WorldWideScience

Sample records for landscape development scenarios

  1. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  2. Stakeholder and expert-guided scenarios for agriculture and landscape development in a groundwater proction area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vejre, Henrik; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Kristensen, Lone Søderkvist

    2011-01-01

    Nitrate and pesticide leaching led to the designation of groundwater protection zones in Denmark. The protective measures in these zones often clash with local interests in agriculture. Scenarios were used to evaluate the development of a groundwater protection zone in a farming area. Stakeholders...

  3. Teaching Scenario-Based Planning for Sustainable Landscape Development: An Evaluation of Learning Effects in the Cagliari Studio Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the contributions of an intensive educational workshop to advance students’ understanding and skills for collaborative, scenario-based landscape planning. The research design involves a case study workshop with thirty international students and several regional experts as well as a multi-stage, in-process evaluation. The workshop resulted in six different alternative futures for the region of Cagliari, Italy, and a seventh combined version that was considered best by regional reviewers. The students’ learning evaluation showed substantial advances in their relevant understanding and skills. Key aspects of the workshop pedagogy and the evaluation are discussed, and recommendations for future applications presented.

  4. Sustaining forest landscape connectivity under different land cover change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubio, L.; Rodriguez-Freire, M.; Mateo-Sanchez, M. C.; Estreguil, C.; Saura, S.

    2012-11-01

    Managing forest landscapes to sustain functional connectivity is considered one of the key strategies to counteract the negative effects of climate and human-induced changes in forest species pools. With this objective, we evaluated whether a robust network of forest connecting elements can be identified so that it remains efficient when facing different types of potential land cover changes that may affect forest habitat networks and ecological fluxes. For this purpose we considered changes both in the forested areas and in the non-forest intervening landscape matrix. We combined some of the most recent developments in graph theory with models of land cover permeability and least-cost analysis through the forest landscape. We focused on a case of study covering the habitat of a forest dwelling bird (nuthatch, Sitta europaea) in the region of Galicia (NW Spain). Seven land-use change scenarios were analysed for their effects on connecting forest elements (patches and links): one was the simplest case in which the landscape is represented as a binary forest/non-forest pattern (and where matrix heterogeneity is disregarded), four scenarios in which forest lands were converted to other cover types (to scrubland due to wildfires, to extensive and intensive agriculture, and to urban areas), and two scenarios that only involved changes in the non-forested matrix (re naturalization and intensification). Our results show that while the network of connecting elements for the species was very robust to the conversion of the forest habitat patches to different cover types, the different change scenarios in the landscape matrix could more significantly weaken its long-term validity and effectiveness. This is particularly the case when most of the key connectivity providers for the nuthatch are located outside the protected areas or public forests in Galicia, where biodiversity-friendly measures might be more easily implemented. We discuss how the methodology can be applied to

  5. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  6. Exploring Synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapdily developing urban landscape

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset is a journal article that describes the use of a system dynamics model to explore the synergies between transit and development strategies as they give...

  7. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  8. Developing scenarios for the water sector institutional landscape to develop effective responses to water quality challenges in a semi-arid region

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claassen, Marius

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available 2Mind of a Fox, 3WRC E-mail: mclaasse@csir.co.za IntroductIon Knowledge about key drivers and uncertainties of the future can provide information for making better decisions in the present. A deeper understanding of key drivers and trajectories...) South African National Research and Technology Foresight Project. Pretoria 3. Daum J (2001) How Scenario Planning Can Significantly Reduce Strategic Risks and Boost Value in the Innovation Chain. The New Economy Analyst Report - 8 September 4...

  9. Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Lu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecological security is the basic principle of national ecological security. However, analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security remain limited, especially those that consider different scenarios of urban development. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that combines the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S model with the Pressure–State–Response (P-S-R framework to assess landscape ecological security (LES in Huangshan City, China under two scenarios. Our results suggest the following conclusions: (1 the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security are closely related to the urbanization process; (2 although the average values of landscape ecological security are similar under different scenarios, the areas of relatively high security levels vary considerably; and (3 spatial heterogeneity in ecological security exists between different districts and counties, and the city center and its vicinity may face relatively serious declines in ecological security in the future. Overall, the proposed method not only illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of landscape ecological security under different scenarios but also reveals the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems by differentiating between causes, effects, and human responses at the landscape scale. This information is of great significance to decision-makers for future urban planning and management.

  10. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  11. Development scenario for laser fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  12. Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning - a study from Denmark

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tress, B.; Tress, G.

    2003-01-01

    Increasingly, different functions must be integrated simultaneously in the Danish countryside, demanding a common effort of planners, decision-makers, researchers, and stakeholders. The study proposes a transdisciplinary method that combines scenario technique, photorealistic visualisation, and

  13. [Landscape classification: research progress and development trend].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Fa-Chao; Liu, Li-Ming

    2011-06-01

    Landscape classification is the basis of the researches on landscape structure, process, and function, and also, the prerequisite for landscape evaluation, planning, protection, and management, directly affecting the precision and practicability of landscape research. This paper reviewed the research progress on the landscape classification system, theory, and methodology, and summarized the key problems and deficiencies of current researches. Some major landscape classification systems, e. g. , LANMAP and MUFIC, were introduced and discussed. It was suggested that a qualitative and quantitative comprehensive classification based on the ideology of functional structure shape and on the integral consideration of landscape classification utility, landscape function, landscape structure, physiogeographical factors, and human disturbance intensity should be the major research directions in the future. The integration of mapping, 3S technology, quantitative mathematics modeling, computer artificial intelligence, and professional knowledge to enhance the precision of landscape classification would be the key issues and the development trend in the researches of landscape classification.

  14. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schreiner, GO

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

  15. Pest-suppression potential of midwestern landscapes under contrasting bioenergy scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy D Meehan

    Full Text Available Biomass crops grown on marginal soils are expected to fuel an emerging bioenergy industry in the United States. Bioenergy crop choice and position in the landscape could have important impacts on a range of ecosystem services, including natural pest-suppression (biocontrol services provided by predatory arthropods. In this study we use predation rates of three sentinel crop pests to develop a biocontrol index (BCI summarizing pest-suppression potential in corn and perennial grass-based bioenergy crops in southern Wisconsin, lower Michigan, and northern Illinois. We show that BCI is higher in perennial grasslands than in corn, and increases with the amount of perennial grassland in the surrounding landscape. We develop an empirical model for predicting BCI from information on energy crop and landscape characteristics, and use the model in a qualitative assessment of changes in biocontrol services for annual croplands on prime agricultural soils under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios. Our analysis suggests that the expansion of annual energy crops onto 1.2 million ha of existing perennial grasslands on marginal soils could reduce BCI between -10 and -64% for nearly half of the annual cropland in the region. In contrast, replacement of the 1.1 million ha of existing annual crops on marginal land with perennial energy crops could increase BCI by 13 to 205% on over half of the annual cropland in the region. Through comparisons with other independent studies, we find that our biocontrol index is negatively related to insecticide use across the Midwest, suggesting that strategically positioned, perennial bioenergy crops could reduce insect damage and insecticide use on neighboring food and forage crops. We suggest that properly validated environmental indices can be used in decision support systems to facilitate integrated assessments of the environmental and economic impacts of different bioenergy policies.

  16. Stakeholder Perceptions of the Impacts of Rural Funding Scenarios on Mountain Landscapes Across Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bayfield, N.; Barancok, P.; Furger, M.; Sebastia, M.T.; Domínguez, G.; Lapka, Miloslav; Cudlínová, Eva; Vescovo, L.; Ganielle, D.; Cernusca, A.; Tappeiner, U.; Drösler, M.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 8 (2008), s. 1368-1382 ISSN 1432-9840 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Landscape perception * funding scenarios Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 3.376, year: 2008

  17. 3D and 4D Simulations for Landscape Reconstruction and Damage Scenarios: GIS Pilot Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesaresi, Cristano; Van Der Schee, Joop; Pavia, Davide

    2017-01-01

    The project "3D and 4D Simulations for Landscape Reconstruction and Damage Scenarios: GIS Pilot Applications" has been devised with the intention to deal with the demand for research, innovation and applicative methodology on the part of the international programme, requiring concrete results to increase the capacity to know, anticipate…

  18. Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Döllerer, Martin; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources. Copyright

  19. Discussing Landscape Compositional Scenarios Generated with Maximization of Non-Expected Utility Decision Models Based on Weighted Entropies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Pinto Casquilho

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The search for hypothetical optimal solutions of landscape composition is a major issue in landscape planning and it can be outlined in a two-dimensional decision space involving economic value and landscape diversity, the latter being considered as a potential safeguard to the provision of services and externalities not accounted in the economic value. In this paper, we use decision models with different utility valuations combined with weighted entropies respectively incorporating rarity factors associated to Gini-Simpson and Shannon measures. A small example of this framework is provided and discussed for landscape compositional scenarios in the region of Nisa, Portugal. The optimal solutions relative to the different cases considered are assessed in the two-dimensional decision space using a benchmark indicator. The results indicate that the likely best combination is achieved by the solution using Shannon weighted entropy and a square root utility function, corresponding to a risk-averse behavior associated to the precautionary principle linked to safeguarding landscape diversity, anchoring for ecosystem services provision and other externalities. Further developments are suggested, mainly those relative to the hypothesis that the decision models here outlined could be used to revisit the stability-complexity debate in the field of ecological studies.

  20. Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

    2018-01-01

    Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive

  1. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  2. Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqing; Steyer, Gregory D.; Couvillion, Brady R.; John M. Rybczyk,; Beck, Holly J.; William J. Sleavin,; Ehab A. Meselhe,; Mead A. Allison,; Ronald G. Boustany,; Craig J. Fischenich,; Victor H. Rivera-Monroy,

    2014-01-01

    Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km2) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions ( 1,500 m3 s-1) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

  3. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  4. The prosa methodology for scenario development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grupa, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper a methodology for scenario development is proposed. The method is developed in an effort to convince ourselves (and others) that all conceivable future developments of a waste repository have been covered. To be able to assess all conceivable future developments, the method needs to be comprehensive. To convince us and others the method should be structured in such a way that the treatment of each conceivable future development is traceable. The methodology is currently being applied to two Dutch disposal designs. Preliminary results show that the elaborated method functions better than the original method. However, some elements in the method will need further refinement. (author)

  5. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  6. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1997-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  7. Dry forest resilience varies under simulated climate‐management scenarios in a central Oregon, USA landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halofsky, Joshua S; Halofsky, Jessica E; Burcsu, Theresa; Hemstrom, Miles A

    Determining appropriate actions to create or maintain landscapes resilient to climate change is challenging because of uncertainty associated with potential effects of climate change and their interactions with land management. We used a set of climate-informed state-and-transition models to explore the effects of management and natural disturbances on vegetation composition and structure under different future climates. Models were run for dry forests of central Oregon under a fire suppression scenario (i.e., no management other than the continued suppression of wildfires) and an active management scenario characterized by light to moderate thinning from below and some prescribed fire, planting, and salvage logging. Without climate change, area in dry province forest types remained constant. With climate change, dry mixed-conifer forests increased in area (by an average of 21–26% by 2100), and moist mixed-conifer forests decreased in area (by an average of 36–60% by 2100), under both management scenarios. Average area in dry mixed-conifer forests varied little by management scenario, but potential decreases in the moist mixed-conifer forest were lower with active management. With changing climate in the dry province of central Oregon, our results suggest the likelihood of sustaining current levels of dense, moist mixed-conifer forests with large-diameter, old trees is low (less than a 10% chance) irrespective of management scenario; an opposite trend was observed under no climate change simulations. However, results also suggest active management within the dry and moist mixed-conifer forests that creates less dense forest conditions can increase the persistence of larger-diameter, older trees across the landscape. Owing to projected increases in wildfire, our results also suggest future distributions of tree structures will differ from the present. Overall, our projections indicate proactive management can increase forest resilience and sustain some societal

  8. State-and-transition simulation modeling to compare outcomes of alternative management scenarios under two natural disturbance regimes in a forested landscape in northeastern Wisconsin, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Swearingen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Comparisons of the potential outcomes of multiple land management strategies and an understanding of the influence of potential increases in climate-related disturbances on these outcomes are essential for long term land management and conservation planning. To provide these insights, we developed an approach that uses collaborative scenario development and state-and-transition simulation modeling to provide land managers and conservation practitioners with a comparison of potential landscapes resulting from alternative management scenarios and climate conditions, and we have applied this approach in the Wild Rivers Legacy Forest (WRLF area in northeastern Wisconsin. Three management scenarios were developed with input from local land managers, scientists, and conservation practitioners: 1 continuation of current management, 2 expanded working forest conservation easements, and 3 cooperative ecological forestry. Scenarios were modeled under current climate with contemporary probabilities of natural disturbance and under increased probability of windthrow and wildfire that may result from climate change in this region. All scenarios were modeled for 100 years using the VDDT/TELSA modeling suite. Results showed that landscape composition and configuration were relatively similar among scenarios, and that management had a stronger effect than increased probability of windthrow and wildfire. These findings suggest that the scale of the landscape analysis used here and the lack of differences in predominant management strategies between ownerships in this region play significant roles in scenario outcomes. The approach used here does not rely on complex mechanistic modeling of uncertain dynamics and can therefore be used as starting point for planning and further analysis.

  9. A simulation method for the stability analysis of landscape scenarios by using a NetLogo application in GIS environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobattoni, Federica; Lauro, Giuliana; Leone, Antonio; Monaco, Roberto; Pelorosso, Raffaele

    2010-05-01

    Landscape continually evolves under the influence of a complex and broad range of natural processes, directly or indirectly determined by land use, but also under the impact of anthropic actions of planning and territorial management. While processes such as earthquakes, landslides, and so on, are manifestations of this evolutionary process, human decisions concerning land government (cropping, urbanization etc.) may affect dramatically the landscape evolution in a complex mechanism of cause-and-effect leading to accelerated erosion phenomena, hydro-geological instability and flood events. To better understand landscape evolution and change in time, several numerical and empirical models have been developed and implemented with the aim to explore and explain such complex processes; reproducing landscape evolution through models and schematic representation of reality could be a powerful and reliable tool for natural resources planning and decision making in land management. Even understanding interactions and relations between the involved variables, predicting how the system will react to external inputs such as political, social or economic constraints, could be strongly difficult. Decision support systems could help in choosing among possible alternatives by integrating different sources of information and "What if" scenarios could be developed as possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions (Mahmoud M. wt al., 2009). Modelling approaches can be successfully applied to describe and assess both the natural spatial environmental variability and the anthropic impacts at different temporal and spatial scales even if they usually takes into account each aspect of the environmental system separately and without looking directly at landscape as a unique system and without understanding its intrinsic evolution mechanisms (H. Siegrist, 2002, S. Demberel, 2003, A. Brenner, 2005). GIS-based models which

  10. Landscape Architecture in Contemporary Danish Suburban Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roden, Tina Maria

    2013-01-01

    to evaluate and re-think the both loved and criticised suburbia and its incompatibility in relation to the current environmental and climate prospects, these projects suggest that a landscape orientated approach to (sub)urban development can provide more adaptive and flexible frameworks to meet...

  11. How Landscape Ecology Can Promote the Development of Sustainable Landscapes in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Jesper; Antrop, Marc; Ramos, Isabel Loupa

    2013-01-01

    related concepts. International cooperation demands a certain harmonization of these concepts for better mutual understanding. The 2000 European Landscape Convention provided an important momentum to rethink research, policy and management of landscapes from the perspective of sustainable development...

  12. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  13. Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

    2017-04-01

    The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the

  14. Urban landscape architecture design under the view of sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, WeiLin

    2017-08-01

    The concept of sustainable development in modern city landscape design advocates landscape architecture, which is the main development direction in the field of landscape design. They are also effective measures to promote the sustainable development of city garden. Based on this, combined with the connotation of sustainable development and sustainable design, this paper analyzes and discusses the design of urban landscape under the concept of sustainable development.

  15. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  16. The IIASA'83 scenario of energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.

    1984-01-01

    The prospects for natural gas as a major source of energy supply are good. Spurred by the energy crises of the 'seventies, recent exploration for gas resources as well as technological advances in deep drilling have enhanced the picture of gas as a plentiful fossil resource. Technological improvements in transporting gas over large distances, as piped gas and as a liquid, suggest the strong possibility of gas as an important commodity in energy trade. In addition, gas is a high quality and relatively clean fuel, which is especially attractive in today's world of environmental concern for pollution emissions from energy combustion. Such developments led to the design of the IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development, which explored the techno-economic feasibility of the expanded use of gas in energy systems. The work drew on the findings of the IIASA global energy analysis, documented in 'Energy in a Finite World'. All countries of the world were covered in the quantitative analysis, grouped regionally by similarity in energy resources and economic structure and not necessarily on the basis of geographic proximity. The period studied was necessarily the next half century, from 1980 to 2030, in view of the inertia in technological and economic systems and this constraint on the development of energy infrastructures. Global primary energy consumption increases some twofold from 10 TW.a/a to 21.9 TW.a/a over the next 50 years, while economic output globally grows some threefold. The breakdown of global primary energy consumption indicates an absolute increase in the use of all primary energy sources over the study period, with fossil fuels continuing to supply the lion's share of primary energy. The buildup of non-fossil energy sources to global supply levels by 2030 is likely to be constrained by the high capital investments required at a period of modest economic growth and by the sociopolitical controversy surrounding the use of some of these technologies. (author)

  17. Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

  18. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  19. A future scenario of the global regulatory landscape regarding genome-edited crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araki, Motoko

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT The global agricultural landscape regarding the commercial cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops is mosaic. Meanwhile, a new plant breeding technique, genome editing is expected to make genetic engineering-mediated crop breeding more socially acceptable because it can be used to develop crop varieties without introducing transgenes, which have hampered the regulatory review and public acceptance of GM crops. The present study revealed that product- and process-based concepts have been implemented to regulate GM crops in 30 countries. Moreover, this study analyzed the regulatory responses to genome-edited crops in the USA, Argentina, Sweden and New Zealand. The findings suggested that countries will likely be divided in their policies on genome-edited crops: Some will deregulate transgene-free crops, while others will regulate all types of crops that have been modified by genome editing. These implications are discussed from the viewpoint of public acceptance. PMID:27960622

  20. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  1. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  2. Landscape function analysis as a base of rural development strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filepné Kovács Krisztina

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Research on ecosystem services and landscape functions are highly important in landscape ecology, landscape planning and open space design. The terms of ecosystem service and landscape function have been evolved parallel to each other in the scientific literature but have different focus. The term of landscape functions evolved from the scientific field of landscape ecology; it reflects the goods and services provided by regions, landscapes where the cultural, economic factors are important as well. As a framework assessment method with additional economic assessment, a landscape function analysis could be an additional tool of rural development, as it gives a complex analysis of multiple aspects, thus it is highly appropriate to explore, analyze the potentials, resources and limits of landscapes and land use systems. In the current research a landscape function analysis was compared with the rural development strategies in Hungarian micro-regions. We focused on the level of landscape functions and the objectives of the rural development strategies of the study areas. The local development strategies do not focus on territorial differences nor potentials evolving from natural, cultural resources or local constrains. The only exception is tourism development, where in some cases there is a holistic spatial approach which intends to develop the region as a whole.

  3. Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

  4. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

    1998-01-01

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  5. Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    OPTIMAL STRESSOR SCENARIOS FOR NEW OPERATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEMS by Geoffrey E. Fastabend December 2017 Thesis Advisor: Alejandro S... ENERGY SYSTEMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Geoffrey E. Fastabend 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School...developed and tested simulation model for operational energy related systems in order to develop better stressor scenarios for acceptance testing

  6. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  7. Development formalization of the e-learning pedagogical scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олександр Іванович Пушкар

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The place of the pedagogical scenario in development of the e-learning support system has been defined. The process of student's interaction with the system of e-learning in the form of a proper dialogue has been proposed. Peculiarities of constructing typical models of scenarios of academic disciplines have been analyzed. A technique for quantitative assessment of the relationships between the objects of study in the model of a pedagogical scenario has been offered

  8. A landscape ecology approach to assessing development impacts in the tropics: A geothermal energy example in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, J.A.; Trettin, C.C.; O'Neill, R. V.

    2002-01-01

    Geographic information systems (GIS) are increasingly being used in environmental impact assessments (EIA) because GIS is useful for analysing spatial impacts of various development scenarios. Spatially representing these impacts provides another tool for landscape ecology in environmental and geographical investigations by facilitating analysis of the effects of landscape patterns on ecological processes and examining change over time. Landscape ecological principles are applied in this study to a hypothetical geothermal development project on the Island of Hawaii. Some common landscape pattern metrics were used to analyse dispersed versus condensed development scenarios and their effect on landscape pattern. Indices of fragmentation and patch shape did not appreciably change with additional development. The amount of forest to open edge, however, greatly increased with the dispersed development scenario. In addition, landscape metrics showed that a human disturbance had a greater simplifying effect on patch shape and also increased fragmentation than a natural disturbance. The use of these landscape pattern metrics can advance the methodology of applying GIS to EIA.

  9. Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

    2001-01-01

    Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

  10. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  11. Sustainable energy landscapes : designing, planning, and development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stremke, S.; Dobbelsteen, van den A.

    2013-01-01

    In the near future the appearance and spatial organization of urban and rural landscapes will be strongly influenced by the generation of renewable energy. One of the critical tasks will be the re-integration of these sustainable energy landscapes into the existing environment—which people value and

  12. Modeling the impact of future development and public conservation orientation on landscape connectivity for conservation planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lechner, Alex Mark; Brown, Greg; Raymond, Christopher Mark

    2015-01-01

    aspects of conservation planning. Objectives We present an approach for characterizing the potential effects of public conservation orientation and projected future development land use scenarios on landscape connectivity. Methods Using public participation GIS techniques (mail-based surveys linked...... to a mapping component), we classified spatially explicit conservation values and preferences into a conservation orientation index consisting of positive, negative, or neutral scores. Connectivity was then modeled using a least-cost path and graph-network approach for a range of conservation orientation...... and development scenarios in the Lower Hunter region, Australia. Scenarios were modelled through either adding vegetation (positive orientation) or removing vegetation (negative orientation, development). Results Scenarios that included positive conservation orientation link the isolated eastern and western...

  13. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  14. Development and sustainability issues - energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakodkar, Anil

    2000-01-01

    The 20th century has seen an unprecedented rise in the rate of consumption of material and energy resources. These patterns of growth and consumption have caused enormous strains on the available natural resources and the environment. Further, the benefits of available natural resources have been shared in a highly inequitable manner with a small fraction of mankind using up a large fraction of resources to a level that environmental concerns have become a global matter and are threatening to jeopardize the development of the larger fraction of humanity on grounds of global sustainability. While it has been seen that major achievements in almost all areas of human endeavour in recent times, enabling improvements in quality of life and better control over environmental degradation, there is a new challenge now of sustainability of the development process for the majority of human population. The environment with its large inertia, flexibility and stabilising mechanisms has so far some how copped up at least on a global scale with the unprecedented consumption. However, the recent trends indicate that most of the environment related cycles may not be able to take the continued abuse without disastrous global consequences. Piloting and sustaining the legitimate development of societies particularly those which are left far behind in the march towards better quality of life has, therefore, become a matter which needs very urgent consideration and action. There is thus a strong need for charting of a well deliberated goal oriented action plan with a vision that ensures due attention to the interests of all sections of society on the basis of their justifiable needs

  15. Divertor scenario development for NSTX Upgrade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soukhanovskii, V. A.; McLean, A. G.; Meier, E. T.; Rognlien, T. D.; Ryutov, D. D.; Bell, R. E.; Diallo, A.; Gerhardt, S. P.; Kaita, R.; Kolemen, E.; Leblanc, B. P.; Menard, J. E.; Podesta, M.; Scotti, F.

    2012-10-01

    In the NSTX-U tokamak, initial plans for divertor plasma-facing components (PFCs) include lithium and boron coated graphite, with a staged transition to molybdenum. Steady-state peak divertor heat fluxes are projected to reach 20-30 MW/m^2 in 2 MA, 12 MW NBI-heated discharges of up to 5 s duration, thus challenging PFC thermal limits. Based on the recent NSTX divertor experiments and modeling with edge transport code UEDGE, a favorable basis for divertor power handling in NSTX-U is developed. The snowflake divertor geometry and feedback-controlled divertor impurity seeding applied to the lower and upper divertors are presently envisioned. In the NSTX snowflake experiments with lithium-coated graphite PFCs, the peak divertor heat fluxes from Type I ELMs and between ELMs were significantly reduced due to geometry effects, increased volumetric losses and null-point convective redistribution between strike points. H-mode core confinement was maintained at H98(y,2)<=1 albeit the radiative detachment. Additional CD4 seeding demonstrated potential for a further increase of divertor radiation.

  16. Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anniken Enger

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

  17. Evaluation of Landscape Impacts and Land Use Change: a Tuscan Case Study for CAP Reform Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iacopo Bernetti

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The study uses information from different sources and on different scales in an integrated set of models in order to analyze possible land use change scenarios arising in response to CAP reform. Five main steps were followed: (1 analysis of past land use changes, (2 multivariate analysis of future land use changes using a neural network time series forecast model (Multi-Layer Perceptron Method, (3 modelization of land use change demand (Markovian Chains Method, (4 allocation of the demand to define transition localization, (5 definition of policy scenarios. The final stage is the comparison of CAP scenarios using a multicriteria decision making approach, in order to supply valuable information to policy makers regarding the possible local effects of key direction changes in CAP.

  18. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  19. Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

    2018-04-29

    This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

  20. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-03-24

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

  1. Quantifying Trade-Offs Among Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity, and Agricultural Returns in an Agriculturally Dominated Landscape Under Future Land‑Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma C. Underwood

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2017v15iss2art4Change in land use in agriculturally dominated areas is often assumed to provide positive benefits for land-owners and financial agricultural returns at the expense of biodiversity and other ecosystem services. For an agriculturally dominated area in the Central Valley of California we quantify the trade-offs among ecosystem services, biodiversity, and the financial returns from agricultural lands. We do this by evaluating three different landscape management scenarios projected to 2050 compared to the current baseline: habitat restoration, urbanization, and enhanced agriculture. The restoration scenario benefited carbon storage services and increased landscape suitability for birds, and also decreased ecosystem disservices (nitrous oxide emissions, nitrogen leaching, although there was a trade-off in slightly lower financial agricultural returns. Under the urbanization scenario, carbon storage, suitability for birds, and agricultural returns were negatively affected. A scenario which enhanced agriculture, tailored to the needs of a key species of conservation concern (Swainson’s Hawk, Buteo swainsoni, presented the most potential for trade-offs. This scenario benefitted carbon storage and increased landscape suitability for the Swainson's Hawk as well as 15 other focal bird species. However, this scenario increased ecosystem disservices. These spatially explicit results, generated at a scale relevant to land management decision-makers in the Central Valley, provide valuable insight into managing for multiple benefits in the landscape and an approach for assessing future land-management decisions.

  2. Using scenario based programming to develop embedded control software

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettiol, F.

    2015-01-01

    A new paradigm to develop embedded software is waking up the interest of companies. Its name is Scenario Based Programming and it claims to be a good approach to develop embedded software. Live Sequence Charts (LSC), a visual language supporting the paradigm, enables the developers to specify a

  3. Modelling agro-forestry scenarios for ammonia abatement in the landscape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bealey, W J; Braban, C F; Famulari, D; Theobald, M R; Reis, S; Sutton, M A; Loubet, B; Reay, D S

    2014-01-01

    Ammonia emissions from livestock production can have negative impacts on nearby protected sites and ecosystems that are sensitive to eutrophication and acidification. Trees are effective scavengers of both gaseous and particulate pollutants from the atmosphere making tree belts potentially effective landscape features to support strategies aiming to reduce ammonia impacts. This research used the MODDAS-THETIS a coupled turbulence and deposition turbulence model, to examine the relationships between tree canopy structure and ammonia capture for three source types—animal housing, slurry lagoon, and livestock under a tree canopy. By altering the canopy length, leaf area index, leaf area density, and height of the canopy in the model the capture efficiencies varied substantially. A maximum of 27% of the emitted ammonia was captured by tree canopy for the animal housing source, for the slurry lagoon the maximum was 19%, while the livestock under trees attained a maximum of 60% recapture. Using agro-forestry systems of differing tree structures near ‘hot spots’ of ammonia in the landscape could provide an effective abatement option for the livestock industry that complements existing source reduction measures. (paper)

  4. Landscape development, forest fires, and wilderness management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, H E

    1974-11-08

    Both the landforms and the vegetation of the earth develop to states that are maintained in dynamic equilibrium. Short-term equilibrium of a hillslope or river valley results from intersection between erosional and depositional tendencies, controlled by gravitational force and the efficiency of the transporting medium. Long-term equilibrium of major landforms depends on crustal uplift and the resistance of the rock to weathering. In most parts of the world landscape evolves toward a peneplain, but the reduction rate approaches zero as the cycle progresses, and the counteracting force of crustal uplift intercedes before the end form is reached. Davis described this theoretical model in elegant terms. Leopold and Hack have provided a new and quantitative understanding of short-range geomorphic interactions that tend to discredit the Davisian model in the eyes of many. However, the substitute models of quasi-equilibrium or dynamic equilibrium merely describe short-range situations in which this or that Davisian stage is maintained despite uplift or downwasting. Given crustal stability and an unchanging climate, landforms would presumably still evolve through Davisian stages. However, the Davis model cannot be tested, for despite tremendous inventions in geochronology and impressive advances in stratigraphic knowledge, we cannot yet establish the rates or even the fact of crustal uplift in most areas. We are left with an unresolvable problem, for the sedimentary records of erosional history are largely inaccessible, undatable, and indecipherable, at least in the detail necessary to describe long-term evolution of the landscape. We know more about the evolution and maintenance of vegetation assemblages than about landform evolution, for even long-term vegetation sequences are within the scope of radiocarbon dating, and the biostratigraphic record is detailed. Even here, however, distinctions between short-term and long-term situations must be made, so that Clements

  5. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  6. Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

    2002-01-01

    Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

  7. Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2014-01-01

    Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

  8. Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-08-15

    Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

  9. Design storytelling with future scenario development; envisioning "the museum"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eggink, Wouter; Albert de la Bruheze, Adri A.

    2015-01-01

    There are different ways to tell stories with design. This paper shows possibilities of telling stories by envisioning the future. Overall, design has the very ability to envision, visualize and express things that do not exist yet. We introduce the Future Scenario Development Design methodology as

  10. Summary of FY-1978 consultation input for Scenario Methodology Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, B.L.; Benson, G.L.; Craig, R.A.; Harwell, M.A.

    1979-11-01

    The Scenario Methodology Development task is concerned with evaluating the geologic system surrounding an underground repository and describing the phenomena (volcanic, seismic, meteorite, hydrologic, tectonic, climate, etc.) which could perturb the system and possibly cause loss of repository integrity. This document includes 14 individual papers. Separate abstracts were prepared for all 14 papers

  11. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production: Evaluating Best Management Practices for Biofuel Feedstock Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha, Miae [Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA; Wu, May [Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. This study evaluates the improvement of water sustainability through an integrated landscaping management strategy, where landscaping design, land management operations, crop systems, and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) play equal roles. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, with a focus on implementing riparian buffers and converting low productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass while benefiting soil and water quality. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the impact of integrated landscape design on nutrients, suspended sediments, and flow on the watershed and subbasin scales. First, the study evaluated the representation of buffer strip as a vegetative barrier and as a riparian buffer using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. For the riparian buffer, the area ratio method tends to be more conservative, especially in nitrate loadings, while the trapping efficiency method generates more optimistic results. The differences between the two methods increase with buffer width. The two methods may not be comparable for the field-scale vegetative barrier simulation because of limitations in model spatial resolution. Landscape scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (1) current land use, (2) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (3) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that when low productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively, in the watershed surface streams. The reduction was less extensive when riparian buffer strips (30 m or 50 m) were applied to the stream network at 1.4% of total land area

  12. Generic Regional Development Strategies from Local Stakeholders' Scenarios - an Alpine Village Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Loibl

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the participatory elaboration of strategies for sustainable regional development in an Alpine tourist region in Austria to cope with global change effects evolving locally, considering climate change, economic change as well as (local societal change. Local stakeholders in an Alpine village in the Montafon region contributed in workshops to achieve the final results: participant teams conducted system analyses of the regional system to explore key elements of the region. Narrative scenarios described possible positive and negative development trends and indicated the critical issues controlling future development; 3D-images of landscape transition simulations show the consequences of certain development directions. Alternative development directions supported the local stakeholders to elaborate regional development strategies. In the end, the scientist team derived generic strategies for Alpine regions based on the locally developed strategy bundle. The article presents the intention, progress and outcome of the participatory approach and elaborates the potential to derive generic strategies from local ones and discusses the possibly occurring conflicts regarding cross-scale transfers of these local strategies. Overall, tourism was seen as a key element for future regional development, which can on the one hand derogate Alpine regions and is on the other hand threatened by climate change and diminution of landscape attractiveness. The suggested development strategies will help to cope with global change issues mitigating the negative consequences on the local society and environment.

  13. The joint SKI/SKB scenario development project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Johan

    1989-12-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Power and Swedish Nuclear Waste Management Co. have carried through a joint scenario development exercise of a hypothetical repository for spent fuel and high level waste based on the KBS-3 concept as disposal method. The starting point has been the 'Sandia methodology', but the actual implementation of the steps in this method has required new strategy development. The work started with a relatively large internationally composed group meeting, which identified an extensive list of features, events and processes (FEPs) that might influence the long term performance of a repository. All these FEPs as well as its possible causes and consequences have been entered into a computer database. The next step in the development was to remove from the list approximately 30 FEPs of low probability or negligible consequence. In a following step a large number of the FEPs on the original list were assigned to the 'PROCESS SYSTEM', comprising the complete set of 'deterministic' chemical and physical processes that might influence the release from the repository to the biosphere. A scenario is defined by a set of external conditions which will influence the processes in the PROCESS SYSTEM. Approximately 50 FEPs were left representing external conditions. The remaining FEPs could all be combined to form scenarios, but it is concluded that it is not meaningful to discuss combinations without first analysing the consequence and probability of the individual conditions. An important aspect of the work is that the developed strategy includes a framework for the documentation of the complete chain of scenario development. Such a transparent documentation makes possible an extensive review and updating of the set of scenarios. A reviewing process, open to very broad groups in the society, is probably the best means of assuring reasonable completeness and of building up a general consensus on what are the critical issues for the safe disposal of radioactive waste

  14. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  15. Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

    2017-12-01

    There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

  16. Landscape impact assessment of wind farm development in Dyfed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blandford, C.; White, S.; Garrad, A.D.; Morgan, C.A.

    1992-01-01

    Chris Blandford Associates, in association with Garrad Hassan and Partners, was commissioned to carry out a landscape impact assessment of wind turbine development in Dyfed. The study aims to identify those areas in Dyfed where, in terms of landscape impact, local authorities might seek either to exclude or encourage wind turbine development; provide guidelines to assist local authorities in judging the impact of wind turbine developments on the landscape; provide a basis and framework for the preparation of planning policy guidelines for acceptable wind turbine and wind farm developments in Dyfed. The study context reviews current Government energy and planning policies for the encouragement of wind turbine developments, as set out in the ''non-fossil fuel obligation'' and the draft planning policy guidance note for renewable energy published last December. (author)

  17. Landscape impact assessment for wind turbine development in Dyfed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blandford, C.; White, S.; Thomas, B.; Osment, F.

    1994-01-01

    The study aims to identify those areas in Dyfed where, in terms of landscape impact, local authorities might seek to exclude or encourage wind turbine development, provide guidelines which will assist local authorities in judging the impact of wind turbine developments on the landscape and provide a basis and framework for the preparation of planning policy guidelines for acceptable wind turbine and wind farm developments in Dyfed. The study context reviews current Government energy and planning policies for the encouragement of wind turbine developments. Dyfed County Council's relevant Structure Plan policies are also considered, as are the new draft policies relating directly to wind energy released by other authorities. The sizes and status of planning applications are summarised and the landscape implications and precedent set by the test case at Mynydd-y-Cemais is discussed. Public perception of wind power is reviewed in the context of research in Europe and the USA. (author)

  18. Trends in scenario development methodologies and integration in NUMO's approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebashi, Takeshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Kawamura, Hideki; Gaus, Irina; Vomvoris, Stratis; Martin, Andrew J.; Smith, Paul

    2011-01-01

    The development of scenarios for quantitative or qualitative analysis is a key element of the assessment of the safety of geological disposal systems. As an outcome of an international workshop attended by European and the Japanese implementers, a number of features common to current methodologies could be identified, as well as trends in their evolution over time. In the late nineties, scenario development was often described as a bottom-up process, whereby scenarios were said to be developed in essence from FEP databases. Nowadays, it is recognised that, in practice, the approaches actually adopted are better described as top-down or 'hybrid', taking as their starting point an integrated (top-down) understanding of the system under consideration including uncertainties in initial state, sometimes assisted by the development of 'storyboards'. A bottom-up element remains (hence the term 'hybrid') to the extent that FEP databases or FEP catalogues (including interactions) are still used, but the focus is generally on completeness checking, which occurs parallel to the main assessment process. Recent advances focus on the consistent treatment of uncertainties throughout the safety assessment and on the integration of operational safety and long term safety. (author)

  19. Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Ruge

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

  20. Development of Accident Scenarios and Quantification Methodology for RAON Accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yongjin; Jae, Moosung

    2014-01-01

    The RIsp (Rare Isotope Science Project) plans to provide neutron-rich isotopes (RIs) and stable heavy ion beams. The accelerator is defined as radiation production system according to Nuclear Safety Law. Therefore, it needs strict operate procedures and safety assurance to prevent radiation exposure. In order to satisfy this condition, there is a need for evaluating potential risk of accelerator from the design stage itself. Though some of PSA researches have been conducted for accelerator, most of them focus on not general accident sequence but simple explanation of accident. In this paper, general accident scenarios are developed by Event Tree and deduce new quantification methodology of Event Tree. In this study, some initial events, which may occur in the accelerator, are selected. Using selected initial events, the accident scenarios of accelerator facility are developed with Event Tree. These results can be used as basic data of the accelerator for future risk assessments. After analyzing the probability of each heading, it is possible to conduct quantification and evaluate the significance of the accident result. If there is a development of the accident scenario for external events, risk assessment of entire accelerator facility will be completed. To reduce the uncertainty of the Event Tree, it is possible to produce a reliable data via the presented quantification techniques

  1. Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žiga Malek

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

  2. Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Like many urban areas around the world, Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, USA are experiencing population growth and sprawl that is putting stress on the transportation system. Light rail and denser transit-oriented development are being considered as possible solutio...

  3. Regionalized Development and Maintenance of the Intestinal Adaptive Immune Landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agace, William Winston; McCoy, Kathy D.

    2017-01-01

    The intestinal immune system has the daunting task of protecting us from pathogenic insults while limiting inflammatory responses against the resident commensal microbiota and providing tolerance to food antigens. This role is particularly impressive when one considers the vast mucosal surface...... and changing landscape that the intestinal immune system must monitor. In this review, we highlight regional differences in the development and composition of the adaptive immune landscape of the intestine and the impact of local intrinsic and environmental factors that shape this process. To conclude, we...... review the evidence for a critical window of opportunity for early-life exposures that affect immune development and alter disease susceptibility later in life....

