WorldWideScience

Sample records for large-scale hydrologic impacts

  1. Disinformative data in large-scale hydrological modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kauffeldt

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale hydrological modelling has become an important tool for the study of global and regional water resources, climate impacts, and water-resources management. However, modelling efforts over large spatial domains are fraught with problems of data scarcity, uncertainties and inconsistencies between model forcing and evaluation data. Model-independent methods to screen and analyse data for such problems are needed. This study aimed at identifying data inconsistencies in global datasets using a pre-modelling analysis, inconsistencies that can be disinformative for subsequent modelling. The consistency between (i basin areas for different hydrographic datasets, and (ii between climate data (precipitation and potential evaporation and discharge data, was examined in terms of how well basin areas were represented in the flow networks and the possibility of water-balance closure. It was found that (i most basins could be well represented in both gridded basin delineations and polygon-based ones, but some basins exhibited large area discrepancies between flow-network datasets and archived basin areas, (ii basins exhibiting too-high runoff coefficients were abundant in areas where precipitation data were likely affected by snow undercatch, and (iii the occurrence of basins exhibiting losses exceeding the potential-evaporation limit was strongly dependent on the potential-evaporation data, both in terms of numbers and geographical distribution. Some inconsistencies may be resolved by considering sub-grid variability in climate data, surface-dependent potential-evaporation estimates, etc., but further studies are needed to determine the reasons for the inconsistencies found. Our results emphasise the need for pre-modelling data analysis to identify dataset inconsistencies as an important first step in any large-scale study. Applying data-screening methods before modelling should also increase our chances to draw robust conclusions from subsequent

  2. Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

    2017-12-01

    Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

  3. Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological

  4. Large-scale hydrology in Europe : observed patterns and model performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gudmundsson, Lukas

    2011-06-15

    In a changing climate, terrestrial water storages are of great interest as water availability impacts key aspects of ecosystem functioning. Thus, a better understanding of the variations of wet and dry periods will contribute to fully grasp processes of the earth system such as nutrient cycling and vegetation dynamics. Currently, river runoff from small, nearly natural, catchments is one of the few variables of the terrestrial water balance that is regularly monitored with detailed spatial and temporal coverage on large scales. River runoff, therefore, provides a foundation to approach European hydrology with respect to observed patterns on large scales, with regard to the ability of models to capture these.The analysis of observed river flow from small catchments, focused on the identification and description of spatial patterns of simultaneous temporal variations of runoff. These are dominated by large-scale variations of climatic variables but also altered by catchment processes. It was shown that time series of annual low, mean and high flows follow the same atmospheric drivers. The observation that high flows are more closely coupled to large scale atmospheric drivers than low flows, indicates the increasing influence of catchment properties on runoff under dry conditions. Further, it was shown that the low-frequency variability of European runoff is dominated by two opposing centres of simultaneous variations, such that dry years in the north are accompanied by wet years in the south.Large-scale hydrological models are simplified representations of our current perception of the terrestrial water balance on large scales. Quantification of the models strengths and weaknesses is the prerequisite for a reliable interpretation of simulation results. Model evaluations may also enable to detect shortcomings with model assumptions and thus enable a refinement of the current perception of hydrological systems. The ability of a multi model ensemble of nine large-scale

  5. Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

    2016-01-01

    Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

  6. Using radar altimetry to update a large-scale hydrological model of the Brahmaputra river basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Finsen, F.; Milzow, Christian; Smith, R.

    2014-01-01

    Measurements of river and lake water levels from space-borne radar altimeters (past missions include ERS, Envisat, Jason, Topex) are useful for calibration and validation of large-scale hydrological models in poorly gauged river basins. Altimetry data availability over the downstream reaches...... of the Brahmaputra is excellent (17 high-quality virtual stations from ERS-2, 6 from Topex and 10 from Envisat are available for the Brahmaputra). In this study, altimetry data are used to update a large-scale Budyko-type hydrological model of the Brahmaputra river basin in real time. Altimetry measurements...... improved model performance considerably. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency increased from 0.77 to 0.83. Real-time river basin modelling using radar altimetry has the potential to improve the predictive capability of large-scale hydrological models elsewhere on the planet....

  7. Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Van Loon

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought? To answer this question, we evaluated the simulation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of ten large-scale models, both land-surface models and global hydrological models, that participated in the model intercomparison project of WATCH (WaterMIP. For a selection of case study areas, we studied drought characteristics (number of droughts, duration, severity, drought propagation features (pooling, attenuation, lag, lengthening, and hydrological drought typology (classical rainfall deficit drought, rain-to-snow-season drought, wet-to-dry-season drought, cold snow season drought, warm snow season drought, composite drought.

    Drought characteristics simulated by large-scale models clearly reflected drought propagation; i.e. drought events became fewer and longer when moving through the hydrological cycle. However, more differentiation was expected between fast and slowly responding systems, with slowly responding systems having fewer and longer droughts in runoff than fast responding systems. This was not found using large-scale models. Drought propagation features were poorly reproduced by the large-scale models, because runoff reacted immediately to precipitation, in all case study areas. This fast reaction to precipitation, even in cold climates in winter and in semi-arid climates in summer, also greatly influenced the hydrological drought typology as identified by the large-scale models. In general, the large-scale models had the correct representation of drought types, but the percentages of occurrence had some important mismatches, e.g. an overestimation of classical rainfall deficit droughts, and an

  8. Repurposing of open data through large scale hydrological modelling - hypeweb.smhi.se

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strömbäck, Lena; Andersson, Jafet; Donnelly, Chantal; Gustafsson, David; Isberg, Kristina; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Strömqvist, Johan; Arheimer, Berit

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological modelling demands large amounts of spatial data, such as soil properties, land use, topography, lakes and reservoirs, ice and snow coverage, water management (e.g. irrigation patterns and regulations), meteorological data and observed water discharge in rivers. By using such data, the hydrological model will in turn provide new data that can be used for new purposes (i.e. re-purposing). This presentation will give an example of how readily available open data from public portals have been re-purposed by using the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model in a number of large-scale model applications covering numerous subbasins and rivers. HYPE is a dynamic, semi-distributed, process-based, and integrated catchment model. The model output is launched as new Open Data at the web site www.hypeweb.smhi.se to be used for (i) Climate change impact assessments on water resources and dynamics; (ii) The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) for characterization and development of measure programs to improve the ecological status of water bodies; (iii) Design variables for infrastructure constructions; (iv) Spatial water-resource mapping; (v) Operational forecasts (1-10 days and seasonal) on floods and droughts; (vi) Input to oceanographic models for operational forecasts and marine status assessments; (vii) Research. The following regional domains have been modelled so far with different resolutions (number of subbasins within brackets): Sweden (37 000), Europe (35 000), Arctic basin (30 000), La Plata River (6 000), Niger River (800), Middle-East North-Africa (31 000), and the Indian subcontinent (6 000). The Hype web site provides several interactive web applications for exploring results from the models. The user can explore an overview of various water variables for historical and future conditions. Moreover the user can explore and download historical time series of discharge for each basin and explore the performance of the model

  9. Large-scale impact cratering on the terrestrial planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grieve, R.A.F.

    1982-01-01

    The crater densities on the earth and moon form the basis for a standard flux-time curve that can be used in dating unsampled planetary surfaces and constraining the temporal history of endogenic geologic processes. Abundant evidence is seen not only that impact cratering was an important surface process in planetary history but also that large imapact events produced effects that were crucial in scale. By way of example, it is noted that the formation of multiring basins on the early moon was as important in defining the planetary tectonic framework as plate tectonics is on the earth. Evidence from several planets suggests that the effects of very-large-scale impacts go beyond the simple formation of an impact structure and serve to localize increased endogenic activity over an extended period of geologic time. Even though no longer occurring with the frequency and magnitude of early solar system history, it is noted that large scale impact events continue to affect the local geology of the planets. 92 references

  10. A Web-based Distributed Voluntary Computing Platform for Large Scale Hydrological Computations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, I.; Agliamzanov, R.

    2014-12-01

    Distributed volunteer computing can enable researchers and scientist to form large parallel computing environments to utilize the computing power of the millions of computers on the Internet, and use them towards running large scale environmental simulations and models to serve the common good of local communities and the world. Recent developments in web technologies and standards allow client-side scripting languages to run at speeds close to native application, and utilize the power of Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Using a client-side scripting language like JavaScript, we have developed an open distributed computing framework that makes it easy for researchers to write their own hydrologic models, and run them on volunteer computers. Users will easily enable their websites for visitors to volunteer sharing their computer resources to contribute running advanced hydrological models and simulations. Using a web-based system allows users to start volunteering their computational resources within seconds without installing any software. The framework distributes the model simulation to thousands of nodes in small spatial and computational sizes. A relational database system is utilized for managing data connections and queue management for the distributed computing nodes. In this paper, we present a web-based distributed volunteer computing platform to enable large scale hydrological simulations and model runs in an open and integrated environment.

  11. Findings and Challenges in Fine-Resolution Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Her, Y. G.

    2017-12-01

    Fine-resolution large-scale (FL) modeling can provide the overall picture of the hydrological cycle and transport while taking into account unique local conditions in the simulation. It can also help develop water resources management plans consistent across spatial scales by describing the spatial consequences of decisions and hydrological events extensively. FL modeling is expected to be common in the near future as global-scale remotely sensed data are emerging, and computing resources have been advanced rapidly. There are several spatially distributed models available for hydrological analyses. Some of them rely on numerical methods such as finite difference/element methods (FDM/FEM), which require excessive computing resources (implicit scheme) to manipulate large matrices or small simulation time intervals (explicit scheme) to maintain the stability of the solution, to describe two-dimensional overland processes. Others make unrealistic assumptions such as constant overland flow velocity to reduce the computational loads of the simulation. Thus, simulation efficiency often comes at the expense of precision and reliability in FL modeling. Here, we introduce a new FL continuous hydrological model and its application to four watersheds in different landscapes and sizes from 3.5 km2 to 2,800 km2 at the spatial resolution of 30 m on an hourly basis. The model provided acceptable accuracy statistics in reproducing hydrological observations made in the watersheds. The modeling outputs including the maps of simulated travel time, runoff depth, soil water content, and groundwater recharge, were animated, visualizing the dynamics of hydrological processes occurring in the watersheds during and between storm events. Findings and challenges were discussed in the context of modeling efficiency, accuracy, and reproducibility, which we found can be improved by employing advanced computing techniques and hydrological understandings, by using remotely sensed hydrological

  12. Obtaining high-resolution stage forecasts by coupling large-scale hydrologic models with sensor data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, K. J.; Kerkez, B.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate how "big" quantities of distributed sensor data can be coupled with a large-scale hydrologic model, in particular the National Water Model (NWM), to obtain hyper-resolution forecasts. The recent launch of the NWM provides a great example of how growing computational capacity is enabling a new generation of massive hydrologic models. While the NWM spans an unprecedented spatial extent, there remain many questions about how to improve forecast at the street-level, the resolution at which many stakeholders make critical decisions. Further, the NWM runs on supercomputers, so water managers who may have access to their own high-resolution measurements may not readily be able to assimilate them into the model. To that end, we ask the question: how can the advances of the large-scale NWM be coupled with new local observations to enable hyper-resolution hydrologic forecasts? A methodology is proposed whereby the flow forecasts of the NWM are directly mapped to high-resolution stream levels using Dynamical System Identification. We apply the methodology across a sensor network of 182 gages in Iowa. Of these sites, approximately one third have shown to perform well in high-resolution flood forecasting when coupled with the outputs of the NWM. The quality of these forecasts is characterized using Principal Component Analysis and Random Forests to identify where the NWM may benefit from new sources of local observations. We also discuss how this approach can help municipalities identify where they should place low-cost sensors to most benefit from flood forecasts of the NWM.

  13. Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, J.

    There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.0 0 C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

  14. Using GRACE Satellite Gravimetry for Assessing Large-Scale Hydrologic Extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Y. Sun

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global assessment of the spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial total water storage anomalies (TWSA in response to hydrologic extremes is critical for water resources management. Using TWSA derived from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE satellites, this study systematically assessed the skill of the TWSA-climatology (TC approach and breakpoint (BP detection method for identifying large-scale hydrologic extremes. The TC approach calculates standardized anomalies by using the mean and standard deviation of the GRACE TWSA corresponding to each month. In the BP detection method, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD is first applied to identify the mean return period of TWSA extremes, and then a statistical procedure is used to identify the actual occurrence times of abrupt changes (i.e., BPs in TWSA. Both detection methods were demonstrated on basin-averaged TWSA time series for the world’s 35 largest river basins. A nonlinear event coincidence analysis measure was applied to cross-examine abrupt changes detected by these methods with those detected by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Results show that our EMD-assisted BP procedure is a promising tool for identifying hydrologic extremes using GRACE TWSA data. Abrupt changes detected by the BP method coincide well with those of the SPI anomalies and with documented hydrologic extreme events. Event timings obtained by the TC method were ambiguous for a number of river basins studied, probably because the GRACE data length is too short to derive long-term climatology at this time. The BP approach demonstrates a robust wet-dry anomaly detection capability, which will be important for applications with the upcoming GRACE Follow-On mission.

  15. Impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarazin, Y [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Grandgirard, V [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Dif-Pradalier, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Fleurence, E [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Garbet, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Ghendrih, Ph [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC centre de Cadarache, 13108 St-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Bertrand, P [LPMIA-Universite Henri Poincare Nancy I, Boulevard des Aiguillettes BP239, 54506 Vandoe uvre-les-Nancy (France); Besse, N [LPMIA-Universite Henri Poincare Nancy I, Boulevard des Aiguillettes BP239, 54506 Vandoe uvre-les-Nancy (France); Crouseilles, N [IRMA, UMR 7501 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, 7 rue Rene Descartes, 67084 Strasbourg (France); Sonnendruecker, E [IRMA, UMR 7501 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, 7 rue Rene Descartes, 67084 Strasbourg (France); Latu, G [LSIIT, UMR 7005 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, Bd Sebastien Brant BP10413, 67412 Illkirch (France); Violard, E [LSIIT, UMR 7005 CNRS/Universite Louis Pasteur, Bd Sebastien Brant BP10413, 67412 Illkirch (France)

    2006-12-15

    The impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport in magnetized plasmas is explored by means of various kinetic models. Zonal flows are found to lead to a non-linear upshift of turbulent transport in a 3D kinetic model for interchange turbulence. Such a transition is absent from fluid simulations, performed with the same numerical tool, which also predict a much larger transport. The discrepancy cannot be explained by zonal flows only, despite they being overdamped in fluids. Indeed, some difference remains, although reduced, when they are artificially suppressed. Zonal flows are also reported to trigger transport barriers in a 4D drift-kinetic model for slab ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence. The density gradient acts as a source drive for zonal flows, while their curvature back stabilizes the turbulence. Finally, 5D simulations of toroidal ITG modes with the global and full-f GYSELA code require the equilibrium density function to depend on the motion invariants only. If not, the generated strong mean flows can completely quench turbulent transport.

  16. Impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarazin, Y; Grandgirard, V; Dif-Pradalier, G; Fleurence, E; Garbet, X; Ghendrih, Ph; Bertrand, P; Besse, N; Crouseilles, N; Sonnendruecker, E; Latu, G; Violard, E

    2006-01-01

    The impact of large scale flows on turbulent transport in magnetized plasmas is explored by means of various kinetic models. Zonal flows are found to lead to a non-linear upshift of turbulent transport in a 3D kinetic model for interchange turbulence. Such a transition is absent from fluid simulations, performed with the same numerical tool, which also predict a much larger transport. The discrepancy cannot be explained by zonal flows only, despite they being overdamped in fluids. Indeed, some difference remains, although reduced, when they are artificially suppressed. Zonal flows are also reported to trigger transport barriers in a 4D drift-kinetic model for slab ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence. The density gradient acts as a source drive for zonal flows, while their curvature back stabilizes the turbulence. Finally, 5D simulations of toroidal ITG modes with the global and full-f GYSELA code require the equilibrium density function to depend on the motion invariants only. If not, the generated strong mean flows can completely quench turbulent transport

  17. A Quantitative Socio-hydrological Characterization of Water Security in Large-Scale Irrigation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, A.; Muhammad, A.; Wescoat, J. L., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Large-scale, legacy canal systems, such as the irrigation infrastructure in the Indus Basin in Punjab, Pakistan, have been primarily conceived, constructed, and operated with a techno-centric approach. The emerging socio-hydrological approaches provide a new lens for studying such systems to potentially identify fresh insights for addressing contemporary challenges of water security. In this work, using the partial definition of water security as "the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water", supply reliability is construed as a partial measure of water security in irrigation systems. A set of metrics are used to quantitatively study reliability of surface supply in the canal systems of Punjab, Pakistan using an extensive dataset of 10-daily surface water deliveries over a decade (2007-2016) and of high frequency (10-minute) flow measurements over one year. The reliability quantification is based on comparison of actual deliveries and entitlements, which are a combination of hydrological and social constructs. The socio-hydrological lens highlights critical issues of how flows are measured, monitored, perceived, and experienced from the perspective of operators (government officials) and users (famers). The analysis reveals varying levels of reliability (and by extension security) of supply when data is examined across multiple temporal and spatial scales. The results shed new light on evolution of water security (as partially measured by supply reliability) for surface irrigation in the Punjab province of Pakistan and demonstrate that "information security" (defined as reliable availability of sufficiently detailed data) is vital for enabling water security. It is found that forecasting and management (that are social processes) lead to differences between entitlements and actual deliveries, and there is significant potential to positively affect supply reliability through interventions in the social realm.

  18. Large-scale hydrological modelling in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güntner, Andreas

    2002-07-01

    for the generating rainfall time series of higher temporal resolution. All model parameters of Wasa can be derived from physiographic information of the study area. Thus, model calibration is primarily not required. Model applications of Wasa for historical time series generally results in a good model performance when comparing the simulation results of river discharge and reservoir storage volumes with observed data for river basins of various sizes. The mean water balance as well as the high interannual and intra-annual variability is reasonably represented by the model. Limitations of the modelling concept are most markedly seen for sub-basins with a runoff component from deep groundwater bodies of which the dynamics cannot be satisfactorily represented without calibration. Further results of model applications are: (1) Lateral processes of redistribution of runoff and soil moisture at the hillslope scale, in particular reinfiltration of surface runoff, lead to markedly smaller discharge volumes at the basin scale than the simple sum of runoff of the individual sub-areas. Thus, these processes are to be captured also in large-scale models. The different relevance of these processes for different conditions is demonstrated by a larger percentage decrease of discharge volumes in dry as compared to wet years. (2) Precipitation characteristics have a major impact on the hydrological response of semi-arid environments. In particular, underestimated rainfall intensities in the rainfall input due to the rough temporal resolution of the model and due to interpolation effects and, consequently, underestimated runoff volumes have to be compensated in the model. A scaling factor in the infiltration module or the use of disaggregated hourly rainfall data show good results in this respect. The simulation results of Wasa are characterized by large uncertainties. These are, on the one hand, due to uncertainties of the model structure to adequately represent the relevant

  19. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    breaching. Our results demonstrate that violent, millennial-scale storms can trigger significant large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coasts, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with a single extreme storm event....

  20. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by ... is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order ... predictand relationships are often very complex. .... constraints to solve the optimization problem. ..... social, and environmental sustainability.

  1. Environmental Impacts of Large Scale Biochar Application Through Spatial Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, I.; Archontoulis, S.

    2017-12-01

    In an effort to study the environmental (emissions, soil quality) and production (yield) impacts of biochar application at regional scales we coupled the APSIM-Biochar model with the pSIMS parallel platform. So far the majority of biochar research has been concentrated on lab to field studies to advance scientific knowledge. Regional scale assessments are highly needed to assist decision making. The overall objective of this simulation study was to identify areas in the USA that have the most gain environmentally from biochar's application, as well as areas which our model predicts a notable yield increase due to the addition of biochar. We present the modifications in both APSIM biochar and pSIMS components that were necessary to facilitate these large scale model runs across several regions in the United States at a resolution of 5 arcminutes. This study uses the AgMERRA global climate data set (1980-2010) and the Global Soil Dataset for Earth Systems modeling as a basis for creating its simulations, as well as local management operations for maize and soybean cropping systems and different biochar application rates. The regional scale simulation analysis is in progress. Preliminary results showed that the model predicts that high quality soils (particularly those common to Iowa cropping systems) do not receive much, if any, production benefit from biochar. However, soils with low soil organic matter ( 0.5%) do get a noteworthy yield increase of around 5-10% in the best cases. We also found N2O emissions to be spatial and temporal specific; increase in some areas and decrease in some other areas due to biochar application. In contrast, we found increases in soil organic carbon and plant available water in all soils (top 30 cm) due to biochar application. The magnitude of these increases (% change from the control) were larger in soil with low organic matter (below 1.5%) and smaller in soils with high organic matter (above 3%) and also dependent on biochar

  2. Modeling the Hydrologic Effects of Large-Scale Green Infrastructure Projects with GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bado, R. A.; Fekete, B. M.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2015-12-01

    Impervious surfaces in urban areas generate excess runoff, which in turn causes flooding, combined sewer overflows, and degradation of adjacent surface waters. Municipal environmental protection agencies have shown a growing interest in mitigating these effects with 'green' infrastructure practices that partially restore the perviousness and water holding capacity of urban centers. Assessment of the performance of current and future green infrastructure projects is hindered by the lack of adequate hydrological modeling tools; conventional techniques fail to account for the complex flow pathways of urban environments, and detailed analyses are difficult to prepare for the very large domains in which green infrastructure projects are implemented. Currently, no standard toolset exists that can rapidly and conveniently predict runoff, consequent inundations, and sewer overflows at a city-wide scale. We demonstrate how streamlined modeling techniques can be used with open-source GIS software to efficiently model runoff in large urban catchments. Hydraulic parameters and flow paths through city blocks, roadways, and sewer drains are automatically generated from GIS layers, and ultimately urban flow simulations can be executed for a variety of rainfall conditions. With this methodology, users can understand the implications of large-scale land use changes and green/gray storm water retention systems on hydraulic loading, peak flow rates, and runoff volumes.

  3. A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large-scale ice sheet models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Goeller

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available There is currently no doubt about the existence of a widespread hydrological network under the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux–basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

  4. A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large scale ice sheet models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeller, S.; Thoma, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Miller, H.

    2012-12-01

    There is currently no doubt about the existence of a wide-spread hydrological network under the Antarctic ice sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain inspired by the Gamburtsev Mountains, Antarctica. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux-basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out, that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

  5. Large-scale hydrological modelling and decision-making for sustainable water and land management along the Tarim River

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    The debate over the effectiveness of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in practice has lasted for years. As the complexity and scope of IWRM increases in practice, it is difficult for hydrological models to directly simulate the interactions among water, ecosystem and humans. This study presents the large-scale hydrological modeling (MIKE HYDRO) approach and a Decision Support System (DSS) for decision-making with stakeholders on the sustainable water and land management along the ...

  6. Large-scale hydrological modelling in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guentner, A

    2002-09-01

    Semi-arid areas are characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand due to population growth and economic development as well as a possible decreasing water availability in the course of climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future in these areas. The quantitative assessment of the water resources is a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management. For this task, hydrological models within a dynamic integrated framework are indispensable tools. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments. The study area is the Federal State of Ceara in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Surface water from reservoirs provides the largest part of water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions. (orig.)

  7. On the Fidelity of Semi-distributed Hydrologic Model Simulations for Large Scale Catchment Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajami, H.; Sharma, A.; Lakshmi, V.

    2017-12-01

    Application of semi-distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks is a viable alternative to fully distributed hyper-resolution hydrologic models due to computational efficiency and resolving fine-scale spatial structure of hydrologic fluxes and states. However, fidelity of semi-distributed model simulations is impacted by (1) formulation of hydrologic response units (HRUs), and (2) aggregation of catchment properties for formulating simulation elements. Here, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed Soil Moisture and Runoff simulation Toolkit (SMART) for large catchment scale simulations. In SMART, topologically connected HRUs are delineated using thresholds obtained from topographic and geomorphic analysis of a catchment, and simulation elements are equivalent cross sections (ECS) representative of a hillslope in first order sub-basins. Earlier investigations have shown that formulation of ECSs at the scale of a first order sub-basin reduces computational time significantly without compromising simulation accuracy. However, the implementation of this approach has not been fully explored for catchment scale simulations. To assess SMART performance, we set-up the model over the Little Washita watershed in Oklahoma. Model evaluations using in-situ soil moisture observations show satisfactory model performance. In addition, we evaluated the performance of a number of soil moisture disaggregation schemes recently developed to provide spatially explicit soil moisture outputs at fine scale resolution. Our results illustrate that the statistical disaggregation scheme performs significantly better than the methods based on topographic data. Future work is focused on assessing the performance of SMART using remotely sensed soil moisture observations using spatially based model evaluation metrics.

  8. Interactions between large-scale modes of climate and their relationship with Australian climate and hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whan, K. R.; Lindesay, J. A.; Timbal, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Williams, E.

    2010-12-01

    Australia’s natural environment is adapted to low rainfall availability and high variability but human systems are less able to adapt to variability in the hydrological cycle. Understanding the mechanisms underlying drought persistence and severity is vital to contextualising future climate change. Multiple external forcings mean the mechanisms of drought occurrence in south-eastern Australian are complex. The key influences on SEA climate are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the sub-tropical ridge (STR); each of these large-scale climate modes (LSCM) has been studied widely. The need for research into the interactions among the modes has been noted [1], although to date this has received limited attention. Relationships between LSCM and hydrometeorological variability are nonlinear, making linearity assumptions underlying usual statistical techniques (e.g. correlation, principle components analysis) questionable. In the current research a statistical technique that can deal with nonlinear interactions is applied to a new dataset enabling a full examination of the Australian water balance. The Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) dataset models the Australian water balance on a fine grid [2]. Hydrological parameters (e.g. soil moisture, evaporation, runoff) are modelled from meteorological data, allowing the complete Australian water balance (climate and hydrology) to be examined and the mechanisms of drought to be studied holistically. Classification and regression trees (CART) are a powerful regression-based technique that is capable of accounting for nonlinear effects. Although it has limited previous application in climate research [3] this methodology is particularly informative in cases with multiple predictors and nonlinear relationships such as climate variability. Statistical relationships between variables are the basis for the decision rules in CART that are used to split

  9. The UP modelling system for large scale hydrology: simulation of the Arkansas-Red River basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. G. Kilsby

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The UP (Upscaled Physically-based hydrological modelling system to the Arkansas-Red River basin (USA is designed for macro-scale simulations of land surface processes, and aims for a physical basis and, avoids the use of discharge records in the direct calibration of parameters. This is achieved in a two stage process: in the first stage parametrizations are derived from detailed modelling of selected representative small and then used in a second stage in which a simple distributed model is used to simulate the dynamic behaviour of the whole basin. The first stage of the process is described in a companion paper (Ewen et al., this issue, and the second stage of this process is described here. The model operated at an hourly time-step on 17-km grid squares for a two year simulation period, and represents all the important hydrological processes including regional aquifer recharge, groundwater discharge, infiltration- and saturation-excess runoff, evapotranspiration, snowmelt, overland and channel flow. Outputs from the model are discussed, and include river discharge at gauging stations and space-time fields of evaporation and soil moisture. Whilst the model efficiency assessed by comparison of simulated and observed discharge records is not as good as could be achieved with a model calibrated against discharge, there are considerable advantages in retaining a physical basis in applications to ungauged river basins and assessments of impacts of land use or climate change.

  10. The use of remotely sensed soil moisture data in large-scale models of the hydrological cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomonson, V. V.; Gurney, R. J.; Schmugge, T. J.

    1985-01-01

    Manabe (1982) has reviewed numerical simulations of the atmosphere which provided a framework within which an examination of the dynamics of the hydrological cycle could be conducted. It was found that the climate is sensitive to soil moisture variability in space and time. The challenge arises now to improve the observations of soil moisture so as to provide up-dated boundary condition inputs to large scale models including the hydrological cycle. Attention is given to details regarding the significance of understanding soil moisture variations, soil moisture estimation using remote sensing, and energy and moisture balance modeling.

  11. Which spatial discretization for distributed hydrological models? Proposition of a methodology and illustration for medium to large-scale catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dehotin

    2008-05-01

    modelling units (third level of discretization.

    The first part of the paper presents a review about catchment discretization in hydrological models from which we derived the principles of our general methodology. The second part of the paper focuses on the derivation of hydro-landscape units for medium to large scale catchments. For this sub-catchment discretization, we propose the use of principles borrowed from landscape classification. These principles are independent of the catchment size. They allow retaining suitable features required in the catchment description in order to fulfil a specific modelling objective. The method leads to unstructured and homogeneous areas within the sub-catchments, which can be used to derive modelling meshes. It avoids map smoothing by suppressing the smallest units, the role of which can be very important in hydrology, and provides a confidence map (the distance map for the classification. The confidence map can be used for further uncertainty analysis of modelling results. The final discretization remains consistent with the resolution of input data and that of the source maps. The last part of the paper illustrates the method using available data for the upper Saône catchment in France. The interest of the method for an efficient representation of landscape heterogeneity is illustrated by a comparison with more traditional mapping approaches. Examples of possible models, which can be built on this spatial discretization, are finally given as perspectives for the work.

  12. Large-scale hydrological model river storage and discharge correction using a satellite altimetry-based discharge product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Charlotte Marie; Paris, Adrien; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Boone, Aaron; Calmant, Stéphane; Garambois, Pierre-André; Santos da Silva, Joecila

    2018-04-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to study the continental part of the water cycle. However, even though their accuracy is increasing, inherent model uncertainties can not be avoided. In the meantime, remotely sensed observations of the continental water cycle variables such as soil moisture, lakes and river elevations are more frequent and accurate. Therefore, those two different types of information can be combined, using data assimilation techniques to reduce a model's uncertainties in its state variables or/and in its input parameters. The objective of this study is to present a data assimilation platform that assimilates into the large-scale ISBA-CTRIP LSM a punctual river discharge product, derived from ENVISAT nadir altimeter water elevation measurements and rating curves, over the whole Amazon basin. To deal with the scale difference between the model and the observation, the study also presents an initial development for a localization treatment that allows one to limit the impact of observations to areas close to the observation and in the same hydrological network. This assimilation platform is based on the ensemble Kalman filter and can correct either the CTRIP river water storage or the discharge. Root mean square error (RMSE) compared to gauge discharges is globally reduced until 21 % and at Óbidos, near the outlet, RMSE is reduced by up to 52 % compared to ENVISAT-based discharge. Finally, it is shown that localization improves results along the main tributaries.

  13. Impacts of Large Scale Wind Penetration on Energy Supply Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Kabouris

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Large penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES impacts Energy Supply Industry (ESI in many aspects leading to a fundamental change in electric power systems. It raises a number of technical challenges to the Transmission System Operators (TSOs, Distribution System Operators (DSOs and Wind Turbine Generators (WTG constructors. This paper aims to present in a thorough and coherent way the redrawn picture for Energy Systems under these conditions. Topics related to emergent technical challenges, technical solutions required and finally the impact on ESI due to large wind power penetration, are analyzed. Finally, general conclusions are extracted about the ESI current and future state and general directions are recommended.

  14. The benefits of using remotely sensed soil moisture in parameter identification of large-scale hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; de Jong, S. M.; de Roo, A.; Karssenberg, D.

    2014-08-01

    Large-scale hydrological models are nowadays mostly calibrated using observed discharge. As a result, a large part of the hydrological system, in particular the unsaturated zone, remains uncalibrated. Soil moisture observations from satellites have the potential to fill this gap. Here we evaluate the added value of remotely sensed soil moisture in calibration of large-scale hydrological models by addressing two research questions: (1) Which parameters of hydrological models can be identified by calibration with remotely sensed soil moisture? (2) Does calibration with remotely sensed soil moisture lead to an improved calibration of hydrological models compared to calibration based only on discharge observations, such that this leads to improved simulations of soil moisture content and discharge? A dual state and parameter Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to calibrate the hydrological model LISFLOOD for the Upper Danube. Calibration is done using discharge and remotely sensed soil moisture acquired by AMSR-E, SMOS, and ASCAT. Calibration with discharge data improves the estimation of groundwater and routing parameters. Calibration with only remotely sensed soil moisture results in an accurate identification of parameters related to land-surface processes. For the Upper Danube upstream area up to 40,000 km2, calibration on both discharge and soil moisture results in a reduction by 10-30% in the RMSE for discharge simulations, compared to calibration on discharge alone. The conclusion is that remotely sensed soil moisture holds potential for calibration of hydrological models, leading to a better simulation of soil moisture content throughout the catchment and a better simulation of discharge in upstream areas. This article was corrected on 15 SEP 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

  15. The impacts of large-scale assessment on school curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita de Cássia Silva Godoi Menegão

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work results from a doctoral research which analyzed the curriculum at the interface with the external evaluation in order to identify, describe and analyze how the subjects are positioning themselves in this context of tests, and map the changes made in the school curriculum driven by Prova Brasil and IDEB. The approach is descriptive and analytical, using documentary analysis, questionnaire and oral interviews in a sample of 55 teachers, subjects. The investigation was based on Freitas and colleagues (2012, Gimeno Sacristán (2000, Apple (2005, Sousa (2004 among others. The external evaluation has impacted the setting of the school curriculum and induced to over training for tests, thus compromising the quality of education.

  16. Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

    2017-12-01

    Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface

  17. Potential Impact of Large Scale Abstraction on the Quality of Shallow ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PRO

    Significant increase in crop production would not, however, be ... sounding) using Geonics EM34-3 and Abem SAS300C Terrameter to determine the aquifer (fresh water lens) ..... Final report on environmental impact assessment of large scale.

  18. Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

    2013-04-01

    Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

  19. Intermittent Rivers and Biodiversity. Large scale analyses between hydrology and ecology in intermittent rivers

    OpenAIRE

    Blanchard, Q.

    2014-01-01

    Intermittent rivers are characterized by a temporary interruption of their flow which can manifest in a variety of ways, as much on a spatial scale as on a temporal one. This particular aspect of intermittent river hydrology gives rise to unique ecosystems, combining both aquatic and terrestrial habitats. Neglected for a long time by scientists and once considered biologically depauperate and ecologically unimportant, these fragile habitats are nowadays acknowledged for their rendered service...

  20. Integrating an agent-based model into a large-scale hydrological model for evaluating drought management in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Wada, Y.; Burek, P.; Kahil, M.; Wood, E. F.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    California has endured record-breaking drought since winter 2011 and will likely experience more severe and persistent drought in the coming decades under changing climate. At the same time, human water management practices can also affect drought frequency and intensity, which underscores the importance of human behaviour in effective drought adaptation and mitigation. Currently, although a few large-scale hydrological and water resources models (e.g., PCR-GLOBWB) consider human water use and management practices (e.g., irrigation, reservoir operation, groundwater pumping), none of them includes the dynamic feedback between local human behaviors/decisions and the natural hydrological system. It is, therefore, vital to integrate social and behavioral dimensions into current hydrological modeling frameworks. This study applies the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach and couples it with a large-scale hydrological model (i.e., Community Water Model, CWatM) in order to have a balanced representation of social, environmental and economic factors and a more realistic representation of the bi-directional interactions and feedbacks in coupled human and natural systems. In this study, we focus on drought management in California and considers two types of agents, which are (groups of) farmers and state management authorities, and assumed that their corresponding objectives are to maximize the net crop profit and to maintain sufficient water supply, respectively. Farmers' behaviors are linked with local agricultural practices such as cropping patterns and deficit irrigation. More precisely, farmers' decisions are incorporated into CWatM across different time scales in terms of daily irrigation amount, seasonal/annual decisions on crop types and irrigated area as well as the long-term investment of irrigation infrastructure. This simulation-based optimization framework is further applied by performing different sets of scenarios to investigate and evaluate the effectiveness

  1. Large-scale hydrological simulations using the soil water assessment tool, protocol development, and application in the danube basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagliero, Liliana; Bouraoui, Fayçal; Willems, Patrick; Diels, Jan

    2014-01-01

    The Water Framework Directive of the European Union requires member states to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies. A harmonized pan-European assessment of water resources availability and quality, as affected by various management options, is necessary for a successful implementation of European environmental legislation. In this context, we developed a methodology to predict surface water flow at the pan-European scale using available datasets. Among the hydrological models available, the Soil Water Assessment Tool was selected because its characteristics make it suitable for large-scale applications with limited data requirements. This paper presents the results for the Danube pilot basin. The Danube Basin is one of the largest European watersheds, covering approximately 803,000 km and portions of 14 countries. The modeling data used included land use and management information, a detailed soil parameters map, and high-resolution climate data. The Danube Basin was divided into 4663 subwatersheds of an average size of 179 km. A modeling protocol is proposed to cope with the problems of hydrological regionalization from gauged to ungauged watersheds and overparameterization and identifiability, which are usually present during calibration. The protocol involves a cluster analysis for the determination of hydrological regions and multiobjective calibration using a combination of manual and automated calibration. The proposed protocol was successfully implemented, with the modeled discharges capturing well the overall hydrological behavior of the basin. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  2. Impact of large-scale tides on cosmological distortions via redshift-space power spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akitsu, Kazuyuki; Takada, Masahiro

    2018-03-01

    Although large-scale perturbations beyond a finite-volume survey region are not direct observables, these affect measurements of clustering statistics of small-scale (subsurvey) perturbations in large-scale structure, compared with the ensemble average, via the mode-coupling effect. In this paper we show that a large-scale tide induced by scalar perturbations causes apparent anisotropic distortions in the redshift-space power spectrum of galaxies in a way depending on an alignment between the tide, wave vector of small-scale modes and line-of-sight direction. Using the perturbation theory of structure formation, we derive a response function of the redshift-space power spectrum to large-scale tide. We then investigate the impact of large-scale tide on estimation of cosmological distances and the redshift-space distortion parameter via the measured redshift-space power spectrum for a hypothetical large-volume survey, based on the Fisher matrix formalism. To do this, we treat the large-scale tide as a signal, rather than an additional source of the statistical errors, and show that a degradation in the parameter is restored if we can employ the prior on the rms amplitude expected for the standard cold dark matter (CDM) model. We also discuss whether the large-scale tide can be constrained at an accuracy better than the CDM prediction, if the effects up to a larger wave number in the nonlinear regime can be included.

  3. User Friendly Open GIS Tool for Large Scale Data Assimilation - a Case Study of Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, P. K.

    2012-08-01

    Open source software (OSS) coding has tremendous advantages over proprietary software. These are primarily fuelled by high level programming languages (JAVA, C++, Python etc...) and open source geospatial libraries (GDAL/OGR, GEOS, GeoTools etc.). Quantum GIS (QGIS) is a popular open source GIS package, which is licensed under GNU GPL and is written in C++. It allows users to perform specialised tasks by creating plugins in C++ and Python. This research article emphasises on exploiting this capability of QGIS to build and implement plugins across multiple platforms using the easy to learn - Python programming language. In the present study, a tool has been developed to assimilate large spatio-temporal datasets such as national level gridded rainfall, temperature, topographic (digital elevation model, slope, aspect), landuse/landcover and multi-layer soil data for input into hydrological models. At present this tool has been developed for Indian sub-continent. An attempt is also made to use popular scientific and numerical libraries to create custom applications for digital inclusion. In the hydrological modelling calibration and validation are important steps which are repetitively carried out for the same study region. As such the developed tool will be user friendly and used efficiently for these repetitive processes by reducing the time required for data management and handling. Moreover, it was found that the developed tool can easily assimilate large dataset in an organised manner.

  4. Integrating SMOS brightness temperatures with a new conceptual spatially distributed hydrological model for improving flood and drought predictions at large scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostache, Renaud; Rains, Dominik; Chini, Marco; Lievens, Hans; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Matgen, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Motivated by climate change and its impact on the scarcity or excess of water in many parts of the world, several agencies and research institutions have taken initiatives in monitoring and predicting the hydrologic cycle at a global scale. Such a monitoring/prediction effort is important for understanding the vulnerability to extreme hydrological events and for providing early warnings. This can be based on an optimal combination of hydro-meteorological models and remote sensing, in which satellite measurements can be used as forcing or calibration data or for regularly updating the model states or parameters. Many advances have been made in these domains and the near future will bring new opportunities with respect to remote sensing as a result of the increasing number of spaceborn sensors enabling the large scale monitoring of water resources. Besides of these advances, there is currently a tendency to refine and further complicate physically-based hydrologic models to better capture the hydrologic processes at hand. However, this may not necessarily be beneficial for large-scale hydrology, as computational efforts are therefore increasing significantly. As a matter of fact, a novel thematic science question that is to be investigated is whether a flexible conceptual model can match the performance of a complex physically-based model for hydrologic simulations at large scale. In this context, the main objective of this study is to investigate how innovative techniques that allow for the estimation of soil moisture from satellite data can help in reducing errors and uncertainties in large scale conceptual hydro-meteorological modelling. A spatially distributed conceptual hydrologic model has been set up based on recent developments of the SUPERFLEX modelling framework. As it requires limited computational efforts, this model enables early warnings for large areas. Using as forcings the ERA-Interim public dataset and coupled with the CMEM radiative transfer model

  5. Economic and agricultural transformation through large-scale farming : impacts of large-scale farming on local economic development, household food security and the environment in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekele, M.S.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined impacts of large-scale farming in Ethiopia on local economic development, household food security, incomes, employment, and the environment. The study adopted a mixed research approach in which both qualitative and quantitative data were generated from secondary and primary

  6. Analysis of environmental impact assessment for large-scale X-ray medical equipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Jin; Pei Chengkai

    2011-01-01

    Based on an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) project, this paper elaborates the basic analysis essentials of EIA for the sales project of large-scale X-ray medical equipment, and provides the analysis procedure of environmental impact and dose estimation method under normal and accident conditions. The key points of EIA for the sales project of large-scale X-ray medical equipment include the determination of pollution factor and management limit value according to the project's actual situation, the utilization of various methods of assessment and prediction such as analogy, actual measurement and calculation to analyze, monitor, calculate and predict the pollution during normal and accident condition. (authors)

  7. The Ecological Impacts of Large-Scale Agrofuel Monoculture Production Systems in the Americas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altieri, Miguel A.

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the expansion of agrofuels in the Americas and the ecological impacts associated with the technologies used in the production of large-scale monocultures of corn and soybeans. In addition to deforestation and displacement of lands devoted to food crops due to expansion of agrofuels, the massive use of transgenic crops and…

  8. Large-scale melting and impact mixing on early-formed asteroids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greenwood, Richard; Barrat, J.-A.; Scott, Edward Robert Dalton

    Large-scale melting of asteroids and planetesimals is now known to have taken place ex-tremely early in solar system history [1]. The first-generation bodies produced by this process would have been subject to rapid collisional reprocessing, leading in most cases to fragmentation and/or accretion...... the relationship between the different groups of achondrites [3, 4]. Here we present new oxygen isotope evidence con-cerning the role of large-scale melting and subsequent impact mixing in the evolution of three important achondrite groups: the main-group pallasites, meso-siderites and HEDs....

  9. Output Control Technologies for a Large-scale PV System Considering Impacts on a Power Grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwayama, Akira

    The mega-solar demonstration project named “Verification of Grid Stabilization with Large-scale PV Power Generation systems” had been completed in March 2011 at Wakkanai, the northernmost city of Japan. The major objectives of this project were to evaluate adverse impacts of large-scale PV power generation systems connected to the power grid and develop output control technologies with integrated battery storage system. This paper describes the outline and results of this project. These results show the effectiveness of battery storage system and also proposed output control methods for a large-scale PV system to ensure stable operation of power grids. NEDO, New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization of Japan conducted this project and HEPCO, Hokkaido Electric Power Co., Inc managed the overall project.

  10. Application of Large-Scale, Multi-Resolution Watershed Modeling Framework Using the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haw Yen

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, large-scale watershed modeling has been implemented broadly in the field of water resources planning and management. Complex hydrological, sediment, and nutrient processes can be simulated by sophisticated watershed simulation models for important issues such as water resources allocation, sediment transport, and pollution control. Among commonly adopted models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT has been demonstrated to provide superior performance with a large amount of referencing databases. However, it is cumbersome to perform tedious initialization steps such as preparing inputs and developing a model with each changing targeted study area. In this study, the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS is introduced to serve as a national-scale Decision Support System (DSS to conduct challenging watershed modeling tasks. HAWQS is a web-based DSS developed and maintained by Texas A & M University, and supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Three different spatial resolutions of Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC8, HUC10, and HUC12 and three temporal scales (time steps in daily/monthly/annual are available as alternatives for general users. In addition, users can specify preferred values of model parameters instead of using the pre-defined sets. With the aid of HAWQS, users can generate a preliminarily calibrated SWAT project within a few minutes by only providing the ending HUC number of the targeted watershed and the simulation period. In the case study, HAWQS was implemented on the Illinois River Basin, USA, with graphical demonstrations and associated analytical results. Scientists and/or decision-makers can take advantage of the HAWQS framework while conducting relevant topics or policies in the future.

  11. Sparse deconvolution for the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem of impact force reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Baijie; Zhang, Xingwu; Gao, Jiawei; Liu, Ruonan; Chen, Xuefeng

    2017-01-01

    Most previous regularization methods for solving the inverse problem of force reconstruction are to minimize the l2-norm of the desired force. However, these traditional regularization methods such as Tikhonov regularization and truncated singular value decomposition, commonly fail to solve the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem in moderate computational cost. In this paper, taking into account the sparse characteristic of impact force, the idea of sparse deconvolution is first introduced to the field of impact force reconstruction and a general sparse deconvolution model of impact force is constructed. Second, a novel impact force reconstruction method based on the primal-dual interior point method (PDIPM) is proposed to solve such a large-scale sparse deconvolution model, where minimizing the l2-norm is replaced by minimizing the l1-norm. Meanwhile, the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm is used to compute the search direction of PDIPM with high computational efficiency. Finally, two experiments including the small-scale or medium-scale single impact force reconstruction and the relatively large-scale consecutive impact force reconstruction are conducted on a composite wind turbine blade and a shell structure to illustrate the advantage of PDIPM. Compared with Tikhonov regularization, PDIPM is more efficient, accurate and robust whether in the single impact force reconstruction or in the consecutive impact force reconstruction.

  12. A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

    2015-05-01

    A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

  13. The economics and environmental impacts of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decarolis, Joseph Frank

    Serious climate change mitigation aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will require a radical shift to a decarbonized energy supply. The electric power sector will be a primary target for deep reductions in CO2 emissions because electric power plants are among the largest and most manageable point sources of emissions. With respect to new capacity, wind power is currently one of the most inexpensive ways to produce electricity without CO2 emissions and it may have a significant role to play in a carbon constrained world. Yet most research in the wind industry remains focused on near term issues, while energy system models that focus on century-long time horizons undervalue wind by imposing exogenous limits on growth. This thesis fills a critical gap in the literature by taking a closer look at the cost and environmental impacts of large-scale wind. Estimates of the average cost of wind generation---now roughly 4¢/kWh---do not address the cons arising from the spatial distribution and intermittency of wind. This thesis develops a theoretical framework for assessing the intermittency cost of wind. In addition, an economic characterization of a wind system is provided in which long-distance electricity transmission, storage, and gas turbines are used to supplement variable wind power output to meet a time-varying load. With somewhat optimistic assumptions about the cost of wind turbines, the use of wind to serve 50% of demand adds ˜1--2¢/kWh to the cost of electricity, a cost comparable to that of other large-scale low carbon technologies. This thesis also explores the environmental impacts posed by large-scale wind. Though avian mortality and noise caused controversy in the early years of wind development, improved technology and exhaustive siting assessments have minimized their impact. The aesthetic valuation of wind farms can be improved significantly with better design, siting, construction, and maintenance procedures, but opposition may

  14. Technical review of large-scale hydrological models for implementation in operational flood forecasting schemes on continental level

    OpenAIRE

    KAUFFELD Anna; WETTERHALL F.; Pappenberger F.; SALAMON Peter; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2014-01-01

    The uncertainty in operational hydrological forecast systems driven with numerical weather predictions inputs are often assessed by quantifying the uncertainty from the inputs and not from the hydrological model itself. However, part of the uncertainty in modelled discharge stems from the hydrological model and some models may be more suitable than others for particular processes. A hydrological multi-model hydrological system can account for some of this uncertainty, but there exists a p...

  15. The impacts of household retrofit and domestic energy efficiency schemes: A large scale, ex post evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webber, Phil; Gouldson, Andy; Kerr, Niall

    2015-01-01

    There is widespread interest in the ability of retrofit schemes to shape domestic energy use in order to tackle fuel poverty and reduce carbon emissions. Although much has been written on the topic, there have been few large-scale ex post evaluations of the actual impacts of such schemes. We address this by assessing domestic energy use before and after the Kirklees Warm Zone (KWZ) scheme, which by fitting insulation in 51,000 homes in the 2007–2010 period is one of the largest retrofit schemes completed in the UK to date. To do this, we develop and apply a new methodology that isolates the impacts of retrofit activity from broader background trends in energy use. The results suggest that the actual impacts of the KWZ scheme have been higher than predicted, and that the scale of any performance gaps or rebound effects have been lower than has often been assumed. They also suggest that impacts on energy use in lower income areas are consistent with predictions, but that impacts in middle and higher income areas are higher than predicted. These findings support the case for the wider and/or accelerated adoption of domestic retrofit schemes in other contexts. -- Highlights: •A large scale, ex post evaluation of the impacts of a household retrofit scheme. •A new methodology to separate retrofit impacts from background trends. •Shows impacts of retrofit have been 1.2–1.7 times higher than predicted. •Impacts as predicted in lower income areas, higher in middle and upper income areas. •Findings support the case for the wider and faster adoption of domestic retrofit

  16. On a digital wireless impact-monitoring network for large-scale composite structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Shenfang; Mei, Hanfei; Qiu, Lei; Ren, Yuanqiang

    2014-01-01

    Impact, which may occur during manufacture, service or maintenance, is one of the major concerns to be monitored throughout the lifetime of aircraft composite structures. Aiming at monitoring impacts online while minimizing the weight added to the aircraft to meet the strict limitations of aerospace engineering, this paper puts forward a new digital wireless network based on miniaturized wireless digital impact-monitoring nodes developed for large-scale composite structures. In addition to investigations on the design methods of the network architecture, time synchronization and implementation method, a conflict resolution method based on the feature parameters of digital sequences is first presented to address impact localization conflicts when several nodes are arranged close together. To verify the feasibility and stability of the wireless network, experiments are performed on a complex aircraft composite wing box and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) composite wing. Experimental results show the successful design of the presented network. (paper)

  17. Structural problems of public participation in large-scale projects with environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bechmann, G.

