WorldWideScience

Sample records for k-5 confidence regions

  1. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  2. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  3. Multidimensional confidence regions for pareto, exponential, and normal distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Lennartz, Jens

    2017-01-01

    The two classical approaches in estimation theory are point estimation and confidence interval estimation. A confidence interval contains the unknown parameter of interest of a parametric family of distributions with a probability greater than or equal to a certain value, called confidence coefficient or confidence level. If we deal with multiparametric families of distributions, we are interested in simultaneously estimating the parameter vector by determining a multidimensional confidence r...

  4. Characterisation of the effects of ATPA, a GLU(K5) kainate receptor agonist, on GABAergic synaptic transmission in the CA1 region of rat hippocampal slices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, V R J; Collingridge, G L

    2004-09-01

    Kainate receptors are implicated in a variety of physiological and pathological processes in the CNS. Previously we demonstrated that (RS)-2-amino-3-(3-hydroxy-5-tert-butylisoxazol-4-yl)propanoic acid (ATPA), a selective agonist for the GLU(K5) subtype of kainate receptor, depresses monosynaptically evoked inhibitory postsynaptic potentials (IPSPs) in the CA1 region of the rat hippocampus. In the current study, we provide a more detailed characterisation of this effect. Firstly, our data demonstrate a rank order of potency of domoate>kainate>ATPA>alpha-amino-3-(3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxalolyl)propionic acid Secondly, we confirm that the effects of ATPA are not mediated indirectly via the activation of gamma-aminobutyric acid receptors (i.e. either GABA(A) or GABA(B)). Thirdly, we show that the small increase in conductance induced by ATPA is insufficient to account for the depression of monosynaptic inhibition. Fourthly, we show that the effects of ATPA on IPSPs are antagonised by the GLU(K5)-selective antagonist (3S, 4aR, 6S, 8aR)-6-(4-carboxyphenyl)methyl-1,2,3,4,4a,5,6,7,8,8a-decahydroisoquinoline-3-carboxylic acid (LY382884). However, LY382884 is less potent as an antagonist of the effects of ATPA on IPSPs compared to its depressant effect on EPSPs.

  5. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Joshua P.; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

    2017-07-01

    We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  6. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. French

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  7. GENERALIZED CONFIDENCE REGIONS OF FIXED EFFECTS IN THE TWO-WAY ANOVA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weiyan MU; Shifeng XIONG; Xingzhong XU

    2008-01-01

    The authors discuss the unbalanced two-way ANOVA model under heteroscedasticity. By taking the generalized approach, the authors derive the generalized p-values for testing the equality of fixed effects and the generalized confidence regions for these effects. The authors also provide their frequentist properties in large-sample cases. Simulation studies show that the generalized confidence regions have good coverage probabilities.

  8. Empirical likelihood confidence regions of the parameters in a partially linear single-index model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUE Liugen; ZHU Lixing

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, a partially linear single-index model is investigated, and three empirical log-likelihood ratio statistics for the unknown parameters in the model are suggested. It is proved that the proposed statistics are asymptotically standard chi-square under some suitable conditions, and hence can be used to construct the confidence regions of the parameters. Our methods can also deal with the confidence region construction for the index in the pure single-index model. A simulation study indicates that, in terms of coverage probabilities and average areas of the confidence regions, the proposed methods perform better than the least-squares method.

  9. Common and specific brain regions in high- versus low-confidence recognition memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hongkeun; Cabeza, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    The goal of the present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study was to investigate whether and to what extent brain regions involved in high-confidence recognition (HCR) versus low-confidence recognition (LCR) overlap or separate from each other. To this end, we performed conjunction analyses involving activations elicited during high-confidence hit, low-confidence hit, and high-confidence correct-rejection responses. The analyses yielded 3 main findings. First, sensory/perceptual and associated posterior regions were common to HCR and LCR, indicating contribution of these regions to both HCR and LCR activity. This finding may help explain why these regions are among the most common in functional neuroimaging studies of episodic retrieval. Second, medial temporal lobe (MTL) and associated midline regions were associated with HCR, possibly reflecting recollection-related processes, whereas specific prefrontal cortex (PFC) regions were associated with LCR, possibly reflecting executive control processes. This finding is consistent with the notion that the MTL and PFC networks play complementary roles during episodic retrieval. Finally, within posterior parietal cortex, a dorsal region was associated with LCR, possibly reflecting top-down attentional processes, whereas a ventral region was associated with HCR, possibly reflecting bottom-up attentional processes. This finding may help explain why functional neuroimaging studies have found diverse parietal effects during episodic retrieval. Taken together, our findings provide strong evidence that HCR versus LCR, and by implication, recollection versus familiarity processes, are represented in common as well as specific brain regions. PMID:19501072

  10. CONFIDENCE REGIONS IN TERMS OF STATISTICAL CURVATURE FOR AR(q) NONLINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘应安; 韦博成

    2004-01-01

    This paper constructs a set of confidence regions of parameters in terms of statistical curvatures for AR(q) nonlinear regression models. The geometric frameworks are proposed for the model. Then several confidence regions for parameters and parameter subsets in terms of statistical curvatures are given based on the likelihood ratio statistics and score statistics. Several previous results, such as [1] and [2] are extended to AR(q)nonlinear regression models.

  11. Empirical Likelihood based Confidence Regions for first order parameters of a heavy tailed distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Worms, Julien

    2010-01-01

    Let $X_1, \\ldots, X_n$ be some i.i.d. observations from a heavy tailed distribution $F$, i.e. such that the common distribution of the excesses over a high threshold $u_n$ can be approximated by a Generalized Pareto Distribution $G_{\\gamma,\\sigma_n}$ with $\\gamma >0$. This work is devoted to the problem of finding confidence regions for the couple $(\\gamma,\\sigma_n)$ : combining the empirical likelihood methodology with estimation equations (close but not identical to the likelihood equations) introduced by J. Zhang (Australian and New Zealand J. Stat n.49(1), 2007), asymptotically valid confidence regions for $(\\gamma,\\sigma_n)$ are obtained and proved to perform better than Wald-type confidence regions (especially those derived from the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators). By profiling out the scale parameter, confidence intervals for the tail index are also derived.

  12. Confidence Region Approach for Assessing Bioequivalence and Biosimilarity Accounting for Heterogeneity of Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianghao Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available For approval of generic drugs, the FDA requires that evidence of bioequivalence in average bioequivalence in terms of drug absorption be provided through the conduct of a bioequivalence study. A test product is said to be average bioequivalent to a reference (innovative product if the 90% confidence interval of the ratio of means (after log-transformation is totally within (80%, 125%. This approach is considered a one-parameter approach, which does not account for possible heterogeneity of variability between drug products. In this paper, we study a two-parameter approach (i.e., confidence region approach for assessing bioequivalence, which can also be applied to assessing biosimilarity of biosimilar products. The proposed confidence region approach is compared with the traditional one-parameter approach both theoretically and numerically (i.e., simulation study for finite sample performance.

  13. Augmenting Chinese hamster genome assembly by identifying regions of high confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishwanathan, Nandita; Bandyopadhyay, Arpan A; Fu, Hsu-Yuan; Sharma, Mohit; Johnson, Kathryn C; Mudge, Joann; Ramaraj, Thiruvarangan; Onsongo, Getiria; Silverstein, Kevin A T; Jacob, Nitya M; Le, Huong; Karypis, George; Hu, Wei-Shou

    2016-09-01

    Chinese hamster Ovary (CHO) cell lines are the dominant industrial workhorses for therapeutic recombinant protein production. The availability of genome sequence of Chinese hamster and CHO cells will spur further genome and RNA sequencing of producing cell lines. However, the mammalian genomes assembled using shot-gun sequencing data still contain regions of uncertain quality due to assembly errors. Identifying high confidence regions in the assembled genome will facilitate its use for cell engineering and genome engineering. We assembled two independent drafts of Chinese hamster genome by de novo assembly from shotgun sequencing reads and by re-scaffolding and gap-filling the draft genome from NCBI for improved scaffold lengths and gap fractions. We then used the two independent assemblies to identify high confidence regions using two different approaches. First, the two independent assemblies were compared at the sequence level to identify their consensus regions as "high confidence regions" which accounts for at least 78 % of the assembled genome. Further, a genome wide comparison of the Chinese hamster scaffolds with mouse chromosomes revealed scaffolds with large blocks of collinearity, which were also compiled as high-quality scaffolds. Genome scale collinearity was complemented with EST based synteny which also revealed conserved gene order compared to mouse. As cell line sequencing becomes more commonly practiced, the approaches reported here are useful for assessing the quality of assembly and potentially facilitate the engineering of cell lines.

  14. Graphical Methods for Investigating the Finite-sample Properties of Confidence Regions: an application to long memory

    OpenAIRE

    Christian de Peretti; Carole Siani

    2006-01-01

    In the literature, there are not satisfactory methods for measuring and presenting the performance of confidence regions. In this paper, techniques for measuring effectiveness of confidence regions and for the graphical display of simulation evidence concerning the coverage and effectiveness of confidence regions are developed and illustrated. Three types of figures are discussed: called coverage plots, coverage discrepancy plots, and coverage effectiveness curves, that permits to show the ``...

  15. The role of unattended ground sensors (UGS) in regional confidence building and arms control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vannoni, M.; Duggan, R.

    1997-03-01

    Although the Cold War has ended, the world has not become more peaceful. Without the stability provided by an international system dominated by two super-powers, local conflicts are more likely to escalate. Agreements to counter destabilizing pressures in regional conflicts can benefit from the use of cooperative monitoring. Cooperative monitoring is the collecting, analyzing, and sharing of information among parties to an agreement. Ground sensor technologies can contribute to the collection of relevant information. If implemented with consideration for local conditions, cooperative monitoring can build confidence, strengthen existing agreements, and set the stage for continued progress. This presentation describes two examples: the Israeli-Egyptian Sinai agreements of the 1970s and a conceptual example for the contemporary Korean Peninsula. The Sinai was a precedent for the successful use of UGS within the context of cooperative monitoring. The Korean Peninsula is the world`s largest military confrontation. Future confidence building measures that address the security needs of both countries could decrease the danger of conflict and help create an environment for a peace agreement.

  16. Confidence Region of Least Squares Solution for Single-Arc Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Principe, G.; Armellin, R.; Lewis, H.

    2016-09-01

    The total number of active satellites, rocket bodies, and debris larger than 10 cm is currently about 20,000. Considering all resident space objects larger than 1 cm this rises to an estimated minimum of 500,000 objects. Latest generation sensor networks will be able to detect small-size objects, producing millions of observations per day. Due to observability constraints it is likely that long gaps between observations will occur for small objects. This requires to determine the space object (SO) orbit and to accurately describe the associated uncertainty when observations are acquired on a single arc. The aim of this work is to revisit the classical least squares method taking advantage of the high order Taylor expansions enabled by differential algebra. In particular, the high order expansion of the residuals with respect to the state is used to implement an arbitrary order least squares solver, avoiding the typical approximations of differential correction methods. In addition, the same expansions are used to accurately characterize the confidence region of the solution, going beyond the classical Gaussian distributions. The properties and performances of the proposed method are discussed using optical observations of objects in LEO, HEO, and GEO.

  17. Optimizing Your K-5 Engineering Design Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Matthew Perkins; Merz, Alice H.

    2017-01-01

    Today, elementary school teachers continue to revisit old lessons and seek out new ones, especially in engineering. Optimization is the process by which an existing product or procedure is revised and refined. Drawn from the authors' experiences working directly with students in grades K-5 and their teachers and preservice teachers, the…

  18. Optimizing Your K-5 Engineering Design Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Matthew Perkins; Merz, Alice H.

    2017-01-01

    Today, elementary school teachers continue to revisit old lessons and seek out new ones, especially in engineering. Optimization is the process by which an existing product or procedure is revised and refined. Drawn from the authors' experiences working directly with students in grades K-5 and their teachers and preservice teachers, the…

  19. Confidence Region Approach for Assessing Bioequivalence and Biosimilarity Accounting for Heterogeneity of Variability

    OpenAIRE

    Jianghao Li; Shein-Chung Chow

    2015-01-01

    For approval of generic drugs, the FDA requires that evidence of bioequivalence in average bioequivalence in terms of drug absorption be provided through the conduct of a bioequivalence study. A test product is said to be average bioequivalent to a reference (innovative) product if the 90% confidence interval of the ratio of means (after log-transformation) is totally within (80%, 125%). This approach is considered a one-parameter approach, which does not account for possible heterogeneity of...

  20. Identification of Low-Confidence Regions in the Pig Reference Genome (Sscrofa10.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warr, Amanda; Robert, Christelle; Hume, David; Archibald, Alan L.; Deeb, Nader; Watson, Mick

    2015-01-01

    Many applications of high throughput sequencing rely on the availability of an accurate reference genome. Variant calling often produces large data sets that cannot be realistically validated and which may contain large numbers of false-positives. Errors in the reference assembly increase the number of false-positives. While resources are available to aid in the filtering of variants from human data, for other species these do not yet exist and strict filtering techniques must be employed which are more likely to exclude true-positives. This work assesses the accuracy of the pig reference genome (Sscrofa10.2) using whole genome sequencing reads from the Duroc sow whose genome the assembly was based on. Indicators of structural variation including high regional coverage, unexpected insert sizes, improper pairing and homozygous variants were used to identify low quality (LQ) regions of the assembly. Low coverage (LC) regions were also identified and analyzed separately. The LQ regions covered 13.85% of the genome, the LC regions covered 26.6% of the genome and combined (LQLC) they covered 33.07% of the genome. Over half of dbSNP variants were located in the LQLC regions. Of copy number variable regions identified in a previous study, 86.3% were located in the LQLC regions. The regions were also enriched for gene predictions from RNA-seq data with 42.98% falling in the LQLC regions. Excluding variants in the LQ, LC, or LQLC from future analyses will help reduce the number of false-positive variant calls. Researchers using WGS data should be aware that the current pig reference genome does not give an accurate representation of the copy number of alleles in the original Duroc sow’s genome. PMID:26640477

  1. Identification of Low-Confidence Regions in the Pig Reference Genome (Sscrofa10.2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warr, Amanda; Robert, Christelle; Hume, David; Archibald, Alan L; Deeb, Nader; Watson, Mick

    2015-01-01

    Many applications of high throughput sequencing rely on the availability of an accurate reference genome. Variant calling often produces large data sets that cannot be realistically validated and which may contain large numbers of false-positives. Errors in the reference assembly increase the number of false-positives. While resources are available to aid in the filtering of variants from human data, for other species these do not yet exist and strict filtering techniques must be employed which are more likely to exclude true-positives. This work assesses the accuracy of the pig reference genome (Sscrofa10.2) using whole genome sequencing reads from the Duroc sow whose genome the assembly was based on. Indicators of structural variation including high regional coverage, unexpected insert sizes, improper pairing and homozygous variants were used to identify low quality (LQ) regions of the assembly. Low coverage (LC) regions were also identified and analyzed separately. The LQ regions covered 13.85% of the genome, the LC regions covered 26.6% of the genome and combined (LQLC) they covered 33.07% of the genome. Over half of dbSNP variants were located in the LQLC regions. Of copy number variable regions identified in a previous study, 86.3% were located in the LQLC regions. The regions were also enriched for gene predictions from RNA-seq data with 42.98% falling in the LQLC regions. Excluding variants in the LQ, LC, or LQLC from future analyses will help reduce the number of false-positive variant calls. Researchers using WGS data should be aware that the current pig reference genome does not give an accurate representation of the copy number of alleles in the original Duroc sow's genome.

  2. Identification of low-confidence regions in the pig reference genome (Sscrofa10.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda eWarr

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Many applications of high throughput sequencing rely on the availability of an accurate reference genome. Variant calling often produces large data sets that cannot be realistically validated and which may contain large numbers of false-positives. Errors in the reference assembly increase the number of false-positives. While resources are available to aid in the filtering of variants from human data, for other species these do not yet exist and strict filtering techniques must be employed which are more likely to exclude true-positives. This work assesses the accuracy of the pig reference genome (Sscrofa10.2 using whole genome sequencing reads from the Duroc sow whose genome the assembly was based on. Indicators of structural variation including high regional coverage, unexpected insert sizes, improper pairing and homozygous variants were used to identify low quality (LQ regions of the assembly. Low coverage (LC regions were also identified and analyzed separately. The LQ regions covered 13.85% of the genome, the LC regions covered 26.6% of the genome and combined (LQLC they covered 33.07% of the genome. Over half of dbSNP variants were located in the LQLC regions. Of CNVRs identified in a previous study, 86.3% were located in the LQLC regions. The regions were also enriched for gene predictions from RNA-seq data with 42.98% falling in the LQLC regions. Excluding variants in the LQ, LC or LQLC from future analyses will help reduce the number of false-positive variant calls. Researchers using WGS data should be aware that the current pig reference genome does not give an accurate representation of the copy number of alleles in the original Duroc sow’s genome.

  3. Visual Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamassian, Pascal

    2016-10-14

    Visual confidence refers to an observer's ability to judge the accuracy of her perceptual decisions. Even though confidence judgments have been recorded since the early days of psychophysics, only recently have they been recognized as essential for a deeper understanding of visual perception. The reluctance to study visual confidence may have come in part from obtaining convincing experimental evidence in favor of metacognitive abilities rather than just perceptual sensitivity. Some effort has thus been dedicated to offer different experimental paradigms to study visual confidence in humans and nonhuman animals. To understand the origins of confidence judgments, investigators have developed two competing frameworks. The approach based on signal decision theory is popular but fails to account for response times. In contrast, the approach based on accumulation of evidence models naturally includes the dynamics of perceptual decisions. These models can explain a range of results, including the apparently paradoxical dissociation between performance and confidence that is sometimes observed.

  4. Gifted Education and National Standards: A K-5 Program Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell-Braun, Debra A.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to conduct a program evaluation of a K-5 Gifted Education Program. Program evaluation addressed how well the gifted education program studied met the National Association of Gifted Children standards. In addition, this study included stakeholder perceptions of the current gifted education program K-5. This program…

  5. On the Crossing Numbers of K5×Sn%K5×Sn的交叉数

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕胜祥; 黄元秋

    2008-01-01

    By connecting the 5 vertices of K5 to other n vertices, we obtain a special family of graph denoted by Hn. This paper proves that the crossing number of Hn is Z(5, n) +2n+[n/2] 1, and the crossing number of Cartesian products of K5 with star Sn is Z(5, n) + 5n + [n/2]+1.

  6. Improved confidence in regional climate model simulations of precipitation evaluated using drought statistics from the ENSEMBLES models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maule, Cathrine Fox; Thejll, Peter; Christensen, Jens H.; Svendsen, Synne H.; Hannaford, Jamie

    2013-01-01

    An ensemble of regional climate model simulations from the European framework project ENSEMBLES is compared with observations of low precipitation events across a number of European regions. We characterize precipitation deficits in terms of two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. Models that robustly describe the observations for the period 1961-2000 in given regions are identified and an assessment of the overall performance of the ensemble is provided. The results show that in general, models capture the most severe drought events and that the ensemble mean model also performs well. Some regions that appear to be more problematic to simulate well are also identified. These are relatively small regions and have rather complex topographical features. The analysis suggests that assessment of future drought occurrence based on climate change experiments in general would appear to be robust. But due to the heterogeneous and often fine-scaled structure of drought occurrence, quantitative results should be used with great care, particularly in regions with complex terrain and limited information about past drought occurrence.

  7. Juneau Indian Studies Elementary Curriculum Guide. Grades K-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadiente, Ronalda

    Designed to provide instruction in Tlingit culture as an integral part of the K-5 social studies curriculum, this guide presents teachers with extensive lesson plans and numerous resource materials. The units of study focus on the culture and environment of southeast Alaska and emphasize experiential learning activities. Each grade…

  8. Math and Economics: Implementing Authentic Instruction in Grades K-5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althauser, Krista; Harter, Cynthia

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to outline a partnership program that involved a local elementary school district, an institution of higher education, the local business community, and a state economic education advocacy group to integrate economics into math in grades K-5. The "Economics: Math in Real Life" program was provided in…

  9. The Common Core: Insights into the K-5 Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Maureen; Overturf, Brenda J.

    2012-01-01

    The role of the Common Core English Language Arts Standards in grades K-5 literacy instruction is the focus of the article. The authors begin by raising four questions: (1) What is the essential philosophy of the Common Core State Standards?; (2) What do educators need to know to use the College and Career Readiness Standards and Common Core State…

  10. On Confidence Region of Nonlinear Models with Random Effects%非线性随机效应模型的置信域

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宗序平; 孟国明; 韦博成

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a differential geometric framework for nonlinear models with random effects. Our framework may be regarded as an extension of that presented by Bates & watts for nonlinear regression models. As an application, we use this geometric framework to derive three kinds of improved approximate confidence regions for parameter and parameter subset of fixed effect in terms of curvatures.%本文对非线性随机效应模型,建立了微分几何框架,推广了Bates & Wates关于非线性模型几何结构.在吡基础上,我们导出了关于固定效应参数和子集参数的置信域的曲率表示,这些结果是Bates and Wates(1980),Hamilton(1986)与Wei(1994)等的推广.

  11. Integrating the Performing Arts in Grades K-5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Rekha S.

    2012-01-01

    Research documents that the arts boost learning, build confidence, and motivate students to participate in class. How do we keep the performing arts alive in this era of increased accountability and decreased funding? Rekha S. Rajan sets the stage for a creative and practical solution with detailed, concrete examples of how to integrate the…

  12. Porcine MAP3K5 analysis: molecular cloning, characterization, tissue expression pattern, and copy number variations associated with residual feed intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, L; Zhang, L C; Zhang, J S; Song, X; Wang, L G; Liang, J; Zhang, Y B; Liu, X; Yan, H; Zhang, T; Yue, J W; Li, N; Wu, Q Q; Wang, L X

    2016-08-12

    Mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase kinase 5 (MAP3K5) is essential for apoptosis, proliferation, differentiation, and immune responses, and is a candidate marker for residual feed intake (RFI) in pig. We cloned the full-length cDNA sequence of porcine MAP3K5 by rapid-amplification of cDNA ends. The 5451-bp gene contains a 5'-untranslated region (UTR) (718 bp), a coding region (3738 bp), and a 3'-UTR (995 bp), and encodes a peptide of 1245 amino acids, which shares 97, 99, 97, 93, 91, and 84% sequence identity with cattle, sheep, human, mouse, chicken, and zebrafish MAP3K5, respectively. The deduced MAP3K5 protein sequence contains two conserved domains: a DUF4071 domain and a protein kinase domain. Phylogenetic analysis showed that porcine MAP3K5 forms a separate branch to vicugna and camel MAP3K5. Tissue expression analysis using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) revealed that MAP3K5 was expressed in the heart, liver, spleen, lung, kidney, muscle, fat, pancrea, ileum, and stomach tissues. Copy number variation was detected for porcine MAP3K5 and validated by qRT-PCR. Furthermore, a significant increase in average copy number was detected in the low RFI group when compared to the high RFI group in a Duroc pig population. These results provide useful information regarding the influence of MAP3K5 on RFI in pigs.

  13. Inter-RMO Key Comparison EUROMET.L-K5.2004: Calibration of a step gauge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prieto, Emilio; Brown, Nicholas; Lassila, Antti

    2012-01-01

    The results of the inter-RMO key comparison EUROMET.L-K5.2004 on the calibration of a step gauge are reported. Eighteen National Metrology Institutes and one Designated Institute from four different metrological regions all over the world participated in this comparison which lasted three years...

  14. 26 CFR 1.401(k)-5 - Special rules for mergers, acquisitions and similar events. [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Special rules for mergers, acquisitions and similar events. 1.401(k)-5 Section 1.401(k)-5 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE.... § 1.401(k)-5 Special rules for mergers, acquisitions and similar events....

  15. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  16. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The M...

  17. Increasing Mobility Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Español In Your Area NPF Shop Increasing Mobility Confidence To increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Make Text Smaller ... It might seem counterintuitive, but to increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Build physical activity ...

  18. A pharmacological profile of the high-affinity GluK5 kainate receptor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møllerud, Stine; Kastrup, Jette Sandholm; Pickering, Darryl S

    2016-10-05

    Mouse GluK5 was expressed in Sf9 insect cells and radiolabelled with [(3)H]-kainate in receptor binding assays (Kd=6.9nM). Western immunoblotting indicated an Sf9 GluK5 band doublet corresponding to the glycosylated (128kDa) and deglycosylated (111kDa) protein, which was identical to the band pattern of native rat brain GluK5. A pharmacological profile of the high-affinity kainate receptor GluK5 is described which is distinct from the profiles of other kainate receptors (GluK1-3). The 27 tested ligands generally show a preferential affinity to GluK1 over GluK5, the exceptions being: dihydrokainate, (S)-5-fluorowillardiine, (S)-glutamate and quisqualate, where the affinity is similar at GluK1 and GluK5. In contrast, quisqualate shows 40-fold higher affinity at GluK5 over GluK3 whereas (S)-1-(2'-amino-2'-caboxyethyl)thienol[3,4-d]pyrimidin-2,4-dione (NF1231), (RS)-2-amino-3-(5-tert-butyl-3-hydroxyisoxazol-4-yl)propionate (ATPA), dihydrokainate and (2S,4R)-4-methyl-glutamate (SYM2081) have higher affinity at GluK3 compared to GluK5. Since some studies have indicated that GluK5 is associated with various diseases in the central nervous system (e.g. schizophrenia, temporal lobe epilepsy, bipolar disorder), selective GluK5 ligands could have therapeutic potential. The distinct pharmacological profile of GluK5 suggests that it would be possible to design ligands with selectivity towards GluK5.

  19. Strengthening Public Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlihy, John J.

    Board members and administrators can build public confidence in their schools by taking every opportunity to communicate positive attitudes about the people in the schools. As leaders, they have the responsibility to use people power to promote the schools. If school employees feel good about their jobs, they will build confidence within the…

  20. A pharmacological profile of the high-affinity GluK5 kainate receptor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møllerud, Stine; Kastrup, Jette Sandholm Jensen; Pickering, Darryl S

    2016-01-01

    Mouse GluK5 was expressed in Sf9 insect cells and radiolabelled with [3H]-kainate in receptor binding assays (Kd = 6.9 nM). Western immunoblotting indicated an Sf9 GluK5 band doublet corresponding to the glycosylated (128 kDa) and deglycosylated (111 kDa) protein, which was identical to the band...

  1. Trust vs. Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    defined. Although there are many different definitions of trust, our definition (Adams and Webb, 2003) is as follows: Trust is a psychological state...Judgments: Experiments on the Time to Determine Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology : Human Perception and Performance, 24(3), 929-945. BARANSKI...PETRUSIC, W. (2001). Testing Architectures of the Decision-Confidence Relation. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology , 55(3): 195-206. PETRUSIC, W

  2. Interaction of Escherichia coli K1 and K5 with Acanthamoeba castellanii trophozoites and cysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matin, Abdul; Jung, Suk-Yul

    2011-12-01

    The existence of symbiotic relationships between Acanthamoeba and a variety of bacteria is well-documented. However, the ability of Acanthamoeba interacting with host bacterial pathogens has gained particular attention. Here, to understand the interactions of Escherichia coli K1 and E. coli K5 strains with Acanthamoeba castellanii trophozoites and cysts, association assay, invasion assay, survival assay, and the measurement of bacterial numbers from cysts were performed, and nonpathogenic E. coli K12 was also applied. The association ratio of E. coli K1 with A. castellanii was 4.3 cfu per amoeba for 1 hr but E. coli K5 with A. castellanii was 1 cfu per amoeba for 1 hr. By invasion and survival assays, E. coli K5 was recovered less than E. coli K1 but still alive inside A. castellanii. E. coli K1 and K5 survived and multiplied intracellularly in A. castellanii. The survival assay was performed under a favourable condition for 22 hr and 43 hr with the encystment of A. castellanii. Under the favourable condition for the transformation of trophozoites into cysts, E. coli K5 multiplied significantly. Moreover, the pathogenic potential of E. coli K1 from A. castellanii cysts exhibited no changes as compared with E. coli K1 from A. castellanii trophozoites. E. coli K5 was multiplied in A. castellanii trophozoites and survived in A. castellanii cysts. Therefore, this study suggests that E. coli K5 can use A. castellanii as a reservoir host or a vector for the bacterial transmission.

  3. The Confidence Trick

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Keen

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  4. The Confidence Trick

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  5. Confidence in Coastal Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis answers the question "How can we show and improve our confidence in coastal forecasts?", by providing four examples of common coastal forecasts. The first example shows how to improve the estimate of the one in ten thousand year storm-surge level. The three dimensional reconstruction,

  6. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an instructional…

  7. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... new skill and milestone, kids can develop increasing confidence. Parents can help by giving kids lots of opportunities to practice and master their skills, letting kids make mistakes and being there to boost their spirits so they keep trying. Respond with ...

  8. Resolving the Confidence Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apter, Terri

    2006-01-01

    As children approach adolescence, they often experience confusion and uncertainty as they attempt to appear more grown up than they really feel. Research on both girls and boys has documented that the buoyant self-confidence of younger children often gives way to self-consciousness as young adolescents become aware of the complexity and difficulty…

  9. Business Confidence Survey 2000

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Yan

    2009-01-01

    @@ In order to gain a better understanding about the depth and breadth of its effect on European companies'businesses,the new strategies they are adopting to cope with the crisis,and how their attitudes to towards China-including long-term plans-have changed in its aftermath,the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China today launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey,which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Beijing on June 30,2009.Drawing on the responses of more than 300 European companies active in China.the 2009 Survey highlights a European business community that remains bullish in China in most sectors and read to back up that confidence with continued investment in the local economy provided that Chinese government is committed to creating a more free,fair and competitive market.

  10. Varieties of Confidence Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousineau, Denis

    2017-01-01

    Error bars are useful to understand data and their interrelations. Here, it is shown that confidence intervals of the mean (CI M s) can be adjusted based on whether the objective is to highlight differences between measures or not and based on the experimental design (within- or between-group designs). Confidence intervals (CIs) can also be adjusted to take into account the sampling mechanisms and the population size (if not infinite). Names are proposed to distinguish the various types of CIs and the assumptions underlying them, and how to assess their validity is explained. The various CIs presented here are easily obtained from a succession of multiplicative adjustments to the basic (unadjusted) CI width. All summary results should present a measure of precision, such as CIs, as this information is complementary to effect sizes.

