WorldWideScience

Sample records for large financial crashes

  1. Large truck and bus crash facts, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2010. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

  2. Large truck and bus crash facts, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2012. Selected crash statistics on passenger vehicles are also presented ...

  3. Large truck and bus crash facts, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2013. Selected crash statistics on passenger vehicles are also presented ...

  4. Large truck and bus crash facts, 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2009. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

  5. Large truck and bus crash facts, 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-01

    This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2011. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

  6. Financial Services Advertising before and after the Crash of 1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everett, Stephen E.

    1988-01-01

    Examines institutional changes in advertising before and after the stock market "crash" of 1987 as represented in the "Wall Street Journal." Finds that financial institutions increased the frequency and size of ads after the crash. (RS)

  7. Nonparametric Analyses of Log-Periodic Precursors to Financial Crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

    We apply two nonparametric methods to further test the hypothesis that log-periodicity characterizes the detrended price trajectory of large financial indices prior to financial crashes or strong corrections. The term "parametric" refers here to the use of the log-periodic power law formula to fit the data; in contrast, "nonparametric" refers to the use of general tools such as Fourier transform, and in the present case the Hilbert transform and the so-called (H, q)-analysis. The analysis using the (H, q)-derivative is applied to seven time series ending with the October 1987 crash, the October 1997 correction and the April 2000 crash of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the Standard & Poor 500 and Nasdaq indices. The Hilbert transform is applied to two detrended price time series in terms of the ln(tc-t) variable, where tc is the time of the crash. Taking all results together, we find strong evidence for a universal fundamental log-frequency f=1.02±0.05 corresponding to the scaling ratio λ=2.67±0.12. These values are in very good agreement with those obtained in earlier works with different parametric techniques. This note is extracted from a long unpublished report with 58 figures available at , which extensively describes the evidence we have accumulated on these seven time series, in particular by presenting all relevant details so that the reader can judge for himself or herself the validity and robustness of the results.

  8. Large truck and bus crash facts, 2008. 

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2008. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

  9. Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Large Truck* Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) is based on a three-year data collection project conducted by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA)...

  10. Large Retailers’ Financial Services

    OpenAIRE

    Risso, Mario

    2010-01-01

    Over the last few years, large retailers offering financial services have considerably grown in the financial services sector. Retailers are increasing the wideness and complexity of their offer of financial services. Large retail companies provide financial services to their customers following different strategic ways. The provision of financial services in the retailers offer is implemented in several different ways related to the strategies, the structures and the degree of financial know...

  11. Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...... cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student’s t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical...... part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian...

  12. A mathematical definition of the financial bubbles and crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Kota; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    2007-09-01

    We check the validity of the mathematical method of detecting financial bubbles or crashes, which is based on a data fitting with an exponential function. We show that the period of a bubble can be determined nearly uniquely independent of the precision of data. The method is widely applicable for stock market data such as the Internet bubble.

  13. Crash risk factors for interstate large trucks in North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teoh, Eric R; Carter, Daniel L; Smith, Sarah; McCartt, Anne T

    2017-09-01

    Provide an updated examination of risk factors for large truck involvements in crashes resulting in injury or death. A matched case-control study was conducted in North Carolina of large trucks operated by interstate carriers. Cases were defined as trucks involved in crashes resulting in fatal or non-fatal injury, and one control truck was matched on the basis of location, weekday, time of day, and truck type. The matched-pair odds ratio provided an estimate of the effect of various driver, vehicle, or carrier factors. Out-of-service (OOS) brake violations tripled the risk of crashing; any OOS vehicle defect increased crash risk by 362%. Higher historical crash rates (fatal, injury, or all crashes) of the carrier were associated with increased risk of crashing. Operating on a short-haul exemption increased crash risk by 383%. Antilock braking systems reduced crash risk by 65%. All of these results were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Other safety technologies also showed estimated benefits, although not statistically significant. With the exception of the finding that short-haul exemption is associated with increased crash risk, results largely bolster what is currently known about large truck crash risk and reinforce current enforcement practices. Results also suggest vehicle safety technologies can be important in lowering crash risk. This means that as safety technology continues to penetrate the fleet, whether from voluntary usage or government mandates, reductions in large truck crashes may be achieved. Practical application: Results imply that increased enforcement and use of crash avoidance technologies can improve the large truck crash problem. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Fatal crashes involving large numbers of vehicles and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying; Liang, Liming; Evans, Leonard

    2017-12-01

    Adverse weather has been recognized as a significant threat to traffic safety. However, relationships between fatal crashes involving large numbers of vehicles and weather are rarely studied according to the low occurrence of crashes involving large numbers of vehicles. By using all 1,513,792 fatal crashes in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data, 1975-2014, we successfully described these relationships. We found: (a) fatal crashes involving more than 35 vehicles are most likely to occur in snow or fog; (b) fatal crashes in rain are three times as likely to involve 10 or more vehicles as fatal crashes in good weather; (c) fatal crashes in snow [or fog] are 24 times [35 times] as likely to involve 10 or more vehicles as fatal crashes in good weather. If the example had used 20 vehicles, the risk ratios would be 6 for rain, 158 for snow, and 171 for fog. To reduce the risk of involvement in fatal crashes with large numbers of vehicles, drivers should slow down more than they currently do under adverse weather conditions. Driver deaths per fatal crash increase slowly with increasing numbers of involved vehicles when it is snowing or raining, but more steeply when clear or foggy. We conclude that in order to reduce risk of involvement in crashes involving large numbers of vehicles, drivers must reduce speed in fog, and in snow or rain, reduce speed by even more than they already do. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Topological data analysis of financial time series: Landscapes of crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidea, Marian; Katz, Yuri

    2018-02-01

    We explore the evolution of daily returns of four major US stock market indices during the technology crash of 2000, and the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Our methodology is based on topological data analysis (TDA). We use persistence homology to detect and quantify topological patterns that appear in multidimensional time series. Using a sliding window, we extract time-dependent point cloud data sets, to which we associate a topological space. We detect transient loops that appear in this space, and we measure their persistence. This is encoded in real-valued functions referred to as a 'persistence landscapes'. We quantify the temporal changes in persistence landscapes via their Lp-norms. We test this procedure on multidimensional time series generated by various non-linear and non-equilibrium models. We find that, in the vicinity of financial meltdowns, the Lp-norms exhibit strong growth prior to the primary peak, which ascends during a crash. Remarkably, the average spectral density at low frequencies of the time series of Lp-norms of the persistence landscapes demonstrates a strong rising trend for 250 trading days prior to either dotcom crash on 03/10/2000, or to the Lehman bankruptcy on 09/15/2008. Our study suggests that TDA provides a new type of econometric analysis, which complements the standard statistical measures. The method can be used to detect early warning signals of imminent market crashes. We believe that this approach can be used beyond the analysis of financial time series presented here.

  16. Emerging interdependence between stock values during financial crashes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacopo Rocchi

    Full Text Available To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the information flow across stock values to identify several different regimes. While small information flows is detected in most of the period, a dramatically different situation occurs in the proximity of global financial crises, where stock values exhibit strong and substantial interdependence for a prolonged period. This behavior is consistent with what one would generally expect from a complex system near criticality in physical systems, showing the long lasting effects of crashes on stock markets.

  17. Emerging interdependence between stock values during financial crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocchi, Jacopo; Tsui, Enoch Yan Lok; Saad, David

    2017-01-01

    To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the information flow across stock values to identify several different regimes. While small information flows is detected in most of the period, a dramatically different situation occurs in the proximity of global financial crises, where stock values exhibit strong and substantial interdependence for a prolonged period. This behavior is consistent with what one would generally expect from a complex system near criticality in physical systems, showing the long lasting effects of crashes on stock markets.

  18. Physics of Financial Markets: Can we Understand the Unpredictable Phenomenon of Flash Crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, H. Eugene

    2015-03-01

    Dangerous vulnerability is hiding in complex systems. Indeed, disasters ranging from abrupt financial ``flash crashes'' and large-scale power outages to sudden death among the elderly dramatically exemplify this fact. While we can understand the cause of most events in complex systems, sudden unexpected ``black swans'' whether in economics or in the ``physicists world'' cry out for insight. To design more resilient systems we will describe recent results seeking understanding of these black swans. In many real-world phenomena, such as brain seizures in neuroscience or sudden market crashes in finance, after an inactive period of time a significant part of the damaged network is capable of spontaneously becoming active again. The process often occurs repeatedly. To model this marked network recovery, we examine the effect of local node recoveries and stochastic contiguous spreading, and find that they can lead to the spontaneous emergence of macroscopic ``phase-flipping'' phenomena. The fraction of active nodes switches back and forth between the two network collective modes characterized by high network activity and low network activity. Furthermore, the system exhibits a strong hysteresis behavior analogous to phase transitions near a critical point [A. Majdandzic, B. Podobnik, S. V. Buldyrev, D. Y. Kenett, S. Havlin, and H. E. Stanley, ``Spontaneous Recovery in Dynamic Networks,'' Nature Physics 10, 34 (2014)]. This work was carried out in collaboration with a number of colleagues, chief among whom are A. Majdanzic, B. Podobnik, S. V. Buldyrev, D. Y. Kenett, and S. Havlin.

  19. Herd Behavior and Financial Crashes: An Interacting Particle System Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincenzo Crescimanna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We provide an approach based on a modification of the Ising model to describe the dynamics of stock markets. Our model incorporates three different factors: imitation, the impact of external news, and private information; moreover, it is characterized by coupling coefficients, static in time, but not identical for each agent. By analogy with physical models, we consider the temperature parameter of the system, assuming that it evolves with memory of the past, hence considering how former news influences realized market returns. We show that a standard Ising potential assumption is not sufficient to reproduce the stylized facts characterizing financial markets; this is because it assigns low probabilities to rare events. Hence, we study a variation of the previous setting providing, also by concrete computations, new insights and improvements.

  20. A comprehensive analysis of factors influencing the injury severity of large-truck crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaoyu; Srinivasan, Sivaramakrishnan

    2011-01-01

    Given the importance of trucking to the economic well being of a country and the safety concerns posed by the trucks, a study of large-truck crashes is critical. This paper contributes by undertaking an extensive analysis of the empirical factors affecting injury severity of large-truck crashes. Data from a recent, nationally representative sample of large-truck crashes are examined to determine the factors affecting the overall injury severity of these crashes. The explanatory factors include the characteristics of the crash, vehicle(s), and the driver(s). The injury severity was modeled using two measures. Several similarities and some differences were observed across the two models which underscore the need for improved accuracy in the assessment of injury severity of crashes. The estimated models capture the marginal effects of a variety of explanatory factors simultaneously. In particular, the models indicate the impacts of several driver behavior variables on the severity of the crashes, after controlling for a variety of other factors. For example, driver distraction (truck drivers), alcohol use (car drivers), and emotional factors (car drivers) are found to be associated with higher severity crashes. A further interesting finding is the strong statistical significance of several dummy variables that indicate missing data - these reflect how the nature of the crash itself could affect the completeness of the data. Future efforts should seek to collect such data more comprehensively so that the true effects of these aspects on the crash severity can be determined. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. General and specific statistical properties of foreign exchange markets during a financial crash

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei-Shen; Tsai, Yun-Jie; Shen, Yu-Hsien; Liaw, Sy-Sang

    2016-06-01

    We investigate minute-by-minute foreign exchange rate (FX) data of 14 currencies with different exchange-rate regimes during a financial crash, and divide these data into several stages according to their respective tendencies: depreciation stage (stage 1), fluctuating stage (stage 2), and appreciation stage (stage 3). The tail distribution of FX rate returns satisfies a power-law structure for different types of currencies. We find the absolute value of the power-law exponent is smaller in emerging markets than in developed markets, especially during the stage 1, and is greatest in pegged currencies. We also find that the correlation properties of the FX rate return series have quite disparate results among the various types of currencies. Currencies in developed markets respectively have weak persistence and anti-persistence in short and long timescales; whereas the pegged currencies and currencies in emerging markets show different degrees of anti-persistence in various timescales. Further analyses on the data in divided stages indicate that emerging markets and pegged currencies have more prominent dual fractal structures after the depreciation stage, while the developed markets do not. Hurst exponent analyses on the sign series yield similar results to that on the original return series for most currencies. The magnitude series of the returns provide some unique results during a crash. The developed market currencies have strong persistence and exhibit a weaker correlation in the depreciation and appreciation stages. In contrast, the currencies of emerging markets as well as pegged currencies fail to show such a transformation, but rather show a constant-correlation behavior in the corresponding stages of a crash. These results indicate that external shocks exert different degrees of influence during different stages of the crash in various markets.

  2. Critical market crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, D.

    2003-04-01

    This review presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. We start by discussing the limitation of standard analyses for characterizing how crashes are special. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are “outliers”: they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are “outliers”, they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the narrow confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. A first model posits that the crash hazard drives the market price. The crash hazard may sky-rocket at some times due to the collective behavior of “noise traders”, those who act on little information, even if they think they “know”. A second version inverses the logic and posits that prices drive the crash hazard. Prices may skyrocket at some times again due to the speculative or imitative behavior of investors. According the rational expectation model, this entails automatically a corresponding increase of the probability for a crash. We also review two other models including the competition between imitation and contrarian behavior and between value investors and technical analysts. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory

  3. Differences in passenger car and large truck involved crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections: an exploratory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Richards, Stephen H; Huang, Baoshan

    2014-01-01

    The influence of intersection features on safety has been examined extensively because intersections experience a relatively large proportion of motor vehicle conflicts and crashes. Although there are distinct differences between passenger cars and large trucks-size, operating characteristics, dimensions, and weight-modeling crash counts across vehicle types is rarely addressed. This paper develops and presents a multivariate regression model of crash frequencies by collision vehicle type using crash data for urban signalized intersections in Tennessee. In addition, the performance of univariate Poisson-lognormal (UVPLN), multivariate Poisson (MVP), and multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MVPLN) regression models in establishing the relationship between crashes, traffic factors, and geometric design of roadway intersections is investigated. Bayesian methods are used to estimate the unknown parameters of these models. The evaluation results suggest that the MVPLN model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in developing the relationships. Compared to the UVPLN and MVP models, the MVPLN model better identifies significant factors and predicts crash frequencies. The findings suggest that traffic volume, truck percentage, lighting condition, and intersection angle significantly affect intersection safety. Important differences in car, car-truck, and truck crash frequencies with respect to various risk factors were found to exist between models. The paper provides some new or more comprehensive observations that have not been covered in previous studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Airplane crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunner, P.

    1975-01-01

    In May, 1974, a severe airplane crash occurred near Springfield, llinois; the crew of three and a courier were killed. The plane was carrying a large container of controlled water with a slight amount of 60 Co. A survey of the crash site by Air Force detectives and the radiological assistance team from Wright--Patterson Air Force Base indicated no radioactivity. Experiences of the incident were used to develop guidelines for future emergency preparedness

  5. Using linked data to evaluate medical and financial outcomes of motor vehicle crashes in Connecticut : Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES) linked data demonstration project

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    A deterministic algorithm was developed which allowed data from Department of Transportation motor vehicle crash records, state mortality registry records, and hospital admission and emergency department records to be linked for analysis of the finan...

  6. Analysis of road traffic crash injuries - a technique producing large un-decalcified histological sections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uhrenholt, Lars; Gregersen, Markil Ebbe Gregers; Vesterby, Annie

    Introduction:The lower cervical spine facet joints are important structures in cases of chronic pain syndromes following road traffic crashes. Pathophysiological segmental kinematics may occur, particularly during rear-impact collisions, which may cause injury to these joints. Detailed anatomical...... that prepares large un-frozen un-decalcified cervical spine specimens for analysis. Materials and Methods:The cervical spine segments from C4 to C7 are removed en bloc during autopsy. The specimen is fixed throughout in 70% increasing to 99% ethanol and embedded un-decalcified in hardening methyl methacrylate......-duty microtome followed by relevant staining.Results:The described method produces fine detail histological sections that may visualise normal anatomical structures as well as discrete pathoanatomical lesions in the lower cervical spine facet joints.Discussion:The cervical spine facet joints can be analysed...

  7. Motor Carrier Crash Data -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Contains data on large trucks and buses involved in Federally reportable crashes as per Title 49 U.S.C. Part 390.5 (crashes involving a commercial motor vehicle, and...

  8. Instrument Failure, Stress, and Spatial Disorientation Leading to a Fatal Crash With a Large Aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribukait, Arne; Eiken, Ola

    2017-11-01

    An aircraft's orientation relative to the ground cannot be perceived via the sense of balance or the somatosensory system. When devoid of external visual references, the pilot must rely on instruments. A sudden unexpected instrument indication is a challenge to the pilot, who might have to question the instrument instead of responding with the controls. In this case report we analyze, from a human-factors perspective, how a limited instrument failure led to a fatal accident. During straight-ahead level flight in darkness, at 33,000 ft, the commander of a civil cargo airplane was suddenly confronted by an erroneous pitch-up indication on his primary flight display. He responded by pushing the control column forward, making a bunt maneuver with reduced/negative Gz during approximately 15 s. The pilots did not communicate rationally or cross-check instruments. Recordings of elevator and aileron positions suggest that the commander made intense efforts to correct for several extreme and erroneous roll and pitch indications. Gz displayed an increasing trend with rapid fluctuations and peaks of approximately 3 G. After 50 s the aircraft entered a turn with decreasing radius and finally hit the ground in an inverted attitude. A precipitate maneuvring response can, even if occurring in a large aircraft at high altitude, result in a seemingly inexorable course of events, ending with a crash. In the present case both pilots were probably incapacitated by acute psychological stress and spatial disorientation. Intense variations in Gz may have impaired the copilot's reading of the functioning primary flight display.Tribukait A, Eiken O. Instrument failure, stress, and spatial disorientation leading to a fatal crash with a large aircraft. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(11):1043-1048.

  9. The Reasons for UK Large Financial Institutions' Failure during the Recent Financial Crisis in 2007

    OpenAIRE

    LI, ZHAOYI

    2012-01-01

    Most UK financial institutions have failed during the recent financial crisis. Although this depression is triggered by the failure of US housing market, the business model for the UK is still different with US financial institutions. Most failed companies are not hold large amount of sub-prime loans in their asset portfolio in the UK, the most important reason is the wholesale funding strategies became the central business model for the most failed firms, therefore the retail deposits are no...

  10. The oil price crash in 2014/15: Was there a (negative) financial bubble?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantazzini, Dean

    2016-01-01

    This paper suggests that there was a negative bubble in oil prices in 2014/15, which decreased them beyond the level justified by economic fundamentals. This proposition is corroborated by two sets of bubble detection strategies: the first set consists of tests for financial bubbles, while the second set consists of the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model for negative financial bubbles. Despite the methodological differences between these detection methods, they provided the same outcome: the oil price experienced a statistically significant negative financial bubble in the last months of 2014 and at the beginning of 2015. These results also hold after several robustness checks which consider the effect of conditional heteroskedasticity, model set-ups with additional restrictions, longer data samples, tests with lower frequency data and with an alternative proxy variable to measure the fundamental value of oil. - Highlights: •There was a negative bubble in oil prices in 2014/15. •This bubble decreased oil prices beyond the level justified by economic fundamentals. •Several bubble detection methods confirm this evidence.

  11. Quantifying reflexivity in financial markets: Toward a prediction of flash crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filimonov, Vladimir; Sornette, Didier

    2012-05-01

    We introduce a measure of activity of financial markets that provides a direct access to their level of endogeneity. This measure quantifies how much of price changes is due to endogenous feedback processes, as opposed to exogenous news. For this, we calibrate the self-excited conditional Poisson Hawkes model, which combines in a natural and parsimonious way exogenous influences with self-excited dynamics, to the E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 1998 to 2010. We find that the level of endogeneity has increased significantly from 1998 to 2010, with only 70% in 1998 to less than 30% since 2007 of the price changes resulting from some revealed exogenous information. Analogous to nuclear plant safety measures concerned with avoiding “criticality,” our measure provides a direct quantification of the distance of the financial market from a critical state defined precisely as the limit of diverging trading activity in the absence of any external driving.

  12. Assessment of the fire resistance of a nuclear power plant subjected to a large commercial aircraft crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeon, Se-Jin; Jin, Byeong-Moo; Kim, Young-Jin

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A procedure to assess fire resistance of structure for aircraft crash is proposed. ► Fire scenario of containment and auxiliary building is determined for aircraft crash. ► Heat transfer and thermal stress analyses are performed to obtain section forces. ► Fire endurance time is evaluated by load–moment strength interaction diagram. - Abstract: The safety assessment of infrastructures, such as a nuclear power plant, for the crash of a large commercial aircraft has been performed worldwide after the terrorism that occurred in the U.S. on September 11, 2001. The assessment, however, has mainly focused on the techniques of impact analysis. In this study, a systematic procedure to assess the fire resistance of containment and auxiliary buildings subjected to such an aircraft crash is proposed. The intensity, duration and distribution of the fire are determined based on aircraft crash analyses and characteristics of jet fuel. A three-dimensional detailed finite element model of the containment and auxiliary buildings is established and used for heat transfer and thermal stress analyses, taking into account the material properties at an elevated temperature. Section forces can then be obtained that are based on a nonlinear stress–strain relationship. The fire resistance of the structure is assessed by comparing the fire-induced section forces with the section resistance which is evaluated using the load–moment strength interaction diagram. The study addresses the problem whereby the conventional assessment that only considers the flexural behaviour is less accurate. The assessment results support the general conclusion that the nuclear power plant structures can maintain structural integrity against external fire due to their relatively thick sections. The proposed procedure can be extensively applied to evaluate the fire endurance time of any type of structure subjected to an arbitrary fire.

  13. Flash crashes, bursts, and black swans: parallels between financial markets and healthcare systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Bruce J; Clancy, Thomas R

    2010-11-01

    As systems evolve over time, their natural tendency is to become increasingly more complex. Studies in the field of complex systems have generated new perspectives on management in social organizations such as hospitals. Much of this research appears as a natural extension of the cross-disciplinary field of systems theory. This is the 16th in a series of articles applying complex systems science to the traditional management concepts of planning, organizing, directing, coordinating, and controlling. In this article, Dr Clancy, the editor of this column, and co-author, Dr West, discuss how the collapse of global financial markets in 2008 may provide valuable insight into mechanisms of complex system behavior in healthcare. Dr West, a physicist and expert in the field of complex systems and network science, is author of a chapter in the book, On the Edge: Nursing in the Age of Complexity (Lindberg C, Nash S, Linberg C. Bordertown, NJ: Plexus Press; 2008) and his most recent book, Disrupted Networks: From Physics to Climate Change (West BJ, Scafetta N. Singapore: Disrupted Networks, World Scientific Publishing; 2010).

  14. Evaluating the experiences with an Information and Referral Center (IRC) following a large air crash disaster.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brake, H. te; Dückers, M.L.; Drogendijk, A.N.

    2017-01-01

    Study/Objective: To evaluate the use of, and experiences with a ‘one-stop-shop’ website for information and referral for bereaved people following an air crash disaster. Background: On July 17, 2014 the disaster of Flight MH17 (Malaysia Airlines) took place above Eastern Ukraine. None of the 298

  15. The real economic effects of cross-delisting from the United States: Evidence on post-operating performance, financial constraints and stock crash risk =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Sonia Maria da Silva Faria Nogueira da

    In this study we examine the economic consequences for firms that cross-delisted from a U.S. stock exchange. Using a sample of foreign firms that cross-delisted from U.S. exchange markets from 2000 to 2012, we investigate the long-term performance, the level of financial constraints, and the likelihood of stock price crashes after the cross-delisting event. We document several new findings as follows: i) cross-delisted firms have less growth opportunities, in the long-run, than their cross-listed peers; ii) after the adoption of Rule 12h-6 of 2007, cross-delisted firms exhibit a significant decline in operating performance; iii) cross-delisted firms underperform their cross-listed peers as they experience negative average abnormal returns, especially in the post-cross-delisting period; iv) cross-delisted firms face higher financial constraints post-delisting than their cross-listed counterparts, and also tend to save more cash out of cash flows; v) the increase in financial constraints post-cross-delisting seems to be primarily driven by informational frictions that constrain access to external financing, which are stronger for firms from countries with weaker investor protection and less developed capital markets; vi) cross-delisted firms experience a significant increase in crash risk associated with earnings management in the post-delisting period relative to a control sample of cross-listed firms, and this effect is more pronounced for delisted firms from countries with weaker investor protection and poor quality of their information environment; vii) cross-delisted firms that engage in earnings management to inflate reported earnings prior to a seasoned equity offering are more likely to a subsequent stock price crash.

  16. 76 FR 6756 - Recommendations Regarding Modifications to the Concentration Limit on Large Financial Companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-08

    ... address the perception that large financial institutions are ``too big to fail.'' Section 622 of the Act... financial system, the efficiency and competitiveness of United States financial firms and financial markets... their officers and directors to manage, for the financial markets to understand and discipline, and for...

  17. Financial analysis of large versus small nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Louh, R.F.; Becker, M.; Wicks, F.

    1986-01-01

    There have been no new orders for nuclear plants and many nuclear plants under construction have been cancelled in recent years in the United States. Financing problems have been a major factor in this slow down of new nuclear plant activity. Meanwhile, the nuclear plants that have been completed have been operating cost effectively and yielding fossil fuel conservation and air quality benefits. Smaller plants have been designed in the past for the purpose of penetrating markets in developing countries and countries with relatively small utility systems. This paper examines the question of whether these smaller plants would be a viable option to large nuclear plants in the United States. Although the smaller plants are estimated to have a somewhat higher capital cost on a $/k W basis, they have the potential advantage of a lower total financial committment. The computational tools required for this evaluation are optimal generation planning and financial simulation programs and the corresponding generation and financial data bases for a variety of systems

  18. Impact of Helmet Use on Injury and Financial Burden of Motorcycle and Moped Crashes in Hawai‘i: Analysis of a Linked Statewide Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castel, Nikki A; Wong, Linda L; Steinemann, Susan

    2016-01-01

    Helmet use reduces injury severity, disability, hospital length of stay, and hospital charges in motorcycle riders. The public absorbs billions of dollars annually in hospital charges for unhelmeted, uninsured motorcycle riders. We sought to quantify, on a statewide level, the healthcare burden of unhelmeted motorcycle and moped riders. We examined 1,965 emergency medical service (EMS) reports from motorcycle and moped crashes in Hawai‘i between 2007–2009. EMS records were linked to hospital medical records to assess associations between vehicle type, helmet use, medical charges, diagnoses, and final disposition. Unhelmeted riders of either type of vehicle suffered more head injuries, especially skull fractures (adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 4.48, P motorcycle and moped riders, with a significant (P = .006) difference between helmeted ($27,176) and unhelmeted ($40,217) motorcycle riders. Unhelmeted riders were twice as likely to self-pay (19.3%, versus 9.8% of helmeted riders), and more likely to have Medicaid or a similar income-qualifying insurance plan (13.5% versus 5.0%, respectively). Protective associations with helmet use are stronger among motorcyclists than moped riders, suggesting the protective effect is augmented in higher speed crashes. The public financial burden is higher from unhelmeted riders who sustain more severe injuries and are less likely to be insured. PMID:27980882

  19. Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donier, Jonathan; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the result of endogenous feedback loops. Although plausible, a clear-cut empirical evidence for such a scenario is still lacking. Here we show how crashes are conditioned by the market liquidity, for which we propose a new measure inspired by recent theories of market impact and based on readily available, public information. Our results open the possibility of a dynamical evaluation of liquidity risk and early warning signs of market instabilities, and could lead to a quantitative description of the mechanisms leading to market crashes. PMID:26448333

  20. Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donier, Jonathan; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the result of endogenous feedback loops. Although plausible, a clear-cut empirical evidence for such a scenario is still lacking. Here we show how crashes are conditioned by the market liquidity, for which we propose a new measure inspired by recent theories of market impact and based on readily available, public information. Our results open the possibility of a dynamical evaluation of liquidity risk and early warning signs of market instabilities, and could lead to a quantitative description of the mechanisms leading to market crashes.

  1. Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Donier

    Full Text Available Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the result of endogenous feedback loops. Although plausible, a clear-cut empirical evidence for such a scenario is still lacking. Here we show how crashes are conditioned by the market liquidity, for which we propose a new measure inspired by recent theories of market impact and based on readily available, public information. Our results open the possibility of a dynamical evaluation of liquidity risk and early warning signs of market instabilities, and could lead to a quantitative description of the mechanisms leading to market crashes.

  2. Modelling and mitigation of Flash Crashes

    OpenAIRE

    Fry, John; Serbera, Jean-Philippe

    2017-01-01

    The algorithmic trading revolution has had a dramatic effect upon markets. Trading has become faster, and in some ways more efficient, though potentially at the cost higher volatility and increased uncertainty. Stories of predatory trading and flash crashes constitute a new financial reality. Worryingly, highly capitalised stocks may be particularly vulnerable to flash crashes. Amid fears of high-risk technology failures in the global financial system we develop a model for flash crashes....

  3. Financial management of a large multisite randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffet, Alice J; Flaxman, Linda; Tom, MeeLee; Hughes, Susan E; Longbottom, Mary E; Howard, Virginia J; Marler, John R; Brott, Thomas G

    2014-08-01

    The Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial (CREST) received five years' funding ($21 112 866) from the National Institutes of Health to compare carotid stenting to surgery for stroke prevention in 2500 randomized participants at 40 sites. Herein we evaluate the change in the CREST budget from a fixed to variable-cost model and recommend strategies for the financial management of large-scale clinical trials. Projections of the original grant's fixed-cost model were compared to the actual costs of the revised variable-cost model. The original grant's fixed-cost budget included salaries, fringe benefits, and other direct and indirect costs. For the variable-cost model, the costs were actual payments to the clinical sites and core centers based upon actual trial enrollment. We compared annual direct and indirect costs and per-patient cost for both the fixed and variable models. Differences between clinical site and core center expenditures were also calculated. Using a variable-cost budget for clinical sites, funding was extended by no-cost extension from five to eight years. Randomizing sites tripled from 34 to 109. Of the 2500 targeted sample size, 138 (5·5%) were randomized during the first five years and 1387 (55·5%) during the no-cost extension. The actual per-patient costs of the variable model were 9% ($13 845) of the projected per-patient costs ($152 992) of the fixed model. Performance-based budgets conserve funding, promote compliance, and allow for additional sites at modest additional cost. Costs of large-scale clinical trials can thus be reduced through effective management without compromising scientific integrity. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2014 World Stroke Organization.

  4. Perbandingan Stock Market Crash 1987 : Dan Stock Market Crash 1997

    OpenAIRE

    Indridewi Atmadjaja, Yovita Vivianty

    1999-01-01

    Stock market crash refers to the condition, which is marked with the large dropping of stock Market price index. Historically, stock market crash has happened three times, namely in 1929, 1987 and 1997. This paper will discuss the causes of 1987's and 1997's stock market Crash and the similarities and the differences between 1987's and 1997's stock market crash. The structure of the paper is as follows. The paper starts with the introduction. The second Section briefly explains the causes of ...

  5. Pedestrian Crashes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Town of Chapel Hill, North Carolina — This data set maps the locations of crashes involving pedestrians in the Chapel Hill Region of North Carolina.The data comes from police-reported bicycle-motor...

  6. Bicycle Crashes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Town of Chapel Hill, North Carolina — This data set maps the locations of crashes involving bicyclists in the Chapel Hill Region of North Carolina.The data comes from police-reported bicycle-motor...

  7. The Effect of Managerial Ability on Future Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soo Yeon Park

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of managerial ability on subsequent stock price crash risk using listed firm data in Korea. Compared to some financially advanced countries, the influence of managers is particularly more powerful in Korea, as ownership and management are not effectively separate in most Korean firms. In addition, we considered the effect of large business groups called Chaebol, which is family-run conglomerates with unique corporate governance system that hugely affect the Korean economy. It is important to recognize determinants of the stock price crash risk which would result in doubt on going concern to enhance the company’s sustainable management. Hence, this study focuses on the managerial ability as one of the main factors of the stock price crash risk. We use the measures of firm-specific stock price crash risk based on Hutton et al. (2009. Managerial ability is estimated through a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA and tobit regressions following Demerjian et al. (2012. From the empirical tests, there is a negative association between managerial ability and stock price crash risk. This suggests that managers with a higher ability release more voluntary disclosure to signal their ability, ultimately lowering the subsequent stock price crash risk. We also find that firms in large business groups, Chaebol, weaken the negative association between managerial ability and subsequent stock price crash risk.

  8. Large scale waste combustion projects. A study of financial structures and sensitivities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandler, A.

    1993-01-01

    The principal objective of the study was to determine the key contractual and financial aspects of large scale energy-from-waste projects, and to provide the necessary background information on financing to appreciate the approach lenders take when they consider financing waste combustion projects. An integral part of the study has been the preparation of a detailed financial model, incorporating all major financing parameters, to assess the economic and financial viability of typical waste combustion projects. (author)

  9. Characterization of large price variations in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Anders

    2003-06-01

    Statistics of drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum) plays an important role in risk assessment of investment strategies. As they incorporate higher (> two) order correlations, they offer a better measure of real market risks than the variance or other cumulants of daily (or some other fixed time scale) of returns. Previous results have shown that the vast majority of drawdowns occurring on the major financial markets have a distribution which is well represented by a stretched exponential, while the largest drawdowns are occurring with a significantly larger rate than predicted by the bulk of the distribution and should thus be characterized as outliers (Eur. Phys. J. B 1 (1998) 141; J. Risk 2001). In the present analysis, the definition of drawdowns is generalized to coarse-grained drawdowns or so-called ε-drawdowns and a link between such ε- outliers and preceding log-periodic power law bubbles previously identified (Quantitative Finance 1 (2001) 452) is established.

  10. Financial costs of large carnivore translocations--accounting for conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian J Weise

    Full Text Available Human-carnivore conflict continues to present a major conservation challenge around the world. Translocation of large carnivores is widely implemented but remains strongly debated, in part because of a lack of cost transparency. We report detailed translocation costs for three large carnivore species in Namibia and across different translocation scenarios. We consider the effect of various parameters and factors on costs and translocation success. Total translocation cost for 30 individuals in 22 events was $80,681 (US Dollars. Median translocation cost per individual was $2,393, and $2,669 per event. Median cost per cheetah was $2,760 (n = 23, and $2,108 per leopard (n = 6. One hyaena was translocated at a cost of $1,672. Tracking technology was the single biggest cost element (56%, followed by captive holding and feeding. Soft releases, prolonged captivity and orphaned individuals also increased case-specific costs. A substantial proportion (65.4% of the total translocation cost was successfully recovered from public interest groups. Less than half the translocations were confirmed successes (44.4%, 3 unknown with a strong species bias. Four leopards (66.7% were successfully translocated but only eight of the 20 cheetahs (40.0% with known outcome met these strict criteria. None of the five habituated cheetahs was translocated successfully, nor was the hyaena. We introduce the concept of Individual Conservation Cost (ICC and define it as the cost of one successfully translocated individual adjusted by costs of unsuccessful events of the same species. The median ICC for cheetah was $6,898 and $3,140 for leopard. Translocations are costly, but we demonstrate that they are not inherently more expensive than other strategies currently employed in non-lethal carnivore conflict management. We conclude that translocation should be one available option for conserving large carnivores, but needs to be critically evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

  11. Financial costs of large carnivore translocations--accounting for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weise, Florian J; Stratford, Ken J; van Vuuren, Rudolf J

    2014-01-01

    Human-carnivore conflict continues to present a major conservation challenge around the world. Translocation of large carnivores is widely implemented but remains strongly debated, in part because of a lack of cost transparency. We report detailed translocation costs for three large carnivore species in Namibia and across different translocation scenarios. We consider the effect of various parameters and factors on costs and translocation success. Total translocation cost for 30 individuals in 22 events was $80,681 (US Dollars). Median translocation cost per individual was $2,393, and $2,669 per event. Median cost per cheetah was $2,760 (n = 23), and $2,108 per leopard (n = 6). One hyaena was translocated at a cost of $1,672. Tracking technology was the single biggest cost element (56%), followed by captive holding and feeding. Soft releases, prolonged captivity and orphaned individuals also increased case-specific costs. A substantial proportion (65.4%) of the total translocation cost was successfully recovered from public interest groups. Less than half the translocations were confirmed successes (44.4%, 3 unknown) with a strong species bias. Four leopards (66.7%) were successfully translocated but only eight of the 20 cheetahs (40.0%) with known outcome met these strict criteria. None of the five habituated cheetahs was translocated successfully, nor was the hyaena. We introduce the concept of Individual Conservation Cost (ICC) and define it as the cost of one successfully translocated individual adjusted by costs of unsuccessful events of the same species. The median ICC for cheetah was $6,898 and $3,140 for leopard. Translocations are costly, but we demonstrate that they are not inherently more expensive than other strategies currently employed in non-lethal carnivore conflict management. We conclude that translocation should be one available option for conserving large carnivores, but needs to be critically evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

  12. Impact of pavement conditions on crash severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yingfeng; Liu, Chunxiao; Ding, Liang

    2013-10-01

    Pavement condition has been known as a key factor related to ride quality, but it is less clear how exactly pavement conditions are related to traffic crashes. The researchers used Geographic Information System (GIS) to link Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Crash Record Information System (CRIS) data and Pavement Management Information System (PMIS) data, which provided an opportunity to examine the impact of pavement conditions on traffic crashes in depth. The study analyzed the correlation between several key pavement condition ratings or scores and crash severity based on a large number of crashes in Texas between 2008 and 2009. The results in general suggested that poor pavement condition scores and ratings were associated with proportionally more severe crashes, but very poor pavement conditions were actually associated with less severe crashes. Very good pavement conditions might induce speeding behaviors and therefore could have caused more severe crashes, especially on non-freeway arterials and during favorable driving conditions. In addition, the results showed that the effects of pavement conditions on crash severity were more evident for passenger vehicles than for commercial vehicles. These results provide insights on how pavement conditions may have contributed to crashes, which may be valuable for safety improvement during pavement design and maintenance. Readers should notice that, although the study found statistically significant effects of pavement variables on crash severity, the effects were rather minor in reality as suggested by frequency analyses. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk factors associated with high potential for serious crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Crashes are random events and low traffic volumes therefore dont always make crash hot-spot : identification possible. This project has used extensive data collection and analysis for a large sample : of Oregons low volume roads to develop a ri...

  14. Bubbles, Post-Crash Dynamics, and the Housing Market

    OpenAIRE

    Crocker H. Liu; Adam Nowak; Stuart Rosenthal

    2014-01-01

    This paper documents and explains previously unrecognized post-crash dynamics following the collapse of a housing bubble. A simple model predicts that speculative developers ensure stable pre-crash relative prices between small and large homes while their post-crash exit allows small-home relative values to fall. Evidence from Phoenix supports the model. Although home prices doubled 2004-2006, relative prices of small-to-large homes remained nearly constant but then plummeted post-crash. As s...

  15. The financial attractiveness assessment of large waste management projects registered as clean development mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bufoni, André Luiz; Oliveira, Luciano Basto; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Projects are not financially attractive without registration as CDMs. • WM benchmarks and indicators are converging and reducing in variance. • A sensitivity analysis reveal that revenue has more of an effect on the financial results. • Results indicate that an extensive database would reduce WM project risk and capital costs. • Disclosure standards would make information more comparable worldwide. - Abstract: This study illustrates the financial analyses for demonstration and assessment of additionality presented in the project design (PDD) and enclosed documents of the 431 large Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) classified as the ‘waste handling and disposal sector’ (13) over the past ten years (2004–2014). The expected certified emissions reductions (CER) of these projects total 63.54 million metric tons of CO 2 eq, where eight countries account for 311 projects and 43.36 million metric tons. All of the projects declare themselves ‘not financially attractive’ without CER with an estimated sum of negative results of approximately a half billion US$. The results indicate that WM benchmarks and indicators are converging and reducing in variance, and the sensitivity analysis reveals that revenues have a greater effect on the financial results. This work concludes that an extensive financial database with simple standards for disclosure would greatly diminish statement problems and make information more comparable, reducing the risk and capital costs of WM projects

  16. The financial attractiveness assessment of large waste management projects registered as clean development mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bufoni, André Luiz, E-mail: bufoni@facc.ufrj.br [Energy Planning Program, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro PPE/COPPE/UFRJ (Brazil); Oliveira, Luciano Basto [International Virtual Institute of Global Changes IVIG/COPPE/UFRJ (Brazil); Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli [Energy Planning Program, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro PPE/COPPE/UFRJ (Brazil)

    2015-09-15

    Highlights: • Projects are not financially attractive without registration as CDMs. • WM benchmarks and indicators are converging and reducing in variance. • A sensitivity analysis reveal that revenue has more of an effect on the financial results. • Results indicate that an extensive database would reduce WM project risk and capital costs. • Disclosure standards would make information more comparable worldwide. - Abstract: This study illustrates the financial analyses for demonstration and assessment of additionality presented in the project design (PDD) and enclosed documents of the 431 large Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) classified as the ‘waste handling and disposal sector’ (13) over the past ten years (2004–2014). The expected certified emissions reductions (CER) of these projects total 63.54 million metric tons of CO{sub 2}eq, where eight countries account for 311 projects and 43.36 million metric tons. All of the projects declare themselves ‘not financially attractive’ without CER with an estimated sum of negative results of approximately a half billion US$. The results indicate that WM benchmarks and indicators are converging and reducing in variance, and the sensitivity analysis reveals that revenues have a greater effect on the financial results. This work concludes that an extensive financial database with simple standards for disclosure would greatly diminish statement problems and make information more comparable, reducing the risk and capital costs of WM projects.

  17. The Large Hadron Collider project: organizational and financial matters (of physics at the terascale)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelen, J.

    2012-01-01

    n this paper, I present a view of organizational and financial matters relevant for the successful construction and operation of the experimental set-ups at the Large Hadron Collider of CERN, the European Laboratory for Particle Physics in Geneva. Construction of these experiments was particularly

  18. The Role of the Chief Financial Officer in Large Public Universities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, William A.

    1985-01-01

    The characteristics and qualifications of chief financial officers (CFOs) of large public universities, the internal organizational relationships of CFOs, and their responsibilities were studied in 1983. Findings of a similar 1973 study are also considered. A total of 135 usable questionnaire responses provided information on age; sex; length of…

  19. CRASH - Community Road Accident System Homepage : feasibility study on a European Road Safety Information System, financially supported by the European Commission.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, M. Poppe, F. Blokpoel, A. & Kars, V.

    2000-01-01

    This report is the result of a feasibility study, financially supported by the European Commission. The study investigated the possibilities for the development and maintenance of a European Road Safety Information System with relevant and internationally comparable information. Recommendations on

  20. The value case methodology : A methodology aligning financial and non-financial values in large multi-stakeholder innovation projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dittrich, K.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is increasingly confronted with the effects of the all-encompassing attention for financial results. This strong emphasis on financials makes it very difficult, if not impossible, for both enterprise and government to take other factors into account when making investment decisions. As a

  1. Lessons learned: Infrastructure development and financial management for large, publicly funded, international trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Gregg S; Carey, Cate; Grarup, Jesper; Hudson, Fleur; Sachi, Karen; Vjecha, Michael J; Gordin, Fred

    2016-04-01

    Randomized clinical trials are widely recognized as essential to address worldwide clinical and public health research questions. However, their size and duration can overwhelm available public and private resources. To remain competitive in international research settings, advocates and practitioners of clinical trials must implement practices that reduce their cost. We identify approaches and practices for large, publicly funded, international trials that reduce cost without compromising data integrity and recommend an approach to cost reporting that permits comparison of clinical trials. We describe the organizational and financial characteristics of The International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials, an infectious disease research network that conducts multiple, large, long-term, international trials, and examine challenges associated with simple and streamlined governance and an infrastructure and financial management model that is based on performance, transparency, and accountability. It is possible to reduce costs of participants' follow-up and not compromise clinical trial quality or integrity. The International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials network has successfully completed three large HIV trials using cost-efficient practices that have not adversely affected investigator enthusiasm, accrual rates, loss-to-follow-up, adherence to the protocol, and completion of data collection. This experience is relevant to the conduct of large, publicly funded trials in other disease areas, particularly trials dependent on international collaborations. New approaches, or creative adaption of traditional clinical trial infrastructure and financial management tools, can render large, international clinical trials more cost-efficient by emphasizing structural simplicity, minimal up-front costs, payments for performance, and uniform algorithms and fees-for-service, irrespective of location. However, challenges remain. They

  2. [The economic-financial sustainability of the Family Health Strategy in large municipalities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portela, Gustavo Zoio; Ribeiro, José Mendes

    2011-03-01

    The universalization of basic care and commitment budget of the Ministry of Health with the Family Health Strategy (ESF) through new systematic financing incentives have been highlighted in the Brazilian health policy scenario. One of the great problems observed is the expansion of the strategy for large urban centres. This paper studies the economic-financial sustainability of ESF in Brazilian municipalities of more than 100 thousand inhabitants according to some selected indicators, considering the geographical region to which they belong, their population size and participation in Project for the Expansion and Consolidation Family Health (Proesf). Municipalities belonging to the Southeast region, more developed of the country, have on average better economic-financial performance, but lower average values of coverage of ESF. Municipalities from the North and Northeast, with the lowest average for economic-financial sustainability indicators, were the ones that made more effort to developments in the period. Thus, we observed the dynamics between bigger fiscal capacity and budgetary commitment with the Health Sector for biggest municipalities and in more economically developed regions, and greater vulnerability and dependence of federative transferences for municipalities with less people, in less developed areas.

  3. AP statistics crash course

    CERN Document Server

    D'Alessio, Michael

    2012-01-01

    AP Statistics Crash Course - Gets You a Higher Advanced Placement Score in Less Time Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, the last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject. AP Statistics Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP Statistics course description outline and actual Advanced Placement test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exam, so you can make the most of your valuable study time. Our easy-to-read format covers: exploring da

  4. Distracted Driving Raises Crash Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this issue Health Capsule Distracted Driving Raises Crash Risk En español Send us your comments Video technology ... distracted driving, especially among new drivers, raises the risk for car crashes and near crashes. The study ...

  5. Valuing physically and financially-induced flexibility in large-scale water resources systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmant, Amaury; Pina, Jasson; Côté, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    In a world characterized by rapid changes in terms of water demands and supplies, there is a growing and persistent need for institutional reforms that promote cross-sectoral, adaptive management processes and policies. Yet, in many regions throughout the world, the continued expansion of supply-side infrastructure is still perceived as the way to go despite the rising financial, social and environmental costs. This trend is further compounded by the risks posed by climate change; reservoir storage, for example, is still perceived as a key element of climate change adaptation strategies in many countries. There is a growing concern that such strategies may result in a rigidity trap whereby the physical and institutional infrastructure become inflexible and unable to adapt to changes because they are mutually reinforcing each other. However, several authors have recently advocated for adaptive, flexible, management techniques involving a more diversified portfolio of measures whose management is regularly updated as new information about supplies and demands becomes available. Despite being conceptually attractive, such a management approach presents several challenges to policy makers. One of them is the sheer amount of information that must be processed each time a management decision must be taken. To address this issue, we propose an optimization framework that can be used to determine the optimal management of a large portfolio of physical and financial assets using various hydro-climatic information. This optimization framework is illustrated with the management of a power system in Quebec involving various power stations, reservoirs, power and energy contracts as well as hydrologic and climatic data. The results can be used to assess the economic value of the flexibility induced by either the physical assets (power stations and reservoirs) or by the financial ones (contracts), an information we believe is important to highlight the benefits of adaptive

  6. BREEDER: a microcomputer program for financial analysis of a large-scale prototype breeder reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giese, R.F.

    1984-04-01

    This report describes a microcomputer-based, single-project financial analysis program: BREEDER. BREEDER is a user-friendly model designed to facilitate frequent and rapid analyses of the financial implications associated with alternative design and financing strategies for electric generating plants and large-scale prototype breeder (LSPB) reactors in particular. The model has proved to be a useful tool in establishing cost goals for LSPB reactors. The program is available on floppy disks for use on an IBM personal computer (or IBM look-a-like) running under PC-DOS or a Kaypro II transportable computer running under CP/M (and many other CP/M machines). The report documents version 1.5 of BREEDER and contains a user's guide. The report also includes a general overview of BREEDER, a summary of hardware requirements, a definition of all required program inputs, a description of all algorithms used in performing the construction-period and operation-period analyses, and a summary of all available reports. The appendixes contain a complete source-code listing, a cross-reference table, a sample interactive session, several sample runs, and additional documentation of the net-equity program option

  7. Improving financial performance by modeling and analysis of radiology procedure scheduling at a large community hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Lingbo; Li, Jingshan; Gisler, Paula

    2011-06-01

    Radiology tests, such as MRI, CT-scan, X-ray and ultrasound, are cost intensive and insurance pre-approvals are necessary to get reimbursement. In some cases, tests may be denied for payments by insurance companies due to lack of pre-approvals, inaccurate or missing necessary information. This can lead to substantial revenue losses for the hospital. In this paper, we present a simulation study of a centralized scheduling process for outpatient radiology tests at a large community hospital (Central Baptist Hospital in Lexington, Kentucky). Based on analysis of the central scheduling process, a simulation model of information flow in the process has been developed. Using such a model, the root causes of financial losses associated with errors and omissions in this process were identified and analyzed, and their impacts were quantified. In addition, "what-if" analysis was conducted to identify potential process improvement strategies in the form of recommendations to the hospital leadership. Such a model provides a quantitative tool for continuous improvement and process control in radiology outpatient test scheduling process to reduce financial losses associated with process error. This method of analysis is also applicable to other departments in the hospital.

