WorldWideScience

Sample records for k-5 confidence regions

  1. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  2. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  3. An Exact Confidence Region in Multivariate Calibration

    OpenAIRE

    Mathew, Thomas; Kasala, Subramanyam

    1994-01-01

    In the multivariate calibration problem using a multivariate linear model, an exact confidence region is constructed. It is shown that the region is always nonempty and is invariant under nonsingular transformations.

  4. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  5. Confidence-building measures in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Huasun

    1991-01-01

    The regional confidence-building, security and disarmament issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular, support to non-proliferation regime and establishing nuclear-weapon-free zones are reviewed

  6. Data assimilation method based on the constraints of confidence region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yong; Li, Siming; Sheng, Yao; Wang, Luheng

    2018-03-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.

  7. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. French

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  8. A Regions of Confidence Based Approach to Enhance Segmentation with Shape Priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appia, Vikram V; Ganapathy, Balaji; Abufadel, Amer; Yezzi, Anthony; Faber, Tracy

    2010-01-18

    We propose an improved region based segmentation model with shape priors that uses labels of confidence/interest to exclude the influence of certain regions in the image that may not provide useful information for segmentation. These could be regions in the image which are expected to have weak, missing or corrupt edges or they could be regions in the image which the user is not interested in segmenting, but are part of the object being segmented. In the training datasets, along with the manual segmentations we also generate an auxiliary map indicating these regions of low confidence/interest. Since, all the training images are acquired under similar conditions, we can train our algorithm to estimate these regions as well. Based on this training we will generate a map which indicates the regions in the image that are likely to contain no useful information for segmentation. We then use a parametric model to represent the segmenting curve as a combination of shape priors obtained by representing the training data as a collection of signed distance functions. We evolve an objective energy functional to evolve the global parameters that are used to represent the curve. We vary the influence each pixel has on the evolution of these parameters based on the confidence/interest label. When we use these labels to indicate the regions with low confidence; the regions containing accurate edges will have a dominant role in the evolution of the curve and the segmentation in the low confidence regions will be approximated based on the training data. Since our model evolves global parameters, it improves the segmentation even in the regions with accurate edges. This is because we eliminate the influence of the low confidence regions which may mislead the final segmentation. Similarly when we use the labels to indicate the regions which are not of importance, we will get a better segmentation of the object in the regions we are interested in.

  9. Confidence-building in the Asia-Pacific region. Report of working group II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotton, J.

    1992-01-01

    Detailed presentations of South and North Korea offers positive evaluation concerning bilateral agreements, which aim both reconciliation between the two states and denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Consideration was given to confidence building measures in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole as well as to the progress made in introducing such measures in various Subregions of Asia-Pacific. The concept of confidence building actually implies a two-part agenda, particular procedures and general process

  10. NOTES ON OPTIMAL ALLOCATION FOR FIXED SIZE CONFIDENCE REGIONS OF THE DIFFERENCE OF TWO MULTINORMAL MEANS

    OpenAIRE

    Hyakutake, Hiroto; Kawasaki, Hidefumi

    2004-01-01

    We consider the problem of constructing a fixed-size confidence region of the difference of two multinormal means when the covariance matrices have intraclass correlation structure. When the covariance matrices are known, we derive an optimal allocation. A two-stage procedure is given for the problem with unknown covariance matrices.

  11. Confidence limits for regional cerebral blood flow values obtained with circular positron system, using krypton-77

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, E.; Yamamoto, Y.L.; Thompson, C.J.

    1978-01-01

    The 90% confidence limits have been determined for regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) values obtained in each cm 2 of a cross section of the human head after inhalation of radioactive krypton-77, using the MNI circular positron emission tomography system (Positome). CBF values for small brain tissue elements are calculated by linear regression analysis on the semi-logarithmically transformed clearance curve. A computer program displays CBF values and their estimated error in numeric and gray scale forms. The following typical results have been obtained on a control subject: mean CBF in the entire cross section of the head: 54.6 + - 5 ml/min/100 g tissue, rCBF for small area of frontal gray matter: 75.8 + - 9 ml/min/100 g tissue. Confidence intervals for individual rCBF values varied between + - 13 and + - 55% except for areas pertaining to the ventricular system where particularly poor statistics have been obtained. Knowledge of confidence limits for rCBF values improves their diagnostic significance, particularly with respect to the assessment of reduced rCBF in stroke patients. A nomogram for convenient determination of 90% confidence limits for slope values obtained in linear regression analysis has been designed with the number of fitted points (n) and the correlation coefficient (r) as parameters. (author)

  12. Spatio-Spectral Method for Estimating Classified Regions with High Confidence using MODIS Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katiyal, Anuj; Rajan, Dr K S

    2014-01-01

    In studies like change analysis, the availability of very high resolution (VHR)/high resolution (HR) imagery for a particular period and region is a challenge due to the sensor revisit times and high cost of acquisition. Therefore, most studies prefer lower resolution (LR) sensor imagery with frequent revisit times, in addition to their cost and computational advantages. Further, the classification techniques provide us a global estimate of the class accuracy, which limits its utility if the accuracy is low. In this work, we focus on the sub-classification problem of LR images and estimate regions of higher confidence than the global classification accuracy within its classified region. The spectrally classified data was mined into spatially clustered regions and further refined and processed using statistical measures to arrive at local high confidence regions (LHCRs), for every class. Rabi season MODIS data of January 2006 and 2007 was used for this study and the evaluation of LHCR was done using the APLULC 2005 classified data. For Jan-2007, the global class accuracies for water bodies (WB), forested regions (FR) and Kharif crops and barren lands (KB) were 89%, 71.7% and 71.23% respectively, while the respective LHCRs had accuracies of 96.67%, 89.4% and 80.9% covering an area of 46%, 29% and 14.5% of the initially classified areas. Though areas are reduced, LHCRs with higher accuracies help in extracting more representative class regions. Identification of such regions can facilitate in improving the classification time and processing for HR images when combined with the more frequently acquired LR imagery, isolate pure vs. mixed/impure pixels and as training samples locations for HR imagery

  13. Observations on stake holder confidence related to uranium mine waste management in the elliot lake region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonald, G.

    2003-01-01

    G. MacDonald, representing the Township of the North Shore and the Standing Environmental Committee (SEC) of the Serpent River Watershed, stated that she is a stakeholder living downstream from 175 million tonnes of acid-generating and radioactive uranium mine tailings. Public confidence in the Elliot Lake region is influenced by past mining issues: worker health concerns and difficulties in obtaining compensation; myriad observations of radium uptake; drinking water contamination issues and inequitable quality standards adverse to the Serpent River First Nation; loss of land use. Government failed to set aside funds for local monitoring of the decommissioned mining region, or to involve citizens in decisions as recommended by the Kirkwood Panel. These failures represent betrayals of trust and furthermore give public confidence little chance to improve. In these circumstances, the affected community has given attention on their own to mid- and long-term issues. At issue is not the current funding or management of the waste storage sites, but rather, creating and maintaining local knowledge and competence to monitor their management over the coming decades and generations. Concerned members of the community note that the federal government 'has done nothing long-lasting to ensure confidence', on this level. They highlight the importance of questions like: 'Do I have the knowledge to act in my best interest?' and 'Who can I trust to protect my interest?' - and have set out to answer them. (author)

  14. A some aspects of medical demographical situation in the regions, confidant to Semipalatinsk former test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slazhneva, T.I.; Korchevskij, A.A.; Tret'yakova, S.N.; Pozdnyakova, A.P.

    1993-01-01

    It had been analysed the data of mortality index and average future life span (AFLS).The data was devided in sex and age groups of Pavlodar region (Kazakstan) for the period of 1970, 1979, 1989 and given in comparison with Semipalatinsk region (Kazakstan) and Former Soviet Union. It was discovered peculiarities of demographic index dynamics for last decades: downfall of average life span of population from 1970 to 1979 with further increasing in 1989. In Semipalatinsk region the AFLS of men was decreasing to 2,19 year, women - to 1,24 year; in Pavlodar region the AFLS of men was decreasing to 3,87 year, women - to 4,3 year. Relative compensation of this effect was being marked to 1989 year: from 1979 to 1989 the AFLS index of Pavlodar region men increased to 2,93 year, women - to 1,83 year. Similar oscillations were being followed up for all age groups. Special attention is drawing to the infants mortality dynamic in the regions, confidant to Semipalatinsk test site. Radical ascent of the infants mortality in 1970-1983 period leaded to shaping of excluding unfavourable indexes (71,9 % for 1000 burned in 1975). Analysis confirmed the information of demographic indexes, as integral characteristics of population health levels and ecological equilibrium rate in the regions

  15. Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

    2008-06-01

    Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

  16. Joint confidence region estimation for area under ROC curve and Youden index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jingjing; Tian, Lili

    2014-03-15

    In the field of diagnostic studies, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) serves as an overall measure of a biomarker/diagnostic test's accuracy. Youden index, defined as the overall correct classification rate minus one at the optimal cut-off point, is another popular index. For continuous biomarkers of binary disease status, although researchers mainly evaluate the diagnostic accuracy using AUC, for the purpose of making diagnosis, Youden index provides an important and direct measure of the diagnostic accuracy at the optimal threshold and hence should be taken into consideration in addition to AUC. Furthermore, AUC and Youden index are generally correlated. In this paper, we initiate the idea of evaluating diagnostic accuracy based on AUC and Youden index simultaneously. As the first step toward this direction, this paper only focuses on the confidence region estimation of AUC and Youden index for a single marker. We present both parametric and non-parametric approaches for estimating joint confidence region of AUC and Youden index. We carry out extensive simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. In the end, we apply the proposed methods to a real data set. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. The role of unattended ground sensors (UGS) in regional confidence building and arms control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vannoni, M.; Duggan, R.

    1997-03-01

    Although the Cold War has ended, the world has not become more peaceful. Without the stability provided by an international system dominated by two super-powers, local conflicts are more likely to escalate. Agreements to counter destabilizing pressures in regional conflicts can benefit from the use of cooperative monitoring. Cooperative monitoring is the collecting, analyzing, and sharing of information among parties to an agreement. Ground sensor technologies can contribute to the collection of relevant information. If implemented with consideration for local conditions, cooperative monitoring can build confidence, strengthen existing agreements, and set the stage for continued progress. This presentation describes two examples: the Israeli-Egyptian Sinai agreements of the 1970s and a conceptual example for the contemporary Korean Peninsula. The Sinai was a precedent for the successful use of UGS within the context of cooperative monitoring. The Korean Peninsula is the world`s largest military confrontation. Future confidence building measures that address the security needs of both countries could decrease the danger of conflict and help create an environment for a peace agreement.

  18. Optimizing Your K-5 Engineering Design Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Matthew Perkins; Merz, Alice H.

    2017-01-01

    Today, elementary school teachers continue to revisit old lessons and seek out new ones, especially in engineering. Optimization is the process by which an existing product or procedure is revised and refined. Drawn from the authors' experiences working directly with students in grades K-5 and their teachers and preservice teachers, the…

  19. Identification of low-confidence regions in the pig reference genome (Sscrofa10.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda eWarr

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Many applications of high throughput sequencing rely on the availability of an accurate reference genome. Variant calling often produces large data sets that cannot be realistically validated and which may contain large numbers of false-positives. Errors in the reference assembly increase the number of false-positives. While resources are available to aid in the filtering of variants from human data, for other species these do not yet exist and strict filtering techniques must be employed which are more likely to exclude true-positives. This work assesses the accuracy of the pig reference genome (Sscrofa10.2 using whole genome sequencing reads from the Duroc sow whose genome the assembly was based on. Indicators of structural variation including high regional coverage, unexpected insert sizes, improper pairing and homozygous variants were used to identify low quality (LQ regions of the assembly. Low coverage (LC regions were also identified and analyzed separately. The LQ regions covered 13.85% of the genome, the LC regions covered 26.6% of the genome and combined (LQLC they covered 33.07% of the genome. Over half of dbSNP variants were located in the LQLC regions. Of CNVRs identified in a previous study, 86.3% were located in the LQLC regions. The regions were also enriched for gene predictions from RNA-seq data with 42.98% falling in the LQLC regions. Excluding variants in the LQ, LC or LQLC from future analyses will help reduce the number of false-positive variant calls. Researchers using WGS data should be aware that the current pig reference genome does not give an accurate representation of the copy number of alleles in the original Duroc sow’s genome.

  20. Bringing Inquiry Science to K-5 Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schachtel, Paula L.; Messina, D. L.; McDermott, L. C.

    2006-12-01

    As a science coach in the Seattle School District, I am responsible for helping other elementary teachers teach science. For several years, I have been participating in a program that consists of intensive NSF Summer Institutes and an ongoing academic-year Continuation Course. Teachers in this program work through modules in Physics by Inquiry, a research-based curriculum developed by the Physics Education Group at the University of Washington.1 I will discuss how this type of professional development has deepened my understanding of topics in physical science, helped me to teach science by inquiry to my own students, and enabled me to assist my colleagues in implementing inquiry science in their K-5 classrooms. Sponsored by Lillian C. McDermott. 1. A research-based curriculum developed by L.C. McDermott and the Physics Education Group at the University of Washington, Physics by Inquiry, New York, NY, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (1996.)

  1. Regional confidence-building by means of disarmament and democracy: Review of the first ASEAN regional forum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umebayashi, Hiromichi

    1997-01-01

    Not a single word about disarmament or arms reduction appears in the ASEAN Regional Forum 'Chairman's Statement' issued in 1994. Similarly, not a single word about human rights or democracy can be found in the document. This paper deals with the idea that disarmament and human rights must be central issues of discussion in any Asia-Pacific regional security mechanism and that the roles of non-governmental organizations must be emphasized in this process

  2. Construction of joint confidence regions for the optimal true class fractions of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) surfaces and manifolds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bantis, Leonidas E; Nakas, Christos T; Reiser, Benjamin; Myall, Daniel; Dalrymple-Alford, John C

    2017-06-01

    The three-class approach is used for progressive disorders when clinicians and researchers want to diagnose or classify subjects as members of one of three ordered categories based on a continuous diagnostic marker. The decision thresholds or optimal cut-off points required for this classification are often chosen to maximize the generalized Youden index (Nakas et al., Stat Med 2013; 32: 995-1003). The effectiveness of these chosen cut-off points can be evaluated by estimating their corresponding true class fractions and their associated confidence regions. Recently, in the two-class case, parametric and non-parametric methods were investigated for the construction of confidence regions for the pair of the Youden-index-based optimal sensitivity and specificity fractions that can take into account the correlation introduced between sensitivity and specificity when the optimal cut-off point is estimated from the data (Bantis et al., Biomet 2014; 70: 212-223). A parametric approach based on the Box-Cox transformation to normality often works well while for markers having more complex distributions a non-parametric procedure using logspline density estimation can be used instead. The true class fractions that correspond to the optimal cut-off points estimated by the generalized Youden index are correlated similarly to the two-class case. In this article, we generalize these methods to the three- and to the general k-class case which involves the classification of subjects into three or more ordered categories, where ROC surface or ROC manifold methodology, respectively, is typically employed for the evaluation of the discriminatory capacity of a diagnostic marker. We obtain three- and multi-dimensional joint confidence regions for the optimal true class fractions. We illustrate this with an application to the Trail Making Test Part A that has been used to characterize cognitive impairment in patients with Parkinson's disease.

  3. Using the confidence interval confidently.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Avijit

    2017-10-01

    Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.

  4. Perceived confidence, competence and training in evidence-based treatments for eating disorders: a survey of clinicians in an Australian regional health service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakeman, Richard; McIntosh, Christine

    2018-03-01

    Eating disorders (EDs) are challenging to treat and contribute to considerable morbidity and mortality. This study sought to identify the educational preparedness, competence and confidence of clinicians to work with people with EDs; and to identify how services might be improved. Clinicians who worked in the emergency department, medical, paediatric wards and mental health services were invited to complete an online survey. From the 136 surveys returned, 73% of respondents reported little or no confidence working with EDs. There was a strong linear correlation between perceived confidence and competence and hours of education. Those with 70 or more hours of self-reported training were 2.7 times more likely to rate themselves as both confident and competent. Improving services for people with eating disorders included the provision of appropriate training, improving access to services including psychotherapy, and facilitating consistency in and continuity of care. To increase the confidence and competence of the workforce, regular training around EDs should be undertaken. The establishment of a specialist team to provide services across the continuum of care for people with severe or complex EDs appears warranted in a regional health service.

  5. Math and Economics: Implementing Authentic Instruction in Grades K-5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althauser, Krista; Harter, Cynthia

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to outline a partnership program that involved a local elementary school district, an institution of higher education, the local business community, and a state economic education advocacy group to integrate economics into math in grades K-5. The "Economics: Math in Real Life" program was provided in…

  6. Spectroscopic properties of K5Li2UF10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karbowiak, M.; Gajek, Z.; Drozdzynski, J.

    2005-01-01

    A new uranium (III) fluoro-complex of the formula K 5 Li 2 UF 10 has been synthesised and characterised by X-ray powder diffraction and electronic absorption spectra measurements. The compound crystallises in the orthorhombic system, space group Pnma, with a = 20.723, b = 7.809, c = 6.932 A, V = 1121.89 A 3 , Z = 4 and is isostructural with its K 5 Li 2 NdF 10 and K 5 Li 2 LaF 10 analogous. The absorption spectrum of a polycrystalline sample of K 5 Li 2 UF 10 was recorded at 4.2 K in the 3500-45,000 cm -1 range and is discussed. The observed crystal-field levels were assigned and fitted to parameters of the simplified angular overlap model (AOM) and next to those of a semi-empirical Hamiltonian, which was representing the combined atomic and one-electron crystal-field interactions. The starting values of the AOM parameters were obtained from ab initio calculations. The analysis of the spectra enabled the assignment of 71 crystal-field levels of U 3+ with a relatively small r.m.s. deviation of 37 cm -1 . The total splitting of 714 cm -1 was calculated for the 4 I 9/2 ground multiplet

  7. Spectroscopic properties of K 5Li 2UF 10

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karbowiak, M.; Gajek, Z.; Drożdżyński, J.

    2005-04-01

    A new uranium (III) fluoro-complex of the formula K 5Li 2UF 10 has been synthesised and characterised by X-ray powder diffraction and electronic absorption spectra measurements. The compound crystallises in the orthorhombic system, space group Pnma, with a = 20.723, b = 7.809, c = 6.932 Å, V = 1121.89 Å 3, Z = 4 and is isostructural with its K 5Li 2NdF 10 and K 5Li 2LaF 10 analogous. The absorption spectrum of a polycrystalline sample of K 5Li 2UF 10 was recorded at 4.2 K in the 3500-45,000 cm -1 range and is discussed. The observed crystal-field levels were assigned and fitted to parameters of the simplified angular overlap model (AOM) and next to those of a semi-empirical Hamiltonian, which was representing the combined atomic and one-electron crystal-field interactions. The starting values of the AOM parameters were obtained from ab initio calculations. The analysis of the spectra enabled the assignment of 71 crystal-field levels of U 3+ with a relatively small r.m.s. deviation of 37 cm -1. The total splitting of 714 cm -1 was calculated for the 4I 9/2 ground multiplet.

  8. International workshop on transparency technology for nonproliferation cooperation in the Asia Pacific. Applications of remote monitoring and secure communications for regional confidence building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Betsill, J. David; Hashimoto, Yu

    2009-08-01

    The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) sponsored an international workshop 20-22 February 2008 on 'Transparency Technology for Nonproliferation Cooperation in the Asia Pacific - Applications of Remote Monitoring and Secure Communications for Regional Confidence Building.' The Workshop focused on identifying appropriate roles and functions for Transparency in addressing nonproliferation concerns associated with the use of nuclear energy, particularly in the East Asia region. Participants from several East Asia countries included representatives from nuclear energy research institutions, Ministries, facility operators, and non-governmental organizations. Regional participation from countries currently developing their nuclear energy infrastructure was also encouraged. Several promising students from the University of Tokyo and the Tokyo Institute of Technology, representing the next generation of nuclear energy experts, also participated in the meeting and added significant value and fresh viewpoints. The participants agreed that transparency has many roles and definitions, and that its usefulness ranges for verification and compliance with the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to building trust and confidence in the activities of the state and other regional nuclear energy stakeholders. In addition, they identified a need for further education among the professional community, public, operators, and regulators as a key factor in transparency effectiveness. Also, the education and cultivation of the next generation of nuclear energy experts was identified as crucial to the long-term success and acceptance of nuclear energy development. And finally, that the development, selection, and implementation of technology that is appropriate to the goals and participants of a transparency effort are unique to each situation and are key to the successful acceptance of cooperative transparency and regional confidence building. At the conclusion of the Workshop it was importantly

  9. Plasminogen fragments K 1-3 and K 5 bind to different sites in fibrin fragment DD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinenko, T V; Kapustianenko, L G; Yatsenko, T A; Yusova, O I; Rybachuk, V N

    2016-01-01

    Specific plasminogen-binding sites of fibrin molecule are located in Аα148-160 regions of C-terminal domains. Plasminogen interaction with these sites initiates the activation process of proenzyme and subsequent fibrin lysis. In this study we investigated the binding of plasminogen fragments K 1-3 and K 5 with fibrin fragment DD and their effect on Glu-plasminogen interaction with DD. It was shown that the level of Glu-plasminogen binding to fibrin fragment DD is decreased by 50-60% in the presence of K 1-3 and K 5. Fragments K 1-3 and K 5 have high affinity to fibrin fragment DD (Kd is 0.02 for K 1-3 and 0.054 μМ for K 5). K 5 interaction is independent and K 1-3 is partly dependent on C-terminal lysine residues. K 1-3 interacts with complex of fragment DD-immobilized K 5 as well as K 5 with complex of fragment DD-immobilized K 1-3. The plasminogen fragments do not displace each other from binding sites located in fibrin fragment DD, but can compete for the interaction. The results indicate that fibrin fragment DD contains different binding sites for plasminogen kringle fragments K 1-3 and K 5, which can be located close to each other. The role of amino acid residues of fibrin molecule Аα148-160 region in interaction with fragments K 1-3 and K 5 is discussed.

  10. Integrating the Performing Arts in Grades K-5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Rekha S.

    2012-01-01

    Research documents that the arts boost learning, build confidence, and motivate students to participate in class. How do we keep the performing arts alive in this era of increased accountability and decreased funding? Rekha S. Rajan sets the stage for a creative and practical solution with detailed, concrete examples of how to integrate the…

  11. Increased suppression of oncolytic adenovirus carrying mutant k5 on colorectal tumor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Junkai; Xiao Tian; Gu Jinfa; Wei Na; He Lingfeng; Ding Miao; Liu Xinyuan

    2008-01-01

    Angiogenesis plays a key role in the development of a wide variety of malignant tumors. The approach of targeting antiangiogenesis has become an important field of cancer gene therapy. In this study, the antiangiogenesis protein K5 (the kringle 5 of human plasminogen) has been mutated by changing leucine71 to arginine to form mK5. Then the ZD55-mK5, which is an oncolytic adenovirus expressing mK5, was constructed. It showed stronger inhibition on proliferation of human umbilical vein endothelial cell. Moreover, in tube formation and embryonic chorioallantoic membrane assay, ZD55-mK5 exhibited more effective antiangiogenesis than ZD55-K5. In addition, ZD55-mK5 generated obvious suppression on the growth of colorectal tumor xenografts and prolonged the life span of nude mice. These results indicate that ZD55-mK5 is a potent agent for inhibiting the tumor angiogenesis and tumor growth

  12. 26 CFR 1.401(k)-5 - Special rules for mergers, acquisitions and similar events. [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Special rules for mergers, acquisitions and similar events. [Reserved] 1.401(k)-5 Section 1.401(k)-5 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Bonus Plans, Etc. § 1.401(k)-5 Special rules for mergers, acquisitions and similar events. [Reserved] [T...

  13. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  14. A pharmacological profile of the high-affinity GluK5 kainate receptor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møllerud, Stine; Kastrup, Jette Sandholm Jensen; Pickering, Darryl S

    2016-01-01

    -hydroxyisoxazol-4-yl)propionate (ATPA), dihydrokainate and (2 S,4 R)−4-methyl-glutamate (SYM2081) have higher affinity at GluK3 compared to GluK5. Since some studies have indicated that GluK5 is associated with various diseases in the central nervous system (e.g. schizophrenia, temporal lobe epilepsy, bipolar...

  15. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

  16. Shikonin, vitamin K3 and vitamin K5 inhibit multiple glycolytic enzymes in MCF-7 cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing; Hu, Xun; Cui, Jingjie

    2018-05-01

    Glycolysis is the most important source of energy for the production of anabolic building blocks in cancer cells. Therefore, glycolytic enzymes are regarded as potential targets for cancer treatment. Previously, naphthaquinones, including shikonin, vitamin K 3 and vitamin K 5 , have been proven to decrease the rate of glycolysis in cancer cells, which is partly due to suppressed pyruvate kinase activity. In the present study, enzymatic assays were performed using MCF-7 cell lysate in order to screen the profile of glycolytic enzymes in cancer cells inhibited by shikonin, vitamin K 3 and vitamin K 5 , in addition to pyruvate kinase. Results revealed that hexokinase, phosphofructokinase-1, fructose bisphosphate aldolase, glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase and pyruvate kinase produced in the process of glycolysis were inhibited by shikonin, vitamin K 3 and vitamin K 5 . The results indicated that shikonin, vitamin K 3 and vitamin K 5 are chemical inhibitors of glycolytic enzymes in cancer cells and have potential uses in translational medical applications.

  17. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....

  18. Final report on the key comparison CCPR-K5: Spectral diffuse reflectance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadal, Maria; Eckerle, Kenneth L.; Early, Edward A.; Ohno, Yoshi

    2013-01-01

    The CCPR K5 key comparison on spectral diffuse reflectance was carried out in the framework of the CIPM Mutual Recognition Arrangement, by 13 national metrology institutes (MMIs) as participants. The participants were CSIR-NML (South Africa), HUT (Finland), IFA-CSIC (Spain), KRISS (Republic of Korea), MSL (New Zealand), NIM (China), NIST (United States of America), NMIJ (Japan), NPL (United Kingdom), NRC (Canada), OMH (Hungary), PTB (Germany) and VNIIOFI (Russia Federation). NIST (USA) piloted the comparison. The aim of this comparison was to check the agreement of measurement of the spectral diffuse reflectance among participants, using the measurement geometry of d/0 or 0/d in the wavelength range of 360 nm to 820 nm at 20 nm increment. The comparison was a star type comparison with the samples provided by the pilot laboratory and with the measurement sequence: Pilot-Participant-Pilot. Spectralon and matte white ceramic tiles were used as the transfer standards. Each participant received three of each type of sample and at least one sample of each type was measured three times on three separate days, and the other two samples were measured once. The report presents the description of the measurement facilities, procedures and uncertainties of all the participants as well as the results of the comparison. Measurement results from the participants and their associated uncertainties were analyzed in accordance with the Guidelines for CCPR Key Comparison Report Preparation, using weighted mean with cut-off. For the calculation of the Key Comparison Reference Value (KCRV), as agreed by the participants, the data of both samples were used for the 460 nm to 820 nm region and only the data of the Spectralon samples were used in the spectral region of 360 nm to 440 nm. The unilateral degrees of equivalence (DoE) calculated for each participant are mostly consistent within the uncertainty (k = 2) of the DoE. This international comparison of spectral diffuse reflectance

  19. Overcoming Pedagogical, Social/Cultural, and Attitudinal Barriers to Technology Integration in K-5 Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durff, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    Technology engages and increases academic achievement for K-5 students, but teachers face attitudinal, social/cultural, and pedagogical barriers when they integrate technology for student learning. Although some teachers overcome these barriers, it remains unclear how they do so. The purpose of this qualitative multiple case study was to analyze…

  20. 29 CFR 71.52 - Specific exemptions pursuant to subsection (k)(5) of the Privacy Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... (Investigative Case Tracking Systems/Audit Information Reporting Systems, USDOL/OIG), a system of records... AND ACCESS TO RECORDS UNDER THE PRIVACY ACT OF 1974 Exemption of Records Systems Under the Privacy Act § 71.52 Specific exemptions pursuant to subsection (k)(5) of the Privacy Act. (a) The following systems...

  1. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  2. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  3. Globalization of consumer confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Çelik Sadullah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and postcrisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.

  4. Interaction of Escherichia coli K1 and K5 with Acanthamoeba castellanii Trophozoites and Cysts

    OpenAIRE

    Matin, Abdul; Jung, Suk-Yul

    2011-01-01

    The existence of symbiotic relationships between Acanthamoeba and a variety of bacteria is well-documented. However, the ability of Acanthamoeba interacting with host bacterial pathogens has gained particular attention. Here, to understand the interactions of Escherichia coli K1 and E. coli K5 strains with Acanthamoeba castellanii trophozoites and cysts, association assay, invasion assay, survival assay, and the measurement of bacterial numbers from cysts were performed, and nonpathogenic E. ...

  5. Genome Sequences of Subcluster K5 Mycobacteriophages AlleyCat, Edugator, and Guillsminger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Rodney A; Slowan-Pomeroy, Tina M; Thomas, Jodi E; Ahmed, Tithe; Alexander, Katie L; Biddle, James M; Daniels, Makenzie K; Rowlett, Jenna R; Senay, Taylor E; Rinehart, Claire A; Staples, Amanda K; Rowland, Naomi S; Gaffney, Bobby L; Emmons, Christine B; Hauk, Maya D; Nguyen, Rebecca L; Naegele, Leonard; Strickland, Summer S; Briggs, Laura A; Rush, Alexander N; Saha, Sanghamitra; Sadana, Rachna; Cresawn, Steven G; Russell, Daniel A; Garlena, Rebecca A; Pope, Welkin H; Jacobs-Sera, Deborah; Hatfull, Graham F

    2017-11-09

    Bacteriophages AlleyCat, Edugator, and Guillsminger were isolated on Mycobacterium smegmatis mc 2 155 from enriched soil samples. All are members of mycobacteriophage subcluster K5, with genomes of 62,112 to 63,344 bp. Each genome contains 92 to 99 predicted protein-coding genes and one tRNA. Guillsminger is the first mycobacteriophage to carry an IS 1380 family transposon. Copyright © 2017 King et al.

  6. Heterotrophic nitrogen removal in Bacillus sp. K5: involvement of a novel hydroxylamine oxidase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yunlong; Lin, Ershu; Huang, Shaobin

    2017-12-01

    An aerobic denitrifying bacterium isolated from a bio-trickling filter treating NOx, Bacillus sp. K5, is able to convert ammonium to nitrite, in which hydroxylamine oxidase (HAO) plays a critical role. In the present study, the performance for simultaneous nitrification and denitrification was investigated with batch experiments and an HAO was purified by an anion-exchange and gel-filtration chromatography from strain K5. The purified HAO's molecular mass was determined by SDS-PAGE and its activity by measuring the change in the concentration of ferricyanide, the electron acceptor. Results showed that as much as 87.8 mg L -1 ammonium-N was removed without nitrite accumulation within 24 hours in the sodium citrate medium at C/N of 15. The HAO isolated from the strain K5 was approximately 71 KDa. With hydroxylamine (NH 2 OH) as a substrate and potassium ferricyanide as an electron acceptor, the enzyme was capable of oxidizing NH 2 OH to nitrite in vitro when the pH varied from 7 to 9 and temperature ranged from 25 °C to 40 °C. This is the first time that an HAO has been purified from the Bacillus genus, and the findings revealed that it is distinctive in its molecular mass and enzyme properties.

  7. Inter-RMO Key Comparison EUROMET.L-K5.2004: Calibration of a step gauge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prieto, Emilio; Brown, Nicholas; Lassila, Antti

    2012-01-01

    The results of the inter-RMO key comparison EUROMET.L-K5.2004 on the calibration of a step gauge are reported. Eighteen National Metrology Institutes and one Designated Institute from four different metrological regions all over the world participated in this comparison which lasted three years...... value. Due to the significant instability of the step it was also considered an artefact uncertainty. The reported uncertainties ranged from 0.045 µm to 1.2 µm (k = 1). The uncertainty of the artefact ranged from 0.018 µm (for the 20 mm face) to 0.176 µm (for the 400 mm face). The compatibility of all...... participants for measuring step gauges was demonstrated with the only exception of a participant showing very high systematic (both positive and negative) errors. Five participants communicated higher uncertainties than the corresponding approved CMCs. A set of Recommendations and Actions were agreed therefore...