  11. Assembly Stoichiometry of the GluK2/GluK5 Kainate Receptor Complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Reiner

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Ionotropic glutamate receptors assemble as homo- or heterotetramers. One well-studied heteromeric complex is formed by the kainate receptor subunits GluK2 and GluK5. Retention motifs prevent trafficking of GluK5 homomers to the plasma membrane, but coassembly with GluK2 yields functional heteromeric receptors. Additional control over GluK2/GluK5 assembly seems to be exerted by the amino-terminal domains, which preferentially assemble into heterodimers as isolated domains. However, the stoichiometry of the full-length GluK2/GluK5 receptor complex has yet to be determined, as is the case for all non-NMDA glutamate receptors. Here, we address this question, using a single-molecule imaging technique that enables direct counting of the number of each GluK subunit type in homomeric and heteromeric receptors in the plasma membranes of live cells. We show that GluK2 and GluK5 assemble with 2:2 stoichiometry. This is an important step toward understanding the assembly mechanism, architecture, and functional consequences of heteromer formation in ionotropic glutamate receptors.

  12. Evaluation of a multiplex PCR for detection of serotypes K1, K2 and K5 in Klebsiella sp. and comparison of isolates within these serotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turton, Jane F; Baklan, Hatice; Siu, L K; Kaufmann, Mary E; Pitt, Tyrone L

    2008-07-01

    A multiplex PCR using targets within the serotype-specific region of the capsular polysaccharide synthesis gene cluster of serotypes K1, K2 and K5 was evaluated using the 77 reference serotype strains of Klebsiella, and a panel of clinical isolates subjected previously to conventional serotyping. The PCR was highly specific for these serotypes, which are those most associated with virulence in humans and horses. PCR confirmed that isolates of the K5 serotype had cross-reacted with antiserum for other serotypes, particularly for K7. K5 isolates received by our laboratory were almost exclusively from thoroughbred horses, and were submitted for screening prior to breeding programmes. Most, including a reference strain isolated in 1955, belonged to a cluster of genetically similar isolates of sequence type (ST) 60. K1 isolates, all from humans, belonged to a previously identified cluster of ST 23.

  13. Multifrequency Study of Giant Radio Pulses from the Crab Pulsar with K5 VLBI Recording Terminal

    CERN Document Server

    Popov, M V; Kondratiev, V I; Bilous, A V; Moshkina, O; Oreshko, V V; Ilyasov, Yu P; Sekido, M; Kondo, T

    2009-01-01

    Simultaneous multifrequency observations of the Crab pulsar giant pulses (GPs) were performed with the 64-m Kalyazin radio telescope at four frequencies 0.6, 1.4, 2.2 and 8.3 GHz using the K5 VLBI recording terminal. K5 terminal provided continuous recording in 16 4-MHz wide frequency channels distributed over 4 frequency bands. Several thousands of GPs were detected during about 6 hours of observations in two successive days in July 2005. Radio spectra of single GPs were analysed at separate frequencies and over whole frequency range. These spectra manifest notable modulation both on large ($\\Delta\

  14. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  15. Interrelation of economic confidence with other types of confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Бонецький, Орест Олегович

    2013-01-01

    The paper gives the object and the subject of the study, which are used as a criterion allowing to separate the economic confidence from other types of confidence. The terms describing the psychological and sociological confidence are proposed. It was found that the economic confidence is interrelated with psychological confidence by motivation and advertising, sociological – by the results of activity of public organizations, state regulation of the economy. On the example of information-com...

  16. Comparisons of Apparent Diffusion Coefficient Values in Penumbra, Infarct, and Normal Brain Regions in Acute Ischemic Stroke: Confirmatory Data Using Bootstrap Confidence Intervals, Analysis of Variance, and Analysis of Means.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Mejia, Mariana; Roldan-Valadez, Ernesto

    2016-03-01

    There is no consensus about apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in acute stroke regions that could be used by clinicians in a day-to-day clinical practice; regional measures using confidence intervals (CIs) and a graphic representation of means are scarce in the literature. Our aim in this study was to compare ADC values in infarct, penumbra, and normal brain regions in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). This is a retrospective study of 100 magnetic resonance imaging data sets from AIS patients. ADC values were measured in the infarct, penumbra, and normal regions. Three hundred measurements underwent 1-way analysis of variance, analysis of means, and calculation of 95% and 84% CIs. There was a statistically significant difference at the P level less than .025 in ADC values for the 3 regions (F[2, 297] = 168.039, P ≤ .001), with no overlap of the CIs for the means among the regions: normal brain (mean [M] = .847, standard deviation [SD] = .103, 95% CI: .825-.866), infarct (M = .533, SD = .157, 95% CI: .501-.563), and penumbra (M = .764, SD = .110, 95% CI: .740-.787). ADC values might be used as reference data in acute stroke-specific populations; CIs would provide radiologists and clinicians with additional quantitative tools to evaluate penumbra, infarct, and normal brain tissue and to tailor follow-up and treatment options for selected patients. Copyright © 2016 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Simulation integration with confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.

    1999-07-01

    Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.

  18. Mobile Devices and the Teacher Perceived Barriers Impacting Effective Integration in the K-5 Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixon, Tina S.

    2013-01-01

    This qualitative, phenomenological study explored the teacher perceived barriers of using mobile devices in the K-5 classroom. Research confirms teachers face various types of variables and become reluctant to use technology within their curriculum driven lessons. This study sought to understand what teachers perceive as barriers, and how the…

  19. K-5 Student Experiences in a Dance Residency: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Alison E.; McShane-Hellenbrand, Karen

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the collaborating authors, a researcher and dance artist, confront assumptions surrounding dance's experiential nature and assessment in schools. Presenting findings from a qualitative case study assessment of a three-week, whole-school dance artist-in-residence at a diverse and inclusive metropolitan K-5 school, the authors focus…

  20. Democratic Bodies: Exemplary Practice and Democratic Education in a K-5 Dance Residency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Alison E.

    2014-01-01

    This research highlights a K-5 dance artist-in-residence as a form of democratic and exemplary dance education that ignited collaboration, promoted equity, fostered student autonomy, and demonstrated rigor in school curriculum. Through examining observation, interview, and performance-based data and calling upon critical, democratic education…

  1. Democratic Bodies: Exemplary Practice and Democratic Education in a K-5 Dance Residency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Alison E.

    2014-01-01

    This research highlights a K-5 dance artist-in-residence as a form of democratic and exemplary dance education that ignited collaboration, promoted equity, fostered student autonomy, and demonstrated rigor in school curriculum. Through examining observation, interview, and performance-based data and calling upon critical, democratic education…

  2. Confidence Regions of Parameters in Terms of Curvatures in Nonlinear Models With Bayes Conditions%Bayes条件下非线性模型的参数置信域的曲率表示

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴一凡

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a differential geometric framework for nonlinear models with Bayes conditions. The framework may be regarded as an extension of that presented by Bates & Watts for nonlinear regression models. On this basis,we use this geometric framework to discuss about the confidence regions for parameter and parameter subset in terms of curvature.%给出了Bayes条件下非线性模型的参数估计,建立了该模型的几何结构,推广了Bates&Wates关于非线性回归模型的几何框架,在此基础上,用几何方法探讨了关于参数与子集参数置信域的曲率表示.

  3. 拟似然非线性模型中的置信域:几何法%Confidence Regions in Quasi-Likelihood Nonlinear Models: A Geometric Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐年胜; 王学仁

    2000-01-01

    A modification of the geometric framework of Bates & Watts is proposedfor quasi-likelihood nonlinear models in Euclidean innerproduct space. Within this geometric framework, this paper provides three kinds of improved approximate confidence regions for the parameters and parameter subsets in terms of curvatures. The work extends the previous results of Hamilton et al. (1982), Hamilton (1986) and Wei (1994, 1998).%对拟似然非线性模型在欧氏内积空间建立了修改的Bates & Watts几何结构.基于此几何结构,导出了参数和子集参数的与统计曲率有关的三种近似置信域,进一步推广和发展了Hamilton et al. (1982), Hamilton (1986)和Wei (1994,1998)等人的相应结果.

  4. Statistics with confidence confidence intervals and statistical guidelines

    CERN Document Server

    Altman, Douglas; Bryant, Trevor; Gardner, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    This highly popular introduction to confidence intervals has been thoroughly updated and expanded. It includes methods for using confidence intervals, with illustrative worked examples and extensive guidelines and checklists to help the novice.

  5. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  6. Common Core Literacy Lesson Plans: Ready-to-Use Resources, K-5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lauren

    2013-01-01

    Schools nationwide are transitioning to the Common Core--our advice to you: Don't go it alone! Our new book, "Common Core Literacy Lesson Plans: Ready-to-Use Resources, K-5," shows you that teaching the Common Core State Standards in the elementary grades doesn't have to be intimidating! This easy-to-use guide provides model lesson plans for…

  7. Interaction of Escherichia coli K1 and K5 with Acanthamoeba castellanii Trophozoites and Cysts

    OpenAIRE

    Matin, Abdul; Jung, Suk-Yul

    2011-01-01

    The existence of symbiotic relationships between Acanthamoeba and a variety of bacteria is well-documented. However, the ability of Acanthamoeba interacting with host bacterial pathogens has gained particular attention. Here, to understand the interactions of Escherichia coli K1 and E. coli K5 strains with Acanthamoeba castellanii trophozoites and cysts, association assay, invasion assay, survival assay, and the measurement of bacterial numbers from cysts were performed, and nonpathogenic E. ...

  8. Pentapotassium praseodymium(III dilithium decafluoride, K5PrLi2F10

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Gagor

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The crystal structure of K5PrLi2F10 is isotypic with those of other K5RELi2F10 compounds (RE = Eu, Nd. The lanthanoid ions are isolated in K5PrLi2F10, with a mean separation between the Pr ions of 7.356 Å. It classifies this crystal as a so-called self-activated material containing lanthanoid ions within the matrix. Except for two K+ and two F− ions, all atoms are located on sites with m symmetry. In the structure, distorted PrF8 dodecahedra and two different LiF4 tetrahedra share F atoms, forming sheets parallel to (100. The isolated PrF8 dodecahedra exhibit a mean Pr—F distance of 2.406 Å. The K+ cations are located within and between these sheets, leading to highly irregular KFx polyhedra with coordination numbers of eight and nine for the alkali metal cations.

  9. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  10. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  11. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  12. US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?

    OpenAIRE

    Horn, Gustav Adolf

    2003-01-01

    One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other studies the direct informational content of leading US indicators for German producer confidence and the significance of asymmetric reactions is tested. The results show that there is a relationship bet...

  13. 缺失数据下非线性EV模型参数的经验似然置信域%Empirical Likelihood Confidence Regions of Parameters in Nonlinear EV Models under Missing Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘强; 薛留根

    2012-01-01

    The missing response problem in the nonlinear EV(error-in-variables) models is considered, where the explanatory variate X is erroneously measured. With the help of validation data, two empirical log-likelihood ratio statistics for the unknown parameters in the model are proposed. It is proved that the proposed statistics are asymptotically chi-square distribution under some mild conditions, and hence can be used to constructing the confidence regions of the parameters.%考虑解释变量带有测量误差且响应变量随机缺失情形下的非线性EV模型.通过利用核实数据,构造了未知参数的两种经验对数似然比统计量.证明了所构造统计量的分布渐近于x2分布,所得结果可以用来构造未知参数的渐近置信域.

  14. Condensation patterns of prophase/prometaphase chromosome are correlated with H4K5 histone acetylation and genomic DNA contents in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feitoza, Lidiane; Costa, Lucas; Guerra, Marcelo

    2017-01-01

    Mitotic prophase chromosome condensation plays an essential role in nuclear division being therefore regulated by highly conserved mechanisms. However, degrees of chromatin condensation in prophase-prometaphase cells may vary along the chromosomes resulting in specific condensation patterns. We examined different condensation patterns (CPs) of prophase and prometaphase chromosomes and investigated their relationship with genome size and distribution of histone H4 acetylated at lysine 5 (H4K5ac) in 17 plant species. Our results showed that most species with small genomes (2C < 5 pg) (Arachis pusilla, Bixa orellana, Costus spiralis, Eleutherine bulbosa, Indigofera campestris, Phaseolus lunatus, P. vulgaris, Poncirus trifoliata, and Solanum lycopersicum) displayed prophase chromosomes with late condensing terminal regions that were highly enriched in H4K5ac, and early condensing regions with apparently non-acetylated proximal chromatin. The species with large genomes (Allium cepa, Callisia repens, Araucaria angustifolia and Nothoscordum pulchellum) displayed uniformly condensed and acetylated prophase/prometaphase chromosomes. Three species with small genomes (Eleocharis geniculata, Rhynchospora pubera, and R. tenuis) displayed CP and H4K5ac labeling patterns similar to species with large genomes, whereas a forth species (Emilia sonchifolia) exhibited a gradual chromosome labeling, being more acetylated in the terminal regions and less acetylated in the proximal ones. The nucleolus organizer chromatin was the only chromosomal region that in prometaphase or metaphase could be hyperacetylated, hypoacetylated or non-acetylated, depending on the species. Our data indicate that the CP of a plant chromosome complement is influenced but not exclusively determined by nuclear and chromosomal DNA contents, whereas the CP of individual chromosomes is clearly correlated with H4K5ac distribution.

  15. Targeted deletion of Atg5 reveals differential roles of autophagy in keratin K5-expressing epithelia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sukseree, Supawadee [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Medicine, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok (Thailand); Rossiter, Heidemarie; Mildner, Michael [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Pammer, Johannes [Institute of Clinical Pathology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Buchberger, Maria; Gruber, Florian [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Watanapokasin, Ramida [Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Medicine, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok (Thailand); Tschachler, Erwin [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Eckhart, Leopold, E-mail: leopold.eckhart@meduniwien.ac.at [Research Division of Biology and Pathobiology of the Skin, Department of Dermatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria)

    2013-01-11

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We generated mice lacking Atg5 and autophagy in keratin K5-positive epithelia. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Suppression of autophagy in thymic epithelium was not associated with signs of autoimmunity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Autophagy was required for normal terminal differentiation of preputial gland cells. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Autophagy-deficient cells of the preputial glands degraded nuclear DNA prematurely. -- Abstract: Autophagy contributes to the homeostasis of many tissues, yet its role in epithelia is incompletely understood. A recent report proposed that Atg5-dependent autophagy in thymic epithelial cells is essential for their function in the negative selection of self-reactive T-cells and, thus, for the suppression of tissue inflammation. Here we crossed mice carrying floxed alleles of the Atg5 gene with mice expressing the Cre recombinase under the control of the keratin K5 promoter to suppress autophagy in all K5-positive epithelia. The efficiency of autophagy abrogation was confirmed by immunoanalyses of LC3, which was converted to the autophagy-associated LC3-II form in normal but not Atg5-deficient cells, and of p62, which accumulated in Atg5-deficient cells. Mice carrying the epithelium-specific deletion of Atg5 showed normal weight gain, absence of tissue inflammation, and a normal morphology of the thymic epithelium. By contrast, autophagy-deficient epithelial cells of the preputial gland showed aberrant eosinophilic staining in histology and premature degradation of nuclear DNA during terminal differentiation. Taken together, the results of this study suggest that autophagy is dispensable for the suppression of autoimmunity by thymic epithelial cells but essential for normal differentiation of the preputial gland in mice.

  16. Final report of key comparison AFRIMETS.AUV.A-K5: primary pressure calibration of LS1P microphones according to IEC 61094-2, over the frequency range 2 Hz to 10 kHz.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nel, R.; Avison, J.; Harris, P.; Blabla, M.; Hämäläinen, J.

    2017-01-01

    The degrees of equivalence of the AFRIMETS.AUV.A-K5 regional key comparison are reported here as the final report. The scope of the comparison covered the complex pressure sensitivities of two LS1P microphones over the frequency range 2 Hz to 10 kHz in accordance with IEC 61094-2: 2009. Four national metrology institutes from two different regional metrology organisations participated in the comparison. Two LS1P microphones were circulated simultaneously to all the participants in a circular configuration. One of the microphones sensitivity shifted and all results associated with this microphone were subsequently excluded from further analysis and linking. The AFRIMETS.AUV.A-K5 comparison results were linked to the CCAUV.A-K5 comparison results via dual participation in the CCAUV.A-K5 and AFRIMETS.AUV.A-K5 comparisons. The degrees of equivalence, linked to the CCAUV.A-K5 comparison, were calculated for all participants of this comparison. Main text To reach the main text of this paper, click on Final Report. Note that this text is that which appears in Appendix B of the BIPM key comparison database kcdb.bipm.org/. The final report has been peer-reviewed and approved for publication by the CCAUV, according to the provisions of the CIPM Mutual Recognition Arrangement (CIPM MRA).

  17. Confidence Estimation in Structured Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Mejer, Avihai

    2011-01-01

    Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled wor...

  18. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  19. APPLICATION OF ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy S. Ayzatullen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The socio-economic category of “trust” is studied in the article. The analysis of the existing views about the term “trust” was conducted. A model of the interaction of “Power - Business - People”, using the concept of “trust”, was made. The application and the structure of confidence estimations in economy and politics are studied. The accumulated experience of application of confidence estimations in the macroeconomics of the major countries of the world was showed. The current weaknesses of the confidence indexes are reflected.

  20. Confidence and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Sylvain Leduc

    2010-01-01

    The idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a...

  1. Regaining confidence in confidence intervals for the mean treatment effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Thomas W

    2014-09-28

    In many experiments, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment by comparing the responses of two groups of subjects. This evaluation is often performed by using a confidence interval for the difference between the population means. To compute the limits of this confidence interval, researchers usually use the pooled t formulas, which are derived by assuming normally distributed errors. When the normality assumption does not seem reasonable, the researcher may have little confidence in the confidence interval because the actual one-sided coverage probability may not be close to the nominal coverage probability. This problem can be avoided by using the Robbins-Monro iterative search method to calculate the limits. One problem with this iterative procedure is that it is not clear when the procedure produces a sufficiently accurate estimate of a limit. In this paper, we describe a multiple search method that allows the user to specify the accuracy of the limits. We also give guidance concerning the number of iterations that would typically be needed to achieve a specified accuracy. This multiple iterative search method will produce limits for one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals that maintain their coverage probabilities with non-normal distributions.

  2. Final report on COOMET.M.M-K5: Key comparison in the field of multiples and submultiples of the kilogram (COOMET 258/RU/02)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snegov, V. S.

    2014-01-01

    This report summarizes the results of a comparison of mass standards conducted between four participating members of the Euro-Asian Cooperation of National metrological Institutes (COOMET). The COOMET key comparisons are usually carried out on those schemes that were proposed and implemented by the Consultative Committee for Mass and Related Quantities of the CIPM. Measurement comparisons bring to the laboratories confidence in the measurement standards and lead to their international acceptance. This comparison arose from discussions at the 9th meeting of TC 1.6 'Mass and Related Quantities' on 21-23 April 2004, SMU, Slovakia. The comparison is internally identified as COOMET 258/RU/02 and corresponds to the KCDB identifier COOMET.M.M-K5, as attributed by the BIPM. The purpose of the key comparison COOMET.M.M-K5 'Comparison in the field of multiples and submultiples of the kilogram' is to compare the results of measurements obtained by the participants. Two weights sets with five nominal mass values 2 kg, 200 g, 50 g, 1 g and 200 mg (OIML Class E1) were used as transfer standards. These nominal values were chosen to follow the second phase of the CCM key comparison CCM.M-K5. The All-Russian D I Mendeleyev Research Institute for Metrology, VNIIM, was the pilot laboratory as well as the linking laboratory to CCM.M-K5. The comparison was carried out from May 2015 to July 2008. In 2007, measurements were carried out by Kazakhstan Institute of Metrology (RSE 'KazInMetr') on their own initiative. The computation of the degrees of equivalence shows a generally good agreement between participants. Main text. To reach the main text of this paper, click on Final Report. Note that this text is that which appears in Appendix B of the BIPM key comparison database kcdb.bipm.org/. The final report has been peer-reviewed and approved for publication by the CCM, according to the provisions of the CIPM Mutual Recognition Arrangement (CIPM MRA).

  3. Engineering Computer Games: A Parallel Learning Opportunity for Undergraduate Engineering and Primary (K-5 Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Michael Budnik

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present how our College of Engineering is developing a growing portfolio of engineering computer games as a parallel learning opportunity for undergraduate engineering and primary (grade K-5 students. Around the world, many schools provide secondary students (grade 6-12 with opportunities to pursue pre-engineering classes. However, by the time students reach this age, many of them have already determined their educational goals and preferred careers. Our College of Engineering is developing resources to provide primary students, still in their educational formative years, with opportunities to learn more about engineering. One of these resources is a library of engineering games targeted to the primary student population. The games are designed by sophomore students in our College of Engineering. During their Introduction to Computational Techniques course, the students use the LabVIEW environment to develop the games. This software provides a wealth of design resources for the novice programmer; using it to develop the games strengthens the undergraduates

  4. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  5. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  6. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  7. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  8. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Hoekstra, Rink; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Lee, Michael D.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2016-01-01

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  9. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, R.D.; Hoekstra, R.; Rouder, J.N.; Lee, M.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  10. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  11. Feature Augmentation for Learning Confidence Measure in Stereo Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunok; Min, Dongbo; Kim, Seungryong; Sohn, Kwanghoon

    2017-09-08

    Confidence estimation is essential for refining stereo matching results through a post-processing step. This problem has recently been studied using a learning-based approach, which demonstrates a substantial improvement on conventional simple non-learning based methods. However, the formulation of learning-based methods that individually estimates the confidence of each pixel disregards spatial coherency that might exist in the confidence map, thus providing a limited performance under challenging conditions. Our key observation is that the confidence features and resulting confidence maps are smoothly varying in the spatial domain, and highly correlated within the local regions of an image. We present a new approach that imposes spatial consistency on the confidence estimation. Specifically, a set of robust confidence features is extracted from each superpixel decomposed using the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and then these features are concatenated with pixel-level confidence features. The features are then enhanced through adaptive filtering in the feature domain. In addition, the resulting confidence map, estimated using the confidence features with a random regression forest, is further improved through K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) based aggregation scheme on both pixel-and superpixel-level. To validate the proposed confidence estimation scheme, we employ cost modulation or ground control points (GCPs) based optimization in stereo matching. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on various benchmarks including challenging outdoor scenes.

  12. Survivability of Psychrobacter cryohalolentis K5 Under Simulated Martian Surface Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David J.; Schuerger, Andrew C.; Davidson, Mark M.; Pacala, Stephen W.; Bakermans, Corien; Onstott, Tullis C.

    2009-03-01

    Spacecraft launched to Mars can retain viable terrestrial microorganisms on board that may survive the interplanetary transit. Such biota might compromise the search for life beyond Earth if capable of propagating on Mars. The current study explored the survivability of Psychrobacter cryohalolentis K5, a psychrotolerant microorganism obtained from a Siberian permafrost cryopeg, under simulated martian surface conditions of high ultraviolet irradiation, high desiccation, low temperature, and low atmospheric pressure. First, a desiccation experiment compared the survival of P. cryohalolentis cells embedded, or not embedded, within a medium/salt matrix (MSM) maintained at 25°C for 24 h within a laminar flow hood. Results indicate that the presence of the MSM enhanced survival of the bacterial cells by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude. Second, tests were conducted in a Mars Simulation Chamber to determine the UV tolerance of the microorganism. No viable vegetative cells of P. cryohalolentis were detected after 8 h of exposure to Mars-normal conditions of 4.55 W/m2 UVC irradiation (200-280 nm), -12.5°C, 7.1 mbar, and a Mars gas mix composed of CO2 (95.3%), N2 (2.7%), Ar (1.6%), O2 (0.2%), and H2O (0.03%). Third, an experiment was conducted within the Mars chamber in which total atmospheric opacities were simulated at τ = 0.1 (dust-free CO2 atmosphere at 7.1 mbar), 0.5 (normal clear sky with 0.4 = dust opacity and 0.1 = CO2-only opacity), and 3.5 (global dust storm) to determine the survivability of P. cryohalolentis to partially shielded UVC radiation. The survivability of the bacterium increased with the level of UVC attenuation, though population levels still declined several orders of magnitude compared to UVC-absent controls over an 8 h exposure period.

  13. An unexpected oxidation: NaK5Cl2(S2O6)2 revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, William T. A.; Plater, M. John

    2017-01-01

    The title compound, NaK5Cl2(S2O6)2 [systematic name: sodium penta­potassium dichloride bis­(di­thio­nate)], arose as an unexpected product from an organic synthesis that used di­thio­nite (S2O4 2−) ions as a reducing agent to destroy excess permanganate ions. Compared to the previous study [Stanley (1953 ▸). Acta Cryst. 6, 187–196], the present tetra­gonal structure exhibits a root 2a × root 2a × c super-cell due to subtle changes in the orientations of the di­thio­nate anions. The structure can be visualized as a three-dimensional framework of [001] columns of alternating trans-NaO4Cl2 and KO4Cl2 octa­hedra cross-linked by the di­thio­nate ions with the inter­stices occupied by KO6Cl2 polyhedra to generate a densely packed three-dimensional framework. The asymmetric unit comprises two sodium ions (site symmetries 4 and -4, four potassium ions (site symmetries = -4, 4, 1 and 1), three chloride ions (site symmetries = 4, 4 and 2) and two half-di­thio­nate ions (all atoms on general positions). Both di­thio­nate ions are completed by crystallographic inversion symmetry. The crystal chosen for data collection was found to be rotationally twinned by 180° about the [100] axis in reciprocal space with a 0.6298 (13):0.3702 (13) domain ratio. PMID:28217339

  14. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  15. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, R.; Morey, R.D.; Rouder, J.N.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  16. Confidence leak in perceptual decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D’Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-01-01

    We live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that, to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a “continuity field” such that objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of our metacognitive representations. In three experiments we demonstrate a robust inter-task “confidence leak” that cannot be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Observers’ ability to modulate this confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in prefrontal cortex. PMID:26408037

  17. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  18. Self-Confidence & Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Bénabou, Roland; Tirole, Jean

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self-esteem and his social environment - in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self--confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering paymen...

  19. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  20. Moving the School and Dancing Education: Case Study Research of K-5 Students' Experiences in a Dance Residency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Alison E.

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation chronicles the qualitative case study of a dance artist-in-residence at a diverse and inclusive K-5 school in an urban district, integrating science, social studies, physical education, music, and visual arts school curriculum and culminating in two public performances. This study focused on how students made meaning through this…

  1. Confidence sets for network structure

    CERN Document Server

    Airoldi, Edoardo M; Wolfe, Patrick J

    2011-01-01

    Latent variable models are frequently used to identify structure in dichotomous network data, in part because they give rise to a Bernoulli product likelihood that is both well understood and consistent with the notion of exchangeable random graphs. In this article we propose conservative confidence sets that hold with respect to these underlying Bernoulli parameters as a function of any given partition of network nodes, enabling us to assess estimates of 'residual' network structure, that is, structure that cannot be explained by known covariates and thus cannot be easily verified by manual inspection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing student friendship networks from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health that include race, gender, and school year as covariates. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm to fit a logistic regression model that includes these explanatory variables as well as a latent stochastic blockmodel component and additional node-specific...

  2. The Atmospheric Dynamics of Alpha Tau (K5 III) -- Clues to Understanding the Magnetic Dynamo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter Kenneth G.

    2008-01-01

    Using HST/GHRS, HST/STIS and FUSE archival data for (alpha) Tau and the CHIANTI spectroscopic code, we have derived line shifts, volumetric emission measures, and plasma density estimates, and calculated filling factors for a number of UV lines forming between 10,000 K and 300,000 K in the outer atmosphere of this red giant star. The data suggest the presence of low-temperature extended regions and high-temperature compact regions, associated with magnetically open and closed structures in the stellar atmosphere, respectively. The signatures of UV lines from Alpha Tau can be consistently understood via a model of upward-traveling Alfven waves in a gravitationally stratified atmosphere. These wakes cause non-thermal broadening in UV lines due to unresolved wave motions and downward plasma motions in compact magnetic loops heated by resonant .4lf\\en wave heating. We discuss implications of this interpretation for understanding the nature of magnetic dynamos operating in late-type giants.

  3. K5/K14-positive cells contribute to salivary gland-like breast tumors with myoepithelial differentiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boecker, Werner; Stenman, Goeran; Loening, Thomas; Andersson, Mattias K; Bankfalvi, Agnes; von Holstein, Sarah; Heegaard, Steffen; Lange, Alina; Berg, Tobias; Samoilova, Vera; Tiemann, Katharina; Buchwalow, Igor

    2013-08-01

    Salivary gland-like tumors of the breast show a great variety of architectural patterns and cellular differentiations such as glandular, myoepithelial, squamous, and even mesenchymal phenotypes. However, currently little is known about the evolution and cellular differentiation of these tumors. For that reason, we performed an in situ triple immunofluorescence lineage/differentiation tracing (isTILT) and qRT-PCR study of basal (K5/K14), glandular (K7/K8/18), and epidermal-specific squamous (K10) keratins, p63, and smooth muscle actin (SMA; myoepithelial marker) with the aim to construct and trace different cell lineages and define their cellular hierarchy in tumors with myoepithelial differentiation. isTILT analysis of a series of 28 breast, salivary, and lacrimal gland tumors, including pleomorphic adenomas (n=8), epithelial-myoepithelial tumors (n=9), and adenoid cystic carcinomas (n=11) revealed that all tumor types contained K5/K14-positive progenitor cells in varying frequencies from a few percent up to 15%. These K5/K14-positive tumor cells were found to differentiate to glandular- (K8/18-positive) and myoepithelial-lineage (SMA-positive)-specific cells and were also shown to generate various heterologeous cell differentiations such as squamous and mesenchymal progenies. p63 was co-expressed with K5/K14 in basal-like progenitor cells, myoepithelial, and squamous cells but not in glandular cells. Our results show that the corresponding counterpart tumors of breast and salivary/lacrimal glands have identical cellular compositions. Taken together, our isTILT and RNA-expression data indicate that look-alike tumors of the breast represent a special subgroup of basal-type tumors with benign or usually low malignant potential.

  4. The Asteroid Identification Problem. II. Target Plane Confidence Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.