  8. Illiquidity Contagion and Liquidity Crashes

    OpenAIRE

    Giovanni Cespa; Thierry Foucault

    2014-01-01

    Liquidity providers often learn information about an asset from prices of other assets. We show that this generates a self-reinforcing positive relationship between price informativeness and liquidity. This relationship causes liquidity spillovers and is a source of fragility: a small drop in the liquidity of one asset can, through a feedback loop, result in a very large drop in market liquidity and price informativeness (a liquidity crash). This feedback loop provides a new explanation for c...

  9. Road crash costs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2010-01-01

    Road crashes result in all kinds of social costs, such as medical costs, production loss, human losses, property damage, settlement costs and costs due to congestion. Studies into road crash costs and their trends are carried out quite regularly. In 2009, the costs amounted to € 12.5 billion, or

  10. Multinational Corporations and Stock Price Crash Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony May

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A nascent literature in finance and accounting on tail risk in individual stock returns concludes that bad news hoarding by corporate managers engenders sudden, extreme crashes in a firm’s stock price when the bad news is eventually made public. This literature finds that firm-specific crash risk is higher among firms with more severe asymmetric information and agency problems. A hitherto disjointed literature spanning the fields of international business, finance, and accounting suggests that geographic dispersion in a firm’s operations, and especially dispersion across different countries, gives rise to organizational complexities and greater costs of monitoring that can exacerbate asymmetric information and agency problems. Motivated by the confluence of arguments and findings from these two strands of literature, this paper examines whether stock price crash risk is higher among multinational firms than domestic firms. Using a large sample of U.S. headquartered firms during 1987-2011, we find robust evidence that multinational firms are significantly more likely to crash than domestic firms. Moreover, we show that the difference in crash risk between multinational and domestic firms is most acute among firms with weaker corporate governance mechanisms, including weaker shareholder rights, less independent boards, and less stable institutional ownership. Our analysis indicates that stronger monitoring from each of these three governance mechanisms significantly attenuates the positive relation between crash risk and multinationality. Our findings are robust to the use of alternative measures of crash risk and to controlling for known determinants of crash risk identified in prior studies. Our study offers new insights that should hold value for scholars and market participants interested in understanding the implications of heighted agency problems that multinational firms are likely to encounter and scholars and market participants

  11. Using financial derivatives to hedge against currency risk : British large and medium-sized firms

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, My

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, as a growing number of firms strive to conduct their business at international market place, currency risk has increasingly raised concern among financial mangers due to its substantial impact on companies’ financial results. Financial derivative instruments (Forward, Futures, Options, Swaps) are utilized as efficient hedging mechanisms against such an exchange rate exposure. The main objective of this study is to examine whether derivatives play a primary role in mitigating an adve...

  12. Allegheny County Crash Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Contains locations and information about every crash incident reported to the police in Allegheny County from 2004 to 2016. Fields include injury severity,...

  13. Allegheny County Crash Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Contains locations and information about every crash incident reported to the police in Allegheny County from 2004 to 2017. Fields include injury severity,...

  14. Financial Management of a Large Multi-site Randomized Clinical Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffet, Alice J.; Flaxman, Linda; Tom, MeeLee; Hughes, Susan E.; Longbottom, Mary E.; Howard, Virginia J.; Marler, John R.; Brott, Thomas G.

    2014-01-01

    Background The Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial (CREST) received five years’ funding ($21,112,866) from the National Institutes of Health to compare carotid stenting to surgery for stroke prevention in 2,500 randomized participants at 40 sites. Aims Herein we evaluate the change in the CREST budget from a fixed to variable-cost model and recommend strategies for the financial management of large-scale clinical trials. Methods Projections of the original grant’s fixed-cost model were compared to the actual costs of the revised variable-cost model. The original grant’s fixed-cost budget included salaries, fringe benefits, and other direct and indirect costs. For the variable-cost model, the costs were actual payments to the clinical sites and core centers based upon actual trial enrollment. We compared annual direct and indirect costs and per-patient cost for both the fixed and variable models. Differences between clinical site and core center expenditures were also calculated. Results Using a variable-cost budget for clinical sites, funding was extended by no-cost extension from five to eight years. Randomizing sites tripled from 34 to 109. Of the 2,500 targeted sample size, 138 (5.5%) were randomized during the first five years and 1,387 (55.5%) during the no-cost extension. The actual per-patient costs of the variable model were 9% ($13,845) of the projected per-patient costs ($152,992) of the fixed model. Conclusions Performance-based budgets conserve funding, promote compliance, and allow for additional sites at modest additional cost. Costs of large-scale clinical trials can thus be reduced through effective management without compromising scientific integrity. PMID:24661748

  15. Financial management of large, multi-center trials in a challenging funding milieu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovegreen, Olivia; Riggs, Danielle; Staten, Myrlene A; Sheehan, Patricia; Pittas, Anastassios G

    2018-05-03

    Randomized clinical trials that have public health implications but no or low potential for commercial gain are predominantly funded by governmental (e.g., National Institutes of Health (NIH)) and not-for-profit organizations. Our objective was to develop an alternative clinical trial site funding model for judicious allocation of declining public research funds. In the Vitamin D and Type 2 Diabetes (D2d) study, an NIH-supported, large clinical trial testing the effect of vitamin D supplementation on incident diabetes in 2423 participants at high risk for diabetes, a hybrid financial management model for supporting collaborating clinical sites was developed and applied. The funding model employed two reimbursement components: Core (for study start-up and partial efforts throughout the study, ~40% of the total site budget), invoiced by sites, and Performance-Based Payments (for successful enrollment of participants and completion of follow-up visits, ~60% of the total site budget), automatically issued to the sites by the Coordinating Center based on actual recruitment and visits conducted. Underperforming sites transitioned to Performance-Based Payments only. Recruitment occurred from October 2013 through December 2016, requiring one additional year than the 2-year projection. Median enrollment at each site was 88 participants (range 29-318; 20 to 205% of the site target). At the end of year 1, study-wide recruitment was at 12% of the target (vs. 50% projected) and 12% of the total grant award was invested. The model constantly evaluated sites' needs and re-allocated resources to meet the study enrollment goal. If D2d had issued cost reimbursement subaward agreements and sites invoiced for their entire budget, 83% of the award would have been spent for all study activities over the first 4 years of the trial compared to 65% of the award spent (US$26M) under the hybrid model used by D2d. It is feasible to foster a hybrid financial management approach to steward

  16. Estimating likelihood of future crashes for crash-prone drivers

    OpenAIRE

    Subasish Das; Xiaoduan Sun; Fan Wang; Charles Leboeuf

    2015-01-01

    At-fault crash-prone drivers are usually considered as the high risk group for possible future incidents or crashes. In Louisiana, 34% of crashes are repeatedly committed by the at-fault crash-prone drivers who represent only 5% of the total licensed drivers in the state. This research has conducted an exploratory data analysis based on the driver faultiness and proneness. The objective of this study is to develop a crash prediction model to estimate the likelihood of future crashes for the a...

  17. Barriers to innovation within large financial services firms : An in-depth study into disruptive and radical innovation projects at a bank

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Das, P.A.C.; Verburg, R.M.; Verbraeck, A.; Bonebakker, Lodewijk

    2017-01-01

    Purpose - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the financial industry is in need of innovation to increase stability and improve quality of services. The purpose of this paper is to explore internal barriers that influence the effectiveness of projects within large financial services firms focussing on

  18. Crash sequence based risk matrix for motorcycle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Kun-Feng; Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Thor, Craig P; Chen, Sheng-Yin

    2018-04-05

    Considerable research has been conducted related to motorcycle and other powered-two-wheeler (PTW) crashes; however, it always has been controversial among practitioners concerning with types of crashes should be first targeted and how to prioritize resources for the implementation of mitigating actions. Therefore, there is a need to identify types of motorcycle crashes that constitute the greatest safety risk to riders - most frequent and most severe crashes. This pilot study seeks exhibit the efficacy of a new approach for prioritizing PTW crash causation sequences as they relate to injury severity to better inform the application of mitigating countermeasures. To accomplish this, the present study constructed a crash sequence-based risk matrix to identify most frequent and most severe motorcycle crashes in an attempt to better connect causes and countermeasures of PTW crashes. Although the frequency of each crash sequence can be computed from crash data, a crash severity model is needed to compare the levels of crash severity among different crash sequences, while controlling for other factors that also have effects on crash severity such drivers' age, use of helmet, etc. The construction of risk matrix based on crash sequences involve two tasks: formulation of crash sequence and the estimation of a mixed-effects (ME) model to adjust the levels of severities for each crash sequence to account for other crash contributing factors that would have an effect on the maximum level of crash severity in a crash. Three data elements from the National Automotive Sampling System - General Estimating System (NASS-GES) data were utilized to form a crash sequence: critical event, crash types, and sequence of events. A mixed-effects model was constructed to model the severity levels for each crash sequence while accounting for the effects of those crash contributing factors on crash severity. A total of 8039 crashes involving 8208 motorcycles occurred during 2011 and 2013 were

  19. Extensive unusual lesions on a large number of immersed human victims found to be from cookiecutter sharks (Isistius spp.): an examination of the Yemenia plane crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribéreau-Gayon, Agathe; Rando, Carolyn; Schuliar, Yves; Chapenoire, Stéphane; Crema, Enrico R; Claes, Julien; Seret, Bernard; Maleret, Vincent; Morgan, Ruth M

    2017-03-01

    Accurate determination of the origin and timing of trauma is key in medicolegal investigations when the cause and manner of death are unknown. However, distinction between criminal and accidental perimortem trauma and postmortem modifications can be challenging when facing unidentified trauma. Postmortem examination of the immersed victims of the Yemenia airplane crash (Comoros, 2009) demonstrated the challenges in diagnosing extensive unusual circular lesions found on the corpses. The objective of this study was to identify the origin and timing of occurrence (peri- or postmortem) of the lesions.A retrospective multidisciplinary study using autopsy reports (n = 113) and postmortem digital photos (n = 3 579) was conducted. Of the 113 victims recovered from the crash, 62 (54.9 %) presented unusual lesions (n = 560) with a median number of 7 (IQR 3 ∼ 13) and a maximum of 27 per corpse. The majority of lesions were elliptic (58 %) and had an area smaller than 10 cm 2 (82.1 %). Some lesions (6.8 %) also showed clear tooth notches on their edges. These findings identified most of the lesions as consistent with postmortem bite marks from cookiecutter sharks (Isistius spp.). It suggests that cookiecutter sharks were important agents in the degradation of the corpses and thus introduced potential cognitive bias in the research of the cause and manner of death. A novel set of evidence-based identification criteria for cookiecutter bite marks on human bodies is developed to facilitate more accurate medicolegal diagnosis of cookiecutter bites.

  20. Closing the gender gap in financial inclusion on a large scale | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2017-10-16

    Oct 16, 2017 ... More than 2 billion people lack access to a financial account — with women, the poor, and ... The Alliance comprises more than 100 member institutions ... societies, labour markets, and employment opportunities around the.

  1. Endogenous versus Exogenous Crashes in Financial Markets

    OpenAIRE

    A. Johansen; D. Sornette

    2002-01-01

    We perform an extended analysis of the distribution of drawdowns in the two leading exchange markets (US dollar against the Deutsmark and against the Yen), in the major world stock markets, in the U.S. and Japanese bond market and in the gold market, by introducing the concept of ``coarse-grained drawdowns,'' which allows for a certain degree of fuzziness in the definition of cumulative losses and improves on the statistics of our previous results on the existence of ``outliers'' or ``kings.'...

  2. Maternal intrusiveness, family financial means, and anxiety across childhood in a large multiphase sample of community youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper-Vince, Christine E.; Pincus, Donna B.; Comer, Jonathan S.

    2013-01-01

    Intrusive parenting has been positively associated with child anxiety, although examinations of this relationship to date have been largely confined to middle to upper middle class families and have rarely used longitudinal designs. With several leading interventions for child anxiety emphasizing the reduction of parental intrusiveness, it is critical to determine whether the links between parental intrusiveness and child anxiety broadly apply to families of all financial means, and whether parental intrusiveness prospectively predicts the development of child anxiety. This study employed latent growth curve analysis to evaluate the interactive effects of maternal intrusiveness and financial means on the developmental trajectory of child anxiety from 1st grade to age 15 in 1,121 children (50.7% male) and their parents from the NICHD SECCYD. The overall model was found to provide good fit, revealing that early maternal intrusiveness and financial means did not impact individual trajectories of change in child anxiety, which were stable from 1st to 5th grade, and then decrease from 5th grade to age 15. Cross-sectional analyses also examined whether family financial means moderated contemporaneous relationships between maternal intrusiveness and child anxiety in 3rd and 5th grades. The relationship between maternal intrusiveness and child anxiety was moderated by family financial means for 1st graders, with stronger links found among children of lower family financial means, but not for 3rd and 5th graders. Neither maternal intrusiveness nor financial means in 1st grade predicted subsequent changes in anxiety across childhood. Findings help elucidate for whom and when maternal intrusiveness has the greatest link with child anxiety and can inform targeted treatment efforts. PMID:23929005

  3. Estimating likelihood of future crashes for crash-prone drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subasish Das

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available At-fault crash-prone drivers are usually considered as the high risk group for possible future incidents or crashes. In Louisiana, 34% of crashes are repeatedly committed by the at-fault crash-prone drivers who represent only 5% of the total licensed drivers in the state. This research has conducted an exploratory data analysis based on the driver faultiness and proneness. The objective of this study is to develop a crash prediction model to estimate the likelihood of future crashes for the at-fault drivers. The logistic regression method is used by employing eight years' traffic crash data (2004–2011 in Louisiana. Crash predictors such as the driver's crash involvement, crash and road characteristics, human factors, collision type, and environmental factors are considered in the model. The at-fault and not-at-fault status of the crashes are used as the response variable. The developed model has identified a few important variables, and is used to correctly classify at-fault crashes up to 62.40% with a specificity of 77.25%. This model can identify as many as 62.40% of the crash incidence of at-fault drivers in the upcoming year. Traffic agencies can use the model for monitoring the performance of an at-fault crash-prone drivers and making roadway improvements meant to reduce crash proneness. From the findings, it is recommended that crash-prone drivers should be targeted for special safety programs regularly through education and regulations.

  4. Time-varying Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Feunoua, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

    We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on re...

  5. Reducing the environmental impact of trials: a comparison of the carbon footprint of the CRASH-1 and CRASH-2 clinical trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background All sectors of the economy, including the health research sector, must reduce their carbon emissions. The UK National Institute for Health Research has recently prepared guidelines on how to minimize the carbon footprint of research. We compare the carbon emissions from two international clinical trials in order to identify where emissions reductions can be made. Methods We conducted a carbon audit of two clinical trials (the CRASH-1 and CRASH-2 trials), quantifying the carbon dioxide emissions produced over a one-year audit period. Carbon emissions arising from the coordination centre, freight delivery, trial-related travel and commuting were calculated and compared. Results The total emissions in carbon dioxide equivalents during the one-year audit period were 181.3 tonnes for CRASH-1 and 108.2 tonnes for CRASH-2. In total, CRASH-1 emitted 924.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents compared with 508.5 tonnes for CRASH-2. The CRASH-1 trial recruited 10,008 patients over 5.1 years, corresponding to 92 kg of carbon dioxide per randomized patient. The CRASH-2 trial recruited 20,211 patients over 4.7 years, corresponding to 25 kg of carbon dioxide per randomized patient. The largest contributor to emissions in CRASH-1 was freight delivery of trial materials (86.0 tonnes, 48% of total emissions), whereas the largest contributor in CRASH-2 was energy use by the trial coordination centre (54.6 tonnes, 30% of total emissions). Conclusions Faster patient recruitment in the CRASH-2 trial largely accounted for its greatly increased carbon efficiency in terms of emissions per randomized patient. Lighter trial materials and web-based data entry also contributed to the overall lower carbon emissions in CRASH-2 as compared to CRASH-1. Trial Registration Numbers CRASH-1: ISRCTN74459797 CRASH-2: ISRCTN86750102 PMID:21291517

  6. Reducing the environmental impact of trials: a comparison of the carbon footprint of the CRASH-1 and CRASH-2 clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberts Ian

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background All sectors of the economy, including the health research sector, must reduce their carbon emissions. The UK National Institute for Health Research has recently prepared guidelines on how to minimize the carbon footprint of research. We compare the carbon emissions from two international clinical trials in order to identify where emissions reductions can be made. Methods We conducted a carbon audit of two clinical trials (the CRASH-1 and CRASH-2 trials, quantifying the carbon dioxide emissions produced over a one-year audit period. Carbon emissions arising from the coordination centre, freight delivery, trial-related travel and commuting were calculated and compared. Results The total emissions in carbon dioxide equivalents during the one-year audit period were 181.3 tonnes for CRASH-1 and 108.2 tonnes for CRASH-2. In total, CRASH-1 emitted 924.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents compared with 508.5 tonnes for CRASH-2. The CRASH-1 trial recruited 10,008 patients over 5.1 years, corresponding to 92 kg of carbon dioxide per randomized patient. The CRASH-2 trial recruited 20,211 patients over 4.7 years, corresponding to 25 kg of carbon dioxide per randomized patient. The largest contributor to emissions in CRASH-1 was freight delivery of trial materials (86.0 tonnes, 48% of total emissions, whereas the largest contributor in CRASH-2 was energy use by the trial coordination centre (54.6 tonnes, 30% of total emissions. Conclusions Faster patient recruitment in the CRASH-2 trial largely accounted for its greatly increased carbon efficiency in terms of emissions per randomized patient. Lighter trial materials and web-based data entry also contributed to the overall lower carbon emissions in CRASH-2 as compared to CRASH-1. Trial Registration Numbers CRASH-1: ISRCTN74459797 CRASH-2: ISRCTN86750102

  7. 78 FR 52605 - Announcing the Twenty First Public Meeting of the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-23

    ... large numbers of people injured in motor vehicle crashes. These teams are led by trauma surgeons and... in Frontal Impacts; Rib Fractures in Older Occupants; Changes Over Time in Injury and Crash...

  8. U.S.Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Eugene White; Frederic Mishkin

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines fifteen historical episodes of stock market crashes and their aftermath in the United States over the last one hundred years. Our basic conclusion from studying these episodes is that financial instability is the key problem facing monetary policy makers and not stock market crashes, even if they reflect the possible bursting of a bubble. With a focus on financial stability rather than the stock market, the response of central banks to stock market fluctuations is more lik...

  9. US stock market crashes and their aftermath: Implications for monetary policy

    OpenAIRE

    Mishkin, Frederic S.; White, Eugene N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines fifteen historical episodes of stock market crashes and their aftermath in the United States over the last one hundred years. Our basic conclusion from studying these episodes is that financial instability is the key problem facing monetary policy makers and not stock market crashes, even if they reflect the possible bursting of a bubble. With a focus on financial stability rather than the stock market, the response of central banks to stock market fluctuations is more lik...

  10. Financial return for government support of large-scale thin-film solar photovoltaic manufacturing in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Branker, K.; Pearce, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    As the Ontario government has recognized that solar photovoltaic (PV) energy conversion is a solution to satisfying energy demands while reducing the adverse anthropogenic impacts on the global environment that compromise social welfare, it has begun to generate policy to support financial incentives for PV. This paper provides a financial analysis for investment in a 1 GW per year turnkey amorphous silicon PV manufacturing plant. The financial benefits for both the provincial and federal governments were quantified for: (i) full construction subsidy, (ii) construction subsidy and sale, (iii) partially subsidize construction, (iv) a publicly owned plant, (v) loan guarantee for construction, and (vi) an income tax holiday. Revenues for the governments are derived from: taxation (personal, corporate, and sales), sales of panels in Ontario, and saved health, environmental and economic costs associated with offsetting coal-fired electricity. Both governments enjoyed positive cash flows from these investments in less than 12 years and in many of the scenarios both governments earned well over 8% on investments from 100 s of millions to $2.4 billion. The results showed that it is in the financial best interest of both the Ontario and Canadian federal governments to implement aggressive fiscal policy to support large-scale PV manufacturing.

  11. Load event: Aircraft crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritsch, H.

    1985-01-01

    The bibliography includes 48 quotations, up to the year 1983, on the following issues: Experiments and computational methods. Design load for the dimensioning of reinforced concrete buildings and components with respect to the dynamic load in the event of an aircraft crash. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Phantom crash confirms models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    To test computer models of how a nuclear reactor's containment building would fare if an airplane crashed into it, the Muto Institute in Tokyo sponsored a 3.2 million dollar project at Sandia National Laboratory to slam an F-4 Phantom jet into a 500 ton concrete wall. The results showed that the computer calculations were accurate

  13. Advances in Crash Response

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    In this podcast, Dr. Richard C. Hunt, Director of CDC's Division of Injury Response, provides an overview on the benefits of using an Advanced Automatic Collision Notification system, or AACN, to help with emergency triage of people injured in vehicle crashes.

  14. Corporate governance, competition, the new international financial architecture and large corporations in emerging markets

    OpenAIRE

    Ajit Singh; Bruce Weisse; Alaka Singh

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines from the developing countries perspective important analytical and policy issues arising from: a) the current international discussions about corporate governance in relation to the New International Financial Architecture; b) changes in the international competitive environment being caused by the enormous international merger movement in advanced countries. The background to a) above is the emergence of corporate governance as a key issue in the current G7 proposals...

  15. A comparison of workplace safety perceptions among financial decision-makers of medium- vs. large-size companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Leamon, Tom B; Courtney, Theodore K; Chen, Peter Y; DeArmond, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This study, through a random national survey in the U.S., explored how corporate financial decision-makers perceive important workplace safety issues as a function of the size of the company for which they worked (medium- vs. large-size companies). Telephone surveys were conducted with 404 U.S. corporate financial decision-makers: 203 from medium-size companies and 201 from large companies. Results showed that the patterns of responding for participants from medium- and large-size companies were somewhat similar. The top-rated safety priorities in resource allocation reported by participants from both groups were overexertion, repetitive motion, and bodily reaction. They believed that there were direct and indirect costs associated with workplace injuries and for every dollar spent improving workplace safety, more than four dollars would be returned. They perceived the top benefits of an effective safety program to be predominately financial in nature - increased productivity and reduced costs - and the safety modification participants mentioned most often was to have more/better safety-focused training. However, more participants from large- than medium-size companies reported that "falling on the same level" was the major cause of workers' compensation loss, which is in line with industry loss data. Participants from large companies were more likely to see their safety programs as better than those of other companies in their industries, and those of medium-size companies were more likely to mention that there were no improvements needed for their companies. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Not just a rural occurrence: differences in agricultural equipment crash characteristics by rural-urban crash site and proximity to town.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harland, Karisa K; Greenan, Mitchell; Ramirez, Marizen

    2014-09-01

    Although approximately one-third of agricultural equipment-related crashes occur near town, these crashes are thought to be a rural problem. This analysis examines differences between agricultural equipment-related crashes by their urban-rural distribution and distance from a town. Agricultural equipment crashes were collected from nine Midwest Departments of Transportation (2005-2008). Crash zip code was assigned as urban or rural (large, small and isolated) using Rural-Urban Commuting Areas. Crash proximity to a town was estimated with ArcGIS. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of crashing in an urban versus rural zip codes and across rural gradients. ANOVA analysis estimated mean distance (miles) from a crash site to a town. Over four years, 4444 crashes involved agricultural equipment. About 30% of crashes occurred in urban zip codes. Urban crashes were more likely to be non-collisions (aOR=1.69[1.24-2.30]), involve ≥2 vehicles (2 vehicles: aOR=1.58[1.14-2.20], 3+ vehicles: aOR=1.68[0.98-2.88]), occur in a town (aOR=2.06[1.73-2.45]) and within one mile of a town (aOR=1.65[1.40-1.95]) than rural crashes. The proportion of crashes within a town differed significantly across rural gradients (Purban-rural distribution (Pagricultural equipment are unexpectedly common in urban areas and near towns and cities. Education among all roadway users, increased visibility of agricultural equipment and the development of complete rural roads are needed to increase road safety and prevent agricultural equipment-related crashes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Crashes and near-crashes on horizontal curves along rural two-lane highways: Analysis of naturalistic driving data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Hallmark, Shauna; Savolainen, Peter; Dong, Jing

    2017-12-01

    Prior research has shown the probability of a crash occurring on horizontal curves to be significantly higher than on similar tangent segments, and a disproportionally higher number of curve-related crashes occurred in rural areas. Challenges arise when analyzing the safety of horizontal curves due to imprecision in integrating information as to the temporal and spatial characteristics of each crash with specific curves. The second Strategic Highway Research Program(SHRP 2) conducted a large-scale naturalistic driving study (NDS),which provides a unique opportunity to better understand the contributing factors leading to crash or near-crash events. This study utilizes high-resolution behavioral data from the NDS to identify factors associated with 108 safety critical events (i.e., crashes or near-crashes) on rural two-lane curves. A case-control approach is utilized wherein these events are compared to 216 normal, baseline-driving events. The variables examined in this study include driver demographic characteristics, details of the traffic environment and roadway geometry, as well as driver behaviors such as in-vehicle distractions. Logistic regression models are estimated to discern those factors affecting the likelihood of a driver being crash-involved. These factors include high-risk behaviors, such as speeding and visual distractions, as well as curve design elements and other roadway characteristics such as pavement surface conditions. This paper successfully integrated driver behavior, vehicle characteristics, and roadway environments into the same model. Logistic regression model was found to be an effective way to investigate crash risks using naturalistic driving data. This paper revealed a number of contributing factors to crashes on rural two-lane curves, which has important implications in traffic safety policy and curve geometry design. This paper also discussed limitations and lessons learned from working with the SHRP 2 NDS data. It will benefit

  18. Advances in Crash Response

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-06-29

    In this podcast, Dr. Richard C. Hunt, Director of CDC's Division of Injury Response, provides an overview on the benefits of using an Advanced Automatic Collision Notification system, or AACN, to help with emergency triage of people injured in vehicle crashes.  Created: 6/29/2009 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC), Division of Injury Response (DIR).   Date Released: 6/29/2009.

  19. Mechanism for rapid sawtooth crashes in tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aydemir, A.Y.; Hazeltine, R.D.

    1986-09-01

    The sawtooth oscillations in the soft x-ray signals observed in tokamaks are associated with periodic changes in the central electron temperature, T/sub e/. Typically, a slow phase during which the central temperature slowly rises is followed by a fast drop in T/sub e/, associated with flattening of the central temperature. The time scale of the slow phase is determined by various transport processes such as ohmic heating. The resistive internal kink mode was invoked by Kadomtsev to explain the crash phase of the oscillations. Fast crash times observed in the large tokamaks are studied here, especially the fast crashes observed in JET. These sawtooth oscillations are characterized by the absence of any discrenible precursor oscillations, and a rapid collapse of the central temperature in about 100 microseconds. During the crash phase, the hot core region rapidly moves outward and is replaced by colder plasma. Then, this highly asymmetric state relaxes (in ∼100μsec) to a poloidally symmetric state in which a ring of hot plasma surrounds the colder core plasma, producing a hollow pressure profile

  20. Omitted variable bias in crash reduction factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Transportation planners and traffic engineers are increasingly turning to crash reduction factors to evaluate changes in road : geometric and design features in order to reduce crashes. Crash reduction factors are typically estimated based on segment...

  1. Crash problem definition and safety benefits methodology for stability control for single-unit medium and heavy trucks and large-platform buses

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    This report presents the findings of a comprehensive engineering analysis of electronic stability control (ESC) and roll stability control (RSC) systems for single-unit medium and heavy trucks and large-platform buses. This report details the applica...

  2. Connected motorcycle crash warning interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-15

    Crash warning systems have been deployed in the high-end vehicle market segment for some time and are trickling down to additional motor vehicle industry segments each year. The motorcycle segment, however, has no deployed crash warning system to dat...

  3. Resisting "Crash Diet" Staff Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dana, Nancy Fichtman; Yendol-Hoppey, Diane

    2008-01-01

    People often respond to the pressure of attending a high school reunion or their child's wedding by going on a crash diet to get quick results. In response, friends may marvel about how good they look on the outside. But what folks don't acknowledge is that, in the name of getting results, crash dieters have done some very unhealthy things to…

  4. Mitigating Wind Induced Truck Crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-25

    Dangerous weather and high wind in particular, is a common contributing factor in truck crashes. High wind speeds have been documented as a perennial cause of truck crashes in Kansas and other Great Plains states. The possibility of reducing such cra...

  5. Corporate Social Responsibility in the Financial Sector: Are Financial Cooperatives Ready to the Challenge?

    OpenAIRE

    Élias Rizkallah; Inmaculada Buendía Martínez

    2011-01-01

    After the crash of financial institutions and the negative effects of the financial crisis, financial service cooperatives (FSCs) emerged as good performer compared to commercial banks. But this condition will not be enough to face the challenges that the new financial panorama will bring on the banking arena. Among them, challenges related to the corporate social responsibility (CSR) sphere will play a special role. In Canada, the financial regulatory framework forces some federal institutio...

  6. Energy from the desert. Very large scale photovoltaic systems: socio-economic, financial, technical and environmental aspects. Executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurokawa, K.; Ito, M.; Komoto, K.; Vleuten, P. van der; Faiman, D. (eds.)

    2009-05-15

    This executive summary report for the International Energy Agency (IEA) summarises the objectives and concepts of very large scale photovoltaic power generation (VLS-PV) systems and takes a look at the socio-economic, financial and technical aspects involved as well as the environmental impact of such systems. Potential benefits for desert communities, agricultural development and desalination of water are topics that are looked at. The potential of VLS-PV, its energy payback time and CO{sub 2} emission rates are discussed. Case studies for the Sahara and the Gobi Dessert areas are discussed. A VLS-PV roadmap is proposed and scenarios are discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn and recommendations are made.

  7. 77 FR 29884 - Assessment of Fees on Large Bank Holding Companies and Nonbank Financial Companies Supervised by...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-21

    ... holding company's four most recent Consolidated Financial Statements for Bank Holding Companies (FR Y-9C... with total consolidated assets of $50 billion or greater and nonbank financial companies supervised by... financial institutions and insurance companies were critical of the proposed use of total consolidated...

  8. Braking news: link between crash severity and crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    across severity levels were estimated to accommodate the ordered-response nature of severity. The sample used for estimation consisted of data for single-vehicle crashes extracted from the General Estimates System crash database for the period from 2005 to 2009. Results showed the correlation between...... of lower crash severity. These trends suggest that efforts to understand the mechanisms of reactions to different critical events should be made to improve in-vehicle warning systems, promote responsible driving behavior, and design forgiving infrastructures....

  9. Post-Crash Neoliberalism in Theory and Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Whitham, Ben

    2017-01-01

    The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link. Despite the massive state interventions into financial markets following the crash of 2007, the academic literature on the political-economic theory and practice of neoliberalism – a phenomenon often (mis)identified as equivalent to ‘free market’ fundamentalism or a second wave of laissez-faire – has continued to flourish, rather than decline i...

  10. Statistical analysis of vehicle crashes in Mississippi based on crash data from 2010 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-15

    Traffic crash data from 2010 to 2014 were collected by Mississippi Department of Transportation (MDOT) and extracted for the study. Three tasks were conducted in this study: (1) geographic distribution of crashes; (2) descriptive statistics of crash ...

  11. Intelligent geocoding system to locate traffic crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Xiao; Parker, Steven; Liu, Yi; Graettinger, Andrew J; Forde, Susie

    2013-01-01

    State agencies continue to face many challenges associated with new federal crash safety and highway performance monitoring requirements that use data from multiple and disparate systems across different platforms and locations. On a national level, the federal government has a long-term vision for State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) to report state route and off-state route crash data in a single network. In general, crashes occurring on state-owned or state maintained highways are a priority at the Federal and State level; therefore, state-route crashes are being geocoded by state DOTs. On the other hand, crashes occurring on off-state highway system do not always get geocoded due to limited resources and techniques. Creating and maintaining a statewide crash geographic information systems (GIS) map with state route and non-state route crashes is a complicated and expensive task. This study introduces an automatic crash mapping process, Crash-Mapping Automation Tool (C-MAT), where an algorithm translates location information from a police report crash record to a geospatial map and creates a pinpoint map for all crashes. The algorithm has approximate 83 percent mapping rate. An important application of this work is the ability to associate the mapped crash records to underlying business data, such as roadway inventory and traffic volumes. The integrated crash map is the foundation for effective and efficient crash analyzes to prevent highway crashes. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Alcohol and older drivers' crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Researchers have examined the effects of alcohol consumption : on older adults functioning, and some have : addressed alcohols effects on older drivers crash risk. : Generally, the findings have shown that alcohol is less : likely to be a fa...

  13. Improving freight crash incident management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the most effective way to mitigate the effect of freight : crash incidents on Louisiana freeways. Candidate incident management strategies were reviewed from : practice in other states and from those publi...

  14. Crash course in readers' advisory

    CERN Document Server

    Orr, Cynthia

    2014-01-01

    One of the key services librarians provide is helping readers find books they'll enjoy. This ""crash course"" will furnish you with the basic, practical information you need to excel at readers' advisory (RA) for adults and teens.

  15. Correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists in single-vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chen; Lu, Linjun; Lu, Jian; Wang, Tao

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve motorcycle safety, this article examines the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists, under multiple precrash conditions. Ten-year crash data for single-vehicle motorcycle crashes from the General Estimates Systems (GES) were analyzed, using partial proportional odds models (i.e., generalized ordered logit models). The modeling results show that "braking (no lock-up)" is associated with a higher probability of increased severity, whereas "braking (lock-up)" is associated with a higher probability of decreased severity, under all precrash conditions. "Steering" is associated with a higher probability of reduced injury severity when other vehicles are encroaching, whereas it is correlated with high injury severity under other conditions. "Braking and steering" is significantly associated with a higher probability of low severity under "animal encounter and object presence," whereas it is surprisingly correlated with high injury severity when motorcycles are traveling off the edge of the road. The results also show that a large number of motorcyclists did not perform any crash avoidance maneuvers or conducted crash avoidance maneuvers that are significantly associated with high injury severity. In general, this study suggests that precrash maneuvers are an important factor associated with motorcyclists' injury severity. To improve motorcycle safety, training/educational programs should be considered to improve safety awareness and adjust driving habits of motorcyclists. Antilock brakes and such systems are also promising, because they could effectively prevent brake lock-up and assist motorcyclists in maneuvering during critical conditions. This study also provides valuable information for the design of motorcycle training curriculum.

  16. Motorcycle crashes potentially preventable by three crash avoidance technologies on passenger vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teoh, Eric R

    2018-07-04

    The objective of this study was to identify and quantify the motorcycle crash population that would be potential beneficiaries of 3 crash avoidance technologies recently available on passenger vehicles. Two-vehicle crashes between a motorcycle and a passenger vehicle that occurred in the United States during 2011-2015 were classified by type, with consideration of the functionality of 3 classes of passenger vehicle crash avoidance technologies: frontal crash prevention, lane maintenance, and blind spot detection. Results were expressed as the percentage of crashes potentially preventable by each type of technology, based on all known types of 2-vehicle crashes and based on all crashes involving motorcycles. Frontal crash prevention had the largest potential to prevent 2-vehicle motorcycle crashes with passenger vehicles. The 3 technologies in sum had the potential to prevent 10% of fatal 2-vehicle crashes and 23% of police-reported crashes. However, because 2-vehicle crashes with a passenger vehicle represent fewer than half of all motorcycle crashes, these technologies represent a potential to avoid 4% of all fatal motorcycle crashes and 10% of all police-reported motorcycle crashes. Refining the ability of passenger vehicle crash avoidance systems to detect motorcycles represents an opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. Expanding the capabilities of these technologies represents an even greater opportunity. However, even fully realizing these opportunities can affect only a minority of motorcycle crashes and does not change the need for other motorcycle safety countermeasures such as helmets, universal helmet laws, and antilock braking systems.

  17. APPLICABILITY OF A STRATEGIC MAP UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF CRITICAL FACTORS FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT MATURITY AT A LARGE FINANCIAL INSTITUTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sady Darcy da Silva Junior

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Project Management and Strategic Management are two subjects of major relevance within the corporate environment, despite usually being treated separately, at organizations. However, for Westphal et al. (2008 one of the ways to link project management and strategy is through project management maturity, and to this effect, a series of actions that can be characterized as critical factors (Rabechini Jr. & Pessoa, 2005 are required. Another way of seeking this connection is by means of the strategic map concept which, according to Kaplan and Norton (2004, p.10, “represents the lost link between strategy formulation and the execution of the strategy”. In this study the purpose is to evaluate the applicability of a strategic map, from a critical factors perspective, on project management maturity, as proposed by Silva Jr. and Luciano (2010. Thus a qualitative and exploratory approach case study was conducted at a large financial institution, where three interview scripts were applied on nine professionals, whereby three were leaders, three were project managers and three, functional managers. Furthermore, a graphical representation standard was designed picturing possible situations concerning the applicability of strategic objectives of the map proposed in the case under study. As a result, an important academic contribution to the vague and scarce literature on the relationship between project management and organizational strategy was verified, in addition to mapping possibilities of improvements for the organization, which otherwise might have been impossible to identify.

  18. Lightweight electric-powered vehicles. Which financial incentives after the large-scale field tests at Mendrisio?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, M.; Frick, R.; Hammer, S.

    1999-08-01

    How should lightweight electric-powered vehicles be promoted, after the large-scale fleet test being conducted at Mendrisio (southern Switzerland) is completed in 2001, and are there reasons to put question marks behind the current approach? The demand for electric vehicles, and particularly the one in the automobile category, has remained at a persistently low level. As it proved, any appreciable improvement of this situation is almost impossible, even with substantial financial incentives. However, the unsatisfactory sales figures have little to do with the nature of the fleet test itself or with the specific conditions at Mendrisio. The problem is rather of structural nature. For (battery-operated) electric cars the main problem at present is the lack of an expanding market which could become self-supporting with only a few additional incentives. Various strategies have been evaluated. Two alternatives were considered in particular: a strategy to promote explicitly electric vehicles ('EL-strategy'), and a strategy to promote efficient road vehicles in general which would have to meet specific energy and environmental-efficiency criteria ('EF-strategy'). The EL-strategies make the following dilemma clear. If the aim is to raise the share of these vehicles up to 5% of all cars on the road (or even 8%) in a mid-term prospect, then substantial interventions in the relevant vehicle markets would be required, either with penalties for conventional cars, or a large-scale funding scheme, or interventions at the supply level. The study suggests a differentiated strategy with two components: (i) 'institutionalised' promotion with the aim of a substantial increase of the share of 'efficient' vehicles (independently of the propulsion technology), and (ii) the continuation of pilot and demonstration projects for the promotion of different types of innovative technologies. (author) [de

  19. Bubbles in a minority game setting with real financial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnet, Frédéric D. R.; Allison, Andrew; Abbott, Derek

    2005-12-01

    It is a well observed fact that markets follow both positive and/or negative trends, crashes and bubble effects. In general a strong positive trend is followed by a crash--a famous example of these effects was seen in the recent crash on the NASDAQ (April 2000) and prior to the crash in the Hong Kong market, which was associated with the Asian crisis in the early 1994. In this paper we use real market data coupled into a minority game with different payoff functions to study the dynamics and the location of financial bubbles.

  20. "Crashing the gates" - selection criteria for television news reporting of traffic crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Ceunynck, Tim; De Smedt, Julie; Daniels, Stijn; Wouters, Ruud; Baets, Michèle

    2015-07-01

    This study investigates which crash characteristics influence the probability that the crash is reported in the television news. To this purpose, all news items from the period 2006-2012 about traffic crashes from the prime time news of two Belgian television channels are linked to the official injury crash database. Logistic regression models are built for the database of all injury crashes and for the subset of fatal crashes to identify crash characteristics that correlate with a lower or higher probability of being reported in the news. A number of significant biases in terms of crash severity, time, place, types of involved road users and victims' personal characteristics are found in the media reporting of crashes. More severe crashes are reported in the media more easily than less severe crashes. Significant fluctuations in media reporting probability through time are found in terms of the year and month in which the crash took place. Crashes during week days are generally less reported in the news. The geographical area (province) in which the crash takes place also has a significant impact on the probability of being reported in the news. Crashes on motorways are significantly more represented in the news. Regarding the age of the involved victims, a clear trend of higher media reporting rates of crashes involving young victims or young fatalities is observed. Crashes involving female fatalities are also more frequently reported in the news. Furthermore, crashes involving a bus have a significantly higher probability of being reported in the news, while crashes involving a motorcycle have a significantly lower probability. Some models also indicate a lower reporting rate of crashes involving a moped, and a higher reporting rate of crashes involving heavy goods vehicles. These biases in media reporting can create skewed perceptions in the general public about the prevalence of traffic crashes and eventually may influence people's behaviour. Copyright © 2015

  1. Understanding Business Interests in International Large-Scale Student Assessments: A Media Analysis of "The Economist," "Financial Times," and "Wall Street Journal"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner-Khamsi, Gita; Appleton, Margaret; Vellani, Shezleen

    2018-01-01

    The media analysis is situated in the larger body of studies that explore the varied reasons why different policy actors advocate for international large-scale student assessments (ILSAs) and adds to the research on the fast advance of the global education industry. The analysis of "The Economist," "Financial Times," and…

  2. Crash testing the largest experiment on Earth

    OpenAIRE

    Cauchi, Marija

    2015-01-01

    Under Europe lies a 27 km tunnel that is both the coldest and hottest place on Earth. The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has already found out what gives mass to all the matter in the Universe. It is now trying to go even deeper into what makes up everything we see around us. Dr Marija Cauchi writes about her research that helped protect this atom smasher from itself. Photography by Jean Claude Vancell. http://www.um.edu.mt/think/crash-testing-the-largest-experiment-on-earth/

  3. Empirical fractal geometry analysis of some speculative financial bubbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redelico, Francisco O.; Proto, Araceli N.

    2012-11-01

    Empirical evidence of a multifractal signature during increasing of a financial bubble leading to a crash is presented. The April 2000 crash in the NASDAQ composite index and a time series from the discrete Chakrabarti-Stinchcombe model for earthquakes are analyzed using a geometric approach and some common patterns are identified. These patterns can be related the geometry of the rising period of a financial bubbles with the non-concave entropy problem.

  4. Statewide analysis of bicycle crashes : [project summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    An extensive literature review was conducted to locate existing studies in four areas: (1) risk factors that affect the frequency and severity of bicycle crashes; (2) bicycle crash causes, patterns, and contributing factors; (3) network screening met...

  5. Alcohol-crash problem in Canada, 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    This report examines: data on alcohol in fatally injured drivers and pedestrians; the number and : percent of people who died in alcohol-related crashes; and alcohol involvement in those crashes : in which someone was seriously injured but not killed...

  6. Alcohol-crash problem in Canada, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    This report examines: data on alcohol in fatally injured drivers and pedestrians; the number and : percent of people who died in alcohol-related crashes; and alcohol involvement in those crashes : in which someone was seriously injured but not killed...

  7. Alcohol-crash problem in Canada, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    This report examines: data on alcohol in fatally injured drivers and pedestrians; the number and : percent of people who died in alcohol-related crashes; and alcohol involvement in those crashes : in which someone was seriously injured but not killed...

  8. National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVVCS) was a nationwide survey of crashes involving light passenger vehicles, with a focus on the factors related...

  9. Teen driver crashes : a report to Congress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes what is known about the teen driver crash problem and reviews the research on the major contributing factors to the high teen crash rate. Dispositional factors, such as immaturity, inexperience, faulty judgment, and a higher pr...

  10. 2004 road traffic crashes in Queensland

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-05-01

    This report presents an overview of reported road traffic crashes in Queensland during : 2004 in the context of the previous five years based on data contained in the Queensland : Road Crash Information System maintained by the Department of Transpor...

  11. Conscientious personality and young drivers’ crash risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ehsani, Johnathon P.; Li, Kaigang; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Tree-McGrath, Cheyenne Fox; Perlus, Jessamyn; O’Brien, Fearghal; Klauer, Sheila G.

    2015-01-01

    Personality characteristics are associated with many risk behaviors. However, the relationship between personality traits, risky driving behavior, and crash risk is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between personality, risky driving behavior, and crashes and near-crashes, using naturalistic driving research methods. Method: Participants' driving exposure, kinematic risky driving (KRD), high-risk secondary task engagement, and the frequency of crashes...

  12. Building concepts against airplane crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henkel, F.O.; Woelfel, H.

    1984-01-01

    In Germany safety related buildings of nuclear facilities as well as their equipment are to be designed against airplane crash. While the safety of the structure itself can always be guaranteed by structural means, the induced vibrations may cause severe problems for the equipment. Considerable effort was expended in recent years to comprehend the load case airplane crash in a more exact manner and to evaluate reasonable floor response spectra. Besides this analytical effort, investigations are cited to minimize the induced vibrations by new structural concepts. The present paper gives a survey concerning the development of structural concepts, culminating in the double shell structures that are state of the art today. Then the idea of spring supports, as it is known for the aseismic foundation of buildings, is further developed to a new spring concept which reduces the induced vibrations in an optimum way in the load case airplane crash and which additionally isolates earthquake vibrations. (orig.)

  13. Identifying the Bottom Line after a Stock Market Crash

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehner, B. M.

    In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often referred to as the interest rate spread variable, can be considered as a statistical measure for the disparity in lenders' opinions about the future; in other words, it provides an operational definition of the uncertainty faced by economic agents. The observation that there is a strong negative correlation between stock prices and the spread variable relies on the examination of eight major crashes in the United States between 1857 and 1987. That relationship which has remained valid for one and a half century in spite of important changes in the organization of financial markets can be of interest in the perspective of Monte Carlo simulations of stock markets.

  14. From “Crash!” to Crash: Adapting the Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljubica Matek

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on J.G. Ballard’s various adaptations of his own material related to the issue of the sexual and sensual nature of an automobile crash, and suggests that adaptation is one of the key methods in art and literature which can be used as a means of contemplating and developing various aesthetic and political ideas. Ballard’s short story “Crash!” was first published in the ICA’s (Institute of Contemporary Arts Eventsheet in February 1969, and later became a chapter of his experimental novel The Atrocity Exhibition (1970. At the same time, Ballard adapts the idea into the “Crashed Cars” exhibition (1970 in London. The short story was then adapted into a short film, Crash!, directed by Harley Cokeliss (1971 and starring Ballard himself, to be finally adapted into the novel Crash (1973. Ballard’s adaptation of his initial ideas across literary forms and media testifies to the importance of adaptation as a process and method of creating art. Thus, rather than suggesting that adaptations merely “breathe life” into the written word, the paper points to the conclusion that the form and content are mutually influential and that, in this case, the novel itself is an adaptation, rather than a hypotext (which it becomes in 1996 to David Cronenberg as he adapts it to film. The complexity of the relationship between the source text and its many adaptations has already contributed to the deconstruction, in Derrida’s terms, of the hierarchy (opposition between the original and the copy. Rather, Ballard’s crossmedial and transmedial adaptations of his own ideas show how, as Ray would suggest, an adaptation cites the source and grafts it into a new context, giving it a new function, both aesthetic and political.

  15. Technostress: Surviving a Database Crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobb, Linda S.

    1990-01-01

    Discussion of technostress in libraries focuses on a database crash at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. Steps taken to restore the data are explained, strategies for handling technological accidents are suggested, the impact on library staff is discussed, and a 10-item annotated bibliography on technostress is provided.…

  16. Crash simulations for interior design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poeze, E.; Slaats, P.M.A.

    1996-01-01

    With the increasing number of compact cars, safety aspects becomes increasingly important for interior designs. The smaller dimensions of these cars do not only decrease the car mass, but also the energy absorption length, resulting in a more severe crash pulse. As a consequence, the inertia loading

  17. 2008 Michigan traffic crash facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-18

    In keeping with recent trends, traffic fatalities in 2008 were down to 980, a 9.6 : percent decrease from last year. The total number of persons injured also declined : 7.5 percent to 74,568 and total crashes dropped 2.5 percent to 316,057. Most : no...

  18. 2009 Michigan traffic crash facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    In keeping with recent trends, traffic fatalities in 2009 were down to 871, a 11.1 : percent decrease from last year. The total number of persons injured also declined : 4.9 percent to 70,931 and total crashes dropped 7.9 percent to 290,978. Most : n...

