WorldWideScience

Sample records for land risk assessment

  1. A review of probabilistic risk assessment of contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeberg, T.; Bergbaeck, B.

    2005-01-01

    Background, Aims and Scope. The management and decisions concerning restoration of contaminated land often require indepth risk analyses. An environmental risk assessment is generally described as proceeding in four separate steps: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The risk assessment should acknowledge and quantify the uncertainty in risk predictions. This can be achieved by applying probabilistic methods which, although they have been available for many years, are still not generally used. Risk assessment of contaminated land is an area where probabilistic methods have proved particularly useful. Many reports have appeared in the literature, mostly by North American researchers. The aim of this review is to summarize the experience gained so far, provide a number of useful examples, and suggest what may be done to promote probabilistic methods in Europe and the rest of the world. Methods. The available literature has been explored through searches in the major scientific and technical databases, WWW resources, textbooks and direct contacts with active researchers. A calculation example was created using standard simulation software. (orig.)

  2. A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

    2006-01-01

    A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

  3. Prospective mixture risk assessment and management prioritizations for river catchments with diverse land uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Colin D.; de Zwart, Dick; Diamond, Jerome; Dyer, Scott D.; Holmes, Christopher M.; Marshall, Stuart; Burton, G. Allen

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Ecological risk assessment increasingly focuses on risks from chemical mixtures and multiple stressors because ecosystems are commonly exposed to a plethora of contaminants and nonchemical stressors. To simplify the task of assessing potential mixture effects, we explored 3 land use–related chemical emission scenarios. We applied a tiered methodology to judge the implications of the emissions of chemicals from agricultural practices, domestic discharges, and urban runoff in a quantitative model. The results showed land use–dependent mixture exposures, clearly discriminating downstream effects of land uses, with unique chemical “signatures” regarding composition, concentration, and temporal patterns. Associated risks were characterized in relation to the land‐use scenarios. Comparisons to measured environmental concentrations and predicted impacts showed relatively good similarity. The results suggest that the land uses imply exceedances of regulatory protective environmental quality standards, varying over time in relation to rain events and associated flow and dilution variation. Higher‐tier analyses using ecotoxicological effect criteria confirmed that species assemblages may be affected by exposures exceeding no‐effect levels and that mixture exposure could be associated with predicted species loss under certain situations. The model outcomes can inform various types of prioritization to support risk management, including a ranking across land uses as a whole, a ranking on characteristics of exposure times and frequencies, and various rankings of the relative role of individual chemicals. Though all results are based on in silico assessments, the prospective land use–based approach applied in the present study yields useful insights for simplifying and assessing potential ecological risks of chemical mixtures and can therefore be useful for catchment‐management decisions. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:715–728. © 2017 The Authors

  4. A Land-Use Perspective for Birdstrike Risk Assessment: The Attraction Risk Index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Coccon

    Full Text Available Collisions between aircraft and birds, birdstrikes, pose a serious threat to aviation safety. The occurrence of these events is influenced by land-uses in the surroundings of airports. Airports located in the same region might have different trends for birdstrike risk, due to differences in the surrounding habitats. Here we developed a quantitative tool that assesses the risk of birdstrike based on the habitats within a 13-km buffer from the airport. For this purpose, we developed Generalized Linear Models (GLMs with binomial distribution to estimate the contribution of habitats to wildlife use of the study area, depending on season. These GLMs predictions were combined to the flight altitude of birds within the 13-km buffer, the airport traffic pattern and the severity indices associated with impacts. Our approach was developed at Venice Marco Polo International airport (VCE, located in northeast Italy and then tested at Treviso Antonio Canova International airport (TSF, which is 20 km inland. Results from the two airports revealed that both the surrounding habitats and the season had a significant influence to the pattern of risk. With regard to VCE, agricultural fields, wetlands and urban areas contributed most to the presence of birds in the study area. Furthermore, the key role of distance of land-uses from the airport on the probability of presence of birds was highlighted. The reliability of developed risk index was demonstrated since at VCE it was significantly correlated with bird strike rate. This study emphasizes the importance of the territory near airports and the wildlife use of its habitats, as factors in need of consideration for birdstrike risk assessment procedures. Information on the contribution of habitats in attracting birds, depending on season, can be used by airport managers and local authorities to plan specific interventions in the study area in order to lower the risk.

  5. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-02-03

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  6. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongfang Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  7. Generic Assessment Criteria for human health risk assessment of potentially contaminated land in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yuanyuan; Nathanail, Paul C

    2009-12-20

    Generic Assessment Criteria (GAC) are derived using widely applicable assumptions about the characteristics and behaviour of contaminant sources, pathways and receptors. GAC provide nationally consistent guidance, thereby saving money and time. Currently, there are no human health based Generic Assessment Criteria (GAC) for contaminated sites in China. Protection of human health is therefore difficult to ensure and demonstrate; and the lack of GAC makes it difficult to tell if there is potential significant risk to human health unless site-specific criteria are derived. This paper derived Chinese GAC (GAC) for five inorganic and eight organic substances for three regions in China for three land uses: urban residential without plant uptake, Chinese cultivated land, and commercial/industrial using the SNIFFER model. The SNIFFER model has been further implemented with a dermal absorption algorithm and the model default input values have been changed to reflect the Chinese exposure scenarios. It is envisaged that the modified SNIFFER model could be used to derive GAC for more contaminants, more Regions, and more land uses. Further research to enhance the reliability and acceptability of the GAC is needed in regional/national surveys in diet and working patterns.

  8. Land use and air quality in urban environments: Human health risk assessment due to inhalation of airborne particles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, A C; Amarillo, A C; Carreras, H A; González, C M

    2018-02-01

    Particle matter (PM) and its associated compounds are a serious problem for urban air quality and a threat to human health. In the present study, we assessed the intraurban variation of PM, and characterized the human health risk associated to the inhalation of particles measured on PM filters, considering different land use areas in the urban area of Cordoba city (Argentina) and different age groups. To assess the intraurban variation of PM, a biomonitoring network of T. capillaris was established in 15 sampling sites with different land use and the bioaccumulation of Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn was quantified. After that, particles were collected by instrumental monitors placed at the most representative sampling sites of each land use category and an inhalation risk was calculated. A remarkable intraurban difference in the heavy metals content measured in the biomonitors was observed, in relation with the sampling site land use. The higher content was detected at industrial areas as well as in sites with intense vehicular traffic. Mean PM 10 levels exceeded the standard suggested by the U.S. EPA in all land use areas, except for the downtown. Hazard Index values were below EPA's safe limit in all land use areas and in the different age groups. In contrast, the carcinogenic risk analysis showed that all urban areas exceeded the acceptable limit (1 × 10 -6 ), while the industrial sampling sites and the elder group presented a carcinogenic risk higher that the unacceptable limit. These findings validate the use of T. capillaris to assess intraurban air quality and also show there is an important intraurban variation in human health risk associated to different land use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Kinetic and kinematic differences between first and second landings of a drop vertical jump task: implications for injury risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Nathaniel A; Ford, Kevin R; Myer, Gregory D; Hewett, Timothy E

    2013-04-01

    Though the first landing of drop vertical jump task is commonly used to assess biomechanical performance measures that are associated with anterior cruciate ligament injury risk in athletes, the implications of the second landing in this task have largely been ignored. We examined the first and second landings of a drop vertical jump for differences in kinetic and kinematic behaviors at the hip and knee. A cohort of 239 adolescent female basketball athletes (age=13.6 (1.6) years) completed drop vertical jump tasks from an initial height of 31 cm. A three dimensional motion capture system recorded positional data while dual force platforms recorded ground reaction forces for each trial. The first landing demonstrated greater hip adduction angle, knee abduction angle, and knee abduction moment than the second landing (P-valuesvertical jump as an assessment tool for anterior cruciate ligament injury risk behaviors in adolescent female athletes. The second landing may be a more rigorous task and provides a superior tool to evaluate sagittal plane risk factors than the first landing, which may be better suited to evaluate frontal plane risk factors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  11. A novel land use approach for assessment of human health: The relationship between urban structure types and cardiorespiratory disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Réquia Júnior, Weeberb João; Roig, Henrique Llacer; Koutrakis, Petros

    2015-12-01

    Extensive evidence shows that in addition to lifestyle factors, environmental aspects are an important risk factor for human health. Numerous approaches have been used to estimate the relationship between environment and health. For example, the urban characteristics, especially the types of land use, are considered a potential proxy indicator to evaluate risk of disease. Although several studies have used land use variables to assess human health, none of them has used the concept of Urban Morphology by Urban Structure Types (USTs) as indicators of land use. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between USTs and cardiorespiratory disease risks in the Federal District, Brazil. Toward this end, we used a quantile regression model to estimate risk. We used 21 types of UST. Income and population density were used as covariates in our sensitivity analysis. Our analysis showed an association between cardiorespiratory diseases risk and 10 UST variables (1 related to rural area, 6 related to residential area, 1 recreational area, 1 public area and 1 commercial area). Our findings suggest that the conventional land use method may be missing important information about the effect of land use on human health. The use of USTs can be an approach to complement the conventional method. This should be of interest to policy makers in order to enhance public health policies and to create future strategies in terms of urban planning, land use and environmental health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  13. Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

    2016-12-01

    Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the

  14. [Ecological risk assessment of land use based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA): a case study of Haitan Island, Fujian Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Chen, Peng; Wen, Chao-Xiang; Fu, Shi-Feng; Chen, Qing-Hui

    2014-07-01

    As a novel environment management tool, ecological risk assessment has provided a new perspective for the quantitative evaluation of ecological effects of land-use change. In this study, Haitan Island in Fujian Province was taken as a case. Based on the Landsat TM obtained in 1990, SPOT5 RS images obtained in 2010, general layout planning map of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone in 2030, as well as the field investigation data, we established an ecological risk index to measure ecological endpoints. By using spatial autocorrelation and semivariance analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the ecological risk of Haitan Island under different land-use situations was assessed, including the past (1990), present (2010) and future (2030), and the potential risk and its changing trend were analyzed. The results revealed that the ecological risk index showed obvious scale effect, with strong positive correlation within 3000 meters. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations were predominant types in spatial distribution of ecological risk index. The ecological risk index showed significant isotropic characteristics, and its spatial distribution was consistent with Anselin Local Moran I (LISA) distribution during the same period. Dramatic spatial distribution change of each ecological risk area was found among 1990, 2010 and 2030, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude of different ecological risk areas were diverse. The low ecological risk area showed a rise-to-fall trend while the medium and high ecological risk areas showed a fall-to-rise trend. In the planning period, due to intensive anthropogenic disturbance, the high ecological risk area spread throughout the whole region. To reduce the ecological risk in land-use and maintain the regional ecological security, the following ecological risk control strategies could be adopted, i.e., optimizing the spatial pattern of land resources, protecting the key ecoregions and controlling the scale of

  15. Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Wang, Peng; Huang, Hongsheng

    2013-01-01

    Land use/land cover change has been attracting increasing attention in the field of global environmental change research because of its role in the social and ecological environment. To explore the ecological risk characteristics of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, an eco-risk index was established in this study by the combination of a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragmentation index. Spatial distribution and gradient difference of land use eco-risk are analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and semivariance. Results show that ecological risk in the study area has a positive correlation, and there is a decreasing trend with the increase of grain size both in 1995 and 2005. Because the area of high eco-risk value increased from 1995 to 2005, eco-environment quality declined slightly in the study area. There are distinct spatial changes in the concentrated areas with high land use eco-risk values from 1995 to 2005. The step length of spatial separation of land use eco-risk is comparatively long—58 km in 1995 and 11 km in 2005—respectively. There are still nonstructural factors affecting the quality of the regional ecological environment at some small-scales. Our research results can provide some useful information for land eco-management, eco-environmental harnessing and restoration. In the future, some measures should be put forward in the regions with high eco-risk value, which include strengthening land use management, avoiding unreasonable types of land use and reducing the degree of fragmentation and separation. PMID:23343986

  16. Use of risk assessment panels during revision of the Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles G. Shaw

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the process used to conduct the 16 risk assessment panels and a subsistence working group held during revision of the Tongass land management plan. It provides an overview of how results from the panels were used by forest managers in plan-related decisionmaking, discusses some reactions to the effort, and identifies some opportunities to improve...

  17. Feasibility Study of Land Cover Classification Based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for Landslide Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thilanki Dahigamuwa

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Unfavorable land cover leads to excessive damage from landslides and other natural hazards, whereas the presence of vegetation is expected to mitigate rainfall-induced landslide potential. Hence, unexpected and rapid changes in land cover due to deforestation would be detrimental in landslide-prone areas. Also, vegetation cover is subject to phenological variations and therefore, timely classification of land cover is an essential step in effective evaluation of landslide hazard potential. The work presented here investigates methods that can be used for land cover classification based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, derived from up-to-date satellite images, and the feasibility of application in landslide risk prediction. A major benefit of this method would be the eventual ability to employ NDVI as a stand-alone parameter for accurate assessment of the impact of land cover in landslide hazard evaluation. An added benefit would be the timely detection of undesirable practices such as deforestation using satellite imagery. A landslide-prone region in Oregon, USA is used as a model for the application of the classification method. Five selected classification techniques—k-nearest neighbor, Gaussian support vector machine (GSVM, artificial neural network, decision tree and quadratic discriminant analysis support the viability of the NDVI-based land cover classification. Finally, its application in landslide risk evaluation is demonstrated.

  18. Assessments of risk indices and decision-making support within risk based land management and sustainable rehabilitation of radioactive contaminated territories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.; Didenko, V.; Golikov, V.

    2002-01-01

    Description of the applied Geoinformation Decision-Support System PRANA for risk based land management and rehabilitation of territories of Bryansk region (Russia), subjected to radioactive contamination as a result of the Chernobyl accident, is presented. The main blocks of PRANA DSS, including electronic maps, databases and models are described. Implementation of vector land use map with corresponding integration of different models allows integrating both local and regional level of analysis and practical implementation (from each field and settlement up to farm and district and regional levels). Some examples of model assessments (map of countermeasures and doses) are presented

  19. Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Lambert, James H

    2012-07-01

    Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Hydrologic analysis for ecological risk assessment of watersheds with abandoned mine lands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallagher, D.; Babendreier, J.; Cherry, D.

    1999-01-01

    As part of on-going study of acid mine drainage (AMD), a comprehensive ecological risk assessment was conducted in the Leading Creek Watershed in southeast Ohio. The watershed is influenced by agriculture and active and abandoned coal-mining operations. This work presents a broad overview of several quantitative measures of hydrology and hydraulic watershed properties available for in risk assessment and evaluates their relation to metrics of ecology. Data analysis included statistical comparisons of metrics of ecology, ecotoxicology, water quality, and physically based parameters describing land use, geomorphology, flow, velocity, and particle size. A multiple regression analysis indicated that abandoned mining operations dominated impacts upon aquatic ecology. It also indicated low flow velocity measurements and a ratio of maximum velocity to average velocity at low flow where helpful in describing variation in macroinvertebrate Total Taxa scores. Other key parameters also identified strong impact relationships with biodiversity trends and included pH, simple knowledge of any mining upstream, calculated % of the subshed covered by strip mines, and the measured depth of streambed sediments from site to site

  1. Risk assessment of the entry of canine-rabies into Papua New Guinea via sea and land routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookes, Victoria J; Keponge-Yombo, Andy; Thomson, David; Ward, Michael P

    2017-09-15

    Canine-rabies is endemic in parts of Indonesia and continues to spread eastwards through the Indonesian archipelago. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a land border with Papua Province, Indonesia, as well as logging and fishing industry connections throughout Asia. PNG has a Human Development Index of 0.505; therefore, an incursion of canine-rabies could have devastating impacts on human (7.5 million) and animal populations. Given the known difficulties of rabies elimination in resource-scarce environments, an incursion of rabies into PNG would also likely compromise the campaign for global elimination of rabies. A previous qualitative study to determine routes for detailed risk assessment identified logging, fishing and three land-routes (unregulated crossers ["shopper-crossers"], traditional border crossers and illegal hunters) as potential high risk routes for entry of rabies-infected dogs into PNG. The objective of the current study was to quantify and compare the probability of entry of a rabies-infected dog via these routes into PNG and to identify the highest risk provinces and border districts to target rabies prevention and control activities. Online questionnaires were used to elicit expert-opinion about quantitative model parameter values. A quantitative, stochastic model was then used to assess risk, and parameters with the greatest influence on the estimated mean number of rabies-infected dogs introduced/year were identified via global sensitivity analysis (Sobol method). Eight questionnaires - including 7 online - were implemented and >220 empirical distributions were parameterised using >2900 expert-opinions. The highest risk provinces for combined sea routes were West Sepik, Madang and Western Province, driven by the number of vessels and the probability of bringing dogs. The highest risk border districts for combined land routes were Vanimo-Green River and South Fly, driven by the number of people crossing the border and the number of dogs (with hunters

  2. Scientific information and the Tongass land management plan: key findings derived from the scientific literature, species assessments, resource analyses, workshops, and risk assessment panels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas N. Swanston; Charles G. Shaw; Winston P. Smith; Kent R. Julin; Guy A. Cellier; Fred H. Everest

    1996-01-01

    This document highlights key items of information obtained from the published literature and from specific assessments, workshops, resource analyses, and various risk assessment panels conducted as part of the Tongass land management planning process. None of this information dictates any particular decision; however, it is important to consider during decisionmaking...

  3. Assessing hazard risk, cost of adaptation and traditional land use activities in the context of permafrost thaw in communities in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.

    2015-12-01

    Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation

  4. Land Cover as a Framework For Assessing the Risk of Water Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    James D. Wickham; Kurt H. Riitters; Robert V. O' Neill; Kenneth H. Reckhow; Timothy G. Wade; K. Bruce Jones

    2000-01-01

    A survey of numerous field studies shows that nitrogen and phosphorous export coefficients are significantly different across forest, agriculture, and urban land-cover types. We used simulations to estimate the land-cover composition at which there was a significant risk of nutrient loads representative of watersheds without forest cover. The results suggest that at...

  5. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  6. Changing pattern of landslide risk in Europe - The SafeLand project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.

    2012-04-01

    The need to protect people and property with a changing pattern of landslide hazard and risk caused by climate change and changes in demography, and the reality for societies in Europe to live with the risk associated with natural hazards, were the motives for the project SafeLand: "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies." SafeLand is a large, integrating research project under the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme (FP7). The project started on 1 May 2009 and will end on 30 April 2012. It involves 27 partners from 12 European countries, and has international collaborators and advisers from China, India, USA, Japan and Hong Kong. SafeLand also involves 25 End-Users from 11 countries. SafeLand is coordinated by the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) at Norwegian Geotechnical Institute in Norway. Further information on the SafeLand project can be found at its web site http://safeland-fp7.eu/. Main results achieved in SafeLand include: - Various guidelines related to landslide triggering processes and run-out modelling. - Development and testing of several empirical methods for predicting the characteristics of threshold rainfall events for triggering of precipitation-induced landslides, and development of an empirical model for assessing the changes in landslide frequency (hazard) as a function of changes in the demography and population density. - Guideline for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment and zoning. - New methodologies for physical and societal vulnerability assessment. - Identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots for Europe. The results show clearly where areas with the largest landslide risk are located in Europe and the objective approach allows a ranking of the countries by exposed area and population. - Different regional and local climate model simulations over selected regions of Europe at spatial resolutions of 10x10 km and 2.8x2.8 km

  7. The Integrated Assessment of Land Degradation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Salvati

    Full Text Available This paper reviews recent findings on the complex field of land degradation (LD with focus on the Mediterranean Basin and Italy, in particular. The LD definition and assessment methods are examined in the light of the most important natural and human driving forces of the phenomenon, such as land use and climate changes.Various methodological issues are dealt with from multidisciplinary perspective with the aim of providing the ground for the development of integrated approaches: monitoring needs, assessment of costs, development of mitigation strategies, etc. Factors affecting land vulnerability to degradation are classified into bio-physical and socio-economic drivers with some examples of applications in Italy. The role of determinants such as agricultural development, population growth, and urban sprawl is recognised as important but still ambiguous and thus needs further studies. Based on these findings, policy responses aimed at mitigating LD and thus reducing desertification risk are discussed and methodological proposal are presented.

  8. An integrated simulation method for flash-flood risk assessment: 2. Effects of changes in land-use under a historical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosso, R.; Rulli, M. C.

    The influence of land use changes on flood occurrence and severity in the Bisagno River (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy is investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach (Rulli and Rosso, 2002). High resolution land-use maps for the area were reconstructed and scenario simulations were made for a pre-industrial (1878), an intermediate (1930) and a current (1980) year. Land-use effects were explored to assess the consequences of distributed changes in land use due to agricultural practice and urbanisation. Hydraulic conveyance effects were considered, to assess the consequences of channel modifications associated with engineering works in the lower Bisagno River network. Flood frequency analyses of the annual flood series, retrieved from the simulations, were used to examine the effect of land-use change and river conveyance on flood regime. The impact of these effects proved to be negligible in the upper Bisagno River, moderate in the downstream river and severe in the small tributaries in the lower Bisagno valley that drain densely populated urban areas. The simulation approach is shown to be capable of incorporating historical data on landscape and river patterns into quantitative methods for risk assessment.

  9. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Gong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

  10. Land Use and Land-use Changes in Life Cycle Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Rosa, Michele

    2017-01-01

    The assessment of Land Uses and Land-use Changes (LULUC) impacts has become increasingly complex. Sophisticated modelling tools such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are employed to capture both direct and indirect damages. However, quantitative assessments are often incomplete, dominated...... by environmental aspects. Land uses are a multidisciplinary matter and environmental and sustainable development policies intertwine. Yet, LCAs mostly focus on environmental impacts excluding socioeconomic implications of land occupation. This paper investigates the limitations of current LULUC modelling practices....... Consequently, results informing land policies may be biased towards determined development strategies or hide indirect effects and socioeconomic damages caused by large-scale land acquisitions, such as violation of tenure rights, speculation and displacement. Quantitative assessments of LULUC impacts...

  11. Impact differences in ground reaction force and center of mass between the first and second landing phases of a drop vertical jump and their implications for injury risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Nathaniel A; Ford, Kevin R; Myer, Gregory D; Hewett, Timothy E

    2013-04-26

    The drop vertical jump (DVJ) task is commonly used to assess biomechanical performance measures that are associated with ACL injury risk in athletes. Previous investigations have solely assessed the first landing phase. We examined the first and second landings of a DVJ for differences in the magnitude of vertical ground reaction force (vGRF) and position of center of mass (CoM). A cohort of 239 adolescent female basketball athletes completed a series of DVJ tasks from an initial box height of 31 cm. Dual force platforms and a three dimensional motion capture system recorded force and positional data for each trial. There was no difference in peak vGRF between landings (p=0.445), but side-to-side differences increased from the first to second landing (p=0.007). Participants demonstrated a lower minimum CoM during stance in the first landing than the second landing (p<0.001). The results have important implications for the future assessment of ACL injury risk behaviors in adolescent female athletes. Greater side-to-side asymmetry in vGRF and higher CoM during impact indicate the second landing of a DVJ may exhibit greater perturbation and better represent in-game mechanics associated with ACL injury risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Quality assessment of state land internal audit agency of Ukraine based on risk-oriented approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.G. Vugovska

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article stipulates that in modern conditions of development and reform of the national system of state financial control to the fore the issue of quality, which is an integral part of - or the provision of a service or product produced. In the context of our study on the evaluation of the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency, is the efficiency of its operation. The authors have developed scientific and methodical approach to assessing the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency of Ukraine by specifying the list of evaluation criteria and the implementation of risk-based model selection controlled entities, which allowed to determine the potential risk of financial irregularities and frequency of inspections by the State Financial Inspection. Determined that the planned inspections of the state Land Agency should be not less than once every two years. Applying the above approach will reduce the number of violations in budgetary institutions, improve the quality control organization by the internal audit work, increase the responsibility of the head of an effective, legitimate and proper use of funds. The authors were asked to form a report on the results of the internal audit quality in budgetary institutions and determined that for the cooperation of internal audit bodies of the State financial inspection need to be able to use the latest internal audit report to provide recommendations to improve the functioning of the internal control systems in controlled entities.

  13. Regional probabilistic risk assessment of heavy metals in different environmental media and land uses: An urbanization-affected drinking water supply area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chi; Cai, Yimin; Wang, Tieyu; Xiao, Rongbo; Chen, Weiping

    2016-11-01

    In this study, we proposed a Regional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (RPRA) to estimate the health risks of exposing residents to heavy metals in different environmental media and land uses. The mean and ranges of heavy metal concentrations were measured in water, sediments, soil profiles and surface soils under four land uses along the Shunde Waterway, a drinking water supply area in China. Hazard quotients (HQs) were estimated for various exposure routes and heavy metal species. Riverbank vegetable plots and private vegetable plots had 95th percentiles of total HQs greater than 3 and 1, respectively, indicating high risks of cultivation on the flooded riverbank. Vegetable uptake and leaching to groundwater were the two transfer routes of soil metals causing high health risks. Exposure risks during outdoor recreation, farming and swimming along the Shunde Waterway are theoretically safe. Arsenic and cadmium were identified as the priority pollutants that contribute the most risk among the heavy metals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the exposure route, variations in exposure parameters, mobility of heavy metals in soil, and metal concentrations all influenced the risk estimates.

  14. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  15. WASTE-PRA: a computer package for probabilistic risk assessment of shallow-land burial of low-level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, N.D.; Atwood, C.L.

    1985-12-01

    This report is a user's manual for a package of computer programs and data files to be used for probabilistic risk assessment of shallow-land burial of low-level radioactive waste. The nuclide transport pathways modeled are an unsaturated groundwater column, an aquifer, and the atmosphere. An individual or the population receives a dose commitment through shine, inhalation, ingestion, direct exposure, and/or a puncture wound. The methodology of risk assessment is based on the response surface method of uncertainty analysis. The parameters of the model for predicting dose commitment due to a release are treated as statistical variables, in order to compute statistical distributions for various contributions to the dose commitment. The likelihood of a release is similarly treated as a statistical variable. Uncertainty distributions are obtained both for the dose commitment and for the corresponding risk. Plots and printouts are produced to aid in comparing the importance of various release scenarios and in assessing the total risk of a set of scenarios. The entire methodology is illustrated by an example. Information is included on parameter uncertainties, reference site characteristics, and probabilities of release events

  16. The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed-scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, ...

  17. Development of a conceptual framework of holistic risk assessment - Landfill as a particular type of contaminated land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butt, T E; Javadi, A A; Nunns, M A; Beal, C D

    2016-11-01

    Landfills can be regarded as a particular type of contaminated land that has a potential to directly and indirectly pollute all of the four main spheres of the environment which are the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and eventually adversely impact the biosphere. Therefore, environmental risk assessment of a landfill has to be more integrated and holistic by virtue of its nature of being a multidimensional pollutant source. Despite this, although various risk assessment approaches have been adopted for landfill waste disposal sites, there are still wide-ranging knowledge gaps and limitations which need to be addressed. One important knowledge gap and limitation of current risk assessment approaches is the inability to fully identify, categorise and aggregate all individual risks from all combinations of hazards, pathways and targets/receptors (e.g. water, air, soil and biota) in connection to a certain landfill leachate and yet at any stage of the landfill cycle. So such an approach is required that could not only integrate all possible characteristics of varying scenarios but also contain the ability to establish an overall risk picture, irrespective of the lifecycle stage of the landfill (e.g. planning stage/pre-operation, in-operation or post-operation/closed). One such approach to address the wide-breadth of landfill impact risks is by developing a more holistic risk assessment methodology, whose conceptual framework is presented in this paper for landfill leachate in a whole-system format. This conceptual framework does not only draw together various constituting factors and sub-factors of risk assessment in a logical sequence and categorical order, but also indicates the "what, why, when and how" outputs of and inputs to these factors and sub-factors can be useful. The framework is designed to identify and quantify a range of risks associated with all stages of the landfill lifecycle, and yet in a more streamlined, logical, categorical and integrated

  18. Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2013-02-01

    Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. 24 CFR 1710.107 - Risks of buying land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risks of buying land. 1710.107... § 1710.107 Risks of buying land. (a) The next page shall be headed “Risks of Buying Land” and shall... Property Report portion, the following statement shall be added beneath the “Risks of Buying Land” under a...

  20. Assessing the effectiveness of sustainable land management policies for combating desertification: A data mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvati, L; Kosmas, C; Kairis, O; Karavitis, C; Acikalin, S; Belgacem, A; Solé-Benet, A; Chaker, M; Fassouli, V; Gokceoglu, C; Gungor, H; Hessel, R; Khatteli, H; Kounalaki, A; Laouina, A; Ocakoglu, F; Ouessar, M; Ritsema, C; Sghaier, M; Sonmez, H; Taamallah, H; Tezcan, L; de Vente, J; Kelly, C; Colantoni, A; Carlucci, M

    2016-12-01

    This study investigates the relationship between fine resolution, local-scale biophysical and socioeconomic contexts within which land degradation occurs, and the human responses to it. The research draws on experimental data collected under different territorial and socioeconomic conditions at 586 field sites in five Mediterranean countries (Spain, Greece, Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco). We assess the level of desertification risk under various land management practices (terracing, grazing control, prevention of wildland fires, soil erosion control measures, soil water conservation measures, sustainable farming practices, land protection measures and financial subsidies) taken as possible responses to land degradation. A data mining approach, incorporating principal component analysis, non-parametric correlations, multiple regression and canonical analysis, was developed to identify the spatial relationship between land management conditions, the socioeconomic and environmental context (described using 40 biophysical and socioeconomic indicators) and desertification risk. Our analysis identified a number of distinct relationships between the level of desertification experienced and the underlying socioeconomic context, suggesting that the effectiveness of responses to land degradation is strictly dependent on the local biophysical and socioeconomic context. Assessing the latent relationship between land management practices and the biophysical/socioeconomic attributes characterizing areas exposed to different levels of desertification risk proved to be an indirect measure of the effectiveness of field actions contrasting land degradation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Land Degradation Neutrality: Concept development, practical applications and assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga; Cowie, Annette

    2017-06-15

    The paper explores the background and scientific basis of Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN), a new paradigm reflecting the inter-related aspirations and demands of land-related sustainable development goals. The paper draws on academic literature, field observations, insight from development researchers and practitioners, professional meetings, and agency reports to describe the LDN concept and its relationship with sustainable land management (SLM). We discuss the potential for LDN to facilitate the adoption and assessment of SLM, and to provide a framework to achieve the "land degradation neutral world" goal of the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030. We present insights relevant to the implementation of LDN. These include the need to: consider quality as well as quantity of land degraded and restored; apply an ecosystem-based approach for LDN assessment; consider land degradation risks; recognize different uses of land and approaches to reach the LDN target; and define the LDN baseline and indicators. We discuss the contradictions of using two different modes for evaluating land degradation and successes in land restoration, which we name the "Anti-degradation view" and "Production-advocacy view". To harmonize these approaches we propose that LDN be considered as a phenomenon of equilibrium of the land system, in terms of the balance between deterioration and improvement of terrestrial ecosystems' qualities, functions and services. Indicators to reflect this balance can use different approaches relevant to the various countries and areas, and to the types of land use. Two examples of using this approach are described. The first shows the assessment of the state of LDN based on the homeostasis of land cover and is based on assessment of distribution of ecosystems, and the dynamics of the land cover pattern in the areas prone to land degradation. The second is based on the combination of the well-known principle of Leibig's Law of the Minimum (1843), and Shelford

  2. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  3. Regional risk assessment approaches to land planning for industrial polluted areas in China: the Hulunbeier region case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Daiqing; Zhang, Chen; Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Zhang, Haibo; Lv, Shihai; Marcomini, Antonio

    2014-04-01

    The rapid industrial development and urbanization processes that occurred in China over the past 30years has increased dramatically the consumption of natural resources and raw materials, thus exacerbating the human pressure on environmental ecosystems. In result, large scale environmental pollution of soil, natural waters and urban air were recorded. The development of effective industrial planning to support regional sustainable economy development has become an issue of serious concern for local authorities which need to select safe sites for new industrial settlements (i.e. industrial plants) according to assessment approaches considering cumulative impacts, synergistic pollution effects and risks of accidental releases. In order to support decision makers in the development of efficient and effective regional land-use plans encompassing the identification of suitable areas for new industrial settlements and areas in need of intervention measures, this study provides a spatial regional risk assessment methodology which integrates relative risk assessment (RRA) and socio-economic assessment (SEA) and makes use of spatial analysis (GIS) methodologies and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The proposed methodology was applied to the Chinese region of Hulunbeier which is located in eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, adjacent to the Republic of Mongolia. The application results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in the identification of the most hazardous and risky industrial settlements, the most vulnerable regional receptors and the regional districts which resulted to be the most relevant for intervention measures since they are characterized by high regional risk and excellent socio-economic development conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2011-01-01

    The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

  5. Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

    2017-04-01

    Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

  6. Assessing Watershed-Wildfire Risks on National Forest System Lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica R. Haas

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires can cause significant negative impacts to water quality with resultant consequences for the environment and human health and safety, as well as incurring substantial rehabilitation and water treatment costs. In this paper we will illustrate how state-of-the-art wildfire simulation modeling and geospatial risk assessment methods can be brought to bear to identify and prioritize at-risk watersheds for risk mitigation treatments, in both pre-fire and post-fire planning contexts. Risk assessment results can be particularly useful for prioritizing management of hazardous fuels to lessen the severity and likely impacts of future wildfires, where budgetary and other constraints limit the amount of area that can be treated. Specifically we generate spatially resolved estimates of wildfire likelihood and intensity, and couple that information with spatial data on watershed location and watershed erosion potential to quantify watershed exposure and risk. For a case study location we focus on National Forest System lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States. The Region houses numerous watersheds that are critically important to drinking water supplies and that have been impacted or threatened by large wildfires in recent years. Assessment results are the culmination of a broader multi-year science-management partnership intended to have direct bearing on wildfire management decision processes in the Region. Our results suggest substantial variation in the exposure of and likely effects to highly valued watersheds throughout the Region, which carry significant implications for prioritization. In particular we identified the San Juan National Forest as having the highest concentration of at-risk highly valued watersheds, as well as the greatest amount of risk that can be mitigated via hazardous fuel reduction treatments. To conclude we describe future opportunities and challenges for management of wildfire-watershed interactions.

  7. Limited risk assessment and some cost/benefit considerations for greater confinement disposal compared to shallow land burial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Lester, D.H.; Robertson, L.D.; Spaeth, M.E.; Stoddard, J.A.; Dickman, P.T.

    1984-09-01

    A limited risk assessment and some cost/benefit considerations of greater confinement disposal (GCD) compared to shallow land burial (SLB) are presented. This study is limited to an analysis of the postclosure phase of hypothetical GCD and SLB facilities. Selected release scenarios are used which bound the range of risks to a maximally exposed individual and a hypothetical population. Based on the scenario assessments, GCD had a significant risk advantage over SLB for normal exposure pathways at both humid and arid sites, particularly for the human intrusion scenario. Since GCD costs are somewhat higher than SLB, it is necessary to weigh the higher costs of GCD against the higher risks of SLB. In this regard, GCD should be pursued as an alternative to SLB for certain types of low-level waste, and as an alternative to processing for wastes requiring improved stabilization or higher integrity packaging to be compatible with SLB. There are two reasons for this conclusion. First, GCD might diminish public apprehension regarding the disposal of wastes perceived to be too hazardous for SLB. Second, GCD may be a relatively cost-effective alternative to various stabilization and packaging schemes required to meet 10 CFR 61 near-surface requirements as well as being a cost-effective alternative to deep geologic disposal. Radionuclide transport through the biosphere and resultant dose consequences were determined using the RADTRAN radionuclide transport code. 19 references, 4 figures, 5 tables

  8. Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

    2017-12-01

    Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

  9. Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Abandoned Mine Lands as Signifcant Contamination Problem in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, E.; Jordan, G.; Fugedi, U.; Bartha, A.; Kuti, L.; Heltai, G.; Kalmar, J.; Waldmann, I.; Napradean, I.; Damian, G.

