leading to progressive tree mortality, more severe than in other tropical regions. This has caused massive wildfires in lowland Borneo during the past two decades, which we show are clustered in years with large areas of hydrological drought coinciding with strong El Niño events. Statistical modelling evidence shows amplifying wildfires and greater area burnt in response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength, when hydrology is considered. These results highlight the importance of considering hydrological drought for wildfire prediction, and we recommend that hydrology should be considered in future studies of the impact of projected ENSO strength, including effects on tropical ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation.

Snowpack Variation and Hydrologic Impacts across the Middle East and North Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, D. A.; Ward, M. N.

2017-12-01

The Middle East is a region historically sensitive to climate variability and change, and contains snowpacks that have been shown to be important inputs to key regional water resources, including the Tigris-Euphrates river system. Focusing on the Middle East (and the smaller snowpacks of northwestern Africa), this presentation aims to (i) quantify each year's snowpack development and recession over recent decades, highlighting interannual to decadal variability, and (ii) advance understanding on the connection between the snowpack variations and aspects of regional hydrology. The presentation draws on satellite-based products, station data, and model reanalyses. Variation is summarized using space-time statistical techniques, as well as simpler regional indices: Northwestern Iran / Southern Caucasus (NWIC, includes Zagros Mountains); Eastern Turkey (ETKY, includes Taurus Mountains); and smaller scale indices for Lebanon and the Atlas Mountains. The Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System archives daily snow cover extent at 24 km resolution for 1999-present (primarily from visible satellite imagery). These data show that for both NWIC and ETKY, the mean snow extent peaks in late January with substantial coverage ( 300,000 km2 in each region), contracting to near zero by late June. A very large mid-winter interannual variance is also shown, implying substantial variation in hydrologic impacts during spring melt. Variability and decadal trends are compared with station snow depth reports (Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily). Strong agreement gives confidence in data quality, as well as, indicating high covariation of depth and extent. The connection with hydrologic impacts is investigated using reanalysis products, including the Global Land Data Assimilation System V2, which for the Middle East, shows broad agreement with observed maximum snow extent and spring retreat. The connections internal to the reanalysis between snow cover, melt and

Applying Hillslope Hydrology to Bridge between Ecosystem and Grid-Scale Processes within an Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Subin, Z. M.; Sulman, B. N.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

2013-12-01

Soil moisture is a crucial control on surface energy fluxes, vegetation properties, and soil carbon cycling. Its interactions with ecosystem processes are highly nonlinear across a large range, as both drought stress and anoxia can impede vegetation and microbial growth. Earth System Models (ESMs) generally only represent an average soil-moisture state in grid cells at scales of 50-200 km, and as a result are not able to adequately represent the effects of subgrid heterogeneity in soil moisture, especially in regions with large wetland areas. We addressed this deficiency by developing the first ESM-coupled subgrid hillslope-hydrological model, TiHy (Tiled-hillslope Hydrology), embedded within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model. In each grid cell, one or more representative hillslope geometries are discretized into land model tiles along an upland-to-lowland gradient. These geometries represent ~1 km hillslope-scale hydrological features and allow for flexible representation of hillslope profile and plan shapes, in addition to variation of subsurface properties among or within hillslopes. Each tile (which may represent ~100 m along the hillslope) has its own surface fluxes, vegetation state, and vertically-resolved state variables for soil physics and biogeochemistry. Resolution of water state in deep layers (~200 m) down to bedrock allows for physical integration of groundwater transport with unsaturated overlying dynamics. Multiple tiles can also co-exist at the same vertical position along the hillslope, allowing the simulation of ecosystem heterogeneity due to disturbance. The hydrological model is coupled to the vertically-resolved Carbon, Organisms, Respiration, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model, which captures non-linearity resulting from interactions between vertically-heterogeneous soil carbon and water profiles. We present comparisons of simulated water table depth to observations. We examine sensitivities to

An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

Science.gov (United States)

R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

2015-01-01

The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2013-04-01

Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

Algorithm 896: LSA: Algorithms for Large-Scale Optimization

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Lukšan, Ladislav; Matonoha, Ctirad; Vlček, Jan

2009-01-01

Roč. 36, č. 3 (2009), 16-1-16-29 ISSN 0098-3500 R&D Pro jects: GA AV ČR IAA1030405; GA ČR GP201/06/P397 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : algorithms * design * large-scale optimization * large-scale nonsmooth optimization * large-scale nonlinear least squares * large-scale nonlinear minimax * large-scale systems of nonlinear equations * sparse pro blems * partially separable pro blems * limited-memory methods * discrete Newton methods * quasi-Newton methods * primal interior-point methods Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.904, year: 2009

Assessment of ecologically relevant hydrological change in China due to water use and reservoirs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Zhang

2008-06-01

Full Text Available As China's economy booms, increasing water use has significantly affected hydro-geomorphic processes and thus the ecology of surface waters. A large variety of hydrological changes arising from human activities such as reservoir construction and management, water abstraction, water diversion and agricultural land expansion have been sustained throughout China. Using the global scale hydrological and water use model WaterGAP, natural and anthropogenically altered flow conditions are calculated, taking into account flow alterations due to human water consumption and 580 large reservoirs. The impacts resulting from water consumption and reservoirs have been analyzed separately. A modified "Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration" approach is used to describe the human pressures on aquatic ecosystems due to anthropogenic alterations in river flow regimes. The changes in long-term average river discharge, average monthly mean discharge and coefficients of variation of monthly river discharges under natural and impacted conditions are compared and analyzed. The indicators show very significant alterations of natural river flow regimes in a large part of northern China and only minor alterations in most of southern China. The detected large alterations in long-term average river discharge, the seasonality of flows and the inter-annual variability in the northern half of China are very likely to have caused significant ecological impacts.

Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Janicot

2008-09-01

Full Text Available The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

Effects of Energy Development on Hydrologic Response: a Multi-Scale Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Vithanage, J.; Miller, S. N.; Berendsen, M.; Caffrey, P. A.; Bellis, J.; Schuler, R.

2013-12-01

Potential impacts of energy development on surface hydrology in western Wyoming were assessed using spatially explicit hydrological models. Currently there are proposals to develop over 800 new oil and gas wells in the 218,000 acre-sized LaBarge development area that abuts the Wyoming Range and contributes runoff to the Upper Green River (approximately 1 well per 2 square miles). The intensity of development raises questions relating to impacts on the hydrological cycle, water quality, erosion and sedimentation. We developed landscape management scenarios relating to current disturbance and proposed actions put forth by the energy operators to provide inputs to spatially explicit hydrologic models. Differences between the scenarios were derived to quantify the changes and analyse the impacts to the project area. To perform this research, the Automated Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA) was enhanced by adding different management practices suitable for the region, including the reclamation of disturbed lands over time. The AGWA interface was used to parameterize and execute two hydrologic models: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINEmatic Runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2). We used freely available data including SSURGO soils, Multi-Resolution Landscape Consortium (MRLC) land cover, and 10m resolution terrain data to derive suitable initial parameters for the models. The SWAT model was manually calibrated using an innovative method at the monthly level; observed daily rainfall and temperature inputs were used as a function of elevation considering the local climate effects. Higher temporal calibration was not possible due to a lack of adequate climate and runoff data. The Nash Sutcliff efficiencies of two calibrated watersheds at the monthly scale exceeded 0.95. Results of the AGWA/SWAT simulations indicate a range of sensitivity to disturbance due to heterogeneous soil and terrain characteristics over a simulated time period of 10 years. The KINEROS

A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2018-02-01

A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.

Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

Technical review of large-scale hydrological models for implementation in operational flood forecasting schemes on continental level

OpenAIRE

KAUFFELD Anna; WETTERHALL F.; Pappenberger F.; SALAMON Peter; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

2014-01-01

The uncertainty in operational hydrological forecast systems driven with numerical weather predictions inputs are often assessed by quantifying the uncertainty from the inputs and not from the hydrological model itself. However, part of the uncertainty in modelled discharge stems from the hydrological model and some models may be more suitable than others for particular processes. A hydrological multi-model hydrological system can account for some of this uncertainty, but there exists a p...

Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

2017-12-01

A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also

The impact of new forms of large-scale general practice provider collaborations on England's NHS: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Pettigrew, Luisa M; Kumpunen, Stephanie; Mays, Nicholas; Rosen, Rebecca; Posaner, Rachel

2018-03-01

Over the past decade, collaboration between general practices in England to form new provider networks and large-scale organisations has been driven largely by grassroots action among GPs. However, it is now being increasingly advocated for by national policymakers. Expectations of what scaling up general practice in England will achieve are significant. To review the evidence of the impact of new forms of large-scale general practice provider collaborations in England. Systematic review. Embase, MEDLINE, Health Management Information Consortium, and Social Sciences Citation Index were searched for studies reporting the impact on clinical processes and outcomes, patient experience, workforce satisfaction, or costs of new forms of provider collaborations between general practices in England. A total of 1782 publications were screened. Five studies met the inclusion criteria and four examined the same general practice networks, limiting generalisability. Substantial financial investment was required to establish the networks and the associated interventions that were targeted at four clinical areas. Quality improvements were achieved through standardised processes, incentives at network level, information technology-enabled performance dashboards, and local network management. The fifth study of a large-scale multisite general practice organisation showed that it may be better placed to implement safety and quality processes than conventional practices. However, unintended consequences may arise, such as perceptions of disenfranchisement among staff and reductions in continuity of care. Good-quality evidence of the impacts of scaling up general practice provider organisations in England is scarce. As more general practice collaborations emerge, evaluation of their impacts will be important to understand which work, in which settings, how, and why. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

Predicting hydrological response to forest changes by simple statistical models: the selection of the best indicator of forest changes with a hydrological perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, D.; Zhang, M.; Ren, S.; Hou, Y.; Yu, L.; Meng, Z.

2017-01-01

Forest plays an important role in hydrological cycle, and forest changes will inevitably affect runoff across multiple spatial scales. The selection of a suitable indicator for forest changes is essential for predicting forest-related hydrological response. This study used the Meijiang River, one of the headwaters of the Poyang Lake as an example to identify the best indicator of forest changes for predicting forest change-induced hydrological responses. Correlation analysis was conducted first to detect the relationships between monthly runoff and its predictive variables including antecedent monthly precipitation and indicators for forest changes (forest coverage, vegetation indices including EVI, NDVI, and NDWI), and by use of the identified predictive variables that were most correlated with monthly runoff, multiple linear regression models were then developed. The model with best performance identified in this study included two independent variables -antecedent monthly precipitation and NDWI. It indicates that NDWI is the best indicator of forest change in hydrological prediction while forest coverage, the most commonly used indicator of forest change is insignificantly related to monthly runoff. This highlights the use of vegetation index such as NDWI to indicate forest changes in hydrological studies. This study will provide us with an efficient way to quantify the hydrological impact of large-scale forest changes in the Meijiang River watershed, which is crucial for downstream water resource management and ecological protection in the Poyang Lake basin.

Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, Ralf

2013-04-01

subsequent variety of management options and adaptation strategies. Therefore, the 4-year FP7-project CLIMB (Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins, GA: 244151) includes a major focus on the assessment and quantification of uncertainties. First, CLIMB employs a rigorous climate change model analysis, auditing the Global and Regional Climate Model data available through the ENSEMBLES and PRUDENCE initiatives. The audits lead to select the best regional performers as compared to observed values during the climatic reference period (1971- 2000). Specific bias correction and downscaling procedures are applied to provide the driving inputs and meet the demands of the subsequent impact models, transferring a future climate signal (2041-2070) into hydrological quantities at the catchment or landscape scale. However, very limited quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment, where predictive power becomes more and more important and raises the demand for process-based and spatially explicit model types. Thus, CLIMB uses hydrological model ensembles to analyze the performance of existing models and works to identify the appropriate level of model complexity, and thus to determine the data specifications required to provide robust results in a climate change context. The presentation focuses on the CLIMB multi-level strategy to uncertainty assessment and highlights latest findings in some of the seven CLIMB case studies. In particular, the presentation will demonstrate the current constraints of hydro-meteorological data availability and processing and searches for solutions that can eventually be provided by integrating hydro-meteorology and ICT research communities.

Socio-cultural impacts of large-scale cruise tourism in Souq Mutrah, Sultanate of Oman

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuela Gutberlet

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The following paper explores socio-cultural impacts of large-scale cruise liner tourism on the traditional bazaar (souq in the district of Mutrah. The souq is located opposite the port in the Omani capital Muscat. Large-scale cruise tourism in Muscat started only in 2004 and has increased in scale and numbers in the past years. 24 cruise vessels with around 7600 passengers arrived in Muscat in 2005. Seven years later 135 cruise liners carrying 257,000 tourists docked in Muscat. Due to this dramatic rise of international cruise ships, the socio-cultural impacts have increased for local residents, shop vendors/owners and tourists alike. To capture those socio-cultural impacts on Souq Mutrah, a survey of cruise tourists was conducted by a questionnaire. In addition, the researcher used participatory observation, counting, and in-depth interviews with different stakeholders of the local community and different types of tourists during the cruise seasons 2012/13 and 2013/14. Moreover, content analysis of statistics and local media publications were used. Results indicate that the souq has become “the core of a tourist bubble”, where crowding is a major problem and local residents avoid the place. The social carrying capacity of the souq has been reached. Omani vendors are leaving their businesses and renting their shops out to expatriates. Since contemporary cruise tourists are low spenders, expatriate shop sellers have become more aggressive.

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

Science.gov (United States)

Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

Assessing hydrological impacts of tree-based bioenergy feedstock

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Gush, Mark B

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This chapter provides a methodology for assessing the hydrological impacts of tree-based bioenergy feedstock. Based on experience gained in South Africa, it discusses the tasks required to reach an understanding of the likely water resource impacts...

The impacts of household retrofit and domestic energy efficiency schemes: A large scale, ex post evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webber, Phil; Gouldson, Andy; Kerr, Niall

2015-01-01

There is widespread interest in the ability of retrofit schemes to shape domestic energy use in order to tackle fuel poverty and reduce carbon emissions. Although much has been written on the topic, there have been few large-scale ex post evaluations of the actual impacts of such schemes. We address this by assessing domestic energy use before and after the Kirklees Warm Zone (KWZ) scheme, which by fitting insulation in 51,000 homes in the 2007–2010 period is one of the largest retrofit schemes completed in the UK to date. To do this, we develop and apply a new methodology that isolates the impacts of retrofit activity from broader background trends in energy use. The results suggest that the actual impacts of the KWZ scheme have been higher than predicted, and that the scale of any performance gaps or rebound effects have been lower than has often been assumed. They also suggest that impacts on energy use in lower income areas are consistent with predictions, but that impacts in middle and higher income areas are higher than predicted. These findings support the case for the wider and/or accelerated adoption of domestic retrofit schemes in other contexts. -- Highlights: •A large scale, ex post evaluation of the impacts of a household retrofit scheme. •A new methodology to separate retrofit impacts from background trends. •Shows impacts of retrofit have been 1.2–1.7 times higher than predicted. •Impacts as predicted in lower income areas, higher in middle and upper income areas. •Findings support the case for the wider and faster adoption of domestic retrofit

Lumped hydrological models is an Occam' razor for runoff modeling in large Russian Arctic basins

OpenAIRE

Ayzel Georgy

2018-01-01

This study is aimed to investigate the possibility of three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins for the modern period (1979-2014) in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil or vegetation cover properties of studied basins. We found limitations of model parameters calibration in ungauged basins using global optimization alg...

Assessing the impacts of dams and levees on the hydrologic record of the Middle and Lower Mississippi River, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Remo, Jonathan W.F.; Ickes, Brian; Ryherd, Julia K.; Guida, Ross J.; Therrell, Matthew D.

2018-01-01

The impacts of dams and levees on the long-term (>130 years) discharge record was assessed along a ~1200 km segment of the Mississippi River between St. Louis, Missouri, and Vicksburg, Mississippi. To aid in our evaluation of dam impacts, we used data from the U.S. National Inventory of Dams to calculate the rate of reservoir expansion at five long-term hydrologic monitoring stations along the study segment. We divided the hydrologic record at each station into three periods: (1) a pre-rapid reservoir expansion period; (2) a rapid reservoir expansion period; and (3) a post-rapid reservoir expansion period. We then used three approaches to assess changes in the hydrologic record at each station. Indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) and flow duration hydrographs were used to quantify changes in flow conditions between the pre- and post-rapid reservoir expansion periods. Auto-regressive interrupted time series analysis (ARITS) was used to assess trends in maximum annual discharge, mean annual discharge, minimum annual discharge, and standard deviation of daily discharges within a given water year. A one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model was used to assess the impact of levees on flood flows. Our results revealed that minimum annual discharges and low-flow IHA parameters showed the most significant changes. Additionally, increasing trends in minimum annual discharge during the rapid reservoir expansion period were found at three out of the five hydrologic monitoring stations. These IHA and ARITS results support previous findings consistent with the observation that reservoirs generally have the greatest impacts on low-flow conditions. River segment scale hydraulic modeling revealed levees can modestly increase peak flood discharges, while basin-scale hydrologic modeling assessments by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers showed that tributary reservoirs reduced peak discharges by a similar magnitude (2 to 30%). This finding suggests that the effects of dams and

Hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Mangen; Chen, Xing; Cheng, Chad Shouquan

2016-01-01

Precipitation extremes play a key role in flooding risks over the Huaihe River Basin, which is important to understand their hydrological impacts. Based on observed daily precipitation and streamflow data from 1958 to 2009, eight precipitation indices and three streamflow indices were calculated for the study of hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the wet condition intensified in the summer wet season and the drought condition was getting worse in the autumn dry season in the later years of the past 50 years. The river basin had experienced higher heavy rainfall-related flooding risks in summer and more severe drought in autumn in the later of the period. The extreme precipitation events or consecutive heavy rain day events led to the substantial increases in streamflow extremes, which are the main causes of frequent floods in the Huaihe River Basin. The large inter-annual variation of precipitation anomalies in the upper and central Huaihe River Basin are the major contributor for the regional frequent floods and droughts.

Water management in Angkor: human impacts on hydrology and sediment transportation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kummu, Matti

2009-03-01

The city of Angkor, capital of the Khmer empire from the 9th to 15th century CE, is well known for its impressive temples, but recent research has uncovered an extensive channel network stretching across over 1000 km2. The channel network with large reservoirs (termed baray) formed the structure of the city and was the basis for its water management. The annual long dry season associated with the monsoon climate has challenged water management for centuries, and the extensive water management system must have played an important role in the mitigation of such marked seasonality. However, by changing the natural water courses with off-take channels the original catchments were also reshaped. Moreover, severe problems of erosion and sedimentation in human built channels evolved and impacted on the whole water management system. This paper describes the present hydrology of the area and discusses the impacts of water management on hydrology during the Angkor era. The paper, moreover, attempts to summarise lessons that could be learnt from Angkorian water management that might apply to present challenges within the field.

Global impacts of the meat trade on in-stream organic river pollution: the importance of spatially distributed hydrological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

2018-01-01

In many regions of the world, intensive livestock farming has become a significant source of organic river pollution. As the international meat trade is growing rapidly, the environmental impacts of meat production within one country can occur either domestically or internationally. The goal of this paper is to quantify the impacts of the international meat trade on global organic river pollution at multiple scales (national, regional and gridded). Using the biological oxygen demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, we compute the spatially distributed organic pollution in global river networks with and without a meat trade, where the without-trade scenario assumes that meat imports are replaced by local production. Our analysis reveals a reduction in the livestock population and production of organic pollutants at the global scale as a result of the international meat trade. However, the actual environmental impact of trade, as quantified by in-stream BOD concentrations, is negative; i.e. we find a slight increase in polluted river segments. More importantly, our results show large spatial variability in local (grid-scale) impacts that do not correlate with local changes in BOD loading, which illustrates: (1) the significance of accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes along river networks, and (2) the limited value of looking at country-level or global averages when estimating the actual impacts of trade on the environment.

ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

2014-05-01

We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

Impacts of large-scale offshore wind farm integration on power systems through VSC-HVDC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Hongzhi; Chen, Zhe

2013-01-01

The potential of offshore wind energy has been commonly recognized and explored globally. Many countries have implemented and planned offshore wind farms to meet their increasing electricity demands and public environmental appeals, especially in Europe. With relatively less space limitation......, an offshore wind farm could have a capacity rating to hundreds of MWs or even GWs that is large enough to compete with conventional power plants. Thus the impacts of a large offshore wind farm on power system operation and security should be thoroughly studied and understood. This paper investigates...... the impacts of integrating a large-scale offshore wind farm into the transmission system of a power grid through VSC-HVDC connection. The concerns are focused on steady-state voltage stability, dynamic voltage stability and transient angle stability. Simulation results based on an exemplary power system...

