Deriving appropriate boundary conditions, and accelerating position-jump simulations, of diffusion using non-local jumping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, P R; Baker, R E; Yates, C A

2015-01-01

In this paper we explore lattice-based position-jump models of diffusion, and the implications of introducing non-local jumping; particles can jump to a range of nearby boxes rather than only to their nearest neighbours. We begin by deriving conditions for equivalence with traditional local jumping models in the continuum limit. We then generalize a previously postulated implementation of the Robin boundary condition for a non-local process of arbitrary maximum jump length, and present a novel implementation of flux boundary conditions, again generalized for a non-local process of arbitrary maximum jump length. In both these cases we validate our results using stochastic simulation. We then proceed to consider two variations on the basic diffusion model: a hybrid local/non-local scheme suitable for models involving sharp concentration gradients, and the implementation of biased jumping. In all cases we show that non-local jumping can deliver substantial time savings for stochastic simulations. (paper)

Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsson, Karl; Nossman, Marcus

2011-01-01

In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model including jumps in both prices and volatility is strong and the model clearly outperforms the others in terms of a superior fit to data. Our estimation method allows us to obtain a detailed study of oil prices during two periods of extreme market stress included in our sample; the Gulf war and the recent financial crisis. We also address the economic significance of model choice in two option pricing applications. The implied volatilities generated by the different estimated models are compared and we price a real option to develop an oil field. Our findings indicate that model choice can have a material effect on the option values.

Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes with informative observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Golightly, Andrew; Wilkinson, Darren J

2015-04-01

In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is straightforward, Bayesian inference typically proceeds through computationally intensive methods such as (particle) MCMC. Such methods ostensibly require the ability to simulate trajectories from the conditioned jump process. When observations are highly informative, use of the forward simulator is likely to be inefficient and may even preclude an exact (simulation based) analysis. We therefore propose three methods for improving the efficiency of simulating conditioned jump processes. A conditioned hazard is derived based on an approximation to the jump process, and used to generate end-point conditioned trajectories for use inside an importance sampling algorithm. We also adapt a recently proposed sequential Monte Carlo scheme to our problem. Essentially, trajectories are reweighted at a set of intermediate time points, with more weight assigned to trajectories that are consistent with the next observation. We consider two implementations of this approach, based on two continuous approximations of the MJP. We compare these constructs for a simple tractable jump process before using them to perform inference for a Lotka-Volterra system. The best performing construct is used to infer the parameters governing a simple model of motility regulation in Bacillus subtilis.

Stationary distribution and ergodicity of a stochastic food-chain model with Lévy jumps

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Jingyi; Liu, Meng

2017-09-01

In this paper, a three-species stochastic food-chain model with Lévy jumps is proposed and analyzed. Sharp sufficient criteria for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution are established. The effects of Lévy jumps on the existence of the stationary distribution are revealed: in some cases, the Lévy jumps could make the stationary distribution appear, while in some cases, the Lévy jumps could make the stationary distribution disappear. Some numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate the theoretical results.

100 years after Smoluchowski: stochastic processes in cell biology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holcman, D; Schuss, Z

2017-01-01

100 years after Smoluchowski introduced his approach to stochastic processes, they are now at the basis of mathematical and physical modeling in cellular biology: they are used for example to analyse and to extract features from a large number (tens of thousands) of single molecular trajectories or to study the diffusive motion of molecules, proteins or receptors. Stochastic modeling is a new step in large data analysis that serves extracting cell biology concepts. We review here Smoluchowski’s approach to stochastic processes and provide several applications for coarse-graining diffusion, studying polymer models for understanding nuclear organization and finally, we discuss the stochastic jump dynamics of telomeres across cell division and stochastic gene regulation. (topical review)

Jump diffusion models and the evolution of financial prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de; Silva, Sergio da; Gleria, Iram

2011-01-01

We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. We consider the stochastic term as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. We point to the effects of the jumps on the return time evolution, a central concern of the econophysics literature. The presence of jumps suggests that the process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. We then extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model and show the model to be capable of explaining return behavior. -- Highlights: → We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. → The stochastic term is considered as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. → The process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. → We extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model.

Optimal harvesting of a stochastic delay tri-trophic food-chain model with Lévy jumps

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Hong; Deng, Wenmin

2018-02-01

In this paper, the optimal harvesting of a stochastic delay tri-trophic food-chain model with Lévy jumps is considered. We introduce two kinds of environmental perturbations in this model. One is called white noise which is continuous and is described by a stochastic integral with respect to the standard Brownian motion. And the other one is jumping noise which is modeled by a Lévy process. Under some mild assumptions, the critical values between extinction and persistent in the mean of each species are established. The sufficient and necessary criteria for the existence of optimal harvesting policy are established and the optimal harvesting effort and the maximum of sustainable yield are also obtained. We utilize the ergodic method to discuss the optimal harvesting problem. The results show that white noises and Lévy noises significantly affect the optimal harvesting policy while time delays is harmless for the optimal harvesting strategy in some cases. At last, some numerical examples are introduced to show the validity of our results.

Exponential Synchronization for Stochastic Neural Networks with Mixed Time Delays and Markovian Jump Parameters via Sampled Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingwei Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The exponential synchronization issue for stochastic neural networks (SNNs with mixed time delays and Markovian jump parameters using sampled-data controller is investigated. Based on a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, stochastic analysis theory, and linear matrix inequality (LMI approach, we derived some novel sufficient conditions that guarantee that the master systems exponentially synchronize with the slave systems. The design method of the desired sampled-data controller is also proposed. To reflect the most dynamical behaviors of the system, both Markovian jump parameters and stochastic disturbance are considered, where stochastic disturbances are given in the form of a Brownian motion. The results obtained in this paper are a little conservative comparing the previous results in the literature. Finally, two numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Dynamics of the stochastic low concentration trimolecular oscillatory chemical system with jumps

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Yongchang; Yang, Qigui

2018-06-01

This paper is devoted to discern long time dynamics through the stochastic low concentration trimolecular oscillatory chemical system with jumps. By Lyapunov technique, this system is proved to have a unique global positive solution, and the asymptotic stability in mean square of such model is further established. Moreover, the existence of random attractor and Lyapunov exponents are obtained for the stochastic homeomorphism flow generated by the corresponding global positive solution. And some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the presented results.

Stochastic stability of mechanical systems under renewal jump process parametric excitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Larsen, Jesper Winther

2005-01-01

independent, negative exponential distributed variables; hence, the arrival process may be termed as a generalized Erlang renewal process. The excitation process is governed by the stochastic equation driven by two independent Poisson processes, with different parameters. If the response in a single mode...

Stochastic inequalities and applications to dynamics analysis of a novel SIVS epidemic model with jumps

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Xiaona Leng

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract This paper proposes a new nonlinear stochastic SIVS epidemic model with double epidemic hypothesis and Lévy jumps. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the threshold dynamics of the stochastic SIVS epidemic model. By using the technique of a series of stochastic inequalities, we obtain sufficient conditions for the persistence in mean and extinction of the stochastic system and the threshold which governs the extinction and the spread of the epidemic diseases. Finally, this paper describes the results of numerical simulations investigating the dynamical effects of stochastic disturbance. Our results significantly improve and generalize the corresponding results in recent literatures. The developed theoretical methods and stochastic inequalities technique can be used to investigate the high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic differential systems.

Estimation of Jump Tails

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Victor

We propose a new and flexible non-parametric framework for estimating the jump tails of Itô semimartingale processes. The approach is based on a relatively simple-to-implement set of estimating equations associated with the compensator for the jump measure, or its "intensity", that only utilizes...... the weak assumption of regular variation in the jump tails, along with in-fill asymptotic arguments for uniquely identifying the "large" jumps from the data. The estimation allows for very general dynamic dependencies in the jump tails, and does not restrict the continuous part of the process...... and the temporal variation in the stochastic volatility. On implementing the new estimation procedure with actual high-frequency data for the S&P 500 aggregate market portfolio, we find strong evidence for richer and more complex dynamic dependencies in the jump tails than hitherto entertained in the literature....

H∞ Filtering for Networked Markovian Jump Systems with Multiple Stochastic Communication Delays

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Hui Dong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the H∞ filtering for a class of networked Markovian jump systems with multiple communication delays. Due to the existence of communication constraints, the measurement signal cannot arrive at the filter completely on time, and the stochastic communication delays are considered in the filter design. Firstly, a set of stochastic variables is introduced to model the occurrence probabilities of the delays. Then based on the stochastic system approach, a sufficient condition is obtained such that the filtering error system is stable in the mean-square sense and with a prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level. The optimal filter gain parameters can be determined by solving a convex optimization problem. Finally, a simulation example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed filter design method.

A Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility and Durations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wei, Wei; Pelletier, Denis

jumps in two ways: as exogenous sampling intervals, and through the interaction with volatility. We adopt a bivariate Ornstein-Ulenbeck process to model intraday volatility and conditional duration. We develop a MCMC algorithm for the inference on irregularly spaced multivariate processes with jumps...

Mean-Square Convergence of Drift-Implicit One-Step Methods for Neutral Stochastic Delay Differential Equations with Jump Diffusion

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Lin Hu

2011-01-01

Full Text Available A class of drift-implicit one-step schemes are proposed for the neutral stochastic delay differential equations (NSDDEs driven by Poisson processes. A general framework for mean-square convergence of the methods is provided. It is shown that under certain conditions global error estimates for a method can be inferred from estimates on its local error. The applicability of the mean-square convergence theory is illustrated by the stochastic θ-methods and the balanced implicit methods. It is derived from Theorem 3.1 that the order of the mean-square convergence of both of them for NSDDEs with jumps is 1/2. Numerical experiments illustrate the theoretical results. It is worth noting that the results of mean-square convergence of the stochastic θ-methods and the balanced implicit methods are also new.

A renewal jump-diffusion process with threshold dividend strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bo; Wu, Rong; Song, Min

2009-06-01

In this paper, we consider a jump-diffusion risk process with the threshold dividend strategy. Both the distributions of the inter-arrival times and the claims are assumed to be in the class of phase-type distributions. The expected discounted dividend function and the Laplace transform of the ruin time are discussed. Motivated by Asmussen [S. Asmussen, Stationary distributions for fluid flow models with or without Brownian noise, Stochastic Models 11 (1) (1995) 21-49], instead of studying the original process, we study the constructed fluid flow process and their closed-form formulas are obtained in terms of matrix expression. Finally, numerical results are provided to illustrate the computation.

Population density equations for stochastic processes with memory kernels

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Yi Ming; de Kamps, Marc

2017-06-01

We present a method for solving population density equations (PDEs)-a mean-field technique describing homogeneous populations of uncoupled neurons—where the populations can be subject to non-Markov noise for arbitrary distributions of jump sizes. The method combines recent developments in two different disciplines that traditionally have had limited interaction: computational neuroscience and the theory of random networks. The method uses a geometric binning scheme, based on the method of characteristics, to capture the deterministic neurodynamics of the population, separating the deterministic and stochastic process cleanly. We can independently vary the choice of the deterministic model and the model for the stochastic process, leading to a highly modular numerical solution strategy. We demonstrate this by replacing the master equation implicit in many formulations of the PDE formalism by a generalization called the generalized Montroll-Weiss equation—a recent result from random network theory—describing a random walker subject to transitions realized by a non-Markovian process. We demonstrate the method for leaky- and quadratic-integrate and fire neurons subject to spike trains with Poisson and gamma-distributed interspike intervals. We are able to model jump responses for both models accurately to both excitatory and inhibitory input under the assumption that all inputs are generated by one renewal process.

Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Posch, Olaf

2009-01-01

This paper shows how to solve and estimate a continuous-time dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with jumps. It also shows that a continuous-time formulation can make it simpler (relative to its discrete-time version) to compute and estimate the deep parameters using the likelihoo...

The Relationship between the Stochastic Maximum Principle and the Dynamic Programming in Singular Control of Jump Diffusions

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Farid Chighoub

2014-01-01

the stochastic calculus of jump diffusions and some properties of singular controls. Then, we give, under smoothness conditions, a useful verification theorem and we show that the solution of the adjoint equation coincides with the spatial gradient of the value function, evaluated along the optimal trajectory of the state equation. Finally, using these theoretical results, we solve explicitly an example, on optimal harvesting strategy, for a geometric Brownian motion with jumps.

Global exponential stability of neutral high-order stochastic Hopfield neural networks with Markovian jump parameters and mixed time delays.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Haiying; Du, Qiaosheng; Kang, Xibing

2013-11-01

In this paper, a class of neutral high-order stochastic Hopfield neural networks with Markovian jump parameters and mixed time delays is investigated. The jumping parameters are modeled as a continuous-time finite-state Markov chain. At first, the existence of equilibrium point for the addressed neural networks is studied. By utilizing the Lyapunov stability theory, stochastic analysis theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique, new delay-dependent stability criteria are presented in terms of linear matrix inequalities to guarantee the neural networks to be globally exponentially stable in the mean square. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main results. © 2013 ISA. Published by ISA. All rights reserved.

Intertime jump statistics of state-dependent Poisson processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Daly, Edoardo; Porporato, Amilcare

2007-01-01

A method to obtain the probability distribution of the interarrival times of jump occurrences in systems driven by state-dependent Poisson noise is proposed. Such a method uses the survivor function obtained by a modified version of the master equation associated to the stochastic process under analysis. A model for the timing of human activities shows the capability of state-dependent Poisson noise to generate power-law distributions. The application of the method to a model for neuron dynamics and to a hydrological model accounting for land-atmosphere interaction elucidates the origin of characteristic recurrence intervals and possible persistence in state-dependent Poisson models.

Optimal control strategy for an impulsive stochastic competition system with time delays and jumps

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Lidan; Meng, Xinzhu; Zhang, Tonghua

2017-07-01

Driven by both white and jump noises, a stochastic delayed model with two competitive species in a polluted environment is proposed and investigated. By using the comparison theorem of stochastic differential equations and limit superior theory, sufficient conditions for persistence in mean and extinction of two species are established. In addition, we obtain that the system is asymptotically stable in distribution by using ergodic method. Furthermore, the optimal harvesting effort and the maximum of expectation of sustainable yield (ESY) are derived from Hessian matrix method and optimal harvesting theory of differential equations. Finally, some numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.

Analytic Approximation of the Solutions of Stochastic Differential Delay Equations with Poisson Jump and Markovian Switching

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Hua Yang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We are concerned with the stochastic differential delay equations with Poisson jump and Markovian switching (SDDEsPJMSs. Most SDDEsPJMSs cannot be solved explicitly as stochastic differential equations. Therefore, numerical solutions have become an important issue in the study of SDDEsPJMSs. The key contribution of this paper is to investigate the strong convergence between the true solutions and the numerical solutions to SDDEsPJMSs when the drift and diffusion coefficients are Taylor approximations.

Neural network connectivity and response latency modelled by stochastic processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tamborrino, Massimiliano

is connected to thousands of other neurons. The rst question is: how to model neural networks through stochastic processes? A multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, obtained as a diffusion approximation of a jump process, is the proposed answer. Obviously, dependencies between neurons imply dependencies......Stochastic processes and their rst passage times have been widely used to describe the membrane potential dynamics of single neurons and to reproduce neuronal spikes, respectively.However, cerebral cortex in human brains is estimated to contain 10-20 billions of neurons and each of them...... between their spike times. Therefore, the second question is: how to detect neural network connectivity from simultaneously recorded spike trains? Answering this question corresponds to investigate the joint distribution of sequences of rst passage times. A non-parametric method based on copulas...

A generalized integral fluctuation theorem for general jump processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Fei; Ouyang Zhongcan; Luo Yupin; Huang Mingchang

2009-01-01

Using the Feynman-Kac and Cameron-Martin-Girsanov formulae, we obtain a generalized integral fluctuation theorem (GIFT) for discrete jump processes by constructing a time-invariable inner product. The existing discrete IFTs can be derived as its specific cases. A connection between our approach and the conventional time-reversal method is also established. Unlike the latter approach that has been extensively employed in the existing literature, our approach can naturally bring out the definition of a time reversal of a Markovian stochastic system. Additionally, we find that the robust GIFT usually does not result in a detailed fluctuation theorem. (fast track communication)

Modelling on optimal portfolio with exchange rate based on discontinuous stochastic process

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Wei; Chang, Yuwen

2016-12-01

Considering the stochastic exchange rate, this paper is concerned with the dynamic portfolio selection in financial market. The optimal investment problem is formulated as a continuous-time mathematical model under mean-variance criterion. These processes follow jump-diffusion processes (Weiner process and Poisson process). Then the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and its efferent frontier is obtained. Moreover, the optimal strategy is also derived under safety-first criterion.

Stability in distribution of a stochastic hybrid competitive Lotka–Volterra model with Lévy jumps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Yu; Yuan, Sanling

2016-01-01

Stability in distribution, implying the existence of the invariant probability measure, is an important measure of stochastic hybrid system. However, the effect of Lévy jumps on the stability in distribution is still unclear. In this paper, we consider a n-species competitive Lotka–Volterra model with Lévy jumps under regime-switching. First, we prove the existence of the global positive solution, obtain the upper and lower boundedness. Then, asymptotic stability in distribution as the main result of our paper is derived under some sufficient conditions. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to support our theoretical results and a brief discussion is given.

Optimising stochastic trajectories in exact quantum jump approaches of interacting systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lacroix, D.

2004-11-01

The standard methods used to substitute the quantum dynamics of two interacting systems by a quantum jump approach based on the Stochastic Schroedinger Equation (SSE) are described. It turns out that for a given situation, there exists an infinite number of SSE reformulation. This fact is used to propose general strategies to optimise the stochastic paths in order to reduce the statistical fluctuations. In this procedure, called the 'adaptative noise method', a specific SSE is obtained for which the noise depends explicitly on both the initial state and on the properties of the interaction Hamiltonian. It is also shown that this method can be further improved by the introduction of a mean-field dynamics. The different optimisation procedures are illustrated quantitatively in the case of interacting spins. A significant reduction of the statistical fluctuations is obtained. Consequently, a much smaller number of trajectories is needed to accurately reproduce the exact dynamics as compared to the standard SSE method. (author)

Transport properties of stochastic Lorentz models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beijeren, H. van

Diffusion processes are considered for one-dimensional stochastic Lorentz models, consisting of randomly distributed fixed scatterers and one moving light particle. In waiting time Lorentz models the light particle makes instantaneous jumps between scatterers after a stochastically distributed

Prescription-induced jump distributions in multiplicative Poisson processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Suweis, Samir; Porporato, Amilcare; Rinaldo, Andrea; Maritan, Amos

2011-06-01

Generalized Langevin equations (GLE) with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual prescription dilemma leading to different evolution equations (master equations) for the probability distribution. Contrary to the case of multiplicative Gaussian white noise, the Stratonovich prescription does not correspond to the well-known midpoint (or any other intermediate) prescription. By introducing an inertial term in the GLE, we show that the Itô and Stratonovich prescriptions naturally arise depending on two time scales, one induced by the inertial term and the other determined by the jump event. We also show that, when the multiplicative noise is linear in the random variable, one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We apply these results to a recently proposed stochastic model describing the dynamics of primary soil salinization, in which the salt mass balance within the soil root zone requires the analysis of different prescriptions arising from the resulting stochastic differential equation forced by multiplicative white Poisson noise, the features of which are tailored to the characters of the daily precipitation. A method is finally suggested to infer the most appropriate prescription from the data.

Prescription-induced jump distributions in multiplicative Poisson processes

Science.gov (United States)

Suweis, Samir; Porporato, Amilcare; Rinaldo, Andrea; Maritan, Amos

2011-06-01

Generalized Langevin equations (GLE) with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual prescription dilemma leading to different evolution equations (master equations) for the probability distribution. Contrary to the case of multiplicative Gaussian white noise, the Stratonovich prescription does not correspond to the well-known midpoint (or any other intermediate) prescription. By introducing an inertial term in the GLE, we show that the Itô and Stratonovich prescriptions naturally arise depending on two time scales, one induced by the inertial term and the other determined by the jump event. We also show that, when the multiplicative noise is linear in the random variable, one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We apply these results to a recently proposed stochastic model describing the dynamics of primary soil salinization, in which the salt mass balance within the soil root zone requires the analysis of different prescriptions arising from the resulting stochastic differential equation forced by multiplicative white Poisson noise, the features of which are tailored to the characters of the daily precipitation. A method is finally suggested to infer the most appropriate prescription from the data.

The Perpetual American Put Option for Jump-Diffusions

OpenAIRE

Aase, Knut K.

2010-01-01

-This is the author's version of the article"The Perpetual American Put Option for Jump-Diffusions" Energy Systems pp 493-507. We solve a specific optimal stopping problem with an infinite time horizon, when the state variable follows a jump-diffusion. The novelty of the paper is related to the inclusion of a jump component in this stochastic process. Under certain conditions, our solution can be interpreted as the price of an American perpetual put option. We characterize the continuation...

Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinfeng Ruan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.

Mean square stabilization and mean square exponential stabilization of stochastic BAM neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye, Zhiyong; Zhang, He; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Hua; Lu, Guichen

2015-01-01

Highlights: •This paper introduces a non-conservative Lyapunov functional. •The achieved results impose non-conservative and can be widely used. •The conditions are easily checked by the Matlab LMI Tool Box. The desired state feedback controller can be well represented by the conditions. -- Abstract: This paper addresses the mean square exponential stabilization problem of stochastic bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters and time-varying delays. By establishing a proper Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional and combining with LMIs technique, several sufficient conditions are derived for ensuring exponential stabilization in the mean square sense of such stochastic BAM neural networks. In addition, the achieved results are not difficult to verify for determining the mean square exponential stabilization of delayed BAM neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters and impose less restrictive and less conservative than the ones in previous papers. Finally, numerical results are given to show the effectiveness and applicability of the achieved results

Robust H∞ Filtering for Uncertain Neutral Stochastic Systems with Markovian Jumping Parameters and Time Delay

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Yajun Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the robust H∞ filter design problem for a class of uncertain neutral stochastic systems with Markovian jumping parameters and time delay. Based on the Lyapunov-Krasovskii theory and generalized Finsler Lemma, a delay-dependent stability condition is proposed to ensure not only that the filter error system is robustly stochastically stable but also that a prescribed H∞ performance level is satisfied for all admissible uncertainties. All obtained results are expressed in terms of linear matrix inequalities which can be easily solved by MATLAB LMI toolbox. Numerical examples are given to show that the results obtained are both less conservative and less complicated in computation.

Non-cooperative stochastic differential game theory of generalized Markov jump linear systems

CERN Document Server

Zhang, Cheng-ke; Zhou, Hai-ying; Bin, Ning

2017-01-01

This book systematically studies the stochastic non-cooperative differential game theory of generalized linear Markov jump systems and its application in the field of finance and insurance. The book is an in-depth research book of the continuous time and discrete time linear quadratic stochastic differential game, in order to establish a relatively complete framework of dynamic non-cooperative differential game theory. It uses the method of dynamic programming principle and Riccati equation, and derives it into all kinds of existence conditions and calculating method of the equilibrium strategies of dynamic non-cooperative differential game. Based on the game theory method, this book studies the corresponding robust control problem, especially the existence condition and design method of the optimal robust control strategy. The book discusses the theoretical results and its applications in the risk control, option pricing, and the optimal investment problem in the field of finance and insurance, enriching the...

Stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Parzen, Emanuel

1962-01-01

Well-written and accessible, this classic introduction to stochastic processes and related mathematics is appropriate for advanced undergraduate students of mathematics with a knowledge of calculus and continuous probability theory. The treatment offers examples of the wide variety of empirical phenomena for which stochastic processes provide mathematical models, and it develops the methods of probability model-building.Chapter 1 presents precise definitions of the notions of a random variable and a stochastic process and introduces the Wiener and Poisson processes. Subsequent chapters examine

Determination of the carbon market incremental payoff considering a stochastic jump-diffusion process

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Fabio Rodrigo Siqueira Batista

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to verify the robustness of the Least Square Monte Carlo and Grant, Vora & Weeks methods when used to determine the incremental payoff of the carbon market for renewable electricity generation projects, considering that the behavior of the price of Certified Emission Reductions, otherwise known as Carbon Credits, may be modeled using a jump-diffusion process. In addition, this paper analyses particular characteristics, such as absence of monotonicity, found in trigger curves obtained through use of the Grant, Vora & Weeks method to valuate these types of project.

Estimation and prediction under local volatility jump-diffusion model

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Namhyoung; Lee, Younhee

2018-02-01

Volatility is an important factor in operating a company and managing risk. In the portfolio optimization and risk hedging using the option, the value of the option is evaluated using the volatility model. Various attempts have been made to predict option value. Recent studies have shown that stochastic volatility models and jump-diffusion models reflect stock price movements accurately. However, these models have practical limitations. Combining them with the local volatility model, which is widely used among practitioners, may lead to better performance. In this study, we propose a more effective and efficient method of estimating option prices by combining the local volatility model with the jump-diffusion model and apply it using both artificial and actual market data to evaluate its performance. The calibration process for estimating the jump parameters and local volatility surfaces is divided into three stages. We apply the local volatility model, stochastic volatility model, and local volatility jump-diffusion model estimated by the proposed method to KOSPI 200 index option pricing. The proposed method displays good estimation and prediction performance.

Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations

CERN Document Server

Kessler, Mathieu; Sorensen, Michael

2012-01-01

The seventh volume in the SemStat series, Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations presents current research trends and recent developments in statistical methods for stochastic differential equations. Written to be accessible to both new students and seasoned researchers, each self-contained chapter starts with introductions to the topic at hand and builds gradually towards discussing recent research. The book covers Wiener-driven equations as well as stochastic differential equations with jumps, including continuous-time ARMA processes and COGARCH processes. It presents a sp

Jumps in binomial AR(1) processes

OpenAIRE

Weiß , Christian H.

2009-01-01

Abstract We consider the binomial AR(1) model for serially dependent processes of binomial counts. After a review of its definition and known properties, we investigate marginal and serial properties of jumps in such processes. Based on these results, we propose the jumps control chart for monitoring a binomial AR(1) process. We show how to evaluate the performance of this control chart and give design recommendations. correspondance: Tel.: +49 931 31 84968; ...

Mixed H-Infinity and Passive Filtering for Discrete Fuzzy Neural Networks With Stochastic Jumps and Time Delays.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Peng; Zhang, Yingqi; Chadli, Mohammed; Agarwal, Ramesh K

2016-04-01

In this brief, the problems of the mixed H-infinity and passivity performance analysis and design are investigated for discrete time-delay neural networks with Markovian jump parameters represented by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model. The main purpose of this brief is to design a filter to guarantee that the augmented Markovian jump fuzzy neural networks are stable in mean-square sense and satisfy a prescribed passivity performance index by employing the Lyapunov method and the stochastic analysis technique. Applying the matrix decomposition techniques, sufficient conditions are provided for the solvability of the problems, which can be formulated in terms of linear matrix inequalities. A numerical example is also presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.

Numerical simulations of piecewise deterministic Markov processes with an application to the stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Shaojie; Qian, Min; Qian, Hong; Zhang, Xuejuan

2016-12-01

The stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model is one of the best-known examples of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), in which the electrical potential across a cell membrane, V(t), is coupled with a mesoscopic Markov jump process representing the stochastic opening and closing of ion channels embedded in the membrane. The rates of the channel kinetics, in turn, are voltage-dependent. Due to this interdependence, an accurate and efficient sampling of the time evolution of the hybrid stochastic systems has been challenging. The current exact simulation methods require solving a voltage-dependent hitting time problem for multiple path-dependent intensity functions with random thresholds. This paper proposes a simulation algorithm that approximates an alternative representation of the exact solution by fitting the log-survival function of the inter-jump dwell time, H(t), with a piecewise linear one. The latter uses interpolation points that are chosen according to the time evolution of the H(t), as the numerical solution to the coupled ordinary differential equations of V(t) and H(t). This computational method can be applied to all PDMPs. Pathwise convergence of the approximated sample trajectories to the exact solution is proven, and error estimates are provided. Comparison with a previous algorithm that is based on piecewise constant approximation is also presented.

On the Stochastic Properties of Carbon Futures Prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

2012-10-01

Pricing carbon is a central concern in environmental economics, due to the importance of emissions trading schemes worldwide to regulate pollution. This paper documents the presence of small and large jumps in the stochastic process of the CO 2 futures price. The large jumps have a discrete origin, i.e. they can arise from various demand factors or institutional decisions on the tradable permits market. Contrary to the previously established literature, we show that the stochastic process of the carbon futures prices does not contain a continuous component (Brownian motion). The results are derived by using high-frequency data in the activity signature function framework (Todorov and Tauchen (2010, 2011)). The implication is that the carbon futures price should be rather modelled as an appropriately sampled, centered Levy or Poisson process. The pure-jump behavior of the carbon price could be explained by the lower volume of trades on this allowance market (compared to other highly liquid financial markets). (authors)

Stochastic interest model driven by compound Poisson process andBrownian motion with applications in life contingencies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shilong Li

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce a class of stochastic interest model driven by a compoundPoisson process and a Brownian motion, in which the jumping times of force of interest obeyscompound Poisson process and the continuous tiny fluctuations are described by Brownian motion, andthe adjustment in each jump of interest force is assumed to be random. Based on the proposed interestmodel, we discuss the expected discounted function, the validity of the model and actuarial presentvalues of life annuities and life insurances under different parameters and distribution settings. Ournumerical results show actuarial values could be sensitive to the parameters and distribution settings,which shows the importance of introducing this kind interest model.

Asymptotic Behaviour and Extinction of Delay Lotka-Volterra Model with Jump-Diffusion

OpenAIRE

Dan Li; Jing’an Cui; Guohua Song

2014-01-01

This paper studies the effect of jump-diffusion random environmental perturbations on the asymptotic behaviour and extinction of Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with delays. The contributions of this paper lie in the following: (a) to consider delay stochastic differential equation with jumps, we introduce a proper initial data space, in which the initial data may be discontinuous function with downward jumps; (b) we show that the delay stochastic differential equation with jumps associate...

Stochastic Interest Model Based on Compound Poisson Process and Applications in Actuarial Science

OpenAIRE

Li, Shilong; Yin, Chuancun; Zhao, Xia; Dai, Hongshuai

2017-01-01

Considering stochastic behavior of interest rates in financial market, we construct a new class of interest models based on compound Poisson process. Different from the references, this paper describes the randomness of interest rates by modeling the force of interest with Poisson random jumps directly. To solve the problem in calculation of accumulated interest force function, one important integral technique is employed. And a conception called the critical value is introduced to investigat...

Stochastic Games for Continuous-Time Jump Processes Under Finite-Horizon Payoff Criterion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wei, Qingda, E-mail: weiqd@hqu.edu.cn [Huaqiao University, School of Economics and Finance (China); Chen, Xian, E-mail: chenxian@amss.ac.cn [Peking University, School of Mathematical Sciences (China)

2016-10-15

In this paper we study two-person nonzero-sum games for continuous-time jump processes with the randomized history-dependent strategies under the finite-horizon payoff criterion. The state space is countable, and the transition rates and payoff functions are allowed to be unbounded from above and from below. Under the suitable conditions, we introduce a new topology for the set of all randomized Markov multi-strategies and establish its compactness and metrizability. Then by constructing the approximating sequences of the transition rates and payoff functions, we show that the optimal value function for each player is a unique solution to the corresponding optimality equation and obtain the existence of a randomized Markov Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we illustrate the applications of our main results with a controlled birth and death system.

Stochastic Games for Continuous-Time Jump Processes Under Finite-Horizon Payoff Criterion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Qingda; Chen, Xian

2016-01-01

In this paper we study two-person nonzero-sum games for continuous-time jump processes with the randomized history-dependent strategies under the finite-horizon payoff criterion. The state space is countable, and the transition rates and payoff functions are allowed to be unbounded from above and from below. Under the suitable conditions, we introduce a new topology for the set of all randomized Markov multi-strategies and establish its compactness and metrizability. Then by constructing the approximating sequences of the transition rates and payoff functions, we show that the optimal value function for each player is a unique solution to the corresponding optimality equation and obtain the existence of a randomized Markov Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we illustrate the applications of our main results with a controlled birth and death system.

Asymptotic Behaviour and Extinction of Delay Lotka-Volterra Model with Jump-Diffusion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the effect of jump-diffusion random environmental perturbations on the asymptotic behaviour and extinction of Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with delays. The contributions of this paper lie in the following: (a to consider delay stochastic differential equation with jumps, we introduce a proper initial data space, in which the initial data may be discontinuous function with downward jumps; (b we show that the delay stochastic differential equation with jumps associated with our model has a unique global positive solution and give sufficient conditions that ensure stochastically ultimate boundedness, moment average boundedness in time, and asymptotic polynomial growth of our model; (c the sufficient conditions for the extinction of the system are obtained, which generalized the former results and showed that the sufficiently large random jump magnitudes and intensity (average rate of jump events arrival may lead to extinction of the population.

The Impact of Jump Distributions on the Implied Volatility of Variance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicolato, Elisa; Pisani, Camilla; Pedersen, David Sloth

2017-01-01

We consider a tractable affine stochastic volatility model that generalizes the seminal Heston (1993) model by augmenting it with jumps in the instantaneous variance process. In this framework, we consider both realized variance options and VIX options, and we examine the impact of the distribution...... of jumps on the associated implied volatility smile. We provide sufficient conditions for the asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility of variance for small and large strikes. In particular, by selecting alternative jump distributions, we show that one can obtain fundamentally different shapes...

Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

Stochastic calculus for uncoupled continuous-time random walks.

Science.gov (United States)

Germano, Guido; Politi, Mauro; Scalas, Enrico; Schilling, René L

2009-06-01

The continuous-time random walk (CTRW) is a pure-jump stochastic process with several applications not only in physics but also in insurance, finance, and economics. A definition is given for a class of stochastic integrals driven by a CTRW, which includes the Itō and Stratonovich cases. An uncoupled CTRW with zero-mean jumps is a martingale. It is proved that, as a consequence of the martingale transform theorem, if the CTRW is a martingale, the Itō integral is a martingale too. It is shown how the definition of the stochastic integrals can be used to easily compute them by Monte Carlo simulation. The relations between a CTRW, its quadratic variation, its Stratonovich integral, and its Itō integral are highlighted by numerical calculations when the jumps in space of the CTRW have a symmetric Lévy alpha -stable distribution and its waiting times have a one-parameter Mittag-Leffler distribution. Remarkably, these distributions have fat tails and an unbounded quadratic variation. In the diffusive limit of vanishing scale parameters, the probability density of this kind of CTRW satisfies the space-time fractional diffusion equation (FDE) or more in general the fractional Fokker-Planck equation, which generalizes the standard diffusion equation, solved by the probability density of the Wiener process, and thus provides a phenomenologic model of anomalous diffusion. We also provide an analytic expression for the quadratic variation of the stochastic process described by the FDE and check it by Monte Carlo.

A fast exact simulation method for a class of Markov jump processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yao; Hu, Lili

2015-11-14

A new method of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), named the Hashing-Leaping method (HLM), for exact simulations of a class of Markov jump processes, is presented in this paper. The HLM has a conditional constant computational cost per event, which is independent of the number of exponential clocks in the Markov process. The main idea of the HLM is to repeatedly implement a hash-table-like bucket sort algorithm for all times of occurrence covered by a time step with length τ. This paper serves as an introduction to this new SSA method. We introduce the method, demonstrate its implementation, analyze its properties, and compare its performance with three other commonly used SSA methods in four examples. Our performance tests and CPU operation statistics show certain advantages of the HLM for large scale problems.

Convergence Analysis of Semi-Implicit Euler Methods for Solving Stochastic Age-Dependent Capital System with Variable Delays and Random Jump Magnitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qinghui Du

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We consider semi-implicit Euler methods for stochastic age-dependent capital system with variable delays and random jump magnitudes, and investigate the convergence of the numerical approximation. It is proved that the numerical approximate solutions converge to the analytical solutions in the mean-square sense under given conditions.

Nonlinear stochastic dynamics of mesoscopic homogeneous biochemical reaction systems—an analytical theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qian, Hong

2011-01-01

The nonlinear dynamics of biochemical reactions in a small-sized system on the order of a cell are stochastic. Assuming spatial homogeneity, the populations of n molecular species follow a multi-dimensional birth-and-death process on Z n . We introduce the Delbrück–Gillespie process, a continuous-time Markov jump process, whose Kolmogorov forward equation has been known as the chemical master equation, and whose stochastic trajectories can be computed via the Gillespie algorithm. Using simple models, we illustrate that a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations on R n emerges in the infinite system size limit. For finite system size, transitions among multiple attractors of the nonlinear dynamical system are rare events with exponentially long transit times. There is a separation of time scales between the deterministic ODEs and the stochastic Markov jumps between attractors. No diffusion process can provide a global representation that is accurate on both short and long time scales for the nonlinear, stochastic population dynamics. On the short time scale and near deterministic stable fixed points, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Gaussian processes give linear stochastic dynamics that exhibit time-irreversible circular motion for open, driven chemical systems. Extending this individual stochastic behaviour-based nonlinear population theory of molecular species to other biological systems is discussed. (invited article)

Main Achievements 2003-2004 - Interdisciplinary Research - Applications of theoretical physics - Stochastic processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

Some specific stochastic, jumping processes have been studied. They are defined in terms of the jump size distribution and the waiting time distribution which are mutually dependent. For the simplest case (the kangaroo process), the corresponding master equation has been completely solved and simple asymptotic expressions for the time-dependent probability distributions have been derived. A generalized version of that process, which takes into account the memory effects, has been proposed and a connection to transport processes, namely to the Boltzmann kinetic theory and diffusion, has been demonstrated. The same process, but defined on the circle instead of the axis, can possess the power law autocorrelation function; a simple formula for this function has been derived. Therefore, the process can serve as a useful model for the colored noises, in particular for the 1/f noise. It has been applied as a model of the driving force in the generalized Langevin equation, an impossible task with the standard kangaroo process. The equation has been solved by means of the Monte Carlo simulations. The resulting velocity and energy distributions exhibit extremely long memory about the initial conditions, despite an apparent fast equilibration of their comprehensive shape. The tails of both distributions fall faster than in the Maxwellian case

Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

Space-time-modulated stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Giona, Massimiliano

2017-10-01

Starting from the physical problem associated with the Lorentzian transformation of a Poisson-Kac process in inertial frames, the concept of space-time-modulated stochastic processes is introduced for processes possessing finite propagation velocity. This class of stochastic processes provides a two-way coupling between the stochastic perturbation acting on a physical observable and the evolution of the physical observable itself, which in turn influences the statistical properties of the stochastic perturbation during its evolution. The definition of space-time-modulated processes requires the introduction of two functions: a nonlinear amplitude modulation, controlling the intensity of the stochastic perturbation, and a time-horizon function, which modulates its statistical properties, providing irreducible feedback between the stochastic perturbation and the physical observable influenced by it. The latter property is the peculiar fingerprint of this class of models that makes them suitable for extension to generic curved-space times. Considering Poisson-Kac processes as prototypical examples of stochastic processes possessing finite propagation velocity, the balance equations for the probability density functions associated with their space-time modulations are derived. Several examples highlighting the peculiarities of space-time-modulated processes are thoroughly analyzed.

Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models by Nonparametric Filtering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kanaya, Shin; Kristensen, Dennis

2016-01-01

/estimated volatility process replacing the latent process. Our estimation strategy is applicable to both parametric and nonparametric stochastic volatility models, and can handle both jumps and market microstructure noise. The resulting estimators of the stochastic volatility model will carry additional biases...... and variances due to the first-step estimation, but under regularity conditions we show that these vanish asymptotically and our estimators inherit the asymptotic properties of the infeasible estimators based on observations of the volatility process. A simulation study examines the finite-sample properties...

Stability of impulsive systems driven by renewal processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Guerreiro Tome Antunes, D.J.; Hespanha, J.P.; Silvestre, C.J.

2009-01-01

Necessary and sufficient conditions are provided for stochastic stability and mean exponential stability of impulsive systems with jumps triggered by a renewal process, that is, the intervals between jumps are independent and identically distributed. The conditions for stochastic stability can be

Fuzzy Stochastic Optimal Guaranteed Cost Control of Bio-Economic Singular Markovian Jump Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Li; Zhang, Qingling; Zhu, Baoyan

2015-11-01

This paper establishes a bio-economic singular Markovian jump model by considering the price of the commodity as a Markov chain. The controller is designed for this system such that its biomass achieves the specified range with the least cost in a finite-time. Firstly, this system is described by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model. Secondly, a new design method of fuzzy state-feedback controllers is presented to ensure not only the regularity, nonimpulse, and stochastic singular finite-time boundedness of this kind of systems, but also an upper bound achieved for the cost function in the form of strict linear matrix inequalities. Finally, two examples including a practical example of eel seedling breeding are given to illustrate the merit and usability of the approach proposed in this paper.

Joint Pricing of VIX and SPX Options with Stochastic Volatility and Jump models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas; Stisen, Martin

2015-01-01

to existing literature, we derive numerically simpler VIX option and futures pricing formulas in the case of the SVJ model. Moreover, the paper is the first to study the pricing performance of three widely used models to SPX options and VIX derivatives.......With the existence of active markets for volatility derivatives and options on the underlying instrument, the need for models that are able to price these markets consistently has increased. Although pricing formulas for VIX and vanilla options are now available for commonly employed models...... and variance (SVJJ) are jointly calibrated to market quotes on SPX and VIX options together with VIX futures. The full flexibility of having jumps in both returns and volatility added to a stochastic volatility model is essential. Moreover, we find that the SVJJ model with the Feller condition imposed...

Stochastic analysis in discrete and continuous settings with normal martingales

CERN Document Server

Privault, Nicolas

2009-01-01

This volume gives a unified presentation of stochastic analysis for continuous and discontinuous stochastic processes, in both discrete and continuous time. It is mostly self-contained and accessible to graduate students and researchers having already received a basic training in probability. The simultaneous treatment of continuous and jump processes is done in the framework of normal martingales; that includes the Brownian motion and compensated Poisson processes as specific cases. In particular, the basic tools of stochastic analysis (chaos representation, gradient, divergence, integration by parts) are presented in this general setting. Applications are given to functional and deviation inequalities and mathematical finance.

Stability analysis of Markovian jumping stochastic Cohen—Grossberg neural networks with discrete and distributed time varying delays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M. Syed

2014-01-01

In this paper, the global asymptotic stability problem of Markovian jumping stochastic Cohen—Grossberg neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays (MJSCGNNs) is considered. A novel LMI-based stability criterion is obtained by constructing a new Lyapunov functional to guarantee the asymptotic stability of MJSCGNNs. Our results can be easily verified and they are also less restrictive than previously known criteria and can be applied to Cohen—Grossberg neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and cellular neural networks. Finally, the proposed stability conditions are demonstrated with numerical examples

Stochastic processes inference theory

CERN Document Server

Rao, Malempati M

2014-01-01

This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

The exit-time problem for a Markov jump process

Science.gov (United States)

Burch, N.; D'Elia, M.; Lehoucq, R. B.

2014-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to consider the exit-time problem for a finite-range Markov jump process, i.e, the distance the particle can jump is bounded independent of its location. Such jump diffusions are expedient models for anomalous transport exhibiting super-diffusion or nonstandard normal diffusion. We refer to the associated deterministic equation as a volume-constrained nonlocal diffusion equation. The volume constraint is the nonlocal analogue of a boundary condition necessary to demonstrate that the nonlocal diffusion equation is well-posed and is consistent with the jump process. A critical aspect of the analysis is a variational formulation and a recently developed nonlocal vector calculus. This calculus allows us to pose nonlocal backward and forward Kolmogorov equations, the former equation granting the various moments of the exit-time distribution.

Filtering of a Markov Jump Process with Counting Observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ceci, C.; Gerardi, A.

2000-01-01

This paper concerns the filtering of an R d -valued Markov pure jump process when only the total number of jumps are observed. Strong and weak uniqueness for the solutions of the filtering equations are discussed

Statistical Analysis of the First Passage Path Ensemble of Jump Processes

Science.gov (United States)

von Kleist, Max; Schütte, Christof; Zhang, Wei

2018-02-01

The transition mechanism of jump processes between two different subsets in state space reveals important dynamical information of the processes and therefore has attracted considerable attention in the past years. In this paper, we study the first passage path ensemble of both discrete-time and continuous-time jump processes on a finite state space. The main approach is to divide each first passage path into nonreactive and reactive segments and to study them separately. The analysis can be applied to jump processes which are non-ergodic, as well as continuous-time jump processes where the waiting time distributions are non-exponential. In the particular case that the jump processes are both Markovian and ergodic, our analysis elucidates the relations between the study of the first passage paths and the study of the transition paths in transition path theory. We provide algorithms to numerically compute statistics of the first passage path ensemble. The computational complexity of these algorithms scales with the complexity of solving a linear system, for which efficient methods are available. Several examples demonstrate the wide applicability of the derived results across research areas.

Weak convergence of marked point processes generated by crossings of multivariate jump processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tamborrino, Massimiliano; Sacerdote, Laura; Jacobsen, Martin

2014-01-01

We consider the multivariate point process determined by the crossing times of the components of a multivariate jump process through a multivariate boundary, assuming to reset each component to an initial value after its boundary crossing. We prove that this point process converges weakly...... process converging to a multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is discussed as a guideline for applying diffusion limits for jump processes. We apply our theoretical findings to neural network modeling. The proposed model gives a mathematical foundation to the generalization of the class of Leaky...

An introduction to probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Melsa, James L

2013-01-01

Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.

Stochastic models for transport in a fluidized bed

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dehling, H.G; Hoffmann, A.C; Stuut, H.W.

1999-01-01

In this paper we study stochastic models for the transport of particles in a fluidized bed reactor and compute the associated residence time distribution (RTD). Our main model is basically a diffusion process in [0;A] with reflecting/absorbing boundary conditions, modified by allowing jumps to the

Magnetization jumps in nanostructured Nd–Fe–B alloy at low temperatures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neznakhin, D.S.; Bolyachkin, A.S.; Volegov, A.S.; Markin, P.E.; Andreev, S.V.; Kudrevatykh, N.V.

2015-01-01

Magnetic properties of the nanostructured isotropic alloy on the base of Nd 2 Fe 14 B type phase were investigated at low temperatures. The evaluated average grain size of this phase was much smaller than its critical single domain diameter. Hence the magnetization and demagnetization processes were expected to be performed by coherent magnetization rotation. For such coercivity type system magnetization jumps were revealed on the demagnetization hysteresis loop branch in the vicinity of the coercive force at temperatures below 4 K. It was shown that magnetization jumps have a stochastic behavior and their number strongly depends on the temperature and the mass of measured samples. High temperature spikes corresponding to magnetization discontinuities were observed. All these results allowed to propose that magnetization jumps in nanostructured magnetics with magnetization rotation reversal processes comply with the local heating model. - Highlights: • Magnetization reversals of the nanostructured Nd–Fe–B-type alloy were obtained below 4 K. • Magnetization jumps were first observed for magnetization rotation coercivity type magnets. • Staircase magnetization reversal was explained within the framework of the local heating model

Quantum jumps in a three-level system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Javanainen, J.

1986-01-01

The authors study fluorescence in a scheme which is easy to treat theoretically: a two-level system driven by a laser and a third metastable state such that slow spontaneous transitions take place both from the excited state of a two-level system to the metastable state and from the metastable state to the ground state of the two-level system. With the aid of the quantum regression theorem the authors calculate the whole photon counting statistics at a detector which records scattering of the laser photons. In the limit of high intensity of the laser, the statistics of photon counts is found to be the same as the statistics of a two-state Markov jumps process. Thus, if the sequence of photon counts can be interpreted as a realization of a stochastic process, in a single experimental run the fluorescence should abruptly turn on and off for random intervals of time. The result is the same as given by the quantum-jump argument

Dynamical and hamiltonian dilations of stochastic processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumgartner, B.; Gruemm, H.-R.

1982-01-01

This is a study of the problem, which stochastic processes could arise from dynamical systems by loss of information. The notions of ''dilation'' and ''approximate dilation'' of a stochastic process are introduced to give exact definitions of this particular relationship. It is shown that every generalized stochastic process is approximately dilatable by a sequence of dynamical systems, but for stochastic processes in full generality one needs nets. (Author)

Hybrid stochastic simplifications for multiscale gene networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debussche Arnaud

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Stochastic simulation of gene networks by Markov processes has important applications in molecular biology. The complexity of exact simulation algorithms scales with the number of discrete jumps to be performed. Approximate schemes reduce the computational time by reducing the number of simulated discrete events. Also, answering important questions about the relation between network topology and intrinsic noise generation and propagation should be based on general mathematical results. These general results are difficult to obtain for exact models. Results We propose a unified framework for hybrid simplifications of Markov models of multiscale stochastic gene networks dynamics. We discuss several possible hybrid simplifications, and provide algorithms to obtain them from pure jump processes. In hybrid simplifications, some components are discrete and evolve by jumps, while other components are continuous. Hybrid simplifications are obtained by partial Kramers-Moyal expansion 123 which is equivalent to the application of the central limit theorem to a sub-model. By averaging and variable aggregation we drastically reduce simulation time and eliminate non-critical reactions. Hybrid and averaged simplifications can be used for more effective simulation algorithms and for obtaining general design principles relating noise to topology and time scales. The simplified models reproduce with good accuracy the stochastic properties of the gene networks, including waiting times in intermittence phenomena, fluctuation amplitudes and stationary distributions. The methods are illustrated on several gene network examples. Conclusion Hybrid simplifications can be used for onion-like (multi-layered approaches to multi-scale biochemical systems, in which various descriptions are used at various scales. Sets of discrete and continuous variables are treated with different methods and are coupled together in a physically justified approach.

Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

Robustness of Quadratic Hedging Strategies in Finance via Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Nunno, Giulia; Khedher, Asma; Vanmaele, Michèle

2015-01-01

We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each candidate-approximation converges to the solution of the original BSDEJ in a space which we specify. We use this result to investigate in further detail the consequences of the choice of the model to (partial) hedging in incomplete markets in finance. As an application, we consider models in which the small variations in the price dynamics are modeled with a Poisson random measure with infinite activity and models in which these small variations are modeled with a Brownian motion or are cut off. Using the convergence results on BSDEJs, we show that quadratic hedging strategies are robust towards the approximation of the market prices and we derive an estimation of the model risk

Robustness of Quadratic Hedging Strategies in Finance via Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Di Nunno, Giulia, E-mail: giulian@math.uio.no [University of Oslo, Center of Mathematics for Applications (Norway); Khedher, Asma, E-mail: asma.khedher@tum.de [Technische Universität München, Chair of Mathematical Finance (Germany); Vanmaele, Michèle, E-mail: michele.vanmaele@ugent.be [Ghent University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics (Belgium)

2015-12-15

We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each candidate-approximation converges to the solution of the original BSDEJ in a space which we specify. We use this result to investigate in further detail the consequences of the choice of the model to (partial) hedging in incomplete markets in finance. As an application, we consider models in which the small variations in the price dynamics are modeled with a Poisson random measure with infinite activity and models in which these small variations are modeled with a Brownian motion or are cut off. Using the convergence results on BSDEJs, we show that quadratic hedging strategies are robust towards the approximation of the market prices and we derive an estimation of the model risk.

Stochastic ℋ∞ Finite-Time Control of Discrete-Time Systems with Packet Loss

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingqi Zhang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the stochastic finite-time stabilization and ℋ∞ control problem for one family of linear discrete-time systems over networks with packet loss, parametric uncertainties, and time-varying norm-bounded disturbance. Firstly, the dynamic model description studied is given, which, if the packet dropout is assumed to be a discrete-time homogenous Markov process, the class of discrete-time linear systems with packet loss can be regarded as Markovian jump systems. Based on Lyapunov function approach, sufficient conditions are established for the resulting closed-loop discrete-time system with Markovian jumps to be stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time boundedness and then state feedback controllers are designed to guarantee stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time stabilization of the class of stochastic systems. The stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time boundedness criteria can be tackled in the form of linear matrix inequalities with a fixed parameter. As an auxiliary result, we also give sufficient conditions on the robust stochastic stabilization of the class of linear systems with packet loss. Finally, simulation examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the developed scheme.

Mean-Variance Hedging on Uncertain Time Horizon in a Market with a Jump

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kharroubi, Idris; Lim, Thomas; Ngoupeyou, Armand

2013-01-01

In this work, we study the problem of mean-variance hedging with a random horizon T∧τ, where T is a deterministic constant and τ is a jump time of the underlying asset price process. We first formulate this problem as a stochastic control problem and relate it to a system of BSDEs with a jump. We then provide a verification theorem which gives the optimal strategy for the mean-variance hedging using the solution of the previous system of BSDEs. Finally, we prove that this system of BSDEs admits a solution via a decomposition approach coming from filtration enlargement theory

Mean-Variance Hedging on Uncertain Time Horizon in a Market with a Jump

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kharroubi, Idris, E-mail: kharroubi@ceremade.dauphine.fr [Université Paris Dauphine, CEREMADE, CNRS UMR 7534 (France); Lim, Thomas, E-mail: lim@ensiie.fr [Université d’Evry and ENSIIE, Laboratoire d’Analyse et Probabilités (France); Ngoupeyou, Armand, E-mail: armand.ngoupeyou@univ-paris-diderot.fr [Université Paris 7, Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires (France)

2013-12-15

In this work, we study the problem of mean-variance hedging with a random horizon T∧τ, where T is a deterministic constant and τ is a jump time of the underlying asset price process. We first formulate this problem as a stochastic control problem and relate it to a system of BSDEs with a jump. We then provide a verification theorem which gives the optimal strategy for the mean-variance hedging using the solution of the previous system of BSDEs. Finally, we prove that this system of BSDEs admits a solution via a decomposition approach coming from filtration enlargement theory.

From individual to collective behaviour of coupled velocity jump processes: A locust example

KAUST Repository

Erban, Radek; Haskovec, Jan

2012-01-01

A class of stochastic individual-based models, written in terms of coupled velocity jump processes, is presented and analysed. This modelling approach incorporates recent experimental findings on the behaviour of locusts. It exhibits nontrivial dynamics with a pitchfork bifurcation and recovers the observed group directional switching. Estimates of the expected switching times, in terms of the number of individuals and values of the model coefi-cients, are obtained using the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. In the limit of large populations, a system of two kinetic equations (with nonlocal and nonlinear right hand side) is derived and analyzed. The existence of its solutions is proven and the system's long-time behaviour is investigated. Finally, a first step towards the mean field limit of topological interactions is made by studying the efiect of shrinking the interaction radius in the individual-based model. © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.

From individual to collective behaviour of coupled velocity jump processes: A locust example

KAUST Repository

Erban, Radek

2012-11-01

A class of stochastic individual-based models, written in terms of coupled velocity jump processes, is presented and analysed. This modelling approach incorporates recent experimental findings on the behaviour of locusts. It exhibits nontrivial dynamics with a pitchfork bifurcation and recovers the observed group directional switching. Estimates of the expected switching times, in terms of the number of individuals and values of the model coefi-cients, are obtained using the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. In the limit of large populations, a system of two kinetic equations (with nonlocal and nonlinear right hand side) is derived and analyzed. The existence of its solutions is proven and the system\\'s long-time behaviour is investigated. Finally, a first step towards the mean field limit of topological interactions is made by studying the efiect of shrinking the interaction radius in the individual-based model. © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.

Environmentally transmitted parasites: Host-jumping in a heterogeneous environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Caraco, Thomas; Cizauskas, Carrie A; Wang, Ing-Nang

2016-05-21

Groups of chronically infected reservoir-hosts contaminate resource patches by shedding a parasite׳s free-living stage. Novel-host groups visit the same patches, where they are exposed to infection. We treat arrival at patches, levels of parasite deposition, and infection of the novel host as stochastic processes, and derive the expected time elapsing until a host-jump (initial infection of a novel host) occurs. At stationarity, mean parasite densities are independent of reservoir-host group size. But within-patch parasite-density variances increase with reservoir group size. The probability of infecting a novel host declines with parasite-density variance; consequently larger reservoir groups extend the mean waiting time for host-jumping. Larger novel-host groups increase the probability of a host-jump during any single patch visit, but also reduce the total number of visits per unit time. Interaction of these effects implies that the waiting time for the first infection increases with the novel-host group size. If the reservoir-host uses resource patches in any non-uniform manner, reduced spatial overlap between host species increases the waiting time for host-jumping. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Jump rates for surface diffusion of large molecules from first principles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shea, Patrick, E-mail: patrick.shea@dal.ca; Kreuzer, Hans Jürgen [Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 3J5 (Canada)

2015-04-21

We apply a recently developed stochastic model for the surface diffusion of large molecules to calculate jump rates for 9,10-dithioanthracene on a Cu(111) surface. The necessary input parameters for the stochastic model are calculated from first principles using density functional theory (DFT). We find that the inclusion of van der Waals corrections to the DFT energies is critical to obtain good agreement with experimental results for the adsorption geometry and energy barrier for diffusion. The predictions for jump rates in our model are in excellent agreement with measured values and show a marked improvement over transition state theory (TST). We find that the jump rate prefactor is reduced by an order of magnitude from the TST estimate due to frictional damping resulting from energy exchange with surface phonons, as well as a rotational mode of the diffusing molecule.

Jump Telegraph Processes and Financial Markets with Memory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikita Ratanov

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper develops a new class of financial market models. These models are based on generalized telegraph processes with alternating velocities and jumps occurring at switching velocities. The model under consideration is arbitrage-free and complete if the directions of jumps in stock prices are in a certain correspondence with their velocity and with the behaviour of the interest rate. A risk-neutral measure and arbitrage-free formulae for a standard call option are constructed. This model has some features of models with memory, but it is more simple.

Applied probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Sumita, Ushio

1999-01-01

Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

Analysis and design of singular Markovian jump systems

CERN Document Server

Wang, Guoliang; Yan, Xinggang

2014-01-01

This monograph is an up-to-date presentation of the analysis and design of singular Markovian jump systems (SMJSs) in which the transition rate matrix of the underlying systems is generally uncertain, partially unknown and designed. The problems addressed include stability, stabilization, H∞ control and filtering, observer design, and adaptive control. applications of Markov process are investigated by using Lyapunov theory, linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), S-procedure and the stochastic Barbalat's Lemma, among other techniques.Features of the book include:·???????? study of the stability pr

Optimal dividend policies with transaction costs for a class of jump-diffusion processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hunting, Martin; Paulsen, Jostein

2013-01-01

his paper addresses the problem of finding an optimal dividend policy for a class of jump-diffusion processes. The jump component is a compound Poisson process with negative jumps, and the drift and diffusion components are assumed to satisfy some regularity and growth restrictions. Each dividend...... payment is changed by a fixed and a proportional cost, meaning that if ξ is paid out by the company, the shareholders receive kξ−K, where k and K are positive. The aim is to maximize expected discounted dividends until ruin. It is proved that when the jumps belong to a certain class of light...

Pricing FX Options in the Heston/CIR Jump-Diffusion Model with Log-Normal and Log-Uniform Jump Amplitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rehez Ahlip

2015-01-01

model for the exchange rate with log-normal jump amplitudes and the volatility model with log-uniformly distributed jump amplitudes. We assume that the domestic and foreign stochastic interest rates are governed by the CIR dynamics. The instantaneous volatility is correlated with the dynamics of the exchange rate return, whereas the domestic and foreign short-term rates are assumed to be independent of the dynamics of the exchange rate and its volatility. The main result furnishes a semianalytical formula for the price of the foreign exchange European call option.

Stochastic Stability for Time-Delay Markovian Jump Systems with Sector-Bounded Nonlinearities and More General Transition Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Ye

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with delay-dependent stochastic stability for time-delay Markovian jump systems (MJSs with sector-bounded nonlinearities and more general transition probabilities. Different from the previous results where the transition probability matrix is completely known, a more general transition probability matrix is considered which includes completely known elements, boundary known elements, and completely unknown ones. In order to get less conservative criterion, the state and transition probability information is used as much as possible to construct the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and deal with stability analysis. The delay-dependent sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities to guarantee the stability of systems. Finally, numerical examples are exploited to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

EFFICIENT QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF JUMP PROCESSES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SAFETY

OpenAIRE

Nganje, William E.

1999-01-01

This paper develops a dynamic framework for efficient quantitative risk assessment from the simplest general risk, combining three parameters (contamination, exposure, and dose response) in a Kataoka safety-first model and a Poisson probability representing the uncertainty effect or jump processes associated with food safety. Analysis indicates that incorporating jump processes in food safety risk assessment provides more efficient cost/risk tradeoffs. Nevertheless, increased margin of safety...

Stationary stochastic processes theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Lindgren, Georg

2012-01-01

Some Probability and Process BackgroundSample space, sample function, and observablesRandom variables and stochastic processesStationary processes and fieldsGaussian processesFour historical landmarksSample Function PropertiesQuadratic mean propertiesSample function continuityDerivatives, tangents, and other characteristicsStochastic integrationAn ergodic resultExercisesSpectral RepresentationsComplex-valued stochastic processesBochner's theorem and the spectral distributionSpectral representation of a stationary processGaussian processesStationary counting processesExercisesLinear Filters - General PropertiesLinear time invariant filtersLinear filters and differential equationsWhite noise in linear systemsLong range dependence, non-integrable spectra, and unstable systemsThe ARMA-familyLinear Filters - Special TopicsThe Hilbert transform and the envelopeThe sampling theoremKarhunen-Loève expansionClassical Ergodic Theory and MixingThe basic ergodic theorem in L2Stationarity and transformationsThe ergodic th...

Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granita; Bahar, Arifah

2015-01-01

The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution

Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); UTM Center for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)

2015-10-22

The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution.

Indirect Inference for Stochastic Differential Equations Based on Moment Expansions

KAUST Repository

Ballesio, Marco

2016-01-06

We provide an indirect inference method to estimate the parameters of timehomogeneous scalar diffusion and jump diffusion processes. We obtain a system of ODEs that approximate the time evolution of the first two moments of the process by the approximation of the stochastic model applying a second order Taylor expansion of the SDE s infinitesimal generator in the Dynkin s formula. This method allows a simple and efficient procedure to infer the parameters of such stochastic processes given the data by the maximization of the likelihood of an approximating Gaussian process described by the two moments equations. Finally, we perform numerical experiments for two datasets arising from organic and inorganic fouling deposition phenomena.

Simulation and inference for stochastic processes with YUIMA a comprehensive R framework for SDEs and other stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Iacus, Stefano M

2018-01-01

The YUIMA package is the first comprehensive R framework based on S4 classes and methods which allows for the simulation of stochastic differential equations driven by Wiener process, Lévy processes or fractional Brownian motion, as well as CARMA processes. The package performs various central statistical analyses such as quasi maximum likelihood estimation, adaptive Bayes estimation, structural change point analysis, hypotheses testing, asynchronous covariance estimation, lead-lag estimation, LASSO model selection, and so on. YUIMA also supports stochastic numerical analysis by fast computation of the expected value of functionals of stochastic processes through automatic asymptotic expansion by means of the Malliavin calculus. All models can be multidimensional, multiparametric or non parametric.The book explains briefly the underlying theory for simulation and inference of several classes of stochastic processes and then presents both simulation experiments and applications to real data. Although these ...

Stochastic Interest Model Based on Compound Poisson Process and Applications in Actuarial Science

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shilong Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Considering stochastic behavior of interest rates in financial market, we construct a new class of interest models based on compound Poisson process. Different from the references, this paper describes the randomness of interest rates by modeling the force of interest with Poisson random jumps directly. To solve the problem in calculation of accumulated interest force function, one important integral technique is employed. And a conception called the critical value is introduced to investigate the validity condition of this new model. We also discuss actuarial present values of several life annuities under this new interest model. Simulations are done to illustrate the theoretical results and the effect of parameters in interest model on actuarial present values is also analyzed.

Stochastic processes and quantum theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klauder, J.R.

1975-01-01

The author analyses a variety of stochastic processes, namely real time diffusion phenomena, which are analogues of imaginary time quantum theory and convariant imaginary time quantum field theory. He elaborates some standard properties involving probability measures and stochastic variables and considers a simple class of examples. Finally he develops the fact that certain stochastic theories actually exhibit divergences that simulate those of covariant quantum field theory and presents examples of both renormaizable and unrenormalizable behavior. (V.J.C.)

Ambit processes and stochastic partial differential equations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

Ambit processes are general stochastic processes based on stochastic integrals with respect to Lévy bases. Due to their flexible structure, they have great potential for providing realistic models for various applications such as in turbulence and finance. This papers studies the connection betwe...... ambit processes and solutions to stochastic partial differential equations. We investigate this relationship from two angles: from the Walsh theory of martingale measures and from the viewpoint of the Lévy noise analysis....

Existence and Uniqueness of Solutions to the Stochastic Porous Media Equations of Saturated Flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciotir, Ioana

2010-01-01

This paper proves the existence and uniqueness of nonnegative solutions for the stochastic porous media equations with multiplicative noise, infinite jump and discontinuous diffusivity function relevant in description of saturation processes in underground water infiltration in a bounded domain of R 3 .

Stability and Linear Quadratic Differential Games of Discrete-Time Markovian Jump Linear Systems with State-Dependent Noise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiying Sun

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We mainly consider the stability of discrete-time Markovian jump linear systems with state-dependent noise as well as its linear quadratic (LQ differential games. A necessary and sufficient condition involved with the connection between stochastic Tn-stability of Markovian jump linear systems with state-dependent noise and Lyapunov equation is proposed. And using the theory of stochastic Tn-stability, we give the optimal strategies and the optimal cost values for infinite horizon LQ stochastic differential games. It is demonstrated that the solutions of infinite horizon LQ stochastic differential games are concerned with four coupled generalized algebraic Riccati equations (GAREs. Finally, an iterative algorithm is presented to solve the four coupled GAREs and a simulation example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of it.

Quantum jumps are more quantum than quantum diffusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daryanoosh, Shakib; M Wiseman, Howard

2014-01-01

It was recently argued (Wiseman and Gambetta 2012 Phys. Rev. Lett. 108 220402) that the stochastic dynamics (jumps or diffusion) of an open quantum system are not inherent to the system, but rather depend on the existence and nature of a distant detector. The proposed experimental tests involved homodyne detection, giving rise to quantum diffusion, and required efficiencies η of well over 50%. Here we prove that this requirement (η>0.5) is universal for diffusive-type detection, even if the system is coupled to multiple baths. However, this no-go theorem does not apply to quantum jumps, and we propose a test involving a qubit with jump-type detectors, with a threshold efficiency of only 37%. That is, quantum jumps are ‘more quantum’, and open the way to practical experimental tests. Our scheme involves a novel sort of adaptive monitoring scheme on a system coupled to two baths. (paper)

Stochastic Modeling of Wind Derivatives in Energy Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred Espen Benth

2018-05-01

Full Text Available We model the logarithm of the spot price of electricity with a normal inverse Gaussian (NIG process and the wind speed and wind power production with two Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. In order to reproduce the correlation between the spot price and the wind power production, namely between a pure jump process and a continuous path process, respectively, we replace the small jumps of the NIG process by a Brownian term. We then apply our models to two different problems: first, to study from the stochastic point of view the income from a wind power plant, as the expected value of the product between the electricity spot price and the amount of energy produced; then, to construct and price a European put-type quanto option in the wind energy markets that allows the buyer to hedge against low prices and low wind power production in the plant. Calibration of the proposed models and related price formulas is also provided, according to specific datasets.

Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

CERN Document Server

Olofsson, Peter

2011-01-01

A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

Essentials of stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Durrett, Richard

2016-01-01

Building upon the previous editions, this textbook is a first course in stochastic processes taken by undergraduate and graduate students (MS and PhD students from math, statistics, economics, computer science, engineering, and finance departments) who have had a course in probability theory. It covers Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, Poisson processes, renewal processes, martingales, and option pricing. One can only learn a subject by seeing it in action, so there are a large number of examples and more than 300 carefully chosen exercises to deepen the reader’s understanding. Drawing from teaching experience and student feedback, there are many new examples and problems with solutions that use TI-83 to eliminate the tedious details of solving linear equations by hand, and the collection of exercises is much improved, with many more biological examples. Originally included in previous editions, material too advanced for this first course in stochastic processes has been eliminated while treatm...

Improved stochastic approximation methods for discretized parabolic partial differential equations

Science.gov (United States)

Guiaş, Flavius

2016-12-01

We present improvements of the stochastic direct simulation method, a known numerical scheme based on Markov jump processes which is used for approximating solutions of ordinary differential equations. This scheme is suited especially for spatial discretizations of evolution partial differential equations (PDEs). By exploiting the full path simulation of the stochastic method, we use this first approximation as a predictor and construct improved approximations by Picard iterations, Runge-Kutta steps, or a combination. This has as consequence an increased order of convergence. We illustrate the features of the improved method at a standard benchmark problem, a reaction-diffusion equation modeling a combustion process in one space dimension (1D) and two space dimensions (2D).

The dynamics of stochastic processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Basse-O'Connor, Andreas

In the present thesis the dynamics of stochastic processes is studied with a special attention to the semimartingale property. This is mainly motivated by the fact that semimartingales provide the class of the processes for which it is possible to define a reasonable stochastic calculus due...... to the Bichteler-Dellacherie Theorem. The semimartingale property of Gaussian processes is characterized in terms of their covariance function, spectral measure and spectral representation. In addition, representation and expansion of filtration results are provided as well. Special attention is given to moving...... average processes, and when the driving process is a Lévy or a chaos process the semimartingale property is characterized in the filtration spanned by the driving process and in the natural filtration when the latter is a Brownian motion. To obtain some of the above results an integrability of seminorm...

Composite stochastic processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kampen, N.G. van

Certain problems in physics and chemistry lead to the definition of a class of stochastic processes. Although they are not Markovian they can be treated explicitly to some extent. In particular, the probability distribution for large times can be found. It is shown to obey a master equation. This

Convergence of trajectories in fractal interpolation of stochastic processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MaIysz, Robert

2006-01-01

The notion of fractal interpolation functions (FIFs) can be applied to stochastic processes. Such construction is especially useful for the class of α-self-similar processes with stationary increments and for the class of α-fractional Brownian motions. For these classes, convergence of the Minkowski dimension of the graphs in fractal interpolation of the Hausdorff dimension of the graph of original process was studied in [Herburt I, MaIysz R. On convergence of box dimensions of fractal interpolation stochastic processes. Demonstratio Math 2000;4:873-88.], [MaIysz R. A generalization of fractal interpolation stochastic processes to higher dimension. Fractals 2001;9:415-28.], and [Herburt I. Box dimension of interpolations of self-similar processes with stationary increments. Probab Math Statist 2001;21:171-8.]. We prove that trajectories of fractal interpolation stochastic processes converge to the trajectory of the original process. We also show that convergence of the trajectories in fractal interpolation of stochastic processes is equivalent to the convergence of trajectories in linear interpolation

Exponential stability of delayed recurrent neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Zidong; Liu Yurong; Yu Li; Liu Xiaohui

2006-01-01

In this Letter, the global exponential stability analysis problem is considered for a class of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with time delays and Markovian jumping parameters. The jumping parameters considered here are generated from a continuous-time discrete-state homogeneous Markov process, which are governed by a Markov process with discrete and finite state space. The purpose of the problem addressed is to derive some easy-to-test conditions such that the dynamics of the neural network is stochastically exponentially stable in the mean square, independent of the time delay. By employing a new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is developed to establish the desired sufficient conditions, and therefore the global exponential stability in the mean square for the delayed RNNs can be easily checked by utilizing the numerically efficient Matlab LMI toolbox, and no tuning of parameters is required. A numerical example is exploited to show the usefulness of the derived LMI-based stability conditions

Berman-Konsowa principle for reversible Markov jump processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hollander, den W.Th.F.; Jansen, S.

2013-01-01

In this paper we prove a version of the Berman-Konsowa principle for reversible Markov jump processes on Polish spaces. The Berman-Konsowa principle provides a variational formula for the capacity of a pair of disjoint measurable sets. There are two versions, one involving a class of probability

Introduction to probability and stochastic processes with applications

CERN Document Server

Castañ, Blanco; Arunachalam, Viswanathan; Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu

2012-01-01

An easily accessible, real-world approach to probability and stochastic processes Introduction to Probability and Stochastic Processes with Applications presents a clear, easy-to-understand treatment of probability and stochastic processes, providing readers with a solid foundation they can build upon throughout their careers. With an emphasis on applications in engineering, applied sciences, business and finance, statistics, mathematics, and operations research, the book features numerous real-world examples that illustrate how random phenomena occur in nature and how to use probabilistic t

An introduction to stochastic processes with applications to biology

CERN Document Server

Allen, Linda J S

2010-01-01

An Introduction to Stochastic Processes with Applications to Biology, Second Edition presents the basic theory of stochastic processes necessary in understanding and applying stochastic methods to biological problems in areas such as population growth and extinction, drug kinetics, two-species competition and predation, the spread of epidemics, and the genetics of inbreeding. Because of their rich structure, the text focuses on discrete and continuous time Markov chains and continuous time and state Markov processes.New to the Second EditionA new chapter on stochastic differential equations th

Stochastic processes and applications diffusion processes, the Fokker-Planck and Langevin equations

CERN Document Server

Pavliotis, Grigorios A

2014-01-01

This book presents various results and techniques from the theory of stochastic processes that are useful in the study of stochastic problems in the natural sciences. The main focus is analytical methods, although numerical methods and statistical inference methodologies for studying diffusion processes are also presented. The goal is the development of techniques that are applicable to a wide variety of stochastic models that appear in physics, chemistry and other natural sciences. Applications such as stochastic resonance, Brownian motion in periodic potentials and Brownian motors are studied and the connection between diffusion processes and time-dependent statistical mechanics is elucidated.                 The book contains a large number of illustrations, examples, and exercises. It will be useful for graduate-level courses on stochastic processes for students in applied mathematics, physics and engineering. Many of the topics covered in this book (reversible diffusions, convergence to eq...

Markov Jump Processes Approximating a Non-Symmetric Generalized Diffusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limić, Nedžad

2011-01-01

Consider a non-symmetric generalized diffusion X(⋅) in ℝ d determined by the differential operator A(x) = -Σ ij ∂ i a ij (x)∂ j + Σ i b i (x)∂ i . In this paper the diffusion process is approximated by Markov jump processes X n (⋅), in homogeneous and isotropic grids G n ⊂ℝ d , which converge in distribution in the Skorokhod space D([0,∞),ℝ d ) to the diffusion X(⋅). The generators of X n (⋅) are constructed explicitly. Due to the homogeneity and isotropy of grids, the proposed method for d≥3 can be applied to processes for which the diffusion tensor {a ij (x)} 11 dd fulfills an additional condition. The proposed construction offers a simple method for simulation of sample paths of non-symmetric generalized diffusion. Simulations are carried out in terms of jump processes X n (⋅). For piece-wise constant functions a ij on ℝ d and piece-wise continuous functions a ij on ℝ 2 the construction and principal algorithm are described enabling an easy implementation into a computer code.

Is human failure a stochastic process?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, Ed M.

1997-01-01

Human performance results in failure events that occur with a risk-significant frequency. System analysts have taken for granted the random (stochastic) nature of these events in engineering assessments such as risk assessment. However, cognitive scientists and error technologists, at least those who have interest in human reliability, have, over the recent years, claimed that human error does not need this stochastic framework. Yet they still use the language appropriate to stochastic processes. This paper examines the potential for the stochastic nature of human failure production as the basis for human reliability analysis. It distinguishes and leaves to others, however, the epistemic uncertainties over the possible probability models for the real variability of human performance

Fourier analysis and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Brémaud, Pierre

2014-01-01

This work is unique as it provides a uniform treatment of the Fourier theories of functions (Fourier transforms and series, z-transforms), finite measures (characteristic functions, convergence in distribution), and stochastic processes (including arma series and point processes). It emphasises the links between these three themes. The chapter on the Fourier theory of point processes and signals structured by point processes is a novel addition to the literature on Fourier analysis of stochastic processes. It also connects the theory with recent lines of research such as biological spike signals and ultrawide-band communications. Although the treatment is mathematically rigorous, the convivial style makes the book accessible to a large audience. In particular, it will be interesting to anyone working in electrical engineering and communications, biology (point process signals) and econometrics (arma models). A careful review of the prerequisites (integration and probability theory in the appendix, Hilbert spa...

Lectures on Topics in Spatial Stochastic Processes

CERN Document Server

Capasso, Vincenzo; Ivanoff, B Gail; Dozzi, Marco; Dalang, Robert C; Mountford, Thomas S

2003-01-01

The theory of stochastic processes indexed by a partially ordered set has been the subject of much research over the past twenty years. The objective of this CIME International Summer School was to bring to a large audience of young probabilists the general theory of spatial processes, including the theory of set-indexed martingales and to present the different branches of applications of this theory, including stochastic geometry, spatial statistics, empirical processes, spatial estimators and survival analysis. This theory has a broad variety of applications in environmental sciences, social sciences, structure of material and image analysis. In this volume, the reader will find different approaches which foster the development of tools to modelling the spatial aspects of stochastic problems.