    1989-01-01

    Four items are discussed showing that the problems involved through participation of the public in large-scale projects with environmental impact cannot be solved satisfactorily without suitable modification of the existing legal framework. The problematic items are: the status of the electric utilities as a quasi public enterprise; informal preliminary negotiations; the penetration of scientific argumentation into administrative decisions; the procedural concept. The paper discusses the fundamental issue of the problem-adequate design of the procedure and develops suggestions for a cooperative participation design. (orig./HSCH) [de

  18. Impact of climate change on large scale coastal currents of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyer, A

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available of temperature trends in the southern indian ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L14611, doi:10.1029/2007gL030380. • De Ruijter, W.P.M., van Aken, H.M., Beier, E.J., Lutjeharms, J.R.E., Matano, R.P. Schouten, M.W. 2004. eddies and dipoles around South... Madagascar: formation, pathways and large- scale impact. Deep-Sea Research I, 51, 383-400. • Lutjeharms, J. R. E. and van Ballegooyen, R. C. 1988. Anomalous upstream retroflection in the agulhas current. Science, 240, 1770-1772. • Rouault, M., Penven...

  19. Potential climatic impacts and reliability of large-scale offshore wind farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Chien; Prinn, Ronald G

    2011-01-01

    The vast availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as a potential near-zero greenhouse gas emission technology for meeting future world energy needs while addressing the climate change issue. However, in order to provide even a fraction of the estimated future energy needs, a large-scale deployment of wind turbines (several million) is required. The consequent environmental impacts, and the inherent reliability of such a large-scale usage of intermittent wind power would have to be carefully assessed, in addition to the need to lower the high current unit wind power costs. Our previous study (Wang and Prinn 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 2053) using a three-dimensional climate model suggested that a large deployment of wind turbines over land to meet about 10% of predicted world energy needs in 2100 could lead to a significant temperature increase in the lower atmosphere over the installed regions. A global-scale perturbation to the general circulation patterns as well as to the cloud and precipitation distribution was also predicted. In the later study reported here, we conducted a set of six additional model simulations using an improved climate model to further address the potential environmental and intermittency issues of large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines for differing installation areas and spatial densities. In contrast to the previous land installation results, the offshore wind turbine installations are found to cause a surface cooling over the installed offshore regions. This cooling is due principally to the enhanced latent heat flux from the sea surface to lower atmosphere, driven by an increase in turbulent mixing caused by the wind turbines which was not entirely offset by the concurrent reduction of mean wind kinetic energy. We found that the perturbation of the large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines to the global climate is relatively small compared to the case of land

  20. Socio-cultural impacts of large-scale cruise tourism in Souq Mutrah, Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Gutberlet

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The following paper explores socio-cultural impacts of large-scale cruise liner tourism on the traditional bazaar (souq in the district of Mutrah. The souq is located opposite the port in the Omani capital Muscat. Large-scale cruise tourism in Muscat started only in 2004 and has increased in scale and numbers in the past years. 24 cruise vessels with around 7600 passengers arrived in Muscat in 2005. Seven years later 135 cruise liners carrying 257,000 tourists docked in Muscat. Due to this dramatic rise of international cruise ships, the socio-cultural impacts have increased for local residents, shop vendors/owners and tourists alike. To capture those socio-cultural impacts on Souq Mutrah, a survey of cruise tourists was conducted by a questionnaire. In addition, the researcher used participatory observation, counting, and in-depth interviews with different stakeholders of the local community and different types of tourists during the cruise seasons 2012/13 and 2013/14. Moreover, content analysis of statistics and local media publications were used. Results indicate that the souq has become “the core of a tourist bubble”, where crowding is a major problem and local residents avoid the place. The social carrying capacity of the souq has been reached. Omani vendors are leaving their businesses and renting their shops out to expatriates. Since contemporary cruise tourists are low spenders, expatriate shop sellers have become more aggressive.

  1. Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

  2. Water consumption and allocation strategies along the river oases of Tarim River based on large-scale hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yang; Disse, Markus; Yu, Ruide

    2016-04-01

    With the mainstream of 1,321km and located in an arid area in northwest China, the Tarim River is China's longest inland river. The Tarim basin on the northern edge of the Taklamakan desert is an extremely arid region. In this region, agricultural water consumption and allocation management are crucial to address the conflicts among irrigation water users from upstream to downstream. Since 2011, the German Ministry of Science and Education BMBF established the Sino-German SuMaRiO project, for the sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River. The project aims to contribute to a sustainable land management which explicitly takes into account ecosystem functions and ecosystem services. SuMaRiO will identify realizable management strategies, considering social, economic and ecological criteria. This will have positive effects for nearly 10 million inhabitants of different ethnic groups. The modelling of water consumption and allocation strategies is a core block in the SuMaRiO cluster. A large-scale hydrological model (MIKE HYDRO Basin) was established for the purpose of sustainable agricultural water management in the main stem Tarim River. MIKE HYDRO Basin is an integrated, multipurpose, map-based decision support tool for river basin analysis, planning and management. It provides detailed simulation results concerning water resources and land use in the catchment areas of the river. Calibration data and future predictions based on large amount of data was acquired. The results of model calibration indicated a close correlation between simulated and observed values. Scenarios with the change on irrigation strategies and land use distributions were investigated. Irrigation scenarios revealed that the available irrigation water has significant and varying effects on the yields of different crops. Irrigation water saving could reach up to 40% in the water-saving irrigation scenario. Land use scenarios illustrated that an increase of farmland area in the

  3. Environmental Impacts From the Installation and Operation of Large-scale Solar Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fthenakis, V.; Turney, Damon

    2011-04-23

    Large-scale solar power plants are being developed at a rapid rate, and are setting up to use thousands or millions of acres of land globally. The environmental issues related to the installation and operation phases of such facilities have not, so far, been addressed comprehensively in the literature. Here we identify and appraise 32 impacts from these phases, under the themes of land use intensity, human health and well-being, plant and animal life, geohydrological resources, and climate change. Our appraisals assume that electricity generated by new solar power facilities will displace electricity from traditional U.S. generation technologies. Altogether we find 22 of the considered 32 impacts to be beneficial. Of the remaining 10 impacts, 4 are neutral, and 6 require further research before they can be appraised. None of the impacts are negative relative to traditional power generation. We rank the impacts in terms of priority, and find all the high-priority impacts to be beneficial. In quantitative terms, large-scale solar power plants occupy the same or less land per kW h than coal power plant life cycles. Removal of forests to make space for solar power causes CO{sub 2} emissions as high as 36 g CO{sub 2} kW h{sup -1}, which is a significant contribution to the life cycle CO{sub 2} emissions of solar power, but is still low compared to CO{sub 2} emissions from coal-based electricity that are about 1100 g CO{sub 2} kW h{sup -1}.

  4. Socioeconomic impacts of large-scale developments: implications for high-level nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.; Hamm, R.R.

    1983-01-01

    High-level nuclear waste repositories will likely be located in sparsely settled rural areas in the US. These projects will significantly affect the economic, demographic, public service, fiscal, and social (the socioeconomic) dimensions of those rural areas. The impacts and means of mitigating them thus require careful analysis. This paper examines some of the potential socioeconomic impacts likely to occur in rural areas as a result of repository siting and development, and it describes some of the characteristics of mitigation programs that are likely to be necessary, if the impacts are to be addressed. Both (1) standard impacts, those resulting from the fact that, like many other large-scale developments, repositories will involve a substantial number of new workers and residents (relative to the size of existing communities), and (2) special impacts, those resulting from the fact that repositories store radioactive materials, are examined. The discussion indicates that economic, demographic, public service, fiscal, and social impacts (standard and special) of these repositories will be substantial and problematic in many cases. Unless the impacts are effectively addressed with carefully planned and well financed mitigation efforts that insure that high-quality planning information is provided to local residents, and that local residents are involved in impact planning and management throughout the siting and development process, repository siting is unlikely to be effectively and equitably achieved. 44 references

  5. Impacts of large-scale offshore wind farm integration on power systems through VSC-HVDC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Hongzhi; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    The potential of offshore wind energy has been commonly recognized and explored globally. Many countries have implemented and planned offshore wind farms to meet their increasing electricity demands and public environmental appeals, especially in Europe. With relatively less space limitation......, an offshore wind farm could have a capacity rating to hundreds of MWs or even GWs that is large enough to compete with conventional power plants. Thus the impacts of a large offshore wind farm on power system operation and security should be thoroughly studied and understood. This paper investigates...... the impacts of integrating a large-scale offshore wind farm into the transmission system of a power grid through VSC-HVDC connection. The concerns are focused on steady-state voltage stability, dynamic voltage stability and transient angle stability. Simulation results based on an exemplary power system...

  6. Large-scale fluctuations in the cosmic ionizing background: the impact of beamed source emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, Teresita; Pontzen, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    When modelling the ionization of gas in the intergalactic medium after reionization, it is standard practice to assume a uniform radiation background. This assumption is not always appropriate; models with radiative transfer show that large-scale ionization rate fluctuations can have an observable impact on statistics of the Lyman α forest. We extend such calculations to include beaming of sources, which has previously been neglected but which is expected to be important if quasars dominate the ionizing photon budget. Beaming has two effects: first, the physical number density of ionizing sources is enhanced relative to that directly observed; and secondly, the radiative transfer itself is altered. We calculate both effects in a hard-edged beaming model where each source has a random orientation, using an equilibrium Boltzmann hierarchy in terms of spherical harmonics. By studying the statistical properties of the resulting ionization rate and H I density fields at redshift z ∼ 2.3, we find that the two effects partially cancel each other; combined, they constitute a maximum 5 per cent correction to the power spectrum P_{H I}(k) at k = 0.04 h Mpc-1. On very large scales (k effects of beaming should be considered when interpreting future observational data sets.

  7. The impact of large scale ionospheric structure on radio occultation retrievals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Mannucci

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We study the impact of large-scale ionospheric structure on the accuracy of radio occultation (RO retrievals. We use a climatological model of the ionosphere as well as an ionospheric data assimilation model to compare quiet and geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The presence of ionospheric electron density gradients during disturbed conditions increases the physical separation of the two GPS frequencies as the GPS signal traverses the ionosphere and atmosphere. We analyze this effect in detail using ray-tracing and a full geophysical retrieval system. During quiet conditions, our results are similar to previously published studies. The impact of a major ionospheric storm is analyzed using data from the 30 October 2003 "Halloween" superstorm period. At 40 km altitude, the refractivity bias under disturbed conditions is approximately three times larger than quiet time. These results suggest the need for ionospheric monitoring as part of an RO-based climate observation strategy. We find that even during quiet conditions, the magnitude of retrieval bias depends critically on assumed ionospheric electron density structure, which may explain variations in previously published bias estimates that use a variety of assumptions regarding large scale ionospheric structure. We quantify the impact of spacecraft orbit altitude on the magnitude of bending angle and retrieval error. Satellites in higher altitude orbits (700+ km tend to have lower residual biases due to the tendency of the residual bending to cancel between the top and bottomside ionosphere. Another factor affecting accuracy is the commonly-used assumption that refractive index is unity at the receiver. We conclude with remarks on the implications of this study for long-term climate monitoring using RO.

  8. Economic and fiscal impacts of large-scale development projects: implications for nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leistritz, F.L.; Murdock, S.H.; Texas A and M Univ., College Station)

    1982-01-01

    This paper deals with the local economic and fiscal implications of siting high-level nuclear waste repositories in rural areas. The economic and fiscal effects of repository development fall into two categories: (1) standard impacts similar to those that would be associated with developing any large-scale industrial facility in an isolated area; (2) special impacts that result from the hazardous nature of the nuclear materials stored and from federal ownership of the facility. Standard economic and fiscal impacts include employment effects (direct and secondary), local income changes, alterations in community price structures, effects on community services, and changes in revenues and costs for local jurisdictions. Special impacts include the possibility of diminished activity in other basic economic sectors, negative effects on the area's long-term growth prospects and a consequent dampening of investment in the local trade an service sectors, additional costs for local jurisdictions (e.g., for preparing evacuation plans), and limited local tax revenues resulting from the tax-exempt status of the facility. These special effects are difficult to quantify and require additional analysis. 47 references, 1 figure, 4 tables

  9. Planetary Structures And Simulations Of Large-scale Impacts On Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swift, Damian; El-Dasher, B.

    2009-09-01

    The impact of large meteroids is a possible cause for isolated orogeny on bodies devoid of tectonic activity. On Mars, there is a significant, but not perfect, correlation between large, isolated volcanoes and antipodal impact craters. On Mercury and the Moon, brecciated terrain and other unusual surface features can be found at the antipodes of large impact sites. On Earth, there is a moderate correlation between long-lived mantle hotspots at opposite sides of the planet, with meteoroid impact suggested as a possible cause. If induced by impacts, the mechanisms of orogeny and volcanism thus appear to vary between these bodies, presumably because of differences in internal structure. Continuum mechanics (hydrocode) simulations have been used to investigate the response of planetary bodies to impacts, requiring assumptions about the structure of the body: its composition and temperature profile, and the constitutive properties (equation of state, strength, viscosity) of the components. We are able to predict theoretically and test experimentally the constitutive properties of matter under planetary conditions, with reasonable accuracy. To provide a reference series of simulations, we have constructed self-consistent planetary structures using simplified compositions (Fe core and basalt-like mantle), which turn out to agree surprisingly well with the moments of inertia. We have performed simulations of large-scale impacts, studying the transmission of energy to the antipodes. For Mars, significant antipodal heating to depths of a few tens of kilometers was predicted from compression waves transmitted through the mantle. Such heating is a mechanism for volcanism on Mars, possibly in conjunction with crustal cracking induced by surface waves. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  10. Hydrologic test plans for large-scale, multiple-well tests in support of site characterization at Hanford, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, P.M.; Stone, R.; Lu, A.H.

    1985-01-01

    The Basalt Waste Isolation Project is preparing plans for tests and has begun work on some tests that will provide the data necessary for the hydrogeologic characterization of a site located on a United States government reservation at Hanford, Washington. This site is being considered for the Nation's first geologic repository of high level nuclear waste. Hydrogeologic characterization of this site requires several lines of investigation which include: surface-based small-scale tests, testing performed at depth from an exploratory shaft, geochemistry investigations, regional studies, and site-specific investigations using large-scale, multiple-well hydraulic tests. The large-scale multiple-well tests are planned for several locations in and around the site. These tests are being designed to provide estimates of hydraulic parameter values of the geologic media, chemical properties of the groundwater, and hydrogeologic boundary conditions at a scale appropriate for evaluating repository performance with respect to potential radionuclide transport

  11. Semi-Automated Air-Coupled Impact-Echo Method for Large-Scale Parkade Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler Epp

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Structural Health Monitoring (SHM has moved to data-dense systems, utilizing numerous sensor types to monitor infrastructure, such as bridges and dams, more regularly. One of the issues faced in this endeavour is the scale of the inspected structures and the time it takes to carry out testing. Installing automated systems that can provide measurements in a timely manner is one way of overcoming these obstacles. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN application that determines intact and damaged locations from a small training sample of impact-echo data, using air-coupled microphones from a reinforced concrete beam in lab conditions and data collected from a field experiment in a parking garage. The impact-echo testing in the field is carried out in a semi-autonomous manner to expedite the front end of the in situ damage detection testing. The use of an ANN removes the need for a user-defined cutoff value for the classification of intact and damaged locations when a least-square distance approach is used. It is postulated that this may contribute significantly to testing time reduction when monitoring large-scale civil Reinforced Concrete (RC structures.

  12. Large-scale sulfolane-impacted soil remediation at a gas plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavoie, G.; Rockwell, K. [Biogenie Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    A large-scale sulfolane-impacted soil remediation project at a gas plant in central Alberta was discussed. The plant was operational from the 1960s to present and the former operation involved the Sulfinol process which resulted in groundwater contamination. In 2005, the client wanted to address the sources area. The Sulfinol process has been used since the 1960s to remove hydrogen sulfide and other corrosive gases from natural gas streams. Sulfinol uses sulfolane and diisopropanolamine. Sulfolane is toxic, non-volatile, and water soluble. The presentation also addressed the remediation objectives and an additional site assessment that was conducted to better delineate the sulfolane and sulphur plume, as well as metals. The findings of the ESA and site specific challenges were presented. These challenges included: plant operation concerns; numerous overhead, surface, and underground structures; large volume of impacted material, limited space available on site; several types of contaminants; and time required to perform the overall work. Next, the sulfolane remediation strategy was discussed including advantages and results of the investigation. Last, the results of the project were presented. It was found that there were no recordable safety incidents and that all remedial objectives were achieved. tabs., figs.

  13. The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop yields in IP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capa Morocho, Mirian; Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz Ramos, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Large-scale circulations patterns (ENSO, NAO) have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather, and therefore on crop yield over many parts of the world(Garnett and Khandekar, 1992; Aasa et al., 2004; Rozas and Garcia-Gonzalez, 2012). In this study, we analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns and regional climate on the principal components of maize yield variability in Iberian Peninsula (IP) using reanalysis datasets. Additionally, we investigate the modulation of these relationships by multidecadal patterns. This study is performed analyzing long time series of maize yield, only climate dependent, computed with the crop model CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5). To simulate yields, reanalysis daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. The reanalysis climate data were obtained from National Center for Environmental Prediction (20th Century and NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data server (ERA 40 and ERA Interim). Simulations were run at five locations: Lugo (northwestern), Lerida (NE), Madrid (central), Albacete (southeastern) and Córdoba (S IP) (Gabaldón et al., 2013). From these time series standardized anomalies were calculated. Afterwards, time series were time filtered to focus on the interannual-to-multiannual variability, splitting up in two components: low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) time scales. The principal components of HF yield anomalies in IP were compared with a set of documented patterns. These relationships were compared with multidecadal patterns, as Atlanctic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillations (IPO). The results of this study have important implications in crop forecasting. In this way, it may have a positive impact on both public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance

  14. Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wang

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1 °C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1 °C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure

  15. Hierarchical fiber-optic-based sensing system: impact damage monitoring of large-scale CFRP structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minakuchi, Shu; Banshoya, Hidehiko; Takeda, Nobuo; Tsukamoto, Haruka

    2011-01-01

    This study proposes a novel fiber-optic-based hierarchical sensing concept for monitoring randomly induced damage in large-scale composite structures. In a hierarchical system, several kinds of specialized devices are hierarchically combined to form a sensing network. Specifically, numerous three-dimensionally structured sensor devices are distributed throughout the whole structural area and connected with an optical fiber network through transducing mechanisms. The distributed devices detect damage, and the fiber-optic network gathers the damage signals and transmits the information to a measuring instrument. This study began by discussing the basic concept of a hierarchical sensing system through comparison with existing fiber-optic-based systems, and an impact damage detection system was then proposed to validate the new concept. The sensor devices were developed based on comparative vacuum monitoring (CVM), and Brillouin-based distributed strain measurement was utilized to identify damaged areas. Verification tests were conducted step-by-step, beginning with a basic test using a single sensor unit, and, finally, the proposed monitoring system was successfully verified using a carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) fuselage demonstrator. It was clearly confirmed that the hierarchical system has better repairability, higher robustness, and a wider monitorable area compared to existing systems

  16. Public participation in the licensing of large-scale projects with environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    As a rule, public participation in licensing and planning procedures for large-scale projects with environmental impact is as controversial as the projects themselves. Against this background, an interdisciplinary examination of several 'cases' of public participation in administrative procedures with varying legal forms is being conducted in a joint research project run by the Department for Applied Systems Analysis (Karlsruher Nuclear Centre) and the Research Institute for Public Administration at the College for Administrative Sciences in Speyer. The actual course of events and the practical experience of the groups involved (authorities, applicants, objectors, experts) are related to the applicable legal arrangements for public participation. The question to be answered is: which expected and unexpected functions do the procedures actually fulfill and which not. Proposals for the amendment of legal policy could be developed upon the foundation of such a diagnosis. The report contains the results of the 'pilot study' on public participation in the licensing of the nuclear power plant GKN-2 in Neckarwestheim and further contributions on the issue of 'public participation', presented within the framework of a research colloquium at the School for Nuclear Technology/Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Centre. (orig.) [de

  17. Impact of Large Scale Energy Efficiency Programs On Consumer Tariffs and Utility Finances in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abhyankar, Nikit; Phadke, Amol

    2011-01-20

    Large-scale EE programs would modestly increase tariffs but reduce consumers' electricity bills significantly. However, the primary benefit of EE programs is a significant reduction in power shortages, which might make these programs politically acceptable even if tariffs increase. To increase political support, utilities could pursue programs that would result in minimal tariff increases. This can be achieved in four ways: (a) focus only on low-cost programs (such as replacing electric water heaters with gas water heaters); (b) sell power conserved through the EE program to the market at a price higher than the cost of peak power purchase; (c) focus on programs where a partial utility subsidy of incremental capital cost might work and (d) increase the number of participant consumers by offering a basket of EE programs to fit all consumer subcategories and tariff tiers. Large scale EE programs can result in consistently negative cash flows and significantly erode the utility's overall profitability. In case the utility is facing shortages, the cash flow is very sensitive to the marginal tariff of the unmet demand. This will have an important bearing on the choice of EE programs in Indian states where low-paying rural and agricultural consumers form the majority of the unmet demand. These findings clearly call for a flexible, sustainable solution to the cash-flow management issue. One option is to include a mechanism like FAC in the utility incentive mechanism. Another sustainable solution might be to have the net program cost and revenue loss built into utility's revenue requirement and thus into consumer tariffs up front. However, the latter approach requires institutionalization of EE as a resource. The utility incentive mechanisms would be able to address the utility disincentive of forgone long-run return but have a minor impact on consumer benefits. Fundamentally, providing incentives for EE programs to make them comparable to supply

  18. Improved large-scale hydrological modelling through the assimilation of streamflow and downscaled satellite soil moisture observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lopez, Patricia Lopez; Wanders, Niko; Schellekens, Jaap; Renzullo, Luigi J.; Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2016-01-01

    The coarse spatial resolution of global hydrological models (typically > 0.25◦ ) limits their ability to resolve key water balance processes for many river basins and thus compromises their suitability for water resources management, especially when compared to locally tuned river models. A possible

  19. Comparing large-scale hydrological model predictions with observed streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: effects of climate and groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad Safeeq; Guillaume S. Mauger; Gordon E. Grant; Ivan Arismendi; Alan F. Hamlet; Se-Yeun Lee

    2014-01-01

    Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (1/16°) and fine (1/120°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In...

  20. Assessing the Performance of Large Scale Green Roofs and Their Impact on the Urban Microclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smalls-Mantey, L.; Foti, R.; Montalto, F. A.

    2015-12-01

    In ultra-urban environments green roofs offer a feasible solution to add green infrastructure (GI) in neighborhoods where space is limited. Green roofs offer the typical advantages of urban GI such as stormwater reduction and management while providing direct benefits to the buildings on which they are installed through thermal protection and mitigation of temperature fluctuations. At 6.8 acres, the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center (JJCC) in New York City, hosts the second largest green roof in the United States. Since its installation in August 2013, the Sustainable Water Resource (SWRE) Laboratory at Drexel University has monitored the climate on and around the green roof by means of four weather stations situated on various roof and ground locations. Using two years of fine scale climatic data collected at the JJCC, this study explores the energy balance of a large scale green roof system. Temperature, radiation, evapotranspiration and wind profiles pre- and post- installation of the JJCC green roof were analyzed and compared across monitored locations, with the goal of identifying the impact of the green roof on the building and urban micro-climate. Our findings indicate that the presence of the green roof, not only altered the climatic conditions above the JJCC, but also had a measurable impact on the climatic profile of the areas immediately surrounding it. Furthermore, as a result of the mitigation of roof temperature fluctuations and of the cooling provided during warmer months, an improvement of the building thermal efficiency was contextually observed. Such findings support the installation of GI as an effective practice in urban settings and important in the discussion of key issues including energy conservation measures, carbon emission reductions and the mitigation of urban heat islands.

  1. Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. R. Mateo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Global-scale river models (GRMs are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

  2. Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo, Cherry May R.; Yamazaki, Dai; Kim, Hyungjun; Champathong, Adisorn; Vaze, Jai; Oki, Taikan

    2017-10-01

    Global-scale river models (GRMs) are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC) is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC) is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

  3. Potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale herbicide-tolerant GM oilseed rape crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fellous Marc

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available The Biomolecular Engineering Commission considers that the knowledge acquired in the last three years has provided significant information in reply to the points raised in its review dated 16 February 2001. The Commission has studied the potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale herbicidetolerantGMoilseed rape crops, making a distinction between direct and indirect impacts. Direct impacts stem from the intrinsic properties of herbicide-tolerant GM oilseed rape crops whereas indirect impacts result from practices associated with the farming of these crops. The Commission considers that, in the absence of the use of the herbicide in question in and outside of farmed land, there is no direct environmental risk (development of invasive crops per se associated with the presence of a herbicide-tolerance gene in oilseed rape (or related species. Nevertheless, since the interest of these tolerant crops lies in the use of the herbicide in question, indirect effects, to varying extents, have been identified and must be taken into account: the use of the herbicide in question, applied to agricultural fields containing the herbicide-tolerant crop could lead to an increase in oilseed rape volunteer populations in crop rotations; the selective pressure exerted by non-specific herbicides (to which the crops have been rendered tolerant may be very high in cases of continuous and uncontrolled use of these herbicides, and may result in the persistence of rare events such as the reproduction of fertile interspecies hybrids; the change to the range of herbicides used should be conveyed by more effective weed control and, like any change in farming practices, induce indirect effects on the agri-ecosystem, particularly in terms of changes to weeds and the associated animal life. Accordingly, the Biomolecular Engineering Commission recommends a global approach in terms of the large-scale farming of herbicide-tolerant crops that: accounts for the

  4. USER FRIENDLY OPEN GIS TOOL FOR LARGE SCALE DATA ASSIMILATION – A CASE STUDY OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Gupta

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Open source software (OSS coding has tremendous advantages over proprietary software. These are primarily fuelled by high level programming languages (JAVA, C++, Python etc... and open source geospatial libraries (GDAL/OGR, GEOS, GeoTools etc.. Quantum GIS (QGIS is a popular open source GIS package, which is licensed under GNU GPL and is written in C++. It allows users to perform specialised tasks by creating plugins in C++ and Python. This research article emphasises on exploiting this capability of QGIS to build and implement plugins across multiple platforms using the easy to learn – Python programming language. In the present study, a tool has been developed to assimilate large spatio-temporal datasets such as national level gridded rainfall, temperature, topographic (digital elevation model, slope, aspect, landuse/landcover and multi-layer soil data for input into hydrological models. At present this tool has been developed for Indian sub-continent. An attempt is also made to use popular scientific and numerical libraries to create custom applications for digital inclusion. In the hydrological modelling calibration and validation are important steps which are repetitively carried out for the same study region. As such the developed tool will be user friendly and used efficiently for these repetitive processes by reducing the time required for data management and handling. Moreover, it was found that the developed tool can easily assimilate large dataset in an organised manner.

  5. Meteorological impact assessment of possible large scale irrigation in Southwest Saudi Arabia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maat, ter H.W.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Ohba, R.; Ueda, H.; Bisselink, B.; Bauer, T.

    2006-01-01

    On continental to regional scales feedbacks between landuse and landcover change and climate have been widely documented over the past 10¿15 years. In the present study we explore the possibility that also vegetation changes over much smaller areas may affect local precipitation regimes. Large scale

  6. Improved Large-Scale Inundation Modelling by 1D-2D Coupling and Consideration of Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Processes - a Case Study in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoch, J. M.; Bierkens, M. F.; Van Beek, R.; Winsemius, H.; Haag, A.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the dynamics of fluvial floods is paramount to accurate flood hazard and risk modeling. Currently, economic losses due to flooding constitute about one third of all damage resulting from natural hazards. Given future projections of climate change, the anticipated increase in the World's population and the associated implications, sound knowledge of flood hazard and related risk is crucial. Fluvial floods are cross-border phenomena that need to be addressed accordingly. Yet, only few studies model floods at the large-scale which is preferable to tiling the output of small-scale models. Most models cannot realistically model flood wave propagation due to a lack of either detailed channel and floodplain geometry or the absence of hydrologic processes. This study aims to develop a large-scale modeling tool that accounts for both hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes, to find and understand possible sources of errors and improvements and to assess how the added hydrodynamics affect flood wave propagation. Flood wave propagation is simulated by DELFT3D-FM (FM), a hydrodynamic model using a flexible mesh to schematize the study area. It is coupled to PCR-GLOBWB (PCR), a macro-scale hydrological model, that has its own simpler 1D routing scheme (DynRout) which has already been used for global inundation modeling and flood risk assessments (GLOFRIS; Winsemius et al., 2013). A number of model set-ups are compared and benchmarked for the simulation period 1986-1996: (0) PCR with DynRout; (1) using a FM 2D flexible mesh forced with PCR output and (2) as in (1) but discriminating between 1D channels and 2D floodplains, and, for comparison, (3) and (4) the same set-ups as (1) and (2) but forced with observed GRDC discharge values. Outputs are subsequently validated against observed GRDC data at Óbidos and flood extent maps from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. The present research constitutes a first step into a globally applicable approach to fully couple

  7. North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

  8. Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscal...

  9. Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we

  10. Quantitative analysis on the environmental impact of large-scale water transfer project on water resource area in a changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. H. Yan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The interbasin long-distance water transfer project is key support for the reasonable allocation of water resources in a large-scale area, which can optimize the spatio-temporal change of water resources to secure the amount of water available. Large-scale water transfer projects have a deep influence on ecosystems; besides, global climate change causes uncertainty and additive effect of the environmental impact of water transfer projects. Therefore, how to assess the ecological and environmental impact of megaprojects in both construction and operation phases has triggered a lot of attention. The water-output area of the western route of China's South-North Water Transfer Project was taken as the study area of the present article. According to relevant evaluation principles and on the basis of background analysis, we identified the influencing factors and established the diagnostic index system. The climate-hydrology-ecology coupled simulation model was used to simulate and predict ecological and environmental responses of the water resource area in a changing environment. The emphasis of impact evaluation was placed on the reservoir construction and operation scheduling, representative river corridors and wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment below the dam sites. In the end, an overall evaluation of the comprehensive influence of the project was conducted. The research results were as follows: the environmental impacts of the western route project in the water resource area were concentrated on two aspects: the permanent destruction of vegetation during the phase of dam construction and river impoundment, and the significant influence on the hydrological situation of natural river corridor after the implementation of water extraction. The impact on local climate, vegetation ecology, typical wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment of river basins below the dam sites was small.

  11. Quantitative analysis on the environmental impact of large-scale water transfer project on water resource area in a changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, D. H.; Wang, H.; Li, H. H.; Wang, G.; Qin, T. L.; Wang, D. Y.; Wang, L. H.

    2012-08-01

    The interbasin long-distance water transfer project is key support for the reasonable allocation of water resources in a large-scale area, which can optimize the spatio-temporal change of water resources to secure the amount of water available. Large-scale water transfer projects have a deep influence on ecosystems; besides, global climate change causes uncertainty and additive effect of the environmental impact of water transfer projects. Therefore, how to assess the ecological and environmental impact of megaprojects in both construction and operation phases has triggered a lot of attention. The water-output area of the western route of China's South-North Water Transfer Project was taken as the study area of the present article. According to relevant evaluation principles and on the basis of background analysis, we identified the influencing factors and established the diagnostic index system. The climate-hydrology-ecology coupled simulation model was used to simulate and predict ecological and environmental responses of the water resource area in a changing environment. The emphasis of impact evaluation was placed on the reservoir construction and operation scheduling, representative river corridors and wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment below the dam sites. In the end, an overall evaluation of the comprehensive influence of the project was conducted. The research results were as follows: the environmental impacts of the western route project in the water resource area were concentrated on two aspects: the permanent destruction of vegetation during the phase of dam construction and river impoundment, and the significant influence on the hydrological situation of natural river corridor after the implementation of water extraction. The impact on local climate, vegetation ecology, typical wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment of river basins below the dam sites was small.

  12. Quantifying the Impacts of Large Scale Integration of Renewables in Indian Power Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.; Mishra, T.; Banerjee, R.

    2017-12-01

    India's power sector is responsible for nearly 37 percent of India's greenhouse gas emissions. For a fast emerging economy like India whose population and energy consumption are poised to rise rapidly in the coming decades, renewable energy can play a vital role in decarbonizing power sector. In this context, India has targeted 33-35 percent emission intensity reduction (with respect to 2005 levels) along with large scale renewable energy targets (100GW solar, 60GW wind, and 10GW biomass energy by 2022) in INDCs submitted at Paris agreement. But large scale integration of renewable energy is a complex process which faces a number of problems like capital intensiveness, matching intermittent loads with least storage capacity and reliability. In this context, this study attempts to assess the technical feasibility of integrating renewables into Indian electricity mix by 2022 and analyze its implications on power sector operations. This study uses TIMES, a bottom up energy optimization model with unit commitment and dispatch features. We model coal and gas fired units discretely with region-wise representation of wind and solar resources. The dispatch features are used for operational analysis of power plant units under ramp rate and minimum generation constraints. The study analyzes India's electricity sector transition for the year 2022 with three scenarios. The base case scenario (no RE addition) along with INDC scenario (with 100GW solar, 60GW wind, 10GW biomass) and low RE scenario (50GW solar, 30GW wind) have been created to analyze the implications of large scale integration of variable renewable energy. The results provide us insights on trade-offs involved in achieving mitigation targets and investment decisions involved. The study also examines operational reliability and flexibility requirements of the system for integrating renewables.

  13. Research on the impacts of large-scale electric vehicles integration into power grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Chuankun; Zhang, Jian

    2018-06-01

    Because of its special energy driving mode, electric vehicles can improve the efficiency of energy utilization and reduce the pollution to the environment, which is being paid more and more attention. But the charging behavior of electric vehicles is random and intermittent. If the electric vehicle is disordered charging in a large scale, it causes great pressure on the structure and operation of the power grid and affects the safety and economic operation of the power grid. With the development of V2G technology in electric vehicle, the study of the charging and discharging characteristics of electric vehicles is of great significance for improving the safe operation of the power grid and the efficiency of energy utilization.

  14. The large-scale integration of wind generation: Impacts on price, reliability and dispatchable conventional suppliers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCormack, John; Hollis, Aidan; Zareipour, Hamidreza; Rosehart, William

    2010-01-01

    This work examines the effects of large-scale integration of wind powered electricity generation in a deregulated energy-only market on loads (in terms of electricity prices and supply reliability) and dispatchable conventional power suppliers. Hourly models of wind generation time series, load and resultant residual demand are created. From these a non-chronological residual demand duration curve is developed that is combined with a probabilistic model of dispatchable conventional generator availability, a model of an energy-only market with a price cap, and a model of generator costs and dispatch behavior. A number of simulations are performed to evaluate the effect on electricity prices, overall reliability of supply, the ability of a dominant supplier acting strategically to profitably withhold supplies, and the fixed cost recovery of dispatchable conventional power suppliers at different levels of wind generation penetration. Medium and long term responses of the market and/or regulator in the long term are discussed.

  15. From efficacy research to large-scale impact on undernutrition: the role of organizational cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, David; Pelto, Gretel

    2013-11-01

    Undernutrition in low-income countries is receiving unprecedented attention at global and national levels due to the convergence of many forces, including strong evidence concerning its magnitude, consequences, and potential solutions and effective advocacy by many organizations. The translation of this attention into large-scale reductions in undernutrition at the country level requires the alignment and support of many organizations in the development and implementation of a coherent policy agenda for nutrition, including the strengthening of operational and strategic capacities and a supportive research agenda. However, many countries experience difficulties achieving such alignment. This article uses the concept of organizational culture to better understand some of the reasons for these difficulties. This concept is applied to the constellation of organizations that make up the "National Nutrition Network" in a given country and some of the individual organizations within that network, including academic institutions that conduct research on undernutrition. We illustrate this concept through a case study involving a middle-income country. We conclude that efforts to align organizations in support of coherent nutrition agendas should do the following: 1) make intentional and sustained efforts to foster common understanding, shared learning, and socialization of new members and other elements of a shared culture among partners; 2) seek a way to frame problems and solutions in a fashion that enables individual organizations to secure some of their particular interests by joining the effort; and 3) not only advocate on the importance of nutrition but also insist that high-level officials hold organizations accountable for aligning in support of common-interest solutions (through some elements of a common culture) that can be effective and appropriate in the national context. We further conclude that a culture change is needed within academic departments if the

  16. Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucht Wolfgang

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO2 growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP and heterotrophic respiration (Rh during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release, was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. Results We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO2 flux. Conclusion Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.

  17. Coupling a basin erosion and river sediment transport model into a large scale hydrological model: an application in the Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buarque, D. C.; Collischonn, W.; Paiva, R. C. D.

    2012-04-01

    This study presents the first application and preliminary results of the large scale hydrodynamic/hydrological model MGB-IPH with a new module to predict the spatial distribution of the basin erosion and river sediment transport in a daily time step. The MGB-IPH is a large-scale, distributed and process based hydrological model that uses a catchment based discretization and the Hydrological Response Units (HRU) approach. It uses physical based equations to simulate the hydrological processes, such as the Penman Monteith model for evapotranspiration, and uses the Muskingum Cunge approach and a full 1D hydrodynamic model for river routing; including backwater effects and seasonal flooding. The sediment module of the MGB-IPH model is divided into two components: 1) prediction of erosion over the basin and sediment yield to river network; 2) sediment transport along the river channels. Both MGB-IPH and the sediment module use GIS tools to display relevant maps and to extract parameters from SRTM DEM (a 15" resolution was adopted). Using the catchment discretization the sediment module applies the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation to predict soil loss from each HRU considering three sediment classes defined according to the soil texture: sand, silt and clay. The effects of topography on soil erosion are estimated by a two-dimensional slope length (LS) factor which using the contributing area approach and a local slope steepness (S), both estimated for each DEM pixel using GIS algorithms. The amount of sediment releasing to the catchment river reach in each day is calculated using a linear reservoir. Once the sediment reaches the river they are transported into the river channel using an advection equation for silt and clay and a sediment continuity equation for sand. A sediment balance based on the Yang sediment transport capacity, allowing to compute the amount of erosion and deposition along the rivers, is performed for sand particles as bed load, whilst no

  18. Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

  19. Impact of Data Placement on Resilience in Large-Scale Object Storage Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carns, Philip; Harms, Kevin; Jenkins, John; Mubarak, Misbah; Ross, Robert; Carothers, Christopher

    2016-05-02

    Distributed object storage architectures have become the de facto standard for high-performance storage in big data, cloud, and HPC computing. Object storage deployments using commodity hardware to reduce costs often employ object replication as a method to achieve data resilience. Repairing object replicas after failure is a daunting task for systems with thousands of servers and billions of objects, however, and it is increasingly difficult to evaluate such scenarios at scale on realworld systems. Resilience and availability are both compromised if objects are not repaired in a timely manner. In this work we leverage a high-fidelity discrete-event simulation model to investigate replica reconstruction on large-scale object storage systems with thousands of servers, billions of objects, and petabytes of data. We evaluate the behavior of CRUSH, a well-known object placement algorithm, and identify configuration scenarios in which aggregate rebuild performance is constrained by object placement policies. After determining the root cause of this bottleneck, we then propose enhancements to CRUSH and the usage policies atop it to enable scalable replica reconstruction. We use these methods to demonstrate a simulated aggregate rebuild rate of 410 GiB/s (within 5% of projected ideal linear scaling) on a 1,024-node commodity storage system. We also uncover an unexpected phenomenon in rebuild performance based on the characteristics of the data stored on the system.

  20. Experimental study of the impact of large-scale wind farms on land–atmosphere exchanges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wei; Markfort, Corey D; Porté-Agel, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale wind farms, covering a significant portion of the land and ocean surface, may affect the transport of momentum, heat, mass and moisture between the atmosphere and the land locally and globally. To understand the wind-farm–atmosphere interaction, we conducted wind-tunnel experiments to study the surface scalar (heat) flux using model wind farms, consisting of more than ten rows of wind turbines—having typical streamwise and spanwise spacings of five and four rotor diameters—in a neutral boundary layer with a heated surface. The spatial distribution of the surface heat flux was mapped with an array of surface heat flux sensors within the quasi-developed regime of the wind-farm flow. Although the overall surface heat flux change produced by the wind farms was found to be small, with a net reduction of 4% for a staggered wind farm and nearly zero change for an aligned wind farm, the highly heterogeneous spatial distribution of the surface heat flux, dependent on the wind-farm layout, was significant. The difference between the minimum and maximum surface heat fluxes could be up to 12% and 7% in aligned and staggered wind farms, respectively. This finding is important for planning intensive agriculture practice and optimizing farm land use strategy regarding wind energy project development. The well-controlled wind-tunnel experiments presented in this study also provide a first comprehensive dataset on turbulent flow and scalar transport in wind farms, which can be further used to develop and validate new parameterizations of surface scalar fluxes in numerical models. (letter)

  1. Large-scale river regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, G.

    1994-01-01

    Recent concern over human impacts on the environment has tended to focus on climatic change, desertification, destruction of tropical rain forests, and pollution. Yet large-scale water projects such as dams, reservoirs, and inter-basin transfers are among the most dramatic and extensive ways in which our environment has been, and continues to be, transformed by human action. Water running to the sea is perceived as a lost resource, floods are viewed as major hazards, and wetlands are seen as wastelands. River regulation, involving the redistribution of water in time and space, is a key concept in socio-economic development. To achieve water and food security, to develop drylands, and to prevent desertification and drought are primary aims for many countries. A second key concept is ecological sustainability. Yet the ecology of rivers and their floodplains is dependent on the natural hydrological regime, and its related biochemical and geomorphological dynamics. (Author)

  2. The impact of new forms of large-scale general practice provider collaborations on England's NHS: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettigrew, Luisa M; Kumpunen, Stephanie; Mays, Nicholas; Rosen, Rebecca; Posaner, Rachel

    2018-03-01

    Over the past decade, collaboration between general practices in England to form new provider networks and large-scale organisations has been driven largely by grassroots action among GPs. However, it is now being increasingly advocated for by national policymakers. Expectations of what scaling up general practice in England will achieve are significant. To review the evidence of the impact of new forms of large-scale general practice provider collaborations in England. Systematic review. Embase, MEDLINE, Health Management Information Consortium, and Social Sciences Citation Index were searched for studies reporting the impact on clinical processes and outcomes, patient experience, workforce satisfaction, or costs of new forms of provider collaborations between general practices in England. A total of 1782 publications were screened. Five studies met the inclusion criteria and four examined the same general practice networks, limiting generalisability. Substantial financial investment was required to establish the networks and the associated interventions that were targeted at four clinical areas. Quality improvements were achieved through standardised processes, incentives at network level, information technology-enabled performance dashboards, and local network management. The fifth study of a large-scale multisite general practice organisation showed that it may be better placed to implement safety and quality processes than conventional practices. However, unintended consequences may arise, such as perceptions of disenfranchisement among staff and reductions in continuity of care. Good-quality evidence of the impacts of scaling up general practice provider organisations in England is scarce. As more general practice collaborations emerge, evaluation of their impacts will be important to understand which work, in which settings, how, and why. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

  3. Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Offshore Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology in Oregon Coastal Counties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, T. [Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Washington, DC (United States); Tegen, S. [Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Washington, DC (United States); Beiter, P. [Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Washington, DC (United States)

    2015-03-01

    To begin understanding the potential economic impacts of large-scale WEC technology, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct an economic impact analysis of largescale WEC deployment for Oregon coastal counties. This report follows a previously published report by BOEM and NREL on the jobs and economic impacts of WEC technology for the entire state (Jimenez and Tegen 2015). As in Jimenez and Tegen (2015), this analysis examined two deployment scenarios in the 2026-2045 timeframe: the first scenario assumed 13,000 megawatts (MW) of WEC technology deployed during the analysis period, and the second assumed 18,000 MW of WEC technology deployed by 2045. Both scenarios require major technology and cost improvements in the WEC devices. The study is on very large-scale deployment so readers can examine and discuss the potential of a successful and very large WEC industry. The 13,000-MW is used as the basis for the county analysis as it is the smaller of the two scenarios. Sensitivity studies examined the effects of a robust in-state WEC supply chain. The region of analysis is comprised of the seven coastal counties in Oregon—Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, Lincoln, and Tillamook—so estimates of jobs and other economic impacts are specific to this coastal county area.

  4. Expecting a boomtown? Exploring potential housing – related impacts of large scale resource developments in Darwin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gretchen Ennis

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Darwin is a city in the Northern Territory of Australia expecting a ‘boomtown’ scenario due to significant natural resource developments in the Greater Darwin area. The experience of ‘booming’ has a range of impacts upon communities. Housing is a key area of impact, particularly for the most vulnerable members of a population, who may not reap the benefits of the ‘boom’. In Darwin, new resource developments will begin in the context of record high house prices, high rents and high homelessness rates. This literature review explores what is known about the housing-related impacts of boomtowns and considers the likely housing-related impacts of a boomtown scenario in Darwin. While the city’s diverse economy and population size may provide some insulation from severe boomtown impacts, housing availability and affordability is likely to be negatively impacted. The implications of this for the most vulnerable members of the greater Darwin population require careful consideration.

  5. Non-Destructive Thermography Analysis of Impact Damage on Large-Scale CFRP Automotive Parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Alexander; Schmidt, Roland; Oswald-Tranta, Beate; Schledjewski, Ralf

    2014-01-01

    Laminated composites are increasingly used in aeronautics and the wind energy industry, as well as in the automotive industry. In these applications, the construction and processing need to fulfill the highest requirements regarding weight and mechanical properties. Environmental issues, like fuel consumption and CO2-footprint, set new challenges in producing lightweight parts that meet the highly monitored standards for these branches. In the automotive industry, one main aspect of construction is the impact behavior of structural parts. To verify the quality of parts made from composite materials with little effort, cost and time, non-destructive test methods are increasingly used. A highly recommended non-destructive testing method is thermography analysis. In this work, a prototype for a car’s base plate was produced by using vacuum infusion. For research work, testing specimens were produced with the same multi-layer build up as the prototypes. These specimens were charged with defined loads in impact tests to simulate the effect of stone chips. Afterwards, the impacted specimens were investigated with thermography analysis. The research results in that work will help to understand the possible fields of application and the usage of thermography analysis as the first quick and economic failure detection method for automotive parts. PMID:28788464

  6. Non-Destructive Thermography Analysis of Impact Damage on Large-Scale CFRP Automotive Parts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Maier

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Laminated composites are increasingly used in aeronautics and the wind energy industry, as well as in the automotive industry. In these applications, the construction and processing need to fulfill the highest requirements regarding weight and mechanical properties. Environmental issues, like fuel consumption and CO2-footprint, set new challenges in producing lightweight parts that meet the highly monitored standards for these branches. In the automotive industry, one main aspect of construction is the impact behavior of structural parts. To verify the quality of parts made from composite materials with little effort, cost and time, non-destructive test methods are increasingly used. A highly recommended non-destructive testing method is thermography analysis. In this work, a prototype for a car’s base plate was produced by using vacuum infusion. For research work, testing specimens were produced with the same multi-layer build up as the prototypes. These specimens were charged with defined loads in impact tests to simulate the effect of stone chips. Afterwards, the impacted specimens were investigated with thermography analysis. The research results in that work will help to understand the possible fields of application and the usage of thermography analysis as the first quick and economic failure detection method for automotive parts.

  7. Non-Destructive Thermography Analysis of Impact Damage on Large-Scale CFRP Automotive Parts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Alexander; Schmidt, Roland; Oswald-Tranta, Beate; Schledjewski, Ralf

    2014-01-14

    Laminated composites are increasingly used in aeronautics and the wind energy industry, as well as in the automotive industry. In these applications, the construction and processing need to fulfill the highest requirements regarding weight and mechanical properties. Environmental issues, like fuel consumption and CO₂-footprint, set new challenges in producing lightweight parts that meet the highly monitored standards for these branches. In the automotive industry, one main aspect of construction is the impact behavior of structural parts. To verify the quality of parts made from composite materials with little effort, cost and time, non-destructive test methods are increasingly used. A highly recommended non-destructive testing method is thermography analysis. In this work, a prototype for a car's base plate was produced by using vacuum infusion. For research work, testing specimens were produced with the same multi-layer build up as the prototypes. These specimens were charged with defined loads in impact tests to simulate the effect of stone chips. Afterwards, the impacted specimens were investigated with thermography analysis. The research results in that work will help to understand the possible fields of application and the usage of thermography analysis as the first quick and economic failure detection method for automotive parts.

