WorldWideScience

Sample records for large uncertainties remain

  1. Calibration of C-14 dates: some remaining uncertainties and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burleigh, R.

    1975-01-01

    A brief review is presented of the interpretation of radiocarbon dates in terms of calendar years. An outline is given of the factors that make such correlations necessary and of the work that has so far been done to make them possible. The calibration of the C-14 timescale very largely depends at present on the bristlecone pine chronology, but it is clear that many detailed uncertainties still remain. These are discussed. (U.K.)

  2. Large-uncertainty intelligent states for angular momentum and angle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goette, Joerg B; Zambrini, Roberta; Franke-Arnold, Sonja; Barnett, Stephen M

    2005-01-01

    The equality in the uncertainty principle for linear momentum and position is obtained for states which also minimize the uncertainty product. However, in the uncertainty relation for angular momentum and angular position both sides of the inequality are state dependent and therefore the intelligent states, which satisfy the equality, do not necessarily give a minimum for the uncertainty product. In this paper, we highlight the difference between intelligent states and minimum uncertainty states by investigating a class of intelligent states which obey the equality in the angular uncertainty relation while having an arbitrarily large uncertainty product. To develop an understanding for the uncertainties of angle and angular momentum for the large-uncertainty intelligent states we compare exact solutions with analytical approximations in two limiting cases

  3. Remaining uncertainties in predicting long-term performance of nuclear waste glass from experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grambow, B.

    1994-01-01

    The current knowledge on the glass dissolution mechanism and the representation of glass dissolution concepts within overall repository performance assessment models are briefly summarized and uncertainties related to mechanism, radionuclide chemistry and parameters are discussed. Understanding of the major glass dissolution processes has been significantly increased in recent years. Long-term glass stability is related to the long-term maintenance of silica saturated conditions. The behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass has not been sufficiently and results do no yet allow meaningful predictions. Conserving long-term predictions of glass matrix dissolution as upper limit for radionuclide release can be made with sufficient confidence, however these estimations generally result in a situation where the barrier function of the glass is masked by the efficiency of the geologic barrier. Realistic long-term predictions may show that the borosilicate waste glass contributes to overall repository safety to a much larger extent than indicated by overconservatism. Today realistic predictions remain highly uncertain and much more research work is necessary. In particular, the long-term rate under silica saturated conditions needs to be understood and the behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass deserves more systematic investigations

  4. Value of Uncertainty: The Lost Opportunities in Large Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnar Johansen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty management theory has become well established over the last 20–30 years. However, the authors suggest that it does not fully address why opportunities often remain unexploited. Empirical studies show a stronger focus on mitigating risks than exploiting opportunities. This paper therefore addresses why so few opportunities are explored in large projects. The theory claims that risks and opportunities should be equally managed in the same process. In two surveys, conducted in six (private and public companies over a four-year period, project managers stated that uncertainty management is about managing risk and opportunities. However, two case studies from 12 projects from the same companies revealed that all of them had their main focus on risks, and most of the opportunities were left unexploited. We have developed a theoretical explanation model to shed light on this phenomena. The concept is a reflection based on findings from our empirical data up against current project management, uncertainty, risk and stakeholder literature. Our model shows that the threshold for pursuing a potential opportunity is high. If a potential opportunity should be considered, it must be extremely interesting, since it may require contract changes, and the project must abandon an earlier-accepted best solution.

  5. Space Acquisitions: Some Programs Have Overcome Past Problems, but Challenges and Uncertainty Remain for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-29

    24, 2013. Launch Services New Entrant Certification Guide. GAO-13-317R. Washington, D.C.: February 7, 2013. Satellite Control: Long-Term Planning...catches up to the functionality of the satellites. • While new missile warning satellites are now on orbit after years of delays and significant cost...growing threats to space systems have led DOD to consider alternatives such as disaggregating—or breaking up—large satellites into multiple, smaller

  6. Alignment measurements uncertainties for large assemblies using probabilistic analysis techniques

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2090816; Almond, Heather

    Big science and ambitious industrial projects continually push forward with technical requirements beyond the grasp of conventional engineering techniques. Example of those are ultra-high precision requirements in the field of celestial telescopes, particle accelerators and aerospace industry. Such extreme requirements are limited largely by the capability of the metrology used, namely, it’s uncertainty in relation to the alignment tolerance required. The current work was initiated as part of Maria Curie European research project held at CERN, Geneva aiming to answer those challenges as related to future accelerators requiring alignment of 2 m large assemblies to tolerances in the 10 µm range. The thesis has found several gaps in current knowledge limiting such capability. Among those was the lack of application of state of the art uncertainty propagation methods in alignment measurements metrology. Another major limiting factor found was the lack of uncertainty statements in the thermal errors compensatio...

  7. Sampling based uncertainty analysis of 10% hot leg break LOCA in large scale test facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sengupta, Samiran; Kraina, V.; Dubey, S. K.; Rao, R. S.; Gupta, S. K.

    2010-01-01

    Sampling based uncertainty analysis was carried out to quantify uncertainty in predictions of best estimate code RELAP5/MOD3.2 for a thermal hydraulic test (10% hot leg break LOCA) performed in the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF) as a part of an IAEA coordinated research project. The nodalisation of the test facility was qualified for both steady state and transient level by systematically applying the procedures led by uncertainty methodology based on accuracy extrapolation (UMAE); uncertainty analysis was carried out using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method to evaluate uncertainty for ten input parameters. Sixteen output parameters were selected for uncertainty evaluation and uncertainty band between 5 th and 95 th percentile of the output parameters were evaluated. It was observed that the uncertainty band for the primary pressure during two phase blowdown is larger than that of the remaining period. Similarly, a larger uncertainty band is observed relating to accumulator injection flow during reflood phase. Importance analysis was also carried out and standard rank regression coefficients were computed to quantify the effect of each individual input parameter on output parameters. It was observed that the break discharge coefficient is the most important uncertain parameter relating to the prediction of all the primary side parameters and that the steam generator (SG) relief pressure setting is the most important parameter in predicting the SG secondary pressure

  8. Risk Management and Uncertainty in Large Complex Public Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neerup Themsen, Tim; Harty, Chris; Tryggestad, Kjell

    Governmental actors worldwide are promoting risk management as a rational approach to man-age uncertainty and improve the abilities to deliver large complex projects according to budget, time plans, and pre-set project specifications: But what do we know about the effects of risk management...... on the abilities to meet such objectives? Using Callon’s (1998) twin notions of framing and overflowing we examine the implementation of risk management within the Dan-ish public sector and the effects this generated for the management of two large complex pro-jects. We show how the rational framing of risk...... management have generated unexpected costly outcomes such as: the undermining of the longer-term value and societal relevance of the built asset, the negligence of the wider range of uncertainties emerging during project processes, and constraining forms of knowledge. We also show how expert accountants play...

  9. Uncertainty of measurement for large product verification: evaluation of large aero gas turbine engine datums

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muelaner, J E; Wang, Z; Keogh, P S; Brownell, J; Fisher, D

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the uncertainty of dimensional measurements for large products such as aircraft, spacecraft and wind turbines is fundamental to improving efficiency in these products. Much work has been done to ascertain the uncertainty associated with the main types of instruments used, based on laser tracking and photogrammetry, and the propagation of this uncertainty through networked measurements. Unfortunately this is not sufficient to understand the combined uncertainty of industrial measurements, which include secondary tooling and datum structures used to locate the coordinate frame. This paper presents for the first time a complete evaluation of the uncertainty of large scale industrial measurement processes. Generic analysis and design rules are proven through uncertainty evaluation and optimization for the measurement of a large aero gas turbine engine. This shows how the instrument uncertainty can be considered to be negligible. Before optimization the dominant source of uncertainty was the tooling design, after optimization the dominant source was thermal expansion of the engine; meaning that no further improvement can be made without measurement in a temperature controlled environment. These results will have a significant impact on the ability of aircraft and wind turbines to improve efficiency and therefore reduce carbon emissions, as well as the improved reliability of these products. (paper)

  10. Large break LOCA uncertainty evaluation and comparison with conservative calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, H.G.

    2004-01-01

    The first formulation of the USA Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 10CFR50 with applicable sections specific to NPP licensing requirements was released 1976. Over a decade later 10CFR 50.46 allowed the use of BE codes instead of conservative code models but uncertainties have to be identified and quantified. Guidelines were released that described interpretations developed over the intervening years that are applicable. Other countries established similar conservative procedures and acceptance criteria. Because conservative methods were used to calculate the peak values of key parameters, such as peak clad temperature (PCT), it was always acknowledged that a large margin, between the 'conservative' calculated value and the 'true' value, existed. Beside USA, regulation in other countries, like Germany, for example, allowed that the state of science and technology is applied in licensing. I.e. the increase of experimental evidence and progress in code development during time could be used. There was no requirement to apply a pure evaluation methodology with licensed assumptions and frozen codes. The thermal-hydraulic system codes became more and more best-estimate codes based on comprehensive validation. This development was and is possible because the rules and guidelines provide the necessary latitude to consider further development of safety technology. Best estimate codes are allowed to be used in licensing in combination with conservative initial and boundary conditions. However, uncertainty quantification is not required. Since some of the initial and boundary conditions are more conservative compared with those internationally used (e.g. 106% reactor power instead 102%, a single failure plus a non-availability due to preventive maintenance is assumed, etc.) it is claimed that the uncertainties of code models are covered. Since many utilities apply for power increase, calculation results come closer to some licensing criteria. The situation in German licensing

  11. Managing the continuum certainty, uncertainty, unpredictability in large engineering projects

    CERN Document Server

    Caron, Franco

    2013-01-01

    The brief will describe how to develop a risk analysis applied to a project , through a sequence of steps: risk management planning, risk identification, risk classification, risk assessment, risk quantification, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control, process close out and lessons learning. The project risk analysis and management process will be applied to large engineering projects, in particular related to the oil and gas industry. The brief will address the overall range of possible events affecting the project moving from certainty (project issues) through uncertainty (project risks) to unpredictability (unforeseeable events), considering both negative and positive events. Some quantitative techniques (simulation, event tree, Bayesian inference, etc.) will be used to develop risk quantification. The brief addresses a typical subject in the area of project management, with reference to large engineering projects concerning the realization of large plants and infrastructures. These projects a...

  12. Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, U; Jastrow, J D; Matamala, R; Fan, Z; Miller, R M; Hugelius, G; Kuhry, P; Koven, C D; Riley, W J; Harden, J W; Ping, C L; Michaelson, G J; McGuire, A D; Tarnocai, C; Schaefer, K; Schuur, E A G; Jorgenson, M T; Hinzman, L D

    2013-01-01

    The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges. (letter)

  13. Application of probabilistic modelling for the uncertainty evaluation of alignment measurements of large accelerator magnets assemblies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doytchinov, I.; Tonnellier, X.; Shore, P.; Nicquevert, B.; Modena, M.; Mainaud Durand, H.

    2018-05-01

    Micrometric assembly and alignment requirements for future particle accelerators, and especially large assemblies, create the need for accurate uncertainty budgeting of alignment measurements. Measurements and uncertainties have to be accurately stated and traceable, to international standards, for metre-long sized assemblies, in the range of tens of µm. Indeed, these hundreds of assemblies will be produced and measured by several suppliers around the world, and will have to be integrated into a single machine. As part of the PACMAN project at CERN, we proposed and studied a practical application of probabilistic modelling of task-specific alignment uncertainty by applying a simulation by constraints calibration method. Using this method, we calibrated our measurement model using available data from ISO standardised tests (10360 series) for the metrology equipment. We combined this model with reference measurements and analysis of the measured data to quantify the actual specific uncertainty of each alignment measurement procedure. Our methodology was successfully validated against a calibrated and traceable 3D artefact as part of an international inter-laboratory study. The validated models were used to study the expected alignment uncertainty and important sensitivity factors in measuring the shortest and longest of the compact linear collider study assemblies, 0.54 m and 2.1 m respectively. In both cases, the laboratory alignment uncertainty was within the targeted uncertainty budget of 12 µm (68% confidence level). It was found that the remaining uncertainty budget for any additional alignment error compensations, such as the thermal drift error due to variation in machine operation heat load conditions, must be within 8.9 µm and 9.8 µm (68% confidence level) respectively.

  14. Recent Successes and Remaining Challenges in Predicting Phosphorus Loading to Surface Waters at Large Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, J.; Metson, G.; Beusen, A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past century humans have greatly accelerated phosphorus (P) flows from land to aquatic ecosystems, causing eutrophication and associated effects such as harmful algal blooms and hypoxia. Effectively addressing this challenge requires understanding geographic and temporal distribution of aquatic P loading, knowledge of major controls on P loading, and the relative importance of various potential P sources. The Global (N)utrient (E)xport from (W)ater(S)heds) NEWS model and recent improvements and extensions of this modeling system can be used to generate this understanding. This presentation will focus on insights global NEWS models grant into past, present, and potential future P sources and sinks, with a focus on the world's large rivers. Early results suggest: 1) that while aquatic P loading is globally dominated by particulate forms, dissolved P can be locally dominant; 2) that P loading has increased substantially at the global scale, but unevenly between world regions, with hotspots in South and East Asia; 3) that P loading is likely to continue to increase globally, but decrease in certain regions that are actively pursuing proactive P management; and 4) that point sources, especially in urban centers, play an important (even dominant) role in determining loads of dissolved inorganic P. Despite these insights, substantial unexplained variance remains when model predictions and measurements are compared at global and regional scales, for example within the U.S. Disagreements between model predictions and measurements suggest opportunities for model improvement. In particular, explicit inclusion of soil characteristics and the concept of temporal P legacies in future iterations of NEWS (and other) models may help improve correspondence between models and measurements.

  15. Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carslaw, K. S.; Lee, L. A.; Reddington, C. L.; Pringle, K. J.; Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.; Mann, G. W.; Spracklen, D. V.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Regayre, L. A.; Pierce, J. R.

    2013-11-01

    The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates.

  16. Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carslaw, K S; Lee, L A; Reddington, C L; Pringle, K J; Rap, A; Forster, P M; Mann, G W; Spracklen, D V; Woodhouse, M T; Regayre, L A; Pierce, J R

    2013-11-07

    The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates.

  17. Uncertainty Quantification for Large-Scale Ice Sheet Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghattas, Omar [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2016-02-05

    This report summarizes our work to develop advanced forward and inverse solvers and uncertainty quantification capabilities for a nonlinear 3D full Stokes continental-scale ice sheet flow model. The components include: (1) forward solver: a new state-of-the-art parallel adaptive scalable high-order-accurate mass-conservative Newton-based 3D nonlinear full Stokes ice sheet flow simulator; (2) inverse solver: a new adjoint-based inexact Newton method for solution of deterministic inverse problems governed by the above 3D nonlinear full Stokes ice flow model; and (3) uncertainty quantification: a novel Hessian-based Bayesian method for quantifying uncertainties in the inverse ice sheet flow solution and propagating them forward into predictions of quantities of interest such as ice mass flux to the ocean.

  18. Uncertainty budget in internal monostandard NAA for small and large size samples analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dasari, K.B.; Acharya, R.

    2014-01-01

    Total uncertainty budget evaluation on determined concentration value is important under quality assurance programme. Concentration calculation in NAA or carried out by relative NAA and k0 based internal monostandard NAA (IM-NAA) method. IM-NAA method has been used for small and large sample analysis of clay potteries. An attempt was made to identify the uncertainty components in IM-NAA and uncertainty budget for La in both small and large size samples has been evaluated and compared. (author)

  19. Mechanisms of action of brief alcohol interventions remain largely unknown – A narrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques eGaume

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of evidence has shown efficacy of brief intervention (BI for hazardous and harmful alcohol use in primary health care settings. Evidence for efficacy in other settings, and effectiveness when implemented at larger scale is disappointing. Indeed, BI comprises varying content, and exploring BI content and mechanisms of action may be a promising way to enhance efficacy and effectiveness.We searched Medline and PsychInfo, as well as references of retrieved publications for original research or reviews on active ingredients (or components, or mechanisms of face-to-face BIs (and its subtypes, including brief advice and brief motivational interviewing [BMI] for alcohol. Overall, BI active ingredients have been scarcely investigated, almost only within BMI, and mostly among Emergency Room patients, young adults, and US college students. This body of research has shown that personalized feedback may be an effective component; specific MI techniques showed mixed findings; decisional balance findings tended to suggest a potential detrimental effect; while change plan exercises, advice to reduce or stop drinking, presenting alternative change options, and moderation strategies are promising but need further study. Client change talk is a potential mediator of BMI effects; change in norm perceptions and enhanced discrepancy between current behavior and broader life goals and values have received preliminary support; readiness to change was only partially supported as a mediator; while enhanced awareness of drinking, perceived risks/benefits of alcohol use, alcohol treatment seeking, and self-efficacy were seldom studied and have as yet found no significant support as such.Research is obviously limited and has provided no clear and consistent evidence on the mechanisms of alcohol BI. How BI achieves the effects seen in randomized trials remains mostly unknown and should be investigated to inform the development of more effective interventions.

  20. Mechanisms of action of brief alcohol interventions remain largely unknown - a narrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaume, Jacques; McCambridge, Jim; Bertholet, Nicolas; Daeppen, Jean-Bernard

    2014-01-01

    A growing body of evidence has shown the efficacy of brief intervention (BI) for hazardous and harmful alcohol use in primary health care settings. Evidence for efficacy in other settings and effectiveness when implemented at larger scale are disappointing. Indeed, BI comprises varying content; exploring BI content and mechanisms of action may be a promising way to enhance efficacy and effectiveness. Medline and PsychInfo, as well as references of retrieved publications were searched for original research or review on active ingredients (components or mechanisms) of face-to-face BIs [and its subtypes, including brief advice and brief motivational interviewing (BMI)] for alcohol. Overall, BI active ingredients have been scarcely investigated, almost only within BMI, and mostly among patients in the emergency room, young adults, and US college students. This body of research has shown that personalized feedback may be an effective component; specific MI techniques showed mixed findings; decisional balance findings tended to suggest a potential detrimental effect; while change plan exercises, advice to reduce or stop drinking, presenting alternative change options, and moderation strategies are promising but need further study. Client change talk is a potential mediator of BMI effects; change in norm perceptions and enhanced discrepancy between current behavior and broader life goals and values have received preliminary support; readiness to change was only partially supported as a mediator; while enhanced awareness of drinking, perceived risks/benefits of alcohol use, alcohol treatment seeking, and self-efficacy were seldom studied and have as yet found no significant support as such. Research is obviously limited and has provided no clear and consistent evidence on the mechanisms of alcohol BI. How BI achieves the effects seen in randomized trials remains mostly unknown and should be investigated to inform the development of more effective interventions.

  1. Planning under uncertainty solving large-scale stochastic linear programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Infanger, G. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Operations Research]|[Technische Univ., Vienna (Austria). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft

    1992-12-01

    For many practical problems, solutions obtained from deterministic models are unsatisfactory because they fail to hedge against certain contingencies that may occur in the future. Stochastic models address this shortcoming, but up to recently seemed to be intractable due to their size. Recent advances both in solution algorithms and in computer technology now allow us to solve important and general classes of practical stochastic problems. We show how large-scale stochastic linear programs can be efficiently solved by combining classical decomposition and Monte Carlo (importance) sampling techniques. We discuss the methodology for solving two-stage stochastic linear programs with recourse, present numerical results of large problems with numerous stochastic parameters, show how to efficiently implement the methodology on a parallel multi-computer and derive the theory for solving a general class of multi-stage problems with dependency of the stochastic parameters within a stage and between different stages.

  2. [Dual process in large number estimation under uncertainty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumuro, Miki; Miwa, Kazuhisa; Terai, Hitoshi; Yamada, Kento

    2016-08-01

    According to dual process theory, there are two systems in the mind: an intuitive and automatic System 1 and a logical and effortful System 2. While many previous studies about number estimation have focused on simple heuristics and automatic processes, the deliberative System 2 process has not been sufficiently studied. This study focused on the System 2 process for large number estimation. First, we described an estimation process based on participants’ verbal reports. The task, corresponding to the problem-solving process, consisted of creating subgoals, retrieving values, and applying operations. Second, we investigated the influence of such deliberative process by System 2 on intuitive estimation by System 1, using anchoring effects. The results of the experiment showed that the System 2 process could mitigate anchoring effects.

  3. Social Discounting of Large Dams with Climate Change Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Jeuland

    2010-06-01

    This paper reviews the recent discounting controversy and examines its implications for the appraisal of an illustrative hydropower project in Ethiopia. The analysis uses an integrated hydro-economic model that accounts for how the dam’s transboundary impacts vary with climate change. The real value of the dam is found to be highly sensitive to assumptions about future economic growth. The argument for investment is weakest under conditions of robust global economic growth, particularly if these coincide with unfavourable hydrological or development factors related to the project. If however long-term growth is reduced, the value of the dam tends to increase. There may also be distributional or local arguments favouring investment, if growth in the investment region lags behind that of the rest of the globe. In such circumstances, a large dam can be seen as a form of insurance that protects future vulnerable generations against the possibility of macroeconomic instability or climate shocks.

  4. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  5. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  6. How uncertainty in socio-economic variables affects large-scale transport model forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    A strategic task assigned to large-scale transport models is to forecast the demand for transport over long periods of time to assess transport projects. However, by modelling complex systems transport models have an inherent uncertainty which increases over time. As a consequence, the longer...... the period forecasted the less reliable is the forecasted model output. Describing uncertainty propagation patterns over time is therefore important in order to provide complete information to the decision makers. Among the existing literature only few studies analyze uncertainty propagation patterns over...

  7. Evaluating Sources of Risks in Large Engineering Projects: The Roles of Equivocality and Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leena Pekkinen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary project risk management literature introduces uncertainty, i.e., the lack of information, as a fundamental basis of project risks. In this study the authors assert that equivocality, i.e., the existence of multiple and conflicting interpretations, can also serve as a basis of risks. With an in-depth empirical investigation of a large complex engineering project the authors identified risk sources having their bases in the situations where uncertainty or equivocality was the predominant attribute. The information processing theory proposes different managerial practices for risk management based on the sources of risks in uncertainty or equivocality.

  8. A Statistical Modeling Framework for Characterising Uncertainty in Large Datasets: Application to Ocean Colour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter E. Land

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty estimation is crucial to establishing confidence in any data analysis, and this is especially true for Essential Climate Variables, including ocean colour. Methods for deriving uncertainty vary greatly across data types, so a generic statistics-based approach applicable to multiple data types is an advantage to simplify the use and understanding of uncertainty data. Progress towards rigorous uncertainty analysis of ocean colour has been slow, in part because of the complexity of ocean colour processing. Here, we present a general approach to uncertainty characterisation, using a database of satellite-in situ matchups to generate a statistical model of satellite uncertainty as a function of its contributing variables. With an example NASA MODIS-Aqua chlorophyll-a matchups database mostly covering the north Atlantic, we demonstrate a model that explains 67% of the squared error in log(chlorophyll-a as a potentially correctable bias, with the remaining uncertainty being characterised as standard deviation and standard error at each pixel. The method is quite general, depending only on the existence of a suitable database of matchups or reference values, and can be applied to other sensors and data types such as other satellite observed Essential Climate Variables, empirical algorithms derived from in situ data, or even model data.

  9. Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; James A. Westfall

    2014-01-01

    Forest inventory estimates of tree volume for large areas are typically calculated by adding model predictions of volumes for individual trees. However, the uncertainty in the model predictions is generally ignored with the result that the precision of the large area volume estimates is overestimated. The primary study objective was to estimate the effects of model...

  10. Interpretation of the peak areas in gamma-ray spectra that have a large relative uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korun, M.; Maver Modec, P.; Vodenik, B.

    2012-01-01

    Empirical evidence is provided that the areas of peaks having a relative uncertainty in excess of 30% are overestimated. This systematic influence is of a statistical nature and originates in way the peak-analyzing routine recognizes the small peaks. It is not easy to detect this influence since it is smaller than the peak-area uncertainty. However, the systematic influence can be revealed in repeated measurements under the same experimental conditions, e.g., in background measurements. To evaluate the systematic influence, background measurements were analyzed with the peak-analyzing procedure described by Korun et al. (2008). The magnitude of the influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the peak area and may amount, in the conditions used in the peak analysis, to a factor of 5 at relative uncertainties exceeding 60%. From the measurements, the probability for type-II errors, as a function of the relative uncertainty of the peak area, was extracted. This probability is near zero below an uncertainty of 30% and rises to 90% at uncertainties exceeding 50%. - Highlights: ► A systematic influence affecting small peak areas in gamma-ray spectra is described. ► The influence originates in the peak locating procedure, using a pre-determined sensitivity. ► The predetermined sensitivity makes peak areas with large uncertainties to be overestimated. ► The influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the number of counts in the peak. ► Corrections exceeding a factor of 3 are attained at peak area uncertainties exceeding 60%.

  11. Uncertainty quantification of surface-water/groundwater exchange estimates in large wetland systems using Python

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, J. D.; Metz, P. A.

    2014-12-01

    Most watershed studies include observation-based water budget analyses to develop first-order estimates of significant flow terms. Surface-water/groundwater (SWGW) exchange is typically assumed to be equal to the residual of the sum of inflows and outflows in a watershed. These estimates of SWGW exchange, however, are highly uncertain as a result of the propagation of uncertainty inherent in the calculation or processing of the other terms of the water budget, such as stage-area-volume relations, and uncertainties associated with land-cover based evapotranspiration (ET) rate estimates. Furthermore, the uncertainty of estimated SWGW exchanges can be magnified in large wetland systems that transition from dry to wet during wet periods. Although it is well understood that observation-based estimates of SWGW exchange are uncertain it is uncommon for the uncertainty of these estimates to be directly quantified. High-level programming languages like Python can greatly reduce the effort required to (1) quantify the uncertainty of estimated SWGW exchange in large wetland systems and (2) evaluate how different approaches for partitioning land-cover data in a watershed may affect the water-budget uncertainty. We have used Python with the Numpy, Scipy.stats, and pyDOE packages to implement an unconstrained Monte Carlo approach with Latin Hypercube sampling to quantify the uncertainty of monthly estimates of SWGW exchange in the Floral City watershed of the Tsala Apopka wetland system in west-central Florida, USA. Possible sources of uncertainty in the water budget analysis include rainfall, ET, canal discharge, and land/bathymetric surface elevations. Each of these input variables was assigned a probability distribution based on observation error or spanning the range of probable values. The Monte Carlo integration process exposes the uncertainties in land-cover based ET rate estimates as the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in SWGW exchange estimates. We will discuss

  12. Aerosol pH buffering in the southeastern US: Fine particles remain highly acidic despite large reductions in sulfate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, R. J.; Guo, H.; Russell, A. G.; Nenes, A.

    2015-12-01

    pH is a critical aerosol property that impacts many atmospheric processes, including biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation, gas-particle phase partitioning, and mineral dust or redox metal mobilization. Particle pH has also been linked to adverse health effects. Using a comprehensive data set from the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) as the basis for thermodynamic modeling, we have shown that particles are currently highly acidic in the southeastern US, with pH between 0 and 2. Sulfate and ammonium are the main acid-base components that determine particle pH in this region, however they have different sources and their concentrations are changing. Over 15 years of network data show that sulfur dioxide emission reductions have resulted in a roughly 70 percent decrease in sulfate, whereas ammonia emissions, mainly link to agricultural activities, have been largely steady, as have gas phase ammonia concentrations. This has led to the view that particles are becoming more neutralized. However, sensitivity analysis, based on thermodynamic modeling, to changing sulfate concentrations indicates that particles have remained highly acidic over the past decade, despite the large reductions in sulfate. Furthermore, anticipated continued reductions of sulfate and relatively constant ammonia emissions into the future will not significantly change particle pH until sulfate drops to clean continental background levels. The result reshapes our expectation of future particle pH and implies that atmospheric processes and adverse health effects linked to particle acidity will remain unchanged for some time into the future.

  13. Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

    2007-01-01

    The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result of the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The

  14. A new robust adaptive controller for vibration control of active engine mount subjected to large uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fakhari, Vahid; Choi, Seung-Bok; Cho, Chang-Hyun

    2015-01-01

    This work presents a new robust model reference adaptive control (MRAC) for vibration control caused from vehicle engine using an electromagnetic type of active engine mount. Vibration isolation performances of the active mount associated with the robust controller are evaluated in the presence of large uncertainties. As a first step, an active mount with linear solenoid actuator is prepared and its dynamic model is identified via experimental test. Subsequently, a new robust MRAC based on the gradient method with σ-modification is designed by selecting a proper reference model. In designing the robust adaptive control, structured (parametric) uncertainties in the stiffness of the passive part of the mount and in damping ratio of the active part of the mount are considered to investigate the robustness of the proposed controller. Experimental and simulation results are presented to evaluate performance focusing on the robustness behavior of the controller in the face of large uncertainties. The obtained results show that the proposed controller can sufficiently provide the robust vibration control performance even in the presence of large uncertainties showing an effective vibration isolation. (paper)

  15. Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.; Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.

    1988-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive approach to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of large-scale computer models that is analytic (deterministic) in principle and that is firmly based on the model equations. The theory and application of two systems based upon computer calculus, GRESS and ADGEN, are discussed relative to their role in calculating model derivatives and sensitivities without a prohibitive initial manpower investment. Storage and computational requirements for these two systems are compared for a gradient-enhanced version of the PRESTO-II computer model. A Deterministic Uncertainty Analysis (DUA) method that retains the characteristics of analytically computing result uncertainties based upon parameter probability distributions is then introduced and results from recent studies are shown. 29 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  16. Uncertainty Evaluation of Reactivity Coefficients for a large advanced SFR Core Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khamakhem, Wassim; Rimpault, Gerald

    2008-01-01

    Sodium Cooled Fast Reactors are currently being reshaped in order to meet Generation IV goals on economics, safety and reliability, sustainability and proliferation resistance. Recent studies have led to large SFR cores for a 3600 MWth power plants, cores which exhibit interesting features. The designs have had to balance between competing aspects such as sustainability and safety characteristics. Sustainability in neutronic terms is translated into positive breeding gain and safety into rather low Na void reactivity effects. The studies have been done on two SFR concepts using oxide and carbide fuels. The use of the sensitivity theory in the ERANOS determinist code system has been used. Calculations have been performed with different sodium evaluations: JEF2.2, ERALIB-1 and the most recent JEFF3.1 and ENDF/B-VII in order to make a broad comparison. Values for the Na void reactivity effect exhibit differences as large as 14% when using the different sodium libraries. Uncertainties due to nuclear data on the reactivity coefficients were performed with BOLNA variances-covariances data, the Na Void Effect uncertainties are near to 12% at 1σ. Since, the uncertainties are far beyond the target accuracy for a design achieving high performance, two directions are envisaged: the first one is to perform new differential measurements or in a second attempt use integral experiments to improve effectively the nuclear data set and its uncertainties such as performed in the past with ERALIB1. (authors)

  17. Systematic uncertainties in long-baseline neutrino oscillations for large θ₁₃

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coloma, Pilar; Huber, Patrick; Kopp, Joachim; Winter, Walter

    2013-02-01

    We study the physics potential of future long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments at large θ₁₃, focusing especially on systematic uncertainties. We discuss superbeams, \\bbeams, and neutrino factories, and for the first time compare these experiments on an equal footing with respect to systematic errors. We explicitly simulate near detectors for all experiments, we use the same implementation of systematic uncertainties for all experiments, and we fully correlate the uncertainties among detectors, oscillation channels, and beam polarizations as appropriate. As our primary performance indicator, we use the achievable precision in the measurement of the CP violating phase $\\deltacp$. We find that a neutrino factory is the only instrument that can measure $\\deltacp$ with a precision similar to that of its quark sector counterpart. All neutrino beams operating at peak energies ≳2 GeV are quite robust with respect to systematic uncertainties, whereas especially \\bbeams and \\thk suffer from large cross section uncertainties in the quasi-elastic regime, combined with their inability to measure the appearance signal cross sections at the near detector. A noteworthy exception is the combination of a γ =100 \\bbeam with an \\spl-based superbeam, in which all relevant cross sections can be measured in a self-consistent way. This provides a performance, second only to the neutrino factory. For other superbeam experiments such as \\lbno and the setups studied in the context of the \\lbne reconfiguration effort, statistics turns out to be the bottleneck. In almost all cases, the near detector is not critical to control systematics since the combined fit of appearance and disappearance data already constrains the impact of systematics to be small provided that the three active flavor oscillation framework is valid.

  18. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  19. Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

  20. Uncertainty analysis methods for quantification of source terms using a large computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Seok Jung

    1997-02-01

    Quantification of uncertainties in the source term estimations by a large computer code, such as MELCOR and MAAP, is an essential process of the current probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs). The main objectives of the present study are (1) to investigate the applicability of a combined procedure of the response surface method (RSM) based on input determined from a statistical design and the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique for the uncertainty analysis of CsI release fractions under a hypothetical severe accident sequence of a station blackout at Young-Gwang nuclear power plant using MAAP3.0B code as a benchmark problem; and (2) to propose a new measure of uncertainty importance based on the distributional sensitivity analysis. On the basis of the results obtained in the present work, the RSM is recommended to be used as a principal tool for an overall uncertainty analysis in source term quantifications, while using the LHS in the calculations of standardized regression coefficients (SRC) and standardized rank regression coefficients (SRRC) to determine the subset of the most important input parameters in the final screening step and to check the cumulative distribution functions (cdfs) obtained by RSM. Verification of the response surface model for its sufficient accuracy is a prerequisite for the reliability of the final results obtained by the combined procedure proposed in the present work. In the present study a new measure has been developed to utilize the metric distance obtained from cumulative distribution functions (cdfs). The measure has been evaluated for three different cases of distributions in order to assess the characteristics of the measure: The first case and the second are when the distribution is known as analytical distributions and the other case is when the distribution is unknown. The first case is given by symmetry analytical distributions. The second case consists of two asymmetry distributions of which the skewness is non zero

  1. Deterministic methods for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in large-scale computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.; Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Lucius, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. This paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. The paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. The paper demonstrates the deterministic approach to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis as applied to a sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole. The sample problem is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. The DUA method gives a more accurate result based upon only two model executions compared to fifty executions in the statistical case

  2. Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.; Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.

    1988-01-01

    The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis have traditionally been dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. These methods are able to estimate sensitivities, generate response surfaces, and estimate response probability distributions given the input parameter probability distributions. Because the statistical methods are computationally costly, they are usually applied only to problems with relatively small parameter sets. Deterministic methods, on the other hand, are very efficient and can handle large data sets, but generally require simpler models because of the considerable programming effort required for their implementation. The first part of this paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. This second part of the paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. This paper is applicable to low-level radioactive waste disposal system performance assessment

  3. Evaluation of photonuclear reaction cross-sections using the reduction method for large systematic uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varlamov, V.V.; Efimkin, N.G.; Ishkhanov, B.S.; Sapunenko, V.V.

    1994-12-01

    The authors describe a method based on the reduction method for the evaluation of photonuclear reaction cross-sections obtained under conditions where there are large systematic uncertainties (different instrumental functions, calibration and normalization errors). The evaluation method involves using the actual instrumental function (photon spectrum) of each individual experiment to reduce the data to a representation generated by an instrumental function of better quality. The objective is to find the most reasonably achievable monoenergetic representation of the information on the reaction cross-section derived from the results of various experiments and to take into account the calibration and normalization errors in these experiments. The method was used to obtain the evaluated total photoneutron reaction cross-section (γ,xn) for a large number of nuclei. Data obtained for 16 O and 208 Pb are presented. (author). 36 refs, 6 figs, 4 tabs

  4. A maturation model for project-based organisations – with uncertainty management as an always remaining multi-project management focus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Jerbrant

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The classical view of multi-project management does not capture its dynamic nature. Present theory falls short in the expositive dimension of how management of project-based companies evolves because of their need to be agile and adaptable to a changing environment. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present a descriptive model that elucidates the maturation processes in a project-based organization as well as to give an enhanced understanding of multi-project management in practice. The maturation model displays how the management of project-based organizations evolves between structuring administration and managing any uncertainty, and emphasizes the importance of active individual actions and situated management actions that haveto be undertaken in order to coordinate, synchronize, and communicate the required knowledge and skills.The outcomes primarily reveal that, although standardized project models are used and considerable resources are spent on effective project portfolio management, how information and communication are executedis essential for the management of project-based organizations. This is particularly true for informal and non-codified communication.

  5. Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Vu, Phuong Nam; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

    2016-03-01

    In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.

  6. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification in large-scale predictive simulations of turbulent flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geraci, Gianluca; Jofre-Cruanyes, Lluis; Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2017-11-01

    The performance characterization of complex engineering systems often relies on accurate, but computationally intensive numerical simulations. It is also well recognized that in order to obtain a reliable numerical prediction the propagation of uncertainties needs to be included. Therefore, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) plays a fundamental role in building confidence in predictive science. Despite the great improvement in recent years, even the more advanced UQ algorithms are still limited to fairly simplified applications and only moderate parameter dimensionality. Moreover, in the case of extremely large dimensionality, sampling methods, i.e. Monte Carlo (MC) based approaches, appear to be the only viable alternative. In this talk we describe and compare a family of approaches which aim to accelerate the convergence of standard MC simulations. These methods are based on hierarchies of generalized numerical resolutions (multi-level) or model fidelities (multi-fidelity), and attempt to leverage the correlation between Low- and High-Fidelity (HF) models to obtain a more accurate statistical estimator without introducing additional HF realizations. The performance of these methods are assessed on an irradiated particle laden turbulent flow (PSAAP II solar energy receiver). This investigation was funded by the United States Department of Energy's (DoE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) under the Predicitive Science Academic Alliance Program (PSAAP) II at Stanford University.

  7. Scalable multi-objective control for large scale water resources systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Quinn, Julianne; Herman, Jonathan; Castelletti, Andrea; Reed, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The use of mathematical models to support the optimal management of environmental systems is rapidly expanding over the last years due to advances in scientific knowledge of the natural processes, efficiency of the optimization techniques, and availability of computational resources. However, undergoing changes in climate and society introduce additional challenges for controlling these systems, ultimately motivating the emergence of complex models to explore key causal relationships and dependencies on uncontrolled sources of variability. In this work, we contribute a novel implementation of the evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search (EMODPS) method for controlling environmental systems under uncertainty. The proposed approach combines direct policy search (DPS) with hierarchical parallelization of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) and offers a threefold advantage: the DPS simulation-based optimization can be combined with any simulation model and does not add any constraint on modeled information, allowing the use of exogenous information in conditioning the decisions. Moreover, the combination of DPS and MOEAs prompts the generation or Pareto approximate set of solutions for up to 10 objectives, thus overcoming the decision biases produced by cognitive myopia, where narrow or restrictive definitions of optimality strongly limit the discovery of decision relevant alternatives. Finally, the use of large-scale MOEAs parallelization improves the ability of the designed solutions in handling the uncertainty due to severe natural variability. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a challenging water resources management problem represented by the optimal control of a network of four multipurpose water reservoirs in the Red River basin (Vietnam). As part of the medium-long term energy and food security national strategy, four large reservoirs have been constructed on the Red River tributaries, which are mainly operated for hydropower

  8. Using Large-Scale Cooperative Control to Manage Operational Uncertainties for Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaxa-Rozen, M.; Rostampour, V.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Bloemendal, M.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) technology can help reduce the demand of energy for heating and cooling in buildings, and has become a popular option for larger buildings in northern Europe. However, the larger-scale deployment of this technology has evidenced some issues of concern for policymakers; in particular, recent research shows that operational uncertainties contribute to inefficient outcomes under current planning methods for ATES. For instance, systems in the Netherlands typically use less than half of their permitted pumping volume on an annual basis. This overcapacity gives users more flexibility to operate their systems in response to the uncertainties which drive building energy demand; these include short-term operational factors such as weather and occupancy, and longer-term, deeply uncertain factors such as changes in climate and aquifer conditions over the lifespan of the buildings. However, as allocated subsurface volume remains unused, this situation limits the adoption of the technology in dense areas. Previous work using coupled agent-based/geohydrological simulation has shown that the cooperative operation of neighbouring ATES systems can support more efficient spatial planning, by dynamically managing thermal interactions in response to uncertain operating conditions. An idealized case study with centralized ATES control thus showed significant improvements in the energy savings which could obtained per unit of allocated subsurface volume, without degrading the recovery performance of systems. This work will extend this cooperative approach for a realistic case study of ATES planning in the city of Utrecht, in the Netherlands. This case was previously simulated under different scenarios for individual ATES operation. The poster will compare these results with a cooperative case under which neighbouring systems can coordinate their operation to manage interactions. Furthermore, a cooperative game-theoretical framework will be

  9. Retrospective comparative ten-year study of cumulative survival rates of remaining teeth in large edentulism treated with implant-supported fixed partial dentures or removable partial dentures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Seiya; Arakawa, Hikaru; Maekawa, Kenji; Hara, Emilio Satoshi; Noda, Kinji; Minakuchi, Hajime; Sonoyama, Wataru; Matsuka, Yoshizo; Kuboki, Takuo

    2013-07-01

    This study aimed to compare the survival rates of remaining teeth between implant-supported fixed dentures (IFDs) and removable partial dentures (RPDs) in patients with large edentulous cases. The second goal was to assess the risk factors for remaining tooth loss. The study subjects were selected among those who received prosthodontic treatment at Okayama University Dental Hospital for their edentulous space exceeding at least four continuous missing teeth. Twenty-one patients were included in the IFD group and 82 patients were included in the RPD group. Survival rates of remaining teeth were calculated in three subcategories: (1) whole remaining teeth, (2) adjacent teeth to intended edentulous space, and (3) opposing teeth to intended edentulous space. The ten-year cumulative survival rate of the whole remaining teeth was significantly higher in the IFD group (40.0%) than in the RPD group (24.4%). On the other hand, there was no significant difference between two groups in the survival rate of teeth adjacent or opposing to intended edentulous space. A Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed that RPD restoration and gender (male) were the significant risk factors for remaining tooth loss (whole remaining teeth). These results suggest that IFD treatment can reduce the incidence of remaining tooth loss in large edentulous cases. Copyright © 2013 Japan Prosthodontic Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Uncertainty of SWAT model at different DEM resolutions in a large mountainous watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peipei; Liu, Ruimin; Bao, Yimeng; Wang, Jiawei; Yu, Wenwen; Shen, Zhenyao

    2014-04-15

    The objective of this study was to enhance understanding of the sensitivity of the SWAT model to the resolutions of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) based on the analysis of multiple evaluation indicators. The Xiangxi River, a large tributary of Three Gorges Reservoir in China, was selected as the study area. A range of 17 DEM spatial resolutions, from 30 to 1000 m, was examined, and the annual and monthly model outputs based on each resolution were compared. The following results were obtained: (i) sediment yield was greatly affected by DEM resolution; (ii) the prediction of dissolved oxygen load was significantly affected by DEM resolutions coarser than 500 m; (iii) Total Nitrogen (TN) load was not greatly affected by the DEM resolution; (iv) Nitrate Nitrogen (NO₃-N) and Total Phosphorus (TP) loads were slightly affected by the DEM resolution; and (v) flow and Ammonia Nitrogen (NH₄-N) load were essentially unaffected by the DEM resolution. The flow and dissolved oxygen load decreased more significantly in the dry season than in the wet and normal seasons. Excluding flow and dissolved oxygen, the uncertainties of the other Hydrology/Non-point Source (H/NPS) pollution indicators were greater in the wet season than in the dry and normal seasons. Considering the temporal distribution uncertainties, the optimal DEM resolutions for flow was 30-200 m, for sediment and TP was 30-100 m, for dissolved oxygen and NO₃-N was 30-300 m, for NH₄-N was 30 to 70 m and for TN was 30-150 m. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Prototype application of best estimate and uncertainty safety analysis methodology to large LOCA analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxat, J.C.; Huget, R.G.