  4. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  5. Maps From Mud—Using the Multiple Scenario Approach to Reconstruct Land Cover Dynamics From Pollen Records: A Case Study of Two Neolithic Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jane Bunting

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Pollen records contain a wide range of information about past land cover, but translation from the pollen diagram to other formats remains a challenge. In this paper, we present LandPolFlow, a software package enabling Multiple Scenario Approach (MSA based land cover reconstruction from pollen records for specific landscapes. It has two components: a basic Geographic Information System which takes grids of landscape constraints (e.g., topography, geology and generates possible “scenarios” of past land cover using a combination of probabilistic and deterministic placement rules to distribute defined plant communities within the landscape, and a pollen dispersal and deposition model which simulates pollen loading at specified points within each scenario and compares that statistically with actual pollen assemblages from the same location. Goodness of fit statistics from multiple pollen site locations are used to identify which scenarios are likely reconstructions of past land cover. We apply this approach to two case studies of Neolithisation in Britain, the first from the Somerset Levels and Moors and the second from Mainland, Orkney. Both landscapes contain significant evidence of Neolithic activity, but present contrasting contexts. In Somerset, wet-preserved Neolithic remains such as trackways are abundant, but little dry land settlement archaeology is known, and the pre-Neolithic landscape was extensively wooded. In Orkney, the Neolithic archaeology includes domestic and monumental stone-built structures forming a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and the pre-Neolithic landscape was largely treeless. Existing pollen records were collated from both landscapes and correlated within new chronological frameworks (presented elsewhere. This allowed pollen data to be grouped into 200 year periods, or “timeslices,” for reconstruction of land cover through time using the MSA. Reconstruction suggests that subtle but clear and persistent impacts of

  6. Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

    2014-04-01

    The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

  7. a Cultural Landscape Information System Developed with Open Source Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudyk, C.; Müller, H.; Uhler, M.; Würriehausen, F.

    2013-07-01

    Since 2010, the state of Rhineland-Palatinate in Germany has developed a cultural landscape information system as a process to secure and further enrich aggregate data about its cultural assets. In an open dialogue between governing authorities and citizens, the intention of the project is an active cooperation of public and private actors. A cultural landscape information system called KuLIS was designed as a web platform, combining semantic wiki software with a geographic information system. Based on data sets from public administrations, the information about cultural assets can be extended and enhanced by interested participants. The developed infrastructure facilitates local information accumulation through a crowdsourcing approach. This capability offers new possibilities for e-governance and open data developments. The collaborative approach allows governing authorities to manage and supervise official data, while public participation enables affordable information acquisition. Gathered cultural heritage information can provide incentives for touristic valorisation of communities or concepts for strengthening regional identification. It can also influence political decisions in defining significant cultural regions worth of protecting from industrial influences. The presented cultural landscape information allows citizens to influence the statewide development of cultural landscapes in a democratic way.

  8. Financial landscapes reconstructed: the fine art of mapping development.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouman, F.J.A.; Hospes, O.

    1994-01-01

    This book contains a collection of readings on financial intermediation for which the landscape is designedly chosen as a metaphor, to stimulate reflection on all the critical dimensions of financial and quasi-financial services in the processes of development. The metaphor is not only used to

  9. Development of RF Tools and Scenarios for ITER on JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noterdaeme, J.M.; Bobkov, V.; Mantsinen, M.; Salmi, A.; Santala, M.; Rantamaki, K.; Ekedahl, A.; Eriksson, L.G.; Lamalle, P.U.; Lyssoivan, A.; Van Eester, A.D.; Mailloux, J.; Monakhov, I.; Sharapov, S.; Mayoral, M.L.; Meo, F.

    2005-01-01

    The improvement of lower hybrid (LH) coupling with local puffing of D 2 gas, which made operation at ITER relevant distances (10 cm) and with ELMs (edge localized modes) a reality, has been extended to ITER- like plasma shapes with higher triangularity. With ICRF(ion cyclotron resonance frequency), we developed 4 tools such as -1) localized direct electron heating using the He 3 mode conversion scenario for electron heat transport studies, -2) the production of He 4 ions with energies in the MeV range by 3 ω c acceleration of beam injected ions at 120 keV to investigate Alfven instabilities and test α diagnostics, -3) the stabilisation and destabilization of sawteeth and -4) ICRF as as a wall conditioning. Several ITER relevant scenarios were tested. The (He 3 )H minority heating scenario, considered for the non-activated start-up phase of ITER, produces at very low concentration energetic He 3 which heat the electrons indirectly. For n(He 3 )/n e > 2%, the scenario is transformed to a mode conversion scenario where the electrons are heated directly. The (D)H minority heating is not accessible as the concentration of C 6+ dominates the wave propagation and always leads to a mode conversion. The minority heating of T in D is very effective heating for ions and producing neutrons. New results were obtained in several areas of ICRF physics. Experimental evidence confirmed the theoretical prediction that, as the Larmor radius increases beyond 0.5 times the perpendicular wavelength of the wave, the second harmonic acceleration of the ions decreases to very small levels. An exotic fusion reaction (pT) must be taken into account when evaluating neutron rates. The contribution of fast particles accelerated by ICRF to the plasma rotation was clearly identified, but it is only part of an underlying, and not yet understood, co-current plasma rotation. Progress was made in the physics of ELMs while their effect on the ICRF coupling could be minimized with the conjugate

  10. DNA Methylation Landscapes of Human Fetal Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slieker, Roderick C.; Roost, Matthias S.; van Iperen, Liesbeth; Suchiman, H. Eka D; Tobi, Elmar W.; Carlotti, Françoise; de Koning, Eelco J P; Slagboom, P. Eline; Heijmans, Bastiaan T.; Chuva de Sousa Lopes, Susana M.

    2015-01-01

    Remodelling the methylome is a hallmark of mammalian development and cell differentiation. However, current knowledge of DNA methylation dynamics in human tissue specification and organ development largely stems from the extrapolation of studies in vitro and animal models. Here, we report on the DNA

  11. Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzelli, Claudia; Vandecasteele, Ine; Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo; Mari i Rivero, Ines; Pelletier, Nathan; Batelaan, Okke; Lavalle, Carlo

    2015-01-01

    Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact. -- Highlights: •A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. •The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. •Of land used for industrial purposes, 7–12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. •If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. •The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact

  12. Productive Urban Landscape In Developing Home Garden In Yogyakarta City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwan, S. N. R.; Sarwadi, A.

    2017-10-01

    Home garden is one type of agroecosystem that supports ecosystem services even in the urban settlement. The studies involved literature references and field survey along with a framework of the productive urban landscape that support ecosystem services in home garden. Productive urban landscape provided environmentally, socially and economically benefits that contained in ecosystem services. Problems on limited space in the urban settlement have to be managed by modified home garden system in order to work for ecosystem service in developing productive landscape. This study aimed to assess home garden (Pekarangan) system in a cluster of high density settlement in Yogyakarta City. Structured interview and vegetation identification of home garden have been conducted on 80 samples in Rejowinangun Kotagede District, Yogyakarta City. People showed enthusiasm in ecosystem services provided by home garden “Pekarangan Produktif” through developing productive urban landscape. Some benefits on ecosystem services of home garden were revealed on this study consisted of food production for sale (4.7%), home industry (7.69%), aesthetics (22.65%), food (14.10%), biodiversity (10.68%), ecosystem (12.82%), education (2.56), social interaction (11.54%), recreation (4.70%), and others (8.55%). Nevertheless, vegetation and other elements of home gardens have been managed irregularly and in particularly, the planned home gardens were only 17.07%. Actually, home gardens provided a large set of ecosystem services including being cultural services those are the category most valued. The urban people almost hided the understanding of the cultural benefit of ecosystem services of home garden, even though Yogyakarta has known the cultural city. Thus, urban home garden, as way as “Pekarangan Produktif” in the limited space that managed and planned sustainably, provide many benefits of ecosystem services in a productive urban landscape.

  13. The alpha activity of soils in relation to landscape development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pepper, R G; Quirk, J P [Western Australia Univ., Nedlands. Dept. of Soil Science and Plant Nutrition

    1976-02-01

    The alpha activity of soils and the degree of the equilibrium of the thorium series has been related to the age of soils developed on a truncated laterite landscape in southwestern Australia. The uplift of the old lateritic plateau has formed a sequence of erosional and depositional surfaces which form the parent materials of the present-day soils. These surfaces because of their different relative ages have been subjected to different degrees of weathering and leaching. The alpha activity of the soils formed on these different landscape surfaces is influenced firstly by the amount of weathering that the surface has undergone, and secondly by the degree of leaching that the soil has undergone as evidenced by profile development. It has been found that the younger soils have higher alpha activities with the thorium series tending more towards equilibrium when compared with older soils, where the alpha activity is lower due to the leaching of the daughter nuclides from the profile.

  14. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  15. Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

  16. INNOVATION LANDSCAPE AS PRIORITY CONDITION OF INDUSTRIAL AND TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Salikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A rational development of industrial territories and regions implies the improvement of their cooperation in economic sector of the country, perfecting the territorial structure of husbandry, rational exploration of natural resources, usage of promising technologies, mobilization of investment etc. Along with this, the improvement of the existing and formation of a new industrial manufacture structure should be implemented with consideration of key market aspects, connected with competitiveness and innovations. Thus, an important condition of industrial structure development is the formation of innovative landscape representing the entirety of innovative territorial subjects that use innovative technologies, management tools for creation the product. In narrow sense, innovative landscape can be understood as an integrative entirety of parameters including socio-economic conditions, state administrative body, innovative economic subjects, existence of innovative infrastructure and cluster interactions etc. A methodic approach to comparative estimation of industrial regions innovative landscape parameters considered in the article lets identify its state and structural characteristics with the purpose of making more reasonable decisions on productive forces location and o n the increase of innovativeness level of industrial territories and regions.

  17. Preservation and Development: The Cultural Landscape and Heritage Paradox in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valk, van der A.J.J.

    2014-01-01

    Heritage managers and spatial planners have traditionally developed conservation-oriented (that is, defensive) strategies to protect archaeological–historical values in rural landscapes. However, despite increasing government policy conservation efforts, rural landscapes face continuous

  18. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALGORITHM FOR CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL SCENARIO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. S. Borisova

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the article deals with the development of an algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy. Since the "Strategy for socio-economic development of the Lipetsk region for the period until 2020" does not contain scenarios for the development of the region, the algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy is formalized. The scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region according to the indicators of the Program of social and economic development are calculated: "Quality of life index", "Average monthly nominal wage", "Level of registered unemployment", "Growth rate of gross regional product", "The share of innovative products in the total volume of goods shipped, works performed and services rendered by industrial organizations", "Total volume of atmospheric pollution per unit GRP" and "Satisfaction of the population with the activity of executive bodies of state power of the region". Based on the calculation of development scenarios, the dynamics of the values of these indicators was developed in the implementation of scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region in 2016–2020. Discounted financial costs of economic participants for realization of scenarios of development of economy of the Lipetsk region are estimated. It is shown that the current situation in the economy of the Russian Federation assumes the choice of a paradigm for the innovative development of territories and requires all participants in economic relations at the regional level to concentrate their resources on the creation of new science-intensive products. An assessment of the effects of the implementation of reasonable scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region was carried out. It is shown that the most acceptable is the "base" scenario, which assumes a consistent change in the main indicators. The specific economic

  19. Systematic approach to scenario development using FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, L.E.E.; Lever, D.A.

    2001-01-01

    UK regulatory requirements require that the 'assessed radiological risk ... to a representative member of the potentially exposed group at greatest risk should be consistent with a risk target of 10 -6 per year' and that risks should be 'summed over all situations that could give rise to exposure to the group'. It is a further requirement that a repository performance assessment provides a 'comprehensive record of the judgements and assumptions on which the risk assessments are based'. In order to meet these requirements, Nirex, working with AEA Technology, has developed an approach to performance assessment based on the identification and analysis of features, events and processes (FEPs). The objectives of the approach are to provide a comprehensive, traceable and clear presentation of a performance assessment for a deep geological radioactive waste repository. The approach to scenario development is fundamental to the overall Nirex strategy for performance assessment, eventually leading to a repository safety case for regulatory submission. This paper outlines the main concepts of the approach, illustrated with examples of work undertaken by Nirex to demonstrate its practicality. Due to the current status of the Nirex repository programme, the approach has not yet been used to conduct a full performance assessment of a repository located at a specific site. (authors)

  20. From Forest Landscape to Agricultural Landscape in the Developing Tropical Country of Malaysia: Pattern, Process, and Their Significance on Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Saiful Arif; Hezri, Adnan A.

    2008-11-01

    Agricultural expansion and deforestation are spatial processes of land transformation that impact on landscape pattern. In peninsular Malaysia, the conversion of forested areas into two major cash crops—rubber and oil palm plantations—has been identified as driving significant environmental change. To date, there has been insufficient literature studying the link between changes in landscape patterns and land-related development policies. Therefore, this paper examines: (i) the links between development policies and changes in land use/land cover and landscape pattern and (ii) the significance and implications of these links for future development policies. The objective is to generate insights on the changing process of land use/land cover and landscape pattern as a functional response to development policies and their consequences for environmental conditions. Over the last century, the development of cash crops has changed the country from one dominated by natural landscapes to one dominated by agricultural landscapes. But the last decade of the century saw urbanization beginning to impact significantly. This process aligned with the establishment of various development policies, from land development for agriculture between the mid 1950s and the 1970s to an emphasis on manufacturing from the 1980s onward. Based on a case study in Selangor, peninsular Malaysia, a model of landscape pattern change is presented. It contains three stages according to the relative importance of rubber (first stage: 1900-1950s), oil palm (second stage: 1960s-1970s), and urban (third stage: 1980s-1990s) development that influenced landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity. The environmental consequences of this change have been depicted through loss of biodiversity, geohazard incidences, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. The spatial ecological information can be useful to development policy formulation, allowing diagnosis of the country’s “health” and sustainability

  1. Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohammed, John L; Sorensen, Barbara; Ong, James C; Li, Jian

    2005-01-01

    .... Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice handling specific situations using faithful simulations of the equipment they will use on the job has proven to be an extremely effective method...

  2. LANDPLANER (LANDscape, Plants, LANdslide and ERosion): a model to describe the dynamic response of slopes (or basins) under different changing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Mauro; Torri, Dino; Santi, Elisa; Bacaro, Giovanni; Marchesini, Ivan

    2014-05-01

    approaches have been proposed to model separately landslide and erosion processes, only few attempts were made to model both jointly, mostly integrating pre-existing models. To overcome this limitation we develop a new model called LANDPLANER (LANDscape, Plants, LANdslide and ERosion), specifically design to describe the dynamic response of slopes (or basins) under different changing scenarios including: (i) changes of meteorological factors, (ii) changes of vegetation or land-use, (iii) and changes of slope morphology. The was applied in different study area in order to check its basic assumptions, and to test its general operability and applicability. Results show a reasonable model behaviors and confirm its easy applicability in real cases.

  3. Future energy demand in Laos. Scenario alternatives for development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luukkanen, J.; Kouphokham, K.; Panula-Ontto, J. [and others

    2012-07-01

    Energy production in Laos is still dominated by traditional fuels. Fuelwood in the main source of energy and most of the energy is consumed at households for cooking. Increase in the number of cars and motorbikes is rapidly increasing the use of imported petroleum products. Electrification is one of the central targets of the Lao government. The electrification rate has increased fast in Laos and in the year 2010 over 70 % households had electricity supply. The target is to have 90 % access to electricity by the year 2020. The World Bank regards the electrification of Lao PDR to be a success story. This paper deals with the present and future energy consumption in Laos. First the historical trends of energy use in different sectors are analysed. The future scenarios are constructed using LaoLinda model. Four different future alternative development paths are analysed using the model results. The energy use data source for the analysis is from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) of Lao PDR. Economic and other data is from the Department of Statistics of Lao PDR.

  4. Brook trout distributional response to unconventional oil and gas development: Landscape context matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, Eric R.; Petty, J. Todd; Maloney, Kelly O.; Young, John A.; Faulkner, Stephen; Slonecker, Terry; Milheim, Lesley E.; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Niles, Jonathan M.

    2018-01-01

    We conducted a large-scale assessment of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development effects on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution. We compiled 2231 brook trout collection records from the Upper Susquehanna River Watershed, USA. We used boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis to predict occurrence probability at the 1:24,000 stream-segment scale as a function of natural and anthropogenic landscape and climatic attributes. We then evaluated the importance of landscape context (i.e., pre-existing natural habitat quality and anthropogenic degradation) in modulating the effects of UOG on brook trout distribution under UOG development scenarios. BRT made use of 5 anthropogenic (28% relative influence) and 7 natural (72% relative influence) variables to model occurrence with a high degree of accuracy [Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) = 0.85 and cross-validated AUC = 0.81]. UOG development impacted 11% (n = 2784) of streams and resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 126 (4%). Most streams impacted by UOG had unsuitable underlying natural habitat quality (n = 1220; 44%). Brook trout were predicted to be absent from an additional 26% (n = 733) of streams due to pre-existing non-UOG land uses (i.e., agriculture, residential and commercial development, or historic mining). Streams with a predicted and observed (via existing pre- and post-disturbance fish sampling records) loss of occurrence due to UOG tended to have intermediate natural habitat quality and/or intermediate levels of non-UOG stress. Simulated development of permitted but undeveloped UOG wells (n = 943) resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 27 additional streams. Loss of occurrence was strongly dependent upon landscape context, suggesting effects of current and future UOG development are likely most relevant in streams near the probability threshold due to pre-existing habitat degradation.

  5. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  6. An analysis of historic and projected climate scenarios in the Western United States using hydrologic landscape classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    : Identifying areas of similar hydrology within the United States and its regions (hydrologic landscapes - HLs) is an active area of research. HLs are being used to construct spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, a...

  7. Synergetic Development Assessment of Urban River System Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingya Qiao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents Synergetic Development Assessment (SDA as a methodology to evaluate the environmental, economic, and social performance of an urban river system landscape from the perspective of sustainability. SDA is based on synergetics and its “order parameters” theory, proposed as a science to study the self-organization of complex systems. A case study of river system landscapes in China was carried out by, first, simplifying the composite system into three subsystems: environmental, economic, and social; then, going on to construct a hierarchical structure to explore the order parameters as the evaluation index. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to get the weight of the evaluation index to complete the assessment index system. At the same time, a Sequential Synergy Degree Model was built to accomplish the SDA. We find that from 2005 to 2015, the order degree of the environmental subsystem developed slowly, with fluctuations, and that river pattern is the key factor. Meanwhile, the order degree of the economic subsystem fluctuated widely, which significantly depended on the changing value of water resources, and the order degree of social subsystem improved continuously, with social culture lagging far behind. As a whole, the synergy degree of the composite system developed orderly at a corresponding low level, which was in low synergy from 2005 to 2009 and then in general synergy up to 2015.

  8. Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

    2015-12-31

    A new Web-based application, titled “Application of Flood Regressions and Climate Change Scenarios To Explore Estimates of Future Peak Flows”, has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, that allows a user to apply a set of regression equations to estimate the magnitude of future floods for any stream or river in New York State (exclusive of Long Island) and the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. The regression equations that are the basis of the current application were developed in previous investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are described at the USGS StreamStats Web sites for New York (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/new_york.html) and Vermont (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/Vermont.html). These regression equations include several fixed landscape metrics that quantify aspects of watershed geomorphology, basin size, and land cover as well as a climate variable—either annual precipitation or annual runoff.

  9. Scenarios for ITS telecommunications technologies development in Poland for the years 2007-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazimierz BARTCZAK

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The article shows four scenarios for the development of ITS communications technologies in Poland for the years 2007-2013. Global Business Network methodology is used to make up the scenarios. The basic dimensions of the scenarios are (a type of sectors in the national economy (public vs. private, (b type of communications technology (wireline vs. wireless. The scenarios present possible futures.

  10. Cultural Policies Development in Italian Regions between Heritage and Landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluigi Di Giangirolamo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how cultural policies developed in Italy. In particular the attention is focused especially on the development of public policies between the Sixties and the first half of the Seventies. This period can be defined as a summit of the debate and policies that in Italy began, after the Unification and stills on today. The decentralization of the State’s functions and consequently the first regional initiatives in the field of culture are a central passage of this process. In this way, in the relationship between national and local organisation appears a new attention to the development of cultural policies. A definition of heritage and landscape that is nowadays related to the evolution of cultural itineraries that involves local institution in cooperation and interaction towards the support of this form of sustainable and cultural tourism.

  11. Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; Guan, Qingfeng; McCoy, Tim D.

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.

  12. Landscape architecture as an entity of property development in Wilayah Persekutuan, Putrajaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Nasyution bin Abdul Razak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the relationship between landscape architecture and property development. Landscape architecture emphasizes the nature of conservation, development of public parks, city parks, local parks, artificial forests, lakes, recreational areas, outdoor recreation centers, open space systems and other components of landscape architecture in providing opportunities and benefits for real estate development. Backed by ample literature review, this study reveals the significant relationship between land, real estate and landscape architecture. Landscape architecture which provides an open park and green space can be expanded to benefit the social, environment and economy through optimal used of space in property development project. Hence, this study discusses the objectives which are to determine significant factors in the development of landscape architecture, to identify the importance of landscape architecture in real estate development, and to assess the relationship between landscape architecture and property development land. This study involved 50 respondents from renowned developers; Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Bhd (PJH, Selangor State Development Corporation (PKNS, the local authority; Putrajaya Corporation (PPJ, Kajang Municipal Council (MPKj, relevant agencies; Valuation and Property Services Department-JPPH (Ministry of Finance, Department of Town and Country Planning (Peninsular Malaysia, developers registered with ReHDA and residents / property owners in the study area. To conclude, this study offers adequate benefits to policy makers, also relevant agencies such as the local authorities, landowners, property developers, the relevant professionals and communities on the positive effects and significant relationships between landscape architecture and property development.

  13. Open Scenario Study, Phase II Report: Assessment and Development of Approaches for Satisfying Unclassified Scenario Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Oracle) • Mysql (Open Source) • Other What application server software will be needed? • Application Server • CGI PHP /Perl (Open Source...CGI PHP /Perl (Other Open Source software) • ColdFusion (Adobe) • OAS Application Server (Oracle) • .ASP/.NET (Microsoft) • Inmagic DB/textworks I...developers around the world. 9 • Ms Windows® – Microsoft Windows operating system for personal computers • MySQL (Open Source) - the most reliable

  14. Developing Simulated Cyber Attack Scenarios Against Virtualized Adversary Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    enclave, as shown in Figure 11, is a common design for many secure networks. Different variations of a cyber-attack scenario can be rehearsed based...achieved a greater degree of success against multiple variations of an enemy network. E. ATTACK TYPES A primary goal of this thesis is to define and...2013. [33] R. Goldberg , “Architectural principles for virtual computer systems,” Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Harvard Univ., Cambridge

  15. Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

    1999-01-01

    Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited

  16. South-East Asian Region (SEAR): Sea Basin Landscape Mapping for Paleoclimatology & Recent Climate Change Impacts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this work includes the coastal scenario, risks and development of coastal paleoclimatology through landscape mapping; by highlighting the...

  17. Conference on wind power development in the face of landscape and local project acceptability challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victoire Lejzerzon; Sauron, Claire; Villot, Marie; Ratzbor, Guenter; Tausch, Christian; Cagneaux, Bertrand; Jouneau, Agathe; Stemmer, Boris; Huebner, Gundula; Orozco-Souel, Paola; Lhermitte, Charles; Ferus, Elisabeth; Benezech, Philippe; Gunzelmann, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a conference on n wind power development in the face of landscape and local project acceptability challenges. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, participants addressed the following points: the conciliation between landscape protection and wind power development, the definition of landscape environmental quality criteria, the needs and usages of the departments in charge of the treatment of landscape studies in France, the socio-psychological approach of the local acceptability of wind farm projects, the re-powering tool for the improvement of the wind farm integration in the landscape, and the conciliation between the monuments maintenance and wind power development. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Conciliating landscape protection and wind power development goals in France (Marie Villot); 2 - Wind turbines: Conflicts between development goals, landscape and acceptance - Perception and criteria (Guenter Ratzbor); 3 - Bayern's wind power atlas: a planning tool which takes into account the landscape aspects (Christian Tausch); 4 - Landscape assessment in wind farms projects: what and how to do in French administrative procedures? (Bertrand Cagneaux); 5 - Methods for evaluation of landscape for wind farms projects - A French project developer's feedback (Agathe Jouneau); 6 - Landscape Assessment: Methods from German Landscape Practice (Boris Stemmer); 7 - Acceptance of Wind Turbines - Social Psychological Research (Gundula Huebner); 8 - Local consultation: who to involve, when and how? (Paola Orozco-Souel); 9 - Local acceptability: what dialogue concepts and strategies, and how to manage wind energy objection (Charles Lhermitte); 10 - Re-powering and landscape: chances and limits (Elisabeth Ferus); 11 - Wind power and cultural heritage: consultation and dialogue to succeed (Philippe Benezech); 12

  18. Scenarios of socio-economic and energy development of the country up to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsvetanov, P.

    1990-01-01

    The scenarios description is given as the first stage of a procedure of an energy-economy interrelations dynamics study, the other two stages being the formulation and the analysis of the development variants. The scenarios reflect quantitatively the policies and the international conditions for the socio-economic, energy demand and energy supply developments of the country. Two economic development scenarios ('high' - official macroeconomic views and 'low' - economic restructuring and decrease of energy intensity) hierarchically preside over the two corresponding energy demand scenarios of different technological evolutions ('traditional' and 'energy efficiency' oriented one) in the industry, the transport and the domestic and services sectors. Four energy supply system scenarios follow, corresponding to different approaches in the development of the energy conversion technologies and energy carriers, thus constituting a scenario tree of the studies. 16 refs., 2 figs., 7 tab., 1 ann. (R.Ts.)

  19. Relationship between tourism development and vegetated landscapes in Luya Mountain Nature Reserve, Shanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Zhan-Hong; Zhang, Jin-Tun

    2005-09-01

    The relationship between tourism development and vegetated landscapes is analyzed for the Luya Mountain Nature Reserve (LMNR), Shanxi, China, in this study. Indices such as Sensitive Level (SL), Landscape Importance Value (LIV), information index of biodiversity (H'), Shade-tolerant Species Proportion (SSP), and Tourism Influencing Index (TII) are used to characterize vegetated landscapes, the impact of tourism, and their relationship. Their relationship is studied by Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis (TWINSPAN) and Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA). TWINSPAN gives correct and rapid partition to the classification, and DCA ordination shows the changing tendency of all vegetation types based on tourism development. These results reflect the ecological relationship between tourism development and vegetated landscapes. In Luya Mountain Nature Reserve, most plant communities are in good or medium condition, which shows that these vegetated landscapes can support more tourism. However, the occurrence of the bad condition shows that there is a severe contradiction between tourism development and vegetated landscapes.

  20. Developments in strategic landscape monitoring for the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landscape plays an increasingly relevant and prominent role in the protection and mangement of the Earth's terrestrial environments and ecosystems, including the diverse forested, agricultural, wilderness and build-up landscapes within the Nordic countries. However to be meaningful in the Informa...

  1. Introduction of developing a list of MSO generic scenarios for PHWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Wan; Park, Jun Hyun; Bae, Hui Soo [STANDARD Testing and Engineering Ing. Ltd, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Multiple Spurious Operation(MSO) scenarios should contain scenarios threatening Post-fire safe shutdown function by MSO of Safe Shutdown Equipments(SSEs) as well as Non-SSEs. The list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) was developed by industrial survey. Although not all scenarios of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) are considered applicable to every reactor type, this list provides an input about MSO identification and treatment process. If NEI 00-01 is applied to other reactor type, analyst should review applicability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) and consider potential MSO scenarios undescribed in the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). Especially, in PHWR case, there is no list of MSO generic scenarios in Canada or internationally. There are substantial physical variations between NPPs. So some generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) would need validation. Nevertheless, industrial stakeholder have not did any MSO work until now. In this paper, results of first stage research that develop the list of MSO generic scenarios for pressurized heavy water reactor(PHWR) is introduced. According to the review results, specific review of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) is required such as how it applies to PHWR. And criteria was established for review of availability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). However there are still many tasks such as potential scenario review, risk model review and expert panel review.

  2. Developing, choosing and using landscape evolution models to inform field-based landscape reconstruction studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Armitage, J.; Attal, M.; Gorp, van Wouter; Coulthard, T.J.; Schoorl, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) are an increasingly popular resource for geomorphologists as they can operate as virtual laboratories where the implications of hypotheses about processes over human to geological timescales can be visualized at spatial scales from catchments to mountain ranges.

  3. Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

  4. Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

    2014-01-01

    to infrastructure and policies. While the literature on EVs has focused more on the role of electric cars, it could be electric two-wheelers which could make early headway, as is the case in China where nearly 120 million such vehicles had been sold by the end of 2012. Three scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU......The transport sector globally is overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are touted as a way of diversifying the fuel mix and helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. There could also be other co-benefits of EVs, such as improved energy security, decarbonising...... of the electricity sector, CO2 mitigation and reduction in local air pollution. The Indian government has recently launched a national electricity mobility mission to promote EVs. There is, however, much uncertainty in terms of the penetration of EVs in the transport sector, particularly those related...

  5. Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

    2018-01-01

    As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

  6. Developing High-Fidelity Health Care Simulation Scenarios: A Guide for Educators and Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alinier, Guillaume

    2011-01-01

    The development of appropriate scenarios is critical in high-fidelity simulation training. They need to be developed to address specific learning objectives, while not preventing other learning points from emerging. Buying a patient simulator, finding a volunteer to act as the patient, or even obtaining ready-made scenarios from another simulation…

  7. Integrated scenarios of regional development in Ceará and Piauí

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.; Fuhr, Dagmar; Gaiser, T.; Krol, M.S; Frischkorn, H.; de Araújo, J.C.

    2003-01-01

    Scenarios of the future are an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative-quantitative scenarios which show potential developments of

  8. 36 CFR 219.12 - Collaboration and cooperatively developed landscape goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... cooperatively developed landscape goals. 219.12 Section 219.12 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE PLANNING National Forest System Land and Resource Management Planning Collaborative Planning for Sustainability § 219.12 Collaboration and cooperatively developed landscape goals. (a...

  9. Scenario Development Workshop Synopsis. Integration Group for the Safety Case - June 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Paul; Voinis, Sylvie; Griffault, Lise; De Meredieu, Jean; Kwong, Gloria; ); Van Luik, Abraham; Bailey, Lucy; Capouet, Manuel; Depaus, Christophe; Makino, Hitoshi; Leigh, Christi; Kirkes, Ross; Leino, Jaakko; Niemeyer, Matthias; Wolf, Jens; Watson, Sarah; Franke, Bettina; Ilett, Doug; Pastina, Barbara; Weetjens, Eef

    2016-03-01

    Scenario development and selection describes the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information relevant to the potential paths of evolution of a radioactive waste disposal facility (repository) that is necessary to assess its long-term performance and safety. In 1999, the NEA held its first workshop on scenario development in Madrid, Spain, with the objective to review the methods for developing scenarios in safety assessments and their application. Since then, the process of scenario development and analysis for the disposal of radioactive waste has changed and, in 2015, the NEA Integration Group for the Safety Case (IGSC) held a second workshop on this topic at its offices in Paris to further evaluate the experience acquired in developing scenarios since 1999. To prepare for this workshop, the IGSC also launched a survey in 2014 to gather the latest scenario development and uncertainty management strategies used in IGSC member countries. The purposes of the workshop were to (i) provide a forum to review and discuss methods for scenario development and their contribution to the development of recent safety cases (since the 1999 workshop); (ii) examine the latest methods and compare their scope, consistency and function within the overall safety assessment process, based on practical experience of applications; and (iii) provide a basis for producing the present report summarising the current status of scenario methodologies, identifying where sufficient methods exist and any outstanding problem areas. This report provides an overview of the state of the art in scenario development related to the long-term safety of geological repositories for radioactive waste. In particular, it discusses how potential scenarios are developed in safety assessments of radioactive waste that contains long-lived radionuclides. Safety assessment is the process of quantitatively and qualitatively evaluating the safety of a repository, often in support of a

  10. Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

    2008-01-01

    As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

  11. Long-pulse hybrid scenario development in JT-60U

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyama, N.; Isayama, A.; Matsunaga, G.; Suzuki, T.; Takenaga, H.; Sakamoto, Y.; Nakano, T.; Kamada, Y.; Ide, S.

    2009-01-01

    The performance and sustained duration of long-pulse discharges for the 'ITER hybrid scenario' have been improved in JT-60U. The modification of power supply systems for three perpendicular neutral beam (NB) injections provides a long period of central NB heating up to 30 s, which is important for keeping the internal transport barrier (ITB). The peaked density profile in the core plasma can be maintained even when the density at the pedestal increased in the latter phase of the discharge due to the increase in the divertor recycling. Then, the peaked pressure profile attributed to the ITB can be kept constant through the discharge with the peaked power deposition profile. In these long-pulse discharges, MHD activity with toroidal mode number n = 1 is observed even when neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) are suppressed. When the amplitude of the mode in the peripheral region becomes large, the pedestal pressure is degraded. The mode amplitude is sensitive to the toroidal magnetic field (or edge safety factor) and heating power. After the adjustment of the toroidal magnetic field so as to reduce the mode amplitude, a high normalized beta (β N ) of 2.6 and a high thermal confinement enhancement factor (H H98(y,2) > 1) are sustained for 25 s (∼14τ R , where τ R is the current diffusion time) under the ITER relevant small toroidal rotation condition. The peaked pressure profile in low safety factor plasma (safety factor at 95% flux surface q 95 ∼ 3.2) is stable against NTMs up to β N ∼ 3. A high β N H H98(y,2) of 2.6 gives a high G-factor ( β N H H98(y,2) /q 95 2 ) of 0.25 and a peaked pressure profile gives a large bootstrap current fraction (f BS > 0.43).

  12. Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.; Biggs, R.; Zurek, M.

    2007-01-01

    Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple

  13. Integrated Scenarios of Regional Development in Two Semi-Arid States of North-Eastern Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.

    2002-01-01

    Scenario analysis of the future is an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid North-eastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative¿quantitative scenarios that show potential

  14. Population and development scenarios for EU neighbor countries in the South and East Mediterranean region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenewold, W.G.F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents four population and development scenarios for 11 South and East Mediterranean countries (SEMC) for the period 2010-2050. Focus of analysis of scenario results is on working age population prospects, economic consequences, migration pressure in four migrant-sending SEMCs (Algeria,

  15. Biosphere scenario development. An interim report of an SKI, SSI, SKB working group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-11-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co have initiated a project for the development of scenarios for the behaviour of radionuclides in high level waste following deep geological disposal. The main objective is to develop a general consensus of scenarios and conceptual models. Within the project a biosphere scenarios working group was initiated to consider specific questions of the biosphere. This report describes the results of the group's deliberations up to the end of July 1989. A methodology is presented for the development of biosphere scenarios which may be considered alongside scenarios for radionuclide behaviour in the near field and geosphere. Two major biosphere elements affecting processes in the surface environment have been recognised, climate and development. Alternative states for climate and level of development are suggested and each combination can be considered with one or more of a range of biosphere receptors, such as a river or a lake. The features, events and processes relevant to each receptor are presented. Consideration is then given to biosphere assumptions for both gradual and direct releases from the geosphere, as well as biosphere effects on the repository near field or geosphere. The amount of screening which can be done at this stage to limit the number of biosphere scenarios is small. However, considerable potential exists once more details are available for geosphere release scenarios. It may be appropriate to further develop biosphere scenarios, specific to each geosphere release scenario. It may also be appropriate to consider scenarios specifically in relation to the individual radionuclides which dominate geosphere releases. Both these possibilities could result in considerably reduced requirements for calculations

  16. Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijven, B. van; Schers, J.; Vuuren, D.P. van

    2012-01-01

    Promoting access to modern energy forms in developing countries to replace traditional fuels is high on the political agenda. This paper describes the development and application of a global model for rural electrification. The model is used to assess future trends in electrification, and the

  17. Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Jacinto

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2 adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1 characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2 identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3 identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4 production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes. The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16% in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%. All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

  18. Recent developments in computer modeling add ecological realism to landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background / Question / Methods A factor limiting the rate of progress in landscape genetics has been the shortage of spatial models capable of linking life history attributes such as dispersal behavior to complex dynamic landscape features. The recent development of new models...

  19. LORICA - A new model for linking landscape and soil profile evolution: Development and sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Vanwalleghem, T.

    2016-01-01

    Soils and landscapes evolve in tandem. Landscape position is a strong determinant of vertical soil development, which has often been formalized in the catena concept. At the same time, soil properties are strong determinants of geomorphic processes such as overland erosion, landsliding and creep. We

  20. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

  1. Development of scenarios of nanotechnologies: pro et contra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yaskevich, Ya.S.

    2014-01-01

    Rational forms of the relation to nanotechnology allow to include them in an ethic and humanitarian discourse with installation on development of the relevant codes, recommendations, expert conclusions. (authors)

  2. Electric power for a sustainable development. The italian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barabaschi, S.

    1994-01-01

    After a global energy review in the world, this paper presents the italian national energy plan developed during 1990 and 1991. The most significant aspects were focused on decreasing dependence on imported energy and reducing environmental impacts. In conclusion, the author proposes some recommendations, such as a widest international cooperation in research and development in particular for the field of nuclear energy. (TEC). 7 refs., 6 figs

  3. Opportunities and challenges for mainstreaming ecosystem services in development planning: perspectives from a landscape level

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sitas, Nadia E

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite much progress in ecosystem services research, a gap still appears to exist between this research and the implementation of landscape management and development activities on the ground, especially within a developing country context...

  4. Participatory scenario development to address potential impacts of land use change : An example from the Italian alps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc

    2015-01-01

    Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario

  5. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, Valesca; Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; van Harten, Willem H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and

  6. Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

    2018-02-01

    The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Developing human health exposure scenarios for petroleum substances under REACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, M.; De Wilde, P.; Maksimainen, K.; Margary, A.; Money, C.; Pizzella, G.; Svanehav, T.; Tsang, W.; Urbanus, J.; Rohde, A.

    2012-12-15

    This report describes the approaches that were adopted by CONCAWE to prepare the human exposure estimates in the chemical safety assessments of the REACH registration dossiers for petroleum substances based on all applicable regulatory guidance. Separate exposure estimates were developed for workers and for consumers and included inhalation and dermal routes. The complex nature of petroleum substances required various scientifically justified refinements of the regulatory guidance.

  8. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, F. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miles, J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Zammit, D. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Loomis, D. [Great Lakes Wind Network, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  9. Greenhouse Gas reduction for scenarios of power sources development of the Republic of Moldova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comendant I.

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available For the new power market conditions, Moldova power sources development options up to 2033 are evaluated, and for the six scenarios selected the greenhouse gas reduction impact is determined.

  10. The role of the state in sport for development: A South African scenario

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The role of the state in sport for development: A South African scenario. ... African Journal for Physical Activity and Health Sciences ... rendered the triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data in terms of 470 interviews; 479 case studies; ...

  11. District-Scale Green Infrastructure Scenarios for the Zidell Development Site, City of Portland

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report outlines technical assistance to develop green infrastructure scenarios for the Zidell Yards site consistent with the constraints of a recently remediated brownfield that can be implemented within a 15-20 year time horizon.

  12. Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

    OpenAIRE

    Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

    2013-01-01

    The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional a...