    1999-08-01

    The nominal orbit solution for an asteroid/comet resulting from a least squares fit to astrometric observations is surrounded by a region containing solutions equally compatible with the data, the confidence region. If the observed arc is not too short, and for an epoch close to the observations, the confidence region in the six-dimensional space of orbital elements is well approximated by an ellipsoid. This uncertainty of the orbital elements maps to a position uncertainty at close approach, which can be represented on a Modified Target Plane (MTP), a modification of the one used by Öpik. The MTP is orthogonal to the geocentric velocity at the closest approach point along the nominal orbit. In the linear approximation, the confidence ellipsoids are mapped on the MTP into concentric ellipses, computed by solving the variational equation. For an object observed at only one opposition, however, if the close approach is expected after many revolutions, the ellipses on the MTP become extremely elongated, therefore the linear approximation may fail, and the confidence boundaries on the MTP, by definition the nonlinear images of the confidence ellipsoids, may not be well approximated by the ellipses. In theory the Monte Carlo method by Muinonen and Bowell (1993, Icarus104, 255-279) can be used to compute the nonlinear confidence boundaries, but in practice the computational load is very heavy. We propose a new method to compute semilinear confidence boundaries on the MTP, based on the theory developed by Milani (1999, Icarus137, 269-292) to efficiently compute confidence boundaries for predicted observations. This method is a reasonable compromise between reliability and computational load, and can be used for real time risk assessment. These arguments can be applied to any small body approaching any planet, but in the case of a potentially hazardous object (PHO), either an asteroid or a comet whose orbit comes very close to that of the Earth, the application is most

  5. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  6. Computational Experience with Confidence Regions and Confidence Intervals for Nonlinear Least Squares.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-05-01

    first generated the errors and response variables. The errors, i, were produced using the Marsaglia and Tsang pseudo-normal ran- dom number algorithm...34Asymptotic properties of non-linear least squares estimators," The Annals of Mathematical Statistici, 40(2), pp. 633-643. Marsaglia , G., Tsang, W

  7. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  8. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  9. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations.

  10. Status and Confidence, in the Lab

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey V. Butler

    2009-01-01

    It is widely recognized that confidence can have important economic consequences. While most of the focus has been on overconfidence, systematic variation in confidence can imply systematic variation in economic outcomes. Intriguingly, sociological and social psychological research suggests that being on the wrong side of inequality undermines confidence. This paper examines the link between inequality and confidence in a controlled, incentive-compatible laboratory setting. Inequality was int...

  11. A Confidence Paradigm for Classification Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    M.U. Thomas Date Dean, Graduate School of Engineering and Management Table of Contents Page List of Figures...Plato, Aristotle, Plotinus, St Augustine, St Aquinas , Machi- avelli, Descartes, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Kant, Marx, Mill, Confucius) discuss having...independence, and aggregation of confidence is a linear summation of individual confidence values. Thomas and Allcock [61] develop a statistical confidence

  12. Linguistic Weighted Aggregation under Confidence Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chonghui Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop some new linguistic aggregation operators based on confidence levels. Firstly, we introduce the confidence linguistic weighted averaging (CLWA operator and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CLOWA operator. These two new linguistic aggregation operators are able to consider the confidence level of the aggregated arguments provided by the information providers. We also study some of their properties. Then, based on the generalized means, we introduce the confidence generalized linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CGLOWA operator. The main advantage of the CGLOWA operator is that it includes a wide range of special cases such as the CLOWA operator, the confidence linguistic ordered weighted quadratic averaging (CLOWQA operator, and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted geometric (CLOWG operator. Finally, we develop an application of the new approach in a multicriteria decision-making under linguistic environment and illustrate it with a numerical example.

  13. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low....... Consumer confidence and the output gap are also highly positively correlated. In fact, we find that consumer confidence does not contain independent information (i.e. information over and above that contained by the output gap) about expected returns. Our use of European data allows us to examine both...... aggregate European and local-country data on consumer confidence and output gaps. We find that even local-country consumer confidence does not contain independent information about expected returns. Our findings have asset pricing implication: We show taht the cross-country distribution of expected returns...

  14. Preparation and antioxidant activities of a sulfated derivative of exopolysaccharide from Escherichia coil K5%Escherichia coli K5胞外多糖硫酸酯衍生物的制备及其体外抗氧化活性研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王华; 徐静静; 曹凤; 陈敬华

    2012-01-01

    对Escherichia coliK5菌株进行发酵培养,发酵液上清经超滤、醇沉、Sevage法脱蛋白、透析冻干,再经DEAE琼脂糖柱、G75葡聚糖柱分离纯化后得到K5多糖(K5)。以三氧化硫吡啶为硫酸酯化剂,对K5多糖N位进行了硫酸酯化,制备了K5多糖的硫酸酯衍生物(NS-K5),二糖分析结果显示,N位硫酸酯化率达到57%。并对硫酸酯化前后的K5多糖的抗氧化性能进行了研究,结果显示,一定浓度范围内,NS-K5多糖还原力较K5高,当K5和NS-K5浓度达到1mg/mL时,对羟基自由基的清除率分别达到17.7%、25.6%,对DPPH自由基的清除率分别达到26.1%、45%。实验结果表明,NS-K5的抗氧化活性要高于K5。%Escherichia coil K5 strain was cultivated by fermentation,the supernatant was treated by ultrafiltration, exopolysaccharide(EPS) was extracted by ethanol precipitation,and then purified by Sevage method,dialysis, freeze-dried, DEAE-Sepharose and Sephadex G-75 column,finally high-purity K5 polysaccharide(K5) was obtained. N site of the K5 polysaccharide was chemically sulfated by Sulfur trioxide pyridine complex,NS-K5 polysaccharide(NS-K5) was prepared,and disaccharide analysis revealed that N-sulfation rate was up to 57%. The antioxidant capacity of K5 polysaccharideand N-sulfated K5 polysaccharide was investigated,the results showed that within a certain concentration range,the reducing activity of NS-K5 was powerful over K5, when the concentration of K5 and NS-K5 was up to lmg/mL,the hydroxyl radical scavenging rates were 17.7% ,25.6% ,and DPPH radical scavenging rates were 26.1% ,45% ,respectively. The result indicated that NS-K5 showed stronger antioxidant activity than K5.

  15. Intelligence, Self-confidence and Entrepreneurship

    OpenAIRE

    Asoni, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    I investigate the effect of human capital on entrepreneurship using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth - 1979. I find that individuals with higher measured intelligence and self-confidence are more likely to be entrepreneurs. Furthermore I present evidence suggesting that intelligence and self-confidence affect business ownership through two different channels: intelligence increases business survival while self-confidence increases business creation. Finally, once we control for intel...

  16. Confidence Intervals from One One Observation

    CERN Document Server

    Rodriguez, Carlos C

    2008-01-01

    Robert Machol's surprising result, that from a single observation it is possible to have finite length confidence intervals for the parameters of location-scale models, is re-produced and extended. Two previously unpublished modifications are included. First, Herbert Robbins nonparametric confidence interval is obtained. Second, I introduce a technique for obtaining confidence intervals for the scale parameter of finite length in the logarithmic metric. Keywords: Theory/Foundations , Estimation, Prior Distributions, Non-parametrics & Semi-parametrics Geometry of Inference, Confidence Intervals, Location-Scale models

  17. A model for developing disability confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Sally; Cancelliere, Sara

    2017-05-15

    Many clinicians, educators, and employers lack disability confidence which can affect their interactions with, and inclusion of people with disabilities. Our objective was to explore how disability confidence developed among youth who volunteered with children who have a disability. We conducted 30 in-depth interviews (16 without a disability, 14 with disabilities), with youth aged 15-25. We analyzed our data using an interpretive, qualitative, thematic approach. We identified four main themes that led to the progression of disability confidence including: (1) "disability discomfort," referring to lacking knowledge about disability and experiencing unease around people with disabilities; (2) "reaching beyond comfort zone" where participants increased their understanding of disability and became sensitized to difference; (3) "broadened perspectives" where youth gained exposure to people with disabilities and challenged common misperceptions and stereotypes; and (4) "disability confidence" which includes having knowledge of people with disabilities, inclusive, and positive attitudes towards them. Volunteering is one way that can help to develop disability confidence. Youth with and without disabilities both reported a similar process of developing disability confidence; however, there were nuances between the two groups. Implications for Rehabilitation The development of disability confidence is important for enhancing the social inclusion of people with disabilities. Volunteering with people who have a disability, or a disability different from their own, can help to develop disability confidence which involves positive attitudes, empathy, and appropriate communication skills. Clinicians, educators, and employers should consider promoting working with disabled people through such avenues as volunteering or service learning to gain disability confidence.

  18. Predictions Shape Confidence in Right Inferior Frontal Gyrus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Maxine T; Seth, Anil K; Kanai, Ryota

    2016-10-05

    It is clear that prior expectations shape perceptual decision-making, yet their contribution to the construction of subjective decision confidence remains largely unexplored. We recorded fMRI data while participants made perceptual decisions and confidence judgments, manipulating perceptual prior expectations while controlling for potential confounds of attention. Results show that subjective confidence increases as expectations increasingly support the decision, and that this relationship is associated with BOLD activity in right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG). Specifically, rIFG is sensitive to the discrepancy between expectation and decision (mismatch), and higher mismatch responses are associated with lower decision confidence. Connectivity analyses revealed expectancy information to be represented in bilateral orbitofrontal cortex and sensory signals to be represented in intracalcarine sulcus. Together, our results indicate that predictive information is integrated into subjective confidence in rIFG, and reveal an occipital-frontal network that constructs confidence from top-down and bottom-up signals. This interpretation was further supported by exploratory findings that the white matter density of right orbitofrontal cortex negatively predicted its respective contribution to the construction of confidence. Our findings advance our understanding of the neural basis of subjective perceptual processes by revealing an occipitofrontal functional network that integrates prior beliefs into the construction of confidence. Perceptual decision-making is typically conceived as an integration of bottom-up and top-down influences. However, perceptual decisions are accompanied by a sense of confidence. Confidence is an important facet of perceptual consciousness yet remains poorly understood. Here we implicate right inferior frontal gyrus in constructing confidence from the discrepancy between perceptual judgment and its prior probability. Furthermore, we place right

  19. K5/K14-positive cells contribute to salivary gland-like breast tumors with myoepithelial differentiation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boecker, Werner; Stenman, Goeran; Loening, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Salivary gland-like tumors of the breast show a great variety of architectural patterns and cellular differentiations such as glandular, myoepithelial, squamous, and even mesenchymal phenotypes. However, currently little is known about the evolution and cellular differentiation of these tumors....... For that reason, we performed an in situ triple immunofluorescence lineage/differentiation tracing (isTILT) and qRT-PCR study of basal (K5/K14), glandular (K7/K8/18), and epidermal-specific squamous (K10) keratins, p63, and smooth muscle actin (SMA; myoepithelial marker) with the aim to construct and trace...... different cell lineages and define their cellular hierarchy in tumors with myoepithelial differentiation. isTILT analysis of a series of 28 breast, salivary, and lacrimal gland tumors, including pleomorphic adenomas (n=8), epithelial-myoepithelial tumors (n=9), and adenoid cystic carcinomas (n=11) revealed...

  20. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

  1. 图K(5m,5)的自同态的自同态谱%On the Andomorphism Spectrum of K(5m,5)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    余鋆

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we obtain that Aut(K(5m, 5)) ≈D5m,sEnd(k(5m, 5))=Aut(k(5m, 5) and End(K(5m,5)) =qEnd(K(5m, 5)), where Ds. is the dihedral group of order 5m. Furthermore, we solve some enumerative problems of End(K(5m, 5)), and give the endomorphism spectrum of k(5m, 5).%从循环完全图K(5m,5)的结构出发,得到Aut(K(5m,5))≈D5m,其中D5m是5m阶的二面体群,sEnd(k(5m,5))=Aut(k(5m,5),End(K(5m,5))=qEnd(K(5m,5))。同时也解决了End(K(5m,5))的一些记数问题,给出了此类图的自同态谱。

  2. 75 FR 81037 - Waste Confidence Decision Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 Waste Confidence Decision Update AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Update and final revision of Waste Confidence Decision. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission... update to the Decision were products of rulemaking proceedings designed to assess the degree of...

  3. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Oshins

    2014-01-01

    Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  4. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  5. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the trea

  6. Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches

  7. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the

  8. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  9. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  10. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  11. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  12. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  13. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  14. Lower confidence limits for structure reliability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Jiading; LI Ji

    2006-01-01

    For a class of data often arising in engineering,we have developed an approach to compute the lower confidence limit for structure reliability with a given confidence level.Especially,in a case with no failure and a case with only one failure,the concrete computational methods are presented.

  15. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  16. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  17. The computation of Buehler confidence limits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG; Xiangzhong; CHEN; Jiading

    2005-01-01

    In medicine and industry, small sample size often arises owing to the high test cost. Then exact confidence inference is important. Buehler confidence limit is a kind of exact confidence limit for the function of parameters in a model. It can be always defined if the order in sample space is given. But the computing problem is often difficult, especially for the cases with high dimension parameter or with incomplete data. This paper presents an algorithm to compute the Buehler confidence limits by EM algorithm. This is the firsttime usage of EM algorithm on Buehler confidence limits, but the algorithm is often used for maximum likelihood estimate in literatures. Three computation examples are given to illustrate the method.

  18. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Confidence intervals for the MMPI-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munley, P H

    1991-08-01

    The confidence intervals for the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI-2) clinical scales were investigated. Based on the clinical scale reliabilities published in the MMPI-2 manual, estimated true scores, standard errors of measurement for estimated true scores, and 95% confidence intervals centered around estimated true scores were calculated at 5-point MMPI-2 T-score intervals. The relationships between obtained T-scores, estimated true T-scores, scale reliabilities, and confidence intervals are discussed. The possible role of error measurement in defining scale high point and code types is noted.

  20. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...... of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health...

  1. Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data

    OpenAIRE

    Lachowska, Marta

    2013-01-01

    The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer confidence contains information relevant to predicting spending, independent from other indicators. T...

  2. Confidence and Construal Framing: When Confidence Increases versus Decreases Information Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Echo Wen Wan; Derek D. Rucker

    2013-01-01

    A large literature demonstrates that people process information more carefully in states of low compared to high confidence. This article presents an alternative hypothesis that either high or low confidence can increase or decrease information processing on the basis of how information is construed. Five experiments demonstrate two sets of findings supporting this alternative formulation. First, low confidence leads people to focus on concrete construals, whereas high confidence leads people...

  3. The Epstein-Barr Virus-encoded miR-BART22 targets MAP3K5 to promote host cell proliferative and invasive abilities in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ruichao; Zhang, Minfeng; Li, Qiulian; Xiong, Hanzhen; Liu, Shaoyan; Fang, Weiyi; Zhang, Qianbing; Liu, Zhen; Xu, Xuehu; Jiang, Qingping

    2017-01-01

    miR-BART22, a new discovered Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) miRNA, is abundant in Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). It has been reported that miR-BART22 promoted the tumor development by down-modulating EBV LMP2 expression to evade the host immune response. But its cell target genes have still been obscure. We have reported an inverse correlation between the BART-22 and MAP3K5 protein expression in NPC tissues and NPC cell lines. Meanwhile, MAP3K5 protein expression level was significantly decreased in primary NPC tissues compared with nasopharyngitis when MAP3K5 mRNA expression was consistent in two group tissues. According to our data and target prediction by miRnada, we assume MAP3K5 is an important target gene of NPC. MAP3K5, also named apoptosis signal-regulating kinase1 (ASK1), is an important early answer gene in P38MAPK pathway and an apoptosis-related gene. In present study, MAP3K5 was verified the target gene of miR-BART22 by luciferase assay. miRBART-22 decreased MAP3K5 protein level. Moreover, it also decreased MAP3K5 downstream gene MAP2K4 expression in P38MAPK pathway, and even their activated phosphorylation forms. Additionally, we found stable transfection of miR-BAT22 could improve tumor cells' proliferative and invasive abilities in NPC cell line 5-8F. The data highlight the role of the EBV miR-BART22 in regulating genes involving in apoptosis and some important pathways to promote cancer development. And it also raises the possibility that inhibitors of miR-BART22 can be as a therapeutic strategy for NPC and other EBV-infected tumors treatment. PMID:28243335

  4. Characterization of a cold-active lipase from Psychrobacter cryohalolentis K5(T) and its deletion mutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novototskaya-Vlasova, K A; Petrovskaya, L E; Rivkina, E M; Dolgikh, D A; Kirpichnikov, M P

    2013-04-01

    A gene coding for cold-active lipase from the psychrotrophic Gram-negative bacterium Psychrobacter cryohalolentis K5(T) isolated from a Siberian cryopeg has been cloned and expressed in Escherichia coli. The recombinant protein Lip1Pc with a 6× histidine tag at its C-terminus was purified by nickel affinity chromatography. With p-nitrophenyl dodecanoate (C12) as a substrate, the purified recombinant protein displayed maximum lipolytic activity at 25°C and pH 8.0. Increasing the temperature above 40°C and addition of various metal ions and organic solvents inhibited the enzymatic activity of Lip1Pc. Most nonionic detergents, such as Triton X-100 and Tween 20, slightly increased the lipase activity, while SDS completely inhibited it. To investigate the functional significance of the Lip1Pc N-terminal domain, we constructed five deletion mutants of this protein. The ND1 and ND2 mutants displayed specific activity reduced by 30-35%, while other truncated proteins were completely inactive. Both mutants demonstrated increased activity towards p-nitrophenyl decanoate (C10) and impaired utilization of C16 substrate. Although optimum reaction temperature of ND2 lowered to 20°C, it displayed enhanced stability by 44% after incubation at 40°C. The results prove that the N-terminal domain of Lip1Pc has a fundamental impact on the activity and stability of the protein.

  5. Expression and chaperone-assisted refolding of a new cold-active lipase from Psychrobacter cryohalolentis K5(T).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novototskaya-Vlasova, Ksenia; Petrovskaya, Lada; Kryukova, Elena; Rivkina, Elizaveta; Dolgikh, Dmitry; Kirpichnikov, Mikhail

    2013-09-01

    We describe cloning and expression of genes coding for lipase Lip2Pc and lipase-specific foldase LifPc from a psychrotrophic microorganism Psychrobacter cryohalolentis K5(T) isolated from a Siberian cryopeg (the lense of overcooled brine within permafrost). Upon expression in Escherichiacoli Lip2Pc accumulated in inclusion bodies while chaperone was synthesized in a soluble form. An efficient protocol for solubilization and subsequent refolding of the recombinant lipase in the presence of the truncated chaperone was developed. Using this procedure Lip2Pc with specific activity of 6900U/mg was obtained. Contrary to published data on other lipase-chaperone complexes, refolded Lip2Pc was mostly recovered from the complex with chaperone by metal-affinity chromatography. Recombinant Lip2Pc displayed maximum lipolytic activity at 25°C and pH 8.0 with p-nitrophenyl palmitate (C16) as a substrate. Activity assays conducted at different temperatures revealed that the recombinant Lip2Pc is a cold-adapted lipase with ability to utilize substrates with long (C10-C16) hydrocarbon chains in the temperature range from +5 to +65°C. It demonstrated relatively high stability at temperatures above 60°C and in the presence of various metal ions or organic solvents (ethanol, methanol, etc.). Non-ionic detergents, such as Triton X-100 and Tween 20 decreased Lip2Pc activity and SDS completely inhibited it.

  6. Probing M subdwarf metallicity with an esdK5+esdM5.5 binary

    CERN Document Server

    Pavlenko, Ya V; Gálvez-Ortiz, M C; Kushniruk, I O; Jones, H R A

    2015-01-01

    We present a spectral analysis of the binary G 224-58 AB that consists of the coolest M extreme subdwarf (esdM5.5) and a brighter primary (esdK5). This binary may serve as a benchmark for metallicity measurement calibrations and as a test-bed for atmospheric and evolutionary models for esdM objects. We determine abundances primarily using high resolution optical spectra of the primary. Other parameters were determined from the fits of synthetic spectra computed with these abundances to the observed spectra from 0.4 to 2.5 microns for both components. We determine \\Tef =4625 $\\pm$ 100 K, \\logg = 4.5 $\\pm$ 0.5 for the A component and \\Tef = 3200 $\\pm$ 100 K, \\logg = 5.0 $\\pm$ 0.5, for the B component. We obtained abundances of [Mg/H]=$-$1.51$\\pm$0.08, [Ca/H]=$-$1.39$\\pm$0.03, [Ti/H]=$-$1.37$\\pm$0.03 for alpha group elements and [CrH]=$-$1.88$\\pm$0.07, [Mn/H]=$-$1.96$\\pm$0.06, [Fe/H]=$-$1.92$\\pm$0.02, [Ni/H]=$-$1.81$\\pm$0.05 and [Ba/H]W=$-$1.87$\\pm$0.11 for iron group elements from fits to the spectral lines obs...

  7. European Businesses Remain Confident about China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ On June 30th, 2009, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey, which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

  8. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  9. Confidence intervals with a priori parameter bounds

    CERN Document Server

    Lokhov, A V

    2014-01-01

    We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution of the problem. Derived are the solutions for the cases of a continuous distribution with non-negative estimated parameter and a discrete distribution, specifically a Poisson process with background. For both cases, the best upper limit is constructed that accounts for the a priori information. A table is provided with the confidence intervals for the parameter of Poisson distribution that correctly accounts for the information on the known value of the background along with the software for calculating the confidence intervals for any confidence levels and magnitudes of the background (the software is freely available for download via Internet).

  10. When business is a confidence game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, J W; Alba, J W

    2001-06-01

    When it comes to making business decisions, being overconfident about your choices can actually be more harmful than just guessing. Here's how managers can calibrate their confidence levels-and avoid being too sure in the wrong situations.

  11. Discussion for the Innovation of Automatic Welding Practice Education Based on K5 Demonstrate Education Method%基于K5示教法的自动化焊接实践教学改革初探

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曲芳; 沈斌; 岳旭东; 刘存宪; 海波; 高路

    2016-01-01

    在自动化焊接的学生实践教学环节中,学校需投入大量的人力、物力和财力,以保障实践教学工作的有序进行。然而,部分高校由于受到各方面条件的限制,不得不减少或取消实践教学环节,这对于提高学生的实践动手能力造成了很大的阻碍。拟利用黑龙江科技大学实训中心现有设备:奥地利IGM公司的RTI330型自动化焊接机器人,针对该校材料学院焊接专业在校学生,采用K5示教器模拟实践操作环节,通过人机交互界面以示教的方法让学生更多地去感受实际焊接过程,使更多学生得到实践锻炼的机会,为自动化焊接实践环节节省了材料和设备。在整个教学环节中,既发挥了教师的主导作用,又体现了学生的认知主体作用,真正实现了产学一体化,学做合一,为用人单位培养出适应行业发展的应用型焊接人才。%In the segment of the students' automatic welding practice education, the universities need to investment in generous manpower, material and wealth in order to insure the practice education work to carry out smoothly. However, part of the universities are enslaved to the conditions in all direction, they have to reduce or cancel the segment of the practice education, this action creates impediment of enhancing the students’practice manipulative ability. We plan to use the existing automatic welding robot equipment of the center of training and practice in our university, which is from IGM company of Austria with the version of RTI330, focuses on the students whose major is welding of Material Science Institute, use K5 demonstrate education implement to simulation the segment of the practice manipulation, by means of human-computer interaction interface and the demonstrate education method to let the students to feel the reality welding process still more, get more chances of practice and save more materials and equipments for the

  12. Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction—the princi- ple (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in...eliminative induction. As first proposed by Francis Bacon [Schum 2001] and extended by L. Jonathan Cohen [Cohen 1970, 1977, 1989], eliminative induction is...eliminative in- duction—the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for

  13. Better Confidence Intervals for Importance Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    HALIS SAK; WOLFGANG HÖRMANN; JOSEF LEYDOLD

    2010-01-01

    It is well known that for highly skewed distributions the standard method of using the t statistic for the confidence interval of the mean does not give robust results. This is an important problem for importance sampling (IS) as its final distribution is often skewed due to a heavy tailed weight distribution. In this paper, we first explain Hall's transformation and its variants to correct the confidence interval of the mean and then evaluate the performance of these methods for two numerica...

  14. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  15. Confidence in value-based choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Fleming, Stephen M.; Garrett, Neil; Dolan, Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Summary Decisions are never perfect with confidence in one’s choices fluctuating over time. How subjective confidence and valuation of choice options interact at the level of brain and behavior is unknown. Using a dynamic model of the decision process we show that confidence reflects the evolution of a decision variable over time, explaining the observed relation between confidence, value, accuracy and reaction time. As predicted by our dynamic model, we show that an fMRI signal in human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) reflects both value comparison and confidence in the value comparison process. Crucially, individuals varied in how they related confidence to accuracy, allowing us to show that this introspective ability is predicted by a measure of functional connectivity between vmPFC and rostrolateral prefrontal cortex (rlPFC). Our findings provide a mechanistic link between noise in value comparison and metacognitive awareness of choice, enabling us both to want and to express knowledge of what we want. PMID:23222911

  16. The RING-CH ligase K5 antagonizes restriction of KSHV and HIV-1 particle release by mediating ubiquitin-dependent endosomal degradation of tetherin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Pardieu

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Tetherin (CD317/BST2 is an interferon-induced membrane protein that inhibits the release of diverse enveloped viral particles. Several mammalian viruses have evolved countermeasures that inactivate tetherin, with the prototype being the HIV-1 Vpu protein. Here we show that the human herpesvirus Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV is sensitive to tetherin restriction and its activity is counteracted by the KSHV encoded RING-CH E3 ubiquitin ligase K5. Tetherin expression in KSHV-infected cells inhibits viral particle release, as does depletion of K5 protein using RNA interference. K5 induces a species-specific downregulation of human tetherin from the cell surface followed by its endosomal degradation. We show that K5 targets a single lysine (K18 in the cytoplasmic tail of tetherin for ubiquitination, leading to relocalization of tetherin to CD63-positive endosomal compartments. Tetherin degradation is dependent on ESCRT-mediated endosomal sorting, but does not require a tyrosine-based sorting signal in the tetherin cytoplasmic tail. Importantly, we also show that the ability of K5 to substitute for Vpu in HIV-1 release is entirely dependent on K18 and the RING-CH domain of K5. By contrast, while Vpu induces ubiquitination of tetherin cytoplasmic tail lysine residues, mutation of these positions has no effect on its antagonism of tetherin function, and residual tetherin is associated with the trans-Golgi network (TGN in Vpu-expressing cells. Taken together our results demonstrate that K5 is a mechanistically distinct viral countermeasure to tetherin-mediated restriction, and that herpesvirus particle release is sensitive to this mode of antiviral inhibition.

  17. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  18. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  19. Independent Neural Computation of Value from Other People's Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell-Meiklejohn, Daniel; Simonsen, Arndis; Frith, Chris D; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2017-01-18

    Expectation of reward can be shaped by the observation of actions and expressions of other people in one's environment. A person's apparent confidence in the likely reward of an action, for instance, makes qualities of their evidence, not observed directly, socially accessible. This strategy is computationally distinguished from associative learning methods that rely on direct observation, by its use of inference from indirect evidence. In twenty-three healthy human subjects, we isolated effects of first-hand experience, other people's choices, and the mediating effect of their confidence, on decision-making and neural correlates of value within ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). Value derived from first-hand experience and other people's choices (regardless of confidence) were indiscriminately represented across vmPFC. However, value computed from agent choices weighted by their associated confidence was represented with specificity for ventromedial area 10. This pattern corresponds to shifts of connectivity and overlapping cognitive processes along a posterior-anterior vmPFC axis. Task behavior and self-reported self-reliance for decision-making in other social contexts correlated. The tendency to conform in other social contexts corresponded to increased activation in cortical regions previously shown to respond to social conflict in proportion to subsequent conformity (Campbell-Meiklejohn et al., 2010). The tendency to self-monitor predicted a selectively enhanced response to accordance with others in the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ). The findings anatomically decompose vmPFC value representations according to computational requirements and provide biological insight into the social transmission of preference and reassurance gained from the confidence of others. Decades of research have provided evidence that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) signals the satisfaction we expect from imminent actions. However, we have a surprisingly modest

  20. Maximum confidence measurements via probabilistic quantum cloning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Wen-Hai; Yu Long-Bao; Cao Zhuo-Liang; Ye Liu

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) cannot copy a set of linearly dependent quantum states.In this paper,we show that if incorrect copies are allowed to be produced,linearly dependent quantum states may also be cloned by the PQC.By exploiting this kind of PQC to clone a special set of three linearly dependent quantum states,we derive the upper bound of the maximum confidence measure of a set.An explicit transformation of the maximum confidence measure is presented.

  1. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

  2. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  3. Recombinant Escherichia coli K5 strain with the deletion of waaR gene decreases the molecular weight of the heparosan capsular polysaccharide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Haichan; Liu, Xiaobo; Lv, Shencong; Zhong, Weihong; Zhang, Fuming; Linhardt, Robert J

    2016-09-01

    Heparosan, the capsular polysaccharide of Escherichia coli K5 having a carbohydrate backbone similar to that of heparin, has become a potential precursor for bioengineering heparin. In the heparosan biosynthesis pathway, the gene waaR encoding α-1-, 2- glycosyltransferase catalyze s the third glucosyl residues linking to the oligosaccharide chain. In the present study, a waaR deletion mutant of E. coli K5 was constructed. The mutant showed improvement of capsule polysaccharide yield. It is interesting that the heparosan molecular weight of the mutant is reduced and may become more suitable as a precursor for the production of low molecular weight heparin derived from the wild-type K5 capsular polysaccharide.

  4. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  5. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  6. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs.

  7. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.M.W.J. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the action-b

  8. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on th

  9. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  10. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs. DESI

  11. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.

    2000-07-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  12. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    CERN Document Server

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J A

    2000-01-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  13. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  14. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  15. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence is a necessary condition for the development of emerging markets. Investors recognize that since market-oriented reform policies may be reversed or hindered, they face the risk of ex post policy changes with redistributive impact on investment returns. We argue that a sustained p

  16. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on

  17. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  18. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the

  19. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  20. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  1. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that

  2. You'd better think twice: post-decision perceptual confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilgenstock, Raphael; Weiss, Thomas; Witte, Otto W

    2014-10-01

    Current findings suggest that confidence emerges only after decision making. However, the temporal and neural dynamics of the emergence of post-decision confidence--a metacognitive judgement--are not fully explored. To gain insight into the dynamics of post-decision confidence processing and to disentangle the processes underlying confidence judgements and decision making, we applied a tactile discrimination task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Our results revealed that reaction times to post-decision confidence depend on the level of confidence, suggesting that post-decision confidence in a perceptual choice is not processed in parallel to perceptual decision making. Moreover, we demonstrated by the parametric analysis of fMRI data that post-decisionally modelled confidence processing can be distinguished from processes related to decision making through anatomical location and through the pattern of neural activity. In contrast to perceptual decision making, post-decision confidence appears to be strictly allocated to a prefrontal network of brain regions, primarily the anterior and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, areas that have been related to metacognition. Moreover, the processes underlying decision making and post-decision confidence may share recruitment of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, although the former probably has distinct functions with regard to processing of perceptual choices and post-decision confidence. Thus, this is the first fMRI study to disentangle the processes underlying post-decision confidence and decision making on behavioural, neuroanatomical, and neurofunctional levels. With regard to the temporal evolution of post-decision confidence, results of the present study provide strong support for the most recent theoretical models of human perceptual decision making, and thus provide implications for investigating confidence in perceptual paradigms.