  19. Using trading strategies to detect phase transitions in financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forró, Z; Woodard, R; Sornette, D

    2015-04-01

    We show that the log-periodic power law singularity model (LPPLS), a mathematical embodiment of positive feedbacks between agents and of their hierarchical dynamical organization, has a significant predictive power in financial markets. We find that LPPLS-based strategies significantly outperform the randomized ones and that they are robust with respect to a large selection of assets and time periods. The dynamics of prices thus markedly deviate from randomness in certain pockets of predictability that can be associated with bubble market regimes. Our hybrid approach, marrying finance with the trading strategies, and critical phenomena with LPPLS, demonstrates that targeting information related to phase transitions enables the forecast of financial bubbles and crashes punctuating the dynamics of prices.

  20. Using trading strategies to detect phase transitions in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forró, Z.; Woodard, R.; Sornette, D.

    2015-04-01

    We show that the log-periodic power law singularity model (LPPLS), a mathematical embodiment of positive feedbacks between agents and of their hierarchical dynamical organization, has a significant predictive power in financial markets. We find that LPPLS-based strategies significantly outperform the randomized ones and that they are robust with respect to a large selection of assets and time periods. The dynamics of prices thus markedly deviate from randomness in certain pockets of predictability that can be associated with bubble market regimes. Our hybrid approach, marrying finance with the trading strategies, and critical phenomena with LPPLS, demonstrates that targeting information related to phase transitions enables the forecast of financial bubbles and crashes punctuating the dynamics of prices.

  1. Reporting on cyclist crashes in Australian newspapers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boufous, Soufiane; Aboss, Ahmad; Montgomery, Victoria

    2016-10-01

    To assess information on cyclist crashes reported in Australian newspapers. The Factiva news archive was searched for articles on cyclist crashes published in major Australian newspapers between 2010 and 2013. Information on the circumstances of cyclist crashes were extracted and coded. A total of 160 cyclist crashes were covered by 198 newspaper articles, with 44% of crashes resulting in cyclist fatalities. Crashes reported by more than one newspaper were more likely to involve public figures or protracted court cases. Individual characteristics of cyclists as well as the location of the crash were reported for more than 80% of crashes. The road user at fault was reported for more than half of crashes. In contrast, information on helmet use, alcohol and cycling lanes was mentioned for only about 10% of crashes. Fewer than one in five articles mentioned prevention strategies including education campaigns, legislative and infrastructure changes. Australian newspapers tend to focus on the most dramatic and more 'newsworthy' aspects of cyclist crashes. Cycling advocates need to work with journalists to improve the quality of this coverage. Better communication between cycling advocates and journalists is likely to have a positive impact on the safety and the uptake of cycling in the community. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

  2. 77 FR 35 - Assessment of Fees on Large Bank Holding Companies and Nonbank Financial Companies Supervised by...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-03

    ... will work closely with the Board, to determine the population of assessed companies and the basis for...--Consolidated Balance Sheet) as reported on the bank holding company's four most recent Consolidated Financial... final rule is published and Treasury will work with the companies to verify the total assessable assets...

  3. Naturalistic Assessment of Novice Teenage Crash Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Suzanne E.; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Klauer, Sheila E.; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Dingus, Thomas A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Crash risk is highest during the first months after licensure. Current knowledge about teenagers’ driving exposure and the factors increasing their crash risk is based on self-reported data and crash database analyses. While these research tools are useful, new developments in naturalistic technologies have allowed researchers to examine newly-licensed teenagers’ exposure and crash risk factors in greater detail. The Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study (NTDS) described in this paper is the first study to follow a group of newly-licensed teenagers continuously for 18 months after licensure. The goals of this paper are to compare the crash and near-crash experience of drivers in the NTDS to national trends, to describe the methods and lessons learned in the NTDS, and to provide initial data on driving exposure for these drivers. Methods A data acquisition system was installed in the vehicles of 42 newly-licensed teenage drivers 16 years of age during their first 18 months of independent driving. It consisted of cameras, sensors (accelerometers, GPS, yaw, front radar, lane position, and various sensors obtained via the vehicle network), and a computer with removable hard drive. Data on the driving of participating parents was also collected when they drove the instrumented vehicle. Findings The primary findings after 18 months included the following: (1) crash and near-crash rates among teenage participants were significantly higher during the first six months of the study than the final 12 months, mirroring the national trends; (2) crash and near-crash rates were significantly higher for teenage than adult (parent) participants, also reflecting national trends; (3) teenaged driving exposure averaged between 507-710 kilometers (315-441 miles) per month over the study period, but varied substantially between participants with standard errors representing 8-14 percent of the mean; and (4) crash and near-crash types were very similar for male and female

  4. Effect of Accounting for Crash Severity on the Relationship between Mass Reduction and Crash Frequency and Risk per Crash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Building Technology and Urban Systems Division. Energy Technologies Area

    2016-05-20

    Previous analyses have indicated that mass reduction is associated with an increase in crash frequency (crashes per VMT), but a decrease in fatality or casualty risk once a crash has occurred, across all types of light-duty vehicles. These results are counter-intuitive: one would expect that lighter, and perhaps smaller, vehicles have better handling and shorter braking distances, and thus should be able to avoid crashes that heavier vehicles cannot. And one would expect that heavier vehicles would have lower risk once a crash has occurred than lighter vehicles. However, these trends occur under several alternative regression model specifications. This report tests whether these results continue to hold after accounting for crash severity, by excluding crashes that result in relatively minor damage to the vehicle(s) involved in the crash. Excluding non-severe crashes from the initial LBNL Phase 2 and simultaneous two-stage regression models for the most part has little effect on the unexpected relationships observed in the baseline regression models. This finding suggests that other subtle differences in vehicles and/or their drivers, or perhaps biases in the data reported in state crash databases, are causing the unexpected results from the regression models.

  5. Financialization and financial profit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Guillén

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This article starts from the critical review of the concept of financial capital. I consider it is necessary not to confuse this category with of financialization, which has acquired a certificate of naturalization from the rise of neoliberalism. Although financial monopoly-financial capital is the hegemonic segment of the bourgeoisie in the major capitalist countries, their dominance does not imply, a fortiori, financialization of economic activity, since it depends of the conditions of the process reproduction of capital. The emergence of joint stock companies modified the formation of the average rate of profit. The "promoter profit" becomes one of the main forms of income of monopoly-financial capital. It is postulated that financial profit is a kind of "extraordinary surplus-value" which is appropriated by monopoly-financial capital by means of the monopolistic control it exerts on the issue and circulation of fictitious capital.

  6. Dynamic Evolution of Financial Network and its Relation to Economic Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Ya-Chun; Wei, Zong-Wen; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2013-02-01

    The static topology properties of financial networks have been widely investigated since the work done by Mantegna, yet their dynamic evolution with time is little considered. In this paper, we comprehensively study the dynamic evolution of financial network by a sliding window technique. The vertices and edges of financial network are represented by the stocks from S&P500 components and correlations between pairs of daily returns of price fluctuation, respectively. Furthermore, the duration of stock price fluctuation, spanning from January 4, 1985 to September 14, 2009, makes us to carefully observe the relation between the dynamic topological properties and big financial crashes. The empirical results suggest that the financial network has the robust small-world property when the time evolves, and the topological structure drastically changes when the big financial crashes occur. This correspondence between the dynamic evolution of financial network and big financial crashes may provide a novel view to understand the origin of economic crisis.

  7. Observed and unobserved correlation between crash avoidance manoeuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    Understanding drivers’ responses to critical events, analyzing drivers’ abilities to perform corrective manoeuvers, and investigating the correlation between these manoeuvers and crash severity provide the opportunity of increasing the knowledge about how to avoid crash occurrence or at least mit...

  8. Religion and stock price crash risk: Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenfei Li

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether religious traditions influence firm-specific crash risk in China. Using a sample of A-share listed firms from 2003 to 2013, we provide evidence that the more intense the religious environment, the lower the stock price crash risk, implying that religion plays an important role in Chinese corporate governance. Further, we find that (1 religion affects stock price crash risk by reducing earnings management and the management perk problem; (2 different religions have different effects, and Taoism, in particular, is unrelated to crash risk; and (3 the effects of religion are more pronounced with higher quality corporate governance and a stronger legal environment. Religion constrains the management agency problem, thus reducing stock price crash risk in China. Our paper enriches the literature on stock price crash risk and religion, and on new economic geography.

  9. Comparison of moped, scooter and motorcycle crash risk and crash severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackman, Ross A; Haworth, Narelle L

    2013-08-01

    The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters in Australia and elsewhere in the last decade has contributed substantially to the greater use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) as a whole. As the exposure of mopeds and scooters has increased, so too has the number of reported crashes involving those PTW types, but there is currently little research comparing the safety of mopeds and, particularly, larger scooters with motorcycles. This study compared the crash risk and crash severity of motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in Queensland, Australia. Comprehensive data cleansing was undertaken to separate motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in police-reported crash data covering the five years to 30 June 2008. The crash rates of motorcycles (including larger scooters) and mopeds in terms of registered vehicles were similar over this period, although the moped crash rate showed a stronger downward trend. However, the crash rates in terms of distance travelled were nearly four times higher for mopeds than for motorcycles (including larger scooters). More comprehensive distance travelled data is needed to confirm these findings. The overall severity of moped and scooter crashes was significantly lower than motorcycle crashes but an ordered probit regression model showed that crash severity outcomes related to differences in crash characteristics and circumstances, rather than differences between PTW types per se. Greater motorcycle crash severity was associated with higher (>80km/h) speed zones, horizontal curves, weekend, single vehicle and nighttime crashes. Moped crashes were more severe at night and in speed zones of 90km/h or more. Larger scooter crashes were more severe in 70km/h zones (than 60km/h zones) but not in higher speed zones, and less severe on weekends than on weekdays. The findings can be used to inform potential crash and injury countermeasures tailored to users of different PTW types. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Vehicular crash data used to rank intersections by injury crash frequency and severity

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Yi; Li, Zongzhi; Liu, Jingxian; Patel, Harshingar

    2016-01-01

    This article contains data on research conducted in “A double standard model for allocating limited emergency medical service vehicle resources ensuring service reliability” (Liu et al., 2016) [1]. The crash counts were sorted out from comprehensive crash records of over one thousand major signalized intersections in the city of Chicago from 2004 to 2010. For each intersection, vehicular crashes were counted by crash severity levels, including fatal, injury Types A, B, and C for major, modera...

  11. Understanding traffic crash under-reporting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær; Kaplan, Sigal; Hels, Tove

    2016-01-01

    Objective: This study aligns to the body of research dedicated to estimating the underreporting of road crash injuries and adds the perspective of understanding individual and crash factors contributing to the decision to report a crash to the police, the hospital, or both. Method: This study foc...... policy measures aimed at increasing the reporting rate by targeting specific road user groups (e.g., males, young road users) or specific situational factors (e.g., slight injuries, arm injuries, leg injuries, weekend)....

  12. AP English language & composition crash course

    CERN Document Server

    Hogue, Dawn

    2012-01-01

    AP English Language & Composition Crash Course - Gets You a Higher Advanced Placement Score in Less Time Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, the last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject. AP English Language & Composition Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP English Language & Composition course description outline and actual Advanced Placement test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exam, so you can make the most of your valua

  13. AP calculus AB & BC crash course

    CERN Document Server

    Rosebush, J

    2012-01-01

    AP Calculus AB & BC Crash Course - Gets You a Higher Advanced Placement Score in Less Time Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, the last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject. AP Calculus AB & BC Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP Calculus AB & BC course description outline and actual AP test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exams, so you can make the most of your valuable study time. Written by experienced math teachers, our

  14. A comprehensive engineering analysis of motorcycle crashes in Maryland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    The goal of this study was to identify recurring or common road characteristics of motorcycle crashes : in Maryland from 1998 to 2007. Motorcycle crash data was obtained from the National Highway : Traffic Safety Administrations Crash Outcome Data...

  15. 2008 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic crash summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    The Motor Vehicle Traffic Crash Summary is divided into two main sections, Historical : Trends and 2008 Motor Vehicle Traffic Crash Profile. The Historical Trend section : provides information on alcohol involvement in motor vehicle crashes, severity...

  16. 2010 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic crash summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    The Motor Vehicle Traffic Crash Summary is divided into two main sections, Historical Trends and 2010 Motor Vehicle Traffic Crash Profile. The Historical Trend section provides information on alcohol involvement in motor vehicle crashes, severity of ...

  17. 2009 South Dakota motor vehicle traffic crash summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    The Motor Vehicle Traffic Crash Summary is divided into two main sections, Historical : Trends and 2009 Motor Vehicle Traffic Crash Profile. The Historical Trend section : provides information on alcohol involvement in motor vehicle crashes, severity...

  18. CDC Vital Signs: Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries: Costly but Preventable

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Press Kit Read the MMWR Science Clips Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries Costly but Preventable Language: English (US) ... and how to prevent future crashes. Problem Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of injury in ...

  19. Practical C++ financial programming

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    Practical C++ Financial Programming is a hands-on book for programmers wanting to apply C++ to programming problems in the financial industry. The book explains those aspects of the language that are more frequently used in writing financial software, including the STL, templates, and various numerical libraries. The book also describes many of the important problems in financial engineering that are part of the day-to-day work of financial programmers in large investment banks and hedge funds. The author has extensive experience in the New York City financial industry that is now distilled in

  20. Understanding Turkish students' preferences for distance education depending on financial circumstances: A large-scale CHAID analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firat, Mehmet

    2017-04-01

    In the past, distance education was used as a method to meet the educational needs of citizens with limited options to attend an institution of higher education. Nowadays, it has become irreplaceable in higher education thanks to developments in instructional technology. But the question of why students choose distance education is still important. The purpose of this study was to determine Turkish students' reasons for choosing distance education and to investigate how these reasons differ depending on their financial circumstances. The author used a Chi squared Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) analysis to determine 18,856 Turkish students' reasons for choosing distance education. Results of the research revealed that Turkish students chose distance education not because of geographical limitations, family-related problems or economic difficulties, but for such reasons as already being engaged in their profession, increasing their knowledge, and seeking promotion to a better position.

  1. Comparison of teen and adult driver crash scenarios in a nationally representative sample of serious crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Catherine C; Curry, Allison E; Kandadai, Venk; Sommers, Marilyn S; Winston, Flaura K

    2014-11-01

    Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death and acquired disability during the first four decades of life. While teen drivers have the highest crash risk, few studies examine the similarities and differences in teen and adult driver crashes. We aimed to: (1) identify and compare the most frequent crash scenarios-integrated information on a vehicle's movement prior to crash, immediate pre-crash event, and crash configuration-for teen and adult drivers involved in serious crashes, and (2) for the most frequent scenarios, explore whether the distribution of driver critical errors differed for teens and adult drivers. We analyzed data from the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey, a nationally representative study of serious crashes conducted by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from 2005 to 2007. Our sample included 642 16- to 19-year-old and 1167 35- to 54-year-old crash-involved drivers (weighted n=296,482 and 439,356, respectively) who made a critical error that led to their crash's critical pre-crash event (i.e., event that made the crash inevitable). We estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare the relative frequency of crash scenarios and driver critical errors. The top five crash scenarios among teen drivers, accounting for 37.3% of their crashes, included: (1) going straight, other vehicle stopped, rear end; (2) stopped in traffic lane, turning left at intersection, turn into path of other vehicle; (3) negotiating curve, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; (4) going straight, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; and (5) stopped in lane, turning left at intersection, turn across path of other vehicle. The top five crash scenarios among adult drivers, accounting for 33.9% of their crashes, included the same scenarios as the teen drivers with the exception of scenario (3) and the addition of going straight, crossing over an intersection, and continuing on a

  2. SELF-REPORTED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CRASH-INVOLVED AND NON-CRASH-INVOLVED THREE-WHEELER DRIVERS IN SRI LANKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K. SOMASUNDARASWARAN, Dr.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite being an important mode of transportation in the developing world, little research has been conducted to understand the factors contributing to crashes involving three wheel vehicles. This study surveyed a convenient sample of 505 professional three-wheeler drivers in Sri Lanka to explore the similarities and differences in the demographic and work characteristics between three-wheeler drivers who reported experiencing at least one collision in the past twelve months and those who reported that they were not involved in any collisions. Our study revealed some interesting results that were quite different from those obtained in the studies on professional drivers in developed countries. In particular, both drivers with less than one year and more than five years of driving experience in our study were found to be associated with higher probability of crash involvement. Also, the number of trips per day and the average travel distance per trip were found to be insignificant in delineating between crash-involved and non-crash-involved drivers. Moreover, crash-involved drivers, on average, have significantly fewer working days per week and fewer hours per day, suggesting that the conventional approach used in most developed countries to tackle fatigue among professional drivers do not appear to be suitable for solving the road safety problem involving three-wheeler drivers in a developing country. Also, since the age of most drivers falls in a narrow range, this U-shaped relationship is not likely to be a result of youth and ageing but of inexperience in newer drivers and complacency in more experienced drivers. Lastly, since a relatively large proportion of the drivers had driven without a valid driving license, legislation and enforcement interventions are likely to be less effective than education and engineering countermeasures.

  3. Airplane crash simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovall, Ola

    2007-01-01

    Impact loads are considered in nuclear facility design as the result of the loading effects of certain design basis accidents and design basis threats made up of natural as well as man-made hazards. Also, beyond design basis accidents and threats are considered. Typical missiles include objects caused by tornado winds, aircrafts, war or terrorist activities, dropped objects, turbine fragments and other missiles resulting from failure of rotating equipment and whipping pipes and other objects of failure of pressurized fluid systems. The aim of the work is to study the potential of tools for numerical simulations to study the local load effects of airplane missiles impacting concrete structures. Two of the leading commercial computer codes for analysis of highly dynamic events, ABAQUS/Explicit and AUTODYN, have been evaluated. Numerical simulations have been carried out for rigid as well as deformable missiles with the characteristics of airplane engines. The analysis results have been compared with test results from a test program performed in the USA at Sandia National Laboratory and in Japan at Kobori Research Complex and Central Research Institute of the Electric Power industry. Finally, numerical simulations of a large passenger airliner impacting a reactor containment has been carried out using the analysis methodology developed. (author)

  4. Predicting motorcycle crash injury severity using weather data and alternative Bayesian multivariate crash frequency models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Sakrani, Taha; Dasu, Mohan; Zhou, Jiao

    2017-11-01

    Motorcycle crashes constitute a very high proportion of the overall motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, and many studies have examined the influential factors under various conditions. However, research on the impact of weather conditions on the motorcycle crash severity is not well documented. In this study, we examined the impact of weather conditions on motorcycle crash injuries at four different severity levels using San Francisco motorcycle crash injury data. Five models were developed using Full Bayesian formulation accounting for different correlations commonly seen in crash data and then compared for fitness and performance. Results indicate that the models with serial and severity variations of parameters had superior fit, and the capability of accurate crash prediction. The inferences from the parameter estimates from the five models were: an increase in the air temperature reduced the possibility of a fatal crash but had a reverse impact on crashes of other severity levels; humidity in air was not observed to have a predictable or strong impact on crashes; the occurrence of rainfall decreased the possibility of crashes for all severity levels. Transportation agencies might benefit from the research results to improve road safety by providing motorcyclists with information regarding the risk of certain crash severity levels for special weather conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Emerging interdependence between stock values during financial crashes

    OpenAIRE

    Rocchi, Jacopo; Tsui, Enoch Yan Lok; Saad, David

    2016-01-01

    To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the information flow across stock values to identify several different regimes. While small information flows is detected in most of the period, a dramatically different situation occurs...

  6. Crash-Tech 2001. Conference; Crash-Tech 2001. Tagung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    Improved active and passive safety of motor vehicles has resulted in a very much improved accident statistics. This conference discussed further optimisations in motor car safety. The harmonisation of test specifications world-wide was gone into, with particular interest in compatibility. Safety specifications resulting from current accident research and new legislation were gone into, and the current state of measuring and technology in crash testing was outlined. [German] Aufgrund der Verbesserungen in der aktiven und passiven Sicherheit von Fahrzeugen weisen die Unfallstatistiken in vielen europaeischen Laendern eine erfreuliche Tendenz auf. Die Tagung wird sich mit den Moeglichkeiten der weiteren Optimierung der Verkehrssicherheit befassen. Die 'Crash-Tech 2001' will sich mit dem Motto 'Sind wir auf dem Weg zum World NCAP?' der Harmonisierung der Testvorschriften unter Einbeziehung der Kompatibilitaet widmen. Dazu werden Anforderungen an die Fahrzeugsicherheit diskutiert, die sich sowohl aus der aktuellen Unfallforschung als auch aus den Vorschriften ergeben. Weiterhin wird der aktuelle Stand der Mess- und Versuchstechnik im Unfallversuch vorgestellt. (orig.)

  7. System crash as dynamics of complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yi; Xiao, Gaoxi; Zhou, Jie; Wang, Yubo; Wang, Zhen; Kurths, Jürgen; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2016-10-18

    Complex systems, from animal herds to human nations, sometimes crash drastically. Although the growth and evolution of systems have been extensively studied, our understanding of how systems crash is still limited. It remains rather puzzling why some systems, appearing to be doomed to fail, manage to survive for a long time whereas some other systems, which seem to be too big or too strong to fail, crash rapidly. In this contribution, we propose a network-based system dynamics model, where individual actions based on the local information accessible in their respective system structures may lead to the "peculiar" dynamics of system crash mentioned above. Extensive simulations are carried out on synthetic and real-life networks, which further reveal the interesting system evolution leading to the final crash. Applications and possible extensions of the proposed model are discussed.

  8. Advances in crash dynamics for aircraft safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, M.; Marulo, F.; Abrate, S.

    2018-04-01

    This paper studies the ability of the fuselage's lower lobe to absorb the energy during a crash landing, where the introduction of the composite materials can improve the crash survivability thanks to the crushing capability of structural parts to limit the effects of deceleration on the occupants. Providing a protective shell around the occupants and minimizing the risks of injuries during and immediately after the crash in the post-crash regime is a safety requirement. This study consists of: (1) numerical and experimental investigations on small components to verify design concepts using high performance composite materials; (2) analyses of full scale crashes of fuselage lower lobes. This paper outlines an approach for demonstrating the crashworthiness characteristics of the airframe performing a drop test at low velocity impact to validate a numerical model obtained by assembling structural components and materials' properties previously obtained by testing coupons and sub-elements.

  9. Financial history and financial economics

    OpenAIRE

    Turner, John D.

    2014-01-01

    This essay looks at the bidirectional relationship between financial history and financial economics. It begins by giving a brief history of financial economics by outlining the main topics of interest to financial economists. It then documents and explains the increasing influence of financial economics upon financial history, and warns of the dangers of applying financial economics unthinkingly to the study of financial history. The essay proceeds to highlight the many insights that financi...

  10. Measuring systemic importance of financial institutions: An extreme value theory approach

    OpenAIRE

    Gravelle, Toni; Li, Fuchun

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we define a financial institution's contribution to financial systemic risk as the increase in financial systemic risk conditional on the crash of the financial institution. The higher the contribution is, the more systemically important is the institution for the system. Based on relevant but different measurements of systemic risk, we propose a set of market-based measures on the systemic importance of financial institutions, each designed to capture certain aspects of system...

  11. Response of equipment in nuclear power plants to airplane crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schalk, M.; Woelfel, H.

    1975-01-01

    The question has been posed concerning the effect of airplane crash on the safety of the equipment (pipes, vessels, etc.) mounted on the floors and walls inside the outer structure. This equipment is set into vibration by the crash-induced shaking of the outer building; the resulting stresses may be quite appreciable. The following questions arise: a) how large are these stresses. Can they, for example, be larger than the stresses produced by earthquake loading. b) What are the significant response parameters. c) Which methods of analysis and design criteria are reasonable. To what extent is it possible to apply the techniques which have become generally accepted for earthquake loading. The paper presents a preliminary answer to these questions pending further work in this area. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Simulations of Laboratory Astrophysics Experiments using the CRASH code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trantham, Matthew; Kuranz, Carolyn; Fein, Jeff; Wan, Willow; Young, Rachel; Keiter, Paul; Drake, R. Paul

    2015-11-01

    Computer simulations can assist in the design and analysis of laboratory astrophysics experiments. The Center for Radiative Shock Hydrodynamics (CRASH) at the University of Michigan developed a code that has been used to design and analyze high-energy-density experiments on OMEGA, NIF, and other large laser facilities. This Eulerian code uses block-adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) with implicit multigroup radiation transport, electron heat conduction and laser ray tracing. This poster will demonstrate some of the experiments the CRASH code has helped design or analyze including: Kelvin-Helmholtz, Rayleigh-Taylor, magnetized flows, jets, and laser-produced plasmas. This work is funded by the following grants: DEFC52-08NA28616, DE-NA0001840, and DE-NA0002032.

  13. Plane down in the city: Operation Crash and Surge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kann, Duane F; Draper, Thomas W

    2014-01-01

    This article is about the experiences gained from the largest full-scale exercise ever conducted in the State of Florida, specifically regarding the Orlando International Airport (MCO) venues. The exercise was centred on an airplane crashing into a hotel just outside of MCO property. The scenario clarified details regarding Incident Command and the unique jurisdictional responsibilities associated with a large-scale mass casualty incident. There were additional challenges with airline operations, walking wounded, and information sharing that provided valuable experiences toward enhancing emergency operations. This article also outlines information gained by the MCO "go team" that traveled to San Francisco following the crash of Asiana flight 214. This real-life incident shone a light on many of the strengths and opportunities found throughout the MCO exercise and this article shows the interrelationship of both of these invaluable experiences.

  14. Should large Spanish municipalities be financially compensated? Costs and benefits of being a capital/central municipality [WP-IEB

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch Roca, Núria; Espasa Queralt, Marta; Montolio, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyse the costs and benefits of being a capital or central municipality, where central costs are understood to be incurred specifically as a result of the problems large municipalities located at the centre of an urban agglomeration face and capital costs are understood to result from the presence of regional and/or central government institutions in the municipality. However, these two qualities might also be beneficial to municipalities, resulting in a direct increase in their ...

  15. Should large Spanish municipalities be financially compensated? Costs and benefits of being a capital/central municipality

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch Roca, Núria; Espasa Queralt, Marta; Montolio, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    We determine the costs and benefits of being a capital or central municipality, where central costs are understood to be incurred specifically as a result of the problems large municipalities located at the centre of an urban agglomeration face (including costs associated with social issues, immigration, commuting and diseconomies of scale) and capital costs result from the presence of regional and/or central government institutions in the municipality (loss of revenue or increase in expendit...

  16. Crash data modeling with a generalized estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Zhirui; Xu, Yueru; Lord, Dominique

    2018-05-11

    The investigation of relationships between traffic crashes and relevant factors is important in traffic safety management. Various methods have been developed for modeling crash data. In real world scenarios, crash data often display the characteristics of over-dispersion. However, on occasions, some crash datasets have exhibited under-dispersion, especially in cases where the data are conditioned upon the mean. The commonly used models (such as the Poisson and the NB regression models) have associated limitations to cope with various degrees of dispersion. In light of this, a generalized event count (GEC) model, which can be generally used to handle over-, equi-, and under-dispersed data, is proposed in this study. This model was first applied to case studies using data from Toronto, characterized by over-dispersion, and then to crash data from railway-highway crossings in Korea, characterized with under-dispersion. The results from the GEC model were compared with those from the Negative binomial and the hyper-Poisson models. The cases studies show that the proposed model provides good performance for crash data characterized with over- and under-dispersion. Moreover, the proposed model simplifies the modeling process and the prediction of crash data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Commercial truck crash injury severity analysis using gradient boosting data mining model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zijian; Lu, Pan; Lantz, Brenda

    2018-06-01

    Truck crashes contribute to a large number of injuries and fatalities. This study seeks to identify the contributing factors affecting truck crash severity using 2010 to 2016 North Dakota and Colorado crash data provided by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. To fulfill a gap of previous studies, broad considerations of company and driver characteristics, such as company size and driver's license class, along with vehicle types and crash characteristics are researched. Gradient boosting, a data mining technique, is applied to comprehensively analyze the relationship between crash severities and a set of heterogeneous risk factors. Twenty five variables were tested and 22 of them are identified as significant variables contributing to injury severities, however, top 11 variables account for more than 80% of injury forecasting. The relative variable importance analysis is conducted and furthermore marginal effects of all contributing factors are also illustrated in this research. Several factors such as trucking company attributes (e.g., company size), safety inspection values, trucking company commerce status (e.g., interstate or intrastate), time of day, driver's age, first harmful events, and registration condition are found to be significantly associated with crash injury severity. Even though most of the identified contributing factors are significant for all four levels of crash severity, their relative importance and marginal effect are all different. For the first time, trucking company and driver characteristics are proved to have significant impact on truck crash injury severity. Some of the results in this study reinforce previous studies' conclusions. Findings in this study can be helpful for transportation agencies to reduce injury severity, and develop efficient strategies to improve safety. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Involvement of unendorsed motorcycle operators in fatal crashes in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, 2005-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Susan M

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the role of unendorsed motorcycle operators in fatal motorcycle crashes and the interrelationships of endorsement status and motorcycle type with operator characteristics like riding impaired. Cases were drawn from a database tracking fatal crashes occurring within Cuyahoga County, Ohio, from 2005 to 2011. Analysis focused on 75 fatal motorcycle crashes in which the deceased motorcycle operators were male and coroner's reports, police crash reports, and license endorsement status were available. Analysis included comparison of means, chi square testing, and binary logistic regression. More than half of motorcyclists (53%) did not have motorcycle endorsements. Mean age of unendorsed riders was 36.8 years, compared to 44.2 years for endorsed riders. Motorcyclists were considered at fault in 69 percent of cases, most often due to reckless operation, failure to control, or speeding. Mean blood alcohol concentration for fatally injured motorcyclists was 0.06 percent. Marijuana was the most common drug identified in blood tests. Nonendorsement was associated with younger age, single-vehicle crash, and having a prior license suspension. Neither endorsement status nor bike type was associated with likelihood of testing positive for alcohol or drugs of abuse. Riders of sport motorcycles were more likely than cruiser/touring bike operators to be wearing helmets and less likely to be endorsed. The large proportion of unendorsed motorcyclists involved in fatal crashes in northeast Ohio highlights the need for more stringent licensing requirements that make it more difficult to ride without an endorsement and limit learner's permit renewals.

  19. Factors Contributing to Crashes among Young Drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyndel J. Bates

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Young drivers are the group of drivers most likely to crash. There are a number of factors that contribute to the high crash risk experienced by these drivers. While some of these factors are intrinsic to the young driver, such as their age, gender or driving skill, others relate to social factors and when and how often they drive. This article reviews the factors that affect the risk of young drivers crashing to enable a fuller understanding of why this risk is so high in order to assist in developing effective countermeasures.

  20. Multiscale Model Selection for High-Frequency Financial Data of a Large Tick Stock by Means of the Jensen–Shannon Metric

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianbiagio Curato

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling financial time series at different time scales is still an open challenge. The choice of a suitable indicator quantifying the distance between the model and the data is therefore of fundamental importance for selecting models. In this paper, we propose a multiscale model selection method based on the Jensen–Shannon distance in order to select the model that is able to better reproduce the distribution of price changes at different time scales. Specifically, we consider the problem of modeling the ultra high frequency dynamics of an asset with a large tick-to-price ratio. We study the price process at different time scales and compute the Jensen–Shannon distance between the original dataset and different models, showing that the coupling between spread and returns is important to model return distribution at different time scales of observation, ranging from the scale of single transactions to the daily time scale.

  1. Braking News: the Link between Crash Severity and Crash Avoidance Maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    the ordered-response nature of severity while allowing for changes in effects across severity levels. The data sample for estimation consists of single-vehicle crashes extracted from the General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the period 2005-2009. Results show the correlation between crash...... severity. These trends suggest that effort should be posed toward understanding the reaction mechanisms to different critical events, improving in-vehicle warning systems, promoting responsible driving behavior, and designing forgiving infrastructures....

  2. Car Crashes and Central Disorders of Hypersomnolence: A French Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Pizza

    Full Text Available Drowsiness compromises driving ability by reducing alertness and attentiveness, and delayed reaction times. Sleep-related car crashes account for a considerable proportion of accident at the wheel. Narcolepsy type 1 (NT1, narcolepsy type 2 (NT2 and idiopathic hypersomnia (IH are rare central disorders of hypersomnolence, the most severe causes of sleepiness thus being potential dangerous conditions for both personal and public safety with increasing scientific, social, and political attention. Our main objective was to assess the frequency of recent car crashes in a large cohort of patients affected with well-defined central disorders of hypersomnolence versus subjects from the general population.We performed a cross-sectional study in French reference centres for rare hypersomnia diseases and included 527 patients and 781 healthy subjects. All participants included needed to have a driving license, information available on potential accident events during the last 5 years, and on potential confounders; thus analyses were performed on 282 cases (71 IH, 82 NT2, 129 NT1 and 470 healthy subjects.Patients reported more frequently than healthy subjects the occurrence of recent car crashes (in the previous five years, a risk that was confirmed in both treated and untreated subjects at study inclusion (Untreated, OR = 2.21 95%CI = [1.30-3.76], Treated OR = 2.04 95%CI = [1.26-3.30], as well as in all disease categories, and was modulated by subjective sleepiness level (Epworth scale and naps. Conversely, the risk of car accidents of patients treated for at least 5 years was not different to healthy subjects (OR = 1.23 95%CI = [0.56-2.69]. Main risk factors were analogous in patients and healthy subjects.Patients affected with central disorders of hypersomnolence had increased risk of recent car crashes compared to subjects from the general population, a finding potentially reversed by long-term treatment.

  3. Volvo and Infiniti drivers' experiences with select crash avoidance technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braitman, Keli A; McCartt, Anne T; Zuby, David S; Singer, Jeremiah

    2010-06-01

    Vehicle-based crash avoidance systems can potentially reduce crashes, but success depends on driver acceptance and understanding. This study gauged driver use, experience, and acceptance among early adopters of select technologies. Telephone interviews were conducted in early 2009 with 380 owners of Volvo vehicles equipped with forward collision warning with autobrake, lane departure warning, side-view assist, and/or active bi-xenon headlights and 485 owners of Infiniti vehicles with lane departure warning/prevention. Most owners kept systems turned on most of the time, especially forward collision warning with autobrake and side-view assist. The exception was lane departure prevention; many owners were unaware they had it, and the system must be activated each time the vehicle is started. Most owners reported being safer with the technologies and would want them again on their next vehicles. Perceived false or unnecessary warnings were fairly common, particularly with side-view assist. Some systems were annoying, especially lane departure warning. Many owners reported safer driving behaviors such as greater use of turn signals (lane departure warning), increased following distance (forward collision warning), and checking side mirrors more frequently (side-view assist), but some reported driving faster at night (active headlights). Despite some unnecessary or annoying warnings, most Volvo and Infiniti owners use crash avoidance systems most of the time. Among early adopters, the first requirement of effective warning systems (that owners use the technology) seems largely met. Systems requiring activation by drivers for each trip are used less often. Owner experience with the latest technologies from other automobile manufacturers should be studied, as well as for vehicles on which technologies are standard (versus optional) equipment. The effectiveness of technologies in preventing and mitigating crashes and injuries, and user acceptance of interfaces, should be

  4. Homogenization of Vehicle Fleet Frontal Crash Pulses from 2000–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locey, Caitlin M.; Garcia-Espana, J. Felipe; Toh, Akira; Belwadi, Aditya; Arbogast, Kristy B.; Maltese, Matthew R.

    2012-01-01

    Full-scale vehicle crash tests are performed globally to assess vehicle structure and restraint system performance. The crash pulse, captured by accelerometers mounted within the occupant compartment, measures the motion of the vehicle during the impact event. From an occupant’s perspective, the crash pulse is the inertial event to which the vehicle’s restraint systems must respond in order to mitigate the forces and accelerations that act on a passenger, and thus reduce injury risk. The objective of this study was to quantify the characteristics of crash pulses for different vehicle types in the contemporary North American fleet, and delineate current trends in crash pulse evolution. NHTSA and Transport Canada crash test databases were queried for full-frontal rigid barrier crash tests of passenger vehicles model year 2000–2010 with impact angle equaling zero degrees. Acceleration-time histories were analyzed for all accelerometers attached to the vehicle structure within the occupant compartment. Custom software calculated the following crash pulse characteristics (CPCs): peak deceleration, time of peak deceleration, onset rate, pulse duration, and change in velocity. Vehicle body types were classified by adapting the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) methodology, and vehicles were assigned a generation start year in place of model year in order to more accurately represent structural change over time. 1094 vehicle crash tests with 2795 individual occupant compartment-mounted accelerometers were analyzed. We found greater peak decelerations and and shorter pulse durations across multiple vehicle types in newer model years as compared to older. For midsize passenger cars, large passenger cars, and large SUVs in 56 km/h rigid barrier tests, maximum deceleration increased by 0.40, 0.96, and 1.57 g/year respectively, and pulse duration decreased by 0.74, 1.87, and 2.51 ms/year. We also found that the crash pulse characteristics are becoming more homogeneous in

  5. Economic Cost of Crashes in Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    The Idaho Transportation Departments Office of Highway Safety contracted with Cambridge Systematics (CS) for an assessment of the feasibility of calculating the Idaho-specific economic and comprehensive costs associated with vehicle crashes. Resea...

  6. Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This 60 second Public Service Announcement is based on the October 2014 CDC Vital Signs report. Motor vehicle crashes are costly and preventable. Learn what can be done to help prevent motor vehicle injuries.

  7. Exploring cycle crash characteristics in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamzah A.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explains the cycle road crash trend, characteristics and injuries in Malaysia. It analyses the in-depth road crash investigation data collected by the Royal Malaysian Police which was made available to MIROS crash database. Fatality data was utilized due to its consistency. Cycle casualties reflected a continual downward pattern for year 2009 to 2014 in which the number of cycle crash involvement reduced by 49% and fatalities dropped by 42%. Among the prevalent factors of cycle fatalities are >60 age group, federal and state roads and straight road sections, rural and small towns, evening peak hours, and mainly involving cars and motorcycles. It is hoped that all these information would spark interests to improve cycle safety in Malaysia.

  8. Syncope and Motor Vehicle Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Numé, Anna-Karin; Gislason, Gunnar; Christiansen, Christine Benn

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE: Syncope may have serious consequences for traffic safety. Current clinical guideline recommendations on driving following syncope are primarily based on expert consensus. OBJECTIVE: To identify whether there is excess risk of motor vehicle crashes among patients with syncope compared...... vehicle crashes throughout the follow-up period. This study suggests that syncope should be considered as one of several factors in a broad assessment of fitness to drive....

  9. Relationship of Near-Crash/Crash Risk to Time Spent on a Cell Phone While Driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Charles M; Klauer, Sheila G; McClafferty, Julie A; Guo, Feng

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine in a naturalistic driving setting the dose-response relationship between cell phone usage while driving and risk of a crash or near crash. How is the increasing use of cell phones by drivers associated with overall near-crash/crash risk (i.e., during driving times both on and off the phone)? Day-to-day driving behavior of 105 volunteer subjects was monitored over a period of 1 year. A random sample was selected comprised of 4 trips from each month that each driver was in the study, and in-vehicle video was used to classify driver behavior. The proportion of driving time spent using a cell phone was estimated for each 3-month period and correlated with overall crash and near-crash rates for each period. Thus, it was possible to test whether changes in an individual driver's cell phone use over time were associated with changes in overall near-crash/crash risk. Drivers in the study spent 11.7% of their driving time interacting with a cell phone, primarily talking on the phone (6.5%) or simply holding the phone in their hand or lap (3.7%). The risk of a near-crash/crash event was approximately 17% higher when the driver was interacting with a cell phone, due primarily to actions of reaching for/answering/dialing, which nearly triples risk (relative risk = 2.84). However, the amount of driving time spent interacting with a cell phone did not affect a driver's overall near-crash/crash risk. Vehicle speeds within 6 s of the beginning of each call on average were 5-6 mph lower than speeds at other times. Results of this naturalistic driving study are consistent with the observation that increasing cell phone use in the general driving population has not led to increased crash rates. Although cell phone use can be distracting and crashes have occurred during this distraction, overall crash rates appear unaffected by changes in the rate of cell phone use, even for individual drivers. Drivers compensate somewhat for the distraction

  10. The trend of road traffic crashes at urban signalised intersection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhana Nasarrudin, Nurul; Razelan, Intan Suhana Mohd

    2018-04-01

    Road traffic crash is one of the main contributing factors for deaths in the world. Intersection is listed as the second road type which road crashes occurred frequently. Hence, the traffic light was installed to minimise the road crashes at intersection. However, the crashes are still occurring and arising. The objective of this study was to exhibit the trend of road crashes at the signalised intersections. The data of road crashes for the past 6 years were analysed using descriptive analysis. The results showed that the road traffic crashes at three- and four-legged signalised intersection recorded the increasing trend. In conclusion, this finding shows that the road traffic crashes for these types of signalised intersection in Malaysia is rising. It is also one the contributors to the increasing number of crashes in Malaysia. This finding will encourage the local authority to conduct awareness programs on the safety at the signalised intersection.

  11. Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

    Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

  12. What the 2008 stock market crash means for retirement security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, Barbara A; Smith, Karen E; Toder, Eric J

    2010-10-01

    The 2008 stock market crash raises concerns about retirement security, especially since the increased prevalence of 401(k) and similar retirement saving plans means that more Americans are now stakeholders in the equity market than in the past. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, this paper explores the ability of alternate future stock market scenarios to restore retirement assets. The authors find that those near retirement could fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Mid-career workers could fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.

  13. Crash test rating and likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injury in motor vehicle crashes: the new car assessment program side-impact crash test, 1998-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figler, Bradley D; Mack, Christopher D; Kaufman, Robert; Wessells, Hunter; Bulger, Eileen; Smith, Thomas G; Voelzke, Bryan

    2014-03-01

    The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) implemented side-impact crash testing on all new vehicles since 1998 to assess the likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injuries during a side-impact crash. Higher crash test rating is intended to indicate a safer car, but the real-world applicability of these ratings is unknown. Our objective was to determine the relationship between a vehicle's NCAP side-impact crash test rating and the risk of major thoracoabdominal injury among the vehicle's occupants in real-world side-impact motor vehicle crashes. The National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System contains detailed crash and injury data in a sample of major crashes in the United States. For model years 1998 to 2010 and crash years 1999 to 2010, 68,124 occupants were identified in the Crashworthiness Data System database. Because 47% of cases were missing crash severity (ΔV), multiple imputation was used to estimate the missing values. The primary predictor of interest was the occupant vehicle's NCAP side-impact crash test rating, and the outcome of interest was the presence of major (Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] score ≥ 3) thoracoabdominal injury. In multivariate analysis, increasing NCAP crash test rating was associated with lower likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injury at high (odds ratio [OR], 0.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-0.9; p NCAP side-impact crash test rating is associated with a lower likelihood of major thoracoabdominal trauma. Epidemiologic study, level III.

  14. Recession depression: mental health effects of the 2008 stock market crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McInerney, Melissa; Mellor, Jennifer M; Nicholas, Lauren Hersch

    2013-12-01

    Do sudden, large wealth losses affect mental health? We use exogenous variation in the interview dates of the 2008 Health and Retirement Study to assess the impact of large wealth losses on mental health among older U.S. adults. We compare cross-wave changes in wealth and mental health for respondents interviewed before and after the October 2008 stock market crash. We find that the crash reduced wealth and increased feelings of depression and use of antidepressant drugs, and that these effects were largest among respondents with high levels of stock holdings prior to the crash. These results suggest that sudden wealth losses cause immediate declines in subjective measures of mental health. However, we find no evidence that wealth losses lead to increases in clinically-validated measures of depressive symptoms or indicators of depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Safety Performance Evaluations for the Vehicle Based Movable Barriers Using Full Scale Crash Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Minsoo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims to develop a prototype of large-size movable barriers to protect roadside workers from incoming vehicles to the road work area with the following functions: maximization of work space in the right and left directions, convenient mobility, and minimization of impact without modification of the inside of movable barriers into traffic lanes and perform safety performance assessment on passengers through full scale crash tests. The large movable barrier was divided into folder type and telescope type and the development stage was now at the prototype phase. A full scale crash test was conducted prior to certification test at a level of 90%. The full scale crash test result showed that both types of folder type movable barrier and telescope type movable barrier satisfied the standard of the passenger safety performance evaluation at a level of 90%.

  16. Recession Depression: Mental Health Effects of the 2008 Stock Market Crash*

    Science.gov (United States)

    McInerney, Melissa; Mellor, Jennifer M.; Nicholas, Lauren Hersch

    2013-01-01

    Do sudden, large wealth losses affect mental health? We use exogenous variation in the interview dates of the 2008 Health and Retirement Study to assess the impact of large wealth losses on mental health among older U.S. adults. We compare cross-wave changes in wealth and mental health for respondents interviewed before and after the October 2008 stock market crash. We find that the crash reduced wealth and increased feelings of depression and use of antidepressant drugs, and that these effects were largest among respondents with high levels of stock holdings prior to the crash. These results suggest that sudden wealth losses cause immediate declines in subjective measures of mental health. However, we find no evidence that wealth losses lead to increases in clinically-validated measures of depressive symptoms or indicators of depression. PMID:24113241

  17. Vehicular crash data used to rank intersections by injury crash frequency and severity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Liu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article contains data on research conducted in “A double standard model for allocating limited emergency medical service vehicle resources ensuring service reliability” (Liu et al., 2016 [1]. The crash counts were sorted out from comprehensive crash records of over one thousand major signalized intersections in the city of Chicago from 2004 to 2010. For each intersection, vehicular crashes were counted by crash severity levels, including fatal, injury Types A, B, and C for major, moderate, and minor injury levels, property damage only (PDO, and unknown. The crash data was further used to rank intersections by equivalent injury crash frequency. The top 200 intersections with the highest number of crash occurrences identified based on crash frequency- and severity-based scenarios are shared in this brief. The provided data would be a valuable source for research in urban traffic safety analysis and could also be utilized to examine the effectiveness of traffic safety improvement planning and programming, intersection design enhancement, incident and emergency management, and law enforcement strategies.

  18. Barrier-relevant crash modification factors and average costs of crashes on arterial roads in Indiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yaotian; Tarko, Andrew P

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this study was to develop crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimate the average crash costs applicable to a wide range of road-barrier scenarios that involved three types of road barriers (concrete barriers, W-beam guardrails, and high-tension cable barriers) to produce a suitable basis for comparing barrier-oriented design alternatives and road improvements. The intention was to perform the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis allowed by the cross-sectional method and the crash data available in Indiana. To accomplish this objective and to use the available data efficiently, the effects of barrier were estimated on the frequency of barrier-relevant (BR) crashes, the types of harmful events and their occurrence during a BR crash, and the severity of BR crash outcomes. The harmful events component added depth to the analysis by connecting the crash onset with its outcome. Further improvement of the analysis was accomplished by considering the crash outcome severity of all the individuals involved in a crash and not just drivers, utilizing hospital data, and pairing the observations with and without road barriers along same or similar road segments to better control the unobserved heterogeneity. This study confirmed that the total number of BR crashes tended to be higher where medians had installed barriers, mainly due to collisions with barriers and, in some cases, with other vehicles after redirecting vehicles back to traffic. These undesirable effects of barriers were surpassed by the positive results of reducing cross-median crashes, rollover events, and collisions with roadside hazards. The average cost of a crash (unit cost) was reduced by 50% with cable barriers installed in medians wider than 50ft. A similar effect was concluded for concrete barriers and guardrails installed in medians narrower than 50ft. The studied roadside guardrails also reduced the unit cost by 20%-30%. Median cable barriers were found to be the most effective

  19. The Financial Crisis and White Collar Crime - Legislative and Policy Responses

    OpenAIRE

    Ryder, N.; Turksen, U.; Tucker, J.

    2017-01-01

    In September 2007, the collapse of the United States (US) sub-prime mortgage market resulted in the global meltdown of the financial markets. This in turn led to the collapse of many international financial institutions including Northern Rock, Bradford and Bingley, American Insurance Group, Freddy Mac, Fannie Mae and Lehman Brothers. The G20 countries responded with a plethora of financial stimulus packages aimed at combating the largest global financial problem since the Wall Street Crash i...

  20. Cross-country VFR crashes: pilot and contextual factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hare, David; Owen, Douglas

    2002-04-01

    General Aviation (GA) cross-country crashes, particularly those involving weather, continue to be a major source of fatalities, with a fatality rate more than four times greater than for GA crashes in general. There has been much speculation and little solid evidence on the causes of these crashes. We have designed a program of laboratory and database research into the causes of cross-country weather-related crashes including an analysis of air crashes in New Zealand between 1988 and 2000. There were 1308 reported occurrences in this period. We examined in detail 77 crashes where it could be determined that the aircraft was on a cross-country flight. In our first analysis we compared the characteristics of crashes that occurred in response to externally driven failures with crashes where the aircraft continued to be flown at the pilot's discretion up until the point of the crash. Clear differences were found for visibility, altitude, crash severity, and for several pilot characteristics. These differences are highly consistent with those found for previous research on pilot characteristics and crash involvement. In the second analysis we made comparisons between the weather-related and nonweather-related crashes in the discretionary control group and between subcategories of weather-related crashes. These data show that weather-related crashes occur further into the flight and closer to the planned destination than other kinds of cross-country crashes in GA. Pilots involved in these crashes are younger and have more recent flight time than pilots involved in other crashes. Their increased involvement cannot be explained simply by exposure (flight-time) but must be due to other factors.