  8. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  9. Targeted deletion of Atg5 reveals differential roles of autophagy in keratin K5-expressing epithelia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sukseree, Supawadee [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Medicine, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok (Thailand); Rossiter, Heidemarie; Mildner, Michael [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Pammer, Johannes [Institute of Clinical Pathology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Buchberger, Maria; Gruber, Florian [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Watanapokasin, Ramida [Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Medicine, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok (Thailand); Tschachler, Erwin [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Eckhart, Leopold, E-mail: leopold.eckhart@meduniwien.ac.at [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria)

    2013-01-11

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We generated mice lacking Atg5 and autophagy in keratin K5-positive epithelia. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Suppression of autophagy in thymic epithelium was not associated with signs of autoimmunity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Autophagy was required for normal terminal differentiation of preputial gland cells. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Autophagy-deficient cells of the preputial glands degraded nuclear DNA prematurely. -- Abstract: Autophagy contributes to the homeostasis of many tissues, yet its role in epithelia is incompletely understood. A recent report proposed that Atg5-dependent autophagy in thymic epithelial cells is essential for their function in the negative selection of self-reactive T-cells and, thus, for the suppression of tissue inflammation. Here we crossed mice carrying floxed alleles of the Atg5 gene with mice expressing the Cre recombinase under the control of the keratin K5 promoter to suppress autophagy in all K5-positive epithelia. The efficiency of autophagy abrogation was confirmed by immunoanalyses of LC3, which was converted to the autophagy-associated LC3-II form in normal but not Atg5-deficient cells, and of p62, which accumulated in Atg5-deficient cells. Mice carrying the epithelium-specific deletion of Atg5 showed normal weight gain, absence of tissue inflammation, and a normal morphology of the thymic epithelium. By contrast, autophagy-deficient epithelial cells of the preputial gland showed aberrant eosinophilic staining in histology and premature degradation of nuclear DNA during terminal differentiation. Taken together, the results of this study suggest that autophagy is dispensable for the suppression of autoimmunity by thymic epithelial cells but essential for normal differentiation of the preputial gland in mice.

  10. The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

    2017-11-01

    Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

  11. Diverse interpretations of confidence building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macintosh, J.

    1998-01-01

    This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)

  12. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    1998-07-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  13. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleminson, F.R.

    1998-01-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  14. Engineering Computer Games: A Parallel Learning Opportunity for Undergraduate Engineering and Primary (K-5 Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Michael Budnik

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present how our College of Engineering is developing a growing portfolio of engineering computer games as a parallel learning opportunity for undergraduate engineering and primary (grade K-5 students. Around the world, many schools provide secondary students (grade 6-12 with opportunities to pursue pre-engineering classes. However, by the time students reach this age, many of them have already determined their educational goals and preferred careers. Our College of Engineering is developing resources to provide primary students, still in their educational formative years, with opportunities to learn more about engineering. One of these resources is a library of engineering games targeted to the primary student population. The games are designed by sophomore students in our College of Engineering. During their Introduction to Computational Techniques course, the students use the LabVIEW environment to develop the games. This software provides a wealth of design resources for the novice programmer; using it to develop the games strengthens the undergraduates

  15. An unexpected oxidation: NaK5Cl2(S2O62 revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William T. A. Harrison

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The title compound, NaK5Cl2(S2O62 [systematic name: sodium pentapotassium dichloride bis(dithionate], arose as an unexpected product from an organic synthesis that used dithionite (S2O42− ions as a reducing agent to destroy excess permanganate ions. Compared to the previous study [Stanley (1953. Acta Cryst. 6, 187–196], the present tetragonal structure exhibits a root 2a × root 2a × c super-cell due to subtle changes in the orientations of the dithionate anions. The structure can be visualized as a three-dimensional framework of [001] columns of alternating trans-NaO4Cl2 and KO4Cl2 octahedra cross-linked by the dithionate ions with the interstices occupied by KO6Cl2 polyhedra to generate a densely packed three-dimensional framework. The asymmetric unit comprises two sodium ions (site symmetries 4 and -4, four potassium ions (site symmetries = -4, 4, 1 and 1, three chloride ions (site symmetries = 4, 4 and 2 and two half-dithionate ions (all atoms on general positions. Both dithionate ions are completed by crystallographic inversion symmetry. The crystal chosen for data collection was found to be rotationally twinned by 180° about the [100] axis in reciprocal space with a 0.6298 (13:0.3702 (13 domain ratio.

  16. Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-11-01

    People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Nuclear power: restoring public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, L.

    1986-01-01

    The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)

  18. SRNA-2K5, Proton Transport Using 3-D by Monte Carlo Techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilic, Radovan D.

    2005-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: SRNA-2K5 performs Monte Carlo transport simulation of proton in 3D source and 3D geometry of arbitrary materials. The proton transport based on condensed history model, and on model of compound nuclei decays that creates in nonelastic nuclear interaction by proton absorption. 2 - Methods: The SRNA-2K5 package is developed for time independent simulation of proton transport by Monte Carlo techniques for numerical experiments in complex geometry, using PENGEOM from PENELOPE with different material compositions, and arbitrary spectrum of proton generated from the 3D source. This package developed for 3D proton dose distribution in proton therapy and dosimetry, and it was based on the theory of multiple scattering. The compound nuclei decay was simulated by our and Russian MSDM models using ICRU 49 and ICRU 63 data. If protons trajectory is divided on great number of steps, protons passage can be simulated according to Berger's Condensed Random Walk model. Conditions of angular distribution and fluctuation of energy loss determinate step length. Physical picture of these processes is described by stopping power, Moliere's angular distribution, Vavilov's distribution with Sulek's correction per all electron orbits, and Chadwick's cross sections for nonelastic nuclear interactions, obtained by his GNASH code. According to physical picture of protons passage and with probabilities of protons transition from previous to next stage, which is prepared by SRNADAT program, simulation of protons transport in all SRNA codes runs according to usual Monte Carlo scheme: (i) proton from the spectrum prepared for random choice of energy, position and space angle is emitted from the source; (ii) proton is loosing average energy on the step; (iii) on that step, proton experience a great number of collisions, and it changes direction of movement randomly chosen from angular distribution; (iv) random fluctuation is added to average energy loss; (v

  19. Measuring psychological distress in older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders Australians: a comparison of the K-10 and K-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Bridgette J; Banks, Emily; Gubhaju, Lina; Williamson, Anna; Joshy, Grace; Raphael, Beverley; Eades, Sandra J

    2014-12-01

    To assess the cross-cultural validity of two Kessler psychological distress scales (K-10 and K-5) by examining their measurement properties among older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and comparing them to those in non-Aboriginal individuals from NSW Australia. Self-reported questionnaire data from the 45 and Up Study for 1,631 Aboriginal and 231,774 non-Aboriginal people were used to examine the factor structure, convergent validity, internal consistency and levels of missing data of K-10 and K-5. We found excellent agreement in classification of distress of Aboriginal participants by K-10 and K-5 (weighted kappa=0.87), high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha K-10: 0.93, K-5: 0.88), and factor structures consistent with those for the total Australian population. Convergent validity was evidenced by a strong graded relationship between the level of distress and the odds of: problems with daily activities due to emotional problems; current treatment for depression or anxiety; and poor quality of life. K-10 and K-5 scales are promising tools for measuring psychological distress among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders aged 45 and over in research and clinical settings. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  20. Confidence in critical care nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

  1. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  2. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  3. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  4. Effects of Vitamin K3 and K5 on Daunorubicin-resistant Human T Lymphoblastoid Leukemia Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakaoka, Eri; Tanaka, Sachiko; Onda, Kenji; Sugiyama, Kentaro; Hirano, Toshihiko

    2015-11-01

    Anticancer efficacy of vitamin K derivatives on multidrug-resistant cancer cells has been scarcely investigated. The effects of vitamins K3 and K5 on proliferation of human leukemia MOLT-4 cells and on daunorubicin-resistant MOLT-4/DNR cells were estimated by a WST assay. Apoptotic cells were detected by Annexin V and propidium iodide staining, followed by flow cytometry. Vitamins K3 and K5 significantly inhibited proliferation of leukemic cells at 10 and 100 μM (pVitamin K3 induced cell apoptosis at 10 and 100 μM in both MOLT-4 and MOLT-4/DNR cells (pVitamin K5 also increased apoptotic cells, while rather inducing necrotic cell death. Vitamins K3 and K5 suppress MOLT-4 and MOLT-4/DNR cell-proliferation partially through induction of apoptosis, and these vitamin derivatives can overcome drug resistance due to P-glycoprotein expression. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  5. Moving the School and Dancing Education: Case Study Research of K-5 Students' Experiences in a Dance Residency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Alison E.

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation chronicles the qualitative case study of a dance artist-in-residence at a diverse and inclusive K-5 school in an urban district, integrating science, social studies, physical education, music, and visual arts school curriculum and culminating in two public performances. This study focused on how students made meaning through this…

  6. Methodology for building confidence measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramson, Aaron L.

    2004-04-01

    This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.

  7. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  8. Leadership by Confidence in Teams

    OpenAIRE

    Kobayashi, Hajime; Suehiro, Hideo

    2008-01-01

    We study endogenous signaling by analyzing a team production problem with endogenous timing. Each agent of the team is privately endowed with some level of confidence about team productivity. Each of them must then commit a level of effort in one of two periods. At the end of each period, each agent observes his partner' s move in this period. Both agents are rewarded by a team output determined by team productivity and total invested effort. Each agent must personally incur the cost of effor...

  9. Towards confidence in transport safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robison, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) plans to demonstrate to the public that high-level waste can be transported safely to the proposed repository. The author argues US DOE should begin now to demonstrate its commitment to safety by developing an extraordinary safety program for nuclear cargo it is now shipping. The program for current shipments should be developed with State, Tribal, and local officials. Social scientists should be involved in evaluating the effect of the safety program on public confidence. The safety program developed in cooperation with western states for shipments to the Waste Isolation Pilot plant is a good basis for designing that extraordinary safety program

  10. Integrating Engineering into Delaware's K-5 Classrooms: A Study of Pedagogical and Curricular Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grusenmeyer, Linda Huey

    notable differences. Almost all elementary teacher respondents were familiar with engineering and able to define it using one or more key characteristics. They valued the inclusion of engineering in the elementary curriculum; however trained and untrained teachers reported they were not confident about teaching it and were unaware of the new standards related to engineering. Teachers saw potential advantages or benefits of the new curriculum as helping improve science and math understanding, an opportunity to increase vocational awareness, and engaging students and motivating them to learn. Most teachers saw similar barriers to implementation- lack of teacher knowledge, lack of time to learn about engineering and how to teach engineering, and lack of administrative support. Almost all were open to additional in-service training to learn more about this new curriculum. Three fifth grade science units were examined for evidence of teacher pedagogical support in teaching two Science and Engineering Practices (SEP) advocated by the Next Generation Science Standards. An analytic framework was developed based upon two NGSS SEPs: Asking questions, defining problems and Engaging in argument from evidence. Findings revealed that the kits varied greatly in their pedagogical approaches to the two SEPs and differences might be explained by each kit's underlying orientations to the teaching-learning process. Findings from these investigations have implications for the design of professional development and for engineering curricula. They highlight the importance of considering teacher beliefs about curriculum implementation and subject matter, as well as the importance of creating curriculum materials that focus teacher attention toward student thinking and the language rich science and engineering practices. Recommendations also include ongoing professional development to allow teachers time to try out and revise pedagogical routines that support the SEPs studied here.

  11. K5/K14-positive cells contribute to salivary gland-like breast tumors with myoepithelial differentiation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boecker, Werner; Stenman, Goeran; Loening, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    different cell lineages and define their cellular hierarchy in tumors with myoepithelial differentiation. isTILT analysis of a series of 28 breast, salivary, and lacrimal gland tumors, including pleomorphic adenomas (n=8), epithelial-myoepithelial tumors (n=9), and adenoid cystic carcinomas (n=11) revealed...... heterologeous cell differentiations such as squamous and mesenchymal progenies. p63 was co-expressed with K5/K14 in basal-like progenitor cells, myoepithelial, and squamous cells but not in glandular cells. Our results show that the corresponding counterpart tumors of breast and salivary/lacrimal glands have....... For that reason, we performed an in situ triple immunofluorescence lineage/differentiation tracing (isTILT) and qRT-PCR study of basal (K5/K14), glandular (K7/K8/18), and epidermal-specific squamous (K10) keratins, p63, and smooth muscle actin (SMA; myoepithelial marker) with the aim to construct and trace...

  12. Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.

    2000-01-01

    The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)

  13. The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison

    2013-01-01

    Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.

  14. Transport mean free path in K5Bi1-xNdx(MoO4)4 laser crystal powders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illarramendi, M A; Aramburu, I; Fernandez, J; Balda, R; Al-Saleh, M

    2007-01-01

    In this work, we calculate in two different ways the transport mean free paths in K 5 Bi 1-x Nd x (MoO 4 ) 4 (x = 0.05, 0.2, 1) laser crystal powders by using the diffuse spectral reflectance and transmittance of the powders and the absorption coefficient of the crystal materials. The theoretical calculations have been made by assuming a diffusive propagation of light in these materials. Similar results have been obtained from both methods

  15. Public confidence and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.P.

    1990-01-01

    Today in France there are 54 nuclear power units in operation at 18 sites. They supply 75% of all electricity produced, 12% of which is exported to neighbouring countries, and play an important role in the French economy. For the French, nuclear power is a fact of life, and most accept it. However, the accident of Chernobyl has made public opinion more sensitive, and the public relations work has had to be reconsidered carefully with a view to increase the confidence of the French public in nuclear power, anticipating media crises and being equipped to deal with such crises. The three main approaches are the following: keeping the public better informed, providing clear information at time of crisis and international activities

  16. Knowledge, Self Confidence and Courage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selberg, Hanne; Steenberg Holtzmann, Jette; Hovedskov, Jette

    . Results The students identified their major learning outcomes as transfer of operational skills, experiencing self-efficacy and enhanced understanding of the patients' perspective.Involving simulated patients in the training of technical skills contributed to the development of the students' communication......Knowledge, self confidence and courage – long lasting learning outcomes through simulation in a clinical context. Hanne Selberg1, Jette Hovedskov2, Jette Steenberg Holtzmann2 The significance and methodology of the researchThe study focuses on simulation alongside the clinical practice and linked...... Development, Clinical Lecturer, Metropolitan University College, Faculty of Nursing, Email: hase@phoe.dk, phone: +45-72282830. 2. Jette Hovedskov, RN, Development Consultant, Glostrup University Hospital, Department of Development Email : jeho@glo.regionh.dk ,phone: +45- 43232090 3. Jette Holtzmann Steenberg...

  17. Confidence building in safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grundfelt, Bertil

    1999-01-01

    Future generations should be adequately protected from damage caused by the present disposal of radioactive waste. This presentation discusses the core of safety and performance assessment: The demonstration and building of confidence that the disposal system meets the safety requirements stipulated by society. The major difficulty is to deal with risks in the very long time perspective of the thousands of years during which the waste is hazardous. Concern about these problems has stimulated the development of the safety assessment discipline. The presentation concentrates on two of the elements of safety assessment: (1) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and (2) validation and review. Uncertainty is associated both with respect to what is the proper conceptual model and with respect to parameter values for a given model. A special kind of uncertainty derives from the variation of a property in space. Geostatistics is one approach to handling spatial variability. The simplest way of doing a sensitivity analysis is to offset the model parameters one by one and observe how the model output changes. The validity of the models and data used to make predictions is central to the credibility of safety assessments for radioactive waste repositories. There are several definitions of model validation. The presentation discusses it as a process and highlights some aspects of validation methodologies

  18. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  19. Uncertainty and confidence from the triple-network perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    White, Thomas P.; Engen, Nina Helkjær; Sørensen, Susan

    2014-01-01

    of environmental conditions; (ii) those regions whose activity is robustly affected by our subjective confidence; and (iii) those regions differentially activated at these contrasting times. In further meta-analyses the consistency of activation between these judgement types was assessed. Increased activation...

  20. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  1. Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achilles, C. M.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)

  2. Report of the key-comparison of spectral diffuse reflectance (EURAMET.PR-K5) (Ref. 619)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andor, György; Gál, Péter

    2018-01-01

    This report details the final results of the EURAMET comparison on regular spectral transmittance carried out between 2006 and 2016. The aim of this comparison was to check the agreement of measurement of the spectral diffuse reflectance among participants, using the measurement geometry of d/0 or 0/d in the wavelength range of 360 nm to 780 nm at 20 nm increment. We used a star type comparison: first the participants sent their samples to the pilot, than the pilot measured all the samples of the participants and sent them back. The participants measured the samples and sent them to the pilot for control measurement. Six standards were used as reference standards in order to maintain the scale during the comparison. These were three samples of BCR-406 opal glasses (BCR 30506; BCR 30303; BCR 30704), an MC20 Russian opal glass (MC 4777) and two samples made of pressed halon (polytetrafluoroethylene) powder (halon 2007A; halon 2007C). These six samples were designated as the Comparison reference standards. The diffuse reflectance was initially measured on the OMH (BFKH) absolute reflectometer. The link to the CCPR-K5 results was BFKH, and the check on BFKH was the PTB results who also participated in the CCPR-K5 comparison. The participants were GUM, INM, LNE, METAS, BFKH, PTB, SP. Main text To reach the main text of this paper, click on Final Report. Note that this text is that which appears in Appendix B of the BIPM key comparison database kcdb.bipm.org/. The final report has been peer-reviewed and approved for publication by the CCPR, according to the provisions of the CIPM Mutual Recognition Arrangement (CIPM MRA).

  3. An analysis of the relationship between K--5 elementary school teachers' perceptions of principal instructional leadership and their science teaching efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Ian

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between K-5 elementary school teachers' perceptions of principal instructional leadership and their science teaching efficacy. The influence of background variables on both leadership and efficacy is also analyzed. A sequential mixed methods approach was used in this study. The survey sample was comprised of teachers in the elementary divisions of schools from the nine international school regional associations. Teacher participation was obtained through an email containing an online survey link. Following the analysis of survey responses (N=356), in-depth interviews (N=17) were conducted. Reliability for the instructional leadership scale was found to be .94 (coefficient alpha) and .69 for the personal science teaching efficacy (PSTE) scale. The results show a significant correlation between elementary school teachers' perceptions of principal instructional leadership and their PSTE levels, with the most significant correlation that between the study of a science-related major or minor at college and higher PSTE scores. Strong correlations were also found between PSTE levels and having principals who discussed goals at faculty meetings, participated in science curricular review, supported recognition of student progress, encouraged new skills and concepts, discussed student progress with faculty, and used assessments to see science progress towards easily understood goals. PSTE levels were also higher in schools where principals had grade or school level science coordinators in place and where they supported the use of science kits.

  4. Collecting the Missing Piece of the Puzzle: The Wind Temperatures of Arcturus (K2 III) and Aldeberan (K5 III)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Graham

    2017-08-01

    Unravelling the poorly understood processes that drive mass loss from red giant stars requires that we empirically constrain the intimately coupled momentum and energy balance. Hubble high spectral resolution observations of wind scattered line profiles, from neutral and singly ionized species, have provided measures of wind acceleration, turbulence, terminal speeds, and mass-loss rates. These wind properties inform us about the force-momentum balance, however, the spectra have not yielded measures of the much needed wind temperatures, which constrain the energy balance.We proposed to remedy this omission with STIS E140H observations of the Si III 1206 Ang. resonance emission line for two of the best studied red giants: Arcturus (alpha Boo: K2 III) and Aldebaran (alpha Tau: K5 III), both of which have detailed semi-empirical wind velocity models. The relative optical depths of wind scattered absorption in Si III 1206 Ang., O I 1303 Ang. triplet., C II 1335 Ang., and existing Mg II h & k and Fe II profiles give the wind temperatures through the thermally controlled ionization balance. The new temperature constraints will be used to test existing semi-empirical models by comparision with multi-frequency JVLA radio fluxes, and also to constrain the flux-tube geometry and wave energy spectrum of magnetic wave-driven winds.

  5. Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

  6. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  7. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

  8. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  9. Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...

  10. Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2018-01-01

    We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

  11. Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten

    2009-01-01

    A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.

  12. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  13. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

  14. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

  15. On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Tegenfeldt, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...

  16. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

    2010-01-01

    Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

  18. Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, Hiroyuki

    2004-01-01

    Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)

  19. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  20. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  1. Confidence bands for inverse regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

    2010-01-01

    We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

  2. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movem...

  3. Inhibition of B16-BL6 melanoma lung colonies by semisynthetic sulfaminoheparosan sulfates from E. coli K5 polysaccharide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poggi, Andreina; Rossi, Cosmo; Casella, Nicola; Bruno, Cristiana; Sturiale, Luisella; Dossi, Carla; Naggi, Annamaria

    2002-08-01

    Heparin (H), heparan sulfate (HS), and related glycosaminoglycans can inhibit cancer cell invasion, possibly due to their ability to interact with vascular growth factors, adhesion molecules, endoglycosidases, and signaling proteins, in addition to the well-known effects on the clotting system. We evaluated the antitumor activity of a series of semisynthetic sulfaminoheparosan sulfates (SAHSs) with different degree and distribution of sulfates, obtained by chemical modifications of the E. coli K5 polysaccharide, namely type A, B, and C compounds. B16-BL6 melanoma cells (10 5 cells/mouse) were injected intravenously (i.v.) in a lateral tail vein of C57BL6 mice at a dose of 0.5 mg/ mouse together with test compounds. Tumor lung nodules were significantly reduced as compared with controls only by H (95.5 +/- 1.0% inhibition), SAHS-2 (84.2 +/- 5.0% inhibition), and SAHS-4 (91.1 +/- 4.2% inhibition), among compounds tested. SAHS-2 and SAHS-4 are type B compounds, with a sulfate/carboxylate ratio similar to that of H. A typical mammalian HS showed only 54.8% inhibition. Supersulfated low-molecular-weight heparin and heparan sulfate (ssLMWH and ssLMWHS) showed an activity similar to that of unfractionated compounds. H and SAHS-4 inhibited dose dependently B16-BL6 lung colonies, with IC-50 values of 0.05 and 0.1 mg/mouse, respectively. The relationship with ex vivo anticoagulant potency was evaluated by activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) on mouse plasma at different time intervals after i.v. injection (0.1 to 0.5 mg/mouse) of the compound. H showed a dose-dependent anticoagulant activity lasting up to 2 hours, whereas SAHS-4 showed a potent anticoagulant effect only at a dose of 0.5 mg/mouse. Accordingly, H but not SAHS-4 consistently inhibited B16-BL6 lung colonies when given 1 hour before tumor cells. SAHS-4 derivatives, with different size and/or affinity depleted of AT binding sites, showed an inhibitory effect on B16-BL6 melanoma similar to that of SAHS-4

  4. How do regulators measure public confidence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)

  5. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  6. [Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

    2006-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

  7. Characterization of Camptothecin-induced Genomic Changes in the Camptothecin-resistant T-ALL-derived Cell Line CPT-K5

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Eigil; Nielsen, Christine J F; Roy, Amit

    2018-01-01

    -K5 and its parental cell line. We identified copy number alterations affecting genes important for maintaining genome integrity and reducing CPT-induced DNA damage. We show for the first time that short tandem repeats are targets for TOP1 cleavage, that can be differentially stimulated by CPT.......Acquisition of resistance to topoisomerase I (TOP1)-targeting camptothecin (CPT) derivatives is a major clinical problem. Little is known about the underlying chromosomal and genomic mechanisms. We characterized the CPT-K5 cell line expressing mutant CPT-resistant TOP1 and its parental T......-cell derived acute lymphoblastic leukemia CPT-sensitive RPMI-8402 cell line by karyotyping and molecular genetic methods, including subtractive oligo-based array comparative genomic hybridization (soaCGH) analysis. Karyotyping revealed that CPT-K5 cells had acquired additional structural aberrations...

  8. Vitamins K2, K3 and K5 exert antitumor effects on established colorectal cancer in mice by inducing apoptotic death of tumor cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Mutsumi; Nakai, Seiji; Deguchi, Akihiro; Nonomura, Takako; Masaki, Tsutomu; Uchida, Naohito; Yoshiji, Hitoshi; Kuriyama, Shigeki

    2007-08-01

    Although a number of studies have shown that vitamin K possesses antitumor activities on various neoplastic cell lines, there are few reports demonstrating in vivo antitumor effects of vitamin K, and the antitumor effect on colorectal cancer (CRC) remains to be examined. Therefore, antitumor effects of vitamin K on CRC were examined both in vitro and in vivo. Vitamins K2, K3 and K5 suppressed the proliferation of colon 26 cells in a dose-dependent manner, while vitamin K1 did not. On flow cytometry, induction of apoptosis by vitamins K2, K3 and K5 was suggested by population in sub-G1 phase of the cell cycle. Hoechst 33342 staining and a two-color flow cytometric assay using fluorescein isothiocyanate-conjugated annexin V and propidium iodide confirmed that vitamins K2, K3 and K5 induced apoptotic death of colon 26 cells. Enzymatic activity of caspase-3 in colon 26 cells was significantly up-regulated by vitamins K2, K3 and K5. The pan-caspase inhibitor, benzyloxycarbonyl-Val-Ala-Asp-fluoromethyl ketone, substantially prevented vitamin K-mediated apoptosis. In vivo study using syngeneic mice with subcutaneously established colon 26 tumors demonstrated that intravenous administration of vitamins K2, K3 and K5 significantly suppressed the tumor growth. The number of apoptotic tumor cells was significantly larger in the vitamin K-treated groups than in the control group. These results suggest that vitamins K2, K3 and K5 exerted effective antitumor effects on CRC in vitro and in vivo by inducing caspase-dependent apoptotic death of tumor cells, suggesting that these K vitamins may be promising agents for the treatment of patients with CRC.

  9. Evidence of a massive planet candidate orbiting the young active K5V star BD+20 1790

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernán-Obispo, M.; Gálvez-Ortiz, M. C.; Anglada-Escudé, G.; Kane, S. R.; Barnes, J. R.; de Castro, E.; Cornide, M.

    2010-03-01

    Context. BD+20 1790 is a young active, metal-rich, late-type K5Ve star. We have undertaken a study of stellar activity and kinematics for this star over the past few years. Previous results show a high level of stellar activity, with the presence of prominence-like structures, spots on the surface, and strong flare events, despite the moderate rotational velocity of the star. In addition, radial velocity variations with a semi-amplitude of up to 1 km s-1 were detected. Aims: We investigate the nature of these radial velocity variations, in order to determine whether they are due to stellar activity or the reflex motion of the star induced by a companion. Methods: We have analysed high-resolution echelle spectra by measuring stellar activity indicators and computing radial velocity (RV) and bisector velocity spans. Two-band photometry was also obtained to produce the light curve and determine the photometric period. Results: Based upon the analysis of the bisector velocity span, as well as spectroscopic indices of chromospheric indicators, Ca ii H & K, Hα, and taking the photometric analysis into account, we report that the best explanation for the RV variation is the presence of a substellar companion. The Keplerian fit of the RV data yields a solution for a close-in massive planet with an orbital period of 7.78 days. The presence of the close-in massive planet could also be an interpretation for the high level of stellar activity detected. Since the RV data are not part of a planet search programme, we can consider our results as a serendipitous evidence of a planetary companion. To date, this is the youngest main sequence star for which a planetary candidate has been reported. Based on observations collected at the German-Spanish Astronomical Center, Calar Alto, jointly operated by the Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie Heidelberg and the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC). Based on observations made with the Italian Telescopio Nazionale Galileo

  10. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  11. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  12. High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.

  13. A systematic review of maternal confidence for physiologic birth: characteristics of prenatal care and confidence measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V

    2014-01-01

    Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by

  14. Confidence building - is science the only approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bragg, K.

    1990-01-01

    The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has begun to develop some simplified methods to determine if it is possible to provide confidence that dose, risk and environmental criteria can be respected without undue reliance on detailed scientific models. The progress to date will be outlined and the merits of this new approach will be compared to the more complex, traditional approach. Stress will be given to generating confidence in both technical and non-technical communities as well as the need to enhance communication between them. 3 refs., 1 tab

  15. Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire

    that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show...

  16. Modeling Math Growth Trajectory--An Application of Conventional Growth Curve Model and Growth Mixture Model to ECLS K-5 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    To model students' math growth trajectory, three conventional growth curve models and three growth mixture models are applied to the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten-Fifth grade (ECLS K-5) dataset in this study. The results of conventional growth curve model show gender differences on math IRT scores. When holding socio-economic…

  17. A general model of confidence building: analysis and implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilgour, D.M.

    1998-01-01

    For more than two decades, security approaches in Europe have included confidence building. Many have argued that Confidence-Building Measures (CBMS) played an essential role in the enormous transformations that took place there. Thus, it is hardly,surprising that CBMs have been proposed as measures to reduce tensions and transform security relationships elsewhere in the world. The move toward wider application of CBMs has strengthened recently, as conventional military, diplomatic, and humanitarian approaches seem to have failed to address problems associated with peace-building and peace support operations. There is, however, a serious problem. We don't really know why, or even how, CBMs work. Consequently, we have no reliable way to design CBMs that would be appropriate in substance, form, and timing for regions culturally, geographically, and militarily different from Europe. Lacking a solid understanding of confidence building, we are handicapped in our efforts to extend its successes to the domain of peace building and peace support. To paraphrase Macintosh, if we don't know how CBMs succeeded in the past, then we are unlikely to be good at maintaining, improving, or extending them. The specific aim of this project is to step into this gap, using the methods of game theory to clarify some aspects of the underlying logic of confidence building. Formal decision models will be shown to contribute new and valuable insights that will assist in the design of CBMs to contribute to new problems and in new arenas. (author)

  18. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  19. Principles of psychological confidence of NPP operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpeev, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    The problems of operator interaction with subsystems supporting his activity are discussed from the point of view of formation of his psychological confidence on the basis of the automation intellectual means capabilities. The functions of operator activity supporting subsystems, which realization will provide to decrease greatly the portion of accidents at NPPs connected with mistakes in operator actions, are derived. 6 refs

  20. Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media. In 2014, he explored two-way student exchanges between Canadian and ... his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.”.

  1. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  2. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  3. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  4. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  5. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  6. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  7. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  8. Challenge for reconstruction of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuura, S.

    2001-01-01

    Past incidents and scandals that have had a large influence on damaging public confidence in nuclear energy safety are presented. Radiation leak on nuclear-powered ship 'Mutsu' (1974), the T.M.I. incident in 1979, Chernobyl accident (1986), the sodium leak at the Monju reactor (1995), fire and explosion at a low level waste asphalt solidification facility (1997), J.C.O. incident (Tokai- MURA, 1999), are so many examples that have created feelings of distrust and anxiety in society. In order to restore public confidence there is no other course but to be prepared for difficulty and work honestly to our fullest ability, with all steps made openly and accountably. (N.C.)

  9. Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-01

    0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500

  10. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Daas, Piet J.H.; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  11. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; Delen, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  12. Confidence, Visual Research, and the Aesthetic Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stan Ruecker

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this article is to identify and describe one of the primary purposes of aesthetic quality in the design of computer interfaces and visualization tools. We suggest that humanists can derive advantages in visual research by acknowledging by their efforts to advance aesthetic quality that a significant function of aesthetics in this context is to inspire the user’s confidence. This confidence typically serves to create a sense of trust in the provider of the interface or tool. In turn, this increased trust may result in an increased willingness to engage with the object, on the basis that it demonstrates an attention to detail that promises to reward increased engagement. In addition to confidence, the aesthetic may also contribute to a heightened degree of satisfaction with having spent time using or investigating the object. In the realm of interface design and visualization research, we propose that these aesthetic functions have implications not only for the quality of interactions, but also for the results of the standard measures of performance and preference.

  13. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  14. Transparency as an element of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder

  15. National Debate and Public Confidence in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindquist, Ted

    2014-01-01

    Ted Lindquist, coordinator of the Association of Swedish Municipalities with Nuclear Facilities (KSO), closed the first day of conferences. He showed what the nuclear landscape was in Sweden, and in particular that through time there has been a rather good support from the population. He explained that the reason could be the confidence of the public in the national debate. On a more local scale, Ted Lindquist showed how overwhelmingly strong the support was in towns where the industry would like to operate long-term storage facilities

  16. Social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in Quebec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Bellemare, Christian A; Bédard, Suzanne K; Lemieux, Renald

    2015-02-21

    Access to healthcare in remote areas is difficult and telehealth could be a promising avenue if accepted by the population. The aim of this study is to assess social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in the Province of Quebec. We conducted a survey using a questionnaire assessing the social acceptance of and confidence level in telehealth. Two strategies were used: 1) paper questionnaires were sent to two hospitals in Quebec; and 2) online questionnaires were randomly sent by a firm specialized in online survey to a representative sample of the population of the Province of Quebec. Respondents were all residents of the Province of Quebec and 18 years and older. Questions were scored with a four-level Likert scale. A total of 1816 questionnaires were analyzed (229 written and 1,587 online questionnaires). The socio-demographic variables in our samples, especially the online questionnaires, were fairly representative of Quebec's population. Overall, social acceptance scored at 77.71% and confidence level at 65.76%. Both scores were higher in the case of treatment (3 scenarios were proposed) vs. diagnosis (p < 0.05). No difference was found when respondents were asked to respond for themselves and for a member of their family, which demonstrates a true interest in telehealth in Quebec. In addition, we found a significant difference (p < 0.05) between written and online questionnaires regarding social acceptance (80.75% vs. 77.33%) and confidence level (74.84% vs. 64.55%). These differences may be due to social desirability or avidity bias in the written questionnaires. Our results suggest that the population in Quebec encourages the development of telehealth for real time diagnosis and long distance treatment for regions deprived of healthcare professionals.