  3. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  4. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  5. Likelihood based observability analysis and confidence intervals for predictions of dynamic models

    CERN Document Server

    Kreutz, Clemens; Timmer, Jens

    2011-01-01

    Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks such as Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) contain unknown parameters like the reaction rate constants and the initial concentrations of the compounds. The large number of parameters as well as their nonlinear impact on the model responses hamper the determination of confidence regions for parameter estimates. At the same time, classical approaches translating the uncertainty of the parameters into confidence intervals for model predictions are hardly feasible. In this article it is shown that a so-called prediction profile likelihood yields reliable confidence intervals for model predictions, despite arbitrarily complex and high-dimensional shapes of the confidence regions for the estimated parameters. Prediction confidence intervals of the dynamic states allow a data-based observability analysis. The approach renders the issue of sampling a high-dimensional parameter space into evaluating one-dimensional prediction spaces. The method is also applicable ...

  6. Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleicher, Robert E.

    2007-12-01

    This study examined changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge could not be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest there may be important connections between the 2 for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.

  7. ;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

    2017-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the ;degree of agreement.; Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

  8. Modeling Math Growth Trajectory--An Application of Conventional Growth Curve Model and Growth Mixture Model to ECLS K-5 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    To model students' math growth trajectory, three conventional growth curve models and three growth mixture models are applied to the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten-Fifth grade (ECLS K-5) dataset in this study. The results of conventional growth curve model show gender differences on math IRT scores. When holding socio-economic…

  9. Preparation, characterization and photocatalytic studies of Cu2+, Sn2+ and N3− substituted K5Sb5P2O20

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ch Sudhakar Reddy; Sreenu K; J R Reddy; A Hari Padmasri; Ravi Gundeboina; M Vithal

    2016-04-01

    Potassium antimony phosphates (K-Sb-P-O) exhibit different structural networks and therefore they were studied as photocatalysts in the present investigation. K5Sb5P2O20 was prepared by solid state method. Metal ions (Cu2+ and Sn2+), and non-metal anion, N3−, were substituted into the K5Sb5P2O20 for possible enhancement of photocatalytic activity. The precursor and substituted compounds were characterized by powder X-ray diffraction, FT-IR, SEM-EDS and UV-Vis diffuse reflectance spectra. Nitrogen substitution into K5Sb5P2O20 lattice was studied by O-N-H and XPS measurements. The photocatalytic activity of all the compounds was studied by degradation of methylene blue and methyl violet. The ion-substituted K5Sb5P2O20 have shown higher photocatalytic activity against both the dyes. The role of reactive intermediate species produced in the photocatalytic reaction was studied using their appropriate scavengers.

  10. Expanding the Role of K-5 Science Instruction in Educational Reform: Implications of an Interdisciplinary Model for Integrating Science and Reading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romance, Nancy R.; Vitale, Michael R.

    2012-01-01

    Addressed is the current practice in educational reform of reducing time for science instruction in favor of traditional reading/language arts instruction. In contrast, presented is an evidence-based rationale for increasing instructional time for K-5 science instruction as an educational reform initiative. Overviewed are consensus…

  11. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    OpenAIRE

    Gariela Gonçalves; Luís Afonso; Marta Ferreira; Teresa Ferro; Nascimento, Maria M.

    2013-01-01

    This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through t...

  12. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Piet J.H. Daas; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  13. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; DELEN, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  14. Self-Confidence and Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Roland Benabou; Jean Tirole

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self esteem and his social environment in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering payments ...

  15. Confidence Sets for a Change-Point.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-10-01

    probability credible set for j. In fact, even without the explicit evaluation in (1), one knows from a general theorem of Stein (1965) and Hora and...confidence sets with smallest expected measure, Ann. Statist. , 10, 1283-94. Hora , R. B. and Buehler, R. J. (1966), Fiducial theory and invariant...simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change-point problem -’-"C with zero -one observations, Biometrika 67, 79-84. Raferty, A. E. and Akman, V

  16. Confidence and coverage for Bland-Altman limits of agreement and their approximate confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carkeet, Andrew; Goh, Yee Teng

    2016-09-01

    Bland and Altman described approximate methods in 1986 and 1999 for calculating confidence limits for their 95% limits of agreement, approximations which assume large subject numbers. In this paper, these approximations are compared with exact confidence intervals calculated using two-sided tolerance intervals for a normal distribution. The approximations are compared in terms of the tolerance factors themselves but also in terms of the exact confidence limits and the exact limits of agreement coverage corresponding to the approximate confidence interval methods. Using similar methods the 50th percentile of the tolerance interval are compared with the k values of 1.96 and 2, which Bland and Altman used to define limits of agreements (i.e. [Formula: see text]+/- 1.96Sd and [Formula: see text]+/- 2Sd). For limits of agreement outer confidence intervals, Bland and Altman's approximations are too permissive for sample sizes confidence limits the approximations are poorer, being permissive for sample sizes of confidence intervals for 95% limits of agreements, based on two-sided tolerance factors, can be calculated easily based on tables and should be used in preference to the approximate methods, especially for small sample sizes. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new longitu

  18. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  19. Social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in Quebec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Bellemare, Christian A; Bédard, Suzanne K; Lemieux, Renald

    2015-02-21

    Access to healthcare in remote areas is difficult and telehealth could be a promising avenue if accepted by the population. The aim of this study is to assess social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in the Province of Quebec. We conducted a survey using a questionnaire assessing the social acceptance of and confidence level in telehealth. Two strategies were used: 1) paper questionnaires were sent to two hospitals in Quebec; and 2) online questionnaires were randomly sent by a firm specialized in online survey to a representative sample of the population of the Province of Quebec. Respondents were all residents of the Province of Quebec and 18 years and older. Questions were scored with a four-level Likert scale. A total of 1816 questionnaires were analyzed (229 written and 1,587 online questionnaires). The socio-demographic variables in our samples, especially the online questionnaires, were fairly representative of Quebec's population. Overall, social acceptance scored at 77.71% and confidence level at 65.76%. Both scores were higher in the case of treatment (3 scenarios were proposed) vs. diagnosis (p < 0.05). No difference was found when respondents were asked to respond for themselves and for a member of their family, which demonstrates a true interest in telehealth in Quebec. In addition, we found a significant difference (p < 0.05) between written and online questionnaires regarding social acceptance (80.75% vs. 77.33%) and confidence level (74.84% vs. 64.55%). These differences may be due to social desirability or avidity bias in the written questionnaires. Our results suggest that the population in Quebec encourages the development of telehealth for real time diagnosis and long distance treatment for regions deprived of healthcare professionals.

  20. The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

  1. Properties of frequentist confidence levels derivatives

    CERN Document Server

    Martínez, Miriam Lucio; Dettori, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    In high energy physics, results from searches for new particles or rare processes are often reported using a modified frequentist approach, known as $\\rm{CL_s}$ method. In this paper, we study the properties of the derivatives of $\\rm{CL_s}$ and $\\rm{CL_{s+b}}$ as signal strength estimators if the confidence levels are interpreted as credible intervals. Our approach allows obtaining best fit points and $\\chi^2$ functions which can be used for phenomenology studies. In addition, this approach can be used to incorporate $\\rm{CL_s}$ results into Bayesian combinations.

  2. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-09-15

    -existing deformations in the core exceeded the elasticity limit of the intact rock. These problems are identified and considered in the modelling, and affect uncertainty, but have a limited negative impact on confidence. Overall there is limited measurement bias in the data and bias due to poor representativity is much reduced compared with earlier model versions. However, some degree of bias due to limited representativity remains in some areas. An important remaining bias relates to the fracture size data, since these have to be based on outcrops and not on data from the underground. However, the impact on uncertainty can be estimated and is accounted for in the modelling. Many of the alternative hypotheses formed in earlier iterations of the site descriptive modelling work have now been discarded or are handled by bounding assumptions. Nevertheless a few alternative hypotheses needed to be developed into alternative models, to be propagated to safety assessment or engineering. These alternative models concern: fracture size and intensity modelling in the geological DFN; geometry, connectivity and transmissivity of deformation zones in the regional domain; hydraulic properties and connectivity of the fracture network of a scale less than the deterministic deformation zone; alternative hypotheses as to groundwater composition and processes; processes for sulphate reduction; and effects of connectivity, complexity and channelling on distribution of flow. Another prerequisite for confidence is consistency, or at least no conflicts, between the different discipline model interpretations. Furthermore, confidence is enhanced if aspects of the model are supported by independent evidence from different disciplines. Essentially all identified interactions are considered in the site descriptive modelling work. Only data from underground investigations are judged to have the potential to further significantly reduce uncertainties within the potential repository volume: The range of size

  3. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  4. Determining Frequentist Confidence Limits Using a Directed Parameter Space Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-10-01

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  5. Measurement of confidence: the development and psychometric evaluation of a stroke-specific, measure of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jane C; Lincoln, Nadina B; Logan, Pip A

    2017-04-01

    To design, develop and psychometrically evaluate a stroke-specific measure of confidence, the Confidence after Stroke Measure (CaSM). Cross-sectional. Adults in the community. Stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants. Questionnaire items were generated based on the literature and qualitative interviews and piloted with expert groups to establish face validity. A 53-item CaSM was administered to stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants in the community. A second copy was posted four weeks later. Completed questionnaires were analysed for extreme responses, missing values, construct validity (factor analysis), convergent validity, divergent validity, reliability (internal consistency and temporal stability) and comparing responses according to age and gender. Stroke ( n = 101) and healthy elderly participants ( n = 101) returned questionnaires. Eight items were removed that had extreme responses and large numbers of missing values. Six items had item total correlations Confidence, Positive Attitude and Social Confidence, which explained 52% of variance. Cronbach's alpha coefficient demonstrated good internal consistency ( α = 0.94). A test re-test on the 27 items indicated good temporal stability ( r = 0.85, P = 0.001). The 27-item CaSM was a valid and reliable measure for assessing confidence in stroke survivors.

  6. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  7. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  8. Mediated Sources of Public Confidence: Lazarsfeld and Merton Revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, Peter

    1999-01-01

    Contributes to scholarship on mass media's role in generating public confidence. Discusses the current crisis of confidence, confidence as "faith-together," varied routes by which media confer status, and ways both journalistic expose and public debate can generate cynicism and undercut public confidence. Sketches three types of civil…

  9. Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folke, Tomas; Jacobsen, Catrine; Fleming, Stephen M.

    2016-01-01

    Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes...... of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence...... of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions....

  10. Confidence intervals for annual wind power production******

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bensoussan Alain

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind power is an intermittent resource due to wind speed intermittency. However wind speed can be described as a stochastic process with short memory. This allows us to derive a central limit theorem for the annual or pluri-annual wind power production and then get quantiles of the wind power production for one, ten or twenty years future periods. On the one hand, the interquantile spread offers a measurement of the intrinsic uncertainties of wind power production. On the other hand, different quantiles with different periods of time are used by financial institutions to quantify the financial risk of the wind turbine. Our method is then applied to real datasets corresponding to a French wind turbine. Since confidence intervals can be enhanced by taking into account seasonality, we present some tools for change point analysis on wind series.

  11. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  12. Setting confidence intervals in coincidence search analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Baggio, L; Baggio, Lucio; Prodi, Giovanni A.

    2003-01-01

    The main technique that has been used to estimate the rate of gravitational wave (gw) bursts is to search for coincidence among times of arrival of candidate events in different detectors. Coincidences are modeled as a (possibly non-stationary) random time series background with gw events embedded in it, at random times but constant average rate. It is critical to test whether the statistics of the coincidence counts is Poisson, because the counts in a single detector often are not. At some point a number of parameters are tuned to increase the chance of detection by reducing the expected background: source direction, epoch vetoes based on sensitivity, goodness-of-fit thresholds, etc. Therefore, the significance of the confidence intervals itself has to be renormalized. This review is an insight of the state-of-the-art methods employed in the recent search performed by the International Gravitational Event Collaboration for the worldwide network of resonant bar detectors.

  13. Confidence sets for optimal factor levels of a response surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fang; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Han, Yang

    2016-12-01

    Construction of confidence sets for the optimal factor levels is an important topic in response surfaces methodology. In Wan et al. (2015), an exact (1-α) confidence set has been provided for a maximum or minimum point (i.e., an optimal factor level) of a univariate polynomial function in a given interval. In this article, the method has been extended to construct an exact (1-α) confidence set for the optimal factor levels of response surfaces. The construction method is readily applied to many parametric and semiparametric regression models involving a quadratic function. A conservative confidence set has been provided as an intermediate step in the construction of the exact confidence set. Two examples are given to illustrate the application of the confidence sets. The comparison between confidence sets indicates that our exact confidence set is better than the only other confidence set available in the statistical literature that guarantees the (1-α) confidence level. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  14. Fusing photovoltaic data for improved confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansgar Steland

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing and testing photovoltaic modules requires carefully made measurements on important variables such as the power output under standard conditions. When additional data is available, which has been collected using a different measurement system and therefore may be of different accuracy, the question arises how one can combine the information present in both data sets. In some cases one even has prior knowledge about the ordering of the variances of the measurement errors, which is not fully taken into account by commonly known estimators. We discuss several statistical estimators to combine the sample means of independent series of measurements, both under the assumption of heterogeneous variances and ordered variances. The critical issue is then to assess the estimator’s variance and to construct confidence intervals. We propose and discuss the application of a new jackknife variance estimator devised by [1] to such photovoltaic data, in order to assess the variability of common mean estimation under heterogeneous and ordered variances in a reliable and nonparametric way. When serial correlations are present, which usually a ect the marginal variances, it is proposed to construct a thinned data set by downsampling the series in such a way that autocorrelations are removed or dampened. We propose a data adaptive procedure which downsamples a series at irregularly spaced time points in such a way that the autocorrelations are minimized. The procedures are illustrated by applying them to real photovoltaic power output measurements from two different sun light flashers. In addition, focusing on simulations governed by real photovoltaic data, we investigate the accuracy of the jackknife approach and compare it with other approaches. Among those is a variance estimator based on Nair’s formula for Gaussian data and, as a parametric alternative, two Bayesian models. We investigate the statistical accuracy of the resulting confidence

  15. The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey: confidence stabilizing, but preparations continue to erode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2010-03-01

    20TH ANNUAL RCS: The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey-the 20th annual wave of this survey-finds that the record-low confidence levels measured during the past two years of economic decline appear to have bottomed out. The percentage of workers veryconfident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement has stabilized at 16 percent, which is statistically equivalent to the 20-year low of 13 percent measured in 2009 (Fig. 1, pg. 7). Retiree confidence about having a financially secure retirement has also stabilized, with 19 percent saying now they are very confident (statistically equivalent to the 20 percent measured in 2009) (Fig. 2, pg. 8). Worker confidence about paying for basic expenses in retirement has rebounded slightly, with 29 percent now saying they are very confident about having enough money to pay for basic expenses during retirement (up from 25 percent in 2009, but still down from 34 percent in 2008) (Fig. 3, pg. 9). PREPARATIONS STILL ERODING: Fewer workers report that they and/or their spouse have saved for retirement (69 percent, down from 75 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to 72 percent in 2008) (Fig. 11, page 14). Moreover, fewer workers say that they and/or their spouse are currently saving for retirement (60 percent, down from 65 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to percentages measured in other years) (Fig. 13, pg. 15). MORE PEOPLE HAVE NO SAVINGS AT ALL: An increased percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. Among RCS workers providing this type of information, 27 percent say they have less than $1,000 in savings (up from 20 percent in 2009). In total, more than half of workers (54 percent) report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000 (Fig. 14, pg. 16). CLUELESS ABOUT SAVINGS GOALS: Many workers continue to be unaware of how much they need to save for

  16. Knowledge and Confidence of Emergency Clinicians in Managing Toxicological Presentations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Monteith

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Acute poisonings are common presentations to emergency departments (EDs worldwide and require rapid assessment. Consultant emergency physicians (EPs faced with various toxicological presentations must initiate rapid investigations and empirical management. This study aimed to determine emergency department doctors’ level of knowledge and confidence in toxicological presentations, and factors that predicted these outcomes. Methods: Target participants included members of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM and readers of the emergency medicine website, “Life in the Fast Lane”. The survey was distributed electronically via the ACEM bulletin and posted on Life in the Fast Lane. A survey was designed based on toxicology multiple choice questions (MCQs. The questionnaire comprised 59 items: 10 demographic items; 20 items about confidence; 28 MCQs assessing knowledge of common and serious toxicological presentations. Results: There were 467 consenting respondents from 31 countries, with most residing in Australia (306/467, 66%. Respondents comprised similar proportions of consultant emergency physicians (196/467, 42.0%, and trainees (197/467, 42.2%.  Almost two-thirds (292/467; 62.1% had received formal training in toxicological emergencies, while a third (166/467, 35.5% had participated in a relevant conference or workshop. A total of 284/339 (83.8% participants completing all items achieved a knowledge test score >50%. More than 65% incorrectly answered questions on pharmacology of serotonin syndrome and lithium toxicity, and more than half incorrectly answered questions on use of 12 lead ECG in toxicology, calcium channel antagonist or tricyclic antidepressant toxicities. Predictors of overall knowledge for toxicology were receipt of formal toxicology education, and clinicians’ experience and seniority. Conclusion: The knowledge and confidence of doctors working in emergency departments is varied, yet

  17. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of

  18. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of emp

  19. Confidence intervals make a difference : Effects of showing confidence intervals on inferential reasoning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting result

  20. High-Confidence Quantum Gate Tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Blake; da Silva, Marcus; Ryan, Colm; Kimmel, Shelby; Donovan, Brian; Ohki, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Debugging and verification of high-fidelity quantum gates requires the development of new tools and protocols to unwrap the performance of the gate from the rest of the sequence. Randomized benchmarking tomography[2] allows one to extract full information of the unital portion of the gate with high confidence. We report experimental confirmation of the technique's applicability to quantum gate tomography. We show that the method is robust to common experimental imperfections such as imperfect single-shot readout and state preparation. We also demonstrate the ability to characterize non-Clifford gates. To assist in the experimental implementation we introduce two techniques. ``Atomic Cliffords'' use phase ramping and frame tracking to allow single-pulse implementation of the full group of single-qubit Clifford gates. Domain specific pulse sequencers allow rapid implementation of the many thousands of sequences needed. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), through the Army Research Office contract no. W911NF-10-1-0324.

  1. Exhibitors: Full of Confidence Adequate Preparation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    From March 26th,three most important trade fairs for Chinese textile industry opened successively inBeijing.Several exhibitors showed their confidence and preparation to TA Weekly. Bosideng:CHIC is an everlasting marketing chance"We’ll definitely participate in CHIC 2009,with even moreinvestment."Gao Dekang,the President of Bosideng Co.,Ltd said,"Bosideng is going to make full use of this trade fair for furtherdevelopment."According to the organizer of CHIC 2009,Bosidengreserved 1000 square meters for its show."CHIC witnessed the blooming development of Chinese clothingindustry for the last ten years.CHIC has made a progress to catch upwith the world trend as well as in the social influence.It has becomethe pioneer of fashion and is regarded as the releasing center,innovation center and brand center."As a long-term participant,Bosideng has the right to say these words.It is in this fair,Bosideng

  2. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  3. Bayesian estimation of keyword confidence in Chinese continuous speech recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAO Jie; LI Xing

    2003-01-01

    In a syllable-based speaker-independent Chinese continuous speech recognition system based on classical Hidden Markov Model (HMM), a Bayesian approach of keyword confidence estimation is studied, which utilizes both acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) score. The Maximum a posteriori (MAP) confidence measure is proposed, and the forward-backward algorithm calculating the MAP confidence scores is deduced. The performance of the MAP confidence measure is evaluated in keyword spotting application and the experiment results show that the MAP confidence scores provide high discriminability for keyword candidates. Furthermore, the MAP confidence measure can be applied to various speech recognition applications.

  4. DUOX2 promotes the elimination of the Klebsiella pneumoniae strain K5 from T24 cells through the reactive oxygen species pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Huixia; Wu, Qi; Yang, Huijun

    2015-08-01

    Dual oxidase 2 (DUOX2) plays a major role in host defense in intestinal and airway epithelial cells through the reactive oxygen species (ROS) pathway. Klebsiella pneumoniae is a uropathogen that causes urinary tract infections. It is not known whether DUOX2 plays a role in host defense in bladder cancer epithelial cells. It is also not known whether Klebsiella pneumoniae invades T24 human bladder carcinoma cells and whether DUOX2 plays a role in eliminating the Klebsiella pneumoniae strain K5 through the ROS pathway in T24 cells. Thus, in the present study, we aimed to investigate the infectious capability of the Klebsiella pneumoniae K5 strain and the immunity-promoting capability of DUOX2 in T24 cells. We quantified the number of viable intracellular bacteria using the plate count method. DUOX2 expression was evaluated by western blot analysis and reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) following treatment with or without multiple cytokines, phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA), muramyl dipeptide (MDP), N-acetylmuramyl-D-alanyl-D-isoglutamine (MDP-DD), H2O2 inhibitor, catalase (CAT), the nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate-oxidase (NADPH) oxidase inhibitor, diphenyleneiodonium (DPI), or siRNA targeting DUOX2 (siDUOX2). The levels of ROS in the T24 cells infected with the K5 strain were examined following treatment with DPI, CAT or siDUOX2. Our results revealed that DUOX2 expression increased and the number of viable intracellular bacteria decreased in the T24 cells following infection with the K4 bacteria. Treatment with the cytokines and MDP and PMA also induced DUOX2 expression and decreased the number of viable intracellular bacteria. The levels of ROS also increased following treatment with the cytokines and MDP and PMA. However, when the cells were treated with the inhibitors (DPI or CAT), these effects were all reversed. Our data demonstrated that DUOX2 played an important role in innate immunity against bacterial cytoinvasion through the

  5. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  6. Business confidence still high in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanor-wilks, D

    1995-12-01

    Business confidence has not been affected in Zimbabwe despite the AIDS epidemic in that country. An Australian mining company has recruited people to work at its platinum mine in Zimbabwe and also instituted an AIDS awareness program. The National Chamber of Commerce disclosed that semiskilled and unskilled workers who are the "easiest to replace" have been most affected by the epidemic. The impact of AIDS has not been as bad as had been predicted several years ago. By the end of the 1990s, however, there might be a skills shortage. The first AIDS case was detected in 1985 in Zimbabwe. By the end of 1995 a cumulative total of 38,500 cases had been reported, but the National AIDS Control Program believes that the true figure is over 100,000. The estimated number of HIV-infected people is about 1 million. The most economically productive age group (30-50) has the highest rates of infection. Transport is affected most, followed by mining and commercial farming. Infection rates among miners are estimated to be 20-30% and the rates are the highest at the mines on the major transport routes. The mining industry has not had any problems in recruiting labor, but, increasingly, deaths are AIDS-related. The growing sex industry at the mines has accelerated the spread of HIV. In addition, small mines do not have AIDS awareness programs in place. The National Employment Council runs a project for the transport industry, which seeks to intensify AIDS campaigns at truck stops. This also entails talks to drivers about AIDS; courses for police, nurses, and sex workers; and the distribution of condoms. In commercial farming, two-thirds of workers are unskilled casual laborers who live in squalid conditions that foster the spread of AIDS. At these farms there is also a growing number of orphans, whose number is estimated to rise to 60,000 by the late 1990s.

  7. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  8. The role of confidence in world-class sport performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Kate; Thomas, Owen; Maynard, Ian; Bawden, Mark

    2009-09-01

    In this study, we examined the role of confidence in relation to the cognitive, affective, and behavioural responses it elicits, and identified the factors responsible for debilitating confidence within the organizational subculture of world-class sport. Using Vealey's (2001) integrative model of sport confidence as a broad conceptual base, 14 athletes (7 males, 7 females) were interviewed in response to the research aims. Analysis indicated that high sport confidence facilitated performance through its positive effect on athletes' thoughts, feelings, and behaviours. However, the athletes participating in this study were susceptible to factors that served to debilitate their confidence. These factors appeared to be associated with the sources from which they derived their confidence and influenced to some extent by gender. Thus, the focus of interventions designed to enhance sport confidence must reflect the individual needs of the athlete, and might involve identifying an athlete's sources and types of confidence, and ensuring that these are intact during competition preparation phases.

  9. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference.

  10. Assessing Residents' Confidence in the Context of Pharmacotherapy Competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakofsky, Jeffrey J; Garlow, Steven J; Haroon, Ebrahim; Hermida, Adriana P; Young, John Q; Dunlop, Boadie W

    2017-06-01

    We aimed to determine whether residents' confidence initiating medications increased with the number of times they prescribed individual medications and to quantify the relationship between prescription frequency and gains in confidence. From July 2011 to June 2014, PGY-3 residents completed a survey of confidence levels at their psychopharmacology clinic orientation and then again 12 months later. The Emory Healthcare electronic medical record was used to identify all medications prescribed by each resident during their 12-month rotation and the frequency of these prescriptions. Confidence in initiating treatment with all medicines/medication classes increased over the 12-month period. For three of the medication classes for which residents indicated they were least confident at orientation, the number of prescriptions written during the year was significantly associated with an increase in confidence. Measuring resident confidence is a relevant and achievable outcome and provides data for educators regarding the amount of experience needed to increase confidence.

  11. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference. PMID:25190904

  12. On the Confidence Interval for the parameter of Poisson Distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Bityukov, S I; Taperechkina, V A

    2000-01-01

    In present paper the possibility of construction of continuous analogue of Poisson distribution with the search of bounds of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution is discussed and the results of numerical construction of confidence intervals are presented.

  13. K5R8 METAR

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is a routine scheduled observation and is the primary observation code used in the United States to satisfy requirements for reporting surface meteorological...

  14. Generalized confidence interval plots using commands or dialogs

    OpenAIRE

    Roger Newson

    2005-01-01

    Confidence intervals may be presented as publication-ready tables or as presentation-ready plots. -eclplot- produces plots of estimates and confidence intervals. It inputs a dataset (or resultsset) with one observation per parameter and variables containing estimates, lower and upper confidence limits, and a fourth variable, against which the confidence intervals are plotted. This resultsset can be used for producing both plots and tables, and may be generated using a spreadsheet or using -st...

  15. Two-Sided Tests and One-Sided Confidence Bounds

    OpenAIRE

    1994-01-01

    Based on the duality between tests and confidence sets we introduce a new method to derive one-sided confidence bounds following the rejection of a null hypothesis with two-sided alternatives. This method imputes that the experimenter is only interested in confidence bounds if the null hypothesis is rejected. Furthermore, we suppose that he is only interested in the direction and a lower confidence bound concerning the distance of the true parameter value to the parameter values in the null h...

  16. Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments Peter H. Feiler Charles B. Weinstock John B. Goodenough...Design 8 2.3 Architecture Fault Modeling and Analysis with EMV2 8 2.4 Confidence Map Concepts and Notation 11 Overview of the Stepper-Motor System...Comparison of the SMS Designs 43 Establishing Confidence in the SMS 45 6.1 Confidence Maps for SMS 45 CMU/SEI-2015-TR-006 | SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

  17. How to Strengthen Child Learners’Self-confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李文敬

    2013-01-01

    Self-confidence is closely related to L2 learning. In order to make their learners enjoy English learning, English teach-ers need to strengthen the learners’English learning confidence. This article is to find out English teachers’role to strengthening learners’self-confidence in ELL by means of class observation. The writer concludes improving speaking ability; giving praise and offering gentle error correcting can help to strengthen the learners’confidence.

  18. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors’ opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors’ opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual’s confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors’ opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation. PMID:28264038

  19. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-13

    ...; ] NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 RIN 3150-AJ20 Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental... Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement,'' that forms the regulatory basis for the proposed... Confidence rule). The NRC staff plans to hold 12 public meetings during the public comment period to present...

  20. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  1. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26... COMMUNITY Specific Sector Provisions for Medical Devices § 26.37 Confidence building activities. (a) At the beginning of the transitional period, the Joint Sectoral Group will establish a joint confidence building...

  2. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no information...

  3. Coverage Accuracy of Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song-xi Chen; Yong-song Qin

    2003-01-01

    Point-wise confidence intervals for a nonparametric regression function with random design points are considered. The confidence intervals are those based on the traditional normal approximation and the empirical likelihood. Their coverage accuracy is assessed by developing the Edgeworth expansions for the coverage probabilities. It is shown that the empirical likelihood confidence intervals are Bartlett correctable.

  4. Developing Self-confidence%培养自信心

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Robert Kokoska

    2006-01-01

    @@ Ideally,self-confidence is something you develop early and maintain throughout life. For many of us,though, that just isn't the case-either the process of developing self-confidence is stymied early on,or we lose confidence because of life events.

  5. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  6. Predicting Postfeedback Performance from Students' Confidence in Their Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Timothy A.

    The model of feedback processing proposed by R. W. Kulhavy and W. A. Stock (1989) was studied in a traditional classroom setting in which methods of assessing students' response confidence as predictors of postfeedback performance were also examined. The relationship between confidence ratings at the time of the test and confidence assessed prior…

  7. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  8. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  9. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  10. Cortical alpha activity reflects the degree of confidence in committing to an action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan eKubanek

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject’s confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects’ confidence was independent of the reaction time, of eye movement, and of activity of forearm muscles. Furthermore, the effect was not explained by the sensory input modeled by a decision variable. Neither could the effect be explained by a general cognitive state, such as arousal or reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of its button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the degree of a forming commitment to make a hand movement.

  11. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-05-09

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

  12. Perceived Sources of Team Confidence in Soccer and Basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Vande Broek, Gert; Boen, Filip

    2015-07-01

    Although it is generally accepted that team confidence is beneficial for optimal team functioning and performance, little is known about the predictors of team confidence. The present study was aimed to shed light on the precursors of both high and low team confidence in two different sports. A distinction is made between sources of process-oriented team confidence (i.e., collective efficacy) and sources of outcome-oriented team confidence (i.e., team outcome confidence), which have often been confounded in previous research. In a first step, two qualitative studies were conducted to identify all possible sources of team confidence in basketball and in soccer. In a second step, three quantitative studies were conducted to further investigate the sources of team outcome confidence in soccer (N = 1028) and in basketball (N = 867), and the sources of collective efficacy in basketball (N = 825). Players perceived high-quality performance as the most important factor for their team outcome confidence. With regard to collective efficacy, team enthusiasm was perceived as most predictive determinant. Positive coaching emerged as second most decisive factor for both types of team confidence. In contrast, negative communication and expression by the players or the coach was perceived as the most decisive predictor of low levels of team confidence. At item level, all studies pointed to the importance of team confidence expression by the athlete leaders (i.e., leader figures within the team) and the coach. The present manuscript sheds light on the precursors of high and low levels of team confidence. Athlete leaders and the coach emerged as key triggers of both upward and downward spirals of team confidence, thereby contaminating all team members.