  8. Impact of large-scale energy efficiency programs on utility finances and consumer tariffs in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abhyankar, Nikit; Phadke, Amol

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect on utility finances and consumer tariffs of implementing utility-funded demand-side energy efficiency (EE) programs in India. We use the state of Delhi as a case study. We estimate that by 2015, the electric utilities in Delhi can potentially save nearly 14% of total sales. We examine the impacts on utility finances and consumer tariffs by developing scenarios that account for variations in the following factors: (a) incentive mechanisms for mitigating the financial risk of utilities, (b) whether utilities fund the EE programs only partially, (c) whether utilities sell the conserved electricity into spot markets and (d) the level of power shortages utilities are facing. We find that average consumer tariff would increase by 2.2% although consumers participating in EE programs benefit from reduction in their electricity consumption. While utility incentive mechanisms can mitigate utilities’ risk of losing long-run returns, they cannot address the risk of consistently negative cash flow. In case of power shortages, the cash flow risk is amplified (reaching up to 57% of utilities annual returns) and is very sensitive to marginal tariffs of consumers facing power shortages. We conclude by proposing solutions to mitigate utility risks. - Highlights: ► We model implementation of energy efficiency (EE) programs in Delhi, India. ► We examine the impact on utility finances and consumer tariffs from 2012 to 2015. ► We find that average consumer tariffs increase but participating consumers benefit. ► Existing regulatory mechanisms cannot address utilities’ risk of negative cash flow. ► Frequent true-ups or ex-ante revenue adjustment is required to address such risk.

  9. Environmental impacts of a large-scale incinerator with mixed MSW of high water content from a LCA perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Ziyang; Bilitewski, Bernd; Zhu, Nanwen; Chai, Xiaoli; Li, Bing; Zhao, Youcai

    2015-04-01

    Large-scale incinerators are applied widely as a result of the heavy burden of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated, while strong opposition is arising from the public living nearby. A large-scale working incineration plant of 1500 ton/day was chosen for evaluation using life cycle assessment. It was found that the corresponding human toxicity impacts via soil (HTs), human toxicity impacts via water (HTw) and human toxicity impacts via air (HTa) categories are 0.213, 2.171, and 0.012 personal equivalents (PE), and global warming (GW100) and nutrient enrichment (NE) impacts are 0.002 and 0.001 PE per ton of waste burned for this plant. Heavy metals in flue gas, such as Hg and Pb, are the two dominant contributors to the toxicity impact categories, and energy recovery could reduce the GW100 and NE greatly. The corresponding HTs, HTw and HTa decrease to 0.087, 0.911 and 0.008 PE, and GW100 turns into savings of -0.007 PE due to the increase of the heating value from 3935 to 5811 kJ/kg, if a trommel screener of 40 mm mesh size is used to pre-separate MSW. MSW sorting and the reduction of water content by physical pressure might be two promising pre-treatment methods to improve the combustion performance, and the application of stricter standards for leachate discharge and the flue gas purification process are two critical factors for improvement of the environmental profile identified in this work. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Impact of ultralight axion self-interactions on the large scale structure of the Universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desjacques, Vincent; Kehagias, Alex; Riotto, Antonio

    2018-01-01

    Ultralight axions have sparked attention because their tiny mass m ˜10-22 eV , which leads to a kiloparsec-scale de Broglie wavelength comparable to the size of a dwarf galaxy, could alleviate the so-called small-scale crisis of massive cold dark matter (CDM) candidates. However, recent analyses of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum set a tight lower bound on their mass of m ≳10-21 eV which makes them much less relevant from an astrophysical point of view. An important caveat to these numerical studies is that they do not take into account self-interactions among ultralight axions. Furthermore, for axions which acquired a mass through nonperturbative effects, this self-interaction is attractive and, therefore, could counteract the quantum "pressure" induced by the strong delocalization of the particles. In this work, we show that even a tiny attractive interaction among ultralight axions can have a significant impact on the stability of cosmic structures at low redshift. After a brief review of known results about solitons in the absence of gravity, we discuss the stability of filamentary and pancakelike solutions when quantum pressure, attractive interactions and gravity are present. The analysis based on 1 degree of freedom, namely the breathing mode, reveals that pancakes are stable, while filaments are unstable if the mass per unit length is larger than a critical value. However, we show that pancakes are unstable against transverse perturbations. We expect this to be true for halos and filaments as well. Instabilities driven by the breathing mode will not be seen in the low column density Lyman-α forest unless the axion decay constant is extremely small, f ≲1013 GeV . Notwithstanding, axion solitonic cores could leave a detectable signature in the Lyman-α forest if the normalization of the unknown axion core—filament mass relation is ˜100 larger than it is for spherical halos. We hope our work motivates future numerical studies of the impact of axion

  11. Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Glotter, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Smith, Leonard A.; Foster, Ian

    2017-01-01

    Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

  12. Characterizing agricultural impacts of recent large-scale US droughts and changing technology and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, Joshua [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Computation Inst.; Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States); Glotter, Michael [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of the Geophysical Sciences; Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Boote, Kenneth J. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.; Hatfield, Jerry L. [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Ames, IA (United States). National Lab. for Agriculture and the Environment; Jones, James W. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Smith, Leonard A. [London School of Economics, London (United Kingdom). Center for Analysis of Time Series; Foster, Ian [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Computation Inst.; Computation Inst.; Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model-based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

  13. Regional climate modeling: Should one attempt improving on the large scales? Lateral boundary condition scheme: Any impact?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veljovic, Katarina; Rajkovic, Borivoj [Belgrade Univ. (RS). Inst. of Meteorology; Fennessy, Michael J.; Altshuler, Eric L. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Mesinger, Fedor [Maryland Univ., College Park (United States). Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center; Serbian Academy of Science and Arts, Belgrade (RS)

    2010-06-15

    equitable threat scores (Mesinger 2008) and frequency bias scores for wind speeds greater than a chosen wind speed threshold, with the ECMWF analyses used as truth. We also calculate a traditional RMS difference between the forecast and analyzed winds at this same level. Our results show the Eta RCM skill in forecasting large scales with no interior nudging to be just about the same as and usually even slightly higher than that of the driver model. As to the LBC impact, no disadvantage compared to relaxation was seen from using the Eta scheme, in spite of its requiring information from the outermost RCM boundary only. (orig.)

  14. Modelling the large-scale yellow fever outbreak in Luanda, Angola, and the impact of vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shi; Stone, Lewi; Gao, Daozhou; He, Daihai

    2018-01-01

    Yellow fever (YF), transmitted via bites of infected mosquitoes, is a life-threatening viral disease endemic to tropical and subtropical regions of Africa and South America. YF has largely been controlled by widespread national vaccination campaigns. Nevertheless, between December 2015 and August 2016, YF resurged in Angola, quickly spread and became the largest YF outbreak for the last 30 years. Recently, YF resurged again in Brazil (December 2016). Thus, there is an urgent need to gain better understanding of the transmission pattern of YF. The present study provides a refined mathematical model, combined with modern likelihood-based statistical inference techniques, to assess and reconstruct important epidemiological processes underlying Angola's YF outbreak. This includes the outbreak's attack rate, the reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), the role of the mosquito vector, the influence of climatic factors, and the unusual but noticeable appearance of two-waves in the YF outbreak. The model explores actual and hypothetical vaccination strategies, and the impacts of possible human reactive behaviors (e.g., response to media precautions). While there were 73 deaths reported over the study period, the model indicates that the vaccination campaign saved 5.1-fold more people from death and saved from illness 5.6-fold of the observed 941 cases. Delaying the availability of the vaccines further would have greatly worsened the epidemic in terms of increased cases and deaths. The analysis estimated a mean [Formula: see text] and an attack rate of 0.09-0.15% (proportion of population infected) over the whole period from December 2015 to August 2016. Our estimated lower and upper bounds of [Formula: see text] are in line with previous studies. Unusually, [Formula: see text] oscillated in a manner that was "delayed" with the reported deaths. High recent number of deaths were associated (followed) with periods of relatively low disease transmission and low [Formula

  15. Methods for assessing the socioeconomic impacts of large-scale resource developments: implications for nuclear repository siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.

    1983-03-01

    An overview of the major methods presently available for assessing the socioeconomic impacts of large-scale resource developments and includes discussion of the implications and applications of such methods for nuclear-waste-repository siting are provided. The report: (1) summarizes conceptual approaches underlying, and methodological alternatives for, the conduct of impact assessments in each substantive area, and then enumerates advantages and disadvantages of each alternative; (2) describes factors related to the impact-assessment process, impact events, and the characteristics of rural areas that affect the magnitude and distribution of impacts and the assessment of impacts in each area; (3) provides a detailed review of those methodologies actually used in impact assessment for each area, describes advantages and problems encountered in the use of each method, and identifies the frequency of use and the general level of acceptance of each technique; and (4) summarizes the implications of each area of projection for the repository-siting process, the applicability of the methods for each area to the special and standard features of repositories, and makes general recommendations concerning specific methods and procedures that should be incorporated in assessments for siting areas

  16. Failure Impact Assessment for Large-Scale Landslides Located Near Human Settlement: Case Study in Southern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chien Chung

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused over 680 deaths and more than 20,000 landslides in Taiwan. From 2010 to 2015, the Central Geological Survey of the Ministry of Economic Affairs identified 1047 potential large-scale landslides in Taiwan, of which 103 may have affected human settlements. This paper presents an analytical procedure that can be applied to assess the possible impact of a landslide collapse on nearby settlements. In this paper, existing technologies, including interpretation of remote sensing images, hydrogeological investigation, and numerical analysis, are integrated to evaluate potential failure scenarios and the landslide scale of a specific case: the Xinzhuang landslide. GeoStudio and RAMMS analysis modes and hazard classification produced the following results: (1 evaluation of the failure mechanisms and the influence zones of large-scale landslides; (2 assessment of the migration and accumulation of the landslide mass after failure; and (3 a landslide hazard and evacuation map. The results of the case study show that this analytical procedure can quantitatively estimate potential threats to human settlements. Furthermore, it can be applied to other villages and used as a reference in disaster prevention and evacuation planning.

  17. Impact of Wind Shear and Tower Shadow Effects on Power System with Large Scale Wind Power Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Su, Chi; Chen, Zhe

    2011-01-01

    presents a simulation model of a variable speed wind farm with permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs) and fullscale back-to-back converters in the simulation tool of DIgSILENT/PowerFactory. In this paper, the impacts of wind shear and tower shadow effects on the small signal stability of power......Grid connected wind turbines are fluctuating power sources due to wind speed variations, the wind shear and the tower shadow effects. The fluctuating power may be able to excite the power system oscillation at a frequency close to the natural oscillation frequency of a power system. This paper...... systems with large scale wind power penetrations are investigated during continuous operation based on the wind turbine model and the power system model....

  18. Data for Figures and Tables in "Impacts of Different Characterizations of Large-Scale Background on Simulated Regional-Scale Ozone Over the Continental U.S."

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the data used in the Figures and Tables of the manuscript "Impacts of Different Characterizations of Large-Scale Background on Simulated...

  19. Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasonova, Olga N.; Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

    2018-06-01

    Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006-2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

  20. Adapting to large-scale changes in Advanced Placement Biology, Chemistry, and Physics: the impact of online teacher communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frumin, Kim; Dede, Chris; Fischer, Christian; Foster, Brandon; Lawrenz, Frances; Eisenkraft, Arthur; Fishman, Barry; Jurist Levy, Abigail; McCoy, Ayana

    2018-03-01

    Over the past decade, the field of teacher professional learning has coalesced around core characteristics of high quality professional development experiences (e.g. Borko, Jacobs, & Koellner, 2010. Contemporary approaches to teacher professional development. In P. L. Peterson, E. Baker, & B. McGaw (Eds.), International encyclopedia of education (Vol. 7, pp. 548-556). Oxford: Elsevier.; Darling-Hammond, Hyler, & Gardner, 2017. Effective teacher professional development. Palo Alto, CA: Learning Policy Institute). Many countries have found these advances of great interest because of a desire to build teacher capacity in science education and across the full curriculum. This paper continues this progress by examining the role and impact of an online professional development community within the top-down, large-scale curriculum and assessment revision of Advanced Placement (AP) Biology, Chemistry, and Physics. This paper is part of a five-year, longitudinal, U.S. National Science Foundation-funded project to study the relative effectiveness of various types of professional development in enabling teachers to adapt to the revised AP course goals and exams. Of the many forms of professional development our research has examined, preliminary analyses indicated that participation in the College Board's online AP Teacher Community (APTC) - where teachers can discuss teaching strategies, share resources, and connect with each other - had positive, direct, and statistically significant association with teacher self-reported shifts in practice and with gains in student AP scores (Fishman et al., 2014). This study explored how usage of the online APTC might be useful to teachers and examined a more robust estimate of these effects. Findings from the experience of AP teachers may be valuable in supporting other large-scale curriculum changes, such as the U.S. Next Generation Science Standards or Common Core Standards, as well as parallel curricular shifts in other countries.

  1. Impact on demersal fish of a large-scale and deep sand extraction site with ecosystem-based landscaped sandbars

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jong, Maarten F.; Baptist, Martin J.; van Hal, Ralf; de Boois, Ingeborg J.; Lindeboom, Han J.; Hoekstra, Piet

    2014-06-01

    For the seaward harbour extension of the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, approximately 220 million m3 sand was extracted between 2009 and 2013. In order to decrease the surface area of direct impact, the authorities permitted deep sand extraction, down to 20 m below the seabed. Biological and physical impacts of large-scale and deep sand extraction are still being investigated and largely unknown. For this reason, we investigated the colonization of demersal fish in a deep sand extraction site. Two sandbars were artificially created by selective dredging, copying naturally occurring meso-scale bedforms to increase habitat heterogeneity and increasing post-dredging benthic and demersal fish species richness and biomass. Significant differences in demersal fish species assemblages in the sand extraction site were associated with variables such as water depth, median grain size, fraction of very fine sand, biomass of white furrow shell (Abra alba) and time after the cessation of sand extraction. Large quantities of undigested crushed white furrow shell fragments were found in all stomachs and intestines of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), indicating that it is an important prey item. One and two years after cessation, a significant 20-fold increase in demersal fish biomass was observed in deep parts of the extraction site. In the troughs of a landscaped sandbar however, a significant drop in biomass down to reference levels and a significant change in species assemblage was observed two years after cessation. The fish assemblage at the crests of the sandbars differed significantly from the troughs with tub gurnard (Chelidonichthys lucerna) being a Dufrêne-Legendre indicator species of the crests. This is a first indication of the applicability of landscaping techniques to induce heterogeneity of the seabed although it remains difficult to draw a strong conclusion due the lack of replication in the experiment. A new ecological equilibrium is not reached after 2

  2. Mercury pollution in Wuchuan mercury mining area, Guizhou, Southwestern China: the impacts from large scale and artisanal mercury mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ping; Feng, Xinbin; Qiu, Guangle; Shang, Lihai; Wang, Shaofeng

    2012-07-01

    To evaluate the environmental impacts from large scale mercury mining (LSMM) and artisanal mercury mining (AMM), total mercury (THg) and methyl mercury (MeHg) were determined in mine waste, ambient air, stream water and soil samples collected from Wuchuan mercury (Hg) mining area, Guizhou, Southwestern China. Mine wastes from both LSMM and AMM contained high THg concentrations, which are important Hg contamination sources to the local environment. Total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations in the ambient air near AMM furnaces were highly elevated, which indicated that AMM retorting is a major source of Hg emission. THg concentrations in the stream water varied from 43 to 2100 ng/L, where the elevated values were mainly found in the vicinity of AMM and mine waste heaps of LSMM. Surface soils were seriously contaminated with Hg, and land using types and organic matter played an important role in accumulation and transportation of Hg in soil. The results indicated heavy Hg contaminations in the study area, which were resulted from both LSMM and AMM. The areas impacted by LSMM were concentrated in the historical mining and smelting facilities, while Hg pollution resulted from AMM can be distributed anywhere in the Hg mining area. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Large scale electrolysers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    B Bello; M Junker

    2006-01-01

    Hydrogen production by water electrolysis represents nearly 4 % of the world hydrogen production. Future development of hydrogen vehicles will require large quantities of hydrogen. Installation of large scale hydrogen production plants will be needed. In this context, development of low cost large scale electrolysers that could use 'clean power' seems necessary. ALPHEA HYDROGEN, an European network and center of expertise on hydrogen and fuel cells, has performed for its members a study in 2005 to evaluate the potential of large scale electrolysers to produce hydrogen in the future. The different electrolysis technologies were compared. Then, a state of art of the electrolysis modules currently available was made. A review of the large scale electrolysis plants that have been installed in the world was also realized. The main projects related to large scale electrolysis were also listed. Economy of large scale electrolysers has been discussed. The influence of energy prices on the hydrogen production cost by large scale electrolysis was evaluated. (authors)

  4. Large-scale renewable energy project barriers: Environmental impact assessment streamlining efforts in Japan and the EU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schumacher, Kim

    2017-01-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) procedures have been identified as a major barrier to renewable energy (RE) development with regards to large-scale projects (LS-RE). However EIA laws have also been neglected by many decision-makers who have been underestimating its impact on RE development and the stifling potential they possess. As a consequence, apart from acknowledging the shortcomings of the systems currently in place, few governments momentarily have concrete plans to reform their EIA laws. By looking at recent EIA streamlining efforts in two industrialized regions that underwent major transformations in their energy sectors, this paper attempts to assess how such reform efforts can act as a means to support the balancing of environmental protection and climate change mitigation with socio-economic challenges. Thereby this paper fills this intellectual void by identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the Japanese EIA law by contrasting it with the recently revised EIA Directive of the European Union (EU). This enables the identification of the regulatory provisions that impact RE development the most and the determination of how structured EIA law reforms would affect domestic RE project development. The main focus lies on the evaluation of regulatory streamlining efforts in the Japanese and EU contexts through the application of a mixed-methods approach, consisting of in-depth literary and legal reviews, followed by a comparative analysis and a series of semi-structured interviews. Highlighting several legal inconsistencies in combination with the views of EIA professionals, academics and law- and policymakers, allowed for a more comprehensive assessment of what streamlining elements of the reformed EU EIA Directive and the proposed Japanese EIA framework modifications could either promote or stifle further RE deployment. - Highlights: •Performs an in-depth review of EIA reforms in OECD territories •First paper to compare Japan and the European

  5. Impacts of large-scale circulation on urban ambient concentrations of gaseous elemental mercury in New York, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Mao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of large-scale circulation on urban gaseous elemental mercury (GEM was investigated through analysis of 2008–2015 measurement data from an urban site in New York City (NYC, New York, USA. Distinct annual cycles were observed in 2009–2010 with mixing ratios in warm seasons (i.e., spring–summer 10–20 ppqv ( ∼  10–25 % higher than in cool seasons (i.e., fall–winter. This annual cycle was disrupted in 2011 by an anomalously strong influence of the US East Coast trough in that warm season and was reproduced in 2014 associated with a particularly strong Bermuda High. The US East Coast trough axis index (TAI and intensity index (TII were used to characterize the effect of the US East Coast trough on NYC GEM, especially in winter and summer. The intensity and position of the Bermuda High appeared to have a significant impact on GEM in warm seasons. Regional influence on NYC GEM was supported by the GEM–carbon monoxide (CO correlation with r of 0.17–0.69 (p ∼  0 in most seasons. Simulated regional and local anthropogenic contributions to wintertime NYC anthropogenically induced GEM concentrations were averaged at  ∼  75 % and 25 %, with interannual variation ranging over 67 %–83 % and 17 %–33 %, respectively. Results from this study suggest the possibility that the increasingly strong Bermuda High over the past decades could dominate over anthropogenic mercury emission control in affecting ambient concentrations of mercury via regional buildup and possibly enhancing natural and legacy emissions.

  6. The state of OA: a large-scale analysis of the prevalence and impact of Open Access articles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piwowar, Heather; Priem, Jason; Larivière, Vincent; Alperin, Juan Pablo; Matthias, Lisa; Norlander, Bree; Farley, Ashley; West, Jevin; Haustein, Stefanie

    2018-01-01

    Despite growing interest in Open Access (OA) to scholarly literature, there is an unmet need for large-scale, up-to-date, and reproducible studies assessing the prevalence and characteristics of OA. We address this need using oaDOI, an open online service that determines OA status for 67 million articles. We use three samples, each of 100,000 articles, to investigate OA in three populations: (1) all journal articles assigned a Crossref DOI, (2) recent journal articles indexed in Web of Science, and (3) articles viewed by users of Unpaywall, an open-source browser extension that lets users find OA articles using oaDOI. We estimate that at least 28% of the scholarly literature is OA (19M in total) and that this proportion is growing, driven particularly by growth in Gold and Hybrid. The most recent year analyzed (2015) also has the highest percentage of OA (45%). Because of this growth, and the fact that readers disproportionately access newer articles, we find that Unpaywall users encounter OA quite frequently: 47% of articles they view are OA. Notably, the most common mechanism for OA is not Gold, Green, or Hybrid OA, but rather an under-discussed category we dub Bronze: articles made free-to-read on the publisher website, without an explicit Open license. We also examine the citation impact of OA articles, corroborating the so-called open-access citation advantage: accounting for age and discipline, OA articles receive 18% more citations than average, an effect driven primarily by Green and Hybrid OA. We encourage further research using the free oaDOI service, as a way to inform OA policy and practice.

  7. Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

    2018-03-01

    The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

  8. The state of OA: a large-scale analysis of the prevalence and impact of Open Access articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather Piwowar

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Despite growing interest in Open Access (OA to scholarly literature, there is an unmet need for large-scale, up-to-date, and reproducible studies assessing the prevalence and characteristics of OA. We address this need using oaDOI, an open online service that determines OA status for 67 million articles. We use three samples, each of 100,000 articles, to investigate OA in three populations: (1 all journal articles assigned a Crossref DOI, (2 recent journal articles indexed in Web of Science, and (3 articles viewed by users of Unpaywall, an open-source browser extension that lets users find OA articles using oaDOI. We estimate that at least 28% of the scholarly literature is OA (19M in total and that this proportion is growing, driven particularly by growth in Gold and Hybrid. The most recent year analyzed (2015 also has the highest percentage of OA (45%. Because of this growth, and the fact that readers disproportionately access newer articles, we find that Unpaywall users encounter OA quite frequently: 47% of articles they view are OA. Notably, the most common mechanism for OA is not Gold, Green, or Hybrid OA, but rather an under-discussed category we dub Bronze: articles made free-to-read on the publisher website, without an explicit Open license. We also examine the citation impact of OA articles, corroborating the so-called open-access citation advantage: accounting for age and discipline, OA articles receive 18% more citations than average, an effect driven primarily by Green and Hybrid OA. We encourage further research using the free oaDOI service, as a way to inform OA policy and practice.

  9. Climate change and large-scale land acquisitions in Africa: Quantifying the future impact on acquired water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiarelli, Davide Danilo; Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2016-08-01

    Pressure on agricultural land has markedly increased since the start of the century, driven by demographic growth, changes in diet, increasing biofuel demand, and globalization. To better ensure access to adequate land and water resources, many investors and countries began leasing large areas of agricultural land in the global South, a phenomenon often termed "large-scale land acquisition" (LSLA). To date, this global land rush has resulted in the appropriation of 41million hectares and about 490 km3 of freshwater resources, affecting rural livelihoods and local environments. It remains unclear to what extent land and water acquisitions contribute to the emergence of water-stress conditions in acquired areas, and how these demands for water may be impacted by climate change. Here we analyze 18 African countries - 20 Mha (or 80%) of LSLA for the continent - and estimate that under present climate 210 km3 year-1of water would be appropriated if all acquired areas were actively under production. We also find that consumptive use of irrigation water is disproportionately contributed by water-intensive biofuel crops. Using the IPCCA1B scenario, we find only small changes in green (-1.6%) and blue (+2.0%) water demand in targeted areas. With a 3 °C temperature increase, crop yields are expected to decrease up to 20% with a consequent increase in the water footprint. When the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2concentrations is accounted for, crop yields increase by as much as 40% with a decrease in water footprint up to 29%. The relative importance of CO2 fertilization and warming will therefore determine water appropriations and changes in water footprint under climate change scenarios.

  10. Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Large-scale Hydrological Model to Prepare an Ensemble-based SWOT-like Data Assimilation Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, C. M.; Biancamaria, S.; Boone, A. A.; Ricci, S. M.; Garambois, P. A.; Decharme, B.; Rochoux, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Land Surface Models (LSM) coupled with River Routing schemes (RRM), are used in Global Climate Models (GCM) to simulate the continental part of the water cycle. They are key component of GCM as they provide boundary conditions to atmospheric and oceanic models. However, at global scale, errors arise mainly from simplified physics, atmospheric forcing, and input parameters. More particularly, those used in RRM, such as river width, depth and friction coefficients, are difficult to calibrate and are mostly derived from geomorphologic relationships, which may not always be realistic. In situ measurements are then used to calibrate these relationships and validate the model, but global in situ data are very sparse. Additionally, due to the lack of existing global river geomorphology database and accurate forcing, models are run at coarse resolution. This is typically the case of the ISBA-TRIP model used in this study.A complementary alternative to in-situ data are satellite observations. In this regard, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, jointly developed by NASA/CNES/CSA/UKSA and scheduled for launch around 2020, should be very valuable to calibrate RRM parameters. It will provide maps of water surface elevation for rivers wider than 100 meters over continental surfaces in between 78°S and 78°N and also direct observation of river geomorphological parameters such as width ans slope.Yet, before assimilating such kind of data, it is needed to analyze RRM temporal sensitivity to time-constant parameters. This study presents such analysis over large river basins for the TRIP RRM. Model output uncertainty, represented by unconditional variance, is decomposed into ordered contribution from each parameter. Doing a time-dependent analysis allows then to identify to which parameters modeled water level and discharge are the most sensitive along a hydrological year. The results show that local parameters directly impact water levels, while

  11. The impact of runoff and surface hydrology on Titan's climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulk, Sean; Lora, Juan; Mitchell, Jonathan

    2017-10-01

    Titan’s surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane “wetlands” reservoirs realistically produce many observed features of Titan’s atmosphere, whereas “aquaplanet” simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan’s surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan’s large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. To isolate the singular impact of surface runoff on Titan’s climatology, we run simulations without parameterizations of subsurface flow and topography-atmosphere interactions. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan’s hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan’s atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan’s global climate

  12. Modification of input datasets for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction based on large scale climatic indices and weather generator

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Daňhelka, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 528, September (2015), s. 720-733 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : seasonal forecasting * ESP * large-scale climate * weather generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.043, year: 2015

  13. Analysis of the economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass resources for energy and materials in the Netherlands : macro-economics biobased synthesis report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoefnagels, R.; Dornburg, V.; Faaij, A.; Banse, M.A.H.

    2011-01-01

    The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (PGG), part of the Energy Transition in The Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to conduct research on the macro-economic impact of large scale deployment of biomass for

  14. Preliminary discussion on possible genesis of crustal rotation, its impact on geotectonic evolution and its relation to large-scale metallogeny in Hunan province and adjacent regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shu Xiaojing

    2005-01-01

    Hunan province and adjacent regions show ring-form distribution features both on surface geologic structure and geophysical field. Such features might result from the rotation movement of the earth crust and exert serious impact on the geotectonic evolution and large-scale metallogeny in Hunan province and adjacent regions. This paper makes a preliminary discussion on the possible genesis of such rotation movement, as well as the associated series of geologic processes and its relation to large-scale metallogeny in Hunan province and adjacent regions. (authors)

  15. Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

    2018-03-01

    from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.

  16. Integrating Remote Sensing Information Into A Distributed Hydrological Model for Improving Water Budget Predictions in Large-scale Basins through Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Changbo; Jia, Yangwen; Su, Z.(Bob); Zhou, Zuhao; Qiu, Yaqin; Suhui, Shen

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates whether remote sensing evapotranspiration estimates can be integrated by means of data assimilation into a distributed hydrological model for improving the predictions of spatial water distribution over a large river basin with an area of 317,800 km2. A series of available MODIS satellite images over the Haihe River basin in China are used for the year 2005. Evapotranspiration is retrieved from these 1×1 km resolution images using the SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System) algorithm. The physically-based distributed model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins) is used to compute the water balance of the Haihe River basin in the same year. Comparison between model-derived and remote sensing retrieval basin-averaged evapotranspiration estimates shows a good piecewise linear relationship, but their spatial distribution within the Haihe basin is different. The remote sensing derived evapotranspiration shows variability at finer scales. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) data assimilation algorithm, suitable for non-linear problems, is used. Assimilation results indicate that remote sensing observations have a potentially important role in providing spatial information to the assimilation system for the spatially optical hydrological parameterization of the model. This is especially important for large basins, such as the Haihe River basin in this study. Combining and integrating the capabilities of and information from model simulation and remote sensing techniques may provide the best spatial and temporal characteristics for hydrological states/fluxes, and would be both appealing and necessary for improving our knowledge of fundamental hydrological processes and for addressing important water resource management problems. PMID:27879946

  17. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  18. Impacts of large-scale introduction of hydrogen in the road transport sector on urban air pollution and human exposure in Copenhagen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, S.S.; Ketzel, M.; Brandt, J.; Frohn, L.M.; Winther, M.; Nielsen, O.K. (Aarhus Univ.. National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde (Denmark)); Joergensen, K.; Karlsson, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy. Dept. of System Analysis, Roskilde (Denmark))

    2011-07-15

    The aim of the project 'Environmental and Health Impact Assessment of Scenarios for Renewable Energy Systems with Hydrogen' (HYSCENE) is to improve modelling of the environmental impacts and related socio-cultural and welfare economic impacts of a proposed hydrogen/renewable energy system with focus on large-scale introduction of hydrogen as energy carrier in the road transport sector (http://hyscene.dmu.dk). This extended abstract will focus on the impacts on urban air pollution and human exposure. (Author)

  19. Environmental impact assessment and environmental audit in large-scale public infrastructure construction: the case of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Guizhen; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yonglong

    2009-09-01

    Large-scale public infrastructure projects have featured in China's modernization course since the early 1980s. During the early stages of China's rapid economic development, public attention focused on the economic and social impact of high-profile construction projects. In recent years, however, we have seen a shift in public concern toward the environmental and ecological effects of such projects, and today governments are required to provide valid environmental impact assessments prior to allowing large-scale construction. The official requirement for the monitoring of environmental conditions has led to an increased number of debates in recent years regarding the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and Governmental Environmental Audits (GEAs) as environmental safeguards in instances of large-scale construction. Although EIA and GEA are conducted by different institutions and have different goals and enforcement potential, these two practices can be closely related in terms of methodology. This article cites the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway as an instance in which EIA and GEA offer complementary approaches to environmental impact management. This study concludes that the GEA approach can serve as an effective follow-up to the EIA and establishes that the EIA lays a base for conducting future GEAs. The relationship that emerges through a study of the Railway's construction calls for more deliberate institutional arrangements and cooperation if the two practices are to be used in concert to optimal effect.

  20. Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

  1. The Impact of an Extensive Usage of Controlled Natural Ventilation in the Residential Sector on Large-Scale Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oropeza-Perez, Ivan

    The energy situation in the world is becoming alarming. The demand of electricity continues to grow whereas the means of production remain limited. In addition, the electricity generation in the world is mostly based on fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. Only a small share of the total...... to the atmosphere. On the other hand, the efficiency of the end-use energy consumption is also fundamental to decrease the electricity production thus to lower the emission of greenhouse gases. Thereby, the building sector is a very important target because it consumes approximately one quarter of the total annual...... be reflected in the reduction of the electricity production. The objective of the thesis is to show realistic benefits of utilizing natural ventilation at an extensive manner onto large-scale scenarios such as a national scenario by using a model of natural ventilation developed here. To do so, a building...

  2. Evaluation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Impact on Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation in the Atlantic Region in Summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, V. A.; Cherenkova, E. A.

    2018-02-01

    The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic region in summer for the period of 1950-2015 is investigated. It is shown that the intensification of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with significant changes in sea level pressure anomalies in the main centers of action (over Greenland and the British Isles) occurred while the North Atlantic was cooler. Sea surface temperature anomalies, which are linked to the AMO in the summer season, affect both the NAO index and fluctuations of the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) centers of action. The positive (negative) phase of the AMO is characterized by a combination of negative (positive) values of the NAO and EAWR indices. The dominance of the opposite phases of the teleconnection indices in summer during the warm North Atlantic and in its colder period resulted in differences in the regional climate in Europe.

  3. Biochemical, hydrological and mechanical behaviors of high food waste content MSW landfill: Liquid-gas interactions observed from a large-scale experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Liang-Tong; Xu, Hui; Chen, Yun-Min; Lan, Ji-Wu; Lin, Wei-An; Xu, Xiao-Bing; He, Pin-Jing

    2017-10-01

    The high food waste content (HFWC) MSW at a landfill has the characteristics of rapid hydrolysis process, large leachate production rate and fast gas generation. The liquid-gas interactions at HFWC-MSW landfills are prominent and complex, and still remain significant challenges. This paper focuses on the liquid-gas interactions of HFWC-MSW observed from a large-scale bioreactor landfill experiment (5m×5m×7.5m). Based on the connected and quantitative analyses on the experimental observations, the following findings were obtained: (1) The high leachate level observed at Chinese landfills was attributed to the combined contribution from the great quantity of self-released leachate, waste compression and gas entrapped underwater. The contribution from gas entrapped underwater was estimated to be 21-28% of the total leachate level. (2) The gas entrapped underwater resulted in a reduction of hydraulic conductivity, decreasing by one order with an increase in gas content from 13% to 21%. (3) The "breakthrough value" in the gas accumulation zone was up to 11kPa greater than the pore liquid pressure. The increase of the breakthrough value was associated with the decrease of void porosity induced by surcharge loading. (4) The self-released leachate from HFWC-MSW was estimated to contribute to over 30% of the leachate production at landfills in Southern China. The drainage of leachate with a high organic loading in the rapid hydrolysis stage would lead to a loss of landfill gas (LFG) potential of 13%. Based on the above findings, an improved method considering the quantity of self-released leachate was proposed for the prediction of leachate production at HFWC-MSW landfills. In addition, a three-dimensional drainage system was proposed to drawdown the high leachate level and hence to improve the slope stability of a landfill, reduce the hydraulic head on a bottom liner and increase the collection efficiency for LFG. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Large-scale hydrological modeling for calculating water stress indices: implications of improved spatiotemporal resolution, surface-groundwater differentiation, and uncertainty characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, Laura; Venkatesh, Aranya; Karuppiah, Ramkumar; Pfister, Stephan

    2015-04-21

    Physical water scarcities can be described by water stress indices. These are often determined at an annual scale and a watershed level; however, such scales mask seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity within a watershed. In order to account for this level of detail, first and foremost, water availability estimates must be improved and refined. State-of-the-art global hydrological models such as WaterGAP and UNH/GRDC have previously been unable to reliably reflect water availability at the subbasin scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested as an alternative to global models, using the case study of the Mississippi watershed. While SWAT clearly outperformed the global models at the scale of a large watershed, it was judged to be unsuitable for global scale simulations due to the high calibration efforts required. The results obtained in this study show that global assessments miss out on key aspects related to upstream/downstream relations and monthly fluctuations, which are important both for the characterization of water scarcity in the Mississippi watershed and for water footprints. Especially in arid regions, where scarcity is high, these models provide unsatisfying results.

  5. Large scale reflood test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirano, Kemmei; Murao, Yoshio

    1980-01-01

    The large-scale reflood test with a view to ensuring the safety of light water reactors was started in fiscal 1976 based on the special account act for power source development promotion measures by the entrustment from the Science and Technology Agency. Thereafter, to establish the safety of PWRs in loss-of-coolant accidents by joint international efforts, the Japan-West Germany-U.S. research cooperation program was started in April, 1980. Thereupon, the large-scale reflood test is now included in this program. It consists of two tests using a cylindrical core testing apparatus for examining the overall system effect and a plate core testing apparatus for testing individual effects. Each apparatus is composed of the mock-ups of pressure vessel, primary loop, containment vessel and ECCS. The testing method, the test results and the research cooperation program are described. (J.P.N.)

  6. Demonstrating a new framework for the comparison of environmental impacts from small- and large-scale hydropower and wind power projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakken, Tor Haakon; Aase, Anne Guri; Hagen, Dagmar; Sundt, Håkon; Barton, David N; Lujala, Päivi

    2014-07-01

    Climate change and the needed reductions in the use of fossil fuels call for the development of renewable energy sources. However, renewable energy production, such as hydropower (both small- and large-scale) and wind power have adverse impacts on the local environment by causing reductions in biodiversity and loss of habitats and species. This paper compares the environmental impacts of many small-scale hydropower plants with a few large-scale hydropower projects and one wind power farm, based on the same set of environmental parameters; land occupation, reduction in wilderness areas (INON), visibility and impacts on red-listed species. Our basis for comparison was similar energy volumes produced, without considering the quality of the energy services provided. The results show that small-scale hydropower performs less favourably in all parameters except land occupation. The land occupation of large hydropower and wind power is in the range of 45-50 m(2)/MWh, which is more than two times larger than the small-scale hydropower, where the large land occupation for large hydropower is explained by the extent of the reservoirs. On all the three other parameters small-scale hydropower performs more than two times worse than both large hydropower and wind power. Wind power compares similarly to large-scale hydropower regarding land occupation, much better on the reduction in INON areas, and in the same range regarding red-listed species. Our results demonstrate that the selected four parameters provide a basis for further development of a fair and consistent comparison of impacts between the analysed renewable technologies. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Management of social and economic impacts associated with the construction of large-scale projects: experiences from the Western coal development communities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, M.R.; Curry, M.G.

    1977-06-01

    The construction and operation of large-scale energy or resource development projects are accompanied by environmental, social, and economic changes or impacts. Impact assessment is the key tool used to determine which impact areas will most severely affect the community and will thus need to be managed. Impact management, only recently recognized as part of the assessment process, includes public and private actions to ameliorate impacts. The use of available impact management strategies can affect the outcome or change in the social and economic environment in a community. Therefore, an inventory of available strategies and the capabilities of local governments to use such strategies should be an integral part of any social and economic impact assessment. This provides a link between impact assessment and management. This report provides an introductory analysis to some of the more complex issues raised by social and economic impact management, with experiences cited from Western coal-development communities. Following an introduction, the paper is divided into sections corresponding to the major social and economic impacts experienced by rural communities surrounding an energy development. Each section contains a brief introductory description of the types of problems typically associated with the impact sector, and a discussion of management strategies either proposed or implemented for the impact. The management strategies are presented in tabular form, indicating the level of government responsible for implementation. 10 tables, 72 references. (MCW)

  8. Evaluation of the Potential Environmental Impacts from Large-Scale Use and Production of Hydrogen in Energy and Transportation Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Dubey, M.K., Edmonds, J.; Layzell, D.; Olsen, S.; Rahn, T.; Rocket, A.; Wang, D.; Jia, W.

    2010-06-01

    The purpose of this project is to systematically identify and examine possible near and long-term ecological and environmental effects from the production of hydrogen from various energy sources based on the DOE hydrogen production strategy and the use of that hydrogen in transportation applications. This project uses state-of-the-art numerical modeling tools of the environment and energy system emissions in combination with relevant new and prior measurements and other analyses to assess the understanding of the potential ecological and environmental impacts from hydrogen market penetration. H2 technology options and market penetration scenarios will be evaluated using energy-technology-economics models as well as atmospheric trace gas projections based on the IPCC SRES scenarios including the decline in halocarbons due to the Montreal Protocol. Specifically we investigate the impact of hydrogen releases on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, the long-term stability of the ozone layer due to changes in hydrogen emissions, the impact of hydrogen emissions and resulting concentrations on climate, the impact on microbial ecosystems involved in hydrogen uptake, and criteria pollutants emitted from distributed and centralized hydrogen production pathways and their impacts on human health, air quality, ecosystems, and structures under different penetration scenarios

  9. Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; Eupen, van Michiel; Bloh, von Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a

  10. Large Scale Solar Heating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heller, Alfred

    2001-01-01

    The main objective of the research was to evaluate large-scale solar heating connected to district heating (CSDHP), to build up a simulation tool and to demonstrate the application of the simulation tool for design studies and on a local energy planning case. The evaluation was mainly carried out...... model is designed and validated on the Marstal case. Applying the Danish Reference Year, a design tool is presented. The simulation tool is used for proposals for application of alternative designs, including high-performance solar collector types (trough solar collectors, vaccum pipe collectors......). Simulation programs are proposed as control supporting tool for daily operation and performance prediction of central solar heating plants. Finaly the CSHP technolgy is put into persepctive with respect to alternatives and a short discussion on the barries and breakthrough of the technology are given....

  11. Large scale model testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumovsky, M.; Filip, R.; Polachova, H.; Stepanek, S.

    1989-01-01

    Fracture mechanics and fatigue calculations for WWER reactor pressure vessels were checked by large scale model testing performed using large testing machine ZZ 8000 (with a maximum load of 80 MN) at the SKODA WORKS. The results are described from testing the material resistance to fracture (non-ductile). The testing included the base materials and welded joints. The rated specimen thickness was 150 mm with defects of a depth between 15 and 100 mm. The results are also presented of nozzles of 850 mm inner diameter in a scale of 1:3; static, cyclic, and dynamic tests were performed without and with surface defects (15, 30 and 45 mm deep). During cyclic tests the crack growth rate in the elastic-plastic region was also determined. (author). 6 figs., 2 tabs., 5 refs

  12. Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2016-11-01

    Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. A method for the assessment of the visual impact caused by the large-scale deployment of renewable-energy facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Marcos; Montanes, Carlos; Fueyo, Norberto

    2010-01-01

    The production of energy from renewable sources requires a significantly larger use of the territory compared with conventional (fossil and nuclear) sources. For large penetrations of renewable technologies, such as wind power, the overall visual impact at the national level can be substantial, and may prompt public reaction. This study develops a methodology for the assessment of the visual impact that can be used to measure and report the level of impact caused by several renewable technologies (wind farms, solar photovoltaic plants or solar thermal ones), both at the local and regional (e.g. national) scales. Applications are shown to several large-scale, hypothetical scenarios of wind and solar-energy penetration in Spain, and also to the vicinity of an actual, single wind farm.

  14. A methodology for understanding the impacts of large-scale penetration of micro-combined heat and power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tapia-Ahumada, K.; Pérez-Arriaga, I.J.; Moniz, E.J.

    2013-01-01

    Co-generation at small kW-e scale has been stimulated in recent years by governments and energy regulators as one way to increasing energy efficiency and reducing CO 2 emissions. If a widespread adoption should be realized, their effects from a system's point of view are crucial to understand the contributions of this technology. Based on a methodology that uses long-term capacity planning expansion, this paper explores some of the implications for an electric power system of having a large number of micro-CHPs. Results show that fuel cells-based micro-CHPs have the best and most consistent performance for different residential demands from the customer and system's perspectives. As the penetration increases at important levels, gas-based technologies—particularly combined cycle units—are displaced in capacity and production, which impacts the operation of the electric system during summer peak hours. Other results suggest that the tariff design impacts the economic efficiency of the system and the operation of micro-CHPs under a price-based strategy. Finally, policies aimed at micro-CHPs should consider the suitability of the technology (in size and heat-to-power ratio) to meet individual demands, the operational complexities of a large penetration, and the adequacy of the economic signals to incentivize an efficient and sustainable operation. - Highlights: • Capacity displacements and daily operation of an electric power system are explored. • Benefits depend on energy mix, prices, and micro-CHP technology and control scheme. • Benefits are observed mostly in winter when micro-CHP heat and power are fully used. • Micro-CHPs mostly displace installed capacity from natural gas combined cycle units. • Tariff design impacts economic efficiency of the system and operation of micro-CHPs

  15. Real-time impact of power balancing on power system operation with large scale integration of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basit, Abdul; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2017-01-01

    Highly wind power integrated power system requires continuous active power regulation to tackle the power imbalances resulting from the wind power forecast errors. The active power balance is maintained in real-time with the automatic generation control and also from the control room, where...... power system model. The power system model takes the hour-ahead regulating power plan from power balancing model and the generation and power exchange capacities for the year 2020 into account. The real-time impact of power balancing in a highly wind power integrated power system is assessed...

  16. Large-scale experiments for the vulnerability analysis of buildings impacted and intruded by fluviatile torrential hazard processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturm, Michael; Gems, Bernhard; Fuchs, Sven; Mazzorana, Bruno; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria; Aufleger, Markus

    2016-04-01

    In European mountain regions, losses due to torrential hazards are still considerable high despite the ongoing debate on an overall increasing or decreasing trend. Recent events in Austria severely revealed that due to technical and economic reasons, an overall protection of settlements in the alpine environment against torrential hazards is not feasible. On the side of the hazard process, events with unpredictable intensities may represent overload scenarios for existent protection structures in the torrent catchments. They bear a particular risk of significant losses in the living space. Although the importance of vulnerability is widely recognised, there is still a research gap concerning its assessment. Currently, potential losses at buildings due to torrential hazards and their comparison with reinstatement costs are determined by the use of empirical functions. Hence, relations of process intensities and the extent of losses, gathered by the analysis of historic hazard events and the information of object-specific restoration values, are used. This approach does not represent a physics-based and integral concept since relevant and often crucial processes, as the intrusion of the fluid-sediment-mixture into elements at risk, are not considered. Based on these findings, our work is targeted at extending these findings and models of present risk research in the context of an integral, more physics-based vulnerability analysis concept. Fluviatile torrential hazard processes and their impacts on the building envelope are experimentally modelled. Material intrusion processes are thereby explicitly considered. Dynamic impacts are gathered quantitatively and spatially distributed by the use of a large set of force transducers. The experimental tests are accomplished with artificial, vertical and skewed plates, including also openings for material intrusion. Further, the impacts on specific buildings within the test site of the work, the fan apex of the Schnannerbach

  17. The 19 January 2013 windstorm over the North Atlantic: large-scale dynamics and impacts on Iberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarida L.R. Liberato

    2014-10-01

    Results show that Gong underwent an explosive development with ‘bomb’ characteristics between the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula, with a deepening rate unusually high for these latitudes. The rapid deepening of Gong was supported by the southerly displacement of the polar jet stream; by a pronounced cyclonic potential vorticity streamer which approached Iberia from northwest; and by the presence of an atmospheric river over the western and central subtropical North Atlantic converging into Gong׳s genesis region and then crossing the Atlantic basin, moving along with the storm towards Iberia. Understanding the dynamics of these high impact extreme events may be of relevance in view of improving extreme forecasts as well as of public awareness, policy making and risk assessment and management of severe weather in Portugal.

  18. Self-reported household impacts of large-scale chemical contamination of the public water supply, Charleston, West Virginia, USA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P Schade

    Full Text Available A January 2014 industrial accident contaminated the public water supply of approximately 300,000 homes in and near Charleston, West Virginia (USA with low levels of a strongly-smelling substance consisting principally of 4-methylcyclohexane methanol (MCHM. The ensuing state of emergency closed schools and businesses. Hundreds of people sought medical care for symptoms they related to the incident. We surveyed 498 households by telephone to assess the episode's health and economic impact as well as public perception of risk communication by responsible officials. Thirty two percent of households (159/498 reported someone with illness believed to be related to the chemical spill, chiefly dermatological or gastrointestinal symptoms. Respondents experienced more frequent symptoms of psychological distress during and within 30 days of the emergency than 90 days later. Sixty-seven respondent households (13% had someone miss work because of the crisis, missing a median of 3 days of work. Of 443 households reporting extra expenses due to the crisis, 46% spent less than $100, while 10% spent over $500 (estimated average about $206. More than 80% (401/485 households learned of the spill the same day it occurred. More than 2/3 of households complied fully with "do not use" orders that were issued; only 8% reported drinking water against advice. Household assessments of official communications varied by source, with local officials receiving an average "B" rating, whereas some federal and water company communication received a "D" grade. More than 90% of households obtained safe water from distribution centers or stores during the emergency. We conclude that the spill had major economic impact with substantial numbers of individuals reporting incident-related illnesses and psychological distress. Authorities were successful supplying emergency drinking water, but less so with risk communication.

  19. Self-reported household impacts of large-scale chemical contamination of the public water supply, Charleston, West Virginia, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schade, Charles P; Wright, Nasandra; Gupta, Rahul; Latif, David A; Jha, Ayan; Robinson, John

    2015-01-01

    A January 2014 industrial accident contaminated the public water supply of approximately 300,000 homes in and near Charleston, West Virginia (USA) with low levels of a strongly-smelling substance consisting principally of 4-methylcyclohexane methanol (MCHM). The ensuing state of emergency closed schools and businesses. Hundreds of people sought medical care for symptoms they related to the incident. We surveyed 498 households by telephone to assess the episode's health and economic impact as well as public perception of risk communication by responsible officials. Thirty two percent of households (159/498) reported someone with illness believed to be related to the chemical spill, chiefly dermatological or gastrointestinal symptoms. Respondents experienced more frequent symptoms of psychological distress during and within 30 days of the emergency than 90 days later. Sixty-seven respondent households (13%) had someone miss work because of the crisis, missing a median of 3 days of work. Of 443 households reporting extra expenses due to the crisis, 46% spent less than $100, while 10% spent over $500 (estimated average about $206). More than 80% (401/485) households learned of the spill the same day it occurred. More than 2/3 of households complied fully with "do not use" orders that were issued; only 8% reported drinking water against advice. Household assessments of official communications varied by source, with local officials receiving an average "B" rating, whereas some federal and water company communication received a "D" grade. More than 90% of households obtained safe water from distribution centers or stores during the emergency. We conclude that the spill had major economic impact with substantial numbers of individuals reporting incident-related illnesses and psychological distress. Authorities were successful supplying emergency drinking water, but less so with risk communication.

  20. Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolph, Rebecca J.; Mahoney, Andrew R.; Walsh, John; Loring, Philip A.