  17. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  18. Confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.; Naberejnev, D.G.

    2004-01-01

    The present communication addresses the topic of symmetric confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution. This distribution is frequently utilized to characterize inherently positive, continuous random variables that are selected to represent many physical quantities in applied nuclear science and technology. The basic formalism is outlined herein and a conjured numerical example is provided for illustration. It is demonstrated that when the uncertainty reflected in a lognormal probability distribution is large, the use of a confidence interval provides much more useful information about the variable used to represent a particular physical quantity than can be had by adhering to the notion that the mean value and standard deviation of the distribution ought to be interpreted as best value and corresponding error, respectively. Furthermore, it is shown that if the uncertainty is very large a disturbing anomaly can arise when one insists on interpreting the mean value and standard deviation as the best value and corresponding error, respectively. Reliance on using the mode and median as alternative parameters to represent the best available knowledge of a variable with large uncertainties is also shown to entail limitations. Finally, a realistic physical example involving the decay of radioactivity over a time period that spans many half-lives is presented and analyzed to further illustrate the concepts discussed in this communication

  19. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  20. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  1. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-09-01

    -existing deformations in the core exceeded the elasticity limit of the intact rock. These problems are identified and considered in the modelling, and affect uncertainty, but have a limited negative impact on confidence. Overall there is limited measurement bias in the data and bias due to poor representativity is much reduced compared with earlier model versions. However, some degree of bias due to limited representativity remains in some areas. An important remaining bias relates to the fracture size data, since these have to be based on outcrops and not on data from the underground. However, the impact on uncertainty can be estimated and is accounted for in the modelling. Many of the alternative hypotheses formed in earlier iterations of the site descriptive modelling work have now been discarded or are handled by bounding assumptions. Nevertheless a few alternative hypotheses needed to be developed into alternative models, to be propagated to safety assessment or engineering. These alternative models concern: fracture size and intensity modelling in the geological DFN; geometry, connectivity and transmissivity of deformation zones in the regional domain; hydraulic properties and connectivity of the fracture network of a scale less than the deterministic deformation zone; alternative hypotheses as to groundwater composition and processes; processes for sulphate reduction; and effects of connectivity, complexity and channelling on distribution of flow. Another prerequisite for confidence is consistency, or at least no conflicts, between the different discipline model interpretations. Furthermore, confidence is enhanced if aspects of the model are supported by independent evidence from different disciplines. Essentially all identified interactions are considered in the site descriptive modelling work. Only data from underground investigations are judged to have the potential to further significantly reduce uncertainties within the potential repository volume: The range of size

  2. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  3. Technology in a crisis of confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damodaran, G R

    1979-04-01

    The power that technological progress has given to engineers is examined to see if there has been a corresponding growth in human happiness. A credit/debit approach is discussed, whereby technological advancement is measured against the criteria of social good. The credit side includes medicine, agriculture, and energy use, while the debit side lists pollution, unequal distribution of technology and welfare, modern weaponry, resource depletion, and a possible decline in the quality of life. The present anti-technologists claim the debit side is now predominant, but the author challenges this position by examining the role of technology and the engineer in the society. He sees a need for renewed self-confidence and a sense of direction among engineers, but is generally optimistic that technology and civilization will continue to be intertwined. (DCK)

  4. Considering public confidence in developing regulatory programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, S.J.

    2001-01-01

    In the area of public trust and in any investment, planning and strategy are important. While it is accepted in the United States that an essential part of our mission is to leverage our resources to improving Public Confidence this performance goal must be planned for, managed and measured. Similar to our premier performance goal of Maintaining Safety, a strategy must be developed and integrated with our external stake holders but with internal regulatory staff as well. In order to do that, business is to be conducted in an open environment, the basis for regulatory decisions has to be available through public documents and public meetings, communication must be done in clear and consistent terms. (N.C.)

  5. Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Ma, Li

    2018-01-01

    Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...

  6. Graduating general surgery resident operative confidence: perspective from a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Annabelle L; Reddy, Vikram; Longo, Walter E; Gusberg, Richard J

    2014-08-01

    General surgical training has changed significantly over the last decade with work hour restrictions, increasing subspecialization, the expanding use of minimally invasive techniques, and nonoperative management for solid organ trauma. Given these changes, this study was undertaken to assess the confidence of graduating general surgery residents in performing open surgical operations and to determine factors associated with increased confidence. A survey was developed and sent to general surgery residents nationally. We queried them regarding demographics and program characteristics, asked them to rate their confidence (rated 1-5 on a Likert scale) in performing open surgical procedures and compared those who indicated confidence with those who did not. We received 653 responses from the fifth year (postgraduate year 5) surgical residents: 69% male, 68% from university programs, and 51% from programs affiliated with a Veterans Affairs hospital; 22% from small programs, 34% from medium programs, and 44% from large programs. Anticipated postresidency operative confidence was 72%. More than 25% of residents reported a lack of confidence in performing eight of the 13 operations they were queried about. Training at a university program, a large program, dedicated research years, future fellowship plans, and training at a program that performed a large percentage of operations laparoscopically was associated with decreased confidence in performing a number of open surgical procedures. Increased surgical volume was associated with increased operative confidence. Confidence in performing open surgery also varied regionally. Graduating surgical residents indicated a significant lack of confidence in performing a variety of open surgical procedures. This decreased confidence was associated with age, operative volume as well as type, and location of training program. Analyzing and addressing this confidence deficit merits further study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All

  7. The theory of confidence-building measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darilek, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the theory of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) in two ways. First, it employs a top-down, deductively oriented approach to explain CBM theory in terms of the arms control goals and objectives to be achieved, the types of measures to be employed, and the problems or limitations likely to be encountered when applying CBMs to conventional or nuclear forces. The chapter as a whole asks how various types of CBMs might function during a political - military escalation from peacetime to a crisis and beyond (i.e. including conflict), as well as how they might operate in a de-escalatory environment. In pursuit of these overarching issues, the second section of the chapter raises a fundamental but complicating question: how might the next all-out war actually come aoubt - by unpremeditated escalation resulting from misunderstanding or miscalculation, or by premeditation resulting in a surprise attack? The second section of the paper addresses this question, explores its various implications for CBMs, and suggests the potential contribution of different types of CBMs toward successful resolution of the issues involved

  8. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to open-quotes false alarms.close quotes This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a open-quotes false alarm?close quotes Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  9. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  10. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that they put their trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  11. Examining Belief and Confidence in Schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Dan W.; Averbeck, Bruno B.; Frith, Chris D.; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.

    2018-01-01

    Background People with psychoses often report fixed, delusional beliefs that are sustained even in the presence of unequivocal contrary evidence. Such delusional beliefs are the result of integrating new and old evidence inappropriately in forming a cognitive model. We propose and test a cognitive model of belief formation using experimental data from an interactive “Rock Paper Scissors” game. Methods Participants (33 controls and 27 people with schizophrenia) played a competitive, time-pressured interactive two-player game (Rock, Paper, Scissors). Participant’s behavior was modeled by a generative computational model using leaky-integrator and temporal difference methods. This model describes how new and old evidence is integrated to form both a playing strategy to beat the opponent and provide a mechanism for reporting confidence in one’s playing strategy to win against the opponent Results People with schizophrenia fail to appropriately model their opponent’s play despite consistent (rather than random) patterns that can be exploited in the simulated opponent’s play. This is manifest as a failure to weigh existing evidence appropriately against new evidence. Further, participants with schizophrenia show a ‘jumping to conclusions’ bias, reporting successful discovery of a winning strategy with insufficient evidence. Conclusions The model presented suggests two tentative mechanisms in delusional belief formation – i) one for modeling patterns in other’s behavior, where people with schizophrenia fail to use old evidence appropriately and ii) a meta-cognitive mechanism for ‘confidence’ in such beliefs where people with schizophrenia overweight recent reward history in deciding on the value of beliefs about the opponent. PMID:23521846

  12. Non-proliferation and confidence-building measures in Asia and the Pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    In the face of improved international relations, regional and subregional issues have acquired additional urgency and importance in the field of disarmament and international security. The pursuit of regional solutions to regional problems is thus being actively encouraged by the international community. Towards this end, the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs is seeking to promote regional approaches to disarmament either through the united nations regional centres for peace and Disarmament or cooperation with individual Governments. Within this framework this conference was dealing with non-proliferation and confidence-building measures in Asia and the Pacific region

  13. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  14. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  15. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  16. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  17. nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Temechegn

    Altogether the test is made up of 40 items covering students' ability to recall definition ... confidence interval within which student have confidence in their choice of the .... is mentioned these equilibrium systems come to memory of the learner.

  18. Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function

    OpenAIRE

    Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek

    2006-01-01

    The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...

  19. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

  20. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  1. Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki

    2008-01-01

    Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested

  2. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  3. Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

    2004-04-01

    Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.

  4. Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehn, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.

  5. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-05-09

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

  6. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-01-01

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014

  7. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2018-02-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  8. Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina

    2015-01-01

    midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  10. Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney

    2012-06-01

    On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.

  11. Coping skills: role of trait sport confidence and trait anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cresswell, Scott; Hodge, Ken

    2004-04-01

    The current research assesses relationships among coping skills, trait sport confidence, and trait anxiety. Two samples (n=47 and n=77) of international competitors from surf life saving (M=23.7 yr.) and touch rugby (M=26.2 yr.) completed the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Sport Anxiety Scale. Analysis yielded significant correlations amongst trait anxiety, sport confidence, and coping. Specifically confidence scores were positively associated with coping with adversity scores and anxiety scores were negatively associated. These findings support the inclusion of the personality characteristics of confidence and anxiety within the coping model presented by Hardy, Jones, and Gould, Researchers should be aware that confidence and anxiety may influence the coping processes of athletes.

  12. Confidence- and security-building in South-East Asia. Working group II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alagappa, M.

    1991-01-01

    Discussion in the Working Group II focused on the following subjects: the establishment of a zone of peace, freedom and neutrality in South-East Asia; the establishment of a nuclear weapon-free zone in South-East Asia; the Cambodian conflict; regional co-operation; military security confidence-building measures

  13. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  14. Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A

    2002-01-01

    To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.

  15. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.

  16. Government policy, research and stakeholder confidence - Current Trends in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, Carmel

    2006-01-01

    uncertainties; - Assure adequate human capacity to manage the program throughout its existence to maintain competence and credibility; - Enhance scientific understanding to improve confidence in predictions and to evaluate potential program improvements; - Confirm performance or identify anomalies during and after program operations and thereby increase confidence; - Clearly demonstrate to citizens an ongoing capability to manage the enterprise and to respond to their concerns and desires; - Be able to enact mid-course corrections in response to new information or societal decisions by adapting to new designs, new regional, national or international institutional changes, or new international standards; - Be able to adapt to new capabilities developed externally to the program that show promise of improving program success. Ms. Letourneau addressed the role of the public and private sector in conducting research on RWM in Canada. The Government of Canada has clearly indicated that the responsibility for providing sound scientific data for proposed practices rests with the proponent who is taking action associated with the risk of potential serious harm. Where it is less clear that the proponent should shoulder the entire responsibility for research programs, the Government step in and assist the proponent or the general industry in question. The relationship between research and Government policy focuses on the public good and always aspires to public confidence. It cannot focus only on ideas and technologies with commercial potential. Its top priority must retain the public interest of present and future generations of Canadians. The Government is interested in supporting research which responds to public priorities of the day. The presentation reviewed the functional objectives of government research, and noted that increasingly, the setting of research priorities now involves more intensive and extensive public consultations. It was noted that allocation of responsibility

  17. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  18. Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this

  19. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  20. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  1. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  2. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  3. A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,

  4. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  5. Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

  6. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  7. Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri

    2013-01-01

    How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of

  8. To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...

  9. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  10. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Buratti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

  11. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano

    2014-01-01

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  12. On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2018-02-01

    Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  14. What are effective techniques for improving public confidence or restoring lost confidence in a regulator?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harbitz, O.; Isaksson, R.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. The following list contains thoughts related to restoring lost confidence: - hard, long lasting event; - strategy: maximum transparency; - to listen, be open, give phone numbers etc. - ways to rebuild trust: frequent communication, being there, open and transparent; - don't be too defensive; if things could be done better, say it; - technical staff and public affair staff together from the beginning - answer all questions; - classifications, actions, instructions that differ much from the earlier ones must be well explained and motivated - and still cause a lot of problems; - things may turn out to be political; - communicative work in an early stage saves work later; - communication experts must be working shoulder to shoulder with other staff; On handling emergencies in general, some recipes proposed are: - better to over react than to under react; - do not avoid extreme actions: hit hard, hit fast; - base your decisions in strict principles; - first principle: public safety first; - when you are realizing plant A, you must have a plant B in your pocket: - be transparent - from the beginning; - crisis communication: early, frequent etc - people need to see political leaders, someone who is making decisions - technical experts are needed but are not enough. On how to involve stakeholders and the public in decision making, recommendations are: - new kind of thinking -. demanding for a organisation; - go to local level, meet local people, speak language people understand, you have to start from the very beginning - introducing yourself tell who you are and why you are there. (authors)

  15. Family Health Histories and Their Impact on Retirement Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zick, Cathleen D; Mayer, Robert N; Smith, Ken R

    2015-08-01

    Retirement confidence is a key social barometer. In this article, we examine how personal and parental health histories relate to working-age adults' feelings of optimism or pessimism about their overall retirement prospects. This study links survey data on retirement planning with information on respondents' own health histories and those of their parents. The multivariate models control for the respondents' socio-demographic and economic characteristics along with past retirement planning activities when estimating the relationships between family health histories and retirement confidence. Retirement confidence is inversely related to parental history of cancer and cardiovascular disease but not to personal health history. In contrast, retirement confidence is positively associated with both parents being deceased. As members of the public become increasingly aware of how genetics and other family factors affect intergenerational transmission of chronic diseases, it is likely that the link between family health histories and retirement confidence will intensify. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

  17. Confidence- and security-building in North-East Asia. Working group I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotton, J.

    1991-01-01

    In the discussions in Working Group I there were two general preoccupations which prevailed throughout the consideration of questions relating to North-East Asian confidence and security building: how much could North-East Asia learn from the European experience in Confidence Building measures, and could any of the underlying factors- economic, political and social which has moved Europe towards military and security accommodation be seen to work also in the Asia-Pacific region. The problem of North Korea is underlined in view of non acceptance of the IAEA safeguards regime although it had entered into multilateral set of obligations with other signatories by assenting the Non-proliferation Treaty

  18. Investigating the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertekin Pinar, Sukran; Yildirim, Gulay; Sayin, Neslihan

    2018-05-01

    The high level of psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem solving skills of midwife candidates play an important role in increasing the quality of health care and in fulfilling their responsibilities towards patients. This study was conducted to investigate the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates. It is a convenience descriptive quantitative study. Students who study at Health Sciences Faculty in Turkey's Central Anatolia Region. Midwife candidates (N = 270). In collection of data, the Personal Information Form, Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults (PRSA), Self-Confidence Scale (SCS), and Problem Solving Inventory (PSI) were used. There was a negatively moderate-level significant relationship between the Problem Solving Inventory scores and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores (r = -0.619; p = 0.000), and between Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = -0.524; p = 0.000). There was a positively moderate-level significant relationship between the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores and the Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = 0.583; p = 0.000). There was a statistically significant difference (p Problem Solving Inventory and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores according to getting support in a difficult situation. As psychological resilience and self-confidence levels increase, problem-solving skills increase; additionally, as self-confidence increases, psychological resilience increases too. Psychological resilience, self-confidence, and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates in their first-year of studies are higher than those who are in their fourth year. Self-confidence and psychological resilience of midwife candidates aged between 17 and 21, self-confidence and problem solving skills of residents of city centers, psychological resilience of those who perceive their monthly income as sufficient are high

  19. Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerland, Carrie E

    2018-06-06

    Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  20. The CO2 Abundance in Comets C2012 K1 (PanSTARRS), C2012 K5 (LINEAR), and 290P Jager as Measured with Spitzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Adam J.; Kelley, Michael S.P.; Cochran, Anita L.; Bodewits, Dennis; DiSanti, Michael A.; Dello Russo, Neil; Lisse, Carey M.

    2015-01-01

    Carbon dioxide is one of the most abundant ices present in comets and is therefore important for understanding cometary composition and activity. We present analysis of observations of CO2 and [O I] emission in three comets to measure the CO2 abundance and evaluate the possibility of employing observations of [O I] emission in comets as a proxy for CO2. We obtained NIR imaging sensitive to CO2 of comets C/2012 K1 (PanSTARRS), C/2012 K5 (LINEAR), and 290P/Jager with the IRAC instrument on Spitzer. We acquired observations of [O I] emission in these comets with the ARCES echelle spectrometer mounted on the 3.5-m telescope at Apache Point Observatory and observations of OH with the Swift observatory (PanSTARRS) and with Keck HIRES (Jager). The CO2/H2O ratios derived from the Spitzer images are 12.6 +/- 1.3% (PanSTARRS), 28.9 +/- 3.6% (LINEAR), and 31.3 +/- 4.2% (Jager). These abundances are derived under the assumption that contamination from CO emission is negligible. The CO2 abundance for PanSTARRS is close to the average abundance measured in comets at similar heliocentric distance to date, while the abundances measured for LINEAR and Jager are significantly larger than the average abundance. From the coma morphology observed in PanSTARRS and the assumed gas expansion velocity, we derive a rotation period for the nucleus of about 9.2 h. Comparison of H2O production rates derived from ARCES and Swift data, as well as other observations, suggest the possibility of sublimation from icy grains in the inner coma. We evaluate the possibility that the [O I] emission can be employed as a proxy for CO2 by comparing CO2/H2O ratios inferred from the [O I] lines to those measured directly by Spitzer. We find that for PanSTARRS we can reproduce the observed CO2 abundance to an accuracy of approximately 20%. For LINEAR and Jager, we were only able to obtain upper limits on the CO2 abundance inferred from the [O I] lines. These upper limits are consistent with the CO2 abundances

  1. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  2. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2017-11-01

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  3. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

  4. How to build confidence in climate science and politics? Return on an international conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aykut, Stefan C.

    2015-01-01

    Taking as a starting point the communications at an international conference held in Paris in 2014, the article analyzes the construction of confidence in climate sciences and politics. How, by which methods and procedures, do climate modeling communities establish the validity of their models? What link can be established between the confidence in numerical simulations of global warming and in the capacity of the international system to successfully tackle the climate issue? The article shows that the existence of a close link between these different forms of confidence questions common belief that expertise should be completely separated from the political process. More generally, it examines the necessity of a 'constitution' for the science-policy relationship at the global level at a time where new paradigms for research and for policy converge toward increasing importance of regional and local levels

  5. Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof Schwenkel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public

  6. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broten, G S; Wood, H C [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network`s ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor`s response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  8. Suicide-Related Knowledge and Confidence Among Behavioral Health Care Staff in Seven States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Caroline; Smith, April R; Dodd, Dorian R; Covington, David W; Joiner, Thomas E

    2016-11-01

    Death by suicide is a serious and growing public health concern in the United States. This noncontrolled, naturalistic study examined professionals' knowledge about suicide and confidence in working with suicidal individuals, comparing those who had received either of two gatekeeper trainings-Question, Persuade, and Refer (QPR) or Applied Suicide Intervention Skills Training (ASIST)-or other suicide-relevant training or no training. Participants (N=16,693) were individuals in various professional roles in the field of behavioral health care in Indiana, Kentucky, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah. Participants completed a survey assessing suicide knowledge and skills confidence. Most participants (52.9%) reported no previous suicide prevention or assessment training. Individuals with suicide-relevant training demonstrated greater suicide knowledge and confidence than those with no such training. Among those who had received any training, no differences were found in suicide knowledge; however, individuals who had received ASIST reported greater confidence in working with suicidal individuals, compared with those who had received other training. Professional role and prior experience with a client who had died by suicide had significant positive relationships with suicide knowledge and confidence. Regional differences emerged between states and are examined within the context of statewide suicide prevention initiatives. Increasing access to and incentives for participating in suicide-relevant training among behavioral health care staff may foster a more knowledgeable and confident group of gatekeepers. Future research should examine whether increases in knowledge and confidence among staff translate into actual changes in practice that help protect and serve at-risk individuals.

  9. Methods for confidence interval estimation of a ratio parameter with application to location quotients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beyene Joseph

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The location quotient (LQ ratio, a measure designed to quantify and benchmark the degree of relative concentration of an activity in the analysis of area localization, has received considerable attention in the geographic and economics literature. This index can also naturally be applied in the context of population health to quantify and compare health outcomes across spatial domains. However, one commonly observed limitation of LQ is its widespread use as only a point estimate without an accompanying confidence interval. Methods In this paper we present statistical methods that can be used to construct confidence intervals for location quotients. The delta and Fieller's methods are generic approaches for a ratio parameter and the generalized linear modelling framework is a useful re-parameterization particularly helpful for generating profile-likelihood based confidence intervals for the location quotient. A simulation experiment is carried out to assess the performance of each of the analytic approaches and a health utilization data set is used for illustration. Results Both the simulation results as well as the findings from the empirical data show that the different analytical methods produce very similar confidence limits for location quotients. When incidence of outcome is not rare and sample sizes are large, the confidence limits are almost indistinguishable. The confidence limits from the generalized linear model approach might be preferable in small sample situations. Conclusion LQ is a useful measure which allows quantification and comparison of health and other outcomes across defined geographical regions. It is a very simple index to compute and has a straightforward interpretation. Reporting this estimate with appropriate confidence limits using methods presented in this paper will make the measure particularly attractive for policy and decision makers.

  10. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  11. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Document Server

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)

  12. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  13. Building Supervisory Confidence--A Key to Transfer of Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byham, William C.; Robinson, James

    1977-01-01

    A training concept is described which suggests that efforts toward maintaining and/or building the confidence of the participants in supervisory training programs can increase their likelihood of using the skills on the job. (TA)

  14. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  15. Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrels, N.

    1986-01-01

    The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

  16. Non-Asymptotic Confidence Sets for Circular Means

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hotz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The mean of data on the unit circle is defined as the minimizer of the average squared Euclidean distance to the data. Based on Hoeffding’s mass concentration inequalities, non-asymptotic confidence sets for circular means are constructed which are universal in the sense that they require no distributional assumptions. These are then compared with asymptotic confidence sets in simulations and for a real data set.

  17. Differentially Private Confidence Intervals for Empirical Risk Minimization

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Yue; Kifer, Daniel; Lee, Jaewoo

    2018-01-01

    The process of data mining with differential privacy produces results that are affected by two types of noise: sampling noise due to data collection and privacy noise that is designed to prevent the reconstruction of sensitive information. In this paper, we consider the problem of designing confidence intervals for the parameters of a variety of differentially private machine learning models. The algorithms can provide confidence intervals that satisfy differential privacy (as well as the mor...

  18. Learning style and confidence: an empirical investigation of Japanese employees

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshitaka Yamazaki

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to examine how learning styles relate to employees' confidence through a view of Kolb's experiential learning theory. For this aim, an empirical investigation was conducted using the sample of 201 Japanese employees who work for a Japanese multinational corporation. Results illustrated that the learning style group of acting orientation described a significantly higher level of job confidence than that of reflecting orientation, whereas the two groups of feeling and thinking o...

  19. The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SUTHERLAND, HERBERT J.; VEERS, PAUL S.

    1999-01-01

    Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S(sub 1)). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results

  20. Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

  1. Vitamins K2, K3 and K5 exert in vivo antitumor effects on hepatocellular carcinoma by regulating the expression of G1 phase-related cell cycle molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuriyama, Shigeki; Hitomi, Misuzu; Yoshiji, Hitoshi; Nonomura, Takako; Tsujimoto, Tatsuhiro; Mitoro, Akira; Akahane, Takami; Ogawa, Mutsumi; Nakai, Seiji; Deguchi, Akihiro; Masaki, Tsutomu; Uchida, Naohito

    2005-08-01

    A number of studies have shown that various vitamins K, specifically vitamin K2, possessed antitumor activity on various types of rodent- and human-derived neoplastic cell lines. However, there are only a small number of reports demonstrating in vivo antitumor effects of vitamins K. Furthermore, the mechanism of antitumor effects of vitamins K still remains to be examined. In the present study, we examined the antitumor effects of vitamins K2, K3 and K5 on PLC/PRF/5 human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cells in vivo. Furthermore, to examine the mechanism of antitumor actions of these vitamins K, mRNA expression levels of various G1 phase-related cell cycle molecules were evaluated by using a real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) method. HCC-bearing animals were produced by implanting PLC/PRF/5 cells subcutaneously into athymic nude mice, and drinking water containing vitamin K2, K3 or K5 was given to the animals. Treatments with vitamins K2, K3 and K5 were shown to markedly inhibit the growth of HCC tumors. To examine the mechanism of in vivo antitumor effects of vitamins K, total RNA was extracted from HCC tumors, and the expression of G1 phase-related cell cycle molecules was quantitatively examined. Real-time RT-PCR demonstrated that the expression of the cell cycle-driving molecule, cyclin-dependent kinase 4 (Cdk4), in HCC was significantly reduced by the treatments with vitamin K2, K3 and K5. Conversely, the expression of the cell cycle-suppressing molecules, Cdk inhibitor p16INK4a and retinoblastoma, in HCC was significantly enhanced by the treatments with vitamins K2, K3 and K5. These results indicate that vitamins K2, K3 and K5 exert antitumor effects on HCC by regulating the expression of G1 phase-related cell cycle molecules. These results also indicate that vitamins K2, K3 and K5 may be useful agents for the treatment of patients with HCC.

  2. Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus

    2014-02-01

    The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.

  3. Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

    2011-05-01

      Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

  4. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  5. Testing and qualification of confidence in statistical procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serghiuta, D.; Tholammakkil, J.; Hammouda, N. [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (Canada); O' Hagan, A. [Sheffield Univ. (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-01

    This paper discusses a framework for designing artificial test problems, evaluation criteria, and two of the benchmark tests developed under a research project initiated by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to investigate the approaches for qualification of tolerance limit methods and algorithms proposed for application in optimization of CANDU regional/neutron overpower protection trip setpoints for aged conditions. A significant component of this investigation has been the development of a series of benchmark problems of gradually increased complexity, from simple 'theoretical' problems up to complex problems closer to the real application. The first benchmark problem discussed in this paper is a simplified scalar problem which does not involve extremal, maximum or minimum, operations, typically encountered in the real applications. The second benchmark is a high dimensional, but still simple, problem for statistical inference of maximum channel power during normal operation. Bayesian algorithms have been developed for each benchmark problem to provide an independent way of constructing tolerance limits from the same data and allow assessing how well different methods make use of those data and, depending on the type of application, evaluating what the level of 'conservatism' is. The Bayesian method is not, however, used as a reference method, or 'gold' standard, but simply as an independent review method. The approach and the tests developed can be used as a starting point for developing a generic suite (generic in the sense of potentially applying whatever the proposed statistical method) of empirical studies, with clear criteria for passing those tests. Some lessons learned, in particular concerning the need to assure the completeness of the description of the application and the role of completeness of input information, are also discussed. It is concluded that a formal process which includes extended and detailed benchmark

  6. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  7. Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaylson Jair da Silveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

  8. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  9. Kangaroo Care Education Effects on Nurses' Knowledge and Skills Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almutairi, Wedad Matar; Ludington-Hoe, Susan M

    2016-11-01

    Less than 20% of the 996 NICUs in the United States routinely practice kangaroo care, due in part to the inadequate knowledge and skills confidence of nurses. Continuing education improves knowledge and skills acquisition, but the effects of a kangaroo care certification course on nurses' knowledge and skills confidence are unknown. A pretest-posttest quasi-experiment was conducted. The Kangaroo Care Knowledge and Skills Confidence Tool was administered to 68 RNs at a 2.5-day course about kangaroo care evidence and skills. Measures of central tendency, dispersion, and paired t tests were conducted on 57 questionnaires. The nurses' characteristics were varied. The mean posttest Knowledge score (M = 88.54, SD = 6.13) was significantly higher than the pretest score (M = 78.7, SD = 8.30), t [54] = -9.1, p = .000), as was the posttest Skills Confidence score (pretest M = 32.06, SD = 3.49; posttest M = 26.80, SD = 5.22), t [53] = -8.459, p = .000). The nurses' knowledge and skills confidence of kangaroo care improved following continuing education, suggesting a need for continuing education in this area. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2016;47(11):518-524. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  10. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  11. Nurse leader certification preparation: how are confidence levels impacted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junger, Stacey; Trinkle, Nicole; Hall, Norma

    2016-09-01

    The aim was to examine the effect of a nurse leader certification preparation course on the confidence levels of the participants. Limited literature is available regarding nurse leader development and certifications. Barriers exist related to lack of confidence, high cost, time and lack of access to a preparation course. Nurse leaders (n = 51) completed a pre- and post-survey addressing confidence levels of participants related to the topics addressed in the nurse leader certification preparation course. There were statistically significant increases in confidence levels related to all course content for the participants. At the time of the study, there were 31.4% of participants intending to sit for the certification examination, and 5 of the 51 participants successfully sat for and passed the examination. A nurse leader certification preparation course increases confidence levels of the participants and removes barriers, thereby increasing the number of certifications obtained. The health-care climate is increasingly complex and nurse leaders need the expertise to navigate the ever-changing health-care environment. Certification in a specialty, such as leadership, serves as an indicator of a high level of competence in the field. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.

    2011-01-01

    We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.

  13. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

  14. Nurses' training and confidence on deep venous catheterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liachopoulou, A P; Synodinou-Kamilou, E E; Deligiannidi, P G; Giannakopoulou, M; Birbas, K N

    2008-01-01

    The rough estimation of the education and the self-confidence of nurses, both students and professionals, regarding deep venous catheterization in adult patients, the evaluation of the change in self-confidence of one team of students who were trained with a simulator on deep venous catheterization and the correlation of their self-confidence with their performance recorded by the simulator. Seventy-six nurses and one hundred twenty-four undergraduate students participated in the study. Fourty-four University students took part in a two-day educational seminar and were trained on subclavian and femoral vein paracentesis with a simulator and an anatomical model. Three questionnaires were filled in by the participants: one from nurses, one from students of Technological institutions, while the University students filled in the previous questionnaire before their attendance of the seminar, and another questionnaire after having attended it. Impressive results in improving the participants' self-confidence were recorded. However, the weak correlation of their self-confidence with the score automatically provided by the simulator after each user's training obligates us to be particularly cautious about the ability of the users to repeat the action successfully in a clinical environment. Educational courses and simulators are useful educational tools that are likely to shorten but in no case can efface the early phase of the learning curve in clinical setting, substituting the clinical training of inexperienced users.

  15. Exploring Self - Confidence Level of High School Students Doing Sport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurullah Emir Ekinci

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate self-confidence levels of high school students, who do sport, in the extent of their gender, sport branch (individual/team sports and aim for participating in sport (professional/amateur. 185 active high school students from Kutahya voluntarily participated for the study. In the study as data gathering tool self-confidence scale was used. In the evaluation of the data as a hypothesis test Mann Whitney U non parametric test was used. As a result self-confidence levels of participants showed significant differences according to their gender and sport branch but there was no significant difference according to aim for participating in sport.

  16. Building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corden, P.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a few thoughts on the question of building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia, in particular in the area centred on the Korean peninsula. This question includes the process of establishing and implementing confidence- and security-building measures, some of which might involve States other than North and South Korea. The development of CSBMs has now been well established in Europe, and there are encouraging signs that such measures are taking hold in other areas of the world, including in Korea. Consequently there is a fairly rich mine of information, precedent and experience from which to draw in focusing on the particular subject at hand. In these remarks the concept of confidence- and security-building is briefly addressed and measures are examined that have proven useful in other circumstances and review some possibilities that appear of interest in the present context

  17. Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-10-01

    Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Nearest unlike neighbor (NUN): an aid to decision confidence estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasarathy, Belur V.