Stochastic transport processes in discrete biological systems

CERN Document Server

Frehland, Eckart

1982-01-01

These notes are in part based on a course for advanced students in the applications of stochastic processes held in 1978 at the University of Konstanz. These notes contain the results of re­ cent studies on the stochastic description of ion transport through biological membranes. In particular, they serve as an introduction to an unified theory of fluctuations in complex biological transport systems. We emphasize that the subject of this volume is not to introduce the mathematics of stochastic processes but to present a field of theoretical biophysics in which stochastic methods are important. In the last years the study of membrane noise has become an important method in biophysics. Valuable information on the ion transport mechanisms in membranes can be obtained from noise analysis. A number of different processes such as the opening and closing of ion channels have been shown to be sources of the measured current or voltage fluctuations. Bio­ logical 'transport systems can be complex. For example, the tr...

Bidirectional Classical Stochastic Processes with Measurements and Feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Hahne, G. E.

2005-01-01

A measurement on a quantum system is said to cause the "collapse" of the quantum state vector or density matrix. An analogous collapse occurs with measurements on a classical stochastic process. This paper addresses the question of describing the response of a classical stochastic process when there is feedback from the output of a measurement to the input, and is intended to give a model for quantum-mechanical processes that occur along a space-like reaction coordinate. The classical system can be thought of in physical terms as two counterflowing probability streams, which stochastically exchange probability currents in a way that the net probability current, and hence the overall probability, suitably interpreted, is conserved. The proposed formalism extends the . mathematics of those stochastic processes describable with linear, single-step, unidirectional transition probabilities, known as Markov chains and stochastic matrices. It is shown that a certain rearrangement and combination of the input and output of two stochastic matrices of the same order yields another matrix of the same type. Each measurement causes the partial collapse of the probability current distribution in the midst of such a process, giving rise to calculable, but non-Markov, values for the ensuing modification of the system's output probability distribution. The paper concludes with an analysis of a classical probabilistic version of the so-called grandfather paradox.

Conditioning exercises in ski jumping: biomechanical relationship of squat jumps, imitation jumps, and hill jumps.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorenzetti, Silvio; Ammann, Fabian; Windmüller, Sabrina; Häberle, Ramona; Müller, Sören; Gross, Micah; Plüss, Michael; Plüss, Stefan; Schödler, Berni; Hübner, Klaus

2017-11-22

As hill jumps are very time-consuming, ski jumping athletes often perform various imitation jumps during training. The performed jumps should be similar to hill jumps, but a direct comparison of the kinetic and kinematic parameters has not been performed yet. Therefore, this study aimed to correlate 11 common parameters during hill jumps (Oberstdorf Germany), squat jumps (wearing indoor shoes), and various imitation jumps (rolling 4°, rolling flat, static; jumping equipment or indoor shoes) on a custom-built instrumented vehicle with a catch by the coach. During the performed jumps, force and video data of the take-off of 10 athletes were measured. The imitation and squat jumps were then ranked. The main difference between the hill jumps and the imitation and squat jumps is the higher maximal force loading rate during the hill jumps. Imitation jumps performed on a rolling platform, on flat ground were the most similar to hill jumps in terms of the force-time, and leg joint kinematic properties. Thus, non-hill jumps with a technical focus should be performed from a rolling platform with a flat inrun with normal indoor shoes or jumping equipment, and high normal force loading rates should be the main focus of imitation training.

A data-driven wavelet-based approach for generating jumping loads

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jun; Li, Guo; Racic, Vitomir

2018-06-01

This paper suggests an approach to generate human jumping loads using wavelet transform and a database of individual jumping force records. A total of 970 individual jumping force records of various frequencies were first collected by three experiments from 147 test subjects. For each record, every jumping pulse was extracted and decomposed into seven levels by wavelet transform. All the decomposition coefficients were stored in an information database. Probability distributions of jumping cycle period, contact ratio and energy of the jumping pulse were statistically analyzed. Inspired by the theory of DNA recombination, an approach was developed by interchanging the wavelet coefficients between different jumping pulses. To generate a jumping force time history with N pulses, wavelet coefficients were first selected randomly from the database at each level. They were then used to reconstruct N pulses by the inverse wavelet transform. Jumping cycle periods and contract ratios were then generated randomly based on their probabilistic functions. These parameters were assigned to each of the N pulses which were in turn scaled by the amplitude factors βi to account for energy relationship between successive pulses. The final jumping force time history was obtained by linking all the N cycles end to end. This simulation approach can preserve the non-stationary features of the jumping load force in time-frequency domain. Application indicates that this approach can be used to generate jumping force time history due to single people jumping and also can be extended further to stochastic jumping loads due to groups and crowds.

INARCH(1) processes: Higher-order moments and jumps

OpenAIRE

Weiß , Christian H.

2010-01-01

Abstract The INARCH(1) model is a simple but practically relevant, two-parameter model for processes of overdispersed counts with an autoregressive serial dependence structure. We derive closed-form expressions for the joint (central) moments and cumulants of the INARCH(1) model up to order 4. These expressions are applied to derive moments of jumps in INARCH(1) processes. We illustrate this kind of application with a real-data example, and outline further potential applications. ...

Neural Network Based Finite-Time Stabilization for Discrete-Time Markov Jump Nonlinear Systems with Time Delays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Chen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the finite-time stabilization problem for discrete-time Markov jump nonlinear systems with time delays and norm-bounded exogenous disturbance. The nonlinearities in different jump modes are parameterized by neural networks. Subsequently, a linear difference inclusion state space representation for a class of neural networks is established. Based on this, sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities to guarantee stochastic finite-time boundedness and stochastic finite-time stabilization of the closed-loop system. A numerical example is illustrated to verify the efficiency of the proposed technique.

Robust L2-L∞ Filtering of Time-Delay Jump Systems with Respect to the Finite-Time Interval

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuping He

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studied the problem of stochastic finite-time boundedness and disturbance attenuation for a class of linear time-delayed systems with Markov jumping parameters. Sufficient conditions are provided to solve this problem. The L2-L∞ filters are, respectively, designed for time-delayed Markov jump linear systems with/without uncertain parameters such that the resulting filtering error dynamic system is stochastically finite-time bounded and has the finite-time interval disturbance attenuation γ for all admissible uncertainties, time delays, and unknown disturbances. By using stochastic Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach, it is shown that the filter designing problem is in terms of the solutions of a set of coupled linear matrix inequalities. Simulation examples are included to demonstrate the potential of the proposed results.

Modelling and application of stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

1986-01-01

The subject of modelling and application of stochastic processes is too vast to be exhausted in a single volume. In this book, attention is focused on a small subset of this vast subject. The primary emphasis is on realization and approximation of stochastic systems. Recently there has been considerable interest in the stochastic realization problem, and hence, an attempt has been made here to collect in one place some of the more recent approaches and algorithms for solving the stochastic realiza­ tion problem. Various different approaches for realizing linear minimum-phase systems, linear nonminimum-phase systems, and bilinear systems are presented. These approaches range from time-domain methods to spectral-domain methods. An overview of the chapter contents briefly describes these approaches. Also, in most of these chapters special attention is given to the problem of developing numerically ef­ ficient algorithms for obtaining reduced-order (approximate) stochastic realizations. On the application side,...

Hybrid framework for the simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duncan, Andrew; Erban, Radek; Zygalakis, Konstantinos

2016-01-01

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) [25]. While easy to implement and exact, the computational cost of using the Gillespie SSA to simulate such systems can become prohibitive as the frequency of reaction events increases. This has motivated numerous coarse-grained schemes, where the “fast” reactions are approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. While such approaches provide a good approximation when all reactants are abundant, the approximation breaks down when one or more species exist only in small concentrations and the fluctuations arising from the discrete nature of the reactions become significant. This is particularly problematic when using such methods to compute statistics of extinction times for chemical species, as well as simulating non-equilibrium systems such as cell-cycle models in which a single species can cycle between abundance and scarcity. In this paper, a hybrid jump-diffusion model for simulating well-mixed stochastic kinetics is derived. It acts as a bridge between the Gillespie SSA and the chemical Langevin equation. For low reactant reactions the underlying behaviour is purely discrete, while purely diffusive when the concentrations of all species are large, with the two different behaviours coexisting in the intermediate region. A bound on the weak error in the classical large volume scaling limit is obtained, and three different numerical discretisations of the jump-diffusion model are described. The benefits of such a formalism are illustrated using computational examples.

Hybrid framework for the simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Andrew; Erban, Radek; Zygalakis, Konstantinos

2016-12-01

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) [25]. While easy to implement and exact, the computational cost of using the Gillespie SSA to simulate such systems can become prohibitive as the frequency of reaction events increases. This has motivated numerous coarse-grained schemes, where the "fast" reactions are approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. While such approaches provide a good approximation when all reactants are abundant, the approximation breaks down when one or more species exist only in small concentrations and the fluctuations arising from the discrete nature of the reactions become significant. This is particularly problematic when using such methods to compute statistics of extinction times for chemical species, as well as simulating non-equilibrium systems such as cell-cycle models in which a single species can cycle between abundance and scarcity. In this paper, a hybrid jump-diffusion model for simulating well-mixed stochastic kinetics is derived. It acts as a bridge between the Gillespie SSA and the chemical Langevin equation. For low reactant reactions the underlying behaviour is purely discrete, while purely diffusive when the concentrations of all species are large, with the two different behaviours coexisting in the intermediate region. A bound on the weak error in the classical large volume scaling limit is obtained, and three different numerical discretisations of the jump-diffusion model are described. The benefits of such a formalism are illustrated using computational examples.

Hybrid framework for the simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duncan, Andrew, E-mail: a.duncan@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Mathematics, Imperial College, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Erban, Radek, E-mail: erban@maths.ox.ac.uk [Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Zygalakis, Konstantinos, E-mail: k.zygalakis@ed.ac.uk [School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FD (United Kingdom)

2016-12-01

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) [25]. While easy to implement and exact, the computational cost of using the Gillespie SSA to simulate such systems can become prohibitive as the frequency of reaction events increases. This has motivated numerous coarse-grained schemes, where the “fast” reactions are approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. While such approaches provide a good approximation when all reactants are abundant, the approximation breaks down when one or more species exist only in small concentrations and the fluctuations arising from the discrete nature of the reactions become significant. This is particularly problematic when using such methods to compute statistics of extinction times for chemical species, as well as simulating non-equilibrium systems such as cell-cycle models in which a single species can cycle between abundance and scarcity. In this paper, a hybrid jump-diffusion model for simulating well-mixed stochastic kinetics is derived. It acts as a bridge between the Gillespie SSA and the chemical Langevin equation. For low reactant reactions the underlying behaviour is purely discrete, while purely diffusive when the concentrations of all species are large, with the two different behaviours coexisting in the intermediate region. A bound on the weak error in the classical large volume scaling limit is obtained, and three different numerical discretisations of the jump-diffusion model are described. The benefits of such a formalism are illustrated using computational examples.

On Stochastic Finite-Time Control of Discrete-Time Fuzzy Systems with Packet Dropout

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingqi Zhang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness problems for one family of fuzzy discrete-time systems over networks with packet dropout, parametric uncertainties, and time-varying norm-bounded disturbance. Firstly, we present the dynamic model description studied, in which the discrete-time fuzzy T-S systems with packet loss can be described by one class of fuzzy Markovian jump systems. Then, the concepts of stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness and problem formulation are given. Based on Lyapunov function approach, sufficient conditions on stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness are established for the resulting closed-loop fuzzy discrete-time system with Markovian jumps, and state-feedback controllers are designed to ensure stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness of the class of fuzzy systems. The stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness criteria can be tackled in the form of linear matrix inequalities with a fixed parameter. As an auxiliary result, we also give sufficient conditions on the stochastic stability of the class of fuzzy T-S systems with packet loss. Finally, two illustrative examples are presented to show the validity of the developed methodology.

Absolute continuity under time shift of trajectories and related stochastic calculus

CERN Document Server

Löbus, Jörg-Uwe

2017-01-01

The text is concerned with a class of two-sided stochastic processes of the form X=W+A. Here W is a two-sided Brownian motion with random initial data at time zero and A\\equiv A(W) is a function of W. Elements of the related stochastic calculus are introduced. In particular, the calculus is adjusted to the case when A is a jump process. Absolute continuity of (X,P) under time shift of trajectories is investigated. For example under various conditions on the initial density with respect to the Lebesgue measure, m, and on A with A_0=0 we verify \\frac{P(dX_{\\cdot -t})}{P(dX_\\cdot)}=\\frac{m(X_{-t})}{m(X_0)}\\cdot \\prod_i\\left|\

Stochastic integration in Banach spaces theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Mandrekar, Vidyadhar

2015-01-01

Considering Poisson random measures as the driving sources for stochastic (partial) differential equations allows us to incorporate jumps and to model sudden, unexpected phenomena. By using such equations the present book introduces a new method for modeling the states of complex systems perturbed by random sources over time, such as interest rates in financial markets or temperature distributions in a specific region. It studies properties of the solutions of the stochastic equations, observing the long-term behavior and the sensitivity of the solutions to changes in the initial data. The authors consider an integration theory of measurable and adapted processes in appropriate Banach spaces as well as the non-Gaussian case, whereas most of the literature only focuses on predictable settings in Hilbert spaces. The book is intended for graduate students and researchers in stochastic (partial) differential equations, mathematical finance and non-linear filtering and assumes a knowledge of the required integrati...

Research in Stochastic Processes.

Science.gov (United States)

1982-10-31

Office of Scientific Research Grant AFOSR F49620 82 C 0009 Period: 1 Noveber 1981 through 31 October 1982 Title: Research in Stochastic Processes Co...STA4ATIS CAMBANIS The work briefly described here was developed in connection with problems arising from and related to the statistical comunication

Doubly stochastic Poisson processes in artificial neural learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Card, H C

1998-01-01

This paper investigates neuron activation statistics in artificial neural networks employing stochastic arithmetic. It is shown that a doubly stochastic Poisson process is an appropriate model for the signals in these circuits.

Bayesian inference for hybrid discrete-continuous stochastic kinetic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sherlock, Chris; Golightly, Andrew; Gillespie, Colin S

2014-01-01

We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process (MJP), computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of realistic size and complexity. In this paper, we consider an inference scheme based on a novel hybrid simulator that classifies reactions as either ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ with fast reactions evolving as a continuous Markov process whilst the remaining slow reaction occurrences are modelled through a MJP with time-dependent hazards. A linear noise approximation (LNA) of fast reaction dynamics is employed and slow reaction events are captured by exploiting the ability to solve the stochastic differential equation driving the LNA. This simulation procedure is used as a proposal mechanism inside a particle MCMC scheme, thus allowing Bayesian inference for the model parameters. We apply the scheme to a simple application and compare the output with an existing hybrid approach and also a scheme for performing inference for the underlying discrete stochastic model. (paper)

Stochastic interaction between TAE and alpha particles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krlin, L.; Pavlo, P.; Malijevsky, I.

1996-01-01

The interaction of toroidicity-induced Alfven eigenmodes with thermonuclear alpha particles in the intrinsic stochasticity regime was investigated based on the numerical integration of the equation of motion of alpha particles in the tokamak. The first results obtained for the ITER parameters and moderate wave amplitudes indicate that the stochasticity is highest in the trapped/passing boundary region, where the alpha particles jump stochastically between the two regimes with an appreciable radial excursion (about 0.5 m amplitudes). A similar chaotic behavior was also found for substantially lower energies (about 350 keV). 7 figs., 15 refs

Fast Quantum Algorithm for Predicting Descriptive Statistics of Stochastic Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Williams Colin P.

1999-01-01

Stochastic processes are used as a modeling tool in several sub-fields of physics, biology, and finance. Analytic understanding of the long term behavior of such processes is only tractable for very simple types of stochastic processes such as Markovian processes. However, in real world applications more complex stochastic processes often arise. In physics, the complicating factor might be nonlinearities; in biology it might be memory effects; and in finance is might be the non-random intentional behavior of participants in a market. In the absence of analytic insight, one is forced to understand these more complex stochastic processes via numerical simulation techniques. In this paper we present a quantum algorithm for performing such simulations. In particular, we show how a quantum algorithm can predict arbitrary descriptive statistics (moments) of N-step stochastic processes in just O(square root of N) time. That is, the quantum complexity is the square root of the classical complexity for performing such simulations. This is a significant speedup in comparison to the current state of the art.

LIBRJMCMC: AN OPEN-SOURCE GENERIC C++ LIBRARY FOR STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Brédif

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The librjmcmc is an open source C++ library that solves optimization problems using a stochastic framework. The library is primarily intended for but not limited to research purposes in computer vision, photogrammetry and remote sensing, as it has initially been developed in the context of extracting building footprints from digital elevation models using a marked point process of rectangles. It has been designed to be both highly modular and extensible, and have computational times comparable to a code specifically designed for a particular application, thanks to the powerful paradigms of metaprogramming and generic programming. The proposed stochastic optimization is built on the coupling of a stochastic Reversible-Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC sampler and a simulated annealing relaxation. This framework allows, with theoretical guarantees, the optimization of an unrestricted objective function without requiring any initial solution. The modularity of our library allows the processing of any kind of input data, whether they are 1D signals (e.g. LiDAR or SAR waveforms, 2D images, 3D point clouds... The library user has just to define a few modules describing its domain specific context: the encoding of a configuration (e.g. its object type in a marked point process context, reversible jump kernels (e.g. birth, death, modifications..., the optimized energies (e.g. data and regularization terms and the probabilized search space given by the reference process. Similar to this extensibility in the application domain, concepts are clearly and orthogonally separated such that it is straightforward to customize the convergence test, the temperature schedule, or to add visitors enabling visual feedback during the optimization. The library offers dedicated modules for marked point processes, allowing the user to optimize a Maximum A Posteriori (MAP criterion with an image data term energy on a marked point process of rectangles.

Hermite-Hadamard type inequality for φ{sub h}-convex stochastic processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sarıkaya, Mehmet Zeki, E-mail: sarikayamz@gmail.com [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Arts, Düzce University, Düzce (Turkey); Kiriş, Mehmet Eyüp, E-mail: kiris@aku.edu.tr [Department of Mathematics, Institute of Science and Arts, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar (Turkey); Çelik, Nuri, E-mail: ncelik@bartin.edu.tr [Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Bartın University, Bartın-Turkey (Turkey)

2016-04-18

The main aim of the present paper is to introduce φ{sub h}-convex stochastic processes and we investigate main properties of these mappings. Moreover, we prove the Hadamard-type inequalities for φ{sub h}-convex stochastic processes. We also give some new general inequalities for φ{sub h}-convex stochastic processes.

Uncertainty Reduction for Stochastic Processes on Complex Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Radicchi, Filippo; Castellano, Claudio

2018-05-01

Many real-world systems are characterized by stochastic dynamical rules where a complex network of interactions among individual elements probabilistically determines their state. Even with full knowledge of the network structure and of the stochastic rules, the ability to predict system configurations is generally characterized by a large uncertainty. Selecting a fraction of the nodes and observing their state may help to reduce the uncertainty about the unobserved nodes. However, choosing these points of observation in an optimal way is a highly nontrivial task, depending on the nature of the stochastic process and on the structure of the underlying interaction pattern. In this paper, we introduce a computationally efficient algorithm to determine quasioptimal solutions to the problem. The method leverages network sparsity to reduce computational complexity from exponential to almost quadratic, thus allowing the straightforward application of the method to mid-to-large-size systems. Although the method is exact only for equilibrium stochastic processes defined on trees, it turns out to be effective also for out-of-equilibrium processes on sparse loopy networks.

Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...

Selected papers on noise and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

1954-01-01

Six classic papers on stochastic process, selected to meet the needs of physicists, applied mathematicians, and engineers. Contents: 1.Chandrasekhar, S.: Stochastic Problems in Physics and Astronomy. 2. Uhlenbeck, G. E. and Ornstein, L. S.: On the Theory of the Browninan Motion. 3. Ming Chen Wang and Uhlenbeck, G. E.: On the Theory of the Browninan Motion II. 4. Rice, S. O.: Mathematical Analysis of Random Noise. 5. Kac, Mark: Random Walk and the Theory of Brownian Motion. 6. Doob, J. L.: The Brownian Movement and Stochastic Equations. Unabridged republication of the Dover reprint (1954). Pre

Stochastic models for the Trojan Y-Chromosome eradication strategy of an invasive species.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xueying; Walton, Jay R; Parshad, Rana D

2016-01-01

The Trojan Y-Chromosome (TYC) strategy, an autocidal genetic biocontrol method, has been proposed to eliminate invasive alien species. In this work, we develop a Markov jump process model for this strategy, and we verify that there is a positive probability for wild-type females going extinct within a finite time. Moreover, when sex-reversed Trojan females are introduced at a constant population size, we formulate a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model as an approximation to the proposed Markov jump process model. Using the SDE model, we investigate the probability distribution and expectation of the extinction time of wild-type females by solving Kolmogorov equations associated with these statistics. The results indicate how the probability distribution and expectation of the extinction time are shaped by the initial conditions and the model parameters.

Advances in the control of markov jump linear systems with no mode observation

CERN Document Server

Vargas, Alessandro N; do Val, João B R

2016-01-01

This brief broadens readers’ understanding of stochastic control by highlighting recent advances in the design of optimal control for Markov jump linear systems (MJLS). It also presents an algorithm that attempts to solve this open stochastic control problem, and provides a real-time application for controlling the speed of direct current motors, illustrating the practical usefulness of MJLS. Particularly, it offers novel insights into the control of systems when the controller does not have access to the Markovian mode.

Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Posch, Olaf

Understanding the process of economic growth involves comparing competing theoretical models and evaluating their empirical relevance. Our approach is to take the neoclassical stochastic growth model directly to the data and make inferences about the model parameters of interest. In this paper...

Distance covariance for stochastic processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Matsui, Muneya; Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Samorodnitsky, Gennady

2017-01-01

The distance covariance of two random vectors is a measure of their dependence. The empirical distance covariance and correlation can be used as statistical tools for testing whether two random vectors are independent. We propose an analog of the distance covariance for two stochastic processes...

Stochastic process variation in deep-submicron CMOS circuits and algorithms

CERN Document Server

Zjajo, Amir

2014-01-01

One of the most notable features of nanometer scale CMOS technology is the increasing magnitude of variability of the key device parameters affecting performance of integrated circuits. The growth of variability can be attributed to multiple factors, including the difficulty of manufacturing control, the emergence of new systematic variation-generating mechanisms, and most importantly, the increase in atomic-scale randomness, where device operation must be described as a stochastic process. In addition to wide-sense stationary stochastic device variability and temperature variation, existence of non-stationary stochastic electrical noise associated with fundamental processes in integrated-circuit devices represents an elementary limit on the performance of electronic circuits. In an attempt to address these issues, Stochastic Process Variation in Deep-Submicron CMOS: Circuits and Algorithms offers unique combination of mathematical treatment of random process variation, electrical noise and temperature and ne...

On the source of stochastic volatility: Evidence from CAC40 index options during the subprime crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Slim, Skander

2016-12-01

This paper investigates the performance of time-changed Lévy processes with distinct sources of return volatility variation for modeling cross-sectional option prices on the CAC40 index during the subprime crisis. Specifically, we propose a multi-factor stochastic volatility model: one factor captures the diffusion component dynamics and two factors capture positive and negative jump variations. In-sample and out-of-sample tests show that our full-fledged model significantly outperforms nested lower-dimensional specifications. We find that all three sources of return volatility variation, with different persistence, are needed to properly account for market pricing dynamics across moneyness, maturity and volatility level. Besides, the model estimation reveals negative risk premium for both diffusive volatility and downward jump intensity whereas a positive risk premium is found to be attributed to upward jump intensity.

Process theory for supervisory control of stochastic systems with data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Markovski, J.

2012-01-01

We propose a process theory for supervisory control of stochastic nondeterministic plants with data-based observations. The Markovian process theory with data relies on the notion of Markovian partial bisimulation to capture controllability of stochastic nondeterministic systems. It presents a

Visualisation for Stochastic Process Algebras: The Graphic Truth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Smith, Michael James Andrew; Gilmore, Stephen

2011-01-01

and stochastic activity networks provide an automaton-based view of the model, which may be easier to visualise, at the expense of portability. In this paper, we argue that we can achieve the benefits of both approaches by generating a graphical view of a stochastic process algebra model, which is synchronised...

A Jump Diffusion Model for Volatility and Duration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wei, Wei; Pelletier, Denis

by the market microstructure theory. Traditional measures of volatility do not utilize durations. I adopt a jump diffusion process to model the persistence of intraday volatility and conditional duration, and their interdependence. The jump component is disentangled from the continuous part of the price......, volatility and conditional duration process. I develop a MCMC algorithm for the inference of irregularly spaced multivariate process with jumps. The algorithm provides smoothed estimates of the latent variables such as spot volatility, jump times and jump sizes. I apply this model to IBM data and I find...... meaningful relationship between volatility and conditional duration. Also, jumps play an important role in the total variation, but the jump variation is smaller than traditional measures that use returns sampled at lower frequency....

The stochastic chemomechanics of the F(1)-ATPase molecular motor.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaspard, P; Gerritsma, E

2007-08-21

We report a theoretical study of the F(1)-ATPase molecular rotary motor experimentally studied by R. Yasuda, H. Noji, M. Yoshida, K. Kinosita Jr., H. Itoh [Nature 410 (2001) 898]. The motor is modeled as a stochastic process for the angle of its shaft and the chemical state of its catalytic sites. The stochastic process is ruled by six coupled Fokker-Planck equations for the biased diffusion of the angle and the random jumps between the chemical states. The model reproduces the experimental observations that the motor proceeds by substeps and the rotation rate saturates at high concentrations of adenosine triphosphate or at low values of the friction coefficient. Moreover, predictions are made about the dependence of the rotation rate on temperature, and about the behavior of the F(1) motor under the effect of an external torque, especially, in the regime of synthesis of adenosine triphosphate.

Drop jumping. I. The influence of jumping technique on the biomechanics of jumping

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bobbert, M F; Huijing, P A; van Ingen Schenau, G J

In the literature, drop jumping is advocated as an effective exercise for athletes who prepare themselves for explosive activities. When executing drop jumps, different jumping techniques can be used. In this study, the influence of jumping technique on the biomechanics of jumping is investigated.

Synchronization of Markovian jumping stochastic complex networks with distributed time delays and probabilistic interval discrete time-varying delays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Hongjie; Yue Dong

2010-01-01

The paper investigates the synchronization stability problem for a class of complex dynamical networks with Markovian jumping parameters and mixed time delays. The complex networks consist of m modes and the networks switch from one mode to another according to a Markovian chain with known transition probability. The mixed time delays are composed of discrete and distributed delays, the discrete time delay is assumed to be random and its probability distribution is known a priori. In terms of the probability distribution of the delays, the new type of system model with probability-distribution-dependent parameter matrices is proposed. Based on the stochastic analysis techniques and the properties of the Kronecker product, delay-dependent synchronization stability criteria in the mean square are derived in the form of linear matrix inequalities which can be readily solved by using the LMI toolbox in MATLAB, the solvability of derived conditions depends on not only the size of the delay, but also the probability of the delay-taking values in some intervals. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

An Analytically Tractable Model for Pricing Multiasset Options with Correlated Jump-Diffusion Equity Processes and a Two-Factor Stochastic Yield Curve

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tristan Guillaume

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper shows how to value multiasset options analytically in a modeling framework that combines both continuous and discontinuous variations in the underlying equity or foreign exchange processes and a stochastic, two-factor yield curve. All correlations are taken into account, between the factors driving the yield curve, between fixed income and equity as asset classes, and between the individual equity assets themselves. The valuation method is applied to three of the most popular two-asset options.

Forecasting financial asset processes: stochastic dynamics via learning neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Giebel, S; Rainer, M

2010-01-01

Models for financial asset dynamics usually take into account their inherent unpredictable nature by including a suitable stochastic component into their process. Unknown (forward) values of financial assets (at a given time in the future) are usually estimated as expectations of the stochastic asset under a suitable risk-neutral measure. This estimation requires the stochastic model to be calibrated to some history of sufficient length in the past. Apart from inherent limitations, due to the stochastic nature of the process, the predictive power is also limited by the simplifying assumptions of the common calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation and regression methods, performed often without weights on the historic time series, or with static weights only. Here we propose a novel method of "intelligent" calibration, using learning neural networks in order to dynamically adapt the parameters of the stochastic model. Hence we have a stochastic process with time dependent parameters, the dynamics of the parameters being themselves learned continuously by a neural network. The back propagation in training the previous weights is limited to a certain memory length (in the examples we consider 10 previous business days), which is similar to the maximal time lag of autoregressive processes. We demonstrate the learning efficiency of the new algorithm by tracking the next-day forecasts for the EURTRY and EUR-HUF exchange rates each.

Stochastic processes, slaves and supersymmetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drummond, I T; Horgan, R R

2012-01-01

We extend the work of Tănase-Nicola and Kurchan on the structure of diffusion processes and the associated supersymmetry algebra by examining the responses of a simple statistical system to external disturbances of various kinds. We consider both the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for the process and the associated diffusion equation. The influence of the disturbances can be understood by augmenting the original SDE with an equation for slave variables. The evolution of the slave variables describes the behaviour of line elements carried along in the stochastic flow. These line elements, together with the associated surface and volume elements constructed from them, provide the basis of the supersymmetry properties of the theory. For ease of visualization, and in order to emphasize a helpful electromagnetic analogy, we work in three dimensions. The results are all generalizable to higher dimensions and can be specialized to one and two dimensions. The electromagnetic analogy is a useful starting point for calculating asymptotic results at low temperature that can be compared with direct numerical evaluations. We also examine the problems that arise in a direct numerical simulation of the stochastic equation together with the slave equations. We pay special attention to the dependence of the slave variable statistics on temperature. We identify in specific models the critical temperature below which the slave variable distribution ceases to have a variance and consider the effect on estimates of susceptibilities. (paper)

Stochastic Simulation of Process Calculi for Biology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Phillips

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Biological systems typically involve large numbers of components with complex, highly parallel interactions and intrinsic stochasticity. To model this complexity, numerous programming languages based on process calculi have been developed, many of which are expressive enough to generate unbounded numbers of molecular species and reactions. As a result of this expressiveness, such calculi cannot rely on standard reaction-based simulation methods, which require fixed numbers of species and reactions. Rather than implementing custom stochastic simulation algorithms for each process calculus, we propose to use a generic abstract machine that can be instantiated to a range of process calculi and a range of reaction-based simulation algorithms. The abstract machine functions as a just-in-time compiler, which dynamically updates the set of possible reactions and chooses the next reaction in an iterative cycle. In this short paper we give a brief summary of the generic abstract machine, and show how it can be instantiated with the stochastic simulation algorithm known as Gillespie's Direct Method. We also discuss the wider implications of such an abstract machine, and outline how it can be used to simulate multiple calculi simultaneously within a common framework.

Robust Guaranteed Cost Observer Design for Singular Markovian Jump Time-Delay Systems with Generally Incomplete Transition Probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanbo Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is devoted to the investigation of the design of robust guaranteed cost observer for a class of linear singular Markovian jump time-delay systems with generally incomplete transition probability. In this singular model, each transition rate can be completely unknown or only its estimate value is known. Based on stability theory of stochastic differential equations and linear matrix inequality (LMI technique, we design an observer to ensure that, for all uncertainties, the resulting augmented system is regular, impulse free, and robust stochastically stable with the proposed guaranteed cost performance. Finally, a convex optimization problem with LMI constraints is formulated to design the suboptimal guaranteed cost filters for linear singular Markovian jump time-delay systems with generally incomplete transition probability.

Anomalous scaling of stochastic processes and the Moses effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lijian; Bassler, Kevin E; McCauley, Joseph L; Gunaratne, Gemunu H

2017-04-01

The state of a stochastic process evolving over a time t is typically assumed to lie on a normal distribution whose width scales like t^{1/2}. However, processes in which the probability distribution is not normal and the scaling exponent differs from 1/2 are known. The search for possible origins of such "anomalous" scaling and approaches to quantify them are the motivations for the work reported here. In processes with stationary increments, where the stochastic process is time-independent, autocorrelations between increments and infinite variance of increments can cause anomalous scaling. These sources have been referred to as the Joseph effect and the Noah effect, respectively. If the increments are nonstationary, then scaling of increments with t can also lead to anomalous scaling, a mechanism we refer to as the Moses effect. Scaling exponents quantifying the three effects are defined and related to the Hurst exponent that characterizes the overall scaling of the stochastic process. Methods of time series analysis that enable accurate independent measurement of each exponent are presented. Simple stochastic processes are used to illustrate each effect. Intraday financial time series data are analyzed, revealing that their anomalous scaling is due only to the Moses effect. In the context of financial market data, we reiterate that the Joseph exponent, not the Hurst exponent, is the appropriate measure to test the efficient market hypothesis.

Anomalous scaling of stochastic processes and the Moses effect

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lijian; Bassler, Kevin E.; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

2017-04-01

The state of a stochastic process evolving over a time t is typically assumed to lie on a normal distribution whose width scales like t1/2. However, processes in which the probability distribution is not normal and the scaling exponent differs from 1/2 are known. The search for possible origins of such "anomalous" scaling and approaches to quantify them are the motivations for the work reported here. In processes with stationary increments, where the stochastic process is time-independent, autocorrelations between increments and infinite variance of increments can cause anomalous scaling. These sources have been referred to as the Joseph effect and the Noah effect, respectively. If the increments are nonstationary, then scaling of increments with t can also lead to anomalous scaling, a mechanism we refer to as the Moses effect. Scaling exponents quantifying the three effects are defined and related to the Hurst exponent that characterizes the overall scaling of the stochastic process. Methods of time series analysis that enable accurate independent measurement of each exponent are presented. Simple stochastic processes are used to illustrate each effect. Intraday financial time series data are analyzed, revealing that their anomalous scaling is due only to the Moses effect. In the context of financial market data, we reiterate that the Joseph exponent, not the Hurst exponent, is the appropriate measure to test the efficient market hypothesis.

Jump probabilities in the non-Markovian quantum jump method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haerkoenen, Kari

2010-01-01

The dynamics of a non-Markovian open quantum system described by a general time-local master equation is studied. The propagation of the density operator is constructed in terms of two processes: (i) deterministic evolution and (ii) evolution of a probability density functional in the projective Hilbert space. The analysis provides a derivation for the jump probabilities used in the recently developed non-Markovian quantum jump (NMQJ) method (Piilo et al 2008 Phys. Rev. Lett. 100 180402).

Towards Model Checking Stochastic Process Algebra

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hermanns, H.; Grieskamp, W.; Santen, T.; Katoen, Joost P.; Stoddart, B.; Meyer-Kayser, J.; Siegle, M.

2000-01-01

Stochastic process algebras have been proven useful because they allow behaviour-oriented performance and reliability modelling. As opposed to traditional performance modelling techniques, the behaviour- oriented style supports composition and abstraction in a natural way. However, analysis of

? filtering for stochastic systems driven by Poisson processes

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Bo; Wu, Zheng-Guang; Park, Ju H.; Shi, Guodong; Zhang, Ya

2015-01-01

This paper investigates the ? filtering problem for stochastic systems driven by Poisson processes. By utilising the martingale theory such as the predictable projection operator and the dual predictable projection operator, this paper transforms the expectation of stochastic integral with respect to the Poisson process into the expectation of Lebesgue integral. Then, based on this, this paper designs an ? filter such that the filtering error system is mean-square asymptotically stable and satisfies a prescribed ? performance level. Finally, a simulation example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filtering scheme.

Computer Aided Continuous Time Stochastic Process Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

2001-01-01

A grey-box approach to process modelling that combines deterministic and stochastic modelling is advocated for identification of models for model-based control of batch and semi-batch processes. A computer-aided tool designed for supporting decision-making within the corresponding modelling cycle...

Gene regulation and noise reduction by coupling of stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Alexandre F.; Hornos, José Eduardo M.; Reinitz, John

2015-02-01

Here we characterize the low-noise regime of a stochastic model for a negative self-regulating binary gene. The model has two stochastic variables, the protein number and the state of the gene. Each state of the gene behaves as a protein source governed by a Poisson process. The coupling between the two gene states depends on protein number. This fact has a very important implication: There exist protein production regimes characterized by sub-Poissonian noise because of negative covariance between the two stochastic variables of the model. Hence the protein numbers obey a probability distribution that has a peak that is sharper than those of the two coupled Poisson processes that are combined to produce it. Biochemically, the noise reduction in protein number occurs when the switching of the genetic state is more rapid than protein synthesis or degradation. We consider the chemical reaction rates necessary for Poisson and sub-Poisson processes in prokaryotes and eucaryotes. Our results suggest that the coupling of multiple stochastic processes in a negative covariance regime might be a widespread mechanism for noise reduction.

Gene regulation and noise reduction by coupling of stochastic processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Alexandre F; Hornos, José Eduardo M; Reinitz, John

2015-02-01

Here we characterize the low-noise regime of a stochastic model for a negative self-regulating binary gene. The model has two stochastic variables, the protein number and the state of the gene. Each state of the gene behaves as a protein source governed by a Poisson process. The coupling between the two gene states depends on protein number. This fact has a very important implication: There exist protein production regimes characterized by sub-Poissonian noise because of negative covariance between the two stochastic variables of the model. Hence the protein numbers obey a probability distribution that has a peak that is sharper than those of the two coupled Poisson processes that are combined to produce it. Biochemically, the noise reduction in protein number occurs when the switching of the genetic state is more rapid than protein synthesis or degradation. We consider the chemical reaction rates necessary for Poisson and sub-Poisson processes in prokaryotes and eucaryotes. Our results suggest that the coupling of multiple stochastic processes in a negative covariance regime might be a widespread mechanism for noise reduction.

Data-based inference of generators for Markov jump processes using convex optimization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D.T. Crommelin (Daan); E. Vanden-Eijnden (Eric)

2009-01-01

textabstractA variational approach to the estimation of generators for Markov jump processes from discretely sampled data is discussed and generalized. In this approach, one first calculates the spectrum of the discrete maximum likelihood estimator for the transition matrix consistent with

Stochastic Analysis of Gaussian Processes via Fredholm Representation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tommi Sottinen

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We show that every separable Gaussian process with integrable variance function admits a Fredholm representation with respect to a Brownian motion. We extend the Fredholm representation to a transfer principle and develop stochastic analysis by using it. We show the convenience of the Fredholm representation by giving applications to equivalence in law, bridges, series expansions, stochastic differential equations, and maximum likelihood estimations.

