Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzelli, Claudia; Vandecasteele, Ine; Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo; Mari i Rivero, Ines; Pelletier, Nathan; Batelaan, Okke; Lavalle, Carlo

2015-01-01

Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact. -- Highlights: •A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. •The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. •Of land used for industrial purposes, 7–12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. •If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. •The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact

Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hongqing; Steyer, Gregory D.; Couvillion, Brady R.; John M. Rybczyk,; Beck, Holly J.; William J. Sleavin,; Ehab A. Meselhe,; Mead A. Allison,; Ronald G. Boustany,; Craig J. Fischenich,; Victor H. Rivera-Monroy,

2014-01-01

Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km2) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions ( 1,500 m3 s-1) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

Science.gov (United States)

Payne, J. F.

2016-12-01

Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

Maps From Mud—Using the Multiple Scenario Approach to Reconstruct Land Cover Dynamics From Pollen Records: A Case Study of Two Neolithic Landscapes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Jane Bunting

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Pollen records contain a wide range of information about past land cover, but translation from the pollen diagram to other formats remains a challenge. In this paper, we present LandPolFlow, a software package enabling Multiple Scenario Approach (MSA based land cover reconstruction from pollen records for specific landscapes. It has two components: a basic Geographic Information System which takes grids of landscape constraints (e.g., topography, geology and generates possible “scenarios” of past land cover using a combination of probabilistic and deterministic placement rules to distribute defined plant communities within the landscape, and a pollen dispersal and deposition model which simulates pollen loading at specified points within each scenario and compares that statistically with actual pollen assemblages from the same location. Goodness of fit statistics from multiple pollen site locations are used to identify which scenarios are likely reconstructions of past land cover. We apply this approach to two case studies of Neolithisation in Britain, the first from the Somerset Levels and Moors and the second from Mainland, Orkney. Both landscapes contain significant evidence of Neolithic activity, but present contrasting contexts. In Somerset, wet-preserved Neolithic remains such as trackways are abundant, but little dry land settlement archaeology is known, and the pre-Neolithic landscape was extensively wooded. In Orkney, the Neolithic archaeology includes domestic and monumental stone-built structures forming a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and the pre-Neolithic landscape was largely treeless. Existing pollen records were collated from both landscapes and correlated within new chronological frameworks (presented elsewhere. This allowed pollen data to be grouped into 200 year periods, or “timeslices,” for reconstruction of land cover through time using the MSA. Reconstruction suggests that subtle but clear and persistent impacts of

Age-dependent decay in the landscape

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winitzki, Sergei

2008-01-01

The picture of the 'multiverse' arising in diverse cosmological scenarios involves transitions between metastable vacuum states. It was pointed out by Krauss and Dent that the transition rates decrease at very late times, leading to a dependence of the transition probability between vacua on the age of each vacuum region. I investigate the implications of this non-Markovian, age-dependent decay on the global structure of the spacetime in landscape scenarios. I show that the fractal dimension of the eternally inflating domain is precisely equal to 3, instead of being slightly below 3, which is the case in scenarios with purely Markovian, age-independent decay. I develop a complete description of a non-Markovian landscape in terms of a nonlocal master equation. Using this description I demonstrate by an explicit calculation that, under some technical assumptions about the landscape, the probabilistic predictions of our position in the landscape are essentially unchanged, regardless of the measure used to extract these predictions. I briefly discuss the physical plausibility of realizing non-Markovian vacuum decay in cosmology in view of the possible decoherence of the metastable quantum state.

Dry forest resilience varies under simulated climate‐management scenarios in a central Oregon, USA landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Halofsky, Joshua S; Halofsky, Jessica E; Burcsu, Theresa; Hemstrom, Miles A

Determining appropriate actions to create or maintain landscapes resilient to climate change is challenging because of uncertainty associated with potential effects of climate change and their interactions with land management. We used a set of climate-informed state-and-transition models to explore the effects of management and natural disturbances on vegetation composition and structure under different future climates. Models were run for dry forests of central Oregon under a fire suppression scenario (i.e., no management other than the continued suppression of wildfires) and an active management scenario characterized by light to moderate thinning from below and some prescribed fire, planting, and salvage logging. Without climate change, area in dry province forest types remained constant. With climate change, dry mixed-conifer forests increased in area (by an average of 21–26% by 2100), and moist mixed-conifer forests decreased in area (by an average of 36–60% by 2100), under both management scenarios. Average area in dry mixed-conifer forests varied little by management scenario, but potential decreases in the moist mixed-conifer forest were lower with active management. With changing climate in the dry province of central Oregon, our results suggest the likelihood of sustaining current levels of dense, moist mixed-conifer forests with large-diameter, old trees is low (less than a 10% chance) irrespective of management scenario; an opposite trend was observed under no climate change simulations. However, results also suggest active management within the dry and moist mixed-conifer forests that creates less dense forest conditions can increase the persistence of larger-diameter, older trees across the landscape. Owing to projected increases in wildfire, our results also suggest future distributions of tree structures will differ from the present. Overall, our projections indicate proactive management can increase forest resilience and sustain some societal

Electric Vehicles Scenarios and a Roadmap for India

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal

This report is an attempt to look at the present EV landscape, recent developments in EV markets and the emergent EV technology research. The report analyses future scenarios of passenger transport in India with a specific focus on the role of EVs. The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035 and are ana...

Stakeholder and expert-guided scenarios for agriculture and landscape development in a groundwater proction area

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vejre, Henrik; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Kristensen, Lone Søderkvist

2011-01-01

Nitrate and pesticide leaching led to the designation of groundwater protection zones in Denmark. The protective measures in these zones often clash with local interests in agriculture. Scenarios were used to evaluate the development of a groundwater protection zone in a farming area. Stakeholders...

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Mörtberg, U M; Balfors, B; Knol, W C

2007-03-01

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

Applying Landscape Science to Natural Resource Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guy M. Robinson

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This is the introduction to the Ecology and Society special feature on "Applying Landscape Science to Natural Resource Management". Primarily drawing upon examples from Australia, the nine papers in the feature illustrate how landscape science seeks to integrate information from diverse sources to generate management solutions for implementation by individual land managers, communities, and governments at different levels. This introduction refers to the genesis of the feature, briefly outlines the nature and content of landscape science, and then summarizes key features of the nine papers. These are organized into two sections: one deals with inputs from human agents in the landscape, and one with the development of models enabling different management scenarios and environmental changes to be envisaged, understood, and applied to policy development.

Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shawn R. Francis

2011-12-01

We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

[Landscape classification: research progress and development trend].

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Fa-Chao; Liu, Li-Ming

2011-06-01

Landscape classification is the basis of the researches on landscape structure, process, and function, and also, the prerequisite for landscape evaluation, planning, protection, and management, directly affecting the precision and practicability of landscape research. This paper reviewed the research progress on the landscape classification system, theory, and methodology, and summarized the key problems and deficiencies of current researches. Some major landscape classification systems, e. g. , LANMAP and MUFIC, were introduced and discussed. It was suggested that a qualitative and quantitative comprehensive classification based on the ideology of functional structure shape and on the integral consideration of landscape classification utility, landscape function, landscape structure, physiogeographical factors, and human disturbance intensity should be the major research directions in the future. The integration of mapping, 3S technology, quantitative mathematics modeling, computer artificial intelligence, and professional knowledge to enhance the precision of landscape classification would be the key issues and the development trend in the researches of landscape classification.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer K. Costanza

2015-03-01

Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Generic Regional Development Strategies from Local Stakeholders' Scenarios - an Alpine Village Experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolfgang Loibl

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the participatory elaboration of strategies for sustainable regional development in an Alpine tourist region in Austria to cope with global change effects evolving locally, considering climate change, economic change as well as (local societal change. Local stakeholders in an Alpine village in the Montafon region contributed in workshops to achieve the final results: participant teams conducted system analyses of the regional system to explore key elements of the region. Narrative scenarios described possible positive and negative development trends and indicated the critical issues controlling future development; 3D-images of landscape transition simulations show the consequences of certain development directions. Alternative development directions supported the local stakeholders to elaborate regional development strategies. In the end, the scientist team derived generic strategies for Alpine regions based on the locally developed strategy bundle. The article presents the intention, progress and outcome of the participatory approach and elaborates the potential to derive generic strategies from local ones and discusses the possibly occurring conflicts regarding cross-scale transfers of these local strategies. Overall, tourism was seen as a key element for future regional development, which can on the one hand derogate Alpine regions and is on the other hand threatened by climate change and diminution of landscape attractiveness. The suggested development strategies will help to cope with global change issues mitigating the negative consequences on the local society and environment.

A simulation method for the stability analysis of landscape scenarios by using a NetLogo application in GIS environment

Science.gov (United States)

Gobattoni, Federica; Lauro, Giuliana; Leone, Antonio; Monaco, Roberto; Pelorosso, Raffaele

2010-05-01

Landscape continually evolves under the influence of a complex and broad range of natural processes, directly or indirectly determined by land use, but also under the impact of anthropic actions of planning and territorial management. While processes such as earthquakes, landslides, and so on, are manifestations of this evolutionary process, human decisions concerning land government (cropping, urbanization etc.) may affect dramatically the landscape evolution in a complex mechanism of cause-and-effect leading to accelerated erosion phenomena, hydro-geological instability and flood events. To better understand landscape evolution and change in time, several numerical and empirical models have been developed and implemented with the aim to explore and explain such complex processes; reproducing landscape evolution through models and schematic representation of reality could be a powerful and reliable tool for natural resources planning and decision making in land management. Even understanding interactions and relations between the involved variables, predicting how the system will react to external inputs such as political, social or economic constraints, could be strongly difficult. Decision support systems could help in choosing among possible alternatives by integrating different sources of information and "What if" scenarios could be developed as possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions (Mahmoud M. wt al., 2009). Modelling approaches can be successfully applied to describe and assess both the natural spatial environmental variability and the anthropic impacts at different temporal and spatial scales even if they usually takes into account each aspect of the environmental system separately and without looking directly at landscape as a unique system and without understanding its intrinsic evolution mechanisms (H. Siegrist, 2002, S. Demberel, 2003, A. Brenner, 2005). GIS-based models which

Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

How Landscape Ecology Can Promote the Development of Sustainable Landscapes in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, Jesper; Antrop, Marc; Ramos, Isabel Loupa

2013-01-01

related concepts. International cooperation demands a certain harmonization of these concepts for better mutual understanding. The 2000 European Landscape Convention provided an important momentum to rethink research, policy and management of landscapes from the perspective of sustainable development...

Landscaping practices, land use patterns and stormwater quantity and quality in urban watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, B.; Band, L. E.

2011-12-01

Increasing quantity and decreasing quality of urban stormwater threatens biodiversity in local streams and reservoirs, jeopardizes water supplies, and ultimately contributes to estuarine eutrophication. To estimate the effects that present and alternative landscaping practices and land use patterns may have on urban stormwater quantity and quality, simulations of existing land use/land cover using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), a process-based surface hydrology and biogeochemistry model, were developed for watersheds in Baltimore, MD (as part of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) NSF Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site) and Durham, NC (as part of the NSF Urban Long-Term Research Area (ULTRA) program). The influence of land use patterns and landscaping practices on nutrient export in urban watersheds has been explored as part of the BES; this work has focused on improving our understanding of how residential landscaping practices (i.e. lawn fertilization rates) vary across land use and socioeconomic gradients. Elsewhere, others have explored the political ecology of residential landscaping practices - seeking to understand the economic, political, and cultural influences on the practice of high-input residential turf-grass management. Going forward, my research will synthesize and extend this prior work. Rather than pre-supposing predominant residential land use patterns and landscaping practices (i.e. lower-density periphery development incorporating high-input turf landscapes) alternate land use and landscaping scenarios (e.g. higher-density/transit-oriented development, rain gardens, vegetable gardens, native plant/xeriscaping) will be developed through interviews/focus groups with stakeholders (citizens, public officials, developers, non-profits). These scenarios will then be applied to the RHESSys models already developed for catchments in Baltimore and Durham. The modeled scenario results will be used to identify alternate land

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindborg, T; Thorne, M; Andersson, E; Becker, J; Brandefelt, J; Cabianca, T; Gunia, M; Ikonen, A T K; Johansson, E; Kangasniemi, V; Kautsky, U; Kirchner, G; Klos, R; Kowe, R; Kontula, A; Kupiainen, P; Lahdenperä, A-M; Lord, N S; Lunt, D J; Näslund, J-O; Nordén, M; Norris, S; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Proverbio, A; Riekki, K; Rübel, A; Sweeck, L; Walke, R; Xu, S; Smith, G; Pröhl, G

2018-03-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but

Landscape function analysis as a base of rural development strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filepné Kovács Krisztina

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Research on ecosystem services and landscape functions are highly important in landscape ecology, landscape planning and open space design. The terms of ecosystem service and landscape function have been evolved parallel to each other in the scientific literature but have different focus. The term of landscape functions evolved from the scientific field of landscape ecology; it reflects the goods and services provided by regions, landscapes where the cultural, economic factors are important as well. As a framework assessment method with additional economic assessment, a landscape function analysis could be an additional tool of rural development, as it gives a complex analysis of multiple aspects, thus it is highly appropriate to explore, analyze the potentials, resources and limits of landscapes and land use systems. In the current research a landscape function analysis was compared with the rural development strategies in Hungarian micro-regions. We focused on the level of landscape functions and the objectives of the rural development strategies of the study areas. The local development strategies do not focus on territorial differences nor potentials evolving from natural, cultural resources or local constrains. The only exception is tourism development, where in some cases there is a holistic spatial approach which intends to develop the region as a whole.

Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

2017-04-01

The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the

Urban landscape architecture design under the view of sustainable development

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, WeiLin

2017-08-01

The concept of sustainable development in modern city landscape design advocates landscape architecture, which is the main development direction in the field of landscape design. They are also effective measures to promote the sustainable development of city garden. Based on this, combined with the connotation of sustainable development and sustainable design, this paper analyzes and discusses the design of urban landscape under the concept of sustainable development.

Landscape structure and management alter the outcome of a pesticide ERA: Evaluating impacts of endocrine disruption using the ALMaSS European Brown Hare model.

Science.gov (United States)

Topping, Chris J; Dalby, Lars; Skov, Flemming

2016-01-15

There is a gradual change towards explicitly considering landscapes in regulatory risk assessment. To realise the objective of developing representative scenarios for risk assessment it is necessary to know how detailed a landscape representation is needed to generate a realistic risk assessment, and indeed how to generate such landscapes. This paper evaluates the contribution of landscape and farming components to a model based risk assessment of a fictitious endocrine disruptor on hares. In addition, we present methods and code examples for generation of landscape structures and farming simulation from data collected primarily for EU agricultural subsidy support and GIS map data. Ten different Danish landscapes were generated and the ERA carried out for each landscape using two different assumed toxicities. The results showed negative impacts in all cases, but the extent and form in terms of impacts on abundance or occupancy differed greatly between landscapes. A meta-model was created, predicting impact from landscape and farming characteristics. Scenarios based on all combinations of farming and landscape for five landscapes representing extreme and middle impacts were created. The meta-models developed from the 10 real landscapes failed to predict impacts for these 25 scenarios. Landscape, farming, and the emergent density of hares all influenced the results of the risk assessment considerably. The study indicates that prediction of a reasonable worst case scenario is difficult from structural, farming or population metrics; rather the emergent properties generated from interactions between landscape, management and ecology are needed. Meta-modelling may also fail to predict impacts, even when restricting inputs to combinations of those used to create the model. Future ERA may therefore need to make use of multiple scenarios representing a wide range of conditions to avoid locally unacceptable risks. This approach could now be feasible Europe wide given the

VIRTUAL MUSEUMS FOR LANDSCAPE VALORIZATION AND COMMUNICATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Pietroni

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Research in the domain of landscape virtual reconstructions has been mainly focused on digitization and recording inside GIS systems, or real time visualization, paying a minor attention to the development of a methodological approach for the landscape narration, combing different registers, conceptual, emotional incitements and, thus, able to arouse in the public a feeling of emotional “sensing” and self- identification. The landscape reflects also the human activities in the territory and the communities’ cultural patterns, their sense of “belonging”. In a virtual museum of landscapes, the multidisciplinary approach, the multiplication of perspectives and voices, storytelling, acquire primary importance. A Virtual Museum of landscapes should integrate both holistic and delimited visions. The holistic vision requires a diachronic approach, including both present and past phases of life. On the other side, delimited, or “monographic”, representations are useful to go deeper into specific and exemplar stories, regarding specific groups of people. Beside, the emergence of new social media enhancing cultural interactions among people induce the creation of specific social platforms for Cultural Heritage for the active participation of a large number of stakeholders. Co-creation scenarios and tools can be particularly promising. Aton is an example of front-end VR social platform in the web end, for the efficient streaming of medium/large landscape, their exploration and characterization. The Tiber Valley Virtual Museum is an example of sensorial cultural landscape. Starting from the acquisition of topographical data through integrated technologies, several multi-sensory scenarios have been created, inside which visitors can feel embodied and involved.

Virtual Museums for Landscape Valorization and Communication

Science.gov (United States)

Pietroni, E.

2017-08-01

Research in the domain of landscape virtual reconstructions has been mainly focused on digitization and recording inside GIS systems, or real time visualization, paying a minor attention to the development of a methodological approach for the landscape narration, combing different registers, conceptual, emotional incitements and, thus, able to arouse in the public a feeling of emotional "sensing" and self- identification. The landscape reflects also the human activities in the territory and the communities' cultural patterns, their sense of "belonging". In a virtual museum of landscapes, the multidisciplinary approach, the multiplication of perspectives and voices, storytelling, acquire primary importance. A Virtual Museum of landscapes should integrate both holistic and delimited visions. The holistic vision requires a diachronic approach, including both present and past phases of life. On the other side, delimited, or "monographic", representations are useful to go deeper into specific and exemplar stories, regarding specific groups of people. Beside, the emergence of new social media enhancing cultural interactions among people induce the creation of specific social platforms for Cultural Heritage for the active participation of a large number of stakeholders. Co-creation scenarios and tools can be particularly promising. Aton is an example of front-end VR social platform in the web end, for the efficient streaming of medium/large landscape, their exploration and characterization. The Tiber Valley Virtual Museum is an example of sensorial cultural landscape. Starting from the acquisition of topographical data through integrated technologies, several multi-sensory scenarios have been created, inside which visitors can feel embodied and involved.

Landscape genetics as a tool for conservation planning: predicting the effects of landscape change on gene flow.

Science.gov (United States)

van Strien, Maarten J; Keller, Daniela; Holderegger, Rolf; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Kienast, Felix; Bolliger, Janine

2014-03-01

For conservation managers, it is important to know whether landscape changes lead to increasing or decreasing gene flow. Although the discipline of landscape genetics assesses the influence of landscape elements on gene flow, no studies have yet used landscape-genetic models to predict gene flow resulting from landscape change. A species that has already been severely affected by landscape change is the large marsh grasshopper (Stethophyma grossum), which inhabits moist areas in fragmented agricultural landscapes in Switzerland. From transects drawn between all population pairs within maximum dispersal distance (landscape composition as well as some measures of habitat configuration. Additionally, a complete sampling of all populations in our study area allowed incorporating measures of population topology. These measures together with the landscape metrics formed the predictor variables in linear models with gene flow as response variable (F(ST) and mean pairwise assignment probability). With a modified leave-one-out cross-validation approach, we selected the model with the highest predictive accuracy. With this model, we predicted gene flow under several landscape-change scenarios, which simulated construction, rezoning or restoration projects, and the establishment of a new population. For some landscape-change scenarios, significant increase or decrease in gene flow was predicted, while for others little change was forecast. Furthermore, we found that the measures of population topology strongly increase model fit in landscape genetic analysis. This study demonstrates the use of predictive landscape-genetic models in conservation and landscape planning.

Landscape structure and management alter the outcome of a pesticide ERA: evaluating impacts of endocrine disruption using the ALMaSS European Brown Hare model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Topping, Christopher John; Dalby, Lars; Skov, Flemming

2016-01-01

from data collected primarily for EU agricultural subsidy support and GIS map data. Ten different Danish landscapes were generated and the ERA carried out for each landscape using two different assumed toxicities. The results showed negative impacts in all cases, but the extent and form in terms...... of impacts on abundance or occupancy differed greatly between landscapes. A meta-model was created, predicting impact from landscape and farming characteristics. Scenarios based on all combinations of farming and landscape for five landscapes representing extreme and middle impacts were created. The meta......-models developed from the 10 real landscapes failed to predict impacts for these 25 scenarios. Landscape, farming, and the emergent density of hares all influenced the results of the risk assessment considerably. The study indicates that prediction of a reasonable worst case scenario is difficult from structural...

The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

2013-01-01

After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

Brook trout distributional response to unconventional oil and gas development: Landscape context matters

Science.gov (United States)

Merriam, Eric R.; Petty, J. Todd; Maloney, Kelly O.; Young, John A.; Faulkner, Stephen; Slonecker, Terry; Milheim, Lesley E.; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Niles, Jonathan M.

2018-01-01

We conducted a large-scale assessment of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development effects on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution. We compiled 2231 brook trout collection records from the Upper Susquehanna River Watershed, USA. We used boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis to predict occurrence probability at the 1:24,000 stream-segment scale as a function of natural and anthropogenic landscape and climatic attributes. We then evaluated the importance of landscape context (i.e., pre-existing natural habitat quality and anthropogenic degradation) in modulating the effects of UOG on brook trout distribution under UOG development scenarios. BRT made use of 5 anthropogenic (28% relative influence) and 7 natural (72% relative influence) variables to model occurrence with a high degree of accuracy [Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) = 0.85 and cross-validated AUC = 0.81]. UOG development impacted 11% (n = 2784) of streams and resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 126 (4%). Most streams impacted by UOG had unsuitable underlying natural habitat quality (n = 1220; 44%). Brook trout were predicted to be absent from an additional 26% (n = 733) of streams due to pre-existing non-UOG land uses (i.e., agriculture, residential and commercial development, or historic mining). Streams with a predicted and observed (via existing pre- and post-disturbance fish sampling records) loss of occurrence due to UOG tended to have intermediate natural habitat quality and/or intermediate levels of non-UOG stress. Simulated development of permitted but undeveloped UOG wells (n = 943) resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 27 additional streams. Loss of occurrence was strongly dependent upon landscape context, suggesting effects of current and future UOG development are likely most relevant in streams near the probability threshold due to pre-existing habitat degradation.

Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Geary

Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

2017-01-01

Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

Navigating the Interface Between Landscape Genetics and Landscape Genomics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Storfer

2018-03-01

' phylogeographic history. To this end, we summarize recent simulation studies that test the power and accuracy of genome scan methods under a variety of demographic scenarios and sampling designs. We conclude with a discussion of additional considerations for future method development, and a summary of methods that show promise for landscape genomics studies but are not yet widely used.

Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2003-01-01

Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

Exploring Accessibility Scenarios for 2020 in Relation with Future ICT Trends on Assistive Technology and Accessibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adamantios Koumpis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we are going to present a set of 5 future scenarios that were developed within the eAccessibility2020 study. The study aims to explore and analyse the referred relationships between the emerging ICT landscape, in the societal and economic context and the development and provision of assistive technologies (AT and e-Accessibility, within a perspective of 10 years. The scenarios were developed after an initial trend analysis that the study team conducted based on data gathering. The scenarios were developed based on a methodology which defined a set of guides for scenario development and a set of visions for the future of eAccessibility.

Landscape Ecological Analysis and Assessment in an Urbanising Environment - forest birds as biodiversity indicators

OpenAIRE

Mörtberg, Ulla

2004-01-01

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts onbiodiversity of urbanisation, infrastructure, land use changesand other developments must be considered on a landscape andregional scale. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptualframework for the assessment of consequences of long-termdevelopment processes like urbanisation on biodiversity on alandscape scale, and for evaluating the impacts of alternativeplanning scenarios. The aim of this study was to explore theeffects of habitat quality, qu...

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

Landscape architecture as an entity of property development in Wilayah Persekutuan, Putrajaya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Nasyution bin Abdul Razak

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This study explores the relationship between landscape architecture and property development. Landscape architecture emphasizes the nature of conservation, development of public parks, city parks, local parks, artificial forests, lakes, recreational areas, outdoor recreation centers, open space systems and other components of landscape architecture in providing opportunities and benefits for real estate development. Backed by ample literature review, this study reveals the significant relationship between land, real estate and landscape architecture. Landscape architecture which provides an open park and green space can be expanded to benefit the social, environment and economy through optimal used of space in property development project. Hence, this study discusses the objectives which are to determine significant factors in the development of landscape architecture, to identify the importance of landscape architecture in real estate development, and to assess the relationship between landscape architecture and property development land. This study involved 50 respondents from renowned developers; Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Bhd (PJH, Selangor State Development Corporation (PKNS, the local authority; Putrajaya Corporation (PPJ, Kajang Municipal Council (MPKj, relevant agencies; Valuation and Property Services Department-JPPH (Ministry of Finance, Department of Town and Country Planning (Peninsular Malaysia, developers registered with ReHDA and residents / property owners in the study area. To conclude, this study offers adequate benefits to policy makers, also relevant agencies such as the local authorities, landowners, property developers, the relevant professionals and communities on the positive effects and significant relationships between landscape architecture and property development.

From Forest Landscape to Agricultural Landscape in the Developing Tropical Country of Malaysia: Pattern, Process, and Their Significance on Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, Saiful Arif; Hezri, Adnan A.

2008-11-01

Agricultural expansion and deforestation are spatial processes of land transformation that impact on landscape pattern. In peninsular Malaysia, the conversion of forested areas into two major cash crops—rubber and oil palm plantations—has been identified as driving significant environmental change. To date, there has been insufficient literature studying the link between changes in landscape patterns and land-related development policies. Therefore, this paper examines: (i) the links between development policies and changes in land use/land cover and landscape pattern and (ii) the significance and implications of these links for future development policies. The objective is to generate insights on the changing process of land use/land cover and landscape pattern as a functional response to development policies and their consequences for environmental conditions. Over the last century, the development of cash crops has changed the country from one dominated by natural landscapes to one dominated by agricultural landscapes. But the last decade of the century saw urbanization beginning to impact significantly. This process aligned with the establishment of various development policies, from land development for agriculture between the mid 1950s and the 1970s to an emphasis on manufacturing from the 1980s onward. Based on a case study in Selangor, peninsular Malaysia, a model of landscape pattern change is presented. It contains three stages according to the relative importance of rubber (first stage: 1900-1950s), oil palm (second stage: 1960s-1970s), and urban (third stage: 1980s-1990s) development that influenced landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity. The environmental consequences of this change have been depicted through loss of biodiversity, geohazard incidences, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. The spatial ecological information can be useful to development policy formulation, allowing diagnosis of the country’s “health” and sustainability

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas A. Spies

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Landscape impact assessment of wind farm development in Dyfed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blandford, C.; White, S.; Garrad, A.D.; Morgan, C.A.

1992-01-01

Chris Blandford Associates, in association with Garrad Hassan and Partners, was commissioned to carry out a landscape impact assessment of wind turbine development in Dyfed. The study aims to identify those areas in Dyfed where, in terms of landscape impact, local authorities might seek either to exclude or encourage wind turbine development; provide guidelines to assist local authorities in judging the impact of wind turbine developments on the landscape; provide a basis and framework for the preparation of planning policy guidelines for acceptable wind turbine and wind farm developments in Dyfed. The study context reviews current Government energy and planning policies for the encouragement of wind turbine developments, as set out in the ''non-fossil fuel obligation'' and the draft planning policy guidance note for renewable energy published last December. (author)

Bioenergy production and forest landscape change in the southeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Costanza, Jennifer K.; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2016-01-01

Production of woody biomass for bioenergy, whether wood pellets or liquid biofuels, has the potential to cause substantial landscape change and concomitant effects on forest ecosystems, but the landscape effects of alternative production scenarios have not been fully assessed. We simulated landscape change from 2010 to 2050 under five scenarios of woody biomass production for wood pellets and liquid biofuels in North Carolina, in the southeastern United States, a region that is a substantial producer of wood biomass for bioenergy and contains high biodiversity. Modeled scenarios varied biomass feedstocks, incorporating harvest of ‘conventional’ forests, which include naturally regenerating as well as planted forests that exist on the landscape even without bioenergy production, as well as purpose-grown woody crops grown on marginal lands. Results reveal trade-offs among scenarios in terms of overall forest area and the characteristics of the remaining forest in 2050. Meeting demand for biomass from conventional forests resulted in more total forest land compared with a baseline, business-as-usual scenario. However, the remaining forest was composed of more intensively managed forest and less of the bottomland hardwood and longleaf pine habitats that support biodiversity. Converting marginal forest to purpose-grown crops reduced forest area, but the remaining forest contained more of the critical habitats for biodiversity. Conversion of marginal agricultural lands to purpose-grown crops resulted in smaller differences from the baseline scenario in terms of forest area and the characteristics of remaining forest habitats. Each scenario affected the dominant type of land-use change in some regions, especially in the coastal plain that harbors high levels of biodiversity. Our results demonstrate the complex landscape effects of alternative bioenergy scenarios, highlight that the regions most likely to be affected by bioenergy production are also critical for

Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

Science.gov (United States)

Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.

2007-01-01

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tweak, Adapt, or Transform: Policy Scenarios in Response to Emerging Bioenergy Markets in the U.S. Corn Belt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan C. Atwell

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Emerging bioenergy markets portend both boon and bane for regions of intensive agricultural production worldwide. To understand and guide the effects of bioenergy markets on agricultural landscapes, communities, and economies, we engaged leaders in the Corn Belt state of Iowa in a participatory workshop and follow-up interviews to develop future policy scenarios. Analysis of workshop and interview data, in conjunction with the results of regional social and ecological research, was used to develop a heuristic model outlining interactions between key drivers and outcomes of regional landscape change. Three policy scenarios were built on this framework and included the following approaches: tweak, adapt, and transform. Our results suggest that if macroscale markets, technologies, and federal farm policies are allowed to be the overriding drivers of farm owner and operator decision making, Iowa's agricultural landscapes will likely become highly efficient at row crop production at the cost of other desired outcomes. However, the perspectives of Iowa leaders demonstrate how multifunctional agricultural landscapes can be achieved through a concerted portfolio of change coordinated across local, regional, and national scales.