  13. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

    1998-01-01

    Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

  14. Development of a catchment/landscape erosion prediction model (MINErosion 4) for post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalifa, Ashraf; Yu, Bofu; Ghadiri, Hossain; Carroll, Chris; So, Hwat-Bing

    2010-05-01

    Open-cut coal mining in Central Queensland involves the breaking up of overburden that overlies the coal seams using explosives, followed by removal with draglines which results in the formation of extensive overburden spoil-piles with steep slopes at the angle of repose (approximately 75 % or 37o). These spoil-piles are found in long multiple rows, with heights of up to 60 or 70 m above the original landscapes. They are generally highly saline and dispersive and hence highly erosive. Legislation requires that these spoil-piles be rehabilitated into a stable self sustaining ecosystem with no off-site pollution. The first stage in the rehabilitation of these landscapes is the lowering of slopes to create a landscape that is stable against geotechnical failure and erosion. This is followed by revegetation generally with grasses as pioneer vegetation to further reduce erosion and a mixture of native shrubs and trees. Minimizing erosion and excessive on-site discharges of sediment into the working areas may result in the temporary cessation of mining operation with significant financial consequences, while off site discharges may breach the mining lease conditions. The average cost of rehabilitation is approximately 22,000 per ha. With more than 50,000 ha of such spoil-piles in Queensland at present, the total cost of rehabilitation facing the industry is very high. Most of this comprised the cost of reshaping the landscape, largely associated with the amount of material movement necessary to achieve the desired landscape. Since soil and spoil-piles vary greatly in their erodibilities, a hillslope erosion model MINErosion 3 (this conference) was developed to determine a cost effective combination of slope length, slope gradient and vegetation that will result in acceptable rates of erosion. This model was useful to determine the design parameters for the construction of a suitable post-mining landscape that meets the required erosion criteria. However, the mining

  15. Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

    2007-12-01

    There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

  16. EXTINCTION DEBT OF PROTECTED AREAS IN DEVELOPING LANDSCAPES

    Science.gov (United States)

    To conserve biological diversity, protected-area networks must be based not only upon current species distributions but also the landscape's long-term capacity to support populations. We used spatially-explicit population models requiring detailed habitat and demographic data to ...

  17. Brazilian nuclear renaissance in a sustainable development scenario - 097

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, M.S.; Mattos, J.R.L.

    2010-01-01

    Brazil generated 326 TWh of hydroelectric power in 2005, accounting for ∼81% of the electricity production for that year. The 2005 to 2030 projections for the Brazilian development indicate growths from 2,020 kWh to 4,380 kWh in the per capita electricity consumption and from US$4,300 to US$8,950 in the per capita GDP (in market exchange rate and 2005 US$). The consumption of electricity is to grow from 375 TWh in 2005 to 1,030 TWh in 2030. In simple view and without considerations of aspects related with energy efficiency, this growth means 1.8 times the generation capacity of the 20. century should be built along of 25 years of the 21. century. The Brazilian electricity generation will demand all primary sources to meet the foreseen growth of the electricity consumption. As economical, safe and clean primary energy source for electricity generation, the nuclear energy is one option capable of large-scale and short-term deployment in the Brazilian growth of the electricity consumption. The contribution of nuclear generation in the electricity consumption should evolve from the current 2.6% for amounts over 5% in 2030. The perspective of the Brazilian nuclear sector is evolving to be resumed and present an opportunity for pooling and rationalizing the available skills - technical, cultural and human. The role of business opportunities and the future demands in the value chain of nuclear activities are summarized in this document. Institutions of R and D and Brazilian universities play an important role for the formation of new demanded knowledge and human resources. (authors)

  18. Development of a landscape integrity model framework to support regional conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walston, Leroy J; Hartmann, Heidi M

    2018-01-01

    Land managers increasingly rely upon landscape assessments to understand the status of natural resources and identify conservation priorities. Many of these landscape planning efforts rely on geospatial models that characterize the ecological integrity of the landscape. These general models utilize measures of habitat disturbance and human activity to map indices of ecological integrity. We built upon these modeling frameworks by developing a Landscape Integrity Index (LII) model using geospatial datasets of the human footprint, as well as incorporation of other indicators of ecological integrity such as biodiversity and vegetation departure. Our LII model serves as a general indicator of ecological integrity in a regional context of human activity, biodiversity, and change in habitat composition. We also discuss the application of the LII framework in two related coarse-filter landscape conservation approaches to expand the size and connectedness of protected areas as regional mitigation for anticipated land-use changes.

  19. Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base, scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. A variant scenario defined by a single initiating FEP is characterised by a sequence of events. This is represented as a 'timeline' which forms the basis for modelling that scenario. To generate a variant scenario defined by two initiating FEPs, a methodology is presented for combining the timelines for the two underlying 'single-FEP' variants. The resulting series of event sequences can be generated automatically. These sequences are then reviewed, in order to reduce the number of timelines requiring detailed consideration. This is achieved in two ways: by aggregating sequences which have similar consequence in terms of safety performance; and by combining successive intervals along a timeline where appropriate. In the context of a performance assessment, the aim is to determine the conditional risk and appropriate weight for each

  20. The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Anderson, Kevin L.; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

    2008-01-01

    The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target

  1. Feature, event, and process screening and scenario development for the yucca mountain total system performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swift, P.; Barr, G.; Barnard, R.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Freeze, G.; Burck, P.

    2001-01-01

    Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of postclosure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). To ensure clear documentation of the treatment of potentially relevant future states of the system in the Yucca Mountain license application (LA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) has chosen to adopt a scenario development process based on the methodology developed by Cranwell et al. (1990) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Although the process, described below, has been modified somewhat as a result of experience gained in the last decade, the underlying methodology is consistent with that outlined by the DOE in the 1988 Site Characterization Plan for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) (U.S. DOE, 1988). The approach is fundamentally the same as that used in many performance assessments, including the most recent analysis of the Yucca Mountain repository by the NRC (Wescott et al., 1995). The approach has also been used by the DOE for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) (U.S. DOE, 1996), by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), and by other radioactive waste programs internationally. Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited. (authors)

  2. Overdeepening development in a glacial landscape evolution model with quarrying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ugelvig, Sofie Vej; Egholm, D.L.; Iverson, Neal R.

    In glacial landscape evolution models, subglacial erosion rates are often related to basal sliding or ice discharge by a power-law. This relation can be justified when considering bed abrasion, where rock debris transported in the basal ice drives erosion. However, the relation is not well...... supported when considering models for quarrying of rock blocks from the bed. Field observations indicate that the principal mechanism of glacial erosion is quarrying, which emphasize the importance of a better way of implementing erosion by quarrying in glacial landscape evolution models. Iverson (2012...... around the obstacles. The erosion rate is quantified by considering the likelihood of rock fracturing on topographic bumps. The model includes a statistical treatment of the bedrock weakness, which is neglected in previous quarrying models. Sliding rate, effective pressure, and average bedslope...

  3. The importance of scenario development in meeting 40 CFR part 191

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    Scenario development and screening is a fundamental part of performance assessment, but its importance in satisfying 40 CFR Part 191 (the standard) is sometimes underestimated. The first step in scenario development in support of performance assessment for the standard's containment requirements is to identify a set of potentially disruptive events and processes. This set must be broad enough to allow the identification, as required by the standard, of those processes and events that might affect the disposal system; data can then be collected on the scenarios identified in this step. The standard also requires that releases be estimated for all significant processes and events; thus the final step in scenario development is systematically screening the scenarios, on the basis of their probabilities and consequences, to select those that are important enough to be modeled in detail. In general, a few hundred scenarios for the release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository can be identified, but only a few of these can or should be modeled in detail

  4. Developing, choosing and using landscape evolution models to inform field-based landscape reconstruction studies : Developing, choosing and using landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.j.a.m.; Armitage, J.; Attal, M.; Van Gorp, W.; Coulthard, T.j.; Schoorl, J.m.

    2017-01-01

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) are an increasingly popular resource for geomorphologists as they can operate as virtual laboratories where the implications of hypotheses about processes over human to geological timescales can be visualized at spatial scales from catchments to mountain ranges.

  5. Globalisation, sustainable development and competencies of landscape change in a European perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Jesper

    2005-01-01

    During the last 10 years the collective goals connected with the agenda of sustainable development has been challenged by the globalisation agenda furthering a global liberalised market with the individual producer and consumer in focus. Only in the local planning and management of the concrete...... landscape the two agendas seems to meet. In a European perspective the European landscape convention has been promoted as a common frame for the promotion of landscape aspect of the sustainability agenda. The paper analyses the EU proposal for a European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) from...... on the ability and strength of local authorities to unite for such goals, and that detailed analyses of the power balance between different geographical competences in the rural community is necessary to evaluate the possibilities for a sustainable landscape development in rural areas under the conditions...

  6. Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva; Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten; Sohlenius, Gustav; Loefgren, Anders

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement

  7. Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: tobias.lindborg@skb.se; Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Marine Sciences Centre, Umeaa (Sweden); Stroemgren, Maarten [Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden); Sohlenius, Gustav [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)] Loefgren, Anders [EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement.

  8. Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

    2008-11-01

    This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

  9. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  10. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

  11. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  12. Development of a digital mock-up system for selecting a decommissioning scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

    2006-01-01

    The evaluation of decommissioning scenarios is critical to the successful development and execution of a decommissioning project. In the past, many experts have used a physical mock-up system to find the exact work processes and the working positions. Nowadays, these jobs are being done by a Digital Mock-Up (DMU) system. The DMU, which is a technology to realize an effective work process by using virtual environments through representing the physical and logical schema and the behavior of a real decommissioning work, can save on the cost and time, reduce the risk of making later changes, and develop various decommissioning scenarios. In this research, a decommissioning DMU system was developed for simulating the relevant dismantling processes. Decommissioning data-computing modules which can calculate a dismantling schedule, quantify a radioactive waste, visualize a radioactive inventory, estimate a decommissioning cost, and estimate a worker's exposure were also developed to qualitatively assess the decommissioning information. And an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model was developed to evaluate the decommissioning scenarios which reflected the quantitative and qualitative considerations. To establish the proper scenario for the thermal column in KRR-1, the developed decommissioning DMU system was applied to evaluate the two candidate scenarios of it

  13. Landscape Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Brandt, Jesper; Svenningsen, Stig Roar

    2017-01-01

    Landscape ecology is an interdisciplinary field of research and practice that deals with the mutual association between the spatial configuration and ecological functioning of landscapes, exploring and describing processes involved in the differentiation of spaces within landscapes......, and the ecological significance of the patterns which are generated by such processes. In landscape ecology, perspectives drawn from existing academic disciplines are integrated based on a common, spatially explicit mode of analysis developed from classical holistic geography, emphasizing spatial and landscape...... pattern analysis and ecological interaction of land units. The landscape is seen as a holon: an assemblage of interrelated phenomena, both cultural and biophysical, that together form a complex whole. Enduring challenges to landscape ecology include the need to develop a systematic approach able...

  14. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  15. Assessing the Impact of Landscape Development on Ecosystem Services Value in Tropical Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foo, Y. S.; Hashim, M.

    2014-02-01

    As development increases with demand, more forest lands are replaced with cropland, commercial plantation, and infrastructures for being able to accommodate the excessive growth in world's population. Environments were destroyed without considering their values in sustaining life on Earth.This phenomenon is still an ongoing scenario in most of the developing countries in the tropical region including Malaysia. Such unrestricted conversion may cause food or water crisis along with irreparable consequences to local and regional climate as the natural ecosystem is not only the main resources generator but also the climate stabilizer. Contrary to this, a study was conducted in Pahang Watershed, the largest watershed in Peninsular Malaysia with forest as the dominant land cover, to investigate the effect of landscape development on the ecosystem in terms of the erosion and ecosystem service value. Results of soil loss based on USLE indicated a direct relationship between development and total soil loss where total annual soil loss in year 2005 and 2010 showed a significant increase compare to year 2000. Meanwhile, developed and agricultural lands were discovered to be the main contributor whereas forest land produce the least soil loss (oil palm had become the main commercial plantation in current years, the commercial profit brought by oil palm still insufficient to cover losses referring to overall estimated ESVG due to the forest clearance and soil degradation. In addition, for a destroyed ecosystem to be equilibrium again requires years. Therefore, ESVG of the tropical forest are expected to increase continuously in future which mean that the roles of the forest in conserving the environment stabilization and sustainability of life are getting more critical.

  16. Assessing the Impact of Landscape Development on Ecosystem Services Value in Tropical Watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foo, Y S; Hashim, M

    2014-01-01

    As development increases with demand, more forest lands are replaced with cropland, commercial plantation, and infrastructures for being able to accommodate the excessive growth in world's population. Environments were destroyed without considering their values in sustaining life on Earth.This phenomenon is still an ongoing scenario in most of the developing countries in the tropical region including Malaysia. Such unrestricted conversion may cause food or water crisis along with irreparable consequences to local and regional climate as the natural ecosystem is not only the main resources generator but also the climate stabilizer. Contrary to this, a study was conducted in Pahang Watershed, the largest watershed in Peninsular Malaysia with forest as the dominant land cover, to investigate the effect of landscape development on the ecosystem in terms of the erosion and ecosystem service value. Results of soil loss based on USLE indicated a direct relationship between development and total soil loss where total annual soil loss in year 2005 and 2010 showed a significant increase compare to year 2000. Meanwhile, developed and agricultural lands were discovered to be the main contributor whereas forest land produce the least soil loss (<10ton/ ha/yr). Apart from this, this study also reports a degrading trend in the overall ecological service value and goods (ESVG). Although oil palm had become the main commercial plantation in current years, the commercial profit brought by oil palm still insufficient to cover losses referring to overall estimated ESVG due to the forest clearance and soil degradation. In addition, for a destroyed ecosystem to be equilibrium again requires years. Therefore, ESVG of the tropical forest are expected to increase continuously in future which mean that the roles of the forest in conserving the environment stabilization and sustainability of life are getting more critical

  17. Forest landscape analysis and design: a process for developing and implementing land management objectives for landscape patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nancy Diaz; Dean. Apostol

    1992-01-01

    This publication presents a Landscape Design and Analysis Process, along with some simple methods and tools for describing landscapes and their function. The information is qualitative in nature and highlights basic concepts, but does not address landscape ecology in great depth. Readers are encouraged to consult the list of selected references in Chapter 2 if they...

  18. Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural landscapes: quantification tools, policy development, and opportunities for improved management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonitto, C.; Gurwick, N. P.

    2012-12-01

    Policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) have promoted the development of agricultural management protocols to increase SOC storage and reduce GHG emissions. We review approaches for quantifying N2O flux from agricultural landscapes. We summarize the temporal and spatial extent of observations across representative soil classes, climate zones, cropping systems, and management scenarios. We review applications of simulation and empirical modeling approaches and compare validation outcomes across modeling tools. Subsequently, we review current model application in agricultural management protocols. In particular, we compare approaches adapted for compliance with the California Global Warming Solutions Act, the Alberta Climate Change and Emissions Management Act, and by the American Carbon Registry. In the absence of regional data to drive model development, policies that require GHG quantification often use simple empirical models based on highly aggregated data of N2O flux as a function of applied N - Tier 1 models according to IPCC categorization. As participants in development of protocols that could be used in carbon offset markets, we observed that stakeholders outside of the biogeochemistry community favored outcomes from simulation modeling (Tier 3) rather than empirical modeling (Tier 2). In contrast, scientific advisors were more accepting of outcomes based on statistical approaches that rely on local observations, and their views sometimes swayed policy practitioners over the course of policy development. Both Tier 2 and Tier 3 approaches have been implemented in current policy development, and it is important that the strengths and limitations of both approaches, in the face of available data, be well-understood by those drafting and adopting policies and protocols. The reliability of all models is contingent on sufficient observations for model development and validation. Simulation models applied without site-calibration generally

  19. Electric Vehicles Scenarios and a Roadmap for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal

    This report is an attempt to look at the present EV landscape, recent developments in EV markets and the emergent EV technology research. The report analyses future scenarios of passenger transport in India with a specific focus on the role of EVs. The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035 and are ana...

  20. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-01-01

    Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  1. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-07-01

    Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  2. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  3. Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

    2013-04-01

    Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

  4. Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

    2014-03-15

    In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

    2018-05-08

    Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

  6. Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Kling

    2014-07-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

  7. Stratigraphic landscape analysis, thermochronology and the episodic development of elevated, passive continental margins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Green, Paul F.

    2013-12-01

    that peneplains grade towards base level, and that in the absence of other options (e.g. widespread resistant lithologies, the most likely base level is sea level. This is particularly so at continental margins due to their proximity to the adjacent ocean. Studies in which EPCMs are interpreted as related to rifting or break-up commonly favour histories involving continuous denudation of margins following rifting, and interpretation of thermochronology data in terms of monotonic cooling histories. However, in several regions, including southern Africa, south-east Australia and eastern Brazil, geological constraints demonstrate that such scenarios are inappropriate, and an episodic development involving post-breakup subsidence and burial followed later by uplift and denudation is more realistic. Such development is also indicated by the presence in sedimentary basins adjacent to many EPCMs of major erosional unconformities within the post-breakup sedimentary section which correlate with onshore denudation episodes. The nature of the processes responsible is not yet understood, but it seems likely that plate-scale forces are required in order to explain the regional extent of the effects involved. New geodynamic models are required to explain the episodic development of EPCMs, accommodating post-breakup subsidence and burial as well as subsequent uplift and denudation, long after break-up which created the characteristic, modern-day EPCM landscapes.

  8. Examining the Role of Cultural Landscape in Regional Development: Defining Criteria and Looking at Ephesus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gökçe Şimşek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The link between regional development and cultural heritage has been at the center of theoretical discussions and practices in the field of preservation. Especially, varieties of practices and regional plans have been developed in different parts of the World such as Europe, Russia and South Africa in order to ensure regional development through cultural heritage. In this paper, it is accepted that a cultural landscape, as a sub-region of a particular region, is a relevant and meaningful unit that can contribute to the qualities of the region in terms of socio-cultural and economic aspects. In this context, the main goal of this paper is to develop a set of criteria that will act as a tool for identifying to which aspects of a cultural landscape has the potential to contribute regional development and to evaluate possible contributions of Ephesus and its cultural landscape to regional development. These criteria can be classified according to a framework implying a three-fold classification; improvements in the physical quality of the cultural landscape, economic dimension and socio-cultural dimension. As a result, this case indicates that cultural landscape has great potential to contribute to the social and economic development of a region. There is a great need to support community through tools such as awareness raising programmes, regional heritage planning, regional heritage institutions acting as regional agencies.

  9. Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

    2012-11-15

    With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The development of English primary care group governance. A scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheaff, R

    1999-01-01

    At present there is a policy vacuum about what English Primary Care Groups' (PCGs) governance will be when they develop into Primary Care Trusts (PCTs). Draft legislation leaves many options open, so PCT governance is likely to 'emerge' as PCTs are created. It also remains uncertain how general practitioners (GPs) will react to the formation of PCTs and how the UK government will then respond in turn. A scenario analysis suggests three possible lines of development. The base (likeliest) scenario predicts a mainly networked form of PCT governance. An alternative scenario is of PCT governance resembling the former National Health Service internal market. A third scenario predicts 'franchise model' PCTs employing some GPs and subcontracting others. To different degrees all three scenarios predict that PCTs will retain elements of networked governance. If it fails to make GPs as accountable to NHS management as the UK government wishes, networked governance may prove only a transitional stage before English PCTs adopt either quasi-market or hierarchical governance.

  11. Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

    2018-03-15

    Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

  12. Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

    2017-11-01

    Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

  13. National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-04-15

    This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

  14. Developing Learning Scenarios for Educational Web Radio: a Learning Design Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantafyllou, Evangelia; Liokou, Effrosyni; Economou, Anastasia

    2018-01-01

    schools. In this paper, we present a survey study that aimed to evaluate a Visual Learning Design (VLD) approach for developing educational scenari-os in web radio. The study results indicated that the VLD approach helped teachers to think about the educational aspects of the web radio production...

  15. Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nadolski, Rob; Slootmaker, Aad; Hummel, Hans

    2009-01-01

    Nadolski, R. J., Slootmaker, A., & Hummel, H. G. K. (2009). Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation given at Online Educa. December, 3-4, 2009, Berlin, Germany. [For Powerpoint-version of this presentation. Please

  16. Scenarios for the development of the electricity economy in Continental Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutschi, Christoph; Stigler, Heinz; Jagl, Alexander; Nischler, Gernot; Huber, Christoph; Bachhiesl, Udo

    2010-09-15

    ATLANTIS is a multi purpose scenario model for the investigation of effects in the electricity system of continental Europe. The model consists of a physical part for the simulation of power generation and load flow as well as an economic part for the investigation of power markets and the business development of generation and supply companies.

  17. Future waste treatment and energy production – an example of development of joint scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2012-01-01

    Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. The article gives practical examples of how this has been done in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are m...

  18. Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.; Kok, K.

    2015-01-01

    Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted

  19. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

  20. Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

    1994-01-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

  1. Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

    2007-01-01

    Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

  2. Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volkery, Axel; Ribeiro, Teresa; Henrichs, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    different perspectives. However, this task is all but easy as it requires a careful balancing of approaches and an acceptance of different levels of knowledge and trust in different methods across disciplinary boundaries. In spite of a growing body of literature we are still in the early stages of learning......-term alternative land use scenarios in cooperation with experts and modellers. The scenarios have been used in a formal outreach process with key clients and stakeholders at the European and Member State level afterwards. The aim of this paper is to document the methods used, analyse their strengths and weaknesses...... effectively trigger strategic conversations among policy-makers and key stakeholders about potential future developments and related response strategies. A weak integration with quantitative results can undermine this outcome, which is one of the ultimate objectives of any scenario exercise....

  3. Future scenarios for the development of nuclear power. How will nuclear power develop over the next twenty to forty years?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pickett, Susan E.

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear power technology has developed significantly over the past 60 years to the point that today it supplies the world with 15% of its electricity; and there are plans for continued development. However, the continued growth of nuclear power is not without challenges. The nuclear industry must remain competitive in the face of challenges ranging from environmental considerations and proliferation concerns to ensuring safe and often transparent operations. Understanding these and other issues, as well as their underlying causes, can help the industry leaders create more robust strategies and effectively implement nuclear fuel cycle decisions. Robust strategies are ones that can be effective even when circumstances change, due to events such as opposition, new scientific information, changes in resource availability, or introduction of competing technologies. Scenario planning is tool which can help planners and decision makers create a strategic conversation about the future and how to manage and plan in a time of accelerated change and complexity. In this paper, scenario planning is introduced and the development of nuclear power is examined against the back drop of four future scenarios, specifically looking at how variations in environmental quality, resource availability, security and proliferation, and safety may affect the development of nuclear power. The scenarios discussed provide a starting point to improve the understanding of issues and opportunities facing the global nuclear power industry and ultimately, to improve strategies for technology development. Such scenarios may be employed as a basis for collaboration and communication amongst the stakeholders involved in the development of nuclear technology. (author)

  4. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

  5. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  6. Design and development of driving simulator scenarios for road validation studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dols Ruiz, J.F.

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the number of road-based studies using driving simulators is growing significantly. This allows evaluating controlled situations that otherwise would require disproportionate observations in time and/or cost. The Institute of Design and Manufacturing (IDF) of the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) has developed, in collaboration with the Engineering Research Group Highway (GIIC) of the UPV, a low cost simulator that allows rapid implementation and effectively a new methodology for validation studies of different roads through the implementation in the simulator scenarios of existing roads. This methodology allows the development of new scenarios based on the analysis of a layers-file system. Each layer includes different information from the road, such as mapping, geometry, signaling, aerial photos, etc. The creation of the simulated scenario is very fast based on the geometric design software, making it easier to consulting firms using the system that can evaluate and audit a particular route, obtaining reliable conclusions at minimal cost, even if the road is not actually built. This paper describes the basic structure of the layers generated for developing scenarios and guidelines for the implementation thereof. Finally the application of this methodology to a case of success will be described. (Author)

  7. Strategic planning for sustainable spatial, landscape and tourism development in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maksin Marija

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an overview of the expected role of spatial and environmental planning in coordination and integration with strategic planning for sustainable spatial/territorial, landscape and tourism development. The application of an integrated approach to sustainable territorial development planning and management in the European Union is also analyzed in the context of problems associated with and possibilities to enhance the European Landscape Convention and Agenda for a sustainable and competitive European tourism implementation. We have analyzed the contributions of reforms that have so far been implemented in current legislation and of planning bases to the establishment of coordinated sustainable territorial development planning and management in Serbia and to the procurement of support for the integration of sustainable tourism development and landscape planning and management into the process of spatial, environmental and sectoral planning. The approach to and problems of landscape protection and sustainable tourism development occurring in the practice in spatial planning are analyzed through examples of a new generation of spatial plans - the Spatial Plan of the Republic of Serbia, and a spatial plan of the special-purpose area for the Nature Park and Tourism Region of Stara Planina Mountain. Through the example of Mt Stara Planina, the role of strategic environmental assessment in coordination with spatial and sectoral planning is analyzed, as well as potential contribution to landscape integration and sustainable tourism development in the process of planning. The possibilities for better coordination of Serbian strategic planning in achieving the sustainable spatial and tourism development, and possibilities to integrate landscapes into the planning process are indicated.

  8. Broad-scale assessments of ecological landscapes: developing methods and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Natasha B.; Wood, David J. A.; Bowen, Zachary H.; Haby, Travis S.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is developing a Landscape Approach for managing multiple uses of public lands by incorporating multiscale information to quantify the effects of natural and human influences on natural resource conditions and trends. A primary goal of the approach is to identify opportunities for resource conservation, restoration, and development. The BLM Landscape Approach is developing assessment methods that promote consistency in management decisions, identify ecological characteristics that promote ecosystem resilience under rapidly changing environmental conditions, and foster collaboration among land management agencies. The BLM Landscape Approach is closely aligned with the DOI’s “A Strategy for Improving the Mitigation Policies and Practices of The Department of the Interior.”

  9. Electricity and heat system development scenarios integrated in the energy system sustainable development in Romania in the period 2005 - 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marin, Otilia; Leca, Aureliu

    2004-01-01

    After 50 years of centralized economy, since 1989, Romania faces many challenges related to the internal conditions and to the new trends in energy markets over the world as: the existing low efficiency and availability, fast structural changes; the decentralization and privatization of the energy sector with new structures and entities; integration in EU and NATO structures. At present, with transition from the national vertical integrated monopolies to an open market, the determination of the global optimum development scenario of the power and heat sector becomes more important in order to find the policy which can lead the own strategies of different companies involved on market to a sustainable development of the society. The paper presents four long term development scenarios of the electricity and heat sector quantified from different points of view: technical, economical, environmental, social criteria, security of supply, risk diminishing etc and it continues by determining the long term global optimum development scenario integrated in the sustainable energy system. (authors)

  10. The potential for integrated landscape management to fulfil Europe's commitments to the Sustainable Development Goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mann, Carsten; Garcia-Martin, Maria; Raymond, Christopher M.; Shaw, Brian J.; Plieninger, Tobias

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this perspective essay is to discuss how integrated landscape management (ILM) can contribute to the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda in Europe. Challenges for sustainable development become evident in the emergence of land-use conflicts. Facing multiple,

  11. Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Land Access Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, Aaron L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Katherine R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-04

    Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including access to land. Activities required for accessing land, such as environmental review and private and public leasing can take a considerable amount of time and can delay or prevent project development. This paper discusses the impacts to available geothermal resources and deployment caused by land access challenges, including tribal and cultural resources, environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land ownership, federal and state lease queues, and proximity to military installations. In this analysis, we identified challenges that have the potential to prevent development of identified and undiscovered hydrothermal geothermal resources. We found that an estimated 400 MW of identified geothermal resource potential and 4,000 MW of undiscovered geothermal resource potential were either unallowed for development or contained one or more significant barriers that could prevent development at the site. Potential improvement scenarios that could be employed to overcome these barriers include (1) providing continuous funding to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) for processing geothermal leases and permit applications and (2) the creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures. The model results forecast that continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 80 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 124 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures coupled with continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 97 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 152 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The small impact on potential deployment in these improvement scenarios suggests that these 4,400 MW have other barriers to development in addition to land access. In other words, simply

  12. Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

    2007-02-01

    In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

  13. Methodological progress in the development of scenarios for ENRESA-2000 Performance assessment exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortes Martin, A.

    2000-01-01

    ENRESA is carrying out a new safety assessment exercise for a deep geological spent fuel disposal facility located in granite, known as ENRESA-2000. One of the main objectives of this safety analysis is the integration and implementation of all R and D studies performed to date by ENRESA, as well as the identification of those aspects of the assessment which require further investigation. One of the main activities of this exercise is the selection and development of the scenarios to be quantitatively analysed during the assessment, where a scenario is defined as a sufficient number of FEPs (ie relevant features, events and processes) as well as their influence relationships, which explain the behaviour of the disposal system. As a result of these three methods, a definitive list of FEPs will be obtained for the ENRESA-2000 exercise. Once grouped into scenarios, these FEPs will be used to model and calculate consequences. This process of generation and development of scenarios for the ENRESA-2000 performance assessment exercise is presented in this paper. (Author)

  14. Scenario development and evaluation for the NPP Krsko revised decommissioning program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levanat, I.; Lokner, V.; Subasic, D.

    2004-01-01

    In this first revision, several integrated scenarios of the NPP Krsko dismantling and waste management were developed and analyzed in order to estimate the decommissioning program (DP) costs and to propose an appropriate funding plan. Most dismantling technologies and cost estimates were derived from the original decommissioning plan adopted in 1996. The LILW disposal cost estimates, however, rely on the tunnel type facility design which was developed in Slovenia a few years ago, whereas the SF repository design for this DP was adapted from the Swedish deep disposal concept. The starting assumptions for this DP were that the LILW repository would be licensed by 2013, the NPP would be permanently shut down in 2023, and the SF repository would become available in 2030. The boundary conditions also specified that DP should first re-evaluate the SID strategy from the original plan (Strategy Immediate Dismantling with immediate SF disposal, but also with a long period of on-site decay storage for the activated components, so that it actually terminates only after 96 years), and then modify it to achieve truly prompt decommissioning in which all planned activities should be completed within about 15 years after the NPP shut-down. In addition, the option of SF export to a third country should be introduced in all DP scenarios, as a realistic alternative to SF disposal into the local repository (in Slovenia or in Croatia). And finally, dry storage of SF for some 30 years before disposal or export, in an independent installation on unspecified location, should be evaluated within the DP sensitivity analysis. After a thorough analysis of the original SID strategy, it became clear that substantial modifications would be necessary in order to meet the boundary conditions while complying with the specified design and technologies of the assumed LILW and SF disposal facilities. Therefore, a systematic procedure for development and financial evaluation of feasible scenarios was

  15. Controls on Late Quaternary Landscape development in the Upper Guadalentin Basin, Murcia, SE Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baartman, J. e. M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2009-01-01

    Landscapes in South-eastern Spain have developed in response to tectonics, climatic fluctuations and, more recently, to human action. In the valleys, fluvial colluvial sediments are found in the form of river terraces, pediments and slope deposits. We studied these sediments to evaluate landscape dynamics and the processes of sedimentation and erosion in the semi-arid region of the Guadalentin Basin, Murcia Province, SE Spain. The objective of the study is to deduce controls on Late Quaternary and Holocene landscape development. Fieldwork was carried out on the reach of the Upper Guadalentin, upstream of the city of Lorca, and two of its tributaries (Rio Velez and Rambla de Torrealvilla). River terrace levels were mapped using GPS and presence of gravel layers in outcrops. For the Rambla de Torrealvilla, more detailed sediment descriptions show their build-up. (Author) 18 refs.

  16. New concept of aging care architecture landscape design based on sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ying

    2017-05-01

    As the aging problem becoming serious in China, Aging care is now one of the top issuer in front of all of us. Lots of private and public aging care architecture and facilities have been built. At present, we only pay attention to the architecture design and interior design scientific, ecological and sustainable design on aged care architecture landscape. Based on the social economy, population resources, mutual coordination and development of the environment, taking the elderly as the special group, this paper follows the principles of the sustainable development, conducts the comprehensive design planning of aged care landscape architecture and makes a deeper understanding and exploration through changing the form of architectural space, ecological landscape planting, new materials and technology, ecological energy utilization.

  17. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  18. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. LANDSCAPE PATTERN VERSUS FARMING DEVELOPMENT. THE CASE OF THE POST-MARL HOLLOWS (PMH LANDSCAPE IN POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwona MARKUSZEWSKA

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the presence of unique landscape elements (post-marl hollows in an intensively operated farming region. The selected case study (the environs of Krotoszyn in the Wielkopolska region, Poland represents an example of a human-designed landscape in which post-marl hollows (PMH were created as a consequence of the soil-marling process. PMH are vital ecological habitats which have an influence on the high quality of the rural landscape. Currently, as PMH are undergoing the vanishing process, it seems essential to find a solution to maintain these unique landscape elements. The main aim of this paper is to analyse human-nature relationships during the current changes taking place in the agricultural landscape in order to get the answer to the question: how is this affecting the PMH? The study evaluates farmers’ pro-environmental behaviour and defines their identity with the local landscape that has been beneficial in predicting the forthcoming shaping of the landscape. The data describing the PMH were collected in the years 1998-2016, while conducting cartographic analysis, a literature review and repetitive field research. Additionally, remote sensing and geoportal database were used to analyse the PMH changes. Also, interviews and discussions with farmers and representatives of the local administrative body were conducted. Results indicated that local rural communities are little concerned about the environment, particularly when it pertains to the issue of conservation of the local landscape heritage (i.e. PMH. In addition, the lack of support from the administrative body makes more difficult the opportunity to maintain a unique landscape pattern, as described in this paper.

  20. Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindborg, T; Thorne, M; Andersson, E; Becker, J; Brandefelt, J; Cabianca, T; Gunia, M; Ikonen, A T K; Johansson, E; Kangasniemi, V; Kautsky, U; Kirchner, G; Klos, R; Kowe, R; Kontula, A; Kupiainen, P; Lahdenperä, A-M; Lord, N S; Lunt, D J; Näslund, J-O; Nordén, M; Norris, S; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Proverbio, A; Riekki, K; Rübel, A; Sweeck, L; Walke, R; Xu, S; Smith, G; Pröhl, G

    2018-03-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but

  1. Landscape Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Brandt, Jesper; Svenningsen, Stig Roar

    2017-01-01

    , and the ecological significance of the patterns which are generated by such processes. In landscape ecology, perspectives drawn from existing academic disciplines are integrated based on a common, spatially explicit mode of analysis developed from classical holistic geography, emphasizing spatial and landscape...... to translate positivist readings of the environment and hermeneutical perspectives on socioecological interaction into a common framework or terminology....

  2. Flowscapes : Infrastructure as landscape, landscape as infrastructure. Graduation Lab Landscape Architecture 2012/2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijhuis, S.; Jauslin, D.; De Vries, C.

    2012-01-01

    Flowscapes explores infrastructure as a type of landscape and landscape as a type of infrastructure, and is focused on landscape architectonic design of transportation-, green- and water infrastructures. These landscape infrastructures are considered armatures for urban and rural development. With

  3. Development of exploratory approach for scenario analysis in the performance assessment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Umeki, Hiroyuki; Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Takase, Hiroyasu; Grindrod, Peter

    1998-01-01

    It becomes difficult to apply the ordinary method for scenario analysis as number of the processes and complexity in their interrelations are increased. For this problem, an exploratory approach, that can perform scenario analysis on wider range of problems, was developed. The approach includes ensemble runs of a mass transport model, that was developed as a generic and flexible model and can cover effects of various processes on the mass transport, and analysis of sensitivity structure among the input and output space of the ensemble runs. The technique of clustering and principal component analysis were applied in the approach. As the result of its test application, applicability of the approach was confirmed to identify important processes from number of the processes in the systematic and objective manner. (author)

  4. A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, In Hyo [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Won [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (United States)

    2016-10-15

    Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system.

  5. A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, In Hyo; Son, Han Seong; Kim, Si Won; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system

  6. Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barber, E.J. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1991-12-31

    In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

  7. Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

    2008-01-01

    The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

  8. Agroparks - The European Landscape Convention and a European way to regional sustainable landscape development through land use integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Svennningsen, Stig R.; Brandt, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    areas of Europe, in which environmental management increasingly conforms to the principles of liberal economy. Based on a national study of privately owned largeholder manorial estates in Denmark including a detailed case study conducted in one of the survey areas, we conclude that transition...... to landscape sustainability is held back by two main inhibitors, which currently makes it a necessity for rural agency to act unsustainably: (1) The global liberalized legal system which supports individual private ownership to land and thus restrains large scale decision making at a spatial scale to match...... of production activities. These landscapes integrate nature protection, agriculture, settlement and recreation in complex structures of management. They could serve as an example for future sustainable landscape planning at a larger scale, supported by regional regulation. The European Landscape Convention (ELC...

  9. The challenges associated with developing science-based landscape scale management plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert C. Szaro; Douglas A. Jr. Boyce; Thomas. Puchlerz

    2005-01-01

    Planning activities over large landscapes poses a complex of challenges when trying to balance the implementation of a conservation strategy while still allowing for a variety of consumptive and nonconsumptive uses. We examine a case in southeast Alaska to illustrate the breadth of these challenges and an approach to developing a science-based resource plan. Not only...

  10. Development of methods for the restoration of the American elm in forested landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    James M. Slavicek

    2013-01-01

    A project was initiated in 2003 to establish test sites to develop methods to reintroduce the American elm (Ulmus americana L.) in forested landscapes. American elm tree strains with high levels of tolerance to Dutch elm disease (DED) were established in areas where the trees can naturally regenerate and spread. The process of regeneration will...

  11. Nature protection and socio-economic development in selected protected landscape areas

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kušová, Drahomíra; Těšitel, Jan; Matějka, K.; Bartoš, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 1 (2005), s. 109-123 ISSN 1335-342X R&D Projects: GA MŽP(CZ) SM/610/3/03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : protected landscape areas * nature protection * biosphere reserves * socio-economic development Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2005

  12. Suitable landscape classification systems for quantifying spatiotemporal development of riverine ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, K.R.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.; Breure, A.M.; Lenders, H.J.R.; Leuven, R.S.E.W.

    River systems provide numerous ecosystem services that contribute to human well-being. Biophysical quantification of spatiotemporal development of ecosystem services is useful for environmental impact assessments or scenario analyses of river management and could be done by linking biophysical

  13. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

  14. Development of internal transport barrier scenarios at ITER-relevant high triangularity in JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimini, F.G.; Becoulet, M.; Giovannozzi, E.; Lomas, P.J.; Tudisco, O.; Alper, B.; Crisanti, F.; Baar, M. de; Luna, E. de La; Vries, P. de; Ekedahl, A.; Hawkes, N.; Huysmans, G.; Litaudon, X.; Parail, V.; Saibene, G.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zastrow, K.D.

    2005-01-01

    The development of scenarios characterized by H-mode confinement and internal transport barriers (ITBs) in high triangularity, δ ∼ 0.4-0.5, discharges is of particular interest for ITER advanced tokamak operation. Previous JET experiments have shown that high triangularity favours H-modes which are ELM-free or develop type I edge localized mode (ELM) activity, which inhibits long lasting ITBs. The recent experiments reported here concentrate on integrated optimization of edge and core conditions. The stability of the edge pedestal was controlled using gas injection, deuterium or light impurities, and plasma current ramps. Both methods yield more ITB-friendly edge pedestal conditions, varying from small type I to type III ELMs and, in extreme cases, resulting in L-mode. In parallel, the conditions for triggering and sustaining ITBs encompassing a large proportion of the plasma volume (outer ITBs) were optimized, as opposed to less performing ITBs located closer to the plasma centre (inner ITB). These plasmas have deeply reversed target current profiles with q min ∼ 3 and a narrow inner ITB, located typically at a small normalized radius ρ E , at q 95 = 7.5, H 89 β N ∼ 3.5-4 and ∼60% of the Greenwald density limit. In summary, a high triangularity scenario has been developed, which combines the desirable characteristics of controlled edge, long lasting wide ITBs and high performance at density higher than the low triangularity JET scenarios

  15. SITE-94. Scenario development FEP audit list preparation: methodology and presentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenhouse, M.; Chapman, N.; Sumerling, T.