    2009-04-01

    lower topographic elevations. Several mine adits, waste rock dumps are located along the main stream and a large tailings dump is found next to village Baiut just above the receiving floodplain. Predominant land cover is coniferous and mixed forests with agricultural lands on the downstream floodplain. METHODS Six samples at vaious depths were collected from the two major waste rock dumps in the headwater area, and the large tailings dump was also sampled for heavy metal source characterisation. 11 stream sediment samples were collected along the main surface water contamination transport pathway, and a further 11 soil samples were collected in 2 boreholes in the receptor floodplain in October 2008. Besides background stream sediment samples, samples from the exposed rock formations were also collected in order to capture natural background geochemistry in the studied mineralised area. The collected waste rock, stream sediment, soil and rock samples are analysed for total chemical composition (major elements and heavy metals) by ICP-MS spectroscopy, and XRD is used for the determination of mineralogical composition. Rock sample mineralogy is further investigated in thin-sections by petrological microscopy. According to EU legislation expectations, a special emphasis is taken on the determination of metal mobility from the waste rock dumps and various leaching tests are performed and compared including US EPA, USGS and ISO methods. A simple cathcment-based distributed sediment transport model (Jordan et al, 2005; Jordan et al. 2005, 2008) is used to decribe the pathways and quantities of particle-bound contamination. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Results show that (1) sediments are an efficient means for the preliminary inventory of mine contamination as a preparation for the more detailed hydrological sampling and assessment, and (2) the risk-based contamination assessment of mining sites often located in diverse geological, hydrological and landcover environment requires

  10. BURYIT/ANALYZ: a computer package for assessment of radiological risk of low-level radioactive waste land disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, J.E.; Cox, N.D.; Atwood, C.L.

    1984-11-01

    This report is a user's manual for a partially completed code for risk assessment of a low-level waste shallow-land burial site, to be used in the licensing of burial sites. This code is intended as a tool to be used for considering nuclide transport mechanisms, including atmospheric, groundwater, erosion, and infiltration to an underlying aquifer. It also calculates doses to individuals and the population through direct exposure, inhalation, and ingestion. The methodology of the risk assessment is based primarily on the response surface method of uncertainty analysis. The parameters of a model for predicting dose commitment due to a release are treated as statistical variables in order to compute statistical distributions for various dose commitment contributions. The likelihood of a release is also accounted for by statistically evaluating the arithmetic product of the dose commitment distributions with the probability of release occurrence. An example is given using the atmospheric transport pathway as modeled by a code called BURYIT. The framework for using other release pathways is described in this manual. Information on parameter uncertainties, reference site characteristics, and probabilities of release events is included

  11. Kinetic and kinematic differences between first and second landings of a drop vertical jump task: Implications for injury risk assessments✩

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Nathaniel A.; Ford, Kevin R.; Myer, Gregory D.; Hewett, Timothy E.

    2013-01-01

    Background Though the first landing of drop vertical jump task is commonly used to assess biomechanical performance measures that are associated with anterior cruciate ligament injury risk in athletes, the implications of the second landing in this task have largely been ignored. We examined the first and second landings of a drop vertical jump for differences in kinetic and kinematic behaviors at the hip and knee. Methods Acohort of 239 adolescent female basketball athletes (age = 13.6 (1.6) years) completed drop vertical jump tasks from an initial height of 31 cm. A three dimensional motion capture system recorded positional data while dual force platforms recorded ground reaction forces for each trial. Findings The first landing demonstrated greater hip adduction angle, knee abduction angle, and knee abduction moment than the second landing (P-values kinetics for both the frontal and sagittal planes (P-values < 0.044). Interpretation The results have important implications for the future use of the drop vertical jump as an assessment tool for anterior cruciate ligament injury risk behaviors in adolescent female athletes. The second landing may be a more rigorous task and provides a superior tool to evaluate sagittal plane risk factors than the first landing, which may be better suited to evaluate frontal plane risk factors. PMID:23562293

  12. Examining alternative fuel management strategies and the relative contribution of National Forest System land to wildfire risk to adjacent homes - A pilot assessment on the Sierra National Forest, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2016-01-01

    Determining the degree of risk that wildfires pose to homes, where across the landscape the risk originates, and who can best mitigate risk are integral elements of effective co-management of wildfire risk. Developing assessments and tools to help provide this information is a high priority for federal land management agencies such as the US Forest Service (...

  13. Need for realistic risk assessments at DOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1993-01-01

    Widespread environmental contamination has been documented at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. Human health risk assessments are increasingly being used to support decisions concerning remediation at these sites. Current methods for assessing risk at DOE facilities are generally excessively conservative or simplistic. Generic models, conservative parameter default values, and assumptions are often used, and unrealistic exposure and land-use scenarios are embedded in the analyses. These approaches are appropriate only as first-level screening analyses and identify contaminants or pathways that are not important in terms of risk to human health

  14. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Integrated assessment of chemical stressors and ecological impact in mixed land use stream systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne Thobo

    activities, including contaminated sites. To determine potential impacts, the chemical quality of both organic (i.e. pharmaceuticals, gasoline constituents, chlorinated solvents, and pesticides) and inorganic (i.e. metals, general water chemistry and macroions) compounds was assessed in all three stream...... multiple compounds (i.e. organic and inorganic chemical stressors) and stream compartments to locate key sources and risk drivers. The approaches and findings in this thesis could truly be helpful for management and future remediation of mixed land use stream systems....... of the different stream compartments thus comprises both temporal and spatial variation. Despite the growing understanding of the complexity, approaches for a holistic risk assessment of the potential impacts in the three stream compartments of a mixed land use stream system are still missing. To investigate...

  16. Methods for land use impact assessment: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perminova, Tataina; Sirina, Natalia; Laratte, Bertrand; Baranovskaya, Natalia; Rikhvanov, Leonid

    2016-01-01

    Many types of methods to assess land use impact have been developed. Nevertheless a systematic synthesis of all these approaches is necessary to highlight the most commonly used and most effective methods. Given the growing interest in this area of research, a review of the different methods of assessing land use impact (LUI) was performed using bibliometric analysis. One hundred eighty seven articles of agricultural and biological science, and environmental sciences were examined. According to our results, the most frequently used land use assessment methods are Life-Cycle Assessment, Material Flow Analysis/Input–Output Analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment and Ecological Footprint. Comparison of the methods allowed their specific features to be identified and to arrive at the conclusion that a combination of several methods is the best basis for a comprehensive analysis of land use impact assessment. - Highlights: • We identified the most frequently used methods in land use impact assessment. • A comparison of the methods based on several criteria was carried out. • Agricultural land use is by far the most common area of study within the methods. • Incentive driven methods, like LCA, arouse the most interest in this field.

  17. Methods for land use impact assessment: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perminova, Tataina, E-mail: tatiana.perminova@utt.fr [Research Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, CNRS UMR 6281, 12 Rue Marie Curie CS 42060, F-10004 Troyes Cedex (France); Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Avenue, 634050 Tomsk (Russian Federation); Sirina, Natalia, E-mail: natalia.sirina@utt.fr [Research Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, CNRS UMR 6281, 12 Rue Marie Curie CS 42060, F-10004 Troyes Cedex (France); Laratte, Bertrand, E-mail: bertrand.laratte@utt.fr [Research Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, CNRS UMR 6281, 12 Rue Marie Curie CS 42060, F-10004 Troyes Cedex (France); Baranovskaya, Natalia, E-mail: natalya.baranovs@mail.ru [Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Avenue, 634050 Tomsk (Russian Federation); Rikhvanov, Leonid, E-mail: rikhvanov@tpu.ru [Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Avenue, 634050 Tomsk (Russian Federation)

    2016-09-15

    Many types of methods to assess land use impact have been developed. Nevertheless a systematic synthesis of all these approaches is necessary to highlight the most commonly used and most effective methods. Given the growing interest in this area of research, a review of the different methods of assessing land use impact (LUI) was performed using bibliometric analysis. One hundred eighty seven articles of agricultural and biological science, and environmental sciences were examined. According to our results, the most frequently used land use assessment methods are Life-Cycle Assessment, Material Flow Analysis/Input–Output Analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment and Ecological Footprint. Comparison of the methods allowed their specific features to be identified and to arrive at the conclusion that a combination of several methods is the best basis for a comprehensive analysis of land use impact assessment. - Highlights: • We identified the most frequently used methods in land use impact assessment. • A comparison of the methods based on several criteria was carried out. • Agricultural land use is by far the most common area of study within the methods. • Incentive driven methods, like LCA, arouse the most interest in this field.

  18. Risk assessment of major hazards and its application in urban planning: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yafei; Liu, Mao

    2012-03-01

    With the rapid development of industry in China, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and many are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances. Accidents such as fire, explosion, and toxic diffusion inevitably happen. Accidents resulting from these major hazards in cities cause a large number of casualties and property losses. It is increasingly important to analyze the risk of major hazards in cities realistically and to suitably plan and utilize the surrounding land based on the risk analysis results, thereby reducing the hazards. A theoretical system for risk assessment of major hazards in cities is proposed in this article, and the major hazard risk for the entire city is analyzed quantitatively. Risks of various major accidents are considered together, superposition effect is analyzed, individual risk contours of the entire city are drawn out, and the level of risk in the city is assessed using "as low as reasonably practicable" guidelines. After the entire city's individual risk distribution is obtained, risk zones are divided according to corresponding individual risk value of HSE, and land-use planning suggestions are proposed. Finally, a city in China is used as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process of the city's major hazard and its application in urban land-use planning. The proposed method has a certain theoretical and practical significance in establishing and improving risk analysis of major hazard and urban land-use planning. On the one hand, major urban public risk is avoided; further, the land is utilized in the best possible way in order to obtain the maximum benefit from its use. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  20. Data quality objectives for two risk assessments at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, N.K.; Clark, S.W.; Tranbarger, R.K.; Roeck, F.V.

    1996-01-01

    The opportunity for innovative thinking prevails at the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. Two projects, in particular, challenged risk assessment staff. They are: (1) a combined Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA)/Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) risk assessment, and (2) developing a risk assessment for a mixed-waste disposal facility. The combined CERCLA/RCRA risk assessment involved establishing data quality objectives (DQO) either to meet clean closure for a RCRA treatment, storage and/or disposal facility (TSD) or (if the former was not possible) to conform to goals established for industrial land use for Hanford Past-Practice Strategy (HPPS) sites. Radionuclide analysis was reduced by 60 percent through the DQO process

  1. Lead concentrations and risk exposure assessment in surface soils ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lead concentrations and risk exposure assessment in surface soils at residential lands previously used for auto-mechanic and auto-welding activities in Port Harcourt, Nigeria. ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management.

  2. Development of a conceptual framework of holistic risk assessment — Landfill as a particular type of contaminated land

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butt, T.E., E-mail: t.e.butt@outlook.com [School of Architecture, Built & Natural Environments (SABNE), Faculty of Architecture, Computing & Engineering (FACE), Swansea Metropolitan, University of Wales Trinity Saint David - UWTSD, Mount Pleasant Campus, Swansea, SA1 6ED, Wales (United Kingdom); Javadi, A.A. [Department of Engineering, College of Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences (CEMPS), University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QF, England (United Kingdom); Nunns, M.A. [Environment Agency, Bromholme Lane, Brampton, Huntingdon, PE28 4NE, England (United Kingdom); Beal, C.D. [Smart Water Research Centre (SWRC) and School of Engineering, Griffith University, Southport, Queensland 4222 (Australia)

    2016-11-01

    Landfills can be regarded as a particular type of contaminated land that has a potential to directly and indirectly pollute all of the four main spheres of the environment which are the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and eventually adversely impact the biosphere. Therefore, environmental risk assessment of a landfill has to be more integrated and holistic by virtue of its nature of being a multidimensional pollutant source. Despite this, although various risk assessment approaches have been adopted for landfill waste disposal sites, there are still wide-ranging knowledge gaps and limitations which need to be addressed. One important knowledge gap and limitation of current risk assessment approaches is the inability to fully identify, categorise and aggregate all individual risks from all combinations of hazards, pathways and targets/receptors (e.g. water, air, soil and biota) in connection to a certain landfill leachate and yet at any stage of the landfill cycle. So such an approach is required that could not only integrate all possible characteristics of varying scenarios but also contain the ability to establish an overall risk picture, irrespective of the lifecycle stage of the landfill (e.g. planning stage/pre-operation, in-operation or post-operation/closed). One such approach to address the wide-breadth of landfill impact risks is by developing a more holistic risk assessment methodology, whose conceptual framework is presented in this paper for landfill leachate in a whole-system format. This conceptual framework does not only draw together various constituting factors and sub-factors of risk assessment in a logical sequence and categorical order, but also indicates the “what, why, when and how” outputs of and inputs to these factors and sub-factors can be useful. The framework is designed to identify and quantify a range of risks associated with all stages of the landfill lifecycle, and yet in a more streamlined, logical, categorical and

  3. Development of a conceptual framework of holistic risk assessment — Landfill as a particular type of contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butt, T.E.; Javadi, A.A.; Nunns, M.A.; Beal, C.D.

    2016-01-01

    Landfills can be regarded as a particular type of contaminated land that has a potential to directly and indirectly pollute all of the four main spheres of the environment which are the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and eventually adversely impact the biosphere. Therefore, environmental risk assessment of a landfill has to be more integrated and holistic by virtue of its nature of being a multidimensional pollutant source. Despite this, although various risk assessment approaches have been adopted for landfill waste disposal sites, there are still wide-ranging knowledge gaps and limitations which need to be addressed. One important knowledge gap and limitation of current risk assessment approaches is the inability to fully identify, categorise and aggregate all individual risks from all combinations of hazards, pathways and targets/receptors (e.g. water, air, soil and biota) in connection to a certain landfill leachate and yet at any stage of the landfill cycle. So such an approach is required that could not only integrate all possible characteristics of varying scenarios but also contain the ability to establish an overall risk picture, irrespective of the lifecycle stage of the landfill (e.g. planning stage/pre-operation, in-operation or post-operation/closed). One such approach to address the wide-breadth of landfill impact risks is by developing a more holistic risk assessment methodology, whose conceptual framework is presented in this paper for landfill leachate in a whole-system format. This conceptual framework does not only draw together various constituting factors and sub-factors of risk assessment in a logical sequence and categorical order, but also indicates the “what, why, when and how” outputs of and inputs to these factors and sub-factors can be useful. The framework is designed to identify and quantify a range of risks associated with all stages of the landfill lifecycle, and yet in a more streamlined, logical, categorical and

  4. PBDEs in Italian sewage sludge and environmental risk of using sewage sludge for land application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cincinelli, Alessandra; Martellini, Tania; Misuri, Lorenza; Lanciotti, Eudes; Sweetman, Andy; Laschi, Serena; Palchetti, Ilaria

    2012-01-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were determined in sewage sludge samples collected from eight Italian wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) between June 2009 and March 2010. Total PBDE concentrations ranged from 158.3 to 9427 ng g −1 dw, while deca-BDE (BDE-209) (concentrations ranging from 130.6 to 9411 ng g −1 dw) dominated the congener profile in all the samples, contributing between 77% and 99.8% of total PBDE. The suitability of using a magnetic particle enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) to analyse PBDEs in sewage sludge was also tested. The ELISA results, expressed as BDE-47 equivalents, were well correlated with those obtained by GC–NCI–MS, with correlation coefficients (r 2 ) of 0.899 and 0.959, depending on the extraction procedure adopted. The risk assessment of PBDEs in sewage sludge addressed to land application was calculated. PEC soil values compared to the relative PNEC soil for penta and deca-BDE suggests that there is a low risk to the soil environment. - Highlights: ► PBDEs in sewage sludge were determined in eight Italian WWTPs for the first time. ► PBDEs concentrations showed differences between the eight investigated WWTPs. ► Deca-BDE (BDE-209) was the dominant congener in all samples. ► The suitability of using ELISA method to analyse PBDEs in sewage sludge was tested. ► The risk assessment of using sewage sludge for land application was evaluated. - Determination of PBDEs in sewage sludge by GC–NCI–MS and ELISA test and risk assessment when sewage sludge is used for land application.

  5. Disposal Situation of Sewage Sludge from Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs and Assessment of the Ecological Risk of Heavy Metals for Its Land Use in Shanxi, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baoling Duan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Land use of sewage sludge is the primary disposal method in Shanxi, accounting for 42.66% of all. To determine the ecological risk of heavy metals in sewage sludge, contents of seven heavy metals in sewage sludge from 9 municipal waste water treatment plants (WWTPs that had the highest application for land use were determined. The order of the measured concentrations was: Zn > Cr > Cu > Ni > Pb > As > Cd, and all heavy metals contents were within the threshold limit values of the Chinese Control Standards for Pollutants in Sludge from Agriculture Use (GB4284-84. Four indices were used to assess the pollution and the ecological risk of heavy metals. By the mean values of the geoaccumulation index (Igeo, heavy metals were ranked in the following order: Cd > Zn > Cu > As > Cr > Ni > Pb. The values showed that the pollution of Zn in station 3 and Cd in station 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 and 9 were heavily; Cu in station 8 and 9, Zn in station 1, 2, 4, 8 and 9 and Cd in station 5 and 7 were moderately to heavily, and the accumulation of other heavy metals were not significant. The single-factor pollution index (PI suggested that none of the stations had heavy metals contamination, except for Cu in station 9, Zn in station 3 and 8, and Cd in station 1 and 9, which were at a moderate level. According to the results of the Nemerow’s synthetic pollution index (PN, sewage sludge from all stations was safe for land use with respect to heavy metals contamination, except for stations 3, 8 and 9, which were at the warning line. The monomial potential ecological risk coefficient (Eri revealed that heavy metals ecological risks in most stations were low. However, station 9 had a moderate risk for Cu; station 6 had a moderate risk, stations 5 and 7 had high risk, other stations had very high risk for Cd. According to the results of the potential ecological risk index (RI, station 1, 8 and 9 had high risk; station 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 had a moderate risk, and station 6 had a

  6. Disposal Situation of Sewage Sludge from Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs) and Assessment of the Ecological Risk of Heavy Metals for Its Land Use in Shanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Baoling; Zhang, Wuping; Zheng, Haixia; Wu, Chunyan; Zhang, Qiang; Bu, Yushan

    2017-07-21

    Land use of sewage sludge is the primary disposal method in Shanxi, accounting for 42.66% of all. To determine the ecological risk of heavy metals in sewage sludge, contents of seven heavy metals in sewage sludge from 9 municipal waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) that had the highest application for land use were determined. The order of the measured concentrations was: Zn > Cr > Cu > Ni > Pb > As > Cd, and all heavy metals contents were within the threshold limit values of the Chinese Control Standards for Pollutants in Sludge from Agriculture Use (GB4284-84). Four indices were used to assess the pollution and the ecological risk of heavy metals. By the mean values of the geoaccumulation index (I geo ), heavy metals were ranked in the following order: Cd > Zn > Cu > As > Cr > Ni > Pb. The values showed that the pollution of Zn in station 3 and Cd in station 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 and 9 were heavily; Cu in station 8 and 9, Zn in station 1, 2, 4, 8 and 9 and Cd in station 5 and 7 were moderately to heavily, and the accumulation of other heavy metals were not significant. The single-factor pollution index (PI) suggested that none of the stations had heavy metals contamination, except for Cu in station 9, Zn in station 3 and 8, and Cd in station 1 and 9, which were at a moderate level. According to the results of the Nemerow's synthetic pollution index (PN), sewage sludge from all stations was safe for land use with respect to heavy metals contamination, except for stations 3, 8 and 9, which were at the warning line. The monomial potential ecological risk coefficient (Eri) revealed that heavy metals ecological risks in most stations were low. However, station 9 had a moderate risk for Cu; station 6 had a moderate risk, stations 5 and 7 had high risk, other stations had very high risk for Cd. According to the results of the potential ecological risk index (RI), station 1, 8 and 9 had high risk; station 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 had a moderate risk, and station 6 had a low risk. The

  7. Risk-maps informing land-use planning processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basta, Claudia; Neuvel, Jeroen M.M.; Zlatanova, Sisi; Ale, Ben

    2007-01-01

    The definition of safety distances as required by Art 12 of the Seveso II Directive on dangerous substances (96/82/EC) is necessary to minimize the consequences of potential major accidents. As they affect the land-use destinations of involved areas, safety distances can be considered as risk tolerability criteria with a territorial reflection. Recent studies explored the suitability of using Geographical Information System technologies to support their elaboration and visual rendering. In particular, the elaboration of GIS 'risk-maps' has been recognized as functional to two objectives: connecting spatial planners and safety experts during decision making processes and communicating risk to non-experts audiences. In order to elaborate on these findings and to verify their reflection on European practices, the article presents the result of a comparative study between the United Kingdom and the Netherlands recent developments. Their land-use planning practices for areas falling under Seveso II requirements are explored. The role of GIS risk-maps within decisional processes is analyzed and the reflection on the transparency and accessibility of risk-information is commented. Recommendations for further developments are given

  8. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

  9. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  10. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  11. Local topographic wetness indices predict household malaria risk better than land-use and land-cover in the western Kenya highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Justin M; Ernst, Kacey C; Lindblade, Kim A; Vulule, John M; John, Chandy C; Wilson, Mark L

    2010-11-16

    Identification of high-risk malaria foci can help enhance surveillance or control activities in regions where they are most needed. Associations between malaria risk and land-use/land-cover are well-recognized, but these environmental characteristics are closely interrelated with the land's topography (e.g., hills, valleys, elevation), which also influences malaria risk strongly. Parsing the individual contributions of land-cover/land-use variables to malaria risk requires examining these associations in the context of their topographic landscape. This study examined whether environmental factors like land-cover, land-use, and urban density improved malaria risk prediction based solely on the topographically-determined context, as measured by the topographic wetness index. The topographic wetness index, an estimate of predicted water accumulation in a defined area, was generated from a digital terrain model of the landscape surrounding households in two neighbouring western Kenyan highland communities. Variables determined to best encompass the variance in this topographic wetness surface were calculated at a household level. Land-cover/land-use information was extracted from a high-resolution satellite image using an object-based classification method. Topographic and land-cover variables were used individually and in combination to predict household-level malaria in the communities through an iterative split-sample model fitting and testing procedure. Models with only topographic variables were compared to those with additional predictive factors related to land-cover/land-use to investigate whether these environmental factors improved prediction of malaria based on the shape of the land alone. Variables related to topographic wetness proved most useful in predicting the households of individuals contracting malaria in this region of rugged terrain. Other variables related to human modification of the environment also demonstrated clear associations with

  12. Local topographic wetness indices predict household malaria risk better than land-use and land-cover in the western Kenya highlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vulule John M

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identification of high-risk malaria foci can help enhance surveillance or control activities in regions where they are most needed. Associations between malaria risk and land-use/land-cover are well-recognized, but these environmental characteristics are closely interrelated with the land's topography (e.g., hills, valleys, elevation, which also influences malaria risk strongly. Parsing the individual contributions of land-cover/land-use variables to malaria risk requires examining these associations in the context of their topographic landscape. This study examined whether environmental factors like land-cover, land-use, and urban density improved malaria risk prediction based solely on the topographically-determined context, as measured by the topographic wetness index. Methods The topographic wetness index, an estimate of predicted water accumulation in a defined area, was generated from a digital terrain model of the landscape surrounding households in two neighbouring western Kenyan highland communities. Variables determined to best encompass the variance in this topographic wetness surface were calculated at a household level. Land-cover/land-use information was extracted from a high-resolution satellite image using an object-based classification method. Topographic and land-cover variables were used individually and in combination to predict household-level malaria in the communities through an iterative split-sample model fitting and testing procedure. Models with only topographic variables were compared to those with additional predictive factors related to land-cover/land-use to investigate whether these environmental factors improved prediction of malaria based on the shape of the land alone. Results Variables related to topographic wetness proved most useful in predicting the households of individuals contracting malaria in this region of rugged terrain. Other variables related to human modification of the

  13. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

  14. Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

    2014-01-01

    A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

  15. Atmospheric Risk Assessment for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Allen; Vasavada, Ashwin; Cianciolo, Alicia; Barnes, Jeff; Tyler, Dan; Hinson, David; Lewis, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    In 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will pioneer the next generation of robotic Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems, by delivering the largest and most capable rover to date to the surface of Mars. As with previous Mars landers, atmospheric conditions during entry, descent, and landing directly impact the performance of MSL's EDL system. While the vehicle's novel guided entry system allows it to "fly out" a range of atmospheric uncertainties, its trajectory through the atmosphere creates a variety of atmospheric sensitivities not present on previous Mars entry systems and landers. Given the mission's stringent landing capability requirements, understanding the atmosphere state and spacecraft sensitivities takes on heightened importance. MSL's guided entry trajectory differs significantly from recent Mars landers and includes events that generate different atmospheric sensitivities than past missions. The existence of these sensitivities and general advancement in the state of Mars atmospheric knowledge has led the MSL team to employ new atmosphere modeling techniques in addition to past practices. A joint EDL engineering and Mars atmosphere science and modeling team has been created to identify the key system sensitivities, gather available atmospheric data sets, develop relevant atmosphere models, and formulate methods to integrate atmosphere information into EDL performance assessments. The team consists of EDL engineers, project science staff, and Mars atmospheric scientists from a variety of institutions. This paper provides an overview of the system performance sensitivities that have driven the atmosphere modeling approach, discusses the atmosphere data sets and models employed by the team as a result of the identified sensitivities, and introduces the tools used to translate atmospheric knowledge into quantitative EDL performance assessments.

  16. Risk-maps informing land-use planning processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basta, Claudia [DIRC Sustainable Urban Areas, Section of Material Science and Sustainable Construction, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2600 GA, Delft (Netherlands)]. E-mail: c.basta@citg.tudelft.nl; Neuvel, Jeroen M.M. [Land Use Planning, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, Postbus 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)]. E-mail: jeroen.neuvel@wur.nl; Zlatanova, Sisi [Section GISt, OTB Research Institute for Housing, Urban and Mobility Studies, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 9, P.O. Box 5030, 2600 GA, Delft (Netherlands)]. E-mail: s.zlatanova@otb.tudelft.nl; Ale, Ben [Safety Science Group, TBM Faculty, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2600 GA, Delft (Netherlands)

    2007-06-25

    The definition of safety distances as required by Art 12 of the Seveso II Directive on dangerous substances (96/82/EC) is necessary to minimize the consequences of potential major accidents. As they affect the land-use destinations of involved areas, safety distances can be considered as risk tolerability criteria with a territorial reflection. Recent studies explored the suitability of using Geographical Information System technologies to support their elaboration and visual rendering. In particular, the elaboration of GIS 'risk-maps' has been recognized as functional to two objectives: connecting spatial planners and safety experts during decision making processes and communicating risk to non-experts audiences. In order to elaborate on these findings and to verify their reflection on European practices, the article presents the result of a comparative study between the United Kingdom and the Netherlands recent developments. Their land-use planning practices for areas falling under Seveso II requirements are explored. The role of GIS risk-maps within decisional processes is analyzed and the reflection on the transparency and accessibility of risk-information is commented. Recommendations for further developments are given.

  17. The effects of lead sources on oral bioaccessibility in soil and implications for contaminated land risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, Sherry; McIlwaine, Rebekka; Ofterdinger, Ulrich; Cox, Siobhan F.; McKinley, Jennifer M.; Doherty, Rory; Wragg, Joanna; Cave, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Lead (Pb) is a non-threshold toxin capable of inducing toxic effects at any blood level but availability of soil screening criteria for assessing potential health risks is limited. The oral bioaccessibility of Pb in 163 soil samples was attributed to sources through solubility estimation and domain identification. Samples were extracted following the Unified BARGE Method. Urban, mineralisation, peat and granite domains accounted for elevated Pb concentrations compared to rural samples. High Pb solubility explained moderate-high gastric (G) bioaccessible fractions throughout the study area. Higher maximum G concentrations were measured in urban (97.6 mg kg −1 ) and mineralisation (199.8 mg kg −1 ) domains. Higher average G concentrations occurred in mineralisation (36.4 mg kg −1 ) and granite (36.0 mg kg −1 ) domains. Findings suggest diffuse anthropogenic and widespread geogenic contamination could be capable of presenting health risks, having implications for land management decisions in jurisdictions where guidance advises these forms of pollution should not be regarded as contaminated land. - Highlights: • Urban, mineralisation, peat and granite sources accounted for elevated Pb in soil. • Pb solubility was higher in urban and mineralisation domains. • Higher Pb solubility resulted in high oral bioaccessibility compared to rural areas. • Diffuse background and natural Pb contamination could pose human health risks. • Contaminated land policy should not dismiss diffuse or geogenic pollution sources. - Diffuse and widespread Pb sources displayed high oral bioaccessibility, providing implications for contaminated land risk assessment guidance that excludes these forms of pollution

  18. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  19. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-01

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  20. Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei

    2015-04-01

    In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

  1. Development and application of bioassays for a site-specific risk assessment of contaminated soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rila, J.-P.

    2008-01-01

    Soil risk assessment based on generic approaches is accompanied by a large number of uncertainties. In site-specific risk assessment aimed at identifying the actual effects on the ecosystem by using e.g. bioassays in soil elutriates and taking into account land-use these uncertainties can be largely

  2. Land Suitability Assessment for Pineapple Production in the A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    linking land resources assessment to any land use decision-making process. like elsewhere, land ... managers as decision-support tools, for instance, to outline the most suitable land areas for subsidy ...... increase rational decisions. In this ..... essentially dynamic. it is pertinent that land suitability analysis is framed within an ...

  3. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  4. Urban land use, air toxics and public health: Assessing hazardous exposures at the neighborhood scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corburn, Jason

    2007-01-01

    Land use data are increasingly understood as important indicators of potential environmental health risk in urban areas where micro-scale or neighborhood level hazard exposure data are not routinely collected. This paper aims to offer a method for estimating the distribution of air toxics in urban neighborhoods using land use information because actual air monitoring data rarely exist at this scale. Using Geographic Information System spatial modeling tools, we estimate air toxics concentrations across neighborhoods in New York City and statistically compare our model with the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Air Toxic Assessment and air monitoring data across three NYC neighborhoods. We conclude that land use data can act as a good proxy for estimating neighborhood scale air toxics, particularly in the absence of monitoring data. In addition, the paper suggests that land use data can expand the reach of environmental impact assessments that routinely exclude analyses of potential exposures to urban air toxics at the neighborhood scale

  5. Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

    2014-12-01

    Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

  6. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

  7. A regional approach to the environmental risk assessment in the Campania region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minolfi, Giulia; Albanese, Stefano; Lima, Annamaria; De Vivo, Benedetto

    2016-04-01

    Environmental risk assessment and analysis has a crucial role for guaranteeing the safety of the population, especially in intensive urbanized and industrialized areas, such as the Campania region (Italy). In Italy, since 2006, the human health risk assessment has become mandatory for contaminated soil and waters at contaminated sites. While traditional risk assessment procedures are usually run at site specific level (brownfields), with this work we would like to introduce a freshly developed method to assess risks at regional level by means of GIS, considering the hazard due to the presence in the environment of a contaminated media, the land use variability and the actual distribution of the population. 3535 top soils were collected across the whole Campania region (Italy) with a sampling density of 1 sample/4 km2. Samples were analyzed at ACME Analytical Lab. Ltd (Vancouver, Canada), to determine the concentration of 52 elements, with a combined methods of ICP-MS and ICP-ES following an aqua regia digestion. After a detailed statistical data analysis and geochemical mapping, we reclassified the interpolated maps of some potentially toxic elements (Sb, As, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se, Sn, Tl, V, Zn), in accordance with the Italian environmental law (D.Lgs 152/2006), on the base of the trigger and action limits (CSC) for human safety established by this latter. The obtained maps were summed up in the GIS environment in order to get a cumulative map of the potential hazard for the topsoils of Campania region. Considering that environmental risk for the population is strongly influenced by the exposure pathways followed by contaminants to reach the human target, in the case of Campania region we evaluated as relevant pathways both the soil/dust and food ingestion. Furthermore to consider the influence of the land use in the onset of the risk, each land use type was associated with a specific value of a Land Use Risk Coefficient (LURC) which is also dependent on

  8. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  9. Dynamic Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Land Use in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Based on Landscape Patterns and Spatial Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahui Fan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Land use profoundly changes the terrestrial ecosystem and landscape patterns, and these changes reveal the extent and scope of the ecological influence of land use on the terrestrial ecosystem. The study area selected for this research was the middle reaches of the Heihe River. Based on land use data (1986, 2000, and 2014, we proposed an ecological risk index of land use by combining a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragility index. An exponential model was selected to perform kriging interpolation, as well as spatial autocorrelations and semivariance analyses which could reveal the spatial aggregation patterns. The results indicated that the ecological risk of the middle reaches of the Heihe River was generally high, and higher in the northwest. The high values of the ecological risk index (ERI tended to decrease, and the low ERI values tended to increase. Positive spatial autocorrelations and a prominent scale-dependence were observed among the ERI values. The main hot areas with High-High local autocorrelations were located in the north, and the cold areas with low-low local autocorrelations were primarily located in the middle corridor plain and Qilian Mountains. From 1986 to 2014, low and relatively low ecological risk areas decreased while relatively high risk areas expanded. A middle level of ecological risk was observed in Ganzhou and Minle counties. Shandan County presented a serious polarization, with high ecological risk areas observed in the north and low ecological risk areas observed in the southern Shandan horse farm. In order to lower the eco-risk and achieve the sustainability of land use, these results suggest policies to strictly control the oasis expansion and the occupation of farmland for urbanization. Some inefficient farmland should transform into grassland in appropriate cases.

  10. Land change monitoring, assessment, and projection (LCMAP) revolutionizes land cover and land change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Steven

    2017-05-02

    When nature and humanity change Earth’s landscapes - through flood or fire, public policy, natural resources management, or economic development - the results are often dramatic and lasting.Wildfires can reshape ecosystems. Hurricanes with names like Sandy or Katrina will howl for days while altering the landscape for years. One growing season in the evolution of drought-resistant genetics can transform semiarid landscapes into farm fields.In the past, valuable land cover maps created for understanding the effects of those events - whether changes in wildlife habitat, water-quality impacts, or the role land use and land cover play in affecting weather and climate - came out at best every 5 to 7 years. Those high quality, high resolution maps were good, but users always craved more: even higher quality data, additional land cover and land change variables, more detailed legends, and most importantly, more frequent land change information.Now a bold new initiative called Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) promises to fulfill that demand.Developed at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, LCMAP provides definitive, timely information on how, why, and where the planet is changing. LCMAP’s continuous monitoring process can detect changes as they happen every day that Landsat satellites acquire clear observations. The result will be to place near real-time information in the hands of land and resource managers who need to understand the effects these changes have on landscapes.

  11. Soil erosion risk assessment using interviews, empirical soil erosion modeling (RUSLE) and fallout radionuclides in a volcanic crater lake watershed subjected to land use change, western Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Crop, Wannes; Ryken, Nick; Tomma Okuonzia, Judith; Van Ranst, Eric; Baert, Geert; Boeckx, Pascal; Verschuren, Dirk; Verdoodt, Ann

    2017-04-01

    Population pressure results in conversion of natural vegetation to cropland within the western Ugandan crater lake watersheds. These watersheds however are particularly prone to soil degradation and erosion because of the high rainfall intensity and steep topography. Increased soil erosion losses expose the aquatic ecosystems to excessive nutrient loading. In this study, the Katinda crater lake watershed, which is already heavily impacted by agricultural land use, was selected for an explorative study on its (top)soil characteristics - given the general lack of data on soils within these watersheds - as well as an assessment of soil erosion risks. Using group discussions and structured interviews, the local land users' perceptions on land use, soil quality, soil erosion and lake ecology were compiled. Datasets on rainfall, topsoil characteristics, slope gradient and length, and land use were collected. Subsequently a RUSLE erosion model was run. Results from this empirical erosion modeling approach were validated against soil erosion estimates based on 137Cs measurements.