South-East Asian Region (SEAR): Sea Basin Landscape Mapping for Paleoclimatology & Recent Climate Change Impacts

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this work includes the coastal scenario, risks and development of coastal paleoclimatology through landscape mapping; by highlighting the...

36 CFR 219.12 - Collaboration and cooperatively developed landscape goals.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... cooperatively developed landscape goals. 219.12 Section 219.12 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE PLANNING National Forest System Land and Resource Management Planning Collaborative Planning for Sustainability § 219.12 Collaboration and cooperatively developed landscape goals. (a...

Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

2012-01-01

Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

Participatory scenario development to address potential impacts of land use change : An example from the Italian alps

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc

2015-01-01

Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario

Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

2001-01-01

Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

Integrating natural disturbances and management activities to examine risks and opportunities in the central Oregon landscape analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Theresa Burcsu; Janet Ohmann; Ryan Singleton

2010-01-01

We used state and transition models to integrate natural disturbances and management activities for a 275 000-ha landscape in the central Oregon Cascades. The landscape consists of a diverse mix of land ownerships, land use allocations, and environments. Three different management scenarios were developed from public input: (1) no management except wildfire suppression...

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Gong

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Landscape anthropogenic disturbance in the Mediterranean ecosystem: is the current landscape sustainable?

Science.gov (United States)

Biondi, Guido; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo; Franciosi, Chiara; Lima, Marco

2013-04-01

Mediterranean landscape during the last centuries has been subject to strong anthropogenic disturbances who shifted natural vegetation cover in a cultural landscape. Most of the natural forest were destroyed in order to allow cultivation and grazing activities. In the last century, fast growing conifer plantations were introduced in order to increase timber production replacing slow growing natural forests. In addition, after the Second World War most of the grazing areas were changed in unmanaged mediterranean conifer forest frequently spread by fires. In the last decades radical socio economic changes lead to a dramatic abandonment of the cultural landscape. One of the most relevant result of these human disturbances, and in particular the replacement of deciduous forests with coniferous forests, has been the increasing in the number of forest fires, mainly human caused. The presence of conifers and shrubs, more prone to fire, triggered a feedback mechanism that makes difficult to return to the stage of potential vegetation causing huge economic, social and environmental damages. The aim of this work is to investigate the sustainability of the current landscape. A future landscape scenario has been simulated considering the natural succession in absence of human intervention assuming the current fire regime will be unaltered. To this end, a new model has been defined, implementing an ecological succession model coupled with a simply Forest Fire Model. The ecological succession model simulates the vegetation dynamics using a rule-based approach discrete in space and time. In this model Plant Functional Types (PFTs) are used to describe the landscape. Wildfires are randomly ignited on the landscape, and their propagation is simulated using a stochastic cellular automata model. The results show that the success of the natural succession toward a potential vegetation cover is prevented by the frequency of fire spreading. The actual landscape is then unsustainable

Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

2007-08-20

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

Linking ecosystem services with cultural landscape research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schaich, Harald; Biding, Claudia; Plieninger, Tobias

2010-01-01

The concept of ecosystem services facilitates the valuation of the multiple services from ecosystems and landscapes, the identification of trade-offs between different land use scenarios, and also informs decision making in land use planning. Unfortunately, cultural services have been mostly...... neglected within the ecosystem services framework. This could result in trade-off assessments which are biased and mislead ecosystem management and landscape planning. However, cultural landscape research approaches have proven valuable in the assessment of different nonmaterial landscape values...... and cultural services. In this paper, we compare the objectives, approaches, and methodologies adopted by ecosystem services research and cultural landscape research through a bibliographic research. Both research communities investigate the human dimension of ecosystems and landscapes and, hence, study...

Landscape impact assessment for wind turbine development in Dyfed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blandford, C.; White, S.; Thomas, B.; Osment, F.

1994-01-01

The study aims to identify those areas in Dyfed where, in terms of landscape impact, local authorities might seek to exclude or encourage wind turbine development, provide guidelines which will assist local authorities in judging the impact of wind turbine developments on the landscape and provide a basis and framework for the preparation of planning policy guidelines for acceptable wind turbine and wind farm developments in Dyfed. The study context reviews current Government energy and planning policies for the encouragement of wind turbine developments. Dyfed County Council's relevant Structure Plan policies are also considered, as are the new draft policies relating directly to wind energy released by other authorities. The sizes and status of planning applications are summarised and the landscape implications and precedent set by the test case at Mynydd-y-Cemais is discussed. Public perception of wind power is reviewed in the context of research in Europe and the USA. (author)

Strategic planning for sustainable spatial, landscape and tourism development in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maksin Marija

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents an overview of the expected role of spatial and environmental planning in coordination and integration with strategic planning for sustainable spatial/territorial, landscape and tourism development. The application of an integrated approach to sustainable territorial development planning and management in the European Union is also analyzed in the context of problems associated with and possibilities to enhance the European Landscape Convention and Agenda for a sustainable and competitive European tourism implementation. We have analyzed the contributions of reforms that have so far been implemented in current legislation and of planning bases to the establishment of coordinated sustainable territorial development planning and management in Serbia and to the procurement of support for the integration of sustainable tourism development and landscape planning and management into the process of spatial, environmental and sectoral planning. The approach to and problems of landscape protection and sustainable tourism development occurring in the practice in spatial planning are analyzed through examples of a new generation of spatial plans - the Spatial Plan of the Republic of Serbia, and a spatial plan of the special-purpose area for the Nature Park and Tourism Region of Stara Planina Mountain. Through the example of Mt Stara Planina, the role of strategic environmental assessment in coordination with spatial and sectoral planning is analyzed, as well as potential contribution to landscape integration and sustainable tourism development in the process of planning. The possibilities for better coordination of Serbian strategic planning in achieving the sustainable spatial and tourism development, and possibilities to integrate landscapes into the planning process are indicated.

Persistence of aquatic insects across managed landscapes: effects of landscape permeability on re-colonization and population recovery.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nika Galic

Full Text Available Human practices in managed landscapes may often adversely affect aquatic biota, such as aquatic insects. Dispersal is often the limiting factor for successful re-colonization and recovery of stressed habitats. Therefore, in this study, we evaluated the effects of landscape permeability, assuming a combination of riparian vegetation (edge permeability and other vegetation (landscape matrix permeability, and distance between waterbodies on the colonization and recovery potential of weakly flying insects. For this purpose, we developed two models, a movement and a population model of the non-biting midge, Chironomus riparius, an aquatic insect with weak flying abilities. With the movement model we predicted the outcome of dispersal in a landscape with several linear water bodies (ditches under different assumptions regarding landscape-dependent movement. Output from the movement model constituted the probabilities of encountering another ditch and of staying in the natal ditch or perishing in the landscape matrix, and was used in the second model. With this individual-based model of midge populations, we assessed the implications for population persistence and for recovery potential after an extreme stress event. We showed that a combination of landscape attributes from the movement model determines the fate of dispersing individuals and, once extrapolated to the population level, has a big impact on the persistence and recovery of populations. Population persistence benefited from low edge permeability as it reduced the dispersal mortality which was the main factor determining population persistence and viability. However, population recovery benefited from higher edge permeability, but this was conditional on the low effective distance that ensured fewer losses in the landscape matrix. We discuss these findings with respect to possible landscape management scenarios.

Using Landscape metrics to analyze the landscape evolution under land abandonment

Science.gov (United States)

Pelorosso, Raffaele; Della Chiesa, Stefano; Gobattoni, Federica; Leone, Antonio

2010-05-01

view, therefore, not all the abandoned land will be covered by woods also after a reasonable time (e.g 20-30 years); open areas patches can resist over time as a consequence of different (more o less natural) disturbances, pointing out a landscape mosaic and vegetation pattern almost never completely homogeneous. This spatial and temporal differentiation of landscape pattern, therefore, require both the individuation of disturbances and their effect on land abandonment process to be analyzed for each different landscape. Many types of analysis and models were developed and used to understand the reason of abandonment, its evolution, likelihood future landscape scenarios and the leading consequences on environment and population in order to establish right land-uses to obtain suitable and sustainable goods and services from landscape itself. One of these analysis recurs to landscape metrics. Landscape metrics have been widely applied in ecology and landscape ecology (Rainis, 2003; Romero-Calcerrada and Perry, 2004 ; Narumalani et al., 2004; Rocchini et al., 2006) because they allow an objective description of the temporal pattern of landscape change and a comparison with other landscapes (Turner et al., 2001). Furthermore, a description of the shape, size and spatial arrangement of patches of vegetation can be used to link the observed pattern with the ecological processes that may have generated it (Rocchini et al., 2006). So these metrics can be used to see how an abandoned landscape can evolve under the effects of different constrictions that, also if not completely knew, have been affecting the present assessment. Through historical and recent aerial photos (1954-1985-1999) and several landscape metrics, the evolution of marginal municipality of central Apennine under abandonment is presented here. Temporal evolution of landscape metrics was discussed to underline the importance of such descriptors of vegetation pattern dynamics and the key role played by these

Broad-scale assessments of ecological landscapes: developing methods and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Carr, Natasha B.; Wood, David J. A.; Bowen, Zachary H.; Haby, Travis S.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is developing a Landscape Approach for managing multiple uses of public lands by incorporating multiscale information to quantify the effects of natural and human influences on natural resource conditions and trends. A primary goal of the approach is to identify opportunities for resource conservation, restoration, and development. The BLM Landscape Approach is developing assessment methods that promote consistency in management decisions, identify ecological characteristics that promote ecosystem resilience under rapidly changing environmental conditions, and foster collaboration among land management agencies. The BLM Landscape Approach is closely aligned with the DOI’s “A Strategy for Improving the Mitigation Policies and Practices of The Department of the Interior.”

The joint SKI/SKB scenario development project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Johan

1989-12-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power and Swedish Nuclear Waste Management Co. have carried through a joint scenario development exercise of a hypothetical repository for spent fuel and high level waste based on the KBS-3 concept as disposal method. The starting point has been the 'Sandia methodology', but the actual implementation of the steps in this method has required new strategy development. The work started with a relatively large internationally composed group meeting, which identified an extensive list of features, events and processes (FEPs) that might influence the long term performance of a repository. All these FEPs as well as its possible causes and consequences have been entered into a computer database. The next step in the development was to remove from the list approximately 30 FEPs of low probability or negligible consequence. In a following step a large number of the FEPs on the original list were assigned to the 'PROCESS SYSTEM', comprising the complete set of 'deterministic' chemical and physical processes that might influence the release from the repository to the biosphere. A scenario is defined by a set of external conditions which will influence the processes in the PROCESS SYSTEM. Approximately 50 FEPs were left representing external conditions. The remaining FEPs could all be combined to form scenarios, but it is concluded that it is not meaningful to discuss combinations without first analysing the consequence and probability of the individual conditions. An important aspect of the work is that the developed strategy includes a framework for the documentation of the complete chain of scenario development. Such a transparent documentation makes possible an extensive review and updating of the set of scenarios. A reviewing process, open to very broad groups in the society, is probably the best means of assuring reasonable completeness and of building up a general consensus on what are the critical issues for the safe disposal of radioactive waste

a Cultural Landscape Information System Developed with Open Source Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Chudyk, C.; Müller, H.; Uhler, M.; Würriehausen, F.

2013-07-01

Since 2010, the state of Rhineland-Palatinate in Germany has developed a cultural landscape information system as a process to secure and further enrich aggregate data about its cultural assets. In an open dialogue between governing authorities and citizens, the intention of the project is an active cooperation of public and private actors. A cultural landscape information system called KuLIS was designed as a web platform, combining semantic wiki software with a geographic information system. Based on data sets from public administrations, the information about cultural assets can be extended and enhanced by interested participants. The developed infrastructure facilitates local information accumulation through a crowdsourcing approach. This capability offers new possibilities for e-governance and open data developments. The collaborative approach allows governing authorities to manage and supervise official data, while public participation enables affordable information acquisition. Gathered cultural heritage information can provide incentives for touristic valorisation of communities or concepts for strengthening regional identification. It can also influence political decisions in defining significant cultural regions worth of protecting from industrial influences. The presented cultural landscape information allows citizens to influence the statewide development of cultural landscapes in a democratic way.

[Ecological risk assessment of Taihu Lake basin based on landscape pattern].

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Xiao Ping; Chen, Zhi Cong; Wang, Fang; Bai, Mao Wei; Xu, Wen Yang

2017-10-01

Taihu Lake basin was selected as the study site. Based on the landscape data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the Markov and CLUE-S models were used to simulate the landscape types with different scenarios in 2030, and landscape ecological risk index was constructed. The shift of gravity center and spatial statistics were used to reveal landscape ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin with temporal and spatial characteristics. The results showed that the ecological risk mainly was at medium and low levels in Taihu Lake basin, and the higher ecological risk areas were mainly distributed at the Taihu Lake area during 2000 to 2015, and the low ecological risk was transferred from the southwest and south of Taihu Lake to the developed areas in the northern part of Taihu Lake area. Spatial analysis showed that landscape ecological risk had negative correlation with natural factors, which was weakened gradually, while the correlation with socioeconomic factors trended to become stronger, with human disturbance affecting the landscape ecological risk significantly. The impact of socioeconomic factors on landscape ecological risks differed in different urbanization stages. In the developing area, with the economic development, the landscape was increasingly fragmented and the ecological risk was correspondingly increased. While in the developed area, with the further development of the economy, the aggregation index was increased, and fragmentation and separation indexes were decreased, ecological construction was restored, and the landscape ecological risk began to decline. CLUE-S model simulation showed that the ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin would be reduced in future, mainly on the low and relatively low levels. Taihu Lake area, both in history and the future, is a high ecological risk zone, and its management and protection should be strengthened.

Flowscapes : Infrastructure as landscape, landscape as infrastructure. Graduation Lab Landscape Architecture 2012/2013

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijhuis, S.; Jauslin, D.; De Vries, C.

2012-01-01

Flowscapes explores infrastructure as a type of landscape and landscape as a type of infrastructure, and is focused on landscape architectonic design of transportation-, green- and water infrastructures. These landscape infrastructures are considered armatures for urban and rural development. With

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

Science.gov (United States)

Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

2017-01-01

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

Development formalization of the e-learning pedagogical scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олександр Іванович Пушкар

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The place of the pedagogical scenario in development of the e-learning support system has been defined. The process of student's interaction with the system of e-learning in the form of a proper dialogue has been proposed. Peculiarities of constructing typical models of scenarios of academic disciplines have been analyzed. A technique for quantitative assessment of the relationships between the objects of study in the model of a pedagogical scenario has been offered

Participatory evaluation of regional light rail scenarios: A Flemish case on sustainable mobility and land-use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermote, Levi; Macharis, Cathy; Hollevoet, Joachim; Putman, Koen

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose three light rail scenarios, each covering a specific landscape structure to curtail private vehicle-driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. • We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) to assess the social, economic and environmental impact of alternative light rail scenarios. • We discuss catalyst measures to comply with the identified drawbacks of the proposed scenarios. - Abstract: Rail transit is generally acknowledged as an alternative transport mode in contributing towards sustainable mobility. In addition to minimising negative externalities, rail transit has sustainable land-use opportunities to integrate transport- and spatial planning. The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of integrative light rail scenarios and their ability to curtail private vehicle driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. The paper proposes three light rail scenarios: an infrastructural scenario; tramification scenario; and spatial rail scenario, each covering a specific landscape structure to reorganise the dispersed spatial environment in Flanders in the long-term. We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) which incorporates the objectives of all involved stakeholders to assess the impact of the scenarios. The infrastructural alternative scenario gained most support among the involved stakeholders, on the grounds of improved multimodality, enhanced user amenities, reduced implementation costs, moderated greenhouse gas emissions and mitigated infrastructural barrier effects. Despite the merits of the infrastructural scenario in terms of stakeholder objectives, few possibilities are included to elaborate upon sustainable land-use development. In response to the low performance of this assessment criterion, catalyst measures are discussed to support the implementation

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retèl Valesca P

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

2015-12-31

A new Web-based application, titled “Application of Flood Regressions and Climate Change Scenarios To Explore Estimates of Future Peak Flows”, has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, that allows a user to apply a set of regression equations to estimate the magnitude of future floods for any stream or river in New York State (exclusive of Long Island) and the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. The regression equations that are the basis of the current application were developed in previous investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are described at the USGS StreamStats Web sites for New York (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/new_york.html) and Vermont (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/Vermont.html). These regression equations include several fixed landscape metrics that quantify aspects of watershed geomorphology, basin size, and land cover as well as a climate variable—either annual precipitation or annual runoff.

Logging or conservation concession: Exploring conservation and development outcomes in Dzanga-Sangha, Central African Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marieke Sandker

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The Dzanga-Sangha landscape consists of a national park surrounded by production forest. It is subject to an integrated conservation and development project (ICDP. In collaboration with the ICDP personnel, a participatory model was constructed to explore wildlife conservation and industrial logging scenarios for the landscape. Three management options for the landscape′s production forest were modelled: (I ′predatory logging′, exploitation by a logging company characterised by a lack of long-term plans for staying in the landscape, (II sustainable exploitation by a certified logging company, and (III conservation concession with no commercial timber harvesting. The simulation outcomes indicate the extreme difficulties to achieve progress on either conservation or development scenarios. Both logging scenarios give best outcomes for development of the local population. However, the depletion of bushmeat under the predatory logging scenario negatively impacts the population, especially the BaAka pygmy minority who most strongly depend on hunting for their income. The model suggests that conservation and development outcomes are largely determined by the level of economic activity, both inside and outside the landscape. Large investments in the formal sector in the landscape without any measures for protecting wildlife (Scenario I leads to some species going nearly extinct, while investments in the formal sector including conservation measures (Scenario II gives best outcomes for maintaining wildlife populations. The conservation concession at simulated investment levels does not reduce poverty, defined here in terms of monetary income. Neither does it seem capable of maintaining wildlife populations since the landscape is already filled with settlers lacking economic opportunities as alternatives to poaching.

[Dynamic evolution of landscape spatial pattern in Taihu Lake basin, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fang; Xie, Xiao Ping; Chen, Zhi Cong

2017-11-01

Based on the land-use satellite image datasets of 2000, 2010 and 2015, the landscape index, dynamic change model, landscape transfer matrix and CLUE-S model were integrated to analyze the dynamic evolution of the landscape spatial pattern of Taihu Lake basin. The results showed that the landscape type of the basin was dominated by cultivated land and construction land, and the degree of landscape fragmentation was strengthened from 2000 to 2015, and the distribution showed a uniform trend. From the point of transfer dynamic change, the cultivated land and construction land changed significantly, which was reduced by 6761 km 2 (2.1%) and increased by 6615.33 km 2 (8.4%), respectively. From the landscape transfer, it could be seen that the main change direction of the cultivated land reduction was the construction land, and the cultivated land with 7866.30 km 2 was converted into construction land, accounting for 91.6% of the cultivated land change, and the contribution to the construction land was 96.5%. The trend of dynamic changes of cultivated and construction land in the counties and cities was the same as that of the whole Taihu Lake basin. For Shanghai Central Urban, as well as Pudong District, Lin'an City, Baoshan District, Minhang District, Jiading District and Changzhou City, the area of the cultivated land and construction land changed more prominently. However, compared with the CLUE-S model for the landscape pattern change in 2030, the change of cultivated and construction lands would be the largest in the natural development scenario. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of grassland would increase and the dynamic degree would reach 54.5%. Under the situation of cultivated land protection, the conversion of cultivated land to construction land would be decreased.

Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production: Evaluating Best Management Practices for Biofuel Feedstock Production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ha, Miae [Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA; Wu, May [Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA

2015-09-08

Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. This study evaluates the improvement of water sustainability through an integrated landscaping management strategy, where landscaping design, land management operations, crop systems, and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) play equal roles. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, with a focus on implementing riparian buffers and converting low productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass while benefiting soil and water quality. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the impact of integrated landscape design on nutrients, suspended sediments, and flow on the watershed and subbasin scales. First, the study evaluated the representation of buffer strip as a vegetative barrier and as a riparian buffer using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. For the riparian buffer, the area ratio method tends to be more conservative, especially in nitrate loadings, while the trapping efficiency method generates more optimistic results. The differences between the two methods increase with buffer width. The two methods may not be comparable for the field-scale vegetative barrier simulation because of limitations in model spatial resolution. Landscape scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (1) current land use, (2) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (3) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that when low productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively, in the watershed surface streams. The reduction was less extensive when riparian buffer strips (30 m or 50 m) were applied to the stream network at 1.4% of total land area

Conference on wind power development in the face of landscape and local project acceptability challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Victoire Lejzerzon; Sauron, Claire; Villot, Marie; Ratzbor, Guenter; Tausch, Christian; Cagneaux, Bertrand; Jouneau, Agathe; Stemmer, Boris; Huebner, Gundula; Orozco-Souel, Paola; Lhermitte, Charles; Ferus, Elisabeth; Benezech, Philippe; Gunzelmann, Thomas

2015-01-01

The French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a conference on n wind power development in the face of landscape and local project acceptability challenges. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, participants addressed the following points: the conciliation between landscape protection and wind power development, the definition of landscape environmental quality criteria, the needs and usages of the departments in charge of the treatment of landscape studies in France, the socio-psychological approach of the local acceptability of wind farm projects, the re-powering tool for the improvement of the wind farm integration in the landscape, and the conciliation between the monuments maintenance and wind power development. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Conciliating landscape protection and wind power development goals in France (Marie Villot); 2 - Wind turbines: Conflicts between development goals, landscape and acceptance - Perception and criteria (Guenter Ratzbor); 3 - Bayern's wind power atlas: a planning tool which takes into account the landscape aspects (Christian Tausch); 4 - Landscape assessment in wind farms projects: what and how to do in French administrative procedures? (Bertrand Cagneaux); 5 - Methods for evaluation of landscape for wind farms projects - A French project developer's feedback (Agathe Jouneau); 6 - Landscape Assessment: Methods from German Landscape Practice (Boris Stemmer); 7 - Acceptance of Wind Turbines - Social Psychological Research (Gundula Huebner); 8 - Local consultation: who to involve, when and how? (Paola Orozco-Souel); 9 - Local acceptability: what dialogue concepts and strategies, and how to manage wind energy objection (Charles Lhermitte); 10 - Re-powering and landscape: chances and limits (Elisabeth Ferus); 11 - Wind power and cultural heritage: consultation and dialogue to succeed (Philippe Benezech); 12

Landscape metrics application in ecological and visual landscape assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gavrilović Suzana

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The development of landscape-ecological approach application in spatial planning provides exact theoretical and empirical evidence for monitoring ecological consequences of natural and/or anthropogenic factors, particularly changes in spatial structures caused by them. Landscape pattern which feature diverse landscape values is the holder of the unique landscape character at different spatial levels and represents a perceptual domain for its users. Using the landscape metrics, the parameters of landscape composition and configuration are mathematical algorithms that quantify the specific spatial characteristics used for interpretation of landscape features and processes (physical and ecological aspect, as well as forms (visual aspect and the meaning (cognitive aspect of the landscape. Landscape metrics has been applied mostly in the ecological and biodiversity assessments as well as in the determination of the level of structural change of landscape, but more and more applied in the assessment of the visual character of the landscape. Based on a review of relevant literature, the aim of this work is to show the main trends of landscape metrics within the aspect of ecological and visual assessments. The research methodology is based on the analysis, classification and systematization of the research studies published from 2000 to 2016, where the landscape metrics is applied: (1 the analysis of landscape pattern and its changes, (2 the analysis of biodiversity and habitat function and (3 a visual landscape assessment. By selecting representative metric parameters for the landscape composition and configuration, for each category is formed the basis for further landscape metrics research and application for the integrated ecological and visual assessment of the landscape values. Contemporary conceptualization of the landscape is seen holistically, and the future research should be directed towards the development of integrated landscape assessment

Possible Scenarios of Ecotourism Evolution in Republic of Moldova from the Perspective of Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popa, B.

2014-06-01

Full Text Available By using the Sector Scenario Approach, the present paper aims to fill an important gap of information regarding ecotourism activities connected with the management of protected areas in the Republic of Moldova. The paper captures the economic value of landscape as ecosystem service and assesses the development perspective of this sector by comparing “business as usual” and “sustainable ecosystem management” scenarios, giving also information regarding the effect of the ecotourism across the economy of the Republic of Moldova.

Scenario Development Workshop Synopsis. Integration Group for the Safety Case - June 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Paul; Voinis, Sylvie; Griffault, Lise; De Meredieu, Jean; Kwong, Gloria; ); Van Luik, Abraham; Bailey, Lucy; Capouet, Manuel; Depaus, Christophe; Makino, Hitoshi; Leigh, Christi; Kirkes, Ross; Leino, Jaakko; Niemeyer, Matthias; Wolf, Jens; Watson, Sarah; Franke, Bettina; Ilett, Doug; Pastina, Barbara; Weetjens, Eef

2016-03-01

Scenario development and selection describes the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information relevant to the potential paths of evolution of a radioactive waste disposal facility (repository) that is necessary to assess its long-term performance and safety. In 1999, the NEA held its first workshop on scenario development in Madrid, Spain, with the objective to review the methods for developing scenarios in safety assessments and their application. Since then, the process of scenario development and analysis for the disposal of radioactive waste has changed and, in 2015, the NEA Integration Group for the Safety Case (IGSC) held a second workshop on this topic at its offices in Paris to further evaluate the experience acquired in developing scenarios since 1999. To prepare for this workshop, the IGSC also launched a survey in 2014 to gather the latest scenario development and uncertainty management strategies used in IGSC member countries. The purposes of the workshop were to (i) provide a forum to review and discuss methods for scenario development and their contribution to the development of recent safety cases (since the 1999 workshop); (ii) examine the latest methods and compare their scope, consistency and function within the overall safety assessment process, based on practical experience of applications; and (iii) provide a basis for producing the present report summarising the current status of scenario methodologies, identifying where sufficient methods exist and any outstanding problem areas. This report provides an overview of the state of the art in scenario development related to the long-term safety of geological repositories for radioactive waste. In particular, it discusses how potential scenarios are developed in safety assessments of radioactive waste that contains long-lived radionuclides. Safety assessment is the process of quantitatively and qualitatively evaluating the safety of a repository, often in support of a

Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

Science.gov (United States)

Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

2009-01-01

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

A multispecies framework for landscape conservation planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwenk, W Scott; Donovan, Therese M

2011-10-01

Rapidly changing landscapes have spurred the need for quantitative methods for conservation assessment and planning that encompass large spatial extents. We devised and tested a multispecies framework for conservation planning to complement single-species assessments and ecosystem-level approaches. Our framework consisted of 4 elements: sampling to effectively estimate population parameters, measuring how human activity affects landscapes at multiple scales, analyzing the relation between landscape characteristics and individual species occurrences, and evaluating and comparing the responses of multiple species to landscape modification. We applied the approach to a community of terrestrial birds across 25,000 km(2) with a range of intensities of human development. Human modification of land cover, road density, and other elements of the landscape, measured at multiple spatial extents, had large effects on occupancy of the 67 species studied. Forest composition within 1 km of points had a strong effect on occupancy of many species and a range of negative, intermediate, and positive associations. Road density within 1 km of points, percent evergreen forest within 300 m, and distance from patch edge were also strongly associated with occupancy for many species. We used the occupancy results to group species into 11 guilds that shared patterns of association with landscape characteristics. Our multispecies approach to conservation planning allowed us to quantify the trade-offs of different scenarios of land-cover change in terms of species occupancy. Conservation Biology © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Relationship between tourism development and vegetated landscapes in Luya Mountain Nature Reserve, Shanxi, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Zhan-Hong; Zhang, Jin-Tun

2005-09-01

The relationship between tourism development and vegetated landscapes is analyzed for the Luya Mountain Nature Reserve (LMNR), Shanxi, China, in this study. Indices such as Sensitive Level (SL), Landscape Importance Value (LIV), information index of biodiversity (H'), Shade-tolerant Species Proportion (SSP), and Tourism Influencing Index (TII) are used to characterize vegetated landscapes, the impact of tourism, and their relationship. Their relationship is studied by Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis (TWINSPAN) and Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA). TWINSPAN gives correct and rapid partition to the classification, and DCA ordination shows the changing tendency of all vegetation types based on tourism development. These results reflect the ecological relationship between tourism development and vegetated landscapes. In Luya Mountain Nature Reserve, most plant communities are in good or medium condition, which shows that these vegetated landscapes can support more tourism. However, the occurrence of the bad condition shows that there is a severe contradiction between tourism development and vegetated landscapes.

Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

2002-01-01

Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

Recent developments in computer modeling add ecological realism to landscape genetics

Science.gov (United States)

Background / Question / Methods A factor limiting the rate of progress in landscape genetics has been the shortage of spatial models capable of linking life history attributes such as dispersal behavior to complex dynamic landscape features. The recent development of new models...

Globalisation, sustainable development and competencies of landscape change in a European perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, Jesper

2005-01-01

During the last 10 years the collective goals connected with the agenda of sustainable development has been challenged by the globalisation agenda furthering a global liberalised market with the individual producer and consumer in focus. Only in the local planning and management of the concrete...... landscape the two agendas seems to meet. In a European perspective the European landscape convention has been promoted as a common frame for the promotion of landscape aspect of the sustainability agenda. The paper analyses the EU proposal for a European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) from...... on the ability and strength of local authorities to unite for such goals, and that detailed analyses of the power balance between different geographical competences in the rural community is necessary to evaluate the possibilities for a sustainable landscape development in rural areas under the conditions...