    1993-04-01

    This report concerns a study which is part of the SKI performance assessment project SITE-94. SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. Other important elements of SITE-94 are the development of a practical and defensible methodology for defining, constructing and analyzing scenarios, the development of approaches for treatment of uncertainties , evaluation of canister integrity, and the development and application of an appropriate quality assurance plan for performance assessments

  16. Development of steady-state scenarios compatible with ITER-like wall conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litaudon, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Arnoux, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Beurskens, M [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)] (and others)

    2007-12-15

    A key issue for steady-state tokamak operation is to determine the edge conditions that are compatible both with good core confinement and with the power handling and plasma exhaust capabilities of the plasma facing components (PFCs) and divertor systems. A quantitative response to this open question will provide a robust scientific basis for reliable extrapolation of present regimes to an ITER compatible steady-state scenario. In this context, the JET programme addressing steady-state operation is focused on the development of non-inductive, high confinement plasmas with the constraints imposed by the PFCs. A new beryllium main chamber wall and tungsten divertor together with an upgrade of the heating/fuelling capability are currently in preparation at JET. Operation at higher power with this ITER-like wall will impose new constraints on non-inductive scenarios. Recent experiments have focused on the preparation for this new phase of JET operation. In this paper, progress in the development of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios at JET is reviewed keeping this long-term objective in mind. The approach has consisted of addressing various critical issues separately during the 2006-2007 campaigns with a view to full scenario integration when the JET upgrades are complete. Regimes with internal transport barriers (ITBs) have been developed at q{sub 95} {approx} 5 and high triangularity, {delta} (relevant to the ITER steady-state demonstration) by applying more than 30 MW of additional heating power reaching {beta}{sub N} {approx} 2 at B{sub o} {approx} 3.1 T. Operating at higher {delta} has allowed the edge pedestal and core densities to be increased pushing the ion temperature closer to that of the electrons. Although not yet fully integrated into a performance enhancing ITB scenario, Neon seeding has been successfully explored to increase the radiated power fraction (up to 60%), providing significant reduction of target tile power fluxes (and hence temperatures) and

  17. Untangling human development and natural gradients: implications of underlying correlation structure for linking landscapes and riverine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasmin Lucero; E. Ashley Steel; Kelly M. Burnett; Kelly. Christiansen

    2011-01-01

    Increasingly, ecologists seek to identify and quantify relationships between landscape gradients and aquatic ecosystems. Considerable statistical challenges emerge in this effort, some of which are attributable to multicollinearity between human development and landscape gradients. In this paper, we measure the covariation between human development—such as agriculture...

  18. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  19. Developing a Robust Strategy Map in Balanced Scorecard Model Using Scenario Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Jafari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The key to successful strategy implementation in an organization is for people in the organization to understand it, which requires the establishment of complicated but vital processes whereby the intangible assets are converted into tangible outputs. In this regard, a strategy map is a useful tool that helps execute this difficult task. However, such maps are typically developed based on ambiguous cause-effect relationships that result from the extrapolation of past data and flawed links with possible futures. However, if the strategy map is a mere reflection of the status quo but not future conditions and does not embrace real-world uncertainties, it will endanger the organization since it posits that the current situation will continue. In order to compensate for this deficiency, the environmental scenarios affecting an organization were identified in the present study. Then the strategy map was developed in the form of a scenario-based balanced scorecard. Besides, the effect of environmental changes on the components of the strategy map was investigated using the strategy maps illustrated over time together with the corresponding cash flow vectors. Subsequently, a method was proposed to calculate the degree of robustness of every component of the strategy map for the contingency of every scenario. Finally, the results were applied to a post office.

  20. Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Dongjin; Choi, Kwangsoon; Yoon, Hyungjoon; Park, Jungsu [KEPCO-E and C, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage.

  1. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  2. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, E.R. de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  3. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de; Andrade, E.R. de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  4. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  5. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, Edson Ramos de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  6. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  7. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  8. Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rika Harini Irawati

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

  9. Development of safety assessment method for human intrusion scenario in Japan. Part 1. Drilling scenario database for safety assessment of geological disposal (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagasawa, Hirokazu; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo; Sasaki, Toshihisa

    2010-11-01

    In deep geological disposal or intermediate depth disposal, human intrusion, i.e. accidental excavation or drilling into the disposal site, may make a direct or an indirect effect on the disposal system. Safety assessment method for the human intrusion scenario, that is, the evaluation code of radiological effect from the human intrusion and the data to examine the reduction of the probability of the human intrusion occurring, is essential for the future safety regulation. Assuming that drilling action into the disposal site leads to the human proximity to the radioactive waste or the damage to the barrier system (drilling scenario), we have collected both the data on borehole drilling implemented in Japan and information on actual situation of drilling activities. Based on the data and information, we provide concrete exposure scenarios associated with borehole drilling in the vicinity of the repository and model for estimating the frequency on borehole reaching the depth of repository. The frequency is characterized with the relation to objective of excavation, geographical features, and region in Japan etc. We have developed an assembly of the information mentioned above as database, including the model parameters used in the code to assess radiation dose for drilling scenario. (author)

  10. Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

  11. Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

  12. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  13. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  14. Development of burning plasma and advanced scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luce, T.C.

    2005-01-01

    Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q ∼ 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque. (author)

  15. Soil development on stable landforms and implications for landscape studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harden, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    Soil development parameters include a wide variety of morphological, chemical, and mineralogical parameters, but some of the best indicators of time and surface stability are derived from field morphology. Over long time-spans, the most common time function for soil development is exponential or logarithmic, in which rates decrease with increasing age. Over shorter time-spans in semi-arid and moister climates, Holocene and Pleistocene soil development functions appear as linear segments, with Holocene rates about 10 to 50 times those of Pleistocene rates. In contrast to significant temporal variation in rates, geographical variation in rates within (a) the southern Great Basin and (b) the east Central Valley of California is on the order of 2 or 3 times. When comparing soil development indices of the semi-arid Great Basin to those of moister central California, Holocene rates are similar, but Pleistocene rates are more than 10 times slower in the Great Basin. In a range of climatic settings, the reasons for declining rates over time are several and are complexly related to erosional history, fluxes in water and dust related to climatic changes, rates of primary mineral dissolution, and intrinsic soil processes. ?? 1990.

  16. Agroforestry for landscape restoration and livelihood development in Central Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    U. Djanibekov; Klara Dzhakypbekova; James Chamberlain; Horst Weyerhaeuser; Robert Zomer; G. Villamor; J. Xu

    2016-01-01

    This paper discusses how the adoption of agroforestry for ecosystem and livelihood improvement in Central Asian countries can be enhanced. First, it describes how previous and current developments lead to changing environmental conditions, and how these changing conditions consequently affected the welfare of people. Environmental issues on a global level, such as...

  17. Uncertainties in Amazon Hydropower Development: Risk Scenarios and Environmental Issues around the Belo Monte Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon region is the final frontier and central focus of Brazilian hydro development, which raises a range of environmental concerns. The largest project in the Amazon is the planned Belo Monte Complex on the Xingu river. If constructed it will be the second biggest hydroelectric plant in Brazil, third largest on earth. In this study, we analyse the private and social costs, and benefits of the Belo Monte project. Furthermore, we present risk scenarios, considering fluctuations in the project’s feasibility that would result from variations in total costs and power. For our analysis, we create three scenarios. In the first scenario Belo Monte appears feasible, with a net present value (NPV in the range of US$670 million and a rate of return in excess of the 12% discount rate used in this analysis. The second scenario, where we varied some of the project costs and assumptions based on other economic estimates, shows the project to be infeasible, with a negative NPV of about US$3 billion and external costs around US$330 million. We also conducted a risk analysis, allowing variation in several of the parameters most important to the project’s feasibility. The simulations brought together the risks of cost overruns, construction delays, lower-than-expected generation and rising social costs. The probability of a positive NPV in these circumstances was calculated to be just 28%, or there is a 72% chance that the costs of the Belo Monte dam will be greater than the benefits. Several WCD recommendations are not considered in the project, especially those related to transparency, social participation in the discussion, economic analysis and risk assessment, and licensing of the project. This study underscores the importance of forming a participatory consensus, based on clear, objective information, on whether or not to build the Belo Monte dam.

  18. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  19. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa M Adams

    Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

  20. Landscape structure and management alter the outcome of a pesticide ERA: evaluating impacts of endocrine disruption using the ALMaSS European Brown Hare model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topping, Christopher John; Dalby, Lars; Skov, Flemming

    2016-01-01

    from data collected primarily for EU agricultural subsidy support and GIS map data. Ten different Danish landscapes were generated and the ERA carried out for each landscape using two different assumed toxicities. The results showed negative impacts in all cases, but the extent and form in terms...... of impacts on abundance or occupancy differed greatly between landscapes. A meta-model was created, predicting impact from landscape and farming characteristics. Scenarios based on all combinations of farming and landscape for five landscapes representing extreme and middle impacts were created. The meta......-models developed from the 10 real landscapes failed to predict impacts for these 25 scenarios. Landscape, farming, and the emergent density of hares all influenced the results of the risk assessment considerably. The study indicates that prediction of a reasonable worst case scenario is difficult from structural...

  1. Resource abundance and distribution drive bee visitation within developing tropical urban landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wojcik, Victoria

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Urban landscapes include a mix of biotic and anthropogenic elements that can interact with and influence species occurrence and behaviour. In order to outline the drivers of bee (Hymenoptera: Apoidea occurrence in tropical urban landscapes, foraging patterns and community characteristics were examined at a common and broadly attractive food resource, Tecoma stans (Bignoniaceae. Bee visitation was monitored at 120 individual resources in three cities from June 2007 to March 2009. Resource characteristics, spatial distribution, and other local and regional landscape variables were assessed and then used to develop descriptive regression models of forager visitation. The results indicated that increased bee abundance and taxon richness consistently correlated with increased floral abundance. Resource distribution was also influential, with more spatially aggregated resources receiving more foragers. Individual bee guilds had differential responses to the variables tested, but the significant impact of increased floral abundance was generally conserved. Smaller bodied bee species responded to floral abundance, resource structure, and proximity to natural habitats, suggesting that size-related dispersal abilities structure occurrence patterns in this guild. Larger bees favoured spatially aggregated resources in addition to increased floral abundance, suggesting an optimization of foraging energetics. The impact of the urban matrix was minimal and was only seen in generalist feeders (African honey bees. The strongly resource-driven foraging dynamics described in this study can be used to inform conservation and management practices in urban landscapes.

  2. Development of Landscape Dose Factors for dose assessments in SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, Rodolfo; Ekstroem, Per-Anders [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden); Kautsky, Ulrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2006-08-15

    In previous safety assessments Ecosystem Dose Factors (EDFs), were derived from estimates of doses to the most exposed group resulting from constant unit radionuclide release rates over 10,000 years to various ecosystem types, e.g. mires, agricultural lands, lakes and marine ecosystems. A number of limitations of the EDF approach have been identified. The objectives of this report is to further develop the EDF approach, in order to resolve the identified limitations, and to use the improved approach for deriving Dose Conversion Factors for use in the SR-Can risk assessments. The Dose Conversion Factors derived in this report are named Landscape Dose Factors (LDFs). It involves modelling the fate of the radionuclides in the whole landscape, which develops from a sea to a inland situation during 20,000 years. Both candidate sites studies in SR-Can, Forsmark and Laxemar, are included in the study. As a basis for the modelling, the period starting at the beginning of the last interglacial (8,000 BC) is used, over which releases from a hypothetical repository were assumed to take place. For the present temperate period, the overall development of the biosphere at each site is outlined in a 1,000 year perspective and beyond, essentially based on the ongoing shoreline displacement and the understanding on the impact this has on the biosphere. The past development, i.e. from deglaciation to the present time, is inferred from geological records and associated reconstructions of the shore-line. For each time step of 1,000 years, the landscape at the site is described as a number of interconnected biosphere objects constituting an integrated landscape model of each site. The water fluxes through the objects were estimated from the average run-off at the site, the areas of the objects and their associated catchment areas. Radionuclides in both dissolved and particulate forms were considered in the transport calculations. The transformation between ecosystems was modelled as

  3. Anticipating forest and range land development in central Oregon (USA) for landscape analysis, with an example application involving mule deer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey D. Kline; Alissa Moses; Theresa Burcsu

    2010-01-01

    Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide...

  4. A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

    2008-01-01

    The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

  5. Development of predictive weather scenarios for early prediction of rice yield in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Y.; Cho, J.; Jung, I.

    2017-12-01

    International grain prices are becoming unstable due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather phenomena caused by climate change. Early prediction of grain yield using weather forecast data is important for stabilization of international grain prices. The APEC Climate Center (APCC) is providing seasonal forecast data based on monthly climate prediction models for global seasonal forecasting services. The 3-month and 6-month seasonal forecast data using the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique are provided in their own website, ADSS (APCC Data Service System, http://adss.apcc21.org/). The spatial resolution of seasonal forecast data for each individual model is 2.5°×2.5°(about 250km) and the time scale is created as monthly. In this study, we developed customized weather forecast scenarios that are combined seasonal forecast data and observational data apply to early rice yield prediction model. Statistical downscale method was applied to produce meteorological input data of crop model because field scale crop model (ORYZA2000) requires daily weather data. In order to determine whether the forecasting data is suitable for the crop model, we produced spatio-temporal downscaled weather scenarios and evaluated the predictability by comparison with observed weather data at 57 ASOS stations in South Korea. The customized weather forecast scenarios can be applied to various application fields not only early rice yield prediction. Acknowledgement This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development (Project No: PJ012855022017)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

  6. Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

    2017-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

  7. Leaf development of cultivated rice and weedy red rice under elevated temperature scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Streck,Nereu A.; Uhlmann,Lilian O.; Gabriel,Luana F.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to simulate leaf development of cultivated rice genotypes and weedy red rice biotypes in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. A leaf appearance (LAR) model adapted for rice was used to simulate the accumulated leaf number, represented by the Haun Stage, from crop emergence to flag leaf appearance (EM-FL). Three cultivated rice genotypes and two weedy red rice biotypes in six emergence dates were used. The LAR model was run for each emergence dat...

  8. Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

    2014-09-01

    Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

  9. Evaluating the enablers in solar power developments in the current scenario using fuzzy DEMATEL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luthra, Sunil; Govindan, Kannan; Kharb, Ravinder K.

    2016-01-01

    Determining solar power initiatives and developments for a country as large as India is difficult due to the involvement of different enablers. The decisions of these enablers will influence the formulation of strategies to encourage solar power development in India. The present research work...... critically analyzes Indian solar power developments to recognize and to evaluate key enablers that will encourage greater usage in Indias current scenario. A literature review that explores the Indian solar power sector is included, with a focus on need potential, and an examination of the key enablers....... This work identifies sixteen solar power enablers based on relevant literature and experts inputs. To evaluate and to categorize the recognized solar power development key enablers, a fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) based methodology is utilized. The fuzzy DEMATEL approach...

  10. Virtual Museums for Landscape Valorization and Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietroni, E.

    2017-08-01

    Research in the domain of landscape virtual reconstructions has been mainly focused on digitization and recording inside GIS systems, or real time visualization, paying a minor attention to the development of a methodological approach for the landscape narration, combing different registers, conceptual, emotional incitements and, thus, able to arouse in the public a feeling of emotional "sensing" and self- identification. The landscape reflects also the human activities in the territory and the communities' cultural patterns, their sense of "belonging". In a virtual museum of landscapes, the multidisciplinary approach, the multiplication of perspectives and voices, storytelling, acquire primary importance. A Virtual Museum of landscapes should integrate both holistic and delimited visions. The holistic vision requires a diachronic approach, including both present and past phases of life. On the other side, delimited, or "monographic", representations are useful to go deeper into specific and exemplar stories, regarding specific groups of people. Beside, the emergence of new social media enhancing cultural interactions among people induce the creation of specific social platforms for Cultural Heritage for the active participation of a large number of stakeholders. Co-creation scenarios and tools can be particularly promising. Aton is an example of front-end VR social platform in the web end, for the efficient streaming of medium/large landscape, their exploration and characterization. The Tiber Valley Virtual Museum is an example of sensorial cultural landscape. Starting from the acquisition of topographical data through integrated technologies, several multi-sensory scenarios have been created, inside which visitors can feel embodied and involved.

  11. The Cultural Landscape & Heritage Paradox; Protection and Development of the Dutch Archeological-Historical Landscape and its European Dimension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valk, van der A.J.J.; Bloemers, J.H.F.; Kars, H.; Wijnen, M.

    2010-01-01

    To what extent can we know past and mainly invisible landscapes, and how we can use this still hidden knowledge for actual sustainable management of landscape’s cultural and historical values. It has also been acknowledged that heritage management is increasingly about ‘the management of future

  12. River Water Pollution Status and Water Policy Scenario in Ethiopia: Raising Awareness for Better Implementation in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awoke, Aymere; Beyene, Abebe; Kloos, Helmut; Goethals, Peter L. M.; Triest, Ludwig

    2016-10-01

    Despite the increasing levels of pollution in many tropical African countries, not much is known about the strength and weaknesses of policy and institutional frameworks to tackle pollution and ecological status of rivers and their impacts on the biota. We investigated the ecological status of four large river basins using physicochemical water quality parameters and bioindicators by collecting samples from forest, agriculture, and urban landscapes of the Nile, Omo-Gibe, Tekeze, and Awash River basins in Ethiopia. We also assessed the water policy scenario to evaluate its appropriateness to prevent and control pollution. To investigate the level of understanding and implementation of regulatory frameworks and policies related to water resources, we reviewed the policy documents and conducted in-depth interviews of the stakeholders. Physicochemical and biological data revealed that there is significant water quality deterioration at the impacted sites (agriculture, coffee processing, and urban landscapes) compared to reference sites (forested landscapes) in all four basins. The analysis of legal, policy, and institutional framework showed a lack of cooperation between stakeholders, lack of knowledge of the policy documents, absence of enforcement strategies, unavailability of appropriate working guidelines, and disconnected institutional setup at the grass root level to implement the set strategies as the major problems. In conclusion, river water pollution is a growing challenge and needs urgent action to implement intersectoral collaboration for water resource management that will eventually lead toward integrated watershed management. Revision of policy and increasing the awareness and participation of implementers are vital to improve ecological quality of rivers.

  13. River Water Pollution Status and Water Policy Scenario in Ethiopia: Raising Awareness for Better Implementation in Developing Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awoke, Aymere; Beyene, Abebe; Kloos, Helmut; Goethals, Peter L M; Triest, Ludwig

    2016-10-01

    Despite the increasing levels of pollution in many tropical African countries, not much is known about the strength and weaknesses of policy and institutional frameworks to tackle pollution and ecological status of rivers and their impacts on the biota. We investigated the ecological status of four large river basins using physicochemical water quality parameters and bioindicators by collecting samples from forest, agriculture, and urban landscapes of the Nile, Omo-Gibe, Tekeze, and Awash River basins in Ethiopia. We also assessed the water policy scenario to evaluate its appropriateness to prevent and control pollution. To investigate the level of understanding and implementation of regulatory frameworks and policies related to water resources, we reviewed the policy documents and conducted in-depth interviews of the stakeholders. Physicochemical and biological data revealed that there is significant water quality deterioration at the impacted sites (agriculture, coffee processing, and urban landscapes) compared to reference sites (forested landscapes) in all four basins. The analysis of legal, policy, and institutional framework showed a lack of cooperation between stakeholders, lack of knowledge of the policy documents, absence of enforcement strategies, unavailability of appropriate working guidelines, and disconnected institutional setup at the grass root level to implement the set strategies as the major problems. In conclusion, river water pollution is a growing challenge and needs urgent action to implement intersectoral collaboration for water resource management that will eventually lead toward integrated watershed management. Revision of policy and increasing the awareness and participation of implementers are vital to improve ecological quality of rivers.

  14. Development of internal transport barrier scenarios at ITER-relevant high triangularity in Jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimini, F.G.; Becoulet, M.; Ekedahl, A.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Litaudon, X. [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d' Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee; Giovannozzi, E.; Tudisco, O.; Crisanti, F. [Association Euratol/ENEA/CNR sulla Fusione, Frascali, Rome (Italy); Lomas, P.J.; Alper, B.; Hawkes, N.; Parail, V.; Zastrow, K.D. [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon (United Kingdom); Baar, M. de; Vries, P. de [Association Euratom-Fom, TEC Cluster, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); La Luna, E. de [Association Euratom-Ciemat, Madrid (Spain); Saibene, G. [EFDA CSU, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    The development of ITB s(Internal Transport Barrier) scenarios in high triangularity discharges is of particular interest for ITER advanced tokamak operation. Previous JET experiments have shown that high triangularity favours ELM (Edge Localized Mode)-Free or type I ELMs, which inhibit long lasting ITBs. The recent experiments reported here concentrate on integrated optimisation of edge and core conditions. Edge pedestal was controlled using gas injection, Deuterium or light impurities, and plasma current ramps. Both methods yield more ITB-friendly edge pedestal conditions, varying from small type I to type III ELMs and, in extreme cases, to L-mode edge. In parallel, the conditions for triggering and sustaining a wide ITB were optimised. This plasmas have deeply reversed target current profiles with g{sub min} 3. A narrow inner ITB, located in the reversed shear region, is routinely observed. Large radius ITBs are only triggered when the input power exceeds 20-22 MW, but they do not usually survive the transition into H-mode. The best results, in terms of sustained high performance, have been obtained with Neon injection: a wide ITB is triggered during the phase with L-mode edge and survives into H-mode for about 2 s at H{sub 89}{beta}{sub N} {approx} 3.5 and {approx} 60% of the Greenwald density limit. In summary, a high triangularity scenario has been developed, which combines the desirable I characteristics of controlled edge, long lasting wide ITBs and high performance at density higher than the low triangularity JET scenarios. (authors)

  15. Upper Middle Pleistocene climate and landscape development of Northern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, B.

    2009-04-01

    and the margin of a 286 m deep channel, subglacially eroded during the Elsterian, have recently been investigated by 9 counter flash or cored drillings (Stephan et al., in press). Studies focussed on the uppermost 50 m, made up of a series of approximately 9 m thick fluviatile sediments ("Leck-Folge") with intercalations of organic sand layers and a gyttja band, up to 1.5 m thick. This sequence is overlain by several metres of mainly decalcified groundmoraine, that, itself, is overlain by glaciofluvial and periglacial sediments. The palynological investigations of the gyttja reveal a floral development of interglacial character ("Leck-Thermomer"). Compared to other Middle Pleistocene warm periods in North Germany, correlations of the Leck-Thermomer with the Holsteinian and with the warm periods of the Reinsdorf and Wacken (Dömnitz) interglacials are precluded or appear rather implausible. The Leck-Thermomer is most likely a correlative of the marine oxigen isotope stage 7 c (MIS 7). Stephan, H.-J., Urban, B., Lüttig, G., Menke, B. und M. Sierralta: Palynologische, petrographische und geochronologische Untersuchungen der Leck-Warmzeit (spätes Mittelpleistozän) und ihrer begleitenden Sedimente.- [Palynological, petrographical, and geochronological investigations of deposits of the "Leck-Thermomer" and accompanying sediments].- Geologisches Jahrbuch, in press. Thieme, H., 1997. Lower Paleolithic hunting spears from Germany. Nature 385, 807-810. Urban, B. 1995. Palynological evidence of younger Middle Pleistocene Interglacials (Holsteinian, Reinsdorf, Schöningen) in the Schöningen open cast lignite mine (eastern Lower Saxony/Germany). Mededelingen Rijks Geologische Dienst 52, 175-186. Urban, B. 2006. Interglacial pollen records from Schöningen, north Germany.- In: THE CLIMATE OF PAST INTERGLACIALS. Sirocko, F., Litt, T., Claussen, M., Sanchez-Goni, M.F. (eds.), Springer Verlag; in press.

  16. Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, E.R. Sr.

    1991-01-01

    Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

  17. Structural change in Europe's gas markets: three scenarios for the development of the European gas market to 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, A.; Bowitz, E.; Roland, K.

    2000-01-01

    Against the background of the European Union's Gas Directive, and the emergence of new players and markets in Europe's gas sector, this paper explores how company actions could shape the future for the gas industry. Starting with an examination of company strategies this paper develops three scenarios for the future: a 'Gradual Transformation' scenario where a single European gas market develops that is essentially oligopolistic in nature; a 'Vertical Integration' scenario, where upstream and downstream gas companies merge to form a vertically integrated gas supplier; and a 'Pull the Plug' scenario, where the current market structure decomposes into a competitive market. These scenarios are examined in terms of their impact on gas prices, demand and the distribution of gas rent along the supply chain. The paper highlights the fact that the EU's gas Directive is not sufficient for the introduction of competition into Europe's gas markets, but that company actions will be the key determinant, and they may favour alternative market structures. (Author)

  18. Sustainable Development, Moral Law and Legality in Defense of Cultural and Landscape Heritage

    OpenAIRE

    Giampaolo Maria Cogo; Giovanni Cogo

    2017-01-01

    Moved by Pope Frances’ urgent call to protect our common home by dealing with the environmental challenge and its human roots to achieve sustainable and integral development, the historical-legislative and institutional recognition act was drawn up on the protection and valorization of cultural-landscape-environmental heritage, matrix of the progress of civilization outlined in the fundamental principles of the Italian Constitution in the “cultural programme” focused on the relationship betwe...

  19. A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambhir, Ajay; Schulz, Niels; Napp, Tamaryn; Tong, Danlu; Munuera, Luis; Faist, Mark; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important. - Highlights: • Combining energy supply and demand models reveals low-carbon technology choices across China's economy. • China could reduce its CO 2 emissions to close to 3 Gt in 2050, costing around 2% of GDP. • Decarbonising the power sector underpins the energy system transformation. • Electrification of industrial processes, building heating and transport is required. • Energy efficiency across the demand side is also important

  20. Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional activity regardless of the performed function and position. The article specifies the following roles in the offered classification: partner, expert, communicator, consultant and curator. It presents results of a sociological study, which demonstrate the degree of co-ordination of opinions of employers and practicing personnel managers with respect to performance of roles in the sphere by their professional activity by the latter. This helps to identify a number of problems, which include the problem of availability of reserves of increase of the level of competence of personnel management specialists. This issue, in its turn, closely deals with main aspects of formation of competitiveness of the said specialists, since the degree of formation of competences is the key condition of formation of competitive advantages.

  1. Investigation of key parameters for the development of reliable ITER baseline operation scenarios using CORSICA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Casper, T. A.; Snipes, J. A.

    2018-05-01

    ITER will demonstrate the feasibility of burning plasma operation by operating DT plasmas in the ELMy H-mode regime with a high ratio of fusion power gain Q ~ 10. 15 MA ITER baseline operation scenario has been studied using CORSICA, focusing on the entry to burn, flat-top burning plasma operation and exit from burn. The burning plasma operation for about 400 s of the current flat-top was achieved in H-mode within the various engineering constraints imposed by the poloidal field coil and power supply systems. The target fusion gain (Q ~ 10) was achievable in the 15 MA ITER baseline operation with a moderate amount of the total auxiliary heating power (~50 MW). It has been observed that the tungsten (W) concentration needs to be maintained low level (n w/n e up to the order of 1.0  ×  10-5) to avoid the radiative collapse and uncontrolled early termination of the discharge. The dynamic evolution of the density can modify the H-mode access unless the applied auxiliary heating power is significantly higher than the H-mode threshold power. Several qualitative sensitivity studies have been performed to provide guidance for further optimizing the plasma operation and performance. Increasing the density profile peaking factor was quite effective in increasing the alpha particle self-heating power and fusion power multiplication factor. Varying the combination of auxiliary heating power has shown that the fusion power multiplication factor can be reduced along with the increase in the total auxiliary heating power. As the 15 MA ITER baseline operation scenario requires full capacity of the coil and power supply systems, the operation window for H-mode access and shape modification was narrow. The updated ITER baseline operation scenarios developed in this work will become a basis for further optimization studies necessary along with the improvement in understanding the burning plasma physics.

  2. Which DEM is best for analyzing fluvial landscape development in mountainous terrains?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulton, Sarah J.; Stokes, Martin

    2018-06-01

    Regional studies of fluvial landforms and long-term (Quaternary) landscape development in remote mountain landscapes routinely use satellite-derived DEM data sets. The SRTM and ASTER DEMs are the most commonly utilised because of their longer availability, free cost, and ease of access. However, rapid technological developments mean that newer and higher resolution DEM data sets such as ALOS World 3D (AW3D) and TanDEM-X are being released to the scientific community. Geomorphologists are thus faced with an increasingly problematic challenge of selecting an appropriate DEM for their landscape analyses. Here, we test the application of four medium resolution DEM products (30 m = SRTM, ASTER, AW3D; 12 m = TanDEM-X) for qualitative and quantitative analysis of a fluvial mountain landscape using the Dades River catchment (High Atlas Mountains, Morocco). This landscape comprises significant DEM remote sensing challenges, notably a high mountain relief, steep slopes, and a deeply incised high sinuosity drainage network with narrow canyon/gorge reaches. Our goal was to see which DEM produced the most representative best fit drainage network and meaningful quantification. To achieve this, we used ArcGIS and Stream Profiler platforms to generate catchment hillshade and slope rasters and to extract drainage network, channel long profile and channel slope, and area data. TanDEM-X produces the clearest landscape representation but with channel routing errors in localised high relief areas. Thirty-metre DEMs are smoother and less detailed, but the AW3D shows the closest fit to the real drainage network configuration. The TanDEM-X elevation values are the closest to field-derived GPS measurements. Long profiles exhibit similar shapes but with minor differences in length, elevation, and the degree of noise/smoothing, with AW3D producing the best representation. Slope-area plots display similarly positioned slope-break knickpoints with modest differences in steepness and concavity

  3. The impact of industrial oil development on a protected area landscape: A case study on human population growth and landscape level change in Murchison Falls Conservation Area, Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowhaniuk, Nicholas; Hartter, Joel; Congalton, Russell G.; Palace, Michael W.; Ryan, Sadie J.

    2016-04-01

    Protected areas in Sub-Saharan Africa are sanctuaries for rich biodiversity and are important economic engines for African nations, but they are becoming increasingly threatened by discoveries of mineral deposits within and nearby their boundaries. In 2006, viable oil reserves were discovered in Murchison Falls Conservation Area (MFCA) in northern Uganda. Exploratory and appraisal activities concluded in 2014, and production is expected to begin in 2016. The oil development is associated with a substantial increase in human population outside MFCA, with people seeking jobs, land, and economic opportunity. Concomitant with this change is increased truck traffic, a sprawling and denser road network, and infrastructure within the park, which could have large impacts on both the flora and fauna. We examined the broader protected area landscape and the potential feedbacks from resource development on the ecosystem and local livelihoods. Our analysis combines a land cover analysis using Object Based Image Analysis of Landsat data (2002 and 2014), migration patterns and population change (1959-2014), and qualitative interview data. Our results suggest that most of the larger-scale impacts on the landscape and people are occurring in the western and northern sections, both inside and outside of the park. Additionally, oil development is not the only factor in the region influencing population growth and landscape change. Post conflict regrowth in the north, sugarcane production in the south, and migration to this region from conflict-ridden neighboring countries are also playing a vital role in human migration shaping the MFCA Landscape. Understanding the social and environmental changes and impacts in the MFCA and its surrounding areas will add to limited literature on the impacts of resource extraction on local, subsistence communities and landscape level change, which will be important as access and pressure for oil and minerals within protected areas continues to rise.

  4. Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

  5. A Knowledge Management Scenario to Support Knowledge Applications Development in Small and Medium Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROSU, S. M.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, in the European countries more than 95% of the companies are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and majority of the European Union employees work in these companies. In order to develop intelligent business to become competitive, the enterprises must increase the quality and technologic level of products and services, to have permanent new product or to make old products bettering and to have a good prices policy. These activities request first a large amount of data, information and knowledge collected from all sources and then request transferring knowledge at each enterprise level. Therefore, this work analyses the state of art of the knowledge and knowledge management (KM and propose KM scenario to support knowledge applications (KApps development in SMEs. In addition, the paper presents how can be knowledge bases built at the enterprise level.

  6. The Development of the Sacred Landscape of Saqqara in the Old Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magli, Giulio

    2015-05-01

    Saqqara is one of the most important Necropolis in Egypt. In the course of the third millennium BC many Pharaohs choose Saqqara for their tombs. As a consequence the landscape constantly grew with the addition of new monuments, from the mastaba tombs of the first dynasty to the last pyramid of the Old Kingdom, that of Pepi II. The monuments were constructed respecting a series of topographical constraints which are not due to the morphology of the area but rather reflect symbolic - dynastic or astronomical - motivations. The analysis of these connections gives a better understanding of the choices made by the kings' architects in order to keep Maat - order - in the development of the site. Further, the way in which the sacred landscape came to be structured at the end of the Old Kingdom allows us to formulate a proposal for the possible location of the unique pyramid of the sixth dynasty which is still to be found: that of Userkare.

  7. Scenario development during commissioning operations on the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglia, D. J.; Boyer, M. D.; Gerhardt, S.; Mueller, D.; Myers, C. E.; Guttenfelder, W.; Menard, J. E.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Scotti, F.; Bedoya, F.; Bell, R. E.; Berkery, J. W.; Diallo, A.; Ferraro, N.; Kaye, S. M.; Jaworski, M. A.; LeBlanc, B. P.; Ono, M.; Park, J.-K.; Podesta, M.; Raman, R.; Soukhanovskii, V.; NSTX-U Research, the; Operations; Engineering Team

    2018-04-01

    The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) will advance the physics basis required for achieving steady-state, high-beta, and high-confinement conditions in a tokamak by accessing high toroidal fields (1 T) and plasma currents (1.0-2.0 MA) in a low aspect ratio geometry (A  =  1.6-1.8) with flexible auxiliary heating systems (12 MW NBI, 6 MW HHFW). This paper describes the progress in the development of L- and H-mode discharge scenarios and the commissioning of operational tools in the first ten weeks of operation that enable the scientific mission of NSTX-U. Vacuum field calculations completed prior to operations supported the rapid development and optimization of inductive breakdown at different values of ohmic solenoid current. The toroidal magnetic field (B T0  =  0.65 T) exceeded the maximum values achieved on NSTX and novel long-pulse L-mode discharges with regular sawtooth activity exceeded the longest pulses produced on NSTX (t pulse  >  1.8 s). The increased flux of the central solenoid facilitated the development of stationary L-mode discharges over a range of density and plasma current (I p). H-mode discharges achieved similar levels of stored energy, confinement (H98y,2  >  1) and stability (β N/β N-nowall  >  1) compared to NSTX discharges for I p  ⩽  1 MA. High-performance H-mode scenarios require an L-H transition early in the I p ramp-up phase in order to obtain low internal inductance (l i) throughout the discharge, which is conducive to maintaining vertical stability at high elongation (κ  >  2.2) and achieving long periods of MHD quiescent operations. The rapid progress in developing L- and H-mode scenarios in support of the scientific program was enabled by advances in real-time plasma control, efficient error field identification and correction, effective conditioning of the graphite wall and excellent diagnostic availability.

  8. Trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and economic development in five tropical forest landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandker, Marieke; Ruiz-Perez, Manuel; Campbell, Bruce Morgan

    2012-01-01

    of conservation or can benefit conservation, but in all cases sustained poverty negatively affects conservation in the long term. Most scenarios with better outcomes for conservation come at a cost for development and the financial benefits of payments for environmental services (PES) are not sufficient...... to compensate for lost opportunities to earn cash. However, implementation of strategies for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in locations with low population densities come close to overcoming opportunity costs. Environmental services and subsistence income enhance...... the attractiveness of conservation scenarios to local people and in situations where these benefits are obvious, PES may provide the extra cash incentive to tip the balance in favor of such a scenario. The paper stresses the importance of external factors (such as industrial investments and the development...

  9. Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Basovníková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.

  10. Applying Landscape Science to Natural Resource Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy M. Robinson

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This is the introduction to the Ecology and Society special feature on "Applying Landscape Science to Natural Resource Management". Primarily drawing upon examples from Australia, the nine papers in the feature illustrate how landscape science seeks to integrate information from diverse sources to generate management solutions for implementation by individual land managers, communities, and governments at different levels. This introduction refers to the genesis of the feature, briefly outlines the nature and content of landscape science, and then summarizes key features of the nine papers. These are organized into two sections: one deals with inputs from human agents in the landscape, and one with the development of models enabling different management scenarios and environmental changes to be envisaged, understood, and applied to policy development.

  11. Cultural landscapes and local development: High fashion or prêt a porter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Sabaté Bel

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper is divided into three parts. The first defends that the antiquity and the appreciation for it, is a modern invention. This recognition carried from a preservation of monumental pieces to a larger vision of heritage, the cultural landscape. Thereafter, we will try to clarify the concept of cultural landscape, and the concept of heritage parks as a vehicle for development. In the second part the focus of this paper will be the relationship of both concepts in the postmodern condition, possible risks of thematization and universal recognition figures, as well as the implications from certain management tools. From the analysis of a hundred projects and proposals spread over several continents is interesting to note some operational lessons. But more than the recognition of singularity of certain areas, the specificity of projects, or the most appropriate mechanisms for management, the conclusion emphasizes that is relevant and urgent to study the challenges posed by this rich conception of territory and landscape planning discipline.

  12. Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A. [Colenco Power Consulting AG, Baden (Switzerland)

    2001-07-01

    This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises.

  13. Climate change and energy scenarios in Asia-Pacific developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqi, T.A.; Foell, W.K.; Hills, P.; Nagao, Taiji

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide increases in energy use are the largest source of rising emissions of CO 2 . In the past, Europe and North America were the regions with the largest emissions. The rapid rate of industrialization, combined with population growth, has led to substantial increases in energy use in the developing countries of Asia and the Pacific. If present trends continue, the region will become the largest emitter of CO 2 from the use of fossil fuels within the next two or three decades. In this paper, we examine some alternate energy scenarios for the individual countries of the region and the potential for reducing CO 2 emissions from energy use to the year 2010. (author)

  14. Scenarios for the development of electromobility in Munich; Szenarien zur Entwicklung der Elektromobilitaet in Muenchen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunnert, Stefan [Hochschule Weihenstephan-Triesdorf (Germany). Studiengang ' ' Management Erneuerbare Energien' '

    2011-07-01

    The change of the individual mobility on environmentally friendly and sustainable approach is not only in Germany an important concern, but also a global challenge. The main reasons for an involvement are dwindling crude oil reserves and the greenhouse effect. Due to the road traffic as one of the largest emitters of CO{sub 2} possibilities are discussed to make mobility more environmentally friendly and energy-politically sustainable. In this context, the electric car is seen as a possible component of the vision for the future of the environment and mobility. The contribution under consideration reports on the possible development of electric vehicles in Munich in 2030 based on three scenarios. The results are based on a fundamental study of the Institute fortiss GmbH (Munich, Federal Republic of Germany) and a recent study by the Research center for Energy Economics (Munich, Federal Republic of Germany) for electric vehicles.

  15. A nonlinear scenario for development of vortex layer instability in gravity field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goncharov, V. P.

    2007-01-01

    A Hamiltonian version of contour dynamics is formulated for models of constant-vorticity plane flows with interfaces. The proposed approach is used as a framework for a nonlinear scenario for instability development. Localized vortex blobs are analyzed as structural elements of a strongly perturbed wall layer of a vorticity-carrying fluid with free boundary in gravity field. Gravity and vorticity effects on the geometry and velocity of vortex structures are examined. It is shown that compactly supported nonlinear solutions (compactons) are candidates for the role of particle-like vortex structures in models of flow breakdown. An analysis of the instability mechanism demonstrates the possibility of a self-similar collapse. It is found that the vortex shape stabilizes at the final stage of the collapse, while the vortex sheet strength on its boundary increases as (t 0 - t) -1 , where t 0 is the collapse time

  16. Development of the New Educational Content "small Uas in Civil Engineering Application Scenarios"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, E.; Vach, K.; Shults, R.

    2017-12-01

    The key point of this paper is presentation of the main idea and some results of the project "Small UAS in civil engineering application scenarios" (SUAS-CAS). This project was proposed by newly established in 2016 ISPRS WG V/7: "Innovative Technologies in Training Civil Engineers and Architects". Here we are presenting our experience in using low-cost UAS in training architects at Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, which was chosen as basic for this project. In the first part of paper, the project outline is presented. Then the first and possible follow project outcomes were described. In some details is described the training module "Small UAS in architecture" which was developed and included as a part of the subject "Architectural photogrammetry".