    2001-01-01

    Development of a methodology to perform best estimate and uncertainty nuclear safety analysis has been underway at Ontario Power Generation for the past two and one half years. A key driver for the methodology development, and one of the major challenges faced, is the need to re-establish demonstrated safety margins that have progressively been undermined through excessive and compounding conservatism in deterministic analyses. The major focus of the prototyping applications was to quantify the safety margins that exist at the probable range of high power operating conditions, rather than the highly improbable operating states associated with Limit of the Envelope (LOE) assumptions. In LOE, all parameters of significance to the consequences of a postulated accident are assumed to simultaneously deviate to their limiting values. Another equally important objective of the prototyping was to demonstrate the feasibility of conducting safety analysis as an incremental analysis activity, as opposed to a major re-analysis activity. The prototype analysis solely employed prior analyses of Bruce B large break LOCA events - no new computer simulations were undertaken. This is a significant and novel feature of the prototyping work. This methodology framework has been applied to a postulated large break LOCA in a Bruce generating unit on a prototype basis. This paper presents results of the application. (author)

  12. Uncertainty assessment of a model for biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal: Application to a large wastewater treatment plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Cosenza, Alida; Viviani, Gaspare

    In the last few years, the use of mathematical models in WasteWater Treatment Plant (WWTP) processes has become a common way to predict WWTP behaviour. However, mathematical models generally demand advanced input for their implementation that must be evaluated by an extensive data-gathering campaign, which cannot always be carried out. This fact, together with the intrinsic complexity of the model structure, leads to model results that may be very uncertain. Quantification of the uncertainty is imperative. However, despite the importance of uncertainty quantification, only few studies have been carried out in the wastewater treatment field, and those studies only included a few of the sources of model uncertainty. Seeking the development of the area, the paper presents the uncertainty assessment of a mathematical model simulating biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal. The uncertainty assessment was conducted according to the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology that has been scarcely applied in wastewater field. The model was based on activated-sludge models 1 (ASM) and 2 (ASM2). Different approaches can be used for uncertainty analysis. The GLUE methodology requires a large number of Monte Carlo simulations in which a random sampling of individual parameters drawn from probability distributions is used to determine a set of parameter values. Using this approach, model reliability was evaluated based on its capacity to globally limit the uncertainty. The method was applied to a large full-scale WWTP for which quantity and quality data was gathered. The analysis enabled to gain useful insights for WWTP modelling identifying the crucial aspects where higher uncertainty rely and where therefore, more efforts should be provided in terms of both data gathering and modelling practises.

  13. Dose uncertainties for large solar particle events: Input spectra variability and human geometry approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townsend, Lawrence W.; Zapp, E. Neal

    1999-01-01

    The true uncertainties in estimates of body organ absorbed dose and dose equivalent, from exposures of interplanetary astronauts to large solar particle events (SPEs), are essentially unknown. Variations in models used to parameterize SPE proton spectra for input into space radiation transport and shielding computer codes can result in uncertainty about the reliability of dose predictions for these events. Also, different radiation transport codes and their input databases can yield significant differences in dose predictions, even for the same input spectra. Different results may also be obtained for the same input spectra and transport codes if different spacecraft and body self-shielding distributions are assumed. Heretofore there have been no systematic investigations of the variations in dose and dose equivalent resulting from these assumptions and models. In this work we present a study of the variability in predictions of organ dose and dose equivalent arising from the use of different parameters to represent the same incident SPE proton data and from the use of equivalent sphere approximations to represent human body geometry. The study uses the BRYNTRN space radiation transport code to calculate dose and dose equivalent for the skin, ocular lens and bone marrow using the October 1989 SPE as a model event. Comparisons of organ dose and dose equivalent, obtained with a realistic human geometry model and with the oft-used equivalent sphere approximation, are also made. It is demonstrated that variations of 30-40% in organ dose and dose equivalent are obtained for slight variations in spectral fitting parameters obtained when various data points are included or excluded from the fitting procedure. It is further demonstrated that extrapolating spectra from low energy (≤30 MeV) proton fluence measurements, rather than using fluence data extending out to 100 MeV results in dose and dose equivalent predictions that are underestimated by factors as large as 2

  14. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A M; Bayer, Anita D; Li, Wei; Leung, Felix; Bondeau, Alberte; Doelman, Jonathan C; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Bodirsky, Benjamin L; Ciais, Philippe; Müller, Christoph; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Olin, Stefan; Popp, Alexander; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

    2018-07-01

    Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. © 2018 John

  15. The Effects of Uncertainty in Speed-Flow Curve Parameters on a Large-Scale Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    -delay functions express travel time as a function of traffic flows and the theoretical capacity of the modeled facility. The U.S. Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) formula is one of the most extensively applied volume delay functions in practice. This study investigated uncertainty in the BPR parameters. Initially......-stage Danish national transport model. The results clearly highlight the importance to modeling purposes of taking into account BPR formula parameter uncertainty, expressed as a distribution of values rather than assumed point values. Indeed, the model output demonstrates a noticeable sensitivity to parameter...

  16. Calibration and Forward Uncertainty Propagation for Large-eddy Simulations of Engineering Flows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Templeton, Jeremy Alan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Blaylock, Myra L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Domino, Stefan P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hewson, John C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kumar, Pritvi Raj [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ling, Julia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Najm, Habib N. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ruiz, Anthony [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sargsyan, Khachik [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stewart, Alessia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wagner, Gregory [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this work is to investigate the efficacy of using calibration strategies from Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) to determine model coefficients for LES. As the target methods are for engineering LES, uncertainty from numerical aspects of the model must also be quantified. 15 The ultimate goal of this research thread is to generate a cost versus accuracy curve for LES such that the cost could be minimized given an accuracy prescribed by an engineering need. Realization of this goal would enable LES to serve as a predictive simulation tool within the engineering design process.

  17. Multi-Scale Fusion of Information for Uncertainty Quantification and Management in Large-Scale Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-02

    of completely new nonlinear Malliavin calculus . This type of calculus is important for the analysis and simulation of stationary and/or “causal...been limited by the fact that it requires the solution of an optimization problem with noisy gradients . When using deterministic optimization schemes...under uncertainty. We tested new developments on nonlinear Malliavin calculus , combining reduced basis methods with ANOVA, model validation, on

  18. Application of code scaling applicability and uncertainty methodology to the large break loss of coolant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, M.Y.; Bajorek, S.M.; Nissley, M.E.

    1998-01-01

    In the late 1980s, after completion of an extensive research program, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) amended its regulations (10CFR50.46) to allow the use of realistic physical models to analyze the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) in a light water reactors. Prior to this time, the evaluation of this accident was subject to a prescriptive set of rules (appendix K of the regulations) requiring conservative models and assumptions to be applied simultaneously, leading to very pessimistic estimates of the impact of this accident on the reactor core. The rule change therefore promised to provide significant benefits to owners of power reactors, allowing them to increase output. In response to the rule change, a method called code scaling, applicability and uncertainty (CSAU) was developed to apply realistic methods, while properly taking into account data uncertainty, uncertainty in physical modeling and plant variability. The method was claimed to be structured, traceable, and practical, but was met with some criticism when first demonstrated. In 1996, the USNRC approved a methodology, based on CSAU, developed by a group led by Westinghouse. The lessons learned in this application of CSAU will be summarized. Some of the issues raised concerning the validity and completeness of the CSAU methodology will also be discussed. (orig.)

  19. Modeling and solving a large-scale generation expansion planning problem under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Shan; Ryan, Sarah M. [Iowa State University, Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Ames (United States); Watson, Jean-Paul [Sandia National Laboratories, Discrete Math and Complex Systems Department, Albuquerque (United States); Woodruff, David L. [University of California Davis, Graduate School of Management, Davis (United States)

    2011-11-15

    We formulate a generation expansion planning problem to determine the type and quantity of power plants to be constructed over each year of an extended planning horizon, considering uncertainty regarding future demand and fuel prices. Our model is expressed as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program, which we use to compute solutions independently minimizing the expected cost and the Conditional Value-at-Risk; i.e., the risk of significantly larger-than-expected operational costs. We introduce stochastic process models to capture demand and fuel price uncertainty, which are in turn used to generate trees that accurately represent the uncertainty space. Using a realistic problem instance based on the Midwest US, we explore two fundamental, unexplored issues that arise when solving any stochastic generation expansion model. First, we introduce and discuss the use of an algorithm for computing confidence intervals on obtained solution costs, to account for the fact that a finite sample of scenarios was used to obtain a particular solution. Second, we analyze the nature of solutions obtained under different parameterizations of this method, to assess whether the recommended solutions themselves are invariant to changes in costs. The issues are critical for decision makers who seek truly robust recommendations for generation expansion planning. (orig.)

  20. Uncertainty analysis of multiple canister repository model by large-scale calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsujimoto, K.; Okuda, H.; Ahn, J.

    2007-01-01

    A prototype uncertainty analysis has been made by using the multiple-canister radionuclide transport code, VR, for performance assessment for the high-level radioactive waste repository. Fractures in the host rock determine main conduit of groundwater, and thus significantly affect the magnitude of radionuclide release rates from the repository. In this study, the probability distribution function (PDF) for the number of connected canisters in the same fracture cluster that bears water flow has been determined in a Monte-Carlo fashion by running the FFDF code with assumed PDFs for fracture geometry. The uncertainty for the release rate of 237 Np from a hypothetical repository containing 100 canisters has been quantitatively evaluated by using the VR code with PDFs for the number of connected canisters and the near field rock porosity. The calculation results show that the mass transport is greatly affected by (1) the magnitude of the radionuclide source determined by the number of connected canisters by the fracture cluster, and (2) the canister concentration effect in the same fracture network. The results also show the two conflicting tendencies that the more fractures in the repository model space, the greater average value but the smaller uncertainty of the peak fractional release rate is. To perform a vast amount of calculation, we have utilized the Earth Simulator and SR8000. The multi-level hybrid programming method is applied in the optimization to exploit high performance of the Earth Simulator. The Latin Hypercube Sampling has been utilized to reduce the number of samplings in Monte-Carlo calculation. (authors)

  1. Warning and prevention based on estimates with large uncertainties: the case of low-frequency and large-impact events like tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo

    2013-04-01

    Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical

  2. Scalability on LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling) samples for use in uncertainty analysis of large numerical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, Jorge H.; Nunez Mac Leod, J.E.

    2000-01-01

    The present paper deals with the utilization of advanced sampling statistical methods to perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on numerical models. Such models may represent physical phenomena, logical structures (such as boolean expressions) or other systems, and various of their intrinsic parameters and/or input variables are usually treated as random variables simultaneously. In the present paper a simple method to scale-up Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) samples is presented, starting with a small sample and duplicating its size at each step, making it possible to use the already run numerical model results with the smaller sample. The method does not distort the statistical properties of the random variables and does not add any bias to the samples. The results is a significant reduction in numerical models running time can be achieved (by re-using the previously run samples), keeping all the advantages of LHS, until an acceptable representation level is achieved in the output variables. (author)

  3. Managing Risk and Uncertainty in Large-Scale University Research Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sharlissa; Shangraw, R. F., Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Both publicly and privately funded research projects managed by universities are growing in size and scope. Complex, large-scale projects (over $50 million) pose new management challenges and risks for universities. This paper explores the relationship between project success and a variety of factors in large-scale university projects. First, we…

  4. The Application of Best Estimate and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology to Large LOCA Power Pulse in a CANDU 6 Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdul-Razzak, A.; Zhang, J.; Sills, H.E.; Flatt, L.; Jenkins, D.; Wallace, D.J.; Popov, N.

    2002-01-01

    The paper describes briefly a best estimate plus uncertainty analysis (BE+UA) methodology and presents its proto-typing application to the power pulse phase of a limiting large Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) for a CANDU 6 reactor fuelled with CANFLEX R fuel. The methodology is consistent with and builds on world practice. The analysis is divided into two phases to focus on the dominant parameters for each phase and to allow for the consideration of all identified highly ranked parameters in the statistical analysis and response surface fits for margin parameters. The objective of this analysis is to quantify improvements in predicted safety margins under best estimate conditions. (authors)

  5. Large-Scale Uncertainty and Error Analysis for Time-dependent Fluid/Structure Interactions in Wind Turbine Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alonso, Juan J. [Stanford University; Iaccarino, Gianluca [Stanford University

    2013-08-25

    The following is the final report covering the entire period of this aforementioned grant, June 1, 2011 - May 31, 2013 for the portion of the effort corresponding to Stanford University (SU). SU has partnered with Sandia National Laboratories (PI: Mike S. Eldred) and Purdue University (PI: Dongbin Xiu) to complete this research project and this final report includes those contributions made by the members of the team at Stanford. Dr. Eldred is continuing his contributions to this project under a no-cost extension and his contributions to the overall effort will be detailed at a later time (once his effort has concluded) on a separate project submitted by Sandia National Laboratories. At Stanford, the team is made up of Profs. Alonso, Iaccarino, and Duraisamy, post-doctoral researcher Vinod Lakshminarayan, and graduate student Santiago Padron. At Sandia National Laboratories, the team includes Michael Eldred, Matt Barone, John Jakeman, and Stefan Domino, and at Purdue University, we have Prof. Dongbin Xiu as our main collaborator. The overall objective of this project was to develop a novel, comprehensive methodology for uncertainty quantification by combining stochastic expansions (nonintrusive polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation), the adjoint approach, and fusion with experimental data to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties from random variable, random field, and model form sources. The expected outcomes of this activity were detailed in the proposal and are repeated here to set the stage for the results that we have generated during the time period of execution of this project: 1. The rigorous determination of an error budget comprising numerical errors in physical space and statistical errors in stochastic space and its use for optimal allocation of resources; 2. A considerable increase in efficiency when performing uncertainty quantification with a large number of uncertain variables in complex non-linear multi-physics problems; 3. A

  6. Nonlinear unbiased minimum-variance filter for Mars entry autonomous navigation under large uncertainties and unknown measurement bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Mengli; Zhang, Yongbo; Fu, Huimin; Wang, Zhihua

    2018-05-01

    High-precision navigation algorithm is essential for the future Mars pinpoint landing mission. The unknown inputs caused by large uncertainties of atmospheric density and aerodynamic coefficients as well as unknown measurement biases may cause large estimation errors of conventional Kalman filters. This paper proposes a derivative-free version of nonlinear unbiased minimum variance filter for Mars entry navigation. This filter has been designed to solve this problem by estimating the state and unknown measurement biases simultaneously with derivative-free character, leading to a high-precision algorithm for the Mars entry navigation. IMU/radio beacons integrated navigation is introduced in the simulation, and the result shows that with or without radio blackout, our proposed filter could achieve an accurate state estimation, much better than the conventional unscented Kalman filter, showing the ability of high-precision Mars entry navigation algorithm. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Large scale applicability of a Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection technique: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkó, Zoltán; Lathouwers, Danny; Kloosterman, Jan Leen; Hagen, Tim van der

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Grid and basis adaptive Polynomial Chaos techniques are presented for S and U analysis. • Dimensionality reduction and incremental polynomial order reduce computational costs. • An unprotected loss of flow transient is investigated in a Gas Cooled Fast Reactor. • S and U analysis is performed with MC and adaptive PC methods, for 42 input parameters. • PC accurately estimates means, variances, PDFs, sensitivities and uncertainties. - Abstract: Since the early years of reactor physics the most prominent sensitivity and uncertainty (S and U) analysis methods in the nuclear community have been adjoint based techniques. While these are very effective for pure neutronics problems due to the linearity of the transport equation, they become complicated when coupled non-linear systems are involved. With the continuous increase in computational power such complicated multi-physics problems are becoming progressively tractable, hence affordable and easily applicable S and U analysis tools also have to be developed in parallel. For reactor physics problems for which adjoint methods are prohibitive Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques offer an attractive alternative to traditional random sampling based approaches. At TU Delft such PC methods have been studied for a number of years and this paper presents a large scale application of our Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm for performing the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a Gas Cooled Fast Reactor (GFR) Unprotected Loss Of Flow (ULOF) transient. The transient was simulated using the Cathare 2 code system and a fully detailed model of the GFR2400 reactor design that was investigated in the European FP7 GoFastR project. Several sources of uncertainty were taken into account amounting to an unusually high number of stochastic input parameters (42) and numerous output quantities were investigated. The results show consistently good performance of the applied adaptive PC

  8. Understanding uncertainties in non-linear population trajectories: a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical approach to large-scale surveys of coral cover.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie Vercelloni

    Full Text Available Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making.

  9. Large-scale determinants of diversity across Spanish forest habitats: accounting for model uncertainty in compositional and structural indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin-Quller, E.; Torras, O.; Alberdi, I.; Solana, J.; Saura, S.

    2011-07-01

    An integral understanding of forest biodiversity requires the exploration of the many aspects it comprises and of the numerous potential determinants of their distribution. The landscape ecological approach provides a necessary complement to conventional local studies that focus on individual plots or forest ownerships. However, most previous landscape studies used equally-sized cells as units of analysis to identify the factors affecting forest biodiversity distribution. Stratification of the analysis by habitats with a relatively homogeneous forest composition might be more adequate to capture the underlying patterns associated to the formation and development of a particular ensemble of interacting forest species. Here we used a landscape perspective in order to improve our understanding on the influence of large-scale explanatory factors on forest biodiversity indicators in Spanish habitats, covering a wide latitudinal and attitudinal range. We considered six forest biodiversity indicators estimated from more than 30,000 field plots in the Spanish national forest inventory, distributed in 213 forest habitats over 16 Spanish provinces. We explored biodiversity response to various environmental (climate and topography) and landscape configuration (fragmentation and shape complexity) variables through multiple linear regression models (built and assessed through the Akaike Information Criterion). In particular, we took into account the inherent model uncertainty when dealing with a complex and large set of variables, and considered different plausible models and their probability of being the best candidate for the observed data. Our results showed that compositional indicators (species richness and diversity) were mostly explained by environmental factors. Models for structural indicators (standing deadwood and stand complexity) had the worst fits and selection uncertainties, but did show significant associations with some configuration metrics. In general

  10. [Indoor air pollution by volatile organic compounds in large buildings: pollution levels and remaining issues after revision of the Act on Maintenance of Sanitation in Buildings in 2002].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakai, Kiyoshi; Kamijima, Michihiro; Shibata, Eiji; Ohno, Hiroyuki; Nakajima, Tamie

    2010-09-01

    This study aimed to clarify indoor air pollution levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), especially 2-ethyl-1-hexanol (2E1H) in large buildings after revising of the Act on Maintenance of Sanitation in Buildings in 2002. We measured indoor air VOC concentrations in 57 (97%) out of a total of 61 large buildings completed within one year in half of the area of Nagoya, Japan, from 2003 through 2007. Airborne concentrations of 13 carbonyl compounds were determined with diffusion samplers and high-performance liquid chromatography, and of the other 32 VOCs with diffusion samplers and gas chromatography with a mass spectrometer. Formaldehyde was detected in all samples of indoor air but the concentrations were lower than the indoor air quality standard value set in Japan (100 microg/m3). Geometric mean concentrations of the other major VOCs, namely toluene, xylene, ethylbenzene, styrene, p-dichlorobenzene and acetaldehyde were also low. 2E1H was found to be one of the predominating VOCs in indoor air of large buildings. A few rooms in a small number of buildings surveyed showed high concentrations of 2E1H, while low concentrations were observed in most rooms of those buildings as well as in other buildings. It was estimated that about 310 buildings had high indoor air pollution levels of 2E1H, with increase during the 5 years from 2003 in Japan. Indoor air pollution levels of VOCs in new large buildings are generally good, although a few rooms in a small number of buildings showed high concentrations in 2E1H, a possible causative chemical in sick building symptoms. Therefore, 2E1H needs particular attention as an important indoor air pollutant.

  11. Sensitivity analysis of local uncertainties in large break loss-of-coolant accident (LB-LOCA) thermo-mechanical simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arkoma, Asko, E-mail: asko.arkoma@vtt.fi; Ikonen, Timo

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • A sensitivity analysis using the data from EPR LB-LOCA simulations is done. • A procedure to analyze such complex data is outlined. • Both visual and quantitative methods are used. • Input factors related to core design are identified as most significant. - Abstract: In this paper, a sensitivity analysis for the data originating from a large break loss-of-coolant accident (LB-LOCA) analysis of an EPR-type nuclear power plant is presented. In the preceding LOCA analysis, the number of failing fuel rods in the accident was established (Arkoma et al., 2015). However, the underlying causes for rod failures were not addressed. It is essential to bring out which input parameters and boundary conditions have significance to the outcome of the analysis, i.e. the ballooning and burst of the rods. Due to complexity of the existing data, the first part of the analysis consists of defining the relevant input parameters for the sensitivity analysis. Then, selected sensitivity measures are calculated between the chosen input and output parameters. The ultimate goal is to develop a systematic procedure for the sensitivity analysis of statistical LOCA simulation that takes into account the various sources of uncertainties in the calculation chain. In the current analysis, the most relevant parameters with respect to the cladding integrity are the decay heat power during the transient, the thermal hydraulic conditions in the rod’s location in reactor, and the steady-state irradiation history of the rod. Meanwhile, the tolerances in fuel manufacturing parameters were found to have negligible effect on cladding deformation.

  12. Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

    2018-06-05

    The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

  13. Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

  14. Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating the Sampling-Related Uncertainty of Satellite Rainfall Averages Based on a Large Radar Data Set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor); Bell, Thomas L.; Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Wood, Eric F.

    2002-01-01

    The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.

  15. The role of social cost-benefit analysis in societal decision-making under large uncertainties with application to robbery at a cash depot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones-Lee, M.; Aven, T.

    2009-01-01

    Social cost-benefit analysis is a well-established method for guiding decisions about safety investments, particularly in situations in which it is possible to make accurate predictions of future performance. However, its direct applicability to situations involving large degrees of uncertainty is less obvious and this raises the question of the extent to which social cost-benefit analysis can provide a useful input to the decision framework that has been explicitly developed to deal with safety decisions in which uncertainty is a major factor, namely risk analysis. This is the main focus of the arguments developed in this paper. In particular, we provide new insights by examining the fundamentals of both approaches and our principal conclusion is that social cost-benefit analysis and risk analysis represent complementary input bases to the decision-making process, and even in the case of large uncertainties social cost-benefit analysis may provide very useful decision support. What is required is the establishment of a proper contextual framework which structures and gives adequate weight to the uncertainties. An application to the possibility of a robbery at a cash depot is examined as a practical example.

  16. Uncertainties in Nuclear Proliferation Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man-Sung; Park, Hyeon Seok

    2015-01-01

    There have been various efforts in the research community to understand the determinants of nuclear proliferation and develop quantitative tools to predict nuclear proliferation events. Such systematic approaches have shown the possibility to provide warning for the international community to prevent nuclear proliferation activities. However, there are still large debates for the robustness of the actual effect of determinants and projection results. Some studies have shown that several factors can cause uncertainties in previous quantitative nuclear proliferation modeling works. This paper analyzes the uncertainties in the past approaches and suggests future works in the view of proliferation history, analysis methods, and variable selection. The research community still lacks the knowledge for the source of uncertainty in current models. Fundamental problems in modeling will remain even other advanced modeling method is developed. Before starting to develop fancy model based on the time dependent proliferation determinants' hypothesis, using graph theory, etc., it is important to analyze the uncertainty of current model to solve the fundamental problems of nuclear proliferation modeling. The uncertainty from different proliferation history coding is small. Serious problems are from limited analysis methods and correlation among the variables. Problems in regression analysis and survival analysis cause huge uncertainties when using the same dataset, which decreases the robustness of the result. Inaccurate variables for nuclear proliferation also increase the uncertainty. To overcome these problems, further quantitative research should focus on analyzing the knowledge suggested on the qualitative nuclear proliferation studies

  17. Application of code scaling, applicability and uncertainty methodology to large break LOCA analysis of two loop PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mavko, B.; Stritar, A.; Prosek, A.

    1993-01-01

    In NED 119, No. 1 (May 1990) a series of six papers published by a Technical Program Group presented a new methodology for the safety evaluation of emergency core cooling systems in nuclear power plants. This paper describes the application of that new methodology to the LB LOCA analysis of the two loop Westinghouse power plant. Results of the original work were used wherever possible, so that the analysis was finished in less than one man year of work. Steam generator plugging level and safety injection flow rate were used as additional uncertainty parameters, which had not been used in the original work. The computer code RELAP5/MOD2 was used. Response surface was generated by the regression analysis and by the artificial neural network like Optimal Statistical Estimator method. Results were compared also to the analytical calculation. (orig.)

  18. Assessing the Roles of Regional Climate Uncertainty, Policy, and Economics on Future Risks to Water Stress: A Large-Ensemble Pilot Case for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K. M.; Gao, X.; Fant, C. W.; Blanc, E.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Arndt, C.; Prinn, R. G.; Reilly, J. M.; Jacoby, H.

    2013-12-01

    The fate of natural and managed water resources is controlled to varying degrees by interlinked energy, agricultural, and environmental systems, as well as the hydro-climate cycles. The need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional change calls for likelihood quantification of outcomes via the representation of uncertainty - to the fullest extent possible. A hybrid approach of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework provides probabilistic projections of regional climate change - generated in tandem with consistent socio-economic projections. A Water Resources System (WRS) then tracks water allocation and availability across these competing demands. As such, the IGSM-WRS is an integrated tool that provides quantitative insights on the risks and sustainability of water resources over large river basins. This pilot project focuses the IGSM-WRS on Southeast Asia (Figure 1). This region presents exceptional challenges toward sustainable water resources given its texture of basins that traverse and interconnect developing nations as well as large, ascending economies and populations - such as China and India. We employ the IGSM-WRS in a large ensemble of outcomes spanning hydro-climatic, economic, and policy uncertainties. For computational efficiency, a Gaussian Quadrature procedure sub-samples these outcomes (Figure 2). The IGSM-WRS impacts are quantified through frequency distributions of water stress changes. The results allow for interpretation of: the effects of policy measures; impacts on food production; and the value of design flexibility of infrastructure/institutions. An area of model development and exploration is the feedback of water-stress shocks to economic activity (i.e. GDP and land use). We discuss these further results (where possible) as well as other efforts to refine: uncertainty methods, greater basin-level and climate detail, and process-level representation glacial melt-water sources. Figure 1 Figure 2

  19. A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

    2015-05-01

    A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

  20. [PALEOPATHOLOGY OF HUMAN REMAINS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minozzi, Simona; Fornaciari, Gino

    2015-01-01

    Many diseases induce alterations in the human skeleton, leaving traces of their presence in ancient remains. Paleopathological examination of human remains not only allows the study of the history and evolution of the disease, but also the reconstruction of health conditions in the past populations. This paper describes the most interesting diseases observed in skeletal samples from the Roman Imperial Age necropoles found in urban and suburban areas of Rome during archaeological excavations in the last decades. The diseases observed were grouped into the following categories: articular diseases, traumas, infections, metabolic or nutritional diseases, congenital diseases and tumours, and some examples are reported for each group. Although extensive epidemiological investigation in ancient skeletal records is impossible, the palaeopathological study allowed to highlight the spread of numerous illnesses, many of which can be related to the life and health conditions of the Roman population.

  1. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  2. Quantifying the uncertainty in heritability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlotte, Nicholas A; Heckerman, David; Lippert, Christoph

    2014-05-01

    The use of mixed models to determine narrow-sense heritability and related quantities such as SNP heritability has received much recent attention. Less attention has been paid to the inherent variability in these estimates. One approach for quantifying variability in estimates of heritability is a frequentist approach, in which heritability is estimated using maximum likelihood and its variance is quantified through an asymptotic normal approximation. An alternative approach is to quantify the uncertainty in heritability through its Bayesian posterior distribution. In this paper, we develop the latter approach, make it computationally efficient and compare it to the frequentist approach. We show theoretically that, for a sufficiently large sample size and intermediate values of heritability, the two approaches provide similar results. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort, we show empirically that the two approaches can give different results and that the variance/uncertainty can remain large.

  3. Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasonova, Olga N.; Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

    2018-06-01

    Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006-2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

  4. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Kanal, LN

    1986-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

  5. A stochastic mathematical model to locate field hospitals under disruption uncertainty for large-scale disaster preparedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nezir Aydin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we consider field hospital location decisions for emergency treatment points in response to large scale disasters. Specifically, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that determines the number and locations of field hospitals and the allocation of injured victims to these field hospitals. Our model considers the locations as well as the failings of the existing public hospitals while deciding on the location of field hospitals that are anticipated to be opened. The model that we developed is a variant of the P-median location model and it integrates capacity restrictions both on field hospitals that are planned to be opened and the disruptions that occur in existing public hospitals. We conducted experiments to demonstrate how the proposed model can be utilized in practice in a real life problem case scenario. Results show the effects of the failings of existing hospitals, the level of failure probability and the capacity of projected field hospitals to deal with the assessment of any given emergency treatment system’s performance. Crucially, it also specifically provides an assessment on the average distance within which a victim needs to be transferred in order to be treated properly and then from this assessment, the proportion of total satisfied demand is then calculated.

  6. Validation/Uncertainty Quantification for Large Eddy Simulations of the heat flux in the Tangentially Fired Oxy-Coal Alstom Boiler Simulation Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, P.J.; Eddings, E.G.; Ring, T.; Thornock, J.; Draper, T.; Isaac, B.; Rezeai, D.; Toth, P.; Wu, Y.; Kelly, K.

    2014-08-01

    The objective of this task is to produce predictive capability with quantified uncertainty bounds for the heat flux in commercial-scale, tangentially fired, oxy-coal boilers. Validation data came from the Alstom Boiler Simulation Facility (BSF) for tangentially fired, oxy-coal operation. This task brings together experimental data collected under Alstom’s DOE project for measuring oxy-firing performance parameters in the BSF with this University of Utah project for large eddy simulation (LES) and validation/uncertainty quantification (V/UQ). The Utah work includes V/UQ with measurements in the single-burner facility where advanced strategies for O2 injection can be more easily controlled and data more easily obtained. Highlights of the work include: • Simulations of Alstom’s 15 megawatt (MW) BSF, exploring the uncertainty in thermal boundary conditions. A V/UQ analysis showed consistency between experimental results and simulation results, identifying uncertainty bounds on the quantities of interest for this system (Subtask 9.1) • A simulation study of the University of Utah’s oxy-fuel combustor (OFC) focused on heat flux (Subtask 9.2). A V/UQ analysis was used to show consistency between experimental and simulation results. • Measurement of heat flux and temperature with new optical diagnostic techniques and comparison with conventional measurements (Subtask 9.3). Various optical diagnostics systems were created to provide experimental data to the simulation team. The final configuration utilized a mid-wave infrared (MWIR) camera to measure heat flux and temperature, which was synchronized with a high-speed, visible camera to utilize two-color pyrometry to measure temperature and soot concentration. • Collection of heat flux and temperature measurements in the University of Utah’s OFC for use is subtasks 9.2 and 9.3 (Subtask 9.4). Several replicates were carried to better assess the experimental error. Experiments were specifically designed for the

  7. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  8. Approaches in highly parameterized inversion—PEST++ Version 3, a Parameter ESTimation and uncertainty analysis software suite optimized for large environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welter, David E.; White, Jeremy T.; Hunt, Randall J.; Doherty, John E.

    2015-09-18

    The PEST++ Version 1 object-oriented parameter estimation code is here extended to Version 3 to incorporate additional algorithms and tools to further improve support for large and complex environmental modeling problems. PEST++ Version 3 includes the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) algorithm for nonlinear parameter estimation, Tikhonov regularization, integrated linear-based uncertainty quantification, options of integrated TCP/IP based parallel run management or external independent run management by use of a Version 2 update of the GENIE Version 1 software code, and utilities for global sensitivity analyses. The Version 3 code design is consistent with PEST++ Version 1 and continues to be designed to lower the barriers of entry for users as well as developers while providing efficient and optimized algorithms capable of accommodating large, highly parameterized inverse problems. As such, this effort continues the original focus of (1) implementing the most popular and powerful features of the PEST software suite in a fashion that is easy for novice or experienced modelers to use and (2) developing a software framework that is easy to extend.

  9. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  10. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  11. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  12. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    magnitude and bias, and to test how uncertainty depended on the density of the raingauge network and flow gauging station characteristics. The uncertainties were sometimes large (i.e. typical intervals of ±10-40% relative uncertainty) and highly variable between signatures. Uncertainty in the mean discharge was around ±10% for both catchments, while signatures describing the flow variability had much higher uncertainties in the Mahurangi where there was a fast rainfall-runoff response and greater high-flow rating uncertainty. Event and total runoff ratios had uncertainties from ±10% to ±15% depending on the number of rain gauges used; precipitation uncertainty was related to interpolation rather than point uncertainty. Uncertainty distributions in these signatures were skewed, and meant that differences in signature values between these catchments were often not significant. We hope that this study encourages others to use signatures in a way that is robust to data uncertainty.

  13. Predicting watershed sediment yields after wildland fire with the InVEST sediment retention model at large geographic extent in the western USA: accuracy and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankey, J. B.; Kreitler, J.; McVay, J.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Vaillant, N.; Lowe, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Wildland fire is a primary threat to watersheds that can impact water supply through increased sedimentation, water quality decline, and change the timing and amount of runoff leading to increased risk from flood and sediment natural hazards. It is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world to improve understanding of how changing fire frequency, extent, and location, in conjunction with fuel treatments will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize vulnerability of burned watersheds to erosion and sedimentation. The InVEST tools are GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., RUSLE -Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. We evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured post-fire sedimentation rates available for many watersheds in different rainfall regimes throughout the western USA from an existing, large USGS database of post-fire sediment yield [synthesized in Moody J, Martin D (2009) Synthesis of sediment yields after wildland fire in different rainfall regimes in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 96-115]. The ultimate goal of this work is to calibrate and implement the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield as a function of future landscape heterogeneity predicted by wildfire simulations, and future landscape fuel treatment scenarios, within watersheds.

  14. Quantifying reactor safety margins: Application of code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty evaluation methodology to a large-break, loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyack, B.; Duffey, R.; Wilson, G.; Griffith, P.; Lellouche, G.; Levy, S.; Rohatgi, U.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

    1989-12-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued a revised rule for loss-of-coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (ECCS) analysis of light water reactors to allow the use of best-estimate computer codes in safety analysis as an option. A key feature of this option requires the licensee to quantify the uncertainty of the calculations and include that uncertainty when comparing the calculated results with acceptance limits provided in 10 CFR Part 50. To support the revised ECCS rule and illustrate its application, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated an uncertainty evaluation methodology called code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty (CSAU). The CSAU methodology and an example application described in this report demonstrate that uncertainties in complex phenomena can be quantified. The methodology is structured, traceable, and practical, as is needed in the regulatory arena. The methodology is systematic and comprehensive as it addresses and integrates the scenario, experiments, code, and plant to resolve questions concerned with: (a) code capability to scale-up processes from test facility to full-scale nuclear power plants; (b) code applicability to safety studies of a postulated accident scenario in a specified nuclear power plant; and (c) quantifying uncertainties of calculated results. 127 refs., 55 figs., 40 tabs

  15. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  16. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  17. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  18. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  19. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  20. Justification for recommended uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.

    2007-01-01

    The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1

  1. Citizen Candidates Under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Eguia, Jon X.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we make two contributions to the growing literature on "citizen-candidate" models of representative democracy. First, we add uncertainty about the total vote count. We show that in a society with a large electorate, where the outcome of the election is uncertain and where winning candidates receive a large reward from holding office, there will be a two-candidate equilibrium and no equilibria with a single candidate. Second, we introduce a new concept of equilibrium, which we te...

  2. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.

    1996-09-01

    deterministic case, and the uncertainty bands did not always overlap. This suggest that there are considerable model uncertainties present, which were not considered in this study. Concerning possible constraints in the application domain of different models, the results of this exercise suggest that if only the evolution of the root zone concentration is to be predicted, all of the studied models give comparable results. However, if also the flux to the groundwater is to be predicted, then a considerably increased amount of detail is needed concerning the model and the parameterization. This applies to the hydrological as well as the transport modelling. The difference in model predictions and the magnitude of uncertainty was quite small for some of the end-points predicted, while for others it could span many orders of magnitude. Of special importance were end-points where delay in the soil was involved, e.g. release to the groundwater. In such cases the influence of radioactive decay gave rise to strongly non-linear effects. The work in the subgroup has provided many valuable insights on the effects of model simplifications, e.g. discretization in the model, averaging of the time varying input parameters and the assignment of uncertainties to parameters. The conclusions that have been drawn concerning these are primarily valid for the studied scenario. However, we believe that they to a large extent also are generally applicable. The subgroup have had many opportunities to study the pitfalls involved in model comparison. The intention was to provide a well defined scenario for the subgroup, but despite several iterations misunderstandings and ambiguities remained. The participants have been forced to scrutinize their models to try to explain differences in the predictions and most, if not all, of the participants have improved their models as a result of this

  3. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  4. Uncertainties in fission-product decay-heat calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oyamatsu, K.; Ohta, H.; Miyazono, T.; Tasaka, K. [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    The present precision of the aggregate decay heat calculations is studied quantitatively for 50 fissioning systems. In this evaluation, nuclear data and their uncertainty data are taken from ENDF/B-VI nuclear data library and those which are not available in this library are supplemented by a theoretical consideration. An approximate method is proposed to simplify the evaluation of the uncertainties in the aggregate decay heat calculations so that we can point out easily nuclei which cause large uncertainties in the calculated decay heat values. In this paper, we attempt to clarify the justification of the approximation which was not very clear at the early stage of the study. We find that the aggregate decay heat uncertainties for minor actinides such as Am and Cm isotopes are 3-5 times as large as those for {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu. The recommended values by Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) were given for 3 major fissioning systems, {sup 235}U(t), {sup 239}Pu(t) and {sup 238}U(f). The present results are consistent with the AESJ values for these systems although the two evaluations used different nuclear data libraries and approximations. Therefore, the present results can also be considered to supplement the uncertainty values for the remaining 17 fissioning systems in JNDC2, which were not treated in the AESJ evaluation. Furthermore, we attempt to list nuclear data which cause large uncertainties in decay heat calculations for the future revision of decay and yield data libraries. (author)

  5. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  6. Dealing with exploration uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capen, E.

    1992-01-01

    Exploration for oil and gas should fulfill the most adventurous in their quest for excitement and surprise. This paper tries to cover that tall order. The authors will touch on the magnitude of the uncertainty (which is far greater than in most other businesses), the effects of not knowing target sizes very well, how to build uncertainty into analyses naturally, how to tie reserves and chance estimates to economics, and how to look at the portfolio effect of an exploration program. With no apologies, the authors will be using a different language for some readers - the language of uncertainty, which means probability and statistics. These tools allow one to combine largely subjective exploration information with the more analytical data from the engineering and economic side

  7. Climate Certainties and Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morel, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    In issue 380 of Futuribles in December 2011, Antonin Pottier analysed in detail the workings of what is today termed 'climate scepticism' - namely the propensity of certain individuals to contest the reality of climate change on the basis of pseudo-scientific arguments. He emphasized particularly that what fuels the debate on climate change is, largely, the degree of uncertainty inherent in the consequences to be anticipated from observation of the facts, not the description of the facts itself. In his view, the main aim of climate sceptics is to block the political measures for combating climate change. However, since they do not admit to this political posture, they choose instead to deny the scientific reality. This month, Futuribles complements this socio-psychological analysis of climate-sceptical discourse with an - in this case, wholly scientific - analysis of what we know (or do not know) about climate change on our planet. Pierre Morel gives a detailed account of the state of our knowledge in the climate field and what we are able to predict in the medium/long-term. After reminding us of the influence of atmospheric meteorological processes on the climate, he specifies the extent of global warming observed since 1850 and the main origin of that warming, as revealed by the current state of knowledge: the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. He then describes the changes in meteorological regimes (showing also the limits of climate simulation models), the modifications of hydrological regimes, and also the prospects for rises in sea levels. He also specifies the mechanisms that may potentially amplify all these phenomena and the climate disasters that might ensue. Lastly, he shows what are the scientific data that cannot be disregarded, the consequences of which are now inescapable (melting of the ice-caps, rises in sea level etc.), the only remaining uncertainty in this connection being the date at which these things will happen. 'In this

  8. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  9. Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor); Saxena, Abhinav (Inventor); Celaya, Jose R. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

  10. And the Dead Remain Behind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Read

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In most cultures the dead and their living relatives are held in a dialogic relationship. The dead have made it clear, while living, what they expect from their descendants. The living, for their part, wish to honour the tombs of their ancestors; at the least, to keep the graves of the recent dead from disrepair. Despite the strictures, the living can fail their responsibilities, for example, by migration to foreign countries. The peripatetic Chinese are one of the few cultures able to overcome the dilemma of the wanderer or the exile. With the help of a priest, an Australian Chinese migrant may summon the soul of an ancestor from an Asian grave to a Melbourne temple, where the spirit, though removed from its earthly vessel, will rest and remain at peace. Amongst cultures in which such practices are not culturally appropriate, to fail to honour the family dead can be exquisitely painful. Violence is the cause of most failure.

  11. Red Assembly: the work remains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Witz

    installed. What to do at this limit, at the transgressive encounter between saying yes and no to history, remains the challenge. It is the very challenge of what insistently remains.

  12. Green business will remain green

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcan, P.

    2008-01-01

    It all started with two words. Climate change. The carbon dioxide trading scheme, which was the politicians' idea on solving the number one global problem, followed. Four years ago, when the project was begun, there was no data for project initiation. Quotas for polluters mainly from energy production and other energy demanding industries were distributed based on spreadsheets, maximum output and expected future development of economies. Slovak companies have had a chance to profit from these arrangements since 2005. Many of them took advantage of the situation and turned the excessive quotas into an extraordinary profit which often reached hundreds of million Sk. The fact that the price of free quotas offered for sale dropped basically to 0 in 2006 only proved that the initial distribution was too generous. And the market reacted to the first official measurements of emissions. Slovak companies also contributed to this development. However, when planning the maximum emission volumes for 2008-2012 period, in spite of the fact that actual data were available, their expectations were not realistic. A glance at the figures in the proposal of the Ministry of Environment is sufficient to realize that there will be no major change in the future. And so for many Slovak companies business with a green future will remain green for the next five years. The state decided to give to selected companies even more free space as far as emissions are concerned. The most privileged companies can expect quotas increased by tens of percent. (author)

  13. Silicon photonics: some remaining challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, G. T.; Topley, R.; Khokhar, A. Z.; Thompson, D. J.; Stanković, S.; Reynolds, S.; Chen, X.; Soper, N.; Mitchell, C. J.; Hu, Y.; Shen, L.; Martinez-Jimenez, G.; Healy, N.; Mailis, S.; Peacock, A. C.; Nedeljkovic, M.; Gardes, F. Y.; Soler Penades, J.; Alonso-Ramos, C.; Ortega-Monux, A.; Wanguemert-Perez, G.; Molina-Fernandez, I.; Cheben, P.; Mashanovich, G. Z.

    2016-03-01

    This paper discusses some of the remaining challenges for silicon photonics, and how we at Southampton University have approached some of them. Despite phenomenal advances in the field of Silicon Photonics, there are a number of areas that still require development. For short to medium reach applications, there is a need to improve the power consumption of photonic circuits such that inter-chip, and perhaps intra-chip applications are viable. This means that yet smaller devices are required as well as thermally stable devices, and multiple wavelength channels. In turn this demands smaller, more efficient modulators, athermal circuits, and improved wavelength division multiplexers. The debate continues as to whether on-chip lasers are necessary for all applications, but an efficient low cost laser would benefit many applications. Multi-layer photonics offers the possibility of increasing the complexity and effectiveness of a given area of chip real estate, but it is a demanding challenge. Low cost packaging (in particular, passive alignment of fibre to waveguide), and effective wafer scale testing strategies, are also essential for mass market applications. Whilst solutions to these challenges would enhance most applications, a derivative technology is emerging, that of Mid Infra-Red (MIR) silicon photonics. This field will build on existing developments, but will require key enhancements to facilitate functionality at longer wavelengths. In common with mainstream silicon photonics, significant developments have been made, but there is still much left to do. Here we summarise some of our recent work towards wafer scale testing, passive alignment, multiplexing, and MIR silicon photonics technology.