  1. Driver sleepiness and risk of motor vehicle crash injuries: a population-based case control study in Fiji (TRIP 12).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Josephine; Kafoa, Berlin; Wainiqolo, Iris; Robinson, Elizabeth; McCaig, Eddie; Connor, Jennie; Jackson, Rod; Ameratunga, Shanthi

    2014-03-01

    Published studies investigating the role of driver sleepiness in road crashes in low and middle-income countries have largely focused on heavy vehicles. We investigated the contribution of driver sleepiness to four-wheel motor vehicle crashes in Fiji, a middle-income Pacific Island country. The population-based case control study included 131 motor vehicles involved in crashes where at least one person died or was hospitalised (cases) and 752 motor vehicles identified in roadside surveys (controls). An interviewer-administered questionnaire completed by drivers or proxies collected information on potential risks for crashes including sleepiness while driving, and factors that may influence the quantity or quality of sleep. Following adjustment for confounders, there was an almost six-fold increase in the odds of injury-involved crashes for vehicles driven by people who were not fully alert or sleepy (OR 5.7, 95%CI: 2.7, 12.3), or those who reported less than 6 h of sleep during the previous 24 h (OR 5.9, 95%CI: 1.7, 20.9). The population attributable risk for crashes associated with driving while not fully alert or sleepy was 34%, and driving after less than 6 h sleep in the previous 24 h was 9%. Driving by people reporting symptoms suggestive of obstructive sleep apnoea was not significantly associated with crash risk. Driver sleepiness is an important contributor to injury-involved four-wheel motor vehicle crashes in Fiji, highlighting the need for evidence-based strategies to address this poorly characterised risk factor for car crashes in less resourced settings. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2018-06-01

    Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Medical cost savings for participants and nonparticipants in health risk assessments, lifestyle management, disease management, depression management, and nurseline in a large financial services corporation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serxner, Seth; Alberti, Angela; Weinberger, Sarah

    2012-01-01

    To compare changes in medical costs between participants and nonparticipants in five different health and productivity management (HPM) programs. Quasi-experimental pre/post intervention study. A large financial services corporation. A cohort population of employees enrolled in medical plans (n  =  49,723) [corrected]. A comprehensive HPM program, which addressed health risks, acute and chronic conditions, and psychosocial disorders from 2005 to 2007. Incentives were used to encourage health risk assessment participation in years 2 and 3. Program participation and medical claims data were collected for members at the end of each program year to assess the change in total costs from the baseline period. Analysis . Multivariate analyses for participation categories were conducted comparing baseline versus program year cost differences, controlling for demographics. All participation categories yielded a lower cost increase compared to nonparticipation and a positive return on investment (ROI) for years 2 and 3, resulting in a 2.45∶1 ROI for the combined program years. Medical cost savings exceeded program costs in a wide variety of health and productivity management programs by the second year.

  4. Young driver education programs that build resilience have potential to reduce road crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senserrick, Teresa; Ivers, Rebecca; Boufous, Soufiane; Chen, Huei-Yang; Norton, Robyn; Stevenson, Mark; van Beurden, Eric; Zask, Avigdor

    2009-11-01

    The research aimed to explore associations between participation in 2 education programs for school-based learner drivers and subsequent road traffic offenses and crashes among a large cohort of newly licensed drivers. DRIVE is a prospective cohort study of 20822 first-year drivers aged 17 to 24 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Participants completed a detailed questionnaire and consented to data linkage in 2003-2004. Questionnaire items included year of participation in 2 specific education programs: a 1-day workshop-only program focusing on driving risks ("driver-focused") and a whole-of-community program also including a 1-day workshop but also longer term follow-up activities and a broader focus on reducing risk-taking and building resilience ("resilience-focused"). Survey data were subsequently linked to police-reported crash and offense data for 1996-2005. Poisson regression models that adjusted for multiple confounders were created to explore offenses and crashes as a driver (dichotomized as 0 vs >or=1) after program participation. Offenses did not differ between groups; however, whereas the driver-focused program was not associated with reduced crash risk, the resilience-focused program was associated with a 44% reduced relative risk for crash (0.56 [95% confidence interval: 0.34-0.93]). The large effect size observed and complementary findings from a comparable randomized, controlled trial in the United States suggest programs that focus more generally on reducing risks and building resilience have the potential to reduce crashes. A large, representative, randomized, controlled trial is urgently needed to confirm road safety benefits and ensure evidence-based spending and practitioner recommendations in this field.

  5. Examination of factors associated in motorcycle crashes in work zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the factors associated with motorcycle crashes in work zones. This analysis was completed : through the collection and inspection of three types of data: 1) practices used throughout the country on this topic, : 2) crash reports a...

  6. School start times and teenage driver motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    There is substantial evidence that lack of sleep is a significant factor in motor vehicle crashes experienced by teenage drivers. This report examines the hypothesis that a later high school start time may reduce crash rates by reducing the interfere...

  7. Linear regression crash prediction models : issues and proposed solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-01

    The paper develops a linear regression model approach that can be applied to : crash data to predict vehicle crashes. The proposed approach involves novice data aggregation : to satisfy linear regression assumptions; namely error structure normality ...

  8. A Study of Transport Airplane Crash-Resistant Fuel Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robertson, S

    2002-01-01

    ...), of transport airplane crash-resistant fuel system (CRFS). The report covers the historical studies related to aircraft crash fires and fuel containment concepts undertaken by the FAA, NASA, and the U.S...

  9. Taxonomy of Older Driver Behaviors and Crash Risk : Appendix C

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    This projects objectives were to identify risky behaviors, driving habits, and exposure patterns that have been shown to increase the likelihood of crash involvement among older drivers; and to classify these crash-contributing factors according t...

  10. Evaluation of safety ratings of roads based on frontal crashes with known crash pulse and injury outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stigson, H

    2009-06-01

    The objective in this study, using data from crashed cars fitted with on-board crash pulse recorders, was to present differences in average crash severity, distribution of crash severity, and injury outcomes, based on an independent safety rating of roads, also taking road type and speed limit into consideration. Furthermore, the objective was to evaluate differences in injury risk, based on the distribution of crash severity. The investigation included both frontal two-vehicle crashes and single-vehicle crashes with known injury outcome. In total, 209 real-world crashes involving cars fitted with crash pulse recorders were included. For all crashes, average mean acceleration and change of velocity of the vehicle acceleration pulse were measured and calculated. All crash spots were classified according to an independent road safety rating program (European Road Assessment Programme Road Protection Score), where the safety quality of roads is rated in relation to posted speed limits. The crash severity and injury outcome in crashes that occurred on roads with good safety ratings were compared with crashes on roads with poor safety ratings. The data were also divided into subcategories according to posted speed limit and road type, to evaluate whether there was a difference in crash severity and injury outcome within the categories. In total, crash severity was statistically significantly lower in crashes occurring on roads with good safety ratings than in crashes occurring on roads with poor safety ratings. It was found that crash severity and injury risk were lower on roads with good safety ratings with a speed limit of above 90 km/h compared with roads with poor safety ratings, irrespective of speed limit. On the other hand, crash severity was higher on roads with good safety ratings with speed limit of 70 km/h than on roads with poor safety ratings with the same speed limit. Though it was found that a higher speed limit resulted in higher crash severity on roads

  11. Pre-crash scenarios at road junctions: A clustering method for car crash data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitsche, Philippe; Thomas, Pete; Stuetz, Rainer; Welsh, Ruth

    2017-10-01

    Given the recent advancements in autonomous driving functions, one of the main challenges is safe and efficient operation in complex traffic situations such as road junctions. There is a need for comprehensive testing, either in virtual simulation environments or on real-world test tracks. This paper presents a novel data analysis method including the preparation, analysis and visualization of car crash data, to identify the critical pre-crash scenarios at T- and four-legged junctions as a basis for testing the safety of automated driving systems. The presented method employs k-medoids to cluster historical junction crash data into distinct partitions and then applies the association rules algorithm to each cluster to specify the driving scenarios in more detail. The dataset used consists of 1056 junction crashes in the UK, which were exported from the in-depth "On-the-Spot" database. The study resulted in thirteen crash clusters for T-junctions, and six crash clusters for crossroads. Association rules revealed common crash characteristics, which were the basis for the scenario descriptions. The results support existing findings on road junction accidents and provide benchmark situations for safety performance tests in order to reduce the possible number parameter combinations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Aftershocks following crash of currency exchange rate: The case of RUB/USD in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usmanova, Vasilya; Lysogorskiy, Yury V.; Abe, Sumiyoshi

    2018-02-01

    The dynamical behavior of the currency exchange rate after its large-scale catastrophe is discussed through a case study of the rate of Russian rubles to US dollars after its crash in 2014. It is shown that, similarly to the case of the stock market crash, the relaxation is characterized by a power law, which is in analogy with the Omori-Utsu law for earthquake aftershocks. The waiting-time distribution is found to also obey a power law. Furthermore, the event-event correlation is discussed, and the aging phenomenon and scaling property are observed. Comments are made on (non-)Markovianity of the aftershock process and on a possible relevance of glassy dynamics to the market system after the crash.

  13. Influence of equilibrium shear flow on peeling-ballooning instability and edge localized mode crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xi, P. W.; Xu, X. Q.; Wang, X. G.; Xia, T. Y.

    2012-01-01

    The E × B shear flow plays a dual role on peeling-ballooning modes and their subsequently triggered edge localized mode (ELM) crashes. On one hand, the flow shear can stabilize high-n modes and twist the mode in the poloidal direction, constraining the mode's radial extent and reducing the size of the corresponding ELM. On the other hand, the shear flow also introduces the Kelvin-Helmholtz drive, which can destabilize peeling-ballooning modes. The overall effect of equilibrium shear flow on peeling-ballooning modes and ELM crashes depends on the competition between these two effects. When the flow shear is either small or very large, it can reduce ELM size. However, for moderate values of flow shear, the destabilizing effect from the Kelvin-Helmholtz term is dominant and leads to larger ELM crashes.

  14. Gasoline Prices and Their Relationship to Drunk-Driving Crashes

    OpenAIRE

    Guangqing Chi; Xuan Zhou; Timothy McClure; Paul Gilbert; Arthur Cosby; Li Zhang; Angela Robertson; David Levinson

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between changing gasoline prices and drunk-driving crashes. Specifically, we examine the effects of gasoline prices on drunk-driving crashes in Mississippi by age, gender, and race from 2004Ð2008, a period experiencing great fluctuation in gasoline prices. An exploratory visualization by graphs shows that higher gasoline prices are generally associated with fewer drunk-driving crashes. Higher gasoline prices depress drunk- driving crashes among younger...

  15. Financial Stress and Financial Counseling: Helping College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britt, Sonya L.; Canale, Anthony; Fernatt, Fred; Stutz, Kristen; Tibbetts, Racquel

    2015-01-01

    This study had two distinct purposes. First, to determine the predictors of financial stress among college students who sought free peer-based financial counseling from a large Midwestern university (N = 675). Secondly, to determine the effectiveness of the particular financial counseling center from a subsample of those who sought help (N = 97).…

  16. Conscientious personality and young drivers’ crash risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehsani, Johnathon P.; Li, Kaigang; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Tree-McGrath, Cheyenne Fox; Perlus, Jessamyn; O’Brien, Fearghal; Klauer, Sheila G.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Personality characteristics are associated with many risk behaviors. However, the relationship between personality traits, risky driving behavior, and crash risk is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between personality, risky driving behavior and crashes and near-crashes, using naturalistic driving research methods. Method Participants’ driving exposure, kinematic risky driving (KRD), high-risk secondary task engagement, and the frequency of crashes and near-crashes (CNC) were assessed over the first 18 months of licensure using naturalistic driving methods. A personality survey (NEO-Five Factor Inventory) was administered at baseline. The association between personality characteristics, KRD rate, secondary task engagement rate and CNC rate was estimated using a linear regression model. Mediation analysis was conducted to examine if participants’ KRD rate or secondary task engagement rate mediated the relationship between personality and CNC. Data were collected as part of the Naturalistic Teen Driving Study. Results Conscientiousness was marginally negatively associated with CNC (path c = −0.034, p = .09) and both potential mediators KRD (path a = −0.040, p = .09) and secondary task engagement while driving (path a = −0.053, p = .03). KRD, but not secondary task engagement, was found to mediate (path b = 0.376, p = .02) the relationship between conscientiousness and CNC (path c’ = −0.025, p = .20). Conclusions Using objective measures of driving behavior and a widely used personality construct, these findings present a causal pathway through which personality and risky driving are associated with CNC. Specifically, more conscientious teenage drivers engaged in fewer risky driving maneuvers, suffered fewer CNC. Practical Applications Part of the variability in crash-risk observed among newly licensed teenage drivers can be explained by personality. Parents and driving instructors may take teenage

  17. Conscientious personality and young drivers' crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehsani, Johnathon P; Li, Kaigang; Simons-Morton, Bruce G; Fox Tree-McGrath, Cheyenne; Perlus, Jessamyn G; O'Brien, Fearghal; Klauer, Sheila G

    2015-09-01

    Personality characteristics are associated with many risk behaviors. However, the relationship between personality traits, risky driving behavior, and crash risk is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between personality, risky driving behavior, and crashes and near-crashes, using naturalistic driving research methods. Participants' driving exposure, kinematic risky driving (KRD), high-risk secondary task engagement, and the frequency of crashes and near-crashes (CNC) were assessed over the first 18months of licensure using naturalistic driving methods. A personality survey (NEO-Five Factor Inventory) was administered at baseline. The association between personality characteristics, KRD rate, secondary task engagement rate, and CNC rate was estimated using a linear regression model. Mediation analysis was conducted to examine if participants' KRD rate or secondary task engagement rate mediated the relationship between personality and CNC. Data were collected as part of the Naturalistic Teen Driving Study. Conscientiousness was marginally negatively associated with CNC (path c=-0.034, p=.09) and both potential mediators KRD (path a=-0.040, p=.09) and secondary task engagement while driving (path a=-0.053, p=.03). KRD, but not secondary task engagement, was found to mediate (path b=0.376, p=.02) the relationship between conscientiousness and CNC (path c'=-0.025, p=.20). Using objective measures of driving behavior and a widely used personality construct, these findings present a causal pathway through which personality and risky driving are associated with CNC. Specifically, more conscientious teenage drivers engaged in fewer risky driving maneuvers, and suffered fewer CNC. Part of the variability in crash risk observed among newly licensed teenage drivers can be explained by personality. Parents and driving instructors may take teenage drivers' personality into account when providing guidance, and establishing norms and

  18. The combined benefits of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in preventing crashes and reducing crash severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Matteo; Kullgren, Anders; Tingvall, Claes

    2016-01-01

    Several studies have reported the benefits of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in reducing injury crashes, due to improved stability and braking performance. Both aspects may prevent crashes but may also reduce the crash severity when a collision occurs. However, it is still unknown to what extent the reductions in injury crashes with ABS may be due to a combination of these mechanisms. Swedish hospital and police reports (2003-2012) were used. The risk for permanent medical impairment (RPMI) was calculated, showing the risk of at least 1 or 10% permanent medical impairment. In total, 165 crashes involving ABS-equipped motorcycles were compared with 500 crashes with similar motorcycles without ABS. The analysis was performed in 3 steps. First, the reduction in emergency care visits with ABS was calculated using an induced exposure approach. Secondly, the injury mitigating effects of ABS were investigated. The mean RPMI 1+ and RPMI 10+ were analyzed for different crash types. The distributions of impairing injuries (PMI 1+) and severely impairing injuries (PMI 10+) were also analyzed. In the third step, the total reduction of PMI 1+ and PMI 10+ injured motorcyclists was calculated by combining the reductions found in the previous steps. An additional analysis of combined braking systems (CBS) together with ABS was also performed. The results showed that emergency care visits were reduced by 47% with ABS. In the second step, it was found that the mean RPMI 1+ and RPMI 10+ with ABS were 15 and 37% lower, respectively. Finally, the third step showed that the total reductions in terms of crash avoidance and mitigation of PMI 1+ and PMI 10+ injured motorcyclists with ABS were 67 and 55%, respectively. However, PMI 1+ and PMI 10+ leg injuries were not reduced by ABS to the same extent. Indications were found suggesting that the benefits of ABS together with CBS may be greater than ABS alone. This article indicated that motorcycle ABS reduced impairing injuries

  19. Analysis of powered two-wheeler crashes in Italy by classification trees and rules discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montella, Alfonso; Aria, Massimo; D'Ambrosio, Antonio; Mauriello, Filomena

    2012-11-01

    Aim of the study was the analysis of powered two-wheeler (PTW) crashes in Italy in order to detect interdependence as well as dissimilarities among crash characteristics and provide insights for the development of safety improvement strategies focused on PTWs. At this aim, data mining techniques were used to analyze the data relative to the 254,575 crashes involving PTWs occurred in Italy in the period 2006-2008. Classification trees analysis and rules discovery were performed. Tree-based methods are non-linear and non-parametric data mining tools for supervised classification and regression problems. They do not require a priori probabilistic knowledge about the phenomena under studying and consider conditional interactions among input data. Rules discovery is the identification of sets of items (i.e., crash patterns) that occur together in a given event (i.e., a crash in our study) more often than they would if they were independent of each other. Thus, the method can detect interdependence among crash characteristics. Due to the large number of patterns considered, both methods suffer from an extreme risk of finding patterns that appear due to chance alone. To overcome this problem, in our study we randomly split the sample data in two data sets and used well-established statistical practices to evaluate the statistical significance of the results. Both the classification trees and the rules discovery were effective in providing meaningful insights about PTW crash characteristics and their interdependencies. Even though in several cases different crash characteristics were highlighted, the results of the two the analysis methods were never contradictory. Furthermore, most of the findings of this study were consistent with the results of previous studies which used different analytical techniques, such as probabilistic models of crash injury severity. Basing on the analysis results, engineering countermeasures and policy initiatives to reduce PTW injuries and

  20. Effectiveness of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in reducing crashes, the first cross-national study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Matteo; Strandroth, Johan; Kullgren, Anders; Tingvall, Claes; Fildes, Brian

    2015-01-01

    This study set out to evaluate the effectiveness of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in reducing real-life crashes. Since the European Parliament has voted on legislation making ABS mandatory on all new motorcycles over 125 cc from 2016, the fitment rate in Europe is likely to increase in the coming years. Though previous research has focused on mostly large displacement motorcycles, this study used police reports from Spain (2006-2009), Italy (2009), and Sweden (2003-2012) in order to analyze a wide range of motorcycles, including scooters, and compare countries with different motorcycling habits. The statistical analysis used odds ratio calculations with an induced exposure approach. Previous research found that head-on crashes were the least ABS-affected crash type and was therefore used as the nonsensitive crash type for ABS in these calculations. The same motorcycle models, with and without ABS, were compared and the calculations were carried out for each country separately. Crashes involving only scooters were further analyzed. The effectiveness of motorcycle ABS in reducing injury crashes ranged from 24% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12-36) in Italy to 29% (95% CI, 20-38) in Spain, and 34% (95% CI, 16-52) in Sweden. The reductions in severe and fatal crashes were even greater, at 34% (95% CI, 24-44) in Spain and 42% (95% CI, 23-61) in Sweden. The overall reductions of crashes involving ABS-equipped scooters (at least 250 cc) were 27% (95% CI, 12-42) in Italy and 22% (95% CI, 2-42) in Spain. ABS on scooters with at least a 250 cc engine reduced severe and fatal crashes by 31% (95% CI, 12-50), based on Spanish data alone. At this stage, there is more than sufficient scientific-based evidence to support the implementation of ABS on all motorcycles, even light ones. Further research should aim at understanding the injury mitigating effects of motorcycle ABS, possibly in combination with combined braking systems.

  1. Pre-crash system validation with PRESCAN and VEHIL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gietelink, O.J.; Verburg, D.J.; Labibes, K.; Oostendorp, A.F.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents the tools for design and validation of Pre-Crash Systems: the software tool PRE-crash SCenario ANalyzer (PRESCAN) and the VEhicle-Hardware-In-the-Loop (VEHIL) facility. PRESCAN allows to investigate a pre-crash scenario in simulation. This scenario can then be compared with tests

  2. Analysis of traffic crash data in Kentucky : 2004-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    The report documents an analysis of traffic crash data in Kentucky for the years of 2004 through 2008. A primary objective of this study was to determine average crash statistics for Kentucky highways. Average and critical numbers and rates of crashe...

  3. Financial Statements

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Financial Statements and accompanying notes provided on .... to good governance principles. there is the risk that ...... responsibilities of the centre's internal auditor includes reviewing internal controls, including accounting and financial.

  4. Responding to the Housing and Financial Crises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scanlon, Kathleen; Lunde, Jens; Whitehead, Christine

    2011-01-01

    The long period of house price growth in markets across the world ended with the US and global financial crisis of 2007/08. The crisis and the consequent recession had profound effects on mortgage market actors – including households, institutions and governments – in most advanced economies......, whether or not they participated in this rapid house price growth. Many of the trends observed during the boom, especially the innovations in financial instruments, were reversed. This paper presents evidence on how mortgage markets and stakeholders responded in the initial period after the crash...

  5. Financial Derivatives

    OpenAIRE

    Janečková, Alena

    2011-01-01

    1 Abstract/ Financial derivatives The purpose of this thesis is to provide an introduction to financial derivatives which has been, from the legal perspective, described in a not satisfactory manner as quite little literature that can be found about this topic. The main objectives of this thesis are to define the term "financial derivatives" and its particular types and to analyse legal nature of these financial instruments. The last objective is to try to draft future law regulation of finan...

  6. Financial Literacy and Financial Education: Review and Policy Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Annamaria Lusardi

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, as workers have gained an unprecedented degree of control over their pensions and savings, the importance of financial literacy and financial education has increased considerably. Large changes in the structure of financial markets, labor markets, and demographics in developed countries have led to this change. Consumers have a bewildering array of complex financial products – from reverse mortgages to annuities – to choose from, making saving decisions increasingly complex. ...

  7. Lower extremity finite element model for crash simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schauer, D.A.; Perfect, S.A.

    1996-03-01

    A lower extremity model has been developed to study occupant injury mechanisms of the major bones and ligamentous soft tissues resulting from vehicle collisions. The model is based on anatomically correct digitized bone surfaces of the pelvis, femur, patella and the tibia. Many muscles, tendons and ligaments were incrementally added to the basic bone model. We have simulated two types of occupant loading that occur in a crash environment using a non-linear large deformation finite element code. The modeling approach assumed that the leg was passive during its response to the excitation, that is, no active muscular contraction and therefore no active change in limb stiffness. The approach recognized that the most important contributions of the muscles to the lower extremity response are their ability to define and modify the impedance of the limb. When nonlinear material behavior in a component of the leg model was deemed important to response, a nonlinear constitutive model was incorporated. The accuracy of these assumptions can be verified only through a review of analysis results and careful comparison with test data. As currently defined, the model meets the objective for which it was created. Much work remains to be done, both from modeling and analysis perspectives, before the model can be considered complete. The model implements a modeling philosophy that can accurately capture both kinematic and kinetic response of the lower limb. We have demonstrated that the lower extremity model is a valuable tool for understanding the injury processes and mechanisms. We are now in a position to extend the computer simulation to investigate the clinical fracture patterns observed in actual crashes. Additional experience with this model will enable us to make a statement on what measures are needed to significantly reduce lower extremity injuries in vehicle crashes. 6 refs.

  8. A hot spot analysis of teenage crashes : an assessment of crashes in Houston, Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Today, states have enacted laws to ensure that teen drivers are more skilled and drive safely. The result is : fewer accidents. However, in previous research, when teen crashes were mapped, certain streets and areas : appeared to have more accidents ...

  9. Patterns of severe injury in pediatric car crash victims: Crash Injury Research Engineering Network database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J Kristine; Jing, Yuezhou; Wang, Stewart; Ehrlich, Peter F

    2006-02-01

    Motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) account for 50% of pediatric trauma. Safety improvements are typically tested with child crash dummies using an in vitro model. The Crash Injury Research Engineering Network (CIREN) provides an in vivo validation process. Previous research suggest that children in lateral crashes or front-seat locations have higher Injury Severity Scale scores and lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores than those in frontal-impact crashes. However, specific injury patterns and crash characteristics have not been characterized. Data were collected from the CIREN multidisciplinary crash reconstruction network (10 pediatric trauma centers). Injuries were examined with regard to crash direction (frontal/lateral), restraint use, seat location, and change in velocity at impact (DeltaV). Injuries were limited to Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores of 3 or higher and included head, thoracic, abdominal, pelvic, spine, and long bone (orthopedic) injuries. Standard age groupings (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-18 years) were used. Statistical analyses used Fisher's Exact test and multiple logistic regressions. Four hundred seventeen MVCs with 2500 injuries were analyzed (males = 219, females = 198). Controlling for DeltaV and age, children in lateral-impact crashes (n = 232) were significantly more likely to suffer severe injuries to the head and thorax as compared with children in frontal crashes (n = 185), who were more likely to suffer severe spine and orthopedic injuries. Children in a front-seat (n = 236) vs those in a back-seat (n = 169) position had more injuries to the thoracic (27% vs 17%), abdominal (21% vs 13%), pelvic (11% vs 1%), and orthopedic (28% vs 10%) regions (P < .05 for all). Seat belts were protective for pelvic (5% vs 12% unbelted) and orthopedic (15% vs 40%) injuries (odds ratio = 3, P < .01 for both). A reproducible pattern of injury is noted for children involved in lateral-impact crashes characterized by head and chest injuries. The Injury Severity

  10. Sleep-related vehicle crashes on low speed roads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filtness, A J; Armstrong, K A; Watson, A; Smith, S S

    2017-02-01

    Very little is known about the characteristics of sleep related (SR) crashes occurring on low speed roads compared with current understanding of the role of sleep in crashes occurring on high speed roads e.g. motorways. To address this gap, analyses were undertaken to identify the differences and similarities between (1) SR crashes occurring on roads with low (≤60km/h) and high (≥100km/h) speed limits, and (2) SR crashes and not-SR crashes occurring on roads with low speed limits. Police reports of all crashes occurring on low and high speed roads over a ten year period between 2000 and 2009 were examined for Queensland, Australia. Attending police officers identified all crash attributes, including 'fatigue/fell asleep', which indicates that the police believe the crash to have a causal factor relating to falling asleep, sleepiness due to sleep loss, time of day, or fatigue. Driver or rider involvement in crashes was classified as SR or not-SR. All crash-associated variables were compared using Chi-square tests (Cramer's V=effect size). A series of logistic regression was performed, with driver and crash characteristics as predictors of crash category. A conservative alpha level of 0.001 determined statistical significance. There were 440,855 drivers or riders involved in a crash during this time; 6923 (1.6%) were attributed as SR. SR crashes on low speed roads have similar characteristics to those on high speed roads with young (16-24y) males consistently over represented. SR crashes on low speed roads are noticeably different to not-SR crashes in the same speed zone in that male and young novice drivers are over represented and outcomes are more severe. Of all the SR crashes identified, 41% occurred on low speed roads. SR crashes are not confined to high speed roads. Low speed SR crashes warrant specific investigation because they occur in densely populated areas, exposing a greater number of people to risk and have more severe outcomes than not-SR crashes

  11. Financial Literacy and Financial Behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sayinzoga, Aussi; Bulte, Erwin H.; Lensink, Robert

    2016-01-01

    We organise a field experiment with smallholder farmers in Rwanda to measure the impact of financial literacy training on financial knowledge and behaviour. The training increased financial literacy of participants, changed their savings and borrowing behaviour and had a positive effect on the

  12. Motorcycle crash causes and outcomes : pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    The number of motorcyclist crash-related fatalities has more than doubled during the past 10 years. In the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) P.L. 109-59, Congress directed the Secretary ...

  13. Child passengers injured in motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Eduardo; Kelley-Baker, Tara

    2015-02-01

    During 2010, 171,000 children aged 0-14 were injured in motor vehicle crashes. Despite the severity of the problem, research has been limited, and most of what we know about these children emanates from fatal crash databases. Using information from the General Estimates System, this effort examines the occurrence of non-fatal crashes among children aged 0-14 over the last decade. We found that about 1% of the non-injured children in the file had been driven by a driver who was positive for alcohol. This percentage climbed to about 2% among children who had suffered injuries. Compared with the proportion of alcohol-positive drivers at the time of the crash, the proportion of drivers who sped or failed to obey a traffic signal was significantly higher. The finding that drinking and driving with children did not decrease over time questions the adequacy of the extant child endangerment laws. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Vital Signs-Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-10-07

    This podcast is based on the October 2014 CDC Vital Signs report. Motor vehicle crashes are costly and preventable. Learn what can be done to help prevent motor vehicle injuries.  Created: 10/7/2014 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 10/7/2014.

  15. Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-10-07

    This 60 second Public Service Announcement is based on the October 2014 CDC Vital Signs report. Motor vehicle crashes are costly and preventable. Learn what can be done to help prevent motor vehicle injuries.  Created: 10/7/2014 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 10/7/2014.

  16. Improvement of crash compatibility between cars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huibers, J.A.H.M.; Faerber, E.; Cesari, D.; Hobbs, A.C.; Kampen, B. van; Paez, J.; Wykes, N.J.

    1998-01-01

    This paper will provide an overview of the research work of the European Enhanced Vehicle-safety Committee (EEVC) in the field of crash compatibility between passenger cars. Since July 1997 the EC Commission is partly funding the research work of EEVC. The running period of this project will be two

  17. Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This 60 second public service announcement is based on the July 2016 CDC Vital Signs report. In the U.S., about 90 people die in motor vehicle crashes each day and thousands more are injured, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in direct medical costs each year. Learn what you can do to stay safe.

  18. 2010 traffic crash facts annual report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The death rate on Nebraska roadways during 2010 was .97 persons killed per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. This is the lowest death rate recorded since the state first began keeping motor vehicle crash statistics in 1936. The trend of declining d...

  19. Using linked data to evaluate hospital charges for motor vehicle crash victims in Pennsylvania : Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES) linked data demonstration project

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-10-01

    The report uses police-reported crash data that have been linked to hospital discharge data to evaluate charges for hospital care provided to motor vehicle crash victims in Pennsylvania. Approximately 17,000 crash victims were hospitalized in Pennsyl...

  20. How similar are two-unit bicycle and motorcycle crashes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haworth, Narelle; Debnath, Ashim Kumar

    2013-09-01

    This paper explores the similarities and differences between bicycle and motorcycle crashes with other motor vehicles. If similar treatments can be effective for both bicycle and motorcycle crashes, then greater benefits in terms of crash costs saved may be possible for the same investment in treatments. To reduce the biases associated with under-reporting of these crashes to police, property damage and minor injury crashes were excluded. The most common crash type for both bicycles (31.1%) and motorcycles (24.5%) was intersection from adjacent approaches. Drivers of other vehicles were coded most at fault in the majority of two-unit bicycle (57.0%) and motorcycle crashes (62.7%). The crash types, patterns of fault and factors affecting fault were generally similar for bicycle and motorcycle crashes. This confirms the need to combat the factors contributing to failure of other drivers to yield right of way to two-wheelers, and suggest that some of these actions should prove beneficial to the safety of both motorized and non-motorized two-wheelers. In contrast, child bicyclists were more often at fault, particularly in crashes involving a vehicle leaving the driveway or footpath. The greater reporting of violations by riders and drivers in motorcycle crashes also deserves further investigation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Direct medical costs of motorcycle crashes in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, Daniel; Wasserstein, David; Nathens, Avery B; Bai, Yu Qing; Redelmeier, Donald A; Wodchis, Walter P

    2017-11-20

    There is no reliable estimate of costs incurred by motorcycle crashes. Our objective was to calculate the direct costs of all publicly funded medical care provided to individuals after motorcycle crashes compared with automobile crashes. We conducted a population-based, matched cohort study of adults in Ontario who presented to hospital because of a motorcycle or automobile crash from 2007 through 2013. For each case, we identified 1 control absent a motor vehicle crash during the study period. Direct costs for each case and control were estimated in 2013 Canadian dollars from the payer perspective using methodology that links health care use to individuals over time. We calculated costs attributable to motorcycle and automobile crashes within 2 years using a difference-in-differences approach. We identified 26 831 patients injured in motorcycle crashes and 281 826 injured in automobile crashes. Mean costs attributable to motorcycle and automobile crashes were $5825 and $2995, respectively ( p motorcycle crashes compared with automobile crashes (2194 injured annually/100 000 registered motorcycles v. 718 injured annually/100 000 registered automobiles; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 3.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8 to 3.3, p motorcycles v. 12 severe injuries annually/100 000 registered automobiles; IRR 10.4, 95% CI 8.3 to 13.1, p motorcycle in Ontario costs the public health care system 6 times the amount of each registered automobile. Medical costs may provide an additional incentive to improve motorcycle safety. © 2017 Joule Inc. or its licensors.

  2. Under-reporting of road traffic crash data in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salifu, Mohammed; Ackaah, Williams

    2012-01-01

    Having reliable estimates of the shortfalls in road traffic crash data is an important prerequisite for setting more realistic targets for crash/casualty reduction programmes and for a better appreciation of the socio-economic significance of road traffic crashes. This study was carried out to establish realistic estimates of the overall shortfall (under-reporting) in the official crash statistics in Ghana over an eight-year period (1997-2004). Surveys were conducted at hospitals and among drivers to generate relevant alternative data which were then matched against records in police crash data files and the official database. Overall shortfalls came from two sources, namely, 'non-reporting' and 'under-recording'. The results show that the level of non-reporting varied significantly with the severity of the crash from about 57% for property damage crashes through 8% for serious injury crashes to 0% for fatal crashes. Crashes involving cyclists and motorcyclists were also substantially non-reported. Under-recording on the other hand declined significantly over the period from an average of 37% in 1997-1998 to 27% in 2003-2004. Thus, the official statistics of road traffic crashes in Ghana are subject to significant shortfalls that need to be accounted for. Correction factors have therefore been suggested for adjusting the official data.

  3. The Pattern of Road Traffic Crashes in South East Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rad, Mahdieh; Martiniuk, Alexandra Lc; Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza; Mohammadi, Mahdi; Rashedi, Fariborz; Ghasemi, Ardavan

    2016-09-01

    In the present study, the epidemiologic aspects of road traffic crashes in South East of Iran are described. This cross-sectional study included the profile of 2398 motor vehicle crashes recorded in the police office in one Year in South East of Iran. Data collected included: demographics, the type of crash, type of involved vehicle, location of crash and factors contributing to the crash. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Collisions with other vehicles or objects contributed the highest proportion (62.4%) of motor vehicle crashes. Human factors including careless driving, violating traffic laws, speeding, and sleep deprivation/fatigue were the most important causal factors accounting for 90% of road crashes. Data shows that 41% of drivers were not using a seat belt at the time of crash. One- third of the crashes resulted in injury (25%) or death (5%). Reckless driving such as speeding and violation of traffic laws are major risk factors for crashes in the South East of Iran. This highlights the need for education along with traffic law enforcement to reduce motor vehicle crashes in future.

  4. A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

    2010-11-01

    Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Safety impacts of platform tram stops on pedestrians in mixed traffic operation: A comparison group before-after crash study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naznin, Farhana; Currie, Graham; Logan, David; Sarvi, Majid

    2016-01-01

    Tram stops in mixed traffic environments present a variety of safety, accessibility and transport efficiency challenges. In Melbourne, Australia the hundred year-old electric tram system is progressively being modernized to improve passenger accessibility. Platform stops, incorporating raised platforms for level entry into low floor trams, are being retro-fitted system-wide to replace older design stops. The aim of this study was to investigate the safety impacts of platform stops over older design stops (i.e. Melbourne safety zone tram stops) on pedestrians in the context of mixed traffic tram operation in Melbourne, using an advanced before-after crash analysis approach, the comparison group (CG) method. The CG method evaluates safety impacts by taking into account the general trends in safety and the unobserved factors at treatment and comparison sites that can alter the outcomes of a simple before-after analysis. The results showed that pedestrian-involved all injury crashes reduced by 43% after platform stop installation. This paper also explores a concern that the conventional CG method might underestimate safety impacts as a result of large differences in passenger stop use between treatment and comparison sites, suggesting differences in crash risk exposure. To adjust for this, a modified analysis explored crash rates (crash counts per 10,000 stop passengers) for each site. The adjusted results suggested greater reductions in pedestrian-involved crashes after platform stop installation: an 81% reduction in pedestrian-involved all injury crashes and 86% reduction in pedestrian-involved FSI crashes, both are significant at the 95% level. Overall, the results suggest that platform stops have considerable safety benefits for pedestrians. Implications for policy and areas for future research are explored. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Survivors’ experiences from a train crash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Forsberg

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Rarely described are people's lived experiences from severe injury events such as train crashes. The number of train crashes named disasters with ≥10 killed and/or ≥100 nonfatally injured grows globally and the trend shows that more people survive these disasters today than did so in the past. This results in an increased number of survivors needing care. The aim of the study was to explore survivors’ experiences from a train crash. Narrative interviews were performed with 14 passengers 4 years after a train crash event. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyse the interviews. Experiences were captured in three main themes: (1 Living in the mode of existential threat describes how the survivors first lost control, then were thrown into a state of unimaginable chaos as they faced death. (2 Dealing with the unthinkable described how survivors restored control, the central role of others, and the importance of reconstructing the event to move forward in their processing. (3 Having cheated death shows how some became shackled by their history, whereas others overcame the haunting of unforgettable memories. Furthermore, the result shows how all experienced a second chance in life. Experiencing a train crash meant that the passengers experienced severe vulnerability and a threat to life and interdependence turned out to play a crucial role. Focusing on helping other passengers on site was one way to regain the loss of control and kept the chaos at bay. Family, friends, and fellow passengers turned out to be extremely important during the recovery process why such closeness should be promoted and facilitated.

  7. Crash forecasting in the Korean stock market based on the log-periodic structure and pattern recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bonggyun; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin

    2018-02-01

    The aim of this research is to propose an alarm index to forecast the crash of the Korean financial market in extension to the idea of Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, which uses the log-periodic functions and pattern recognition algorithm. We discover that the crashes of the Korean financial market can be classified into domestic and global crises where each category requires different window length of fitted datasets. Therefore, we add the window length as a new parameter to enhance the performance of alarm index. Distinguishing the domestic and global crises separately, our alarm index demonstrates more robust forecasting than previous model by showing the error diagram and the results of trading performance.

  8. Using cognitive status to predict crash risk: blazing new trails?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staplin, Loren; Gish, Kenneth W; Sifrit, Kathy J

    2014-02-01

    A computer-based version of an established neuropsychological paper-and-pencil assessment tool, the Trail-Making Test, was applied with approximately 700 drivers aged 70 years and older in offices of the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration. This was a volunteer sample that received a small compensation for study participation, with an assurance that their license status would not be affected by the results. Analyses revealed that the study sample was representative of Maryland older drivers with respect to age and indices of prior driving safety. The relationship between drivers' scores on the Trail-Making Test and prospective crash experience was analyzed using a new outcome measure that explicitly takes into account error responses as well as correct responses, the error-compensated completion time. For the only reliable predictor of crash risk, Trail-Making Test Part B, this measure demonstrated a modest gain in specificity and was a more significant predictor of future safety risk than the simple time-to-completion measure. Improved specificity and the potential for autonomous test administration are particular advantages of this measure for use with large populations, in settings such as health care or driver licensing. © 2013.

  9. Financial mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Jothi, A Lenin

    2009-01-01

    Financial services, particularly banking and insurance services is the prominent sector for the development of a nation. After the liberalisation of financial sector in India, the scope of getting career opportunities has been widened. It is heartening to note that various universities in India have introduced professional courses on banking and insurance. A new field of applied mathematics has come into prominence under the name of Financial Mathematics. Financial mathematics has attained much importance in the recent years because of the role played by mathematical concepts in decision - m

  10. Financial Resources of NGOs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Ciucescu

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the low funding levels registered in recent years in the NGO sector in Romania, many NGOs have faced a number of difficulties, some of them have ceased to carry on business. Financial position of the governmental sector is poor, especially for large organizations that are strictly dependent on foreign funds. For the good functioning of NGOs activity, it is requiring a constant concern for finacial fundraising. The article aims to present the diversity of financial resources of NGOs.

  11. Neighborhood Influences on Vehicle-Pedestrian Crash Severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toran Pour, Alireza; Moridpour, Sara; Tay, Richard; Rajabifard, Abbas

    2017-12-01

    Socioeconomic factors are known to be contributing factors for vehicle-pedestrian crashes. Although several studies have examined the socioeconomic factors related to the location of the crashes, limited studies have considered the socioeconomic factors of the neighborhood where the road users live in vehicle-pedestrian crash modelling. This research aims to identify the socioeconomic factors related to both the neighborhoods where the road users live and where crashes occur that have an influence on vehicle-pedestrian crash severity. Data on vehicle-pedestrian crashes that occurred at mid-blocks in Melbourne, Australia, was analyzed. Neighborhood factors associated with road users' residents and location of crash were investigated using boosted regression tree (BRT). Furthermore, partial dependence plots were applied to illustrate the interactions between these factors. We found that socioeconomic factors accounted for 60% of the 20 top contributing factors to vehicle-pedestrian crashes. This research reveals that socioeconomic factors of the neighborhoods where the road users live and where the crashes occur are important in determining the severity of the crashes, with the former having a greater influence. Hence, road safety countermeasures, especially those focussing on the road users, should be targeted at these high-risk neighborhoods.

  12. Crash probability estimation via quantifying driver hazard perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Zheng, Yang; Wang, Jianqiang; Kodaka, Kenji; Li, Keqiang

    2018-07-01

    Crash probability estimation is an important method to predict the potential reduction of crash probability contributed by forward collision avoidance technologies (FCATs). In this study, we propose a practical approach to estimate crash probability, which combines a field operational test and numerical simulations of a typical rear-end crash model. To consider driver hazard perception characteristics, we define a novel hazard perception measure, called as driver risk response time, by considering both time-to-collision (TTC) and driver braking response to impending collision risk in a near-crash scenario. Also, we establish a driving database under mixed Chinese traffic conditions based on a CMBS (Collision Mitigation Braking Systems)-equipped vehicle. Applying the crash probability estimation in this database, we estimate the potential decrease in crash probability owing to use of CMBS. A comparison of the results with CMBS on and off shows a 13.7% reduction of crash probability in a typical rear-end near-crash scenario with a one-second delay of driver's braking response. These results indicate that CMBS is positive in collision prevention, especially in the case of inattentive drivers or ole drivers. The proposed crash probability estimation offers a practical way for evaluating the safety benefits in the design and testing of FCATs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Repeatability study of replicate crash tests: A signal analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seppi, Jeremy; Toczyski, Jacek; Crandall, Jeff R; Kerrigan, Jason

    2017-10-03

    To provide an objective basis on which to evaluate the repeatability of vehicle crash test methods, a recently developed signal analysis method was used to evaluate correlation of sensor time history data between replicate vehicle crash tests. The goal of this study was to evaluate the repeatability of rollover crash tests performed with the Dynamic Rollover Test System (DRoTS) relative to other vehicle crash test methods. Test data from DRoTS tests, deceleration rollover sled (DRS) tests, frontal crash tests, frontal offset crash tests, small overlap crash tests, small overlap impact (SOI) crash tests, and oblique crash tests were obtained from the literature and publicly available databases (the NHTSA vehicle database and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety TechData) to examine crash test repeatability. Signal analysis of the DRoTS tests showed that force and deformation time histories had good to excellent repeatability, whereas vehicle kinematics showed only fair repeatability due to the vehicle mounting method for one pair of tests and slightly dissimilar mass properties (2.2%) in a second pair of tests. Relative to the DRS, the DRoTS tests showed very similar or higher levels of repeatability in nearly all vehicle kinematic data signals with the exception of global X' (road direction of travel) velocity and displacement due to the functionality of the DRoTS fixture. Based on the average overall scoring metric of the dominant acceleration, DRoTS was found to be as repeatable as all other crash tests analyzed. Vertical force measures showed good repeatability and were on par with frontal crash barrier forces. Dynamic deformation measures showed good to excellent repeatability as opposed to poor repeatability seen in SOI and oblique deformation measures. Using the signal analysis method as outlined in this article, the DRoTS was shown to have the same or better repeatability of crash test methods used in government regulatory and consumer evaluation test

  14. Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility

    OpenAIRE

    Enrica Detragiache; Asli Demirgüç-Kunt

    1998-01-01

    The authors study the empirical relationship between banking crises and financial liberalization using a panel of data for 53 countries for 1980-95. They find that banking crises are more likely to occur in liberalized financial systems. But financial liberalization's impact on a fragile banking sector is weaker where the institutional environment is strong--especially where there is respect for the rule of law, a low level of corruption, and good contract enforcement. They examine evidence o...

  15. Market-based approach to financial architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Underhill, G.R.D.; Caprio, G.; Beck, T.; Claessens, S.; Schmukler, S.L.

    2013-01-01

    The institutions of financial governance are central to the prospects for financial stability. Without sound regulatory and supervisory institutions, herd behavior and market failure looms large in a liberal financial system. Cross-border and cross-sectoral financial market integration exacerbates

  16. Financial Statements

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    users make on the basis of the financial information. .... IDRC's brand and reputation could impact partner- .... building and to provide internal services in support of the ...... maintains books of accounts, information systems, and financial and management controls that .... The significant accounting policies of the Centre are: a.

  17. Pilot ejection, parachute, and helicopter crash injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBratney, Colleen M; Rush, Stephen; Kharod, Chetan U

    2014-01-01

    USAF Pararescuemen (PJs) respond to downed aircrew as a fundamental mission for personnel recovery (PR), one of the Air Force's core functions. In addition to responding to these in Military settings, the PJs from the 212 Rescue Squadron routinely respond to small plane crashes in remote regions of Alaska. While there is a paucity of information on the latter, there have been articles detailing injuries sustained from helicopter crashes and while ejecting or parachuting from fixed wing aircraft. The following represents a new chapter added to the Pararescue Medical Operations Handbook, Sixth Edition (2014, editors Matt Wolf, MD, and Stephen Rush, MD, in press). It was designed to be a quick reference for PJs and their Special Operations flight surgeons to help with understanding of mechanism of injury with regard to pilot ejection, parachute, and helicopter accident injuries. It outlines the nature of the injuries sustained in such mishaps and provides an epidemiologic framework from which to approach the problem. 2014.

  18. Camera systems for crash and hyge testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreppers, Frederik

    1995-05-01

    Since the beginning of the use of high speed cameras for crash and hyge- testing substantial changements have taken place. Both the high speed cameras and the electronic control equipment are more sophisticated nowadays. With regard to high speed equipment, a short historical retrospective view will show that concerning high speed cameras, the improvements are mainly concentrated in design details, where as the electronic control equipment has taken full advantage of the rapid progress in electronic and computer technology in the course of the last decades. Nowadays many companies and institutes involved in crash and hyge-testing wish to perform this testing, as far as possible, as an automatic computer controlled routine in order to maintain and improve security and quality. By means of several in practice realize solutions, it will be shown how their requirements could be met.

  19. Analysis of Aircraft Crash Accident for WETF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, Hans

    2001-01-01

    This report applies the methodology of DOE-STD-3014-96, ''Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities'', to the Weapons Engineering Tritium Facility (WETF) at LANL. Straightforward application of that methodology shows that including local helicopter flights with those of all other aircraft with potential to impact the facility poses a facility impact risk slightly in excess of the DOE standard's threshold--10 -6 impacts per year. It is also shown that helicopters can penetrate the facility if their engines impact that facility's roof. However, a refinement of the helicopter impact analysis shows that penetration risk of the facility for all aircraft lies below the DOE standard's threshold. By that standard, therefore, the potential for release of hazardous material from the facility as a result of an aircraft crashing into the facility is negligible and need not be analyzed further

  20. Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoval, Leonidas; Franca, Italo De Paula

    2012-01-01

    Using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of correlations matrices of some of the main financial market indices in the world, we show that high volatility of markets is directly linked with strong correlations between them. This means that markets tend to behave as one during great crashes. In order to do so, we investigate financial market crises that occurred in the years 1987 (Black Monday), 1998 (Russian crisis), 2001 (Burst of the dot-com bubble and September 11), and 2008 (Subprime Mortgage Crisis), which mark some of the largest downturns of financial markets in the last three decades.