Relationships Between Countermovement Jump Ground Reaction Forces and Jump Height, Reactive Strength Index, and Jump Time.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, Leland A; Harry, John R; Mercer, John A

2018-01-01

Barker, LA, Harry, JR, and Mercer, JA. Relationships between countermovement jump ground reaction forces and jump height, reactive strength index, and jump time. J Strength Cond Res 32(1): 248-254, 2018-The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between ground reaction force (GRF) variables to jump height, jump time, and the reactive strength index (RSI). Twenty-six, Division-I, male, soccer players performed 3 maximum effort countermovement jumps (CMJs) on a dual-force platform system that measured 3-dimensional kinetic data. The trial producing peak jump height was used for analysis. Vertical GRF (Fz) variables were divided into unloading, eccentric, amortization, and concentric phases and correlated with jump height, RSI (RSI = jump height/jump time), and jump time (from start to takeoff). Significant correlations were observed between jump height and RSI, concentric kinetic energy, peak power, concentric work, and concentric displacement. Significant correlations were observed between RSI and jump time, peak power, unload Fz, eccentric work, eccentric rate of force development (RFD), amortization Fz, amortization time, second Fz peak, average concentric Fz, and concentric displacement. Significant correlations were observed between jump time and unload Fz, eccentric work, eccentric RFD, amortization Fz, amortization time, average concentric Fz, and concentric work. In conclusion, jump height correlated with variables derived from the concentric phase only (work, power, and displacement), whereas Fz variables from the unloading, eccentric, amortization, and concentric phases correlated highly with RSI and jump time. These observations demonstrate the importance of countermovement Fz characteristics for time-sensitive CMJ performance measures. Researchers and practitioners should include RSI and jump time with jump height to improve their assessment of jump performance.

Stochastic conditional intensity processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bauwens, Luc; Hautsch, Nikolaus

2006-01-01

model allows for a wide range of (cross-)autocorrelation structures in multivariate point processes. The model is estimated by simulated maximum likelihood (SML) using the efficient importance sampling (EIS) technique. By modeling price intensities based on NYSE trading, we provide significant evidence......In this article, we introduce the so-called stochastic conditional intensity (SCI) model by extending Russell’s (1999) autoregressive conditional intensity (ACI) model by a latent common dynamic factor that jointly drives the individual intensity components. We show by simulations that the proposed...... for a joint latent factor and show that its inclusion allows for an improved and more parsimonious specification of the multivariate intensity process...

Impact of time-inhomogeneous jumps and leverage type effects on returns and realised variances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veraart, Almut

This paper studies the effect of time-inhomogeneous jumps and leverage type effects on realised variance calculations when the logarithmic asset price is given by a Lévy-driven stochastic volatility model. In such a model, the realised variance is an inconsistent estimator of the integrated...

Dissipativity-Based Reliable Control for Fuzzy Markov Jump Systems With Actuator Faults.

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Jie; Lu, Renquan; Shi, Peng; Su, Hongye; Wu, Zheng-Guang

2017-09-01

This paper is concerned with the problem of reliable dissipative control for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with Markov jumping parameters. Considering the influence of actuator faults, a sufficient condition is developed to ensure that the resultant closed-loop system is stochastically stable and strictly ( Q, S,R )-dissipative based on a relaxed approach in which mode-dependent and fuzzy-basis-dependent Lyapunov functions are employed. Then a reliable dissipative control for fuzzy Markov jump systems is designed, with sufficient condition proposed for the existence of guaranteed stability and dissipativity controller. The effectiveness and potential of the obtained design method is verified by two simulation examples.

The Effect of Jump on Evaluating Natural Resource Investments

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yang Haisheng; Zhou Yongzhang; Wang Shugong

2004-01-01

The evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices.It is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing. This paper describes a model for evaluating natural resource investments under uncertainty from a new perspective. The previous works in this field mostly regard the movements of natural resource prices as a continuous GBM process, which pays few attentions to the shock of unexpected bad news. Our model provides the first theoretical method to analyze the impact of such "jump" on investment decisions. It concludes that the more frequently bad news happens,the earlier a project will be invested.

Classical and spatial stochastic processes with applications to biology

CERN Document Server

Schinazi, Rinaldo B

2014-01-01

The revised and expanded edition of this textbook presents the concepts and applications of random processes with the same illuminating simplicity as its first edition, but with the notable addition of substantial modern material on biological modeling. While still treating many important problems in fields such as engineering and mathematical physics, the book also focuses on the highly relevant topics of cancerous mutations, influenza evolution, drug resistance, and immune response. The models used elegantly apply various classical stochastic models presented earlier in the text, and exercises are included throughout to reinforce essential concepts. The second edition of Classical and Spatial Stochastic Processes is suitable as a textbook for courses in stochastic processes at the advanced-undergraduate and graduate levels, or as a self-study resource for researchers and practitioners in mathematics, engineering, physics, and mathematical biology. Reviews of the first edition: An appetizing textbook for a f...

Multiscale integration schemes for jump-diffusion systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Givon, D.; Kevrekidis, I.G.

2008-12-09

We study a two-time-scale system of jump-diffusion stochastic differential equations. We analyze a class of multiscale integration methods for these systems, which, in the spirit of [1], consist of a hybridization between a standard solver for the slow components and short runs for the fast dynamics, which are used to estimate the effect that the fast components have on the slow ones. We obtain explicit bounds for the discrepancy between the results of the multiscale integration method and the slow components of the original system.

Minimum uncertainty and squeezing in diffusion processes and stochastic quantization

Science.gov (United States)

Demartino, S.; Desiena, S.; Illuminati, Fabrizo; Vitiello, Giuseppe

1994-01-01

We show that uncertainty relations, as well as minimum uncertainty coherent and squeezed states, are structural properties for diffusion processes. Through Nelson stochastic quantization we derive the stochastic image of the quantum mechanical coherent and squeezed states.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

Science.gov (United States)

Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

2016-01-01

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

Mathematical statistics and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Bosq, Denis

2013-01-01

Generally, books on mathematical statistics are restricted to the case of independent identically distributed random variables. In this book however, both this case AND the case of dependent variables, i.e. statistics for discrete and continuous time processes, are studied. This second case is very important for today's practitioners.Mathematical Statistics and Stochastic Processes is based on decision theory and asymptotic statistics and contains up-to-date information on the relevant topics of theory of probability, estimation, confidence intervals, non-parametric statistics and rob

ON REGRESSION REPRESENTATIONS OF STOCHASTIC-PROCESSES

NARCIS (Netherlands)

RUSCHENDORF, L; DEVALK, [No Value

We construct a.s. nonlinear regression representations of general stochastic processes (X(n))n is-an-element-of N. As a consequence we obtain in particular special regression representations of Markov chains and of certain m-dependent sequences. For m-dependent sequences we obtain a constructive

Rate Theory for Correlated Processes: Double Jumps in Adatom Diffusion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, J.; Jacobsen, Karsten Wedel; Sethna, J.

1997-01-01

We study the rate of activated motion over multiple barriers, in particular the correlated double jump of an adatom diffusing on a missing-row reconstructed platinum (110) surface. We develop a transition path theory, showing that the activation energy is given by the minimum-energy trajectory...... which succeeds in the double jump. We explicitly calculate this trajectory within an effective-medium molecular dynamics simulation. A cusp in the acceptance region leads to a root T prefactor for the activated rate of double jumps. Theory and numerical results agree....

Stochastic mean-field dynamics for fermions in the weak coupling limit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lacroix, D.

2005-09-01

Assuming that the effect of the residual interaction beyond mean-field is weak and can be treated as a statistical ensemble of two-body interactions, a Markovian quantum jump theory is developed for fermionic systems. In this theory, jumps occur between many-body densities formed of pairs of states D |Φ a > b | / b | |Φ a > where |Φ a > and |Φ b > are anti-symmetrized products of single-particle states. The underlying Stochastic Mean-Field (SMF) theory is discussed and applied to the monopole vibration of a spherical 40 Ca nucleus under the influence of a statistical ensemble of two-body contact interactions. In this example, the mean-field evolution of one-body observables is recovered by averaging over different stochastic trajectories while fluctuations beyond mean-field are observed. Finally, the nature of the fluctuations is discussed. (author)

Topological superposition of abstractions of stochastic processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bujorianu, L.M.; Bujorianu, M.C.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we present a sound integration mechanism for Markov processes that are abstractions of stochastic hybrid systems (SHS). In a previous work, we have defined a very general model of SHS and we proved that the realization of an SHS is a Markov process. Moreover, we have developed a

Simulation of anaerobic digestion processes using stochastic algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Palanichamy, Jegathambal; Palani, Sundarambal

2014-01-01

The Anaerobic Digestion (AD) processes involve numerous complex biological and chemical reactions occurring simultaneously. Appropriate and efficient models are to be developed for simulation of anaerobic digestion systems. Although several models have been developed, mostly they suffer from lack of knowledge on constants, complexity and weak generalization. The basis of the deterministic approach for modelling the physico and bio-chemical reactions occurring in the AD system is the law of mass action, which gives the simple relationship between the reaction rates and the species concentrations. The assumptions made in the deterministic models are not hold true for the reactions involving chemical species of low concentration. The stochastic behaviour of the physicochemical processes can be modeled at mesoscopic level by application of the stochastic algorithms. In this paper a stochastic algorithm (Gillespie Tau Leap Method) developed in MATLAB was applied to predict the concentration of glucose, acids and methane formation at different time intervals. By this the performance of the digester system can be controlled. The processes given by ADM1 (Anaerobic Digestion Model 1) were taken for verification of the model. The proposed model was verified by comparing the results of Gillespie's algorithms with the deterministic solution for conversion of glucose into methane through degraders. At higher value of 'τ' (timestep), the computational time required for reaching the steady state is more since the number of chosen reactions is less. When the simulation time step is reduced, the results are similar to ODE solver. It was concluded that the stochastic algorithm is a suitable approach for the simulation of complex anaerobic digestion processes. The accuracy of the results depends on the optimum selection of tau value.

Verification of Stochastic Process Calculi

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skrypnyuk, Nataliya

algorithms for constructing bisimulation relations, computing (overapproximations of) sets of reachable states and computing the expected time reachability, the last for a linear fragment of IMC. In all the cases we have the complexities of algorithms which are low polynomial in the size of the syntactic....... In support of this claim we have developed analysis methods that belong to a particular type of Static Analysis { Data Flow / Pathway Analysis. These methods have previously been applied to a number of non-stochastic process calculi. In this thesis we are lifting them to the stochastic calculus...... of Interactive Markov Chains (IMC). We have devised the Pathway Analysis of IMC that is not only correct in the sense of overapproximating all possible behaviour scenarios, as is usual for Static Analysis methods, but is also precise. This gives us the possibility to explicitly decide on the trade-o between...

Theory of boiling-up jump

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labuntsov, D.A.; Avdeev, A.A.

1981-01-01

Concept of boiling-up jump representing a zone of intense volume boiling-up separating overtaking flow of overheated metastable liquid from an area of equilibrium flow located below along the flow is introduced. It is shown that boiling-up jump is a shock wave of rarefaction. It is concluded that entropy increment occurs on the jump. Characteristics of adiabatic shock wave curve of boiling- up in ''pressure-specific volume'' coordinates have been found and its form has been investigated. Stability of boiling-up jump has been analyzed as well. On the basis of approach developed analysis is carried out on the shock adiobatic curve of condensation. Concept of boiling-up jump may be applied to the analysis of boiling-up processes when flowing liquid through packings during emergency pressure drop etc [ru

Mixed H2/H∞ Pitch Control of Wind Turbine with a Markovian Jump Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lin, Zhongwei; Liu, Jizhen; Wu, Qiuwei

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a Markovian jump model and the corresponding H2 /H∞ control strategy for the wind turbine driven by the stochastic switching wind speed, which can be used to regulate the generator speed in order to harvest the rated power while reducing the fatigue loads on the mechanical side...... operating points of wind turbine can be divided into separate subregions correspondingly, where the model parameters and the control mode can be fixed in each mode. Then, the mixed H2 /H∞ control problem is discussed for such a class of Markovian jump wind turbine working above the rated wind speed...

Accuracy of Jump-Mat Systems for Measuring Jump Height.

Science.gov (United States)

Pueo, Basilio; Lipinska, Patrycja; Jiménez-Olmedo, José M; Zmijewski, Piotr; Hopkins, Will G

2017-08-01

Vertical-jump tests are commonly used to evaluate lower-limb power of athletes and nonathletes. Several types of equipment are available for this purpose. To compare the error of measurement of 2 jump-mat systems (Chronojump-Boscosystem and Globus Ergo Tester) with that of a motion-capture system as a criterion and to determine the modifying effect of foot length on jump height. Thirty-one young adult men alternated 4 countermovement jumps with 4 squat jumps. Mean jump height and standard deviations representing technical error of measurement arising from each device and variability arising from the subjects themselves were estimated with a novel mixed model and evaluated via standardization and magnitude-based inference. The jump-mat systems produced nearly identical measures of jump height (differences in means and in technical errors of measurement ≤1 mm). Countermovement and squat-jump height were both 13.6 cm higher with motion capture (90% confidence limits ±0.3 cm), but this very large difference was reduced to small unclear differences when adjusted to a foot length of zero. Variability in countermovement and squat-jump height arising from the subjects was small (1.1 and 1.5 cm, respectively, 90% confidence limits ±0.3 cm); technical error of motion capture was similar in magnitude (1.7 and 1.6 cm, ±0.3 and ±0.4 cm), and that of the jump mats was similar or smaller (1.2 and 0.3 cm, ±0.5 and ±0.9 cm). The jump-mat systems provide trustworthy measurements for monitoring changes in jump height. Foot length can explain the substantially higher jump height observed with motion capture.

Stochastic processes dominate during boreal bryophyte community assembly.

Science.gov (United States)

Fenton, Nicole J; Bergeron, Yves

2013-09-01

Why are plant species found in certain locations and not in others? The study of community assembly rules has attempted to answer this question, and many studies articulate the historic dichotomy of deterministic (predictable niches) vs. stochastic (random or semi-random processes). The study of successional sequences to determine whether they converge, as would be expected by deterministic theory, or diverge, as stochastic theory would suggest, has been one method used to investigate this question. In this article we ask the question: Do similar boreal bryophyte communities develop in the similar habitat created by convergent succession after fires of different severities? Or do the stochastic processes generated by fires of different severity lead to different communities? Specifically we predict that deterministic structure will be more important for large forest-floor species than stochastic processes, and that the inverse will be true for small bryophyte species. We used multivariate regression trees and model selection to determine the relative weight of structure (forest structure, substrates, soil structure) and processes (fire severity) for two groups of bryophyte species sampled in 12 sites (seven high-severity and five low-severity fires). Contrary to our first hypothesis, processes were as important for large forest-floor bryophytes as for small pocket species. Fire severity, its interaction with the quality of available habitat, and its impact on the creation of biological legacies played dominant roles in determining community structure. In this study, sites with nearly identical forest structure, generated via convergent succession after high- and low-severity fire, were compared to see whether these sites supported similar bryophyte communities. While similar to some degree, both the large forest-floor species and the pocket species differed after high-severity fire compared to low-severity fire. This result suggests that the "how," or process of

Jump Variation Estimation with Noisy High Frequency Financial Data via Wavelets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Zhang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This paper develops a method to improve the estimation of jump variation using high frequency data with the existence of market microstructure noises. Accurate estimation of jump variation is in high demand, as it is an important component of volatility in finance for portfolio allocation, derivative pricing and risk management. The method has a two-step procedure with detection and estimation. In Step 1, we detect the jump locations by performing wavelet transformation on the observed noisy price processes. Since wavelet coefficients are significantly larger at the jump locations than the others, we calibrate the wavelet coefficients through a threshold and declare jump points if the absolute wavelet coefficients exceed the threshold. In Step 2 we estimate the jump variation by averaging noisy price processes at each side of a declared jump point and then taking the difference between the two averages of the jump point. Specifically, for each jump location detected in Step 1, we get two averages from the observed noisy price processes, one before the detected jump location and one after it, and then take their difference to estimate the jump variation. Theoretically, we show that the two-step procedure based on average realized volatility processes can achieve a convergence rate close to O P ( n − 4 / 9 , which is better than the convergence rate O P ( n − 1 / 4 for the procedure based on the original noisy process, where n is the sample size. Numerically, the method based on average realized volatility processes indeed performs better than that based on the price processes. Empirically, we study the distribution of jump variation using Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks and compare the results using the original price process and the average realized volatility processes.

Some functional limit theorems for compound Cox processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korolev, Victor Yu. [Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Moscow State University, Moscow (Russian Federation); Institute of Informatics Problems FRC CSC RAS (Russian Federation); Chertok, A. V. [Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Moscow State University, Moscow (Russian Federation); Euphoria Group LLC (Russian Federation); Korchagin, A. Yu. [Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Moscow State University, Moscow (Russian Federation); Kossova, E. V. [Higher School of Economics National Research University, Moscow (Russian Federation); Zeifman, Alexander I. [Vologda State University, S.Orlova, 6, Vologda (Russian Federation); Institute of Informatics Problems FRC CSC RAS, ISEDT RAS (Russian Federation)

2016-06-08

An improved version of the functional limit theorem is proved establishing weak convergence of random walks generated by compound doubly stochastic Poisson processes (compound Cox processes) to Lévy processes in the Skorokhod space under more realistic moment conditions. As corollaries, theorems are proved on convergence of random walks with jumps having finite variances to Lévy processes with variance-mean mixed normal distributions, in particular, to stable Lévy processes.

Some functional limit theorems for compound Cox processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korolev, Victor Yu.; Chertok, A. V.; Korchagin, A. Yu.; Kossova, E. V.; Zeifman, Alexander I.

2016-01-01

An improved version of the functional limit theorem is proved establishing weak convergence of random walks generated by compound doubly stochastic Poisson processes (compound Cox processes) to Lévy processes in the Skorokhod space under more realistic moment conditions. As corollaries, theorems are proved on convergence of random walks with jumps having finite variances to Lévy processes with variance-mean mixed normal distributions, in particular, to stable Lévy processes.

Effects of timing of signal indicating jump directions on knee biomechanics in jump-landing-jump tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Stephenson, Mitchell L; Hinshaw, Taylour J; Wadley, Haley A; Zhu, Qin; Wilson, Margaret A; Byra, Mark; Dai, Boyi

2018-03-01

A variety of the available time to react (ATR) has been utilised to study knee biomechanics during reactive jump-landing tasks. The purpose was to quantify knee kinematics and kinetics during a jump-land-jump task of three possible directions as the ATR was reduced. Thirty-four recreational athletes performed 45 trials of a jump-land-jump task, during which the direction of the second jump (lateral, medial or vertical) was indicated before they initiated the first jump, the instant they initiated the first jump, 300 ms before landing, 150 ms before landing or at the instant of landing. Knee joint angles and moments close to the instant of landing were significantly different when the ATR was equal to or more than 300 ms before landing, but became similar when the ATR was 150 ms or 0 ms before landing. As the ATR was decreased, knee moments decreased for the medial jump direction, but increased for the lateral jump direction. When the ATR is shorter than an individual's reaction time, the movement pattern cannot be pre-planned before landing. Knee biomechanics are dependent on the timing of the signal and the subsequent jump direction. Precise control of timing and screening athletes with low ATR are suggested.

Data-Driven Jump Detection Thresholds for Application in Jump Regressions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Davies

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper develops a method to select the threshold in threshold-based jump detection methods. The method is motivated by an analysis of threshold-based jump detection methods in the context of jump-diffusion models. We show that over the range of sampling frequencies a researcher is most likely to encounter that the usual in-fill asymptotics provide a poor guide for selecting the jump threshold. Because of this we develop a sample-based method. Our method estimates the number of jumps over a grid of thresholds and selects the optimal threshold at what we term the ‘take-off’ point in the estimated number of jumps. We show that this method consistently estimates the jumps and their indices as the sampling interval goes to zero. In several Monte Carlo studies we evaluate the performance of our method based on its ability to accurately locate jumps and its ability to distinguish between true jumps and large diffusive moves. In one of these Monte Carlo studies we evaluate the performance of our method in a jump regression context. Finally, we apply our method in two empirical studies. In one we estimate the number of jumps and report the jump threshold our method selects for three commonly used market indices. In the other empirical application we perform a series of jump regressions using our method to select the jump threshold.

Stochastic mean-field dynamics for fermions in the weak coupling limit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lacroix, D

2005-09-15

Assuming that the effect of the residual interaction beyond mean-field is weak and can be treated as a statistical ensemble of two-body interactions, a Markovian quantum jump theory is developed for fermionic systems. In this theory, jumps occur between many-body densities formed of pairs of states D |{phi}{sub a}> <|{phi}{sub b}| / <|{phi}{sub b} | |{phi} {sub a}> where |{phi}{sub a}> and |{phi}{sub b}> are anti-symmetrized products of single-particle states. The underlying Stochastic Mean-Field (SMF) theory is discussed and applied to the monopole vibration of a spherical {sup 40}Ca nucleus under the influence of a statistical ensemble of two-body contact interactions. In this example, the mean-field evolution of one-body observables is recovered by averaging over different stochastic trajectories while fluctuations beyond mean-field are observed. Finally, the nature of the fluctuations is discussed. (author)

From quantum mechanics to finance: Microfoundations for jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in diffusion price processes

Science.gov (United States)

Henkel, Christof

2017-03-01

We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior and provide microfoundations. After we link the endogenous agent behavior to price dynamics we establish the circumstances under which the dynamics converge to an Itô-diffusion price processes in the large market limit.

An introduction to continuous-time stochastic processes theory, models, and applications to finance, biology, and medicine

CERN Document Server

Capasso, Vincenzo

2015-01-01

This textbook, now in its third edition, offers a rigorous and self-contained introduction to the theory of continuous-time stochastic processes, stochastic integrals, and stochastic differential equations. Expertly balancing theory and applications, the work features concrete examples of modeling real-world problems from biology, medicine, industrial applications, finance, and insurance using stochastic methods. No previous knowledge of stochastic processes is required. Key topics include: * Markov processes * Stochastic differential equations * Arbitrage-free markets and financial derivatives * Insurance risk * Population dynamics, and epidemics * Agent-based models New to the Third Edition: * Infinitely divisible distributions * Random measures * Levy processes * Fractional Brownian motion * Ergodic theory * Karhunen-Loeve expansion * Additional applications * Additional  exercises * Smoluchowski  approximation of  Langevin systems An Introduction to Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes, Third Editio...

Mobile Jump Assessment (mJump): A Descriptive and Inferential Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mateos-Angulo, Alvaro; Galán-Mercant, Alejandro; Cuesta-Vargas, Antonio

2015-08-26

Vertical jump tests are used in athletics and rehabilitation to measure physical performance in people of different age ranges and fitness. Jumping ability can be analyzed through different variables, and the most commonly used are fly time and jump height. They can be obtained by a variety of measuring devices, but most are limited to laboratory use only. The current generation of smartphones contains inertial sensors that are able to record kinematic variables for human motion analysis, since they are tools for easy access and portability for clinical use. The aim of this study was to describe and analyze the kinematics characteristics using the inertial sensor incorporated in the iPhone 4S, the lower limbs strength through a manual dynamometer, and the jump variables obtained with a contact mat in the squat jump and countermovement jump tests (fly time and jump height) from a cohort of healthy people. A cross sectional study was conducted on a population of healthy young adults. Twenty-seven participants performed three trials (n=81 jumps) of squat jump and countermovement jump tests. Acceleration variables were measured through a smartphone's inertial sensor. Additionally, jump variables from a contact mat and lower limbs dynamometry were collected. In the present study, the kinematic variables derived from acceleration through the inertial sensor of a smartphone iPhone 4S, dynamometry of lower limbs with a handheld dynamometer, and the height and flight time with a contact mat have been described in vertical jump tests from a cohort of young healthy subjects. The development of the execution has been described, examined and identified in a squat jump test and countermovement jump test under acceleration variables that were obtained with the smartphone. The built-in iPhone 4S inertial sensor is able to measure acceleration variables while performing vertical jump tests for the squat jump and countermovement jump in healthy young adults. The acceleration

Birth-jump processes and application to forest fire spotting.

Science.gov (United States)

Hillen, T; Greese, B; Martin, J; de Vries, G

2015-01-01

Birth-jump models are designed to describe population models for which growth and spatial spread cannot be decoupled. A birth-jump model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation. We present two different derivations of this equation, one based on a random walk approach and the other based on a two-compartmental reaction-diffusion model. In the case that the redistribution kernels are highly concentrated, we show that the integro-differential equation can be approximated by a reaction-diffusion equation, in which the proliferation rate contributes to both the diffusion term and the reaction term. We completely solve the corresponding critical domain size problem and the minimal wave speed problem. Birth-jump models can be applied in many areas in mathematical biology. We highlight an application of our results in the context of forest fire spread through spotting. We show that spotting increases the invasion speed of a forest fire front.

Levy-Student processes for a stochastic model of beam halos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petroni, N. Cufaro [Department of Mathematics, University of Bari, and INFN Sezione di Bari, via E. Orabona 4, 70125 Bari (Italy)]. E-mail: cufaro@ba.infn.it; De Martino, S. [Department of Physics, University of Salerno, and INFN Sezione di Napoli (gruppo di Salerno), Via S. Allende, I-84081 Baronissi (SA) (Italy); De Siena, S. [Department of Physics, University of Salerno, and INFN Sezione di Napoli (gruppo di Salerno), Via S. Allende, I-84081 Baronissi (SA) (Italy); Illuminati, F. [Department of Physics, University of Salerno, and INFN Sezione di Napoli (gruppo di Salerno), Via S. Allende, I-84081 Baronissi (SA) (Italy)

2006-06-01

We describe the transverse beam distribution in particle accelerators within the controlled, stochastic dynamical scheme of the stochastic mechanics which produces time reversal invariant diffusion processes. In this paper we analyze the consequences of introducing the generalized Student laws, namely non-Gaussian, Levy infinitely divisible (but not stable) distributions. We will analyze this idea from two different standpoints: (a) first by supposing that the stationary distribution of our (Wiener powered) stochastic model is a Student distribution; (b) by supposing that our model is based on a (non-Gaussian) Levy process whose increments are Student distributed. In the case (a) the longer tails of the power decay of the Student laws, and in the case (b) the discontinuities of the Levy-Student process can well account for the rare escape of particles from the beam core, and hence for the formation of a halo in intense beams.

Levy-Student processes for a stochastic model of beam halos

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petroni, N. Cufaro; De Martino, S.; De Siena, S.; Illuminati, F.

2006-01-01

We describe the transverse beam distribution in particle accelerators within the controlled, stochastic dynamical scheme of the stochastic mechanics which produces time reversal invariant diffusion processes. In this paper we analyze the consequences of introducing the generalized Student laws, namely non-Gaussian, Levy infinitely divisible (but not stable) distributions. We will analyze this idea from two different standpoints: (a) first by supposing that the stationary distribution of our (Wiener powered) stochastic model is a Student distribution; (b) by supposing that our model is based on a (non-Gaussian) Levy process whose increments are Student distributed. In the case (a) the longer tails of the power decay of the Student laws, and in the case (b) the discontinuities of the Levy-Student process can well account for the rare escape of particles from the beam core, and hence for the formation of a halo in intense beams

Expectation propagation for continuous time stochastic processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cseke, Botond; Schnoerr, David; Sanguinetti, Guido; Opper, Manfred

2016-01-01

We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajectories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive approximations to the posterior distributions of single time marginals using variational approximate inference, giving rise to an expectation propagation type algorithm. For non-linear diffusion processes, this is achieved by leveraging moment closure approximations. We then show how the approximation can be extended to a wide class of discrete-state Markov jump processes by making use of the chemical Langevin equation. Our empirical results show that the proposed method is computationally efficient and provides good approximations for these classes of inverse problems. (paper)

Quantization by stochastic relaxation processes and supersymmetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirschner, R.

1984-01-01

We show the supersymmetry mechanism resposible for the quantization by stochastic relaxation processes and for the effective cancellation of the additional time dimension against the two Grassmann dimensions. We give a non-perturbative proof of the validity of this quantization procedure. (author)

Pressure Jumps during Drainage in Macroporous Soils

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soto, Diego; Paradelo Pérez, Marcos; Corral, A

2018-01-01

Tensiometer readings obtained at high resolution during drainage of structured soil columns revealed pressure jumps with long range correlations and burst sequences with a hierarchical structure. The statistical properties of jumps are similar to Haines jumps described in invasion percolation...... processes at pore scale, but they are much larger in amplitude and duration. Pressure jumps can result from transient redistribution of water potential in internal regions of soil and can be triggered during drainage by capillary displacements at the scale of structural pores....

ARMA modeling of stochastic processes in nuclear reactor with significant detection noise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zavaljevski, N.

1992-01-01

The theoretical basis of ARMA modelling of stochastic processes in nuclear reactor was presented in a previous paper, neglecting observational noise. The identification of real reactor data indicated that in some experiments the detection noise is significant. Thus a more rigorous theoretical modelling of stochastic processes in nuclear reactor is performed. Starting from the fundamental stochastic differential equations of the Langevin type for the interaction of the detector with neutron field, a new theoretical ARMA model is developed. preliminary identification results confirm the theoretical expectations. (author)

Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

2018-03-01

Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.

Multilevel Approximations of Markovian Jump Processes with Applications in Communication Networks

KAUST Repository

Vilanova, Pedro

2015-05-04

This thesis focuses on the development and analysis of efficient simulation and inference techniques for Markovian pure jump processes with a view towards applications in dense communication networks. These techniques are especially relevant for modeling networks of smart devices —tiny, abundant microprocessors with integrated sensors and wireless communication abilities— that form highly complex and diverse communication networks. During 2010, the number of devices connected to the Internet exceeded the number of people on Earth: over 12.5 billion devices. By 2015, Cisco’s Internet Business Solutions Group predicts that this number will exceed 25 billion. The first part of this work proposes novel numerical methods to estimate, in an efficient and accurate way, observables from realizations of Markovian jump processes. In particular, hybrid Monte Carlo type methods are developed that combine the exact and approximate simulation algorithms to exploit their respective advantages. These methods are tailored to keep a global computational error below a prescribed global error tolerance and within a given statistical confidence level. Indeed, the computational work of these methods is similar to the one of an exact method, but with a smaller constant. Finally, the methods are extended to systems with a disparity of time scales. The second part develops novel inference methods to estimate the parameters of Markovian pure jump process. First, an indirect inference approach is presented, which is based on upscaled representations and does not require sampling. This method is simpler than dealing directly with the likelihood of the process, which, in general, cannot be expressed in closed form and whose maximization requires computationally intensive sampling techniques. Second, a forward-reverse Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm is provided to approximate a local maximum or saddle point of the likelihood function of the parameters given a set of

A Discrete-Time Model for Daily S&P500 Returns and Realized Variations: Jumps and Leverage Effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Kretschmer, Uta; Pigorsch, Christian

We develop an empirically highly accurate discrete-time daily stochastic volatility model that explicitly distinguishes between the jump and continuoustime components of price movements using nonparametric realized variation and Bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency intraday...... dependencies inherent in the high-frequency intraday data....

Probability of stochastic processes and spacetime geometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Canessa, E.

2007-01-01

We made a first attempt to associate a probabilistic description of stochastic processes like birth-death processes with spacetime geometry in the Schwarzschild metrics on distance scales from the macro- to the micro-domains. We idealize an ergodic system in which system states communicate through a curved path composed of transition arrows where each arrow corresponds to a positive, analogous birth or death rate. (author)

Analysis of model implied volatility for jump diffusion models: Empirical evidence from the Nordpool market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos K.; Soldatos, Orestes A.

2010-01-01

In this paper we examine the importance of mean reversion and spikes in the stochastic behaviour of the underlying asset when pricing options on power. We propose a model that is flexible in its formulation and captures the stylized features of power prices in a parsimonious way. The main feature of the model is that it incorporates two different speeds of mean reversion to capture the differences in price behaviour between normal and spiky periods. We derive semi-closed form solutions for European option prices using transform analysis and then examine the properties of the implied volatilities that the model generates. We find that the presence of jumps generates prominent volatility skews which depend on the sign of the mean jump size. We also show that mean reversion reduces the volatility smile as time to maturity increases. In addition, mean reversion induces volatility skews particularly for ITM options, even in the absence of jumps. Finally, jump size volatility and jump intensity mainly affect the kurtosis and thus the curvature of the smile with the former having a more important role in making the volatility smile more pronounced and thus increasing the kurtosis of the underlying price distribution.

Birth of a hydraulic jump

Science.gov (United States)

Duchesne, Alexis; Bohr, Tomas; Andersen, Anders

2017-11-01

The hydraulic jump, i.e., the sharp transition between a supercritical and a subcritical free-surface flow, has been extensively studied in the past centuries. However, ever since Leonardo da Vinci asked it for the first time, an important question has been left unanswered: How does a hydraulic jump form? We present an experimental and theoretical study of the formation of stationary hydraulic jumps in centimeter wide channels. Two starting situations are considered: The channel is, respectively, empty or filled with liquid, the liquid level being fixed by the wetting properties and the boundary conditions. We then change the flow-rate abruptly from zero to a constant value. In an empty channel, we observe the formation of a stationary hydraulic jump in a two-stage process: First, the channel fills by the advancing liquid front, which undergoes a transition from supercritical to subcritical at some position in the channel. Later the influence of the downstream boundary conditions makes the jump move slowly upstream to its final position. In the pre-filled channel, the hydraulic jump forms at the injector edge and then moves downstream to its final position.

Reliability Analysis Based on a Jump Diffusion Model with Two Wiener Processes for Cloud Computing with Big Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoshinobu Tamura

2015-06-01

Full Text Available At present, many cloud services are managed by using open source software, such as OpenStack and Eucalyptus, because of the unification management of data, cost reduction, quick delivery and work savings. The operation phase of cloud computing has a unique feature, such as the provisioning processes, the network-based operation and the diversity of data, because the operation phase of cloud computing changes depending on many external factors. We propose a jump diffusion model with two-dimensional Wiener processes in order to consider the interesting aspects of the network traffic and big data on cloud computing. In particular, we assess the stability of cloud software by using the sample paths obtained from the jump diffusion model with two-dimensional Wiener processes. Moreover, we discuss the optimal maintenance problem based on the proposed jump diffusion model. Furthermore, we analyze actual data to show numerical examples of dependability optimization based on the software maintenance cost considering big data on cloud computing.

Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance

Science.gov (United States)

Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S.

2018-03-01

A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band.

Option Valuation with Observable Volatility and Jump Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Feunoua, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity...... dynamics. The volatility and jump intensity dynamics in the model are directly driven by model-free empirical measures of diffusive volatility and jump variation. Because the empirical measures are observed in discrete intervals, our option valuation model is cast in discrete time, allowing...

Option Valuation with Observable Volatility and Jump Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Feunoua, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

2015-01-01

Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity...... dynamics. The volatility and jump intensity dynamics in the model are directly driven by model-free empirical measures of diffusive volatility and jump variation. Because the empirical measures are observed in discrete intervals, our option valuation model is cast in discrete time, allowing...

XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes

CERN Document Server

Pardo, Juan; Rivero, Víctor; Bravo, Gerónimo

2015-01-01

This volume features lecture notes and a collection of contributed articles from the XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes, held at CIMAT Mexico in September 2013. Since the symposium was part of the activities organized in Mexico to celebrate the International Year of Statistics, the program included topics from the interface between statistics and stochastic processes. The book starts with notes from the mini-course given by Louigi Addario-Berry with an accessible description of some features of the multiplicative coalescent and its connection with random graphs and minimum spanning trees. It includes a number of exercises and a section on unanswered questions. Further contributions provide the reader with a broad perspective on the state-of-the art of active areas of research. Contributions by: Louigi Addario-Berry Octavio Arizmendi Fabrice Baudoin Jochen Blath Loïc Chaumont J. Armando Domínguez-Molina Bjarki Eldon Shui Feng Tulio Gaxiola Adrián González Casanova Evgueni Gordienko Daniel...

Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

CERN Document Server

Olofsson, Peter

2012-01-01

This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

Stochastic processes and filtering theory

CERN Document Server

Jazwinski, Andrew H

1970-01-01

This unified treatment of linear and nonlinear filtering theory presents material previously available only in journals, and in terms accessible to engineering students. Its sole prerequisites are advanced calculus, the theory of ordinary differential equations, and matrix analysis. Although theory is emphasized, the text discusses numerous practical applications as well.Taking the state-space approach to filtering, this text models dynamical systems by finite-dimensional Markov processes, outputs of stochastic difference, and differential equations. Starting with background material on probab

Finite-Time Nonfragile Synchronization of Stochastic Complex Dynamical Networks with Semi-Markov Switching Outer Coupling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rathinasamy Sakthivel

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of robust nonfragile synchronization is investigated in this paper for a class of complex dynamical networks subject to semi-Markov jumping outer coupling, time-varying coupling delay, randomly occurring gain variation, and stochastic noise over a desired finite-time interval. In particular, the network topology is assumed to follow a semi-Markov process such that it may switch from one to another at different instants. In this paper, the random gain variation is represented by a stochastic variable that is assumed to satisfy the Bernoulli distribution with white sequences. Based on these hypotheses and the Lyapunov-Krasovskii stability theory, a new finite-time stochastic synchronization criterion is established for the considered network in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Moreover, the control design parameters that guarantee the required criterion are computed by solving a set of linear matrix inequality constraints. An illustrative example is finally given to show the effectiveness and advantages of the developed analytical results.

Jumping together

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Ole; Ravn, Susanne; Christensen, Mette Krogh

2014-01-01

, in order to reach a deeper understanding of how practice facilitates learning. Results: We encircle the athletes’ interrelated learning processes by introducing the training environment of the national team and situations in which the athletes guide each other verbally or by jumping together. Discussion...

A space-jump derivation for non-local models of cell-cell adhesion and non-local chemotaxis.

Science.gov (United States)

Buttenschön, Andreas; Hillen, Thomas; Gerisch, Alf; Painter, Kevin J

2018-01-01

Cellular adhesion provides one of the fundamental forms of biological interaction between cells and their surroundings, yet the continuum modelling of cellular adhesion has remained mathematically challenging. In 2006, Armstrong et al. proposed a mathematical model in the form of an integro-partial differential equation. Although successful in applications, a derivation from an underlying stochastic random walk has remained elusive. In this work we develop a framework by which non-local models can be derived from a space-jump process. We show how the notions of motility and a cell polarization vector can be naturally included. With this derivation we are able to include microscopic biological properties into the model. We show that particular choices yield the original Armstrong model, while others lead to more general models, including a doubly non-local adhesion model and non-local chemotaxis models. Finally, we use random walk simulations to confirm that the corresponding continuum model represents the mean field behaviour of the stochastic random walk.

Choice of jumping strategy in two standard jumps, squat and countermovement jump--effect of training background or inherited preference?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravn, Susanne; Voigt, M; Simonsen, Erik Bruun

1999-01-01

. The jumps were recorded on highspeed film (500 Hz) combined with registration of ground reaction forces, and net joint moments were calculated by inverse dynamics. The purpose was to investigate the choice of strategy in two standard jumps, squat jump and countermovement jump. The volleyball jump...... was performed with a sequential strategy and the ballet jump was performed with a simultaneous strategy. In the two standard jumps, the choice of strategy was individual and not related to training background. This was additionally confirmed in a test of seven ballet dancers and seven volleyball players....