On a digital wireless impact-monitoring network for large-scale composite structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Qiu, Lei; Ren, Yuanqiang

2014-01-01

Impact, which may occur during manufacture, service or maintenance, is one of the major concerns to be monitored throughout the lifetime of aircraft composite structures. Aiming at monitoring impacts online while minimizing the weight added to the aircraft to meet the strict limitations of aerospace engineering, this paper puts forward a new digital wireless network based on miniaturized wireless digital impact-monitoring nodes developed for large-scale composite structures. In addition to investigations on the design methods of the network architecture, time synchronization and implementation method, a conflict resolution method based on the feature parameters of digital sequences is first presented to address impact localization conflicts when several nodes are arranged close together. To verify the feasibility and stability of the wireless network, experiments are performed on a complex aircraft composite wing box and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) composite wing. Experimental results show the successful design of the presented network. (paper)

Impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sarazin, Y [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Grandgirard, V [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Dif-Pradalier, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Fleurence, E [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Garbet, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Ghendrih, Ph [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Bertrand, P [LPMIA-Universite Henri Poincare Nancy I, Boulevard des Aiguillettes BP239, 54506 Vandoe uvre-les-Nancy (France); Besse, N [LPMIA-Universite Henri Poincare Nancy I, Boulevard des Aiguillettes BP239, 54506 Vandoe uvre-les-Nancy (France); Crouseilles, N [IRMA, UMR 7501 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, 7 rue Rene Descartes, 67084 Strasbourg (France); Sonnendruecker, E [IRMA, UMR 7501 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, 7 rue Rene Descartes, 67084 Strasbourg (France); Latu, G [LSIIT, UMR 7005 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, Bd Sebastien Brant BP10413, 67412 Illkirch (France); Violard, E [LSIIT, UMR 7005 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, Bd Sebastien Brant BP10413, 67412 Illkirch (France)

2006-12-15

The impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport in magnetized plasmas is explored by means of various kinetic models. Zonal flows are found to lead to a non-linear upshift of turbulent transport in a 3D kinetic model for interchange turbulence. Such a transition is absent from fluid simulations, performed with the same numerical tool, which also predict a much larger transport. The discrepancy cannot be explained by zonal flows only, despite they being overdamped in fluids. Indeed, some difference remains, although reduced, when they are artificially suppressed. Zonal flows are also reported to trigger transport barriers in a 4D drift-kinetic model for slab ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence. The density gradient acts as a source drive for zonal flows, while their curvature back stabilizes the turbulence. Finally, 5D simulations of toroidal ITG modes with the global and full-f GYSELA code require the equilibrium density function to depend on the motion invariants only. If not, the generated strong mean flows can completely quench turbulent transport.

Impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarazin, Y; Grandgirard, V; Dif-Pradalier, G; Fleurence, E; Garbet, X; Ghendrih, Ph; Bertrand, P; Besse, N; Crouseilles, N; Sonnendruecker, E; Latu, G; Violard, E

2006-01-01

The impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport in magnetized plasmas is explored by means of various kinetic models. Zonal flows are found to lead to a non-linear upshift of turbulent transport in a 3D kinetic model for interchange turbulence. Such a transition is absent from fluid simulations, performed with the same numerical tool, which also predict a much larger transport. The discrepancy cannot be explained by zonal flows only, despite they being overdamped in fluids. Indeed, some difference remains, although reduced, when they are artificially suppressed. Zonal flows are also reported to trigger transport barriers in a 4D drift-kinetic model for slab ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence. The density gradient acts as a source drive for zonal flows, while their curvature back stabilizes the turbulence. Finally, 5D simulations of toroidal ITG modes with the global and full-f GYSELA code require the equilibrium density function to depend on the motion invariants only. If not, the generated strong mean flows can completely quench turbulent transport

Understand the impacts of wetland restoration on peak flow and baseflow by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, H.; Sabo, J. L.

2016-12-01

Wetlands as the earth's kidneys provides various ecosystem services, such as absorbing pollutants, purifying freshwater, providing habitats for diverse ecosystems, sustaining species richness and biodiversity. From hydrologic perspective, wetlands can store storm-flood water in flooding seasons and release it afterwards, which will reduce flood peaks and reshape hydrograph. Therefore, as a green infrastructure and natural capital, wetlands provides a competent alternative to manage water resources in a green way, with potential to replace the widely criticized traditional gray infrastructure (i.e. dams and dikes) in certain cases. However, there are few systematic scientific tools to support our decision-making on site selection and allow us to quantitatively investigate the impacts of restored wetlands on hydrological process, not only in local scale but also in the view of entire catchment. In this study, we employed a topographic index, HAND (the Height Above the Nearest Drainage), to support our decision on potential site selection. Subsequently, a hydrological model (VIC, Variable Infiltration Capacity) was coupled with a macro-scale hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood, Catchment-Based Macro-scale Floodplain) to simulate the impact of wetland restoration on flood peaks and baseflow. The results demonstrated that topographic information is an essential factor to select wetland restoration location. Different reaches, wetlands area and the change of roughness coefficient should be taken into account while evaluating the impacts of wetland restoration. The simulated results also clearly illustrated that wetland restoration will increase the local storage and decrease the downstream peak flow which is beneficial for flood prevention. However, its impact on baseflow is ambiguous. Theoretically, restored wetlands will increase the baseflow due to the slower release of the stored flood water, but the increase of wetlands area may also increase the actual evaporation

Hydrologic impact of urbanization with extensive stormwater infiltration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2017-01-01

This paper presents a novel modeling analysis of a 40-year-long dataset to examine the impact of urbanization, with widespread stormwater infiltration, on groundwater levels and the water balance of a watershed. A dataset on the hydrologic impact of urbanization with extensive stormwater...

Impacts of Extreme Flooding on Hydrologic Connectivity and Water Quality in the Atlantic Coastal Plain and Implications for Vulnerable Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Riveros-Iregui, D. A.; Moser, H. A.; Christenson, E. C.; Gray, J.; Hedgespeth, M. L.; Jass, T. L.; Lowry, D. S.; Martin, K.; Nichols, E. G.; Stewart, J. R.; Emanuel, R. E.

2017-12-01

In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought extreme flooding to eastern North Carolina, including record regional flooding along the Lumber River and its tributaries in the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Situated in a region dominated by large-scale crop-cultivation and containing some of the highest densities of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) and animal processing operations in the U.S., the Lumber River watershed is also home to the Lumbee Tribe of American Indians. Most of the tribe's 60,000+ members live within or immediately adjacent to the 3,000 km2 watershed where they maintain deep cultural and historical connections. The region, however, also suffers from high rates of poverty and large disparities in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, conditions exacerbated by Hurricane Matthew. We summarize ongoing efforts to characterize the short- and long-term impacts of extreme flooding on water quality in (1) low gradient streams and riverine wetlands of the watershed; (2) surficial aquifers, which provide water resources for the local communities, and (3) public drinking water supplies, which derive from deeper, confined aquifers but whose infrastructure suffered widespread damage following Hurricane Matthew. Our results provide mechanistic understanding of flood-related connectivity across multiple hydrologic compartments, and provide important implications for how hydrological natural hazards combine with land use to drive water quality impacts and affect vulnerable populations.

Structural problems of public participation in large-scale projects with environmental impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bechmann, G.

1989-01-01

Four items are discussed showing that the problems involved through participation of the public in large-scale projects with environmental impact cannot be solved satisfactorily without suitable modification of the existing legal framework. The problematic items are: the status of the electric utilities as a quasi public enterprise; informal preliminary negotiations; the penetration of scientific argumentation into administrative decisions; the procedural concept. The paper discusses the fundamental issue of the problem-adequate design of the procedure and develops suggestions for a cooperative participation design. (orig./HSCH) [de

National-Scale Hydrologic Classification & Agricultural Decision Support: A Multi-Scale Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Coopersmith, E. J.; Minsker, B.; Sivapalan, M.

2012-12-01

Classification frameworks can help organize catchments exhibiting similarity in hydrologic and climatic terms. Focusing this assessment of "similarity" upon specific hydrologic signatures, in this case the annual regime curve, can facilitate the prediction of hydrologic responses. Agricultural decision-support over a diverse set of catchments throughout the United States depends upon successful modeling of the wetting/drying process without necessitating separate model calibration at every site where such insights are required. To this end, a holistic classification framework is developed to describe both climatic variability (humid vs. arid, winter rainfall vs. summer rainfall) and the draining, storing, and filtering behavior of any catchment, including ungauged or minimally gauged basins. At the national scale, over 400 catchments from the MOPEX database are analyzed to construct the classification system, with over 77% of these catchments ultimately falling into only six clusters. At individual locations, soil moisture models, receiving only rainfall as input, produce correlation values in excess of 0.9 with respect to observed soil moisture measurements. By deploying physical models for predicting soil moisture exclusively from precipitation that are calibrated at gauged locations, overlaying machine learning techniques to improve these estimates, then generalizing the calibration parameters for catchments in a given class, agronomic decision-support becomes available where it is needed rather than only where sensing data are located.lassifications of 428 U.S. catchments on the basis of hydrologic regime data, Coopersmith et al, 2012.

A data-model integration approach toward improved understanding on wetland functions and hydrological benefits at the catchment scale

Science.gov (United States)

Yeo, I. Y.; Lang, M.; Lee, S.; Huang, C.; Jin, H.; McCarty, G.; Sadeghi, A.

2017-12-01

The wetland ecosystem plays crucial roles in improving hydrological function and ecological integrity for the downstream water and the surrounding landscape. However, changing behaviours and functioning of wetland ecosystems are poorly understood and extremely difficult to characterize. Improved understanding on hydrological behaviours of wetlands, considering their interaction with surrounding landscapes and impacts on downstream waters, is an essential first step toward closing the knowledge gap. We present an integrated wetland-catchment modelling study that capitalizes on recently developed inundation maps and other geospatial data. The aim of the data-model integration is to improve spatial prediction of wetland inundation and evaluate cumulative hydrological benefits at the catchment scale. In this paper, we highlight problems arising from data preparation, parameterization, and process representation in simulating wetlands within a distributed catchment model, and report the recent progress on mapping of wetland dynamics (i.e., inundation) using multiple remotely sensed data. We demonstrate the value of spatially explicit inundation information to develop site-specific wetland parameters and to evaluate model prediction at multi-spatial and temporal scales. This spatial data-model integrated framework is tested using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with improved wetland extension, and applied for an agricultural watershed in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA. This study illustrates necessity of spatially distributed information and a data integrated modelling approach to predict inundation of wetlands and hydrologic function at the local landscape scale, where monitoring and conservation decision making take place.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Wang

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1 °C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1 °C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure

Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Offshore Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology in Oregon Coastal Counties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jimenez, T. [Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Washington, DC (United States); Tegen, S. [Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Washington, DC (United States); Beiter, P. [Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Washington, DC (United States)

2015-03-01

To begin understanding the potential economic impacts of large-scale WEC technology, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct an economic impact analysis of largescale WEC deployment for Oregon coastal counties. This report follows a previously published report by BOEM and NREL on the jobs and economic impacts of WEC technology for the entire state (Jimenez and Tegen 2015). As in Jimenez and Tegen (2015), this analysis examined two deployment scenarios in the 2026-2045 timeframe: the first scenario assumed 13,000 megawatts (MW) of WEC technology deployed during the analysis period, and the second assumed 18,000 MW of WEC technology deployed by 2045. Both scenarios require major technology and cost improvements in the WEC devices. The study is on very large-scale deployment so readers can examine and discuss the potential of a successful and very large WEC industry. The 13,000-MW is used as the basis for the county analysis as it is the smaller of the two scenarios. Sensitivity studies examined the effects of a robust in-state WEC supply chain. The region of analysis is comprised of the seven coastal counties in Oregon—Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, Lincoln, and Tillamook—so estimates of jobs and other economic impacts are specific to this coastal county area.

Impact of different satellite soil moisture products on the predictions of a continuous distributed hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Laiolo, P.; Gabellani, S.; Campo, L.; Silvestro, F.; Delogu, F.; Rudari, R.; Pulvirenti, L.; Boni, G.; Fascetti, F.; Pierdicca, N.; Crapolicchio, R.; Hasenauer, S.; Puca, S.

2016-06-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the flood predictions and hydrological cycle description. Nowadays remotely sensed data can offer a chance to improve hydrological models especially in environments with scarce ground based data. The aim of this work is to update the state variables of a physically based, distributed and continuous hydrological model using four different satellite-derived data (three soil moisture products and a land surface temperature measurement) and one soil moisture analysis to evaluate, even with a non optimal technique, the impact on the hydrological cycle. The experiments were carried out for a small catchment, in the northern part of Italy, for the period July 2012-June 2013. The products were pre-processed according to their own characteristics and then they were assimilated into the model using a simple nudging technique. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge were tested against observations. The analysis showed a general improvement of the model discharge predictions, even with a simple assimilation technique, for all the assimilation experiments; the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient was increased from 0.6 (relative to the model without assimilation) to 0.7, moreover, errors on discharge were reduced up to the 10%. An added value to the model was found in the rainfall season (autumn): all the assimilation experiments reduced the errors up to the 20%. This demonstrated that discharge prediction of a distributed hydrological model, which works at fine scale resolution in a small basin, can be improved with the assimilation of coarse-scale satellite-derived data.

Using multiple lines of evidence to evaluate the hydrological response to deforestation of large catchments in the dry tropics of Queensland, Australia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pena-Arancibia, J.; van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; Guerschmann, J.P.; Mulligan, M.; Bruijnzeel, L.A.; McVicar, T.R.

2012-01-01

We used daily rainfall and streamflow time series from two large catchments in the seasonal tropics of Queensland, Australia to investigate the hydrological impacts of woodland clearing. The Comet catchment (16,440km

A high-resolution European dataset for hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ntegeka, Victor; Salamon, Peter; Gomes, Goncalo; Sint, Hadewij; Lorini, Valerio; Thielen, Jutta

2013-04-01

There is an increasing demand for large scale hydrological models not only in the field of modeling the impact of climate change on water resources but also for disaster risk assessments and flood or drought early warning systems. These large scale models need to be calibrated and verified against large amounts of observations in order to judge their capabilities to predict the future. However, the creation of large scale datasets is challenging for it requires collection, harmonization, and quality checking of large amounts of observations. For this reason, only a limited number of such datasets exist. In this work, we present a pan European, high-resolution gridded dataset of meteorological observations (EFAS-Meteo) which was designed with the aim to drive a large scale hydrological model. Similar European and global gridded datasets already exist, such as the HadGHCND (Caesar et al., 2006), the JRC MARS-STAT database (van der Goot and Orlandi, 2003) and the E-OBS gridded dataset (Haylock et al., 2008). However, none of those provide similarly high spatial resolution and/or a complete set of variables to force a hydrologic model. EFAS-Meteo contains daily maps of precipitation, surface temperature (mean, minimum and maximum), wind speed and vapour pressure at a spatial grid resolution of 5 x 5 km for the time period 1 January 1990 - 31 December 2011. It furthermore contains calculated radiation, which is calculated by using a staggered approach depending on the availability of sunshine duration, cloud cover and minimum and maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration (potential evapotranspiration, bare soil and open water evapotranspiration). The potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation with the above-mentioned meteorological variables. The dataset was created as part of the development of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and has been continuously updated throughout the last years. The dataset variables are used as

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin; Hinkle, Ross; Li, Hong-Yi; Bailey, Vanessa; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2015-01-01

This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling of hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.

Hydrologic Effects of Global Climate Change on a Large Drained Pine Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; R. W. Skaggs; G. M Chescheir; J. E. Nettles

2006-01-01

A simulation study using a watershed scale forest hydrology model (DRAINWAT) was conducted to evaluate potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of a 3,000 ha managed pine forest in coastal North Carolina. The model was first validated with a five-year (1996-2000) data set fro111 the study site and then run with 50-years (1951-00) of historic weather data...

Impact of climate change on large scale coastal currents of South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Meyer, A

2010-09-01

Full Text Available of temperature trends in the southern indian ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L14611, doi:10.1029/2007gL030380. • De Ruijter, W.P.M., van Aken, H.M., Beier, E.J., Lutjeharms, J.R.E., Matano, R.P. Schouten, M.W. 2004. eddies and dipoles around South... Madagascar: formation, pathways and large- scale impact. Deep-Sea Research I, 51, 383-400. • Lutjeharms, J. R. E. and van Ballegooyen, R. C. 1988. Anomalous upstream retroflection in the agulhas current. Science, 240, 1770-1772. • Rouault, M., Penven...

Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2016-01-01

Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

Validation of a mesoscale hydrological model in a small-scale forested catchment

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šípek, Václav; Tesař, Miroslav

2016-01-01

Roč. 47, č. 1 (2016), s. 27-41 ISSN 1998-9563 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA02021451 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : hydrological modelling * small catchment * soil moisture * subsurface lateral flow * SWIM Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.754, year: 2016

Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Large-scale Hydrological Model to Prepare an Ensemble-based SWOT-like Data Assimilation Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Emery, C. M.; Biancamaria, S.; Boone, A. A.; Ricci, S. M.; Garambois, P. A.; Decharme, B.; Rochoux, M. C.

2015-12-01

Land Surface Models (LSM) coupled with River Routing schemes (RRM), are used in Global Climate Models (GCM) to simulate the continental part of the water cycle. They are key component of GCM as they provide boundary conditions to atmospheric and oceanic models. However, at global scale, errors arise mainly from simplified physics, atmospheric forcing, and input parameters. More particularly, those used in RRM, such as river width, depth and friction coefficients, are difficult to calibrate and are mostly derived from geomorphologic relationships, which may not always be realistic. In situ measurements are then used to calibrate these relationships and validate the model, but global in situ data are very sparse. Additionally, due to the lack of existing global river geomorphology database and accurate forcing, models are run at coarse resolution. This is typically the case of the ISBA-TRIP model used in this study.A complementary alternative to in-situ data are satellite observations. In this regard, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, jointly developed by NASA/CNES/CSA/UKSA and scheduled for launch around 2020, should be very valuable to calibrate RRM parameters. It will provide maps of water surface elevation for rivers wider than 100 meters over continental surfaces in between 78°S and 78°N and also direct observation of river geomorphological parameters such as width ans slope.Yet, before assimilating such kind of data, it is needed to analyze RRM temporal sensitivity to time-constant parameters. This study presents such analysis over large river basins for the TRIP RRM. Model output uncertainty, represented by unconditional variance, is decomposed into ordered contribution from each parameter. Doing a time-dependent analysis allows then to identify to which parameters modeled water level and discharge are the most sensitive along a hydrological year. The results show that local parameters directly impact water levels, while

Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

breaching. Our results demonstrate that violent, millennial-scale storms can trigger significant large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coasts, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with a single extreme storm event....

Impact of prescribed and repeated vegetation burning on blanket peat hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Holden, Joseph; Brown, Lee; Palmer, Sheila; Johnston, Kerrylyn; Wearing, Catherine; Irvine, Brian

2013-04-01

In some peatlands there has been a tradition over the past century of burning vegetation to manage the landscape for a range of purposes. These include producing an environment suitable for game birds used in the gun sports industry and reducing the biomass fuel load to reduce possible wildfire damage to the peat. However, there have been few studies that have interrogated the impacts of this activity on peatland hydrological processes both at the plot scale and at the catchment scale. The EMBER project measured water tables, overland flow, hydraulic conductivity, stream discharge, and a myriad of aquatic invertebrate and peat physical and water chemistry indicators (at plot and stream scale) in ten upland blanket peat catchments in the UK. Five catchments were subject to a history of prescribed rotational patch burning with burning taking place each year over a proportion of the catchment (typically 5-10 %) but where for an individual patch the interval was typically 10-20 years. The other five catchments acted as controls which were not subject to burning, nor confounded by other detrimental activities such as drainage or forestry. Stream flows were flashier in response to rainfall in the catchments with prescribed burning patches and had greater rainfall to runoff efficiencies. Water tables were found to be significantly shallower with a smaller interquartile range for unburnt catchments. In the burnt catchments, more recently burnt plots had significantly greater mean water table depths and water table residence times were much less frequent within the upper 10 cm of the peat profile compared to plots that been burned more than a decade before. The water table residence curves will be explored in the presentation. The occurrence of overland flow was significantly impacted by both burning and time since burn with significantly less overland flow recorded for more recently burnt sites. This ties in well with our water table data since blanket peat systems are

USER FRIENDLY OPEN GIS TOOL FOR LARGE SCALE DATA ASSIMILATION – A CASE STUDY OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. K. Gupta

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Open source software (OSS coding has tremendous advantages over proprietary software. These are primarily fuelled by high level programming languages (JAVA, C++, Python etc... and open source geospatial libraries (GDAL/OGR, GEOS, GeoTools etc.. Quantum GIS (QGIS is a popular open source GIS package, which is licensed under GNU GPL and is written in C++. It allows users to perform specialised tasks by creating plugins in C++ and Python. This research article emphasises on exploiting this capability of QGIS to build and implement plugins across multiple platforms using the easy to learn – Python programming language. In the present study, a tool has been developed to assimilate large spatio-temporal datasets such as national level gridded rainfall, temperature, topographic (digital elevation model, slope, aspect, landuse/landcover and multi-layer soil data for input into hydrological models. At present this tool has been developed for Indian sub-continent. An attempt is also made to use popular scientific and numerical libraries to create custom applications for digital inclusion. In the hydrological modelling calibration and validation are important steps which are repetitively carried out for the same study region. As such the developed tool will be user friendly and used efficiently for these repetitive processes by reducing the time required for data management and handling. Moreover, it was found that the developed tool can easily assimilate large dataset in an organised manner.

Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

Seismic safety in conducting large-scale blasts

Science.gov (United States)

Mashukov, I. V.; Chaplygin, V. V.; Domanov, V. P.; Semin, A. A.; Klimkin, M. A.

2017-09-01

In mining enterprises to prepare hard rocks for excavation a drilling and blasting method is used. With the approach of mining operations to settlements the negative effect of large-scale blasts increases. To assess the level of seismic impact of large-scale blasts the scientific staff of Siberian State Industrial University carried out expertise for coal mines and iron ore enterprises. Determination of the magnitude of surface seismic vibrations caused by mass explosions was performed using seismic receivers, an analog-digital converter with recording on a laptop. The registration results of surface seismic vibrations during production of more than 280 large-scale blasts at 17 mining enterprises in 22 settlements are presented. The maximum velocity values of the Earth’s surface vibrations are determined. The safety evaluation of seismic effect was carried out according to the permissible value of vibration velocity. For cases with exceedance of permissible values recommendations were developed to reduce the level of seismic impact.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

Science.gov (United States)

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscal...

Semi-Automated Air-Coupled Impact-Echo Method for Large-Scale Parkade Structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tyler Epp

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Structural Health Monitoring (SHM has moved to data-dense systems, utilizing numerous sensor types to monitor infrastructure, such as bridges and dams, more regularly. One of the issues faced in this endeavour is the scale of the inspected structures and the time it takes to carry out testing. Installing automated systems that can provide measurements in a timely manner is one way of overcoming these obstacles. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN application that determines intact and damaged locations from a small training sample of impact-echo data, using air-coupled microphones from a reinforced concrete beam in lab conditions and data collected from a field experiment in a parking garage. The impact-echo testing in the field is carried out in a semi-autonomous manner to expedite the front end of the in situ damage detection testing. The use of an ANN removes the need for a user-defined cutoff value for the classification of intact and damaged locations when a least-square distance approach is used. It is postulated that this may contribute significantly to testing time reduction when monitoring large-scale civil Reinforced Concrete (RC structures.

Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

2017-04-01

Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were

Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

2008-01-01

In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

A method for the assessment of the visual impact caused by the large-scale deployment of renewable-energy facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodrigues, Marcos; Montanes, Carlos; Fueyo, Norberto

2010-01-01

The production of energy from renewable sources requires a significantly larger use of the territory compared with conventional (fossil and nuclear) sources. For large penetrations of renewable technologies, such as wind power, the overall visual impact at the national level can be substantial, and may prompt public reaction. This study develops a methodology for the assessment of the visual impact that can be used to measure and report the level of impact caused by several renewable technologies (wind farms, solar photovoltaic plants or solar thermal ones), both at the local and regional (e.g. national) scales. Applications are shown to several large-scale, hypothetical scenarios of wind and solar-energy penetration in Spain, and also to the vicinity of an actual, single wind farm.

Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferguson, Ian M; Maxwell, Reed M

2012-01-01

Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices. (letter)

Watershed Scale Impacts of Stormwater Green Infrastructure ...

Science.gov (United States)

Despite the increasing use of urban stormwater green infrastructure (SGI), including detention ponds and rain gardens, few studies have quantified the cumulative effects of multiple SGI projects on hydrology and water quality at the watershed scale. To assess the effects of SGI, Baltimore County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, and Washington, DC, were selected based on the availability of data on SGI, water quality, and stream flow. The watershed scale impact of SGI was evaluated by assessing how increased spatial density of SGI correlates with stream hydrology and nitrogen exports over space and time. The most common SGI types were detention ponds (58%), followed by marshes (12%), sand filters (9%), wet ponds (7%), infiltration trenches (4%), and rain gardens (2%). When controlling for watersheds size and percent impervious surface cover, watersheds with greater amounts of SGI (>10% SGI) have 44% lower peak runoff, 26% less frequent runoff events, and 26% less variable runoff than watersheds with lower SGI. Watersheds with more SGI also show 44% less NO3− and 48% less total nitrogen exports compared to watersheds with minimal SGI. There was no significant reduction in combined sewer overflows in watersheds with greater SGI. Based on specific SGI types, infiltration trenches (R2 = 0.35) showed the strongest correlation with hydrologic metrics, likely due to their ability to attenuate flow, while bioretention (R2 = 0.19) and wet ponds (R2 = 0.12) showed stronger

Large scale electrolysers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

B Bello; M Junker

2006-01-01

Hydrogen production by water electrolysis represents nearly 4 % of the world hydrogen production. Future development of hydrogen vehicles will require large quantities of hydrogen. Installation of large scale hydrogen production plants will be needed. In this context, development of low cost large scale electrolysers that could use 'clean power' seems necessary. ALPHEA HYDROGEN, an European network and center of expertise on hydrogen and fuel cells, has performed for its members a study in 2005 to evaluate the potential of large scale electrolysers to produce hydrogen in the future. The different electrolysis technologies were compared. Then, a state of art of the electrolysis modules currently available was made. A review of the large scale electrolysis plants that have been installed in the world was also realized. The main projects related to large scale electrolysis were also listed. Economy of large scale electrolysers has been discussed. The influence of energy prices on the hydrogen production cost by large scale electrolysis was evaluated. (authors)

A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gosling, S.N.; Zaherpour, J.J.; Mount, N.J.; Hattermann, F.F.; Dankers, R.; Arheimer, B.; Breuer, L.; Ding, J.; Haddeland, I.; Kumar, R.; Kundu, D.; Liu, J.; van Griensven, A.; Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Vetter, T.; Wang, X.; Zhang, X.

2017-01-01

We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi,

Flathead River Basin Hydrologic Observatory, Northern Rocky Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Woessner, W. W.; Running, S. W.; Potts, D. F.; Kimball, J. S.; Deluca, T. H.; Fagre, D. B.; Makepeace, S.; Hendrix, M. S.; Lorang, M. S.; Ellis, B. K.; Lafave, J.; Harper, J.

2004-12-01

We are proposing the 22, 515 km2 glacially-sculpted Flathead River Basin located in Montana and British Columbia as a Hydrologic Observatory. This hydrologic landscape is diverse and includes large pristine watersheds, rapidly developing intermountain valleys, and a 95 km2 regulated reservoir and 510 km2 lake. The basin has a topographic gradient of over 2,339 m, and spans high alpine to arid climatic zones and a range of biomes. Stream flows are snow-melt dominated and underpinned by groundwater baseflow. The site headwaters contain 37 glaciers and thousands of square kilometers of watersheds in which fire and disease are the only disturbances. In contrast, the HO also contains watersheds at multiple scales that were dominated by glaciers within the last 100 years but are now glacier free, impacted by timber harvests and fires of varying ages to varying degrees, modified by water management practices including irrigation diversion and dams, and altered by development for homes, cities and agriculture. This Observatory provides a sensitive monitor of historic and future climatic shifts, air shed influences and impacts, and the consequences of land and water management practices on the hydrologic system. The HO watersheds are some of the only pristine watersheds left in the contiguous U.S.. They provide critical habitat for key species including the native threaten bull trout and lynx, and the listed western cutthroat trout, bald eagle, gray wolf and the grizzly bear. For the last several thousand years this system has been dominated by snow-melt runoff and moderated by large quantities of water stored in glacial ice. However, the timing and magnitude of droughts and summer flows have changed dramatically. With the information that can be gleaned from sediment cores and landscape records at different scales, this HO provides scientists with opportunities to establish baseline watershed conditions and data on natural hydrologic variability within the system. Such a

Data for Figures and Tables in "Impacts of Different Characterizations of Large-Scale Background on Simulated Regional-Scale Ozone Over the Continental U.S."

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the data used in the Figures and Tables of the manuscript "Impacts of Different Characterizations of Large-Scale Background on Simulated...

How runoff begins (and ends): characterizing hydrologic response at the catchment scale

Science.gov (United States)

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Loague, Keith

2013-01-01

Improved understanding of the complex dynamics associated with spatially and temporally variable runoff response is needed to better understand the hydrology component of interdisciplinary problems. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterize the environmental controls on runoff generation for the range of different streamflow-generation mechanisms illustrated in the classic Dunne diagram. The comprehensive physics-based model of coupled surface-subsurface flow, InHM, is employed in a heuristic mode. InHM has been employed previously to successfully simulate the observed hydrologic response at four diverse, well-characterized catchments, which provides the foundation for this study. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested terrain; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland. The InHM boundary-value problems for these four catchments provide the corner-stones for alternative simulation scenarios designed to address the question of how runoff begins (and ends). Simulated rainfall-runoff events are used to systematically explore the impact of soil-hydraulic properties and rainfall characteristics. This approach facilitates quantitative analysis of both integrated and distributed hydrologic responses at high-spatial and temporal resolution over the wide range of environmental conditions represented by the four catchments. The results from 140 unique simulation scenarios illustrate how rainfall intensity/depth, subsurface permeability contrasts, characteristic curve shapes, and topography provide important controls on the hydrologic-response dynamics. The processes by which runoff begins (and ends) are shown, in large part, to be defined by the relative rates of rainfall, infiltration, lateral flow convergence, and storage dynamics within the variably saturated soil layers.

Hydrological externalities and livelihoods impacts: Informed communities for better resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, V. Ratna

2012-01-01

SummaryHydrological knowledge or information has mostly remained in the domain of scientific community. The communities that interact with the hydrological aspects such as groundwater and surface water on a day to day basis are hardly aware of the information that could critically influence their livelihoods. From the perspective of the communities' information pertaining to groundwater aquifer characters, potential to provide the water resource, surface groundwater interactions in varying geo-hydrological conditions are important. The 'public good' nature of the resources and their linkages with ecological systems gives rise to externalities that could be pervasive. In a number of countries, especially the developing countries, groundwater is the single largest source of drinking as well as irrigation water. In the absence of scientific information with the communities, extraction of groundwater resources for productive purposes has become a risky venture leading to adverse impacts on livelihoods. The externalities associated with over exploitation of groundwater resources and the resulting widespread well failure is identified as one of the main reasons for pushing farmers into debt trap and one of the reasons for farmer suicides in India. The negative externalities are increasingly becoming severe in the context of climate variability. This paper attempts to highlight the importance of hydrological information to the user communities from a socioeconomic perspective using a newly developed framework 'REDUCE' based on theories of effective communication. It shows, based on the evidence, how farming communities are getting affected in the absence of the basic hydrological information across socioeconomic groups. It is argued, using relevant information that the negative externalities could be mitigated to a large extent with proper dissemination of information among the communities and capacitating them to measure and use the information on their own. In order to

Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2013-01-01

Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, T. J.; Perera, C.; Corrigan, C.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic models represent a significant tool for understanding, predicting, and responding to the impacts of water on society and society on water resources and, as such, are used extensively in water resources planning and management. Given this important role, the validity and fidelity of hydrologic models is imperative. While extensive focus has been paid to improving hydrologic models through better process representation, better parameter estimation, and better uncertainty quantification, significant challenges remain. In this study, we explore a number of competing model calibration scenarios for simple, coupled snowmelt-runoff models to better understand the sensitivity / variability of parameterizations and its impact on model performance, robustness, fidelity, and transferability. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of coupled snowmelt-runoff model parameterizations to alterations in calibration approach, underscores the concept of information content in hydrologic modeling, and provides insight into potential strategies for improving model robustness / fidelity.

Temporal variation and scaling of parameters for a monthly hydrologic model

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Wang, Dingbao; Wang, Weiguang

2018-03-01

The temporal variation of model parameters is affected by the catchment conditions and has a significant impact on hydrological simulation. This study aims to evaluate the seasonality and downscaling of model parameter across time scales based on monthly and mean annual water balance models with a common model framework. Two parameters of the monthly model, i.e., k and m, are assumed to be time-variant at different months. Based on the hydrological data set from 121 MOPEX catchments in the United States, we firstly analyzed the correlation between parameters (k and m) and catchment properties (NDVI and frequency of rainfall events, α). The results show that parameter k is positively correlated with NDVI or α, while the correlation is opposite for parameter m, indicating that precipitation and vegetation affect monthly water balance by controlling temporal variation of parameters k and m. The multiple linear regression is then used to fit the relationship between ε and the means and coefficient of variations of parameters k and m. Based on the empirical equation and the correlations between the time-variant parameters and NDVI, the mean annual parameter ε is downscaled to monthly k and m. The results show that it has lower NSEs than these from model with time-variant k and m being calibrated through SCE-UA, while for several study catchments, it has higher NSEs than that of the model with constant parameters. The proposed method is feasible and provides a useful tool for temporal scaling of model parameter.

Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts under climate changes over the Nenjiang River Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hao; Zhang, Wanchang

2017-10-01

The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was adopted for investigating spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change over the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) based on a set of gridded forcing dataset at 1/12th degree resolution from 1970 to 2013. Basin-scale changes in the input forcing data and the simulated hydrological variables of the NRB, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major hydrometric stations were examined, which suggested that the model was performed fairly satisfactory in reproducing the observed discharges, meanwhile, the snow cover and evapotranspiration in temporal and spatial patterns were simulated reasonably corresponded to the remotely sensed ones. Wetland maps produced by multi-sources satellite images covering the entire basin between 1978 and 2008 were also utilized for investigating the responses and feedbacks of hydrological regimes on wetland dynamics. Results revealed that significant decreasing trends appeared in annual, spring and autumn streamflow demonstrated strong affection of precipitation and temperature changes over the study watershed, and the effects of climate change on the runoff reduction varied in the sub-basin area over different time scales. The proportion of evapotranspiration to precipitation characterized several severe fluctuations in droughts and floods took place in the region, which implied the enhanced sensitiveness and vulnerability of hydrologic regimes to changing environment of the region. Furthermore, it was found that the different types of wetlands undergone quite unique variation features with the varied hydro-meteorological conditions over the region, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This study provided effective scientific basis for water resource managers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies that address the consequences of climate changes.

Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Nasonova, Olga N.; Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006-2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

Spatial connectivity, scaling, and temporal trajectories as emergent urban stormwater impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Jovanovic, T.; Gironas, J. A.; Hale, R. L.; Mejia, A.

2016-12-01

Urban watersheds are structurally complex systems comprised of multiple components (e.g., streets, pipes, ponds, vegetated swales, wetlands, riparian corridors, etc.). These multiple engineered components interact in unanticipated and nontrivial ways with topographic conditions, climate variability, land use/land cover changes, and the underlying eco-hydrogeomorphic dynamics. Such interactions can result in emergent urban stormwater impacts with cascading effects that can negatively influence the overall functioning of the urban watershed. For example, the interaction among many detention ponds has been shown, in some situations, to synchronize flow volumes and ultimately lead to downstream flow amplifications and increased pollutant mobilization. Additionally, interactions occur at multiple temporal and spatial scales requiring that urban stormwater dynamics be represented at the long-term temporal (decadal) and across spatial scales (from the single lot to the watershed scale). In this study, we develop and implement an event-based, high-resolution, network hydro-engineering model (NHEM), and demonstrate an approach to reconstruct the long-term regional infrastructure and land use/land cover conditions of an urban watershed. As the study area, we select an urban watershed in the metropolitan area of Scottsdale, Arizona. Using the reconstructed landscapes to drive the NHEM, we find that distinct surficial, hydrologic connectivity patterns result from the intersection of hydrologic processes, infrastructure, and land use/land cover arrangements. These spatial patters, in turn, exhibit scaling characteristics. For example, the scaling of urban watershed dispersion mechanisms shows altered scaling exponents with respect to pre-urban conditions. For example, the scaling exponent associated with geomorphic dispersion tends to increase for urban conditions, reflecting increased surficial path heterogeneity. Both the connectivity and scaling results can be used to

The subcatchment- and catchment-scale hydrology of a boreal headwater peatland complex with sporadic permafrost.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonnentag, O.; Helbig, M.; Connon, R.; Hould Gosselin, G.; Ryu, Y.; Karoline, W.; Hanisch, J.; Moore, T. R.; Quinton, W. L.

2017-12-01

The permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere has been experiencing twice the rate of climate warming compared to the rest of the Earth, resulting in the degradation of the cryosphere. A large portion of the high-latitude boreal forests of northwestern Canada grows on low-lying organic-rich lands with relative warm and thin isolated, sporadic and discontinuous permafrost. Along this southern limit of permafrost, increasingly warmer temperatures have caused widespread permafrost thaw leading to land cover changes at unprecedented rates. A prominent change includes wetland expansion at the expense of Picea mariana (black spruce)-dominated forest due to ground surface subsidence caused by the thawing of ice-rich permafrost leading to collapsing peat plateaus. Recent conceptual advances have provided important new insights into high-latitude boreal forest hydrology. However, refined quantitative understanding of the mechanisms behind water storage and movement at subcatchment and catchment scales is needed from a water resources management perspective. Here we combine multi-year daily runoff measurements with spatially explicit estimates of evapotranspiration, modelled with the Breathing Earth System Simulator, to characterize the monthly growing season catchment scale ( 150 km2) hydrological response of a boreal headwater peatland complex with sporadic permafrost in the southern Northwest Territories. The corresponding water budget components at subcatchment scale ( 0.1 km2) were obtained from concurrent cutthroat flume runoff and eddy covariance evapotranspiration measurements. The highly significant linear relationships for runoff (r2=0.64) and evapotranspiration (r2=0.75) between subcatchment and catchment scales suggest that the mineral upland-dominated downstream portion of the catchment acts hydrologically similar to the headwater portion dominated by boreal peatland complexes. Breakpoint analysis in combination with moving window statistics on multi

Stream-groundwater exchange and hydrologic turnover at the network scale

Science.gov (United States)

Covino, Tim; McGlynn, Brian; Mallard, John

2011-12-01

The exchange of water between streams and groundwater can influence stream water quality, hydrologic mass balances, and attenuate solute export from watersheds. We used conservative tracer injections (chloride, Cl-) across 10 stream reaches to investigate stream water gains and losses from and to groundwater at larger spatial and temporal scales than typically associated with hyporheic exchanges. We found strong relationships between reach discharge, median tracer velocity, and gross hydrologic loss across a range of stream morphologies and sizes in the 11.4 km2 Bull Trout Watershed of central ID. We implemented these empirical relationships in a numerical network model and simulated stream water gains and losses and subsequent fractional hydrologic turnover across the stream network. We found that stream gains and losses from and to groundwater can influence source water contributions and stream water compositions across stream networks. Quantifying proportional influences of source water contributions from runoff generation locations across the network on stream water composition can provide insight into the internal mechanisms that partially control the hydrologic and biogeochemical signatures observed along networks and at watershed outlets.

Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bala, Govindasamy; Nag, Bappaditya [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change and Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India)

2012-09-15

A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO{sub 2} leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (-8.2 W m{sup -2}) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO{sub 2} (3.3 W m{sup -2}) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (-4.2 W m{sup -2}). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification. (orig.)

Hydrological Response and Complex Impact Pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in Eastern and Southern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Siderius, C.; Gannon, K. E.; Ndiyoi, M.; Opere, A.; Batisani, N.; Olago, D.; Pardoe, J.; Conway, D.

2018-01-01

The 2015/2016 El Niño has been classified as one of the three most severe on record. El Niño teleconnections are commonly associated with droughts in southern Africa and high precipitation in eastern Africa. Despite their relatively frequent occurrence, evidence for their hydrological effects and impacts beyond agriculture is limited. We examine the hydrological response and impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. We use in situ and remotely sensed time series of precipitation, river flow, and lake levels complemented by qualitative insights from interviews with key organizations in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. Our results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. Key informants characterized this El Niño through record high temperatures and water supply disruption in Botswana and through hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño teleconnection did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme precipitation was limited and caused localized impacts. The hydrological impacts in southern Africa were severe and complex, strongly exacerbated by dry antecedent conditions, recent changes in exposure and sensitivity and management decisions. Improved understanding of hydrological responses and the complexity of differing impact pathways can support design of more adaptive, region-specific management strategies.

Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, Carol R

2011-06-01

Urbanisation produces numerous changes in the natural environments it replaces. The impacts include habitat fragmentation and changes to both the quality and quantity of the stormwater runoff, and result in changes to hydrological systems. This review integrates research in relatively diverse areas to examine how the impacts of urban imperviousness on hydrological systems can be quantified and modelled. It examines the nature of reported impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems over four decades, including the effects of changes in imperviousness within catchments, and some inconsistencies in studies of the impacts of urbanisation. The distribution of imperviousness within urban areas is important in understanding the impacts of urbanisation and quantification requires detailed characterisation of urban areas. As a result most mapping of urban areas uses remote sensing techniques and this review examines a range of techniques using medium and high resolution imagery, including spectral unmixing. The third section examines the ways in which scientists and hydrological and environmental engineers model and quantify water flows in urban areas, the nature of hydrological models and methods for their calibration. The final section examines additional factors which influence the impact of impervious surfaces and some uncertainties that exist in current knowledge. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the hydrological consistency of satellite based water cycle components

KAUST Repository

Lopez Valencia, Oliver Miguel

2016-06-15

Advances in multi-satellite based observations of the earth system have provided the capacity to retrieve information across a wide-range of land surface hydrological components and provided an opportunity to characterize terrestrial processes from a completely new perspective. Given the spatial advantage that space-based observations offer, several regional-to-global scale products have been developed, offering insights into the multi-scale behaviour and variability of hydrological states and fluxes. However, one of the key challenges in the use of satellite-based products is characterizing the degree to which they provide realistic and representative estimates of the underlying retrieval: that is, how accurate are the hydrological components derived from satellite observations? The challenge is intrinsically linked to issues of scale, since the availability of high-quality in-situ data is limited, and even where it does exist, is generally not commensurate to the resolution of the satellite observation. Basin-scale studies have shown considerable variability in achieving water budget closure with any degree of accuracy using satellite estimates of the water cycle. In order to assess the suitability of this type of approach for evaluating hydrological observations, it makes sense to first test it over environments with restricted hydrological inputs, before applying it to more hydrological complex basins. Here we explore the concept of hydrological consistency, i.e. the physical considerations that the water budget impose on the hydrologic fluxes and states to be temporally and spatially linked, to evaluate the reproduction of a set of large-scale evaporation (E) products by using a combination of satellite rainfall (P) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations of storage change, focusing on arid and semi-arid environments, where the hydrological flows can be more realistically described. Our results indicate no persistent hydrological

From Rain Tanks to Catchments: Use of Low-Impact Development To Address Hydrologic Symptoms of the Urban Stream Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Askarizadeh, Asal; Rippy, Megan A; Fletcher, Tim D; Feldman, David L; Peng, Jian; Bowler, Peter; Mehring, Andrew S; Winfrey, Brandon K; Vrugt, Jasper A; AghaKouchak, Amir; Jiang, Sunny C; Sanders, Brett F; Levin, Lisa A; Taylor, Scott; Grant, Stanley B

2015-10-06

Catchment urbanization perturbs the water and sediment budgets of streams, degrades stream health and function, and causes a constellation of flow, water quality, and ecological symptoms collectively known as the urban stream syndrome. Low-impact development (LID) technologies address the hydrologic symptoms of the urban stream syndrome by mimicking natural flow paths and restoring a natural water balance. Over annual time scales, the volumes of stormwater that should be infiltrated and harvested can be estimated from a catchment-scale water-balance given local climate conditions and preurban land cover. For all but the wettest regions of the world, a much larger volume of stormwater runoff should be harvested than infiltrated to maintain stream hydrology in a preurban state. Efforts to prevent or reverse hydrologic symptoms associated with the urban stream syndrome will therefore require: (1) selecting the right mix of LID technologies that provide regionally tailored ratios of stormwater harvesting and infiltration; (2) integrating these LID technologies into next-generation drainage systems; (3) maximizing potential cobenefits including water supply augmentation, flood protection, improved water quality, and urban amenities; and (4) long-term hydrologic monitoring to evaluate the efficacy of LID interventions.

SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

Economic valuation of the downstream hydrological effects of land use change: Large hydroelectric reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Aylward, Bruce Allan

1998-12-01

Land use change that accompanies economic development and population growth is intended to raise the economic productivity of land. An inevitable by product of this process is the alteration of natural vegetation and downstream hydrological function. This dissertation explores hydrological externalities of land use change in detail, particularly with regard to their economic impact on large hydroelectric reservoirs (LHRs). A review of the linkages between land use, hydrological function and downstream economic activity suggests that on theoretical grounds the net welfare effect of land use change on hydrological function will be indeterminate. Review of the literature suggests that, though the effects of downstream sedimentation will typically be negative, they may often be of little practical significance. The literature on water quantity impacts is sparse at best. This is most surprising in the case of the literature on LHRs where the potentially important and positive effects of increased water yield are typically ignored in favor of simplistic efforts to document the negative effects of reservoir sedimentation. In order to improve the methodological basis for the economic valuation of hydrological externalities, the dissertation considers existing techniques for the evaluation of non-marketed goods and services, clarifying the manner in which they have been and, in the future, may be applied to the topic at hand. A deterministic simulation model is then constructed for the case of LHRs. The model incorporates the effect of changes in water yield, the seasonal pattern of water yield and sedimentation of live and dead storage volumes as they affect reservoir operation and the production of hydroelectricity. The welfare effects of changes in the productivity of the LHR in the short run and changes to the power system expansion plan in the long run are evaluated using the marginal opportunity costs of alternative power sources and power plants, respectively. A case

Large-scale runoff generation – parsimonious parameterisation using high-resolution topography

OpenAIRE

L. Gong; S. Halldin; C.-Y. Xu

2010-01-01

World water resources have primarily been analysed by global-scale hydrological models in the last decades. Runoff generation in many of these models are based on process formulations developed at catchments scales. The division between slow runoff (baseflow) and fast runoff is primarily governed by slope and spatial distribution of effective water storage capacity, both acting a very small scales. Many hydrological models, e.g. VIC, account for the spatial storage variability in terms...

Trends in large-scale testing of reactor structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blejwas, T.E.

2003-01-01

Large-scale tests of reactor structures have been conducted at Sandia National Laboratories since the late 1970s. This paper describes a number of different large-scale impact tests, pressurization tests of models of containment structures, and thermal-pressure tests of models of reactor pressure vessels. The advantages of large-scale testing are evident, but cost, in particular limits its use. As computer models have grown in size, such as number of degrees of freedom, the advent of computer graphics has made possible very realistic representation of results - results that may not accurately represent reality. A necessary condition to avoiding this pitfall is the validation of the analytical methods and underlying physical representations. Ironically, the immensely larger computer models sometimes increase the need for large-scale testing, because the modeling is applied to increasing more complex structural systems and/or more complex physical phenomena. Unfortunately, the cost of large-scale tests is a disadvantage that will likely severely limit similar testing in the future. International collaborations may provide the best mechanism for funding future programs with large-scale tests. (author)

Dendritic Connectivity, Heterogeneity, and Scaling in Urban Stormwater Networks: Implications for Socio-Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Mejia, A.; Jovanovic, T.; Hale, R. L.; Gironas, J. A.

2017-12-01

Urban stormwater networks (USNs) are unique dendritic (tree-like) structures that combine both artificial (e.g., swales and pipes) and natural (e.g., streams and wetlands) components. They are central to stream ecosystem structure and function in urban watersheds. The emphasis of conventional stormwater management, however, has been on localized, temporal impacts (e.g., changes to hydrographs at discrete locations), and the performance of individual stormwater control measures. This is the case even though control measures are implemented to prevent impacts on the USN. We develop a modeling approach to retrospectively study hydrological fluxes and states in USNs and apply the model to an urban watershed in Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. Using outputs from the model, we analyze over space and time the network properties of dendritic connectivity, heterogeneity, and scaling. Results show that as the network growth over time, due to increasing urbanization, it tends to become more homogenous in terms of topological features but increasingly heterogeneous in terms of dynamic features. We further use the modeling results to address socio-hydrological implications for USNs. We find that the adoption over time of evolving management strategies (e.g., widespread implementation of vegetated swales and retention ponds versus pipes) may be locally beneficial to the USN but benefits may not propagate systematically through the network. The latter can be reinforced by sudden, perhaps unintended, changes to the overall dendritic connectivity.

Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veldkamp, T I E; Zhao, F; Ward, P J; Moel, H de; Aerts, J C J H; Schmied, H Müller; Portmann, F T; Masaki, Y; Pokhrel, Y; Liu, X; Satoh, Yusuke; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, S N; Zaherpour, J; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-01-01

Human activity has a profound influence on river discharges, hydrological extremes and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the

Pollutant Transport and Fate: Relations Between Flow-paths and Downstream Impacts of Human Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Thorslund, J.; Jarsjo, J.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The quality of freshwater resources is increasingly impacted by human activities. Humans also extensively change the structure of landscapes, which may alter natural hydrological processes. To manage and maintain freshwater of good water quality, it is critical to understand how pollutants are released into, transported and transformed within the hydrological system. Some key scientific questions include: What are net downstream impacts of pollutants across different hydroclimatic and human disturbance conditions, and on different scales? What are the functions within and between components of the landscape, such as wetlands, on mitigating pollutant load delivery to downstream recipients? We explore these questions by synthesizing results from several relevant case study examples of intensely human-impacted hydrological systems. These case study sites have been specifically evaluated in terms of net impact of human activities on pollutant input to the aquatic system, as well as flow-path distributions trough wetlands as a potential ecosystem service of pollutant mitigation. Results shows that although individual wetlands have high retention capacity, efficient net retention effects were not always achieved at a larger landscape scale. Evidence suggests that the function of wetlands as mitigation solutions to pollutant loads is largely controlled by large-scale parallel and circular flow-paths, through which multiple wetlands are interconnected in the landscape. To achieve net mitigation effects at large scale, a large fraction of the polluted large-scale flows must be transported through multiple connected wetlands. Although such large-scale flow interactions are critical for assessing water pollution spreading and fate through the landscape, our synthesis shows a frequent lack of knowledge at such scales. We suggest ways forward for addressing the mismatch between the large scales at which key pollutant pressures and water quality changes take place and the

Assessing Human Modifications to Floodplains using Large-Scale Hydrogeomorphic Floodplain Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, R. R.; Scheel, K.; Nardi, F.; Annis, A.

2017-12-01

Human modifications to floodplains for water resource and flood management purposes have significantly transformed river-floodplain connectivity dynamics in many watersheds. Bridges, levees, reservoirs, shifts in land use, and other hydraulic engineering works have altered flow patterns and caused changes in the timing and extent of floodplain inundation processes. These hydrogeomorphic changes have likely resulted in negative impacts to aquatic habitat and ecological processes. The availability of large-scale topographic datasets at high resolution provide an opportunity for detecting anthropogenic impacts by means of geomorphic mapping. We have developed and are implementing a methodology for comparing a hydrogeomorphic floodplain mapping technique to hydraulically-modeled floodplain boundaries to estimate floodplain loss due to human activities. Our hydrogeomorphic mapping methodology assumes that river valley morphology intrinsically includes information on flood-driven erosion and depositional phenomena. We use a digital elevation model-based algorithm to identify the floodplain as the area of the fluvial corridor laying below water reference levels, which are estimated using a simplified hydrologic model. Results from our hydrogeomorphic method are compared to hydraulically-derived flood zone maps and spatial datasets of levee protected-areas to explore where water management features, such as levees, have changed floodplain dynamics and landscape features. Parameters associated with commonly used F-index functions are quantified and analyzed to better understand how floodplain areas have been reduced within a basin. Preliminary results indicate that the hydrogeomorphic floodplain model is useful for quickly delineating floodplains at large watershed scales, but further analyses are needed to understand the caveats for using the model in determining floodplain loss due to levees. We plan to continue this work by exploring the spatial dependencies of the F

Synthesis of Hydrologic and Hydraulic Impacts : Technical Report

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-01

A substantial portion of the cost of highway projects (approximately 40%, according to one in-house TxDOT : estimate) is for drainage infrastructure, which is intended to minimize any adverse hydrologic and hydraulic : (H&H) impacts of the project. Y...

Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sushant Mehan

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Weather extremes and climate variability directly impact the hydrological cycle influencing agricultural productivity. The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. In this study, we used three climate change scenarios to simulate the impact on local hydrology of a small agricultural watershed. The three emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007 analyzed in this study were A2 (high emission, A1B (medium emission, and B1 (low emission. A process based hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and validated for the Skunk Creek Watershed located in eastern South Dakota. The model performance coefficients revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed stream flow at both monthly and daily time step. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly model performace was 0.87 for the calibration period and 0.76 for validation period. The future climate scenarios were built for the mid-21st century time period ranging from 2046 to 2065. The future climate data analysis showed an increase in temperatures between 2.2 °C to 3.3 °C and a decrease in precipitation from 1.8% to 4.5% expected under three different climate change scenarios. A sharp decline in stream flow (95.92%–96.32%, run-off (83.46%–87.00%, total water yield (90.67%–91.60%, soil water storage (89.99%–92.47%, and seasonal snow melt (37.64%–43.06% are predicted to occur by the mid-21st century. In addition, an increase in evapotranspirative losses (2%–3% is expected to occur within the watershed when compared with the baseline period. Overall, these results indicate that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydrological and agricultural drought due to limited water availability. These results are limited to the available climate projections, and future refinement in

Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

2015-12-01

Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we

An assessment of basin-scale glaciological and hydrological sensitivities in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shea, Joseph M.; Immerzeel, Walter W.

2016-01-01

Glacier responses to future climate change will affect hydrology at sub-basin scales. The main goal of this study is to assess glaciological and hydrological sensitivities of sub-basins throughout the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region. We use a simple geometrical analysis based on a full glacier inventory

Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

Basin-scale impacts of hydropower development on the Mompós Depression wetlands, Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Angarita, Héctor; Wickel, Albertus J.; Sieber, Jack; Chavarro, John; Maldonado-Ocampo, Javier A.; Herrera-R., Guido A.; Delgado, Juliana; Purkey, David

2018-05-01

A number of large hydropower dams are currently under development or in an advanced stage of planning in the Magdalena River basin, Colombia, spelling uncertainty for the Mompós Depression wetlands, one of the largest wetland systems in South America at 3400 km2. Annual large-scale inundation of floodplains and their associated wetlands regulates water, nutrient, and sediment cycles, which in turn sustain a wealth of ecological processes and ecosystem services, including critical food supplies. In this study, we implemented an integrated approach focused on key attributes of ecologically functional floodplains: (1) hydrologic connectivity between the river and the floodplain, and between upstream and downstream sections; (2) hydrologic variability patterns and their links to local and regional processes; and (3) the spatial scale required to sustain floodplain-associated processes and benefits, like migratory fish biodiversity. The implemented framework provides an explicit quantification of the nonlinear or direct response relationship of those considerations with hydropower development. The proposed framework was used to develop a comparative analysis of the potential effects of the hydropower expansion necessary to meet projected 2050 electricity requirements. As part of this study, we developed an enhancement of the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) that allows resolution of the floodplains water balance at a medium scale (˜ 1000 to 10 000 km2) and evaluation of the potential impacts of upstream water management practices. In the case of the Mompós Depression wetlands, our results indicate that the potential additional impacts of new hydropower infrastructure with respect to baseline conditions can range up to one order of magnitude between scenarios that are comparable in terms of energy capacity. Fragmentation of connectivity corridors between lowland floodplains and upstream spawning habitats and reduction of sediment loads show the greatest

Environmental impact assessment and environmental audit in large-scale public infrastructure construction: the case of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Guizhen; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yonglong

2009-09-01

Large-scale public infrastructure projects have featured in China's modernization course since the early 1980s. During the early stages of China's rapid economic development, public attention focused on the economic and social impact of high-profile construction projects. In recent years, however, we have seen a shift in public concern toward the environmental and ecological effects of such projects, and today governments are required to provide valid environmental impact assessments prior to allowing large-scale construction. The official requirement for the monitoring of environmental conditions has led to an increased number of debates in recent years regarding the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and Governmental Environmental Audits (GEAs) as environmental safeguards in instances of large-scale construction. Although EIA and GEA are conducted by different institutions and have different goals and enforcement potential, these two practices can be closely related in terms of methodology. This article cites the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway as an instance in which EIA and GEA offer complementary approaches to environmental impact management. This study concludes that the GEA approach can serve as an effective follow-up to the EIA and establishes that the EIA lays a base for conducting future GEAs. The relationship that emerges through a study of the Railway's construction calls for more deliberate institutional arrangements and cooperation if the two practices are to be used in concert to optimal effect.

Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions. Final report, November 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-12-31

A study is described on the hydrological and geotechnical behavior of an oil shale solid waste. The objective was to obtain information which can be used to assess the environmental impacts of oil shale solid waste disposal in the Green River Basin. The spent shale used in this study was combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas process by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Company, Inc. Laboratory bench-scale testing included index properties, such as grain size distribution and Atterberg limits, and tests for engineering properties including hydraulic conductivity and shear strength. Large-scale tests were conducted on model spent shale waste embankments to evaluate hydrological response, including infiltration, runoff, and seepage. Large-scale tests were conducted at a field site in western Colorado and in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL)at the University of Wyoming. The ESL tests allowed the investigators to control rainfall and temperature, providing information on the hydrological response of spent shale under simulated severe climatic conditions. All experimental methods, materials, facilities, and instrumentation are described in detail, and results are given and discussed. 34 refs.

Socioeconomic impacts of large-scale developments: implications for high-level nuclear waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.; Hamm, R.R.

1983-01-01

High-level nuclear waste repositories will likely be located in sparsely settled rural areas in the US. These projects will significantly affect the economic, demographic, public service, fiscal, and social (the socioeconomic) dimensions of those rural areas. The impacts and means of mitigating them thus require careful analysis. This paper examines some of the potential socioeconomic impacts likely to occur in rural areas as a result of repository siting and development, and it describes some of the characteristics of mitigation programs that are likely to be necessary, if the impacts are to be addressed. Both (1) standard impacts, those resulting from the fact that, like many other large-scale developments, repositories will involve a substantial number of new workers and residents (relative to the size of existing communities), and (2) special impacts, those resulting from the fact that repositories store radioactive materials, are examined. The discussion indicates that economic, demographic, public service, fiscal, and social impacts (standard and special) of these repositories will be substantial and problematic in many cases. Unless the impacts are effectively addressed with carefully planned and well financed mitigation efforts that insure that high-quality planning information is provided to local residents, and that local residents are involved in impact planning and management throughout the siting and development process, repository siting is unlikely to be effectively and equitably achieved. 44 references

Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiangzheng Deng

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

2017-06-01

Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets

Large-Scale Agriculture and Outgrower Schemes in Ethiopia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wendimu, Mengistu Assefa

, the impact of large-scale agriculture and outgrower schemes on productivity, household welfare and wages in developing countries is highly contentious. Chapter 1 of this thesis provides an introduction to the study, while also reviewing the key debate in the contemporary land ‘grabbing’ and historical large...... sugarcane outgrower scheme on household income and asset stocks. Chapter 5 examines the wages and working conditions in ‘formal’ large-scale and ‘informal’ small-scale irrigated agriculture. The results in Chapter 2 show that moisture stress, the use of untested planting materials, and conflict over land...... commands a higher wage than ‘formal’ large-scale agriculture, while rather different wage determination mechanisms exist in the two sectors. Human capital characteristics (education and experience) partly explain the differences in wages within the formal sector, but play no significant role...

Human-Robot Teaming for Hydrologic Data Gathering at Multiple Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Peschel, J.; Young, S. N.

2017-12-01

The use of personal robot-assistive technology by researchers and practitioners for hydrologic data gathering has grown in recent years as barriers to platform capability, cost, and human-robot interaction have been overcome. One consequence to this growth is a broad availability of unmanned platforms that might or might not be suitable for a specific hydrologic investigation. Through multiple field studies, a set of recommendations has been developed to help guide novice through experienced users in choosing the appropriate unmanned platforms for a given application. This talk will present a series of hydrologic data sets gathered using a human-robot teaming approach that has leveraged unmanned aerial, ground, and surface vehicles over multiple scales. The field case studies discussed will be connected to the best practices, also provided in the presentation. This talk will be of interest to geoscience researchers and practitioners, in general, as well as those working in fields related to emerging technologies.

Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. M. R. Mateo

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Global-scale river models (GRMs are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

Science.gov (United States)

Mateo, Cherry May R.; Yamazaki, Dai; Kim, Hyungjun; Champathong, Adisorn; Vaze, Jai; Oki, Taikan

2017-10-01

Global-scale river models (GRMs) are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC) is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC) is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang

2010-12-01

Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two major drivers influencing streamflow change in large-scale forested watersheds. The greatest challenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is the removal of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantify respective contributions of large-scale forest disturbance and climatic variability on streamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km2) located in the central part of British Columbia, Canada. Long-term (>50 years) data on hydrology, climate, and timber harvesting history represented by equivalent clear-cutting area (ECA) were available to discern climatic and forestry influences on streamflow by three steps. First, effective precipitation, an integrated climatic index, was generated by subtracting evapotranspiration from precipitation. Second, modified double mass curves were developed by plotting accumulated annual streamflow against annual effective precipitation, which presented a much clearer picture of the cumulative effects of forest disturbance on streamflow following removal of climatic influence. The average annual streamflow changes that were attributed to forest disturbances and climatic variability were then estimated to be +58.7 and -72.4 mm, respectively. The positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) values in streamflow change indicated opposite change directions, which suggest an offsetting effect between forest disturbance and climatic variability in the study watershed. Finally, a multivariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was generated to establish quantitative relationships between accumulated annual streamflow deviation attributed to forest disturbances and annual ECA. The model was then used to project streamflow change under various timber harvesting scenarios. The methodology can be effectively applied to any large-scale single watershed where long-term data (>50

Modelling Peatland Hydrology: Three cases from Northern Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Querner, E.P.; Mioduszewski, W.; Povilaitis, A.; Slesicka, A.

2010-01-01

Many of the peatlands that used to extend over large parts of Northern Europe have been reclaimed for agriculture. Human influence continues to have a major impact on the hydrology of those that remain, affecting river flow and groundwater levels. In order to understand this hydrology it is

A new perspective on the regional hydrologic cycle over North and South America

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Shu-Ping

The GEOS-1 vertically-integrated 3-hr moisture flux reanalyses and hourly-gridded United States station precipitation plus a satellite-based, 6-hr global precipitation estimate were employed to investigate the impacts of nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs) on the regional hydrological cycle over the central United States (Part I) and the subtropical plains of South America (Part II). Research stressed the influences of upper-level synoptic-scale waves (i.e., synoptic-scale forcings) upon the regional hydrologic processes, which were explored by the impacts associated with the occurrence of LLJ. Besides the conventional budget analysis, the adopted `synoptic-forcing approach' was proven illustrative in describing these impacts through the down-scaling process of LLJs. In Part 1, the major findings include: (1)the seasonal-averaged hydrological cycle over the Great Plains is strongly affected by the occurrence of GPLLJ, (2)the synoptic-scale forcing provided by the upper-level propagating jet (ULJ) streams is essential in generating the large-scale precipitation after the GPLLJ forms from the diurnal boundary layer process, (3)without the dynamic coupling between the ULJ and LLJ, the impact of LLJ on the hydrological cycle is demonstrated to be less important, and (4)the importance of synoptic-scale forcings in preconditioning the setting of wet/dry seasons in the interannual variability of rainfall anomaly is further illustrated by examining the changes of intensity as well as the occurrence frequency between the different types of LLJ. In Part II of this study, it was found that the occurrence of Andean LLJ represents a transient episode that detours the climatic rainfall activity along the South Atlantic Convergent Zone (SACZ) to the subtropical plains (Brazilian Nordeste) in its southwestern (northeastern) flank. The appearance of a seesaw pattern in the rainfall and flux convergence anomalies along the southeastern portion of South America, which is spatially in

Hydrologic Responses to Land Use Change in the Loess Plateau: Case Study in the Upper Fenhe River Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhixiang Lu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We applied an integrated approach to investigate the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC changes on hydrology at different scales in the Loess Plateau of China. Hydrological modeling was conducted for the LULC maps from remote sensing images at two times in the Upper Fenhe River watershed using the SWAT model. The main LULC changes in this watershed from 1995 to 2010 were the transformation of farmland into forests, grassland, and built-up land. The simulation results showed that forested land contributed more than any other LULC class to water yield, but built-up land had most impact due to small initial loss and infiltration. At basin scale, a comparison of the simulated hydrological components of two LULC maps showed that there were slight increases in average annual potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and water yield, but soil water decreased, between the two intervals. In subbasins, obvious LULC changes did not have clear impacts on hydrology, and the impacts may be affected by precipitation conditions. By linking a hydrological model to remote sensing image analysis, our approach of quantifying the impacts of LULC changes on hydrology at different scales provide quantitative information for stakeholders in making decisions for land and water resource management.

Impact of climate change on the hydrology of High Mountain Asia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutz, A.

2016-01-01

In Asia, water resources largely depend on water generated in the mountainous upstream parts of several large river basins and hundreds of millions of people depend on their waters downstream. The large-scale impacts of climate change for the water resources in High Mountain Asia are poorly

The influence of large-scale climatic patterns on precipitation, temperature, and discharge in Czech river basins

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šípek, Václav

2013-01-01

Roč. 61, č. 4 (2013), s. 278-285 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : macro-scale climatic patterns * cidlina river * Blanice river * hydrometeorology Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.231, year: 2013 http://147.213.145.2/vc/vc1.asp

Landscape-scale tropical forest dynamics: Relating canopy traits and topographically derived hydrologic indices in a floodplain system using CAO-AToMS

Science.gov (United States)

Chadwick, K.; Asner, G. P.

2012-12-01

The geomorphology of floodplains in the humid tropics has been used to infer basic classifications of forest types. However, analysis of the landscape-scale topographic and hydrologic patterns underpinning spatial variation in forest composition and function remain elusive due to the sparse coverage of forest plots, coarse resolution remotely sensed data, and the challenges of collecting first order hydrologic data. Airborne remote measurements provide an opportunity to consider the relationship between high-resolution topographic and derived hydrologic environmental gradients, and forest canopy characteristics with important cascading effects on ecosystem function and biosphere-atmosphere interactions. In 2011, the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) Airborne Taxonomic Mapping System (AToMS) was used to map a large section of the Los Amigos Conservation Concession harboring largely intact lowland humid tropical forest in the southwestern Peruvian Amazon. The CAO Visible-Shortwave Imaging Spectrometer (VSWIR) collected 480-band high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy data of the forest canopy, while its high-resolution dual waveform LiDAR captured information on canopy structure and the underlying terrain. The data were used to quantify relationships between topographic and hydrologic gradients and forest functional traits. Results suggest strong local hydrogeomorphic control over vegetation spectral properties with known relationships to canopy functional traits, including pigment and nutrient concentrations and light capture, as well as canopy structural characteristics, including vegetation height, understory plant cover, and aboveground biomass. Data from CAO-AToMS reveals local-scale patterns in environmental conditions and ecological variation that meets or exceeds the variation previously reported across ecosystems of the Western Amazon Basin.

Spatial-Scale Characteristics of Precipitation Simulated by Regional Climate Models and the Implications for Hydrological Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, S.H.; Christensen, J. H.; Drews, Martin

2012-01-01

Precipitation simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) is generally biased with respect to observations, especially at the local scale of a few tens of kilometers. This study investigates how well two different RCMs are able to reproduce the spatial correlation patterns of observed summer...... length scales on the order of 130 km are found in both observed data and RCM simulations. When simulations and observations are aggregated to different grid sizes, the pattern correlation significantly decreases when the aggregation length is less than roughly 100 km. Furthermore, the intermodel standard......, reflecting larger predictive certainty of the RCMs at larger scales. The findings on aggregated grid scales are shown to be largely independent of the underlying RCMs grid resolutions but not of the overall size of RCM domain. With regard to hydrological modeling applications, these findings indicate...

A Web service-based architecture for real-time hydrologic sensor networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, B. P.; Zhao, Y.; Kerkez, B.

2014-12-01

Recent advances in web services and cloud computing provide new means by which to process and respond to real-time data. This is particularly true of platforms built for the Internet of Things (IoT). These enterprise-scale platforms have been designed to exploit the IP-connectivity of sensors and actuators, providing a robust means by which to route real-time data feeds and respond to events of interest. While powerful and scalable, these platforms have yet to be adopted by the hydrologic community, where the value of real-time data impacts both scientists and decision makers. We discuss the use of one such IoT platform for the purpose of large-scale hydrologic measurements, showing how rapid deployment and ease-of-use allows scientists to focus on their experiment rather than software development. The platform is hardware agnostic, requiring only IP-connectivity of field devices to capture, store, process, and visualize data in real-time. We demonstrate the benefits of real-time data through a real-world use case by showing how our architecture enables the remote control of sensor nodes, thereby permitting the nodes to adaptively change sampling strategies to capture major hydrologic events of interest.

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a Fully Distributed Model and High-resolution rainfall data

Science.gov (United States)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2017-04-01

Nowadays, there is a growing interest on small-scale rainfall information, provided by weather radars, to be used in urban water management and decision-making. Therefore, an increasing interest is in parallel devoted to the development of fully distributed and grid-based models following the increase of computation capabilities, the availability of high-resolution GIS information needed for such models implementation. However, the choice of an appropriate implementation scale to integrate the catchment heterogeneity and the whole measured rainfall variability provided by High-resolution radar technologies still issues. This work proposes a two steps investigation of scale effects in urban hydrology and its effects on modeling works. In the first step fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to describe the catchment heterogeneity, both the structure of the sewer network and the distribution of impervious areas are analyzed. Then an intensive multi-scale modeling work is carried out to understand scaling effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations were conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model was implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 m to 5 m and modeling investigations were performed using both rain gauge rainfall information as well as high resolution X band radar data in order to assess the sensitivity of the model to small scale rainfall variability. Results coming out from this work demonstrate scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modeling. In fact, fractal concept highlights the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to implement hydrological models. Patterns of geophysical data change when we change the observation pixel size. The multi-scale modeling investigation performed with Multi-Hydro model at 17 spatial resolutions confirms scaling effect on hydrological model

Understanding Greenland ice sheet hydrology using an integrated multi-scale approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rennermalm, A K; Moustafa, S E; Mioduszewski, J; Robinson, D A; Chu, V W; Smith, L C; Forster, R R; Hagedorn, B; Harper, J T; Mote, T L; Shuman, C A; Tedesco, M

2013-01-01

Improved understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology is critically important for assessing its impact on current and future ice sheet dynamics and global sea level rise. This has motivated the collection and integration of in situ observations, model development, and remote sensing efforts to quantify meltwater production, as well as its phase changes, transport, and export. Particularly urgent is a better understanding of albedo feedbacks leading to enhanced surface melt, potential positive feedbacks between ice sheet hydrology and dynamics, and meltwater retention in firn. These processes are not isolated, but must be understood as part of a continuum of processes within an integrated system. This letter describes a systems approach to the study of Greenland ice sheet hydrology, emphasizing component interconnections and feedbacks, and highlighting research and observational needs. (letter)

A refined regional modeling approach for the Corn Belt - Experiences and recommendations for large-scale integrated modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Gassman, Philip W.; Jha, Manoj K.; Kling, Catherine L.; Campbell, Todd; Srinivasan, Raghavan; White, Michael; Arnold, Jeffrey G.

2015-05-01

Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US. This region is comprised of two large river basins, the intensely row-cropped Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) and Ohio-Tennessee River Basin (OTRB), which are considered the key contributing areas for the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. Thus, in this area it is of utmost importance to ensure that intensive agriculture for food, feed and biofuel production can coexist with a healthy water environment. To address these objectives within a river basin management context, an integrated modeling system has been constructed with the hydrologic Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, capable of estimating river basin responses to alternative cropping and/or management strategies. To improve modeling performance compared to previous studies and provide a spatially detailed basis for scenario development, this SWAT Corn Belt application incorporates a greatly refined subwatershed structure based on 12-digit hydrologic units or 'subwatersheds' as defined by the US Geological Service. The model setup, calibration and validation are time-demanding and challenging tasks for these large systems, given the scale intensive data requirements, and the need to ensure the reliability of flow and pollutant load predictions at multiple locations. Thus, the objectives of this study are both to comprehensively describe this large-scale modeling approach, providing estimates of pollution and crop production in the region as well as to present strengths and weaknesses of integrated modeling at such a large scale along with how it can be improved on the basis of the current modeling structure and results. The predictions were based on a semi-automatic hydrologic calibration approach for large-scale and spatially detailed modeling studies, with the use of the Sequential

The influence of hydrology and waterway distance on population structure of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in a large river.

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, J B; Beacham, T D; Wetklo, M; Seeb, L W; Smith, C T; Flannery, B G; Wenburg, J K

2010-04-01

Adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha navigate in river systems using olfactory cues that may be influenced by hydrologic factors such as flow and the number, size and spatial distribution of tributaries. Thus, river hydrology may influence both homing success and the level of straying (gene flow), which in turn influences population structure. In this study, two methods of multivariate analysis were used to examine the extent to which four indicators of hydrology and waterway distance explained population structure of O. tshawytscha in the Yukon River. A partial Mantel test showed that the indicators of hydrology were positively associated with broad-scale (Yukon basin) population structure, when controlling for the influence of waterway distance. Multivariate multiple regression showed that waterway distance, supplemented with the number and flow of major drainage basins, explained more variation in broad-scale population structure than any single indicator. At an intermediate spatial scale, indicators of hydrology did not appear to influence population structure after accounting for waterway distance. These results suggest that habitat changes in the Yukon River, which alter hydrology, may influence the basin-wide pattern of population structure in O. tshawytscha. Further research is warranted on the role of hydrology in concert with waterway distance in influencing population structure in Pacific salmon.

56 Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of Lake Tana, Northwestern. Ethiopia. 1Amare ... and lake level data were evaluated to identify change in climate and lake level. The annual ... economic importance. The total area of ...

A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

OpenAIRE

Anghileri, D.; Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

2011-01-01

While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our ...

A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

2016-12-01

In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

2017-04-01

Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Controlled Drainage Using DRAINMOD

Science.gov (United States)

Saadat, S.; Bowling, L. C.; Frankenberger, J.

2017-12-01

Controlled drainage is a management strategy designed to mitigate water quality issues caused by subsurface drainage but it may increase surface ponding and runoff. To improve controlled drainage system management, a long-term and broader study is needed that goes beyond the experimental studies. Therefore, the goal of this study was to parametrize the DRAINMOD field-scale, hydrologic model for the Davis Purdue Agricultural Center located in Eastern Indiana and to predict the subsurface drain flow and surface runoff and ponding at this research site. The Green-Ampt equation was used to characterize the infiltration, and digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to estimate the maximum depressional storage as the surface ponding parameter inputs to DRAINMOD. Hydraulic conductivity was estimated using the Hooghoudt equation and the measured drain flow and water table depths. Other model inputs were either estimated or taken from the measurements. The DRAINMOD model was calibrated and validated by comparing model predictions of subsurface drainage and water table depths with field observations from 2012 to 2016. Simulations based on the DRAINMOD model can increase understanding of the environmental and hydrological effects over a broader temporal and spatial scale than is possible using field-scale data and this is useful for developing management recommendations for water resources at field and watershed scales.

Progressing the state of knowledge on the human influence on hydrological droughts through case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Bosman, Marianne; Wanders, Niko; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-04-01

Human activities can have a large influence on changes in the hydrological system and hydrological extremes, more than climate variability and climate change in some cases. However, there are currently only a limited number of studies which aim to quantify the human impact on hydrological droughts. Here we present a synthesis study of existing and new results that aims to summarize and quantify the anthropogenic impact on hydrological drought from case studies and observations. By combining a large number of case studies, we allow conclusions to be drawn about the effects of different human activities. This work suggests ways forward to increase our understanding on how human activities are influencing drought characteristics; invaluable information for water resource management and adaptation. During this project, the impact of different human activities (e.g. water abstraction, reservoir building, urbanisation, etc) on drought frequency, duration and deficit has been calculated in a consistent manner, allowing for an improved understanding to how they have impacted droughts. This consistent methodology is a necessary element for this comparative hydrology exercise, yet we use one which is flexible and applicable to different case study set ups and data availability. The methodology used here depends on available observation data, with three possible approaches: i) paired catchment approach; ii) upstream-downstream comparison; iii) observation modelling framework. The synthesised results of the existing and new case studies cover a number of human activities, hydro-climatic and socio-economic contexts. In particular, we remove the climate dependency in the results by using case studies from multiple climatic regions, including UK, Italy, US, Australia, Mexico and Chile. For groundwater abstraction, it is clear across all the relevant case studies that abstraction activities worsen drought events. This is especially prominent in the deficit volumes, with nearly all

Application of bivariate mapping for hydrological classification and analysis of temporal change and scale effects in Switzerland

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Speich, Matthias J.R.; Bernhard, Luzi; Teuling, Ryan; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-01-01

Hydrological classification schemes are important tools for assessing the impacts of a changing climate on the hydrology of a region. In this paper, we present bivariate mapping as a simple means of classifying hydrological data for a quantitative and qualitative assessment of temporal change.

Environmental Impacts of Large Scale Biochar Application Through Spatial Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Huber, I.; Archontoulis, S.

2017-12-01

In an effort to study the environmental (emissions, soil quality) and production (yield) impacts of biochar application at regional scales we coupled the APSIM-Biochar model with the pSIMS parallel platform. So far the majority of biochar research has been concentrated on lab to field studies to advance scientific knowledge. Regional scale assessments are highly needed to assist decision making. The overall objective of this simulation study was to identify areas in the USA that have the most gain environmentally from biochar's application, as well as areas which our model predicts a notable yield increase due to the addition of biochar. We present the modifications in both APSIM biochar and pSIMS components that were necessary to facilitate these large scale model runs across several regions in the United States at a resolution of 5 arcminutes. This study uses the AgMERRA global climate data set (1980-2010) and the Global Soil Dataset for Earth Systems modeling as a basis for creating its simulations, as well as local management operations for maize and soybean cropping systems and different biochar application rates. The regional scale simulation analysis is in progress. Preliminary results showed that the model predicts that high quality soils (particularly those common to Iowa cropping systems) do not receive much, if any, production benefit from biochar. However, soils with low soil organic matter ( 0.5%) do get a noteworthy yield increase of around 5-10% in the best cases. We also found N2O emissions to be spatial and temporal specific; increase in some areas and decrease in some other areas due to biochar application. In contrast, we found increases in soil organic carbon and plant available water in all soils (top 30 cm) due to biochar application. The magnitude of these increases (% change from the control) were larger in soil with low organic matter (below 1.5%) and smaller in soils with high organic matter (above 3%) and also dependent on biochar

Satellite based radar interferometry to estimate large-scale soil water depletion from clay shrinkage: possibilities and limitations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brake, te B.; Hanssen, R.F.; Ploeg, van der M.J.; Rooij, de G.H.

2013-01-01

Satellite-based radar interferometry is a technique capable of measuring small surface elevation changes at large scales and with a high resolution. In vadose zone hydrology, it has been recognized for a long time that surface elevation changes due to swell and shrinkage of clayey soils can serve as

Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. M. Firoz

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in central Vietnam and other regions of South-east Asia, severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB River basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB River basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity, and frequency were analysed for different timescales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method. Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. We found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the Vu Gia river supplying water to the city of Da Nang and large irrigation systems especially in the dry season. We conclude that the calibrated model set-up provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar

Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Firoz, A. B. M.; Nauditt, Alexandra; Fink, Manfred; Ribbe, Lars

2018-01-01

Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in central Vietnam and other regions of South-east Asia, severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB) River basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS)/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB River basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity, and frequency were analysed for different timescales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method. Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. We found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the Vu Gia river supplying water to the city of Da Nang and large irrigation systems especially in the dry season. We conclude that the calibrated model set-up provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar river basins.

Economic and fiscal impacts of large-scale development projects: implications for nuclear waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leistritz, F.L.; Murdock, S.H.; Texas A and M Univ., College Station)

1982-01-01

This paper deals with the local economic and fiscal implications of siting high-level nuclear waste repositories in rural areas. The economic and fiscal effects of repository development fall into two categories: (1) standard impacts similar to those that would be associated with developing any large-scale industrial facility in an isolated area; (2) special impacts that result from the hazardous nature of the nuclear materials stored and from federal ownership of the facility. Standard economic and fiscal impacts include employment effects (direct and secondary), local income changes, alterations in community price structures, effects on community services, and changes in revenues and costs for local jurisdictions. Special impacts include the possibility of diminished activity in other basic economic sectors, negative effects on the area's long-term growth prospects and a consequent dampening of investment in the local trade an service sectors, additional costs for local jurisdictions (e.g., for preparing evacuation plans), and limited local tax revenues resulting from the tax-exempt status of the facility. These special effects are difficult to quantify and require additional analysis. 47 references, 1 figure, 4 tables

Toward an operational tool to simulate green roof hydrological impact at the basin scale: a new version of the distributed rainfall-runoff model Multi-Hydro.

Science.gov (United States)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Gires, Auguste; Tchinguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2016-10-01

Currently widespread in new urban projects, green roofs have shown a positive impact on urban runoff at the building scale: decrease and slow-down of the peak discharge, and decrease of runoff volume. The present work aims to study their possible impact at the catchment scale, more compatible with stormwater management issues. For this purpose, a specific module dedicated to simulating the hydrological behaviour of a green roof has been developed in the distributed rainfall-runoff model (Multi-Hydro). It has been applied on a French urban catchment where most of the building roofs are flat and assumed to accept the implementation of a green roof. Catchment responses to several rainfall events covering a wide range of meteorological situations have been simulated. The simulation results show green roofs can significantly reduce runoff volume and the magnitude of peak discharge (up to 80%) depending on the rainfall event and initial saturation of the substrate. Additional tests have been made to assess the susceptibility of this response regarding both spatial distributions of green roofs and precipitation. It appears that the total area of greened roofs is more important than their locations. On the other hand, peak discharge reduction seems to be clearly dependent on spatial distribution of precipitation.

Watershed Scale Impacts of Stormwater Green Infrastructure on Hydrology, Nitrogen Fluxes, and Combined Sewer Overflows in the Baltimore, MD and Washington, DC area

Science.gov (United States)

Despite the increasing use of urban stormwater green infrastructure (SGI), including detention ponds and rain gardens, few studies have quantified the cumulative effects of multiple SGI projects on hydrology and water quality at the watershed scale. To assess the effects of SGI, ...

Multi-scale validation of a new soil freezing scheme for a land-surface model with physically-based hydrology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Gouttevin

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Soil freezing is a major feature of boreal regions with substantial impact on climate. The present paper describes the implementation of the thermal and hydrological effects of soil freezing in the land surface model ORCHIDEE, which includes a physical description of continental hydrology. The new soil freezing scheme is evaluated against analytical solutions and in-situ observations at a variety of scales in order to test its numerical robustness, explore its sensitivity to parameterization choices and confront its performance to field measurements at typical application scales.

Our soil freezing model exhibits a low sensitivity to the vertical discretization for spatial steps in the range of a few millimetres to a few centimetres. It is however sensitive to the temperature interval around the freezing point where phase change occurs, which should be 1 °C to 2 °C wide. Furthermore, linear and thermodynamical parameterizations of the liquid water content lead to similar results in terms of water redistribution within the soil and thermal evolution under freezing. Our approach does not allow firm discrimination of the performance of one approach over the other.

The new soil freezing scheme considerably improves the representation of runoff and river discharge in regions underlain by permafrost or subject to seasonal freezing. A thermodynamical parameterization of the liquid water content appears more appropriate for an integrated description of the hydrological processes at the scale of the vast Siberian basins. The use of a subgrid variability approach and the representation of wetlands could help capture the features of the Arctic hydrological regime with more accuracy.

The modeling of the soil thermal regime is generally improved by the representation of soil freezing processes. In particular, the dynamics of the active layer is captured with more accuracy, which is of crucial importance in the prospect of

Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Éric; Gailhard, Joël

2018-05-01

This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne.

Effects of land use on lake nutrients: The importance of scale, hydrologic connectivity, and region

Science.gov (United States)

Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Wagner, Tyler; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary Tate

2015-01-01

Catchment land uses, particularly agriculture and urban uses, have long been recognized as major drivers of nutrient concentrations in surface waters. However, few simple models have been developed that relate the amount of catchment land use to downstream freshwater nutrients. Nor are existing models applicable to large numbers of freshwaters across broad spatial extents such as regions or continents. This research aims to increase model performance by exploring three factors that affect the relationship between land use and downstream nutrients in freshwater: the spatial extent for measuring land use, hydrologic connectivity, and the regional differences in both the amount of nutrients and effects of land use on them. We quantified the effects of these three factors that relate land use to lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in 346 north temperate lakes in 7 regions in Michigan, USA. We used a linear mixed modeling framework to examine the importance of spatial extent, lake hydrologic class, and region on models with individual lake nutrients as the response variable, and individual land use types as the predictor variables. Our modeling approach was chosen to avoid problems of multi-collinearity among predictor variables and a lack of independence of lakes within regions, both of which are common problems in broad-scale analyses of freshwaters. We found that all three factors influence land use-lake nutrient relationships. The strongest evidence was for the effect of lake hydrologic connectivity, followed by region, and finally, the spatial extent of land use measurements. Incorporating these three factors into relatively simple models of land use effects on lake nutrients should help to improve predictions and understanding of land use-lake nutrient interactions at broad scales.

Impacts of Large Scale Wind Penetration on Energy Supply Industry

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John Kabouris

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Large penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES impacts Energy Supply Industry (ESI in many aspects leading to a fundamental change in electric power systems. It raises a number of technical challenges to the Transmission System Operators (TSOs, Distribution System Operators (DSOs and Wind Turbine Generators (WTG constructors. This paper aims to present in a thorough and coherent way the redrawn picture for Energy Systems under these conditions. Topics related to emergent technical challenges, technical solutions required and finally the impact on ESI due to large wind power penetration, are analyzed. Finally, general conclusions are extracted about the ESI current and future state and general directions are recommended.

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-01-01

Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

Spatial structure and scaling of macropores in hydrological process at small catchment scale

Science.gov (United States)

Silasari, Rasmiaditya; Broer, Martine; Blöschl, Günter

2013-04-01

During rainfall events, the formation of overland flow can occur under the circumstances of saturation excess and/or infiltration excess. These conditions are affected by the soil moisture state which represents the soil water content in micropores and macropores. Macropores act as pathway for the preferential flows and have been widely studied locally. However, very little is known about their spatial structure and conductivity of macropores and other flow characteristic at the catchment scale. This study will analyze these characteristics to better understand its importance in hydrological processes. The research will be conducted in Petzenkirchen Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL), a 64 ha catchment located 100 km west of Vienna. The land use is divided between arable land (87%), pasture (5%), forest (6%) and paved surfaces (2%). Video cameras will be installed on an agricultural field to monitor the overland flow pattern during rainfall events. A wireless soil moisture network is also installed within the monitored area. These field data will be combined to analyze the soil moisture state and the responding surface runoff occurrence. The variability of the macropores spatial structure of the observed area (field scale) then will be assessed based on the topography and soil data. Soil characteristics will be supported with laboratory experiments on soil matrix flow to obtain proper definitions of the spatial structure of macropores and its variability. A coupled physically based distributed model of surface and subsurface flow will be used to simulate the variability of macropores spatial structure and its effect on the flow behaviour. This model will be validated by simulating the observed rainfall events. Upscaling from field scale to catchment scale will be done to understand the effect of macropores variability on larger scales by applying spatial stochastic methods. The first phase in this study is the installation and monitoring configuration of video

The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop yields in IP

Science.gov (United States)

Capa Morocho, Mirian; Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz Ramos, Margarita

2014-05-01

Large-scale circulations patterns (ENSO, NAO) have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather, and therefore on crop yield over many parts of the world(Garnett and Khandekar, 1992; Aasa et al., 2004; Rozas and Garcia-Gonzalez, 2012). In this study, we analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns and regional climate on the principal components of maize yield variability in Iberian Peninsula (IP) using reanalysis datasets. Additionally, we investigate the modulation of these relationships by multidecadal patterns. This study is performed analyzing long time series of maize yield, only climate dependent, computed with the crop model CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5). To simulate yields, reanalysis daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. The reanalysis climate data were obtained from National Center for Environmental Prediction (20th Century and NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data server (ERA 40 and ERA Interim). Simulations were run at five locations: Lugo (northwestern), Lerida (NE), Madrid (central), Albacete (southeastern) and Córdoba (S IP) (Gabaldón et al., 2013). From these time series standardized anomalies were calculated. Afterwards, time series were time filtered to focus on the interannual-to-multiannual variability, splitting up in two components: low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) time scales. The principal components of HF yield anomalies in IP were compared with a set of documented patterns. These relationships were compared with multidecadal patterns, as Atlanctic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillations (IPO). The results of this study have important implications in crop forecasting. In this way, it may have a positive impact on both public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance

Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tolentino, Pamela Louise M.; Poortinga, Ate; Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

2016-01-01

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces

Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Flanner, M. G.; Lau, William K.; Ming, J.; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Mo; Warren, Stephen G.; Zhang, Rudong

2015-01-01

Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

a Stochastic Approach to Multiobjective Optimization of Large-Scale Water Reservoir Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Worman, A. L.

2013-12-01

A main challenge for the planning and management of water resources is the development of multiobjective strategies for operation of large-scale water reservoir networks. The optimal sequence of water releases from multiple reservoirs depends on the stochastic variability of correlated hydrologic inflows and on various processes that affect water demand and energy prices. Although several methods have been suggested, large-scale optimization problems arising in water resources management are still plagued by the high dimensional state space and by the stochastic nature of the hydrologic inflows. In this work, the optimization of reservoir operation is approached using approximate dynamic programming (ADP) with policy iteration and function approximators. The method is based on an off-line learning process in which operating policies are evaluated for a number of stochastic inflow scenarios, and the resulting value functions are used to design new, improved policies until convergence is attained. A case study is presented of a multi-reservoir system in the Dalälven River, Sweden, which includes 13 interconnected reservoirs and 36 power stations. Depending on the late spring and summer peak discharges, the lowlands adjacent to Dalälven can often be flooded during the summer period, and the presence of stagnating floodwater during the hottest months of the year is the cause of a large proliferation of mosquitos, which is a major problem for the people living in the surroundings. Chemical pesticides are currently being used as a preventive countermeasure, which do not provide an effective solution to the problem and have adverse environmental impacts. In this study, ADP was used to analyze the feasibility of alternative operating policies for reducing the flood risk at a reasonable economic cost for the hydropower companies. To this end, mid-term operating policies were derived by combining flood risk reduction with hydropower production objectives. The performance

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments

The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Laaha

2017-06-01

(magnitude. These results emphasize that drought is a hazard which leaves different footprints on the various components of the water cycle at different spatial and temporal scales. The difference in the dynamic development of meteorological and hydrological drought also implies that impacts on various water-use sectors and river ecology cannot be informed by climate indices alone. Thus, an assessment of drought impacts on water resources requires hydrological data in addition to drought indices based solely on climate data. The transboundary scale of the event also suggests that additional efforts need to be undertaken to make timely pan-European hydrological assessments more operational in the future.

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change in the Central Appalachian Mountains, U.S.: A Multi-Scale Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Eshleman, K. N.; Negley, T. L.; Townsend, P. A.

2003-12-01

Quantifying, understanding, and predicting the hydrological impacts of land use changes and land management practices are important objectives of both the academic hydrologist and the civil engineer. Relationships between stormflow response and land use have been most readily observed at small spatial scales (e.g., hillslopes, small experimental watersheds), but have proved difficult to establish in larger basins where (1) high-resolution precipitation data are usually unavailable, (2) land use patterns are often exceedingly complex, and (3) land use changes are essentially uncontrolled. In the Central Appalachian Mountains of the U.S., conversion of forests to mined lands (through devegetation, excavation of overburden and coal deposits, and subsequent reclamation) is the dominant land use change presently occurring. In the Georges Creek basin in western Maryland, for example, the portion of the watershed classified as mined (including active, reclaimed, and abandoned surface mines) increased from 3.8 to 15.5% from 1962 to 1997; modest urbanization of the basin (2.4 to 4.7%) also occurred during this period. In 1999, we initiated a comparative field study to determine if surface coal-mining and subsequent land reclamation practices affect stormflow responses at multiple spatial scales: (1) plot, (2) small watershed, and (3) river basin scales. Results from the plot-scale experiments suggested that soil infiltration capacity is grossly reduced during mining and reclamation, apparently due to loss of forest litter and soil compaction by heavy machinery. At the small watershed (<25 ha) scale, a comparative analysis of a pair of gaged watersheds indicated that conventional methods of surface mining and reclamation can increase peak stormflow, total storm runoff, and storm runoff coefficient by about 250% relative to similar forested watersheds in the same region. Finally, frequency analysis of long-term runoff data from the larger, extensively-mined Georges Creek

Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

2008-01-01

Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

Analysis of hydrological response to land use changes based on Low Impact Development—a case study on the southern area of Fangshan National Geopark in Nanjing city, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Fu, D., Sr.

2016-12-01

The hydrological response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LUCC) is the most active field in the international hydrological science research, and it is also a particular concern in the process of Chinese urban construction and renewal, many studies have shown that large-scale land use change is an important factor leading to the regional climate and hydrological cycle changes. Therefore, International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and International Programme of Biodiversity Science (DIVERSITAS) program take land use change as one core program. The change of regional vegetation ecosystem caused by land use change, in turn, has a very significant impact on the regional hydrological cycle. Currently the influence of hydrological processes attributed correlated with land-use type were not fully considered in urban LUCC, the hydrological effect on urban-scale LUCC has just started. Since 2015, Chinese government began to implement "Sponge City" construction, however, the sponge city construction often takes the water resources management as the target, and mainly focuses on the rational allocation of urban water resources in conjunction with ignoring the response of LUCC on the water system. The hydrological response on LUCC need to use the scenario design method to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of the hydrological change on LUCC. According to the control rate of the runoff volume and land information, the coverage rate of sponge facilities determined before planning, such as bioretention, permeable pavement and greening roof, are adjusted and then are checked on the basis of storage volume, the coverage rate of the sponge facilities that can accommodate the total runoff volume are put forward. This research addresses the hydrological response changes on the land use before and after the use of LID using the scenario design method

High-resolution downscaling for hydrological management

Science.gov (United States)

Ulbrich, Uwe; Rust, Henning; Meredith, Edmund; Kpogo-Nuwoklo, Komlan; Vagenas, Christos

2017-04-01

Hydrological modellers and water managers require high-resolution climate data to model regional hydrologies and how these may respond to future changes in the large-scale climate. The ability to successfully model such changes and, by extension, critical infrastructure planning is often impeded by a lack of suitable climate data. This typically takes the form of too-coarse data from climate models, which are not sufficiently detailed in either space or time to be able to support water management decisions and hydrological research. BINGO (Bringing INnovation in onGOing water management; ) aims to bridge the gap between the needs of hydrological modellers and planners, and the currently available range of climate data, with the overarching aim of providing adaptation strategies for climate change-related challenges. Producing the kilometre- and sub-daily-scale climate data needed by hydrologists through continuous simulations is generally computationally infeasible. To circumvent this hurdle, we adopt a two-pronged approach involving (1) selective dynamical downscaling and (2) conditional stochastic weather generators, with the former presented here. We take an event-based approach to downscaling in order to achieve the kilometre-scale input needed by hydrological modellers. Computational expenses are minimized by identifying extremal weather patterns for each BINGO research site in lower-resolution simulations and then only downscaling to the kilometre-scale (convection permitting) those events during which such patterns occur. Here we (1) outline the methodology behind the selection of the events, and (2) compare the modelled precipitation distribution and variability (preconditioned on the extremal weather patterns) with that found in observations.

Influences of Coupled Hydrologic and Microbial Processes on River Corridor Biogeochemistry and Ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibe, T. D.; Song, H. S.; Stegen, J.; Graham, E.; Bao, J.; Goldman, A.; Zhou, T.; Crump, A.; Hou, Z.; Hammond, G. E.; Chen, X.; Huang, M.; Zhang, X.; Nelson, W. C.; Garayburu-Caruso, V. A.

2017-12-01

The exchange of water between rivers and surrounding subsurface environments (hydrologic exchange flows or HEFs) is a vital aspect of river ecology and watershed function. HEFs play a key role in water quality, nutrient cycling, and ecosystem health, and they modulate water temperatures and enhance exchange of terrestrial and aquatic nutrients, which lead to elevated biogeochemical activity. However, these coupled hydrologic and microbiological processes are not well understood, particularly in the context of large managed river systems with highly variable discharge, and are poorly represented in system-scale quantitative models. Using the 75 km Hanford Reach of the Columbia River as the research domain, we apply high-resolution flow simulations supported by field observations to understand how variable river discharge interacts with hydromorphic and hydrogeologic structures to generate HEFs and distributions of subsurface residence times. We combine this understanding of hydrologic processes with microbiological activity measurements and reactive transport models to elucidate the holistic impacts of variable discharge on river corridor (surface and subsurface) ecosystems. In particular, our project seeks to develop and test new conceptual and numerical models that explicitly incorporate i) the character (chemical speciation and thermodynamics) of natural organic matter as it varies along flow paths and through mixing of groundwater and surface water, and ii) the history-dependent response of microbial communities to varying time scales of inundation associated with fluctuations in river discharge. The results of these high-resolution mechanistic models are guiding formulation and parameterization of reduced-order models applicable at reach to watershed scales. New understanding of coupled hydrology and microbiology in the river corridor will play a key role in reduction of uncertainties associated with major Earth system biogeochemical fluxes, improving

Bottom-Up Accountability Initiatives and Large-Scale Land ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Corey Piccioni

fuel/energy, climate, and finance has occurred and one of the most ... this wave of large-scale land acquisitions. In fact, esti- ... Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth,. Nigeria ... map the differentiated impacts (gender, ethnicity,.

Quantifying the Relative Contributions of Forest Change and Climatic Variability to Hydrology in Large Watersheds: A Critical Review of Research Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaohua Wei

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Forest change and climatic variability are two major drivers for influencing change in watershed hydrology in forest–dominated watersheds. Quantifying their relative contributions is important to fully understand their individual effects. This review paper summarizes the progress on quantifying the relative contributions of forest or land cover change and climatic variability to hydrology in large watersheds using available case studies. It compared pros and cons of various research methods, identified research challenges and proposed future research priorities. Our synthesis shows that the relative hydrological effects of forest changes and climatic variability are largely dependent on their own change magnitudes and watershed characteristics. In some severely disturbed watersheds, impacts of forest changes or land use changes can be as important as those from climatic variability. This paper provides a brief review on eight selected research methods for this type of research. Because each method or technique has its own strengths and weaknesses, combining two or more methods is a more robust approach than using any single method alone. Future research priorities include conducting more case studies, refining research methods, and considering mechanism-based research using landscape ecology and geochemistry approaches.

Large scale spatially explicit modeling of blue and green water dynamics in a temperate mid-latitude basin

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Liuying; Rajib, Adnan; Merwade, Venkatesh

2018-07-01

Looking only at climate change impacts provides partial information about a changing hydrologic regime. Understanding the spatio-temporal nature of change in hydrologic processes, and the explicit contributions from both climate and land use drivers, holds more practical value for water resources management and policy intervention. This study presents a comprehensive assessment on the spatio-temporal trend of Blue Water (BW) and Green Water (GW) in a 490,000 km2 temperate mid-latitude basin (Ohio River Basin) over the past 80 years (1935-2014), and from thereon, quantifies the combined as well as relative contributions of climate and land use changes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is adopted to simulate hydrologic fluxes. Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen statistical tests are performed on the modeled outputs to detect respectively the trend and magnitude of changes at three different spatial scales - the entire basin, regional level, and sub-basin level. Despite the overall volumetric increase of both BW and GW in the entire basin, changes in their annual average values during the period of simulation reveal a distinctive spatial pattern. GW has increased significantly in the upper and lower parts of the basin, which can be related to the prominent land use change in those areas. BW has increased significantly only in the lower part, likely being associated with the notable precipitation change there. Furthermore, the simulation under a time-varying climate but constant land use scenario identifies climate change in the Ohio River Basin to be influential on BW, while the impact is relatively nominal on GW; whereas, land use change increases GW remarkably, but is counterproductive on BW. The approach to quantify combined/relative effects of climate and land use change as shown in this study can be replicated to understand BW-GW dynamics in similar large basins around the globe.

Analyzing the hydrological impact of afforestation and tree species in two catchments with contrasting soil properties using the spatially distributed model MIKE SHE SWET

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sonnenborg, Torben Obel; Christiansen, Jesper Riis; Pang, Bo

2017-01-01

afforestation or forest conversion impacts the water resource at the catchment scale. We hypothesize that the groundwater formation and streamflow is increased when water consuming conifers are replaced with the less consumptive broadleaf tree species. To test this a distributed hydrological model...

High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

2013-04-01

Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

Cloud-enabled large-scale land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, D.; Vaughan, G.; Clark, M. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Nijssen, B.; Nearing, G. S.; Rheingrover, S.; Kumar, S.; Geiger, J. V.

2017-12-01

Developed by the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Land Information System (LIS) is a high-performance software framework for terrestrial hydrology modeling and data assimilation. LIS provides the ability to integrate satellite and ground-based observational products and advanced modeling algorithms to extract land surface states and fluxes. Through a partnership with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Washington, the LIS model is currently being extended to include the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA). With the addition of SUMMA in LIS, meaningful simulations containing a large multi-model ensemble will be enabled and can provide advanced probabilistic continental-domain modeling capabilities at spatial scales relevant for water managers. The resulting LIS/SUMMA application framework is difficult for non-experts to install due to the large amount of dependencies on specific versions of operating systems, libraries, and compilers. This has created a significant barrier to entry for domain scientists that are interested in using the software on their own systems or in the cloud. In addition, the requirement to support multiple run time environments across the LIS community has created a significant burden on the NASA team. To overcome these challenges, LIS/SUMMA has been deployed using Linux containers, which allows for an entire software package along with all dependences to be installed within a working runtime environment, and Kubernetes, which orchestrates the deployment of a cluster of containers. Within a cloud environment, users can now easily create a cluster of virtual machines and run large-scale LIS/SUMMA simulations. Installations that have taken weeks and months can now be performed in minutes of time. This presentation will discuss the steps required to create a cloud-enabled large-scale simulation, present examples of its use, and

Understanding hydrologic budgets, dynamics in an arid basin and explore spatial scaling properties using Process-based Adaptive Watershed Simulator (PAWS)

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, K.; Shen, C.; Salve, R.