    1995-09-01

    The concept of nearest unlike neighbor (NUN), proposed and explored previously in the design of nearest neighbor (NN) based decision systems, is further exploited in this study to develop a measure of confidence in the decisions made by NN-based decision systems. This measure of confidence, on the basis of comparison with a user-defined threshold, may be used to determine the acceptability of the decision provided by the NN-based decision system. The concepts, associated methodology, and some illustrative numerical examples using the now classical Iris data to bring out the ease of implementation and effectiveness of the proposed innovations are presented.

  19. Building, measuring and improving public confidence in the nuclear regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    An important factor for public confidence in the nuclear regulator is the general public trust of the government and its representatives, which is clearly not the same in all countries. Likewise, cultural differences between countries can be considerable, and similar means of communication between government authorities and the public may not be universally effective. Nevertheless, this workshop identified a number of common principles for the communication of nuclear regulatory decisions that can be recommended to all regulators. They have been cited in particular for their ability to help build, measure and/or improve overall public confidence in the nuclear regulator. (author)

  20. Lower Confidence Bounds for the Probabilities of Correct Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhey S. Singh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We extend the results of Gupta and Liang (1998, derived for location parameters, to obtain lower confidence bounds for the probability of correctly selecting the t best populations (PCSt simultaneously for all t=1,…,k−1 for the general scale parameter models, where k is the number of populations involved in the selection problem. The application of the results to the exponential and normal probability models is discussed. The implementation of the simultaneous lower confidence bounds for PCSt is illustrated through real-life datasets.

  1. Effect of False Confidence on Asset Allocation Decisions of Households

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swarn Chatterjee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether false confidence, as characterized by a high level of personal mastery and a low level of intelligence (IQ, results in frequent investor trading and subsequent investor wealth erosion across time. Using the National Longitudinal Survey (NLSY79, change in wealth and asset allocation across time is modeled as a function of various behavioral, socio-economic and demographic variables drawn from prior literature.  Findings of this research reveal that false confidence is indeed a predictor of trading activity in individual investment assets, and it also has a negative impact on individual wealth creation across time.

  2. Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinkel, Stefan; Marwan, N.; Dimigen, O.; Kurths, J.

    2009-01-01

    In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.

  3. Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-28

    Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

  4. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-11-01

    MCNP's criticality methodology and some basic statistics are reviewed. Confidence intervals are discussed, as well as how to build them and their importance in the presentation of a Monte Carlo result. The combination of MCNP's three k eff estimators is shown, theoretically and empirically, by statistical studies and examples, to be the best k eff estimator. The method of combining estimators is based on a solid theoretical foundation, namely, the Gauss-Markov Theorem in regard to the least squares method. The confidence intervals of the combined estimator are also shown to have correct coverage rates for the examples considered

  5. Older widows and married women: their intimates and confidants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babchuk, N; Anderson, T B

    1989-01-01

    Interview data obtained from 132 women sixty-five and older reveals that the widows and married women have a comparable number of primary friends. Being over age seventy-four influences the size of the friendship network for widows but not married women. The primary friendships of widows and married women parallel each other in terms of endurance and stability. Primary ties with men are the exception rather than the norm, for both widows and married women. Widows do differ from married women in that the former rely on confidant friends to a greater extent. Ties between older women and their confidants are characterized by norms of reciprocity.

  6. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  7. Regionalism, Regionalization and Regional Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liviu C. Andrei

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Sustained development is a concept associating other concepts, in its turn, in the EU practice, e.g. regionalism, regionalizing and afferent policies, here including structural policies. This below text, dedicated to integration concepts, will limit on the other hand to regionalizing, otherwise an aspect typical to Europe and to the EU. On the other hand, two aspects come up to strengthen this field of ideas, i.e. the region (al-regionalism-(regional development triplet has either its own history or precise individual outline of terms.

  8. Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

    2011-01-01

    Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

  9. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Document Server

    Vanden Broeck, Renilde

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC) in 2007. (1/2 page)

  10. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2007." (1/2 page)

  11. Expanding Horizons--Into the Future with Confidence!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    Gifted students often show a deep interest in and profound concern for the complex issues of society. Given the leadership potential of these students and their likely responsibility for solving future social problems, they need to develop this awareness and also a sense of confidence in dealing with future issues. The Future Problem Solving…

  12. "Depressive Realism" assessed via Confidence in Decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, J A

    1996-08-01

    There are two currently influential views regarding the link between cognitive distortions and depression. The first states that depressed individuals perceive the world and themselves with a strong negative bias or distortion, and that mentally healthy individuals perceive the word with relative accuracy. The second ''depressive realism'' camp argues that healthy individuals are positively biased and the depressed are relatively unbiased and hence, more realistic. In the present investigation, subjects suffering from major depression, subjects recovered from major depression, and a group of healthy controls were examined with regard to their confidence in answering each of 99 general knowledge questions. Confidence ratings were analysed separately according to correct or incorrect responses. There were no significant differences in performance (i.e. accuracy of answer between the three groups). When answering correctly, depressed subjects were significantly less confident than healthy control subjects. On answering incorrectly, none of the three groups were significantly different in their confidence ratings. These findings support the cognitive distortion view of depression and provide no evidence of ''depressive realism''.

  13. Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

  14. Confidence building on euro convergence : Evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992–1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  15. Confidence building on Euro convergence: evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  16. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general

  17. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  18. SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela-Cristina VOICU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

  19. The Dark and Bloody Mystery: Building Basic Writers' Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sledd, Robert

    While the roots of students' fear of writing go deep, students fear most the surface of writing. They fear that a person's language indicates the state not only of the mind but of the soul--thus their writing can make them look stupid and morally depraved. This fear of error and lack of confidence prevent students from developing a command of the…

  20. Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence of the village extension workers in Nsukka zone of Enugu State Agricultural Development ... Data for the study were collected through structured questionnaire administered on 44 VEWS selected, using ... their role-expectations as being important. Many of ...

  1. Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonett, Douglas G.

    2006-01-01

    Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

  2. Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal's gamma coefficient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman-Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the

  3. Maintaining public confidence in UK nuclear safety regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, L.

    2001-01-01

    The key to maintaining stake holder confidence is competence and having the resources necessary to not only carry out regulatory functions effectively, but also to keep the public informed and respond to their questions. This does not come cheap but it is a price well worth paying. (N.C.)

  4. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  5. Confidence Judgments in Children's and Adults' Event Recall and Suggestibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roebers, Claudia M.

    2002-01-01

    Three studies investigated the role of 8- and 10-year-olds' and adults' metacognitive monitoring and control processes for unbiased event recall tasks and suggestibility. Findings suggested strong tendencies to overestimate confidence regardless of age and question format. Children did not lack principal metacognitive competencies when questions…

  6. Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne

    2004-01-01

    A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distri...

  7. Performance of classification confidence measures in dynamic classifier systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Štefka, D.; Holeňa, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 4 (2013), s. 299-319 ISSN 1210-0552 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-17187S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : classifier combining * dynamic classifier systems * classification confidence Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.412, year: 2013

  8. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A.; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2017-01-01

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often…

  9. Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

    2017-02-01

    With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

  10. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  12. Faculty Expressions of (No) Confidence in Institutional Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantz, Alan C.; Lawson, Jonathan N.

    2017-01-01

    Although institutions of higher education rarely crumble and fall in the wake of votes of no confidence in their leadership--in presidents, senior administrators, or even governing boards--those expressions of discontent do have meaning. They suggest something awry at the institution, and even the potential to precipitate change. They also present…

  13. Frontline nurse managers' confidence and self-efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyk, Jennifer; Siedlecki, Sandra L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

    2016-05-01

    This study was focused on determining relationships between confidence levels and self-efficacy among nurse managers. Frontline nurse managers have a pivotal role in delivering high-quality patient care while managing the associated costs and resources. The competency and skill of nurse managers affect every aspect of patient care and staff well-being as nurse managers are largely responsible for creating work environments in which clinical nurses are able to provide high-quality, patient-centred, holistic care. A descriptive, correlational survey design was used; 85 nurse managers participated. Years in a formal leadership role and confidence scores were found to be significant predictors of self-efficacy scores. Experience as a nurse manager is an important component of confidence and self-efficacy. There is a need to develop educational programmes for nurse managers to enhance their self-confidence and self-efficacy, and to maintain experienced nurse managers in the role. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Academic Behavioural Confidence: A Comparison of Medical and Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Lalage; Sander, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Introduction. Sander, Stevenson, King and Coates (2000) identified differences between medical students in a conventional university and psychology students in a post-1992 university in their responses to different styles of learning and teaching. Method. It had been hypothesised that differing levels of confidence explained why the former felt…

  15. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  16. Concerns and developmental needs of highly confident and less ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of this study was based on three assumptions, namely 1) that coaching efficacy (confidence specific to the task of coaching) impacts the performance of coaches, 2) that coaching efficacy is influenced by the individual's procedural and declarative knowledge on coaching, and 3) that coaches do their work ...

  17. Parametric change point estimation, testing and confidence interval ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In many applications like finance, industry and medicine, it is important to consider that the model parameters may undergo changes at unknown moment in time. This paper deals with estimation, testing and confidence interval of a change point for a univariate variable which is assumed to be normally distributed. To detect ...

  18. Exploring the influence of Self-Confidence in Product Sketching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Passel, Pepijn; Eggink, Wouter; Bohemia, E.; Ion, B.; Kovacevic, A.

    2013-01-01

    The development of a student’s skills during design education partly depends on the amount of selfconfidence. Optimizing the speed and level of growth can be done by influencing factors related to self-confidence that students have to cope with throughout their studies. Six main factors can be

  19. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General Provisions...

  20. Can traceability improve consumers' confidence in food quality and safety?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijswijk, van W.; Cornelisse-Vermaat, J.R.; Frewer, L.J.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract This paper investigates whether the implementation of traceability systems in line with the European General Food Law as well as food labelling laws related to allergens can impact on consumer confidence in food quality and safety. It aims to give insight into consumer demands regarding

  1. The role of consumer confidence in creating customer loyalty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ou, Yi-Chun; de Vries, Lisette; Wiesel, Thorsten; Verhoef, Pieter

    How can firms retain customers during recessions? To answer this question, we investigate the moderating role of consumer confidence (CC) on the effects of three types of crucial customer loyalty strategies. These strategies are value equity (VE), brand equity (BE), and relationship equity (RE),

  2. Planning an Availability Demonstration Test with Consideration of Confidence Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Müller

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The full service life of a technical product or system is usually not completed after an initial failure. With appropriate measures, the system can be returned to a functional state. Availability is an important parameter for evaluating such repairable systems: Failure and repair behaviors are required to determine this availability. These data are usually given as mean value distributions with a certain confidence level. Consequently, the availability value also needs to be expressed with a confidence level. This paper first highlights the bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS for availability demonstration and inference with confidence intervals based on limited failure and repair data. The BMCS enables point-, steady-state and average availability to be determined with a confidence level based on the pure samples or mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of failure and repair behavior. Furthermore, the method enables individual sample sizes to be used. A sample calculation of a system with Weibull-distributed failure behavior and a sample of repair times is presented. Based on the BMCS, an extended, new procedure is introduced: the “inverse bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation” (IBMCS to be used for availability demonstration tests with consideration of confidence levels. The IBMCS provides a test plan comprising the required number of failures and repair actions that must be observed to demonstrate a certain availability value. The concept can be applied to each type of availability and can also be applied to the pure samples or distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. It does not require special types of distribution. In other words, for example, a Weibull, a lognormal or an exponential distribution can all be considered as distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. After presenting the IBMCS, a sample calculation will be carried out and the potential of the BMCS and the IBMCS

  3. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  4. Multicolor immunofluorescence reveals that p63- and/or K5-positive progenitor cells contribute to normal breast epithelium and usual ductal hyperplasia but not to low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia of the breast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boecker, Werner; Stenman, Göran; Schroeder, Tina; Schumacher, Udo; Loening, Thomas; Stahnke, Lisa; Löhnert, Catharina; Siering, Robert Michael; Kuper, Arthur; Samoilova, Vera; Tiemann, Markus; Korsching, Eberhard; Buchwalow, Igor

    2017-05-01

    We contend that knowledge about the cellular composition of normal breast epithelium is a prerequisite for understanding proliferative breast disease. Against this background, we used multicolor immunofluorescence to study normal breast epithelium and two types of intraepithelial proliferative breast lesion for expression of the p63, basal keratin K5, glandular keratin K8/18, SMA, ER-alpha, and Ki67. We studied eight normal breast epithelium samples, 12 cases of usual ductal hyperplasia, and 33 cases of low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (9 flat epithelial atypia, 14 low-grade ductal carcinoma in situ and 10 cases of lobular neoplasia). Usual ductal hyperplasia showed striking similarity to normal luminal breast epithelium including p63+ and/or K5+ luminal progenitor cells and the full spectrum of luminal progeny cells. In normal breast epithelium and usual ductal hyperplasia, expression of ER-alpha was associated with lack of expression of the proliferation antigen Ki67. In contrast, we found in both types of low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia robust expression of keratin K8/18 and a positive association between ER-alpha and Ki67 expression. However, these lesions were consistently negative for p63 and/or K5. Our observational study supports the view that usual ductal hyperplasia and low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia are different entities rather than part of a spectrum of the same disease. We propose a new operational model of cell differentiation that may serve to better understand correlations between normal breast epithelium and proliferative breast diseases. From our data we conclude that p63+ and/or K5+ progenitor cells contribute to maintenance of normal epithelium and usual ductal hyperplasia, but not to low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia of the breast.

  5. Knowledge and Confidence of a Convenience Sample of Australasian Emergency Doctors in Managing Dental Emergencies: Results of a Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Samaei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. We aimed to determine Australasian Specialist Emergency Physicians’ and Emergency Physicians in Training (Trainees’ level of knowledge of common dental emergencies. We also explored confidence in managing dental emergencies; predictors of confidence and knowledge; and preferences for further dental education. Methods. A questionnaire was distributed electronically (September 2011 and directly (November 2011 to Fellows and Trainees of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine. It explored demographics, confidence, knowledge of dental emergencies, and educational preferences. Results. Response rate was 13.6% (464/3405 and college members were proportionally represented by region. Fewer than half (186/446; 42% had received dental training. Sixty-two percent (244/391, 95% CI 57.5–67.1 passed (>50% a knowledge test. More than 60% incorrectly answered questions on dental fracture, periodontal abscess, tooth eruption dates, and ulcerative gingivitis. Forty percent (166/416 incorrectly answered a question about Ludwig’s Angina. Eighty-three percent (360/433 were confident in the pharmacological management of toothache but only 26% (112/434 confident in recognizing periodontal disease. Knowledge was correlated with confidence (r=0.488. Interactive workshops were preferred by most (386/415, 93%. Conclusions. The knowledge and confidence of Australasian Emergency Physicians and Trainees in managing dental emergencies are varied, yet correlated. Interactive training sessions in dental emergencies are warranted.

  6. Zvýšení ročního využití parního práškového kotle K5 ve ŽĎAS, a. s

    OpenAIRE

    Kubiš, David

    2017-01-01

    Tato diplomová práce se zabývá vyšším využitím kotle K5 v teplárně ŽĎAS, a.s. v přechodném období, kdy vlivem snížených odběrů dochází k přehřívání zpáteční větve horkovodu a je nutnost přejíždět na jiný kotel. Cílem práce je omezit přejíždění z kotle K5 na kotel K3 a zvýšit jeho časové využití v přechodném období pomocí ekonomicky únosného technického řešení. Na začátku práce je popsána teplárna ŽĎAS, a.s. a její vybavení. Následují čtyři metody výpočtů zvýšení ročního využití kotle K5. A to...

  7. A confidence in itself, as mortgage of successful competition activity of the young chess-players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khoroshavina A.V.

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Presents the results of the study the basic aspects of self-confidence of young players. The study involved 54 young chess players. Of these, 34 students Kherson CYSS Chess. 20 players from different regions of Ukraine. Age investigated from 10 to 15 years. The dependence of the confidence of participation in competitions for young players on the level of anxiety, motivational set, strong-willed self-control. In the result of performance of young chess players in the competition is directly proportional to the strength of motivation to succeed installation. Most athletes have been observed high levels of self-willed. Self-control depends on the experience of participation of young players in the competition, as well as facilities manager.

  8. Confidence Hills Mineralogy and Chemin Results from Base of Mt. Sharp, Pahrump Hills, Gale Crater, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanagh, P. D.; Bish, D. L.; Blake, D. F.; Vaniman, D. T.; Morris, R. V.; Ming, D. W.; Rampe, E. B.; Achilles, C. N.; Chipera, S. J.; Treiman, A. H.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity recently completed its fourth drill sampling of sediments on Mars. The Confidence Hills (CH) sample was drilled from a rock located in the Pahrump Hills region at the base of Mt. Sharp in Gale Crater. The CheMin X-ray diffractometer completed five nights of analysis on the sample, more than previously executed for a drill sample, and the data have been analyzed using Rietveld refinement and full-pattern fitting to determine quantitative mineralogy. Confidence Hills mineralogy has several important characteristics: 1) abundant hematite and lesser magnetite; 2) a 10 angstrom phyllosilicate; 3) multiple feldspars including plagioclase and alkali feldspar; 4) mafic silicates including forsterite, orthopyroxene, and two types of clinopyroxene (Ca-rich and Ca-poor), consistent with a basaltic source; and 5) minor contributions from sulfur-bearing species including jarosite.

  9. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Power and confidence in professions: lessons for occupational therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Florence A

    2010-12-01

    Powerful professions have the capacity to obtain leadership positions, advocate successfully in the policy arena, and secure the resources necessary to achieve their professional goals. Within the occupational therapy profession, cultivating power and confidence among our practitioners is essential to realize our full capacity for meeting society's occupational needs. Drawing from a historical analysis of the medical and nursing professions, this paper discusses the implications of power and disempowerment among health professions for their practitioners, clients, and public image. Theoretical perspectives on power from social psychology, politics, organizational management, and post-structuralism are introduced and their relevance to the profession of occupational therapy is examined. The paper concludes with recommendations for occupational therapy practitioners to analyze their individual sources of power and evaluate opportunities to develop confidence and secure power for their professional work--in venues both in and outside the workplace.

  11. Radioactive waste and civil society: Toward confidence and efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferte, Jacques de la

    2001-01-01

    Radioactive waste management is a typical area where a confident and efficient relationship between decision makers and civil society is required to achieve progress. The Radioactive waste management community must now learn the lessons and borrow from the good and bad experiences of government and industry in the area of good governance. Key ingredients include not only good science and technology, but also an early association of stakeholders with the waste management development process, so as to care for social values and generate confidence in the public, notably at the local level. The new NEA Forum will now organise its future work around this concept, collecting and sharing the experience among its members, and working together in an on-going multi-year programme

  12. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  13. Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

  14. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt "fails"-does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should "failed" replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing "failed" replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings.

  15. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  16. Confidence Level Computation for Combining Searches with Small Statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Junk, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    This article describes an efficient procedure for computing approximate confidence levels for searches for new particles where the expected signal and background levels are small enough to require the use of Poisson statistics. The results of many independent searches for the same particle may be combined easily, regardless of the discriminating variables which may be measured for the candidate events. The effects of systematic uncertainty in the signal and background models are incorporated ...

  17. INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASING BALANCE & CONFIDENCE IN OLDER ADULTS: A REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Foram Dhebar

    2014-01-01

    Elderly is defined as being 65 years of age or older. Geriatrics or geriatric medicine is a specialty that focuses on health care of elderly people. The number of persons above the age of 60 years is fast growing, especially in India. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury, fractures & the leading cause of emergency department visits by older adults. Low balance confidence is a major health problem among older adults restricting their participation in daily life. Objective of t...

  18. Confidence and Use of Communication Skills in Medical Students

    OpenAIRE

    Mahnaz Jalalvandi; Akhtar Jamali; Ali Taghipoor-Zahir; Mohammad-Reza Sohrabi

    2014-01-01

    Background: Well-designed interventions can improve the communication skills of physicians. Since the understanding of the current situation is essential for designing effective interventions, this study was performed to determine medical interns’ confidence and use of communication skills.Materials and Methods: This descriptive-analytical study was performed in spring 2013 within 3 branches of Islamic Azad University (Tehran, Mashhad, and Yazd), on 327 randomly selected interns. Data gatheri...

  19. Fisher.py: Fisher Matrix Manipulation and Confidence Contour Plotting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Dan

    2010-10-01

    Fisher.py allows you to combine constraints from multiple experiments (e.g., weak lensing + supernovae) and add priors (e.g., a flat universe) simply and easily. Calculate parameter uncertainties and plot confidence ellipses. Fisher matrix expectations for several experiments are included as calculated by myself (time delays) and the Dark Energy Task Force (WL/SN/BAO/CL/CMB), or provide your own.

  20. Effects of Parental Divorce on Marital Commitment and Confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Whitton, Sarah W.; Rhoades, Galena K.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.

    2008-01-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that, compared to offspring of non-divorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes towards marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that, when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their ...

  1. Autism Spectrum Disorder and High Confidence Gene Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Mai, MOCHIZUKI

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurological developmental disorder whose mechanism isyet unclear. However, recent ASD studies, which employ exome- and genome-wide sequencing,have identified some high-confidence ASD genes. Those ASD studies have revealed that CHD8is likely associated with ASD. In this article, we highlight that CHD8 may regulate othercandidate ASD risk genes. Current research indicates that there exist some thousand autismsusceptibility candidate genes. Moreover, we sugge...

  2. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  3. Building public confidence in the world's nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, C.D.

    1996-01-01

    Public confidence in the nuclear industry requires two things, which are trust and understanding. Trust is an emotional response based upon an instinctive reaction. Understanding, on the other hand, is an intellectual response based upon facts. To gain public confidence, both of these levels must be communicated and proactive strategies must be implemented to do this. To achieve this objective will require confidence and courage in communication programs. Each company operating in the nuclear sector must be proactive in building its individual reputation and must not retreat from controversy. Similarly, each industry body must continue the Herculean task of building understanding. The nuclear industry has powerful arguments. ICI, BP or Ford did not achieve their licences to operate by keeping their heads down, they achieved their current market positions by building a positive corporate reputation within their respective industrial contexts over many decades. In order to achieve a similar position for the nuclear industry and the companies, their examples must be followed. If it is continued to 'keep the heads down' in the trenches, public opinion will surely bury within it. (G.K.)

  4. Re-thinking accountability: trust versus confidence in medical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checkland, K; Marshall, M; Harrison, S

    2004-04-01

    In seeking to prevent a reoccurrence of scandals such as that involving cardiac surgery in Bristol, the UK government has adopted a model of regulation that uses rules and surveillance as a way of both improving the quality of care delivered and increasing confidence in healthcare institutions. However, this approach may actually act to reduce confidence and trust while also reducing the moral motivation of practitioners. Accountability in health care is discussed, and it is suggested that openness about the difficult dilemmas that arise when practitioners have a duty to be accountable to more than one audience may be an alternative means of restoring trust. A greater emphasis on the sharing of information between individual health professionals and their patients would increase trust and would allow patients to hold their doctors to account for the quality of care they receive. Concentrating more on developing trust by the sharing of information and less on the futile search for complete confidence in systems and rules may improve the quality of care delivered while also nurturing the moral motivation of professionals upon which the delivery of high quality health care depends.

  5. Teachers and Counselors: Building Math Confidence in Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph M. Furner

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Mathematics teachers need to take on the role of counselors in addressing the math anxious in today's math classrooms. This paper looks at the impact math anxiety has on the future of young adults in our high-tech society. Teachers and professional school counselors are encouraged to work together to prevent and reduce math anxiety. It is important that all students feel confident in their ability to do mathematics in an age that relies so heavily on problem solving, technology, science, and mathematics. It really is a school's obligation to see that their students value and feel confident in their ability to do math, because ultimately a child's life: all decisions they will make and careers choices may be determined based on their disposition toward mathematics. This paper raises some interesting questions and provides some strategies (See Appendix A for teachers and counselors for addressing the issue of math anxiety while discussing the importance of developing mathematically confident young people for a high-tech world of STEM.

  6. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  7. Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Téllez A.

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

  8. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  9. Confidence limits for parameters of Poisson and binomial distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, L.M.

    1976-04-01

    The confidence limits for the frequency in a Poisson process and for the proportion of successes in a binomial process were calculated and tabulated for the situations in which the observed values of the frequency or proportion and an a priori distribution of these parameters are available. Methods are used that produce limits with exactly the stated confidence levels. The confidence interval [a,b] is calculated so that Pr [a less than or equal to lambda less than or equal to b c,μ], where c is the observed value of the parameter, and μ is the a priori hypothesis of the distribution of this parameter. A Bayesian type analysis is used. The intervals calculated are narrower and appreciably different from results, known to be conservative, that are often used in problems of this type. Pearson and Hartley recognized the characteristics of their methods and contemplated that exact methods could someday be used. The calculation of the exact intervals requires involved numerical analyses readily implemented only on digital computers not available to Pearson and Hartley. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to verify a selected interval from those calculated. This numerical experiment confirmed the results of the analytical methods and the prediction of Pearson and Hartley that their published tables give conservative results

  10. Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, David

    2013-10-12

    A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.

  11. Disarmament and confidence-building in North-East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Il Nam

    1992-01-01

    Disarmament and confidence building are essential issues to be addressed urgently as they are directly linked with national security. The successful solutions of this issue will ensure world peace and security. These statements have special significance if applied to the situation in North-East Asia and particularly Korean Peninsula. Even under the circumstances of the continued existence of the United States Nuclear Threat, the Government of North Korea has concluded a safeguards agreement and has been inspected by IAEA, thus indicating constant effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula

  12. On a linear method in bootstrap confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Pallini

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available A linear method for the construction of asymptotic bootstrap confidence intervals is proposed. We approximate asymptotically pivotal and non-pivotal quantities, which are smooth functions of means of n independent and identically distributed random variables, by using a sum of n independent smooth functions of the same analytical form. Errors are of order Op(n-3/2 and Op(n-2, respectively. The linear method allows a straightforward approximation of bootstrap cumulants, by considering the set of n independent smooth functions as an original random sample to be resampled with replacement.

  13. Station blackout and public confidence: a cautionary tale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cave, L.

    1990-01-01

    The recent ''station blackout'' (ie loss of on-site and off-site AC power) incidents at the Vogtle PWR in the US and Hinkley Point B AGR in the Uk have led to further public concern about the safety of nuclear power, even though in each case the actual increase in the chance of an accident leading to a release of radioactivity to the environment was negligible. The industry may be wise to invest precautionary measures to reduce the frequency of such incidents and to increase public confidence. (author)

  14. Establishing Quantitative Within-Subject Confidence Limits For Clinical Stereoroentgenographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Edward L.; Baumrind, Sheldon; Chafetz, Neil; Curry, Sean; Moffitt, Francis

    1983-07-01

    It is now quite clear that under ideal conditions, discrete points can be located on x-ray films with standard deviations of less than 50 i. However, under routine clinical conditions, such considerations as individual variation in anatomy, movement of the subject between exposures, and variations in image quality combine to produce considerable reductions in the confidence which can be placed in quantitative assessments made from stereoroentgenographic films. This paper discusses some considerations involved in designing mathematical models in such a way as to optimize the use of imperfect data in answering specific clinical questions.

  15. The public information challenge: confidence and credibility through communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spence, H.J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Canada's Atomic Energy Control Board, considered the oldest independent nuclear regulatory body in the world, has made significant progress toward openness and visibility through public information policy initiatives and communications activities, particularly in the last five years. A number of public information projects are described, and successes as well as disappointments are outlined. The importance in terms of enhanced credibility and public confidence in the regulatory agency is stressed. In looking toward the future, the linking of communications to the operational functions and activities of the regulator is presented as a key requirement. (author)

  16. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  17. Feedback for reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces using confidence metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, Noeline W.; Sanchez, Justin C.; Prasad, Abhishek

    2017-06-01

    Objective. For brain-machine interfaces (BMI) to be used in activities of daily living by paralyzed individuals, the BMI should be as autonomous as possible. One of the challenges is how the feedback is extracted and utilized in the BMI. Our long-term goal is to create autonomous BMIs that can utilize an evaluative feedback from the brain to update the decoding algorithm and use it intelligently in order to adapt the decoder. In this study, we show how to extract the necessary evaluative feedback from a biologically realistic (synthetic) source, use both the quantity and the quality of the feedback, and how that feedback information can be incorporated into a reinforcement learning (RL) controller architecture to maximize its performance. Approach. Motivated by the perception-action-reward cycle (PARC) in the brain which links reward for cognitive decision making and goal-directed behavior, we used a reward-based RL architecture named Actor-Critic RL as the model. Instead of using an error signal towards building an autonomous BMI, we envision to use a reward signal from the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) which plays a key role in the linking of reward to motor behaviors. To deal with the complexity and non-stationarity of biological reward signals, we used a confidence metric which was used to indicate the degree of feedback accuracy. This confidence was added to the Actor’s weight update equation in the RL controller architecture. If the confidence was high (>0.2), the BMI decoder used this feedback to update its parameters. However, when the confidence was low, the BMI decoder ignored the feedback and did not update its parameters. The range between high confidence and low confidence was termed as the ‘ambiguous’ region. When the feedback was within this region, the BMI decoder updated its weight at a lower rate than when fully confident, which was decided by the confidence. We used two biologically realistic models to generate synthetic data for MI (Izhikevich

  18. Evaluating best educational practices, student satisfaction, and self-confidence in simulation: A descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapko, Karen A; Ferranto, Mary Lou Gemma; Blasiman, Rachael; Shelestak, Debra

    2018-01-01

    The National League for Nursing (NLN) has endorsed simulation as a necessary teaching approach to prepare students for the demanding role of professional nursing. Questions arise about the suitability of simulation experiences to educate students. Empirical support for the effect of simulation on patient outcomes is sparse. Most studies on simulation report only anecdotal results rather than data obtained using evaluative tools. The aim of this study was to examine student perception of best educational practices in simulation and to evaluate their satisfaction and self-confidence in simulation. This study was a descriptive study designed to explore students' perceptions of the simulation experience over a two-year period. Using the Jeffries framework, a Simulation Day was designed consisting of serial patient simulations using high and medium fidelity simulators and live patient actors. The setting for the study was a regional campus of a large Midwestern Research 2 university. The convenience sample consisted of 199 participants and included sophomore, junior, and senior nursing students enrolled in the baccalaureate nursing program. The Simulation Days consisted of serial patient simulations using high and medium fidelity simulators and live patient actors. Participants rotated through four scenarios that corresponded to their level in the nursing program. Data was collected in two consecutive years. Participants completed both the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Student Version) and the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale. Results provide strong support for using serial simulation as a learning tool. Students were satisfied with the experience, felt confident in their performance, and felt the simulations were based on sound educational practices and were important for learning. Serial simulations and having students experience simulations more than once in consecutive years is a valuable method of clinical instruction. When

  19. The Optimal Confidence Intervals for Agricultural Products’ Price Forecasts Based on Hierarchical Historical Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With the levels of confidence and system complexity, interval forecasts and entropy analysis can deliver more information than point forecasts. In this paper, we take receivers’ demands as our starting point, use the trade-off model between accuracy and informativeness as the criterion to construct the optimal confidence interval, derive the theoretical formula of the optimal confidence interval and propose a practical and efficient algorithm based on entropy theory and complexity theory. In order to improve the estimation precision of the error distribution, the point prediction errors are STRATIFIED according to prices and the complexity of the system; the corresponding prediction error samples are obtained by the prices stratification; and the error distributions are estimated by the kernel function method and the stability of the system. In a stable and orderly environment for price forecasting, we obtain point prediction error samples by the weighted local region and RBF (Radial basis function neural network methods, forecast the intervals of the soybean meal and non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organism soybean continuous futures closing prices and implement unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage tests for the simulation results. The empirical results are compared from various interval evaluation indicators, different levels of noise, several target confidence levels and different point prediction methods. The analysis shows that the optimal interval construction method is better than the equal probability method and the shortest interval method and has good anti-noise ability with the reduction of system entropy; the hierarchical estimation error method can obtain higher accuracy and better interval estimation than the non-hierarchical method in a stable system.