  13. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  14. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2017-07-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  15. "Yes, we can!" review on team confidence in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Mertens, Niels; Feltz, Deborah; Boen, Filip

    2017-08-01

    During the last decade, team confidence has received more and more attention in the sport psychology literature. Research has demonstrated that athletes who are more confident in their team's abilities exert more effort, set more challenging goals, are more resilient when facing adversities, and ultimately perform better. This article reviews the existing literature in order to provide more clarity in terms of the conceptualization and the operationalization of team confidence. We thereby distinguish between collective efficacy (i.e., process-oriented team confidence) and team outcome confidence (i.e., outcome-oriented team confidence). In addition, both the sources as well as the outcomes of team confidence will be discussed. Furthermore, we will go deeper into the dispersion of team confidence and we will evaluate the current guidelines on how to measure both types of team confidence. Building upon this base, the article then highlights interesting avenues for future research in order to further improve both our theoretical knowledge on team confidence and its application to the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  17. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    . It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall...... test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  18. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.

  19. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  20. Confidence of model based shape reconstruction from sparse data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baka, N.; de Bruijne, Marleen; Reiber, J. H. C.

    2010-01-01

    and assign a confidence value to the resulting reconstructed shape. An evaluation study is performed to compare three methods used for sparse SSM fitting w.r.t. specificity, generalization ability, and correctness of estimated confidence limits with an increasing amount of input information. We find...... that the proposed constrained shape model outperforms the other models, is robust against the selection and amount of sparse information, and indicates the shape confidence well....

  1. The Effect of Self-confidence in SLA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李艳

    2012-01-01

      Krashen’s affective filter theory drew researchers’ attention to the fresh field of internal factors of learners. But researchers seem to pay too much attention to the other factors while tending to neglect a factor that we cannot afford to play down in language learning research—self-confidence. This paper is designed to discuss the close relationship between self-confidence and some of the other important affective factors, and furthermore raise appropriate concern over self-confidence.

  2. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra Buratti; Carl Martin Allwood

    2012-01-01

    We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate) by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying c...

  3. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    OpenAIRE

    Aitchison, L.; Bang, D; Bahrami, B.; Latham, P.E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we te...

  4. Generalized Confidence Interval for the Common Coefficient of Variation

    OpenAIRE

    Behboodian, Javad; Jafari, Ali Akbar

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we consider the problem of constructing the confidence interval and testing hypothesis for the common coefficient of variation (CV) of several normal populations. A new method is suggested using the concepts of generalized p-value and generalized confidence interval. Using this new method and a method proposed by Tian (2005), we obtain a shorter confidence interval for the common CV. This combination method has good properties in terms of length and coverage probability compa...

  5. Boosting confidence: is there a role for fiscal policy?

    OpenAIRE

    Panagiotis Konstantinou; Athanasios Tagkalakis

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, possibly bec...

  6. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  7. Cultural competence knowledge and confidence after classroom activities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Muzumdar, Jagannath Mohan; Holiday-Goodman, Monica; Black, Curtis; Powers, Mary

    2010-01-01

    To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum...

  8. Confidence Intervals for Standardized Effect Sizes: Theory, Application, and Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Kelley

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The behavioral, educational, and social sciences are undergoing a paradigmatic shift in methodology, from disciplines that focus on the dichotomous outcome of null hypothesis significance tests to disciplines that report and interpret effect sizes and their corresponding confidence intervals. Due to the arbitrariness of many measurement instruments used in the behavioral, educational, and social sciences, some of the most widely reported effect sizes are standardized. Although forming confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes can be very beneficial, such confidence interval procedures are generally difficult to implement because they depend on noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions. At present, no main-stream statistical package provides exact confidence intervals for standardized effects without the use of specialized programming scripts. Methods for the Behavioral, Educational, and Social Sciences (MBESS is an R package that has routines for calculating confidence intervals for noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions, which are then used in the calculation of exact confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes by using the confidence interval transformation and inversion principles. The present article discusses the way in which confidence intervals are formed for standardized effect sizes and illustrates how such confidence intervals can be easily formed using MBESS in R.

  9. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

  10. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135

  11. Target plane confidence boundaries: mathematics of the 1997 XF11 scare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, A.; Valsecchi, G. B.

    The uncertainty of the close approach distance of a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) can be represented on a Modified Target Plane (MTP), a modification of the one used by Opik. The MTP is orthogonal to the geocentric velocity at the closest approach point along the nominal orbit, solution of the least square adjustment to the astrometric observations. The confidence regions of this solution, in the 6-dimensional space of orbital elements, for an epoch close to the observations, are well approximated by a family of concentric ellipsoids if the observed arc is not too short. In the linear approximation, these ellipsoids are mapped on the MTP into concentric ellipses, which can be computed by solving the variational equation for the state transition matrix up to the close approach time. For an asteroid observed at only one opposition, however, if the close approach is expected after many revolutions, the ellipses on the MTP become extremely elongated and therefore the linear approximation may fail. In this case the confidence boundaries on the MTP, by definition the nonlinear images of the confidence ellipsoids, may not be well approximated by the ellipses. In theory the Monte Carlo method by Muinonen and Bowell (1993) can be used to explicitly compute the nonlinear confidence boundaries, but in practice the computational load is very heavy, since to estimate a low probability event, the number of test cases must be larger than the inverse of the probability. We propose a new method to compute semilinear confidence boundaries on the MTP, based on the theory developed by Milani (1998) to efficiently compute confidence boundaries for predicted observations. This method is a reasonable compromise between reliability and computational load, and can be used for real time risk assessment. We apply this technique to discuss the recent case of asteroid 1997 XF11, which appeared, on the basis of the observations available at the beginning of March 1998, to be on an orbit

  12. Crystal Structure of the 1:2 Stoichiometric Nd: [α-SiW11O39]8-: K5Na5H3[Nd(α-SiW11O39)2]·6H2O

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAN Qiu-Xia; WANG Jing-Ping; NIU Jing-Yang

    2007-01-01

    Single-crystal X-ray structural analysis of K5Na5H3[Nd(α-SiW11O39)2]·6H2O(triclinic, space group P1-, a = 13.7738(10), b = 19.722(2), c = 20.6647(15) (A), α = 111.0090(10), β =105.1740(10), γ = 98-6870(10)°, Z = 2, V = 4867.2(8), Mr = 5914.40, Dc = 4.026, μ = 26.754 mm-1,F(000) = 5076, R = 0.0750 and wR = 0.2077) reveals that two [α-SiW11O39]8- moieties are connected through one Nd atom which is in a square antiprismatic coordination environment by eight oxygen atoms from two [α-SiW11O391]8- moieties. The Nd(Ⅲ) ion is substituted for a [WO]4+unit in the "cap" region of the tungsten-oxygen framework of the parent Keggin ion. Disordered Na+cations and water molecules reside outside these channels, leaving empty pores with an intersecting slot (13 (A) × 10 (A)).

  13. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  14. The Appropriateness of Confidence Ratings in Clinical Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Howard N.

    1986-01-01

    Reviewed studies in which clinicians made judgments and then rated the degree of confidence that they had in each of their judgments. Results reveal little support for the hypothesis that clinicians are overconfident. Confidence ratings were related positively to the validity of judgments in a number of studies. Experienced clinicians made more…

  15. The Restoration of Confidence in Science and Technology Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bybee, Rodger W.

    1985-01-01

    An analysis is given of the crisis and loss of confidence in science and technology education, due in part to maintenance of outdated purposes, programs, and practices. The need to clarify and reformulate goals and purposes and thus restore confidence is discussed. (MNS)

  16. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  17. Confidence in the Criminal Justice System: Does experience count?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractPublic confidence in the justice system is relatively low compared to that in many other institutions. Part of this lack of confidence has been attributed to a low public understanding of how the justice system really works. Experience with the justice system is often identified as a way

  18. Computer Use, Confidence, Attitudes, and Knowledge: A Causal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Tamar; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

    1998-01-01

    Introduces a causal model which links measures of computer experience, computer-related attitudes, computer-related confidence, and perceived computer-based knowledge. The causal model suggests that computer use has a positive effect on perceived computer self-confidence, as well as on computer-related attitudes. Questionnaires were administered…

  19. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  20. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  1. Confidence in the Criminal Justice System: Does experience count?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractPublic confidence in the justice system is relatively low compared to that in many other institutions. Part of this lack of confidence has been attributed to a low public understanding of how the justice system really works. Experience with the justice system is often identified as a way

  2. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  3. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  4. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  5. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... OF TRANSPORTATION RULES OF PRACTICE PRACTITIONERS Canons of Ethics The Practitioner's Duties and Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

  6. nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Temechegn

    The goal of the study was to find out the self-confidence and confidence level of senior ... Specifically, chemistry teachers ask students this question when an ... high school students from connecting with scientific principles in the way ... chemical reaction, ability to identify factors that affect equilibrium reactions and ability to.

  7. Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

  8. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  9. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  10. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  11. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  12. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, A.; Roelfsema, Pieter R; Sigman, Mariano

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  13. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  14. Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this measu

  15. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  16. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  17. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2016-09-29

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often assumed that both recognition decisions and confidence judgments in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition tests depend on participants' assessments of a difference in strength of memory evidence supporting the 2 alternatives-the relative account. In the present study we focus on the basis of confidence judgments and we assess the relative account of confidence against the absolute account of confidence, by which in assigning confidence participants consider only strength of memory evidence supporting the chosen alternative. The results of the study show that confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition decisions is higher when memory evidence is stronger for the chosen alternative and also when memory evidence is stronger for the unchosen alternative. These patterns of results are consistent with the absolute account of confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition but they are inconsistent with the relative account. (PsycINFO Database Record

  18. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  19. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  20. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Buratti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

  1. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  2. Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

  3. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  4. Contrasting Diversity Values: Statistical Inferences Based on Overlapping Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance). PMID:23437239

  5. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamini Solanki

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE. We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Index and market performance. The results show weak evidence of a contemporaneous relationship; however, significant evidence of a Granger caused relationship is apparent. Further, changes in investor sentiment Granger-cause changes in the two indices used, generally with a lag of 9 and 12 months, but not vice versa. Thus, we find that Consumer Confidence leads JSE performance during our sample period. Our research provides evidence contradicting the common perception of consumer confidence lagging market performance, particularly in the South African context.

  6. Development of a core confidence-higher order construct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajkovic, Alexander D

    2006-11-01

    The author develops core confidence as a higher order construct and suggests that a core confidence-higher order construct--not addressed by extant work motivation theories--is helpful in better understanding employee motivation in today's rapidly changing organizations. Drawing from psychology (social, clinical, and developmental) and social anthropology, the author develops propositions regarding the relationships between core confidence and performance, attitudes, and subjective well-being. The core confidence-higher order construct is proposed to be manifested by hope, self-efficacy, optimism, and resilience. The author reasons that these four variables share a common confidence core (a higher order construct) and may be considered as its manifestations. Suggestions for future research and implications of the work are discussed.

  7. A minimal ingroup advantage in emotion identification confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Steven G; Wilson, John Paul

    2016-12-28

    Emotion expressions convey valuable information about others' internal states and likely behaviours. Accurately identifying expressions is critical for social interactions, but so is perceiver confidence when decoding expressions. Even if a perceiver correctly labels an expression, uncertainty may impair appropriate behavioural responses and create uncomfortable interactions. Past research has found that perceivers report greater confidence when identifying emotions displayed by cultural ingroup members, an effect attributed to greater perceptual skill and familiarity with own-culture than other-culture faces. However, the current research presents novel evidence for an ingroup advantage in emotion decoding confidence across arbitrary group boundaries that hold culture constant. In two experiments using different stimulus sets participants not only labeled minimal ingroup expressions more accurately, but did so with greater confidence. These results offer novel evidence that ingroup advantages in emotion decoding confidence stem partly from social-cognitive processes.

  8. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning.

  9. The CO2 Abundance in Comets C/2012 K1 (PanSTARRS), C/2012 K5 (LINEAR), and 290P/Jager as Measured with Spitzer

    CERN Document Server

    McKay, Adam J; Cochran, Anita L; Bodewits, Dennis; DiSanti, Michael A; Russo, Neil Dello; Lisse, Carey M

    2015-01-01

    We present analysis of observations of CO2 and OI emission in three comets to measure the CO2 abundance and evaluate the possibility of employing observations of OI emission in comets as a proxy for CO2. We obtained NIR imaging sensitive to CO2 of comets C/2012 K1 (PanSTARRS), C/2012 K5 (LINEAR), and 290P/Jager with the IRAC instrument on Spitzer. We acquired observations of OI emission in these comets with the ARCES echelle spectrometer mounted on the 3.5-meter telescope at Apache Point Observatory and observations of OH with the Swift observatory (PanSTARRS) and with Keck HIRES (Jager). The CO2/H2O ratios derived from the Spitzer images are 12.6 +/- 1.3% (PanSTARRS), 28.9 +/- 3.6% (LINEAR), and 31.3 +/- 4.2% (Jager). These abundances are derived under the assumption that contamination from CO emission is negligible. The CO2 abundance for PanSTARRS is close to the average abundance measured in comets at similar heliocentric distance to date, while the abundances measured for LINEAR and Jager are significantl...

  10. Final report on key comparison CCAUV.A-K5: pressure calibration of laboratory standard microphones in the frequency range 2 Hz to 10 kHz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avison, Janine; Barham, Richard

    2014-01-01

    This document and the accompanying spreadsheets constitute the final report for key comparison CCAUV.A-K5 on the pressure calibration of laboratory standard microphones in the frequency range from 2 Hz to 10 kHz. Twelve national measurement institutes took part in the key comparison and the National Physical Laboratory piloted the project. Two laboratory standard microphones IEC type LS1P were circulated to the participants and results in the form of regular calibration certificates were collected throughout the project. One of the microphones was subsequently deemed to have compromised stability for the purpose of deriving a reference value. Consequently the key comparison reference value (KCRV) has been made based on the weighted mean results for sensitivity level and for sensitivity phase from just one of the microphones. Corresponding degrees of equivalence (DoEs) have also been calculated and are presented. Main text. To reach the main text of this paper, click on Final Report. Note that this text is that which appears in Appendix B of the BIPM key comparison database kcdb.bipm.org/. The final report has been peer-reviewed and approved for publication by the CCAUV, according to the provisions of the CIPM Mutual Recognition Arrangement (CIPM MRA).

  11. The radii of the nearby K5V and K7V stars 61 Cyg A & B - CHARA/FLUOR interferometry and CESAM2k modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Kervella, Pierre; Pichon, Bernard; Thévenin, Frédéric; Heiter, Ulrike; Bigot, Lionel; Brummelaar, Theo A Ten; Mcalister, Harold A; Ridgway, Stephen T; Turner, Nils; Sturmann, Judit; Sturmann, Laszlo; Goldfinger, P J; Farrington, Christopher

    2008-01-01

    Context: The main sequence binary star 61 Cyg (K5V+K7V) is our nearest stellar neighbour in the northern hemisphere. This proximity makes it a particularly well suited system for very high accuracy interferometric radius measurements. Aims: Our goal is to constrain the poorly known evolutionary status and age of this bright binary star. Methods: We obtained high accuracy interferometric observations in the infrared K' band, using the CHARA/FLUOR instrument. We then computed evolutionary models of 61 Cyg A & B with the CESAM2k code. As model constraints, we used a combination of observational parameters from classical observation methods (photometry, spectroscopy) as well as our new interferometric radii. Results: The measured limb darkened disk angular diameters are theta_LD(A) = 1.775 +/- 0.013 mas and theta_LD(B) = 1.581 +/- 0.022 mas, respectively for 61 Cyg A and B. Considering the high accuracy parallaxes available, these values translate into photospheric radii of R(A) = 0.665 +/- 0.005 Rsun and R(B...

  12. Characterisation of the effects of ATPA, a GLU(K5) receptor selective agonist, on excitatory synaptic transmission in area CA1 of rat hippocampal slices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, V R J; Collingridge, G L

    2002-06-01

    Kainate receptors are involved in a variety of synaptic functions in the CNS including the regulation of excitatory synaptic transmission. Previously we described the depressant action of the GLU(K5) selective agonist (RS)-2-amino-3-(3-hydroxy-5-tert-butylisoxazol-4-yl)propanoic acid (ATPA) on synaptic transmission in the Schaffer collateral-commissural pathway of rat hippocampal slices. In the present study we report several new features of the actions of ATPA at this synapse. Firstly, the effectiveness of ATPA is developmentally regulated. Secondly, the effects of ATPA decline during prolonged or repeated applications. Thirdly, the effects of ATPA are not mediated indirectly via activation of GABA(A), GABA(B), muscarinic or adenosine A(1) receptors. Fourthly, elevating extracellular Ca(2+) from 2 to 4 mM antagonises the effects of ATPA. Some differences between the actions of ATPA and kainate on synaptic transmission in the Schaffer collateral-commissural pathway are also noted.

  13. POST GRADUATE STUDENTS’ COMPUTING CONFIDENCE, COMPUTER AND INTERNET USAGE AT KUVEMPU UNIVERSITY-AN INDIAN STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jagannath K. Dange

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available There is a common belief that students entering Post Graduation have appropriate computing skills for study purposes and there is no longer a felt need for computer training programmes in tertiary education. First year students of Post Graduation were surveyed in 2009, they were asked about their Education and Computing backgrounds. Further, the elaboration of issues raised was gathered through focused interviews. Collected data was then analyzed through the percentage analysis. Nowadays Indian regional students have higher confidence in their Computing abilities. One clear reason as it appears, the increased access to Computers and the Internet confidence. They are also likely to contradict Knowledge and Confidence. Surprisingly, the survey results showed high usage extent of Computer Training Programmes. Therefore, the revoking of Computer Training Programmes for all P.G courses with Indian educational standards is not recommended.

  14. Development of 3-D lithostratigraphic and confidence models at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buesch, D.C.; Nelson, J.E.; Dickerson, R.P.; Spengler, R.W.

    1993-01-01

    Computerized three-dimensional geologic models of potential high-level nuclear waste repositories such as Yucca Moutain, Nevada, are important for visualizing the complex interplay of (1) thickness and facies variations in lithostratigraphic units and (2) the disruption of these units by faults. The concept of a 'model of confidence' in the lithostratigraphic model is introduced to show where data are located versus regions where interpolations are included. Models of confidence can be based on (1) expert judgment, (2) geostatistical analysis, or (3) a simplified combination of these two methods. Linking of lithostratigraphic models and models of confidence provide guidelines for future characterization and modeling activities, as well as for design and construction of the Exploratory Studies Facility.

  15. Confidence Regions in Econometrics of Complex Variables Доверительные области в эконометрии комплексных переменных

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chanysheva Amina F.

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The article is a result of a complex study devoted to laying the foundation of the complex-valued economy – modern prospective direction in the field of socio-economic forecasting. The article is devoted to the issues of obtaining interval estimates for complex-valued linear regression equations. The author substantiates selection of the form of confidence regions and also considers three approaches to its building up. On the basis of the study, the article draws a conclusion that practically all factual values of the observed variable are inside the confidence region, calculated for confidence probability 95%. This testifies to a good selection of the model to the original data and effectiveness of the method of finding confidence regions offered in this article.Данная статья является результатом комплексного исследования, посвященного заложению основ комплекснозначной экономики – современного перспективного направления в области социально-экономического прогнозирования. Статья посвящена вопросам нахождения интервальных оценок для комплекснозначных уравнений линейной регрессии. Автор обосновывает выбор формы доверительных областей, а также рассматривает три подхода к их построению. В результате исследований сделан вывод, что практически все фактические значения наблюдаемой переменной находятся внутри доверительной области, рассчитанной для доверительной вероятности 95%. Это говорит о

  16. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  17. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  18. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  19. The construction of confidence in a perceptual decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Barttfeld, Pablo; Sigman, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making involves the selection of one out of many possible courses of action. A decision may bear on other decisions, as when humans seek a second medical opinion before undergoing a risky surgical intervention. These “meta-decisions” are mediated by confidence judgments—the degree to which decision-makers consider that a choice is likely to be correct. We studied how subjective confidence is constructed from noisy sensory evidence. The psychophysical kernels used to convert sensory information into choice and confidence decisions were precisely reconstructed measuring the impact of small fluctuations in sensory input. This is shown in two independent experiments in which human participants made a decision about the direction of motion of a set of randomly moving dots, or compared the brightness of a group of fluctuating bars, followed by a confidence report. The results of both experiments converged to show that: (1) confidence was influenced by evidence during a short window of time at the initial moments of the decision, and (2) confidence was influenced by evidence for the selected choice but was virtually blind to evidence for the non-selected choice. Our findings challenge classical models of subjective confidence—which posit that the difference of evidence in favor of each choice is the seed of the confidence signal. PMID:23049504

  20. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2016-11-11

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity.

  1. Assured Human-Autonomy Interaction through Machine Self-Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, Matthew

    Autonomous systems employ many layers of approximations in order to operate in increasingly uncertain and unstructured environments. The complexity of these systems makes it hard for a user to understand the systems capabilities, especially if the user is not an expert. However, if autonomous systems are to be used efficiently, their users must trust them appropriately. This purpose of this work is to implement and assess an 'assurance' that an autonomous system can provide to the user to elicit appropriate trust. Specifically, the autonomous system's perception of its own capabilities is reported to the user as the self-confidence assurance. The self-confidence assurance should allow the user to more quickly and accurately assess the autonomous system's capabilities, generating appropriate trust in the autonomous system. First, this research defines self-confidence and discusses what the self-confidence assurance is attempting to communicate to the user. Then it provides a framework for computing the autonomous system's self-confidence as a function of self-confidence factors which correspond to individual elements in the autonomous system's process. In order to explore this idea, self-confidence is implemented on an autonomous system that uses a mixed observability Markov decision process model to solve a pursuit-evasion problem on a road network. The implementation of a factor assessing the goodness of the autonomy's expected performance is focused on in particular. This work highlights some of the issues and considerations in the design of appropriate metrics for the self-confidence factors, and provides the basis for future research for computing self-confidence in autonomous systems.

  2. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Validation, Uncertainty, and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Logan, R W; Nitta, C K

    2002-12-06

    This paper represents a summary of our methodology for Verification and Validation and Uncertainty Quantification. A graded scale methodology is presented and related to other concepts in the literature. We describe the critical nature of quantified Verification and Validation with Uncertainty Quantification at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after Verification and Validation has contributed to Uncertainty Quantification at specified confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. Verification and Validation methods for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence and we summarize briefly how this can lead to a Value Engineering methodology for investment strategy.

  4. Cell surface display of cold-active esterase EstPc with the use of a new autotransporter from Psychrobacter cryohalolentis K5(T).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrovskaya, L E; Novototskaya-Vlasova, K A; Kryukova, E A; Rivkina, E M; Dolgikh, D A; Kirpichnikov, M P

    2015-01-01

    We have cloned the gene coding for AT877-a new predicted member of the autotransporter protein family with an esterase passenger domain from permafrost bacterium Psychrobacter cryohalolentis K5(T). Expression of AT877 gene in Escherichia coli resulted in accumulation of the recombinant autotransporter in the outer membrane fraction and at the surface of the induced cells. AT877 displayed maximum hydrolytic activity toward medium-chain p-nitrophenyl esters (C8-C10) at 50 °C and was resistant to the presence of several metal ions, organic solvents and detergents. Previously, we have described a cold-active esterase EstPc from the same bacterium which possesses high activity at low temperatures and relatively high thermal stability. To construct a cell surface display system for EstPc, the hybrid autotransporter gene coding for EstPc with the α-helical linker and the translocator domain from AT877 was constructed and expressed in E. coli. According to the results of the cell fractionation studies and esterase activity measurements, the EstPc passenger was successfully displayed at the surface of the induced cells. It demonstrated a temperature optimum at 15-25 °C and a substrate preference toward p-nitrophenyl butyrate (C4). Obtained results provide a new example of the biotechnologically relevant enzyme from the permafrost microbial community with potential applications for the conversion of short- and medium-chain ester substrates and a basis for the construction of a new cell surface display platform.

  5. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  6. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)

  7. Cultural Competence Knowledge and Confidence After Classroom Activities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jagannath Mohan Muzumdar; Monica Holiday-Goodman; Curtis Black; Mary Powers

    2010-01-01

      To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum...

  8. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  9. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario A Bertella

    Full Text Available Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  10. Rasch modeling of accuracy and confidence measures from cognitive tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Insu; Lee, Jihyun; Stankov, Lazar; Wilson, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The use of IRT models has not been rigorously applied in studies of the relationship between test-takers' confidence and accuracy. This study applied the Rasch measurement models to investigate the relationship between test-takers' confidence and accuracy on English proficiency tests, proposing potentially useful measures of under or overconfidence. The Rasch approach provided the scaffolding to formulate indices that can assess the discrepancy between confidence and accuracy at the item or total test level, as well as at particular ability levels locally. In addition, a "disattenuated" measure of association between accuracy and confidence, which takes measurement error into account, was obtained through a multidimensional Rasch modeling of the two constructs where the latent variance-covariance structure is directly estimated from the data. The results indicate that the participants tend to show overconfidence bias in their own cognitive abilities.

  11. Supervised and Unsupervised Speaker Adaptation Using Confidence Measure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIUJia; LIHusheng; LIUJing; LIURunsheng

    2003-01-01

    The speaker adaptation is an effective means of improving the performance of a speech recognition system,and it can be divided into supervised or unsupervised speaker adaptation.In this paper a kind of confidence measure based on the word lattice structure is proposed and is used for the supervised and unsupervised speaker adaptation.The reliability of the recognition results can be evaluated by the confidence measure,and the uncertain parts in the recognition results can be removed or be given smaller weights in the speaker adaptation process.The experiments show that the confidence can effectively eliminate the suspicious speech and improve the performance of the supervised and unsupervised adaptation considerably.The performance difference between the supervised and unsupervised adaptation is reduced by using the confidence measure based on the word lattice structure.

  12. The 'U-turn': Business confidence in a Karoo town

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-08-26

    Aug 26, 2011 ... confidence is a valuable tool for measuring the prevailing economic climate ..... West Province), Kimberley Business Service Centre databases, ... Small Business Research Board (SBRB) in the United States of America (USA).

  13. Word Spotting Based on a posterior Measure of Keyword Confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郝杰; 李星

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, an approach of keyword confidence estimation is developed that well combines acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) scores.An a posteriori (AP) confidence measure and its forward-backward calculating algorithm are deduced. A zero false alarm (ZFA) assumption is proposed for evaluating relative confidence measures by word spotting task. In a word spotting experiment with a vocabulary of 240keywords, the keyword accuracy under the AP measure is above 94%, which well approaches its theoretical upper limit. In addition, a syllable lattice Hidden Markov Model (SLHMM) is formulated and a unified view of confidence estimation, word spotting, optimal path search,and N-best syllable re-scoring is presented. The proposed AP measure can be easily applied to various speech recognition systems as well.

  14. Empirical Likelihood Ratio Confidence Interval for Positively Associated Series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun-jian Zhang

    2007-01-01

    Empirical likelihood is discussed by using the blockwise technique for strongly stationary,positively associated random variables.Our results show that the statistics is asymptotically chi-square distributed and the corresponding confidence interval can be constructed.

  15. Helping College Students Build up Confidence in Listening

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘鹃

    2015-01-01

    Listening is the basis of communication,so fostering students’listening ability is very important.Though improving students’listening is very difficult,to help them build up their confidence in listening is an effective way.

  16. Helping College Students Build up Confidence in Listening

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘鹃

    2015-01-01

    Listening is the basis of communication,so fostering students’ listening ability is very important.Though improving students’ listening is very difficult,to help them build up their confidence in listening is an effective way.

  17. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  18. Market entry decisions: effects of absolute and relative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolger, Fergus; Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

    2008-01-01

    In a market entry game, the number of entrants usually approaches game-theoretic equilibrium quickly, but in real-world markets business start-ups typically exceed market capacity, resulting in chronically high failure rates and suboptimal industry profits. Excessive entry has been attributed to overconfidence arising when expected payoffs depend partly on skill. In an experimental test of this hypothesis, 96 participants played 24 rounds of a market entry game, with expected payoffs dependent partly on skill on half the rounds, after their confidence was manipulated and measured. The results provide direct support for the hypothesis that high levels of confidence are largely responsible for excessive entry, and they suggest that absolute confidence, independent of interpersonal comparison, rather than confidence about one's abilities relative to others, drives excessive entry decisions when skill is involved.

  19. Storage free confidence estimation for the TAGE branch predictor

    OpenAIRE

    Seznec A.

    2011-01-01

    For the past 15 years, it has been shown that confidence estimation of branch prediction can be used for various usages such as fetch gating or throttling for power saving or for controlling resource allocation policies in a SMT processor. In many proposals, using extra hardware and particularly storage tables for branch confidence estimators has been considered as a worthwhile silicon investment. The TAGE predictor presented in 2006 is so far considered as the state-of-the-art conditional br...

  20. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    OpenAIRE

    Jonge, de, WJM Wim

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general consumer confidence in the safety of food is further conceptualised, and embedded within an integrative framework that incorporates both its antecedents and consequences. General consumer confiden...

  1. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  2. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-01-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable “feeling of knowing” or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  3. National study of parental confidence in general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freed, Gary L; Spike, Neil; O'Hara, Jonathan; Hiscock, Harriet; Rhodes, Anthea L

    2017-09-03

    To assess a national sample of Australian parental confidence in general practitioner (GP) care for illness and injury for their children. Cross-sectional, internet-based survey of a national, representative sample of parents of children birth - 17 years in Australia was used. Purposeful recruitment was used to achieve a national, representative sample of 2100 Australian parents, reflective of demographic and geographic distribution based on census data. Parents were asked to indicate their degree of confidence in a GP to handle medical problems as well as their preference for, and use of, paediatric speciality care for their children. Fewer than half of parents (44%) reported that they were completely confident in a GP to provide general care as defined as 'can handle almost all general health issues for my child'. A slightly greater proportion of parents (56%) were completely confident in a GP to provide care for minor injuries, defined as injuries not requiring an X-ray. Greater confidence in general care was seen among parents >40 years of age and those whose GP is always bulk billed. Parental confidence in GPs is an important issue. Our findings that fewer than half of parents are completely confident in their GP to provide general care to their child may be an influencing factor on current health-care utilisation trends. The potential implications of low parental confidence in GPs are greater numbers of emergency department presentations for children with lower urgency conditions and increased referrals of children for specialty care. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  4. Stock market confidence and copula-based Markov models

    OpenAIRE

    Jovanovic, Mario

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a descriptive model of stock market confidence conditional on stock market uncertainty in a first-order copula-based Markov approach. By using monthly closing prices of the VIX as a stock market uncertainty proxy for the United States and the copula of Fang et al. (2000) a stable nonlinear relation between confidence and uncertainty is derived. Based on the existence of a specific dependence structure uncertainty-reducing policies by US institutions w...