  12. Accounting for pH heterogeneity and variability in modelling human health risks from cadmium in contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

    2009-01-01

    The authors have previously published a methodology which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment, incorporating uncertainty, of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land. The model assumes a constant soil to plant concentration factor (CF veg ) when calculating intake of contaminants. This model is modified here to enhance its use in a situation where CF veg varies according to soil pH, as is the case for cadmium. The original methodology uses sequential indicator simulation (SIS) to map soil concentration estimates for one contaminant across a site. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. The proposed improvement involves not only the geostatistical estimation of the contaminant concentration, but also that of soil pH, which in turn leads to a variable CF veg estimate which influences the human intake results. The results presented demonstrate that taking pH into account can influence the outcome of the risk assessment greatly. It is proposed that a similar adaptation could be used for other combinations of soil variables which influence CF veg .

  13. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  14. Risk Scan: A Review of Risk Assessment Capability and Maturity within the Canadian Safety and Security Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    SCADA / ICS Cyber Test Lab initiated in 2013 Psychosocial – academic research exists,; opportunity for sharing and developing impact assessment...ecosystems and species at risk), accidents / system failure (rail; pipelines ; ferries CSSP strategy for the North Focus on regional l(and local) problem...Guidance; business planning; environmental scan; proposal evaluation; and performance measurement Program Risk Management – Guidelines for project

  15. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McVeigh, C.A.

    1996-01-01

    An overview of various aspects of mergers and acquisition transactions in the petroleum industry were presented. Incentives to mergers and acquisitions were reviewed and discussed, among them value opportunity, critical size, incremental tax pools, financial distress, shareholder dissatisfaction, strategic infrastructure position, complementary assets, and undeveloped land inventory. Current trends in mergers and acquisitions were highlighted. An industry checklist for risk assessments discussing financial position, engineering forecasts, and taxation was also included

  16. The impact of land use and spatial changes on desertification risk in degraded areas in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saowanee Wijitkosum

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Land use, which relates to land cover, is one of the influential factors associated with desertification risk. A study was conducted on the impact of land use and spatial changes on desertification risk in Huay Sai Royal Development Study Centre in southern Thailand. The study used spatial analysis and the MEDALUS model to investigate the extent of land degradation, land use changes and desertification risk in the study area from 1990 to 2010. The Study examined three groups of factors: soils, climate and human activity to classify the severity of desertification risk. The study findings indicate that most areas (74.4% in the Huay Sai area were at high risk of desertification, and the risk remained high (77.2% in 2010. However, the areas classified as at severe risk of desertification decreased at 4.2% per annum. The study finds that land use changes influenced desertification risk.

  17. Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Land use change has large effects on natural ecosystems, which is considered to be the main factor in eco-environment change. We analyzed the future characters of land use change by the CLUE-S model and explored landscape ecological risk responses to land use change by the landscape ecological risk index method. Using the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, we simulated future land use change from 2010 to 2030 under 3 scenarios (i.e., trend, high economic growth, and ecological security, and identified the hotspots of land use change. Afterward, we quantitatively investigated the degree of land use development and landscape ecological risk patterns that have occured since 2000 and that are expected to occur until 2030. Results revealed that, under the three scenarios, construction land and forest are expanding mainly at the expense of agriculture land and grassland. The hotspots of land use change are located in the vicinity of Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District of Chengde City in the midstream of the Luanhe River Basin, where urbanization has been strong since 2000 and is projected to continue that way until 2030. During this time period, hotspots of land use development have been gradually transferring from the downstream to the midstream since 2000 and, again, is expected to continue that way until 2030, which will impact the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk. We found that the landscape ecological risk of the entire basin has shown a negative trend. However, a few areas still have serious ecological risk, which are mainly located in the east of upstream (Duolun County and Weichang County, the middle region (Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District, Chengde County, and Xinglong County, and the downstream (Qinglong County. These can provide key information for land use management, and for helping to prepare future eco-environmental policies in the Luanhe River Basin.

  18. Assessing and analysing the impact of land take pressures on arable land

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Aksoy

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Land, and in particular soil, is a finite and essentially non-renewable resource. Across the European Union, land take, i.e. the increase of settlement area over time, annually consumes more than 1000 km2 of which half is actually sealed and hence lost under impermeable surfaces. Land take, and in particular soil sealing, has already been identified as one of the major soil threats in the 2006 European Commission Communication Towards a Thematic Strategy on Soil Protection and the Soil Thematic Strategy and has been confirmed as such in the report on the implementation of this strategy. The aim of this study is to relate the potential of land for a particular use in a given region with the actual land use. This allows evaluating whether land (especially the soil dimension is used according to its (theoretical potential. To this aim, the impact of several land cover flows related to urban development on soils with good, average, and poor production potentials were assessed and mapped. Thus, the amount and quality (potential for agricultural production of arable land lost between the years 2000 and 2006 was identified. In addition, areas with high productivity potential around urban areas, indicating areas of potential future land use conflicts for Europe, were identified.

  19. Health risk assessment of heavy metals through the consumption of food crops fertilized by biosolids: A probabilistic-based analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosseini Koupaie, E.; Eskicioglu, C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • No potential health risk of land application of the regional biosolids. • More realistic risk assessment via probabilistic approach than that of deterministic. • Increasing the total hazard index with increasing fertilizer land application rate. • Significant effect of long-term biosolids land application of hazard index. • Greater contribution of rice ingestion than vegetable ingestion on hazard index. - Abstract: The objective of this study was to perform a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to assess the health risk of Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), and Zinc (Zn) through the consumption of food crops grown on farm lands fertilized by biosolids. The risk analysis was conducted using 8 years of historical heavy metal data (2005–2013) of the municipal biosolids generated by a nearby treatment facility considering one-time and long-term biosolids land application scenarios for a range of 5–100 t/ha fertilizer application rate. The 95th percentile of the hazard index (HI) increased from 0.124 to 0.179 when the rate of fertilizer application increased from 5 to 100 t/ha at one-time biosolids land application. The HI at long-term biosolids land application was also found 1.3 and 1.9 times greater than that of one-time land application at fertilizer application rates of 5 and 100 t/ha, respectively. Rice ingestion had more contribution to the HI than vegetable ingestion. Cd and Cu were also found to have more contribution to the health risk associated to vegetable and rice ingestion, respectively. Results indicated no potential risk to the human health even at long-term biosolids land application scenario at 100 t/ha fertilizer application rate.

  20. Health risk assessment of heavy metals through the consumption of food crops fertilized by biosolids: A probabilistic-based analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosseini Koupaie, E., E-mail: ehssan.hosseini.k@gmail.com; Eskicioglu, C., E-mail: cigdem.eskicioglu@ubc.ca

    2015-12-30

    Highlights: • No potential health risk of land application of the regional biosolids. • More realistic risk assessment via probabilistic approach than that of deterministic. • Increasing the total hazard index with increasing fertilizer land application rate. • Significant effect of long-term biosolids land application of hazard index. • Greater contribution of rice ingestion than vegetable ingestion on hazard index. - Abstract: The objective of this study was to perform a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to assess the health risk of Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), and Zinc (Zn) through the consumption of food crops grown on farm lands fertilized by biosolids. The risk analysis was conducted using 8 years of historical heavy metal data (2005–2013) of the municipal biosolids generated by a nearby treatment facility considering one-time and long-term biosolids land application scenarios for a range of 5–100 t/ha fertilizer application rate. The 95th percentile of the hazard index (HI) increased from 0.124 to 0.179 when the rate of fertilizer application increased from 5 to 100 t/ha at one-time biosolids land application. The HI at long-term biosolids land application was also found 1.3 and 1.9 times greater than that of one-time land application at fertilizer application rates of 5 and 100 t/ha, respectively. Rice ingestion had more contribution to the HI than vegetable ingestion. Cd and Cu were also found to have more contribution to the health risk associated to vegetable and rice ingestion, respectively. Results indicated no potential risk to the human health even at long-term biosolids land application scenario at 100 t/ha fertilizer application rate.

  1. Economic impact of land finance and subsequent risk response

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lü Wei; Xu Hongwei

    2014-01-01

    In China,land finance is actually an endogenous factor in economic growth.As a kind of nontraditional,informal government revenue in China's economic transition process,land finance is unstable,non-standard and unsustainable,and it simultaneously makes the current land-finance dependent growth mode difficult to maintain.The paper firstly analyzes the impact of the land finance on China's economic growth and economic structure change followed by discussing the possible risks in post-"land finance" period.It then put forward some suggestions to deal with the problem.The analysis shows that land finance exacerbates the economic fluctuation,bringing in the increase of government public expenditure and economic growth in the short term.Nonetheless,in the long term there is no significant effect,and it could gradually lead to a more unreasonable economic structure.In the post-"land finance" period,if we do not take precautions in advance,it will restrain the sustainable development of China's economy and society.

  2. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  3. Assessing the chemical contamination dynamics in a mixed land use stream system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne Thobo; McKnight, Ursula S.; Rønde, Vinni

    2017-01-01

    Traditionally, the monitoring of streams for chemical and ecological status has been limited to surface water concentrations, where the dominant focus has been on general water quality and the risk for eutrophication. Mixed land use stream systems, comprising urban areas and agricultural production......, are challenging to assess with multiple chemical stressors impacting stream corridors. New approaches are urgently needed for identifying relevant sources, pathways and potential impacts for implementation of suitable source management and remedial measures. We developed a method for risk assessing chemical...... stressors in these systems and applied the approach to a 16-km groundwater-fed stream corridor (Grindsted, Denmark). Three methods were combined: (i) in-stream contaminant mass discharge for source quantification, (ii) Toxic Units and (iii) environmental standards. An evaluation of the chemical quality...

  4. Evolvement rules of basin flood risk under low-carbon mode. Part I: response of soil organic carbon to land use change and its influence on land use planning in the Haihe basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Wang, Liping; Zhao, Yong

    2017-08-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. The aim of this study was to evaluate the response of SOC to land use change and its influence on land use planning in the Haihe basin, and provide planning land use pattern for basin flood risk assessment. Firstly, the areas of different land use types in 1980, 2008, and the planning year (2020) were counted by area statistics function of ArcGIS. Then, the transfer matrixes of land use were produced by spatial overlay analysis function. Lastly, based on the land use maps, soil type map and soil profile database, SOC storage of different land use types in three different periods were calculated. The results showed the patterns of land use have changed a lot from 1980 to 2008, among the 19,835 km 2 of grassland was transformed into forestland, which was the largest conversion landscape. And land use conversion brought the SOC storage changes. Total carbon source was 88.83 Tg, and total carbon sink was 85.49 Tg. So, the Haihe basin presented as a carbon source from 1980 to 2008. From 2008 to 2020, the changes of forestland and grassland are the biggest in Haihe basin, which cause the SOC pool change from a carbon source to a carbon sink. SOC storage will increase from 2420.5 Tg in 2008 to 2495.5 Tg in 2020. The changing trend is conducive to reducing atmospheric concentrations. Therefore, land use planning in Haihe basin is reasonable and can provide the underlying surface condition for flood risk assessment.

  5. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  6. Well Salinization Risk and Effects of Baltic Sea Level Rise on the Groundwater-Dependent Island of Öland, Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Eriksson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we estimate baseline conditions in terms of the current risk of well salinization on the Baltic Sea island of Öland, Sweden, and assess the effects of future sea level rise on the land area, infrastructure and cultural values. We use a multicriterion geographical information systems (GIS approach. Geomorphological and physical parameters affect the risk of saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers, including their hydrology, geomorphology, and climatology; the spatial distribution of the current risk of salinization is mapped in this study. In the event of a future 2 m sea level rise, a total land area of 67 km2 will be inundated on Öland, corresponding to approximately 5% of the island’s land surface. Inundation includes urban areas, nature reserves, and animal protection areas, implying the loss of environmental and socioeconomic values. A future 2 m sea level rise will also cause direct inundation of 3% of all wells on the island. Currently, 17.5% of all wells are at a high risk of becoming saltwater contaminated. More generally, the present results add evidence showing a relatively high vulnerability of major Baltic Sea islands and their infrastructure to future sea level rise. The approach used here and related results, including salinization risk maps, may prove useful for decision-makers in the planning of infrastructure. Drilling of new wells could for instance preferably be done in areas with identified lower risk-index values, which would facilitate an overall higher freshwater withdrawal in the interest of the entire island.

  7. Accounting for land use in life cycle assessment: The value of NPP as a proxy indicator to assess land use impacts on ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taelman, Sue Ellen; Schaubroeck, Thomas; De Meester, Steven; Boone, Lieselot; Dewulf, Jo

    2016-04-15

    Terrestrial land and its resources are finite, though, for economic and socio-cultural needs of humans, these natural resources are further exploited. It highlights the need to quantify the impact humans possibly have on the environment due to occupation and transformation of land. As a starting point of this paper (1(st) objective), the land use activities, which may be mainly socio-culturally or economically oriented, are identified in addition to the natural land-based processes and stocks and funds that can be altered due to land use. To quantify the possible impact anthropogenic land use can have on the natural environment, linked to a certain product or service, life cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool commonly used. During the last decades, many indicators are developed within the LCA framework in an attempt to evaluate certain environmental impacts of land use. A second objective of this study is to briefly review these indicators and to categorize them according to whether they assess a change in the asset of natural resources for production and consumption or a disturbance of certain ecosystem processes, i.e. ecosystem health. Based on these findings, two enhanced proxy indicators are proposed (3(rd) objective). Both indicators use net primary production (NPP) loss (potential NPP in the absence of humans minus remaining NPP after land use) as a relevant proxy to primarily assess the impact of land use on ecosystem health. As there are two approaches to account for the natural and productive value of the NPP remaining after land use, namely the Human Appropriation of NPP (HANPP) and hemeroby (or naturalness) concepts, two indicators are introduced and the advantages and limitations compared to state-of-the-art NPP-based land use indicators are discussed. Exergy-based spatially differentiated characterization factors (CFs) are calculated for several types of land use (e.g., pasture land, urban land). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  9. Assessing the impact of land use/land cover and climate changes on water stress in the derived savanna

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Amidu, A

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate patterns on basin runoff is necessary in assessing basin water stress. This assessment requires long-term observed rainfall time series and LULC spatial data. In order to assess...

  10. Ecological risk caused by land use change in the coastal zone: a case study in the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di, X H; Wang, Y D; Hou, X Y

    2014-01-01

    China's coastal zone plays an important role in ecological services production and social-economic development; however, extensive and intensive land resource utilization and land use change have lead to high ecological risk in this area during last decade. Regional ecological risk assessment can provide fundamental knowledge and scientific basis for better understanding of the relationship between regional landscape ecosystem and human activities or climate changes, facilitating the optimization strategy of land use structure and improving the ecological risk prevention capability. In this paper, the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone is selected as the study site, which is undergoing a new round of coastal zone exploitation and has endured substantial land use change in the past decade. Land use maps of 2000, 2005 and 2010 were generated based on Landsat images by visual interpretation method, and the ecological risk index was then calculated. The index was 0.3314, 0.3461 and 0.3176 in 2000, 2005 and 2010 respectively, which showed a positive transition of regional ecological risk in 2005

  11. Assessment of soil erosion risk in Komering watershed, South Sumatera, using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salsabilla, A.; Kusratmoko, E.

    2017-07-01

    Changes in land use watershed led to environmental degradation. Estimated loss of soil erosion is often difficult due to some factors such as topography, land use, climate and human activities. This study aims to predict soil erosion hazard and sediment yield using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model. The SWAT was chosen because it can simulate the model with limited data. The study area is Komering watershed (806,001 Ha) in South Sumatera Province. There are two factors land management intervention: 1) land with agriculture, and 2) land with cultivation. These factors selected in accordance with the regulations of spatial plan area. Application of the SWAT demonstrated that the model can predict surface runoff, soil erosion loss and sediment yield. The erosion risk for each watershed can be classified and predicted its changes based on the scenarios which arranged. In this paper, we also discussed the relationship between the distribution of erosion risk and watershed's characteristics in a spatial perspective.

  12. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2018-02-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil-zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and intensity of industrial development. The zinc content was affected by soil factors, and the type of land use (arable lands, grasslands, forests, wastelands). A total of 320 soil samples were characterized in terms of physicochemical properties (texture, pH, organic C content, total and available Zn content). Based on the obtained data, assessment of the ecological risk of zinc was conducted using two methods: potential ecological risk index and hazard quotient. Total Zn content in the soils ranged from 8.27 to 7221 mg kg -1 d.m. Based on the surface semivariograms, the highest variability of zinc in the soils was observed from northwest to southeast. The point sources of Zn contamination were located in the northwestern part of the area, near the mining-metallurgical activity involving processing of zinc and lead ores. These findings were confirmed by the arrangement of semivariogram surfaces and bivariate Moran's correlation coefficients. The content of bioavailable forms of zinc was between 0.05 and 46.19 mg kg -1 d.m. (0.01 mol dm -3 CaCl 2 ), and between 0.03 and 71.54 mg kg -1 d.m. (1 mol dm -3 NH 4 NO 3 ). Forest soils had the highest zinc solubility, followed by arable land, grassland and wasteland. PCA showed that organic C was the key factor to control bioavailability of zinc in the soils. The extreme, very high and medium zinc accumulation was found in 69% of studied soils. There is no ecological risk of zinc to living organisms in the study area, and in 90

  13. Development of multi-year land cover data to assess wildfire impacts to coastal watersheds and the nearshore environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Katherine D.

    In the Mediterranean ecosystems of coastal California, wildfire is a common disturbance that can significantly alter vegetation in watersheds that transport sediment and nutrients to the adjacent nearshore oceanic environment. We assess the impact of two wildfires that burned in 2008 on land cover and to the nearshore environment along the Big Sur coast in central California. We created a multi-year land cover dataset to assess changes to coastal watersheds as a result of fire. This land cover dataset was then used to model changes in nonpoint source pollutants transported to the nearshore environment. Results indicate post-fire increases in percent export compared to pre-fire years and also link wildfire severity to the specific land cover changes that subsequently increase exports of pollutants and sediment to the nearshore environment. This approach is a replicable across watersheds and also provides a framework for including the nearshore environment as a value at risk terrestrial land management revolving around wildfire, including suppression, thinning, and other activities that change land cover at a landscape scale.

  14. Land Use Suitability Assessment in Low-Slope Hilly Regions under the Impact of Urbanization in Yunnan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gui Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the conflict between land development and land conservation has become increasingly serious in China. The plan called “town of mountain” is carried out in many nonplain areas to alleviate the conflict. To avoid geological disasters and ecological risks in those areas, land use suitability assessment is of great importance. In this paper, the fuzzy weight of evidence model is applied into land use suitability assessment in low-slope hilly regions in Yunnan, China. Fuzzy weight of evidences is calculated to determine 9 map layers. Finally, posterior probabilities are modified after synthesizing each map layer, which are used to generate a land use suitability map. The results show that 9.33%, 26.18%, 45.98%, and 18.51% of low-slope hilly regions are separately highly suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable, and unsuitable for development. Besides, highly and moderately suitable areas are mainly located in towns with excellent natural and socioeconomic conditions. The largest areas which are marginally suitable for development are most widely distributed. Unsuitable areas are mainly distributed far away from towns and water sources. The findings of the research will promote the rational use and scientific management of the land.

  15. ArcFuels: an ArcMap toolbar for fuel treatment planning and wildfire risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicole M. Vaillant; Alan A. Ager

    2014-01-01

    Fire behavior modeling and geospatial analysis can provide tremendous insight to land managers in defining both the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments in the context of land management goals and public expectations. ArcFuels is a streamlined fuel management planning and wildfire risk assessment system that creates a trans-scale (stand to large landscape...

  16. Assessing the Potential for Renewable Energy on Public Lands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2003-02-01

    This report represents an initial activity of the Bureau of Land Managements (BLM) proposed National Energy Policy Implementation Plan: identify and evaluate renewable energy resources on federal lands and any limitations on accessing them. Ultimately, BLM will prioritize land-use planning activities to increase industrys development of renewable energy resources. These resources include solar, biomass, geothermal, water, and wind energy. To accomplish this, BLM and the Department of Energys National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) established a partnership to conduct an assessment of renewable energy resources on BLM lands in the western United States. The objective of this collaboration was to identify BLM planning units in the western states with the highest potential for private-sector development of renewable resources. The assessment resulted in the following findings: (1) 63 BLM planning units in nine western states have high potential for one or more renewable energy technologies; and (2) 20 BLM planning units in seven western states have high potential for power production from three or more renewable energy sources. This assessment report provides BLM with information needed to prioritize land-use planning activities on the basis of potential for the development of energy from renewable resources.

  17. Land-cover change research at the U.S. Geological Survey-assessing our nation's dynamic land surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara S.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed an unprecedented, 27-year assessment of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States. For the period 1973 to 2000, scientists generated estimates of change in major types of land use and land cover, such as development, mining, agriculture, forest, grasslands, and wetlands. To help provide the insight that our Nation will need to make land-use decisions in coming decades, the historical trends data is now being used by the USGS to help model potential future land use/land cover under different scenarios, including climate, environmental, economic, population, public policy, and technological change.

  18. Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

  19. A tiered approach for the human health risk assessment for consumption of vegetables from with cadmium-contaminated land in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartjes, Frank A.; Versluijs, Kees W.; Otte, Piet F.

    2013-01-01

    Consumption of vegetables that are grown in urban areas takes place worldwide. In developing countries, vegetables are traditionally grown in urban areas for cheap food supply. In developing and developed countries, urban gardening is gaining momentum. A problem that arises with urban gardening is the presence of contaminants in soil, which can be taken up by vegetables. In this study, a scientifically-based and practical procedure has been developed for assessing the human health risks from the consumption of vegetables from cadmium-contaminated land. Starting from a contaminated site, the procedure follows a tiered approach which is laid out as follows. In Tier 0, the plausibility of growing vegetables is investigated. In Tier 1 soil concentrations are compared with the human health-based Critical soil concentration. Tier 2 offers the possibility for a detailed site-specific human health risk assessment in which calculated exposure is compared to the toxicological reference dose. In Tier 3, vegetable concentrations are measured and tested following a standardized measurement protocol. To underpin the derivation of the Critical soil concentrations and to develop a tool for site-specific assessment the determination of the representative concentration in vegetables has been evaluated for a range of vegetables. The core of the procedure is based on Freundlich-type plant–soil relations, with the total soil concentration and the soil properties as variables. When a significant plant–soil relation is lacking for a specific vegetable a geometric mean of BioConcentrationFactors (BCF) is used, which is normalized according to soil properties. Subsequently, a ‘conservative’ vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor is calculated as basis for the Critical soil concentration (Tier 1). The tool to perform site-specific human health risk assessment (Tier 2) includes the calculation of a ‘realistic worst case’ site-specific vegetable

  20. A tiered approach for the human health risk assessment for consumption of vegetables from with cadmium-contaminated land in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swartjes, Frank A., E-mail: frank.swartjes@rivm.nl; Versluijs, Kees W.; Otte, Piet F.

    2013-10-15

    Consumption of vegetables that are grown in urban areas takes place worldwide. In developing countries, vegetables are traditionally grown in urban areas for cheap food supply. In developing and developed countries, urban gardening is gaining momentum. A problem that arises with urban gardening is the presence of contaminants in soil, which can be taken up by vegetables. In this study, a scientifically-based and practical procedure has been developed for assessing the human health risks from the consumption of vegetables from cadmium-contaminated land. Starting from a contaminated site, the procedure follows a tiered approach which is laid out as follows. In Tier 0, the plausibility of growing vegetables is investigated. In Tier 1 soil concentrations are compared with the human health-based Critical soil concentration. Tier 2 offers the possibility for a detailed site-specific human health risk assessment in which calculated exposure is compared to the toxicological reference dose. In Tier 3, vegetable concentrations are measured and tested following a standardized measurement protocol. To underpin the derivation of the Critical soil concentrations and to develop a tool for site-specific assessment the determination of the representative concentration in vegetables has been evaluated for a range of vegetables. The core of the procedure is based on Freundlich-type plant–soil relations, with the total soil concentration and the soil properties as variables. When a significant plant–soil relation is lacking for a specific vegetable a geometric mean of BioConcentrationFactors (BCF) is used, which is normalized according to soil properties. Subsequently, a ‘conservative’ vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor is calculated as basis for the Critical soil concentration (Tier 1). The tool to perform site-specific human health risk assessment (Tier 2) includes the calculation of a ‘realistic worst case’ site-specific vegetable

  1. Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2009-12-21

    Abstract Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with \\'greenspace\\' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from \\'grow-your-own\\' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating \\'scares\\' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of \\'obesity and sloth\\' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of \\'grow-your-own\\' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide

  2. Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leake, Jonathan R; Adam-Bradford, Andrew; Rigby, Janette E

    2009-12-21

    Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with 'greenspace' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from 'grow-your-own' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating 'scares' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of 'obesity and sloth' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of 'grow-your-own' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide risk management in our

  3. RECYCLING OF WATER TREATMENT PLANT SLUDGE VIA LAND APPLICATION: ASSESSMENT OF RISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Water treatment sludges (WTS) offer potential benefits when applied to soil and recycling of the waste stream via land application has been proposed as a management option. Recycling of WTS to the land helps conserve landfill disposal capacity and natural resources, but potential...

  4. Radiological assessments of land disposal options: recent model developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearn, H.S.; Pinner, A.V.; Hemming, C.R.

    1984-10-01

    This report describes progress in the development of methodologies and models for assessing the radiological impact of the disposal of low and intermediate level wastes by (i) shallow land burial in simple trenches (land 1), (ii) shallow land burial in engineered facilities (land 2), and (iii) emplacement in mined repositories or existing cavities (land 3/4). In particular the report describes wasteform leaching models, for unconditioned and cemented waste, the role of engineered barriers of a shallow land burial facility in reducing the magnitude of doses arising from groundwater contact and a detailed consideration of the interactions between radioactive carbon and various media. (author)

  5. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

  6. Assessing the shelf life of cost-efficient conservation plans for species at risk across gradients of agricultural land use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robillard, Cassandra M; Kerr, Jeremy T

    2017-08-01

    High costs of land in agricultural regions warrant spatial prioritization approaches to conservation that explicitly consider land prices to produce protected-area networks that accomplish targets efficiently. However, land-use changes in such regions and delays between plan design and implementation may render optimized plans obsolete before implementation occurs. To measure the shelf life of cost-efficient conservation plans, we simulated a land-acquisition and restoration initiative aimed at conserving species at risk in Canada's farmlands. We accounted for observed changes in land-acquisition costs and in agricultural intensity based on censuses of agriculture taken from 1986 to 2011. For each year of data, we mapped costs and areas of conservation priority designated using Marxan. We compared plans to test for changes through time in the arrangement of high-priority sites and in the total cost of each plan. For acquisition costs, we measured the savings from accounting for prices during site selection. Land-acquisition costs and land-use intensity generally rose over time independent of inflation (24-78%), although rates of change were heterogeneous through space and decreased in some areas. Accounting for spatial variation in land price lowered the cost of conservation plans by 1.73-13.9%, decreased the range of costs by 19-82%, and created unique solutions from which to choose. Despite the rise in plan costs over time, the high conservation priority of particular areas remained consistent. Delaying conservation in these critical areas may compromise what optimized conservation plans can achieve. In the case of Canadian farmland, rapid conservation action is cost-effective, even with moderate levels of uncertainty in how to implement restoration goals. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Aquifers in coastal reclaimed lands - real world assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, A.; Bironne, A.; Vonhögen-Peeters, L.; Lee, W. K.; Babovic, V. M.; Vermeulen, P.; van Baaren, E.; Karaoulis, M.; Blanchais, F.; Nguyen, M.; Pauw, P.; Doornenbal, P.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change and population growth are significant concerns in coastal regions around the world, where more than 30% of the world's population reside. The numbers continue to rise as coastal areas are increasingly urbanized. Urbanization creates land shortages along the coasts, which has spurred coastal reclamation activities as a viable solution. In this study, we focus on these reclamation areas; reclaimed areas in Singapore, and in the Netherlands, and investigate the potential of these reclaimed bodies as artificial aquifers that could attenuate water shortage problems in addition to their original purpose. We compare how the reclamation methods determine the hydrogeological characteristics of these manmade aquifers. We highlight similarities in freshwater lens development in the artificial shallow aquifers under natural recharge under diverse conditions, i.e. tropical and temperate zones, using numerical models. The characteristics and responses of these aquifers with dynamic freshwater-saltwater interface are contrasted against naturally occurring coastal aquifers where equilibrium was disturbed by anthropogenic activities. Finally, we assess the risks associated with subsidence and saltwater intrusion, combining measurements and numerical models, in case these aquifers are planned for Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) or Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) strategies. Relative performances of some ASR schemes are simulated and compared in the reclaimed lands.

  8. Investigation of radioactive pollution on land at Thule and assessment of radiation doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-12-01

    Risoe National Laboratory at the Technical University of Denmark has carried out research on the terrestrial contamination in the Thule area, Greenland, after the radioactive contents of four nuclear weapons were dispersed following the crash of an American B-52 bomber in 1968. The results of this research are described in the report ''Thule-2007 - Investigation of radioactive pollution on land''. Based on this report, the National Board of Health made an assessment of radiation doses and the risk for individuals in the Thule area. The results of the assessment are described in the report ''The Thule accident. Assessment of radiation doses from terrestrial radioactive contamination''. The present report is a summary of these two reports. (ln)

  9. Error and Uncertainty in the Accuracy Assessment of Land Cover Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmento, Pedro Alexandre Reis

    Traditionally the accuracy assessment of land cover maps is performed through the comparison of these maps with a reference database, which is intended to represent the "real" land cover, being this comparison reported with the thematic accuracy measures through confusion matrixes. Although, these reference databases are also a representation of reality, containing errors due to the human uncertainty in the assignment of the land cover class that best characterizes a certain area, causing bias in the thematic accuracy measures that are reported to the end users of these maps. The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a methodology that allows the integration of human uncertainty present in reference databases in the accuracy assessment of land cover maps, and analyse the impacts that uncertainty may have in the thematic accuracy measures reported to the end users of land cover maps. The utility of the inclusion of human uncertainty in the accuracy assessment of land cover maps is investigated. Specifically we studied the utility of fuzzy sets theory, more precisely of fuzzy arithmetic, for a better understanding of human uncertainty associated to the elaboration of reference databases, and their impacts in the thematic accuracy measures that are derived from confusion matrixes. For this purpose linguistic values transformed in fuzzy intervals that address the uncertainty in the elaboration of reference databases were used to compute fuzzy confusion matrixes. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a case study in which the accuracy assessment of a land cover map for Continental Portugal derived from Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) is made. The obtained results demonstrate that the inclusion of human uncertainty in reference databases provides much more information about the quality of land cover maps, when compared with the traditional approach of accuracy assessment of land cover maps. None

  10. Influences of Regional Development on Land Use of Nagara Basin and Flood Risk Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banba Michiko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Land developments, and construction of factories or logistic centers should be implemented with the wellconsidered land use plans by taking account of disaster risks to improve the resilience of region to mitigate damages. In this paper, the relationship between regional development and land use from the perspective of flood risk control. Nagara basin in Gifu prefecture (Gifu, Mino, and Seki City, where transportation network has been developed to raise the potential for more development, is selected as a case study site. First, changes of industrial structures of the region and its influences on land use were analyzed. Then, possible flood control measures were summarized, and issues from the land use perspective are analysed

  11. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  12. Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2013-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments

  13. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

    2018-06-01

    Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

  14. Usability Study to Assess the IGBP Land Cover Classification for Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nanki Sidhu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Our research focuses on assessing the usability of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP classification scheme provided in the MODIS MCD12Q1-1 dataset for assessing the land cover of the city-state, Singapore. We conducted a user study with responses from 33 users by providing them with Google Earth images from different parts of Singapore, asking survey-takers to classify these images according to their understanding by the IGBP definitions provided. We also conducted interviews with experts from major governmental agencies working with satellite imagery, which highlighted the need for a detailed land classification for Singapore. In addition to the qualitative analysis of the IGBP land classification scheme, we carried out a validation of the MCD12Q1-1 remote sensing product against SPOT-5 imagery for our study area. The user study revealed that survey-takers were able to correctly classify urban areas, as well as densely forested areas. Misclassifications between Cropland and Mixed Forest classes were highest and were attributed by users to the broad terminology of the IGBP of the two land cover class definitions. For the accuracy assessment, we obtained validation points using weighted and unweighted stratified sampling. The overall classification accuracy for all 17 IGBP land classes is 62%. Upon selecting only the four most occurring IGBP land classes in Singapore, the classification accuracy improved to 71%. Validation of the MCD12Q1-1 against ground truth for Singapore revealed less-common land classes that may be of importance in a global context but are sources of error when the same product is applied at a smaller scale. Combining the user study with the accuracy assessment gives a comprehensive overview of the challenges associated with using global-level land cover data to derive localized land cover information specifically for smaller land masses like Singapore.

  15. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils

    OpenAIRE

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2017-01-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil–zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and...

  16. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  17. Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

    2017-12-01

    Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the

  18. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-02-12

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

  19. Application of Local Knowledge in Land Degradation Assessment in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    objective of the study was to find out local approaches used in assessing land degradation by ... Organizations and local authorities) in the locality has resulted in poor planning and implementation of land degradation intervention measures. ... malnutrition, poverty and migratory movements and lead to crises, conflicts.

  20. Planning for land use and conservation: Assessing GIS-based conservation software for land use planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rob Baldwin; Ryan Scherzinger; Don Lipscomb; Miranda Mockrin; Susan Stein

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in planning and ecological software make it possible to conduct highly technical analyses to prioritize conservation investments and inform local land use planning. We review these tools, termed conservation planning tools, and assess the knowledge of a key set of potential users: the land use planning community. We grouped several conservation software...

  1. Pollution characteristics and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in three land-use types on the southern Loess Plateau, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yubin; Wu, Faqi; Zhang, Xinsheng; Cao, Ning

    2017-08-25

    The accumulation of heavy metals in agricultural soils has been the subject of great concern because these metals have the potential to be transferred to soil solutions and subsequently accumulate in the food chain. To study the persistence of trace metals in crop and orchard soils, representative surface soil samples were collected from terrace farmland that had been cultivated for various numbers of years (3, 8, 12, 15, and >20 years), terrace orchard land that had been cultivated for various numbers of years (4, 7, 10, 12, 15, 18, 25, and >30 years), and slope farmland with various gradients (3°, 5°, 8°, 12°, 15°, and 25°) and analyzed for heavy metals (As, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, and Zn). These samples were collected from Nihegou catchment of Chunhua county in the southern Loess Plateau of China. The six heavy metals demonstrated different trends with time or gradient in the three land-use types. The Cu and Zn contents of the soil were higher than the referee background values of the loessal soil, and the contents of Cr and Ni, and especially those of As and Hg, were lower. Cu was the only heavy metal that just met the Grade III Environmental Quality Standard for Soils of China, while the others reached grade I. Cu and Hg were considered contaminant factors and Hg was a moderate potential ecological risk factor in the catchment. Of the sites investigated, 89.5% fell into the category with a low degree of contamination (C d ) and rest were moderate, while all three land-use types had low potential ecological risk (RI). Changes of C d and RI were consistent with the cultivated time in the terrace farmland and terrace orchard land. Values of RI increased while C d decreased with the increasing of slope gradient in the slope farmland. Evaluating the ecological risk posed by heavy metals using more soil samples in a larger study area is necessary on the Loess Plateau of China.

  2. Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

    2016-04-01

    The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

  3. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  4. Comparison of landslide hazard and risk assessment practices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O.