  20. Energy Performance Certificate of building and confidence interval in assessment: An Italian case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronchin, Lamberto; Fabbri, Kristian

    2012-01-01

    The Directive 2002/91/CE introduced the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC), an energy policy tool. The aim of the EPC is to inform building buyers about the energy performance and energy costs of buildings. The EPCs represent a specific energy policy tool to orient the building sector and real-estate markets toward higher energy efficiency buildings. The effectiveness of the EPC depends on two factors: •The accuracy of energy performance evaluation made by independent experts. •The capability of the energy classification and of the scale of energy performance to control the energy index fluctuations. In this paper, the results of a case study located in Italy are shown. In this example, 162 independent technicians on energy performance of building evaluation have studied the same building. The results reveal which part of confidence intervals is dependent on software misunderstanding and that the energy classification ranges are able to tolerate the fluctuation of energy indices. The example was chosen in accordance with the legislation of the Emilia-Romagna Region on Energy Efficiency of Buildings. Following these results, some thermo-economic evaluation related to building and energy labelling are illustrated, as the EPC, which is an energy policy tool for the real-estate market and building sector to find a way to build or retrofit an energy efficiency building. - Highlights: ► Evaluation of the accuracy of energy performance of buildings in relation with the knowledge of independent experts. ► Round robin test based on 162 case studies on the confidence intervals expressed by independent experts. ► Statistical considerations between the confidence intervals expressed by independent experts and energy simulation software. ► Relation between “proper class” in energy classification of buildings and confidence intervals of independent experts.

  1. Empowerment as Interactions that Generate Self-Confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poder, Poul

    2010-01-01

    to address this gap in understanding by theorizing how confidence and other positive emotions contribute to personal agency, which is an essential aspect of the empowerment process.                       It is generally understood that confidence – meaning faith in oneself as opposed to conceit or arrogance...... by particular social interactions that promote recognition and access to relevant resources for action. Drawing on emotion-focused sociological theory about agency and emotional energy, and Fredrickson’s ‘build and broaden’ theory of positive emotions, I argue that the focus on consciousness and intentionality...... as the defining features of human agency has led us to downplay the fact that agency is primarily an emotional phenomenon. As such, it is also dynamic and situational, since it is highly dependent on interactions that engender emotional energy and positive emotions that fuel and widen agency. As an example...

  2. Protein Correlation Profiles Identify Lipid Droplet Proteins with High Confidence*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahmer, Natalie; Hilger, Maximiliane; Kory, Nora; Wilfling, Florian; Stoehr, Gabriele; Mann, Matthias; Farese, Robert V.; Walther, Tobias C.

    2013-01-01

    Lipid droplets (LDs) are important organelles in energy metabolism and lipid storage. Their cores are composed of neutral lipids that form a hydrophobic phase and are surrounded by a phospholipid monolayer that harbors specific proteins. Most well-established LD proteins perform important functions, particularly in cellular lipid metabolism. Morphological studies show LDs in close proximity to and interacting with membrane-bound cellular organelles, including the endoplasmic reticulum, mitochondria, peroxisomes, and endosomes. Because of these close associations, it is difficult to purify LDs to homogeneity. Consequently, the confident identification of bona fide LD proteins via proteomics has been challenging. Here, we report a methodology for LD protein identification based on mass spectrometry and protein correlation profiles. Using LD purification and quantitative, high-resolution mass spectrometry, we identified LD proteins by correlating their purification profiles to those of known LD proteins. Application of the protein correlation profile strategy to LDs isolated from Drosophila S2 cells led to the identification of 111 LD proteins in a cellular LD fraction in which 1481 proteins were detected. LD localization was confirmed in a subset of identified proteins via microscopy of the expressed proteins, thereby validating the approach. Among the identified LD proteins were both well-characterized LD proteins and proteins not previously known to be localized to LDs. Our method provides a high-confidence LD proteome of Drosophila cells and a novel approach that can be applied to identify LD proteins of other cell types and tissues. PMID:23319140

  3. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  4. Nuclear energy communications in France: gaining public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.-P.

    1990-01-01

    Nuclear power plants today are an accepted part of the French landscape; a total of 54 units have been constructed on some 20 different sites. They have been relatively well accepted by the general public and, in particular, by those people living in the vicinity of plants. This favourable situation, however, did not come about automatically - it required a great deal of effort in terms of public information, starting during the 1970s. This effort must be maintained, especially since public confidence in nuclear energy was severely shaken by the Chernobyl accident. Our success in pursuing France's planned construction programme depends on our ability to build on this confidence. Indeed, since 1987, we have had to rethink our communications strategy. However, Electricite de France (EDF) is not alone in this; public authorities, the SCSIN (an Industry Department equivalent to the NRC), CEA (French atomic energy commission), in its capacity as a research organisation, together with plant constructor Framatome and nuclear fuel company Cogema, all have a role to play in this communications drive. The key to our communications campaign lies in listening to public opinion. Opinion polls and qualitative surveys allow us to judge public awareness and pinpoint expectations and concerns. This article summarises the main surveys we have carried out. (3 figures) (Author)

  5. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  6. Confidence Intervals for Asbestos Fiber Counts: Approximate Negative Binomial Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartley, David; Slaven, James; Harper, Martin

    2017-03-01

    The negative binomial distribution is adopted for analyzing asbestos fiber counts so as to account for both the sampling errors in capturing only a finite number of fibers and the inevitable human variation in identifying and counting sampled fibers. A simple approximation to this distribution is developed for the derivation of quantiles and approximate confidence limits. The success of the approximation depends critically on the use of Stirling's expansion to sufficient order, on exact normalization of the approximating distribution, on reasonable perturbation of quantities from the normal distribution, and on accurately approximating sums by inverse-trapezoidal integration. Accuracy of the approximation developed is checked through simulation and also by comparison to traditional approximate confidence intervals in the specific case that the negative binomial distribution approaches the Poisson distribution. The resulting statistics are shown to relate directly to early research into the accuracy of asbestos sampling and analysis. Uncertainty in estimating mean asbestos fiber concentrations given only a single count is derived. Decision limits (limits of detection) and detection limits are considered for controlling false-positive and false-negative detection assertions and are compared to traditional limits computed assuming normal distributions. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.

  7. Robust, Efficient Depth Reconstruction With Hierarchical Confidence-Based Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li; Chen, Ke; Song, Mingli; Tao, Dacheng; Chen, Gang; Chen, Chun

    2017-07-01

    In recent years, taking photos and capturing videos with mobile devices have become increasingly popular. Emerging applications based on the depth reconstruction technique have been developed, such as Google lens blur. However, depth reconstruction is difficult due to occlusions, non-diffuse surfaces, repetitive patterns, and textureless surfaces, and it has become more difficult due to the unstable image quality and uncontrolled scene condition in the mobile setting. In this paper, we present a novel hierarchical framework with multi-view confidence-based matching for robust, efficient depth reconstruction in uncontrolled scenes. Particularly, the proposed framework combines local cost aggregation with global cost optimization in a complementary manner that increases efficiency and accuracy. A depth map is efficiently obtained in a coarse-to-fine manner by using an image pyramid. Moreover, confidence maps are computed to robustly fuse multi-view matching cues, and to constrain the stereo matching on a finer scale. The proposed framework has been evaluated with challenging indoor and outdoor scenes, and has achieved robust and efficient depth reconstruction.

  8. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  9. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionut Bebu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT, and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates.

  10. Curling for Confidence: Psychophysical Benefits of Curling for Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Rachael C; Rakhamilova, Zina; Gage, William H; Baker, Joseph

    2018-04-01

    While physical activity is increasingly promoted for older adults, there is a paucity of sport promotion, which has distinct benefits from exercise and remains stereotypically associated with younger age. Curling is a moderately intense and safe sport that continues to gain popularity; however, no research has investigated psychophysical benefits of curling for older adults. The present study compares high-experience (20+ years; n = 63) and low-experience (<20 years; n = 53) curlers (aged 60+ years) with older adult noncurlers (n = 44) on measures of daily functionality, balance confidence, and perceptions of the aging process. While no significant differences were found between high- and low-experience curlers, any level of experience reported significantly better functionality, physical confidence, and aging attitudes compared to noncurlers (p ≤ .05). Although further research is necessary, the results suggest that any level of curling experience can enhance older adult psychophysical well-being, and warrants consideration for physical activity promotion and falls prevention programs.

  11. Discovery Handbook for Grades K-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Terry

    This resource packet addresses the need for interpretive materials of the prehistory and early history of the state of Arkansas. These curriculum-focused activities, based on flyers and books created by the Arkansas Archaeology Survey, encourage integration of archaeological and historical study into classroom instruction. The teacher's guide is…

  12. eMolTox: prediction of molecular toxicity with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Changge; Svensson, Fredrik; Zoufir, Azedine; Bender, Andreas

    2018-03-07

    In this work we present eMolTox, a web server for the prediction of potential toxicity associated with a given molecule. 174 toxicology-related in vitro/vivo experimental datasets were used for model construction and Mondrian conformal prediction was used to estimate the confidence of the resulting predictions. Toxic substructure analysis is also implemented in eMolTox. eMolTox predicts and displays a wealth of information of potential molecular toxicities for safety analysis in drug development. The eMolTox Server is freely available for use on the web at http://xundrug.cn/moltox. chicago.ji@gmail.com or ab454@cam.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  13. Editorial: disarmament, non proliferation, confidence-building measures, armament control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soutou, Georges-Henri

    2015-01-01

    After having described the vicious circle existing between disarmament and security as it appeared before and during the first World War, the author deals with the specific case of nuclear disarmament as it was first addressed just after the Second World War, and was then not accepted by the Russians. He comments the political and strategical approach adopted by the Kennedy administration, notably within the context of severe crises (Berlin and Cuba). This resulted in the re-establishment of a relationship between war and policy as defined by Clausewitz, but based on a trilogy of three inseparable pairs: deterrence and armament control, armament control and non proliferation, armament control and confidence-building measures. The author shows that this trilogy has been somehow operating until the end of Cold War, and that nothing works anymore since the end of Cold War and of the bipolar world

  14. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  15. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morand, J.; Deperas-Standylo, J.; Urbanik, W.; Moss, R.; Hachem, S.; Sauerwein, W.; Wojcik, A.

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta. (authors)

  16. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morand, Josselin; Deperas-Standylo, Joanna; Urbanik, Witold; Moss, Raymond; Hachem, Sabet; Sauerwein, Wolfgang; Wojcik, Andrzej

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta.

  17. Normalization and psychometric properties of career skills confidence inventory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Jafari

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates normalization and psychometric properties of career skills confidence inventory. For this purpose, we use Betz’s questionnaire [Betz, N. E., Harmon, L., & Borgen, F. (1996. The relationships of self- efficacy for the Holland themes to gender, occupational group membership, and vocational interests. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 43, 90-98.], which consists of 60 questions in three groups of self-awareness, exploration and planning. The study distributes the questionnaire among 600 randomly selected students and analyzes the feedback using Pearson correlation ratios. The results indicate that there are some positive and meaningful correlations between three component and career counseling. There are also positive and meaningful relationships among three components of self-awareness, exploration and planning.

  18. The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence celebrates a decade of work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Mays, C.; Diaconu, D.

    2010-01-01

    Since its foundation in 2000, the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) has fostered constructive dialogues and interactions with hundreds of interested parties in radioactive waste management, ranging from specialists and academic researchers, national and local politicians to local stakeholders and associations. Many of those partners came to Paris in September 2010 to participate in the colloquium 'Looking Back, Looking Forward in Stakeholder Engagement'. This Ten- year Anniversary Colloquium as well as the FSC's eleventh regular meeting on the following two days were open to all interested parties. This article describes the Forum and the online reports in which learning is shared. It highlights the two major topics discussed at the Colloquium and reviews the joint evaluation made there of FSC achievements. Finally, it points to the directions selected for a new decade of work

  19. Stakeholder confidence: observations from the viewpoint of ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.A.

    2003-01-01

    Discussions among the participants of this Forum on Stakeholder Confidence Workshop as well as the Canadian Context and field trip to the Municipality of Port Hope and Clarington often turned to foundational social concerns in radioactive waste facility siting. Intertwined in these topics were less obvious but persistent ethical concerns. Below I articulate some of these ethical issues. I do this by describing four observations I made throughout the week. I suggest that these observations be examined from the viewpoint of ethics and reflect on their complexity. I initiate this paper with a preliminary discussion of the expression 'ethical assessment' referred to throughout the workshop. This expression is key to Canada's new Nuclear Waste Fuel Act (NWFA) requiring proof that this type of assessment occurs in the consideration of potential concepts and hosts for the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  20. CONSEL: for assessing the confidence of phylogenetic tree selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimodaira, H; Hasegawa, M

    2001-12-01

    CONSEL is a program to assess the confidence of the tree selection by giving the p-values for the trees. The main thrust of the program is to calculate the p-value of the Approximately Unbiased (AU) test using the multi-scale bootstrap technique. This p-value is less biased than the other conventional p-values such as the Bootstrap Probability (BP), the Kishino-Hasegawa (KH) test, the Shimodaira-Hasegawa (SH) test, and the Weighted Shimodaira-Hasegawa (WSH) test. CONSEL calculates all these p-values from the output of the phylogeny program packages such as Molphy, PAML, and PAUP*. Furthermore, CONSEL is applicable to a wide class of problems where the BPs are available. The programs are written in C language. The source code for Unix and the executable binary for DOS are found at http://www.ism.ac.jp/~shimo/ shimo@ism.ac.jp

  1. Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Using Monte Carlo Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto S. Flowers-Cano

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Design of hydraulic works requires the estimation of design hydrological events by statistical inference from a probability distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compared coverage of confidence intervals constructed with four bootstrap techniques: percentile bootstrap (BP, bias-corrected bootstrap (BC, accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap (BCA and a modified version of the standard bootstrap (MSB. Different simulation scenarios were analyzed. In some cases, the mother distribution function was fit to the random samples that were generated. In other cases, a distribution function different to the mother distribution was fit to the samples. When the fitted distribution had three parameters, and was the same as the mother distribution, the intervals constructed with the four techniques had acceptable coverage. However, the bootstrap techniques failed in several of the cases in which the fitted distribution had two parameters.

  2. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-01-01

    MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for Calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov Theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the individual estimator with the smallest variance. The importance of MCNP's batch statistics is demonstrated by an investigation of the effects of individual estimator variance bias on the combination of estimators, both heuristically with the analytical study and emprically with MCNP

  3. The 95% confidence intervals of error rates and discriminant coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichi Shinmura

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Fisher proposed a linear discriminant function (Fisher’s LDF. From 1971, we analysed electrocardiogram (ECG data in order to develop the diagnostic logic between normal and abnormal symptoms by Fisher’s LDF and a quadratic discriminant function (QDF. Our four years research was inferior to the decision tree logic developed by the medical doctor. After this experience, we discriminated many data and found four problems of the discriminant analysis. A revised Optimal LDF by Integer Programming (Revised IP-OLDF based on the minimum number of misclassification (minimum NM criterion resolves three problems entirely [13, 18]. In this research, we discuss fourth problem of the discriminant analysis. There are no standard errors (SEs of the error rate and discriminant coefficient. We propose a k-fold crossvalidation method. This method offers a model selection technique and a 95% confidence intervals (C.I. of error rates and discriminant coefficients.

  4. GENERALISED MODEL BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN TWO STAGE CLUSTER SAMPLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Ouma Onyango

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Chambers and Dorfman (2002 constructed bootstrap confidence intervals in model based estimation for finite population totals assuming that auxiliary values are available throughout a target population and that the auxiliary values are independent. They also assumed that the cluster sizes are known throughout the target population. We now extend to two stage sampling in which the cluster sizes are known only for the sampled clusters, and we therefore predict the unobserved part of the population total. Jan and Elinor (2008 have done similar work, but unlike them, we use a general model, in which the auxiliary values are not necessarily independent. We demonstrate that the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimator and its coverage rates are better than those constructed under the model assisted local polynomial regression model.

  5. Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanna eErickson

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  6. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-01-01

    The Monte Carlo code MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the estimator with the smallest variance. Empirically, MCNP examples for several physical systems demonstrate the three-combined estimator's superiority over each of the three individual estimators and its correct coverage rates. Additionally, the importance of MCNP's statistical checks is demonstrated

  7. Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence: their relation with nurses' burnout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V; Fradelos, Evangelos C; Kleisiaris, Christos F; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-12-01

    Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels.

  8. Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeyoung Kim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.

  9. The confidence in diabetes self-care scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Der Ven, Nicole C W; Weinger, Katie; Yi, Joyce

    2003-01-01

    evaluated in Dutch (n = 151) and U.S. (n = 190) outpatients with type 1 diabetes. In addition to the CIDS scale, assessment included HbA(1c), emotional distress, fear of hypoglycemia, self-esteem, anxiety, depression, and self-care behavior. The Dutch sample completed additional measures on perceived burden......OBJECTIVE: To examine psychometric properties of the Confidence in Diabetes Self-Care (CIDS) scale, a newly developed instrument assessing diabetes-specific self-efficacy in Dutch and U.S. patients with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Reliability and validity of the CIDS scale were...... and importance of self-care. Test-retest reliability was established in a second Dutch sample (n = 62). RESULTS: Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86 for Dutch patients and 0.90 U.S. patients) and test-retest reliability (Spearman's r = 0.85, P

  10. How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, B.

    2017-12-01

    Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.

  11. IMPROVING SEMI-GLOBAL MATCHING: COST AGGREGATION AND CONFIDENCE MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. d’Angelo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  12. Confidence interval procedures for Monte Carlo transport simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pederson, S.P.

    1997-01-01

    The problem of obtaining valid confidence intervals based on estimates from sampled distributions using Monte Carlo particle transport simulation codes such as MCNP is examined. Such intervals can cover the true parameter of interest at a lower than nominal rate if the sampled distribution is extremely right-skewed by large tallies. Modifications to the standard theory of confidence intervals are discussed and compared with some existing heuristics, including batched means normality tests. Two new types of diagnostics are introduced to assess whether the conditions of central limit theorem-type results are satisfied: the relative variance of the variance determines whether the sample size is sufficiently large, and estimators of the slope of the right tail of the distribution are used to indicate the number of moments that exist. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the relationship between various diagnostics and coverage rates and to find sample-based quantities useful in indicating when intervals are expected to be valid. Simulated tally distributions are chosen to emulate behavior seen in difficult particle transport problems. Measures of variation in the sample variance s 2 are found to be much more effective than existing methods in predicting when coverage will be near nominal rates. Batched means tests are found to be overly conservative in this regard. A simple but pathological MCNP problem is presented as an example of false convergence using existing heuristics. The new methods readily detect the false convergence and show that the results of the problem, which are a factor of 4 too small, should not be used. Recommendations are made for applying these techniques in practice, using the statistical output currently produced by MCNP

  13. A Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp improves trainee confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Catherine K; Tannous, Paul; DeWitt, Elizabeth; Farias, Michael; Mansfield, Laura; Ronai, Christina; Schidlow, David; Sanders, Stephen P; Lock, James E; Newburger, Jane W; Brown, David W

    2016-12-01

    Introduction New paediatric cardiology trainees are required to rapidly assimilate knowledge and gain clinical skills to which they have limited or no exposure during residency. The Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp (PCBC) at Boston Children's Hospital was designed to provide incoming fellows with an intensive exposure to congenital cardiac pathology and a broad overview of major areas of paediatric cardiology practice. The PCBC curriculum was designed by core faculty in cardiac pathology, echocardiography, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, exercise physiology, and cardiac intensive care. Individual faculty contributed learning objectives, which were refined by fellowship directors and used to build a programme of didactics, hands-on/simulation-based activities, and self-guided learning opportunities. A total of 16 incoming fellows participated in the 4-week boot camp, with no concurrent clinical responsibilities, over 2 years. On the basis of pre- and post-PCBC surveys, 80% of trainees strongly agreed that they felt more prepared for clinical responsibilities, and a similar percentage felt that PCBC should be offered to future incoming fellows. Fellows showed significant increase in their confidence in all specific knowledge and skills related to the learning objectives. Fellows rated hands-on learning experiences and simulation-based exercises most highly. We describe a novel 4-week-long boot camp designed to expose incoming paediatric cardiology fellows to the broad spectrum of knowledge and skills required for the practice of paediatric cardiology. The experience increased trainee confidence and sense of preparedness to begin fellowship-related responsibilities. Given that highly interactive activities were rated most highly, boot camps in paediatric cardiology should strongly emphasise these elements.

  14. A boost of confidence: The role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex in memory, decision-making, and schemas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebscher, Melissa; Gilboa, Asaf

    2016-09-01

    The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been implicated in a wide array of functions across multiple domains. In this review, we focus on the vmPFC's involvement in mediating strategic aspects of memory retrieval, memory-related schema functions, and decision-making. We suggest that vmPFC generates a confidence signal that informs decisions and memory-guided behaviour. Confidence is central to these seemingly diverse functions: (1) Strategic retrieval: lesions to the vmPFC impair an early, automatic, and intuitive monitoring process ("feeling of rightness"; FOR) often associated with confabulation (spontaneous reporting of erroneous memories). Critically, confabulators typically demonstrate high levels of confidence in their false memories, suggesting that faulty monitoring following vmPFC damage may lead to indiscriminate confidence signals. (2) Memory schemas: the vmPFC is critically involved in instantiating and maintaining contextually relevant schemas, broadly defined as higher level knowledge structures that encapsulate lower level representational elements. The correspondence between memory retrieval cues and these activated schemas leads to FOR monitoring. Stronger, more elaborate schemas produce stronger FOR and influence confidence in the veracity of memory candidates. (3) Finally, we review evidence on the vmPFC's role in decision-making, extending this role to decision-making during memory retrieval. During non-mnemonic and mnemonic decision-making the vmPFC automatically encodes confidence. Confidence signal in the vmPFC is revealed as a non-linear relationship between a first-order monitoring assessment and second-order action or choice. Attempting to integrate the multiple functions of the vmPFC, we propose a posterior-anterior organizational principle for this region. More posterior vmPFC regions are involved in earlier, automatic, subjective, and contextually sensitive functions, while more anterior regions are involved in controlled actions

  15. Visualizing Confidence in Cluster-Based Ensemble Weather Forecast Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumpf, Alexander; Tost, Bianca; Baumgart, Marlene; Riemer, Michael; Westermann, Rudiger; Rautenhaus, Marc

    2018-01-01

    In meteorology, cluster analysis is frequently used to determine representative trends in ensemble weather predictions in a selected spatio-temporal region, e.g., to reduce a set of ensemble members to simplify and improve their analysis. Identified clusters (i.e., groups of similar members), however, can be very sensitive to small changes of the selected region, so that clustering results can be misleading and bias subsequent analyses. In this article, we - a team of visualization scientists and meteorologists-deliver visual analytics solutions to analyze the sensitivity of clustering results with respect to changes of a selected region. We propose an interactive visual interface that enables simultaneous visualization of a) the variation in composition of identified clusters (i.e., their robustness), b) the variability in cluster membership for individual ensemble members, and c) the uncertainty in the spatial locations of identified trends. We demonstrate that our solution shows meteorologists how representative a clustering result is, and with respect to which changes in the selected region it becomes unstable. Furthermore, our solution helps to identify those ensemble members which stably belong to a given cluster and can thus be considered similar. In a real-world application case we show how our approach is used to analyze the clustering behavior of different regions in a forecast of "Tropical Cyclone Karl", guiding the user towards the cluster robustness information required for subsequent ensemble analysis.

  16. Forum of stakeholder confidence - Phase II of program of work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bars, Yves

    2006-01-01

    The author welcomed the Forum for Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) participants and introduced the day's meetings that would investigate the possible contributions and conditions for RD and D to support stakeholder confidence. In his introductory remarks, Mr. Le Bars reviewed the intent of this topical discussion and its contribution to the Phase 2 Programme of Work for FSC. Observations were drawn from previous FSC work concerning the evolving requirements for stakeholder involvement that require a new culture within the organizations. It is recognized that each actor must respect certain values and abilities, and have the capacity to communicate, to learn from the public and to adapt. In particular, it was suggested that the role of the expert in the decision-making process has changed, and there is a need to restore credibility to the voice of experts to support the processes relating to radioactive waste management. Mr. Le Bars spoke about the changing role of the 'expert' and increasing demands from the public to be informed, active participants in decision-making processes. As societal expectations have evolved over the years, there is less willingness to give the expert the legitimacy to decide, or the expert working solely with the decision-maker. Rather, there are growing demands for public policies to be defined and implemented through decision-making processes that also invite stakeholder participation, as another important category of actors. Thus, the decision-making process can be viewed as now involving three parties: the public, the experts and decision-makers. Research must be positioned in this context. Research must be part of the process, structure, behaviour and debate. It is meant to be introduced in the process as contributor to the project definition, by providing scientific background. Further, it is best undertaken through an adaptive behaviour, carried out by institutions with a clearly defined and communicated role. In setting

  17. Self-confidence, overconfidence and prenatal testosterone exposure : Evidence from the lab

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalton, Patricio S.; Ghosal, Sayantan

    2018-01-01

    This paper examines whether foetal testosterone exposure predicts the extent of confidence and over-confidence in own absolute ability in adulthood. To study this question, we elicited incentive-compatible measures of confidence and over-confidence in the lab and correlate them with measures of

  18. Estimating confidence intervals in predicted responses for oscillatory biological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Peter C; Doyle, Francis J

    2013-07-29

    The dynamics of gene regulation play a crucial role in a cellular control: allowing the cell to express the right proteins to meet changing needs. Some needs, such as correctly anticipating the day-night cycle, require complicated oscillatory features. In the analysis of gene regulatory networks, mathematical models are frequently used to understand how a network's structure enables it to respond appropriately to external inputs. These models typically consist of a set of ordinary differential equations, describing a network of biochemical reactions, and unknown kinetic parameters, chosen such that the model best captures experimental data. However, since a model's parameter values are uncertain, and since dynamic responses to inputs are highly parameter-dependent, it is difficult to assess the confidence associated with these in silico predictions. In particular, models with complex dynamics - such as oscillations - must be fit with computationally expensive global optimization routines, and cannot take advantage of existing measures of identifiability. Despite their difficulty to model mathematically, limit cycle oscillations play a key role in many biological processes, including cell cycling, metabolism, neuron firing, and circadian rhythms. In this study, we employ an efficient parameter estimation technique to enable a bootstrap uncertainty analysis for limit cycle models. Since the primary role of systems biology models is the insight they provide on responses to rate perturbations, we extend our uncertainty analysis to include first order sensitivity coefficients. Using a literature model of circadian rhythms, we show how predictive precision is degraded with decreasing sample points and increasing relative error. Additionally, we show how this method can be used for model discrimination by comparing the output identifiability of two candidate model structures to published literature data. Our method permits modellers of oscillatory systems to confidently

  19. 10. national workshop of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Kamishan; )

    2017-01-01

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was established by the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) in the year 2000. It fosters learning about stakeholder dialogue and ways to develop shared confidence, informed consent and acceptance of radioactive waste (RW) management solutions. A 'stakeholder' is defined as anyone with a role to play or an interest in the process of deciding about RW management. The FSC provides a setting for direct stakeholder exchange in an atmosphere of mutual respect and learning. Participating in this forum are government policy and regulatory officials, R and D specialists, implementers, and industry representatives from NEA member countries. Together they analyse, document and provide recommendations on today's and tomorrow's processes for embedding waste management programs into a socio-political decision-making context. The FSC convenes annually for a regular meeting and is often complemented by an FSC national workshop. The regular meetings include lectures and topical case study sessions to share experiences. FSC national workshops are organised in volunteer NEA member countries to bring together all the national stakeholders to provide a neutral ground for discussion, dialogue and advancement of knowledge on long-term radioactive waste management. FSC members and other international actors involved in RW management are invited to learn about the host country's waste management program and provide support by giving an external reflection built up on their own experience. They are often supplemented by a half a day devoted to a community visit (potential or selected site for a repository) or open event (public meeting or debate). 2016 marked the 10. national workshop of the FSC which took place in Switzerland. It focused on 'Bridging Gaps - Developing Sustainable Inter-generational Decision-making in Radioactive Waste Management'. The workshop provided a forum for the participants from around the world to learn from

  20. Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebreton, Maël; Langdon, Shari; Slieker, Matthijs J; Nooitgedacht, Jip S; Goudriaan, Anna E; Denys, Damiaan; van Holst, Ruth J; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-05-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts.

  1. Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebreton, Maël; Slieker, Matthijs J.; Nooitgedacht, Jip S.; van Holst, Ruth J.; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts. PMID:29854944

  2. On the form of ROCs constructed from confidence ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malmberg, Kenneth J

    2002-03-01

    A classical question for memory researchers is whether memories vary in an all-or-nothing, discrete manner (e.g., stored vs. not stored, recalled vs. not recalled), or whether they vary along a continuous dimension (e.g., strength, similarity, or familiarity). For yes-no classification tasks, continuous- and discrete-state models predict nonlinear and linear receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), respectively (D. M. Green & J. A. Swets, 1966; N. A. Macmillan & C. D. Creelman, 1991). Recently, several authors have assumed that these predictions are generalizable to confidence ratings tasks (J. Qin, C. L. Raye, M. K. Johnson, & K. J. Mitchell, 2001; S. D. Slotnick, S. A. Klein, C. S. Dodson, & A. P. Shimamura, 2000, and A. P. Yonelinas, 1999). This assumption is shown to be unwarranted by showing that discrete-state ratings models predict both linear and nonlinear ROCs. The critical factor determining the form of the discrete-state ROC is the response strategy adopted by the classifier.

  3. Global upstream investment faces a crisis of confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, Richard

    2001-01-01

    Offshore business appears to be in a catch-22 situation between on the one hand the interests of global economic welfare and on the other the stock market demands. The oil and gas industries need to grow the return on capital and to compete effectively with other (better performing) industries. But, the world demands more oil and very soon, and these are the issues and consequences discussed. The US government is confident that non-Opec oil supply can increase by 12.8 Mbd between now and 2020 and this is significantly more than projected in the last forecast. The article is presented under the headings of (i) value creation paradigm; (ii) spelling it out for 2001 and (iii) big projects, long lead times. Diagrams show (a) world oil demand 1971-2020; (b) fractional change in Brent prices 1986-2001 and (c) wells drilled and annual production in Prudhoe bay 1974-2010. Figures for the International Energy Agency forecast for both Opec and non-Opec countries are mentioned

  4. Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Castro

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007.Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

  5. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel Santos

    Full Text Available Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  6. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  7. Confidence building in and through fission and fusion activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyojiro Fuketa

    1989-01-01

    The peaceful uses of atomic energy are most suitable for achieving worldwide confidence building for the following reasons. (1) In spite of the need for peaceful uses of nuclear energy, the world is facing difficulties in the public perception and acceptance of nuclear works and facilities. (2) The above difficulties are due to many factors, such as the two sides of nuclear energy peaceful and military, the possibility of a large-scale reactor accident, the lack of understanding about radiation and radioactivity, and finally, emotion and egoism. Some of these factors are unique to nuclear-energy, but in other cases of public reactions, there are many facets similar to the above factors. (3) The public concern about safety is at its highest, broadest and severest point ever, coincident with the highest life expectancy in history. Over-precaution and over-protection about certain things may sometimes spoil one's health. Nuclear energy is most definitely suffering from such a trend. As a result, a severe nuclear accident in any country results in severe damage worldwide no manner in what form the real physical effects reach other countries. (4) The huge science and technology efforts required for fission and fusion activities cannot be fully achieved by one country. Explanations of some of the above factors are given. 2 refs

  8. Building confidence and credibility amid growing model and computing complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.; Veneziani, C.; Kennedy, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    As global Earth system models are developed to answer an ever-wider range of science questions, software products that provide robust verification, validation, and evaluation must evolve in tandem. Measuring the degree to which these new models capture past behavior, predict the future, and provide the certainty of predictions is becoming ever more challenging for reasons that are generally well known, yet are still challenging to address. Two specific and divergent needs for analysis of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) model - but with a similar software philosophy - are presented to show how a model developer-based focus can address analysis needs during expansive model changes to provide greater fidelity and execute on multi-petascale computing facilities. A-PRIME is a python script-based quick-look overview of a fully-coupled global model configuration to determine quickly if it captures specific behavior before significant computer time and expense is invested. EVE is an ensemble-based software framework that focuses on verification of performance-based ACME model development, such as compiler or machine settings, to determine the equivalence of relevant climate statistics. The challenges and solutions for analysis of multi-petabyte output data are highlighted from the aspect of the scientist using the software, with the aim of fostering discussion and further input from the community about improving developer confidence and community credibility.