  14. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  15. Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves - Application to a chalk aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Wildemeersch, Samuel; Therrien, René; Dassargues, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for different geographical and climatic contexts. However, most studies have either not estimated the uncertainty around projected impacts or have limited the analysis to the uncertainty related to climate models. In this study, the uncertainties around impact projections from several sources (climate models, natural variability of the weather, hydrological model calibration) are calculated and compared for the Geer catchment (465 km2) in Belgium. We use a surface-subsurface integrated model implemented using the finite element code HydroGeoSphere, coupled with climate change scenarios (2010-2085) and the UCODE_2005 inverse model, to assess the uncertainty related to the calibration of the hydrological model. This integrated model provides a more realistic representation of the water exchanges between surface and subsurface domains and constrains more the calibration with the use of both surface and subsurface observed data. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed on predictions. The linear uncertainty analysis is approximate for this nonlinear system, but it provides some measure of uncertainty for computationally demanding models. Results show that, for the Geer catchment, the most important uncertainty is related to calibration of the hydrological model. The total uncertainty associated with the prediction of groundwater levels remains large. By the end of the century, however, the uncertainty becomes smaller than the predicted decline in groundwater levels.

  16. Implications of nuclear data uncertainties to reactor design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greebler, P.; Hutchins, B.A.; Cowan, C.L.

    1970-01-01

    Uncertainties in nuclear data require significant allowances to be made in the design and the operating conditions of reactor cores and of shielded-reactor-plant and fuel-processing systems. These allowances result in direct cost increases due to overdesign of components and equipment and reduced core and fuel operating performance. Compromising the allowances for data uncertainties has indirect cost implications due to increased risks of failure to meet plant and fuel performance objectives, with warrantees involved in some cases, and to satisfy licensed safety requirements. Fast breeders are the most sensitive power reactors to the uncertainties in nuclear data over the neutron energy range of interest for fission reactors, and this paper focuses on the implications of the data uncertainties to design and operation of fast breeder reactors and fuel-processing systems. The current status of uncertainty in predicted physics parameters due to data uncertainties is reviewed and compared with the situation in 1966 and that projected for within the next two years due to anticipated data improvements. Implications of the uncertainties in the predicted physics parameters to design and operation are discussed for both a near-term prototype or demonstration breeder plant (∼300 MW(e)) and a longer-term large (∼1000 MW(e)) plant. Significant improvements in the nuclear data have been made during the past three years, the most important of these to fast power reactors being the 239 Pu alpha below 15 keV. The most important remaining specific data uncertainties are illustrated by their individual contributions to the computational uncertainty of selected physics parameters, and recommended priorities and accuracy requirements for improved data are presented

  17. Uncertainty Evaluation of Best Estimate Calculation Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, H.

    2006-01-01

    Efforts are underway in Germany to perform analysis using best estimate computer codes and to include uncertainty evaluation in licensing. The German Reactor Safety Commission (RSK) issued a recommendation to perform uncertainty analysis in loss of coolant accident safety analyses (LOCA), recently. A more general requirement is included in a draft revision of the German Nuclear Regulation which is an activity of the German Ministry of Environment and Reactor Safety (BMU). According to the recommendation of the German RSK to perform safety analyses for LOCA in licensing the following deterministic requirements have still to be applied: Most unfavourable single failure, Unavailability due to preventive maintenance, Break location, Break size and break type, Double ended break, 100 percent through 200 percent, Large, medium and small break, Loss of off-site power, Core power (at accident initiation the most unfavourable conditions and values have to be assumed which may occur under normal operation taking into account the set-points of integral power and power density control. Measurement and calibration errors can be considered statistically), Time of fuel cycle. Analysis using best estimate codes with evaluation of uncertainties is the only way to quantify conservatisms with regard to code models and uncertainties of plant, fuel parameters and decay heat. This is especially the case for approaching licensing limits, e.g. due to power up-rates, higher burn-up and higher enrichment. Broader use of best estimate analysis is therefore envisaged in the future. Since some deterministic unfavourable assumptions regarding availability of NPP systems are still used, some conservatism in best-estimate analyses remains. Methods of uncertainty analyses have been developed and applied by the vendor Framatome ANP as well as by GRS in Germany. The GRS development was sponsored by the German Ministry of Economy and Labour (BMWA). (author)

  18. Large-scale hydrological modeling for calculating water stress indices: implications of improved spatiotemporal resolution, surface-groundwater differentiation, and uncertainty characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, Laura; Venkatesh, Aranya; Karuppiah, Ramkumar; Pfister, Stephan

    2015-04-21

    Physical water scarcities can be described by water stress indices. These are often determined at an annual scale and a watershed level; however, such scales mask seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity within a watershed. In order to account for this level of detail, first and foremost, water availability estimates must be improved and refined. State-of-the-art global hydrological models such as WaterGAP and UNH/GRDC have previously been unable to reliably reflect water availability at the subbasin scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested as an alternative to global models, using the case study of the Mississippi watershed. While SWAT clearly outperformed the global models at the scale of a large watershed, it was judged to be unsuitable for global scale simulations due to the high calibration efforts required. The results obtained in this study show that global assessments miss out on key aspects related to upstream/downstream relations and monthly fluctuations, which are important both for the characterization of water scarcity in the Mississippi watershed and for water footprints. Especially in arid regions, where scarcity is high, these models provide unsatisfying results.

  19. Uncertainty and measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, P.T.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

  20. Balancing uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horton, S.G.

    1984-01-01

    The author presents a system planning perspective on how Ontario Hydro is viewing the future, and where nuclear power fits into that future. Before the 1980s Ontario experienced a steady seven percent per year growth in power demand. Shifting patterns of energy demand have made planning much more difficult. In the early 80s growth in demand fell short of predictions. It is hard to tell what level of demand to plan for in the future. With respect to any energy option, a utility planner or board of directors would want to know when it will be delivered, what it will cost when it is delivered, what it will cost to operate, how long it will last as an economic energy producer, and how all of these factors will be affected by future changes. Ontario Hydro's studies show that nuclear power continues to be the preferred option for large blocks of base load capacity. By 1996 Ontario Hydro will have saved about 10 billion 1983 dollars by using nuclear power. The utility continues to study both sides of the supply-demand equation, looking at conservation as an alternative to constructing new generating facilities and attempting to become aware of shifts in demand trends as soon as they happen

  1. Model uncertainties in top-quark physics

    CERN Document Server

    Seidel, Markus

    2014-01-01

    The ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are studying the top quark in pp collisions at 7 and 8 TeV. Due to the large integrated luminosity, precision measurements of production cross-sections and properties are often limited by systematic uncertainties. An overview of the modeling uncertainties for simulated events is given in this report.

  2. Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermes, N.; Lensink, R.

    2000-01-01

    This paper shows that policy uncertainty, measured by the uncertainty of budget deficits, tax payments, government consumption and the inflation rate, has a statistically significant positive impact on capital flight. This result remains robust after having applied stability tests.

  3. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  4. An advanced joint inversion system for CO2 storage modeling with large date sets for characterization and real-time monitoring-enhancing storage performance and reducing failure risks under uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kitanidis, Peter [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2016-04-30

    As large-scale, commercial storage projects become operational, the problem of utilizing information from diverse sources becomes more critically important. In this project, we developed, tested, and applied an advanced joint data inversion system for CO2 storage modeling with large data sets for use in site characterization and real-time monitoring. Emphasis was on the development of advanced and efficient computational algorithms for joint inversion of hydro-geophysical data, coupled with state-of-the-art forward process simulations. The developed system consists of (1) inversion tools using characterization data, such as 3D seismic survey (amplitude images), borehole log and core data, as well as hydraulic, tracer and thermal tests before CO2 injection, (2) joint inversion tools for updating the geologic model with the distribution of rock properties, thus reducing uncertainty, using hydro-geophysical monitoring data, and (3) highly efficient algorithms for directly solving the dense or sparse linear algebra systems derived from the joint inversion. The system combines methods from stochastic analysis, fast linear algebra, and high performance computing. The developed joint inversion tools have been tested through synthetic CO2 storage examples.

  5. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

  6. Nuclear Physical Uncertainties in Modeling X-Ray Bursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regis, Eric; Amthor, A. Matthew

    2017-09-01

    Type I x-ray bursts occur when a neutron star accretes material from the surface of another star in a compact binary star system. For certain accretion rates and material compositions, much of the nuclear material is burned in short, explosive bursts. Using a one-dimensional stellar model, Kepler, and a comprehensive nuclear reaction rate library, ReacLib, we have simulated chains of type I x-ray bursts. Unfortunately, there are large remaining uncertainties in the nuclear reaction rates involved, since many of the isotopes reacting are unstable and have not yet been studied experimentally. Some individual reactions, when varied within their estimated uncertainty, alter the light curves dramatically. This limits our ability to understand the structure of the neutron star. Previous studies have looked at the effects of individual reaction rate uncertainties. We have applied a Monte Carlo method ``-simultaneously varying a set of reaction rates'' -in order to probe the expected uncertainty in x-ray burst behaviour due to the total uncertainty in all nuclear reaction rates. Furthermore, we aim to discover any nonlinear effects due to the coupling between different reaction rates. Early results show clear non-linear effects. This research was made possible by NSF-DUE Grant 1317446, BUScholars Program.

  7. Uncertainty propagation through dynamic models of assemblies of mechanical structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daouk, Sami

    2016-01-01

    When studying the behaviour of mechanical systems, mathematical models and structural parameters are usually considered deterministic. Return on experience shows however that these elements are uncertain in most cases, due to natural variability or lack of knowledge. Therefore, quantifying the quality and reliability of the numerical model of an industrial assembly remains a major question in low-frequency dynamics. The purpose of this thesis is to improve the vibratory design of bolted assemblies through setting up a dynamic connector model that takes account of different types and sources of uncertainty on stiffness parameters, in a simple, efficient and exploitable in industrial context. This work has been carried out in the framework of the SICODYN project, led by EDF R and D, that aims to characterise and quantify, numerically and experimentally, the uncertainties in the dynamic behaviour of bolted industrial assemblies. Comparative studies of several numerical methods of uncertainty propagation demonstrate the advantage of using the Lack-Of-Knowledge theory. An experimental characterisation of uncertainties in bolted structures is performed on a dynamic test rig and on an industrial assembly. The propagation of many small and large uncertainties through different dynamic models of mechanical assemblies leads to the assessment of the efficiency of the Lack-Of-Knowledge theory and its applicability in an industrial environment. (author)

  8. Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hessling, J P

    2011-01-01

    The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result

  9. Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elise Payzan-LeNestour

    Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.

  10. Inventories and sales uncertainty\\ud

    OpenAIRE

    Caglayan, M.; Maioli, S.; Mateut, S.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the empirical linkages between sales uncertainty and firms´ inventory investment behavior while controlling for firms´ financial strength. Using large panels of manufacturing firms from several European countries we find that higher sales uncertainty leads to larger stocks of inventories. We also identify an indirect effect of sales uncertainty on inventory accumulation through the financial strength of firms. Our results provide evidence that financial strength mitigates the a...

  11. Orientation and uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, H.P.; Hennen, L.

    1990-01-01

    The authors report on the results of three representative surveys that made a closer inquiry into perceptions and valuations of information and information sources concering Chernobyl. If turns out that the information sources are generally considered little trustworthy. This was generally attributable to the interpretation of the events being tied to attitudes in the atmonic energy issue. The greatest credit was given to television broadcasting. The authors summarize their discourse as follows: There is good reason to interpret the widespread uncertainty after Chernobyl as proof of the fact that large parts of the population are prepared and willing to assume a critical stance towards information and prefer to draw their information from various sources representing different positions. (orig.) [de

  12. Instrument uncertainty predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-07-01

    The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

  13. The state of the art of the impact of sampling uncertainty on measurement uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, V. J.; Oliveira, E. C.

    2018-03-01

    The measurement uncertainty is a parameter that marks the reliability and can be divided into two large groups: sampling and analytical variations. Analytical uncertainty is a controlled process, performed in the laboratory. The same does not occur with the sampling uncertainty, which, because it faces several obstacles and there is no clarity on how to perform the procedures, has been neglected, although it is admittedly indispensable to the measurement process. This paper aims at describing the state of the art of sampling uncertainty and at assessing its relevance to measurement uncertainty.

  14. Correlated uncertainties in integral data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCracken, A.K.

    1978-01-01

    The use of correlated uncertainties in calculational data is shown in cases investigated to lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of calculated quantities of importance to reactor design. It is stressed however that such reductions are likely to be important in a minority of cases of practical interest. The effect of uncertainties in detector cross-sections is considered and is seen to be, in some cases, of equal importance to that in the data used in calculations. Numerical investigations have been limited by the sparse information available on data correlations; some comparisons made of these data reveal quite large inconsistencies for both detector cross-sections and cross-section of interest for reactor calculations

  15. Uncertainty Quantification in Numerical Aerodynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-05-16

    We consider uncertainty quantification problem in aerodynamic simulations. We identify input uncertainties, classify them, suggest an appropriate statistical model and, finally, estimate propagation of these uncertainties into the solution (pressure, velocity and density fields as well as the lift and drag coefficients). The deterministic problem under consideration is a compressible transonic Reynolds-averaged Navier-Strokes flow around an airfoil with random/uncertain data. Input uncertainties include: uncertain angle of attack, the Mach number, random perturbations in the airfoil geometry, mesh, shock location, turbulence model and parameters of this turbulence model. This problem requires efficient numerical/statistical methods since it is computationally expensive, especially for the uncertainties caused by random geometry variations which involve a large number of variables. In numerical section we compares five methods, including quasi-Monte Carlo quadrature, polynomial chaos with coefficients determined by sparse quadrature and gradient-enhanced version of Kriging, radial basis functions and point collocation polynomial chaos, in their efficiency in estimating statistics of aerodynamic performance upon random perturbation to the airfoil geometry [D.Liu et al \\'17]. For modeling we used the TAU code, developed in DLR, Germany.

  16. Uncertainty quantification theory, implementation, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Ralph C

    2014-01-01

    The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers ca...

  17. Report on the uncertainty methods study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-06-01

    The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced 'best estimate' thermal-hydraulic codes: the Pisa method (based on extrapolation from integral experiments) and four methods identifying and combining input uncertainties. Three of these, the GRS, IPSN and ENUSA methods, use subjective probability distributions, and one, the AEAT method, performs a bounding analysis. Each method has been used to calculate the uncertainty in specified parameters for the LSTF SB-CL-18 5% cold leg small break LOCA experiment in the ROSA-IV Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). The uncertainty analysis was conducted essentially blind and the participants did not use experimental measurements from the test as input apart from initial and boundary conditions. Participants calculated uncertainty ranges for experimental parameters including pressurizer pressure, primary circuit inventory and clad temperature (at a specified position) as functions of time

  18. Reusable launch vehicle model uncertainties impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiaye; Mu, Rongjun; Zhang, Xin; Deng, Yanpeng

    2018-03-01

    Reusable launch vehicle(RLV) has the typical characteristics of complex aerodynamic shape and propulsion system coupling, and the flight environment is highly complicated and intensely changeable. So its model has large uncertainty, which makes the nominal system quite different from the real system. Therefore, studying the influences caused by the uncertainties on the stability of the control system is of great significance for the controller design. In order to improve the performance of RLV, this paper proposes the approach of analyzing the influence of the model uncertainties. According to the typical RLV, the coupling dynamic and kinematics models are built. Then different factors that cause uncertainties during building the model are analyzed and summed up. After that, the model uncertainties are expressed according to the additive uncertainty model. Choosing the uncertainties matrix's maximum singular values as the boundary model, and selecting the uncertainties matrix's norm to show t how much the uncertainty factors influence is on the stability of the control system . The simulation results illustrate that the inertial factors have the largest influence on the stability of the system, and it is necessary and important to take the model uncertainties into consideration before the designing the controller of this kind of aircraft( like RLV, etc).

  19. Uncertainty analysis guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  20. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  1. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

  2. Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to bias in model formulation and imprecision in parameter estimation. The magnitude of uncertainty is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, health risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible. 41 references, 4 figures, 4 tables

  3. Axial power monitoring uncertainty in the Savannah River Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Losey, D.C.; Revolinski, S.M.

    1990-01-01

    The results of this analysis quantified the uncertainty associated with monitoring the Axial Power Shape (APS) in the Savannah River Reactors. Thermocouples at each assembly flow exit map the radial power distribution and are the primary means of monitoring power in these reactors. The remaining uncertainty in power monitoring is associated with the relative axial power distribution. The APS is monitored by seven sensors that respond to power on each of nine vertical Axial Power Monitor (APM) rods. Computation of the APS uncertainty, for the reactor power limits analysis, started with a large database of APM rod measurements spanning several years of reactor operation. A computer algorithm was used to randomly select a sample of APSs which were input to a code. This code modeled the thermal-hydraulic performance of a single fuel assembly during a design basis Loss-of Coolant Accident. The assembly power limit at Onset of Significant Voiding was computed for each APS. The output was a distribution of expected assembly power limits that was adjusted to account for the biases caused by instrumentation error and by measuring 7 points rather than a continuous APS. Statistical analysis of the final assembly power limit distribution showed that reducing reactor power by approximately 3% was sufficient to account for APS variation. This data confirmed expectations that the assembly exit thermocouples provide all information needed for monitoring core power. The computational analysis results also quantified the contribution to power limits of the various uncertainties such as instrumentation error

  4. Roughness coefficient and its uncertainty in gravel-bed river

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Sung Kim

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Manning's roughness coefficient was estimated for a gravel-bed river reach using field measurements of water level and discharge, and the applicability of various methods used for estimation of the roughness coefficient was evaluated. Results show that the roughness coefficient tends to decrease with increasing discharge and water depth, and over a certain range it appears to remain constant. Comparison of roughness coefficients calculated by field measurement data with those estimated by other methods shows that, although the field-measured values provide approximate roughness coefficients for relatively large discharge, there seems to be rather high uncertainty due to the difference in resultant values. For this reason, uncertainty related to the roughness coefficient was analyzed in terms of change in computed variables. On average, a 20% increase of the roughness coefficient causes a 7% increase in the water depth and an 8% decrease in velocity, but there may be about a 15% increase in the water depth and an equivalent decrease in velocity for certain cross-sections in the study reach. Finally, the validity of estimated roughness coefficient based on field measurements was examined. A 10% error in discharge measurement may lead to more than 10% uncertainty in roughness coefficient estimation, but corresponding uncertainty in computed water depth and velocity is reduced to approximately 5%. Conversely, the necessity for roughness coefficient estimation by field measurement is confirmed.

  5. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  6. DS02 uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

    2005-01-01

    In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

  7. Ghost Remains After Black Hole Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-05-01

    it has died," said co-author Scott Chapman, also of Cambridge University. "This means we don't have to catch the black holes in the act to witness the big impact they have." This is the first X-ray ghost ever seen after the demise of radio-bright jets. Astronomers have observed extensive X-ray emission with a similar origin, but only from galaxies with radio emission on large scales, signifying continued eruptions. In HDF 130, only a point source is detected in radio images, coinciding with the massive elliptical galaxy seen in its optical image. This radio source indicates the presence of a growing supermassive black hole. People Who Read This Also Read... Milky Way's Super-efficient Particle Accelerators Caught in The Act NASA Joins "Around the World in 80 Telescopes" Celebrate the International Year of Astronomy Galaxies Coming of Age in Cosmic Blobs "This result hints that the X-ray sky should be littered with such ghosts," said co-author Caitlin Casey, also of Cambridge, "especially if black hole eruptions are as common as we think they are in the early Universe." The power contained in the black hole eruption was likely to be considerable, equivalent to about a billion supernovas. The energy is dumped into the surroundings and transports and heats the gas. "Even after the ghost disappears, most of the energy from the black hole's eruption remains", said Fabian. "Because they're so powerful, these eruptions can have profound effects lasting for billions of years." The details of Chandra's data of HDF 130 helped secure its true nature. For example, in X-rays, HDF 130 has a cigar-like shape that extends for some 2.2 million light years. The linear shape of the X-ray source is consistent with the shape of radio jets and not with that of a galaxy cluster, which is expected to be circular. The energy distribution of the X-rays is also consistent with the interpretation of an X-ray ghost. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., manages the Chandra

  8. Managing Innovation In View Of The Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Igorevich Mosalev

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Study of the problems of uncertainty in innovation is at present the most up to date. Approaches to its definition, arranged primarily on the assumption and include the known parameters, which essentially is a game approach to the assessment. Address specific issues of governance of innovation in accounting uncertainty still remains open and the most relevant, especially when the innovation represented by one of the drivers of growth of national economies. This paper presents a methodological approach to determining the degree of uncertainty and an approach to the management of innovation through a system of mathematical modeling on the criterion of gross errors.

  9. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  10. Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.

  11. Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.

    1988-01-01

    Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references

  12. Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Benjamin S; Regan, Helen M; Possingham, Hugh P; McCarthy, Michael A

    2006-01-01

    Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

  13. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for the Hiroshima dosimetry reevaluation effort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broadhead, B.L.; Lillie, R.A.; Pace, J.V. III; Cacuci, D.G.

    1987-01-01

    Uncertainty estimates and cross correlations by range/survivor location have been obtained for the free-in-air (FIA) tissue kerma for the Hiroshima atomic event. These uncertainties in the FIA kerma include contributions due to various modeling parameters and the basic cross section data and are given at three ground ranges, 700, 1000 and 1500 m. The estimated uncertainties are nearly constant over the given ground ranges and are approximately 27% for the prompt neutron kerma and secondary gamma kerma and 35% for the prompt gamma kerma. The total kerma uncertainty is dominated by the secondary gamma kerma uncertainties which are in turn largely due to the modeling parameter uncertainties

  14. Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some

  15. Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torres Matallana, Arturo; Leopold, U.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty is often ignored in urban hydrology modelling. Engineering practice typically ignores uncertainties and uncertainty propagation. This can have large impacts, such as the wrong dimensioning of urban drainage systems and the inaccurate estimation of pollution in the environment caused

  16. Fish remains and humankind: part two

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew K G Jones

    1998-07-01

    Full Text Available The significance of aquatic resources to past human groups is not adequately reflected in the published literature - a deficiency which is gradually being acknowledged by the archaeological community world-wide. The publication of the following three papers goes some way to redress this problem. Originally presented at an International Council of Archaeozoology (ICAZ Fish Remains Working Group meeting in York, U.K. in 1987, these papers offer clear evidence of the range of interest in ancient fish remains across the world. Further papers from the York meeting were published in Internet Archaeology 3 in 1997.

  17. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size

  18. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig

  19. Uncertainty and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.

    2009-01-01

    More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers

  20. Conditional uncertainty principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

    2018-04-01

    We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

  1. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  2. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  3. Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Data Generated for a Model Scramjet Isolator Flowfield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, R. A.; Axdahl, E. L.

    2017-01-01

    Computational fluid dynamics is now considered to be an indispensable tool for the design and development of scramjet engine components. Unfortunately, the quantification of uncertainties is rarely addressed with anything other than sensitivity studies, so the degree of confidence associated with the numerical results remains exclusively with the subject matter expert that generated them. This practice must be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification process for computational fluid dynamics to play an expanded role in the system design, development, and flight certification process. Given the limitations of current hypersonic ground test facilities, this expanded role is believed to be a requirement by some in the hypersonics community if scramjet engines are to be given serious consideration as a viable propulsion system. The present effort describes a simple, relatively low cost, nonintrusive approach to uncertainty quantification that includes the basic ingredients required to handle both aleatoric (random) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) sources of uncertainty. The nonintrusive nature of the approach allows the computational fluid dynamicist to perform the uncertainty quantification with the flow solver treated as a "black box". Moreover, a large fraction of the process can be automated, allowing the uncertainty assessment to be readily adapted into the engineering design and development workflow. In the present work, the approach is applied to a model scramjet isolator problem where the desire is to validate turbulence closure models in the presence of uncertainty. In this context, the relevant uncertainty sources are determined and accounted for to allow the analyst to delineate turbulence model-form errors from other sources of uncertainty associated with the simulation of the facility flow.

  4. Why Agricultural Educators Remain in the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crutchfield, Nina; Ritz, Rudy; Burris, Scott

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify and describe factors that are related to agricultural educator career retention and to explore the relationships between work engagement, work-life balance, occupational commitment, and personal and career factors as related to the decision to remain in the teaching profession. The target population for…

  5. Juveniles' Motivations for Remaining in Prostitution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Shu-Ling; Bedford, Olwen

    2004-01-01

    Qualitative data from in-depth interviews were collected in 1990-1991, 1992, and 2000 with 49 prostituted juveniles remanded to two rehabilitation centers in Taiwan. These data are analyzed to explore Taiwanese prostituted juveniles' feelings about themselves and their work, their motivations for remaining in prostitution, and their difficulties…

  6. Kadav Moun PSA (:60) (Human Remains)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-02-18

    This is an important public health announcement about safety precautions for those handling human remains. Language: Haitian Creole.  Created: 2/18/2010 by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).   Date Released: 2/18/2010.

  7. The Annuity Puzzle Remains a Puzzle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peijnenburg, J.M.J.; Werker, Bas; Nijman, Theo

    We examine incomplete annuity menus and background risk as possible drivers of divergence from full annuitization. Contrary to what is often suggested in the literature, we find that full annuitization remains optimal if saving is possible after retirement. This holds irrespective of whether real or

  8. Uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, S.; Metcalf, D.R.; Pegram, J.W.

    1982-01-01

    Three uncertainty propagation techniques, namely method of moments, discrete probability distribution (DPD), and Monte Carlo simulation, generally used in probabilistic risk assessment, are compared and conclusions drawn in terms of the accuracy of the results. For small uncertainty in the basic event unavailabilities, the three methods give similar results. For large uncertainty, the method of moments is in error, and the appropriate method is to propagate uncertainty in the discrete form either by DPD method without sampling or by Monte Carlo. (orig.)

  9. Computational chemical product design problems under property uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frutiger, Jerome; Cignitti, Stefano; Abildskov, Jens

    2017-01-01

    Three different strategies of how to combine computational chemical product design with Monte Carlo based methods for uncertainty analysis of chemical properties are outlined. One method consists of a computer-aided molecular design (CAMD) solution and a post-processing property uncertainty...... fluid design. While the higher end of the uncertainty range of the process model output is similar for the best performing fluids, the lower end of the uncertainty range differs largely....

  10. Molecular genetic identification of skeletal remains of apartheid ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Truth and Reconciliation Commission made significant progress in examining abuses committed during the apartheid era in South Africa. Despite information revealed by the commission, a large number of individuals remained missing when the commission closed its proceedings. This provided the impetus for the ...

  11. Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in sampling based nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwermann, W.; Krzykacz-Hausmann, B.; Gallner, L.; Klein, M.; Pautz, A.; Velkov, K.

    2012-01-01

    Sampling based uncertainty and sensitivity analyses due to epistemic input uncertainties, i.e. to an incomplete knowledge of uncertain input parameters, can be performed with arbitrary application programs to solve the physical problem under consideration. For the description of steady-state particle transport, direct simulations of the microscopic processes with Monte Carlo codes are often used. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty, the aleatoric sampling uncertainty, which is due to the randomness of the simulation process performed by sampling, and which adds to the total combined output sampling uncertainty. So far, this aleatoric part of uncertainty is minimized by running a sufficiently large number of Monte Carlo histories for each sample calculation, thus making its impact negligible as compared to the impact from sampling the epistemic uncertainties. Obviously, this process may cause high computational costs. The present paper shows that in many applications reliable epistemic uncertainty results can also be obtained with substantially lower computational effort by performing and analyzing two appropriately generated series of samples with much smaller number of Monte Carlo histories each. The method is applied along with the nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity code package XSUSA in combination with the Monte Carlo transport code KENO-Va to various critical assemblies and a full scale reactor calculation. It is shown that the proposed method yields output uncertainties and sensitivities equivalent to the traditional approach, with a high reduction of computing time by factors of the magnitude of 100. (authors)

  12. Explosives remain preferred methods for platform abandonment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulsipher, A.; Daniel, W. IV; Kiesler, J.E.; Mackey, V. III

    1996-01-01

    Economics and safety concerns indicate that methods involving explosives remain the most practical and cost-effective means for abandoning oil and gas structures in the Gulf of Mexico. A decade has passed since 51 dead sea turtles, many endangered Kemp's Ridleys, washed ashore on the Texas coast shortly after explosives helped remove several offshore platforms. Although no relationship between the explosions and the dead turtles was ever established, in response to widespread public concern, the US Minerals Management Service (MMS) and National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) implemented regulations limiting the size and timing of explosive charges. Also, more importantly, they required that operators pay for observers to survey waters surrounding platforms scheduled for removal for 48 hr before any detonations. If observers spot sea turtles or marine mammals within the danger zone, the platform abandonment is delayed until the turtles leave or are removed. However, concern about the effects of explosives on marine life remains

  13. Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

    2017-10-01

    A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

  14. Uncertainties in Safety Analysis. A literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekberg, C.

    1995-05-01

    The purpose of the presented work has been to give a short summary of the origins of many uncertainties arising in the designing and performance assessment of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. Some different methods to treat these uncertainties is also included. The methods and conclusions are in many cases general in the sense that they are applicable to many other disciplines where simulations are used. As a conclusion it may be noted that uncertainties of different origin have been discussed and debated, but one large group, e.g. computer simulations, where the methods to make a more explicit investigation exists, have not been investigated in a satisfying way. 50 refs

  15. Uncertainties in Safety Analysis. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekberg, C [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Nuclear Chemistry

    1995-05-01

    The purpose of the presented work has been to give a short summary of the origins of many uncertainties arising in the designing and performance assessment of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. Some different methods to treat these uncertainties is also included. The methods and conclusions are in many cases general in the sense that they are applicable to many other disciplines where simulations are used. As a conclusion it may be noted that uncertainties of different origin have been discussed and debated, but one large group, e.g. computer simulations, where the methods to make a more explicit investigation exists, have not been investigated in a satisfying way. 50 refs.

  16. Verification of uncertainty budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    , and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...

  17. Evaluation of uncertainty of adaptive radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia Molla, R.; Gomez Martin, C.; Vidueira, L.; Juan-Senabre, X.; Garcia Gomez, R.

    2013-01-01

    This work is part of tests to perform to its acceptance in the clinical practice. The uncertainties of adaptive radiation, and which will separate the study, can be divided into two large parts: dosimetry in the CBCT and RDI. At each stage, their uncertainties are quantified and a level of action from which it would be reasonable to adapt the plan may be obtained with the total. (Author)

  18. Planning ATES systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaxa-Rozen, Marc; Kwakkel, Jan; Bloemendal, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) can contribute to significant reductions in energy use within the built environment, by providing seasonal energy storage in aquifers for the heating and cooling of buildings. ATES systems have experienced a rapid uptake over the last two decades; however, despite successful experiments at the individual level, the overall performance of ATES systems remains below expectations - largely due to suboptimal practices for the planning and operation of systems in urban areas. The interaction between ATES systems and underground aquifers can be interpreted as a common-pool resource problem, in which thermal imbalances or interference could eventually degrade the storage potential of the subsurface. Current planning approaches for ATES systems thus typically follow the precautionary principle. For instance, the permitting process in the Netherlands is intended to minimize thermal interference between ATES systems. However, as shown in recent studies (Sommer et al., 2015; Bakr et al., 2013), a controlled amount of interference may benefit the collective performance of ATES systems. An overly restrictive approach to permitting is instead likely to create an artificial scarcity of available space, limiting the potential of the technology in urban areas. In response, master plans - which take into account the collective arrangement of multiple systems - have emerged as an increasingly popular alternative. However, permits and master plans both take a static, ex ante view of ATES governance, making it difficult to predict the effect of evolving ATES use or climactic conditions on overall performance. In particular, the adoption of new systems by building operators is likely to be driven by the available subsurface space and by the performance of existing systems; these outcomes are themselves a function of planning parameters. From this perspective, the interactions between planning authorities, ATES operators, and subsurface conditions

  19. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  20. Uncertainty in oil projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limperopoulos, G.J.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents an oil project valuation under uncertainty by means of two well-known financial techniques: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. CAPM gives a linear positive relationship between expected rate of return and risk but does not take into consideration the aspect of flexibility which is crucial for an irreversible investment as an oil price is. Introduction of investment decision flexibility by using real options can increase the oil project value substantially. Some simple tests for the importance of uncertainty in stock market for oil investments are performed. Uncertainty in stock returns is correlated with aggregate product market uncertainty according to Pindyck (1991). The results of the tests are not satisfactory due to the short data series but introducing two other explanatory variables the interest rate and Gross Domestic Product make the situation better. 36 refs., 18 figs., 6 tabs

  1. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  2. Mechanics and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lemaire, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

  3. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  4. Industry remains stuck in a transitional mode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, F.A.

    1991-01-01

    The near future for industry remains foggy for several obvious reasons. The shake-up of the Soviet Union and how the pieces will reform remains unclear. How successful efforts are to privatize government oil company operations around the world has yet to be determined. A long sought peace in the Middle East seems to be inching closer, but will this continue? If it does continue, what impact will it have on world energy policy? Will American companies, which are now transferring their attention to foreign E and P, also maintain an interest in domestic activities? Is the U.S. economy really on the upswing? We are told that the worst of the recession is over, but try telling this to thousands of workers in the oil patch who are being released monthly by the big players in domestic operations. This paper reports that 1992 should be a better year than 1991, if measured in opportunity. There are more exploration and acquisition options available, both domestically and internationally, than there have been in years. Probably more opportunities exist than there are players-certainly more than can be funded with current financial resources

  5. Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Fricko, Oliver; Meinshausen, Malte; Krey, Volker; Zilliacus, Johanna J J; Riahi, Keywan

    2017-06-06

    The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO 2 e yr -1 . We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.

  6. Uncertainty propagation for statistical impact prediction of space debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogendoorn, R.; Mooij, E.; Geul, J.

    2018-01-01

    Predictions of the impact time and location of space debris in a decaying trajectory are highly influenced by uncertainties. The traditional Monte Carlo (MC) method can be used to perform accurate statistical impact predictions, but requires a large computational effort. A method is investigated that directly propagates a Probability Density Function (PDF) in time, which has the potential to obtain more accurate results with less computational effort. The decaying trajectory of Delta-K rocket stages was used to test the methods using a six degrees-of-freedom state model. The PDF of the state of the body was propagated in time to obtain impact-time distributions. This Direct PDF Propagation (DPP) method results in a multi-dimensional scattered dataset of the PDF of the state, which is highly challenging to process. No accurate results could be obtained, because of the structure of the DPP data and the high dimensionality. Therefore, the DPP method is less suitable for practical uncontrolled entry problems and the traditional MC method remains superior. Additionally, the MC method was used with two improved uncertainty models to obtain impact-time distributions, which were validated using observations of true impacts. For one of the two uncertainty models, statistically more valid impact-time distributions were obtained than in previous research.

  7. Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Fricko, Oliver; Meinshausen, Malte; Krey, Volker; Zilliacus, Johanna J. J.; Riahi, Keywan

    2017-06-01

    The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr-1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.

  8. Shotgun microbial profiling of fossil remains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Der Sarkissian, Clio; Ermini, Luca; Jónsson, Hákon

    2014-01-01

    the specimen of interest, but instead reflect environmental organisms that colonized the specimen after death. Here, we characterize the microbial diversity recovered from seven c. 200- to 13 000-year-old horse bones collected from northern Siberia. We use a robust, taxonomy-based assignment approach...... to identify the microorganisms present in ancient DNA extracts and quantify their relative abundance. Our results suggest that molecular preservation niches exist within ancient samples that can potentially be used to characterize the environments from which the remains are recovered. In addition, microbial...... community profiling of the seven specimens revealed site-specific environmental signatures. These microbial communities appear to comprise mainly organisms that colonized the fossils recently. Our approach significantly extends the amount of useful data that can be recovered from ancient specimens using...

  9. Some remaining problems in HCDA analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.W.

    1981-01-01

    The safety assessment and licensing of liquid-metal fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs) requires an analysis on the capability of the reactor primary system to sustain the consequences of a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). Although computational methods and computer programs developed for HCDA analyses can predict reasonably well the response of the primary containment system, and follow up the phenomena of HCDA from the start of excursion to the time of dynamic equilibrium in the system, there remain areas in the HCDA analysis that merit further analytical and experimental studies. These are the analysis of fluid impact on reactor cover, three-dimensional analysis, the treatment of the perforated plates, material properties under high strain rates and under high temperatures, the treatment of multifield flows, and the treatment of prestressed concrete reactor vessels. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the structural mechanics of HCDA analysis in these areas where improvements are needed

  10. Political, energy events will remain interwoven

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.P.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that it is possible to discuss the significance of political and energy events separately, but, in truth, they are intricately interwoven. Furthermore, there are those who will argue that since the two are inseparable, the future is not predictable; so why bother in the endeavor. It is possible that the central point of the exercise may have been missed-yes, the future is unpredictable exclamation point However, the objective of prediction is secondary. The objective of understanding the dynamic forces of change is primary exclamation point With this view of recent history, it is perhaps appropriate to pause and think about the future of the petroleum industry. The future as shaped by political, energy, economic, environmental and technological forces will direct our lives and markets during this decade. Most importantly, what will be the direction that successful businesses take to remain competitive in a global environment? These are interesting issues worthy of provocative thoughts and innovative ideas

  11. Nuclear remains an economic and ecologic asset

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Ngoc, Boris

    2015-01-01

    The author herein outlines the several benefits of nuclear energy and nuclear industry for France. He first outlines that France possesses 97 per cent of de-carbonated electricity thanks to nuclear energy (77 pc) and renewable energies (20 pc, mainly hydraulic), and that renewable energies must be developed in the building and transport sectors to be able to get rid of the environmentally and financially costly fossil energies. He outlines that reactor maintenance and the nuclear fuel cycle industry are fields of technological leadership for the French nuclear industry which is, after motor industry and aircraft industry, the third industrial sector in France. He indicates that nuclear electricity is to remain the most competitive one, and that nuclear energy and renewable energies must not be opposed to it but considered as complementary in the struggle against climate change, i.e. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to get rid of the prevalence of fossil energies

  12. Population cycles: generalities, exceptions and remaining mysteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Population cycles are one of nature's great mysteries. For almost a hundred years, innumerable studies have probed the causes of cyclic dynamics in snowshoe hares, voles and lemmings, forest Lepidoptera and grouse. Even though cyclic species have very different life histories, similarities in mechanisms related to their dynamics are apparent. In addition to high reproductive rates and density-related mortality from predators, pathogens or parasitoids, other characteristics include transgenerational reduced reproduction and dispersal with increasing-peak densities, and genetic similarity among populations. Experiments to stop cyclic dynamics and comparisons of cyclic and noncyclic populations provide some understanding but both reproduction and mortality must be considered. What determines variation in amplitude and periodicity of population outbreaks remains a mystery. PMID:29563267

  13. Does hypertension remain after kidney transplantation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Pourmand

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Hypertension is a common complication of kidney transplantation with the prevalence of 80%. Studies in adults have shown a high prevalence of hypertension (HTN in the first three months of transplantation while this rate is reduced to 50- 60% at the end of the first year. HTN remains as a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, lower graft survival rates and poor function of transplanted kidney in adults and children. In this retrospective study, medical records of 400 kidney transplantation patients of Sina Hospital were evaluated. Patients were followed monthly for the 1st year, every two months in the 2nd year and every three months after that. In this study 244 (61% patients were male. Mean ± SD age of recipients was 39.3 ± 13.8 years. In most patients (40.8% the cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD was unknown followed by HTN (26.3%. A total of 166 (41.5% patients had been hypertensive before transplantation and 234 (58.5% had normal blood pressure. Among these 234 individuals, 94 (40.2% developed post-transplantation HTN. On the other hand, among 166 pre-transplant hypertensive patients, 86 patients (56.8% remained hypertensive after transplantation. Totally 180 (45% patients had post-transplantation HTN and 220 patients (55% didn't develop HTN. Based on the findings, the incidence of post-transplantation hypertension is high, and kidney transplantation does not lead to remission of hypertension. On the other hand, hypertension is one of the main causes of ESRD. Thus, early screening of hypertension can prevent kidney damage and reduce further problems in renal transplant recipients.

  14. Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

  15. Resolving uncertainty in chemical speciation determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D. Scott; Adams, Nicholas W. H.; Kramer, James R.

    1999-10-01

    Speciation determinations involve uncertainty in system definition and experimentation. Identification of appropriate metals and ligands from basic chemical principles, analytical window considerations, types of species and checking for consistency in equilibrium calculations are considered in system definition uncertainty. A systematic approach to system definition limits uncertainty in speciation investigations. Experimental uncertainty is discussed with an example of proton interactions with Suwannee River fulvic acid (SRFA). A Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate uncertainty in experimental data, resulting from the propagation of uncertainties in electrode calibration parameters and experimental data points. Monte Carlo simulations revealed large uncertainties present at high (>9-10) and low (monoprotic ligands. Least-squares fit the data with 21 sites, whereas linear programming fit the data equally well with 9 sites. Multiresponse fitting, involving simultaneous fluorescence and pH measurements, improved model discrimination. Deconvolution of the excitation versus emission fluorescence surface for SRFA establishes a minimum of five sites. Diprotic sites are also required for the five fluorescent sites, and one non-fluorescent monoprotic site was added to accommodate the pH data. Consistent with greater complexity, the multiresponse method had broader confidence limits than the uniresponse methods, but corresponded better with the accepted total carboxylic content for SRFA. Overall there was a 40% standard deviation in total carboxylic content for the multiresponse fitting, versus 10% and 1% for least-squares and linear programming, respectively.

  16. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  17. ICYESS 2013: Understanding and Interpreting Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauser, F.; Niederdrenk, L.; Schemann, V.; Schmidt, A.; Suesser, D.; Sonntag, S.

    2013-12-01

    We will report the outcomes and highlights of the Interdisciplinary Conference of Young Earth System Scientists (ICYESS) on Understanding and Interpreting Uncertainty in September 2013, Hamburg, Germany. This conference is aimed at early career scientists (Masters to Postdocs) from a large variety of scientific disciplines and backgrounds (natural, social and political sciences) and will enable 3 days of discussions on a variety of uncertainty-related aspects: 1) How do we deal with implicit and explicit uncertainty in our daily scientific work? What is uncertain for us, and for which reasons? 2) How can we communicate these uncertainties to other disciplines? E.g., is uncertainty in cloud parameterization and respectively equilibrium climate sensitivity a concept that is understood equally well in natural and social sciences that deal with Earth System questions? Or vice versa, is, e.g., normative uncertainty as in choosing a discount rate relevant for natural scientists? How can those uncertainties be reconciled? 3) How can science communicate this uncertainty to the public? Is it useful at all? How are the different possible measures of uncertainty understood in different realms of public discourse? Basically, we want to learn from all disciplines that work together in the broad Earth System Science community how to understand and interpret uncertainty - and then transfer this understanding to the problem of how to communicate with the public, or its different layers / agents. ICYESS is structured in a way that participation is only possible via presentation, so every participant will give their own professional input into how the respective disciplines deal with uncertainty. Additionally, a large focus is put onto communication techniques; there are no 'standard presentations' in ICYESS. Keynote lectures by renowned scientists and discussions will lead to a deeper interdisciplinary understanding of what we do not really know, and how to deal with it. Many

  18. The Human Remains from HMS Pandora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.P. Steptoe

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available In 1977 the wreck of HMS Pandora (the ship that was sent to re-capture the Bounty mutineers was discovered off the north coast of Queensland. Since 1983, the Queensland Museum Maritime Archaeology section has carried out systematic excavation of the wreck. During the years 1986 and 1995-1998, more than 200 human bone and bone fragments were recovered. Osteological investigation revealed that this material represented three males. Their ages were estimated at approximately 17 +/-2 years, 22 +/-3 years and 28 +/-4 years, with statures of 168 +/-4cm, 167 +/-4cm, and 166cm +/-3cm respectively. All three individuals were probably Caucasian, although precise determination of ethnicity was not possible. In addition to poor dental hygiene, signs of chronic diseases suggestive of rickets and syphilis were observed. Evidence of spina bifida was seen on one of the skeletons, as were other skeletal anomalies. Various taphonomic processes affecting the remains were also observed and described. Compact bone was observed under the scanning electron microscope and found to be structurally coherent. Profiles of the three skeletons were compared with historical information about the 35 men lost with the ship, but no precise identification could be made. The investigation did not reveal the cause of death. Further research, such as DNA analysis, is being carried out at the time of publication.