    2018-05-01

    Using thresholds of physical climate variables developed from community observations, together with two large-scale datasets, we have produced local indices directly relevant to the impacts of a reduced sea ice cover on Alaska coastal communities. The indices include the number of false freeze-ups defined by transient exceedances of ice concentration prior to a corresponding exceedance that persists, false break-ups, timing of freeze-up and break-up, length of the open water duration, number of days when the winds preclude hunting via boat (wind speed threshold exceedances), the number of wind events conducive to geomorphological work or damage to infrastructure from ocean waves, and the number of these wind events with on- and along-shore components promoting water setup along the coastline. We demonstrate how community observations can inform use of large-scale datasets to derive these locally relevant indices. The two primary large-scale datasets are the Historical Sea Ice Atlas for Alaska and the atmospheric output from a regional climate model used to downscale the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis. We illustrate the variability and trends of these indices by application to the rural Alaska communities of Kotzebue, Shishmaref, and Utqiaġvik (previously Barrow), although the same procedure and metrics can be applied to other coastal communities. Over the 1979-2014 time period, there has been a marked increase in the number of combined false freeze-ups and false break-ups as well as the number of days too windy for hunting via boat for all three communities, especially Utqiaġvik. At Utqiaġvik, there has been an approximate tripling of the number of wind events conducive to coastline erosion from 1979 to 2014. We have also found a delay in freeze-up and earlier break-up, leading to a lengthened open water period for all of the communities examined.

  1. Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Rolph

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Using thresholds of physical climate variables developed from community observations, together with two large-scale datasets, we have produced local indices directly relevant to the impacts of a reduced sea ice cover on Alaska coastal communities. The indices include the number of false freeze-ups defined by transient exceedances of ice concentration prior to a corresponding exceedance that persists, false break-ups, timing of freeze-up and break-up, length of the open water duration, number of days when the winds preclude hunting via boat (wind speed threshold exceedances, the number of wind events conducive to geomorphological work or damage to infrastructure from ocean waves, and the number of these wind events with on- and along-shore components promoting water setup along the coastline. We demonstrate how community observations can inform use of large-scale datasets to derive these locally relevant indices. The two primary large-scale datasets are the Historical Sea Ice Atlas for Alaska and the atmospheric output from a regional climate model used to downscale the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis. We illustrate the variability and trends of these indices by application to the rural Alaska communities of Kotzebue, Shishmaref, and Utqiaġvik (previously Barrow, although the same procedure and metrics can be applied to other coastal communities. Over the 1979–2014 time period, there has been a marked increase in the number of combined false freeze-ups and false break-ups as well as the number of days too windy for hunting via boat for all three communities, especially Utqiaġvik. At Utqiaġvik, there has been an approximate tripling of the number of wind events conducive to coastline erosion from 1979 to 2014. We have also found a delay in freeze-up and earlier break-up, leading to a lengthened open water period for all of the communities examined.

  2. Impact of energy efficiency measures on the CO{sub 2} emissions in the residential sector, a large scale analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hens, H.; Verbeeck, G.; Verdonck, B. [Department of Civil Engineering, Laboratory for Building Physics, Leuven (Belgium)

    2000-07-01

    Like all industrialised countries, Belgium accepted to diminish its greenhouse gas emissions in the frame of the Kyoto agreement. On top of the list figures CO{sub 2}. A major emission source for CO{sub 2} is burning fossil fuels. As the residential sector accounts for 28% of the country's annual energy consumption and as this consumption mainly concerns fossil fuels, it has an equally important share in the CO{sub 2} release. Hence, at first sight, the best policy for a decrease is by improving the energy efficiency. The question to be solved, however, is which improvement could generate the reduction needed? This study discusses a methodology and comments simulations that help in answering that question. The results are not as simple as one should like. The housing stock in fact acts as a conservatory system. For the case being, the impact of energy efficient new construction on the CO{sub 2} release remains quite marginal if the period considered does not extend beyond a decade. The effect becomes significant only over a longer period, on condition that more stringent energy efficiency measures are combined with a shift from new construction to retrofit and reconstruction. Also a diminishing increase in the number of households may help in reducing energy consumption and CO{sub 2} release. (author)

  3. Large scale tracking algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Ross L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Love, Joshua Alan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Melgaard, David Kennett [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Karelitz, David B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pitts, Todd Alan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Zollweg, Joshua David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Anderson, Dylan Z. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nandy, Prabal [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Whitlow, Gary L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bender, Daniel A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Byrne, Raymond Harry [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Low signal-to-noise data processing algorithms for improved detection, tracking, discrimination and situational threat assessment are a key research challenge. As sensor technologies progress, the number of pixels will increase signi cantly. This will result in increased resolution, which could improve object discrimination, but unfortunately, will also result in a significant increase in the number of potential targets to track. Many tracking techniques, like multi-hypothesis trackers, suffer from a combinatorial explosion as the number of potential targets increase. As the resolution increases, the phenomenology applied towards detection algorithms also changes. For low resolution sensors, "blob" tracking is the norm. For higher resolution data, additional information may be employed in the detection and classfication steps. The most challenging scenarios are those where the targets cannot be fully resolved, yet must be tracked and distinguished for neighboring closely spaced objects. Tracking vehicles in an urban environment is an example of such a challenging scenario. This report evaluates several potential tracking algorithms for large-scale tracking in an urban environment.

  4. Delta lobe degradation and hurricane impacts governing large-scale coastal behavior, South-central Louisiana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miner, M.D.; Kulp, M.A.; FitzGerald, D.M.; Flocks, J.G.; Weathers, H.D.

    2009-01-01

    A large deficit in the coastal sediment budget, high rates of relative sea-level rise (???0.9 cm/year), and storm-induced current and wave erosion are forcing barrier shoreface retreat along the periphery of the Mississippi River delta plain. Additionally, conversion of interior wetlands to open water has increased the bay tidal prism, resulting in degradation of barrier islands due to inlet widening, formation of new inlets, and sediment sequestration at ebb-tidal deltas. Single-beam bathymetric surveys along a 165-km stretch of south-central Louisiana barrier coast, from Raccoon Point in Terrebonne Parish to Sandy Point in Plaquemines Parish, were conducted in 2006. These data, combined with historical bathymetry from three time periods (dating to the 1880s), provide a series of digital elevation models that were used to calculate sediment volumetric changes and determine long-term erosional-depositional trends. Dominant patterns during the 125-year period include (1) erosion of ???1.6????????109 m3 from the shoreface, forcing up to 3 km of shoreface retreat, (2) sediment deposition in coastal bights and at ebb-tidal deltas, and (3) a combined increase in tidal inlet cross-sectional area from ???41,400 m2 to ???139,500 m 2. Bathymetric and shoreline change datasets separated by shorter time periods (sub-annual) demonstrate that these long-term trends are driven by processes associated with major hurricane impacts, and that rates of shoreface erosion are an order of magnitude greater during active hurricane seasons compared to long-term trends. ?? 2009 Springer-Verlag.

  5. Migration and rural women in China: a look at the gendered impact of large-scale migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davin, D

    1996-01-01

    This preliminary study explored the impact on women of economic migration from rural to urban areas in China. Data were obtained from the 1990 census. The study focused on economic migration, which accounted for 29% of the reasons for moving. In some provinces such as Guangdong, economic reasons account for almost 60% of in-migrants. Interprovincial migration is primarily economic, followed by marriage, which varies widely by province. Migrants tend to assume occupations that are assigned by gender. Male migrants tend to outnumber female migrants, and women are left to farm. Where migration is gender balanced, the sex ratio in the sending area may be stable, but gender division within individual households is upset. Children may be tended by grandparents in rural areas, when their parents find work in cities. Migrants in urban areas do not have the same rights as permanent urban household registrants and cannot send their children to school or use free or low cost health care. Migrants keep in close contact with home villages. Urban migrants without permanent household registration status face the loss of welfare benefits in urban areas as well as the high cost of purchase of a permanent residence permit, social discrimination, stigma from mass media portrayals, and poor housing. Most rural-urban migration is circular. Female return migrants bring back cash remittances and new family roles and status. Rural migrants are exposed to new urban experiences that are retold in rural areas and that may pose difficulties in readjustment to the hardships of rural life. Urban fertility is delayed and lower than that of rural fertility.

  6. Impact of target mRNA structure on siRNA silencing efficiency: A large-scale study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gredell, Joseph A; Berger, Angela K; Walton, S Patrick

    2008-07-01

    The selection of active siRNAs is generally based on identifying siRNAs with certain sequence and structural properties. However, the efficiency of RNA interference has also been shown to depend on the structure of the target mRNA, primarily through studies using exogenous transcripts with well-defined secondary structures in the vicinity of the target sequence. While these studies provide a means for examining the impact of target sequence and structure independently, the predicted secondary structures for these transcripts are often not reflective of structures that form in full-length, native mRNAs where interactions can occur between relatively remote segments of the mRNAs. Here, using a combination of experimental results and analysis of a large dataset, we demonstrate that the accessibility of certain local target structures on the mRNA is an important determinant in the gene silencing ability of siRNAs. siRNAs targeting the enhanced green fluorescent protein were chosen using a minimal siRNA selection algorithm followed by classification based on the predicted minimum free energy structures of the target transcripts. Transfection into HeLa and HepG2 cells revealed that siRNAs targeting regions of the mRNA predicted to have unpaired 5'- and 3'-ends resulted in greater gene silencing than regions predicted to have other types of secondary structure. These results were confirmed by analysis of gene silencing data from previously published siRNAs, which showed that mRNA target regions unpaired at either the 5'-end or 3'-end were silenced, on average, approximately 10% more strongly than target regions unpaired in the center or primarily paired throughout. We found this effect to be independent of the structure of the siRNA guide strand. Taken together, these results suggest minimal requirements for nucleation of hybridization between the siRNA guide strand and mRNA and that both mRNA and guide strand structure should be considered when choosing candidate si

  7. Changes in Pore Water Quality After Peatland Restoration: Assessment of a Large-Scale, Replicated Before-After-Control-Impact Study in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menberu, Meseret Walle; Marttila, Hannu; Tahvanainen, Teemu; Kotiaho, Janne S.; Hokkanen, Reijo; Kløve, Bjørn; Ronkanen, Anna-Kaisa

    2017-10-01

    Drainage is known to affect peatland natural hydrology and water quality, but peatland restoration is considered to ameliorate peatland degradation. Using a replicated BACIPS (Before-After-Control-Impact Paired Series) design, we investigated 24 peatlands, all drained for forestry and subsequently restored, and 19 pristine control boreal peatlands with high temporal and spatial resolution data on hydroclimate and pore water quality. In drained conditions, total nitrogen (Ntot), total phosphorus (Ptot), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in pore water were several-fold higher than observed at pristine control sites, highlighting the impacts of long-term drainage on pore water quality. In general, pore water DOC and Ntot decreased after restoration measures but still remained significantly higher than at pristine control sites, indicating long time lags in restoration effects. Different peatland classes and trophic levels (vegetation gradient) responded differently to restoration, primarily due to altered hydrology and varying acidity levels. Sites that were hydrologically overrestored (inundated) showed higher Ptot, Ntot, and DOC than well-restored or insufficiently restored sites, indicating the need to optimize natural-like hydrological regimes when restoring peatlands drained for forestry. Rich fens (median pH 6.2-6.6) showed lower pore water Ptot, Ntot, and DOC than intermediate and poor peats (pH 4.0-4.6) both before and after restoration. Nutrients and DOC in pore water increased in the first year postrestoration but decreased thereafter. The most important variables related to pore water quality were trophic level, peatland class, water table level, and soil and air temperature.

  8. Participation of the public in the licensing of large-scale projects with environmental impact - theoretical framework and project conceptual outline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bechmann, G.; Gloede, F.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses the dimensions and environmental impacts of large-scale projects, and public participation as an element of institutionalized problem management. The legal protection functions, the administrative and socio-political functions are subsumed under a concept of function which defines a function as a synthesis of a variety of possibilities, so that different 'achievements' are expected from public participation, depending on the reference system chosen for comparison. The paper explains the purpose of the examination of public participation and its functions, the design of analytical procedure which covers the three main stages of 'input, legal procedure, output', and instruments and aspects such as interdisciplinarity, representativity, comparison, relation between empirical research and the principles of the law. (HSCH) [de

  9. Analysis of the Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Biomass Resources for Energy and Materials in the Netherlands. Macro-economics biobased synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoefnagels, R.; Dornburg, V.; Faaij, A.; Banse, M.

    2009-03-01

    The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (PGG), part of the Energy Transition in The Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to conduct research on the macro-economic impact of large scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including technoeconomic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a topdown study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down and bottom-up modelling work are reported separately. The results of the synthesis of the modelling work are presented in this report

  10. Analysis of the Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Biomass Resources for Energy and Materials in the Netherlands. Appendix 2. Macro-economic Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banse, M.

    2009-03-01

    The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (known as PGG), which is part of the Energy Transition programme in the Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to study the macro-economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including techno-economic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a top-down study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down study (part 2) including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources, are presented in this report

  11. Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S. N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

  12. Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Yuan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.

  13. Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2010-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

  14. Linear infrastructure impacts on landscape hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiter, Keren G; Prober, Suzanne M; Possingham, Hugh P; Westcott, Fiona; Hobbs, Richard J

    2018-01-15

    The extent of roads and other forms of linear infrastructure is burgeoning worldwide, but their impacts are inadequately understood and thus poorly mitigated. Previous studies have identified many potential impacts, including alterations to the hydrological functions and soil processes upon which ecosystems depend. However, these impacts have seldom been quantified at a regional level, particularly in arid and semi-arid systems where the gap in knowledge is the greatest, and impacts potentially the most severe. To explore the effects of extensive track, road, and rail networks on surface hydrology at a regional level we assessed over 1000 km of linear infrastructure, including approx. 300 locations where ephemeral streams crossed linear infrastructure, in the largely intact landscapes of Australia's Great Western Woodlands. We found a high level of association between linear infrastructure and altered surface hydrology, with erosion and pooling 5 and 6 times as likely to occur on-road than off-road on average (1.06 erosional and 0.69 pooling features km -1 on vehicle tracks, compared with 0.22 and 0.12 km -1 , off-road, respectively). Erosion severity was greater in the presence of tracks, and 98% of crossings of ephemeral streamlines showed some evidence of impact on water movement (flow impedance (62%); diversion of flows (73%); flow concentration (76%); and/or channel initiation (31%)). Infrastructure type, pastoral land use, culvert presence, soil clay content and erodibility, mean annual rainfall, rainfall erosivity, topography and bare soil cover influenced the frequency and severity of these impacts. We conclude that linear infrastructure frequently affects ephemeral stream flows and intercepts natural overland and near-surface flows, artificially changing site-scale moisture regimes, with some parts of the landscape becoming abnormally wet and other parts becoming water-starved. In addition, linear infrastructure frequently triggers or exacerbates erosion

  15. Macro-economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass resources for energy and materials on a national level—A combined approach for the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoefnagels, Ric; Banse, Martin; Dornburg, Veronika; Faaij, André

    2013-01-01

    Biomass is considered one of the most important options in the transition to a sustainable energy system with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increased security of enegry supply. In order to facilitate this transition with targeted policies and implementation strategies, it is of vital importance to understand the economic benefits, uncertainties and risks of this transition. This article presents a quantification of the economic impacts on value added, employment shares and the trade balance as well as required biomass and avoided primary energy and greenhouse gases related to large scale biomass deployment on a country level (the Netherlands) for different future scenarios to 2030. This is done by using the macro-economic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model LEITAP, capable of quantifying direct and indirect effects of a bio-based economy combined with a spread sheet tool to address underlying technological details. Although the combined approach has limitations, the results of the projections show that substitution of fossil energy carriers by biomass, could have positive economic effects, as well as reducing GHG emissions and fossil energy requirement. Key factors to achieve these targets are enhanced technological development and the import of sustainable biomass resources to the Netherlands. - Highlights: • We analyse large scale production of bioenergy and biochemicals in the Netherlands. • The scenarios include up to 30% substitution of fossil fuels by biomass in 2030. • Resulting in strong greenhouse gas savings and positive macro-economic effects. • Large amounts of imported biomass are required to meet the domestic demand. • This requires high rates of technological change and strict sustainability criteria

  16. Large-scale solar purchasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The principal objective of the project was to participate in the definition of a new IEA task concerning solar procurement (''the Task'') and to assess whether involvement in the task would be in the interest of the UK active solar heating industry. The project also aimed to assess the importance of large scale solar purchasing to UK active solar heating market development and to evaluate the level of interest in large scale solar purchasing amongst potential large scale purchasers (in particular housing associations and housing developers). A further aim of the project was to consider means of stimulating large scale active solar heating purchasing activity within the UK. (author)

  17. The micro-environmental impact of volatile organic compound emissions from large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutta, Tanushree; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Uchimiya, Minori; Kumar, Pawan; Das, Subhasish; Bhattacharya, Satya Sundar; Szulejko, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space can exert significant impacts on the local air chemistry due to human emissions of volatile organics. Variations of air-quality in such small scale can be studied by quantifying fingerprint volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetone, toluene, and isoprene produced during concerts, movie screenings, and sport events (like the Olympics and the World Cup). This review summarizes the extent of VOC accumulation resulting from a large population in a confined area or in a small open area during sporting and other recreational activities. Apart from VOCs emitted directly from human bodies (e.g., perspiration and exhaled breath), those released indirectly from other related sources (e.g., smoking, waste disposal, discharge of food-waste, and use of personal-care products) are also discussed. Although direct and indirect emissions of VOCs from human may constitute <1% of the global atmospheric VOCs budget, unique spatiotemporal variations in VOCs species within a confined space can have unforeseen impacts on the local atmosphere to lead to acute human exposure to harmful pollutants.

  18. The micro-environmental impact of volatile organic compound emissions from large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutta, Tanushree [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ki-Hyun, E-mail: kkim61@hanyang.ac.kr [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of); Uchimiya, Minori [USDA-ARS Southern Regional Research Center, 1100 Robert E. Lee Boulevard, New Orleans, LA 70124 (United States); Kumar, Pawan [Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 11016 (India); Das, Subhasish; Bhattacharya, Satya Sundar [Soil & Agro-Bioengineering Lab, Department of Environmental Science, Tezpur University, Napaam 784028 (India); Szulejko, Jan [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-Ro, Seoul 04763 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-11-15

    Large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space can exert significant impacts on the local air chemistry due to human emissions of volatile organics. Variations of air-quality in such small scale can be studied by quantifying fingerprint volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetone, toluene, and isoprene produced during concerts, movie screenings, and sport events (like the Olympics and the World Cup). This review summarizes the extent of VOC accumulation resulting from a large population in a confined area or in a small open area during sporting and other recreational activities. Apart from VOCs emitted directly from human bodies (e.g., perspiration and exhaled breath), those released indirectly from other related sources (e.g., smoking, waste disposal, discharge of food-waste, and use of personal-care products) are also discussed. Although direct and indirect emissions of VOCs from human may constitute <1% of the global atmospheric VOCs budget, unique spatiotemporal variations in VOCs species within a confined space can have unforeseen impacts on the local atmosphere to lead to acute human exposure to harmful pollutants.

  19. Analysis of the Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Biomass Resources for Energy and Materials in the Netherlands. Appendix 1. Bottom-up Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoefnagels, R.; Dornburg, V.; Faaij, A.; Banse, M.

    2009-03-01

    The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (PGG), part of the Energy Transition in The Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to conduct research on the macro-economic impact of large scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including technoeconomic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a topdown study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down and bottom-up modelling work are reported separately. The results of the synthesis of the modelling work are presented in the main report. This report (part 1) presents scenarios for future biomass use for energy and materials, and analyses the consequences on energy supply, chemical productions, costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with a bottom-up approach. The bottom-up projections, as presented in this report, form the basis for modelling work using the top-down macro-economic model (LEITAP) to assess the economic impact of substituting fossil-based energy carriers with biomass in the Netherlands. The results of the macro-economic modelling work, and the linkage between the results of the bottom-up and top-down work, will be presented in the top-down economic part and synthesis report of this study

  20. Large-scale data analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Gkoulalas-Divanis, Aris

    2014-01-01

    Provides cutting-edge research in large-scale data analytics from diverse scientific areas Surveys varied subject areas and reports on individual results of research in the field Shares many tips and insights into large-scale data analytics from authors and editors with long-term experience and specialization in the field

  1. Investigating the Impact of Shading Effect on the Characteristics of a Large-Scale Grid-Connected PV Power Plant in Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunlin Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Northwest China is an ideal region for large-scale grid-connected PV system installation due to its abundant solar radiation and vast areas. For grid-connected PV systems in this region, one of the key issues is how to reduce the shading effect as much as possible to maximize their power generation. In this paper, a shading simulation model for PV modules is established and its reliability is verified under the standard testing condition (STC in laboratory. Based on the investigation result of a 20 MWp grid-connected PV plant in northwest China, the typical shading phenomena are classified and analyzed individually, such as power distribution buildings shading and wire poles shading, plants and birds droppings shading, and front-row PV arrays shading. A series of experiments is also conducted on-site to evaluate and compare the impacts of different typical shading forms. Finally, some feasible solutions are proposed to avoid or reduce the shading effect of PV system during operation in such region.

  2. Impact of air-sea drag coefficient for latent heat flux on large scale climate in coupled and atmosphere stand-alone simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Olivier; Braconnot, Pascale; Marti, Olivier; Gential, Luc

    2018-05-01

    The turbulent fluxes across the ocean/atmosphere interface represent one of the principal driving forces of the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Despite decades of effort and improvements, representation of these fluxes still presents a challenge due to the small-scale acting turbulent processes compared to the resolved scales of the models. Beyond this subgrid parameterization issue, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of air-sea interactions on the climate system is still lacking. In this paper we investigates the large-scale impacts of the transfer coefficient used to compute turbulent heat fluxes with the IPSL-CM4 climate model in which the surface bulk formula is modified. Analyzing both atmosphere and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM, OAGCM) simulations allows us to study the direct effect and the mechanisms of adjustment to this modification. We focus on the representation of latent heat flux in the tropics. We show that the heat transfer coefficients are highly similar for a given parameterization between AGCM and OAGCM simulations. Although the same areas are impacted in both kind of simulations, the differences in surface heat fluxes are substantial. A regional modification of heat transfer coefficient has more impact than uniform modification in AGCM simulations while in OAGCM simulations, the opposite is observed. By studying the global energetics and the atmospheric circulation response to the modification, we highlight the role of the ocean in dampening a large part of the disturbance. Modification of the heat exchange coefficient modifies the way the coupled system works due to the link between atmospheric circulation and SST, and the different feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere. The adjustment that takes place implies a balance of net incoming solar radiation that is the same in all simulations. As there is no change in model physics other than drag coefficient, we obtain similar latent heat flux

  3. ENSO impact on hydrology in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavado-Casimiro, W. S.; Felipe, O.; Silvestre, E.; Bourrel, L.

    2013-04-01

    The El Niño and La Niña impacts on the hydrology of Peru were assessed based on discharge data (1968-2006) of 20 river catchments distributed over three drainage regions in Peru: 14 in the Pacific Coast (PC), 3 in the Lake Titicaca (TL) region, and 3 in the Amazonas (AM). To classify the El Niño and La Niña events, we used the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) based on hydrological years (September to August). Using the SOI values, the events were re-classified as strong El Niño (SEN), moderate El Niño (MEN), normal years (N), moderate La Niña (MLN) and strong La Niña (SLN). On average during the SEN years, sharp increases occurred in the discharges in the north central area of the PC and decreases in the remaining discharge stations that were analyzed, while in the years of MEN events, these changes show different responses than those of the SEN. During the years classified as La Niña, positive changes are mostly observed in the majority of the stations in the rivers located in the center of Peru's Pacific Coast. Another important result of this work is that the Ilave River (south of the Titicaca watershed) shows higher positive (negative) impacts during La Niña (El Niño) years, a fact that is not clearly seen in the rivers of the northern part of the Titicaca watershed (Ramis and Huancane rivers).

  4. An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

    2015-01-01

    The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

  5. Large-scale grid management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langdal, Bjoern Inge; Eggen, Arnt Ove

    2003-01-01

    The network companies in the Norwegian electricity industry now have to establish a large-scale network management, a concept essentially characterized by (1) broader focus (Broad Band, Multi Utility,...) and (2) bigger units with large networks and more customers. Research done by SINTEF Energy Research shows so far that the approaches within large-scale network management may be structured according to three main challenges: centralization, decentralization and out sourcing. The article is part of a planned series

  6. Modification of input datasets for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction based on large scale climatic indices and weather generator

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Daňhelka, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 528, September (2015), s. 720-733 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : sea sonal forecasting * ESP * large-scale climate * weather generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.043, year: 2015

  7. Use of large-scale multi-configuration EMI measurements to characterize heterogeneous subsurface structures and their impact on crop productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogi, Cosimo; Huisman, Johan Alexander; Kaufmann, Manuela Sarah; von Hebel, Christian; van der Kruk, Jan; Vereecken, Harry

    2017-04-01

    Soil subsurface structures can play a key role in crop performance, especially during water stress periods. Geophysical techniques like electromagnetic induction EMI have been shown to be able of providing information about dominant shallow subsurface features. However, previous work with EMI has typically not reached beyond the field scale. The objective of this study is to use large-scale multi-configuration EMI to characterize patterns of soil structural organization (layering and texture) and the associated impact on crop vegetation at the km2 scale. For this, we carried out an intensive measurement campaign and collected high spatial resolution multi-configuration EMI data on an agricultural area of approx. 1 km2 (102 ha) near Selhausen (North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany) with a maximum depth of investigation of around 2.5 m. We measured using two EMI instruments simultaneously with a total of nine coil configurations. The instruments were placed inside polyethylene sleds that were pulled by an all-terrain-vehicle along parallel lines with a spacing of 2 to 2.5 m. The driving speed was between 5 and 7 km h-1 and we used a 0.2 Hz sampling frequency to obtain an in-line resolution of approximately 0.3 m. The survey area consists of almost 50 different fields managed in different way. The EMI measurements were collected between April and December 2016 within a few days after the harvest of each field. After data acquisition, EMI data were automatically filtered, temperature corrected, and interpolated onto a common grid. The resulting EMI maps allowed us to identify three main areas with different subsurface heterogeneities. The differences between these areas are likely related to the late quaternary geological history (Pleistocene and Holocene) of the area that resulted in spatially variable soil texture and layering, which has a strong impact on spatio-temporal soil water content variability. The high resolution surveys also allowed us to identify small scale

  8. The impact of a large-scale quality improvement programme on work engagement: preliminary results from a national cross-sectional-survey of the 'Productive Ward'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Mark; Wells, John S G; Butterworth, Tony

    2014-12-01

    Quality improvement (QI) Programmes, like the Productive Ward: Releasing-time-to-care initiative, aim to 'engage' and 'empower' ward teams to actively participate, innovate and lead quality improvement at the front line. However, little is known about the relationship and impact that QI work has on the 'engagement' of the clinical teams who participate and vice-versa. This paper explores and examines the impact of a large-scale QI programme, the Productive Ward, on the 'work engagement' of the nurses and ward teams involved. Using the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES), we surveyed, measured and analysed work engagement in a representative test group of hospital-based ward teams who had recently commenced the latest phase of the national 'Productive Ward' initiative in Ireland and compared them to a control group of similar size and matched (as far as is possible) on variables such as ward size, employment grade and clinical specialty area. 338 individual datasets were recorded, n=180 (53.6%) from the Productive Ward group, and n=158 (46.4%) from the control group; the overall response rate was 67%, and did not differ significantly between the Productive Ward and control groups. The work engagement mean score (±standard deviation) in the Productive group was 4.33(±0.88), and 4.07(±1.06) in the control group, representing a modest but statistically significant between-group difference (p=0.013, independent samples t-test). Similarly modest differences were observed in all three dimensions of the work engagement construct. Employment grade and the clinical specialty area were also significantly related to the work engagement score (pengagement (the vigour, absorption and dedication) of ward-based teams. The use and suitability of the UWES as an appropriate measure of 'engagement' in QI interventions was confirmed. The engagement of nurses and front-line clinical teams is a major component of creating, developing and sustaining a culture of improvement. Copyright

  9. Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Lindner, M.; Lexer, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to

  10. State of the Art in Large-Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochsner, Tyson E.; Cosh, Michael Harold; Cuenca, Richard H.; Dorigo, Wouter; Draper, Clara S.; Hagimoto, Yutaka; Kerr, Yan H.; Larson, Kristine M.; Njoku, Eni Gerald; Small, Eric E.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Soil moisture is an essential climate variable influencing land atmosphere interactions, an essential hydrologic variable impacting rainfall runoff processes, an essential ecological variable regulating net ecosystem exchange, and an essential agricultural variable constraining food security. Large-scale soil moisture monitoring has advanced in recent years creating opportunities to transform scientific understanding of soil moisture and related processes. These advances are being driven by researchers from a broad range of disciplines, but this complicates collaboration and communication. For some applications, the science required to utilize large-scale soil moisture data is poorly developed. In this review, we describe the state of the art in large-scale soil moisture monitoring and identify some critical needs for research to optimize the use of increasingly available soil moisture data. We review representative examples of 1) emerging in situ and proximal sensing techniques, 2) dedicated soil moisture remote sensing missions, 3) soil moisture monitoring networks, and 4) applications of large-scale soil moisture measurements. Significant near-term progress seems possible in the use of large-scale soil moisture data for drought monitoring. Assimilation of soil moisture data for meteorological or hydrologic forecasting also shows promise, but significant challenges related to model structures and model errors remain. Little progress has been made yet in the use of large-scale soil moisture observations within the context of ecological or agricultural modeling. Opportunities abound to advance the science and practice of large-scale soil moisture monitoring for the sake of improved Earth system monitoring, modeling, and forecasting.

  11. Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. A. J. Van Lanen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale hydrological drought studies have demonstrated spatial and temporal patterns in observed trends, and considerable difference exists among global hydrological models in their ability to reproduce these patterns. In this study a controlled modeling experiment has been set up to systematically explore the role of climate and physical catchment structure (soils and groundwater systems to better understand underlying drought-generating mechanisms. Daily climate data (1958–2001 of 1495 grid cells across the world were selected that represent Köppen–Geiger major climate types. These data were fed into a conceptual hydrological model. Nine realizations of physical catchment structure were defined for each grid cell, i.e., three soils with different soil moisture supply capacity and three groundwater systems (quickly, intermediately and slowly responding. Hydrological drought characteristics (number, duration and standardized deficit volume were identified from time series of daily discharge. Summary statistics showed that the equatorial and temperate climate types (A- and C-climates had about twice as many drought events as the arid and polar types (B- and E-climates, and the durations of more extreme droughts were about half the length. Selected soils under permanent grassland were found to have a minor effect on hydrological drought characteristics, whereas groundwater systems had major impact. Groundwater systems strongly controlled the hydrological drought characteristics of all climate types, but particularly those of the wetter A-, C- and D-climates because of higher recharge. The median number of droughts for quickly responding groundwater systems was about three times higher than for slowly responding systems. Groundwater systems substantially affected the duration, particularly of the more extreme drought events. Bivariate probability distributions of drought duration and standardized deficit for combinations of K

  12. Large-scale multimedia modeling applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Droppo, J.G. Jr.; Buck, J.W.; Whelan, G.; Strenge, D.L.; Castleton, K.J.; Gelston, G.M.

    1995-08-01

    Over the past decade, the US Department of Energy (DOE) and other agencies have faced increasing scrutiny for a wide range of environmental issues related to past and current practices. A number of large-scale applications have been undertaken that required analysis of large numbers of potential environmental issues over a wide range of environmental conditions and contaminants. Several of these applications, referred to here as large-scale applications, have addressed long-term public health risks using a holistic approach for assessing impacts from potential waterborne and airborne transport pathways. Multimedia models such as the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) were designed for use in such applications. MEPAS integrates radioactive and hazardous contaminants impact computations for major exposure routes via air, surface water, ground water, and overland flow transport. A number of large-scale applications of MEPAS have been conducted to assess various endpoints for environmental and human health impacts. These applications are described in terms of lessons learned in the development of an effective approach for large-scale applications

  13. Large scale structure and baryogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirilova, D.P.; Chizhov, M.V.

    2001-08-01

    We discuss a possible connection between the large scale structure formation and the baryogenesis in the universe. An update review of the observational indications for the presence of a very large scale 120h -1 Mpc in the distribution of the visible matter of the universe is provided. The possibility to generate a periodic distribution with the characteristic scale 120h -1 Mpc through a mechanism producing quasi-periodic baryon density perturbations during inflationary stage, is discussed. The evolution of the baryon charge density distribution is explored in the framework of a low temperature boson condensate baryogenesis scenario. Both the observed very large scale of a the visible matter distribution in the universe and the observed baryon asymmetry value could naturally appear as a result of the evolution of a complex scalar field condensate, formed at the inflationary stage. Moreover, for some model's parameters a natural separation of matter superclusters from antimatter ones can be achieved. (author)

  14. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  15. Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a continuous distributed hydrological model: impacts on the hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Campo, Lorenzo; Cenci, Luca; Silvestro, Francesco; Delogu, Fabio; Boni, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce in-situ data. This work investigates the impact of the assimilation of different remote sensing products on the hydrological cycle by using a continuous physically based distributed hydrological model. Three soil moisture products derived by ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) are used to update the model state variables. The satellite-derived products are assimilated into the hydrological model using different assimilation techniques: a simple nudging and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Moreover two assimilation strategies are evaluated to assess the impact of assimilating the satellite products at model spatial resolution or at the satellite scale. The experiments are carried out for three Italian catchments on multi year period. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST, evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics are tested and discussed.

  16. 56 Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    `123456789jkl''''#

    Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of Lake Tana, Northwestern. Ethiopia. 1Amare ... and lake level data were evaluated to identify change in climate and lake level. The annual ... economic importance. The total area of ...

  17. Quantification of climatic feedbacks on the Caspian Sea level variability and impacts from the Caspian Sea on the large-scale atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arpe, Klaus; Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Liu, Xin-Yu; Leroy, Suzanne A. G.

    2018-05-01

    the water budget of the whole catchment area due to feedbacks with the precipitation. This suggests a high proportion of recycling of water within the CS catchment area. When using a model which does not have a correct CS size, the effect of a reduced CS area on the water budget for the whole CS catchment can be estimated by taking the evaporation over the sea multiplied by the proportional changed area. However, only 50% of that change is ending up in the water balance of the total catchment of the CS. A formula is provided. This method has been applied to estimate the CSL during the Last Glacial Maximum to be at - 30 to - 33 m. The experiments show as well that the CS has an impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation with a widened Aleutian 500 hPa height field trough with increasing CS sizes. It is possible to validate this aspect with observational data.

  18. Impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture and LST on the hydrological cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Delogu, Fabio; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Campo, Lorenzo; Boni, Giorgio

    2014-05-01

    The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce ground based data. The aim of this work is to investigate the impacts on the performances of a distributed hydrological model (Continuum) of the assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture products and Land Surface (LST). In this work three different soil moisture (SM) products, derived by ASCAT sensor, are used. These data are provided by the EUMETSAT's H-SAF (Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management) program. The considered soil moisture products are: large scale surface soil moisture (SM OBS 1 - H07), small scale surface soil moisture (SM OBS 2 - H08) and profile index in the roots region (SM DAS 2 - H14). These data are compared with soil moisture estimated by Continuum model on the Orba catchment (800 km2), in the northern part of Italy, for the period July 2012-June 2013. Different assimilation experiments have been performed. The first experiment consists in the assimilation of the SM products by using a simple Nudging technique; the second one is the assimilation of only LST data, derived from MSG satellite, and the third is the assimilation of both SM products and LST. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST and soil moisture dynamics were tested.

  19. Impact of incomplete metal coverage on the electrical properties of metal-CNT contacts: A large-scale ab initio study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fediai, Artem, E-mail: artem.fediai@nano.tu-dresden.de; Ryndyk, Dmitry A. [Institute for Materials Science and Max Bergman Center of Biomaterials, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany); Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany); Seifert, Gotthard [Theoretical Chemistry, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany); Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany); Dresden Center for Computational Materials Science, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany); Mothes, Sven; Schroter, Michael; Claus, Martin [Chair for Electron Devices and Integrated Circuits, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany); Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany); Cuniberti, Gianaurelio [Institute for Materials Science and Max Bergman Center of Biomaterials, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany); Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany); Dresden Center for Computational Materials Science, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden (Germany)

    2016-09-05

    Using a dedicated combination of the non-equilibrium Green function formalism and large-scale density functional theory calculations, we investigated how incomplete metal coverage influences two of the most important electrical properties of carbon nanotube (CNT)-based transistors: contact resistance and its scaling with contact length, and maximum current. These quantities have been derived from parameter-free simulations of atomic systems that are as close as possible to experimental geometries. Physical mechanisms that govern these dependences have been identified for various metals, representing different CNT-metal interaction strengths from chemisorption to physisorption. Our results pave the way for an application-oriented design of CNT-metal contacts.

  20. Large-scale solar heat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tolonen, J.; Konttinen, P.; Lund, P. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). Dept. of Engineering Physics and Mathematics

    1998-12-31

    In this project a large domestic solar heating system was built and a solar district heating system was modelled and simulated. Objectives were to improve the performance and reduce costs of a large-scale solar heating system. As a result of the project the benefit/cost ratio can be increased by 40 % through dimensioning and optimising the system at the designing stage. (orig.)

  1. Problems with the dating of sediment core using excess 210Pb in a freshwater system impacted by large scale watershed changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskaran, Mark; Nix, Joe; Kuyper, Clark; Karunakara, N.

    2014-01-01

    Pb-210 dating of freshwater and coastal sediments have been extensively conducted over the past 40 years for historical pollution reconstruction studies, sediment focusing, sediment accumulation and mixing rate determination. In areas where there is large scale disturbance of sediments and the watershed, the vertical profiles of excess 210 Pb ( 210 Pb xs ) could provide erroneous or less reliable information on sediment accumulation rates. We analyzed one sediment core from Hendrix Lake in southwestern Arkansas for excess 210 Pb and 137 Cs. There is no decrease in excess 210 Pb activity with depth while the 137 Cs profile indicates sharp peak corresponding to 1963 and the 137 Cs penetration depth of 137 Cs corresponds to 1952. The historical data on the accelerated mercury mining during 1931–1944 resulted in large-scale Hg input to this watershed. Using the peak Hg activity as a time marker, the obtained sediment accumulation rates agree well with the 137 Cs-based rates. Four independent evidences (two-marker events based on 137 Cs and two marker events based on Hg mining activity) result in about the same sedimentation rates and thus, we endorse earlier suggestion that 210 Pb profile always needs to be validated with at least one another independent method. We also present a concise discussion on what important factors that can affect the vertical profiles of 210 Pb xs in relatively smaller lakes

  2. An Analytical Solution for the Impact of Vegetation Changes on Hydrological Partitioning Within the Budyko Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shulei; Yang, Yuting; McVicar, Tim R.; Yang, Dawen

    2018-01-01

    Vegetation change is a critical factor that profoundly affects the terrestrial water cycle. Here we derive an analytical solution for the impact of vegetation changes on hydrological partitioning within the Budyko framework. This is achieved by deriving an analytical expression between leaf area index (LAI) change and the Budyko land surface parameter (n) change, through the combination of a steady state ecohydrological model with an analytical carbon cost-benefit model for plant rooting depth. Using China where vegetation coverage has experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades as a study case, we quantify the impact of LAI changes on the hydrological partitioning during 1982-2010 and predict the future influence of these changes for the 21st century using climate model projections. Results show that LAI change exhibits an increasing importance on altering hydrological partitioning as climate becomes drier. In semiarid and arid China, increased LAI has led to substantial streamflow reductions over the past three decades (on average -8.5% in 1990s and -11.7% in 2000s compared to the 1980s baseline), and this decreasing trend in streamflow is projected to continue toward the end of this century due to predicted LAI increases. Our result calls for caution regarding the large-scale revegetation activities currently being implemented in arid and semiarid China, which may result in serious future water scarcity issues here. The analytical model developed here is physically based and suitable for simultaneously assessing both vegetation changes and climate change induced changes to streamflow globally.

  3. Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-04-01

    Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be

  4. Impact of tissue atrophy on high-pass filtered MRI signal phase-based assessment in large-scale group-comparison studies: A simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweser, Ferdinand; Dwyer, Michael G.; Deistung, Andreas; Reichenbach, Jürgen R.; Zivadinov, Robert

    2013-10-01

    The assessment of abnormal accumulation of tissue iron in the basal ganglia nuclei and in white matter plaques using the gradient echo magnetic resonance signal phase has become a research focus in many neurodegenerative diseases such as multiple sclerosis or Parkinson’s disease. A common and natural approach is to calculate the mean high-pass-filtered phase of previously delineated brain structures. Unfortunately, the interpretation of such an analysis requires caution: in this paper we demonstrate that regional gray matter atrophy, which is concomitant with many neurodegenerative diseases, may itself directly result in a phase shift seemingly indicative of increased iron concentration even without any real change in the tissue iron concentration. Although this effect is relatively small results of large-scale group comparisons may be driven by anatomical changes rather than by changes of the iron concentration.

  5. The impact of changes in parameterizations of surface drag and vertical diffusion on the large-scale circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindvall, Jenny; Svensson, Gunilla; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-06-01

    Simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) are used to analyze the sensitivity of the large-scale circulation to changes in parameterizations of orographic surface drag and vertical diffusion. Many GCMs and NWP models use enhanced turbulent mixing in stable conditions to improve simulations, while CAM5 cuts off all turbulence at high stabilities and instead employs a strong orographic surface stress parameterization, known as turbulent mountain stress (TMS). TMS completely dominates the surface stress over land and reduces the near-surface wind speeds compared to simulations without TMS. It is found that TMS is generally beneficial for the large-scale circulation as it improves zonal wind speeds, Arctic sea level pressure and zonal anomalies of the 500-hPa stream function, compared to ERA-Interim. It also alleviates atmospheric blocking frequency biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Using a scheme that instead allows for a modest increase of turbulent diffusion at higher stabilities only in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) appears to in some aspects have a similar, although much smaller, beneficial effect as TMS. Enhanced mixing throughout the atmospheric column, however, degrades the CAM5 simulation. Evaluating the simulations in comparison with detailed measurements at two locations reveals that TMS is detrimental for the PBL at the flat grassland ARM Southern Great Plains site, giving too strong wind turning and too deep PBLs. At the Sodankylä forest site, the effect of TMS is smaller due to the larger local vegetation roughness. At both sites, all simulations substantially overestimate the boundary layer ageostrophic flow.

  6. Japanese large-scale interferometers

    CERN Document Server

    Kuroda, K; Miyoki, S; Ishizuka, H; Taylor, C T; Yamamoto, K; Miyakawa, O; Fujimoto, M K; Kawamura, S; Takahashi, R; Yamazaki, T; Arai, K; Tatsumi, D; Ueda, A; Fukushima, M; Sato, S; Shintomi, T; Yamamoto, A; Suzuki, T; Saitô, Y; Haruyama, T; Sato, N; Higashi, Y; Uchiyama, T; Tomaru, T; Tsubono, K; Ando, M; Takamori, A; Numata, K; Ueda, K I; Yoneda, H; Nakagawa, K; Musha, M; Mio, N; Moriwaki, S; Somiya, K; Araya, A; Kanda, N; Telada, S; Sasaki, M; Tagoshi, H; Nakamura, T; Tanaka, T; Ohara, K

    2002-01-01

    The objective of the TAMA 300 interferometer was to develop advanced technologies for kilometre scale interferometers and to observe gravitational wave events in nearby galaxies. It was designed as a power-recycled Fabry-Perot-Michelson interferometer and was intended as a step towards a final interferometer in Japan. The present successful status of TAMA is presented. TAMA forms a basis for LCGT (large-scale cryogenic gravitational wave telescope), a 3 km scale cryogenic interferometer to be built in the Kamioka mine in Japan, implementing cryogenic mirror techniques. The plan of LCGT is schematically described along with its associated R and D.

  7. Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-11-15

    Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on

  8. Evaluation of the social and economical impacts related to the large scale production of bioethanol in Brazil; Avaliacao dos impactos socioeconomicos relacionados a producao em larga escala do bioetanol no Brasil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-10-15

    The social and economical impacts related to the large scale bio ethanol production have been evaluated considering the replacement of 10% of gasoline equivalent consumption in the world forecasting for the year 2025, evaluating the impacts not only in the sectors directly involved (bio ethanol and sugar cane production), but also taking into account the effects on all production chain of the economy (direct, indirect and induced effects). For this analysis, an income-product model was developed allowing to simulate production gains during the agricultural phase, and to combine different technologies for the production of bio ethanol, for quantification the impacts of the forwarding the second generation technology.

  9. Hydrologic impact of urbanization with extensive stormwater infiltration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a novel modeling analysis of a 40-year-long dataset to examine the impact of urbanization, with widespread stormwater infiltration, on groundwater levels and the water balance of a watershed. A dataset on the hydrologic impact of urbanization with extensive stormwater...

  10. Assessing hydrological impacts of tree-based bioenergy feedstock

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Gush, Mark B

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This chapter provides a methodology for assessing the hydrological impacts of tree-based bioenergy feedstock. Based on experience gained in South Africa, it discusses the tasks required to reach an understanding of the likely water resource impacts...

  11. Large scale biomimetic membrane arrays

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jesper Søndergaard; Perry, Mark; Vogel, Jörg

    2009-01-01

    To establish planar biomimetic membranes across large scale partition aperture arrays, we created a disposable single-use horizontal chamber design that supports combined optical-electrical measurements. Functional lipid bilayers could easily and efficiently be established across CO2 laser micro......-structured 8 x 8 aperture partition arrays with average aperture diameters of 301 +/- 5 mu m. We addressed the electro-physical properties of the lipid bilayers established across the micro-structured scaffold arrays by controllable reconstitution of biotechnological and physiological relevant membrane...... peptides and proteins. Next, we tested the scalability of the biomimetic membrane design by establishing lipid bilayers in rectangular 24 x 24 and hexagonal 24 x 27 aperture arrays, respectively. The results presented show that the design is suitable for further developments of sensitive biosensor assays...

  12. Conference on Large Scale Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Hearn, D; Pardalos, P

    1994-01-01

    On February 15-17, 1993, a conference on Large Scale Optimization, hosted by the Center for Applied Optimization, was held at the University of Florida. The con­ ference was supported by the National Science Foundation, the U. S. Army Research Office, and the University of Florida, with endorsements from SIAM, MPS, ORSA and IMACS. Forty one invited speakers presented papers on mathematical program­ ming and optimal control topics with an emphasis on algorithm development, real world applications and numerical results. Participants from Canada, Japan, Sweden, The Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Greece, and Denmark gave the meeting an important international component. At­ tendees also included representatives from IBM, American Airlines, US Air, United Parcel Serice, AT & T Bell Labs, Thinking Machines, Army High Performance Com­ puting Research Center, and Argonne National Laboratory. In addition, the NSF sponsored attendance of thirteen graduate students from universities in the United States and abro...

  13. Large scale nuclear structure studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faessler, A.

    1985-01-01

    Results of large scale nuclear structure studies are reported. The starting point is the Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov solution with angular momentum and proton and neutron number projection after variation. This model for number and spin projected two-quasiparticle excitations with realistic forces yields in sd-shell nuclei similar good results as the 'exact' shell-model calculations. Here the authors present results for a pf-shell nucleus 46 Ti and results for the A=130 mass region where they studied 58 different nuclei with the same single-particle energies and the same effective force derived from a meson exchange potential. They carried out a Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov variation after mean field projection in realistic model spaces. In this way, they determine for each yrast state the optimal mean Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov field. They apply this method to 130 Ce and 128 Ba using the same effective nucleon-nucleon interaction. (Auth.)

  14. Large-scale environmental degradation results in inequitable impacts to already impoverished communities: A case study from the floating villages of Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althor, Glenn; Mahood, Simon; Witt, Bradd; Colvin, Rebecca M; Watson, James E M

    2018-02-19

    Cambodian subsistence communities within the Tonle Sap Great Lake area rely on resource extraction from the lake to meet livelihood needs. These fishing communities-many of which consist of dwellings floating on the lake-face potentially profound livelihood challenges because of climate change and changing hydrology due to dam construction for hydroelectricity within the Mekong Basin. We conducted interviews across five village communities, with local subsistence fisher people in the Tonle Sap in 2015, and used thematic analysis methods to reveal a fishery system that is undergoing rapid ecological decline, with local fishing communities increasingly experiencing reductions in available fish stocks. As a result, over 100 000 people living in these communities are experiencing a direct loss of well-being and livelihood. We discuss these losses and consider their implications for the future viability of Cambodian floating village communities.

  15. The Big Drink Debate: perceptions of the impact of price on alcohol consumption from a large scale cross-sectional convenience survey in north west England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Penny A; Phillips-Howard, Penelope A; Morleo, Michela; Harkins, Corinne; Briant, Linford; Bellis, Mark A

    2011-08-23

    A large-scale survey was conducted in 2008 in north west England, a region with high levels of alcohol-related harm, during a regional 'Big Drink Debate' campaign. The aim of this paper is to explore perceptions of how alcohol consumption would change if alcohol prices were to increase or decrease. A convenience survey of residents (≥ 18 years) of north west England measured demographics, income, alcohol consumption in previous week, and opinions on drinking behaviour under two pricing conditions: low prices and discounts and increased alcohol prices (either 'decrease', 'no change' or 'increase'). Multinomial logistic regression used three outcomes: 'completely elastic' (consider that lower prices increase drinking and higher prices decrease drinking); 'lower price elastic' (lower prices increase drinking, higher prices have no effect); and 'price inelastic' (no change for either). Of 22,780 drinkers surveyed, 80.3% considered lower alcohol prices and discounts would increase alcohol consumption, while 22.1% thought raising prices would decrease consumption, making lower price elasticity only (i.e. lower prices increase drinking, higher prices have no effect) the most common outcome (62%). Compared to a high income/high drinking category, the lightest drinkers with a low income (adjusted odds ratio AOR = 1.78, 95% confidence intervals CI 1.38-2.30) or medium income (AOR = 1.88, CI 1.47-2.41) were most likely to be lower price elastic. Females were more likely than males to be lower price elastic (65% vs 57%) while the reverse was true for complete elasticity (20% vs 26%, P price of alcohol reduces consumption, and one in five of the surveyed population agreed; more work is required to increase this agreement to achieve public support for policy change. Such policy should also recognise that alcohol is an addictive drug, and the population may be prepared to pay more to drink the amount they now feel they need.