Landscape Architecture in Contemporary Danish Suburban Development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roden, Tina Maria

2013-01-01

to evaluate and re-think the both loved and criticised suburbia and its incompatibility in relation to the current environmental and climate prospects, these projects suggest that a landscape orientated approach to (sub)urban development can provide more adaptive and flexible frameworks to meet...

Landscape Ecology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Brandt, Jesper; Svenningsen, Stig Roar

2017-01-01

Landscape ecology is an interdisciplinary field of research and practice that deals with the mutual association between the spatial configuration and ecological functioning of landscapes, exploring and describing processes involved in the differentiation of spaces within landscapes......, and the ecological significance of the patterns which are generated by such processes. In landscape ecology, perspectives drawn from existing academic disciplines are integrated based on a common, spatially explicit mode of analysis developed from classical holistic geography, emphasizing spatial and landscape...... pattern analysis and ecological interaction of land units. The landscape is seen as a holon: an assemblage of interrelated phenomena, both cultural and biophysical, that together form a complex whole. Enduring challenges to landscape ecology include the need to develop a systematic approach able...

Overview and example application of the Landscape Treatment Designer

Science.gov (United States)

Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; David E. Owens; Stuart Brittain; Jeff. Hamann

2012-01-01

The Landscape Treatment Designer (LTD) is a multicriteria spatial prioritization and optimization system to help design and explore landscape fuel treatment scenarios. The program fills a gap between fire model programs such as FlamMap, and planning systems such as ArcFuels, in the fuel treatment planning process. The LTD uses inputs on spatial treatment objectives,...

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALGORITHM FOR CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL SCENARIO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. S. Borisova

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: the article deals with the development of an algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy. Since the "Strategy for socio-economic development of the Lipetsk region for the period until 2020" does not contain scenarios for the development of the region, the algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy is formalized. The scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region according to the indicators of the Program of social and economic development are calculated: "Quality of life index", "Average monthly nominal wage", "Level of registered unemployment", "Growth rate of gross regional product", "The share of innovative products in the total volume of goods shipped, works performed and services rendered by industrial organizations", "Total volume of atmospheric pollution per unit GRP" and "Satisfaction of the population with the activity of executive bodies of state power of the region". Based on the calculation of development scenarios, the dynamics of the values of these indicators was developed in the implementation of scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region in 2016–2020. Discounted financial costs of economic participants for realization of scenarios of development of economy of the Lipetsk region are estimated. It is shown that the current situation in the economy of the Russian Federation assumes the choice of a paradigm for the innovative development of territories and requires all participants in economic relations at the regional level to concentrate their resources on the creation of new science-intensive products. An assessment of the effects of the implementation of reasonable scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region was carried out. It is shown that the most acceptable is the "base" scenario, which assumes a consistent change in the main indicators. The specific economic

Modelling agro-forestry scenarios for ammonia abatement in the landscape

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bealey, W J; Braban, C F; Famulari, D; Theobald, M R; Reis, S; Sutton, M A; Loubet, B; Reay, D S

2014-01-01

Ammonia emissions from livestock production can have negative impacts on nearby protected sites and ecosystems that are sensitive to eutrophication and acidification. Trees are effective scavengers of both gaseous and particulate pollutants from the atmosphere making tree belts potentially effective landscape features to support strategies aiming to reduce ammonia impacts. This research used the MODDAS-THETIS a coupled turbulence and deposition turbulence model, to examine the relationships between tree canopy structure and ammonia capture for three source types—animal housing, slurry lagoon, and livestock under a tree canopy. By altering the canopy length, leaf area index, leaf area density, and height of the canopy in the model the capture efficiencies varied substantially. A maximum of 27% of the emitted ammonia was captured by tree canopy for the animal housing source, for the slurry lagoon the maximum was 19%, while the livestock under trees attained a maximum of 60% recapture. Using agro-forestry systems of differing tree structures near ‘hot spots’ of ammonia in the landscape could provide an effective abatement option for the livestock industry that complements existing source reduction measures. (paper)

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

Science.gov (United States)

Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

2017-04-15

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

OpenAIRE

Cristina Montiel Molina; Luis Galiana-Martín

2016-01-01

Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propag...

Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

2017-12-01

There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

Preservation and Development: The Cultural Landscape and Heritage Paradox in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Valk, van der A.J.J.

2014-01-01

Heritage managers and spatial planners have traditionally developed conservation-oriented (that is, defensive) strategies to protect archaeological–historical values in rural landscapes. However, despite increasing government policy conservation efforts, rural landscapes face continuous

Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

2008-11-01

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

2008-01-01

As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

2014-01-01

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anniken Enger

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

Using interviews and focus groups with resource managers to explore risk perceptions and responses to climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.

2016-12-01

development. The use of small focus groups to engage with climate scenarios could add value to other ongoing efforts to promote landscape-scale adaptation.

Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. M. Niaz Arifin

2015-05-01

Full Text Available A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM of malaria with a geographic information system (GIS. For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices obtained from the results of 750 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.

Introduction of developing a list of MSO generic scenarios for PHWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jae Wan; Park, Jun Hyun; Bae, Hui Soo [STANDARD Testing and Engineering Ing. Ltd, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Multiple Spurious Operation(MSO) scenarios should contain scenarios threatening Post-fire safe shutdown function by MSO of Safe Shutdown Equipments(SSEs) as well as Non-SSEs. The list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) was developed by industrial survey. Although not all scenarios of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) are considered applicable to every reactor type, this list provides an input about MSO identification and treatment process. If NEI 00-01 is applied to other reactor type, analyst should review applicability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) and consider potential MSO scenarios undescribed in the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). Especially, in PHWR case, there is no list of MSO generic scenarios in Canada or internationally. There are substantial physical variations between NPPs. So some generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) would need validation. Nevertheless, industrial stakeholder have not did any MSO work until now. In this paper, results of first stage research that develop the list of MSO generic scenarios for pressurized heavy water reactor(PHWR) is introduced. According to the review results, specific review of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) is required such as how it applies to PHWR. And criteria was established for review of availability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). However there are still many tasks such as potential scenario review, risk model review and expert panel review.

Tweak, adapt, or transform: Policy scenarios in response to emerging bioenergy markets in the U.S

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan. C. Atwell; Lisa. A. Schulte; Lynne M. Westphal

2011-01-01

Emerging bioenergy markets portend both boon and bane for regions of intensive agricultural production worldwide. To understand and guide the effects of bioenergy markets on agricultural landscapes, communities, and economies, we engaged leaders in the Corn Belt state of Iowa in a participatory workshop and follow-up interviews to develop future policy scenarios....

The importance of scenario development in meeting 40 CFR part 191

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, R.L.

1988-01-01

Scenario development and screening is a fundamental part of performance assessment, but its importance in satisfying 40 CFR Part 191 (the standard) is sometimes underestimated. The first step in scenario development in support of performance assessment for the standard's containment requirements is to identify a set of potentially disruptive events and processes. This set must be broad enough to allow the identification, as required by the standard, of those processes and events that might affect the disposal system; data can then be collected on the scenarios identified in this step. The standard also requires that releases be estimated for all significant processes and events; thus the final step in scenario development is systematically screening the scenarios, on the basis of their probabilities and consequences, to select those that are important enough to be modeled in detail. In general, a few hundred scenarios for the release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository can be identified, but only a few of these can or should be modeled in detail

Landscape Hazards in Yukon Communities: Geological Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, K.; Kinnear, L.

2010-12-01

Climate change is considered to be a significant challenge for northern communities where the effects of increased temperature and climate variability are beginning to affect infrastructure and livelihoods (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Planning for and adapting to ongoing and future changes in climate will require the identification and characterization of social, economic, cultural, political and biophysical vulnerabilities. This pilot project addresses physical landscape vulnerabilities in two communities in the Yukon Territory through community-scale landscape hazard mapping and focused investigations of community permafrost conditions. Landscape hazards are identified by combining pre-existing data from public utilities and private-sector consultants with new geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity), shallow drilling, surficial geological mapping, and permafrost characterization. Existing landscape vulnerabilities are evaluated based on their potential for hazard (low, medium or high) under current climate conditions, as well as under future climate scenarios. Detailed hazard maps and landscape characterizations for both communities will contribute to overall adaptation plans and allow for informed development, planning and mitigation of potentially threatening hazards in and around the communities.

Connecting Brabant's cover sand landscapes through landscape history

Science.gov (United States)

Heskes, Erik; van den Ancker, Hanneke; Jungerius, Pieter Dirk; Harthoorn, Jaap; Maes, Bert; Leenders, Karel; de Jongh, Piet; Kluiving, Sjoerd; van den Oetelaar, Ger

2015-04-01

Noord-Brabant has the largest variety of cover sand landscapes in The Netherlands, and probably in Western Europe. During the Last Ice Age the area was not covered by land ice and a polar desert developed in which sand dunes buried the existing river landscapes. Some of these polar dune landscapes experienced a geomorphological and soil development that remained virtually untouched up to the present day, such as the low parabolic dunes of the Strabrechtse Heide or the later and higher dunes of the Oisterwijkse Vennen. As Noord-Brabant lies on the fringe of a tectonic basin, the thickness of cover sand deposits in the Centrale Slenk, part of a rift through Europe, amounts up to 20 metres. Cover sand deposits along the fault lines cause the special phenomenon of 'wijst' to develop, in which the higher grounds are wetter than the boarding lower grounds. Since 4000 BC humans settled in these cover sand landscapes and made use of its small-scale variety. An example are the prehistoric finds on the flanks and the historic towns on top of the 'donken' in northwest Noord-Brabant, where the cover sand landscapes are buried by river and marine deposits and only the peaks of the dunes protrude as donken. Or the church of Handel that is built beside a 'wijst' source and a site of pilgrimage since living memory. Or the 'essen' and plaggen agriculture that developed along the stream valleys of Noord-Brabant from 1300 AD onwards, giving rise to geomorphological features as 'randwallen' and plaggen soils of more than a metre thickness. Each region of Brabant each has its own approach in attracting tourists and has not yet used this common landscape history to connect, manage and promote their territories. We propose a landscape-historical approach to develop a national or European Geopark Brabants' cover sand landscapes, in which each region focuses on a specific part of the landscape history of Brabant, that stretches from the Late Weichselian polar desert when the dune

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Scenario development methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

1994-11-01

In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1997-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

The prosa methodology for scenario development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grupa, J.B.

2001-01-01

In this paper a methodology for scenario development is proposed. The method is developed in an effort to convince ourselves (and others) that all conceivable future developments of a waste repository have been covered. To be able to assess all conceivable future developments, the method needs to be comprehensive. To convince us and others the method should be structured in such a way that the treatment of each conceivable future development is traceable. The methodology is currently being applied to two Dutch disposal designs. Preliminary results show that the elaborated method functions better than the original method. However, some elements in the method will need further refinement. (author)

Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

OPTIMAL STRESSOR SCENARIOS FOR NEW OPERATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEMS by Geoffrey E. Fastabend December 2017 Thesis Advisor: Alejandro S... ENERGY SYSTEMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Geoffrey E. Fastabend 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School...developed and tested simulation model for operational energy related systems in order to develop better stressor scenarios for acceptance testing

Integrated scenarios of regional development in Ceará and Piauí

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.; Fuhr, Dagmar; Gaiser, T.; Krol, M.S; Frischkorn, H.; de Araújo, J.C.

2003-01-01

Scenarios of the future are an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative-quantitative scenarios which show potential developments of

European landscape architecture and territorial strategies for water landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diedrich, Lisa Babette

2010-01-01

This article sums up the author’s lecture at the 2009 Sydney Resilient Water Landscapes Symposium and presents a series of realized or planned European landscape architectural and urbanistic projects on water landscapes taken from the recently published book On Site/ Landscape Architecture Europe...... and accompanying reflections. The hypothesis is that further scientific research can help defining weaknesses and strengths of the existing water landscape designs in terms of resilience, extract principles and tools, improve the weak ones and communicate the strong ones and develop general quality criteria...... and tools for future resilient water landscapes....

Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Li

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Land use change has large effects on natural ecosystems, which is considered to be the main factor in eco-environment change. We analyzed the future characters of land use change by the CLUE-S model and explored landscape ecological risk responses to land use change by the landscape ecological risk index method. Using the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, we simulated future land use change from 2010 to 2030 under 3 scenarios (i.e., trend, high economic growth, and ecological security, and identified the hotspots of land use change. Afterward, we quantitatively investigated the degree of land use development and landscape ecological risk patterns that have occured since 2000 and that are expected to occur until 2030. Results revealed that, under the three scenarios, construction land and forest are expanding mainly at the expense of agriculture land and grassland. The hotspots of land use change are located in the vicinity of Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District of Chengde City in the midstream of the Luanhe River Basin, where urbanization has been strong since 2000 and is projected to continue that way until 2030. During this time period, hotspots of land use development have been gradually transferring from the downstream to the midstream since 2000 and, again, is expected to continue that way until 2030, which will impact the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk. We found that the landscape ecological risk of the entire basin has shown a negative trend. However, a few areas still have serious ecological risk, which are mainly located in the east of upstream (Duolun County and Weichang County, the middle region (Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District, Chengde County, and Xinglong County, and the downstream (Qinglong County. These can provide key information for land use management, and for helping to prepare future eco-environmental policies in the Luanhe River Basin.

Scenarios of socio-economic and energy development of the country up to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsvetanov, P.

1990-01-01

The scenarios description is given as the first stage of a procedure of an energy-economy interrelations dynamics study, the other two stages being the formulation and the analysis of the development variants. The scenarios reflect quantitatively the policies and the international conditions for the socio-economic, energy demand and energy supply developments of the country. Two economic development scenarios ('high' - official macroeconomic views and 'low' - economic restructuring and decrease of energy intensity) hierarchically preside over the two corresponding energy demand scenarios of different technological evolutions ('traditional' and 'energy efficiency' oriented one) in the industry, the transport and the domestic and services sectors. Four energy supply system scenarios follow, corresponding to different approaches in the development of the energy conversion technologies and energy carriers, thus constituting a scenario tree of the studies. 16 refs., 2 figs., 7 tab., 1 ann. (R.Ts.)

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

2018-04-29

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentham, Jeremy

2014-01-01

Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

Regionalized Development and Maintenance of the Intestinal Adaptive Immune Landscape

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agace, William Winston; McCoy, Kathy D.

2017-01-01

The intestinal immune system has the daunting task of protecting us from pathogenic insults while limiting inflammatory responses against the resident commensal microbiota and providing tolerance to food antigens. This role is particularly impressive when one considers the vast mucosal surface...... and changing landscape that the intestinal immune system must monitor. In this review, we highlight regional differences in the development and composition of the adaptive immune landscape of the intestine and the impact of local intrinsic and environmental factors that shape this process. To conclude, we...... review the evidence for a critical window of opportunity for early-life exposures that affect immune development and alter disease susceptibility later in life....

Software applications to three-dimensional visualization of forest landscapes -- A case study demontrating the use of visual nature studio (VNS) in visualizing fire spread in forest landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Brian J. Williams; Bo Song; Chou Chiao-Ying; Thomas M. Williams; John Hom

2010-01-01

Three-dimensional (3D) visualization is a useful tool that depicts virtual forest landscapes on computer. Previous studies in visualization have required high end computer hardware and specialized technical skills. A virtual forest landscape can be used to show different effects of disturbances and management scenarios on a computer, which allows observation of forest...

LANDSCAPE PLANNING IN UKRAINE: THE FIRST LANDSCAPE-PLANNING PROGRAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonid Rudenko

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the results of the first, in Ukraine; project on landscape planning widely accepted in European countries. Under the project implemented in 2010–2013, a landscape-planning program has been developed for the Cherkassy oblast. This is the first document of this kind in Ukraine. The program is mainly based on the experience of the German and Russian schools of landscape planning and on research and assessment conducted by the authors, which allowed identifying approaches to landscape planning, principles of the national policy, and characteristics and potential of environmentally friendly planning in Ukraine. The paper discusses the main phases of the work on the development of the landscape program for the oblast. It also identifies the main stages and key concepts and principles of landscape planning. The paper presents the results of integrated research on the identification and classification of conflicts in land use and the integral concept of the developmental goals for the oblast. The results can be the foundation for adopting management decisions and development of action plans for the lower hierarchal branches.

Biosphere scenario development. An interim report of an SKI, SSI, SKB working group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-11-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co have initiated a project for the development of scenarios for the behaviour of radionuclides in high level waste following deep geological disposal. The main objective is to develop a general consensus of scenarios and conceptual models. Within the project a biosphere scenarios working group was initiated to consider specific questions of the biosphere. This report describes the results of the group's deliberations up to the end of July 1989. A methodology is presented for the development of biosphere scenarios which may be considered alongside scenarios for radionuclide behaviour in the near field and geosphere. Two major biosphere elements affecting processes in the surface environment have been recognised, climate and development. Alternative states for climate and level of development are suggested and each combination can be considered with one or more of a range of biosphere receptors, such as a river or a lake. The features, events and processes relevant to each receptor are presented. Consideration is then given to biosphere assumptions for both gradual and direct releases from the geosphere, as well as biosphere effects on the repository near field or geosphere. The amount of screening which can be done at this stage to limit the number of biosphere scenarios is small. However, considerable potential exists once more details are available for geosphere release scenarios. It may be appropriate to further develop biosphere scenarios, specific to each geosphere release scenario. It may also be appropriate to consider scenarios specifically in relation to the individual radionuclides which dominate geosphere releases. Both these possibilities could result in considerably reduced requirements for calculations

Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

2012-11-15

With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

1998-01-01

Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

INNOVATION LANDSCAPE AS PRIORITY CONDITION OF INDUSTRIAL AND TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. A. Salikov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A rational development of industrial territories and regions implies the improvement of their cooperation in economic sector of the country, perfecting the territorial structure of husbandry, rational exploration of natural resources, usage of promising technologies, mobilization of investment etc. Along with this, the improvement of the existing and formation of a new industrial manufacture structure should be implemented with consideration of key market aspects, connected with competitiveness and innovations. Thus, an important condition of industrial structure development is the formation of innovative landscape representing the entirety of innovative territorial subjects that use innovative technologies, management tools for creation the product. In narrow sense, innovative landscape can be understood as an integrative entirety of parameters including socio-economic conditions, state administrative body, innovative economic subjects, existence of innovative infrastructure and cluster interactions etc. A methodic approach to comparative estimation of industrial regions innovative landscape parameters considered in the article lets identify its state and structural characteristics with the purpose of making more reasonable decisions on productive forces location and o n the increase of innovativeness level of industrial territories and regions.

New concept of aging care architecture landscape design based on sustainable development

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Ying

2017-05-01

As the aging problem becoming serious in China, Aging care is now one of the top issuer in front of all of us. Lots of private and public aging care architecture and facilities have been built. At present, we only pay attention to the architecture design and interior design scientific, ecological and sustainable design on aged care architecture landscape. Based on the social economy, population resources, mutual coordination and development of the environment, taking the elderly as the special group, this paper follows the principles of the sustainable development, conducts the comprehensive design planning of aged care landscape architecture and makes a deeper understanding and exploration through changing the form of architectural space, ecological landscape planting, new materials and technology, ecological energy utilization.

Development of a landscape integrity model framework to support regional conservation planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Walston, Leroy J; Hartmann, Heidi M

2018-01-01

Land managers increasingly rely upon landscape assessments to understand the status of natural resources and identify conservation priorities. Many of these landscape planning efforts rely on geospatial models that characterize the ecological integrity of the landscape. These general models utilize measures of habitat disturbance and human activity to map indices of ecological integrity. We built upon these modeling frameworks by developing a Landscape Integrity Index (LII) model using geospatial datasets of the human footprint, as well as incorporation of other indicators of ecological integrity such as biodiversity and vegetation departure. Our LII model serves as a general indicator of ecological integrity in a regional context of human activity, biodiversity, and change in habitat composition. We also discuss the application of the LII framework in two related coarse-filter landscape conservation approaches to expand the size and connectedness of protected areas as regional mitigation for anticipated land-use changes.

Review of scenario analyses to reduce agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus loading to the aquatic environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashemi, Fatemeh; Olesen, Jørgen E; Dalgaard, Tommy; Børgesen, Christen D

2016-12-15

Nutrient loadings of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to aquatic environments are of increasing concern globally for managing ecosystems, drinking water supply and food production. There are often multiple sources of these nutrients in the landscape, and the different hydrological flow patterns within stream or river catchments have considerable influence on nutrient transport, transformation and retention processes that all eventually affect loadings to vulnerable aquatic environments. Therefore, in order to address options to reduce nutrient loadings, quantitative assessment of their effects in real catchments need to be undertaken. This involves setting up scenarios of the possible nutrient load reduction measures and quantifying their impacts via modelling. Over the recent two decades there has been a great increase in the use of scenario-based analyses of strategies to combat excessive nutrient loadings. Here we review 130 published papers extracted from Web of Science for 1995 to 2014 that have applied models to analyse scenarios of agricultural impacts on nutrients loadings at catchment scale. The review shows that scenario studies have been performed over a broad range of climatic conditions, with a large focus on measures targeting land cover/use and land management for reducing the source load of N and P in the landscape. Some of the studies considered how to manage the flows of nutrients, or how changes in the landscape may be used to influence both flows and transformation processes. Few studies have considered spatially targeting measures in the landscape, and such studies are more recent. Spatially differentiated options include land cover/use modification and application of different land management options based on catchments characteristics, cropping conditions and climatic conditions. Most of the studies used existing catchment models such as SWAT and INCA, and the choice of the models may also have influenced the setup of the scenarios. The use of

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Landscape structure and the speed of adaptation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claudino, Elder S.; Campos, Paulo R.A.

2014-01-01

The role of fragmentation in the adaptive process is addressed. We investigate how landscape structure affects the speed of adaptation in a spatially structured population model. As models of fragmented landscapes, here we simulate the percolation maps and the fractal landscapes. In the latter the degree of spatial autocorrelation can be suited. We verified that fragmentation can effectively affect the adaptive process. The examination of the fixation rates and speed of adaptation discloses the dichotomy exhibited by percolation maps and fractal landscapes. In the latter, there is a smooth change in the pace of the adaptation process, as the landscapes become more aggregated higher fixation rates and speed of adaptation are obtained. On the other hand, in random percolation the geometry of the percolating cluster matters. Thus, the scenario depends on whether the system is below or above the percolation threshold. - Highlights: • The role of fragmentation on the adaptive process is addressed. • Our approach makes the linkage between population genetics and landscape ecology. • Fragmentation affects gene flow and thus influences the speed of adaptation. • The level of clumping determines how the speed of adaptation is influenced

The development of English primary care group governance. A scenario analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheaff, R

1999-01-01

At present there is a policy vacuum about what English Primary Care Groups' (PCGs) governance will be when they develop into Primary Care Trusts (PCTs). Draft legislation leaves many options open, so PCT governance is likely to 'emerge' as PCTs are created. It also remains uncertain how general practitioners (GPs) will react to the formation of PCTs and how the UK government will then respond in turn. A scenario analysis suggests three possible lines of development. The base (likeliest) scenario predicts a mainly networked form of PCT governance. An alternative scenario is of PCT governance resembling the former National Health Service internal market. A third scenario predicts 'franchise model' PCTs employing some GPs and subcontracting others. To different degrees all three scenarios predict that PCTs will retain elements of networked governance. If it fails to make GPs as accountable to NHS management as the UK government wishes, networked governance may prove only a transitional stage before English PCTs adopt either quasi-market or hierarchical governance.

Multifunctional landscape practice and accessibility in manorial landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, Jesper; Svenningsen, Stig Roar; Christensen, Andreas Aagaard

. However classical manorial estates seems to represent an opposite trend. Allthough working at the same market conditions as other large specialized holdings developed through the process of structural rationalization, they have often maintained and elaborated a land use strategy based on a multifunctional...... use of the potential ecosystem services present within their domain. The targeted combination of agriculture, forestry, hunting rents, rental housing, and a variety of recreational activities influences makes a certain public accessibility to an integrated part of this strategy, diverging from...... the multifunctional landscape strategy supporting a certain public access. A study of this thesis is presented based on an analysis of multifunctionality, landscape development and accessibility in Danish Manorial landscapes and eventual linkages between their multifunctional landscape strategy, their history...

Productive Urban Landscape In Developing Home Garden In Yogyakarta City

Science.gov (United States)

Irwan, S. N. R.; Sarwadi, A.

2017-10-01

Home garden is one type of agroecosystem that supports ecosystem services even in the urban settlement. The studies involved literature references and field survey along with a framework of the productive urban landscape that support ecosystem services in home garden. Productive urban landscape provided environmentally, socially and economically benefits that contained in ecosystem services. Problems on limited space in the urban settlement have to be managed by modified home garden system in order to work for ecosystem service in developing productive landscape. This study aimed to assess home garden (Pekarangan) system in a cluster of high density settlement in Yogyakarta City. Structured interview and vegetation identification of home garden have been conducted on 80 samples in Rejowinangun Kotagede District, Yogyakarta City. People showed enthusiasm in ecosystem services provided by home garden “Pekarangan Produktif” through developing productive urban landscape. Some benefits on ecosystem services of home garden were revealed on this study consisted of food production for sale (4.7%), home industry (7.69%), aesthetics (22.65%), food (14.10%), biodiversity (10.68%), ecosystem (12.82%), education (2.56), social interaction (11.54%), recreation (4.70%), and others (8.55%). Nevertheless, vegetation and other elements of home gardens have been managed irregularly and in particularly, the planned home gardens were only 17.07%. Actually, home gardens provided a large set of ecosystem services including being cultural services those are the category most valued. The urban people almost hided the understanding of the cultural benefit of ecosystem services of home garden, even though Yogyakarta has known the cultural city. Thus, urban home garden, as way as “Pekarangan Produktif” in the limited space that managed and planned sustainably, provide many benefits of ecosystem services in a productive urban landscape.

Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: tobias.lindborg@skb.se; Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Marine Sciences Centre, Umeaa (Sweden); Stroemgren, Maarten [Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden); Sohlenius, Gustav [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)] Loefgren, Anders [EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden)

2013-05-15

Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement.

Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva; Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten; Sohlenius, Gustav; Loefgren, Anders

2013-01-01

Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement

Chapter 4: Overview of the vegetation management treatment economic analysis module in the integrated landscape assessment project

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

2014-01-01

Forest land provides various ecosystem services, including timber, biomass, and carbon sequestration. Estimating trends in these ecosystem services is essential for assessing potential outcomes of landscape management scenarios. However, the state-and transition models used in the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project for simulating landscape changes over time do not...

Development of a digital mock-up system for selecting a decommissioning scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

2006-01-01

The evaluation of decommissioning scenarios is critical to the successful development and execution of a decommissioning project. In the past, many experts have used a physical mock-up system to find the exact work processes and the working positions. Nowadays, these jobs are being done by a Digital Mock-Up (DMU) system. The DMU, which is a technology to realize an effective work process by using virtual environments through representing the physical and logical schema and the behavior of a real decommissioning work, can save on the cost and time, reduce the risk of making later changes, and develop various decommissioning scenarios. In this research, a decommissioning DMU system was developed for simulating the relevant dismantling processes. Decommissioning data-computing modules which can calculate a dismantling schedule, quantify a radioactive waste, visualize a radioactive inventory, estimate a decommissioning cost, and estimate a worker's exposure were also developed to qualitatively assess the decommissioning information. And an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model was developed to evaluate the decommissioning scenarios which reflected the quantitative and qualitative considerations. To establish the proper scenario for the thermal column in KRR-1, the developed decommissioning DMU system was applied to evaluate the two candidate scenarios of it

Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Ruge

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

2013-01-01

The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning - a study from Denmark

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tress, B.; Tress, G.

2003-01-01

Increasingly, different functions must be integrated simultaneously in the Danish countryside, demanding a common effort of planners, decision-makers, researchers, and stakeholders. The study proposes a transdisciplinary method that combines scenario technique, photorealistic visualisation, and

Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuzhyk Kateryna

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

1994-01-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

Science.gov (United States)

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Frid, Leonardo; Olsson, Aaryn D.

2015-01-01

Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion results in the most

Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine S. Jarnevich

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion

Examining the Role of Cultural Landscape in Regional Development: Defining Criteria and Looking at Ephesus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gökçe Şimşek

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The link between regional development and cultural heritage has been at the center of theoretical discussions and practices in the field of preservation. Especially, varieties of practices and regional plans have been developed in different parts of the World such as Europe, Russia and South Africa in order to ensure regional development through cultural heritage. In this paper, it is accepted that a cultural landscape, as a sub-region of a particular region, is a relevant and meaningful unit that can contribute to the qualities of the region in terms of socio-cultural and economic aspects. In this context, the main goal of this paper is to develop a set of criteria that will act as a tool for identifying to which aspects of a cultural landscape has the potential to contribute regional development and to evaluate possible contributions of Ephesus and its cultural landscape to regional development. These criteria can be classified according to a framework implying a three-fold classification; improvements in the physical quality of the cultural landscape, economic dimension and socio-cultural dimension. As a result, this case indicates that cultural landscape has great potential to contribute to the social and economic development of a region. There is a great need to support community through tools such as awareness raising programmes, regional heritage planning, regional heritage institutions acting as regional agencies.

Sustainable energy landscapes : designing, planning, and development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stremke, S.; Dobbelsteen, van den A.

2013-01-01

In the near future the appearance and spatial organization of urban and rural landscapes will be strongly influenced by the generation of renewable energy. One of the critical tasks will be the re-integration of these sustainable energy landscapes into the existing environment—which people value and

Using scenario based programming to develop embedded control software

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bettiol, F.