    2012-04-01

    An overview is made of the landslide hazard and risk assessment practices that are officially promoted or applied in Europe by administration offices, geological surveys, and decision makers (recommendations, regulations and codes). The reported countries are: Andorra, Austria, France, Italy (selected river basins), Romania, Spain (Catalonia), Switzerland and United Kingdom. The objective here was to compare the different practices for hazard and risk evaluation with respect to the official policies, the methodologies used (qualitative and quantitative), the provided outputs and their contents, and the terminology and map symbols used. The main observations made are illustrated with examples and the possibility of harmonization of the policies and the application of common practices to bridge the existing gaps is discussed. Some of the conclusions reached include the following: zoning maps are legally binding for public administrators and land owners only in some cases and generally when referring to site-specific or local scales rather than regional or national ones; so far, information is mainly provided on landslide susceptibility and hazard and risk assessment is performed only in a few countries; there is a variation in the use of scales between countries; the classification criteria for landslide types and mechanisms present large diversity even within the same country (in some cases no landslide mechanisms are specified while in others there is an exhaustive list); the techniques to obtain input data for the landslide inventory and susceptibility maps vary from basic to sophisticated, resulting in various levels of data quality and quantity; the procedures followed for hazard and risk assessment include analytical procedures supported by computer simulation, weighted-indicators, expert judgment and field survey-based, or a combination of all; there is an important variation between hazard and risk matrices with respect to the used parameters, the thresholds

  5. Watershed health assessment to monitor land degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidreza Sadeghi, Seyed; Hazbavi, Zeinab; Cerdà, Artemi

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation is a worldwide issue that affects the Planet and the fate of the humankind (Cerdà et al., 2009; Choudhury et al., 2016; Fernández et al., 2016; Ferreira et al., 2016). Several processes affect the sustainability of the ecosystems, from soil erosion to soil compation, deforestation, Climate Change or water, soil and air pollution (Sadeghi et al., 2015a; 2015b; Gómez-Acanta et al., 2016; Mengistu et al., 2016; Mukai, 2016). Several ecosystem theories have been presented in the scientific literatures to monitor land degradation (Cerdà et al., 2016; Davudirad et al., 2016; Fava et al., 2016; Mahyou et al., 2016; Soulard et al., 2016). Besides the scientific tasks of improving the indication, the conviction of the potential users to change their concepts toward a higher consideration of ecosystem attributes, and toward a fruitful application of the health or integrity concepts, will be a main task of future activities. Reliability, resilience and vulnerability (R-R-V) indicators are often used in combination for quantifying risk and decision making in many systems. However, the use of hydrological series data for R-R-V computations has been rather limited. Toward this, the overall objective of this paper is to conduct a risk assessment analysis on stream flow discharge from Shazand Watershed located in the south western of Markazi Province in Iran for the period of 1972-2014 using R-R-V indicators. Based on the R-R-V analysis conducted in this study, the stream flow discharge of the study region followed a cyclic pattern with a decreasing trend. The results further showed a decreasing trend in reliability and resilience and an increasing trend in vulnerability in the Shazand Watershed. It may be concluded that the Shazand Watershed was in overall in unhealthy condition from view of stream flow discharge. Acknowledgements This research was funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant no. 603498 (RECARE Project

  6. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik

    2015-12-15

    Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  8. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

  9. Ecuadorian Banana Farms Should Consider Organic Banana with Low Price Risks in Their Land-Use Portfolios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Luz Maria; Calvas, Baltazar; Knoke, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Organic farming is a more environmentally friendly form of land use than conventional agriculture. However, recent studies point out production tradeoffs that often prevent the adoption of such practices by farmers. Our study shows with the example of organic banana production in Ecuador that economic tradeoffs depend much on the approach of the analysis. We test, if organic banana should be included in economic land-use portfolios, which indicate how much of the land is provided for which type of land-use. We use time series data for productivity and prices over 30 years to compute the economic return (as annualized net present value) and its volatility (with standard deviation as risk measure) for eight crops to derive land-use portfolios for different levels of risk, which maximize economic return. We find that organic banana is included in land-use portfolios for almost every level of accepted risk with proportions from 1% to maximally 32%, even if the same high uncertainty as for conventional banana is simulated for organic banana. A more realistic, lower simulated price risk increased the proportion of organic banana substantially to up to 57% and increased annual economic returns by up to US$ 187 per ha. Under an assumed integration of both markets, for organic and conventional banana, simulated by an increased coefficient of correlation of economic return from organic and conventional banana (ρ up to +0.7), organic banana holds significant portions in the land-use portfolios tested only, if a low price risk of organic banana is considered. We conclude that uncertainty is a key issue for the adoption of organic banana. As historic data support a low price risk for organic banana compared to conventional banana, Ecuadorian farmers should consider organic banana as an advantageous land-use option in their land-use portfolios. PMID:25799506

  10. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  11. Trajectory analysis of land use and land cover maps to improve spatial-temporal patterns, and impact assessment on groundwater recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zomlot, Z.; Verbeiren, B.; Huysmans, M.; Batelaan, O.

    2017-11-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) change is a consequence of human-induced global environmental change. It is also considered one of the major factors affecting groundwater recharge. Uncertainties and inconsistencies in LULC maps are one of the difficulties that LULC timeseries analysis face and which have a significant effect on hydrological impact analysis. Therefore, an accuracy assessment approach of LULC timeseries is needed for a more reliable hydrological analysis and prediction. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land use uncertainty and to improve the accuracy of a timeseries of CORINE (coordination of information on the environment) land cover maps by using a new approach of identifying spatial-temporal LULC change trajectories as a pre-processing tool. This ensures consistency of model input when dealing with land-use dynamics and as such improves the accuracy of land use maps and consequently groundwater recharge estimation. As a case study the impact of consistent land use changes from 1990 until 2013 on groundwater recharge for the Flanders-Brussels region is assessed. The change trajectory analysis successfully assigned a rational trajectory to 99% of all pixels. The methodology is shown to be powerful in correcting interpretation inconsistencies and overestimation errors in CORINE land cover maps. The overall kappa (cell-by-cell map comparison) improved from 0.6 to 0.8 and from 0.2 to 0.7 for forest and pasture land use classes respectively. The study shows that the inconsistencies in the land use maps introduce uncertainty in groundwater recharge estimation in a range of 10-30%. The analysis showed that during the period of 1990-2013 the LULC changes were mainly driven by urban expansion. The results show that the resolution at which the spatial analysis is performed is important; the recharge differences using original and corrected CORINE land cover maps increase considerably with increasing spatial resolution. This study indicates

  12. The impact of land use/land cover changes on land degradation dynamics: a Mediterranean case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajocco, S; De Angelis, A; Perini, L; Ferrara, A; Salvati, L

    2012-05-01

    In the last decades, due to climate changes, soil deterioration, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCCs), land degradation risk has become one of the most important ecological issues at the global level. Land degradation involves two interlocking systems: the natural ecosystem and the socio-economic system. The complexity of land degradation processes should be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess diachronically land degradation dynamics under changing land covers. This paper analyzes LULCCs and the parallel increase in the level of land sensitivity to degradation along the coastal belt of Sardinia (Italy), a typical Mediterranean region where human pressure affects the landscape characteristics through fires, intensive agricultural practices, land abandonment, urban sprawl, and tourism concentration. Results reveal that two factors mainly affect the level of land sensitivity to degradation in the study area: (i) land abandonment and (ii) unsustainable use of rural and peri-urban areas. Taken together, these factors represent the primary cause of the LULCCs observed in coastal Sardinia. By linking the structural features of the Mediterranean landscape with its functional land degradation dynamics over time, these results contribute to orienting policies for sustainable land management in Mediterranean coastal areas.

  13. The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Land Degradation Dynamics: A Mediterranean Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajocco, S.; De Angelis, A.; Perini, L.; Ferrara, A.; Salvati, L.

    2012-05-01

    In the last decades, due to climate changes, soil deterioration, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCCs), land degradation risk has become one of the most important ecological issues at the global level. Land degradation involves two interlocking systems: the natural ecosystem and the socio-economic system. The complexity of land degradation processes should be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess diachronically land degradation dynamics under changing land covers. This paper analyzes LULCCs and the parallel increase in the level of land sensitivity to degradation along the coastal belt of Sardinia (Italy), a typical Mediterranean region where human pressure affects the landscape characteristics through fires, intensive agricultural practices, land abandonment, urban sprawl, and tourism concentration. Results reveal that two factors mainly affect the level of land sensitivity to degradation in the study area: (i) land abandonment and (ii) unsustainable use of rural and peri-urban areas. Taken together, these factors represent the primary cause of the LULCCs observed in coastal Sardinia. By linking the structural features of the Mediterranean landscape with its functional land degradation dynamics over time, these results contribute to orienting policies for sustainable land management in Mediterranean coastal areas.

  14. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  15. Higher tier field research in ecological risk assessment: a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faber, J. [Alterra, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2003-07-01

    A newly developed basic procedure for site-specific ecological risk assessment in The Netherlands was followed in practice for the first time. In line with conventional Triade approaches, the procedure includes multidisciplinary parameters from environmental chemistry, toxicology and ecology to provide multiple weight of evidence. However, land use at the contaminated site and its vicinity is given more importance, and research parameters are selected in accordance to specific objectives for land use in order to test for harmful effects to underlying ecosystem services. Moreover, the approach is characterized by repetitive interactions between stakeholders and researching consultants, in particular with respect to the choice of parameters and criteria to assess the results. The approach was followed in an ecological risk assessment to test the assumptions underlying a soil management plant for a rural area in The Netherlands, called 'Krimpenerwaard'. Throughout this region some 5000 polder ditches have been filled with waste materials originating from local households, waterway sludge, industrial wastes, car shredders, and more. Several sites are severely polluted by heavy metals, cyanide, PAH or chlorinated hydrocarbons and require remediation or clean up. However, the exact distribution of these wastes over the entire region is scarcely known, and the Krimpenerwaard as a whole is treated as one case of serious soil pollution. A soil management plan was constructed by 13 stakeholding parties, aiming for a 'functional clean up' in view of land use, by means of covering 'suspected' categories of wastes with a 30-cm layer of local type soil. The ecological risk assessment aims to verify the assumptions in the soil management plan regarding the prevention of possible undesirable effects induced by the various waste materials. A tiered approach is followed, including a screening for bioavailable contaminants, a testing for general effects

  16. Digital soil mapping in assessment of land suitability for organic farming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghambashidze, Giorgi; Kentchiashvili, Naira; Tarkhnishvili, Maia; Jolokhava, Tamar; Meskhi, Tea

    2017-04-01

    Digital soil mapping (DSM) is a fast-developing sub discipline of soil science which gets more importance along with increased availability of spatial data. DSM is based on three main components: the input in the form of field and laboratory observational methods, the process used in terms of spatial and non-spatial soil inference systems, and the output in the form of spatial soil information systems, which includes outputs in the form of rasters of prediction along with the uncertainty of prediction. Georgia is one of the countries who are under the way of spatial data infrastructure development, which includes soil related spatial data also. Therefore, it is important to demonstrate the capacity of DSM technics for planning and decision making process, in which assessment of land suitability is a major interest for those willing to grow agricultural crops. In that term land suitability assessment for establishing organic farms is in high demand as market for organically produced commodities is still increasing. It is the first attempt in Georgia to use DSM to predict areas with potential for organic farming development. Current approach is based on risk assessment of soil pollution with toxic elements (As, Hg, Pb, Cd, Cr) and prediction of bio-availability of those elements to plants on example of the region of Western Georgia, where detailed soil survey was conducted and spatial database of soil was created. The results of the study show the advantages of DSM at early stage assessment and depending on availability and quality of the input data, it can achieve acceptable accuracy.

  17. Influence of land-use dynamics on natural hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazza, Giacomo; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    In the recent past the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard events has increased notably worldwide, along with global GDP. A higher number of elements are exposed to natural events, therefore the risk is higher. Both estimated losses and understanding about natural hazards have increased during the past decades, which is contradictory as we may logically think. Risk is increasing, due to climate change and societal change: more severe hazards are happening due to changing climatic patterns and conditions, while society is concentrating assets and people in punctual places leading to a higher exposure. Increasing surface of settled area and the concentration of highly valuable assets (e.g. technology) in exposed areas lead to higher probability of losses. Human use of land resources, namely landuse, is the product of human needs and biophysical characteristics of the land. Landuse involves arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. These changes are due to many reasons, or driving factors: socio-economical, environmental, accessibility to land, land-tenure, etc. The change of those factors may cause many effects and impacts, at various levels and at different time spans. The relation between driving factors and impacts is not straight. It is although a complex interrelation that turns around two central questions: (1) what drives landuse changes and why and (2) what are the impacts on the environment and on the human society of these changes, regarding to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatio-temporal environmental changes referring to exposure as well as to test the possibilities and limitations of the land use change model Dyna-CLUEs in a mountain region taking parts of the Republic of Austria as an example, and simulating the future landuse dynamics until 2030. We selected an area composed by eighteen municipalities in the Ill-Walgau in the Austrian federal

  18. LAND COVER ASSESSMENT OF INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES IN THE BOSAWAS REGION OF NICARAGUA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Data derived from remotely sensed images were utilized to conduct land cover assessments of three indigenous communities in northern Nicaragua. Historical land use, present land cover and land cover change processes were all identified through the use of a geographic informat...

  19. An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H; Koomen, Eric; Hilferink, Maarten; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal

  20. Assessing residential buildings value in Spain for risk analyses. Application to the landslide hazard in the Autonomous Community of Valencia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarino, I.; Torrijo, F. J.; Palencia, S.; Gielen, E.

    2014-05-01

    This paper proposes a method of valuing the stock of residential buildings in Spain as the first step in assessing possible damage caused to them by natural hazards. For the purposes of the study we had access to the SIOSE (the Spanish Land Use and Cover Information System), a high-resolution land-use model, as well as to a report on the financial valuations of this type of buildings throughout Spain. Using dasymetric disaggregation processes and GIS techniques we developed a geolocalized method of obtaining this information, which was the exposure variable in the general risk assessment formula. If hazard maps and risk assessment methods - the other variables - are available, the risk value can easily be obtained. An example of its application is given in a case study that assesses the risk of a landslide in the entire 23 200 km2 of the Valencia Autonomous Community (NUT2), the results of which are analyzed by municipal areas (LAU2) for the years 2005 and 2009.

  1. Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

    2007-12-01

    Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land

  2. A Transparent Framework for guiding Radiological and Non-Radiological Contaminated Land Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Alex; Mathers, Dan

    2003-01-01

    A framework is presented that may be used as a transparent guidance to both radiological and non-radiological risk assessments. This framework has been developed by BNFL, with external consultation, to provide a systematic approach for identifying key system drivers and to guide associated research packages in light of data deficiencies and sources of model uncertainty. The process presented represents an advance on existing working practices yet combines regulator philosophy to produce a robust, comprehensive, cost-effective and transparent work package. It aims at lending added confidence to risk models thereby adding value to the decision process

  3. Evaluating Anthropogenic Risk of Grassland and Forest Habitat Degradation using Land-Cover Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Riitters

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The effects of landscape context on habitat quality are receiving increased attention in conservation biology. The objective of this research is to demonstrate a landscape-level approach to mapping and evaluating the anthropogenic risks of grassland and forest habitat degradation by examining habitat context as defined by intensive anthropogenic land uses at multiple spatial scales. A landscape mosaic model classifies a given location according to the amounts of intensive agriculture and intensive development in its surrounding landscape, providing measures of anthropogenic risks attributable to habitat isolation and edge effects at that location. The model is implemented using a land-cover map (0.09 ha/pixel of the conterminous United States and six landscape sizes (4.4, 15.2, 65.6, 591, 5300, and 47800 ha to evaluate the spatial scales of anthropogenic risk. Statistics for grassland and forest habitat are extracted by geographic overlays of the maps of land-cover and landscape mosaics. Depending on landscape size, 81 to 94 percent of all grassland and forest habitat occurs in landscapes that are dominated by natural land-cover including habitat itself. Within those natural-dominated landscapes, 50 percent of grassland and 59 percent of forest is within 590 m of intensive agriculture and/or intensive developed land which is typically a minor component of total landscape area. The conclusion is that anthropogenic risk attributable to habitat patch isolation affects a small proportion of the total grassland or forest habitat area, while the majority of habitat area is exposed to edge effects.

  4. Land Use Measures are Underused in Flood Risk Mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, van den A.; Neuvel, J.J.M. (Jeroen)

    2010-01-01

    New research in the Netherlands indicates that spatial planning to manage flood risk, such as the elevation of residential areas and the exclusion of vulnerable land uses from flood-prone areas, is underused. Its use appears to depend on governmental requirements, previous experience of flooding and

  5. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  6. Spatially heterogeneous land cover/land use and climatic risk factors of tick-borne feline cytauxzoonosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Ram K; Almes, Kelli; Goodin, Doug G; Harrington, John A; Stackhouse, Paul W

    2014-07-01

    Feline cytauxzoonosis is a highly fatal tick-borne disease caused by a hemoparasitic protozoan, Cytauxzoon felis. This disease is a leading cause of mortality for cats in the Midwestern United States, and no vaccine or effective treatment options exist. Prevention based on knowledge of risk factors is therefore vital. Associations of different environmental factors, including recent climate were evaluated as potential risk factors for cytauxzoonosis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). There were 69 cases determined to be positive for cytauxzoonosis based upon positive identification of C. felis within blood film examinations, tissue impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Negative controls totaling 123 were selected from feline cases that had a history of fever, malaise, icterus, and anorexia but lack of C. felis within blood films, impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Additional criteria to rule out C. felis among controls were the presence of regenerative anemia, cytologic examination of blood marrow or lymph node aspirate, other causative agent diagnosed, or survival of 25 days or greater after testing. Potential environmental determinants were derived from publicly available sources, viz., US Department of Agriculture (soil attributes), US Geological Survey (land-cover/landscape, landscape metrics), and NASA (climate). Candidate variables were screened using univariate logistic models with a liberal p value (0.2), and associations with cytauxzoonosis were modeled using a global multivariate logistic model (p<0.05). Spatial heterogeneity among significant variables in the study region was modeled using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach. Total Edge Contrast Index (TECI), grassland-coverage, humidity conditions recorded during the 9(th) week prior to case arrival, and an interaction variable, "diurnal temperature range × percent mixed forest area" were significant risk factors for

  7. Assessing Urban Forest Structure, Ecosystem Services, and Economic Benefits on Vacant Land

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunwoo Kim

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available An urban forest assessment is essential for developing a baseline from which to measure changes and trends. The most precise way to assess urban forests is to measure and record every tree on a site, but although this may work well for relatively small populations (e.g., street trees, small parks, it is prohibitively expensive for large tree populations. Thus, random sampling offers a cost-effective way to assess urban forest structure and the associated ecosystem services for large-scale assessments. The methodology applied to assess ecosystem services in this study can also be used to assess the ecosystem services provided by vacant land in other urban contexts and improve urban forest policies, planning, and the management of vacant land. The study’s findings support the inclusion of trees on vacant land and contribute to a new vision of vacant land as a valuable ecological resource by demonstrating how green infrastructure can be used to enhance ecosystem health and promote a better quality of life for city residents.

  8. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment; CD-ROM ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McVeigh, C.A. [Currie Coopers and Lybrand, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1996-04-01

    An overview of various aspects of mergers and acquisition transactions in the petroleum industry were presented. Incentives to mergers and acquisitions were reviewed and discussed, among them value opportunity, critical size, incremental tax pools, financial distress, shareholder dissatisfaction, strategic infrastructure position, complementary assets, and undeveloped land inventory. Current trends in mergers and acquisitions were highlighted. An industry checklist for risk assessments discussing financial position, engineering forecasts, and taxation was also included.

  9. Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Reservoir at Kevin Dome, Montana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, Minh [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States); Onishi, Tsubasa [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Carey, James William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Will, Bob [Schlumberger, Houston, TX (United States); Zaluski, Wade [Schlumberger, Houston, TX (United States); Bowen, David [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); DeVault, Brian [Vecta Oil and Gas, Dallas, TX (United States); Duguid, Andrew [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Spangler, Lee [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Stauffer, Philip H. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-12-22

    In this report, we describe risk assessment work done using the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) applied to CO2 storage at Kevin Dome, Montana. Geologic CO2 sequestration in saline aquifers poses certain risks including CO2/brine leakage through wells or non-sealing faults into groundwater or to the land surface. These risks are difficult to quantify due to data availability and uncertainty. One solution is to explore the consequences of these limitations by running large numbers of numerical simulations on the primary CO2 injection reservoir, shallow reservoirs/aquifers, faults, and wells to assess leakage risks and uncertainties. However, a large number of full-physics simulations is usually too computationally expensive. The NRAP integrated assessment model (NRAP-IAM) uses reduced order models (ROMs) developed from full-physics simulations to address this issue. A powerful stochastic framework allows NRAPIAM to explore complex interactions among many uncertain variables and evaluate the likely performance of potential sequestration sites.

  10. Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

    2016-04-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

  11. The Apache Longbow-Hellfire Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground: Ecological Risk Assessment for Tracked Vehicle Movement across Desert Pavement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, Mark J; Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Hargrove, William Walter

    2008-01-01

    A multiple stressor risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework. The focus was a testing program at Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, M60-A1 tanks. This paper describes the ecological risk assessment for the tracked vehicle movement component of the testing program. The principal stressor associated with tracked vehicle movement was soil disturbance, and a resulting, secondary stressor was hydrological change. Water loss to washes and wash vegetation was expected to result from increased infiltration and/or evaporation associated with disturbances to desert pavement. The simulated exposure of wash vegetation to water loss was quantified using estimates of exposed land area from a digital ortho quarter quad aerial photo and field observations, a 30 30 m digital elevation model, the flow accumulation feature of ESRI ArcInfo, and a two-step process in which runoff was estimated from direct precipitation to a land area and from water that flowed from upgradient to a land area. In all simulated scenarios, absolute water loss decreased with distance from the disturbance, downgradient in the washes; however, percentage water loss was greatest in land areas immediately downgradient of a disturbance. Potential effects on growth and survival of wash trees were quantified by using an empirical relationship derived from a local unpublished study of water infiltration rates. The risk characterization concluded that neither risk to wash vegetation growth or survival nor risk to mule deer abundance and reproduction was expected. The risk characterization was negative for both the incremental risk of the test program and the combination of the test and pretest disturbances

  12. Site-Specific ecological risk assessment. Case-study 2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, John

    “Development of a decision support system for sustainable management of contaminated land by linking bioavailability, ecological risk and ground water pollution of organic pollutants”or in short “LIBERATION”. The presentation includes examples on how to scale and integrate the results from various scientific......The decision supporting and integrating assessment tool, TRIAD, is used site-specific on PAH- and heavy metal contaminated sites in Denmark. The various aspects of the TRIAD approach are used on a set of chemistry-, ecotoxicology- and ecology related data collected among others in the EU project...

  13. Evaluation of the potential for bioaerosols from land applied biosolids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanner, Benjamin; Brooks, John; Josephseon, Karen; Gerba, Charles; Pepper, Ian

    2003-07-01

    The overall objective of this study was to quantitatively and qualitatively document the potential hazards of biological aerosols derived from land applied biosolids, and ultimately develop risk assessment models and land-management strategies for safe, effective use of biosolids. The specific objectives were: i) Quantify bacterial and viral microorganisms emitted as bioaerosols from point sources of biosolids, and area (land-applied) sources of biosolids; ii) Develop risk assessment models based on a) hazard identification, b) dose response, c) exposure assessment; d) risk characterization. Research has consisted of laboratory studies at the University of Arizona and field studies at several regional U.S. locations. Bioaerosol samples have been collected via ''Impingement'' using SKC biosamplers. The biologicals monitored for included: i) viruses: enteroviruses, calciviruses; ii) phage e.g, MS2; iii) E. coil; iv) Salmonella; v) total coliforms; vi) Clostridium perfringens; vii) Aspergillus spp.; viii) Endotoxin. Air samples were collected at discrete distances torn both biosolid piles (point sources), or land applied biosolids (area sources). (author)

  14. Comprehensive assessment of soil erosion risk for better land use planning in river basins: Case study of the Upper Blue Nile River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Poesen, Jean; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Meshesha, Derege Tsegaye; Fenta, Ayele Almaw; Nyssen, Jan; Adgo, Enyew

    2017-01-01

    In the drought-prone Upper Blue Nile River (UBNR) basin of Ethiopia, soil erosion by water results in significant consequences that also affect downstream countries. However, there have been limited comprehensive studies of this and other basins with diverse agroecologies. We analyzed the variability of gross soil loss and sediment yield rates under present and expected future conditions using a newly devised methodological framework. The results showed that the basin generates an average soil loss rate of 27.5tha -1 yr -1 and a gross soil loss of ca. 473Mtyr -1 , of which, at least 10% comes from gully erosion and 26.7% leaves Ethiopia. In a factor analysis, variation in agroecology (average factor score=1.32) and slope (1.28) were the two factors most responsible for this high spatial variability. About 39% of the basin area is experiencing severe to very severe (>30tha -1 yr -1 ) soil erosion risk, which is strongly linked to population density. Severe or very severe soil erosion affects the largest proportion of land in three subbasins of the UBNR basin: Blue Nile 4 (53.9%), Blue Nile 3 (45.1%), and Jema Shet (42.5%). If appropriate soil and water conservation practices targeted ca. 77.3% of the area with moderate to severe erosion (>15tha -1 yr -1 ), the total soil loss from the basin could be reduced by ca. 52%. Our methodological framework identified the potential risk for soil erosion in large-scale zones, and with a more sophisticated model and input data of higher spatial and temporal resolution, results could be specified locally within these risk zones. Accurate assessment of soil erosion in the UBNR basin would support sustainable use of the basin's land resources and possibly open up prospects for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region. Copyright © 2016 Office national des forêts. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khakzad, Nima, E-mail: nkhakzad@gmail.com [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Reniers, Genserik [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Faculty of Applied Economics, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp (Belgium); Research Group CEDON, Campus Brussels, KULeuven, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A Bayesian network methodology has been developed to estimate the total probability of major accidents in chemical plants. • Total probability of accidents includes the probability of individual accidents and potential domino effects. • The methodology has been extended to calculate on-site and off-site risks. • The results of the risk analysis have been used in a multi-criteria decision analysis technique to risk-based design of chemical plants. - Abstract: Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

  16. Assessment of the Effects of Emerging Grazing Policies on Land ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... policies on land degradation in Nigeria using soil, vegetation and sustainability as variables for the assessment. ... animals per kilometer square of land and 15,000 persons and 12,500 grazing animals per kilometer square of water. ... OTHER RESOURCES.

  17. Radiological health risk evaluation of radium contaminated land: A real life implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paridaens, J.

    2005-01-01

    A plot of land, currently used for dairy farming, has been contaminated over the years with radium due to the operation of one of the world's largest radium production plants. Within the framework of a global remediation approach for the plant surroundings, the land owner needed advice for a future destination of the land. Therefore, the radium contamination was accurately mapped, and on the basis of its severity a practically feasible subdivision of the land into four plots was proposed. For all four plots, the radiological risk was evaluated for the current type of land use and for possible alternative types. Hence a clear and usable advice could be formulated to the authorities reconciling public health, economic and practical issues. (authors)

  18. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  19. Crop Condition Assessment with Adjusted NDVI Using the Uncropped Arable Land Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miao Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Crop condition assessment in the early growing stage is essential for crop monitoring and crop yield prediction. A normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI-based method is employed to evaluate crop condition by inter-annual comparisons of both spatial variability (using NDVI images and seasonal dynamics (based on crop condition profiles. Since this type of method will generate false information if there are changes in crop rotation, cropping area or crop phenology, information on cropped/uncropped arable land is integrated to improve the accuracy of crop condition monitoring. The study proposes a new method to retrieve adjusted NDVI for cropped arable land during the growing season of winter crops by integrating 16-day composite Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS reflectance data at 250-m resolution with a cropped and uncropped arable land map derived from the multi-temporal China Environmental Satellite (Huan Jing Satellite charge-coupled device (HJ-1 CCD images at 30-m resolution. Using the land map’s data on cropped and uncropped arable land, a pixel-based uncropped arable land ratio (UALR at 250-m resolution was generated. Next, the UALR-adjusted NDVI was produced by assuming that the MODIS reflectance value for each pixel is a linear mixed signal composed of the proportional reflectance of cropped and uncropped arable land. When UALR-adjusted NDVI data are used for crop condition assessment, results are expected to be more accurate, because: (i pixels with only uncropped arable land are not included in the assessment; and (ii the adjusted NDVI corrects for interannual variation in cropping area. On the provincial level, crop growing profiles based on the two kinds of NDVI data illustrate the difference between the regular and the adjusted NDVI, with the difference depending on the total area of uncropped arable land in the region. The results suggested that the proposed method can be used to improve the assessment of

  20. Impact assessment of land use policies: Introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bezlepkina, I.; Brouwer, F.M.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    This special issue is built around a series of impact assessments of land use policies and sustainable development in developing countries, carried out in the EU-funded project LUPIS (Sixth framework programme, Global Change and Ecosystems, Contract 36955). The project targeted at the development

  1. Forest Landscape Assessment Tool (FLAT): rapid assessment for land management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa Ciecko; David Kimmett; Jesse Saunders; Rachael Katz; Kathleen L. Wolf; Oliver Bazinet; Jeffrey Richardson; Weston Brinkley; Dale J. Blahna

    2016-01-01

    The Forest Landscape Assessment Tool (FLAT) is a set of procedures and tools used to rapidly determine forest ecological conditions and potential threats. FLAT enables planners and managers to understand baseline conditions, determine and prioritize restoration needs across a landscape system, and conduct ongoing monitoring to achieve land management goals. The rapid...

  2. Global assessment of the economics of land degradation and improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkonya, Ephraim

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation—defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report as the long-term loss of ecosystems services—is a global problem, negatively affecting the livelihoods and food security of billions of people. Intensifying efforts, mobilizing more investments and strengthening the policy commitment for addressing land degradation at the global level needs to be supported by a careful evaluation of the costs and benefits of action versus costs of inaction against land degradation. Consistent with the definition of land degradation, we adopt the Total Economic Value (TEV) approach to determine the costs of land degradation and use remote sensing data and global statistical databases in our analysis. The results show that the annual costs of land degradation due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) are about US231 billion per year or about 0.41 % of the global GDP of US56.49 trillion in 2007. Contrary to past global land degradation assessment studies, land degradation is severe in both tropical and temperate countries. However, the losses from LUCC are especially high in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 26 % of the total global costs of land degradation due to LUCC. However, the local tangible losses (mainly provisioning services) account only for 46 % of the total cost of land degradation and the rest of the cost is due to the losses of ecosystem services (ES) accruable largely to beneficiaries other than the local land users. These external ES losses include carbon sequestration, biodiversity, genetic information and cultural services. This implies that the global community bears the largest cost of land degradation, which suggests that efforts to address land degradation should be done bearing in mind that the global community,as a whole, incurs larger losses than the local communities experiencing land degradation. The cost of soil fertility mining due to using land degrading management practices on maize, rice and wheat is estimated to be

  3. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  4. Integrating economic and environmental indicators in the assessment of desertification risk: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvati, L. [Piazza F. Morosini 12, Rome (Italy); Zitti, M.; Ceccarelli, T. [Ufficio Centrale di Ecologia Agraria, Rome (Italy)

    2008-09-30

    Desertification is a complex phenomenon which reduces the soil fertility involving ecological and economic processes that characterize the environment at different geographic scales. The most widely accepted definition of desertification is the one given by the United Nations Convention. It defines desertification as 'land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human actities'.Desertification involves many countries featuring different ecological, economic, and social conditions. In Mediterranean Europe, high human pressure, economic development, and climatic changes combine to produce land consumption, soil erosion, salinization, and fire risk, all considered as key factors to start desertification processes. For many years the term desertification has been strictly associated to geo-physical conditions, but in very complex ecosystems the study of the interaction of physical patterns with population and social characteristics is necessary to better delineate areas at risk. The aims of this paper are therefore (i) to review recent findings in term of desertification processes and risk assessment in the Mediterranean basin, (ii) to illustrate a simplified model in which social and economic variables may significantly accelerate land degradation leading to desertification, (iii) to suggest a set of demographic, economic, and institutional indicators suitable to contribute to the assessment of desertification risk in the Mediterranean basin, (iv) to built a synthetic index based on a multivariate approach and, finally, (v) to compare such index with a standard index of desertification risk only referring to geo-physical conditions. As a conclusion, new findings to be achieved in the context of human impact on environment as an original contribution to the study of desertification were delineated.

  5. The World Atlas of Desertification assessment concept for conscious land use solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherlet, Michael; Ivits, Eva; Kutnjak, Hrvoje; Smid, Marek; Sommer, Stefan; Zucca, Claudio

    2015-04-01

    Land degradation and desertification are complex phenomena that result in environmental damage, economic inefficiency and social inequity and are reflected by a reducing productive capacity of the land and soil. Research indicated that they are driven by a multiple but a limited number of causal aspects that unbalance the capacity of the environment system to sustainably produce ecosystem services and economic value. Competition for land, driven by societal needs or economic opportunities, adds further stress on the land resources. To address these complex global challenges, a monitoring and assessment system offering up-to-date information on the status and trends of land degradation and their causes and effects is needed to provide science-based routes for possible land use solutions. The assessment concept that has been outlined for the compilation of the new World Atlas of Desertification (WAD) confronts this complexity by converging evidence of stress on the land system caused by various issues. These issues relate to sets of dynamics of the human-environment system and include changing agricultural or pastoral land use and management practices, changing population and societal aspects, changing aridity and drought. The WAD describes the issues, spatially documents their change, whenever data is available, highlights the importance of the issues in relation to land degradation processes and illustrates the integrated assessment concepts. The first step is the preparation of solid global data layers that are related to, or express aspects that can be related to, land-system productivity dynamics and status. These can be used for identifying and evaluating the interaction of spatial variables with the land-system productivity dynamics. Initial analysis of the land productivity dynamics within stratified land cover/use areas, such as the global croplands, show substantial differences in the extension, geographic location and possible related causes of potentially

  6. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  7. A framework for self-assessment of capacity needs in land administration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig; van der Molen, Paul

    2006-01-01

    This paper is facing the widely stated problem of poor institutional capacity of land administration agencies in many developing and transition countries. Responding to this problem has not been simple. The challenges of building capacity in land administration are immense and not similar to just...... human resource development. Capacity building addresses the broader concept of the ability of organisations and individuals to perform functions effectively, efficiently and sustainable. The guidelines presented in this paper address the ability/capacity of land administration systems at the societal...... processes; to needed human resources and training programs. For each step the capacity of the system can be assessed and possible or needed improvement can be identified. The guidelines aim to function as a basis for in-country self-assessment of the capacity needs in land administration. The government may...

  8. Ecological and human health risks arising from exposure to metals in urban soils under different land use in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwegbue, Chukwujindu M A; Martincigh, Bice S

    2018-05-01

    The concentrations of eight metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cu, Mn, Zn and Fe) were measured in soils under different land use in an urban environment of the Niger Delta in Nigeria. The aim was to provide information on the potential ecological and human health risks associated with human exposure to metals in these soils. The potential ecological risk due to metals in soils of these land use types falls in the range of low to moderate ecological risk with a significant contribution from Cd. The severity of the individual metals to ecological risk in these land use types followed the order Cd > Pb > Zn > Cu > Ni > Cr > Mn. The non-carcinogenic risk, expressed in terms of the hazard index (HI), arising through exposure to metals through oral, dermal and inhalation pathways, was greater than 1 for children in the majority of the land use types and less than 1 for adults for all land use types. This indicated that there are considerable non-cancer risks arising from childhood exposure to metals in soils of these land use types. The cancer risk values were within acceptable threshold values indicating a negligible cancer risk for both children and adults exposed to metals in these urban soils.

  9. Study on Ecological Risk Assessment of Guangxi Coastal Zone Based on 3s Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Z.; Luo, H.; Ling, Z. Y.; Huang, Y.; Ning, W. Y.; Tang, Y. B.; Shao, G. Z.