  16. Reviving large-scale projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desiront, A.

    2003-01-01

    For the past decade, most large-scale hydro development projects in northern Quebec have been put on hold due to land disputes with First Nations. Hydroelectric projects have recently been revived following an agreement signed with Aboriginal communities in the province who recognized the need to find new sources of revenue for future generations. Many Cree are working on the project to harness the waters of the Eastmain River located in the middle of their territory. The work involves building an 890 foot long dam, 30 dikes enclosing a 603 square-km reservoir, a spillway, and a power house with 3 generating units with a total capacity of 480 MW of power for start-up in 2007. The project will require the use of 2,400 workers in total. The Cree Construction and Development Company is working on relations between Quebec's 14,000 Crees and the James Bay Energy Corporation, the subsidiary of Hydro-Quebec which is developing the project. Approximately 10 per cent of the $735-million project has been designated for the environmental component. Inspectors ensure that the project complies fully with environmental protection guidelines. Total development costs for Eastmain-1 are in the order of $2 billion of which $735 million will cover work on site and the remainder will cover generating units, transportation and financial charges. Under the treaty known as the Peace of the Braves, signed in February 2002, the Quebec government and Hydro-Quebec will pay the Cree $70 million annually for 50 years for the right to exploit hydro, mining and forest resources within their territory. The project comes at a time when electricity export volumes to the New England states are down due to growth in Quebec's domestic demand. Hydropower is a renewable and non-polluting source of energy that is one of the most acceptable forms of energy where the Kyoto Protocol is concerned. It was emphasized that large-scale hydro-electric projects are needed to provide sufficient energy to meet both

  17. The Big Drink Debate: perceptions of the impact of price on alcohol consumption from a large scale cross-sectional convenience survey in north west England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Briant Linford

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A large-scale survey was conducted in 2008 in north west England, a region with high levels of alcohol-related harm, during a regional 'Big Drink Debate' campaign. The aim of this paper is to explore perceptions of how alcohol consumption would change if alcohol prices were to increase or decrease. Methods A convenience survey of residents (≥ 18 years of north west England measured demographics, income, alcohol consumption in previous week, and opinions on drinking behaviour under two pricing conditions: low prices and discounts and increased alcohol prices (either 'decrease', 'no change' or 'increase'. Multinomial logistic regression used three outcomes: 'completely elastic' (consider that lower prices increase drinking and higher prices decrease drinking; 'lower price elastic' (lower prices increase drinking, higher prices have no effect; and 'price inelastic' (no change for either. Results Of 22,780 drinkers surveyed, 80.3% considered lower alcohol prices and discounts would increase alcohol consumption, while 22.1% thought raising prices would decrease consumption, making lower price elasticity only (i.e. lower prices increase drinking, higher prices have no effect the most common outcome (62%. Compared to a high income/high drinking category, the lightest drinkers with a low income (adjusted odds ratio AOR = 1.78, 95% confidence intervals CI 1.38-2.30 or medium income (AOR = 1.88, CI 1.47-2.41 were most likely to be lower price elastic. Females were more likely than males to be lower price elastic (65% vs 57% while the reverse was true for complete elasticity (20% vs 26%, P Conclusions Lower pricing increases alcohol consumption, and the alcohol industry's continued focus on discounting sales encourages higher drinking levels. International evidence suggests increasing the price of alcohol reduces consumption, and one in five of the surveyed population agreed; more work is required to increase this agreement to achieve

  18. Large Scale Glazed Concrete Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bache, Anja Margrethe

    2010-01-01

    Today, there is a lot of focus on concrete surface’s aesthitic potential, both globally and locally. World famous architects such as Herzog De Meuron, Zaha Hadid, Richard Meyer and David Chippenfield challenge the exposure of concrete in their architecture. At home, this trend can be seen...... in the crinkly façade of DR-Byen (the domicile of the Danish Broadcasting Company) by architect Jean Nouvel and Zaha Hadid’s Ordrupgård’s black curved smooth concrete surfaces. Furthermore, one can point to initiatives such as “Synlig beton” (visible concrete) that can be seen on the website www.......synligbeton.dk and spæncom’s aesthetic relief effects by the designer Line Kramhøft (www.spaencom.com). It is my hope that the research-development project “Lasting large scale glazed concrete formwork,” I am working on at DTU, department of Architectural Engineering will be able to complement these. It is a project where I...

  19. Large scale cluster computing workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dane Skow; Alan Silverman

    2002-01-01

    Recent revolutions in computer hardware and software technologies have paved the way for the large-scale deployment of clusters of commodity computers to address problems heretofore the domain of tightly coupled SMP processors. Near term projects within High Energy Physics and other computing communities will deploy clusters of scale 1000s of processors and be used by 100s to 1000s of independent users. This will expand the reach in both dimensions by an order of magnitude from the current successful production facilities. The goals of this workshop were: (1) to determine what tools exist which can scale up to the cluster sizes foreseen for the next generation of HENP experiments (several thousand nodes) and by implication to identify areas where some investment of money or effort is likely to be needed. (2) To compare and record experimences gained with such tools. (3) To produce a practical guide to all stages of planning, installing, building and operating a large computing cluster in HENP. (4) To identify and connect groups with similar interest within HENP and the larger clustering community

  20. Large scale cross hole testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.K.; Black, J.H.; Doe, T.

    1991-05-01

    As part of the Site Characterisation and Validation programme the results of the large scale cross hole testing have been used to document hydraulic connections across the SCV block, to test conceptual models of fracture zones and obtain hydrogeological properties of the major hydrogeological features. The SCV block is highly heterogeneous. This heterogeneity is not smoothed out even over scales of hundreds of meters. Results of the interpretation validate the hypothesis of the major fracture zones, A, B and H; not much evidence of minor fracture zones is found. The uncertainty in the flow path, through the fractured rock, causes sever problems in interpretation. Derived values of hydraulic conductivity were found to be in a narrow range of two to three orders of magnitude. Test design did not allow fracture zones to be tested individually. This could be improved by testing the high hydraulic conductivity regions specifically. The Piezomac and single hole equipment worked well. Few, if any, of the tests ran long enough to approach equilibrium. Many observation boreholes showed no response. This could either be because there is no hydraulic connection, or there is a connection but a response is not seen within the time scale of the pumping test. The fractional dimension analysis yielded credible results, and the sinusoidal testing procedure provided an effective means of identifying the dominant hydraulic connections. (10 refs.) (au)

  1. Large-scale pool fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steinhaus Thomas

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A review of research into the burning behavior of large pool fires and fuel spill fires is presented. The features which distinguish such fires from smaller pool fires are mainly associated with the fire dynamics at low source Froude numbers and the radiative interaction with the fire source. In hydrocarbon fires, higher soot levels at increased diameters result in radiation blockage effects around the perimeter of large fire plumes; this yields lower emissive powers and a drastic reduction in the radiative loss fraction; whilst there are simplifying factors with these phenomena, arising from the fact that soot yield can saturate, there are other complications deriving from the intermittency of the behavior, with luminous regions of efficient combustion appearing randomly in the outer surface of the fire according the turbulent fluctuations in the fire plume. Knowledge of the fluid flow instabilities, which lead to the formation of large eddies, is also key to understanding the behavior of large-scale fires. Here modeling tools can be effectively exploited in order to investigate the fluid flow phenomena, including RANS- and LES-based computational fluid dynamics codes. The latter are well-suited to representation of the turbulent motions, but a number of challenges remain with their practical application. Massively-parallel computational resources are likely to be necessary in order to be able to adequately address the complex coupled phenomena to the level of detail that is necessary.

  2. Synthesis of Hydrologic and Hydraulic Impacts : Technical Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    A substantial portion of the cost of highway projects (approximately 40%, according to one in-house TxDOT : estimate) is for drainage infrastructure, which is intended to minimize any adverse hydrologic and hydraulic : (H&H) impacts of the project. Y...

  3. Large-scale land transformations in Indonesia: The role of ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... enable timely responses to the impacts of large-scale land transformations in Central Kalimantan ... In partnership with UNESCO's Organization for Women in Science for the ... New funding opportunity for gender equality and climate change.

  4. Bottom-Up Accountability Initiatives and Large-Scale Land ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Corey Piccioni

    fuel/energy, climate, and finance has occurred and one of the most ... this wave of large-scale land acquisitions. In fact, esti- ... Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth,. Nigeria ... map the differentiated impacts (gender, ethnicity,.

  5. Large-scale galaxy bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desjacques, Vincent; Jeong, Donghui; Schmidt, Fabian

    2018-02-01

    This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy statistics. We then review the excursion-set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

  6. Large-scale galaxy bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Donghui; Desjacques, Vincent; Schmidt, Fabian

    2018-01-01

    Here, we briefly introduce the key results of the recent review (arXiv:1611.09787), whose abstract is as following. This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy (or halo) statistics. We then review the excursion set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

  7. Algorithm 896: LSA: Algorithms for Large-Scale Optimization

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lukšan, Ladislav; Matonoha, Ctirad; Vlček, Jan

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 3 (2009), 16-1-16-29 ISSN 0098-3500 R&D Pro jects: GA AV ČR IAA1030405; GA ČR GP201/06/P397 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : algorithms * design * large-scale optimization * large-scale nonsmooth optimization * large-scale nonlinear least squares * large-scale nonlinear minimax * large-scale systems of nonlinear equations * sparse pro blems * partially separable pro blems * limited-memory methods * discrete Newton methods * quasi-Newton methods * primal interior-point methods Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.904, year: 2009

  8. The Impact of Teacher Study Groups in Vocabulary on Teaching Practice, Teacher Knowledge, and Student Vocabulary Knowledge: A Large-Scale Replication Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayanthi, Madhavi; Dimino, Joseph; Gersten, Russell; Taylor, Mary Jo; Haymond, Kelly; Smolkowski, Keith; Newman-Gonchar, Rebecca

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this replication study was to examine the impact of the Teacher Study Group (TSG) professional development in vocabulary on first-grade teachers' knowledge of vocabulary instruction and observed teaching practice, and on students' vocabulary knowledge. Sixty-two schools from 16 districts in four states were randomly assigned to…

  9. Development of tsunami fragility evaluation methods by large scale experiments. Part 2. Validation of the applicability of evaluation methods of impact force due to tsunami floating debris

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takabatake, Daisuke; Kihara, Naoto; Kaida, Hideki; Miyagawa, Yoshinori; Ikeno, Masaaki; Shibayama, Atsushi

    2015-01-01

    In order to examine the applicability of the existing estimation equations of the impact force due to tsunami floating debris, the collision tests are carried out. In the experiments, logs and full-scale light car are used. In this report, two types of existing equations, one is based on the Young's module of the debris (Eq.A) and the other one is based on the stiffness of the debris (Eq.B), are focused on. The estimated impact forces using Eq.A with log's Young module obtained by the material test agree with measured forces obtained by the collision test. But Eq.A does not applicate to a car because it is not easy to determine the Young's module of a car. On the other hand, the estimated impact forces using Eq.B with car's stiffness obtained by the static loading test agree with measured forces obtained by the collision test. This indicates that Eq.B unable us to estimate impact force of the floating debris such as car if the stiffness of the debris is determined. (author)

  10. The impact of a large-scale quality improvement programme on work engagement: Preliminary results from a national cross-sectional-survey of the 'Productive Ward'

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    White, Mark

    2014-05-14

    Quality improvement (QI) Programmes, like the Productive Ward: Releasing-time-to-care initiative, aim to \\'engage\\' and \\'empower\\' ward teams to actively participate, innovate and lead quality improvement at the front line. However, little is known about the relationship and impact that QI work has on the \\'engagement\\' of the clinical teams who participate and vice-versa.

  11. A large-scale R-matrix calculation for electron-impact excitation of the Ne2 +, O-like ion

    OpenAIRE

    McLaughlin , B M; Lee , Teck-Ghee; Ludlow , J A; Landi , E; Loch , S D; Pindzola , M S; Ballance , C P

    2011-01-01

    Abstract The five J? levels within a np2 or np4 ground state complex provide an excellent testing ground for the comparison of theoretical line ratios with astrophysically observed values, in addition to providing valuable electron temperature and density diagnostics. The low temperature nature of the line ratios ensure that the theoretically derived values are sensitive to the underlying atomic structure and electron-impact excitation rates. Previous R- matrix calculations for the O-like ...

  12. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

  13. Minimizing Harmonic Distortion Impact at Distribution System with Considering Large-Scale EV Load Behaviour Using Modified Lightning Search Algorithm and Pareto-Fuzzy Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Syed Nasir

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This research is focusing on optimal placement and sizing of multiple variable passive filter (VPF to mitigate harmonic distortion due to charging station (CS at 449 bus distribution network. There are 132 units of CS which are scheduled based on user behaviour within 24 hours, with the interval of 15 minutes. By considering the varying of CS patterns and harmonic impact, Modified Lightning Search Algorithm (MLSA is used to find 22 units of VPF coordination, so that less harmonics will be injected from 415 V bus to the medium voltage network and power loss is also reduced. Power system harmonic flow, VPF, CS, battery, and the analysis will be modelled in MATLAB/m-file platform. High Performance Computing (HPC is used to make simulation faster. Pareto-Fuzzy technique is used to obtain sizing of VPF from all nondominated solutions. From the result, the optimal placements and sizes of VPF are able to reduce the maximum THD for voltage and current and also the total apparent losses up to 39.14%, 52.5%, and 2.96%, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that the MLSA is suitable method to mitigate harmonic and it is beneficial in minimizing the impact of aggressive CS installation at distribution network.

  14. Analysis of the impact of large scale seismic retrofitting strategies through the application of a vulnerability-based approach on traditional masonry buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Tiago Miguel; Maio, Rui; Vicente, Romeu

    2017-04-01

    The buildings' capacity to maintain minimum structural safety levels during natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is recognisably one of the aspects that most influence urban resilience. Moreover, the public investment in risk mitigation strategies is fundamental, not only to promote social and urban and resilience, but also to limit consequent material, human and environmental losses. Despite the growing awareness of this issue, there is still a vast number of traditional masonry buildings spread throughout many European old city centres that lacks of adequate seismic resistance, requiring therefore urgent retrofitting interventions in order to both reduce their seismic vulnerability and to cope with the increased seismic requirements of recent code standards. Thus, this paper aims at contributing to mitigate the social and economic impacts of earthquake damage scenarios through the development of vulnerability-based comparative analysis of some of the most popular retrofitting techniques applied after the 1998 Azores earthquake. The influence of each technique individually and globally studied resorting to a seismic vulnerability index methodology integrated into a GIS tool and damage and loss scenarios are constructed and critically discussed. Finally, the economic balance resulting from the implementation of that techniques are also examined.

  15. Future energy loads for a large-scale adoption of electric vehicles in the city of Los Angeles: Impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jae D.; Rahimi, Mansour

    2014-01-01

    Using plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has become an important component of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategy in the transportation sector. Assessing the net effect of PEVs on GHG emissions, however, is dependent on factors such as type and scale of electricity generation sources, adoption rate, and charging behavior. This study creates a comprehensive model that estimates the energy load and GHG emissions impacts for the years 2020 and 2030 for the city of Los Angeles. For 2020, model simulations show that the PEV charging loads will be modest with negligible effects on the overall system load profile. Contrary to previous study results, the average marginal carbon intensity is higher if PEV charging occurs during off-peak hours. These results suggest that current economic incentives to encourage off-peak charging result in greater GHG emissions. Model simulations for 2030 show that PEV charging loads increase significantly resulting in potential generation shortages. There are also significant grid operation challenges as the region's energy grid is required to ramp up and down rapidly to meet PEV loads. For 2030, the average marginal carbon intensity for off-peak charging becomes lower than peak charging mainly due to the removal of coal from the power generation portfolio. - Highlights: • Future energy load from PEV charging in the city of Los Angeles is modeled. • Changes in the marginal carbon intensity of the region's electric grid are modeled. • In the short run, offpeak charging results in higher marginal carbon intensity. • There is a mismatch between emissions and economic incentives for charging

  16. A large scale field experiment in the Amazon basin (LAMBADA/BATERISTA)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolman, A.J.; Kabat, P.; Gash, J.H.C.; Noilhan, J.; Jochum, A.M.; Nobre, C.

    1995-01-01

    A description is given of a large-scale field experiment planned in the Amazon basin, aimed at assessing the large-scale balances of energy, water and carbon dioxide. The embedding of this experiment in global change programmes is described, viz. the Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle

  17. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  18. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, John M.

    1977-01-01

    Lists many recent research projects in hydrology, including flow in fractured media, improvements in remote-sensing techniques, effects of urbanization on water resources, and developments in drainage basins. (MLH)

  19. Hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obando G, E.

    1989-01-01

    Isotopical techniques are used in hydrology area for exploration, evaluation and exploration of water investigation. These techniques have been used successfully and are often the best or only means for providing certain hydrogeological parameters

  20. Ethics of large-scale change

    OpenAIRE

    Arler, Finn

    2006-01-01

      The subject of this paper is long-term large-scale changes in human society. Some very significant examples of large-scale change are presented: human population growth, human appropriation of land and primary production, the human use of fossil fuels, and climate change. The question is posed, which kind of attitude is appropriate when dealing with large-scale changes like these from an ethical point of view. Three kinds of approaches are discussed: Aldo Leopold's mountain thinking, th...

  1. Large-scale sequential quadratic programming algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eldersveld, S.K.

    1992-09-01

    The problem addressed is the general nonlinear programming problem: finding a local minimizer for a nonlinear function subject to a mixture of nonlinear equality and inequality constraints. The methods studied are in the class of sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithms, which have previously proved successful for problems of moderate size. Our goal is to devise an SQP algorithm that is applicable to large-scale optimization problems, using sparse data structures and storing less curvature information but maintaining the property of superlinear convergence. The main features are: 1. The use of a quasi-Newton approximation to the reduced Hessian of the Lagrangian function. Only an estimate of the reduced Hessian matrix is required by our algorithm. The impact of not having available the full Hessian approximation is studied and alternative estimates are constructed. 2. The use of a transformation matrix Q. This allows the QP gradient to be computed easily when only the reduced Hessian approximation is maintained. 3. The use of a reduced-gradient form of the basis for the null space of the working set. This choice of basis is more practical than an orthogonal null-space basis for large-scale problems. The continuity condition for this choice is proven. 4. The use of incomplete solutions of quadratic programming subproblems. Certain iterates generated by an active-set method for the QP subproblem are used in place of the QP minimizer to define the search direction for the nonlinear problem. An implementation of the new algorithm has been obtained by modifying the code MINOS. Results and comparisons with MINOS and NPSOL are given for the new algorithm on a set of 92 test problems.

  2. The German and European laws and regulations providing for participation of the public in vertically staged procedures for the licensing of large-scale projects with an impact on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellmann, U.

    1992-01-01

    Participation of the public in licensing procedures for large-scale projects has been an item of discussion since the sixties in the legal sciences and on the political level. The introduction of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) as a legal requirement in EC law and its implementation in practice was the occasion to once again investigate the principle of participation of the public in the current legal framework. The study in hand reviews the legal provisions found in administrative law, constitutional law and European Community law governing the right of participation of the public and also takes a look at the situation in practice. The results show both the legal status and conditions of enforcement as prevailing after the coming into force in 1989 of the Act on Performance of an EIA, as well as inadequacies and deficits in the current legal framework. (orig.) [de

  3. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brutsaert, Wilfried

    2005-08-01

    Water in its different forms has always been a source of wonder, curiosity and practical concern for humans everywhere. Hydrology - An Introduction presents a coherent introduction to the fundamental principles of hydrology, based on the course that Wilfried Brutsaert has taught at Cornell University for the last thirty years. Hydrologic phenomena are dealt with at spatial and temporal scales at which they occur in nature. The physics and mathematics necessary to describe these phenomena are introduced and developed, and readers will require a working knowledge of calculus and basic fluid mechanics. The book will be invaluable as a textbook for entry-level courses in hydrology directed at advanced seniors and graduate students in physical science and engineering. In addition, the book will be more broadly of interest to professional scientists and engineers in hydrology, environmental science, meteorology, agronomy, geology, climatology, oceanology, glaciology and other earth sciences. Emphasis on fundamentals Clarification of the underlying physical processes Applications of fluid mechanics in the natural environment

  4. Hydrological impacts of urbanization at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oudin, Ludovic; Salavati, Bahar; Furusho-Percot, Carina; Ribstein, Pierre; Saadi, Mohamed

    2018-04-01

    The impacts of urbanization on floods, droughts and the overall river regime have been largely investigated in the past few decades, but the quantification and the prediction of such impacts still remain a challenge in hydrology. We gathered a sample of 142 catchments that have a documented increase in urban areas over the hydrometeorological record period in the United States. The changes in river flow regimes due to urban spread were differentiated from climate variability using the GR4J conceptual hydrological model. High, low and mean flows were impacted at a threshold of a 10% total impervious area. Moreover, the historical evolution of urban landscape spatial patterns was used to further detail the urbanization process in terms of extent and fragmentation of urban areas throughout the catchment and to help interpret the divergent impacts observed in streamflow behaviors. Regression analysis pointed out the importance of major wastewater treatment facilities that might overpass the effects of imperviousness, and therefore further research should either take them explicitly into account or select a wastewater facility-free catchment sample to clearly evaluate the impacts of urban landscape on low flows.

  5. Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zlatev, Z.; Brandt, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

    Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998......Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998...

  6. Automating large-scale reactor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisner, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper conveys a philosophy for developing automated large-scale control systems that behave in an integrated, intelligent, flexible manner. Methods for operating large-scale systems under varying degrees of equipment degradation are discussed, and a design approach that separates the effort into phases is suggested. 5 refs., 1 fig

  7. Decentralized Large-Scale Power Balancing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    problem is formulated as a centralized large-scale optimization problem but is then decomposed into smaller subproblems that are solved locally by each unit connected to an aggregator. For large-scale systems the method is faster than solving the full problem and can be distributed to include an arbitrary...

  8. Hydrologi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.

    Hydro1ogi er den videnskab, der omhand1er jordens vand, dets forekomst, cirku1ation og forde1ing, dets kemiske og fysiske egenskaber samt indvirkning på omgivelserne, herunder dets relation ti1 alt liv på jorden. Således lyder en b1andt mange definitioner på begrebet hydrologi, og som man kan se...

  9. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  10. Trends in large-scale testing of reactor structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blejwas, T.E.

    2003-01-01

    Large-scale tests of reactor structures have been conducted at Sandia National Laboratories since the late 1970s. This paper describes a number of different large-scale impact tests, pressurization tests of models of containment structures, and thermal-pressure tests of models of reactor pressure vessels. The advantages of large-scale testing are evident, but cost, in particular limits its use. As computer models have grown in size, such as number of degrees of freedom, the advent of computer graphics has made possible very realistic representation of results - results that may not accurately represent reality. A necessary condition to avoiding this pitfall is the validation of the analytical methods and underlying physical representations. Ironically, the immensely larger computer models sometimes increase the need for large-scale testing, because the modeling is applied to increasing more complex structural systems and/or more complex physical phenomena. Unfortunately, the cost of large-scale tests is a disadvantage that will likely severely limit similar testing in the future. International collaborations may provide the best mechanism for funding future programs with large-scale tests. (author)

  11. Breaking wave impact on offshore tripod structures. Comparison of large scale experiments, CFD simulations, and DIN recommended practice; Wellenbrechen an Offshore Tripod-Gruendungen. Versuche und Simulationen im Vergleich zu Richtlinien

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hildebrandt, Arndt; Schlurmann, Torsten [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Franzius-Institut fuer Wasserbau und Kuesteningenieurwesen

    2012-05-15

    Coastal and near shore areas offer a large potential for offshore wind energy production due to strong and steady wind conditions. Thousands of offshore wind energy converters are projected for mass production within the next years. Detailed understanding of the extreme, dynamic wave loads on offshore structures is essential for an efficient design. The impact on structures is a complex process and further studies are required for more detailed load assessments, which is why breaking wave loads were investigated by the research project ''GIGAWIND alpha ventus - Subproject 1'' within the network ''Research at Alpha VEntus'' (RAVE). Large scale laboratory tests (1:12) with breaking waves have been carried out at the Large Wave Flume of the ''Forschungszentrum Kueste'' (FZK, Hanover) to reveal more detailed insights on the impact area, duration and development of the wave induced momentum, and intensity of pressures. In addition, local pressures calculated by a three-dimensional numerical impact simulation are compared to the Large Wave Flume experiments. Slamming coefficients have been derived from the physical model tests and CFD simulations for the comparison to load calculations based on guidelines. (orig.)

  12. Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Fokko Hattermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

  13. Large scale network-centric distributed systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sarbazi-Azad, Hamid

    2014-01-01

    A highly accessible reference offering a broad range of topics and insights on large scale network-centric distributed systems Evolving from the fields of high-performance computing and networking, large scale network-centric distributed systems continues to grow as one of the most important topics in computing and communication and many interdisciplinary areas. Dealing with both wired and wireless networks, this book focuses on the design and performance issues of such systems. Large Scale Network-Centric Distributed Systems provides in-depth coverage ranging from ground-level hardware issu

  14. Seismic safety in conducting large-scale blasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mashukov, I. V.; Chaplygin, V. V.; Domanov, V. P.; Semin, A. A.; Klimkin, M. A.

    2017-09-01

    In mining enterprises to prepare hard rocks for excavation a drilling and blasting method is used. With the approach of mining operations to settlements the negative effect of large-scale blasts increases. To assess the level of seismic impact of large-scale blasts the scientific staff of Siberian State Industrial University carried out expertise for coal mines and iron ore enterprises. Determination of the magnitude of surface seismic vibrations caused by mass explosions was performed using seismic receivers, an analog-digital converter with recording on a laptop. The registration results of surface seismic vibrations during production of more than 280 large-scale blasts at 17 mining enterprises in 22 settlements are presented. The maximum velocity values of the Earth’s surface vibrations are determined. The safety evaluation of seismic effect was carried out according to the permissible value of vibration velocity. For cases with exceedance of permissible values recommendations were developed to reduce the level of seismic impact.

  15. Large-scale numerical simulations of plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamaguchi, Satoshi

    2004-01-01

    The recent trend of large scales simulations of fusion plasma and processing plasmas is briefly summarized. Many advanced simulation techniques have been developed for fusion plasmas and some of these techniques are now applied to analyses of processing plasmas. (author)

  16. Superconducting materials for large scale applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dew-Hughes, D.

    1975-01-01

    Applications of superconductors capable of carrying large current densities in large-scale electrical devices are examined. Discussions are included on critical current density, superconducting materials available, and future prospects for improved superconducting materials. (JRD)

  17. Large-scale computing with Quantum Espresso

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannozzi, P.; Cavazzoni, C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper gives a short introduction to Quantum Espresso: a distribution of software for atomistic simulations in condensed-matter physics, chemical physics, materials science, and to its usage in large-scale parallel computing.

  18. Large-scale regions of antimatter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grobov, A. V.; Rubin, S. G.

    2015-01-01

    Amodified mechanism of the formation of large-scale antimatter regions is proposed. Antimatter appears owing to fluctuations of a complex scalar field that carries a baryon charge in the inflation era

  19. Large-scale regions of antimatter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grobov, A. V., E-mail: alexey.grobov@gmail.com; Rubin, S. G., E-mail: sgrubin@mephi.ru [National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Russian Federation)

    2015-07-15

    Amodified mechanism of the formation of large-scale antimatter regions is proposed. Antimatter appears owing to fluctuations of a complex scalar field that carries a baryon charge in the inflation era.

  20. Large-scale grid management; Storskala Nettforvaltning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langdal, Bjoern Inge; Eggen, Arnt Ove

    2003-07-01

    The network companies in the Norwegian electricity industry now have to establish a large-scale network management, a concept essentially characterized by (1) broader focus (Broad Band, Multi Utility,...) and (2) bigger units with large networks and more customers. Research done by SINTEF Energy Research shows so far that the approaches within large-scale network management may be structured according to three main challenges: centralization, decentralization and out sourcing. The article is part of a planned series.

  1. Political consultation and large-scale research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bechmann, G.; Folkers, H.

    1977-01-01

    Large-scale research and policy consulting have an intermediary position between sociological sub-systems. While large-scale research coordinates science, policy, and production, policy consulting coordinates science, policy and political spheres. In this very position, large-scale research and policy consulting lack of institutional guarantees and rational back-ground guarantee which are characteristic for their sociological environment. This large-scale research can neither deal with the production of innovative goods under consideration of rentability, nor can it hope for full recognition by the basis-oriented scientific community. Policy consulting knows neither the competence assignment of the political system to make decisions nor can it judge succesfully by the critical standards of the established social science, at least as far as the present situation is concerned. This intermediary position of large-scale research and policy consulting has, in three points, a consequence supporting the thesis which states that this is a new form of institutionalization of science: These are: 1) external control, 2) the organization form, 3) the theoretical conception of large-scale research and policy consulting. (orig.) [de

  2. Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

  3. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  4. Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

  5. Large-Scale Systems Control Design via LMI Optimization

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rehák, Branislav

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 3 (2015), s. 247-253 ISSN 1392-124X Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Combinatorial linear matrix inequalities * large-scale system * decentralized control Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 0.633, year: 2015

  6. LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL INVESTMENTS IN LAND: SEEKING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    extent of large-scale investment in land or to assess its impact on the people in recipient countries. .... favorable lease terms, apparently based on a belief that this is necessary to .... Harm to the rights of local occupiers of land can result from a dearth. 24. ..... applies to a self-identified group based on the group's traditions.

  7. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  8. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  9. Large-Scale Agriculture and Outgrower Schemes in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wendimu, Mengistu Assefa

    , the impact of large-scale agriculture and outgrower schemes on productivity, household welfare and wages in developing countries is highly contentious. Chapter 1 of this thesis provides an introduction to the study, while also reviewing the key debate in the contemporary land ‘grabbing’ and historical large...... sugarcane outgrower scheme on household income and asset stocks. Chapter 5 examines the wages and working conditions in ‘formal’ large-scale and ‘informal’ small-scale irrigated agriculture. The results in Chapter 2 show that moisture stress, the use of untested planting materials, and conflict over land...... commands a higher wage than ‘formal’ large-scale agriculture, while rather different wage determination mechanisms exist in the two sectors. Human capital characteristics (education and experience) partly explain the differences in wages within the formal sector, but play no significant role...

  10. Balancing modern Power System with large scale of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basit, Abdul; Altin, Müfit; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2014-01-01

    Power system operators must ensure robust, secure and reliable power system operation even with a large scale integration of wind power. Electricity generated from the intermittent wind in large propor-tion may impact on the control of power system balance and thus deviations in the power system...... frequency in small or islanded power systems or tie line power flows in interconnected power systems. Therefore, the large scale integration of wind power into the power system strongly concerns the secure and stable grid operation. To ensure the stable power system operation, the evolving power system has...... to be analysed with improved analytical tools and techniques. This paper proposes techniques for the active power balance control in future power systems with the large scale wind power integration, where power balancing model provides the hour-ahead dispatch plan with reduced planning horizon and the real time...

  11. Dissecting the large-scale galactic conformity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Seongu

    2018-01-01

    Galactic conformity is an observed phenomenon that galaxies located in the same region have similar properties such as star formation rate, color, gas fraction, and so on. The conformity was first observed among galaxies within in the same halos (“one-halo conformity”). The one-halo conformity can be readily explained by mutual interactions among galaxies within a halo. Recent observations however further witnessed a puzzling connection among galaxies with no direct interaction. In particular, galaxies located within a sphere of ~5 Mpc radius tend to show similarities, even though the galaxies do not share common halos with each other ("two-halo conformity" or “large-scale conformity”). Using a cosmological hydrodynamic simulation, Illustris, we investigate the physical origin of the two-halo conformity and put forward two scenarios. First, back-splash galaxies are likely responsible for the large-scale conformity. They have evolved into red galaxies due to ram-pressure stripping in a given galaxy cluster and happen to reside now within a ~5 Mpc sphere. Second, galaxies in strong tidal field induced by large-scale structure also seem to give rise to the large-scale conformity. The strong tides suppress star formation in the galaxies. We discuss the importance of the large-scale conformity in the context of galaxy evolution.

  12. Impact of dam-induced hydrological changes on riparian vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tealdi, Stefano; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2010-05-01

    Hydrological disturbances are a key factor for the riparian vegetation, which is a highly dynamic ecosystem prone to external forcing. Random fluctuations of water stages drive in fact the alternation of periods of floods and exposure of the vegetated plots. During flooding, the plots are submerged and vegetation is damaged by burial, uprooting and anoxia, while during exposure periods vegetation grows according to the soil moisture content and the phreatic water table depth. The distribution of vegetation along the riparian transect is then directly connected to the stochasticity of river discharges. River damming can have remarkable impacts on the hydrology of a river and, consequently, on the riparian vegetation. Several field studies show how the river regulation induced by artificial reservoirs can greatly modify the statistical moments and the autocorrelation of the discharge time series. The vegetation responds to these changes reducing its overall heterogeneity, declining - substituted by exotic species - and shifting its starting position nearer or far away from the channel center. These latter processes are known as narrowing and widening, respectively. In our work we explore the effects of dam-induced hydrological changes on the narrowing/widening process and on the total biomass along the transect. To this aim we use an eco-hydrological stochastic model developed by Camporeale and Ridolfi [2006], which is able to give a realistic distribution of the biomass along the transect as a function of a few hydrologic, hydraulic and vegetation parameters. We apply the model to an exemplifying case, by investigating the vegetation response to a set of changes in mean discharge and coefficient of variation. The range of these changes is deduced from the analysis of field data in pre- and post-dam conditions. Firstly, we analyze the narrowing/widening process. In particular, we analyze two percentage differences of the starting transversal position with respect to

  13. Growth Limits in Large Scale Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip

    limitations. The rising complexity of network management with the convergence of communications platforms is shown as problematic for both automatic management feasibility and for manpower resource management. In the fourth step the scope is extended to include the present society with the DDN project as its......The Subject of large scale networks is approached from the perspective of the network planner. An analysis of the long term planning problems is presented with the main focus on the changing requirements for large scale networks and the potential problems in meeting these requirements. The problems...... the fundamental technological resources in network technologies are analysed for scalability. Here several technological limits to continued growth are presented. The third step involves a survey of major problems in managing large scale networks given the growth of user requirements and the technological...

  14. Managing large-scale models: DBS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-05-01

    A set of fundamental management tools for developing and operating a large scale model and data base system is presented. Based on experience in operating and developing a large scale computerized system, the only reasonable way to gain strong management control of such a system is to implement appropriate controls and procedures. Chapter I discusses the purpose of the book. Chapter II classifies a broad range of generic management problems into three groups: documentation, operations, and maintenance. First, system problems are identified then solutions for gaining management control are disucssed. Chapters III, IV, and V present practical methods for dealing with these problems. These methods were developed for managing SEAS but have general application for large scale models and data bases

  15. Accelerating sustainability in large-scale facilities

    CERN Multimedia

    Marina Giampietro

    2011-01-01

    Scientific research centres and large-scale facilities are intrinsically energy intensive, but how can big science improve its energy management and eventually contribute to the environmental cause with new cleantech? CERN’s commitment to providing tangible answers to these questions was sealed in the first workshop on energy management for large scale scientific infrastructures held in Lund, Sweden, on the 13-14 October.   Participants at the energy management for large scale scientific infrastructures workshop. The workshop, co-organised with the European Spallation Source (ESS) and  the European Association of National Research Facilities (ERF), tackled a recognised need for addressing energy issues in relation with science and technology policies. It brought together more than 150 representatives of Research Infrastrutures (RIs) and energy experts from Europe and North America. “Without compromising our scientific projects, we can ...

  16. Large-Scale Analysis of Art Proportions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karl Kristoffer

    2014-01-01

    While literature often tries to impute mathematical constants into art, this large-scale study (11 databases of paintings and photos, around 200.000 items) shows a different truth. The analysis, consisting of the width/height proportions, shows a value of rarely if ever one (square) and with majo......While literature often tries to impute mathematical constants into art, this large-scale study (11 databases of paintings and photos, around 200.000 items) shows a different truth. The analysis, consisting of the width/height proportions, shows a value of rarely if ever one (square...

  17. The Expanded Large Scale Gap Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-03-01

    NSWC TR 86-32 DTIC THE EXPANDED LARGE SCALE GAP TEST BY T. P. LIDDIARD D. PRICE RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT ’ ~MARCH 1987 Ap~proved for public...arises, to reduce the spread in the LSGT 50% gap value.) The worst charges, such as those with the highest or lowest densities, the largest re-pressed...Arlington, VA 22217 PE 62314N INS3A 1 RJ14E31 7R4TBK 11 TITLE (Include Security CIlmsilficatiorn The Expanded Large Scale Gap Test . 12. PEIRSONAL AUTHOR() T

  18. Impact of physical permafrost processes on hydrological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemann, Stefan; Blome, Tanja; Beer, Christian; Ekici, Altug

    2015-04-01

    Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. Within the European Union FP7 project PAGE21, the land surface scheme JSBACH of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ESM (MPI-ESM) has been equipped with the representation of relevant physical processes for permafrost studies. These processes include the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In the present study, it will be analysed how these permafrost relevant processes impact projected hydrological changes over northern hemisphere high latitude land areas. For this analysis, the atmosphere-land part of MPI-ESM, ECHAM6-JSBACH, is driven by prescribed SST and sea ice in an AMIP2-type setup with and without the newly implemented permafrost processes. Observed SST and sea ice for 1979-1999 are used to consider induced changes in the simulated hydrological cycle. In addition, simulated SST and sea ice are taken from a MPI-ESM simulation conducted for CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The

  19. Impacts of Extreme Flooding on Hydrologic Connectivity and Water Quality in the Atlantic Coastal Plain and Implications for Vulnerable Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riveros-Iregui, D. A.; Moser, H. A.; Christenson, E. C.; Gray, J.; Hedgespeth, M. L.; Jass, T. L.; Lowry, D. S.; Martin, K.; Nichols, E. G.; Stewart, J. R.; Emanuel, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought extreme flooding to eastern North Carolina, including record regional flooding along the Lumber River and its tributaries in the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Situated in a region dominated by large-scale crop-cultivation and containing some of the highest densities of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) and animal processing operations in the U.S., the Lumber River watershed is also home to the Lumbee Tribe of American Indians. Most of the tribe's 60,000+ members live within or immediately adjacent to the 3,000 km2 watershed where they maintain deep cultural and historical connections. The region, however, also suffers from high rates of poverty and large disparities in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, conditions exacerbated by Hurricane Matthew. We summarize ongoing efforts to characterize the short- and long-term impacts of extreme flooding on water quality in (1) low gradient streams and riverine wetlands of the watershed; (2) surficial aquifers, which provide water resources for the local communities, and (3) public drinking water supplies, which derive from deeper, confined aquifers but whose infrastructure suffered widespread damage following Hurricane Matthew. Our results provide mechanistic understanding of flood-related connectivity across multiple hydrologic compartments, and provide important implications for how hydrological natural hazards combine with land use to drive water quality impacts and affect vulnerable populations.

  20. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire's impacts on southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems, hydrology, and fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter F. Ffolliott; Cody L. Stropki; Hui Chen; Daniel G. Neary

    2011-01-01

    The Rodeo-Chediski Wildfire burned nearly 462,600 acres in north-central Arizona in the summer of 2002. The wildfire damaged or destroyed ecosystem resources and disrupted the hydrologic functioning within the impacted ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a largely mosaic pattern. Impacts of the wildfire on ecosystem resources, factors important to hydrologic...

  1. Configuration management in large scale infrastructure development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijn, T.P.J. van; Belt, H. van de; Los, R.H.

    2000-01-01

    Large Scale Infrastructure (LSI) development projects such as the construction of roads, rail-ways and other civil engineering (water)works is tendered differently today than a decade ago. Traditional workflow requested quotes from construction companies for construction works where the works to be

  2. Large-scale Motion of Solar Filaments

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tribpo

    Large-scale Motion of Solar Filaments. Pavel Ambrož, Astronomical Institute of the Acad. Sci. of the Czech Republic, CZ-25165. Ondrejov, The Czech Republic. e-mail: pambroz@asu.cas.cz. Alfred Schroll, Kanzelhöehe Solar Observatory of the University of Graz, A-9521 Treffen,. Austria. e-mail: schroll@solobskh.ac.at.

  3. Sensitivity analysis for large-scale problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Ahmed K.; Whitworth, Sandra L.

    1987-01-01

    The development of efficient techniques for calculating sensitivity derivatives is studied. The objective is to present a computational procedure for calculating sensitivity derivatives as part of performing structural reanalysis for large-scale problems. The scope is limited to framed type structures. Both linear static analysis and free-vibration eigenvalue problems are considered.

  4. Ethics of large-scale change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arler, Finn

    2006-01-01

    , which kind of attitude is appropriate when dealing with large-scale changes like these from an ethical point of view. Three kinds of approaches are discussed: Aldo Leopold's mountain thinking, the neoclassical economists' approach, and finally the so-called Concentric Circle Theories approach...

  5. The origin of large scale cosmic structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.J.T.; Palmer, P.L.

    1985-01-01

    The paper concerns the origin of large scale cosmic structure. The evolution of density perturbations, the nonlinear regime (Zel'dovich's solution and others), the Gott and Rees clustering hierarchy, the spectrum of condensations, and biassed galaxy formation, are all discussed. (UK)

  6. Large-scale perspective as a challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plomp, M.G.A.

    2012-01-01

    1. Scale forms a challenge for chain researchers: when exactly is something ‘large-scale’? What are the underlying factors (e.g. number of parties, data, objects in the chain, complexity) that determine this? It appears to be a continuum between small- and large-scale, where positioning on that

  7. Computing in Large-Scale Dynamic Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruteanu, A.S.

    2013-01-01

    Software applications developed for large-scale systems have always been difficult to de- velop due to problems caused by the large number of computing devices involved. Above a certain network size (roughly one hundred), necessary services such as code updating, topol- ogy discovery and data

  8. Learning from large scale neural simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Serban, Maria

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale neural simulations have the marks of a distinct methodology which can be fruitfully deployed to advance scientific understanding of the human brain. Computer simulation studies can be used to produce surrogate observational data for better conceptual models and new how...

  9. Large-Scale Outflows in Seyfert Galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbert, E. J. M.; Baum, S. A.

    1995-12-01

    \\catcode`\\@=11 \\ialign{m @th#1hfil ##hfil \\crcr#2\\crcr\\sim\\crcr}}} \\catcode`\\@=12 Highly collimated outflows extend out to Mpc scales in many radio-loud active galaxies. In Seyfert galaxies, which are radio-quiet, the outflows extend out to kpc scales and do not appear to be as highly collimated. In order to study the nature of large-scale (>~1 kpc) outflows in Seyferts, we have conducted optical, radio and X-ray surveys of a distance-limited sample of 22 edge-on Seyfert galaxies. Results of the optical emission-line imaging and spectroscopic survey imply that large-scale outflows are present in >~{{1} /{4}} of all Seyferts. The radio (VLA) and X-ray (ROSAT) surveys show that large-scale radio and X-ray emission is present at about the same frequency. Kinetic luminosities of the outflows in Seyferts are comparable to those in starburst-driven superwinds. Large-scale radio sources in Seyferts appear diffuse, but do not resemble radio halos found in some edge-on starburst galaxies (e.g. M82). We discuss the feasibility of the outflows being powered by the active nucleus (e.g. a jet) or a circumnuclear starburst.

  10. Stability of large scale interconnected dynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akpan, E.P.

    1993-07-01

    Large scale systems modelled by a system of ordinary differential equations are considered and necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained for the uniform asymptotic connective stability of the systems using the method of cone-valued Lyapunov functions. It is shown that this model significantly improves the existing models. (author). 9 refs

  11. Evaluating the impact of hydrological uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Bellin, Alberto; Majone, Bruno; Bovolo, C. Isabella; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.

    2010-05-01

    Quantification of the impacts of climate change on water resources depends on the emission scenario, climate model, downscaling technique and impact model used to drive the impact study. Uncertainties in projections of climate models and those involved in the quantification of its hydrological response limit the understanding of future impacts and complicate the assessment of mitigation policies. This work analyses the effects of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (NE Spain), considering the combined effect of uncertainty characterizing both the driving Regional Climate Model (RCM) and hydrological parameterization. In addition, we considered the relative importance of these two contributions. Hydrological simulations in a few test catchments within the basin were performed by using the SWAT model, a widely used hydrological model often applied to large-scale watersheds. After a preliminary sensitivity analysis with Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT), the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology was used for selecting hydrological parameter sets that best reproduced the observed streamflow during the control period from 1961 to 1991, in terms of percentage of measured data bracketed by the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), and the ratio between the average thickness of the 95PPU band and the standard deviation of the measured data. Following validation, the same parameter sets were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflows. A simple bias-correction methodology was used for downscaling daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 RCM time-slice experiments. These were obtained from the PRUDENCE project for a control period (1961-1990) and for a future time period (2071-2100) using the medium-high SRES A2 emissions scenario. The bias-corrected future RCM scenarios were then used to drive the hydrological simulations during the future period

  12. Evaluation of real-time data obtained from gravimetric preparation of antineoplastic agents shows medication errors with possible critical therapeutic impact: Results of a large-scale, multicentre, multinational, retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terkola, R; Czejka, M; Bérubé, J

    2017-08-01

    Medication errors are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality especially with antineoplastic drugs, owing to their narrow therapeutic index. Gravimetric workflow software systems have the potential to reduce volumetric errors during intravenous antineoplastic drug preparation which may occur when verification is reliant on visual inspection. Our aim was to detect medication errors with possible critical therapeutic impact as determined by the rate of prevented medication errors in chemotherapy compounding after implementation of gravimetric measurement. A large-scale, retrospective analysis of data was carried out, related to medication errors identified during preparation of antineoplastic drugs in 10 pharmacy services ("centres") in five European countries following the introduction of an intravenous workflow software gravimetric system. Errors were defined as errors in dose volumes outside tolerance levels, identified during weighing stages of preparation of chemotherapy solutions which would not otherwise have been detected by conventional visual inspection. The gravimetric system detected that 7.89% of the 759 060 doses of antineoplastic drugs prepared at participating centres between July 2011 and October 2015 had error levels outside the accepted tolerance range set by individual centres, and prevented these doses from reaching patients. The proportion of antineoplastic preparations with deviations >10% ranged from 0.49% to 5.04% across sites, with a mean of 2.25%. The proportion of preparations with deviations >20% ranged from 0.21% to 1.27% across sites, with a mean of 0.71%. There was considerable variation in error levels for different antineoplastic agents. Introduction of a gravimetric preparation system for antineoplastic agents detected and prevented dosing errors which would not have been recognized with traditional methods and could have resulted in toxicity or suboptimal therapeutic outcomes for patients undergoing anticancer treatment.

  13. Predicting invasive species impacts on hydrological processes: the consequences of plant physiology for landscape processes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Le Maitre, David C

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The adverse impacts of invading alien organisms are widely recognized as one of the major threats to biodiversity and are receiving growing recognition as a major socioeconomic threat. The hydrological impacts of alien plants have received less...