2015-01-01

A new paradigm to develop embedded software is waking up the interest of companies. Its name is Scenario Based Programming and it claims to be a good approach to develop embedded software. Live Sequence Charts (LSC), a visual language supporting the paradigm, enables the developers to specify a

A future scenario of the global regulatory landscape regarding genome-edited crops

Science.gov (United States)

Araki, Motoko

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT The global agricultural landscape regarding the commercial cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops is mosaic. Meanwhile, a new plant breeding technique, genome editing is expected to make genetic engineering-mediated crop breeding more socially acceptable because it can be used to develop crop varieties without introducing transgenes, which have hampered the regulatory review and public acceptance of GM crops. The present study revealed that product- and process-based concepts have been implemented to regulate GM crops in 30 countries. Moreover, this study analyzed the regulatory responses to genome-edited crops in the USA, Argentina, Sweden and New Zealand. The findings suggested that countries will likely be divided in their policies on genome-edited crops: Some will deregulate transgene-free crops, while others will regulate all types of crops that have been modified by genome editing. These implications are discussed from the viewpoint of public acceptance. PMID:27960622

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

Science.gov (United States)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

LANDSCAPE PATTERN VERSUS FARMING DEVELOPMENT. THE CASE OF THE POST-MARL HOLLOWS (PMH LANDSCAPE IN POLAND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iwona MARKUSZEWSKA

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the presence of unique landscape elements (post-marl hollows in an intensively operated farming region. The selected case study (the environs of Krotoszyn in the Wielkopolska region, Poland represents an example of a human-designed landscape in which post-marl hollows (PMH were created as a consequence of the soil-marling process. PMH are vital ecological habitats which have an influence on the high quality of the rural landscape. Currently, as PMH are undergoing the vanishing process, it seems essential to find a solution to maintain these unique landscape elements. The main aim of this paper is to analyse human-nature relationships during the current changes taking place in the agricultural landscape in order to get the answer to the question: how is this affecting the PMH? The study evaluates farmers’ pro-environmental behaviour and defines their identity with the local landscape that has been beneficial in predicting the forthcoming shaping of the landscape. The data describing the PMH were collected in the years 1998-2016, while conducting cartographic analysis, a literature review and repetitive field research. Additionally, remote sensing and geoportal database were used to analyse the PMH changes. Also, interviews and discussions with farmers and representatives of the local administrative body were conducted. Results indicated that local rural communities are little concerned about the environment, particularly when it pertains to the issue of conservation of the local landscape heritage (i.e. PMH. In addition, the lack of support from the administrative body makes more difficult the opportunity to maintain a unique landscape pattern, as described in this paper.

Financial landscapes reconstructed: the fine art of mapping development.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouman, F.J.A.; Hospes, O.

1994-01-01

This book contains a collection of readings on financial intermediation for which the landscape is designedly chosen as a metaphor, to stimulate reflection on all the critical dimensions of financial and quasi-financial services in the processes of development. The metaphor is not only used to

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

Development of a catchment/landscape erosion prediction model (MINErosion 4) for post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Khalifa, Ashraf; Yu, Bofu; Ghadiri, Hossain; Carroll, Chris; So, Hwat-Bing

2010-05-01

Open-cut coal mining in Central Queensland involves the breaking up of overburden that overlies the coal seams using explosives, followed by removal with draglines which results in the formation of extensive overburden spoil-piles with steep slopes at the angle of repose (approximately 75 % or 37o). These spoil-piles are found in long multiple rows, with heights of up to 60 or 70 m above the original landscapes. They are generally highly saline and dispersive and hence highly erosive. Legislation requires that these spoil-piles be rehabilitated into a stable self sustaining ecosystem with no off-site pollution. The first stage in the rehabilitation of these landscapes is the lowering of slopes to create a landscape that is stable against geotechnical failure and erosion. This is followed by revegetation generally with grasses as pioneer vegetation to further reduce erosion and a mixture of native shrubs and trees. Minimizing erosion and excessive on-site discharges of sediment into the working areas may result in the temporary cessation of mining operation with significant financial consequences, while off site discharges may breach the mining lease conditions. The average cost of rehabilitation is approximately 22,000 per ha. With more than 50,000 ha of such spoil-piles in Queensland at present, the total cost of rehabilitation facing the industry is very high. Most of this comprised the cost of reshaping the landscape, largely associated with the amount of material movement necessary to achieve the desired landscape. Since soil and spoil-piles vary greatly in their erodibilities, a hillslope erosion model MINErosion 3 (this conference) was developed to determine a cost effective combination of slope length, slope gradient and vegetation that will result in acceptable rates of erosion. This model was useful to determine the design parameters for the construction of a suitable post-mining landscape that meets the required erosion criteria. However, the mining

Trends in scenario development methodologies and integration in NUMO's approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebashi, Takeshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Kawamura, Hideki; Gaus, Irina; Vomvoris, Stratis; Martin, Andrew J.; Smith, Paul

2011-01-01

The development of scenarios for quantitative or qualitative analysis is a key element of the assessment of the safety of geological disposal systems. As an outcome of an international workshop attended by European and the Japanese implementers, a number of features common to current methodologies could be identified, as well as trends in their evolution over time. In the late nineties, scenario development was often described as a bottom-up process, whereby scenarios were said to be developed in essence from FEP databases. Nowadays, it is recognised that, in practice, the approaches actually adopted are better described as top-down or 'hybrid', taking as their starting point an integrated (top-down) understanding of the system under consideration including uncertainties in initial state, sometimes assisted by the development of 'storyboards'. A bottom-up element remains (hence the term 'hybrid') to the extent that FEP databases or FEP catalogues (including interactions) are still used, but the focus is generally on completeness checking, which occurs parallel to the main assessment process. Recent advances focus on the consistent treatment of uncertainties throughout the safety assessment and on the integration of operational safety and long term safety. (author)

Multi-taxa integrated landscape genetics for zoonotic infectious diseases: deciphering variables influencing disease emergence.

Science.gov (United States)

Leo, Sarah S T; Gonzalez, Andrew; Millien, Virginie

2016-05-01

Zoonotic disease transmission systems involve sets of species interacting with each other and their environment. This complexity impedes development of disease monitoring and control programs that require reliable identification of spatial and biotic variables and mechanisms facilitating disease emergence. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a framework that simultaneously examines all species involved in disease emergence by integrating concepts and methods from population genetics, landscape ecology, and spatial statistics. Multi-taxa integrated landscape genetics (MTILG) can reveal how interspecific interactions and landscape variables influence disease emergence patterns. We test the potential of our MTILG-based framework by modelling the emergence of a disease system across multiple species dispersal, interspecific interaction, and landscape scenarios. Our simulations showed that both interspecific-dependent dispersal patterns and landscape characteristics significantly influenced disease spread. Using our framework, we were able to detect statistically similar inter-population genetic differences and highly correlated spatial genetic patterns that imply species-dependent dispersal. Additionally, species that were assigned coupled-dispersal patterns were affected to the same degree by similar landscape variables. This study underlines the importance of an integrated approach to investigating emergence of disease systems. MTILG is a robust approach for such studies and can identify potential avenues for targeted disease management strategies.

Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—A case study in partnership development

Science.gov (United States)

D'Erchia, Frank

2016-10-21

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) is a successful example of collaboration between science and natural resource management at the landscape scale. In southwestern Wyoming, expanding energy and mineral development, urban growth, and other changes in land use over recent decades, combined with landscape-scale drivers such as climate change and invasive species, have presented compelling challenges to resource managers and a diverse group of Federal, State, industry, and non-governmental organizations, as well as citizen stakeholders. To address these challenges, the WLCI was established as a collaborative forum and interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. About a decade after being established, this report documents the establishment and history of the WLCI, focusing on the path to success of the initiative and providing insights and details that may be useful in developing similar partnerships in other locations. Not merely retrospective, the elements of the WLCI that are presented herein are still in play, still evolving, and still contributing to the resolution of compelling conservation challenges in the Western United States.The U.S. Geological Survey has developed many successful longstanding partnerships, of which the WLCI is one example.“As the Nation’s largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues, and problems. The diversity of our scientific expertise enables us to carry out large-scale, multi-disciplinary investigations and provide impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016).

Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

OpenAIRE

Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

2013-01-01

The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional a...

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa M Adams

Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Montiel Molina

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propagation on different spatial and temporal scales. This is basically a landscape concept linking territorial dynamics (related to ecosystem evolution and settlement patterns with a fire regime (ignition causes; spread patterns; fire frequency, severity, extent and seasonality. The aim of this article is to identify and characterize these land-based fire scenarios in Spain on a national and regional scale, using a GIS-based methodology to perform a spatial analysis of the area attributes of homogenous fire spread patterns. To do this, the main variables considered are: land use/land cover, fuel load and recent fire history. The final objective is to reduce territorial vulnerability to forest wildfires and facilitate the adaptation of fire policies and land management systems to current challenges of preparedness and uncertainty management.

Spatial modeling of personalized exposure dynamics: the case of pesticide use in small-scale agricultural production landscapes of the developing world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Binder Claudia R

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Pesticide poisoning is a global health issue with the largest impacts in the developing countries where residential and small-scale agricultural areas are often integrated and pesticides sprayed manually. To reduce health risks from pesticide exposure approaches for personalized exposure assessment (PEA are needed. We present a conceptual framework to develop a spatial individual-based model (IBM prototype for assessing potential exposure of farm-workers conducting small-scale agricultural production, which accounts for a considerable portion of global food crop production. Our approach accounts for dynamics in the contaminant distributions in the environment, as well as patterns of movement and activities performed on an individual level under different safety scenarios. We demonstrate a first prototype using data from a study area in a rural part of Colombia, South America. Results Different safety scenarios of PEA were run by including weighting schemes for activities performed under different safety conditions. We examined the sensitivity of individual exposure estimates to varying patterns of pesticide application and varying individual patterns of movement. This resulted in a considerable variation in estimates of magnitude, frequency and duration of exposure over the model runs for each individual as well as between individuals. These findings indicate the influence of patterns of pesticide application, individual spatial patterns of movement as well as safety conditions on personalized exposure in the agricultural production landscape that is the focus of our research. Conclusion This approach represents a conceptual framework for developing individual based models to carry out PEA in small-scale agricultural settings in the developing world based on individual patterns of movement, safety conditions, and dynamic contaminant distributions. The results of our analysis indicate our prototype model is sufficiently

Methods for the quantification of GHG emissions at the landscape level for developing countries in smallholder contexts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milne, Eleanor; Easter, Mark; Ogle, Stephen; Denef, Karolien; Paustian, Keith; Neufeldt, Henry; Rosenstock, Todd; Smalligan, Mike; Cerri, Carlos Eduardo; Malin, Daniella; Bernoux, Martial; Casarim, Felipe; Pearson, Timothy; Bird, David Neil; Steglich, Evelyn; Ostwald, Madelene

2013-01-01

Landscape scale quantification enables farmers to pool resources and expertise. However, the problem remains of how to quantify these gains. This article considers current greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods that can be used in a landscape scale analysis in terms of relevance to areas dominated by smallholders in developing countries. In landscape scale carbon accounting frameworks, measurements are an essential element. Sampling strategies need careful design to account for all pools/fluxes and to ensure judicious use of resources. Models can be used to scale-up measurements and fill data gaps. In recent years a number of accessible models and calculators have been developed which can be used at the landscape scale in developing country areas. Some are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method and others on dynamic ecosystem models. They have been developed for a range of different purposes and therefore vary in terms of accuracy and usability. Landscape scale assessments of GHGs require a combination of ground sampling, use of data from census, remote sensing (RS) or other sources and modelling. Fitting of all of these aspects together needs to be performed carefully to minimize uncertainties and maximize the use of scarce resources. This is especially true in heterogeneous landscapes dominated by smallholders in developing countries. (letter)

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Angelieri, Cintia Camila Silva; Adams-Hosking, Christine; Ferraz, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros; de Souza, Marcelo Pereira; McAlpine, Clive Alexander

2016-01-01

A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma's habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species' occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental

A deterministic method for estimating free energy genetic network landscapes with applications to cell commitment and reprogramming paths.

Science.gov (United States)

Olariu, Victor; Manesso, Erica; Peterson, Carsten

2017-06-01

Depicting developmental processes as movements in free energy genetic landscapes is an illustrative tool. However, exploring such landscapes to obtain quantitative or even qualitative predictions is hampered by the lack of free energy functions corresponding to the biochemical Michaelis-Menten or Hill rate equations for the dynamics. Being armed with energy landscapes defined by a network and its interactions would open up the possibility of swiftly identifying cell states and computing optimal paths, including those of cell reprogramming, thereby avoiding exhaustive trial-and-error simulations with rate equations for different parameter sets. It turns out that sigmoidal rate equations do have approximate free energy associations. With this replacement of rate equations, we develop a deterministic method for estimating the free energy surfaces of systems of interacting genes at different noise levels or temperatures. Once such free energy landscape estimates have been established, we adapt a shortest path algorithm to determine optimal routes in the landscapes. We explore the method on three circuits for haematopoiesis and embryonic stem cell development for commitment and reprogramming scenarios and illustrate how the method can be used to determine sequential steps for onsets of external factors, essential for efficient reprogramming.

Urban landscape infrastructures: Designing operative landscape structures for the built environment

OpenAIRE

Nijhuis, S.; Jauslin, D.T.

2015-01-01

This paper explores infrastructure as a type of landscape and landscape as a type of infrastructure. The hybridisation of the two concepts, landscape and infrastructure, seeks to redefine infrastructure beyond its strictly utilitarian definition, while allowing design disciplines to gain operative force in territorial transformation processes. This paper aims to put forward urban landscape infrastructures as a design concept, considering them as armatures for urban development and for facilit...

Scenarios for ITS telecommunications technologies development in Poland for the years 2007-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazimierz BARTCZAK

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The article shows four scenarios for the development of ITS communications technologies in Poland for the years 2007-2013. Global Business Network methodology is used to make up the scenarios. The basic dimensions of the scenarios are (a type of sectors in the national economy (public vs. private, (b type of communications technology (wireline vs. wireless. The scenarios present possible futures.

Synergetic Development Assessment of Urban River System Landscapes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingya Qiao

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This paper presents Synergetic Development Assessment (SDA as a methodology to evaluate the environmental, economic, and social performance of an urban river system landscape from the perspective of sustainability. SDA is based on synergetics and its “order parameters” theory, proposed as a science to study the self-organization of complex systems. A case study of river system landscapes in China was carried out by, first, simplifying the composite system into three subsystems: environmental, economic, and social; then, going on to construct a hierarchical structure to explore the order parameters as the evaluation index. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to get the weight of the evaluation index to complete the assessment index system. At the same time, a Sequential Synergy Degree Model was built to accomplish the SDA. We find that from 2005 to 2015, the order degree of the environmental subsystem developed slowly, with fluctuations, and that river pattern is the key factor. Meanwhile, the order degree of the economic subsystem fluctuated widely, which significantly depended on the changing value of water resources, and the order degree of social subsystem improved continuously, with social culture lagging far behind. As a whole, the synergy degree of the composite system developed orderly at a corresponding low level, which was in low synergy from 2005 to 2009 and then in general synergy up to 2015.

Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

2015-12-01

Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Global change and landscape structure in Ukraine: Ecological and socio-economic implications

Science.gov (United States)

Shvidenko, Anatoly; Lakyda, Petro; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Vasylyshyn, Roman; Marchuk, Yuiry

2013-04-01

The current land cover of Ukraine is very heterogeneous. While on average forest covers 15.9% of its land, substantial part of the country is basically forestless. The agricultural potential of Ukraine is high. However, in spite of the fact that 68% of the arable land in Ukraine consists of the famous Ukrainian black soils (chernozems), the quality of the country's arable land (69.5% of the total land) is not satisfactory. The country has the highest over the globe share of the tilled land (~80% of the agricultural land in the country) and processes of soil erosion impact about one third of arable land. Air pollution, soil and water contamination are widespread. Substantial problems are generated by the Chernobyl disaster. Overall, about half of the country is in the critical and pre-critical ecological situation. Climatic predictions suppose that the country will live in much warmer and drier climate by end of this century. Taking into account that major pat of Ukraine lies in the xeric belt, the expected climatic change generates divers risks for both environment and vegetation ecosystems of the country, particularly for forests and agriculture. The presentation considers the role of forests and trees outside of forests in transition to integrated ecosystem management and sustainable structure of landscapes within two scenarios of socio-economic development for the next 20 yeas. The "business-as-usual" scenario prolongs tendencies of dynamics of the land-use and forest sectors during the last 20 years. This scenario leads to further deterioration of quality of land and environment in Ukraine. The "progressive" scenario is considered as a crucial initial step of adaptation to climatic change and includes a system of pressing measures which are needed to decrease destructive processes that are observed at the landscape level. It is shown that it would require development of 1.62 M ha of protective forests including 0.62 M ha on unstable elements of landscapes

Understanding the whole city as landscape. A multivariate approach to urban landscape morphology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Stiles

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The European Landscape Convention implies a requirement for signatory states to identify their urban landscapes which goes beyond the traditional focus on individual parks and green spaces and the links between them. Landscape ecological approaches can provide a useful model for identifying urban landscape types across a whole territory, but the variables relevant for urban landscapes are very different to those usually addressing rural areas. This paper presents an approach to classifying the urban landscape of Vienna that was developed in a research project funded by the Austrian Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology: ‘Urban Fabric and Microclimate Response’. Nine landscape types and a number of sub-types were defined, using a multivariate statistical approach which takes account of both morphological and urban climate related variables. Although the variables were selected to objectively reflect the factors that could best represent the urban climatic characteristics of the urban landscape, the results also provided a widely plausible representation of the structure of the city’s landscapes. Selected examples of the landscape types that were defined in this way were used both to simulate current microclimatic conditions and also to model the effects of possible climatic amelioration measures. Finally the paper looks forward to developing a more general-purpose urban landscape typology that allows investigating a much broader complex of urban landscape functions.

What can a numerical landscape evolution model tell us about the evolution of a real landscape? Two examples of modeling a real landscape without recreating it

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparini, N. M.; Whipple, K. X.; Willenbring, J.; Crosby, B. T.; Brocard, G. Y.

2013-12-01

Numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) offer us the unique opportunity to watch a landscape evolve under any set of environmental forcings that we can quantify. The possibilities for using LEMs are infinite, but complications arise when trying to model a real landscape. Specifically, numerical models cannot recreate every aspect of a real landscape because exact initial conditions are unknown, there will always be gaps in the known tectonic and climatic history, and the geomorphic transport laws that govern redistribution of mass due to surface processes will always be a simplified representation of the actual process. Yet, even with these constraints, numerical models remain the only tool that offers us the potential to explore a limitless range of evolutionary scenarios, allowing us to, at the very least, identify possible drivers responsible for the morphology of the current landscape, and just as importantly, rule out others. Here we highlight two examples in which we use a numerical model to explore the signature of different forcings on landscape morphology and erosion patterns. In the first landscape, the Northern Bolivian Andes, the relative imprint of rock uplift and precipitation patterns on landscape morphology is widely contested. We use the CHILD LEM to systematically vary climate and tectonics and quantify their fingerprints on channel profiles across a steep mountain front. We find that rock uplift and precipitation patterns in this landscape and others can be teased out by examining channel profiles of variably sized catchments that drain different parts of the topography. In the second landscape, the South Fork Eel River (SFER), northern California, USA, the tectonic history is relatively well known; a wave of rock uplift swept through the watershed from headwaters to outlet, perturbing the landscape and sending a wave of bedrock incision upstream. Nine millennial-scale erosion rates from along the mainstem of the river illustrate a pattern of

Development of Landscape Dose Factors for dose assessments in SR-Can

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Avila, Rodolfo; Ekstroem, Per-Anders [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden); Kautsky, Ulrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

2006-08-15

In previous safety assessments Ecosystem Dose Factors (EDFs), were derived from estimates of doses to the most exposed group resulting from constant unit radionuclide release rates over 10,000 years to various ecosystem types, e.g. mires, agricultural lands, lakes and marine ecosystems. A number of limitations of the EDF approach have been identified. The objectives of this report is to further develop the EDF approach, in order to resolve the identified limitations, and to use the improved approach for deriving Dose Conversion Factors for use in the SR-Can risk assessments. The Dose Conversion Factors derived in this report are named Landscape Dose Factors (LDFs). It involves modelling the fate of the radionuclides in the whole landscape, which develops from a sea to a inland situation during 20,000 years. Both candidate sites studies in SR-Can, Forsmark and Laxemar, are included in the study. As a basis for the modelling, the period starting at the beginning of the last interglacial (8,000 BC) is used, over which releases from a hypothetical repository were assumed to take place. For the present temperate period, the overall development of the biosphere at each site is outlined in a 1,000 year perspective and beyond, essentially based on the ongoing shoreline displacement and the understanding on the impact this has on the biosphere. The past development, i.e. from deglaciation to the present time, is inferred from geological records and associated reconstructions of the shore-line. For each time step of 1,000 years, the landscape at the site is described as a number of interconnected biosphere objects constituting an integrated landscape model of each site. The water fluxes through the objects were estimated from the average run-off at the site, the areas of the objects and their associated catchment areas. Radionuclides in both dissolved and particulate forms were considered in the transport calculations. The transformation between ecosystems was modelled as

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Design and development of driving simulator scenarios for road validation studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dols Ruiz, J.F.

2016-07-01

In recent years, the number of road-based studies using driving simulators is growing significantly. This allows evaluating controlled situations that otherwise would require disproportionate observations in time and/or cost. The Institute of Design and Manufacturing (IDF) of the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) has developed, in collaboration with the Engineering Research Group Highway (GIIC) of the UPV, a low cost simulator that allows rapid implementation and effectively a new methodology for validation studies of different roads through the implementation in the simulator scenarios of existing roads. This methodology allows the development of new scenarios based on the analysis of a layers-file system. Each layer includes different information from the road, such as mapping, geometry, signaling, aerial photos, etc. The creation of the simulated scenario is very fast based on the geometric design software, making it easier to consulting firms using the system that can evaluate and audit a particular route, obtaining reliable conclusions at minimal cost, even if the road is not actually built. This paper describes the basic structure of the layers generated for developing scenarios and guidelines for the implementation thereof. Finally the application of this methodology to a case of success will be described. (Author)

Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

1999-01-01

Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1992-12-31

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07

For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kok, K.; Biggs, R.; Zurek, M.

2007-01-01

Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple

Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Caille

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

Reheating-volume measure in the string theory landscape

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winitzki, Sergei

2008-01-01

I recently proposed the ''reheating-volume'' (RV) prescription as a possible solution to the measure problem in ''multiverse'' cosmology. The goal of this work is to extend the RV measure to scenarios involving bubble nucleation, such as the string theory landscape. In the spirit of the RV prescription, I propose to calculate the distribution of observable quantities in a landscape that is conditioned in probability to nucleate a finite total number of bubbles to the future of an initial bubble. A general formula for the relative number of bubbles of different types can be derived. I show that the RV measure is well defined and independent of the choice of the initial bubble type, as long as that type supports further bubble nucleation. Applying the RV measure to a generic landscape, I find that the abundance of Boltzmann brains is always negligibly small compared with the abundance of ordinary observers in the bubbles of the same type. As an illustration, I present explicit results for a toy landscape containing four vacuum states, and for landscapes with a single high-energy vacuum and a large number of low-energy vacua.

Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2011-12-01

Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of

Forest landscape analysis and design: a process for developing and implementing land management objectives for landscape patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Nancy Diaz; Dean. Apostol

1992-01-01

This publication presents a Landscape Design and Analysis Process, along with some simple methods and tools for describing landscapes and their function. The information is qualitative in nature and highlights basic concepts, but does not address landscape ecology in great depth. Readers are encouraged to consult the list of selected references in Chapter 2 if they...

Beyond Landscape MacArchitecture: new languages, new landscapes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Rackham

1996-03-01

Full Text Available The sine qua non of landscape architecture is respect for the genius loci, but even in the landscape, as in architecture and society more generally, a process of cultural homogenisation has been taking place. Against this process, a resurgence of interest in minority languages in Europe can be seen as an assertion of pride, and a desire to preserve difference. In Scotland, landscape architects are attempting to reinterpret Scottish and northern European urban design influences and materials: in effect to develop a new regional dialect for the new landscapes. Rooted in sound design principles and materials which respond to and reflect the climate, way of life and traditions of the place, design languages can communicate effectively about cultural values and differences.

Developing High-Fidelity Health Care Simulation Scenarios: A Guide for Educators and Professionals

Science.gov (United States)

Alinier, Guillaume

2011-01-01

The development of appropriate scenarios is critical in high-fidelity simulation training. They need to be developed to address specific learning objectives, while not preventing other learning points from emerging. Buying a patient simulator, finding a volunteer to act as the patient, or even obtaining ready-made scenarios from another simulation…

Sample design effects in landscape genetics

Science.gov (United States)

Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fedy, Bradley C.; Landguth, Erin L.

2012-01-01

An important research gap in landscape genetics is the impact of different field sampling designs on the ability to detect the effects of landscape pattern on gene flow. We evaluated how five different sampling regimes (random, linear, systematic, cluster, and single study site) affected the probability of correctly identifying the generating landscape process of population structure. Sampling regimes were chosen to represent a suite of designs common in field studies. We used genetic data generated from a spatially-explicit, individual-based program and simulated gene flow in a continuous population across a landscape with gradual spatial changes in resistance to movement. Additionally, we evaluated the sampling regimes using realistic and obtainable number of loci (10 and 20), number of alleles per locus (5 and 10), number of individuals sampled (10-300), and generational time after the landscape was introduced (20 and 400). For a simulated continuously distributed species, we found that random, linear, and systematic sampling regimes performed well with high sample sizes (>200), levels of polymorphism (10 alleles per locus), and number of molecular markers (20). The cluster and single study site sampling regimes were not able to correctly identify the generating process under any conditions and thus, are not advisable strategies for scenarios similar to our simulations. Our research emphasizes the importance of sampling data at ecologically appropriate spatial and temporal scales and suggests careful consideration for sampling near landscape components that are likely to most influence the genetic structure of the species. In addition, simulating sampling designs a priori could help guide filed data collection efforts.

Legible landscapes: the use of narratives in landscape design for leisure and tourism in Dutch cultural landscapes.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brinkhuijsen, M.

2007-01-01

Nowadays, leisure and tourism have become significant factors in rural development, which is manifest in the ‘commodification’ of landscapes. However, leisure and tourist markets are very competitive and consumers increasingly demand high quality, unique and memorable experiences. Landscape

Developing scenarios for the water sector institutional landscape to develop effective responses to water quality challenges in a semi-arid region

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Claassen, Marius

2010-09-01

Full Text Available 2Mind of a Fox, 3WRC E-mail: mclaasse@csir.co.za IntroductIon Knowledge about key drivers and uncertainties of the future can provide information for making better decisions in the present. A deeper understanding of key drivers and trajectories...) South African National Research and Technology Foresight Project. Pretoria 3. Daum J (2001) How Scenario Planning Can Significantly Reduce Strategic Risks and Boost Value in the Innovation Chain. The New Economy Analyst Report - 8 September 4...

A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, In Hyo [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Won [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (United States)

2016-10-15

Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system.

A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, In Hyo; Son, Han Seong; Kim, Si Won; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system

Challenges and potentials in using alternative landscape futures during climate change: A literature review and survey study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Rastandeh

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on the feasibility of applying alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning during climate change to provide a wider perspective and deeper understanding of this approach for better use and more effective application in the future. The study consists of a literature review and an analysis of recent applied projects carried out worldwide. In addition, an electronic survey was conducted from March to September 2014 to examine viewpoints on the use and application of this approach with reference to climate-change impacts. The survey participants were a group of highly experienced researchers from eighteen countries involved in at least one applied project since 2000 relating to this topic. After analysis of more than forty applied projects, the survey results were incorporated into the analysis to create a comprehensive picture regarding the potentials and limitations of alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning with particular attention to climate change. The findings show that this method is one of the most effective decision-making approaches for adopting landscape policies where landscapes change rapidly under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change. Nevertheless, there is a gap between the advances offered by the approach in various dimensions and the complexity of patterns, uncertainties and upheavals in landscapes due to climate-change impacts in the urbanising world. The research indicates that the approach opens up a great opportunity for decision-makers to expand their perspective and adopt appropriate landscape policies before reaching a point of no return from the sustainability point of view. Meanwhile, there are challenges and barriers in the application of alternative futures and scenario analysis for envisioning the landscapes influenced by climate change and urbanisation that should be pushed back. Although informative, this research raises new questions about this

Tool or Toy? Virtual Globes in Landscape Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. J. Sheppard

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Virtual globes, i.e., geobrowsers that integrate multi-scale and temporal data from various sources and are based on a globe metaphor, have developed into serious tools that practitioners and various stakeholders in landscape and community planning have started using. Although these tools originate from Geographic Information Systems (GIS, they have become a different, potentially interactive and public tool set, with their own specific limitations and new opportunities. Expectations regarding their utility as planning and community engagement tools are high, but are tempered by both technical limitations and ethical issues [1,2]. Two grassroots campaigns and a collaborative visioning process, the Kimberley Climate Adaptation Project case study (British Columbia, illustrate and broaden our understanding of the potential benefits and limitations associated with the use of virtual globes in participatory planning initiatives. Based on observations, questionnaires and in-depth interviews with stakeholders and community members using an interactive 3D model of regional climate change vulnerabilities, potential impacts, and possible adaptation and mitigation scenarios in Kimberley, the benefits and limitations of virtual globes as a tool for participatory landscape planning are discussed. The findings suggest that virtual globes can facilitate access to geospatial information, raise awareness, and provide a more representative virtual landscape than static visualizations. However, landscape is not equally representative at all scales, and not all types of users seem to benefit equally from the tool. The risks of misinterpretation can be managed by integrating the application and interpretation of virtual globes into face-to-face planning processes.

Evidence and opportunities for integrating landscape ecology into natural resource planning across multiple-use landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Trammel, E. Jamie; Carter, Sarah; Haby, Travis S.; Taylor, Jason J.