  5. Representing Autonomous Systems Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Representing Autonomous Systems’ Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries Andrew R. Hutchins, M. L. Cummings Humans and Autonomy...characteristics of such interactions. This is particularly problematic when task demands approach, or exceed, the competency boundaries of assigned...Systems’ Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT

  6. Constructing Confidence Bands for the Hodrick-Prescott Filter

    OpenAIRE

    David E. Giles

    2012-01-01

    By noting that the Hodrick-Prescott filter can be expressed as the solution to a particular regression problem, we are able to show how to construct confidence bands for the filtered time-series. This procedure requires that the data are stationary. The construction of such confidence bands is illustrated using annual U.S. data for real value-added output; and monthly U.S. data for the unemployment rate.

  7. Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Ece Oral; Dilara Ece; Turknur Hamsici

    2005-01-01

    The two major aims of this study are, firstly, to receive valuable insight into the Business Tendency Survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and, secondly, to construct a real sector confidence index by using the questions of the Business Tendency Survey. The most important motivation behind constructing a real sector confidence index is to provide an indicator of short-term business conditions for economic policy makers and business managers by examining business managers' view...

  8. The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Lilia Karnizova; Hashmat Khan

    2010-01-01

    When stock prices rise, so does aggregate consumer spending. A traditional explanation for this phenomenon is based on wealth effects. However, movements of the stock market may affect consumer spending indirectly, by influencing consumer confidence. A bullish stock market may make consumers feel more optimistic about the future of the aggregate economy, and hence increase their spending. This paper investigates the existence of the consumer confidence channel of asset price transmission in C...

  9. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Löwer

    Full Text Available Next generation sequencing (NGS has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR, to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence. All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50, none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set.

  10. Overdistribution illusions: Categorical judgments produce them, confidence ratings reduce them.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Nakamura, K; Reyna, V F; Holliday, R E

    2017-01-01

    Overdistribution is a form of memory distortion in which an event is remembered as belonging to too many episodic states, states that are logically or empirically incompatible with each other. We investigated a response formatting method of suppressing 2 basic types of overdistribution, disjunction and conjunction illusions, which parallel some classic illusions in the judgment and decision making literature. In this method, subjects respond to memory probes by rating their confidence that test cues belong to specific episodic states (e.g., presented on List 1, presented on List 2), rather than by making the usual categorical judgments about those states. The central prediction, which was derived from the task calibration principle of fuzzy-trace theory, was that confidence ratings should reduce overdistribution by diminishing subjects' reliance on noncompensatory gist memories. The data of 3 experiments agreed with that prediction. In Experiment 1, there were reliable disjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. In Experiment 2, both response formats produced reliable disjunction illusions, but those for confidence ratings were much smaller than those for categorical judgments. In Experiment 3, there were reliable conjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. Apropos of recent controversies over confidence-accuracy correlations in memory, such correlations were positive for hits, negative for correct rejections, and the 2 types of correlations were of equal magnitude. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-11-30

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Recursive confidence band construction for an unknown distribution function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Given a sample X1,...,Xn of independent observations from an unknown continuous distribution function F, the problem of constructing a confidence band for F is considered, which is a fundamental problem in statistical inference. This confidence band provides simultaneous inferences on all quantiles and also on all of the cumulative probabilities of the distribution, and so they are among the most important inference procedures that address the issue of multiplicity. A fully nonparametric approach is taken where no assumptions are made about the distribution function F. Historical approaches to this problem, such as Kolmogorov's famous () procedure, represent some of the earliest inference methodologies that address the issue of multiplicity. This is because a confidence band at a given confidence level 1-α allows inferences on all of the quantiles of the distribution, and also on all of the cumulative probabilities, at that specified confidence level. In this paper it is shown how recursive methodologies can be employed to construct both one-sided and two-sided confidence bands of various types. The first approach operates by putting bounds on the cumulative probabilities at the data points, and a recursive integration approach is described. The second approach operates by providing bounds on certain specified quantiles of the distribution, and its implementation using recursive summations of multinomial probabilities is described. These recursive methodologies are illustrated with examples, and R code is available for their implementation.

  13. A Reformulation of Support Vector Machines for General Confidence Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yuhong; Schuurmans, Dale

    We present a generalized view of support vector machines that does not rely on a Euclidean geometric interpretation nor even positive semidefinite kernels. We base our development instead on the confidence matrix—the matrix normally determined by the direct (Hadamard) product of the kernel matrix with the label outer-product matrix. It turns out that alternative forms of confidence matrices are possible, and indeed useful. By focusing on the confidence matrix instead of the underlying kernel, we can derive an intuitive principle for optimizing example weights to yield robust classifiers. Our principle initially recovers the standard quadratic SVM training criterion, which is only convex for kernel-derived confidence measures. However, given our generalized view, we are then able to derive a principled relaxation of the SVM criterion that yields a convex upper bound. This relaxation is always convex and can be solved with a linear program. Our new training procedure obtains similar generalization performance to standard SVMs on kernel-derived confidence functions, but achieves even better results with indefinite confidence functions.

  14. Increasing general practitioners' confidence and self-efficacy in managing obesity: a mixed methods study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haesler, Emily; Elmitt, Nicholas; van Weel, Chris; Douglas, Kirsty

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Internationally, general practitioners (GPs) are being encouraged to take an active role in the care of their patients with obesity, but as yet there are few tools for them to implement within their clinics. This study assessed the self-efficacy and confidence of GPs before and after implementing a weight management programme in their practice. Design Nested mixed methods study within a 6-month feasibility trial. Setting 4 urban general practices and 1 rural general practice in Australia. Participants All vocationally registered GPs in the local region were eligible and invited to participate; 12 GPs were recruited and 11 completed the study. Interventions The Change Programme is a structured GP-delivered weight management programme that uses the therapeutic relationship between the patient and their GP to provide holistic and person-centred care. It is an evidence-based programme founded on Australian guidelines for the management of obesity in primary care. Primary outcome measures Self-efficacy and confidence of the GPs when managing obesity was measured using a quantitative survey consisting of Likert scales in conjunction with pro forma interviews. Results In line with social cognitive theory, GPs who experienced performance mastery during the pilot intervention had an increase in their confidence and self-efficacy. In particular, confidence in assisting and arranging care for patients was improved as demonstrated in the survey and supported by the qualitative data. Most importantly from the qualitative data, GPs described changing their usual practice and felt more confident to discuss obesity with all of their patients. Conclusions A structured management tool for obesity care in general practice can improve GP confidence and self-efficacy in managing obesity. Enhancing GP ‘professional self-efficacy’ is the first step to improving obesity management within general practice. Trial registration number ACTRN12614001192673; Results. PMID:28132016

  15. Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale of maternal confidence assessment for use in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Lívia W; Bernardi, Juliana R; Matos, Salete de; Silva, Clecio H da; Goldani, Marcelo Z; Bosa, Vera L

    2017-08-23

    To transculturally adapt and validate the Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale to the Brazilian Portuguese language and culture and verify the combination of the results with the maternal sociodemographic characteristics. This is a validation and transcultural adaptation nestled in a longitudinal and observational study in Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, assessing mother-infant pairs from different gestational and perinatal environments. The original authors authorized the translation into Brazilian Portuguese, unified version creation, back-translation, analysis by specialists, final version implementation, and acceptance. Cronbach's alpha analysis was performed. The Kruskal-Wallis test with post-hoc Dunn's test was used to compare the study groups. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, obtained through a questionnaire in the first 24-48h of the newborns' life, were associated with maternal results by the Brazilian version of the scale, using Spearman's correlation and Mann-Whitney's test. The sample consisted of 251 postpartum women, with the confidence maternal questionnaire being applied at 15 days postpartum. The median score of the mothers' confidence was 40.00 (37.00-43.00). The protocol obtained a Cronbach's alpha of 0.717. There were significant weak positive correlations between maternal confidence and age (p=0.013, r=0.157) and between maternal confidence and schooling (p=0.048, r=0.125). Additionally, a significant association was observed between maternal confidence and parity (p=0.030). The transcultural adaptation and validation of the confidence maternal questionnaire into Brazilian Portuguese language and culture showed good reliability for this sample. The results of its use demonstrated that maternal confidence was associated with schooling, age and parity. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  16. Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaylson Jair da Silveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

  17. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  18. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  19. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  20. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  1. Enhancing women's confidence for physiologic birth: Maternity care providers' perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saftner, Melissa A; Neerland, Carrie; Avery, Melissa D

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this research study was to explore MCP's beliefs and attitudes about physiologic birth and to identify components of antenatal care that providers believe may impact a woman's confidence for physiologic labor and birth. This qualitative descriptive study included maternity care providers (N=31) in the Midwestern United States. Providers participated in semi-structured interviews to describe their beliefs about physiologic birth, their role in providing information to women and specific care practices to promote women's confidence for physiologic birth. Six themes emerged including: positive beliefs about physiologic birth, trusted relationship with provider, woman centered care, education and knowledge, barriers to confidence, and antenatal practices to enhance confidence. Variations in beliefs occurred amongst providers with different training (i.e., physicians and midwives). Maternity care providers, including midwives, family physicians and obstetrician-gynecologists, overwhelmingly support a physiologic approach to labor and birth. These providers had a number of suggestions about how antenatal care could be enhanced in an effort to increase women's confidence during the antenatal period. Supporting physiologic birth is imperative for providers who wish to enhance outcomes for mothers and babies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. New graduate nurses' experiences about lack of professional confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Jennifer

    2016-07-01

    Professional confidence is an essential trait for new graduate nurses to possess in order to provide quality patient care in today's complex hospital setting. However, many new graduates are entering the workforce without it and this remains to be explored. This study describes how new graduate nurses accounted for their lack of professional confidence upon entry into professional practice and how it developed during their first year of practice in the hospital setting. Two face-to-face, individual interviews of 12 participants were utilized to capture the lived experiences of new graduate nurses to gain an understanding of this phenomenon. After manual content analysis seven themes emerged: communication is huge, making mistakes, disconnect between school and practice, independence, relationship building, positive feedback is important, and gaining experience. The findings indicate that the development of professional confidence is a dynamic process that occurs throughout the first year of practice. New graduate nurses must experience both positive and negative circumstances in order to move toward the attainment of professional confidence. Knowing this, nurse educators in academia as well as in the hospital setting may better support the development of professional confidence both before and during the first year of practice.

  3. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  4. Crisis Prevention Centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for the Middle East

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are important in this area, and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, interrelated categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. Technology is required for establishing communication systems to ensure the timely flow of information between countries and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues, thereby supporting the implementation of confidence building measures and treaties. Technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries, thereby providing an important channel for improving relationships. Potential first steps for a CPC in the Middle Ease could include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a ``Hot Line` in bilateral and multilateral-lateral emergency situations. Bilateral cooperative monitoring centers could be established to assist with implementation of agreements. A centrally located CPC could serve as a regional communications hub, coordinating a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities. Specific recommendations for confidence building activities are discussed.

  5. Confidence as a Common Currency between Vision and Audition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent de Gardelle

    Full Text Available The idea of a common currency underlying our choice behaviour has played an important role in sciences of behaviour, from neurobiology to psychology and economics. However, while it has been mainly investigated in terms of values, with a common scale on which goods would be evaluated and compared, the question of a common scale for subjective probabilities and confidence in particular has received only little empirical investigation so far. The present study extends previous work addressing this question, by showing that confidence can be compared across visual and auditory decisions, with the same precision as for the comparison of two trials within the same task. We discuss the possibility that confidence could serve as a common currency when describing our choices to ourselves and to others.

  6. Cultural competence knowledge and confidence after classroom activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzumdar, Jagannath Mohan; Holiday-Goodman, Monica; Black, Curtis; Powers, Mary

    2010-10-11

    To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum. Cultural competence material was covered in the second-year PharmD curriculum through lectures, laboratories, and an experiential/out-of-class assignment. Eighty-five second-year (P2) pharmacy students completed a survey which assessed influence of classroom activities related to cultural competence. Mean values for knowledge and perceived confidence were significantly higher for posttest compared to pretest (p activities. Focus groups were used to solicit students' opinions on instructional effectiveness, relevance of activities, and areas for enhancement. The cultural competency curriculum increased pharmacy students' awareness of and confidence in addressing cultural diversity issues that affect pharmaceutical care delivery.

  7. Confidence Intervals of Variance Functions in Generalized Linear Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Zhou; Dao-ji Li

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we introduce an appealing nonparametric method for estimating variance and conditional variance functions in generalized linear models (GLMs), when designs are fixed points and random variables respectively. Bias-corrected confidence bands are proposed for the (conditional) variance by local linear smoothers. Nonparametric techniques are developed in deriving the bias-corrected confidence intervals of the (conditional) variance. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator is established and show that the bias-corrected confidence bands asymptotically have the correct coverage properties. A small simulation is performed when unknown regression parameter is estimated by nonparametric quasi-likelihood. The results are also applicable to nonparametric autoregressive times series model with heteroscedastic conditional variance.

  8. Confidence and certainty: distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, Alexandre; Drugowitsch, Jan; Kepecs, Adam

    2017-01-01

    When facing uncertainty, adaptive behavioral strategies demand that the brain performs probabilistic computations. In this probabilistic framework, the notion of certainty and confidence would appear to be closely related, so much so that it is tempting to conclude that these two concepts are one and the same. We argue that there are computational reasons to distinguish between these two concepts. Specifically, we propose that confidence should be defined as the probability that a decision or a proposition, overt or covert, is correct given the evidence, a critical quantity in complex sequential decisions. We suggest that the term certainty should be reserved to refer to the encoding of all other probability distributions over sensory and cognitive variables. We also discuss strategies for studying the neural codes for confidence and certainty and argue that clear definitions of neural codes are essential to understanding the relative contributions of various cortical areas to decision making. PMID:26906503

  9. Increasing Knowledge and Confidence in Behavioral Change: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frates, Elizabeth P; Xiao, Ryan C; Simeon, Kate; McCargo, Tracie; Guo, Michelle; Stern, Theodore A

    2016-11-24

    To assess whether and how effectively an interactive presentation about lifestyle medicine could impact the knowledge and attitudes of medical students to prepare them for managing chronic conditions in their patients. Chronic diseases are increasingly prevalent and problematic. Although chronic disease management involves lifestyle modification, few physicians are adequately trained in effective motivational interventions. We surveyed first- and second-year Harvard Medical School students in October 2015 before and after a presentation on lifestyle medicine and quantified changes in their knowledge, attitudes/confidence, and skills. Medical students learned the basics of behavioral change after a 1-hour presentation, and their confidence with regard to implementing interventions increased. Median scores of confidence in counseling patients on lifestyle changes improved as did their ability to counsel patients on exercise, nutrition, sleep, stress management, and smoking cessation. After a brief intervention, medical students can learn principles of behavioral management and how to implement the skills with patients suffering from chronic illnesses.

  10. Knowledge and Confidence of a Convenience Sample of Australasian Emergency Doctors in Managing Dental Emergencies: Results of a Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Samaei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. We aimed to determine Australasian Specialist Emergency Physicians’ and Emergency Physicians in Training (Trainees’ level of knowledge of common dental emergencies. We also explored confidence in managing dental emergencies; predictors of confidence and knowledge; and preferences for further dental education. Methods. A questionnaire was distributed electronically (September 2011 and directly (November 2011 to Fellows and Trainees of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine. It explored demographics, confidence, knowledge of dental emergencies, and educational preferences. Results. Response rate was 13.6% (464/3405 and college members were proportionally represented by region. Fewer than half (186/446; 42% had received dental training. Sixty-two percent (244/391, 95% CI 57.5–67.1 passed (>50% a knowledge test. More than 60% incorrectly answered questions on dental fracture, periodontal abscess, tooth eruption dates, and ulcerative gingivitis. Forty percent (166/416 incorrectly answered a question about Ludwig’s Angina. Eighty-three percent (360/433 were confident in the pharmacological management of toothache but only 26% (112/434 confident in recognizing periodontal disease. Knowledge was correlated with confidence (r=0.488. Interactive workshops were preferred by most (386/415, 93%. Conclusions. The knowledge and confidence of Australasian Emergency Physicians and Trainees in managing dental emergencies are varied, yet correlated. Interactive training sessions in dental emergencies are warranted.

  11. Knowledge and Confidence of a Convenience Sample of Australasian Emergency Doctors in Managing Dental Emergencies: Results of a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaei, Hossein; Weiland, Tracey Joy; Dilley, Stuart; Jelinek, George Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Background. We aimed to determine Australasian Specialist Emergency Physicians' and Emergency Physicians in Training (Trainees') level of knowledge of common dental emergencies. We also explored confidence in managing dental emergencies; predictors of confidence and knowledge; and preferences for further dental education. Methods. A questionnaire was distributed electronically (September 2011) and directly (November 2011) to Fellows and Trainees of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine. It explored demographics, confidence, knowledge of dental emergencies, and educational preferences. Results. Response rate was 13.6% (464/3405) and college members were proportionally represented by region. Fewer than half (186/446; 42%) had received dental training. Sixty-two percent (244/391, 95% CI 57.5–67.1) passed (>50%) a knowledge test. More than 60% incorrectly answered questions on dental fracture, periodontal abscess, tooth eruption dates, and ulcerative gingivitis. Forty percent (166/416) incorrectly answered a question about Ludwig's Angina. Eighty-three percent (360/433) were confident in the pharmacological management of toothache but only 26% (112/434) confident in recognizing periodontal disease. Knowledge was correlated with confidence (r = 0.488). Interactive workshops were preferred by most (386/415, 93%). Conclusions. The knowledge and confidence of Australasian Emergency Physicians and Trainees in managing dental emergencies are varied, yet correlated. Interactive training sessions in dental emergencies are warranted. PMID:25821600

  12. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  13. Rejection Mechanism in 2D Bounded Confidence Provides more Conformity

    CERN Document Server

    Huet, Sylvie; Jager, Wander

    2014-01-01

    We add a rejection mechanism (negative influence) into a two-dimensions bounded confidence model. The principle is that one shifts aways from a close attitude of one's interlocutor, when there is a strong disagreement on the other attitude. The model shows metastable clusters, which maintain themselves through opposite influences of competitor clusters. Our analysis and first experiments support the hypothesis that the number of clusters grows linearly with the inverse of the uncertainty, whereas this growth is quadratic in the bounded confidence model.

  14. Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schinkel, Stefan [Interdisciplinary Centre for Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Potsdam (Germany)], E-mail: schinkel@agnld.uni-potsdam.de; Marwan, N. [Interdisciplinary Centre for Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Potsdam (Germany); Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany); Dimigen, O. [Department of Psychology, University of Potsdam (Germany); Kurths, J. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany); Department of Physics, Humboldt University at Berlin (Germany)

    2009-06-15

    In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.

  15. Correlational study of psychological variables self-confidence and anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria González Campos

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The purpose of this study is to analyze the concurrent validity of the psychological variables self-confidence and anxiety among the psychological measurement instruments: Psychological Characteristics Questionnaire related to Sports Performance (CPRD; Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2 (CSAI-2; and Sports Psychological Inventory LOEHR. For this purpose, a correlational study was conducted between the selected variables and pertinent aspects of the measurement instruments. The study has revealed that the psychological variables self-confidence and anxiety are relevant in all three instruments, although not in all of the selected items.

  16. Building Scientific Confidence in Read-Across: Progress in ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presentation at the 41st Annual Winter Meeting of The Toxicology Forum - From Assay to Assessment: Incorporating High Throughput Strategies into Health and Safety Evaluations on Building Scientific Confidence in Read-Across: Progress in using HT Data to inform Read-Across Performance Presentation at the 41st Annual Winter Meeting of The Toxicology Forum - From Assay to Assessment: Incorporating High Throughput Strategies into Health and Safety Evaluations on Building Scientific Confidence in Read-Across: Progress in using HT Data to inform Read-Across Performance

  17. STEM视角下的美国科学课程教材分析--以FOSS K-5年级科学教材为例%An Analysis Study of American Science Textbooks from STEM Perspective-Taking the FOSS K-5 Edition as an Example

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周鹏琴; 徐唱; 张韵; 李芒

    2016-01-01

    为探究美国科学课程的教学内容特点,从而了解美国科学教育的发展状况,该文以STEM教育为视角,应用定量与质性相结合的研究方法,对美国FOSS K-5年级加利福尼亚2007年版的科学教材SCIENCE RESOURCES知识点和教学活动等内容进行分析。从教材知识点的整体分布,物质科学、生命科学、地球科学三大主题知识点分布以及教学活动等其他内容三个方面获得研究结果。结合已有研究,得出结论:教材注重学科间的相互渗透与干涉,强调STEM教育视野下综合性的科学素养,体现STEM教育对生活的价值。最后获得启示:我国科学教育发展应树立正确的科学教育理念、提高学科地位、建立完备的课程体系、充分发挥教师的作用、实现从知识到实践的跨越、加强实证研究。%In order to explore the teaching content characteristics of American Science Curriculum and understand the development of Science Education in the United States, this study analyzed the knowledge points and teaching activities of FOSS Grades K-5 California Edition © 2007 “SCIENCE RESOURCES” from STEM perspective, combining quantitative and qualitative research methods. The knowledge points of the three main themes (Physical Sciences, Life Sciences and Earth Sciences) and teaching activities in the textbooks were coded and counted. The result shows that: American science textbook focus on the mutual penetration and interference between subjects, the comprehensive scientiifc literacy, and the value of STEM education to life. Finally, attain the enlightenment about developing the Science Education: we should establish correct science educational concept, improve the subject status, establish a comprehensive curriculum system, give full play to the role of teachers, realize the leap from knowledge to practice and reinforce the empirical research.

  18. Continued Commitment Not Unconditional——Business Confidence Survey 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Yan

    2010-01-01

    @@ The European Union Chamber of Commerce Business Confidence Survey 2010 was released by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants on June 29,2010,which surveyed over 500 European companies based in China between March and April of 2010.

  19. Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippin, Antonio; Paccagnella, Marco

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the role played by self-confidence, modeled as beliefs about one's ability, in shaping task choices. We propose a model in which fully rational agents exploit all the available information to update their beliefs using Bayes' rule, eventually learning their true type. We show that when the learning process does not…

  20. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    Vanden Broeck, Renilde

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC) in 2007. (1/2 page)

  1. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2007." (1/2 page)

  2. Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal's gamma coefficient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman-Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the

  3. Confidence intervals for intraclass correlation coefficients in variance components models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demetrashvili, Nino; Wit, Ernst C; Van Den Heuvel, Edwin R.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for intraclass correlation coefficients in agreement studies with continuous outcomes are model-specific and no generic approach exists. This paper provides two generic approaches for intraclass correlation coefficients of the form -' q = 1 Q σ q 2 / (-' q = 1 Q σ q 2 + -' p = Q

  4. The role of consumer confidence in creating customer loyalty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ou, Yi-Chun; de Vries, Lisette; Wiesel, Thorsten; Verhoef, Pieter

    2014-01-01

    How can firms retain customers during recessions? To answer this question, we investigate the moderating role of consumer confidence (CC) on the effects of three types of crucial customer loyalty strategies. These strategies are value equity (VE), brand equity (BE), and relationship equity (RE), col

  5. Building Academic Confidence in English Language Learners in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez, Alejandra

    2014-01-01

    Non-English speaking students lack the confidence and preparation to be verbally actively engaged in the classroom. Students may frequently display hesitation in learning to speak English, and may also lack a teacher's guidance in becoming proficient English speakers. The purpose of this research is to examine how teachers build academic…

  6. The Confidence Model: An Alternative Approach to Alleviating Communication Apprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Arden K.

    Recognizing that each student is different in terms of communication apprehension and needed skills, the confidence model attempts to provide instruction in anxiety reduction and skill development, combining the features of both the behavior therapy and the rhetoritherapy theories of communication apprehension. The rational emotive therapy used in…

  7. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  8. Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

    2013-01-01

    Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

  9. State FFA Officers' Confidence and Trustworthiness of Biotechnology Information Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingenbach, Gary J.; Rutherford, Tracy A.

    2007-01-01

    Are state FFA officers' awareness levels of agricultural topics reported in mass media superior to those who do not serve in leadership roles? The purpose of this study was to determine elected state FFA officers' awareness of biotechnology, and their confidence and trust of biotechnology information sources. Descriptive survey methods were used…

  10. SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela-Cristina VOICU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

  11. The role of consumer confidence in creating customer loyalty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ou, Yi-Chun; de Vries, Lisette; Wiesel, Thorsten; Verhoef, Pieter

    2014-01-01

    How can firms retain customers during recessions? To answer this question, we investigate the moderating role of consumer confidence (CC) on the effects of three types of crucial customer loyalty strategies. These strategies are value equity (VE), brand equity (BE), and relationship equity (RE), col

  12. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  13. Confidence building on Euro convergence: evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied vola

  14. Confidence building on Euro convergence: evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  15. Confidence intervals for intraclass correlation coefficients in variance components models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demetrashvili, Nino; Wit, Ernst C; Van Den Heuvel, Edwin R.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for intraclass correlation coefficients in agreement studies with continuous outcomes are model-specific and no generic approach exists. This paper provides two generic approaches for intraclass correlation coefficients of the form -' q = 1 Q σ q 2 / (-' q = 1 Q σ q 2 + -' p = Q

  16. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A.; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2017-01-01

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often…

  17. Confidence bands for measured economically optimal nitrogen rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    While numerous researchers have computed economically optimal N rate (EONR) values from measured yield – N rate data, nearly all have neglected to compute or estimate the statistical reliability of these EONR values. In this study, a simple method for computing EONR and its confidence bands is descr...

  18. Faculty Expressions of (No) Confidence in Institutional Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantz, Alan C.; Lawson, Jonathan N.

    2017-01-01

    Although institutions of higher education rarely crumble and fall in the wake of votes of no confidence in their leadership--in presidents, senior administrators, or even governing boards--those expressions of discontent do have meaning. They suggest something awry at the institution, and even the potential to precipitate change. They also present…

  19. Does Confidence Predict Out-of-Domain Effort?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prokudina, Elena; Renneboog, Luc; Tobler, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Predicting worker’s effort is important in many different areas, but is often difficult. Using a laboratory experiment, we test the hypothesis that confidence, i.e. the person-specific beliefs about her abilities, can be used as a generic proxy to predict future effort provision. We measure

  20. Journal Afrika Statistika ISSN 0852-0305 Asymptotic Confidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    K is a real kernel weight function satisfying the folllowing conditions: K.1 For every x ... Asymptotic Confidence Bands for Density and Regression Functions in the Gaussian Case. 280 .... We quote the cross-validation and the plug-in methods.

  1. Evaluating semantic metamemory: Retrospective confidence judgements on the information subtest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladowsky-Brooks, Ricki L

    2016-12-12

    The current research explored the potential value of adding a supplementary measure of metamemory to the Information subtest of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale - Third Edition (WAIS-III in Study 1) or Fourth Edition (WAIS-IV in Study 2) in order to assess its relationship to other neuropsychological measures and to brain injury. After completing the Information subtest, neuropsychological examinees were asked to make retrospective confidence judgements (RCJ) by rating their answer certainty in the original order of item administration. In Study 1 (N = 52) and study 2 (N = 30), correct answers were rated with significantly more certainty than wrong answers (termed a "confidence gap"), and in both studies, higher confidence for wrong answers was significantly correlated with poorer performance on the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (for categories completed r = -.58 in Study 1, and r = -.47 in Study 2; for perseverative errors r = .44 in Study 1, and r = .45 in Study 2). In both studies, a number of examinees with positive CT findings had a very small or reversed confidence gap. These findings suggest that semantic metamemory is sensitive to executive functioning and brain injury and should be assessed in the neuropsychological examination.

  2. Continued misinterpretation of confidence intervals : Response to Miller and Ulrich

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Hoekstra, Rink; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-01-01

    Miller and Ulrich (2015) critique our claim (Hoekstra et al., Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21(5), 1157–1164, 2014), based on a survey given to researchers and students, of widespread misunderstanding of confidence intervals (CIs). They suggest that survey respondents may have interpreted the state

  3. The role of consumer confidence in creating customer loyalty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ou, Yi-Chun; de Vries, Lisette; Wiesel, Thorsten; Verhoef, Pieter

    How can firms retain customers during recessions? To answer this question, we investigate the moderating role of consumer confidence (CC) on the effects of three types of crucial customer loyalty strategies. These strategies are value equity (VE), brand equity (BE), and relationship equity (RE),

  4. Constructing seasonally adjusted data with time-varying confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.J. Koopman (Siem Jan); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractSeasonal adjustment methods transform observed time series data into estimated data, where these estimated data are constructed such that they show no or almost no seasonal variation. An advantage of model-based methods is that these can provide confidence intervals around the seasonally

  5. On Pupils' Self-Confidence in Mathematics: Gender Comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurmi, Anu; Hannula, Markku; Maijala, Hanna; Pehkonen, Erkki

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we will concentrate on pupils' self-confidence in mathematics, which belongs to pupils' mathematical beliefs in themselves, and beliefs on achievement in mathematics. Research described consists of a survey of more than 3000 fifth-graders and seventh-graders. Furthermore, 40 pupils participated in a qualitative follow-up study…

  6. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general

  7. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general

  8. Nutrition Knowledge, Attitudes, and Confidence of Australian General Practice Registrars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caryl A. Nowson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nutrition knowledge, attitudes, and confidence were assessed in General Practice Registrars (GPRs throughout Australia. Of approximately 6,000 GPRs invited to complete a nutrition survey, 93 respondents (2% completed the online survey, with 89 (20 males, 69 females providing demographic and educational information. Fifty-one percent had graduated from medical school within the last two years. From a list of 11 dietary strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk, respondents selected weight loss (84%, reducing saturated fats (90%, a maximum of two alcoholic drinks/day (82%, and increasing vegetables (83% as “highly appropriate” strategies, with only 51% indicating that salt reduction was “highly appropriate.” Two-thirds of registrars felt “moderately” (51% or “very” confident (16% providing nutrition advice. Most of them (84% recalled receiving information during training, but only 34% recalled having to demonstrate nutritional knowledge. The results indicate that this group of Australian GPRs understood most of the key dietary recommendations for reducing cardiovascular risk but lacked consensus regarding the recommendation to reduce salt intake and expressed mixed levels of confidence in providing nutritional advice. Appropriate nutrition education before and after graduation is recommended for GPRs to ensure the development of skills and confidence to support patients to make healthy dietary choices and help prevent chronic diseases.

  9. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce.