  17. Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises

  18. Development of damage control training scenarios of naval ships based on simplified vulnerability analysis results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Ki Park

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Given the growing interest in damage control training for the naval ships and their organizations, expectations for a new concept of training program have also increased. The existing training programs and its concept focus on training crew to be more proficient and skilled so that they can respond better to damage situations, i.e., fires and flooding. This paper suggests a development procedure of damage control training scenarios using the survivability analysis results as a new concept of damage control training programs employing advanced systems such as damage control console, automation system, and kill cards. This approach could help the decision maker not only enhance his or her capability but also improve the reacting capability of crew members for complex situations induced by a weapon hit.

  19. Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn R. Francis

    2011-12-01

    We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

  20. Conceptualizing sustainable development. An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vries, Bert J.M.; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2009-01-01

    Sustainability science poses severe challenges to classical disciplinary science. To bring the perspectives of diverse disciplines together in a meaningful way, we describe a novel methodology for sustainability assessment of a particular social-ecological system, or country. Starting point is that a sustainability assessment should investigate the ability to continue and develop a desirable way of living vis-a-vis later generations and life elsewhere on the planet. Evidently, people hold different values and beliefs about the way societies sustain quality of life for their members. The first step, therefore, is to analyze people's value orientations and the way in which they interpret sustainability problems i.e. their beliefs. The next step is to translate the resulting worldviews into model-based narratives, i.e. scenarios. The qualitative and quantitative outcomes are then investigated in terms of associated risks and opportunities and robustness of policy options. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has followed this methodology, using extensive surveys among the Dutch population. In its First Sustainability Outlook (2004), the resulting archetypical worldviews became the basis for four different scenarios for policy analysis, with emphases on the domains of transport, energy and food. The goal of the agency's Sustainability Outlooks is to show that choices are inevitable in policy making for sustainable development, to indicate which positive and negative impacts one can expect of these choices (trade-offs), and to identify options that may be robust under several worldviews. The conceptualization proposed here is both clear and applicable in practical sustainability assessments for policy making. (author)

  1. Inhabiting the sexual landscape: toward an interpretive theory of the development of sexual orientation and identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Liahna E; Silva, Tony J

    2015-01-01

    Building on Paula Rust's (1996) concept of a sexual landscape, we propose an interpretive theory of the development of both sexual orientation and sexual identity. We seek to reconcile human agency with active and shifting influences in social context and to recognize the inherent complexity of environmental factors while acknowledging the role that biological potential plays. We ground our model in the insights of three compatible and related theoretical perspectives: social constructionism, symbolic interactionism, and scripting theory. Within this framework, we explain how sexual orientation and sexual identities develop and potentially change.

  2. Monitoring Forest Change in Landscapes Under-Going Rapid Energy Development: Challenges and New Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul D. Pickell

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The accelerated development of energy resources around the world has substantially increased forest change related to oil and gas activities. In some cases, oil and gas activities are the primary catalyst of land-use change in forested landscapes. We discuss the challenges associated with characterizing ecological change related to energy resource development using North America as an exemplar. We synthesize the major impacts of energy development to forested ecosystems and offer new perspectives on how to detect and monitor anthropogenic disturbance during the Anthropocene. The disturbance of North American forests for energy development has resulted in persistent linear corridors, suppression of historical disturbance regimes, novel ecosystems, and the eradication of ecological memory. Characterizing anthropogenic disturbances using conventional patch-based disturbance measures will tend to underestimate the ecological impacts of energy development. Suitable indicators of anthropogenic impacts in forests should be derived from the integration of multi-scalar Earth observations. Relating these indicators to ecosystem condition will be a capstone in the progress toward monitoring forest change in landscapes undergoing rapid energy development.

  3. Innovative method of RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klevas, Valentinas; Biekša, Kestutis; Murauskaitė, Lina

    2014-01-01

    Scarcity or abundance of energy resources usually depends on physical and geographical conditions in the region. However, the energy flow in the region also depends on the efficient use of energy resources, the consumption rate of energy and the possibility to use local renewable and non-renewable energy resources. Production, distribution and the use of energy resources in the region are the challenges for central and local government, business and social service, customers and other stakeholders. Development of regional energy economy should be optimized according to the available energy flow in the region using a network system analysis method, which provides solutions for developing sustainable energy economy models. The network system analysis method enables to optimize the use of local and renewable resources at the regional level and reveals available local energy resources. An efficient use of available regional resources and the use of renewable energy sources (RES) should be the main goals for the development of regional energy system. RES can compete with traditional fossil fuel with the condition that all hidden aspects are revealed. The network system analysis method enables to indicate energy flows in the region as well as indicate pros and cons of using renewable energy technologies. - Highlights: • RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios is done. • Innovative process network system (PNS) analysis method is used. • PNS method is used to optimize the use of local and renewable resources. • Analysis of energy flow in region using PNS method is done

  4. Aquatic environment as an occupational therapeutic scenario for the development of body scheme in Down syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrystiane Maria Veras Pôrto

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess the effect of aquatic environment while an occupational therapeutic scenario in the development of body scheme of a child with Down Syndrome, considering the therapeutic properties of water. Description of the case: An interventionist research, with a qualitative and descriptive approach, conducted in an adapted pool of the Núcleo de Atenção Médica Integrada (NAMI of Fortaleza University (UNIFOR, Ceara, during the period of March to May, 2005. The subject of the study was a female child, aged 10 years old, diagnosed with Down Syndrome. Data collection had as instruments an interview guide for anamnesis, an evaluation form of psychomotor development, besides a field diary to record clinical observations during the sessions. This information was organized and analyzed based on clinical reasoning of occupational therapists and then described as a case study. We observed an evolution in the development of skills related to body scheme, such as the perception of fine parts of her own body, as well as large parts in someone else’s body, the imitation of positions, finishing with more active participation in activities of daily living. Final Considerations: We verified the effectiveness of occupational therapeutic activities conducted in aquatic environment for the development of the body scheme of the child in the study. This may be useful for conducting further research on the subject – whose literature is scarce – and contributing to the crescent update of occupational therapy practices.

  5. Artificial neural network surrogate development of equivalence models for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in scenario studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivtchik Guillaume

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario studies simulate the whole fuel cycle over a period of time, from extraction of natural resources to geological storage. Through the comparison of different reactor fleet evolutions and fuel management options, they constitute a decision-making support. Consequently uncertainty propagation studies, which are necessary to assess the robustness of the studies, are strategic. Among numerous types of physical model in scenario computation that generate uncertainty, the equivalence models, built for calculating fresh fuel enrichment (for instance plutonium content in PWR MOX so as to be representative of nominal fuel behavior, are very important. The equivalence condition is generally formulated in terms of end-of-cycle mean core reactivity. As this results from a physical computation, it is therefore associated with an uncertainty. A state-of-the-art of equivalence models is exposed and discussed. It is shown that the existing equivalent models implemented in scenario codes, such as COSI6, are not suited to uncertainty propagation computation, for the following reasons: (i existing analytical models neglect irradiation, which has a strong impact on the result and its uncertainty; (ii current black-box models are not suited to cross-section perturbations management; and (iii models based on transport and depletion codes are too time-consuming for stochastic uncertainty propagation. A new type of equivalence model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN has been developed, constructed with data calculated with neutron transport and depletion codes. The model inputs are the fresh fuel isotopy, the irradiation parameters (burnup, core fractionation, etc., cross-sections perturbations and the equivalence criterion (for instance the core target reactivity in pcm at the end of the irradiation cycle. The model output is the fresh fuel content such that target reactivity is reached at the end of the irradiation cycle. Those models are built and

  6. Setting UP a decontamination and dismantling (D and D) scenario - methodology and tools developed leopard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pradoura, F.

    2009-01-01

    At the AREVA NC La Hague site, the former nuclear spent fuel reprocessing plant UP2-400 was shutdown on December 30, 2003. Since then, the cleaning up and dismantling activities have been carried by the DV/PRO project, which is the program management organization settled by AREVA NC, for valorization projects. SGN, part of the AREVA NC Engineering Business Unit, operates as the main contractor of the DV/PRO project and provides project management services related to decommissioning and waste management. Hence, SGN is in charge of building D and D's scenarios for all the facilities of the UP2-400 plant, in compliance with safety, technical and financial requirements. Main outputs are logic diagrams, block flow diagrams, wastes and effluents throughputs. In order to meet with AREVA NC's requirements and expectations, SGN developed specific process and tools methods adapted to the scale and complexity of decommissioning a plant with several facilities, with different kind of processes (chemical, mechanical), some of which are in operation and other being dismantled. Considering the number of technical data and inputs to be managed, this methodology leads to complex outputs such as schedules, throughputs, work packages... The development, the maintenance and the modification of these outputs become more and more difficult with the complexity and the size of the plant considered. To cope with these issues, SGN CDE/DEM UP2-400 project team has developed a dedicated tool to assist and optimize in elaborating D and D scenarios. This tool is named LEOPARD (Logiciel d'Elaboration et d'Optimisation des Programmes d'Assainissement Radiologique et de Demantelement) (Software for the Development and Optimization of Radiological Clean up and Dismantling Programs). The availability of this tool allowed the rapid construction of a test case (demonstrator) that has convinced DV/PRO of its numerous advantages and of the future further development potentials. Presentations of LEOPARD

  7. Methods for the quantification of GHG emissions at the landscape level for developing countries in smallholder contexts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milne, Eleanor; Easter, Mark; Ogle, Stephen; Denef, Karolien; Paustian, Keith; Neufeldt, Henry; Rosenstock, Todd; Smalligan, Mike; Cerri, Carlos Eduardo; Malin, Daniella; Bernoux, Martial; Casarim, Felipe; Pearson, Timothy; Bird, David Neil; Steglich, Evelyn; Ostwald, Madelene

    2013-01-01

    Landscape scale quantification enables farmers to pool resources and expertise. However, the problem remains of how to quantify these gains. This article considers current greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods that can be used in a landscape scale analysis in terms of relevance to areas dominated by smallholders in developing countries. In landscape scale carbon accounting frameworks, measurements are an essential element. Sampling strategies need careful design to account for all pools/fluxes and to ensure judicious use of resources. Models can be used to scale-up measurements and fill data gaps. In recent years a number of accessible models and calculators have been developed which can be used at the landscape scale in developing country areas. Some are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method and others on dynamic ecosystem models. They have been developed for a range of different purposes and therefore vary in terms of accuracy and usability. Landscape scale assessments of GHGs require a combination of ground sampling, use of data from census, remote sensing (RS) or other sources and modelling. Fitting of all of these aspects together needs to be performed carefully to minimize uncertainties and maximize the use of scarce resources. This is especially true in heterogeneous landscapes dominated by smallholders in developing countries. (letter)

  8. Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—A case study in partnership development

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Erchia, Frank

    2016-10-21

    The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) is a successful example of collaboration between science and natural resource management at the landscape scale. In southwestern Wyoming, expanding energy and mineral development, urban growth, and other changes in land use over recent decades, combined with landscape-scale drivers such as climate change and invasive species, have presented compelling challenges to resource managers and a diverse group of Federal, State, industry, and non-governmental organizations, as well as citizen stakeholders. To address these challenges, the WLCI was established as a collaborative forum and interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. About a decade after being established, this report documents the establishment and history of the WLCI, focusing on the path to success of the initiative and providing insights and details that may be useful in developing similar partnerships in other locations. Not merely retrospective, the elements of the WLCI that are presented herein are still in play, still evolving, and still contributing to the resolution of compelling conservation challenges in the Western United States.The U.S. Geological Survey has developed many successful longstanding partnerships, of which the WLCI is one example.“As the Nation’s largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues, and problems. The diversity of our scientific expertise enables us to carry out large-scale, multi-disciplinary investigations and provide impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016).

  9. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as

  10. The Development of a Novel Perfused Cadaver Model With Dynamic Vital Sign Regulation and Real-World Scenarios to Teach Surgical Skills and Error Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minneti, Michael; Baker, Craig J; Sullivan, Maura E

    The landscape of graduate medical education has changed dramatically over the past decade and the traditional apprenticeship model has undergone scrutiny and modifications. The mandate of the 80-hour work-week, the introduction of integrated residency programs, increased global awareness about patient safety along with financial constraints have spurred changes in graduate educational practices. In addition, new technologies, more complex procedures, and a host of external constraints have changed where and how we teach technical and procedural skills. Simulation-based training has been embraced by the surgical community and has quickly become an essential component of most residency programs as a method to add efficacy to the traditional learning model. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to describe the development of a perfused cadaver model with dynamic vital sign regulation, and (2) to assess the impact of a curriculum using this model and real world scenarios to teach surgical skills and error management. By providing a realistic training environment our aim is to enhance the acquisition of surgical skills and provide a more thorough assessment of resident performance. Twenty-six learners participated in the scenarios. Qualitative data showed that participants felt that the simulation model was realistic, and that participating in the scenarios helped them gain new knowledge, learn new surgical techniques and increase their confidence performing the skill in a clinical setting. Identifying the importance of both technical and nontechnical skills in surgical education has hastened the need for more realistic simulators and environments in which they are placed. Team members should be able to interact in ways that allow for a global display of their skills thus helping to provide a more comprehensive assessment by faculty and learners. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Analysis of multiple failure accident scenarios for development of probabilistic safety assessment model for KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T.W.; Suk, S.D.; Chang, W.P.; Kwon, Y.M.; Jeong, H.Y.; Lee, Y.B.; Ha, K.S.; Kim, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    A sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), KALIMER-600, is under development at KAERI. Its fuel is the metal fuel of U-TRU-Zr and it uses sodium as coolant. Its advantages are found in the aspects of an excellent uranium resource utilization, inherent safety features, and nonproliferation. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) will be one of the initiating subjects for designing it from the aspects of a risk informed design (RID) as well as a technology-neutral licensing (TNL). The core damage is defined as coolant voiding, fuel melting, or cladding damage. Accident scenarios which lead to the core damage should be identified for the development of a Level-1 PSA model. The SSC-K computer code is used to identify the conditions which lead to core damage. KALIMER-600 has passive safety features such as passive shutdown functions, passive pump coast-down features, and passive decay heat removal systems. It has inherent reactivity feedback effects such as Doppler, sodium void, core axial expansion, control rod axial expansion, core radial expansion, etc. The accidents which are analyzed are the multiple failure accidents such as an unprotected transient overpower, a loss of flow, and a loss of heat sink events with degraded safety systems or functions. The safety functions to be considered here are a reactor trip, inherent reactivity feedback features, the pump coast-down, and the passive decay heat removal. (author)

  12. Window area and development drive spatial variation in bird-window collisions in an urban landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hager, Stephen B; Cosentino, Bradley J; McKay, Kelly J; Monson, Cathleen; Zuurdeeg, Walt; Blevins, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Collisions with windows are an important human-related threat to birds in urban landscapes. However, the proximate drivers of collisions are not well understood, and no study has examined spatial variation in mortality in an urban setting. We hypothesized that the number of fatalities at buildings varies with window area and habitat features that influence avian community structure. In 2010 we documented bird-window collisions (BWCs) and characterized avian community structure at 20 buildings in an urban landscape in northwestern Illinois, USA. For each building and season, we conducted 21 daily surveys for carcasses and nine point count surveys to estimate relative abundance, richness, and diversity. Our sampling design was informed by experimentally estimated carcass persistence times and detection probabilities. We used linear and generalized linear mixed models to evaluate how habitat features influenced community structure and how mortality was affected by window area and factors that correlated with community structure. The most-supported model was consistent for all community indices and included effects of season, development, and distance to vegetated lots. BWCs were related positively to window area and negatively to development. We documented mortalities for 16/72 (22%) species (34 total carcasses) recorded at buildings, and BWCs were greater for juveniles than adults. Based on the most-supported model of BWCs, the median number of annual predicted fatalities at study buildings was 3 (range = 0-52). These results suggest that patchily distributed environmental resources and levels of window area in buildings create spatial variation in BWCs within and among urban areas. Current mortality estimates place little emphasis on spatial variation, which precludes a fundamental understanding of the issue. To focus conservation efforts, we illustrate how knowledge of the structural and environmental factors that influence bird-window collisions can be used to

  13. Window area and development drive spatial variation in bird-window collisions in an urban landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen B Hager

    Full Text Available Collisions with windows are an important human-related threat to birds in urban landscapes. However, the proximate drivers of collisions are not well understood, and no study has examined spatial variation in mortality in an urban setting. We hypothesized that the number of fatalities at buildings varies with window area and habitat features that influence avian community structure. In 2010 we documented bird-window collisions (BWCs and characterized avian community structure at 20 buildings in an urban landscape in northwestern Illinois, USA. For each building and season, we conducted 21 daily surveys for carcasses and nine point count surveys to estimate relative abundance, richness, and diversity. Our sampling design was informed by experimentally estimated carcass persistence times and detection probabilities. We used linear and generalized linear mixed models to evaluate how habitat features influenced community structure and how mortality was affected by window area and factors that correlated with community structure. The most-supported model was consistent for all community indices and included effects of season, development, and distance to vegetated lots. BWCs were related positively to window area and negatively to development. We documented mortalities for 16/72 (22% species (34 total carcasses recorded at buildings, and BWCs were greater for juveniles than adults. Based on the most-supported model of BWCs, the median number of annual predicted fatalities at study buildings was 3 (range = 0-52. These results suggest that patchily distributed environmental resources and levels of window area in buildings create spatial variation in BWCs within and among urban areas. Current mortality estimates place little emphasis on spatial variation, which precludes a fundamental understanding of the issue. To focus conservation efforts, we illustrate how knowledge of the structural and environmental factors that influence bird

  14. Effects of New Fossil Fuel Developments on the Possibilities of Meeting 2C Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meindertsma, W.; Blok, K.

    2012-12-15

    Recent years have seen an increasing activity in developing new fossil fuel production capacity. This includes unconventional fossil fuels, such as tar sands and shale gas, fossil fuels from remote locations, and fossil fuels with a very large increase in production in the near future. In this report, the impact of such developments on our ability to mitigate climate change is investigated. Our inventory shows that the new fossil fuel developments currently underway consist of 29,400 billion cubic meters of natural gas, 260,000 million barrels of oil and 49,600 million tonnes of coal. The development of these new fossil fuels would result in emissions of 300 billion tonnes of CO2 -equivalent (CO2e) from 2012 until 2050. Until 2050, a 'carbon budget' of 1550 billion tonnes CO2e is still available if we want to of keep global warming below 2C with a 50% probability. For a 75% probability to stay below 2C this budget is only 1050 billion tonnes CO2e. So, the new fossil fuel developments identified in this report consume 20-33% of the remaining carbon budget until 2050. In a scenario where the new fossil fuels are developed, we need to embark on a rapid emission reductions pathway at the latest in 2019 in order to meet the 50% probability carbon budget. Avoiding the development of new fossil fuels will give us until 2025 to start further rapid emission reductions. These calculations are based on the assumption that the maximum emission reduction rate is 4% per year and that the maximum change in emission trend is 0.5 percentage point per year. The starting year for rapid emission reductions depends on the choice of these parameters. A sensitivity analysis shows that, in all cases, refraining from new fossil fuel development allows for a delay of 5 to 8 years before we should embark on a rapid emission reduction pathway. The high investments required for developing new fossil fuels lead to a lock in effect; once developed, these fossil fuels need to be

  15. Management and development of land in the name of the Green Economy: planning, landscape, efficiency, biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benvenuti, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Promoting sustainable economic development is the basis of the Green Economy: a new vision of Agriculture, Environmental and Regional policy, shared by the wine sector, especially on some crucial issues, such as reducing the consumption of agricultural land, recognition as economically important of the green agricultural production space, spreading of organic farming, adoption of good agricultural practices. Sustainability, in fact , is not just about the use of analysis tools (carbonfoot print, Waterfoot print, etc .) but is about innovations to be introduced in the entire production process, protection of biodiversity, ethic work in the vineyard and winery. It means to disseminate as much as possible all those practices that can enable a more efficient land management also considering the recent climate changes: introduction of agro-energy and precision agriculture, rational use of water resources, creation of an observatory on temperatures and an interactive mapping system, viticultural zoning and municipal planning to make concrete balance between vitality in agronomic sector and landscape quality. Realizing such a regional geopedological mapping about agricultural soil, will allow companies to display a real-time access to all the data needed for a sustainable management of the funds, not only it would be an important tool to support the technical choices of farmers, enhancing their potential and optimizing production in relation to the current climate crisis, but would have a strong impact in terms of managing and saving water and energy resources. A strong efficacy in this context should be recognized at the "Urban Regulation Plans of the Wine Cities", which have developed since 2007 on the base of the guidelines promoted by the Italian Association Città del Vino, in order to enhance the quality of wine districts. The foundations of this multidisciplinary tool are based on: • in-depth knowledge of the characteristics of the wine territory; • unity and

  16. Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

  17. Landscape structure and management alter the outcome of a pesticide ERA: Evaluating impacts of endocrine disruption using the ALMaSS European Brown Hare model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, Chris J; Dalby, Lars; Skov, Flemming

    2016-01-15

    There is a gradual change towards explicitly considering landscapes in regulatory risk assessment. To realise the objective of developing representative scenarios for risk assessment it is necessary to know how detailed a landscape representation is needed to generate a realistic risk assessment, and indeed how to generate such landscapes. This paper evaluates the contribution of landscape and farming components to a model based risk assessment of a fictitious endocrine disruptor on hares. In addition, we present methods and code examples for generation of landscape structures and farming simulation from data collected primarily for EU agricultural subsidy support and GIS map data. Ten different Danish landscapes were generated and the ERA carried out for each landscape using two different assumed toxicities. The results showed negative impacts in all cases, but the extent and form in terms of impacts on abundance or occupancy differed greatly between landscapes. A meta-model was created, predicting impact from landscape and farming characteristics. Scenarios based on all combinations of farming and landscape for five landscapes representing extreme and middle impacts were created. The meta-models developed from the 10 real landscapes failed to predict impacts for these 25 scenarios. Landscape, farming, and the emergent density of hares all influenced the results of the risk assessment considerably. The study indicates that prediction of a reasonable worst case scenario is difficult from structural, farming or population metrics; rather the emergent properties generated from interactions between landscape, management and ecology are needed. Meta-modelling may also fail to predict impacts, even when restricting inputs to combinations of those used to create the model. Future ERA may therefore need to make use of multiple scenarios representing a wide range of conditions to avoid locally unacceptable risks. This approach could now be feasible Europe wide given the

  18. Progress on advanced tokamak and steady-state scenario development on DIII-D and NSTX

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doyle, E J [Department of Electrical Engineering and PSTI, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States); Garofalo, A M [Columbia University, New York, New York 10027 (United States); Greenfield, C M [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Kaye, S M [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Menard, J E [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Murakami, M [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States); Sabbagh, S A [Columbia University, New York, New York 10027 (United States); Austin, M E [University of Texas-Austin, Austin, Texas 78712 (United States); Bell, R E [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Burrell, K H [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Ferron, J R [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Gates, D A [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab., Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Groebner, R J; Hyatt, A W; Luce, T C; Petty, C C; Wade, M R; Waltz, R E [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Jayakumar, R J [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore, California 94550 (United States); Kinsey, J E [Lehigh Univ., Bethlehem, Pennsylvania 18015 (United States); LeBlanc, B P [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab., Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); McKee, G R [Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 (United States); Okabayashi, M [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab., Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Peng, Y-K M [Oak Ridge National Lab., Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States); Politzer, P A [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Rhodes, T L [Dept. of Electrical Engineering and PSTI, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States)

    2006-12-15

    Advanced tokamak (AT) research seeks to develop steady-state operating scenarios for ITER and other future devices from a demonstrated scientific basis. Normalized target parameters for steady-state operation on ITER are 100% non-inductive current operation with a bootstrap current fraction f{sub BS} {>=} 60%, q{sub 95} {approx} 4-5 and G {identical_to}{beta}{sub N}H{sub scaling}/q{sub 95}{sup 2} {>=}0.3. Progress in realizing such plasmas is considered in terms of the development of plasma control capabilities and scientific understanding, leading to improved AT performance. NSTX has demonstrated active resistive wall mode stabilization with low, ITER-relevant, rotation rates below the critical value required for passive stabilization. On DIII-D, experimental observations and GYRO simulations indicate that ion internal transport barrier (ITB) formation at rational-q surfaces is due to equilibrium zonal flows generating high local E ? B shear levels. In addition, stability modelling for DIII-D indicates a path to operation at {beta}{sub N} {>=} 4 with q{sub min} {>=} 2, using broad, hollow current profiles to increase the ideal wall stability limit. Both NSTX and DIII-D have optimized plasma performance and expanded AT operational limits. NSTX now has long-pulse, high performance discharges meeting the normalized targets for an spherical torus-based component test facility. DIII-D has developed sustained discharges combining high beta and ITBs, with performance approaching levels required for AT reactor concepts, e.g. {beta}{sub N} = 4, H{sub 89} = 2.5, with f{sub BS} > 60%. Most importantly, DIII-D has developed ITER steady-state demonstration discharges, simultaneously meeting the targets for steady-state Q {>=} 5 operation on ITER set out above, substantially increasing confidence in ITER meeting its steady-state performance objective.

  19. Examining Cultural Drifts in Artworks through History and Development: Cultural Comparisons between Japanese and Western Landscape Paintings and Drawings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina eNand

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Research on cultural products suggest that there are substantial cultural variations between East Asian and European landscape masterpieces and contemporary members’ landscape artwork (Masuda et al., 2008, and that these cultural differences in drawing styles emerge around the age of 8 (Senzaki et al., 2014. However, culture is not static. To explore the dynamics of historical and ontogenetic influence on artistic expressions, we examined (1 17th to 20th century Japanese and Western landscape masterpieces, and (2 cross-sectional adolescent data in landscape artworks alongside previous findings of elementary school-aged children, and undergraduates. The results showed cultural variations in artworks and masterpieces as well as substantial cultural drifts (Herskovits, 1948 where at certain time periods in history and in development, people’s expressions deviated from culturally default patterns but occasionally returned to its previous state. The bidirectional influence of culture and implications for furthering the discipline of cultural psychology will be discussed.

  20. Examining cultural drifts in artworks through history and development: cultural comparisons between Japanese and western landscape paintings and drawings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nand, Kristina; Masuda, Takahiko; Senzaki, Sawa; Ishii, Keiko

    2014-01-01

    Research on cultural products suggest that there are substantial cultural variations between East Asian and European landscape masterpieces and contemporary members' landscape artwork (Masuda et al., 2008c), and that these cultural differences in drawing styles emerge around the age of 8 (Senzaki et al., 2014b). However, culture is not static. To explore the dynamics of historical and ontogenetic influence on artistic expressions, we examined (1) 17–20th century Japanese and Western landscape masterpieces, and (2) cross-sectional adolescent data in landscape artworks alongside previous findings of elementary school-aged children, and undergraduates. The results showed cultural variations in artworks and masterpieces as well as substantial “cultural drifts” (Herskovits, 1948) where at certain time periods in history and in development, people's expressions deviated from culturally default patterns but occasionally returned to its previous state. The bidirectional influence of culture and implications for furthering the discipline of cultural psychology will be discussed. PMID:25285085

  1. A probabilistic scenario approach for developing improved Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+ baselines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malika Virah-Sawmy

    2015-07-01

    By generating robust probabilistic baseline scenarios, exponential smoothing models can facilitate the effectiveness of REDD+ payments, support a more efficient allocation of scarce conservation resources, and improve our understanding of effective forest conservation investments, also beyond REDD+.

  2. Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musulin, Mike, II

    The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes

  3. Nirex methodology for scenario and conceptual model development. An international peer review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-06-01

    Nirex has responsibilities for nuclear waste management in the UK. The company's top level objectives are to maintain technical credibility on deep disposal, to gain public acceptance for a deep geologic repository, and to provide relevant advice to customers on the safety implications of their waste packaging proposals. Nirex utilizes peer reviews as appropriate to keep its scientific tools up-to-date and to periodically verify the quality of its products. The NEA formed an International Review Team (IRT) consisting of four internationally recognised experts plus a member of the NEA Secretariat. The IRT performed an in-depth analysis of five Nirex scientific reports identified in the terms of reference of the review. The review was to primarily judge whether the Nirex methodology provides an adequate framework to support the building of a future licensing safety case. Another objective was to judge whether the methodology could aid in establishing a better understanding, and, ideally, enhance acceptance of a repository among stakeholders. Methodologies for conducting safety assessments include at a very basic level the identification of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the system at hand, their convolution in scenarios for analysis, and the formulation of conceptual models to be addressed through numerical modelling. The main conclusion of the IRT is that Nirex has developed a potentially sound methodology for the identification and analysis of FEPs and for the identification of conceptual model needs and model requirements. The work is still in progress and is not yet complete. (R.P.)

  4. Using Scenario Development to Encourage Tourism Business Resilience in the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Tourism is an economic sector anticipated to be greatly affected by climate change, but the potential impacts of climate change on tourism have rarely been examined in detail in existing research. Past research has shown, however, that the small and medium businesses that dominate the tourism sector could be greatly impacted by climate change. We have presented global climate and hydrologic model research results to pre-selected coastal tourism business owners in the Great Lakes region to determine the best methods for delivering user-friendly future climate scenarios, given that existing research suggests that climate change adaptive behaviors and resilience increase with information (message) clarity. Model output analyses completed for this work have focused on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events due to their economic impact on tourism activities. We have also experimented with the development and use of infographics because of their ability to present information quickly and clearly. Initial findings of this work will be presented as well as lessons learned from stakeholder interactions. Two main results include that (1) extreme weather events may have more meaning to tourism business owners than general trends in climate and (2) long-term planning for climate is extremely difficult for tourism business owners because they operate on a much shorter planning timeline than those generally used for climate change analyses.

  5. Development of Cyber Theater titled "PINOCCHIO" and Cyber Theater Scenario Language: CTSL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Matsuda

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available In Japan, most of children haven't read the Fairy Tales or tales of old Japan because the high technology video games are more exciting than most of picture books. But they must be effective to bring up the children's cultivation of aesthetic sensitivity. And we have heard from teachers of elementary schools that most of themes of computer education in school are the operation of Painting Tool or Game Software. To improve these problems and to aid the courses of computer-based education in elementary school, we developed new educational support tool named Cyber Theater. Cyber Theater provides the capability of easy making the 3D-CG animation of children's story by using Script language named CTSL (Cyber Theater Scenario Language. We hope schoolteachers will be able to use Cyber Tales as teaching materials in elementary schools. We also hope that upper-aged students (including junior high school students are able to make their original CG-animation stories as the Creative Lesson.

  6. a Novel Methodology for Developing Inundation Maps Under Climate Change Scenarios Using One-Dimensional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.; Raghavan, V. S.; Liew, S. C.

    2011-07-01

    Climate change is expected to cause increases in extreme climatic events such as heavy rainstorms and rising tidal level. Heavy rainstorms are known to be serious causes of flooding problems in big cities. Thus, high density residential and commercial areas along the rivers are facing risks of being flooded. For that reason, inundated area determination is now being considered as one of the most important areas of research focus in flood forecasting. In such a context, this paper presents the development of a floodmap in determining flood-prone areas and its volumes. The areas and volumes of flood are computed by the inundated level using the existing digital elevation model (DEM) of a hypothetical catchment chosen for study. The study focuses on the application of Flood Early Warning System (Delft — FEWS, Deltares), which is designated to work with the SOBEK (Delft) to simulate the extent of stormwater on the ground surface. The results from FEWS consist of time-series of inundation maps in Image file format (PNG) and ASCII format, which are subsequently imported to ArcGIS for further calculations. In addition, FEWS results provide options to export the video clip of water spreading out over the catchment. Consequently, inundated area and volume will be determined by the water level on the ground. Final floodmap is displayed in colors created by ArcGIS. Various flood map results corresponding to climate change scenarios will be displayed in the main part of the paper.

  7. A methodology to modify land uses in a transit oriented development scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Akshay

    2018-05-01

    Developing nations are adopting transit oriented development (TOD) strategies to decongest their transportation systems. These strategies are often adopted after the preparation of land use plans. The goal of this study was to build a methodology to modify these land uses using soft computing. This can help to achieve alternate land use plans relevant to TOD. The methodology incorporates TOD characteristics and objectives. Global TOD parameters (density, diversity, and distance to transit) were studied. Expert opinions gave weights and ranges for the parameters in an Indian TOD scenario. Rules to allocate land use was developed. Objective functions were defined. Four objectives were used. First was to maximize employment density, residential density and percent of mix land use. Second was to shape density and diversity with respect to distance. Third was to minimize degree of land use change, and fourth was to increase compactness of the land use allocation. The methodology was applied to two sectors of Naya Raipur, the new planned administrative capital of the state of Chhattisgarh, India. The city has implemented TOD in the form of Bus rapid transit system (BRTS) over an existing land use. Thousand random plans were generated through the methodology. Top 30 plans were selected as parent population for modifications through genetic algorithm (GA). Alternate plans were generated at the end of GA cycle. The best alternate plan was compared with successful BRTS and TOD land uses for its merits and demerits. It was also compared with the initial land use plan for empirical validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    OpenAIRE

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as challenging and useful, but also highlighted problems of distributed communication. The findings were used to improve the training as well as current use of the technology in the organisation. Research ...

  9. Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

    2017-01-01

    With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

  10. Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Rothwell

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

  11. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  12. Developing multinational radioactive waste repositories: Infrastructural framework and scenarios of cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-10-01

    Currently the management of radioactive wastes centres on national strategies for collection, treatment, interim storage and disposal. This tendency to focus exclusively on national strategies reflects the fact that radioactive waste is a sensitive political issue, making cooperation among countries difficult. It is consistent with the accepted principle that a country that enjoys the benefit of nuclear energy, or the utilization of nuclear technology, should also take full responsibility for managing the generated radioactive waste. However, there are countries whose radioactive waste volumes do not easily justify a national repository, and/or countries that do not have the resources or favourable natural conditions for waste disposal to dedicate to a national repository project or would prefer to collaborate in shared initiatives because of their economic advantages. In such cases it may be appropriate for these countries to engage in a multinational collaborative effort to ensure that they have access to a common repository, in order that they can fulfil their responsibilities for their managing wastes safely. In response to requests from several Member States expressing an interest in multinational disposal options, the IAEA produced in 1998 a TECDOC outlining the important factors to be taken into account in the process of realizing such options. These factors include for example, technical (safety), institutional (legal, safeguards), economic (financial) socio-political (public acceptance) and ethical considerations. The present report reviews the work done in the previous study, taking into account developments since its publication as well as current activities in the field of multinational repositories. The report attempts to define the concepts involved in the creation of multinational repositories, to explore the likely scenarios, to examine the conditions for successful implementation, and to point out the benefits and challenges inherent to

  13. Limits to oil pricing: scenario planning as a device to understand oil price developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Austvik, O.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper underlines that the politicizing of the oil market makes economics, politics and even pure warfare important elements in the formation of the price of oil. The disagreement about which theory to use to analyze the market and the bad record of oil price forecasting indicates that conventional oil market models should be critically re-assessed. The scenario planning methodology presented in this paper may be one alternative approach. SP does not overthrow any other theories of the market. But it claims that no single discipline is able to tell the whole truth about the market. The SP approach stresses and clarifies the role of uncertainty in the development of oil prices and underlines the importance of the understanding of the functioning of the market. It argues that without a cross-disciplinary approach, with an adequate choice of parameters, at the right level of in-depth discussion, the analysis may lose essential input or drown in detail. As an example of the methodology, an analysis of development of oil prices in the nineties is presented. It is shown that lower (indicated as 15-20 S/bbl) and upper (indicated as 30-40 S/bbl) limits of the price in the long run can be constructed, based on economic, political and strategic reasoning. It is also argued that short run 'shocks' outside these limits may have become less likely, because: (1) the strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) will cut off the most extreme prices above the upper limit and (2) the existence of a supply side regulator, like OPEC, will prevent prices from dropping below the lower limit for any longer period of time. Sensitivity analysis tests the 'robustness' of the approach. 10 refs., 1 fig

  14. The Chicken Creek catchment as observatory for early-stage landscape development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaaf, W.; Gerwin, W.; Pohle, I.; Maurer, T. J.

    2017-12-01

    Constructed in 2005, the Chicken Creek catchment offers unique opportunities to observe ecosystem and landscape development. The site was constructed within the post-mining landscape of a lignite mine in Germany (State of Brandenburg, 100 km southeast from Berlin). Using large mining machinery a clay layer was dumped as an aquiclude covered by a sandy layer as the aquifer of this 6 ha artificial watershed. After leveling the surface no further reclamation measures were applied and the site was left to a non-managed primary succession. A comprehensive monitoring program was established directly after the end of construction works including meteorological, hydrological, biogeochemical and biological parameters. Time series for these measured parameters are available for the last 12 years. Based on these data, the growing interactions between different compartments of the developing landscape give valuable insights into the functioning of ecosystems under transition. We will introduce the site as well as recent analyzes of hydrological data against the background of the ongoing development of the soil and the vegetation cover. The annual water balance was calculated based on known and modeled substrate volumes and water contents. The dynamics of the balance are clearly influenced by the development of the ecosystem, e.g. by the occurrence and rapid propagation of woody species. It was possible to define transitional states, which can be characterized by specific feedback processes between abiotic and biotic compartments. Our results indicate that for small catchments with a highly dynamic ecological development like the Chicken Creek, the knowledge about saturated and unsaturated storage volumes enables a good estimate and closure of the water balance using a rather simple approach. Uncertainties in storage changes partly compensate each other and the high variability of soil moisture in the unsaturated zone is of minor impact compared to the storage volume changes

  15. Evaluation of urban sprawl and urban landscape pattern in a rapidly developing region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Zhi-Qiang; Dai, Fu-Qiang; Sun, Cheng

    2012-10-01

    Urban sprawl is a worldwide phenomenon happening particularly in rapidly developing regions. A study on the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban sprawl and urban pattern is useful for the sustainable management of land management and urban land planning. The present research explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban sprawl in the context of a rapid urbanization process in a booming economic region of southern China from 1979 to 2005. Three urban sprawl types are distinguished by analyzing overlaid urban area maps of two adjacent study years which originated from the interpretation of remote sensed images and vector land use maps. Landscape metrics are used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of urban sprawl for each study period. Study results show that urban areas have expanded dramatically, and the spatiotemporal landscape pattern configured by the three sprawl types changed obviously. The different sprawl type patterns in five study periods have transformed significantly, with their proportions altered both in terms of quantity and of location. The present research proves that urban sprawl quantification and pattern analysis can provide a clear perspective of the urbanization process during a long time period. Particularly, the present study on urban sprawl and sprawl patterns can be used by land use and urban planners.

  16. The Role of Participatory Modeling in Landscape Approaches to Reconcile Conservation and Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marieke Sandker

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Conservation organizations are increasingly turning to landscape approaches to achieve a balance between conservation and development goals. We use six case studies in Africa and Asia to explore the role of participatory modeling with stakeholders as one of the steps towards implementing a landscape approach. The modeling was enthusiastically embraced by some stakeholders and led to impact in some cases. Different stakeholders valued the modeling exercise differently. Noteworthy was the difference between those stakeholders connected to the policy process and scientists; the presence of the former in the modeling activities is key to achieving policy impacts, and the latter were most critical of participatory modeling. Valued aspects of the modeling included stimulating cross-sector strategic thinking, and helping participants to confront the real drivers of change and to recognize trade-offs. The modeling was generally considered to be successful in building shared understanding of issues. This understanding was gained mainly in the discussions held in the process of building the model rather than in the model outputs. The model itself reflects but a few of the main elements of the usually rich discussions that preceded its finalization. Problems emerged when models became too complex. Key lessons for participatory modeling are the need for good facilitation in order to maintain a balance between "models as stories" and technical modeling, and the importance of inviting the appropriate stakeholders to achieve impact.