  9. Local confidence limits for IMRT and VMAT techniques: a study based on TG119 test suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, M.; Chandroth, M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to generate a local confidence limit (CL) for intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) techniques used at Waikato Regional Cancer Centre. This work was carried out based on the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Task Group (TG) 119 report. The AAPM TG 119 report recommends CLs as a bench mark for IMRT commissioning and delivery based on its multiple institutions planning and dosimetry comparisons. In this study the locally obtained CLs were compared to TG119 benchmarks. Furthermore, the same bench mark was used to test the capabilities and quality of the VMAT technique in our clinic. The TG 119 test suite consists of two primary and four clinical tests for evaluating the accuracy of IMRT planning and dose delivery systems. Pre defined structure sets contoured on computed tomography images were downloaded from AAPM website and were transferred to a locally designed phantom. For each test case two plans were generated using IMRT and VMAT optimisation. Dose prescriptions and planning objectives recommended by TG119 report were followed to generate the test plans in Eclipse Treatment Planning System. For each plan the point dose measurements were done using an ion chamber at high dose and low dose regions. The planar dose distribution was analysed for percentage of points passing the gamma criteria of 3 %/3 mm, for both the composite plan and individual fields of each plan. The CLs were generated based on the results from the gamma analysis and point dose measurements. For IMRT plans, the CLs obtained were (1) from point dose measurements: 2.49 % at high dose region and 2.95 % for the low dose region (2) from gamma analysis: 2.12 % for individual fields and 5.9 % for the composite plan. For VMAT plans, the CLs obtained were (1) from point dose measurements: 2.56 % at high dose region and 2.6 % for the low dose region (2) from gamma analysis: 1.46 % for individual fields and 0

  10. Accurate confidence aware clustering of array CGH tumor profiles.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Houte, B.P.P.; Heringa, J.

    2010-01-01

    Motivation: Chromosomal aberrations tend to be characteristic for given (sub)types of cancer. Such aberrations can be detected with array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH). Clustering aCGH tumor profiles aids in identifying chromosomal regions of interest and provides useful diagnostic

  11. Reading Confidence with "Tail Waggin' Tutors"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loveridge, Stacy

    2017-01-01

    This report discusses the benefits of canine-assisted reading through the "Tail Waggin' Tutors" program at the Glen Burnie Regional Library in Anne Arundel County, Maryland. Presented are the two different types of therapy dog interactions, Animal-Assisted Therapy (AAT) and Animal-Assisted Activities (AAA). The first canine-assisted…

  12. Empirical methods for controlling false positives and estimating confidence in ChIP-Seq peaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courdy Samir J

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High throughput signature sequencing holds many promises, one of which is the ready identification of in vivo transcription factor binding sites, histone modifications, changes in chromatin structure and patterns of DNA methylation across entire genomes. In these experiments, chromatin immunoprecipitation is used to enrich for particular DNA sequences of interest and signature sequencing is used to map the regions to the genome (ChIP-Seq. Elucidation of these sites of DNA-protein binding/modification are proving instrumental in reconstructing networks of gene regulation and chromatin remodelling that direct development, response to cellular perturbation, and neoplastic transformation. Results Here we present a package of algorithms and software that makes use of control input data to reduce false positives and estimate confidence in ChIP-Seq peaks. Several different methods were compared using two simulated spike-in datasets. Use of control input data and a normalized difference score were found to more than double the recovery of ChIP-Seq peaks at a 5% false discovery rate (FDR. Moreover, both a binomial p-value/q-value and an empirical FDR were found to predict the true FDR within 2–3 fold and are more reliable estimators of confidence than a global Poisson p-value. These methods were then used to reanalyze Johnson et al.'s neuron-restrictive silencer factor (NRSF ChIP-Seq data without relying on extensive qPCR validated NRSF sites and the presence of NRSF binding motifs for setting thresholds. Conclusion The methods developed and tested here show considerable promise for reducing false positives and estimating confidence in ChIP-Seq data without any prior knowledge of the chIP target. They are part of a larger open source package freely available from http://useq.sourceforge.net/.

  13. Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; hide

    2012-01-01

    In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.33.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history.This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

  14. Number of core samples: Mean concentrations and confidence intervals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, L.; Cromar, R.D.; Wilmarth, S.R.; Heasler, P.G.

    1995-01-01

    This document provides estimates of how well the mean concentration of analytes are known as a function of the number of core samples, composite samples, and replicate analyses. The estimates are based upon core composite data from nine recently sampled single-shell tanks. The results can be used when determining the number of core samples needed to ''characterize'' the waste from similar single-shell tanks. A standard way of expressing uncertainty in the estimate of a mean is with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The authors investigate how the width of a 95% CI on the mean concentration decreases as the number of observations increase. Specifically, the tables and figures show how the relative half-width (RHW) of a 95% CI decreases as the number of core samples increases. The RHW of a CI is a unit-less measure of uncertainty. The general conclusions are as follows: (1) the RHW decreases dramatically as the number of core samples is increased, the decrease is much smaller when the number of composited samples or the number of replicate analyses are increase; (2) if the mean concentration of an analyte needs to be estimated with a small RHW, then a large number of core samples is required. The estimated number of core samples given in the tables and figures were determined by specifying different sizes of the RHW. Four nominal sizes were examined: 10%, 25%, 50%, and 100% of the observed mean concentration. For a majority of analytes the number of core samples required to achieve an accuracy within 10% of the mean concentration is extremely large. In many cases, however, two or three core samples is sufficient to achieve a RHW of approximately 50 to 100%. Because many of the analytes in the data have small concentrations, this level of accuracy may be satisfactory for some applications

  15. Political factors in the development and implementation of technology-based confidence-building measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinberg, G.M.

    1989-01-01

    The second half of the 20th century has been characterized by the continuous development and improvement of weapons of mass destruction, including strategic bombers, missiles, chemical and biological agents, and of course, a variety of nuclear weapons. In contrast to the massive change in military capabilities brought about by the rapid development of science and technology, international relations is still dominated by relations between sovereign nation states and characterized by distrust and narrow interests. At the same time that scientific developments created the foundation for the nuclear arms race, however the scientific and technical community has also sought some antidotes. Technology-based confidence building measures (TBCBMS), designed to reduce international conflict and to prevent nuclear war, have been proposed by scientists from the US and the USSR. These TBCBMS have taken a number of forms such as cooperative research and development programs, joint panels and meetings of professional societies, and specially dedicated international forums. These have provided a meeting ground for the exchange of views among scientists from many different countries. In addition, a number of more direct forms of TBCBMS, such as satellite-based observation systems and IAEA nuclear safeguards, have national technical means of verification. More recently, there have been a number of proposals to apply many of these technologies to verification of conventional force reduction, arms control, and other confidence-building measures in context of regional conflicts in the Third World. An International Satellite Monitoring Agency has bee proposed to develop space-based technologies such as observation satellites to increase stability and prevent the outbreak of accidental war in regional contexts such as the Middle East

  16. Functional enrichment analyses and construction of functional similarity networks with high confidence function prediction by PFP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kihara Daisuke

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A new paradigm of biological investigation takes advantage of technologies that produce large high throughput datasets, including genome sequences, interactions of proteins, and gene expression. The ability of biologists to analyze and interpret such data relies on functional annotation of the included proteins, but even in highly characterized organisms many proteins can lack the functional evidence necessary to infer their biological relevance. Results Here we have applied high confidence function predictions from our automated prediction system, PFP, to three genome sequences, Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Plasmodium falciparum (malaria. The number of annotated genes is increased by PFP to over 90% for all of the genomes. Using the large coverage of the function annotation, we introduced the functional similarity networks which represent the functional space of the proteomes. Four different functional similarity networks are constructed for each proteome, one each by considering similarity in a single Gene Ontology (GO category, i.e. Biological Process, Cellular Component, and Molecular Function, and another one by considering overall similarity with the funSim score. The functional similarity networks are shown to have higher modularity than the protein-protein interaction network. Moreover, the funSim score network is distinct from the single GO-score networks by showing a higher clustering degree exponent value and thus has a higher tendency to be hierarchical. In addition, examining function assignments to the protein-protein interaction network and local regions of genomes has identified numerous cases where subnetworks or local regions have functionally coherent proteins. These results will help interpreting interactions of proteins and gene orders in a genome. Several examples of both analyses are highlighted. Conclusion The analyses demonstrate that applying high confidence predictions from PFP

  17. Physicians' Perception of Teratogenic Risk and Confidence in Prescribing Drugs in Pregnancy-Influence of Norwegian Drug Information Centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakkebø, Tina; Widnes, Sofia Frost; Aamlid, Synnøve Stubmo; Schjøtt, Jan

    2016-05-01

    Clinical decision support provided by drug information centers is an intervention that can ensure rational drug therapy for pregnant women. We have examined whether physicians' teratogenic risk perceptions and confidence in prescribing drugs to pregnant women is altered after advice from the Norwegian drug information centers, Regional Medicines and Pharmacovigilance Centres i Norway (RELIS). Physicians who consulted RELIS for advice on patient-specific drug use in pregnancy from November 2013 to April 2014 completed questionnaires before and after receiving the advice. A scale from 1 to 7 was used to rate confidence in prescribing and perception of teratogenic risk. The lower part of the scale represented a low perception of teratogenic risk and a high confidence in prescribing a drug in pregnancy. The data were analyzed using a mixed linear model. A total of 45 physicians participated in the study and they assessed 64 drugs or categories of drugs. Advice from RELIS increased confidence in prescribing, with a statistically significant mean change on the scale from 4.1 to 2.9. The assessment of teratogenic risk was reduced after advice from RELIS, with a mean change from 3.2 to 2.5, though this was not significant. A subgroup of 26 physicians completed questionnaires both before and after advice from RELIS and assessed a total of 32 drugs or categories of drugs. In 94% of these assessments, advice from RELIS altered the physician's confidence in prescribing. Perception of teratogenic risk was altered in 78% of the assessments. Our results show that physicians' perception of teratogenic risk and confidence in prescribing drugs to pregnant women is influenced by advice from Norwegian drug information centers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

  19. Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tak Fung

    Full Text Available The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%, a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L., occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

  20. Use of analogues to build technologists' confidence: NAnet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noseck, Ulrich

    2008-01-01

    processes occurring at the geosphere-biosphere interface and in the surface environment. One of the primary outputs of the NAnet project has been the compilation of reviews of more than 70 individual analogue studies with relevance for the near-field, far field or biosphere. Each analogue study review was documented using a standard review template that includes sections concerned with performance assessment relevance and applications, limitations of the analogue, a summary of any particular quantitative information derived from the study, an assessment of the uncertainties associated with the qualitative and quantitative information, an indication of the time-scales covered by the analogue and reference to any applications in communication and links to the primary literature. A simple referencing system was developed that enables safety assessors and communication specialists rapidly to find all those analogues that relate to their specific issues and interests. It is based on a simple matrix that has on one axis the range of materials and on the other axis the range of processes that can occur in the repository system. Intersections of the axes identify unique material-process combinations and analogue studies can be listed at the appropriate intersections. Two generic analogue matrices have been developed, one for the near-field and one for the far-field. Combining analogue studies with field and laboratory investigations provides a powerful means of investigating the natural processes which will occur in the repository environment because the disadvantages of one method are balanced by the advantages of the other. In order to illustrate how analogues can contribute to build technologists confidence, examples for the three different roles of analogues are given. Analogue studies contribute to technologists confidence by increasing the understanding of processes that control the evolution of the repository system over time. Qualitative information from analogues is of

  1. Functional Dissociation of Confident and Not-Confident Errors in the Spatial Delayed Response Task Demonstrates Impairments in Working Memory Encoding and Maintenance in Schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jutta S. Mayer

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Even though extensively investigated, the nature of working memory (WM deficits in patients with schizophrenia (PSZ is not yet fully understood. In particular, the contribution of different WM sub-processes to the severe WM deficit observed in PSZ is a matter of debate. So far, most research has focused on impaired WM maintenance. By analyzing different types of errors in a spatial delayed response task (DRT, we have recently demonstrated that incorrect yet confident responses (which we labeled as false memory errors rather than incorrect/not-confident responses reflect failures of WM encoding, which was also impaired in PSZ. In the present study, we provide further evidence for a functional dissociation between confident and not-confident errors by manipulating the demands on WM maintenance, i.e., the length over which information has to be maintained in WM. Furthermore, we investigate whether these functionally distinguishable WM processes are impaired in PSZ. Twenty-four PSZ and 24 demographically matched healthy controls (HC performed a spatial DRT in which the length of the delay period was varied between 1, 2, 4, and 6 s. In each trial, participants also rated their level of response confidence. Across both groups, longer delays led to increased rates of incorrect/not-confident responses, while incorrect/confident responses were not affected by delay length. This functional dissociation provides additional support for our proposal that false memory errors (i.e., confident errors reflect problems at the level of WM encoding, while not-confident errors reflect failures of WM maintenance. Schizophrenic patients showed increased numbers of both confident and not-confident errors, suggesting that both sub-processes of WM—encoding and maintenance—are impaired in schizophrenia. Combined with the delay length-dependent functional dissociation, we propose that these impairments in schizophrenic patients are functionally distinguishable.

  2. Sorption databases for increasing confidence in performance assessment - 16053

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, Anke; Brendler, Vinzenz; Nebelung, Cordula; Payne, Timothy E.; Brasser, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    World-wide activities focus on the remediation of radioactively contaminated sites. One common aim is to deliver a more profound chemical base for risk assessment, namely all those physico-chemical phenomena governing the contamination plume development in time and space. Coupled transport codes able to tackle this challenge have to simplify the resulting very complex reaction pattern. To do so in an adequate way requires extending the knowledge about retardation and mobilisation phenomena and the underlying basic processes and interactions (e.g. physisorption, chemisorption, surface precipitation). Interactions at the solid-liquid interface can be described by complementary approaches, the empirical K d concept and the mechanistic Surface Complexation Models (SCM). K d 's are used by most reactive transport and risk assessment codes due to the straightforward numerics involved. In addition, the K d concept is often the only feasible option for complex solid phases. However, the K d concept is a rather simplistic approach. Many very different basic physicochemical phenomena are subsumed in just one conditional parameter. Therefore, extrapolating K d values may yield very large uncertainties. SCM account adsorption of ions on surface sites as complexation reaction comparable to complexation in solution. The electrical charge at the surface is determined by the chemical reactions of the mineral functional groups, including acid-base reactions and formation of ion pairs and coordinative complexes. The required parameters are site-independent and applicable despite large variations in geochemical conditions. This presents a high potential to increase confidence in safety analysis and risk assessment studies (performance assessment). The mechanistic description of sorption processes with SCM allows a thermodynamically consistent calculation of the species distribution between liquid and solid phase combined with more reliable inter- and extrapolations. However, this

  3. Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

    2007-01-01

    For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations.

  4. Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

  5. Accuracy and confidence of visual short-term memory do not go hand-in-hand: behavioral and neural dissociations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Bona

    Full Text Available Currently influential models of working memory posit that memory content is highly accessible to conscious inspection. These models predict that metacognition of memory performance should go hand-in-hand with the accuracy of the underlying memory representation. To test this view, we investigated how visual information presented during the maintenance period affects VSTM accuracy and confidence. We used a delayed cue-target orientation discrimination task in which participants were asked to hold in memory a grating, and during the maintenance period a second memory cue could be presented. VSTM accuracy of the first memory cue was impaired when the orientation of the second memory cue was sufficiently different. However, participants' response confidence was reduced whenever the second memory cue was presented; thus VSTM accuracy and confidence were dissociated. In a second experiment, we applied transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS over the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC to investigate the causal role of this region in VSTM metacognition. Relative to the sham condition, anodal tDCS induced a general reduction in confidence ratings but did not affect VSTM accuracy. Overall, these results indicate that our metacognition of memory performance is influenced by factors other than the accuracy of the underlying memory representation.

  6. Accuracy and Confidence of Visual Short-Term Memory Do Not Go Hand-In-Hand: Behavioral and Neural Dissociations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bona, Silvia; Silvanto, Juha

    2014-01-01

    Currently influential models of working memory posit that memory content is highly accessible to conscious inspection. These models predict that metacognition of memory performance should go hand-in-hand with the accuracy of the underlying memory representation. To test this view, we investigated how visual information presented during the maintenance period affects VSTM accuracy and confidence. We used a delayed cue–target orientation discrimination task in which participants were asked to hold in memory a grating, and during the maintenance period a second memory cue could be presented. VSTM accuracy of the first memory cue was impaired when the orientation of the second memory cue was sufficiently different. However, participants' response confidence was reduced whenever the second memory cue was presented; thus VSTM accuracy and confidence were dissociated. In a second experiment, we applied transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) to investigate the causal role of this region in VSTM metacognition. Relative to the sham condition, anodal tDCS induced a general reduction in confidence ratings but did not affect VSTM accuracy. Overall, these results indicate that our metacognition of memory performance is influenced by factors other than the accuracy of the underlying memory representation. PMID:24663094

  7. The influence of endogenous and exogenous spatial attention on decision confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Kurtz, Phillipp; Shapcott, Katharine A.; Kaiser , Jochen; Schmiedt, Joscha T.; Schmid, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Spatial attention allows us to make more accurate decisions about events in our environment. Decision confidence is thought to be intimately linked to the decision making process as confidence ratings are tightly coupled to decision accuracy. While both spatial attention and decision confidence have been subjected to extensive research, surprisingly little is known about the interaction between these two processes. Since attention increases performance it might be expected that confidence wou...

  8. Errors and Predictors of Confidence in Condom Use amongst Young Australians Attending a Music Festival

    OpenAIRE

    Hall, Karina M.; Brieger, Daniel G.; De Silva, Sukhita H.; Pfister, Benjamin F.; Youlden, Daniel J.; John-Leader, Franklin; Pit, Sabrina W.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To determine the confidence and ability to use condoms correctly and consistently and the predictors of confidence in young Australians attending a festival. Methods. 288 young people aged 18 to 29 attending a mixed-genre music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, self-reported confidence using condoms, ability to use condoms, and issues experienced when using condoms in the past 12 months. Results. Self-reported confidence using condoms was high (77%). Multivariate...

  9. Enhancing regional security agreements through cooperative monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    This paper proposes that strengthening regional capabilities for formulating and implementing arms control and confidence-building measures is a tangible method of enhancing regional security. It discusses the importance of developing a regional infrastructure for arms control and confidence building and elucidates the role of technology in facilitating regional arms control and confidence-building agreements. In addition, it identifies numerous applications for regional cooperative monitoring in the areas of arms control, resource management, international commerce and disaster response. The Cooperative Monitoring Center at Sandia National Laboratories, whose aim is to help individual countries and regions acquire the tools they need to develop their own solutions to regional problems, is discussed briefly. The paper ends with recommendations for establishing regional cooperative monitoring centers

  10. Two sides of the same coin : Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lebreton, Maël; Langdon, Shari; Slieker, Matthijs J; Nooitgedacht, Jip S; Goudriaan, Anna E; Denys, D.; van Holst, Ruth J; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by

  11. 77 FR 55833 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-11

    ... on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review and Request for Public Comment on... potential approaches for providing Consumer Confidence Reports (CCR) via electronic delivery. EPA plans to... meeting to give EPA time to process your request. Background Consumer Confidence Reports are a key part of...

  12. 77 FR 5471 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-03

    ... Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review AGENCY... stakeholder input on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule as part of the agency's Retrospective Review of... Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA, section 1414(c)). The Consumer Confidence Report, or CCR, is an annual...

  13. 78 FR 57538 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-19

    ..., Chief, Communication, Planning, and Rulemaking Branch Waste Confidence Directorate, Office of Nuclear...-2012-0246] RIN 3150-AJ20 Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact... disposal (proposed Waste Confidence rule). In addition, the NRC will receive public comment on its...

  14. Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

    2018-01-01

    Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

  15. Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve P. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

    2007-01-01

    For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations. To develop these confidence bounds and test, we first establish that estimators based on Newton steps from n-...

  16. Confidence intervals for experiments with background and small numbers of events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruechle, W.

    2003-01-01

    Methods to find a confidence interval for Poisson distributed variables are illuminated, especially for the case of poor statistics. The application of 'central' and 'highest probability density' confidence intervals is compared for the case of low count-rates. A method to determine realistic estimates of the confidence intervals for Poisson distributed variables affected with background, and their ratios, is given. (orig.)

  17. Confidence intervals for experiments with background and small numbers of events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruechle, W.

    2002-07-01

    Methods to find a confidence interval for Poisson distributed variables are illuminated, especially for the case of poor statistics. The application of 'central' and 'highest probability density' confidence intervals is compared for the case of low count-rates. A method to determine realistic estimates of the confidence intervals for Poisson distributed variables affected with background, and their ratios, is given. (orig.)

  18. Diagnostic confidence analysis in the magnetic resonance imaging of ovarian and deep endometriosis: comparison with surgical results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saba, Luca; Sulcis, Rosa; Ibba, Giannina; Piga, Mario [Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria, Department of Radiology, Monserrato (Italy); Melis, Gian Benedetto; Guerriero, Stefano [Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria, Department of Gynecology, Monserrato (Italy); Alcazar, Juan Luis [University of Navarra, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Clinica Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain)

    2014-02-15

    To assess the diagnostic confidence of multiple readers in the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) diagnosis of endometriosis. Sixty-five patients (mean age 33; range 19-45 years) who had undergone MRI were retrospectively evaluated. Five regions were analysed and the presence of endometriosis was scored on a five-point scale in order to assess the diagnostic confidence. Statistical analysis included receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the Cohen weighted test and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy, positive likelihood ratio (LR+) and negative likelihood ratio (LR-). The areas under the curve (AUC) in the detection of ovarian endometrioma were 0.942, 0.893 and 0.883 for readers 1, 2 and 3, respectively; in the uterosacral ligament (USL) AUCs were 0.907, 0.804 and 0.842; in the vaginal fornix (VF) 0.819, 0.733 and 0.69; in the anterior compartment 0.916, 0.833 and 0.873; and in the rectum/sigma/pouch of Douglas (RSD) 0.936, 0.856 and 0.834. Diagnostic confidence of the observers is different according to the region of the nodules of endometriosis and it can be challenging in the VF and for the less experience readers also in the AC and RSD. Moreover the degree of uncertain diagnosis for the less expert readers may reach up to one third of the examinations. (orig.)

  19. Diagnostic confidence analysis in the magnetic resonance imaging of ovarian and deep endometriosis: comparison with surgical results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saba, Luca; Sulcis, Rosa; Ibba, Giannina; Piga, Mario; Melis, Gian Benedetto; Guerriero, Stefano; Alcazar, Juan Luis

    2014-01-01

    To assess the diagnostic confidence of multiple readers in the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) diagnosis of endometriosis. Sixty-five patients (mean age 33; range 19-45 years) who had undergone MRI were retrospectively evaluated. Five regions were analysed and the presence of endometriosis was scored on a five-point scale in order to assess the diagnostic confidence. Statistical analysis included receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the Cohen weighted test and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy, positive likelihood ratio (LR+) and negative likelihood ratio (LR-). The areas under the curve (AUC) in the detection of ovarian endometrioma were 0.942, 0.893 and 0.883 for readers 1, 2 and 3, respectively; in the uterosacral ligament (USL) AUCs were 0.907, 0.804 and 0.842; in the vaginal fornix (VF) 0.819, 0.733 and 0.69; in the anterior compartment 0.916, 0.833 and 0.873; and in the rectum/sigma/pouch of Douglas (RSD) 0.936, 0.856 and 0.834. Diagnostic confidence of the observers is different according to the region of the nodules of endometriosis and it can be challenging in the VF and for the less experience readers also in the AC and RSD. Moreover the degree of uncertain diagnosis for the less expert readers may reach up to one third of the examinations. (orig.)

  20. Post choice information integration as a causal determinant of confidence: Novel data and a computational account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Rani; Teodorescu, Andrei R; Usher, Marius

    2015-05-01

    Confidence judgments are pivotal in the performance of daily tasks and in many domains of scientific research including the behavioral sciences, psychology and neuroscience. Positive resolution i.e., the positive correlation between choice-correctness and choice-confidence is a critical property of confidence judgments, which justifies their ubiquity. In the current paper, we study the mechanism underlying confidence judgments and their resolution by investigating the source of the inputs for the confidence-calculation. We focus on the intriguing debate between two families of confidence theories. According to single stage theories, confidence is based on the same information that underlies the decision (or on some other aspect of the decision process), whereas according to dual stage theories, confidence is affected by novel information that is collected after the decision was made. In three experiments, we support the case for dual stage theories by showing that post-choice perceptual availability manipulations exert a causal effect on confidence-resolution in the decision followed by confidence paradigm. These finding establish the role of RT2, the duration of the post-choice information-integration stage, as a prime dependent variable that theories of confidence should account for. We then present a novel list of robust empirical patterns ('hurdles') involving RT2 to guide further theorizing about confidence judgments. Finally, we present a unified computational dual stage model for choice, confidence and their latencies namely, the collapsing confidence boundary model (CCB). According to CCB, a diffusion-process choice is followed by a second evidence-integration stage towards a stochastic collapsing confidence boundary. Despite its simplicity, CCB clears the entire list of hurdles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Physiotherapy students' experience, confidence and attitudes on the causes and management of violent and aggressive behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubbs, Brendon; Rayment, Nick; Soundy, Andrew

    2011-12-01

    Healthcare professionals are at risk of experiencing violent and aggressive behaviour from patients. This is most notable in those with least experience, such as students, yet little reported research has considered the experiences of physiotherapy students. The aims of this study were to: (1) explore the incidence and nature of violent and aggressive behaviour experienced by physiotherapy students; and (2) consider the attitudes and confidence of the students in dealing with such behaviour. Retrospective survey. A university in the Midlands region of the UK. Sixty-four final year physiotherapy students. The Management of Aggression and Violence Attitude Scale and an additional survey. Over half (33/64, 52%) of the respondents had experienced at least one incident of violent and aggressive behaviour on a clinical placement. The overwhelming majority of victims (60/64, 94%) did not feel adequately confident to deal with such situations. However, no incidents were officially reported to the university. Both victims and non-victims agreed broadly with the internal model of the causes of aggression and violence, but significantly (P=0.02) more victims did not associate the violent and aggressive behaviour with the responsibility of the patient to control their feelings. Many physiotherapy students experience at least one incident of violent and aggressive behaviour whilst on a clinical placement. Training in the recognition and management of violent and aggressive behaviour would be a beneficial addition to the curricula of physiotherapy programmes. Further larger scale research is warranted. Copyright © 2011 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. STEM development: A study of 6th--12th grade girls' interest and confidence in mathematics and science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaverlo, Carol Ann

    Researchers, policymakers, business, and industry have indicated that the United States will experience a shortage of professionals in the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields. Several strategies have been suggested to address this shortage, one of which includes increasing the representation of girls and women in the STEM fields. In order to increase the representation of women in the STEM fields, it is important to understand the developmental factors that impact girls' interest and confidence in STEM academics and extracurricular programs. Research indicates that greater confidence leads to greater interest and vice versa (Denissen et al., 2007). This study identifies factors that impact girls' interest and confidence in mathematics and science, defined as girls' STEM development. Using Bronfenbrenner's (2005) bioecological model of human development, several factors were hypothesized as having an impact on girls' STEM development; specifically, the macrosystems of region of residence and race/ethnicity, and the microsystems of extracurricular STEM activities, family STEM influence, and math/science teacher influence. Hierarchical regression analysis results indicated that extracurricular STEM involvement and math teacher influence were statistically significant predictors for 6--12th grade girls' interest and confidence in mathematics. Furthermore, hierarchical regression analysis results indicated that the only significant predictor for 6--12th grade girls' interest and confidence in science was science teacher influence. This study provides new knowledge about the factors that impact girls' STEM development. Results can be used to inform and guide educators, administrators, and policy makers in developing programs and policy that support and encourage the STEM development of 6--12th grade girls.

  3. Impact of an Advanced Cardiac Life Support Simulation Laboratory Experience on Pharmacy Student Confidence and Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Whitney D; Mohorn, Phillip L; Haney, Jason S; Phillips, Cynthia M; Lu, Z Kevin; Clark, Kimberly; Corboy, Alex; Ragucci, Kelly R

    2016-10-25

    Objective. To assess the impact of an advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) simulation on pharmacy student confidence and knowledge. Design. Third-year pharmacy students participated in a simulation experience that consisted of team roles training, high-fidelity ACLS simulations, and debriefing. Students completed a pre/postsimulation confidence and knowledge assessment. Assessment. Overall, student knowledge assessment scores and student confidence scores improved significantly. Student confidence and knowledge changes from baseline were not significantly correlated. Conversely, a significant, weak positive correlation between presimulation studying and both presimulation confidence and presimulation knowledge was discovered. Conclusions. Overall, student confidence and knowledge assessment scores in ACLS significantly improved from baseline; however, student confidence and knowledge were not significantly correlated.

  4. The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony

    2013-12-01

    The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand.

  5. 77 FR 11022 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of Alaska; Regional Haze State...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-24

    ... protocol was developed. See Figure III.K.5-2 of the SIP submittal. Included Sources--Emission sources... Implementation Plan (SIP) revision, submitted by the State of Alaska on April 4, 2011, as meeting the.... Requirements for Regional Haze SIPs A. The CAA and the Regional Haze Rule B. Baseline, Natural Conditions, and...

  6. Changing job seekers' image perceptions during recruitment visits: the moderating role of belief confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaughter, Jerel E; Cable, Daniel M; Turban, Daniel B

    2014-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand how an important construct in social psychology-confidence in one's beliefs-could both (a) influence the effectiveness of organizations' recruiting processes and (b) be changed during recruitment. Using a sample of recruits to a branch of the United States military, the authors studied belief confidence before and after recruits' formal visits to the organization's recruiting stations. Personal sources of information had a stronger influence on recruits' belief confidence than impersonal sources. Moreover, recruits' confidence in their initial beliefs affected how perceptions of the recruiter changed their employer images. Among participants with low-initial confidence, the relation between recruitment experiences and employer images was positive and linear across the whole range of recruitment experiences. Among recruits with high-initial confidence, however, the recruitment experience-image relationship was curvilinear, such that recruitment experiences were related to images only at more positive recruitment experiences. The relationship between recruitment experiences and changes in belief confidence was also curvilinear, such that only more positive recruitment experiences led to changes in confidence. These results indicate not only that belief confidence influences the effectiveness of recruiting efforts but also that recruiting efforts can influence belief confidence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. A Comparative Study of Self-Confidence from the Perspectives of Quran, Ahadith and Psychology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayyed Ali Mostajaboldavati

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Self-confidence, referring to relying on and exploiting individual abilities and talents for realizing spiritual and material prosperity, not only contradicts but is in agreement with and a prerequisite for faith in God. Practically, the greater faith in God one has, the more potent self-confidence he /she possess. Investigating the subject of self-confidence from the perspectives of Quran, Ahadith and psychology, this study explores the meaning of self (soul in self-confidence and its levels, the prerequisites for development and enhancement of self-confidence, the association of self-concept and self-esteem with self-confidence, and the approaches to develop and enhance positive self-concept as well as to boost self-confidence. Methods: The data of this descriptive review article were gathered from library and digital references. Results: Although it appears that self-confidence contradicts Islamic teachings, it can be clearly understood that this teaching subject is confirmed and emphasized in Islamic teachings by discovery of its true meaning. Conclusion: If having self-confidence is meant to rely on and exploiting individual abilities and talents to reach material and spiritual prosperity, it not only does not contradict but is in agreement with and a prerequisite for faith in God. Self in self- confidence indeed means human as a combination of the body and the spirit which is fully consistent with indices of self-confidence. According to psychologists, improving self-esteem and positive self-concept affects self-confidence directly. From perspective of religion, paying attention to venerability and God-given dignity of human, recognizing the superb purpose in life, etc. are approaches to develop and enhance positive self-concept and self-esteem, and to boost self-confidence.

  8. Assessment by citizens of the level of confidence of police and protection from criminal entry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna A. Glukhova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective on the basis of sociological research to determine the level of confidence in police among the population of Nizhny Novgorod region and to measure the subjective assessment by citizens of the degree of protection from criminal attacks. Methods general scientific analysis systemicstructural approach to the analysis of research object comparativelegal as well as logical methods and the special scientific method questionnaire method ndash questioning of residents of Nizhny Novgorod region. Results the characteristics of the process of actual interaction between citizens and police are identified and classified the attitude to police and the level of trust in police in general and in certain areas of their work in various categories of the population are identified the typology of population groups depending on their concepts about police functioning is carried out. Scientific novelty for the first time the article discusses public opinion of the Nizhny Novgorod region residents about police officers the actual characteristics and interaction between citizens and police are revealed proposals and practical recommendations were formulated for adjustment of the work of territorial bodies of the Ministry of Interior with the aim of increasing the level of their credibility with the population. Among them are a to improve the efficiency of propaganda of the police work results in mass media including the work with citizensrsquo claims disclosure and investigation of crimes especially those which caused a broad public resonance b to inform citizens and police officers about the social importance of the activities of Internal Affairs bodies and internal troops for ensuring public order prevention suppression disclosure of crimes and offences c to expand the number of journalists specializing in lawenforcement issues d to simplify the procedure for receiving claims from citizens about small and medium crimes with the use of modern technologies

  9. Thought confidence as a determinant of persuasion: the self-validation hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, Richard E; Briñol, Pablo; Tormala, Zakary L

    2002-05-01

    Previous research in the domain of attitude change has described 2 primary dimensions of thinking that impact persuasion processes and outcomes: the extent (amount) of thinking and the direction (valence) of issue-relevant thought. The authors examined the possibility that another, more meta-cognitive aspect of thinking is also important-the degree of confidence people have in their own thoughts. Four studies test the notion that thought confidence affects the extent of persuasion. When positive thoughts dominate in response to a message, increasing confidence in those thoughts increases persuasion, but when negative thoughts dominate, increasing confidence decreases persuasion. In addition, using self-reported and manipulated thought confidence in separate studies, the authors provide evidence that the magnitude of the attitude-thought relationship depends on the confidence people have in their thoughts. Finally, the authors also show that these self-validation effects are most likely in situations that foster high amounts of information processing activity.