  19. SMART POINT CLOUD: DEFINITION AND REMAINING CHALLENGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Poux

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Dealing with coloured point cloud acquired from terrestrial laser scanner, this paper identifies remaining challenges for a new data structure: the smart point cloud. This concept arises with the statement that massive and discretized spatial information from active remote sensing technology is often underused due to data mining limitations. The generalisation of point cloud data associated with the heterogeneity and temporality of such datasets is the main issue regarding structure, segmentation, classification, and interaction for an immediate understanding. We propose to use both point cloud properties and human knowledge through machine learning to rapidly extract pertinent information, using user-centered information (smart data rather than raw data. A review of feature detection, machine learning frameworks and database systems indexed both for mining queries and data visualisation is studied. Based on existing approaches, we propose a new 3-block flexible framework around device expertise, analytic expertise and domain base reflexion. This contribution serves as the first step for the realisation of a comprehensive smart point cloud data structure.

  20. BEPU methods and combining of uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.; Mavko, B.

    2004-01-01

    After approval of the revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling system (ECCS) performance in 1988 there has been significant interest in the development of codes and methodologies for best-estimate loss-of-coolant accident (LOCAs) analyses. The Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation method was developed and demonstrated for large-break (LB) LOCA in a pressurized water reactor. Later several new best estimate plus uncertainty methods (BEPUs) were developed in the world. The purpose of the paper is to identify and compare the statistical approaches of BEPU methods and present their important plant and licensing applications. The study showed that uncertainty analysis with random sampling of input parameters and the use of order statistics for desired tolerance limits of output parameters is today commonly accepted approach. The existing BEPU methods seems mature enough while the future research may be focused on the codes with internal assessment of uncertainty. (author)

  1. Policy Uncertainty and the US Ethanol Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason P. H. Jones

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2, as implemented, has introduced uncertainty into US ethanol producers and the supporting commodity market. First, the fixed mandate for what is mainly cornstarch-based ethanol has increased feedstock price volatility and exerts a general effect across the agricultural sector. Second, the large discrepancy between the original Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA intentions and the actual RFS2 implementation for some fuel classes has increased the investment uncertainty facing investors in biofuel production, distribution, and consumption. Here we discuss and analyze the sources of uncertainty and evaluate the effect of potential RFS2 adjustments as they influence these uncertainties. This includes the use of a flexible, production dependent mandate on corn starch ethanol. We find that a flexible mandate on cornstarch ethanol relaxed during drought could significantly reduce commodity price spikes and alleviate the decline of livestock production in cases of feedstock production shortfalls, but it would increase the risk for ethanol investors.

  2. Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rommel N. Carvalho

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST, a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.

  3. Apparatus for Removing Remaining Adhesives of Filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Il Sik; Kim, Tae Kuk; Hong, Dae Seok; Ji, Young Yong; Ryu, Woo Seog

    2010-01-01

    A Large amount of ventilation filter was used at radiation areas not only in nuclear power plants but also in nuclear facilities. These spent ventilation filters are generated as radioactive waste and composed of a steel frame, glass fiber media and aluminum separator. When treated, the spent filter is separated into filter media for air purification and frame. After separation, while the filter media is collected using steel drum for reducing internal exposure, the filter frame is treated further to remove adhesives for recycling the frame as many as possible in order to reduce waste and cost and improve working conditions. Usually, the adhesives are separated from the filter frame manually. As a result, a lot of time and labor is required. So, the objective of this study is to develop a motor-driven apparatus for removing adhesives efficiently

  4. What remains of the Arrow oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sergy, G.; Owens, E.

    1993-01-01

    In February 1970, the tanker Arrow became grounded 6.5 km off the north shore of Chedabucto Bay, Nova Scotia, and nearly 72,000 bbl of Bunker C fuel oil were released from the vessel during its subsequent breakup and sinking. The oil was washed ashore in various degrees over an estimated 305 km of the bay's 604-km shoreline, of which only 48 km were cleaned. In addition, the tanker Kurdistan broke in two in pack ice in March 1979 in the Cabot Strait area, spilling ca 54,000 bbl of Bunker C, some of which was later found at 16 locations along the northeast and east shorelines of Chedabucto Bay. In summer 1992, a systematic ground survey of the bay's shorelines was conducted using Environment Canada Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Team (SCAT) procedures. Standard observations were made of oil distribution and width, thickness, and character of the oil residues in 419 coastal segments. Results from the survey are summarized. Oil was found to be present on 13.3 km of the shoreline, with heavy oiling restricted to 1.3 km primarily in the areas of Black Duck Cove and Lennox Passage. Some of this residual oil was identified as coming from the Arrow. Natural weathering processes account for removal of most of the spilled oil from the bay. Oil remaining on the shore was found in areas outside of the zone of physical wave action, in areas of nearshore mixing where fine sediments are not present to weather the oil through biophysical processes, or in crusts formed by oil weathered on the surface. The systematic description of oiled shorelines using the SCAT methodology proved very successful, even for such an old spill. 6 refs

  5. Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermes, C.L.M.; Lensink, B.W.

    This paper shows that policy uncertainty, measured by the uncertainty of budget deficits, tart payments, government consumption and the inflation rate, has a statistically significant positive impact on capital flight. This result remains robust after having applied stability tests. (C) 2001

  6. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD

    1990-01-01

    Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i

  7. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

  8. Uncertainties of the ultrasonic thickness gauging (UTTG)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamad Pauzi Ismail; Yassir Yassen; Amry Amin Abas

    2009-04-01

    The reliability of UTTG was questioned by a senior staff from DOSH in his paper presented during third NDT and Corrosion Management Asia Conference and Exhibition, 4-5 September 2007 at Istana Hotel, Kuala Lumpur. A term 'thickness grow' is an issue need to be solved by NDT community. The technique used by many practitioners gives rise to serious shortcoming in both probability of detection and accuracy of remaining wall assessment. This paper explained and discussed on uncertainty measurement based on the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) (1) of real UTTG data obtained from chemical industry. (author)

  9. Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Coppersmith

    2001-01-01

    The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository

  10. Uncertainty in Citizen Science observations: from measurement to user perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahoz, William; Schneider, Philipp; Castell, Nuria

    2016-04-01

    Citizen Science activities concern general public engagement in scientific research activities when citizens actively contribute to science either with their intellectual effort or surrounding knowledge or with their tools and resources. The advent of technologies such as the Internet and smartphones, and the growth in their usage, has significantly increased the potential benefits from Citizen Science activities. Citizen Science observations from low-cost sensors, smartphones and Citizen Observatories, provide a novel and recent development in platforms for observing the Earth System, with the opportunity to extend the range of observational platforms available to society to spatio-temporal scales (10-100s m; 1 hr or less) highly relevant to citizen needs. The potential value of Citizen Science is high, with applications in science, education, social aspects, and policy aspects, but this potential, particularly for citizens and policymakers, remains largely untapped. Key areas where Citizen Science data start to have demonstrable benefits include GEOSS Societal Benefit Areas such as Health and Weather. Citizen Science observations have many challenges, including simulation of smaller spatial scales, noisy data, combination with traditional observational methods (satellite and in situ data), and assessment, representation and visualization of uncertainty. Within these challenges, that of the assessment and representation of uncertainty and its communication to users is fundamental, as it provides qualitative and/or quantitative information that influences the belief users will have in environmental information. This presentation will discuss the challenges in assessment and representation of uncertainty in Citizen Science observations, its communication to users, including the use of visualization, and the perception of this uncertainty information by users of Citizen Science observations.

  11. Predicting intolerance of uncertainty in individuals with eating disorder symptoms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sternheim, Lot C; Fisher, Martin; Harrison, Amy; Watling, Rosamond

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) is recognized for its contribution to various psychopathologies, in particular anxiety and depression. Studies highlight the relevance of IU for Eating Disorders (EDs) however, potential factors contributing to IU in EDs remain unstudied. METHODS: Three

  12. Recovery of human remains after shark attack.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byard, Roger W; James, Ross A; Heath, Karen J

    2006-09-01

    Two cases of fatal shark attack are reported where the only tissues recovered were fragments of lung. Case 1: An 18-year-old male who was in the sea behind a boat was observed by friends to be taken by a great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias). The shark dragged him under the water and then, with a second shark, dismembered the body. Witnesses noted a large amount of blood and unrecognizable body parts coming to the surface. The only tissues recovered despite an intensive beach and sea search were 2 fragments of lung. Case 2: A 19-year-old male was attacked by a great white shark while diving. A witness saw the shark swim away with the victim's body in its mouth. Again, despite intensive beach and sea searches, the only tissue recovered was a single piece of lung, along with pieces of wetsuit and diving equipment. These cases indicate that the only tissue to escape being consumed or lost in fatal shark attacks, where there is a significant attack with dismemberment and disruption of the integrity of the body, may be lung. The buoyancy of aerated pulmonary tissue ensures that it rises quickly to the surface, where it may be recovered by searchers soon after the attack. Aeration of the lung would be in keeping with death from trauma rather than from drowning and may be a useful marker in unwitnessed deaths to separate ante- from postmortem injury, using only relatively small amounts of tissues. Early organ recovery enhances the identification of human tissues as the extent of morphologic alterations by putrefactive processes and sea scavengers will have been minimized. DNA testing is also possible on such recovered fragments, enabling confirmation of the identity of the victim.

  13. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-12-31

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.

  14. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling

  15. Risks, uncertainty, vagueness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.; Renn, O.; Erdmann, G.

    1990-01-01

    The notion of 'risk' is discussed in its social and technological contexts, leading to an investigation of the terms factuality, hypotheticality, uncertainty, and vagueness, and to the problems of acceptance and acceptability especially in the context of political decision finding. (DG) [de

  16. Strategy under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

    1997-01-01

    At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

  17. Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quick, Julian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Annoni, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); King, Ryan N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dykes, Katherine L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fleming, Paul A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ning, Andrew [Brigham Young University

    2017-08-03

    Offsetting turbines' yaw orientations from incoming wind is a powerful tool that may be leveraged to reduce undesirable wake effects on downstream turbines. First, we examine a simple two-turbine case to gain intuition as to how inflow direction uncertainty affects the optimal solution. The turbines are modeled with unidirectional inflow such that one turbine directly wakes the other, using ten rotor diameter spacing. We perform optimization under uncertainty (OUU) via a parameter sweep of the front turbine. The OUU solution generally prefers less steering. We then do this optimization for a 60-turbine wind farm with unidirectional inflow, varying the degree of inflow uncertainty and approaching this OUU problem by nesting a polynomial chaos expansion uncertainty quantification routine within an outer optimization. We examined how different levels of uncertainty in the inflow direction effect the ratio of the expected values of deterministic and OUU solutions for steering strategies in the large wind farm, assuming the directional uncertainty used to reach said OUU solution (this ratio is defined as the value of the stochastic solution or VSS).

  18. Assessment of SFR Wire Wrap Simulation Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delchini, Marc-Olivier G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Popov, Emilian L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Pointer, William David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Swiler, Laura P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-09-30

    Predictive modeling and simulation of nuclear reactor performance and fuel are challenging due to the large number of coupled physical phenomena that must be addressed. Models that will be used for design or operational decisions must be analyzed for uncertainty to ascertain impacts to safety or performance. Rigorous, structured uncertainty analyses are performed by characterizing the model’s input uncertainties and then propagating the uncertainties through the model to estimate output uncertainty. This project is part of the ongoing effort to assess modeling uncertainty in Nek5000 simulations of flow configurations relevant to the advanced reactor applications of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Three geometries are under investigation in these preliminary assessments: a 3-D pipe, a 3-D 7-pin bundle, and a single pin from the Thermal-Hydraulic Out-of-Reactor Safety (THORS) facility. Initial efforts have focused on gaining an understanding of Nek5000 modeling options and integrating Nek5000 with Dakota. These tasks are being accomplished by demonstrating the use of Dakota to assess parametric uncertainties in a simple pipe flow problem. This problem is used to optimize performance of the uncertainty quantification strategy and to estimate computational requirements for assessments of complex geometries. A sensitivity analysis to three turbulent models was conducted for a turbulent flow in a single wire wrapped pin (THOR) geometry. Section 2 briefly describes the software tools used in this study and provides appropriate references. Section 3 presents the coupling interface between Dakota and a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code (Nek5000 or STARCCM+), with details on the workflow, the scripts used for setting up the run, and the scripts used for post-processing the output files. In Section 4, the meshing methods used to generate the THORS and 7-pin bundle meshes are explained. Sections 5, 6 and 7 present numerical results

  19. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Uncertainty in urban flood damage assessment due to urban drainage modelling and depth-damage curve estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freni, G; La Loggia, G; Notaro, V

    2010-01-01

    Due to the increased occurrence of flooding events in urban areas, many procedures for flood damage quantification have been defined in recent decades. The lack of large databases in most cases is overcome by combining the output of urban drainage models and damage curves linking flooding to expected damage. The application of advanced hydraulic models as diagnostic, design and decision-making support tools has become a standard practice in hydraulic research and application. Flooding damage functions are usually evaluated by a priori estimation of potential damage (based on the value of exposed goods) or by interpolating real damage data (recorded during historical flooding events). Hydraulic models have undergone continuous advancements, pushed forward by increasing computer capacity. The details of the flooding propagation process on the surface and the details of the interconnections between underground and surface drainage systems have been studied extensively in recent years, resulting in progressively more reliable models. The same level of was advancement has not been reached with regard to damage curves, for which improvements are highly connected to data availability; this remains the main bottleneck in the expected flooding damage estimation. Such functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty intrinsically related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the adopted functional relationships. The present paper aimed to evaluate this uncertainty by comparing the intrinsic uncertainty connected to the construction of the damage-depth function to the hydraulic model uncertainty. In this way, the paper sought to evaluate the role of hydraulic model detail level in the wider context of flood damage estimation. This paper demonstrated that the use of detailed hydraulic models might not be justified because of the higher computational cost and the significant uncertainty in damage estimation curves. This uncertainty occurs mainly

  1. Remaining useful life estimation in heterogeneous fleets working under variable operating conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Dahidi, Sameer; Di Maio, Francesco; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The availability of condition monitoring data for large fleets of similar equipment motivates the development of data-driven prognostic approaches that capitalize on the information contained in such data to estimate equipment Remaining Useful Life (RUL). A main difficulty is that the fleet of equipment typically experiences different operating conditions, which influence both the condition monitoring data and the degradation processes that physically determine the RUL. We propose an approach for RUL estimation from heterogeneous fleet data based on three phases: firstly, the degradation levels (states) of an homogeneous discrete-time finite-state semi-markov model are identified by resorting to an unsupervised ensemble clustering approach. Then, the parameters of the discrete Weibull distributions describing the transitions among the states and their uncertainties are inferred by resorting to the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method and to the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), respectively. Finally, the inferred degradation model is used to estimate the RUL of fleet equipment by direct Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The proposed approach is applied to two case studies regarding heterogeneous fleets of aluminium electrolytic capacitors and turbofan engines. Results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting the RUL and its superiority compared to a fuzzy similarity-based approach of literature. - Highlights: • The prediction of the remaining useful life for heterogeneous fleets is addressed. • A data-driven prognostics approach based on a Markov model is proposed. • The proposed approach is applied to two different heterogeneous fleets. • The results are compared with those obtained by a fuzzy similarity-based approach.

  2. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil Adger, W.; Vincent, K.

    2005-01-01

    The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. (authors)

  3. Uncertainties about climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laval, Katia; Laval, Guy

    2013-01-01

    Like meteorology, climatology is not an exact science: climate change forecasts necessarily include a share of uncertainty. It is precisely this uncertainty which is brandished and exploited by the opponents to the global warming theory to put into question the estimations of its future consequences. Is it legitimate to predict the future using the past climate data (well documented up to 100000 years BP) or the climates of other planets, taking into account the impreciseness of the measurements and the intrinsic complexity of the Earth's machinery? How is it possible to model a so huge and interwoven system for which any exact description has become impossible? Why water and precipitations play such an important role in local and global forecasts, and how should they be treated? This book written by two physicists answers with simpleness these delicate questions in order to give anyone the possibility to build his own opinion about global warming and the need to act rapidly

  4. Functional neuroimaging of belief, disbelief, and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Sam; Sheth, Sameer A; Cohen, Mark S

    2008-02-01

    The difference between believing and disbelieving a proposition is one of the most potent regulators of human behavior and emotion. When one accepts a statement as true, it becomes the basis for further thought and action; rejected as false, it remains a string of words. The purpose of this study was to differentiate belief, disbelief, and uncertainty at the level of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to study the brains of 14 adults while they judged written statements to be "true" (belief), "false" (disbelief), or "undecidable" (uncertainty). To characterize belief, disbelief, and uncertainty in a content-independent manner, we included statements from a wide range of categories: autobiographical, mathematical, geographical, religious, ethical, semantic, and factual. The states of belief, disbelief, and uncertainty differentially activated distinct regions of the prefrontal and parietal cortices, as well as the basal ganglia. Belief and disbelief differ from uncertainty in that both provide information that can subsequently inform behavior and emotion. The mechanism underlying this difference appears to involve the anterior cingulate cortex and the caudate. Although many areas of higher cognition are likely involved in assessing the truth-value of linguistic propositions, the final acceptance of a statement as "true" or its rejection as "false" appears to rely on more primitive, hedonic processing in the medial prefrontal cortex and the anterior insula. Truth may be beauty, and beauty truth, in more than a metaphorical sense, and false propositions may actually disgust us.

  5. Information theoretic quantification of diagnostic uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westover, M Brandon; Eiseman, Nathaniel A; Cash, Sydney S; Bianchi, Matt T

    2012-01-01

    Diagnostic test interpretation remains a challenge in clinical practice. Most physicians receive training in the use of Bayes' rule, which specifies how the sensitivity and specificity of a test for a given disease combine with the pre-test probability to quantify the change in disease probability incurred by a new test result. However, multiple studies demonstrate physicians' deficiencies in probabilistic reasoning, especially with unexpected test results. Information theory, a branch of probability theory dealing explicitly with the quantification of uncertainty, has been proposed as an alternative framework for diagnostic test interpretation, but is even less familiar to physicians. We have previously addressed one key challenge in the practical application of Bayes theorem: the handling of uncertainty in the critical first step of estimating the pre-test probability of disease. This essay aims to present the essential concepts of information theory to physicians in an accessible manner, and to extend previous work regarding uncertainty in pre-test probability estimation by placing this type of uncertainty within a principled information theoretic framework. We address several obstacles hindering physicians' application of information theoretic concepts to diagnostic test interpretation. These include issues of terminology (mathematical meanings of certain information theoretic terms differ from clinical or common parlance) as well as the underlying mathematical assumptions. Finally, we illustrate how, in information theoretic terms, one can understand the effect on diagnostic uncertainty of considering ranges instead of simple point estimates of pre-test probability.

  6. The uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, Hans.

    1991-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is the uncertainty principle (UP). The UP is one of the most characteristic points of differences between quantum and classical mechanics. The starting point of this thesis is the work of Niels Bohr. Besides the discussion the work is also analyzed. For the discussion of the different aspects of the UP the formalism of Davies and Ludwig is used instead of the more commonly used formalism of Neumann and Dirac. (author). 214 refs.; 23 figs

  7. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Shachter, RD; Henrion, M; Lemmer, JF

    1990-01-01

    This volume, like its predecessors, reflects the cutting edge of research on the automation of reasoning under uncertainty.A more pragmatic emphasis is evident, for although some papers address fundamental issues, the majority address practical issues. Topics include the relations between alternative formalisms (including possibilistic reasoning), Dempster-Shafer belief functions, non-monotonic reasoning, Bayesian and decision theoretic schemes, and new inference techniques for belief nets. New techniques are applied to important problems in medicine, vision, robotics, and natural language und

  8. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  9. Economic uncertainty principle?

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander Harin

    2006-01-01

    The economic principle of (hidden) uncertainty is presented. New probability formulas are offered. Examples of solutions of three types of fundamental problems are reviewed.; Principe d'incertitude économique? Le principe économique d'incertitude (cachée) est présenté. De nouvelles formules de chances sont offertes. Les exemples de solutions des trois types de problèmes fondamentaux sont reconsidérés.

  10. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  11. Participation under Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudourides, Moses A.

    2003-01-01

    This essay reviews a number of theoretical perspectives about uncertainty and participation in the present-day knowledge-based society. After discussing the on-going reconfigurations of science, technology and society, we examine how appropriate for policy studies are various theories of social complexity. Post-normal science is such an example of a complexity-motivated approach, which justifies civic participation as a policy response to an increasing uncertainty. But there are different categories and models of uncertainties implying a variety of configurations of policy processes. A particular role in all of them is played by expertise whose democratization is an often-claimed imperative nowadays. Moreover, we discuss how different participatory arrangements are shaped into instruments of policy-making and framing regulatory processes. As participation necessitates and triggers deliberation, we proceed to examine the role and the barriers of deliberativeness. Finally, we conclude by referring to some critical views about the ultimate assumptions of recent European policy frameworks and the conceptions of civic participation and politicization that they invoke

  12. Uncertainty analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marivoet, J.; Saltelli, A.; Cadelli, N.

    1987-01-01

    The origin of the uncertainty affecting Performance Assessments, as well as their propagation to dose and risk results is discussed. The analysis is focused essentially on the uncertainties introduced by the input parameters, the values of which may range over some orders of magnitude and may be given as probability distribution function. The paper briefly reviews the existing sampling techniques used for Monte Carlo simulations and the methods for characterizing the output curves, determining their convergence and confidence limits. Annual doses, expectation values of the doses and risks are computed for a particular case of a possible repository in clay, in order to illustrate the significance of such output characteristics as the mean, the logarithmic mean and the median as well as their ratios. The report concludes that provisionally, due to its better robustness, such estimation as the 90th percentile may be substituted to the arithmetic mean for comparison of the estimated doses with acceptance criteria. In any case, the results obtained through Uncertainty Analyses must be interpreted with caution as long as input data distribution functions are not derived from experiments reasonably reproducing the situation in a well characterized repository and site

  13. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-12-01

    This paper presents a deterministic uncertainty analysis (DUA) method for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs compared to conventional statistical analysis. The method is based upon the availability of derivative and sensitivity data such as that calculated using the well known direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques. Formation of response surfaces using derivative data and the propagation of input probability distributions are discussed relative to their role in the DUA method. A sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. Propogation of uncertainties by the DUA method is compared for ten cases in which the number of reference model runs was varied from one to ten. The DUA method gives a more accurate representation of the true cumulative distribution of the flow rate based upon as few as two model executions compared to fifty model executions using a statistical approach. 16 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  14. Latent uncertainties of the precalculated track Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud, Marc-André; Seuntjens, Jan; Roberge, David

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: While significant progress has been made in speeding up Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation methods, they remain too time-consuming for the purpose of inverse planning. To achieve clinically usable calculation speeds, a precalculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport was developed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs). The algorithm utilizes pregenerated particle track data from conventional MC codes for different materials such as water, bone, and lung to produce dose distributions in voxelized phantoms. While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from the limited number of unique tracks in the pregenerated track bank is missing from the paper. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal number of tracks in the pregenerated track bank can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pregenerated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4 and saved in a database. The PMC algorithm for track selection, rotation, and transport was implemented on the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) 4.0 programming framework. PMC dose distributions were calculated in a variety of media and compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated from the corresponding general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty metric was defined and analysis was performed by varying the pregenerated track bank size and the number of simulated primary particle histories and comparing dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark dose distribution calculated to 0.04% average uncertainty in voxels with dose greater than 20% of D max . Efficiency metrics were calculated against benchmark MC codes on a single CPU core with no variance reduction. Results: Dose distributions generated using PMC and benchmark MC codes were compared and found to be within 2% of each other in voxels with dose values greater than 20% of the

  15. Latent uncertainties of the precalculated track Monte Carlo method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renaud, Marc-André; Seuntjens, Jan [Medical Physics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1A4 (Canada); Roberge, David [Département de radio-oncologie, Centre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec H2L 4M1 (Canada)

    2015-01-15

    Purpose: While significant progress has been made in speeding up Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation methods, they remain too time-consuming for the purpose of inverse planning. To achieve clinically usable calculation speeds, a precalculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport was developed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs). The algorithm utilizes pregenerated particle track data from conventional MC codes for different materials such as water, bone, and lung to produce dose distributions in voxelized phantoms. While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from the limited number of unique tracks in the pregenerated track bank is missing from the paper. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal number of tracks in the pregenerated track bank can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pregenerated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4 and saved in a database. The PMC algorithm for track selection, rotation, and transport was implemented on the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) 4.0 programming framework. PMC dose distributions were calculated in a variety of media and compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated from the corresponding general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty metric was defined and analysis was performed by varying the pregenerated track bank size and the number of simulated primary particle histories and comparing dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark dose distribution calculated to 0.04% average uncertainty in voxels with dose greater than 20% of D{sub max}. Efficiency metrics were calculated against benchmark MC codes on a single CPU core with no variance reduction. Results: Dose distributions generated using PMC and benchmark MC codes were compared and found to be within 2% of each other in voxels with dose values greater than 20% of

  16. Efforts to standardize wildlife toxicity values remain unrealized.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayfield, David B; Fairbrother, Anne

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife toxicity reference values (TRVs) are routinely used during screening level and baseline ecological risk assessments (ERAs). Risk assessment professionals often adopt TRVs from published sources to expedite risk analyses. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) developed ecological soil screening levels (Eco-SSLs) to provide a source of TRVs that would improve consistency among risk assessments. We conducted a survey and evaluated more than 50 publicly available, large-scale ERAs published in the last decade to evaluate if USEPA's goal of uniformity in the use of wildlife TRVs has been met. In addition, these ERAs were reviewed to understand current practices for wildlife TRV use and development within the risk assessment community. The use of no observed and lowest observed adverse effect levels culled from published compendia was common practice among the majority of ERAs reviewed. We found increasing use over time of TRVs established in the Eco-SSL documents; however, Eco-SSL TRV values were not used in the majority of recent ERAs and there continues to be wide variation in TRVs for commonly studied contaminants (e.g., metals, pesticides, PAHs, and PCBs). Variability in the toxicity values was driven by differences in the key studies selected, dose estimation methods, and use of uncertainty factors. These differences result in TRVs that span multiple orders of magnitude for many of the chemicals examined. This lack of consistency in TRV development leads to highly variable results in ecological risk assessments conducted throughout the United States. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  17. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  18. Uncertainty quantification and stochastic modeling with Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Souza de Cursi, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a relatively new research area which describes the methods and approaches used to supply quantitative descriptions of the effects of uncertainty, variability and errors in simulation problems and models. It is rapidly becoming a field of increasing importance, with many real-world applications within statistics, mathematics, probability and engineering, but also within the natural sciences. Literature on the topic has up until now been largely based on polynomial chaos, which raises difficulties when considering different types of approximation and does no

  19. On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lindsay A; Reddington, Carly L; Carslaw, Kenneth S

    2016-05-24

    The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple "equifinal" models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model-observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness.

  20. Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chojnacki, Eric

    2002-01-01

    After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory

  1. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear-reactor-safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  2. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear reactor safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  3. Small break LOCA RELAP5/MOD3 uncertainty quantification: Bias and uncertainty evaluation for important phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, M.G.; Ghan, L.S.; Vogl, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) revised the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) licensing rule to allow the use of Best Estimate (BE) computer codes, provided the uncertainty of the calculations are quantified and used in the licensing and regulation process. The NRC developed a generic methodology called Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) to evaluate BE code uncertainties. The CSAU methodology was demonstrated with a specific application to a pressurized water reactor (PWR), experiencing a postulated large break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA). The current work is part of an effort to adapt and demonstrate the CSAU methodology to a small break (SB) LOCA in a PWR of B and W design using RELAP5/MOD3 as the simulation tool. The subject of this paper is the Assessment and Ranging of Parameters (Element 2 of the CSAU methodology), which determines the contribution to uncertainty of specific models in the code

  4. Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G.; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if

  5. Assignment of uncertainties to scientific data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froehner, F.H.

    1994-01-01

    Long-standing problems of uncertainty assignment to scientific data came into a sharp focus in recent years when uncertainty information ('covariance files') had to be added to application-oriented large libraries of evaluated nuclear data such as ENDF and JEF. Question arouse about the best way to express uncertainties, the meaning of statistical and systematic errors, the origin of correlation and construction of covariance matrices, the combination of uncertain data from different sources, the general usefulness of results that are strictly valid only for Gaussian or only for linear statistical models, etc. Conventional statistical theory is often unable to give unambiguous answers, and tends to fail when statistics is bad so that prior information becomes crucial. Modern probability theory, on the other hand, incorporating decision information becomes group-theoretic results, is shown to provide straight and unique answers to such questions, and to deal easily with prior information and small samples. (author). 10 refs

  6. Assessing flood forecast uncertainty with fuzzy arithmetic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruyn Bertrand

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing forecasts for flow rates and water levels during floods have to be associated with uncertainty estimates. The forecast sources of uncertainty are plural. For hydrological forecasts (rainfall-runoff performed using a deterministic hydrological model with basic physics, two main sources can be identified. The first obvious source is the forcing data: rainfall forecast data are supplied in real time by meteorological forecasting services to the Flood Forecasting Service within a range between a lowest and a highest predicted discharge. These two values define an uncertainty interval for the rainfall variable provided on a given watershed. The second source of uncertainty is related to the complexity of the modeled system (the catchment impacted by the hydro-meteorological phenomenon, the number of variables that may describe the problem and their spatial and time variability. The model simplifies the system by reducing the number of variables to a few parameters. Thus it contains an intrinsic uncertainty. This model uncertainty is assessed by comparing simulated and observed rates for a large number of hydro-meteorological events. We propose a method based on fuzzy arithmetic to estimate the possible range of flow rates (and levels of water making a forecast based on possible rainfalls provided by forcing and uncertainty model. The model uncertainty is here expressed as a range of possible values. Both rainfall and model uncertainties are combined with fuzzy arithmetic. This method allows to evaluate the prediction uncertainty range. The Flood Forecasting Service of Oise and Aisne rivers, in particular, monitors the upstream watershed of the Oise at Hirson. This watershed’s area is 310 km2. Its response time is about 10 hours. Several hydrological models are calibrated for flood forecasting in this watershed and use the rainfall forecast. This method presents the advantage to be easily implemented. Moreover, it permits to be carried out

  7. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    confidence interval under different assumptions regarding the data structure. The results stress the importance to invoke statistical methods and also illustrate how the choice of a wrong methodology may affect the quality of risk assessment and foundations for decision making. The uncertainty in assessing the volume of contaminated soil was shown to be dependant only to a low extent on the interpolation technique used for the specific case study analyzed. It is, however, expected that the uncertainty may increase significantly, if more restrictive risk criteria (lower guideline value) are applied. Despite a possible low uncertainty in assessing the contaminated soil volume, the uncertainty in its localization can be substantial. Based on the demo example presented, it comes out that the risk-based input for decision on soil treatment may vary depending on what assumptions were adopted during interpolation process. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation till spatial distribution of contaminant has been demonstrated by studies on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). The results from numerical simulations show that a lack in knowledge on the receptor moving routes may bring about substantial uncertainty in exposure assessment. The presented concept is mainly applicable for 'mobile' receptors on relatively large areas. A number of statistical definitions/methods/concepts are presented in the report of which some are not elaborated on in detail, while readers are referred to proper literature. The mail goal with the study has been rather to shed more light on aspects related to uncertainty in risk assessment and to demonstrate potential consequences of wrong approach than to provide readers with formal guideline and recommendations. However, the outcome from the study will hopefully contribute to the further work on novel approaches towards more reliable risk assessments

  8. Uncertainty in reactive transport geochemical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oedegaard-Jensen, A.; Ekberg, C.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Geochemical modelling is one way of predicting the transport of i.e. radionuclides in a rock formation. In a rock formation there will be fractures in which water and dissolved species can be transported. The composition of the water and the rock can either increase or decrease the mobility of the transported entities. When doing simulations on the mobility or transport of different species one has to know the exact water composition, the exact flow rates in the fracture and in the surrounding rock, the porosity and which minerals the rock is composed of. The problem with simulations on rocks is that the rock itself it not uniform i.e. larger fractures in some areas and smaller in other areas which can give different water flows. The rock composition can be different in different areas. In additions to this variance in the rock there are also problems with measuring the physical parameters used in a simulation. All measurements will perturb the rock and this perturbation will results in more or less correct values of the interesting parameters. The analytical methods used are also encumbered with uncertainties which in this case are added to the uncertainty from the perturbation of the analysed parameters. When doing simulation the effect of the uncertainties must be taken into account. As the computers are getting faster and faster the complexity of simulated systems are increased which also increase the uncertainty in the results from the simulations. In this paper we will show how the uncertainty in the different parameters will effect the solubility and mobility of different species. Small uncertainties in the input parameters can result in large uncertainties in the end. (authors)

  9. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  10. Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change…and conversely

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cooke, R.M.

    2012-01-01

    This article traces the development of uncertainty analysis through three generations punctuated by large methodology investments in the nuclear sector. Driven by a very high perceived legitimation burden, these investments aimed at strengthening the scientific basis of uncertainty quantification.

  11. Investment and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greasley, David; Madsen, Jakob B.

    2006-01-01

    A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890-2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty...... surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility, were the chief influences on investment levels, and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930. Investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset...

  12. Optimization under Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Lopez, Rafael H.

    2016-01-06

    The goal of this poster is to present the main approaches to optimization of engineering systems in the presence of uncertainties. We begin by giving an insight about robust optimization. Next, we detail how to deal with probabilistic constraints in optimization, the so called the reliability based design. Subsequently, we present the risk optimization approach, which includes the expected costs of failure in the objective function. After that the basic description of each approach is given, the projects developed by CORE are presented. Finally, the main current topic of research of CORE is described.

  13. Optimizing production under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend

    This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept...... of state-contingent production functions and a definition of inputs including both sort of input, activity and alloca-tion technology. It also analyses production decisions where production is combined with trading in state-contingent claims such as insurance contracts. The final part discusses...

  14. Commonplaces and social uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Inger

    2008-01-01

    This article explores the concept of uncertainty in four focus group discussions about genetically modified food. In the discussions, members of the general public interact with food biotechnology scientists while negotiating their attitudes towards genetic engineering. Their discussions offer...... an example of risk discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature (Myers 2004: 81). My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes (Barton 1999) and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating...

  15. Principles of Uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Kadane, Joseph B

    2011-01-01

    An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics -- the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discus

  16. Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel GARRIDO

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.

  17. Uncertainty Quantification in High Throughput Screening ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using uncertainty quantification, we aim to improve the quality of modeling data from high throughput screening assays for use in risk assessment. ToxCast is a large-scale screening program that analyzes thousands of chemicals using over 800 assays representing hundreds of biochemical and cellular processes, including endocrine disruption, cytotoxicity, and zebrafish development. Over 2.6 million concentration response curves are fit to models to extract parameters related to potency and efficacy. Models built on ToxCast results are being used to rank and prioritize the toxicological risk of tested chemicals and to predict the toxicity of tens of thousands of chemicals not yet tested in vivo. However, the data size also presents challenges. When fitting the data, the choice of models, model selection strategy, and hit call criteria must reflect the need for computational efficiency and robustness, requiring hard and somewhat arbitrary cutoffs. When coupled with unavoidable noise in the experimental concentration response data, these hard cutoffs cause uncertainty in model parameters and the hit call itself. The uncertainty will then propagate through all of the models built on the data. Left unquantified, this uncertainty makes it difficult to fully interpret the data for risk assessment. We used bootstrap resampling methods to quantify the uncertainty in fitting models to the concentration response data. Bootstrap resampling determines confidence intervals for

  18. Uncertainties in Organ Burdens Estimated from PAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Bone, T.R.

    2004-01-01

    To calculate committed effective dose equivalent, one needs to know the quantity of the radionuclide in all significantly irradiated organs (the organ burden) as a function of time following the intake. There are two major sources of uncertainty in an organ burden estimated from personal air sampling (PAS) data: (1) The uncertainty in going from the exposure measured with the PAS to the quantity of aerosol inhaled by the individual, and (2) The uncertainty in going from the intake to the organ burdens at any given time, taking into consideration the biological variability of the biokinetic models from person to person (interperson variability) and in one person over time (intra-person variability). We have been using biokinetic modeling methods developed by researchers at the University of Florida to explore the impact of inter-person variability on the uncertainty of organ burdens estimated from PAS data. These initial studies suggest that the uncertainties are so large that PAS might be considered to be a qualitative (rather than quantitative) technique. These results indicate that more studies should be performed to properly classify the reliability and usefulness of using PAS monitoring data to estimate organ burdens, organ dose, and ultimately CEDE

  19. Assessing Groundwater Model Uncertainty for the Central Nevada Test Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohll, Greg; Pohlmann, Karl; Hassan, Ahmed; Chapman, Jenny; Mihevc, Todd

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to quantify the flow and transport model uncertainty for the Central Nevada Test Area (CNTA). Six parameters were identified as uncertain, including the specified head boundary conditions used in the flow model, the spatial distribution of the underlying welded tuff unit, effective porosity, sorption coefficients, matrix diffusion coefficient, and the geochemical release function which describes nuclear glass dissolution. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior statistical distributions for each of these parameters. Standard Monte Carlo techniques were used to sample from the parameter distributions to determine the full prediction uncertainty. Additional analysis is performed to determine the most cost-beneficial characterization activities. The maximum radius of the tritium and strontium-90 contaminant boundary was used as the output metric for evaluation of prediction uncertainty. The results indicate that combining all of the uncertainty in the parameters listed above propagates to a prediction uncertainty in the maximum radius of the contaminant boundary of 234 to 308 m and 234 to 302 m, for tritium and strontium-90, respectively. Although the uncertainty in the input parameters is large, the prediction uncertainty in the contaminant boundary is relatively small. The relatively small prediction uncertainty is primarily due to the small transport velocities such that large changes in the uncertain input parameters causes small changes in the contaminant boundary. This suggests that the model is suitable in terms of predictive capability for the contaminant boundary delineation

  20. Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties for fusion power measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sjöstrand Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Neutron measurements using neutron activation systems are an essential part of the diagnostic system at large fusion machines such as JET and ITER. Nuclear data is used to infer the neutron yield. Consequently, high-quality nuclear data is essential for the proper determination of the neutron yield and fusion power. However, uncertainties due to nuclear data are not fully taken into account in uncertainty analysis for neutron yield calibrations using activation foils. This paper investigates the neutron yield uncertainty due to nuclear data using the so-called Total Monte Carlo Method. The work is performed using a detailed MCNP model of the JET fusion machine; the uncertainties due to the cross-sections and angular distributions in JET structural materials, as well as the activation cross-sections in the activation foils, are analysed. It is found that a significant contribution to the neutron yield uncertainty can come from uncertainties in the nuclear data.

  1. Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, Christopher J.; Paul, Frank; Popp, Thomas; Ablain, Michael; Bontemps, Sophie; Defourny, Pierre; Hollmann, Rainer; Lavergne, Thomas; Laeng, Alexandra; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Mittaz, Jonathan; Poulsen, Caroline; Povey, Adam C.; Reuter, Max; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Sandven, Stein; Sofieva, Viktoria F.; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2017-07-01

    The question of how to derive and present uncertainty information in climate data records (CDRs) has received sustained attention within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (CCI), a programme to generate CDRs addressing a range of essential climate variables (ECVs) from satellite data. Here, we review the nature, mathematics, practicalities, and communication of uncertainty information in CDRs from Earth observations. This review paper argues that CDRs derived from satellite-based Earth observation (EO) should include rigorous uncertainty information to support the application of the data in contexts such as policy, climate modelling, and numerical weather prediction reanalysis. Uncertainty, error, and quality are distinct concepts, and the case is made that CDR products should follow international metrological norms for presenting quantified uncertainty. As a baseline for good practice, total standard uncertainty should be quantified per datum in a CDR, meaning that uncertainty estimates should clearly discriminate more and less certain data. In this case, flags for data quality should not duplicate uncertainty information, but instead describe complementary information (such as the confidence in the uncertainty estimate provided or indicators of conditions violating the retrieval assumptions). The paper discusses the many sources of error in CDRs, noting that different errors may be correlated across a wide range of timescales and space scales. Error effects that contribute negligibly to the total uncertainty in a single-satellite measurement can be the dominant sources of uncertainty in a CDR on the large space scales and long timescales that are highly relevant for some climate applications. For this reason, identifying and characterizing the relevant sources of uncertainty for CDRs is particularly challenging. The characterization of uncertainty caused by a given error effect involves assessing the magnitude of the effect, the shape of the

  2. Calculation of design uncertainties for the development of fusion reactor blankets, taking into account uncertainties in nuclear data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The use is demonstrated of the newly developed ECN-SUSD sensitivity/uncertainty code system. With ECN-SUSD it is possible to calculate uncertainties in response parameters in fixed source calculations due to cross section uncertainties (using MF33) as well as to uncertainties in angular distributions (using MF34). It is shown that the latter contribution, which is generally neglected because of the lack of MF34-data in modern evaluations (except for EFF), is large in fusion reactor shielding calculations. (orig.)

  3. Investment, regulation, and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose

    2014-01-01

    As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases.   This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745

  4. Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

  5. Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K

    2017-12-01

    Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

  6. Oil price uncertainty in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2009-11-15

    Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)

  7. Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.

    2011-01-01

    In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.

  8. Methods for handling uncertainty within pharmaceutical funding decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Matt; Tappenden, Paul; Squires, Hazel

    2014-01-01

    This article provides a position statement regarding decision making under uncertainty within the economic evaluation of pharmaceuticals, with a particular focus upon the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence context within England and Wales. This area is of importance as funding agencies have a finite budget from which to purchase a selection of competing health care interventions. The objective function generally used is that of maximising societal health with an explicit acknowledgement that there will be opportunity costs associated with purchasing a particular intervention. Three components of uncertainty are discussed within a pharmaceutical funding perspective: methodological uncertainty, parameter uncertainty and structural uncertainty, alongside a discussion of challenges that are particularly pertinent to health economic evaluation. The discipline has focused primarily on handling methodological and parameter uncertainty and a clear reference case has been developed for consistency across evaluations. However, uncertainties still remain. Less attention has been given to methods for handling structural uncertainty. The lack of adequate methods to explicitly incorporate this aspect of model development may result in the true uncertainty surrounding health care investment decisions being underestimated. Research in this area is ongoing as we review.