    2018-05-01

    This paper takes Guangxi coastal zone as the study area, following the standards of land use type, divides the coastal zone of ecological landscape into seven kinds of natural wetland landscape types such as woodland, farmland, grassland, water, urban land and wetlands. Using TM data of 2000-2015 such 15 years, with the CART decision tree algorithm, for analysis the characteristic of types of landscape's remote sensing image and build decision tree rules of landscape classification to extract information classification. Analyzing of the evolution process of the landscape pattern in Guangxi coastal zone in nearly 15 years, we may understand the distribution characteristics and change rules. Combined with the natural disaster data, we use of landscape index and the related risk interference degree and construct ecological risk evaluation model in Guangxi coastal zone for ecological risk assessment results of Guangxi coastal zone.

  10. UNESCO World Heritage Site Hallstatt: Rockfall hazard and risk assessment as basis for a sustainable land-use planning- a case study from the Eastern Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melzner, Sandra; Mölk, Michael; Schiffer, Michael; Gasperl, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    In times of decreasing financial resources, the demand for the investment in protection measures with a positive return on investment is of high importance. Hazard and risk assessments are essential tools in order to ensure an economically justifiable application of money in the implementation of preventive measures. Many areas in the Eastern Alps are recurrently affected by rockfall processes which pose a significant hazard to settlements and infrastructures. Complex tectonic, lithological and geomorphologic settings require a sufficient amount of effort to map and collect high quality data to perform a reliable hazard and risk analysis. The present work summarizes the results of a detailed hazard and risk assessment performed in a community in the Northern Calcareous Alps (Upper Austroalpine Unit). The community Hallstatt is exposed to very steep limestone cliffs, which are highly susceptible towards future, in many parts high magnitude rock failures. The analysis of the record of former events shows that since 1652 several rockfall events damaged or destroyed houses and killed or injured some people. Hallstatt as a Unesco World Heritage Site represents a very vulnerable settlement, the risk being elevated by a high frequency tourism with greater one million visitors per year. Discussion will focus on the applied methods to identify and map the rockfall hazard and risk, including a magnitude-frequency analysis of events in the past and an extrapolation in the future as well as a vulnerability analysis for the existing infrastructure under the assumed events for the determined magnitude-frequency scenarios. Furthermore challenges for a decision making in terms of a sustainable land use planning and implementation of preventive measures will be discussed.

  11. Health risk assessment of heavy metals through the consumption of food crops fertilized by biosolids: A probabilistic-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini Koupaie, E; Eskicioglu, C

    2015-12-30

    The objective of this study was to perform a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to assess the health risk of Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), and Zinc (Zn) through the consumption of food crops grown on farm lands fertilized by biosolids. The risk analysis was conducted using 8 years of historical heavy metal data (2005-2013) of the municipal biosolids generated by a nearby treatment facility considering one-time and long-term biosolids land application scenarios for a range of 5-100 t/ha fertilizer application rate. The 95th percentile of the hazard index (HI) increased from 0.124 to 0.179 when the rate of fertilizer application increased from 5 to 100 t/ha at one-time biosolids land application. The HI at long-term biosolids land application was also found 1.3 and 1.9 times greater than that of one-time land application at fertilizer application rates of 5 and 100 t/ha, respectively. Rice ingestion had more contribution to the HI than vegetable ingestion. Cd and Cu were also found to have more contribution to the health risk associated to vegetable and rice ingestion, respectively. Results indicated no potential risk to the human health even at long-term biosolids land application scenario at 100 t/ha fertilizer application rate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

    2015-04-01

    . Geological, morphological, and physical factors coupled with anthropogenic activities made the spatiotemporal prediction of possible slope failures very challenging. Changing climate and land-use-and-land-cover required a dynamic geo-system approach for assessing multi-hazard in Malaysia and it is still a great challenge to be dealt with. We also critically discussed the capability, limitation and future direction of geo-information tools particularly the active sensors for systematically providing the spatial input towards landslide hazard and possible risk. The cost-and-benefit of developed methods compared to traditional mapping techniques is also elaborated. This paper put forth the critical and practical framework ranging from updating landslide inventory to mitigating landslide risk as an attempt to support the establishment of a comprehensive landslide risk management in Malaysia. The advancement of multistage processing sequence based on airborne-, and ground-based laser remote sensing technology coupling with the sophisticated satellite positioning system, advanced geographical information system and expert knowledge leading to a better understanding of the landslide processes and their dynamics in time and space. Given the state-of-the-art of multi-sensor-LIDAR and complexity of tropical environment, this first landslide project carried out at the national scale provides a better indication and recommendation on the use of modern and advanced mapping technology for assessing tropical landslide geomorphology in an objective, reproducible and quantitative manner.

  13. National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas Loveland; Rezaul Mahmood; Toral Patel-Weynand; Krista Karstensen; Kari Beckendorf; Norman Bliss; Andrew Carleton

    2012-01-01

    This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature...

  14. High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

    2015-02-17

    Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

  15. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  16. Migration and Land Rental as Risk Response in Rural China

    OpenAIRE

    Ward, Patrick S.; Shively, Gerald E.

    2011-01-01

    Households in developing countries take various actions to smooth income or consumption as a means of managing or responding to risk. One of the principal means of smoothing income is through the diversification of income sources, including non-farm employment and rural-urban migration. An important consumption smoothing strategy involves the accumulation and depletion of assets. We examine migration and land rental market participation as responses to risk in rural China. Using a longitudina...

  17. EXPERT MODEL OF LAND SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR CROPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Đurđević

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A total of 17404 soil samples (2003rd-2009th year were analysed in the eastern Croatia. The largest number of soil samples belongs to the Osijek-Baranya county, which together with both Eastern sugar beet Factories (Osijek and Županja, conduct the soil fertility control (~4200 samples/yr.. Computer model suitability assessment for crops, supported by GIS, proved to be fast, efficient enough reliable in terms of the number of analyzed soil samples. It allows the visualization of the agricultural area and prediction of its production properties for the purposes of analysis, planning and rationalization of agricultural production. With more precise data about the soil (soil, climate and reliable Digital Soil Map of Croatia, the model could be an acceptable, not only to evaluate the suitability for growing different crops but also their need for fertilizer, necessary machinery, repairs (liming, and other measures of organic matter input. The abovementioned aims to eliminate or reduce effects of limiting factors in primary agricultural production. Assessment of the relative benefits of soil presented by computer model for the crops production and geostatistical method kriging in the Osijek-Baranya county showed: 1 Average soil suitability being 60.06 percent. 2 Kriging predicted that 51751 ha (17.16% are of limited resources (N1 for growing crops whereas a 86142 ha (28.57% of land is limited suitably (S3, b 132789 ha (44.04% are moderately suitable (S2 and c 30772 ha (10.28% are of excellent fertility (S1. A large number of eastern Croatian land data showed that the computer-geostatistical model for determination of soil benefits for growing crops was automated, fast and simple to use and suitable for the implementation of GIS and automatically downloading the necessary benefit indicators from the input base (land, analytical and climate as well as data from the digital soil maps able to: a visualize the suitability for soil tillage, b predict the

  18. Assessment of hazards and risks for landscape protection planning in Sicily.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Rosa, Daniele; Martinico, Francesco

    2013-09-01

    Landscape protection planning is a complex task that requires an integrated assessment and involves heterogeneous issues. These issues include not only the management of a considerable amount of data to describe landscape features but also the choice of appropriate tools to evaluate the hazards and risks. The landscape assessment phase can provide fundamental information for the definition of a Landscape Protection Plan, in which the selection of norms for protection or rehabilitation is strictly related to hazards, values and risks that are found. This paper describes a landscape assessment methodology conducted by using GIS, concerning landscape hazards, values and risk. Four hazard categories are introduced and assessed concerning urban sprawl and erosion: landscape transformations by new planned developments, intensification of urban sprawl patterns, loss of agriculture land and erosion. Landscape value is evaluated by using different thematic layers overlaid with GIS geoprocessing. The risk of loss of landscape value is evaluated, with reference to the potential occurrence of the previously assessed hazards. The case study is the Province of Enna (Sicily), where landscape protection is a relevant issue because of the importance of cultural and natural heritage. Results show that high value landscape features have a low risk of loss of landscape value. For this reason, landscape protection policies assume a relevant role in landscapes with low-medium values and they should be addressed to control the urban sprawl processes that are beginning in the area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  20. Assessment of the impact of climate change and land cover change on landslide in Tana Toraja district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardiansyah, M.; Rafiuddin, A.; Jadmiko, S. D.; Boer, R.

    2018-05-01

    Landslides are the frequent and widespread climate hazard in Indonesia that cause loss of human life and damage to property. Tana Toraja District is one of the regencies in Indonesia with the highest number of landslide events. Throughout the year 2016 there were at least 3 (three) landslide incidents that caused casualties and disconnection of transportation access. The study aimed to assess the impact of climate change and land cover change on landslide hazard in the Tana Toraja District. The study showed that in 2014 the number of landslide area with high risk was 53.3% and very high risk 14.4%, while in 2031 the high risk 56.4% and very high risk 12.7%. Thus, in high climate risk area, landslide adaptation and risk reduction strategies in the framework of climate change are necessary.

  1. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-05-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM

  2. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Winsemius

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population. The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE. We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from

  3. STUDY ON ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF GUANGXI COASTAL ZONE BASED ON 3S TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zhong

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper takes Guangxi coastal zone as the study area, following the standards of land use type, divides the coastal zone of ecological landscape into seven kinds of natural wetland landscape types such as woodland, farmland, grassland, water, urban land and wetlands. Using TM data of 2000–2015 such 15 years, with the CART decision tree algorithm, for analysis the characteristic of types of landscape’s remote sensing image and build decision tree rules of landscape classification to extract information classification. Analyzing of the evolution process of the landscape pattern in Guangxi coastal zone in nearly 15 years, we may understand the distribution characteristics and change rules. Combined with the natural disaster data, we use of landscape index and the related risk interference degree and construct ecological risk evaluation model in Guangxi coastal zone for ecological risk assessment results of Guangxi coastal zone.

  4. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  5. Coalbed methane and salmon : assessing the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendling, G.; Vadgama, J.; Holmes, R.

    2008-05-01

    The harmful environmental impacts from coalbed methane (CBM) development on land, water and wildlife have all been well documented based on experience in the United States and elsewhere. However, proposals to develop CBM resources in the headwaters region of northwest British Columbia raise a new issue regarding the impacts of CBM extraction on salmon. In order to begin addressing this knowledge gap and provide essential information for communities, this report presented an assessment of the risks of CBM development on salmon, with a specific focus on a tenure held by Shell Canada Limited in the Klappan region of Northwest British Columbia. The report provided a general overview of the CBM extraction process and of the environmental impacts typically associated with commercial-scale production. The Klappan Tenure location and geology were described along with the significance of its CBM reserves. The report also addressed the question of salmon presence within the tenure, drawing on existing field research to identify streams where coho, chinook and sockeye salmon have been observed. The report also contained assessments of potential risks associated with the two primary impact pathways, notably runoff and erosion effects arising from land disturbance, and stream flow and temperature effects arising from groundwater extraction. The report provided a brief overview of additional CBM-related impacts which could have indirect effects on salmon. Last, the report considered factors external to the Klappan project which could influence the nature and severity of impacts on salmon, including climate change; inadequate regulations; and cumulative impacts. It was concluded that CBM development should not occur without social license. Communities need to be empowered to decide whether or not they support CBM extraction in their area before development proceeds. 73 refs., 3 tabs., 26 figs

  6. Assessment and Enhancement of MERRA Land Surface Hydrology Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, Rolf H.; Koster, Randal D.; deLannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Forman, Barton A.; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith P. P.; Toure, Ally

    2012-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-ofthe-art reanalysis that provides, in addition to atmospheric fields, global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux, snow, and runoff for 1979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ("MERRA-Land") generated by re-running a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically, the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameter values in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-I root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 18 US basins) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-I. With a few exceptions, the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using MERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

  7. Evaluation and selection of indicators for land degradation and desertification monitoring: methodological approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosmas, C; Kairis, Or; Karavitis, Ch; Ritsema, C; Salvati, L; Acikalin, S; Alcala, M; Alfama, P; Atlhopheng, J; Barrera, J; Belgacem, A; Solé-Benet, A; Brito, J; Chaker, M; Chanda, R; Coelho, C; Darkoh, M; Diamantis, I; Ermolaeva, O; Fassouli, V; Fei, W; Feng, J; Fernandez, F; Ferreira, A; Gokceoglu, C; Gonzalez, D; Gungor, H; Hessel, R; Juying, J; Khatteli, H; Khitrov, N; Kounalaki, A; Laouina, A; Lollino, P; Lopes, M; Magole, L; Medina, L; Mendoza, M; Morais, P; Mulale, K; Ocakoglu, F; Ouessar, M; Ovalle, C; Perez, C; Perkins, J; Pliakas, F; Polemio, M; Pozo, A; Prat, C; Qinke, Y; Ramos, A; Ramos, J; Riquelme, J; Romanenkov, V; Rui, L; Santaloia, F; Sebego, R; Sghaier, M; Silva, N; Sizemskaya, M; Soares, J; Sonmez, H; Taamallah, H; Tezcan, L; Torri, D; Ungaro, F; Valente, S; de Vente, J; Zagal, E; Zeiliguer, A; Zhonging, W; Ziogas, A

    2014-11-01

    An approach to derive relationships for defining land degradation and desertification risk and developing appropriate tools for assessing the effectiveness of the various land management practices using indicators is presented in the present paper. In order to investigate which indicators are most effective in assessing the level of desertification risk, a total of 70 candidate indicators was selected providing information for the biophysical environment, socio-economic conditions, and land management characteristics. The indicators were defined in 1,672 field sites located in 17 study areas in the Mediterranean region, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Based on an existing geo-referenced database, classes were designated for each indicator and a sensitivity score to desertification was assigned to each class based on existing research. The obtained data were analyzed for the various processes of land degradation at farm level. The derived methodology was assessed using independent indicators, such as the measured soil erosion rate, and the organic matter content of the soil. Based on regression analyses, the collected indicator set can be reduced to a number of effective indicators ranging from 8 to 17 in the various processes of land degradation. Among the most important indicators identified as affecting land degradation and desertification risk were rain seasonality, slope gradient, plant cover, rate of land abandonment, land-use intensity, and the level of policy implementation.

  8. Human health risk from soil heavy metal contamination under different land uses near Dabaoshan Mine, Southern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Huarong; Xia, Beicheng; Fan, Chen; Zhao, Peng; Shen, Shili

    2012-01-01

    Soil heavy metal contamination is a major environmental concern, and the ecological risk associated with heavy metals is increasing. In this paper, we investigated heavy metal contamination near Dabaoshan Mine by: using sequential indicator simulation to delineate the spatial patterns of soil data; fitting multiple linear regression models for heavy metal uptake by crops; interpreting land uses from remote sensing images and integrating the spatial patterns, uptake models and land uses into a dose–response model for human health risks from heavy metals. The areas with elevated soil heavy metal concentrations are mainly located at the Dabaoshan Mine site and in the watershed basins of the Hengshi, Tielong and Chuandu rivers. The average concentrations of Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb in soil in the study area are all above the natural soil background levels, but Cd is the major contributor to human health risk in the area. Areas of low soil pH are also found throughout the watershed basins of the Hengshi, Tielong and Chuandu rivers. Of the different land use types in the study area, agricultural and residential land uses have the highest human health risk because ingestion is the dominant exposure pathway for heavy metals. The spatial patterns of the heavy metal concentrations and soil pH indicate that the areas with the highest human health risk regions do not directly coincide with the areas of highest heavy metal concentrations, but do coincide with the areas of lower soil pH. The contamination with high concentrations of heavy metals provides the risk source, but the combination of high heavy metal concentrations, low pH and agricultural or residential land use is required for human health risks to be present. The spatial pattern of the hazard quotients indicates that Cd is the most important pollutant contributing to the human health risk. - Highlights: ►The distribution of Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and pH in soil were analyzed near Dabaoshan Mine. ►Heavy metal uptake models in

  9. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  10. Assessment of bioenergy potential on marginal land in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Lei; Huang, Yaohuan [Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101 (China)

    2011-02-15

    Bioenergy developed from energy plants will play a more and more important role in future energy supply. Much attention has been paid to energy plants in recent years. As China has fairly limited cultivated land resources, the bioenergy development may mainly rely on the exploitation of marginal land. This study focused on the assessment of marginal land resources and bio-fuel potential in China using newly acquired data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. A multi-factor analysis method was adopted to identify marginal lands for bioenergy development in China, with data of several main types of energy plants on the eco-environmental requirements and natural habits employed. A combined planting zonation strategy was proposed, which was targeted for five species of energy plants including Helianthus tuberous L., Pistacia chinensis, Jatropha curcas L., Cassava and Vernicia fordii. The results indicated that total area of marginal land exploitable for development of energy plants on a large scale was about 43.75 million ha. If 10% of this marginal land was fully utilized for growing the energy plants, the production of bio-fuel would be 13.39 million tons. (author)

  11. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  12. A novel GIS-based approach to assess beekeeping suitability of Mediterranean lands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoccali, Paolo; Malacrinò, Antonino; Campolo, Orlando; Laudani, Francesca; Algeri, Giuseppe M; Giunti, Giulia; Strano, Cinzia P; Benelli, Giovanni; Palmeri, Vincenzo

    2017-07-01

    Honeybees are critically important for the environment and to the economy. However, there are in substantial decline worldwide, leading to serious threat to the stability and yield of food crops. Beekeeping is of pivotal importance, combining the wide economical aspect of honey production and the important ecological services provided by honeybees. In this scenario, the prompt identification of beekeeping areas is strategic, since it maximised productivity and lowered the risks of colony losses. Fuzzy logic is an ideal approach for problem-solving tasks, as it is specifically designed to manage problems with a high degree of uncertainty. This research tested a novel GIS-based approach to assess beekeeping suitability of lands located in Calabria (Southern Italy), without relying to Analytic Hierarchy Process - Multiple Criteria Decision Making (AHP-MCDM), thus avoiding the constraints due to the technique and decision makers' influences. Furthermore, the data used here were completely retrieved from open access sources, highlighting that our approach is characterized by low costs and can be easily reproduced for a wide arrays of geographical contexts. Notably, the results obtained by our experiments were validated by the actual beekeeping reality. Besides beekeeping, the use of this system could not only be applied in beekeeping land suitability evaluations, but may be successfully extended to other types of land suitability evaluations.

  13. Land use impact evaluation in life cycle assessment based on ecosystem thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagendorp, Tim; Gulinck, Hubert; Coppin, Pol; Muys, Bart

    2006-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of products with a major part of their life cycle in biological production systems (i.e. forestry and agriculture) are often incomplete because the assessment of the land use impact is not operational. Most method proposals include the quality of the land in a descriptive way using rank scores for an arbitrarily selected set of indicators. This paper first offers a theoretical framework for the selection of suitable indicators for land use impact assessment, based on ecosystem thermodynamics. According to recent theories on the thermodynamics of open systems, a goal function of ecosystems is to maximize the dissipation of exogenic exergy fluxes by maximizing the internal exergy storage under form of biomass, biodiversity and complex trophical networks. Human impact may decrease this ecosystem exergy level by simplification, i.e. decreasing biomass and destroying internal complexity. Within this theoretical framework, we then studied possibilities for assessing the land use impact in a more direct way by measuring the ecosystems' capacity to dissipate solar exergy. Measuring ecosystem thermal characteristics by using remote sensing techniques was considered a promising tool. Once operational, it could offer a quick and cheap alternative to quantify land use impacts in any terrestrial ecosystem of any size. Recommendations are given for further exploration of this method and for its integration into an ISO compatible LCA framework

  14. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  15. Assessment Framework and Decision—Support System for Consolidating Urban-Rural Construction Land in Coastal China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Cai

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization transforms urban-rural landscape and profoundly affects ecological processes. To maintain a sustainable urbanization, two important issues of land-use need to be quantified: the comprehensive variation of urban-rural construction land and the specific models for consolidating these lands. The purpose of this study is to develop a framework to assess the change of urban-rural construction land and build a decision-support system for consolidating these lands. Four sub-layers were first built in the assessment framework, including the characteristic layer, the coordination layer, the potential layer and the urgency layer. Each layer encompassed specific indices for evaluating the change of urban-rural construction land in different aspects. The entropy method was then applied to the data resources from Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper images, statistical data and overall land-use and land consolidation planning of Nantong city in coastal China to allocate weightings to the indices in each sub-layer. Finally, the decision-support system was built based on the assessment results and the degree of importance for consolidating urban and rural construction land, respectively. The results of our study show an overall investigation and quantitative description of the change of urban-rural construction land and provide an effective framework for land consolidation and land use management.

  16. Voluntary Nonmonetary Conservation Approaches on Private Land: A Review of Constraints, Risks, and Benefits for Raptor Nest Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Laaksonen, Toni

    2015-02-01

    Biodiversity conservation on private land of the developed world faces several challenges. The costs of land are often high, and the attitudes of landowners towards conservation are variable. Scientists and practitioners need to scan for and adopt cost-effective solutions that allow for the long-term sustainability of conservation measures on private land. In this study, we focus on one of such possible solutions: Working with landowners to implement voluntary nonmonetary conservation. We restrict our focus to protection of raptor nests, but the ideas can be applied to other taxa as well. Through a literature review, we show that a voluntary nonmonetary approach for protecting raptor nests has been so far largely neglected and/or rarely reported in the scientific literature. However, results of a questionnaire sent to BirdLife partners across Europe indicate that this approach is more widely used than it appears from the literature. We show that voluntary nonmonetary approaches may represent useful tools to protect raptor nests on private land. We provide a workflow for implementation of such an approach in raptor nest protection, highlighting benefits, potential risks, and constraints in the application of the strategy. We suggest that a voluntary nonmonetary approach may have great potential for cost-effective conservation, but the risks it may entail should be carefully assessed in each case. There is an urgent need to consider and evaluate novel approaches, such as the one described here, which may constitute missed opportunities for cost-effective conservation.

  17. Geological risk assessment for the rapid development area of the Erhai Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Liu; Wang, Zhanqi; Jin, Gui; Chen, Dongdong; Wang, Zhan

    For low-slope hilly land development to have more new land space in a watershed, it is particularly important that to coordinate the sharply increasing conflicts between mountainous and urban land utilization in the city. However, development of low-slope hilly land easily induce potential risks of geologic hazards such as landslide and landslip. It may lead to further environmental losses in a watershed. Hence, it is necessary to study potential risks of geo-hazards in low-slope hilly land development in urban area. Based on GIS spatial analysis technique, we select a study area, Dali City in the Erhai Basin located in watershed belt of Jinsha River, Lancang River and Red River in Yunnan Province of China. Through studying some relevant key indexes and parameters for monitoring potential risks of geo-hazards, we establish a composite index model for zoning the area with potential risks of geo-hazards in development of low-slope hilly land in the study area. Our research findings indicate that the potential risks of geo-hazards in eastern Dali City is relatively low while of that on slow hills with gentle slopes in the western area are relatively high. By using a zoning research method, generated maps show geological information of potential risks of geo-hazards on low-slope hilly land which provide important messages for guarding against natural geo-hazards and potential environmental losses in a watershed.

  18. A GIS-based human health risk assessment for urban green space planning--an example from Grugliasco (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poggio, Laura; Vrscaj, Borut

    2009-11-15

    The need to develop approaches for risk-based management of soil contamination, as well as the integration of the assessment of the human health risk (HHR) due to the soil contamination in the urban planning procedures has been the subject of recent attention of scientific literature and policy makers. The spatial analysis of environmental data offers multiple advantages for studying soil contamination and HHR assessment, facilitating the decision making process. The aim of this study was to explore the possibilities and benefits of spatial implementation of a quantitative HHR assessment methodology for a planning case in a typical urban environment where the soil is contaminated. The study area is located in the city of Grugliasco a part of the Turin (Italy) metropolitan area. The soils data were derived from a site specific soil survey and the land-use data from secondary sources. In the first step the soil contamination data were geo-statistically analysed and a spatial soil contamination data risk modelling procedure designed. In order to spatially assess the HHR computer routines were developed using GIS raster tools. The risk was evaluated for several different land uses for the planned naturalistic park area. The HHR assessment indicated that the contamination of soils with heavy metals in the area is not sufficient to induce considerable health problems due to typical human behaviour within the variety of urban land uses. An exception is the possibility of direct ingestion of contaminated soil which commonly occurs in playgrounds. The HHR evaluation in a planning case in the Grugliasco Municipality confirms the suitability of the selected planning option. The construction of the naturalistic park presents one solution for reducing the impacts of soil contamination on the health of citizens. The spatial HHR evaluation using GIS techniques is a diagnostic procedure for assessing the impacts of urban soil contamination, with which one can verify planning

  19. Assessing residential building values in Spain for risk analyses - application to the landslide hazard in the Autonomous Community of Valencia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarino, I.; Torrijo, F. J.; Palencia, S.; Gielen, E.

    2014-11-01

    This paper proposes a method of valuing the stock of residential buildings in Spain as the first step in assessing possible damage caused to them by natural hazards. For the purposes of the study we had access to the SIOSE (the Spanish Land Use and Cover Information System), a high-resolution land-use model, as well as to a report on the financial valuations of this type of building throughout Spain. Using dasymetric disaggregation processes and GIS techniques we developed a geolocalized method of obtaining this information, which was the exposure variable in the general risk assessment formula. Then, with the application over a hazard map, the risk value can be easily obtained. An example of its application is given in a case study that assesses the risk of a landslide in the entire 23 200 km2 of the Valencia Autonomous Community (NUT2), the results of which are analysed by municipal areas (LAU2) for the years 2005 and 2009.

  20. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  1. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  2. Technical support document for land application of sewage sludge. Volume 1. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.; Beyer, L.; Rookwood, M.; Pacenka, J.; Bergin, J.

    1992-11-01

    The document provides the technical background and justification for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) final regulation (40 CFR Part 503) covering the land application of sewage sludge. The document summarizes current practices in land application and presents data supporting the risk assessment methodology used to derive human health and environmental risk-based limits for contaminants in land applied sewage sludge. The management practices associated with land application are outlined and the different pathways by which contaminants reach highly-exposed individuals (HEIs) through land application are discussed

  3. How information resources are used by state agencies in risk assessment applications - Illinois

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, C.S.

    1990-12-31

    The Environmental Protection Agency of the State of Illinois (Illinois EPA) has programs in water, air, and land pollution and water supplies paralleling those of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The organization is part of a tripartite arrangement in which the Pollution Control Board is the judicial arm, the Department of Energy and Natural Resources is the research arm, and the Illinois EPA is the enforcement arm. Other state agencies are also concerned with various aspects of the environment and may do risk assessments for chemicals. Although there are various risk assessment activities, both formal and informal, in our agency and in others, this paper will discuss only recent initiatives in water quality criteria.

  4. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  5. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  6. Identification of types of landings after blocking in volleyball associated with risk of ACL injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahradnik, David; Jandacka, Daniel; Farana, Roman; Uchytil, Jaroslav; Hamill, Joseph

    2017-03-01

    Landing with a low knee flexion angle after volleyball block jumps may be associated with an increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. The aim of the present study was to identify the types of volleyball landings after blocks where the knee flexion angle is found to be under a critical knee flexion angle value of 30° at the instant of the first peak of the ground reaction force (GRF). Synchronized kinematic and kinetic data were collected for each trial. T-tests were used to determine if each knee flexion angle at the instant of the peak GRF was significantly different from the critical value of 30°. A repeated measures ANOVA was used to compare knee flexion angle, time to first peak and the magnitude of the first peak of the resultant GRF and knee stiffness. Significantly lower knee flexion angles were found in the "go" landing (p = .01, ES = 0.6) and the "reverse" landing (p = .02, ES = 0.6) only. The results for knee flexion angle and GRF parameters indicated a significant difference between a "reverse" and "go" and other types of landings, except the "side stick" landing for GRF. The "reverse" and "go" landings may present a risk for ACL injury due to the single-leg landing of these activities that have an associated mediolateral movement.

  7. Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Longgao, E-mail: chenlonggao@163.com [Institute of Land Resources, Jiangsu Normal University (JSNU), Xuzhou 221116 (China); Yang, Xiaoyan [Institute of Land Resources, Jiangsu Normal University (JSNU), Xuzhou 221116 (China); School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Chen, Longqian [School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Li, Long [Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels 1050 (Belgium)

    2015-11-15

    Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustrated by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to

  8. Risk assessment applications for determining cleanup limits for uranium in treated and untreated soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, A.Q.; Layton, D.W.; Rutz, E.E.

    1994-01-01

    Uranium-contaminated soils are present at various locations across the US where uranium was processed for nuclear fuels or atomic weapons. Important issues relative to such contamination include the assessment of potential health risks associated with human exposures to the residual uranium and the determination of safe levels of uranium in soils that have been treated by a given technology. This paper discusses various risk assessment considerations that must be dealt with when developing cleanup limits for uranium in treated and untreated soils. Key issues addressed include alternative land use scenarios, potential exposure pathways, characterization of the bioavailability of uranium compounds in food and water, a brief overview of health risks associated with uranium and its daughter products as well as a summary of considerations for development of risk-based cleanup limits for uranium in soils

  9. Methodology for natural and antropical hazars'assessment regarding land instability phenomena-case studies in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maftei, R.-M.; Ciurean, R.; Scutelnicu, I.; Cristea, P.; Manj, V.; Rusu, E.; Grigorescu, A.; Avram, O.; Cristian, C.

    2009-04-01

    Methodology for natural and antropical hazards' assessment regarding land instability phenomena-case studies in Romania Raluca Maftei, Roxana Ciurean, Ionut Scutelnicu, Paul Cristea, Valeriu Manj, Emil Rusu, Andrei Grigorescu, Ovidiu Avram, Cristina Cristian (1) (1) Geological Institute of Romania, Bucharest, Romania This paper is seeking to launch and to integrate data acquiring and processing technologies, technologies that are subordinated to geological and geophysical techniques, for the evaluation of land properties and of the state of land degradation in areas where natural and antropical hazards related to shallow layers' dynamics are probable. Since evaluating and diminishing land degradation process due to landslides ( took as in its extensive meaning) demand data regarding physical and geological characteristics of the lithologic complexes implied, the project has as a main objective to increase the possibility for the principal geophysical methods of shallow land layers' resolute investigation ( seismometry, electrometry). In Romania, in 2001, law 575 was adopted: ‘‘Law regarding the approval of the Plan for the national territory fitting out- Section V- Natural risk areas''. It mentions that a Romania "Landslides Risk Map" should be edited. In these circumstances, in order to establish the potential and the probability for an area to be affected by soil instability phenomenon ( caused by natural or antropical factors), according to the COM 232/2006, Chapter 2, Section 1, Article 6, the first step that has to be made is to identify and classify risk areas from the studied region. The region will than be verified every 10 years and the measure taking program will than be made public and revised every 5 years. Areas affected by landslides can loose the following functions ( COM 232/2006, chapter 1, article 1): Soil functions Bio-mass production Accumulation, filtering and transforming Biodiversity Physical and cultural environment Raw materials Carbon

  10. Governance of Land Use Planning to Reduce Fire Risk to Homes Mediterranean France and California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan D. Kocher

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Wildfire is a natural part of forested Mediterranean systems. As humans continue to live and build housing in these areas, wildfire is a constant threat to homes and lives. The goal of this paper is to describe aspects of land-use planning that are used to reduce wildfire risk in institutionally divergent regions; southern France and California. By reviewing relevant legislation and planning documents and conducting in person interviews with fire and planning professionals, we identify the institutions which participate in land use planning to reduce fire risk and the key laws and regulations that guide planning decisions. Our results indicate that France has a more centralized system for planning for fire, with national level entities heavily involved in local land use planning. California, on the other hand sees almost no federal oversite, and, while state law requires local plans to include wildfire risk, most fine grain decisions are left to local planners and decision makers. In both regions, however, we see a reliance on technical support provided from outside local jurisdictions. Increased coordination between local, regional, and national governments could improve land use planning in both locations.

  11. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  12. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  13. Incorporation of Socio-Cultural Values in Damage Assessment Valuations of Contaminated Lands in the Niger Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor A. Akujuru

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Damages on contaminated land have been mostly assessed for developments subsisting on the land, neglecting the goods and services derived from the land which possess only socio-cultural values. This paper aims to ascertain the importance of socio-cultural values in the total economic value of contaminated land, drawing from the experience of a coastal community oil spillage in the Niger Delta. The paper examines what constitutes a valuable interest on contaminated land and how socio-cultural factors are valued in the damage assessment process. After reviewing the literature and decided cases, a questionnaire survey was conducted and a sample valuation report was analysed. It is concluded that there exists a socio-cultural interest on contaminated land which professional valuers do not reflect in damage assessment claims. It is recommended that any comprehensive damage assessment requires the incorporation of socio-cultural values in the valuations.

  14. The application of seismic risk-benefit analysis to land use planning in Taipei City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Chen, Liang-Chun

    2007-09-01

    In the developing countries of Asia local authorities rarely use risk analysis instruments as a decision-making support mechanism during planning and development procedures. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology to enable planners to undertake such analyses. We illustrate a case study of seismic risk-benefit analysis for the city of Taipei, Taiwan, using available land use maps and surveys as well as a new tool developed by the National Science Council in Taiwan--the HAZ-Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system. We use three hypothetical earthquakes to estimate casualties and total and annualised direct economic losses, and to show their spatial distribution. We also characterise the distribution of vulnerability over the study area using cluster analysis. A risk-benefit ratio is calculated to express the levels of seismic risk attached to alternative land use plans. This paper suggests ways to perform earthquake risk evaluations and the authors intend to assist city planners to evaluate the appropriateness of their planning decisions.

  15. A fuzzy set approach to assess the predictive accuracy of land use simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vliet, J.; Hagen-Zanker, A.; Hurkens, J.; van van Delden, H.

    2013-01-01

    The predictive accuracy of land use models is frequently assessed by comparing two data sets: the simulated land use map and the observed land use map at the end of the simulation period. A common statistic for this is Kappa, which expresses the agreement between two categorical maps, corrected for

  16. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  17. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  18. Developing tools to identify marginal lands and assess their potential for bioenergy production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galatsidas, Spyridon; Gounaris, Nikolaos; Dimitriadis, Elias; Rettenmaier, Nils; Schmidt, Tobias; Vlachaki, Despoina

    2017-04-01

    The term "marginal land" is currently intertwined in discussions about bioenergy although its definition is neither specific nor firm. The uncertainty arising from marginal land classification and quantification is one of the major constraining factors for its potential use. The clarification of political aims, i.e. "what should be supported?" is also an important constraining factor. Many approaches have been developed to identify marginal lands, based on various definitions according to the management goals. Concerns have been frequently raised regarding the impacts of marginal land use on environment, ecosystem services and sustainability. Current tools of soil quality and land potentials assessment fail to meet the needs of marginal land identification and exploitation for biomass production, due to the lack of comprehensive analysis of interrelated land functions and their quantitative evaluation. Land marginality is determined by dynamic characteristics in many cases and may therefore constitute a transitional state, which requires reassessment in due time. Also, marginal land should not be considered simply a dormant natural resource waiting to be used, since it may already provide multiple benefits and services to society relating to wildlife, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, etc. The consequences of cultivating such lands need to be fully addressed to present a balanced view of their sustainable potential for bioenergy. This framework is the basis for the development of the SEEMLA tools, which aim at supporting the identification, assessment, management of marginal lands in Europe and the decision-making for sustainable biomass production of them using appropriate bioenergy crops. The tools comprise two applications, a web-based one (independent of spatial data) and a GIS-based application (land regionalization on the basis of spatial data), which both incorporate: - Land resource characteristics, restricting the cultivation of agricultural crops but

  19. Effect of Deforestation and Land Use Changes on Mosquito Productivity and Development in Western Kenya Highlands: Implication for Malaria Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kweka, Eliningaya J; Kimaro, Epiphania E; Munga, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    African highlands were known to be free of malaria for the past 50 years. However, the ever growing human population in the highlands of Africa has led to the deforestation and land coverage changes to create space for more land for cultivation, grazing, and house construction materials needs. This has lead to the creation of suitable breeding habitats, which are in open places. Decrease of canopy and forest cover has led to increased temperature both in outdoors and indoors in deforested areas. This increased temperature has resulted in the shortening of developmental stages of aquatic stages of mosquitoes and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes. Assessment of the effects of deforestation and land coverage changes (decrease), which leads to temperature changes and subsequently increases survivorship of adults and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes' body was gathered from previous data collected from 2003 to 2012 using different analysis techniques. Habitats productivity, species dynamics and abundance, mosquitoes feeding rates, and sporogony development are presented in relation to temperature changes. The effects of temperature rise due to land cover changes in highlands of western Kenya on larval developmental rates, adult sporogony developments, and malaria risk in human population were derived. Vector species dynamics and abundance in relation to land use changes have been found to change with time. This study found that, land cover changes is a key driver for the temperature rise in African highlands and increases the rate of malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae ssp., An. Funestus , and An. arabiensis colonizing the highlands. It has also significantly enhanced sporogony development rate and adult vector survival and therefore the risk of malaria transmission in the highlands.