  10. Balance confidence is related to features of balance and gait in individuals with chronic stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Wong, Jennifer S.; Mansfield, Avril

    2016-01-01

    Reduced balance confidence is associated with impairments in features of balance and gait in individuals with sub-acute stroke. However, an understanding of these relationships in individuals at the chronic stage of stroke recovery is lacking. This study aimed to quantify relationships between balance confidence and specific features of balance and gait in individuals with chronic stroke. Participants completed a balance confidence questionnaire and clinical balance assessment (quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping) at 6 months post-discharge from inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Regression analyses were performed using balance confidence as a predictor variable and quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping outcome measures as the dependent variables. Walking velocity was positively correlated with balance confidence, while medio-lateral centre of pressure excursion (quiet standing) and double support time, step width variability, and step time variability (walking) were negatively correlated with balance confidence. This study provides insight into the relationships between balance confidence and balance and gait measures in individuals with chronic stroke, suggesting that individuals with low balance confidence exhibited impaired control of quiet standing as well as walking characteristics associated with cautious gait strategies. Future work should identify the direction of these relationships to inform community-based stroke rehabilitation programs for individuals with chronic stroke, and determine the potential utility of incorporating interventions to improve balance confidence into these programs. PMID:27955809

  11. The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

    2017-06-01

    There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

  12. Establishing and communicating confidence in the safety of deep geologic disposal. Approaches and arguments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Confidence among both technical experts and the public in the safety of deep geologic repositories for radioactive waste is a key element in the successful development of the repositories. This report presents the approaches and arguments that are currently used in OECD countries to establish and communicate confidence in their safety. It evaluates the state of the art for obtaining, presenting and demonstrating confidence in long-term safety, and makes recommendations on future directions and initiatives to be taken for improving confidence. (author)

  13. Summary of the activities of the ISAM Confidence Building Working Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolinar, G.M.; Batandjieva, B.

    2002-01-01

    During the early stages of the ISAM project confidence building was a relatively new topic in the radioactive waste disposal literature, but it was beginning to receive some attention. Although almost all safety assessment activities are intended to provide a level of confidence in the results of the assessment, considering the activities from the viewpoint of how they contributed to the decision making of various 'audiences' was relatively new. The ISAM project included the Confidence Building Working Group (CBWG) to examine the topic of Confidence Building and this paper provides a summary of the working group findings. (author)

  14. The Influence of Endogenous and Exogenous Spatial Attention on Decision Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Phillipp; Shapcott, Katharine A; Kaiser, Jochen; Schmiedt, Joscha T; Schmid, Michael C

    2017-07-25

    Spatial attention allows us to make more accurate decisions about events in our environment. Decision confidence is thought to be intimately linked to the decision making process as confidence ratings are tightly coupled to decision accuracy. While both spatial attention and decision confidence have been subjected to extensive research, surprisingly little is known about the interaction between these two processes. Since attention increases performance it might be expected that confidence would also increase. However, two studies investigating the effects of endogenous attention on decision confidence found contradictory results. Here we investigated the effects of two distinct forms of spatial attention on decision confidence; endogenous attention and exogenous attention. We used an orientation-matching task, comparing the two attention conditions (endogenous and exogenous) to a control condition without directed attention. Participants performed better under both attention conditions than in the control condition. Higher confidence ratings than the control condition were found under endogenous attention but not under exogenous attention. This finding suggests that while attention can increase confidence ratings, it must be voluntarily deployed for this increase to take place. We discuss possible implications of this relative overconfidence found only during endogenous attention with respect to the theoretical background of decision confidence.

  15. Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2017-01-01

    Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

  16. Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel B

    2007-02-01

    Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

  17. The application of deep confidence network in the problem of image recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chumachenko О.І.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the concept of deep learning, in particular the substitution of multilayer perceptron on the corresponding network of deep confidence, computer simulations of the learning process to test voters was carried out. Multi-layer perceptron has been replaced by a network of deep confidence, consisting of successive limited Boltzmann machines. After training of a network of deep confidence algorithm of layer-wise training it was found that the use of networks of deep confidence greatly improves the accuracy of multilayer perceptron training by method of reverse distribution errors.

  18. Single-Pol Synthetic Aperture Radar Terrain Classification using Multiclass Confidence for One-Class Classifiers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Mark William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Steinbach, Ryan Matthew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Moya, Mary M [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Except in the most extreme conditions, Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is a remote sensing technology that can operate day or night. A SAR can provide surveillance over a long time period by making multiple passes over a wide area. For object-based intelligence it is convenient to segment and classify the SAR images into objects that identify various terrains and man-made structures that we call “static features.” In this paper we introduce a novel SAR image product that captures how different regions decorrelate at different rates. Using superpixels and their first two moments we develop a series of one-class classification algorithms using a goodness-of-fit metric. P-value fusion is used to combine the results from different classes. We also show how to combine multiple one-class classifiers to get a confidence about a classification. This can be used by downstream algorithms such as a conditional random field to enforce spatial constraints.

  19. Blind RSSD-Based Indoor Localization with Confidence Calibration and Energy Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tengyue Zou

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Indoor localization based on wireless sensor networks (WSNs is an important field of research with numerous applications, such as elderly care, miner security, and smart buildings. In this paper, we present a localization method based on the received signal strength difference (RSSD to determine a target on a map with unknown transmission information. To increase the accuracy of localization, we propose a confidence value for each anchor node to indicate its credibility for participating in the estimation. An automatic calibration device is designed to help acquire the values. The acceleration sensor and unscented Kalman filter (UKF are also introduced to reduce the influence of measuring noise in the application. Energy control is another key point in WSN systems and may prolong the lifetime of the system. Thus, a quadtree structure is constructed to describe the region correlation between neighboring areas, and the unnecessary anchor nodes can be detected and set to sleep to save energy. The localization system is implemented on real-time Texas Instruments CC2430 and CC2431 embedded platforms, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms achieve a high accuracy and low energy cost.

  20. Confidence building on the Korean Peninsula: A conceptual development for the cooperative monitoring of limited-force deployment zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vannoni, M.; Duggan, R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Cooperative Monitoring Center; Nam, M.K.; Moon, K.K.; Kim, M.J. [Korea Inst. for Defense Analyses, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Arms Control Research Center

    1997-04-01

    Confidence building measures (CBMs), particularly military ones, that address the security needs of North and South Korea could decrease the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and help create an environment in which to negotiate a peace regime. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) and the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) of Sandia National Laboratories collaborated to identify potential CBMs and define associated monitoring. The project is a conceptual analysis of political and technical options for confidence building that might be feasible in Korea at some future time. KIDA first analyzed current security conditions and options for CBMs. Their conclusions are presented as a hypothetical agreement to strengthen the Armistice Agreement by establishing Limited Force Deployment Zones along the Military Demarcation Line. The goal of the hypothetical agreement is to increase mutual security and build confidence. The CMC then used KIDA`s scenario to develop a strategy for cooperative monitoring the agreement. Cooperative monitoring is the collecting, analyzing and sharing of agreed information among parties to an agreement and typically relies on the use of commercially available technology. A cooperative monitoring regime must be consistent with the agreement`s terms; the geographic, logistic, military, and political factors in the Korean setting; and the capabilities of monitoring technologies. This report describes the security situation on the Korean peninsula, relevant precedents from other regions, the hypothetical agreement for reducing military tensions, a monitoring strategy for the hypothetical Korean agreement, examples of implementation, and a description of applicable monitoring technologies and procedures.

  1. The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

  2. Radiating confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rush, P.

    1988-01-01

    Radiation monitoring systems for operators handling radioactive wastes are described. These include a personnel monitoring system which is suitable for small groups (ie as few as 50) of personnel. The use of microelectronics enable facilities such as automatic personal dose recording with three accumulative registers and automatic reporting of exceeded dose limits. At a controlled entrance the user is identified with a personal identification number. Exit is then also monitored. The use of pocket dosimeters increase the flexibility of this system. In another system a 'rotary man lock' only allows exit from the radiation controlled zone when satisfactory radiation checks have been made. The radiation and security checks available with this system are described. A 'sack monitor' for low level wastes contained in plastic bags is illustrated. (U.K.)

  3. Breeding confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stout, T.A.E.

    2011-01-01

    You have undoubtedly registered that the title of my inaugural lecture is ambiguous; it can be interpreted in two different ways. This is no accident. I deliberately chose this doubleedged title because it neatly defines the multi-faceted nature of the chair to which I have been appointed; ‘Equine

  4. Confidence Matters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    China’s economy passed over a bumpy road last year. Influenced by the global economic crisis, China faces many uncertainties in 2009. Yao Jingyuan, Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, gave a speech at the 2009 China Mining Merger and Acquisition Forum at Tsinghua University on January 10 about the risks the country faces and the positive factors that still exist in China’s economic development. Excerpts follow.

  5. What does confidence mean to people who have had a stroke? A qualitative interview study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jane; Lincoln, Nadina Berrice; Preston, Jenny; Logan, Pip

    2014-11-01

    To explore the meaning of confidence to stroke patients after stroke in order to inform the development of a measurement tool. Qualitative interview study using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Ten stroke survivors were purposively selected from those participating in a multi-centre randomised trial of outdoor mobility rehabilitation. Interviews about confidence were conducted in participants' homes, audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. Six themes emerged from the analysis. These were loss of identity, fear, social confidence, role confidence, mastering skill and attitudes and beliefs. Loss of identity was particularly evident in the early stages of stroke recovery. Fear was a barrier to regaining confidence and was associated with avoidance behaviours. Lack of social confidence was a common problem which appeared difficult to resolve. Life roles motivated participants to re-engage in daily life activities. Personal attitudes and beliefs, combined with the attitudes of significant others, contributed to personal feelings of competence. This study provides a coherent definition of the meaning of confidence through the experiences of stroke survivors. Being successful in gradually re-engaging in activities, including social activities and life roles helped to establish a positive self-belief. The influence of others, such as family and friends reinforce self-beliefs. Confidence and self-efficacy appear to be a similar construct. However, participants in this study also identified a relationship between confidence and self-esteem. The findings indicate that all six themes need to be included in a confidence measure to encompass the meaning of confidence as described by participants with stroke. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Development and Evaluation of a Confidence-Weighting Computerized Adaptive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Yung-Chin; Ho, Rong-Guey; Chen, Li-Ju; Chou, Kun-Yi; Chen, Yan-Lin

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether the efficiency, precision, and validity of computerized adaptive testing (CAT) could be improved by assessing confidence differences in knowledge that examinees possessed. We proposed a novel polytomous CAT model called the confidence-weighting computerized adaptive testing (CWCAT), which combined a…

  7. The Impact of Incorporating Student Confidence Items into an Intelligent Tutor: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Charles; Heffernan, Neil; Ostrow, Korinn; Wang, Yutao

    2015-01-01

    For at least the last century researchers have advocated the use of student confidence as a form of educational assessment and the growth of online and mobile educational software has made the implementation of this measurement far easier. The following short paper discusses our first study of the dynamics of student confidence in an online math…

  8. Teaching Evolution to Students with Compromised Backgrounds & Lack of Confidence about Evolution--Is It Possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, Alexandria; Cotner, Sehoya; Moore, Randy

    2014-01-01

    Students regard evolutionary theory differently than science in general. Students' reported confidence in their ability to understand science in general (e.g., posing scientific questions, interpreting tables and graphs, and understanding the content of their biology course) significantly outweighed their confidence in understanding evolution. We…

  9. Non-Music Specialist Trainee Primary School Teachers' Confidence in Teaching Music in the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Frederick; Biasutti, Michele

    2008-01-01

    Prior research has revealed that non-music specialist trainee primary school teachers lack confidence in teaching music in spite of changes to teacher training and the introduction of music in the National Curriculum in England. The current study investigated the effects on non-music specialist trainee primary teachers' confidence to teach music…

  10. How Is Gender Self-Confidence Related to Subjective Well-Being?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Rose Marie

    2006-01-01

    This study of ethnically diverse participants explored the relationship of gender self-confidence to subjective well-being. The 2 components of gender self-confidence (gender self-definition and gender self-acceptance) were assessed using the Hoffman Gender Scale (R. M. Hoffman, 1996; R. M. Hoffman, L. D. Borders, & J. A. Hattie, 2000). The…

  11. Caregiver Confidence: Does It Predict Changes in Disability among Elderly Home Care Recipients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lydia W.; McLaughlin, Sara J.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the study: The primary aim of this investigation was to determine whether caregiver confidence in their care recipients' functional capabilities predicts changes in the performance of activities of daily living (ADL) among elderly home care recipients. A secondary aim was to explore how caregiver confidence and care recipient functional…

  12. Gender Role Conflict, Professional Role Confidence, and Intentional Persistence in Engineering Students in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xueyan; Wang, Xinhong; Zhang, Lin; Weidman, John C.

    2017-01-01

    In the current study, the relationship between gender role conflict, professional role confidence, and intentional persistence was examined using data from a survey of male and female Chinese engineering students. Intentional persistence was significantly associated with gender role conflict and professional role confidence; however, the pattern…

  13. The effect of in-training assessment on clinical confidence in postgraduate education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ringsted, Charlotte; Pallisgaard, Jane; Østergaard, Doris

    2004-01-01

    doctors' self-confidence in clinical performance before (in 2001) and 2 years after (in 2003) the introduction of an ITA programme. Respondents indicated confidence on a 155-item questionnaire related to performance of clinical skills and tasks reflecting broad aspects of competence. A total of 23...

  14. Measuring Confidence Levels of Male and Female Students in Open Access Enabling Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atherton, Mirella

    2015-01-01

    The study of confidence was undertaken at the University of Newcastle with students selecting science courses at two campuses. The students were enrolled in open access programs and aimed to gain access to undergraduate studies in various disciplines at University. The "third person effect" was used to measure the confidence levels of…

  15. Does Classroom Management Coursework Influence Pre-service Teachers' Perceived Preparedness or Confidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Sue; Stephenson, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    There has been conjecture that completing focused coursework units on classroom management during pre-service teacher preparation might lead to increased feelings of preparedness and confidence. This study reports the preparedness in managing specific problem behaviours, familiarity, and confidence in using management strategies and models of…

  16. Linking employee confidence to performance: a study of self-managing service teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de A.; Ruyter, de J.C.; Wetzels, M.G.M.

    2006-01-01

    The increasing implementation of self-managing teams (SMTs) in service delivery suggests the importance of developing confidence beliefs about a team's collective competence. This research examined causality in the linkage between employee confidence beliefs and performance for boundary-spanning

  17. Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

    2015-06-01

    Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. The Selective Cue Integration Framework: A Theory of Postidentification Witness Confidence Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charman, Steve D.; Carlucci, Marianna; Vallano, Jon; Gregory, Amy Hyman

    2010-01-01

    The current manuscript proposes a theory of how witnesses assess their confidence following a lineup identification, called the selective cue integration framework (SCIF). Drawing from past research on the postidentification feedback effect, the SCIF details a three-stage process of confidence assessment that is based largely on a…

  19. The Relationship between a Women's Leadership Development Program and Participant Self-Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Janelle Perron

    2009-01-01

    According to Lundeberg, Fox, and Punccohar (1994), the reason that there are fewer women in certain professions is because of a lack of self-confidence. In a review of the literature, they found studies reporting a lack of self-confidence in sixth-grade girls, high school students, and women in undergraduate and graduate school. In her work on…

  20. Seeking out Challenges to Develop L2 Self-Confidence: A Language Learner's Journey to Proficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwads, Emily; Roger, Peter Stewart

    2015-01-01

    As one constituent of second language (L2) motivation, L2 "self-­confidence" has been shown to be a significant predictor of language proficiency. More recently, L2 self-­confidence has been studied as part of the "willingness to communicate" (WTC) construct. Less is known, however, about the processes by which learners develop…

  1. A National Survey of Music Education Majors' Confidence in Teaching Improvisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhard, H. Christian, II.; Stringham, David A.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to investigate undergraduate music education majors' confidence in teaching improvisation, according to the NAfME (1994) K-12 Achievement Standards. Specific research questions were: 1) How confident are music education majors in implementing the 11 improvisation achievement standards for grades K-12? 2) How confident…

  2. Training and Confidence Level of Junior Anaesthetists in CPR- Experience in A Developing Country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desalu Ibironke

    2008-01-01

    There is low confidence among junior anaesthetists in Nigeria in performance of CPR, poor knowledge of ECG interpretation of cardiac arrest rhythm and little practice in defibrillation. The establishment of a Resuscitation council would ensure adequate and frequent training which would improve knowledge, boost confidence and result in better patient care.

  3. An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capraro, Mary Margaret

    This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

  4. The Effects of a Site-Based Mentoring Program on Teacher Confidence and Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, Kimberley G.

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation was designed to examine the effects of a site-based teacher mentoring program on teacher confidence and effectiveness in an elementary school in Florida. Based on preliminary data, there was a need for system organizational change to improve teacher confidence and performance with the district's Document Based Question (DBQ)…

  5. Measuring the Confidence of 8th Grade Taiwanese Students' Knowledge of Acids and Bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Tsai, Chun-Yen

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated whether gender differences were present on the confidence judgments made by 8th grade Taiwanese students on the accuracy of their responses to acid-base test items. A total of 147 (76 male, 71 female) students provided item-specific confidence judgments during a test of their knowledge of acids and bases. Using the…

  6. Knee Confidence as it Relates to Self-Reported and Objective Correlates of Knee Osteoarthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skou, Søren T; Rasmussen, Sten; Simonsen, Ole

    2015-01-01

    osteoarthritis (OA). Background Lack of knee confidence is a frequent symptom in patients with knee OA, but little is known of associations between knee confidence and other common correlates of knee OA. Methods Baseline data from 220 patients with knee OA were applied in ordinal regression analyses, with knee...... confidence, assessed using item Q3 of the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, as the dependent variable and self-reported (pain on walking, general health, fear of movement, self-efficacy, function, and previous serious injury) and objective measures (muscle strength, 20-m walk time.......21; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.34), and general health (OR = 0.024; 95% CI: 0.002, 0.259) explained 19% of the variance in knee confidence (Pcommon finding in individuals with knee OA. Pain on walking was confirmed as a correlate of knee confidence, whereas...

  7. Distribution of the product confidence limits for the indirect effect: Program PRODCLIN

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, David P.; Fritz, Matthew S.; Williams, Jason; Lockwood, Chondra M.

    2010-01-01

    This article describes a program, PRODCLIN (distribution of the PRODuct Confidence Limits for INdirect effects), written for SAS, SPSS, and R, that computes confidence limits for the product of two normal random variables. The program is important because it can be used to obtain more accurate confidence limits for the indirect effect, as demonstrated in several recent articles (MacKinnon, Lockwood, & Williams, 2004; Pituch, Whittaker, & Stapleton, 2005). Tests of the significance of and confidence limits for indirect effects based on the distribution of the product method have more accurate Type I error rates and more power than other, more commonly used tests. Values for the two paths involved in the indirect effect and their standard errors are entered in the PRODCLIN program, and distribution of the product confidence limits are computed. Several examples are used to illustrate the PRODCLIN program. The PRODCLIN programs in rich text format may be downloaded from www.psychonomic.org/archive. PMID:17958149

  8. Building confidence: an exploration of nurses undertaking a postgraduate biological science course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wissen, Kim; McBride-Henry, Karen

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to explore the impact of studying biological science at a postgraduate level and how this impacted on nursing practice. The term biological sciences in this research encompasses elements of physiology, genetics, biochemistry and pathophysiology. A qualitative research study was designed, that involved the dissemination of a pre- and post-course semi-structured questionnaire for a biological science course, as part of a Master of Nursing programme at a New Zealand University, thus exploring the impact of undertaking a postgraduate biological sciences course. The responses were analysed into themes, based on interpretive concepts. The primary themes revealed improvement in confidence as: confidence in communication, confidence in linking nursing theoretical knowledge to practice and confidence in clinical nursing knowledge. This study highlights the need to privilege clinically-derived nursing knowledge, and that confidence in this nursing knowledge and clinical practice can be instilled through employing the model of theory-guided practice.

  9. Breakaway technique training as a means of increasing confidence in managing aggression in neuroscience nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamont, Scott; Brunero, Scott; Bailey, Alanah; Woods, Karen

    2012-08-01

    The objective of this paper was to evaluate breakaway technique training with neuroscience nursing staff as a measure of increased confidence and safety in managing aggression. A quasi experimental design was used in a sample of neuroscience nursing staff (n=31), participating in 2×1h breakaway technique workshops. The workshops consisted of supervised skills training in safe breakaway techniques. A pre- and postintervention-matched questionnaire measuring confidence and safety around managing aggressive patients, and exposure to and confidence in dealing with breakaways, was self administered. Statistically significant increases in confidence and safety in working with aggressive patients, and confidence levels for safe breakaways were reported. Qualitative comments demonstrated a desire for ongoing skills workshops. This study provides early evidence of the importance of incorporating breakaway training into existing training programs which aim to minimise and manage aggression and violence in generalist settings.

  10. Self-confidence in financial analysis: a study of younger and older male professional analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, R L; Ellis, T S

    2001-06-01

    Measures of reported self-confidence in performing financial analysis by 59 professional male analysts, 31 born between 1946 and 1964 and 28 born between 1965 and 1976, were investigated and reported. Self-confidence in one's ability is important in the securities industry because it affects recommendations and decisions to buy, sell, and hold securities. The respondents analyzed a set of multiyear corporate financial statements and reported their self-confidence in six separate financial areas. Data from the 59 male financial analysts were tallied and analyzed using both univariate and multivariate statistical tests. Rated self-confidence was not significantly different for the younger and the older men. These results are not consistent with a similar prior study of female analysts in which younger women showed significantly higher self-confidence than older women.

  11. Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kłopocka, Aneta Maria

    2017-01-01

    Consumer confidence plays an important role in households' decision-making processes. This study investigates the effects of consumer confidence on household saving and borrowing behavior that are unsatisfactorily considered in previous discussions. The questions of interest are first, whether indexes of consumer confidence have any predictive power on their own for future household saving and borrowing rates, and second, whether they contain information about future household saving and borrowing rates aside from the information contained in other available indicators. In addition to aggregate confidence indicators, their components are used to provide more precise information. Overall, the multiple linear regression analysis (OLS technique) of Polish time-series data gives positive answers to both questions. This finding supports the recommendation of combining the strengths of objective indicators (such as economic fundamentals) and subjective indicators (such as consumer confidence) to improve household financial behavior forecasts.

  12. Decision time and confidence predict choosers' identification performance in photographic showups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagana, Anna; Sporer, Siegfried L.; Wixted, John T.

    2018-01-01

    In vast contrast to the multitude of lineup studies that report on the link between decision time, confidence, and identification accuracy, only a few studies looked at these associations for showups, with results varying widely across studies. We therefore set out to test the individual and combined value of decision time and post-decision confidence for diagnosing the accuracy of positive showup decisions using confidence-accuracy characteristic curves and Bayesian analyses. Three-hundred-eighty-four participants viewed a stimulus event and were subsequently presented with two showups which could be target-present or target-absent. As expected, we found a negative decision time-accuracy and a positive post-decision confidence-accuracy correlation for showup selections. Confidence-accuracy characteristic curves demonstrated the expected additive effect of combining both postdictors. Likewise, Bayesian analyses, taking into account all possible target-presence base rate values showed that fast and confident identification decisions were more diagnostic than slow or less confident decisions, with the combination of both being most diagnostic for postdicting accurate and inaccurate decisions. The postdictive value of decision time and post-decision confidence was higher when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was high compared to when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was low. The frequent use of showups in practice emphasizes the importance of these findings for court proceedings. Overall, these findings support the idea that courts should have most trust in showup identifications that were made fast and confidently, and least in showup identifications that were made slowly and with low confidence. PMID:29346394

  13. The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L

    2017-05-01

    The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).

  14. Search for high confidence AGN candidates and its counterparts in the Fermi-LAT unassociated sample using machine learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Einecke, Sabrina [Technical University Dortmund (Germany); Doert, Marlene [Ruhr-University Bochum (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    The third Fermi-LAT source catalog (3FGL) is the deepest all-sky survey in gamma-rays and comprises 3033 point sources. While for 2023 sources plausible associations have been found, 1010 remain unassociated. A search for active galactic nuclei (AGN) will help to reduce the number of unassociated sources, and will increase our knowledge of the population of gamma-ray emitting AGN. Several machine learning approaches applied to Fermi data have shown the capability of this method. The extension to multiwavelength data improves these studies, and at the same time offers the possibility to determine the most likely corresponding counterpart. As the 95% confidence region of the localization by the Fermi measurement is in the order of several arcminutes, generally multiple point sources at different wavelengths are located within this region and the association is ambiguous. To figure out the most likely counterpart, the associated sample is used to train machine learning classifiers as e.g. the random forest. Therefore, all possible combinations of the Fermi measurement and the measurements at a second wavelength are considered for a particular source. In this talk, the statistical model to obtain high confidence AGN counterpart candidates is described as well as the validation of the model to estimate the performance.

  15. Clinician perceptions of personal safety and confidence to manage inpatient aggression in a forensic psychiatric setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T; Daffern, M

    2006-02-01

    Inpatient mental health clinicians need to feel safe in the workplace. They also require confidence in their ability to work with aggressive patients, allowing the provision of therapeutic care while protecting themselves and other patients from psychological and physical harm. The authors initiated this study with the predetermined belief that a comprehensive and integrated organizational approach to inpatient aggression was required to support clinicians and that this approach increased confidence and staff perceptions of personal safety. To assess perceptions of personal safety and confidence, clinicians in a forensic psychiatric hospital were surveyed using an adapted version of the Confidence in Coping With Patient Aggression Instrument. In this study clinicians reported the hospital as safe. They reported confidence in their work with aggressive patients. The factors that most impacted on clinicians' confidence to manage aggression were colleagues' knowledge, experience and skill, management of aggression training, use of prevention and intervention strategies, teamwork and the staff profile. These results are considered with reference to an expanding literature on inpatient aggression. It is concluded that organizational resources, policies and frameworks support clinician perceptions of safety and confidence to manage inpatient aggression. However, how these are valued by clinicians and translated into practice at unit level needs ongoing attention.

  16. Errors and Predictors of Confidence in Condom Use amongst Young Australians Attending a Music Festival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Karina M; Brieger, Daniel G; De Silva, Sukhita H; Pfister, Benjamin F; Youlden, Daniel J; John-Leader, Franklin; Pit, Sabrina W

    2016-01-01

    Objectives . To determine the confidence and ability to use condoms correctly and consistently and the predictors of confidence in young Australians attending a festival. Methods . 288 young people aged 18 to 29 attending a mixed-genre music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, self-reported confidence using condoms, ability to use condoms, and issues experienced when using condoms in the past 12 months. Results . Self-reported confidence using condoms was high (77%). Multivariate analyses showed confidence was associated with being male ( P < 0.001) and having had five or more lifetime sexual partners ( P = 0.038). Reading packet instructions was associated with increased condom use confidence ( P = 0.011). Amongst participants who had used a condom in the last year, 37% had experienced the condom breaking and 48% had experienced the condom slipping off during intercourse and 51% when withdrawing the penis after sex. Conclusion . This population of young people are experiencing high rates of condom failures and are using them inconsistently or incorrectly, demonstrating the need to improve attitudes, behaviour, and knowledge about correct and consistent condom usage. There is a need to empower young Australians, particularly females, with knowledge and confidence in order to improve condom use self-efficacy.

  17. Confidence and clinical judgement in community nurses managing venous leg ulceration - A judgement analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adderley, Una J; Thompson, Carl

    2017-11-01

    The variation in the management of venous leg ulceration in the UK is partly attributable to an uncertain clinical environment but the quality of judgements is influenced by the how well nurses' confidence and accuracy are aligned. To assess UK community nurses' confidence in the accuracy of their diagnostic judgements and treatment choices when managing venous leg ulceration. Judgement Analysis. UK community and primary care nursing services. 18 community non-specialist nurses working in district (home) nursing teams and general practitioner services and 18 community tissue viability specialist nurses. Using judgement analysis methods, 18 community non-specialist nurses and 18 community tissue viability specialist nurses made diagnoses and treatment judgements about compression therapy for 110 clinical scenarios and indicated their confidence for each judgement. An expert panel made consensus judgements for the same scenarios and these judgements were used as a standard against which to compare the participants. Confidence analysis was used to assess the nurses' confidence about their diagnostic judgements and treatment choices. Despite being very experienced, both non-specialist nurses' and specialist tissue viability nurses' levels of confidence were not well calibrated with their levels of accuracy. The results of this study are important as errors resulting from both over and under-confidence at the diagnostic phase of management may influence treatment choices, and thus increase the chances of treatment error. Copyright © 2017 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Validation of self - confidence scale for clean urinary intermittent self - catheterization for patients and health - caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biaziolo, Cintia Fernandes Baccarin; Mazzo, Alessandra; Martins, José Carlos Amado; Jorge, Beatriz Maria; Batista, Rui Carlos Negrão; Tucci, Silvio Júnior

    2017-01-01

    To validate a measurement instrument for clean intermittent self-catheterization for patients and health-caregivers. Methodological study of instrument validation performed at a Rehabilitation Center in a University hospital for patients submitted to clean intermittent self-catheterization and their health-caregivers. Following ethical criteria, data were collected during interview with nurse staff using a Likert question form containing 16 items with 5 points each: "no confidence"=1, "little confidence"=2, "confident"=3, "very confident"=4 and "completely confident"=5. Questionnaire called "Self- Confident Scale for Clean Intermittent Self-catheterization" (SCSCISC) was constructed based on literature and previously validated (appearance and content). The instrument was validated by 122 patients and 119 health-caregivers, in a proportion of 15:1. It was observed a good linear association and sample adequacy KMO 0.931 and X2=2881.63, p<0.001. Anti-image matrix showed high values at diagonal suggesting inclusion of all factors. Screen plot analysis showed a suggestion of items maintenance in a single set. It was observed high correlation of all items with the total, alpha-Cronbach 0.944. The same results were obtained in subsamples of patients and health-caregivers. The instrument showed good psychometric adequacy corroborating its use for evaluation of self-confidence during clean intermittent self-catheterization. Copyright® by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

  19. The relationship between fundamental movement skill proficiency and physical self-confidence among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrane, Bronagh; Belton, Sarahjane; Powell, Danielle; Issartel, Johann

    2017-09-01

    This study aims to assess fundamental movement skill (FMS) proficiency, physical self-confidence levels, and the relationship between these variables and gender differences among adolescents. Three hundred and ninety five adolescents aged 13.78 years (SD = ±1.2) from 20 schools were involved in this study. The Test of Gross Motor Development-2nd Edition (TGMD), TGMD-2 and Victorian Skills Manual were used to assess 15 FMS. Participants' physical self-confidence was also assessed using a valid skill-specific scale. A significant correlation was observed between FMS proficiency and physical self-confidence for females only (r = 0.305, P < 0.001). Males rated themselves as having significantly higher physical self-confidence levels than females (P = 0.001). Males scored significantly higher than females in FMS proficiency (P < 0.05), and the lowest physical self-confidence group were significantly less proficient at FMS than the medium (P < 0.001) and high physical self-confidence groups (P < 0.05). This information not only highlights those in need of assistance to develop their FMS but will also facilitate in the development of an intervention which aims to improve physical self-confidence and FMS proficiency.

  20. Evidence for a confidence-accuracy relationship in memory for same- and cross-race faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thao B; Pezdek, Kathy; Wixted, John T

    2017-12-01

    Discrimination accuracy is usually higher for same- than for cross-race faces, a phenomenon known as the cross-race effect (CRE). According to prior research, the CRE occurs because memories for same- and cross-race faces rely on qualitatively different processes. However, according to a continuous dual-process model of recognition memory, memories that rely on qualitatively different processes do not differ in recognition accuracy when confidence is equated. Thus, although there are differences in overall same- and cross-race discrimination accuracy, confidence-specific accuracy (i.e., recognition accuracy at a particular level of confidence) may not differ. We analysed datasets from four recognition memory studies on same- and cross-race faces to test this hypothesis. Confidence ratings reliably predicted recognition accuracy when performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but not when performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Furthermore, at each level of confidence, confidence-specific accuracy for same- and cross-race faces did not significantly differ when overall performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but significantly differed when overall performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Thus, under certain conditions, high-confidence same-race and cross-race identifications may be equally reliable.