  1. Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-07-06

    This 60 second public service announcement is based on the July 2016 CDC Vital Signs report. In the U.S., about 90 people die in motor vehicle crashes each day and thousands more are injured, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in direct medical costs each year. Learn what you can do to stay safe.  Created: 7/6/2016 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 7/6/2016.

  2. Financial Literacy, Financial Education, and Economic Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Justine S.; Madrian, Brigitte C.; Skimmyhorn, William L.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we review the literature on financial literacy, financial education, and consumer financial outcomes. We consider how financial literacy is measured in the current literature and examine how well the existing literature addresses whether financial education improves financial literacy or personal financial outcomes. We discuss the…

  3. Potential Safety Benefit of the Blind Spot Detection System for Large Trucks on the Vulnerable Road Users in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Ming-Hang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering motorcyclists, pedestrians and bicyclists as vulnerable road users (VRUs, more than 75 percent of the victims of fatal crashes involving large trucks in Taiwan are VRUs. Most crashes occurred at or were due to the blind spots of large trucks because of the size and traveling locations of the VRUs. This study applies typology and statistical methods to estimate the potential safety benefit of blind spot detection (BSD systems for large trucks on VRUs. The pre-crash scenarios associated with the blind spots of large trucks were derived by counting the maneuvers of large trucks and VRUs, prior to crashes, the truck drivers’ improper behaviors (cause of crashes, and the crash types. The number of crashes and fatalities were counted for the pre-crash scenario relevant to the BSD systems. A value of 0.8 of human machine interface factor (HMIF based on a previous study was applied to estimate the potential safety benefits of the BSD system. The results show that the implementation of BSD systems on all large trucks could help avoid about 24, 10, and 11 percent of large truck-involved crashes with pedestrians, bicycles, and motorcycles, respectively. The BSD systems could also save 5 pedestrians, 3 bicyclists, and 15 motorcyclists per year from crashes involving large trucks.

  4. Analysis of crashes using FE vehicle models. Relations between vehicle types and crash characteristics; Yugen yoso model wo mochiita sharyo no shototsu kaiseki. Sharyo type to shototsu tokusei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takatori, O. [Japan Automobile Research Institute Inc., Tsukuba (Japan)

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the crash characteristics of vehicles under the condition of real-world accidents. This paper pays attention to the differences in the crash characteristics of a vehicle colliding with a vehicle which is a different type. Vehicles on the market can be divided broadly into two vehicle structures, monocoque structure and frame structure. Monocoque structure is mainly used for passenger vehicles and frame structure is for recreational vehicles (RV). In recent years, RV has been a large seller on the market. So accidents between passenger vehicles and a RVs occur frequently. The analysis of experimental data and computer simulation, which is predicated on the experimental data, was carried out for this study. In the analysis of experimental data, barrier force data from the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) were analyzed. The FE passenger vehicle model which is based on systematic validation tests was used for the computer simulation of car-to-car collisions. (author)

  5. Life-threatening motor vehicle crashes in bright sunlight

    OpenAIRE

    Redelmeier, Donald A.; Raza, Sheharyar

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Bright sunlight may create visual illusions that lead to driver error, including fallible distance judgment from aerial perspective. We tested whether the risk of a life-threatening motor vehicle crash was increased when driving in bright sunlight. This longitudinal, case-only, paired-comparison analysis evaluated patients hospitalized because of a motor vehicle crash between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2014. The relative risk of a crash associated with bright sunlight was estim...

  6. Statistics of financial markets an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Franke, Jürgen; Hafner, Christian Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Now in its fourth edition, this book offers a detailed yet concise introduction to the growing field of statistical applications in finance. The reader will learn the basic methods of evaluating option contracts, analyzing financial time series, selecting portfolios and managing risks based on realistic assumptions about market behavior. The focus is both on the fundamentals of mathematical finance and financial time series analysis, and on applications to given problems concerning financial markets, thus making the book the ideal basis for lectures, seminars and crash courses on the topic. For this new edition the book has been updated and extensively revised and now includes several new aspects, e.g. new chapters on long memory models, copulae and CDO valuation. Practical exercises with solutions have also been added. Both R and Matlab Code, together with the data, can be downloaded from the book’s product page and www.quantlet.de

  7. Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding aircraft crash accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    OBERG, B.D.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this calculation note is to quantitatively analyze a bounding aircraft crash accident for comparison to the DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', Appendix A, Evaluation Guideline of 25 rem. The potential of aircraft impacting a facility was evaluated using the approach given in DOE-STD-3014-96, ''Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities''. The following aircraft crash FR-equencies were determined for the Tank Farms in RPP-11736, ''Assessment Of Aircraft Crash FR-equency For The Hanford Site 200 Area Tank Farms'': (1) The total aircraft crash FR-equency is ''extremely unlikely.'' (2) The general aviation crash FR-equency is ''extremely unlikely.'' (3) The helicopter crash FR-equency is ''beyond extremely unlikely.'' (4) For the Hanford Site 200 Areas, other aircraft type, commercial or military, each above ground facility, and any other type of underground facility is ''beyond extremely unlikely.'' As the potential of aircraft crash into the 200 Area tank farms is more FR-equent than ''beyond extremely unlikely,'' consequence analysis of the aircraft crash is required

  8. Crash data and rates for age-sex groups of drivers, 1996

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    The results of this research note are based on 1996data for fatal crashes, driver licenses, and estimates of total crashes based upon data obtained from the nationally representative sample of crashes gathered in the General Estimates System (GES). T...

  9. Association knowledge for fatal run-off-road crashes by Multiple Correspondence Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subasish Das

    2016-03-01

    Results of the MCA method can help researchers select the most effective crash countermeasures. Further work on the degree of association between the identified crash contributing factors can help safety management systems develop the most efficient crash reduction strategies.

  10. The study of Thai stock market across the 2008 financial crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanjamapornkul, K.; Pinčák, Richard; Bartoš, Erik

    2016-11-01

    The cohomology theory for financial market can allow us to deform Kolmogorov space of time series data over time period with the explicit definition of eight market states in grand unified theory. The anti-de Sitter space induced from a coupling behavior field among traders in case of a financial market crash acts like gravitational field in financial market spacetime. Under this hybrid mathematical superstructure, we redefine a behavior matrix by using Pauli matrix and modified Wilson loop for time series data. We use it to detect the 2008 financial market crash by using a degree of cohomology group of sphere over tensor field in correlation matrix over all possible dominated stocks underlying Thai SET50 Index Futures. The empirical analysis of financial tensor network was performed with the help of empirical mode decomposition and intrinsic time scale decomposition of correlation matrix and the calculation of closeness centrality of planar graph.

  11. An investigation of the speeding-related crash designation through crash narrative reviews sampled via logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Cole D; Rakasi, Saritha; Knodler, Michael A

    2017-01-01

    Speed is one of the most important factors in traffic safety as higher speeds are linked to increased crash risk and higher injury severities. Nearly a third of fatal crashes in the United States are designated as "speeding-related", which is defined as either "the driver behavior of exceeding the posted speed limit or driving too fast for conditions." While many studies have utilized the speeding-related designation in safety analyses, no studies have examined the underlying accuracy of this designation. Herein, we investigate the speeding-related crash designation through the development of a series of logistic regression models that were derived from the established speeding-related crash typologies and validated using a blind review, by multiple researchers, of 604 crash narratives. The developed logistic regression model accurately identified crashes which were not originally designated as speeding-related but had crash narratives that suggested speeding as a causative factor. Only 53.4% of crashes designated as speeding-related contained narratives which described speeding as a causative factor. Further investigation of these crashes revealed that the driver contributing code (DCC) of "driving too fast for conditions" was being used in three separate situations. Additionally, this DCC was also incorrectly used when "exceeding the posted speed limit" would likely have been a more appropriate designation. Finally, it was determined that the responding officer only utilized one DCC in 82% of crashes not designated as speeding-related but contained a narrative indicating speed as a contributing causal factor. The use of logistic regression models based upon speeding-related crash typologies offers a promising method by which all possible speeding-related crashes could be identified. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Financial Statements in Providing Financial Security of Agricultural Enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Olha Vdovenko

    2014-01-01

    In conditions of severe market competition and economic turmoil financial security of agricultural businesses largely depends on the effectiveness of management decisions, reporting being the information support to ensure such decision making. Thus, the practice of preparing accounting figures and their adjustment has a direct effect on agricultural businesses financial security. Having been generalized at the industry level, statistical and financial statements are used for the development o...

  13. Injury mitigation estimates for an intersection driver assistance system in straight crossing path crashes in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, John M; Sherony, Rini; Gabler, Hampton C

    2017-05-29

    Accounting for one fifth of all crashes and one sixth of all fatal crashes in the United States, intersection crashes are among the most frequent and fatal crash modes. Intersection advanced driver assistance systems (I-ADAS) are emerging vehicle-based active safety systems that aim to help drivers safely navigate intersections. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of crashes and number of vehicles with a seriously injured driver (Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale [MAIS] 3+) that could be prevented or reduced if, for every straight crossing path (SCP) intersection crash, one of the vehicles had been equipped with an I-ADAS. This study retrospectively simulated 448 U.S. SCP crashes as if one of the vehicles had been equipped with I-ADAS. Crashes were reconstructed to determine the path and speeds traveled by the vehicles. Cases were then simulated with I-ADAS. A total of 30 variations of I-ADAS were considered in this study. These variations consisted of 5 separate activation timing thresholds, 3 separate computational latency times, and 2 different I-ADAS response modalities (i.e., a warning or autonomous braking). The likelihood of a serious driver injury was computed for every vehicle in every crash using impact delta-V. The results were then compiled across all crashes in order to estimate system effectiveness. The model predicted that an I-ADAS that delivers an alert to the driver has the potential to prevent 0-23% of SCP crashes and 0-25% of vehicles with a seriously injured driver. Conversely, an I-ADAS that autonomously brakes was found to have the potential to prevent 25-59% of crashes and 38-79% of vehicles with a seriously injured driver. I-ADAS effectiveness is a strong function of design. Increasing computational latency time from 0 to 0.5 s was found to reduce crash and injury prevention estimates by approximately one third. For an I-ADAS that delivers an alert, crash/injury prevention effectiveness was found to be very sensitive to

  14. Crash protection of stock car racing drivers--application of biomechanical analysis of Indy car crash research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, John W; Begeman, Paul C; Faller, Ronald K; Sicking, Dean L; McClellan, Scott B; Maynard, Edwin; Donegan, Michael W; Mallott, Annette M; Gideon, Thomas W

    2006-11-01

    Biomechanical analysis of Indy car crashes using on-board impact recorders (Melvin et al. 1998, Melvin et al. 2001) indicates that Indy car driver protection in high-energy crashes can be achieved in frontal, side, and rear crashes with severities in the range of 100 to 135 G peak deceleration and velocity changes in the range of 50 to 70 mph. These crashes were predominantly single-car impacts with the rigid concrete walls of oval tracks. This impressive level of protection was found to be due to the unique combination of a very supportive and tight-fitting cockpit-seating package, a six-point belt restraint system, and effective head padding with an extremely strong chassis that defines the seat and cockpit of a modern Indy car. In 2000 and 2001, a series of fatal crashes in stock car racing created great concern for improving the crash protection for drivers in those racecars. Unlike the Indy car, the typical racing stock car features a more spacious driver cockpit due to its resemblance to the shape of a passenger car. The typical racing seat used in stock cars did not have the same configuration or support characteristics of the Indy car seat, and five-point belt restraints were used. The tubular steel space frame chassis of a stock car also differs from an Indy car's composite chassis structure in both form and mechanical behavior. This paper describes the application of results of the biomechanical analysis of the Indy car crash studies to the unique requirements of stock car racing driver crash protection. Sled test and full-scale crash test data using both Hybrid III frontal crash anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and BioSID side crash ATDs for the purpose of evaluating countermeasures involving restraint systems, seats and head/neck restraints has been instrumental in guiding these developments. In addition, the development of deformable walls for oval tracks (the SAFER Barrier) is described as an adjunct to improved occupant restraint through control

  15. Accounting Profession: Oversight, Auditor Independence, and Financial Reporting Issues

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sarbanes, Paul

    2002-01-01

    ...) and other large corporations financial reporting restatements have raised questions about the soundness of the current self-regulatory and financial reporting systems and resulted in substantial...

  16. Financial assurances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paton, R.F.

    1990-01-01

    US Ecology is a full service waste management company. The company operates two of the nation's three existing low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facilities and has prepared and submitted license applications for two new LLRW disposal facilities in California and Nebraska. The issue of financial assurances is an important aspect of site development and operation. Proper financial assurances help to insure that uninterrupted operation, closure and monitoring of a facility will be maintained throughout the project's life. Unfortunately, this aspect of licensing is not like others where you can gauge acceptance by examining approved computer codes, site performance standards or applying specific technical formulas. There is not a standard financial assurance plan. Each site should develop its requirements based upon the conditions of the site, type of design, existing state or federal controls, and realistic assessments of future financial needs. Financial assurances at U.S. Ecology's existing sites in Richland, Washington, and Beatty, Nevada, have been in place for several years and are accomplished in a variety of ways by the use of corporate guarantees, corporate capital funds, third party liability insurance, and post closure/long-term care funds. In addressing financial assurances, one can divide the issue into three areas: Site development/operations, third party damages, and long-term care/cleanup

  17. Can we use volatility to diagnose financial bubbles? lessons from 40historical bubbles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didier Sornette

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in orderto uncover possible commonalities and check empirically whether volatility might be used as anindicator or an early warning signal of an unsustainable price increase and the associated crash. Someresearchers and finance practitioners believe that historical and/or implied volatility increase beforea crash, but we do not see this as a consistent behavior. We examine forty well-known bubbles and,using creative graphical representations to capture robustly the transient dynamics of the volatility, findthat the dynamics of the volatility would not have been a useful predictor of the subsequent crashes.In approximately two-third of the studied bubbles, the crash follows a period of lower volatility,reminiscent of the idiom of a “lull before the storm”. This paradoxical behavior, from the lensesof traditional asset pricing models, further questions the general relationship between risk and return.

  18. Dynamic bifurcations on financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozłowska, M.; Denys, M.; Wiliński, M.; Link, G.; Gubiec, T.; Werner, T.R.; Kutner, R.; Struzik, Z.R.

    2016-01-01

    We provide evidence that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, preceded by early warning signs such as flickering phenomena, are present on notoriously unpredictable financial markets. For this we construct robust indicators of catastrophic dynamical slowing down and apply these to identify hallmarks of dynamical catastrophic bifurcation transitions. This is done using daily closing index records for the representative examples of financial markets of small and mid to large capitalisations experiencing a speculative bubble induced by the worldwide financial crisis of 2007-08.

  19. Cell phone use and traffic crash risk: a culpability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asbridge, Mark; Brubacher, Jeff R; Chan, Herbert

    2013-02-01

    The use of a cell phone or communication device while driving is illegal in many jurisdictions, yet evidence evaluating the crash risk associated with cell phone use in naturalistic settings is limited. This article aims to determine whether cell phone use while driving increases motor vehicle crash culpability. Method Drivers involved in crashes where police reported cell phone use (n = 312) and propensity matched drivers (age, sex, suspect alcohol/drug impairment, crash type, date, time of day, geographical location) without cell phone use (n = 936) were drawn from Insurance Corporation of British Columbia Traffic Accident System data. A standardized scoring tool, modified to account for Canadian driving conditions, was used to determine crash culpability from police reports on all drivers from the crashes. The association between crash culpability and cell phone use was determined, with additional subgroup analyses based on crash severity, driver characteristics and type of licence. A comparison of crashes with vs without cell phones revealed an odds ratio of 1.70 (95% confidence interval 1.22-2.36; P = 0.002). This association was consistent after adjustment for matching variables and other covariates. Subgroup analyses demonstrated an association for male drivers, unimpaired drivers, injured and non-injured drivers, and for drivers aged between 26 and 65 years. Crash culpability was found to be significantly associated with cell phone use by drivers, increasing the odds of a culpable crash by 70% compared with drivers who did not use a cell phone. This increased risk was particularly high for middle-aged drivers.

  20. Wrong-way driving crashes on French divided roads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemel, Emmanuel

    2015-02-01

    The objective of divided roads is to increase users' safety by posting unidirectional traffic flows. It happens however that drivers proceed in the wrong direction, endangering themselves as well as other users. The crashes caused by wrong-way drivers are generally spotlighted by the media and call for public intervention. This paper proposes a characterization of wrong-way driving crashes occurring on French divided road on the 2008-2012 period. The objective is to identify the factors that delineate between wrong-way driving crashes and other crashes. Building on the national injury road crash database, 266 crashes involving a wrong-way driver were identified. Their characteristics (related to timing, location, vehicle and driver) are compared to those of the 22,120 other crashes that occurred on the same roads over the same period. The comparison relies on descriptive statistics, completed by a logistic regression. Wrong-way driving crashes are rare but severe. They are more likely to occur during night hours and on non-freeway roads than other crashes. Wrong-way drivers are older, more likely to be intoxicated, to be locals, to drive older vehicles, mainly passenger cars without passengers, than other drivers. The differences observed across networks can help prioritizing public intervention. Most of the identified WW-driving factors deal with cognitive impairment. Therefore, the specific countermeasures such as alternative road signs should be designed for and tested on cognitively impaired drivers. Nevertheless, WW-driving factors are also risk factors for other types of crashes (e.g. elderly driving, drunk driving and age of the vehicle). This suggests that, instead of (or in addition to) developing WW-driving specific countermeasures, managing these risk factors would help reducing a larger number of crashes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Evaluation of damages of airplane crash in European Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (EU-ABWR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamei, Kazuhiro; Tanoue, Tetsuharu; Kataoka, Kazuyoshi; Jimbo, Masakazu

    2011-01-01

    European Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (EU-ABWR) is developed by Toshiba. EU-ABWR accommodates an armored reactor building against Airplane Crash (APC), severe accident mitigation systems, N+2 principle in safety systems and a large output of 1600 MWe. Thanks to above mentioned features, EU-ABWR's design objectives and principles are consistent with safety requirements in an European market. In this paper, evaluation of damages induced by APC has been summarized. (author)

  2. The influence of the hospital financial officer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R W

    1991-01-01

    The power and influence of financial officers in large, independent hospitals was examined through their involvement in decisions. Chief financial officers (CFOs) find their role as members of the management team relatively ambiguous and probably underutilized.

  3. Crash simulation: an immersive learning model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenham, John; Bennett, Paul; Gleeson, Wendy

    2017-12-26

    Far West New South Wales Local Emergency Management Committee runs an annual crash simulation exercise to assess the operational readiness of all local emergency services to coordinate and manage a multi-casualty exercise. Since 2009, the Broken Hill University Department of Rural Health (BHUDRH) has collaborated with the committee, enabling the inclusion of health students in this exercise. It is an immersive interprofessional learning experience that evaluates teamwork, communication and safe effective clinical trauma management outside the hospital setting. After 7 years of modifying and developing the exercise, we set out to evaluate its impact on the students' learning, and sought ethics approval from the University of Sydney for this study. At the start of this year's crash simulation, students were given information sheets and consent forms with regards to the research. Once formal debriefing had finished, the researchers conducted a semi-structured focus-group interview with the health students to gain insight into their experience and their perceived value of the training. Students also completed short-answer questionnaires, and the anonymised responses were analysed. Crash simulation … evaluates teamwork, communication and safe effective clinical trauma management IMPLICATIONS: Participants identified that this multidisciplinary learning opportunity in a pre-hospital mass casualty situation was of value to them. It has taken them outside of their usually protected hospital or primary care setting and tested their critical thinking and communication skills. We recommend this learning concept to other educational institutions. Further research will assess the learning value of the simulated event to the other agencies involved. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

  4. Sawtooth crashes at high beta on JET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alper, B; Huysmans, G T.A.; Sips, A C.C. [Commission of the European Communities, Abingdon (United Kingdom). JET Joint Undertaking; Nave, M F.F. [Universidade Tecnica, Lisbon (Portugal). Inst. Superior Tecnico

    1994-07-01

    The sawtooth crashes on JET display features which depend on beta. The main observation is a transient bulging of flux surfaces (duration inferior to 30 microsec.), which is predominantly on the low field side and extends to larger radii as beta increases. This phenomenon reaches the plasma boundary when beta{sub N} exceeds 0.5 and in these cases is followed by an ELM within 50 microsec. These sawtooth/ELM events limit plasma performance. Modelling of mode coupling shows qualitative agreement between observations of the structure of the sawtooth precursor and the calculated internal kink mode at high beta. (authors). 6 refs., 5 figs.

  5. Two-fractal overlap time series: Earthquakes and market crashes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations. Keywords. Cantor set; time series; earthquake; market crash. PACS Nos 05.00; 02.50.-r; 64.60; 89.65.Gh; 95.75.Wx. 1. Introduction. Capturing dynamical patterns of ...

  6. Drug and alcohol crash risk : a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This study used a case-control design to estimate the risk of crashes involving drivers using drugs, alcohol or both. Data was collected in Virginia Beach, Virginia, for 20 months. The study obtained biological measures on more than 3,000 crash...

  7. In pedestrian crashes, it's vehicle speed that matters the most

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-05-13

    A recently prepared report on pedestrian injuries provides these two main findings: 1) regardless of age, pedestrians involved in crashes are more likely to be killed as vehicle speeds increase; and 2) in crashes at any speed, older pedestrians are m...

  8. Impact of connected vehicles on mitigating secondary crash risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing the risk of secondary crashes is a key goal for effective traffic incident management. However, only few countermeasures have been established in practices to achieve the goal. This is mainly due to the stochastic nature of both primary and secondary crashes. Given the emerging connected vehicle (CV technologies, it is highly likely that CVs will soon be able to communicate with each other through the ad-hoc wireless vehicular network. Information sharing among vehicles is deemed to change traffic operations and allow motorists for more proactive actions. Motorists who receive safety messages can be motivated to approach queues and incident sites with more caution. As a result of the improved situational awareness, the risk of secondary crashes is expected to be reduced. To examine whether this expectation is achievable or not, this study aims to assess the impact of connectivity on the risk of secondary crashes. A simulation-based modeling framework that enables vehicle-to-vehicle communication module was developed. Since crashes cannot be directly simulated in micro-simulation, the use of surrogate safety measures was proposed to capture vehicular conflicts as a proxy for secondary crash risk upstream of a primary crash site. An experimental study was conducted based on the developed simulation modeling framework. The results show that the use of connected vehicles can be a viable way to reduce the risk of secondary crashes. Their impact is expected to change with an increasing market penetration of connected vehicles.

  9. Prediction equation for vehicle-pedestrian crash and safety analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The occurrences of vehicle-pedestrian crashes at signalized intersections were investigated using a 3 year (2004-2006) crash records of 82 signalized intersections in Accra, Kumasi, Tema, Sekondi-Takoradi and Tamale. The data were analyzed using Micro-computer Accident Analysis Package. Traffic flow characteristics ...

  10. Analysis of Traffic Crash Data in Kentucky (2012-2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    This report documents an analysis of traffic crash data in Kentucky for the years of 2012 through 2016. A primary objective of this study was to determine average crash statistics for Kentucky highways. Rates were calculated for various types of high...

  11. Analysis of traffic crash data in Kentucky (2009-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    This report documents an analysis of traffic crash data in Kentucky for the years of 2009 through 2013. A primary objective of this study was to determine average crash statistics for Kentucky highways. Rates were calculated for various types of high...

  12. Robust collaborative process interactions under system crash and network failures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Lei; Wombacher, Andreas; Ferreira Pires, Luis; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Chi, Chihung

    2013-01-01

    With the possibility of system crashes and network failures, the design of robust client/server interactions for collaborative process execution is a challenge. If a business process changes its state, it sends messages to the relevant processes to inform about this change. However, server crashes

  13. 14 CFR 29.952 - Fuel system crash resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 29.952 Fuel system... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system crash resistance. 29.952... of fuel fires to occupants following an otherwise survivable impact (crash landing), the fuel systems...

  14. 14 CFR 27.952 - Fuel system crash resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 27.952 Fuel system... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system crash resistance. 27.952... of fuel fires to occupants following an otherwise survivable impact (crash landing), the fuel systems...

  15. Social costs of road crashes : an international analysis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnen, W. & Stipdonk, H.L.

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides an international overview of the most recent estimates of the social costs of road crashes: total costs, value per casualty and breakdown in cost components. The analysis is based on publications about the national costs of road crashes of 17 countries, of which ten high income

  16. Road Crashes in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Empirical Findings ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nneka Umera-Okeke

    studies on road crashes forecasted road traffic fatalities to be the second ... Ethiopia's capital city – shares 60% out of the total number of vehicles in the ... network density and vehicle ownership, the country (Ethiopia) has been cited as ... crash related injury case confirmation. ..... to thank you in advance for your cooperation!

  17. School start times and teenage driver motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foss, Robert D; Smith, Richard L; O'Brien, Natalie P

    2018-04-26

    Shifting school start times to 8:30 am or later has been found to improve academic performance and reduce behavior problems. Limited research suggests this may also reduce adolescent driver motor vehicle crashes. A change in the school start time from 7:30 am to 8:45 am for all public high schools in one North Carolina county presented the opportunity to address this question with greater methodologic rigor. We conducted ARIMA interrupted time-series analyses to examine motor vehicle crash rates of high school age drivers in the intervention county and 3 similar comparison counties with comparable urban-rural population distribution. To focus on crashes most likely to be affected, we limited analysis to crashes involving 16- & 17-year-old drivers occurring on days when school was in session. In the intervention county, there was a 14% downward shift in the time-series following the 75 min delay in school start times (p = .076). There was no change approaching statistical significance in any of the other three counties. Further analysis indicated marked, statistically significant shifts in hourly crash rates in the intervention county, reflecting effects of the change in school start time on young driver exposure. Crashes from 7 to 7:59 am decreased sharply (-25%, p = .008), but increased similarly from 8 to 8:59 am (21%, p = .004). Crashes from 2 to 2:59 pm declined dramatically (-48%, p = .000), then increased to a lesser degree from 3 to 3:59 pm (32%, p = .024) and non-significantly from 4 to 4:59 (19%, p = .102). There was no meaningful change in early morning or nighttime crashes, when drowsiness-induced crashes might have been expected to be most common. The small decrease in crashes among high school age drivers following the shift in school start time is consistent with the findings of other studies of teen driver crashes and school start times. All these studies, including the present one, have limitations, but the similar

  18. Inclusive Financial System Reforms in Uganda: Unveiling Ambiguity

    OpenAIRE

    Ayoki, Milton

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the financial system reforms in the context of financial sector deepening, and strategy for financial sector development and inclusion in Uganda. Results suggest that the indicators of financial sector development are largely as they were in 1996 and that the actual gains from financial inclusion strategies are small. Evidence suggests a weak link between financial deepening and financial usage by firms and households. It finds the acclaimed success (by policy makers and s...

  19. Numerical analyses of an aircraft crash on containment building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sim, Jae Min; Kim, Seung Hyun; Chang, Yoon Suk [Kyunghee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The containment building is responsible to isolate and protect internal devices against external conditions like earthquake, hurricane and impact loading. It has also to protect leakage of radioactivity, like LOCA (Loss Of Coolant Accident), when severe accidents occurred. Meanwhile, social awareness such as terrorism has been increased globally after international aircraft crashes at World Trade Center and Pentagon. In this paper, FE (Finite Element) analyses according to variation of crash locations and speeds were carried out to examine the aircraft crash impact on a domestic containment building. In this paper, numerical analyses of aircraft crash on NPP's containment building were performed taking into account different locations and aircraft speeds. (1) Amounts of concrete failure were dependent on the crash locations and the connector was the most delicate location comparing to the dome and wall part. (2) Maximum stress values generated at the liner plate and rebars did not exceed their UTS values.

  20. Numerical analyses of an aircraft crash on containment building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sim, Jae Min; Kim, Seung Hyun; Chang, Yoon Suk

    2016-01-01

    The containment building is responsible to isolate and protect internal devices against external conditions like earthquake, hurricane and impact loading. It has also to protect leakage of radioactivity, like LOCA (Loss Of Coolant Accident), when severe accidents occurred. Meanwhile, social awareness such as terrorism has been increased globally after international aircraft crashes at World Trade Center and Pentagon. In this paper, FE (Finite Element) analyses according to variation of crash locations and speeds were carried out to examine the aircraft crash impact on a domestic containment building. In this paper, numerical analyses of aircraft crash on NPP's containment building were performed taking into account different locations and aircraft speeds. (1) Amounts of concrete failure were dependent on the crash locations and the connector was the most delicate location comparing to the dome and wall part. (2) Maximum stress values generated at the liner plate and rebars did not exceed their UTS values

  1. The October 2014 United States Treasury bond flash crash and the contributory effect of mini flash crashes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary S Levine

    Full Text Available We investigate the causal uncertainty surrounding the flash crash in the U.S. Treasury bond market on October 15, 2014, and the unresolved concern that no clear link has been identified between the start of the flash crash at 9:33 and the opening of the U.S. equity market at 9:30. We consider the contributory effect of mini flash crashes in equity markets, and find that the number of equity mini flash crashes in the three-minute window between market open and the Treasury Flash Crash was 2.6 times larger than the number experienced in any other three-minute window in the prior ten weekdays. We argue that (a this statistically significant finding suggests that mini flash crashes in equity markets both predicted and contributed to the October 2014 U.S. Treasury Bond Flash Crash, and (b mini-flash crashes are important phenomena with negative externalities that deserve much greater scholarly attention.

  2. The October 2014 United States Treasury bond flash crash and the contributory effect of mini flash crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Zachary S; Hale, Scott A; Floridi, Luciano

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the causal uncertainty surrounding the flash crash in the U.S. Treasury bond market on October 15, 2014, and the unresolved concern that no clear link has been identified between the start of the flash crash at 9:33 and the opening of the U.S. equity market at 9:30. We consider the contributory effect of mini flash crashes in equity markets, and find that the number of equity mini flash crashes in the three-minute window between market open and the Treasury Flash Crash was 2.6 times larger than the number experienced in any other three-minute window in the prior ten weekdays. We argue that (a) this statistically significant finding suggests that mini flash crashes in equity markets both predicted and contributed to the October 2014 U.S. Treasury Bond Flash Crash, and (b) mini-flash crashes are important phenomena with negative externalities that deserve much greater scholarly attention.

  3. Evidence of market manipulation in the financial crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Vedant Misra; Marco Lagi; Yaneer Bar-Yam

    2011-01-01

    We provide direct evidence of market manipulation at the beginning of the financial crisis in November 2007. The type of manipulation, a "bear raid," would have been prevented by a regulation that was repealed by the Securities and Exchange Commission in July 2007. The regulation, the uptick rule, was designed to prevent manipulation and promote stability and was in force from 1938 as a key part of the government response to the 1929 market crash and its aftermath. On November 1, 2007, Citigr...

  4. Gasoline prices and traffic crashes in Alabama, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Guangqing; McClure, Timothy E; Brown, David B

    2012-09-01

    The price of gasoline has been found to be negatively associated with traffic crashes in a limited number of studies. However, most of the studies have focused either on fatal crashes only or on all crashes but measured over a very short time period. In this study, we examine gasoline price effects on all traffic crashes by demographic groups in the state of Alabama from 1999 to 2009. Using negative binomial regression techniques to examine monthly data from 1999 to 2009 in the state of Alabama, we estimate the effects of changes in gasoline price on changes in automobile crashes. We also examine how these effects differ by age group (16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-64, and 65+), gender (male and female), and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic). The results show that gasoline prices have both short-term and long-term effects on reducing total traffic crashes and crashes of each age, gender, and race/ethnicity group (except Hispanic due to data limitations). The short-term and long-term effects are not statistically different for each individual demographic group. Gasoline prices have a stronger effect in reducing crashes involving drivers aged 16 to 20 than crashes involving drivers aged 31 to 64 and 65+ in the short term; the effects, however, are not statistically different across other demographic groups. Although gasoline price increases are not favored, our findings show that gasoline price increases (or decreases) are associated with reductions (or increases) in the incidence of traffic crashes. If gasoline prices had remained at the 1999 level of $1.41 from 1999 to 2009, applying the estimated elasticities would result in a predicted increase in total crashes of 169,492 (or 11.3%) from the actual number of crashes. If decision makers wish to reduce traffic crashes, increasing gasoline taxes is a possible option-however, doing so would increase travel costs and lead to equity concerns. These findings may help to shape transportation

  5. Preliminary Study on Effect of Aviation Fuel in the Safety Evaluation of Nuclear Power Plant Crashed by Aircraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Byeong Moo; Jeon, Se Jin; Lee, Yun Seok; Kim, Young Jin

    2011-01-01

    As the safety assessments of nuclear power plants for the hypothetical large civil aircraft crash should be made mandatory, studies on large aircraft-nuclear power plant impact analyses and assessments are actively in progress. The large civil aircraft are being operated with a large amount of fuel and the fuel can be assumed to contribute to the impact loads at the impact. The fuel, i.e., the internal liquid can be considered as added masses classically in the evaluation of the impact load. According to the recent experimental research, it has been shown that the impact load of high speed impacting body with internal liquid is much higher than that of the mass-equivalent impacting body. In this study, the impact loads according to the existence of the internal liquid are computed by numerical methods and the safety assessment of nuclear power plant crashed by large civil aircraft are performed as an application

  6. Improvement of Aircraft Crash Effective Areas for Koeberg Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Momoti, S.; Dongmo, G.B.; Combrink, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA): Tool for determining safe functioning of nuclear power plant to meet regulatory requirements; One of the inputs to the PSA are the frequency and consequences of an aircraft crash. Overview: Frequency of Aircraft Crash; Effective Area of an Aircraft Crashing into Koeberg - Aviation Categories, - Shielding of sensitive target buildings; Impact of refining the Effective AreaFrequency of Aircraft Crash

  7. The impact of later trading hours for hotels on levels of impaired driver road crashes and driver breath alcohol levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chikritzhs, Tanya; Stockwell, Tim

    2006-09-01

    To examine the impact of later trading hours for licensed hotels in Perth, Western Australia on levels of associated impaired driver road crashes and driver breath alcohol levels (BALs). Police data on the "last place of drinking" for impaired drivers involved in road crashes and their corresponding BALs were examined to identify those associated with Perth hotels between 1 July 1990 and 30 June 1997. During this period, 43 (23%) of the 186 hotels meeting study criteria were granted an Extended Trading Permit for 1 a.m. closing (ETP hotels), while the rest continued to close at midnight (non-ETP hotels). Time-series analyses employing multiple linear regressions were applied to determine whether an association existed between the introduction of extended trading and (i) monthly levels of impaired driver road crashes associated with ETP hotels and (ii) driver BALs associated with ETP hotels. Trends associated with non-ETP hotels were included as controls and possible confounders were considered. After controlling for the trend in crash rates associated with non-ETP hotels and the introduction of mobile police breath testing stations to Perth freeways, a significant increase in monthly crash rates for ETP hotels was found. This relationship was largely accounted for by higher volumes of high-alcohol content beer, wine and spirits purchased by ETP hotels. No relation was found between driver BALs and the introduction of ETPs. Late trading was associated with increased levels of impaired driver road crashes and alcohol consumption, particularly high-risk alcoholic beverages. Greater numbers of patrons and characteristics specific to clientele of hotels which applied for late trading hours (i.e. younger age, greater propensity to drunk-drive, preference for high-risk beverages) were suggested as having contributed to this increase.

  8. Financial sector taxation: Financial activities tax or financial transaction tax?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danuše Nerudová

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent financial crises has revealed the need to improve and ensure the stability of the financial sector to reduce negative externalities, to ensure fair and substantial contribution of the financial sector to the public finances and the need to consolidate public finance. All those needs represent substantial arguments for the discussion about the introduction of financial sector taxation. There are discussed in the paper two possible schemes of financial sector taxation – financial transaction tax and financial activities tax. The aim of the paper is to research the possibility of the introduction of financial sector taxation, to discuss the pros and cons of two major candidates on financial sector taxation – financial transaction tax and financial activities tax and to suggest the possible candidate suitable for the implementation on the EU level. Financial transaction tax represents the tool suitable mainly on global level, for only in that case enables generate sufficient financial resources. From EU point of view is considered as less suitable, for it bears the risk of reallocation. Therefore the introduction of financial activities tax on EU level is considered as a better solution for the financial sector taxation in the EU, for financial sector is exempted from value added tax. With respect to the fact, that the implementation would represent the innovative approach to the financial sector taxation, there are no empirical proves and therefore this could be the subject of further research.

  9. Modeling crash injury severity by road feature to improve safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penmetsa, Praveena; Pulugurtha, Srinivas S

    2018-01-02

    The objective of this research is 2-fold: to (a) model and identify critical road features (or locations) based on crash injury severity and compare it with crash frequency and (b) model and identify drivers who are more likely to contribute to crashes by road feature. Crash data from 2011 to 2013 were obtained from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the state of North Carolina. Twenty-three different road features were considered, analyzed, and compared with each other as well as no road feature. A multinomial logit (MNL) model was developed and odds ratios were estimated to investigate the effect of road features on crash injury severity. Among the many road features, underpass, end or beginning of a divided highway, and on-ramp terminal on crossroad are the top 3 critical road features. Intersection crashes are frequent but are not highly likely to result in severe injuries compared to critical road features. Roundabouts are least likely to result in both severe and moderate injuries. Female drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes at intersections (4-way and T) compared to male drivers. Adult drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes at underpasses. Older drivers are 1.6 times more likely to be involved in a crash at the end or beginning of a divided highway. The findings from this research help to identify critical road features that need to be given priority. As an example, additional advanced warning signs and providing enlarged or highly retroreflective signs that grab the attention of older drivers may help in making locations such as end or beginning of a divided highway much safer. Educating drivers about the necessary skill sets required at critical road features in addition to engineering solutions may further help them adopt safe driving behaviors on the road.

  10. Drug and Alcohol Involvement in Four Types of Fatal Crashes*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Eduardo; Voas, Robert B.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the relationship of drunk and drugged driving to the occurrence of fatal crashes associated with speeding, failure to obey/yield, inattention, and seat belt nonuse. Method: We examined data for fatally injured drivers involved in single-vehicle crashes killed in states in which more than 79% of the drivers were tested for drugs other than alcohol and had a known result. Results: About 25% of the drivers tested positive for drugs, a figure almost double that estimated by the 2007 National Roadside Survey. Cannabinoids and stimulants each contributed to about 23% of the drug-positive results (6% among all fatally injured single-vehicle drivers). Stimulants more than cannabinoids were found to be associated with the four types of crashes under study. Some drugs showed a protective effect over the four crash types under study. Significant interactions between drugs and alcohol were observed. Stimulants contributed to the different types of fatal crashes irrespective of the levels of alcohol consumed by the drivers. Conclusions: This study provides further evidence of a link between drug consumption and fatal crashes. It also opens the door to some interesting and sometimes unexpected questions regarding the way drugs contribute to crashes, which we found varies depending on the type of crash considered, the class of drug, and the presence of alcohol. Research is also needed on drugs that could have a protective effect on the occurrence of fatal crashes. These findings could be highly relevant to the design of drug-related traffic laws and programs targeted at curbing drugged driving. PMID:21683038

  11. CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING FINANCIAL STABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MERCEA PATRICIA AMALIA

    2018-02-01

    target digital coin concepts, use in distributed real-time payment systems of blockchain technologology, artificial intelligence, and information security. However, a large number of economists admit that the current crisis has emphasized the overcoming of the limits of (mainstream economics and its implications in the field of financial regulation and the sphere of monetary policy that should focus not only on price stability, but also on financial stability. In other words, the banks, the financial institutions must be obliged to hold a minimal countercyclical capital and mandatory reserves that should be large enough to cope with the turmoil generated by the decrease of the asset prices and the liquidity risk. In macroprudential policy, the “shadow banking system” (investment banks, hedge funds, private equity funds must also be included.Last but not least, the central banks have to cooperate with the other categories of systemic risk managers: Financial Stability Oversight Council-FSOC (USA, European Systemic Risk Board-ESRB (EU, Financial Policy Committee-FPC (Great Britain, National Committee for Financial Stability-CNSF (Romania.

  12. A statistical physics perspective on criticality in financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believed to be critical by analogy to physical systems, but little statistically founded evidence has been given. Through a data-based methodology and comparison to simulations inspired by the statistical physics of complex systems, we show that the Dow Jones and index sets are not rigorously critical. However, financial systems are closer to criticality in the crash neighborhood. (paper)

  13. Financial Analysis of the World Top IT Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina ROMANCIUC

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial crisis has influenced all the economiesaround the world. A similar situation happened during the ITcrash. Some, even, believe the crash of the dot-com bubblecontributed to the actual situation. The rush for financialsuccess led to a whole generation of young adults immersingthemselves in technology. Nevertheless IT has an importantinfluence on nowadays economy this is the reason of thepresent study. Here will be presented one of the world largestcompanies in IT and analyzed using few financial methods(comparative statements, ratio analysis, cash flow analysis.

  14. Financial crimes and financial misdemeanours

    OpenAIRE

    Bamford, Colin

    2007-01-01

    The author argues that undesirable behaviour in the financial markets has not been countered by appropriate controls. Article by Colin Bamford (Barrister, 3-4 South Square) published in Amicus Curiae - Journal of the Society for Advanced Legal Studies. The Journal is produced by the Society for Advanced Legal Studies at the Institute of Advanced Legal Studies, University of London.

  15. From Board to Bedside: How the Application of Financial Structures to Safety and Quality Can Drive Accountability in a Large Health Care System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, J Matthew; Demski, Renee; Callender, Tiffany; Lee, K H Ken; Hoffman, Ann; Allen, Lisa; Radke, Deborah A; Kim, Yungjin; Werthman, Ronald J; Peterson, Ronald R; Pronovost, Peter J

    2017-04-01

    As the health care system in the United States places greater emphasis on the public reporting of quality and safety data and its use to determine payment, provider organizations must implement structures that ensure discipline and rigor regarding these data. An academic health system, as part of a performance management system, applied four key components of a financial reporting structure to support the goal of top-to-bottom accountability for improving quality and safety. The four components implemented by Johns Hopkins Medicine were governance, accountability, reporting of consolidated quality performance statements, and auditing. Governance is provided by the health system's Patient Safety and Quality Board Committee, which reviews goals and strategy for patient safety and quality, reviews quarterly performance for each entity, and holds organizational leaders accountable for performance. An accountability plan includes escalating levels of review corresponding to the number of months an entity misses the defined performance target for a measure. A consolidated quality statement helps inform the Patient Safety and Quality Board Committee and leadership on key quality and safety issues. An audit evaluates the efficiency and effectiveness of processes for data collection, validation, and storage, as to ensure the accuracy and completeness of quality measure reporting. If hospitals and health systems truly want to prioritize improvements in safety and quality, they will need to create a performance management system that ensures data validity and supports performance accountability. Without valid data, it is difficult to know whether a performance gap is due to data quality or clinical quality. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Overview of the Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT) Full Scale Crash Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annett, Martin; Littell, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT) full-scale tests were performed at NASA Langley Research Center's Landing and Impact Research Facility in 2013 and 2014. Two CH-46E airframes were impacted at 33-ft/s forward and 25-ft/s vertical combined velocities onto soft soil, which represents a severe, but potentially survivable impact scenario. TRACT 1 provided a baseline set of responses, while TRACT 2 included retrofits with composite subfloors and other crash system improvements based on TRACT 1. For TRACT 2, a total of 18 unique experiments were conducted to evaluate Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATD) responses, seat and restraint performance, cargo restraint effectiveness, patient litter behavior, and activation of emergency locator transmitters and crash sensors. Combinations of Hybrid II, Hybrid III, and ES-2 ATDs were placed in forward and side facing seats and occupant results were compared against injury criteria. The structural response of the airframe was assessed based on accelerometers located throughout the airframe and using three-dimensional photogrammetric techniques. Analysis of the photogrammetric data indicated regions of maximum deflection and permanent deformation. The response of TRACT 2 was noticeably different in the horizontal direction due to changes in the cabin configuration and soil surface, with higher acceleration and damage occurring in the cabin. Loads from ATDs in energy absorbing seats and restraints were within injury limits. Severe injury was likely for ATDs in forward facing passenger seats.

  17. Minor Crashes and ‘Whiplash’ in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Bartsch, Adam J.; Gilbertson, Lars G.; Prakash, Vikas; Morr, Douglas R.; Wiechel, John F.

    2008-01-01

    In the United States there is currently a paucity of available real world minor rear crash data with struck vehicle delta-V, or speed change, less than or equal to 15 kilometers per hour. These data are essential as researchers attempt to define ‘whiplash’ injury risk potential in these minor crashes. This study analyzed a new set of 105 U.S. minor rear aligned crashes between passenger vehicles. Mean struck vehicle delta-V and acceleration were 6.3 km/h (s.d. = 2.1 km/h) and 1.4g (s.d. = 0.5...

  18. Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S.

    2001-03-23

    As part of this research effort, we developed a new methodology for projecting elderly traffic crash fatalities. This methodology separates exposure to crashes from crash risk per se, and further divides exposure into two components, the number of miles driven and the likelihood of being a driver. This component structure permits conceptually different determinants of traffic fatalities to be projected separately and has thorough motivation in behavioral theory. It also permits finer targeting of particular aspects of projections that need improvement and closer linking of projections to possible policy instruments for influencing them.

  19. Construct exploit constraint in crash analysis by bypassing canary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ning; Huang, Shuguang; Huang, Hui; Chang, Chao

    2017-08-01

    Selective symbolic execution is a common program testing technology. Developed on the basis of it, some crash analysis systems are often used to test the fragility of the program by constructing exploit constraints, such as CRAX. From the study of crash analysis based on symbolic execution, this paper find that this technology cannot bypass the canary stack protection mechanisms. This paper makes the improvement uses the API hook in Linux. Experimental results show that the use of API hook can effectively solve the problem that crash analysis cannot bypass the canary protection.

  20. Suicide plane crash against nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richard, A.

    2002-01-01

    Cea (French atomic energy commission) and EDF (Electricity of France) are reassessing their safety standards concerning suicide plane attacks against nuclear facilities. The general idea is to study the non-linear behaviour of reinforced concrete in case of mechanical impact. American studies carried out in 1988 show that a F-14 phantom crashing into a 3,6 meter thick wall at a speed of 774 km/h penetrates only the first 5 cm of the wall. More recent studies performed in Germany and based on computerized simulations show that the reactor containment can sustain impacts from a F15 plane or even from a 747-Boeing but contiguous buildings like the one which houses spent fuels might be more easily damaged because of their metal roofing. (A.C.)

  1. Toward an Effective Long-Term Strategy for Preventing Motor Vehicle Crashes and Injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony R. Mawson

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Casualties due to motor vehicle crashes (MVCs include some 40,000 deaths each year in the United States and one million deaths worldwide. One strategy that has been recommended for improving automobile safety is to lower speed limits and enforce them with speed cameras. However, motor vehicles can be hazardous even at low speeds whereas properly protected human beings can survive high-speed crashes without injury. Emphasis on changing driver behavior as the focus for road safety improvements has been largely unsuccessful; moreover, drivers today are increasingly distracted by secondary tasks such as cell phone use and texting. Indeed, the true limiting factor in vehicular safety is the capacity of human beings to sense and process information and to make rapid decisions. Given that dramatic reductions in injuries and deaths from MVCs have occurred over the past century due to improvements in safety technology, despite increases in the number of vehicles on the road and miles driven per vehicle, we propose that an effective long-term strategy for reducing MVC-related injury would be continued technological innovation in vehicle design, aimed at progressively removing the driver from routine operational decision-making. Once this is achieved, high rates of speed could be achieved on open highways, with minimal risk of crashes and injury to occupants and pedestrians.

  2. Toward an effective long-term strategy for preventing motor vehicle crashes and injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mawson, Anthony R; Walley, E Kenneth

    2014-08-11

    Casualties due to motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) include some 40,000 deaths each year in the United States and one million deaths worldwide. One strategy that has been recommended for improving automobile safety is to lower speed limits and enforce them with speed cameras. However, motor vehicles can be hazardous even at low speeds whereas properly protected human beings can survive high-speed crashes without injury. Emphasis on changing driver behavior as the focus for road safety improvements has been largely unsuccessful; moreover, drivers today are increasingly distracted by secondary tasks such as cell phone use and texting. Indeed, the true limiting factor in vehicular safety is the capacity of human beings to sense and process information and to make rapid decisions. Given that dramatic reductions in injuries and deaths from MVCs have occurred over the past century due to improvements in safety technology, despite increases in the number of vehicles on the road and miles driven per vehicle, we propose that an effective long-term strategy for reducing MVC-related injury would be continued technological innovation in vehicle design, aimed at progressively removing the driver from routine operational decision-making. Once this is achieved, high rates of speed could be achieved on open highways, with minimal risk of crashes and injury to occupants and pedestrians.