  14. Large scale dynamics of protoplanetary discs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béthune, William

    2017-08-01

    Planets form in the gaseous and dusty disks orbiting young stars. These protoplanetary disks are dispersed in a few million years, being accreted onto the central star or evaporated into the interstellar medium. To explain the observed accretion rates, it is commonly assumed that matter is transported through the disk by turbulence, although the mechanism sustaining turbulence is uncertain. On the other side, irradiation by the central star could heat up the disk surface and trigger a photoevaporative wind, but thermal effects cannot account for the observed acceleration and collimation of the wind into a narrow jet perpendicular to the disk plane. Both issues can be solved if the disk is sensitive to magnetic fields. Weak fields lead to the magnetorotational instability, whose outcome is a state of sustained turbulence. Strong fields can slow down the disk, causing it to accrete while launching a collimated wind. However, the coupling between the disk and the neutral gas is done via electric charges, each of which is outnumbered by several billion neutral molecules. The imperfect coupling between the magnetic field and the neutral gas is described in terms of "non-ideal" effects, introducing new dynamical behaviors. This thesis is devoted to the transport processes happening inside weakly ionized and weakly magnetized accretion disks; the role of microphysical effects on the large-scale dynamics of the disk is of primary importance. As a first step, I exclude the wind and examine the impact of non-ideal effects on the turbulent properties near the disk midplane. I show that the flow can spontaneously organize itself if the ionization fraction is low enough; in this case, accretion is halted and the disk exhibits axisymmetric structures, with possible consequences on planetary formation. As a second step, I study the launching of disk winds via a global model of stratified disk embedded in a warm atmosphere. This model is the first to compute non-ideal effects from

  15. Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: a test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Jong, S.M. de; Geer, F.C. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    The current generation of large-scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component. Large-scale groundwater models, involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries, are still rare mainly due to a lack of hydro-geological data which are usually only available in

  16. Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: A test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Jong, S.M. de; Geer, F.C. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    The current generation of large-scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component. Large-scale groundwater models, involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries, are still rare mainly due to a lack of hydro-geological data which are usually only available in developed

  17. Large-scale structure of the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doroshkevich, A.G.

    1978-01-01

    The problems, discussed at the ''Large-scale Structure of the Universe'' symposium are considered on a popular level. Described are the cell structure of galaxy distribution in the Universe, principles of mathematical galaxy distribution modelling. The images of cell structures, obtained after reprocessing with the computer are given. Discussed are three hypothesis - vortical, entropic, adiabatic, suggesting various processes of galaxy and galaxy clusters origin. A considerable advantage of the adiabatic hypothesis is recognized. The relict radiation, as a method of direct studying the processes taking place in the Universe is considered. The large-scale peculiarities and small-scale fluctuations of the relict radiation temperature enable one to estimate the turbance properties at the pre-galaxy stage. The discussion of problems, pertaining to studying the hot gas, contained in galaxy clusters, the interactions within galaxy clusters and with the inter-galaxy medium, is recognized to be a notable contribution into the development of theoretical and observational cosmology

  18. Emerging large-scale solar heating applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, W.P.; McClung, J.L.

    2009-01-01

    Currently the market for solar heating applications in Canada is dominated by outdoor swimming pool heating, make-up air pre-heating and domestic water heating in homes, commercial and institutional buildings. All of these involve relatively small systems, except for a few air pre-heating systems on very large buildings. Together these applications make up well over 90% of the solar thermal collectors installed in Canada during 2007. These three applications, along with the recent re-emergence of large-scale concentrated solar thermal for generating electricity, also dominate the world markets. This paper examines some emerging markets for large scale solar heating applications, with a focus on the Canadian climate and market. (author)

  19. Emerging large-scale solar heating applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, W.P.; McClung, J.L. [Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC Canada), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    Currently the market for solar heating applications in Canada is dominated by outdoor swimming pool heating, make-up air pre-heating and domestic water heating in homes, commercial and institutional buildings. All of these involve relatively small systems, except for a few air pre-heating systems on very large buildings. Together these applications make up well over 90% of the solar thermal collectors installed in Canada during 2007. These three applications, along with the recent re-emergence of large-scale concentrated solar thermal for generating electricity, also dominate the world markets. This paper examines some emerging markets for large scale solar heating applications, with a focus on the Canadian climate and market. (author)

  20. Challenges for Large Scale Structure Theory

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    I will describe some of the outstanding questions in Cosmology where answers could be provided by observations of the Large Scale Structure of the Universe at late times.I will discuss some of the theoretical challenges which will have to be overcome to extract this information from the observations. I will describe some of the theoretical tools that might be useful to achieve this goal. 

  1. Methods for Large-Scale Nonlinear Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-05-01

    STANFORD, CALIFORNIA 94305 METHODS FOR LARGE-SCALE NONLINEAR OPTIMIZATION by Philip E. Gill, Waiter Murray, I Michael A. Saunden, and Masgaret H. Wright...typical iteration can be partitioned so that where B is an m X m basise matrix. This partition effectively divides the vari- ables into three classes... attention is given to the standard of the coding or the documentation. A much better way of obtaining mathematical software is from a software library

  2. Large scale inhomogeneities and the cosmological principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukacs, B.; Meszaros, A.

    1984-12-01

    The compatibility of cosmologic principles and possible large scale inhomogeneities of the Universe is discussed. It seems that the strongest symmetry principle which is still compatible with reasonable inhomogeneities, is a full conformal symmetry in the 3-space defined by the cosmological velocity field, but even in such a case, the standard model is isolated from the inhomogeneous ones when the whole evolution is considered. (author)

  3. Fires in large scale ventilation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, W.S.; Martin, R.A.; White, B.W.; Nichols, B.D.; Smith, P.R.; Leslie, I.H.; Fenton, D.L.; Gunaji, M.V.; Blythe, J.P.

    1991-01-01

    This paper summarizes the experience gained simulating fires in large scale ventilation systems patterned after ventilation systems found in nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The series of experiments discussed included: (1) combustion aerosol loading of 0.61x0.61 m HEPA filters with the combustion products of two organic fuels, polystyrene and polymethylemethacrylate; (2) gas dynamic and heat transport through a large scale ventilation system consisting of a 0.61x0.61 m duct 90 m in length, with dampers, HEPA filters, blowers, etc.; (3) gas dynamic and simultaneous transport of heat and solid particulate (consisting of glass beads with a mean aerodynamic diameter of 10μ) through the large scale ventilation system; and (4) the transport of heat and soot, generated by kerosene pool fires, through the large scale ventilation system. The FIRAC computer code, designed to predict fire-induced transients in nuclear fuel cycle facility ventilation systems, was used to predict the results of experiments (2) through (4). In general, the results of the predictions were satisfactory. The code predictions for the gas dynamics, heat transport, and particulate transport and deposition were within 10% of the experimentally measured values. However, the code was less successful in predicting the amount of soot generation from kerosene pool fires, probably due to the fire module of the code being a one-dimensional zone model. The experiments revealed a complicated three-dimensional combustion pattern within the fire room of the ventilation system. Further refinement of the fire module within FIRAC is needed. (orig.)

  4. Large-scale Complex IT Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Sommerville, Ian; Cliff, Dave; Calinescu, Radu; Keen, Justin; Kelly, Tim; Kwiatkowska, Marta; McDermid, John; Paige, Richard

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the issues around the construction of large-scale complex systems which are built as 'systems of systems' and suggests that there are fundamental reasons, derived from the inherent complexity in these systems, why our current software engineering methods and techniques cannot be scaled up to cope with the engineering challenges of constructing such systems. It then goes on to propose a research and education agenda for software engineering that identifies the major challen...

  5. Large-scale complex IT systems

    OpenAIRE

    Sommerville, Ian; Cliff, Dave; Calinescu, Radu; Keen, Justin; Kelly, Tim; Kwiatkowska, Marta; McDermid, John; Paige, Richard

    2012-01-01

    12 pages, 2 figures This paper explores the issues around the construction of large-scale complex systems which are built as 'systems of systems' and suggests that there are fundamental reasons, derived from the inherent complexity in these systems, why our current software engineering methods and techniques cannot be scaled up to cope with the engineering challenges of constructing such systems. It then goes on to propose a research and education agenda for software engineering that ident...

  6. LAVA: Large scale Automated Vulnerability Addition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-23

    LAVA: Large-scale Automated Vulnerability Addition Brendan Dolan -Gavitt∗, Patrick Hulin†, Tim Leek†, Fredrich Ulrich†, Ryan Whelan† (Authors listed...released, and thus rapidly become stale. We can expect tools to have been trained to detect bugs that have been released. Given the commercial price tag...low TCN) and dead (low liveness) program data is a powerful one for vulnera- bility injection. The DUAs it identifies are internal program quantities

  7. Large-Scale Transit Signal Priority Implementation

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Kevin S.; Lozner, Bailey

    2018-01-01

    In 2016, the District Department of Transportation (DDOT) deployed Transit Signal Priority (TSP) at 195 intersections in highly urbanized areas of Washington, DC. In collaboration with a broader regional implementation, and in partnership with the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA), DDOT set out to apply a systems engineering–driven process to identify, design, test, and accept a large-scale TSP system. This presentation will highlight project successes and lessons learned.

  8. Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

    1998-01-01

    The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

  9. Economically viable large-scale hydrogen liquefaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardella, U.; Decker, L.; Klein, H.

    2017-02-01

    The liquid hydrogen demand, particularly driven by clean energy applications, will rise in the near future. As industrial large scale liquefiers will play a major role within the hydrogen supply chain, production capacity will have to increase by a multiple of today’s typical sizes. The main goal is to reduce the total cost of ownership for these plants by increasing energy efficiency with innovative and simple process designs, optimized in capital expenditure. New concepts must ensure a manageable plant complexity and flexible operability. In the phase of process development and selection, a dimensioning of key equipment for large scale liquefiers, such as turbines and compressors as well as heat exchangers, must be performed iteratively to ensure technological feasibility and maturity. Further critical aspects related to hydrogen liquefaction, e.g. fluid properties, ortho-para hydrogen conversion, and coldbox configuration, must be analysed in detail. This paper provides an overview on the approach, challenges and preliminary results in the development of efficient as well as economically viable concepts for large-scale hydrogen liquefaction.

  10. Time series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of north-central Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawtree, D.; Nunes, J. P.; Keizer, J. J.; Jacinto, R.; Santos, J.; Rial-Rivas, M. E.; Boulet, A.-K.; Tavares-Wahren, F.; Feger, K.-H.

    2015-07-01

    The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant land cover change since the early 1900s, with large-scale replacement of natural vegetation types with plantation forests. This transition consisted of an initial conversion primarily to Pinus pinaster, followed by a secondary transition to Eucalyptus globulus. This land cover change is likely to have altered the hydrologic functioning of this region; however, these potential impacts are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 75 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936-2010. A number of hydrometeorological variables were analyzed using a combined Thiel-Sen/Mann-Kendall trend-testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there have been no significant reductions in streamflow over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which has occurred. This lack of change in streamflow is attributed to the specific characteristics of the watershed and land cover change. By contrast, a number of significant trends were found for baseflow index, with positive trends in the early data record (primarily during Pinus pinaster afforestation), followed by negative trends later in the data record (primarily during Eucalyptus globulus afforestation). These trends are attributed to land use and vegetation impacts on streamflow generating processes, both due to species differences and to alterations in soil properties (i.e., infiltration capacity, soil water repellency). These results highlight the importance of considering both vegetation types/dynamics and watershed characteristic when assessing hydrologic impacts, in particular with respect to soil properties.

  11. Impacts of changing hydrology on permanent gully growth: experimental results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Stephanie S.; Gran, Karen B.; Paola, Chris

    2018-06-01

    Permanent gullies grow through head cut propagation in response to overland flow coupled with incision and widening in the channel bottom leading to hillslope failures. Altered hydrology can impact the rate at which permanent gullies grow by changing head cut propagation, channel incision, and channel widening rates. Using a set of small physical experiments, we tested how changing overland flow rates and flow volumes alter the total volume of erosion and resulting gully morphology. Permanent gullies were modeled as both detachment-limited and transport-limited systems, using two different substrates with varying cohesion. In both cases, the erosion rate varied linearly with water discharge, such that the volume of sediment eroded was a function not of flow rate, but of total water volume. This implies that efforts to reduce peak flow rates alone without addressing flow volumes entering gully systems may not reduce erosion. The documented response in these experiments is not typical when compared to larger preexisting channels where higher flow rates result in greater erosion through nonlinear relationships between water discharge and sediment discharge. Permanent gullies do not respond like preexisting channels because channel slope remains a free parameter and can adjust relatively quickly in response to changing flows.

  12. Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, Andrei; Zhang, Xiaodong; Lim, Yeo Howe; Teng, William L.

    2011-01-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

  13. Physics-based simulations of the impacts forest management practices have on hydrologic response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adrianne Carr; Keith Loague

    2012-01-01

    The impacts of logging on near-surface hydrologic response at the catchment and watershed scales were examined quantitatively using numerical simulation. The simulations were conducted with the Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) for the North Fork of Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Fort Bragg, California. InHM is a comprehensive physics-based...

  14. SWAT-simulated hydrological impact of land-use change in the Zanjanrood basin, Northwest Iran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghaffari, G.; Ghodousi, J.; Ahmadi, H.; Keesstra, S.D.

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of land-use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land-use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and

  15. Hydrologic Futures: Using Scenario Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forecasted Land Use Change on Hydrologic Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land cover and land use changes can substantially alter hydrologic ecosystem services. Water availability and quality can change with modifications to the type or amount of surface vegetation, the permeability of soil and other surfaces, and the introduction of contaminants throu...

  16. An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

    2012-12-01

    Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of

  17. The Software Reliability of Large Scale Integration Circuit and Very Large Scale Integration Circuit

    OpenAIRE

    Artem Ganiyev; Jan Vitasek

    2010-01-01

    This article describes evaluation method of faultless function of large scale integration circuits (LSI) and very large scale integration circuits (VLSI). In the article there is a comparative analysis of factors which determine faultless of integrated circuits, analysis of already existing methods and model of faultless function evaluation of LSI and VLSI. The main part describes a proposed algorithm and program for analysis of fault rate in LSI and VLSI circuits.

  18. Impact of climate change on the hydrology of High Mountain Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, A.

    2016-01-01

    In Asia, water resources largely depend on water generated in the mountainous upstream parts of several large river basins and hundreds of millions of people depend on their waters downstream. The large-scale impacts of climate change for the water resources in High Mountain Asia are poorly

  19. The impact of large-scale energy storage requirements on the choice between electricity and hydrogen as the major energy carrier in a non-fossil renewables-only scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Converse, Alvin O.

    2006-01-01

    The need for large-scale storage, when the energy source is subject to periods of low-energy generation, as it would be in a direct solar or wind energy system, could be the factor which justifies the choice of hydrogen, rather than electricity, as the principal energy carrier. It could also be the 'Achilles heel' of a solar-based sustainable energy system, tipping the choice to a nuclear breeder system

  20. RESTRUCTURING OF THE LARGE-SCALE SPRINKLERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Kozaczyk

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the best ways for agriculture to become independent from shortages of precipitation is irrigation. In the seventies and eighties of the last century a number of large-scale sprinklers in Wielkopolska was built. At the end of 1970’s in the Poznan province 67 sprinklers with a total area of 6400 ha were installed. The average size of the sprinkler reached 95 ha. In 1989 there were 98 sprinklers, and the area which was armed with them was more than 10 130 ha. The study was conducted on 7 large sprinklers with the area ranging from 230 to 520 hectares in 1986÷1998. After the introduction of the market economy in the early 90’s and ownership changes in agriculture, large-scale sprinklers have gone under a significant or total devastation. Land on the State Farms of the State Agricultural Property Agency has leased or sold and the new owners used the existing sprinklers to a very small extent. This involved a change in crop structure, demand structure and an increase in operating costs. There has also been a threefold increase in electricity prices. Operation of large-scale irrigation encountered all kinds of barriers in practice and limitations of system solutions, supply difficulties, high levels of equipment failure which is not inclined to rational use of available sprinklers. An effect of a vision of the local area was to show the current status of the remaining irrigation infrastructure. The adopted scheme for the restructuring of Polish agriculture was not the best solution, causing massive destruction of assets previously invested in the sprinkler system.

  1. Analysis for preliminary evaluation of discrete fracture flow and large-scale permeability in sedimentary rocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanehiro, B.Y.; Lai, C.H.; Stow, S.H.

    1987-05-01

    Conceptual models for sedimentary rock settings that could be used in future evaluation and suitability studies are being examined through the DOE Repository Technology Program. One area of concern for the hydrologic aspects of these models is discrete fracture flow analysis as related to the estimation of the size of the representative elementary volume, evaluation of the appropriateness of continuum assumptions and estimation of the large-scale permeabilities of sedimentary rocks. A basis for preliminary analysis of flow in fracture systems of the types that might be expected to occur in low permeability sedimentary rocks is presented. The approach used involves numerical modeling of discrete fracture flow for the configuration of a large-scale hydrologic field test directed at estimation of the size of the representative elementary volume and large-scale permeability. Analysis of fracture data on the basis of this configuration is expected to provide a preliminary indication of the scale at which continuum assumptions can be made

  2. Optical interconnect for large-scale systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dress, William

    2013-02-01

    This paper presents a switchless, optical interconnect module that serves as a node in a network of identical distribution modules for large-scale systems. Thousands to millions of hosts or endpoints may be interconnected by a network of such modules, avoiding the need for multi-level switches. Several common network topologies are reviewed and their scaling properties assessed. The concept of message-flow routing is discussed in conjunction with the unique properties enabled by the optical distribution module where it is shown how top-down software control (global routing tables, spanning-tree algorithms) may be avoided.

  3. Adaptive visualization for large-scale graph

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Hiroko; Shinano, Yuji; Ohzahata, Satoshi

    2010-01-01

    We propose an adoptive visualization technique for representing a large-scale hierarchical dataset within limited display space. A hierarchical dataset has nodes and links showing the parent-child relationship between the nodes. These nodes and links are described using graphics primitives. When the number of these primitives is large, it is difficult to recognize the structure of the hierarchical data because many primitives are overlapped within a limited region. To overcome this difficulty, we propose an adaptive visualization technique for hierarchical datasets. The proposed technique selects an appropriate graph style according to the nodal density in each area. (author)

  4. Neutrinos and large-scale structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenstein, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    I review the use of cosmological large-scale structure to measure properties of neutrinos and other relic populations of light relativistic particles. With experiments to measure the anisotropies of the cosmic microwave anisotropies and the clustering of matter at low redshift, we now have securely measured a relativistic background with density appropriate to the cosmic neutrino background. Our limits on the mass of the neutrino continue to shrink. Experiments coming in the next decade will greatly improve the available precision on searches for the energy density of novel relativistic backgrounds and the mass of neutrinos

  5. Puzzles of large scale structure and gravitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidharth, B.G.

    2006-01-01

    We consider the puzzle of cosmic voids bounded by two-dimensional structures of galactic clusters as also a puzzle pointed out by Weinberg: How can the mass of a typical elementary particle depend on a cosmic parameter like the Hubble constant? An answer to the first puzzle is proposed in terms of 'Scaled' Quantum Mechanical like behaviour which appears at large scales. The second puzzle can be answered by showing that the gravitational mass of an elementary particle has a Machian character (see Ahmed N. Cantorian small worked, Mach's principle and the universal mass network. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2004;21(4))

  6. Neutrinos and large-scale structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisenstein, Daniel J. [Daniel J. Eisenstein, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., MS #20, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2015-07-15

    I review the use of cosmological large-scale structure to measure properties of neutrinos and other relic populations of light relativistic particles. With experiments to measure the anisotropies of the cosmic microwave anisotropies and the clustering of matter at low redshift, we now have securely measured a relativistic background with density appropriate to the cosmic neutrino background. Our limits on the mass of the neutrino continue to shrink. Experiments coming in the next decade will greatly improve the available precision on searches for the energy density of novel relativistic backgrounds and the mass of neutrinos.

  7. Concepts for Large Scale Hydrogen Production

    OpenAIRE

    Jakobsen, Daniel; Åtland, Vegar

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this thesis is to perform a techno-economic analysis of large-scale, carbon-lean hydrogen production in Norway, in order to evaluate various production methods and estimate a breakeven price level. Norway possesses vast energy resources and the export of oil and gas is vital to the country s economy. The results of this thesis indicate that hydrogen represents a viable, carbon-lean opportunity to utilize these resources, which can prove key in the future of Norwegian energy e...

  8. Stabilization Algorithms for Large-Scale Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Toke Koldborg

    2006-01-01

    The focus of the project is on stabilization of large-scale inverse problems where structured models and iterative algorithms are necessary for computing approximate solutions. For this purpose, we study various iterative Krylov methods and their abilities to produce regularized solutions. Some......-curve. This heuristic is implemented as a part of a larger algorithm which is developed in collaboration with G. Rodriguez and P. C. Hansen. Last, but not least, a large part of the project has, in different ways, revolved around the object-oriented Matlab toolbox MOORe Tools developed by PhD Michael Jacobsen. New...

  9. Large scale phononic metamaterials for seismic isolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aravantinos-Zafiris, N.; Sigalas, M. M.

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we numerically examine structures that could be characterized as large scale phononic metamaterials. These novel structures could have band gaps in the frequency spectrum of seismic waves when their dimensions are chosen appropriately, thus raising the belief that they could be serious candidates for seismic isolation structures. Different and easy to fabricate structures were examined made from construction materials such as concrete and steel. The well-known finite difference time domain method is used in our calculations in order to calculate the band structures of the proposed metamaterials

  10. Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

    2015-04-01

    In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach

  11. Dipolar modulation of Large-Scale Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Mijin

    For the last two decades, we have seen a drastic development of modern cosmology based on various observations such as the cosmic microwave background (CMB), type Ia supernovae, and baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO). These observational evidences have led us to a great deal of consensus on the cosmological model so-called LambdaCDM and tight constraints on cosmological parameters consisting the model. On the other hand, the advancement in cosmology relies on the cosmological principle: the universe is isotropic and homogeneous on large scales. Testing these fundamental assumptions is crucial and will soon become possible given the planned observations ahead. Dipolar modulation is the largest angular anisotropy of the sky, which is quantified by its direction and amplitude. We measured a huge dipolar modulation in CMB, which mainly originated from our solar system's motion relative to CMB rest frame. However, we have not yet acquired consistent measurements of dipolar modulations in large-scale structure (LSS), as they require large sky coverage and a number of well-identified objects. In this thesis, we explore measurement of dipolar modulation in number counts of LSS objects as a test of statistical isotropy. This thesis is based on two papers that were published in peer-reviewed journals. In Chapter 2 [Yoon et al., 2014], we measured a dipolar modulation in number counts of WISE matched with 2MASS sources. In Chapter 3 [Yoon & Huterer, 2015], we investigated requirements for detection of kinematic dipole in future surveys.

  12. Internationalization Measures in Large Scale Research Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soeding, Emanuel; Smith, Nancy

    2017-04-01

    Internationalization measures in Large Scale Research Projects Large scale research projects (LSRP) often serve as flagships used by universities or research institutions to demonstrate their performance and capability to stakeholders and other interested parties. As the global competition among universities for the recruitment of the brightest brains has increased, effective internationalization measures have become hot topics for universities and LSRP alike. Nevertheless, most projects and universities are challenged with little experience on how to conduct these measures and make internationalization an cost efficient and useful activity. Furthermore, those undertakings permanently have to be justified with the Project PIs as important, valuable tools to improve the capacity of the project and the research location. There are a variety of measures, suited to support universities in international recruitment. These include e.g. institutional partnerships, research marketing, a welcome culture, support for science mobility and an effective alumni strategy. These activities, although often conducted by different university entities, are interlocked and can be very powerful measures if interfaced in an effective way. On this poster we display a number of internationalization measures for various target groups, identify interfaces between project management, university administration, researchers and international partners to work together, exchange information and improve processes in order to be able to recruit, support and keep the brightest heads to your project.

  13. Large scale integration of photovoltaics in cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strzalka, Aneta; Alam, Nazmul; Duminil, Eric; Coors, Volker; Eicker, Ursula

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We implement the photovoltaics on a large scale. ► We use three-dimensional modelling for accurate photovoltaic simulations. ► We consider the shadowing effect in the photovoltaic simulation. ► We validate the simulated results using detailed hourly measured data. - Abstract: For a large scale implementation of photovoltaics (PV) in the urban environment, building integration is a major issue. This includes installations on roof or facade surfaces with orientations that are not ideal for maximum energy production. To evaluate the performance of PV systems in urban settings and compare it with the building user’s electricity consumption, three-dimensional geometry modelling was combined with photovoltaic system simulations. As an example, the modern residential district of Scharnhauser Park (SHP) near Stuttgart/Germany was used to calculate the potential of photovoltaic energy and to evaluate the local own consumption of the energy produced. For most buildings of the district only annual electrical consumption data was available and only selected buildings have electronic metering equipment. The available roof area for one of these multi-family case study buildings was used for a detailed hourly simulation of the PV power production, which was then compared to the hourly measured electricity consumption. The results were extrapolated to all buildings of the analyzed area by normalizing them to the annual consumption data. The PV systems can produce 35% of the quarter’s total electricity consumption and half of this generated electricity is directly used within the buildings.

  14. Status: Large-scale subatmospheric cryogenic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, T.

    1989-01-01

    In the late 1960's and early 1970's an interest in testing and operating RF cavities at 1.8K motivated the development and construction of four large (300 Watt) 1.8K refrigeration systems. in the past decade, development of successful superconducting RF cavities and interest in obtaining higher magnetic fields with the improved Niobium-Titanium superconductors has once again created interest in large-scale 1.8K refrigeration systems. The L'Air Liquide plant for Tore Supra is a recently commissioned 300 Watt 1.8K system which incorporates new technology, cold compressors, to obtain the low vapor pressure for low temperature cooling. CEBAF proposes to use cold compressors to obtain 5KW at 2.0K. Magnetic refrigerators of 10 Watt capacity or higher at 1.8K are now being developed. The state of the art of large-scale refrigeration in the range under 4K will be reviewed. 28 refs., 4 figs., 7 tabs

  15. Large-scale Intelligent Transporation Systems simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ewing, T.; Canfield, T.; Hannebutte, U.; Levine, D.; Tentner, A.

    1995-06-01

    A prototype computer system has been developed which defines a high-level architecture for a large-scale, comprehensive, scalable simulation of an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) capable of running on massively parallel computers and distributed (networked) computer systems. The prototype includes the modelling of instrumented ``smart`` vehicles with in-vehicle navigation units capable of optimal route planning and Traffic Management Centers (TMC). The TMC has probe vehicle tracking capabilities (display position and attributes of instrumented vehicles), and can provide 2-way interaction with traffic to provide advisories and link times. Both the in-vehicle navigation module and the TMC feature detailed graphical user interfaces to support human-factors studies. The prototype has been developed on a distributed system of networked UNIX computers but is designed to run on ANL`s IBM SP-X parallel computer system for large scale problems. A novel feature of our design is that vehicles will be represented by autonomus computer processes, each with a behavior model which performs independent route selection and reacts to external traffic events much like real vehicles. With this approach, one will be able to take advantage of emerging massively parallel processor (MPP) systems.

  16. Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

  17. Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost—A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walvoord, Michelle Ann; Kurylyk, Barret L.

    2016-01-01

    Where present, permafrost exerts a primary control on water fluxes, flowpaths, and distribution. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change are expected to modify the distribution of permafrost, leading to changing hydrologic conditions, including alterations in soil moisture, connectivity of inland waters, streamflow seasonality, and the partitioning of water stored above and below ground. The field of permafrost hydrology is undergoing rapid advancement with respect to multiscale observations, subsurface characterization, modeling, and integration with other disciplines. However, gaining predictive capability of the many interrelated consequences of climate change is a persistent challenge due to several factors. Observations of hydrologic change have been causally linked to permafrost thaw, but applications of process-based models needed to support and enhance the transferability of empirical linkages have often been restricted to generalized representations. Limitations stem from inadequate baseline permafrost and unfrozen hydrogeologic characterization, lack of historical data, and simplifications in structure and process representation needed to counter the high computational demands of cryohydrogeologic simulations. Further, due in part to the large degree of subsurface heterogeneity of permafrost landscapes and the nonuniformity in thaw patterns and rates, associations between various modes of permafrost thaw and hydrologic change are not readily scalable; even trajectories of change can differ. This review highlights promising advances in characterization and modeling of permafrost regions and presents ongoing research challenges toward projecting hydrologic and ecologic consequences of permafrost thaw at time and spatial scales that are useful to managers and researchers.

  18. Homogenization of Large-Scale Movement Models in Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garlick, M.J.; Powell, J.A.; Hooten, M.B.; McFarlane, L.R.

    2011-01-01

    A difficulty in using diffusion models to predict large scale animal population dispersal is that individuals move differently based on local information (as opposed to gradients) in differing habitat types. This can be accommodated by using ecological diffusion. However, real environments are often spatially complex, limiting application of a direct approach. Homogenization for partial differential equations has long been applied to Fickian diffusion (in which average individual movement is organized along gradients of habitat and population density). We derive a homogenization procedure for ecological diffusion and apply it to a simple model for chronic wasting disease in mule deer. Homogenization allows us to determine the impact of small scale (10-100 m) habitat variability on large scale (10-100 km) movement. The procedure generates asymptotic equations for solutions on the large scale with parameters defined by small-scale variation. The simplicity of this homogenization procedure is striking when compared to the multi-dimensional homogenization procedure for Fickian diffusion,and the method will be equally straightforward for more complex models. ?? 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  19. Radiations: large scale monitoring in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linton, M.; Khalatbari, A.

    2011-01-01

    As the consequences of radioactive leaks on their health are a matter of concern for Japanese people, a large scale epidemiological study has been launched by the Fukushima medical university. It concerns the two millions inhabitants of the Fukushima Prefecture. On the national level and with the support of public funds, medical care and follow-up, as well as systematic controls are foreseen, notably to check the thyroid of 360.000 young people less than 18 year old and of 20.000 pregnant women in the Fukushima Prefecture. Some measurements have already been performed on young children. Despite the sometimes rather low measures, and because they know that some parts of the area are at least as much contaminated as it was the case around Chernobyl, some people are reluctant to go back home

  20. Large-scale digitizer system, analog converters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Althaus, R.F.; Lee, K.L.; Kirsten, F.A.; Wagner, L.J.

    1976-10-01

    Analog to digital converter circuits that are based on the sharing of common resources, including those which are critical to the linearity and stability of the individual channels, are described. Simplicity of circuit composition is valued over other more costly approaches. These are intended to be applied in a large-scale processing and digitizing system for use with high-energy physics detectors such as drift-chambers or phototube-scintillator arrays. Signal distribution techniques are of paramount importance in maintaining adequate signal-to-noise ratio. Noise in both amplitude and time-jitter senses is held sufficiently low so that conversions with 10-bit charge resolution and 12-bit time resolution are achieved

  1. Engineering management of large scale systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Serita; Gill, Tepper L.; Paul, Arthur S.

    1989-01-01

    The organization of high technology and engineering problem solving, has given rise to an emerging concept. Reasoning principles for integrating traditional engineering problem solving with system theory, management sciences, behavioral decision theory, and planning and design approaches can be incorporated into a methodological approach to solving problems with a long range perspective. Long range planning has a great potential to improve productivity by using a systematic and organized approach. Thus, efficiency and cost effectiveness are the driving forces in promoting the organization of engineering problems. Aspects of systems engineering that provide an understanding of management of large scale systems are broadly covered here. Due to the focus and application of research, other significant factors (e.g., human behavior, decision making, etc.) are not emphasized but are considered.

  2. Grid sensitivity capability for large scale structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagendra, Gopal K.; Wallerstein, David V.

    1989-01-01

    The considerations and the resultant approach used to implement design sensitivity capability for grids into a large scale, general purpose finite element system (MSC/NASTRAN) are presented. The design variables are grid perturbations with a rather general linking capability. Moreover, shape and sizing variables may be linked together. The design is general enough to facilitate geometric modeling techniques for generating design variable linking schemes in an easy and straightforward manner. Test cases have been run and validated by comparison with the overall finite difference method. The linking of a design sensitivity capability for shape variables in MSC/NASTRAN with an optimizer would give designers a powerful, automated tool to carry out practical optimization design of real life, complicated structures.

  3. Large - scale Rectangular Ruler Automated Verification Device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hao; Chang, Luping; Xing, Minjian; Xie, Xie

    2018-03-01

    This paper introduces a large-scale rectangular ruler automated verification device, which consists of photoelectric autocollimator and self-designed mechanical drive car and data automatic acquisition system. The design of mechanical structure part of the device refer to optical axis design, drive part, fixture device and wheel design. The design of control system of the device refer to hardware design and software design, and the hardware mainly uses singlechip system, and the software design is the process of the photoelectric autocollimator and the automatic data acquisition process. This devices can automated achieve vertical measurement data. The reliability of the device is verified by experimental comparison. The conclusion meets the requirement of the right angle test procedure.

  4. Large Scale Landform Mapping Using Lidar DEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Türkay Gökgöz

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, LIDAR DEM data was used to obtain a primary landform map in accordance with a well-known methodology. This primary landform map was generalized using the Focal Statistics tool (Majority, considering the minimum area condition in cartographic generalization in order to obtain landform maps at 1:1000 and 1:5000 scales. Both the primary and the generalized landform maps were verified visually with hillshaded DEM and an orthophoto. As a result, these maps provide satisfactory visuals of the landforms. In order to show the effect of generalization, the area of each landform in both the primary and the generalized maps was computed. Consequently, landform maps at large scales could be obtained with the proposed methodology, including generalization using LIDAR DEM.

  5. Constructing sites on a large scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braae, Ellen Marie; Tietjen, Anne

    2011-01-01

    Since the 1990s, the regional scale has regained importance in urban and landscape design. In parallel, the focus in design tasks has shifted from master plans for urban extension to strategic urban transformation projects. A prominent example of a contemporary spatial development approach...... for setting the design brief in a large scale urban landscape in Norway, the Jaeren region around the city of Stavanger. In this paper, we first outline the methodological challenges and then present and discuss the proposed method based on our teaching experiences. On this basis, we discuss aspects...... is the IBA Emscher Park in the Ruhr area in Germany. Over a 10 years period (1988-1998), more than a 100 local transformation projects contributed to the transformation from an industrial to a post-industrial region. The current paradigm of planning by projects reinforces the role of the design disciplines...

  6. Large scale study of tooth enamel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodart, F.; Deconninck, G.; Martin, M.T.

    Human tooth enamel contains traces of foreign elements. The presence of these elements is related to the history and the environment of the human body and can be considered as the signature of perturbations which occur during the growth of a tooth. A map of the distribution of these traces on a large scale sample of the population will constitute a reference for further investigations of environmental effects. On hundred eighty samples of teeth were first analyzed using PIXE, backscattering and nuclear reaction techniques. The results were analyzed using statistical methods. Correlations between O, F, Na, P, Ca, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb and Sr were observed and cluster analysis was in progress. The techniques described in the present work have been developed in order to establish a method for the exploration of very large samples of the Belgian population. (author)

  7. Testing Einstein's Gravity on Large Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prescod-Weinstein, Chandra

    2011-01-01

    A little over a decade has passed since two teams studying high redshift Type Ia supernovae announced the discovery that the expansion of the universe was accelerating. After all this time, we?re still not sure how cosmic acceleration fits into the theory that tells us about the large-scale universe: General Relativity (GR). As part of our search for answers, we have been forced to question GR itself. But how will we test our ideas? We are fortunate enough to be entering the era of precision cosmology, where the standard model of gravity can be subjected to more rigorous testing. Various techniques will be employed over the next decade or two in the effort to better understand cosmic acceleration and the theory behind it. In this talk, I will describe cosmic acceleration, current proposals to explain it, and weak gravitational lensing, an observational effect that allows us to do the necessary precision cosmology.

  8. Large-Scale Astrophysical Visualization on Smartphones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becciani, U.; Massimino, P.; Costa, A.; Gheller, C.; Grillo, A.; Krokos, M.; Petta, C.

    2011-07-01

    Nowadays digital sky surveys and long-duration, high-resolution numerical simulations using high performance computing and grid systems produce multidimensional astrophysical datasets in the order of several Petabytes. Sharing visualizations of such datasets within communities and collaborating research groups is of paramount importance for disseminating results and advancing astrophysical research. Moreover educational and public outreach programs can benefit greatly from novel ways of presenting these datasets by promoting understanding of complex astrophysical processes, e.g., formation of stars and galaxies. We have previously developed VisIVO Server, a grid-enabled platform for high-performance large-scale astrophysical visualization. This article reviews the latest developments on VisIVO Web, a custom designed web portal wrapped around VisIVO Server, then introduces VisIVO Smartphone, a gateway connecting VisIVO Web and data repositories for mobile astrophysical visualization. We discuss current work and summarize future developments.

  9. Green roof impact on the hydrological cycle components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamera, Carlotta; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Becciu, Gianfranco; Rosso, Renzo

    2013-04-01

    In the last decades the importance of storm water management in urban areas has increased considerably, due to both urbanization extension and to a greater concern for environment pollution. Traditional storm water control practices, based on the "all to the sewer" attitude, rely on conveyance to route storm water runoff from urban impervious surfaces towards the nearby natural water bodies. In recent years, infiltration facilities are receiving an increasing attention, due to their particular efficiency in restoring a balance in hydrological cycle quite equal to quite pre-urbanization condition. In particular, such techniques are designed to capture, temporarily retain and infiltrate storm water, promote evapotranspiration and harvest water at the source, encouraging in general evaporation, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and the re-use of storm water. Green roofs are emerging as an increasingly popular Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) technique for urban storm water management. Indeed, they are able to operate hydrologic control over storm water runoff: they allow a significant reduction of peak flows and runoff volumes collected by drainage system, with a consequent reduction of flooding events and pollution masses discharges by CSO. Furthermore green roofs have a positive influence on the microclimate in urban areas by helping in lower urban air temperatures and mitigate the heat island effect. Last but not least, they have the advantage of improving the thermal insulation of buildings, with significant energy savings. A detailed analysis of the hydrological dynamics, connected both with the characteristics of the climatic context and with the green roof technical design, is essential in order to obtain a full characterization of the hydrologic behavior of a green roof system and its effects on the urban water cycle components. The purpose of this paper is to analysis the hydrological effects and urban benefits of the vegetation cover of a

  10. Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2016-12-01

    Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

  11. Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T I E; Zhao, F; Ward, P J; Moel, H de; Aerts, J C J H; Schmied, H Müller; Portmann, F T; Masaki, Y; Pokhrel, Y; Liu, X; Satoh, Yusuke; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, S N; Zaherpour, J; Wada, Yoshihide

    2018-01-01

    Human activity has a profound influence on river discharges, hydrological extremes and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the

  12. Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

    2017-12-01

    A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also

  13. Time-series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of North-Central Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawtree, D.; Nunes, J. P.; Keizer, J. J.; Jacinto, R.; Santos, J.; Rial-Rivas, M. E.; Boulet, A.-K.; Tavares-Wahren, F.; Feger, K.-H.

    2014-11-01

    The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus since the early 1900s; however, the long-term hydrologic impacts of this land cover change are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 7 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936 to 2010. Meteorological and hydrological records were analysed using a combined Thiel-Sen/Mann-Kendall trend testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there had been no significant reduction in streamflow yield over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which had taken place. This lack of change is attributed to both the characteristics of the watershed and the nature of the land cover change. By contrast, a number of significant trends were found for baseflow index, which showed positive trends in the early data record (primarily during Pinus pinaster afforestation), followed by a reversal to negative trends later in the data record (primarily during Eucalyptus globulus afforestation). These changes are attributed to vegetation impacts on streamflow generating processes, both due to the species differences and to alterations in soil properties (i.e. promoting water repellency of the topsoil). These results highlight the importance of considering both vegetation types/dynamics and watershed characteristic when assessing hydrologic impacts, in particular with respect to soil properties.

  14. Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments

  15. Regionalisation of Hydrological Indices to Assess Land-Use Change Impacts in the Tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, W.; Ochoa Tocachi, B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Andean ecosystems are major water sources for cities and communities located in the Tropical Andes; however, there is a considerable lack of knowledge about their hydrology. Two problems are especially important: (i) the lack of monitoring to assess the impacts of historical land-use and cover change and degradation (LUCCD) at catchment scale, and (ii) the high variability in climatic and hydrological conditions that complicate the evaluation of land management practices. This study analyses how a reliable LUCCD impacts assessment can be performed in an environment of high variability combined with data-scarcity and low-quality records. We use data from participatory hydrological monitoring activities in 20 catchments distributed along the tropical Andes. A set of 46 hydrological indices is calculated and regionalized by relating them to 42 physical catchment properties. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed to maximise available data while minimising redundancy in the sets of variables. Hydrological model parameters are constrained by estimated indices, and different behavioural predictions are assembled to provide a generalised response on which we assess LUCCD impacts. Results from this methodology show that the attributed effects of LUCCD in pair-wise catchment comparisons may be overstated or hidden by different sources of uncertainty, including measurement inaccuracies and model structural errors. We propose extrapolation and evaluation in ungauged catchments as a way to regionalize LUCCD predictions and to provide statistically significant conclusions in the Andean region. These estimations may deliver reliable knowledge to evaluate the hydrological impact of different watershed management practices.

  16. Large scale obscuration and related climate effects open literature bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, N.A.; Geitgey, J.; Behl, Y.K.; Zak, B.D.

    1994-05-01

    Large scale obscuration and related climate effects of nuclear detonations first became a matter of concern in connection with the so-called ''Nuclear Winter Controversy'' in the early 1980's. Since then, the world has changed. Nevertheless, concern remains about the atmospheric effects of nuclear detonations, but the source of concern has shifted. Now it focuses less on global, and more on regional effects and their resulting impacts on the performance of electro-optical and other defense-related systems. This bibliography reflects the modified interest

  17. Large scale obscuration and related climate effects open literature bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, N.A.; Geitgey, J.; Behl, Y.K.; Zak, B.D.

    1994-05-01

    Large scale obscuration and related climate effects of nuclear detonations first became a matter of concern in connection with the so-called ``Nuclear Winter Controversy`` in the early 1980`s. Since then, the world has changed. Nevertheless, concern remains about the atmospheric effects of nuclear detonations, but the source of concern has shifted. Now it focuses less on global, and more on regional effects and their resulting impacts on the performance of electro-optical and other defense-related systems. This bibliography reflects the modified interest.

  18. Status of large scale wind turbine technology development abroad?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ye LI; Lei DUAN

    2016-01-01

    To facilitate the large scale (multi-megawatt) wind turbine development in China, the foreign e?orts and achievements in the area are reviewed and summarized. Not only the popular horizontal axis wind turbines on-land but also the o?shore wind turbines, vertical axis wind turbines, airborne wind turbines, and shroud wind turbines are discussed. The purpose of this review is to provide a comprehensive comment and assessment about the basic work principle, economic aspects, and environmental impacts of turbines.

  19. Cosmological parameters from large scale structure - geometric versus shape information

    CERN Document Server

    Hamann, Jan; Lesgourgues, Julien; Rampf, Cornelius; Wong, Yvonne Y Y

    2010-01-01

    The matter power spectrum as derived from large scale structure (LSS) surveys contains two important and distinct pieces of information: an overall smooth shape and the imprint of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). We investigate the separate impact of these two types of information on cosmological parameter estimation, and show that for the simplest cosmological models, the broad-band shape information currently contained in the SDSS DR7 halo power spectrum (HPS) is by far superseded by geometric information derived from the baryonic features. An immediate corollary is that contrary to popular beliefs, the upper limit on the neutrino mass m_\

  20. Foundational perspectives on causality in large-scale brain networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannino, Michael; Bressler, Steven L.

    2015-12-01

    A profusion of recent work in cognitive neuroscience has been concerned with the endeavor to uncover causal influences in large-scale brain networks. However, despite the fact that many papers give a nod to the important theoretical challenges posed by the concept of causality, this explosion of research has generally not been accompanied by a rigorous conceptual analysis of the nature of causality in the brain. This review provides both a descriptive and prescriptive account of the nature of causality as found within and between large-scale brain networks. In short, it seeks to clarify the concept of causality in large-scale brain networks both philosophically and scientifically. This is accomplished by briefly reviewing the rich philosophical history of work on causality, especially focusing on contributions by David Hume, Immanuel Kant, Bertrand Russell, and Christopher Hitchcock. We go on to discuss the impact that various interpretations of modern physics have had on our understanding of causality. Throughout all this, a central focus is the distinction between theories of deterministic causality (DC), whereby causes uniquely determine their effects, and probabilistic causality (PC), whereby causes change the probability of occurrence of their effects. We argue that, given the topological complexity of its large-scale connectivity, the brain should be considered as a complex system and its causal influences treated as probabilistic in nature. We conclude that PC is well suited for explaining causality in the brain for three reasons: (1) brain causality is often mutual; (2) connectional convergence dictates that only rarely is the activity of one neuronal population uniquely determined by another one; and (3) the causal influences exerted between neuronal populations may not have observable effects. A number of different techniques are currently available to characterize causal influence in the brain. Typically, these techniques quantify the statistical

  1. Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T. J.; Perera, C.; Corrigan, C.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic models represent a significant tool for understanding, predicting, and responding to the impacts of water on society and society on water resources and, as such, are used extensively in water resources planning and management. Given this important role, the validity and fidelity of hydrologic models is imperative. While extensive focus has been paid to improving hydrologic models through better process representation, better parameter estimation, and better uncertainty quantification, significant challenges remain. In this study, we explore a number of competing model calibration scenarios for simple, coupled snowmelt-runoff models to better understand the sensitivity / variability of parameterizations and its impact on model performance, robustness, fidelity, and transferability. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of coupled snowmelt-runoff model parameterizations to alterations in calibration approach, underscores the concept of information content in hydrologic modeling, and provides insight into potential strategies for improving model robustness / fidelity.

  2. Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Carol R

    2011-06-01

    Urbanisation produces numerous changes in the natural environments it replaces. The impacts include habitat fragmentation and changes to both the quality and quantity of the stormwater runoff, and result in changes to hydrological systems. This review integrates research in relatively diverse areas to examine how the impacts of urban imperviousness on hydrological systems can be quantified and modelled. It examines the nature of reported impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems over four decades, including the effects of changes in imperviousness within catchments, and some inconsistencies in studies of the impacts of urbanisation. The distribution of imperviousness within urban areas is important in understanding the impacts of urbanisation and quantification requires detailed characterisation of urban areas. As a result most mapping of urban areas uses remote sensing techniques and this review examines a range of techniques using medium and high resolution imagery, including spectral unmixing. The third section examines the ways in which scientists and hydrological and environmental engineers model and quantify water flows in urban areas, the nature of hydrological models and methods for their calibration. The final section examines additional factors which influence the impact of impervious surfaces and some uncertainties that exist in current knowledge. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Large-scale stochasticity in Hamiltonian systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escande, D.F.

    1982-01-01

    Large scale stochasticity (L.S.S.) in Hamiltonian systems is defined on the paradigm Hamiltonian H(v,x,t) =v 2 /2-M cos x-P cos k(x-t) which describes the motion of one particle in two electrostatic waves. A renormalization transformation Tsub(r) is described which acts as a microscope that focusses on a given KAM (Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser) torus in phase space. Though approximate, Tsub(r) yields the threshold of L.S.S. in H with an error of 5-10%. The universal behaviour of KAM tori is predicted: for instance the scale invariance of KAM tori and the critical exponent of the Lyapunov exponent of Cantori. The Fourier expansion of KAM tori is computed and several conjectures by L. Kadanoff and S. Shenker are proved. Chirikov's standard mapping for stochastic layers is derived in a simpler way and the width of the layers is computed. A simpler renormalization scheme for these layers is defined. A Mathieu equation for describing the stability of a discrete family of cycles is derived. When combined with Tsub(r), it allows to prove the link between KAM tori and nearby cycles, conjectured by J. Greene and, in particular, to compute the mean residue of a torus. The fractal diagrams defined by G. Schmidt are computed. A sketch of a methodology for computing the L.S.S. threshold in any two-degree-of-freedom Hamiltonian system is given. (Auth.)

  4. Large scale molecular simulations of nanotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez-Cruz, Camilo A; Kang, Seung-gu; Zhou, Ruhong

    2014-01-01

    The widespread use of nanomaterials in biomedical applications has been accompanied by an increasing interest in understanding their interactions with tissues, cells, and biomolecules, and in particular, on how they might affect the integrity of cell membranes and proteins. In this mini-review, we present a summary of some of the recent studies on this important subject, especially from the point of view of large scale molecular simulations. The carbon-based nanomaterials and noble metal nanoparticles are the main focus, with additional discussions on quantum dots and other nanoparticles as well. The driving forces for adsorption of fullerenes, carbon nanotubes, and graphene nanosheets onto proteins or cell membranes are found to be mainly hydrophobic interactions and the so-called π-π stacking (between aromatic rings), while for the noble metal nanoparticles the long-range electrostatic interactions play a bigger role. More interestingly, there are also growing evidences showing that nanotoxicity can have implications in de novo design of nanomedicine. For example, the endohedral metallofullerenol Gd@C₈₂(OH)₂₂ is shown to inhibit tumor growth and metastasis by inhibiting enzyme MMP-9, and graphene is illustrated to disrupt bacteria cell membranes by insertion/cutting as well as destructive extraction of lipid molecules. These recent findings have provided a better understanding of nanotoxicity at the molecular level and also suggested therapeutic potential by using the cytotoxicity of nanoparticles against cancer or bacteria cells. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Large-scale tides in general relativity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ip, Hiu Yan; Schmidt, Fabian, E-mail: iphys@mpa-garching.mpg.de, E-mail: fabians@mpa-garching.mpg.de [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, 85741 Garching (Germany)

    2017-02-01

    Density perturbations in cosmology, i.e. spherically symmetric adiabatic perturbations of a Friedmann-Lemaȋtre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) spacetime, are locally exactly equivalent to a different FLRW solution, as long as their wavelength is much larger than the sound horizon of all fluid components. This fact is known as the 'separate universe' paradigm. However, no such relation is known for anisotropic adiabatic perturbations, which correspond to an FLRW spacetime with large-scale tidal fields. Here, we provide a closed, fully relativistic set of evolutionary equations for the nonlinear evolution of such modes, based on the conformal Fermi (CFC) frame. We show explicitly that the tidal effects are encoded by the Weyl tensor, and are hence entirely different from an anisotropic Bianchi I spacetime, where the anisotropy is sourced by the Ricci tensor. In order to close the system, certain higher derivative terms have to be dropped. We show that this approximation is equivalent to the local tidal approximation of Hui and Bertschinger [1]. We also show that this very simple set of equations matches the exact evolution of the density field at second order, but fails at third and higher order. This provides a useful, easy-to-use framework for computing the fully relativistic growth of structure at second order.

  6. Food appropriation through large scale land acquisitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cristina Rulli, Maria; D’Odorico, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The increasing demand for agricultural products and the uncertainty of international food markets has recently drawn the attention of governments and agribusiness firms toward investments in productive agricultural land, mostly in the developing world. The targeted countries are typically located in regions that have remained only marginally utilized because of lack of modern technology. It is expected that in the long run large scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) for commercial farming will bring the technology required to close the existing crops yield gaps. While the extent of the acquired land and the associated appropriation of freshwater resources have been investigated in detail, the amount of food this land can produce and the number of people it could feed still need to be quantified. Here we use a unique dataset of land deals to provide a global quantitative assessment of the rates of crop and food appropriation potentially associated with LSLAs. We show how up to 300–550 million people could be fed by crops grown in the acquired land, should these investments in agriculture improve crop production and close the yield gap. In contrast, about 190–370 million people could be supported by this land without closing of the yield gap. These numbers raise some concern because the food produced in the acquired land is typically exported to other regions, while the target countries exhibit high levels of malnourishment. Conversely, if used for domestic consumption, the crops harvested in the acquired land could ensure food security to the local populations. (letter)

  7. Large Scale EOF Analysis of Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhat, M.; Gittens, A.; Kashinath, K.; Cavanaugh, N. R.; Mahoney, M.