  17. A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

    2017-10-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

  18. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

  19. A Sectoral Micro-Economic Approach to Scenario Selection and Development: The Case of the Greek Power Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandros Flamos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Generating policy-relevant scenarios is instrumental for understanding and developing policy measures. These are especially relevant to the power sector. Practitioners have been working on policy-relevant scenarios for the ex-ante assessment of policy measures in a meaningful way for end-users related to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper presents a method for generating such policy relevant scenarios by focusing on the actor-contingent elements of the scenarios, i.e., the developments that are within the control of system actors to change or bring about. Several scenario techniques focusing on systematic-formalized or quantitative approaches have been published on this front over the past few years. Here, we introduce a methodology that is best suited for the assessment of the expected effect of different policy measures on the involved stakeholders’ behavior as well as for the analysis of the interactions between different policy measures as reflected on their impact on the strength and direction of the provided incentives. The applicability of our methodology is demonstrated for the case of the Greek power market. It was further evaluated in view of the challenges related to the issues of generation capacity adequacy and increased fiscal deficit. The strategic implications of the proposed approach concern the demonstration of the benefits from adopting a policy assessment methodology that focus on stakeholder expectations and interactions.

  20. Scenario Approach to the Development and Use of Learning Management System in Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martyushova Y.G.,

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article offers a scenario approach to the design of learning management system (LMS structure. It is argued that the LMS structure and it functional components depend on the scenarios of its use in educational process which, in turn, are determined by the type of subject that is based on the main component of education content. There are three categories of the LMS users in the educational process in university: students, teachers, and administrators, and their roles differ from each other. The article provides detailed scenarios of how the LMS is used by various categories of users and describes the structure of the LMS in relation to these scenarios. On the one hand, the LMS represents a structured base of content: that is, it contains theoretical materials as well as tasks and exercises along with certain scales that reflect their difficulty. The weight of these tasks, initially determined by experts, can then be automatically corrected using the methods of mathematical statistics. On the other hand, implementing the described scenarios requires an electronic operating cover of the LMS, among the functions of which is the organization of control and self-checking, as well as providing storage and processing statistics of the LMS use. These statistics should then be automatically turned into the current rating of users which is important for knowledge evaluation and support of learning motivation in students during a semester.

  1. External and Internal Impact on Soviet Memorial Landscape Development by THE World War II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Cherkasski

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The World War II led to serious casualties and left deep scars / wounds of memory. As the victory over occupation regime was glorified, honored and starting from 1965 was widely celebrated at national level, there was a great gap between official and personal memory of war. Monuments are one of the forms of living examples of the past and thus are reliable sources for the study of different epochs and Zeitgeist / spirit of time and their changes. This article considers the development of Soviet memorial landscape by the World War II starting from the war termination to the Soviet Union collapse. Special attention is attached to internal political and international views / interpretations and development with respect to victims of war. In other words, the process of different groups of war victims exclusion and inclusion in Soviet collective memory under the influence of internal political and foreign political interests symbiosis. And, as a result, resultant attitude towards memorial places.

  2. Comparing the ecological impacts of wind and oil & gas development: a landscape scale assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan F Jones

    Full Text Available Energy production in the United States is in transition as the demand for clean and domestic power increases. Wind energy offers the benefit of reduced emissions, yet, like oil and natural gas, it also contributes to energy sprawl. We used a diverse set of indicators to quantify the ecological impacts of oil, natural gas, and wind energy development in Colorado and Wyoming. Aerial imagery was supplemented with empirical data to estimate habitat loss, fragmentation, potential for wildlife mortality, susceptibility to invasion, biomass carbon lost, and water resources. To quantify these impacts we digitized the land-use footprint within 375 plots, stratified by energy type. We quantified the change in impacts per unit area and per unit energy produced, compared wind energy to oil and gas, and compared landscapes with and without energy development. We found substantial differences in impacts between energy types for most indicators, although the magnitude and direction of the differences varied. Oil and gas generally resulted in greater impacts per unit area but fewer impacts per unit energy compared with wind. Biologically important and policy-relevant outcomes of this study include: 1 regardless of energy type, underlying land-use matters and development in already disturbed areas resulted in fewer total impacts; 2 the number and source of potential mortality varied between energy types, however, the lack of robust mortality data limits our ability to use this information to estimate and mitigate impacts; and 3 per unit energy produced, oil and gas extraction was less impactful on an annual basis but is likely to have a much larger cumulative footprint than wind energy over time. This rapid evaluation of landscape-scale energy development impacts could be replicated in other regions, and our specific findings can help meet the challenge of balancing land conservation with society's demand for energy.

  3. Comparing the Ecological Impacts of Wind and Oil & Gas Development: A Landscape Scale Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Nathan F.; Pejchar, Liba

    2013-01-01

    Energy production in the United States is in transition as the demand for clean and domestic power increases. Wind energy offers the benefit of reduced emissions, yet, like oil and natural gas, it also contributes to energy sprawl. We used a diverse set of indicators to quantify the ecological impacts of oil, natural gas, and wind energy development in Colorado and Wyoming. Aerial imagery was supplemented with empirical data to estimate habitat loss, fragmentation, potential for wildlife mortality, susceptibility to invasion, biomass carbon lost, and water resources. To quantify these impacts we digitized the land-use footprint within 375 plots, stratified by energy type. We quantified the change in impacts per unit area and per unit energy produced, compared wind energy to oil and gas, and compared landscapes with and without energy development. We found substantial differences in impacts between energy types for most indicators, although the magnitude and direction of the differences varied. Oil and gas generally resulted in greater impacts per unit area but fewer impacts per unit energy compared with wind. Biologically important and policy-relevant outcomes of this study include: 1) regardless of energy type, underlying land-use matters and development in already disturbed areas resulted in fewer total impacts; 2) the number and source of potential mortality varied between energy types, however, the lack of robust mortality data limits our ability to use this information to estimate and mitigate impacts; and 3) per unit energy produced, oil and gas extraction was less impactful on an annual basis but is likely to have a much larger cumulative footprint than wind energy over time. This rapid evaluation of landscape-scale energy development impacts could be replicated in other regions, and our specific findings can help meet the challenge of balancing land conservation with society’s demand for energy. PMID:24312296

  4. Use of multitemporal InSAR data to develop geohazard scenarios for Bandung, Western Java, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvi, Stefano; Tolomei, Cristiano; Duro, Javier; Pezzo, Giuseppe; Koudogbo, Fifamè

    2015-04-01

    The Greater Bandung metropolitan area is the second largest urban area in Indonesia, with a population of 8.6 million. It is subject to a variety of geohazards: volcanic hazards from seven active volcanoes within a radius of 50 km; high flood hazards, seismic hazard due to crustal active faults, the best known being the 30-km long Lembang fault, 10 km North of the city centre; subsidence hazards due to strong aquifer depletion; landslide hazard in the surrounding high country. In the framework of the FP7 RASOR project, multitemporal satellite SAR data have been processed over Bandung, Western Java. We used the SBAS InSAR technique (Berardino et al., 2002) to process two ALOS-1 datasets, to investigate the various sources of surface deformation acting in the area in the period 2008-2011. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) has also been applied to achieve ground motion measurements with millimetric precision and high accuracy. The PSI processing technique considers a system of points that reflect the radar signal from the satellite continuously through the time. It makes use of differential interferometric phase measurements to generate long term terrain deformation and digital surface model maps. The GlobalSARTM algorithms developed by Altamira Information are applied to COSMO-SkyMed data acquired to measure ground motion over the area of interest. Strong ground displacements (up to 7 cm/yr) due to groundwater abstraction have been measured in the Bandung basin. The identification of long wavelength signals from tectonic sources is difficult due to the limited InSAR coherence outside of the urban environment. Limited deformation is observed also in the Tangkuban Perahu volcano to the north. The spatial and temporal distribution of the ground motion is important supporting information for the generation of long term subsidence and flood hazard scenarios.

  5. Electrical demand forecast in two different scenarios of socio-economic development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goni, M.R.

    1996-01-01

    A projection of electrical demand for two different scenarios is presented in the study. The study period is 1993-2010 and 1993 has been taken as base year. In this planning study MAED program was used as well as all available information from INDEC (National Statistical Body), CAMMESA (Electrical Market Company) and Ministery of Economy. The results in the base year achieved an accuracy higher than 98%. The scenarios described two different rates of growth and electrical penetration in energy uses. (author). 3 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

  6. Age-dependent decay in the landscape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winitzki, Sergei

    2008-01-01

    The picture of the 'multiverse' arising in diverse cosmological scenarios involves transitions between metastable vacuum states. It was pointed out by Krauss and Dent that the transition rates decrease at very late times, leading to a dependence of the transition probability between vacua on the age of each vacuum region. I investigate the implications of this non-Markovian, age-dependent decay on the global structure of the spacetime in landscape scenarios. I show that the fractal dimension of the eternally inflating domain is precisely equal to 3, instead of being slightly below 3, which is the case in scenarios with purely Markovian, age-independent decay. I develop a complete description of a non-Markovian landscape in terms of a nonlocal master equation. Using this description I demonstrate by an explicit calculation that, under some technical assumptions about the landscape, the probabilistic predictions of our position in the landscape are essentially unchanged, regardless of the measure used to extract these predictions. I briefly discuss the physical plausibility of realizing non-Markovian vacuum decay in cosmology in view of the possible decoherence of the metastable quantum state.

  7. Co-production and modeling landscape change - successes and challenges in developing useful climate science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timm, K.; Reynolds, J.; Littell, J. S.; Murphy, K.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; Gray, S. T.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, S. T.

    2017-12-01

    Responding to the impacts of climate change and generating information that helps inform resource management requires exceptional communication and collaboration among researchers, managers, and other stakeholders. However, there is relatively little guidance on how to practically develop, facilitate, and evaluate this process given the highly specific and localized nature of many co-production efforts in terms of information needs, research questions, partners, and associated institutions. The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada was developed to understand how climate change influences interactions among disturbance (e.g. wildfire, thermokarst), permafrost, hydrology, and vegetation and identify how these changes affect valuable ecosystem services. The IEM was a unique co-production effort in that it was driven by broad management interests (rather than one research question), and because of the landscape-scale outputs, much broader engagement was warranted. Communication between the research team and the broader community of resource managers was facilitated by the Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and the Alaska Climate Science Center. Team members' reflections on the project confirm the importance of deliberate approaches to collaboration, where everyone has frequent opportunities to discuss goals, assumptions, and presumed outcomes of the project itself, as well as the elements of the process (i.e. meetings, reports, etc.). However, managing these activities requires significant time, resources, and perhaps more dedicated personnel. The lessons learned from the design and application of the IEM are highly relevant to researchers and land managers in other regions that are considering the development of a similar tool or an undertaking of similar magnitude, scale, and complexity.

  8. The Interaction Between Landscape Architecture and Urban Development. Do we Have a Common Goal?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaiva Deveikienė

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the problem of the relationship and interaction between urban design and landscape architecture. This refers to the period of the modern city from the late nineteenth century to the present day. There are presented and discussed urbanization processes and examples of solutions with emphasis on problems arising from the relationship between a city and nature as well as those related to urban landscape and sustainability of urban landscaping in the twentieth century.

  9. Integrating natural disturbances and management activities to examine risks and opportunities in the central Oregon landscape analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Theresa Burcsu; Janet Ohmann; Ryan Singleton

    2010-01-01

    We used state and transition models to integrate natural disturbances and management activities for a 275 000-ha landscape in the central Oregon Cascades. The landscape consists of a diverse mix of land ownerships, land use allocations, and environments. Three different management scenarios were developed from public input: (1) no management except wildfire suppression...

  10. 78 FR 64153 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-28

    .... OCC-2012-0016] Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress... the stress test horizon. The variables specified for each scenario generally address economic activity... institutions by November 15th of each year. This document articulates the principles that the OCC will apply to...

  11. 78 FR 72534 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-03

    ... FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION 12 CFR Part 325 Policy Statement on the Principles for... stress test horizon. The variables specified for each scenario generally address economic activity, asset..., 2012, that articulated the principles the FDIC will apply to develop and distribute the stress test...

  12. Visual quality evaluation of urban commercial streetscape for the development of landscape visual planning system in provincial street corridors in Malang, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santosa, H.; Ernawati, J.; Wulandari, L. D.

    2018-03-01

    The visual aesthetic experience in urban spaces is important in establishing a comfortable and satisfying experience for the community. The embodiment of a good visual image of urban space will encourage the emergence of positive perceptions and meanings stimulating the community to produce a good reaction to its urban space. Moreover, to establish a Good Governance in urban planning and design, it is necessary to boost and promote a community participation in the process of controlling the visual quality of urban space through the visual quality evaluation on urban street corridors. This study is an early stage as part of the development of ‘Landscape Visual Planning System’ on the commercial street corridor in Malang. Accordingly, the research aims to evaluate the physical characteristics and the public preferences of the spatial and visual aspects in five provincial road corridors in Malang. This study employs a field survey methods, and an environmental aesthetics approach through semantic differential method. The result of the identification of physical characteristics and the assessment of public preferences on the spatial and visual aspects of the five provincial streets serve as the basis for constructing the 3d interactive simulation scenarios in the Landscape Visual Planning System.

  13. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  14. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

    2006-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

  15. Assessment of post closure radioactive safety for the Korean reference disposal system: development of scenarios and quantitative assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C. H.; Hwang, Y. S.; Lee, Y. M.

    2005-01-01

    The total system performance assessment (TSPA) on the Korean reference disposal system has been performed for different types of scenarios. Firstly two reference scenarios, the natural discharge and well ones are developed assessed. The natural discharge scenario assumes that a radionuclide is released from a waste container with an average lifetime of 1,000 years by intruding groundwater to a biosphere through a bentonite buffer and a natural barrier composed of a fractured porous rock and a major water conducting feature (MWCF). The well scenario describes that a radionuclide passing through a buffer enters a fractured rock which is intersected with a drinking well. Two scenarios are named as R1 and R2 respectively. The third scenario is for the initial waste container failure case. A waste container is apt to have initial defects during manufacturing and transportation to a deposition hole. The probability function of the ratio of waste container failure is assumed based on the engineering sense. The rest of waste containers are assumed to have full function of isolation of hazardous nuclides during the lifetime. This initial container failure scenario (ICF) has two different variations: one with a lifetime of 1,000 years ana the other with 10,000 years. Two variations are assessed for two different biosphere, natural discharge and well. The forth one is to assess the impact of excavation disturbed zones. Deposition tunnels are excavated by tunnel boring machine (TBM) or controlled blast (CB). The disturbed zone in assumed to be 30 cm and 1 meter for TBN and CB respectively. Six cases are developed for the EDZ scenarios considering all possible combination of changes in permeability a fracture aperture, and a porosity of a fractured rock. The fifth scenario stipulates the change of long term climate (LTC). The ice age assumed to be prevailed again after a few tens of thousand years. The advent of the ice age alters groundwater composition, pathways, and most

  16. A model of late quaternary landscape development in the Delaware Valley, New Jersey and Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridge, J.C.; Evenson, E.B.; Sevon, W.D.

    1992-01-01

    In the Delaware Valley of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania the late Quaternary history of colluviation, fluvial adjustment, and soil formation is based on the ages of pre-Wisconsinan soils and glacial deposits which are indicated by feld relationships and inferred from mid-latitude climate changes indicated by marine oxygen-isotope records. The area is divided into four terranes characterized by sandstone, gneiss, slate and carbonate rocks. Since the last pre-Wisconsinan glaciation (> 130 ka, inferred to be late Illinoian), each terrane responded differently to chemical and mechanical weathering. During the Sangamon interglacial stage (??? 130-75 ka) in situ weathering is inferred to have occurred at rates greater than transportation of material which resulted in the formation of deep, highly weathered soil and saprolite, and dissolution of carbonate rocks. Cold climatic conditions during the Wisconsinan, on the other hand, induced erosion of the landscape at rates faster than soil development. Upland erosion during the Wisconsinan removed pre-Wisconsinan soil and glacial sediment and bedrock to produce muddy to blocky colluvium, gre??zes lite??es, and alluvial fans on footslopes. Fluvial gravel and overlying colluvium in the Delaware Valley, both buried by late Wisconsinan outwash, are inferred to represent episodes of early and middle Wisconsinan (??? 75-25 ka) upland erosion and river aggradiation followed by river degradation and colluvium deposition. Early-middle Wisconsinan colluvium is more voluminous than later colluvium despite colder, possibly permafrost conditions during the late Wisconsinan ??? 25-10 ka). Extensive colluviation during the early and middle Wisconsinan resulted from a longer (50 kyr), generally cold interval of erosion with a greater availability of easily eroded pre-Wisconsinan surficial materials on uplands than during the late Wisconsinan. After recession of late Wisconsinan ice from its terminal position, soil formation and

  17. Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milakis, D.; Snelder, M.; Van Arem, B.; Van Wee, G.P.; Homem De Almeida Rodriguez Correia, G.

    2016-01-01

    Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, less is known about when automated vehicles will hit the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transportation technology will affect transportation demand and planning. This study identified through scenario analysis

  18. Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands : Scenarios for 2030 and 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milakis, D.; Snelder, M.; van Arem, B.; van Wee, G.P.; Homem de Almeida Correia, G.

    2017-01-01

    Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to

  19. Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: Scenarios for 2030 and 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milakis, D.; Snelder, M.; Arem, B. van; Wee, B. van; Almeida Correia, G.H. de

    2017-01-01

    Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to

  20. Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I European and Mediterranean scenario development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.; Patel, M.; Rothman, D.

    2006-01-01

    Desertification in the Northern Mediterranean region can be effectively managed only through an understanding of the principal ecological, socio-cultural and economic drivers. Scenarios can play an important role in the understanding of such a complex system. Following the fundamentals of Integrated

  1. Conceptual model development for landscape management in the mountains of the Indian Himalayan region: an approach for sustainable socio-ecological development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Nautiyal

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at presenting a conceptual model for landscape management in the Himalayan region of India, using quantitative/mathematical approach. Keeping in view the requirement, (based on fifteen years empirical field work in the Himalayan region and as well as literature survey the MODAM (Multiple Objectives Decision Support Tools for Landscape Management model along with linear programming approach was adopted with a view to presenting additional methodological perspectives on interdisciplinary landscape research. The work has stemmed out from the original research contribution, which tries to integrate interdisciplinary research planning with landscape management related research in the Himalayan region. This biodiversity hotspot has relatively high complexity in terms of sustainable socioeconomic development vis a vis conservation and management of the resources. The concepts and insights presented in this article will provide the basis for a discussion, on decisionmaking issues among multidisciplinary experts with regard to sustainable socioecological development within complex environments.

  2. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  3. The development of method of recultivating landscapes which have been disturbed by industrial activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verner, K

    1979-01-01

    Difficulties, which appear with the combined investigation of the Comecon member states concerning the problems of preserving the environment with the introduction of mining operations (the need for various terms, the differences in methods of investigation, and so forth), are examined here. As a result of an analysis of that problem, a six-language terminological dictionary on the recultivation of landscapes was developed, and a ''Catalog of unified methods of analysis'' was published. Besides this, works on the classification of broken off ground, based on the data from the named catalog, being carried out by the exchange of the suppositions and notions of the international work group under the direction of Polish associates, are reaching completion. Three key problems along with some associated problems are being put forward for 1981 to 1985. These are described in the text.

  4. Sustainable Development, Moral Law and Legality in Defense of Cultural and Landscape Heritage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giampaolo Maria Cogo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Moved by Pope Frances’ urgent call to protect our common home by dealing with the environmental challenge and its human roots to achieve sustainable and integral development, the historical-legislative and institutional recognition act was drawn up on the protection and valorization of cultural-landscape-environmental heritage, matrix of the progress of civilization outlined in the fundamental principles of the Italian Constitution in the “cultural programme” focused on the relationship between cultureperson and environment-person. It recalls the action of the institutions to protect nature and the ecological-environmental balance and the activities of international organizations to safeguard nature from human actions. They are a sign of the critical issues of codification in the field of cultural, landscape and environmental heritage (2006-2009 due to a departure from natural legal right (jus envisaged as a moral law for enjoyment, compatible with a loving, responsible and prudent use, aimed at guaranteeing an integral sustainable development for future generations. In losing the natural moral law, one encounters the decisive factor in the fall of legality, with serious consequences for heritage protection and people’s growth, based on shared standards. A glimmer of hope can be discerned in the community/EU legislation to harmonize the protection and valorization of the environment according to criteria of substantive law, where the primary aims for the guarantee of future generations lead to regulatory processes anchored to the ethics of natural moral law, under the bulwark of true cooperation and good faith, in a strict justicial and sanctioning system, tempered by the use of fairness when the general interest of the common good prevails.

  5. Assessment of natural and cultural landscape capacity to proposals the ecological model of tourism development (case study for the area of the Zamagurie region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drábová-Degro Monika

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural and industrial conditions are not favourable in the uphill and mountain areas of the Zamagurie region, and tourism is often the only opportunity to create new jobs, develop the habitation areas and avoid the emigration of local inhabitants. The Walachian and Sholtys colonization has transformed the landscape and created unique significant spatial landscape elements that are traditionally utilized for agricultural purposes, and create a unique esthetical landscape preserved till the present times. This case study has been aimed at developing and applying the new quantification methods using GIS tools for evaluation of localizing, selective realization and environmental preconditions of the landscape, representing recreational (cultural services of the landscape ecological systems, based on selected indicators. To evaluate the localizing preconditions of the landscape, we referred to the landscape-ecological complex geo-databases (LEC (Thematic maps - internal ground document of ZB GIS , 2013, completed with the field survey during the period 2013−2014 and identification of secondary landscape structure elements (SLS and selected morphometric indicators. While evaluating the selected town-planning, demographical and social-economic indicators, we quantified the selective landscape preconditions of tourism development. The realization preconditions were reviewed according to communication accessibility and material-technical equipment. As for environmental preconditions, we reviewed the presence of protected territory and landscape environmental load.

  6. Development of delta professionals: the need for fundamental change in mainstream education on landscape related issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, A.M.E.

    2003-01-01

    Landscapes are under severe pressure. These landscapes are being used for several functions and interests that compete with each other for influence on and space in the countryside. The application of only a disciplinary or sectoral perspective does no longer provide us with satisfactory answers for

  7. Landscape Change in the Midwest: An Integrated Research and Development Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul H. Gobster; Robert G. Haight; Dave Shriner

    2000-01-01

    Change happens. In the realm of forest landscapes, one of the great realizations of the late 20th century was that forests in the United States and elsewhere often are not the stable systems we once thought them to be, attaining a final "climax" stage through the process of succession. Advances in forest ecology show that landscape change is the rule rather...

  8. Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

    2010-12-01

    Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

  9. VIRTUAL MUSEUMS FOR LANDSCAPE VALORIZATION AND COMMUNICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Pietroni

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Research in the domain of landscape virtual reconstructions has been mainly focused on digitization and recording inside GIS systems, or real time visualization, paying a minor attention to the development of a methodological approach for the landscape narration, combing different registers, conceptual, emotional incitements and, thus, able to arouse in the public a feeling of emotional “sensing” and self- identification. The landscape reflects also the human activities in the territory and the communities’ cultural patterns, their sense of “belonging”. In a virtual museum of landscapes, the multidisciplinary approach, the multiplication of perspectives and voices, storytelling, acquire primary importance. A Virtual Museum of landscapes should integrate both holistic and delimited visions. The holistic vision requires a diachronic approach, including both present and past phases of life. On the other side, delimited, or “monographic”, representations are useful to go deeper into specific and exemplar stories, regarding specific groups of people. Beside, the emergence of new social media enhancing cultural interactions among people induce the creation of specific social platforms for Cultural Heritage for the active participation of a large number of stakeholders. Co-creation scenarios and tools can be particularly promising. Aton is an example of front-end VR social platform in the web end, for the efficient streaming of medium/large landscape, their exploration and characterization. The Tiber Valley Virtual Museum is an example of sensorial cultural landscape. Starting from the acquisition of topographical data through integrated technologies, several multi-sensory scenarios have been created, inside which visitors can feel embodied and involved.

  10. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  11. FY1995 development of the landscape design studio; 1995 nendo jiritsu bunsan kyochogata 'keikan studio' no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-04-01

    Establish a distributed design studio called 'The Landscape Studio' for designing and analyzing landscape collaboratively under Internet and multimedia computer environment. We first proposed a concept called 'Open Designing' for design works under information environment, which is composed of three kind of openness: open data, open processes, and open discussion. Based on the concept a landscape studio has been established as a total design system towards the forthcoming network and multimedia age. In the studio, a large volume of maps, images and other data are stored in the form accessible through the Internet. Using the data of several study areas, including Omotesandou street, Block 10 of Azabu, computer simulations, design games, VRML, CAVE and many other designing support tools have been developed the studio. Furthermore, the research team joined the activities of the Angkor Wat Safeguarding Project supported by UNESCO and the Japanese government. The locations and shapes of ruins in a wide area were (measured and simulated in a 3 dimensional style. The researches of Landscape Studio were reported at several exhibitions such as 'The 2nd Exhibition on Computer Aided Architectural Design' and 'The 11th Exhibition on Architecture, City and Computer'. The multimedia systems and experiments in the studio lead the field of multimedia urban and landscape design, and the research activities have greatly contributed to the education and industry of urban design. (NEDO)

  12. Analysis of the development of land use in the Morava River floodplain, with special emphasis on the landscape matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kilianová Helena

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The results of an analysis of land use development in the Morava River floodplain (Czech Republic using GIS from 1836 to the present, are the subject of this article. The results are based on the analysis of historical maps, using the landscape matrix assessment of the Morava River floodplain. The final analyses were processed from land use maps of the floodplain at a scale of 1 : 25,000 in five time horizons. These maps were compared with the present state of landscape by GIS methods. The study area was assessed according to five geomorphological areas from the northern/higher part to the southern/lower part of floodplain. In 1836 the landscape matrix of the floodplain was composed of meadows and forests. Forest components decreased minimally but the changes are more important. The grassland area (meadows and pastures decreased but arable land, as well as settlements, increased very significantly. In the 1950s the landscape matrix was composed of a mosaic of alluvial forests, meadows and arable land. Currently, the predominant landscape matrix consists of arable land and isolated forest complexes.

  13. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

  14. Development of a safety decision-making scenario to measure worker safety in agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, G A; Keren, N; Freeman, S A; Hurburgh, C R

    2014-04-01

    Human factors play an important role in the management of occupational safety, especially in high-hazard workplaces such as commercial grain-handling facilities. Employee decision-making patterns represent an essential component of the safety system within a work environment. This research describes the process used to create a safety decision-making scenario to measure the process that grain-handling employees used to make choices in a safety-related work task. A sample of 160 employees completed safety decision-making simulations based on a hypothetical but realistic scenario in a grain-handling environment. Their choices and the information they used to make their choices were recorded. Although the employees emphasized safety information in their decision-making process, not all of their choices were safe choices. Factors influencing their choices are discussed, and implications for industry, management, and workers are shared.

  15. Navigating the Interface Between Landscape Genetics and Landscape Genomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Storfer

    2018-03-01

    ' phylogeographic history. To this end, we summarize recent simulation studies that test the power and accuracy of genome scan methods under a variety of demographic scenarios and sampling designs. We conclude with a discussion of additional considerations for future method development, and a summary of methods that show promise for landscape genomics studies but are not yet widely used.

  16. Plume dispersion in four pine thinning scenarios: development of a simple pheromone dispersion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly Peterson; Harold Thistle; Brian Lamb; Gene Allwine; Steve Edburg; Brian Strom

    2010-01-01

    A unique field campaign was conducted in 2004 to examine how changes in stand density may affect dispersion of insect pheromones in forest canopies. Over a l4-day period, 126 tracer tests were performed, and conditions ranged from an unthinned loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) canopy through a series of thinning scenarios with basal areas of32.l, 23.0, and 16.1 m2ha-l.ln...

  17. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  18. Re-evaluating the functional landscape of the cardiovascular system during development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Norio; Omae, Madoka; Sagawa, Fumihiko; Chi, Neil C; Endo, Satsuki; Kozawa, Satoshi; Sato, Thomas N

    2017-11-15

    The cardiovascular system facilitates body-wide distribution of oxygen, a vital process for the development and survival of virtually all vertebrates. However, the zebrafish, a vertebrate model organism, appears to form organs and survive mid-larval periods without a functional cardiovascular system. Despite such dispensability, it is the first organ to develop. Such enigma prompted us to hypothesize other cardiovascular functions that are important for developmental and/or physiological processes. Hence, systematic cellular ablations and functional perturbations were performed on the zebrafish cardiovascular system to gain comprehensive and body-wide understanding of such functions and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms. This approach identifies a set of organ-specific genes, each implicated for important functions. The study also unveils distinct cardiovascular mechanisms, each differentially regulating their expressions in organ-specific and oxygen-independent manners. Such mechanisms are mediated by organ-vessel interactions, circulation-dependent signals, and circulation-independent beating-heart-derived signals. A comprehensive and body-wide functional landscape of the cardiovascular system reported herein may provide clues as to why it is the first organ to develop. Furthermore, these data could serve as a resource for the study of organ development and function. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  19. Landscape Studio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Lundsgaard

    2017-01-01

    Landscape studio documents is the biography of the method 'design conversation' and contributes to the way we work with landscapes. The blog communicates renewed landscape didactics and leads to the innovation of design practices.......Landscape studio documents is the biography of the method 'design conversation' and contributes to the way we work with landscapes. The blog communicates renewed landscape didactics and leads to the innovation of design practices....

  20. A multispecies framework for landscape conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, W Scott; Donovan, Therese M

    2011-10-01

    Rapidly changing landscapes have spurred the need for quantitative methods for conservation assessment and planning that encompass large spatial extents. We devised and tested a multispecies framework for conservation planning to complement single-species assessments and ecosystem-level approaches. Our framework consisted of 4 elements: sampling to effectively estimate population parameters, measuring how human activity affects landscapes at multiple scales, analyzing the relation between landscape characteristics and individual species occurrences, and evaluating and comparing the responses of multiple species to landscape modification. We applied the approach to a community of terrestrial birds across 25,000 km(2) with a range of intensities of human development. Human modification of land cover, road density, and other elements of the landscape, measured at multiple spatial extents, had large effects on occupancy of the 67 species studied. Forest composition within 1 km of points had a strong effect on occupancy of many species and a range of negative, intermediate, and positive associations. Road density within 1 km of points, percent evergreen forest within 300 m, and distance from patch edge were also strongly associated with occupancy for many species. We used the occupancy results to group species into 11 guilds that shared patterns of association with landscape characteristics. Our multispecies approach to conservation planning allowed us to quantify the trade-offs of different scenarios of land-cover change in terms of species occupancy. Conservation Biology © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

  1. Development of integrated scenarios to attain the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy; Entwicklung von integrierten Szenarien zur Erreichung der umweltbezogenen Ziele der Nationalen Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fink, Alexander; Rammig, Hanna [ScMI AG Paderborn (Germany)

    2013-02-15

    The national sustainability strategy (NHS) shall significantly shape the direction of the sustainable development in Germany. It is aim of the project ''Development of integrated scenarios to attain the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy'' to develop different options, of how to possibly approach the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy. In a first step external scenarios were developed, which describe the national sustainability strategy. In a first step external scenarios were developed, which describe the external context for the embodiment of sustainability. In a second step, option scenarios which show alternatives for different actor groups were built for the three areas ''Leisure time, living and alimentation''. In a third step the combination of the different external scenarios and internal options has been conducted, how do the different solution areas fit to the external scenarios.

  2. Developing and testing a landscape habitat suitability model for fisher (Martes pennanti) in forests of interior northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.J. Zielinski; J. R. Dunk; J. S. Yaeger; D. W. LaPlante

    2010-01-01

    The fisher is warranted for protection under the Endangered Species Act in the western United States and, as such, it is especially important that conservation and management actions are based on sound scientific information. We developed a landscape-scale suitability model for interior northern California to predict the probability of detecting fishers and to identify...

  3. Wind born(e) landscapes: the role of wind erosion in agricultural land management and nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Riksen, M.J.P.M.

    2006-01-01

    Wind has played an important role in the geological development of the north-western Europe. Various aeolian deposits such as inland dunes, river dunes, cover sands, drift sands and coastal dunes, form the base of large areas in our present landscape. The role of wind erosion in today's north-west

  4. Governing Portable Conservation and Development Landscapes: Reconsidering Evidence in the Context of the Mbaracayú Biosphere Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgert, Laureen

    2014-01-01

    Conservation-with-development landscapes, such as UNESCO's Man and Biosphere Reserves, differentiate between areas of "nature" and "society". In Paraguay's Mbaracayú Biosphere Reserve, as elsewhere, this model has been used to support governance that focuses on conservation in the "core area" and sustainable…

  5. Evaluating governance for sustainable development - Insights from experiences in the Dutch fen landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    den Uyl, Roos M; Driessen, Peter P J

    2015-11-01

    Prominent strands of discussion in the literature on governance for sustainable development debate how change can be induced to enhance sustainability, and how to evaluate the interventions aimed at prompting such change. Strikingly, there are few contributions about how prominent ideas of inducing change deal with multiple governance criteria for pursuing sustainable development. Moreover, the way ideas about inducing change relate to criteria of governance for sustainable development is not yet studied in an empirical context. This paper therefore comparatively analyses how three prominent modes of sustainable development governance - adaptive management, transition management and payments for environmental services - relate to a set of five prominent criteria reported in the literature, namely: equity, democracy, legitimacy, the handling of scale issues and the handling of uncertainty issues. It finds that the academic debates on these three modes address these criteria with varying attention and rather fragmented, while in the empirical setting of the Dutch fen landscape several aspects relating to the studied criteria were present and substantially influenced the functioning of the three modes of sustainable development. Together, the analysis of the literature debate and the empirical data are able to show that a narrow evaluation perspective may fail to diagnose and capture relevant struggles and complexities coming along with governance for sustainable development relevant issues. The study shows that in order to advance our understanding of governance for sustainable development, it is indeed important to include multiple criteria in studying these modes. Moreover, the study shows the importance of including empirical experiences which manifest when different modes for sustainable development are applied in real-world settings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris A. Geldenhuys

    2011-02-01

    Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned. Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world. Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’. Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as a change navigation based, scenario planning process (CNBSPP. Practical/managerial implications: CNBSPP is available for use by organisations wishing to apply a strategic planning tool that fits within a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership approach. Contribution/value add: The research makes a unique contribution to the current level of knowledge by integrating two disciplines

  7. Combining integrated models and participatory methods to quantify water and agricultural trade-offs linked to different rural development scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, David; Willaarts, Barbara; García, Ángel de Miguel; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the water and agricultural tradeoffs linked to three different rural development scenarios in the Cega-Eresma-Adaja basin (CEA) in Central Spain. Agriculture is a key socioeconomic activity in CEA, and nearly 44% of the basin is devoted to croplands and pastures. Irrigated agriculture accounts for 12% of the cropland area and is currently using over 84% of available water resources. To define the three scenarios for CEA, we conducted a workshop with local stakeholders to infer how contrasting evolutions of EU agricultural, water and environmental policies could affect the local land use and agricultural management using participatory mapping techniques. The three scenarios reflect 1) a business as usual (BAU) rural development; 2) a land sharing strategy (LSH); and 3) a land sparing (LSP) situation. The integrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the changes in water use (hm^3/year) and agricultural productivity (ton/year) under each scenario. To account for changes in agricultural land use and management, the model integrates a large set of agricultural patterns obtained from combining high resolution remote sensing images (20m x 20m) for the years 2011-2015, agricultural productivity from survey by municipality and land use information obtained from the national map SIOSE2011 (1:50.000). Model calibration and sensitivity analysis were performed using SWAT-CUP/SUFI2 The period of the years 2005 to 2008 were used for parameter calibration and validation period extending between 2009 and 2014. The predicted daily streamflow presents a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a NS coefficient of 0.81. The preliminary results reveal that under a BAU and a LSP scenario agricultural production and water demand will increase significantly (>25%) despite the improvements in water use efficiency and agricultural productivity. Under these scenarios, allocated water is likely to exceed the natural renewable water resources compromising the

  8. Protein Expression Landscape of Mouse Embryos during Pre-implantation Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yawei Gao

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Pre-implantation embryo development is an intricate and precisely regulated process orchestrated by maternally inherited proteins and newly synthesized proteins following zygotic genome activation. Although genomic and transcriptomic studies have enriched our understanding of the genetic programs underlying this process, the protein expression landscape remains unexplored. Using quantitative mass spectrometry, we identified nearly 5,000 proteins from 8,000 mouse embryos of each stage (zygote, 2-cell, 4-cell, 8-cell, morula, and blastocyst. We found that protein expression in zygotes, morulas, and blastocysts is distinct from 2- to 8-cell embryos. Analysis of protein phosphorylation identified critical kinases and signal transduction pathways. We highlight key factors and their important roles in embryo development. Combined analysis of transcriptomic and proteomic data reveals coordinated control of RNA degradation, transcription, and translation and identifies previously undefined exon-junction-derived peptides. Our study provides an invaluable resource for further mechanistic studies and suggests core factors regulating pre-implantation embryo development.

  9. Threshold responses of forest birds to landscape changes around exurban development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Suarez-Rubio

    Full Text Available Low-density residential development (i.e., exurban development is often embedded within a matrix of protected areas and natural amenities, raising concern about its ecological consequences. Forest-dependent species are particularly susceptible to human settlement even at low housing densities typical of exurban areas. However, few studies have examined the response of forest birds to this increasingly common form of land conversion. The aim of this study was to assess whether, how, and at what scale forest birds respond to changes in habitat due to exurban growth. We evaluated changes in habitat composition (amount and configuration (arrangement for forest and forest-edge species around North America Breeding Bird Survey (BBS stops between 1986 and 2009. We used Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis to detect change points in species occurrence at two spatial extents (400-m and 1-km radius buffer. Our results show that exurban development reduced forest cover and increased habitat fragmentation around BBS stops. Forest birds responded nonlinearly to most measures of habitat loss and fragmentation at both the local and landscape extents. However, the strength and even direction of the response changed with the extent for several of the metrics. The majority of forest birds' responses could be predicted by their habitat preferences indicating that management practices in exurban areas might target the maintenance of forested habitats, for example through easements or more focused management for birds within existing or new protected areas.

  10. Developing sustainable management scenarios for Saharan and Arabian aquifer systems using GRACE data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M.; Sultan, M.; Save, H.

    2016-12-01

    Three sources (CSR and JPL Mascons solutions; CSR spherical harmonic fields) of monthly (04/2002 to 03/2016) GRACE-derived TWS estimates were used to develop sustainable utilization scenarios for Saharan and Arabian aquifer systems. These aquifer systems include the Saq Aquifer System in Saudi Arabia (SAS; area: 0.46×106 km2), Nubian Aquifer System in Egypt (NAS; area: 0.66×106 km2), and the Northwestern Saharan Aquifer System in Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya (NWSAS; area: 1.2×106 km2). Piecewise trend analysis of GRACE-derived TWS time series over SAS showed steady-state TWS conditions (0.47 mm/yr; 0.22 km3/yr) during 2002-2006 (Stage I), significant TWS depletion (-13.36 mm/yr; -6.15 km3/yr) during 2006-2012 (Stage II), and signs of replenishment (-3.00 mm/yr; -1.60 km3/yr) during 2012-2016 (Stage III). The pronounced depletion in Stage II is largely related to excessive groundwater extraction mainly for irrigation purposes (2006: irrigated areas/extraction: 502,338 hectare/8.4 km3/yr) compared to those reported in Stage III (2015: irrigated areas/extraction: 326,719 hectare/7.9 km3/yr). Sustainable utilization of SAS waters can be achieved if extraction is reduced to 7.7 km3/yr. The NWSAS showed steady-state conditions (0.02 mm/yr; 0.02 km3/yr) during the 2002-2006 period followed by significant TWS depletions (-4.90 mm/yr; -5.85 km3/yr) due to progressive increase in groundwater extraction (1970: 0.6 km3/yr; 2000: 2.5 km3/yr; 2010: 3 km3/yr). Sustainable utilization of the NWSAS can be achieved if extraction is reduced to 2.5 km3/yr. Trend analysis of GRACE-derived TWS time series over NAS reveals a good correspondence with fluctuations in Lake Nasser Levels (LNL) (2002-2007: LNL/TWS: 177 m/-2.72 mm/yr; 2008-2012: LNL/TWS: 175 m/-7.35 mm/yr; 2013-2016: LNL/TWS: 179 m/11.35 mm/yr) suggesting a causal effect. Given that the average annual (04/2002 to 03/2016) depletion in TWS is -3.24 mm/yr (-2.13 km3/yr), and the average annual extraction is 2.50 km3/yr, we

  11. Development of Scientific Simulation 3D Full Wave ICRF Code for Stellarators and Heating/CD Scenarios Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vdovin V.L.