Learning Theory Estimates with Observations from General Stationary Stochastic Processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Hang, Hanyuan; Feng, Yunlong; Steinwart, Ingo; Suykens, Johan A K

2016-12-01

This letter investigates the supervised learning problem with observations drawn from certain general stationary stochastic processes. Here by general, we mean that many stationary stochastic processes can be included. We show that when the stochastic processes satisfy a generalized Bernstein-type inequality, a unified treatment on analyzing the learning schemes with various mixing processes can be conducted and a sharp oracle inequality for generic regularized empirical risk minimization schemes can be established. The obtained oracle inequality is then applied to derive convergence rates for several learning schemes such as empirical risk minimization (ERM), least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) using given generic kernels, and SVMs using gaussian kernels for both least squares and quantile regression. It turns out that for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) processes, our learning rates for ERM recover the optimal rates. For non-i.i.d. processes, including geometrically [Formula: see text]-mixing Markov processes, geometrically [Formula: see text]-mixing processes with restricted decay, [Formula: see text]-mixing processes, and (time-reversed) geometrically [Formula: see text]-mixing processes, our learning rates for SVMs with gaussian kernels match, up to some arbitrarily small extra term in the exponent, the optimal rates. For the remaining cases, our rates are at least close to the optimal rates. As a by-product, the assumed generalized Bernstein-type inequality also provides an interpretation of the so-called effective number of observations for various mixing processes.

Contribution to the stochastically studies of space-time dependable hydrological processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kjaevski, Ivancho

2002-12-01

One of the fundaments of today's planning and water economy is Science of Hydrology. Science of Hydrology through the history had followed the development of the water management systems. Water management systems, during the time from single-approach evolved to complex and multi purpose systems. The dynamic and development of the today's society contributed for increasing the demand of clean water, and in the same time, the resources of clean water in the nature are reduced. In this kind of conditions, water management systems should resolve problems that are more complicated during managing of water sources. Solving the problems in water management, enable development and applying new methods and technologies in planning and management with water resources and water management systems like: systematical analyses, operational research, hierarchy decisions, expert systems, computer technology etc. Planning and management of water sources needs historical measured data for hydro metrological processes. In our country there are data of hydro metrological processes in period of 50-70, but in some Europe countries there are data more than 100 years. Water economy trends follow the hydro metrological trend research. The basic statistic techniques like sampling, probability distribution function, correlation and regression, are used about one intended and simple water management problems. Solving new problems about water management needs using of space-time stochastic technique, modem mathematical and statistical techniques during simulation and optimization of complex water systems. We need tree phases of development of the techniques to get secure hydrological models: i) Estimate the quality of hydro meteorological data, analyzing of their consistency, and homogeneous; ii) Structural analyze of hydro meteorological processes; iii) Mathematical models for modeling hydro meteorological processes. Very often, the third phase is applied for analyzing and modeling of hydro

Stochastic light-cone CTMRG: a new DMRG approach to stochastic models 02.50.Ey Stochastic processes; 64.60.Ht Dynamic critical phenomena; 02.70.-c Computational techniques; 05.10.Cc Renormalization group methods;

CERN Document Server

Kemper, A; Nishino, T; Schadschneider, A; Zittartz, J

2003-01-01

We develop a new variant of the recently introduced stochastic transfer matrix DMRG which we call stochastic light-cone corner-transfer-matrix DMRG (LCTMRG). It is a numerical method to compute dynamic properties of one-dimensional stochastic processes. As suggested by its name, the LCTMRG is a modification of the corner-transfer-matrix DMRG, adjusted by an additional causality argument. As an example, two reaction-diffusion models, the diffusion-annihilation process and the branch-fusion process are studied and compared with exact data and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the capability and accuracy of the new method. The number of possible Trotter steps of more than 10 sup 5 shows a considerable improvement on the old stochastic TMRG algorithm.

Comments on the use of stochastic processes in the field of the ionizing radiations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez Romero, Jose T.

2008-01-01

Stochastic process is the name given to a time dependent random process, unfortunately, its time dependence is not always clearly emphasized. In fact, such dependence is not unequivocally stated in the different disciplines of radiation physics, radiobiology or in radiation protection. This is the cause of some conceptual confusion when interpreting relationships between quantities is analyzed, e.g.: imparted energy vs. absorbed dose, stochastic vs. deterministic biological effects; or in radiation protection models, whether: linear or quadratic, relative or absolute. Most of these relationships are associated to stochastic phenomena, and they carry a time dependence that requires clarification. To mention some examples, in radiation physics: the absorbed dose is a non stochastic quantity resulting from averaging a stochastic one namely, the imparted energy, over a representative ensemble via an operation analogous to the Gibbs-Einstein algorithm. On the other hand stochastic quantities require specialized mathematical techniques of stochastic processes to handle them. These refinements are unfortunately ignored in the reports of ICRU 33 and 60. Essentially, a problem to be solved is to establish a clear relationship between micro or mesoscopic stochastic quantities and their macroscopic counterparts, these latter ones possibly being time dependent or not. This is the main objective of microdosimetry. Another problem is to describe phenomena such as electronic equilibrium which is nothing else than a stationary state thus exhibiting no time dependence. Still a different question is the interpretation of radioactive decay as a stochastic process of the Poisson and Markov type. In radiobiology a basic problem is the study of biological stochastic phenomena is to determine the characteristics and structure of those time dependent probabilistic functions allowing the quantification of macroscopic biological manifestations, such as carcinogenesis or genetic effects

Piecewise deterministic processes in biological models

CERN Document Server

Rudnicki, Ryszard

2017-01-01

This book presents a concise introduction to piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), with particular emphasis on their applications to biological models. Further, it presents examples of biological phenomena, such as gene activity and population growth, where different types of PDMPs appear: continuous time Markov chains, deterministic processes with jumps, processes with switching dynamics, and point processes. Subsequent chapters present the necessary tools from the theory of stochastic processes and semigroups of linear operators, as well as theoretical results concerning the long-time behaviour of stochastic semigroups induced by PDMPs and their applications to biological models. As such, the book offers a valuable resource for mathematicians and biologists alike. The first group will find new biological models that lead to interesting and often new mathematical questions, while the second can observe how to include seemingly disparate biological processes into a unified mathematical theory, and...

Stochastic processes, multiscale modeling, and numerical methods for computational cellular biology

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

This book focuses on the modeling and mathematical analysis of stochastic dynamical systems along with their simulations. The collected chapters will review fundamental and current topics and approaches to dynamical systems in cellular biology. This text aims to develop improved mathematical and computational methods with which to study biological processes. At the scale of a single cell, stochasticity becomes important due to low copy numbers of biological molecules, such as mRNA and proteins that take part in biochemical reactions driving cellular processes. When trying to describe such biological processes, the traditional deterministic models are often inadequate, precisely because of these low copy numbers. This book presents stochastic models, which are necessary to account for small particle numbers and extrinsic noise sources. The complexity of these models depend upon whether the biochemical reactions are diffusion-limited or reaction-limited. In the former case, one needs to adopt the framework of s...

Jumping Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sannino, Francesco

2013-01-01

paradigm the physical scale and henceforth also the massive spectrum of the theory jump at the lower boundary of the conformal window. In particular we propose that a theory can suddenly jump from a Quantum Chromodynamics type spectrum, at the lower boundary of the conformal window, to a conformal one...... without particle interpretation. The jumping scenario, therefore, does not support a near-conformal dynamics of walking type. We will also discuss the impact of jumping dynamics on the construction of models of dynamical electroweak symmetry breaking....

Extinction and persistence of a stochastic nonlinear SIS epidemic model with jumps

Science.gov (United States)

Ge, Qing; Ji, Guilin; Xu, Jiabo; Fan, Xiaolin

2016-11-01

In this paper, Brownian motion and L e ´ vy jumps are introduced to a SIS type epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate. The dynamical behavior of the considered model is investigated. In order to reveal the extinction and permanence of the disease, two threshold values R˜0 ,R¯0 are showed. We find that if R˜0 1, the disease may be persistent. Finally, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our mathematical results.

Susceptibility of optimal train schedules to stochastic disturbances of process times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Rune; Pranzo, Marco; D’Ariano, Andrea

2013-01-01

study, an advanced branch and bound algorithm, on average, outperforms a First In First Out scheduling rule both in deterministic and stochastic traffic scenarios. However, the characteristic of the stochastic processes and the way a stochastic instance is handled turn out to have a serious impact...... and dwell times). In fact, the objective of railway traffic management is to reduce delay propagation and to increase disturbance robustness of train schedules at a network scale. We present a quantitative study of traffic disturbances and their effects on the schedules computed by simple and advanced...

Backward jump continuous-time random walk: An application to market trading

Science.gov (United States)

Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard

2010-10-01

The backward jump modification of the continuous-time random walk model or the version of the model driven by the negative feedback was herein derived for spatiotemporal continuum in the context of a share price evolution on a stock exchange. In the frame of the model, we described stochastic evolution of a typical share price on a stock exchange with a moderate liquidity within a high-frequency time scale. The model was validated by satisfactory agreement of the theoretical velocity autocorrelation function with its empirical counterpart obtained for the continuous quotation. This agreement is mainly a result of a sharp backward correlation found and considered in this article. This correlation is a reminiscence of such a bid-ask bounce phenomenon where backward price jump has the same or almost the same length as preceding jump. We suggested that this correlation dominated the dynamics of the stock market with moderate liquidity. Although assumptions of the model were inspired by the market high-frequency empirical data, its potential applications extend beyond the financial market, for instance, to the field covered by the Le Chatelier-Braun principle of contrariness.

Learning stochastic reward distributions in a speeded pointing task.

Science.gov (United States)

Seydell, Anna; McCann, Brian C; Trommershäuser, Julia; Knill, David C

2008-04-23

Recent studies have shown that humans effectively take into account task variance caused by intrinsic motor noise when planning fast hand movements. However, previous evidence suggests that humans have greater difficulty accounting for arbitrary forms of stochasticity in their environment, both in economic decision making and sensorimotor tasks. We hypothesized that humans can learn to optimize movement strategies when environmental randomness can be experienced and thus implicitly learned over several trials, especially if it mimics the kinds of randomness for which subjects might have generative models. We tested the hypothesis using a task in which subjects had to rapidly point at a target region partly covered by three stochastic penalty regions introduced as "defenders." At movement completion, each defender jumped to a new position drawn randomly from fixed probability distributions. Subjects earned points when they hit the target, unblocked by a defender, and lost points otherwise. Results indicate that after approximately 600 trials, subjects approached optimal behavior. We further tested whether subjects simply learned a set of stimulus-contingent motor plans or the statistics of defenders' movements by training subjects with one penalty distribution and then testing them on a new penalty distribution. Subjects immediately changed their strategy to achieve the same average reward as subjects who had trained with the second penalty distribution. These results indicate that subjects learned the parameters of the defenders' jump distributions and used this knowledge to optimally plan their hand movements under conditions involving stochastic rewards and penalties.

Drop Jumping as a Training Method for Jumping Ability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bobbert, Maarten F.

1990-01-01

Vertical jumping ability is of importance for good performance in sports such as basketball and volleyball. Coaches are in need of exercises that consume only little time and still help to improve their players’ jumping ability, without involving a high risk of injury. Drop jumping is assumed to

Outcome and Process in Motor Performance: A Comparison of Jumping by Typically Developing Children and Those with Low Motor Proficiency

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Morgan D.; Saunders, John E.; Maschette, Wayne E.; Wilson, Cameron J.

2013-01-01

The motivation for this study was to explore a conceptual framework to understand the outcomes and processes of motor performance in children. Vertical jumping, a fundamental movement skill, was used to compare children (ages 6-12 years) who were typically developing (TD) and those identified as having low motor proficiency (LMP). Jumps were…

STABILITY OF LINEAR SYSTEMS WITH MARKOVIAN JUMPS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Enrique Mayta Guillermo

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In this work we will analyze the stability of linear systems governed by a Markov chain, this family is known in the specialized literature as linear systems with Markov jumps or by its acronyms in English MJLS as it is denoted in [1]. Linear systems governed by a Markov chain are dynamic systems with abrupt changes. We give some denitions of stability for the MJLS system, where these types of stability are equivalent as long as the state space of the Markov chain is nite. Finally we present a theorem that characterizes the stochastic stability by means of an equation of the Lyapunov type. The result is a generalization of a theorem in classical theory.

Tests for nonrandomness in quantum jumps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berkeland, D.J.; Raymondson, D.A.; Tassin, V.M.

2004-01-01

In a fundamental test of quantum mechanics, we have observed 228 000 quantum jumps of a single trapped and laser cooled 88 Sr + ion. This represents a statistical increase of two orders of magnitude over previous similar analyses of quantum jumps. Compared to other searches for nonrandomness in quantum-mechanical processes, using quantum jumps simplifies the interpretation of data by eliminated multiparticle effects and providing near-unit detection efficiency of transitions. We measure the fractional reduction in the entropy of information to be -4 when the value of any interval between quantum jumps is known. We also find that the number of runs of successively increasing or decreasing interval times agrees with the theoretically expected values. Furthermore, we analyze 238 000 quantum jumps from two simultaneously confined ions and find that the number of apparently coincidental transitions is as expected. Finally, we observe 8400 spontaneous decays of two simultaneously trapped ions and find that the number of apparently coincidental decays from the metastable state agrees with the expected value. We find no evidence for short- or long-term correlations in the intervals of the quantum jumps or in the decay of the quantum states, in agreement with quantum theory

Continuous strong Markov processes in dimension one a stochastic calculus approach

CERN Document Server

Assing, Sigurd

1998-01-01

The book presents an in-depth study of arbitrary one-dimensional continuous strong Markov processes using methods of stochastic calculus. Departing from the classical approaches, a unified investigation of regular as well as arbitrary non-regular diffusions is provided. A general construction method for such processes, based on a generalization of the concept of a perfect additive functional, is developed. The intrinsic decomposition of a continuous strong Markov semimartingale is discovered. The book also investigates relations to stochastic differential equations and fundamental examples of irregular diffusions.

Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes with identical spectral density but different probability density functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Youming; Zheng, Fan

2016-12-01

Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes, with identical spectral density but different probability density functions (PDFs), is investigated in selected lightly damped Hamiltonian systems. The threshold amplitude of diffusion processes for the onset of chaos is derived by using the stochastic Melnikov method together with a mean-square criterion. Two quasi-Hamiltonian systems, namely, a damped single pendulum and damped Duffing oscillator perturbed by stochastic excitations, are used as illustrative examples. Four different cases of stochastic processes are taking as the driving excitations. It is shown that in such two systems the spectral density of diffusion processes completely determines the threshold amplitude for chaos, regardless of the shape of their PDFs, Gaussian or otherwise. Furthermore, the mean top Lyapunov exponent is employed to verify analytical results. The results obtained by numerical simulations are in accordance with the analytical results. This demonstrates that the stochastic Melnikov method is effective in predicting the onset of chaos in the quasi-Hamiltonian systems.

Conditional Stochastic Processes Applied to Wave Load Predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

2015-01-01

The concept of conditional stochastic processes provides a powerful tool for evaluation and estimation of wave loads on ships and offshore structures. This article first considers conditional waves with a focus on critical wave episodes. Then the inherent uncertainty in the results is illustrated...

Stochastic Processes in Finance and Behavioral Finance

OpenAIRE

Steinbacher, Matjaz

2008-01-01

In the paper, we put some foundations for studying asset pricing and finance as a stochastic and behavioral process. In such process, preferences and psychology of agents represent the most important factor in the decision-making of people. Individuals have their own ways of acquiring the information they need, how to deal with them and how to make predictions and decisions. People usually also do not behave consistent in time, but learn. Therefore, in order to understand the behavior on the ...

5th Seminar on Stochastic Processes, Random Fields and Applications

CERN Document Server

Russo, Francesco; Dozzi, Marco

2008-01-01

This volume contains twenty-eight refereed research or review papers presented at the 5th Seminar on Stochastic Processes, Random Fields and Applications, which took place at the Centro Stefano Franscini (Monte Verità) in Ascona, Switzerland, from May 30 to June 3, 2005. The seminar focused mainly on stochastic partial differential equations, random dynamical systems, infinite-dimensional analysis, approximation problems, and financial engineering. The book will be a valuable resource for researchers in stochastic analysis and professionals interested in stochastic methods in finance. Contributors: Y. Asai, J.-P. Aubin, C. Becker, M. Benaïm, H. Bessaih, S. Biagini, S. Bonaccorsi, N. Bouleau, N. Champagnat, G. Da Prato, R. Ferrière, F. Flandoli, P. Guasoni, V.B. Hallulli, D. Khoshnevisan, T. Komorowski, R. Léandre, P. Lescot, H. Lisei, J.A. López-Mimbela, V. Mandrekar, S. Méléard, A. Millet, H. Nagai, A.D. Neate, V. Orlovius, M. Pratelli, N. Privault, O. Raimond, M. Röckner, B. Rüdiger, W.J. Runggaldi...

Exact many-body dynamics with stochastic one-body density matrix evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lacroix, D.

2004-05-01

In this article, we discuss some properties of the exact treatment of the many-body problem with stochastic Schroedinger equation (SSE). Starting from the SSE theory, an equivalent reformulation is proposed in terms of quantum jumps in the density matrix space. The technical details of the derivation a stochastic version of the Liouville von Neumann equation are given. It is shown that the exact Many-Body problem could be replaced by an ensemble of one-body density evolution, where each density matrix evolves according to its own mean-field augmented by a one-body noise. (author)

Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race.

Science.gov (United States)

Warnke, Tom; Reinhardt, Oliver; Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

2017-10-01

Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions.

Doubly stochastic Poisson process models for precipitation at fine time-scales

Science.gov (United States)

Ramesh, Nadarajah I.; Onof, Christian; Xie, Dichao

2012-09-01

This paper considers a class of stochastic point process models, based on doubly stochastic Poisson processes, in the modelling of rainfall. We examine the application of this class of models, a neglected alternative to the widely-known Poisson cluster models, in the analysis of fine time-scale rainfall intensity. These models are mainly used to analyse tipping-bucket raingauge data from a single site but an extension to multiple sites is illustrated which reveals the potential of this class of models to study the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation at fine time-scales.

Entropy Measures for Stochastic Processes with Applications in Functional Anomaly Detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Martos

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a definition of entropy for stochastic processes. We provide a reproducing kernel Hilbert space model to estimate entropy from a random sample of realizations of a stochastic process, namely functional data, and introduce two approaches to estimate minimum entropy sets. These sets are relevant to detect anomalous or outlier functional data. A numerical experiment illustrates the performance of the proposed method; in addition, we conduct an analysis of mortality rate curves as an interesting application in a real-data context to explore functional anomaly detection.

Counting statistics of non-markovian quantum stochastic processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flindt, Christian; Novotny, T.; Braggio, A.

2008-01-01

We derive a general expression for the cumulant generating function (CGF) of non-Markovian quantum stochastic transport processes. The long-time limit of the CGF is determined by a single dominating pole of the resolvent of the memory kernel from which we extract the zero-frequency cumulants...

Accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo simulation for coagulation dynamics from the Markov jump model, stochastic algorithm and GPU parallel computing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Zuwei; Zhao, Haibo; Zheng, Chuguang

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo (PBMC) simulation of particle coagulation dynamics. By combining Markov jump model, weighted majorant kernel and GPU (graphics processing unit) parallel computing, a significant gain in computational efficiency is achieved. The Markov jump model constructs a coagulation-rule matrix of differentially-weighted simulation particles, so as to capture the time evolution of particle size distribution with low statistical noise over the full size range and as far as possible to reduce the number of time loopings. Here three coagulation rules are highlighted and it is found that constructing appropriate coagulation rule provides a route to attain the compromise between accuracy and cost of PBMC methods. Further, in order to avoid double looping over all simulation particles when considering the two-particle events (typically, particle coagulation), the weighted majorant kernel is introduced to estimate the maximum coagulation rates being used for acceptance–rejection processes by single-looping over all particles, and meanwhile the mean time-step of coagulation event is estimated by summing the coagulation kernels of rejected and accepted particle pairs. The computational load of these fast differentially-weighted PBMC simulations (based on the Markov jump model) is reduced greatly to be proportional to the number of simulation particles in a zero-dimensional system (single cell). Finally, for a spatially inhomogeneous multi-dimensional (multi-cell) simulation, the proposed fast PBMC is performed in each cell, and multiple cells are parallel processed by multi-cores on a GPU that can implement the massively threaded data-parallel tasks to obtain remarkable speedup ratio (comparing with CPU computation, the speedup ratio of GPU parallel computing is as high as 200 in a case of 100 cells with 10 000 simulation particles per cell). These accelerating approaches of PBMC are

Stochastic resonance during a polymer translocation process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mondal, Debasish; Muthukumar, M.

2016-01-01

We have studied the occurrence of stochastic resonance when a flexible polymer chain undergoes a single-file translocation through a nano-pore separating two spherical cavities, under a time-periodic external driving force. The translocation of the chain is controlled by a free energy barrier determined by chain length, pore length, pore-polymer interaction, and confinement inside the donor and receiver cavities. The external driving force is characterized by a frequency and amplitude. By combining the Fokker-Planck formalism for polymer translocation and a two-state model for stochastic resonance, we have derived analytical formulas for criteria for emergence of stochastic resonance during polymer translocation. We show that no stochastic resonance is possible if the free energy barrier for polymer translocation is purely entropic in nature. The polymer chain exhibits stochastic resonance only in the presence of an energy threshold in terms of polymer-pore interactions. Once stochastic resonance is feasible, the chain entropy controls the optimal synchronization conditions significantly.

Jump Detection in the Danish Stock Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høg, Esben

2002-01-01

It is well known in financial economics that stock market return data are often modelled by a diffusion process with some regular drift function. Occasionally, however, sudden changes or jumps occur in the return data. Wavelet scaling methods are used to detect jumps and cusps in stock market...

Introduction to Stochastic Simulations for Chemical and Physical Processes: Principles and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, Charles J.

2017-01-01

An introduction to digital stochastic simulations for modeling a variety of physical and chemical processes is presented. Despite the importance of stochastic simulations in chemistry, the prevalence of turn-key software solutions can impose a layer of abstraction between the user and the underlying approach obscuring the methodology being…

A Correction Equation for Jump Height Measured Using the Just Jump System.

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, John J; Jones, Paul A; Comfort, Paul

2016-05-01

To determine the concurrent validity and reliability of the popular Just Jump system (JJS) for determining jump height and, if necessary, provide a correction equation for future reference. Eighteen male college athletes performed 3 bilateral countermovement jumps (CMJs) on 2 JJSs (alternative method) that were placed on top of a force platform (criterion method). Two JJSs were used to establish consistency between systems. Jump height was calculated from flight time obtained from the JJS and force platform. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) demonstrated excellent within-session reliability of the CMJ height measurement derived from both the JJS (ICC = .96, P jump height (0.46 ± 0.09 m vs 0.33 ± 0.08 m) than the force platform (P jump height = (0.8747 × alternative jump height) - 0.0666. The JJS provides a reliable but overestimated measure of jump height. It is suggested, therefore, that practitioners who use the JJS as part of future work apply the correction equation presented in this study to resultant jump-height values.

A locust-inspired miniature jumping robot.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaitsev, Valentin; Gvirsman, Omer; Ben Hanan, Uri; Weiss, Avi; Ayali, Amir; Kosa, Gabor

2015-11-25

Unmanned ground vehicles are mostly wheeled, tracked, or legged. These locomotion mechanisms have a limited ability to traverse rough terrain and obstacles that are higher than the robot's center of mass. In order to improve the mobility of small robots it is necessary to expand the variety of their motion gaits. Jumping is one of nature's solutions to the challenge of mobility in difficult terrain. The desert locust is the model for the presented bio-inspired design of a jumping mechanism for a small mobile robot. The basic mechanism is similar to that of the semilunar process in the hind legs of the locust, and is based on the cocking of a torsional spring by wrapping a tendon-like wire around the shaft of a miniature motor. In this study we present the jumping mechanism design, and the manufacturing and performance analysis of two demonstrator prototypes. The most advanced jumping robot demonstrator is power autonomous, weighs 23 gr, and is capable of jumping to a height of 3.35 m, covering a distance of 1.37 m.

Stochastic differential equations and diffusion processes

CERN Document Server

Ikeda, N

1989-01-01

Being a systematic treatment of the modern theory of stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations, the theory is developed within the martingale framework, which was developed by J.L. Doob and which plays an indispensable role in the modern theory of stochastic analysis.A considerable number of corrections and improvements have been made for the second edition of this classic work. In particular, major and substantial changes are in Chapter III and Chapter V where the sections treating excursions of Brownian Motion and the Malliavin Calculus have been expanded and refined. Sectio

Verification and Planning for Stochastic Processes with Asynchronous Events

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Younes, Hakan L

2005-01-01

.... The most common assumption is that of history-independence: the Markov assumption. In this thesis, the author considers the problems of verification and planning for stochastic processes with asynchronous events, without relying on the Markov assumption...

Risk, Jumps, and Diversification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Law, Tzuo Hann; Tauchen, George

We test for price discontinuities, or jumps, in a panel of high-frequency intraday returns for forty large-cap stocks and an equiweighted index from these same stocks. Jumps are naturally classified into two types: common and idiosyncratic. Common jumps affect all stocks, albeit to varying degrees......, while idiosyncratic jumps are stock-specific. Despite the fact that each of the stocks has a of about unity with respect to the index, common jumps are virtually never detected in the individual stocks. This is truly puzzling, as an index can jump only if one or more of its components jump. To resolve...... this puzzle, we propose a new test for cojumps. Using this new test we find strong evidence for many modest-sized common jumps that simply pass through the standard jump detection statistic, while they appear highly significant in the cross section based on the new cojump identification scheme. Our results...

Theory and Applications of Weakly Interacting Markov Processes

Science.gov (United States)

2018-02-03

between a node and its neighbor is inversely 3 proportional to the total number of neighbors of that node. Such stochastic systems arise in many different...jumps and models with simultaneous jumps that arise in applications. (1.ii.d) Uniform in Time Interacting Particle Approximations for Nonlinear...problems. (1.iv.a) Diffusion Approximations for Controlled Weakly Interacting Large Finite State Systems with Simultaneous Jumps [25]. We consider a rate

Kinematics and Kinetics of Squats, Drop Jumps and Imitation Jumps of Ski Jumpers

Science.gov (United States)

Pauli, Carole A.; Keller, Melanie; Ammann, Fabian; Hübner, Klaus; Lindorfer, Julia; Taylor, William R.

2016-01-01

Abstract Pauli, CA, Keller, M, Ammann, F, Hübner, K, Lindorfer, J, Taylor, WR, and Lorenzetti, S. Kinematics and kinetics of squats, drop jumps and imitation jumps of ski jumpers. J Strength Cond Res 30(3): 643–652, 2016—Squats, drop jumps, and imitation jumps are commonly used training exercises in ski jumping to enhance maximum force, explosive force, and sport-specific skills. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the kinetics and kinematics of training exercises in ski jumping and to find objective parameters in training exercises that most correlate with the competition performance of ski jumpers. To this end, barbell squats, drop jumps, and imitation jumps were measured in a laboratory environment for 10 elite ski jumpers. Force and motion data were captured, and the influence of maximum vertical force, force difference, vertical take-off velocity, knee moments, knee joint power, and a knee valgus/varus index was evaluated and correlated with their season jump performance. The results indicate that, especially for the imitation jumps, a good correlation exists between the vertical take-off velocity and the personal jump performance on the hill (R = 0.718). Importantly, however, the more the athletes tended toward a valgus knee alignment during the measured movements, the worse their performance (R = 0.729 imitation jumps; R = 0.685 squats). Although an evaluation of the athletes' lower limb alignment during competitive jumping on the hill is still required, these preliminary data suggest that performance training should additionally concentrate on improving knee alignment to increase ski jumping performance. PMID:26418370

Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

Science.gov (United States)

Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

2008-08-01

We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

2008-01-01

We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics

Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lipton, Alex [Merrill Lynch, Mlfc Main, 2 King Edward Street, London EC1A 1HQ (United Kingdom); Sepp, Artur [Merrill Lynch, 4 World Financial Center, New York, NY 10080 (United States)], E-mail: Alex_Lipton@ml.com, E-mail: Artur_Sepp@ml.com

2008-08-29

We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Joshua C.C.; Grant, Angelia L.

2016-01-01

We compare a number of GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models using nine series of oil, petroleum product and natural gas prices in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. The competing models include the standard models of GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, and t distributed and moving average innovations. We find that: (1) SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts; (2) the jump component and t distributed innovations substantially improve the performance of the standard GARCH, but are unimportant for the SV model; (3) the volatility feedback channel seems to be superfluous; (4) the moving average component markedly improves the fit of both GARCH and SV models; and (5) the leverage effect is important for modeling crude oil prices—West Texas Intermediate and Brent—but not for other energy prices. Overall, the SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series. - Highlights: • We compare a variety of GARCH and SV models for fitting nine series of energy prices. • We find that SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts. • The SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series.

Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dobay, M. P. D., E-mail: maria.pamela.david@physik.uni-muenchen.de; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Raedler, J. O., E-mail: joachim.raedler@physik.uni-muenchen.de [Ludwig-Maximilians University, Faculty of Physics, Center for NanoScience (Germany)

2012-03-15

Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.

Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobay, M. P. D.; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Rädler, J. O.

2012-01-01

Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.

Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras

Science.gov (United States)

Dobay, M. P. D.; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Rädler, J. O.

2012-03-01

Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.

Dividend Maximization when Cash Reserves Follow a Jump-diffusion Process

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LI LI-LI; FENG JIN-GHAI; SONG LI-XIN

2009-01-01

This paper deals with the dividend optimization problem for an insur-ance company, whose surplus follows a jump-diffusion process. The objective of the company is to maximize the expected total discounted dividends paid out until the time of ruin. Under concavity assumption on the optimal value function, the paper states some general properties and, in particular, smoothness results on the optimal value function, whose analysis mainly relies on viscosity solutions of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations. Based on these properties, the explicit expression of the optimal value function is obtained. And some numerical calculations are presented as the application of the results.

Why is countermovement jump height greater than squat jump height?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bobbert, Maarten F.; Gerritsen, Karin G M; Litjens, Maria C A; Van Soest, Arthur J.

1996-01-01

In the literature, it is well established that subjects are able to jump higher in a countermovement jump (CMJ) than in a squat jump (SJ). The purpose of this study was to estimate the relative contribution of the time available for force development and the storage and reutilization of elastic

Kinematics and Kinetics of Squats, Drop Jumps and Imitation Jumps of Ski Jumpers.

Science.gov (United States)

Pauli, Carole A; Keller, Melanie; Ammann, Fabian; Hübner, Klaus; Lindorfer, Julia; Taylor, William R; Lorenzetti, Silvio

2016-03-01

Squats, drop jumps, and imitation jumps are commonly used training exercises in ski jumping to enhance maximum force, explosive force, and sport-specific skills. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the kinetics and kinematics of training exercises in ski jumping and to find objective parameters in training exercises that most correlate with the competition performance of ski jumpers. To this end, barbell squats, drop jumps, and imitation jumps were measured in a laboratory environment for 10 elite ski jumpers. Force and motion data were captured, and the influence of maximum vertical force, force difference, vertical take-off velocity, knee moments, knee joint power, and a knee valgus/varus index was evaluated and correlated with their season jump performance. The results indicate that, especially for the imitation jumps, a good correlation exists between the vertical take-off velocity and the personal jump performance on the hill (R = 0.718). Importantly, however, the more the athletes tended toward a valgus knee alignment during the measured movements, the worse their performance (R = 0.729 imitation jumps; R = 0.685 squats). Although an evaluation of the athletes' lower limb alignment during competitive jumping on the hill is still required, these preliminary data suggest that performance training should additionally concentrate on improving knee alignment to increase ski jumping performance.

Analyzing Properties of Stochastic Business Processes By Model Checking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

2013-01-01

This chapter presents an approach to precise formal analysis of business processes with stochastic properties. The method presented here allows for both qualitative and quantitative properties to be individually analyzed at design time without requiring a full specification. This provides...... an effective means to explore possible designs for a business process and to debug any flaws....

Stochastic analysis in production process and ecology under uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Bieda, Bogusław

2014-01-01

The monograph addresses a problem of stochastic analysis based on the uncertainty assessment by simulation and application of this method in ecology and steel industry under uncertainty. The first chapter defines the Monte Carlo (MC) method and random variables in stochastic models. Chapter two deals with the contamination transport in porous media. Stochastic approach for Municipal Solid Waste transit time contaminants modeling using MC simulation has been worked out. The third chapter describes the risk analysis of the waste to energy facility proposal for Konin city, including the financial aspects. Environmental impact assessment of the ArcelorMittal Steel Power Plant, in Kraków - in the chapter four - is given. Thus, four scenarios of the energy mix production processes were studied. Chapter five contains examples of using ecological Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) - a relatively new method of environmental impact assessment - which help in preparing pro-ecological strategy, and which can lead to reducing t...

Discrete stochastic processes and applications

CERN Document Server

Collet, Jean-François

2018-01-01

This unique text for beginning graduate students gives a self-contained introduction to the mathematical properties of stochastics and presents their applications to Markov processes, coding theory, population dynamics, and search engine design. The book is ideal for a newly designed course in an introduction to probability and information theory. Prerequisites include working knowledge of linear algebra, calculus, and probability theory. The first part of the text focuses on the rigorous theory of Markov processes on countable spaces (Markov chains) and provides the basis to developing solid probabilistic intuition without the need for a course in measure theory. The approach taken is gradual beginning with the case of discrete time and moving on to that of continuous time. The second part of this text is more applied; its core introduces various uses of convexity in probability and presents a nice treatment of entropy.

Option Panels in Pure-Jump Settings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor

We develop parametric inference procedures for large panels of noisy option data in the setting where the underlying process is of pure-jump type, i.e., evolve only through a sequence of jumps. The panel consists of options written on the underlying asset with a (different) set of strikes...... specification for the risk-neutral asset return dynamics, the option prices are nonlinear functions of a time-invariant parameter vector and a time-varying latent state vector (or factors). Furthermore, no-arbitrage restrictions impose a direct link between some of the quantities that may be identified from...... the return and option data. These include the so-called jump activity index as well as the time-varying jump intensity. We propose penalized least squares estimation in which we minimize L_2 distance between observed and model-implied options and further penalize for the deviation of model-implied quantities...

Synchronization of stochastic delayed neural networks with markovian switching and its application.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yang; Fang, Jian-An; Miao, Qing-Ying

2009-02-01

In this paper, the problem of adaptive synchronization for a class of stochastic neural networks (SNNs) which involve both mixed delays and Markovian jumping parameters is investigated. The mixed delays comprise the time-varying delays and distributed delays, both of which are mode-dependent. The stochastic perturbations are described in terms of Browian motion. By the adaptive feedback technique, several sufficient criteria have been proposed to ensure the synchronization of SNNs in mean square. Moreover, the proposed adaptive feedback scheme is applied to the secure communication. Finally, the corresponding simulation results are given to demonstrate the usefulness of the main results obtained.

Nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation characteristics of shape memory alloy thin films subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Zhi-Wen; Zhang, Qing-Xin; Xu, Jia

2014-01-01

A kind of shape memory alloy (SMA) hysteretic nonlinear model was developed, and the nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation characteristics of the SMA thin film subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation were investigated. Van der Pol difference item was introduced to describe the hysteretic phenomena of the SMA strain–stress curves, and the nonlinear dynamic model of the SMA thin film subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation was developed. The conditions of global stochastic stability of the system were determined in singular boundary theory, and the probability density function of the system response was obtained. Finally, the conditions of stochastic Hopf bifurcation were analyzed. The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation indicate that self-excited vibration is induced by the hysteretic nonlinear characteristics of SMA, and stochastic Hopf bifurcation appears when the bifurcation parameter was changed; there are two limit cycles in the stationary probability density of the dynamic response of the system in some cases, which means that there are two vibration amplitudes whose probabilities are both very high, and jumping phenomena between the two vibration amplitudes appear with the change in conditions. The results obtained in this current paper are helpful for the application of the SMA thin film in stochastic vibration fields. - Highlights: • Hysteretic nonlinear model of shape memory alloy was developed. • Van der Pol item was introduced to interpret hysteretic strain–stress curves. • Nonlinear dynamic characteristics of the shape memory alloy film were analyzed. • Jumping phenomena were observed in the change of the parameters

Sub-Poissonian statistics of quantum jumps in single molecule or atomic ion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osad'ko, I.S.; Gus'kov, D.N.

2007-01-01

A theory for statistics of quantum jumps in single molecule or ion driven by continues wave laser field is developed. These quantum jumps can relate to nonradiative singlet-triplet transitions in a molecule or to on → off jumps in a single ion with shelving processes. Distribution function w N (T) of quantum jumps in time interval T is found. Computer simulation of quantum jumps is realized. Statistical treatment of simulated jumps reveals sub-Poissonian statistics of quantum jumps. The theoretical distribution function w N (T) fits well the distribution of jumps found from simulated data. Experimental data on quantum jumps found in experiments with single Hg + ion are described by the function w N (T) well

Schrödinger problem, Lévy processes, and noise in relativistic quantum mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Garbaczewski, Piotr; Klauder, John R.; Olkiewicz, Robert

1995-05-01

The main purpose of the paper is an essentially probabilistic analysis of relativistic quantum mechanics. It is based on the assumption that whenever probability distributions arise, there exists a stochastic process that is either responsible for the temporal evolution of a given measure or preserves the measure in the stationary case. Our departure point is the so-called Schrödinger problem of probabilistic evolution, which provides for a unique Markov stochastic interpolation between any given pair of boundary probability densities for a process covering a fixed, finite duration of time, provided we have decided a priori what kind of primordial dynamical semigroup transition mechanism is involved. In the nonrelativistic theory, including quantum mechanics, Feynman-Kac-like kernels are the building blocks for suitable transition probability densities of the process. In the standard ``free'' case (Feynman-Kac potential equal to zero) the familiar Wiener noise is recovered. In the framework of the Schrödinger problem, the ``free noise'' can also be extended to any infinitely divisible probability law, as covered by the Lévy-Khintchine formula. Since the relativistic Hamiltonians ||∇|| and √-Δ+m2 -m are known to generate such laws, we focus on them for the analysis of probabilistic phenomena, which are shown to be associated with the relativistic wave (D'Alembert) and matter-wave (Klein-Gordon) equations, respectively. We show that such stochastic processes exist and are spatial jump processes. In general, in the presence of external potentials, they do not share the Markov property, except for stationary situations. A concrete example of the pseudodifferential Cauchy-Schrödinger evolution is analyzed in detail. The relativistic covariance of related wave equations is exploited to demonstrate how the associated stochastic jump processes comply with the principles of special relativity.

A first course in stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Karlin, Samuel

1975-01-01

The purpose, level, and style of this new edition conform to the tenets set forth in the original preface. The authors continue with their tack of developing simultaneously theory and applications, intertwined so that they refurbish and elucidate each other.The authors have made three main kinds of changes. First, they have enlarged on the topics treated in the first edition. Second, they have added many exercises and problems at the end of each chapter. Third, and most important, they have supplied, in new chapters, broad introductory discussions of several classes of stochastic processe

Option Valuation with Observable Volatility and Jump Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Feunou, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity...... dynamics. The volatility and jump intensity dynamics in the model are directly driven by model-free empirical measures of diffusive volatility and jump variation. Because the empirical measures are observed in discrete intervals, our option valuation model is cast in discrete time, allowing...... for straightforward filtering and estimation of the model. Our model belongs to the affine class enabling us to derive the conditional characteristic function so that option values can be computed rapidly without simulation. When estimated on S&P500 index options and returns the new model performs well compared...

Stochastic differential equation model for linear growth birth and death processes with immigration and emigration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granita; Bahar, A.

2015-01-01

This paper discusses on linear birth and death with immigration and emigration (BIDE) process to stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. Forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with a central-difference approximation was used to find Fokker-Planckequation corresponding to a diffusion process having the stochastic differential equation of BIDE process. The exact solution, mean and variance function of BIDE process was found

Stochastic differential equation model for linear growth birth and death processes with immigration and emigration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. Mathematical Education, State Islamic University of Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, 28293 Indonesia and Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310,Johor (Malaysia); Bahar, A. [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310,Johor Malaysia and UTM Center for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)

2015-03-09

This paper discusses on linear birth and death with immigration and emigration (BIDE) process to stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. Forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with a central-difference approximation was used to find Fokker-Planckequation corresponding to a diffusion process having the stochastic differential equation of BIDE process. The exact solution, mean and variance function of BIDE process was found.

Risk-Sensitive Control of Pure Jump Process on Countable Space with Near Monotone Cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suresh Kumar, K.; Pal, Chandan

2013-01-01

In this article, we study risk-sensitive control problem with controlled continuous time pure jump process on a countable space as state dynamics. We prove multiplicative dynamic programming principle, elliptic and parabolic Harnack’s inequalities. Using the multiplicative dynamic programing principle and the Harnack’s inequalities, we prove the existence and a characterization of optimal risk-sensitive control under the near monotone condition

A Novel Multi-Phase Stochastic Model for Lithium-Ion Batteries’ Degradation with Regeneration Phenomena

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianxun Zhang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available A lithium-Ion battery is a typical degradation product, and its performance will deteriorate over time. In its degradation process, regeneration phenomena have been frequently encountered, which affect both the degradation state and rate. In this paper, we focus on how to build the degradation model and estimate the lifetime. Toward this end, we first propose a multi-phase stochastic degradation model with random jumps based on the Wiener process, where the multi-phase model and random jumps at the changing point are used to describe the variation of degradation rate and state caused by regeneration phenomena accordingly. Owing to the complex structure and random variables, the traditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE is not suitable for the proposed model. In this case, we treat these random variables as latent parameters, and then develop an approach for model identification based on expectation conditional maximum (ECM algorithm. Moreover, depending on the proposed model, how to estimate the lifetime with fixed changing point is presented via the time-space transformation technique, and the approximate analytical solution is derived. Finally, a numerical simulation and a practical case are provided for illustration.

Stochastic Analysis 2010

CERN Document Server

Crisan, Dan

2011-01-01

"Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa

Psychophysiological response in parachute jumps, the effect of experience and type of jump.

Science.gov (United States)

Clemente-Suárez, Vicente Javier; Robles-Pérez, José Juan; Fernández-Lucas, Jesús

2017-10-01

We aimed to analyse the effect of experience and type of parachute jump on the psychophysiological responses of jumpers. We analysed blood oxygen saturation, heart rate, blood glucose, lactate and creatinkinase, leg strength, isometric hand strength, cortical arousal, specific fine motor skills, self-confidence and cognition, and somatic and state anxiety, before and after four different parachute jumps: a sport parachute jump, a manual tactical parachute jump, tandem pilots, and tandem passengers. Independently of the parachute jump, the psychophysiological responses of experienced paratroopers were not affected by the jumps, except for an increase in anaerobic metabolism. Novice parachute jumpers presented a higher psychophysiological stress response than the experienced jumpers, together with a large anticipatory anxiety response before the jump; however, this decreased after the jump, although the high physiological activation was maintained. This information could be used by civil and military paratroopers' instructors to improve their training programmes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

American option pricing with stochastic volatility processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping LI

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In order to solve the problem of option pricing more perfectly, the option pricing problem with Heston stochastic volatility model is considered. The optimal implementation boundary of American option and the conditions for its early execution are analyzed and discussed. In view of the fact that there is no analytical American option pricing formula, through the space discretization parameters, the stochastic partial differential equation satisfied by American options with Heston stochastic volatility is transformed into the corresponding differential equations, and then using high order compact finite difference method, numerical solutions are obtained for the option price. The numerical experiments are carried out to verify the theoretical results and simulation. The two kinds of optimal exercise boundaries under the conditions of the constant volatility and the stochastic volatility are compared, and the results show that the optimal exercise boundary also has stochastic volatility. Under the setting of parameters, the behavior and the nature of volatility are analyzed, the volatility curve is simulated, the calculation results of high order compact difference method are compared, and the numerical option solution is obtained, so that the method is verified. The research result provides reference for solving the problems of option pricing under stochastic volatility such as multiple underlying asset option pricing and barrier option pricing.

A Family of Poisson Processes for Use in Stochastic Models of Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Penland, C.

2013-12-01

Both modified Poisson processes and compound Poisson processes can be relevant to stochastic parameterization of precipitation. This presentation compares the dynamical properties of these systems and discusses the physical situations in which each might be appropriate. If the parameters describing either class of systems originate in hydrodynamics, then proper consideration of stochastic calculus is required during numerical implementation of the parameterization. It is shown here that an improper numerical treatment can have severe implications for estimating rainfall distributions, particularly in the tails of the distributions and, thus, on the frequency of extreme events.

The effect of assisted jumping on vertical jump height in high-performance volleyball players.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheppard, Jeremy M; Dingley, Andrew A; Janssen, Ina; Spratford, Wayne; Chapman, Dale W; Newton, Robert U

2011-01-01

Assisted jumping may be useful in training higher concentric movement speed in jumping, thereby potentially increasing the jumping abilities of athletes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of assisted jump training on counter-movement vertical jump (CMVJ) and spike jump (SPJ) ability in a group of elite male volleyball players. Seven junior national team volleyball players (18.0±1.0 yrs, 200.4±6.7 cm, and 84.0±7.2 kg) participated in this within-subjects cross-over counter-balanced training study. Assisted training involved 3 sessions per week of CMVJ training with 10 kg of assistance, applied through use of a bungee system, whilst normal jump training involved equated volume of unassisted counter-movement vertical jumps. Training periods were 5 weeks duration, with a 3-week wash-out separating them. Prior to and at the conclusion of each training period jump testing for CMVJ and SPJ height was conducted. Assisted jump training resulted in gains of 2.7±0.7 cm (pSports Medicine Australia. All rights reserved.

Jumping in Arithmetic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, Albert

In this paper we study a new relation between sentences: the jump relation. The idea of the jump relation is based on an analysis of Feferman's Theorem that the inconsistency of a theory U is interpretable over U. The jump relation is based on a converse of Feferman's Theorem: if a sentence is

Jumping in Arithmetic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, Albert

2014-01-01

In this paper we study a new relation between sentences: the jump relation. The idea of the jump relation is based on an analysis of Feferman's Theorem that the inconsistency of a theory U is interpretable over U. The jump relation is based on a converse of Feferman's Theorem: if a sentence is

Explicit calibration and simulation of stochastic fields by low-order ARMA processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krenk, Steen

2011-01-01

A simple framework for autoregressive simulation of stochastic fields is presented. The autoregressive format leads to a simple exponential correlation structure in the time-dimension. In the case of scalar processes a more detailed correlation structure can be obtained by adding memory...... to the process via an extension to autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. The ARMA format incorporates a more detailed correlation structure by including previous values of the simulated process. Alternatively, a more detailed correlation structure can be obtained by including additional 'state......-space' variables in the simulation. For a scalar process this would imply an increase of the dimension of the process to be simulated. In the case of a stochastic field the correlation in the time-dimension is represented, although indirectly, in the simultaneous spatial correlation. The model with the shortest...

Hidden symmetries and equilibrium properties of multiplicative white-noise stochastic processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arenas, Zochil González; Barci, Daniel G

2012-01-01

Multiplicative white-noise stochastic processes continue to attract attention in a wide area of scientific research. The variety of prescriptions available for defining them makes the development of general tools for their characterization difficult. In this work, we study equilibrium properties of Markovian multiplicative white-noise processes. For this, we define the time reversal transformation for such processes, taking into account that the asymptotic stationary probability distribution depends on the prescription. Representing the stochastic process in a functional Grassmann formalism, we avoid the necessity of fixing a particular prescription. In this framework, we analyze equilibrium properties and study hidden symmetries of the process. We show that, using a careful definition of the equilibrium distribution and taking into account the appropriate time reversal transformation, usual equilibrium properties are satisfied for any prescription. Finally, we present a detailed deduction of a covariant supersymmetric formulation of a multiplicative Markovian white-noise process and study some of the constraints that it imposes on correlation functions using Ward–Takahashi identities. (paper)

Hidden symmetries and equilibrium properties of multiplicative white-noise stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

González Arenas, Zochil; Barci, Daniel G.

2012-12-01

Multiplicative white-noise stochastic processes continue to attract attention in a wide area of scientific research. The variety of prescriptions available for defining them makes the development of general tools for their characterization difficult. In this work, we study equilibrium properties of Markovian multiplicative white-noise processes. For this, we define the time reversal transformation for such processes, taking into account that the asymptotic stationary probability distribution depends on the prescription. Representing the stochastic process in a functional Grassmann formalism, we avoid the necessity of fixing a particular prescription. In this framework, we analyze equilibrium properties and study hidden symmetries of the process. We show that, using a careful definition of the equilibrium distribution and taking into account the appropriate time reversal transformation, usual equilibrium properties are satisfied for any prescription. Finally, we present a detailed deduction of a covariant supersymmetric formulation of a multiplicative Markovian white-noise process and study some of the constraints that it imposes on correlation functions using Ward-Takahashi identities.

The reliability of vertical jump tests between the Vertec and My Jump phone application.

Science.gov (United States)

Yingling, Vanessa R; Castro, Dimitri A; Duong, Justin T; Malpartida, Fiorella J; Usher, Justin R; O, Jenny

2018-01-01

The vertical jump is used to estimate sports performance capabilities and physical fitness in children, elderly, non-athletic and injured individuals. Different jump techniques and measurement tools are available to assess vertical jump height and peak power; however, their use is limited by access to laboratory settings, excessive cost and/or time constraints thus making these tools oftentimes unsuitable for field assessment. A popular field test uses the Vertec and the Sargent vertical jump with countermovement; however, new low cost, easy to use tools are becoming available, including the My Jump iOS mobile application (app). The purpose of this study was to assess the reliability of the My Jump relative to values obtained by the Vertec for the Sargent stand and reach vertical jump (VJ) test. One hundred and thirty-five healthy participants aged 18-39 years (94 males, 41 females) completed three maximal Sargent VJ with countermovement that were simultaneously measured using the Vertec and the My Jump . Jump heights were quantified for each jump and peak power was calculated using the Sayers equation. Four separate ICC estimates and their 95% confidence intervals were used to assess reliability. Two analyses (with jump height and calculated peak power as the dependent variables, respectively) were based on a single rater, consistency, two-way mixed-effects model, while two others (with jump height and calculated peak power as the dependent variables, respectively) were based on a single rater, absolute agreement, two-way mixed-effects model. Moderate to excellent reliability relative to the degree of consistency between the Vertec and My Jump values was found for jump height (ICC = 0.813; 95% CI [0.747-0.863]) and calculated peak power (ICC = 0.926; 95% CI [0.897-0.947]). However, poor to good reliability relative to absolute agreement for VJ height (ICC = 0.665; 95% CI [0.050-0.859]) and poor to excellent reliability relative to absolute agreement for peak power

Bibliography on the stochastic processes in plasma and related problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polovin, R.V.

1976-01-01

Stochastic processes in plasma and related matters. The bibliography contains 500 references and was compiled from the open literature only. Some references are annotated or completed with short abstracts. There are subject and authors indexes

Jump-Down Performance Alterations after Space Flight

Science.gov (United States)

Reschke, M. F.; Kofman, I. S.; Cerisano, J. M.; Fisher, E. A.; Peters, B. T.; Miller, C. A.; Harm, D. L.; Bloomberg, J. J.

2011-01-01

in astronauts abilities to maintain balance and achieve a postural stability upon landing from a jump early after flight. However, the jump landing adaptation process often begins after the first jump with full recovery of most performance parameters within days after space flight. As expected, performance of ISS astronauts on the first day after flight was similar to that of Shuttle crewmembers on landing day.

Evolution and mass extinctions as lognormal stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Maccone, Claudio

2014-10-01

In a series of recent papers and in a book, this author put forward a mathematical model capable of embracing the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI), Darwinian Evolution and Human History into a single, unified statistical picture, concisely called Evo-SETI. The relevant mathematical tools are: (1) Geometric Brownian motion (GBM), the stochastic process representing evolution as the stochastic increase of the number of species living on Earth over the last 3.5 billion years. This GBM is well known in the mathematics of finances (Black-Sholes models). Its main features are that its probability density function (pdf) is a lognormal pdf, and its mean value is either an increasing or, more rarely, decreasing exponential function of the time. (2) The probability distributions known as b-lognormals, i.e. lognormals starting at a certain positive instant b>0 rather than at the origin. These b-lognormals were then forced by us to have their peak value located on the exponential mean-value curve of the GBM (Peak-Locus theorem). In the framework of Darwinian Evolution, the resulting mathematical construction was shown to be what evolutionary biologists call Cladistics. (3) The (Shannon) entropy of such b-lognormals is then seen to represent the `degree of progress' reached by each living organism or by each big set of living organisms, like historic human civilizations. Having understood this fact, human history may then be cast into the language of b-lognormals that are more and more organized in time (i.e. having smaller and smaller entropy, or smaller and smaller `chaos'), and have their peaks on the increasing GBM exponential. This exponential is thus the `trend of progress' in human history. (4) All these results also match with SETI in that the statistical Drake equation (generalization of the ordinary Drake equation to encompass statistics) leads just to the lognormal distribution as the probability distribution for the number of extra

Usefulness of the jump-and-reach test in assessment of vertical jump performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Menzel, Hans-Joachim; Chagas, Mauro H; Szmuchrowski, Leszek A; Araujo, Silvia R; Campos, Carlos E; Giannetti, Marcus R

2010-02-01

The objective was to estimate the reliability and criterion-related validity of the Jump-and-Reach Test for the assessment of squat, countermovement, and drop jump performance of 32 male Brazilian professional volleyball players. Performance of squat, countermovement, and drop jumps with different dropping heights was assessed on the Jump-and-Reach Test and the measurement of flight time, then compared across different jump trials. The very high reliability coefficients of both assessment methods and the lower correlation coefficients between scores on the assessments indicate a very high consistency of each method but only moderate covariation, which means that they measure partly different items. As a consequence, the Jump-and-Reach Test has good ecological validity in situations when reaching height during the flight phase is critical for performance (e.g., basketball and volleyball) but only limited accuracy for the assessment of vertical impulse production with different jump techniques and conditions.

Stochasticity in processes fundamentals and applications to chemistry and biology

CERN Document Server

Schuster, Peter

2016-01-01

This book has developed over the past fifteen years from a modern course on stochastic chemical kinetics for graduate students in physics, chemistry and biology. The first part presents a systematic collection of the mathematical background material needed to understand probability, statistics, and stochastic processes as a prerequisite for the increasingly challenging practical applications in chemistry and the life sciences examined in the second part. Recent advances in the development of new techniques and in the resolution of conventional experiments at nano-scales have been tremendous: today molecular spectroscopy can provide insights into processes down to scales at which current theories at the interface of physics, chemistry and the life sciences cannot be successful without a firm grasp of randomness and its sources. Routinely measured data is now sufficiently accurate to allow the direct recording of fluctuations. As a result, the sampling of data and the modeling of relevant processes are doomed t...

Measurements of K shell absorption jump factors and jump ratios using EDXRF technique

Science.gov (United States)

Kacal, Mustafa Recep; Han, İbrahim; Akman, Ferdi

2015-04-01

In the present work, the K-shell absorption jump factors and jump ratios for 30 elements between Ti ( Z = 22) and Er ( Z = 68) were measured by energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) technique. The jump factors and jump ratios for these elements were determined by measuring the K shell fluorescence parameters such as the Kα X-ray production cross-sections, K shell fluorescence yields, Kβ-to- Kα X-rays intensity ratios, total atomic absorption cross sections and mass attenuation coefficients. The measurements were performed using an Am-241 radioactive point source and a Si (Li) detector in direct excitation and transmission experimental geometry. The results for jump factors and jump ratios were compared with theoretically calculated and the ones available in the literature.

Jumping on water

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ho-Young

2016-11-01

Water striders can jump on water as high as they can jump on land. Quick jumps allow them to avoid sudden dangers such as predators' attacks, and therefore understanding how they make such a dramatic motion for survival can shed light on the ultimate level of semi-aquatic motility achievable through evolution. However, the mechanism of their vertical jumping from a water surface has eluded hydrodynamic explanations so far. By observing movements of water strider legs and theoretically analyzing their dynamic interactions with deforming liquid-air interface, we have recently found that different species of jumping striders always tune their leg rotation speed with a force just below that required to break the water surface to reach the maximum take-off velocity. Here, we start with discussing the fundamental theories of dynamics of floating and sinking of small objects. The theories then enable us to analyze forces acting on a water strider while it presses down the water surface to fully exploit the capillary force. We further introduce a 68-milligram at-scale robotic insect capable of jumping on water without splash, strikingly similar to the real strider, by utilizing the water surface just as a trampoline.

Strength Determinants of Jump Height in the Jump Throw Movement in Women Handball Players.

Science.gov (United States)

McGhie, David; Østerås, Sindre; Ettema, Gertjan; Paulsen, Gøran; Sandbakk, Øyvind

2018-06-08

McGhie, D, Østerås, S, Ettema, G, Paulsen, G, and Sandbakk, Ø. Strength determinants of jump height in the jump throw movement in women handball players. J Strength Cond Res XX(X): 000-000, 2018-The purpose of the study was to improve the understanding of the strength demands of a handball-specific jump through examining the associations between jump height in a jump throw jump (JTJ) and measures of lower-body maximum strength and impulse in handball players. For comparison, whether the associations between jump height and strength differed between the JTJ and the customarily used countermovement jump (CMJ) was also examined. Twenty women handball players from a Norwegian top division club participated in the study. Jump height was measured in the JTJ and in unilateral and bilateral CMJ. Lower-body strength (maximum isometric force, one-repetition maximum [1RM], impulse at ∼60% and ∼35% 1RM) was measured in seated leg press. The associations between jump height and strength were assessed with correlation analyses and t-tests of dependent r's were performed to determine if correlations differed between jump tests. Only impulse at ∼35% 1RM correlated significantly with JTJ height (p jump height and strength were significantly weaker in the JTJ than in both CMJ tests for all strength measures (p = 0.001-0.044) except one. Maximum strength and impulse at ∼60% 1RM did not seem to sufficiently capture the capabilities associated with JTJ height, highlighting the importance of employing tests targeting performance-relevant neuromuscular characteristics when assessing jump-related strength in handball players. Further, CMJ height seemed to represent a wider range of strength capabilities and care should be taken when using it as a proxy for handball-specific movements.

Aperiodic signals processing via parameter-tuning stochastic resonance in a photorefractive ring cavity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuefeng Li

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Based on solving numerically the generalized nonlinear Langevin equation describing the nonlinear dynamics of stochastic resonance by Fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, an aperiodic stochastic resonance based on an optical bistable system is numerically investigated. The numerical results show that a parameter-tuning stochastic resonance system can be realized by choosing the appropriate optical bistable parameters, which performs well in reconstructing aperiodic signals from a very high level of noise background. The influences of optical bistable parameters on the stochastic resonance effect are numerically analyzed via cross-correlation, and a maximum cross-correlation gain of 8 is obtained by optimizing optical bistable parameters. This provides a prospective method for reconstructing noise-hidden weak signals in all-optical signal processing systems.

Description of quantum-mechanical motion by using the formalism of non-Markov stochastic process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skorobogatov, G.A.; Svertilov, S.I.

1999-01-01

The principle possibilities of mathematical modeling of quantum mechanical motion by the theory of a real stochastic processes is considered. The set of equations corresponding to the simplest case of a two-level system undergoing transitions under the influence of electromagnetic field are obtained. It is shown that quantum-mechanical processes are purely discrete processes of non-Markovian type. They are continuous processes in the space of probability amplitudes and posses the properties of quantum Markovity. The formulation of quantum mechanics in terms of the theory of stochastic processes is necessary for its generalization on small space-time intervals [ru

Asymptotic inference for jump diffusions with state-dependent intensity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Becheri, Gaia; Drost, Feico; Werker, Bas

2016-01-01

We establish the local asymptotic normality property for a class of ergodic parametric jump-diffusion processes with state-dependent intensity and known volatility function sampled at high frequency. We prove that the inference problem about the drift and jump parameters is adaptive with respect to

New exponential stability criteria for stochastic BAM neural networks with impulses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakthivel, R; Samidurai, R; Anthoni, S M

2010-01-01

In this paper, we study the global exponential stability of time-delayed stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses and Markovian jumping parameters. A generalized activation function is considered, and traditional assumptions on the boundedness, monotony and differentiability of activation functions are removed. We obtain a new set of sufficient conditions in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which ensures the global exponential stability of the unique equilibrium point for stochastic BAM neural networks with impulses. The Lyapunov function method with the Ito differential rule is employed for achieving the required result. Moreover, a numerical example is provided to show that the proposed result improves the allowable upper bound of delays over some existing results in the literature.

New exponential stability criteria for stochastic BAM neural networks with impulses

Science.gov (United States)

Sakthivel, R.; Samidurai, R.; Anthoni, S. M.

2010-10-01

In this paper, we study the global exponential stability of time-delayed stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses and Markovian jumping parameters. A generalized activation function is considered, and traditional assumptions on the boundedness, monotony and differentiability of activation functions are removed. We obtain a new set of sufficient conditions in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which ensures the global exponential stability of the unique equilibrium point for stochastic BAM neural networks with impulses. The Lyapunov function method with the Itô differential rule is employed for achieving the required result. Moreover, a numerical example is provided to show that the proposed result improves the allowable upper bound of delays over some existing results in the literature.

SDE decomposition and A-type stochastic interpretation in nonequilibrium processes

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Ruoshi; Tang, Ying; Ao, Ping

2017-12-01

An innovative theoretical framework for stochastic dynamics based on the decomposition of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) into a dissipative component, a detailed-balance-breaking component, and a dual-role potential landscape has been developed, which has fruitful applications in physics, engineering, chemistry, and biology. It introduces the A-type stochastic interpretation of the SDE beyond the traditional Ito or Stratonovich interpretation or even the α-type interpretation for multidimensional systems. The potential landscape serves as a Hamiltonian-like function in nonequilibrium processes without detailed balance, which extends this important concept from equilibrium statistical physics to the nonequilibrium region. A question on the uniqueness of the SDE decomposition was recently raised. Our review of both the mathematical and physical aspects shows that uniqueness is guaranteed. The demonstration leads to a better understanding of the robustness of the novel framework. In addition, we discuss related issues including the limitations of an approach to obtaining the potential function from a steady-state distribution.

A Constructive Sharp Approach to Functional Quantization of Stochastic Processes

OpenAIRE

Junglen, Stefan; Luschgy, Harald

2010-01-01

We present a constructive approach to the functional quantization problem of stochastic processes, with an emphasis on Gaussian processes. The approach is constructive, since we reduce the infinite-dimensional functional quantization problem to a finite-dimensional quantization problem that can be solved numerically. Our approach achieves the sharp rate of the minimal quantization error and can be used to quantize the path space for Gaussian processes and also, for example, Lévy processes.

Hydraulic jumps in ''viscous'' accretion disks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michel, F.C.

1984-01-01

We propose that the dissipative process necessary for rapid accretion disk evolution is driven by hydraulic jump waves on the surface of the disk. These waves are excited by the asymmetric nature of the central rotator (e.g., neutron star magnetosphere) and spiral out into the disk to form a pattern corotating with the central object. Disk matter in turn is slowed slightly at each encounter with the jump and spirals inward. In this process, the disk is heated by true turbulence produced in the jumps. Additional effects, such as a systematic misalignment of the magnetic moment of the neutron star until it is nearly orthogonal, and systematic distortion of the magnetosphere in such a way as to form an even more asymmetric central ''paddle wheel'' may enhance the interaction with inflowing matter. The application to X-ray sources corresponds to the ''slow'' solutions of Ghosh and Lamb, and therefore to rms magnetic fields of about 4 x 10 10 gauss. Analogous phenomena have been proposed to act in the formation of galactic spiral structure

Optimal Reinsurance-Investment Problem for an Insurer and a Reinsurer with Jump-Diffusion Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanlei Hu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The optimal reinsurance-investment strategies considering the interests of both the insurer and reinsurer are investigated. The surplus process is assumed to follow a jump-diffusion process and the insurer is permitted to purchase proportional reinsurance from the reinsurer. Applying dynamic programming approach and dual theory, the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations are derived and the optimal strategies for exponential utility function are obtained. In addition, several sensitivity analyses and numerical illustrations in the case with exponential claiming distributions are presented to analyze the effects of parameters about the optimal strategies.

Self-jumping Mechanism of Melting Frost on Superhydrophobic Surfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaolin; Chen, Huawei; Zhao, Zehui; Wang, Yamei; Liu, Hong; Zhang, Deyuan

2017-11-07

Frost accretion on surfaces may cause severe problems and the high-efficiency defrosting methods are still urgently needed in many application fields like heat transfer, optical and electric power system, etc. In this study, a nano-needle superhydrophobic surface is prepared and the frosting/defrosting experiments are conducted on it. Three steps are found in the defrosting process: melting frost shrinking and splitting, instantaneous self-triggered deforming followed by deformation-induced movements (namely, in-situ shaking, rotating, rolling, and self-jumping). The self-jumping performance of the melting frost is extremely fascinating and worth studying due to its capability of evidently shortening the defrosting process and reducing (even avoiding) residual droplets after defrosting. The study on the melting frost self-jumping phenomena demonstrates that the kinetic energy transformed from instantaneous superficial area change in self-triggered deforming step is the intrinsic reason for various melting frost self-propelled movements, and when the transformed energy reaches a certain amount, the self-jumping phenomena occur. And some facilitating conditions for melting frost self-jumping phenomena are also discussed. This work will provide an efficient way for defrosting or an inspiration for further research on defrosting.

Portfolio Selection with Jumps under Regime Switching

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Zhao

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate a continuous-time version of the mean-variance portfolio selection model with jumps under regime switching. The portfolio selection is proposed and analyzed for a market consisting of one bank account and multiple stocks. The random regime switching is assumed to be independent of the underlying Brownian motion and jump processes. A Markov chain modulated diffusion formulation is employed to model the problem.

Coordination in vertical jumping

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bobbert, Maarten F.; van Ingen Schenau, Gerrit Jan

1988-01-01

The present study was designed to investigate for vertical jumping the relationships between muscle actions, movement pattern and jumping achievement. Ten skilled jumpers performed jumps with preparatory countermovement. Ground reaction forces and cinematographic data were recorded. In addition,

Fluctuations of Lévy processes with applications introductory lectures

CERN Document Server

Kyprianou, Andreas E

2014-01-01

Lévy processes are the natural continuous-time analogue of random walks and form a rich class of stochastic processes around which a robust mathematical theory exists. Their application appears in the theory of many areas of classical and modern stochastic processes including storage models, renewal processes, insurance risk models, optimal stopping problems, mathematical finance, continuous-state branching processes and positive self-similar Markov processes. This textbook is based on a series of graduate courses concerning the theory and application of Lévy processes from the perspective of their path fluctuations. Central to the presentation is the decomposition of paths in terms of excursions from the running maximum as well as an understanding of short- and long-term behaviour. The book aims to be mathematically rigorous while still providing an intuitive feel for underlying principles. The results and applications often focus on the case of Lévy processes with jumps in only one direction, for which r...

Timeless Approach to Quantum Jumps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ignazio Licata

2015-10-01

Full Text Available According to the usual quantum description, the time evolution of the quantum state is continuous and deterministic except when a discontinuous and indeterministic collapse of state vector occurs. The collapse has been a central topic since the origin of the theory, although there are remarkable theoretical proposals to understand its nature, such as the Ghirardi–Rimini–Weber. Another possibility could be the assimilation of collapse with the now experimentally well established phenomenon of quantum jump, postulated by Bohr already in 1913. The challenge of nonlocality offers an opportunity to reconsider the quantum jump as a fundamental element of the logic of the physical world, rather than a subsidiary accident. We propose here a simple preliminary model that considers quantum jumps as processes of entry to and exit from the usual temporal domain to a timeless vacuum, without contradicting the quantum relativistic formalism, and we present some potential connections with particle physics. Quanta 2015; 4: 10–26.

Stochastic evolution of the Universe: A possible dynamical process ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

C Sivakumar

2017-12-11

Dec 11, 2017 ... https://doi.org/10.1007/s12043-017-1491-z. Stochastic evolution of the Universe: A possible dynamical process leading to fractal structures. C SIVAKUMAR. Department of Physics, Maharaja's College, Ernakulam 682 011, India. E-mail: thrisivc@yahoo.com. MS received 6 July 2016; revised 26 June 2017; ...

Stochastic processes and long range dependence

CERN Document Server

Samorodnitsky, Gennady

2016-01-01

This monograph is a gateway for researchers and graduate students to explore the profound, yet subtle, world of long-range dependence (also known as long memory). The text is organized around the probabilistic properties of stationary processes that are important for determining the presence or absence of long memory. The first few chapters serve as an overview of the general theory of stochastic processes which gives the reader sufficient background, language, and models for the subsequent discussion of long memory. The later chapters devoted to long memory begin with an introduction to the subject along with a brief history of its development, followed by a presentation of what is currently the best known approach, applicable to stationary processes with a finite second moment. The book concludes with a chapter devoted to the author’s own, less standard, point of view of long memory as a phase transition, and even includes some novel results. Most of the material in the book has not previously been publis...

Efficient rare-event simulation for multiple jump events in regularly varying random walks and compound Poisson processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Chen (Bohan); J. Blanchet; C.H. Rhee (Chang-Han); A.P. Zwart (Bert)

2017-01-01

textabstractWe propose a class of strongly efficient rare event simulation estimators for random walks and compound Poisson processes with a regularly varying increment/jump-size distribution in a general large deviations regime. Our estimator is based on an importance sampling strategy that hinges

Quantum learning of classical stochastic processes: The completely positive realization problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monràs, Alex; Winter, Andreas

2016-01-01

Among several tasks in Machine Learning, a specially important one is the problem of inferring the latent variables of a system and their causal relations with the observed behavior. A paradigmatic instance of this is the task of inferring the hidden Markov model underlying a given stochastic process. This is known as the positive realization problem (PRP), [L. Benvenuti and L. Farina, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 49(5), 651–664 (2004)] and constitutes a central problem in machine learning. The PRP and its solutions have far-reaching consequences in many areas of systems and control theory, and is nowadays an important piece in the broad field of positive systems theory. We consider the scenario where the latent variables are quantum (i.e., quantum states of a finite-dimensional system) and the system dynamics is constrained only by physical transformations on the quantum system. The observable dynamics is then described by a quantum instrument, and the task is to determine which quantum instrument — if any — yields the process at hand by iterative application. We take as a starting point the theory of quasi-realizations, whence a description of the dynamics of the process is given in terms of linear maps on state vectors and probabilities are given by linear functionals on the state vectors. This description, despite its remarkable resemblance with the hidden Markov model, or the iterated quantum instrument, is however devoid of any stochastic or quantum mechanical interpretation, as said maps fail to satisfy any positivity conditions. The completely positive realization problem then consists in determining whether an equivalent quantum mechanical description of the same process exists. We generalize some key results of stochastic realization theory, and show that the problem has deep connections with operator systems theory, giving possible insight to the lifting problem in quotient operator systems. Our results have potential applications in quantum machine

Quantum learning of classical stochastic processes: The completely positive realization problem

Science.gov (United States)

Monràs, Alex; Winter, Andreas

2016-01-01

Among several tasks in Machine Learning, a specially important one is the problem of inferring the latent variables of a system and their causal relations with the observed behavior. A paradigmatic instance of this is the task of inferring the hidden Markov model underlying a given stochastic process. This is known as the positive realization problem (PRP), [L. Benvenuti and L. Farina, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 49(5), 651-664 (2004)] and constitutes a central problem in machine learning. The PRP and its solutions have far-reaching consequences in many areas of systems and control theory, and is nowadays an important piece in the broad field of positive systems theory. We consider the scenario where the latent variables are quantum (i.e., quantum states of a finite-dimensional system) and the system dynamics is constrained only by physical transformations on the quantum system. The observable dynamics is then described by a quantum instrument, and the task is to determine which quantum instrument — if any — yields the process at hand by iterative application. We take as a starting point the theory of quasi-realizations, whence a description of the dynamics of the process is given in terms of linear maps on state vectors and probabilities are given by linear functionals on the state vectors. This description, despite its remarkable resemblance with the hidden Markov model, or the iterated quantum instrument, is however devoid of any stochastic or quantum mechanical interpretation, as said maps fail to satisfy any positivity conditions. The completely positive realization problem then consists in determining whether an equivalent quantum mechanical description of the same process exists. We generalize some key results of stochastic realization theory, and show that the problem has deep connections with operator systems theory, giving possible insight to the lifting problem in quotient operator systems. Our results have potential applications in quantum machine

Quantum learning of classical stochastic processes: The completely positive realization problem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monràs, Alex [Física Teòrica: Informació i Fenòmens Quàntics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore, 3 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117543 (Singapore); Winter, Andreas [Física Teòrica: Informació i Fenòmens Quàntics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore, 3 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117543 (Singapore); ICREA—Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Pg. Lluis Companys, 23, 08010 Barcelona (Spain)

2016-01-15

Among several tasks in Machine Learning, a specially important one is the problem of inferring the latent variables of a system and their causal relations with the observed behavior. A paradigmatic instance of this is the task of inferring the hidden Markov model underlying a given stochastic process. This is known as the positive realization problem (PRP), [L. Benvenuti and L. Farina, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 49(5), 651–664 (2004)] and constitutes a central problem in machine learning. The PRP and its solutions have far-reaching consequences in many areas of systems and control theory, and is nowadays an important piece in the broad field of positive systems theory. We consider the scenario where the latent variables are quantum (i.e., quantum states of a finite-dimensional system) and the system dynamics is constrained only by physical transformations on the quantum system. The observable dynamics is then described by a quantum instrument, and the task is to determine which quantum instrument — if any — yields the process at hand by iterative application. We take as a starting point the theory of quasi-realizations, whence a description of the dynamics of the process is given in terms of linear maps on state vectors and probabilities are given by linear functionals on the state vectors. This description, despite its remarkable resemblance with the hidden Markov model, or the iterated quantum instrument, is however devoid of any stochastic or quantum mechanical interpretation, as said maps fail to satisfy any positivity conditions. The completely positive realization problem then consists in determining whether an equivalent quantum mechanical description of the same process exists. We generalize some key results of stochastic realization theory, and show that the problem has deep connections with operator systems theory, giving possible insight to the lifting problem in quotient operator systems. Our results have potential applications in quantum machine

An adaptive algorithm for simulation of stochastic reaction-diffusion processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferm, Lars; Hellander, Andreas; Loetstedt, Per

2010-01-01

We propose an adaptive hybrid method suitable for stochastic simulation of diffusion dominated reaction-diffusion processes. For such systems, simulation of the diffusion requires the predominant part of the computing time. In order to reduce the computational work, the diffusion in parts of the domain is treated macroscopically, in other parts with the tau-leap method and in the remaining parts with Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) as implemented in the next subvolume method (NSM). The chemical reactions are handled by SSA everywhere in the computational domain. A trajectory of the process is advanced in time by an operator splitting technique and the timesteps are chosen adaptively. The spatial adaptation is based on estimates of the errors in the tau-leap method and the macroscopic diffusion. The accuracy and efficiency of the method are demonstrated in examples from molecular biology where the domain is discretized by unstructured meshes.

Dynamic Jump Intensities and Risk Premiums in Crude Oil Futures and Options Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Li, Bingxin

2016-01-01

Options on crude oil futures are the most actively traded commodity options. We develop a class of computationally efficient discrete-time jump models that allow for closed-form option valuation, and we use crude oil futures and options data to investigate the economic importance of jumps...... and dynamic jump intensities in these markets. Allowing for jumps is crucial for modeling crude oil futures and futures options, and we find evidence in favor of time-varying jump intensities. During crisis periods, jumps occur more frequently. The properties of the jump processes implied by the option data...... differ from those implied by the futures data, which may be due to improved parameter identification....

The effect of wind on jumping distance in ski jumping--fairness assessed.

Science.gov (United States)

Virmavirta, Mikko; Kivekäs, Juha

2012-09-01

The special wind compensation system recently adopted by Fédération Internationale de Ski (FIS; International Ski Federation) to consider the effects of changing wind conditions has caused some controversy. Here, the effect of wind on jumping distance in ski jumping was studied by means of computer simulation and compared with the wind compensation factors used by FIS during the World Cup season 2009/2010. The results showed clearly that the effect of increasing head/tail wind on jumping distance is not linear: +17.4 m/-29.1 m, respectively, for a wind speed of 3 m/s. The linear formula used in the trial period of the wind compensation system was found to be appropriate only for a limited range of jumping distances as the gradient of the landing slope slows down the rate of distance change in long jumps.

Changing contributions of stochastic and deterministic processes in community assembly over a successional gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Måren, Inger Elisabeth; Kapfer, Jutta; Aarrestad, Per Arild; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Vandvik, Vigdis

2018-01-01

Successional dynamics in plant community assembly may result from both deterministic and stochastic ecological processes. The relative importance of different ecological processes is expected to vary over the successional sequence, between different plant functional groups, and with the disturbance levels and land-use management regimes of the successional systems. We evaluate the relative importance of stochastic and deterministic processes in bryophyte and vascular plant community assembly after fire in grazed and ungrazed anthropogenic coastal heathlands in Northern Europe. A replicated series of post-fire successions (n = 12) were initiated under grazed and ungrazed conditions, and vegetation data were recorded in permanent plots over 13 years. We used redundancy analysis (RDA) to test for deterministic successional patterns in species composition repeated across the replicate successional series and analyses of co-occurrence to evaluate to what extent species respond synchronously along the successional gradient. Change in species co-occurrences over succession indicates stochastic successional dynamics at the species level (i.e., species equivalence), whereas constancy in co-occurrence indicates deterministic dynamics (successional niche differentiation). The RDA shows high and deterministic vascular plant community compositional change, especially early in succession. Co-occurrence analyses indicate stochastic species-level dynamics the first two years, which then give way to more deterministic replacements. Grazed and ungrazed successions are similar, but the early stage stochasticity is higher in ungrazed areas. Bryophyte communities in ungrazed successions resemble vascular plant communities. In contrast, bryophytes in grazed successions showed consistently high stochasticity and low determinism in both community composition and species co-occurrence. In conclusion, stochastic and individualistic species responses early in succession give way to more

Influence of Knee-to-Feet Jump Training on Vertical Jump and Hang Clean Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Stark, Laura; Pickett, Karla; Bird, Michael; King, Adam C

2016-11-01

Stark, L, Pickett, K, Bird, M, and King, AC. Influence of knee-to-feet jump training on vertical jump and hang clean performance. J Strength Cond Res 30(11): 3084-3089, 2016-From a motor learning perspective, the practice/training environment can result in positive, negative, or neutral transfer to the testing conditions. The purpose of this study was to examine the training effect of a novel movement (knee-to-feet [K2F] jumps) and whether a 6-week training program induced a positive transfer effect to other power-related movements (vertical jump and hang clean [HC]). Twenty-six intercollegiate athletes from power-emphasized sports were paired and counter-balanced into a control (i.e., maintained their respective sport-specific lifting regimen) or an experimental group (i.e., completed a 6-week progressive training program of K2F jumps in addition to respective lifting regimen). A pre- and posttest design was used to investigate the effect of training on K2F jump height and transfer effect to vertical jump height (VJH) and 2-repetition maximum (RM) HC performance. A significant increase in K2F jump height was found for the experimental group. Vertical jump height significantly increased from pre- to posttest but no group or interaction (group × time) effect was found, and there were nonsignificant differences for HC. Posttest data showed significant correlations between all pairs of the selected exercises with the highest correlation between K2F jump height and VJ H (R = 0.40) followed by VJH and 2RM HC (R = 0.38) and 2RM HC and K2F jump height (R = 0.23). The results suggest that K2F jump training induced the desired learning effect but was specific to the movement in that no effect of transfer occurred to the other power-related movements. This finding is value for strength and condition professionals who design training programs to enhance athletic performance.

Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers.

Science.gov (United States)

Sazonov, Igor; Kelbert, Mark; Gravenor, Michael B

2016-04-01

We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple-scale stochastic processes: Decimation, averaging and beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bo, Stefano, E-mail: stefano.bo@nordita.org [Nordita, KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University, Roslagstullsbacken 23, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden); Celani, Antonio [Quantitative Life Sciences, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Strada Costiera 11, I-34151 - Trieste (Italy)

2017-02-07

The recent experimental progresses in handling microscopic systems have allowed to probe them at levels where fluctuations are prominent, calling for stochastic modeling in a large number of physical, chemical and biological phenomena. This has provided fruitful applications for established stochastic methods and motivated further developments. These systems often involve processes taking place on widely separated time scales. For an efficient modeling one usually focuses on the slower degrees of freedom and it is of great importance to accurately eliminate the fast variables in a controlled fashion, carefully accounting for their net effect on the slower dynamics. This procedure in general requires to perform two different operations: decimation and coarse-graining. We introduce the asymptotic methods that form the basis of this procedure and discuss their application to a series of physical, biological and chemical examples. We then turn our attention to functionals of the stochastic trajectories such as residence times, counting statistics, fluxes, entropy production, etc. which have been increasingly studied in recent years. For such functionals, the elimination of the fast degrees of freedom can present additional difficulties and naive procedures can lead to blatantly inconsistent results. Homogenization techniques for functionals are less covered in the literature and we will pedagogically present them here, as natural extensions of the ones employed for the trajectories. We will also discuss recent applications of these techniques to the thermodynamics of small systems and their interpretation in terms of information-theoretic concepts.

Jump Horse Safety: Reconciling Public Debate and Australian Thoroughbred Jump Racing Data, 2012-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruse, Karen; Davison, Aidan; Bridle, Kerry

2015-10-22

Thoroughbred jump racing sits in the spotlight of contemporary welfare and ethical debates about horse racing. In Australia, jump racing comprises hurdle and steeplechase races and has ceased in all but two states, Victoria and South Australia. This paper documents the size, geography, composition, and dynamics of Australian jump racing for the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons with a focus on debate about risks to horses. We found that the majority of Australian jump racing is regional, based in Victoria, and involves a small group of experienced trainers and jockeys. Australian jump horses are on average 6.4 years of age. The jump career of the majority of horses involves participating in three or less hurdle races and over one season. Almost one quarter of Australian jump horses race only once. There were ten horse fatalities in races over the study period, with an overall fatality rate of 5.1 fatalities per 1000 horses starting in a jump race (0.51%). There was significant disparity between the fatality rate for hurdles, 0.75 fatalities per 1000 starts (0.075%) and steeplechases, 14 fatalities per 1000 starts (1.4%). Safety initiatives introduced by regulators in 2010 appear to have significantly decreased risks to horses in hurdles but have had little or no effect in steeplechases. Our discussion considers these Animals 2015, 5 1073 data in light of public controversy, political debate, and industry regulation related to jump horse safety.

Stochastic processes from physics to finance

CERN Document Server

Paul, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

This book introduces the theory of stochastic processes with applications taken from physics and finance. Fundamental concepts like the random walk or Brownian motion but also Levy-stable distributions are discussed. Applications are selected to show the interdisciplinary character of the concepts and methods. In the second edition of the book a discussion of extreme events ranging from their mathematical definition to their importance for financial crashes was included. The exposition of basic notions of probability theory and the Brownian motion problem as well as the relation between conservative diffusion processes and quantum mechanics is expanded. The second edition also enlarges the treatment of financial markets. Beyond a presentation of geometric Brownian motion and the Black-Scholes approach to option pricing as well as the econophysics analysis of the stylized facts of financial markets, an introduction to agent based modeling approaches is given.

Determinants of the abilities to jump higher and shorten the contact time in a running 1-legged vertical jump in basketball.

Science.gov (United States)

Miura, Ken; Yamamoto, Masayoshi; Tamaki, Hiroyuki; Zushi, Koji

2010-01-01

This study was conducted to obtain useful information for developing training techniques for the running 1-legged vertical jump in basketball (lay-up shot jump). The ability to perform the lay-up shot jump and various basic jumps was measured by testing 19 male basketball players. The basic jumps consisted of the 1-legged repeated rebound jump, the 2-legged repeated rebound jump, and the countermovement jump. Jumping height, contact time, and jumping index (jumping height/contact time) were measured and calculated using a contact mat/computer system that recorded the contact and air times. The jumping index indicates power. No significant correlation existed between the jumping height and contact time of the lay-up shot jump, the 2 components of the lay-up shot jump index. As a result, jumping height and contact time were found to be mutually independent abilities. The relationships in contact time between the lay-up shot jump to the 1-legged repeated rebound jump and the 2-legged repeated rebound jump were correlated on the same significance levels (p jumping height existed between the 1-legged repeated rebound jump and the lay-up shot jump (p jumping height between the lay-up shot jump and both the 2-legged repeated rebound jump and countermovement jump. The lay-up shot index correlated more strongly to the 1-legged repeated rebound jump index (p jump index (p jump is effective in improving both contact time and jumping height in the lay-up shot jump.

Dimension reduction of Karhunen-Loeve expansion for simulation of stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zixin; Peng, Yongbo

2017-11-01

Conventional Karhunen-Loeve expansions for simulation of stochastic processes often encounter the challenge of dealing with hundreds of random variables. For breaking through the barrier, a random function embedded Karhunen-Loeve expansion method is proposed in this paper. The updated scheme has a similar form to the conventional Karhunen-Loeve expansion, both involving a summation of a series of deterministic orthonormal basis and uncorrelated random variables. While the difference from the updated scheme lies in the dimension reduction of Karhunen-Loeve expansion through introducing random functions as a conditional constraint upon uncorrelated random variables. The random function is expressed as a single-elementary-random-variable orthogonal function in polynomial format (non-Gaussian variables) or trigonometric format (non-Gaussian and Gaussian variables). For illustrative purposes, the simulation of seismic ground motion is carried out using the updated scheme. Numerical investigations reveal that the Karhunen-Loeve expansion with random functions could gain desirable simulation results in case of a moderate sample number, except the Hermite polynomials and the Laguerre polynomials. It has the sound applicability and efficiency in simulation of stochastic processes. Besides, the updated scheme has the benefit of integrating with probability density evolution method, readily for the stochastic analysis of nonlinear structures.

A stochastic version of the Price equation reveals the interplay of deterministic and stochastic processes in evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rice Sean H

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Evolution involves both deterministic and random processes, both of which are known to contribute to directional evolutionary change. A number of studies have shown that when fitness is treated as a random variable, meaning that each individual has a distribution of possible fitness values, then both the mean and variance of individual fitness distributions contribute to directional evolution. Unfortunately the most general mathematical description of evolution that we have, the Price equation, is derived under the assumption that both fitness and offspring phenotype are fixed values that are known exactly. The Price equation is thus poorly equipped to study an important class of evolutionary processes. Results I present a general equation for directional evolutionary change that incorporates both deterministic and stochastic processes and applies to any evolving system. This is essentially a stochastic version of the Price equation, but it is derived independently and contains terms with no analog in Price's formulation. This equation shows that the effects of selection are actually amplified by random variation in fitness. It also generalizes the known tendency of populations to be pulled towards phenotypes with minimum variance in fitness, and shows that this is matched by a tendency to be pulled towards phenotypes with maximum positive asymmetry in fitness. This equation also contains a term, having no analog in the Price equation, that captures cases in which the fitness of parents has a direct effect on the phenotype of their offspring. Conclusion Directional evolution is influenced by the entire distribution of individual fitness, not just the mean and variance. Though all moments of individuals' fitness distributions contribute to evolutionary change, the ways that they do so follow some general rules. These rules are invisible to the Price equation because it describes evolution retrospectively. An equally general

Statistical inference for stochastic processes

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Basawa, Ishwar V; Prakasa Rao, B. L. S

1980-01-01

The aim of this monograph is to attempt to reduce the gap between theory and applications in the area of stochastic modelling, by directing the interest of future researchers to the inference aspects...

QUANTUM STOCHASTIC PROCESSES: BOSON AND FERMION BROWNIAN MOTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.E.Kobryn

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Dynamics of quantum systems which are stochastically perturbed by linear coupling to the reservoir can be studied in terms of quantum stochastic differential equations (for example, quantum stochastic Liouville equation and quantum Langevin equation. In order to work it out one needs to define the quantum Brownian motion. As far as only its boson version has been known until recently, in the present paper we present the definition which makes it possible to consider the fermion Brownian motion as well.

The Black-Scholes option pricing problem in mathematical finance: generalization and extensions for a large class of stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Sornette, Didier

1994-06-01

The ability to price risks and devise optimal investment strategies in thé présence of an uncertain "random" market is thé cornerstone of modern finance theory. We first consider thé simplest such problem of a so-called "European call option" initially solved by Black and Scholes using Ito stochastic calculus for markets modelled by a log-Brownien stochastic process. A simple and powerful formalism is presented which allows us to generalize thé analysis to a large class of stochastic processes, such as ARCH, jump or Lévy processes. We also address thé case of correlated Gaussian processes, which is shown to be a good description of three différent market indices (MATIF, CAC40, FTSE100). Our main result is thé introduction of thé concept of an optimal strategy in the sense of (functional) minimization of the risk with respect to the portfolio. If the risk may be made to vanish for particular continuous uncorrelated 'quasiGaussian' stochastic processes (including Black and Scholes model), this is no longer the case for more general stochastic processes. The value of the residual risk is obtained and suggests the concept of risk-corrected option prices. In the presence of very large deviations such as in Lévy processes, new criteria for rational fixing of the option prices are discussed. We also apply our method to other types of options, `Asian', `American', and discuss new possibilities (`doubledecker'...). The inclusion of transaction costs leads to the appearance of a natural characteristic trading time scale. L'aptitude à quantifier le coût du risque et à définir une stratégie optimale de gestion de portefeuille dans un marché aléatoire constitue la base de la théorie moderne de la finance. Nous considérons d'abord le problème le plus simple de ce type, à savoir celui de l'option d'achat `européenne', qui a été résolu par Black et Scholes à l'aide du calcul stochastique d'Ito appliqué aux marchés modélisés par un processus Log

The Effects of Aquatic Plyometric Training on Repeated Jumps, Drop Jumps and Muscle Damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Jurado-Lavanant, A; Alvero-Cruz, J R; Pareja-Blanco, F; Melero-Romero, C; Rodríguez-Rosell, D; Fernandez-Garcia, J C

2015-09-22

The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of land- vs. aquatic based plyometric training programs on the drop jump, repeated jump performance and muscle damage. Sixty-five male students were randomly assigned to one of 3 groups: aquatic plyometric training group (APT), plyometric training group (PT) and control group (CG). Both experimental groups trained twice a week for 10 weeks performing the same number of sets and total jumps. The following variables were measured prior to, halfway through and after the training programs: creatine kinase (CK) concentration, maximal height during a drop jump from the height of 30 (DJ30) and 50 cm (DJ50), and mean height during a repeated vertical jump test (RJ). The training program resulted in a significant increase (Pplyometric training, PT produced greater gains on reactive jumps performance than APT. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Validity of Hip-worn Inertial Measurement Unit Compared to Jump Mat for Jump Height Measurement in Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Rantalainen, T; Hesketh, K D; Rodda, C; Duckham, R L

2018-06-16

Jump tests assess lower body power production capacity, and can be used to evaluate athletic ability and development during growth. Wearable inertial measurement units (IMU) seem to offer a feasible alternative to laboratory-based equipment for jump height assessments. Concurrent validity of these devices for jump height assessments has only been established in adults. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the concurrent validity of IMU-based jump height estimate compared to contact mat-based jump height estimate in adolescents. Ninety-five adolescents (10-13 years-of-age; girls N=41, height = 154 (SD 9) cm, weight = 44 (11) kg; boys N=54, height=156 (10) cm, weight = 46 (13) kg) completed three counter-movement jumps for maximal jump height on a contact mat. Inertial recordings (accelerations, rotations) were concurrently recorded with a hip-worn IMU (sampling at 256 Hz). Jump height was evaluated based on flight time. The mean IMU-derived jump height was 27.1 (SD 3.8) cm, and the corresponding mean jump-mat-derived value was 21.5 (3.4) cm. While a significant 26% mean difference was observed between the methods (5.5 [95% limits of agreement 2.2 to 8.9] cm, p = 0.006), the correspondence between methods was excellent (ICC = 0.89). The difference between methods was weakly positively associated with jump height (r = 0.28, P = 0.007). Take-off velocity derived jump height was also explored but produced only fair congruence. In conclusion, IMU-derived jump height exhibited excellent congruence to contact mat-based jump height and therefore presents a feasible alternative for jump height assessments in adolescents. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Test-retest reliability of jump execution variables using mechanography: a comparison of jump protocols.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzgerald, John S; Johnson, LuAnn; Tomkinson, Grant; Stein, Jesse; Roemmich, James N

2018-05-01

Mechanography during the vertical jump may enhance screening and determining mechanistic causes underlying physical performance changes. Utility of jump mechanography for evaluation is limited by scant test-retest reliability data on force-time variables. This study examined the test-retest reliability of eight jump execution variables assessed from mechanography. Thirty-two women (mean±SD: age 20.8 ± 1.3 yr) and 16 men (age 22.1 ± 1.9 yr) attended a familiarization session and two testing sessions, all one week apart. Participants performed two variations of the squat jump with squat depth self-selected and controlled using a goniometer to 80º knee flexion. Test-retest reliability was quantified as the systematic error (using effect size between jumps), random error (using coefficients of variation), and test-retest correlations (using intra-class correlation coefficients). Overall, jump execution variables demonstrated acceptable reliability, evidenced by small systematic errors (mean±95%CI: 0.2 ± 0.07), moderate random errors (mean±95%CI: 17.8 ± 3.7%), and very strong test-retest correlations (range: 0.73-0.97). Differences in random errors between controlled and self-selected protocols were negligible (mean±95%CI: 1.3 ± 2.3%). Jump execution variables demonstrated acceptable reliability, with no meaningful differences between the controlled and self-selected jump protocols. To simplify testing, a self-selected jump protocol can be used to assess force-time variables with negligible impact on measurement error.

Motoneuron membrane potentials follow a time inhomogeneous jump diffusion process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jahn, Patrick; Berg, Rune W; Hounsgaard, Jørn

2011-01-01

models can only be applied over short time windows. However, experimental data show varying time constants, state dependent noise, a graded firing threshold and time-inhomogeneous input. In the present study we build a jump diffusion model that incorporates these features, and introduce a firing...

Jump Horse Safety: Reconciling Public Debate and Australian Thoroughbred Jump Racing Data, 2012–2014

Science.gov (United States)

Ruse, Karen; Davison, Aidan; Bridle, Kerry

2015-01-01

Simple Summary This paper documents the dynamics of Australian thoroughbred jump racing in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons with the aim of informing debate about risks to horses and the future of this activity. We conclude that the safety of Australian jump racing has improved in recent years but that steeplechases are considerably riskier for horses than hurdle races. Abstract Thoroughbred jump racing sits in the spotlight of contemporary welfare and ethical debates about horse racing. In Australia, jump racing comprises hurdle and steeplechase races and has ceased in all but two states, Victoria and South Australia. This paper documents the size, geography, composition, and dynamics of Australian jump racing for the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons with a focus on debate about risks to horses. We found that the majority of Australian jump racing is regional, based in Victoria, and involves a small group of experienced trainers and jockeys. Australian jump horses are on average 6.4 years of age. The jump career of the majority of horses involves participating in three or less hurdle races and over one season. Almost one quarter of Australian jump horses race only once. There were ten horse fatalities in races over the study period, with an overall fatality rate of 5.1 fatalities per 1000 horses starting in a jump race (0.51%). There was significant disparity between the fatality rate for hurdles, 0.75 fatalities per 1000 starts (0.075%) and steeplechases, 14 fatalities per 1000 starts (1.4%). Safety initiatives introduced by regulators in 2010 appear to have significantly decreased risks to horses in hurdles but have had little or no effect in steeplechases. Our discussion considers these data in light of public controversy, political debate, and industry regulation related to jump horse safety. PMID:26506396

NONINVASIVE DETERMINATION OF KNEE CARTILAGE DEFORMATION DURING JUMPING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Djordje Kosanic

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this investigation was to use a combination of image processing, force measurements and finite element modeling to calculate deformation of the knee cartilage during jumping. Professional athletes performed jumps analyzed using a force plate and high-speed video camera system. Image processing was performed on each frame of video using a color recognition algorithm. A simplified mass-spring-damper model was utilized for determination of global force and moment on the knee. Custom software for fitting the coupling characteristics was created. Simulated results were used as input data for the finite element calculation of cartilage deformation in the athlete's knee. Computer simulation data was compared with the average experimental ground reaction forces. The results show the three-dimensional mechanical deformation distribution inside the cartilage volume. A combination of the image recognition technology, force plate measurements and the finite element cartilage deformation in the knee may be used in the future as an effective noninvasive tool for prediction of injury during jumping

Multiscale Hy3S: Hybrid stochastic simulation for supercomputers

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Kaznessis Yiannis N

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Stochastic simulation has become a useful tool to both study natural biological systems and design new synthetic ones. By capturing the intrinsic molecular fluctuations of "small" systems, these simulations produce a more accurate picture of single cell dynamics, including interesting phenomena missed by deterministic methods, such as noise-induced oscillations and transitions between stable states. However, the computational cost of the original stochastic simulation algorithm can be high, motivating the use of hybrid stochastic methods. Hybrid stochastic methods partition the system into multiple subsets and describe each subset as a different representation, such as a jump Markov, Poisson, continuous Markov, or deterministic process. By applying valid approximations and self-consistently merging disparate descriptions, a method can be considerably faster, while retaining accuracy. In this paper, we describe Hy3S, a collection of multiscale simulation programs. Results Building on our previous work on developing novel hybrid stochastic algorithms, we have created the Hy3S software package to enable scientists and engineers to both study and design extremely large well-mixed biological systems with many thousands of reactions and chemical species. We have added adaptive stochastic numerical integrators to permit the robust simulation of dynamically stiff biological systems. In addition, Hy3S has many useful features, including embarrassingly parallelized simulations with MPI; special discrete events, such as transcriptional and translation elongation and cell division; mid-simulation perturbations in both the number of molecules of species and reaction kinetic parameters; combinatorial variation of both initial conditions and kinetic parameters to enable sensitivity analysis; use of NetCDF optimized binary format to quickly read and write large datasets; and a simple graphical user interface, written in Matlab, to help users

Do Bilateral Vertical Jumps With Reactive Jump Landings Achieve Osteogenic Thresholds With and Without Instruction in Premenopausal Women?

Science.gov (United States)

Clissold, Tracey L; Winwood, Paul W; Cronin, John B; De Souza, Mary Jane

2018-04-01

Jumps have been investigated as a stimulus for bone development; however, effects of instruction, jump type, and jump-landing techniques need investigation. This study sought to identify whether ground reaction forces (GRFs) for bilateral vertical jumps (countermovement jumps and drop jumps) with reactive jump-landings (ie, jumping immediately after initial jump-landing), with instruction and with instruction withdrawn, achieve magnitudes and rates of strain previously shown to improve bone mass among premenopausal women. Twenty-one women (Mean ± SD: 43.3 ± 5.9 y; 69.4 ± 9.6 kg; 167 ± 5.5 cm; 27.5 ± 8.7% body fat) performed a testing session 'with instruction' followed by a testing session performed 1 week later with 'instruction withdrawn.' The magnitudes (4.59 to 5.49 body weight [BW]) and rates of strain (263 to 359 BW·s -1 ) for the jump-landings, performed on an AMTI force plate, exceeded previously determined thresholds (>3 BWs and >43 BW·s -1 ). Interestingly, significantly larger peak resultant forces, (↑10%; P = .002) and peak rates of force development (↑20%; P jump-landing (postreactive jump). Small increases (ES = 0.22-0.42) in all landing forces were observed in the second jump-landing with 'instruction withdrawn.' These jumps represent a unique training stimulus for premenopausal women and achieve osteogenic thresholds thought prerequisite for bone growth.

the Modeling of Hydraulic Jump Generated Partially on Sloping Apron

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shaker Abdulatif Jalil

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Modeling aims to characterize system behavior and achieve simulation close as possible of the reality. The rapid energy exchange in supercritical flow to generate quiet or subcritical flow in hydraulic jump phenomenon is important in design of hydraulic structures. Experimental and numerical modeling is done on type B hydraulic jump which starts first on sloping bed and its end on horizontal bed.  Four different apron slopes are used, for each one of these slopes the jump is generated on different locations by controlling the tail water depth.  Modelling validation is based on 120 experimental runs which they show that there is reliability. The air volume fraction which creates in through hydraulic jump varied between 0.18 and 0.28. While the energy exchanges process take place within 6.6, 6.1, 5.8, 5.5 of the average relative jump height for apron slopes of 0.18, 0.14, 0.10, 0.07 respectively. Within the limitations of this study, mathematical prediction model for relative hydraulic jump height is suggested.The model having an acceptable coefficient of determination.

Reversibility in Quantum Models of Stochastic Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Gier, David; Crutchfield, James; Mahoney, John; James, Ryan

Natural phenomena such as time series of neural firing, orientation of layers in crystal stacking and successive measurements in spin-systems are inherently probabilistic. The provably minimal classical models of such stochastic processes are ɛ-machines, which consist of internal states, transition probabilities between states and output values. The topological properties of the ɛ-machine for a given process characterize the structure, memory and patterns of that process. However ɛ-machines are often not ideal because their statistical complexity (Cμ) is demonstrably greater than the excess entropy (E) of the processes they represent. Quantum models (q-machines) of the same processes can do better in that their statistical complexity (Cq) obeys the relation Cμ >= Cq >= E. q-machines can be constructed to consider longer lengths of strings, resulting in greater compression. With code-words of sufficiently long length, the statistical complexity becomes time-symmetric - a feature apparently novel to this quantum representation. This result has ramifications for compression of classical information in quantum computing and quantum communication technology.

Jump Horse Safety: Reconciling Public Debate and Australian Thoroughbred Jump Racing Data, 2012–2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen Ruse

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Thoroughbred jump racing sits in the spotlight of contemporary welfare and ethical debates about horse racing. In Australia, jump racing comprises hurdle and steeplechase races and has ceased in all but two states, Victoria and South Australia. This paper documents the size, geography, composition, and dynamics of Australian jump racing for the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons with a focus on debate about risks to horses. We found that the majority of Australian jump racing is regional, based in Victoria, and involves a small group of experienced trainers and jockeys. Australian jump horses are on average 6.4 years of age. The jump career of the majority of horses involves participating in three or less hurdle races and over one season. Almost one quarter of Australian jump horses race only once. There were ten horse fatalities in races over the study period, with an overall fatality rate of 5.1 fatalities per 1000 horses starting in a jump race (0.51%. There was significant disparity between the fatality rate for hurdles, 0.75 fatalities per 1000 starts (0.075% and steeplechases, 14 fatalities per 1000 starts (1.4%. Safety initiatives introduced by regulators in 2010 appear to have significantly decreased risks to horses in hurdles but have had little or no effect in steeplechases. Our discussion considers these Animals 2015, 5 1073 data in light of public controversy, political debate, and industry regulation related to jump horse safety.

Stochastic evolutionary voluntary public goods game with punishment in a Quasi-birth-and-death process.

Science.gov (United States)

Quan, Ji; Liu, Wei; Chu, Yuqing; Wang, Xianjia

2017-11-23

Traditional replication dynamic model and the corresponding concept of evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) only takes into account whether the system can return to the equilibrium after being subjected to a small disturbance. In the real world, due to continuous noise, the ESS of the system may not be stochastically stable. In this paper, a model of voluntary public goods game with punishment is studied in a stochastic situation. Unlike the existing model, we describe the evolutionary process of strategies in the population as a generalized quasi-birth-and-death process. And we investigate the stochastic stable equilibrium (SSE) instead. By numerical experiments, we get all possible SSEs of the system for any combination of parameters, and investigate the influence of parameters on the probabilities of the system to select different equilibriums. It is found that in the stochastic situation, the introduction of the punishment and non-participation strategies can change the evolutionary dynamics of the system and equilibrium of the game. There is a large range of parameters that the system selects the cooperative states as its SSE with a high probability. This result provides us an insight and control method for the evolution of cooperation in the public goods game in stochastic situations.

Stochastic description of cascade size effects on phase stability under irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, G.; Bellon, P.

1988-01-01

Cascade size may affect phase stability under irradiation because of two distinct contributions: the replacement to displacement cross section ratio depends on the deposited energy density; ballistic jumps which tend to disorder ordere compounds occur by bursts (of size b), while thermal jumps which restored long range order occur one by one. The latter effect cannot be handled by standard rate theory. A stochastic treatment of the problem, based on a Fokker Planck approximation of the relevant master equation is summarized. It is shown that the possible values of the long range order parameter under irradiation are not affected by the size b of the bursts, but that the respective stability of the former is b dependent. As a consequence, the stability diagram of phases under irradiation varies with b. Such a diagram is computed for the Ni 4 Mo system where three structures are competing: the disordered solid solution, D1 a and DO 23 . A broadening by 100K of the stability domain of the short range ordered structure to the expense of the long range ordered one is predicted when increasing b from 1 to 100. The stochastic potentials introduced in the present treatment are by no means free energies of some constrained state. They can however be computed in a mean field type approximation. 23 refs

Variation in free jumping technique within and among horses with little experience in show jumping

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Santamaria, S.; Bobbert, M.F.; Back, W.; Barneveld, A.; van Weeren, P.R.

2004-01-01

Objective - To quantify variation in the jumping technique within and among young horses with little jumping experience, establish relationships between kinetic and kinematic variables, and identify a limited set of variables characteristic for detecting differences in jumping performance among

Validity of a Jump Mat for assessing Countermovement Jump Performance in Elite Rugby Players.

Science.gov (United States)

Dobbin, Nick; Hunwicks, Richard; Highton, Jamie; Twist, Craig

2017-02-01

This study determined the validity of the Just Jump System ® (JJS) for measuring flight time, jump height and peak power output (PPO) in elite rugby league players. 37 elite rugby league players performed 6 countermovement jumps (CMJ; 3 with and 3 without arms) on a jump mat and force platform. A sub-sample (n=28) was used to cross-validate the equations for flight time, jump height and PPO. The JJS systematically overestimated flight time and jump height compared to the force platform (Pjump height ( with R 2 =0.945; without R 2 =0.987). Our equations revealed no systematic difference between corrected and force platform scores and an improved the agreement for flight time (Ratio limits of agreement: with 1.00 vs. 1.36; without 1.00 vs. 1.16) and jump height ( with 1.01 vs. 1.34; without 1.01 vs. 1.15), meaning that our equations can be used to correct JJS scores for elite rugby players. While our equation improved the estimation of PPO ( with 1.02; without 1.01) compared to existing equations (Harman: 1.20; Sayers: 1.04), this only accounted for 64 and 69% of PPO. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

An algorithm to remove fringe jumps and its application to microwave reflectometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ejiri, A.; Kawahata, K.; Shinohara, K.

1997-01-01

In some plasma discharges, the phase measured by microwave reflectometry has many fringe (2π radians) jumps. A new algorithm to detect and remove fringe jumps has been developed, and applied to the data in the JIPP TII-U tokamak. Using this algorithm, quantitative properties of fringe jumps, and their effects on the analysis of phase fluctuations are investigated. It was found that the occurrence of fringe jumps obeys a Poisson process, and the time scale of jumps is distributed over a wide range. Fringe jumps affect mainly the low-frequency components of phase fluctuations. Comparison of the phase corrected by the algorithm and the phase calculated from the time smoothed signals indicates that time smoothing (or frequency filtering) is an effective way to obtain information concerning the macroscopic density profile. Fringe jump and phase runaway can be phenomenologically explained by the distribution of the complex amplitude of the reflected wave. (author)

SARS – virus jumps species

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

SARS – virus jumps species. Coronavirus reshuffles genes; Rotteir et al, Rotterdam showed the virus to jump from cats to mouse cells after single gene mutation ? Human disease due to virus jumping from wild or domestic animals; Present favourite animal - the cat; - edible or domestic.

Increase in Jumping Height Associated with Maximal Effort Vertical Depth Jumps.

Science.gov (United States)

Bedi, John F.; And Others

1987-01-01

In order to assess if there existed a statistically significant increase in jumping performance when dropping from different heights, 32 males, aged 19 to 26, performed a series of maximal effort vertical jumps after dropping from eight heights onto a force plate. Results are analyzed. (Author/MT)

Disentangling mechanisms that mediate the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes in microbial succession.

Science.gov (United States)

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão

2015-03-17

Ecological succession and the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes are two major themes within microbial ecology, but these conceptual domains have mostly developed independent of each other. Here we provide a framework that integrates shifts in community assembly processes with microbial primary succession to better understand mechanisms governing the stochastic/deterministic balance. Synthesizing previous work, we devised a conceptual model that links ecosystem development to alternative hypotheses related to shifts in ecological assembly processes. Conceptual model hypotheses were tested by coupling spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions in a salt marsh chronosequence spanning 105 years of succession. Analyses within successional stages showed community composition to be initially governed by stochasticity, but as succession proceeded, there was a progressive increase in deterministic selection correlated with increasing sodium concentration. Analyses of community turnover among successional stages--which provide a larger spatiotemporal scale relative to within stage analyses--revealed that changes in the concentration of soil organic matter were the main predictor of the type and relative influence of determinism. Taken together, these results suggest scale-dependency in the mechanisms underlying selection. To better understand mechanisms governing these patterns, we developed an ecological simulation model that revealed how changes in selective environments cause shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. Finally, we propose an extended--and experimentally testable--conceptual model integrating ecological assembly processes with primary and secondary succession. This framework provides a priori hypotheses for future experiments, thereby facilitating a systematic approach to understand assembly and succession in microbial communities across ecosystems.

What are quantum jumps?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, R.J.

1988-01-01

This paper answers the title question by giving an operational definition of quantum jumps based on measurement theory. This definition forms the basis of a theory of quantum jumps which leads to a number of testable predictions. Experiments are proposed to test the theory. The suggested experiments also test the quantum Zeno paradox, i.e., they test the proposition that frequent observation of a quantum system inhibits quantum jumps in that system. (orig.)

Stochastic processes in mechanical engineering

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwers, J.J.H.

2006-01-01

Stochastic or random vibrations occur in a variety of applications of mechanicalengineering. Examples are: the dynamics of a vehicle on an irregular roadsurface; the variation in time of thermodynamic variables in municipal wasteincinerators due to fluctuations in heating value of the waste; the

Stochastic Differential Equation Models for the Price of European CO2 Emissions Allowances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wugan Cai

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Understanding the stochastic nature of emissions allowances is crucial for risk management in emissions trading markets. In this study, we discuss the emissions allowances spot price within the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme: Powernext and European Climate Exchange. To compare the fitness of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs to the European Union allowances spot price, we apply regression theory to obtain the point and interval estimations for the parameters of the SDEs. An empirical evaluation demonstrates that the mean reverting square root process (MRSRP has the best fitness of five SDEs to forecast the spot price. To reduce the degree of smog, we develop a new trading scheme in which firms have to hand many more allowances to the government when they emit one unit of air pollution on heavy pollution days, versus one allowance on clean days. Thus, we set up the SDE MRSRP model with Markovian switching to analyse the evolution of the spot price in such a scheme. The analysis shows that the allowances spot price will not jump too much in the new scheme. The findings of this study could contribute to developing a new type of emissions trading.

Stationary stochastic processes for scientists and engineers

CERN Document Server

Lindgren, Georg; Sandsten, Maria

2013-01-01

""This book is designed for a first course in stationary stochastic processes in science and engineering and does a very good job in introducing many concepts and ideas to students in these fields. … the book has probably been tested in the classroom many times, which also manifests itself in its virtual lack of typos. … Another great feature of the book is that it contains a wealth of worked example from many different fields. These help clarify concepts and theorems and I believe students will appreciate them-I certainly did. … The book is well suited for a one-semester course as it contains

METRIC TESTS CHARACTERISTIC FOR ESTIMATING JUMPING FOR VOLLEYBALL PLAYERS

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Toplica Stojanović

2008-08-01

Full Text Available With goal to establish metric tests characteristics for estimating jumping for volleyball players, it was organized a pilot research on pattern of 23 volleyball players from cadet team and 23 students from high-school. For needs of this research four tests are valid for estimation, jump in block with left and right leg and jump in spike with left and right leg. Each test has been taken three times, so that we could with test-re test method determine their reliability, and with factor analysis their validity. Data were processed by multivariate analysis (item analysis, factor analysis from statistical package „Statistica 6.0 for windows“. On the results of research and discussion we can say that the tests had high coefficient of reliability, as well as factor validity, and these tests can be used to estimate jumping for volleyball players.

An extension of clarke's model with stochastic amplitude flip processes

KAUST Repository

Hoel, Hakon

2014-07-01

Stochastic modeling is an essential tool for studying statistical properties of wireless channels. In multipath fading channel (MFC) models, the signal reception is modeled by a sum of wave path contributions, and Clarke\\'s model is an important example of such which has been widely accepted in many wireless applications. However, since Clarke\\'s model is temporally deterministic, Feng and Field noted that it does not model real wireless channels with time-varying randomness well. Here, we extend Clarke\\'s model to a novel time-varying stochastic MFC model with scatterers randomly flipping on and off. Statistical properties of the MFC model are analyzed and shown to fit well with real signal measurements, and a limit Gaussian process is derived from the model when the number of active wave paths tends to infinity. A second focus of this work is a comparison study of the error and computational cost of generating signal realizations from the MFC model and from its limit Gaussian process. By rigorous analysis and numerical studies, we show that in many settings, signal realizations are generated more efficiently by Gaussian process algorithms than by the MFC model\\'s algorithm. Numerical examples that strengthen these observations are also presented. © 2014 IEEE.

Detected-jump-error-correcting quantum codes, quantum error designs, and quantum computation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alber, G.; Mussinger, M.; Beth, Th.; Charnes, Ch.; Delgado, A.; Grassl, M.

2003-01-01

The recently introduced detected-jump-correcting quantum codes are capable of stabilizing qubit systems against spontaneous decay processes arising from couplings to statistically independent reservoirs. These embedded quantum codes exploit classical information about which qubit has emitted spontaneously and correspond to an active error-correcting code embedded in a passive error-correcting code. The construction of a family of one-detected-jump-error-correcting quantum codes is shown and the optimal redundancy, encoding, and recovery as well as general properties of detected-jump-error-correcting quantum codes are discussed. By the use of design theory, multiple-jump-error-correcting quantum codes can be constructed. The performance of one-jump-error-correcting quantum codes under nonideal conditions is studied numerically by simulating a quantum memory and Grover's algorithm

Simulation of multivariate stationary stochastic processes using dimension-reduction representation methods

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zenghui; Peng, Yongbo

2018-03-01

In view of the Fourier-Stieltjes integral formula of multivariate stationary stochastic processes, a unified formulation accommodating spectral representation method (SRM) and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is deduced. By introducing random functions as constraints correlating the orthogonal random variables involved in the unified formulation, the dimension-reduction spectral representation method (DR-SRM) and the dimension-reduction proper orthogonal decomposition (DR-POD) are addressed. The proposed schemes are capable of representing the multivariate stationary stochastic process with a few elementary random variables, bypassing the challenges of high-dimensional random variables inherent in the conventional Monte Carlo methods. In order to accelerate the numerical simulation, the technique of Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) is integrated with the proposed schemes. For illustrative purposes, the simulation of horizontal wind velocity field along the deck of a large-span bridge is proceeded using the proposed methods containing 2 and 3 elementary random variables. Numerical simulation reveals the usefulness of the dimension-reduction representation methods.

Realized Jump Risk and Equity Return in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guojin Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We utilize the realized jump components to explore a new jump (including nonsystematic jump and systematic jump risk factor model. After estimating daily realized jumps from high-frequency transaction data of the Chinese A-share stocks, we calculate monthly jump size, monthly jump standard deviation, and monthly jump arrival rate and then use those monthly jump factors to explain the return of the following month. Our empirical results show that the jump tail risk can explain the equity return. For the large capital-size stocks, large cap stock portfolios, and index, one-month lagged jump risk factor significantly explains the asset return variation. Our results remain the same even when we add the size and value factors in the robustness tests.

A mixed methods process evaluation of the implementation of JUMP-in, a multilevel school-based intervention aimed at physical activity promotion.

Science.gov (United States)

de Meij, Judith S B; van der Wal, Marcel F; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai J M

2013-09-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate factors influencing the adoption, implementation, and institutionalization process of JUMP-in-a multilevel school-based physical activity promotion program-to optimize the dissemination of the intervention and improve its effectiveness. The process evaluation concerned the constraints and success and failure factors at sociopolitical, organizational, user, and intervention levels. A mixed methods approach including qualitative and quantitative data was conducted during two school years (2006-2008). JUMP-in was successfully embedded in the Amsterdam municipal policy and in the organizational structure and daily practices of the sectors involved. A general impeding factor was the complexity of the multilevel programme requiring multidisciplinary collaboration between organizations. In addition, there was a discrepancy between the recommendation to standardize and simplify the innovation and the need to tailor the strategies to local environmental, social, and cultural aspects. This process evaluation provides challenges and remedies for managing discrepancies between prerequisites for an effective innovation and demands of daily implementation practice. The main recommendations are (a) standardized, simplified guidelines; (b) stepwise implementation; (c) formalized coalitions, integration of policy, and synchronization of tasks and protocols; and (d) smart planning and control by clear communication and feedback instruments. If these recommendations are incorporated into the JUMP-in intervention and organization, increased effectiveness and long-term effects can be expected.

Longitudinal functional principal component modelling via Stochastic Approximation Monte Carlo

KAUST Repository

Martinez, Josue G.

2010-06-01

The authors consider the analysis of hierarchical longitudinal functional data based upon a functional principal components approach. In contrast to standard frequentist approaches to selecting the number of principal components, the authors do model averaging using a Bayesian formulation. A relatively straightforward reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo formulation has poor mixing properties and in simulated data often becomes trapped at the wrong number of principal components. In order to overcome this, the authors show how to apply Stochastic Approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) to this problem, a method that has the potential to explore the entire space and does not become trapped in local extrema. The combination of reversible jump methods and SAMC in hierarchical longitudinal functional data is simplified by a polar coordinate representation of the principal components. The approach is easy to implement and does well in simulated data in determining the distribution of the number of principal components, and in terms of its frequentist estimation properties. Empirical applications are also presented.

Stochastic Evolution Dynamic of the Rock-Scissors-Paper Game Based on a Quasi Birth and Death Process.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Qian; Fang, Debin; Zhang, Xiaoling; Jin, Chen; Ren, Qiyu

2016-06-27

Stochasticity plays an important role in the evolutionary dynamic of cyclic dominance within a finite population. To investigate the stochastic evolution process of the behaviour of bounded rational individuals, we model the Rock-Scissors-Paper (RSP) game as a finite, state dependent Quasi Birth and Death (QBD) process. We assume that bounded rational players can adjust their strategies by imitating the successful strategy according to the payoffs of the last round of the game, and then analyse the limiting distribution of the QBD process for the game stochastic evolutionary dynamic. The numerical experiments results are exhibited as pseudo colour ternary heat maps. Comparisons of these diagrams shows that the convergence property of long run equilibrium of the RSP game in populations depends on population size and the parameter of the payoff matrix and noise factor. The long run equilibrium is asymptotically stable, neutrally stable and unstable respectively according to the normalised parameters in the payoff matrix. Moreover, the results show that the distribution probability becomes more concentrated with a larger population size. This indicates that increasing the population size also increases the convergence speed of the stochastic evolution process while simultaneously reducing the influence of the noise factor.

Aboveground and belowground arthropods experience different relative influences of stochastic versus deterministic community assembly processes following disturbance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott Ferrenberg

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Background Understanding patterns of biodiversity is a longstanding challenge in ecology. Similar to other biotic groups, arthropod community structure can be shaped by deterministic and stochastic processes, with limited understanding of what moderates the relative influence of these processes. Disturbances have been noted to alter the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes on community assembly in various study systems, implicating ecological disturbances as a potential moderator of these forces. Methods Using a disturbance gradient along a 5-year chronosequence of insect-induced tree mortality in a subalpine forest of the southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA, we examined changes in community structure and relative influences of deterministic and stochastic processes in the assembly of aboveground (surface and litter-active species and belowground (species active in organic and mineral soil layers arthropod communities. Arthropods were sampled for all years of the chronosequence via pitfall traps (aboveground community and modified Winkler funnels (belowground community and sorted to morphospecies. Community structure of both communities were assessed via comparisons of morphospecies abundance, diversity, and composition. Assembly processes were inferred from a mixture of linear models and matrix correlations testing for community associations with environmental properties, and from null-deviation models comparing observed vs. expected levels of species turnover (Beta diversity among samples. Results Tree mortality altered community structure in both aboveground and belowground arthropod communities, but null models suggested that aboveground communities experienced greater relative influences of deterministic processes, while the relative influence of stochastic processes increased for belowground communities. Additionally, Mantel tests and linear regression models revealed significant associations between the

Aboveground and belowground arthropods experience different relative influences of stochastic versus deterministic community assembly processes following disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Alexander S.; Faist, Akasha M.

2016-01-01

Background Understanding patterns of biodiversity is a longstanding challenge in ecology. Similar to other biotic groups, arthropod community structure can be shaped by deterministic and stochastic processes, with limited understanding of what moderates the relative influence of these processes. Disturbances have been noted to alter the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes on community assembly in various study systems, implicating ecological disturbances as a potential moderator of these forces. Methods Using a disturbance gradient along a 5-year chronosequence of insect-induced tree mortality in a subalpine forest of the southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA, we examined changes in community structure and relative influences of deterministic and stochastic processes in the assembly of aboveground (surface and litter-active species) and belowground (species active in organic and mineral soil layers) arthropod communities. Arthropods were sampled for all years of the chronosequence via pitfall traps (aboveground community) and modified Winkler funnels (belowground community) and sorted to morphospecies. Community structure of both communities were assessed via comparisons of morphospecies abundance, diversity, and composition. Assembly processes were inferred from a mixture of linear models and matrix correlations testing for community associations with environmental properties, and from null-deviation models comparing observed vs. expected levels of species turnover (Beta diversity) among samples. Results Tree mortality altered community structure in both aboveground and belowground arthropod communities, but null models suggested that aboveground communities experienced greater relative influences of deterministic processes, while the relative influence of stochastic processes increased for belowground communities. Additionally, Mantel tests and linear regression models revealed significant associations between the aboveground arthropod

Quantitative sociodynamics stochastic methods and models of social interaction processes

CERN Document Server

Helbing, Dirk

1995-01-01

Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioural changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics but they have very often proved their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces the most important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches a very fundamental dynamic model is obtained which seems to open new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models as special cases, e.g. the log...

Quantitative Sociodynamics Stochastic Methods and Models of Social Interaction Processes

CERN Document Server

Helbing, Dirk

2010-01-01

This new edition of Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioral changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics and mathematics, but they have very often proven their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences as well. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (e.g. synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches, a fundamental dynamic model is obtained, which opens new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models a...

Brownian motion and stochastic calculus

CERN Document Server

Karatzas, Ioannis

1998-01-01

This book is designed as a text for graduate courses in stochastic processes. It is written for readers familiar with measure-theoretic probability and discrete-time processes who wish to explore stochastic processes in continuous time. The vehicle chosen for this exposition is Brownian motion, which is presented as the canonical example of both a martingale and a Markov process with continuous paths. In this context, the theory of stochastic integration and stochastic calculus is developed. The power of this calculus is illustrated by results concerning representations of martingales and change of measure on Wiener space, and these in turn permit a presentation of recent advances in financial economics (option pricing and consumption/investment optimization). This book contains a detailed discussion of weak and strong solutions of stochastic differential equations and a study of local time for semimartingales, with special emphasis on the theory of Brownian local time. The text is complemented by a large num...

A stochastic model for stationary dynamics of prices in real estate markets. A case of random intensity for Poisson moments of prices changes

Science.gov (United States)

Rusakov, Oleg; Laskin, Michael

2017-06-01

We consider a stochastic model of changes of prices in real estate markets. We suppose that in a book of prices the changes happen in points of jumps of a Poisson process with a random intensity, i.e. moments of changes sequently follow to a random process of the Cox process type. We calculate cumulative mathematical expectations and variances for the random intensity of this point process. In the case that the process of random intensity is a martingale the cumulative variance has a linear grows. We statistically process a number of observations of real estate prices and accept hypotheses of a linear grows for estimations as well for cumulative average, as for cumulative variance both for input and output prises that are writing in the book of prises.

Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

2014-11-12

The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

Stationary and related stochastic processes sample function properties and their applications

CERN Document Server

Cramér, Harald

2004-01-01

This graduate-level text offers a comprehensive account of the general theory of stationary processes, with special emphasis on the properties of sample functions. Assuming a familiarity with the basic features of modern probability theory, the text develops the foundations of the general theory of stochastic processes, examines processes with a continuous-time parameter, and applies the general theory to procedures key to the study of stationary processes. Additional topics include analytic properties of the sample functions and the problem of time distribution of the intersections between a

Measurement of K-shell absorption jump factors and jump ratios in some lanthanide elements using EDXRF technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polat, Recep; İçelli, Orhan; Yalçın, Zeynel; Pesen, Erhan; Orak, Salim

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Mass attenuation coefficients, jump factor and jump ratio for lanthanide elements are obtained. ► The method used in this experiment is combined both transmission and scattering geometry. ► Secondary gamma rays energy is 59.5 keV. ► Experimental values of jump factor and jump ratio for K shell are new. ► The experimental values are in good agreement with those calculated theoretically. - Abstract: 59.5 keV gamma rays scattered by an aluminum foil have been used as a radiation source to measure the absorption jump factor and jump ratios for absorbers Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu and Tb. The theoretical and experimental values are compared with the corresponding ones in the literature

BPS Jumping Loci are Automorphic

Science.gov (United States)

Kachru, Shamit; Tripathy, Arnav

2018-06-01

We show that BPS jumping loci-loci in the moduli space of string compactifications where the number of BPS states jumps in an upper semi-continuous manner—naturally appear as Fourier coefficients of (vector space-valued) automorphic forms. For the case of T 2 compactification, the jumping loci are governed by a modular form studied by Hirzebruch and Zagier, while the jumping loci in K3 compactification appear in a story developed by Oda and Kudla-Millson in arithmetic geometry. We also comment on some curious related automorphy in the physics of black hole attractors and flux vacua.

A Stochastic Maximum Principle for a Stochastic Differential Game of a Mean-Field Type

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hosking, John Joseph Absalom, E-mail: j.j.a.hosking@cma.uio.no [University of Oslo, Centre of Mathematics for Applications (CMA) (Norway)

2012-12-15

We construct a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) which provides necessary conditions for the existence of Nash equilibria in a certain form of N-agent stochastic differential game (SDG) of a mean-field type. The information structure considered for the SDG is of a possible asymmetric and partial type. To prove our SMP we take an approach based on spike-variations and adjoint representation techniques, analogous to that of S. Peng (SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4):966-979, 1990) in the optimal stochastic control context. In our proof we apply adjoint representation procedures at three points. The first-order adjoint processes are defined as solutions to certain mean-field backward stochastic differential equations, and second-order adjoint processes of a first type are defined as solutions to certain backward stochastic differential equations. Second-order adjoint processes of a second type are defined as solutions of certain backward stochastic equations of a type that we introduce in this paper, and which we term conditional mean-field backward stochastic differential equations. From the resulting representations, we show that the terms relating to these second-order adjoint processes of the second type are of an order such that they do not appear in our final SMP equations. A comparable situation exists in an article by R. Buckdahn, B. Djehiche, and J. Li (Appl. Math. Optim. 64(2):197-216, 2011) that constructs a SMP for a mean-field type optimal stochastic control problem; however, the approach we take of using these second-order adjoint processes of a second type to deal with the type of terms that we refer to as the second form of quadratic-type terms represents an alternative to a development, to our setting, of the approach used in their article for their analogous type of term.

A Stochastic Maximum Principle for a Stochastic Differential Game of a Mean-Field Type

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosking, John Joseph Absalom

2012-01-01

We construct a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) which provides necessary conditions for the existence of Nash equilibria in a certain form of N-agent stochastic differential game (SDG) of a mean-field type. The information structure considered for the SDG is of a possible asymmetric and partial type. To prove our SMP we take an approach based on spike-variations and adjoint representation techniques, analogous to that of S. Peng (SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4):966–979, 1990) in the optimal stochastic control context. In our proof we apply adjoint representation procedures at three points. The first-order adjoint processes are defined as solutions to certain mean-field backward stochastic differential equations, and second-order adjoint processes of a first type are defined as solutions to certain backward stochastic differential equations. Second-order adjoint processes of a second type are defined as solutions of certain backward stochastic equations of a type that we introduce in this paper, and which we term conditional mean-field backward stochastic differential equations. From the resulting representations, we show that the terms relating to these second-order adjoint processes of the second type are of an order such that they do not appear in our final SMP equations. A comparable situation exists in an article by R. Buckdahn, B. Djehiche, and J. Li (Appl. Math. Optim. 64(2):197–216, 2011) that constructs a SMP for a mean-field type optimal stochastic control problem; however, the approach we take of using these second-order adjoint processes of a second type to deal with the type of terms that we refer to as the second form of quadratic-type terms represents an alternative to a development, to our setting, of the approach used in their article for their analogous type of term.

Site occupation of indium and jump frequencies of cadmium in FeGa{sub 3}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newhouse, Randal; Collins, Gary S. [Washington State University, Department of Physics and Astronomy (United States); Zacate, Matthew O., E-mail: zacatem1@nku.edu [Northern Kentucky University, Department of Physics, Geology, and Engineering Technology (United States)

2016-12-15

Perturbed angular correlation (PAC) measurements using the In-111 probe were carried out on FeGa{sub 3} as part of a broader investigation of indium site occupation and cadmium diffusion in intermetallic compounds. One PAC signal was observed with hyperfine parameters ω{sub 1}= 513.8(1) Mrad/s and η= 0.939(2) at room temperature. By comparison with quadrupole frequencies observed in PAC measurements on isostructural RuIn{sub 3}, it was determined that indium occupies only the 8j site in the FeGa{sub 3} structure, denoted Ga(2) below because two out of the three Ga sites have this point symmetry. PAC spectra at elevated temperature exhibited damping characteristic of electric field gradients (EFGs) that fluctuate as Cd probes jump among Ga(2) sites within the lifetime of the excited PAC level. A stochastic model for the EFG fluctuations based on four conceivable, single-step jump-pathways connecting one Ga(2) site to neighboring Ga(2) sites was developed and used to fit PAC spectra. The four pathways lead to two observable EFG reorientation rates, and these reorientation rates were found to be strongly dependent on EFG orientation. Calculations using density functional theory were used to reduce the number of unknowns in the model with respect to EFG orientation. This made it possible to determine with reasonable precision the total jump rate of Cd among Ga(2) sites that correspond to a change in mirror plane orientation of site-symmetry. This total jump rate was found to be thermally activated with an activation enthalpy of 1.8 ±0.1 eV.

Optimal Ski Jump

Science.gov (United States)

Rebilas, Krzysztof

2013-01-01

Consider a skier who goes down a takeoff ramp, attains a speed "V", and jumps, attempting to land as far as possible down the hill below (Fig. 1). At the moment of takeoff the angle between the skier's velocity and the horizontal is [alpha]. What is the optimal angle [alpha] that makes the jump the longest possible for the fixed magnitude of the…

Stochastic Pi-calculus Revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cardelli, Luca; Mardare, Radu Iulian

2013-01-01

We develop a version of stochastic Pi-calculus with a semantics based on measure theory. We dene the behaviour of a process in a rate environment using measures over the measurable space of processes induced by structural congruence. We extend the stochastic bisimulation to include the concept of...

Balance in Astronauts Performing Jumps, Walking and Quiet Stance Following Spaceflight

Science.gov (United States)

Reschke, Millard F.; Bloomberg, J. J.; Wood, S. J.; Harm, D. L.

2011-01-01

Introduction: Both balance and locomotor ataxia is severe in astronauts returning from spaceflight with serious implications for unassisted landings. As a part of an ongoing effort to demonstrate the functional significance of the postflight ataxia problem our laboratory has evaluated jumping, walking heel-to-toe and quite stance balance immediately following spaceflight. Methods: Six astronauts from 12-16 day flights and three from 6-month flights were asked to perform three self-initiated two-footed jumps from a 30-cm-high platform, walking for 10 steps (three trials) placing the feet heel to toe in tandem, arms folded across the chest and the eyes closed, and lastly, recover from a simulated fall by standing from a prone position on the floor and with eyes open maintain a quiet stance for 3 min with arms relaxed along the side of the body and feet comfortably positioned on a force plate. Crewmembers were tested twice before flight, on landing day (short-duration), and days 1, 6, and 30 following all flight durations. Results/Conclusions: Many of astronauts tested fell on their first postflight jump but recovered by the third jump showing a rapid learning progression. Changes in take-off strategy were clearly evident in duration of time in the air between the platform and the ground (significant reduction in time to land), and also in increased asymmetry in foot latencies on take-off postflight. During the tandem heel-to-toe walking task there was a significant decrease in percentage of correct steps on landing day (short-duration crew) and on first day following landing (long-duration) with only partial recovery the following day. Astronauts for both short and long duration flight times appeared to be unaware of foot position relative to their bodies or the floor. During quite stance most of crewmembers tested exhibited increased stochastic activity (larger short-term COP diffusion coefficients postflight in all planes and increases in mean sway speed).

CONNECTION OF FUNCTIONAL ABILITIES WITH JUMPING AND THROWING ATHLETIC DISCIPLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Igor Stanojević

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the connection between functional abilities with results of jumping and throwing athletic disciplines with athletes. The sample was taken from a population of elementary school students from Prokuplje region, 13 and 14 old, included in regular physical education classes. The sample consisted of 200 male athletes involved in the training process in sports clubs at least three times a week in addition to physical education classes. For assessment of functional abilities six functional tests were used: resting heart rate, Cooper test, heart rate in the first minute after Cooper test, heart rate in the second minute after Cooper test, systolic arterial blood pressure, diastolic arterial blood pressure. For assessment of jumping and throwing athletic disciplines four tests were used: long jump, high jump, shot put and javelin. Data analysis was performed with canonical correlation and regression analysis. The results showed a statistically significant correlation between functional abilities with all of tests in jumping and throwing athletic disciplines.

Applied probability and stochastic processes. 2. ed.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feldman, Richard M. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Industrial and Systems Engineering Dept.; Valdez-Flores, Ciriaco [Sielken and Associates Consulting, Inc., Bryan, TX (United States)

2010-07-01

This book presents applied probability and stochastic processes in an elementary but mathematically precise manner, with numerous examples and exercises to illustrate the range of engineering and science applications of the concepts. The book is designed to give the reader an intuitive understanding of probabilistic reasoning, in addition to an understanding of mathematical concepts and principles. The initial chapters present a summary of probability and statistics and then Poisson processes, Markov chains, Markov processes and queuing processes are introduced. Advanced topics include simulation, inventory theory, replacement theory, Markov decision theory, and the use of matrix geometric procedures in the analysis of queues. Included in the second edition are appendices at the end of several chapters giving suggestions for the use of Excel in solving the problems of the chapter. Also new in this edition are an introductory chapter on statistics and a chapter on Poisson processes that includes some techniques used in risk assessment. The old chapter on queues has been expanded and broken into two new chapters: one for simple queuing processes and one for queuing networks. Support is provided through the web site http://apsp.tamu.edu where students will have the answers to odd numbered problems and instructors will have access to full solutions and Excel files for homework. (orig.)

Ski jumping boots limit effective take-off in ski jumping.

Science.gov (United States)

Virmavirta, M; Komi, P V

2001-12-01

In this study, we measured the vertical and horizontal take-off forces, plantar pressures and activation patterns of four muscles (vastus lateralis, gluteus maximus, tibialis anterior, gastrocnemius) in 10 ski jumpers in simulated laboratory conditions when wearing either training shoes or ski jumping boots. We found significant differences in vertical (P boots condition resulted in a smaller displacement in the final position of the following joint angles: ankle angle (P knee angle (P boots condition, significantly more pressure was recorded under the heel (P knee and hip extensors when wearing jumping boots. We conclude that the stiffness of the structure of the jumping boots may result in a forward shift of pressure, thus limiting the effective vertical force. To avoid this pressure shift, the pattern of movement of simulated take-offs should be carefully controlled, particularly when wearing training shoes.

Stochastic process corrosion growth models for pipeline reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bazán, Felipe Alexander Vargas; Beck, André Teófilo

2013-01-01

Highlights: •Novel non-linear stochastic process corrosion growth model is proposed. •Corrosion rate modeled as random Poisson pulses. •Time to corrosion initiation and inherent time-variability properly represented. •Continuous corrosion growth histories obtained. •Model is shown to precisely fit actual corrosion data at two time points. -- Abstract: Linear random variable corrosion models are extensively employed in reliability analysis of pipelines. However, linear models grossly neglect well-known characteristics of the corrosion process. Herein, a non-linear model is proposed, where corrosion rate is represented as a Poisson square wave process. The resulting model represents inherent time-variability of corrosion growth, produces continuous growth and leads to mean growth at less-than-one power of time. Different corrosion models are adjusted to the same set of actual corrosion data for two inspections. The proposed non-linear random process corrosion growth model leads to the best fit to the data, while better representing problem physics

Quantum stochastic calculus associated with quadratic quantum noises

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ji, Un Cig; Sinha, Kalyan B.

2016-01-01

We first study a class of fundamental quantum stochastic processes induced by the generators of a six dimensional non-solvable Lie †-algebra consisting of all linear combinations of the generalized Gross Laplacian and its adjoint, annihilation operator, creation operator, conservation, and time, and then we study the quantum stochastic integrals associated with the class of fundamental quantum stochastic processes, and the quantum Itô formula is revisited. The existence and uniqueness of solution of a quantum stochastic differential equation is proved. The unitarity conditions of solutions of quantum stochastic differential equations associated with the fundamental processes are examined. The quantum stochastic calculus extends the Hudson-Parthasarathy quantum stochastic calculus

Quantum stochastic calculus associated with quadratic quantum noises

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ji, Un Cig, E-mail: uncigji@chungbuk.ac.kr [Department of Mathematics, Research Institute of Mathematical Finance, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju, Chungbuk 28644 (Korea, Republic of); Sinha, Kalyan B., E-mail: kbs-jaya@yahoo.co.in [Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur, Bangalore-64, India and Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore-12 (India)

2016-02-15

We first study a class of fundamental quantum stochastic processes induced by the generators of a six dimensional non-solvable Lie †-algebra consisting of all linear combinations of the generalized Gross Laplacian and its adjoint, annihilation operator, creation operator, conservation, and time, and then we study the quantum stochastic integrals associated with the class of fundamental quantum stochastic processes, and the quantum Itô formula is revisited. The existence and uniqueness of solution of a quantum stochastic differential equation is proved. The unitarity conditions of solutions of quantum stochastic differential equations associated with the fundamental processes are examined. The quantum stochastic calculus extends the Hudson-Parthasarathy quantum stochastic calculus.

Set-Valued Stochastic Lebesque Integral and Representation Theorems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jungang Li

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we shall firstly illustrate why we should introduce set-valued stochastic integrals, and then we shall discuss some properties of set-valued stochastic processes and the relation between a set-valued stochastic process and its selection set. After recalling the Aumann type definition of stochastic integral, we shall introduce a new definition of Lebesgue integral of a set-valued stochastic process with respect to the time t . Finally we shall prove the presentation theorem of set-valued stochastic integral and dis- cuss further properties that will be useful to study set-valued stochastic differential equations with their applications.

Control strategy of maximum vertical jumps: The preferred countermovement depth may not be fully optimized for jump height

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mandic Radivoj

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to explore the control strategy of maximum countermovement jumps regarding the preferred countermovement depth preceding the concentric jump phase. Elite basketball players and physically active non-athletes were tested on the jumps performed with and without an arm swing, while the countermovement depth was varied within the interval of almost 30 cm around its preferred value. The results consistently revealed 5.1-11.2 cm smaller countermovement depth than the optimum one, but the same difference was more prominent in non-athletes. In addition, although the same differences revealed a marked effect on the recorded force and power output, they reduced jump height for only 0.1-1.2 cm. Therefore, the studied control strategy may not be based solely on the countermovement depth that maximizes jump height. In addition, the comparison of the two groups does not support the concept of a dual-task strategy based on the trade-off between maximizing jump height and minimizing the jumping quickness that should be more prominent in the athletes that routinely need to jump quickly. Further research could explore whether the observed phenomenon is based on other optimization principles, such as the minimization of effort and energy expenditure. Nevertheless, future routine testing procedures should take into account that the control strategy of maximum countermovement jumps is not fully based on maximizing the jump height, while the countermovement depth markedly confound the relationship between the jump height and the assessed force and power output of leg muscles.

Control strategy of maximum vertical jumps: The preferred countermovement depth may not be fully optimized for jump height.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandic, Radivoj; Knezevic, Olivera M; Mirkov, Dragan M; Jaric, Slobodan

2016-09-01

The aim of the present study was to explore the control strategy of maximum countermovement jumps regarding the preferred countermovement depth preceding the concentric jump phase. Elite basketball players and physically active non-athletes were tested on the jumps performed with and without an arm swing, while the countermovement depth was varied within the interval of almost 30 cm around its preferred value. The results consistently revealed 5.1-11.2 cm smaller countermovement depth than the optimum one, but the same difference was more prominent in non-athletes. In addition, although the same differences revealed a marked effect on the recorded force and power output, they reduced jump height for only 0.1-1.2 cm. Therefore, the studied control strategy may not be based solely on the countermovement depth that maximizes jump height. In addition, the comparison of the two groups does not support the concept of a dual-task strategy based on the trade-off between maximizing jump height and minimizing the jumping quickness that should be more prominent in the athletes that routinely need to jump quickly. Further research could explore whether the observed phenomenon is based on other optimization principles, such as the minimization of effort and energy expenditure. Nevertheless, future routine testing procedures should take into account that the control strategy of maximum countermovement jumps is not fully based on maximizing the jump height, while the countermovement depth markedly confound the relationship between the jump height and the assessed force and power output of leg muscles.

Mapping stochastic processes onto complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shirazi, A H; Reza Jafari, G; Davoudi, J; Peinke, J; Reza Rahimi Tabar, M; Sahimi, Muhammad

2009-01-01

We introduce a method by which stochastic processes are mapped onto complex networks. As examples, we construct the networks for such time series as those for free-jet and low-temperature helium turbulence, the German stock market index (the DAX), and white noise. The networks are further studied by contrasting their geometrical properties, such as the mean length, diameter, clustering, and average number of connections per node. By comparing the network properties of the original time series investigated with those for the shuffled and surrogate series, we are able to quantify the effect of the long-range correlations and the fatness of the probability distribution functions of the series on the networks constructed. Most importantly, we demonstrate that the time series can be reconstructed with high precision by means of a simple random walk on their corresponding networks

Jump conditions in transonic equilibria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guazzotto, L.; Betti, R.; Jardin, S. C.

2013-01-01

In the present paper, the numerical calculation of transonic equilibria, first introduced with the FLOW code in Guazzotto et al.[Phys. Plasmas 11, 604 (2004)], is critically reviewed. In particular, the necessity and effect of imposing explicit jump conditions at the transonic discontinuity are investigated. It is found that “standard” (low-β, large aspect ratio) transonic equilibria satisfy the correct jump condition with very good approximation even if the jump condition is not explicitly imposed. On the other hand, it is also found that high-β, low aspect ratio equilibria require the correct jump condition to be explicitly imposed. Various numerical approaches are described to modify FLOW to include the jump condition. It is proved that the new methods converge to the correct solution even in extreme cases of very large β, while they agree with the results obtained with the old implementation of FLOW in lower-β equilibria.

Stochastic modeling of soil salinity

Science.gov (United States)

Suweis, S.; Porporato, A. M.; Daly, E.; van der Zee, S.; Maritan, A.; Rinaldo, A.

2010-12-01

A minimalist stochastic model of primary soil salinity is proposed, in which the rate of soil salinization is determined by the balance between dry and wet salt deposition and the intermittent leaching events caused by rainfall events. The equations for the probability density functions of salt mass and concentration are found by reducing the coupled soil moisture and salt mass balance equations to a single stochastic differential equation (generalized Langevin equation) driven by multiplicative Poisson noise. Generalized Langevin equations with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual Ito (I) or Stratonovich (S) prescription dilemma. Different interpretations lead to different results and then choosing between the I and S prescriptions is crucial to describe correctly the dynamics of the model systems. We show how this choice can be determined by physical information about the timescales involved in the process. We also show that when the multiplicative noise is at most linear in the random variable one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We then apply these results to the generalized Langevin equation that drives the salt mass dynamics. The stationary analytical solutions for the probability density functions of salt mass and concentration provide insight on the interplay of the main soil, plant and climate parameters responsible for long term soil salinization. In particular, they show the existence of two distinct regimes, one where the mean salt mass remains nearly constant (or decreases) with increasing rainfall frequency, and another where mean salt content increases markedly with increasing rainfall frequency. As a result, relatively small reductions of rainfall in drier climates may entail dramatic shifts in longterm soil salinization trends, with significant consequences, e.g. for climate change impacts on rain fed agriculture.

Disentangling mechanisms that mediate the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes in microbial succession

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C.; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcao

2015-01-01

Ecological succession and the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes are two major themes within microbial ecology, but these conceptual domains have mostly developed independent of each other. Here we provide a framework that integrates shifts in community assembly processes with

Time Series, Stochastic Processes and Completeness of Quantum Theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kupczynski, Marian

2011-01-01

Most of physical experiments are usually described as repeated measurements of some random variables. Experimental data registered by on-line computers form time series of outcomes. The frequencies of different outcomes are compared with the probabilities provided by the algorithms of quantum theory (QT). In spite of statistical predictions of QT a claim was made that it provided the most complete description of the data and of the underlying physical phenomena. This claim could be easily rejected if some fine structures, averaged out in the standard descriptive statistical analysis, were found in time series of experimental data. To search for these structures one has to use more subtle statistical tools which were developed to study time series produced by various stochastic processes. In this talk we review some of these tools. As an example we show how the standard descriptive statistical analysis of the data is unable to reveal a fine structure in a simulated sample of AR (2) stochastic process. We emphasize once again that the violation of Bell inequalities gives no information on the completeness or the non locality of QT. The appropriate way to test the completeness of quantum theory is to search for fine structures in time series of the experimental data by means of the purity tests or by studying the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions.

Reliability and maintenance in European nuclear power plants: A structural analysis of a controlled stochastic process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sturm, R.

1991-01-01

Two aspects of performance are of main concern: plant availability and plant reliability (defined as the conditional probability of an unplanned shutdown). The goal of the research is a unified framework that combines behavioral models of optimizing agents with models of complex technical systems that take into account the dynamic and stochastic features of the system. In order to achieve this synthesis, two liens of work are necessary. One line requires a deeper understanding of complex production systems and the type of data they give rise to; the other line involves the specification and estimation of a rigorously specified behavioral model. Plant operations are modeled as a controlled stochastic process, and the sequence of up and downtime spells is analyzed during failure time and point process models. Similar to work on rational expectations and structural econometric models, the behavior model of how the plant process is controlled is formulated at the level of basic processes, i.e., the objective function of the plant manager, technical constraints, and stochastic disturbances

Measurement of L3 subshell absorption jump ratios and jump factors for high Z elements using EDXRF technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaçal, M.R.

2014-01-01

Energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence technique (EDXRF) has been employed for measuring L 3 -subshell absorption jump ratios, r L 3 and jump factors, J L 3 for high Z elements. Jump factors and jump ratios for these elements have been determined by measuring L 3 subshell fluorescence parameters such as L 3 subshell X-ray production cross section σ L 3 , L 3 subshell fluorescence yield, ω L 3 , total L 3 subshell and higher subshells photoionization cross section σ L T . Measurements were performed using a Cd-109 radioactive point source and an Si(Li) detector in direct excitation experimental geometry. Measured values for jump factors and jump ratios have been compared with theoretically calculated and other experimental values. - Highlights: • This paper regards L 3 subshell absorption jump ratios and jump factors using the EDXRF method. • These parameters were measured using a new method. • This method is more useful than other methods which require much effort. • Results are in good agreement with theoretical and experimental values

Soil Erosion as a stochastic process

Science.gov (United States)

Casper, Markus C.

2015-04-01

corrected experimentally. To overcome this disadvantage of our actual models, soil erosion models are needed that are able to use stochastic directly variables and parameter distributions. There are only some minor approaches in this direction. The most advanced is the model "STOSEM" proposed by Sidorchuk in 2005. In this model, only a small part of the soil erosion processes is described, the aggregate detachment and the aggregate transport by flowing water. The concept is highly simplified, for example, many parameters are temporally invariant. Nevertheless, the main problem is that our existing measurements and experiments are not geared to provide stochastic parameters (e.g. as probability density functions); in the best case they deliver a statistical validation of the mean values. Again, we get effective parameters, spatially and temporally averaged. There is an urgent need for laboratory and field experiments on overland flow structure, raindrop effects and erosion rate, which deliver information on spatial and temporal structure of soil and surface properties and processes.

Stochastic quantization and topological theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fainberg, V.Y.; Subbotin, A.V.; Kuznetsov, A.N.

1992-01-01

In the last two years topological quantum field theories (TQFT) have attached much attention. This paper reports that from the very beginning it was realized that due to a peculiar BRST-like symmetry these models admitted so-called Nicolai mapping: the Nicolai variables, in terms of which actions of the theories become gaussian, are nothing but (anti-) selfduality conditions or their generalizations. This fact became a starting point in the quest of possible stochastic interpretation to topological field theories. The reasons behind were quite simple and included, in particular, the well-known relations between stochastic processes and supersymmetry. The main goal would have been achieved, if it were possible to construct stochastic processes governed by Langevin or Fokker-Planck equations in a real Euclidean time leading to TQFT's path integrals (equivalently: to reformulate TQFTs as non-equilibrium phase dynamics of stochastic processes). Further on, if it would appear that these processes correspond to the stochastic quantization of theories of some definite kind, one could expect (d + 1)-dimensional TQFTs to share some common properties with d-dimensional ones

Simulation of Stochastic Processes by Coupled ODE-PDE

Science.gov (United States)

Zak, Michail

2008-01-01

A document discusses the emergence of randomness in solutions of coupled, fully deterministic ODE-PDE (ordinary differential equations-partial differential equations) due to failure of the Lipschitz condition as a new phenomenon. It is possible to exploit the special properties of ordinary differential equations (represented by an arbitrarily chosen, dynamical system) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equations (used to describe the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of joint probability distribution) in order to simulate stochastic processes with the proscribed probability distributions. The important advantage of the proposed approach is that the simulation does not require a random-number generator.

Recent advances in ambit stochastics with a view towards tempo-spatial stochastic volatility/intermittency

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E.; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

Ambit stochastics is the name for the theory and applications of ambit fields and ambit processes and constitutes a new research area in stochastics for tempo-spatial phenomena. This paper gives an overview of the main findings in ambit stochastics up to date and establishes new results on genera...

Experimental study of the hydraulic jump in a hydraulic jump in a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The hydraulic jump in a sloped rectangular channel is theoretically and experimentally examined. The study aims to determine the effect of the channel's slope on the sequent depth ratio of the jump. A theoretical relation is proposed for the inflow Froude number as function of the sequent depth ratio and the channel slope.

Mechanics of jumping on water

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ho-Young; Amauger, Juliette; Jeong, Han-Bi; Lee, Duck-Gyu; Yang, Eunjin; Jablonski, Piotr G.

2017-10-01

Some species of semiaquatic arthropods including water striders and springtails can jump from the water surface to avoid sudden dangers like predator attacks. It was reported recently that the jump of medium-sized water striders is a result of surface-tension-dominated interaction of thin cylindrical legs and water, with the leg movement speed nearly optimized to achieve the maximum takeoff velocity. Here we describe the mathematical theories to analyze this exquisite feat of nature by combining the review of existing models for floating and jumping and the introduction of the hitherto neglected capillary forces at the cylinder tips. The theoretically predicted dependence of body height on time is shown to match the observations of the jumps of the water striders and springtails regardless of the length of locomotory appendages. The theoretical framework can be used to understand the design principle of small jumping animals living on water and to develop biomimetic locomotion technology in semiaquatic environments.

Power Laws in Stochastic Processes for Social Phenomena: An Introductory Review

Science.gov (United States)

Kumamoto, Shin-Ichiro; Kamihigashi, Takashi

2018-03-01

Many phenomena with power laws have been observed in various fields of the natural and social sciences, and these power laws are often interpreted as the macro behaviors of systems that consist of micro units. In this paper, we review some basic mathematical mechanisms that are known to generate power laws. In particular, we focus on stochastic processes including the Yule process and the Simon process as well as some recent models. The main purpose of this paper is to explain the mathematical details of their mechanisms in a self-contained manner.

THE EFFECTS OF SIXWEEKS PROGRAM OF PLYOMETRIC TRENING ON VOLLEYBALL JUMPING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladan Milić

2008-08-01

Full Text Available With goal to examine effects of plyometric training program on development of jumping strength for volleyball players, it was organized an experimental research on pattern of 23 volleyball players from cadet team and 23 students from high-school. Guided by general principles for plyometric training, individual plans for training were made. For estimating the effects of sports training on development of jumping, eight variables were used. For needs of this research four tests are valid for estimation, jump in block with left and right leg and jump in spike with left and right leg. Experiment has been realized in the second part on conditional preparations, and lasted for six weeks with two or three trainings per week. Control group had physical education lessons at their schools twice a week. Data were processed by in variant, multivariate analysis and analysis of covariance. On the results of research and discussion we can say that the model of training we used for development of jumping as a basic factor in experimental group brought statistically bigger difference in improving jumping that it brought in control group.

Stochastic Analysis of a Queue Length Model Using a Graphics Processing Unit

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Přikryl, Jan; Kocijan, J.

2012-01-01

Roč. 5, č. 2 (2012), s. 55-62 ISSN 1802-971X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) MEB091015 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : graphics processing unit * GPU * Monte Carlo simulation * computer simulation * modeling Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/AS/prikryl-stochastic analysis of a queue length model using a graphics processing unit.pdf

Stochastic optimal control, forward-backward stochastic differential equations and the Schroedinger equation