  3. Reducing alcohol-impaired driving crashes through the use of social marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, Michael L; Mastin, Beth; Miller, Thomas W

    2006-11-01

    Over the past decade there has been little decrease in the number of alcohol-related driving fatalities. During this time most interventions have been educational or legal. This paper presents the results of a field experiment that used social marketing to introduce a new ride program into three rural communities. Almost all people in the 21-34-year-old target know that they should not drive while impaired, and most agree it is not a good thing to do, but for many the opportunity to behave properly does not exist. The Road Crew program was developed using new product development techniques and implemented by developing broad coalitions within the communities. A key feature of the program included rides to, between, and home from bars in older luxury vehicles. Results showed a significant shift in riding/driving behavior, especially among 21-34-year olds, a projected 17% decline in alcohol-related crashes in the first year, no increase in drinking behavior, and large savings between the reactive cost of cleaning up after a crash and the proactive cost of avoiding a crash. Programs have become self-sustaining based on fares and tavern contributions, and have become part of the life style in the treatment communities.

  4. A multinomial-logit ordered-probit model for jointly analyzing crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    ' propensity to engage in various corrective maneuvers in the case of the critical event of vehicle travelling. Five lateral and speed control maneuvers are considered: “braking”, “steering”, “braking & steering”, and “other maneuvers”, in addition to a “no action” option. The analyzed data are retrieved from...... the United States National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the years 2005-2009. Results show (i) the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, and (ii) the link between drivers' attributes, risky driving behavior, road characteristics...

  5. Financial Advice: An Improvement for Worse?

    OpenAIRE

    Karabulut, Yigitcan

    2010-01-01

    Using a unique administrative data set from a large German commercial bank, this paper aims to ascertain the role of financial advisors in individual portfolios. Following on the heels of the ongoing regulatory and political debate as to the merits of financial advice, we focus in this paper on three key issues. First, we examine whether collaboration with financial advisors attains to better performing portfolios. Second, we investigate whether the involvement of financial advisors mitigates...

  6. Morocco; Financial System Stability Assessment: Update

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an update to the Financial System Stability Assessment on Morocco. Major reforms have been achieved since the 2002 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) within a policy of actively promoting economic and financial sector opening. The 2002 FSAP recommendations have been largely implemented. Although the financial system is stable and considerably more robust than in the past, the liberalization of capital flows and increased exchange rate flexibility present challenges...

  7. Aircraft crash upon a containment structure of a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paul, D.K.; Abbas, H.; Godbole, P.N.; Nayak, G.C.

    1993-01-01

    The reinforced concrete outer containment of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required to be designed to withstand the impact of aircraft and aircrash debris etc. The problem is of strategic significance because the damage caused to the structure by these missiles may lead to the leakage of nuclear radiations. The safety design of NPP against aircraft crash requires the evaluation of crash probability. If the probability is smaller than the allowable value then the aircraft crash is neglected as design basis item. Otherwise adequate measures are taken to bring the released radioactive material within the permissible limit. The aircrafts and their striking velocity to be considered in the design of a structure are decided by the accident analysis. The probabilistic aspect of the problem has not been covered in the present work. The non-affordability of coupled analysis of large problems like aircraft crash on NPP, automobile impact on a structure etc. due to the requirement of excessive amount of manual as well as computer time and storage compels us to switch over to the uncoupled analysis. Moreover, the results of coupled analysis are heavily influenced by the analyst's modelling technique and choice of increment size. It is uncoupling of the missile and the target which converts the impact load to the impulse load. This impulse can be found by taking into consideration only the inertial and stiffness properties of missile and considering the target to be rigid. Though the impulse load so obtained disregards the inertial and stiffness characteristics of the target but its effect can be incorporated by modifying it for the inertial and stiffness properties of target at different time steps as we march in time domain during the analysis of the target

  8. Weathering the financial storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursson, Thórarinn G.

    2011-01-01

    The recent global financial tsunami has had economic consequences that have not been witnessed since the Great Depression. But while some countries suffered a particularly large contraction in economic activity on top of a system-wide banking collapse, others came off relatively lightly. In this ......The recent global financial tsunami has had economic consequences that have not been witnessed since the Great Depression. But while some countries suffered a particularly large contraction in economic activity on top of a system-wide banking collapse, others came off relatively lightly...... pegs outside EMU were hit particularly hard, while inflation targeting seemed to mitigate the crisis. Finally, we find some evidence suggesting a role for international real linkages and institutional credibility. Our key results are robust to various alterations in the empirical setup and we are able...

  9. MOTORCYCLE CRASH PREDICTION MODEL FOR NON-SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. HARNEN

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to develop a prediction model for motorcycle crashes at non-signalized intersections on urban roads in Malaysia. The Generalized Linear Modeling approach was used to develop the model. The final model revealed that an increase in motorcycle and non-motorcycle flows entering an intersection is associated with an increase in motorcycle crashes. Non-motorcycle flow on major road had the greatest effect on the probability of motorcycle crashes. Approach speed, lane width, number of lanes, shoulder width and land use were also found to be significant in explaining motorcycle crashes. The model should assist traffic engineers to decide the need for appropriate intersection treatment that specifically designed for non-exclusive motorcycle lane facilities.

  10. Motorcycle crash causes and outcomes: pilot study : traffic tech.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-01

    The number of motorcyclist crash-related fatalities has more than doubled during the past 10 years. In the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), Congress directed the Secretary of Transport...

  11. Preliminary plan for case-control crash risk study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-31

    The goal of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is to reduce commercial vehicle-related fatalities and injuries. This is achieved through a thorough understanding of crash characteristics, precursors, and risk factors. This will h...

  12. Solutions for acceleration measurement in vehicle crash tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dima, D. S.; Covaciu, D.

    2017-10-01

    Crash tests are useful for validating computer simulations of road traffic accidents. One of the most important parameters measured is the acceleration. The evolution of acceleration versus time, during a crash test, form a crash pulse. The correctness of the crash pulse determination depends on the data acquisition system used. Recommendations regarding the instrumentation for impact tests are given in standards, which are focused on the use of accelerometers as impact sensors. The goal of this paper is to present the device and software developed by authors for data acquisition and processing. The system includes two accelerometers with different input ranges, a processing unit based on a 32-bit microcontroller and a data logging unit with SD card. Data collected on card, as text files, is processed with a dedicated software running on personal computers. The processing is based on diagrams and includes the digital filters recommended in standards.

  13. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  14. Finite Element Crash Simulations and Impact-Induced Injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Mackerle

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available This bibliography lists references to papers, conference proceedings and theses/dissertations dealing with finite element simulations of crashes, impact-induced injuries and their protection that were published in 1980–1998. 390 citations are listed.

  15. Pedestrian and bicycle crash data analysis : 2005-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-03

    The safety of pedestrians and bicyclists using the roadway is an increasing concern for the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT). This report summarizes data for motor vehicle crashes involving pedestrians and bicyclists in Michigan from 2005...

  16. Crash Data Improvement Program : An RSPCB Peer Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-04

    This report provides a summary of the Crash Data Improvement Program (CDIP) peer : exchange sponsored by the Federal Highway Administrations (FHWA) Office of Safety : on August 4, 2011. The peer exchange was hosted in conjunction with the annual :...

  17. Relationship between organisational safety culture dimensions and crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varmazyar, Sakineh; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Arghami, Shirazeh; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim

    2016-01-01

    Knowing about organisational safety culture in public transportation system can provide an appropriate guide to establish effective safety measures and interventions to improve safety at work. The aim of this study was investigation of association between safety culture dimensions (leadership styles and company values, usage of crashes information and prevention programmes, management commitment and safety policy, participation and control) with involved self-reported crashes. The associations were considered through Spearman correlation, Pearson chi-square test and logistic regression. The results showed an association among self-reported crashes (occurrence or non-occurrence) and factors including leadership styles and company values; management commitment and safety policy; and control. Moreover, it was found a negative correlation and an odds ratio less than one between control and self-reported crashes.

  18. Maintenance program decision-making utilizing crash data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    This document describes methods that may be used by UDOT Maintenance personnel to improve highway safety. Four programs have been recommended using crash data to make more informed decisions concerning maintenance programs as follows: : Snow & Ic...

  19. Evaluating the police service quality for handling traffic crash reporting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær; Kaplan, Sigal; Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The phenomenon of traffic crash under-reporting has been extensively documented in terms of its extent, but not equally analysed in terms of its reasons. As police distrust has been recently identified as a major reason for crash under-reporting, the purpose of this paper is to look...... at the police service quality for handling the reporting of traffic crashes. Design/methodology/approach This study introduces a novel approach to evaluate service quality that combines multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with latent class analysis (LCA). Moreover, this study presents the design of a web......-based survey on the basis of the SERVQUAL approach to detecting strengths, opportunities and threats with crash reporting to the police at a strategic level. Transportation stakeholders (e.g. researchers, authorities, consultants, NGO representatives, suppliers) with an interest in traffic safety in Denmark...

  20. Traffic crash involvement: experiential driving knowledge and stressful contextual antecedents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legree, Peter J; Heffner, Tonia S; Psotka, Joseph; Martin, Daniel E; Medsker, Gina J

    2003-02-01

    Researchers have rarely examined stressful environments and psychological characteristics as predictors of driving behavior in the same study. The authors hypothesized that (a) safer drivers more accurately assess physical and emotional traffic hazards and (b) stress and emotional states elevate crash risk. The hypotheses were evaluated with procedural and declarative tacit driving knowledge tests requiring assessment of emotional and contextual hazards and with accident reports describing crash antecedents, including stressful events and environmental conditions. Analyses identified separate driving knowledge factors corresponding to emotional and contextual hazards that were significantly related to the crash criteria. Accident report analyses show that stress significantly elevates at-fault crash risk. The results demonstrate the importance of experiential knowledge acquired without instruction (procedural or tacit knowledge) and provide safety recommendations.

  1. Heavy Vehicle Crash Characteristics in Oman; 2009–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam Al-Bulushi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, Oman has seen a shift in the burden of diseases towards road accidents. The main objective of this paper, therefore, is to describe key characteristics of heavy vehicle crashes in Oman and identify the key driving behaviours that influence fatality risks. Crash data from January 2009 to December 2011 were examined and it was found that, of the 22,543 traffic accidents that occurred within this timeframe, 3,114 involved heavy vehicles. While the majority of these crashes were attributed to driver behaviours, a small proportion was attributed to other factors. The results of the study indicate that there is a need for a more thorough crash investigation process in Oman. Future research should explore the reporting processes used by the Royal Oman Police, cultural influences on heavy vehicle operations in Oman and improvements to the current licensing system.

  2. Data mining the Kansas traffic-crash database : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    Traffic crashes results from the interaction of different parameters which includes highway geometrics, traffic characteristics and human factors. Geometric variables include number of lanes, lane width, median width, shoulder width, roadway section ...

  3. Data mining the Kansas traffic-crash database : summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    Traffic crashes results from the interaction of different parameters which includes highway geometrics, traffic : characteristics and human factors. Geometric variables include number of lanes, lane width, median width, shoulder : width, roadway sect...

  4. Geo-demographic analysis of fatal motorcycle crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the combined motor vehicle crash data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) with the Claritas geo-demographic database from the lifestyle perspective to determine the appropriate media to use in ...

  5. Emotion and financial markets

    OpenAIRE

    Lucy F. Ackert; Bryan K. Church; Richard Deaves

    2003-01-01

    Psychologists and economists hold vastly different views about human behavior. Psychologists contend that economists' models bear little relation to actual behavior. This view is supported by a large body of psychological research that shows that emotional state can significantly affect decision making. ; Economists, on the other hand, argue that psychological studies have no theoretical basis and offer little empirical evidence about people's decision-making processes. The reigning financial...

  6. Minor Crashes and ‘Whiplash’ in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Adam J.; Gilbertson, Lars G.; Prakash, Vikas; Morr, Douglas R.; Wiechel, John F.

    2008-01-01

    In the United States there is currently a paucity of available real world minor rear crash data with struck vehicle delta-V, or speed change, less than or equal to 15 kilometers per hour. These data are essential as researchers attempt to define ‘whiplash’ injury risk potential in these minor crashes. This study analyzed a new set of 105 U.S. minor rear aligned crashes between passenger vehicles. Mean struck vehicle delta-V and acceleration were 6.3 km/h (s.d. = 2.1 km/h) and 1.4g (s.d. = 0.5g), respectively. A total of 113 struck vehicle occupants were diagnosed within five weeks post-crash with 761 ICD-9-CM complaints and 427 AIS injuries (99.5% AIS1) attributed to the crashes. No striking vehicle occupants reported complaints. The main ICD-9-CM diagnoses were 40.6% cervical, 22.5% lumbar/sacral and 10.2% thoracic and the main AIS1 diagnoses were 29.7% cervical, 23.2% lumbar/sacral and 14.3% thoracic. The diagnosis disparity was mainly due to coding for pre-existing degenerative diagnosis in ICD-9-CM. Degenerative spine conditions were not significant for increased AIS1 injury risk. Surprisingly, many non-‘whiplash’ diagnoses were found. The AIS injury diagnosis distribution and frequency in these minor delta-V crashes did not correspond with previous minor rear crash studies. A prospectively collected and unbiased minor rear crash databank in the model of CIREN or NASS is highly desirable to verify or refute these results for the U.S. population since the current study cohort may have been influenced by litigation. PMID:19026229

  7. Minor crashes and 'whiplash' in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Adam J; Gilbertson, Lars G; Prakash, Vikas; Morr, Douglas R; Wiechel, John F

    2008-10-01

    In the United States there is currently a paucity of available real world minor rear crash data with struck vehicle delta-V, or speed change, less than or equal to 15 kilometers per hour. These data are essential as researchers attempt to define 'whiplash' injury risk potential in these minor crashes. This study analyzed a new set of 105 U.S. minor rear aligned crashes between passenger vehicles. Mean struck vehicle delta-V and acceleration were 6.3 km/h (s.d. = 2.1 km/h) and 1.4 g (s.d. = 0.5 g), respectively. A total of 113 struck vehicle occupants were diagnosed within five weeks post-crash with 761 ICD-9-CM complaints and 427 AIS injuries (99.5% AIS1) attributed to the crashes. No striking vehicle occupants reported complaints. The main ICD-9-CM diagnoses were 40.6% cervical, 22.5% lumbar/sacral and 10.2% thoracic and the main AIS1 diagnoses were 29.7% cervical, 23.2% lumbar/sacral and 14.3% thoracic. The diagnosis disparity was mainly due to coding for pre-existing degenerative diagnosis in ICD-9-CM. Degenerative spine conditions were not significant for increased AIS1 injury risk. Surprisingly, many non-'whiplash' diagnoses were found. The AIS injury diagnosis distribution and frequency in these minor delta-V crashes did not correspond with previous minor rear crash studies. A prospectively collected and unbiased minor rear crash databank in the model of CIREN or NASS is highly desirable to verify or refute these results for the U.S. population since the current study cohort may have been influenced by litigation.

  8. Cell phone use while driving and attributable crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Charles M; Braitman, Keli A; Lund, Adrian K

    2010-10-01

    Prior research has estimated that crash risk is 4 times higher when talking on a cell phone versus not talking. The objectives of this study were to estimate the extent to which drivers talk on cell phones while driving and to compute the implied annual number of crashes that could have been avoided if driver cell phone use were restricted. A national survey of approximately 1200 U.S. drivers was conducted. Respondents were asked to approximate the amount of time spent driving during a given day, number of cell phone calls made or received, and amount of driving time spent talking on a cell phone. Population attributable risk (PAR) was computed for each combination of driver gender, driver age, day of week, and time of day. These were multiplied by the corresponding crash counts to estimate the number of crashes that could have been avoided. On average, drivers were talking on cell phones approximately 7 percent of the time while driving. Rates were higher on weekdays (8%), in the afternoon and evening (8%), and for drivers younger than 30 (16%). Based on these use rates, restricting cell phones while driving could have prevented an estimated 22 percent (i.e., 1.3 million) of the crashes in 2008. Although increased rates of cell phone use while driving should be leading to increased crash rates, crash rates have been declining. Reasons for this paradox are unclear. One possibility is that the increase in cell phone use and crash risk due to cell phone use have been overestimated. Another possibility is that cell phone use has supplanted other driving distractions that were similarly hazardous.

  9. Financial Statements Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Tănase Alin-Eliodor

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on analyzing of a consolidated financial statements of a hypothetically SME. The interpretation of the financial position and performances is based on the more than 40 financial key ratios computed by using financial data from consolidated income statement, consolidated financial position and cash flow. However additional data from notes to financial statements are provided.

  10. Structural Integrity Assessment of Reactor Containment Subjected to Aircraft Crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Junyong; Chang, Yoonsuk

    2013-01-01

    When an accident occurs at the NPP, containment building which acts as the last barrier should be assessed and analyzed structural integrity by internal loading or external loading. On many occasions that can occur in the containment internal such as LOCA(Loss Of Coolant Accident) are already reflected to design. Likewise, there are several kinds of accidents that may occur from the outside of containment such as earthquakes, hurricanes and strong wind. However, aircraft crash that at outside of containment is not reflected yet in domestic because NPP sites have been selected based on the probabilistic method. After intentional aircraft crash such as World Trade Center and Pentagon accident in US, social awareness for safety of infrastructure like NPP was raised world widely and it is time for assessment of aircraft crash in domestic. The object of this paper is assessment of reactor containment subjected to aircraft crash by FEM(Finite Element Method). In this paper, assessment of structural integrity of containment building subjected to certain aircraft crash was carried out. Verification of structure integrity of containment by intentional severe accident. Maximum stress 61.21MPa of horizontal shell crash does not penetrate containment. Research for more realistic results needed by steel reinforced concrete model

  11. Three Cases of Spine Fractures after an Airplane Crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Han Joo; Moon, Bong Ju; Pennant, William A; Shin, Dong Ah; Kim, Keung Nyun; Yoon, Do Heum; Ha, Yoon

    2015-10-01

    While injuries to the spine after an airplane crash are not rare, most crashes result in fatal injuries. As such, few studies exist that reported on spine fractures sustained during airplane accidents. In this report, we demonstrate three cases of spine fractures due to crash landing of a commercial airplane. Three passengers perished from injuries after the crash landing, yet most of the passengers and crew on board survived, with injuries ranging from minor to severe. Through evaluating our three spine fracture patients, it was determined that compression fracture of the spine was the primary injury related to the airplane accident. The first patient was a 20-year-old female who sustained a T6-8 compression fracture without neurologic deterioration. The second patient was a 33-year-old female with an L2 compression fracture, and the last patient was a 49-year-old male patient with a T8 compression fracture. All three patients were managed conservatively and required spinal orthotics. During the crash, each of these patients were subjected to direct, downward high gravity z-axis (Gz) force, which gave rise to load on the spine vertically, thereby causing compression fracture. Therefore, new safety methods should be developed to prevent excessive Gz force during airplane crash landings.

  12. Fatal motorcycle crashes: a growing public health problem in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehler, Douglas R; Ear, Chariya; Parker, Erin M; Sem, Panhavuth; Ballesteros, Michael F

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the risk characteristics of fatal motorcycle crashes in Cambodia over a 5-year period (2007-2011). Secondary data analyses were conducted using the Cambodia Road Crash and Victim Information System, the only comprehensive and integrated road crash surveillance system in the country. Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Handicap International found that (1) males are dying in motorcycle crashes roughly seven times more frequently than females; (2) motorcyclist fatalities increased by about 30% from 2007 to 2011; (3) the motorcyclist death rates per 100,000 population increased from 7.4 to 8.7 deaths from 2007 to 2011; and (4) speed-related crashes and not wearing motorcycle helmet were commonly reported for motorcyclist fatalities at approximately 50% and over 80% through the study years, respectively. Additionally, this study highlights that Cambodia has the highest motorcycle death rate in South-East Asia, far surpassing Thailand, Malaysia, and Myanmar. By recognising the patterns of fatal motorcycle crashes in Cambodia, local road-safety champions and stakeholders can design targeted interventions and preventative measures to improve road safety among motorcyclists.

  13. Statistical modeling of total crash frequency at highway intersections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash M. Roshandeh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Intersection-related crashes are associated with high proportion of accidents involving drivers, occupants, pedestrians, and cyclists. In general, the purpose of intersection safety analysis is to determine the impact of safety-related variables on pedestrians, cyclists and vehicles, so as to facilitate the design of effective and efficient countermeasure strategies to improve safety at intersections. This study investigates the effects of traffic, environmental, intersection geometric and pavement-related characteristics on total crash frequencies at intersections. A random-parameter Poisson model was used with crash data from 357 signalized intersections in Chicago from 2004 to 2010. The results indicate that out of the identified factors, evening peak period traffic volume, pavement condition, and unlighted intersections have the greatest effects on crash frequencies. Overall, the results seek to suggest that, in order to improve effective highway-related safety countermeasures at intersections, significant attention must be focused on ensuring that pavements are adequately maintained and intersections should be well lighted. It needs to be mentioned that, projects could be implemented at and around the study intersections during the study period (7 years, which could affect the crash frequency over the time. This is an important variable which could be a part of the future studies to investigate the impacts of safety-related works at intersections and their marginal effects on crash frequency at signalized intersections.

  14. Three Cases of Spine Fractures after an Airplane Crash

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Han Joo; Moon, Bong Ju; Pennant, William A.; Shin, Dong Ah; Kim, Keung Nyun; Yoon, Do Heum

    2015-01-01

    While injuries to the spine after an airplane crash are not rare, most crashes result in fatal injuries. As such, few studies exist that reported on spine fractures sustained during airplane accidents. In this report, we demonstrate three cases of spine fractures due to crash landing of a commercial airplane. Three passengers perished from injuries after the crash landing, yet most of the passengers and crew on board survived, with injuries ranging from minor to severe. Through evaluating our three spine fracture patients, it was determined that compression fracture of the spine was the primary injury related to the airplane accident. The first patient was a 20-year-old female who sustained a T6-8 compression fracture without neurologic deterioration. The second patient was a 33-year-old female with an L2 compression fracture, and the last patient was a 49-year-old male patient with a T8 compression fracture. All three patients were managed conservatively and required spinal orthotics. During the crash, each of these patients were subjected to direct, downward high gravity z-axis (Gz) force, which gave rise to load on the spine vertically, thereby causing compression fracture. Therefore, new safety methods should be developed to prevent excessive Gz force during airplane crash landings. PMID:27169094

  15. Development of a prediction model for crash occurrence by analyzing traffic crash and citation data : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-30

    It is commonly acknowledged that factors such as human factors, vehicle characteristics, road design and environmental factors highly contribute to the occurrence of traffic crashes (WHO, 2004). Since human factors usually have the most significant i...

  16. Understanding Financial Statements. Financial Matters. Board Basics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, John H.; Turner, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    This booklet for trustees of higher education institutions offers guidelines to help trustees understand the institution's financial statements. Individual sections describe the three major financial statements and cover topics such as: (1) standards of the Financial Accounting Standards Board; (2) the "statement of financial position,"…

  17. GLOBALIZATION OF FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ISLAMIC FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

    OpenAIRE

    KHAN, M. ALI

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, I reflect on the implications of financial globalization for Islamic financial institutions in terms of coordinates selected from both history and theory. I present in outline the 18th century case for and against commerce, the 19th century case for and against a central institution acting as a lender of last resort, and modern theoretical developments in finance and insurance based on the law of large numbers and centered around the notions of arbitrage, naive and efficient di...

  18. How the 2008 stock market crash and seasons affect total and cardiac deaths in Los Angeles County.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Bryan Glen; Pezzullo, John Christopher; McDonald, Scott Andrew; Poole, William Kenneth; Kloner, Robert Alan

    2012-05-15

    Various stressors trigger cardiac death. The objective was to investigate a possible relation between a stock market crash and cardiac death in a large population within the United States. We obtained daily stock market data (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index), death certificate data for daily deaths in Los Angeles County (LA), and annual LA population estimates for 2005 through 2008. The 4 years death rate curves (2005 through 2008) were averaged into a single curve to illustrate annual trends. Data were "deseasonalized" by subtracting from the daily observed value the average value for that day of year. There was marked seasonal variation in total and cardiac death rates. Even in the mild LA climate, death rates were higher in winter versus summer including total death (+17%), circulatory death (+24%), coronary heart disease death (+28%), and myocardial infarction death (+38%) rates (p stock market crash in October 2008 did not affect death rates in LA. Death rates remained at or below seasonal averages during the stock market crash. In conclusion, after correcting for seasonal variation, the stock market crash in October 2008 was not associated with an increase in total or cardiac death in LA. Annual coronary heart disease death rates continue to decrease. However, seasonal variation (specifically winter) remains a trigger for death and coronary heart disease death even in LA where winters are mild. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Application of all relevant feature selection for failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paja, W.; Wrzesień, M.; Niemiec, R.; Rudnicki, W. R.

    2015-07-01

    The climate models are extremely complex pieces of software. They reflect best knowledge on physical components of the climate, nevertheless, they contain several parameters, which are too weakly constrained by observations, and can potentially lead to a crash of simulation. Recently a study by Lucas et al. (2013) has shown that machine learning methods can be used for predicting which combinations of parameters can lead to crash of simulation, and hence which processes described by these parameters need refined analyses. In the current study we reanalyse the dataset used in this research using different methodology. We confirm the main conclusion of the original study concerning suitability of machine learning for prediction of crashes. We show, that only three of the eight parameters indicated in the original study as relevant for prediction of the crash are indeed strongly relevant, three other are relevant but redundant, and two are not relevant at all. We also show that the variance due to split of data between training and validation sets has large influence both on accuracy of predictions and relative importance of variables, hence only cross-validated approach can deliver robust prediction of performance and relevance of variables.

  20. Application of all-relevant feature selection for the failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paja, Wiesław; Wrzesien, Mariusz; Niemiec, Rafał; Rudnicki, Witold R.

    2016-03-01

    Climate models are extremely complex pieces of software. They reflect the best knowledge on the physical components of the climate; nevertheless, they contain several parameters, which are too weakly constrained by observations, and can potentially lead to a simulation crashing. Recently a study by Lucas et al. (2013) has shown that machine learning methods can be used for predicting which combinations of parameters can lead to the simulation crashing and hence which processes described by these parameters need refined analyses. In the current study we reanalyse the data set used in this research using different methodology. We confirm the main conclusion of the original study concerning the suitability of machine learning for the prediction of crashes. We show that only three of the eight parameters indicated in the original study as relevant for prediction of the crash are indeed strongly relevant, three others are relevant but redundant and two are not relevant at all. We also show that the variance due to the split of data between training and validation sets has a large influence both on the accuracy of predictions and on the relative importance of variables; hence only a cross-validated approach can deliver a robust prediction of performance and relevance of variables.

  1. Analysis of delta velocity and PDOF by means of collision partner and structural involvement in real-life crash pulses with modern passenger cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iraeus, Johan; Lindquist, Mats

    2014-01-01

    In the widely used National Automotive Sampling System (NASS)-Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) database, summary metrics that describe crashes are available. Crash angle or principal direction of force (PDOF) is estimated by the crash examiner and velocity changes (ΔV) in the x- and y-directions are calculated by the WinSMASH computer program using PDOF and results from rigid barrier crash testing combined with deformations of the crashed car. In recent years, results from event data recorders (EDRs) have been added to the database. The aim of this study is to compare both PDOF and ΔV between EDR measurements and WinSMASH calculations. NASS-CDS inclusion criteria were model-year 2000 through 2010 automobiles, frontal crashes with ΔV higher than 16 km/h, and the pulse entirely recorded in the EDR module. This resulted in 649 cases. The subject vehicles were further examined and characterized with regard to frontal structure engagement (large or small overlap) as well as collision properties of the partner (impact location; front, side, or back) or object. The EDR crash angle was calculated as the angle between the lateral and longitudinal ΔV at the time of peak longitudinal ΔV. This angle was compared to the NASS-CDS investigator's estimated PDOF with regard to structural engagement and the collision partner or object. Multiple linear regression was used to establish adjustment factors on ΔV and crash angle between the results calculated based on EDR recorded data and that estimated in NASS-CDS. According to this study, simulation in the newest WinSMASH version (2008) underestimates EDR ΔV by 11 percent for large overlap crashes and 17 percent for small overlap impacts. The older WinSMASH version, used prior to 2008, underestimated each one of these two groups by an additional 7 percentage points. Another significant variable to enhance the prediction was whether the crash examiner had reported the WinSMASH estimated ΔV as low or high. In this study, none

  2. Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

    2015-01-01

    In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to

  3. Intravenous thrombolysis of large vessel occlusions is associated with higher hospital costs than small vessel strokes: a rationale for developing stroke severity-based financial models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Ansaar T; Evans, Kim; Riggs, Jack E; Hobbs, Gerald R

    2016-04-01

    Owing to their severity, large vessel occlusion (LVO) strokes may be associated with higher costs that are not reflected in current coding systems. This study aimed to determine whether intravenous thrombolysis costs are related to the presence or absence of LVO. Patients who had undergone intravenous thrombolysis over a 9-year period were divided into LVO and no LVO (nLVO) groups based on admission CT angiography. The primary outcome was hospital cost per admission. Secondary outcomes included admission duration, 90-day clinical outcome, and discharge destination. 119 patients (53%) had LVO and 104 (47%) had nLVO. Total mean±SD cost per LVO patient was $18,815±14,262 compared with $15,174±11,769 per nLVO patient (p=0.04). Hospital payments per admission were $17,338±13,947 and $15,594±16,437 for LVO and nLVO patients, respectively (p=0.4). A good outcome was seen in 33 LVO patients (27.7%) and in 69 nLVO patients (66.4%) (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.3, pregression analysis after controlling for comorbidities showed the presence of LVO to be an independent predictor of higher total hospital costs. The presence or absence of LVO is associated with significant differences in hospital costs, outcomes, admission duration, and home discharge. These differences can be important when developing systems of care models for acute ischemic stroke. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  4. The Financial Crisis: Lessons from History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Grinder

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial crises have regularly afflicted economies throughout history and the United States has been no exception.  This paper examines the Panic of 1907, the Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2007-08 and discusses the responses of the government and regulators.  The short version of the story is that the while the government response has varied in terms of monetary and fiscal policy, the regulatory response has remained essentially the same.  The typical reactive regulation sounds good and gives the appearance of accomplishing something but, in fact, only serves to sow the seeds of future crises. The ineffective implementation of existing regulation has had a similar result. Indeed, several authors note that most financial innovation in recent years has its origins in circumventing new regulations. Likewise, government monetary and fiscal responses may or may not help the economy and often give the appearance of great arbitrariness.  Our conclusion is that there will be unforeseen financial crises in the future, sweeping regulation and promises of recent politicians notwithstanding.  Serious study of the unanticipated consequences of this regulation and the development of more robust risk management systems will help us mitigate the effects of future crises but will be of little assistance when it comes to avoiding them. Developing the analyses and risk management systems requires a detailed study of financial history keep both successes and failures fresh in our collective memory.

  5. The Financial Crisis: Lessons from History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Grinder

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Financial crises have regularly afflicted economies throughout history and the United States has been no exception.  This paper examines the Panic of 1907, the Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2007-08 and discusses the responses of the government and regulators.  The short version of the story is that the while the government response has varied in terms of monetary and fiscal policy, the regulatory response has remained essentially the same.  The typical reactive regulation sounds good and gives the appearance of accomplishing something but, in fact, only serves to sow the seeds of future crises. The ineffective implementation of existing regulation has had a similar result. Indeed, several authors note that most financial innovation in recent years has its origins in circumventing new regulations. Likewise, government monetary and fiscal responses may or may not help the economy and often give the appearance of great arbitrariness.  Our conclusion is that there will be unforeseen financial crises in the future, sweeping regulation and promises of recent politicians notwithstanding.  Serious study of the unanticipated consequences of this regulation and the development of more robust risk management systems will help us mitigate the effects of future crises but will be of little assistance when it comes to avoiding them. Developing the analyses and risk management systems requires a detailed study of financial history keep both successes and failures fresh in our collective memory.

  6. Crash testing of nuclear fuel shipping containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jefferson, R.M.; Yoshimura, H.R.

    1977-08-01

    In an attempt to understand the dynamics of extra severe transportation accidents and to evaluate state-of-the-art computational techniques for predicting the dynamic response of shipping casks involved in vehicular system crashes, the Environmental Control Technology Division of ERDA undertook a program with Sandia to investigate these areas. The program encompasses the following distinct major efforts. The first of these utilizes computational methods for predicting the effects of the accident environment and, subsequently, to calculate the damage incurred by a container as the result of such an accident. The second phase involves the testing of 1 / 8 -scale models of transportation systems. Through the use of instrumentation and high-speed motion photography the accident environments and physical damage mechanisms are studied in detail. After correlating the results of these first two phases, a full scale event involving representative hardware is conducted. To date two of the three selected test scenarios have been completed. Results of the program to this point indicate that both computational techniques and scale modeling are viable engineering approaches to studying accident environments and physical damage to shipping casks

  7. Crash testing of nuclear fuel shipping containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jefferson, R.M.; Yoshimura, H.R.

    1977-12-01

    In an attempt to understand the dynamics of extra severe transportation accidents and to evaluate state-of-the-art computational techniques for predicting the dynamic response of shipping casks involved in vehicular system crashes, the Environmental Control Technology Division of ERDA undertook a program with Sandia to investigate these areas. This program, which began in 1975, encompasses the following distinct major efforts. The first of these utilizes computational methods for predicting the effects of the accident environment and, subsequently, to calculate the damage incurred by a container as the result of such an accident. The second phase involves the testing of 1 / 8 -scale models of transportation systems. Through the use of instrumentation and high-speed motion photography, the accident environments and physical damage mechanisms are studied in detail. After correlating the results of these first two phases, a full scale event involving representative hardware is conducted. To date two of the three selected test scenarios have been completed. Results of the program to this point indicate that both computational techniques and scale modeling are viable engineering approaches to studying accident environments and physical damage to shipping casks

  8. Assessing the potential benefits of the motorcycle autonomous emergency braking using detailed crash reconstructions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savino, Giovanni; Giovannini, Federico; Baldanzini, Niccolò; Pierini, Marco; Rizzi, Matteo

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility and quantitative potential benefits of a motorcycle autonomous emergency braking (MAEB) system in fatal rear-end crashes. A further aim was to identify possible criticalities of this safety system in the field of powered 2-wheelers (PTWs; e.g., any additional risk introduced by the system itself). Seven relevant cases from the Swedish national in-depth fatal crash database were selected. All crashes involved car-following in which a non-anti-lock braking system (ABS)-equipped motorcycle was the bullet vehicle. Those crashes were reconstructed in a virtual environment with Prescan, simulating the road scenario, the vehicles involved, their precrash trajectories, ABS, and, alternatively, MAEB. The MAEB chosen as reference for the investigation was developed within the European Commission-funded Powered Two-Wheeler Integrated Safety (PISa) project and further detailed in later studies, with the addition of the ABS functionality. The boundary conditions of each simulation varied within a range compatible with the uncertainty of the in-depth data and also included a range of possible rider behaviors including the actual one. The benefits of the MAEB were evaluated by comparing the simulated impact speed in each configuration (no ABS/MAEB, ABS only, MAEB). The MAEB proved to be beneficial in a large number of cases. When applicable, the benefits of the system were in line with the expected values. When not applicable, there was no clear evidence of an increased risk for the rider due to the system. MAEB represents an innovative safety device in the field of PTWs, and the feasibility of such a system was investigated with promising results. Nevertheless, this technology is not mature yet for PTW application. Research in the field of passenger cars does not directly apply to PTWs because the activation logic of a braking system is more challenging on PTWs. The deployment of an autonomous deceleration would affect the

  9. A survey on the effects of institutional ownership, internal audit and non-executive board members on forecasting crashes: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Sohouli Vahed

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of institutional ownership, internal audit system, the number of non-executive board members and having differentiation between chair and general managers’ responsibilities on the likelihood of stock price crash on 110 listed firms on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2004-2011. The study uses Chen’ model (2001 [Chen, J., Hong, H., & Stein, J. C. (2001. Forecasting crashes: Trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 61(3, 345-381.] to perform the investigation. Based on the results of the survey, there is a negative and meaningful relationship between stock price crash and institutional ownership when the level of significance is ten percent. In addition, as the number of non-executive board members increases, the chance of stock price crash decreases when the level of significance is five percent. However, separation between the responsibility of chair and general managers did not seem to influence on stock price and also having internal audit system had no impact on the likelihood of stock price change.

  10. Integrated traffic conflict model for estimating crash modification factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahdah, Usama; Saccomanno, Frank; Persaud, Bhagwant

    2014-10-01

    Crash modification factors (CMFs) for road safety treatments are usually obtained through observational models based on reported crashes. Observational Bayesian before-and-after methods have been applied to obtain more precise estimates of CMFs by accounting for the regression-to-the-mean bias inherent in naive methods. However, sufficient crash data reported over an extended period of time are needed to provide reliable estimates of treatment effects, a requirement that can be a challenge for certain types of treatment. In addition, these studies require that sites analyzed actually receive the treatment to which the CMF pertains. Another key issue with observational approaches is that they are not causal in nature, and as such, cannot provide a sound "behavioral" rationale for the treatment effect. Surrogate safety measures based on high risk vehicle interactions and traffic conflicts have been proposed to address this issue by providing a more "causal perspective" on lack of safety for different road and traffic conditions. The traffic conflict approach has been criticized, however, for lacking a formal link to observed and verified crashes, a difficulty that this paper attempts to resolve by presenting and investigating an alternative approach for estimating CMFs using simulated conflicts that are linked formally to observed crashes. The integrated CMF estimates are compared to estimates from an empirical Bayes (EB) crash-based before-and-after analysis for the same sample of treatment sites. The treatment considered involves changing left turn signal priority at Toronto signalized intersections from permissive to protected-permissive. The results are promising in that the proposed integrated method yields CMFs that closely match those obtained from the crash-based EB before-and-after analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Compulsive Cell Phone Use and History of Motor Vehicle Crash

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Connor, Stephen S.; Whitehill, Jennifer M.; King, Kevin M.; Kernic, Mary A.; Boyle, Linda Ng; Bresnahan, Brian; Mack, Christopher D.; Ebel, Beth E.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Few studies have examined the psychological factors underlying the association between cell phone use and motor vehicle crash. We sought to examine the factor structure and convergent validity of a measure of problematic cell phone use and explore whether compulsive cell phone use is associated with a history of motor vehicle crash. Methods We recruited a sample of 383 undergraduate college students to complete an on-line assessment that included cell phone use and driving history. We explored the dimensionality of the Cell Phone Overuse Scale (CPOS) using factor analytic methods. Ordinary least squares regression models were used to examine associations between identified subscales and measures of impulsivity, alcohol use, and anxious relationship style to establish convergent validity. We used negative binomial regression models to investigate associations between the CPOS and motor vehicle crash incidence. Results We found the CPOS to be comprised of four subscales: anticipation, activity interfering, emotional reaction, and problem recognition. Each displayed significant associations with aspects of impulsivity, problematic alcohol use, and anxious relationship style characteristics. Only the anticipation subscale demonstrated statistically significant associations with reported motor vehicle crash incidence, controlling for clinical and demographic characteristics (RR 1.13, CI 1.01 to 1.26). For each one-point increase on the 6-point anticipation subscale, risk for previous motor vehicle crash increased by 13%. Conclusions Crash risk is strongly associated with heightened anticipation about incoming phone calls or messages. The mean score on the CPOS is associated with increased risk of motor vehicle crash but does not reach statistical significance. PMID:23910571

  12. Understanding fatal older road user crash circumstances and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koppel, Sjaan; Bugeja, Lyndal; Smith, Daisy; Lamb, Ashne; Dwyer, Jeremy; Fitzharris, Michael; Newstead, Stuart; D'Elia, Angelo; Charlton, Judith

    2018-02-28

    This study used medicolegal data to investigate fatal older road user (ORU) crash circumstances and risk factors relating to four key components of the Safe System approach (e.g., roads and roadsides, vehicles, road users, and speeds) to identify areas of priority for targeted prevention activity. The Coroners Court of Victoria's Surveillance Database was searched to identify coronial records with at least one deceased ORU in the state of Victoria, Australia, for 2013-2014. Information relating to the ORU, crash characteristics and circumstances, and risk factors was extracted and analyzed. The average rate of fatal ORU crashes per 100,000 population was 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0-10.2), which was more than double the average rate of fatal middle-aged road user crashes (3.6, 95% CI 2.5-4.6). There was a significant relationship between age group and deceased road user type (χ 2 (15, N = 226) = 3.56, p road" (87.0%), on roads that were paved (94.2%), dry (74.2%), and had light traffic volume (38.3%). Road user error was identified by the police and/or coroner for the majority of fatal ORU crashes (57.9%), with a significant proportion of deceased ORU deemed to have "misjudged" (40.9%) or "failed to yield" (37.9%). Road user error was the most significant risk factor identified in fatal ORU crashes, which suggests that there is a limited capacity of the Victorian road system to fully accommodate road user errors. Initiatives related to safer roads and roadsides, vehicles, and speed zones, as well as behavioral approaches, are key areas of priority for targeted activity to prevent fatal older road user crashes in the future.

  13. Compulsive cell phone use and history of motor vehicle crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Stephen S; Whitehill, Jennifer M; King, Kevin M; Kernic, Mary A; Boyle, Linda Ng; Bresnahan, Brian W; Mack, Christopher D; Ebel, Beth E

    2013-10-01

    Few studies have examined the psychological factors underlying the association between cell phone use and motor vehicle crash. We sought to examine the factor structure and convergent validity of a measure of problematic cell phone use, and to explore whether compulsive cell phone use is associated with a history of motor vehicle crash. We recruited a sample of 383 undergraduate college students to complete an online assessment that included cell phone use and driving history. We explored the dimensionality of the Cell Phone Overuse Scale (CPOS) using factor analytic methods. Ordinary least-squares regression models were used to examine associations between identified subscales and measures of impulsivity, alcohol use, and anxious relationship style, to establish convergent validity. We used negative binomial regression models to investigate associations between the CPOS and motor vehicle crash incidence. We found the CPOS to be composed of four subscales: anticipation, activity interfering, emotional reaction, and problem recognition. Each displayed significant associations with aspects of impulsivity, problematic alcohol use, and anxious relationship style characteristics. Only the anticipation subscale demonstrated statistically significant associations with reported motor vehicle crash incidence, controlling for clinical and demographic characteristics (relative ratio, 1.13; confidence interval, 1.01-1.26). For each 1-point increase on the 6-point anticipation subscale, risk for previous motor vehicle crash increased by 13%. Crash risk is strongly associated with heightened anticipation about incoming phone calls or messages. The mean score on the CPOS is associated with increased risk of motor vehicle crash but does not reach statistical significance. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Multivariate poisson lognormal modeling of crashes by type and severity on rural two lane highways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kai; Ivan, John N; Ravishanker, Nalini; Jackson, Eric

    2017-02-01

    In an effort to improve traffic safety, there has been considerable interest in estimating crash prediction models and identifying factors contributing to crashes. To account for crash frequency variations among crash types and severities, crash prediction models have been estimated by type and severity. The univariate crash count models have been used by researchers to estimate crashes by crash type or severity, in which the crash counts by type or severity are assumed to be independent of one another and modelled separately. When considering crash types and severities simultaneously, this may neglect the potential correlations between crash counts due to the presence of shared unobserved factors across crash types or severities for a specific roadway intersection or segment, and might lead to biased parameter estimation and reduce model accuracy. The focus on this study is to estimate crashes by both crash type and crash severity using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) Multivariate Poisson Lognormal (MVPLN) model, and identify the different effects of contributing factors on different crash type and severity counts on rural two-lane highways. The INLA MVPLN model can simultaneously model crash counts by crash type and crash severity by accounting for the potential correlations among them and significantly decreases the computational time compared with a fully Bayesian fitting of the MVPLN model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This paper describes estimation of MVPLN models for three-way stop controlled (3ST) intersections, four-way stop controlled (4ST) intersections, four-way signalized (4SG) intersections, and roadway segments on rural two-lane highways. Annual Average Daily traffic (AADT) and variables describing roadway conditions (including presence of lighting, presence of left-turn/right-turn lane, lane width and shoulder width) were used as predictors. A Univariate Poisson Lognormal (UPLN) was estimated by crash type and

  15. Cohesiveness in financial news and its relation to market volatility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piškorec, Matija; Antulov-Fantulin, Nino; Novak, Petra Kralj; Mozetič, Igor; Grčar, Miha; Vodenska, Irena; Smuc, Tomislav

    2014-05-22

    Motivated by recent financial crises, significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said regarding the influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour based on financial news on the Web, the News Cohesiveness Index (NCI), and we demonstrate that the index can be used as a financial market volatility indicator. We evaluate the NCI using financial documents from large Web news sources on a daily basis from October 2011 to July 2013 and analyse the interplay between financial markets and finance-related news. We hypothesise that strong cohesion in financial news reflects movements in the financial markets. Our results indicate that cohesiveness in financial news is highly correlated with and driven by volatility in financial markets.

  16. Cohesiveness in Financial News and its Relation to Market Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piškorec, Matija; Antulov-Fantulin, Nino; Novak, Petra Kralj; Mozetič, Igor; Grčar, Miha; Vodenska, Irena; Šmuc, Tomislav

    2014-01-01

    Motivated by recent financial crises, significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said regarding the influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour based on financial news on the Web, the News Cohesiveness Index (NCI), and we demonstrate that the index can be used as a financial market volatility indicator. We evaluate the NCI using financial documents from large Web news sources on a daily basis from October 2011 to July 2013 and analyse the interplay between financial markets and finance-related news. We hypothesise that strong cohesion in financial news reflects movements in the financial markets. Our results indicate that cohesiveness in financial news is highly correlated with and driven by volatility in financial markets. PMID:24849598

  17. Kingdom of Morocco : Country Financial Accountability Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2003-01-01

    This Country Financial Accountability Assessment (CFAA) reviews Morocco's public sector financial management system, largely based on the French system that separates accounting practices from services organization, and from the initial expenditure control to the latter jurisdictional control. The Moroccan system appears largely robust, characterized by legal institutions; however, this se...

  18. FINANCIAL DEPTH AND FINANCIAL ACCESS IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigit Setiawan

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study is intended to analyze the current levels of financial depth and financial access in Indonesia and to analyze the factors affecting them. The analysis method used was a combination of descriptive quantitative, benchmarking, and literature reviews. The conclusion is that the financial depth in Indonesia has not shown a satisfactory level since it was the lowest, or the second lowest ranked country among the sampled countries. Meanwhile, the financial access in Indonesia is relatively better than its financial depth, especially for financial markets, in which Indonesia ranks in the lower average group. From literature reviews, it can be inferred that the main factor driving the poor financial depth in Indonesia is non-competitiveness of the institutions; whereas the driving force of poor financial access in Indonesia are geographical constraints, poverty, a high income gap, and a less than effective national financial development policy.

  19. How Financial Literacy Affects Household Wealth Accumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrman, Jere R; Mitchell, Olivia S; Soo, Cindy K; Bravo, David

    2012-05-01

    This study isolates the causal effects of financial literacy and schooling on wealth accumulation using a new household dataset and an instrumental variables (IV) approach. Financial literacy and schooling attainment are both strongly positively associated with wealth outcomes in linear regression models, whereas the IV estimates reveal even more potent effects of financial literacy. They also indicate that the schooling effect only becomes positive when interacted with financial literacy. Estimated impacts are substantial enough to imply that investments in financial literacy could have large wealth payoffs.

  20. MHD [magnetohydrodynamic] modes driven by anomalous electron viscosity and their role in fast sawtooth crashes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aydemir, A.Y.

    1990-01-01

    We derive the dispersion relations for both small and large-Δ' modes (m ≥ 2, and m = 1 modes, respectively) driven by anomalous electron viscosity. Under the assumption that the anomalous kinematic electron viscosity is comparable to the anomalous electron thermal diffusivity, we find that the viscous mode typically has a higher growth rate than the corresponding resistive mode. We compare computational results in cylindrical and toroidal geometries with theory and present some nonlinear results for viscous m = 1 modes in both circular and D-shaped boundaries and discuss their possible rile in fast sawtooth crashes. 30 ref., 5 figs., 1 tab

  1. The advanced role of computational mechanics and visualization in science and technology: analysis of the Germanwings Flight 9525 crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Goong; Wang, Yi-Ching; Gu, Cong; Perronnet, Alain; Yao, Pengfei; Bin-Mohsin, Bandar; Hajaiej, Hichem; Scully, Marlan O

    2017-01-01

    Computational mathematics, physics and engineering form a major constituent of modern computational science, which now stands on an equal footing with the established branches of theoretical and experimental sciences. Computational mechanics solves problems in science and engineering based upon mathematical modeling and computing, bypassing the need for expensive and time-consuming laboratory setups and experimental measurements. Furthermore, it allows the numerical simulations of large scale systems, such as the formation of galaxies that could not be done in any earth bound laboratories. This article is written as part of the 21st Century Frontiers Series to illustrate some state-of-the-art computational science. We emphasize how to do numerical modeling and visualization in the study of a contemporary event, the pulverizing crash of the Germanwings Flight 9525 on March 24, 2015, as a showcase. Such numerical modeling and the ensuing simulation of aircraft crashes into land or mountain are complex tasks as they involve both theoretical study and supercomputing of a complex physical system. The most tragic type of crash involves ‘pulverization’ such as the one suffered by this Germanwings flight. Here, we show pulverizing airliner crashes by visualization through video animations from supercomputer applications of the numerical modeling tool LS-DYNA. A sound validation process is challenging but essential for any sophisticated calculations. We achieve this by validation against the experimental data from a crash test done in 1993 of an F4 Phantom II fighter jet into a wall. We have developed a method by hybridizing two primary methods: finite element analysis and smoothed particle hydrodynamics . This hybrid method also enhances visualization by showing a ‘debris cloud’. Based on our supercomputer simulations and the visualization, we point out that prior works on this topic based on ‘hollow interior’ modeling can be quite problematic and, thus, not

  2. The advanced role of computational mechanics and visualization in science and technology: analysis of the Germanwings Flight 9525 crash

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Goong; Wang, Yi-Ching; Perronnet, Alain; Gu, Cong; Yao, Pengfei; Bin-Mohsin, Bandar; Hajaiej, Hichem; Scully, Marlan O.

    2017-03-01

    Computational mathematics, physics and engineering form a major constituent of modern computational science, which now stands on an equal footing with the established branches of theoretical and experimental sciences. Computational mechanics solves problems in science and engineering based upon mathematical modeling and computing, bypassing the need for expensive and time-consuming laboratory setups and experimental measurements. Furthermore, it allows the numerical simulations of large scale systems, such as the formation of galaxies that could not be done in any earth bound laboratories. This article is written as part of the 21st Century Frontiers Series to illustrate some state-of-the-art computational science. We emphasize how to do numerical modeling and visualization in the study of a contemporary event, the pulverizing crash of the Germanwings Flight 9525 on March 24, 2015, as a showcase. Such numerical modeling and the ensuing simulation of aircraft crashes into land or mountain are complex tasks as they involve both theoretical study and supercomputing of a complex physical system. The most tragic type of crash involves ‘pulverization’ such as the one suffered by this Germanwings flight. Here, we show pulverizing airliner crashes by visualization through video animations from supercomputer applications of the numerical modeling tool LS-DYNA. A sound validation process is challenging but essential for any sophisticated calculations. We achieve this by validation against the experimental data from a crash test done in 1993 of an F4 Phantom II fighter jet into a wall. We have developed a method by hybridizing two primary methods: finite element analysis and smoothed particle hydrodynamics. This hybrid method also enhances visualization by showing a ‘debris cloud’. Based on our supercomputer simulations and the visualization, we point out that prior works on this topic based on ‘hollow interior’ modeling can be quite problematic and, thus, not

  3. Trends in teen driver licensure, driving patterns and crash involvement in the United States, 2006-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shults, Ruth A; Williams, Allan F

    2017-09-01

    The Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey provides nationally-representative annual estimates of licensure and driving patterns among U.S. teens. A previous study using MTF data reported substantial declines in the proportion of high school seniors that were licensed to drive and increases in the proportion of nondrivers following the recent U.S. economic recession. To explore whether licensure and driving patterns among U.S. high school seniors have rebounded in the post-recession years, we analyzed MTF licensure and driving data for the decade of 2006-2015. We also examined trends in teen driver involvement in fatal and nonfatal injury crashes for that decade using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System, respectively. During 2006-2015, the proportion of high school seniors that reported having a driver's license declined by 9 percentage points (11%) from 81% to 72% and the proportion that did not drive during an average week increased by 8 percentage points (44%) from 18% to 26%. The annual proportion of black seniors that did not drive was consistently greater than twice the proportion of nondriving white seniors. Overall during the decade, 17- and 18-year-old drivers experienced large declines in fatal and nonfatal injury crashes, although crashes increased in both 2014 and 2015. The MTF data indicate that licensure and driving patterns among U.S. high school seniors have not rebounded since the economic recession. The recession had marked negative effects on teen employment opportunities, which likely influenced teen driving patterns. Possible explanations for the apparent discrepancies between the MTF data and the 2014 and 2015 increases in crashes are explored. MTF will continue to be an important resource for clarifying teen driving trends in relation to crash trends and informing strategies to improve teen driver safety. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Analysis of Traffic Crashes Involving Pedestrians Using Big Data: Investigation of Contributing Factors and Identification of Hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Kun; Ozbay, Kaan; Kurkcu, Abdullah; Yang, Hong

    2017-08-01

    This study aims to explore the potential of using big data in advancing the pedestrian risk analysis including the investigation of contributing factors and the hotspot identification. Massive amounts of data of Manhattan from a variety of sources were collected, integrated, and processed, including taxi trips, subway turnstile counts, traffic volumes, road network, land use, sociodemographic, and social media data. The whole study area was uniformly split into grid cells as the basic geographical units of analysis. The cell-structured framework makes it easy to incorporate rich and diversified data into risk analysis. The cost of each crash, weighted by injury severity, was assigned to the cells based on the relative distance to the crash site using a kernel density function. A tobit model was developed to relate grid-cell-specific contributing factors to crash costs that are left-censored at zero. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) that could be obtained by using the actual crash cost minus the cost of "similar" sites estimated by the tobit model was used as a measure to identify and rank pedestrian crash hotspots. The proposed hotspot identification method takes into account two important factors that are generally ignored, i.e., injury severity and effects of exposure indicators. Big data, on the one hand, enable more precise estimation of the effects of risk factors by providing richer data for modeling, and on the other hand, enable large-scale hotspot identification with higher resolution than conventional methods based on census tracts or traffic analysis zones. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Study on the probability of the aircraft crash at the Experimental Power Reactor (RDE) site in Puspiptek Serpong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yarianto Sugeng B S; Siti Alimah; June Mellawati

    2016-01-01

    With regard to RDE site licensing process, probability of aircraft crash at RDE site area of Puspiptek Serpong has been assessed. The objective of the research (assessment) is to determine the probability of occurrence of aircraft crash at the RDE site area. The methodology used in the research consist of secondary and primary data collection, identification of potential hazards sources (airports) in the vicinity of RDE site and mapping of its distribution, initial screening using a value of Screening Distance Value (SDV) and Safety Region of Flight Operations value (KKOP), as well as the calculation of the probability of the aircraft crash in the site area. The study was conducted in December 2015 - June 2016. The results showed that in the vicinity of the RDE site there are seven airports airport, namely Soekarno-Hatta (Soetta), Halim Perdanakusuma, Atang Sendjaja, Budiarto, Pondok Cabe, Rumpin and Pulau Panjang, with distances ranging from 11.72 to 79.64 km. Based on the SDV (small airport is 10 km and a large airport is 16 km), the RDE site is in outside of the airports SDV radius. However, based on KKOP (14.5 km radius), the RDE site is in inside of the two airports KKOP radius (Budiarto and Pondok Cabe). Probability calculations showed that the potential of aircraft crash in the site area of RDE coming from the Budiarto airports is 0.0066 x 10"-"7 events/year and from Pondok Cabe 0.0278 x10"-"7 events/year. The probability value was lower than the criteria based on IAEA report (10"-"7 events/year), so the RDE site categorized safe from the potential of aircraft crash. (author)

  6. The effects of studded tires on fatal crashes with passenger cars and the benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) in Swedish winter driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strandroth, Johan; Rizzi, Matteo; Olai, Maria; Lie, Anders; Tingvall, Claes

    2012-03-01

    This study set out to examine the effects of studded tires on fatal crashes on roads covered with ice or snow in Sweden and also to investigate the extra benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) during the winter months. Two different studies are presented in this paper. Both studies used an induced exposure approach. In the main study, 369 in-depth studies of fatal crashes with passenger cars were analyzed to determine whether loss-of-control (LOC) had been a major component or not. Only crashes involving cars without ESC and equipped with approved studded or non-studded winter tires were analyzed. The additional study used police-reported crashes that occurred during the winter seasons 2003-2010, involving passenger cars with and without ESC. While police records in Sweden do not include any tire information, it was assumed that most cars involved in crashes during the winter period would be equipped with studded tires. Findings in the main study showed that in 64% of the fatal crashes on roads covered with ice or snow LOC had been a major component. Furthermore, in 82% of LOC crashes, the passenger car over-steered prior to collision. Studded tires were found to have a statistically significant effect of 42% in terms of fatal crash reduction on roads covered with ice or snow, compared to non-studded winter tires. The effect on dry or wet roads in the winter was negative, although statistically non-significant. In the additional study, it was found that ESC further reduced crashes with injuries by 29%. The benefits on severe and fatal crashes were slightly greater (32%), although the lower 95% confidence limit was lower. Although studded tires were shown to reduce the risk of fatal crash involvement, compared to non-studded winter tires, the proportion of LOC and over-steering among cars with studded tires was large (59% and 49%, respectively). It was therefore concluded that studded tires do not prevent all LOC crashes, while ESC has benefits in those

  7. Hotspots and causes of motor vehicle crashes in Baltimore, Maryland: A geospatial analysis of five years of police crash and census data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezman, Zachary; de Andrade, Luciano; Vissoci, Joao Ricardo; El-Gabri, Deena; Johnson, Abree; Hirshon, Jon Mark; Staton, Catherine A

    2016-11-01

    Road traffic injuries are a leading killer of youth (aged 15-29) and are projected to be the 7th leading cause of death by 2030. To better understand road traffic crash locations and characteristics in the city of Baltimore, we used police and census data, to describe the epidemiology, hotspots, and modifiable risk factors involved to guide further interventions. Data on all crashes in Baltimore City from 2009 to 2013 were made available from the Maryland Automated Accident Reporting System. Socioeconomic data collected by the US CENSUS 2010 were obtained. A time series analysis was conducted using an ARIMA model. We analyzed the geographical distribution of traffic crashes and hotspots using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial autocorrelation. Spatial regression was performed to evaluate the impact of socioeconomic indicators on hotspots. In Baltimore City, between 2009 and 2013, there were a total of 100,110 crashes reported, with 1% of crashes considered severe. Of all crashes, 7% involved vulnerable road users and 12% had elderly or youth involvement. Reasons for crashes included: distracted driving (31%), speeding (6%), and alcohol or drug use (5%). After 2010, we observed an increasing trend in all crashes especially from March to June. Distracted driving then youth and elderly drivers were consistently the highest risk factors over time. Multivariate spatial regression model including socioeconomic indicators and controlling for age, gender and population size did not show a distinct predictor of crashes explaining only 20% of the road crash variability, indicating crashes are not geographically explained by socioeconomic indicators alone. In Baltimore City, road traffic crashes occurred predominantly in the high density center of the city, involved distracted driving and extremes of age with an increase in crashes from March to June. There was no association between socioeconomic variables where crashes occurred and hotspots. In depth analysis of

  8. FINANCIAL INSTABILITY, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND POVERTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionescu Cristian

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available There is a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth in short-run and long-run. Financial development is beneficial to the reduction of poverty. But the financial instability which accompanies financial development is is costly for the poor and reduces the positive effect of financial development on the reduction of poverty. The paper aims to analyze in detail the relationship and the (direct and indirect effects between these variables, taking into account their economic and social importance. It is also highlighted the correlation between the financial economy and the real economy, emphasizing the impact on social welfare involved by the interaction of the above mentioned variables.

  9. Evaluation of Vehicle-Based Crash Severity Metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsoi, Ada H; Gabler, Hampton C

    2015-01-01

    Vehicle change in velocity (delta-v) is a widely used crash severity metric used to estimate occupant injury risk. Despite its widespread use, delta-v has several limitations. Of most concern, delta-v is a vehicle-based metric which does not consider the crash pulse or the performance of occupant restraints, e.g. seatbelts and airbags. Such criticisms have prompted the search for alternative impact severity metrics based upon vehicle kinematics. The purpose of this study was to assess the ability of the occupant impact velocity (OIV), acceleration severity index (ASI), vehicle pulse index (VPI), and maximum delta-v (delta-v) to predict serious injury in real world crashes. The study was based on the analysis of event data recorders (EDRs) downloaded from the National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) 2000-2013 cases. All vehicles in the sample were GM passenger cars and light trucks involved in a frontal collision. Rollover crashes were excluded. Vehicles were restricted to single-event crashes that caused an airbag deployment. All EDR data were checked for a successful, completed recording of the event and that the crash pulse was complete. The maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS) was used to describe occupant injury outcome. Drivers were categorized into either non-seriously injured group (MAIS2-) or seriously injured group (MAIS3+), based on the severity of any injuries to the thorax, abdomen, and spine. ASI and OIV were calculated according to the Manual for Assessing Safety Hardware. VPI was calculated according to ISO/TR 12353-3, with vehicle-specific parameters determined from U.S. New Car Assessment Program crash tests. Using binary logistic regression, the cumulative probability of injury risk was determined for each metric and assessed for statistical significance, goodness-of-fit, and prediction accuracy. The dataset included 102,744 vehicles. A Wald chi-square test showed each vehicle-based crash severity metric

  10. Potential Occupant Injury Reduction in Pre-Crash System Equipped Vehicles in the Striking Vehicle of Rear-end Crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C

    2010-01-01

    To mitigate the severity of rear-end and other collisions, Pre-Crash Systems (PCS) are being developed. These active safety systems utilize radar and/or video cameras to determine when a frontal crash, such as a front-to-back rear-end collisions, is imminent and can brake autonomously, even with no driver input. Of these PCS features, the effects of autonomous pre-crash braking are estimated. To estimate the maximum potential for injury reduction due to autonomous pre-crash braking in the striking vehicle of rear-end crashes, a methodology is presented for determining 1) the reduction in vehicle crash change in velocity (ΔV) due to PCS braking and 2) the number of injuries that could be prevented due to the reduction in collision severity. Injury reduction was only performed for belted drivers, as unbelted drivers have an unknown risk of being thrown out of position. The study was based on 1,406 rear-end striking vehicles from NASS / CDS years 1993 to 2008. PCS parameters were selected from realistic values and varied to examine the effect on system performance. PCS braking authority was varied from 0.5 G's to 0.8 G's while time to collision (TTC) was held at 0.45 seconds. TTC was then varied from 0.3 second to 0.6 seconds while braking authority was held constant at 0.6 G's. A constant braking pulse (step function) and ramp-up braking pulse were used. The study found that automated PCS braking could reduce the crash ΔV in rear-end striking vehicles by an average of 12% - 50% and avoid 0% - 14% of collisions, depending on PCS parameters. Autonomous PCS braking could potentially reduce the number of injured drivers who are belted by 19% to 57%.

  11. Systematic review of military motor vehicle crash-related injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahl, Pamela L; Jankosky, Christopher J; Thomas, Richard J; Hooper, Tomoko I

    2010-01-01

    Motor vehicle crashes account for nearly one third of U.S. military fatalities annually. The objective of this review is to summarize the published evidence on injuries due specifically to military motor vehicle (MMV) crashes. A search of 18 electronic databases identified English language publications addressing MMV crash-related injuries between 1970 and 2006 that were available to the general public. Documents limited in distribution to military or government personnel were not evaluated. Relevant articles were categorized by study design. The search identified only 13 studies related specifically to MMV crashes. Most were case reports or case series (n=8); only one could be classified as an intervention study. Nine of the studies were based solely on data from service-specific military safety centers. Few studies exist on injuries resulting from crashes of military motor vehicles. Epidemiologic studies that assess injury rates, type, severity, and risk factors are needed, followed by studies to evaluate targeted interventions and prevention strategies. Interventions currently underway should be evaluated for effectiveness, and those proven effective in the civilian community, such as graduated driver licensing, should be considered for implementation and evaluation in military populations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Urban sprawl as a risk factor in motor vehicle crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Reid; Hamidi, Shima; Grace, James B.

    2016-01-01

    A decade ago, compactness/sprawl indices were developed for metropolitan areas and counties which have been widely used in health and other research. In this study, we first update the original county index to 2010, then develop a refined index that accounts for more relevant factors, and finally seek to test the relationship between sprawl and traffic crash rates using structural equation modelling. Controlling for covariates, we find that sprawl is associated with significantly higher direct and indirect effects on fatal crash rates. The direct effect is likely due to the higher traffic speeds in sprawling areas, and the indirect effect is due to greater vehicle miles driven in such areas. Conversely, sprawl has negative direct relationships with total crashes and non-fatal injury crashes, and these offset (and sometimes overwhelm) the positive indirect effects of sprawl on both types of crashes through the mediating effect of increased vehicle miles driven. The most likely explanation is the greater prevalence of fender benders and other minor accidents in the low speed, high conflict traffic environments of compact areas, negating the lower vehicle miles travelled per capita in such areas.

  13. Human fatigue and the crash of the airship Italia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregg A. Bendrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The airship Italia, commanded by General Umberto Nobile, crashed during its return flight from the North Pole in 1928. The cause of the accident was never satisfactorily explained. We present evidence that the crash may have been fatigue-related. Nobile's memoirs indicate that at the time of the crash he had been awake for at least 72 h. Sleep deprivation impairs multiple aspects of cognitive functioning necessary for exploration missions. Just prior to the crash, Nobile made three command errors, all of which are of types associated with inadequate sleep. First, he ordered a release of lift gas when he should have restarted engines (an example of incorrect data synthesis, with deterioration of divergent thinking; second, he inappropriately ordered the ship above the cloud layer (a deficiency in the assessment of relative risks; and third, he remained above the cloud layer for a prolonged period of time (examples of attention to secondary problems, and calculation problems. We argue that as a result of these three errors, which would not be expected from such an experienced commander, there was no longer enough static lift to maintain level flight when the ship went below the cloud layer. Applying Circadian Performance Simulation Software to the sleep–wake patterns described by Nobile in his memoirs, we found that the predicted performance for someone awake as long as he had been is extremely low. This supports the historical evidence that human fatigue contributed to the crash of the Italia.

  14. Evaluating impacts of different longitudinal driver assistance systems on reducing multi-vehicle rear-end crashes during small-scale inclement weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Xing, Lu; Wang, Wei; Wang, Hao; Dong, Changyin; Liu, Shanwen

    2017-10-01

    Multi-vehicle rear-end (MVRE) crashes during small-scale inclement (SSI) weather cause high fatality rates on freeways, which cannot be solved by traditional speed limit strategies. This study aimed to reduce MVRE crash risks during SSI weather using different longitudinal driver assistance systems (LDAS). The impact factors on MVRE crashes during SSI weather were firstly analyzed. Then, four LDAS, including Forward collision warning (FCW), Autonomous emergency braking (AEB), Adaptive cruise control (ACC) and Cooperative ACC (CACC), were modeled based on a unified platform, the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM). Simulation experiments were designed and a large number of simulations were then conducted to evaluate safety effects of different LDAS. Results indicate that the FCW and ACC system have poor performance on reducing MVRE crashes during SSI weather. The slight improvement of sight distance of FCW and the limitation of perception-reaction time of ACC lead the failure of avoiding MVRE crashes in most scenarios. The AEB system has the better effect due to automatic perception and reaction, as well as performing the full brake when encountering SSI weather. The CACC system has the best performance because wireless communication provides a larger sight distance and a shorter time delay at the sub-second level. Sensitivity analyses also indicated that the larger number of vehicles and speed changes after encountering SSI weather have negative impacts on safety performances. Results of this study provide useful information for accident prevention during SSI weather. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Micro-foundation using percolation theory of the finite time singular behavior of the crash hazard rate in a class of rational expectation bubbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyrich, Maximilian; Sornette, Didier

    2016-04-01

    We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation picture of the network of traders and the concept that clusters of connected traders share the same opinion. The key ingredient is the notion that a shift of position from buyer to seller of a sufficiently large group of traders can trigger a crash. This provides a formula to estimate the crash hazard rate by summation over percolation clusters above a minimum size of a power sa (with a>1) of the cluster sizes s, similarly to a generalized percolation susceptibility. The power sa of cluster sizes emerges from the super-linear dependence of group activity as a function of group size, previously documented in the literature. The crash hazard rate exhibits explosive finite time singular behaviors when the control parameter (fraction of occupied sites, or density of traders in the network) approaches the percolation threshold pc. Realistic dynamics are generated by modeling the density of traders on the percolation network by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, whose memory controls the spontaneous excursion of the control parameter close to the critical region of bubble formation. Our numerical simulations recover the main stylized properties of the JLS model with intermittent explosive super-exponential bubbles interrupted by crashes.

  16. Fatal and serious road crashes involving young New Zealand drivers: a latent class clustering approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weiss, Harold B.; Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2016-01-01

    , infrastructure characteristics, environmental conditions, demographic characteristics, driving behaviour, and pre-crash manoeuvres. The analysis yielded 15 and 8 latent classes of, respectively, single-vehicle and multi-vehicle crashes, and average posterior probabilities measured the odds of correct...

  17. National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS) - NMVCCS XML Case Viewer

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVVCS) was a nationwide survey of crashes involving light passenger vehicles, with a focus on the factors related...

  18. New evidence concerning fatal crashes of passenger vehicles before and after adding antilock braking systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, C M

    2001-05-01

    Fatal crash rates for passenger cars and vans were compared for the last model year before four-wheel antilock brakes were introduced and the first model year for which antilock brakes were standard equipment. A prior study, based on fatal crash experience through 1995, reported that vehicle models with antilock brakes were more likely than identical but 1-year-earlier models to be involved in crashes fatal to their own occupants, but were less likely to be involved in crashes fatal to occupants of other vehicles. Overall, there was no significant effect of antilocks on the likelihood of fatal crashes. Similar analyses, based on fatal crash experience during 1996-98, yielded very different results. During 1996-98, vehicles with antilock brakes were again less likely than earlier models to be involved in crashes fatal to occupants of other vehicles, but they were no longer overinvolved in crashes fatal to their own occupants.

  19. Societal costs of traffic crashes and crime in Michigan : 2011 update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    "Cost estimates, including both monetary and nonmonetary quality-of-life costs specific to Michigan, were : estimated for overall traffic crashes and index crimes by experts in the field of economics of traffic crashes : and crimes. These cost estima...

  20. Feasibility of a web-based system for police crash report review and information recording.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    Police crash reports include useful additional information that is not available in crash summary records. : This information may include police sketches and narratives and is often needed for detailed site-specific : safety analysis. In addition, so...

  1. Development of requirements and functional specifications for crash event data recorders : final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-12-01

    The U.S. DOT has conducted research on the requirements for a Crash Event Data Recorder to facilitate the reconstruction of commercial motor vehicle crashes. This report documents the work performed on the Development of Requirements and Functiona...

  2. Correlation Analysis of Freeway Traffic Status and Crashes with Nevada Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-11

    This project is to study the correlation between freeway traffic status and crash risks with the historical freeway ITS data and related crash data in Nevada. With the comprehensive review of previous research results, the Center for Advanced Transpo...

  3. Taxonomy of Older Driver Behaviors and Crash Risk : with Appendices A and B

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    This projects objectives were to identify risky behaviors, driving habits, and exposure patterns that have been shown to increase the likelihood of crash involvement among older drivers; and to classify these crash-contributing factors according t...

  4. The CRASH trial protocol (Corticosteroid randomisation after significant head injury [ISRCTN74459797

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Worldwide, millions of people are treated each year for significant head injury. A substantial proportion die, and many more are disabled. If short term corticosteroid infusion could be reliably shown to reduce these risks by just a few percent then this might affect the treatment of a few hundred thousand patients a year, protecting thousands from death or long term disability. Study design CRASH is a large simple, placebo-controlled trial of the effects of a 48-hour infusion of corticosteroids on death and on neurological disability, among adults with head injury and some impairment of consciousness. Head injured patients with impaired consciousness who are judged to be 16 years or older are eligible if the responsible doctor is, for any reason, substantially uncertain whether or not to use corticosteroids. Organisation The CRASH trial will determine reliably the effects on death and disability of a short corticosteroid infusion following significant head injury. To detect or refute improvements of only a few percent in outcome, many thousands of acute head injury patients must be randomised between control and steroid infusions. Such large numbers will be possible only if hundreds of doctors and nurses can collaborate in the participating emergency departments. Since they are busy, and working in emergency situations, the trial involves them in almost no extra work: no special investigations or changes to usual management are required, and data collection is absolutely minimal. The trial is on-going and new collaborators are welcome. Further information about the trial is available at http://www.crash.lshtm.ac.uk

  5. Glass half-full: On-road glance metrics differentiate crashes from near-crashes in the 100-Car data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seppelt, Bobbie D; Seaman, Sean; Lee, Joonbum; Angell, Linda S; Mehler, Bruce; Reimer, Bryan

    2017-10-01

    Much of the driver distraction and inattention work to date has focused on concerns over drivers removing their eyes from the forward roadway to perform non-driving-related tasks, and its demonstrable link to safety consequences when these glances are timed at inopportune moments. This extensive literature has established, through the analyses of glance from naturalistic datasets, a clear relationship between eyes-off-road, lead vehicle closing kinematics, and near-crash/crash involvement. This paper looks at the role of driver expectation in influencing drivers' decisions about when and for how long to remove their eyes from the forward roadway in an analysis that consider the combined role of on- and off-road glances. Using glance data collected in the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS), near-crashes were examined separately from crashes to examine how momentary differences in glance allocation over the 25-s prior to a precipitating event can differentiate between these two distinct outcomes. Individual glance metrics of mean single glance duration (MSGD), total glance time (TGT), and glance count for off-road and on-road glance locations were analyzed. Output from the AttenD algorithm (Kircher and Ahlström, 2009) was also analyzed as a hybrid measure; in threading together on- and off-road glances over time, its output produces a pattern of glance behavior meaningful for examining attentional effects. Individual glance metrics calculated at the epoch-level and binned by 10-s units of time across the available epoch lengths revealed that drivers in near-crashes have significantly longer on-road glances, and look less frequently between on- and off- road locations in the moments preceding a precipitating event as compared to crashes. During on-road glances, drivers in near-crashes were found to more frequently sample peripheral regions of the roadway than drivers in crashes. Output from the AttenD algorithm affirmed the cumulative net benefit of longer on

  6. Financial Village Standing in Indonesian Financial System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herry Purnomo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial resources of the village that are sourced from a country or a Regional Finance Financial based Law Number 6 Year 2014 of The Village is the mandate of the law that must be allocated to the village. The interconnectedness of the financial position of the village in the financial system of the country or Region concerned the Financial administrative and territorial relations, and there is no setting directly regarding the finances of the village as part of the financial system of the country or the financial area. In respect of the elements of the crime of corruption deeds against financial irregularities of the village there are still disagreements on the interpretation of the law in trapping the perpetrators of corruption on the village chief that implies not satisfy the principle of legality and legal certainty in the ruling of the matter of financial irregularities. In fact, many of the village chief or Councilor caught the criminal offence of corruption over the use of financial irregularities. This research analyzes How the financial position of the village in the financial system of the country or region, as well as whether the financial resources of the village is derived from the state budget or region budget managed in village budget belongs to the category of village finances and whether tort against the financial management of the village can be categorized as a criminal act corruption. How To Cite: Purnomo, H. (2015. Financial Village Standing in Indonesian Financial System. Rechtsidee, 2(2, 121-140. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.21070/jihr.v2i2.81

  7. FINANCIAL DEPTH AND FINANCIAL ACCESS IN INDONESIA

    OpenAIRE

    Sigit Setiawan

    2015-01-01

    This study is intended to analyze the current levels of financial depth and financial access in Indonesia and to analyze the factors affecting them. The analysis method used was a combination of descriptive quantitative, benchmarking, and literature reviews. The conclusion is that the financial depth in Indonesia has not shown a satisfactory level since it was the lowest, or the second lowest ranked country among the sampled countries. Meanwhile, the financial access in Indonesia is relativel...

  8. Overreaction or Fundamentals: Some Lessons from Insiders' Response to the Market Crash of 1987.

    OpenAIRE

    Seyhun, H Nejat

    1990-01-01

    This paper shows that the 1987 crash was a surprise to corporate insiders; insiders became buyers of stock in record numbers immediately following the crash; stocks that declined more during the crash were also purchased more by insiders; and stocks that were purchased more extensively by insiders during October 1987 showed larger positive returns in 1988. The overall evidence suggests that overreaction was an important part of the crash. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

  9. Association Rule Mining on Five Years of Motor Vehicle Crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daher Jean Raymond

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Every year, road accidents kill more than a million people and injure more than 20 million worldwide. This paper aims to offer guidance on road safety and create awareness by pinpointing the major causes of traffic accidents. The study investigates motor vehicle crashes in the Genesee Finger Lakes Region of New York State. Frequency Pattern Growth algorithm is utilized to cultivate knowledge and create association rules to highlight the time and environment settings that cause the most catastrophic crashes. This knowledge can be used to warn drivers about the dangers of accidents, and how the consequences are worse given a specific context. For instance, a discovered rule from the data states that ‘most of the crashes occur between 12:00 pm and 6:00pm’; hence, it is suggested to modify existing navigation application to warn drivers about the increase in risk factor.

  10. General aviation crash safety program at Langley Research Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, R. G.

    1976-01-01

    The purpose of the crash safety program is to support development of the technology to define and demonstrate new structural concepts for improved crash safety and occupant survivability in general aviation aircraft. The program involves three basic areas of research: full-scale crash simulation testing, nonlinear structural analyses necessary to predict failure modes and collapse mechanisms of the vehicle, and evaluation of energy absorption concepts for specific component design. Both analytical and experimental methods are being used to develop expertise in these areas. Analyses include both simplified procedures for estimating energy absorption capabilities and more complex computer programs for analysis of general airframe response. Full-scale tests of typical structures as well as tests on structural components are being used to verify the analyses and to demonstrate improved design concepts.

  11. Global financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MSc. Jusuf Qarkaxhija

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The most recent developments in economy are a clear indicator of many changes, which are a result of this high rate pacing, which also demonstrates as such. Market economy processes occur as a result of intertwining of many potential technological and human factors, thereby creating a system of numerous diver-gences and turbulences. Economics, a social science, is characteri-sed with movements from a system to another system, and is har-monized with elements or components which have impacted the development and application of economic policies as a result. This example can be illustrated with the passing from a commanded system (centralized to a self-governing (decentrali-zed system, while the movement from a system to another is known as transi-tion. Such transition in its own nature bears a number of problems of almost any kind (political, economic, social, etc., and is charac-terised with differences from a country to another. Financial crisis is a phenomenon consisting of a perception of economic policies and creation of an economic and financial stabi-lity in regional and global structures. From this, one may assume that each system has its own changes in its nature, and as a result of these changes, we have the crisis of such a system. Even in the economic field, if we look closely, we have such a problem, where development trends both in human and technological fields have created a large gap between older times and today, thereby crea-ting dynamics with a high intensity of action. If we dwell on the problem, and enter into the financial world, we can see that the so-called industrialized countries have made giant leaps in deve-lopment, while countries in transition have stalled in many fields, as a result of a high rate of corruption and unemployment in these countries, and obviously these indicators are directly connected, thereby stroking the financial system in these countries. Corruption is an element, which directly and indirectly

  12. Strengthening financial management, providing financial safeguard mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Wumei

    2010-01-01

    This article reviewed the history of Zhong He Shanxi Uranium Enrichment Company, summarizing an efficient and systematical financial management method during both construction period and operational period of the company. It related to fundamental financial management structure building, integrated budgeting, fund management, cost management, asset management, tax planning and HR management. of financial staffs. (author)

  13. Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, Robert; Hoeberichts, Marco; Vasicek, Borek; Zigraiova, Diana; Smidkova, Katerina; de Haan, Jakob

    This paper develops a Financial Stress Index (FSI) for 28 OECD countries and examines its relationship to crises using a novel database for financial crises. A stress index measures the current state of stress in the financial system and summarizes it in a single statistic. Our results suggest that

  14. Financial Globalization and Inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Kunieda, Takuma

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates how financial globalization and financial development affect income inequality within a country. We demonstrate that when a country is financially closed to the world market, the Gini coefficient is monotonically decreasing with respect to the degree of financial development, whereas when a country becomes so small due to financial globalization that financial development in the country does not affect the world interest rate, the Gini coefficient is monotonically incr...

  15. A different perspective on conspicuity related motorcycle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Craen, Saskia; Doumen, Michelle J A; van Norden, Yvette

    2014-02-01

    The most common type of conflict in which a motorcyclist is injured or killed is a collision between a motorcycle and a car, often in priority situations. Many studies on motorcycle safety focus on the question why car drivers fail to give priority and on the poor conspicuity of motorcycles. The concept of 'looked-but-failed-to-see' crashes is a recurring item. On the other hand, it is not entirely unexpected that motorcycles have many conflicts with cars; there simply are so many cars on the road. This paper tries to unravel whether - acknowledging the differences in exposure - car drivers indeed fail to yield for motorcycles more often than for other cars. For this purpose we compared the causes of crashes on intersections (e.g. failing to give priority, speeding, etc.) between different crash types (car-motorcycle or car-car). In addition, we compared the crash causes of dual drivers (i.e. car drivers who also have their motorcycle licence) with regular car drivers. Our crash analysis suggests that car drivers do not fail to give priority to motorcycles relatively more often than to another car when this car/motorcycle approaches from a perpendicular angle. There is only one priority situation where motorcycles seem to be at a disadvantage compared to cars. This is when a car makes a left turn, and fails to give priority to an oncoming motorcycle. This specific crash scenario occurs more often when the oncoming vehicle is a motorcycle than when it is a car. We did not find a significant difference between dual drivers and regular car drivers in how often they give priority to motorcycles compared to cars. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Pathways towards instability in financial networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardoscia, Marco; Battiston, Stefano; Caccioli, Fabio; Caldarelli, Guido

    2017-02-01

    Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily distress can spread within the system. However, in financial network models, the details of how financial institutions interact typically play a decisive role, and a general understanding of precisely how network topology creates instability remains lacking. Here we show how processes that are widely believed to stabilize the financial system, that is, market integration and diversification, can actually drive it towards instability, as they contribute to create cyclical structures which tend to amplify financial distress, thereby undermining systemic stability and making large crises more likely. This result holds irrespective of the details of how institutions interact, showing that policy-relevant analysis of the factors affecting financial stability can be carried out while abstracting away from such details.

  17. INVESTIGATION OF ROADWAY GEOMETRIC AND TRAFFIC FLOW FACTORS FOR VEHICLE CRASHES USING SPATIOTEMPORAL INTERACTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gill

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety is a major concern in the transportation industry due to immense monetary and emotional burden caused by crashes of various severity levels, especially the injury and fatality ones. To reduce such crashes on all public roads, the safety management processes are commonly implemented which include network screening, problem diagnosis, countermeasure identification, and project prioritization. The selection of countermeasures for potential mitigation of crashes is governed by the influential factors which impact roadway crashes. Crash prediction model is the tool widely adopted by safety practitioners or researchers to link various influential factors to crash occurrences. Many different approaches have been used in the past studies to develop better fitting models which also exhibit prediction accuracy. In this study, a crash prediction model is developed to investigate the vehicular crashes occurring at roadway segments. The spatial and temporal nature of crash data is exploited to form a spatiotemporal model which accounts for the different types of heterogeneities among crash data and geometric or traffic flow variables. This study utilizes the Poisson lognormal model with random effects, which can accommodate the yearly variations in explanatory variables and the spatial correlations among segments. The dependency of different factors linked with roadway geometric, traffic flow, and road surface type on vehicular crashes occurring at segments was established as the width of lanes, posted speed limit, nature of pavement, and AADT were found to be correlated with vehicle crashes.

  18. Analysis of factors associated with injury severity in crashes involving young New Zealand drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weiss, Harold B.; Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    measures within youth-oriented road safety programs. The current study estimates discrete choice models of injury severity of crashes involving young drivers conditional on these crashes having occurred. The analysis examined a comprehensive set of single-vehicle and two-vehicle crashes involving at least...

  19. Characteristics of cyclist crashes in Italy using latent class analysis and association rule mining.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Prati

    Full Text Available The factors associated with severity of the bicycle crashes may differ across different bicycle crash patterns. Therefore, it is important to identify distinct bicycle crash patterns with homogeneous attributes. The current study aimed at identifying subgroups of bicycle crashes in Italy and analyzing separately the different bicycle crash types. The present study focused on bicycle crashes that occurred in Italy during the period between 2011 and 2013. We analyzed categorical indicators corresponding to the characteristics of infrastructure (road type, road signage, and location type, road user (i.e., opponent vehicle and cyclist's maneuver, type of collision, age and gender of the cyclist, vehicle (type of opponent vehicle, and the environmental and time period variables (time of the day, day of the week, season, pavement condition, and weather. To identify homogenous subgroups of bicycle crashes, we used latent class analysis. Using latent class analysis, the bicycle crash data set was segmented into 19 classes, which represents 19 different bicycle crash types. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the association between class membership and severity of the bicycle crashes. Finally, association rules were conducted for each of the latent classes to uncover the factors associated with an increased likelihood of severity. Association rules highlighted different crash characteristics associated with an increased likelihood of severity for each of the 19 bicycle crash types.

  20. Investigation of Roadway Geometric and Traffic Flow Factors for Vehicle Crashes Using Spatiotemporal Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, G.; Sakrani, T.; Cheng, W.; Zhou, J.

    2017-09-01

    Traffic safety is a major concern in the transportation industry due to immense monetary and emotional burden caused by crashes of various severity levels, especially the injury and fatality ones. To reduce such crashes on all public roads, the safety management processes are commonly implemented which include network screening, problem diagnosis, countermeasure identification, and project prioritization. The selection of countermeasures for potential mitigation of crashes is governed by the influential factors which impact roadway crashes. Crash prediction model is the tool widely adopted by safety practitioners or researchers to link various influential factors to crash occurrences. Many different approaches have been used in the past studies to develop better fitting models which also exhibit prediction accuracy. In this study, a crash prediction model is developed to investigate the vehicular crashes occurring at roadway segments. The spatial and temporal nature of crash data is exploited to form a spatiotemporal model which accounts for the different types of heterogeneities among crash data and geometric or traffic flow variables. This study utilizes the Poisson lognormal model with random effects, which can accommodate the yearly variations in explanatory variables and the spatial correlations among segments. The dependency of different factors linked with roadway geometric, traffic flow, and road surface type on vehicular crashes occurring at segments was established as the width of lanes, posted speed limit, nature of pavement, and AADT were found to be correlated with vehicle crashes.

  1. Integrating physical and financial approaches to manage environmental financial risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characklis, Gregory; Meyer, Eliot; Foster, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Physical and/or engineered solutions have long been used to manage risks associated with adverse environmental events. Examples include reservoirs as a tool for mitigating drought-related supply risk, levees for managing flood risk and dredging of inland waterways to ensure navigability during low flow periods. These measures can reduce many types of risk (e.g., loss of life), but are often employed as a means of protecting against financial losses. When the focus is on managing environmental financial risk, physical solutions can be effective, but also costly. In many cases, non-physical tools can provide a less expensive means of managing financial risk, with these often taking the form of financial instruments such as hedging contracts, contingency funds or insurance. Some of these instruments, such as flood insurance, are widely available, but historically many environmental financial risks have been managed primarily (or solely) via physical solutions without much consideration of alternatives, thereby opening opportunities for innovation in developing financial solutions. Recent research has demonstrated that financial instruments can play a significant role in managing drought-related financial risk in sectors as diverse as water utilities, energy generation and inland navigation. Nonetheless, this work has largely considered the use of these instruments within systems in which physical solutions are already in place (but failing to achieve desired performance). The next step in the evolution of managing environmental financial risk involves developing methods for designing risk management strategies that do not assume an established physical system. Here the goal is to identify the relative role that physical solutions and financial instruments should play as they are integrated into a comprehensive risk management strategy. This is not a straightforward challenge as one approach reduces the risk of financial losses and the other redistributes those losses

  2. Communication impacting financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitting Andersen, Jørgen; Vrontos, Ioannis; Dellaportas, Petros; Galam, Serge

    2014-10-01

    Since the attribution of the Nobel prize in 2002 to Kahneman for prospect theory, behavioral finance has become an increasingly important subfield of finance. However the main parts of behavioral finance, prospect theory included, understand financial markets through individual investment behavior. Behavioral finance thereby ignores any interaction between participants. We introduce a socio-financial model (Vitting Andersen J. and Nowak A., An Introduction to Socio-Finance (Springer, Berlin) 2013) that studies the impact of communication on the pricing in financial markets. Considering the simplest possible case where each market participant has either a positive (bullish) or negative (bearish) sentiment with respect to the market, we model the evolution of the sentiment in the population due to communication in subgroups of different sizes. Nonlinear feedback effects between the market performance and changes in sentiments are taken into account by assuming that the market performance is dependent on changes in sentiments (e.g., a large sudden positive change in bullishness would lead to more buying). The market performance in turn has an impact on the sentiment through the transition probabilities to change an opinion in a group of a given size. The idea is that if for example the market has observed a recent downturn, it will be easier for even a bearish minority to convince a bullish majority to change opinion compared to the case where the meeting takes place in a bullish upturn of the market. Within the framework of our proposed model, financial markets stylized facts such as volatility clustering and extreme events may be perceived as arising due to abrupt sentiment changes via ongoing communication of the market participants. The model introduces a new volatility measure which is apt of capturing volatility clustering and from maximum-likelihood analysis we are able to apply the model to real data and give additional long term insight into where a market is

  3. Accident analysis for aircraft crash into hazardous facilities: DOE standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-10-01

    This standard provides the user with sufficient information to evaluate and assess the significance of aircraft crash risk on facility safety without expending excessive effort where it is not required. It establishes an approach for performing a conservative analysis of the risk posed by a release of hazardous radioactive or chemical material resulting from an aircraft crash into a facility containing significant quantities of such material. This can establish whether a facility has a significant potential for an aircraft impact and whether this has the potential for producing significant offsite or onsite consequences. General implementation guidance, screening and evaluation guidelines, and methodologies for the evaluations are included

  4. Fatal Cervical Spine Injury Following a Bicycle Crash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uhrenholt Lars

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Spinal injury following direct loading of the head and neck is a rare sequel of bicycle crashes. Fatal head injuries following bicycle crashes have been described in great detail and safety measures such as bicycle helmets have been developed accordingly. Less frequently, however, potentially severe cervical spine injuries have been described. We present the case of a middle-aged female who sustained an ultimately fatal cervical spine injury following a collision with a car whilst biking wearing a helmet. We discuss the literature regarding the protective effects of bicycle helmets, the relevance to cervical spine injury and legislation on mandatory use of helmets for injury prevention.

  5. Biomechanical Response and Behavior of Users under Emergency Buffer Crash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Miralbes

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to study the biomechanical effects on elevator users and the injuries sustained should an elevator crash happen. The analysis will focus on buffer impact, signaling that the earlier mentioned buffer is usually located at the bottom of the pit. In order to carry out this analysis, a numerical technique based on finite element method will be used, while elevator users will be simulated by means of automotive dummies. Two crash factors will be studied, namely, location of dummy and fall velocity. The analysis criteria will be damages sustained by the dummy, based on biomechanical index such as HIC, CSI, forces, and accelerations.

  6. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  7. Developing a financial inclusion index and inclusive growth in India

    OpenAIRE

    Susanta Kumar SETHY

    2016-01-01

    Financial inclusion is one of the systems through which Inclusive Growth can be achieved in developing countries like India where large sections are unable or hopeless to contribute in the financial system. An inclusive financial system mobilizes more resources for productive purposes leading to higher economic growth, better opportunities and reduction of poverty. This study, proposed an Index of financial inclusion – a multidimensional measure. The Financial Inclusion Index c...

  8. The Regression Analysis of Individual Financial Performance: Evidence from Croatia

    OpenAIRE

    Bahovec, Vlasta; Barbić, Dajana; Palić, Irena

    2017-01-01

    Background: A large body of empirical literature indicates that gender and financial literacy are significant determinants of individual financial performance. Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to recognize the impact of the variable financial literacy and the variable gender on the variation of the financial performance using the regression analysis. Methods/Approach: The survey was conducted using the systematically chosen random sample of Croatian financial consumers. The cross sect...

  9. Financial Literacy and Financial Planning in France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luc Arrondel

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We study financial literacy in France using the PATER survey and following the Lusardi and Mitchell (2011c approach. We find that some subpopulations are less financially literate than others: women, young and old people as well as less-educated people are more likely to face difficulties when dealing with fundamental financial concepts such as risk diversification and inflation and interest compounding. We also find some differences in financial knowledge depending on the political opinion of the respondents. Finally we show that these differences in financial knowledge are correlated with differences in the propensity to plan: people who score higher on the financial literacy questions are more likely to be engaged in the preparation of a clearly defined financial plan.

  10. Reducing financial avalanches by random investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea; Helbing, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    Building on similarities between earthquakes and extreme financial events, we use a self-organized criticality-generating model to study herding and avalanche dynamics in financial markets. We consider a community of interacting investors, distributed in a small-world network, who bet on the bullish (increasing) or bearish (decreasing) behavior of the market which has been specified according to the S&P 500 historical time series. Remarkably, we find that the size of herding-related avalanches in the community can be strongly reduced by the presence of a relatively small percentage of traders, randomly distributed inside the network, who adopt a random investment strategy. Our findings suggest a promising strategy to limit the size of financial bubbles and crashes. We also obtain that the resulting wealth distribution of all traders corresponds to the well-known Pareto power law, while that of random traders is exponential. In other words, for technical traders, the risk of losses is much greater than the probability of gains compared to those of random traders.

  11. Antilock braking system effectiveness in prevention of road traffic crashes in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khorasani-Zavareh, Davoud; Shoar, Saeed; Saadat, Soheil

    2013-05-04

    Anti-lock Brake System (ABS) helps the equipped vehicles to stop under heavy braking, in a shorter distance and with a better control of direction. It was expected that this technology will reduce the rate of fatal road traffic crashes (RTC); however, the outcome is controversial in the real world. The aim of this study is to compare the claimed annual incidence rate and financial losses due to RTCs in ABS vs. non-ABS personal vehicles in Iran. A telephone survey among drivers of two similar models of personal vehicles was arranged. The studied vehicles were of the same brand and type; but only one of them was equipped with ABS. The number of RTCs, subsequent financial loss, and drivers' knowledge and perception about ABS were sought. The sample consisted of drivers of 1232 ABS and 3123 non-ABS vehicles. The annual incidence rate of RTC involving another vehicle was 145.1 (134.8-155.9) per 1000 vehicle-years and there was not a statistically significant difference between study groups.The incidence of RTC with another vehicle due to brake failure was 50.3 (42.9-58.5) for 1000 non ABS vehicle-years and 30.0 (21.2-41.2) for 1000 ABS equipped vehicle-years. The difference was statistically significant after adjustment for the driver and vehicle's age and the daily driving time. The attributable risk of RTC for non-ABS vehicles was 20/1000 vehicles and the excess fraction was 39.8%. The mean financial loss due to reported RTCs was $987.9 ± $1547.3 US Dollars and there was not a statistically significant difference between study groups. While 61.1% of ABS vehicle drivers reported situations in which they believed the ABS had prevented a crash, 44.1% of them however, they did not know how to use ABS efficiently. Law enforcement to maintain safe distance and adhere to speed limit while driving, is needed to raise the effectiveness of ABS. This is as necessary as considering mandatory outfitting of ABS. Safety authorities should first consider the global experience

  12. Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoarau, Quentin

    2016-01-01

    Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms. PMID:26761792

  13. CRASH-2 Study of Tranexamic Acid to Treat Bleeding in Trauma Patients: A Controversy Fueled by Science and Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binz, Sophia; McCollester, Jonathon; Thomas, Scott; Miller, Joseph; Pohlman, Timothy; Waxman, Dan; Shariff, Faisal; Tracy, Rebecca; Walsh, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews the application of tranexamic acid, an antifibrinolytic, to trauma. CRASH-2, a large randomized controlled trial, was the first to show a reduction in mortality and recommend tranexamic acid use in bleeding trauma patients. However, this paper was not without controversy. Its patient recruitment, methodology, and conductance in moderate-to-low income countries cast doubt on its ability to be applied to trauma protocols in countries with mature trauma networks. In addition to traditional vetting in scientific, peer-reviewed journals, CRASH-2 came about at a time when advances in communication technology allowed debate and influence to be leveraged in new forms, specifically through the use of multimedia campaigns, social media, and Internet blogs. This paper presents a comprehensive view of tranexamic acid utilization in trauma from peer-reviewed evidence to novel multimedia influences.

  14. Financial planning

    OpenAIRE

    Χατζηγώγου, Αρτεμις Π.

    2003-01-01

    Σκοπός της μελέτης αυτής, είναι η συγκέντρωση όλων των στοιχείων εκείνων που συνθέτουν μια οργανωμένη διαδικασία έρευνας, που είναι γνωστή ως Financial Planning. Θα μπορούσαμε εναλλακτικά να πούμε, ότι βασικά ο χρηματοοικονομικός σχεδιασμός προγραμματίζει, εξευρίσκει και χρησιμοποιεί τα κεφάλαια με τέτοιο τρόπο ώστε η συνεισφορά τους να είναι μεγαλύτερη στην αποτελεσματική λειτουργία της οικονομικής μονάδας. Παρέχει τις γνώσεις των χρηματιστικών αγορών από όπου αντλούνται τα κεφάλαια. Οδηγεί ...

  15. Factors influencing pediatric Injury Severity Score and Glasgow Coma Scale in pediatric automobile crashes: results from the Crash Injury Research Engineering Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, Peter F; Brown, J Kristine; Sochor, Mark R; Wang, Stewart C; Eichelberger, Martin E

    2006-11-01

    Motor vehicle crashes account for more than 50% of pediatric injuries. Triage of pediatric patients to appropriate centers can be based on the crash/injury characteristics. Pediatric motor vehicle crash/injury characteristics can be determined from an in vitro laboratory using child crash dummies. However, to date, no detailed data with respect to outcomes and crash mechanism have been presented with a pediatric in vivo model. The Crash Injury Research Engineering Network is comprised of 10 level 1 trauma centers. Crashes were examined with regard to age, crash severity (DeltaV), crash direction, restraint use, and airbag deployment. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed with Injury Severity Score (ISS) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) as outcomes. Standard age groupings (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-18) were used. The database is biases toward a survivor population with few fatalities. Four hundred sixty-one motor vehicle crashes with 2500 injuries were analyzed (242 boys, 219 girls). Irrespective of age, DeltaV > 30 mph resulted in increased ISS and decreased GCS (eg, for 0-4 years, DeltaV 30: ISS = 19.5, GCS = 10.6; P 15) injuries than did backseat passengers (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 0.7-3.4). A trend was noted for children younger than 12 years sitting in the front seat to have increased ISS and decreased GCS with airbag deployment but was limited by case number. A reproducible pattern of increased ISS and lower GCS characterized by high severity, lateral crashes in children was noted. Further analysis of the specific injuries as a function and the crash characteristic can help guide management and prevention strategies.

  16. Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Catalin-Florinel Stanescu; Laurentiu Mircea Simion

    2011-01-01

    Concerns about the financial risk is increasing. In this climate, companies of all types and sizes want a robust framework for financial risk management to meet compliance requirements, contribute to better decision making and increase performance. Financial risk management professionals working with financial institutions and other corporate clients to achieve these objectives.

  17. Association between mobile phone traffic volume and road crash fatalities: A population-based case-crossover study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Stafoggia, Massimo; Bruzzone, Silvia; Pelliccioni, Armando; Forastiere, Francesco

    2018-06-01

    Use of mobile phones while driving is known to cause crashes with possible fatalities. Different habits of mobile phone use might be distracting forces and display differential impacts on accident risk; the assessment of the relative importance is relevant to implement prevention, mitigation, and control measures. This study aimed to assess the relationship between the use of mobile phones at population level and road crash fatalities in large urban areas. Data on road crashes with fatalities were collected from seven Italian metropolitan areas and matched in time and space with high resolution mobile phone traffic volume data about calls, texts, Internet connections and upload/download data. A case-crossover study design was applied to estimate the relative risks of road accident for increases in each type of mobile phone traffic volumes in underlying population present in the small areas where accidents occurred. Effect modification was evaluated by weekday/weekend, hour of the day, meteorological conditions, and street densities. Positive associations between road crashes rates and the number of calls, texts, and Internet connections were found, with incremental risks of 17.2% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.7, 27.6), 8.4% (CI 0.7, 16.8), and 54.6% (CI 34.0, 78.5) per increases (at 15 min intervals) of 5 calls/100 people, 3 text/100 people, and 40 connections/100 people, respectively. Small differences across cities were detected. Working days, nighttime and morning hours were associated with greater phone use and more road accidents. The relationship between mobile phone use and road fatalities at population level is strong. Strict controls on cellular phone in the vehicle may results in a large health benefit. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Forensic odontological observations in the victims of DANA air crash ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Forensic odontology or forensic dentistry is that aspect of forensic science that uses the application of dental science for the identification of unknown human remains and bite marks. Deaths resulting from mass disasters such as plane crash or fire incidence have always been given mass burial in Nigeria.

  19. Finite pressure effects on the tokamak sawtooth crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, Yasutaro

    1998-07-01

    The sawtooth crash is a hazardous, disruptive phenomenon that is observed in tokamaks whenever the safety factor at the magnetic axis is below unity. Recently, Tokamak Test Fusion Reactor (TFTR) experimental data has revealed interesting features of the dynamical pressure evolution during the crash phase. Motivated by the experimental results, this dissertation focuses on theoretical modeling of the finite pressure effects on the nonlinear stage of the sawtooth crash. The crash phase has been studied numerically employed a toroidal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) initial value code deduced from the FAR code. For the first time, by starting from a concentric equilibrium, it has been shown that the evolution through an m/n = 1/1 magnetic island induces secondary high-n ballooning instabilities. The magnetic island evolution gives rise to convection of the pressure inside the inversion radius and builds up a steep pressure gradient across the island separatrix, or current sheet, and thereby triggers ballooning instabilities below the threshold for the axisymmetric equilibrium. Due to the onset of secondary ballooning modes, concomitant fine scale vortices and magnetic stochasticity are generated. These effects produce strong flows across the current sheet, and thereby significant modify the m = 1 driven magnetic reconnection process. The resultant interaction of the high-n ballooning modes with the magnetic reconnection process is discussed

  20. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

    Science.gov (United States)

    HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

  1. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudomiet, Péter; Kézdi, Gábor; Willis, Robert J

    2011-01-01

    This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

  2. The cost of crashes in South Africa 2016

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Labuschagne, F

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available to eradicate poverty and grow the economy. The previous Road Traffic Crashes (RTCs) cost estimation was published in 2004 by the Department of Transport (DoT). Though it was useful for benefit/cost evaluation of road safety programmes and projects targeting...

  3. Patterns of Injuries After Road Traffic Crashes Involving Bodabodas

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-01-12

    Jan 12, 2010 ... Globally, trauma resulting from road traffic crashes is a major cause of death and disability with majority occur- ... Bodabodas are a major form of transport in the city of. Kampala and in other towns in East Africa. .... Injury Control Injury Surveillance Reports (2000 – 2003). Injury Control Centre, Kampala. 4.

  4. Exploring older driver crash trend: New Jersey case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanvi Trieu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Older drivers age 65 and above are known to experience greater risk on the roadway as well as increasing the risk to other roadway users. Within the next 20 years, their population is expected to increase from 41 million in 2011 to 70 million in 2030. To address this foreseeable change, the nation's recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21 act requires state and local governments to examine older drivers and pedestrian risks and implement countermeasures as appropriate. This research was conducted to assist agencies in strategising for future plans, programmes and initiatives to better address the problem presented. This was accomplished by performing a detailed engineering analysis on crash data of older drivers over a 10-year period (2003–2012 from the state of New Jersey to identify crash trends and characteristics. A major finding from this research was the increase in fatal crashes of older drivers as a function of age. Top-ranking collision types with other vehicles and non-vehicles were identified. Crashes as a function of seasonal change, climate and lighting conditions were also examined.

  5. Aircraft-crash-protected roof design for the European SBWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Posta, B.A.; Kadar, I.; Rao, A.S.

    1995-01-01

    The European utility requirement document (EURD) places significant emphasis on aircraft crash protection of the reactor building - Alternative concepts were evaluated for protecting the dry-well head and the fuel pool from the effect of the spalling concrete for the General Electric Company's European simplified boiling water reactor (ESBWR) designs

  6. Real time control of restraint systems in frontal crashes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Griotto, G.; Lemmen, P.P.M.; Eijnden, E.A.C. van den; Leijsen, A.C.P. van; Schie, C. van; Cooper, J.

    2007-01-01

    It is generally accepted that the targets for fatality reduction in car accidents set by Governments in Europe, USA and Japan can only be met by using advanced technologies that will include a broad range of sensors to monitor the crash likelihood and severity, vehicle condition, occupant type and

  7. Mass casualty triage after an airplane crash near Amsterdam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Ingri L. E.; Weel, Hanneke; Heetveld, Martin J.; van der Zande, Ineke; Bijlsma, Taco S.; Bloemers, Frank W.; Goslings, J. Carel

    2013-01-01

    Triage is an important aspect of the management of mass casualty incidents. This study describes the triage after the Turkish Airlines Crash near Amsterdam in 2009. The results of the triage and the injuries of P3 casualties were evaluated. In addition, the role of the trauma mechanism and its

  8. High-frequency Trading, Algorithmic Finance, and the Flash Crash

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borch, Christian

    2016-01-01

    The Flash Crash of 6 May 2010 has an interesting status in discussions of high-frequency trading, i.e. fully automated, superfast computerized trading: it is invoked both as an important illustration of how this field of algorithmic trading operates and, more often, as an example of how fully aut...... about resonance in quantitative finance....

  9. Feedback control of occupant motion during a crash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hesseling, R.J.; Steinbuch, M.; Veldpaus, F.E.; Klisch, T.

    2006-01-01

    Passive in-vehicle safety systems such as the air bag and the belt restrain the occupant during a crash. However, often their behavior is not optimal in terms of occupant injuries. This paper discusses an approach to design an ideal restraint system. The problem is formulated as a feedback tracking

  10. Rates of credit obligations compliance on IFRS financial statement as a factor of financial stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Uvarova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available For the purposes of effective management of economic activity of the entities of insufficiently own accounting information. For objective assessment of a financial and economic provision of the entity it is necessary to pass from separate accounting data to certain valuable ratios of major factors – to financial performance or financial ratios. Calculation and interpretation of their values the integral and essentially necessary part of a financial analysis, especially it is important if the company has credit liabilities. Conditions of credit agreements often include accomplishment of credit covenants which represent restrictions for activities and a financial position of the company in addition to timely settlement of percent and a body of the credit and provide to lessors a certain level of safety from bankruptcy of the debtor. The article considers the covenants and financial covenants definitions; the main financial covenants containing in credit agreements between large banks and borrowers; data on structure of a credit portfolio and financial debt of NLMK as at June 30, 2016; the main financial covenants containing in credit agreements of the companies of NLMK Group; definitions and formulas of calculation of financial rates based on the IFRS financial statement; calculation of covenants on the example of IFRS consolidated financial statements of NLMK; subtleties of calculation of financial rates; the main differences of financial rates calculation based on the financial statements prepared on the different principles; conclusion about stability and a financial condition of NLMK by the results received during calculation financial covenants as at end of the first half of the year 2016.

  11. U.S. Civil Air Show Crashes, 1993 to 2013: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and Evaluation of a Risk Index for Aviation Crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Osorio, Victor B

    2015-01-01

    This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA's General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board's data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 20.6, P Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes.

  12. Narrative text analysis to identify technologies to prevent motor vehicle crashes: examples from military vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollack, Keshia M; Yee, Nathan; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; Rossen, Lauren; Bachynski, Kathleen E; Baker, Susan P

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this research is to describe the leading circumstances of military vehicle crashes to guide prioritization and implementation of crash avoidance and/or warning technologies. A descriptive study using narrative text analysis on 3,944 military vehicle crash narratives. Crash data on drivers, from 2001 to 2006, were assembled from the U.S. Army Combat Readiness/Safety Center. Reviewers collected information on the circumstances of crashes and determined if vehicle technology could have prevented the crash. Nearly 98% of the crashes were nonfatal; 63% occurred in the U.S. and 24% in Iraq. Among crash events where the direction of the impact was recorded, 32% were to the front of the vehicle and 16% involved a vehicle being rear-ended. Rollovers were mentioned in 20% of the narratives. Technology was determined to have the potential to prevent 26% of the crashes, with the forward collision warning system, rear end collision avoidance, emergency brake assistance, and rollover stability control system likely to have the greatest impacts. Some technologies available for civilian vehicles may prevent certain military crash circumstances. The results of this research are significant in light of ongoing global military operations that rely on military vehicles. Improving the preventive technology featured on military vehicles may be an effective strategy to reduce the occurrence of military crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Increased inequality in mortality from road crashes among Arabs and Jews in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magid, Avi; Leibovitch-Zur, Shalhevet; Baron-Epel, Orna

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies in several countries have shown that the economically disadvantaged seem to have a greater risk of being involved in a car crash. The aim of the present study was to compare rates and trends in mortality and injury from road crashes by age among the Arab and Jewish populations in Israel. Data on road crashes with casualties (2003-2011) from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics were analyzed. Age-adjusted road crash injury rates and mortality rates for 2003 to 2011 were calculated and time trends for each age group and population group are presented. Time trend significance was evaluated by linear regression models. Arabs in Israel are at increased risk of injury and mortality from road crashes compared to Jews. Road crash injury rates have significantly decreased in both populations over the last decade, although the rates have been persistently higher among Arabs. Road crash mortality rates have also decreased significantly in the Jewish population but not in the Arab population. This implies an increase in the disparity in mortality between Jews and Arabs. The most prominent differences in road crash injury and mortality rates between Arabs and Jews can be observed in young adults and young children. The reduction in road crashes in the last decade is a positive achievement. However, the reductions are not equal among Arabs and Jews in Israel. Therefore, an increase in the disparities in mortality from road crashes is apparent. Public health efforts need to focus specifically on decreasing road crashes in the Arab community.

  14. COMPARISON OF SEVERITY AFFECTING FACTORS BETWEEN YOUNG AND OLDER DRIVERS INVOLVED IN SINGLE VEHICLE CRASHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunanda DISSANAYAKE, Ph.D., P.E.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Single vehicle crashes contribute to a significant amount of fatalities in the United States. At the same time, fatality crash involvement rates of young and older drivers are well above the average and both groups are identified as critical groups when it comes to highway safety. Therefore, the study described in this paper developed separate models to predict crash severity of single vehicle crashes by young and older drivers. By using the models, factors affecting towards increased crash severity were identified for each group and comparisons were made. Almost all the common identified factors influenced both driver groups in the same manner except in the case of alcohol and drug usage, which indicated an interesting finding in the case of crash severity of older drivers. Speeding and non-usage of a restraint device were the two most important factors affecting towards increased crash severity for both driver groups at all severity levels. Additionally, ejection and existence of curve/grade were determinants of higher young driver crash severity at all levels. For older drivers, having a frontal impact point was a severity determinant at all levels. County of residence and weather condition were not effective in making any changes with respect to crash severity at any level, while some other factors had a minimal affect. Findings of this study are beneficial in investigating the potential ways of reducing crash severity, which could also be influential in reducing the occurrence of crashes as well.

  15. Characteristics of Single Vehicle Crashes with a Teen Driver in South Carolina, 2005-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shults, Ruth A; Bergen, Gwen; Smith, Tracy J; Cook, Larry; Kindelberger, John; West, Bethany

    2017-09-22

    Teens' crash risk is highest in the first years of independent driving. Circumstances surrounding fatal crashes have been widely documented, but less is known about factors related to nonfatal teen driver crashes. This study describes single vehicle nonfatal crashes involving the youngest teen drivers (15-17 years), compares these crashes to single vehicle nonfatal crashes among adult drivers (35-44 years) and examines factors related to nonfatal injury producing crashes for teen drivers. Police crash data linked to hospital inpatient and emergency department data for 2005-2008 from the South Carolina Crash Outcomes Data Evaluation System (CODES) were analyzed. Nonfatal, single vehicle crashes involving passenger vehicles occurring on public roadways for teen (15-17 years) drivers were compared with those for adult (35-44 years) drivers on temporal patterns and crash risk factors per licensed driver and per vehicle miles traveled. Vehicle miles traveled by age group was estimated using data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. Multivariable log-linear regression analysis was conducted for teen driver crashes to determine which characteristics were related to crashes resulting in a minor/moderate injury or serious injury to at least one vehicle occupant. Compared with adult drivers, teen drivers in South Carolina had 2.5 times the single vehicle nonfatal crash rate per licensed driver and 11 times the rate per vehicle mile traveled. Teen drivers were nearly twice as likely to be speeding at the time of the crash compared with adult drivers. Teen driver crashes per licensed driver were highest during the afternoon hours of 3:00-5:59 pm and crashes per mile driven were highest during the nighttime hours of 9:00-11:59 pm. In 66% of the teen driver crashes, the driver was the only occupant. Crashes were twice as likely to result in serious injury when teen passengers were present than when the teen driver was alone. When teen drivers crashed while

  16. Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hautsch, N.; Schaumburg, J.; Schienle, M.

    2014-01-01

    We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for the timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and

  17. Activity modes selection for project crashing through deterministic simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashok Mohanty

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The time-cost trade-off problem addressed by CPM-based analytical approaches, assume unlimited resources and the existence of a continuous time-cost function. However, given the discrete nature of most resources, the activities can often be crashed only stepwise. Activity crashing for discrete time-cost function is also known as the activity modes selection problem in the project management. This problem is known to be NP-hard. Sophisticated optimization techniques such as Dynamic Programming, Integer Programming, Genetic Algorithm, Ant Colony Optimization have been used for finding efficient solution to activity modes selection problem. The paper presents a simple method that can provide efficient solution to activity modes selection problem for project crashing.Design/methodology/approach: Simulation based method implemented on electronic spreadsheet to determine activity modes for project crashing. The method is illustrated with the help of an example.Findings: The paper shows that a simple approach based on simple heuristic and deterministic simulation can give good result comparable to sophisticated optimization techniques.Research limitations/implications: The simulation based crashing method presented in this paper is developed to return satisfactory solutions but not necessarily an optimal solution.Practical implications: The use of spreadsheets for solving the Management Science and Operations Research problems make the techniques more accessible to practitioners. Spreadsheets provide a natural interface for model building, are easy to use in terms of inputs, solutions and report generation, and allow users to perform what-if analysis.Originality/value: The paper presents the application of simulation implemented on a spreadsheet to determine efficient solution to discrete time cost tradeoff problem.

  18. The risk of groundling fatalities from unintentional airplane crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K M; Rabouw, R F; Cooke, R M

    2001-12-01

    The crashes of four hijacked commercial planes on September 11, 2001, and the repeated televised images of the consequent collapse of the World Trade Center and one side of the Pentagon will inevitably change people's perceptions of the mortality risks to people on the ground from crashing airplanes. Goldstein and colleagues were the first to quantify the risk for Americans of being killed on the ground from a crashing airplane for unintentional events, providing average point estimates of 6 in a hundred million for annual risk and 4.2 in a million for lifetime risk. They noted that the lifetime risk result exceeded the commonly used risk management threshold of 1 in a million, and suggested that the risk to "groundlings" could be a useful risk communication tool because (a) it is a man-made risk (b) arising from economic activities (c) from which the victims derive no benefit and (d) exposure to which the victims cannot control. Their results have been used in risk communication. This analysis provides updated estimates of groundling fatality risks from unintentional crashes using more recent data and a geographical information system approach to modeling the population around airports. The results suggest that the average annual risk is now 1.2 in a hundred million and the lifetime risk is now 9 in ten million (below the risk management threshold). Analysis of the variability and uncertainty of this estimate, however, suggests that the exposure to groundling fatality risk varies by about a factor of approximately 100 in the spatial dimension of distance to an airport, with the risk declining rapidly outside the first 2 miles around an airport. We believe that the risk to groundlings from crashing airplanes is more useful in the context of risk communication when information about variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is characterized, but we suspect that recent events will alter its utility in risk communication.

  19. CENTRAL BANKS AND FINANCIAL STABILITY - Literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina APÃTÃCHIOAE

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Financial stability is a feature of the financial system, reflecting its ability to determine an efficient allocation of the resources and to manage financial risk by its own self-regulating mechanisms. Since the condition of financial systems changes over time, due to various shocks that components suffers, financial stability is a dynamic feature, but the system itself is constantly attempting to recover under the action of specific auto regulatory mechanisms. It is generally accepted that central banks play an important role in ensuring financial stability, there are a number of specific features that can help them achieve financial stability. Recent phenomena such as deregulation, globalization, the intensification of innovation, and so on, have supplemented the functions of central banks and at the same time, led to an intensification of links between banking and other large sectors of the financial system: insurance and financial markets.The objective of this article is to present the different views in the literature on the role of the central bank in ensuring financial stability and the new challenges that she must confront in assuming this new mandate. The role of central banks in ensuring financial stability is in the forefront and should be expanded beyond the traditional functions of stability, which determined that monetary and stability policies to converge. Moreover, due to vulnerabilities manifested by the financial markets in recent decades and that capital flows have become more intense, these vulnerabilities may spread rapidly, increasing the fragility of all markets and, for this reason, ensuring financial stability has become a key objective of public policies. Especially, since the stability of financial systems stimulates economic development and improved living standards, the competent authorities pays a particular attention to these issues

  20. The effects of age, gender, and crash types on drivers' injury-related health care costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Sijun; Neyens, David M

    2015-04-01

    There are many studies that evaluate the effects of age, gender, and crash types on crash related injury severity. However, few studies investigate the effects of those crash factors on the crash related health care costs for drivers that are transported to hospital. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between drivers' age, gender, and the crash types, as well as other crash characteristics (e.g., not wearing a seatbelt, weather condition, and fatigued driving), on the crash related health care costs. The South Carolina Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (SC CODES) from 2005 to 2007 was used to construct six separate hierarchical linear regression models based on drivers' age and gender. The results suggest that older drivers have higher health care costs than younger drivers and male drivers tend to have higher health care costs than female drivers in the same age group. Overall, single vehicle crashes had the highest health care costs for all drivers. For males older than 64-years old sideswipe crashes are as costly as single vehicle crashes. In general, not wearing a seatbelt, airbag deployment, and speeding were found to be associated with higher health care costs. Distraction-related crashes are more likely to be associated with lower health care costs in most cases. Furthermore this study highlights the value of considering drivers in subgroups, as some factors have different effects on health care costs in different driver groups. Developing an understanding of longer term outcomes of crashes and their characteristics can lead to improvements in vehicle technology, educational materials, and interventions to reduce crash-related health care costs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. FINANCIAL DEPTH AND FINANCIAL ACCESS IN INDONESIA

    OpenAIRE

    Sigit Setiawan

    2015-01-01

    This study is intended to analyse the current levels of financial depth and financial access in Indonesia and to analyse the factors affecting them. The analysis method used was a combination of descriptive quantitative, benchmarking, and literature reviews. The conclusion is that the financial depth in Indonesia has not shown a satisfactory level since it was the lowest, or the second lowest ranked country among the sampled countries. Meanwhile, the financial access in Indonesia is relativel...

  2. Financial Ratios and Perceived Household Financial Satisfaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Garrett

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper tests the relative strength of three objective measures of financial health (using the solvency, liquidity, and investment asset ratio in predicting a household’s subjective feeling of current financial satisfaction. Using a sample of 6,923 respondents in the 2008 Health and Retirement Study this paper presents evidence of two main findings: 1 the solvency ratio is most strongly associated with financial satisfaction levels based on a cross-sectional design and 2 changes in the investment asset ratio are most strongly associated with changes in financial satisfaction over time.

  3. Financial Depth and Financial Access in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Setiawan, Sigit

    2015-01-01

    This study is intended to analyse the current levels of financial depth and financial access in Indonesia and to analyse the factors affecting them. The analysis method used was a combination of descriptive quantitative, benchmarking, and literature reviews. The conclusion is that the financial depth in Indonesia has not shown a satisfactory level since it was the lowest, or the second lowest ranked country among the sampled countries. Meanwhile, the financial access in Indonesia is relativel...

  4. Financial analysis as a financial management instrument

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stehlíková Beáta

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available The financial market is one of the elements of the market-oriented economy. The financial analysis is a fundamental element of the financial controlling business. The purpose of this article is to inform briefly about horizontal and vertical financial statements analysis as the source of competitive advantage of the firm. The article is divided into two parts. First describes financial analysis and financial statements generally. Second, it presents a practical contribution of the horizontal and vertical financial statements analysis at the controlled businesses as financial management tools, which identify the financial position, market behaviour, correlations between the net profit and the prohibitively cost and operating profit, the financial activities profit, the income tax etc.Business, which the analysed firm operates in asks a provable claim on the high value of fixed assets. The capital composition of the firm is call to typify for the state-owned enterprise that was transformed to private joint-stock companies. Analysis is specially pleading for the needs considering the price of the borrowed capital in the capital structure rating. Fault factor ø value talks about needs for the cost regulation. Stair-step conception used for counting of the net profit in the accountant period indicates the financial profit, alternatively loss, as the distinguished pre-tax profit element. Picture about firm’s financial results can be completed with the information about the income tax value. Form of financial analyses presented in the article entablature the accents on the necessity to compare several accounting period and on the necessity of complex understanding of statements accounting slide “en bloc”.Financial analyse makes the decision makers possible to screen potential partners before the cooperation starts. On the other side, it makes a possibility to influence the production process, sales and financial management during the accounting

  5. Deaths from international terrorism compared with road crash deaths in OECD countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, N; Thomson, G

    2005-12-01

    To estimate the relative number of deaths in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from international terrorism and road crashes. Data on deaths from international terrorism (US State Department database) were collated (1994-2003) and compared to the road injury deaths (year 2000 and 2001 data) from the OECD International Road Transport Accident Database. In the 29 OECD countries for which comparable data were available, the annual average death rate from road injury was approximately 390 times that from international terrorism. The ratio of annual road to international terrorism deaths (averaged over 10 years) was lowest for the United States at 142 times. In 2001, road crash deaths in the US were equal to those from a September 11 attack every 26 days. There is a large difference in the magnitude of these two causes of deaths from injury. Policy makers need to be aware of this when allocating resources to preventing these two avoidable causes of mortality.

  6. Why Ecologists Should Care about Financial Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaz, Victor; Gars, Johan; Moberg, Fredrik; Nykvist, Björn; Repinski, Cecilia

    2015-10-01

    Financial actors such as international banks and investors play an important role in the global economy. This role is shifting due to financial innovations, increased sustainability ambitions from large financial actors, and changes in international commodity markets. These changes are creating new global connections that potentially make financial markets, actors, and instruments important aspects of global environmental change. Despite this, the way financial markets and actors affect ecosystem change in different parts of the world has seldom been elaborated in the literature. We summarize these financial trends, explore how they connect to ecosystems and ecological change in both direct and indirect ways, and elaborate on crucial research gaps. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  8. Longtan hydropower project and the financial constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Zhao.

    1995-01-01

    China has large untapped resources of hydropower, including such schemes as the Longtan project on the Hongshui river. Despite the attractiveness of the resource and China's need for power, development of these projects is constrained by financial problems. (Author)

  9. Household Financial Distress and Initial Endowments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olafsson, Arna

    2016-01-01

    ( 4000 g). I also find evidence that the collapse reduced the sex ratio, indicating selection in utero due to maternal prenatal stress exposure. My results imply large welfare losses from financial distress that have hitherto been ignored...

  10. Social costs of road crashes: An international analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Wim; Stipdonk, Henk

    2016-09-01

    This paper provides an international overview of the most recent estimates of the social costs of road crashes: total costs, value per casualty and breakdown in cost components. The analysis is based on publications about the national costs of road crashes of 17 countries, of which ten high income countries (HICs) and seven low and middle income countries (LMICs). Costs are expressed as a proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP). Differences between countries are described and explained. These are partly a consequence of differences in the road safety level, but there are also methodological explanations. Countries may or may not correct for underreporting of road crashes, they may or may not use the internationally recommended willingness to pay (WTP)-method for estimating human costs, and there are methodological differences regarding the calculation of some other cost components. The analysis shows that the social costs of road crashes in HICs range from 0.5% to 6.0% of the GDP with an average of 2.7%. Excluding countries that do not use a WTP- method for estimating human costs and countries that do not correct for underreporting, results in average costs of 3.3% of GDP. For LMICs that do correct for underreporting the share in GDP ranges from 1.1% to 2.9%. However, none of the LMICs included has performed a WTP study of the human costs. A major part of the costs is related to injuries: an average share of 50% for both HICs and LMICs. The average share of fatalities in the costs is 23% and 30% respectively. Prevention of injuries is thus important to bring down the socio-economic burden of road crashes. The paper shows that there are methodological differences between countries regarding cost components that are taken into account and regarding the methods used to estimate specific cost components. In order to be able to make sound comparisons of the costs of road crashes across countries, (further) harmonization of cost studies is recommended. This can be

  11. Assessing the role of pavement macrotexture in preventing crashes on highways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulugurtha, Srinivas S; Kusam, Prasanna R; Patel, Kuvleshay J

    2010-02-01

    The objective of this article is to assess the role of pavement macrotexture in preventing crashes on highways in the State of North Carolina. Laser profilometer data obtained from the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) for highways comprising four corridors are processed to calculate pavement macrotexture at 100-m (approximately 330-ft) sections according to the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards. Crash data collected over the same lengths of the corridors were integrated with the calculated pavement macrotexture for each section. Scatterplots were generated to assess the role of pavement macrotexture on crashes and logarithm of crashes. Regression analyses were conducted by considering predictor variables such as million vehicle miles of travel (as a function of traffic volume and length), the number of interchanges, the number of at-grade intersections, the number of grade-separated interchanges, and the number of bridges, culverts, and overhead signs along with pavement macrotexture to study the statistical significance of relationship between pavement macrotexture and crashes (both linear and log-linear) when compared to other predictor variables. Scatterplots and regression analysis conducted indicate a more statistically significant relationship between pavement macrotexture and logarithm of crashes than between pavement macrotexture and crashes. The coefficient for pavement macrotexture, in general, is negative, indicating that the number of crashes or logarithm of crashes decreases as it increases. The relation between pavement macrotexture and logarithm of crashes is generally stronger than between most other predictor variables and crashes or logarithm of crashes. Based on results obtained, it can be concluded that maintaining pavement macrotexture greater than or equal to 1.524 mm (0.06 in.) as a threshold limit would possibly reduce crashes and provide safe transportation to road users on highways.

  12. Comparison of four statistical and machine learning methods for crash severity prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh; Khattak, Aemal

    2017-11-01

    Crash severity prediction models enable different agencies to predict the severity of a reported crash with unknown severity or the severity of crashes that may be expected to occur sometime in the future. This paper had three main objectives: comparison of the performance of four statistical and machine learning methods including Multinomial Logit (MNL), Nearest Neighbor Classification (NNC), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests (RF), in predicting traffic crash severity; developing a crash costs-based approach for comparison of crash severity prediction methods; and investigating the effects of data clustering methods comprising K-means Clustering (KC) and Latent Class Clustering (LCC), on the performance of crash severity prediction models. The 2012-2015 reported crash data from Nebraska, United States was obtained and two-vehicle crashes were extracted as the analysis data. The dataset was split into training/estimation (2012-2014) and validation (2015) subsets. The four prediction methods were trained/estimated using the training/estimation dataset and the correct prediction rates for each crash severity level, overall correct prediction rate and a proposed crash costs-based accuracy measure were obtained for the validation dataset. The correct prediction rates and the proposed approach showed NNC had the best prediction performance in overall and in more severe crashes. RF and SVM had the next two sufficient performances and MNL was the weakest method. Data clustering did not affect the prediction results of SVM, but KC improved the prediction performance of MNL, NNC and RF, while LCC caused improvement in MNL and RF but weakened the performance of NNC. Overall correct prediction rate had almost the exact opposite results compared to the proposed approach, showing that neglecting the crash costs can lead to misjudgment in choosing the right prediction method. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Investigation of time and weather effects on crash types using full Bayesian multivariate Poisson lognormal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Basyouny, Karim; Barua, Sudip; Islam, Md Tazul

    2014-12-01

    Previous research shows that various weather elements have significant effects on crash occurrence and risk; however, little is known about how these elements affect different crash types. Consequently, this study investigates the impact of weather elements and sudden extreme snow or rain weather changes on crash type. Multivariate models were used for seven crash types using five years of daily weather and crash data collected for the entire City of Edmonton. In addition, the yearly trend and random variation of parameters across the years were analyzed by using four different modeling formulations. The proposed models were estimated in a full Bayesian context via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The multivariate Poisson lognormal model with yearly varying coefficients provided the best fit for the data according to Deviance Information Criteria. Overall, results showed that temperature and snowfall were statistically significant with intuitive signs (crashes decrease with increasing temperature; crashes increase as snowfall intensity increases) for all crash types, while rainfall was mostly insignificant. Previous snow showed mixed results, being statistically significant and positively related to certain crash types, while negatively related or insignificant in other cases. Maximum wind gust speed was found mostly insignificant with a few exceptions that were positively related to crash type. Major snow or rain events following a dry weather condition were highly significant and positively related to three crash types: Follow-Too-Close, Stop-Sign-Violation, and Ran-Off-Road crashes. The day-of-the-week dummy variables were statistically significant, indicating a possible weekly variation in exposure. Transportation authorities might use the above results to improve road safety by providing drivers with information regarding the risk of certain crash types for a particular weather condition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Threats to financial system security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McGovern, D.E.

    1997-06-01

    The financial system in the United States is slowly migrating from the bricks and mortar of banks on the city square to branch banks, ATM`s, and now direct linkage through computers to the home. Much work has been devoted to the security problems inherent in protecting property and people. The impact of attacks on the information aspects of the financial system has, however, received less attention. Awareness is raised through publicized events such as the junk bond fraud perpetrated by Milken or gross mismanagement in the failure of the Barings Bank through unsupervised trading activities by Leeson in Singapore. These events, although seemingly large (financial losses may be on the order of several billion dollars), are but small contributors to the estimated $114 billion loss to all types of financial fraud in 1993. Most of the losses can be traced to the contribution of many small attacks perpetrated against a variety of vulnerable components and systems. This paper explores the magnitude of these financial system losses and identifies new areas for security to be applied to high consequence events.

  15. Analysing the Severity and Frequency of Traffic Crashes in Riyadh City Using Statistical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saleh Altwaijri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Traffic crashes in Riyadh city cause losses in the form of deaths, injuries and property damages, in addition to the pain and social tragedy affecting families of the victims. In 2005, there were a total of 47,341 injury traffic crashes occurred in Riyadh city (19% of the total KSA crashes and 9% of those crashes were severe. Road safety in Riyadh city may have been adversely affected by: high car ownership, migration of people to Riyadh city, high daily trips reached about 6 million, high rate of income, low-cost of petrol, drivers from different nationalities, young drivers and tremendous growth in population which creates a high level of mobility and transport activities in the city. The primary objective of this paper is therefore to explore factors affecting the severity and frequency of road crashes in Riyadh city using appropriate statistical models aiming to establish effective safety policies ready to be implemented to reduce the severity and frequency of road crashes in Riyadh city. Crash data for Riyadh city were collected from the Higher Commission for the Development of Riyadh (HCDR for a period of five years from 1425H to 1429H (roughly corresponding to 2004-2008. Crash data were classified into three categories: fatal, serious-injury and slight-injury. Two nominal response models have been developed: a standard multinomial logit model (MNL and a mixed logit model to injury-related crash data. Due to a severe underreporting problem on the slight injury crashes binary and mixed binary logistic regression models were also estimated for two categories of severity: fatal and serious crashes. For frequency, two count models such as Negative Binomial (NB models were employed and the unit of analysis was 168 HAIs (wards in Riyadh city. Ward-level crash data are disaggregated by severity of the crash (such as fatal and serious injury crashes. The results from both multinomial and binary response models are found to be fairly consistent but

  16. Materiality in Financial Audit

    OpenAIRE

    Adriana Claudia GHIMIS

    2012-01-01

    The financial audit aims toward increasing the credibility of financial informaiton. The purpose of the paper is to outline the most important topics regarding the definition and application of significance limit.

  17. CMS Financial Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This section contains the annual CMS financial statements as required under the Chief Financial Officers (CFO) Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-576). The CFO Act marked a major...

  18. Financial Key Ratios

    OpenAIRE

    Tănase Alin-Eliodor

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on computing techniques starting from trial balance data regarding financial key ratios. There are presented activity, liquidity, solvency and profitability financial key ratios. It is presented a computing methodology in three steps based on a trial balance.

  19. Quarterly Financial Report

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    acray

    2011-06-30

    Jun 30, 2011 ... 2 IDRC QUARTERLY FINANCIAL REPORT JUNE 2011. Consolidated .... spending on capacity-building projects as well as to management's decision to restrict capacity- building ...... The investments in financial institutions.

  20. Financial Integrity Benchmarks

    Data.gov (United States)

    City of Jackson, Mississippi — This data compiles standard financial integrity benchmarks that allow the City to measure its financial standing. It measure the City's debt ratio and bond ratings....

  1. INNOVATIONS IN FINANCIAL ANALYTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. V. Teplova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper as the main feature of innovation in the financial health of a company analyst view the shift to two circuits of key interests of owners of capital (financial stakeholders. Justifi ed by differences key financial systems within the contour ownership interest and the lender three projections: liquidity, the current economic efficiency and growth. In the paper as the main feature of the innovation in the analysis of the financial health of a company is considered a transition to the two circuits of the interests of the key owners of financial capital (financial stakeholders. Justifi ed differences of key financial indicator systems in the framework of the outline of the interests of the owner and the lender by three projections: liquidity, efficiency and the quality of growth. The examples of Russian companies have different interpretations of financial targets and indicators with a choice of activities.

  2. Preventing Financial Crime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boll, Karen

    This paper investigates the Swedish tax authority’s (Skatteverkets) compliance initiative called Preventing Financial Crime. In Sweden tax evasion related to organised moon-lighting is defined as a major risk to the revenue collection and to the legitimacy of Skatteverket. The traditional approach...... on this, the paper shows that the Swedish tax officials seek to motivate large construction contractors and municipalities to take preventive measures in relation to their sub-contractors to avoid and abate tax evasion. The paper shows the challenges in engaging and involving these external stakeholders...... has implications for how tax authorities (and other state authorities) reform their coercive regulation. If they decide to pursue a voluntary based approach where the actions of external partners play a central role, then the analysis helps to show some of the implied challenges and potentials....

  3. Financial Services Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    www.investopedia.com/features/industryhandbook/banking.asp Mishkin , F. & Eakins, S. (2003). Financial Markets + Institutions (4th ed.). Boston...purposes, participants interact in financial markets for securities, bonds, futures and options, utilizing financial intermediaries such as retail and...nations. U.S. participants, likewise, may also choose to participate in foreign financial institutions in order to gain access to or operate in

  4. Sir Hugh Cairns: The neurosurgeon who introduced crash helmets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahsivadhanan Sundaravadhanan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistics prove that more Indians die in Road traffic related accidents than in wars. Prior to World War II, the death toll across the world used to be very high. It was at this juncture that a Military Neurosurgeon named Hugh Cairns introduced the compulsory wearing of crash helmets and brought about a reduction in mortality by more than 50%. Within a decade of introduction of crash helmets in Britain, the entire world followed suit. The results of his efforts are here for all of us to see. This innovative military neurosurgeon is credited as the one who introduced the concept of mobile neurosurgical units during world war and also the first proponent of usage of penicillin in war. His concepts in war surgery are still followed by militaries across the world. This article comes as a tribute to this great Neurosurgeon who helped in saving millions of lives.

  5. Thermal characterization of QSH crashes in RFX-mod

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fassina, Alessandro; Gobbin, Marco; Franz, Paolo; Marrelli, Lionello; Ruzzon, Alberto

    2012-10-01

    QSH (Quasi Single Helicity) states have gained a growing interest in RFP research since they show improved confinement and transport features with respect to standard discharges. However, ITBs associated with QSH states can be obtained only in a transient way, and in general with a shorter lifetime with respect to that of the QSH phase [1]. In this work the analysis has essentially the purpose of confirming, with TS data, the Te dynamics seen with the double filter, multichord SXR spectrometer in [1]: TS data allow a better spatial definition of temperature profile and a more reliable description of plasma edge. Te profile features in rising and crashing phases are determined via ensemble averaging, possible precursors of thermal crashes are identified, while q(r) behavior is studied identifying the thermal structures associated with rational surfaces. [4pt] [1] Ruzzon et al, 39th EPS Conference, P2.023

  6. Relationship of Worldwide Rocket Launch Crashes with Geophysical Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Romanova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A statistical comparison of launch crashes at different worldwide space ports with geophysical factors has been performed. A comprehensive database has been compiled, which includes 50 years of information from the beginning of the space age in 1957 about launch crashes occurring world-wide. Special attention has been paid to statistics concerning launches at the largest space ports: Plesetsk, Baikonur, Cape Canaveral, and Vandenberg. In search of a possible influence of geophysical factors on launch failures, such parameters as the vehicle type, local time, season, sunspot number, high-energy electron fluxes, and solar proton events have been examined. Also, we have analyzed correlations with the geomagnetic indices as indirect indicators of the space weather condition. Regularities found in this study suggest that further detailed studies of space weather effects on launcher systems, especially in the high-latitude regions, should be performed.

  7. Evaluating the police service quality for handling traffic crash reporting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær; Kaplan, Sigal; Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    2017-01-01

    at the police service quality for handling the reporting of traffic crashes. Design/methodology/approach This study introduces a novel approach to evaluate service quality that combines multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with latent class analysis (LCA). Moreover, this study presents the design of a web....../value This study advances the knowledge about police service quality with a novel expert-based decision support tool based on SERVQUAL, MCDA and LCA, demonstrates its applicability in countries with a high-police service, and opportunities and barriers for increasing the crash reporting rate....... participated in the survey that yielded 86 complete responses. Findings The novel approach was successfully applied and its implementation demonstrated the usefulness of the tool even in countries with a high police service. Results showed that the participating stakeholders perceived human factors as more...

  8. Response of equipment in nuclear power plants to airplane crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schalk, M.; Woelfel, H.

    1976-01-01

    Nuclear power plants in Germany are to be designed against airplane crash. Two problems arise: first, the local problem of penetration as well as local destruction of the building and secondly the airplane induced vibrations of the whole building which cause loadings for secondary systems (equipment). This paper deals especially with the second problem. Floor response spectra due to airplane crash are presented for two different power plant buildings. The influence of various parameters (time history of excitation, direction and location of impact, mathematical model, soil, damping, etc.) are discussed. A comparison with the results of earthquake loading is given. Suggestions are made for developing suitable floor design spectra and using them to analyse multidegree-of-freedom systems. However, the paper gives only a partial answer to the questions arising because of some important restrictions which had to be made. Studies concerning these restrictions are still being conducted and will be presented in a separate paper. (Auth.)

  9. Financial Services and the Deployment of Agricultural Innovations in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    As partners of farmers' associations and small agri-businesses, financial cooperatives can play an important role in the adoption of agricultural innovations by providing relevant financial services. This project will test the ability of financial services to support the deployment and large-scale adoption of innovations ...

  10. The usage of financial derivatives in financial risk management by non- financial companies in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Živanović Branko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyse the research results on corporate risk management practices, notably in light of the derivatives use in the large Serbian non-financial companies. The principal aim of this paper is to examine whether Serbian companies employ derivatives to manage risk and to what degree, and to explore the main rationale behind the companies' not employing these instruments, as well as to suggest possible enhancements of risk management practices. Furthermore, we have investigated the key reasons why financial derivatives are very useful for Serbian companies for hedging financial risks. Additionally, this paper provides a comparative overview of the use of derivatives between Serbian companies and the companies in Croatia and Slovenia in order to ascertain whether Serbian companies employ derivatives in order to manage risk to the same degree as their Croatian and Slovenian counterparts. This paper will include findings and provide evidence that FX rate and referent interest rates (such as 1w- 2w repo rate, Beonia and Belibor are markedly volatile, which opens vast possibilities for the use of financial derivatives, given that these financial parameters determine the price of a credit arrangement for companies and the quality of import and export cash flows.

  11. Financial Advice: Who Pays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finke, Michael S.; Huston, Sandra J.; Winchester, Danielle D.

    2011-01-01

    Using a cost-benefit framework for financial planning services and proprietary data collected in the summer of 2008, the client characteristics that are associated with the likelihood of paying for professional financial advice, as well as the type of financial services purchased, are identified. Results indicate that respondents who pay for…

  12. Financial Sector Assessment : Morocco

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank; International Monetary Fund

    2017-01-01

    A joint International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank mission visited Rabat and Casablanca in 2015, to assess the soundness and resilience of the banking system, the state of play in financial inclusion and infrastructure, the oversight frameworks for banking, capital markets and financial market infrastructures, crisis preparedness, and update the findings of the Financial Sector Assessme...

  13. Invest in Financial Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Sarah B.; McGatha, Maggie B.; Bay-Williams, Jennifer M.

    2012-01-01

    The current state of the economy elevates the need to build awareness of financial markets and personal finance among the nation's young people through implementing a financial literacy curriculum in schools. A limited amount of time spent on financial literacy can have a positive effect on students' budgeting skills. This knowledge will only add…

  14. Marketing Financial Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddleston, Thomas, Jr.; Batty, Burt F.

    1978-01-01

    Student financial assistance services are becoming a major part of the institutional marketing plan as traditional college-age students decline in numbers and price competition among institutions increases. The effect of financial aid on enrollment and admissions processes is discussed along with the role of the financial aid officer. (Author/LBH)

  15. Financial Markets and Compliance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Laar, T.A.H.M.; Bleker, Sylvie; Houben, Raf

    2017-01-01

    This chapter will focus on the goals of financial market regulation through the rules of economics, the strategies financial regulation employs to achieve these goals and the insights this provides for the compliance profession. For an overview of the goals and strategies of financial regulation

  16. Essays on financial liberalization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bumann, Silke

    2015-01-01

    This thesis investigates the effect of financial liberalization on economic growth, income inequality and financial instability. Chapter 1 describes aim and scope of the thesis. Chapter 2 provides a meta-analysis of the literature on financial liberalization and economic growth. It is found that

  17. Counterfactual simulations applied to SHRP2 crashes: The effect of driver behavior models on safety benefit estimations of intelligent safety systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bärgman, Jonas; Boda, Christian-Nils; Dozza, Marco

    2017-05-01

    As the development and deployment of in-vehicle intelligent safety systems (ISS) for crash avoidance and mitigation have rapidly increased in the last decades, the need to evaluate their prospective safety benefits before introduction has never been higher. Counterfactual simulations using relevant mathematical models (for vehicle dynamics, sensors, the environment, ISS algorithms, and models of driver behavior) have been identified as having high potential. However, although most of these models are relatively mature, models of driver behavior in the critical seconds before a crash are still relatively immature. There are also large conceptual differences between different driver models. The objective of this paper is, firstly, to demonstrate the importance of the choice of driver model when counterfactual simulations are used to evaluate two ISS: Forward collision warning (FCW), and autonomous emergency braking (AEB). Secondly, the paper demonstrates how counterfactual simulations can be used to perform sensitivity analyses on parameter settings, both for driver behavior and ISS algorithms. Finally, the paper evaluates the effect of the choice of glance distribution in the driver behavior model on the safety benefit estimation. The paper uses pre-crash kinematics and driver behavior from 34 rear-end crashes from the SHRP2 naturalistic driving study for the demonstrations. The results for FCW show a large difference in the percent of avoided crashes between conceptually different models of driver behavior, while differences were small for conceptually similar models. As expected, the choice of model of driver behavior did not affect AEB benefit much. Based on our results, researchers and others who aim to evaluate ISS with the driver in the loop through counterfactual simulations should be sure to make deliberate and well-grounded choices of driver models: the choice of model matters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  19. Speed, speed variation and crash relationships for urban arterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuesong; Zhou, Qingya; Quddus, Mohammed; Fan, Tianxiang; Fang, Shou'en

    2018-04-01

    Speed and speed variation are closely associated with traffic safety. There is, however, a dearth of research on this subject for the case of urban arterials in general, and in the context of developing nations. In downtown Shanghai, the traffic conditions in each direction are very different by time of day, and speed characteristics during peak hours are also greatly different from those during off-peak hours. Considering that traffic demand changes with time and in different directions, arterials in this study were divided into one-way segments by the direction of flow, and time of day was differentiated and controlled for. In terms of data collection, traditional fixed-based methods have been widely used in previous studies, but they fail to capture the spatio-temporal distributions of speed along a road. A new approach is introduced to estimate speed variation by integrating spatio-temporal speed fluctuation of a single vehicle with speed differences between vehicles using taxi-based high frequency GPS data. With this approach, this paper aims to comprehensively establish a relationship between mean speed, speed variation and traffic crashes for the purpose of formulating effective speed management measures, specifically using an urban dataset. From a total of 234 one-way road segments from eight arterials in Shanghai, mean speed, speed variation, geometric design features, traffic volume, and crash data were collected. Because the safety effects of mean speed and speed variation may vary at different segment lengths, arterials with similar signal spacing density were grouped together. To account for potential correlations among these segments, a hierarchical Poisson log-normal model with random effects was developed. Results show that a 1% increase in mean speed on urban arterials was associated with a 0.7% increase in total crashes, and larger speed variation was also associated with increased crash frequency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  20. Aircraft crash survivability from viscous injury in vertical impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Barth, Thomas H.

    2009-01-01

    This research investigated viscous injury from vertical impact loading to determine if it is critical to survivability of aircraft accidents. A unique database was built from autopsy reports and accident investigations combining injury data with the vehicle impact data. Computer models were created and used to assess injury potential. Common design limits and actual crash data from full scale research experiments were used as inputs. The results were analyzed according to publi...