  9. Visualizing Uncertainty of Point Phenomena by Redesigned Error Ellipses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Christian E.

    2018-05-01

    Visualizing uncertainty remains one of the great challenges in modern cartography. There is no overarching strategy to display the nature of uncertainty, as an effective and efficient visualization depends, besides on the spatial data feature type, heavily on the type of uncertainty. This work presents a design strategy to visualize uncertainty con-nected to point features. The error ellipse, well-known from mathematical statistics, is adapted to display the uncer-tainty of point information originating from spatial generalization. Modified designs of the error ellipse show the po-tential of quantitative and qualitative symbolization and simultaneous point based uncertainty symbolization. The user can intuitively depict the centers of gravity, the major orientation of the point arrays as well as estimate the ex-tents and possible spatial distributions of multiple point phenomena. The error ellipse represents uncertainty in an intuitive way, particularly suitable for laymen. Furthermore it is shown how applicable an adapted design of the er-ror ellipse is to display the uncertainty of point features originating from incomplete data. The suitability of the error ellipse to display the uncertainty of point information is demonstrated within two showcases: (1) the analysis of formations of association football players, and (2) uncertain positioning of events on maps for the media.

  10. Uncertainty estimation with a small number of measurements, part II: a redefinition of uncertainty and an estimator method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hening

    2018-01-01

    This paper is the second (Part II) in a series of two papers (Part I and Part II). Part I has quantitatively discussed the fundamental limitations of the t-interval method for uncertainty estimation with a small number of measurements. This paper (Part II) reveals that the t-interval is an ‘exact’ answer to a wrong question; it is actually misused in uncertainty estimation. This paper proposes a redefinition of uncertainty, based on the classical theory of errors and the theory of point estimation, and a modification of the conventional approach to estimating measurement uncertainty. It also presents an asymptotic procedure for estimating the z-interval. The proposed modification is to replace the t-based uncertainty with an uncertainty estimator (mean- or median-unbiased). The uncertainty estimator method is an approximate answer to the right question to uncertainty estimation. The modified approach provides realistic estimates of uncertainty, regardless of whether the population standard deviation is known or unknown, or if the sample size is small or large. As an application example of the modified approach, this paper presents a resolution to the Du-Yang paradox (i.e. Paradox 2), one of the three paradoxes caused by the misuse of the t-interval in uncertainty estimation.

  11. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing climate change impacts often requires the use of multiple scenarios, types of models, and data sources, leading to a large number of potential sources of uncertainty. For example, a single study might require a choice of a forcing scenario, climate model, bias correction and/or downscaling method, societal development scenario, model (typically several) for quantifying elements of societal development such as economic and population growth, biophysical model (such as for crop yields or hydrology), and societal impact model (e.g. economic or health model). Some sources of uncertainty are reduced or eliminated by the framing of the question. For example, it may be useful to ask what an impact outcome would be conditional on a given societal development pathway, forcing scenario, or policy. However many sources of uncertainty remain, and it is rare for all or even most of these sources to be accounted for. I use the example of a recent integrated project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) to explore useful approaches to uncertainty across multiple components of an impact assessment. BRACE comprises 23 papers that assess the differences in impacts between two alternative climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. It quantifies difference in impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it includes climate modeling, statistical analysis, integrated assessment modeling, and sector-specific impact modeling. It employs alternative scenarios of both radiative forcing and societal development, but generally uses a single climate model (CESM), partially accounting for climate uncertainty by drawing heavily on large initial condition ensembles. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach to uncertainty in BRACE are assessed. Options under consideration for improving the approach include the use of perturbed physics

  12. Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redei, Miklos

    1987-01-01

    The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs

  13. Uncertainty as Certaint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzinger, Tom

    I am trying to make money in the biotech industry from complexity science. And I am doing it with inspiration that I picked up on the edge of Appalachia spending time with June Holley and ACEnet when I was a Wall Street Journal reporter. I took some of those ideas to Pittsburgh, in biotechnology, in a completely private setting with an economic development focus, but also with a mission t o return profit to private capital. And we are doing that. I submit as a hypothesis, something we are figuring out in the post- industrial era, that business evolves. It is not the definition of business, but business critically involves the design of systems in which uncertainty is treated as a certainty. That is what I have seen and what I have tried to put into practice.

  14. DOD ELAP Lab Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    ISO / IEC   17025  Inspection Bodies – ISO / IEC  17020  RMPs – ISO  Guide 34 (Reference...certify to :  ISO  9001 (QMS),  ISO  14001 (EMS),   TS 16949 (US Automotive)  etc. 2 3 DoD QSM 4.2 standard   ISO / IEC   17025 :2005  Each has uncertainty...IPV6, NLLAP, NEFAP  TRAINING Programs  Certification Bodies – ISO / IEC  17021  Accreditation for  Management System 

  15. Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

    2004-01-01

    . The project partnership aims (composed by 7 partners in 5 countries, thus covering a real European spread in high tech production technology) to develop and implement an advanced e-learning system that integrates contributions from quite different disciplines into a user-centred approach that strictly....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e-learning......This report is made as a part of the project ‘Metro-E-Learn: European e-Learning in Manufacturing Metrology’, an EU project under the program SOCRATES MINERVA (ODL and ICT in Education), Contract No: 101434-CP-1-2002-1-DE-MINERVA, coordinated by Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen...

  16. Decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized

  17. Sustainability and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2007-01-01

    The widely used concept of sustainability is seldom precisely defined, and its clarification involves making up one's mind about a range of difficult questions. One line of research (bottom-up) takes sustaining a system over time as its starting point and then infers prescriptions from...... this requirement. Another line (top-down) takes an economical interpretation of the Brundtland Commission's suggestion that the present generation's needsatisfaction should not compromise the need-satisfaction of future generations as its starting point. It then measures sustainability at the level of society...... a clarified ethical goal, disagreements can arise. At present we do not know what substitutions will be possible in the future. This uncertainty clearly affects the prescriptions that follow from the measure of sustainability. Consequently, decisions about how to make future agriculture sustainable...

  18. Fossil human remains from Bolomor Cave (Valencia, Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsuaga, Juan Luis; Fernández Peris, Josep; Gracia-Téllez, Ana; Quam, Rolf; Carretero, José Miguel; Barciela González, Virginia; Blasco, Ruth; Cuartero, Felipe; Sañudo, Pablo

    2012-05-01

    Systematic excavations carried out since 1989 at Bolomor Cave have led to the recovery of four Pleistocene human fossil remains, consisting of a fibular fragment, two isolated teeth, and a nearly complete adult parietal bone. All of these specimens date to the late Middle and early Late Pleistocene (MIS 7-5e). The fibular fragment shows thick cortical bone, an archaic feature found in non-modern (i.e. non-Homo sapiens) members of the genus Homo. Among the dental remains, the lack of a midtrigonid crest in the M(1) represents a departure from the morphology reported for the majority of Neandertal specimens, while the large dimensions and pronounced shoveling of the marginal ridges in the C(1) are similar to other European Middle and late Pleistocene fossils. The parietal bone is very thick, with dimensions that generally fall above Neandertal fossils and resemble more closely the Middle Pleistocene Atapuerca (SH) adult specimens. Based on the presence of archaic features, all the fossils from Bolomor are attributed to the Neandertal evolutionary lineage. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A new approach to reduce uncertainties in space radiation cancer risk predictions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis A Cucinotta

    Full Text Available The prediction of space radiation induced cancer risk carries large uncertainties with two of the largest uncertainties being radiation quality and dose-rate effects. In risk models the ratio of the quality factor (QF to the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF parameter is used to scale organ doses for cosmic ray proton and high charge and energy (HZE particles to a hazard rate for γ-rays derived from human epidemiology data. In previous work, particle track structure concepts were used to formulate a space radiation QF function that is dependent on particle charge number Z, and kinetic energy per atomic mass unit, E. QF uncertainties where represented by subjective probability distribution functions (PDF for the three QF parameters that described its maximum value and shape parameters for Z and E dependences. Here I report on an analysis of a maximum QF parameter and its uncertainty using mouse tumor induction data. Because experimental data for risks at low doses of γ-rays are highly uncertain which impacts estimates of maximum values of relative biological effectiveness (RBEmax, I developed an alternate QF model, denoted QFγAcute where QFs are defined relative to higher acute γ-ray doses (0.5 to 3 Gy. The alternate model reduces the dependence of risk projections on the DDREF, however a DDREF is still needed for risk estimates for high-energy protons and other primary or secondary sparsely ionizing space radiation components. Risk projections (upper confidence levels (CL for space missions show a reduction of about 40% (CL∼50% using the QFγAcute model compared the QFs based on RBEmax and about 25% (CL∼35% compared to previous estimates. In addition, I discuss how a possible qualitative difference leading to increased tumor lethality for HZE particles compared to low LET radiation and background tumors remains a large uncertainty in risk estimates.

  20. An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2009-01-01

    Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

  1. Perceptual uncertainty supports design reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Winger S. W.

    2018-06-01

    The unstructured, ambiguous figures used as design cues in the experiment were classified as being at high, moderate, and low ambiguity. Participants were required to use the ideas suggested by the visual cues to design a novel table. Results showed that different levels of ambiguity within the cues significantly influenced the quantity of idea development of expert designers, but not novice designers, whose idea generation remained relatively low across all levels of ambiguity. For experts, as the level of ambiguity in the cue increased so did the number of design ideas that were generated. Most design interpretations created by both experts and novices were affected by geometric contours within the figures. In addition, when viewing cues of high ambiguity, experts produced more interpretative transformations than when viewing cues of moderate or low ambiguity. Furthermore, experts produced significantly more new functions or meanings than novices. We claim that increased ambiguity within presented visual cues engenders uncertainty in designers that facilitates flexible transformations and interpretations that prevent premature commitment to uncreative solutions. Such results could be applied in design learning and education, focused on differences between experts and novices, to generalize the principles and strategies of interpretations by experts during concept sketching to train novices when face design problems, and the development of CACD tools to support designers.

  2. Risk Management and Uncertainty in Infrastructure Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harty, Chris; Neerup Themsen, Tim; Tryggestad, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The assumption that large complex projects should be managed in order to reduce uncertainty and increase predictability is not new. What is relatively new, however, is that uncertainty reduction can and should be obtained through formal risk management approaches. We question both assumptions...... by addressing a more fundamental question about the role of knowledge in current risk management practices. Inquiries into the predominant approaches to risk management in large infrastructure and construction projects reveal their assumptions about knowledge and we discuss the ramifications these have...... for project and construction management. Our argument and claim is that predominant risk management approaches tends to reinforce conventional ideas of project control whilst undermining other notions of value and relevance of built assets and project management process. These approaches fail to consider...

  3. Essays on model uncertainty in financial models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Jing

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation studies model uncertainty, particularly in financial models. It consists of two empirical chapters and one theoretical chapter. The first empirical chapter (Chapter 2) classifies model uncertainty into parameter uncertainty and misspecification uncertainty. It investigates the

  4. A new uncertainty importance measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.

    2007-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameters is present in many risk assessment problems and leads to uncertainty in model predictions. In this work, we introduce a global sensitivity indicator which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output (moment independence) and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. We discuss its mathematical properties and highlight the differences between the present indicator, variance-based uncertainty importance measures and a moment independent sensitivity indicator previously introduced in the literature. Numerical results are discussed with application to the probabilistic risk assessment model on which Iman [A matrix-based approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for fault trees. Risk Anal 1987;7(1):22-33] first introduced uncertainty importance measures

  5. Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Fantke, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty is always there and LCA is no exception to that. The presence of uncertainties of different types and from numerous sources in LCA results is a fact, but managing them allows to quantify and improve the precision of a study and the robustness of its conclusions. LCA practice sometimes...... suffers from an imbalanced perception of uncertainties, justifying modelling choices and omissions. Identifying prevalent misconceptions around uncertainties in LCA is a central goal of this chapter, aiming to establish a positive approach focusing on the advantages of uncertainty management. The main...... objectives of this chapter are to learn how to deal with uncertainty in the context of LCA, how to quantify it, interpret and use it, and how to communicate it. The subject is approached more holistically than just focusing on relevant statistical methods or purely mathematical aspects. This chapter...

  6. Additivity of entropic uncertainty relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Schwonnek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We consider the uncertainty between two pairs of local projective measurements performed on a multipartite system. We show that the optimal bound in any linear uncertainty relation, formulated in terms of the Shannon entropy, is additive. This directly implies, against naive intuition, that the minimal entropic uncertainty can always be realized by fully separable states. Hence, in contradiction to proposals by other authors, no entanglement witness can be constructed solely by comparing the attainable uncertainties of entangled and separable states. However, our result gives rise to a huge simplification for computing global uncertainty bounds as they now can be deduced from local ones. Furthermore, we provide the natural generalization of the Maassen and Uffink inequality for linear uncertainty relations with arbitrary positive coefficients.

  7. Propagation of radar rainfall uncertainty in urban flood simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Sara; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel

    2013-04-01

    This work discusses the results of the implementation of a novel probabilistic system designed to improve ensemble sewer flow predictions for the drainage network of a small urban area in the North of England. The probabilistic system has been developed to model the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall estimates and propagate it through radar-based ensemble sewer flow predictions. The assessment of this system aims at outlining the benefits of addressing the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall estimates in a probabilistic framework, to be potentially implemented in the real-time management of the sewer network in the study area. Radar rainfall estimates are affected by uncertainty due to various factors [1-3] and quality control and correction techniques have been developed in order to improve their accuracy. However, the hydrological use of radar rainfall estimates and forecasts remains challenging. A significant effort has been devoted by the international research community to the assessment of the uncertainty propagation through probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecast systems [4-5], and various approaches have been implemented for the purpose of characterizing the uncertainty in radar rainfall estimates and forecasts [6-11]. A radar-based ensemble stochastic approach, similar to the one implemented for use in the Southern-Alps by the REAL system [6], has been developed for the purpose of this work. An ensemble generator has been calibrated on the basis of the spatial-temporal characteristics of the residual error in radar estimates assessed with reference to rainfall records from around 200 rain gauges available for the year 2007, previously post-processed and corrected by the UK Met Office [12-13]. Each ensemble member is determined by summing a perturbation field to the unperturbed radar rainfall field. The perturbations are generated by imposing the radar error spatial and temporal correlation structure to purely stochastic fields. A

  8. Validity of WTP measures under preference uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Kniebes, Carola; Rehdanz, Katrin; Schmidt, Ulrich

    2014-01-01

    This paper establishes a new method for eliciting Willingness to Pay (WTP) in contingent valuation (CV) studies with an open-ended elicitation format: the Range-WTP method. In contrast to the traditional approach for eliciting Point-WTP, Range-WTP explicitly allows for preference uncertainty in responses. Using data from two novel large-scale surveys on the perception of solar radiation management (SRM), a little-known technique for counteracting climate change, we compare the performance of ...

  9. Calibration and Propagation of Uncertainty for Independence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holland, Troy Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Kress, Joel David [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Bhat, Kabekode Ghanasham [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-06-30

    This document reports on progress and methods for the calibration and uncertainty quantification of the Independence model developed at UT Austin. The Independence model is an advanced thermodynamic and process model framework for piperazine solutions as a high-performance CO2 capture solvent. Progress is presented in the framework of the CCSI standard basic data model inference framework. Recent work has largely focused on the thermodynamic submodels of Independence.

  10. Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian STANCU

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

  11. Neural Correlates of Intolerance of Uncertainty in Clinical Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wever, Mirjam; Smeets, Paul; Sternheim, Lot

    2015-01-01

    Intolerance of uncertainty is a key contributor to anxiety-related disorders. Recent studies highlight its importance in other clinical disorders. The link between its clinical presentation and the underlying neural correlates remains unclear. This review summarizes the emerging literature on the neural correlates of intolerance of uncertainty. In conclusion, studies focusing on the neural correlates of this construct are sparse, and findings are inconsistent across disorders. Future research should identify neural correlates of intolerance of uncertainty in more detail. This may unravel the neurobiology of a wide variety of clinical disorders and pave the way for novel therapeutic targets.

  12. "Recent" macrofossil remains from the Lomonosov Ridge, central Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Duc, Cynthia; de Vernal, Anne; Archambault, Philippe; Brice, Camille; Roberge, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    The examination of surface sediment samples collected from 17 sites along the Lomonosov Ridge at water depths ranging from 737 to 3339 meters during Polarstern Expedition PS87 in 2014 (Stein, 2015), indicates a rich biogenic content almost exclusively dominated by calcareous remains. Amongst biogenic remains, microfossils (planktic and benthic foraminifers, pteropods, ostracods, etc.) dominate but millimetric to centrimetric macrofossils occurred frequently at the surface of the sediment. The macrofossil remains consist of a large variety of taxa, including gastropods, bivalvia, polychaete tubes, scaphopods, echinoderm plates and spines, and fish otoliths. Among the Bivalvia, the most abundant taxa are Portlandia arctica, Hyalopecten frigidus, Cuspidaria glacilis, Policordia densicostata, Bathyarca spp., and Yoldiella spp. Whereas a few specimens are well preserved and apparently pristine, most mollusk shells displayed extensive alteration features. Moreover, most shells were covered by millimeter scale tubes of the serpulid polychaete Spirorbis sp. suggesting transport from low intertidal or subtidal zone. Both the ecological affinity and known geographic distribution of identified bivalvia as named above support the hypothesis of transportation rather than local development. In addition to mollusk shells, more than a hundred fish otoliths were recovered in surface sediments. The otoliths mostly belong to the Gadidae family. Most of them are well preserved and without serpulid tubes attached to their surface, suggesting a local/regional origin, unlike the shell remains. Although recovered at the surface, the macrofaunal assemblages of the Lomonosov Ridge do not necessarily represent the "modern" environments as they may result from reworking and because their occurrence at the surface of the sediment may also be due to winnowing of finer particles. Although the shells were not dated, we suspect that their actual ages may range from modern to several thousands of

  13. Decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This status report on Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). The report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems. (authors)

  14. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.

    2016-01-01

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  15. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib

    2016-01-05

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  16. The Uncertainty of Measurement Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ambrus, A. [Hungarian Food Safety Office, Budapest (Hungary)

    2009-07-15

    Factors affecting the uncertainty of measurement are explained, basic statistical formulae given, and the theoretical concept explained in the context of pesticide formulation analysis. Practical guidance is provided on how to determine individual uncertainty components within an analytical procedure. An extended and comprehensive table containing the relevant mathematical/statistical expressions elucidates the relevant underlying principles. Appendix I provides a practical elaborated example on measurement uncertainty estimation, above all utilizing experimental repeatability and reproducibility laboratory data. (author)

  17. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  18. Multi-scenario modelling of uncertainty in stochastic chemical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R. David; Ricardez-Sandoval, Luis A.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty analysis has not been well studied at the molecular scale, despite extensive knowledge of uncertainty in macroscale systems. The ability to predict the effect of uncertainty allows for robust control of small scale systems such as nanoreactors, surface reactions, and gene toggle switches. However, it is difficult to model uncertainty in such chemical systems as they are stochastic in nature, and require a large computational cost. To address this issue, a new model of uncertainty propagation in stochastic chemical systems, based on the Chemical Master Equation, is proposed in the present study. The uncertain solution is approximated by a composite state comprised of the averaged effect of samples from the uncertain parameter distributions. This model is then used to study the effect of uncertainty on an isomerization system and a two gene regulation network called a repressilator. The results of this model show that uncertainty in stochastic systems is dependent on both the uncertain distribution, and the system under investigation. -- Highlights: •A method to model uncertainty on stochastic systems was developed. •The method is based on the Chemical Master Equation. •Uncertainty in an isomerization reaction and a gene regulation network was modelled. •Effects were significant and dependent on the uncertain input and reaction system. •The model was computationally more efficient than Kinetic Monte Carlo

  19. Generalized uncertainty principle and quantum gravity phenomenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosso, Pasquale

    The fundamental physical description of Nature is based on two mutually incompatible theories: Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity. Their unification in a theory of Quantum Gravity (QG) remains one of the main challenges of theoretical physics. Quantum Gravity Phenomenology (QGP) studies QG effects in low-energy systems. The basis of one such phenomenological model is the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), which is a modified Heisenberg uncertainty relation and predicts a deformed canonical commutator. In this thesis, we compute Planck-scale corrections to angular momentum eigenvalues, the hydrogen atom spectrum, the Stern-Gerlach experiment, and the Clebsch-Gordan coefficients. We then rigorously analyze the GUP-perturbed harmonic oscillator and study new coherent and squeezed states. Furthermore, we introduce a scheme for increasing the sensitivity of optomechanical experiments for testing QG effects. Finally, we suggest future projects that may potentially test QG effects in the laboratory.

  20. Uncertainty quantification in resonance absorption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    We assess the uncertainty in the resonance escape probability due to uncertainty in the neutron and radiation line widths for the first 21 resonances in 232 Th as given by . Simulation, quadrature and polynomial chaos methods are used and the resonance data are assumed to obey a beta distribution. We find the uncertainty in the total resonance escape probability to be the equivalent, in reactivity, of 75–130 pcm. Also shown are pdfs of the resonance escape probability for each resonance and the variation of the uncertainty with temperature. The viability of the polynomial chaos expansion method is clearly demonstrated.

  1. Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

  2. Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shull, A.H.

    1997-01-01

    An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

  3. Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    How to derive and present uncertainty in climate data records (CDRs) has been debated within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, in search of common principles applicable across a range of essential climate variables. Various points of consensus have been reached, including the importance of improving provision of uncertainty information and the benefit of adopting international norms of metrology for language around the distinct concepts of uncertainty and error. Providing an estimate of standard uncertainty per datum (or the means to readily calculate it) emerged as baseline good practice, and should be highly relevant to users of CDRs when the uncertainty in data is variable (the usual case). Given this baseline, the role of quality flags is clarified as being complementary to and not repetitive of uncertainty information. Data with high uncertainty are not poor quality if a valid estimate of the uncertainty is available. For CDRs and their applications, the error correlation properties across spatio-temporal scales present important challenges that are not fully solved. Error effects that are negligible in the uncertainty of a single pixel may dominate uncertainty in the large-scale and long-term. A further principle is that uncertainty estimates should themselves be validated. The concepts of estimating and propagating uncertainty are generally acknowledged in geophysical sciences, but less widely practised in Earth observation and development of CDRs. Uncertainty in a CDR depends in part (and usually significantly) on the error covariance of the radiances and auxiliary data used in the retrieval. Typically, error covariance information is not available in the fundamental CDR (FCDR) (i.e., with the level-1 radiances), since provision of adequate level-1 uncertainty information is not yet standard practice. Those deriving CDRs thus cannot propagate the radiance uncertainty to their geophysical products. The FIDUCEO project (www.fiduceo.eu) is

  4. Uncertainties of Molecular Structural Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Császár, Attila G.

    2014-01-01

    performed. Simply, there are significant disagreements between the same bond lengths measured by different techniques. These disagreements are, however, systematic and can be computed via techniques of quantum chemistry which deal not only with the motions of the electrons (electronic structure theory) but also with the often large amplitude motions of the nuclei. As to the relevant quantum chemical computations, since about 1970 electronic structure theory has become able to make quantitative predictions and thus challenge (or even overrule) many experiments. Nevertheless, quantitative agreement of quantum chemical results with experiment can only be expected when the motions of the atoms are also considered. In the fourth age of quantum chemistry we are living in an era where one can bridge quantitatively the gap between ‘effective’, experimental and ‘equilibrium’, computed structures at even elevated temperatures of interest thus minimizing any real uncertainties of structural parameters. The connections mentioned are extremely important as they help to understand the true uncertainty of measured structural parameters. Traditionally it is microwave (MW) and millimeterwave (MMW) spectroscopy, as well as gas-phase electron diffraction (GED), which yielded the most accurate structural parameters of molecules. The accuracy of the MW and GED experiments approached about 0.001Å and 0.1º under ideal circumstances, worse, sometimes considerably worse, in less than ideal and much more often encountered situations. Quantum chemistry can define both highly accurate equilibrium (so-called Born-Oppenheimer, r_e"B"O, and semiexperimental, r_e"S"E) structures and, via detailed investigation of molecular motions, accurate temperature-dependent rovibrationally averaged structures. Determining structures is still a rich field for research, understanding the measured or computed uncertainties of structures and structural parameters is still a challenge but there are firm and well

  5. The time course of attention modulation elicited by spatial uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Dan; Liang, Huilou; Xue, Linyan; Wang, Meijian; Hu, Qiyi; Chen, Yao

    2017-09-01

    Uncertainty regarding the target location is an influential factor for spatial attention. Modulation in spatial uncertainty can lead to adjustments in attention scope and variations in attention effects. Hence, investigating spatial uncertainty modulation is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of spatial attention. However, the temporal dynamics of this modulation remains unclear. To evaluate the time course of spatial uncertainty modulation, we adopted a Posner-like attention orienting paradigm with central or peripheral cues. Different numbers of cues were used to indicate the potential locations of the target and thereby manipulate the spatial uncertainty level. The time interval between the onsets of the cue and the target (stimulus onset asynchrony, SOA) varied from 50 to 2000ms. We found that under central cueing, the effect of spatial uncertainty modulation could be detected from 200 to 2000ms after the presence of the cues. Under peripheral cueing, the effect of spatial uncertainty modulation was observed from 50 to 2000ms after cueing. Our results demonstrate that spatial uncertainty modulation produces robust and sustained effects on target detection speed. The time course of this modulation is influenced by the cueing method, which suggests that discrepant processing procedures are involved under different cueing conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    scenarios, is essential. We believe that the efficient communication of uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts is not a mission impossible. Questions remaining unanswered in probabilistic hydrological forecasting should not neutralize the goal of such a mission, and the suspense kept should instead act as a catalyst for overcoming the remaining challenges.

  7. Uncertainty of Doppler reactivity worth due to uncertainties of JENDL-3.2 resonance parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zukeran, Atsushi [Hitachi Ltd., Hitachi, Ibaraki (Japan). Power and Industrial System R and D Div.; Hanaki, Hiroshi; Nakagawa, Tuneo; Shibata, Keiichi; Ishikawa, Makoto

    1998-03-01

    Analytical formula of Resonance Self-shielding Factor (f-factor) is derived from the resonance integral (J-function) based on NR approximation and the analytical expression for Doppler reactivity worth ({rho}) is also obtained by using the result. Uncertainties of the f-factor and Doppler reactivity worth are evaluated on the basis of sensitivity coefficients to the resonance parameters. The uncertainty of the Doppler reactivity worth at 487{sup 0}K is about 4 % for the PNC Large Fast Breeder Reactor. (author)

  8. Robustness of dynamic systems with parameter uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Balemi, S; Truöl, W

    1992-01-01

    Robust Control is one of the fastest growing and promising areas of research today. In many practical systems there exist uncertainties which have to be considered in the analysis and design of control systems. In the last decade methods were developed for dealing with dynamic systems with unstructured uncertainties such as HOO_ and £I-optimal control. For systems with parameter uncertainties, the seminal paper of V. L. Kharitonov has triggered a large amount of very promising research. An international workshop dealing with all aspects of robust control was successfully organized by S. P. Bhattacharyya and L. H. Keel in San Antonio, Texas, USA in March 1991. We organized the second international workshop in this area in Ascona, Switzer­ land in April 1992. However, this second workshop was restricted to robust control of dynamic systems with parameter uncertainties with the objective to concentrate on some aspects of robust control. This book contains a collection of papers presented at the International W...

  9. Uncertainty in Seismic Capacity of Masonry Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Augenti

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Seismic assessment of masonry structures is plagued by both inherent randomness and model uncertainty. The former is referred to as aleatory uncertainty, the latter as epistemic uncertainty because it depends on the knowledge level. Pioneering studies on reinforced concrete buildings have revealed a significant influence of modeling parameters on seismic vulnerability. However, confidence in mechanical properties of existing masonry buildings is much lower than in the case of reinforcing steel and concrete. This paper is aimed at assessing whether and how uncertainty propagates from material properties to seismic capacity of an entire masonry structure. A typical two-story unreinforced masonry building is analyzed. Based on previous statistical characterization of mechanical properties of existing masonry types, the following random variables have been considered in this study: unit weight, uniaxial compressive strength, shear strength at zero confining stress, Young’s modulus, shear modulus, and available ductility in shear. Probability density functions were implemented to generate a significant number of realizations and static pushover analysis of the case-study building was performed for each vector of realizations, load combination and lateral load pattern. Analysis results show a large dispersion in displacement capacity and lower dispersion in spectral acceleration capacity. This can directly affect decision-making because both design and retrofit solutions depend on seismic capacity predictions. Therefore, engineering judgment should always be used when assessing structural safety of existing masonry constructions against design earthquakes, based on a series of seismic analyses under uncertain parameters.

  10. Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark

    2015-07-08

    We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

  11. Sketching Uncertainty into Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribicic, H; Waser, J; Gurbat, R; Sadransky, B; Groller, M E

    2012-12-01

    In a variety of application areas, the use of simulation steering in decision making is limited at best. Research focusing on this problem suggests that most user interfaces are too complex for the end user. Our goal is to let users create and investigate multiple, alternative scenarios without the need for special simulation expertise. To simplify the specification of parameters, we move from a traditional manipulation of numbers to a sketch-based input approach. Users steer both numeric parameters and parameters with a spatial correspondence by sketching a change onto the rendering. Special visualizations provide immediate visual feedback on how the sketches are transformed into boundary conditions of the simulation models. Since uncertainty with respect to many intertwined parameters plays an important role in planning, we also allow the user to intuitively setup complete value ranges, which are then automatically transformed into ensemble simulations. The interface and the underlying system were developed in collaboration with experts in the field of flood management. The real-world data they have provided has allowed us to construct scenarios used to evaluate the system. These were presented to a variety of flood response personnel, and their feedback is discussed in detail in the paper. The interface was found to be intuitive and relevant, although a certain amount of training might be necessary.

  12. Uncertainty vs. Information (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2017-04-01

    Information theory is the branch of logic that describes how rational epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data (Knuth, 2005), and any logic of science is incomplete without such a theory. Developing a formal philosophy of science that recognizes this fact results in essentially trivial solutions to several longstanding problems are generally considered intractable, including: • Alleviating the need for any likelihood function or error model. • Derivation of purely logical falsification criteria for hypothesis testing. • Specification of a general quantitative method for process-level model diagnostics. More generally, I make the following arguments: 1. Model evaluation should not proceed by quantifying and/or reducing error or uncertainty, and instead should be approached as a problem of ensuring that our models contain as much information as our experimental data. I propose that the latter is the only question a scientist actually has the ability to ask. 2. Instead of building geophysical models as solutions to differential equations that represent conservation laws, we should build models as maximum entropy distributions constrained by conservation symmetries. This will allow us to derive predictive probabilities directly from first principles. Knuth, K. H. (2005) 'Lattice duality: The origin of probability and entropy', Neurocomputing, 67, pp. 245-274.

  13. Big data uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maugis, Pierre-André G

    2018-07-01

    Big data-the idea that an always-larger volume of information is being constantly recorded-suggests that new problems can now be subjected to scientific scrutiny. However, can classical statistical methods be used directly on big data? We analyze the problem by looking at two known pitfalls of big datasets. First, that they are biased, in the sense that they do not offer a complete view of the populations under consideration. Second, that they present a weak but pervasive level of dependence between all their components. In both cases we observe that the uncertainty of the conclusion obtained by statistical methods is increased when used on big data, either because of a systematic error (bias), or because of a larger degree of randomness (increased variance). We argue that the key challenge raised by big data is not only how to use big data to tackle new problems, but to develop tools and methods able to rigorously articulate the new risks therein. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy

    2010-05-01

    Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.

  15. Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of the Food Chain Module in the COSYMA Package (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.; Jones, J.A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the uncertainty analysis of the food chain module of COSYMA and the uncertainty distributions on the input parameter values for the food chain model provided by the expert panels that were used for the analysis. Two expert panels were convened, covering the areas of soil and plant transfer processes and transfer to and through animals. The aggregated uncertainty distributions from the experts for the elicited variables were used in an uncertainty analysis of the food chain module of COSYMA. The main aim of the module analysis was to identify those parameters whose uncertainty makes large contributions to the overall uncertainty and so should be included in the overall analysis. (author)

  16. Uncertainties in sandy shorelines evolution under the Bruun rule assumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri eLe Cozannet

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In the current practice of sandy shoreline change assessments, the local sedimentary budget is evaluated using the sediment balance equation, that is, by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore processes. The contribution of future sea-level-rise induced by climate change is usually obtained using the Bruun rule, which assumes that the shoreline retreat is equal to the change of sea-level divided by the slope of the upper shoreface. However, it remains unsure that this approach is appropriate to account for the impacts of future sea-level rise. This is due to the lack of relevant observations to validate the Bruun rule under the expected sea-level rise rates. To address this issue, this article estimates the coastal settings and period of time under which the use of the Bruun rule could be (invalidated, in the case of wave-exposed gently-sloping sandy beaches. Using the sedimentary budgets of Stive (2004 and probabilistic sea-level rise scenarios based on IPCC, we provide shoreline change projections that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting idealized coasts (impacts of sea-level rise, storms and other cross-shore and longshore processes. We evaluate the relative importance of each source of uncertainties in the sediment balance equation using a global sensitivity analysis. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defences, the model predicts a perceivable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. In contrast, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. Finally, the contribution of sea-level rise and climate change scenarios to sandy shoreline change projections uncertainties increases with time during the 21st century. Our results have three primary implications for coastal settings similar to those provided described in Stive (2004 : first, the validation of the Bruun rule will not necessarily be

  17. New Evidence Links Stellar Remains to Oldest Recorded Supernova

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-01

    Recent observations have uncovered evidence that helps to confirm the identification of the remains of one of the earliest stellar explosions recorded by humans. The new study shows that the supernova remnant RCW 86 is much younger than previously thought. As such, the formation of the remnant appears to coincide with a supernova observed by Chinese astronomers in 185 A.D. The study used data from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory and the European Space Agency's XMM-Newton Observatory, "There have been previous suggestions that RCW 86 is the remains of the supernova from 185 A.D.," said Jacco Vink of University of Utrecht, the Netherlands, and lead author of the study. "These new X-ray data greatly strengthen the case." When a massive star runs out of fuel, it collapses on itself, creating a supernova that can outshine an entire galaxy. The intense explosion hurls the outer layers of the star into space and produces powerful shock waves. The remains of the star and the material it encounters are heated to millions of degrees and can emit intense X-ray radiation for thousands of years. Animation of a Massive Star Explosion Animation of a Massive Star Explosion In their stellar forensic work, Vink and colleagues studied the debris in RCW 86 to estimate when its progenitor star originally exploded. They calculated how quickly the shocked, or energized, shell is moving in RCW 86, by studying one part of the remnant. They combined this expansion velocity with the size of the remnant and a basic understanding of how supernovas expand to estimate the age of RCW 86. "Our new calculations tell us the remnant is about 2,000 years old," said Aya Bamba, a coauthor from the Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN), Japan. "Previously astronomers had estimated an age of 10,000 years." The younger age for RCW 86 may explain an astronomical event observed almost 2000 years ago. In 185 AD, Chinese astronomers (and possibly the Romans) recorded the appearance of a new

  18. Scientific uncertainties and climate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, M.

    2005-01-01

    Human activities have induced a significant change in the Earth's atmospheric composition and, most likely, this trend will increase throughout the coming decades. During the last decades, the mean temperature has actually increased by the expected amount. Moreover, the geographical distribution of the warming, and day-to-night temperature variation have evolved as predicted. The magnitude of those changes is relatively small for the time being, but is expected to increase alarmingly during the coming decades. Greenhouse warming is a representative example of the problems of sustainable development: long-term risks can be estimated on a rational basis from scientific laws alone, but the non-specialist is generally not prepared to understand the steps required. However, even the non-specialist has obviously the right to decide about his way of life and the inheritance that he would like to leave for his children, but it is preferable that he is fully informed before making his decisions. Dialog, mutual understanding and confidence must prevail between Science and Society to avoid irrational actions. Controversy among experts is quite frequent. In the case of greenhouse warming, a commendable collective expertise has drastically reduced possible confusion. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was created jointly by the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) and the UN Program for the Environment (UNEP). Its reports evaluate the state of knowledge on past and future global climate changes, their impact, and the possibility of controlling anthropogenic emissions. The main targeted readers are, nevertheless, non-specialists, who should be made aware of results deduced from approaches that they may not be able to follow step by step. Moreover, these results, in particular, future projections, are, and will remain, subject to some uncertainty, which a fair description of the state of knowledge must include. Many misunderstandings between writers and readers can

  19. ESFR core optimization and uncertainty studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rineiski, A.; Vezzoni, B.; Zhang, D.; Marchetti, M.; Gabrielli, F.; Maschek, W.; Chen, X.-N.; Buiron, L.; Krepel, J.; Sun, K.; Mikityuk, K.; Polidoro, F.; Rochman, D.; Koning, A.J.; DaCruz, D.F.; Tsige-Tamirat, H.; Sunderland, R.

    2015-01-01

    In the European Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) project supported by EURATOM in 2008-2012, a concept for a large 3600 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor design was investigated. In particular, reference core designs with oxide and carbide fuel were optimized to improve their safety parameters. Uncertainties in these parameters were evaluated for the oxide option. Core modifications were performed first to reduce the sodium void reactivity effect. Introduction of a large sodium plenum with an absorber layer above the core and a lower axial fertile blanket improve the total sodium void effect appreciably, bringing it close to zero for a core with fresh fuel, in line with results obtained worldwide, while not influencing substantially other core physics parameters. Therefore an optimized configuration, CONF2, with a sodium plenum and a lower blanket was established first and used as a basis for further studies in view of deterioration of safety parameters during reactor operation. Further options to study were an inner fertile blanket, introduction of moderator pins, a smaller core height, special designs for pins, such as 'empty' pins, and subassemblies. These special designs were proposed to facilitate melted fuel relocation in order to avoid core re-criticality under severe accident conditions. In the paper further CONF2 modifications are compared in terms of safety and fuel balance. They may bring further improvements in safety, but their accurate assessment requires additional studies, including transient analyses. Uncertainty studies were performed by employing a so-called Total Monte-Carlo method, for which a large number of nuclear data files is produced for single isotopes and then used in Monte-Carlo calculations. The uncertainties for the criticality, sodium void and Doppler effects, effective delayed neutron fraction due to uncertainties in basic nuclear data were assessed for an ESFR core. They prove applicability of the available nuclear data for ESFR

  20. A commentary on model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.

    1994-01-01

    A framework is proposed for the identification of model and parameter uncertainties in risk assessment models. Two cases are distinguished; in the first case, a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses (models) can be formulated, while, in the second, only one reference model is available. The relevance of this formulation to decision making and the communication of uncertainties is discussed

  1. Mama Software Features: Uncertainty Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruggiero, Christy E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Porter, Reid B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-05-30

    This document reviews how the uncertainty in the calculations is being determined with test image data. The results of this testing give an ‘initial uncertainty’ number than can be used to estimate the ‘back end’ uncertainty in digital image quantification in images. Statisticians are refining these numbers as part of a UQ effort.

  2. Designing for Uncertainty: Three Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Scott

    2007-01-01

    Higher education wishes to get long life and good returns on its investment in learning spaces. Doing this has become difficult because rapid changes in information technology have created fundamental uncertainties about the future in which capital investments must deliver value. Three approaches to designing for this uncertainty are described…

  3. Realising the Uncertainty Enabled Model Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, D.; Bastin, L.; Pebesma, E. J.; Williams, M.; Stasch, C.; Jones, R.; Gerharz, L.

    2012-12-01

    The FP7 funded UncertWeb project aims to create the "uncertainty enabled model web". The central concept here is that geospatial models and data resources are exposed via standard web service interfaces, such as the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) suite of encodings and interface standards, allowing the creation of complex workflows combining both data and models. The focus of UncertWeb is on the issue of managing uncertainty in such workflows, and providing the standards, architecture, tools and software support necessary to realise the "uncertainty enabled model web". In this paper we summarise the developments in the first two years of UncertWeb, illustrating several key points with examples taken from the use case requirements that motivate the project. Firstly we address the issue of encoding specifications. We explain the usage of UncertML 2.0, a flexible encoding for representing uncertainty based on a probabilistic approach. This is designed to be used within existing standards such as Observations and Measurements (O&M) and data quality elements of ISO19115 / 19139 (geographic information metadata and encoding specifications) as well as more broadly outside the OGC domain. We show profiles of O&M that have been developed within UncertWeb and how UncertML 2.0 is used within these. We also show encodings based on NetCDF and discuss possible future directions for encodings in JSON. We then discuss the issues of workflow construction, considering discovery of resources (both data and models). We discuss why a brokering approach to service composition is necessary in a world where the web service interfaces remain relatively heterogeneous, including many non-OGC approaches, in particular the more mainstream SOAP and WSDL approaches. We discuss the trade-offs between delegating uncertainty management functions to the service interfaces themselves and integrating the functions in the workflow management system. We describe two utility services to address

  4. Statistical analysis of uncertainties of gamma-peak identification and area calculation in particulate air-filter environment radionuclide measurements using the results of a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) organized intercomparison, Part I: Assessment of reliability and uncertainties of isotope detection and energy precision using artificial spiked test spectra, Part II: Assessment of the true type I error rate and the quality of peak area estimators in relation to type II errors using large numbers of natural spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, W.; Zaehringer, M.; Ungar, K.; Hoffman, I.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the uncertainties of gamma-ray small peak analysis have been examined. As the intensity of a gamma-ray peak approaches its detection decision limit, derived parameters such as centroid channel energy, peak area, peak area uncertainty, baseline determination, and peak significance are statistically sensitive. The intercomparison exercise organized by the CTBTO provided an excellent opportunity for this to be studied. Near background levels, the false-positive and false-negative peak identification frequencies in artificial test spectra have been compared to statistically predictable limiting values. In addition, naturally occurring radon progeny were used to compare observed variance against nominal uncertainties. The results infer that the applied fit algorithms do not always represent the best estimator. Understanding the statistically predicted peak-finding limit is important for data evaluation and analysis assessment. Furthermore, these results are useful to optimize analytical procedures to achieve the best results

  5. Uncertainty in CH4 and N2O emission estimates from a managed fen meadow using EC measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroon, P.S.; Hensen, A.; Van 't Veen, W.H.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Jonker, H.

    2009-02-01

    The overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements may be as high as 50% due to the temporal and spatial variability in the fluxes. As even a large number of chamber plots still cover typically less than 1% of the total field area, the field-scale integrated emission necessarily remains a matter of speculation. High frequency micrometeorological methods are a good option for obtaining integrated estimates on a hectare scale with a continuous coverage in time. Instrumentation is now becoming available that meets the requirements for CH4 and N2O eddy covariance (EC) measurements. A system consisting of a quantum cascade laser (QCL) spectrometer and a sonic anemometer has recently been proven to be suitable for performing EC measurements. This study analyses the EC flux measurements of CH4 and N2O and its corrections, like calibration, Webb-correction, and corrections for high and low frequency losses, and assesses the magnitude of the uncertainties associated with the precision of the measurement instruments, measurement set-up and the methodology. The uncertainty of one single EC flux measurement, a daily, monthly and 3-monthly average EC flux is estimated. In addition, the cumulative emission of C-CH4 and N-N2O and their uncertainties are determined over several fertilizing events at a dairy farm site in the Netherlands. These fertilizing events are selected from the continuously EC flux measurements from August 2006 to September 2008. The EC flux uncertainties are compared by the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements. It will be shown that EC flux measurements can decrease the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates

  6. Uncertainty in CH4 and N2O emission estimates from a managed fen meadow using EC measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kroon, P.S.; Hensen, A.; Van ' t Veen, W.H.; Vermeulen, A.T. [ECN Biomass, Coal and Environment, Petten (Netherlands); Jonker, H. [Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)

    2009-02-15

    The overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements may be as high as 50% due to the temporal and spatial variability in the fluxes. As even a large number of chamber plots still cover typically less than 1% of the total field area, the field-scale integrated emission necessarily remains a matter of speculation. High frequency micrometeorological methods are a good option for obtaining integrated estimates on a hectare scale with a continuous coverage in time. Instrumentation is now becoming available that meets the requirements for CH4 and N2O eddy covariance (EC) measurements. A system consisting of a quantum cascade laser (QCL) spectrometer and a sonic anemometer has recently been proven to be suitable for performing EC measurements. This study analyses the EC flux measurements of CH4 and N2O and its corrections, like calibration, Webb-correction, and corrections for high and low frequency losses, and assesses the magnitude of the uncertainties associated with the precision of the measurement instruments, measurement set-up and the methodology. The uncertainty of one single EC flux measurement, a daily, monthly and 3-monthly average EC flux is estimated. In addition, the cumulative emission of C-CH4 and N-N2O and their uncertainties are determined over several fertilizing events at a dairy farm site in the Netherlands. These fertilizing events are selected from the continuously EC flux measurements from August 2006 to September 2008. The EC flux uncertainties are compared by the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements. It will be shown that EC flux measurements can decrease the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates.