    2005-08-15

    In this report we describe theory and 3D full wave code description for the wave excitation, propagation and absorption in 3-dimensional (3D) stellarator equilibrium high beta plasma in ion cyclotron frequency range (ICRF). This theory forms a basis for a 3D code creation, urgently needed for the ICRF heating scenarios development for the operated LHD, constructed W7-X, NCSX and projected CSX3 stellarators, as well for re evaluation of ICRF scenarios in operated tokamaks and in the ITER . The theory solves the 3D Maxwell-Vlasov antenna-plasma-conducting shell boundary value problem in the non-orthogonal flux coordinates ({Psi}, {theta}, {var_phi}), {Psi} being magnetic flux function, {theta} and {var_phi} being the poloidal and toroidal angles, respectively. All basic physics, like wave refraction, reflection and diffraction are self consistently included, along with the fundamental ion and ion minority cyclotron resonances, two ion hybrid resonance, electron Landau and TTMP absorption. Antenna reactive impedance and loading resistance are also calculated and urgently needed for an antenna -generator matching. This is accomplished in a real confining magnetic field being varying in a plasma major radius direction, in toroidal and poloidal directions, through making use of the hot dense plasma wave induced currents with account to the finite Larmor radius effects. We expand the solution in Fourier series over the toroidal ({var_phi}) and poloidal ({theta}) angles and solve resulting ordinary differential equations in a radial like {Psi}-coordinate by finite difference method. The constructed discretization scheme is divergent-free one, thus retaining the basic properties of original equations. The Fourier expansion over the angle coordinates has given to us the possibility to correctly construct the ''parallel'' wave number k{sub //}, and thereby to correctly describe the ICRF waves absorption by a hot plasma. The toroidal harmonics are tightly

  12. A methodology for scenario development based on understanding of long-term evolution of geological disposal systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Ebashi, Takeshi; Ueda, Hiroyoshi; Koyama, Toshihiro; Shiratsuchi, Hiroshi; Yashio, Shoko; Kawamura, Hideki

    2012-01-01

    We have developed a 'hybrid' scenario development method by combining bottom-up and top-down approaches and applied for the case of geological disposal of high-level waste. This approach provides a top-down perspective, by introducing a concept of safety functions for different periods and 'storyboards', which depict repository evolution with time on a range of spatial scales, and a bottom-up perspective, by identifying relationship between processes related to radionuclide migration and safety functions based on feature, event and process (FEP) management. Based on a trial study, we have specified work descriptions for each step of the hybrid scenario development methodology and confirmed that the storyboard provides a baseline and holistic overview for the FEP management and a common platform to involve close interaction with experts in various disciplines to understand the crossover phenomenological processes. We also confirmed that there is no conflict between the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach and the hybrid scenario development work frame fulfils the specified requirements for traceability, comprehensiveness, ease of understanding, integration of multidisciplinary knowledge and applicability to a staged approach to siting. (author)

  13. Perspectives on the Salience and Magnitude of Dam Impacts for Hydro Development Scenarios in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desiree Tullos

    2010-06-01

    Survey results indicate differences in the perceived salience and magnitude of impacts across both expert groups and dam scenarios. Furthermore, surveys indicate that stakeholder perceptions changed as the information provided regarding dam impacts became more specific, suggesting that stakeholder evaluation may be influenced by quality of information. Finally, qualitative comments from the survey reflect some of the challenges of interdisciplinary dam assessment, including cross-disciplinary cooperation, data standardisation and weighting, and the distribution and potential mitigation of impacts. Given the complexity of data and perceptions around dam impacts, decision-support tools that integrate the objective magnitude and perceived salience of impacts are required urgently.

  14. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  15. Improving the policy of public procurements for development of science cities: agent-oriented modeling and scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir I. Abramov

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to assess the impact of policy change scenarios in the sphere of public procurements on the development of science cities. Methods simulation modeling agentoriented modeling. Results depressive trends of singleindustry townsrsquo development are one of the key problems in the development of Russia. At the same time the procedure for identifying suppliers proposed by the system of public procurements does not imply mechanisms that would favor the development of science cities. The article analyzes the approaches to estimate the effectiveness of the public procurements system. It is determined that the agentoriented approach is one of the most promising methods of public procurements management. Through simulation modeling in particular agentoriented approach the article presents the results of scenario experiments. It is established that public procurements can act not only as an instrument of effective expenditure of budgetary funds but also as a mechanism of economic development of territories. Although the presented experiments showed a decrease in the level of savings as a result of competitive procedures additionalnbsp socioeconomic effects were achieved due to the localization of procurements participants in the science citiesrsquo territory. Among other things the scenarios suggest reduction of transportation costs and consequently the traffic flow between Moscow and science cities which would help to reduce the load on the transport networks of megacities. Scientific novelty for the first time it was shown that the tool of public procurements can serve for stimulation and maintenance of the development of science cities and singleindustry towns and become a key factor in their development. The agentoriented model of the public procurements system functioning by the example of Zhukovskiy science city was developed which allows quantitative estimation of the consequences of introducing various mechanisms for improving the

  16. Change in the forested and developed landscape of the Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada, USA, 1940-2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raumann, C.G.; Cablk, Mary E.

    2008-01-01

    The current ecological state of the Lake Tahoe basin has been shaped by significant landscape-altering human activity and management practices since the mid-1850s; first through widespread timber harvesting from the 1850s to 1920s followed by urban development from the 1950s to the present. Consequences of landscape change, both from development and forest management practices including fire suppression, have prompted rising levels of concern for the ecological integrity of the region. The impacts from these activities include decreased water quality, degraded biotic communities, and increased fire hazard. To establish an understanding of the Lake Tahoe basin's landscape change in the context of forest management and development we mapped, quantified, and described the spatial and temporal distribution and variability of historical changes in land use and land cover in the southern Lake Tahoe basin (279 km2) from 1940 to 2002. Our assessment relied on post-classification change detection of multi-temporal land-use/cover and impervious-surface-area data that were derived through manual interpretation, image processing, and GIS data integration for four dates of imagery: 1940, 1969, 1987, and 2002. The most significant land conversion during the 62-year study period was an increase in developed lands with a corresponding decrease in forests, wetlands, and shrublands. Forest stand densities increased throughout the 62-year study period, and modern thinning efforts resulted in localized stand density decreases in the latter part of the study period. Additionally forests were gained from succession, and towards the end of the study period extensive tree mortality occurred. The highest rates of change occurred between 1940 and 1969, corresponding with dramatic development, then rates declined through 2002 for all observed landscape changes except forest density decrease and tree mortality. Causes of landscape change included regional population growth, tourism demands

  17. Spatial modeling of personalized exposure dynamics: the case of pesticide use in small-scale agricultural production landscapes of the developing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binder Claudia R

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pesticide poisoning is a global health issue with the largest impacts in the developing countries where residential and small-scale agricultural areas are often integrated and pesticides sprayed manually. To reduce health risks from pesticide exposure approaches for personalized exposure assessment (PEA are needed. We present a conceptual framework to develop a spatial individual-based model (IBM prototype for assessing potential exposure of farm-workers conducting small-scale agricultural production, which accounts for a considerable portion of global food crop production. Our approach accounts for dynamics in the contaminant distributions in the environment, as well as patterns of movement and activities performed on an individual level under different safety scenarios. We demonstrate a first prototype using data from a study area in a rural part of Colombia, South America. Results Different safety scenarios of PEA were run by including weighting schemes for activities performed under different safety conditions. We examined the sensitivity of individual exposure estimates to varying patterns of pesticide application and varying individual patterns of movement. This resulted in a considerable variation in estimates of magnitude, frequency and duration of exposure over the model runs for each individual as well as between individuals. These findings indicate the influence of patterns of pesticide application, individual spatial patterns of movement as well as safety conditions on personalized exposure in the agricultural production landscape that is the focus of our research. Conclusion This approach represents a conceptual framework for developing individual based models to carry out PEA in small-scale agricultural settings in the developing world based on individual patterns of movement, safety conditions, and dynamic contaminant distributions. The results of our analysis indicate our prototype model is sufficiently

  18. Scenario analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic development on phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Chen, Weiping; Liao, Yuehua; Luo, Yueping

    2017-12-01

    Socioeconomic development in lake watersheds is closely related with lake nutrient pollution. As the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake has been experiencing an increase in nutrient loading and a growing risk of eutrophication. This study aimed to reveal the likely impacts of the socioeconomic development of the Dongting Lake watershed on the phosphorous pollution in the lake. We estimated the contributions from different sources and sub-watersheds to the total phosphorous (TP) export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed under two most likely socioeconomic development scenarios. Moreover, we predicted the likely permissible and actual TP loadings to the Dongting Lake. Under both two scenarios, three secondary sub-watersheds-the upper and lower reaches of the Xiang River watershed and the Dongting Lake Area-are expected to dominate the contribution to the TP export from the Dongting Lake watershed in 2020. Three primary sub-watersheds-the Dongting Lake Area, the Xiang River, and the Yuan River watersheds-are predicted to be the major contributors to the TP loading from the entire watershed. The two scenarios are expected to have a slight difference in TP export and lake TP loading. Livestock husbandry is expected to be the predominant anthropogenic TP source in each of the sub-watersheds under both scenarios. Compared to 2010, permissible TP loading is not expected to increase but actual TP loading is predicted to grow significantly in 2020. Our study provides methodologies to identify the key sources and regions of lake nutrient loading from watersheds with complex socioeconomic context, and to reveal the potential influences of socioeconomic development on nutrient pollution in lake watersheds.

  19. The Importance of Animal Source Foods for Nutrient Sufficiency in the Developing World: The Zambia Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiying; Goldsmith, Peter D; Winter-Nelson, Alex

    2016-05-05

    There have been successful interventions fortifying staple foods to mobilize micronutrients as well as agricultural efforts to raise yields of staple foods to increase food availability. Zambia serves as an interesting case study because since 1961 there has been a notable decline in the availability of animal source foods (ASFs) and pulses and a significant increase in the supply of cassava and vegetable oils. The shift in food availability was partly attributed to the agricultural success in high-yielding and drought-resistant varieties that made cassava and oil crops more affordable and readily available. In this research, we explore another policy strategy that involves ASF as a mechanism to help remedy micronutrient inadequacies in a population. A scenario modeling analysis compares the changes in the nutrient profile of the Zambian diet through adding either staple plant source foods (PSFs) or ASFs. The scenarios under study involve the addition of (1) 18 fl oz of whole cow's milk; (2) 60 g of beef, 30 g of chicken, and 5 g of beef liver; (3) milk plus meat; or (4) 83 g of maize flour, 123 g of cassava, and other staple PSF, that is, isocaloric to the "milk + meat" group. The findings alert program planners and policy makers to the value of increasing the availability, accessibility, and utilization of ASF to simultaneously address multiple nutrient deficiencies, as well as the nutrition challenges that remain when expanding the availability of plant-based staples. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  1. Landscape metrics application in ecological and visual landscape assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavrilović Suzana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of landscape-ecological approach application in spatial planning provides exact theoretical and empirical evidence for monitoring ecological consequences of natural and/or anthropogenic factors, particularly changes in spatial structures caused by them. Landscape pattern which feature diverse landscape values is the holder of the unique landscape character at different spatial levels and represents a perceptual domain for its users. Using the landscape metrics, the parameters of landscape composition and configuration are mathematical algorithms that quantify the specific spatial characteristics used for interpretation of landscape features and processes (physical and ecological aspect, as well as forms (visual aspect and the meaning (cognitive aspect of the landscape. Landscape metrics has been applied mostly in the ecological and biodiversity assessments as well as in the determination of the level of structural change of landscape, but more and more applied in the assessment of the visual character of the landscape. Based on a review of relevant literature, the aim of this work is to show the main trends of landscape metrics within the aspect of ecological and visual assessments. The research methodology is based on the analysis, classification and systematization of the research studies published from 2000 to 2016, where the landscape metrics is applied: (1 the analysis of landscape pattern and its changes, (2 the analysis of biodiversity and habitat function and (3 a visual landscape assessment. By selecting representative metric parameters for the landscape composition and configuration, for each category is formed the basis for further landscape metrics research and application for the integrated ecological and visual assessment of the landscape values. Contemporary conceptualization of the landscape is seen holistically, and the future research should be directed towards the development of integrated landscape assessment

  2. Resource abundance and distribution drive bee visitation within developing tropical urban landscapes

    OpenAIRE

    Wojcik, Victoria

    2011-01-01

    Urban landscapes include a mix of biotic and anthropogenic elements that can interact with and influence species occurrence and behaviour. In order to outline the drivers of bee (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) occurrence in tropical urban landscapes, foraging patterns and community characteristics were examined at a common and broadly attractive food resource, Tecoma stans (Bignoniaceae). Bee visitation was monitored at 120 individual resources in three cities from June 2007 to March 2009. Resource c...

  3. Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frazzoli, Chiara; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Dragone, Roberto; Mantovani, Alberto

    2010-01-01

    E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

  4. Developing strategies to initialize landscape-scale vegetation maps from FIA data to enhance resolution of individual species-size cohort representation in the landscape disturbance model SIMPPLLE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob John Muller

    2014-01-01

    The ability of forest resource managers to understand and anticipate landscape-scale change in composition and structure relies upon an adequate characterization of the current forest composition and structure of various patches (or stands), along with the capacity of forest landscape models (FLMs) to predict patterns of growth, succession, and disturbance at multiple...

  5. Dose modelling for 'dirty bomb' scenarios - an ARGOS DSS feature under development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Kasper Grann; Mikkelsen, Torben; Astrup, Poul

    number of people could become directly affected. Current versions of European decision support systems are inapplicable in this context, as they do not take into account the specific characteristics of ’dirty bomb’ scenarios, with respect to radionuclides (dose conversion factors), initial......The world of today is not only facing the risk of accidents (e.g., in nuclear facilities, as considered in the EURANOS project). Also other types of emergencies, notably involving radiological terrorism, pose a threat. Acts of terror would be most likely to take place in a city, where the greatest...... physicochemical forms, blast contaminant transformations, plume height and propagation, deposition velocities, post-deposition migration and clearance, as well as countermeasure effectiveness. This problem is being addressed for a new version of the ARGOS decision support system....

  6. Rates of surface lowering and landscape development in southern South Africa: a cosmogenic view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Janet; Vanacker, Veerle; Lang, Andreas; Hodgson, David

    2016-04-01

    The landscape of southern South Africa is characterised by large-scale erosion surfaces, including extensive pediments and multiple strath terraces, which document discordant river evolution through resistant quarzitic lithologies of the Cape Fold Belt (CFB). The timing and rate of erosion is poorly constrained. New cosmogenic ages from surfaces in South Africa are presented using in situ produced 10Be. Strath terraces in deeply incised rivers at two sites within the CFB indicate slow rates of erosion (1.54 - 11.79 m/Ma), which are some of the lowest rates recorded globally. Four pediment surfaces and a depth profile of the thickest pediment were also dated, and the results indicate that there are low rates of surface lowering on the pediments (0.44 - 1.24 m/Ma). The pediments are long-lived features (minimum exposure ages of 0.47 - 1.09 Ma), and are now deeply dissected. Given the minimum exposure ages, calculated river incision rates (42- 203 m/Ma) suggest that after a long period of geomorphic stability during pediment formation there was a discrete phase of increased geomorphic activity. The calculated minimum exposure ages are considered dubious because: 1) known rates of surrounding river incision (published and ours); 2) the climate conditions and time necessary for ferricrete formation on the pediment surfaces and; 3) the deeply incised catchments in the CFB on which the pediments sit, which all point to the pediments being much older. The pediments are fossilised remnants of a much larger geomorphic surface that formed after the main phase of exhumation in southern Africa. They form a store of sediment that currently sit above the surrounding rivers that have some of the lowest erosion rates in the world. These results indicate that steep topography can prevail even in areas of low erosion and tectonic quiescence, and that whilst cosmogenic dating of landscapes is an exciting development in earth sciences, care is needed especially in ancient settings. We

  7. A 'must-go path' scenario for sustainable development and the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hae-Yong; Kim, Young-In; Lee, Yong-Bum; Ha, Kwi-Seok; Won, Byung-Chool; Lee, Dong-Uk; Hahn, Dohee

    2010-01-01

    An increase in the world population has accelerated the consumption of fossil fuels and deepened the pollution of global environment. As a result of these human activities, it is now difficult to clearly guarantee the sustainable future of humankind. An intuitional 'must-go path' scenario for the sustainable development of human civilization is proposed by extrapolating the human historical data over 30 years between 1970 and 2000. One of the most important parameters in order to realize the 'must-go path' scenario is the sustainability of energy without further pollution. In some countries an expanded use of nuclear energy is advantageous to increase sustainability, but fast reactor technology and closed fuel cycle have to be introduced to make it sustainable. In other countries, the development of cost-effective renewable energy, and the clean use of coal and oil are urgently needed to reduce pollution. The effect of fast nuclear reactor technology on sustainability as an option for near-term energy source is detailed in this paper. More cooperation between countries and worldwide collaboration coordinated by international organizations are essential to make the 'must-go path' scenario real in the upcoming 20 or 30 years.

  8. Homogeneous groups of plants, development scenarios, and basic configurations on the cogeneration systems optimization from the alcohol sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Walter, A.C. da; Bajay, S.V.; Carrillo, J.L.L.

    1990-01-01

    The evaluation of introducing or diffusing new technologies at a macro economic level using micro economic information can be carried out through the careful selection of a small number of homogeneous groups of plants from the point of view of the main technical parameters being considered. In this paper this concept is applied to the study of cogeneration in sugar and alcohol producing plants. The statistical techniques of Cluster Analysis, regressions and mean value testing are used. Basic cogeneration plant designs are proposed for alternatives development scenarios for this industrial branch. These scenarios are based upon differing assumptions about the expansion of alcohol market, use of surplus sugar cane bagasse as saleable commodity, as a fuel or raw material, and price expectations for the sale of surplus power from the cogeneration plants to the local grid. (author)

  9. Landscape Ecological Analysis and Assessment in an Urbanising Environment - forest birds as biodiversity indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Mörtberg, Ulla

    2004-01-01

    To achieve a sustainable development, impacts onbiodiversity of urbanisation, infrastructure, land use changesand other developments must be considered on a landscape andregional scale. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptualframework for the assessment of consequences of long-termdevelopment processes like urbanisation on biodiversity on alandscape scale, and for evaluating the impacts of alternativeplanning scenarios. The aim of this study was to explore theeffects of habitat quality, qu...

  10. Contesting authority: China and the new landscape of power sector governance in the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannam, Phillip Matthew

    development sovereignty among recipients, it can cause backsliding on safeguards and rules among established donors with consequences for power sector outcomes, making fragile movement away from carbon-intensive development even more tenuous. By characterizing this new and uncertain landscape of power sector governance, the thesis contributes to theorization on discord in international governance and to policy development for mitigating climate change.

  11. The concept for development of the research network for the measurements of modern tectonic movements in Ksiaz Landscape Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damian Kasza

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the concept for the development of research network for measurements of effects related to modern tectonic activity in the area of Ksiaz Landscape Park. The first evidences for the existence of displacements on the surfaces of discontinuity with event characteristic and the instruments used in the study were described. The way and shape of development of Ksiaz geodynamic polygon were characterized as well as the methodology and purpose of observations.

  12. Spectral-analysis-based extraction of land disturbances arising from oil and gas development in diverse landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Lantz, Nicholas; Guindon, Bert; Jiao, Xianfen

    2017-01-01

    Accurate and frequent monitoring of land surface changes arising from oil and gas exploration and extraction is a key requirement for the responsible and sustainable development of these resources. Petroleum deposits typically extend over large geographic regions but much of the infrastructure required for oil and gas recovery takes the form of numerous small-scale features (e.g., well sites, access roads, etc.) scattered over the landscape. Increasing exploitation of oil and gas deposits will increase the presence of these disturbances in heavily populated regions. An object-based approach is proposed to utilize RapidEye satellite imagery to delineate well sites and related access roads in diverse complex landscapes, where land surface changes also arise from other human activities, such as forest logging and agriculture. A simplified object-based change vector approach, adaptable to operational use, is introduced to identify the disturbances on land based on red-green spectral response and spatial attributes of candidate object size and proximity to roads. Testing of the techniques has been undertaken with RapidEye multitemporal imagery in two test sites located at Alberta, Canada: one was a predominant natural forest landscape and the other landscape dominated by intensive agricultural activities. Accuracies of 84% and 73%, respectively, have been achieved for the identification of well site and access road infrastructure of the two sites based on fully automated processing. Limited manual relabeling of selected image segments can improve these accuracies to 95%.

  13. Drivers for differences in dairy farmers perceptions of farm development strategies in an area with nature and landscape as protected public goods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Methorst, R.; Roep, D.; Verhees, F.; Verstegen, Jos

    2016-01-01

    Nature and landscape are increasingly appreciated as public goods and community assets in need of protection. Policy schemes aiming to protect vulnerable nature and landscape assets affect options for farm development and thus the opportunities for farm income strategies. Farmers as small business

  14. Soil temperature of peatland landscapes as a factor in the development of exogenous processes of biogenic relief formation in engineering development of territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korkin, S.; Talyneva, O.; Kail, E.

    2018-03-01

    In the presented work we consider mire landscapes in the context of temperature monitoring. The mire landscapes in engineering development of the territory are very sensitive to anthropogenic impact that leads to a change in surface conditions, changes in natural succession and, as a rule, to changes in soil temperature and properties, which in turn may develop a complex of hostile geodynamic processes. For this study we used recording systems for field measurement of peat and subsoil temperatures. The measurements were made in two key areas: the territory of the north-taiga landscapes of Western Siberia (the Siberian Ridges), and the territory of the middle-taiga landscapes of Western Siberia (the Ob middle-river lowland). The paper analyses the data obtained from five observation sites (3, 5, 5a, 6 and 8) referred to hydromorphic landscapes. For the territory of the Siberian Ridges the 5-year average soil temperature was 3°C. For the Ob middle-river lowland the 6-year average soil temperature was 4.2°C. The annual soil temperature in the period 2015-2016 for Site 5a (man-disturbed area) was 8.3°C at all depths, which is 3.8°C higher than in a natural bog (Site 5 was a control area).

  15. Journal Article: Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

    2007-04-01

    Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers’ perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that the professional development experience was positive, although one concern expressed by teachers was their lack of understanding of the scientists’ vocabulary. Using scientists and real-world scenarios was shown to be an effective strategy for encouraging middle school teachers to teach science as a process and help them strengthen their science content understanding.

  16. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K. Costanza

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  17. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  18. Results of using the NSTX-U Plasma Control System for scenario development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, M. D.; Battaglia, D. J.; Gates, D. A.; Gerhardt, S.; Menard, J.; Mueller, D.; Myers, C. E.; Ferron, J.; Sabbagh, S.; NSTX-U Team

    2016-10-01

    To best use the new capabilities of NSTX-U (e.g., higher toroidal field and additional, more distributed heating and current drive sources) and to achieve the operational goals of the program, major upgrades to the Plasma Control System have been made. These include improvements to vertical control, real-time equilibrium reconstruction, and plasma boundary shape control and the addition of flexible algorithms for beam modulation and gas injection to control the upgraded actuators in real-time, enabling their use in algorithms for stored energy and profile control. Control system commissioning activities have so far focused on vertical position and shape control. The upgraded controllers have been used to explore the vertical stability limits in inner wall limited and diverted discharges, and control of X-point and strike point locations has been demonstrated and is routinely used. A method for controlling the mid-plane inner gap, a challenge for STs, has also been added to improve reproducible control of diverted discharges. A supervisory shutdown handling algorithm has also been commissioned to ramp the plasma down and safely turn off actuators after an event such as loss of vertical control. Use of the upgrades has contributed to achieving 1MA, 0.65T scenarios with greater than 1s pulse length. Work supported by U.S. D.O.E. Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466.

  19. Developing Renewable Energy: Comparative Scenarios and Public Policy Perspectives from some Latin American Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Cecilia Lardizabal

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The energy matrix of Latin American and the Caribbean countries has one of the largest renewable energy components when compared to other regions of the world. Nonetheless, by 2009 nearly three-quarters of its structure corresponded to fossil fuels, with most of the countries being net importers of these fuels. This situation marks the region´s dependence on the effects of changes in energy commodities. Therefore, the opportunity lies in higher use of renewable energy sources that contribute to the country´s energy security and represent significant environmental benefits. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of current energy scenarios of six Latin American countries (Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua, Brazil, Ecuador and Chile in order to evaluate the policies, programs and strategies implemented in the search for greater participation of renewable energy. Considering the importance of the water-energy nexus that could serve to promote renewables under conditions of water scarcity, a qualitative data comparison was accomplished, considering energy consumption, CO2 emissions, GDP and water withdrawals per country. The authors conclude that, despite technological and financial constraints, all the involved countries are moving towards the substitution of a fossil fuel based matrix to a renewable one. This process could be seen as a result of clear policies and strategies that have been set, which include (but are not limited to price regulations setting, preferential prices to electricity generated through renewable energy technologies and incentives formulated to encourage the production of biofuels.

  20. Exploring scenarios of light pollution from coastal development reaching sea turtle nesting beaches near Cabo Pulmo, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory M. Verutes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available New coastal development may offer economic benefits to resort builders and even local communities, but these projects can also impact local ecosystems, key wildlife, and the draw for tourists. We explore how light from Cabo Cortés, a proposed coastal development in Baja California Sur, Mexico, may alter natural light cues used by sea turtle hatchlings. We adapt a viewshed approach to model exterior light originating from the resort under plausible zoning scenarios. This spatially explicit information allows stakeholders to evaluate the likely impact of alternative development options. Our model suggests that direct light’s ability to reach sea turtle nesting beaches varies greatly by source location and height—with some plausible development scenarios leading to significantly less light pollution than others. Our light pollution maps can enhance decision-making, offering clear guidance on where to avoid elevated lamps or when to recommend lighting restrictions. Communities can use this information to participate in development planning to mitigate ecological, aesthetic and economic impacts from artificial lighting. Though tested in Mexico, our approach and free, open-source software can be applied in other places around the world to better understand and manage the threats of light pollution to sea turtles. Keywords: Artificial light, Viewshed analysis, Sea turtle conservation, Coastal resort management, InVEST

  1. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  2. Importance of Intelligence for Strategic Scenario Building: The Information Section Role in Research and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minamizaki, Noriko

    2017-01-01

    Product development of Japanese companies has changed greatly from the post-war revival period, when it was promoted mainly to provide low-cost, high-quality products. In recent years, it has become necessary to develop products and services that correspond to social issues. Research and development has shifted from a technological basis to a…

  3. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  4. Start-up scenario of compact tori based on REB-injection developed in SPAC-group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikuta, K.

    1981-01-01

    Quasi-static start-up of compact tori without toroidal field coil is reviewed thoroughly in a proposal of the S-1 spheromak. During the formation phase we should note that the rapid heat loss from the plasma will give a bad effect for the generation of the confinement configuration. In the case of fast start-up of the configuration plasma can safely pass over the dangerous state of the instability toward the desirable stable state with a bonus of producing hot plasma. By this reason it is intended to discuss a fast start-up scenario of the compact tori based on REB injection developed in SPAC group

  5. Maximum forseeable accident analysis made by a sodium leak on the BN-800 primary circuit and the more constraining accident development scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanenko, V.N.; Zybin, V.A.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper the different ways of development for the BN-800 maximum credible accident in case of loss and fire of primary sodium are examined. The more constraining scenario is presented. During the scenario analysis the accidental release of radioactive materials in the environment has been studied. These releases are below the authorized values [fr

  6. Developing Optimal Procedure of Emergency Outside Cooling Water Injection for APR1400 Extended SBO Scenario Using MARS Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Jong Rok; Oh, Seung Jong [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In this study, we examined optimum operator actions to mitigate extended SBO using MARS code. Particularly, this paper focuses on analyzing outside core cooling water injection scenario, and aimed to develop optimal extended SBO procedure. Supplying outside emergency cooling water is the key feature of flexible strategy in extended SBO situation. An optimum strategy to maintain core cooling is developed for typical extended SBO. MARS APR1400 best estimate model was used to find optimal procedure. Also RCP seal leakage effect was considered importantly. Recent Fukushima accident shows the importance of mitigation capability against extended SBO scenarios. In Korea, all nuclear power plants incorporated various measures against Fukushima-like events. For APR1400 NPP, outside connectors are installed to inject cooling water using fire trucks or portable pumps. Using these connectors, outside cooling water can be provided to reactor, steam generators (SG), containment spray system, and spent fuel pool. In U. S., similar approach is chosen to provide a diverse and flexible means to prevent fuel damage (core and SFP) in external event conditions resulting in extended loss of AC power and loss of ultimate heat sink. Hence, hardware necessary to cope with extended SBO is already available for APR1400. However, considering the complex and stressful condition encountered by operators during extended SBO, it is important to develop guidelines/procedures to best cope with the event.

  7. Late Quaternary landscape development at the margin of the Pomeranian phase (MIS 2) near Lake Wygonin (Northern Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Florian; Schneider, Anna; Nicolay, Alexander; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Kordowski, Jarosław; Noryskiewicz, Agnieszka M.; Tyszkowski, Sebastian; Raab, Alexandra; Raab, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    In Central Europe, Late Quaternary landscapes experienced multiple phases of geomorphologic activity. In this study,we used a combined geomorphological, pedological, sedimentological and palynological approach to characterize landscape development after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) near Lake Wygonin in Northern Poland. The pedostratigraphical findings from soil pits and drillings were extrapolated using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and electric resistivity tomography (ERT). During the Pomeranian phase, glacial and fluvioglacial processes dominated the landscape near Lake Wygonin. At the end of the glacial period, periglacial processes became relevant and caused the formation of ventifacts and coversands containing coated sand grains. At approximately 15,290-14,800 cal yr BP, a small pond formed in a kettle hole (profile BWI2). The lacustrine sediments lack eolian sand components and therefore indicate the decline of eolian processes during that time. The increase of Juniperus and rock-rose (Helianthemum) in the pollen diagram is a prominent marker of the Younger Dryas. At the end of the Younger Dryas, a partial reshaping of the landscape is indicated by abundant charcoal fragments in disturbed lake sediments. No geomorphologic activity since the beginning of the Holocene is documented in the terrestrial and wetland archives. The anthropogenic impact is reflected in the pollen diagram by the occurrence of rye pollen grains (Cerealia type, Secale cereale) and translocated soil sediments dated to 1560-1410 cal yr BP, proving agricultural use of the immediate vicinity. With the onset of land use, gully incision and the accumulation of colluvial fans reshaped the landscape locally. Since 540-460 cal yr BP, further gully incision in the steep forest tracks has been associated with the intensification of forestry. Outside of the gully catchments, the weakly podzolized Rubic Brunic Arenosols show no features of Holocene soil erosion. Reprinted from CATENA, Volume 124

  8. Scenario development of long-term evolution for deep hydrochemical conditions in Horonobe area, Hokkaido, Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwatsuki, Teruki; Ishii, Eiichi; Niizato, Tadafumi

    2009-01-01

    A methodology to estimate long-term hydrochemical evolution of deep underground is indispensable for the safe geological isolation of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). This study demonstrates the methodology by illustrating scenarios of past geological events, processes, and their interrelationships with present-day hydrochemical conditions. Besides, we infer long-term variations of groundwater chemistry at Horonobe, Hokkaido, Japan. The region is underlain mainly by Neogene to Quaternary marine sedimentary rocks, (the Wakkanai Formation (Fm) and the overlying Koetoi Fm: siliceous and diatomaceous mudstones). During various events in the geological past, such as deposition, compaction, uplift, and denudation, and the more recent Neotectonic activities in this area, highly permeable hydrogeological structures formed at depths not over than 400 m below ground level in the Wakkanai Fm. The hydrogeological system can be subdivided into three hydrogeological sub-systems: (1) overlying, relatively low permeability Koetoi Fm., (2) highly permeable, upper Wakkanai Fm at depths less than 400 m and (3) relatively low permeability Wakkanai Fm, at depths greater than 400 m. The present-day hydrochemical conditions in each sub-system have been influenced by hydrogeological properties and hydraulic conditions over a long period. In subsystems 1 and 2, recharging with meteoric water flushed connate seawater during uplifting and denudation during the last 1 Ma. In contrast, fossil seawater with one-third to one-half the salinity of present-day seawater has been preserved in subsystem 3. The relatively low permeability sequence in sub-system 3 was formed by the compaction of diatomaceous mudstone during subsidence prior to 1.0 Ma. After that, changes of climatic conditions and geographical features would not have influenced groundwater flow. The groundwater chemistry evolved from seawater during long-term geochemical diagenesis in a relatively closed system. The long

  9. European landscape architecture and territorial strategies for water landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diedrich, Lisa Babette

    2010-01-01

    This article sums up the author’s lecture at the 2009 Sydney Resilient Water Landscapes Symposium and presents a series of realized or planned European landscape architectural and urbanistic projects on water landscapes taken from the recently published book On Site/ Landscape Architecture Europe...... and accompanying reflections. The hypothesis is that further scientific research can help defining weaknesses and strengths of the existing water landscape designs in terms of resilience, extract principles and tools, improve the weak ones and communicate the strong ones and develop general quality criteria...... and tools for future resilient water landscapes....

  10. Using Landscape metrics to analyze the landscape evolution under land abandonment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelorosso, Raffaele; Della Chiesa, Stefano; Gobattoni, Federica; Leone, Antonio

    2010-05-01

    view, therefore, not all the abandoned land will be covered by woods also after a reasonable time (e.g 20-30 years); open areas patches can resist over time as a consequence of different (more o less natural) disturbances, pointing out a landscape mosaic and vegetation pattern almost never completely homogeneous. This spatial and temporal differentiation of landscape pattern, therefore, require both the individuation of disturbances and their effect on land abandonment process to be analyzed for each different landscape. Many types of analysis and models were developed and used to understand the reason of abandonment, its evolution, likelihood future landscape scenarios and the leading consequences on environment and population in order to establish right land-uses to obtain suitable and sustainable goods and services from landscape itself. One of these analysis recurs to landscape metrics. Landscape metrics have been widely applied in ecology and landscape ecology (Rainis, 2003; Romero-Calcerrada and Perry, 2004 ; Narumalani et al., 2004; Rocchini et al., 2006) because they allow an objective description of the temporal pattern of landscape change and a comparison with other landscapes (Turner et al., 2001). Furthermore, a description of the shape, size and spatial arrangement of patches of vegetation can be used to link the observed pattern with the ecological processes that may have generated it (Rocchini et al., 2006). So these metrics can be used to see how an abandoned landscape can evolve under the effects of different constrictions that, also if not completely knew, have been affecting the present assessment. Through historical and recent aerial photos (1954-1985-1999) and several landscape metrics, the evolution of marginal municipality of central Apennine under abandonment is presented here. Temporal evolution of landscape metrics was discussed to underline the importance of such descriptors of vegetation pattern dynamics and the key role played by these

  11. Did tillage erosion play a role in millennial scale landscape development?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, J.E.M.; Temme, A.J.A.M.; Schoorl, J.M.; Braakhekke, M.H.A.; Veldkamp, A.

    2012-01-01

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) quantitatively simulate processes of sedimentation and erosion on millennial timescales. An important aspect of human impact on erosion is sediment redistribution due to agriculture, referred to herein as tillage erosion. In this study we aim to analyse the

  12. Evaluating the impact of regional development policies on future landscape services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willemen, L.; Hein, L.; Verburg, P.H.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we analyse the potential impact of an integrated policy package for the Gelderse Vallei region in the Netherlands on seven landscape services (residential use, intensive livestock husbandry, drinking water supply, attractiveness for overnight tourism, habitat provision for rare,

  13. Changing Pedagogic Codes in a Class of Landscape Architects Learning "Ecologically Sustainable Development"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, G. M.

    2010-01-01

    Professional discourse in education has been the focus of research conducted mostly with teachers and professional practitioners, but the work of students in the built environment has largely been ignored. This article presents an analysis of students' visual discourse in the final professional year of a landscape architecture course in Brisbane,…

  14. Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

    2011-12-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  15. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  16. Dynamic plan modelling and visualization : converting an urban development plan into a transition scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries, de B.; Jessurun, A.J.; Sadowski - Rasters, G.; Tidafy, T; Dorta, T

    2009-01-01

    Application of 3D models in urban planning practice is still limited to visualization of existing or newly designed situations. Municipalities are looking for possibilities to communicate the transition process of the urban development area with the citizens. A prototype system was developed to

  17. Networks for Life; scenario development of an ecological network in Cheshire County

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooij, van S.A.M.; Steingröver, E.G.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2003-01-01

    In this report, a vision for ecological networks in Cheshire County is developed and presented. This vision is developed in close interaction with the County Council. The vision contains a proposal for sound ecological networks of meres and mosses, heathland, rivers, woodland and grassland. A

  18. Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

    2013-04-01

    In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages

  19. Soil-landscape development and late Quaternary environmental change in coastal Estremadura, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Michael; Haws, Jonathan; Benedetti, Michael; Bicho, Nuno

    2015-04-01

    This poster integrates soil-landscape analysis with archaeological survey and paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Soils in surface and buried contexts in Estremadura, Portugal, provide evidence of landscape stability and instability, relative age relationships between landforms, and general paleoenvironmental conditions during the late Quaternary. These factors provide insight into the distribution and condition of Paleolithic archaeological sites and help understand the record of human settlement in the region. Late Pleistocene and Holocene dunes extend inland approximately 10 km from coastal source regions. Surface soils in Holocene dunes under maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) forest exhibit A, E, C/Bh and A, C horizon sequences and classify as Quartzipsamments. Surface soils in late Pleistocene dunes exhibit A, E, Bh, Bhs, Bs horizon sequences and classify as Haplorthods. Both Pleistocene and Holocene dunes commonly bury a heavily weathered soil formed in calcareous sandstone. The boundary between underlying buried soils and overlying surface soils is characterized by a lag deposit of medium to coarse, moderately-rounded gravels, underlain immediately by subsurface Bt and Bss horizons. The lag deposit and absence of buried A horizons both indicate intense and/or prolonged surface erosion prior to burial by late Quaternary dunes. Soil-geomorphic relationships therefore suggest at least two distinct episodes of dune emplacement and subsequent landscape stability following an extensive episode late Pleistocene landscape instability and soil erosion. A conceptual model of soil-landscape evolution through the late Quaternary and Holocene results from the integration of soil profile data, proxy paleoenvironmental data, and the partial record of human settled as revealed in the archaeological record.