2018-01-01

Enhancing natural resource management has been a focus of landscape ecology since its inception, but numerous authors argue that landscape ecology has not yet been effective in achieving the underlying goal of planning and designing sustainable landscapes. We developed nine questions reflecting the application of fundamental research topics in landscape ecology to the landscape planning process and reviewed two recent landscape-scale plans in western North America for evidence of these concepts in plan decisions. Both plans considered multiple resources, uses, and values, including energy development, recreation, conservation, and protection of cultural and historic resources. We found that land use change and multiscale perspectives of resource uses and values were very often apparent in planning decisions. Pattern-process relationships, connectivity and fragmentation, ecosystem services, landscape history, and climate change were reflected less frequently. Landscape sustainability was considered only once in the 295 decisions reviewed, and outputs of landscape models were not referenced. We suggest six actionable opportunities for further integrating landscape ecology concepts into landscape planning efforts: 1) use landscape sustainability as an overarching goal, 2) adopt a broad ecosystem services framework, 3) explore the role of landscape history more comprehensively, 4) regularly consider and accommodate potential effects of climate change, 5) use landscape models to support plan decisions, and 6) promote a greater presence of landscape ecologists within agencies that manage large land bases and encourage active involvement in agency planning efforts. Together these actions may improve the defensibility, durability, and sustainability of landscape plan decisions.

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

LORICA - A new model for linking landscape and soil profile evolution: Development and sensitivity analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Temme, A.J.A.M.; Vanwalleghem, T.

2016-01-01

Soils and landscapes evolve in tandem. Landscape position is a strong determinant of vertical soil development, which has often been formalized in the catena concept. At the same time, soil properties are strong determinants of geomorphic processes such as overland erosion, landsliding and creep. We

[Application of spatially explicit landscape model in soil loss study in Huzhong area].

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Chonggang; Hu, Yuanman; Chang, Yu; Li, Xiuzhen; Bu, Renchang; He, Hongshi; Leng, Wenfang

2004-10-01

Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been widely used to estimate the average annual soil loss. In most of the previous work on soil loss evaluation on forestland, cover management factor was calculated from the static forest landscape. The advent of spatially explicit forest landscape model in the last decade, which explicitly simulates the forest succession dynamics under natural and anthropogenic disturbances (fire, wind, harvest and so on) on heterogeneous landscape, makes it possible to take into consideration the change of forest cover, and to dynamically simulate the soil loss in different year (e.g. 10 years and 20 years after current year). In this study, we linked a spatially explicit landscape model (LANDIS) with USLE to simulate the soil loss dynamics under two scenarios: fire and no harvest, fire and harvest. We also simulated the soil loss with no fire and no harvest as a control. The results showed that soil loss varied periodically with simulation year, and the amplitude of change was the lowest under the control scenario and the highest under the fire and no harvest scenario. The effect of harvest on soil loss could not be easily identified on the map; however, the cumulative effect of harvest on soil loss was larger than that of fire. Decreasing the harvest area and the percent of bare soil increased by harvest could significantly reduce soil loss, but had no significant effects on the dynamic of soil loss. Although harvest increased the annual soil loss, it tended to decrease the variability of soil loss between different simulation years.

The alpha activity of soils in relation to landscape development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pepper, R G; Quirk, J P [Western Australia Univ., Nedlands. Dept. of Soil Science and Plant Nutrition

1976-02-01

The alpha activity of soils and the degree of the equilibrium of the thorium series has been related to the age of soils developed on a truncated laterite landscape in southwestern Australia. The uplift of the old lateritic plateau has formed a sequence of erosional and depositional surfaces which form the parent materials of the present-day soils. These surfaces because of their different relative ages have been subjected to different degrees of weathering and leaching. The alpha activity of the soils formed on these different landscape surfaces is influenced firstly by the amount of weathering that the surface has undergone, and secondly by the degree of leaching that the soil has undergone as evidenced by profile development. It has been found that the younger soils have higher alpha activities with the thorium series tending more towards equilibrium when compared with older soils, where the alpha activity is lower due to the leaching of the daughter nuclides from the profile.

Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

2007-12-01

There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

Development of Accident Scenarios and Quantification Methodology for RAON Accelerator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yongjin; Jae, Moosung

2014-01-01

The RIsp (Rare Isotope Science Project) plans to provide neutron-rich isotopes (RIs) and stable heavy ion beams. The accelerator is defined as radiation production system according to Nuclear Safety Law. Therefore, it needs strict operate procedures and safety assurance to prevent radiation exposure. In order to satisfy this condition, there is a need for evaluating potential risk of accelerator from the design stage itself. Though some of PSA researches have been conducted for accelerator, most of them focus on not general accident sequence but simple explanation of accident. In this paper, general accident scenarios are developed by Event Tree and deduce new quantification methodology of Event Tree. In this study, some initial events, which may occur in the accelerator, are selected. Using selected initial events, the accident scenarios of accelerator facility are developed with Event Tree. These results can be used as basic data of the accelerator for future risk assessments. After analyzing the probability of each heading, it is possible to conduct quantification and evaluate the significance of the accident result. If there is a development of the accident scenario for external events, risk assessment of entire accelerator facility will be completed. To reduce the uncertainty of the Event Tree, it is possible to produce a reliable data via the presented quantification techniques

Projected gains and losses of wildlife habitat from bioenergy-induced landscape change

Science.gov (United States)

Tarr, Nathan M.; Rubino, Matthew J.; Costanza, Jennifer K.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.; Abt, Robert C.

2016-01-01

Domestic and foreign renewable energy targets and financial incentives have increased demand for woody biomass and bioenergy in the southeastern United States. This demand is expected to be met through purpose-grown agricultural bioenergy crops, short-rotation tree plantations, thinning and harvest of planted and natural forests, and forest harvest residues. With results from a forest economics model, spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models, and species–habitat models, we projected change in habitat amount for 16 wildlife species caused by meeting a renewable fuel target and expected demand for wood pellets in North Carolina, USA. We projected changes over 40 years under a baseline ‘business-as-usual’ scenario without bioenergy production and five scenarios with unique feedstock portfolios. Bioenergy demand had potential to influence trends in habitat availability for some species in our study area. We found variation in impacts among species, and no scenario was the ‘best’ or ‘worst’ across all species. Our models projected that shrub-associated species would gain habitat under some scenarios because of increases in the amount of regenerating forests on the landscape, while species restricted to mature forests would lose habitat. Some forest species could also lose habitat from the conversion of forests on marginal soils to purpose-grown feedstocks. The conversion of agricultural lands on marginal soils to purpose-grown feedstocks increased habitat losses for one species with strong associations with pasture, which is being lost to urbanization in our study region. Our results indicate that landscape-scale impacts on wildlife habitat will vary among species and depend upon the bioenergy feedstock portfolio. Therefore, decisions about bioenergy and wildlife will likely involve trade-offs among wildlife species, and the choice of focal species is likely to affect the results of landscape-scale assessments. We offer general principals

Developing, choosing and using landscape evolution models to inform field-based landscape reconstruction studies : Developing, choosing and using landscape evolution models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Temme, A.j.a.m.; Armitage, J.; Attal, M.; Van Gorp, W.; Coulthard, T.j.; Schoorl, J.m.

2017-01-01

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) are an increasingly popular resource for geomorphologists as they can operate as virtual laboratories where the implications of hypotheses about processes over human to geological timescales can be visualized at spatial scales from catchments to mountain ranges.

Experimental evidence of dynamic re-organization of evolving landscapes under changing climatic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Zaliapin, Ilya; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

2015-04-01

The aim of this study is to better understand the dynamic re-organization of an evolving landscape under a scenario of changing climatic forcing for improving our knowledge of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions and developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into the previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. From a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, we demonstrate the strikingly different spatial patterns of landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is "stretched" compared to that under TS such as to match the total volume and PDF of erosional and depositional amounts. We quantify the spatial coupling of hillslopes and channels and demonstrate that hillslopes lead and channels follow in re-organizing the whole landscape under such an amplified precipitation regime.

Development of steady-state scenarios compatible with ITER-like wall conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Litaudon, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Arnoux, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Beurskens, M [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)] (and others)

2007-12-15

A key issue for steady-state tokamak operation is to determine the edge conditions that are compatible both with good core confinement and with the power handling and plasma exhaust capabilities of the plasma facing components (PFCs) and divertor systems. A quantitative response to this open question will provide a robust scientific basis for reliable extrapolation of present regimes to an ITER compatible steady-state scenario. In this context, the JET programme addressing steady-state operation is focused on the development of non-inductive, high confinement plasmas with the constraints imposed by the PFCs. A new beryllium main chamber wall and tungsten divertor together with an upgrade of the heating/fuelling capability are currently in preparation at JET. Operation at higher power with this ITER-like wall will impose new constraints on non-inductive scenarios. Recent experiments have focused on the preparation for this new phase of JET operation. In this paper, progress in the development of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios at JET is reviewed keeping this long-term objective in mind. The approach has consisted of addressing various critical issues separately during the 2006-2007 campaigns with a view to full scenario integration when the JET upgrades are complete. Regimes with internal transport barriers (ITBs) have been developed at q{sub 95} {approx} 5 and high triangularity, {delta} (relevant to the ITER steady-state demonstration) by applying more than 30 MW of additional heating power reaching {beta}{sub N} {approx} 2 at B{sub o} {approx} 3.1 T. Operating at higher {delta} has allowed the edge pedestal and core densities to be increased pushing the ion temperature closer to that of the electrons. Although not yet fully integrated into a performance enhancing ITB scenario, Neon seeding has been successfully explored to increase the radiated power fraction (up to 60%), providing significant reduction of target tile power fluxes (and hence temperatures) and

Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

Science.gov (United States)

Sherwin, P.

1981-01-01

All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

The Influence of Stratigraphic History on Landscape Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Forte, A. M.; Yanites, B.; Whipple, K. X.

2016-12-01

Variation in rock erodibility can play a significant role in landscape evolution. Using a version of the CHILD landscape evolution model that allows for variations in rock erodibility, we found surprisingly complex landscape evolution in simulations with simple, two unit stratigraphies with contrasting erodibility. This work indicated that the stratigraphic order of units in terms of erodibility, the orientation of the contact with respect to the main drainage direction, and the contact dip angle all have pronounced effects on landscape evolution. Here we expand that work to explore the implications of more complicated stratigraphies on landscape evolution. Introducing multiple units adds additional controls on landscape evolution, namely the thicknesses and relative erodibility of rock layers. In models with a sequence of five alternating hard and soft units embedded within arbitrarily thick over- and underlying units, the number of individual layers that noticeably influence landscape morphology decreases as the thickness of individual layers reduces. Contacts with soft rocks over hard produce the most noticeable effect in model output such as erosion rate and channel steepness. For large contrasts in erodibility of 25 m thick layers, only one soft over hard contact is clearly manifest in the landscape. Between 50 and 75 m, two such contacts are manifest, and by 100 m thickness, all three of these contacts are manifest. However, for a given thickness of layers, more units are manifest in the landscape as the erodibility contrast between units decreases. This is true even though the magnitude of landscape effects away from steady-state erosion rates or channel steepness also decrease with decreasing erodibility contrast. Finally, we explore suites of models with alternating layers reflecting either `hardening-' or `softening-upwards' stratigraphies and find that the two scenarios result in decidedly different landscape forms. Hardening-upwards sections produce a

Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural landscapes: quantification tools, policy development, and opportunities for improved management

Science.gov (United States)

Tonitto, C.; Gurwick, N. P.

2012-12-01

Policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) have promoted the development of agricultural management protocols to increase SOC storage and reduce GHG emissions. We review approaches for quantifying N2O flux from agricultural landscapes. We summarize the temporal and spatial extent of observations across representative soil classes, climate zones, cropping systems, and management scenarios. We review applications of simulation and empirical modeling approaches and compare validation outcomes across modeling tools. Subsequently, we review current model application in agricultural management protocols. In particular, we compare approaches adapted for compliance with the California Global Warming Solutions Act, the Alberta Climate Change and Emissions Management Act, and by the American Carbon Registry. In the absence of regional data to drive model development, policies that require GHG quantification often use simple empirical models based on highly aggregated data of N2O flux as a function of applied N - Tier 1 models according to IPCC categorization. As participants in development of protocols that could be used in carbon offset markets, we observed that stakeholders outside of the biogeochemistry community favored outcomes from simulation modeling (Tier 3) rather than empirical modeling (Tier 2). In contrast, scientific advisors were more accepting of outcomes based on statistical approaches that rely on local observations, and their views sometimes swayed policy practitioners over the course of policy development. Both Tier 2 and Tier 3 approaches have been implemented in current policy development, and it is important that the strengths and limitations of both approaches, in the face of available data, be well-understood by those drafting and adopting policies and protocols. The reliability of all models is contingent on sufficient observations for model development and validation. Simulation models applied without site-calibration generally

Adaptation of bird communities to farmland abandonment in a mountain landscape.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

João Lopes Guilherme

Full Text Available Widespread farmland abandonment has led to significant landscape transformations of many European mountain areas. These semi-natural multi-habitat landscapes are important reservoirs of biodiversity and their abandonment has important conservation implications. In multi-habitat landscapes the adaptation of communities depends on the differential affinity of the species to the available habitats. We use nested species-area relationships (SAR to model species richness patterns of bird communities across scales in a mountain landscape, in NW Portugal. We compare the performance of the classic-SAR and the countryside-SAR (i.e. multi-habitat models at the landscape scale, and compare species similarity decay (SSD at the regional scale. We find a considerable overlap of bird communities in the different land-uses (farmland, shrubland and oak forest at the landscape scale. Analysis of the classic and countryside SAR show that specialist species are strongly related to their favourite habitat. Farmland and shrubland have higher regional SSD compared to oak forests. However, this is due to the opportunistic use of farmlands by generalist birds. Forest specialists display significant regional turnover in oak forest. Overall, the countryside-SAR model had a better fit to the data showing that habitat composition determines species richness across scales. Finally, we use the countryside-SAR model to forecast bird diversity under four scenarios of land-use change. Farmland abandonment scenarios show little impact on bird diversity as the model predicts that the complete loss of farmland is less dramatic, in terms of species diversity loss, than the disappearance of native Galicio-Portuguese oak forest. The affinities of species to non-preferred habitats suggest that bird communities can adapt to land-use changes derived from farmland abandonment. Based on model predictions we argue that rewilding may be a suitable management option for many European mountain

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

A Classification of Landscape Services to Support Local Landscape Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Vallés-Planells

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The ecosystem services approach has been proven successful to measure the contributions of nature and greenery to human well-being. Ecosystems have an effect on quality of life, but landscapes also, as a broader concept, may contribute to people's well-being. The concept of landscape services, compared to ecosystem services, involves the social dimension of landscape and the spatial pattern resulting from both natural and human processes in the provision of benefits for human-well being. Our aim is to develop a classification for landscape services. The proposed typology of services is built on the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES and on a critical review of existing literature on human well-being dimensions, existing ecosystem service classifications, and landscape perception. Three themes of landscape services are defined, each divided into several groups: provisioning, regulation and maintenance, cultural and social life fulfillment, with the latter focusing on health, enjoyment, and personal and social fulfillment. A special emphasis is made on cultural services, which are especially important when applied to landscape and which have received less attention.

Development scenario for laser fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

1976-01-01

This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

Assessing soil erosion risk in the Tillabery landscape, Niger ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The results show that soil erosion output scenarios predict greater soil erosion in the study area from 2070 onwards. They suggest that human disturbance and topographic factors are the main impact factors in the affected areas. Key words: Tillabéry landscape (Niger), sheet and rill erosion modelling, data mining.

Geomorpho-Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Farabollini, Piero; Lugeri, Francesca; Amadio, Vittorio

2014-05-01

Landscape is the object of human perceptions, being the image of spatial organization of elements and structures: mankind lives the first approach with the environment, viewing and feeling the landscape. Many definitions of landscape have been given over time: in this case we refer to the Landscape defined as the result of interaction among physical, biotic and anthropic phenomena acting in a different spatial-temporal scale (Foreman & Godron) Following an Aristotelic approach in studying nature, we can assert that " Shape is synthesis": so it is possible to read the land features as the expression of the endogenous and exogenous processes that mould earth surfaces; moreover, Landscape is the result of the interaction of natural and cultural components, and conditions the spatial-temporal development of a region. The study of the Landscape offers results useful in order to promote sustainable development, ecotourism, enhancement of natural and cultural heritage, popularization of the scientific knowledge. In Italy, a very important GIS-based tool to represent the territory is the "Carta della Natura" ("Map of Nature", presently coordinated by the ISPRA) that aims at assessing the state of the whole Italian territory, analyzing Landscape. The methodology follows a holistic approach, taking into consideration all the components of a landscape and then integrating the information. Each individual landscape, studied at different scales, shows distinctive elements: structural, which depend on physical form and specific spatial organization; functional, which depend on relationships created between biotic and abiotic elements, and dynamic, which depend on the successive evolution of the structure. The identification of the landscape units, recognized at different scales of analysis, allows an evaluation of the state of the land, referring to the dual risk/resource which characterizes the Italian country. An interesting opportunity is to discover those areas of unusual

Assessing the Impact of Landscape Development on Ecosystem Services Value in Tropical Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Foo, Y. S.; Hashim, M.

2014-02-01

As development increases with demand, more forest lands are replaced with cropland, commercial plantation, and infrastructures for being able to accommodate the excessive growth in world's population. Environments were destroyed without considering their values in sustaining life on Earth.This phenomenon is still an ongoing scenario in most of the developing countries in the tropical region including Malaysia. Such unrestricted conversion may cause food or water crisis along with irreparable consequences to local and regional climate as the natural ecosystem is not only the main resources generator but also the climate stabilizer. Contrary to this, a study was conducted in Pahang Watershed, the largest watershed in Peninsular Malaysia with forest as the dominant land cover, to investigate the effect of landscape development on the ecosystem in terms of the erosion and ecosystem service value. Results of soil loss based on USLE indicated a direct relationship between development and total soil loss where total annual soil loss in year 2005 and 2010 showed a significant increase compare to year 2000. Meanwhile, developed and agricultural lands were discovered to be the main contributor whereas forest land produce the least soil loss (oil palm had become the main commercial plantation in current years, the commercial profit brought by oil palm still insufficient to cover losses referring to overall estimated ESVG due to the forest clearance and soil degradation. In addition, for a destroyed ecosystem to be equilibrium again requires years. Therefore, ESVG of the tropical forest are expected to increase continuously in future which mean that the roles of the forest in conserving the environment stabilization and sustainability of life are getting more critical.

Scenario development and evaluation for the NPP Krsko revised decommissioning program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levanat, I.; Lokner, V.; Subasic, D.

2004-01-01

In this first revision, several integrated scenarios of the NPP Krsko dismantling and waste management were developed and analyzed in order to estimate the decommissioning program (DP) costs and to propose an appropriate funding plan. Most dismantling technologies and cost estimates were derived from the original decommissioning plan adopted in 1996. The LILW disposal cost estimates, however, rely on the tunnel type facility design which was developed in Slovenia a few years ago, whereas the SF repository design for this DP was adapted from the Swedish deep disposal concept. The starting assumptions for this DP were that the LILW repository would be licensed by 2013, the NPP would be permanently shut down in 2023, and the SF repository would become available in 2030. The boundary conditions also specified that DP should first re-evaluate the SID strategy from the original plan (Strategy Immediate Dismantling with immediate SF disposal, but also with a long period of on-site decay storage for the activated components, so that it actually terminates only after 96 years), and then modify it to achieve truly prompt decommissioning in which all planned activities should be completed within about 15 years after the NPP shut-down. In addition, the option of SF export to a third country should be introduced in all DP scenarios, as a realistic alternative to SF disposal into the local repository (in Slovenia or in Croatia). And finally, dry storage of SF for some 30 years before disposal or export, in an independent installation on unspecified location, should be evaluated within the DP sensitivity analysis. After a thorough analysis of the original SID strategy, it became clear that substantial modifications would be necessary in order to meet the boundary conditions while complying with the specified design and technologies of the assumed LILW and SF disposal facilities. Therefore, a systematic procedure for development and financial evaluation of feasible scenarios was

Landscape Transformation under Global Environmental Change in Mediterranean Mountains: Agrarian Lands as a Guarantee for Maintaining Their Multifunctionality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego Varga

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The analysis of past and present patterns of agrarian mountain areas allows researchers to characterize the influence of landscape heterogeneity on biodiversity, cultural heritage, and forest fire hazard. This process was mapped, quantified, and described through the use of digital mapping (GIS and landscape indexes in a protected area in Alta Garrotxa (Catalonia, Spain. These areas require urgent management and modelling to provide alternative management scenarios, in order to maintain and recover habitats. A set of different scenarios have been designed using a multi-criteria evaluation and geospatial information available for the study area to identify the key areas for management action and to predict the potential effects on agricultural lands by prioritizing one or another management objective: biodiversity, landscape structure and perception, cultural heritage, fire hazard, and management cost. The observed progressive land abandonment of open areas with a small size and greater isolation will have a large impact on biodiversity and cultural heritage, and increase fire risk. Sustainable development will require planning objectives compatible with the conservation of biodiversity and the preservation of Mediterranean features with support for agricultural activities. This methodology can contribute to and be easily implemented by land managers, which could help to strengthen the link between managers and stakeholders.

Conceptual model development for landscape management in the mountains of the Indian Himalayan region: an approach for sustainable socio-ecological development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunil Nautiyal

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This study aims at presenting a conceptual model for landscape management in the Himalayan region of India, using quantitative/mathematical approach. Keeping in view the requirement, (based on fifteen years empirical field work in the Himalayan region and as well as literature survey the MODAM (Multiple Objectives Decision Support Tools for Landscape Management model along with linear programming approach was adopted with a view to presenting additional methodological perspectives on interdisciplinary landscape research. The work has stemmed out from the original research contribution, which tries to integrate interdisciplinary research planning with landscape management related research in the Himalayan region. This biodiversity hotspot has relatively high complexity in terms of sustainable socioeconomic development vis a vis conservation and management of the resources. The concepts and insights presented in this article will provide the basis for a discussion, on decisionmaking issues among multidisciplinary experts with regard to sustainable socioecological development within complex environments.

Controls on Late Quaternary Landscape development in the Upper Guadalentin Basin, Murcia, SE Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baartman, J. e. M.; Veldkamp, A.

2009-01-01

Landscapes in South-eastern Spain have developed in response to tectonics, climatic fluctuations and, more recently, to human action. In the valleys, fluvial colluvial sediments are found in the form of river terraces, pediments and slope deposits. We studied these sediments to evaluate landscape dynamics and the processes of sedimentation and erosion in the semi-arid region of the Guadalentin Basin, Murcia Province, SE Spain. The objective of the study is to deduce controls on Late Quaternary and Holocene landscape development. Fieldwork was carried out on the reach of the Upper Guadalentin, upstream of the city of Lorca, and two of its tributaries (Rio Velez and Rambla de Torrealvilla). River terrace levels were mapped using GPS and presence of gravel layers in outcrops. For the Rambla de Torrealvilla, more detailed sediment descriptions show their build-up. (Author) 18 refs.

Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

2018-02-01

The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A General Model for Estimating Macroevolutionary Landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Boucher, Florian C; Démery, Vincent; Conti, Elena; Harmon, Luke J; Uyeda, Josef

2018-03-01

The evolution of quantitative characters over long timescales is often studied using stochastic diffusion models. The current toolbox available to students of macroevolution is however limited to two main models: Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, plus some of their extensions. Here, we present a very general model for inferring the dynamics of quantitative characters evolving under both random diffusion and deterministic forces of any possible shape and strength, which can accommodate interesting evolutionary scenarios like directional trends, disruptive selection, or macroevolutionary landscapes with multiple peaks. This model is based on a general partial differential equation widely used in statistical mechanics: the Fokker-Planck equation, also known in population genetics as the Kolmogorov forward equation. We thus call the model FPK, for Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov. We first explain how this model can be used to describe macroevolutionary landscapes over which quantitative traits evolve and, more importantly, we detail how it can be fitted to empirical data. Using simulations, we show that the model has good behavior both in terms of discrimination from alternative models and in terms of parameter inference. We provide R code to fit the model to empirical data using either maximum-likelihood or Bayesian estimation, and illustrate the use of this code with two empirical examples of body mass evolution in mammals. FPK should greatly expand the set of macroevolutionary scenarios that can be studied since it opens the way to estimating macroevolutionary landscapes of any conceivable shape. [Adaptation; bounds; diffusion; FPK model; macroevolution; maximum-likelihood estimation; MCMC methods; phylogenetic comparative data; selection.].

Stratigraphic landscape analysis, thermochronology and the episodic development of elevated, passive continental margins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Green, Paul F.

2013-12-01

that peneplains grade towards base level, and that in the absence of other options (e.g. widespread resistant lithologies, the most likely base level is sea level. This is particularly so at continental margins due to their proximity to the adjacent ocean. Studies in which EPCMs are interpreted as related to rifting or break-up commonly favour histories involving continuous denudation of margins following rifting, and interpretation of thermochronology data in terms of monotonic cooling histories. However, in several regions, including southern Africa, south-east Australia and eastern Brazil, geological constraints demonstrate that such scenarios are inappropriate, and an episodic development involving post-breakup subsidence and burial followed later by uplift and denudation is more realistic. Such development is also indicated by the presence in sedimentary basins adjacent to many EPCMs of major erosional unconformities within the post-breakup sedimentary section which correlate with onshore denudation episodes. The nature of the processes responsible is not yet understood, but it seems likely that plate-scale forces are required in order to explain the regional extent of the effects involved. New geodynamic models are required to explain the episodic development of EPCMs, accommodating post-breakup subsidence and burial as well as subsequent uplift and denudation, long after break-up which created the characteristic, modern-day EPCM landscapes.

Untangling human development and natural gradients: implications of underlying correlation structure for linking landscapes and riverine ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Yasmin Lucero; E. Ashley Steel; Kelly M. Burnett; Kelly. Christiansen

2011-01-01

Increasingly, ecologists seek to identify and quantify relationships between landscape gradients and aquatic ecosystems. Considerable statistical challenges emerge in this effort, some of which are attributable to multicollinearity between human development and landscape gradients. In this paper, we measure the covariation between human development—such as agriculture...

Design storytelling with future scenario development; envisioning "the museum"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eggink, Wouter; Albert de la Bruheze, Adri A.

2015-01-01

There are different ways to tell stories with design. This paper shows possibilities of telling stories by envisioning the future. Overall, design has the very ability to envision, visualize and express things that do not exist yet. We introduce the Future Scenario Development Design methodology as

Which DEM is best for analyzing fluvial landscape development in mountainous terrains?

Science.gov (United States)

Boulton, Sarah J.; Stokes, Martin

2018-06-01

Regional studies of fluvial landforms and long-term (Quaternary) landscape development in remote mountain landscapes routinely use satellite-derived DEM data sets. The SRTM and ASTER DEMs are the most commonly utilised because of their longer availability, free cost, and ease of access. However, rapid technological developments mean that newer and higher resolution DEM data sets such as ALOS World 3D (AW3D) and TanDEM-X are being released to the scientific community. Geomorphologists are thus faced with an increasingly problematic challenge of selecting an appropriate DEM for their landscape analyses. Here, we test the application of four medium resolution DEM products (30 m = SRTM, ASTER, AW3D; 12 m = TanDEM-X) for qualitative and quantitative analysis of a fluvial mountain landscape using the Dades River catchment (High Atlas Mountains, Morocco). This landscape comprises significant DEM remote sensing challenges, notably a high mountain relief, steep slopes, and a deeply incised high sinuosity drainage network with narrow canyon/gorge reaches. Our goal was to see which DEM produced the most representative best fit drainage network and meaningful quantification. To achieve this, we used ArcGIS and Stream Profiler platforms to generate catchment hillshade and slope rasters and to extract drainage network, channel long profile and channel slope, and area data. TanDEM-X produces the clearest landscape representation but with channel routing errors in localised high relief areas. Thirty-metre DEMs are smoother and less detailed, but the AW3D shows the closest fit to the real drainage network configuration. The TanDEM-X elevation values are the closest to field-derived GPS measurements. Long profiles exhibit similar shapes but with minor differences in length, elevation, and the degree of noise/smoothing, with AW3D producing the best representation. Slope-area plots display similarly positioned slope-break knickpoints with modest differences in steepness and concavity

Review of scenario analyses to reduce agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus loading to the aquatic environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hashemi, Fatemeh; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind; Dalgaard, Tommy

2016-01-01

Nutrient loadings of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to aquatic environments are of increasing concern globally for managing ecosystems, drinking water supply and food production. There are often multiple sources of these nutrients in the landscape, and the different hydrological flow patterns...... nutrient loadings. Here we review 130 published papers extracted from Web of Science for 1995 to 2014 that have applied models to analyse scenarios of agricultural impacts on nutrients loadings at catchment scale. The review shows that scenario studies have been performed over a broad range of climatic...... processes. Few studies have considered spatially targeting measures in the landscape, and such studies are more recent. Spatially differentiated options include land cover/use modification and application of different land management options based on catchments characteristics, cropping conditions...

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Developments in strategic landscape monitoring for the Nordic countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Landscape plays an increasingly relevant and prominent role in the protection and mangement of the Earth's terrestrial environments and ecosystems, including the diverse forested, agricultural, wilderness and build-up landscapes within the Nordic countries. However to be meaningful in the Informa...

Landscape Ecology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Brandt, Jesper; Svenningsen, Stig Roar

2017-01-01

, and the ecological significance of the patterns which are generated by such processes. In landscape ecology, perspectives drawn from existing academic disciplines are integrated based on a common, spatially explicit mode of analysis developed from classical holistic geography, emphasizing spatial and landscape...... to translate positivist readings of the environment and hermeneutical perspectives on socioecological interaction into a common framework or terminology....

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, F. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miles, J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Zammit, D. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Loomis, D. [Great Lakes Wind Network, Cleveland, OH (United States)

2015-02-01

This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-15

This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, L. A.