  1. Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador

    2014-05-01

    In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Elisabeth; Fecher, Fabienne; Meloni, Remo; van Lerberghe, Wim

    2018-05-29

    Many countries rely on standard recipes for accelerating progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). With limited generalizable empirical evidence, expert confidence and consensus plays a major role in shaping country policy choices. This article presents an exploratory attempt conducted between April and September 2016 to measure confidence and consensus among a panel of global health experts in terms of the effectiveness and feasibility of a number of policy options commonly proposed for achieving UHC in low- and middle-income countries, such as fee exemptions for certain groups of people, ring-fenced domestic health budgets, and public-private partnerships. To ensure a relative homogeneity of contexts, we focused on French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa. We initially used the Delphi method to arrive at expert consensus, but since no consensus emerged after 2 rounds, we adjusted our approach to a statistical analysis of the results from our questionnaire by measuring the degree of consensus on each policy option through 100 (signifying total consensus) minus the size of the interquartile range of the individual scores. Seventeen global health experts from various backgrounds, but with at least 20 years' experience in the broad region, participated in the 2 rounds of the study. The results provide an initial "mapping" of the opinions of a group of experts and suggest interesting lessons. For the 18 policy options proposed, consensus emerged only on strengthening the supply of quality primary health care services (judged as being effective with a confidence score of 79 and consensus score of 90), and on fee exemptions for the poorest (judged as being fairly easy to implement with a confidence score of 66 and consensus score of 85). For none of the 18 common policy options was there consensus on both potential effectiveness and feasibility, with very diverging opinions concerning 5 policy options. The lack of confidence and consensus within the panel seems to

  3. Experiential Education Builds Student Self-Confidence in Delivering Medication Therapy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Parker

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To determine the impact of advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPE on student self-confidence related to medication therapy management (MTM, fourth-year pharmacy students were surveyed pre/post APPE to: identify exposure to MTM learning opportunities, assess knowledge of the MTM core components, and assess self-confidence performing MTM services. An anonymous electronic questionnaire administered pre/post APPE captured demographics, factors predicted to impact student self-confidence (Grade point average (GPA, work experience, exposure to MTM learning opportunities, MTM knowledge and self-confidence conducting MTM using a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Not at all Confident; 5 = Extremely Confident. Sixty-two students (26% response rate responded to the pre-APPE questionnaire and n = 44 (18% to the post-APPE. Over 90% demonstrated MTM knowledge and 68.2% completed MTM learning activities. APPE experiences significantly improved students’ overall self-confidence (pre-APPE = 3.27 (0.85 SD, post-APPE = 4.02 (0.88, p < 0.001. Students engaging in MTM learning opportunities had higher self-confidence post-APPE (4.20 (0.71 vs. those not reporting MTM learning opportunities (3.64 (1.08, p = 0.05. Post-APPE, fewer students reported MTM was patient-centric or anticipated engaging in MTM post-graduation. APPE learning opportunities increased student self-confidence to provide MTM services. However, the reduction in anticipated engagement in MTM post-graduation and reduction in sensing the patient-centric nature of MTM practice, may reveal a gap between practice expectations and reality.

  4. Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

    2012-11-01

    Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  5. Teachers' confidence in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality in South African and Tanzanian schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helleve, Arnfinn; Flisher, Alan J; Onya, Hans; Kaaya, Sylvia; Mukoma, Wanjiru; Swai, Caroline; Klepp, Knut-Inge

    2009-06-01

    This study aimed to investigate how confident and comfortable teachers at Tanzanian and South African urban and rural schools are in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. It also aimed at identifying factors associated with teacher confidence and investigated how reported confidence was associated with the implementation of educational programmes on HIV/AIDS and sexuality. A survey was conducted among South African grade 8 and 9 Life Orientation teachers, and among science teachers for grade 5 to 7 in public primary schools in Tanzania. Teachers' confidence levels were measured on a four-item scale (0-3). A total number of 266 teachers participated in a survey in 86 schools in South Africa and Tanzania. Overall, teachers report to be rather confident in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Tanzanian teachers reported higher levels of confidence then did their South Africa colleagues (2.1 vs. 1.8; p teaching was significantly associated with the numbers of years teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality, formal training in these subjects, experience in discussing the topics with others, school policy and priority given to teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality at school. Finally, confidence in teaching remained positively associated with self-reported successful implementation of school-based programmes after adjusting for gender, age, religion and numbers of years teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Across urban and rural sites in South Africa and Tanzania teachers reported to be fairly confident in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Further strengthening of their confidence levels could, however, be an important measure for improving the implementation of such programmes.

  6. Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

    2012-08-01

    Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

  7. Building confident organizations by filling buckets, building infrastructures, and shining the flashlight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerfoot, Karlene

    2005-04-01

    Leaders have the ability to create confidence or fear in the organization. Kanter (2004) writes that confidence is the "...sweet spot between arrogance and despair" (p. 8). Overconfidence causes people to overshoot, and to assume they are invulnerable. Underconfidence is just as harmful because it leads to underinvesting in people, under-innovating, and eventually leads to the disenfranchisement of staff and poor morale. If we take Kanter's advice, we will build an infrastructure that creates confidence in everyone and the organization. But we will not stop there. We will focus "flashlights" on people and activities that are inspiring to others.

  8. Regions Matter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Keld; Masciarelli, Francesca; Prencipe, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    capital at the regional level, with a large-scale data set of the innovative activities of a representative sample of 2,413 Italian manufacturing firms from 21 regions, and controlling for a large set of firm and regional characteristics, we find that being located in a region characterized by a high...

  9. Dental Hygiene Students' Attitudes and Self-confidence in the Care of the Disabled.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruythuysen, R. J. M.

    1987-01-01

    A study measured the influence of treating disabled persons during the practical training period on the dental hygiene student's attitude toward the disabled, and studied whether attitude and self-confidence are related to certain student characteristics. (MSE)

  10. Confidence in delegation and leadership of registered nurses in long-term-care hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jungmin; Kim, Miyoung; Shin, Juhhyun

    2016-07-01

    Effective delegation improves job satisfaction, responsibility, productivity and development. The ageing population demands more nurses in long-term-care hospitals. Delegation and leadership promote cooperation among nursing staff. However, little research describes nursing delegation and leadership style. We investigated the relationship between registered nurses' delegation confidence and leadership in Korean long-term-care hospitals. Our descriptive correlational design sampled 199 registered nurses from 13 long-term-care hospitals in Korea. Instruments were the Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale and Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire. Confidence in delegation significantly aligned with current-unit clinical experience, length of total clinical-nursing experience, delegation-training experience and leadership. Transformational leadership was the most statistically significant factor influencing delegation confidence. When effective delegation integrates with efficient leadership, staff can deliver optimal care to long-term-care patients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Effect of CALIPSO Cloud Aerosol Discrimination (CAD) Confidence Levels on Observations of Aerosol Properties near Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weidong; Marshak, Alexander; Varnai, Tamas; Liu, Zhaoyan

    2012-01-01

    CALIPSO aerosol backscatter enhancement in the transition zone between clouds and clear sky areas is revisited with particular attention to effects of data selection based on the confidence level of cloud-aerosol discrimination (CAD). The results show that backscatter behavior in the transition zone strongly depends on the CAD confidence level. Higher confidence level data has a flatter backscatter far away from clouds and a much sharper increase near clouds (within 4 km), thus a smaller transition zone. For high confidence level data it is shown that the overall backscatter enhancement is more pronounced for small clear-air segments and horizontally larger clouds. The results suggest that data selection based on CAD reduces the possible effects of cloud contamination when studying aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds.

  12. CLUSTERING OF THE COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX AND EVALUATING WITH HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seda BAĞDATLI KALKAN

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Consumer confidence index is a national indicator that suggest about current and future expectations of the economic conditions. With consumer confidence index, it is aimed to determine the trends and expectations of consumers according to their general economic situation, employment opportunities, their financial situations and developments in the markets. Another parameter is also the Human Development Index (HDI. This index is an indicator that examines the development of countries both economically and socially. Countries are sorted by these two indices and are considered as basic parameters in international platforms. The purpose of this study is to group the selected countries according to the consumer confidence index and reveal the features of the groups and then determine the position of the grouped countries with the Human Development Index. According to the results of cluster analysis, it is shown that India, China, Sweden and USA have the highest total consumer confidence index, employment, expectation and investment index

  13. AFSC/RACE/GAP/Orr: Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands groundfish surveys Identification Confidence

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report includes an identification confidence matrix for all fishes and invertebrates identified from the GOA and AI surveys from 1980 through 2011. The matrix...

  14. Bootstrap-based confidence estimation in PCA and multivariate statistical process control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babamoradi, Hamid

    be used to detect outliers in the data since the outliers can distort the bootstrap estimates. Bootstrap-based confidence limits were suggested as alternative to the asymptotic limits for control charts and contribution plots in MSPC (Paper II). The results showed that in case of the Q-statistic......Traditional/Asymptotic confidence estimation has limited applicability since it needs statistical theories to estimate the confidences, which are not available for all indicators/parameters. Furthermore, in case the theories are available for a specific indicator/parameter, the theories are based....... The goal was to improve process monitoring by improving the quality of MSPC charts and contribution plots. Bootstrapping algorithm to build confidence limits was illustrated in a case study format (Paper I). The main steps in the algorithm were discussed where a set of sensible choices (plus...

  15. Concurrent predictors of dysfunctional parenting and maternal confidence: implications for parenting interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morawska, A; Sanders, M R

    2007-11-01

    The often intense nature of the conflict between parents and their toddlers requires better understanding of what happens during this stage of development and how difficulties can be prevented from escalating in the future. Clarification of the nature of family and parenting factors related to toddler behaviour allows better capacity for intervention development and tailoring to individual families. A total of 126 mothers of toddlers completed a self-report assessment battery, examining child behaviour, parenting style and confidence, as well as broader family adjustment measures. The study found that maternal confidence and dysfunctional parenting were interrelated and were also predicted best by parenting variables, in contrast to socio-demographic and child variables. Maternal confidence also mediated the relationships between family income and toddler behaviour. Parenting style and confidence are important modifiable factors to target in parenting interventions. The implications for the development, implementation and delivery of parenting interventions are discussed.

  16. AFSC/RACE/GAP/Orr: Bering Sea Slope groundfish surveys Identification Confidence

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report includes an identification confidence matrix for all fishes and invertebrates identified from the EBS slope triennial and biennial surveys from 1976...

  17. Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Leif; Box, Neil; Carter, Katrina; DiFilippo, Denise; Harrington, Sean; Jackson, David; Lutomski, Michael

    2012-01-01

    There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.

  18. Enhancing student engagement to positively impact mathematics anxiety, confidence and achievement for interdisciplinary science subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everingham, Yvette L.; Gyuris, Emma; Connolly, Sean R.

    2017-11-01

    Contemporary science educators must equip their students with the knowledge and practical know-how to connect multiple disciplines like mathematics, computing and the natural sciences to gain a richer and deeper understanding of a scientific problem. However, many biology and earth science students are prejudiced against mathematics due to negative emotions like high mathematical anxiety and low mathematical confidence. Here, we present a theoretical framework that investigates linkages between student engagement, mathematical anxiety, mathematical confidence, student achievement and subject mastery. We implement this framework in a large, first-year interdisciplinary science subject and monitor its impact over several years from 2010 to 2015. The implementation of the framework coincided with an easing of anxiety and enhanced confidence, as well as higher student satisfaction, retention and achievement. The framework offers interdisciplinary science educators greater flexibility and confidence in their approach to designing and delivering subjects that rely on mathematical concepts and practices.

  19. Assessing confidence in management adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, J M; Julius, S H; Weaver, C P

    2012-01-01

    A number of options are available for adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and relocating organisms. The results showed that the expert teams had the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic stresses. Confidence in other approaches was lower because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for management adaptations to climate change. (letter)

  20. The confidence of speech-language pathology students regarding communicating with people with aphasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Aphasia is an acquired language disorder that can present a significant barrier to patient involvement in healthcare decisions. Speech-language pathologists (SLPs) are viewed as experts in the field of communication. However, many SLP students do not receive practical training in techniques to communicate with people with aphasia (PWA) until they encounter PWA during clinical education placements. Methods This study investigated the confidence and knowledge of SLP students in communicating with PWA prior to clinical placements using a customised questionnaire. Confidence in communicating with people with aphasia was assessed using a 100-point visual analogue scale. Linear, and logistic, regressions were used to examine the association between confidence and age, as well as confidence and course type (graduate-entry masters or undergraduate), respectively. Knowledge of strategies to assist communication with PWA was examined by asking respondents to list specific strategies that could assist communication with PWA. Results SLP students were not confident with the prospect of communicating with PWA; reporting a median 29-points (inter-quartile range 17–47) on the visual analogue confidence scale. Only, four (8.2%) of respondents rated their confidence greater than 55 (out of 100). Regression analyses indicated no relationship existed between confidence and students‘ age (p = 0.31, r-squared = 0.02), or confidence and course type (p = 0.22, pseudo r-squared = 0.03). Students displayed limited knowledge about communication strategies. Thematic analysis of strategies revealed four overarching themes; Physical, Verbal Communication, Visual Information and Environmental Changes. While most students identified potential use of resources (such as images and written information), fewer students identified strategies to alter their verbal communication (such as reduced speech rate). Conclusions SLP students who had received aphasia related

  1. The confidence of speech-language pathology students regarding communicating with people with aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finch, Emma; Fleming, Jennifer; Brown, Kyla; Lethlean, Jennifer; Cameron, Ashley; McPhail, Steven M

    2013-06-27

    Aphasia is an acquired language disorder that can present a significant barrier to patient involvement in healthcare decisions. Speech-language pathologists (SLPs) are viewed as experts in the field of communication. However, many SLP students do not receive practical training in techniques to communicate with people with aphasia (PWA) until they encounter PWA during clinical education placements. This study investigated the confidence and knowledge of SLP students in communicating with PWA prior to clinical placements using a customised questionnaire. Confidence in communicating with people with aphasia was assessed using a 100-point visual analogue scale. Linear, and logistic, regressions were used to examine the association between confidence and age, as well as confidence and course type (graduate-entry masters or undergraduate), respectively. Knowledge of strategies to assist communication with PWA was examined by asking respondents to list specific strategies that could assist communication with PWA. SLP students were not confident with the prospect of communicating with PWA; reporting a median 29-points (inter-quartile range 17-47) on the visual analogue confidence scale. Only, four (8.2%) of respondents rated their confidence greater than 55 (out of 100). Regression analyses indicated no relationship existed between confidence and students' age (p = 0.31, r-squared = 0.02), or confidence and course type (p = 0.22, pseudo r-squared = 0.03). Students displayed limited knowledge about communication strategies. Thematic analysis of strategies revealed four overarching themes; Physical, Verbal Communication, Visual Information and Environmental Changes. While most students identified potential use of resources (such as images and written information), fewer students identified strategies to alter their verbal communication (such as reduced speech rate). SLP students who had received aphasia related theoretical coursework, but not commenced clinical placements

  2. Women's empowerment in India: assessment of women's confidence before and after training as a lay provider

    OpenAIRE

    Megan Storm; Alan Xi; Ayesha Khan

    2018-01-01

    Background: Gender is the main social determinant of health in India and affects women's health outcomes even before birth. As women mature into adulthood, lack of education and empowerment increases health inequities, acting as a barrier to seeking medical care and to making medical choices. Although the process of women's empowerment is complex to measure, one indicator is confidence in ability. We sought to increase the confidence of rural Indian women in their abilities by training them a...

  3. Confidence and trust: empirical investigations for the Netherlands and the financial sector

    OpenAIRE

    Mosch, Robert; Prast, Henriëtte

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the state of confidence and trust in the Netherlands, with special attention to the financial sector. An attempt has been made to identify the factors that determine individual trust and confidence and to uncover connections between the various variables. Based on surveys over the period 2003-2006, the data show that interpersonal trust in the Netherlands - the extent to which the Dutch trust each other - is high from both an international and an historical perspective. Peo...

  4. The consequence of motivation and linguistic self-confidence in relation to pupils’ oral interaction

    OpenAIRE

    Molberg, Hans-Kristian Kiil

    2010-01-01

    This thesis discusses which consequences motivation and linguistic self-confidence have on pupils’ oral interaction in the English classroom. I bring up aspects such as the importance of oral interaction and pupils’ willingness to communicate, as well as theory regarding motivation and linguistic self-confidence. In order to investigate this, I used a qualitative approach and conducted a semi-structured interview with six 10th graders and their English teacher. My findings show that moti...

  5. Time-varying associations between confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana during treatment among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Tammy; Maisto, Stephen A

    2016-06-01

    An important goal of addictions treatment is to develop a positive association between high levels of confidence and motivation to abstain from substance use. This study modeled the time-varying association between confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana use among youth in treatment, and the time-varying effect of pre-treatment covariates (marijuana abstinence goal and perceived peer marijuana use) on motivation to abstain. 150 adolescents (75% male, 83% White) in community-based intensive outpatient treatment in Pennsylvania completed a pre-treatment assessment of abstinence goal, perceived peer marijuana use, and motivation and confidence to abstain from marijuana. Ratings of motivation and confidence to abstain also were collected after each session. A time-varying effect model (TVEM) was used to characterize changes in the association between confidence and motivation to abstain (lagged), and included covariates representing pre-treatment abstinence goal and perceived peer marijuana use. Confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana generally increased during treatment. The association between confidence and motivation strengthened across sessions 1-4, and was maintained through later sessions. Pre-treatment abstinence goal had an early time-limited effect (through session 6) on motivation to abstain. Pre-treatment perception of peer marijuana use had a significant effect on motivation to abstain only at session 2. Early treatment sessions represent a critical period during which the association between confidence and motivation to abstain generally increased. The time-limited effects of pre-treatment characteristics suggest the importance of early sessions in addressing abstinence goal and peer substance use that may impact motivation to abstain from marijuana. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Eyewitness confidence in simultaneous and sequential lineups: a criterion shift account for sequential mistaken identification overconfidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobolyi, David G; Dodson, Chad S

    2013-12-01

    Confidence judgments for eyewitness identifications play an integral role in determining guilt during legal proceedings. Past research has shown that confidence in positive identifications is strongly associated with accuracy. Using a standard lineup recognition paradigm, we investigated accuracy using signal detection and ROC analyses, along with the tendency to choose a face with both simultaneous and sequential lineups. We replicated past findings of reduced rates of choosing with sequential as compared to simultaneous lineups, but notably found an accuracy advantage in favor of simultaneous lineups. Moreover, our analysis of the confidence-accuracy relationship revealed two key findings. First, we observed a sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect: despite an overall reduction in false alarms, confidence for false alarms that did occur was higher with sequential lineups than with simultaneous lineups, with no differences in confidence for correct identifications. This sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect is an expected byproduct of the use of a more conservative identification criterion with sequential than with simultaneous lineups. Second, we found a steady drop in confidence for mistaken identifications (i.e., foil identifications and false alarms) from the first to the last face in sequential lineups, whereas confidence in and accuracy of correct identifications remained relatively stable. Overall, we observed that sequential lineups are both less accurate and produce higher confidence false identifications than do simultaneous lineups. Given the increasing prominence of sequential lineups in our legal system, our data argue for increased scrutiny and possibly a wholesale reevaluation of this lineup format. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. Determination of confidence limits for experiments with low numbers of counts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraft, R.P.; Burrows, D.N.; Nousek, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    Two different methods, classical and Bayesian, for determining confidence intervals involving Poisson-distributed data are compared. Particular consideration is given to cases where the number of counts observed is small and is comparable to the mean number of background counts. Reasons for preferring the Bayesian over the classical method are given. Tables of confidence limits calculated by the Bayesian method are provided for quick reference. 12 refs

  8. Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa B Gilkey

    Full Text Available To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents.We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR, varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status.A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15% or delay (27%. Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63 as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86. Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68, varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66, and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42.Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

  9. An analysis of confidence limit calculations used in AAPM Task Group No. 119

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knill, Cory; Snyder, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The report issued by AAPM Task Group No. 119 outlined a procedure for evaluating the effectiveness of IMRT commissioning. The procedure involves measuring gamma pass-rate indices for IMRT plans of standard phantoms and determining if the results fall within a confidence limit set by assuming normally distributed data. As stated in the TG report, the assumption of normally distributed gamma pass rates is a convenient approximation for commissioning purposes, but may not accurately describe the data. Here the authors attempt to better describe gamma pass-rate data by fitting it to different distributions. The authors then calculate updated confidence limits using those distributions and compare them to those derived using TG No. 119 method. Methods: Gamma pass-rate data from 111 head and neck patients are fitted using the TG No. 119 normal distribution, a truncated normal distribution, and a Weibull distribution. Confidence limits to 95% are calculated for each and compared. A more general analysis of the expected differences between the TG No. 119 method of determining confidence limits and a more time-consuming curve fitting method is performed. Results: The TG No. 119 standard normal distribution does not fit the measured data. However, due to the small range of measured data points, the inaccuracy of the fit has only a small effect on the final value of the confidence limits. The confidence limits for the 111 patient plans are within 0.1% of each other for all distributions. The maximum expected difference in confidence limits, calculated using TG No. 119's approximation and a truncated distribution, is 1.2%. Conclusions: A three-parameter Weibull probability distribution more accurately fits the clinical gamma index pass-rate data than the normal distribution adopted by TG No. 119. However, the sensitivity of the confidence limit on distribution fit is low outside of exceptional circumstances.

  10. Provider confidence in opioid prescribing and chronic pain management: results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Amy CS; Moman, Rajat N; Moeschler, Susan M; Eldrige, Jason S; Hooten, W Michael

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Many providers report lack of confidence in managing patients with chronic pain. Thus, the primary aim of this study was to investigate the associations of provider confidence in managing chronic pain with their practice behaviors and demographics. Materials and methods The primary outcome measure was the results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey, which was administered to clinicians attending a pain-focused continuing medical education conference. Nonparametric correlations were assessed using Spearman’s rho. Results Of the respondents, 55.0% were women, 92.8% were white, and 56.5% were physicians. Primary care providers accounted for 56.5% of the total respondents. The majority of respondents (60.8%) did not feel confident managing patients with chronic pain. Provider confidence in managing chronic pain was positively correlated with 1) following an opioid therapy protocol (P=0.001), 2) the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse (P=0.006), and 3) using a consistent practice-based approach to improve their comfort level with prescribing opioids (Pcorrelated with the perception that treating pain patients was a “problem in my practice” (P=0.005). Conclusion In this study, the majority of providers did not feel confident managing chronic pain. However, provider confidence was associated with a protocolized and consistent practice-based approach toward managing opioids and the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse. Future studies should investigate whether provider confidence is associated with measurable competence in managing chronic pain and explore approaches to enhance appropriate levels of confidence in caring for patients with chronic pain. PMID:28652805

  11. Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    2005-01-01

    The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....

  12. Does self-confidence link to motivation? A study in field hockey athletes

    OpenAIRE

    Sari, İhsan; Ekici, Sümmani; Soyer, Fikret; Eskiler, Ersin

    2015-01-01

    Previous research indicated some evidence of a positive relationship between motivation and self-efficacy beliefs/perceived competence/self-perceptions. Therefore, the relationship between self-confidence and motivation was investigated in sport context in this study. Participants of this study were 111 field hockey athletes. Sport Motivation Scale (Pelletier et al., 1995) and Self-confidence Scales (Tokinan, 2008) were used for data collection. SPSS.17 package program was used to analyse the...

  13. Consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in internet payments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franc Bračun

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Performing payment transactions over the Internet is becoming increasingly important. Whenever one interacts with others, he or she faces the problem of uncertainty because in interacting with others, one makes him or herself vulnerable, i.e. one can be betrayed. Thus, perceived risk and confidence are of fundamental importance in electronic payment transactions. A higher risk leads to greater hesitance about entering into a business relationship with a high degree of uncertainty; and therefore, to an increased need for confidence. This paper has two objectives. First, it aims to introduce and test a theoretical model that predicts consumer and merchant acceptance of the Internet payment solution by explaining the complex set of relationships among the key factors influencing confidence in electronic payment transactions. Second, the paper attempts to shed light on the complex interrelationship among confidence, control and perceived risk. An empirical study was conducted to test the proposed model using data from consumers and merchants in Slovenia. The results show how perceived risk dimensions and post-transaction control influence consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in electronic payment transactions, and the impact of confidence on the adoption of mass-market on-line payment solutions.

  14. Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/18: Maritime Cooperation Between India and Pakistan: Building Confidence at Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SIDDIQA-AGHA,AYESHA

    2000-11-01

    This paper discusses ways in which the navies of both India and Pakistan can cooperate on issues of maritime and naval significance. Although the militaries and navies of the two countries have traditionally seen each other as rivals, international economic developments make cooperation imperative. South Asia requires an approach that can alter the existing hostile images and perceptions. This can be achieved through developing an incremental approach towards confidence building that would allow consistency and help build confidence gradually. The aim is to make confidence building a sustainable activity that would help transform hostile images and build cooperative and nonhostile relationships. This paper proposes a five-step model to suggest what the two navies can do jointly to build confidence, with the ultimate goal of naval arms control. The steps include (1) the Signaling Stage to initiate communication between the two navies, (2) the Warming-Up Stage to build confidence through nonmilitary joint ventures, (3) the Handshake Stage to build confidence between the two navies through military joint ventures, (4) the Problem-Solving Stage to resolve outstanding disputes, and (5) the Final Nod Stage to initiate naval arms control. This model would employ communication, navigation, and remote sensing technologies to achieve success.

  15. Confidence Limits for the Indirect Effect: Distribution of the Product and Resampling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, David P.; Lockwood, Chondra M.; Williams, Jason

    2010-01-01

    The most commonly used method to test an indirect effect is to divide the estimate of the indirect effect by its standard error and compare the resulting z statistic with a critical value from the standard normal distribution. Confidence limits for the indirect effect are also typically based on critical values from the standard normal distribution. This article uses a simulation study to demonstrate that confidence limits are imbalanced because the distribution of the indirect effect is normal only in special cases. Two alternatives for improving the performance of confidence limits for the indirect effect are evaluated: (a) a method based on the distribution of the product of two normal random variables, and (b) resampling methods. In Study 1, confidence limits based on the distribution of the product are more accurate than methods based on an assumed normal distribution but confidence limits are still imbalanced. Study 2 demonstrates that more accurate confidence limits are obtained using resampling methods, with the bias-corrected bootstrap the best method overall. PMID:20157642

  16. THE USE OF SKIT TECHNIQUE TO INCREASE STUDENTS’ SELF-CONFIDENCE IN SPEAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dini Deswarni

    2017-12-01

    The study aimed to know the use of Skit Technique to increase students’ self-confidence in speaking English. Speaking is one of important skills in English. Self-Confidence is really need to speak in English. Someone needs self-confidence to express their idea and their feelings in a foreign language especially in English. Not all of the people have good self-confidence in using English to express or to share their idea and their opinion. The aim of this study is to know whether the Skit Technique can increase self- confidence in speaking English. In other words Skit Technique can help to increase self-confidence in speaking English. The design of this research is experiment. The population of the research is 46 students at the eight grade students of MTs Darul Ihsan Duri. The sample technique is random sampling. From the data, it can be seen that Ttable < Tvalue (2.101 < 12.466. It means Ha is accepted and Skit Technique done in experiment class.

  17. Confidence with and Barriers to Serious Illness Communication: A National Survey of Hospitalists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Leah B; Greenwald, Jeff; Caponi, Bartho; Doshi, Ami; Epstein, Howard; Frank, Jeff; Lindenberger, Elizabeth; Marzano, Nick; Mills, Lynnea M; Razzak, Rab; Risser, James; Anderson, Wendy G

    2017-09-01

    To describe the concerns, confidence, and barriers of practicing hospitalists around serious illness communication. Hospitalist physicians are optimally positioned to provide primary palliative care, yet their experiences in serious illness communication are not well described. Web-based survey, conducted in May 2016. The survey link was distributed via email to 4000 members of the Society of Hospital Medicine. The 39-item survey assessed frequency of concerns about serious illness communication, confidence for common tasks, and barriers using Likert-type scales. It was developed by the authors based on prior work, a focus group, and feedback from pilot respondents. We received 332 completed surveys. On most or every shift, many participants reported having concerns about a patient's or family's understanding of prognosis (53%) or the patient's code status (63%). Most participants were either confident or very confident in discussing goals of care (93%) and prognosis (87%). Fewer were confident or very confident in responding to patients or families who had not accepted the seriousness of an illness (59%) or in managing conflict (50%). Other frequently cited barriers were lack of time, lack of prior discussions in the outpatient setting, unrealistic prognostic expectations from other physicians, limited institutional support, and difficulty finding records of previous discussions. Our results suggest opportunities to improve hospitalists' ability to lead serious illness communication by increasing the time hospitalists have for discussions, improving documentation systems and communication between inpatient and outpatient clinicians, and targeted training on challenging communication scenarios.

  18. 'Asking the hard questions': Improving midwifery students' confidence with domestic violence screening in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rachel; Wight, Raechel; Homer, Caroline S E

    2018-01-01

    Domestic violence is a global public health issue. Midwives are ideally placed to screen for, and respond to, disclosure of domestic violence. Qualified midwives and midwifery students report a lack of preparedness and low levels of confidence in working with women who disclose domestic violence. This paper reports the findings from an education intervention designed to increase midwifery students' confidence in working with pregnant women who disclose domestic violence. An authentic practice video and associated interactive workshop was developed to bring the 'woman' into the classroom and to provide role-modelling of exemplary midwifery practice in screening for and responding to disclosure of domestic violence. The findings demonstrated that students' confidence increased in a number of target areas, such as responding appropriately to disclosure and assisting women with access to support. Students' confidence increased in areas where responses needed to be individualised as opposed to being able to be scripted. Students appreciated visual demonstration (video of authentic practice) and having the opportunity to practise responding to disclosures through experiential learning. Given the general lack of confidence reported by both midwives and students of midwifery in this area of practice, this strategy may be useful in supporting midwives, students and other health professionals in increasing confidence in working with women who are experiencing domestic violence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Establishing confidence in the output of qualitative research synthesis: the ConQual approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munn, Zachary; Porritt, Kylie; Lockwood, Craig; Aromataris, Edoardo; Pearson, Alan

    2014-09-20

    The importance of findings derived from syntheses of qualitative research has been increasingly acknowledged. Findings that arise from qualitative syntheses inform questions of practice and policy in their own right and are commonly used to complement findings from quantitative research syntheses. The GRADE approach has been widely adopted by international organisations to rate the quality and confidence of the findings of quantitative systematic reviews. To date, there has been no widely accepted corresponding approach to assist health care professionals and policy makers in establishing confidence in the synthesised findings of qualitative systematic reviews. A methodological group was formed develop a process to assess the confidence in synthesised qualitative research findings and develop a Summary of Findings tables for meta-aggregative qualitative systematic reviews. Dependability and credibility are two elements considered by the methodological group to influence the confidence of qualitative synthesised findings. A set of critical appraisal questions are proposed to establish dependability, whilst credibility can be ranked according to the goodness of fit between the author's interpretation and the original data. By following the processes outlined in this article, an overall ranking can be assigned to rate the confidence of synthesised qualitative findings, a system we have labelled ConQual. The development and use of the ConQual approach will assist users of qualitative systematic reviews to establish confidence in the evidence produced in these types of reviews and can serve as a practical tool to assist in decision making.

  20. STUDY ON THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT ROMANIAN CONSUMERS HAVE REGARDING THE ORGANIC PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narcis Alexandru BOZGA

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Organic agriculture is a domain that is growing rapidly both in Europe or worldwide and in Romania. However, there is a limited number of researches which, by the used methodology, are able to offer a definite and appropriate image of the Romanian market of organic products. In this respect, we considered as relevant to conduct certain market researches which can offer a wide image of the Romanian market of organic products. The present study aimed to briefly present some ideas learned from these researches concerning the level of confidence that the Romanian consumer has in organic products and the way in which the level of confidence may influence the purchasing behavior. Among the most important conclusions, it could be mentioned the low level of confidence that a large number of Romanian consumers has regarding the organic products, the decision to buy organic products is strongly influenced by the confidence expressed by the consumer, as well as the lack of confidence in organic products represents one of the main reasons for not buying it, in some cases being more important than the high price. After a deeper analysis, the final conclusion is that, at least partially, the low level of confidence in organic products is determined by the confusion and the low information level, on one hand, and by some producers' practices that so not seem to comply with the certification community norms.