  20. Modeling Net Land Occupation of Hydropower Reservoirs in Norway for Use in Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorber, Martin; May, Roel; Verones, Francesca

    2018-02-20

    Increasing hydropower electricity production constitutes a unique opportunity to mitigate climate change impacts. However, hydropower electricity production also impacts aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity through freshwater habitat alteration, water quality degradation, and land use and land use change (LULUC). Today, no operational model exists that covers any of these cause-effect pathways within life cycle assessment (LCA). This paper contributes to the assessment of LULUC impacts of hydropower electricity production in Norway in LCA. We quantified the inundated land area associated with 107 hydropower reservoirs with remote sensing data and related it to yearly electricity production. Therewith, we calculated an average net land occupation of 0.027 m 2 ·yr/kWh of Norwegian storage hydropower plants for the life cycle inventory. Further, we calculated an adjusted average land occupation of 0.007 m 2 ·yr/kWh, accounting for an underestimation of water area in the performed maximum likelihood classification. The calculated land occupation values are the basis to support the development of methods for assessing the land occupation impacts of hydropower on biodiversity in LCA at a damage level.

  1. Preliminary contamination hazard assessment of land resources in Central Bekaa plain of Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darwish, T.M.; Jomaa, I.; Awad, M.; Boumetri, R.

    2008-01-01

    The Central Bekaa plain constitutes the main region with prime agricultural land in Lebanon. The agricultural sector is the main consumer of available water resources (up to70%). Intensive agriculture, urban expansion and industrial activity have been increasingly stressing the limited soil and water resources. In the Central Bekaa, farmers are enforced to use contaminated water to recompense water shortage during the peak crop demands. Water scarcity and mismanagement increased contagion hazards and pressure on soil and groundwater quality. The objective of this study was to provide a synopsis of the assessment methodologies and analyze the soil-groundwater vulnerability to contamination by heavy metals as based on the risks of metal transfer and the degree of protection offered by the soil cover and soil-metal interaction. The soils of the area are distinguished by a high content of clay and relatively high pH that would reduce the danger of heavy metals transfer and mobility. However, throughout the study area, the perched groundwater table is relatively high with a depth varying between 60 and 500 cm making it highly vulnerable to pollution. Metals might be more mobile under reducing conditions. The area of high, medium and low soil and groundwater table vulnerability were determined and spatially located according to international standards. Referring to the German Concept on soil protection effectiveness, the residence time of percolating water carrying soluble pollutants in the unsaturated soil zone was assessed. It varied between several months and 10 years. Zones of high soil and ground water vulnerability risk require special management to establish pollution prevention programs. Results can help land use planning oriented to the choice of suitable crops, promulgate sustainable use of natural resources and environmental preservation. (author)

  2. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2012-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is ...

  3. Linking Energy- and Land-Use Systems: Energy Potentials and Environmental Risks of Using Agricultural Residues in Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia C. Terrapon-Pfaff

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to assess whether renewable energy self-sufficiency can be achieved in the crop production and processing sector in Tanzania and if this could be accomplished in an environmentally sustainable manner. In order to answer these questions the theoretical energy potential of process residues from commercially produced agricultural crops in Tanzania is evaluated. Furthermore, a set of sustainability indicators with focus on environmental criteria is applied to identify risks and opportunities of using these residues for energy generation. In particular, the positive and negative effects on the land-use-system (soil fertility, water use and quality, biodiversity, etc. are evaluated. The results show that energy generation with certain agricultural process residues could not only improve and secure the energy supply but could also improve the sustainability of current land-use practices.

  4. Assessing Heat Health Risk for Sustainability in Beijing’s Urban Heat Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihua Dong

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This research is motivated by the increasing threat of urban heat waves that are likely worsened by pervasive global warming and urbanization. Different regions of the city including urban, borderland and rural area will experience different levels of heat health risk. In this paper, we propose an improved approach to quantitatively assess Beijing’s heat health risk based on three factors from hazard, vulnerability and especially environment which is considered as an independent factor because different land use/cover types have different influence on ambient air temperatures under the Urban Heat Island effect. The results show that the heat health risk of Beijing demonstrates a spatial-temporal pattern with higher risk in the urban area, lower risk in the borderland between urban and rural area, and lowest risk in the rural area, and the total risk fluctuated dramatically during 2008–2011. To be more specific, the heat health risk was clearly higher in 2009 and 2010 than in 2008 and 2011. Further analysis with the urban area at sub-district level signifies that the impervious surface (urban area such as buildings, roads, et al. ratio is of high correlation with the heat health risk. The validation results show that the proposed method improved the accuracy of heat health risk assessment. We recommend that policy makers should develop efficient urban planning to accomplish Beijing’s sustainable development.

  5. ASSESSING LAND COVER CHANGES CAUSED BY GRANITE QUARRYING USING REMOTE SENSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. S. Moeletsi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Dimension stone quarrying in the area between Rustenburg and Brits in the North West Province of South Africa has been in existence for over 70 decades. The unique characteristics of the granite deposits in South Africa resulted in making the country a global producer of the granite rocks. This led to intensified quarrying activities between Rustenburg and Brits town. However, this surface mining method, has a potential to impact the environment in a negative way causing loss in vegetation, depletion of natural resources, loss of scenic beauty and contamination of surface water resources. To assess the land cover changes caused by granite quarrying activities, remotely sensed data in the form of Landsat images between 1998 and 2015 were used. Supervised classification was used to create maps. Accuracy assessment using Google EarthTM as a reference data yielded an overall accuracy of 78 %. The post classification change detection method was used to assess land cover changes within the granite quarries. Granite quarries increased by 1174.86 ha while formation of quarry lakes increased to 5.3 ha over the 17-year period. Vegetation cover decreased by 1308 ha in area while 18.3 ha bare land was lost during the same period. This study demonstrated the utility of remote sensing to detect changes in land cover within granite quarries.

  6. Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kucukali, Serhat, E-mail: kucukali@cankaya.edu.tr [Civil Engineering Department, Cankaya University, Balgat 06530, Ankara (Turkey)

    2011-10-15

    In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: > A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. > The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. > The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. > The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. > The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

  7. Monitoring and Assessment of Military Installation Land Condition under Training Disturbance Using Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijal, Santosh

    Various military training activities are conducted in more than 11.3 million hectares of land (> 5,500 training sites) in the United States (U.S.). These training activities directly and indirectly degrade the land. Land degradation can impede continuous military training. In order to sustain long term training missions and Army combat readiness, the environmental conditions of the military installations need to be carefully monitored and assessed. Furthermore, the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and the U.S. Army Regulation 200-2 require the DoD to minimize the environmental impacts of training and document the environmental consequences of their actions. To achieve these objectives, the Department of Army initiated an Integrated Training Area Management (ITAM) program to manage training lands through assessing their environmental requirements and establishing policies and procedures to achieve optimum, sustainable use of training lands. One of the programs under ITAM, Range and Training Land Assessment (RTLA) was established to collect field-based data for monitoring installation's environmental condition. Due to high cost and inefficiencies involved in the collection of field data, the RTLA program was stopped in several military installations. Therefore, there has been a strong need to develop an efficient and low cost remote sensing based methodology for assessing and monitoring land conditions of military installations. It is also important to make a long-term assessment of installation land condition for understanding cumulative impacts of continuous military training activities. Additionally, it is unclear that compared to non-military land condition, to what extent military training activities have led to the degradation of land condition for military installations. The first paper of this dissertation developed a soil erosion relevant and image derived cover factor (ICF) based on linear spectral mixture (LSM) analysis to assess and

  8. Transparency in risk assessments - Presenting the 'expectation value' of post-closure risks from radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Pollard, S.J.T.; Smith, R.E.; Yearsley, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The Environment Agency of England and Wales (the 'Agency') has an extremely broad regulatory remit covering aspects of flood defence, integrated pollution control, water quality, waste management, abstraction control, navigation, fisheries, conservation and recreation. Risk assessment, as a regulatory and management tool plays an essential role in the targeting and prioritisation of this activity, as well as in aiding site-specific decisions on authorisations for abstraction, discharge and/or disposal. From a regulatory perspective, the majority of the Agency's risk assessment activity is focused on critically reviewing risk assessments submitted to the Agency in support of requests for authorisation. With increasing calls for openness in all areas of regulatory decision-making, new demands are being placed on risk assessments with a view to allowing far more transparency and traceability of 'process' and 'content' than has historically been the case. The Agency is responsible for the licensing of radioactive waste disposal facilities in England and Wales. It has issued guidance on what is expected of an application for an authorisation to dispose of low and intermediate level radioactive waste to land - the 'Guidance on Requirements for Authorisation' (the 'GRA'). The GRA includes a risk target and places a strong emphasis on confidence-building during the preparation and assessment of post-closure safety cases for such facilities. In this paper we discuss a recent study commissioned by the Agency which has examined the use of expectation value of risk in assessments and considered ways of improving transparency. The study has concluded that the expectation value is an appropriate measure of risk for comparison with a single-value criterion, provided that the scope of the assessment does not involve undue speculation regarding the FEPs (Features, Events and Processes) to be included. Low probability or speculative events and processes for which no data can be

  9. Environmental risk assessment of white phosphorus from the use of munitions - a probabilistic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voie, Øyvind Albert; Johnsen, Arnt; Strømseng, Arnljot; Longva, Kjetil Sager

    2010-03-15

    White phosphorus (P(4)) is a highly toxic compound used in various pyrotechnic products. Ammunitions containing P(4) are widely used in military training areas where the unburned products of P(4) contaminate soil and local ponds. Traditional risk assessment methods presuppose a homogeneous spatial distribution of pollutants. The distribution of P(4) in military training areas is heterogeneous, which reduces the probability of potential receptors being exposed to the P(4) by ingestion, for example. The current approach to assess the environmental risk from the use of P(4) suggests a Bayesian network (Bn) as a risk assessment tool. The probabilistic reasoning supported by a Bn allows us to take into account the heterogeneous distribution of P(4). Furthermore, one can combine empirical data and expert knowledge, which allows the inclusion of all kinds of data that are relevant to the problem. The current work includes an example of the use of the Bn as a risk assessment tool where the risk for P(4) poisoning in humans and grazing animals at a military shooting range in Northern Norway was calculated. P(4) was detected in several craters on the range at concentrations up to 5.7g/kg. The risk to human health was considered acceptable under the current land use. The risk for grazing animals such as sheep, however, was higher, suggesting that precautionary measures may be advisable.

  10. A Framework for Modelling Indirect Land Use Changes in Life Cycle Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Weidema, Bo Pedersen; Brandão, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    Around 9% of global CO2 emissions originate from land use changes. Often, these emissions are not appropriately addressed in Life Cycle Assessment. The link between demand for crops in one region and impacts in other regions is referred to here as indirect land use change (iLUC) and includes...... demand for land and land use changes is established through markets for land's production capacity. The iLUC model presented is generally applicable to all land use types, crops and regions of the world in typical LCA decision-making contexts focusing on the long-term effects of small-scale changes...... deforestation, intensification and reduced consumption. Existing models for iLUC tend to ignore intensification and reduced consumption, they most often operate with arbitrary amortisation periods to allocate deforestation emissions over time, and the causal link between land occupation and deforestation...

  11. Ecological Risk Assessment Framework for Low-Altitude Overflights by Fixed-Wing and Rotary-Wing Military Aircraft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efroymson, R.A.

    2001-01-12

    This is a companion report to the risk assessment framework proposed by Suter et al. (1998): ''A Framework for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources,'' hereafter referred to as the ''generic framework.'' The generic framework is an ecological risk assessment methodology for use in environmental assessments on Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In the generic framework, the ecological risk assessment framework of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1998) is modified for use in the context of (1) multiple and diverse stressors and activities at a military installation and (2) risks resulting from causal chains, e.g., effects on habitat that indirectly impact wildlife. Both modifications are important if the EPA framework is to be used on military installations. In order for the generic risk assessment framework to be useful to DoD environmental staff and contractors, the framework must be applied to specific training and testing activities. Three activity-specific ecological risk assessment frameworks have been written (1) to aid environmental staff in conducting risk assessments that involve these activities and (2) to guide staff in the development of analogous frameworks for other DoD activities. The three activities are: (1) low-altitude overflights by fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft (this volume), (2) firing at targets on land, and (3) ocean explosions. The activities were selected as priority training and testing activities by the advisory committee for this project.

  12. Assessing and monitoring the risk of desertification in Dobrogea, Romania, using Landsat data and decision tree classifier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorovencii, Iosif

    2015-04-01

    The risk of the desertification of a part of Romania is increasingly evident, constituting a serious problem for the environment and the society. This article attempts to assess and monitor the risk of desertification in Dobrogea using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite images acquired in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007 and 2011. In order to assess the risk of desertification, we used as indicators the Modified Soil Adjustment Vegetation Index 1 (MSAVI1), the Moving Standard Deviation Index (MSDI) and the albedo, indices relating to the vegetation conditions, the landscape pattern and micrometeorology. The decision tree classifier (DTC) was also used on the basis of pre-established rules, and maps displaying six grades of desertification risk were obtained: non, very low, low, medium, high and severe. Land surface temperature (LST) was also used for the analysis. The results indicate that, according to pre-established rules for the period of 1987-2011, there are two grades of desertification risk that have an ascending trend in Dobrogea, namely very low and medium desertification. An investigation into the causes of the desertification risk revealed that high temperature is the main factor, accompanied by the destruction of forest shelterbelts and of the irrigation system and, to a smaller extent, by the fragmentation of agricultural land and the deforestation in the study area.

  13. Assessment of Displacement Flow at Ketandan Creeks to Optimizing Land Use in Jember New City Housing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entin Hidayah

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Displacement flow will caused a change in the flow characteristics such as flow depth, discharge, river slope and width of the river surface. If not carefully examined, it will cause the riverbed erosion, sedimentation and risk of flooding. This paper aims to assess the hydrology and hydraulics of the river flow changes in Ketandan creek in optimizing the use of land housing for Jember New City (JNC. Hydrology modelling studies conducted for the return period rainfall include a 2 year as normal discharge, and 100 year as flood condition. Simulation of flood designs used to assess changes in the flow regime in the channel and the risk of flooding with HEC-RAS program. The results of the study showed that for the flood design 3,1 m3/sec and 12,8 m3/sec will give the effect of critical water surface. In order to keep the flow of the river bed of critically needed as the drop-structure and spillway construction.

  14. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  16. Assessment of environmental responses to land use/land cover ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    aghomotsegin

    2013-12-17

    Dec 17, 2013 ... 49.86% of the land cover has been converted to other land uses, ... management information system and policies that will ensure sustainable management of fragile ...... growth in agricultural output such as food and fiber.

  17. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  18. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  19. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  20. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  1. Assessing Risks of Mine Tailing Dam Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The consequences of tailings dam failures can be catastrophic for communities and ecosystems in the vicinity of the dams. The failure of the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco mine in 2015 killed 19 people with severe consequences for the environment. The financial and legal consequences of a tailings dam failure can also be significant for the mining companies. For the Fundão tailings dam, the company had to pay 6 billion dollars in fines and twenty-one executives were charged with qualified murder. There are tenths of thousands of active, inactive, and abandoned tailings dams in the world and there is a need to better understand the hazards posed by these structures to downstream populations and ecosystems. A challenge to assess the risks of tailings dams in a large scale is that many of them are not registered in publicly available databases and there is little information about their current physical state. Additionally, hazard classifications of tailings dams - common in many countries- tend to be subjective, include vague parameter definitions, and are not always updated over time. Here we present a simple methodology to assess and rank the exposure to tailings dams using ArcGIS that removes subjective interpretations. The method uses basic information such as current dam height, storage volume, topography, population, land use, and hydrological data. A hazard rating risk was developed to compare the potential extent of the damage across dams. This assessment provides a general overview of what in the vicinity of the tailings dams could be affected in case of a failure and a way to rank tailings dams that is directly linked to the exposure at any given time. One hundred tailings dams in Minas Gerais, Brazil were used for the test case. This ranking approach could inform the risk management strategy of the tailings dams within a company, and when disclosed, it could enable shareholders and the communities to make decisions on the risks they are taking.

  2. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  3. Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunsanee Arunyawat

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services are highly vulnerable to a number of impacts due to the complex effects of human use of natural resources and subsequent land use change. Assessment of the impact of change in land use with respect to ecosystem services is necessary in order to implement appropriate land uses that enhance ecosystem services. This study analysed the impact of change in land use on ecosystem services using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST model to map and quantify a set of ecosystem services, namely sediment retention, water yield, carbon stock, and habitat quality, in northern Thailand, which has experienced substantial policy induced land use change. The study also assessed the changes in land use from 1989 to 2013 and their impact on overall ecosystem services using GIS. Increased rubber plantation cultivation and built-up areas resulting in reduced forest cover were the major changes found in land use in the area. The results of the study show a general decrease in ecosystem services for the study period in the watershed, in particular, a negative impact on ecosystem services was observed in agricultural areas. The study findings on spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services can help guide the development of appropriate land use options to enhance ecosystem services.

  4. Assessing the wider environmental value of remediating land contamination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bardos, R.P.; Kearney, T.E.; Nathanail, C.P.; Weenk, A.; Martin, I.D.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to consider qualitative and quantitative approaches for assessing the wider environmental value of remediating land contamination. In terms of the environmental element of sustainable development, a remediation project's overall environmental performance is the sum of the

  5. Improving Hyperspectral Image Classification Method for Fine Land Use Assessment Application Using Semisupervised Machine Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunyang Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Study on land use/cover can reflect changing rules of population, economy, agricultural structure adjustment, policy, and traffic and provide better service for the regional economic development and urban evolution. The study on fine land use/cover assessment using hyperspectral image classification is a focal growing area in many fields. Semisupervised learning method which takes a large number of unlabeled samples and minority labeled samples, improving classification and predicting the accuracy effectively, has been a new research direction. In this paper, we proposed improving fine land use/cover assessment based on semisupervised hyperspectral classification method. The test analysis of study area showed that the advantages of semisupervised classification method could improve the high precision overall classification and objective assessment of land use/cover results.

  6. Soil Erosion Risk Assessment in Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Land use without adequate soil erosion control measures is continuously increasing the risk of soil erosion by water mainly in developing tropical countries. These countries are prone to environmental disturbance due to high population growth and high rainfall intensity. The aim of this study is to assess the state of soil erosion by water in Uganda at national and district levels, for various land cover and land use (LCLU types, in protected areas as well to predict the impact of support practices on soil loss reduction. Predictions obtained using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE model indicated that the mean rate of soil loss risk in Uganda’s erosion‐prone lands was 3.2 t∙ha−1∙y−1, resulting in a total annual soil loss of about 62 million tons in 2014. About 39% of the country’s erosion‐prone lands were comprised of unsustainable mean soil loss rates >1 t∙ha−1∙y−1. Out of 112 districts in Uganda, 66 districts were found to have unsustainable estimated soil loss rates >1 t∙ha−1∙y−1. Six districts in Uganda were found to have mean annual soil loss rates of >10 t∙ha−1∙y−1: Bududa (46.3 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Kasese (37.5 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Bundibugyo (28.9 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Bulambuli (20.9 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Sironko (14.6 t∙ha−1∙y−1 and Kotido (12.5 t∙ha−1∙y−1. Among the LCLU types, the highest soil loss rates of 11 t∙ha−1∙y−1 and 10.6 t∙ha−1∙y−1 were found in moderate natural forest and dense natural forest, respectively, mainly due to their locations in highland areas characterized by steep slopes ranging between 16% to 21% and their high rainfall intensity, ranging from 1255 mm∙y−1 to 1292 mm∙y−1. Only five protected areas in Uganda were found to have high mean estimated mean soil loss rates >10 t∙ha−1∙y−1: Rwenzori Mountains (142.94 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Mount Elgon (33.81 t∙ha−1∙y−1, Bokora corridor (12.13 t∙ha−1∙y−1

  7. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  8. The Assessment Of Small Games On Fadama Land In Southeastern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Assessment Of Small Games On Fadama Land In Southeastern Nigeria And The Potential For Development. ... country can offer feasible operational strategy for sustainable wildlife species development. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  9. Agroforestry versus farm mosaic systems - Comparing land-use efficiency, economic returns and risks under climate change effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Carola; Weber, Michael; Knoke, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    Increasing land-use conflicts call for the development of land-use systems that reconcile agricultural production with the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. Agroforestry has been suggested as a global solution to increase land-use efficiency, while reducing environmental impacts and economic risks for farmers. Past research has often focused on comparing tree-crop combinations with agricultural monocultures, but agroforestry has seldom been systematically compared to other forms of land-use diversification, including a farm mosaic. This form of diversification mixes separate parcels of different land uses within the farm. The objective of this study was to develop a modelling approach to compare the performance of the agroforestry and farm mosaic diversification strategies, accounting for tree-crop interaction effects and economic and climate uncertainty. For this purpose, Modern Portfolio Theory and risk simulation were coupled with the process-based biophysical simulation model WaNuLCAS 4.0. For an example application, we used data from a field trial in Panama. The results show that the simulated agroforestry systems (Taungya, alley cropping and border planting) could outperform a farm mosaic approach in terms of cumulative production and return. Considering market and climate uncertainty, agroforestry showed an up to 21% higher economic return at the same risk level (i.e. standard deviation of economic returns). Farm compositions with large shares of land allocated to maize cultivation were also more severely affected by an increasing drought frequency in terms of both risks and returns. Our study demonstrates that agroforestry can be an economically efficient diversification strategy, but only if the design allows for economies of scope, beneficial interactions between trees and crops and higher income diversification compared to a farm mosaic. The modelling approach can make an important contribution to support

  10. Design definition study of a life/cruise fan technology V/STOL aircraft. Volume 2, addendum 2: Program risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    The results are presented of a risk assessment study conducted on two technology aircraft. The aircraft system components were reviewed and assessed for risk based on: (1) complexity relative to state-of-the-art, (2) manufacturing and qualification testing, (3) availability and delays, and (4) cost/schedule impact. These assessments were based on five risk nomenclatures: low, minor, moderate, high, and extreme. Each aircraft system was assigned an overall risk rating depending upon its contribution to the capability of the aircraft to achieve the performance goals. The slightly lower Sabreliner performance margin is due to the restricted flight envelope, the fixed landing gear, and internal fuel capacity. The Sabreliner with retractable gear and allowed to fly at its best speed and altitude would reflect performance margins similar to the New Airframe. These significant margins, inherent with the MCAIR three gas generator/three fan propulsion system, are major modifiers to risk assessment of both aircraft. The estimated risk and the associated key system and performance areas are tabulated.

  11. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  12. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  13. Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van J.; Bregt, A.K.; Hagen-Zanker, A.

    2011-01-01

    Land-use change models are typically calibrated to reproduce known historic changes. Calibration results can then be assessed by comparing two datasets: the simulated land-use map and the actual land-use map at the same time. A common method for this is the Kappa statistic, which expresses the

  14. Multitemporal analysis of Landsat images to detect land use land cover changes for monitoring soil sealing in the Nola area (Naples, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Giglio, Michaela; Allocca, Maria; Franci, Francesca

    2016-10-01

    Land Use Land Cover Changes (LULCC) data provide objective information to support environmental policy, urban planning purposes and sustainable land development. Understanding of past land use/cover practices and current landscape patterns is critical to assess the effects of LULCC on the Earth system. Within the framework of soil sealing in Italy, the present study aims to assess the LULCC of the Nola area (Naples metropolitan area, Italy), relating to a thirty year period from 1984 to 2015. The urban sprawl affects this area causing the impervious surface increase, the loss in rural areas and landscape fragmentation. Located near Vesuvio volcano and crossed by artificial filled rivers, the study area is subject to landslide, hydraulic and volcanic risks. Landsat time series has been processed by means of the supervised per-pixel classification in order to produce multitemporal Land Use Land Cover maps. Then, post-classification comparison approach has been applied to quantify the changes occurring between 1984 and 2015, also analyzing the intermediate variations in 1999, namely every fifteen years. The results confirm the urban sprawl. The increase of the built-up areas mainly causes the habitat fragmentation and the agricultural land conversion of the Nola area that is already damaged by unauthorized disposal of urban waste. Moreover, considering the local risk maps, it was verified that some of the new urban areas were built over known hazardous sites. In order to limit the soil sealing, urgent measures and sustainable urban planning are required.

  15. GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN LAND USE PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR HEMORRHAGIC FEVER RISK – A REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. Izzah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc. thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

  16. First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirac Twidwell

    Full Text Available Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1 a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2 a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3 an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands.

  17. Categorical information for assessments of land use change. Opportunities and challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levin, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    Access to detailed categorical information on land use and land cover (LULC) has increased significantly during recent years. In Denmark, free access to most categorical information (i.e. pre-classified spatially explicit information) gives opportunities for assessments and analyses of LULC-changes...... not elaborated with the aim to assess LULC-changes with definitions and registration methods changing over time and to categorical data not being spatially synchronized and consequently spatially overlapping (Ahlqvist and Shortridge, 2010; Levin et al., 2012). Presenting an assessment of annual LULC changes...... for Denmark from 1990-2013, which is part of Denmark’s emission inventory according to article 3(4) of the Kyoto protocol, this paper aims at elucidating opportunities, limitations and possible solutions for the application of categorical information. Changes between the LULC- types: settlement...

  18. Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

    2014-01-01

    Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

  19. Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucukali, Serhat

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: → A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. → The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. → The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. → The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. → The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

  20. Application of MODIS Land Products to Assessment of Land Degradation of Alpine Rangeland in Northern India with Limited Ground-Based Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masahiro Tasumi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Land degradation of alpine rangeland in Dachigam National Park, Northern India, was evaluated in this study using MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS land products. The park has been used by a variety of livestock holders. With increasing numbers of livestock, the managers and users of the park are apprehensive about degradation of the grazing land. However, owing to weak infrastructure for scientific and statistical data collection and sociopolitical restrictions in the region, a lack of quality ground-based weather, vegetation, and livestock statistical data had prevented scientific assessment. Under these circumstances, the present study aimed to assess the rangeland environment and its degradation using MODIS vegetation, snow, and evapotranspiration products as primary input data for assessment. The result of the analysis indicated that soil water content and the timing of snowmelt play an important role in grass production in the area. Additionally, the possibility of land degradation in heavily-grazed rangeland was indicated via a multiple regression analysis at a decadal timescale, whereas weather conditions, such as rainfall and snow cover, primarily explained year-by-year differences in grass production. Although statistical uncertainties remain in the results derived in this study, the satellite-based data and the analyses will promote understanding of the rangeland environment and suggest the potential for unsustainable land management based on statistical probability. This study provides an important initial evaluation of alpine rangeland, for which ground-based information is limited.

  1. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  2. Current Conditions Risk Assessment for the 300-FF-5 Groundwater Operable Unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miley, Terri B.; Bunn, Amoret L.; Napier, Bruce A.; Peterson, Robert E.; Becker, James M.

    2007-11-01

    This report updates a baseline risk assessment for the 300 Area prepared in 1994. The update includes consideration of changes in contaminants of interest and in the environment that have occurred during the period of interim remedial action, i.e., 1996 to the present, as well as the sub-regions, for which no initial risk assessments have been conducted. In 1996, a record of decision (ROD) stipulated interim remedial action for groundwater affected by releases from 300 Area sources, as follows: (a) continued monitoring of groundwater that is contaminated above health-based levels to ensure that concentrations continue to decrease, and (b) institutional controls to ensure that groundwater use is restricted to prevent unacceptable exposure to groundwater contamination. In 2000, the groundwater beneath the two outlying sub-regions was added to the operable unit. In 2001, the first 5-year review of the ROD found that the interim remedy and remedial action objectives were still appropriate, although the review called for additional characterization activities. This report includes a current conditions baseline ecological and human health risk assessment using maximum concentrations in the environmental media of the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit and downstream conditions at the City of Richland, Washington. The scope for this assessment includes only current measured environmental concentrations and current use scenarios. Future environmental concentrations and future land uses are not considered in this assessment.

  3. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  4. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  5. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  6. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  7. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  8. A new approach for land degradation and desertification assessment using geospatial techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masoudi, Masoud; Jokar, Parviz; Pradhan, Biswajeet

    2018-04-01

    Land degradation reduces the production of biomass and vegetation cover for all forms of land use. The lack of specific data related to degradation is a severe limitation for its monitoring. Assessment of the current state of land degradation or desertification is very difficult because this phenomenon includes several complex processes. For that reason, no common agreement has been achieved among the scientific community for its assessment. This study was carried out as an attempt to develop a new approach for land degradation assessment, based on its current state by modifying of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)-United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) index and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) index in Khuzestan province, southwestern Iran. Using the proposed evaluation method it is easy to understand the degree of destruction caused by the pursuit of low costs and in order to save time. Results showed that based on the percent of hazard classes in the current condition of land degradation, the most and least widespread areas of hazard classes are moderate (38.6 %) and no hazard (0.65 %) classes, respectively. Results in the desert component of the study area showed that the severe class is much more widespread than the other hazard classes, which could indicate an environmentally dangerous situation. Statistical results indicated that degradation is highest in deserts and rangeland areas compared to dry cultivated areas and forests. Statistical tests also showed that the average degradation amount in the arid region is higher than in other climates. It is hoped that this study's use of geospatial techniques will be found to be applicable in other regions of the world and can also contribute to better planning and management of land.

  9. A new approach for land degradation and desertification assessment using geospatial techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Masoudi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Land degradation reduces the production of biomass and vegetation cover for all forms of land use. The lack of specific data related to degradation is a severe limitation for its monitoring. Assessment of the current state of land degradation or desertification is very difficult because this phenomenon includes several complex processes. For that reason, no common agreement has been achieved among the scientific community for its assessment. This study was carried out as an attempt to develop a new approach for land degradation assessment, based on its current state by modifying of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO–United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP index and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI index in Khuzestan province, southwestern Iran. Using the proposed evaluation method it is easy to understand the degree of destruction caused by the pursuit of low costs and in order to save time. Results showed that based on the percent of hazard classes in the current condition of land degradation, the most and least widespread areas of hazard classes are moderate (38.6 % and no hazard (0.65 % classes, respectively. Results in the desert component of the study area showed that the severe class is much more widespread than the other hazard classes, which could indicate an environmentally dangerous situation. Statistical results indicated that degradation is highest in deserts and rangeland areas compared to dry cultivated areas and forests. Statistical tests also showed that the average degradation amount in the arid region is higher than in other climates. It is hoped that this study's use of geospatial techniques will be found to be applicable in other regions of the world and can also contribute to better planning and management of land.

  10. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  11. Terra Incognita: Absence of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations from the National Land Cover Database and Implications for Environmental Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, K. L.; Emanuel, R. E.; Vose, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    The number of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) has increased rapidly in recent decades. Although important to food supplies, CAFOs may present significant risks to human health and environmental quality. The National land cover database (NLCD) is a publically available database of land cover whose purpose is to provide assessment of ecosystem health, facilitate nutrient modeling, land use planning, and developing land management practices. However, CAFOs do not align with any existing NLCD land cover classes. This is especially concerning due to their distinct nutrient loading characteristics, potential for other environmental impacts, and given that individual CAFOs may occupy several NLCD pixels worth of ground area. Using 2011 NLCD data, we examined the land cover classification of CAFO sites in North Carolina (USA). Federal regulations require CAFOs with a liquid waste disposal system to obtain a water quality permit. In North Carolina, there were 2679 permitted sites as of 2015, primarily in the southeastern part of the state. As poultry operations most frequently use dry waste disposal systems, they are not required to obtain a permit and thus, their locations are undocumented. For each permitted CAFO, we determined the mode of the NLCD land uses within a 50m buffer surrounding point coordinates. We found permitted CAFOS were most likely to be classified as hay/pasture (58%). An additional 13% were identified as row crops, leaving 29% as a non-agricultural land cover class, including wetlands (12%). This misclassification of CAFOs can have implications for environmental management and public policy. Scientists and land managers need access to better spatial data on the distribution of these operations to monitor the environmental impacts and identify the best landscape scale mitigation strategies. We recommend adding a new land cover class (concentrated animal operations) to the NLCD database.

  12. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  13. Harmful Chemicals in Soil and Risk Assessment of an Abandoned Open Dumpsite in Eastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Huang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The concentrations of pollutants in soil samples collected in and around a dumpsite in Heze, Shandong, China, were investigated, and the potential ecological and health risks of these pollutants were assessed. Seventeen soil samples from five different locations were analysed for pollution characteristics, and the target pollutants included inorganic pollutants and heavy metals as well as volatile organic compounds/semivolatile organic compounds (VOCs/SVOCs. Results showed that the mean concentration level of each pollutant from the interior area was relatively higher than that from the boundary area of the dumpsite. Inorganic pollutants and heavy metals were detected in all of the soil samples. According to potential ecological risk assessment with environmental background values of Shandong as screening values, heavy metals in majority of the samples pose low ecological risk to the ecosystem except Hg. Hg poses a considerable or very high risk because of its high levels of accumulation. In consideration of future land use pattern, human health risks derived from environmental exposure to heavy metals were assessed. Carcinogenic risk and noncarcinogenic hazards for adults are acceptable, while noncarcinogenic hazards for children exceed the safety threshold. The health risks are primarily attributed to oral exposure to As and Cr.

  14. Integrated urban flood risk assessment – adapting a multicriteria approach to a city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kubal

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk assessment is an essential part of flood risk management. As part of the new EU flood directive it is becoming increasingly more popular in European flood policy. Particularly cities with a high concentration of people and goods are vulnerable to floods. This paper introduces the adaptation of a novel method of multicriteria flood risk assessment, that was recently developed for the more rural Mulde river basin, to a city. The study site is Leipzig, Germany. The "urban" approach includes a specific urban-type set of economic, social and ecological flood risk criteria, which focus on urban issues: population and vulnerable groups, differentiated residential land use classes, areas with social and health care but also ecological indicators such as recreational urban green spaces. These criteria are integrated using a "multicriteria decision rule" based on an additive weighting procedure which is implemented into the software tool FloodCalc urban. Based on different weighting sets we provide evidence of where the most flood-prone areas are located in a city. Furthermore, we can show that with an increasing inundation extent it is both the social and the economic risks that strongly increase.

  15. Cost-benefit and risk-benefit assessment for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eichholz, G.G.

    1976-01-01

    A cost benefit assessment is an essential part of the Environmental Impact Statement submitted as part of the licensing considerations for a nuclear facility. Such an assessment forms part of the initial decision to build a nuclear facility, enters critically into the selection of a suitable site, and ultimately forms part of the design procedures to optimize engineering solutions to deal with waste-heat dissipation, treatment methods for radioactive effluent control, and land and site use. Whereas the initial decision usually can be made in purely economic terms, the latter stages involve environmental and social issues that are not readily quantified and involve a qualitative judgment of what constitutes the least, readily achievable impact. The radiological impact of the plant on the surrounding population from the release of low-level effluents can be quantified and treated as a financial ''cost.'' Alternatively it can be treated as a ''risk'' and related to other risks modern man is subjected to and can be used as a means to establish site boundaries. Both cost-benefit and risk-benefit analyses represent essentially optimization approaches to the problem of making nuclear power plants economically competitive, socially and politically acceptable, and as safe or innocuous as one can reasonably make them

  16. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  17. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  18. Urban Land Cover Mapping Accuracy Assessment - A Cost-benefit Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, T.