2012-12-01

Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided

Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barber, E.J. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

1991-12-31

In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

Assessment of landscape diversity and determination of landscape hotspots - a case of Slovenia

Science.gov (United States)

Perko, Drago; Ciglič, Rok; Hrvatin, Mauro

2017-04-01

Areas with high landscape diversity can be regarded as landscape hotspots, and vice versa areas with low landscape diversity can be marked as landscape coldspots. The main purpose of this paper is to use quantitative geoinformatical approach and identify parts of our test area (the country of Slovenia) that can be described as very diverse according to natural landscapes and natural elements. We used different digital raster data of natural elements and landscape classifications and defined landscape diversity and landscape hotspots. We defined diversity for each raster pixel by counting the number of different unique types of landscape elements and types of landscapes in its neighborhood. Namely, the method was used separately to define diversity according to natural elements (types of relief forms, rocks, and vegetation) and diversity according to existing geographical landscape classifications of Slovenia (types of landscapes). In both cases one-tenth of Slovenia's surface with the highest landscape diversity was defined as landscape hotspots. The same applies to the coldspots. Additionally we tested the same method of counting different types of landscapes in certain radius also for the area of Europe in order to find areas that are more diverse at continental level. By doing so we were able to find areas that have similar level of diversity as Slovenia according to different European landscape classifications. Areas with landscape diversity may have an advantage in economic development, especially in tourism. Such areas are also important for biodiversity, habitat, and species diversity. On the other hand, localities where various natural influences mix can also be areas where it is hard to transfer best practices from one place to another because of the varying responses of the landscapes to human intervention. Thus it is important to know where areas with high landscape diversity are.

Assessing the Impact of Landscape Development on Ecosystem Services Value in Tropical Watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foo, Y S; Hashim, M

2014-01-01

As development increases with demand, more forest lands are replaced with cropland, commercial plantation, and infrastructures for being able to accommodate the excessive growth in world's population. Environments were destroyed without considering their values in sustaining life on Earth.This phenomenon is still an ongoing scenario in most of the developing countries in the tropical region including Malaysia. Such unrestricted conversion may cause food or water crisis along with irreparable consequences to local and regional climate as the natural ecosystem is not only the main resources generator but also the climate stabilizer. Contrary to this, a study was conducted in Pahang Watershed, the largest watershed in Peninsular Malaysia with forest as the dominant land cover, to investigate the effect of landscape development on the ecosystem in terms of the erosion and ecosystem service value. Results of soil loss based on USLE indicated a direct relationship between development and total soil loss where total annual soil loss in year 2005 and 2010 showed a significant increase compare to year 2000. Meanwhile, developed and agricultural lands were discovered to be the main contributor whereas forest land produce the least soil loss (<10ton/ ha/yr). Apart from this, this study also reports a degrading trend in the overall ecological service value and goods (ESVG). Although oil palm had become the main commercial plantation in current years, the commercial profit brought by oil palm still insufficient to cover losses referring to overall estimated ESVG due to the forest clearance and soil degradation. In addition, for a destroyed ecosystem to be equilibrium again requires years. Therefore, ESVG of the tropical forest are expected to increase continuously in future which mean that the roles of the forest in conserving the environment stabilization and sustainability of life are getting more critical

Urban Landscape Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frederick Steiner

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Cities present significant opportunities for new landscape perspectives that can help inform conservation and development decisions. Early in the twenty-first century, the majority of the planet’s population became urban as more people lived in city-regions for the first time in our history. As the global population increases, so does this urbanization. The environmental challenges of population and urban growth are profound. Landscapes represent a synthesis of natural and cultural processes. Cities are certainly cultural phenomena. Historically, cities provided refuge from nature. The expanding field of urban ecology, coupled with landscape ecology, can enhance how the dual natural and cultural dimensions of landscapes in cities are understood. Furthermore, concepts such as ecosystem services and green infrastructure are proving useful for urban landscape planning and design. Examples from Dayton, Ohio; Brooklyn, New York; and Austin, Texas are presented.

Integrating landscape ecology and geoinformatics to decipher landscape dynamics for regional planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Dikou, Angela; Papapanagiotou, Evangelos; Troumbis, Andreas

2011-09-01

We used remote sensing and GIS in conjunction with multivariate statistical methods to: (i) quantify landscape composition (land cover types) and configuration (patch density, diversity, fractal dimension, contagion) for five coastal watersheds of Kalloni gulf, Lesvos Island, Greece, in 1945, 1960, 1971, 1990 and 2002/2003, (ii) evaluate the relative importance of physical (slope, geologic substrate, stream order) and human (road network, population density) variables on landscape composition and configuration, and (iii) characterize processes that led to land cover changes through land cover transitions between these five successive periods in time. Distributions of land cover types did not differ among the five time periods at the five watersheds studied because the largest cumulative changes between 1945 and 2002/2003 did not take place at dominant land cover types. Landscape composition related primarily to the physical attributes of the landscape. Nevertheless, increase in population density and the road network were found to increase heterogeneity of the landscape mosaic (patchiness), complexity of patch shape (fractal dimension), and patch disaggregation (contagion). Increase in road network was also found to increase landscape diversity due to the creation of new patches. The main processes involved in land cover changes were plough-land abandonment and ecological succession. Landscape dynamics during the last 50 years corroborate the ecotouristic-agrotouristic model for regional development to reverse trends in agricultural land abandonment and human population decline and when combined with hypothetical regulatory approaches could predict how this landscape could develop in the future, thus, providing a valuable tool to regional planning.

GIS-based landscape design research: Stourhead landscape garden as a case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steffen Nijhuis

2017-11-01

research, such as the visible form and kinaesthetic aspects, analysing the composition from eyelevel perspective. Moreover, the case study showcases that GIS has the potential to measure phenomena that are often subject to intuitive and experimental design, combining general scientific knowledge of, for instance, visual perception and way-finding, with the examination of site-specific design applications. GIS also enabled one to understand the landscape architectonic composition of Stourhead as a product of time, via the analysis of its development through reconstruction and evaluation of several crucial time-slice snapshots. The study illustrates that GIS can be regarded an external cognitive tool that facilitates and mediates in design knowledge acquisition. GIS facilitates in the sense that it can address the ‘same types of design-knowledge’ regarding the basic, spatial, symbolic and programmatic form, but in a more precise, systematic, transparent, and quantified manner. GIS mediates in the sense that it influences what and how aspects of the composition can be understood and therefore enables design researchers to generate ‘new types of design-knowledge’ by advanced spatial analysis and the possibility of linking or integrating other information layers, fields of science and data sources. The research contributes to the development and distribution of knowledge of GIS-applications in landscape architecture in two ways: (1 by ‘following’ the discipline and developing aspects of it, and (2 by setting in motion fundamental developments in the field, providing alternative readings of landscape architecture designs.

Visual quality evaluation of urban commercial streetscape for the development of landscape visual planning system in provincial street corridors in Malang, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Santosa, H.; Ernawati, J.; Wulandari, L. D.

2018-03-01

The visual aesthetic experience in urban spaces is important in establishing a comfortable and satisfying experience for the community. The embodiment of a good visual image of urban space will encourage the emergence of positive perceptions and meanings stimulating the community to produce a good reaction to its urban space. Moreover, to establish a Good Governance in urban planning and design, it is necessary to boost and promote a community participation in the process of controlling the visual quality of urban space through the visual quality evaluation on urban street corridors. This study is an early stage as part of the development of ‘Landscape Visual Planning System’ on the commercial street corridor in Malang. Accordingly, the research aims to evaluate the physical characteristics and the public preferences of the spatial and visual aspects in five provincial road corridors in Malang. This study employs a field survey methods, and an environmental aesthetics approach through semantic differential method. The result of the identification of physical characteristics and the assessment of public preferences on the spatial and visual aspects of the five provincial streets serve as the basis for constructing the 3d interactive simulation scenarios in the Landscape Visual Planning System.

Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base, scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. A variant scenario defined by a single initiating FEP is characterised by a sequence of events. This is represented as a 'timeline' which forms the basis for modelling that scenario. To generate a variant scenario defined by two initiating FEPs, a methodology is presented for combining the timelines for the two underlying 'single-FEP' variants. The resulting series of event sequences can be generated automatically. These sequences are then reviewed, in order to reduce the number of timelines requiring detailed consideration. This is achieved in two ways: by aggregating sequences which have similar consequence in terms of safety performance; and by combining successive intervals along a timeline where appropriate. In the context of a performance assessment, the aim is to determine the conditional risk and appropriate weight for each

Studying landscape architecture in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Braae, Ellen Marie; Hare, Richard Andrew

2010-01-01

s demanded large numbers of landscape architects. Today landscape architecture education addresses current challenges of climate change and the need for sustainable development where an understanding of natural systems is seen as essential for future urbanisation processes in evermore innovative......Landscape architecture is a well-established profession in Denmark. From the early 20th Century the profession developed steadily. However, it was 1960 before a separate education was established. This proved timely as the immense physical development of the Danish welfare state of the 1970s and 80...

Incorporating resilience and cost in ecological restoration strategies at landscape scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maurício Stefanes

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The restoration of deforested or degraded areas can contribute to biodiversity conservation and global resilience given the current and projected impacts of climate change. In recent years, a robust array of ecological restoration frameworks have been generated to address restoration challenges at large scales in different ecosystems around the world. Unfortunately, the costs associated with restoration at such scales greatly challenges the implementation of such frameworks. We used landscape ecology principles with multicriteria optimization of landscape resilience and agricultural productivity as a way to mitigate the trade-offs between production and restoration. We used the Cerrado biome in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil, as a case study to apply our framework. We compared three scenarios: minimal legal compliance (MLC; selection by ecological resilience (SER; and selection by restoration cost (SRC. Our results show that increasing the restoration target from MLC (25% to SER (30% means moving from 968,316 to 1592 million hectares, which can represent a huge opportunity cost for agricultural lands. However, because costs and resilience are not homogeneously distributed throughout landscapes, we can select areas of intermediate ecological resilience and low cost, for the same restoration area target. This process can reduce potential conflicts and make restoration a more viable process. Our results also reveal some areas that can be particularly important for reconciling agriculture and landscape restoration. Those areas combined high and intermediate resilience and an above average profitability. This could mean that increasing restoration in this area could be very expensive, assuming that our proxy roughly represents the restoration implementation cost. However, there is another important message here, that some areas can be productive at the same time that they maintain levels of resilience above the legal compliance, which facilitates

Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

2008-01-01

The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

River Water Pollution Status and Water Policy Scenario in Ethiopia: Raising Awareness for Better Implementation in Developing Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Awoke, Aymere; Beyene, Abebe; Kloos, Helmut; Goethals, Peter L. M.; Triest, Ludwig

2016-10-01

Despite the increasing levels of pollution in many tropical African countries, not much is known about the strength and weaknesses of policy and institutional frameworks to tackle pollution and ecological status of rivers and their impacts on the biota. We investigated the ecological status of four large river basins using physicochemical water quality parameters and bioindicators by collecting samples from forest, agriculture, and urban landscapes of the Nile, Omo-Gibe, Tekeze, and Awash River basins in Ethiopia. We also assessed the water policy scenario to evaluate its appropriateness to prevent and control pollution. To investigate the level of understanding and implementation of regulatory frameworks and policies related to water resources, we reviewed the policy documents and conducted in-depth interviews of the stakeholders. Physicochemical and biological data revealed that there is significant water quality deterioration at the impacted sites (agriculture, coffee processing, and urban landscapes) compared to reference sites (forested landscapes) in all four basins. The analysis of legal, policy, and institutional framework showed a lack of cooperation between stakeholders, lack of knowledge of the policy documents, absence of enforcement strategies, unavailability of appropriate working guidelines, and disconnected institutional setup at the grass root level to implement the set strategies as the major problems. In conclusion, river water pollution is a growing challenge and needs urgent action to implement intersectoral collaboration for water resource management that will eventually lead toward integrated watershed management. Revision of policy and increasing the awareness and participation of implementers are vital to improve ecological quality of rivers.

River Water Pollution Status and Water Policy Scenario in Ethiopia: Raising Awareness for Better Implementation in Developing Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Awoke, Aymere; Beyene, Abebe; Kloos, Helmut; Goethals, Peter L M; Triest, Ludwig

2016-10-01

Despite the increasing levels of pollution in many tropical African countries, not much is known about the strength and weaknesses of policy and institutional frameworks to tackle pollution and ecological status of rivers and their impacts on the biota. We investigated the ecological status of four large river basins using physicochemical water quality parameters and bioindicators by collecting samples from forest, agriculture, and urban landscapes of the Nile, Omo-Gibe, Tekeze, and Awash River basins in Ethiopia. We also assessed the water policy scenario to evaluate its appropriateness to prevent and control pollution. To investigate the level of understanding and implementation of regulatory frameworks and policies related to water resources, we reviewed the policy documents and conducted in-depth interviews of the stakeholders. Physicochemical and biological data revealed that there is significant water quality deterioration at the impacted sites (agriculture, coffee processing, and urban landscapes) compared to reference sites (forested landscapes) in all four basins. The analysis of legal, policy, and institutional framework showed a lack of cooperation between stakeholders, lack of knowledge of the policy documents, absence of enforcement strategies, unavailability of appropriate working guidelines, and disconnected institutional setup at the grass root level to implement the set strategies as the major problems. In conclusion, river water pollution is a growing challenge and needs urgent action to implement intersectoral collaboration for water resource management that will eventually lead toward integrated watershed management. Revision of policy and increasing the awareness and participation of implementers are vital to improve ecological quality of rivers.

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Co-exploring the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Facilitating Dialogue through Participatory Scenario Building

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oliver W. Johnson

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The “water-energy-food nexus” has become an increasingly popular way to frame the challenges associated with reconciling human development objectives with responsible management of natural resources and ecosystems. Yet the nexus is complex, requiring effective engagement between expert and Non-expert stakeholders in order to understand biophysical inter-linkages between resources and resource flows and social interactions between different actors in the socio-ecological system and landscape. This can be a substantial challenge due to varying levels of knowledge and understanding amongst actors with divergent, and often entrenched, interests. This paper presents insights on how participatory scenario-building processes can create space for dialogue amongst stakeholders with differing knowledge, experience, priorities, and political perspectives. Drawing on completed and on-going research applying a “nexus toolkit” in Ethiopia and Rwanda respectively, we contribute to a generalized conceptual framework for addressing, communicating, and assessing the water-energy-food nexus, with a particular focus on how to utilize the nexus concept in practice. This framework has significant potential to help better understand interactions at landscape level, for example, between charcoal production, food production, and environmental systems. We find that participatory scenario-building processes that facilitate engagement beyond technical aspects to include social, economic and political concerns provide a valuable space for discussing and negotiating development pathways that are sustainable both biophysically and socio-economically. In addition, the involvement of stakeholders throughout the project process greatly enhances the quality and legitimacy of results. Furthermore, we suggest that by building capacity amongst stakeholders to maintain a quantitative “nexus toolkit,” it has a better chance of informing decision-making and for supporting

Landscape Ecology and problems of European cultural landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, Jesper

2011-01-01

by practical problems of European cultural – especial agricultural – landscapes since the rise of the environmental movement. Central themes have been the consequences of technological and structural changes within European agriculture for the landscape and the development of habitats and dispersal...... Problemstellungen basieren auf multifunktionalen Nutzungskonzepten ruraler Landschaften, besonders im Hinblick auf Suburbanisierungsprozesse. Eine Anzahl untereinander vergleichbarer Projekte, mit parallelen bis ähnlichen Ausprägungen innerhalb Dänemarks und weiteerer europäischer Länder, werden exemplarisch...

LANDPLANER (LANDscape, Plants, LANdslide and ERosion): a model to describe the dynamic response of slopes (or basins) under different changing scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, Mauro; Torri, Dino; Santi, Elisa; Bacaro, Giovanni; Marchesini, Ivan

2014-05-01

approaches have been proposed to model separately landslide and erosion processes, only few attempts were made to model both jointly, mostly integrating pre-existing models. To overcome this limitation we develop a new model called LANDPLANER (LANDscape, Plants, LANdslide and ERosion), specifically design to describe the dynamic response of slopes (or basins) under different changing scenarios including: (i) changes of meteorological factors, (ii) changes of vegetation or land-use, (iii) and changes of slope morphology. The was applied in different study area in order to check its basic assumptions, and to test its general operability and applicability. Results show a reasonable model behaviors and confirm its easy applicability in real cases.

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agroparks - The European Landscape Convention and a European way to regional sustainable landscape development through land use integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Svennningsen, Stig R.; Brandt, Jesper

2011-01-01

areas of Europe, in which environmental management increasingly conforms to the principles of liberal economy. Based on a national study of privately owned largeholder manorial estates in Denmark including a detailed case study conducted in one of the survey areas, we conclude that transition...... to landscape sustainability is held back by two main inhibitors, which currently makes it a necessity for rural agency to act unsustainably: (1) The global liberalized legal system which supports individual private ownership to land and thus restrains large scale decision making at a spatial scale to match...... of production activities. These landscapes integrate nature protection, agriculture, settlement and recreation in complex structures of management. They could serve as an example for future sustainable landscape planning at a larger scale, supported by regional regulation. The European Landscape Convention (ELC...

Feature, event, and process screening and scenario development for the yucca mountain total system performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swift, P.; Barr, G.; Barnard, R.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Freeze, G.; Burck, P.

2001-01-01

Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of postclosure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). To ensure clear documentation of the treatment of potentially relevant future states of the system in the Yucca Mountain license application (LA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) has chosen to adopt a scenario development process based on the methodology developed by Cranwell et al. (1990) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Although the process, described below, has been modified somewhat as a result of experience gained in the last decade, the underlying methodology is consistent with that outlined by the DOE in the 1988 Site Characterization Plan for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) (U.S. DOE, 1988). The approach is fundamentally the same as that used in many performance assessments, including the most recent analysis of the Yucca Mountain repository by the NRC (Wescott et al., 1995). The approach has also been used by the DOE for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) (U.S. DOE, 1996), by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), and by other radioactive waste programs internationally. Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited. (authors)

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

2015-01-01

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Methodological progress in the development of scenarios for ENRESA-2000 Performance assessment exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortes Martin, A.

2000-01-01

ENRESA is carrying out a new safety assessment exercise for a deep geological spent fuel disposal facility located in granite, known as ENRESA-2000. One of the main objectives of this safety analysis is the integration and implementation of all R and D studies performed to date by ENRESA, as well as the identification of those aspects of the assessment which require further investigation. One of the main activities of this exercise is the selection and development of the scenarios to be quantitatively analysed during the assessment, where a scenario is defined as a sufficient number of FEPs (ie relevant features, events and processes) as well as their influence relationships, which explain the behaviour of the disposal system. As a result of these three methods, a definitive list of FEPs will be obtained for the ENRESA-2000 exercise. Once grouped into scenarios, these FEPs will be used to model and calculate consequences. This process of generation and development of scenarios for the ENRESA-2000 performance assessment exercise is presented in this paper. (Author)

Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Jacinto

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2 adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1 characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2 identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3 identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4 production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes. The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16% in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%. All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-01-01

Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-07-01

Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change. Editorial Essay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goessling, S.; Hall, C.M.

2006-01-01

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, 'warmer' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity. This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters. The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including 'most at risk destinations', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation

Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change. Editorial Essay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goessling, S. [Department of Service Management, Lund University, Box 882, 251 08 Helsingborg (Sweden); Hall, C.M. [Department of Tourism, University of Otago, Otago (New Zealand)

2006-12-15

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, 'warmer' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity. This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters. The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including 'most at risk destinations', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation.

Estimating landscape-scale impacts of agricultural management on soil carbon using measurements and models

Science.gov (United States)

Schipanski, M.; Rosenzweig, S. T.; Robertson, A. D.; Sherrod, L. A.; Ghimire, R.; McMaster, G. S.

2017-12-01

Agriculture covers 40% of Earth's ice-free land area and has broad impacts on global biogeochemical cycles. While some agricultural management changes are small in scale or impact, others have the potential to shift biogeochemical cycles at landscape and larger scales if widely adopted. Understanding which management practices have the potential to contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation while maintaining productivity requires scaling up estimates spatially and temporally. We used on-farm, long-term, and landscape scale datasets to estimate how crop rotations impact soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation rates under current and future climate scenarios across the semi-arid Central and Southern Great Plains. We used a stratified, landscape-scale soil sampling approach across 96 farm fields to evaluate crop rotation intensity effects on SOC pools and pesticide inputs. Replacing traditional wheat-fallow rotations with more diverse, continuously cropped rotations increased SOC by 17% and 12% in 0-10 cm and 0-20 cm depths, respectively, and reduced herbicide use by 50%. Using USDA Cropland Data Layer, we estimated soil C accumulation and pesticide reduction potentials of shifting to more intensive rotations. We also used a 30-year cropping systems experiment to calibrate and validate the Daycent model to evaluate rotation intensify effects under future climate change scenarios. The model estimated greater SOC accumulation rates under continuously cropped rotations, but SOC stocks peaked and then declined for all cropping systems beyond 2050 under future climate scenarios. Perennial grasslands were the only system estimated to maintain SOC levels in the future. In the Southern High Plains, soil C declined despite increasing input intensity under current weather while modest gains were simulated under future climate for sorghum-based cropping systems. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of semi-arid regions to climate change, which will be

Cultural landscapes and local development: High fashion or prêt a porter?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joaquín Sabaté Bel

2007-07-01

Full Text Available This paper is divided into three parts. The first defends that the antiquity and the appreciation for it, is a modern invention. This recognition carried from a preservation of monumental pieces to a larger vision of heritage, the cultural landscape. Thereafter, we will try to clarify the concept of cultural landscape, and the concept of heritage parks as a vehicle for development. In the second part the focus of this paper will be the relationship of both concepts in the postmodern condition, possible risks of thematization and universal recognition figures, as well as the implications from certain management tools. From the analysis of a hundred projects and proposals spread over several continents is interesting to note some operational lessons. But more than the recognition of singularity of certain areas, the specificity of projects, or the most appropriate mechanisms for management, the conclusion emphasizes that is relevant and urgent to study the challenges posed by this rich conception of territory and landscape planning discipline.

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Anderson, Kevin L.; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

2008-01-01

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

2014-04-01

The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

Nature protection and socio-economic development in selected protected landscape areas

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kušová, Drahomíra; Těšitel, Jan; Matějka, K.; Bartoš, Michael

2005-01-01

Roč. 24, č. 1 (2005), s. 109-123 ISSN 1335-342X R&D Projects: GA MŽP(CZ) SM/610/3/03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : protected landscape areas * nature protection * biosphere reserves * socio-economic development Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2005

Editorial: Entropy in Landscape Ecology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuel A. Cushman

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Entropy and the second law of thermodynamics are the central organizing principles of nature, but the ideas and implications of the second law are poorly developed in landscape ecology. The purpose of this Special Issue “Entropy in Landscape Ecology” in Entropy is to bring together current research on applications of thermodynamics in landscape ecology, to consolidate current knowledge and identify key areas for future research. The special issue contains six articles, which cover a broad range of topics including relationships between entropy and evolution, connections between fractal geometry and entropy, new approaches to calculate configurational entropy of landscapes, example analyses of computing entropy of landscapes, and using entropy in the context of optimal landscape planning. Collectively these papers provide a broad range of contributions to the nascent field of ecological thermodynamics. Formalizing the connections between entropy and ecology are in a very early stage, and that this special issue contains papers that address several centrally important ideas, and provides seminal work that will be a foundation for the future development of ecological and evolutionary thermodynamics.

Integrated Scenarios of Regional Development in Two Semi-Arid States of North-Eastern Brazil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.

2002-01-01

Scenario analysis of the future is an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid North-eastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative¿quantitative scenarios that show potential

Future scenarios for the development of nuclear power. How will nuclear power develop over the next twenty to forty years?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pickett, Susan E.

2009-01-01

Nuclear power technology has developed significantly over the past 60 years to the point that today it supplies the world with 15% of its electricity; and there are plans for continued development. However, the continued growth of nuclear power is not without challenges. The nuclear industry must remain competitive in the face of challenges ranging from environmental considerations and proliferation concerns to ensuring safe and often transparent operations. Understanding these and other issues, as well as their underlying causes, can help the industry leaders create more robust strategies and effectively implement nuclear fuel cycle decisions. Robust strategies are ones that can be effective even when circumstances change, due to events such as opposition, new scientific information, changes in resource availability, or introduction of competing technologies. Scenario planning is tool which can help planners and decision makers create a strategic conversation about the future and how to manage and plan in a time of accelerated change and complexity. In this paper, scenario planning is introduced and the development of nuclear power is examined against the back drop of four future scenarios, specifically looking at how variations in environmental quality, resource availability, security and proliferation, and safety may affect the development of nuclear power. The scenarios discussed provide a starting point to improve the understanding of issues and opportunities facing the global nuclear power industry and ultimately, to improve strategies for technology development. Such scenarios may be employed as a basis for collaboration and communication amongst the stakeholders involved in the development of nuclear technology. (author)

Landscape Character of Pongkor Mining Ecotourism Area

Science.gov (United States)

Kusumoarto, A.; Gunawan, A.; Machfud; Hikmat, A.

2017-10-01

Pongkor Mining Ecotourism Area has a diverse landscape character as a potential landscape resources for the development of ecotourism destination. This area is part of the Mount of Botol Resort, Halimun Salak National Park (HSNP). This area also has a fairly high biodiversity. This study aims to identify and analysis the category of landscape character in the Pongkor Mining Ecotourism Area for the development of ecotourism destination. This study used a descriptive approach through field surveys and interviews, was carried out through two steps : 1) identify the landscape character, and 2) analysis of the landscape character. The results showed that in areas set aside for ecotourism destination in Pongkor Mining, landscape character category scattered forests, tailing ponds, river, plain, and the built environment. The Category of landscape character most dominant scattered in the area is forest, here is the river, plain, tailing ponds, the built environment, and plain. The landscape character in a natural environment most preferred for ecotourism activities. The landscape character that spread in the natural environment and the built environment is a potential that must be protected and modified such as elimination of incongruous element, accentuation of natural form, alteration of the natural form, intensification and enhanced visual quality intensively to be developed as a ecotourism destination area.

Past and future landscape dynamics in pasture-woodlands of the Swiss Jura Mountains under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Peringer

2013-09-01

We present a refined version of the spatially explicit, dynamic simulation model WoodPaM with improved climate sensitivity of simulated vegetation. We investigate pasture-woodland dynamics by applying an innovative combination of retrospective simulations starting in the Middle Ages with prospective simulations following two climate change scenarios. The retrospective simulations demonstrate the strong dependency of the landscape mosaic on both climate and management. In high elevation mountain pastures, climate cooling during the Little Ice Age hindered simulated tree regeneration and reduced forage production of grasslands. Both led to an increase in open grassland and to a structural simplification of the landscape. In turn, climate warming afterwards showed the opposite effect. At lower elevations, high cattle stocking rates generally dominate simulated succession, leading to a slow development of quite homogenous landscapes whose structures are hardly affected by historical climate variability. Aerial photographs suggest that logging and windstorms critically shaped the current landscape, both homogenizing mosaic structures that emerge from selective grazing. Simulations of climate change scenarios suggest delayed but inevitable structural changes in the landscape mosaic and a temporary breakdown of the ecosystem service wood production. The population of currently dominating Norway spruce collapses due to simulated drought. Spruce is only slowly replaced either by beech under moderate warming or by Scots pine under extreme warming. In general, the shift in tree species dominance results in landscapes of less structural richness than today. In order to maintain the mosaic structure of pasture-woodlands, we recommend a future increase in cattle stocking on mountain pastures. The (re- introduction of mixed herds (cattle with horses, sheep, and goats could mitigate the simulated trend towards structural homogenization of the forest-grassland mosaic because

Titan Polar Landscape Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Jeffrey M.

2016-01-01

With the ongoing Cassini-era observations and studies of Titan it is clear that the intensity and distribution of surface processes (particularly fluvial erosion by methane and Aeolian transport) has changed through time. Currently however, alternate hypotheses substantially differ among specific scenarios with respect to the effects of atmospheric evolution, seasonal changes, and endogenic processes. We have studied the evolution of Titan's polar region through a combination of analysis of imaging, elevation data, and geomorphic mapping, spatially explicit simulations of landform evolution, and quantitative comparison of the simulated landscapes with corresponding Titan morphology. We have quantitatively evaluated alternate scenarios for the landform evolution of Titan's polar terrain. The investigations have been guided by recent geomorphic mapping and topographic characterization of the polar regions that are used to frame hypotheses of process interactions, which have been evaluated using simulation modeling. Topographic information about Titan's polar region is be based on SAR-Topography and altimetry archived on PDS, SAR-based stereo radar-grammetry, radar-sounding lake depth measurements, and superposition relationships between geomorphologic map units, which we will use to create a generalized topographic map.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

Soil temperature of peatland landscapes as a factor in the development of exogenous processes of biogenic relief formation in engineering development of territory

Science.gov (United States)

Korkin, S.; Talyneva, O.; Kail, E.

2018-03-01

In the presented work we consider mire landscapes in the context of temperature monitoring. The mire landscapes in engineering development of the territory are very sensitive to anthropogenic impact that leads to a change in surface conditions, changes in natural succession and, as a rule, to changes in soil temperature and properties, which in turn may develop a complex of hostile geodynamic processes. For this study we used recording systems for field measurement of peat and subsoil temperatures. The measurements were made in two key areas: the territory of the north-taiga landscapes of Western Siberia (the Siberian Ridges), and the territory of the middle-taiga landscapes of Western Siberia (the Ob middle-river lowland). The paper analyses the data obtained from five observation sites (3, 5, 5a, 6 and 8) referred to hydromorphic landscapes. For the territory of the Siberian Ridges the 5-year average soil temperature was 3°C. For the Ob middle-river lowland the 6-year average soil temperature was 4.2°C. The annual soil temperature in the period 2015-2016 for Site 5a (man-disturbed area) was 8.3°C at all depths, which is 3.8°C higher than in a natural bog (Site 5 was a control area).