  20. Developing and exploring a theory for the lateral erosion of bedrock channels for use in landscape evolution models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. L. Langston

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding how a bedrock river erodes its banks laterally is a frontier in geomorphology. Theories for the vertical incision of bedrock channels are widely implemented in the current generation of landscape evolution models. However, in general existing models do not seek to implement the lateral migration of bedrock channel walls. This is problematic, as modeling geomorphic processes such as terrace formation and hillslope–channel coupling depends on the accurate simulation of valley widening. We have developed and implemented a theory for the lateral migration of bedrock channel walls in a catchment-scale landscape evolution model. Two model formulations are presented, one representing the slow process of widening a bedrock canyon and the other representing undercutting, slumping, and rapid downstream sediment transport that occurs in softer bedrock. Model experiments were run with a range of values for bedrock erodibility and tendency towards transport- or detachment-limited behavior and varying magnitudes of sediment flux and water discharge in order to determine the role that each plays in the development of wide bedrock valleys. The results show that this simple, physics-based theory for the lateral erosion of bedrock channels produces bedrock valleys that are many times wider than the grid discretization scale. This theory for the lateral erosion of bedrock channel walls and the numerical implementation of the theory in a catchment-scale landscape evolution model is a significant first step towards understanding the factors that control the rates and spatial extent of wide bedrock valleys.

  1. Developing and exploring a theory for the lateral erosion of bedrock channels for use in landscape evolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langston, Abigail L.; Tucker, Gregory E.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding how a bedrock river erodes its banks laterally is a frontier in geomorphology. Theories for the vertical incision of bedrock channels are widely implemented in the current generation of landscape evolution models. However, in general existing models do not seek to implement the lateral migration of bedrock channel walls. This is problematic, as modeling geomorphic processes such as terrace formation and hillslope-channel coupling depends on the accurate simulation of valley widening. We have developed and implemented a theory for the lateral migration of bedrock channel walls in a catchment-scale landscape evolution model. Two model formulations are presented, one representing the slow process of widening a bedrock canyon and the other representing undercutting, slumping, and rapid downstream sediment transport that occurs in softer bedrock. Model experiments were run with a range of values for bedrock erodibility and tendency towards transport- or detachment-limited behavior and varying magnitudes of sediment flux and water discharge in order to determine the role that each plays in the development of wide bedrock valleys. The results show that this simple, physics-based theory for the lateral erosion of bedrock channels produces bedrock valleys that are many times wider than the grid discretization scale. This theory for the lateral erosion of bedrock channel walls and the numerical implementation of the theory in a catchment-scale landscape evolution model is a significant first step towards understanding the factors that control the rates and spatial extent of wide bedrock valleys.

  2. A comparison of three development scenarios for a deepwater field in offshore Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitworth, J. Lynne; Murray, John J. [Technip Offshore Inc., Houston, TX (United States); Villela, Marcos [Brasflex Tubos Flexiveis Ltda., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Coopersmith, Ellen; Burkholder, Kent [Decision Frameworks, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

    2004-07-01

    This paper presents a case study of an ultra-deep water (> 2000 m) Brazil prospect to demonstrate that a dry tree development is feasible and can enhance the economic attractiveness of such a development. Similar area developments have typically employed sub sea tiebacks to a FPSO or Semi submersible Floating Production Unit (FPU). In this case study, dry-tree units based on a new floater design, the Extendable Draft Platform (EDP), are compared to wet-tree developments with FPSO and Semi submersible floaters. The objective is to demonstrate that a dry-tree concept is currently feasible and can add value to the development of deep water fields. The three strategies are framed for a value comparison analysis to examine which approach produces the most favorable economic outcome. Execution schedules and production profiles are also developed for each strategy. The strategies are evaluated on the basis of Expected (or risk-weighted) Net Present Value (ENPV) of each approach. The results of the analyses show that the value enhancement is captured predominantly due to the capability of the EDP to support a flexible dry-tree development. (author)

  3. Population and sustainable development in China: Population and household scenarios for two regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, L.

    1999-01-01

    China's notoriously bulging population has challenged the government's and the land's ability to provide sufficient food, employment, housing, education, and the like. The Chinese environment and resources have been further fatigued by rapid economic development and modernisation. This precarious

  4. Energy supply scenarios and sustainable development: A total view on economy and ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voss, A.

    2000-01-01

    'Sustainable development' is the guiding principle of the ecological, economic and development policy debate. Although the guiding principle of 'sustainable development' meets with unanimous approval as a general rule, there is a broad spectrum of views and interpretations of this guiding principle in terms of its normative and theoretical scientific basis as well as with regard to the aims and line of action to be taken. This applies especially to the energy sector. This lecture endeavours to concretise the guiding principle of 'sustainable development' for the energy sector, or to put in more exact terms, for the sector providing energy services. Major options for the supply of energy are classified and evaluated in terms of their importance for the sustainable provision of energy based on the results of a comprehensive review of materials and different types of energy. (orig.) [de

  5. Development of the scenario-based training system to reduce hazards and prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, KwanSeong; Choi, Jong-Won; Moon, JeiKwon; Choi, ByungSeon; Hyun, Dongjun; Lee, Jonghwan; Kim, IkJune; Kim, GeunHo; Kang, ShinYoung

    2015-01-01

    Decommissioning of nuclear facilities has to be accomplished by assuring the safety of workers. Decommissioning workers need familiarization with working environments because working environment is under high radioactivity and work difficulty during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. On-the-job training of decommissioning works could effectively train decommissioning workers but this training approach could consume much costs and poor modifications of scenarios. The efficiency of virtual training system could be much better than that of physical training system. This paper was intended to develop the training system to prevent accidents for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The requirements for the training system were drawn. The data management modules for the training system were designed. The training system of decommissioning workers was developed on the basis of virtual reality which is flexibly modified. The visualization and measurement in the training system were real-time done according as changes of the decommissioning scenario. It can be concluded that this training system enables the subject to improve his familiarization about working environments and to prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. In the end, the safety during decommissioning of nuclear facilities will be guaranteed under the principle of ALARA

  6. Development of the scenario-based training system to reduce hazards and prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, KwanSeong; Choi, Jong-Won; Moon, JeiKwon; Choi, ByungSeon; Hyun, Dongjun; Lee, Jonghwan; Kim, IkJune; Kim, GeunHo; Kang, ShinYoung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Decommissioning of nuclear facilities has to be accomplished by assuring the safety of workers. Decommissioning workers need familiarization with working environments because working environment is under high radioactivity and work difficulty during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. On-the-job training of decommissioning works could effectively train decommissioning workers but this training approach could consume much costs and poor modifications of scenarios. The efficiency of virtual training system could be much better than that of physical training system. This paper was intended to develop the training system to prevent accidents for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The requirements for the training system were drawn. The data management modules for the training system were designed. The training system of decommissioning workers was developed on the basis of virtual reality which is flexibly modified. The visualization and measurement in the training system were real-time done according as changes of the decommissioning scenario. It can be concluded that this training system enables the subject to improve his familiarization about working environments and to prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. In the end, the safety during decommissioning of nuclear facilities will be guaranteed under the principle of ALARA.

  7. Defining project scenarios for the agile requirements engineering product-line development questionnaire

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Kunwu; Lempert, Meli; Tang, Yan; Tian, Kun; Cooper, Kendra M.L.; Franch Gutiérrez, Javier

    2007-01-01

    Current agile methods are focused on practices of small, rapid developing and iteration, more people oriented, less documentation projects, and the use of the methods in large, product line projects are somehow difficult. UTD and GESSI have started a project to develop an expert system that can assist a requirements enginer in selecting a requirements engineering process that is well suited for their project, in particular with respect to the use of agile and product line engineering methods....

  8. Principles of landscape architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijhuis, S.

    2013-01-01

    The Department of Urbanism at the Faculty of Architecture and Built Environment, TU Delft considers urbanism as a planning and design oriented activity towards urban and rural landscapes. It aims to enhance, restore or create landscapes from a perspective of sustainable development, so as to guide,

  9. A solution to the water resources crisis in wetlands: development of a scenario-based modeling approach with uncertain features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Ying; Huang, Guohe; Sun, Wei

    2013-01-01

    A scenario-based interval two-phase fuzzy programming (SITF) method was developed for water resources planning in a wetland ecosystem. The SITF approach incorporates two-phase fuzzy programming, interval mathematical programming, and scenario analysis within a general framework. It can tackle fuzzy and interval uncertainties in terms of cost coefficients, resources availabilities, water demands, hydrological conditions and other parameters within a multi-source supply and multi-sector consumption context. The SITF method has the advantage in effectively improving the membership degrees of the system objective and all fuzzy constraints, so that both higher satisfactory grade of the objective and more efficient utilization of system resources can be guaranteed. Under the systematic consideration of water demands by the ecosystem, the SITF method was successfully applied to Baiyangdian Lake, which is the largest wetland in North China. Multi-source supplies (including the inter-basin water sources of Yuecheng Reservoir and Yellow River), and multiple water users (including agricultural, industrial and domestic sectors) were taken into account. The results indicated that, the SITF approach would generate useful solutions to identify long-term water allocation and transfer schemes under multiple economic, environmental, ecological, and system-security targets. It can address a comparative analysis for the system satisfactory degrees of decisions under various policy scenarios. Moreover, it is of significance to quantify the relationship between hydrological change and human activities, such that a scheme on ecologically sustainable water supply to Baiyangdian Lake can be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Development of Integrated Real-Time Control of Internal Transport Barriers in Advanced Operation Scenarios on JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreau, D.; Crisanti, F.; Laborde, L.

    2005-01-01

    An important experimental programme is in progress on JET to investigate plasma control schemes which, with a limited number of actuators, could eventually enable ITER to sustain steady state burning plasmas in an 'advanced tokamak' operation scenario. A multi-variable model-based technique was recently developed for the simultaneous control of several plasma parameter profiles in discharges with internal transport barriers (ITB), using lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) together with neutral beam injection (NBI) and ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH). The proposed distributed-parameter control scheme relies on the experimental identification of an integral linear response model operator and retains the intrinsic couplings between the plasma parameter profiles. A first set of experiments was performed to control the current density profile in the low-density/low-power LH-driven phase of the JET advanced scenarios, using only one actuator (LHCD) and a simplified (lumped-parameter) version of the control scheme. Several requested steady state magnetic equilibria were thus obtained and sustained for about 7s, up to full relaxation of the ohmic current throughout the plasma. A second set of experiments was dedicated to the control of the q-profile with 3 actuators (LHCD, NBI and ICRH) during the intense heating phase of advanced scenarios. The safety factor profile was also shown to approach a requested profile within about 5s. The achieved plasma equilibrium was close to steady state. Finally, during the recent high power experimental campaign, experiments have been conducted in a 3T/1.7MA plasma, achieving the simultaneous control of the current density and electron temperature profiles in ITB plasmas. Here, the distributed-parameter version of the algorithm was used for the first time, again with 3 actuators. Real-time control was applied during 7s, and allowed to reach successfully different target q-profiles (monotonic and reversed-shear ones) and different ITB

  11. Development of integrated real-time control of internal transport barriers in advanced operation scenarios on Jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreau, D.; Laborde, L.; Litaudon, X.; Mazon, D.; Zabeo, L.; Joffrin, E.; Lennholm, M. [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d' Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee; Moreau, D. [EFDA-JET CSU, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, OX (United Kingdom); Crisanti, F.; Pericoli-Ridolfini, V.; Riva, M.; Tuccillo, A. [Euratom-ENEA Association, C.R. Frascati (Italy); Murari, A. [Euratom-ENEA Association, Consorzio RFX, Padova (Italy); Tala, T. [Euratom-TEKES Association, VTT Processes (Finland); Albanese, R.; Ariola, M.; Tommasi, G. de; Pironti, A. [Euratom-ENEA Association, CREATE, Napoli (Italy); Felton, R.; Zastrow, K.D. [Euratom-UKAEA Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon(United Kingdom); Baar, M. de; Vries, P. de [Euratom-FOM Association, TEC Cluster, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); La Luna, E. de [Euratom-CIEMAT Association, CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain)

    2004-07-01

    An important experimental programme is in progress on JET to investigate plasma control schemes which, with a limited number of actuators, could eventually enable ITER to sustain steady state burning plasmas in an 'advanced tokamak' operation scenario. A multi-variable model-based technique was recently developed for the simultaneous control of several plasma parameter profiles in discharges with internal transport barriers (ITB), using lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) together with neutral beam injection (NBI) and ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH). The proposed distributed-parameter control scheme relies on the experimental identification of an integral linear response model operator and retains the intrinsic couplings between the plasma parameter profiles. A first set of experiments was performed to control the current density profile in the low-density/low-power LH-driven phase of the JET advanced scenarios, using only one actuator (LHCD) and a simplified (lumped-parameter) version of the control scheme. Several requested steady state magnetic equilibria were thus obtained and sustained for about 7 s, up to full relaxation of the ohmic current throughout the plasma. A second set of experiments was dedicated to the control of the q-profile with 3 actuators (LHCD, NBI and ICRH) during the intense heating phase of advanced scenarios. The safety factor profile was also shown to approach a requested profile within about 5 s. The achieved plasma equilibrium was close to steady state. Finally, during the recent high power experimental campaign, experiments have been conducted in a 3 T / 1.7 MA plasma, achieving the simultaneous control of the current density and electron temperature profiles in ITB plasmas. Here, the distributed-parameter version of the algorithm was used for the first time, again with 3 actuators. Real-time control was applied during 7 s, and allowed to reach successfully different target q-profiles (monotonic and reversed-shear ones

  12. Development of integrated real-time control of internal transport barriers in advanced operation scenarios on Jet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreau, D.; Laborde, L.; Litaudon, X.; Mazon, D.; Zabeo, L.; Joffrin, E.; Lennholm, M.; Crisanti, F.; Pericoli-Ridolfini, V.; Riva, M.; Tuccillo, A.; Murari, A.; Tala, T.; Albanese, R.; Ariola, M.; Tommasi, G. de; Pironti, A.; Felton, R.; Zastrow, K.D.; Baar, M. de; Vries, P. de; La Luna, E. de

    2004-01-01

    An important experimental programme is in progress on JET to investigate plasma control schemes which, with a limited number of actuators, could eventually enable ITER to sustain steady state burning plasmas in an 'advanced tokamak' operation scenario. A multi-variable model-based technique was recently developed for the simultaneous control of several plasma parameter profiles in discharges with internal transport barriers (ITB), using lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) together with neutral beam injection (NBI) and ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH). The proposed distributed-parameter control scheme relies on the experimental identification of an integral linear response model operator and retains the intrinsic couplings between the plasma parameter profiles. A first set of experiments was performed to control the current density profile in the low-density/low-power LH-driven phase of the JET advanced scenarios, using only one actuator (LHCD) and a simplified (lumped-parameter) version of the control scheme. Several requested steady state magnetic equilibria were thus obtained and sustained for about 7 s, up to full relaxation of the ohmic current throughout the plasma. A second set of experiments was dedicated to the control of the q-profile with 3 actuators (LHCD, NBI and ICRH) during the intense heating phase of advanced scenarios. The safety factor profile was also shown to approach a requested profile within about 5 s. The achieved plasma equilibrium was close to steady state. Finally, during the recent high power experimental campaign, experiments have been conducted in a 3 T / 1.7 MA plasma, achieving the simultaneous control of the current density and electron temperature profiles in ITB plasmas. Here, the distributed-parameter version of the algorithm was used for the first time, again with 3 actuators. Real-time control was applied during 7 s, and allowed to reach successfully different target q-profiles (monotonic and reversed-shear ones) and

  13. The forecast scenario of rural territories infrastructure development (on the example of the Volga federal district

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery Nikolaevich Zekin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ point of view at the forecast of rural territories infrastructure development in Permskiy krai, Udmurtia and Kirovskaya Oblast by considering of innovative technology implementation is given in this paper. The improvement of rural people life conditions has been planned on the basis of this research. The indexes for life quality of rural people assessment were determined. The main ways for their increasing were defined. An important role in this process belongs to the small innovative enterprises, which develop new technologies and forward them to rural enterprises. It reduces risks because of their implementation and promotes the sustainable development of rural territories. It is planned that on the basis of the authors’ method of innovations application, the subsidized regions using their potential will sell their products on the external market of countries accessed to WTO and thereby will provide population with employment and increase its standard of living.

  14. Development and validation of health related quality of life questionnaire (Indian scenario) in diabetic foot ulcer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kateel, Ramya; Augustine, Alfred J; Ullal, Sheetal; Prabhu, Shivananda; Bhat, Rahul; Adhikari, Prabha

    2017-12-01

    To develop and validate Health Related Quality of Life Questionnaire in Diabetic Foot Ulcer Patients (HRQLQDFU) for Indian scenario. This study was conducted in two phases. First phase was Development of HRQLQDFU which included literature search and expert interview. Second phase was validation of HRQLQDFL which included face validation, content validation and construct validation. Face validation was done by ten diabetic foot ulcer patients, ten practicing nurses and ten care givers. They were asked to read and respond to questionnaire and report any difficulty in understanding the questions. Further they were asked to add any item to the questionnaire which according to them has a significant effect on quality of life. Content validation was done by six subject experts who judged the content relevance of questionnaire with score ranging from zero to four; zero being least relevant and four being most relevant. Content validity index was calculated for each question. Questions having content validity index≥0.8 were selected for the study. Reliability was tested by calculating Cronbach's alpha. In the development phase a questionnaire containing 37 questions with six domains was developed. None of patient had difficulty in understanding questions. After content validation a new questionnaire containing 20 questions was developed. Cronbach's alpha was 0.86 which shows good reliability. The new health related quality of life questionnaire on diabetic foot ulcer patients for an Indian scenario is validated and can be a reliably measure for quality of life in diabetic foot ulcer patients. Copyright © 2017 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Education for Sustainable Development in South Africa: A Model Case Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teise, K.; le Roux, A.

    2016-01-01

    Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) is an educational approach that, by being a catalyst of social change, promotes sustainability. Although South African education policy and practice appear to be oriented towards ESD, the concept is contested, and ragged with ambiguity and vagueness. Because the transformation of South African education…

  16. Civil war, climate change, and development: a scenario study for Sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Devitt, C.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war

  17. THE WORLD AGRIBUSINESS DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS AT THE CONTRACTING SYSTEM: THEORY AND PRACTICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safarbi Mukhamedovich Pshikhachev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of research could be methods of direct and indirect development in the Agri-Industrial Complex with factor of uncertainty. Most of main aim that is regulated to all Governments is the optimization of production volume. All nationals would like to develop the expansion of complex agrarian policy through international trade. Russia is a fifth world importer of agricultural products after Europe Union, China, the USA and Japan with total import should be going 40,4 bln. dollars. The main aims such policy will have to be the income stabilization for farmers and real growth of economy and good pricing for all counteragents of the market. The state agrarian policy is based on the internal and external standards including international. Domestic standards could be economic including a quality of physical and human capitals, role of state in the technology development and international exchange reserve, tax resource and social and politics. Specially for Russia is more actually it’s being research of the US Extension development, investing and hector payments realizing which are indirect methods in the agriculture. They are so many. These mechanisms are modern state policy in the Agro-Food system and that is the guaranty of Food Safety.

  18. Consequences of a double-ended severance of a steam generator tube and accidental development scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnov, M.V.; Titov, V.F.; Poplavskii, V.M.; Baklushin, R.P.

    1988-01-01

    The results of theoretical analysis for accidental sequences in a modular steam generator are presented. The most probable water leak development in sodium in case of steam generator emergency stop faults is examined. In all schemes the reactor safety is preserved [fr

  19. Development scenarios for the national coordination exercise and long-term management after a nuclear emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montero Prieto, M.; Gallego Diez, E.

    2013-01-01

    Developing a strategy to deal with an emergency situation from the response phase to the recovery can facilitate decision-making organizations to ensure optimum protection of health, the environment and society. It is strengthening the preparedness and response capacity to achieve a high degree of participation of the agents involved. (Author)

  20. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  1. A peek into the drug development scenario of endometriosis - A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goenka, Luxitaa; George, Melvin; Sen, Maitrayee

    2017-06-01

    Endometriosis is a gynaecological disease that is characterised by the presence of endometrium like tissue-epithelium and stroma that develops outside the uterine cavity, which is responsible for pelvic pain and infertility. Even though several medical therapies exist for the treatment of endometriosis, each of the drug class has its own limitations such as cost of treatment, side-effects and its short-term effect on the symptoms of endometriosis. In this review, we have attempted to summarize the current status and challenges of drug development for endometriosis. A systematic review was done and all the RCTs were selected from the identified hits. We included studies that explored the usage of therapeutic drugs on endometriosis patients from inception till November 2016. The search term used was 'Endometriosis' using PubMed and Clinicaltrials.gov. For the final analysis, 60 articles were analyzed and we identified the newly emerging drug therapies for endometriosis treatment and have briefed their current status and challenges in drug development for endometriosis. The quality of the selected studies was assessed based on the degree of bias. The current classes of drugs that have shown promising therapeutic results include Gonadotropin- releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonists, aromatase inhibitors (AI), and selective progesterone and estrogen receptor modulators, dopamine receptor-2-agonists and statins. The drugs that failed midway during development include tanezumab, rosiglitazone, infliximab, pentoxifylline, telapristone acetate, asoprisnil and raloxifene. From the literature review, it appears that the most promising molecules for the treatment of endometriosis in the near future include elagolix, mifepristone, TAK-385, KLH-2109 and ASP1707 and cabergoline. It remains to be seen if these molecules would succeed large phase 3 clinical trials and overcome the regulatory hurdles to become an essential tool in the gynaecologist's armamentarium against endometriosis

  2. GRTgaz 10-year system development plan - Indicative scenario for the period 2006 - 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    GRTgaz is a European leader in natural gas transmission, a world expert in gas transmission networks and systems, and an operator firmly committed to the energy transition. It owns and operates the gas transmission network throughout most of France and it manages the transmission network in Germany, thereby helping to ensure correct operation of the French and European gas market. It contributes to the energy security of regional supply systems and performs a public service mission to ensure the continuity of consumer supply. In accordance with the French Energy Code, GRTgaz publishes a 10-year development plan for its gas distribution network in France every year. This document is produced in line with European and French energy policies. It identifies the transport infrastructure that will need to be built over the next three years, and presents the main infrastructure that is likely to be developed within the next ten years. It incorporates the supply security obligations that TSOs are required to fulfil. It takes account of interested parties' needs and projects at the national, supranational and European levels. It is based on existing gas supply and demand and reasonable medium-term development forecasts for gas infrastructure, consumption and international trade

  3. Changing scenario for promotion and development of Ayurveda--way forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Pulok K; Nema, Neelesh K; Venkatesh, P; Debnath, Pratip K

    2012-09-28

    Ayurveda, derives from the Sanskrit words Ayus (life) and Veda (knowledge) is the most ancient system of traditional medicine of the world. It has been practiced in Indian peninsula since 5000 BC to offer natural ways to treat diseases and to promote healthcare. We reviewed the literature on the history, principles and current status of Ayurveda. The data have been presented systematically including the initiatives from Government of India. Several aspects of administrative management, education, teaching and related aspects for promotion and development of Ayurveda and other Indian systems of traditional medicine have been discussed. This paper reviews on different aspects of development of Ayurveda. Presently, there are 2420 hospitals with about 42271 beds, 15017 dispensaries, 429246 registered practitioners, more than 320 educational institutions, 7699 drug-manufacturing units to promote Ayurveda into the health care delivery system in the country. Ayurvedic Pharmacopoeia of India is the official document for single Ayurvedic drugs (540 monographs) and different formulations (152 monographs). Several aspects in this regard for development of Ayurveda have been discussed. Considering the widespread use and popularity of Ayurveda worldwide, administrative management and infrastructure facilities, indigenous practices and standards for quality control and it's evaluation have been highlighted. In India, all such efforts for integration of Ayurveda provide potential role in the health care benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Managing urban water supplies in developing countries Climate change and water scarcity scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vairavamoorthy, Kala; Gorantiwar, Sunil D.; Pathirana, Assela

    Urban areas of developing countries are facing increasing water scarcity and it is possible that this problem may be further aggravated due to rapid changes in the hydro-environment at different scales, like those of climate and land-cover. Due to water scarcity and limitations to the development of new water resources, it is prudent to shift from the traditional 'supply based management' to a 'demand management' paradigm. Demand management focuses on measures that make better and more efficient use of limited supplies, often at a level significantly below standard service levels. This paper particularly focuses on the intermittent water supplies in the cities of developing countries. Intermittent water supplies need to be adopted due to water scarcity and if not planned properly, results in inequities in water deliveries to consumers and poor levels of service. It is therefore important to recognise these realities when designing and operating such networks. The standard tools available for design of water supply systems often assume a continuous, unlimited supply and the supplied water amount is limited only be the demand, making them unsuitable for designing intermittent supplies that are governed by severely limited water availability. This paper presents details of new guidelines developed for the design and control of intermittent water distribution systems in developing countries. These include a modified network analysis simulation coupled with an optimal design tool. The guidelines are driven by a modified set of design objectives to be met at least cost. These objectives are equity in supply and people driven levels of service (PDLS) expressed in terms of four design parameters namely, duration of the supply; timings of the supply; pressure at the outlet (or flow-rate at outlet); and others such as the type of connection required and the locations of connections (in particular for standpipes). All the four parameters are calculated using methods and

  5. Development of Landscape Metrics to Support Process-Driven Ecological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    channel experiences shoaling due to strong tidal currents transporting sediments and has a symmetrical north-south, tide-dominant ebb delta. A 350...quantitative relationships can be established between landscape pattern formation and environmental or geomorphic processes, then those relationships could...should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law , no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of

  6. Landscape architectural research in Canada: developing a certain future in uncertain times.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Paterson

    1995-03-01

    Full Text Available LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURAL RESEARCH in Canada is defined by the uncertain and complex global issues of the times, the significant theoretical and methodological debates facing the world of research in general, and the increased academic pressures for research in a less well-funded and more constricting research environment. It is also affected by the political environment in which its few researchers are outnumbered by the larger disciplines and professions which seem to be getting bigger all the time, and by its own internal struggles between its disciplinary and professional roles. Landscape architectural research efforts in Canada are, as such, both vigorous and hesitant, aggressive yet underfunded, well focused yet somewhat uncertain in their ultimate intention. This paper begins with a brief examination of the present context of our research. It next looks at the basic problems that have and continue to plague design research. With these contextual issues established, the paper then recounts a brief history of the profession and its emerging educational-research base in Canada and gives an overview of current research efforts. It concludes by suggesting several important directions that are needed in Canadian landscape architectural research over' the next 10 years. It is hoped that this personal, historical account of research efforts, problems and opportunities in Canada will allow others in the Asia-Pacific region to recognise the similarities to their own situations.

  7. Definition of Storage Complex for the Technological Development Plant and the Evaluation Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recreo, F.; Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.

    2015-01-01

    This report intends a geological description of the site for the Technological Development Plant that CIUDEN is conducting in Hontomín (Burgos) for the improvement, both technological and economic, of the key aspects of geological storage of CO2 in deep permeable formations. Safety studies of this site began in 2008 with a preliminary appraisal of several pre-selected areas in the western part of the so-called "Cantabrian Basin". However, the modelling of the processes acting in the permanent sequestration of CO2 requires a much more detailed knowledge of the geological formations that form the complex storage and of its lithologic, petrophysical, hydrogeological, geochemical and geomechanical characteristics. This report presents a summary of the geological and hydrogeological information available from the documentation provided by the Geological Survey of Spain (IGME) and the published studies conducted in the area for oil research campaigns between 1965-68 and 1991–96. This information has allowed to deriving a preliminary conceptualization of what would be the system model of the geological system where the Technological Development Plant will be installed as well as identifying the remaining uncertainties.

  8. Evaluation of nuclear power development scenarios in romania envisaging the long-term national energy sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margeanu, C.; Apostol, M.; Visan, I.; Prodea, I.

    2015-01-01

    The paper summarizes the results of RATEN ICN Pitesti experts' activities in the IAEA's Collaborative Project INPRO-SYNERGIES. Romanian study proposes to evaluate and analyze development of the nuclear capacity and increasing of its share in national energy sector, envisaging the long term national and regional energy sustainability by keeping options open for the future while bringing solutions to short/medium-term challenges. The study focused on the modelling of national NES (Nuclear Energy System) development on short and medium-term (time horizon 2050), considering the existing NFC (Nuclear Fuel Cycle) infrastructure and legislation, provisions of strategic documents in force and including also the possibility of regional collaboration regarding U/fresh fuel supply and SF (Spent Fuel) storage, as services provided at international market prices. The energy system modelling was realized by using the IAEA's MESSAGE program. The study results offer a clear image and also the possible answer to several key questions regarding: potential of nuclear energy to participate with an important share in national energy mix, in conditions of cost competitiveness, safety and security of supply; impact on national energy mix portfolio of capacities and electricity production; impact on Uranium domestic resources; economic projection/investments needed for new nuclear capacities addition; fresh fuel requirements for nuclear capacities; SF annually discharged and transferred to interim wet storage for cooling; SF volume in interim dry storage, etc. (authors)

  9. Rural and urban energy scenario of the developing countries and related health assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vohra, K.G.

    1982-01-01

    The pattern of energy use in India is considered in order to assess the impact on health of rural and urban energy sources in the developing countries. The health impact of the 'non-commercial' sources of energy used in India is discussed, with particular reference to the use of firewood and farm wastes for domestic cooking. The commercial energy sources considered include coal, oil and electricity. The generation of electricity from coal, hydro sources and nuclear fuels is discussed with regard to their health impact. The production and use of biogas instead of dried animal dung for domestic cooking in the rural areas of India is proposed in order to reduce the health detriment. On the basis of the past trend in the use of commercial and non-commercial energy in India, projections are made for the future, taking into consideration health detriment and evironmental damage associated with different sources. Finally, bases for changing the energy-use pattern in the developing countries are discussed, with particular emphasis on renewable sources and nuclear energy. (author)

  10. A Reactor Development Scenario for the FUZE Shear-flow Stabilized Z-pinch

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, H. S.; Higginson, D. P.; Schmidt, A.; Tummel, K. K.; Shumlak, U.; Nelson, B. A.; Claveau, E. L.; Golingo, R. P.; Weber, T. R.

    2016-10-01

    We present a conceptual design, scaling calculations, and a development path for a pulsed fusion reactor based on the shear-flow-stabilized Z-pinch device. Experiments performed on the ZaP device have demonstrated stable operation for 40 us at 150 kA total discharge current (with 100 kA in the pinch) for pinches that are 1cm in diameter and 100 cm long. Scaling calculations show that achieving stabilization for a pulse of 100 usec, for discharge current 1.5 MA, in a shortened pinch 50 cm, results in a pinch diameter of 200 um and a reactor plant Q 5 for reasonable assumptions of the various system efficiencies. We propose several key intermediate performance levels in order to justify further development. These include achieving operation at pinch currents of 300 kA, where Te and Ti are calculated to exceed 1 keV, 700 kA where fusion power exceeds pinch input power, and 1 MA where fusion energy per pulse exceeds input energy per pulse. This work funded by USDOE ARPAe ALPHA Program and performed under the auspices of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-697801.

  11. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  12. [Agrarian movements, development alternatives and food security in Central America: scenarios of transition].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez Rojas, R

    1991-01-01

    This article, based on personal experiences with a network of organizations of small and medium agricultural producers in Central America, aims to present the views of peasant organizations concerning agrarian problems in the region. The 3 major sections of work define the place of peasant agriculture in the traditional agrarian structure and the new problems resulting from the structural adjustment programs of the 1980s; separately describe the new peasant movements emerging in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, identifying common themes an efforts at international collaboration; and explore the positions of the peasant organizations on the optimal strategies for agricultural development and agrarian change. Agriculture remains the backbone of the Central American economies. But because the economic model in the region is 1 of accumulation characterized by dependency, concentration of capital, and social marginalization, the agrarian structure is at the basis of social tensions. Efforts to develop peasant agriculture and to give small producers access to marketing and credit services have been weak and sporadic. The new peasant movements are less inclined than those of the past to employ tactics of confrontation in their efforts to secure access to land and better working conditions. The new movement is the expression of small market producers sometimes grouped into associations who are oriented to production of basic foodstuffs for the internal market. A new concern with adaptation and negotiation is evident. The new organizations have in common a belief in their ability to propose new solutions to regional problems. Their views are founded on a positive assessment of the ability of peasant agriculture to produce food and add dynamism to the regional economy after barriers to credit, technological progress, and modernization in general are removed. Signs of increased cooperation are evident between peasant organizations and other groups

  13. Development of Applicable Test Scenario by the Grid Simulator of a Functional Test Bench

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farajzadehbibalan, Saber

    In this thesis, a data-driven testing procedure for wind turbine generators is developed. The procedure generates a data set for a hardware-in-the-loop testing setup at a test facility. The goal is to shorten validation process, prevent damage from highly dangerous grid tests, and conduct different...... tests. The proposed procedure deploys a multivariate statistical model of the power grid derived from the wind farm's standpoint. A practical data set of an operational wind farm is available which is logged during the years of 2013 and 2014 for model identification and validation, respectively....... The first step of modeling is deriving the model from the standpoint of an arbitrary wind turbine generator utilizing dynamic principal component analysis. The model is the transformed data samples into a new projected space, i.e. latent space, as the combination of the principal components and the scores...

  14. Electronics and telecommunications in Poland, issues and perspectives: Part III. Innovativeness, applications, economy, development scenarios, politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modelski, Józef; Romaniuk, Ryszard

    2010-09-01

    Electronics is under development in this country in an organized and institutional way since the beginning of 30-ties of the previous century. It grew up from electrical engineering of weak currents and its first name used popularly was communications. It was time when television was born and the radio was maturing. Electronics is a branch of research and technology which deals with generation and processing of electrical and electromagnetic signals. A subject of telecommunications is signal transmission for a distance. Electronics and telecommunications (ET) includes or is combined with other branches like: microelectronics, radioelectronics, optoelectronics, photonics, acoustoelectronics, magnetronics, bioelectronics, energoelectronics, material engineering, semiconductor physics, automation and robotics, mechatronics and microsystems, informatics, teleinformatics, software engineering and other. Devices and functional systems of ET such as computers, data warehouses, cell phones, TV sets, Internet, GPS are build of electronic components and circuits. ET is a branch which belongs to hi-tech area, where the products gather a large load of knowledge of value overcoming frequently the price of work and material. ET has recently turned to an active participant of the processes of generation, storing, processing, transportation, distribution and usage of knowledge in the society. ET started to create artificial intelligence, co-creates intellectual property, searches for knowledge in big data sets, aids medicine, extends virtual/augmented reality, builds Internet of persons and things, strengthens security, protects natural environment, facilitates our life, aids our decisions, activates individuals, equalizes chances, provides convenient personal communications and access to data, starts building a penetrating ubiquitous infrastructure, ceases to be only a branch of technology, grows into the social space, touches culture, sociology, psychology and art. Such an

  15. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  16. Fournier′s gangrene developing secondary to infected hydrocele: A unique clinical scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umran Sarwar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We report the first case of Fournier′s gangrene (FG developing secondary to an infected hydrocele worldwide. We present a case report with a brief overview of the literature relating to FG and its aetiology, diagnosis and management. A 70 year-old male was referred by his General Practitioner with a 2 week history of worsening symptoms of scrotal discomfort and swelling. Following clinical examination, an initial diagnosis of an infected right-sided hydrocele was made and treatment, consisting of antibiotics, was initiated. Despite showing good clinical improvement, several days later, necrotic areas were observed over the right hemiscrotum with spreading cellulitis. A diagnosis of FG was made. The patient was started on triple-therapy antibiotics and taken to the operating room for urgent surgical debridement. Necrotic skin and subcutaneous tissue extending over the perineum and lower anterior abdomen was debrided down to healthy tissue. A further debridement took place 2 days later. The patient continued to improve and was eventually discharged under the care of Plastic Surgeons for reconstruction of the soft tissue defect. FG is a type of necrotising fasciitis predominantly affecting the male perineal, perianal, genital and anterior abdominal wall regions. It has a significant mortality rate, and the key to survival is early detection and treatment consisting of antibiotics and surgical debridement of the affected area. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reported case of FG developing secondary to an existing hydrocele without any prior urological intervention. The case highlights the important clinical diagnostic and therapeutic interventions required to prevent complications associated with this, potentially fatal, condition.

  17. Conservation and re-development of sade traditional kampong at Rambitan village with local approach and cultural landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harapan Siregar, Andi

    2018-03-01

    Sade Kampong is one of the traditional kampongs in Indonesia, which located at Rambitan Village, Lombok. Lombok has been developed for tourism activity since years ago. The Lombok Province Government has identified Tourism as one of the key drives for the economic development. Hotel resort and others hospitalities buildings have been developed to all of the areas. Nowadays, the development of Sade Cultural Kampong will therefore open up new and demand oriented products (only focus on traditional woven of Sasak). Sade Kampong should be developed as a tourism destination with appreciated and developed its heritage and traditions with sustainability concepts (with the focus on social, economic, and environmental). This paper will elaborate some local potential Sade Kampong, such as architecture, culture, and landscape as a local potential for developing a new tourism destination.

  18. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K. [ed.

    1993-12-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.

  19. A Reactor Development Scenario for the FuZE Sheared-Flow Stabilized Z-pinch

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Harry S.; Higginson, D. P.; Schmidt, A.; Tummel, K. K.; Shumlak, U.; Nelson, B. A.; Claveau, E. L.; Forbes, E. G.; Golingo, R. P.; Stepanov, A. D.; Weber, T. R.; Zhang, Y.

    2017-10-01

    We present a conceptual design, scaling calculations, and development path for a pulsed fusion reactor based on a flow-stabilized Z-pinch. Experiments performed on the ZaP and ZaP-HD devices have largely demonstrated the basic physics of sheared-flow stabilization at pinch currents up to 100 kA. Initial experiments on the FuZE device, a high-power upgrade of ZaP, have achieved 20 usec of stability at pinch current 100-200 kA and pinch diameter few mm for a pinch length of 50 cm. Scaling calculations based on a quasi-steady-state power balance show that extending stable duration to 100 usec at a pinch current of 1.5 MA and pinch length of 50 cm, results in a reactor plant Q 5. Future performance milestones are proposed for pinch currents of: 300 kA, where Te and Ti are calculated to exceed 1-2 keV; 700 kA, where DT fusion power would be expected to exceed pinch input power; and 1 MA, where fusion energy per pulse exceeds input energy per pulse. This work funded by USDOE ARPA-E and performed under the auspices of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-734770.

  20. Landscape Disturbance from Unconventional and Conventional Oil and Gas Development in the Marcellus Shale Region of Pennsylvania, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Terrence Slonecker

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The spatial footprint of unconventional (hydraulic fracturing and conventional oil and gas development in the Marcellus Shale region of the State of Pennsylvania was digitized from high-resolution, ortho-rectified, digital aerial photography, from 2004 to 2010. We used these data to measure the spatial extent of oil and gas development and to assess the exposure of the extant natural resources across the landscape of the watersheds in the study area. We found that either form of development: (1 occurred in ~50% of the 930 watersheds that defined the study area; (2 was closer to streams than the recommended safe distance in ~50% of the watersheds; (3 was in some places closer to impaired streams and state-defined wildland trout streams than the recommended safe distance; (4 was within 10 upstream kilometers of surface drinking water intakes in ~45% of the watersheds that had surface drinking water intakes; (5 occurred in ~10% of state-defined exceptional value watersheds; (6 occurred in ~30% of the watersheds with resident populations defined as disproportionately exposed to pollutants; (7 tended to occur at interior forest locations; and (8 had >100 residents within 3 km for ~30% of the unconventional oil and gas development sites. Further, we found that exposure to the potential effects of landscape disturbance attributable to conventional oil and gas development was more prevalent than its unconventional counterpart.

  1. Did tillage erosion play a role in millennial scale landscape development? - an evaluation in SE Spain using a landscape evolution model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, J.E.M.; Temme, A.J.A.M.; Schoorl, J.M.; Braakhekke, M.H.A.; Veldkamp, A.

    2012-01-01

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) quantitatively simulate processes of sedimentation and erosion on millennial timescales. An important aspect of human impact on erosion is sediment redistribution due to agriculture, referred to herein as tillage erosion. In this study we aim to analyse the

  2. Impact of natural climate change and historical land use on landscape development in the Atlantic Forest of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)