  10. Unexpected arousal modulates the influence of sensory noise on confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Micah; Frank, Darya; Schwarzkopf, D Samuel; Fardo, Francesca; Winston, Joel S; Hauser, Tobias U; Rees, Geraint

    2016-01-01

    Human perception is invariably accompanied by a graded feeling of confidence that guides metacognitive awareness and decision-making. It is often assumed that this arises solely from the feed-forward encoding of the strength or precision of sensory inputs. In contrast, interoceptive inference models suggest that confidence reflects a weighted integration of sensory precision and expectations about internal states, such as arousal. Here we test this hypothesis using a novel psychophysical paradigm, in which unseen disgust-cues induced unexpected, unconscious arousal just before participants discriminated motion signals of variable precision. Across measures of perceptual bias, uncertainty, and physiological arousal we found that arousing disgust cues modulated the encoding of sensory noise. Furthermore, the degree to which trial-by-trial pupil fluctuations encoded this nonlinear interaction correlated with trial level confidence. Our results suggest that unexpected arousal regulates perceptual precision, such that subjective confidence reflects the integration of both external sensory and internal, embodied states. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18103.001 PMID:27776633

  11. Panel Discussion and the Development of Students' Self Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Khoirul

    2016-01-01

    This study is to analyze the use of panel discussion towards the development of students' self confidence in learning the content subject of qualitative research concept. The study uses mix-method in which questionnaire and interview are conducted at the class of qualitative research of the sixth semester consisting twenty students especially…

  12. Does Students' Confidence in Their Ability in Mathematics Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Sarah; Croft, Tony; Harrison, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Research was conducted into first year engineering students' learning of mathematics in a university college during 2005-2007. The aims were to understand better students' confidences and explore which factors affected performance and how these were inter-related. Questionnaires were administered which posed questions regarding previous…

  13. Exploring the influence of self-confidence in product sketching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Passel, van Pepijn; Eggink, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    The development of a student’s skills during design education partly depends on the amount of selfconfidence. Optimizing the speed and level of growth can be done by influencing factors related to self-confidence that students have to cope with throughout their studies. Six main factors can be disti

  14. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  15. Another Look at Confidence Intervals: Proposal for a More Relevant and Transparent Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Biller, Steven D

    2014-01-01

    The behaviors of various confidence/credible interval constructions are explored, particularly in the region of low statistics where methods diverge most. We highlight a number of challenges, such as the treatment of nuisance parameters, and common misconceptions associated with such constructions. An informal survey of the literature suggests that confidence intervals are not always defined in relevant ways and are too often misinterpreted and/or misapplied. This can lead to seemingly paradoxical behaviours and flawed comparisons regarding the relevance of experimental results. We therefore conclude that there is a need for a more pragmatic strategy which recognizes that, while it is critical to objectively convey the information content of the data, there is also a strong desire to derive bounds on models and a natural instinct to interpret things this way. Accordingly, we attempt to put aside philosophical biases in favor of a practical view to propose a more transparent and self-consistent approach that b...

  16. Confidence Hills Mineralogy and Chemin Results from Base of Mt. Sharp, Pahrump Hills, Gale Crater, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanagh, P. D.; Bish, D. L.; Blake, D. F.; Vaniman, D. T.; Morris, R. V.; Ming, D. W.; Rampe, E. B.; Achilles, C. N.; Chipera, S. J.; Treiman, A. H.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity recently completed its fourth drill sampling of sediments on Mars. The Confidence Hills (CH) sample was drilled from a rock located in the Pahrump Hills region at the base of Mt. Sharp in Gale Crater. The CheMin X-ray diffractometer completed five nights of analysis on the sample, more than previously executed for a drill sample, and the data have been analyzed using Rietveld refinement and full-pattern fitting to determine quantitative mineralogy. Confidence Hills mineralogy has several important characteristics: 1) abundant hematite and lesser magnetite; 2) a 10 angstrom phyllosilicate; 3) multiple feldspars including plagioclase and alkali feldspar; 4) mafic silicates including forsterite, orthopyroxene, and two types of clinopyroxene (Ca-rich and Ca-poor), consistent with a basaltic source; and 5) minor contributions from sulfur-bearing species including jarosite.

  17. Is fear perception special? Evidence at the level of decision-making and subjective confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobbs, Dean; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    Fearful faces are believed to be prioritized in visual perception. However, it is unclear whether the processing of low-level facial features alone can facilitate such prioritization or whether higher-level mechanisms also contribute. We examined potential biases for fearful face perception at the levels of perceptual decision-making and perceptual confidence. We controlled for lower-level visual processing capacity by titrating luminance contrasts of backward masks, and the emotional intensity of fearful, angry and happy faces. Under these conditions, participants showed liberal biases in perceiving a fearful face, in both detection and discrimination tasks. This effect was stronger among individuals with reduced density in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region linked to perceptual decision-making. Moreover, participants reported higher confidence when they accurately perceived a fearful face, suggesting that fearful faces may have privileged access to consciousness. Together, the results suggest that mechanisms in the prefrontal cortex contribute to making fearful face perception special. PMID:27405614

  18. A confidence in itself, as mortgage of successful competition activity of the young chess-players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khoroshavina A.V.

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Presents the results of the study the basic aspects of self-confidence of young players. The study involved 54 young chess players. Of these, 34 students Kherson CYSS Chess. 20 players from different regions of Ukraine. Age investigated from 10 to 15 years. The dependence of the confidence of participation in competitions for young players on the level of anxiety, motivational set, strong-willed self-control. In the result of performance of young chess players in the competition is directly proportional to the strength of motivation to succeed installation. Most athletes have been observed high levels of self-willed. Self-control depends on the experience of participation of young players in the competition, as well as facilities manager.

  19. Simulators help improve student confidence to acquire skills in urology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Díez, M C; Díez, N; Merino, I; Velis, J M; Tienza, A; Robles-García, J E

    2014-01-01

    To know the level of confidence of fifth year medical students in order to perform maneuvers in bladder catheterization and rectal examination before and after training with simulators. To be able to assess student satisfaction regarding the use of the simulation as a learning method. The study was conducted in the Simulation Center of the Faculty of Medicine. A total of 173 students who completed a practical workshop on the subject of Urology participated. The students were asked to answer anonymous questionnaires on their level of confidence in performing a bladder catheterization and rectal examination before and after the workshop as well as their satisfaction in using the simulation as a training tool. The workshops were organized using groups of 10 students. A teacher or a resident in that area of expertise supervised each student individually, resolving their doubts and teaching them the proper technique. All the evaluations made on the different abilities were significantly higher after training (P<.001). Significant differences were found in the confidence level between men and women before the training regarding male urethral catheterization maneuvers and recognition of normal or pathological prostate, The confidence level was lower in women (P<.05). These differences disappeared after training. The level of overall satisfaction with the workshop was high, going from 4.47 ± 0.9 to a maximum score of 5. Simulation is a training method that helps improve the confidence of the medical student in performing a bladder catheterization and digital rectal examination. Copyright © 2013 AEU. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  20. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  1. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  2. Regionalism, Regionalization and Regional Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liviu C. Andrei

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Sustained development is a concept associating other concepts, in its turn, in the EU practice, e.g. regionalism, regionalizing and afferent policies, here including structural policies. This below text, dedicated to integration concepts, will limit on the other hand to regionalizing, otherwise an aspect typical to Europe and to the EU. On the other hand, two aspects come up to strengthen this field of ideas, i.e. the region (al-regionalism-(regional development triplet has either its own history or precise individual outline of terms.

  3. The Atmospheric Dynamics of Alpha Tau (K5 III) - Clues to Understanding the Magnetic Dynamo in Late-Type Giant Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Kenneth G.; Airapetian, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    Using HST/GHRS, HST/STIS and FUSE archival data for a Tau and the CHIANTI spectroscopic code, we have derived line shifts, volumetric emission measures, and plasma density estimates, and calculated filling factors for a number of UV lines forming between 10,000 K and 300,000 K in the outer atmosphere of this red giant star. The data suggest the presence of low-temperature extended regions and high-temperature compact regions, associated with magnetically open and closed structures in the stellar atmosphere, respectively. The signatures of UV lines from a Tau can be consistently understood via a model of upward-traveling Alfv6n waves in a gravitationally stratified atmosphere. These waves cause nonthermal broadening in UV lines due to unresolved wave motions and downward plasma motions in compact magnetic loops heated by resonant Alfven wave heating.

  4. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  5. Confidence Region for the Evaluation of HF DF Single Site Location Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-09-02

    34 . so ON=00 -1 )I a0- ft tt XN % nI- 0 110 111- 1- 1 NI L * = .1 of tix N aa NIf "- o I’ N "C4V4 W 9 o N P9- 4Dm>0 O -00W) 1 m m I = =W N ch a 4c 4 OLM5...1110 NO-K7 1120 NEXT K7 1130 L4-LO(NO) 1140 L5mL1(NO) 1150 N-N-i 1160 IF NO’t4+l THEN 1210 1170 FOR C6mNO TO N 1180 LO( C6 )-LO( C6 +1) 1190 L1( C6 )mLl( C6 +1

  6. What is your savings personality? The 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakoboski, P; Ostuw, P; Hicks, J

    1998-08-01

    This Issue Brief presents the findings of the 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS). The survey tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into six distinct groups, based on their very different views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The six personality types identified in the RCS are Deniers (10 percent of the population), Strugglers (9 percent), Impulsives (20 percent), Cautious Savers (21 percent), Planners (23 percent), and Retiring Savers (17 percent). The survey shows that working Americans have become more focused on retirement; 45 percent have tried to determine how much they need to save before they retire, up from 32 percent in 1996. Americans' growing attention to their retirement has not increased their retirement income confidence. Since 1993, the portion of working Americans who are very confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement has consistently ranged from 20 percent to 25 percent. Sixty-three percent of Americans have begun to save for retirement. Fifty-five percent of those not saving for retirement say it is reasonably possible for them to save $20 per week (over $1,000 per year). In addition, 57 percent of workers who have begun to save say that it is reasonably possible for them to save an additional $20 per week. The findings demonstrate the continuing need for broad-based educational efforts designed to make retirement savings a priority for individuals. The good news is the evidence that education can have a real impact at the individual level. For the first time the 1998 RCS examined retirement planning, saving, and attitudes across ethnic groups (African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans, and whites). African-Americans are the least confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. African-Americans and Hispanic

  7. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-04

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence.

  8. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  10. INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASING BALANCE & CONFIDENCE IN OLDER ADULTS: A REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foram Dhebar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Elderly is defined as being 65 years of age or older. Geriatrics or geriatric medicine is a specialty that focuses on health care of elderly people. The number of persons above the age of 60 years is fast growing, especially in India. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury, fractures & the leading cause of emergency department visits by older adults. Low balance confidence is a major health problem among older adults restricting their participation in daily life. Objective of this review is to determine what interventions are most effective in increasing balance confidence in older adults. The American Geriatrics Society (AGS published clinical guidelines 2011 that recommended all adults aged 65 years and older be screened for falls. Prevention of the fall can be done by combination of exercise include Strengthening exercise, Balance & co-ordination exercise,Hydrotherapy and allied therapeutics such as tai chi and yoga.

  11. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian D. Earp

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The (latest crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how such replication should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. What does it mean if a replication attempt fails—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should failed replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing failed replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in purported findings.

  12. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt "fails"-does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should "failed" replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing "failed" replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings.

  13. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  14. Age differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliske, R M; Mutter, S A

    1996-01-01

    Age differences in accuracy were investigated by having older (M = 68.6 years) and younger (M = 21.5 years) adults make confidence judgments about the correctness of their responses to two sets of general knowledge items. For one set, prior to making their confidence judgments, subjects made mental strategy judgements indicating how they had selected their answers (i.e., they guessed, used intuition, made an inference, or immediately recognized the response as correct). Results indicate that older subjects were more accurate than younger subjects in predicting the correctness of their responses; however, making mental strategy judgments did not result in increased accuracy for either age group. Additional analyses explored the relationship between accuracy and other individual difference variables. The results of this investigation are consistent with recent theories of postformal cognitive development that suggest older adults have greater insight into the limitations of their knowledge.

  15. A confidence index for forecasting of meteor showers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaubaillon, Jeremie

    2017-09-01

    The forecasting of meteor showers is currently very good at predicting the timing of meteor outbursts, but still needs further work regarding the level of a given shower. Moreover, uncertainties are rarely provided, leaving the end user (scientist, space agency or the public) with no way to evaluate how much the prediction is trustworthy. A confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers is presented. It allows one to better understand how a specific forecasting has been performed. In particular, it underlines the role of our current knowledge of the parent body, its past orbit and past activity. The role of close encounters with planets for the time period considered is quantified as well. This confidence index is a first step towards better constrained forecasting of future meteor showers.

  16. Autism Spectrum Disorder and High Confidence Gene Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Mai, MOCHIZUKI

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurological developmental disorder whose mechanism isyet unclear. However, recent ASD studies, which employ exome- and genome-wide sequencing,have identified some high-confidence ASD genes. Those ASD studies have revealed that CHD8is likely associated with ASD. In this article, we highlight that CHD8 may regulate othercandidate ASD risk genes. Current research indicates that there exist some thousand autismsusceptibility candidate genes. Moreover, we sugge...

  17. INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASING BALANCE & CONFIDENCE IN OLDER ADULTS: A REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Foram Dhebar

    2014-01-01

    Elderly is defined as being 65 years of age or older. Geriatrics or geriatric medicine is a specialty that focuses on health care of elderly people. The number of persons above the age of 60 years is fast growing, especially in India. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury, fractures & the leading cause of emergency department visits by older adults. Low balance confidence is a major health problem among older adults restricting their participation in daily life. Objective of t...

  18. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  19. Eliminative Argumentation: A Basis for Arguing Confidence in System Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    for all i ≠ j. Such structures have been called “multi-legged arguments” in the assurance case literature [ Bloomfield 2003] or “convergent” arguments...example and show how to develop a well- formed confidence map. In particular, we consider alternative argumentation structures. Bloomfield and...3 and we are 99% certain that 10−3 is an upper bound on the failure rate [ Bloomfield 2003]. Such a claim is statistically jus- tified if 4,603

  20. Independent neural computation of value from other people's confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell-Meiklejohn, Daniel; Simonsen, Arndis; Chris D Frith; Daw, Nathaniel D.

    2017-01-01

    Expectation of reward can be shaped by the observation of actions and expressions of other people in one's environment. A person's apparent confidence in the likely reward of an action, for instance, makes qualities of their evidence, not observed directly, socially accessible. This strategy is computationally distinguished from associative learning methods that rely on direct observation, by its use of inference from indirect evidence. In twenty-three healthy human subjects, we isolated effe...

  1. The effect of self-confidence on financial literacy

    OpenAIRE

    Alfonso Arellano; Noelia Camara; David Tuesta

    2014-01-01

    This study analyses whether self-confidence affects financial abilities of young people in Spain, through financial literacy. We use data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) Financial Literacy (2012) report, conducted by the OECD. Our hypothesis is that non-cognitive factors are important to establish young people s financial literacy. Financial knowledge, together with other personal attitudes, determines people s financial behaviour. We focus on the role of self-c...

  2. Note---New Confidence Interval Estimators Using Standardized Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    David Goldsman; Lee Schruben

    1990-01-01

    We develop new asymptotically valid confidence interval estimators (CIE's) for the underlying mean of a stationary simulation process. The new estimators are weighted generalizations of Schruben's standardized time series area CIE. We show that the weighted CIE's have the same asymptotic expected length and variance of the length as the area CIE; but in the small sample environment, the new CIE's exhibit performance characteristics which are different from those of the area CIE.

  3. Confidence Interval Methodology for Ratio Means (CIM4RM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-01

    is the combined effort of bootstrapping and creativity in constructing CLs around ratio means. CIM4RM was tested in many ratio mean applications and...for vehicle or repair period man - hours Man-hours per vehicle or repair MR: Estimated maintenance ratio for i th BSS adj MRt Weighted estimated...assumptions on the distributions) and creativity to compute approximate confidence intervals for a ratio mean metric. The bootstrap-t approach is very

  4. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 6. Excess Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorana BOLBOACĂ

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available We present the problem of the confidence interval estimation for excess risk (Y/n-X/m fraction, a parameter which allows evaluating of the specificity of an association between predisposing or causal factors and disease in medical studies. The parameter is computes based on 2x2 contingency table and qualitative variables. The aim of this paper is to introduce four new methods of computing confidence intervals for excess risk called DAC, DAs, DAsC, DBinomial, and DBinomialC and to compare theirs performance with the asymptotic method called here DWald.In order to assess the methods, we use the PHP programming language and a PHP program was creates. The performance of each method for different sample sizes and different values of binomial variables were assess using a set of criterions. First, the upper and lower boundaries for a given X, Y and a specified sample size for choused methods were compute. Second, were assessed the average and standard deviation of the experimental errors, and the deviation relative to imposed significance level α = 5%. Four methods were assessed on random numbers for binomial variables and for sample sizes from 4 to 1000 domain.The experiments show that the DAC methods obtain performances in confidence intervals estimation for excess risk.

  5. Farmers' confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enticott, G; Maye, D; Ilbery, B; Fisher, R; Kirwan, J

    2012-02-25

    This paper examines UK farmers' levels of confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and their trust in the Government's ability to deal with bTB. In 2010, a badger vaccine based on the BCG vaccine was licensed following field trials and used as part of the UK Government's Badger Vaccination Deployment Project. A stratified random sample of cattle farmers in five different locations of England was surveyed using a telephone survey to elicit their views of badger vaccination. The survey provided a total of 341 responses with a response rate of 80 per cent. Results suggest that the farmers are cautious about badger vaccination, appearing to be neither overly confident nor unconfident in it. However, the farmers did not reveal high levels of trust in the Government to manage bTB policy or badger vaccination. There were no differences in the levels of confidence or trust between farms that were under bTB restrictions at the time of the survey and those that were not or between farms with historically high levels of bTB. Analysis of principal components suggests that 33 per cent of the farmers accepted badger vaccination, but that acceptance is dependent on the wider social and political environment.

  6. A quantitative confidence signal detection model: 1. Fitting psychometric functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Yongwoo; Merfeld, Daniel M

    2016-04-01

    Perceptual thresholds are commonly assayed in the laboratory and clinic. When precision and accuracy are required, thresholds are quantified by fitting a psychometric function to forced-choice data. The primary shortcoming of this approach is that it typically requires 100 trials or more to yield accurate (i.e., small bias) and precise (i.e., small variance) psychometric parameter estimates. We show that confidence probability judgments combined with a model of confidence can yield psychometric parameter estimates that are markedly more precise and/or markedly more efficient than conventional methods. Specifically, both human data and simulations show that including confidence probability judgments for just 20 trials can yield psychometric parameter estimates that match the precision of those obtained from 100 trials using conventional analyses. Such an efficiency advantage would be especially beneficial for tasks (e.g., taste, smell, and vestibular assays) that require more than a few seconds for each trial, but this potential benefit could accrue for many other tasks. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  7. Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Téllez A.

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

  8. Calibration with confidence: a principled method for panel assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, R. S.; Low, R. J.; Parker, S.

    2017-01-01

    Frequently, a set of objects has to be evaluated by a panel of assessors, but not every object is assessed by every assessor. A problem facing such panels is how to take into account different standards among panel members and varying levels of confidence in their scores. Here, a mathematically based algorithm is developed to calibrate the scores of such assessors, addressing both of these issues. The algorithm is based on the connectivity of the graph of assessors and objects evaluated, incorporating declared confidences as weights on its edges. If the graph is sufficiently well connected, relative standards can be inferred by comparing how assessors rate objects they assess in common, weighted by the levels of confidence of each assessment. By removing these biases, ‘true’ values are inferred for all the objects. Reliability estimates for the resulting values are obtained. The algorithm is tested in two case studies: one by computer simulation and another based on realistic evaluation data. The process is compared to the simple averaging procedure in widespread use, and to Fisher's additive incomplete block analysis. It is anticipated that the algorithm will prove useful in a wide variety of situations such as evaluation of the quality of research submitted to national assessment exercises; appraisal of grant proposals submitted to funding panels; ranking of job applicants; and judgement of performances on degree courses wherein candidates can choose from lists of options. PMID:28386432

  9. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  10. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  11. Disparities in Confidence to Manage Chronic Diseases in Men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith Elder

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Chronic diseases are highly prevalent among men in the United States and chronic disease management is problematic for men, particularly for racial and ethnic minority men. Objectives: This study examined the association between health information seeking and confidence to manage chronic diseases among men. Methods: Study data were drawn from the 2007 Health Tracking Household Survey and analyzed using multiple binary logistic regressions. The analytical sample included 2,653 men, 18 years and older with a chronic illness. Results: Health information seeking was not associated with confidence to manage chronic illnesses. African-American men had lower odds than White men to agree to take actions to prevent symptoms with their health. Hispanic men had lower odds than White men to agree to tell a doctor concerns they have, even when not asked. Conclusions: Racial and ethnic minority men with a chronic condition appear to be less confident to manage their health compared to white men. Chronic disease management needs greater exploration to understand the best ways to help racial and ethnic minority men successfully manage their chronic condition.

  12. Crisis prevention centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for Northeast Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are particularly important and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, inter-related categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. First, technology is required to establishing communication systems and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Second, technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues. In addition, technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries. Establishing a CPC in Northeast Asia does not require the existence of an Asian security regime. Potential first steps for such a CPC should include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a {open_quotes}Hot Line{close_quotes} in bilateral and multilateral emergency situations. A central CPC could also be established as a regional communications hub. The central CPC could coordinate a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities, perhaps initially in an unofficial capacity. Specific recommendations for confidence building measures are discussed.

  13. Crisis prevention centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for Northeast Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are particularly important and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, inter-related categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. First, technology is required to establishing communication systems and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Second, technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues. In addition, technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries. Establishing a CPC in Northeast Asia does not require the existence of an Asian security regime. Potential first steps for such a CPC should include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a {open_quotes}Hot Line{close_quotes} in bilateral and multilateral emergency situations. A central CPC could also be established as a regional communications hub. The central CPC could coordinate a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities, perhaps initially in an unofficial capacity. Specific recommendations for confidence building measures are discussed.

  14. Medical students as EMTs: skill building, confidence and professional formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Kwiatkowski

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The first course of the medical curriculum at the Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine, From the Person to the Professional: Challenges, Privileges and Responsibilities, provides an innovative early clinical immersion. The course content specific to the Emergency Medical Technician (EMT curriculum was developed using the New York State Emergency Medical Technician curriculum. Students gain early legitimate clinical experience and practice clinical skills as team members in the pre-hospital environment. We hypothesized this novel curriculum would increase students’ confidence in their ability to perform patient care skills and enhance students’ comfort with team-building skills early in their training. Methods: Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from first-year medical students (n=97 through a survey developed to assess students’ confidence in patient care and team-building skills. The survey was completed prior to medical school, during the final week of the course, and at the end of their first year. A paired-samples t-test was conducted to compare self-ratings on 12 patient care and 12 team-building skills before and after the course, and a theme analysis was conducted to examine open-ended responses. Results: Following the course, student confidence in patient care skills showed a significant increase from baseline (p<0.05 for all identified skills. Student confidence in team-building skills showed a significant increase (p<0.05 in 4 of the 12 identified skills. By the end of the first year, 84% of the first-year students reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their patient care skills, while 72% reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their team-building skills. Conclusions: The incorporation of EMT training early in a medical school curriculum provides students with meaningful clinical experiences that increase their self

  15. Students' intentions towards studying science at upper-secondary school: the differential effects of under-confidence and over-confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Understanding students' intentions to study science at upper-secondary school, at university, and to follow science careers continues as a central concern for international science education. Prior research has highlighted that students' science confidence has been associated with their intentions to study science further, although under-confidence and over-confidence (lower or higher confidence than expected, given someone's attainment) have not been considered in detail. Accordingly, this study explored whether under-confident, accurately evaluating, and over-confident students expressed different attitudes towards their science education, and explored how under-confidence and over-confidence might influence students' science intentions. The questionnaire responses of 1523 students from 12 secondary schools in England were considered through analysis of variance and predictive modelling. Under-confident students expressed consistently lower science attitudes than accurately evaluating and over-confident students, despite reporting the same science grades as accurately evaluating students. Students' intentions to study science were predicted by different factors in different ways, depending on whether the students were under-confident, accurate, or over-confident. For accurately evaluating and over-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-efficacy beliefs (their confidence in their expected future science attainment). For under-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-concept beliefs (their confidence in currently 'doing well' or 'being good' at science). Many other differences were also apparent. Fundamentally, under-confidence may be detrimental not simply through associating with lower attitudes, but through students considering their choices in different ways. Under-confidence may accordingly require attention to help ensure that students' future choices are not unnecessarily constrained.

  16. Feedback for reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces using confidence metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, Noeline W; Sanchez, Justin C; Prasad, Abhishek

    2017-06-01

    For brain-machine interfaces (BMI) to be used in activities of daily living by paralyzed individuals, the BMI should be as autonomous as possible. One of the challenges is how the feedback is extracted and utilized in the BMI. Our long-term goal is to create autonomous BMIs that can utilize an evaluative feedback from the brain to update the decoding algorithm and use it intelligently in order to adapt the decoder. In this study, we show how to extract the necessary evaluative feedback from a biologically realistic (synthetic) source, use both the quantity and the quality of the feedback, and how that feedback information can be incorporated into a reinforcement learning (RL) controller architecture to maximize its performance. Motivated by the perception-action-reward cycle (PARC) in the brain which links reward for cognitive decision making and goal-directed behavior, we used a reward-based RL architecture named Actor-Critic RL as the model. Instead of using an error signal towards building an autonomous BMI, we envision to use a reward signal from the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) which plays a key role in the linking of reward to motor behaviors. To deal with the complexity and non-stationarity of biological reward signals, we used a confidence metric which was used to indicate the degree of feedback accuracy. This confidence was added to the Actor's weight update equation in the RL controller architecture. If the confidence was high (>0.2), the BMI decoder used this feedback to update its parameters. However, when the confidence was low, the BMI decoder ignored the feedback and did not update its parameters. The range between high confidence and low confidence was termed as the 'ambiguous' region. When the feedback was within this region, the BMI decoder updated its weight at a lower rate than when fully confident, which was decided by the confidence. We used two biologically realistic models to generate synthetic data for MI (Izhikevich model) and NAcc (Humphries

  17. Feedback for reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces using confidence metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, Noeline W.; Sanchez, Justin C.; Prasad, Abhishek

    2017-06-01

    Objective. For brain-machine interfaces (BMI) to be used in activities of daily living by paralyzed individuals, the BMI should be as autonomous as possible. One of the challenges is how the feedback is extracted and utilized in the BMI. Our long-term goal is to create autonomous BMIs that can utilize an evaluative feedback from the brain to update the decoding algorithm and use it intelligently in order to adapt the decoder. In this study, we show how to extract the necessary evaluative feedback from a biologically realistic (synthetic) source, use both the quantity and the quality of the feedback, and how that feedback information can be incorporated into a reinforcement learning (RL) controller architecture to maximize its performance. Approach. Motivated by the perception-action-reward cycle (PARC) in the brain which links reward for cognitive decision making and goal-directed behavior, we used a reward-based RL architecture named Actor-Critic RL as the model. Instead of using an error signal towards building an autonomous BMI, we envision to use a reward signal from the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) which plays a key role in the linking of reward to motor behaviors. To deal with the complexity and non-stationarity of biological reward signals, we used a confidence metric which was used to indicate the degree of feedback accuracy. This confidence was added to the Actor’s weight update equation in the RL controller architecture. If the confidence was high (>0.2), the BMI decoder used this feedback to update its parameters. However, when the confidence was low, the BMI decoder ignored the feedback and did not update its parameters. The range between high confidence and low confidence was termed as the ‘ambiguous’ region. When the feedback was within this region, the BMI decoder updated its weight at a lower rate than when fully confident, which was decided by the confidence. We used two biologically realistic models to generate synthetic data for MI (Izhikevich

  18. Signatures of a statistical computation in the human sense of confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Joshua I.; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2017-01-01

    Summary Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one’s beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the estimated probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and for erroneous choices, that confidence decreased with increasing evidence strength. We show that these patterns lawfully arise when statistical confidence qualifies a decision. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence. PMID:27151640

  19. Distorted Tetrahedral CoII in K5H[CoW12O40]·xH2O Probed by 2p3d Resonant Inelastic X-ray Scattering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, LIU BY; Wang, Ru Pan; Glass, Elliot N.; Hill, Craig L.; Cuk, Tanja; Okamoto, Jun; Huang, Di Jing; Van Schooneveld, Matti M.; De Groot, Frank M F

    2016-01-01

    The Co 2p3/2 X-ray absorption spectroscopy and high-energy-resolution (∼0.09 eV fwhm) 2p3d resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) spectra of the single-cobalt-centered polyoxometalate K5H[CoW12O40]·xH2O were measured. The low-energy dd transition features at 0.55 eV, unmeasurable with

  20. Multicolor immunofluorescence reveals that p63- and/or K5-positive progenitor cells contribute to normal breast epithelium and usual ductal hyperplasia but not to low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia of the breast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boecker, Werner; Stenman, Göran; Schroeder, Tina; Schumacher, Udo; Loening, Thomas; Stahnke, Lisa; Löhnert, Catharina; Siering, Robert Michael; Kuper, Arthur; Samoilova, Vera; Tiemann, Markus; Korsching, Eberhard; Buchwalow, Igor

    2017-03-16

    We contend that knowledge about the cellular composition of normal breast epithelium is a prerequisite for understanding proliferative breast disease. Against this background, we used multicolor immunofluorescence to study normal breast epithelium and two types of intraepithelial proliferative breast lesion for expression of the p63, basal keratin K5, glandular keratin K8/18, SMA, ER-alpha, and Ki67. We studied eight normal breast epithelium samples, 12 cases of usual ductal hyperplasia, and 33 cases of low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (9 flat epithelial atypia, 14 low-grade ductal carcinoma in situ and 10 cases of lobular neoplasia). Usual ductal hyperplasia showed striking similarity to normal luminal breast epithelium including p63+ and/or K5+ luminal progenitor cells and the full spectrum of luminal progeny cells. In normal breast epithelium and usual ductal hyperplasia, expression of ER-alpha was associated with lack of expression of the proliferation antigen Ki67. In contrast, we found in both types of low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia robust expression of keratin K8/18 and a positive association between ER-alpha and Ki67 expression. However, these lesions were consistently negative for p63 and/or K5. Our observational study supports the view that usual ductal hyperplasia and low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia are different entities rather than part of a spectrum of the same disease. We propose a new operational model of cell differentiation that may serve to better understand correlations between normal breast epithelium and proliferative breast diseases. From our data we conclude that p63+ and/or K5+ progenitor cells contribute to maintenance of normal epithelium and usual ductal hyperplasia, but not to low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia of the breast.