    2016-12-01

    We present a distributed approach towards extracting EOFs from 3D climate data. We implement the method in Apache Spark, and process multi-TB sized datasets on O(1000-10,000) cores. We apply this method to latitude-weighted ocean temperature data from CSFR, a 2.2 terabyte-sized data set comprising ocean and subsurface reanalysis measurements collected at 41 levels in the ocean, at 6 hour intervals over 31 years. We extract the first 100 EOFs of this full data set and compare to the EOFs computed simply on the surface temperature field. Our analyses provide evidence of Kelvin and Rossy waves and components of large-scale modes of oscillation including the ENSO and PDO that are not visible in the usual SST EOFs. Further, they provide information on the the most influential parts of the ocean, such as the thermocline, that exist below the surface. Work is ongoing to understand the factors determining the depth-varying spatial patterns observed in the EOFs. We will experiment with weighting schemes to appropriately account for the differing depths of the observations. We also plan to apply the same distributed approach to analysis of analysis of 3D atmospheric climatic data sets, including multiple variables. Because the atmosphere changes on a quicker time-scale than the ocean, we expect that the results will demonstrate an even greater advantage to computing 3D EOFs in lieu of 2D EOFs.

  8. Mirror dark matter and large scale structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ignatiev, A.Yu.; Volkas, R.R.

    2003-01-01

    Mirror matter is a dark matter candidate. In this paper, we reexamine the linear regime of density perturbation growth in a universe containing mirror dark matter. Taking adiabatic scale-invariant perturbations as the input, we confirm that the resulting processed power spectrum is richer than for the more familiar cases of cold, warm and hot dark matter. The new features include a maximum at a certain scale λ max , collisional damping below a smaller characteristic scale λ S ' , with oscillatory perturbations between the two. These scales are functions of the fundamental parameters of the theory. In particular, they decrease for decreasing x, the ratio of the mirror plasma temperature to that of the ordinary. For x∼0.2, the scale λ max becomes galactic. Mirror dark matter therefore leads to bottom-up large scale structure formation, similar to conventional cold dark matter, for x(less-or-similar sign)0.2. Indeed, the smaller the value of x, the closer mirror dark matter resembles standard cold dark matter during the linear regime. The differences pertain to scales smaller than λ S ' in the linear regime, and generally in the nonlinear regime because mirror dark matter is chemically complex and to some extent dissipative. Lyman-α forest data and the early reionization epoch established by WMAP may hold the key to distinguishing mirror dark matter from WIMP-style cold dark matter

  9. Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

    2013-06-01

    Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

  10. Isotope hydrology and its impact in the developing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verhagen, B.Th.

    2003-01-01

    Ground water has increasingly taken its place in the provision of safe, potable supply in the developing world. Large investments have been made in infrastructural development for rural ground water supply schemes, but far too little attention has been given to assess the sustainability of these supplies. Overexploitation of aquifers, evident in failing boreholes and deteriorating water quality, has become a world-wide concern. Developments in physics half a century ago established the basis of isotope hydrology. Radioactive isotopes give information on ground water dynamics and recharge rates whilst non-radioactive - or stable - isotopes indicate origins of ground water and delineate ground water bodies. Environmental isotope hydrology is increasingly seen as a powerful discipline in assessing ground water systems. This is particularly important in developing environments, where historical data is rarely available. Brief examples are presented of isotope applications to collaborative ground water studies conducted at the University of the Witwatersrand. Recharge estimates based on isotope 'snapshot' data conform well with results from subsequent long-term water level observations in the Kalahari of Botswana. The importance is demonstrated of irrigation return flow and pollution hazard to the Lomagundi dolomite of Zimbabwe. Isotopes suggest the source of high nitrate concentrations to an important ground water supply in Tanzania. Mechanisms of the release of arsenic into millions of tube wells in Bangladesh are put into perspective. Isotope hydrology as appropriate technology is highlighted in terms of its cost-effectiveness and the investigative empowerment of local investigators. (author)

  11. Sensitivity technologies for large scale simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collis, Samuel Scott; Bartlett, Roscoe Ainsworth; Smith, Thomas Michael; Heinkenschloss, Matthias; Wilcox, Lucas C.; Hill, Judith C.; Ghattas, Omar; Berggren, Martin Olof; Akcelik, Volkan; Ober, Curtis Curry; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Keiter, Eric Richard

    2005-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is critically important to numerous analysis algorithms, including large scale optimization, uncertainty quantification,reduced order modeling, and error estimation. Our research focused on developing tools, algorithms and standard interfaces to facilitate the implementation of sensitivity type analysis into existing code and equally important, the work was focused on ways to increase the visibility of sensitivity analysis. We attempt to accomplish the first objective through the development of hybrid automatic differentiation tools, standard linear algebra interfaces for numerical algorithms, time domain decomposition algorithms and two level Newton methods. We attempt to accomplish the second goal by presenting the results of several case studies in which direct sensitivities and adjoint methods have been effectively applied, in addition to an investigation of h-p adaptivity using adjoint based a posteriori error estimation. A mathematical overview is provided of direct sensitivities and adjoint methods for both steady state and transient simulations. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate the utility of these methods. A direct sensitivity method is implemented to solve a source inversion problem for steady state internal flows subject to convection diffusion. Real time performance is achieved using novel decomposition into offline and online calculations. Adjoint methods are used to reconstruct initial conditions of a contamination event in an external flow. We demonstrate an adjoint based transient solution. In addition, we investigated time domain decomposition algorithms in an attempt to improve the efficiency of transient simulations. Because derivative calculations are at the root of sensitivity calculations, we have developed hybrid automatic differentiation methods and implemented this approach for shape optimization for gas dynamics using the Euler equations. The hybrid automatic differentiation method was applied to a first

  12. GPU-based large-scale visualization

    KAUST Repository

    Hadwiger, Markus

    2013-11-19

    Recent advances in image and volume acquisition as well as computational advances in simulation have led to an explosion of the amount of data that must be visualized and analyzed. Modern techniques combine the parallel processing power of GPUs with out-of-core methods and data streaming to enable the interactive visualization of giga- and terabytes of image and volume data. A major enabler for interactivity is making both the computational and the visualization effort proportional to the amount of data that is actually visible on screen, decoupling it from the full data size. This leads to powerful display-aware multi-resolution techniques that enable the visualization of data of almost arbitrary size. The course consists of two major parts: An introductory part that progresses from fundamentals to modern techniques, and a more advanced part that discusses details of ray-guided volume rendering, novel data structures for display-aware visualization and processing, and the remote visualization of large online data collections. You will learn how to develop efficient GPU data structures and large-scale visualizations, implement out-of-core strategies and concepts such as virtual texturing that have only been employed recently, as well as how to use modern multi-resolution representations. These approaches reduce the GPU memory requirements of extremely large data to a working set size that fits into current GPUs. You will learn how to perform ray-casting of volume data of almost arbitrary size and how to render and process gigapixel images using scalable, display-aware techniques. We will describe custom virtual texturing architectures as well as recent hardware developments in this area. We will also describe client/server systems for distributed visualization, on-demand data processing and streaming, and remote visualization. We will describe implementations using OpenGL as well as CUDA, exploiting parallelism on GPUs combined with additional asynchronous

  13. Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.; Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2017-01-01

    Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or

  14. Assessing wetland loss impacts on watershed hydrology using an improved modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Despite the importance of wetland impacts on water cycling, the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) has experienced significant wetland losses. The resultant environmental degradation has not been fully characterized. Our aim is to assess wetland loss impacts on watershed hydrology for an agricultural wa...

  15. Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolentino, Pamela Louise M.; Poortinga, Ate; Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

    2016-01-01

    The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces

  16. Large Scale Self-Organizing Information Distribution System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Low, Steven

    2005-01-01

    This project investigates issues in "large-scale" networks. Here "large-scale" refers to networks with large number of high capacity nodes and transmission links, and shared by a large number of users...

  17. Distributed large-scale dimensional metrology new insights

    CERN Document Server

    Franceschini, Fiorenzo; Maisano, Domenico

    2011-01-01

    Focuses on the latest insights into and challenges of distributed large scale dimensional metrology Enables practitioners to study distributed large scale dimensional metrology independently Includes specific examples of the development of new system prototypes

  18. Probes of large-scale structure in the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suto, Yasushi; Gorski, K.; Juszkiewicz, R.; Silk, J.

    1988-01-01

    Recent progress in observational techniques has made it possible to confront quantitatively various models for the large-scale structure of the Universe with detailed observational data. We develop a general formalism to show that the gravitational instability theory for the origin of large-scale structure is now capable of critically confronting observational results on cosmic microwave background radiation angular anisotropies, large-scale bulk motions and large-scale clumpiness in the galaxy counts. (author)

  19. Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, Govindasamy; Nag, Bappaditya [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change and Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India)

    2012-09-15

    A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO{sub 2} leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (-8.2 W m{sup -2}) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO{sub 2} (3.3 W m{sup -2}) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (-4.2 W m{sup -2}). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification. (orig.)

  20. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

    2017-10-01

    Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  1. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

    2017-01-01

    Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  2. Understanding The Individual Impacts Of Human Interventions And Climate Change On Hydrologic Variables In India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, T.; Chhabra, S., Jr.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    We have quantified the historical climate change and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change impacts on the hydrologic variables of Indian subcontinent by using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) mesoscale model at 0.5° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. The results indicate that the climate change in India has predominating effects on the basic water balance components such as water yield, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This analysis is with the assumption of naturalised hydrologic cycle, i.e., the impacts of human interventions like construction of controlled (primarily dams, diversions and reservoirs) and water withdrawals structures are not taken into account. The assumption is unrealistic since there are numerous anthropogenic disturbances which result in large changes on vegetation composition and distribution patterns. These activities can directly or indirectly influence the dynamics of water cycle; subsequently affecting the hydrologic processes like plant transpiration, infiltration, evaporation, runoff and sublimation. Here, we have quantified the human interventions by using the reservoir and irrigation module of VIC model which incorporates the irrigation schemes, reservoir characteristics and water withdrawals. The impact of human interventions on hydrologic variables in many grids are found more predominant than climate change and might be detrimental to water resources at regional level. This spatial pattern of impacts will facilitate water manager and planners to design and station hydrologic structures for a sustainable water resources management.

  3. Socioeconomic impact indicators relating to water and hydrological policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia Lorca, A.

    2009-01-01

    The work approaches one of the principal problematic ones in order the development of the arid, semiarid and sub humid dry regions, since it is the case of the land management and in I make concrete of that of hydrological management. For it, one presents an offer of design and construction of indicators, from the conceptual perspective of the sustainability, to evaluate the values corresponding to the socioeconomic productivity of the water, in order to motivate the public action in case of the territorial policies in general and sectorial especially. (Author) 4 refs.

  4. Large-Scale Spacecraft Fire Safety Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, David; Ruff, Gary A.; Ferkul, Paul V.; Olson, Sandra; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; T'ien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Cowlard, Adam J.; Rouvreau, Sebastien; Minster, Olivier; hide

    2014-01-01

    An international collaborative program is underway to address open issues in spacecraft fire safety. Because of limited access to long-term low-gravity conditions and the small volume generally allotted for these experiments, there have been relatively few experiments that directly study spacecraft fire safety under low-gravity conditions. Furthermore, none of these experiments have studied sample sizes and environment conditions typical of those expected in a spacecraft fire. The major constraint has been the size of the sample, with prior experiments limited to samples of the order of 10 cm in length and width or smaller. This lack of experimental data forces spacecraft designers to base their designs and safety precautions on 1-g understanding of flame spread, fire detection, and suppression. However, low-gravity combustion research has demonstrated substantial differences in flame behavior in low-gravity. This, combined with the differences caused by the confined spacecraft environment, necessitates practical scale spacecraft fire safety research to mitigate risks for future space missions. To address this issue, a large-scale spacecraft fire experiment is under development by NASA and an international team of investigators. This poster presents the objectives, status, and concept of this collaborative international project (Saffire). The project plan is to conduct fire safety experiments on three sequential flights of an unmanned ISS re-supply spacecraft (the Orbital Cygnus vehicle) after they have completed their delivery of cargo to the ISS and have begun their return journeys to earth. On two flights (Saffire-1 and Saffire-3), the experiment will consist of a flame spread test involving a meter-scale sample ignited in the pressurized volume of the spacecraft and allowed to burn to completion while measurements are made. On one of the flights (Saffire-2), 9 smaller (5 x 30 cm) samples will be tested to evaluate NASAs material flammability screening tests

  5. Large-scale fuel cycle centres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smiley, S.H.; Black, K.M.

    1977-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has considered the nuclear energy centre concept for fuel cycle plants in the Nuclear Energy Centre Site Survey 1975 (NECSS-75) Rep. No. NUREG-0001, an important study mandated by the US Congress in the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 which created the NRC. For this study, the NRC defined fuel cycle centres as consisting of fuel reprocessing and mixed-oxide fuel fabrication plants, and optional high-level waste and transuranic waste management facilities. A range of fuel cycle centre sizes corresponded to the fuel throughput of power plants with a total capacity of 50,000-300,000MW(e). The types of fuel cycle facilities located at the fuel cycle centre permit the assessment of the role of fuel cycle centres in enhancing the safeguard of strategic special nuclear materials - plutonium and mixed oxides. Siting fuel cycle centres presents a smaller problem than siting reactors. A single reprocessing plant of the scale projected for use in the USA (1500-2000t/a) can reprocess fuel from reactors producing 50,000-65,000MW(e). Only two or three fuel cycle centres of the upper limit size considered in the NECSS-75 would be required in the USA by the year 2000. The NECSS-75 fuel cycle centre evaluation showed that large-scale fuel cycle centres present no real technical siting difficulties from a radiological effluent and safety standpoint. Some construction economies may be achievable with fuel cycle centres, which offer opportunities to improve waste-management systems. Combined centres consisting of reactors and fuel reprocessing and mixed-oxide fuel fabrication plants were also studied in the NECSS. Such centres can eliminate shipment not only of Pu but also mixed-oxide fuel. Increased fuel cycle costs result from implementation of combined centres unless the fuel reprocessing plants are commercial-sized. Development of Pu-burning reactors could reduce any economic penalties of combined centres. The need for effective fissile

  6. Hydrological impacts of land use change in three diverse South African catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warburton, Michele L.; Schulze, Roland E.; Jewitt, Graham P. W.

    2012-01-01

    SummaryIn order to meet society's needs for water, food, fuel and fibre, the earth's natural land cover and land use have been significantly changed. These changes have impacted on the hydrological responses and thus available water resources, as the hydrological responses of a catchment are dependent upon, and sensitive to, changes in the land use. The degree of anthropogenic modification of the land cover, the intensity of the land use changes and location of land uses within a catchment determines the extent to which land uses influences hydrological response of a catchment. The objective of the study was to improve understanding of the complex interactions between hydrological response and land use to aid in water resources planning. To achieve this, a hydrological model, viz. the ACRU agrohydrological model, which adequately represents hydrological processes and is sensitive to land use changes, was used to generate hydrological responses from three diverse, complex and operational South African catchments under both current land use and a baseline land cover. The selected catchments vary with respect to both land use and climate. The semi-arid sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas, whereas in the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment the primary land uses are commercial orchards and vineyards. The sub-humid Mgeni catchment is dominated by commercial plantation forestry in the upper reaches, commercial sugarcane and urban areas in the middle reaches, with the lower reaches dominated by urban areas. The hydrological responses of the selected catchments to land use change were complex. Results showed that the contributions of different land uses to the streamflow generated from a catchment is not proportional to the relative area of that land use, and the relative contribution of the land use to the catchment streamflow varies with the mean annual rainfall of the catchment. Furthermore

  7. Climate impacts on the hydrology of prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko; Rowsell, R.D.

    1991-01-01

    A study was carried out in the St. Denis National Wildlife Area, 45 km east of Saskatoon, to observe the hydrological processes and the temporal and spatial variability of slough responses to climate. One slough was instrumented for detailed study, showing that the high water level in spring was supported by snowmelt. In summer, rainfall was the major source of water supply, but was exceeded by losses to evaporation and groundwater recharge, leading to a decline of the water table and complete drying by June 13th. The duration that water remains in sloughs varies temporally and spatially. Ephemeral sloughs, deriving water mainly from snowmelt, tend to occupy higher ground, temporary sloughs rely on precipitation and surface runoff, and may receive groundwater discharge during wetter years. Permanent sloughs often occupy lower areas, receiving water from precipitation, lateral runoff, and groundwater discharge which buffers them from year to year fluctuations in precipitation. Tree ring analyses showed that meltwater is the major factor influencing tree growth, correlating the spatial variability of slough inundation to the temporal variability of winter snowfall. A study of slough hydrology is important to the understanding of the responses of Prairie wetlands to climatic variability and change. 17 refs., 2 figs

  8. Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Controlled Drainage Using DRAINMOD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saadat, S.; Bowling, L. C.; Frankenberger, J.

    2017-12-01

    Controlled drainage is a management strategy designed to mitigate water quality issues caused by subsurface drainage but it may increase surface ponding and runoff. To improve controlled drainage system management, a long-term and broader study is needed that goes beyond the experimental studies. Therefore, the goal of this study was to parametrize the DRAINMOD field-scale, hydrologic model for the Davis Purdue Agricultural Center located in Eastern Indiana and to predict the subsurface drain flow and surface runoff and ponding at this research site. The Green-Ampt equation was used to characterize the infiltration, and digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to estimate the maximum depressional storage as the surface ponding parameter inputs to DRAINMOD. Hydraulic conductivity was estimated using the Hooghoudt equation and the measured drain flow and water table depths. Other model inputs were either estimated or taken from the measurements. The DRAINMOD model was calibrated and validated by comparing model predictions of subsurface drainage and water table depths with field observations from 2012 to 2016. Simulations based on the DRAINMOD model can increase understanding of the environmental and hydrological effects over a broader temporal and spatial scale than is possible using field-scale data and this is useful for developing management recommendations for water resources at field and watershed scales.

  9. a Stochastic Approach to Multiobjective Optimization of Large-Scale Water Reservoir Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Worman, A. L.

    2013-12-01

    A main challenge for the planning and management of water resources is the development of multiobjective strategies for operation of large-scale water reservoir networks. The optimal sequence of water releases from multiple reservoirs depends on the stochastic variability of correlated hydrologic inflows and on various processes that affect water demand and energy prices. Although several methods have been suggested, large-scale optimization problems arising in water resources management are still plagued by the high dimensional state space and by the stochastic nature of the hydrologic inflows. In this work, the optimization of reservoir operation is approached using approximate dynamic programming (ADP) with policy iteration and function approximators. The method is based on an off-line learning process in which operating policies are evaluated for a number of stochastic inflow scenarios, and the resulting value functions are used to design new, improved policies until convergence is attained. A case study is presented of a multi-reservoir system in the Dalälven River, Sweden, which includes 13 interconnected reservoirs and 36 power stations. Depending on the late spring and summer peak discharges, the lowlands adjacent to Dalälven can often be flooded during the summer period, and the presence of stagnating floodwater during the hottest months of the year is the cause of a large proliferation of mosquitos, which is a major problem for the people living in the surroundings. Chemical pesticides are currently being used as a preventive countermeasure, which do not provide an effective solution to the problem and have adverse environmental impacts. In this study, ADP was used to analyze the feasibility of alternative operating policies for reducing the flood risk at a reasonable economic cost for the hydropower companies. To this end, mid-term operating policies were derived by combining flood risk reduction with hydropower production objectives. The performance

  10. Hydrological functions of a mine-impacted and natural peatland-dominated watershed, James Bay Lowland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Leclair

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights: Deep seepage (groundwater recharge varied with marine sediment thickness and represented a significant loss to the local system. Large downward fluxes were also measured in fen systems that are typically local discharge zones. Evaporation rates were also found to be lower in the bogs and fens and where impacted by lower water tables. When evaluating the water balance, with only 14.5% of the watershed impacted by the mine, the hydrological function of the entire watershed is more driven by seasonal climate variations than mine dewatering.

  11. Large-Scale Aerosol Modeling and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-30

    intrusion that occurred over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) during the last few decades. NAAPS simulations were used to investigate the origin and...Torres, R. Rodrigo, J. de la Rosa, and A. M. De Frutos, Strongest desert dust intrusion mixed with smoke over the Iberian Peninsula registered with...impact cloud processes globally. With increasing dust storms due to climate change and land use changes in desert regions, the impact of the

  12. Large scale injection test (LASGIT) modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnedo, D.; Olivella, S.; Alonso, E.E.

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. With the objective of understanding the gas flow processes through clay barriers in schemes of radioactive waste disposal, the Lasgit in situ experiment was planned and is currently in progress. The modelling of the experiment will permit to better understand of the responses, to confirm hypothesis of mechanisms and processes and to learn in order to design future experiments. The experiment and modelling activities are included in the project FORGE (FP7). The in situ large scale injection test Lasgit is currently being performed at the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory by SKB and BGS. An schematic layout of the test is shown. The deposition hole follows the KBS3 scheme. A copper canister is installed in the axe of the deposition hole, surrounded by blocks of highly compacted MX-80 bentonite. A concrete plug is placed at the top of the buffer. A metallic lid anchored to the surrounding host rock is included in order to prevent vertical movements of the whole system during gas injection stages (high gas injection pressures are expected to be reached). Hydration of the buffer material is achieved by injecting water through filter mats, two placed at the rock walls and two at the interfaces between bentonite blocks. Water is also injected through the 12 canister filters. Gas injection stages are performed injecting gas to some of the canister injection filters. Since the water pressure and the stresses (swelling pressure development) will be high during gas injection, it is necessary to inject at high gas pressures. This implies mechanical couplings as gas penetrates after the gas entry pressure is achieved and may produce deformations which in turn lead to permeability increments. A 3D hydro-mechanical numerical model of the test using CODE-BRIGHT is presented. The domain considered for the modelling is shown. The materials considered in the simulation are the MX-80 bentonite blocks (cylinders and rings), the concrete plug

  13. Large-scale fuel cycle centers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smiley, S.H.; Black, K.M.

    1977-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has considered the nuclear energy center concept for fuel cycle plants in the Nuclear Energy Center Site Survey - 1975 (NECSS-75) -- an important study mandated by the U.S. Congress in the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 which created the NRC. For the study, NRC defined fuel cycle centers to consist of fuel reprocessing and mixed oxide fuel fabrication plants, and optional high-level waste and transuranic waste management facilities. A range of fuel cycle center sizes corresponded to the fuel throughput of power plants with a total capacity of 50,000 - 300,000 MWe. The types of fuel cycle facilities located at the fuel cycle center permit the assessment of the role of fuel cycle centers in enhancing safeguarding of strategic special nuclear materials -- plutonium and mixed oxides. Siting of fuel cycle centers presents a considerably smaller problem than the siting of reactors. A single reprocessing plant of the scale projected for use in the United States (1500-2000 MT/yr) can reprocess the fuel from reactors producing 50,000-65,000 MWe. Only two or three fuel cycle centers of the upper limit size considered in the NECSS-75 would be required in the United States by the year 2000 . The NECSS-75 fuel cycle center evaluations showed that large scale fuel cycle centers present no real technical difficulties in siting from a radiological effluent and safety standpoint. Some construction economies may be attainable with fuel cycle centers; such centers offer opportunities for improved waste management systems. Combined centers consisting of reactors and fuel reprocessing and mixed oxide fuel fabrication plants were also studied in the NECSS. Such centers can eliminate not only shipment of plutonium, but also mixed oxide fuel. Increased fuel cycle costs result from implementation of combined centers unless the fuel reprocessing plants are commercial-sized. Development of plutonium-burning reactors could reduce any

  14. Large-scale assembly of colloidal particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hongta

    This study reports a simple, roll-to-roll compatible coating technology for producing three-dimensional highly ordered colloidal crystal-polymer composites, colloidal crystals, and macroporous polymer membranes. A vertically beveled doctor blade is utilized to shear align silica microsphere-monomer suspensions to form large-area composites in a single step. The polymer matrix and the silica microspheres can be selectively removed to create colloidal crystals and self-standing macroporous polymer membranes. The thickness of the shear-aligned crystal is correlated with the viscosity of the colloidal suspension and the coating speed, and the correlations can be qualitatively explained by adapting the mechanisms developed for conventional doctor blade coating. Five important research topics related to the application of large-scale three-dimensional highly ordered macroporous films by doctor blade coating are covered in this study. The first topic describes the invention in large area and low cost color reflective displays. This invention is inspired by the heat pipe technology. The self-standing macroporous polymer films exhibit brilliant colors which originate from the Bragg diffractive of visible light form the three-dimensional highly ordered air cavities. The colors can be easily changed by tuning the size of the air cavities to cover the whole visible spectrum. When the air cavities are filled with a solvent which has the same refractive index as that of the polymer, the macroporous polymer films become completely transparent due to the index matching. When the solvent trapped in the cavities is evaporated by in-situ heating, the sample color changes back to brilliant color. This process is highly reversible and reproducible for thousands of cycles. The second topic reports the achievement of rapid and reversible vapor detection by using 3-D macroporous photonic crystals. Capillary condensation of a condensable vapor in the interconnected macropores leads to the

  15. Estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veijalainen, N.

    2012-07-01

    Climate scenarios project increases in air temperature and precipitation in Finland during the 21st century and these will results in changes in hydrology. In this thesis climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland were estimated with hydrological modelling and several climate scenarios. One of the goals was to understand the influence of different processes and catchment characteristics on the hydrological response to climate change in boreal conditions. The tool of the climate change impact assessment was the conceptual hydrological model WSFS (Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System). The studies employed and compared two methods of transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the WSFS hydrological model (delta change approach and direct bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data). Direct RCM data was used to simulate transient hydrological scenarios for 1951- 2100 and the simulation results were analysed to detect changes in water balance components and trends in discharge series. The results revealed that seasonal changes in discharges in Finland were the clearest impacts of climate change. Air temperature increase will affect snow accumulation and melt, increase winter discharge and decrease spring snowmelt discharge. The impacts of climate change on floods in Finland by 2070-2099 varied considerably depending on the location, catchment characteristics, timing of the floods and climate scenario. Floods caused by spring snowmelt decreased or remained unchanged, whereas autumn and winter floods caused by precipitation increased especially in large lakes and their outflow rivers. Since estimation of climate change impacts includes uncertainties in every step of the long modelling process, the accumulated uncertainties by the end of the process become large. The large differences between results from different climate scenarios highlight the need to use several climate scenarios in climate change impact studies

  16. Impact of Sub-grid Soil Textural Properties on Simulations of Hydrological Fluxes at the Continental Scale Mississippi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.; Livneh, B.

    2013-12-01

    Knowledge of soil hydraulic properties such as porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity is required to accurately model the dynamics of near-surface hydrological processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and root-zone soil moisture dynamics) and provide reliable estimates of regional water and energy budgets. Soil hydraulic properties are commonly derived from pedo-transfer functions using soil textural information recorded during surveys, such as the fractions of sand and clay, bulk density, and organic matter content. Typically large scale land-surface models are parameterized using a relatively coarse soil map with little or no information on parametric sub-grid variability. In this study we analyze the impact of sub-grid soil variability on simulated hydrological fluxes over the Mississippi River Basin (≈3,240,000 km2) at multiple spatio-temporal resolutions. A set of numerical experiments were conducted with the distributed mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) using two soil datasets: (a) the Digital General Soil Map of the United States or STATSGO2 (1:250 000) and (b) the recently collated Harmonized World Soil Database based on the FAO-UNESCO Soil Map of the World (1:5 000 000). mHM was parameterized with the multi-scale regionalization technique that derives distributed soil hydraulic properties via pedo-transfer functions and regional coefficients. Within the experimental framework, the 3-hourly model simulations were conducted at four spatial resolutions ranging from 0.125° to 1°, using meteorological datasets from the NLDAS-2 project for the time period 1980-2012. Preliminary results indicate that the model was able to capture observed streamflow behavior reasonably well with both soil datasets, in the major sub-basins (i.e. the Missouri, the Upper Mississippi, the Ohio, the Red, and the Arkansas). However, the spatio-temporal patterns of simulated water fluxes and states (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration) from both simulations, showed marked

  17. Impact of precipitation spatial resolution on the hydrological response of an integrated distributed water resources model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fu, Suhua; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    Precipitation is a key input variable to hydrological models, and the spatial variability of the input is expected to impact the hydrological response predicted by a distributed model. In this study, the effect of spatial resolution of precipitation on runoff , recharge and groundwater head...... of the total catchment and runoff discharge hydrograph at watershed outlet. On the other hand, groundwater recharge and groundwater head were both aff ected. The impact of the spatial resolution of precipitation input is reduced with increasing catchment size. The effect on stream discharge is relatively low...... was analyzed in the Alergaarde catchment in Denmark. Six different precipitation spatial resolutions were used as inputs to a physically based, distributed hydrological model, the MIKE SHE model. The results showed that the resolution of precipitation input had no apparent effect on annual water balance...

  18. Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a

  19. Thermal power generation projects ``Large Scale Solar Heating``; EU-Thermie-Projekte ``Large Scale Solar Heating``

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuebler, R.; Fisch, M.N. [Steinbeis-Transferzentrum Energie-, Gebaeude- und Solartechnik, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1998-12-31

    The aim of this project is the preparation of the ``Large-Scale Solar Heating`` programme for an Europe-wide development of subject technology. The following demonstration programme was judged well by the experts but was not immediately (1996) accepted for financial subsidies. In November 1997 the EU-commission provided 1,5 million ECU which allowed the realisation of an updated project proposal. By mid 1997 a small project was approved, that had been requested under the lead of Chalmes Industriteteknik (CIT) in Sweden and is mainly carried out for the transfer of technology. (orig.) [Deutsch] Ziel dieses Vorhabens ist die Vorbereitung eines Schwerpunktprogramms `Large Scale Solar Heating`, mit dem die Technologie europaweit weiterentwickelt werden sollte. Das daraus entwickelte Demonstrationsprogramm wurde von den Gutachtern positiv bewertet, konnte jedoch nicht auf Anhieb (1996) in die Foerderung aufgenommen werden. Im November 1997 wurden von der EU-Kommission dann kurzfristig noch 1,5 Mio ECU an Foerderung bewilligt, mit denen ein aktualisierter Projektvorschlag realisiert werden kann. Bereits Mitte 1997 wurde ein kleineres Vorhaben bewilligt, das unter Federfuehrung von Chalmers Industriteknik (CIT) in Schweden beantragt worden war und das vor allem dem Technologietransfer dient. (orig.)

  20. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mondal

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  1. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

  2. The Saskatchewan River Basin - a large scale observatory for water security research (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheater, H. S.

    2013-12-01

    multiple jurisdictions. The SaskRB has therefore been developed as a large scale observatory, now a Regional Hydroclimate Project of the World Climate Research Programme's GEWEX project, and is available to contribute to the emerging North American Water Program. State-of-the-art hydro-ecological experimental sites have been developed for the key biomes, and a river and lake biogeochemical research facility, focussed on impacts of nutrients and exotic chemicals. Data are integrated at SaskRB scale to support the development of improved large scale climate and hydrological modelling products, the development of DSS systems for local, provincial and basin-scale management, and the development of related social science research, engaging stakeholders in the research and exploring their values and priorities for water security. The observatory provides multiple scales of observation and modelling required to develop: a) new climate, hydrological and ecological science and modelling tools to address environmental change in key environments, and their integrated effects and feedbacks at large catchment scale, b) new tools needed to support river basin management under uncertainty, including anthropogenic controls on land and water management and c) the place-based focus for the development of new transdisciplinary science.

  3. The Effect of Large Scale Salinity Gradient on Langmuir Turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Y.; Jarosz, E.; Yu, Z.; Jensen, T.; Sullivan, P. P.; Liang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Langmuir circulation (LC) is believed to be one of the leading order causes of turbulent mixing in the upper ocean. It is important for momentum and heat exchange across the mixed layer (ML) and directly impact the dynamics and thermodynamics in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere including the vertical distributions of chemical, biological, optical, and acoustic properties. Based on Craik and Leibovich (1976) theory, large eddy simulation (LES) models have been developed to simulate LC in the upper ocean, yielding new insights that could not be obtained from field observations and turbulent closure models. Due its high computational cost, LES models are usually limited to small domain sizes and cannot resolve large-scale flows. Furthermore, most LES models used in the LC simulations use periodic boundary conditions in the horizontal direction, which assumes the physical properties (i.e. temperature and salinity) and expected flow patterns in the area of interest are of a periodically repeating nature so that the limited small LES domain is representative for the larger area. Using periodic boundary condition can significantly reduce computational effort in problems, and it is a good assumption for isotropic shear turbulence. However, LC is anisotropic (McWilliams et al 1997) and was observed to be modulated by crosswind tidal currents (Kukulka et al 2011). Using symmetrical domains, idealized LES studies also indicate LC could interact with oceanic fronts (Hamlington et al 2014) and standing internal waves (Chini and Leibovich, 2005). The present study expands our previous LES modeling investigations of Langmuir turbulence to the real ocean conditions with large scale environmental motion that features fresh water inflow into the study region. Large scale gradient forcing is introduced to the NCAR LES model through scale separation analysis. The model is applied to a field observation in the Gulf of Mexico in July, 2016 when the measurement site was impacted by

  4. Large-scale demonstration of waste solidification in saltstone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McIntyre, P.F.; Oblath, S.B.; Wilhite, E.L.

    1988-05-01

    The saltstone lysimeters are a large scale demonstration of a disposal concept for decontaminated salt solution resulting from in-tank processing of defense waste. The lysimeter experiment has provided data on the leaching behavior of large saltstone monoliths under realistic field conditions. The results also will be used to compare the effect of capping the wasteform on contaminant release. Biweekly monitoring of sump leachate from three lysimeters has continued on a routine basis for approximately 3 years. An uncapped lysimeter has shown the highest levels of nitrate and 99 Tc release. Gravel and clay capped lysimeters have shown levels equivalent to or slightly higher than background rainwater levels. Mathematical model predictions have been compared to lysimeter results. The models will be applied to predict the impact of saltstone disposal on groundwater quality. 9 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  5. Traffic assignment models in large-scale applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær

    the potential of the method proposed and the possibility to use individual-based GPS units for travel surveys in real-life large-scale multi-modal networks. Congestion is known to highly influence the way we act in the transportation network (and organise our lives), because of longer travel times...... of observations of actual behaviour to obtain estimates of the (monetary) value of different travel time components, thereby increasing the behavioural realism of largescale models. vii The generation of choice sets is a vital component in route choice models. This is, however, not a straight-forward task in real......, but the reliability of the travel time also has a large impact on our travel choices. Consequently, in order to improve the realism of transport models, correct understanding and representation of two values that are related to the value of time (VoT) are essential: (i) the value of congestion (VoC), as the Vo...

  6. Isolating relativistic effects in large-scale structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonvin, Camille

    2014-12-01

    We present a fully relativistic calculation of the observed galaxy number counts in the linear regime. We show that besides the density fluctuations and redshift-space distortions, various relativistic effects contribute to observations at large scales. These effects all have the same physical origin: they result from the fact that our coordinate system, namely the galaxy redshift and the incoming photons’ direction, is distorted by inhomogeneities in our Universe. We then discuss the impact of the relativistic effects on the angular power spectrum and on the two-point correlation function in configuration space. We show that the latter is very well adapted to isolate the relativistic effects since it naturally makes use of the symmetries of the different contributions. In particular, we discuss how the Doppler effect and the gravitational redshift distortions can be isolated by looking for a dipole in the cross-correlation function between a bright and a faint population of galaxies.

  7. Climate change impacts on freshwater wetland hydrology and vegetation cover cycling along a regional aridity gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global mean temperature may increase up to 6°C by the end of this century and together with precipitation change may steepen regional aridity gradients, impacting the hydrology, productivity, diversity, and ecosystem goods and services from freshwater wetlands, where the water balance is tightly cou...

  8. Impact of climate change on the streamflow hydrology of the Yangtze River in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuotuo River basin, the source region of the Yangtze River, is the key area, where the impact of climate change has been observed on many of the hydrological processes of this central region of the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we examined six global climate models (GCMs) under three Respectively ...

  9. A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

    2018-02-01

    A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.

  10. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauri, H.; de Moel, H.; Ward, P.J.; Räsänen, T.A.; Keskinen, M.; Kummu, M.S.

    2012-01-01

    The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected

  11. Vegetation impact on the hydrology of an aeolian sandy soil in a continental climate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lichner, Ľ.; Hallett, P. D.; Orfánus, T.; Czachor, H.; Rajkai, K.; Šír, Miloslav; Tesař, Miroslav

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 3, č. 4 (2010), s. 413-420 ISSN 1936-0584 R&D Projects: GA MŠk MEB0808114 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : sandy soil * water repellency * plant cover * sorptivity * hydraulic conductivity Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.835, year: 2010

  12. Hydrological processes and model representation: impact of soft data on calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.G. Arnold; M.A. Youssef; H. Yen; M.J. White; A.Y. Sheshukov; A.M. Sadeghi; D.N. Moriasi; J.L. Steiner; Devendra Amatya; R.W. Skaggs; E.B. Haney; J. Jeong; M. Arabi; P.H. Gowda

    2015-01-01

    Hydrologic and water quality models are increasingly used to determine the environmental impacts of climate variability and land management. Due to differing model objectives and differences in monitored data, there are currently no universally accepted procedures for model calibration and validation in the literature. In an effort to develop accepted model calibration...

  13. Analysis using large-scale ringing data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baillie, S. R.

    2004-06-01

    survival and recruitment estimates from the French CES scheme to assess the relative contributions of survival and recruitment to overall population changes. He develops a novel approach to modelling survival rates from such multi–site data by using within–year recaptures to provide a covariate of between–year recapture rates. This provided parsimonious models of variation in recapture probabilities between sites and years. The approach provides promising results for the four species investigated and can potentially be extended to similar data from other CES/MAPS schemes. The final paper by Blandine Doligez, David Thomson and Arie van Noordwijk (Doligez et al., 2004 illustrates how large-scale studies of population dynamics can be important for evaluating the effects of conservation measures. Their study is concerned with the reintroduction of White Stork populations to the Netherlands where a re–introduction programme started in 1969 had resulted in a breeding population of 396 pairs by 2000. They demonstrate the need to consider a wide range of models in order to account for potential age, time, cohort and “trap–happiness” effects. As the data are based on resightings such trap–happiness must reflect some form of heterogeneity in resighting probabilities. Perhaps surprisingly, the provision of supplementary food did not influence survival, but it may havehad an indirect effect via the alteration of migratory behaviour. Spatially explicit modelling of data gathered at many sites inevitably results in starting models with very large numbers of parameters. The problem is often complicated further by having relatively sparse data at each site, even where the total amount of data gathered is very large. Both Julliard (2004 and Doligez et al. (2004 give explicit examples of problems caused by needing to handle very large numbers of parameters and show how they overcame them for their particular data sets. Such problems involve both the choice of appropriate

  14. Automatic management software for large-scale cluster system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weng Yunjian; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; Sun Gongxing

    2007-01-01

    At present, the large-scale cluster system faces to the difficult management. For example the manager has large work load. It needs to cost much time on the management and the maintenance of large-scale cluster system. The nodes in large-scale cluster system are very easy to be chaotic. Thousands of nodes are put in big rooms so that some managers are very easy to make the confusion with machines. How do effectively carry on accurate management under the large-scale cluster system? The article introduces ELFms in the large-scale cluster system. Furthermore, it is proposed to realize the large-scale cluster system automatic management. (authors)

  15. Biopolitics problems of large-scale hydraulic engineering construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanenko, V.D.

    1997-01-01

    The XX century which will enter in a history as a century of large-scale hydraulic engineering constructions come to the finish. Only on the European continent 517 large reservoirs (more than 1000 million km 3 of water were detained, had been constructed for a period from 1901 till 1985. In the Danube basin a plenty for reservoirs of power stations, navigations, navigating sluices and other hydraulic engineering structures are constructed. Among them more than 40 especially large objects are located along the main bed of the river. A number of hydro-complexes such as Dnieper-Danube and Gabcikovo, Danube-Oder-Labe (project), Danube-Tissa, Danube-Adriatic Sea (project), Danube-Aegean Sea, Danube-Black Sea ones, are entered into operation or are in a stage of designing. Hydraulic engineering construction was especially heavily conducted in Ukraine. On its territory some large reservoirs on Dnieper and Yuzhny Bug were constructed, which have heavily changed the hydrological regime of the rivers. Summarised the results of river systems regulating in Ukraine one can be noted that more than 27 thousand ponds (3 km 3 per year), 1098 reservoirs of total volume 55 km 3 , 11 large channels of total length more than 2000 km and with productivity of 1000 m 2 /s have been created in Ukraine. Hydraulic engineering construction played an important role in development of the industry and agriculture, water-supply of the cities and settlements, in environmental effects, and maintenance of safe navigation in Danube, Dnieper and other rivers. In next part of the paper, the environmental changes after construction of the Karakum Channel on the Aral Sea in the Middle Asia are discussed

  16. Impact of different satellite soil moisture products on the predictions of a continuous distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, P.; Gabellani, S.; Campo, L.; Silvestro, F.; Delogu, F.; Rudari, R.; Pulvirenti, L.; Boni, G.; Fascetti, F.; Pierdicca, N.; Crapolicchio, R.; Hasenauer, S.; Puca, S.

    2016-06-01

    The reliable estimation of hydrological variables in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the flood predictions and hydrological cycle description. Nowadays remotely sensed data can offer a chance to improve hydrological models especially in environments with scarce ground based data. The aim of this work is to update the state variables of a physically based, distributed and continuous hydrological model using four different satellite-derived data (three soil moisture products and a land surface temperature measurement) and one soil moisture analysis to evaluate, even with a non optimal technique, the impact on the hydrological cycle. The experiments were carried out for a small catchment, in the northern part of Italy, for the period July 2012-June 2013. The products were pre-processed according to their own characteristics and then they were assimilated into the model using a simple nudging technique. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge were tested against observations. The analysis showed a general improvement of the model discharge predictions, even with a simple assimilation technique, for all the assimilation experiments; the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient was increased from 0.6 (relative to the model without assimilation) to 0.7, moreover, errors on discharge were reduced up to the 10%. An added value to the model was found in the rainfall season (autumn): all the assimilation experiments reduced the errors up to the 20%. This demonstrated that discharge prediction of a distributed hydrological model, which works at fine scale resolution in a small basin, can be improved with the assimilation of coarse-scale satellite-derived data.

  17. Large scale chromatographic separations using continuous displacement chromatography (CDC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, V.T.; Doty, A.W.; Byers, C.H.

    1988-01-01

    A process for large scale chromatographic separations using a continuous chromatography technique is described. The process combines the advantages of large scale batch fixed column displacement chromatography with conventional analytical or elution continuous annular chromatography (CAC) to enable large scale displacement chromatography to be performed on a continuous basis (CDC). Such large scale, continuous displacement chromatography separations have not been reported in the literature. The process is demonstrated with the ion exchange separation of a binary lanthanide (Nd/Pr) mixture. The process is, however, applicable to any displacement chromatography separation that can be performed using conventional batch, fixed column chromatography

  18. A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

  19. Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droogers, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario

  20. A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

    2017-01-01

    For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

  1. Land Sea Level Difference Impacts on Socio-Hydrological System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.; Oh, W. S.; Sangwan, N.

    2016-12-01

    Allowing moderate shocks can be a new solution that helps to build adaptive capacity in society is a rising issue. In Social-Ecological field, Carpenter et al. (2015) suggested that exposure to short-term variability leads to long term resilience by enlarging safe operating space (SOS). The SOS refers to the boundary of favorable state that ecosystem can maintain resilience without imposing certain conditions (Carpenter et al. 2015). Our work is motivated by defining SOS in socio-hydrological system(SHS) because it can be an alternative way for flood management beyond optimized or robust flood control. In this context, large flood events that make system to cross the SOS should be fully managed, but frequent small floods need to be allowed if the system is located in SOS. Especially, land sea level change is critical factor to change flood resilience since it is one of the most substantial disturbance that changes the entire boundary of SOS. In order to have broader perspective of vulnerability and resilience of the coastal region, it is crucial to understand the land sea level dynamics changed with human activities and natural variances.The risk of land sea level change has been researched , but most of these researches have focused on explain cause and effect of land sea level change, paying little attention to its dynamics interacts with human activities. Thus, an objective of this research is to study dynamics of human work, land sea level change and resilience to flood with SOS approach. Especially, we focus on the case in Ganges-Brahmaputra, Bangladesh where has high vulnerability to flood, and is faced with relatively rapid land sea level change problem. To acheive the goal, this study will develop a stylized model by extending the human - flood interaction model combined with relative sea level difference equation. The model describes the dynamics of flood protection system which is changed by SHS and land sea level chage. we will focus on the aggradation

  2. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  3. In situ vitrification large-scale operational acceptance test analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buelt, J.L.; Carter, J.G.

    1986-05-01

    A thermal treatment process is currently under study to provide possible enhancement of in-place stabilization of transuranic and chemically contaminated soil sites. The process is known as in situ vitrification (ISV). In situ vitrification is a remedial action process that destroys solid and liquid organic contaminants and incorporates radionuclides into a glass-like material that renders contaminants substantially less mobile and less likely to impact the environment. A large-scale operational acceptance test (LSOAT) was recently completed in which more than 180 t of vitrified soil were produced in each of three adjacent settings. The LSOAT demonstrated that the process conforms to the functional design criteria necessary for the large-scale radioactive test (LSRT) to be conducted following verification of the performance capabilities of the process. The energy requirements and vitrified block size, shape, and mass are sufficiently equivalent to those predicted by the ISV mathematical model to confirm its usefulness as a predictive tool. The LSOAT demonstrated an electrode replacement technique, which can be used if an electrode fails, and techniques have been identified to minimize air oxidation, thereby extending electrode life. A statistical analysis was employed during the LSOAT to identify graphite collars and an insulative surface as successful cold cap subsidence techniques. The LSOAT also showed that even under worst-case conditions, the off-gas system exceeds the flow requirements necessary to maintain a negative pressure on the hood covering the area being vitrified. The retention of simulated radionuclides and chemicals in the soil and off-gas system exceeds requirements so that projected emissions are one to two orders of magnitude below the maximum permissible concentrations of contaminants at the stack

  4. Climate change impact assessment on various components of the hydrological regime of the Malše river basin

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Němečková, Soňa; Slámová, Romana; Šípek, Václav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 2 (2011), s. 131-143 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : climate change * hydrological modelling * hydrological cycle Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2011

  5. Responses in large-scale structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreira, Alexandre; Schmidt, Fabian, E-mail: barreira@MPA-Garching.MPG.DE, E-mail: fabians@MPA-Garching.MPG.DE [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, 85741 Garching (Germany)

    2017-06-01

    We introduce a rigorous definition of general power-spectrum responses as resummed vertices with two hard and n soft momenta in cosmological perturbation theory. These responses measure the impact of long-wavelength perturbations on the local small-scale power spectrum. The kinematic structure of the responses (i.e., their angular dependence) can be decomposed unambiguously through a ''bias'' expansion of the local power spectrum, with a fixed number of physical response coefficients , which are only a function of the hard wavenumber k . Further, the responses up to n -th order completely describe the ( n +2)-point function in the squeezed limit, i.e. with two hard and n soft modes, which one can use to derive the response coefficients. This generalizes previous results, which relate the angle-averaged squeezed limit to isotropic response coefficients. We derive the complete expression of first- and second-order responses at leading order in perturbation theory, and present extrapolations to nonlinear scales based on simulation measurements of the isotropic response coefficients. As an application, we use these results to predict the non-Gaussian part of the angle-averaged matter power spectrum covariance Cov{sup NG}{sub ℓ=0}( k {sub 1}, k {sub 2}), in the limit where one of the modes, say k {sub 2}, is much smaller than the other. Without any free parameters, our model results are in very good agreement with simulations for k {sub 2} ∼< 0.06 h Mpc{sup −1}, and for any k {sub 1} ∼> 2 k {sub 2}. The well-defined kinematic structure of the power spectrum response also permits a quick evaluation of the angular dependence of the covariance matrix. While we focus on the matter density field, the formalism presented here can be generalized to generic tracers such as galaxies.

  6. Responses in large-scale structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreira, Alexandre; Schmidt, Fabian

    2017-06-01

    We introduce a rigorous definition of general power-spectrum responses as resummed vertices with two hard and n soft momenta in cosmological perturbation theory. These responses measure the impact of long-wavelength perturbations on the local small-scale power spectrum. The kinematic structure of the responses (i.e., their angular dependence) can be decomposed unambiguously through a ``bias'' expansion of the local power spectrum, with a fixed number of physical response coefficients, which are only a function of the hard wavenumber k. Further, the responses up to n-th order completely describe the (n+2)-point function in the squeezed limit, i.e. with two hard and n soft modes, which one can use to derive the response coefficients. This generalizes previous results, which relate the angle-averaged squeezed limit to isotropic response coefficients. We derive the complete expression of first- and second-order responses at leading order in perturbation theory, and present extrapolations to nonlinear scales based on simulation measurements of the isotropic response coefficients. As an application, we use these results to predict the non-Gaussian part of the angle-averaged matter power spectrum covariance CovNGl=0(k1,k2), in the limit where one of the modes, say k2, is much smaller than the other. Without any free parameters, our model results are in very good agreement with simulations for k2 lesssim 0.06 h Mpc-1, and for any k1 gtrsim 2k2. The well-defined kinematic structure of the power spectrum response also permits a quick evaluation of the angular dependence of the covariance matrix. While we focus on the matter density field, the formalism presented here can be generalized to generic tracers such as galaxies.