  7. Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicari Kristin J

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic (TE model, which calculates biofuel production costs using a process model and an economic model. The process model solves mass and energy balances for each unit, and the economic model estimates capital and operating costs from the process model based on economic assumptions. The process model inputs include experimental data on the feedstock composition and intermediate product yields for each unit. These experimental yield data are calculated from primary measurements. Uncertainty in these primary measurements is propagated to the calculated yields, to the process model, and ultimately to the economic model. Thus, outputs of the TE model have a minimum uncertainty associated with the uncertainty in the primary measurements. Results We calculate the uncertainty in the Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP estimate for lignocellulosic ethanol production via a biochemical conversion process: dilute sulfuric acid pretreatment of corn stover followed by enzymatic hydrolysis and co-fermentation of the resulting sugars to ethanol. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the TE model and identify the feedstock composition and conversion yields from three unit operations (xylose from pretreatment, glucose from enzymatic hydrolysis, and ethanol from fermentation as the most important variables. The uncertainty in the pretreatment xylose yield arises from multiple measurements, whereas the glucose and ethanol yields from enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation, respectively, are dominated by a single measurement: the fraction of insoluble solids (fIS in the biomass slurries. Conclusions We calculate a $0.15/gal uncertainty in MESP from the TE model due to uncertainties in primary measurements. This result sets a lower bound on the error bars of

  8. Efficient Quantification of Uncertainties in Complex Computer Code Results, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This proposal addresses methods for efficient quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) for models that couple multiple, large-scale commercial or...

  9. Extensive neutronic sensitivity-uncertainty analysis of a fusion reactor shielding blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper the results are presented of an extensive neutronic sensitivity-uncertainty study performed for the design of a shielding blanket for a next-step fusion reactor, such as ITER. A code system was used, which was developed at ECN Petten. The uncertainty in an important response parameter, the neutron heating in the inboard superconducting coils, was evaluated. Neutron transport calculations in the 100 neutron group GAM-II structure were performed using the code ANISN. For the sensitivity and uncertainty calculations the code SUSD was used. Uncertainties due to cross-section uncertainties were taken into account as well as uncertainties due to uncertainties in energy and angular distributions of scattered neutrons (SED and SAD uncertainties, respectively). The subject of direct-term uncertainties (i.e. uncertainties due to uncertainties in the kerma factors of the superconducting coils) is briefly touched upon. It is shown that SAD uncertainties, which have been largely neglected until now, contribute significantly to the total uncertainty. Moreover, the contribution of direct-term uncertainties may be large. The total uncertainty in the neutron heating, only due to Fe cross-sections, amounts to approximately 25%, which is rather large. However, uncertainty data are scarce and the data may very well be conservative. It is shown in this paper that with the code system used, sensitivity and uncertainty calculations can be performed in a straightforward way. Therefore, it is suggested that emphasis is now put on the generation of realistic, reliable covariance data for cross-sections as well as for angular and energy distributions. ((orig.))

  10. Uncertainties on lung doses from inhaled plutonium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puncher, Matthew; Birchall, Alan; Bull, Richard K

    2011-10-01

    In a recent epidemiological study, Bayesian uncertainties on lung doses have been calculated to determine lung cancer risk from occupational exposures to plutonium. These calculations used a revised version of the Human Respiratory Tract Model (HRTM) published by the ICRP. In addition to the Bayesian analyses, which give probability distributions of doses, point estimates of doses (single estimates without uncertainty) were also provided for that study using the existing HRTM as it is described in ICRP Publication 66; these are to be used in a preliminary analysis of risk. To infer the differences between the point estimates and Bayesian uncertainty analyses, this paper applies the methodology to former workers of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), who constituted a subset of the study cohort. The resulting probability distributions of lung doses are compared with the point estimates obtained for each worker. It is shown that mean posterior lung doses are around two- to fourfold higher than point estimates and that uncertainties on doses vary over a wide range, greater than two orders of magnitude for some lung tissues. In addition, we demonstrate that uncertainties on the parameter values, rather than the model structure, are largely responsible for these effects. Of these it appears to be the parameters describing absorption from the lungs to blood that have the greatest impact on estimates of lung doses from urine bioassay. Therefore, accurate determination of the chemical form of inhaled plutonium and the absorption parameter values for these materials is important for obtaining reliable estimates of lung doses and hence risk from occupational exposures to plutonium.

  11. Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Schoppa, Lukas; Straub, Daniel

    2018-04-01

    Technical flood protection is a necessary part of integrated strategies to protect riverine settlements from extreme floods. Many technical flood protection measures, such as dikes and protection walls, are costly to adapt after their initial construction. This poses a challenge to decision makers as there is large uncertainty in how the required protection level will change during the measure lifetime, which is typically many decades long. Flood protection requirements should account for multiple future uncertain factors: socioeconomic, e.g., whether the population and with it the damage potential grows or falls; technological, e.g., possible advancements in flood protection; and climatic, e.g., whether extreme discharge will become more frequent or not. This paper focuses on climatic uncertainty. Specifically, we devise methodology to account for uncertainty associated with the use of discharge projections, ultimately leading to planning implications. For planning purposes, we categorize uncertainties as either visible, if they can be quantified from available catchment data, or hidden, if they cannot be quantified from catchment data and must be estimated, e.g., from the literature. It is vital to consider the hidden uncertainty, since in practical applications only a limited amount of information (e.g., a finite projection ensemble) is available. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify the visible uncertainties and combine them with an estimate of the hidden uncertainties to learn a joint probability distribution of the parameters of extreme discharge. The methodology is integrated into an optimization framework and applied to a pre-alpine case study to give a quantitative, cost-optimal recommendation on the required amount of flood protection. The results show that hidden uncertainty ought to be considered in planning, but the larger the uncertainty already present, the smaller the impact of adding more. The recommended planning is robust to moderate changes in

  12. Carnivoran remains from the Malapa hominin site, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian F Kuhn

    Full Text Available Recent discoveries at the new hominin-bearing deposits of Malapa, South Africa, have yielded a rich faunal assemblage associated with the newly described hominin taxon Australopithecus sediba. Dating of this deposit using U-Pb and palaeomagnetic methods has provided an age of 1.977 Ma, being one of the most accurately dated, time constrained deposits in the Plio-Pleistocene of southern Africa. To date, 81 carnivoran specimens have been identified at this site including members of the families Canidae, Viverridae, Herpestidae, Hyaenidae and Felidae. Of note is the presence of the extinct taxon Dinofelis cf. D. barlowi that may represent the last appearance date for this species. Extant large carnivores are represented by specimens of leopard (Panthera pardus and brown hyaena (Parahyaena brunnea. Smaller carnivores are also represented, and include the genera Atilax and Genetta, as well as Vulpes cf. V. chama. Malapa may also represent the first appearance date for Felis nigripes (Black-footed cat. The geochronological age of Malapa and the associated hominin taxa and carnivoran remains provide a window of research into mammalian evolution during a relatively unknown period in South Africa and elsewhere. In particular, the fauna represented at Malapa has the potential to elucidate aspects of the evolution of Dinofelis and may help resolve competing hypotheses about faunal exchange between East and Southern Africa during the late Pliocene or early Pleistocene.

  13. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  14. The neurobiology of uncertainty: implications for statistical learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasson, Uri

    2017-01-05

    The capacity for assessing the degree of uncertainty in the environment relies on estimating statistics of temporally unfolding inputs. This, in turn, allows calibration of predictive and bottom-up processing, and signalling changes in temporally unfolding environmental features. In the last decade, several studies have examined how the brain codes for and responds to input uncertainty. Initial neurobiological experiments implicated frontoparietal and hippocampal systems, based largely on paradigms that manipulated distributional features of visual stimuli. However, later work in the auditory domain pointed to different systems, whose activation profiles have interesting implications for computational and neurobiological models of statistical learning (SL). This review begins by briefly recapping the historical development of ideas pertaining to the sensitivity to uncertainty in temporally unfolding inputs. It then discusses several issues at the interface of studies of uncertainty and SL. Following, it presents several current treatments of the neurobiology of uncertainty and reviews recent findings that point to principles that serve as important constraints on future neurobiological theories of uncertainty, and relatedly, SL. This review suggests it may be useful to establish closer links between neurobiological research on uncertainty and SL, considering particularly mechanisms sensitive to local and global structure in inputs, the degree of input uncertainty, the complexity of the system generating the input, learning mechanisms that operate on different temporal scales and the use of learnt information for online prediction.This article is part of the themed issue 'New frontiers for statistical learning in the cognitive sciences'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  15. Uncertainty quantification using evidence theory in multidisciplinary design optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, Harish; Renaud, John E.; Preston, Evan L.; Padmanabhan, Dhanesh

    2004-01-01

    Advances in computational performance have led to the development of large-scale simulation tools for design. Systems generated using such simulation tools can fail in service if the uncertainty of the simulation tool's performance predictions is not accounted for. In this research an investigation of how uncertainty can be quantified in multidisciplinary systems analysis subject to epistemic uncertainty associated with the disciplinary design tools and input parameters is undertaken. Evidence theory is used to quantify uncertainty in terms of the uncertain measures of belief and plausibility. To illustrate the methodology, multidisciplinary analysis problems are introduced as an extension to the epistemic uncertainty challenge problems identified by Sandia National Laboratories. After uncertainty has been characterized mathematically the designer seeks the optimum design under uncertainty. The measures of uncertainty provided by evidence theory are discontinuous functions. Such non-smooth functions cannot be used in traditional gradient-based optimizers because the sensitivities of the uncertain measures are not properly defined. In this research surrogate models are used to represent the uncertain measures as continuous functions. A sequential approximate optimization approach is used to drive the optimization process. The methodology is illustrated in application to multidisciplinary example problems

  16. Discussion of OECD LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling Benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, K.; Avramova, M.; Royer, E.; Gillford, J.

    2013-01-01

    The demand for best estimate calculations in nuclear reactor design and safety evaluations has increased in recent years. Uncertainty quantification has been highlighted as part of the best estimate calculations. The modelling aspects of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are to be further developed and validated on scientific grounds in support of their performance and application to multi-physics reactor simulations. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) / Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Nuclear Science Committee (NSC) has endorsed the creation of an Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (EGUAM). Within the framework of activities of EGUAM/NSC the OECD/NEA initiated the Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling for Design, Operation, and Safety Analysis of Light Water Reactor (OECD LWR UAM benchmark). The general objective of the benchmark is to propagate the predictive uncertainties of code results through complex coupled multi-physics and multi-scale simulations. The benchmark is divided into three phases with Phase I highlighting the uncertainty propagation in stand-alone neutronics calculations, while Phase II and III are focused on uncertainty analysis of reactor core and system respectively. This paper discusses the progress made in Phase I calculations, the Specifications for Phase II and the incoming challenges in defining Phase 3 exercises. The challenges of applying uncertainty quantification to complex code systems, in particular the time-dependent coupled physics models are the large computational burden and the utilization of non-linear models (expected due to the physics coupling). (authors)

  17. Confronting the Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing Using Comprehensive Observational Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, J. S.; Regayre, L. A.; Yoshioka, M.; Pringle, K.; Sexton, D.; Lee, L.; Carslaw, K. S.

    2017-12-01

    The effect of aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the largest uncertainty in the overall radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. In this study, we take advantage of a large perturbed parameter ensemble of simulations from the UK Met Office HadGEM-UKCA model (the aerosol component of the UK Earth System Model) to comprehensively sample uncertainty in aerosol forcing. Uncertain aerosol and atmospheric parameters cause substantial aerosol forcing uncertainty in climatically important regions. As the aerosol radiative forcing itself is unobservable, we investigate the potential for observations of aerosol and radiative properties to act as constraints on the large forcing uncertainty. We test how eight different theoretically perfect aerosol and radiation observations can constrain the forcing uncertainty over Europe. We find that the achievable constraint is weak unless many diverse observations are used simultaneously. This is due to the complex relationships between model output responses and the multiple interacting parameter uncertainties: compensating model errors mean there are many ways to produce the same model output (known as model equifinality) which impacts on the achievable constraint. However, using all eight observable quantities together we show that the aerosol forcing uncertainty can potentially be reduced by around 50%. This reduction occurs as we reduce a large sample of model variants (over 1 million) that cover the full parametric uncertainty to around 1% that are observationally plausible.Constraining the forcing uncertainty using real observations is a more complex undertaking, in which we must account for multiple further uncertainties including measurement uncertainties, structural model uncertainties and the model discrepancy from reality. Here, we make a first attempt to determine the true potential constraint on the forcing uncertainty from our model that is achievable using a comprehensive

  18. Cost of power generation. The cost and uncertainties of nuclear power and other CO2-emission reduction techniques for large-scale power generation; Kosten van elektriciteitsopwekking. De kosten en onzekerheden van kernenergie en andere CO2-emissie reducerende technieken voor grootschalige elektriciteitsopwekking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Dril, A.W.N. [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Verdonk, M. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2008-09-15

    In view of recent social and political discussions on nuclear energy, ECN and PBL have gathered and updated information on the cost of options for reducing CO2 emissions in large scale electricity generation. This memo compares the cost of nuclear energy with other large scale options for electricity generation. Special attention is paid to the uncertainties of the cost of nuclear energy. In addition, some external costs and benefits are examined. This memo does not provide a complete framework for comparing the options for generation of electricity, though. Aspects such as public support, various aspects of sustainability and risks are not addressed in this memo. [mk]. [Dutch] Naar aanleiding van de actuele maatschappelijke en politieke discussie over kernenergie hebben ECN en PBL kosteninformatie over opties om CO2-emissies te beperken bij grootschalige opwekking van elektriciteit verzameld en geactualiseerd. In deze notitie worden de kosten van kernenergie vergeleken met andere grootschalige opties van elektriciteitsopwekking. Daarbij wordt speciale aandacht besteed aan de onzekerheden over de kosten van kernenergie. Aanvullend zijn enkele externe kosten en baten beschouwd. Deze notitie geeft echter geen volledig kader om de opties voor de opwekking van elektriciteit met elkaar te vergelijken. Aspecten als draagvlak, diverse duurzaamheidaspecten en risico's zijn in deze notitie namelijk buiten beschouwing gelaten.

  19. Uncertainty Quantification in Alchemical Free Energy Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhati, Agastya P; Wan, Shunzhou; Hu, Yuan; Sherborne, Brad; Coveney, Peter V

    2018-05-02

    Alchemical free energy methods have gained much importance recently from several reports of improved ligand-protein binding affinity predictions based on their implementation using molecular dynamics simulations. A large number of variants of such methods implementing different accelerated sampling techniques and free energy estimators are available, each claimed to be better than the others in its own way. However, the key features of reproducibility and quantification of associated uncertainties in such methods have barely been discussed. Here, we apply a systematic protocol for uncertainty quantification to a number of popular alchemical free energy methods, covering both absolute and relative free energy predictions. We show that a reliable measure of error estimation is provided by ensemble simulation-an ensemble of independent MD simulations-which applies irrespective of the free energy method. The need to use ensemble methods is fundamental and holds regardless of the duration of time of the molecular dynamics simulations performed.

  20. African anthropogenic combustion emission inventory: specificities and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekou, K.; Liousse, C.; Eric-michel, A.; Veronique, Y.; Thierno, D.; Roblou, L.; Toure, E. N.; Julien, B.

    2015-12-01

    Fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of gases and particles in Africa are expected to significantly increase in the near future, particularly due to the growth of African cities. In addition, African large savannah fires occur each year during the dry season, mainly for socio-economical purposes. In this study, we will present the most recent developments of African anthropogenic combustion emission inventories, stressing African specificities. (1)A regional fossil fuel and biofuel inventory for gases and particulates will be presented for Africa at a resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° from 1990 to 2012. For this purpose, the original database of Liousse et al. (2014) has been used after modification for emission factors and for updated regional fuel consumption including new emitter categories (waste burning, flaring) and new activity sectors (i.e. disaggregation of transport into sub-sectors including two wheel ). In terms of emission factors, new measured values will be presented and compared to litterature with a focus on aerosols. They result from measurement campaigns organized in the frame of DACCIWA European program for each kind of African specific anthropogenic sources in 2015, in Abidjan (Ivory Coast), Cotonou (Benin) and in Laboratoire d'Aérologie combustion chamber. Finally, a more detailed spatial distribution of emissions will be proposed at a country level to better take into account road distributions and population densities. (2) Large uncertainties still remain in biomass burning emission inventories estimates, especially over Africa between different datasets such as GFED and AMMABB. Sensitivity tests will be presented to investigate uncertainties in the emission inventories, applying methodologies used for AMMABB and GFED inventories respectively. Then, the relative importance of each sources (fossil fuel, biofuel and biomass burning inventories) on the budgets of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, black and organic carbon, and volatile

  1. Measurement uncertainty: Friend or foe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infusino, Ilenia; Panteghini, Mauro

    2018-02-02

    The definition and enforcement of a reference measurement system, based on the implementation of metrological traceability of patients' results to higher order reference methods and materials, together with a clinically acceptable level of measurement uncertainty, are fundamental requirements to produce accurate and equivalent laboratory results. The uncertainty associated with each step of the traceability chain should be governed to obtain a final combined uncertainty on clinical samples fulfilling the requested performance specifications. It is important that end-users (i.e., clinical laboratory) may know and verify how in vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturers have implemented the traceability of their calibrators and estimated the corresponding uncertainty. However, full information about traceability and combined uncertainty of calibrators is currently very difficult to obtain. Laboratory professionals should investigate the need to reduce the uncertainty of the higher order metrological references and/or to increase the precision of commercial measuring systems. Accordingly, the measurement uncertainty should not be considered a parameter to be calculated by clinical laboratories just to fulfil the accreditation standards, but it must become a key quality indicator to describe both the performance of an IVD measuring system and the laboratory itself. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

  3. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

  4. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

    2014-11-01

    Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

  5. Uncertainties as Barriers for Knowledge Sharing with Enterprise Social Media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trier, Matthias; Fung, Magdalene; Hansen, Abigail

    2017-01-01

    become a barrier for the participants’ adoption. There is only limited existing research studying the types of uncertainties that employees perceive and their impact on knowledge transfer via social media. To address this gap, this article presents a qualitative interview-based study of the adoption...... of the Enterprise Social Media tool Yammer for knowledge sharing in a large global organization. We identify and categorize nine uncertainties that were perceived as barriers by the respondents. The study revealed that the uncertainty types play an important role in affecting employees’ participation...

  6. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  7. Uncertainty modelling and code calibration for composite materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Branner, Kim; Mishnaevsky, Leon, Jr

    2013-01-01

    and measurement uncertainties which are introduced on the different scales. Typically, these uncertainties are taken into account in the design process using characteristic values and partial safety factors specified in a design standard. The value of the partial safety factors should reflect a reasonable balance...... to wind turbine blades are calibrated for two typical lay-ups using a large number of load cases and ratios between the aerodynamic forces and the inertia forces....

  8. Uncertainty in the inelastic resonant scattering assisted by phonons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, N.; Garcia-Sanz, J.; Solana, J.

    1977-01-01

    We have analyzed the inelastic minima observed in new results of He atoms scattered from LiF(001) surfaces. This is done considering bound state resonance processes assisted by phonons. The analysis presents large uncertainties. In the range of uncertainty, we find two ''possible'' bands associated with the vibrations of F - and Li + , respectively. Many more experimental data are necessary to confirm the existence of these processes

  9. Pragmatic aspects of uncertainty propagation: A conceptual review

    KAUST Repository

    Thacker, W.Carlisle; Iskandarani, Mohamad; Gonç alves, Rafael C.; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Knio, Omar

    2015-01-01

    When quantifying the uncertainty of the response of a computationally costly oceanographic or meteorological model stemming from the uncertainty of its inputs, practicality demands getting the most information using the fewest simulations. It is widely recognized that, by interpolating the results of a small number of simulations, results of additional simulations can be inexpensively approximated to provide a useful estimate of the variability of the response. Even so, as computing the simulations to be interpolated remains the biggest expense, the choice of these simulations deserves attention. When making this choice, two requirement should be considered: (i) the nature of the interpolation and ii) the available information about input uncertainty. Examples comparing polynomial interpolation and Gaussian process interpolation are presented for three different views of input uncertainty.

  10. Pragmatic aspects of uncertainty propagation: A conceptual review

    KAUST Repository

    Thacker, W.Carlisle

    2015-09-11

    When quantifying the uncertainty of the response of a computationally costly oceanographic or meteorological model stemming from the uncertainty of its inputs, practicality demands getting the most information using the fewest simulations. It is widely recognized that, by interpolating the results of a small number of simulations, results of additional simulations can be inexpensively approximated to provide a useful estimate of the variability of the response. Even so, as computing the simulations to be interpolated remains the biggest expense, the choice of these simulations deserves attention. When making this choice, two requirement should be considered: (i) the nature of the interpolation and ii) the available information about input uncertainty. Examples comparing polynomial interpolation and Gaussian process interpolation are presented for three different views of input uncertainty.

  11. Decision-making under great uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, S.O.

    1992-01-01

    Five types of decision-uncertainty are distinguished: uncertainty of consequences, of values, of demarcation, of reliance, and of co-ordination. Strategies are proposed for each type of uncertainty. The general conclusion is that it is meaningful for decision theory to treat cases with greater uncertainty than the textbook case of 'decision-making under uncertainty'. (au)

  12. Uncertainty Analysis and Expert Judgment in Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klügel, Jens-Uwe

    2011-01-01

    The large uncertainty associated with the prediction of future earthquakes is usually regarded as the main reason for increased hazard estimates which have resulted from some recent large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis studies (e.g. the PEGASOS study in Switzerland and the Yucca Mountain study in the USA). It is frequently overlooked that such increased hazard estimates are characteristic for a single specific method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): the traditional (Cornell-McGuire) PSHA method which has found its highest level of sophistication in the SSHAC probability method. Based on a review of the SSHAC probability model and its application in the PEGASOS project, it is shown that the surprising results of recent PSHA studies can be explained to a large extent by the uncertainty model used in traditional PSHA, which deviates from the state of the art in mathematics and risk analysis. This uncertainty model, the Ang-Tang uncertainty model, mixes concepts of decision theory with probabilistic hazard assessment methods leading to an overestimation of uncertainty in comparison to empirical evidence. Although expert knowledge can be a valuable source of scientific information, its incorporation into the SSHAC probability method does not resolve the issue of inflating uncertainties in PSHA results. Other, more data driven, PSHA approaches in use in some European countries are less vulnerable to this effect. The most valuable alternative to traditional PSHA is the direct probabilistic scenario-based approach, which is closely linked with emerging neo-deterministic methods based on waveform modelling.

  13. Reducing uncertainty in dust monitoring to detect aeolian sediment transport responses to land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, N.; Chappell, A.; Van Zee, J.; Toledo, D.; Duniway, M.; Billings, B.; Tedela, N.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) influence global rates of wind erosion and dust emission, yet our understanding of the magnitude of the responses remains poor. Field measurements and monitoring provide essential data to resolve aeolian sediment transport patterns and assess the impacts of human land use and management intensity. Data collected in the field are also required for dust model calibration and testing, as models have become the primary tool for assessing LULCC-dust cycle interactions. However, there is considerable uncertainty in estimates of dust emission due to the spatial variability of sediment transport. Field sampling designs are currently rudimentary and considerable opportunities are available to reduce the uncertainty. Establishing the minimum detectable change is critical for measuring spatial and temporal patterns of sediment transport, detecting potential impacts of LULCC and land management, and for quantifying the uncertainty of dust model estimates. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of common sampling designs (e.g., simple random sampling, systematic sampling) used to measure and monitor aeolian sediment transport rates. Using data from the US National Wind Erosion Research Network across diverse rangeland and cropland cover types, we demonstrate how only large changes in sediment mass flux (of the order 200% to 800%) can be detected when small sample sizes are used, crude sampling designs are implemented, or when the spatial variation is large. We then show how statistical rigour and the straightforward application of a sampling design can reduce the uncertainty and detect change in sediment transport over time and between land use and land cover types.

  14. The Uncertainties of Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

    2014-01-01

    for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

  15. Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2016-01-01

    Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  16. Relational uncertainty in service dyads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie

    2017-01-01

    in service dyads and how they resolve it through suitable organisational responses to increase the level of service quality. Design/methodology/approach: We apply the overall logic of Organisational Information-Processing Theory (OIPT) and present empirical insights from two industrial case studies collected...... the relational uncertainty increased the functional quality while resolving the partner’s organisational uncertainty increased the technical quality of the delivered service. Originality: We make two contributions. First, we introduce relational uncertainty to the OM literature as the inability to predict...... and explain the actions of a partnering organisation due to a lack of knowledge about their abilities and intentions. Second, we present suitable organisational responses to relational uncertainty and their effect on service quality....

  17. Advanced LOCA code uncertainty assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickett, A.J.; Neill, A.P.

    1990-11-01

    This report describes a pilot study that identified, quantified and combined uncertainties for the LOBI BL-02 3% small break test. A ''dials'' version of TRAC-PF1/MOD1, called TRAC-F, was used. (author)

  18. How to live with uncertainties?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, R.

    2012-01-01

    In a short introduction, the problem of uncertainty as a general consequence of incomplete information as well as the approach to quantify uncertainty in metrology are addressed. A little history of the more than 30 years of the working group AK SIGMA is followed by an appraisal of its up-to-now achievements. Then, the potential future of the AK SIGMA is discussed based on its actual tasks and on open scientific questions and future topics. (orig.)

  19. Some remarks on modeling uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronen, Y.

    1983-01-01

    Several topics related to the question of modeling uncertainties are considered. The first topic is related to the use of the generalized bias operator method for modeling uncertainties. The method is expanded to a more general form of operators. The generalized bias operator is also used in the inverse problem and applied to determine the anisotropic scattering law. The last topic discussed is related to the question of the limit to accuracy and how to establish its value. (orig.) [de

  20. Uncertainty analysis in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de; Sullivan, Terry

    1997-01-01

    Nuclear waste disposal is a very complex subject which requires the study of many different fields of science, like hydro geology, meteorology, geochemistry, etc. In addition, the waste disposal facilities are designed to last for a very long period of time. Both of these conditions make safety assessment projections filled with uncertainty. This paper addresses approaches for treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment modeling due to the variability of data and some current approaches used to deal with this problem. (author)

  1. Optimal Taxation under Income Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Xianhua Dai

    2011-01-01

    Optimal taxation under income uncertainty has been extensively developed in expected utility theory, but it is still open for inseparable utility function between income and effort. As an alternative of decision-making under uncertainty, prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky (1979), Tversky and Kahneman (1992)) has been obtained empirical support, for example, Kahneman and Tversky (1979), and Camerer and Lowenstein (2003). It is beginning to explore optimal taxation in the context of prospect...

  2. New Perspectives on Policy Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Hlatshwayo, Sandile

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, the ubiquitous and intensifying nature of economic policy uncertainty has made it a popular explanation for weak economic performance in developed and developing markets alike. The primary channel for this effect is decreased and delayed investment as firms adopt a ``wait and see'' approach to irreversible investments (Bernanke, 1983; Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). Deep empirical examination of policy uncertainty's impact is rare because of the difficulty associated in measuring i...

  3. High-temperature uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timusk, T.

    2005-01-01

    Recent experiments reveal that the mechanism responsible for the superconducting properties of cuprate materials is even more mysterious than we thought. Two decades ago, Georg Bednorz and Alex Mueller of IBM's research laboratory in Zurich rocked the world of physics when they discovered a material that lost all resistance to electrical current at the record temperature of 36 K. Until then, superconductivity was thought to be a strictly low-temperature phenomenon that required costly refrigeration. Moreover, the IBM discovery - for which Bednorz and Mueller were awarded the 1987 Nobel Prize for Physics - was made in a ceramic copper-oxide material that nobody expected to be particularly special. Proposed applications for these 'cuprates' abounded. High-temperature superconductivity, particularly if it could be extended to room temperature, offered the promise of levitating trains, ultra-efficient power cables, and even supercomputers based on superconducting quantum interference devices. But these applications have been slow to materialize. Moreover, almost 20 years on, the physics behind this strange state of matter remains a mystery. (U.K.)

  4. Toward best practice framing of uncertainty in scientific publications: A review of Water Resources Research abstracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Helgeson, Casey; Elsawah, Sondoss; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Kummu, Matti

    2017-08-01

    Uncertainty is recognized as a key issue in water resources research, among other sciences. Discussions of uncertainty typically focus on tools and techniques applied within an analysis, e.g., uncertainty quantification and model validation. But uncertainty is also addressed outside the analysis, in writing scientific publications. The language that authors use conveys their perspective of the role of uncertainty when interpreting a claim—what we call here "framing" the uncertainty. This article promotes awareness of uncertainty framing in four ways. (1) It proposes a typology of eighteen uncertainty frames, addressing five questions about uncertainty. (2) It describes the context in which uncertainty framing occurs. This is an interdisciplinary topic, involving philosophy of science, science studies, linguistics, rhetoric, and argumentation. (3) We analyze the use of uncertainty frames in a sample of 177 abstracts from the Water Resources Research journal in 2015. This helped develop and tentatively verify the typology, and provides a snapshot of current practice. (4) We make provocative recommendations to achieve a more influential, dynamic science. Current practice in uncertainty framing might be described as carefully considered incremental science. In addition to uncertainty quantification and degree of belief (present in ˜5% of abstracts), uncertainty is addressed by a combination of limiting scope, deferring to further work (˜25%) and indicating evidence is sufficient (˜40%)—or uncertainty is completely ignored (˜8%). There is a need for public debate within our discipline to decide in what context different uncertainty frames are appropriate. Uncertainty framing cannot remain a hidden practice evaluated only by lone reviewers.

  5. The broad spectrum revisited: evidence from plant remains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Ehud; Wetterstrom, Wilma; Nadel, Dani; Bar-Yosef, Ofer

    2004-06-29

    The beginning of agriculture is one of the most important developments in human history, with enormous consequences that paved the way for settled life and complex society. Much of the research on the origins of agriculture over the last 40 years has been guided by Flannery's [Flannery, K. V. (1969) in The Domestication and Exploitation of Plants and Animals, eds. Ucko, P. J. & Dimbleby, G. W. (Duckworth, London), pp. 73-100] "broad spectrum revolution" (BSR) hypothesis, which posits that the transition to farming in southwest Asia entailed a period during which foragers broadened their resource base to encompass a wide array of foods that were previously ignored in an attempt to overcome food shortages. Although these resources undoubtedly included plants, nearly all BSR hypothesis-inspired research has focused on animals because of a dearth of Upper Paleolithic archaeobotanical assemblages. Now, however, a collection of >90,000 plant remains, recently recovered from the Stone Age site Ohalo II (23,000 B.P.), Israel, offers insights into the plant foods of the late Upper Paleolithic. The staple foods of this assemblage were wild grasses, pushing back the dietary shift to grains some 10,000 years earlier than previously recognized. Besides the cereals (wild wheat and barley), small-grained grasses made up a large component of the assemblage, indicating that the BSR in the Levant was even broader than originally conceived, encompassing what would have been low-ranked plant foods. Over the next 15,000 years small-grained grasses were gradually replaced by the cereals and ultimately disappeared from the Levantine diet.

  6. Pharmacological Fingerprints of Contextual Uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Marshall

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Successful interaction with the environment requires flexible updating of our beliefs about the world. By estimating the likelihood of future events, it is possible to prepare appropriate actions in advance and execute fast, accurate motor responses. According to theoretical proposals, agents track the variability arising from changing environments by computing various forms of uncertainty. Several neuromodulators have been linked to uncertainty signalling, but comprehensive empirical characterisation of their relative contributions to perceptual belief updating, and to the selection of motor responses, is lacking. Here we assess the roles of noradrenaline, acetylcholine, and dopamine within a single, unified computational framework of uncertainty. Using pharmacological interventions in a sample of 128 healthy human volunteers and a hierarchical Bayesian learning model, we characterise the influences of noradrenergic, cholinergic, and dopaminergic receptor antagonism on individual computations of uncertainty during a probabilistic serial reaction time task. We propose that noradrenaline influences learning of uncertain events arising from unexpected changes in the environment. In contrast, acetylcholine balances attribution of uncertainty to chance fluctuations within an environmental context, defined by a stable set of probabilistic associations, or to gross environmental violations following a contextual switch. Dopamine supports the use of uncertainty representations to engender fast, adaptive responses.

  7. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  8. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the formulation of an uncertainty quantification challenge problem consisting of five subproblems. These problems focus on key aspects of uncertainty characterization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, extreme-case analysis, and robust design.

  9. Neural correlates of intolerance of uncertainty in clinical disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wever, Mirjam; Smeets, Paul; Sternheim, Lot

    2015-01-01

    Intolerance of uncertainty is a key contributor to anxiety-related disorders. Recent studies highlight its importance in other clinical disorders. The link between its clinical presentation and the underlying neural correlates remains unclear. This review summarizes the emerging literature on the

  10. Neural Correlates of Intolerance of Uncertainty in Clinical Disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wever, M.; Smeets, P.A.M.; Sternheim, L.

    2015-01-01

    Intolerance of uncertainty is a key contributor to anxiety-related disorders. Recent studies highlight its importance in other clinical disorders. The link between its clinical presentation and the underlying neural correlates remains unclear. This review summarizes the emerging literature on the

  11. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  12. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  13. Improvement of Statistical Decisions under Parametric Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nechval, Nicholas A.; Nechval, Konstantin N.; Purgailis, Maris; Berzins, Gundars; Rozevskis, Uldis

    2011-10-01

    A large number of problems in production planning and scheduling, location, transportation, finance, and engineering design require that decisions be made in the presence of uncertainty. Decision-making under uncertainty is a central problem in statistical inference, and has been formally studied in virtually all approaches to inference. The aim of the present paper is to show how the invariant embedding technique, the idea of which belongs to the authors, may be employed in the particular case of finding the improved statistical decisions under parametric uncertainty. This technique represents a simple and computationally attractive statistical method based on the constructive use of the invariance principle in mathematical statistics. Unlike the Bayesian approach, an invariant embedding technique is independent of the choice of priors. It allows one to eliminate unknown parameters from the problem and to find the best invariant decision rule, which has smaller risk than any of the well-known decision rules. To illustrate the proposed technique, application examples are given.

  14. Estimation of the thermal diffusion coefficient in fusion plasmas taking frequency measurement uncertainties into account

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Berkel, M; Hogeweij, G M D; Van den Brand, H; De Baar, M R; Zwart, H J; Vandersteen, G

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the estimation of the thermal diffusivity from perturbative experiments in fusion plasmas is discussed. The measurements used to estimate the thermal diffusivity suffer from stochastic noise. Accurate estimation of the thermal diffusivity should take this into account. It will be shown that formulas found in the literature often result in a thermal diffusivity that has a bias (a difference between the estimated value and the actual value that remains even if more measurements are added) or have an unnecessarily large uncertainty. This will be shown by modeling a plasma using only diffusion as heat transport mechanism and measurement noise based on ASDEX Upgrade measurements. The Fourier coefficients of a temperature perturbation will exhibit noise from the circular complex normal distribution (CCND). Based on Fourier coefficients distributed according to a CCND, it is shown that the resulting probability density function of the thermal diffusivity is an inverse non-central chi-squared distribution. The thermal diffusivity that is found by sampling this distribution will always be biased, and averaging of multiple estimated diffusivities will not necessarily improve the estimation. Confidence bounds are constructed to illustrate the uncertainty in the diffusivity using several formulas that are equivalent in the noiseless case. Finally, a different method of averaging, that reduces the uncertainty significantly, is suggested. The methodology is also extended to the case where damping is included, and it is explained how to include the cylindrical geometry. (paper)

  15. Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianbo; Kummerow, Christian D.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

    2016-01-01

    Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

  16. Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

    2016-06-01

    Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if other factors are involved. With added experience, uncertainty could be expected to diminish, but perhaps more influential are things like physician confidence, belief in the veracity of what is published, and even one's religious beliefs. In addition, it is plausible that the kind of practice a physician works in can affect the experience of uncertainty. Practicing physicians may not be immediately aware of these effects on how uncertainty is experienced in their clinical decision-making. We asked: (1) Does uncertainty and overconfidence bias decrease with years of practice? (2) What sociodemographic factors are independently associated with less recognition of uncertainty, in particular belief in God or other deity or deities, and how is atheism associated with recognition of uncertainty? (3) Do confidence bias (confidence that one's skill is greater than it actually is), degree of trust in the orthopaedic evidence, and degree of statistical sophistication correlate independently with recognition of uncertainty? We created a survey to establish an overall recognition of uncertainty score (four questions), trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (four questions), confidence bias (three questions), and statistical understanding (six questions). Seven hundred six members of the Science of Variation Group, a collaboration that aims to study variation in the definition and treatment of human illness, were approached to complete our survey. This group represents mainly orthopaedic surgeons specializing in trauma or hand and wrist surgery, practicing in Europe and North America, of whom the majority is involved in teaching. Approximately half of the group has more than 10 years

  17. Knowledge, consensus and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavell, M

    1999-12-01

    Some months ago the editors of this journal asked me if I would undertake a series of short entries of a general sort on philosophical topics germane to current discussions in psychoanalysis. Both authors and topics were left to my discretion. I thought the series was a good idea and gladly agreed to do it. To my surprise and pleasure, all the philosophers I invited accepted I am only sorry that the series could not be longer as there are other philosophers as well who would have been splendid participants, and other topics I would like to have addressed. The essays that will follow in subsequent issues represent by and large the tradition of analytic philosophy, though this has come in the last few decades to comprise many of the themes we used to associate with the Continental tradition. Future entries, by James Conant, Donald Davison, Pascal Engel, Dagfinn Føllesdal, James Hopkins, Ernest Le Pore, Jeffrey Malpas, Jerome Neu, Brian O'Shaughnessy, Richard Rorty and Richard Wollheim, will address the following topics: intersubjectivity, meaning and language, consciousness and perception, pragmatism, knowledge and belief, norms and nature, metaphor, hermeneutics, truth, self-deception, the emotions. The essay below on knowledge, which will also be the topic of another entry by a different author later on, is the only one in the series that I will write.

  18. Incorporating the effects of socioeconomic uncertainty into priority setting for conservation investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, Marissa F; Wilson, Kerrie A; Bode, Michael; Possingham, Hugh P

    2007-12-01

    Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.

  19. Remediation of the Faultless Underground Nuclear Test: Moving Forward in the Face of Model Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, J. B.; Pohlmann, K.; Pohll, G.; Hassan, A.; Sanders, P.; Sanchez, M.; Jaunarajs, S.

    2002-01-01

    The Faultless underground nuclear test, conducted in central Nevada, is the site of an ongoing environmental remediation effort that has successfully progressed through numerous technical challenges due to close cooperation between the U.S. Department of Energy, (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration and the State of Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP). The challenges faced at this site are similar to those of many other sites of groundwater contamination: substantial uncertainties due to the relative lack of data from a highly heterogeneous subsurface environment. Knowing when, where, and how to devote the often enormous resources needed to collect new data is a common problem, and one that can cause remediators and regulators to disagree and stall progress toward closing sites. For Faultless, a variety of numerical modeling techniques and statistical tools are used to provide the information needed for DOE and NDEP to confidently move forward along the remediation path to site closure. A general framework for remediation was established in an agreement and consent order between DOE and the State of Nevada that recognized that no cost-effective technology currently exists to remove the source of contaminants in nuclear cavities. Rather, the emphasis of the corrective action is on identifying the impacted groundwater resource and ensuring protection of human health and the environment from the contamination through monitoring. As a result, groundwater flow and transport modeling is the linchpin in the remediation effort. An early issue was whether or not new site data should be collected via drilling and testing prior to modeling. After several iterations of the Corrective Action Investigation Plan, all parties agreed that sufficient data existed to support a flow and transport model for the site. Though several aspects of uncertainty were included in the subsequent modeling work, concerns remained regarding uncertainty in individual

  20. Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shou-Li; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Ferrari, Matthew J; Mummah, Riley; Runge, Michael C; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J; Tildesley, Michael J; Probert, William J M; Shea, Katriona

    2017-05-30

    Early resolution of uncertainty during an epidemic outbreak can lead to rapid and efficient decision making, provided that the uncertainty affects prioritization of actions. The wide range in caseload projections for the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused great concern and debate about the utility of models. By coding and running 37 published Ebola models with five candidate interventions, we found that, despite this large variation in caseload projection, the ranking of management options was relatively consistent. Reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission were generally ranked as the two best options. Value of information (VoI) analyses show that caseloads could be reduced by 11% by resolving all model-specific uncertainties, with information about model structure accounting for 82% of this reduction and uncertainty about caseload only accounting for 12%. Our study shows that the uncertainty that is of most interest epidemiologically may not be the same as the uncertainty that is most relevant for management. If the goal is to improve management outcomes, then the focus of study should be to identify and resolve those uncertainties that most hinder the choice of an optimal intervention. Our study further shows that simplifying multiple alternative models into a smaller number of relevant groups (here, with shared structure) could streamline the decision-making process and may allow for a better integration of epidemiological modeling and decision making for policy.

  1. Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shou-Li; Bjornstad, Ottar; Ferrari, Matthew J.; Mummah, Riley; Runge, Michael C.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Tildesley, Michael J.; Probert, William J. M.; Shea, Katriona

    2017-01-01

    Early resolution of uncertainty during an epidemic outbreak can lead to rapid and efficient decision making, provided that the uncertainty affects prioritization of actions. The wide range in caseload projections for the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused great concern and debate about the utility of models. By coding and running 37 published Ebola models with five candidate interventions, we found that, despite this large variation in caseload projection, the ranking of management options was relatively consistent. Reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission were generally ranked as the two best options. Value of information (VoI) analyses show that caseloads could be reduced by 11% by resolving all model-specific uncertainties, with information about model structure accounting for 82% of this reduction and uncertainty about caseload only accounting for 12%. Our study shows that the uncertainty that is of most interest epidemiologically may not be the same as the uncertainty that is most relevant for management. If the goal is to improve management outcomes, then the focus of study should be to identify and resolve those uncertainties that most hinder the choice of an optimal intervention. Our study further shows that simplifying multiple alternative models into a smaller number of relevant groups (here, with shared structure) could streamline the decision-making process and may allow for a better integration of epidemiological modeling and decision making for policy.

  2. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in nuclear accident consequence assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlberg, Olof.