2013-12-01

The Southern California hot desert hosts a fragile ecosystem as well as a range of human economic activities, primarily mining, energy production and recreation. This inland arid landscape is characterized by occasional intensive precipitation events and year-round strong potential evapotranspiration. In this landscape, water and especially groundwater is vital for ecosystem functions and human use. However, the impact of recent development on the sustainability of groundwater resources in the area has not been thoroughly investigated. We apply an integrated, physically-based hydrologic-land surface model, the Process-based Adaptive Watershed Simulator + Community Land Model (PAWS+CLM) to evaluate the sustainability of the groundwater resources in the area. We elucidate the spatio-temporal patterns of hydrologic fluxes and budgets. The modeling results indicate that mountain front recharge is the essential recharging mechanism for the alluvial aquifer. Although pumping activities do not exceed annual-average recharge values, they are still expected to contribute significantly to groundwater drawdown in business-as-usual scenario. The impact of groundwater withdrawals is significant on the desert ecosystem. The relative importance of groundwater flow on NPP rises significantly as compared to other ecosystems. We further evaluate the fractal scaling properties of soil moisture in this very arid system and found the relationship to be much more static in time than that found in a humid continental climate system. The scaling exponents can be predicted using simple functions of the mean. Therefore, multi-scale model based on coarse-resolution surrogate model is expected to perform well in this system. The modeling result is also important for assessing the groundwater sustainability and impact of human activities in the desert environment.

The Scale Effects of Engineered Inlets in Urban Hydrologic Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Shevade, L.; Montalto, F. A.

2017-12-01

Runoff from urban surfaces is typically captured by engineered inlets for conveyance to receiving water bodies or treatment plants. Normative hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling tools generally assume 100% efficient inlets, though observations by the authors suggest this assumption is invalid. The discrepancy is key since the more efficiently the inlet, the more linearly hydrologic processes scale with catchment area. Using several years of remote sensing, the observed efficiencies of urban green infrastructure (GI) facility inlets in New York City are presented, as a function of the morphological and climatological properties of their catchments and events. The rainfall-runoff response is modeled with EPA to assess the degree of inaccuracy that the assumption of efficient inlets introduces in block and neighborhood-scale simulations. Next, an algorithm is presented that incorporates inlet efficiency into SWMM and the improved predictive skill evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results are used to evaluate the extent to which decentralized green stormwater management facilities positioned at the low points of urban catchments ought to be designed with larger capacities than their counterparts located further upslope.

Variational assimilation of streamflow into operational distributed hydrologic models: effect of spatiotemporal adjustment scale

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, H.; Seo, D.-J.; Liu, Y.; Koren, V.; McKee, P.; Corby, R.

2012-01-01

State updating of distributed rainfall-runoff models via streamflow assimilation is subject to overfitting because large dimensionality of the state space of the model may render the assimilation problem seriously under-determined. To examine the issue in the context of operational hydrology, we carry out a set of real-world experiments in which streamflow data is assimilated into gridded Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) and kinematic-wave routing models of the US National Weather Service (NWS) Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) with the variational data assimilation technique. Study basins include four basins in Oklahoma and five basins in Texas. To assess the sensitivity of data assimilation performance to dimensionality reduction in the control vector, we used nine different spatiotemporal adjustment scales, where state variables are adjusted in a lumped, semi-distributed, or distributed fashion and biases in precipitation and potential evaporation (PE) are adjusted hourly, 6-hourly, or kept time-invariant. For each adjustment scale, three different streamflow assimilation scenarios are explored, where streamflow observations at basin interior points, at the basin outlet, or at both interior points and the outlet are assimilated. The streamflow assimilation experiments with nine different basins show that the optimum spatiotemporal adjustment scale varies from one basin to another and may be different for streamflow analysis and prediction in all of the three streamflow assimilation scenarios. The most preferred adjustment scale for seven out of nine basins is found to be the distributed, hourly scale, despite the fact that several independent validation results at this adjustment scale indicated the occurrence of overfitting. Basins with highly correlated interior and outlet flows tend to be less sensitive to the adjustment scale and could benefit more from streamflow assimilation. In comparison to outlet flow assimilation, interior flow

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

2018-03-01

from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.

Development and testing of watershed-scale models for poorly drained soils

Science.gov (United States)

Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

2005-01-01

Watershed-scale hydrology and water quality models were used to evaluate the crrmulative impacts of land use and management practices on dowrzstream hydrology and nitrogen loading of poorly drained watersheds. Field-scale hydrology and nutrient dyyrutmics are predicted by DRAINMOD in both models. In the first model (DRAINMOD-DUFLOW), field-scale predictions are coupled...

Hydrologic test plans for large-scale, multiple-well tests in support of site characterization at Hanford, Washington

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, P.M.; Stone, R.; Lu, A.H.

1985-01-01

The Basalt Waste Isolation Project is preparing plans for tests and has begun work on some tests that will provide the data necessary for the hydrogeologic characterization of a site located on a United States government reservation at Hanford, Washington. This site is being considered for the Nation's first geologic repository of high level nuclear waste. Hydrogeologic characterization of this site requires several lines of investigation which include: surface-based small-scale tests, testing performed at depth from an exploratory shaft, geochemistry investigations, regional studies, and site-specific investigations using large-scale, multiple-well hydraulic tests. The large-scale multiple-well tests are planned for several locations in and around the site. These tests are being designed to provide estimates of hydraulic parameter values of the geologic media, chemical properties of the groundwater, and hydrogeologic boundary conditions at a scale appropriate for evaluating repository performance with respect to potential radionuclide transport

Application of Hierarchy Theory to Cross-Scale Hydrologic Modeling of Nutrient Loads

Science.gov (United States)

We describe a model called Regional Hydrologic Modeling for Environmental Evaluation 16 (RHyME2) for quantifying annual nutrient loads in stream networks and watersheds. RHyME2 is 17 a cross-scale statistical and process-based water-quality model. The model ...

Homogenization of Large-Scale Movement Models in Ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Garlick, M.J.; Powell, J.A.; Hooten, M.B.; McFarlane, L.R.

2011-01-01

A difficulty in using diffusion models to predict large scale animal population dispersal is that individuals move differently based on local information (as opposed to gradients) in differing habitat types. This can be accommodated by using ecological diffusion. However, real environments are often spatially complex, limiting application of a direct approach. Homogenization for partial differential equations has long been applied to Fickian diffusion (in which average individual movement is organized along gradients of habitat and population density). We derive a homogenization procedure for ecological diffusion and apply it to a simple model for chronic wasting disease in mule deer. Homogenization allows us to determine the impact of small scale (10-100 m) habitat variability on large scale (10-100 km) movement. The procedure generates asymptotic equations for solutions on the large scale with parameters defined by small-scale variation. The simplicity of this homogenization procedure is striking when compared to the multi-dimensional homogenization procedure for Fickian diffusion,and the method will be equally straightforward for more complex models. ?? 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

Large-Scale Systems Control Design via LMI Optimization

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Rehák, Branislav

2015-01-01

Roč. 44, č. 3 (2015), s. 247-253 ISSN 1392-124X Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Combinatorial linear matrix inequalities * large-scale system * decentralized control Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 0.633, year: 2015

Identifying influential data points in hydrological model calibration and their impact on streamflow predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, David; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth

2015-04-01

Highly influential data points are those that have a disproportionately large impact on model performance, parameters and predictions. However, in current hydrological modelling practice the relative influence of individual data points on hydrological model calibration is not commonly evaluated. This presentation illustrates and evaluates several influence diagnostics tools that hydrological modellers can use to assess the relative influence of data. The feasibility and importance of including influence detection diagnostics as a standard tool in hydrological model calibration is discussed. Two classes of influence diagnostics are evaluated: (1) computationally demanding numerical "case deletion" diagnostics; and (2) computationally efficient analytical diagnostics, based on Cook's distance. These diagnostics are compared against hydrologically orientated diagnostics that describe changes in the model parameters (measured through the Mahalanobis distance), performance (objective function displacement) and predictions (mean and maximum streamflow). These influence diagnostics are applied to two case studies: a stage/discharge rating curve model, and a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (GR4J). Removing a single data point from the calibration resulted in differences to mean flow predictions of up to 6% for the rating curve model, and differences to mean and maximum flow predictions of up to 10% and 17%, respectively, for the hydrological model. When using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in calibration, the computationally cheaper Cook's distance metrics produce similar results to the case-deletion metrics at a fraction of the computational cost. However, Cooks distance is adapted from linear regression with inherit assumptions on the data and is therefore less flexible than case deletion. Influential point detection diagnostics show great potential to improve current hydrological modelling practices by identifying highly influential data points. The findings of this

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosmans, J.H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.; Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2017-01-01

Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or

Failure Impact Assessment for Large-Scale Landslides Located Near Human Settlement: Case Study in Southern Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Chien Chung

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused over 680 deaths and more than 20,000 landslides in Taiwan. From 2010 to 2015, the Central Geological Survey of the Ministry of Economic Affairs identified 1047 potential large-scale landslides in Taiwan, of which 103 may have affected human settlements. This paper presents an analytical procedure that can be applied to assess the possible impact of a landslide collapse on nearby settlements. In this paper, existing technologies, including interpretation of remote sensing images, hydrogeological investigation, and numerical analysis, are integrated to evaluate potential failure scenarios and the landslide scale of a specific case: the Xinzhuang landslide. GeoStudio and RAMMS analysis modes and hazard classification produced the following results: (1 evaluation of the failure mechanisms and the influence zones of large-scale landslides; (2 assessment of the migration and accumulation of the landslide mass after failure; and (3 a landslide hazard and evacuation map. The results of the case study show that this analytical procedure can quantitatively estimate potential threats to human settlements. Furthermore, it can be applied to other villages and used as a reference in disaster prevention and evacuation planning.

ENSO impact on hydrology in Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Lavado-Casimiro, W. S.; Felipe, O.; Silvestre, E.; Bourrel, L.

2013-04-01

The El Niño and La Niña impacts on the hydrology of Peru were assessed based on discharge data (1968-2006) of 20 river catchments distributed over three drainage regions in Peru: 14 in the Pacific Coast (PC), 3 in the Lake Titicaca (TL) region, and 3 in the Amazonas (AM). To classify the El Niño and La Niña events, we used the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) based on hydrological years (September to August). Using the SOI values, the events were re-classified as strong El Niño (SEN), moderate El Niño (MEN), normal years (N), moderate La Niña (MLN) and strong La Niña (SLN). On average during the SEN years, sharp increases occurred in the discharges in the north central area of the PC and decreases in the remaining discharge stations that were analyzed, while in the years of MEN events, these changes show different responses than those of the SEN. During the years classified as La Niña, positive changes are mostly observed in the majority of the stations in the rivers located in the center of Peru's Pacific Coast. Another important result of this work is that the Ilave River (south of the Titicaca watershed) shows higher positive (negative) impacts during La Niña (El Niño) years, a fact that is not clearly seen in the rivers of the northern part of the Titicaca watershed (Ramis and Huancane rivers).

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna; Bajracharya, Sagar Ratna; Shrestha, Arun Bhakta; Maharjan, Sudan Bikash

2018-06-01

The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is an important global freshwater resource. The hydrological regime of the region is vulnerable to climatic variations, especially precipitation and temperature. In our study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the snow dominated Kaligandaki Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. It is predicted to be a rise in the average annual temperature of over 4°C, and an increase in the average annual precipitation of over 26% by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the basin's water balance and hydrological regime. In particular, a 50% increase in discharge is expected at the outlet of the basin. Snowmelt contribution will largely be affected by climate change, and it is projected to increase by 90% by 2090.Water availability in the basin is not likely to decrease during the 21st century. The study demonstrates that the important water balance components of snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and water yield at higher elevations in the upper and middle sub-basins of the Kaligandaki Basin will be most affected by the increasing temperatures and precipitation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large-scale solar purchasing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

The principal objective of the project was to participate in the definition of a new IEA task concerning solar procurement (''the Task'') and to assess whether involvement in the task would be in the interest of the UK active solar heating industry. The project also aimed to assess the importance of large scale solar purchasing to UK active solar heating market development and to evaluate the level of interest in large scale solar purchasing amongst potential large scale purchasers (in particular housing associations and housing developers). A further aim of the project was to consider means of stimulating large scale active solar heating purchasing activity within the UK. (author)

Environmental impacts of a large-scale incinerator with mixed MSW of high water content from a LCA perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Lou, Ziyang; Bilitewski, Bernd; Zhu, Nanwen; Chai, Xiaoli; Li, Bing; Zhao, Youcai

2015-04-01

Large-scale incinerators are applied widely as a result of the heavy burden of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated, while strong opposition is arising from the public living nearby. A large-scale working incineration plant of 1500 ton/day was chosen for evaluation using life cycle assessment. It was found that the corresponding human toxicity impacts via soil (HTs), human toxicity impacts via water (HTw) and human toxicity impacts via air (HTa) categories are 0.213, 2.171, and 0.012 personal equivalents (PE), and global warming (GW100) and nutrient enrichment (NE) impacts are 0.002 and 0.001 PE per ton of waste burned for this plant. Heavy metals in flue gas, such as Hg and Pb, are the two dominant contributors to the toxicity impact categories, and energy recovery could reduce the GW100 and NE greatly. The corresponding HTs, HTw and HTa decrease to 0.087, 0.911 and 0.008 PE, and GW100 turns into savings of -0.007 PE due to the increase of the heating value from 3935 to 5811 kJ/kg, if a trommel screener of 40 mm mesh size is used to pre-separate MSW. MSW sorting and the reduction of water content by physical pressure might be two promising pre-treatment methods to improve the combustion performance, and the application of stricter standards for leachate discharge and the flue gas purification process are two critical factors for improvement of the environmental profile identified in this work. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Large-scale fluctuations in the cosmic ionizing background: the impact of beamed source emission

Science.gov (United States)

Suarez, Teresita; Pontzen, Andrew

2017-12-01

When modelling the ionization of gas in the intergalactic medium after reionization, it is standard practice to assume a uniform radiation background. This assumption is not always appropriate; models with radiative transfer show that large-scale ionization rate fluctuations can have an observable impact on statistics of the Lyman α forest. We extend such calculations to include beaming of sources, which has previously been neglected but which is expected to be important if quasars dominate the ionizing photon budget. Beaming has two effects: first, the physical number density of ionizing sources is enhanced relative to that directly observed; and secondly, the radiative transfer itself is altered. We calculate both effects in a hard-edged beaming model where each source has a random orientation, using an equilibrium Boltzmann hierarchy in terms of spherical harmonics. By studying the statistical properties of the resulting ionization rate and H I density fields at redshift z ∼ 2.3, we find that the two effects partially cancel each other; combined, they constitute a maximum 5 per cent correction to the power spectrum P_{H I}(k) at k = 0.04 h Mpc-1. On very large scales (k effects of beaming should be considered when interpreting future observational data sets.

CORDEX - a treasure trove of open climate data for hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

O'Rourke, Eleanor; Nikulin, Grigory; Kjellström, Erik

2015-04-01

The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was initiated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to coordinate high-resolution Regional Climate Modelling and provide a set of regional climate projections for the majority of global land regions. Additionally making this data available, and importantly useable, to impact and adaptation communities was a fundamental goal. Phase I of CORDEX, which came to a close in November 2013, was successful in developing a framework in which scientists around the world adopted a common protocol to guide the development of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) and empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) projections, and the intercomparison of these projections, on each continent, with a particular focus on the African region. As a result of these intensive activities by groups across the globe more than 47000 quality checked open datasets are now freely available to users through the searchable Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The integration of this data into large scale hydrological modelling is in action within the Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute (SMHI) exemplifying the great potential use of this resource to the hydrological community. The aim of CORDEX Phase II is to enhance the dialogue with end-users so as to meet the growing demand for tailored regional climate information. Here, greater interaction between the CORDEX and hydrological modelling community can only prove hugely beneficial leading to greater protection for those vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate.

Assessing wetland loss impacts on watershed hydrology using an improved modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Despite the importance of wetland impacts on water cycling, the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) has experienced significant wetland losses. The resultant environmental degradation has not been fully characterized. Our aim is to assess wetland loss impacts on watershed hydrology for an agricultural wa...

Novel material and structural design for large-scale marine protective devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu, Ang; Lin, Wei; Ma, Yong; Zhao, Chengbi; Tang, Youhong

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Large-scale protective devices with different structural designs have been optimized. • Large-scale protective devices with novel material designs have been optimized. • Protective devices constructed of sandwich panels have the best anti-collision performance. • Protective devices with novel material design can reduce weight and construction cost. - Abstract: Large-scale protective devices must endure the impact of severe forces, large structural deformation, the increased stress and strain rate effects, and multiple coupling effects. In evaluation of the safety of conceptual design through simulation, several key parameters considered in this research are maximum impact force, energy dissipated by the impactor (e.g. a ship) and energy absorbed by the device and the impactor stroke. During impact, the main function of the ring beam structure is to resist and buffer the impact force between ship and bridge pile caps, which could guarantee that the magnitude of impact force meets the corresponding requirements. The means of improving anti-collision performance can be to increase the strength of the beam section or to exchange the steel material with novel fiber reinforced polymer laminates. The main function of the buoyancy tank is to absorb and transfer the ship’s kinetic energy through large plastic deformation, damage, or friction occurring within itself. The energy absorption effect can be improved by structure optimization or by the use of new sandwich panels. Structural and material optimization schemes are proposed on the basis of conceptual design in this research, and protective devices constructed of sandwich panels prove to have the best anti-collision performance

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

measured floods with a correlation coefficient that ranges from 0.8 for low return periods to 0.65 for the highest. It is shown that model performance is robust and independent of catchment features such as area and mean annual rainfall. The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models, supported by the increasing availability of global weather, climate and hydrological products, could be used to develop robust methods to help engineers estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

Science.gov (United States)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

A Review of the Integrated Effects of Changing Climate, Land Use, and Dams on Mekong River Hydrology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yadu Pokhrel

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The ongoing and proposed construction of large-scale hydropower dams in the Mekong river basin is a subject of intense debate and growing international concern due to the unprecedented and potentially irreversible impacts these dams are likely to have on the hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the basin. Studies have shown that some of the dams built in the tributaries and the main stem of the upper Mekong have already caused basin-wide impacts by altering the magnitude and seasonality of flows, blocking sediment transport, affecting fisheries and livelihoods of downstream inhabitants, and changing the flood pulse to the Tonle Sap Lake. There are hundreds of additional dams planned for the near future that would result in further changes, potentially causing permanent damage to the highly productive agricultural systems and fisheries, as well as the riverine and floodplain ecosystems. Several studies have examined the potential impacts of existing and planned dams but the integrated effects of the dams when combined with the adverse hydrologic consequences of climate change remain largely unknown. Here, we provide a detailed review of the existing literature on the changes in climate, land use, and dam construction and the resulting impacts on hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the Mekong. The review provides a basis to better understand the effects of climate change and accelerating human water management activities on the coupled hydrological-agricultural-ecological systems, and identifies existing challenges to study the region’s Water, Energy, and Food (WEF nexus with emphasis on the influence of future dams and projected climate change. In the last section, we synthesize the results and highlight the urgent need to develop integrated models to holistically study the coupled natural-human systems across the basin that account for the impacts of climate change and water infrastructure development

Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by ... is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order ... predictand relationships are often very complex. .... constraints to solve the optimization problem. ..... social, and environmental sustainability.

Scaling Hydrologic Processes in Boreal Forest Stands: New Eco-hydrological Perspectives or Deja vu?

Science.gov (United States)

Silins, U.; Lieffers, V. J.; Landhausser, S. M.; Mendoza, C. A.; Devito, K. J.; Petrone, R. M.; Gan, T. Y.

2006-12-01

The leaf area of forest canopies is both main attribute of stands controlling water balance through transpiration and interception, and "engine" driving stand growth, stand dynamics, and forest succession. While transpiration and interception dynamics are classic themes in forest hydrology, we present results from our eco-hydrological research on boreal trees to highlight how more recent eco-physiological insights into species specific controls over water use and leaf area such as hydraulic architecture, cavitation, sapwood-leaf area relationships, and root system controls over water uptake are providing new insights into integrated atmospheric-autecological controls over these hydrologic processes. These results are discussed in the context of newer eco-hydrological frameworks which may serve to aid in exploring how forest disturbance and subsequent trajectories of hydrologic recovery are likely to affect both forest growth dynamics and hydrology of forested landscapes in response to forest management, severe forest pest epidemics such as the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic in Western Canada, and climate change.