  7. Large-Scale Pattern Discovery in Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertin-Mahieux, Thierry

    This work focuses on extracting patterns in musical data from very large collections. The problem is split in two parts. First, we build such a large collection, the Million Song Dataset, to provide researchers access to commercial-size datasets. Second, we use this collection to study cover song recognition which involves finding harmonic patterns from audio features. Regarding the Million Song Dataset, we detail how we built the original collection from an online API, and how we encouraged other organizations to participate in the project. The result is the largest research dataset with heterogeneous sources of data available to music technology researchers. We demonstrate some of its potential and discuss the impact it already has on the field. On cover song recognition, we must revisit the existing literature since there are no publicly available results on a dataset of more than a few thousand entries. We present two solutions to tackle the problem, one using a hashing method, and one using a higher-level feature computed from the chromagram (dubbed the 2DFTM). We further investigate the 2DFTM since it has potential to be a relevant representation for any task involving audio harmonic content. Finally, we discuss the future of the dataset and the hope of seeing more work making use of the different sources of data that are linked in the Million Song Dataset. Regarding cover songs, we explain how this might be a first step towards defining a harmonic manifold of music, a space where harmonic similarities between songs would be more apparent.

  8. Satellite based radar interferometry to estimate large-scale soil water depletion from clay shrinkage: possibilities and limitations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brake, te B.; Hanssen, R.F.; Ploeg, van der M.J.; Rooij, de G.H.

    2013-01-01

    Satellite-based radar interferometry is a technique capable of measuring small surface elevation changes at large scales and with a high resolution. In vadose zone hydrology, it has been recognized for a long time that surface elevation changes due to swell and shrinkage of clayey soils can serve as

  9. Identifying influential data points in hydrological model calibration and their impact on streamflow predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, David; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth

    2015-04-01

    Highly influential data points are those that have a disproportionately large impact on model performance, parameters and predictions. However, in current hydrological modelling practice the relative influence of individual data points on hydrological model calibration is not commonly evaluated. This presentation illustrates and evaluates several influence diagnostics tools that hydrological modellers can use to assess the relative influence of data. The feasibility and importance of including influence detection diagnostics as a standard tool in hydrological model calibration is discussed. Two classes of influence diagnostics are evaluated: (1) computationally demanding numerical "case deletion" diagnostics; and (2) computationally efficient analytical diagnostics, based on Cook's distance. These diagnostics are compared against hydrologically orientated diagnostics that describe changes in the model parameters (measured through the Mahalanobis distance), performance (objective function displacement) and predictions (mean and maximum streamflow). These influence diagnostics are applied to two case studies: a stage/discharge rating curve model, and a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (GR4J). Removing a single data point from the calibration resulted in differences to mean flow predictions of up to 6% for the rating curve model, and differences to mean and maximum flow predictions of up to 10% and 17%, respectively, for the hydrological model. When using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in calibration, the computationally cheaper Cook's distance metrics produce similar results to the case-deletion metrics at a fraction of the computational cost. However, Cooks distance is adapted from linear regression with inherit assumptions on the data and is therefore less flexible than case deletion. Influential point detection diagnostics show great potential to improve current hydrological modelling practices by identifying highly influential data points. The findings of this

  10. Characteristics and Impact of Imperviousness From a GIS-based Hydrological Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moglen, G. E.; Kim, S.

    2005-12-01

    hydrological response is more sensitive to spatially distributed imperviousness or aggregate (lumped) imperviousness. The regressions between indicators of hydrological response and imperviousness-descriptors were evaluated by examining goodness-of-fit measures such as explained variance or relative standard error. The results show that imperviousness estimates using land use are better predictors of flow variability and thermal variability than imperviousness estimates using land cover. Also, this study reveals that flow variability is more sensitive to spatially distributed models than lumped models, while thermal variability is equally responsive to both models. The findings from this study can be further examined from a policy perspective with regard to policies that are based on a threshold concept for imperviousness impacts on the ecological and hydrological system.

  11. Prospects for large scale electricity storage in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krog Ekman, Claus; Jensen, Søren Højgaard

    2010-01-01

    In a future power systems with additional wind power capacity there will be an increased need for large scale power management as well as reliable balancing and reserve capabilities. Different technologies for large scale electricity storage provide solutions to the different challenges arising w...

  12. Large-scale matrix-handling subroutines 'ATLAS'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsunematsu, Toshihide; Takeda, Tatsuoki; Fujita, Keiichi; Matsuura, Toshihiko; Tahara, Nobuo

    1978-03-01

    Subroutine package ''ATLAS'' has been developed for handling large-scale matrices. The package is composed of four kinds of subroutines, i.e., basic arithmetic routines, routines for solving linear simultaneous equations and for solving general eigenvalue problems and utility routines. The subroutines are useful in large scale plasma-fluid simulations. (auth.)

  13. Large-scale Agricultural Land Acquisitions in West Africa | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project will examine large-scale agricultural land acquisitions in nine West African countries -Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Benin, Mali, Togo, Senegal, Niger, and Côte d'Ivoire. ... They will use the results to increase public awareness and knowledge about the consequences of large-scale land acquisitions.

  14. Large-scale synthesis of YSZ nanopowder by Pechini method

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    structure and chemical purity of 99⋅1% by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy on a large scale. Keywords. Sol–gel; yttria-stabilized zirconia; large scale; nanopowder; Pechini method. 1. Introduction. Zirconia has attracted the attention of many scientists because of its tremendous thermal, mechanical ...

  15. Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and

  16. Hydrological impact of high-density small dams in a humid catchment, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, W.; Lei, H.; Yang, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Jiulong River basin is a humid catchment with a drainage area of 14,741 km2; however, it has over 1000 hydropower stations within it. Such catchment with high-density small dams is scarce in China. Yet few is known about the impact of high-density small dams on streamflow changes. To what extent the large number of dams alters the hydrologic patterns is a fundamental scientific issue for water resources management, flood control, and aquatic ecological environment protection. Firstly, trend and change point analyses are applied to determine the characteristics of inter-annual streamflow. Based on the detected change point, the study period is divided into two study periods, the ``natural'' and ``disturbed'' periods. Then, a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) and the fixing-changing method are adopted to evaluate the relative contributions of climate variations and damming to the changes in streamflow at each temporal scale (i.e., from daily, monthly to annual). Based on the simulated natural streamflow, the impact of dam construction on hydrologic alteration and aquatic ecological environment will be evaluated. The hydrologic signatures that will be investigated include flood peak, seasonality of streamflow, and the inter-annual variability of streamflow. In particular, the impacts of damming on aquatic ecological environment will be investigated using eco-flow metrics and indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) which contains 33 individual streamflow statistics that are closely related to aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study expect to provide a reference for reservoir operation considering both ecological and economic benefits of such operations in the catchment with high-density dams.

  17. Optimal Wind Energy Integration in Large-Scale Electric Grids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albaijat, Mohammad H.

    profit for investors for renting their transmission capacity, and cheaper electricity for end users. We propose a hybrid method based on a heuristic and deterministic method to attain new transmission lines additions and increase transmission capacity. Renewable energy resources (RES) have zero operating cost, which makes them very attractive for generation companies and market participants. In addition, RES have zero carbon emission, which helps relieve the concerns of environmental impacts of electric generation resources' carbon emission. RES are wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and geothermal. By 2030, the expectation is that more than 30% of electricity in the U.S. will come from RES. One major contributor of RES generation will be from wind energy resources (WES). Furthermore, WES will be an important component of the future generation portfolio. However, the nature of WES is that it experiences a high intermittency and volatility. Because of the great expectation of high WES penetration and the nature of such resources, researchers focus on studying the effects of such resources on the electric grid operation and its adequacy from different aspects. Additionally, current market operations of electric grids add another complication to consider while integrating RES (e.g., specifically WES). Mandates by market rules and long-term analysis of renewable penetration in large-scale electric grid are also the focus of researchers in recent years. We advocate a method for high-wind resources penetration study on large-scale electric grid operations. PMU is a geographical positioning system (GPS) based device, which provides immediate and precise measurements of voltage angle in a high-voltage transmission system. PMUs can update the status of a transmission line and related measurements (e.g., voltage magnitude and voltage phase angle) more frequently. Every second, a PMU can provide 30 samples of measurements compared to traditional systems (e.g., supervisory control and

  18. Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Janicot

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

  19. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lauri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled the output of five general circulation models (GCMs that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For the hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact on hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia between the baseline (1982–1992 and projected time period (2032–2042 ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will

  20. Assessing Human Modifications to Floodplains using Large-Scale Hydrogeomorphic Floodplain Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, R. R.; Scheel, K.; Nardi, F.; Annis, A.

    2017-12-01

    Human modifications to floodplains for water resource and flood management purposes have significantly transformed river-floodplain connectivity dynamics in many watersheds. Bridges, levees, reservoirs, shifts in land use, and other hydraulic engineering works have altered flow patterns and caused changes in the timing and extent of floodplain inundation processes. These hydrogeomorphic changes have likely resulted in negative impacts to aquatic habitat and ecological processes. The availability of large-scale topographic datasets at high resolution provide an opportunity for detecting anthropogenic impacts by means of geomorphic mapping. We have developed and are implementing a methodology for comparing a hydrogeomorphic floodplain mapping technique to hydraulically-modeled floodplain boundaries to estimate floodplain loss due to human activities. Our hydrogeomorphic mapping methodology assumes that river valley morphology intrinsically includes information on flood-driven erosion and depositional phenomena. We use a digital elevation model-based algorithm to identify the floodplain as the area of the fluvial corridor laying below water reference levels, which are estimated using a simplified hydrologic model. Results from our hydrogeomorphic method are compared to hydraulically-derived flood zone maps and spatial datasets of levee protected-areas to explore where water management features, such as levees, have changed floodplain dynamics and landscape features. Parameters associated with commonly used F-index functions are quantified and analyzed to better understand how floodplain areas have been reduced within a basin. Preliminary results indicate that the hydrogeomorphic floodplain model is useful for quickly delineating floodplains at large watershed scales, but further analyses are needed to understand the caveats for using the model in determining floodplain loss due to levees. We plan to continue this work by exploring the spatial dependencies of the F

  1. Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G. [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change, Bangalore (India); Indian Institute of Science, Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India); Caldeira, Ken; Cao, Long; Ban-Weiss, George; Shin, Ho-Jeong [Carnegie Institution, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, CA (United States); Nemani, Rama [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States)

    2011-09-15

    Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO{sub 2} changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management ''geoengineering'' proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale. (orig.)

  2. Sustainability of small reservoirs and large scale water availability under current conditions and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, Martinus S.; de Vries, Marjella J.; van Oel, Pieter R.; Carlos de Araújo, José

    2011-01-01

    Semi-arid river basins often rely on reservoirs for water supply. Small reservoirs may impact on large-scale water availability both by enhancing availability in a distributed sense and by subtracting water for large downstream user communities, e.g. served by large reservoirs. Both of these impacts

  3. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

  4. Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang Zhou; Ying Ouyang; Yide Li; Zhijun Qiu; Matt Moran

    2017-01-01

    Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rain-fall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability tothese processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological pro-cesses at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain...

  5. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-01-01

    We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions

  6. Large Scale Obscuration and Related Climate Effects Workshop: Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zak, B.D.; Russell, N.A.; Church, H.W.; Einfeld, W.; Yoon, D.; Behl, Y.K. [eds.

    1994-05-01

    A Workshop on Large Scale Obsurcation and Related Climate Effects was held 29--31 January, 1992, in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The objectives of the workshop were: to determine through the use of expert judgement the current state of understanding of regional and global obscuration and related climate effects associated with nuclear weapons detonations; to estimate how large the uncertainties are in the parameters associated with these phenomena (given specific scenarios); to evaluate the impact of these uncertainties on obscuration predictions; and to develop an approach for the prioritization of further work on newly-available data sets to reduce the uncertainties. The workshop consisted of formal presentations by the 35 participants, and subsequent topical working sessions on: the source term; aerosol optical properties; atmospheric processes; and electro-optical systems performance and climatic impacts. Summaries of the conclusions reached in the working sessions are presented in the body of the report. Copies of the transparencies shown as part of each formal presentation are contained in the appendices (microfiche).

  7. Monte Carlo modelling of large scale NORM sources using MCNP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, J D

    2013-12-01

    The representative Monte Carlo modelling of large scale planar sources (for comparison to external environmental radiation fields) is undertaken using substantial diameter and thin profile planar cylindrical sources. The relative impact of source extent, soil thickness and sky-shine are investigated to guide decisions relating to representative geometries. In addition, the impact of source to detector distance on the nature of the detector response, for a range of source sizes, has been investigated. These investigations, using an MCNP based model, indicate a soil cylinder of greater than 20 m diameter and of no less than 50 cm depth/height, combined with a 20 m deep sky section above the soil cylinder, are needed to representatively model the semi-infinite plane of uniformly distributed NORM sources. Initial investigation of the effect of detector placement indicate that smaller source sizes may be used to achieve a representative response at shorter source to detector distances. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. On soft limits of large-scale structure correlation functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagunski, Laura

    2016-08-01

    background method to the case of a directional soft mode, being absorbed into a locally curved anisotropic background cosmology. The resulting non-perturbative power spectrum equation encodes the coupling to ultraviolet (UV) modes in two time-dependent coefficients. These can most generally be inferred from response functions to geometrical parameters, such as spatial curvature, in the locally curved anisotropic background cosmology. However, we can determine one coefficient by use of the angular-averaged bispectrum consistency condition together with the generalized VKPR proposal, and we show that the impact of the other one is subleading. Neglecting the latter in consequence, we confront the non-perturbative power spectrum equation against numerical simulations and find indeed a very good agreement within the expected error bars. Moreover, we argue that both coefficients and thus the non-perturbative power spectrum in the soft limit depend only weakly on UV modes deep in the non-linear regime. This non-perturbative finding allows us in turn to derive important implications for perturbative approaches to large-scale structure formation. First, it leads to the conclusion that the UV dependence of the power spectrum found in explicit computations within standard perturbation theory is an artifact. Second, it implies that in the Eulerian (Lagrangian) effective field theory (EFT) approach, where UV divergences are canceled by counter-terms, the renormalized leading-order coefficient(s) receive most contributions from modes close to the non-linear scale. The non-perturbative approach we developed can in principle be used to precisely infer the size of these renormalized leading-order EFT coefficient(s) by performing small-volume numerical simulations within an anisotropic 'separate universe' framework. Our results suggest that the importance of these coefficient(s) is a ∝10% effect at most.

  9. On soft limits of large-scale structure correlation functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sagunski, Laura

    2016-08-15

    background method to the case of a directional soft mode, being absorbed into a locally curved anisotropic background cosmology. The resulting non-perturbative power spectrum equation encodes the coupling to ultraviolet (UV) modes in two time-dependent coefficients. These can most generally be inferred from response functions to geometrical parameters, such as spatial curvature, in the locally curved anisotropic background cosmology. However, we can determine one coefficient by use of the angular-averaged bispectrum consistency condition together with the generalized VKPR proposal, and we show that the impact of the other one is subleading. Neglecting the latter in consequence, we confront the non-perturbative power spectrum equation against numerical simulations and find indeed a very good agreement within the expected error bars. Moreover, we argue that both coefficients and thus the non-perturbative power spectrum in the soft limit depend only weakly on UV modes deep in the non-linear regime. This non-perturbative finding allows us in turn to derive important implications for perturbative approaches to large-scale structure formation. First, it leads to the conclusion that the UV dependence of the power spectrum found in explicit computations within standard perturbation theory is an artifact. Second, it implies that in the Eulerian (Lagrangian) effective field theory (EFT) approach, where UV divergences are canceled by counter-terms, the renormalized leading-order coefficient(s) receive most contributions from modes close to the non-linear scale. The non-perturbative approach we developed can in principle be used to precisely infer the size of these renormalized leading-order EFT coefficient(s) by performing small-volume numerical simulations within an anisotropic 'separate universe' framework. Our results suggest that the importance of these coefficient(s) is a ∝10% effect at most.

  10. Stable large-scale CO2 storage in defiance of an energy system based on renewable energy - Modelling the impact of varying CO2 injection rates on reservoir behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannach, Andreas; Hauer, Rene; Martin, Streibel; Stienstra, Gerard; Kühn, Michael

    2015-04-01

    The IPCC Report 2014 strengthens the need for CO2 storage as part of CCS or BECCS to reach ambitious climate goals despite growing energy demand in the future. The further expansion of renewable energy sources is a second major pillar. As it is today in Germany the weather becomes the controlling factor for electricity production by fossil fuelled power plants which lead to significant fluctuations of CO2-emissions which can be traced in injection rates if the CO2 were captured and stored. To analyse the impact of such changing injection rates on a CO2 storage reservoir. two reservoir simulation models are applied: a. An (smaller) reservoir model approved by gas storage activities for decades, to investigate the dynamic effects in the early stage of storage filling (initial aquifer displacement). b. An anticline structure big enough to accommodate a total amount of ≥ 100 Mega tons CO2 to investigate the dynamic effects for the entire operational life time of the storage under particular consideration of very high filling levels (highest aquifer compression). Therefore a reservoir model was generated. The defined yearly injection rate schedule is based on a study performed on behalf of IZ Klima (DNV GL, 2014). According to this study the exclusive consideration of a pool of coal-fired power plants causes the most intensive dynamically changing CO2 emissions and hence accounts for variations of a system which includes industry driven CO2 production. Besides short-term changes (daily & weekly cycles) seasonal influences are also taken into account. Simulation runs cover a variation of injection points (well locations at the top vs. locations at the flank of the structure) and some other largely unknown reservoir parameters as aquifer size and aquifer mobility. Simulation of a 20 year storage operation is followed by a post-operational shut-in phase which covers approximately 500 years to assess possible effects of changing injection rates on the long-term reservoir

  11. Hydrological Appraisal of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Xijiang Basin, South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dehua Zhu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow is critical to understanding the changes to water resources and to improve water resource management. The use of hydrological models is a common practice to quantify and assess water resources in such situations. In this study, two hydrological models with different structures, e.g., a physically-based distributed model Liuxihe (LXH and a lumped conceptual model Xinanjiang (XAJ are employed to simulate the daily runoff in the Xijiang basin in South China, under historical (1964–2013 and future (2014–2099 climate conditions. The future climate series are downscaled from a global climate model (Beijing Climate Centre-Climate System Model, BCC-CSM version 1.1 by a high-resolution regional climate model under two representative concentration pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The hydrological responses to climate change via the two rainfall–runoff models with different mathematical structures are compared, in relation to the uncertainties in hydrology and meteorology. It is found that the two rainfall–runoff models successfully simulate the historical runoff for the Xijiang basin, with a daily runoff Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.80 for the LXH model and 0.89 for the XAJ model. The characteristics of high flow in the future are also analysed including their frequency (magnitude–return-period relationship. It shows that the distributed model could produce more streamflow and peak flow than the lumped model under the climate change scenarios. However the difference of the impact from the two climate scenarios is marginal on median monthly streamflow. The flood frequency analysis under climate change suggests that flood magnitudes in the future will be more severe than the historical floods with the same return period. Overall, the study reveals how uncertain it can be to quantify water resources with two different but well calibrated hydrological models.

  12. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  13. Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

    2018-05-01

    Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

  14. An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject to consider......The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present......-day period (1961-1990) are compared to an observational data set, with precipitation corrected for undercatch and wetting losses, to quantify systematic model errors. A delta change method is applied to cope with these biases. A question arises as to how variable the climate change signals are...

  15. An Novel Architecture of Large-scale Communication in IOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wubin; Deng, Su; Huang, Hongbin

    2018-03-01

    In recent years, many scholars have done a great deal of research on the development of Internet of Things and networked physical systems. However, few people have made the detailed visualization of the large-scale communications architecture in the IOT. In fact, the non-uniform technology between IPv6 and access points has led to a lack of broad principles of large-scale communications architectures. Therefore, this paper presents the Uni-IPv6 Access and Information Exchange Method (UAIEM), a new architecture and algorithm that addresses large-scale communications in the IOT.

  16. Large scale and big data processing and management

    CERN Document Server

    Sakr, Sherif

    2014-01-01

    Large Scale and Big Data: Processing and Management provides readers with a central source of reference on the data management techniques currently available for large-scale data processing. Presenting chapters written by leading researchers, academics, and practitioners, it addresses the fundamental challenges associated with Big Data processing tools and techniques across a range of computing environments.The book begins by discussing the basic concepts and tools of large-scale Big Data processing and cloud computing. It also provides an overview of different programming models and cloud-bas

  17. Comparison Between Overtopping Discharge in Small and Large Scale Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helgason, Einar; Burcharth, Hans F.

    2006-01-01

    The present paper presents overtopping measurements from small scale model test performed at the Haudraulic & Coastal Engineering Laboratory, Aalborg University, Denmark and large scale model tests performed at the Largde Wave Channel,Hannover, Germany. Comparison between results obtained from...... small and large scale model tests show no clear evidence of scale effects for overtopping above a threshold value. In the large scale model no overtopping was measured for waveheights below Hs = 0.5m as the water sunk into the voids between the stones on the crest. For low overtopping scale effects...

  18. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-10-01

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

  19. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China

    2017-11-03

    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  20. Research on large-scale wind farm modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Longfei; Zhang, Baoqun; Gong, Cheng; Jiao, Ran; Shi, Rui; Chi, Zhongjun; Ding, Yifeng

    2017-01-01

    Due to intermittent and adulatory properties of wind energy, when large-scale wind farm connected to the grid, it will have much impact on the power system, which is different from traditional power plants. Therefore it is necessary to establish an effective wind farm model to simulate and analyze the influence wind farms have on the grid as well as the transient characteristics of the wind turbines when the grid is at fault. However we must first establish an effective WTGs model. As the doubly-fed VSCF wind turbine has become the mainstream wind turbine model currently, this article first investigates the research progress of doubly-fed VSCF wind turbine, and then describes the detailed building process of the model. After that investigating the common wind farm modeling methods and pointing out the problems encountered. As WAMS is widely used in the power system, which makes online parameter identification of the wind farm model based on off-output characteristics of wind farm be possible, with a focus on interpretation of the new idea of identification-based modeling of large wind farms, which can be realized by two concrete methods.

  1. Episodic memory in aspects of large-scale brain networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Woorim; Chung, Chun Kee; Kim, June Sic

    2015-01-01

    Understanding human episodic memory in aspects of large-scale brain networks has become one of the central themes in neuroscience over the last decade. Traditionally, episodic memory was regarded as mostly relying on medial temporal lobe (MTL) structures. However, recent studies have suggested involvement of more widely distributed cortical network and the importance of its interactive roles in the memory process. Both direct and indirect neuro-modulations of the memory network have been tried in experimental treatments of memory disorders. In this review, we focus on the functional organization of the MTL and other neocortical areas in episodic memory. Task-related neuroimaging studies together with lesion studies suggested that specific sub-regions of the MTL are responsible for specific components of memory. However, recent studies have emphasized that connectivity within MTL structures and even their network dynamics with other cortical areas are essential in the memory process. Resting-state functional network studies also have revealed that memory function is subserved by not only the MTL system but also a distributed network, particularly the default-mode network (DMN). Furthermore, researchers have begun to investigate memory networks throughout the entire brain not restricted to the specific resting-state network (RSN). Altered patterns of functional connectivity (FC) among distributed brain regions were observed in patients with memory impairments. Recently, studies have shown that brain stimulation may impact memory through modulating functional networks, carrying future implications of a novel interventional therapy for memory impairment. PMID:26321939

  2. An integrated system for large scale scanning of nuclear emulsions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bozza, Cristiano, E-mail: kryss@sa.infn.it [University of Salerno and INFN, via Ponte Don Melillo, Fisciano 84084 (Italy); D’Ambrosio, Nicola [Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, S.S. 17 BIS km 18.910, Assergi (AQ) 67010 (Italy); De Lellis, Giovanni [University of Napoli and INFN, Complesso Universitario di Monte Sant' Angelo, via Cintia Ed. G, Napoli 80126 (Italy); De Serio, Marilisa [University of Bari and INFN, via E. Orabona 4, Bari 70125 (Italy); Di Capua, Francesco [INFN Napoli, Complesso Universitario di Monte Sant' Angelo, via Cintia Ed. G, Napoli 80126 (Italy); Di Crescenzo, Antonia [University of Napoli and INFN, Complesso Universitario di Monte Sant' Angelo, via Cintia Ed. G, Napoli 80126 (Italy); Di Ferdinando, Donato [INFN Bologna, viale B. Pichat 6/2, Bologna 40127 (Italy); Di Marco, Natalia [Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, S.S. 17 BIS km 18.910, Assergi (AQ) 67010 (Italy); Esposito, Luigi Salvatore [Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, now at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Fini, Rosa Anna [INFN Bari, via E. Orabona 4, Bari 70125 (Italy); Giacomelli, Giorgio [University of Bologna and INFN, viale B. Pichat 6/2, Bologna 40127 (Italy); Grella, Giuseppe [University of Salerno and INFN, via Ponte Don Melillo, Fisciano 84084 (Italy); Ieva, Michela [University of Bari and INFN, via E. Orabona 4, Bari 70125 (Italy); Kose, Umut [INFN Padova, via Marzolo 8, Padova (PD) 35131 (Italy); Longhin, Andrea; Mauri, Nicoletta [INFN Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, via E. Fermi 40, Frascati (RM) 00044 (Italy); Medinaceli, Eduardo [University of Padova and INFN, via Marzolo 8, Padova (PD) 35131 (Italy); Monacelli, Piero [University of L' Aquila and INFN, via Vetoio Loc. Coppito, L' Aquila (AQ) 67100 (Italy); Muciaccia, Maria Teresa; Pastore, Alessandra [University of Bari and INFN, via E. Orabona 4, Bari 70125 (Italy); and others

    2013-03-01

    The European Scanning System, developed to analyse nuclear emulsions at high speed, has been completed with the development of a high level software infrastructure to automate and support large-scale emulsion scanning. In one year, an average installation is capable of performing data-taking and online analysis on a total surface ranging from few m{sup 2} to tens of m{sup 2}, acquiring many billions of tracks, corresponding to several TB. This paper focuses on the procedures that have been implemented and on their impact on physics measurements. The system proved robust, reliable, fault-tolerant and user-friendly, and seldom needs assistance. A dedicated relational Data Base system is the backbone of the whole infrastructure, storing data themselves and not only catalogues of data files, as in common practice, being a unique case in high-energy physics DAQ systems. The logical organisation of the system is described and a summary is given of the physics measurement that are readily available by automated processing.

  3. Assessing large-scale wildlife responses to human infrastructure development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Aurora; Jaeger, Jochen A G; Alonso, Juan Carlos

    2016-07-26

    Habitat loss and deterioration represent the main threats to wildlife species, and are closely linked to the expansion of roads and human settlements. Unfortunately, large-scale effects of these structures remain generally overlooked. Here, we analyzed the European transportation infrastructure network and found that 50% of the continent is within 1.5 km of transportation infrastructure. We present a method for assessing the impacts from infrastructure on wildlife, based on functional response curves describing density reductions in birds and mammals (e.g., road-effect zones), and apply it to Spain as a case study. The imprint of infrastructure extends over most of the country (55.5% in the case of birds and 97.9% for mammals), with moderate declines predicted for birds (22.6% of individuals) and severe declines predicted for mammals (46.6%). Despite certain limitations, we suggest the approach proposed is widely applicable to the evaluation of effects of planned infrastructure developments under multiple scenarios, and propose an internationally coordinated strategy to update and improve it in the future.

  4. An integrated system for large scale scanning of nuclear emulsions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozza, Cristiano; D’Ambrosio, Nicola; De Lellis, Giovanni; De Serio, Marilisa; Di Capua, Francesco; Di Crescenzo, Antonia; Di Ferdinando, Donato; Di Marco, Natalia; Esposito, Luigi Salvatore; Fini, Rosa Anna; Giacomelli, Giorgio; Grella, Giuseppe; Ieva, Michela; Kose, Umut; Longhin, Andrea; Mauri, Nicoletta; Medinaceli, Eduardo; Monacelli, Piero; Muciaccia, Maria Teresa; Pastore, Alessandra

    2013-01-01

    The European Scanning System, developed to analyse nuclear emulsions at high speed, has been completed with the development of a high level software infrastructure to automate and support large-scale emulsion scanning. In one year, an average installation is capable of performing data-taking and online analysis on a total surface ranging from few m 2 to tens of m 2 , acquiring many billions of tracks, corresponding to several TB. This paper focuses on the procedures that have been implemented and on their impact on physics measurements. The system proved robust, reliable, fault-tolerant and user-friendly, and seldom needs assistance. A dedicated relational Data Base system is the backbone of the whole infrastructure, storing data themselves and not only catalogues of data files, as in common practice, being a unique case in high-energy physics DAQ systems. The logical organisation of the system is described and a summary is given of the physics measurement that are readily available by automated processing

  5. Numerically modelling the large scale coronal magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panja, Mayukh; Nandi, Dibyendu

    2016-07-01

    The solar corona spews out vast amounts of magnetized plasma into the heliosphere which has a direct impact on the Earth's magnetosphere. Thus it is important that we develop an understanding of the dynamics of the solar corona. With our present technology it has not been possible to generate 3D magnetic maps of the solar corona; this warrants the use of numerical simulations to study the coronal magnetic field. A very popular method of doing this, is to extrapolate the photospheric magnetic field using NLFF or PFSS codes. However the extrapolations at different time intervals are completely independent of each other and do not capture the temporal evolution of magnetic fields. On the other hand full MHD simulations of the global coronal field, apart from being computationally very expensive would be physically less transparent, owing to the large number of free parameters that are typically used in such codes. This brings us to the Magneto-frictional model which is relatively simpler and computationally more economic. We have developed a Magnetofrictional Model, in 3D spherical polar co-ordinates to study the large scale global coronal field. Here we present studies of changing connectivities between active regions, in response to photospheric motions.

  6. Episodic memory in aspects of large-scale brain networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woorim eJeong

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Understanding human episodic memory in aspects of large-scale brain networks has become one of the central themes in neuroscience over the last decade. Traditionally, episodic memory was regarded as mostly relying on medial temporal lobe (MTL structures. However, recent studies have suggested involvement of more widely distributed cortical network and the importance of its interactive roles in the memory process. Both direct and indirect neuro-modulations of the memory network have been tried in experimental treatments of memory disorders. In this review, we focus on the functional organization of the MTL and other neocortical areas in episodic memory. Task-related neuroimaging studies together with lesion studies suggested that specific sub-regions of the MTL are responsible for specific components of memory. However, recent studies have emphasized that connectivity within MTL structures and even their network dynamics with other cortical areas are essential in the memory process. Resting-state functional network studies also have revealed that memory function is subserved by not only the MTL system but also a distributed network, particularly the default-mode network. Furthermore, researchers have begun to investigate memory networks throughout the entire brain not restricted to the specific resting-state network. Altered patterns of functional connectivity among distributed brain regions were observed in patients with memory impairments. Recently, studies have shown that brain stimulation may impact memory through modulating functional networks, carrying future implications of a novel interventional therapy for memory impairment.

  7. Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. C. Bosmans

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

  8. Resolute large scale mining company contribution to health services of

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Resolute large scale mining company contribution to health services of Lusu ... in terms of socio economic, health, education, employment, safe drinking water, ... The data were analyzed using Scientific Package for Social Science (SPSS).

  9. Personalized Opportunistic Computing for CMS at Large Scale

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    **Douglas Thain** is an Associate Professor of Computer Science and Engineering at the University of Notre Dame, where he designs large scale distributed computing systems to power the needs of advanced science and...

  10. Large-scale linear programs in planning and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    Large-scale linear programs are at the core of many traffic-related optimization problems in both planning and prediction. Moreover, many of these involve significant uncertainty, and hence are modeled using either chance constraints, or robust optim...

  11. Bottom-Up Accountability Initiatives and Large-Scale Land ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... Security can help increase accountability for large-scale land acquisitions in ... to build decent economic livelihoods and participate meaningfully in decisions ... its 2017 call for proposals to establish Cyber Policy Centres in the Global South.

  12. Amplification of large-scale magnetic field in nonhelical magnetohydrodynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Kumar, Rohit

    2017-08-11

    It is typically assumed that the kinetic and magnetic helicities play a crucial role in the growth of large-scale dynamo. In this paper, we demonstrate that helicity is not essential for the amplification of large-scale magnetic field. For this purpose, we perform nonhelical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, and show that the large-scale magnetic field can grow in nonhelical MHD when random external forcing is employed at scale 1/10 the box size. The energy fluxes and shell-to-shell transfer rates computed using the numerical data show that the large-scale magnetic energy grows due to the energy transfers from the velocity field at the forcing scales.

  13. Needs, opportunities, and options for large scale systems research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, G.L.

    1984-10-01

    The Office of Energy Research was recently asked to perform a study of Large Scale Systems in order to facilitate the development of a true large systems theory. It was decided to ask experts in the fields of electrical engineering, chemical engineering and manufacturing/operations research for their ideas concerning large scale systems research. The author was asked to distribute a questionnaire among these experts to find out their opinions concerning recent accomplishments and future research directions in large scale systems research. He was also requested to convene a conference which included three experts in each area as panel members to discuss the general area of large scale systems research. The conference was held on March 26--27, 1984 in Pittsburgh with nine panel members, and 15 other attendees. The present report is a summary of the ideas presented and the recommendations proposed by the attendees.

  14. Large-Scale 3D Printing: The Way Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassmi, Hamad Al; Najjar, Fady Al; Ismail Mourad, Abdel-Hamid

    2018-03-01

    Research on small-scale 3D printing has rapidly evolved, where numerous industrial products have been tested and successfully applied. Nonetheless, research on large-scale 3D printing, directed to large-scale applications such as construction and automotive manufacturing, yet demands a great a great deal of efforts. Large-scale 3D printing is considered an interdisciplinary topic and requires establishing a blended knowledge base from numerous research fields including structural engineering, materials science, mechatronics, software engineering, artificial intelligence and architectural engineering. This review article summarizes key topics of relevance to new research trends on large-scale 3D printing, particularly pertaining (1) technological solutions of additive construction (i.e. the 3D printers themselves), (2) materials science challenges, and (3) new design opportunities.

  15. Perturbations in the initial soil moisture conditions: Impacts on hydrologic simulation in a large river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niroula, Sundar; Halder, Subhadeep; Ghosh, Subimal

    2018-06-01

    Real time hydrologic forecasting requires near accurate initial condition of soil moisture; however, continuous monitoring of soil moisture is not operational in many regions, such as, in Ganga basin, extended in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. Here, we examine the impacts of perturbation/error in the initial soil moisture conditions on simulated soil moisture and streamflow in Ganga basin and its propagation, during the summer monsoon season (June to September). This provides information regarding the required minimum duration of model simulation for attaining the model stability. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity model for hydrological simulations after validation. Multiple hydrologic simulations are performed, each of 21 days, initialized on every 5th day of the monsoon season for deficit, surplus and normal monsoon years. Each of these simulations is performed with the initial soil moisture condition obtained from long term runs along with positive and negative perturbations. The time required for the convergence of initial errors is obtained for all the cases. We find a quick convergence for the year with high rainfall as well as for the wet spells within a season. We further find high spatial variations in the time required for convergence; the region with high precipitation such as Lower Ganga basin attains convergence at a faster rate. Furthermore, deeper soil layers need more time for convergence. Our analysis is the first attempt on understanding the sensitivity of hydrological simulations of Ganga basin on initial soil moisture conditions. The results obtained here may be useful in understanding the spin-up requirements for operational hydrologic forecasts.

  16. Sizing and scaling requirements of a large-scale physical model for code validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khaleel, R.; Legore, T.

    1990-01-01

    Model validation is an important consideration in application of a code for performance assessment and therefore in assessing the long-term behavior of the engineered and natural barriers of a geologic repository. Scaling considerations relevant to porous media flow are reviewed. An analysis approach is presented for determining the sizing requirements of a large-scale, hydrology physical model. The physical model will be used to validate performance assessment codes that evaluate the long-term behavior of the repository isolation system. Numerical simulation results for sizing requirements are presented for a porous medium model in which the media properties are spatially uncorrelated

  17. No Large Scale Curvature Perturbations during Waterfall of Hybrid Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Abolhasani, Ali Akbar; Firouzjahi, Hassan

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the possibility of generating large scale curvature perturbations induced from the entropic perturbations during the waterfall phase transition of standard hybrid inflation model is studied. We show that whether or not appreciable amounts of large scale curvature perturbations are produced during the waterfall phase transition depend crucially on the competition between the classical and the quantum mechanical back-reactions to terminate inflation. If one considers only the clas...

  18. Bayesian hierarchical model for large-scale covariance matrix estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dongxiao; Hero, Alfred O

    2007-12-01

    Many bioinformatics problems implicitly depend on estimating large-scale covariance matrix. The traditional approaches tend to give rise to high variance and low accuracy due to "overfitting." We cast the large-scale covariance matrix estimation problem into the Bayesian hierarchical model framework, and introduce dependency between covariance parameters. We demonstrate the advantages of our approaches over the traditional approaches using simulations and OMICS data analysis.

  19. Benefits of transactive memory systems in large-scale development

    OpenAIRE

    Aivars, Sablis

    2016-01-01

    Context. Large-scale software development projects are those consisting of a large number of teams, maybe even spread across multiple locations, and working on large and complex software tasks. That means that neither a team member individually nor an entire team holds all the knowledge about the software being developed and teams have to communicate and coordinate their knowledge. Therefore, teams and team members in large-scale software development projects must acquire and manage expertise...

  20. Capabilities of the Large-Scale Sediment Transport Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    pump flow meters, sediment trap weigh tanks , and beach profiling lidar. A detailed discussion of the original LSTF features and capabilities can be...ERDC/CHL CHETN-I-88 April 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Capabilities of the Large-Scale Sediment Transport...describes the Large-Scale Sediment Transport Facility (LSTF) and recent upgrades to the measurement systems. The purpose of these upgrades was to increase

  1. Comparative Analysis of Different Protocols to Manage Large Scale Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Anil Rao Pimplapure; Dr Jayant Dubey; Prashant Sen

    2013-01-01

    In recent year the numbers, complexity and size is increased in Large Scale Network. The best example of Large Scale Network is Internet, and recently once are Data-centers in Cloud Environment. In this process, involvement of several management tasks such as traffic monitoring, security and performance optimization is big task for Network Administrator. This research reports study the different protocols i.e. conventional protocols like Simple Network Management Protocol and newly Gossip bas...

  2. Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

    2012-01-01

    The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functio...

  3. Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, Jens C.; Sonnenborg, Torben; Butts, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts with particular focus on groundwater aspects for a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. We find results similar...... to surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we find uncertainties related to geological conceptualisation and hydrological model discretisation to be dominating for projections of well field...... climate-hydrology models....

  4. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall ...

  5. Impact of Large-Scale Assessment on Mexico's Education Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Rizo, Felipe; Silva-Guerrero, Juana E.

    2016-01-01

    After an introduction that briefly describes the two studies on which this article is based, we provide background information on Mexico's education system and the sociopolitical context of the country, and we explain relevant issues of this context for education, arising from the transition from an authoritarian to a democratic political system,…

  6. Impacts of Biofuel-Induced Agricultural Land Use Changes on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Z.; Zheng, H.

    2015-12-01

    The US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 has contributed to widespread changes in agricultural land uses. The impact of these land use changes on regional water resources could also be significant. Agricultural land use changes were evaluated for the Red River of the North Basin (RRNB), an international river basin shared by the US and Canada. The influence of the land use changes on spring snowmelt flooding and downstream water quality was also assessed using watershed modeling. The planting areas for corn and soybean in the basin increased by 62% and 18%, while those for spring wheat, forest, and pasture decreased by 30%, 18%, and 50%, from 2006 to 2013. Although the magnitude of spring snowmelt peak flows in the Red River did not change from pre-EISA to post-EISA, our uncertainty analysis of the normalized hydrographs revealed that the downstream streamflows had a greater variability under the post-EISA land use scenario, which may lead to greater uncertainty in predicting spring snowmelt floods in the Red River. Hydrological simulation also showed that the sediment and nutrient loads at the basin's outlet in the US and Canada border increased under the post-EISA land use scenario, on average sediment increasing by 2.6%, TP by 14.1%, nitrate nitrogen by 5.9%, and TN by 9.1%. Potential impacts of the future biofuel crop scenarios on watershed hydrology and water quality in the RRNB were also simulated through integrated economic-hydrologic modeling.

  7. Analysis of hydrological response to land use changes based on Low Impact Development—a case study on the southern area of Fangshan National Geopark in Nanjing city, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Fu, D., Sr.

    2016-12-01

    The hydrological response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LUCC) is the most active field in the international hydrological science research, and it is also a particular concern in the process of Chinese urban construction and renewal, many studies have shown that large-scale land use change is an important factor leading to the regional climate and hydrological cycle changes. Therefore, International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and International Programme of Biodiversity Science (DIVERSITAS) program take land use change as one core program. The change of regional vegetation ecosystem caused by land use change, in turn, has a very significant impact on the regional hydrological cycle. Currently the influence of hydrological processes attributed correlated with land-use type were not fully considered in urban LUCC, the hydrological effect on urban-scale LUCC has just started. Since 2015, Chinese government began to implement "Sponge City" construction, however, the sponge city construction often takes the water resources management as the target, and mainly focuses on the rational allocation of urban water resources in conjunction with ignoring the response of LUCC on the water system. The hydrological response on LUCC need to use the scenario design method to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of the hydrological change on LUCC. According to the control rate of the runoff volume and land information, the coverage rate of sponge facilities determined before planning, such as bioretention, permeable pavement and greening roof, are adjusted and then are checked on the basis of storage volume, the coverage rate of the sponge facilities that can accommodate the total runoff volume are put forward. This research addresses the hydrological response changes on the land use before and after the use of LID using the scenario design method

  8. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Éric; Gailhard, Joël

    2018-05-01

    This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne.

  9. Hydrologic Impact of Harvesting and Road Construction in Mountainous Regime of Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, E.; Hubbart, J.; Gravelle, J.; Link, T.

    2006-12-01

    The impact of forest management practices on hydrologic flow regimes have been debated for years. Vegetation removal and forest road construction are two anthropogenic disturbances that may affect watershed hydrology. The Mica Creek Experimental Watershed (MCEW), ID was initiated by Potlatch Corporation in 1990 to evaluate how contemporary forest harvest practices may impact water flows, quality and aquatic health. The study was recently expanded to identify the specific mechanisms producing the observed flow responses. The extensive and long term monitoring program in MCEW enables the validation of simulated internal watershed processes, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of models to simulate the hydrologic effects of land cover change. The spatially-distributed, physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), will be used to deconvolve the effects of canopy change, forest road construction, and climate variability in MCEW. First, the model performance will be assessed for pre-harvest, post-road, and post-harvest experimental periods. The model will then be used to explore how the flow regime would be expected to differ under historical, alternative management and future scenarios. A retrospective study of fully-harvested and increased forest road density (as opposed to current road density of 3 to 5 percent by surface area) will be compared with contemporary management practices. The impact of harvest patterns on sub-catchment flows will be assessed to understand the degree to which flow synchronization or desynchronization on confluent streams might affect cumulative downstream flow regime. Future scenarios will assess the potential impact of climatic variability that is expected to raise the transient snow zone and increase the wintertime rain to snow ratios in the Pacific Northwest. Variables such as harvest patterns and climate variation will be manipulated to project whether the hydrologic effects of land cover and

  10. Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

  11. Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

  12. Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

    2017-01-01

    The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0–20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. - Causation between the

  13. Evaluating the Impacts of Urbanization on Hydrological Processes and Water Resources by Comparing Two Neighboring Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, M.; Zhao, G.; Gao, H.

    2017-12-01

    Texas, the fastest growing state in the US, has seen significant land cover/land use change due to urbanization over the past decades. With most of the region being arid/semi-arid, water issues are unprecedentedly pressing. Among the 15 major river basins, two adjacent river basins located in south-central Texas—the San Antonio River Basin (SARB) and the Guadalupe River Basin (GRB)—form an ideal testbed for evaluating the impacts of urbanization on both hydrological processes and water resources. These two basins are similar in size and in climate pattern, but differ in terms of urbanization progress. In SARB, where the city of San Antonio is located, the impervious area has increased from 0.6% (1929) to 7.8% (2011). In contrast, there is little land cover change in the GRB. With regard to the underground components, both basins intersect with the Edward Aquifer (more than 15% of basin area in both cases). The Edward Aquifer acts as one of the major municipal water supplies for San Antonio, and as the water source for local agricultural uses (and for the surrounding habitat). This aquifer has the characteristic of being highly sensitive to changes in surface water conditions, like the descending trend of the underground water table due to over exploitation. In this study, a distributed hydrologic model—DHSVM (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model)—is used to compare the hydrologic characteristics (and their impacts on water resources) over the two basins. With a 200m spatial resolution, the model is calibrated and validated during the historical period over both basins. The objectives of the comparisons are two-fold: First, the urbanization effects on peak flows are evaluated for selected extreme rainfall events; Second, the Edward Aquifer recharge rate from surface water under flood and/or drought conditions within the two basins is analyzed. Furthermore, future urbanization scenarios are tested to provide information relevant to decision making.

  14. Evaluation of Large-Scale Public-Sector Reforms: A Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breidahl, Karen N.; Gjelstrup, Gunnar; Hansen, Hanne Foss; Hansen, Morten Balle

    2017-01-01

    Research on the evaluation of large-scale public-sector reforms is rare. This article sets out to fill that gap in the evaluation literature and argues that it is of vital importance since the impact of such reforms is considerable and they change the context in which evaluations of other and more delimited policy areas take place. In our…

  15. Using Practitioner Inquiry within and against Large-Scale Educational Reform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hines, Mary Beth; Conner-Zachocki, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    This research study examines the impact of teacher research on participants in a large-scale educational reform initiative in the United States, No Child Left Behind, and its strand for reading teachers, Reading First. Reading First supported professional development for teachers in order to increase student scores on standardized tests. The…

  16. Can Large Scale Land Acquisition for Agro-Development in Indonesia be Managed Sustainably?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Obidzinski, K.; Takahashi, I.; Dermawan, A.; Komarudin, H.; Andrianto, A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the impacts of large scale land acquisition for agro-development by analyzing the Merauke Integrated Food and Energy Estate (MIFEE) in Indonesia. It also examines the potential for MIFEE to meet sustainability requirements under RSPO, ISPO, and FSC. The plantation development

  17. Estimating the Effectiveness of Special Education Using Large-Scale Assessment Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Katherine Anne

    2009-01-01

    The inclusion of students with disabilities in large scale assessment and accountability programs has provided new opportunities to examine the impact of special education services on student achievement. Hanushek, Kain, and Rivkin (1998, 2002) evaluated the effectiveness of special education programs by examining students' gains on a large-scale…

  18. Integrating weather and geotechnical monitoring data for assessing the stability of large scale surface mining operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steiakakis Chrysanthos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The geotechnical challenges for safe slope design in large scale surface mining operations are enormous. Sometimes one degree of slope inclination can significantly reduce the overburden to ore ratio and therefore dramatically improve the economics of the operation, while large scale slope failures may have a significant impact on human lives. Furthermore, adverse weather conditions, such as high precipitation rates, may unfavorably affect the already delicate balance between operations and safety. Geotechnical, weather and production parameters should be systematically monitored and evaluated in order to safely operate such pits. Appropriate data management, processing and storage are critical to ensure timely and informed decisions.

  19. Phylogenetic distribution of large-scale genome patchiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hackenberg Michael

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The phylogenetic distribution of large-scale genome structure (i.e. mosaic compositional patchiness has been explored mainly by analytical ultracentrifugation of bulk DNA. However, with the availability of large, good-quality chromosome sequences, and the recently developed computational methods to directly analyze patchiness on the genome sequence, an evolutionary comparative analysis can be carried out at the sequence level. Results The local variations in the scaling exponent of the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis are used here to analyze large-scale genome structure and directly uncover the characteristic scales present in genome sequences. Furthermore, through shuffling experiments of selected genome regions, computationally-identified, isochore-like regions were identified as the biological source for the uncovered large-scale genome structure. The phylogenetic distribution of short- and large-scale patchiness was determined in the best-sequenced genome assemblies from eleven eukaryotic genomes: mammals (Homo sapiens, Pan troglodytes, Mus musculus, Rattus norvegicus, and Canis familiaris, birds (Gallus gallus, fishes (Danio rerio, invertebrates (Drosophila melanogaster and Caenorhabditis elegans, plants (Arabidopsis thaliana and yeasts (Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We found large-scale patchiness of genome structure, associated with in silico determined, isochore-like regions, throughout this wide phylogenetic range. Conclusion Large-scale genome structure is detected by directly analyzing DNA sequences in a wide range of eukaryotic chromosome sequences, from human to yeast. In all these genomes, large-scale patchiness can be associated with the isochore-like regions, as directly detected in silico at the sequence level.

  20. Imprint of non-linear effects on HI intensity mapping on large scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Umeh, Obinna, E-mail: umeobinna@gmail.com [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of the Western Cape, Cape Town 7535 (South Africa)

    2017-06-01

    Intensity mapping of the HI brightness temperature provides a unique way of tracing large-scale structures of the Universe up to the largest possible scales. This is achieved by using a low angular resolution radio telescopes to detect emission line from cosmic neutral Hydrogen in the post-reionization Universe. We use general relativistic perturbation theory techniques to derive for the first time the full expression for the HI brightness temperature up to third order in perturbation theory without making any plane-parallel approximation. We use this result and the renormalization prescription for biased tracers to study the impact of nonlinear effects on the power spectrum of HI brightness temperature both in real and redshift space. We show how mode coupling at nonlinear order due to nonlinear bias parameters and redshift space distortion terms modulate the power spectrum on large scales. The large scale modulation may be understood to be due to the effective bias parameter and effective shot noise.