    1989-01-01

    This report contains the results of a four year project in research contracts with the Nordic Cooperation in Nuclear Safety and the National Institute for Radiation Protection. An uncertainty/sensitivity analysis methodology consisting of Latin Hypercube sampling and regression analysis was applied to an accident consequence model. A number of input parameters were selected and the uncertainties related to these parameter were estimated within a Nordic group of experts. Individual doses, collective dose, health effects and their related uncertainties were then calculated for three release scenarios and for a representative sample of meteorological situations. From two of the scenarios the acute phase after an accident were simulated and from one the long time consequences. The most significant parameters were identified. The outer limits of the calculated uncertainty distributions are large and will grow to several order of magnitudes for the low probability consequences. The uncertainty in the expectation values are typical a factor 2-5 (1 Sigma). The variation in the model responses due to the variation of the weather parameters is fairly equal to the parameter uncertainty induced variation. The most important parameters showed out to be different for each pathway of exposure, which could be expected. However, the overall most important parameters are the wet deposition coefficient and the shielding factors. A general discussion of the usefulness of uncertainty analysis in consequence analysis is also given. (au)

  3. Automated uncertainty analysis methods in the FRAP computer codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, S.O.

    1980-01-01

    A user oriented, automated uncertainty analysis capability has been incorporated in the Fuel Rod Analysis Program (FRAP) computer codes. The FRAP codes have been developed for the analysis of Light Water Reactor fuel rod behavior during steady state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAP-T) conditions as part of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Water Reactor Safety Research Program. The objective of uncertainty analysis of these codes is to obtain estimates of the uncertainty in computed outputs of the codes is to obtain estimates of the uncertainty in computed outputs of the codes as a function of known uncertainties in input variables. This paper presents the methods used to generate an uncertainty analysis of a large computer code, discusses the assumptions that are made, and shows techniques for testing them. An uncertainty analysis of FRAP-T calculated fuel rod behavior during a hypothetical loss-of-coolant transient is presented as an example and carried through the discussion to illustrate the various concepts

  4. Rational consensus under uncertainty: Expert judgment in the EC-USNRC uncertainty study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, R.; Kraan, B.; Goossens, L.

    1999-01-01

    Governmental bodies are confronted with the problem of achieving rational consensus in the face of substantial uncertainties. The area of accident consequence management for nuclear power plants affords a good example. Decisions with regard to evacuation, decontamination, and food bans must be taken on the basis of predictions of environmental transport of radioactive material, contamination through the food chain, cancer induction, and the like. These predictions use mathematical models containing scores of uncertain parameters. Decision makers want to take, and want to be perceived to take, these decisions in a rational manner. The question is, how can this be accomplished in the face of large uncertainties? Indeed, the very presence of uncertainty poses a threat to rational consensus. Decision makers will necessarily base their actions on the judgments of experts. The experts, however, will not agree among themselves, as otherwise we would not speak of large uncertainties. Any given expert's viewpoint will be favorable to the interests of some stakeholders, and hostile to the interests of others. If a decision maker bases his/her actions on the views of one single expert, then (s)he is invariably open to charges of partiality toward the interests favored by this viewpoint. An appeal to 'impartial' or 'disinterested' experts will fail for two reasons. First, experts have interests; they have jobs, mortgages and professional reputations. Second, even if expert interests could somehow be quarantined, even then the experts would disagree. Expert disagreement is not explained by diverging interests, and consensus cannot be reached by shielding the decision process from expert interests. If rational consensus requires expert agreement, then rational consensus is simply not possible in the face of uncertainty. If rational consensus under uncertainty is to be achieved, then evidently the views of a diverse set of experts must be taken into account. The question is how

  5. RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-06-17

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  6. Ruminations On NDA Measurement Uncertainty Compared TO DA Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  7. OpenTURNS, an open source uncertainty engineering software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popelin, A.L.; Dufoy, A.

    2013-01-01

    The needs to assess robust performances for complex systems have lead to the emergence of a new industrial simulation challenge: to take into account uncertainties when dealing with complex numerical simulation frameworks. EDF has taken part in the development of an Open Source software platform dedicated to uncertainty propagation by probabilistic methods, named OpenTURNS for Open source Treatment of Uncertainty, Risk and Statistics. OpenTURNS includes a large variety of qualified algorithms in order to manage uncertainties in industrial studies, from the uncertainty quantification step (with possibilities to model stochastic dependence thanks to the copula theory and stochastic processes), to the uncertainty propagation step (with some innovative simulation algorithms as the ziggurat method for normal variables) and the sensitivity analysis one (with some sensitivity index based on the evaluation of means conditioned to the realization of a particular event). It also enables to build some response surfaces that can include the stochastic modeling (with the chaos polynomial method for example). Generic wrappers to link OpenTURNS to the modeling software are proposed. At last, OpenTURNS is largely documented to provide rules to help use and contribution

  8. Critical loads - assessment of uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barkman, A.

    1998-10-01

    The effects of data uncertainty in applications of the critical loads concept were investigated on different spatial resolutions in Sweden and northern Czech Republic. Critical loads of acidity (CL) were calculated for Sweden using the biogeochemical model PROFILE. Three methods with different structural complexity were used to estimate the adverse effects of S0{sub 2} concentrations in northern Czech Republic. Data uncertainties in the calculated critical loads/levels and exceedances (EX) were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. Uncertainties within cumulative distribution functions (CDF) were aggregated by accounting for the overlap between site specific confidence intervals. Aggregation of data uncertainties within CDFs resulted in lower CL and higher EX best estimates in comparison with percentiles represented by individual sites. Data uncertainties were consequently found to advocate larger deposition reductions to achieve non-exceedance based on low critical loads estimates on 150 x 150 km resolution. Input data were found to impair the level of differentiation between geographical units at all investigated resolutions. Aggregation of data uncertainty within CDFs involved more constrained confidence intervals for a given percentile. Differentiation as well as identification of grid cells on 150 x 150 km resolution subjected to EX was generally improved. Calculation of the probability of EX was shown to preserve the possibility to differentiate between geographical units. Re-aggregation of the 95%-ile EX on 50 x 50 km resolution generally increased the confidence interval for each percentile. Significant relationships were found between forest decline and the three methods addressing risks induced by S0{sub 2} concentrations. Modifying S0{sub 2} concentrations by accounting for the length of the vegetation period was found to constitute the most useful trade-off between structural complexity, data availability and effects of data uncertainty. Data

  9. Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleš Mlakar

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

  10. Uncertainty modeling and decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yager, Ronald R.

    2004-01-01

    We first formulate the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The importance of the representation of our knowledge about the uncertainty in formulating a decision process is pointed out. We begin with a brief discussion of the case of probabilistic uncertainty. Next, in considerable detail, we discuss the case of decision making under ignorance. For this case the fundamental role of the attitude of the decision maker is noted and its subjective nature is emphasized. Next the case in which a Dempster-Shafer belief structure is used to model our knowledge of the uncertainty is considered. Here we also emphasize the subjective choices the decision maker must make in formulating a decision function. The case in which the uncertainty is represented by a fuzzy measure (monotonic set function) is then investigated. We then return to the Dempster-Shafer belief structure and show its relationship to the fuzzy measure. This relationship allows us to get a deeper understanding of the formulation the decision function used Dempster- Shafer framework. We discuss how this deeper understanding allows a decision analyst to better make the subjective choices needed in the formulation of the decision function

  11. Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oddo, Perry C; Lee, Ben S; Garner, Gregory G; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Reed, Patrick M; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

    2017-09-05

    Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Quantifying phenomenological importance in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Robert P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a general methodology for quantifying the importance of specific phenomenological elements to analysis measures evaluated from non-parametric best-estimate plus uncertainty evaluation methodologies. The principal objective of an importance analysis is to reveal those uncertainty contributors having the greatest influence on key analysis measures. This characterization supports the credibility of the uncertainty analysis, the applicability of the analytical tools, and even the generic evaluation methodology through the validation of the engineering judgments that guided the evaluation methodology development. A demonstration of the importance analysis is provided using data from a sample problem considered in the development of AREVA's Realistic LBLOCA methodology. The results are presented against the original large-break LOCA Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table developed by the Technical Program Group responsible for authoring the Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty methodology. (author)

  13. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for performance assessment modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doctor, P.G.

    1988-08-01

    Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high level radioactive waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses. 44 refs

  14. Regime-dependent forecast uncertainty of convective precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keil, Christian; Craig, George C. [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    2011-04-15

    Forecast uncertainty of convective precipitation is influenced by all scales, but in different ways in different meteorological situations. Forecasts of the high resolution ensemble prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) are used to examine the dominant sources of uncertainty of convective precipitation. A validation with radar data using traditional as well as spatial verification measures highlights differences in precipitation forecast performance in differing weather regimes. When the forecast uncertainty can primarily be associated with local, small-scale processes individual members run with the same variation of the physical parameterisation driven by different global models outperform all other ensemble members. In contrast when the precipitation is governed by the large-scale flow all ensemble members perform similarly. Application of the convective adjustment time scale confirms this separation and shows a regime-dependent forecast uncertainty of convective precipitation. (orig.)

  15. Uncertainty Assessment: What Good Does it Do? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreskes, N.; Lewandowsky, S.

    2013-12-01

    the public debate or advance public policy. We argue that attempts to address public doubts by improving uncertainty assessment are bound to fail, insofar as the motives for doubt-mongering are independent of scientific uncertainty, and therefore remain unaffected even as those uncertainties are diminished. We illustrate this claim by consideration of the evolution of the debate over the past ten years over the relationship between hurricanes and anthropogenic climate change. We suggest that scientists should pursue uncertainty assessment if such assessment improves scientific understanding, but not as a means to reduce public doubts or advance public policy in relation to anthropogenic climate change.

  16. On the uncertainty principle. V

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halpern, O.

    1976-01-01

    The treatment of ideal experiments connected with the uncertainty principle is continued. The author analyzes successively measurements of momentum and position, and discusses the common reason why the results in all cases differ from the conventional ones. A similar difference exists for the measurement of field strengths. The interpretation given by Weizsaecker, who tried to interpret Bohr's complementarity principle by introducing a multi-valued logic is analyzed. The treatment of the uncertainty principle ΔE Δt is deferred to a later paper as is the interpretation of the method of variation of constants. Every ideal experiment discussed shows various lower limits for the value of the uncertainty product which limits depend on the experimental arrangement and are always (considerably) larger than h. (Auth.)

  17. Davis-Besse uncertainty study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, C.B.

    1987-08-01

    The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results

  18. Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This status report on decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties is based on a review of recent literature and materials presented at NEA meetings in 2003 and 2004, and particularly at a topical session organised in November 2004 on funding issues associated with the decommissioning of nuclear power facilities. The report also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). This report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems

  19. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project

  20. Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowell, David P. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-10-15

    This study considers the large uncertainty in projected changes in local precipitation. It aims to map, and begin to understand, the relative roles of uncertain modelling and natural variability, using 20-year mean data from four perturbed physics or multi-model ensembles. The largest - 280-member - ensemble illustrates a rich pattern in the varying contribution of modelling uncertainty, with similar features found using a CMIP3 ensemble (despite its limited sample size, which restricts it value in this context). The contribution of modelling uncertainty to the total uncertainty in local precipitation change is found to be highest in the deep tropics, particularly over South America, Africa, the east and central Pacific, and the Atlantic. In the moist maritime tropics, the highly uncertain modelling of sea-surface temperature changes is transmitted to a large uncertain modelling of local rainfall changes. Over tropical land and summer mid-latitude continents (and to a lesser extent, the tropical oceans), uncertain modelling of atmospheric processes, land surface processes and the terrestrial carbon cycle all appear to play an additional substantial role in driving the uncertainty of local rainfall changes. In polar regions, inter-model variability of anomalous sea ice drives an uncertain precipitation response, particularly in winter. In all these regions, there is therefore the potential to reduce the uncertainty of local precipitation changes through targeted model improvements and observational constraints. In contrast, over much of the arid subtropical and mid-latitude oceans, over Australia, and over the Sahara in winter, internal atmospheric variability dominates the uncertainty in projected precipitation changes. Here, model improvements and observational constraints will have little impact on the uncertainty of time means shorter than at least 20 years. Last, a supplementary application of the metric developed here is that it can be interpreted as a measure

  1. A Bayesian Framework for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) of a faulty component is at the center of system prognostics and health management. It gives operators a potent tool in...

  2. Quantification of uncertainties in turbulence modeling: A comparison of physics-based and random matrix theoretic approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jian-Xun; Sun, Rui; Xiao, Heng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Compared physics-based and random matrix methods to quantify RANS model uncertainty. • Demonstrated applications of both methods in channel ow over periodic hills. • Examined the amount of information introduced in the physics-based approach. • Discussed implications to modeling turbulence in both near-wall and separated regions. - Abstract: Numerical models based on Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations are widely used in engineering turbulence modeling. However, the RANS predictions have large model-form uncertainties for many complex flows, e.g., those with non-parallel shear layers or strong mean flow curvature. Quantification of these large uncertainties originating from the modeled Reynolds stresses has attracted attention in the turbulence modeling community. Recently, a physics-based Bayesian framework for quantifying model-form uncertainties has been proposed with successful applications to several flows. Nonetheless, how to specify proper priors without introducing unwarranted, artificial information remains challenging to the current form of the physics-based approach. Another recently proposed method based on random matrix theory provides the prior distributions with maximum entropy, which is an alternative for model-form uncertainty quantification in RANS simulations. This method has better mathematical rigorousness and provides the most non-committal prior distributions without introducing artificial constraints. On the other hand, the physics-based approach has the advantages of being more flexible to incorporate available physical insights. In this work, we compare and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches on model-form uncertainty quantification. In addition, we utilize the random matrix theoretic approach to assess and possibly improve the specification of priors used in the physics-based approach. The comparison is conducted through a test case using a canonical flow, the flow past

  3. Robotics to Enable Older Adults to Remain Living at Home

    OpenAIRE

    Pearce, Alan J.; Adair, Brooke; Miller, Kimberly; Ozanne, Elizabeth; Said, Catherine; Santamaria, Nick; Morris, Meg E.

    2012-01-01

    Given the rapidly ageing population, interest is growing in robots to enable older people to remain living at home. We conducted a systematic review and critical evaluation of the scientific literature, from 1990 to the present, on the use of robots in aged care. The key research questions were as follows: (1) what is the range of robotic devices available to enable older people to remain mobile, independent, and safe? and, (2) what is the evidence demonstrating that robotic devices are effec...

  4. Summary of existing uncertainty methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, Horst

    2013-01-01

    A summary of existing and most used uncertainty methods is presented, and the main features are compared. One of these methods is the order statistics method based on Wilks' formula. It is applied in safety research as well as in licensing. This method has been first proposed by GRS for use in deterministic safety analysis, and is now used by many organisations world-wide. Its advantage is that the number of potential uncertain input and output parameters is not limited to a small number. Such a limitation was necessary for the first demonstration of the Code Scaling Applicability Uncertainty Method (CSAU) by the United States Regulatory Commission (USNRC). They did not apply Wilks' formula in their statistical method propagating input uncertainties to obtain the uncertainty of a single output variable, like peak cladding temperature. A Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) was set up in order to limit the number of uncertain input parameters, and consequently, the number of calculations to be performed. Another purpose of such a PIRT process is to identify the most important physical phenomena which a computer code should be suitable to calculate. The validation of the code should be focused on the identified phenomena. Response surfaces are used in some applications replacing the computer code for performing a high number of calculations. The second well known uncertainty method is the Uncertainty Methodology Based on Accuracy Extrapolation (UMAE) and the follow-up method 'Code with the Capability of Internal Assessment of Uncertainty (CIAU)' developed by the University Pisa. Unlike the statistical approaches, the CIAU does compare experimental data with calculation results. It does not consider uncertain input parameters. Therefore, the CIAU is highly dependent on the experimental database. The accuracy gained from the comparison between experimental data and calculated results are extrapolated to obtain the uncertainty of the system code predictions

  5. Uncertainty analysis in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Sullivan, Terry [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Nuclear waste disposal is a very complex subject which requires the study of many different fields of science, like hydro geology, meteorology, geochemistry, etc. In addition, the waste disposal facilities are designed to last for a very long period of time. Both of these conditions make safety assessment projections filled with uncertainty. This paper addresses approaches for treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment modeling due to the variability of data and some current approaches used to deal with this problem. (author) 13 refs.; e-mail: lemos at bnl.gov; sulliva1 at bnl.gov

  6. Awe, uncertainty, and agency detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Graham, Jesse

    2014-01-01

    Across five studies, we found that awe increases both supernatural belief (Studies 1, 2, and 5) and intentional-pattern perception (Studies 3 and 4)-two phenomena that have been linked to agency detection, or the tendency to interpret events as the consequence of intentional and purpose-driven agents. Effects were both directly and conceptually replicated, and mediational analyses revealed that these effects were driven by the influence of awe on tolerance for uncertainty. Experiences of awe decreased tolerance for uncertainty, which, in turn, increased the tendency to believe in nonhuman agents and to perceive human agency in random events.

  7. Linear Programming Problems for Generalized Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thipwiwatpotjana, Phantipa

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainty occurs when there is more than one realization that can represent an information. This dissertation concerns merely discrete realizations of an uncertainty. Different interpretations of an uncertainty and their relationships are addressed when the uncertainty is not a probability of each realization. A well known model that can handle…

  8. Uncertainty Quantification of Multi-Phase Closures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nadiga, Balasubramanya T. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Baglietto, Emilio [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2017-10-27

    In the ensemble-averaged dispersed phase formulation used for CFD of multiphase ows in nuclear reactor thermohydraulics, closures of interphase transfer of mass, momentum, and energy constitute, by far, the biggest source of error and uncertainty. Reliable estimators of this source of error and uncertainty are currently non-existent. Here, we report on how modern Validation and Uncertainty Quanti cation (VUQ) techniques can be leveraged to not only quantify such errors and uncertainties, but also to uncover (unintended) interactions between closures of di erent phenomena. As such this approach serves as a valuable aide in the research and development of multiphase closures. The joint modeling of lift, drag, wall lubrication, and turbulent dispersion|forces that lead to tranfer of momentum between the liquid and gas phases|is examined in the frame- work of validation of the adiabatic but turbulent experiments of Liu and Banko , 1993. An extensive calibration study is undertaken with a popular combination of closure relations and the popular k-ϵ turbulence model in a Bayesian framework. When a wide range of super cial liquid and gas velocities and void fractions is considered, it is found that this set of closures can be validated against the experimental data only by allowing large variations in the coe cients associated with the closures. We argue that such an extent of variation is a measure of uncertainty induced by the chosen set of closures. We also nd that while mean uid velocity and void fraction pro les are properly t, uctuating uid velocity may or may not be properly t. This aspect needs to be investigated further. The popular set of closures considered contains ad-hoc components and are undesirable from a predictive modeling point of view. Consequently, we next consider improvements that are being developed by the MIT group under CASL and which remove the ad-hoc elements. We use non-intrusive methodologies for sensitivity analysis and calibration (using

  9. Effects of Input Data Content on the Uncertainty of Simulating Water Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Camargos

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The widely used, partly-deterministic Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT requires a large amount of spatial input data, such as a digital elevation model (DEM, land use, and soil maps. Modelers make an effort to apply the most specific data possible for the study area to reflect the heterogeneous characteristics of landscapes. Regional data, especially with fine resolution, is often preferred. However, such data is not always available and can be computationally demanding. Despite being coarser, global data are usually free and available to the public. Previous studies revealed the importance for single investigations of different input maps. However, it remains unknown whether higher-resolution data can lead to reliable results. This study investigates how global and regional input datasets affect parameter uncertainty when estimating river discharges. We analyze eight different setups for the SWAT model for a catchment in Luxembourg, combining different land-use, elevation, and soil input data. The Metropolis–Hasting Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm is used to infer posterior model parameter uncertainty. We conclude that our higher resolved DEM improves the general model performance in reproducing low flows by 10%. The less detailed soil-map improved the fit of low flows by 25%. In addition, more detailed land-use maps reduce the bias of the model discharge simulations by 50%. Also, despite presenting similar parameter uncertainty (P-factor ranging from 0.34 to 0.41 and R-factor from 0.41 to 0.45 for all setups, the results show a disparate parameter posterior distribution. This indicates that no assessment of all sources of uncertainty simultaneously is compensated by the fitted parameter values. We conclude that our result can give some guidance for future SWAT applications in the selection of the degree of detail for input data.

  10. Updated Estimates of the Remaining Market Potential of the U.S. ESCO Industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Peter H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Div.; Carvallo Bodelon, Juan Pablo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Div.; Goldman, Charles A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Div.; Murphy, Sean [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Div.; Stuart, Elizabeth [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Div.

    2017-04-01

    The energy service company (ESCO) industry has a well-established track record of delivering energy and economic savings in the public and institutional buildings sector, primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. The ESCO industry often provides (or helps arrange) private sector financing to complete public infrastructure projects with little or no up-front cost to taxpayers. In 2014, total U.S. ESCO industry revenue was estimated at $5.3 billion. ESCOs expect total industry revenue to grow to $7.6 billion in 2017—a 13% annual growth rate from 2015-2017. Researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) were asked by the U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) to update and expand our estimates of the remaining market potential of the U.S. ESCO industry. We define remaining market potential as the aggregate amount of project investment by ESCOs that is technically possible based on the types of projects that ESCOS have historically implemented in the institutional, commercial, and industrial sectors using ESCO estimates of current market penetration in those sectors. In this analysis, we report U.S. ESCO industry remaining market potential under two scenarios: (1) a base case and (2) a case “unfettered” by market, bureaucratic, and regulatory barriers. We find that there is significant remaining market potential for the U.S. ESCO industry under both the base and unfettered cases. For the base case, we estimate a remaining market potential of $92-$201 billion ($2016). We estimate a remaining market potential of $190-$333 billion for the unfettered case. It is important to note, however, that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the estimates for both the base and unfettered cases.

  11. Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses two main ideas. First, we focus on info-gap uncertainty, as distinct from probability. Info-gap theory is especially suited for modelling and managing uncertainty in system models: we invest all our knowledge in formulating the best possible model; this leaves the modeller with very faulty and fragmentary information about the variation of reality around that optimal model. Second, we examine the interdependence between uncertainty modelling and decision-making. Good uncertainty modelling requires contact with the end-use, namely, with the decision-making application of the uncertainty model. The most important avenue of uncertainty-propagation is from initial data- and model-uncertainties into uncertainty in the decision-domain. Two questions arise. Is the decision robust to the initial uncertainties? Is the decision prone to opportune windfall success? We apply info-gap robustness and opportunity functions to the analysis of representation and propagation of uncertainty in several of the Sandia Challenge Problems

  12. On uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, Niklas; Ginsbourger, David; Irving, James; Nobile, Fabio; Doucet, Arnaud

    2017-12-01

    Recent advances in sensor technologies, field methodologies, numerical modeling, and inversion approaches have contributed to unprecedented imaging of hydrogeological properties and detailed predictions at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Nevertheless, imaging results and predictions will always remain imprecise, which calls for appropriate uncertainty quantification (UQ). In this paper, we outline selected methodological developments together with pioneering UQ applications in hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. The applied mathematics and statistics literature is not easy to penetrate and this review aims at helping hydrogeologists and hydrogeophysicists to identify suitable approaches for UQ that can be applied and further developed to their specific needs. To bypass the tremendous computational costs associated with forward UQ based on full-physics simulations, we discuss proxy-modeling strategies and multi-resolution (Multi-level Monte Carlo) methods. We consider Bayesian inversion for non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space problems and discuss how Sequential Monte Carlo may become a practical alternative. We also describe strategies to account for forward modeling errors in Bayesian inversion. Finally, we consider hydrogeophysical inversion, where petrophysical uncertainty is often ignored leading to overconfident parameter estimation. The high parameter and data dimensions encountered in hydrogeological and geophysical problems make UQ a complicated and important challenge that has only been partially addressed to date.

  13. Evaluation of the uncertainty of environmental measurements of radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heydorn, K.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: The almost universal acceptance of the concept of uncertainty has led to its introduction into the ISO 17025 standard for general requirements to testing and calibration laboratories. This means that not only scientists, but also legislators, politicians, the general population - and perhaps even the press - expect to see all future results associated with an expression of their uncertainty. Results obtained by measurement of radioactivity have routinely been associated with an expression of their uncertainty, based on the so-called counting statistics. This is calculated together with the actual result on the assumption that the number of counts observed has a Poisson distribution with equal mean and variance. Most of the nuclear scientific community has therefore assumed that it already complied with the latest ISO 17025 requirements. Counting statistics, however, express only the variability observed among repeated measurements of the same sample under the same counting conditions, which is equivalent to the term repeatability used in quantitative analysis. Many other sources of uncertainty need to be taken into account before a statement of the uncertainty of the actual result can be made. As the first link in the traceability chain calibration is always an important uncertainty component in any kind of measurement. For radioactivity measurements in particular we find that counting geometry assumes the greatest importance, because it is often not possible to measure a standard and a control sample under exactly the same conditions. In the case of large samples we have additional uncertainty components associated with sample heterogeneity and its influence on self-absorption and counting efficiency. In low-level environmental measurements we have an additional risk of sample contamination, but the most important contribution to uncertainty is usually the representativity of the sample being analysed. For uniform materials this can be expressed by the

  14. Uncertainty analysis of light water reactor unit fuel pin cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamerow, S.; Ivanov, K., E-mail: sln107@PSU.EDU, E-mail: kni1@PSU.EDU [Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, PA (United States); Moreno, C. Arenas, E-mail: cristina.arenas@UPC.EDU [Department of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain)

    2011-07-01

    The study explored the calculation of uncertainty based on available covariance data and computational tools. Uncertainty due to temperature changes and different fuel compositions are the main focus of this analysis. Selected unit fuel pin cells were analyzed according to the OECD LWR UAM benchmark specifications. Criticality and uncertainty analyses were performed using TSUNAMI-1D sequence in SCALE 6.0. It was found that uncertainties increase with increasing temperature while k{sub eff} decreases. This increase in the uncertainty is due to the increase in sensitivity of the largest contributor of uncertainty, namely nuclide reaction {sup 238}U (n, gamma). The sensitivity grew larger as the capture cross-section of {sup 238}U expanded due to Doppler broadening. In addition, three different compositions (UOx, MOx, and UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3}) of fuel cells were analyzed. It showed a remarkable increase in uncertainty in k{sub eff} for the case of the MOx fuel cell and UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3} fuel cell. The increase in the uncertainty of k{sub eff} in UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3} fuel was nearly twice of that in MOx fuel and almost four times the amount in UOx fuel. The components of the uncertainties in k{sub eff} in each case were examined and it was found that the neutron-nuclide reaction of {sup 238}U, mainly (n,n'), contributed the most to the uncertainties in the cases of MOx and UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3}. At higher energy, the covariance coefficient matrix of {sup 238}U (n,n') to {sup 238}U (n,n') and {sup 238}U (n,n') cross-section showed very large values. Further, examination of the UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3} case found that the {sup 238}U (n,n') became the dominant contributor to the uncertainty because most of the thermal neutrons in the cell were absorbed by Gadolinium in UOxGd{sub 2}O{sub 3} case and thus shifting the neutron spectrum to higher energy. For the MOx case on other hand, {sup 239}Pu has a very strong absorption cross-section at low energy

  15. Water supply infrastructure planning under multiple uncertainties: A differentiated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K.

    2017-12-01

    Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from increasing demands from population and economic growth in combination with uncertain water supply. Supply uncertainty arises from short-term climate variability and long-term climate change as well as uncertainty in groundwater availability. Social and economic uncertainties - such as sectoral competition for water, food and energy security, urbanization, and environmental protection - compound physical uncertainty. Further, the varying risk aversion of stakeholders and water managers makes it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments to reduce risk. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they can be updated over time by collecting additional information, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are "deep" uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. Based on this, we apply a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, scenario analysis for deep uncertainty, and multi-stage decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. In light of these uncertainties and the investment costs of large infrastructure, we propose the assessment of staged, modular infrastructure and information updating as a hedge against risk. We apply this framework to cases in Melbourne, Australia and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Melbourne is a surface water system facing uncertain population growth and variable rainfall and runoff. A severe drought from 1997 to 2009 prompted investment in a 150 MCM/y reverse osmosis desalination plan with a capital cost of 3.5 billion. Our analysis shows that flexible design in which a smaller portion of capacity is developed initially with the option to add modular capacity in the future can mitigate uncertainty and reduce the expected lifetime costs by up to 1 billion. In Riyadh, urban water use relies on fossil groundwater aquifers and

  16. Chapter 3: Traceability and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McEwen, Malcolm

    2014-01-01

    Chapter 3 presents: an introduction; Traceability (measurement standard, role of the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures, Secondary Standards Laboratories, documentary standards and traceability as process review); Uncertainty (Example 1 - Measurement, M raw (SSD), Example 2 - Calibration data, N D.w 60 Co, kQ, Example 3 - Correction factor, P TP ) and Conclusion

  17. Competitive Capacity Investment under Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    X. Li (Xishu); R.A. Zuidwijk (Rob); M.B.M. de Koster (René); R. Dekker (Rommert)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe consider a long-term capacity investment problem in a competitive market under demand uncertainty. Two firms move sequentially in the competition and a firm’s capacity decision interacts with the other firm’s current and future capacity. Throughout the investment race, a firm can

  18. Uncertainty quantification and error analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Higdon, Dave M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson, Mark C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Habib, Salman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klein, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Berliner, Mark [OHIO STATE UNIV.; Covey, Curt [LLNL; Ghattas, Omar [UNIV OF TEXAS; Graziani, Carlo [UNIV OF CHICAGO; Seager, Mark [LLNL; Sefcik, Joseph [LLNL; Stark, Philip [UC/BERKELEY; Stewart, James [SNL

    2010-01-01

    UQ studies all sources of error and uncertainty, including: systematic and stochastic measurement error; ignorance; limitations of theoretical models; limitations of numerical representations of those models; limitations on the accuracy and reliability of computations, approximations, and algorithms; and human error. A more precise definition for UQ is suggested below.

  19. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

  20. Uncertainty covariances in robotics applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    The application of uncertainty covariance matrices in the analysis of robot trajectory errors is explored. First, relevant statistical concepts are reviewed briefly. Then, a simple, hypothetical robot model is considered to illustrate methods for error propagation and performance test data evaluation. The importance of including error correlations is emphasized

  1. Regulating renewable resources under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Gårn

    ) that a pro-quota result under uncertainty about prices and marginal costs is unlikely, requiring that the resource growth function is highly concave locally around the optimum and, 3) that quotas are always preferred if uncertainly about underlying structural economic parameters dominates. These results...... showing that quotas are preferred in a number of situations qualify the pro fee message dominating prior studies....

  2. Uncertainty in the Real World

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 4; Issue 2. Uncertainty in the Real World - Fuzzy Sets. Satish Kumar. General Article Volume 4 Issue 2 February 1999 pp 37-47. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/004/02/0037-0047 ...

  3. Uncertainty of dustfall monitoring results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin A. van Nierop

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Fugitive dust has the ability to cause a nuisance and pollute the ambient environment, particularly from human activities including construction and industrial sites and mining operations. As such, dustfall monitoring has occurred for many decades in South Africa; little has been published on the repeatability, uncertainty, accuracy and precision of dustfall monitoring. Repeatability assesses the consistency associated with the results of a particular measurement under the same conditions; the consistency of the laboratory is assessed to determine the uncertainty associated with dustfall monitoring conducted by the laboratory. The aim of this study was to improve the understanding of the uncertainty in dustfall monitoring; thereby improving the confidence in dustfall monitoring. Uncertainty of dustfall monitoring was assessed through a 12-month study of 12 sites that were located on the boundary of the study area. Each site contained a directional dustfall sampler, which was modified by removing the rotating lid, with four buckets (A, B, C and D installed. Having four buckets on one stand allows for each bucket to be exposed to the same conditions, for the same period of time; therefore, should have equal amounts of dust deposited in these buckets. The difference in the weight (mg of the dust recorded from each bucket at each respective site was determined using the American Society for Testing and Materials method D1739 (ASTM D1739. The variability of the dust would provide the confidence level of dustfall monitoring when reporting to clients.

  4. Knowledge Uncertainty and Composed Classifier

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana; Ocelíková, E.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2007), s. 101-105 ISSN 1998-0140 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Boosting architecture * contextual modelling * composed classifier * knowledge management, * knowledge * uncertainty Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science

  5. Uncertainty propagation in nuclear forensics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pommé, S.; Jerome, S.M.; Venchiarutti, C.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty propagation formulae are presented for age dating in support of nuclear forensics. The age of radioactive material in this context refers to the time elapsed since a particular radionuclide was chemically separated from its decay product(s). The decay of the parent radionuclide and ingrowth of the daughter nuclide are governed by statistical decay laws. Mathematical equations allow calculation of the age of specific nuclear material through the atom ratio between parent and daughter nuclides, or through the activity ratio provided that the daughter nuclide is also unstable. The derivation of the uncertainty formulae of the age may present some difficulty to the user community and so the exact solutions, some approximations, a graphical representation and their interpretation are presented in this work. Typical nuclides of interest are actinides in the context of non-proliferation commitments. The uncertainty analysis is applied to a set of important parent–daughter pairs and the need for more precise half-life data is examined. - Highlights: • Uncertainty propagation formulae for age dating with nuclear chronometers. • Applied to parent–daughter pairs used in nuclear forensics. • Investigated need for better half-life data

  6. WASH-1400: quantifying the uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdmann, R.C.; Leverenz, F.L. Jr.; Lellouche, G.S.

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to focus on the limitations of the WASH-1400 analysis in estimating the risk from light water reactors (LWRs). This assessment attempts to modify the quantification of the uncertainty in and estimate of risk as presented by the RSS (reactor safety study). 8 refs

  7. Model uncertainty in growth empirics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prüfer, P.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis applies so-called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to three different economic questions substantially exposed to model uncertainty. Chapter 2 addresses a major issue of modern development economics: the analysis of the determinants of pro-poor growth (PPG), which seeks to combine high

  8. Forensic considerations when dealing with incinerated human dental remains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reesu, Gowri Vijay; Augustine, Jeyaseelan; Urs, Aadithya B

    2015-01-01

    Establishing the human dental identification process relies upon sufficient post-mortem data being recovered to allow for a meaningful comparison with ante-mortem records of the deceased person. Teeth are the most indestructible components of the human body and are structurally unique in their composition. They possess the highest resistance to most environmental effects like fire, desiccation, decomposition and prolonged immersion. In most natural as well as man-made disasters, teeth may provide the only means of positive identification of an otherwise unrecognizable body. It is imperative that dental evidence should not be destroyed through erroneous handling until appropriate radiographs, photographs, or impressions can be fabricated. Proper methods of physical stabilization of incinerated human dental remains should be followed. The maintenance of integrity of extremely fragile structures is crucial to the successful confirmation of identity. In such situations, the forensic dentist must stabilise these teeth before the fragile remains are transported to the mortuary to ensure preservation of possibly vital identification evidence. Thus, while dealing with any incinerated dental remains, a systematic approach must be followed through each stage of evaluation of incinerated dental remains to prevent the loss of potential dental evidence. This paper presents a composite review of various studies on incinerated human dental remains and discusses their impact on the process of human identification and suggests a step by step approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  9. Uncertainty governance: an integrated framework for managing and communicating uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Naito, M.; Takase, H.

    2004-01-01

    Treatment of uncertainty, or in other words, reasoning with imperfect information is widely recognised as being of great importance within performance assessment (PA) of the geological disposal mainly because of the time scale of interest and spatial heterogeneity that geological environment exhibits. A wide range of formal methods have been proposed for the optimal processing of incomplete information. Many of these methods rely on the use of numerical information, the frequency based concept of probability in particular, to handle the imperfections. However, taking quantitative information as a base for models that solve the problem of handling imperfect information merely creates another problem, i.e., how to provide the quantitative information. In many situations this second problem proves more resistant to solution, and in recent years several authors have looked at a particularly ingenious way in accordance with the rules of well-founded methods such as Bayesian probability theory, possibility theory, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Those methods, while drawing inspiration from quantitative methods, do not require the kind of complete numerical information required by quantitative methods. Instead they provide information that, though less precise than that provided by quantitative techniques, is often, if not sufficient, the best that could be achieved. Rather than searching for the best method for handling all imperfect information, our strategy for uncertainty management, that is recognition and evaluation of uncertainties associated with PA followed by planning and implementation of measures to reduce them, is to use whichever method best fits the problem at hand. Such an eclectic position leads naturally to integration of the different formalisms. While uncertainty management based on the combination of semi-quantitative methods forms an important part of our framework for uncertainty governance, it only solves half of the problem

  10. Nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty for the Canadian supercritical water-cooled reactor II: Full core analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langton, S.E.; Buijs, A.; Pencer, J.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling sensitivity. • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. • Isotopes of Zr make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. - Abstract: Uncertainties in nuclear data are a fundamental source of uncertainty in reactor physics calculations. To determine their contribution to uncertainties in calculated reactor physics parameters, a nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty study is performed on the Canadian supercritical water reactor (SCWR) concept. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to the neutron multiplication factor k eff are 6.31 mk for the SCWR at the beginning of cycle (BOC) and 6.99 mk at the end of cycle (EOC). Both of these uncertainties have a statistical uncertainty of 0.02 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to Coolant Void Reactivity (CVR) are 1.0 mk and 0.9 mk for BOC and EOC, respectively, both with statistical uncertainties of 0.1 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to other reactivity parameters range from as low as 3% of to as high as ten times the values of the reactivity coefficients. The largest contributors to the uncertainties in the reactor physics parameters are Pu-239, Th-232, H-2, and isotopes of zirconium

  11. Uncertainty analysis and validation of environmental models. The empirically based uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, Luigi; Hakanson, Lars; Bergstroem, Ulla; Brittain, John; Heling, Rudie

    1996-01-01

    The principles of Empirically Based Uncertainty Analysis (EBUA) are described. EBUA is based on the evaluation of 'performance indices' that express the level of agreement between the model and sets of empirical independent data collected in different experimental circumstances. Some of these indices may be used to evaluate the confidence limits of the model output. The method is based on the statistical analysis of the distribution of the index values and on the quantitative relationship of these values with the ratio 'experimental data/model output'. Some performance indices are described in the present paper. Among these, the so-called 'functional distance' (d) between the logarithm of model output and the logarithm of the experimental data, defined as d 2 =Σ n 1 ( ln M i - ln O i ) 2 /n where M i is the i-th experimental value, O i the corresponding model evaluation and n the number of the couplets 'experimental value, predicted value', is an important tool for the EBUA method. From the statistical distribution of this performance index, it is possible to infer the characteristics of the distribution of the ratio 'experimental data/model output' and, consequently to evaluate the confidence limits for the model predictions. This method was applied to calculate the uncertainty level of a model developed to predict the migration of radiocaesium in lacustrine systems. Unfortunately, performance indices are affected by the uncertainty of the experimental data used in validation. Indeed, measurement results of environmental levels of contamination are generally associated with large uncertainty due to the measurement and sampling techniques and to the large variability in space and time of the measured quantities. It is demonstrated that this non-desired effect, in some circumstances, may be corrected by means of simple formulae

  12. Development of a remaining lifetime management system for NPPS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galvan, J.C.; Regano, M.; Hevia Ruperez, F.

    1994-01-01

    The interest evinced by Spain nuclear power plants in providing a tool to support remaining lifetime management led to UNESA's application to OCIDE in 1992, and the latter's approval, for financing the project to develop a Remaining Lifetime Evaluation System for LWR nuclear power plants. This project is currently being developed under UNESA leadership, and the collaboration of three Spanish engineering companies and a research centre. The paper will describe its objectives, activities, current status and prospects. The project is defined in two phases, the first consisting of the identification and analysis of the main ageing phenomena and their significant parameters and specification of the Remaining Lifetime Evaluation System (RLES), and the second implementation of a pilot application of the RLES to verify its effectiveness. (Author)

  13. Remaining life assessment of a high pressure turbine rotor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Ninh; Little, Alfie

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes finite element and fracture mechanics based modelling work that provides a useful tool for evaluation of the remaining life of a high pressure (HP) steam turbine rotor that had experienced thermal fatigue cracking. An axis-symmetrical model of a HP rotor was constructed. Steam temperature, pressure and rotor speed data from start ups and shut downs were used for the thermal and stress analysis. Operating history and inspection records were used to benchmark the damage experienced by the rotor. Fracture mechanics crack growth analysis was carried out to evaluate the remaining life of the rotor under themal cyclic loading conditions. The work confirmed that the fracture mechanics approach in conjunction with finite element modelling provides a useful tool for assessing the remaining life of high temperature components in power plants.

  14. A novel dose uncertainty model and its application for dose verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Hosang; Chung Heetaek; Liu Chihray; Palta, Jatinder; Suh, Tae-Suk; Kim, Siyong

    2005-01-01

    Based on statistical approach, a novel dose uncertainty model was introduced considering both nonspatial and spatial dose deviations. Non-space-oriented uncertainty is mainly caused by dosimetric uncertainties, and space-oriented dose uncertainty is the uncertainty caused by all spatial displacements. Assuming these two parts are independent, dose difference between measurement and calculation is a linear combination of nonspatial and spatial dose uncertainties. Two assumptions were made: (1) the relative standard deviation of nonspatial dose uncertainty is inversely proportional to the dose standard deviation σ, and (2) the spatial dose uncertainty is proportional to the gradient of dose. The total dose uncertainty is a quadratic sum of the nonspatial and spatial uncertainties. The uncertainty model provides the tolerance dose bound for comparison between calculation and measurement. In the statistical uncertainty model based on a Gaussian distribution, a confidence level of 3σ theoretically confines 99.74% of measurements within the bound. By setting the confidence limit, the tolerance bound for dose comparison can be made analogous to that of existing dose comparison methods (e.g., a composite distribution analysis, a γ test, a χ evaluation, and a normalized agreement test method). However, the model considers the inherent dose uncertainty characteristics of the test points by taking into account the space-specific history of dose accumulation, while the previous methods apply a single tolerance criterion to the points, although dose uncertainty at each point is significantly different from others. Three types of one-dimensional test dose distributions (a single large field, a composite flat field made by two identical beams, and three-beam intensity-modulated fields) were made to verify the robustness of the model. For each test distribution, the dose bound predicted by the uncertainty model was compared with simulated measurements. The simulated

  15. On random age and remaining lifetime for populations of items

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Finkelstein, M.; Vaupel, J.

    2015-01-01

    We consider items that are incepted into operation having already a random (initial) age and define the corresponding remaining lifetime. We show that these lifetimes are identically distributed when the age distribution is equal to the equilibrium distribution of the renewal theory. Then we...... develop the population studies approach to the problem and generalize the setting in terms of stationary and stable populations of items. We obtain new stochastic comparisons for the corresponding population ages and remaining lifetimes that can be useful in applications. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley...

  16. Model structures amplify uncertainty in predicted soil carbon responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Zheng; Crowell, Sean; Luo, Yiqi; Moore, Berrien

    2018-06-04

    Large model uncertainty in projected future soil carbon (C) dynamics has been well documented. However, our understanding of the sources of this uncertainty is limited. Here we quantify the uncertainties arising from model parameters, structures and their interactions, and how those uncertainties propagate through different models to projections of future soil carbon stocks. Both the vertically resolved model and the microbial explicit model project much greater uncertainties to climate change than the conventional soil C model, with both positive and negative C-climate feedbacks, whereas the conventional model consistently predicts positive soil C-climate feedback. Our findings suggest that diverse model structures are necessary to increase confidence in soil C projection. However, the larger uncertainty in the complex models also suggests that we need to strike a balance between model complexity and the need to include diverse model structures in order to forecast soil C dynamics with high confidence and low uncertainty.