Gradation of complexity and predictability of hydrological processes

Science.gov (United States)

Sang, Yan-Fang; Singh, Vijay P.; Wen, Jun; Liu, Changming

2015-06-01

Quantification of the complexity and predictability of hydrological systems is important for evaluating the impact of climate change on hydrological processes, and for guiding water activities. In the literature, the focus seems to have been on describing the complexity of spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, but little attention has been paid to the study of complexity gradation, because the degree of absolute complexity of hydrological systems cannot be objectively evaluated. Here we show that complexity and predictability of hydrological processes can be graded into three ranks (low, middle, and high). The gradation is based on the difference in the energy distribution of hydrological series and that of white noise under multitemporal scales. It reflects different energy concentration levels and contents of deterministic components of the hydrological series in the three ranks. Higher energy concentration level reflects lower complexity and higher predictability, but scattered energy distribution being similar to white noise has the highest complexity and is almost unpredictable. We conclude that the three ranks (low, middle, and high) approximately correspond to deterministic, stochastic, and random hydrological systems, respectively. The result of complexity gradation can guide hydrological observations and modeling, and identification of similarity patterns among different hydrological systems.

An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael

2010-01-01

The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject to consider......The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present......-day period (1961-1990) are compared to an observational data set, with precipitation corrected for undercatch and wetting losses, to quantify systematic model errors. A delta change method is applied to cope with these biases. A question arises as to how variable the climate change signals are...

LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL INVESTMENTS IN LAND: SEEKING ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

extent of large-scale investment in land or to assess its impact on the people in recipient countries. .... favorable lease terms, apparently based on a belief that this is necessary to .... Harm to the rights of local occupiers of land can result from a dearth. 24. ..... applies to a self-identified group based on the group's traditions.

VIC-CropSyst-v2: A regional-scale modeling platform to simulate the nexus of climate, hydrology, cropping systems, and human decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Keyvan; Stöckle, Claudio; Chinnayakanahalli, Kiran; Nelson, Roger; Liu, Mingliang; Rajagopalan, Kirti; Barik, Muhammad; Adam, Jennifer C.

2017-08-01

Food supply is affected by a complex nexus of land, atmosphere, and human processes, including short- and long-term stressors (e.g., drought and climate change, respectively). A simulation platform that captures these complex elements can be used to inform policy and best management practices to promote sustainable agriculture. We have developed a tightly coupled framework using the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and the CropSyst agricultural model. A mechanistic irrigation module was also developed for inclusion in this framework. Because VIC-CropSyst combines two widely used and mechanistic models (for crop phenology, growth, management, and macroscale hydrology), it can provide realistic and hydrologically consistent simulations of water availability, crop water requirements for irrigation, and agricultural productivity for both irrigated and dryland systems. This allows VIC-CropSyst to provide managers and decision makers with reliable information on regional water stresses and their impacts on food production. Additionally, VIC-CropSyst is being used in conjunction with socioeconomic models, river system models, and atmospheric models to simulate feedback processes between regional water availability, agricultural water management decisions, and land-atmosphere interactions. The performance of VIC-CropSyst was evaluated on both regional (over the US Pacific Northwest) and point scales. Point-scale evaluation involved using two flux tower sites located in agricultural fields in the US (Nebraska and Illinois). The agreement between recorded and simulated evapotranspiration (ET), applied irrigation water, soil moisture, leaf area index (LAI), and yield indicated that, although the model is intended to work on regional scales, it also captures field-scale processes in agricultural areas.

Large-scale land transformations in Indonesia: The role of ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

... enable timely responses to the impacts of large-scale land transformations in Central Kalimantan ... In partnership with UNESCO's Organization for Women in Science for the ... New funding opportunity for gender equality and climate change.

Modeling Pre- and Post- Wildfire Hydrologic Response to Vegetation Change in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory, A. E.; Benedict, K. K.; Zhang, S.; Savickas, J.

2017-12-01

Large scale, high severity wildfires in forests have become increasingly prevalent in the western United States due to fire exclusion. Although past work has focused on the immediate consequences of wildfire (ie. runoff magnitude and debris flow), little has been done to understand the post wildfire hydrologic consequences of vegetation regrowth. Furthermore, vegetation is often characterized by static parameterizations within hydrological models. In order to understand the temporal relationship between hydrologic processes and revegetation, we modularized and partially automated the hydrologic modeling process to increase connectivity between remotely sensed data, the Virtual Watershed Platform (a data management resource, called the VWP), input meteorological data, and the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This process was used to run simulations in the Valles Caldera of NM, an area impacted by the 2011 Las Conchas Fire, in PRMS before and after the Las Conchas to evaluate hydrologic process changes. The modeling environment addressed some of the existing challenges faced by hydrological modelers. At present, modelers are somewhat limited in their ability to push the boundaries of hydrologic understanding. Specific issues faced by modelers include limited computational resources to model processes at large spatial and temporal scales, data storage capacity and accessibility from the modeling platform, computational and time contraints for experimental modeling, and the skills to integrate modeling software in ways that have not been explored. By taking an interdisciplinary approach, we were able to address some of these challenges by leveraging the skills of hydrologic, data, and computer scientists; and the technical capabilities provided by a combination of on-demand/high-performance computing, distributed data, and cloud services. The hydrologic modeling process was modularized to include options for distributing meteorological data, parameter space

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the

Impacts of large-scale introduction of hydrogen in the road transport sector on urban air pollution and human exposure in Copenhagen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, S.S.; Ketzel, M.; Brandt, J.; Frohn, L.M.; Winther, M.; Nielsen, O.K. (Aarhus Univ.. National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde (Denmark)); Joergensen, K.; Karlsson, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy. Dept. of System Analysis, Roskilde (Denmark))

2011-07-15

The aim of the project 'Environmental and Health Impact Assessment of Scenarios for Renewable Energy Systems with Hydrogen' (HYSCENE) is to improve modelling of the environmental impacts and related socio-cultural and welfare economic impacts of a proposed hydrogen/renewable energy system with focus on large-scale introduction of hydrogen as energy carrier in the road transport sector (http://hyscene.dmu.dk). This extended abstract will focus on the impacts on urban air pollution and human exposure. (Author)

Methods for assessing the socioeconomic impacts of large-scale resource developments: implications for nuclear repository siting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.

1983-03-01

An overview of the major methods presently available for assessing the socioeconomic impacts of large-scale resource developments and includes discussion of the implications and applications of such methods for nuclear-waste-repository siting are provided. The report: (1) summarizes conceptual approaches underlying, and methodological alternatives for, the conduct of impact assessments in each substantive area, and then enumerates advantages and disadvantages of each alternative; (2) describes factors related to the impact-assessment process, impact events, and the characteristics of rural areas that affect the magnitude and distribution of impacts and the assessment of impacts in each area; (3) provides a detailed review of those methodologies actually used in impact assessment for each area, describes advantages and problems encountered in the use of each method, and identifies the frequency of use and the general level of acceptance of each technique; and (4) summarizes the implications of each area of projection for the repository-siting process, the applicability of the methods for each area to the special and standard features of repositories, and makes general recommendations concerning specific methods and procedures that should be incorporated in assessments for siting areas

Development and evaluation of a watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model

OpenAIRE

Cho, Younghyun

2016-01-01

A watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed to predict spatially distributed short- and long-term rainfall runoff generation and routing using relatively simple methodologies and state-of-the-art spatial data in a GIS environment. In Distributed-Clark, spatially distributed excess rainfall estimated with the SCS curve number method and a GIS-based set of separated unit hydrographs (spatially distribut...

A comparison of MIKE SHE and DRAINMOD for modeling forested wetland hydrology in coastal South Carolina, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Zhaohua Dai; Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; Carl C. Trettin; Changsheng Li; Harbin Li

2010-01-01

Models are widely used to assess hydrologic impacts of land-management, land-use change and climate change. Two hydrologic models with different spatial scales, MIKE SHE (spatially distributed, watershed-scale) and DRAINMOD (lumped, fieldscale), were compared in terms of their performance in predicting stream flow and water table depth in a first-order forested...

Multiple Changes in the Hydrologic Regime of the Yangtze River and the Possible Impact of Reservoirs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feng Huang

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates hydrologic changes in the Yangtze River using long-term daily stream flow records (1955–2013 collected from four flow gauging stations located from the upper to the lower reaches of the river. The hydrologic regime is quantified using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, which statistically characterize hydrologic variation within each year. Scanning t-test is applied to analyze multiple changes in the hydrologic regime at different time scales. Then, coherency analysis is applied to identify common changes among different hydrologic indicators and across different reaches of the Yangtze River. The results point to various change patterns in the five components of hydrologic regime, including the magnitude of monthly water conditions, magnitude and duration of annual extreme water conditions, timing of annual extreme water conditions, frequency and duration of high and low pulses, and rate and frequency of water condition changes. The 32 hydrologic indicators feature multiple temporal-scale changes. Spatial variations can be observed in the hydrologic changes of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the river. Common changes in different reaches consist of hydrologic indicators including the monthly flow in October and the low-flow indicators. The monthly flow in October is dominated by decreasing trends, while the monthly flows between January and March, the annual minimum 1/3/7/30/90-day flows, and the base flow index are characterized by increasing trends. Low pulse duration and total days of low pulses feature downward trends. The coherency analysis reveals significant relationships between the monthly flow in October and the low-flow indicators, indicating that reservoir regulation is an important factor behind the hydrologic changes.

Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

Cracking up (and down): Linking multi-domain hydraulic properties with multi-scale hydrological processes in shrink-swell soils

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, R. D.; Rupp, D. E.; Abou Najm, M. R.; Selker, J. S.

2017-12-01

Shrink-swell soils, often classified as Vertisols or vertic intergrades, are found on every continent except Antarctica and within many agricultural and urban regions. These soils are characterized by cyclical shrinking and swelling, in which bulk density and porosity distributions vary as functions of time and soil moisture. Crack networks that form in these soils act as dominant environmental controls on the movement of water, contaminants, and gases, making it important to develop fundamental understanding and tractable models of their hydrologic characteristics and behaviors. In this study, which took place primarily in the Secano Interior region of South-Central Chile, we quantified soil-water interactions across scales using a diverse and innovative dataset. These measurements were then utilized to develop a set of parsimonious multi-domain models for describing hydraulic properties and hydrological processes in shrink-swell soils. In a series of examples, we show how this model can predict porosity distributions, crack widths, saturated hydraulic conductivities, and surface runoff (i.e., overland flow) thresholds, by capturing the dominant mechanisms by which water moves through and interacts with clayey soils. Altogether, these models successfully link small-scale shrinkage/swelling behaviors with large-scale thresholds, and can be applied to describe important processes such as infiltration, overland flow development, and the preferential flow and transport of fluids and gases.

Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

2018-05-01

Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

The micro-environmental impact of volatile organic compound emissions from large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dutta, Tanushree [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ki-Hyun, E-mail: kkim61@hanyang.ac.kr [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of); Uchimiya, Minori [USDA-ARS Southern Regional Research Center, 1100 Robert E. Lee Boulevard, New Orleans, LA 70124 (United States); Kumar, Pawan [Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 11016 (India); Das, Subhasish; Bhattacharya, Satya Sundar [Soil & Agro-Bioengineering Lab, Department of Environmental Science, Tezpur University, Napaam 784028 (India); Szulejko, Jan [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of)

2016-11-15

Large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space can exert significant impacts on the local air chemistry due to human emissions of volatile organics. Variations of air-quality in such small scale can be studied by quantifying fingerprint volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetone, toluene, and isoprene produced during concerts, movie screenings, and sport events (like the Olympics and the World Cup). This review summarizes the extent of VOC accumulation resulting from a large population in a confined area or in a small open area during sporting and other recreational activities. Apart from VOCs emitted directly from human bodies (e.g., perspiration and exhaled breath), those released indirectly from other related sources (e.g., smoking, waste disposal, discharge of food-waste, and use of personal-care products) are also discussed. Although direct and indirect emissions of VOCs from human may constitute <1% of the global atmospheric VOCs budget, unique spatiotemporal variations in VOCs species within a confined space can have unforeseen impacts on the local atmosphere to lead to acute human exposure to harmful pollutants.

The micro-environmental impact of volatile organic compound emissions from large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dutta, Tanushree; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Uchimiya, Minori; Kumar, Pawan; Das, Subhasish; Bhattacharya, Satya Sundar; Szulejko, Jan

2016-01-01

Large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space can exert significant impacts on the local air chemistry due to human emissions of volatile organics. Variations of air-quality in such small scale can be studied by quantifying fingerprint volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetone, toluene, and isoprene produced during concerts, movie screenings, and sport events (like the Olympics and the World Cup). This review summarizes the extent of VOC accumulation resulting from a large population in a confined area or in a small open area during sporting and other recreational activities. Apart from VOCs emitted directly from human bodies (e.g., perspiration and exhaled breath), those released indirectly from other related sources (e.g., smoking, waste disposal, discharge of food-waste, and use of personal-care products) are also discussed. Although direct and indirect emissions of VOCs from human may constitute <1% of the global atmospheric VOCs budget, unique spatiotemporal variations in VOCs species within a confined space can have unforeseen impacts on the local atmosphere to lead to acute human exposure to harmful pollutants.

Large scale hydrogeological modelling of a low-lying complex coastal aquifer system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meyer, Rena

2018-01-01

intrusion. In this thesis a new methodological approach was developed to combine 3D numerical groundwater modelling with a detailed geological description and hydrological, geochemical and geophysical data. It was applied to a regional scale saltwater intrusion in order to analyse and quantify...... the groundwater flow dynamics, identify the driving mechanisms that formed the saltwater intrusion to its present extent and to predict its progression in the future. The study area is located in the transboundary region between Southern Denmark and Northern Germany, adjacent to the Wadden Sea. Here, a large-scale...... parametrization schemes that accommodate hydrogeological heterogeneities. Subsequently, density-dependent flow and transport modelling of multiple salt sources was successfully applied to simulate the formation of the saltwater intrusion during the last 4200 years, accounting for historic changes in the hydraulic...

Impact on demersal fish of a large-scale and deep sand extraction site with ecosystem-based landscaped sandbars

Science.gov (United States)

de Jong, Maarten F.; Baptist, Martin J.; van Hal, Ralf; de Boois, Ingeborg J.; Lindeboom, Han J.; Hoekstra, Piet

2014-06-01

For the seaward harbour extension of the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, approximately 220 million m3 sand was extracted between 2009 and 2013. In order to decrease the surface area of direct impact, the authorities permitted deep sand extraction, down to 20 m below the seabed. Biological and physical impacts of large-scale and deep sand extraction are still being investigated and largely unknown. For this reason, we investigated the colonization of demersal fish in a deep sand extraction site. Two sandbars were artificially created by selective dredging, copying naturally occurring meso-scale bedforms to increase habitat heterogeneity and increasing post-dredging benthic and demersal fish species richness and biomass. Significant differences in demersal fish species assemblages in the sand extraction site were associated with variables such as water depth, median grain size, fraction of very fine sand, biomass of white furrow shell (Abra alba) and time after the cessation of sand extraction. Large quantities of undigested crushed white furrow shell fragments were found in all stomachs and intestines of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), indicating that it is an important prey item. One and two years after cessation, a significant 20-fold increase in demersal fish biomass was observed in deep parts of the extraction site. In the troughs of a landscaped sandbar however, a significant drop in biomass down to reference levels and a significant change in species assemblage was observed two years after cessation. The fish assemblage at the crests of the sandbars differed significantly from the troughs with tub gurnard (Chelidonichthys lucerna) being a Dufrêne-Legendre indicator species of the crests. This is a first indication of the applicability of landscaping techniques to induce heterogeneity of the seabed although it remains difficult to draw a strong conclusion due the lack of replication in the experiment. A new ecological equilibrium is not reached after 2

Meteorological impact assessment of possible large scale irrigation in Southwest Saudi Arabia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maat, ter H.W.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Ohba, R.; Ueda, H.; Bisselink, B.; Bauer, T.

2006-01-01

On continental to regional scales feedbacks between landuse and landcover change and climate have been widely documented over the past 10¿15 years. In the present study we explore the possibility that also vegetation changes over much smaller areas may affect local precipitation regimes. Large scale

The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Refsgaard, Jens C.; Sonnenborg, Torben; Butts, Michael

2016-01-01

This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts with particular focus on groundwater aspects for a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. We find results similar...... to surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we find uncertainties related to geological conceptualisation and hydrological model discretisation to be dominating for projections of well field...... climate-hydrology models....

Embedding complex hydrology in the regional climate system – Dynamic coupling across different modelling domains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Butts, Michael; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2014-01-01

the atmosphere and the groundwater via the land surface and can represent the lateral movement of water in both the surface and subsurface and their interactions, not normally accounted for in climate models. Meso-scale processes are important for climate in general and rainfall in particular. Hydrological......To improve our understanding of the impacts of feedback between the atmosphere and the terrestrial water cycle including groundwater and to improve the integration of water resource management modelling for climate adaption we have developed a dynamically coupled climate–hydrological modelling...... impacts are assessed at the catchment scale, the most important scale for water management. Feedback between groundwater, the land surface and the atmosphere occurs across a range of scales. Recognising this, the coupling was developed to allow dynamic exchange of water and energy at the catchment scale...

Hydrologic Impact of Harvesting and Road Construction in Mountainous Regime of Pacific Northwest

Science.gov (United States)

Du, E.; Hubbart, J.; Gravelle, J.; Link, T.

2006-12-01

The impact of forest management practices on hydrologic flow regimes have been debated for years. Vegetation removal and forest road construction are two anthropogenic disturbances that may affect watershed hydrology. The Mica Creek Experimental Watershed (MCEW), ID was initiated by Potlatch Corporation in 1990 to evaluate how contemporary forest harvest practices may impact water flows, quality and aquatic health. The study was recently expanded to identify the specific mechanisms producing the observed flow responses. The extensive and long term monitoring program in MCEW enables the validation of simulated internal watershed processes, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of models to simulate the hydrologic effects of land cover change. The spatially-distributed, physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), will be used to deconvolve the effects of canopy change, forest road construction, and climate variability in MCEW. First, the model performance will be assessed for pre-harvest, post-road, and post-harvest experimental periods. The model will then be used to explore how the flow regime would be expected to differ under historical, alternative management and future scenarios. A retrospective study of fully-harvested and increased forest road density (as opposed to current road density of 3 to 5 percent by surface area) will be compared with contemporary management practices. The impact of harvest patterns on sub-catchment flows will be assessed to understand the degree to which flow synchronization or desynchronization on confluent streams might affect cumulative downstream flow regime. Future scenarios will assess the potential impact of climatic variability that is expected to raise the transient snow zone and increase the wintertime rain to snow ratios in the Pacific Northwest. Variables such as harvest patterns and climate variation will be manipulated to project whether the hydrologic effects of land cover and

Scenario-Based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Watershed Hydrology in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feng Wu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This study evaluated hydrological impacts of potential climate and land use changes in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China. The future climate data for the simulation with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT were prepared using a dynamical downscaling method. The future land uses were simulated with the Dynamic Land Use System (DLS model by establishing Multinomial Logistic Regression (MNL model for six land use types. In 2006–2030, land uses in the basin will experience a significant change with a prominent increase in urban areas, a moderate increase in grassland, and a great decrease in unused land. Besides, the simulation results showed that in comparison to those during 1981–2005 the temperature and precipitation during 2006–2030 will change by +0.8°C and +10.8%, respectively. The land use change and climate change will jointly make the water yield change by +8.5%, while they will separately make the water yield change by −1.8% and +9.8%, respectively. The predicted large increase in future precipitation and the corresponding decrease in unused land will have substantial impacts on the watershed hydrology, especially on the surface runoff and streamflow. Therefore, to mitigate negative hydrological impacts and utilize positive impacts, both land use and climate changes should be considered in water resource planning for the Heihe River Basin.

The Influence of Runoff and Surface Hydrology on Titan's Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Faulk, S.; Lora, J. M.; Mitchell, J.; Moon, S.

2017-12-01

Titan's surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle, producing characteristic weather and seasonal climate patterns. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane "wetlands" reservoirs realistically produce observed cloud features and temperature profiles of Titan's atmosphere, whereas "aquaplanet" simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan's surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan's large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow of a global or regional methane table. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan's hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan's global climate, and lays the groundwork for further surface hydrology developments in Titan

Hydrologic Landscape Classification to Estimate Bristol Bay Watershed Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

The use of hydrologic landscapes has proven to be a useful tool for broad scale assessment and classification of landscapes across the United States. These classification systems help organize larger geographical areas into areas of similar hydrologic characteristics based on cl...