  1. Confidence Intervals for the Coefficient of Variation in a Normal Distribution with a Known Population Mean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wararit Panichkitkosolkul

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents three confidence intervals for the coefficient of variation in a normal distribution with a known population mean. One of the proposed confidence intervals is based on the normal approximation. The other proposed confidence intervals are the shortest-length confidence interval and the equal-tailed confidence interval. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. Simulation results have shown that all three proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

  2. Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne; Jørgensen, Lone G M; Schousboe, Karoline; Jensen, Esther

    2004-01-01

    A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distribution and the percentage of cumulative points exceeding these limits. The process is to rank the reference values and plot the cumulative frequency points in a rankit plot with a logarithmic (In=log(e)) transformed abscissa. If the distribution is close to In-Gaussian the cumulative frequency points will fit to the straight line describing the calculated In-Gaussian distribution. The quality of the fit is evaluated by adding confidence intervals (CI) to each point on the line and calculating the percentage of points outside the hyperbola-like CI-curves. The assumption was that the 95% confidence curves for percentiles would show 5% of points outside these limits. However, computer simulations disclosed that approximate 10% of the series would have 5% or more points outside the limits. This is a conservative validation, which is more demanding than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The graphical presentation, however, makes it easy to disclose deviations from In-Gaussianity, and to make other interpretations of the distributions, e.g., comparison to non-Gaussian distributions in the same plot, where the cumulative frequency percentage can be read from the ordinate. A long list of examples of In-Gaussian distributions of subgroups of reference values from healthy individuals is presented. In addition, distributions of values from well-defined diseased individuals may show up as In-Gaussian. It is evident from the examples that the rankit transformation and simple graphical evaluation for non-Gaussianity is a useful tool for the description of sub-groups.

  3. Establishing Quantitative Within-Subject Confidence Limits For Clinical Stereoroentgenographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Edward L.; Baumrind, Sheldon; Chafetz, Neil; Curry, Sean; Moffitt, Francis

    1983-07-01

    It is now quite clear that under ideal conditions, discrete points can be located on x-ray films with standard deviations of less than 50 i. However, under routine clinical conditions, such considerations as individual variation in anatomy, movement of the subject between exposures, and variations in image quality combine to produce considerable reductions in the confidence which can be placed in quantitative assessments made from stereoroentgenographic films. This paper discusses some considerations involved in designing mathematical models in such a way as to optimize the use of imperfect data in answering specific clinical questions.

  4. Public confidence in the police : the impact of verbal encounters

    OpenAIRE

    Rønneberg, Kari

    2012-01-01

    The main part of ordinary police work consists of patrolling and answering calls, which means that most police officers are in a daily and direct contact with members of the public. During such encounters, especially if they take place by means of a telephone, language not only provides an important means to solve problems and exert social control, but it also helps to build relations, as well as to inspire confidence and trust. In this way, the communication process between police and the pu...

  5. Breastfeeding Knowledge, Confidence, Beliefs, and Attitudes of Canadian Physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, Catherine M; Williams, Kathryn; Grenon, Renee; Aglipay, Mary; Plint, Amy C

    2014-08-01

    Physicians' attitudes and recommendations directly affect breastfeeding duration. Yet, studies in many nations have shown that physicians lack the skills to offer proper guidance to breastfeeding mothers. This study aims to assess breastfeeding knowledge, confidence, beliefs, and attitudes of Canadian physicians. A breastfeeding questionnaire was developed and piloted prior to study enrollment. These questionnaires were sent to 1429 pediatricians (PED), 1329 family physicians (FP), and final-year pediatric and final-year family medicine residents (PR and FMR). The analysis included 397 PED, 322 FP, 17 PR, and 44 FMR who completed the questionnaire. Mean overall correct knowledge score was 67.8% for PED, 64.3% for FP, 72.7% for PR, and 66.8% for FMR. Two hundred eighty-five PED (74.2%), 228 FP (73.1%), 7 PR (41.2%), and 21 FMR (53.8%) felt confident with their breastfeeding counseling skills. Less than half (49.6% of PED and 45.4% of FP) believed that evaluating breastfeeding was a primary care physician's responsibility, and few PED or FP (5.1% and 11.3%) routinely observed breastfeeding in mother-infant pairs. Several areas of potential deficits were identified in Canadian physicians' breastfeeding knowledge. Physicians would benefit from greater education and support, to optimize care of infants and their mothers. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  7. Sustaining Vaccine Confidence in the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Hardt

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Vaccination provides many health and economic benefits to individuals and society, and public support for immunization programs is generally high. However, the benefits of vaccines are often not fully valued when public discussions on vaccine safety, quality or efficacy arise, and the spread of misinformation via the internet and other media has the potential to undermine immunization programs. Factors associated with improved public confidence in vaccines include evidence-based decision-making procedures and recommendations, controlled processes for licensing and monitoring vaccine safety and effectiveness and disease surveillance. Community engagement with appropriate communication approaches for each audience is a key factor in building trust in vaccines. Vaccine safety/quality issues should be handled rapidly and transparently by informing and involving those most affected and those concerned with public health in effective ways. Openness and transparency in the exchange of information between industry and other stakeholders is also important. To maximize the safety of vaccines, and thus sustain trust in vaccines, partnerships are needed between public health sector stakeholders. Vaccine confidence can be improved through collaborations that ensure high vaccine uptake rates and that inform the public and other stakeholders of the benefits of vaccines and how vaccine safety is constantly assessed, assured and communicated.

  8. Covariate-adjusted confidence interval for the intraclass correlation coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoukri, Mohamed M; Donner, Allan; El-Dali, Abdelmoneim

    2013-09-01

    A crucial step in designing a new study is to estimate the required sample size. For a design involving cluster sampling, the appropriate sample size depends on the so-called design effect, which is a function of the average cluster size and the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC). It is well-known that under the framework of hierarchical and generalized linear models, a reduction in residual error may be achieved by including risk factors as covariates. In this paper we show that the covariate design, indicating whether the covariates are measured at the cluster level or at the within-cluster subject level affects the estimation of the ICC, and hence the design effect. Therefore, the distinction between these two types of covariates should be made at the design stage. In this paper we use the nested-bootstrap method to assess the accuracy of the estimated ICC for continuous and binary response variables under different covariate structures. The codes of two SAS macros are made available by the authors for interested readers to facilitate the construction of confidence intervals for the ICC. Moreover, using Monte Carlo simulations we evaluate the relative efficiency of the estimators and evaluate the accuracy of the coverage probabilities of a 95% confidence interval on the population ICC. The methodology is illustrated using a published data set of blood pressure measurements taken on family members.

  9. Calculating and graphing within-subject confidence intervals for ANOVA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baguley, Thom

    2012-03-01

    The psychological and statistical literature contains several proposals for calculating and plotting confidence intervals (CIs) for within-subjects (repeated measures) ANOVA designs. A key distinction is between intervals supporting inference about patterns of means (and differences between pairs of means, in particular) and those supporting inferences about individual means. In this report, it is argued that CIs for the former are best accomplished by adapting intervals proposed by Cousineau (Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 1, 42-45, 2005) and Morey (Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 4, 61-64, 2008) so that nonoverlapping CIs for individual means correspond to a confidence for their difference that does not include zero. CIs for the latter can be accomplished by fitting a multilevel model. In situations in which both types of inference are of interest, the use of a two-tiered CI is recommended. Free, open-source, cross-platform software for such interval estimates and plots (and for some common alternatives) is provided in the form of R functions for one-way within-subjects and two-way mixed ANOVA designs. These functions provide an easy-to-use solution to the difficult problem of calculating and displaying within-subjects CIs.

  10. International Confidence in Italian Economy. A Spread and Gambling Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murgea Aurora

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Gambling is an ancient human activity with a prevalent position nowadays both as a social entertainment activity and as a way to gain money effortless. Every country has its specific pattern in gambling determined both by its cultural and macroeconomic determinants and by its national regulatory framework. Macroeconomic variables as gross national income per capita, annual variation of GDP or unemployment were previously proved to be connected with the gambling industry. The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects generated by the internal and external loss of confidence in the Italian economy, as an effect of the latest financial crisis, over the Italian gambling industry. The level of spread between the 10 years yield of Italian and German government bonds is used as a proxy for the international trust in the Italian economy and the Economic Sentiment Indicator is used to describe the Italian citizens' confidence. The main results show a strong positive, statistically significant correlation between skill games and spread and an unexpected negative significant correlations between spread and lottery, one of the purely fortune games that was often seen as an ultimate chance to survive the crisis. The Economic Sentiment Indicator seems not to be correlated with any of the gambling categories.

  11. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  12. Nursing students' confidence in medication calculations predicts math exam performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Sharon; Salamonson, Yenna; Halcomb, Elizabeth J

    2009-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties, including predictive validity, of the newly-developed nursing self-efficacy for mathematics (NSE-Math). The NSE-Math is a 12 item scale that comprises items related to mathematic and arithmetic concepts underpinning medication calculations. The NSE-Math instrument was administered to second year Bachelor of Nursing students enrolled in a nursing practice subject. Students' academic results for a compulsory medication calculation examination for this subject were collected. One-hundred and twelve students (73%) completed both the NSE-Math instrument and the drug calculation assessment task. The NSE-Math demonstrated two factors 'Confidence in application of mathematic concepts to nursing practice' and 'Confidence in arithmetic concepts' with 63.5% of variance explained. Cronbach alpha for the scale was 0.90. The NSE-Math demonstrated predictive validity with the medication calculation examination results (p=0.009). Psychometric testing suggests the NSE-Math is a valid measure of mathematics self-efficacy of second year nursing students.

  13. Activities-Specific Balance Confidence in People with Multiple Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ylva Nilsagård

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS. Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1–6. Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Gocog, 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to −0.75 with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α=0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  14. Activities-specific balance confidence in people with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1-6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Go(cog), 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to -0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  15. Approximate linear confidence and curvature of a kinetic model of dodecanedioic acid in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panunzi, Simona; De Gaetano, Andrea; Mingrone, Geltrude

    2005-11-01

    Dicarboxylic acids with an even number of carbon atoms have been proposed as an alternate energy substrate for enteral or parenteral nutrition in the acutely ill patient, due to their water solubility and their yielding TCA cycle intermediates upon beta-oxidation. In the present work, a nonlinear compartmental model of the kinetics of dodecanedioic acid is developed, and its parameters are estimated from time concentration experimental observations obtained from six healthy volunteers undergoing a per os administration of 3 g of the substance. Although the model is linear in the transfer of the free substance from plasma to the tissues, the exchange between gut and plasma compartments is represented as a saturable function. Albumin binding is then incorporated to obtain the final model in terms of the measured total concentrations. Estimates of the model's structural parameters were computed for each experimental subject, and the usual single-subject approximate confidence regions for the parameters were derived by inversion of the Hessian at the optimum. To verify the applicability of this approximation, the nonlinearity of the expectation surface at the optimum was measured by computing the normal (intrinsic) component of curvature. Because the model curvature was excessive in all subjects, the usual approximation could not be trusted to provide acceptable approximations to the parameter confidence regions. A suitable Monte Carlo simulation yielded empirical joint parameter distributions from which the approximate parameter variances could finally be obtained.

  16. A boost of confidence: The role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex in memory, decision-making, and schemas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebscher, Melissa; Gilboa, Asaf

    2016-09-01

    The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been implicated in a wide array of functions across multiple domains. In this review, we focus on the vmPFC's involvement in mediating strategic aspects of memory retrieval, memory-related schema functions, and decision-making. We suggest that vmPFC generates a confidence signal that informs decisions and memory-guided behaviour. Confidence is central to these seemingly diverse functions: (1) Strategic retrieval: lesions to the vmPFC impair an early, automatic, and intuitive monitoring process ("feeling of rightness"; FOR) often associated with confabulation (spontaneous reporting of erroneous memories). Critically, confabulators typically demonstrate high levels of confidence in their false memories, suggesting that faulty monitoring following vmPFC damage may lead to indiscriminate confidence signals. (2) Memory schemas: the vmPFC is critically involved in instantiating and maintaining contextually relevant schemas, broadly defined as higher level knowledge structures that encapsulate lower level representational elements. The correspondence between memory retrieval cues and these activated schemas leads to FOR monitoring. Stronger, more elaborate schemas produce stronger FOR and influence confidence in the veracity of memory candidates. (3) Finally, we review evidence on the vmPFC's role in decision-making, extending this role to decision-making during memory retrieval. During non-mnemonic and mnemonic decision-making the vmPFC automatically encodes confidence. Confidence signal in the vmPFC is revealed as a non-linear relationship between a first-order monitoring assessment and second-order action or choice. Attempting to integrate the multiple functions of the vmPFC, we propose a posterior-anterior organizational principle for this region. More posterior vmPFC regions are involved in earlier, automatic, subjective, and contextually sensitive functions, while more anterior regions are involved in controlled actions

  17. An empirical method for establishing positional confidence intervals tailored for composite interval mapping of QTL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Crossett

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Improved genetic resolution and availability of sequenced genomes have made positional cloning of moderate-effect QTL realistic in several systems, emphasizing the need for precise and accurate derivation of positional confidence intervals (CIs for QTL. Support interval (SI methods based on the shape of the QTL likelihood curve have proven adequate for standard interval mapping, but have not been shown to be appropriate for use with composite interval mapping (CIM, which is one of the most commonly used QTL mapping methods. RESULTS: Based on a non-parametric confidence interval (NPCI method designed for use with the Haley-Knott regression method for mapping QTL, a CIM-specific method (CIM-NPCI was developed to appropriately account for the selection of background markers during analysis of bootstrap-resampled data sets. Coverage probabilities and interval widths resulting from use of the NPCI, SI, and CIM-NPCI methods were compared in a series of simulations analyzed via CIM, wherein four genetic effects were simulated in chromosomal regions with distinct marker densities while heritability was fixed at 0.6 for a population of 200 isolines. CIM-NPCIs consistently capture the simulated QTL across these conditions while slightly narrower SIs and NPCIs fail at unacceptably high rates, especially in genomic regions where marker density is high, which is increasingly common for real studies. The effects of a known CIM bias toward locating QTL peaks at markers were also investigated for each marker density case. Evaluation of sub-simulations that varied according to the positions of simulated effects relative to the nearest markers showed that the CIM-NPCI method overcomes this bias, offering an explanation for the improved coverage probabilities when marker densities are high. CONCLUSIONS: Extensive simulation studies herein demonstrate that the QTL confidence interval methods typically used to positionally evaluate CIM results can be

  18. Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanna eErickson

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  19. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  20. The confidence in diabetes self-care scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Der Ven, Nicole C W; Weinger, Katie; Yi, Joyce

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine psychometric properties of the Confidence in Diabetes Self-Care (CIDS) scale, a newly developed instrument assessing diabetes-specific self-efficacy in Dutch and U.S. patients with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Reliability and validity of the CIDS scale were...... evaluated in Dutch (n = 151) and U.S. (n = 190) outpatients with type 1 diabetes. In addition to the CIDS scale, assessment included HbA(1c), emotional distress, fear of hypoglycemia, self-esteem, anxiety, depression, and self-care behavior. The Dutch sample completed additional measures on perceived burden...... and importance of self-care. Test-retest reliability was established in a second Dutch sample (n = 62). RESULTS: Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86 for Dutch patients and 0.90 U.S. patients) and test-retest reliability (Spearman's r = 0.85, P

  1. The mechanical career of Councillor Orffyreus, confidence man

    CERN Document Server

    Jenkins, Alejandro

    2013-01-01

    In the early 18th century, J. E. E. Bessler, known as Orffyreus, constructed several wheels that he claimed could keep turning forever, powered only by gravity. He never revealed the details of his invention, but he conducted demonstrations (with the machine's inner workings covered) that persuaded competent observers that he might have discovered the secret of perpetual motion. Among Bessler's defenders were Gottfried Leibniz, Johann Bernoulli, Professor Willem 's Gravesande of Leiden University (who wrote to Isaac Newton on the subject), and Prince Karl, ruler of the German state of Hesse-Kassel. We review Bessler's work, placing it within the context of the intellectual debates of the time about mechanical conservation laws and the (im)possibility of perpetual motion. We also mention Bessler's long career as a confidence man, the details of which were discussed in popular 19th-century German publications, but have remained unfamiliar to authors in other languages.

  2. A Route Confidence Evaluation Method for Reliable Hierarchical Text Categorization

    CERN Document Server

    Hatami, Nima; Armano, Giuliano

    2012-01-01

    Hierarchical Text Categorization (HTC) is becoming increasingly important with the rapidly growing amount of text data available in the World Wide Web. Among the different strategies proposed to cope with HTC, the Local Classifier per Node (LCN) approach attains good performance by mirroring the underlying class hierarchy while enforcing a top-down strategy in the testing step. However, the problem of embedding hierarchical information (parent-child relationship) to improve the performance of HTC systems still remains open. A confidence evaluation method for a selected route in the hierarchy is proposed to evaluate the reliability of the final candidate labels in an HTC system. In order to take into account the information embedded in the hierarchy, weight factors are used to take into account the importance of each level. An acceptance/rejection strategy in the top-down decision making process is proposed, which improves the overall categorization accuracy by rejecting a few percentage of samples, i.e., thos...

  3. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  4. Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeyoung Kim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.

  5. Confidently estimating the number of DNA replication origins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, Anand; Keich, Uri

    2010-01-01

    We present a method for estimating and providing a confidence interval for the number of DNA replication origins in the genome of the yeast Kluyveromyces lactis. The method requires an initial set of verified sites from which a position specific frequency matrix (PSFM) can be constructed. We further assume that we have access to a sparingly used experimental procedure which can verify the functionality of a few, but not all, computationally predicted sites. While our motivation comes from estimating the number of autonomously replicating sequences (ARSs), our method can also be applied to estimating the genome-wide number of "functional" transcription factor binding sites, where functionality is determined by experimental verification of the transcription factor binding event using, for example, ChIP data. The reliability of our method is demonstrated by correctly predicting the known number of Saccharomyces cerevisiae ARSs as well as the number of S. cerevisiae probes that bind to the transcription factor ABF1.

  6. Leveraging waveform complexity for confident detection of gravitational waves

    CERN Document Server

    Kanner, Jonah B; Cornish, Neil; Millhouse, Meg; Xhakaj, Enia; Salemi, Francesco; Drago, Marco; Vedovato, Gabriele; Klimenko, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    The recent completion of Advanced LIGO suggests that gravitational waves (GWs) may soon be directly observed. Past searches for gravitational-wave transients have been impacted by transient noise artifacts, known as glitches, introduced into LIGO data due to instrumental and environmental effects. In this work, we explore how waveform complexity, instead of signal-to-noise ratio, can be used to rank event candidates and distinguish short duration astrophysical signals from glitches. We test this framework using a new hierarchical pipeline that directly compares the Bayesian evidence of explicit signal and glitch models. The hierarchical pipeline is shown to have strong performance, and in particular, allows high-confidence detections of a range of waveforms at realistic signal-to-noise ratio with a two detector network.

  7. The mechanical career of Councillor Orffyreus, confidence man

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Alejandro

    2013-06-01

    In the early 18th century, J. E. E. Bessler, known as Orffyreus, constructed several wheels that he claimed could keep turning forever, powered only by gravity. He never revealed the details of his invention, but he conducted demonstrations (with the machine's inner workings covered) that persuaded competent observers that he might have discovered the secret of perpetual motion. Among Bessler's defenders were Gottfried Leibniz, Johann Bernoulli, Professor Willem 's Gravesande of Leiden University (who wrote to Isaac Newton on the subject), and Prince Karl, ruler of the German state of Hesse-Kassel. We review Bessler's work, placing it within the context of the intellectual debates of the time about mechanical conservation laws and the (im)possibility of perpetual motion. We also mention Bessler's long career as a confidence man, the details of which were discussed in popular 19th-century German publications but have remained unfamiliar to authors in other languages.

  8. Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne

    2004-01-01

    A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian...... distribution and the percentage of cumulative points exceeding these limits. The process is to rank the reference values and plot the cumulative frequency points in a rankit plot with a logarithmic (In=log(e)) transformed abscissa. If the distribution is close to In-Gaussian the cumulative frequency points...... presentation, however, makes it easy to disclose deviations from In-Gaussianity, and to make other interpretations of the distributions, e.g., comparison to non-Gaussian distributions in the same plot, where the cumulative frequency percentage can be read from the ordinate. A long list of examples of In...

  9. Establishing confidence in complex physics codes: Art or science?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trucano, T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The ALEGRA shock wave physics code, currently under development at Sandia National Laboratories and partially supported by the US Advanced Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI), is generic to a certain class of physics codes: large, multi-application, intended to support a broad user community on the latest generation of massively parallel supercomputer, and in a continual state of formal development. To say that the author has ``confidence`` in the results of ALEGRA is to say something different than that he believes that ALEGRA is ``predictive.`` It is the purpose of this talk to illustrate the distinction between these two concepts. The author elects to perform this task in a somewhat historical manner. He will summarize certain older approaches to code validation. He views these methods as aiming to establish the predictive behavior of the code. These methods are distinguished by their emphasis on local information. He will conclude that these approaches are more art than science.

  10. Leveraging waveform complexity for confident detection of gravitational waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanner, Jonah B.; Littenberg, Tyson B.; Cornish, Neil; Millhouse, Meg; Xhakaj, Enia; Salemi, Francesco; Drago, Marco; Vedovato, Gabriele; Klimenko, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    The recent completion of Advanced LIGO suggests that gravitational waves may soon be directly observed. Past searches for gravitational-wave transients have been impacted by transient noise artifacts, known as glitches, introduced into LIGO data due to instrumental and environmental effects. In this work, we explore how waveform complexity, instead of signal-to-noise ratio, can be used to rank event candidates and distinguish short duration astrophysical signals from glitches. We test this framework using a new hierarchical pipeline that directly compares the Bayesian evidence of explicit signal and glitch models. The hierarchical pipeline is shown to perform well and, in particular, to allow high-confidence detections of a range of waveforms at a realistic signal-to-noise ratio with a two-detector network.

  11. Enabling high confidence detections of gravitational-wave bursts

    CERN Document Server

    Littenberg, Tyson B; Cornish, Neil J; Millhouse, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    With the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors taking observations the detection of gravitational waves is expected within the next few years. Extracting astrophysical information from gravitational wave detections is a well-posed problem and thoroughly studied when detailed models for the waveforms are available. However, one motivation for the field of gravitational wave astronomy is the potential for new discoveries. Recognizing and characterizing unanticipated signals requires data analysis techniques which do not depend on theoretical predictions for the gravitational waveform. Past searches for short-duration un-modeled gravitational wave signals have been hampered by transient noise artifacts, or "glitches," in the detectors. In some cases, even high signal-to-noise simulated astrophysical signals have proven difficult to distinguish from glitches, so that essentially any plausible signal could be detected with at most 2-3 $\\sigma$ level confidence. We have put forth the BayesWave algorithm to differentiat...

  12. Correlation Coefficients: Mean Bias and Confidence Interval Distortions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard L. Gorsuch

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Non-zero correlation coefficients have non-normal distributions, affecting both means and standard deviations. Previous research suggests that z transformation may effectively correct mean bias for N's less than 30. In this study, simulations with small (20 and 30 and large (50 and 100 N's found that mean bias adjustments for larger N's are seldom needed. However, z transformations improved confidence intervals even for N = 100. The improvement was not in the estimated standard errors so much as in the asymmetrical CI's estimates based upon the z transformation. The resulting observed probabilities were generally accurate to within 1 point in the first non-zero digit. These issues are an order of magnitude less important for accuracy than design issues influencing the accuracy of the results, such as reliability, restriction of range, and N. DOI: 10.2458/azu_jmmss.v1i2.114

  13. Analysis on Gene Expression Data using Confidence Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshioka, Michifumi; Shimoda, Norihiro; Omatu, Shigeru

    Due to recent advances in biotechnology, we can get activation level of each gene within an organism at a particular point of time. The data is called “gene expression data”. Analysis of gene expression data can provide understanding and insight into gene function and regulatory mechanism. However, these tasks are made more difficult from the empirical nature of array data and the overwhelming number of gene feature. One of our previous works in our field is GASVM. GASVM is a hybrid method of Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine by Saberi et al.(1). GASVM has a large computational cost and a possibility of overfitting. Therefore, we have introduced a new criterion “Confidence Margin” and proposed a new method using it. The experimental result using two famous datasets confirmed the effectiveness of our proposed method.

  14. The 95% confidence intervals of error rates and discriminant coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichi Shinmura

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Fisher proposed a linear discriminant function (Fisher’s LDF. From 1971, we analysed electrocardiogram (ECG data in order to develop the diagnostic logic between normal and abnormal symptoms by Fisher’s LDF and a quadratic discriminant function (QDF. Our four years research was inferior to the decision tree logic developed by the medical doctor. After this experience, we discriminated many data and found four problems of the discriminant analysis. A revised Optimal LDF by Integer Programming (Revised IP-OLDF based on the minimum number of misclassification (minimum NM criterion resolves three problems entirely [13, 18]. In this research, we discuss fourth problem of the discriminant analysis. There are no standard errors (SEs of the error rate and discriminant coefficient. We propose a k-fold crossvalidation method. This method offers a model selection technique and a 95% confidence intervals (C.I. of error rates and discriminant coefficients.

  15. Measuring Intuition: Nonconscious Emotional Information Boosts Decision Accuracy and Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lufityanto, Galang; Donkin, Chris; Pearson, Joel

    2016-05-01

    The long-held popular notion of intuition has garnered much attention both academically and popularly. Although most people agree that there is such a phenomenon as intuition, involving emotionally charged, rapid, unconscious processes, little compelling evidence supports this notion. Here, we introduce a technique in which subliminal emotional information is presented to subjects while they make fully conscious sensory decisions. Our behavioral and physiological data, along with evidence-accumulator models, show that nonconscious emotional information can boost accuracy and confidence in a concurrent emotion-free decision task, while also speeding up response times. Moreover, these effects were contingent on the specific predictive arrangement of the nonconscious emotional valence and motion direction in the decisional stimulus. A model that simultaneously accumulates evidence from both physiological skin conductance and conscious decisional information provides an accurate description of the data. These findings support the notion that nonconscious emotions can bias concurrent nonemotional behavior-a process of intuition.

  16. A Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp improves trainee confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Catherine K; Tannous, Paul; DeWitt, Elizabeth; Farias, Michael; Mansfield, Laura; Ronai, Christina; Schidlow, David; Sanders, Stephen P; Lock, James E; Newburger, Jane W; Brown, David W

    2016-12-01

    Introduction New paediatric cardiology trainees are required to rapidly assimilate knowledge and gain clinical skills to which they have limited or no exposure during residency. The Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp (PCBC) at Boston Children's Hospital was designed to provide incoming fellows with an intensive exposure to congenital cardiac pathology and a broad overview of major areas of paediatric cardiology practice. The PCBC curriculum was designed by core faculty in cardiac pathology, echocardiography, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, exercise physiology, and cardiac intensive care. Individual faculty contributed learning objectives, which were refined by fellowship directors and used to build a programme of didactics, hands-on/simulation-based activities, and self-guided learning opportunities. A total of 16 incoming fellows participated in the 4-week boot camp, with no concurrent clinical responsibilities, over 2 years. On the basis of pre- and post-PCBC surveys, 80% of trainees strongly agreed that they felt more prepared for clinical responsibilities, and a similar percentage felt that PCBC should be offered to future incoming fellows. Fellows showed significant increase in their confidence in all specific knowledge and skills related to the learning objectives. Fellows rated hands-on learning experiences and simulation-based exercises most highly. We describe a novel 4-week-long boot camp designed to expose incoming paediatric cardiology fellows to the broad spectrum of knowledge and skills required for the practice of paediatric cardiology. The experience increased trainee confidence and sense of preparedness to begin fellowship-related responsibilities. Given that highly interactive activities were rated most highly, boot camps in paediatric cardiology should strongly emphasise these elements.

  17. Coordinated bifluoride ions in the first thiofluoride molybdenum triangular cluster complex: synthesis and crystal structure of K5[Mo3S4F7(FHF)2]·2H2O

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mironov, Yu. V.; Yarovoi, S. S.; Solodovnikov, S. F.; Fedorov, V. E.

    2003-08-01

    The first triangular thiofluoride cluster complex of molybdenum K5[Mo3S4F7(FHF)2]·2H2O with unexpected coordination of bifluoride ions has been synthesized by the reaction of Mo3S7Br4 with molten KHF2. The compound was characterized by single crystal X-ray diffraction. The compound crystallizes in the orthorhombic space group Cmc21 with four formulas in unit cell of dimensions a=15.1060(20) Å,b=8.7820(9) Å,c=14.3358(13) Å,V=1901.8(4) Å3.

  18. Restoring farmers' confidence in manure benefits the environment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröder, J.J.

    2002-01-01

    The ongoing disintegration of agriculture into specialized farms, specialized regions and even specialized countries, has disrupted local nutrient cycles. This process is promoted and sustained by the use of mineral fertilizers. Ample availability of mineral fertilizers has changed farmers' percepti

  19. Uncertainty and confidence from the triple-network perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    White, Thomas P.; Engen, Nina Helkjær; Sørensen, Susan

    2014-01-01

    was consistently observed in the salience (anterior cingulate cortex and insula) and central executive network (dorsolateral prefrontal and posterior parietal cortices) in conditions of increased uncertainty; by contrast, default mode network (midline cortical and medial temporal lobe) regions robustly exhibited...

  20. Empirical methods for controlling false positives and estimating confidence in ChIP-Seq peaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courdy Samir J

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High throughput signature sequencing holds many promises, one of which is the ready identification of in vivo transcription factor binding sites, histone modifications, changes in chromatin structure and patterns of DNA methylation across entire genomes. In these experiments, chromatin immunoprecipitation is used to enrich for particular DNA sequences of interest and signature sequencing is used to map the regions to the genome (ChIP-Seq. Elucidation of these sites of DNA-protein binding/modification are proving instrumental in reconstructing networks of gene regulation and chromatin remodelling that direct development, response to cellular perturbation, and neoplastic transformation. Results Here we present a package of algorithms and software that makes use of control input data to reduce false positives and estimate confidence in ChIP-Seq peaks. Several different methods were compared using two simulated spike-in datasets. Use of control input data and a normalized difference score were found to more than double the recovery of ChIP-Seq peaks at a 5% false discovery rate (FDR. Moreover, both a binomial p-value/q-value and an empirical FDR were found to predict the true FDR within 2–3 fold and are more reliable estimators of confidence than a global Poisson p-value. These methods were then used to reanalyze Johnson et al.'s neuron-restrictive silencer factor (NRSF ChIP-Seq data without relying on extensive qPCR validated NRSF sites and the presence of NRSF binding motifs for setting thresholds. Conclusion The methods developed and tested here show considerable promise for reducing false positives and estimating confidence in ChIP-Seq data without any prior knowledge of the chIP target. They are part of a larger open source package freely available from http://useq.sourceforge.net/.