  17. Outcome and value uncertainties in global-change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammitt, J.K.

    1995-01-01

    Choices among environmental policies can be informed by analysis of the potential physical, biological, and social outcomes of alternative choices, and analysis of social preferences among these outcomes. Frequently, however, the consequences of alternative policies cannot be accurately predicted because of substantial outcome uncertainties concerning physical, chemical, biological, and social processes linking policy choices to consequences. Similarly, assessments of social preferences among alternative outcomes are limited by value uncertainties arising from limitations of moral principles, the absence of economic markets for many environmental attributes, and other factors. Outcome and value uncertainties relevant to global-change policy are described and their magnitudes are examined for two cases: stratospheric-ozone depletion and global climate change. Analysis of information available in the mid 1980s, when international ozone regulations were adopted, suggests that contemporary uncertainties surrounding CFC emissions and the atmospheric response were so large that plausible ozone depletion, absent regulation, ranged from negligible to catastrophic, a range that exceeded the plausible effect of the regulations considered. Analysis of climate change suggests that, important as outcome uncertainties are, uncertainties about values may be even more important for policy choice. 53 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  18. Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Jacobsson, P.; Pulkkinen, U.; Porn, K.

    1989-01-01

    This paper provides a review of the first phase of Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The main objective of this study is to use experiences form previous Nordic Benchmark Exercises and reference studies concerning critical modeling issues such as common cause failures and human interactions, and to demonstrate the impact of associated uncertainties on the uncertainty of the investigated accident sequence. This has been done independently by three working groups which used different approaches to modeling and to uncertainty analysis. The estimated uncertainty interval for the analyzed accident sequence is large. Also the discrepancies between the groups are substantial but can be explained. Sensitivity analyses which have been carried out concern e.g. use of different CCF-quantification models, alternative handling of CCF-data, time windows for operator actions and time dependences in phase mission operation, impact of state-of-knowledge dependences and ranking of dominating uncertainty contributors. Specific findings with respect to these issues are summarized in the paper

  19. Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

  20. Stereo-particle image velocimetry uncertainty quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharya, Sayantan; Vlachos, Pavlos P; Charonko, John J

    2017-01-01

    Particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements are subject to multiple elemental error sources and thus estimating overall measurement uncertainty is challenging. Recent advances have led to a posteriori uncertainty estimation methods for planar two-component PIV. However, no complete methodology exists for uncertainty quantification in stereo PIV. In the current work, a comprehensive framework is presented to quantify the uncertainty stemming from stereo registration error and combine it with the underlying planar velocity uncertainties. The disparity in particle locations of the dewarped images is used to estimate the positional uncertainty of the world coordinate system, which is then propagated to the uncertainty in the calibration mapping function coefficients. Next, the calibration uncertainty is combined with the planar uncertainty fields of the individual cameras through an uncertainty propagation equation and uncertainty estimates are obtained for all three velocity components. The methodology was tested with synthetic stereo PIV data for different light sheet thicknesses, with and without registration error, and also validated with an experimental vortex ring case from 2014 PIV challenge. Thorough sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the relative impact of the various parameters to the overall uncertainty. The results suggest that in absence of any disparity, the stereo PIV uncertainty prediction method is more sensitive to the planar uncertainty estimates than to the angle uncertainty, although the latter is not negligible for non-zero disparity. Overall the presented uncertainty quantification framework showed excellent agreement between the error and uncertainty RMS values for both the synthetic and the experimental data and demonstrated reliable uncertainty prediction coverage. This stereo PIV uncertainty quantification framework provides the first comprehensive treatment on the subject and potentially lays foundations applicable to volumetric

  1. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kreinovich, Vladik (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Oberkampf, William Louis (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ginzburg, Lev (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York)

    2007-05-01

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  2. Marketable pollution permits with uncertainty and transaction costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montero, Juan-Pablo

    1998-01-01

    Increasing interest in the use of marketable permits for pollution control has become evident in recent years. Concern regarding their performance still remains because empirical evidence has shown transaction costs and uncertainty to be significant in past and existing marketable permits programs. In this paper we develop theoretical and numerical models that include transaction costs and uncertainty (in trade approval) to show their effects on market performance (i.e., equilibrium price of permits and trading volume) and aggregate control costs. We also show that in the presence of transaction costs and uncertainty the initial allocation of permits may not be neutral in terms of efficiency. Furthermore, using a numerical model for a hypothetical NO x trading program in which participants have discrete control technology choices, we find that aggregate control costs and the equilibrium price of permits are sensitive to the initial allocation of permits, even for constant marginal transaction costs and certainty

  3. Evolution of motion uncertainty in rectal cancer: implications for adaptive radiotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleijnen, Jean-Paul J. E.; van Asselen, Bram; Burbach, Johannes P. M.; Intven, Martijn; Philippens, Marielle E. P.; Reerink, Onne; Lagendijk, Jan J. W.; Raaymakers, Bas W.

    2016-01-01

    Reduction of motion uncertainty by applying adaptive radiotherapy strategies depends largely on the temporal behavior of this motion. To fully optimize adaptive strategies, insight into target motion is needed. The purpose of this study was to analyze stability and evolution in time of motion uncertainty of both the gross tumor volume (GTV) and clinical target volume (CTV) for patients with rectal cancer. We scanned 16 patients daily during one week, on a 1.5 T MRI scanner in treatment position, prior to each radiotherapy fraction. Single slice sagittal cine MRIs were made at the beginning, middle, and end of each scan session, for one minute at 2 Hz temporal resolution. GTV and CTV motion were determined by registering a delineated reference frame to time-points later in time. The 95th percentile of observed motion (dist95%) was taken as a measure of motion. The stability of motion in time was evaluated within each cine-MRI separately. The evolution of motion was investigated between the reference frame and the cine-MRIs of a single scan session and between the reference frame and the cine-MRIs of several days later in the course of treatment. This observed motion was then converted into a PTV-margin estimate. Within a one minute cine-MRI scan, motion was found to be stable and small. Independent of the time-point within the scan session, the average dist95% remains below 3.6 mm and 2.3 mm for CTV and GTV, respectively 90% of the time. We found similar motion over time intervals from 18 min to 4 days. When reducing the time interval from 18 min to 1 min, a large reduction in motion uncertainty is observed. A reduction in motion uncertainty, and thus the PTV-margin estimate, of 71% and 75% for CTV and tumor was observed, respectively. Time intervals of 15 and 30 s yield no further reduction in motion uncertainty compared to a 1 min time interval.

  4. Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

  5. Local conditions and uncertainty bands for Semiscale Test S-02-9

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varacalle, D.J. Jr.

    1979-01-01

    Analysis was performed to derive local conditions heat transfer parameters and their uncertainties using computer codes and experimentally derived boundary conditions for the Semiscale core for LOCA Test S-02-9. Calculations performed consisted of nominal code cases using best-estimate input parameters and cases where the specified input parameters were perturbed in accordance with the response surface method of uncertainty analysis. The output parameters of interest were those that are used in film boiling heat transfer correlations including enthalpy, pressure, quality, and coolant flow rate. Large uncertainty deviations occurred during low core mass flow periods where the relative flow uncertainties were large. Utilizing the derived local conditions and their associated uncertainties, a study was then made which showed the uncertainty in film boiling heat transfer coefficient varied between 5 and 250%

  6. Methodology for Extraction of Remaining Sodium of Used Sodium Containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Minhwan; Kim, Jongman; Cho, Youngil; Jeong, Jiyoung

    2014-01-01

    Sodium used as a coolant in the SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor) reacts easily with most elements due to its high reactivity. If sodium at high temperature leaks outside of a system boundary and makes contact with oxygen, it starts to burn and toxic aerosols are produced. In addition, it generates flammable hydrogen gas through a reaction with water. Hydrogen gas can be explosive within the range of 4.75 vol%. Therefore, the sodium should be handled carefully in accordance with standard procedures even though there is a small amount of target sodium remainings inside the containers and drums used for experiment. After the experiment, all sodium experimental apparatuses should be dismantled carefully through a series of draining, residual sodium extraction, and cleaning if they are no longer reused. In this work, a system for the extraction of the remaining sodium of used sodium drums has been developed and an operation procedure for the system has been established. In this work, a methodology for the extraction of remaining sodium out of the used sodium container has been developed as one of the sodium facility maintenance works. The sodium extraction system for remaining sodium of the used drums was designed and tested successfully. This work will contribute to an establishment of sodium handling technology for PGSFR. (Prototype Gen-IV Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)

  7. Predicting the Remaining Useful Life of Rolling Element Bearings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hooghoudt, Jan Otto; Jantunen, E; Yi, Yang

    2018-01-01

    Condition monitoring of rolling element bearings is of vital importance in order to keep the industrial wheels running. In wind industry this is especially important due to the challenges in practical maintenance. The paper presents an attempt to improve the capability of prediction of remaining...

  8. The experiences of remaining nurse tutors during the transformation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The transformation of public services and education in South Africa is part of the political and socioeconomic transition to democracy. Changes are occurring in every fi eld, including that of the health services. A qualitative study was undertaken to investigate the experiences of the remaining nurse tutors at a school of ...

  9. Remaining childless : Causes and consequences from a life course perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, R.

    2010-01-01

    Little is know about childless individuals in the Netherlands, although currently one out of every five Dutch individuals remains childless. Who are they? How did they end up being childless? How and to what extent are their life outcomes influenced by their childlessness? By focusing on individual

  10. Palmar, Patellar, and Pedal Human Remains from Pavlov

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trinkaus, E.; Wojtal, P.; Wilczyński, J.; Sázelová, Sandra; Svoboda, Jiří

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 2017, June (2017), s. 73-101 ISSN 1545-0031 Institutional support: RVO:68081758 Keywords : Gravettian * human remains * isolated bones * anatomically modern humans * Upper Paleolithic Subject RIV: AC - Archeology, Anthropology, Ethnology OBOR OECD: Archaeology http://paleoanthro.org/media/journal/content/PA20170073.pdf

  11. Robotics to Enable Older Adults to Remain Living at Home

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan J. Pearce

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the rapidly ageing population, interest is growing in robots to enable older people to remain living at home. We conducted a systematic review and critical evaluation of the scientific literature, from 1990 to the present, on the use of robots in aged care. The key research questions were as follows: (1 what is the range of robotic devices available to enable older people to remain mobile, independent, and safe? and, (2 what is the evidence demonstrating that robotic devices are effective in enabling independent living in community dwelling older people? Following database searches for relevant literature an initial yield of 161 articles was obtained. Titles and abstracts of articles were then reviewed by 2 independent people to determine suitability for inclusion. Forty-two articles met the criteria for question 1. Of these, 4 articles met the criteria for question 2. Results showed that robotics is currently available to assist older healthy people and people with disabilities to remain independent and to monitor their safety and social connectedness. Most studies were conducted in laboratories and hospital clinics. Currently limited evidence demonstrates that robots can be used to enable people to remain living at home, although this is an emerging smart technology that is rapidly evolving.

  12. Authentic leadership: becoming and remaining an authentic nurse leader.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Lin G

    2012-11-01

    This article explores how chief nurse executives became and remained authentic leaders. Using narrative inquiry, this qualitative study focused on the life stories of participants. Results demonstrate the importance of reframing, reflection in alignment with values, and the courage needed as nurse leaders progress to authenticity.

  13. Robotics to enable older adults to remain living at home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Alan J; Adair, Brooke; Miller, Kimberly; Ozanne, Elizabeth; Said, Catherine; Santamaria, Nick; Morris, Meg E

    2012-01-01

    Given the rapidly ageing population, interest is growing in robots to enable older people to remain living at home. We conducted a systematic review and critical evaluation of the scientific literature, from 1990 to the present, on the use of robots in aged care. The key research questions were as follows: (1) what is the range of robotic devices available to enable older people to remain mobile, independent, and safe? and, (2) what is the evidence demonstrating that robotic devices are effective in enabling independent living in community dwelling older people? Following database searches for relevant literature an initial yield of 161 articles was obtained. Titles and abstracts of articles were then reviewed by 2 independent people to determine suitability for inclusion. Forty-two articles met the criteria for question 1. Of these, 4 articles met the criteria for question 2. Results showed that robotics is currently available to assist older healthy people and people with disabilities to remain independent and to monitor their safety and social connectedness. Most studies were conducted in laboratories and hospital clinics. Currently limited evidence demonstrates that robots can be used to enable people to remain living at home, although this is an emerging smart technology that is rapidly evolving.

  14. Dinosaur remains from the type Maastrichtian: An update

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weishampel, David B.; Mulder, Eric W A; Dortangs, Rudi W.; Jagt, John W M; Jianu, Coralia Maria; Kuypers, Marcel M M; Peeters, Hans H G; Schulp, Anne S.

    1999-01-01

    Isolated cranial and post-cranial remains of hadrosaurid dinosaurs have been collected from various outcrops in the type area of the Maastrichtian stage during the last few years. In the present contribution, dentary and maxillary teeth are recorded from the area for the first time. Post-cranial

  15. Modeling of uncertainties in biochemical reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mišković, Ljubiša; Hatzimanikatis, Vassily

    2011-02-01

    Mathematical modeling is an indispensable tool for research and development in biotechnology and bioengineering. The formulation of kinetic models of biochemical networks depends on knowledge of the kinetic properties of the enzymes of the individual reactions. However, kinetic data acquired from experimental observations bring along uncertainties due to various experimental conditions and measurement methods. In this contribution, we propose a novel way to model the uncertainty in the enzyme kinetics and to predict quantitatively the responses of metabolic reactions to the changes in enzyme activities under uncertainty. The proposed methodology accounts explicitly for mechanistic properties of enzymes and physico-chemical and thermodynamic constraints, and is based on formalism from systems theory and metabolic control analysis. We achieve this by observing that kinetic responses of metabolic reactions depend: (i) on the distribution of the enzymes among their free form and all reactive states; (ii) on the equilibrium displacements of the overall reaction and that of the individual enzymatic steps; and (iii) on the net fluxes through the enzyme. Relying on this observation, we develop a novel, efficient Monte Carlo sampling procedure to generate all states within a metabolic reaction that satisfy imposed constrains. Thus, we derive the statistics of the expected responses of the metabolic reactions to changes in enzyme levels and activities, in the levels of metabolites, and in the values of the kinetic parameters. We present aspects of the proposed framework through an example of the fundamental three-step reversible enzymatic reaction mechanism. We demonstrate that the equilibrium displacements of the individual enzymatic steps have an important influence on kinetic responses of the enzyme. Furthermore, we derive the conditions that must be satisfied by a reversible three-step enzymatic reaction operating far away from the equilibrium in order to respond to

  16. Uncertainty assessment for accelerator-driven systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finck, P. J.; Gomes, I.; Micklich, B.; Palmiotti, G.

    1999-01-01

    The concept of a subcritical system driven by an external source of neutrons provided by an accelerator ADS (Accelerator Driver System) has been recently revived and is becoming more popular in the world technical community with active programs in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. A general consensus has been reached in adopting for the subcritical component a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled configuration. Both a lead-bismuth eutectic, sodium and gas are being considered as a coolant; each has advantages and disadvantages. The major expected advantage is that subcriticality avoids reactivity induced transients. The potentially large subcriticality margin also should allow for the introduction of very significant quantities of waste products (minor Actinides and Fission Products) which negatively impact the safety characteristics of standard cores. In the U.S. these arguments are the basis for the development of the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW), which has significant potential in reducing nuclear waste levels. Up to now, neutronic calculations have not attached uncertainties on the values of the main nuclear integral parameters that characterize the system. Many of these parameters (e.g., degree of subcriticality) are crucial to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of this concept. In this paper we will consider uncertainties related to nuclear data only. The present knowledge of the cross sections of many isotopes that are not usually utilized in existing reactors (like Bi, Pb-207, Pb-208, and also Minor Actinides and Fission Products) suggests that uncertainties in the integral parameters will be significantly larger than for conventional reactor systems, and this raises concerns on the neutronic performance of those systems

  17. Structural Uncertainty in Antarctic sea ice simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, D. P.

    2016-12-01

    The inability of the vast majority of historical climate model simulations to reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice has motivated many studies about the quality of the observational record, the role of natural variability versus forced changes, and the possibility of missing or inadequate forcings in the models (such as freshwater discharge from thinning ice shelves or an inadequate magnitude of stratospheric ozone depletion). In this presentation I will highlight another source of uncertainty that has received comparatively little attention: Structural uncertainty, that is, the systematic uncertainty in simulated sea ice trends that arises from model physics and mean-state biases. Using two large ensembles of experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), I will show that the model is predisposed towards producing negative Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979-present, and that this outcome is not simply because the model's decadal variability is out-of-synch with that in nature. In the "Tropical Pacific Pacemaker" ensemble, in which observed tropical Pacific SST anomalies are prescribed, the model produces very realistic atmospheric circulation trends over the Southern Ocean, yet the sea ice trend is negative in every ensemble member. However, if the ensemble-mean trend (commonly interpreted as the forced response) is removed, some ensemble members show a sea ice increase that is very similar to the observed. While this results does confirm the important role of natural variability, it also suggests a strong bias in the forced response. I will discuss the reasons for this systematic bias and explore possible remedies. This an important problem to solve because projections of 21st -Century changes in the Antarctic climate system (including ice sheet surface mass balance changes and related changes in the sea level budget) have a strong dependence on the mean state of and changes in the Antarctic sea ice cover. This problem is not unique to

  18. Uncertainty Estimates in Cold Critical Eigenvalue Predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karve, Atul A.; Moore, Brian R.; Mills, Vernon W.; Marrotte, Gary N.

    2005-01-01

    A recent cycle of a General Electric boiling water reactor performed two beginning-of-cycle local cold criticals. The eigenvalues estimated by the core simulator were 0.99826 and 1.00610. The large spread in them (= 0.00784) is a source of concern, and it is studied here. An analysis process is developed using statistical techniques, where first a transfer function relating the core observable Y (eigenvalue) to various factors (X's) is established. Engineering judgment is used to recognize the best candidates for X's. They are identified as power-weighted assembly k ∞ 's of selected assemblies around the withdrawn rods. These are a small subset of many X's that could potentially influence Y. However, the intention here is not to do a comprehensive study by accounting for all the X's. Rather, the scope is to demonstrate that the process developed is reasonable and to show its applicability to performing detailed studies. Variability in X's is obtained by perturbing nodal k ∞ 's since they directly influence the buckling term in the quasi-two-group diffusion equation model of the core simulator. Any perturbations introduced in them are bounded by standard well-established uncertainties. The resulting perturbations in the X's may not necessarily be directly correlated to physical attributes, but they encompass numerous biases and uncertainties credited to input and modeling uncertainties. The 'vital few' from the 'unimportant many' X's are determined, and then they are subgrouped according to assembly type, location, exposure, and control rod insertion. The goal is to study how the subgroups influence Y in order to have a better understanding of the variability observed in it

  19. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  20. Managing uncertainty during r&d projects: a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Marc; Roorda, Berend; Gal, Ruud

    2011-01-01

    Firms make signifi cant investments in R&D projects, yet the economic return is often diffi cult to predict because of signifi cant technological and commercial uncertainty. We present an innovative and practical method for managing R&D projects, and we discuss its application to a large R&D

  1. The Leadership Game : Experiencing Dynamic Complexity under Deep Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Segers, J.; Oruc, S.

    2011-01-01

    In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity

  2. Applied research in uncertainty modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ayyub, Bilal

    2005-01-01

    Uncertainty has been a concern to engineers, managers, and scientists for many years. For a long time uncertainty has been considered synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Since the early sixties views on uncertainty have become more heterogeneous. In the past forty years numerous tools that model uncertainty, above and beyond statistics, have been proposed by several engineers and scientists. The tool/method to model uncertainty in a specific context should really be chosen by considering the features of the phenomenon under consideration, not independent of what is known about the system and what causes uncertainty. In this fascinating overview of the field, the authors provide broad coverage of uncertainty analysis/modeling and its application. Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis presents the perspectives of various researchers and practitioners on uncertainty analysis and modeling outside their own fields and domain expertise. Rather than focusing explicitly on...

  3. Evaluation of advanced coal gasification combined-cycle systems under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey, H.C.; Rubin, E.S.

    1992-01-01

    Advanced integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems have not been commercially demonstrated, and uncertainties remain regarding their commercial-scale performance and cost. Therefore, a probabilistic evaluation method has been developed and applied to explicitly consider these uncertainties. The insights afforded by this method are illustrated for an IGCC design featuring a fixed-bed gasifier and a hot gas cleanup system. Detailed case studies are conducted to characterize uncertainties in key measures of process performance and cost, evaluate design trade-offs under uncertainty, identify research priorities, evaluate the potential benefits of additional research, compare results for different uncertainty assumptions, and compare the advanced IGCC system to a conventional system under uncertainty. The implications of probabilistic results for research planning and technology selection are discussed in this paper

  4. Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Dittes

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Technical flood protection is a necessary part of integrated strategies to protect riverine settlements from extreme floods. Many technical flood protection measures, such as dikes and protection walls, are costly to adapt after their initial construction. This poses a challenge to decision makers as there is large uncertainty in how the required protection level will change during the measure lifetime, which is typically many decades long. Flood protection requirements should account for multiple future uncertain factors: socioeconomic, e.g., whether the population and with it the damage potential grows or falls; technological, e.g., possible advancements in flood protection; and climatic, e.g., whether extreme discharge will become more frequent or not. This paper focuses on climatic uncertainty. Specifically, we devise methodology to account for uncertainty associated with the use of discharge projections, ultimately leading to planning implications. For planning purposes, we categorize uncertainties as either visible, if they can be quantified from available catchment data, or hidden, if they cannot be quantified from catchment data and must be estimated, e.g., from the literature. It is vital to consider the hidden uncertainty, since in practical applications only a limited amount of information (e.g., a finite projection ensemble is available. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify the visible uncertainties and combine them with an estimate of the hidden uncertainties to learn a joint probability distribution of the parameters of extreme discharge. The methodology is integrated into an optimization framework and applied to a pre-alpine case study to give a quantitative, cost-optimal recommendation on the required amount of flood protection. The results show that hidden uncertainty ought to be considered in planning, but the larger the uncertainty already present, the smaller the impact of adding more. The recommended planning is

  5. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  6. Uncertainty of the calibration factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    According to present definitions, an error is the difference between a measured value and the ''true'' value. Thus an error has both a numerical value and a sign. In contrast, the uncertainly associated with a measurement is a parameter that characterizes the dispersion of the values ''that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand''. This parameter is normally an estimated standard deviation. An uncertainty, therefore, has no known sign and is usually assumed to be symmetrical. It is a measure of our lack of exact knowledge, after all recognized ''systematic'' effects have been eliminated by applying appropriate corrections. If errors were known exactly, the true value could be determined and there would be no problem left. In reality, errors are estimated in the best possible way and corrections made for them. Therefore, after application of all known corrections, errors need no further consideration (their expectation value being zero) and the only quantities of interest are uncertainties. 3 refs, 2 figs

  7. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

  8. Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, K.

    2010-08-12

    The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  9. Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, K.; Kniss, J.; Riesenfeld, R.; Johnson, C.R.

    2010-01-01

    The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Statistical uncertainties and unrecognized relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rankin, J.P.

    1985-01-01

    Hidden relationships in specific designs directly contribute to inaccuracies in reliability assessments. Uncertainty factors at the system level may sometimes be applied in attempts to compensate for the impact of such unrecognized relationships. Often uncertainty bands are used to relegate unknowns to a miscellaneous category of low-probability occurrences. However, experience and modern analytical methods indicate that perhaps the dominant, most probable and significant events are sometimes overlooked in statistical reliability assurances. The author discusses the utility of two unique methods of identifying the otherwise often unforeseeable system interdependencies for statistical evaluations. These methods are sneak circuit analysis and a checklist form of common cause failure analysis. Unless these techniques (or a suitable equivalent) are also employed along with the more widely-known assurance tools, high reliability of complex systems may not be adequately assured. This concern is indicated by specific illustrations. 8 references, 5 figures

  11. The uncertainty budget in pharmaceutical industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj

    of their uncertainty, exactly as described in GUM [2]. Pharmaceutical industry has therefore over the last 5 years shown increasing interest in accreditation according to ISO 17025 [3], and today uncertainty budgets are being developed for all so-called critical measurements. The uncertainty of results obtained...... that the uncertainty of a particular result is independent of the method used for its estimation. Several examples of uncertainty budgets for critical parameters based on the bottom-up procedure will be discussed, and it will be shown how the top-down method is used as a means of verifying uncertainty budgets, based...

  12. Improvement of uncertainty relations for mixed states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Yong Moon

    2005-01-01

    We study a possible improvement of uncertainty relations. The Heisenberg uncertainty relation employs commutator of a pair of conjugate observables to set the limit of quantum measurement of the observables. The Schroedinger uncertainty relation improves the Heisenberg uncertainty relation by adding the correlation in terms of anti-commutator. However both relations are insensitive whether the state used is pure or mixed. We improve the uncertainty relations by introducing additional terms which measure the mixtureness of the state. For the momentum and position operators as conjugate observables and for the thermal state of quantum harmonic oscillator, it turns out that the equalities in the improved uncertainty relations hold

  13. Adjoint-Based Uncertainty Quantification with MCNP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seifried, Jeffrey E. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-09-01

    This work serves to quantify the instantaneous uncertainties in neutron transport simulations born from nuclear data and statistical counting uncertainties. Perturbation and adjoint theories are used to derive implicit sensitivity expressions. These expressions are transformed into forms that are convenient for construction with MCNP6, creating the ability to perform adjoint-based uncertainty quantification with MCNP6. These new tools are exercised on the depleted-uranium hybrid LIFE blanket, quantifying its sensitivities and uncertainties to important figures of merit. Overall, these uncertainty estimates are small (< 2%). Having quantified the sensitivities and uncertainties, physical understanding of the system is gained and some confidence in the simulation is acquired.

  14. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

  15. The uncertainty processing theory of motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anselme, Patrick

    2010-04-02

    Most theories describe motivation using basic terminology (drive, 'wanting', goal, pleasure, etc.) that fails to inform well about the psychological mechanisms controlling its expression. This leads to a conception of motivation as a mere psychological state 'emerging' from neurophysiological substrates. However, the involvement of motivation in a large number of behavioural parameters (triggering, intensity, duration, and directedness) and cognitive abilities (learning, memory, decision, etc.) suggest that it should be viewed as an information processing system. The uncertainty processing theory (UPT) presented here suggests that motivation is the set of cognitive processes allowing organisms to extract information from the environment by reducing uncertainty about the occurrence of psychologically significant events. This processing of information is shown to naturally result in the highlighting of specific stimuli. The UPT attempts to solve three major problems: (i) how motivations can affect behaviour and cognition so widely, (ii) how motivational specificity for objects and events can result from nonspecific neuropharmacological causal factors (such as mesolimbic dopamine), and (iii) how motivational interactions can be conceived in psychological terms, irrespective of their biological correlates. The UPT is in keeping with the conceptual tradition of the incentive salience hypothesis while trying to overcome the shortcomings inherent to this view. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Conditional Betas and Investor Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Fernando D. Chague

    2013-01-01

    We derive theoretical expressions for market betas from a rational expectation equilibrium model where the representative investor does not observe if the economy is in a recession or an expansion. Market betas in this economy are time-varying and related to investor uncertainty about the state of the economy. The dynamics of betas will also vary across assets according to the assets' cash-flow structure. In a calibration exercise, we show that value and growth firms have cash-flow structures...

  17. Aggregate Uncertainty, Money and Banking

    OpenAIRE

    Hongfei Sun

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the problem of monitoring the monitor in a model of money and banking with aggregate uncertainty. It shows that when inside money is required as a means of bank loan repayment, a market of inside money is entailed at the repayment stage and generates information-revealing prices that perfectly discipline the bank. The incentive problem of a bank is costlessly overcome simply by involving inside money in repayment. Inside money distinguishes itself from outside money by its ...

  18. Decision Under Uncertainty in Diagnosis

    OpenAIRE

    Kalme, Charles I.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge based diagnosis may be viewed as the generic form at the compiled end of the spectrum. A major undercurrent in this is advocating the need for a strong underlying model and an integrated set of support tools for carrying such a model in order to deal with ...

  19. Uncertainty analysis for hot channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panka, I.; Kereszturi, A.

    2006-01-01

    The fulfillment of the safety analysis acceptance criteria is usually evaluated by separate hot channel calculations using the results of neutronic or/and thermo hydraulic system calculations. In case of an ATWS event (inadvertent withdrawal of control assembly), according to the analysis, a number of fuel rods are experiencing DNB for a longer time and must be regarded as failed. Their number must be determined for a further evaluation of the radiological consequences. In the deterministic approach, the global power history must be multiplied by different hot channel factors (kx) taking into account the radial power peaking factors for each fuel pin. If DNB occurs it is necessary to perform a few number of hot channel calculations to determine the limiting kx leading just to DNB and fuel failure (the conservative DNBR limit is 1.33). Knowing the pin power distribution from the core design calculation, the number of failed fuel pins can be calculated. The above procedure can be performed by conservative assumptions (e.g. conservative input parameters in the hot channel calculations), as well. In case of hot channel uncertainty analysis, the relevant input parameters (k x, mass flow, inlet temperature of the coolant, pin average burnup, initial gap size, selection of power history influencing the gap conductance value) of hot channel calculations and the DNBR limit are varied considering the respective uncertainties. An uncertainty analysis methodology was elaborated combining the response surface method with the one sided tolerance limit method of Wilks. The results of deterministic and uncertainty hot channel calculations are compared regarding to the number of failed fuel rods, max. temperature of the clad surface and max. temperature of the fuel (Authors)

  20. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  1. Microeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Indeterminacy

    OpenAIRE

    Fagnart, Jean-François; Pierrard, Olivier; Sneessens, Henri

    2005-01-01

    The paper proposes a stylized intertemporal macroeconomic model wherein the combination of decentralized trading and microeconomic uncertainty (taking the form of privately observed and uninsured idiosyncratic shocks) creates an information problem between agents and generates indeterminacy of the macroeconomic equilibrium. For a given value of the economic fundamentals, the economy admits a continuum of equilibria that can be indexed by the sales expectations of firms at the time of investme...

  2. LOFT differential pressure uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R.P.; Biladeau, G.L.; Quinn, P.A.

    1977-03-01

    A performance analysis of the LOFT differential pressure (ΔP) measurement is presented. Along with completed descriptions of test programs and theoretical studies that have been conducted on the ΔP, specific sources of measurement uncertainty are identified, quantified, and combined to provide an assessment of the ability of this measurement to satisfy the SDD 1.4.1C (June 1975) requirement of measurement of differential pressure

  3. Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, J.

    1986-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

  4. Accommodating Uncertainty in Prior Distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picard, Richard Roy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Vander Wiel, Scott Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-01-19

    A fundamental premise of Bayesian methodology is that a priori information is accurately summarized by a single, precisely de ned prior distribution. In many cases, especially involving informative priors, this premise is false, and the (mis)application of Bayes methods produces posterior quantities whose apparent precisions are highly misleading. We examine the implications of uncertainty in prior distributions, and present graphical methods for dealing with them.

  5. Lived Experiences of "Illness Uncertainty" of Iranian Cancer Patients: A Phenomenological Hermeneutic Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajjadi, Moosa; Rassouli, Maryam; Abbaszadeh, Abbas; Brant, Jeannine; Majd, Hamid Alavi

    2016-01-01

    For cancer patients, uncertainty is a pervasive experience and a major psychological stressor that affects many aspects of their lives. Uncertainty is a multifaceted concept, and its understanding for patients depends on many factors, including factors associated with various sociocultural contexts. Unfortunately, little is known about the concept of uncertainty in Iranian society and culture. This study aimed to clarify the concept and explain lived experiences of illness uncertainty in Iranian cancer patients. In this hermeneutic phenomenological study, 8 cancer patients participated in semistructured in-depth interviews about their experiences of uncertainty in illness. Interviews continued until data saturation was reached. All interviews were recorded, transcribed, analyzed, and interpreted using 6 stages of the van Manen phenomenological approach. Seven main themes emerged from patients' experiences of illness uncertainty of cancer. Four themes contributed to uncertainty including "Complexity of Cancer," "Confusion About Cancer," "Contradictory Information," and "Unknown Future." Two themes facilitated coping with uncertainty including "Seeking Knowledge" and "Need for Spiritual Peace." One theme, "Knowledge Ambivalence," revealed the struggle between wanting to know and not wanting to know, especially if bad news was delivered. Uncertainty experience for cancer patients in different societies is largely similar. However, some experiences (eg, ambiguity in access to medical resources) seemed unique to Iranian patients. This study provided an outlook of cancer patients' experiences of illness uncertainty in Iran. Cancer patients' coping ability to deal with uncertainty can be improved.

  6. Uncertainties in historical pollution data from sedimentary records from an Australian urban floodplain lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lintern, A.; Leahy, P.; Deletic, A.; Heijnis, H.; Zawadzki, A.; Gadd, P.; McCarthy, D.

    2018-05-01

    Sediment cores from aquatic environments can provide valuable information about historical pollution levels and sources. However, there is little understanding of the uncertainties associated with these findings. The aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap by proposing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties in historical heavy metal pollution records reconstructed from sediment cores. This uncertainty framework consists of six sources of uncertainty: uncertainties in (1) metals analysis methods, (2) spatial variability of sediment core heavy metal profiles, (3) sub-sampling intervals, (4) the sediment chronology, (5) the assumption that metal levels in bed sediments reflect the magnitude of metal inputs into the aquatic system, and (6) post-depositional transformation of metals. We apply this uncertainty framework to an urban floodplain lake in South-East Australia (Willsmere Billabong). We find that for this site, uncertainties in historical dated heavy metal profiles can be up to 176%, largely due to uncertainties in the sediment chronology, and in the assumption that the settled heavy metal mass is equivalent to the heavy metal mass entering the aquatic system. As such, we recommend that future studies reconstructing historical pollution records using sediment cores from aquatic systems undertake an investigation of the uncertainties in the reconstructed pollution record, using the uncertainty framework provided in this study. We envisage that quantifying and understanding the uncertainties associated with the reconstructed pollution records will facilitate the practical application of sediment core heavy metal profiles in environmental management projects.

  7. Safety provision for nuclear power plants during remaining running time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossnagel, Alexander; Hentschel, Anja

    2012-01-01

    With the phasing-out of the industrial use of nuclear energy for the power generation, the risk of the nuclear power plants has not been eliminated in principle, but only for a limited period of time. Therefore, the remaining nine nuclear power plants must also be used for the remaining ten years according to the state of science and technology. Regulatory authorities must substantiate the safety requirements for each nuclear power plant and enforce these requirements by means of various regulatory measures. The consequences of Fukushima must be included in the assessment of the safety level of nuclear power plants in Germany. In this respect, the regulatory authorities have the important tasks to investigate and assess the security risks as well as to develop instructions and orders.

  8. Structural remains at the early mediaeval fort at Raibania, Orissa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bratati Sen

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The fortifications of mediaeval India occupy an eminent position in the history of military architecture. The present paper deals with the preliminary study of the structural remains at the early mediaeval fort at Raibania in the district of Balasore in Orissa. The fort was built of stone very loosely kept together. The three-walled fortification interspersed by two consecutive moats, a feature evidenced at Raibania, which is unparallel in the history of ancient and mediaeval forts and fortifications in India. Several other structures like the Jay-Chandi Temple Complex, a huge well, numerous tanks and remains of an ancient bridge add to the uniqueness of the Fort in the entire eastern region.

  9. Mineral remains of early life on Earth? On Mars?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iberall, Robbins E.; Iberall, A.S.

    1991-01-01

    The oldest sedimentary rocks on Earth, the 3.8-Ga Isua Iron-Formation in southwestern Greenland, are metamorphosed past the point where organic-walled fossils would remain. Acid residues and thin sections of these rocks reveal ferric microstructures that have filamentous, hollow rod, and spherical shapes not characteristic of crystalline minerals. Instead, they resemble ferric-coated remains of bacteria. Because there are no earlier sedimentary rocks to study on Earth, it may be necessary to expand the search elsewhere in the solar system for clues to any biotic precursors or other types of early life. A study of morphologies of iron oxide minerals collected in the southern highlands during a Mars sample return mission may therefore help to fill in important gaps in the history of Earth's earliest biosphere. -from Authors

  10. Managing project risks and uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

  11. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Malpica Galassi, Riccardo

    2017-03-06

    A general strategy for analysis and reduction of uncertain chemical kinetic models is presented, and its utility is illustrated in the context of ignition of hydrocarbon fuel–air mixtures. The strategy is based on a deterministic analysis and reduction method which employs computational singular perturbation analysis to generate simplified kinetic mechanisms, starting from a detailed reference mechanism. We model uncertain quantities in the reference mechanism, namely the Arrhenius rate parameters, as random variables with prescribed uncertainty factors. We propagate this uncertainty to obtain the probability of inclusion of each reaction in the simplified mechanism. We propose probabilistic error measures to compare predictions from the uncertain reference and simplified models, based on the comparison of the uncertain dynamics of the state variables, where the mixture entropy is chosen as progress variable. We employ the construction for the simplification of an uncertain mechanism in an n-butane–air mixture homogeneous ignition case, where a 176-species, 1111-reactions detailed kinetic model for the oxidation of n-butane is used with uncertainty factors assigned to each Arrhenius rate pre-exponential coefficient. This illustration is employed to highlight the utility of the construction, and the performance of a family of simplified models produced depending on chosen thresholds on importance and marginal probabilities of the reactions.

  12. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOFARO, R.; SOO, P.; VILLARAN, M.; GROVE, E.

    2001-01-01

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed

  13. Study on remain actinides recovery in pyro reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suharto, Bambang

    1996-01-01

    The spent fuel reprocessing by dry process called pyro reprocessing have been studied. Most of U, Pu and MA (minor actinides) from the spent fuel will be recovered and be fed back to the reactor as new fuel. Accumulation of remain actinides will be separated by extraction process with liquid cadmium solvent. The research was conducted by computer simulation to calculate the stage number required. The calculation's results showed on the 20 stages extractor more than 99% actinides can be separated. (author)

  14. US GAAP vs. IFRS – A COMPARISON OF REMAINING DIFFERENCES

    OpenAIRE

    Mihelčić, Eva

    2008-01-01

    In spite of the on-going harmonization process, there are still some differences between US GAAP and IFRS. Currently, companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, which are reporting according to IFRS, must still prepare the reconciliation to US GAAP, to show the financial statements compliant with US GAAP as well. This article presents an overview of the remaining major differences between US GAAP and IFRS, descriptive as well as table-wise. First, the standards compared are shortly intr...

  15. Structural remains at the early mediaeval fort at Raibania, Orissa

    OpenAIRE

    Sen, Bratati

    2013-01-01

    The fortifications of mediaeval India occupy an eminent position in the history of military architecture. The present paper deals with the preliminary study of the structural remains at the early mediaeval fort at Raibania in the district of Balasore in Orissa. The fort was built of stone very loosely kept together. The three-walled fortification interspersed by two consecutive moats, a feature evidenced at Raibania, w...

  16. Neanderthal infant and adult infracranial remains from Marillac (Charente, France).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolores Garralda, María; Maureille, Bruno; Vandermeersch, Bernard

    2014-09-01

    At the site of Marillac, near the Ligonne River in Marillac-le-Franc (Charente, France), a remarkable stratigraphic sequence has yielded a wealth of archaeological information, palaeoenvironmental data, as well as faunal and human remains. Marillac must have been a sinkhole used by Neanderthal groups as a hunting camp during MIS 4 (TL date 57,600 ± 4,600BP), where Quina Mousterian lithics and fragmented bones of reindeer predominate. This article describes three infracranial skeleton fragments. Two of them are from adults and consist of the incomplete shafts of a right radius (Marillac 24) and a left fibula (Marillac 26). The third fragment is the diaphysis of the right femur of an immature individual (Marillac 25), the size and shape of which resembles those from Teshik-Tash and could be assigned to a child of a similar age. The three fossils have been compared with the remains of other Neanderthals or anatomically Modern Humans (AMH). Furthermore, the comparison of the infantile femora, Marillac 25 and Teshik-Tash, with the remains of several European children from the early Middle Ages clearly demonstrates the robustness and rounded shape of both Neanderthal diaphyses. Evidence of peri-mortem manipulations have been identified on all three bones, with spiral fractures, percussion pits and, in the case of the radius and femur, unquestionable cutmarks made with flint implements, probably during defleshing. Traces of periostosis appear on the fibula fragment and on the immature femoral diaphysis, although their aetiology remains unknown. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikorska, J. Z.; Hodkiewicz, M.; Ma, L.

    2011-07-01

    Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

  18. Remaining useful life estimation based on discriminating shapelet extraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malinowski, Simon; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2015-01-01

    In the Prognostics and Health Management domain, estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of critical machinery is a challenging task. Various research topics including data acquisition, fusion, diagnostics and prognostics are involved in this domain. This paper presents an approach, based on shapelet extraction, to estimate the RUL of equipment. This approach extracts, in an offline step, discriminative rul-shapelets from an history of run-to-failure data. These rul-shapelets are patterns that are selected for their correlation with the remaining useful life of the equipment. In other words, every selected rul-shapelet conveys its own information about the RUL of the equipment. In an online step, these rul-shapelets are compared to testing units and the ones that match these units are used to estimate their RULs. Therefore, RUL estimation is based on patterns that have been selected for their high correlation with the RUL. This approach is different from classical similarity-based approaches that attempt to match complete testing units (or only late instants of testing units) with training ones to estimate the RUL. The performance of our approach is evaluated on a case study on the remaining useful life estimation of turbofan engines and performance is compared with other similarity-based approaches. - Highlights: • A data-driven RUL estimation technique based on pattern extraction is proposed. • Patterns are extracted for their correlation with the RUL. • The proposed method shows good performance compared to other techniques

  19. Direct dating of Early Upper Palaeolithic human remains from Mladec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Eva M; Teschler-Nicola, Maria; Kutschera, Walter; Steier, Peter; Trinkaus, Erik; Wanek, Wolfgang

    2005-05-19

    The human fossil assemblage from the Mladec Caves in Moravia (Czech Republic) has been considered to derive from a middle or later phase of the Central European Aurignacian period on the basis of archaeological remains (a few stone artefacts and organic items such as bone points, awls, perforated teeth), despite questions of association between the human fossils and the archaeological materials and concerning the chronological implications of the limited archaeological remains. The morphological variability in the human assemblage, the presence of apparently archaic features in some specimens, and the assumed early date of the remains have made this fossil assemblage pivotal in assessments of modern human emergence within Europe. We present here the first successful direct accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating of five representative human fossils from the site. We selected sample materials from teeth and from one bone for 14C dating. The four tooth samples yielded uncalibrated ages of approximately 31,000 14C years before present, and the bone sample (an ulna) provided an uncertain more-recent age. These data are sufficient to confirm that the Mladec human assemblage is the oldest cranial, dental and postcranial assemblage of early modern humans in Europe and is therefore central to discussions of modern human emergence in the northwestern Old World and the fate of the Neanderthals.

  20. Remaining life diagnosis method and device for nuclear reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Michiyoshi.

    1996-01-01

    A neutron flux measuring means is inserted from the outside of a reactor pressure vessel during reactor operation to forecast neutron-degradation of materials of incore structural components in the vicinity of portions to be measured based on the measured values, and the remaining life of the reactor is diagnosed by the forecast degraded state. In this case, the neutron fluxes to be measured are desirably fast and/or medium neutron fluxes. As the positions where the measuring means is to be inserted, for example, the vicinity of the structural components at the periphery of the fuel assembly is selected. Aging degradation characteristics of the structural components are determined by using the aging degradation data for the structural materials. The remaining life is analyzed based on obtained aging degradation characteristics and stress evaluation data of the incore structural components at portions to be measured. Neutron irradiation amount of structural components at predetermined positions can be recognized accurately, and appropriate countermeasures can be taken depending on the forecast remaining life thereby enabling to improve the reliability of the reactor. (N.H.)