    2012-12-01

    One of the most important components in urban land cover mapping is mapping accuracy assessment. Many statistical models have been developed to help design simple schemes based on both accuracy and confidence levels. It is intuitive that an increased number of samples increases the accuracy as well as the cost of an assessment. Understanding cost and sampling size is crucial in implementing efficient and effective of field data collection. Few studies have included a cost calculation component as part of the assessment. In this study, a cost-benefit sampling analysis model was created by combining sample size design and sampling cost calculation. The sampling cost included transportation cost, field data collection cost, and laboratory data analysis cost. Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Modified Systematic Sampling (MSS) methods were used to design sample locations and to extract land cover data in ArcGIS. High resolution land cover data layers of Denver, CO and Sacramento, CA, street networks, and parcel GIS data layers were used in this study to test and verify the model. The relationship between the cost and accuracy was used to determine the effectiveness of each sample method. The results of this study can be applied to other environmental studies that require spatial sampling.

  19. Using a dynamic model to assess trends in land degradation by water erosion in Spanish Rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Javier; Francisco Lavado-Contador, Joaquín; Schnabel, Susanne; Pulido-Fernández, Manuel; Martínez Valderrama, Jaime

    2014-05-01

    This work presents a model aimed at evaluating land degradation by water erosion in dehesas and montados of the Iberian Peninsula, that constitute valuable rangelands in the area. A multidisciplinary dynamic model was built including weather, biophysical and economic variables that reflect the main causes and processes affecting sheet erosion on hillsides of the study areas. The model has two main and two derived purposes: Purpose 1: Assessing the risk of degradation that a land-use system is running. Derived purpose 1: Early warning about land-use systems that are particularly threatened by degradation. Purpose 2: Assessing the degree to which different factors would hasten degradation if they changed from the typical values they show at present. Derived purpose 2: Evaluating the role of human activities on degradation. Model variables and parameters have been calibrated for a typical open woodland rangeland (dehesa or montado) defined along 22 working units selected from 10 representative farms and distributed throughout the Spanish region of Extremadura. The model is the basis for a straightforward assessment methodology which is summarized by the three following points: i) The risk of losing a given amount of soil before a given number of years was specifically estimated as the percentage of 1000 simulations where such a loss occurs, being the simulations run under randomly-generated scenarios of rainfall amount and intensity and meat and supplemental feed market prices; ii) Statistics about the length of time that a given amount of soil takes to be lost were calculated over 1000 stochastic simulations run until year 1000, thereby ensuring that such amount of soil has been lost in all of the simulations, i.e. the total risk is 100%; iii) Exogenous factors potentially affecting degradation, mainly climatic and economic, were ranked in order of importance by means of a sensitivity analysis. Particularly remarkable in terms of model performance is the major role

  20. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  1. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  2. Application of ecological risk assessment to establish nonhuman environmental protection at nuclear generating stations in Ontario, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wismer, D.A.

    2004-01-01

    A screening ecological risk assessment was performed for regulatory compliance at three Ontario nuclear generating station sites to establish design requirements for a routine contaminant monitoring program and to address the need for non-contaminant stressor management. Site specific assessments went beyond traditional contaminant risk assessment to include stressors associated with land-use change, cooling water systems and site storm water runoff. Valued terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem components were selected from species lists after stakeholder consultation, and contaminants of concern were selected based on their relative loadings, and with respect to regulatory and literature-based benchmarks. Predictive modeling was used to estimate chemical and radionuclide exposures and likelihood of effects. Adverse effects on individual biota were predicted for aqueous emissions of chlorine and storm water but not for radionuclides. Retrospective analyses of past field monitoring were used to determine likelihood of effects from non-contaminant stressors. Individual-level adverse effects were observed for fish losses from cooling water withdrawal. Depending on the site and the biological species, either beneficial or adverse effects from thermal discharge and land-use change were observed. Followup studies include monitoring, laboratory study, computer modeling and mitigation. Field monitoring will generate more precise species-level estimates of intake fish losses, magnitude of fish response to thermal discharge and chlorine concentrations in near-field discharge waters. Laboratory study is determining the effectiveness of intake fish loss mitigation technology. Computer fish population models are being used to design field studies and interpret individual level effects. Mitigation includes storm water controls and habitat biodiversity management projects to offset past losses from site development and construction. Routine contaminant monitoring is planned to

  3. Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

  4. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  5. Carbon emissions risk map from deforestation in the tropical Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ometto, J.; Soler, L. S.; Assis, T. D.; Oliveira, P. V.; Aguiar, A. P.

    2011-12-01

    Assis, Pedro Valle This work aims to estimate the carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon associated to the risk assessment of future land use change. The emissions are estimated by incorporating temporal deforestation dynamics, accounting for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity in the region, as well secondary forest growth dynamic in abandoned areas. The land cover change model that supported the risk assessment of deforestation, was run based on linear regressions. This method takes into account spatial heterogeneity of deforestation as the spatial variables adopted to fit the final regression model comprise: environmental aspects, economic attractiveness, accessibility and land tenure structure. After fitting a suitable regression models for each land cover category, the potential of each cell to be deforested (25x25km and 5x5 km of resolution) in the near future was used to calculate the risk assessment of land cover change. The carbon emissions model combines high-resolution new forest clear-cut mapping and four alternative sources of spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types. The risk assessment map of CO2 emissions, was obtained by crossing the simulation results of the historical land cover changes to a map of aboveground biomass contained in the remaining forest. This final map represents the risk of CO2 emissions at 25x25km and 5x5 km until 2020, under a scenario of carbon emission reduction target.

  6. Transmission risk assessment of invasive fluke Fascioloides magna using GIS-modelling and multicriteria analysis methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juhásová L.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The combination of multicriteria analysis (MCA, particularly analytic hierarchy process (AHP and geographic information system (GIS were applied for transmission risk assessment of Fascioloides magna (Trematoda; Fasciolidae in south-western Slovakia. Based on the details on F. magna life cycle, the following risk factors (RF of parasite transmission were determined: intermediate (RFIH and final hosts (RFFH (biological factors, annual precipitation (RFAP, land use (RFLU, flooded area (RFFA, and annual mean air temperature (RFAT (environmental factors. Two types of risk analyses were modelled: (1 potential risk analysis was focused on the determination of the potential risk of parasite transmission into novel territories (data on F. magna occurrence were excluded; (2 actual risk analysis considered also the summary data on F. magna occurrence in the model region (risk factor parasite occurrence RFPO included in the analysis. The results of the potential risk analysis provided novel distribution pattern and revealed new geographical area as the potential risk zone of F. magna occurrence. Although the actual risk analysis revealed all four risk zones of F. magna transmission (acceptable, moderate, undesirable and unacceptable, its outputs were significantly affected by the data on parasite occurrence what reduced the informative value of the actual transmission risk assessment.

  7. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  8. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. The Significance of Land Cover Delineation on Soil Erosion Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efthimiou, Nikolaos; Psomiadis, Emmanouil

    2018-04-25

    The study aims to evaluate the significance of land cover delineation on soil erosion assessment. To that end, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) was implemented at the Upper Acheloos River catchment, Western Central Greece, annually and multi-annually for the period 1965-92. The model estimates soil erosion as the linear product of six factors (R, K, LS, C, and P) considering the catchment's climatic, pedological, topographic, land cover, and anthropogenic characteristics, respectively. The C factor was estimated using six alternative land use delineations of different resolution, namely the CORINE Land Cover (CLC) project (2000, 2012 versions) (1:100,000), a land use map conducted by the Greek National Agricultural Research Foundation (NAGREF) (1:20,000), a land use map conducted by the Greek Payment and Control Agency for Guidance and Guarantee Community Aid (PCAGGCA) (1:5,000), and the Landsat 8 16-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset (30 m/pixel) (two approximations) based on remote sensing data (satellite image acquired on 07/09/2016) (1:40,000). Since all other factors remain unchanged per each RUSLE application, the differences among the yielded results are attributed to the C factor (thus the land cover pattern) variations. Validation was made considering the convergence between simulated (modeled) and observed sediment yield. The latter was estimated based on field measurements conducted by the Greek PPC (Public Power Corporation). The model performed best at both time scales using the Landsat 8 (Eq. 13) dataset, characterized by a detailed resolution and a satisfactory categorization, allowing the identification of the most susceptible to erosion areas.

  10. Lead concentrations and risk exposure assessment in surface soils ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated lead concentrations in < 250 μm and < 75 μm of deposited dust and< 2000 μm, < 250 μm, and < 75 μm of surface soils at undeveloped residential lands leased to auto-mechanic artisans for a minimum of ten years and estimated exposure risk for children that will reside on the polluted lands after the ...

  11. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  12. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  13. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  14. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  15. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  16. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  17. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  18. The German-Chinese research collaboration YANGTZE-GEO: Assessing the geo-risks in the Three Gorges Reservoir area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schönbrodt, S.; Behrens, T.; Bieger, K.; Ehret, D.; Frei, M.; Hörmann, G.; Seeber, C.; Schleier, M.; Schmalz, B.; Fohrer, N.; Kaufmann, H.; King, L.; Rohn, J.; Subklew, G.; Xiang, W.

    2012-04-01

    The river impoundment by The Three Gorges Dam leads to resettlement and land reclamation on steep slopes. As a consequence, ecosystem changes such as soil erosion, mass movements, and diffuse sediment and matter fluxes are widely expected to increase rapidly. In order to assess and analyse those ecosystem changes, the German-Chinese joint research project YANGTZE-GEO was set up in 2008. Within the framework of YANGTZE-GEO five German universities (Tuebingen, Erlangen, Giessen, Kiel, Potsdam) conducted studies on soil erosion, mass movements, diffuse matter inputs, and land use change and vulnerability in close collaboration with Chinese scientists. The Chinese partners and institutions are according to their alphabetic order of hometown the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CRAES; Beijing), the Standing Office of the State Council Three Gorges Project Construction Committee (Beijing), the National Climate Centre (NCC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA; Beijing), the Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing for Land and Resources (AES; Beijing), the Nanjing University, the CAS Institute of Soil Science (Nanjing), the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology at CAS (NIGLAS; Nanjing), the China University of Geosciences (CUG; Wuhan), the CAS Institute of Hydrobiology (Wuhan), and the China Three Gorges University (Yichang). The overall aim of YANGTZE-GEO is the development of a risk assessment and forecasting system to locate high risk areas using GIS-based erosion modelling, data mining tools for terrace condition analysis and landslide recognition, eco-hydrological modelling for diffuse matter inputs, and state-of-the-art remote sensing to assess the landscape's vulnerability. Furthermore, the project aims at the recommendation of sustainable land management systems. YANGTZE-GEO showed the relevance of such research and crucially contributes to the understanding of the dimension and dynamics of the ecological consequences of

  19. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  20. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  1. Economic impacts of current-use assessment of rural land in the east Texas pineywoods region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford A. Hickman; Kevin D. Crowther

    1991-01-01

    Those provisions of Texas law that authorize optional current-use property tax assessment for forest and other rural land were studied to: (1) estimate the extent of adoption by qualifying property owners, (2) estimate the effects on assessments and taxes of enrolled land, (3) estimate the impacts on revenues received by local units of government, (4) estimate the...

  2. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  3. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  4. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  5. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  6. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  7. Women's land ownership and risk of HIV infection in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchomba, Felix M; Wang, Julia Shu-Huah; Agosta, Laura Maria

    2014-08-01

    Theory predicts that land ownership empowers women to avoid HIV acquisition by reducing their reliance on risky survival sex and enhancing their ability to negotiate safer sex. However, this prediction has not been tested empirically. Using a sample of 5511 women working in the agricultural sector from the 1998, 2003 and 2008-09 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys, we examined the relationship between women's land ownership and participation in transactional sex, multiple sexual partnerships and unprotected sex, and HIV infection status. We controlled for demographic characteristics and household wealth, using negative binomial and logistic regression models. Women's land ownership was associated with fewer sexual partners in the past year (incidence rate ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95-1.00) and lower likelihood of engaging in transactional sex (odds ratio [OR], 0.67; 95% CI: 0.46-0.99), indicators of reduced survival sex, but was not associated with unprotected sex with casual partners (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.35-1.18) or with unprotected sex with any partner among women with high self-perceived HIV risk (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.57-1.84), indicating no difference in safer sex negotiation. Land ownership was also associated with reduced HIV infection among women most likely to engage in survival sex, i.e., women not under the household headship of a husband (OR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.18-0.89), but not among women living in husband-headed households, for whom increased negotiation for safer sex would be more relevant (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 0.92-3.29). These findings suggest that reinforcing women's land rights may reduce reliance on survival sex and serve as a viable structural approach to HIV prevention, particularly for women not in a husband's household, including unmarried women and female household heads. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Ecotoxicological risk assessment linked to infilling quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrodin, Yves; Donguy, Gilles; Bazin, Christine; Volatier, Laurence; Durrieu, Claude; Bony, Sylvie; Devaux, Alain; Abdelghafour, Mohammed; Moretto, Robert

    2012-08-01

    The dredged sediments of polluted seaports now raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. This results in the need to manage them on land, raising other types of technical, economic and environmental problems. Regarding the technical and economic dimensions, traditional waste treatment methods have proved to be poorly adapted, due to very high costs and low absorbable volumes. In this context, filling quarries in coastal areas with treated sediments could represent an interesting alternative for these materials. Nevertheless, for the environmental dimension, it is necessary to demonstrate that this possibility is harmless to inland ecosystems. Consequently, a specific ecotoxicological risk assessment methodology has been formulated and tested on three sediments taken from seaboards of France, in view to providing an operational and usable tool for the prior validation of any operation to fill quarries with treated seaport sediments. This method incorporates the formulation of a global conceptual model of the scenario studied and the definition of protocols for each of its steps: the characterisation of exposures (based on a simulation of sediment deposit), the characterisation of effects (via the study of sediments ecotoxicity), and the final ecotoxicological risk assessment performed as a calculation of a risk quotient. It includes the implementation in parallel of two types of complementary approach: the "substances" approach derived from the European methodology for assessing new substances placed on the market, and the "matrix" approach which is similar to methods developed in France to assess ecological risks in other domains (waste management, polluted site management, …). The application of this dual approach to the three sediments tested led to conclude with reliability that the project to deposit sediments "1" and "2" presented a low risk for the peripheral aquatic ecosystems while sediment "3

  9. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature...... disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified...... are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic...

  10. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  11. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  12. Assessing the chemical contamination dynamics in a mixed land use stream system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonne, Anne Th; McKnight, Ursula S; Rønde, Vinni; Bjerg, Poul L

    2017-11-15

    Traditionally, the monitoring of streams for chemical and ecological status has been limited to surface water concentrations, where the dominant focus has been on general water quality and the risk for eutrophication. Mixed land use stream systems, comprising urban areas and agricultural production, are challenging to assess with multiple chemical stressors impacting stream corridors. New approaches are urgently needed for identifying relevant sources, pathways and potential impacts for implementation of suitable source management and remedial measures. We developed a method for risk assessing chemical stressors in these systems and applied the approach to a 16-km groundwater-fed stream corridor (Grindsted, Denmark). Three methods were combined: (i) in-stream contaminant mass discharge for source quantification, (ii) Toxic Units and (iii) environmental standards. An evaluation of the chemical quality of all three stream compartments - stream water, hyporheic zone, streambed sediment - made it possible to link chemical stressors to their respective sources and obtain new knowledge about source composition and origin. Moreover, toxic unit estimation and comparison to environmental standards revealed the stream water quality was substantially impaired by both geogenic and diffuse anthropogenic sources of metals along the entire corridor, while the streambed was less impacted. Quantification of the contaminant mass discharge originating from a former pharmaceutical factory revealed that several 100 kgs of chlorinated ethenes and pharmaceutical compounds discharge into the stream every year. The strongly reduced redox conditions in the plume result in high concentrations of dissolved iron and additionally release arsenic, generating the complex contaminant mixture found in the narrow discharge zone. The fingerprint of the plume was observed in the stream several km downgradient, while nutrients, inorganics and pesticides played a minor role for the stream health. The

  13. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  14. [Risk assessment and countermeasure of BTEX in pesticide factory].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Bo; Wang, Tie-Yu; Du, Li-Yu; Tan, Bing; Zhu, Zhao-Yun; Lu, Yong-Long

    2013-07-01

    BTEX are important environmental pollutants, harmful to human through respiratory inhalation, digestive tract and skin contact, and also have teratogenic, mutagenic and carcinogenic effects. BTEX were detected in multi-media to identify their distributions and assess their human health risk in a pesticide factory in Hebei province. Purge and trap GC-MS, adsorption/thermal desorption GC chromatography and the health risk assessment model were applied, and corresponding management measures were proposed. The results showed that BTEX existed in soil, dust, air, groundwater and wastewater. The concentration of BTEX in dust of the production area was 7.33 mg x kg(-1), in particular the concentration of toluene was 5.64 mg x kg(-1), exceeding the Canadian industrial land standard. Building three scenarios for working more than 10 years, 20 years and 30 years, the total non-carcinogens index was 4.19 x10(-3), 8.25 x 10(-3) and 1.22 x 10(-2), respectively, all lower than 1; the carcinogens index of benzene was 1.70 x 10(-7), 3.34 x 10(-7) and 4.92 x 10(-7), respectively, all lower than 10(-6). It indicated that there was no significant non-carcinogens and carcinogens hazard to workers inside the factory, but they might be exposed to more health risks if their work experience increase. Finally, recommendations for improving the environmental quality and personnel security in the factory were proposed based on the research results.

  15. Supporting the risk management process with land information : a case study of Australia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Potts, Katie Elizabeth; Rajabifard, Abbas; Bennett, R.M.

    2017-01-01

    It is frequently argued that, at the parcel level, stakeholders are capable of and well supported in managing their land-related risks. Yet, evidence from the contemporary Australian context suggests otherwise: numerous large-scale disaster events have revealed that citizens are ill-prepared to

  16. The Resilience Assessment Framework: a common indicator for land management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, Annette; Metternicht, Graciela; O'Connell, Deborah

    2015-04-01

    At the Rio+20 conference in June 2013, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reinforced their mutual interests in building linkages between biodiversity conservation, sustainable land management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The UNCCD sees building resilience of agro-ecosystems as a common interest that could strengthen linkages between the conventions and deliver synergies in progressing goals of each of the conventions. Furthermore, enhancing resilience of productive agro-ecosystems is fundamental to food security and sustainable development, and thus aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Global Environment Facility (GEF) shares the interest of the conventions in building resilience in agro-ecosystems. Indicators of resilience are required for monitoring progress in these endeavors, application of a common indicator between the UNCCD, UNFCCC and CBD as a measure of both land-based adaptation and ecosystem resilience, could strengthen links between the conventions and increase attention to the broad benefits of improved land management. Consequently, the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP) to the GEF commissioned the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to produce a report reviewing the conceptual basis for resilience, and proposing an indicator approach that could meet the needs of the Conventions and the GEF for an indicator of agro-ecosystem resilience and land-based adaption. The paper presents a synthesis of scientific understanding of resilience in agro-ecosystems, reviews indicators that have been proposed, and, having concluded that none of the extant indicator approaches adequately assesses resilience of agro-ecosystems, proposes a new approach to the assessment of resilience. Recognizing that no single indicator of resilience is

  17. Analytical tools for assessing land degradation and its impact on soil quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindraban, P. S.; Mantel, S.; Bai, Z.; de Jong, R.

    2010-05-01

    Maintaining and enhancing the quality of land is of major importance to sustain future production capacity for food and other agriculture based products like fibers and wood, and for maintaining ecosystems services, including below and above ground biodiversity, provision of soil water and sequestration of carbon. Deterioration of this production base will be detrimental to the provision of the foreseen dramatic increase in human needs for goods and services. For this reason, land degradation, defined as a long-term loss in ecosystem function and productivity, has to be understood properly. Climate, soils, topography and socioeconomic activities are primary factors that can cause, by themselves or in combination, a number of temporary or permanent changes in the landscape, leading to degradation of vegetation and soils. For identifying intervention measures to prevent and revert trends of land deterioration, it is fundamental to know the extent of land degradation and to understand its impact on functional properties of land. To assess the global extent, (Bai et al. 2008) apply a remotely sensed vegetation index that describes the greenness of the vegetation cover as a proxy for biomass. Biomass production has been identified as a strong indicator for soil quality as it is an integral measure for soil, crop and environmental characteristics (Bindraban et al., 2000). Bai and colleagues observed that 24% of the global land has been degrading over the past 26 years - often in very productive areas. The relation with functional properties of land can be made through ecosystem models. Mantel et al. (1999; 2000) applied dynamic crop-soil models to calculate crop productivity at the national level. A baseline scenario that represents the current conditions and a scenario for 20 years of prolonged sheet erosion were modeled to calculate the productivity impact of topsoil erosion for wheat in Uruguay and for maize in Kenya. They concluded that topsoil erosion primarily

  18. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-01-01

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

  19. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-11-13

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

  20. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  1. Assessing Risks to Wildlife Populations from Multiple Stressors: Overview of the Problem and Research Needs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne R. Munns, Jr.

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife populations are experiencing increasing pressure from human-induced changes in the landscape. Stressors including agricultural and urban land use, introduced invasive and exotic species, nutrient enrichment, direct human disturbance, and toxic chemicals directly or indirectly influence the quality and quantity of habitat used by terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. Governmental agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are required to assess risks to wildlife populations, in its broadest definition, that result from exposure to these stressors, yet considerable uncertainty exists with respect to how such assessments should be conducted. This uncertainty is compounded by questions concerning the interactive effects of co-occurring stressors, appropriate spatial scales of analysis, extrapolation of response data among species and from organisms to populations, and imperfect knowledge and use of limited data sets. Further, different risk problems require varying degrees of sophistication, methodological refinement, and data quality. These issues suggest a number of research needs to improve methods for wildlife risk assessments, including continued development of population dynamics models to evaluate the effects of multiple stressors at varying spatial scales, methods for extrapolating across endpoints and species with reasonable confidence, stressor-response relations and methods for combining them in predictive and diagnostic assessments, and accessible data sets describing the ecology of terrestrial and aquatic species. Case study application of models and methods for assessing wildlife risk will help to demonstrate their strengths and limitations for solving particular risk problems.

  2. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  3. Rapid Fishery Assessment by Market Survey (RFAMS--an improved rapid-assessment approach to characterising fish landings in developing countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William T White

    Full Text Available The complex multi-gear, multi-species tropical fisheries in developing countries are poorly understood and characterising the landings from these fisheries is often impossible using conventional approaches. A rapid assessment method for characterising landings at fish markets, using an index of abundance and estimated weight within taxonomic groups, is described. This approach was developed for contexts where there are no detailed data collection protocols, and where consistent data collection across a wide range of fisheries types and geographic areas is required, regardless of the size of the site and scale of the landings. This methodology, which was demonstrated at seven fish landing sites/fish markets in southern Indonesia between July 2008 and January 2011, provides a rapid assessment of the abundance and diversity in the wild catch over a wide variety of taxonomic groups. The approach has wider application for species-rich fisheries in developing countries where there is an urgent need for better data collection protocols, monitoring future changes in market demographics, and evaluating health of fisheries.

  4. Remote sensing in Michigan for land resource management: Highway impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    An existing section of M-14 freeway constructed in 1964 and a potential extension from Ann Arbor to Plymouth, Michigan provided an opportunity for investigating the potential uses of remote sensing techniques in providing projective information needed for assessing the impact of highway construction. Remote sensing data included multispectral scanner imagery and aerial photography. Only minor effects on vegetation, soils, and land use were found to have occurred in the existing corridor. Adverse changes expected to take place in the corridor proposed for extension of the freeway can be minimized by proper design of drainage ditches and attention to good construction practices. Remote sensing can be used to collect and present many types of data useful for highway impact assessment on land use, vegetation categories and species, soil properties and hydrologic characteristics.

  5. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  6. Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

  7. Flood risk assessment. Case of study: Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Novelo-Casanova

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to its geographical location, the community of Motozintla de Mendoza (Motozintla in the State of Chiapas, Mexico, is continuously exposed to the impact of natural hazards. In this work, we assessed the flood risk of Motozintla considering the structural, socioeconomic, organizational, and global (structural, socioeconomic, and organizational vulnerabilities. In addition, we also measured the local risk perception. Spatial maps were generated to determine the most vulnerable and risk areas of this community. Our results indicate that the population has a high level of risk to flooding mainly because (1 the majority of the local houses has high structural vulnerability; (2 a high percentage of the families has a daily income less than the official Mexican minimum wage and lacks of basic public services as well as of proper social security services; (3 most of the community does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan; and (4 the community organization for disaster mitigation and response is practically non-existent. For these reasons, we believe that it is necessary for local authorities to establish in the short-term, preparedness, mitigation and response plans as well as land-use measures to reduce the risk to floods in Motozintla.

  8. Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pásztor

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover. Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5′ resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0–5 cm layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc., to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.

  9. A state-impact-state methodology for assessing environmental impact in land use planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Potter, Rebecca; Li, Yingkui

    2014-01-01

    The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application of LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: • A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). • Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. • The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. • The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. • The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level

  10. A state-impact-state methodology for assessing environmental impact in land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Longgao [Institute of land resources, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Yang, Xiaoyan [Institute of land resources, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116 (China); School of Environmental Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Chen, Longqian, E-mail: cumt_chenlongqian@163.com [School of Environmental Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Potter, Rebecca; Li, Yingkui [Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States)

    2014-04-01

    The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application of LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: • A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). • Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. • The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. • The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. • The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level.

  11. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  12. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  13. Risk-based remediation of polluted sites: A critical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppusamy, Saranya; Venkateswarlu, Kadiyala; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Mayilswami, Srinithi; Lee, Yong Bok

    2017-11-01

    Sites contaminated with chemical pollutants represent a growing challenge, and remediation of such lands is of international concern. Risk-based land management (RBLM) is an emerging approach that integrates risk assessment practices with more traditional site-specific investigations and remediation activities. Developing countries are yet to adopt RBLM strategies for remediation. RBLM is considered to be practical, scientifically defensible and cost-efficient. However, it is inherently limited by: firstly, the accuracy of risk assessment models used; secondly, ramifications of the fact that they are more likely to leave contamination in place; and thirdly, uncertainties involved and having to consider the total concentrations of all contaminants in soils that overestimate the potential risks from exposure to the contaminants. Consideration of contaminant bioavailability as the underlying basis for risk assessment and setting remediation goals of those contaminated lands that pose a risk to environmental and human health may lead to the development of a more sophisticated risk-based approach. However, employing the bioavailability concept in RBLM has not been extensively studied and/or legalized. This review highlights the extent of global land contamination, and the concept of risk-based assessment and management of contaminated sites including its advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, the concept of bioavailability-based RBLM strategy has been proposed, and the challenges of RBLM and the priority areas for future research are summarized. Thus, the present review may help achieve a better understanding and successful implementation of a sustainable bioavailability-based RBLM strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  15. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT ON LAND-USE PLANNING-A Case Study of Changchun Economic and Technological Zone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The study centers on the necessity, the workflow and the synthetically integrated methods (Principal Component Analysis(PCA), AndyticalHierarchyProcess(AHP) andFuzzy ComprerhensiveEvaluation(FCE)) of strategic environment assessment (SEA) on land-use planning. The whole article includes three main parts: firstly, some attributedatabase, graphic-base and the spatial transform matrix, which reflect the change of regional land-use pattern, can be obtained by GIS technique; secondly, adopting fitting method of trend-surface analysis will convert environment monitoringdata from scattered spots to regular control spots, based on which we can perform regional environment impact assessment; finally, Changchun Economic and Technological Developmen Zone is chosen as a case study on land-use planning.Through those efforts the results may be obtained as follows: 1 ) according to transform matrix, the possibility of transformation from one land-use to another can be obtained after the planning is carried out; 2) environment quality would changeas a result of the change of land-nsc pattern; 3) the SEA on land-use plan is an effective tool to make land-use patternmore reasonable.

  16. Assessing the Accuracy of MODIS-NDVI Derived Land-Cover Across the Great Lakes Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    This research describes the accuracy assessment process for a land-cover dataset developed for the Great Lakes Basin (GLB). This land-cover dataset was developed from the 2007 MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 16-day composite (MOD13Q) 250 m time-series data. Tr...

  17. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  18. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  19. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  20. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  1. Payloads development for European land mobile satellites: A technical and economical assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrotta, G.; Rispoli, F.; Sassorossi, T.; Spazio, Selenia

    1990-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) has defined two payloads for Mobile Communication; one payload is for pre-operational use, the European Land Mobile System (EMS), and one payload is for promoting the development of technologies for future mobile communication systems, the L-band Land Mobile Payload (LLM). A summary of the two payloads and a description of their capabilities is provided. Additionally, an economic assessment of the potential mobile communication market in Europe is provided.

  2. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  3. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  4. Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Blöchl

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.

  5. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  6. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  7. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  8. Landslide risk assessment and landslide disaster risk management: on the missing link between scientific knowledge, decision making and practice (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcántara-Ayala, Irasema

    2016-04-01

    Different investigations have been developed to address the uncertainty and quality evaluations leading to improve landslide hazard and risk assessment. With no doubt, and by using a wide range of scientific and technical approaches, they have contributed to a major extent to the understanding of the dynamics of landslide processes at different scales. Nonetheless, in a similar fashion than other hazards, it has been rather difficult to assess in a precise manner the multi-dimensions of their associated vulnerability and what is more, to effectively link risk assessments with disaster risk management. Owing to the double-character of landslide events, as natural and socio-natural hazards, mass movements turn out to be very complex processes, as their occurrence is also enhanced by population growth, socio-economic inequality, urbanization processes, land-degradation, unsustainable practices and mounting hazard exposure. Disaster Risk Management rope in the actions to attain Disaster Risk Reduction. The latter aims at decreasing existing hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, in addition to strengthening resilience, and very importantly, avoiding the construction of future disaster risk (UNISDR, 2015a). More specifically, and along the same line of ideas, the new-fangled Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015-2030 (UNISDR, 2015b) points towards reducing disaster risk and losses by engaging in a series of actions at local, national and global levels. Among them and of utterly significance are those initiatives related to the need of moving from risk assessment into disaster risk management. Consequently, and beyond championing scientific and technical capacity to strengthen landslide knowledge to assess vulnerability, hazard exposure and disaster risks, the challenge remains in the realm of promoting and improving permanent communication, dialogue and partnership among the science and technology communities, policymakers and other stakeholders

  9. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  10. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  11. Land Suitability Assessment for Sugarcane in "Herois de Caxito" (Angola

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baert, G.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The suitability of the soils surrounding the sugarcane plantation at "Herois de Caxito" (7068 ha is assessed. The main goal is to identify land suitability for the enlargement of the present plantation, using FAO land evaluation models (modified to suit Herois de Caxito conditions and GIS. Calculations of the radiationthermal production potential (RPP, land production potential (LPP, irrigation suitability index, and evaluation of the irrigation water quality are done. The water-limited production potential (WPP is found equal to the RPP, because water needs were fully met under irrigation. Maps showing the spatial distribution of the LPP and the suitability for irrigation are generated. The matching of irrigation and fertility indices has shown that, about 40% of the soils with good fertility for sugarcane production present low suitability for irrigation, the main limitations being the very fine texture and the drainage. The available surface water at Herois de Caxito (Dande river is of very good quality for irrigation of sugarcane.

  12. Risk assessment of desertification using GIS in parts of Mond Basin, Southern Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masoudi, M.; Asrari, E.

    2009-01-01

    The present paper attempts to evolve a new model by considering various indicators of different types of land degradation desertification, namely water erosion, soil salinity, vegetation degradation, and lowering of ground water table. the Mond river basin, located centrally to this zone, has been selected as a test area to assess the risk and kind of desertification. For this purpose two sub basins of the Payab and Quareh Aghaj have been chosen for detailed study. The thresholds for the severity classes of indicators have been established and then the hazards map for each indicator of types of desertification has been prepared in a GIS. The risk maps of water erosion, soil salinization, lowering of water table, vegetation degradation have been produced for each of the two sub basins. It was possible to distinguish the areas under actual risk from areas under potential risk of desertification types. Also areas under potential risk are classified to subclasses with different probability level to show a statistical picture of risk in future. (Author) 3 refs.

  13. Assessing the landscape context and conversion risk of protected areas using satellite data products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svancara, Leona K.; Scott, J.M.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Since the establishment of the first national park (Yellowstone National Park in 1872) and the first wildlife refuge (Pelican Island in 1903), dramatic changes have occurred in both ecological and cultural landscapes across the U.S. The ability of these protected areas to maintain current levels of biodiversity depend, at least in part, on the integrity of the surrounding landscape. Our objective was to quantify and compare the extent and pattern of natural land cover, risk of conversion, and relationships with demographic and economic variables in counties near National Park Service units and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service refuges with those counties distant from either type of protected area in the coterminous United States. Our results indicate that landscapes in counties within 10 km of both parks and refuges and those within 10 km of just parks were more natural, more intact, and more protected than those in counties within 10 km of just refuges and counties greater than 10 km from either protected area system. However, they also had greater human population density and change in population, indicating potential conversion risk since the percent of landscape protected averaged  2) in 76% of counties near both parks and refuges, 81% of counties near just parks, 91% of counties near just refuges, and 93% of distant counties. Thirteen percent of counties in the coterminous U.S. had moderate to high amounts of natural land cover (> 60%), low protection ( 20%). Although these areas are not the most critically endangered, they represent the greatest conservation opportunity, need, and urgency. Our approach is based on national level metrics that are simple, general, informative, and can be understood by broad audiences and by policy makers and managers to assess the health of lands surrounding parks and refuges. Regular monitoring of these metrics with satellite data products in counties surrounding protected areas provides a consistent, national level

  14. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 1. Estimating the burden of disease associated with pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, Robin; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

    2014-08-19

    The environmental performance of wastewater and sewage sludge management is commonly assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA), whereas pathogen risk is evaluated with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study explored the application of QMRA methodology with intent to include pathogen risk in LCA and facilitate a comparison with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA. Pathogen risk was estimated for a model wastewater treatment system (WWTS) located in an industrialized country and consisting of primary, secondary, and tertiary wastewater treatment, anaerobic sludge digestion, and land application of sewage sludge. The estimation was based on eight previous QMRA studies as well as parameter values taken from the literature. A total pathogen risk (expressed as burden of disease) on the order of 0.2-9 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year of operation was estimated for the model WWTS serving 28,600 persons and for the pathogens and exposure pathways included in this study. The comparison of pathogen risk with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA is detailed in part 2 of this article series.

  15. Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Butsic, Van; Bar-Massada, Avi; Keeley, Jon E.; Tracey, Jeff A.; Fisher, Robert N.