Responding to Landscape Change: Stakeholder Participation and Social Capital in Five European Landscapes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thanasis Kizos

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The concept of landscape has been increasingly used, in the last decades, in policy and land use planning, both in regard to so-called “special” and to “ordinary” or “everyday” landscapes. This has raised the importance of local and public participation in all issues that refer to landscapes and the definition of the groups that “have a stake” in the landscape. In this paper, we provide insights into how stakeholders perceive the dynamics of local processes of landscape change (and continuity and which processes of landscape change they perceive as important, in positive and negative ways, from five communities within the European Union. These landscapes involve different landscape issues “at stake”, different national and local planning and decision-making traditions and practices, and varying degrees of engagement. The understanding of these complexities and the unraveling of the insights is done through the concept of social capital and its different forms. We report on three series of workshops that have been organized to discuss landscape issues and approaches or ideas for landscape management. We witnessed interactions between the different stakeholders and gained insights into how social capital affects landscape change. We found that despite differences, similarities emerged concerning the interplay between “expert” and “local” knowledge and between “insideness” and “outsideness”. Social capital plays an important part, as it provides the template for personal and collective evaluation of landscape changes, who should manage these changes and how they should be managed. These findings are important to develop in-depth insights on dynamics and values of cultural landscapes and visions for re-coupling social and ecological components in cultural landscapes and translate them into policy and management options.

The challenges associated with developing science-based landscape scale management plans.

Science.gov (United States)

Robert C. Szaro; Douglas A. Jr. Boyce; Thomas. Puchlerz

2005-01-01

Planning activities over large landscapes poses a complex of challenges when trying to balance the implementation of a conservation strategy while still allowing for a variety of consumptive and nonconsumptive uses. We examine a case in southeast Alaska to illustrate the breadth of these challenges and an approach to developing a science-based resource plan. Not only...

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Erfu; Wu, Zhuo; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Weimin; Wang, Xiaofan

2016-11-01

In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS-II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010-2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad-leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad-leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types. © 2016

Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

2012-01-01

Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

Resource abundance and distribution drive bee visitation within developing tropical urban landscapes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wojcik, Victoria

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Urban landscapes include a mix of biotic and anthropogenic elements that can interact with and influence species occurrence and behaviour. In order to outline the drivers of bee (Hymenoptera: Apoidea occurrence in tropical urban landscapes, foraging patterns and community characteristics were examined at a common and broadly attractive food resource, Tecoma stans (Bignoniaceae. Bee visitation was monitored at 120 individual resources in three cities from June 2007 to March 2009. Resource characteristics, spatial distribution, and other local and regional landscape variables were assessed and then used to develop descriptive regression models of forager visitation. The results indicated that increased bee abundance and taxon richness consistently correlated with increased floral abundance. Resource distribution was also influential, with more spatially aggregated resources receiving more foragers. Individual bee guilds had differential responses to the variables tested, but the significant impact of increased floral abundance was generally conserved. Smaller bodied bee species responded to floral abundance, resource structure, and proximity to natural habitats, suggesting that size-related dispersal abilities structure occurrence patterns in this guild. Larger bees favoured spatially aggregated resources in addition to increased floral abundance, suggesting an optimization of foraging energetics. The impact of the urban matrix was minimal and was only seen in generalist feeders (African honey bees. The strongly resource-driven foraging dynamics described in this study can be used to inform conservation and management practices in urban landscapes.

An individual-based modelling approach to estimate landscape connectivity for bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corrie H. Allen

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Background. Preserving connectivity, or the ability of a landscape to support species movement, is among the most commonly recommended strategies to reduce the negative effects of climate change and human land use development on species. Connectivity analyses have traditionally used a corridor-based approach and rely heavily on least cost path modeling and circuit theory to delineate corridors. Individual-based models are gaining popularity as a potentially more ecologically realistic method of estimating landscape connectivity. However, this remains a relatively unexplored approach. We sought to explore the utility of a simple, individual-based model as a land-use management support tool in identifying and implementing landscape connectivity. Methods. We created an individual-based model of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis that simulates a bighorn sheep traversing a landscape by following simple movement rules. The model was calibrated for bighorn sheep in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada, a region containing isolated herds that are vital to conservation of the species in its northern range. Simulations were run to determine baseline connectivity between subpopulations in the study area. We then applied the model to explore two land management scenarios on simulated connectivity: restoring natural fire regimes and identifying appropriate sites for interventions that would increase road permeability for bighorn sheep. Results. This model suggests there are no continuous areas of good habitat between current subpopulations of sheep in the study area; however, a series of stepping-stones or circuitous routes could facilitate movement between subpopulations and into currently unoccupied, yet suitable, bighorn habitat. Restoring natural fire regimes or mimicking fire with prescribed burns and tree removal could considerably increase bighorn connectivity in this area. Moreover, several key road crossing sites that could benefit from

Mapping large-area landscape suitability for honey bees to assess the influence of land-use change on sustainability of national pollination services

Science.gov (United States)

Gallant, Alisa L.; Euliss, Ned H.; Browning, Zac

2014-01-01

Pollination is a critical ecosystem service affected by various drivers of land-use change, such as policies and programs aimed at land resources, market values for crop commodities, local land-management decisions, and shifts in climate. The United States is the world's most active market for pollination services by honey bees, and the Northern Great Plains provide the majority of bee colonies used to meet the Nation's annual pollination needs. Legislation requiring increased production of biofuel crops, increasing commodity prices for crops of little nutritional value for bees in the Northern Great Plains, and reductions in government programs aimed at promoting land conservation are converging to alter the regional landscape in ways that challenge beekeepers to provide adequate numbers of hives for national pollination services. We developed a spatially explicit model that identifies sites with the potential to support large apiaries based on local-scale land-cover requirements for honey bees. We produced maps of potential apiary locations for North Dakota, a leading producer of honey, based on land-cover maps representing (1) an annual time series compiled from existing operational products and (2) a realistic scenario of land change. We found that existing land-cover products lack sufficient local accuracy to monitor actual changes in landscape suitability for honey bees, but our model proved informative for evaluating effects on suitability under scenarios of land change. The scenario we implemented was aligned with current drivers of land-use change in the Northern Great Plains and highlighted the importance of conservation lands in landscapes intensively and extensively managed for crops.

Energy landscape Allgaeu; Energielandschaft Allgaeu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-01

In tandems with questions on the energy policy turnaround, the topics cultural landscape history, morphology, actual land use, tourism, settlement development or infrastructure are summarized in regional concepts and designs to a consistent landscape. Thus, a true integration of renewable energies in the landscape enhances existing or creates completely new landscape qualities. Energy supply shall be understood as a component of the every day life world. The energy supply shall not be hidden any more, but it rather should be communicated as the brand 'Allgaeu'.

Geoprospective: from acquired data to scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escalier des Orres, P.; Blanc, P.L.

1994-01-01

This paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radioactive waste deep disposal (RFS N. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. Three periods are considered in the study: the initial period (0-500 years AP) during which only water circulations and heat transfers are considered in the waste-rock interaction problem; the permanent regime period (500-10000 years AP) and the subsequent period (10000-50000 years AP) during which changes in landscape morphology due to human activity and climate changes have to be considered. In particular, global climatic oscillations can lead to glaciations with an amplitude equivalent to those known for the Quaternary period and with possible influence on waste disposals integrity. The simulation of an ice-cap development over Europe has been attempted but no convincing model could be obtained so-far. (J.S.). 11 refs., 3 figs

Principles of landscape architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijhuis, S.

2013-01-01

The Department of Urbanism at the Faculty of Architecture and Built Environment, TU Delft considers urbanism as a planning and design oriented activity towards urban and rural landscapes. It aims to enhance, restore or create landscapes from a perspective of sustainable development, so as to guide,

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tegen, S.

2014-11-01

NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

Landscape Visualisation on the Internet

Science.gov (United States)

Imhof, M. P.; Cox, M. T.; Harvey, D. W.; Heemskerk, G. E.; Pettit, C. J.

2012-07-01

The Victorian Resources Online (VRO) website (http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/vro) is the principal means for accessing landscapebased information in Victoria. In this paper we introduce a range of online landscape visualisations that have been developed to enhance existing static web content around the nature and distribution of Victoria's landforms and soils as well as associated processes. Flash is used to develop online visualisations that include interactive landscape panoramas, animations of soil and landscape processes and videos of experts explaining features in the field as well as landscape "flyovers". The use of interactive visualisations adds rich information multimedia content to otherwise static pages and offers the potential to improve user's appreciation and understanding of soil and landscapes. Visualisation is becoming a key component of knowledge management activities associated with VRO - proving useful for both "knowledge capture" (from subject matter specialists) and "knowledge transfer" to a diverse user base. A range of useful visualisation products have been made available online, with varying degrees of interactivity and suited to a variety of users. The use of video files, animation and interactive visualisations is adding rich information content to otherwise static web pages. These information products offer new possibilities to enhance learning of landscapes and the effectiveness of these will be tested as the next phase of development.

Our Common Landscapes For The Future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, Jesper

2017-01-01

Foreword for Marc Antrop and Veerle van Eetvelde: Landscape Perspectives – The Holistic Nature of Landscapes Our common landscapes for the future by Jesper Brandt The solution of the ecological crisis through a transformation towards sustainable development is the most urgent challenge in our time....... It is not just a question of CO2 and conversion toward renewable energy. The reestablishment and conscious development of our common landscapes at all spatial scales for the combined benefits of biodiversity, our cultural heritage and the preservation and development of ecosystem services will probably...... be the most comprehensive and necessary social task in the future, if a conversion towards a sustainable development shall succeed in due time. This is so because it will be necessary to ensure that the potential material wealth of modern society will be transformed into a good, fruitful and healthy life...

Summary of FY-1978 consultation input for Scenario Methodology Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, B.L.; Benson, G.L.; Craig, R.A.; Harwell, M.A.

1979-11-01

The Scenario Methodology Development task is concerned with evaluating the geologic system surrounding an underground repository and describing the phenomena (volcanic, seismic, meteorite, hydrologic, tectonic, climate, etc.) which could perturb the system and possibly cause loss of repository integrity. This document includes 14 individual papers. Separate abstracts were prepared for all 14 papers

Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nadolski, Rob; Slootmaker, Aad; Hummel, Hans

2009-01-01

Nadolski, R. J., Slootmaker, A., & Hummel, H. G. K. (2009). Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation given at Online Educa. December, 3-4, 2009, Berlin, Germany. [For Powerpoint-version of this presentation. Please

Assessment of the visual landscape impact and dominance of wind tubines in Austria using weighted viewshed maps

Science.gov (United States)

Schauppenlehner, Thomas; Salak, Boris; Scherhaufer, Patrick; Höltinger, Stefan; Schmidt, Johannes

2017-04-01

Due to efficiency reasons and broadly availability of wind, wind energy is in focus of strategies regarding the expansion of renewable energy and energy transition policies. Nevertheless, the dimensions of the wind turbines and rotating dynamics have a significant impact on the landscape scenery and recreation as well as tourism activities. This often leads to local opposition against wind energy projects and is a major criterion regarding the acceptance of wind energy. In the project TransWind, the social acceptance of wind energy is surveyed on the basis of different development scenarios for Austria. Therefore, a GIS-based viewshed indicator was developed to assess the visual impact of different development scenarios as well as the current situation using weighted - regarding distance, amount and masking - viewshed analysis. This weighted viewshed maps for Austria allows a comprehensive evaluation of existing and potential wind energy sites regarding dominance and visual impact and can contribute to the spatial development process of wind energy site. Different regions can be compared and repowering strategies can be evaluated. Due to the large project area, data resolutions, generalized assumptions (e.g. tree heights) and missing data (e.g. solitary trees, small hedges) at local level further analysis are necessary but it supports the assessment of large-scale development scenarios can be identified.

Planetary Landscape Geography

Science.gov (United States)

Hargitai, H.

INTRODUCTION Landscape is one of the most often used category in physical ge- ography. The term "landshap" was introduced by Dutch painters in the 15-16th cen- tury. [1] The elements that build up a landscape (or environment) on Earth consists of natural (biogenic and abiogenic - lithologic, atmospheric, hydrologic) and artificial (antropogenic) factors. Landscape is a complex system of these different elements. The same lithology makes different landscapes under different climatic conditions. If the same conditions are present, the same landscape type will appear. Landscapes build up a hierarchic system and cover the whole surface. On Earth, landscapes can be classified and qualified according to their characteristics: relief forms (morphology), and its potential economic value. Aesthetic and subjective parameters can also be considered. Using the data from landers and data from orbiters we can now classify planetary landscapes (these can be used as geologic mapping units as well). By looking at a unknown landscape, we can determine the processes that created it and its development history. This was the case in the Pathfinder/Sojourner panoramas. [2]. DISCUSSION Planetary landscape evolution. We can draw a raw landscape develop- ment history by adding the different landscape building elements to each other. This has a strong connection with the planet's thermal evolution (age of the planet or the present surface materials) and with orbital parameters (distance from the central star, orbit excentricity etc). This way we can build a complex system in which we use differ- ent evolutional stages of lithologic, atmospheric, hydrologic and biogenic conditions which determine the given - Solar System or exoplanetary - landscape. Landscape elements. "Simple" landscapes can be found on asteroids: no linear horizon is present (not differentiated body, only impact structures), no atmosphere (therefore no atmospheric scattering - black sky as part of the landscape) and no

The Chicken Creek catchment as observatory for early-stage landscape development

Science.gov (United States)

Schaaf, W.; Gerwin, W.; Pohle, I.; Maurer, T. J.

2017-12-01

Constructed in 2005, the Chicken Creek catchment offers unique opportunities to observe ecosystem and landscape development. The site was constructed within the post-mining landscape of a lignite mine in Germany (State of Brandenburg, 100 km southeast from Berlin). Using large mining machinery a clay layer was dumped as an aquiclude covered by a sandy layer as the aquifer of this 6 ha artificial watershed. After leveling the surface no further reclamation measures were applied and the site was left to a non-managed primary succession. A comprehensive monitoring program was established directly after the end of construction works including meteorological, hydrological, biogeochemical and biological parameters. Time series for these measured parameters are available for the last 12 years. Based on these data, the growing interactions between different compartments of the developing landscape give valuable insights into the functioning of ecosystems under transition. We will introduce the site as well as recent analyzes of hydrological data against the background of the ongoing development of the soil and the vegetation cover. The annual water balance was calculated based on known and modeled substrate volumes and water contents. The dynamics of the balance are clearly influenced by the development of the ecosystem, e.g. by the occurrence and rapid propagation of woody species. It was possible to define transitional states, which can be characterized by specific feedback processes between abiotic and biotic compartments. Our results indicate that for small catchments with a highly dynamic ecological development like the Chicken Creek, the knowledge about saturated and unsaturated storage volumes enables a good estimate and closure of the water balance using a rather simple approach. Uncertainties in storage changes partly compensate each other and the high variability of soil moisture in the unsaturated zone is of minor impact compared to the storage volume changes

Flowscapes: Designing infrastructure as landscape

OpenAIRE

Nijhuis, S.; Jauslin, D.T.; Van der Hoeven, F.D.

2015-01-01

Social, cultural and technological developments of our society are demanding a fundamental review of the planning and design of its landscapes and infrastructures, in particular in relation to environmental issues and sustainability. Transportation, green and water infrastructures are important agents that facilitate processes that shape the built environment and its contemporary landscapes. With movement and flows at the core, these landscape infrastructures facilitate aesthetic, functional,...

Research needs for our national landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood L. Shafer

1979-01-01

The prevailing research problem for our national landscapes is: How shall we organize, control, and coordinate public and private development so as to protect, maintain, improve, and manage those landscape features that we value most? Research questions discussed include: environmental/political conflicts, taxation and zoning, landscape classification, public...

Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Romem

2007-07-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine Princé

Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flynn, W.T.

1986-12-01

This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

Local Fitness Landscapes Predict Yeast Evolutionary Dynamics in Directionally Changing Environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Gorter, Florien A; Aarts, Mark G M; Zwaan, Bas J; de Visser, J Arjan G M

2018-01-01

The fitness landscape is a concept that is widely used for understanding and predicting evolutionary adaptation. The topography of the fitness landscape depends critically on the environment, with potentially far-reaching consequences for evolution under changing conditions. However, few studies have assessed directly how empirical fitness landscapes change across conditions, or validated the predicted consequences of such change. We previously evolved replicate yeast populations in the presence of either gradually increasing, or constant high, concentrations of the heavy metals cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), and analyzed their phenotypic and genomic changes. Here, we reconstructed the local fitness landscapes underlying adaptation to each metal by deleting all repeatedly mutated genes both by themselves and in combination. Fitness assays revealed that the height, and/or shape, of each local fitness landscape changed considerably across metal concentrations, with distinct qualitative differences between unconditionally (Cd) and conditionally toxic metals (Ni and Zn). This change in topography had particularly crucial consequences in the case of Ni, where a substantial part of the individual mutational fitness effects changed in sign across concentrations. Based on the Ni landscape analyses, we made several predictions about which mutations had been selected when during the evolution experiment. Deep sequencing of population samples from different time points generally confirmed these predictions, demonstrating the power of landscape reconstruction analyses for understanding and ultimately predicting evolutionary dynamics, even under complex scenarios of environmental change. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Transfer Relations Between Landscape Functions - The Hydrological Point of View

Science.gov (United States)

Fohrer, N.; Lenhart, T.; Eckhardt, K.; Frede, H.-G.

EC market policies and regional subsidy programs have an enormous impact on local land use. This has far reaching consequences on various landscape functions. In the joint research project SFB299 at the Giessen University the effect of land use options on economic, ecological and hydrological landscape functions are under investigation. The continuous time step model SWAT-G (Eckhardt et al., 2000; Arnold et al., 1998) is employed to characterize the influence of land use patterns on hydrological processes. The model was calibrated and validated employing a split sample approach. For two mesoscale watersheds (Aar, 60 km2; Dietzhölze, 81 km2) located in the Lahn-Dill- Bergland, Germany, different land use scenarios were analyzed with regard to their hydrological impact. Additionally the effect of land use change was analyzed with an ecological and an agro-economic model. The impact of the stepwise changing land use was expressed as trade off relations between different landscape functions.

Planning wind turbines in harmony with the landscape. Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-02-01

The report concerns the revision of the plan for the siting of wind turbines in Loegstoer municipality in Denmark. A major aim of the plan is that the wind turbines should not spoil the beauty of the landscape which also includes coastal areas. The already existing plan is described and records are given of the 132 wind turbines, primarily sited in coastal areas. These turbines have been subjected to arbitrary siting which created a disharmonious landscape view. Wind conditions were assessed with a view to finding suitable sites and a map showing 24 prioritized areas with space for 127 wind turbines, with a total capacity of 500 kW, was produced. It is stated that the Loegstoer landscape would be suited by 40 m high turbines and the flatter areas could take even higher ones. Four possible scenarios are described in detail and a great number of large scale coloured photographs illustrate the text. (AB)

Opportunities and challenges for mainstreaming ecosystem services in development planning: perspectives from a landscape level

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Sitas, Nadia E

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Despite much progress in ecosystem services research, a gap still appears to exist between this research and the implementation of landscape management and development activities on the ground, especially within a developing country context...

Monitoring Forest Change in Landscapes Under-Going Rapid Energy Development: Challenges and New Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul D. Pickell

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The accelerated development of energy resources around the world has substantially increased forest change related to oil and gas activities. In some cases, oil and gas activities are the primary catalyst of land-use change in forested landscapes. We discuss the challenges associated with characterizing ecological change related to energy resource development using North America as an exemplar. We synthesize the major impacts of energy development to forested ecosystems and offer new perspectives on how to detect and monitor anthropogenic disturbance during the Anthropocene. The disturbance of North American forests for energy development has resulted in persistent linear corridors, suppression of historical disturbance regimes, novel ecosystems, and the eradication of ecological memory. Characterizing anthropogenic disturbances using conventional patch-based disturbance measures will tend to underestimate the ecological impacts of energy development. Suitable indicators of anthropogenic impacts in forests should be derived from the integration of multi-scalar Earth observations. Relating these indicators to ecosystem condition will be a capstone in the progress toward monitoring forest change in landscapes undergoing rapid energy development.

Exploring Energy Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Wales, David J.

2018-04-01

Recent advances in the potential energy landscapes approach are highlighted, including both theoretical and computational contributions. Treating the high dimensionality of molecular and condensed matter systems of contemporary interest is important for understanding how emergent properties are encoded in the landscape and for calculating these properties while faithfully representing barriers between different morphologies. The pathways characterized in full dimensionality, which are used to construct kinetic transition networks, may prove useful in guiding such calculations. The energy landscape perspective has also produced new procedures for structure prediction and analysis of thermodynamic properties. Basin-hopping global optimization, with alternative acceptance criteria and generalizations to multiple metric spaces, has been used to treat systems ranging from biomolecules to nanoalloy clusters and condensed matter. This review also illustrates how all this methodology, developed in the context of chemical physics, can be transferred to landscapes defined by cost functions associated with machine learning.

Population and development scenarios for EU neighbor countries in the South and East Mediterranean region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groenewold, W.G.F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

2014-01-01

This paper presents four population and development scenarios for 11 South and East Mediterranean countries (SEMC) for the period 2010-2050. Focus of analysis of scenario results is on working age population prospects, economic consequences, migration pressure in four migrant-sending SEMCs (Algeria,

Electricity and heat system development scenarios integrated in the energy system sustainable development in Romania in the period 2005 - 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marin, Otilia; Leca, Aureliu

2004-01-01

After 50 years of centralized economy, since 1989, Romania faces many challenges related to the internal conditions and to the new trends in energy markets over the world as: the existing low efficiency and availability, fast structural changes; the decentralization and privatization of the energy sector with new structures and entities; integration in EU and NATO structures. At present, with transition from the national vertical integrated monopolies to an open market, the determination of the global optimum development scenario of the power and heat sector becomes more important in order to find the policy which can lead the own strategies of different companies involved on market to a sustainable development of the society. The paper presents four long term development scenarios of the electricity and heat sector quantified from different points of view: technical, economical, environmental, social criteria, security of supply, risk diminishing etc and it continues by determining the long term global optimum development scenario integrated in the sustainable energy system. (authors)

The impact of industrial oil development on a protected area landscape: A case study on human population growth and landscape level change in Murchison Falls Conservation Area, Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Dowhaniuk, Nicholas; Hartter, Joel; Congalton, Russell G.; Palace, Michael W.; Ryan, Sadie J.

2016-04-01

Protected areas in Sub-Saharan Africa are sanctuaries for rich biodiversity and are important economic engines for African nations, but they are becoming increasingly threatened by discoveries of mineral deposits within and nearby their boundaries. In 2006, viable oil reserves were discovered in Murchison Falls Conservation Area (MFCA) in northern Uganda. Exploratory and appraisal activities concluded in 2014, and production is expected to begin in 2016. The oil development is associated with a substantial increase in human population outside MFCA, with people seeking jobs, land, and economic opportunity. Concomitant with this change is increased truck traffic, a sprawling and denser road network, and infrastructure within the park, which could have large impacts on both the flora and fauna. We examined the broader protected area landscape and the potential feedbacks from resource development on the ecosystem and local livelihoods. Our analysis combines a land cover analysis using Object Based Image Analysis of Landsat data (2002 and 2014), migration patterns and population change (1959-2014), and qualitative interview data. Our results suggest that most of the larger-scale impacts on the landscape and people are occurring in the western and northern sections, both inside and outside of the park. Additionally, oil development is not the only factor in the region influencing population growth and landscape change. Post conflict regrowth in the north, sugarcane production in the south, and migration to this region from conflict-ridden neighboring countries are also playing a vital role in human migration shaping the MFCA Landscape. Understanding the social and environmental changes and impacts in the MFCA and its surrounding areas will add to limited literature on the impacts of resource extraction on local, subsistence communities and landscape level change, which will be important as access and pressure for oil and minerals within protected areas continues to rise.

Qualifying Urban Landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clemmensen, Thomas Juel; Nielsen, Tom; Daugaard, Morten

2010-01-01

The article presents an attempt to develop alternatives to the dominant planning and design principles used in building and rebuilding the contemporary urban landscape. The basic idea is that the ‘forces of modernisation’ driving current development might result in a broader and more interesting...... for contemporary urban landscape design practice....... to the task of constructing and improving things. With this goal, a set of objectives based in important insights from recent urban theory are formulated constituting the normative spine of the analysis of a number of found situations as basis for formulating eight generic concepts of qualification...

Assessment of natural and cultural landscape capacity to proposals the ecological model of tourism development (case study for the area of the Zamagurie region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drábová-Degro Monika

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Agricultural and industrial conditions are not favourable in the uphill and mountain areas of the Zamagurie region, and tourism is often the only opportunity to create new jobs, develop the habitation areas and avoid the emigration of local inhabitants. The Walachian and Sholtys colonization has transformed the landscape and created unique significant spatial landscape elements that are traditionally utilized for agricultural purposes, and create a unique esthetical landscape preserved till the present times. This case study has been aimed at developing and applying the new quantification methods using GIS tools for evaluation of localizing, selective realization and environmental preconditions of the landscape, representing recreational (cultural services of the landscape ecological systems, based on selected indicators. To evaluate the localizing preconditions of the landscape, we referred to the landscape-ecological complex geo-databases (LEC (Thematic maps - internal ground document of ZB GIS , 2013, completed with the field survey during the period 2013−2014 and identification of secondary landscape structure elements (SLS and selected morphometric indicators. While evaluating the selected town-planning, demographical and social-economic indicators, we quantified the selective landscape preconditions of tourism development. The realization preconditions were reviewed according to communication accessibility and material-technical equipment. As for environmental preconditions, we reviewed the presence of protected territory and landscape environmental load.

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harald Kling

2014-07-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

Welfare, Prosperity and Quality of the Living Environment. A scenario study for the Netherlands in 2040

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janssen, L.H.J.M.; Okker, V.R.; Schuur, J.

2006-01-01

Long-term trends such as the decreasing household size, the ageing population, international migration, economic growth, and increasing personal welfare, will change the Dutch natural and built environment significantly. This national foresight exercise analyses the combined impact of these trends on various aspects of the Dutch urban and rural landscape, including residential and industrial land use, traffic and transport, energy, agriculture, nature and landscape, water safety, and environment and health. Quantitative forecasts illustrate these trends as well as their effect on the natural and built environment. The study assesses the long-term effects of current policy, given the international economic and demographic context of the Netherlands. Its qualitative and quantitative results should serve as a reference for policy-makers involved in spatial planning, housing, natural resources, infrastructure, and the environment. By exploring how land use and various aspects of the living environment may develop on the long run (2040), the study shows when current policy objectives may come under pressure, and which new issues may emerge. The long-term future of the Dutch population and economic development and, consequently, of its natural and built environment is highly dependent on international factors. Two critical factors of uncertainty stand out: (1) to which extent will nations and international trade blocks cooperate and exchange, giving up some of their cultural identity and sovereignty? (2) how will governments balance between market forces and a strong public sector? These international political choices determine four possible scenarios for the Netherlands: Global Economy: emphasis on international cooperation and private responsibilities; Strong Europe: emphasis on international cooperation and public responsibilities; Transatlantic Markets: emphasis on national sovereignty and private responsibilities; and Regional Communities: emphasis on national

A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manns PJ

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

Learning topography with Tangible Landscape games

Science.gov (United States)

Petrasova, A.; Tabrizian, P.; Harmon, B. A.; Petras, V.; Millar, G.; Mitasova, H.; Meentemeyer, R. K.

2017-12-01

Understanding topography and its representations is crucial for correct interpretation and modeling of surface processes. However, novice earth science and landscape architecture students often find reading topographic maps challenging. As a result, many students struggle to comprehend more complex spatial concepts and processes such as flow accumulation or sediment transport.We developed and tested a new method for teaching hydrology, geomorphology, and grading using Tangible Landscape—a tangible interface for geospatial modeling. Tangible Landscape couples a physical and digital model of a landscape through a real-time cycle of hands-on modeling, 3D scanning, geospatial computation, and projection. With Tangible Landscape students can sculpt a projection-augmented topographic model of a landscape with their hands and use a variety of tangible objects to immediately see how they are changing geospatial analytics such as contours, profiles, water flow, or landform types. By feeling and manipulating the shape of the topography, while seeing projected geospatial analytics, students can intuitively learn about 3D topographic form, its representations, and how topography controls physical processes. Tangible Landscape is powered by GRASS GIS, an open source geospatial platform with extensive libraries for geospatial modeling and analysis. As such, Tangible Landscape can be used to design a wide range of learning experiences across a large number of geoscience disciplines.As part of a graduate level course that teaches grading, 16 students participated in a series of workshops, which were developed as serious games to encourage learning through structured play. These serious games included 1) diverting rain water to a specified location with minimal changes to landscape, 2) building different combinations of landforms, and 3) reconstructing landscapes based on projected contour information with feedback.In this poster, we will introduce Tangible Landscape, and

Landscape Studio

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Lundsgaard

2017-01-01

Landscape studio documents is the biography of the method 'design conversation' and contributes to the way we work with landscapes. The blog communicates renewed landscape didactics and leads to the innovation of design practices.......Landscape studio documents is the biography of the method 'design conversation' and contributes to the way we work with landscapes. The blog communicates renewed landscape didactics and leads to the innovation of design practices....

Time, Space and the History of Agricultural Landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svenningsen, Stig Roar; Christensen, Andreas Aagaard

history, especially as the rate of changes in cultural landscapes has increased during the last 40 years as the result of the development in the agro-industrial sector. However landscape changes rarely occur as abrupt and sudden breaks, but more as gradual process over long time periods corresponding...... with development in farming technology, modes of production and social organization. The majority of sources material to landscape history are of geographic nature, such as cartographic material, aerial imagery, photographs and paintings and opposite to the gradual nature of changes in the landscape, most sources...... to the physical structure of landscapes has a fixed temporal nature depicting the landscape at time of record, often at different spatial scales. This creates a challenge for Environmental history of European agricultural landscapes to produce a framework, which can incorporate these differences in temporal...

Scenario analysis for biodiversity conservation: a social-ecological system approach in the Australian Alps.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Michael; Lockwood, Michael; Moore, Susan A; Clement, Sarah

2015-03-01

Current policy interventions are having limited success in addressing the ongoing decline in global biodiversity. In part, this is attributable to insufficient attention being paid to the social and governance processes that drive decisions and can undermine their implementation. Scenario planning that draws on social-ecological systems (SES) analysis provides a useful means to systematically explore and anticipate future uncertainties regarding the interaction between humans and biodiversity outcomes. However, the effective application of SES models has been limited by the insufficient attention given to governance influences. Understanding the influence governance attributes have on the future trajectory of SES is likely to assist choice of effective interventions, as well as needs and opportunities for governance reform. In a case study in the Australian Alps, we explore the potential of joint SES and scenario analyses to identify how governance influences landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes. Novel aspects of our application of these methods were the specification of the focal system's governance attributes according to requirements for adaptive capacity, and constraining scenarios according to the current governance settings while varying key social and biophysical drivers. This approach allowed us to identify how current governance arrangements influence landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes, and establishes a baseline from which the potential benefits of governance reform can be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential for integrated landscape management to fulfil Europe's commitments to the Sustainable Development Goals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mann, Carsten; Garcia-Martin, Maria; Raymond, Christopher M.; Shaw, Brian J.; Plieninger, Tobias

2018-01-01

The aim of this perspective essay is to discuss how integrated landscape management (ILM) can contribute to the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda in Europe. Challenges for sustainable development become evident in the emergence of land-use conflicts. Facing multiple,

Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes: a spatially explicit approach to support sustainable soil management.

Science.gov (United States)

Forouzangohar, Mohsen; Crossman, Neville D; MacEwan, Richard J; Wallace, D Dugal; Bennett, Lauren T

2014-01-01

Soil degradation has been associated with a lack of adequate consideration of soil ecosystem services. We demonstrate a broadly applicable method for mapping changes in the supply of two priority soil ecosystem services to support decisions about sustainable land-use configurations. We used a landscape-scale study area of 302 km(2) in northern Victoria, south-eastern Australia, which has been cleared for intensive agriculture. Indicators representing priority soil services (soil carbon sequestration and soil water storage) were quantified and mapped under both a current and a future 25-year land-use scenario (the latter including a greater diversity of land uses and increased perennial crops and irrigation). We combined diverse methods, including soil analysis using mid-infrared spectroscopy, soil biophysical modelling, and geostatistical interpolation. Our analysis suggests that the future land-use scenario would increase the landscape-level supply of both services over 25 years. Soil organic carbon content and water storage to 30 cm depth were predicted to increase by about 11% and 22%, respectively. Our service maps revealed the locations of hotspots, as well as potential trade-offs in service supply under new land-use configurations. The study highlights the need to consider diverse land uses in sustainable management of soil services in changing agricultural landscapes.

Change in the forested and developed landscape of the Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada, USA, 1940-2002

Science.gov (United States)

Raumann, C.G.; Cablk, Mary E.

2008-01-01

The current ecological state of the Lake Tahoe basin has been shaped by significant landscape-altering human activity and management practices since the mid-1850s; first through widespread timber harvesting from the 1850s to 1920s followed by urban development from the 1950s to the present. Consequences of landscape change, both from development and forest management practices including fire suppression, have prompted rising levels of concern for the ecological integrity of the region. The impacts from these activities include decreased water quality, degraded biotic communities, and increased fire hazard. To establish an understanding of the Lake Tahoe basin's landscape change in the context of forest management and development we mapped, quantified, and described the spatial and temporal distribution and variability of historical changes in land use and land cover in the southern Lake Tahoe basin (279 km2) from 1940 to 2002. Our assessment relied on post-classification change detection of multi-temporal land-use/cover and impervious-surface-area data that were derived through manual interpretation, image processing, and GIS data integration for four dates of imagery: 1940, 1969, 1987, and 2002. The most significant land conversion during the 62-year study period was an increase in developed lands with a corresponding decrease in forests, wetlands, and shrublands. Forest stand densities increased throughout the 62-year study period, and modern thinning efforts resulted in localized stand density decreases in the latter part of the study period. Additionally forests were gained from succession, and towards the end of the study period extensive tree mortality occurred. The highest rates of change occurred between 1940 and 1969, corresponding with dramatic development, then rates declined through 2002 for all observed landscape changes except forest density decrease and tree mortality. Causes of landscape change included regional population growth, tourism demands

New infrastructures, new landscapes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiara Nifosì

2014-06-01

Full Text Available New infrastructures, new landscapes AbstractThe paper will discuss one recent Italian project that share a common background: the relevance of the existing maritime landscape as a non negotiable value. The studies will be discussed in details a feasibility study for the new port in Monfalcone. National infrastructural policies emphasize competitiveness and connection as a central issue incultural, economic and political development of communities . Based on networks and system development along passageways that make up the European infrastructural armor; the two are considered at the meantime as cause and effect of "territorialisation”. These two views are obviously mutually dependent. It's hard to think about a strong attractiveness out of the network, and to be part of the latter encourages competitiveness. Nonetheless this has proved to be conflictual when landscape values and the related attractiveness are considered.The presented case study project, is pursuing the ambition to promote a new approach in realizing large infrastructures; its double role is to improve connectivity and to generate lasting and positive impact on the local regions. It deal with issues of inter-modality and the construction of nodes and lines which connects Europe, and its markets.Reverting the usual approach which consider landscape project as as a way to mitigate or to compensate for the infrastructure, the goal is to succeed in realizing large infrastructural works by conceiving them as an occasion to reinterpret a region or, as extraordinary opportunities, to build new landscapes.The strategy proposed consists in achieving structural images based on the reinforcement of the environmental and historical-landscape systems. Starting from the reinterpretation of local maritime context and resources it is possible not just to preserve the attractiveness of a specific landscape but also to conceive infrastructure in a more efficient way. 

Semiotics in landscape design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karsten Jorgensen

1997-03-01

Full Text Available This paper claims that concepts of language can help us create better and more relevant landscape design. It is based on research undertaken by Karsten Jørgensen (1989, and subsequent studies carried out at the department of Land Use and Landscape Planning at the Agricultural University in Norway. The 'signs' that constitute the design language are categorised using the analytical vocabulary of landscape design; for example, elements, materials, effects and shapes. Studies of these signs are based on elements of semiotics and cognitive science, especially the Umwelt-theories developed by Jakob von Uexküll (Hoffmeyer 1994. We are constantly exposed to numerous signs of different kinds. Everywhere in society we see signs around us; for example, traffic signs, advertising signs and logos. It is therefore relevant to introduce the term 'semiosphere' in order to focus on the significance of semiosis at all levels of activity in the world, from cellular activities, to complex systems of development such as those found in a population. This study focuses on the semantic aspects of landscape architecture. In explaining the meaning of a statement, it is useful to have a set of rules or 'codes' to correlate a specific expression with a specific interpretation. These codes may be based on conventions, or on similarity between or stylisation of objects, such as natural or cultural landscapes. In any case, they are based on the interpreter's language and 'mind-structure'. At a general level, it is only possible to study sign content. To analyse meaning in landscape design you have to look at the context; for example, the overall composition of a garden or park and the situation, which includes the interpreter's cultural background, their experiences and so on. In other words, you have to analyse a specific case to be able to speak reasonably about meaning in landscape (designs.

Legislative Framework for Landscape Planning in Latvia

Science.gov (United States)

Nitavska, Natalija; Zigmunde, Daiga

2017-10-01

With the adoption and the ratification of the European Landscape Convention a legally justified need for a clear landscape policy was grounded in the European countries. It includes the elaboration of the new and the improvement of the existing legislative documents on landscape planning, protection and management. The aim of the particular study is to analyse the existing legislative documents in Latvia influencing landscape planning on different scales / and the implementation of the European Landscape Convention. The study emphasizes the complex structure of the Latvian legislative framework affected by the distribution of the normative documents under the various ministries. Therefore, the main problem is unclear responsibility levels and organizational system for solving the issues regarding landscape planning, protection and management. Thus the various discussions between the involved disciplines and responsible institutions are arising. Two groups of the legislative documents influencing the implementation of the landscape policy in Latvia are detected within the study. The first group is strategic documents determining main landscape planning principles and directions at European, national, regional and professional or sectoral level. The second group is operational documents providing a set of actions for the landscape planning, protection and management at the local or the municipality level. The study concludes that operational documents developed by the municipalities are in high importance because of their direct influence on the landscape planning in Latvia. This often leads to the different landscape planning requirements included in the normative documents of the neighbouring municipalities, although the spatial and ecological borders of the visual landscape do not fit with the formal borders of the municipalities. Thus, it is essential to develop the common principles and actions that would be incumbent on all municipalities to provide the

Trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and economic development in five tropical forest landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandker, Marieke; Ruiz-Perez, Manuel; Campbell, Bruce Morgan

2012-01-01

of conservation or can benefit conservation, but in all cases sustained poverty negatively affects conservation in the long term. Most scenarios with better outcomes for conservation come at a cost for development and the financial benefits of payments for environmental services (PES) are not sufficient...... to compensate for lost opportunities to earn cash. However, implementation of strategies for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in locations with low population densities come close to overcoming opportunity costs. Environmental services and subsistence income enhance...... the attractiveness of conservation scenarios to local people and in situations where these benefits are obvious, PES may provide the extra cash incentive to tip the balance in favor of such a scenario. The paper stresses the importance of external factors (such as industrial investments and the development...

Landscape Builder: Software for the creation of initial landscapes for LANDIS from FIA data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William Dijak

2013-06-01

Full Text Available I developed Landscape Builder to create spatially explicit landscapes as starting conditions for LANDIS Pro 7.0 and LANDIS II landscape forest simulation models from classified satellite imagery and Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA data collected over multiple years. LANDIS Pro and LANDIS II models project future landscapes by simulating tree growth, tree species succession, disease, insects, fire, wind, and management disturbance. Landscape Builder uses inventory plot attributes from the FIA inventory database, FIA unit map, National Forest type map, National Forest size class map, land cover map, and landform map to assign FIA plot attributes to raster pixels representing a real forest landscape. In addition to creating a detailed map of current (initial forest landscape conditions, the software produces specific files required for use in LANDIS Pro 7.0 or LANDIS II format. Other tools include the ability to create a dominant species and age-class map from previously created LANDIS maps, a tool to create a dominant species and age-class map from a stand map and field plot data, and a tool to convert between Esri ascii rasters and Erdas file format types.

Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

2007-01-01

Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

Fitness Landscapes of Functional RNAs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ádám Kun

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The notion of fitness landscapes, a map between genotype and fitness, was proposed more than 80 years ago. For most of this time data was only available for a few alleles, and thus we had only a restricted view of the whole fitness landscape. Recently, advances in genetics and molecular biology allow a more detailed view of them. Here we review experimental and theoretical studies of fitness landscapes of functional RNAs, especially aptamers and ribozymes. We find that RNA structures can be divided into critical structures, connecting structures, neutral structures and forbidden structures. Such characterisation, coupled with theoretical sequence-to-structure predictions, allows us to construct the whole fitness landscape. Fitness landscapes then can be used to study evolution, and in our case the development of the RNA world.

Developing Learning Scenarios for Educational Web Radio: a Learning Design Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Triantafyllou, Evangelia; Liokou, Effrosyni; Economou, Anastasia

2018-01-01

schools. In this paper, we present a survey study that aimed to evaluate a Visual Learning Design (VLD) approach for developing educational scenari-os in web radio. The study results indicated that the VLD approach helped teachers to think about the educational aspects of the web radio production...

Classification of Farmland Landscape Structure in Multiple Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, P.; Cheng, Q.; Li, M.

2017-12-01

Farmland is one of the basic terrestrial resources that support the development and survival of human beings and thus plays a crucial role in the national security of every country. Pattern change is the intuitively spatial representation of the scale and quality variation of farmland. Through the characteristic development of spatial shapes as well as through changes in system structures, functions and so on, farmland landscape patterns may indicate the landscape health level. Currently, it is still difficult to perform positioning analyses of landscape pattern changes that reflect the landscape structure variations of farmland with an index model. Depending on a number of spatial properties such as locations and adjacency relations, distance decay, fringe effect, and on the model of patch-corridor-matrix that is applied, this study defines a type system of farmland landscape structure on the national, provincial, and city levels. According to such a definition, the classification model of farmland landscape-structure type at the pixel scale is developed and validated based on mathematical-morphology concepts and on spatial-analysis methods. Then, the laws that govern farmland landscape-pattern change in multiple scales are analyzed from the perspectives of spatial heterogeneity, spatio-temporal evolution, and function transformation. The result shows that the classification model of farmland landscape-structure type can reflect farmland landscape-pattern change and its effects on farmland production function. Moreover, farmland landscape change in different scales displayed significant disparity in zonality, both within specific regions and in urban-rural areas.

Welfare Landscape and Communities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Braae, Ellen Marie

2017-01-01

Danish housing developments of the post-war era were a cornerstone in the implementation of the welfare vision and the overall urban and landscape planning in the post-war period. The new city was a horizontal city and – as it will be my primary ambition to show – a green and landscape-like city....... The landscape came, in Denmark, to play a prominent role and became synonymous with ‘The Good Life’, but it also presented a number of moral imperatives. The article concerns how communities and community feelings found their expression in the Danish ‘welfare landscapes’....

Weathering and landscape evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

2005-04-01

In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

A Landscape Approach to Invasive Species Management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel Lurgi

Full Text Available Biological invasions are not only a major threat to biodiversity, they also have major impacts on local economies and agricultural production systems. Once established, the connection of local populations into metapopulation networks facilitates dispersal at landscape scales, generating spatial dynamics that can impact the outcome of pest-management actions. Much planning goes into landscape-scale invasive species management. However, effective management requires knowledge on the interplay between metapopulation network topology and management actions. We address this knowledge gap using simulation models to explore the effectiveness of two common management strategies, applied across different extents and according to different rules for selecting target localities in metapopulations with different network topologies. These management actions are: (i general population reduction, and (ii reduction of an obligate resource. The reduction of an obligate resource was generally more efficient than population reduction for depleting populations at landscape scales. However, the way in which local populations are selected for management is important when the topology of the metapopulation is heterogeneous in terms of the distribution of connections among local populations. We tested these broad findings using real-world scenarios of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus infesting agricultural landscapes in Western Australia. Although management strategies targeting central populations were more effective in simulated heterogeneous metapopulation structures, no difference was observed in real-world metapopulation structures that are highly homogeneous. In large metapopulations with high proximity and connectivity of neighbouring populations, different spatial management strategies yield similar outcomes. Directly considering spatial attributes in pest-management actions will be most important for metapopulation networks with heterogeneously

A Landscape Approach to Invasive Species Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Lurgi, Miguel; Wells, Konstans; Kennedy, Malcolm; Campbell, Susan; Fordham, Damien A

2016-01-01

Biological invasions are not only a major threat to biodiversity, they also have major impacts on local economies and agricultural production systems. Once established, the connection of local populations into metapopulation networks facilitates dispersal at landscape scales, generating spatial dynamics that can impact the outcome of pest-management actions. Much planning goes into landscape-scale invasive species management. However, effective management requires knowledge on the interplay between metapopulation network topology and management actions. We address this knowledge gap using simulation models to explore the effectiveness of two common management strategies, applied across different extents and according to different rules for selecting target localities in metapopulations with different network topologies. These management actions are: (i) general population reduction, and (ii) reduction of an obligate resource. The reduction of an obligate resource was generally more efficient than population reduction for depleting populations at landscape scales. However, the way in which local populations are selected for management is important when the topology of the metapopulation is heterogeneous in terms of the distribution of connections among local populations. We tested these broad findings using real-world scenarios of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) infesting agricultural landscapes in Western Australia. Although management strategies targeting central populations were more effective in simulated heterogeneous metapopulation structures, no difference was observed in real-world metapopulation structures that are highly homogeneous. In large metapopulations with high proximity and connectivity of neighbouring populations, different spatial management strategies yield similar outcomes. Directly considering spatial attributes in pest-management actions will be most important for metapopulation networks with heterogeneously distributed links. Our

The cultural biography of landscape as an interdisciplinary tool for landscape planning at Banjarmasin City, South Kalimantan Province, Indonesia.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Damayanti, Vera; Spek, Mattheus

2015-01-01

During the twentieth century concepts of cultural landscape have been developed that have led to the inclusion of the cultural dimension in landscape studies. The implication of this in landscape planning and management is that planners should not only comprehend the physical dimension of a

Historical context of interventions in the landscape and in urban spaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Letícia Peret Antunes Hardt

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Since the beginning of their existence, human beings have transformed the natural environment into another one modelled to fit their conveniences, promoting deep changes in the planet’s original environments. In this context, cities, one of Man’s greatest creation, is object of significant interventions on the landscape, as well as of relevant environmental pressures. With the purpose of retrieving experiences, diagnosing realities and forecasting trends, this study, structured into characteristic eras from Pre-History until the Contemporary Age and including perspectives for the future, starts from a worldwide scenario to the specific approach of the Brazilian case, identifying representative periods of the landscape and urban spaces design process. With the foremost purpose of setting up guidelines for projects of urban landscape interventions, subsidies for cities and regions management are presented, based upon theoretical-conceptual approaches and on sustainability principles.

Evaluation of Landscape Impacts and Land Use Change: a Tuscan Case Study for CAP Reform Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iacopo Bernetti

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The study uses information from different sources and on different scales in an integrated set of models in order to analyze possible land use change scenarios arising in response to CAP reform. Five main steps were followed: (1 analysis of past land use changes, (2 multivariate analysis of future land use changes using a neural network time series forecast model (Multi-Layer Perceptron Method, (3 modelization of land use change demand (Markovian Chains Method, (4 allocation of the demand to define transition localization, (5 definition of policy scenarios. The final stage is the comparison of CAP scenarios using a multicriteria decision making approach, in order to supply valuable information to policy makers regarding the possible local effects of key direction changes in CAP.

A Transient Landscape: Geospatial Analysis and Numerical Modeling of Coastal Geomorphology in the Outer Banks, North Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Hardin, Eric Jon

manual digitization lack. Furthermore, the approach can be fully implemented with standard Geographic Information System (GIS) functionality, resulting in efficiency and ease of implementation. With this approach, a raster-based implementation of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) storm impact scale (designed to assess storm vulnerability of barrier islands) was developed. Vulnerability of 4km of the Outer Banks to Hurricane Isabel (2003) was assessed. The demonstrated approach produced vulnerability mapping at the high resolution of the input Digital Elevation Model (DEM)---providing results at the scale needed for local management, in contrast to the USGS approach, which is designed for continental scale vulnerability assessment. However, geospatial techniques cannot fully explain the observed geomorphology. Therefore, we present the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) implementation of the Sauermann model for wind-driven sand transport. The SPH implementation enables the full nonlinearity of the model to be applied to complex scenarios that are typical of coastal landscapes. Through application of the SPH model and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of the windborne surface shear stress (which drives sand transport), we present the sediment flux at two study sites along the Outer Banks. Scenarios were tested that involved steady-state surface shear stress as well as scenarios with intermittent variations in the surface shear stress. Results showed that intermittency in the surface shear stress has the potential to greatly influence the resulting flux. However, the degree to which intermittency does alter the flux is highly dependent on wind characteristics and wind direction relative to the orientation of salient topographic features.

Leading research report for fiscal 1998. Life landscape performance evaluation technology (Landscape Frontier); 1998 nendo sendo chosa kenkyu hokokusho. Seikatsu keikan seino hyoka gijutsu (land scape frontier)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-03-01

For the formulation of guidelines for the construction of an appropriate landscape in the 21st century for the creation of 'landscape industry' in a sustainable society, researches were conducted for the development of landscape materials to constitute living circumstances equipped with 'life landscape' and of technologies for evaluating them. In the landscape designing system subcommittee, the current states and problems of landscape designing systems were analyzed and problems to solve were clarified, these problems involving systems and institutions, people and collaboration, formation of a consensus, systems for production and distribution, etc. In the landscape materials subcommittee, a 'landscape cell' concept in which a life space is the unit was employed in discussing the needs for landscape materials to meet and in extracting the seeds the industry was able to offer for improvement on landscape. In the landscape evaluation subcommittee, the history and today of landscape were reviewed to define what was to be respected in the development of evaluation techniques, and guidelines were extracted towards landscape materials development and landscape industry promotion. In addition, a Landscape Frontier symposium was held. (NEDO)

No interest in landscape? The art of non-participation in Danish landscape planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clausen, Laura Tolnov

2017-01-01

-participation in modern Danish landscape planning. The focus involves a critical investigation of the dominating idea that participation is always ‘a good thing’ and that people will always find it advantageous to participate. Tracing the stages of the author’s own research within participatory processes in Danish...... landscape planning, two key categories are identified as the deeper causes of people’s non-participation: the fear of the intimate, and the fear of the strange. A general conclusion is that non-participation can be explained in terms of ambivalence. The desire for landscape development does exist...

Developing a Robust Strategy Map in Balanced Scorecard Model Using Scenario Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mostafa Jafari

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The key to successful strategy implementation in an organization is for people in the organization to understand it, which requires the establishment of complicated but vital processes whereby the intangible assets are converted into tangible outputs. In this regard, a strategy map is a useful tool that helps execute this difficult task. However, such maps are typically developed based on ambiguous cause-effect relationships that result from the extrapolation of past data and flawed links with possible futures. However, if the strategy map is a mere reflection of the status quo but not future conditions and does not embrace real-world uncertainties, it will endanger the organization since it posits that the current situation will continue. In order to compensate for this deficiency, the environmental scenarios affecting an organization were identified in the present study. Then the strategy map was developed in the form of a scenario-based balanced scorecard. Besides, the effect of environmental changes on the components of the strategy map was investigated using the strategy maps illustrated over time together with the corresponding cash flow vectors. Subsequently, a method was proposed to calculate the degree of robustness of every component of the strategy map for the contingency of every scenario. Finally, the results were applied to a post office.

Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcela Basovníková

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Development of burning plasma and advanced scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luce, T.C.

2005-01-01

Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q ∼ 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque. (author)

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Developing, choosing and using landscape evolution models to inform field-based landscape reconstruction studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Temme, A.J.A.M.; Armitage, J.; Attal, M.; Gorp, van Wouter; Coulthard, T.J.; Schoorl, J.M.

2017-01-01

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) are an increasingly popular resource for geomorphologists as they can operate as virtual laboratories where the implications of hypotheses about processes over human to geological timescales can be visualized at spatial scales from catchments to mountain ranges.

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

Competing Wind Energy Discourses, Contested Landscapes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antje Otto

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The impairment of landscapes is a concern constantly raised against wind energy developments in Germany as in other countries. Often, landscapes or landscape types are treated in the literature as essentialist or at least as uncontested categories. We analyse two examples of local controversies about wind energy, in which “landscape” is employed by supporters and opponents alike, from a poststructuralist and discourse theoretical angle. The aim is to identify and compare landscape constructs produced in the micro discourses of wind energy objectors and proponents at local level (a within each case, (b between the two cases and (c with landscape constructs that were previously found in macro discourses. One major finding is that several different landscapes can exist at one and the same place. Furthermore there seems to be a relatively stable set of competing landscape concepts which is reproduced in specific controversies. The paper concludes by highlighting practical consequences and by identifying promising avenues of further research.

Landscape and land use history of Eurajoki between 1840 and 2007: Analysis of geographical data and landscape transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koistinen, T.; Kaeyhkoe, N.

2011-11-01

Posiva and the University of Turku Laboratory of Computer Cartography (UTU-LCC) agreed in 2010-2011 to conduct a joint research project about the development of the landscape of Eurajoki municipal. The project included transformation of digital historical cadastral maps into spatial data that can be analyzed and visualized with desktop GIS (Geographic Information Systems). Posiva is going to use the historical spatial data created in this project in their next Biosphere Description -report. Titta Koistinen (BSc) from the department of Geography and Geology produced and analyzed the data and docent Niina Kaeyhkoe (University of Turku), Jani Helin (MSc) and Ari Ikonen (MSc) supervised the work. The used methods and fundamental results of the project are represented in this report. The research about the transformation of the rural landscape of Eurajoki is going to continue in the Master's Thesis of Titta Koistinen. When studing scenarios and possible future landscapes of an area, the past landscape has an integral role. In addition historical maps have a key role in landscape transformation studies because they offer spatial data, information about the landscape features and land use of man, from the earlier decades and centuries. In Finland cadastral maps span as far as to the 17th century. Unfortunately this time scale covers only part of the country. Transforming of historical cartographic data into digital spatial data includes many concerns and requires caution. However when the process is conducted well, historical spatial data can provide new possibilities in analyzing, modelling and visualizing of the landscape change and dynamics. In addition transformation to digital spatial data is the only way historical landscape information can be used together with modern spatial data products. In this report the whole transformation process of the digital cadastral maps into vectorized spatial data is depicted. This includes interpritation of the used maps

Decision making on fitness landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.

2017-04-01

We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.

Decision Making on Fitness Landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo

2017-01-01

We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....

Roads Belong In the Urban Landscape

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clemmensen, Thomas Juel

2012-01-01

In spite of being an essential part of the system of automobility and as such playing an important role in the development of urban landscapes, road networks seldom attracts much attention among architects involved in the planning and design of urban landscapes. One reason is probably found...... in the dominance of the zoning approach to planning, where road planning easily becomes isolated and reduced to a matter of traffic regulation and transport economy. Another possible reason could be, as suggested by the Australian landscape architect Christopher Sawyer, that road networks like other...... as landscape architects engage with road networks in profound ways, which moves beyond the purely visual and pictorial? Is it possible to conceptually (re)locate road networks in the landscape? The paper will address these questions by discussing different understandings of landscape and its relation...

Interactions between abiotic filters, landscape structure and species traits as determinants of dairy farmland plant diversity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lomba, A.; Bunce, R.G.H.; Jongman, R.H.G.; Moreira, F.; Honrado, J.

2011-01-01

Maintaining farmland biodiversity in Europe under scenarios of agricultural intensification is a keystone challenge of nature conservation. The recruitment of species from the regional pool to local landscape mosaics and individual patches is known to be determined by multi-scale ecological filters.

Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

2013-12-01

The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

2018-03-15

Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Development of RF Tools and Scenarios for ITER on JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noterdaeme, J.M.; Bobkov, V.; Mantsinen, M.; Salmi, A.; Santala, M.; Rantamaki, K.; Ekedahl, A.; Eriksson, L.G.; Lamalle, P.U.; Lyssoivan, A.; Van Eester, A.D.; Mailloux, J.; Monakhov, I.; Sharapov, S.; Mayoral, M.L.; Meo, F.

2005-01-01

The improvement of lower hybrid (LH) coupling with local puffing of D 2 gas, which made operation at ITER relevant distances (10 cm) and with ELMs (edge localized modes) a reality, has been extended to ITER- like plasma shapes with higher triangularity. With ICRF(ion cyclotron resonance frequency), we developed 4 tools such as -1) localized direct electron heating using the He 3 mode conversion scenario for electron heat transport studies, -2) the production of He 4 ions with energies in the MeV range by 3 ω c acceleration of beam injected ions at 120 keV to investigate Alfven instabilities and test α diagnostics, -3) the stabilisation and destabilization of sawteeth and -4) ICRF as as a wall conditioning. Several ITER relevant scenarios were tested. The (He 3 )H minority heating scenario, considered for the non-activated start-up phase of ITER, produces at very low concentration energetic He 3 which heat the electrons indirectly. For n(He 3 )/n e > 2%, the scenario is transformed to a mode conversion scenario where the electrons are heated directly. The (D)H minority heating is not accessible as the concentration of C 6+ dominates the wave propagation and always leads to a mode conversion. The minority heating of T in D is very effective heating for ions and producing neutrons. New results were obtained in several areas of ICRF physics. Experimental evidence confirmed the theoretical prediction that, as the Larmor radius increases beyond 0.5 times the perpendicular wavelength of the wave, the second harmonic acceleration of the ions decreases to very small levels. An exotic fusion reaction (pT) must be taken into account when evaluating neutron rates. The contribution of fast particles accelerated by ICRF to the plasma rotation was clearly identified, but it is only part of an underlying, and not yet understood, co-current plasma rotation. Progress was made in the physics of ELMs while their effect on the ICRF coupling could be minimized with the conjugate

Modeling pollinator community response to contrasting bioenergy scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashley B Bennett

Full Text Available In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation.

A simple approach for a spatial terrestrial exposure assessment of the insecticide fenoxycarb, based on a high-resolution landscape analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Kai; Resseler, Herbert; Spatz, Robert; Hendley, Paul; Sweeney, Paul; Urban, Martin; Kubiak, Roland

2016-11-01

The objective was to refine the standard regulatory exposure scenario used in plant protection product authorisations by developing a more realistic landscape-related GIS-based exposure assessment for terrestrial non-target arthropods. We quantified the proportion of adjacent off-target area in agricultural landscapes potentially exposed to insecticide drift from applications of the active substance fenoxycarb. High-resolution imagery, landscape classification and subsequent stepwise analysis of a whole landscape using drift and interception functions were applied to selected areas in representative fruit-producing regions in Germany. Even under worst-case assumptions regarding treated area, use rate and drift, less than 12% of the non-agricultural habitat area would potentially be exposed to fenoxycarb drift above regulatory acceptable concentrations. Additionally, if the filtering effect of tall vegetation were taken into account, this number would decrease to 6.6%. Further refinements to landscape elements and application conditions indicate that less than 5% of the habitat area might be exposed above regulatory acceptable concentrations, meaning that 95% of the non-agricultural habitat area will be unimpacted (i.e. no unacceptable effects) and can serve as refuge for recolonisation. Approaches and tools are proposed for standardisable and transparent refinements in regulatory risk assessments on the landscape level. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Successful de-fragmentation of woodland by planting in an agricultural landscape? An assessment based on landscape indicators.