    2016-01-01

    Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely

  16. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  17. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  18. Drop-Jump Landing Varies With Baseline Neurocognition: Implications for Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury Risk and Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Daniel C; Barth, Jeffrey T

    2016-09-01

    Neurocognitive status may be a risk factor for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Neurocognitive domains such as visual attention, processing speed/reaction time, and dual-tasking may influence ACL injury risk via alterations to neuromuscular performance during athletic tasks. However, the relationship between neurocognition and performance during athletic tasks is not yet established. Athletes with low baseline neurocognitive scores will demonstrate poorer jump landing performance compared with athletes with high baseline neurocognitive score. Controlled laboratory study. Neurocognitive performance was measured using the Concussion Resolution Index (CRI). Three-dimensional kinematic and kinetic data of the dominant limb were collected for 37 recreational athletes while performing an unanticipated jump-landing task. Healthy, nonconcussed subjects were screened using a computer-based neurocognitive test into a high performers (HP; n = 20; average CRI percentile, 78th) and a low performers (LP; n = 17; average CRI percentile, 41st) group. The task consisted of a forward jump onto a force plate with an immediate rebound to a second target that was assigned 250 milliseconds before landing on the force plate. Kinematic and kinetic data were obtained during the first jump landing. The LP group demonstrated significantly altered neuromuscular performance during the landing phase while completing the jump-landing task, including significantly increased peak vertical ground-reaction force (mean ± SD of LP vs HP: 1.81 ± 0.53 vs 1.38 ± 0.37 body weight [BW]; P knee abduction moment (0.47 ± 0.56 vs 0.03 ± 0.64 BW × body height; P = .03), and knee abduction angle (6.1° ± 4.7° vs 1.3° ± 5.6°; P = .03), as well as decreased trunk flexion angle (9.6° ± 9.6° vs 16.4° ± 11.2°; P knee kinematic and kinetic patterns that are linked to ACL injury. Neurocognitive testing using the CRI may be useful for identification of athletes at elevated risk for future ACL

  19. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  20. THE PRODUCTIVE POTENTIAL OF THE LAND AND ITS ASSESSMENT PRINCIPLES IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Butenko E.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Getting the maximum economic effect on agricultural lands without environmental performance needs to restore these areas. The main objective of optimum utilization of land resources is a process of territorial organization, in which the need to apply the most effective option to use the whole complex of land resources for the greatest productive potential of agricultural land. The concept of "productive potential" is considered as the combination of characteristics of land and natural conditions, shaped by human society, and determine the nature of the rational use of land in the area of expanded reproduction. In general terms the maximum opportunity in the economy. The productive potential of land is not a sustainable figure. During the agricultural use of the land productive potential is constantly changing due to the gradual improvement or reduction of logistics, soil fertility and obtaining agricultural products. The productive capacity of agricultural land is proposed to assess the following indicators: a qualitative characterization of soils and agricultural technologies. These indicators are as diverse comparative calculation to be posted in stages. First of all, draws attention to the qualitative characteristics of the soil, which is the basis for growing crops. Data on basic indicators of soil to be correct and complex to define parameters of soil and expressed through generalized estimation of fertility. These figures are in agrochemical passport fields. The final calculation serves agrochemical and environmental agrochemical evaluation, filed in points. Modern agricultural technologies is a complex process operations management processes productive crops in artificial ecosystems to achieve the forecasted yields and product quality while ensuring environmental safety and some economic efficiency. Number of applied agricultural technologies depends on the complexity of environmental conditions and the level of planned productivity. The

  1. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  2. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  3. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  4. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  5. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  6. Geospatial assessment of tourism impact on land environment of Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Jaydip; Sakhre, Saurabh; Gupta, Vikash; Vijay, Ritesh; Pathak, Sunil; Biniwale, Rajesh; Kumar, Rakesh

    2018-03-01

    India's tourism industry has emerged as a leading industry with a potential to grow further in the next few decades. Dehradun, one of the famous tourist places in India located in the state of Uttarakhand, attracts tourist from all over the country and abroad. The surge in tourist number paved the way for new infrastructure projects like roads, buildings, and hotels, which in turn affects the topography of the mountainous region. In this study, remote sensing and GIS techniques have been used to assess the impact of tourism on the land environment of Dehradun. Satellite images of the years 1972, 2000, and 2016 were analyzed using object-based image analysis (OBIA) to derive land use and land cover (LULC) and ASTER-DEM (Digital Elevation Model) was used to determine the topography of the study area. LULC classification includes built-up, vegetation, forest, scrub, agriculture, plantation, and water body. The slope of the region was categorized as gentle, moderate, strong, extreme, steep, and very steep. To assess the sprawl of built-up on high terrain land, built-up class of LULC was overlaid on slope classes. The overlay analysis reveals that due to increase in tourism, the land use in terms of the built-up area has been extended from gentle slope to very steep slope. The haphazard construction on the extreme, steep, and very steep slope is prone to landslide and other natural disasters. For this, landslide susceptibility maps have also been generated using multicriteria evaluation (MCE) techniques to prevent haphazard construction and to assist in further planning of Dehradun City. This study suggests that a proper developmental plan of the city is essential which follows the principles of optimum use of land and sustainable tourism.

  7. Assessing the Effects of ‘Stand-alone’ Structuration of Land Administration System on Urban Land Delivery and Accessibility in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akinbola Kazeem Bolayemi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency and effectiveness of land administration system had been acknowledged to be premised on so many factors, arguably the chief of which, is the degree of mutuality, frictionlessness and bi-directionality in the interrelationship that exist amongst the various factors that are discharging arrays of tasks that these formal lands regulo-administrative machineries are saddled with. Undoubtedly, this simple conduct of affairs resultantly drives the formal lands delivery, hence it increases accessibility to urban lands by several categories of users in Nigeria, as thus the case globally. However, these interrelationships are absent among land administration and regulation systems in Nigeria. Hence, this study intends to assess the direct and possible indirect impacts that these interrelationships fallouts have on the formal delivery and accessibility of urban lands in Nigeria, Firstly, this was done by articulating the issues involved and calibrating them into constructs, then measuring them via the following score-cards, thus: myopism, non-ingenuity, disservice, eco-financial loss, distrust, trauma, anti-growth, death, market distortion and thriving informalisation focussing on the South Western Nigeria. Out of the total 586 individuals considered as the total population for the sample space, 120 individual qualified for the sample frame, upon which the structured questionnaires were distributed among land regulators, land administrators, independent land consultants and ultimate land users, essentially to have a fair and broad view of the issues inherent in this lands accessibility dilemma. 93 questionnaires were retrieved, out of which 87 questionnaires were valid, thus formed the basis upon which analyses were done, with emphasis on the 5 point Likert scale measurement usage, via both inferential and descriptive statistical tools. The results showed amongst other things, that unbridled relationship frictions had led to unwarranted role

  8. Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

    2012-04-01

    Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However

  9. A model for constructing sustainability assessment framework - focus on regional industrial land redevelopment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, T.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

    2014-01-01

    Sustainable development has become a critical issue for land use planning and management since the 1980s. Various sustainability assessment systems have been used to evaluate and promote sustainability in different scales. However, many literatures suggested that a sustainability assessment system

  10. Assessment of land allotment support power industry in Grati, Pasuruan Regency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzaqqi, M. A. R.

    2017-06-01

    The industrial sector is always in need of land for factory as well as other supporting facilities, on the other side of the ability of the environment (support) the uneven terrain of every area in favor of intensive activities such as industry. Land uses that are not adapted to the support power, will cause pollution, damage, disaster and loss that generally uses the environment. The purpose of this research was to assess the resources support neighborhood Grati district associated with the existence of a plan to build an industrial area in accordance with the direction of Grati utilization of space in the spatial plan of the Pasuruan Regency area. In this study of land carrying capacity power comparison capability and land use. The Analysis technique used is the technique of overlay with analysis tools namely software using the software Arcgis 10.1. The parameters of the ability of land-adapted to the characteristics of the land for industry, namely the slope the slope ranges 0-25% on the slope of 25-45% can be developed with industry improvement area contours, and on a slope above 45% not allocated as an industrial area, the type of soil that is not easy slopes, the intensity of the rain of less than 3000 mm, potential landslide and flood-prone lowlands. Each parameter will be provided scoring between 1-5. Score of 1 was given to the condition of land the most harm, and a score of 5 is given for the condition of the land which supports most of the location industry. The result scoring is divided in 5 clases those are bad (5-9), is bad (9.1-13), medium (13.1), good (17,1-9) and good (21.1-25). The need for industrial land, calculated from the vast land of existing industries. Based on research results, obtained the ability to land on the area of research has 3 classes of 5 classes, i.e. good, moderate and bad. The results of the comparison between the broad capabilities and the needs of the farm industry, it can be concluded that the power of the land to support

  11. Ecological risk assessment of ecosystem services in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xibao; Yang, Guishan; Tan, Yan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Li, Hengpeng; Wan, Rongrong; Su, Weizhong; Zhang, Jian

    2016-06-01

    There are tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges in evaluating the impact of land-use change on the degradation of ecosystem services (ES) at the regional scale. This study addresses these challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology based on the Procedure for Ecological Tiered Assessment of Risk (PETAR). This novel methodology integrates ecological models with a land-use change model. This study quantifies the multi-dimensional degradation risks of ES in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) of China from 1985 to 2020. Four key ES related to water purification, water quantity adjustment, carbon sequestration and grain production are selected. The study employs models of Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC), Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP), Biome-BGC and Agro-ecological Zoning (AEZ) for assimilations. Land-use changes by 2020 were projected using a geographically weighted multinomial logit-cellular automata (GWML-CA) model. The results show that rapid land-use change has posed a great degradation risk of ES in the region in 1985-2020. Slightly less than two-thirds of the basin experienced degradation of ES over the 1985-2010 period, and about 12% of the basin will continue to experience degradation until 2020. Hot spots with severe deterioration in 2010-2020 are projected to be centered around some small and less developed cities in the region. Regulating accelerated urban sprawl and population growth, reinforcing current environmental programs, and establishing monitoring systems for observing dynamics of regional ES are suggested as practical counter-measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. The SAMCO Web-platform for resilience assessment in mountainous valleys impacted by landslide risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandjean, Gilles; Thomas, Loic; Bernardie, Severine

    2016-04-01

    The ANR-SAMCO project aims to develop a proactive resilience framework enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks. The project aims to elaborate methodological tools to characterize and measure ecosystem and societal resilience from an operative perspective on three mountain representative case studies. To achieve this objective, the methodology is split in several points: (1) the definition of the potential impacts of global environmental changes (climate system, ecosystem e.g. land use, socio-economic system) on landslide hazards, (2) the analysis of these consequences in terms of vulnerability (e.g. changes in the location and characteristics of the impacted areas and level of their perturbation) and (3) the implementation of a methodology for quantitatively investigating and mapping indicators of mountain slope vulnerability exposed to several hazard types, and the development of a GIS-based demonstration platform available on the web. The strength and originality of the SAMCO project lies in the combination of different techniques, methodologies and models (multi-hazard assessment, risk evolution in time, vulnerability functional analysis, and governance strategies) that are implemented in a user-oriented web-platform, currently in development. We present the first results of this development task, architecture and functions of the web-tools, the case studies database showing the multi-hazard maps and the stakes at risks. Risk assessment over several area of interest in Alpine or Pyrenean valleys are still in progress, but the first analyses are presented for current and future periods for which climate change and land-use (economical, geographical and social aspects) scenarios are taken into account. This tool, dedicated to stakeholders, should be finally used to evaluate resilience of mountainous regions since multiple scenarios can be tested and compared.

  13. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  15. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  16. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  17. Summary of EPA's risk assessment results from the analysis of alternative methods of low-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.; Hung, C.Y.; Meyer, G.L.; Rogers, V.C.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation of the potential health risk and individual exposure from a broad number of disposal alternatives is an important part of EPA's program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive wastes (LLW). The Agency has completed an analysis of the potential population health risks and maximum individual exposures from ten disposal methods under three different hydrogeological and climatic settings. This paper briefly describes the general input and analysis procedures used in the risk assessment for LLW disposal and presents their preliminary results. Some important lessons learned from simulating LLW disposal under a large variety of methods and conditions are identified

  18. Risk assessment of drought disaster in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Abstract: Drought has become an increasing concern in southern China, but the drought risk has not been adequately studied. This study presents a method for the spatial assessment of drought risk in southern China using a conceptual framework that emphasizes the combined role of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure.A drought hazard map was retrieved with a compound index of meteorological drought method in a GIS environment. Normally, a large variation in the disaster-inducing factor implies a high probability of economic/social losses caused by a drought disaster. The map indicated that areas with a higher risk of drought hazard were mainly distributed in mid-east Yunnan and the basins in eastern Sichuan.The vulnerability indices were based on climate factors as well as land use, geomorphological types, soil properties, and drainage density. The water preserving capability of purple calcareous soil in the basins in Sichuan and mid-east Yunnan, and the lateritic red soil in northeastern Guangdong is relatively weak. The main geomorphological features in Guangxi and Guangdong are hills, which leads to a serious expectation of soil and water losses. Thus, the main areas with a high risk of drought vulnerability are mid-east Yunnan and the basins in eastern Sichuan.The exposure indices were based on population density and agricultural production because population and agriculture experience the main impacts of a drought disaster. Higher exposure indices mean higher economic/social losses due to drought disasters. Areas with high exposure indices were mainly distributed in Guangdong and southern Guangxi.The overall risk was then calculated as the product of the hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The results indicated a higher risk of drought disaster in the basins in eastern Sichuan,, northeastern Yunnan, and northeastern Guangdong. The main factor influencing the risk of a drought disaster was the hazard, but the vulnerability and exposure also played important roles.

  19. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  20. INFLATE: INFlate Landing Apparatus Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koryanov, V. V. K.; Da-Poian, V. D. P.

    2018-02-01

    Our project, named INFLATE (INFlatable Landing Apparatus Technology), aims at reducing space landing risks and constraints and so optimizing space missions (reducing cost, mass, and risk and in the same time improving performance).

  1. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  2. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  3. Evaluating anthropogenic risk of grassland and forest habitat degradation using land-cover data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt Riitters; James Wickham; Timothy Wade

    2009-01-01

    The effects of landscape context on habitat quality are receiving increased attention in conservation biology. The objective of this research is to demonstrate a landscape-level approach to mapping and evaluating the anthropogenic risks of grassland and forest habitat degradation by examining habitat context as defined by intensive anthropogenic land uses at multiple...

  4. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2017-12-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  5. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2018-06-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  6. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  7. Use of agricultural land evaluation and site assessment in Linn County, Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddleston, J. Herbert; Pease, James R.; Forrest, William G.; Hickerson, Hugh J.; Langridge, Russell W.

    1987-07-01

    Oregon state law requires each county in the state to identify agricultural land and enact policies and regulations to protect agricultural land use. State guidelines encourage the preservation of large parcels of agricultural land and discourage partitioning of agricultural land and construction of nonfarm dwellings in agricultural areas. A land evaluation and site assessment (LESA) system was developed in Linn County to aid in the identification of agricultural land and provide assistance to decision makers concerning the relative merits of requests to partition existing parcels of ricultural land and introduce nonagricultural uses. Land evaluation was determined by calculating soil potential ratings for each agricultural soil in the county based on the soil potentials for winter wheat, annual ryegrass, permanent pasture, and irrigated sweet corn. Soil potential ratings were expressed on a scale of 0 to 150 points. The land evaluation score for a parcel consists of the weighted average soil potential rating for all of the soils in the parcel, weighted by the percentage of each soil present in the parcel. Site assessment was based on the size of a parcel and on the amount of existing conflict between agricultural and nonagricultural uses, particularly rural residential uses, both adjacent to and in the vicinity of a parcel. Parcel size refers to both size in relation to a typical field and size in relation to a typical farm unit. Conflict takes into account the number of nonfarm dwellings within 1/4 mile (0.4 km) of a parcel, the amount of the perimeter that adjoins conflicting land uses, and the residential density adjacent to the parcel. Empirical scales were derived for assigning points to each of the site assessment factors. Both parcel size and conflict were worth 75 points in the model. For parcel size, 45 points were allocated to field size and 30 points to farm-unit size. For conflict, 30 points were allocated to nonfarm dwellings within 1/4 mile and 45

  8. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  9. Application of Satellite Data for Early Season Assessment of Fallowed Agricultural Lands for Drought Impact Reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosevelt, C.; Melton, F. S.; Johnson, L.; Verdin, J. P.; Thenkabail, P. S.; mueller, R.; Zakzeski, A.; Jones, J.

    2013-12-01

    Rapid assessment of drought impacts can aid water managers in assessing mitigation options, and guide decision making with respect to requests for local water transfers, county drought disaster designations, or state emergency proclamations. Satellite remote sensing offers an efficient way to provide quantitative assessments of drought impacts on agricultural production and land fallowing associated with reductions in water supply. A key advantage of satellite-based assessments is that they can provide a measure of land fallowing that is consistent across both space and time. Here we describe an approach for monthly mapping of land fallowing developed as part of a joint effort by USGS, USDA, and NASA to provide timely assessments of land fallowing during drought events. This effort has used the Central Valley of California as a pilot region for development and testing of an operational approach. To provide quantitative measures of fallowed land from satellite data early in the season, we developed a decision tree algorithm and applied it to timeseries of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from Landsat TM, ETM+, and MODIS. Our effort has been focused on development of leading indicators of drought impacts in the March - June timeframe based on measures of crop development patterns relative to a reference period with average or above average rainfall. This capability complements ongoing work by USDA to produce and publicly release within-season estimates of fallowed acreage from the USDA Cropland Data Layer. To assess the accuracy of the algorithms, monthly ground validation surveys were conducted along transects across the Central Valley at more than 200 fields per month from March - June, 2013. Here we present the algorithm for mapping fallowed acreage early in the season along with results from the accuracy assessment, and discuss potential applications to other regions.

  10. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  11. Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

    2017-04-01

    The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

  12. Assessment on the Impact of Arable Land Protection Policies in a Rapidly Developing Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiadan Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the effect of arable land protection policies in China, a practical framework that integrates geographic information systems (GIS, soil quality assessment and landscape metrics analysis was employed to track and analyze arable land transformations and landscape changes in response to rampant urbanization within the Ningbo region (China from 2005 to 2013. The results showed that arable land loss and degradation have continued, despite the development of a comprehensive legal framework for arable land protection. The implementation of arable land protection policies is judged to be effective, but not entirely successful, because it guarantees the overall amount of arable land but does not consider soil quality and spatial distribution. In addition, there are distinct variations in arable land change dynamics between two temporal intervals. From 2005–2009, the transformation of arable land was diversified, with intensified conversion among arable land, built-up land, water and orchards. Moreover, many new arable land parcels were adjacent to built-up land, and are in danger of being occupied again through urban sprawl. By 2009–2013, most of the arable land was occupied by urban expansion, whereas a majority of newly increased arable land was reclaimed from coastal tideland. Although the newly increased arable land was contiguous and far from the urban area, it is of poor quality and has limited use. The permanent loss of high-quality arable land due to intensified urban sprawl may threaten sustainable development and food security on a larger scale.

  13. Phase two of Site 300's ecological risk assessment: Model verification and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, T.M.; Gregory, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    The authors completed the baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Site 300 in 1993. Using data collection and modeling techniques adapted from the human health risk assessment (HRA), they evaluated the potential hazard of contaminants in environmental media to ecological receptors. They identified potential hazards to (1) aquatic invertebrates from heavy metal contaminants in surface water, (2) burrowing vertebrates from contaminants volatilizing from subsurface soil into burrow air, and (3) grazing deer and burrowing vertebrates from cadmium contamination in surface soil. They recently began collecting data to refine the estimates of potential hazard to these ecological receptors. Bioassay results form the surface water failed to verify a hazard to aquatic invertebrates. Soil vapor surveys of subsurface burrows did verify the presence of high concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). However, they have not yet verified a true impact on the burrowing populations. The authors also completed an extensive surface soil sampling program, which identified local hot spots of cadmium contamination. In addition, they have been collecting data on the land use patterns of the deer population. Their data indicate that deer do not typically use those areas with cadmium surface soil contamination. Information from this phase of the ERA, along with the results of the HRA, will direct the selection of remedial alternatives for the site. For the ecological receptors, remedial alternatives include developing a risk management program which includes ensuring that (1) sensitive burrowing species (such as rare or endangered species) do not use areas of surface or subsurface contamination, and (2) deer populations do not use areas of surface soil contamination

  14. Life Cycle Assessment of Sago Palm, Oil Palm, and Paddy Cultivated on Peat Land

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saptarining Wulan

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The continuously increasing population growth more than food agriculture growth on the existing land, has been encouraging to this research. The land use competition for agriculture and housing purposes have caused the land use change from forest to agriculture and housing. Within forested landscapes food production, commodity agriculture, biodiversity, resource extraction and other land uses are also competing for space. The forest land use change (deforestation is one of the climate change causes. The impact of climate change among others is the uncertain climate, such as the long drought period, flood, and the extreme temperature that cause decreasing in agriculture production. Therefore, at present, many people use the marginal land, such as peat land for agriculture cultivation to increase the food agriculture production and to achieve the domestic and export demand. Indonesia has a huge peat land and the fourth biggest in the world after Rusia, Canada, and America. The focus of this study is comparing the life cycle assessment of three agriculture commodities: sago palm, oil palm, and paddy cultivated on peat land. The purpose of this research is to contribute a recommendation of the most sustainable commodity from the aspect carbon dioxide (CO2 emission among three food agriculture commodities include oil palm and paddy that currently as excellent commodities, and sago palm, the neglected indigenous plant, which are cultivated on peat land. The method applied for this research to analyze the environmental aspect using life cycle assessment (LCA started from seedling, plantation, harvesting, transportation, and production process. The analysis result reveals that sago palm is the most environmental friendly. The lowest CO2 emission (ton/ha/year is sago palm (214.75 ± 23.49 kg CO2 eq, then paddy (322.03 ± 7.57 kg CO2 eq and the highest CO2 emission (ton/ha/year is oil palm (406.88 ± 97.09 kg CO2 eq.

  15. Life Cycle Assessment of Sago Palm, Oil Palm, and Paddy Cultivated on Peat Land

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saptarining Wulan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The continuously increasing population growth more than food agriculture growth on the existing land, has been encouraging to this research. The land use competition for agriculture and housing purposes have caused the land use change from forest to agriculture and housing. Within forested landscapes food production, commodity agriculture, biodiversity, resource extraction and other land uses are also competing for space. The forest land use change (deforestation is one of the climate change causes. The impact of climate change among others is the uncertain climate, such as the long drought period, flood, and the extreme temperature that cause decreasing in agriculture production. Therefore, at present, many people use the marginal land, such as peat land for agriculture cultivation to increase the food agriculture production and to achieve the domestic and export demand. Indonesia has a huge peat land and the fourth biggest in the world after Rusia, Canada, and America. The focus of this study is comparing the life cycle assessment of three agriculture commodities: sago palm, oil palm, and paddy cultivated on peat land. The purpose of this research is to contribute a recommendation of the most sustainable commodity from the aspect carbon dioxide (CO2 emission among three food agriculture commodities include oil palm and paddy that currently as excellent commodities, and sago palm, the neglected indigenous plant, which are cultivated on peat land. The method applied for this research to analyze the environmental aspect using life cycle assessment (LCA started from seedling, plantation, harvesting, transportation, and production process. The analysis result reveals that sago palm is the most environmental friendly. The lowest CO2 emission (ton/ha/year is sago palm (214.75 ± 23.49 kg CO2 eq, then paddy (322.03 ± 7.57 kg CO2 eq and the highest CO2 emission (ton/ha/year is oil palm (406.88 ± 97.09 kg CO2 eq.

  16. Sustainability Impact Assessment of land use policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helming, K.; Pérez-Soba, M.; Tabbush, P.

    2008-01-01

    The principle of multi-functionality simultaneously considers a variety of social, economic and environmental goods and services related to land use. It is thus a key to sustainable development of land and rural areas. Land use policies seek to support the economic competitiveness and sustainable

  17. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  18. Ecotoxicological risk assessment linked to infilling quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perrodin, Yves, E-mail: perrodin@entpe.fr [Universite de Lyon, ENTPE, CNRS, UMR 5023 LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Donguy, Gilles [Universite de Lyon, ENTPE, CNRS, UMR 5023 LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Bazin, Christine [INSAVALOR, 20 avenue Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne Cedex (France); Volatier, Laurence; Durrieu, Claude [Universite de Lyon, ENTPE, CNRS, UMR 5023 LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Bony, Sylvie; Devaux, Alain [Universite de Lyon, ENTPE, CNRS, UMR 5023 LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); INRA, USC IGH, UMR LEHNA, 2, rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Abdelghafour, Mohammed; Moretto, Robert [INSAVALOR, 20 avenue Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne Cedex (France)

    2012-08-01

    The dredged sediments of polluted seaports now raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. This results in the need to manage them on land, raising other types of technical, economic and environmental problems. Regarding the technical and economic dimensions, traditional waste treatment methods have proved to be poorly adapted, due to very high costs and low absorbable volumes. In this context, filling quarries in coastal areas with treated sediments could represent an interesting alternative for these materials. Nevertheless, for the environmental dimension, it is necessary to demonstrate that this possibility is harmless to inland ecosystems. Consequently, a specific ecotoxicological risk assessment methodology has been formulated and tested on three sediments taken from seaboards of France, in view to providing an operational and usable tool for the prior validation of any operation to fill quarries with treated seaport sediments. This method incorporates the formulation of a global conceptual model of the scenario studied and the definition of protocols for each of its steps: the characterisation of exposures (based on a simulation of sediment deposit), the characterisation of effects (via the study of sediments ecotoxicity), and the final ecotoxicological risk assessment performed as a calculation of a risk quotient. It includes the implementation in parallel of two types of complementary approach: the 'substances' approach derived from the European methodology for assessing new substances placed on the market, and the 'matrix' approach which is similar to methods developed in France to assess ecological risks in other domains (waste management, polluted site management, Horizontal-Ellipsis ). The application of this dual approach to the three sediments tested led to conclude with reliability that the project to deposit sediments '1' and '2' presented a low risk for

  19. Ecotoxicological risk assessment linked to infilling quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perrodin, Yves; Donguy, Gilles; Bazin, Christine; Volatier, Laurence; Durrieu, Claude; Bony, Sylvie; Devaux, Alain; Abdelghafour, Mohammed; Moretto, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The dredged sediments of polluted seaports now raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. This results in the need to manage them on land, raising other types of technical, economic and environmental problems. Regarding the technical and economic dimensions, traditional waste treatment methods have proved to be poorly adapted, due to very high costs and low absorbable volumes. In this context, filling quarries in coastal areas with treated sediments could represent an interesting alternative for these materials. Nevertheless, for the environmental dimension, it is necessary to demonstrate that this possibility is harmless to inland ecosystems. Consequently, a specific ecotoxicological risk assessment methodology has been formulated and tested on three sediments taken from seaboards of France, in view to providing an operational and usable tool for the prior validation of any operation to fill quarries with treated seaport sediments. This method incorporates the formulation of a global conceptual model of the scenario studied and the definition of protocols for each of its steps: the characterisation of exposures (based on a simulation of sediment deposit), the characterisation of effects (via the study of sediments ecotoxicity), and the final ecotoxicological risk assessment performed as a calculation of a risk quotient. It includes the implementation in parallel of two types of complementary approach: the “substances” approach derived from the European methodology for assessing new substances placed on the market, and the “matrix” approach which is similar to methods developed in France to assess ecological risks in other domains (waste management, polluted site management, …). The application of this dual approach to the three sediments tested led to conclude with reliability that the project to deposit sediments “1” and “2” presented a low risk for the peripheral aquatic ecosystems while

  20. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  1. Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

  2. [Heavy Metals Pollution in Topsoil from Dagang Industry Area and Its Ecological Risk Assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Chen, Zong-juan; Peng, Chang-sheng; Li, Fa-sheng; Gu, Qing-bao

    2015-11-01

    Based on previous studies and field investigation of Dagang industry area in Tianjin, a total of 128 topsoil samples were collected, and contents of 10 heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Pb, Ni, V, Zn and Hg) were determined. The geoaccumulation index and geostatistics were applied to examine the degree of contamination and spatial distribution of heavy metals in topsoil. The assessment on ecological risk of heavy metals was carried out using Hakanson's method, and the main resources of the heavy metals were analyzed as well. It was found that As, Cd and Co had the highest proportions exceeding Tianjin background value, which were 100%, 97.66% and 96.88%, respectively; the heavy-metal content increased to some extent comparing with that in 2004, and the pollutions of As and Cd were the worst, and other metals were at moderate pollution level or below. The ecological risks of heavy metals were different in topsoil with different land use types, the farmland soil in the southwest as well as soils adjacent to the industrial land were at relatively high potential ecological risk level, and the integrated ecological risk index reached up to 1 437.37. Analysis of correlation and principal component showed that traffic and transportation as well as agricultural activities might be the main resources of heavy metals in the area, besides, the industrial activities in the region might also affect the accumulation of heavy metals.

  3. An interactive water indicator assessment tool to support land use planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Jansen, H.C.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an interactive web-based rapid assessment tool that generates key water related indicators to support decision making by stakeholders in land use planning. The tool is built on a consistent science based method that combines remote sensing with hydrological and socioeconomic

  4. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  5. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  6. Applying the change vector analysis technique to assess the desertification risk in the south-west of Romania in the period 1984-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorovencii, Iosif

    2017-09-26

    The desertification risk affects around 40% of the agricultural land in various regions of Romania. The purpose of this study is to analyse the risk of desertification in the south-west of Romania in the period 1984-2011 using the change vector analysis (CVA) technique and Landsat thematic mapper (TM) satellite images. CVA was applied to combinations of normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI)-albedo, NDVI-bare soil index (BI) and tasselled cap greenness (TCG)-tasselled cap brightness (TCB). The combination NDVI-albedo proved to be the best in assessing the desertification risk, with an overall accuracy of 87.67%, identifying a desertification risk on 25.16% of the studied period. The classification of the maps was performed for the following classes: desertification risk, re-growing and persistence. Four degrees of desertification risk and re-growing were used: low, medium, high and extreme. Using the combination NDVI-albedo, 0.53% of the analysed surface was assessed as having an extreme degree of desertification risk, 3.93% a high degree, 8.72% a medium degree and 11.98% a low degree. The driving forces behind the risk of desertification are both anthropogenic and climatic causes. The anthropogenic causes include the destruction of the irrigation system, deforestation, the destruction of the forest shelterbelts, the fragmentation of agricultural land and its inefficient management. Climatic causes refer to increase of temperatures, frequent and prolonged droughts and decline of the amount of precipitation.

  7. Occurrence and risk assessment of potentially toxic elements and typical organic pollutants in contaminated rural soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yongfeng; Dai, Shixiang; Meng, Ke; Wang, Yuting; Ren, Wenjie; Zhao, Ling; Christie, Peter; Teng, Ying

    2018-07-15

    The residual levels and risk assessment of several potentially toxic elements (PTEs), phthalate esters (PAEs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in rural soils near different types of pollution sources in Tianjin, China, were studied. The soils were found to be polluted to different extents with PTEs, PAEs and PAHs from different pollution sources. The soil concentrations of chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), acenaphthylene (Any) and acenaphthene (Ane) were higher than their corresponding regulatory reference limits. The health risk assessment model used to calculate human exposure indicates that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks from selected pollutants were generally acceptable or close to acceptable. Different types of pollution sources and soil physicochemical properties substantially affected the soil residual concentrations of and risks from these pollutants. PTEs in soils collected from agricultural lands around industrial and residential areas and organic pollutants (PAEs and PAHs) in soils collected from agricultural areas around livestock breeding were higher than those from other types of pollution sources and merit long-term monitoring. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. A proposal for terrain zoning for risk management focusing on land use definition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aristizabal, Edier; Hermelin, Michel

    2011-01-01

    Land use planning is an essential tool for adequate risk management, which reduce its current scenarios and avoids the construction of future ones exposed to hazards; it should be approached from a knowledge of the risk as an element associated with communities development and in particular how they occupy and how they manage territory and their resources. The disaster-development relationship is critical, and its solution requires considering planning schemes of sectorial, environmental and territories development, Although in the past 10 years considerable progress has been made in this direction, there are still difficulties for a proper incorporation of hazard and/or susceptibility maps as structural elements of land use planning and of land use suitability for development of human settlements. It is fundamental to identify measures to reduce, mitigate or eliminate hazards in urbanized, rural and expansion areas, as well as to guide the uses and appropriate treatments which can be given according to their characteristics of susceptibility to natural phenomena. This paper proposes to divide the territory in urbanized areas which are themselves divided into stable areas for building, potentially unstable areas for intervention and unstable areas for recovery; undeveloped areas which could be urbanized, are divided into areas with minimal restrictions and areas with significant restrictions; and finally undeveloped areas not to be used for urbanization, which are divided into stable areas for rural consolidation, potentially instable areas for intervention, and instable areas for recovery and conservation.

  9. Assessment of landslide risk using gis and statistical methods in kysuce region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barančoková Mária

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The landslide susceptibility was assessed based on multivariation analysis. The input parameters were represented by lithology, land use, slope inclination and average annual precipitation. These parameters were evaluated as independent variables, and the existing landslides as dependent variables. The individual input parameters were reclassified and spatially adjusted. Spatial analysis resulted in 15 988 combinations of input parameters representing the homogeneous condition unit (HCU . Based on the landslide density within individual units, the HCU polygons have been classified according to landslide risk into stable, conditionally stable, conditionally stable and unstable (subdivided into low, medium and high landslide risk. A total of 2002 HCU s were affected by landslides, and the remaining 13 986 were not affected. The total HCU area affected by landslides is about 156.92 km2 (20.1%. Stable areas covered 623.01 km2 (79.8%, and conditionally stable areas covered 228.77 km2 (29.33% out of this area. Unstable areas were divided into three levels of landslide risk - low, medium and high risk. An area of 111.19 km2 (14.3% represents low landslide risk, medium risk 29.7 km2 (3.8% and 16.01 km2 (2% represents high risk. Since Zlín Formation lithological unit covers approximately one-third of the study area, it also influences the overall landslide risk assessment. This lithological formation covers the largest area within all landslide risk classes as well as in conditionally stable areas. The most frequent slope class was in the range of 14-19. The higher susceptibility of Zlín Formation to landslides is caused mainly by different geomorphological value of claystone and sandstone sequence. The higher share of claystone results in higher susceptibility of this formation to exogenous degradation processes.

  10. Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spadoni, G; Egidi, D; Contini, S

    2000-01-07

    The paper first summarises the main aspects of the ARIPAR methodology whose steps can be applied to quantify the impact on a territory of major accident risks due to processing, storing and transporting dangerous substances. Then the capabilities of the new decision support tool ARIPAR-GIS, implementing the mentioned procedure, are described, together with its main features and types of results. These are clearly shown through a short description of the updated ARIPAR study (reference year 1994), in which the impact of changes due to industrial and transportation dynamics on the Ravenna territory in Italy were evaluated. The brief explanation of how results have been used by local administrations offers the opportunity to discuss about advantages of the quantitative area risk analysis tool in supporting activities of risk management, risk control and land-use planning.

  11. Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra D. Syphard

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  14. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  15. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  16. Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knocke, Philip C.; Wawrzyniak, Geoffrey G.; Kennedy, Brian M.; Desai, Prasun N.; Parker, TImothy J.; Golombek, Matthew P.; Duxbury, Thomas C.; Kass, David M.

    2004-01-01

    Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

  17. Assessing biodiversity loss due to land use with Life Cycle Assessment: are we there yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, Danielle M; Teixeira, Ricardo F M; Ostermann, Ole P

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystems are under increasing pressure from human activities, with land use and land-use change at the forefront of the drivers that provoke global and regional biodiversity loss. The first step in addressing the challenge of how to reverse the negative outlook for the coming years starts with measuring environmental loss rates and assigning responsibilities. Pinpointing the global pressures on biodiversity is a task best addressed using holistic models such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). LCA is the leading method for calculating cradle-to-grave environmental impacts of products and services; it is actively promoted by many public policies, and integrated as part of environmental information systems within private companies. LCA already deals with the potential biodiversity impacts of land use, but there are significant obstacles to overcome before its models grasp the full reach of the phenomena involved. In this review, we discuss some pressing issues that need to be addressed. LCA mainly introduces biodiversity as an endpoint category modeled as a loss in species richness due to the conversion and use of land over time and space. The functional and population effects on biodiversity are mostly absent due to the emphasis on species accumulation with limited geographic and taxonomical reach. Current land-use modeling activities that use biodiversity indicators tend to oversimplify the real dynamics and complexity of the interactions of species among each other and with their habitats. To identify the main areas for improvement, we systematically reviewed LCA studies on land use that had findings related to global change and conservation ecology. We provide suggestion as to how to address some of the issues raised. Our overall objective was to encourage companies to monitor and take concrete steps to address the impacts of land use on biodiversity on a broader geographical scale and along increasingly globalized supply chains. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change

  18. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt