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Sample records for jump stochastic process

  1. Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Lupu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.

  2. Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Lupu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.

  3. Stabilized Numerical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations driven by Diffusion and Jump-Diffusion Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Blumenthal, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic models that account for sudden, unforeseeable events play a crucial role in many different fields such as finance, economics, biology, chemistry, physics and so on. That kind of stochastic problems can be modeled by stochastic differential equations driven by jump-diffusion processes. In addition, there are situations, where a stochastic model is based on stochastic differential equations with multiple scales. Such stochastic problems are called stiff and lead for classical ex...

  4. Adiabatic reduction of a model of stochastic gene expression with jump Markov process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yvinec, Romain; Zhuge, Changjing; Lei, Jinzhi; Mackey, Michael C

    2014-04-01

    This paper considers adiabatic reduction in a model of stochastic gene expression with bursting transcription considered as a jump Markov process. In this model, the process of gene expression with auto-regulation is described by fast/slow dynamics. The production of mRNA is assumed to follow a compound Poisson process occurring at a rate depending on protein levels (the phenomena called bursting in molecular biology) and the production of protein is a linear function of mRNA numbers. When the dynamics of mRNA is assumed to be a fast process (due to faster mRNA degradation than that of protein) we prove that, with appropriate scalings in the burst rate, jump size or translational rate, the bursting phenomena can be transmitted to the slow variable. We show that, depending on the scaling, the reduced equation is either a stochastic differential equation with a jump Poisson process or a deterministic ordinary differential equation. These results are significant because adiabatic reduction techniques seem to have not been rigorously justified for a stochastic differential system containing a jump Markov process. We expect that the results can be generalized to adiabatic methods in more general stochastic hybrid systems.

  5. Stochastic stability properties of jump linear systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiangbo; Loparo, Kenneth A.; Ji, Yuandong; Chizeck, Howard J.

    1992-01-01

    Jump linear systems are defined as a family of linear systems with randomly jumping parameters (usually governed by a Markov jump process) and are used to model systems subject to failures or changes in structure. The authors study stochastic stability properties in jump linear systems and the relationship among various moment and sample path stability properties. It is shown that all second moment stability properties are equivalent and are sufficient for almost sure sample path stability, and a testable necessary and sufficient condition for second moment stability is derived. The Lyapunov exponent method for the study of almost sure sample stability is discussed, and a theorem which characterizes the Lyapunov exponents of jump linear systems is presented.

  6. Pricing of American Put Option under a Jump Diffusion Process with Stochastic Volatility in an Incomplete Market

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    Shuang Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the pricing of American options in an incomplete market in which the dynamics of the underlying risky asset is driven by a jump diffusion process with stochastic volatility. By employing a risk-minimization criterion, we obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative for the minimal martingale measure and consequently a linear complementarity problem (LCP for American option price. An iterative method is then established to solve the LCP problem for American put option price. Our numerical results show that the model and numerical scheme are robust in capturing the feature of incomplete finance market, particularly the influence of market volatility on the price of American options.

  7. A Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility and Durations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wei, Wei; Pelletier, Denis

    Market microstructure theories suggest that the durations between transactions carry information about volatility. This paper puts forward a model featuring stochastic volatility, stochastic conditional duration, and jumps to analyze high frequency returns and durations. Durations affect price...... jumps in two ways: as exogenous sampling intervals, and through the interaction with volatility. We adopt a bivariate Ornstein-Ulenbeck process to model intraday volatility and conditional duration. We develop a MCMC algorithm for the inference on irregularly spaced multivariate processes with jumps....... The algorithm provides smoothed estimates of the latent variables such as spot volatility, conditional duration, jump times, and jump sizes. We apply this model to IBM data and find that volatility and conditional duration are interdependent. We also find that jumps play an important role in return variation...

  8. Stochastic Games for Continuous-Time Jump Processes Under Finite-Horizon Payoff Criterion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Qingda, E-mail: weiqd@hqu.edu.cn [Huaqiao University, School of Economics and Finance (China); Chen, Xian, E-mail: chenxian@amss.ac.cn [Peking University, School of Mathematical Sciences (China)

    2016-10-15

    In this paper we study two-person nonzero-sum games for continuous-time jump processes with the randomized history-dependent strategies under the finite-horizon payoff criterion. The state space is countable, and the transition rates and payoff functions are allowed to be unbounded from above and from below. Under the suitable conditions, we introduce a new topology for the set of all randomized Markov multi-strategies and establish its compactness and metrizability. Then by constructing the approximating sequences of the transition rates and payoff functions, we show that the optimal value function for each player is a unique solution to the corresponding optimality equation and obtain the existence of a randomized Markov Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we illustrate the applications of our main results with a controlled birth and death system.

  9. Filtering and control of stochastic jump hybrid systems

    CERN Document Server

    Yao, Xiuming; Zheng, Wei Xing

    2016-01-01

    This book presents recent research work on stochastic jump hybrid systems. Specifically, the considered stochastic jump hybrid systems include Markovian jump Ito stochastic systems, Markovian jump linear-parameter-varying (LPV) systems, Markovian jump singular systems, Markovian jump two-dimensional (2-D) systems, and Markovian jump repeated scalar nonlinear systems. Some sufficient conditions are first established respectively for the stability and performances of those kinds of stochastic jump hybrid systems in terms of solution of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Based on the derived analysis conditions, the filtering and control problems are addressed. The book presents up-to-date research developments and novel methodologies on stochastic jump hybrid systems. The contents can be divided into two parts: the first part is focused on robust filter design problem, while the second part is put the emphasis on robust control problem. These methodologies provide a framework for stability and performance analy...

  10. Stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Parzen, Emanuel

    2015-01-01

    Well-written and accessible, this classic introduction to stochastic processes and related mathematics is appropriate for advanced undergraduate students of mathematics with a knowledge of calculus and continuous probability theory. The treatment offers examples of the wide variety of empirical phenomena for which stochastic processes provide mathematical models, and it develops the methods of probability model-building.Chapter 1 presents precise definitions of the notions of a random variable and a stochastic process and introduces the Wiener and Poisson processes. Subsequent chapters examine

  11. Stochastic asymptotical synchronization of chaotic Markovian jumping fuzzy cellular neural networks with mixed delays and the Wiener process based on sampled-data control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    M.Kalpana; P.Balasubramaniam

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic asymptotical synchronization of chaotic Markovian jumping fuzzy cellular neural networks (MJFCNNs) with discrete,unbounded distributed delays,and the Wiener process based on sampled-data control using the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach.The Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional combined with the input delay approach as well as the free-weighting matrix approach is employed to derive several sufficient criteria in terms of LMIs to ensure that the delayed MJFCNNs with the Wiener process is stochastic asymptotical synchronous.Restrictions (e.g.,time derivative is smaller than one) are removed to obtain a proposed sampled-data controller.Finally,a numerical example is provided to demonstrate the reliability of the derived results.

  12. Towards Stability Analysis of Jump Linear Systems with State-Dependent and Stochastic Switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Arturo; Gonzalez, Oscar R.; Gray, W. Steven

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the stability of hierarchical jump linear systems where the supervisor is driven by a Markovian stochastic process and by the values of the supervised jump linear system s states. The stability framework for this class of systems is developed over infinite and finite time horizons. The framework is then used to derive sufficient stability conditions for a specific class of hybrid jump linear systems with performance supervision. New sufficient stochastic stability conditions for discrete-time jump linear systems are also presented.

  13. Stochastic mutualism model with Lévy jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we consider a stochastic mutualism model with Lévy jumps. First of all, we show that the positive solution of the system is stochastically ultimate bounded. Then under a simple assumption, we establish sufficient and necessary conditions for the stochastic permanence and extinction of the system. The results show an important property of the Lévy jumps: they are unfavorable for the permanence of the species. Moreover, when there are no Lévy jumps, we show that there is a unique ergodic stationary distribution of the corresponding system under certain conditions. Some numerical simulations are introduced to validate the theoretical results.

  14. Stochastic processes in cell biology

    CERN Document Server

    Bressloff, Paul C

    2014-01-01

    This book develops the theory of continuous and discrete stochastic processes within the context of cell biology.  A wide range of biological topics are covered including normal and anomalous diffusion in complex cellular environments, stochastic ion channels and excitable systems, stochastic calcium signaling, molecular motors, intracellular transport, signal transduction, bacterial chemotaxis, robustness in gene networks, genetic switches and oscillators, cell polarization, polymerization, cellular length control, and branching processes. The book also provides a pedagogical introduction to the theory of stochastic process – Fokker Planck equations, stochastic differential equations, master equations and jump Markov processes, diffusion approximations and the system size expansion, first passage time problems, stochastic hybrid systems, reaction-diffusion equations, exclusion processes, WKB methods, martingales and branching processes, stochastic calculus, and numerical methods.   This text is primarily...

  15. Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps (with discussion)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Shephard, N.

    2004-01-01

    This article shows that realized power variation and its extension, realized bipower variation, which we introduce here, are somewhat robust to rare jumps. We demonstrate that in special cases, realized bipower variation estimates integrated variance in stochastic volatility models, thus providing...... a model-free and consistent alternative to realized variance. Its robustness property means that if we have a stochastic volatility plus infrequent jumps process, then the difference between realized variance and realized bipower variation estimates the quadratic variation of the jump component...

  16. Stochastic Stabilization of Itô Stochastic Systems with Markov Jumping and Linear Fractional Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Long

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available For a class of Itô stochastic linear systems with the Markov jumping and linear fractional uncertainty, the stochastic stabilization problem is investigated via state feedback and dynamic output feedback, respectively. In order to guarantee the stochastic stability of such uncertain systems, state feedback and dynamic output control law are, respectively, designed by using multiple Lyapunov function technique and LMI approach. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to illustrate our results.

  17. Stabilization of stochastic systems with hidden Markovian jumps

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper considers the adaptive control of discrete-time hybrid stochastic systems with unknown randomly jumping parameters described by a finite-state hidden Markov chain. An intuitive yet longstanding conjecture in this area is that such hybrid systems can be adaptively stabilized whenever the rate of transition of the hidden Markov chain is small enough. This paper provides a rigorous positive answer to this conjecture by establishing the global stability of a gradient-algorithm-based adaptive linear-quadratic control.

  18. Stochastic processes - quantum physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Streit, L. (Bielefeld Univ. (Germany, F.R.))

    1984-01-01

    The author presents an elementary introduction to stochastic processes. He starts from simple quantum mechanics and considers problems in probability, finally presenting quantum dynamics in terms of stochastic processes.

  19. A RISK-SENSITIVE STOCHASTIC MAXIMUM PRINCIPLE FOR OPTIMAL CONTROL OF JUMP DIFFUSIONS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi Jingtao; Wu Zhen

    2011-01-01

    A stochastic maximum principle for the risk-sensitive optimal control prob- lem of jump diffusion processes with an exponential-of-integral cost functional is derived assuming that the value function is smooth, where the diffusion and jump term may both depend on the control. The form of the maximum principle is similar to its risk-neutral counterpart. But the adjoint equations and the maximum condition heavily depend on the risk-sensitive parameter. As applications, a linear-quadratic risk-sensitive control problem is solved by using the maximum principle derived and explicit optimal control is obtained.

  20. A Multivariate Stochastic Hybrid Model with Switching Coefficients and Jumps: Solution and Distribution

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    D. P. Siu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a class of multidimensional stochastic hybrid dynamic models is studied. The system under investigation is a first-order linear nonhomogeneous system of Itô-Doob type stochastic differential equations with switching coefficients. The switching of the system is governed by a discrete dynamic which is monitored by a non-homogeneous Poisson process. Closed-form solutions of the systems are obtained. Furthermore, the major part of the work is devoted to finding closed-form probability density functions of the solution processes of linear homogeneous and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type systems with jumps.

  1. FBSDE with Poisson Process and Its Application to Linear Quadratic Stochastic Optimal Control Problem with Random Jumps%带有随机跳跃干扰的线性二次随机最优控制问题

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴臻; 王向荣

    2003-01-01

    给出一类布朗运动和泊松过程混合驱动的正倒向随机微分方程解的存在唯一性结果,应用这一结果研究带有随机跳跃干扰的线性二次随机最优控制问题,并得到最优控制的显式形式,可以证明最优控制是唯一的.然后,引入和研究一类推广的黎卡提方程系统,讨论该方程系统的可解性并由该方程的解得到带有随机跳跃干扰的线性二次随机最优控制问题最优的线性反馈.%One kind of existence and uniqueness result of forward-backward stochastic differential equations with Brownian motion and Poisson process is given. The result is applied to get the explicit form of the optimal control for linear quadratic stochastic optimal control problem with random jumps. The optimal control can be proved to be unique. One kind of generalized Riccati equation system is introduced and its solvability is discussed. The linear feedback regulator for the optimal control problem with random jump is given by the solution of the generalized Riccati equation system

  2. Research on the Price Features of Oil Stochastic Model Based on the Continuous Jump Model

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    Hou Mengmeng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aiming at calculating the price changes under the price features of oil stochastic model, the continuous jump model is proposed in this paper for data processing. The procedure is flexible, may be used with market prices of any oil contingent claim with closed form pricing solution, and easily deals with missing data problems. The results show that the accuracy can thus be improved overall the proposed system substantially.

  3. New delay-dependent stability of Markovian jump neutral stochastic systems with general unknown transition rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Yonggui; Wang, Changhong; Xie, Jing; Karimi, Hamid Reza

    2016-08-01

    This paper investigates the delay-dependent stability problem for neutral Markovian jump systems with generally unknown transition rates (GUTRs). In this neutral GUTR model, each transition rate is completely unknown or only its estimate value is known. Based on the study of expectations of the stochastic cross-terms containing the ? integral, a new stability criterion is derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities. In the mathematical derivation process, bounding stochastic cross-terms, model transformation and free-weighting matrix are not employed for less conservatism. Finally, an example is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

  4. Ridge jump process in Iceland

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia, Sebastian

    2010-01-01

    Eastward ridge jumps bring the volcanic zones of Iceland back to the centre of the hotspot in response to the absolute westward drift of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Mantellic pulses triggers these ridge jumps. One of them is occurring in Southern Iceland, whereas the exact conditions of the last ridge jump in Northern Iceland remain controversial. The diachronous evolution of these two parts of Iceland may be related to the asymmetric plume-ridge interaction when comparing Northern and Southern I...

  5. Theory of stochastic differential equations with jumps and applications mathematical and analytical techniques with applications to engineering

    CERN Document Server

    SITU, Rong

    2005-01-01

    Derivation of Ito's formulas, Girsanov's theorems and martingale representation theorem for stochastic DEs with jumpsApplications to population controlReflecting stochastic DE techniqueApplications to the stock market. (Backward stochastic DE approach)Derivation of Black-Scholes formula for market with and without jumpsNon-linear filtering problems with jumps.

  6. Asymptotic behavior of stochastic Gilpin-Ayala mutualism model with jumps

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    Xinhong Zhang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This article concerns the study of stochastic Gilpin-Ayala mutualism models with white noise and Poisson jumps. Firstly, an explicit solution for one-dimensional Gilpin-Ayala mutualism model with jumps is obtained and the asymptotic pathwise behavior is analyzed. Then, sufficient conditions for the existence of global positive solutions, stochastically ultimate boundedness and stochastic permanence are established for the n-dimensional model. Asymptotic pathwise behavior of n-dimensional Gilpin-Ayala mutualism model with jumps is also discussed. Finally numerical examples are introduced to illustrate the results developed.

  7. Contingent claims pricing with stochastic life in random interest rate and jump-diffusion process%随机利率和跳-扩散过程下具有随机寿命的未定权益定价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李蕊

    2011-01-01

    在利率服从Hull-White-Vasicek利率模型、风险资产服从跳-扩散过程的假设下,建立具有随机寿命的欧式未定权益定价模型.对具有随机寿命的养老金合约、保险合同、股票期权、远期合约和可转换债券等欧式未定权益进行定价,得到具体的欧式未定权益定价公式.%European contingent claims pricing model with stochastic life was established if the interest rate would obey the Hull-White-Vasicek model and the risk assets would follow the jump-diffusion process. Several European contingent claims such as pension contract, insurance contract, stock option, forward contracts, convertible bond, which were with stochastic life, were priced and the pricing formula of con crete Europian contingent claims was obtained.

  8. Stochastic processes inference theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Malempati M

    2014-01-01

    This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

  9. Option pricing for stochastic volatility model with infinite activity Lévy jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Xiaoli; Zhuang, Xintian

    2016-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to apply the stochastic volatility model driven by infinite activity Lévy processes to option pricing which displays infinite activity jumps behaviors and time varying volatility that is consistent with the phenomenon observed in underlying asset dynamics. We specially pay attention to three typical Lévy processes that replace the compound Poisson jumps in Bates model, aiming to capture the leptokurtic feature in asset returns and volatility clustering effect in returns variance. By utilizing the analytical characteristic function and fast Fourier transform technique, the closed form formula of option pricing can be derived. The intelligent global optimization search algorithm called Differential Evolution is introduced into the above highly dimensional models for parameters calibration so as to improve the calibration quality of fitted option models. Finally, we perform empirical researches using both time series data and options data on financial markets to illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

  10. Semiclassical analysis for diffusions and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Kolokoltsov, Vassili N

    2000-01-01

    The monograph is devoted mainly to the analytical study of the differential, pseudo-differential and stochastic evolution equations describing the transition probabilities of various Markov processes. These include (i) diffusions (in particular,degenerate diffusions), (ii) more general jump-diffusions, especially stable jump-diffusions driven by stable Lévy processes, (iii) complex stochastic Schrödinger equations which correspond to models of quantum open systems. The main results of the book concern the existence, two-sided estimates, path integral representation, and small time and semiclassical asymptotics for the Green functions (or fundamental solutions) of these equations, which represent the transition probability densities of the corresponding random process. The boundary value problem for Hamiltonian systems and some spectral asymptotics ar also discussed. Readers should have an elementary knowledge of probability, complex and functional analysis, and calculus.

  11. Multifractal Analysis of Infinite Products of Stationary Jump Processes

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    Petteri Mannersalo

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing interest in constructing stationary measures with known multifractal properties. In an earlier paper, the authors introduced the multifractal products of stochastic processes (MPSP and provided basic properties concerning convergence, nondegeneracy, and scaling of moments. This paper considers a subclass of MPSP which is determined by jump processes with i.i.d. exponentially distributed interjump times. Particularly, the information dimension and a multifractal spectrum of the MPSP are computed. As a side result it is shown that the random partitions imprinted naturally by a family of Poisson point processes are sufficient to determine the spectrum in this case.

  12. Stationary distribution and ergodicity of a stochastic food-chain model with Lévy jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jingyi; Liu, Meng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, a three-species stochastic food-chain model with Lévy jumps is proposed and analyzed. Sharp sufficient criteria for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution are established. The effects of Lévy jumps on the existence of the stationary distribution are revealed: in some cases, the Lévy jumps could make the stationary distribution appear, while in some cases, the Lévy jumps could make the stationary distribution disappear. Some numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate the theoretical results.

  13. Essentials of stochastic processes

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    Durrett, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Building upon the previous editions, this textbook is a first course in stochastic processes taken by undergraduate and graduate students (MS and PhD students from math, statistics, economics, computer science, engineering, and finance departments) who have had a course in probability theory. It covers Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, Poisson processes, renewal processes, martingales, and option pricing. One can only learn a subject by seeing it in action, so there are a large number of examples and more than 300 carefully chosen exercises to deepen the reader’s understanding. Drawing from teaching experience and student feedback, there are many new examples and problems with solutions that use TI-83 to eliminate the tedious details of solving linear equations by hand, and the collection of exercises is much improved, with many more biological examples. Originally included in previous editions, material too advanced for this first course in stochastic processes has been eliminated while treatm...

  14. Intertime jump statistics of state-dependent Poisson processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Edoardo; Porporato, Amilcare

    2007-01-01

    A method to obtain the probability distribution of the interarrival times of jump occurrences in systems driven by state-dependent Poisson noise is proposed. Such a method uses the survivor function obtained by a modified version of the master equation associated to the stochastic process under analysis. A model for the timing of human activities shows the capability of state-dependent Poisson noise to generate power-law distributions. The application of the method to a model for neuron dynamics and to a hydrological model accounting for land-atmosphere interaction elucidates the origin of characteristic recurrence intervals and possible persistence in state-dependent Poisson models.

  15. Intertime jump statistics of state-dependent Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Edoardo; Porporato, Amilcare

    2007-01-01

    A method to obtain the probability distribution of the interarrival times of jump occurrences in systems driven by state-dependent Poisson noise is proposed. Such a method uses the survivor function obtained by a modified version of the master equation associated to the stochastic process under analysis. A model for the timing of human activities shows the capability of state-dependent Poisson noise to generate power-law distributions. The application of the method to a model for neuron dynamics and to a hydrological model accounting for land-atmosphere interaction elucidates the origin of characteristic recurrence intervals and possible persistence in state-dependent Poisson models.

  16. A Robust Weak Taylor Approximation Scheme for Solutions of Jump-Diffusion Stochastic Delay Differential Equations

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    Yanli Zhou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Stochastic delay differential equations with jumps have a wide range of applications, particularly, in mathematical finance. Solution of the underlying initial value problems is important for the understanding and control of many phenomena and systems in the real world. In this paper, we construct a robust Taylor approximation scheme and then examine the convergence of the method in a weak sense. A convergence theorem for the scheme is established and proved. Our analysis and numerical examples show that the proposed scheme of high order is effective and efficient for Monte Carlo simulations for jump-diffusion stochastic delay differential equations.

  17. Control Improvement for Jump-Diffusion Processes with Applications to Finance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baeuerle, Nicole, E-mail: nicole.baeuerle@kit.edu [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Stochastics (Germany); Rieder, Ulrich, E-mail: ulrich.rieder@uni-ulm.de [University of Ulm, Department of Optimization and Operations Research (Germany)

    2012-02-15

    We consider stochastic control problems with jump-diffusion processes and formulate an algorithm which produces, starting from a given admissible control {pi}, a new control with a better value. If no improvement is possible, then {pi} is optimal. Such an algorithm is well-known for discrete-time Markov Decision Problems under the name Howard's policy improvement algorithm. The idea can be traced back to Bellman. Here we show with the help of martingale techniques that such an algorithm can also be formulated for stochastic control problems with jump-diffusion processes. As an application we derive some interesting results in financial portfolio optimization.

  18. Backward Doubly Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps and Stochastic Partial Differential-Integral Equations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qingfeng ZHU; Yufeng SHI

    2012-01-01

    Backward doubly stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motions and Poisson process (BDSDEP) with non-Lipschitz coefficients on random time interval are studied.The probabilistic interpretation for the solutions to a class of quasilinear stochastic partial differential-integral equations (SPDIEs) is treated with BDSDEP.Under non-Lipschitz conditions,the existence and uniqueness results for measurable solutions to BDSDEP are established via the smoothing technique.Then,the continuous dependence for solutions to BDSDEP is derived.Finally,the probabilistic interpretation for the solutions to a class of quasilinear SPDIEs is given.

  19. Stochastic Stability of Sampled Data Systems with a Jump Linear Controller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Oscar R.; Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Gray, W. Steven

    2004-01-01

    In this paper an equivalence between the stochastic stability of a sampled-data system and its associated discrete-time representation is established. The sampled-data system consists of a deterministic, linear, time-invariant, continuous-time plant and a stochastic, linear, time-invariant, discrete-time, jump linear controller. The jump linear controller models computer systems and communication networks that are subject to stochastic upsets or disruptions. This sampled-data model has been used in the analysis and design of fault-tolerant systems and computer-control systems with random communication delays without taking into account the inter-sample response. This paper shows that the known equivalence between the stability of a deterministic sampled-data system and the associated discrete-time representation holds even in a stochastic framework.

  20. Inflation Volatility and Growth in a Stochastic Small Open Economy: A Mixed Jump-Diffusion Approach

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    Isela Elizabeth Téllez-León

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to examine how inflation volatility affects economic growth in a small open economy. To reach this goal, a stochastic macroeconomic model with a financial sector and incomplete financial markets (due to the inclusion of jumps is developed. It is assumed that the general price level is driven by mixed diffusion-jump process, that is, a Brownian motion governs inflation and a Poisson process guides unexpected and sudden jumps in the price index. The economic growth rate is endogenously determined, in the equilibrium, as a function of parameters of the inflation process.El objetivo de esta investigación es examinar cómo la volatilidad en la inflación afecta el crecimiento económico en una economía pequeña y abierta. Para alcanzar este objetivo, se desarrolla un modelo macroeconómico estocástico con un sector financiero y con mercados financieros incompletos (debido a la inclusión de saltos. Se supone que el nivel general de precios es conducido por un proceso estocástico que combina difusiones con saltos, es decir, la inflación es gobernada por un movimiento browniano y los saltos bruscos e inesperados en el índice de precios se rigen por un proceso de Poisson. La tasa de crecimiento económico se determina endógenamente, en el equilibrio, en función de los parámetros del proceso que conduce a la inflación.

  1. Controllability of nonlocal second-order impulsive neutral stochastic functional integro-differential equations with delay and Poisson jumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diem Dang Huan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The current paper is concerned with the controllability of nonlocal second-order impulsive neutral stochastic functional integro-differential equations with infinite delay and Poisson jumps in Hilbert spaces. Using the theory of a strongly continuous cosine family of bounded linear operators, stochastic analysis theory and with the help of the Banach fixed point theorem, we derive a new set of sufficient conditions for the controllability of nonlocal second-order impulsive neutral stochastic functional integro-differential equations with infinite delay and Poisson jumps. Finally, an application to the stochastic nonlinear wave equation with infinite delay and Poisson jumps is given.

  2. Joint Pricing of VIX and SPX Options with Stochastic Volatility and Jump models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas; Stisen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    and variance (SVJJ) are jointly calibrated to market quotes on SPX and VIX options together with VIX futures. The full flexibility of having jumps in both returns and volatility added to a stochastic volatility model is essential. Moreover, we find that the SVJJ model with the Feller condition imposed...

  3. Verification of Stochastic Process Calculi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skrypnyuk, Nataliya

    Stochastic process calculi represent widely accepted formalisms within Computer Science for modelling nondeterministic stochastic systems in a compositional way. Similar to process calculi in general, they are suited for modelling systems in a hierarchical manner, by explicitly specifying...... subsystems as well as their interdependences and communication channels. Stochastic process calculi incorporate both the quantified uncertainty on probabilities or durations of events and nondeterministic choices between several possible continuations of the system behaviour. Modelling of a system is often...

  4. Passivity analysis of uncertain stochastic neural networks with time-varying delays and Markovian jumping parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, M Syed; Rani, M Esther

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the problem of robust passivity of uncertain stochastic neural networks with time-varying delays and Markovian jumping parameters. To reflect most of the dynamical behaviors of the system, both parameter uncertainties and stochastic disturbances are considered; stochastic disturbances are given in the form of a Brownian motion. By utilizing the Lyapunov functional method, the Itô differential rule, and matrix analysis techniques, we establish a sufficient criterion such that, for all admissible parameter uncertainties and stochastic disturbances, the stochastic neural network is robustly passive in the sense of expectation. A delay-dependent stability condition is formulated, in which the restriction of the derivative of the time-varying delay should be less than 1 is removed. The derived criteria are expressed in terms of linear matrix inequalities that can be easily checked by using the standard numerical software. Illustrative examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed results.

  5. Approximating solutions of neutral stochastic evolution equations with jumps

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we establish existence and uniqueness of the mild solutions to a class of neutral stochastic evolution equations driven by Poisson random measures in some Hilbert space. Moreover, we adopt the Faedo-Galerkin scheme to approximate the solutions.

  6. Switching Controller Design for a Class of Markovian Jump Nonlinear Systems Using Stochastic Small-Gain Theorem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Zhu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Switching controller design for a class of Markovian jump nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics is considered in this paper. Based on the differential equation and infinitesimal generator of jump systems, the concept of Jump Input-to-State practical Stability (JISpS in probability and stochastic Lyapunov stability criterion are put forward. By using backsetpping technology and stochastic small-gain theorem, a switching controller is proposed which ensures JISpS in probability for the jump nonlinear system. A simulation example illustrates the validity of this design.

  7. Stochastic Stability Analysis for Markovian Jump Neutral Nonlinear Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Wang

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the stability problem is studied for a class of Markovian jump neutral nonlinear systems with time-varying delay. By Lyapunov-Krasovskii function approach, a novel mean-square exponential stability criterion is derived for the situations that the system's transition rates are completely accessible, partially accessible and non-accessible, respectively. Moreover, the developed stability criterion is extended to the systems with different bounded sector nonlinear constraints. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

  8. Stochastic Nature in Cellular Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘波; 刘圣君; 王祺; 晏世伟; 耿轶钊; SAKATA Fumihiko; GAO Xing-Fa

    2011-01-01

    The importance of stochasticity in cellular processes is increasingly recognized in both theoretical and experimental studies. General features of stochasticity in gene regulation and expression are briefly reviewed in this article, which include the main experimental phenomena, classification, quantization and regulation of noises. The correlation and transmission of noise in cascade networks are analyzed further and the stochastic simulation methods that can capture effects of intrinsic and extrinsic noise are described.

  9. Turbulence and Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celani, Antonio; Mazzino, Andrea; Pumir, Alain

    sec:08-1In 1931 the monograph Analytical Methods in Probability Theory appeared, in which A.N. Kolmogorov laid the foundations for the modern theory of Markov processes [1]. According to Gnedenko: "In the history of probability theory it is difficult to find other works that changed the established points of view and basic trends in research work in such a decisive way". Ten years later, his article on fully developed turbulence provided the framework within which most, if not all, of the subsequent theoretical investigations have been conducted [2] (see e.g. the review by Biferale et al. in this volume [3]. Remarkably, the greatest advances made in the last few years towards a thorough understanding of turbulence developed from the successful marriage between the theory of stochastic processes and the phenomenology of turbulent transport of scalar fields. In this article we will summarize these recent developments which expose the direct link between the intermittency of transported fields and the statistical properties of particle trajectories advected by the turbulent flow (see also [4], and, for a more thorough review, [5]. We also discuss the perspectives of the Lagrangian approach beyond passive scalars, especially for the modeling of hydrodynamic turbulence.

  10. Robust H∞ Filtering for Uncertain Neutral Stochastic Systems with Markovian Jumping Parameters and Time Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yajun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the robust H∞ filter design problem for a class of uncertain neutral stochastic systems with Markovian jumping parameters and time delay. Based on the Lyapunov-Krasovskii theory and generalized Finsler Lemma, a delay-dependent stability condition is proposed to ensure not only that the filter error system is robustly stochastically stable but also that a prescribed H∞ performance level is satisfied for all admissible uncertainties. All obtained results are expressed in terms of linear matrix inequalities which can be easily solved by MATLAB LMI toolbox. Numerical examples are given to show that the results obtained are both less conservative and less complicated in computation.

  11. Optimal control strategy for an impulsive stochastic competition system with time delays and jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lidan; Meng, Xinzhu; Zhang, Tonghua

    2017-07-01

    Driven by both white and jump noises, a stochastic delayed model with two competitive species in a polluted environment is proposed and investigated. By using the comparison theorem of stochastic differential equations and limit superior theory, sufficient conditions for persistence in mean and extinction of two species are established. In addition, we obtain that the system is asymptotically stable in distribution by using ergodic method. Furthermore, the optimal harvesting effort and the maximum of expectation of sustainable yield (ESY) are derived from Hessian matrix method and optimal harvesting theory of differential equations. Finally, some numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.

  12. Observer-Based Controller Design for Singular Stochastic Markov Jump Systems with State Dependent Noise

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Yong; ZHANG Weihai

    2016-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the problem of observer-based controller design for singular stochastic Markov jump systems with state-dependent noise.Two concepts called "non-impulsiveness" and "mean square admissibility" are introduced,which are different from previous ones.Sufficient conditions for the open-and closed-loop singular stochastic Markov jump systems with state-dependent noise to be mean square admissible are provided in terms of strict LMIs.The controller gain and the observer gain which guarantee the resulting closed-loop error system to be mean square admissible are obtained in turn by solving the strict LMIs.A numerical example is presented to show the efficiency of the design approach.

  13. ABC of SV: Limited Information Likelihood Inference in Stochastic Volatility Jump-Diffusion Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creel, Michael; Kristensen, Dennis

    We develop novel methods for estimation and filtering of continuous-time models with stochastic volatility and jumps using so-called Approximate Bayesian Computation which build likelihoods based on limited information. The proposed estimators and filters are computationally attractive relative...... to standard likelihood-based versions since they rely on low-dimensional auxiliary statistics and so avoid computation of high-dimensional integrals. Despite their computational simplicity, we find that estimators and filters perform well in practice and lead to precise estimates of model parameters...... stochastic volatility model for the dynamics of the S&P 500 equity index. We find evidence of the presence of a dynamic jump rate and in favor of a structural break in parameters at the time of the recent financial crisis. We find evidence that possible measurement error in log price is small and has little...

  14. A Hull and White Formula for a General Stochastic Volatility Jump-Diffusion Model with Applications to the Study of the Short-Time Behavior of the Implied Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Alòs

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available We obtain a Hull and White type formula for a general jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, where the involved stochastic volatility process is correlated not only with the Brownian motion driving the asset price but also with the asset price jumps. Towards this end, we establish an anticipative Itô's formula, using Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes on the canonical space. As an application, we show that the dependence of the volatility process on the asset price jumps has no effect on the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility skew.

  15. Stochastic stability of linear time-delay system with Markovian jumping parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Benjelloun

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the class of linear time-delay systems with Markovian jumping parameters (LTDSMJP. We mainly extend the stability results of the deterministic class of linear systems with time-delay to this class of systems. A delay-independent necessary condition and sufficient conditions for checking the stochastic stability are established. A sufficient condition is also given. Some numerical examples are provided to show the usefulness of the proposed theoretical results.

  16. 100 years after Smoluchowski: stochastic processes in cell biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holcman, D.; Schuss, Z.

    2017-03-01

    100 years after Smoluchowski introduced his approach to stochastic processes, they are now at the basis of mathematical and physical modeling in cellular biology: they are used for example to analyse and to extract features from a large number (tens of thousands) of single molecular trajectories or to study the diffusive motion of molecules, proteins or receptors. Stochastic modeling is a new step in large data analysis that serves extracting cell biology concepts. We review here Smoluchowski’s approach to stochastic processes and provide several applications for coarse-graining diffusion, studying polymer models for understanding nuclear organization and finally, we discuss the stochastic jump dynamics of telomeres across cell division and stochastic gene regulation.

  17. Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf

    2009-01-01

    This paper shows how to solve and estimate a continuous-time dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with jumps. It also shows that a continuous-time formulation can make it simpler (relative to its discrete-time version) to compute and estimate the deep parameters using the likelihoo...

  18. Enantiodromic effective generators of a Markov jump process with Gallavotti-Cohen symmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terohid, S. A. A.; Torkaman, P.; Jafarpour, F. H.

    2016-11-01

    This paper deals with the properties of the stochastic generators of the effective (driven) processes associated with atypical values of transition-dependent time-integrated currents with Gallavotti-Cohen symmetry in Markov jump processes. Exploiting the concept of biased ensemble of trajectories by introducing a biasing field s , we show that the stochastic generators of the effective processes associated with the biasing fields s and E -s are enantiodromic with respect to each other where E is the conjugated field to the current. We illustrate our findings by considering an exactly solvable creation-annihilation process of classical particles with nearest-neighbor interactions defined on a one-dimensional lattice.

  19. The dynamics of stochastic processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basse-O'Connor, Andreas

    In the present thesis the dynamics of stochastic processes is studied with a special attention to the semimartingale property. This is mainly motivated by the fact that semimartingales provide the class of the processes for which it is possible to define a reasonable stochastic calculus due...... average processes, and when the driving process is a Lévy or a chaos process the semimartingale property is characterized in the filtration spanned by the driving process and in the natural filtration when the latter is a Brownian motion. To obtain some of the above results an integrability of seminorm...

  20. H∞ Filtering for Networked Markovian Jump Systems with Multiple Stochastic Communication Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the H∞ filtering for a class of networked Markovian jump systems with multiple communication delays. Due to the existence of communication constraints, the measurement signal cannot arrive at the filter completely on time, and the stochastic communication delays are considered in the filter design. Firstly, a set of stochastic variables is introduced to model the occurrence probabilities of the delays. Then based on the stochastic system approach, a sufficient condition is obtained such that the filtering error system is stable in the mean-square sense and with a prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level. The optimal filter gain parameters can be determined by solving a convex optimization problem. Finally, a simulation example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed filter design method.

  1. An introduction to probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Melsa, James L

    2013-01-01

    Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.

  2. Binary jumps in continuum. II. Non-equilibrium process and a Vlasov-type scaling limit

    CERN Document Server

    Finkelshtein, Dmitri; Kutoviy, Oleksandr; Lytvynov, Eugene

    2011-01-01

    Let $\\Gamma$ denote the space of all locally finite subsets (configurations) in $\\mathbb R^d$. A stochastic dynamics of binary jumps in continuum is a Markov process on $\\Gamma$ in which pairs of particles simultaneously hop over $\\mathbb R^d$. We discuss a non-equilibrium dynamics of binary jumps. We prove the existence of an evolution of correlation functions on a finite time interval. We also show that a Vlasov-type mesoscopic scaling for such a dynamics leads to a generalized Boltzmann non-linear equation for the particle density.

  3. Jump processes on leaves of multibranching trees

    CERN Document Server

    Albeverio, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    The p-adic numbers have found applications in a wide range of diverse fields of research. In some applications the algebraic properties of p-adics enter as an indispensable ingredient of the theory. Another class of applications has to do with hierarchical tree like systems. In this context the applications are based on the well known correspondence between p-adics and the trees with p-branches emerging from every branching point. Then the algebraic structure does not enter and p-adics are used merely as a labeling system for the tree branches. We introduce a space of numerical sequences suitable for labeling the trees with varying number of branches emerging from the branching points. We equipe this space with a non Archimedian metric and describe its basic topological properties. We also demonstrate that the known construction of the stochastic processes on p-adics carry over to the stochastic processes on the above mentioned space and hence on the corresponding trees.

  4. A New Class of Backward Stochastic Partial Differential Equations with Jumps and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Wanyang

    2011-01-01

    We formulate a new class of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), named high-order vector backward SPDEs (B-SPDEs) with jumps, which allow the high-order integral-partial differential operators into both drift and diffusion coefficients. Under certain type of Lipschitz and linear growth conditions, we develop a method to prove the existence and uniqueness of adapted solution to these B-SPDEs with jumps. Comparing with the existing discussions on conventional backward stochastic (ordinary) differential equations (BSDEs), we need to handle the differentiability of adapted triplet solution to the B-SPDEs with jumps, which is a subtle part in justifying our main results due to the inconsistency of differential orders on two sides of the B-SPDEs and the partial differential operator appeared in the diffusion coefficient. In addition, we also address the issue about the B-SPDEs under certain Markovian random environment and employ a B-SPDE with strongly nonlinear partial differential operator in the dr...

  5. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  6. Stochastic Stability of Nonlinear Sampled Data Systems with a Jump Linear Controller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Oscar R.; Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Gray, W. Steven

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the stability of a sampled- data system consisting of a deterministic, nonlinear, time- invariant, continuous-time plant and a stochastic, discrete- time, jump linear controller. The jump linear controller mod- els, for example, computer systems and communication net- works that are subject to stochastic upsets or disruptions. This sampled-data model has been used in the analysis and design of fault-tolerant systems and computer-control systems with random communication delays without taking into account the inter-sample response. To analyze stability, appropriate topologies are introduced for the signal spaces of the sampled- data system. With these topologies, the ideal sampling and zero-order-hold operators are shown to be measurable maps. This paper shows that the known equivalence between the stability of a deterministic, linear sampled-data system and its associated discrete-time representation as well as between a nonlinear sampled-data system and a linearized representation holds even in a stochastic framework.

  7. Stochastic Equations for Two-type Continuous-state Branching Processes with Immigration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ru Gang MA

    2013-01-01

    A two-dimensional stochastic integral equation system with jumps is studied.We first prove its unique weak solution is a two-type continuous-state branching process with immigration.Then the comparison property of the solution is established.These results imply the existence and uniqueness of the strong solution of the stochastic equation system.

  8. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

  9. Optimal harvesting of a stochastic delay logistic model with Lévy jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Hong; Deng, Wenmin

    2016-10-01

    The optimal harvesting problem of a stochastic time delay logistic model with Lévy jumps is considered in this article. We first show that the model has a unique global positive solution and discuss the uniform boundedness of its pth moment with harvesting. Then we prove that the system is globally attractive and asymptotically stable in distribution under our assumptions. Furthermore, we obtain the existence of the optimal harvesting effort by the ergodic method, and then we give the explicit expression of the optimal harvesting policy and maximum yield.

  10. Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinfeng Ruan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.

  11. Robust fuzzy control for stochastic Markovian jumping systems via sliding mode method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bei; Jia, Tinggang; Niu, Yugang

    2016-07-01

    This paper considers the problem of sliding mode control for stochastic Markovian jumping systems by means of fuzzy method. The Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy stochastic model subject to state-dependent noise is presented. A key feature in this work is to remove the restricted condition that each local system model had to share the same input channel, which is usually assumed in some existing results. The integral sliding surface is constructed for every mode and the connections among various sliding surfaces are established via a set of coupled matrices. Moreover, the present sliding mode controller including the transition rates of modes can cope with the effect of Markovian switching. It is shown that both the reachability of sliding surfaces and the stability of sliding mode dynamics can be ensured. Finally, numerical simulation results are given.

  12. Non-cooperative stochastic differential game theory of generalized Markov jump linear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Cheng-ke; Zhou, Hai-ying; Bin, Ning

    2017-01-01

    This book systematically studies the stochastic non-cooperative differential game theory of generalized linear Markov jump systems and its application in the field of finance and insurance. The book is an in-depth research book of the continuous time and discrete time linear quadratic stochastic differential game, in order to establish a relatively complete framework of dynamic non-cooperative differential game theory. It uses the method of dynamic programming principle and Riccati equation, and derives it into all kinds of existence conditions and calculating method of the equilibrium strategies of dynamic non-cooperative differential game. Based on the game theory method, this book studies the corresponding robust control problem, especially the existence condition and design method of the optimal robust control strategy. The book discusses the theoretical results and its applications in the risk control, option pricing, and the optimal investment problem in the field of finance and insurance, enriching the...

  13. Stochastic Processes in Gravitropism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmine eMeroz

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In this short review we focus on the role of noise in gravitropism of plants - the reorientation of plants according to the direction of gravity. We briefly introduce the conventional picture of static gravisensing in cells specialized in sensing. This model hinges on the sedimentation of statoliths (high in density and mass relative to other organelles to the lowest part of the sensing cell. We then present experimental observations that cannot currently be understood within this framework. Lastly we introduce some current alternative models and directions that attempt to incorporate and interpret these experimental observations, including: (i {it dynamic sensing}, where gravisensing is suggested to be enhanced by stochastic events due to thermal and mechanical noise. These events both effectively lower the threshold of response, and lead to small-distance sedimentation, allowing amplification and integration of the signal. (ii The role of the cytoskeleton in signal-to-noise modulation and (iii in signal transduction. In closing, we discuss directions that seem to either not have been explored, or that are still poorly understood.

  14. Stochastic resin transfer molding process

    CERN Document Server

    Park, M

    2016-01-01

    We consider one-dimensional and two-dimensional models of stochastic resin transfer molding process, which are formulated as random moving boundary problems. We study their properties, analytically in the one-dimensional case and numerically in the two-dimensional case. We show how variability of time to fill depends on correlation lengths and smoothness of a random permeability field.

  15. Fourier analysis and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Brémaud, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    This work is unique as it provides a uniform treatment of the Fourier theories of functions (Fourier transforms and series, z-transforms), finite measures (characteristic functions, convergence in distribution), and stochastic processes (including arma series and point processes). It emphasises the links between these three themes. The chapter on the Fourier theory of point processes and signals structured by point processes is a novel addition to the literature on Fourier analysis of stochastic processes. It also connects the theory with recent lines of research such as biological spike signals and ultrawide-band communications. Although the treatment is mathematically rigorous, the convivial style makes the book accessible to a large audience. In particular, it will be interesting to anyone working in electrical engineering and communications, biology (point process signals) and econometrics (arma models). A careful review of the prerequisites (integration and probability theory in the appendix, Hilbert spa...

  16. The Ergodicity of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations with Lévy Jump

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Li ZHOU; Zhen Ting HOU

    2011-01-01

    In this article,the authors prove the uniqueness in law of a class of stochastic equations in infinite dimension,then we apply it to establish the existence and uniqueness of invariant measure of the generalized stochastic partial differential equation perturbed by Lévy process.

  17. Stochastic conditional intensity processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauwens, Luc; Hautsch, Nikolaus

    2006-01-01

    model allows for a wide range of (cross-)autocorrelation structures in multivariate point processes. The model is estimated by simulated maximum likelihood (SML) using the efficient importance sampling (EIS) technique. By modeling price intensities based on NYSE trading, we provide significant evidence...

  18. Robust H-infinity filter design for uncertain time-delay singular stochastic systems with Markovian jump

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of H-infinity filter design for uncertain time-delay singular stochastic systems with Markovian jump.Based on the extended It(o) stochastic differential formula,sufficient conditions for the solvability of these problems are obtained.Furthermore,It is shown that a desired filter can be constructed by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities.Finally,a simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  19. Infinite horizon jump-diffusion forward-backward stochastic differential equations and their application to backward linear-quadratic problems

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Zhiyong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate infinite horizon jump-diffusion forward-backward stochastic differential equations under some monotonicity conditions. We establish an existence and uniqueness theorem, two stability results and a comparison theorem for solutions to such kind of equations. Then the theoretical results are applied to study a kind of infinite horizon backward stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problems, and then differential game problems. The unique optimal controls for t...

  20. Characterisation of stochastically-induced climate jumps to other histories paced by the astronomical forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Saedeleer, B.

    2012-04-01

    The mystery of ice ages induced by a varying incoming solar radiation has drawn ceaseless attention for several decades. A pleiad of paleoclimatic models has been developed in order to have a try at catching the underlying climate dynamics, and their validity is challenged by comparison with typical milestones in paleoclimatic records. In several published works, the astronomical forcing synchronises the climate to a unique climatic attracting trajectory representing the ice volume evolution. Other studies, though, reported multistability, i.e. the fact that several climatic attracting trajectories could coexist for some given set of parameters, in a deterministic framework. More importantly, it has been illustrated that additional disturbances may cause some 'jumps' from one trajectory to other ones in the climatic history over the last millions years of the Pleistocene. These stochastic effects hence indirectly affect the timing of the glacial inceptions and terminations. The jumping mechanism is closely linked to the widely spread hypothesis that the glacial-interglacial cycles could be primarily triggered by random internal climate variability. A conjecture has recently been made that these externally triggered jumps are the most likely when the temporary desynchronisation (positive largest local Lyapunov exponent) due to the loss of local stability coalesces with the weakening of the global stability due to the proximity to the basin boundary. No proof of this conjecture has however been provided sofar; it is precisely the aim of the present research to assess the conditions for such a jump to occur. We uncover the details of the underlying mechanisms by providing a systematic numerical study of the conditions under which these jumps are likely to occur. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments are performed in order to show that the jumps occur preferentially at specific times or locations in the phase space, for a given level of noise. We show how the most critical

  1. Stochastic processes and filtering theory

    CERN Document Server

    Jazwinski, Andrew H

    2007-01-01

    This unified treatment of linear and nonlinear filtering theory presents material previously available only in journals, and in terms accessible to engineering students. Its sole prerequisites are advanced calculus, the theory of ordinary differential equations, and matrix analysis. Although theory is emphasized, the text discusses numerous practical applications as well.Taking the state-space approach to filtering, this text models dynamical systems by finite-dimensional Markov processes, outputs of stochastic difference, and differential equations. Starting with background material on probab

  2. Importance sampling for jump processes and applications to finance

    OpenAIRE

    Badouraly Kassim, Laetitia; Lelong, Jérôme; Loumrhari, Imane

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Adaptive importance sampling techniques are widely known for the Gaussian setting of Brownian driven diffusions. In this work, we want to extend them to jump processes. Our approach relies on a change of the jump intensity combined with the standard exponential tilting for the Brownian motion. The free parameters of our framework are optimized using sample average approximation techniques. We illustrate the efficiency of our method on the valuation of financial derivat...

  3. Robustness of Quadratic Hedging Strategies in Finance via Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Nunno, Giulia, E-mail: giulian@math.uio.no [University of Oslo, Center of Mathematics for Applications (Norway); Khedher, Asma, E-mail: asma.khedher@tum.de [Technische Universität München, Chair of Mathematical Finance (Germany); Vanmaele, Michèle, E-mail: michele.vanmaele@ugent.be [Ghent University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each candidate-approximation converges to the solution of the original BSDEJ in a space which we specify. We use this result to investigate in further detail the consequences of the choice of the model to (partial) hedging in incomplete markets in finance. As an application, we consider models in which the small variations in the price dynamics are modeled with a Poisson random measure with infinite activity and models in which these small variations are modeled with a Brownian motion or are cut off. Using the convergence results on BSDEJs, we show that quadratic hedging strategies are robust towards the approximation of the market prices and we derive an estimation of the model risk.

  4. Motoneuron membrane potentials follow a time inhomogeneous jump diffusion process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jahn, Patrick; Berg, Rune W; Hounsgaard, Jørn

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic leaky integrate-and-fire models are popular due to their simplicity and statistical tractability. They have been widely applied to gain understanding of the underlying mechanisms for spike timing in neurons, and have served as building blocks for more elaborate models. Especially...... models can only be applied over short time windows. However, experimental data show varying time constants, state dependent noise, a graded firing threshold and time-inhomogeneous input. In the present study we build a jump diffusion model that incorporates these features, and introduce a firing...

  5. Mathematical statistics and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Bosq, Denis

    2013-01-01

    Generally, books on mathematical statistics are restricted to the case of independent identically distributed random variables. In this book however, both this case AND the case of dependent variables, i.e. statistics for discrete and continuous time processes, are studied. This second case is very important for today's practitioners.Mathematical Statistics and Stochastic Processes is based on decision theory and asymptotic statistics and contains up-to-date information on the relevant topics of theory of probability, estimation, confidence intervals, non-parametric statistics and rob

  6. Mean-Square Convergence of Drift-Implicit One-Step Methods for Neutral Stochastic Delay Differential Equations with Jump Diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Hu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A class of drift-implicit one-step schemes are proposed for the neutral stochastic delay differential equations (NSDDEs driven by Poisson processes. A general framework for mean-square convergence of the methods is provided. It is shown that under certain conditions global error estimates for a method can be inferred from estimates on its local error. The applicability of the mean-square convergence theory is illustrated by the stochastic θ-methods and the balanced implicit methods. It is derived from Theorem 3.1 that the order of the mean-square convergence of both of them for NSDDEs with jumps is 1/2. Numerical experiments illustrate the theoretical results. It is worth noting that the results of mean-square convergence of the stochastic θ-methods and the balanced implicit methods are also new.

  7. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  8. Neural network connectivity and response latency modelled by stochastic processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tamborrino, Massimiliano

    is connected to thousands of other neurons. The rst question is: how to model neural networks through stochastic processes? A multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, obtained as a diffusion approximation of a jump process, is the proposed answer. Obviously, dependencies between neurons imply dependencies......Stochastic processes and their rst passage times have been widely used to describe the membrane potential dynamics of single neurons and to reproduce neuronal spikes, respectively.However, cerebral cortex in human brains is estimated to contain 10-20 billions of neurons and each of them...... between their spike times. Therefore, the second question is: how to detect neural network connectivity from simultaneously recorded spike trains? Answering this question corresponds to investigate the joint distribution of sequences of rst passage times. A non-parametric method based on copulas...

  9. Prescription-induced jump distributions in multiplicative Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suweis, Samir; Porporato, Amilcare; Rinaldo, Andrea; Maritan, Amos

    2011-06-01

    Generalized Langevin equations (GLE) with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual prescription dilemma leading to different evolution equations (master equations) for the probability distribution. Contrary to the case of multiplicative Gaussian white noise, the Stratonovich prescription does not correspond to the well-known midpoint (or any other intermediate) prescription. By introducing an inertial term in the GLE, we show that the Itô and Stratonovich prescriptions naturally arise depending on two time scales, one induced by the inertial term and the other determined by the jump event. We also show that, when the multiplicative noise is linear in the random variable, one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We apply these results to a recently proposed stochastic model describing the dynamics of primary soil salinization, in which the salt mass balance within the soil root zone requires the analysis of different prescriptions arising from the resulting stochastic differential equation forced by multiplicative white Poisson noise, the features of which are tailored to the characters of the daily precipitation. A method is finally suggested to infer the most appropriate prescription from the data.

  10. Population Density Equations for Stochastic Processes with Memory Kernels

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Yi Ming

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel method for solving population density equations, where the populations can be subject to non-Markov noise for arbitrary distributions of jump sizes. There are important advantages over earlier methods: instead of introducing an extra dimension, we find that the history of the noise process can always be accounted for by the convolution of a kernel of limited depth with a history of the density, rendering the method more efficient. Excitatory and inhibitory input contributions can be treated on equal footing. Transient results can be modeled accurately, which is of vital importance as population density methods are increasingly used to model neural circuits. This method can be used in network simulations where analytic results are not available. The method cleanly separates deterministic and stochastic processes, leaving only the evolution of the stochastic process to be solved. This allows for a direct incorporation of novel developments in the theory of random walks. We demonstrate this by...

  11. Ambit processes and stochastic partial differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

    Ambit processes are general stochastic processes based on stochastic integrals with respect to Lévy bases. Due to their flexible structure, they have great potential for providing realistic models for various applications such as in turbulence and finance. This papers studies the connection between...... ambit processes and solutions to stochastic partial differential equations. We investigate this relationship from two angles: from the Walsh theory of martingale measures and from the viewpoint of the Lévy noise analysis....

  12. THE ERGODICITY OF STOCHASTIC GENERALIZED POROUS MEDIA EQUATIONS WITH LEVY JUMP

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou Guoli; Hou Zhenting

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we first prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the stochastic generalized porous medium equation perturbed by Levy process, and then show the exponential convergence of (pt)t≥0 to equilibrium uniform on any bounded subset in H.

  13. The Viability Property of Controlled Jump Diffusion Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi Ge PENG; Xue Hong ZHU

    2008-01-01

    In this paper,we first give a comparison theorem of viscosity solution to some nonlinear second order integrodifferential equation.And then using the comparison theorem,we obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the viability property of some controlled jump diffusion processes which can keep the solution within a constraint K.

  14. Nonlinear Stochastic H∞ Control with Markov Jumps and (x,u,v-Dependent Noise: Finite and Infinite Horizon Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Sheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the H∞ control problem for nonlinear stochastic Markov jump systems with state, control, and external disturbance-dependent noise. By means of inequality techniques and coupled Hamilton-Jacobi inequalities, both finite and infinite horizon H∞ control designs of such systems are developed. Two numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed design method.

  15. A Gallavotti-Cohen-Evans-Morriss Like Symmetry for a Class of Markov Jump Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barato, Andre Cardoso; Chetrite, Raphaël; Hinrichsen, Haye; Mukamel, David

    2012-01-01

    We investigate a new symmetry of the large deviation function of certain time-integrated currents in non-equilibrium systems. The symmetry is similar to the well-known Gallavotti-Cohen-Evans-Morriss-symmetry for the entropy production, but it concerns a different functional of the stochastic trajectory. The symmetry can be found in a restricted class of Markov jump processes, where the network of microscopic transitions has a particular structure and the transition rates satisfy certain constraints. We provide three physical examples, where time-integrated observables display such a symmetry. Moreover, we argue that the origin of the symmetry can be traced back to time-reversal if stochastic trajectories are grouped appropriately.

  16. ECE6010 - Stochastic Processes, Spring 2006

    OpenAIRE

    Moon, Todd K.

    2006-01-01

    This course provides an introduction to stochastic processes in communications, signal processing, digital and computer systems, and control. Topics include continuous and discrete random processes, correlation and power spectral density, optimal filtering, Markov chains, and queuing theory. Technical Requirements: MATLAB

  17. Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); UTM Center for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)

    2015-10-22

    The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution.

  18. Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granita, Bahar, Arifah

    2015-10-01

    The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution.

  19. PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR A DISCRETELY OBSERVED STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL WITH JUMPS IN THE VOLATILITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    In this paper a stochastic volatility model is considered. That is, a log price process Y whichis given in terms of a volatility process V is studied. The latter is defined such that the logprice possesses some of the properties empirically observed by Barndorff-Nielsen & Jiang[6]. Inthe model there are two sets of unknown parameters, one set corresponding to the marginaldistribution of V and one to autocorrelation of V. Based on discrete time observations ofthe log price the authors discuss how to estimate the parameters appearing in the marginaldistribution and find the asymptotic properties.

  20. Phylogenetic analysis using Lévy processes: finding jumps in the evolution of continuous traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Michael J; Schraiber, Joshua G; Liang, Mason

    2013-03-01

    Gaussian processes, a class of stochastic processes including Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, are widely used to model continuous trait evolution in statistical phylogenetics. Under such processes, observations at the tips of a phylogenetic tree have a multivariate Gaussian distribution, which may lead to suboptimal model specification under certain evolutionary conditions, as supposed in models of punctuated equilibrium or adaptive radiation. To consider non-normally distributed continuous trait evolution, we introduce a method to compute posterior probabilities when modeling continuous trait evolution as a Lévy process. Through data simulation and model testing, we establish that single-rate Brownian motion (BM) and Lévy processes with jumps generate distinct patterns in comparative data. We then analyzed body mass and endocranial volume measurements for 126 primates. We rejected single-rate BM in favor of a Lévy process with jumps for each trait, with the lineage leading to most recent common ancestor of great apes showing particularly strong evidence against single-rate BM.

  1. Pricing Asian power options under jump-fraction process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Peng

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A framework for pricing Asian power options is developed when the underlying asset follows a jump-fraction process. The partial differential equation (PDE in the fractional environment with jump is constructed for such option using general Itô's lemma and self-financing dynamic strategy. With the boundary condition, an analytic formula for the option with geometric average starting at any time before maturity is derived by solving the PDE, and the option with arithmetic average is evaluated in Monte Carlo simulation using control variate technique with the help of the above analytic solution. Overwhelming numerical evidence indicates that the technique proposed is computationally efficient and dramatically improves the accuracy of the simulated price. Moreover, this study will pave a novel way to copy with the option contracts based on thinly-traded assets like oil, or currencies or interest rates.

  2. Modelling and application of stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    1986-01-01

    The subject of modelling and application of stochastic processes is too vast to be exhausted in a single volume. In this book, attention is focused on a small subset of this vast subject. The primary emphasis is on realization and approximation of stochastic systems. Recently there has been considerable interest in the stochastic realization problem, and hence, an attempt has been made here to collect in one place some of the more recent approaches and algorithms for solving the stochastic realiza­ tion problem. Various different approaches for realizing linear minimum-phase systems, linear nonminimum-phase systems, and bilinear systems are presented. These approaches range from time-domain methods to spectral-domain methods. An overview of the chapter contents briefly describes these approaches. Also, in most of these chapters special attention is given to the problem of developing numerically ef­ ficient algorithms for obtaining reduced-order (approximate) stochastic realizations. On the application side,...

  3. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  4. Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, B.

    1974-01-01

    A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

  5. Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf

    Understanding the process of economic growth involves comparing competing theoretical models and evaluating their empirical relevance. Our approach is to take the neoclassical stochastic growth model directly to the data and make inferences about the model parameters of interest. In this paper, o...

  6. Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf

    Understanding the process of economic growth involves comparing competing theoretical models and evaluating their empirical relevance. Our approach is to take the neoclassical stochastic growth model directly to the data and make inferences about the model parameters of interest. In this paper, o...

  7. Transport properties of stochastic Lorentz models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beijeren, H. van

    1982-01-01

    Diffusion processes are considered for one-dimensional stochastic Lorentz models, consisting of randomly distributed fixed scatterers and one moving light particle. In waiting time Lorentz models the light particle makes instantaneous jumps between scatterers after a stochastically distributed waiti

  8. Neural network connectivity and response latency modelled by stochastic processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tamborrino, Massimiliano

    is connected to thousands of other neurons. The rst question is: how to model neural networks through stochastic processes? A multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, obtained as a diffusion approximation of a jump process, is the proposed answer. Obviously, dependencies between neurons imply dependencies...... between their spike times. Therefore, the second question is: how to detect neural network connectivity from simultaneously recorded spike trains? Answering this question corresponds to investigate the joint distribution of sequences of rst passage times. A non-parametric method based on copulas...... generation of pikes. When a stimulus is applied to the network, the spontaneous rings may prevail and hamper detection of the effects of the stimulus. Therefore, the spontaneous rings cannot be ignored and the response latency has to be detected on top of a background signal. Everything becomes more dicult...

  9. Stability analysis of Markovian jumping stochastic Cohen—Grossberg neural networks with discrete and distributed time varying delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Syed, Ali

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, the global asymptotic stability problem of Markovian jumping stochastic Cohen—Grossberg neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays (MJSCGNNs) is considered. A novel LMI-based stability criterion is obtained by constructing a new Lyapunov functional to guarantee the asymptotic stability of MJSCGNNs. Our results can be easily verified and they are also less restrictive than previously known criteria and can be applied to Cohen—Grossberg neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and cellular neural networks. Finally, the proposed stability conditions are demonstrated with numerical examples.

  10. Selected papers on noise and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Wax, Nelson

    1954-01-01

    Six classic papers on stochastic process, selected to meet the needs of physicists, applied mathematicians, and engineers. Contents: 1.Chandrasekhar, S.: Stochastic Problems in Physics and Astronomy. 2. Uhlenbeck, G. E. and Ornstein, L. S.: On the Theory of the Browninan Motion. 3. Ming Chen Wang and Uhlenbeck, G. E.: On the Theory of the Browninan Motion II. 4. Rice, S. O.: Mathematical Analysis of Random Noise. 5. Kac, Mark: Random Walk and the Theory of Brownian Motion. 6. Doob, J. L.: The Brownian Movement and Stochastic Equations. Unabridged republication of the Dover reprint (1954). Pre

  11. A fast exact simulation method for a class of Markov jump processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yao, E-mail: yaoli@math.umass.edu [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts 10003 (United States); Hu, Lili, E-mail: lilyhu86@gmail.com [School of Mathematics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332 (United States)

    2015-11-14

    A new method of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), named the Hashing-Leaping method (HLM), for exact simulations of a class of Markov jump processes, is presented in this paper. The HLM has a conditional constant computational cost per event, which is independent of the number of exponential clocks in the Markov process. The main idea of the HLM is to repeatedly implement a hash-table-like bucket sort algorithm for all times of occurrence covered by a time step with length τ. This paper serves as an introduction to this new SSA method. We introduce the method, demonstrate its implementation, analyze its properties, and compare its performance with three other commonly used SSA methods in four examples. Our performance tests and CPU operation statistics show certain advantages of the HLM for large scale problems.

  12. A fast exact simulation method for a class of Markov jump processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yao; Hu, Lili

    2015-11-01

    A new method of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), named the Hashing-Leaping method (HLM), for exact simulations of a class of Markov jump processes, is presented in this paper. The HLM has a conditional constant computational cost per event, which is independent of the number of exponential clocks in the Markov process. The main idea of the HLM is to repeatedly implement a hash-table-like bucket sort algorithm for all times of occurrence covered by a time step with length τ. This paper serves as an introduction to this new SSA method. We introduce the method, demonstrate its implementation, analyze its properties, and compare its performance with three other commonly used SSA methods in four examples. Our performance tests and CPU operation statistics show certain advantages of the HLM for large scale problems.

  13. Stochastic simulation of supercritical fluid extraction processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mizutani F. T.

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Process simulation involves the evaluation of output variables by the specification of input variables and process parameters. However, in a real process, input data and parameters cannot be known without uncertainty. This fact may limit the utilization of simulation results to predict plant behavior. In order to achieve a more realistic analysis, the procedure of stochastic simulation can be conducted. This technique is based on a large set of simulation runs where input variables and parameters are randomly selected according to adequate probability density functions. The objective of this work is to illustrate the application of a stochastic simulation procedure to the process of fractionation of orange essential oil, using supercritical carbon dioxide in a multistage extraction column. Analysis of the proposed example demonstrates the importance of the stochastic simulation to develop more reliable designs and operating conditions for a supercritical fluid extraction process.

  14. Long-Term Behaviors of Stochastic Interest Rate Models with Jumps and Memory

    CERN Document Server

    Bao, Jianhai

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we show the convergence of the long-term return $t^{-\\mu}\\int_0^tX(s)\\d s$ for some $\\mu\\geq1$, where $X$ is the short-term interest rate which follows an extension of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type model with jumps and memory, and, as an application, we also investigate the corresponding behavior of two-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model with jumps and memory

  15. From individual to collective behaviour of coupled velocity jump processes: A locust example

    KAUST Repository

    Erban, Radek

    2012-11-01

    A class of stochastic individual-based models, written in terms of coupled velocity jump processes, is presented and analysed. This modelling approach incorporates recent experimental findings on the behaviour of locusts. It exhibits nontrivial dynamics with a pitchfork bifurcation and recovers the observed group directional switching. Estimates of the expected switching times, in terms of the number of individuals and values of the model coefi-cients, are obtained using the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. In the limit of large populations, a system of two kinetic equations (with nonlocal and nonlinear right hand side) is derived and analyzed. The existence of its solutions is proven and the system\\'s long-time behaviour is investigated. Finally, a first step towards the mean field limit of topological interactions is made by studying the efiect of shrinking the interaction radius in the individual-based model. © American Institute of Mathematical Sciences.

  16. Lectures on Topics in Spatial Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Capasso, Vincenzo; Ivanoff, B Gail; Dozzi, Marco; Dalang, Robert C; Mountford, Thomas S

    2003-01-01

    The theory of stochastic processes indexed by a partially ordered set has been the subject of much research over the past twenty years. The objective of this CIME International Summer School was to bring to a large audience of young probabilists the general theory of spatial processes, including the theory of set-indexed martingales and to present the different branches of applications of this theory, including stochastic geometry, spatial statistics, empirical processes, spatial estimators and survival analysis. This theory has a broad variety of applications in environmental sciences, social sciences, structure of material and image analysis. In this volume, the reader will find different approaches which foster the development of tools to modelling the spatial aspects of stochastic problems.

  17. Computer Aided Continuous Time Stochastic Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2001-01-01

    A grey-box approach to process modelling that combines deterministic and stochastic modelling is advocated for identification of models for model-based control of batch and semi-batch processes. A computer-aided tool designed for supporting decision-making within the corresponding modelling cycle...

  18. A Note on Boolean Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fidaleo, Francesco

    2015-03-01

    For the quantum stochastic processes generated by the Boolean commutation relations, we prove the following version of De Finetti Theorem: each of such Boolean processes is exchangeable if and only if it is independent and identically distributed with respect to the tail algebra.

  19. Stochastic Power Grid Analysis Considering Process Variations

    CERN Document Server

    Ghanta, Praveen; Panda, Rajendran; Wang, Janet

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the impact of interconnect and device process variations on voltage fluctuations in power grids. We consider random variations in the power grid's electrical parameters as spatial stochastic processes and propose a new and efficient method to compute the stochastic voltage response of the power grid. Our approach provides an explicit analytical representation of the stochastic voltage response using orthogonal polynomials in a Hilbert space. The approach has been implemented in a prototype software called OPERA (Orthogonal Polynomial Expansions for Response Analysis). Use of OPERA on industrial power grids demonstrated speed-ups of up to two orders of magnitude. The results also show a significant variation of about $\\pm$ 35% in the nominal voltage drops at various nodes of the power grids and demonstrate the need for variation-aware power grid analysis.

  20. Rook Jumping Maze Design Considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neller, Todd W.; Fisher, Adrian; Choga, Munyaradzi T.; Lalvani, Samir M.; McCarty, Kyle D.

    We define the Rook Jumping Maze, provide historical perspective, and describe a generation method for such mazes. When applying stochastic local search algorithms to maze design, most creative effort concerns the definition of an objective function that rates maze quality. We define and discuss several maze features to consider in such a function definition. Finally, we share our preferred design choices, make design process observations, and note the applicability of these techniques to variations of the Rook Jumping Maze.

  1. Stochastic Predator-Prey System Subject to Lévy Jumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinzhu Meng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a new nonautonomous impulsive stochastic predator-prey system with the omnivorous predator. First, we show that the system has a unique global positive solution for any given initial positive value. Second, the extinction of the system under some appropriate conditions is explored. In addition, we obtain the sufficient conditions for almost sure permanence in mean and stochastic permanence of the system by using the theory of impulsive stochastic differential equations. Finally, we discuss the biological implications of the main results and show that the large noise can make the system go extinct. Simulations are also carried out to illustrate our theoretical analysis conclusions.

  2. The construction of the program control with probability one for stochastic dynamic systems with jumps

    CERN Document Server

    Karachanskaya, Elena

    2012-01-01

    Investigate the stochastic dynamic non-linear system with the Wiener and the Poisson perturbations. For such systems we construct the program control with probability one, which allows this system to move on the given trajectory. In this case the control program is solution of the algebraic system of linear equations. Considered algorithm is based on the first integral theory for stochastic differential equations system.

  3. Convergence Analysis of Semi-Implicit Euler Methods for Solving Stochastic Age-Dependent Capital System with Variable Delays and Random Jump Magnitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinghui Du

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider semi-implicit Euler methods for stochastic age-dependent capital system with variable delays and random jump magnitudes, and investigate the convergence of the numerical approximation. It is proved that the numerical approximate solutions converge to the analytical solutions in the mean-square sense under given conditions.

  4. Limit theorems for vertex-reinforced jump processes on regular trees

    CERN Document Server

    Collevecchio, Andrea

    2009-01-01

    Consider a vertex-reinforced jump process defined on a regular tree, where each vertex has exactly $b$ children, with $b \\ge 3$. We prove the strong law of large numbers and the central limit theorem for the distance of the process from the root. Notice that it is still unknown if vertex-reinforced jump process is transient on the binary tree.

  5. Stochastic transport processes in discrete biological systems

    CERN Document Server

    Frehland, Eckart

    1982-01-01

    These notes are in part based on a course for advanced students in the applications of stochastic processes held in 1978 at the University of Konstanz. These notes contain the results of re­ cent studies on the stochastic description of ion transport through biological membranes. In particular, they serve as an introduction to an unified theory of fluctuations in complex biological transport systems. We emphasize that the subject of this volume is not to introduce the mathematics of stochastic processes but to present a field of theoretical biophysics in which stochastic methods are important. In the last years the study of membrane noise has become an important method in biophysics. Valuable information on the ion transport mechanisms in membranes can be obtained from noise analysis. A number of different processes such as the opening and closing of ion channels have been shown to be sources of the measured current or voltage fluctuations. Bio­ logical 'transport systems can be complex. For example, the tr...

  6. Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aït-Sahalia, Y.; Cacho-Diaz, J.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a model designed to capture the dynamics of asset returns, with periods of crises that are characterized by contagion. In the model, a jump in one region of the world increases the intensity of jumps both in the same region (self-excitation) as well as in other regions (mutual

  7. Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aït-Sahalia, Y.; Cacho-Diaz, J.; Laeven, R.J.A.

    2015-01-01

    We propose a model to capture the dynamics of asset returns, with periods of crises that are characterized by contagion. In the model, a jump in one region of the world increases the intensity of jumps both in the same region (self-excitation) as well as in other regions (cross-excitation),

  8. Empirical likelihood inference for diffusion processes with jumps

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the empirical likelihood inference for the jump-diffusion model. We construct the confidence intervals based on the empirical likelihood for the infinitesimal moments in the jump-diffusion models. They are better than the confidence intervals which are based on the asymptotic normality of point estimates.

  9. Stochastic Stability for Time-Delay Markovian Jump Systems with Sector-Bounded Nonlinearities and More General Transition Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Ye

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with delay-dependent stochastic stability for time-delay Markovian jump systems (MJSs with sector-bounded nonlinearities and more general transition probabilities. Different from the previous results where the transition probability matrix is completely known, a more general transition probability matrix is considered which includes completely known elements, boundary known elements, and completely unknown ones. In order to get less conservative criterion, the state and transition probability information is used as much as possible to construct the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and deal with stability analysis. The delay-dependent sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities to guarantee the stability of systems. Finally, numerical examples are exploited to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  10. Optimal dividend policies with transaction costs for a class of jump-diffusion processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hunting, Martin; Paulsen, Jostein

    2013-01-01

    his paper addresses the problem of finding an optimal dividend policy for a class of jump-diffusion processes. The jump component is a compound Poisson process with negative jumps, and the drift and diffusion components are assumed to satisfy some regularity and growth restrictions. Each dividend...... payment is changed by a fixed and a proportional cost, meaning that if ξ is paid out by the company, the shareholders receive kξ−K, where k and K are positive. The aim is to maximize expected discounted dividends until ruin. It is proved that when the jumps belong to a certain class of light...

  11. Extinction and persistence of a stochastic nonlinear SIS epidemic model with jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Qing; Ji, Guilin; Xu, Jiabo; Fan, Xiaolin

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, Brownian motion and L e ´ vy jumps are introduced to a SIS type epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate. The dynamical behavior of the considered model is investigated. In order to reveal the extinction and permanence of the disease, two threshold values R˜0 ,R¯0 are showed. We find that if R˜0 1, the disease may be persistent. Finally, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our mathematical results.

  12. Stochastic Simulation of Process Calculi for Biology

    CERN Document Server

    Phillips, Andrew; Paulevé, Loïc; 10.4204/EPTCS.40.1

    2010-01-01

    Biological systems typically involve large numbers of components with complex, highly parallel interactions and intrinsic stochasticity. To model this complexity, numerous programming languages based on process calculi have been developed, many of which are expressive enough to generate unbounded numbers of molecular species and reactions. As a result of this expressiveness, such calculi cannot rely on standard reaction-based simulation methods, which require fixed numbers of species and reactions. Rather than implementing custom stochastic simulation algorithms for each process calculus, we propose to use a generic abstract machine that can be instantiated to a range of process calculi and a range of reaction-based simulation algorithms. The abstract machine functions as a just-in-time compiler, which dynamically updates the set of possible reactions and chooses the next reaction in an iterative cycle. In this short paper we give a brief summary of the generic abstract machine, and show how it can be instant...

  13. Rate Theory for Correlated Processes: Double Jumps in Adatom Diffusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, J.; Jacobsen, Karsten Wedel; Sethna, J.

    1997-01-01

    We study the rate of activated motion over multiple barriers, in particular the correlated double jump of an adatom diffusing on a missing-row reconstructed platinum (110) surface. We develop a transition path theory, showing that the activation energy is given by the minimum-energy trajectory...... which succeeds in the double jump. We explicitly calculate this trajectory within an effective-medium molecular dynamics simulation. A cusp in the acceptance region leads to a root T prefactor for the activated rate of double jumps. Theory and numerical results agree....

  14. Irreversible stochastic processes on lattices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nord, R.S.

    1986-01-01

    Models for irreversible random or cooperative filling of lattices are required to describe many processes in chemistry and physics. Since the filling is assumed to be irreversible, even the stationary, saturation state is not in equilibrium. The kinetics and statistics of these processes are described by recasting the master equations in infinite hierarchical form. Solutions can be obtained by implementing various techniques: refinements in these solution techniques are presented. Programs considered include random dimer, trimer, and tetramer filling of 2D lattices, random dimer filling of a cubic lattice, competitive filling of two or more species, and the effect of a random distribution of inactive sites on the filling. Also considered is monomer filling of a linear lattice with nearest neighbor cooperative effects and solve for the exact cluster-size distribution for cluster sizes up to the asymptotic regime. Additionally, a technique is developed to directly determine the asymptotic properties of the cluster size distribution. Finally cluster growth is considered via irreversible aggregation involving random walkers. In particular, explicit results are provided for the large-lattice-size asymptotic behavior of trapping probabilities and average walk lengths for a single walker on a lattice with multiple traps. Procedures for exact calculation of these quantities on finite lattices are also developed.

  15. Verification and Planning for Stochastic Processes with Asynchronous Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 38, no. 7: 1040–1059. Bartlett, M. S. 1966. An Introduction to Stochastic Processes with Special Reference to...Artificial Intelligence, 875–881, Madison, Wisconsin. AAAI Press. Çinlar, Erhan. 1975. Introduction to Stochastic Processes . Englewood Cliffs, New... to Stochastic Processes . Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company. Hoey, Jesse, Robert St-Aubin, Alan Hu, and Craig Boutilier. 1999. SPUDD: Stochastic

  16. POISSON TRAFFIC PROCESSES IN PURE JUMP MARKOV PROCESSES AND GENERALIZED NETWORKS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO Chengxuan; XU Guanghui

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we present the conditions under which the traffic processes in a pure jump Markov process with a general state space are Poisson processes, and give a simple proof of PASTA type theorem in Melamed (1982) and Walrand (1988).Furthermore, we consider a generalized network with phase type negative arrivals and show that the network has a product-form invariant distribution and its traffic processes which represent the customers exiting from the network are Poisson processes.

  17. A Stochastic Processes Toolkit for Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Damiano Brigo; Antonio Dalessandro; Matthias Neugebauer; Fares Triki

    2008-01-01

    In risk management it is desirable to grasp the essential statistical features of a time series representing a risk factor. This tutorial aims to introduce a number of different stochastic processes that can help in grasping the essential features of risk factors describing different asset classes or behaviors. This paper does not aim at being exhaustive, but gives examples and a feeling for practically implementable models allowing for stylised features in the data. The reader may also use t...

  18. Stochastic Simulation of Process Calculi for Biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Phillips

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems typically involve large numbers of components with complex, highly parallel interactions and intrinsic stochasticity. To model this complexity, numerous programming languages based on process calculi have been developed, many of which are expressive enough to generate unbounded numbers of molecular species and reactions. As a result of this expressiveness, such calculi cannot rely on standard reaction-based simulation methods, which require fixed numbers of species and reactions. Rather than implementing custom stochastic simulation algorithms for each process calculus, we propose to use a generic abstract machine that can be instantiated to a range of process calculi and a range of reaction-based simulation algorithms. The abstract machine functions as a just-in-time compiler, which dynamically updates the set of possible reactions and chooses the next reaction in an iterative cycle. In this short paper we give a brief summary of the generic abstract machine, and show how it can be instantiated with the stochastic simulation algorithm known as Gillespie's Direct Method. We also discuss the wider implications of such an abstract machine, and outline how it can be used to simulate multiple calculi simultaneously within a common framework.

  19. Granger causality and contiguity between stochastic processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Triacca, Umberto [Universita di L' Aquila, Roio Poggio, I-67040 L' Aquila (Italy)]. E-mail: triacca@ec.univaq.it

    2007-03-05

    Although according to many econometricians the definition of causality proposed by Granger differs from other definitions of causation in the philosophy of science, in this Letter we argue that it is not completely lacking in philosophical legitimacy. We attempt to shed new light on the nexus between Granger causality and the concept of contiguity. In particular, we prove that the existence of a Granger causal link between two stochastic processes requires that these be 'contiguous' or that there exist a chain of processes, one contiguous to the next, which link the two processes.

  20. Expectation propagation for continuous time stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cseke, Botond; Schnoerr, David; Opper, Manfred; Sanguinetti, Guido

    2016-12-01

    We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajectories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive approximations to the posterior distributions of single time marginals using variational approximate inference, giving rise to an expectation propagation type algorithm. For non-linear diffusion processes, this is achieved by leveraging moment closure approximations. We then show how the approximation can be extended to a wide class of discrete-state Markov jump processes by making use of the chemical Langevin equation. Our empirical results show that the proposed method is computationally efficient and provides good approximations for these classes of inverse problems.

  1. Minimum uncertainty and squeezing in diffusion processes and stochastic quantization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demartino, S.; Desiena, S.; Illuminati, Fabrizo; Vitiello, Giuseppe

    1994-01-01

    We show that uncertainty relations, as well as minimum uncertainty coherent and squeezed states, are structural properties for diffusion processes. Through Nelson stochastic quantization we derive the stochastic image of the quantum mechanical coherent and squeezed states.

  2. Doubly stochastic Poisson processes in artificial neural learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Card, H C

    1998-01-01

    This paper investigates neuron activation statistics in artificial neural networks employing stochastic arithmetic. It is shown that a doubly stochastic Poisson process is an appropriate model for the signals in these circuits.

  3. Modelling Real World Using Stochastic Processes and Filtration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaeger Peter

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available First we give an implementation in Mizar [2] basic important definitions of stochastic finance, i.e. filtration ([9], pp. 183 and 185, adapted stochastic process ([9], p. 185 and predictable stochastic process ([6], p. 224. Second we give some concrete formalization and verification to real world examples.

  4. Asymptotic properties of a stochastic n-species Gilpin-Ayala competitive model with Lévy jumps and Markovian switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, a stochastic n-species Gilpin-Ayala competitive model with Lévy jumps and Markovian switching is proposed and studied. Some asymptotic properties are investigated and sufficient conditions for extinction, non-persistence in the mean and weak persistence are established. The threshold between extinction and weak persistence is obtained. The results illustrate that the asymptotic properties of the considered system have close relationships with Lévy jumps and the stationary distribution of the Markovian chain. Moreover, some simulation figures are presented to confirm our main results.

  5. Jump diffusion models and the evolution of financial prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de [Institute of Physics, University of Brasilia (Brazil); Silva, Sergio da [Department of Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina (Brazil); Gleria, Iram, E-mail: iram@pq.cnpq.br [Institute of Physics, Federal University of Alagoas (Brazil)

    2011-08-08

    We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. We consider the stochastic term as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. We point to the effects of the jumps on the return time evolution, a central concern of the econophysics literature. The presence of jumps suggests that the process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. We then extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model and show the model to be capable of explaining return behavior. -- Highlights: → We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. → The stochastic term is considered as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. → The process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. → We extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model.

  6. Feller Property for a Special Hybrid Jump-Diffusion Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinying Tong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the stochastic stability for a hybrid jump-diffusion model, where the switching here is a phase semi-Markovian process. We first transform the process into a corresponding jump-diffusion with Markovian switching by the supplementary variable technique. Then we prove the Feller and strong Feller properties of the model under some assumptions.

  7. Weak convergence of marked point processes generated by crossings of multivariate jump processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tamborrino, Massimiliano; Sacerdote, Laura; Jacobsen, Martin

    2014-01-01

    We consider the multivariate point process determined by the crossing times of the components of a multivariate jump process through a multivariate boundary, assuming to reset each component to an initial value after its boundary crossing. We prove that this point process converges weakly to the ...... Integrate-and-Fire models for single neural dynamics to the case of a firing network of neurons. This will help future study of dependent spike trains....... process converging to a multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is discussed as a guideline for applying diffusion limits for jump processes. We apply our theoretical findings to neural network modeling. The proposed model gives a mathematical foundation to the generalization of the class of Leaky...

  8. Large Deviations for 2-D Stochastic Navier-Stokes Equations with Jumps%二维带跳Navier-Stokes方程解的大偏差原理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵辉艳

    2012-01-01

    在带泊松跳二维随机Navier-Stokes方程解的解的存在唯一性的基础上,利用弱收敛的方法证明了带泊松跳二维随机Navier-Stokes方程解的Freidlin-Wentzell型的大偏差原理.%In this paper,under the existence and uniqueness of the solution of stochastic 2-D Navier-Stokes equation,we prove Freidlin-Wentzell's large deviation principle for 2-D Stochastic Navier-Stokes Equation driven by multiplicative noise with Poisson jumps by using weak convergence approach.

  9. Analysis of bilinear stochastic systems. [involving multiplicative noise processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willsky, A. S.; Marcus, S. I.; Martin, D. N.

    1974-01-01

    Analysis of stochastic dynamical systems that involve multiplicative (bilinear) noise processes is considered. After defining the systems of interest, the evolution of the moments of such systems, the question of stochastic stability, and estimation for bilinear stochastic systems are discussed. Both exact and approximate methods of analysis are introduced, and, in particular, the uses of Lie-theoretic concepts and harmonic analysis are discussed.

  10. Reflected Backward Doubly Stochastic Differential Equation with Jumps%反射型的带跳倒向双重随机微分方程

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范锡良; 任永

    2009-01-01

    证明了反射型的带跳倒向双重随机微分方程的解的存在唯一性.主要方法是Snell包和不动点定理.%In this paper,we mainly prove the existence and uniqueness of a solution to reflected backward doubly stochastic differential equation with jumps.Main method is Snell envelope and the fixed point theorem.

  11. Pricing foreign equity option under stochastic volatility tempered stable Lévy processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Xiaoli; Zhuang, Xintian

    2017-10-01

    Considering that financial assets returns exhibit leptokurtosis, asymmetry properties as well as clustering and heteroskedasticity effect, this paper substitutes the logarithm normal jumps in Heston stochastic volatility model by the classical tempered stable (CTS) distribution and normal tempered stable (NTS) distribution to construct stochastic volatility tempered stable Lévy processes (TSSV) model. The TSSV model framework permits infinite activity jump behaviors of return dynamics and time varying volatility consistently observed in financial markets through subordinating tempered stable process to stochastic volatility process, capturing leptokurtosis, fat tailedness and asymmetry features of returns. By employing the analytical characteristic function and fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique, the formula for probability density function (PDF) of TSSV returns is derived, making the analytical formula for foreign equity option (FEO) pricing available. High frequency financial returns data are employed to verify the effectiveness of proposed models in reflecting the stylized facts of financial markets. Numerical analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between the corresponding parameters and the implied volatility of foreign equity option.

  12. Stationary stochastic processes for scientists and engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Lindgren, Georg; Sandsten, Maria

    2013-01-01

    ""This book is designed for a first course in stationary stochastic processes in science and engineering and does a very good job in introducing many concepts and ideas to students in these fields. … the book has probably been tested in the classroom many times, which also manifests itself in its virtual lack of typos. … Another great feature of the book is that it contains a wealth of worked example from many different fields. These help clarify concepts and theorems and I believe students will appreciate them-I certainly did. … The book is well suited for a one-semester course as it contains

  13. A first course in stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Karlin, Samuel

    1975-01-01

    The purpose, level, and style of this new edition conform to the tenets set forth in the original preface. The authors continue with their tack of developing simultaneously theory and applications, intertwined so that they refurbish and elucidate each other.The authors have made three main kinds of changes. First, they have enlarged on the topics treated in the first edition. Second, they have added many exercises and problems at the end of each chapter. Third, and most important, they have supplied, in new chapters, broad introductory discussions of several classes of stochastic processe

  14. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, a stochastic model is generated using the measured monthly water level data of the lake. The model is derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the data set. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. For the multiple-trend, the time series is first divided into homogeneous segments by means of SEGMENTER, segmentation software. Four segments are found meaningful practically each fitted with a trend line. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning future development in surrounding areas of the lake.

  15. Fractional Fick's Law for the Boundary Driven Exclusion Process with Long Jumps

    OpenAIRE

    Bernardin, Cédric; Oviedo Jimenez, Byron

    2016-01-01

    A fractional Fick's law and fractional hydrostatics for the one dimensional exclusion process with long jumps in contact with infinite reservoirs at different densities on the left and on the right are derived.

  16. REPRESENTATION OF ADDITIVE FUNCTIONALS AND LOCAL TIMES FOR JUMP MARKOV PROCESSES AND THEIR FUNCTIONAL LIMIT THEOREM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋义文; 刘禄勤

    2003-01-01

    The representation of additive functionals and local times for jump Markovprocesses are obtained. The results of uniformly functional moderate deviation and theirapplications to birth-death processes are also presented.

  17. XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Pardo, Juan; Rivero, Víctor; Bravo, Gerónimo

    2015-01-01

    This volume features lecture notes and a collection of contributed articles from the XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes, held at CIMAT Mexico in September 2013. Since the symposium was part of the activities organized in Mexico to celebrate the International Year of Statistics, the program included topics from the interface between statistics and stochastic processes. The book starts with notes from the mini-course given by Louigi Addario-Berry with an accessible description of some features of the multiplicative coalescent and its connection with random graphs and minimum spanning trees. It includes a number of exercises and a section on unanswered questions. Further contributions provide the reader with a broad perspective on the state-of-the art of active areas of research. Contributions by: Louigi Addario-Berry Octavio Arizmendi Fabrice Baudoin Jochen Blath Loïc Chaumont J. Armando Domínguez-Molina Bjarki Eldon Shui Feng Tulio Gaxiola Adrián González Casanova Evgueni Gordienko Daniel...

  18. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second model (so-called multiple-trend, the time series is divided into a number of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on the lake water level data shows that four segments, each fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the simulated lake water level.

  19. Stochastic processes from physics to finance

    CERN Document Server

    Paul, Wolfgang

    2013-01-01

    This book introduces the theory of stochastic processes with applications taken from physics and finance. Fundamental concepts like the random walk or Brownian motion but also Levy-stable distributions are discussed. Applications are selected to show the interdisciplinary character of the concepts and methods. In the second edition of the book a discussion of extreme events ranging from their mathematical definition to their importance for financial crashes was included. The exposition of basic notions of probability theory and the Brownian motion problem as well as the relation between conservative diffusion processes and quantum mechanics is expanded. The second edition also enlarges the treatment of financial markets. Beyond a presentation of geometric Brownian motion and the Black-Scholes approach to option pricing as well as the econophysics analysis of the stylized facts of financial markets, an introduction to agent based modeling approaches is given.

  20. An introduction to stochastic processes with applications to biology

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2010-01-01

    An Introduction to Stochastic Processes with Applications to Biology, Second Edition presents the basic theory of stochastic processes necessary in understanding and applying stochastic methods to biological problems in areas such as population growth and extinction, drug kinetics, two-species competition and predation, the spread of epidemics, and the genetics of inbreeding. Because of their rich structure, the text focuses on discrete and continuous time Markov chains and continuous time and state Markov processes.New to the Second EditionA new chapter on stochastic differential equations th

  1. Applied probability and stochastic processes. 2. ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feldman, Richard M. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Industrial and Systems Engineering Dept.; Valdez-Flores, Ciriaco [Sielken and Associates Consulting, Inc., Bryan, TX (United States)

    2010-07-01

    This book presents applied probability and stochastic processes in an elementary but mathematically precise manner, with numerous examples and exercises to illustrate the range of engineering and science applications of the concepts. The book is designed to give the reader an intuitive understanding of probabilistic reasoning, in addition to an understanding of mathematical concepts and principles. The initial chapters present a summary of probability and statistics and then Poisson processes, Markov chains, Markov processes and queuing processes are introduced. Advanced topics include simulation, inventory theory, replacement theory, Markov decision theory, and the use of matrix geometric procedures in the analysis of queues. Included in the second edition are appendices at the end of several chapters giving suggestions for the use of Excel in solving the problems of the chapter. Also new in this edition are an introductory chapter on statistics and a chapter on Poisson processes that includes some techniques used in risk assessment. The old chapter on queues has been expanded and broken into two new chapters: one for simple queuing processes and one for queuing networks. Support is provided through the web site http://apsp.tamu.edu where students will have the answers to odd numbered problems and instructors will have access to full solutions and Excel files for homework. (orig.)

  2. Jump diffusion models and the evolution of financial prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; de Castro, Marcio T.; da Silva, Sergio; Gleria, Iram

    2011-08-01

    We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. We consider the stochastic term as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. We point to the effects of the jumps on the return time evolution, a central concern of the econophysics literature. The presence of jumps suggests that the process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. We then extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model and show the model to be capable of explaining return behavior.

  3. Chemical kinetics, stochastic processes, and irreversible thermodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Santillán, Moisés

    2014-01-01

    This book brings theories in nonlinear dynamics, stochastic processes, irreversible thermodynamics, physical chemistry, and biochemistry together in an introductory but formal and comprehensive manner.  Coupled with examples, the theories are developed stepwise, starting with the simplest concepts and building upon them into a more general framework.  Furthermore, each new mathematical derivation is immediately applied to one or more biological systems.  The last chapters focus on applying mathematical and physical techniques to study systems such as: gene regulatory networks and ion channels. The target audience of this book are mainly final year undergraduate and graduate students with a solid mathematical background (physicists, mathematicians, and engineers), as well as with basic notions of biochemistry and cellular biology.  This book can also be useful to students with a biological background who are interested in mathematical modeling, and have a working knowledge of calculus, differential equatio...

  4. Stochastic processes and long range dependence

    CERN Document Server

    Samorodnitsky, Gennady

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is a gateway for researchers and graduate students to explore the profound, yet subtle, world of long-range dependence (also known as long memory). The text is organized around the probabilistic properties of stationary processes that are important for determining the presence or absence of long memory. The first few chapters serve as an overview of the general theory of stochastic processes which gives the reader sufficient background, language, and models for the subsequent discussion of long memory. The later chapters devoted to long memory begin with an introduction to the subject along with a brief history of its development, followed by a presentation of what is currently the best known approach, applicable to stationary processes with a finite second moment. The book concludes with a chapter devoted to the author’s own, less standard, point of view of long memory as a phase transition, and even includes some novel results. Most of the material in the book has not previously been publis...

  5. Dynamic response of mechanical systems to impulse process stochastic excitations: Markov approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwankiewicz, R.

    2016-05-01

    Methods for determination of the response of mechanical dynamic systems to Poisson and non-Poisson impulse process stochastic excitations are presented. Stochastic differential and integro-differential equations of motion are introduced. For systems driven by Poisson impulse process the tools of the theory of non-diffusive Markov processes are used. These are: the generalized Itô’s differential rule which allows to derive the differential equations for response moments and the forward integro-differential Chapman-Kolmogorov equation from which the equation governing the probability density of the response is obtained. The relation of Poisson impulse process problems to the theory of diffusive Markov processes is given. For systems driven by a class of non-Poisson (Erlang renewal) impulse processes an exact conversion of the original non-Markov problem into a Markov one is based on the appended Markov chain corresponding to the introduced auxiliary pure jump stochastic process. The derivation of the set of integro-differential equations for response probability density and also a moment equations technique are based on the forward integro-differential Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. An illustrating numerical example is also included.

  6. Stochastic differential equations and diffusion processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ikeda, N

    1989-01-01

    Being a systematic treatment of the modern theory of stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations, the theory is developed within the martingale framework, which was developed by J.L. Doob and which plays an indispensable role in the modern theory of stochastic analysis.A considerable number of corrections and improvements have been made for the second edition of this classic work. In particular, major and substantial changes are in Chapter III and Chapter V where the sections treating excursions of Brownian Motion and the Malliavin Calculus have been expanded and refined. Sectio

  7. Optimal Control of Investment-Reinsurance Problem for an Insurer with Jump-Diffusion Risk Process: Independence of Brownian Motions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De-Lei Sheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the excess-of-loss reinsurance and investment problem for a compound Poisson jump-diffusion risk process, with the risk asset price modeled by a constant elasticity of variance (CEV model. It aims at obtaining the explicit optimal control strategy and the optimal value function. Applying stochastic control technique of jump diffusion, a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equation is established. Moreover, we show that a closed-form solution for the HJB equation can be found by maximizing the insurer’s exponential utility of terminal wealth with the independence of two Brownian motions W(t and W1(t. A verification theorem is also proved to verify that the solution of HJB equation is indeed a solution of this optimal control problem. Then, we quantitatively analyze the effect of different parameter impacts on optimal control strategy and the optimal value function, which show that optimal control strategy is decreasing with the initial wealth x and decreasing with the volatility rate of risk asset price. However, the optimal value function V(t;x;s is increasing with the appreciation rate μ of risk asset.

  8. Visualisation for Stochastic Process Algebras: The Graphic Truth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, Michael James Andrew; Gilmore, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    There have historically been two approaches to performance modelling. On the one hand, textual language-based formalisms such as stochastic process algebras allow compositional modelling that is portable and easy to manage. In contrast, graphical formalisms such as stochastic Petri nets and stoch...

  9. Time Reversal of Volterra Processes Driven Stochastic Differential Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Decreusefond

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider stochastic differential equations driven by some Volterra processes. Under time reversal, these equations are transformed into past-dependent stochastic differential equations driven by a standard Brownian motion. We are then in position to derive existence and uniqueness of solutions of the Volterra driven SDE considered at the beginning.

  10. Stochastic Simulations of Cellular Biological Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-06-01

    model kinetics of a system of chemical reactions is to use a stochastic 2. Stochastic Simulation Algorithm approach in terms of the Chemical Master...number of processors and running time) for interactive disk spae ad, herfor, my ceat meory simulations. Therefore, in addition to running in an...management problems for simulations involving a large inteative mode, foNScan as o run in ’n number of long runs or for large reaction networks. interactive

  11. Stochastic resonance during a polymer translocation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Debasish; Muthukumar, M

    2016-04-14

    We have studied the occurrence of stochastic resonance when a flexible polymer chain undergoes a single-file translocation through a nano-pore separating two spherical cavities, under a time-periodic external driving force. The translocation of the chain is controlled by a free energy barrier determined by chain length, pore length, pore-polymer interaction, and confinement inside the donor and receiver cavities. The external driving force is characterized by a frequency and amplitude. By combining the Fokker-Planck formalism for polymer translocation and a two-state model for stochastic resonance, we have derived analytical formulas for criteria for emergence of stochastic resonance during polymer translocation. We show that no stochastic resonance is possible if the free energy barrier for polymer translocation is purely entropic in nature. The polymer chain exhibits stochastic resonance only in the presence of an energy threshold in terms of polymer-pore interactions. Once stochastic resonance is feasible, the chain entropy controls the optimal synchronization conditions significantly.

  12. Robust stability analysis for Markovian jumping stochastic neural networks with mode-dependent time-varying interval delay and multiplicative noise

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Hua-Guang; Fu Jie; Ma Tie-Dong; Tong Shao-Cheng

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the problem of robust stability for a class of Markovian jumping stochastic neural networks (MJSNNs) subject to mode-dependent time-varying interval delay and state-multiplicative noise.Based on the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and a stochastic analysis approach,some new delay-dependent sufficient conditions are obtained in the linear matrix inequality (LMI) format such that delayed MJSNNs are globally asymptotically stable in the mean-square sense for all admissible uncertainties.An important feature of the results is that the stability criteria are dependent on not only the lower bound and upper bound of delay for all modes but also the covariance matrix consisting of the correlation coefficient.Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness.

  13. Multiresolution stochastic simulations of reaction-diffusion processes.

    OpenAIRE

    Bayati, B; Chatelain, P.; Koumoutsakos, P.

    2008-01-01

    Stochastic simulations of reaction-diffusion processes are used extensively for the modeling of complex systems in areas ranging from biology and social sciences to ecosystems and materials processing. These processes often exhibit disparate scales that render their simulation prohibitive even for massive computational resources. The problem is resolved by introducing a novel stochastic multiresolution method that enables the efficient simulation of reaction-diffusion processes as modeled by ...

  14. Research on Production Process Control Method Combined Stochastic Process Algebra and Stochastic Petri Nets

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Chang; SHI Haibo

    2006-01-01

    A hierarchical closed-loop production control scheme integrating scheduling, control and performance evaluation is discussed. Firstly, the production process is divided into two main hierarchies: the lower level is the physical operation level and the upper one is the management level. Secondly, the schedule template for the management level and the activity template for the physical operation level are constructed separately, the tasks in the schedule have the ability to make partial decisions, and the performance parameters are introduced into activity template. Thirdly, the two levels use different model representations: stochastic process algebra for the management level whose output is the control commands and stochastic Petri net for the physical operation level which is the execution of the control commands. Then, the integration of the two levels is the control commands mapping into the lower physical operations and the responses feeding back to the upper decision-making that are defined by some transition functions. Under the proposed scheme, the production process control of a flexible assembly is exemplified. It is concluded that the process control model has partial ability to make decision on-line for uncertain and dynamic environments and facilitates reasoning about the behaviors of the process control, and performance evaluation can be done online for real-time scheduling to ensure the global optimization.

  15. Effect of the Kapitza temperature jump on thermal processes in nanofluids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novopashin Sergey

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Two analytical solutions describing thermal processes in a nanofluid based on spherical nanoparticles taking into account the Kapitza temperature jump on a particle-fluid boundary were found. In the first solution the thermal conductivity of nanofluids was found with the help of Maxwell approach. The second solution describes stationary heat exchange between a spherical particle and fluid in two different conditions. A dimensionless criterion characterizing the effect of the Kapitza temperature jump on thermal processes in nanofluids has been obtained in both solutions.

  16. Pure-jump processes and constitutive equations for simple thermodinamic bodies with fading memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Montanaro

    1991-05-01

    Full Text Available Can it be useful to use discontinuous jump-processes in order to formulate a somewhat different thermodynamic theory for a general simple body with fading memory? In this communication I will present the results of paper [9], where the above question is investigated. By means of a certain well defined class of quasi-processes of local pure-jump, there I set up a thermodynamic theory T* for such a body in which only the dynamic part of entropy is assumed to exist.

  17. Soil Erosion as a stochastic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casper, Markus C.

    2015-04-01

    corrected experimentally. To overcome this disadvantage of our actual models, soil erosion models are needed that are able to use stochastic directly variables and parameter distributions. There are only some minor approaches in this direction. The most advanced is the model "STOSEM" proposed by Sidorchuk in 2005. In this model, only a small part of the soil erosion processes is described, the aggregate detachment and the aggregate transport by flowing water. The concept is highly simplified, for example, many parameters are temporally invariant. Nevertheless, the main problem is that our existing measurements and experiments are not geared to provide stochastic parameters (e.g. as probability density functions); in the best case they deliver a statistical validation of the mean values. Again, we get effective parameters, spatially and temporally averaged. There is an urgent need for laboratory and field experiments on overland flow structure, raindrop effects and erosion rate, which deliver information on spatial and temporal structure of soil and surface properties and processes.

  18. Stochastic Gompertzian model for breast cancer growth process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni Binti; Rosli, Norhayati

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, a stochastic Gompertzian model is developed to describe the growth process of a breast cancer by incorporating the noisy behavior into a deterministic Gompertzian model. The prediction quality of the stochastic Gompertzian model is measured by comparing the simulated result with the clinical data of breast cancer growth. The kinetic parameters of the model are estimated via maximum likelihood procedure. 4-stage stochastic Runge-Kutta (SRK4) is used to simulate the sample path of the model. Low values of mean-square error (MSE) of stochastic model indicate good fits. It is shown that the stochastic Gompertzian model is adequate in explaining the breast cancer growth process compared to the deterministic model counterpart.

  19. Visualisation for Stochastic Process Algebras: The Graphic Truth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, Michael James Andrew; Gilmore, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    a natural interface for labelling states in the model, which integrates with our interface for specifying and model checking properties in the Continuous Stochastic Logic (CSL). We describe recent improvements to the tool in terms of usability and exploiting the visualisation framework, and discuss some......There have historically been two approaches to performance modelling. On the one hand, textual language-based formalisms such as stochastic process algebras allow compositional modelling that is portable and easy to manage. In contrast, graphical formalisms such as stochastic Petri nets...... and stochastic activity networks provide an automaton-based view of the model, which may be easier to visualise, at the expense of portability. In this paper, we argue that we can achieve the benefits of both approaches by generating a graphical view of a stochastic process algebra model, which is synchronised...

  20. Introduction to probability and stochastic processes with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Castañ, Blanco; Arunachalam, Viswanathan; Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu

    2012-01-01

    An easily accessible, real-world approach to probability and stochastic processes Introduction to Probability and Stochastic Processes with Applications presents a clear, easy-to-understand treatment of probability and stochastic processes, providing readers with a solid foundation they can build upon throughout their careers. With an emphasis on applications in engineering, applied sciences, business and finance, statistics, mathematics, and operations research, the book features numerous real-world examples that illustrate how random phenomena occur in nature and how to use probabilistic t

  1. Extreme Values of Queues, Point Processes and Stochastic Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-26

    AD-A158 619 EXTREMIE YALUES OF QUEUES POINT PROCESSES AND STOCHASTIC i/i NETUORKS(U) GEORGIA INST OF TECH ATLANTA R F SERFOZO 25 JUN 85 SFOSR-TR-85...O If "Extreme Values of Queues, Point Processes VW- and Stochastic Networks" 1 Grant No. AFOSR 84-0367 by Professor Richard F. Serfozo Industrial and...Claaraicajton) Extreme Values of Oueues. Point Processes & Stochastic Networks_ 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) R_ F_ Serfozo 13. TYPE OF REPORT 13b. TIME COVERED 14

  2. Representation Theorems for Fuzzy Random Sets and Fuzzy Stochastic Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1999-01-01

    The fuzzy static and dynamic random phenomena in an abstract separable Banach space is discussed in this paper. The representation theorems for fuzzy set-valued random sets, fuzzy random elements and fuzzy set-valued stochastic processes are obtained.

  3. Data-based inference of generators for Markov jump processes using convex optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crommelin, D.T.; Vanden-Eijnden, E.

    2009-01-01

    A variational approach to the estimation of generators for Markov jump processes from discretely sampled data is discussed and generalized. In this approach, one first calculates the spectrum of the discrete maximum likelihood estimator for the transition matrix consistent with the discrete data. Th

  4. Constructing stochastic models from deterministic process equations by propensity adjustment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Jialiang

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA for chemical reactions admits three kinds of elementary processes, namely, mass action reactions of 0th, 1st or 2nd order. All other types of reaction processes, for instance those containing non-integer kinetic orders or following other types of kinetic laws, are assumed to be convertible to one of the three elementary kinds, so that SSA can validly be applied. However, the conversion to elementary reactions is often difficult, if not impossible. Within deterministic contexts, a strategy of model reduction is often used. Such a reduction simplifies the actual system of reactions by merging or approximating intermediate steps and omitting reactants such as transient complexes. It would be valuable to adopt a similar reduction strategy to stochastic modelling. Indeed, efforts have been devoted to manipulating the chemical master equation (CME in order to achieve a proper propensity function for a reduced stochastic system. However, manipulations of CME are almost always complicated, and successes have been limited to relative simple cases. Results We propose a rather general strategy for converting a deterministic process model into a corresponding stochastic model and characterize the mathematical connections between the two. The deterministic framework is assumed to be a generalized mass action system and the stochastic analogue is in the format of the chemical master equation. The analysis identifies situations: where a direct conversion is valid; where internal noise affecting the system needs to be taken into account; and where the propensity function must be mathematically adjusted. The conversion from deterministic to stochastic models is illustrated with several representative examples, including reversible reactions with feedback controls, Michaelis-Menten enzyme kinetics, a genetic regulatory motif, and stochastic focusing. Conclusions The construction of a stochastic

  5. Hyperfinite Dirichlet Forms and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Albeverio, Sergio; Herzberg, Frederik

    2011-01-01

    This monograph treats the theory of Dirichlet forms from a comprehensive point of view, using 'nonstandard analysis'. Thus, it is close in spirit to the discrete classical formulation of Dirichlet space theory by Beurling and Deny (1958). The discrete infinitesimal setup makes it possible to study the diffusion and the jump part using essentially the same methods. This setting has the advantage of being independent of special topological properties of the state space and in this sense is a natural one, valid for both finite- and infinite-dimensional spaces. The present monograph provides a tho

  6. Stochastic similarities between hydroclimatic processes for variability characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yannis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Gournari, Naya; Deligiannis, Ilias; Kastis, Paris; Nasika, Xristina; Lerias, Eleutherios; Moustakis, Yannis; Petsiou, Amalia; Sotiriadou, Alexia; Stefanidis, Eleutherios; Tyrogiannis, Vassilis; Feloni, Elisavet; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2016-04-01

    The most important hydroclimatic processes such as temperature, dew point, wind, precipitation and river discharges are investigated for their stochastic behaviour on annual scale through several historical records. We investigate the stochastic similarities between them in terms of long-term persistence and we comment on their statistical variability giving emphasis on the last period. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  7. Stochastic Processes via the Pathway Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arak M. Mathai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available After collecting data from observations or experiments, the next step is to analyze the data to build an appropriate mathematical or stochastic model to describe the data so that further studies can be done with the help of the model. In this article, the input-output type mechanism is considered first, where reaction, diffusion, reaction-diffusion, and production-destruction type physical situations can fit in. Then techniques are described to produce thicker or thinner tails (power law behavior in stochastic models. Then the pathway idea is described where one can switch to different functional forms of the probability density function through a parameter called the pathway parameter. The paper is a continuation of related solar neutrino research published previously in this journal.

  8. Extremes of independent stochastic processes: a point process approach

    CERN Document Server

    Dombry, Clément

    2011-01-01

    For each $n\\geq 1$, let $ {X_{in}, \\quad i \\geq 1} $ be independent copies of a nonnegative continuous stochastic process $X_{n}=(X_n(t))_{t\\in T}$ indexed by a compact metric space $T$. We are interested in the process of partial maxima [\\tilde M_n(u,t) =\\max {X_{in}(t), 1 \\leq i\\leq [nu]},\\quad u\\geq 0,\\ t\\in T.] where the brackets $[\\,\\cdot\\,]$ denote the integer part. Under a regular variation condition on the sequence of processes $X_n$, we prove that the partial maxima process $\\tilde M_n$ weakly converges to a superextremal process $\\tilde M$ as $n\\to\\infty$. We use a point process approach based on the convergence of empirical measures. Properties of the limit process are investigated: we characterize its finite-dimensional distributions, prove that it satisfies an homogeneous Markov property, and show in some cases that it is max-stable and self-similar. Convergence of further order statistics is also considered. We illustrate our results on the class of log-normal processes in connection with some r...

  9. Multivariate Markov processes for stochastic systems with delays: application to the stochastic Gompertz model with delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, T D

    2002-07-01

    Using the method of steps, we describe stochastic processes with delays in terms of Markov diffusion processes. Thus, multivariate Langevin equations and Fokker-Planck equations are derived for stochastic delay differential equations. Natural, periodic, and reflective boundary conditions are discussed. Both Ito and Stratonovich calculus are used. In particular, our Fokker-Planck approach recovers the generalized delay Fokker-Planck equation proposed by Guillouzic et al. The results obtained are applied to a model for population growth: the Gompertz model with delay and multiplicative white noise.

  10. Adaptive mesh refinement for stochastic reaction-diffusion processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayati, Basil; Chatelain, Philippe; Koumoutsakos, Petros

    2011-01-01

    We present an algorithm for adaptive mesh refinement applied to mesoscopic stochastic simulations of spatially evolving reaction-diffusion processes. The transition rates for the diffusion process are derived on adaptive, locally refined structured meshes. Convergence of the diffusion process is presented and the fluctuations of the stochastic process are verified. Furthermore, a refinement criterion is proposed for the evolution of the adaptive mesh. The method is validated in simulations of reaction-diffusion processes as described by the Fisher-Kolmogorov and Gray-Scott equations.

  11. Coupling and Strong Feller for Jump Processes on Banach Spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Feng-Yu

    2011-01-01

    By using lower bound conditions of the L\\'evy measure w.r.t. a nice reference measure, the coupling and strong Feller properties are investigated for the Markov semigroup associated with a class of linear SDEs driven by (non-cylindrical) L\\'evy processes on a Banach space. Unlike in the finite-dimensional case where these properties have also been confirmed for L\\'evy processes without drift, in the infinite-dimensional setting the appearance of a drift term is essential to ensure the quasi-invariance of the process by shifting the initial data. Gradient estimates and exponential convergence are also investigated. The main results are illustrated by specific models on the Wiener space and separable Hilbert spaces.

  12. Fast Quantum Algorithm for Predicting Descriptive Statistics of Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams Colin P.

    1999-01-01

    Stochastic processes are used as a modeling tool in several sub-fields of physics, biology, and finance. Analytic understanding of the long term behavior of such processes is only tractable for very simple types of stochastic processes such as Markovian processes. However, in real world applications more complex stochastic processes often arise. In physics, the complicating factor might be nonlinearities; in biology it might be memory effects; and in finance is might be the non-random intentional behavior of participants in a market. In the absence of analytic insight, one is forced to understand these more complex stochastic processes via numerical simulation techniques. In this paper we present a quantum algorithm for performing such simulations. In particular, we show how a quantum algorithm can predict arbitrary descriptive statistics (moments) of N-step stochastic processes in just O(square root of N) time. That is, the quantum complexity is the square root of the classical complexity for performing such simulations. This is a significant speedup in comparison to the current state of the art.

  13. Quantum Dynamics as a Stochastic Process

    CERN Document Server

    Figueiredo, J M A

    2002-01-01

    We study the classical motion of a particle subject to a stochastic force. We then present a perturbative schema for the associated Fokker-Planck equation where, in the limit of a vanishingly small noise source, a consistent dynamical model is obtained. The resulting theory is similar to Quantum Mechanics, having the same field equations for probability measures, the same operator structure and symmetric ordering of operators. The model is valid for general electromagnetic interaction as well as many body systems with mutual interactions of general nature.

  14. Numerical simulations of piecewise deterministic Markov processes with an application to the stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Shaojie; Qian, Min; Qian, Hong; Zhang, Xuejuan

    2016-12-01

    The stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model is one of the best-known examples of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), in which the electrical potential across a cell membrane, V(t), is coupled with a mesoscopic Markov jump process representing the stochastic opening and closing of ion channels embedded in the membrane. The rates of the channel kinetics, in turn, are voltage-dependent. Due to this interdependence, an accurate and efficient sampling of the time evolution of the hybrid stochastic systems has been challenging. The current exact simulation methods require solving a voltage-dependent hitting time problem for multiple path-dependent intensity functions with random thresholds. This paper proposes a simulation algorithm that approximates an alternative representation of the exact solution by fitting the log-survival function of the inter-jump dwell time, H(t), with a piecewise linear one. The latter uses interpolation points that are chosen according to the time evolution of the H(t), as the numerical solution to the coupled ordinary differential equations of V(t) and H(t). This computational method can be applied to all PDMPs. Pathwise convergence of the approximated sample trajectories to the exact solution is proven, and error estimates are provided. Comparison with a previous algorithm that is based on piecewise constant approximation is also presented.

  15. Numerical simulations of piecewise deterministic Markov processes with an application to the stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Shaojie; Qian, Min; Qian, Hong; Zhang, Xuejuan

    2016-12-28

    The stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model is one of the best-known examples of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), in which the electrical potential across a cell membrane, V(t), is coupled with a mesoscopic Markov jump process representing the stochastic opening and closing of ion channels embedded in the membrane. The rates of the channel kinetics, in turn, are voltage-dependent. Due to this interdependence, an accurate and efficient sampling of the time evolution of the hybrid stochastic systems has been challenging. The current exact simulation methods require solving a voltage-dependent hitting time problem for multiple path-dependent intensity functions with random thresholds. This paper proposes a simulation algorithm that approximates an alternative representation of the exact solution by fitting the log-survival function of the inter-jump dwell time, H(t), with a piecewise linear one. The latter uses interpolation points that are chosen according to the time evolution of the H(t), as the numerical solution to the coupled ordinary differential equations of V(t) and H(t). This computational method can be applied to all PDMPs. Pathwise convergence of the approximated sample trajectories to the exact solution is proven, and error estimates are provided. Comparison with a previous algorithm that is based on piecewise constant approximation is also presented.

  16. Analysis of Evolutionary Processes of Species Jump in Waterfowl Parvovirus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Wentao; Sun, Zhaoyu; Shen, Tongtong; Xu, Danning; Huang, Kehe; Zhou, Jiyong; Song, Suquan; Yan, Liping

    2017-01-01

    Waterfowl parvoviruses are classified into goose parvovirus (GPV) and Muscovy duck parvovirus (MDPV) according to their antigenic features and host preferences. A novel duck parvovirus (NDPV), identified as a new variant of GPV, is currently infecting ducks, thus causing considerable economic loss. This study analyzed the molecular evolution and population dynamics of the emerging parvovirus capsid gene to investigate the evolutionary processes concerning the host shift of NDPV. Two important amino acids changes (Asn-489 and Asn-650) were identified in NDPV, which may be responsible for host shift of NDPV. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the currently circulating NDPV originated from the GPV lineage. The Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo tree indicated that the NDPV diverged from GPV approximately 20 years ago. Evolutionary rate analyses demonstrated that GPV evolved with 7.674 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year, and the data for MDPV was 5.237 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year, whereas the substitution rate in NDPV branch was 2.25 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year. Meanwhile, viral population dynamics analysis revealed that the GPV major clade, including NDPV, grew exponentially at a rate of 1.717 year-1. Selection pressure analysis showed that most sites are subject to strong purifying selection and no positively selected sites were found in NDPV. The unique immune-epitopes in waterfowl parvovirus were also estimated, which may be helpful for the prediction of antibody binding sites against NDPV in ducks. PMID:28352261

  17. Risk-Sensitive Control of Pure Jump Process on Countable Space with Near Monotone Cost

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suresh Kumar, K., E-mail: suresh@math.iitb.ac.in; Pal, Chandan, E-mail: cpal@math.iitb.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Mathematics (India)

    2013-12-15

    In this article, we study risk-sensitive control problem with controlled continuous time pure jump process on a countable space as state dynamics. We prove multiplicative dynamic programming principle, elliptic and parabolic Harnack’s inequalities. Using the multiplicative dynamic programing principle and the Harnack’s inequalities, we prove the existence and a characterization of optimal risk-sensitive control under the near monotone condition.

  18. Stochastic Interest Model Based on Compound Poisson Process and Applications in Actuarial Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilong Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering stochastic behavior of interest rates in financial market, we construct a new class of interest models based on compound Poisson process. Different from the references, this paper describes the randomness of interest rates by modeling the force of interest with Poisson random jumps directly. To solve the problem in calculation of accumulated interest force function, one important integral technique is employed. And a conception called the critical value is introduced to investigate the validity condition of this new model. We also discuss actuarial present values of several life annuities under this new interest model. Simulations are done to illustrate the theoretical results and the effect of parameters in interest model on actuarial present values is also analyzed.

  19. A practical guide to stochastic simulations of reaction-diffusion processes

    OpenAIRE

    Erban, Radek; Chapman, Jonathan; Maini, Philip

    2007-01-01

    A practical introduction to stochastic modelling of reaction-diffusion processes is presented. No prior knowledge of stochastic simulations is assumed. The methods are explained using illustrative examples. The article starts with the classical Gillespie algorithm for the stochastic modelling of chemical reactions. Then stochastic algorithms for modelling molecular diffusion are given. Finally, basic stochastic reaction-diffusion methods are presented. The connections between stochastic simul...

  20. Classical and spatial stochastic processes with applications to biology

    CERN Document Server

    Schinazi, Rinaldo B

    2014-01-01

    The revised and expanded edition of this textbook presents the concepts and applications of random processes with the same illuminating simplicity as its first edition, but with the notable addition of substantial modern material on biological modeling. While still treating many important problems in fields such as engineering and mathematical physics, the book also focuses on the highly relevant topics of cancerous mutations, influenza evolution, drug resistance, and immune response. The models used elegantly apply various classical stochastic models presented earlier in the text, and exercises are included throughout to reinforce essential concepts. The second edition of Classical and Spatial Stochastic Processes is suitable as a textbook for courses in stochastic processes at the advanced-undergraduate and graduate levels, or as a self-study resource for researchers and practitioners in mathematics, engineering, physics, and mathematical biology. Reviews of the first edition: An appetizing textbook for a f...

  1. Analyzing Properties of Stochastic Business Processes By Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

    2013-01-01

    This chapter presents an approach to precise formal analysis of business processes with stochastic properties. The method presented here allows for both qualitative and quantitative properties to be individually analyzed at design time without requiring a full specification. This provides...... an effective means to explore possible designs for a business process and to debug any flaws....

  2. ? filtering for stochastic systems driven by Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Bo; Wu, Zheng-Guang; Park, Ju H.; Shi, Guodong; Zhang, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the ? filtering problem for stochastic systems driven by Poisson processes. By utilising the martingale theory such as the predictable projection operator and the dual predictable projection operator, this paper transforms the expectation of stochastic integral with respect to the Poisson process into the expectation of Lebesgue integral. Then, based on this, this paper designs an ? filter such that the filtering error system is mean-square asymptotically stable and satisfies a prescribed ? performance level. Finally, a simulation example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filtering scheme.

  3. LMI Approach to Exponential Stability and Almost Sure Exponential Stability for Stochastic Fuzzy Markovian-Jumping Cohen-Grossberg Neural Networks with Nonlinear p-Laplace Diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruofeng Rao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The robust exponential stability of delayed fuzzy Markovian-jumping Cohen-Grossberg neural networks (CGNNs with nonlinear p-Laplace diffusion is studied. Fuzzy mathematical model brings a great difficulty in setting up LMI criteria for the stability, and stochastic functional differential equations model with nonlinear diffusion makes it harder. To study the stability of fuzzy CGNNs with diffusion, we have to construct a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional in non-matrix form. But stochastic mathematical formulae are always described in matrix forms. By way of some variational methods in W1,p(Ω, Itô formula, Dynkin formula, the semi-martingale convergence theorem, Schur Complement Theorem, and LMI technique, the LMI-based criteria on the robust exponential stability and almost sure exponential robust stability are finally obtained, the feasibility of which can efficiently be computed and confirmed by computer MatLab LMI toolbox. It is worth mentioning that even corollaries of the main results of this paper improve some recent related existing results. Moreover, some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and less conservatism of the proposed method due to the significant improvement in the allowable upper bounds of time delays.

  4. Anomalous scaling of stochastic processes and the Moses effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lijian; Bassler, Kevin E.; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

    2017-04-01

    The state of a stochastic process evolving over a time t is typically assumed to lie on a normal distribution whose width scales like t1/2. However, processes in which the probability distribution is not normal and the scaling exponent differs from 1/2 are known. The search for possible origins of such "anomalous" scaling and approaches to quantify them are the motivations for the work reported here. In processes with stationary increments, where the stochastic process is time-independent, autocorrelations between increments and infinite variance of increments can cause anomalous scaling. These sources have been referred to as the Joseph effect and the Noah effect, respectively. If the increments are nonstationary, then scaling of increments with t can also lead to anomalous scaling, a mechanism we refer to as the Moses effect. Scaling exponents quantifying the three effects are defined and related to the Hurst exponent that characterizes the overall scaling of the stochastic process. Methods of time series analysis that enable accurate independent measurement of each exponent are presented. Simple stochastic processes are used to illustrate each effect. Intraday financial time series data are analyzed, revealing that their anomalous scaling is due only to the Moses effect. In the context of financial market data, we reiterate that the Joseph exponent, not the Hurst exponent, is the appropriate measure to test the efficient market hypothesis.

  5. Extending Newtonian Dynamics to Include Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    2009-01-01

    A paper presents further results of continuing research reported in several previous NASA Tech Briefs articles, the two most recent being Stochastic Representations of Chaos Using Terminal Attractors (NPO-41519), [Vol. 30, No. 5 (May 2006), page 57] and Physical Principle for Generation of Randomness (NPO-43822) [Vol. 33, No. 5 (May 2009), page 56]. This research focuses upon a mathematical formalism for describing post-instability motions of a dynamical system characterized by exponential divergences of trajectories leading to chaos (including turbulence as a form of chaos). The formalism involves fictitious control forces that couple the equations of motion of the system with a Liouville equation that describes the evolution of the probability density of errors in initial conditions. These stabilizing forces create a powerful terminal attractor in probability space that corresponds to occurrence of a target trajectory with probability one. The effect in configuration space (ordinary three-dimensional space as commonly perceived) is to suppress exponential divergences of neighboring trajectories without affecting the target trajectory. As a result, the post-instability motion is represented by a set of functions describing the evolution of such statistical quantities as expectations and higher moments, and this representation is stable.

  6. Stochastic analysis in production process and ecology under uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Bieda, Bogusław

    2014-01-01

    The monograph addresses a problem of stochastic analysis based on the uncertainty assessment by simulation and application of this method in ecology and steel industry under uncertainty. The first chapter defines the Monte Carlo (MC) method and random variables in stochastic models. Chapter two deals with the contamination transport in porous media. Stochastic approach for Municipal Solid Waste transit time contaminants modeling using MC simulation has been worked out. The third chapter describes the risk analysis of the waste to energy facility proposal for Konin city, including the financial aspects. Environmental impact assessment of the ArcelorMittal Steel Power Plant, in Kraków - in the chapter four - is given. Thus, four scenarios of the energy mix production processes were studied. Chapter five contains examples of using ecological Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) - a relatively new method of environmental impact assessment - which help in preparing pro-ecological strategy, and which can lead to reducing t...

  7. Fast Quantum Algorithms for Numerical Integrals and Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, D.; Williams, C.

    1999-01-01

    We discuss quantum algorithms that calculate numerical integrals and descriptive statistics of stochastic processes. With either of two distinct approaches, one obtains an exponential speed increase in comparison to the fastest known classical deterministic algotithms and a quadratic speed increase incomparison to classical Monte Carlo methods.

  8. Conditional Stochastic Processes Applied to Wave Load Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2015-01-01

    The concept of conditional stochastic processes provides a powerful tool for evaluation and estimation of wave loads on ships and offshore structures. This article first considers conditional waves with a focus on critical wave episodes. Then the inherent uncertainty in the results is illustrated...

  9. Counting statistics of non-markovian quantum stochastic processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flindt, Christian; Novotny, T.; Braggio, A.

    2008-01-01

    We derive a general expression for the cumulant generating function (CGF) of non-Markovian quantum stochastic transport processes. The long-time limit of the CGF is determined by a single dominating pole of the resolvent of the memory kernel from which we extract the zero-frequency cumulants of t...

  10. Gene regulation and noise reduction by coupling of stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre F.; Hornos, José Eduardo M.; Reinitz, John

    2015-02-01

    Here we characterize the low-noise regime of a stochastic model for a negative self-regulating binary gene. The model has two stochastic variables, the protein number and the state of the gene. Each state of the gene behaves as a protein source governed by a Poisson process. The coupling between the two gene states depends on protein number. This fact has a very important implication: There exist protein production regimes characterized by sub-Poissonian noise because of negative covariance between the two stochastic variables of the model. Hence the protein numbers obey a probability distribution that has a peak that is sharper than those of the two coupled Poisson processes that are combined to produce it. Biochemically, the noise reduction in protein number occurs when the switching of the genetic state is more rapid than protein synthesis or degradation. We consider the chemical reaction rates necessary for Poisson and sub-Poisson processes in prokaryotes and eucaryotes. Our results suggest that the coupling of multiple stochastic processes in a negative covariance regime might be a widespread mechanism for noise reduction.

  11. Stochastic process switching when the time is ripe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veestraeten, D.

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic process switching typically links one mode (absorption or reflection) with one choice on timing (state- or time-contingent). Sutherland (1995) combined absorption with both choices on timing allowing the switch to take place at first hitting or at a given point of time, whichever date com

  12. Exponential Stability of Stochastic Delayed Neural Networks with Inverse Hölder Activation Functions and Markovian Jump Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingwei Li

    2014-01-01

    properties, the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium point for SNNs without noise perturbations are proved. Secondly, by applying the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach, stochastic analysis theory, and linear matrix inequality (LMI technique, new delay-dependent sufficient criteria are achieved in terms of LMIs to ensure the SNNs with noise perturbations to be globally exponentially stable in the mean square. Finally, two simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the validity of the theoretical results.

  13. Method for generating two coupled Gaussian stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Jamali, Tayeb

    2016-01-01

    Most processes in nature are coupled; however, extensive null models for generating such processes still lacks. We present a new method to generate two coupled Gaussian stochastic processes with arbitrary correlation functions. This method is developed by modifying the Fourier filtering method. The robustness of this method is proved by generating two coupled fractional Brownian motions and extending its range of application to Gaussian random fields.

  14. Multiresolution stochastic simulations of reaction-diffusion processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayati, Basil; Chatelain, Philippe; Koumoutsakos, Petros

    2008-10-21

    Stochastic simulations of reaction-diffusion processes are used extensively for the modeling of complex systems in areas ranging from biology and social sciences to ecosystems and materials processing. These processes often exhibit disparate scales that render their simulation prohibitive even for massive computational resources. The problem is resolved by introducing a novel stochastic multiresolution method that enables the efficient simulation of reaction-diffusion processes as modeled by many-particle systems. The proposed method quantifies and efficiently handles the associated stiffness in simulating the system dynamics and its computational efficiency and accuracy are demonstrated in simulations of a model problem described by the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation. The method is general and can be applied to other many-particle models of physical processes.

  15. Cox process representation and inference for stochastic reaction-diffusion processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnoerr, David; Grima, Ramon; Sanguinetti, Guido

    2016-05-01

    Complex behaviour in many systems arises from the stochastic interactions of spatially distributed particles or agents. Stochastic reaction-diffusion processes are widely used to model such behaviour in disciplines ranging from biology to the social sciences, yet they are notoriously difficult to simulate and calibrate to observational data. Here we use ideas from statistical physics and machine learning to provide a solution to the inverse problem of learning a stochastic reaction-diffusion process from data. Our solution relies on a non-trivial connection between stochastic reaction-diffusion processes and spatio-temporal Cox processes, a well-studied class of models from computational statistics. This connection leads to an efficient and flexible algorithm for parameter inference and model selection. Our approach shows excellent accuracy on numeric and real data examples from systems biology and epidemiology. Our work provides both insights into spatio-temporal stochastic systems, and a practical solution to a long-standing problem in computational modelling.

  16. Stochastic processes and applications diffusion processes, the Fokker-Planck and Langevin equations

    CERN Document Server

    Pavliotis, Grigorios A

    2014-01-01

    This book presents various results and techniques from the theory of stochastic processes that are useful in the study of stochastic problems in the natural sciences. The main focus is analytical methods, although numerical methods and statistical inference methodologies for studying diffusion processes are also presented. The goal is the development of techniques that are applicable to a wide variety of stochastic models that appear in physics, chemistry and other natural sciences. Applications such as stochastic resonance, Brownian motion in periodic potentials and Brownian motors are studied and the connection between diffusion processes and time-dependent statistical mechanics is elucidated.                 The book contains a large number of illustrations, examples, and exercises. It will be useful for graduate-level courses on stochastic processes for students in applied mathematics, physics and engineering. Many of the topics covered in this book (reversible diffusions, convergence to eq...

  17. LINEAR QUADRATIC NONZERO-SUM DIFFERENTIAL GAMES WITH RANDOM JUMPS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Zhen; YU Zhi-yong

    2005-01-01

    The existence and uniqueness of the solutions for one kind of forwardbackward stochastic differential equations with Brownian motion and Poisson process as the noise source were given under the monotone conditions. Then these results were applied to nonzero-sum differential games with random jumps to get the explicit form of the open-loop Nash equilibrium point by the solution of the forward-backward stochastic differential equations.

  18. 跳扩散模型中随机利率和随机波动下期权定价%Option pricing in jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张素梅

    2012-01-01

    To describe the real volatility of stock returns, this paper provides a rational model through allowing for stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility rate in the double exponential jump-diffusion model. Subsequently, a closed-form solution for European call option is derived under the proposed model. Furthermore, the effects of main parameters on option prices are analyzed using numerical simulation. Simulations show that the model is suitable for modeling real-market changes. Stock returns are negatively correlated with volatility and stochastic interest rate has a significant impact on long term option values.%为合理刻画股价实际变化趋势,在双指数跳扩散模型中通过允许利率随机和波动率随机建立了合理的市场模型;然后利用鞅方法推导了随机利率、随机波动率下双指数跳扩散模型的欧式期权定价的闭式解;最后通过数值模拟分析了模型的主要参数对期权定价的影响.数值结果显示:所提模型能够较好地刻画股价实际变化趋势,股票收益和波动率负相关,随机利率对短期到期期权影响几乎可以忽略,而对长期到期期权价格影响显著.

  19. Dividend Maximization when Cash Reserves Follow a Jump-diffusion Process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI LI-LI; FENG JIN-GHAI; SONG LI-XIN

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the dividend optimization problem for an insur-ance company, whose surplus follows a jump-diffusion process. The objective of the company is to maximize the expected total discounted dividends paid out until the time of ruin. Under concavity assumption on the optimal value function, the paper states some general properties and, in particular, smoothness results on the optimal value function, whose analysis mainly relies on viscosity solutions of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations. Based on these properties, the explicit expression of the optimal value function is obtained. And some numerical calculations are presented as the application of the results.

  20. Random Designs for Estimating Integrals of Stochastic Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Schoenfelder, Carol; Cambanis, Stamatis

    1982-01-01

    The integral of a second-order stochastic process $Z$ over a $d$-dimensional domain is estimated by a weighted linear combination of observations of $Z$ in a random design. The design sample points are possibly dependent random variables and are independent of the process $Z$, which may be nonstationary. Necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained for the mean squared error of a random design estimator to converge to zero as the sample size increases towards infinity. Simple random, stra...

  1. Finite-time stability and stabilization for stochastic markov jump systems with mode-dependent time delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Zhiguo; Song, Yunxia; Park, Ju H

    2017-05-01

    This paper is concerned with the problems of finite-time stability and stabilization for stochastic Markov systems with mode-dependent time-delays. In order to reduce conservatism, a mode-dependent approach is utilized. Based on the derived stability conditions, state-feedback controller and observer-based controller are designed, respectively. A new N-mode algorithm is given to obtain the maximum value of time-delay. Finally, an example is used to show the merit of the proposed results. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Stochastic MPC with applications to process control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurado, I.; Millán, P.; Quevedo, D.; Rubio, F. R.

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents a model predictive control formulation for Networked Control Systems subject to independent and identically distributed delays and packet dropouts. The design takes into account the presence of a communication network in the control loop, resorting to a buffer at the actuator side to store and consistently apply delayed control sequences when fresh control inputs are not available. The proposed approach uses a statistical description of transmissions to optimise the expected future control performance conditioned upon the current system state, previously calculated control packets and transmission acknowledgements. Experimental studies using a quadruple tank process illustrate the applicability of the method to process control.

  3. Stochasticity in processes fundamentals and applications to chemistry and biology

    CERN Document Server

    Schuster, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This book has developed over the past fifteen years from a modern course on stochastic chemical kinetics for graduate students in physics, chemistry and biology. The first part presents a systematic collection of the mathematical background material needed to understand probability, statistics, and stochastic processes as a prerequisite for the increasingly challenging practical applications in chemistry and the life sciences examined in the second part. Recent advances in the development of new techniques and in the resolution of conventional experiments at nano-scales have been tremendous: today molecular spectroscopy can provide insights into processes down to scales at which current theories at the interface of physics, chemistry and the life sciences cannot be successful without a firm grasp of randomness and its sources. Routinely measured data is now sufficiently accurate to allow the direct recording of fluctuations. As a result, the sampling of data and the modeling of relevant processes are doomed t...

  4. Unrelated Machine Scheduling with Stochastic Processing Times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Skutella, Martin; Sviridenko, Maxim; Uetz, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Two important characteristics encountered in many real-world scheduling problems are heterogeneous processors and a certain degree of uncertainty about the processing times of jobs. In this paper we address both, and study for the first time a scheduling problem that combines the classical unrelated

  5. Unrelated Machine Scheduling with Stochastic Processing Times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Skutella, Martin; Sviridenko, Maxim; Uetz, Marc Jochen

    Two important characteristics encountered in many real-world scheduling problems are heterogeneous processors and a certain degree of uncertainty about the processing times of jobs. In this paper we address both, and study for the first time a scheduling problem that combines the classical unrelated

  6. 5th Seminar on Stochastic Processes, Random Fields and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Russo, Francesco; Dozzi, Marco

    2008-01-01

    This volume contains twenty-eight refereed research or review papers presented at the 5th Seminar on Stochastic Processes, Random Fields and Applications, which took place at the Centro Stefano Franscini (Monte Verità) in Ascona, Switzerland, from May 30 to June 3, 2005. The seminar focused mainly on stochastic partial differential equations, random dynamical systems, infinite-dimensional analysis, approximation problems, and financial engineering. The book will be a valuable resource for researchers in stochastic analysis and professionals interested in stochastic methods in finance. Contributors: Y. Asai, J.-P. Aubin, C. Becker, M. Benaïm, H. Bessaih, S. Biagini, S. Bonaccorsi, N. Bouleau, N. Champagnat, G. Da Prato, R. Ferrière, F. Flandoli, P. Guasoni, V.B. Hallulli, D. Khoshnevisan, T. Komorowski, R. Léandre, P. Lescot, H. Lisei, J.A. López-Mimbela, V. Mandrekar, S. Méléard, A. Millet, H. Nagai, A.D. Neate, V. Orlovius, M. Pratelli, N. Privault, O. Raimond, M. Röckner, B. Rüdiger, W.J. Runggaldi...

  7. Simulating river meandering processes using stochastic bank erosion coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Ari J.; Duan, Jennifer G.

    2012-08-01

    This study first compares the first order analytical solutions for flow field by Ikeda et. al. (1981) and Johanesson and Parker (1989b). Ikeda et. al.'s (1981) linear model of bank erosion was implemented to predict the rate of bank erosion in which the bank erosion coefficient is treated as a stochastic variable that varies with physical properties of the bank (e.g. cohesiveness, stratigraphy, vegetation density). The developed model was used to predict the evolution of meandering planforms. Then, the modeling results were analyzed and compared to the observed data. Because the migration of meandering channels consists of downstream translation, lateral expansion, and downstream or upstream rotations, several measures are formulated to determine which of the resulting planform is closest to the experimental measured one. Results from the deterministic model highly depend on the calibrated erosion coefficient. Because field measurements are always limited, the stochastic model yielded more realistic predictions of meandering planform evolutions. Because the coefficient of bank erosion is a random variable, the meandering planform evolution is a stochastic process that can only be accurately predicted by a stochastic model.

  8. Stochastic processes dominate during boreal bryophyte community assembly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, Nicole J; Bergeron, Yves

    2013-09-01

    Why are plant species found in certain locations and not in others? The study of community assembly rules has attempted to answer this question, and many studies articulate the historic dichotomy of deterministic (predictable niches) vs. stochastic (random or semi-random processes). The study of successional sequences to determine whether they converge, as would be expected by deterministic theory, or diverge, as stochastic theory would suggest, has been one method used to investigate this question. In this article we ask the question: Do similar boreal bryophyte communities develop in the similar habitat created by convergent succession after fires of different severities? Or do the stochastic processes generated by fires of different severity lead to different communities? Specifically we predict that deterministic structure will be more important for large forest-floor species than stochastic processes, and that the inverse will be true for small bryophyte species. We used multivariate regression trees and model selection to determine the relative weight of structure (forest structure, substrates, soil structure) and processes (fire severity) for two groups of bryophyte species sampled in 12 sites (seven high-severity and five low-severity fires). Contrary to our first hypothesis, processes were as important for large forest-floor bryophytes as for small pocket species. Fire severity, its interaction with the quality of available habitat, and its impact on the creation of biological legacies played dominant roles in determining community structure. In this study, sites with nearly identical forest structure, generated via convergent succession after high- and low-severity fire, were compared to see whether these sites supported similar bryophyte communities. While similar to some degree, both the large forest-floor species and the pocket species differed after high-severity fire compared to low-severity fire. This result suggests that the "how," or process of

  9. Prediction Theory of Periodically Correlated Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-12

    in order to do a reliable forecasting of periodically correlated sequences with large period (or continuous time processes) the standard method of...aimed at sequences with large periods. It has been known already for years that in order to do a reliable forecasting of periodically correlated...we showed that this technique is very efficient. We successfully used it to study structure, regularity, autoregressive representation, innovation

  10. Stochastic Integrals and Processes with Independent Increments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-03-01

    bounded variation over every finite La interval. This will be case iff it is the case for all a > 0. The process 4(t), t > 0, will be assumed to be...the sample paths of are of bounded variation over [O,t] with probability one, and so, as Kallenberg noted, one may simple use the Lebesgue-Stieltjes...over (O,t]. Assume further that f IdM(xs) < -, i.e. that almost every path of aJx[0, ti is of bounded variation over [O,t]. Let dlI denote the total

  11. Discrete stochastic processes and optimal filtering

    CERN Document Server

    Bertein, Jean-Claude

    2012-01-01

    Optimal filtering applied to stationary and non-stationary signals provides the most efficient means of dealing with problems arising from the extraction of noise signals. Moreover, it is a fundamental feature in a range of applications, such as in navigation in aerospace and aeronautics, filter processing in the telecommunications industry, etc. This book provides a comprehensive overview of this area, discussing random and Gaussian vectors, outlining the results necessary for the creation of Wiener and adaptive filters used for stationary signals, as well as examining Kalman filters which ar

  12. Mean-square exponential stability of the semi-implicit Euler method for stochastic delay differential equations with jumps%带跳随机延迟微分方程半隐式Euler 方法的均方指数稳定性

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐丽丽; 刘翙

    2014-01-01

    研究带跳随机延迟微分方程半隐式Euler方法的均方指数稳定性。将半隐式Euler方法应用到维纳过程和泊松过程驱动下的非线性随机延迟微分方程上进行讨论,给出了半隐式Euler方法的均方指数稳定性的条件。%In this paper ,the authors investigated the mean square exponential stability of the semi -implicit Euler method for stochastic delay differential equations with jumps .The semi implicit Euler method applied to the nonlinear stochastic delay dif -ferential equations which driven by Wiener process and Poisson process , and gave conditions about mean square exponential stability of the semi-implicit Euler method .

  13. Weak convergence of marked point processes generated by crossings of multivariate jump processes. Applications to neural network modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamborrino, Massimiliano; Sacerdote, Laura; Jacobsen, Martin

    2014-11-01

    We consider the multivariate point process determined by the crossing times of the components of a multivariate jump process through a multivariate boundary, assuming to reset each component to an initial value after its boundary crossing. We prove that this point process converges weakly to the point process determined by the crossing times of the limit process. This holds for both diffusion and deterministic limit processes. The almost sure convergence of the first passage times under the almost sure convergence of the processes is also proved. The particular case of a multivariate Stein process converging to a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is discussed as a guideline for applying diffusion limits for jump processes. We apply our theoretical findings to neural network modeling. The proposed model gives a mathematical foundation to the generalization of the class of Leaky Integrate-and-Fire models for single neural dynamics to the case of a firing network of neurons. This will help future study of dependent spike trains.

  14. Novel Robust Exponential Stability of Markovian Jumping Impulsive Delayed Neural Networks of Neutral-Type with Stochastic Perturbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Fang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The robust exponential stability problem for a class of uncertain impulsive stochastic neural networks of neutral-type with Markovian parameters and mixed time-varying delays is investigated. By constructing a proper exponential-type Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and employing Jensen integral inequality, free-weight matrix method, some novel delay-dependent stability criteria that ensure the robust exponential stability in mean square of the trivial solution of the considered networks are established in the form of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. The proposed results do not require the derivatives of discrete and distributed time-varying delays to be 0 or smaller than 1. Moreover, the main contribution of the proposed approach compared with related methods lies in the use of three types of impulses. Finally, two numerical examples are worked out to verify the effectiveness and less conservativeness of our theoretical results over existing literature.

  15. Multitime correlation functions in nonclassical stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumm, F.; Sperling, J.; Vogel, W.

    2016-06-01

    A general method is introduced for verifying multitime quantum correlations through the characteristic function of the time-dependent P functional that generalizes the Glauber-Sudarshan P function. Quantum correlation criteria are derived which identify quantum effects for an arbitrary number of points in time. The Magnus expansion is used to visualize the impact of the required time ordering, which becomes crucial in situations when the interaction problem is explicitly time dependent. We show that the latter affects the multi-time-characteristic function and, therefore, the temporal evolution of the nonclassicality. As an example, we apply our technique to an optical parametric process with a frequency mismatch. The resulting two-time-characteristic function yields full insight into the two-time quantum correlation properties of such a system.

  16. System Design Support by Optimization Method Using Stochastic Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Hiroaki; Yamaguchi, Katsuhito; Ishikawa, Yoshio

    We proposed the new optimization method based on stochastic process. The characteristics of this method are to obtain the approximate solution of the optimum solution as an expected value. In numerical calculation, a kind of Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the solution because of stochastic process. Then, it can obtain the probability distribution of the design variable because it is generated in the probability that design variables were in proportion to the evaluation function value. This probability distribution shows the influence of design variables on the evaluation function value. This probability distribution is the information which is very useful for the system design. In this paper, it is shown the proposed method is useful for not only the optimization but also the system design. The flight trajectory optimization problem for the hang-glider is shown as an example of the numerical calculation.

  17. Minimum Uncertainty, Coherence and Squeezing in Diffusion Processes, and Stochastic Quantization

    CERN Document Server

    De Martino, S; Illuminati, F; Vitiello, G; Martino, Salvatore De; Siena, Silvio De; Illuminati, Fabrizio; Vitiello, Giuseppe

    1993-01-01

    We show that uncertainty relations, as well as minimum uncertainty coherent and squeezed states, are structural properties for diffusion processes. Through Nelson stochastic quantization we derive the stochastic image of the quantum mechanical coherent and squeezed states.

  18. Stochastic equations, flows and measure-valued processes

    CERN Document Server

    Dawson, Donald A

    2010-01-01

    We first prove some general results on pathwise uniqueness, comparison property and existence of non-negative strong solutions of stochastic equations driven by white noises and Poisson random measures. The results are then used to prove the strong existence of two classes of stochastic flows associated with coalescents with multiple collisions, that is, generalized Fleming-Viot flows and flows of continuous-state branching processes with immigration. One of them unifies the different treatments of three kinds of flows in Bertoin and Le Gall (2005). Two scaling limit theorems for the generalized Fleming-Viot flows are proved, which lead to sub-critical branching immigration superprocesses. {From} those theorems we derive easily a generalization of the limit theorem for finite point motions of the flows in Bertoin and Le Gall (2006).

  19. Quantitative sociodynamics stochastic methods and models of social interaction processes

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk

    1995-01-01

    Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioural changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics but they have very often proved their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces the most important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches a very fundamental dynamic model is obtained which seems to open new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models as special cases, e.g. the log...

  20. Quantitative Sociodynamics Stochastic Methods and Models of Social Interaction Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk

    2010-01-01

    This new edition of Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioral changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics and mathematics, but they have very often proven their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences as well. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (e.g. synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches, a fundamental dynamic model is obtained, which opens new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models a...

  1. Multilevel Approximations of Markovian Jump Processes with Applications in Communication Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Vilanova, Pedro

    2015-05-04

    This thesis focuses on the development and analysis of efficient simulation and inference techniques for Markovian pure jump processes with a view towards applications in dense communication networks. These techniques are especially relevant for modeling networks of smart devices —tiny, abundant microprocessors with integrated sensors and wireless communication abilities— that form highly complex and diverse communication networks. During 2010, the number of devices connected to the Internet exceeded the number of people on Earth: over 12.5 billion devices. By 2015, Cisco’s Internet Business Solutions Group predicts that this number will exceed 25 billion. The first part of this work proposes novel numerical methods to estimate, in an efficient and accurate way, observables from realizations of Markovian jump processes. In particular, hybrid Monte Carlo type methods are developed that combine the exact and approximate simulation algorithms to exploit their respective advantages. These methods are tailored to keep a global computational error below a prescribed global error tolerance and within a given statistical confidence level. Indeed, the computational work of these methods is similar to the one of an exact method, but with a smaller constant. Finally, the methods are extended to systems with a disparity of time scales. The second part develops novel inference methods to estimate the parameters of Markovian pure jump process. First, an indirect inference approach is presented, which is based on upscaled representations and does not require sampling. This method is simpler than dealing directly with the likelihood of the process, which, in general, cannot be expressed in closed form and whose maximization requires computationally intensive sampling techniques. Second, a forward-reverse Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm is provided to approximate a local maximum or saddle point of the likelihood function of the parameters given a set of

  2. Transfer entropy in continuous time, with applications to jump and neural spiking processes

    CERN Document Server

    Spinney, Richard E; Lizier, Joseph T

    2016-01-01

    Transfer entropy has been used to quantify the directed flow of information between source and target variables in many complex systems. Originally formulated in discrete time, we provide a framework for considering transfer entropy in continuous time systems. By appealing to a measure theoretic formulation we generalise transfer entropy, describing it in terms of Radon-Nikodym derivatives between measures of complete path realisations. The resulting formalism introduces and emphasises the idea that transfer entropy is an expectation of an individually fluctuating quantity along a path, in the same way we consider the expectation of physical quantities such as work and heat. We recognise that transfer entropy is a quantity accumulated over a finite time interval, whilst permitting an associated instantaneous transfer entropy rate. We use this approach to produce an explicit form for the transfer entropy for pure jump processes, and highlight the simplified form in the specific case of point processes (frequen...

  3. Theory of Selection Operators on Hyperspaces and Multivalued Stochastic Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高勇; 张文修

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, a new concept of selection operators on hyperspaces (subsets spaces) is introduced, and the existence theorems for several kinds of selection operators are proved. Using the methods of selection operators, we give a selection characterization of identically distributed multivalued random variables and completely solve the vector-valued selection problem for sequences of multivalued random variables converging in distribution. The regular selections and Markov selections for multivalued stochastic processes are studied, and a discretization theorem for multivalued Markov processes is established. A theorem on the asymptotic martingale selections for compact and convex multivalued asymptotic martingale is proved.

  4. Multiple-scale stochastic processes: Decimation, averaging and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bo, Stefano; Celani, Antonio

    2017-02-01

    The recent experimental progresses in handling microscopic systems have allowed to probe them at levels where fluctuations are prominent, calling for stochastic modeling in a large number of physical, chemical and biological phenomena. This has provided fruitful applications for established stochastic methods and motivated further developments. These systems often involve processes taking place on widely separated time scales. For an efficient modeling one usually focuses on the slower degrees of freedom and it is of great importance to accurately eliminate the fast variables in a controlled fashion, carefully accounting for their net effect on the slower dynamics. This procedure in general requires to perform two different operations: decimation and coarse-graining. We introduce the asymptotic methods that form the basis of this procedure and discuss their application to a series of physical, biological and chemical examples. We then turn our attention to functionals of the stochastic trajectories such as residence times, counting statistics, fluxes, entropy production, etc. which have been increasingly studied in recent years. For such functionals, the elimination of the fast degrees of freedom can present additional difficulties and naive procedures can lead to blatantly inconsistent results. Homogenization techniques for functionals are less covered in the literature and we will pedagogically present them here, as natural extensions of the ones employed for the trajectories. We will also discuss recent applications of these techniques to the thermodynamics of small systems and their interpretation in terms of information-theoretic concepts.

  5. From quantum mechanics to finance: Microfoundations for jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in diffusion price processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Christof

    2017-03-01

    We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior and provide microfoundations. After we link the endogenous agent behavior to price dynamics we establish the circumstances under which the dynamics converge to an Itô-diffusion price processes in the large market limit.

  6. Markov chain Monte Carlo inference for Markov jump processes via the linear noise approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stathopoulos, Vassilios; Girolami, Mark A

    2013-02-13

    Bayesian analysis for Markov jump processes (MJPs) is a non-trivial and challenging problem. Although exact inference is theoretically possible, it is computationally demanding, thus its applicability is limited to a small class of problems. In this paper, we describe the application of Riemann manifold Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods using an approximation to the likelihood of the MJP that is valid when the system modelled is near its thermodynamic limit. The proposed approach is both statistically and computationally efficient whereas the convergence rate and mixing of the chains allow for fast MCMC inference. The methodology is evaluated using numerical simulations on two problems from chemical kinetics and one from systems biology.

  7. Simulation of Stochastic Processes by Coupled ODE-PDE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    2008-01-01

    A document discusses the emergence of randomness in solutions of coupled, fully deterministic ODE-PDE (ordinary differential equations-partial differential equations) due to failure of the Lipschitz condition as a new phenomenon. It is possible to exploit the special properties of ordinary differential equations (represented by an arbitrarily chosen, dynamical system) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equations (used to describe the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of joint probability distribution) in order to simulate stochastic processes with the proscribed probability distributions. The important advantage of the proposed approach is that the simulation does not require a random-number generator.

  8. Physics of Stochastic Processes How Randomness Acts in Time

    CERN Document Server

    Mahnke, Reinhard; Lubashevsky, Ihor

    2008-01-01

    Based on lectures given by one of the authors with many years of experience in teaching stochastic processes, this textbook is unique in combining basic mathematical and physical theory with numerous simple and sophisticated examples as well as detailed calculations. In addition, applications from different fields are included so as to strengthen the background learned in the first part of the book. With its exercises at the end of each chapter (and solutions only available to lecturers) this book will benefit students and researchers at different educational levels. Solutions manual available

  9. Posterior Probability and Fluctuation Theorem in Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohkubo, Jun

    2009-12-01

    A generalization of fluctuation theorems in stochastic processes is proposed. The new theorem is written in terms of posterior probabilities, which are introduced via Bayes’ theorem. In conventional fluctuation theorems, a forward path and its time reversal play an important role, so that a microscopically reversible condition is essential. In contrast, the microscopically reversible condition is not necessary in the new theorem. It is shown that the new theorem recovers various theorems and relations previously known, such as the Gallavotti-Cohen-type fluctuation theorem, the Jarzynski equality, and the Hatano-Sasa relation, when suitable assumptions are employed.

  10. A Fractional Order Recovery SIR Model from a Stochastic Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angstmann, C N; Henry, B I; McGann, A V

    2016-03-01

    Over the past several decades, there has been a proliferation of epidemiological models with ordinary derivatives replaced by fractional derivatives in an ad hoc manner. These models may be mathematically interesting, but their relevance is uncertain. Here we develop an SIR model for an epidemic, including vital dynamics, from an underlying stochastic process. We show how fractional differential operators arise naturally in these models whenever the recovery time from the disease is power-law distributed. This can provide a model for a chronic disease process where individuals who are infected for a long time are unlikely to recover. The fractional order recovery model is shown to be consistent with the Kermack-McKendrick age-structured SIR model, and it reduces to the Hethcote-Tudor integral equation SIR model. The derivation from a stochastic process is extended to discrete time, providing a stable numerical method for solving the model equations. We have carried out simulations of the fractional order recovery model showing convergence to equilibrium states. The number of infecteds in the endemic equilibrium state increases as the fractional order of the derivative tends to zero.

  11. An extension of clarke's model with stochastic amplitude flip processes

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon

    2014-07-01

    Stochastic modeling is an essential tool for studying statistical properties of wireless channels. In multipath fading channel (MFC) models, the signal reception is modeled by a sum of wave path contributions, and Clarke\\'s model is an important example of such which has been widely accepted in many wireless applications. However, since Clarke\\'s model is temporally deterministic, Feng and Field noted that it does not model real wireless channels with time-varying randomness well. Here, we extend Clarke\\'s model to a novel time-varying stochastic MFC model with scatterers randomly flipping on and off. Statistical properties of the MFC model are analyzed and shown to fit well with real signal measurements, and a limit Gaussian process is derived from the model when the number of active wave paths tends to infinity. A second focus of this work is a comparison study of the error and computational cost of generating signal realizations from the MFC model and from its limit Gaussian process. By rigorous analysis and numerical studies, we show that in many settings, signal realizations are generated more efficiently by Gaussian process algorithms than by the MFC model\\'s algorithm. Numerical examples that strengthen these observations are also presented. © 2014 IEEE.

  12. The pattern for waiting time in the context of multiple stochastic process

    CERN Document Server

    Jamali, Tayeb; Farahani, S Vasheghani

    2015-01-01

    The aim here is to provide a deeper understanding on the concept of waiting time in application to multiple stochastic processes. This obliges us to work with the vector stochastic process which enables considering at least two stochastic process at simultaneous time instances. In the present study the plan is to master vector stochastic processes by developing the level crossing method. The reason that the previous level-crossing methods lack generality is based on their individual element studies, where the coupling between the components of the vector stochastic process had been simply neglected. In the present work by introducing the generalized level crossing method, consideration of coupling between the components has become possible. This enables analyzing and hence extracting information out of coupled processes usually faced when working in tensor environments. The results obtained by this technique state that in addition to the point distribution of the vector stochastic process, the coupling plays ...

  13. Safety Verification of Piecewise-Deterministic Markov Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wisniewski, Rafael; Sloth, Christoffer; Bujorianu, Manuela

    2016-01-01

    We consider the safety problem of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMP). These are systems that have deterministic dynamics and stochastic jumps, where both the time and the destination of the jumps are stochastic. Specifically, we solve a p-safety problem, where we identify the set...

  14. Stochastic stability of mechanical systems under renewal jump process parametric excitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Larsen, Jesper Winther

    2005-01-01

    if the state space is augmented by the products of the original state variables and the excitation variable. Asymptotic mean and mean-square stability as well as asymptotic sample (Lyapunov) stability with probability 1 are investigated. The Lyapunov exponents have been evaluated both by the direct simulation...

  15. Repeater-Assisted Zeno Effect in Classical Stochastic Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GU Shi-Jian; WANG Li-Gang; WANG Zhi-Guo; LIN Hai-Qing

    2012-01-01

    We address the possibility of the classical Zeno effect in classical stochastic processes as sampled by transferring a digitized image through a classical channel with surrounding noise. It is shown that the the classical state of the image decays inevitably with the distance of the channel due to the interference of the surroundings. However, if there are enough repeaters, which can both check and recover the state's information, the classical state's decay rate will be significantly suppressed, then a classical Zeno effect might occur.%We address the possibility of the classical Zeno effect in classical stochastic processes as sampled by transferring a digitized image through a classical channel with surrounding noise.It is shown that the the classical state of the image decays inevitably with the distance of the channel due to the interference of the surroundings.However,if there are enough repeaters,which can both check and recover the state's information,the classical state's decay rate will be significantly suppressed,then a classical Zeno effect might occur.

  16. Complementary relations in non-equilibrium stochastic processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Eun-jin, E-mail: e.kim@sheffield.ac.uk; Nicholson, S.B.

    2015-08-28

    Highlights: • Novel complementary relations in non-equilibrium stochastic processes. • Dependence of statistical measures (entropy, information, and work) on variables, reference frames, and time. • Equilibrium maximises simultaneous information while minimising simultaneous disorder/uncertainty. • Difference between Eulerian and Lagrangian entropy and its related concepts. • Hamilton–Jacobi relation for forced-dissipative system. - Abstract: We present novel complementary relations in non-equilibrium stochastic processes. Specifically, by utilising path integral formulation, we derive statistical measures (entropy, information, and work) and investigate their dependence on variables (x, v), reference frames, and time. In particular, we show that the equilibrium state maximises the simultaneous information quantified by the product of the Fisher information based on x and v while minimising the simultaneous disorder/uncertainty quantified by the sum of the entropy based on x and v as well as by the product of the variances of the PDFs of x and v. We also elucidate the difference between Eulerian and Lagrangian entropy. Our theory naturally leads to Hamilton–Jacobi relation for forced-dissipative systems.

  17. Stochastic investigation of wind process for climatic variability identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligiannis, Ilias; Tyrogiannis, Vassilis; Daskalou, Olympia; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yannis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2016-04-01

    The wind process is considered one of the hydrometeorological processes that generates and drives the climate dynamics. We use a dataset comprising hourly wind records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  18. Stochastic investigation of temperature process for climatic variability identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerias, Eleutherios; Kalamioti, Anna; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yannis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2016-04-01

    The temperature process is considered as the most characteristic hydrometeorological process and has been thoroughly examined in the climate-change framework. We use a dataset comprising hourly temperature and dew point records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  19. Nonparametric estimation of stochastic differential equations with sparse Gaussian processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Constantino A.; Otero, Abraham; Félix, Paulo; Presedo, Jesús; Márquez, David G.

    2017-08-01

    The application of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we introduce a nonparametric method for estimating the drift and diffusion terms of SDEs from a densely observed discrete time series. The use of Gaussian processes as priors permits working directly in a function-space view and thus the inference takes place directly in this space. To cope with the computational complexity that requires the use of Gaussian processes, a sparse Gaussian process approximation is provided. This approximation permits the efficient computation of predictions for the drift and diffusion terms by using a distribution over a small subset of pseudosamples. The proposed method has been validated using both simulated data and real data from economy and paleoclimatology. The application of the method to real data demonstrates its ability to capture the behavior of complex systems.

  20. Jump-type Hunt processes generated by lower bounded semi-Dirichlet forms

    CERN Document Server

    Fukushima, Masatoshi; 10.1214/10-AOP633

    2012-01-01

    Let $E$ be a locally compact separable metric space and $m$ be a positive Radon measure on it. Given a nonnegative function $k$ defined on $E\\times E$ off the diagonal whose anti-symmetric part is assumed to be less singular than the symmetric part, we construct an associated regular lower bounded semi-Dirichlet form $\\eta$ on $L^2(E;m)$ producing a Hunt process $X^0$ on $E$ whose jump behaviours are governed by $k$. For an arbitrary open subset $D\\subset E$, we also construct a Hunt process $X^{D,0}$ on $D$ in an analogous manner. When $D$ is relatively compact, we show that $X^{D,0}$ is censored in the sense that it admits no killing inside $D$ and killed only when the path approaches to the boundary. When $E$ is a $d$-dimensional Euclidean space and $m$ is the Lebesgue measure, a typical example of $X^0$ is the stable-like process that will be also identified with the solution of a martingale problem up to an $\\eta$-polar set of starting points. Approachability to the boundary $\\partial D$ in finite time o...

  1. Stochastic investigation of precipitation process for climatic variability identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotiriadou, Alexia; Petsiou, Amalia; Feloni, Elisavet; Kastis, Paris; Iliopoulou, Theano; Markonis, Yannis; Tyralis, Hristos; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2016-04-01

    The precipitation process is important not only to hydrometeorology but also to renewable energy resources management. We use a dataset consisting of daily and hourly records around the globe to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale). Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  2. Persistent search in single and multiple confined domains: a velocity-jump process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poll, Daniel B.; Kilpatrick, Zachary P.

    2016-05-01

    We analyze velocity-jump process models of persistent search for a single target on a bounded domain. The searcher proceeds along ballistic trajectories and is absorbed upon collision with the target boundary. When reaching the domain boundary, the searcher chooses a random direction for its new trajectory. For circular domains and targets, we can approximate the mean first passage time (MFPT) using a Markov chain approximation of the search process. Our analysis and numerical simulations reveal that the time to find the target decreases for targets closer to the domain boundary. When there is a small probability of direction-switching within the domain, we find the time to find the target decreases slightly with the turning probability. We also extend our exit time analysis to the case of partitioned domains, where there is a single target within one of multiple disjoint subdomains. Given an average time of transition between domains , we find that the optimal rate of transition that minimizes the time to find the target obeys {β\\text{min}}\\propto 1/\\sqrt .

  3. Suprathreshold stochastic resonance in neural processing tuned by correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durrant, Simon; Kang, Yanmei; Stocks, Nigel; Feng, Jianfeng

    2011-07-01

    Suprathreshold stochastic resonance (SSR) is examined in the context of integrate-and-fire neurons, with an emphasis on the role of correlation in the neuronal firing. We employed a model based on a network of spiking neurons which received synaptic inputs modeled by Poisson processes stimulated by a stepped input signal. The smoothed ensemble firing rate provided an output signal, and the mutual information between this signal and the input was calculated for networks with different noise levels and different numbers of neurons. It was found that an SSR effect was present in this context. We then examined a more biophysically plausible scenario where the noise was not controlled directly, but instead was tuned by the correlation between the inputs. The SSR effect remained present in this scenario with nonzero noise providing improved information transmission, and it was found that negative correlation between the inputs was optimal. Finally, an examination of SSR in the context of this model revealed its connection with more traditional stochastic resonance and showed a trade-off between supratheshold and subthreshold components. We discuss these results in the context of existing empirical evidence concerning correlations in neuronal firing.

  4. Estimation of Jump Tails

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Victor

    We propose a new and flexible non-parametric framework for estimating the jump tails of Itô semimartingale processes. The approach is based on a relatively simple-to-implement set of estimating equations associated with the compensator for the jump measure, or its "intensity", that only utilizes ...

  5. Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations

    CERN Document Server

    Kessler, Mathieu; Sorensen, Michael

    2012-01-01

    The seventh volume in the SemStat series, Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations presents current research trends and recent developments in statistical methods for stochastic differential equations. Written to be accessible to both new students and seasoned researchers, each self-contained chapter starts with introductions to the topic at hand and builds gradually towards discussing recent research. The book covers Wiener-driven equations as well as stochastic differential equations with jumps, including continuous-time ARMA processes and COGARCH processes. It presents a sp

  6. Interacting Stochastic Processes: From Viciousness to Caging to Force Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shiliyang

    This thesis documents a quest to develop and study several novel interacting stochastic processes. As for the first example, we generalize a system of vicious random walkers in which the only interaction between any two random walkers is that when they intersect, both walkers are annihilated. We define a system of N vicious accelerating walkers with each walker undergoing random acceleration and compute the survival probability distribution for this system. We also define and study a system of N vicious Levy flights in which any two Levy flights crossing one another annihilate each other. The average mean-squared displacement of a Levy flight is not proportional to time, but scales with what is known as the Levy index divided by two. In both cases, vicious accelerating walkers and vicious Levy flights, we are motivated by ultimately generalizing our understanding of Gaussian random matrices via non-Markovian and non-Gaussian extensions respectively. Moreover, inspired by recent experiments on periodically sheared colloids at low densities, we define and investigate several new contact processes, or interacting stochastic processes, with conserved particle number and three-or-more-body interactions. We do so to characterize the periodically sheared colloidal system at higher densities. We find two new dynamical phase transitions between an active phase, where some fraction of the colloids are always being displaced from their position at the beginning and end of each shear cycle, and an inactive phase in which all colloids return to their initial positions at the end of each shear cycle. One of the transitions is discontinuous, while the second, which is due to a caging, or crowding, effect at high densities, appears to be continuous and in a new universality from what is known as conserved directed percolation. The latter transition may have implications for the onset of glassiness in dense, particulate systems. In addition, this thesis also includes analysis of

  7. Stochastic control of Itô-Lévy processes with applications to finance

    OpenAIRE

    Øksendal, Bernt; Sulem, Agnès

    2014-01-01

    We give a short introduction to the stochastic calculus for Itô-Lévy processes and review briefly the two main methods of optimal control of systems described by such processes: (i) Dynamic programming and the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation (ii) The stochastic maximum principle and its associated backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE). The two methods are illustrated by application to the classical portfolio optimization problem in finance. A second application is t...

  8. Stochastic calculus for fractional Brownian motion and related processes

    CERN Document Server

    Mishura, Yuliya S

    2008-01-01

    The theory of fractional Brownian motion and other long-memory processes are addressed in this volume. Interesting topics for PhD students and specialists in probability theory, stochastic analysis and financial mathematics demonstrate the modern level of this field. Among these are results about Levy characterization of fractional Brownian motion, maximal moment inequalities for Wiener integrals including the values 0

  9. Stochastic Processes in Yellow and Red Pulsating Variables

    CERN Document Server

    Turner, David G; Colivas, T; Berdnikov, Leonid N; Abdel-Latif, Mohamed Abdel-Sabour

    2009-01-01

    Random changes in pulsation period are well established in cool pulsating stars, in particular the red giant variables: Miras, semi-regulars of types A and B, and RV Tau variables. Such effects are also observed in a handful of Cepheids, the SX Phe variable XX Cyg, and, most recently, the red supergiant variable, BC Cyg, a type C semi-regular. The nature of such fluctuations is seemingly random over a few pulsation cycles of the stars, yet the regularity of the primary pulsation mechanism dominates over the long term. The degree of stochasticity is linked to the dimensions of the stars, the randomness parameter 'e' appearing to correlate closely with mean stellar radius through the period 'P', with an average value of e/P = 0.0136+-0.0005. The physical processes responsible for such fluctuations are uncertain, but presumably originate in temporal modifications of envelope convection in such stars.

  10. A measure theoretical approach to quantum stochastic processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waldenfels, Wilhelm von

    2014-04-01

    Authored by a leading researcher in the field. Self-contained presentation of the subject matter. Examines a number of worked examples in detail. This monograph takes as starting point that abstract quantum stochastic processes can be understood as a quantum field theory in one space and in one time coordinate. As a result it is appropriate to represent operators as power series of creation and annihilation operators in normal-ordered form, which can be achieved using classical measure theory. Considering in detail four basic examples (e.g. a two-level atom coupled to a heat bath of oscillators), in each case the Hamiltonian of the associated one-parameter strongly continuous group is determined and the spectral decomposition is explicitly calculated in the form of generalized eigen-vectors. Advanced topics include the theory of the Hudson-Parthasarathy equation and the amplified oscillator problem. To that end, a chapter on white noise calculus has also been included.

  11. An introduction to stochastic processes and nonequilibrium statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Wio, Horacio S; Lopez, Juan M

    2012-01-01

    This book aims to provide a compact and unified introduction to the most important aspects in the physics of non-equilibrium systems. It first introduces stochastic processes and some modern tools and concepts that have proved their usefulness to deal with non-equilibrium systems from a purely probabilistic angle. The aim is to show the important role played by fluctuations in far-from-equilibrium situations, where noise can promote order and organization, switching among non-equilibrium states, etc. The second part adopts a more historical perspective, retracing the first steps taken from the purely thermodynamic as well as from the kinetic points of view to depart (albeit slightly) from equilibrium. The third part revisits the path outlined in the first one, but now undertakes the mesoscopic description of extended systems, where new phenomena (patterns, long-range correlations, scaling far from equilibrium, etc.) are observed.

  12. QUANTUM STOCHASTIC PROCESSES: BOSON AND FERMION BROWNIAN MOTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.E.Kobryn

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of quantum systems which are stochastically perturbed by linear coupling to the reservoir can be studied in terms of quantum stochastic differential equations (for example, quantum stochastic Liouville equation and quantum Langevin equation. In order to work it out one needs to define the quantum Brownian motion. As far as only its boson version has been known until recently, in the present paper we present the definition which makes it possible to consider the fermion Brownian motion as well.

  13. Residual mean first-passage time for jump processes: theory and applications to Levy flights and fractional Brownian motion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejedor, V; Benichou, O; Voituriez, R [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique de la Matiere Condensee (UMR 7600), Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 Place Jussieu, 75255 Paris Cedex (France); Metzler, Ralf, E-mail: voiturie@lptmc.jussieu.fr [Physics Department, Technical University of Munich, James Franck Strasse, 85747 Garching (Germany)

    2011-06-24

    We derive a functional equation for the mean first-passage time (MFPT) of a generic self-similar Markovian continuous process to a target in a one-dimensional domain and obtain its exact solution. We show that the obtained expression of the MFPT for continuous processes is actually different from the large system size limit of the MFPT for discrete jump processes allowing leapovers. In the case considered here, the asymptotic MFPT admits non-vanishing corrections, which we call residual MFPT. The case of Levy flights with diverging variance of jump lengths is investigated in detail, in particular, with respect to the associated leapover behavior. We also show numerically that our results apply with good accuracy to fractional Brownian motion, despite its non-Markovian nature.

  14. Stochastic simulation of spatially correlated geo-processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakos, G.

    1987-01-01

    In this study, developments in the theory of stochastic simulation are discussed. The unifying element is the notion of Radon projection in Euclidean spaces. This notion provides a natural way of reconstructing the real process from a corresponding process observable on a reduced dimensionality space, where analysis is theoretically easier and computationally tractable. Within this framework, the concept of space transformation is defined and several of its properties, which are of significant importance within the context of spatially correlated processes, are explored. The turning bands operator is shown to follow from this. This strengthens considerably the theoretical background of the geostatistical method of simulation, and some new results are obtained in both the space and frequency domains. The inverse problem is solved generally and the applicability of the method is extended to anisotropic as well as integrated processes. Some ill-posed problems of the inverse operator are discussed. Effects of the measurement error and impulses at origin are examined. Important features of the simulated process as described by geomechanical laws, the morphology of the deposit, etc., may be incorporated in the analysis. The simulation may become a model-dependent procedure and this, in turn, may provide numerical solutions to spatial-temporal geologic models. Because the spatial simu??lation may be technically reduced to unidimensional simulations, various techniques of generating one-dimensional realizations are reviewed. To link theory and practice, an example is computed in detail. ?? 1987 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  15. Stochastic particle based models for suspended particle movement in surface flows

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Christina W.TSAI; Chuanjian MAN; Jungsun OH

    2014-01-01

    Modeling of suspended sediment particle movement in surface water can be achieved by stochastic particle tracking model approaches. In this paper, different mathematical forms of particle tracking models are introduced to describe particle movement under various flow conditions, i.e., the stochastic diffusion process, stochastic jump process, and stochastic jump diffusion process. While the stochastic diffusion process can be used to represent the stochastic movement of suspended particles in turbulent flows, the stochastic jump and the stochastic jump diffusion processes can be used to describe suspended particle movement in the occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows. An extreme flow herein is defined as a hydrologic flow event or a hydrodynamic flow phenomenon with a low probability of occurrence and a high impact on its ambient flow environment. In this paper, the suspended sediment particle is assumed to immediately follow the extreme flows in the jump process (i.e. the time lag between the flow particle and the sediment particle in extreme flows is considered negligible). In the proposed particle tracking models, a random term mainly caused by fluid eddy motions is modeled as a Wiener process, while the random occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows can be modeled as a Poisson process. The frequency of occurrence of the extreme flows in the proposed particle tracking model can be explicitly accounted for by the Poisson process when evaluating particle movement. The ensemble mean and variance of particle trajectory can be obtained from the proposed stochastic models via simulations. The ensemble mean and variance of particle velocity are verified with available data. Applicability of the proposed stochastic particle tracking models for sediment transport modeling is also discussed.

  16. Stochastic P systems and the simulation of biochemical processes with dynamic compartments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spicher, Antoine; Michel, Olivier; Cieslak, Mikolaj; Giavitto, Jean-Louis; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw

    2008-03-01

    We introduce a sequential rewriting strategy for P systems based on Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm, and show that the resulting formalism of stochastic P systems makes it possible to simulate biochemical processes in dynamically changing, nested compartments. Stochastic P systems have been implemented using the spatially explicit programming language MGS. Implementation examples include models of the Lotka-Volterra auto-catalytic system, and the life cycle of the Semliki Forest virus.

  17. STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND STOCHASTIC LINEAR QUADRATIC OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEM WITH L(E)VY PROCESSES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huaibin TANG; Zhen WU

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the authors first study two kinds of stochastic differential equations (SDEs)cesses, the authors proceed to study a stochastic linear quadratic (LQ) optimal control problem with One kind of new stochastic Riccati equation that involves equality and inequality constraints is derived from the idea of square completion and its solvability is proved to be sufficient for the well-posedness and the existence of optimal control which can be of either state feedback or open-loop form of the LQ problems. Moreover, the authors obtain the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the Riccati equation for some special cases. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate these theoretical results.

  18. Reliability Analysis Based on a Jump Diffusion Model with Two Wiener Processes for Cloud Computing with Big Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshinobu Tamura

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available At present, many cloud services are managed by using open source software, such as OpenStack and Eucalyptus, because of the unification management of data, cost reduction, quick delivery and work savings. The operation phase of cloud computing has a unique feature, such as the provisioning processes, the network-based operation and the diversity of data, because the operation phase of cloud computing changes depending on many external factors. We propose a jump diffusion model with two-dimensional Wiener processes in order to consider the interesting aspects of the network traffic and big data on cloud computing. In particular, we assess the stability of cloud software by using the sample paths obtained from the jump diffusion model with two-dimensional Wiener processes. Moreover, we discuss the optimal maintenance problem based on the proposed jump diffusion model. Furthermore, we analyze actual data to show numerical examples of dependability optimization based on the software maintenance cost considering big data on cloud computing.

  19. Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes with identical spectral density but different probability density functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Youming; Zheng, Fan

    2016-12-01

    Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes, with identical spectral density but different probability density functions (PDFs), is investigated in selected lightly damped Hamiltonian systems. The threshold amplitude of diffusion processes for the onset of chaos is derived by using the stochastic Melnikov method together with a mean-square criterion. Two quasi-Hamiltonian systems, namely, a damped single pendulum and damped Duffing oscillator perturbed by stochastic excitations, are used as illustrative examples. Four different cases of stochastic processes are taking as the driving excitations. It is shown that in such two systems the spectral density of diffusion processes completely determines the threshold amplitude for chaos, regardless of the shape of their PDFs, Gaussian or otherwise. Furthermore, the mean top Lyapunov exponent is employed to verify analytical results. The results obtained by numerical simulations are in accordance with the analytical results. This demonstrates that the stochastic Melnikov method is effective in predicting the onset of chaos in the quasi-Hamiltonian systems.

  20. Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes with identical spectral density but different probability density functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Youming; Zheng, Fan

    2016-12-01

    Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes, with identical spectral density but different probability density functions (PDFs), is investigated in selected lightly damped Hamiltonian systems. The threshold amplitude of diffusion processes for the onset of chaos is derived by using the stochastic Melnikov method together with a mean-square criterion. Two quasi-Hamiltonian systems, namely, a damped single pendulum and damped Duffing oscillator perturbed by stochastic excitations, are used as illustrative examples. Four different cases of stochastic processes are taking as the driving excitations. It is shown that in such two systems the spectral density of diffusion processes completely determines the threshold amplitude for chaos, regardless of the shape of their PDFs, Gaussian or otherwise. Furthermore, the mean top Lyapunov exponent is employed to verify analytical results. The results obtained by numerical simulations are in accordance with the analytical results. This demonstrates that the stochastic Melnikov method is effective in predicting the onset of chaos in the quasi-Hamiltonian systems.

  1. A Stochastic Process Approach of the Drake Equation Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Glade, Nicolas; Bastien, Olivier

    2011-01-01

    The number N of detectable (i.e. communicating) extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy is usually done by using the Drake equation. This equation was established in 1961 by Frank Drake and was the first step to quantifying the SETI field. Practically, this equation is rather a simple algebraic expression and its simplistic nature leaves it open to frequent re-expression An additional problem of the Drake equation is the time-independence of its terms, which for example excludes the effects of the physico-chemical history of the galaxy. Recently, it has been demonstrated that the main shortcoming of the Drake equation is its lack of temporal structure, i.e., it fails to take into account various evolutionary processes. In particular, the Drake equation doesn't provides any error estimation about the measured quantity. Here, we propose a first treatment of these evolutionary aspects by constructing a simple stochastic process which will be able to provide both a temporal structure to the Drake e...

  2. Biologically variable respiration as a stochastic process in ventilation - a stochastic model study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Kyongyob; Hosoi, Keita; Degami, Masayuki; Kinoshita, Yoshinori

    2010-01-01

    Based on the fractal bronchial tree, we introduced a function of "asynchronous phasic contractions of lobular bronchiole", which would generate fluctuations in tidal volumes. Stochastic control theory was able to describe a genesis of biological variability in spontaneous respirations using a Schroedinger wave function.

  3. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia); Salleh, Madihah Md [Department of Biotechnology Industry, Faculty of Biosciences and Bioengineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  4. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  5. Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

    This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...

  6. A Novel Formal Analysis Method of Network Survivability Based on Stochastic Process Algebra

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Guosheng; WANG Huiqiang; WANG Jian

    2007-01-01

    Stochastic process algebras have been proposed as compositional specification formalisms for performance models. A formal analysis method of survivable network was proposed based on stochastic process algebra, which incorporates formal modeling into performance analysis perfectly, and then various performance parameters of survivable network can be simultaneously obtained after formal modeling. The formal description with process expression to the survivable network system was carried out based on the simply introduced syntax and operational semantics of stochastic process algebra. Then PEPA workbench tool was used to obtain the probability of system's steady state availability and transient state availability. Simulation experiments show the effectiveness and feasibility of the developed method.

  7. Stochastic simulations of cargo transport by processive molecular motors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Christian B; Klumpp, Stefan; Lipowsky, Reinhard; Schwarz, Ulrich S

    2009-12-28

    We use stochastic computer simulations to study the transport of a spherical cargo particle along a microtubule-like track on a planar substrate by several kinesin-like processive motors. Our newly developed adhesive motor dynamics algorithm combines the numerical integration of a Langevin equation for the motion of a sphere with kinetic rules for the molecular motors. The Langevin part includes diffusive motion, the action of the pulling motors, and hydrodynamic interactions between sphere and wall. The kinetic rules for the motors include binding to and unbinding from the filament as well as active motor steps. We find that the simulated mean transport length increases exponentially with the number of bound motors, in good agreement with earlier results. The number of motors in binding range to the motor track fluctuates in time with a Poissonian distribution, both for springs and cables being used as models for the linker mechanics. Cooperativity in the sense of equal load sharing only occurs for high values for viscosity and attachment time.

  8. Stochastic differential equation model for linear growth birth and death processes with immigration and emigration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granita, Bahar, A.

    2015-03-01

    This paper discusses on linear birth and death with immigration and emigration (BIDE) process to stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. Forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with a central-difference approximation was used to find Fokker-Planckequation corresponding to a diffusion process having the stochastic differential equation of BIDE process. The exact solution, mean and variance function of BIDE process was found.

  9. Stochastic differential equation model for linear growth birth and death processes with immigration and emigration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. Mathematical Education, State Islamic University of Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, 28293 Indonesia and Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310,Johor (Malaysia); Bahar, A. [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310,Johor Malaysia and UTM Center for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)

    2015-03-09

    This paper discusses on linear birth and death with immigration and emigration (BIDE) process to stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. Forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with a central-difference approximation was used to find Fokker-Planckequation corresponding to a diffusion process having the stochastic differential equation of BIDE process. The exact solution, mean and variance function of BIDE process was found.

  10. Analysis of stochastic characteristics of the Benue River flow process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Martins Y.OTACHE; Mohammad BAKIR; LI Zhijia

    2008-01-01

    Stochastic characteristics of the Benue River streamflow process are examined under conditions of data austerity.The streamflow process is investigated for trend,non-stationarity and seasonality for a time period of 26 years.Results of trend analyses with Mann-Kendall test show that there is no trend in the annual mean discharges.Monthly flow series examined with seasonal Kendall test indicate the presence of positive change in the trend for some months,especially the months of August,January,and February.For the stationarity test,daily and monthly flow series appear to be stationary whereas at 1%,5%,and 10% significant levels,the stationarity alternative hypothesis is rejected for the annual flow series.Though monthly flow appears to be stationary going by this test,because of high seasonality,it could be said to exhibit periodic stationarity based on the seasonality analysis.The following conclusions are drawn:(1) There is seasonality in both the mean and variance with unimodal distribution.(2) Days with high mean also have high variance.(3) Skewness coefficients for the months within the dry season period are greater than those of the wet season period,and seasonal autocorrelations for streamflow during dry season are generally larger than those of the wet season.Precisely,they are significantly different for most of the months.(4) The autocorrelation functions estimated "over time" are greater in the absolute value for data that have not been deseasonalised but were initially normalised by logarithmic transformation only,while autocorrelation functions for i=1,2,…,365 estimated "over realisations" have their coefficients significantly different from other coefficients.

  11. Jumping Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sannino, Francesco

    2013-01-01

    We propose an alternative paradigm to the conjectured Miransky scaling potentially underlying the physics describing the transition from the conformally broken to the conformally restored phase when tuning certain parameters such as the number of flavors in gauge theories. According to the new...... paradigm the physical scale and henceforth also the massive spectrum of the theory jump at the lower boundary of the conformal window. In particular we propose that a theory can suddenly jump from a Quantum Chromodynamics type spectrum, at the lower boundary of the conformal window, to a conformal one...... without particle interpretation. The jumping scenario, therefore, does not support a near-conformal dynamics of walking type. We will also discuss the impact of jumping dynamics on the construction of models of dynamical electroweak symmetry breaking....

  12. Stochastic Modeling and Deterministic Limit of Catalytic Surface Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starke, Jens; Reichert, Christian; Eiswirth, Markus;

    2007-01-01

    of stochastic origin can be observed in experiments. The models include a new approach to the platinum phase transition, which allows for a unification of existing models for Pt(100) and Pt(110). The rich nonlinear dynamical behavior of the macroscopic reaction kinetics is investigated and shows good agreement......Three levels of modeling, microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic are discussed for the CO oxidation on low-index platinum single crystal surfaces. The introduced models on the microscopic and mesoscopic level are stochastic while the model on the macroscopic level is deterministic. It can...... with low pressure experiments. Furthermore, for intermediate pressures, noise-induced pattern formation, which has not been captured by earlier models, can be reproduced in stochastic simulations with the mesoscopic model....

  13. Stochastic analysis in discrete and continuous settings with normal martingales

    CERN Document Server

    Privault, Nicolas

    2009-01-01

    This volume gives a unified presentation of stochastic analysis for continuous and discontinuous stochastic processes, in both discrete and continuous time. It is mostly self-contained and accessible to graduate students and researchers having already received a basic training in probability. The simultaneous treatment of continuous and jump processes is done in the framework of normal martingales; that includes the Brownian motion and compensated Poisson processes as specific cases. In particular, the basic tools of stochastic analysis (chaos representation, gradient, divergence, integration by parts) are presented in this general setting. Applications are given to functional and deviation inequalities and mathematical finance.

  14. Stochastic process variation in deep-submicron CMOS circuits and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Zjajo, Amir

    2014-01-01

    One of the most notable features of nanometer scale CMOS technology is the increasing magnitude of variability of the key device parameters affecting performance of integrated circuits. The growth of variability can be attributed to multiple factors, including the difficulty of manufacturing control, the emergence of new systematic variation-generating mechanisms, and most importantly, the increase in atomic-scale randomness, where device operation must be described as a stochastic process. In addition to wide-sense stationary stochastic device variability and temperature variation, existence of non-stationary stochastic electrical noise associated with fundamental processes in integrated-circuit devices represents an elementary limit on the performance of electronic circuits. In an attempt to address these issues, Stochastic Process Variation in Deep-Submicron CMOS: Circuits and Algorithms offers unique combination of mathematical treatment of random process variation, electrical noise and temperature and ne...

  15. Stochastic Volterra Equation Driven by Wiener Process and Fractional Brownian Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available For a mixed stochastic Volterra equation driven by Wiener process and fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H>1/2, we prove an existence and uniqueness result for this equation under suitable assumptions.

  16. Survey of Bayesian Models for Modelling of Stochastic Temporal Processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ng, B

    2006-10-12

    This survey gives an overview of popular generative models used in the modeling of stochastic temporal systems. In particular, this survey is organized into two parts. The first part discusses the discrete-time representations of dynamic Bayesian networks and dynamic relational probabilistic models, while the second part discusses the continuous-time representation of continuous-time Bayesian networks.

  17. Stochastic Process Analysis of Interactive Discourse in Early Counseling Interviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, Myrna L.; Phillips, Susan D.

    1984-01-01

    Examined patterns of interactive discourse to suggest how client and counselor establish a working alliance in their early interviews. Based on classification of 312 conversational turns from 14 dyads, a stochastic analysis was conducted. Results showed the sequences of talk were highly stable and predictable. (JAC)

  18. Applications of quantum stochastic processes in quantum optics

    OpenAIRE

    Bouten, Luc

    2008-01-01

    These lecture notes provide an introduction to quantum filtering and its applications in quantum optics. We start with a brief introduction to quantum probability, focusing on the spectral theorem. Then we introduce the conditional expectation and quantum stochastic calculus. In the last part of the notes we discuss the filtering problem.

  19. A stochastic version of the Price equation reveals the interplay of deterministic and stochastic processes in evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rice Sean H

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Evolution involves both deterministic and random processes, both of which are known to contribute to directional evolutionary change. A number of studies have shown that when fitness is treated as a random variable, meaning that each individual has a distribution of possible fitness values, then both the mean and variance of individual fitness distributions contribute to directional evolution. Unfortunately the most general mathematical description of evolution that we have, the Price equation, is derived under the assumption that both fitness and offspring phenotype are fixed values that are known exactly. The Price equation is thus poorly equipped to study an important class of evolutionary processes. Results I present a general equation for directional evolutionary change that incorporates both deterministic and stochastic processes and applies to any evolving system. This is essentially a stochastic version of the Price equation, but it is derived independently and contains terms with no analog in Price's formulation. This equation shows that the effects of selection are actually amplified by random variation in fitness. It also generalizes the known tendency of populations to be pulled towards phenotypes with minimum variance in fitness, and shows that this is matched by a tendency to be pulled towards phenotypes with maximum positive asymmetry in fitness. This equation also contains a term, having no analog in the Price equation, that captures cases in which the fitness of parents has a direct effect on the phenotype of their offspring. Conclusion Directional evolution is influenced by the entire distribution of individual fitness, not just the mean and variance. Though all moments of individuals' fitness distributions contribute to evolutionary change, the ways that they do so follow some general rules. These rules are invisible to the Price equation because it describes evolution retrospectively. An equally general

  20. A stochastic version of the Price equation reveals the interplay of deterministic and stochastic processes in evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Sean H

    2008-09-25

    Evolution involves both deterministic and random processes, both of which are known to contribute to directional evolutionary change. A number of studies have shown that when fitness is treated as a random variable, meaning that each individual has a distribution of possible fitness values, then both the mean and variance of individual fitness distributions contribute to directional evolution. Unfortunately the most general mathematical description of evolution that we have, the Price equation, is derived under the assumption that both fitness and offspring phenotype are fixed values that are known exactly. The Price equation is thus poorly equipped to study an important class of evolutionary processes. I present a general equation for directional evolutionary change that incorporates both deterministic and stochastic processes and applies to any evolving system. This is essentially a stochastic version of the Price equation, but it is derived independently and contains terms with no analog in Price's formulation. This equation shows that the effects of selection are actually amplified by random variation in fitness. It also generalizes the known tendency of populations to be pulled towards phenotypes with minimum variance in fitness, and shows that this is matched by a tendency to be pulled towards phenotypes with maximum positive asymmetry in fitness. This equation also contains a term, having no analog in the Price equation, that captures cases in which the fitness of parents has a direct effect on the phenotype of their offspring. Directional evolution is influenced by the entire distribution of individual fitness, not just the mean and variance. Though all moments of individuals' fitness distributions contribute to evolutionary change, the ways that they do so follow some general rules. These rules are invisible to the Price equation because it describes evolution retrospectively. An equally general prospective evolution equation compliments the Price equation

  1. A double-ended queue with catastrophes and repairs, and a jump-diffusion approximation

    CERN Document Server

    Di Crescenzo, Antonio; Kumar, Balasubramanian Krishna; Nobile, Amelia G; 10.1007/s11009-011-9214-2

    2011-01-01

    Consider a system performing a continuous-time random walk on the integers, subject to catastrophes occurring at constant rate, and followed by exponentially-distributed repair times. After any repair the system starts anew from state zero. We study both the transient and steady-state probability laws of the stochastic process that describes the state of the system. We then derive a heavy-traffic approximation to the model that yields a jump-diffusion process. The latter is equivalent to a Wiener process subject to randomly occurring jumps, whose probability law is obtained. The goodness of the approximation is finally discussed.

  2. An introduction to continuous-time stochastic processes theory, models, and applications to finance, biology, and medicine

    CERN Document Server

    Capasso, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    This textbook, now in its third edition, offers a rigorous and self-contained introduction to the theory of continuous-time stochastic processes, stochastic integrals, and stochastic differential equations. Expertly balancing theory and applications, the work features concrete examples of modeling real-world problems from biology, medicine, industrial applications, finance, and insurance using stochastic methods. No previous knowledge of stochastic processes is required. Key topics include: * Markov processes * Stochastic differential equations * Arbitrage-free markets and financial derivatives * Insurance risk * Population dynamics, and epidemics * Agent-based models New to the Third Edition: * Infinitely divisible distributions * Random measures * Levy processes * Fractional Brownian motion * Ergodic theory * Karhunen-Loeve expansion * Additional applications * Additional  exercises * Smoluchowski  approximation of  Langevin systems An Introduction to Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes, Third Editio...

  3. Stochastic partial differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Chow, Pao-Liu

    2014-01-01

    Preliminaries Introduction Some Examples Brownian Motions and Martingales Stochastic Integrals Stochastic Differential Equations of Itô Type Lévy Processes and Stochastic IntegralsStochastic Differential Equations of Lévy Type Comments Scalar Equations of First Order Introduction Generalized Itô's Formula Linear Stochastic Equations Quasilinear Equations General Remarks Stochastic Parabolic Equations Introduction Preliminaries Solution of Stochastic Heat EquationLinear Equations with Additive Noise Some Regularity Properties Stochastic Reaction-Diffusion Equations Parabolic Equations with Grad

  4. Stochasticity and Determinism: How Density-Independent and Density-Dependent Processes Affect Population Variability

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Ohlberger; Rogers, Lauren A.; Nils Chr. Stenseth

    2014-01-01

    A persistent debate in population ecology concerns the relative importance of environmental stochasticity and density dependence in determining variability in adult year-class strength, which contributes to future reproduction as well as potential yield in exploited populations. Apart from the strength of the processes, the timing of density regulation may affect how stochastic variation, for instance through climate, translates into changes in adult abundance. In this study, we develop a lif...

  5. An empirical analysis of the distribution of overshoots in a stationary Gaussian stochastic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, M. C.; Madison, M. W.

    1973-01-01

    The frequency distribution of overshoots in a stationary Gaussian stochastic process is analyzed. The primary processes involved in this analysis are computer simulation and statistical estimation. Computer simulation is used to simulate stationary Gaussian stochastic processes that have selected autocorrelation functions. An analysis of the simulation results reveals a frequency distribution for overshoots with a functional dependence on the mean and variance of the process. Statistical estimation is then used to estimate the mean and variance of a process. It is shown that for an autocorrelation function, the mean and the variance for the number of overshoots, a frequency distribution for overshoots can be estimated.

  6. Evaluation of Uncertainty in Runoff Analysis Incorporating Theory of Stochastic Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimi, Kazuhiro; Wang, Chao-Wen; Yamada, Tadashi

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework of uncertainty estimate on rainfall-runoff analysis based on theory of stochastic process. SDE (stochastic differential equation) based on this theory has been widely used in the field of mathematical finance due to predict stock price movement. Meanwhile, some researchers in the field of civil engineering have investigated by using this knowledge about SDE (stochastic differential equation) (e.g. Kurino et.al, 1999; Higashino and Kanda, 2001). However, there have been no studies about evaluation of uncertainty in runoff phenomenon based on comparisons between SDE (stochastic differential equation) and Fokker-Planck equation. The Fokker-Planck equation is a partial differential equation that describes the temporal variation of PDF (probability density function), and there is evidence to suggest that SDEs and Fokker-Planck equations are equivalent mathematically. In this paper, therefore, the uncertainty of discharge on the uncertainty of rainfall is explained theoretically and mathematically by introduction of theory of stochastic process. The lumped rainfall-runoff model is represented by SDE (stochastic differential equation) due to describe it as difference formula, because the temporal variation of rainfall is expressed by its average plus deviation, which is approximated by Gaussian distribution. This is attributed to the observed rainfall by rain-gauge station and radar rain-gauge system. As a result, this paper has shown that it is possible to evaluate the uncertainty of discharge by using the relationship between SDE (stochastic differential equation) and Fokker-Planck equation. Moreover, the results of this study show that the uncertainty of discharge increases as rainfall intensity rises and non-linearity about resistance grows strong. These results are clarified by PDFs (probability density function) that satisfy Fokker-Planck equation about discharge. It means the reasonable discharge can be

  7. Robust guaranteed cost filtering for uncertain time-delay systems with Markovian jumping parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fu Yanming; Zhang Ying; Duan Guangren; Chai Qingxuan

    2005-01-01

    The robust guaranteed cost filtering problem for a class of linear uncertain stochastic systems with time delays is investigated. The system under study involves time delays, jumping parameters and Brownian motions. The transition of the jumping parameters in systems is governed by a finite-state Markov process. The objective is to design linear memoryless filters such that for all uncertainties, the resulting augmented system is robust stochastically stable independent of delays and satisfies the proposed guaranteed cost performance. Based on stability theory in stochastic differential equations, a sufficient condition on the existence of robust guaranteed cost filters is derived. Robust guaranteed cost filters are designed in terms of linear matrix inequalities. A convex optimization problem with LMI constraints is formulated to design the suboptimal guaranteed cost filters.

  8. Long Jump

    CERN Document Server

    Dorobantu, V

    2012-01-01

    When the laws of Physics are taken seriously, the sports can benefit in getting better results, as was the case of the high jump in Flop style, so that the athlete sprints diagonally towards the bar,then curve and leap backwards over it. The jumper, in this case, has the center of mass under the bar, fact which allows improvement of the performance.

  9. Detecting a stochastic background of gravitational radiation Signal processing strategies and sensitivities

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, B; Allen, Bruce; Romano, Joseph D.

    1999-01-01

    We analyze the signal processing required for the optimal detection of a stochastic background of gravitational radiation using laser interferometric detectors. Starting with basic assumptions about the statistical properties of a stochastic gravity-wave background, we derive expressions for the optimal filter function and signal-to-noise ratio for the cross-correlation of the outputs of two gravity-wave detectors. Sensitivity levels required for detection are then calculated. Issues related to: (i) calculating the signal-to-noise ratio for arbitrarily large stochastic backgrounds, (ii) performing the data analysis in the presence of nonstationary detector noise, (iii) combining data from multiple detector pairs to increase the sensitivity of a stochastic background search, (iv) correlating the outputs of 4 or more detectors, and (v) allowing for the possibility of correlated noise in the outputs of two detectors are discussed. We briefly describe a computer simulation which mimics the generation and detectio...

  10. Aperiodic signals processing via parameter-tuning stochastic resonance in a photorefractive ring cavity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Li

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Based on solving numerically the generalized nonlinear Langevin equation describing the nonlinear dynamics of stochastic resonance by Fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, an aperiodic stochastic resonance based on an optical bistable system is numerically investigated. The numerical results show that a parameter-tuning stochastic resonance system can be realized by choosing the appropriate optical bistable parameters, which performs well in reconstructing aperiodic signals from a very high level of noise background. The influences of optical bistable parameters on the stochastic resonance effect are numerically analyzed via cross-correlation, and a maximum cross-correlation gain of 8 is obtained by optimizing optical bistable parameters. This provides a prospective method for reconstructing noise-hidden weak signals in all-optical signal processing systems.

  11. Aperiodic signals processing via parameter-tuning stochastic resonance in a photorefractive ring cavity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xuefeng, E-mail: lixfpost@163.com [School of Science, Xi' an University of Post and Telecommunications, Xi' an, 710121 (China); Cao, Guangzhan; Liu, Hongjun [Xi' an Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi' an, 710119 (China)

    2014-04-15

    Based on solving numerically the generalized nonlinear Langevin equation describing the nonlinear dynamics of stochastic resonance by Fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, an aperiodic stochastic resonance based on an optical bistable system is numerically investigated. The numerical results show that a parameter-tuning stochastic resonance system can be realized by choosing the appropriate optical bistable parameters, which performs well in reconstructing aperiodic signals from a very high level of noise background. The influences of optical bistable parameters on the stochastic resonance effect are numerically analyzed via cross-correlation, and a maximum cross-correlation gain of 8 is obtained by optimizing optical bistable parameters. This provides a prospective method for reconstructing noise-hidden weak signals in all-optical signal processing systems.

  12. Valuing Credit Default Swap under a double exp onential jump diff usion model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Rui-cheng; PANG Mao-xiu; JIN Zhuang

    2014-01-01

    This paper discusses the valuation of the Credit Default Swap based on a jump market, in which the asset price of a firm follows a double exponential jump diff usion process, the value of the debt is driven by a geometric Brownian motion, and the default barrier follows a continuous stochastic process. Using the Gaver-Stehfest algorithm and the non-arbitrage asset pricing theory, we give the default probability of the first passage time, and more, derive the price of the Credit Default Swap.

  13. EXISTENCE OF UNIQUE LIMITING PROBABILITY VECTORS IN STOCHASTIC PROCESSES WITH MULTIPLE TRANSITION MATRICES

    OpenAIRE

    Mjelde, James W.; Harris, Wesley D.; Conner, J. Richard; Schnitkey, Gary D.; Glover, Michael K.; Garoian, Lee

    1992-01-01

    Concepts associated with stochastic process containing multiple transition matricies are discussed. It is proved that under certain conditions, a process with m transition matrices has m unique limiting probability vectors. This result extends the notion of discrete Markov processes to problems with intrayear and interyear dynamics. An example using a large DP model illustrates the usefulness of the concepts developed to applied problems.

  14. Stochastic Modelling of Shiroro River Stream flow Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Musa, J. J

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Economists, social scientists and engineers provide insights into the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the options for adaptation and mitigation, and yet other scientists, including geographers and biologists, study the impacts of climate change. This project concentrates mainly on the discharge from the Shiroro River. A stochastic approach is presented for modeling a time series by an Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA. The development and use of a stochastic stream flow model involves some basic steps such as obtain stream flow record and other information, Selecting models that best describes the marginal probability distribution of flows. The flow discharge of about 22 years (1990-2011 was gotten from the Meteorological Station at Shiroro and analyzed with three different models namely; Autoregressive (AR model, Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model. The initial model identification is done by using the autocorrelation function (ACF and partial autocorrelation function (PACF. Based on the model analysis and evaluations, proper predictions for the effective usage of the flow from the river for farming activities and generation of power for both industrial and domestic us were made. It also highlights some recommendations to be made to utilize the possible potentials of the river effectively

  15. Consensus states of local majority rule in stochastic process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Yu-Pin [Department of Electronic Engineering, National Formosa University, Huwei, 63201, Taiwan (China); Tang, Chia-Wei; Xu, Hong-Yuan [Department of Physics, Chung-Yuan Christian University, Chungli, 32023, Taiwan (China); Wu, Jinn-Wen [Department of Applied Mathematics, Chung-Yuan Christian University, Chungli, 32023, Taiwan (China); Huang, Ming-Chang, E-mail: mchuang@cycu.edu.tw [Center for Theoretical Science and Department of Physics, Chung-Yuan Christian University, Chungli, 32023, Taiwan (China)

    2015-04-03

    A sufficient condition for a network system to reach a consensus state of the local majority rule is shown. The influence of interpersonal environment on the occurrence probability of consensus states for Watts–Strogatz and scale-free networks with random initial states is analyzed by numerical method. We also propose a stochastic local majority rule to study the mean first passage time from a random state to a consensus and the escape rate from a consensus state for systems in a noisy environment. Our numerical results show that there exists a window of fluctuation strengths for which the mean first passage time from a random to a consensus state reduces greatly, and the escape rate of consensus states obeys the Arrhenius equation in the window. - Highlights: • A sufficient condition for reaching a consensus. • The relation between the geometry of networks and the reachability of a consensus. • Stochastic local majority rule. • The mean first-passage time and the escape rate of consensus states.

  16. Asymptotic Behaviour and Extinction of Delay Lotka-Volterra Model with Jump-Diffusion

    OpenAIRE

    Dan Li,; Jing’an Cui; Guohua Song

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the effect of jump-diffusion random environmental perturbations on the asymptotic behaviour and extinction of Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with delays. The contributions of this paper lie in the following: (a) to consider delay stochastic differential equation with jumps, we introduce a proper initial data space, in which the initial data may be discontinuous function with downward jumps; (b) we show that the delay stochastic differential equation with jumps associate...

  17. Single cell analysis reveals the stochastic phase of reprogramming to pluripotency is an ordered probabilistic process.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyung-Min Chung

    Full Text Available Despite years of research, the reprogramming of human somatic cells to pluripotency remains a slow, inefficient process, and a detailed mechanistic understanding of reprogramming remains elusive. Current models suggest reprogramming to pluripotency occurs in two-phases: a prolonged stochastic phase followed by a rapid deterministic phase. In this paradigm, the early stochastic phase is marked by the random and gradual expression of pluripotency genes and is thought to be a major rate-limiting step in the successful generation of induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs. Recent evidence suggests that the epigenetic landscape of the somatic cell is gradually reset during a period known as the stochastic phase, but it is known neither how this occurs nor what rate-limiting steps control progress through the stochastic phase. A precise understanding of gene expression dynamics in the stochastic phase is required in order to answer these questions. Moreover, a precise model of this complex process will enable the measurement and mechanistic dissection of treatments that enhance the rate or efficiency of reprogramming to pluripotency. Here we use single-cell transcript profiling, FACS and mathematical modeling to show that the stochastic phase is an ordered probabilistic process with independent gene-specific dynamics. We also show that partially reprogrammed cells infected with OSKM follow two trajectories: a productive trajectory toward increasingly ESC-like expression profiles or an alternative trajectory leading away from both the fibroblast and ESC state. These two pathways are distinguished by the coordinated expression of a small group of chromatin modifiers in the productive trajectory, supporting the notion that chromatin remodeling is essential for successful reprogramming. These are the first results to show that the stochastic phase of reprogramming in human fibroblasts is an ordered, probabilistic process with gene-specific dynamics and to

  18. Single cell analysis reveals the stochastic phase of reprogramming to pluripotency is an ordered probabilistic process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kyung-Min; Kolling, Frederick W; Gajdosik, Matthew D; Burger, Steven; Russell, Alexander C; Nelson, Craig E

    2014-01-01

    Despite years of research, the reprogramming of human somatic cells to pluripotency remains a slow, inefficient process, and a detailed mechanistic understanding of reprogramming remains elusive. Current models suggest reprogramming to pluripotency occurs in two-phases: a prolonged stochastic phase followed by a rapid deterministic phase. In this paradigm, the early stochastic phase is marked by the random and gradual expression of pluripotency genes and is thought to be a major rate-limiting step in the successful generation of induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs). Recent evidence suggests that the epigenetic landscape of the somatic cell is gradually reset during a period known as the stochastic phase, but it is known neither how this occurs nor what rate-limiting steps control progress through the stochastic phase. A precise understanding of gene expression dynamics in the stochastic phase is required in order to answer these questions. Moreover, a precise model of this complex process will enable the measurement and mechanistic dissection of treatments that enhance the rate or efficiency of reprogramming to pluripotency. Here we use single-cell transcript profiling, FACS and mathematical modeling to show that the stochastic phase is an ordered probabilistic process with independent gene-specific dynamics. We also show that partially reprogrammed cells infected with OSKM follow two trajectories: a productive trajectory toward increasingly ESC-like expression profiles or an alternative trajectory leading away from both the fibroblast and ESC state. These two pathways are distinguished by the coordinated expression of a small group of chromatin modifiers in the productive trajectory, supporting the notion that chromatin remodeling is essential for successful reprogramming. These are the first results to show that the stochastic phase of reprogramming in human fibroblasts is an ordered, probabilistic process with gene-specific dynamics and to provide a precise

  19. Levy-Student processes for a stochastic model of beam halos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petroni, N. Cufaro [Department of Mathematics, University of Bari, and INFN Sezione di Bari, via E. Orabona 4, 70125 Bari (Italy)]. E-mail: cufaro@ba.infn.it; De Martino, S. [Department of Physics, University of Salerno, and INFN Sezione di Napoli (gruppo di Salerno), Via S. Allende, I-84081 Baronissi (SA) (Italy); De Siena, S. [Department of Physics, University of Salerno, and INFN Sezione di Napoli (gruppo di Salerno), Via S. Allende, I-84081 Baronissi (SA) (Italy); Illuminati, F. [Department of Physics, University of Salerno, and INFN Sezione di Napoli (gruppo di Salerno), Via S. Allende, I-84081 Baronissi (SA) (Italy)

    2006-06-01

    We describe the transverse beam distribution in particle accelerators within the controlled, stochastic dynamical scheme of the stochastic mechanics which produces time reversal invariant diffusion processes. In this paper we analyze the consequences of introducing the generalized Student laws, namely non-Gaussian, Levy infinitely divisible (but not stable) distributions. We will analyze this idea from two different standpoints: (a) first by supposing that the stationary distribution of our (Wiener powered) stochastic model is a Student distribution; (b) by supposing that our model is based on a (non-Gaussian) Levy process whose increments are Student distributed. In the case (a) the longer tails of the power decay of the Student laws, and in the case (b) the discontinuities of the Levy-Student process can well account for the rare escape of particles from the beam core, and hence for the formation of a halo in intense beams.

  20. John Cage's Number Pieces as Stochastic Processes: a Large-Scale Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Popoff, Alexandre

    2013-01-01

    The Number Pieces are a corpus of works by composer John Cage, which rely on a particular time-structure used for determining the temporal location of sounds, named the "time-bracket". The time-bracket system is an inherently stochastic process, which complicates the analysis of the Number Pieces as it leads to a large number of possibilities in terms of sonic content instead of one particular fixed performance. The purpose of this paper is to propose a statistical approach of the Number Pieces by assimilating them to stochastic processes. Two Number Pieces, "Four" and "Five", are studied here in terms of pitch-class set content: the stochastic processes at hand lead to a collection of random variables indexed over time giving the distribution of the possible pitch-class sets. This approach allows for a static and dynamic analysis of the score encompassing all the possible outcomes during the performance of these works.

  1. Fractional L\\'{e}vy-driven Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes and stochastic differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Fink, Holger; 10.3150/10-BEJ281

    2011-01-01

    Using Riemann-Stieltjes methods for integrators of bounded $p$-variation we define a pathwise integral driven by a fractional L\\'{e}vy process (FLP). To explicitly solve general fractional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) we introduce an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model by a stochastic integral representation, where the driving stochastic process is an FLP. To achieve the convergence of improper integrals, the long-time behavior of FLPs is derived. This is sufficient to define the fractional L\\'{e}vy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (FLOUP) pathwise as an improper Riemann-Stieltjes integral. We show further that the FLOUP is the unique stationary solution of the corresponding Langevin equation. Furthermore, we calculate the autocovariance function and prove that its increments exhibit long-range dependence. Exploiting the Langevin equation, we consider SDEs driven by FLPs of bounded $p$-variation for $p<2$ and construct solutions using the corresponding FLOUP. Finally, we consider examples of such SDEs, includin...

  2. Realistic boundary conditions for stochastic simulations of reaction-diffusion processes

    CERN Document Server

    Erban, R; Erban, Radek

    2006-01-01

    Many cellular and subcellular biological processes can be described in terms of diffusing and chemically reacting species (e.g. enzymes). Such reaction-diffusion processes can be mathematically modelled using either deterministic partial-differential equations or stochastic simulation algorithms. The latter provide a more detailed and precise picture, and several stochastic simulation algorithms have been proposed in recent years. Such models typically give the same description of the reaction-diffusion processes far from the boundary of the simulated domain, but the behaviour close to a reactive boundary (e.g. a membrane with receptors) is unfortunately model-dependent. In this paper, we study four different approaches to stochastic modelling of reaction-diffusion problems and show the correct choice of the boundary condition for each model. The reactive boundary is treated as partially reflective, which means that some molecules hitting the boundary are adsorbed (e.g. bound to the receptor) and some molecul...

  3. Stochastic lattice gas model describing the dynamics of the SIRS epidemic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souza, David R.; Tomé, Tânia

    2010-03-01

    We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed of individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local rules and involves the following cyclic process: S → I → R → S (SIRS). The open process S → I → R (SIR) is studied as a particular case of the SIRS process. The epidemic process is analyzed at different levels of description: by a stochastic lattice gas model and by a birth and death process. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical mean-field approximations we show that the SIRS stochastic lattice gas model exhibit a line of critical points separating the two phases: an absorbing phase where the lattice is completely full of S individuals and an active phase where S, I and R individuals coexist, which may or may not present population cycles. The critical line, that corresponds to the onset of epidemic spreading, is shown to belong in the directed percolation universality class. By considering the birth and death process we analyze the role of noise in stabilizing the oscillations.

  4. STOCHASTIC PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS DRIVEN BY MULTI-PARAMETER WHITE NOISE OF LÉVY PROCESSES

    OpenAIRE

    Øksendal, Bernt

    2007-01-01

    We give a short introduction to the white noise theory for multiparameter Lévy processes and its application to stochastic partial differential equations driven by such processes. Examples include temperature distribution with a Lévy white noise heat source, and heat propagation with a multiplicative Lévy white noise heat source.

  5. A Family of Poisson Processes for Use in Stochastic Models of Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penland, C.

    2013-12-01

    Both modified Poisson processes and compound Poisson processes can be relevant to stochastic parameterization of precipitation. This presentation compares the dynamical properties of these systems and discusses the physical situations in which each might be appropriate. If the parameters describing either class of systems originate in hydrodynamics, then proper consideration of stochastic calculus is required during numerical implementation of the parameterization. It is shown here that an improper numerical treatment can have severe implications for estimating rainfall distributions, particularly in the tails of the distributions and, thus, on the frequency of extreme events.

  6. Doubly stochastic Poisson process models for precipitation at fine time-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, Nadarajah I.; Onof, Christian; Xie, Dichao

    2012-09-01

    This paper considers a class of stochastic point process models, based on doubly stochastic Poisson processes, in the modelling of rainfall. We examine the application of this class of models, a neglected alternative to the widely-known Poisson cluster models, in the analysis of fine time-scale rainfall intensity. These models are mainly used to analyse tipping-bucket raingauge data from a single site but an extension to multiple sites is illustrated which reveals the potential of this class of models to study the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation at fine time-scales.

  7. Parameters estimation using the first passage times method in a jump-diffusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaldi, K.; Meddahi, S.

    2016-06-01

    The main purposes of this paper are two contributions: (1) it presents a new method, which is the first passage time (FPT method) generalized for all passage times (GPT method), in order to estimate the parameters of stochastic Jump-Diffusion process. (2) it compares in a time series model, share price of gold, the empirical results of the estimation and forecasts obtained with the GPT method and those obtained by the moments method and the FPT method applied to the Merton Jump-Diffusion (MJD) model.

  8. Robust guaranteed cost observer design for linear uncertain jump systems with state delays

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FU Yan-ming; ZHANG Bo; DUAN Guang-ren

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with the robust guaranteed cost observer with guaranteed cost performance for a class of linear uncertain jump systems with state delay. The transition of the jumping parameters in systems is governed by a finite-state Markov process. Based on the stability theory in stochastic differential equations, a sufficient condition on the existence of the proposed robust guaranteed cost observer is derived. Robust guaran-teed cost observers are designed in terms of a set of linear coupled matrix inequalities. A convex optimization problem with LMI constraints is formulated to design the suboptimal guaranteed cost observers.

  9. Modelling Meso-Scale Diffusion Processes in Stochastic Fluid Bio-Membranes

    CERN Document Server

    Rafii-Tabar, H

    1999-01-01

    The space-time dynamics of rigid inhomogeneities (inclusions) free to move in a randomly fluctuating fluid bio-membrane is derived and numerically simulated as a function of the membrane shape changes. Both vertically placed (embedded) inclusions and horizontally placed (surface) inclusions are considered. The energetics of the membrane, as a two-dimensional (2D) meso-scale continuum sheet, is described by the Canham-Helfrich Hamiltonian, with the membrane height function treated as a stochastic process. The diffusion parameter of this process acts as the link coupling the membrane shape fluctuations to the kinematics of the inclusions. The latter is described via Ito stochastic differential equation. In addition to stochastic forces, the inclusions also experience membrane-induced deterministic forces. Our aim is to simulate the diffusion-driven aggregation of inclusions and show how the external inclusions arrive at the sites of the embedded inclusions. The model has potential use in such emerging fields as...

  10. Two-particle anomalous diffusion: probability density functions and self-similar stochastic processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagnini, Gianni; Mura, Antonio; Mainardi, Francesco

    2013-05-13

    Two-particle dispersion is investigated in the context of anomalous diffusion. Two different modelling approaches related to time subordination are considered and unified in the framework of self-similar stochastic processes. By assuming a single-particle fractional Brownian motion and that the two-particle correlation function decreases in time with a power law, the particle relative separation density is computed for the cases with time sub-ordination directed by a unilateral M-Wright density and by an extremal Lévy stable density. Looking for advisable mathematical properties (for instance, the stationarity of the increments), the corresponding self-similar stochastic processes are represented in terms of fractional Brownian motions with stochastic variance, whose profile is modelled by using the M-Wright density or the Lévy stable density.

  11. A stochastic model for the indicated pressure process and the dynamics of the internal combustion engine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rizzoni, G. (Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (USA). Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science)

    1989-08-01

    In-cylinder gas pressure has long been recognized as a fundamental measure of performance in the internal combustion engine. Among the issues that have been the subject of research in recent years is the study of the effects cyclic combustion variability has on the cycle-to-cycle and cylinder-to-cylinder fluctuations in combustion pressures. Some of the research problems pertaining to cyclic combustion variability are to reformulate from a perspective markedly different from the fluid dynamic and thermodynamic models which traditionally characterize this research: a system viewpoint is embraced to construct a stochastic model for the indicated pressure process and the dynamics of the internal combustion engine. First a deterministic model for the dynamics of the engine is described; then a stochastic model is proposed for the cylinder pressure process. The deterministic model and the stochastic representation are then tied together in a Kalman filter model. Experimental results are discussed to validate the models.

  12. Stochastic Analysis 2010

    CERN Document Server

    Crisan, Dan

    2011-01-01

    "Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa

  13. A Survey of Stochastic Simulation and Optimization Methods in Signal Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereyra, Marcelo; Schniter, Philip; Chouzenoux, Emilie; Pesquet, Jean-Christophe; Tourneret, Jean-Yves; Hero, Alfred O.; McLaughlin, Steve

    2016-03-01

    Modern signal processing (SP) methods rely very heavily on probability and statistics to solve challenging SP problems. SP methods are now expected to deal with ever more complex models, requiring ever more sophisticated computational inference techniques. This has driven the development of statistical SP methods based on stochastic simulation and optimization. Stochastic simulation and optimization algorithms are computationally intensive tools for performing statistical inference in models that are analytically intractable and beyond the scope of deterministic inference methods. They have been recently successfully applied to many difficult problems involving complex statistical models and sophisticated (often Bayesian) statistical inference techniques. This survey paper offers an introduction to stochastic simulation and optimization methods in signal and image processing. The paper addresses a variety of high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods as well as deterministic surrogate methods, such as variational Bayes, the Bethe approach, belief and expectation propagation and approximate message passing algorithms. It also discusses a range of optimization methods that have been adopted to solve stochastic problems, as well as stochastic methods for deterministic optimization. Subsequently, areas of overlap between simulation and optimization, in particular optimization-within-MCMC and MCMC-driven optimization are discussed.

  14. Stochasticity and determinism: how density-independent and density-dependent processes affect population variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlberger, Jan; Rogers, Lauren A; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2014-01-01

    A persistent debate in population ecology concerns the relative importance of environmental stochasticity and density dependence in determining variability in adult year-class strength, which contributes to future reproduction as well as potential yield in exploited populations. Apart from the strength of the processes, the timing of density regulation may affect how stochastic variation, for instance through climate, translates into changes in adult abundance. In this study, we develop a life-cycle model for the population dynamics of a large marine fish population, Northeast Arctic cod, to disentangle the effects of density-independent and density-dependent processes on early life-stages, and to quantify the strength of compensatory density dependence in the population. The model incorporates information from scientific surveys and commercial harvest, and dynamically links multiple effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on all life-stages, from eggs to spawners. Using a state-space approach we account for observation error and stochasticity in the population dynamics. Our findings highlight the importance of density-dependent survival in juveniles, indicating that this period of the life cycle largely determines the compensatory capacity of the population. Density regulation at the juvenile life-stage dampens the impact of stochastic processes operating earlier in life such as environmental impacts on the production of eggs and climate-dependent survival of larvae. The timing of stochastic versus regulatory processes thus plays a crucial role in determining variability in adult abundance. Quantifying the contribution of environmental stochasticity and compensatory mechanisms in determining population abundance is essential for assessing population responses to climate change and exploitation by humans.

  15. A Stochastic Maximum Principle for Optimal Control of Jump Diffusions and Applications to Finance%跳扩散最优控制的随机最大值原理及在金融中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史敬涛; 吴臻

    2011-01-01

    An optimal control problem motivated by a portfolio and consumption choice problem in the financial market where the expected utility of the investor is assumed to be the Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) case is discussed. A local stochastic maximum principle is obtained in the jump-diffusion setting using classical variational method. The result is applied to make optimal portfolio and consumption choice strategy for the problem and the explicit optimal solution in the state feedback form is given.%讨论了由金融市场中投资组合和消费选择问题引出的一类最优控制问题,投资者的期望效用是常数相对风险厌恶(CRRA)情形.在跳扩散框架下,利用古典变分法得到了一个局部随机最大值原理.结果应用到最优投资组合和消费选择策略问题,得到了状态反馈形式的显式最优解.

  16. 基于ℋ表示的时变随机Markov跳跃系统的能观性%Observability of time-varying stochastic Markov jump systems based onℋ-representation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    盛立; 高明; 张维海

    2015-01-01

    研究时变连续和离散随机Markov跳跃系统(SMJSs)的能观性问题。基于ℋ表示方法将时变SMJSs转化为等价的时变线性系统,根据线性系统理论得到时变连续和离散SMJSs的能观性Gramian矩阵判据。数值仿真表明了所得结论的正确性。%The observability of time-varying continuous and discrete-time stochastic Markov jump systems(SMJSs) is investigated. Time-varying SMJSs are transformed into the equivalent time-varying linear systems based on the ℋ-representation method. Gramian matrix criteria for the observability of time-varying continuous and discrete-time SMJSs are derived based on the linear system theory. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the correctness of the obtained results.

  17. Electrostatic charging of jumping droplets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miljkovic, Nenad; Preston, Daniel J.; Enright, Ryan; Wang, Evelyn N.

    2013-09-01

    With the broad interest in and development of superhydrophobic surfaces for self-cleaning, condensation heat transfer enhancement and anti-icing applications, more detailed insights on droplet interactions on these surfaces have emerged. Specifically, when two droplets coalesce, they can spontaneously jump away from a superhydrophobic surface due to the release of excess surface energy. Here we show that jumping droplets gain a net positive charge that causes them to repel each other mid-flight. We used electric fields to quantify the charge on the droplets and identified the mechanism for the charge accumulation, which is associated with the formation of the electric double layer at the droplet-surface interface. The observation of droplet charge accumulation provides insight into jumping droplet physics as well as processes involving charged liquid droplets. Furthermore, this work is a starting point for more advanced approaches for enhancing jumping droplet surface performance by using external electric fields to control droplet jumping.

  18. Indirect Inference for Stochastic Differential Equations Based on Moment Expansions

    KAUST Repository

    Ballesio, Marco

    2016-01-06

    We provide an indirect inference method to estimate the parameters of timehomogeneous scalar diffusion and jump diffusion processes. We obtain a system of ODEs that approximate the time evolution of the first two moments of the process by the approximation of the stochastic model applying a second order Taylor expansion of the SDE s infinitesimal generator in the Dynkin s formula. This method allows a simple and efficient procedure to infer the parameters of such stochastic processes given the data by the maximization of the likelihood of an approximating Gaussian process described by the two moments equations. Finally, we perform numerical experiments for two datasets arising from organic and inorganic fouling deposition phenomena.

  19. Approximations of Stochastic Equations Driven by Predictable Processes,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-12-01

    a process of bounded variation , the first two terms are approximated by smoother processes, but the bounded variation processes are left fixed. Thus...equations with differentials of possibly discontinuous semimartingales. Lebesgue-Stieltjes integrals are used in [2] when differentials of bounded variation processes

  20. ℋ∞ constant gain state feedback stabilization of stochastic hybrid systems with Wiener process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. K. Boukas

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the stabilization problem of the class of continuous-time linear stochastic hybrid systems with Wiener process. The ℋ∞ state feedback stabilization problem is treated. A state feedback controller with constant gain that does not require access to the system mode is designed. LMI-based conditions are developed to design the state feedback controller with constant gain that stochastically stabilizes the studied class of systems and, at the same time, achieve the disturbance rejection of a desired level. The minimum disturbance rejection is also determined. Numerical examples are given to show the usefulness of the proposed results.

  1. Stochastic processes and functional analysis a volume of recent advances in honor of M. M. Rao

    CERN Document Server

    Krinik, Alan C

    2004-01-01

    This extraordinary compilation is an expansion of the recent American Mathematical Society Special Session celebrating M. M. Rao's distinguished career and includes most of the presented papers as well as ancillary contributions from session invitees. This book shows the effectiveness of abstract analysis for solving fundamental problems of stochastic theory, specifically the use of functional analytic methods for elucidating stochastic processes, as made manifest in M. M. Rao's prolific research achievements. Featuring a biography of M. M. Rao, a complete bibliography of his published works,

  2. Information transfer with rate-modulated Poisson processes: a simple model for nonstationary stochastic resonance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goychuk, I

    2001-08-01

    Stochastic resonance in a simple model of information transfer is studied for sensory neurons and ensembles of ion channels. An exact expression for the information gain is obtained for the Poisson process with the signal-modulated spiking rate. This result allows one to generalize the conventional stochastic resonance (SR) problem (with periodic input signal) to the arbitrary signals of finite duration (nonstationary SR). Moreover, in the case of a periodic signal, the rate of information gain is compared with the conventional signal-to-noise ratio. The paper establishes the general nonequivalence between both measures notwithstanding their apparent similarity in the limit of weak signals.

  3. Information transfer with rate-modulated Poisson processes: A simple model for nonstationary stochastic resonance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goychuk, Igor

    2001-08-01

    Stochastic resonance in a simple model of information transfer is studied for sensory neurons and ensembles of ion channels. An exact expression for the information gain is obtained for the Poisson process with the signal-modulated spiking rate. This result allows one to generalize the conventional stochastic resonance (SR) problem (with periodic input signal) to the arbitrary signals of finite duration (nonstationary SR). Moreover, in the case of a periodic signal, the rate of information gain is compared with the conventional signal-to-noise ratio. The paper establishes the general nonequivalence between both measures notwithstanding their apparent similarity in the limit of weak signals.

  4. Optimal variational principle for backward stochastic control systems associated with Lévy processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG MaoNing; ZHANG Qi

    2012-01-01

    The paper is concerned with optimal control of backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE)driven by Teugel's martingales and an independent multi-dimensional Brownian motion,where Teugel's martingales are a family of pairwise strongly orthonormal martingales associated with Lévy processes (see e.g.,Nualart and Schoutens' paper in 2000).We derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of the optimal control by means of convex variation methods and duality techniques.As an application,the optimal control problem of linear backward stochastic differential equation with a quadratic cost criteria (or backward linear-quadratic problem,or BLQ problem for short) is discussed and characterized by a stochastic Hamilton system.

  5. A variance propagation algorithm for stochastic heat and mass transfer problems in food processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheerlinck, N.; Verboven, P.; Stigter, J.D.; Baerdemaeker, de J.; Impe, van J.F.; Nicolai, B.M.

    2001-01-01

    A variance propagation algorithm for stochastic coupled heat and mass transfer problems subjected to first order autoregressive random process boundary conditions was developed. The algorithm is based on the finite element formulation of Luikov's coupled heat and mass transfer equations and involves

  6. Strategy Complexity of Finite-Horizon Markov Decision Processes and Simple Stochastic Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen-Jensen, Rasmus; Chatterjee, Krishnendu

    2012-01-01

    Markov decision processes (MDPs) and simple stochastic games (SSGs) provide a rich mathematical framework to study many important problems related to probabilistic systems. MDPs and SSGs with finite-horizon objectives, where the goal is to maximize the probability to reach a target state in a given...

  7. Generalized Backward Doubly Stochastic Differential Equations Driven by Lévy Processes with Continuous Coefficients

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Auguste AMAN; Jean Marc OWO

    2012-01-01

    A new class of generalized backward doubly stochastic differential equations (GBDSDEs in short) driven by Teugels martingales associated with Lévy process are investigated.We establish a comparison theorem which allows us to derive an existence result of solutions under continuous and linear growth conditions.

  8. Bisimulation Algorithms for StochasticProcess Algebras and their BDD-based Implementation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katoen, Joost P.; Hermanns, H.; Siegle, M.

    1999-01-01

    Stochastic process algebras have been introduced in order to enable compositional performance analysis. The size of the state space is a limiting factor, especially if the system consists of many cooperating components. To fight state space explosion, various proposals for compositional aggregation

  9. Measuring edge importance: a quantitative analysis of the stochastic shielding approximation for random processes on graphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Deena R; Thomas, Peter J

    2014-04-17

    Mathematical models of cellular physiological mechanisms often involve random walks on graphs representing transitions within networks of functional states. Schmandt and Galán recently introduced a novel stochastic shielding approximation as a fast, accurate method for generating approximate sample paths from a finite state Markov process in which only a subset of states are observable. For example, in ion-channel models, such as the Hodgkin-Huxley or other conductance-based neural models, a nerve cell has a population of ion channels whose states comprise the nodes of a graph, only some of which allow a transmembrane current to pass. The stochastic shielding approximation consists of neglecting fluctuations in the dynamics associated with edges in the graph not directly affecting the observable states. We consider the problem of finding the optimal complexity reducing mapping from a stochastic process on a graph to an approximate process on a smaller sample space, as determined by the choice of a particular linear measurement functional on the graph. The partitioning of ion-channel states into conducting versus nonconducting states provides a case in point. In addition to establishing that Schmandt and Galán's approximation is in fact optimal in a specific sense, we use recent results from random matrix theory to provide heuristic error estimates for the accuracy of the stochastic shielding approximation for an ensemble of random graphs. Moreover, we provide a novel quantitative measure of the contribution of individual transitions within the reaction graph to the accuracy of the approximate process.

  10. Stochastic simulation by image quilting of process-based geological models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffimann, Júlio; Scheidt, Celine; Barfod, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    . In this work, we further develop image quilting as a method for 3D stochastic simulation capable of mimicking the realism of process-based geological models with minimal modeling effort (i.e. parameter tuning) and at the same time condition them to a variety of data. In particular, we develop a new...

  11. Explicit calibration and simulation of stochastic fields by low-order ARMA processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen

    2011-01-01

    A simple framework for autoregressive simulation of stochastic fields is presented. The autoregressive format leads to a simple exponential correlation structure in the time-dimension. In the case of scalar processes a more detailed correlation structure can be obtained by adding memory to the pr......A simple framework for autoregressive simulation of stochastic fields is presented. The autoregressive format leads to a simple exponential correlation structure in the time-dimension. In the case of scalar processes a more detailed correlation structure can be obtained by adding memory......-space' variables in the simulation. For a scalar process this would imply an increase of the dimension of the process to be simulated. In the case of a stochastic field the correlation in the time-dimension is represented, although indirectly, in the simultaneous spatial correlation. The model with the shortest...... memory -the single-step autoregressive model - is analyzed in detail, and an efficient multi-step calibration procedure is developed. The calibration makes direct use of conditional correlations and means, expressed explicitly in terms of the zero and k-step correlation matrices of the stochastic field...

  12. Some Results for Classical Risk Process with Stochastic Return on Investments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo-jing Wang; Rong Wu

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss the classical risk process with stochastic return on investment. We prove some properties of the ruin probability, the supremum distribution before ruin and the surplus distribution at the time of ruin and derive the integro-differential equations satisfied by these distributions respectively.

  13. Option Pricing with a Levy-Type Stochastic Dynamic Model for Stock Price Process Under Semi-Markovian Structural Perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-30

    Scientific Publishing Company DOI : 10.1142/S0219024915500521 OPTION PRICING WITH A LEVY-TYPE STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC MODEL FOR STOCK PRICE PROCESS UNDER SEMI...Applebaum (2009) Levy Processes and Stochastic Calculus . Cambridge University Press. K. Back & S. R. Pliska (1991) On the fundamental theorem of asset

  14. Generalized Fleming-Viot processes with immigration via stochastic flows of partitions

    CERN Document Server

    Foucart, Clément

    2011-01-01

    The generalized Fleming-Viot processes were defined in 1999 by Donnelly and Kurtz using a particle model and by Bertoin and Le Gall in 2003 using stochastic flows of bridges. In both methods, the key argument used to characterize these processes is the duality between these processes and exchangeable coalescents. A larger class of coalescent processes, called distinguished coalescents, was set up recently to incorporate an immigration phenomenon in the underlying population. The purpose of this article is to define and characterize a class of probability-measure valued processes called the generalized Fleming-Viot processes with immigration. We consider some stochastic flows of partitions of Z_{+}, in the same spirit as Bertoin and Le Gall's flows, replacing roughly speaking, composition of bridges by coagulation of partitions. Identifying at any time a population with the integers $\\mathbb{N}:=\\{1,2,...\\}$, the formalism of partitions is effective in the past as well as in the future especially when there ar...

  15. Analyzing long-term correlated stochastic processes by means of recurrence networks: Potentials and pitfalls

    CERN Document Server

    Zou, Yong; Kurths, Jürgen

    2014-01-01

    Long-range correlated processes are ubiquitous, ranging from climate variables to financial time series. One paradigmatic example for such processes is fractional Brownian motion (fBm). In this work, we highlight the potentials and conceptual as well as practical limitations when applying the recently proposed recurrence network (RN) approach to fBm and related stochastic processes. In particular, we demonstrate that the results of a previous application of RN analysis to fBm (Liu \\textit{et al.,} Phys. Rev. E \\textbf{89}, 032814 (2014)) are mainly due to an inappropriate treatment disregarding the intrinsic non-stationarity of such processes. Complementarily, we analyze some RN properties of the closely related stationary fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) processes and find that the resulting network properties are well-defined and behave as one would expect from basic conceptual considerations. Our results demonstrate that RN analysis can indeed provide meaningful results for stationary stochastic processes, ...

  16. SOLUTION TO BSDE WITH NONHOMOGENEOUS JUMPS UNDER LOCALLY LIPSCHITZIAN CONDITION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the existence and uniqueness of the solution to a quasilinear backward stochastic differential equation with Poisson jumps. By introducing a series of approximate equations, we can show that BSDE has a unique adapted solution.

  17. Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

    2016-01-01

    Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

  18. Temporal Beta Diversity of Bird Assemblages in Agricultural Landscapes: Land Cover Change vs. Stochastic Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baselga, Andrés; Bonthoux, Sébastien; Balent, Gérard

    2015-01-01

    Temporal variation in the composition of species assemblages could be the result of deterministic processes driven by environmental change and/or stochastic processes of colonization and local extinction. Here, we analyzed the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic processes on bird assemblages in an agricultural landscape of southwestern France. We first assessed the impact of land cover change that occurred between 1982 and 2007 on (i) the species composition (presence/absence) of bird assemblages and (ii) the spatial pattern of taxonomic beta diversity. We also compared the observed temporal change of bird assemblages with a null model accounting for the effect of stochastic dynamics on temporal beta diversity. Temporal assemblage dissimilarity was partitioned into two separate components, accounting for the replacement of species (i.e. turnover) and for the nested species losses (or gains) from one time to the other (i.e. nestedness-resultant dissimilarity), respectively. Neither the turnover nor the nestedness-resultant components of temporal variation were accurately explained by any of the measured variables accounting for land cover change (r(2)turnover and 13% of sites for nestedness-resultant dissimilarity. Taken together, our results suggest that land cover change in this agricultural landscape had little impact on temporal beta diversity of bird assemblages. Although other unmeasured deterministic process could be driving the observed patterns, it is also possible that the observed changes in presence/absence species composition of local bird assemblages might be the consequence of stochastic processes in which species populations appeared and disappeared from specific localities in a random-like way. Our results might be case-specific, but if stochastic dynamics are generally dominant, the ability of correlative and mechanistic models to predict land cover change effects on species composition would be compromised.

  19. Environmentally transmitted parasites: Host-jumping in a heterogeneous environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caraco, Thomas; Cizauskas, Carrie A; Wang, Ing-Nang

    2016-05-21

    Groups of chronically infected reservoir-hosts contaminate resource patches by shedding a parasite׳s free-living stage. Novel-host groups visit the same patches, where they are exposed to infection. We treat arrival at patches, levels of parasite deposition, and infection of the novel host as stochastic processes, and derive the expected time elapsing until a host-jump (initial infection of a novel host) occurs. At stationarity, mean parasite densities are independent of reservoir-host group size. But within-patch parasite-density variances increase with reservoir group size. The probability of infecting a novel host declines with parasite-density variance; consequently larger reservoir groups extend the mean waiting time for host-jumping. Larger novel-host groups increase the probability of a host-jump during any single patch visit, but also reduce the total number of visits per unit time. Interaction of these effects implies that the waiting time for the first infection increases with the novel-host group size. If the reservoir-host uses resource patches in any non-uniform manner, reduced spatial overlap between host species increases the waiting time for host-jumping.

  20. Approximation of Jump Diffusions in Finance and Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Nicola Bruti-Liberati; Eckhard Platen

    2006-01-01

    In finance and economics the key dynamics are often specified via stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of jump-diffusion type. The class of jump-diffusion SDEs that admits explicit solutions is rather limited. Consequently, discrete time approximations are required. In this paper we give a survey of strong and weak numerical schemes for SDEs with jumps. Strong schemes provide pathwise approximations and therefore can be employed in scenario analysis, filtering or hedge simulation. Weak sc...

  1. Analysis and design of singular Markovian jump systems

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Guoliang; Yan, Xinggang

    2014-01-01

    This monograph is an up-to-date presentation of the analysis and design of singular Markovian jump systems (SMJSs) in which the transition rate matrix of the underlying systems is generally uncertain, partially unknown and designed. The problems addressed include stability, stabilization, H∞ control and filtering, observer design, and adaptive control. applications of Markov process are investigated by using Lyapunov theory, linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), S-procedure and the stochastic Barbalat's Lemma, among other techniques.Features of the book include:·???????? study of the stability pr

  2. Viscosity Solution of Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection of a Jump Markov Process with No-Shorting Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moussa Kounta

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the so-called mean-variance portfolio selection problem in continuous time under the constraint that the short-selling of stocks is prohibited where all the market coefficients are random processes. In this situation the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equation of the value function of the auxiliary problem becomes a coupled system of backward stochastic partial differential equation. In fact, the value function V often does not have the smoothness properties needed to interpret it as a solution to the dynamic programming partial differential equation in the usual (classical sense; however, in such cases V can be interpreted as a viscosity solution. Here we show the unicity of the viscosity solution and we see that the optimal and the value functions are piecewise linear functions based on some Riccati differential equations. In particular we solve the open problem posed by Li and Zhou and Zhou and Yin.

  3. "Just another hoop to jump through?" using environmental laws and processes to protect indigenous rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth Rose

    2013-11-01

    Protection of culturally important indigenous landscapes has become an increasingly important component of environmental management processes, for both companies and individuals striving to comply with environmental regulations, and for indigenous groups seeking stronger laws to support site protection and cultural/human rights. Given that indigenous stewardship of culturally important sites, species, and practices continues to be threatened or prohibited on lands out of indigenous ownership, this paper examines whether or not indigenous people can meaningfully apply mainstream environmental management laws and processes to achieve protection of traditional sites and associated stewardship activities. While environmental laws can provide a "back door" to protect traditional sites and practices, they are not made for this purpose, and, as such, require specific amendments to become more useful for indigenous practitioners. Acknowledging thoughtful critiques of the cultural incommensurability of environmental law with indigenous environmental stewardship of sacred sites, I interrogate the ability of four specific environmental laws and processes-the Uniform Conservation Easement Act; the National Environmental Policy Act and the California Environmental Quality Act; the Pacific Stewardship Council land divestiture process; and Senate Bill 18 (CA-2004)-to protect culturally important landscapes and practices. I offer suggestions for improving these laws and processes to make them more applicable to indigenous stewardship of traditional landscapes.

  4. An application of stochastic processes for analyzing risks in highway projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Meysam Mousavi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The successes on highway projects are uncertain because of organizational features, improper scope definitions and long lasting complicated processes. Highway projects under uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout their life cycles. Risk management within highway projects, therefore, has been recognized vital to improve their performances and increase the success of these projects. Processes of the projects are dynamic by nature. Therefore, commonly used static techniques do not analyze the potential risks properly. The stochastic process is a highly effective tool to quantitatively deal with the risk analysis. In this paper, a new approach based on Markov chain is proposed to assess the potential risks of highway projects in a dynamic framework. The approach takes advantage of the capability of probabilistic tools. Furthermore, using an application example in highway projects, the proposed approach is demonstrated in detail. Finally, the risk management effectiveness of using the stochastic processes is illustrated.

  5. A unified formulation of Gaussian vs. sparse stochastic processes - Part I: Continuous-domain theory

    CERN Document Server

    Unser, Michael; Sun, Qiyu

    2011-01-01

    We introduce a general distributional framework that results in a unifying description and characterization of a rich variety of continuous-time stochastic processes. The cornerstone of our approach is an innovation model that is driven by some generalized white noise process, which may be Gaussian or not (e.g., Laplace, impulsive Poisson or alpha stable). This allows for a conceptual decoupling between the correlation properties of the process, which are imposed by the whitening operator L, and its sparsity pattern which is determined by the type of noise excitation. The latter is fully specified by a Levy measure. We show that the range of admissible innovation behavior varies between the purely Gaussian and super-sparse extremes. We prove that the corresponding generalized stochastic processes are well-defined mathematically provided that the (adjoint) inverse of the whitening operator satisfies some Lp bound for p>=1. We present a novel operator-based method that yields an explicit characterization of all...

  6. Generalized Fractional Master Equation for Self-Similar Stochastic Processes Modelling Anomalous Diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianni Pagnini

    2012-01-01

    inhomogeneity and nonstationarity properties of the medium. For instance, when this superposition is applied to the time-fractional diffusion process, the resulting Master Equation emerges to be the governing equation of the Erdélyi-Kober fractional diffusion, that describes the evolution of the marginal distribution of the so-called generalized grey Brownian motion. This motion is a parametric class of stochastic processes that provides models for both fast and slow anomalous diffusion: it is made up of self-similar processes with stationary increments and depends on two real parameters. The class includes the fractional Brownian motion, the time-fractional diffusion stochastic processes, and the standard Brownian motion. In this framework, the M-Wright function (known also as Mainardi function emerges as a natural generalization of the Gaussian distribution, recovering the same key role of the Gaussian density for the standard and the fractional Brownian motion.

  7. Stochastic calculus for uncoupled continuous-time random walks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germano, Guido; Politi, Mauro; Scalas, Enrico; Schilling, René L

    2009-06-01

    The continuous-time random walk (CTRW) is a pure-jump stochastic process with several applications not only in physics but also in insurance, finance, and economics. A definition is given for a class of stochastic integrals driven by a CTRW, which includes the Itō and Stratonovich cases. An uncoupled CTRW with zero-mean jumps is a martingale. It is proved that, as a consequence of the martingale transform theorem, if the CTRW is a martingale, the Itō integral is a martingale too. It is shown how the definition of the stochastic integrals can be used to easily compute them by Monte Carlo simulation. The relations between a CTRW, its quadratic variation, its Stratonovich integral, and its Itō integral are highlighted by numerical calculations when the jumps in space of the CTRW have a symmetric Lévy alpha -stable distribution and its waiting times have a one-parameter Mittag-Leffler distribution. Remarkably, these distributions have fat tails and an unbounded quadratic variation. In the diffusive limit of vanishing scale parameters, the probability density of this kind of CTRW satisfies the space-time fractional diffusion equation (FDE) or more in general the fractional Fokker-Planck equation, which generalizes the standard diffusion equation, solved by the probability density of the Wiener process, and thus provides a phenomenologic model of anomalous diffusion. We also provide an analytic expression for the quadratic variation of the stochastic process described by the FDE and check it by Monte Carlo.

  8. Recurrence plots of discrete-time Gaussian stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramdani, Sofiane; Bouchara, Frédéric; Lagarde, Julien; Lesne, Annick

    2016-09-01

    We investigate the statistical properties of recurrence plots (RPs) of data generated by discrete-time stationary Gaussian random processes. We analytically derive the theoretical values of the probabilities of occurrence of recurrence points and consecutive recurrence points forming diagonals in the RP, with an embedding dimension equal to 1. These results allow us to obtain theoretical values of three measures: (i) the recurrence rate (REC) (ii) the percent determinism (DET) and (iii) RP-based estimation of the ε-entropy κ(ε) in the sense of correlation entropy. We apply these results to two Gaussian processes, namely first order autoregressive processes and fractional Gaussian noise. For these processes, we simulate a number of realizations and compare the RP-based estimations of the three selected measures to their theoretical values. These comparisons provide useful information on the quality of the estimations, such as the minimum required data length and threshold radius used to construct the RP.

  9. From Birds to Bacteria: Generalised Velocity Jump Processes with Resting States

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taylor-King, J.P.; van Loon, E.E.; Rosser, G.; Chapman, S.J.

    2015-01-01

    There are various cases of animal movement where behaviour broadly switches between two modes of operation, corresponding to a long-distance movement state and a resting or local movement state. Here, a mathematical description of this process is formulated, adapted from Friedrich et al. (Phys Rev

  10. Using Institutional Survey Data to Jump-Start Your Benchmarking Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Timothy K. C.

    2012-01-01

    Guided by the missions and visions, higher education institutions utilize benchmarking processes to identify better and more efficient ways to carry out their operations. Aside from the initial planning and organization steps involved in benchmarking, a matching or selection step is crucial for identifying other institutions that have good…

  11. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  12. Modeling laser velocimeter signals as triply stochastic Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, W. T., Jr.

    1976-01-01

    Previous models of laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) systems have not adequately described dual-scatter signals in a manner useful for analysis and simulation of low-level photon-limited signals. At low photon rates, an LDV signal at the output of a photomultiplier tube is a compound nonhomogeneous filtered Poisson process, whose intensity function is another (slower) Poisson process with the nonstationary rate and frequency parameters controlled by a random flow (slowest) process. In the present paper, generalized Poisson shot noise models are developed for low-level LDV signals. Theoretical results useful in detection error analysis and simulation are presented, along with measurements of burst amplitude statistics. Computer generated simulations illustrate the difference between Gaussian and Poisson models of low-level signals.

  13. Stochastic model of milk homogenization process using Markov's chain

    OpenAIRE

    A. A. Khvostov; R. S. Sumina; G. I. Kotov; Ivanov, A. V.

    2016-01-01

    The process of development of a mathematical model of the process of homogenization of dairy products is considered in the work. The theory of Markov's chains was used in the development of the mathematical model, Markov's chain with discrete states and continuous parameter for which the homogenisation pressure is taken, being the basis for the model structure. Machine realization of the model is implemented in the medium of structural modeling MathWorks Simulink™. Identification of the model...

  14. Thermodynamic and stochastic theory of hydrodynamic and power-producing processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, J.

    1992-09-16

    Thermodynamics of the transport processes of diffusion, thermal conduction, and viscous flow at a macroscopic level are developed for the simplest cases of one-dimensional transport in fluids for individual linear and nonlinear processes approaching a stationary non-equilibrium state. Formulation has started of thermodynamic and stochastic theory of combinations of transport processes. Global thermodynamic and stochastic theory of open chemical systems frar from equilibrium is continued with analysis of a broad class of isothermal, multicomponent reaction mechanisms with multiple steady states with assumed local equilibrium. Stationary solutions are obtained of the master equation for single and multi-intermediate autocatalytic chemical systems. A kinetic potential is identified that governs the deterministic time evolution of coupled tank reactors. A second-order response theory was developed to investigate the effects of external periodic perturbations on a chemical reaction at a stable steady state in an open reactor.

  15. Stochastic Greybox Modeling of an Alternating Activated Sludge Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus Fogtmann; Munk-Nielsen, T.; Tychsen, P.;

    Summary of key findings We found a greybox model for state estimation and control of the BioDenitro process based on a reduced ASM1. We then applied Maximum Likelihood Estimation on measurements from a real full-scale waste water treatment plant to estimate the model parameters. The estimation me...

  16. Transition probabilities in a problem of stochastic process switching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veestraeten, D.

    2009-01-01

    Flood and Garber (1983), Smith (1991), and Froot and Obstfeld (1991a,b) examined the return of the United Kingdom to the gold standard in 1925 as an example of state-contingent process switching. They calculated the exchange rate via the density function of the …rst-passage time through the announce

  17. Stochastic model of milk homogenization process using Markov's chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Khvostov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of development of a mathematical model of the process of homogenization of dairy products is considered in the work. The theory of Markov's chains was used in the development of the mathematical model, Markov's chain with discrete states and continuous parameter for which the homogenisation pressure is taken, being the basis for the model structure. Machine realization of the model is implemented in the medium of structural modeling MathWorks Simulink™. Identification of the model parameters was carried out by minimizing the standard deviation calculated from the experimental data for each fraction of dairy products fat phase. As the set of experimental data processing results of the micrographic images of fat globules of whole milk samples distribution which were subjected to homogenization at different pressures were used. Pattern Search method was used as optimization method with the Latin Hypercube search algorithm from Global Optimization Тoolbox library. The accuracy of calculations averaged over all fractions of 0.88% (the relative share of units, the maximum relative error was 3.7% with the homogenization pressure of 30 MPa, which may be due to the very abrupt change in properties from the original milk in the particle size distribution at the beginning of the homogenization process and the lack of experimental data at homogenization pressures of below the specified value. The mathematical model proposed allows to calculate the profile of volume and mass distribution of the fat phase (fat globules in the product, depending on the homogenization pressure and can be used in the laboratory and research of dairy products composition, as well as in the calculation, design and modeling of the process equipment of the dairy industry enterprises.

  18. An Introduction to the Theory of Self-Similar Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Embrechts, Paul; Maejima, Makoto

    Self-similar processes such as fractional Brownian motion are stochastic processes that are invariant in distribution under suitable scaling of time and space. These processes can typically be used to model random phenomena with long-range dependence. Naturally, these processes are closely related to the notion of renormalization in statistical and high energy physics. They are also increasingly important in many other fields of application, as there are economics and finance. This paper starts with some basic aspects on self-similar processes and discusses several topics from the point of view of probability theory.

  19. The transmission process: A combinatorial stochastic process for the evolution of transmission trees over networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainudiin, Raazesh; Welch, David

    2016-12-07

    We derive a combinatorial stochastic process for the evolution of the transmission tree over the infected vertices of a host contact network in a susceptible-infected (SI) model of an epidemic. Models of transmission trees are crucial to understanding the evolution of pathogen populations. We provide an explicit description of the transmission process on the product state space of (rooted planar ranked labelled) binary transmission trees and labelled host contact networks with SI-tags as a discrete-state continuous-time Markov chain. We give the exact probability of any transmission tree when the host contact network is a complete, star or path network - three illustrative examples. We then develop a biparametric Beta-splitting model that directly generates transmission trees with exact probabilities as a function of the model parameters, but without explicitly modelling the underlying contact network, and show that for specific values of the parameters we can recover the exact probabilities for our three example networks through the Markov chain construction that explicitly models the underlying contact network. We use the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) to consistently infer the two parameters driving the transmission process based on observations of the transmission trees and use the exact MLE to characterize equivalence classes over the space of contact networks with a single initial infection. An exploratory simulation study of the MLEs from transmission trees sampled from three other deterministic and four random families of classical contact networks is conducted to shed light on the relation between the MLEs of these families with some implications for statistical inference along with pointers to further extensions of our models. The insights developed here are also applicable to the simplest models of "meme" evolution in online social media networks through transmission events that can be distilled from observable actions such as "likes", "mentions

  20. Exact protein distributions for stochastic models of gene expression using partitioning of Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendar, Hodjat; Platini, Thierry; Kulkarni, Rahul V.

    2013-04-01

    Stochasticity in gene expression gives rise to fluctuations in protein levels across a population of genetically identical cells. Such fluctuations can lead to phenotypic variation in clonal populations; hence, there is considerable interest in quantifying noise in gene expression using stochastic models. However, obtaining exact analytical results for protein distributions has been an intractable task for all but the simplest models. Here, we invoke the partitioning property of Poisson processes to develop a mapping that significantly simplifies the analysis of stochastic models of gene expression. The mapping leads to exact protein distributions using results for mRNA distributions in models with promoter-based regulation. Using this approach, we derive exact analytical results for steady-state and time-dependent distributions for the basic two-stage model of gene expression. Furthermore, we show how the mapping leads to exact protein distributions for extensions of the basic model that include the effects of posttranscriptional and posttranslational regulation. The approach developed in this work is widely applicable and can contribute to a quantitative understanding of stochasticity in gene expression and its regulation.

  1. Hill's Equation with Small Fluctuations: Cycle to Cycle Variations and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Adams, Fred C

    2013-01-01

    Hill's equations arise in a wide variety of physical problems, and are specified by a natural frequency, a periodic forcing function, and a forcing strength parameter. This classic problem is generalized here in two ways: [A] to Random Hill's equations which allow the forcing strength q_k, the oscillation frequency \\lambda_k, and the period \\tau_k of the forcing function to vary from cycle to cycle, and [B] to Stochastic Hill's equations which contain (at least) one additional term that is a stochastic process \\xi. This paper considers both random and stochastic Hill's equations with small parameter variations, so that p_k=q_k-, \\ell_k=\\lambda_k-, and \\xi are all O(\\epsilon), where \\epsilon<<1. We show that random Hill's equations and stochastic Hill's equations have the same growth rates when the parameter variations p_k and \\ell_k obey certain constraints given in terms of the moments of \\xi. For random Hill's equations, the growth rates for the solutions are given by the growth rates of a matrix tran...

  2. Multi-Well Potentials in Quantum Mechanics and Stochastic Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor P. Berezovoj

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Using the formalism of extended N=4 supersymmetric quantum mechanics we consider the procedure of the construction of multi-well potentials. We demonstrate the form-invariance of Hamiltonians entering the supermultiplet, using the presented relation for integrals, which contain fundamental solutions. The possibility of partial N=4 supersymmetry breaking is determined. We also obtain exact forms of multi-well potentials, both symmetric and asymmetric, using the Hamiltonian of harmonic oscillator as initial. The modification of the shape of potentials due to variation of parameters is also discussed, as well as application of the obtained results to the study of tunneling processes. We consider the case of exact, as well as partially broken N=4 supersymmetry. The distinctive feature of obtained probability densities and potentials is a parametric freedom, which allows to substantially modify their shape. We obtain the expressions for probability densities under the generalization of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

  3. Anomalous diffusion and scaling in coupled stochastic processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bel, Golan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nemenman, Ilya [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Inspired by problems in biochemical kinetics, we study statistical properties of an overdamped Langevin processes with the friction coefficient depending on the state of a similar, unobserved, process. Integrating out the latter, we derive the Pocker-Planck the friction coefficient of the first depends on the state of the second. Integrating out the latter, we derive the Focker-Planck equation for the probability distribution of the former. This has the fonn of diffusion equation with time-dependent diffusion coefficient, resulting in an anomalous diffusion. The diffusion exponent can not be predicted using a simple scaling argument, and anomalous scaling appears as well. The diffusion exponent of the Weiss-Havlin comb model is derived as a special case, and the same exponent holds even for weakly coupled processes. We compare our theoretical predictions with numerical simulations and find an excellent agreement. The findings caution against treating biochemical systems with unobserved dynamical degrees of freedom by means of standandard, diffusive Langevin descritpion.

  4. Stochastic simulation by image quilting of process-based geological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffimann, Júlio; Scheidt, Céline; Barfod, Adrian; Caers, Jef

    2017-09-01

    Process-based modeling offers a way to represent realistic geological heterogeneity in subsurface models. The main limitation lies in conditioning such models to data. Multiple-point geostatistics can use these process-based models as training images and address the data conditioning problem. In this work, we further develop image quilting as a method for 3D stochastic simulation capable of mimicking the realism of process-based geological models with minimal modeling effort (i.e. parameter tuning) and at the same time condition them to a variety of data. In particular, we develop a new probabilistic data aggregation method for image quilting that bypasses traditional ad-hoc weighting of auxiliary variables. In addition, we propose a novel criterion for template design in image quilting that generalizes the entropy plot for continuous training images. The criterion is based on the new concept of voxel reuse-a stochastic and quilting-aware function of the training image. We compare our proposed method with other established simulation methods on a set of process-based training images of varying complexity, including a real-case example of stochastic simulation of the buried-valley groundwater system in Denmark.

  5. Reliability Analysis of Repairable Systems Using Stochastic Point Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TAN Fu-rong; JIANG Zhi-bin; BAI Tong-shuo

    2008-01-01

    In order to analyze the failure data from repairable systems, the homogeneous Poisson process(HPP) is usually used. In general, HPP cannot be applied to analyze the entire life cycle of a complex, re-pairable system because the rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) of the system changes over time rather thanremains stable. However, from a practical point of view, it is always preferred to apply the simplest methodto address problems and to obtain useful practical results. Therefore, we attempted to use the HPP model toanalyze the failure data from real repairable systems. A graphic method and the Laplace test were also usedin the analysis. Results of numerical applications show that the HPP model may be a useful tool for the entirelife cycle of repairable systems.

  6. Tempered stable distributions stochastic models for multiscale processes

    CERN Document Server

    Grabchak, Michael

    2015-01-01

    This brief is concerned with tempered stable distributions and their associated Levy processes. It is a good text for researchers interested in learning about tempered stable distributions.  A tempered stable distribution is one which takes a stable distribution and modifies its tails to make them lighter. The motivation for this class comes from the fact that infinite variance stable distributions appear to provide a good fit to data in a variety of situations, but the extremely heavy tails of these models are not realistic for most real world applications. The idea of using distributions that modify the tails of stable models to make them lighter seems to have originated in the influential paper of Mantegna and Stanley (1994). Since then, these distributions have been extended and generalized in a variety of ways. They have been applied to a wide variety of areas including mathematical finance, biostatistics,computer science, and physics.

  7. Aquatic bacterial assemblage structure in Pozas Azules, Cuatro Cienegas Basin, Mexico: Deterministic vs. stochastic processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinosa-Asuar, Laura; Escalante, Ana Elena; Gasca-Pineda, Jaime; Blaz, Jazmín; Peña, Lorena; Eguiarte, Luis E; Souza, Valeria

    2015-06-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the contributions of stochastic vs. deterministic processes in the distribution of microbial diversity in four ponds (Pozas Azules) within a temporally stable aquatic system in the Cuatro Cienegas Basin, State of Coahuila, Mexico. A sampling strategy for sites that were geographically delimited and had low environmental variation was applied to avoid obscuring distance effects. Aquatic bacterial diversity was characterized following a culture-independent approach (16S sequencing of clone libraries). The results showed a correlation between bacterial beta diversity (1-Sorensen) and geographic distance (distance decay of similarity), which indicated the influence of stochastic processes related to dispersion in the assembly of the ponds' bacterial communities. Our findings are the first to show the influence of dispersal limitation in the prokaryotic diversity distribution of Cuatro Cienegas Basin. Copyright© by the Spanish Society for Microbiology and Institute for Catalan Studies.

  8. Correlation techniques for the improvement of signal-to-noise ratio in measurements with stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Reddy, V R; Reddy, T G; Reddy, P Y; Reddy, K R

    2003-01-01

    An AC modulation technique is described to convert stochastic signal variations into an amplitude variation and its retrieval through Fourier analysis. It is shown that this AC detection of signals of stochastic processes when processed through auto- and cross-correlation techniques improve the signal-to-noise ratio; the correlation techniques serve a similar purpose of frequency and phase filtering as that of phase-sensitive detection. A few model calculations applied to nuclear spectroscopy measurements such as Angular Correlations, Mossbauer spectroscopy and Pulse Height Analysis reveal considerable improvement in the sensitivity of signal detection. Experimental implementation of the technique is presented in terms of amplitude variations of harmonics representing the derivatives of normal spectra. Improved detection sensitivity to spectral variations is shown to be significant. These correlation techniques are general and can be made applicable to all the fields of particle counting where measurements ar...

  9. Whole-field visual motion drives swimming in larval zebrafish via a stochastic process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portugues, Ruben; Haesemeyer, Martin; Blum, Mirella L; Engert, Florian

    2015-05-01

    Caudo-rostral whole-field visual motion elicits forward locomotion in many organisms, including larval zebrafish. Here, we investigate the dependence on the latency to initiate this forward swimming as a function of the speed of the visual motion. We show that latency is highly dependent on speed for slow speeds (1.5 s, which is much longer than neuronal transduction processes. What mechanisms underlie these long latencies? We propose two alternative, biologically inspired models that could account for this latency to initiate swimming: an integrate and fire model, which is history dependent, and a stochastic Poisson model, which has no history dependence. We use these models to predict the behavior of larvae when presented with whole-field motion of varying speed and find that the stochastic process shows better agreement with the experimental data. Finally, we discuss possible neuronal implementations of these models.

  10. Coarse-grained stochastic processes and Monte Carlo simulations in lattice systems

    CERN Document Server

    Katsoulakis, M A; Vlachos, D G

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we present a new class of coarse-grained stochastic processes and Monte Carlo simulations, derived directly from microscopic lattice systems and describing mesoscopic length scales. As our primary example, we mainly focus on a microscopic spin-flip model for the adsorption and desorption of molecules between a surface adjacent to a gas phase, although a similar analysis carries over to other processes. The new model can capture large scale structures, while retaining microscopic information on intermolecular forces and particle fluctuations. The requirement of detailed balance is utilized as a systematic design principle to guarantee correct noise fluctuations for the coarse-grained model. We carry out a rigorous asymptotic analysis of the new system using techniques from large deviations and present detailed numerical comparisons of coarse-grained and microscopic Monte Carlo simulations. The coarse-grained stochastic algorithms provide large computational savings without increasing programming ...

  11. Stationary and related stochastic processes sample function properties and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cramér, Harald

    2004-01-01

    This graduate-level text offers a comprehensive account of the general theory of stationary processes, with special emphasis on the properties of sample functions. Assuming a familiarity with the basic features of modern probability theory, the text develops the foundations of the general theory of stochastic processes, examines processes with a continuous-time parameter, and applies the general theory to procedures key to the study of stationary processes. Additional topics include analytic properties of the sample functions and the problem of time distribution of the intersections between a

  12. 关于鼠笼硬质跳线制作工艺的探讨%On the Production Process of Squirrel Cage Hard Jumping Wire

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谈朝霞

    2012-01-01

      阐述了引流跳线安装是架空输电线路附件安装的重要组成部分,跳线安装位置的准确性、美观性直接影响输电线路工程的施工工艺,鼠笼硬质跳线安装的关键主要从准备工作、钢管架安装、鼠笼箍架吊装、工艺控制等方面加以控制。探讨了输电线路工程架线施工中鼠笼硬跳线的安装方法,并对鼠笼硬跳线安装工艺的控制难点、要点进行了分析。%  The installation of drainage jumper wire is an important part of attachment installation in the process of transmission line stringing construction work. Accuracy and beauty of the position of jumping wire have direct influence on the construction process in the transmission line project. The installation of squirrel cage hard jumping wire is mainly controlled from the preparation,steel frame installation,hoisting of squirrel cage hoop frame,process control and etc. . This paper introduces the installation methods of squirrel cage hard jumping wire in the process of transmission line stringing construction,and also analyzes the control points in the installation of the squirrel cage hard jumping wires.

  13. A decision dependent stochastic process model for repairable systems with applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul F. Zantek

    2015-12-01

    This paper mathematically formalizes the notion of how management actions impact the functioning of a repairable system over time by developing a new stochastic process model for such systems. The proposed model is illustrated using both simulated and real data. The proposed model compares favorably to other models for well-known data on Boeing airplanes. The model is further illustrated and compared to other models on failure time and maintenance data stemming from the South Texas Project nuclear power plant.

  14. Stochastic processes, optimization, and control theory a volume in honor of Suresh Sethi

    CERN Document Server

    Yan, Houmin

    2006-01-01

    This edited volume contains 16 research articles. It presents recent and pressing issues in stochastic processes, control theory, differential games, optimization, and their applications in finance, manufacturing, queueing networks, and climate control. One of the salient features is that the book is highly multi-disciplinary. The book is dedicated to Professor Suresh Sethi on the occasion of his 60th birthday, in view of his distinguished career.

  15. Model-free stochastic processes studied with q-wavelet-based informational tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez, D.G. [Instituto de Fisica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso (PUCV), 23-40025 Valparaiso (Chile)]. E-mail: dario.perez@ucv.cl; Zunino, L. [Centro de Investigaciones Opticas, C.C. 124 Correo Central, 1900 La Plata (Argentina) and Departamento de Ciencias Basicas, Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP), 1900 La Plata (Argentina) and Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)]. E-mail: lucianoz@ciop.unlp.edu.ar; Martin, M.T. [Instituto de Fisica (IFLP), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata and Argentina' s National Council (CONICET), C.C. 727, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)]. E-mail: mtmartin@venus.unlp.edu.ar; Garavaglia, M. [Centro de Investigaciones Opticas, C.C. 124 Correo Central, 1900 La Plata (Argentina) and Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)]. E-mail: garavagliam@ciop.unlp.edu.ar; Plastino, A. [Instituto de Fisica (IFLP), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata and Argentina' s National Council (CONICET), C.C. 727, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)]. E-mail: plastino@venus.unlp.edu.ar; Rosso, O.A. [Chaos and Biology Group, Instituto de Calculo, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Pabellon II, Ciudad Universitaria, 1428 Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina)]. E-mail: oarosso@fibertel.com.ar

    2007-04-30

    We undertake a model-free investigation of stochastic processes employing q-wavelet based quantifiers, that constitute a generalization of their Shannon counterparts. It is shown that (i) interesting physical information becomes accessible in such a way (ii) for special q values the quantifiers are more sensitive than the Shannon ones and (iii) there exist an implicit relationship between the Hurst parameter H and q within this wavelet framework.

  16. Some Algorithms to Identify Rational Structures in Stochastic Processes with Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Concepción González-Concepción

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This research was concerned with the identification of rational models in stochastic processes and we use the Padé-Laurent Approximation to identify a Transfer-Function Model with Expectations. We mention the T-table method and focus in studying the generalised epsilon-algorithm, emphasizing the main role of the statistical significance of their numerical entries. Empirical work is made for non-causal TF models using both simulated and economic real data.

  17. Introduction to the theory of stochastic processes and Brownian motion problems

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia-Palacios, J L

    2007-01-01

    These notes are an introduction to the theory of stochastic processes based on several sources. The presentation mainly follows the books of van Kampen and Wio, except for the introduction, which is taken from the book of Gardiner and the parts devoted to the Langevin equation and the methods for solving Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, which are based on the book of Risken.

  18. Relative frequencies of constrained events in stochastic processes: An analytical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusconi, S.; Akhmatskaya, E.; Sokolovski, D.; Ballard, N.; de la Cal, J. C.

    2015-10-01

    The stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) and the corresponding Monte Carlo (MC) method are among the most common approaches for studying stochastic processes. They relies on knowledge of interevent probability density functions (PDFs) and on information about dependencies between all possible events. Analytical representations of a PDF are difficult to specify in advance, in many real life applications. Knowing the shapes of PDFs, and using experimental data, different optimization schemes can be applied in order to evaluate probability density functions and, therefore, the properties of the studied system. Such methods, however, are computationally demanding, and often not feasible. We show that, in the case where experimentally accessed properties are directly related to the frequencies of events involved, it may be possible to replace the heavy Monte Carlo core of optimization schemes with an analytical solution. Such a replacement not only provides a more accurate estimation of the properties of the process, but also reduces the simulation time by a factor of order of the sample size (at least ≈104 ). The proposed analytical approach is valid for any choice of PDF. The accuracy, computational efficiency, and advantages of the method over MC procedures are demonstrated in the exactly solvable case and in the evaluation of branching fractions in controlled radical polymerization (CRP) of acrylic monomers. This polymerization can be modeled by a constrained stochastic process. Constrained systems are quite common, and this makes the method useful for various applications.

  19. Time change, jumping measure and Feller measure

    OpenAIRE

    He, Ping

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we shall investigate some potential theory for time change of Markov processes. Under weak duality, it is proved that the jumping measure and Feller measure are actually independent of time change, and the jumping measure of a time changed process induced by a PCAF supported on $V$ coincides with the sum of the Feller measure on $V$ and the trace of the original jumping measure on $V$.

  20. Filtering of Jump Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-10-30

    presented in the invited paper [0 ] given at the Workshop on Diffusion Approximation, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Austria, in...I also was invited by Professor Kallianpur to speak at the meeting on Diffusion Approximation held at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg

  1. Extended forms of the second law for general time-dependent stochastic processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Hao

    2009-08-01

    The second law of thermodynamics represents a universal principle applicable to all natural processes, physical systems, and engineering devices. Hatano and Sasa have recently put forward an extended form of the second law for transitions between nonequilibrium stationary states [Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 3463 (2001)]. In this paper we further extend this form to an instantaneous interpretation, which is satisfied by quite general time-dependent stochastic processes including master-equation models and Langevin dynamics without the requirements of the stationarity for the initial and final states. The theory is applied to several thermodynamic processes, and its consistence with the classical thermodynamics is shown.

  2. The Black-Scholes option pricing problem in mathematical finance: generalization and extensions for a large class of stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Sornette, Didier

    1994-06-01

    The ability to price risks and devise optimal investment strategies in thé présence of an uncertain "random" market is thé cornerstone of modern finance theory. We first consider thé simplest such problem of a so-called "European call option" initially solved by Black and Scholes using Ito stochastic calculus for markets modelled by a log-Brownien stochastic process. A simple and powerful formalism is presented which allows us to generalize thé analysis to a large class of stochastic processes, such as ARCH, jump or Lévy processes. We also address thé case of correlated Gaussian processes, which is shown to be a good description of three différent market indices (MATIF, CAC40, FTSE100). Our main result is thé introduction of thé concept of an optimal strategy in the sense of (functional) minimization of the risk with respect to the portfolio. If the risk may be made to vanish for particular continuous uncorrelated 'quasiGaussian' stochastic processes (including Black and Scholes model), this is no longer the case for more general stochastic processes. The value of the residual risk is obtained and suggests the concept of risk-corrected option prices. In the presence of very large deviations such as in Lévy processes, new criteria for rational fixing of the option prices are discussed. We also apply our method to other types of options, `Asian', `American', and discuss new possibilities (`doubledecker'...). The inclusion of transaction costs leads to the appearance of a natural characteristic trading time scale. L'aptitude à quantifier le coût du risque et à définir une stratégie optimale de gestion de portefeuille dans un marché aléatoire constitue la base de la théorie moderne de la finance. Nous considérons d'abord le problème le plus simple de ce type, à savoir celui de l'option d'achat `européenne', qui a été résolu par Black et Scholes à l'aide du calcul stochastique d'Ito appliqué aux marchés modélisés par un processus Log

  3. Competitive Lotka-Volterra Population Dynamics with Jumps

    CERN Document Server

    Bao, Jianhai; Yin, Geroge; Yuan, Chenggui

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers competitive Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with jumps. The contributions of this paper are as follows. (a) We show stochastic differential equation (SDE) with jumps associated with the model has a unique global positive solution; (b) We discuss the uniform boundedness of $p$th moment with $p>0$ and reveal the sample Lyapunov exponents; (c) Using a variation-of-constants formula for a class of SDEs with jumps, we provide explicit solution for 1-dimensional competitive Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with jumps, and investigate the sample Lyapunov exponent for each component and the extinction of our $n$-dimensional model.

  4. Temporal Beta Diversity of Bird Assemblages in Agricultural Landscapes: Land Cover Change vs. Stochastic Processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Baselga

    Full Text Available Temporal variation in the composition of species assemblages could be the result of deterministic processes driven by environmental change and/or stochastic processes of colonization and local extinction. Here, we analyzed the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic processes on bird assemblages in an agricultural landscape of southwestern France. We first assessed the impact of land cover change that occurred between 1982 and 2007 on (i the species composition (presence/absence of bird assemblages and (ii the spatial pattern of taxonomic beta diversity. We also compared the observed temporal change of bird assemblages with a null model accounting for the effect of stochastic dynamics on temporal beta diversity. Temporal assemblage dissimilarity was partitioned into two separate components, accounting for the replacement of species (i.e. turnover and for the nested species losses (or gains from one time to the other (i.e. nestedness-resultant dissimilarity, respectively. Neither the turnover nor the nestedness-resultant components of temporal variation were accurately explained by any of the measured variables accounting for land cover change (r(2<0.06 in all cases. Additionally, the amount of spatial assemblage heterogeneity in the region did not significantly change between 1982 and 2007, and site-specific observed temporal dissimilarities were larger than null expectations in only 1% of sites for temporal turnover and 13% of sites for nestedness-resultant dissimilarity. Taken together, our results suggest that land cover change in this agricultural landscape had little impact on temporal beta diversity of bird assemblages. Although other unmeasured deterministic process could be driving the observed patterns, it is also possible that the observed changes in presence/absence species composition of local bird assemblages might be the consequence of stochastic processes in which species populations appeared and disappeared from specific

  5. Design Tool Using a New Optimization Method Based on a Stochastic Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Hiroaki; Yamaguchi, Katsuhito; Ishikawa, Yoshio

    Conventional optimization methods are based on a deterministic approach since their purpose is to find out an exact solution. However, such methods have initial condition dependence and the risk of falling into local solution. In this paper, we propose a new optimization method based on the concept of path integrals used in quantum mechanics. The method obtains a solution as an expected value (stochastic average) using a stochastic process. The advantages of this method are that it is not affected by initial conditions and does not require techniques based on experiences. We applied the new optimization method to a hang glider design. In this problem, both the hang glider design and its flight trajectory were optimized. The numerical calculation results prove that performance of the method is sufficient for practical use.

  6. The Tool for Designing Engineering Systems Using a New Optimization Method Based on a Stochastic Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Hiroaki; Yamaguchi, Katsuhito; Ishikawa, Yoshio

    The conventional optimization methods were based on a deterministic approach, since their purpose is to find out an exact solution. However, these methods have initial condition dependence and risk of falling into local solution. In this paper, we propose a new optimization method based on a concept of path integral method used in quantum mechanics. The method obtains a solutions as an expected value (stochastic average) using a stochastic process. The advantages of this method are not to be affected by initial conditions and not to need techniques based on experiences. We applied the new optimization method to a design of the hang glider. In this problem, not only the hang glider design but also its flight trajectory were optimized. The numerical calculation results showed that the method has a sufficient performance.

  7. Susceptibility of optimal train schedules to stochastic disturbances of process times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rune; Pranzo, Marco; D’Ariano, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    This work focuses on the stochastic evaluation of train schedules computed by a microscopic scheduler of railway operations based on deterministic information. The research question is to assess the degree of sensitivity of various rescheduling algorithms to variations in process times (running...... and dwell times). In fact, the objective of railway traffic management is to reduce delay propagation and to increase disturbance robustness of train schedules at a network scale. We present a quantitative study of traffic disturbances and their effects on the schedules computed by simple and advanced...... rescheduling algorithms. Computational results are based on a complex and densely occupied Dutch railway area; train delays are computed based on accepted statistical distributions, and dwell and running times of trains are subject to additional stochastic variations. From the results obtained on a real case...

  8. Stochastic analysis and simulation of hydrometeorological processes for optimizing hybrid renewable energy systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsekouras, Georgios; Ioannou, Christos; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2013-04-01

    The drawbacks of conventional energy sources including their negative environmental impacts emphasize the need to integrate renewable energy sources into energy balance. However, the renewable sources strongly depend on time varying and uncertain hydrometeorological processes, including wind speed, sunshine duration and solar radiation. To study the design and management of hybrid energy systems we investigate the stochastic properties of these natural processes, including possible long-term persistence. We use wind speed and sunshine duration time series retrieved from a European database of daily records and we estimate representative values of the Hurst coefficient for both variables. We conduct simultaneous generation of synthetic time series of wind speed and sunshine duration, on yearly, monthly and daily scale. To this we use the Castalia software system which performs multivariate stochastic simulation. Using these time series as input, we perform stochastic simulation of an autonomous hypothetical hybrid renewable energy system and optimize its performance using genetic algorithms. For the system design we optimize the sizing of the system in order to satisfy the energy demand with high reliability also minimizing the cost. While the simulation scale is the daily, a simple method allows utilizing the subdaily distribution of the produced wind power. Various scenarios are assumed in order to examine the influence of input parameters, such as the Hurst coefficient, and design parameters such as the photovoltaic panel angle.

  9. Fractional Brownian motion, the Matérn process, and stochastic modeling of turbulent dispersion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilly, Jonathan M.; Sykulski, Adam M.; Early, Jeffrey J.; Olhede, Sofia C.

    2017-08-01

    Stochastic processes exhibiting power-law slopes in the frequency domain are frequently well modeled by fractional Brownian motion (fBm), with the spectral slope at high frequencies being associated with the degree of small-scale roughness or fractal dimension. However, a broad class of real-world signals have a high-frequency slope, like fBm, but a plateau in the vicinity of zero frequency. This low-frequency plateau, it is shown, implies that the temporal integral of the process exhibits diffusive behavior, dispersing from its initial location at a constant rate. Such processes are not well modeled by fBm, which has a singularity at zero frequency corresponding to an unbounded rate of dispersion. A more appropriate stochastic model is a much lesser-known random process called the Matérn process, which is shown herein to be a damped version of fractional Brownian motion. This article first provides a thorough introduction to fractional Brownian motion, then examines the details of the Matérn process and its relationship to fBm. An algorithm for the simulation of the Matérn process in O(NlogN) operations is given. Unlike fBm, the Matérn process is found to provide an excellent match to modeling velocities from particle trajectories in an application to two-dimensional fluid turbulence.

  10. Parameter inference for discretely observed stochastic kinetic models using stochastic gradient descent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christley Scott

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stochastic effects can be important for the behavior of processes involving small population numbers, so the study of stochastic models has become an important topic in the burgeoning field of computational systems biology. However analysis techniques for stochastic models have tended to lag behind their deterministic cousins due to the heavier computational demands of the statistical approaches for fitting the models to experimental data. There is a continuing need for more effective and efficient algorithms. In this article we focus on the parameter inference problem for stochastic kinetic models of biochemical reactions given discrete time-course observations of either some or all of the molecular species. Results We propose an algorithm for inference of kinetic rate parameters based upon maximum likelihood using stochastic gradient descent (SGD. We derive a general formula for the gradient of the likelihood function given discrete time-course observations. The formula applies to any explicit functional form of the kinetic rate laws such as mass-action, Michaelis-Menten, etc. Our algorithm estimates the gradient of the likelihood function by reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (RJMCMC, and then gradient descent method is employed to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation of parameter values. Furthermore, we utilize flux balance analysis and show how to automatically construct reversible jump samplers for arbitrary biochemical reaction models. We provide RJMCMC sampling algorithms for both fully observed and partially observed time-course observation data. Our methods are illustrated with two examples: a birth-death model and an auto-regulatory gene network. We find good agreement of the inferred parameters with the actual parameters in both models. Conclusions The SGD method proposed in the paper presents a general framework of inferring parameters for stochastic kinetic models. The method is

  11. Some Results on the Analysis of Stochastic Processes with Uncertain Transition Probabilities and Robust Optimal Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyong Li; Seong-Cheol Kang; I. Ch. Paschalidis

    2007-09-01

    This paper investigates stochastic processes that are modeled by a finite number of states but whose transition probabilities are uncertain and possibly time-varying. The treatment of uncertain transition probabilities is important because there appears to be a disconnection between the practice and theory of stochastic processes due to the difficulty of assigning exact probabilities to real-world events. Also, when the finite-state process comes as a reduced model of one that is more complicated in nature (possibly in a continuous state space), existing results do not facilitate rigorous analysis. Two approaches are introduced here. The first focuses on processes with one terminal state and the properties that affect their convergence rates. When a process is on a complicated graph, the bound of the convergence rate is not trivially related to that of the probabilities of individual transitions. Discovering the connection between the two led us to define two concepts which we call 'progressivity' and 'sortedness', and to a new comparison theorem for stochastic processes. An optimality criterion for robust optimal control also derives from this comparison theorem. In addition, this result is applied to the case of mission-oriented autonomous robot control to produce performance estimate within a control framework that we propose. The second approach is in the MDP frame work. We will introduce our preliminary work on optimistic robust optimization, which aims at finding solutions that guarantee the upper bounds of the accumulative discounted cost with prescribed probabilities. The motivation here is to address the issue that the standard robust optimal solution tends to be overly conservative.

  12. Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models by Nonparametric Filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanaya, Shin; Kristensen, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    /estimated volatility process replacing the latent process. Our estimation strategy is applicable to both parametric and nonparametric stochastic volatility models, and can handle both jumps and market microstructure noise. The resulting estimators of the stochastic volatility model will carry additional biases......A two-step estimation method of stochastic volatility models is proposed: In the first step, we nonparametrically estimate the (unobserved) instantaneous volatility process. In the second step, standard estimation methods for fully observed diffusion processes are employed, but with the filtered...... and variances due to the first-step estimation, but under regularity conditions we show that these vanish asymptotically and our estimators inherit the asymptotic properties of the infeasible estimators based on observations of the volatility process. A simulation study examines the finite-sample properties...

  13. Parameterization of Copulas and Covariance Decay of Stochastic Processes with Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Pumi, Guilherme

    2012-01-01

    In this work we study the problem of constructing stochastic processes with a predetermined covariance decay by parameterizing its marginals and a given family of copulas. We present several examples to illustrate the theory, including the important Gaussian and Euclidean families of copulas. We associate the theory to common applied time series models and present a general methodology to estimate a given parameter of interest identifiable through the process' covariance decay. To exemplify the proposed methodology, we present simple Monte Carlo applications to parameter estimation in time series. The methodology is also applied to the S&P500 US stock market index.

  14. A temperature-jump NMR probe setup using rf heating optimized for the analysis of temperature-induced biomacromolecular kinetic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinnenthal, Jörg; Wagner, Dominic; Marquardsen, Thorsten; Krahn, Alexander; Engelke, Frank; Schwalbe, Harald

    2015-02-01

    A novel temperature jump (T-jump) probe operational at B0 fields of 600 MHz (14.1 Tesla) with an integrated cage radio-frequency (rf) coil for rapid (HR) liquid-state NMR-spectroscopy is presented and its performance investigated. The probe consists of an inner 2.5 mm "heating coil" designed for generating rf-electric fields of 190-220 MHz across a lossy dielectric sample and an outer two coil assembly for 1H-, 2H- and 15N-nuclei. High B0 field homogeneities (0.7 Hz at 600 MHz) are combined with high heating rates (20-25 K/s) and only small temperature gradients (NMR console and can therefore easily be accessed by the pulse programmer. Furthermore, implementation of a real-time setup including synchronization of the NMR spectrometer's air flow heater with the rf-heater used to maintain the temperature of the sample is described. Finally, the applicability of the real-time T-jump setup for the investigation of biomolecular kinetic processes in the second-to-minute timescale is demonstrated for samples of a model 14mer DNA hairpin and a 15N-selectively labeled 40nt hsp17-RNA thermometer.

  15. Fractional Brownian motion, the Matern process, and stochastic modeling of turbulent dispersion

    CERN Document Server

    Lilly, J M; Early, J J; Olhede, S C

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic process exhibiting power-law slopes in the frequency domain are frequently well modeled by fractional Brownian motion (fBm). In particular, the spectral slope at high frequencies is associated with the degree of small-scale roughness or fractal dimension. However, a broad class of real-world signals have a high-frequency slope, like fBm, but a plateau in the vicinity of zero frequency. This low-frequency plateau, it is shown, implies that the temporal integral of the process exhibits diffusive behavior, dispersing from its initial location at a constant rate. Such processes are not well modeled by fBm, which has a singularity at zero frequency corresponding to an unbounded rate of dispersion. A more appropriate stochastic model is a much lesser-known random process called the Matern process, which is shown herein to be a damped version of fractional Brownian motion. This article first provides a thorough introduction to fractional Brownian motion, then examines the details of the Matern process and...

  16. Markov随机跳变系统的传感器系统误差估计%Estimation Method for Sensor System Error Based on Markov Stochastic Jump System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周林; 潘泉; 梁彦

    2012-01-01

    In order to resolve the problem of system error in a Markov stochastic jump system, this paper proposes a novel on-line system error estimation method based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and maximum likelihood. It uses a Metropolis-Hastings sampler to sample from an equitable probability density distributing function which is based on the maximum likelihood estimation. Besides, it can iteratively estimate system error by using expectation maximization (EM) based on the causation of system error estimation and state estimation. The paper simulates two scenes which include time-varying and time-invariant system errors, and the simulations show that this method can take into consideration the system error statistical characteristics, and is feasible and effective in estimating system errors to solve the case of the unknown target state model.%针对Markov随机跳变系统的系统误差估计问题,提出一种基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)和最大似然估计相结合的在线系统误差估计方法.利用最大似然估计给出系统误差等效后验概率分布函数,采用Metropolis-Hastings 抽样方法从该概率分布函数中进行抽样;利用系统误差估计和状态估计互为因果的关系,采用期望极大化(EM)方法迭代估计出最优的系统误差;分别对时变和时不变系统误差场景进行仿真分析,结果表明,在考虑系统误差统计特性的同时,所提方法对解决目标运动模型难以建立情况下的系统误差估计问题具有可行性和有效性.

  17. 带有Poisson跳的随机资产积累系统的最优逼近控制的必要条件%Necessary condition for the optimal approximating control in a stochastic capital accumulation system with Poisson jumps

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马晓莉; 张启敏

    2013-01-01

    讨论了一类带有Poisson跳的随机资产积累系统的最优逼近控制问题,应用Ekeland变分原理,Ito's公式及一些不等式,给出了随机资产积累系统最优逼近控制的必要条件.%In this paper,the optimal approximating control in a stochastic capital accumulation system with Poisson jumps is considered.A necessary condition for the optimal approximating control in a stochastic capital accumulation system is obtained by applying the Ito's formula,Ekeland's variational principle and a number of inequalities.

  18. Stochastic analysis for Poisson point processes Malliavin calculus, Wiener-Itô chaos expansions and stochastic geometry

    CERN Document Server

    Peccati, Giovanni

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic geometry is the branch of mathematics that studies geometric structures associated with random configurations, such as random graphs, tilings and mosaics. Due to its close ties with stereology and spatial statistics, the results in this area are relevant for a large number of important applications, e.g. to the mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of telecommunication networks, geostatistics and image analysis. In recent years – due mainly to the impetus of the authors and their collaborators – a powerful connection has been established between stochastic geometry and the Malliavin calculus of variations, which is a collection of probabilistic techniques based on the properties of infinite-dimensional differential operators. This has led in particular to the discovery of a large number of new quantitative limit theorems for high-dimensional geometric objects. This unique book presents an organic collection of authoritative surveys written by the principal actors in this rapidly evolvi...

  19. Quantum learning of classical stochastic processes: The completely positive realization problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monràs, Alex [Física Teòrica: Informació i Fenòmens Quàntics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore, 3 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117543 (Singapore); Winter, Andreas [Física Teòrica: Informació i Fenòmens Quàntics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore, 3 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117543 (Singapore); ICREA—Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Pg. Lluis Companys, 23, 08010 Barcelona (Spain)

    2016-01-15

    Among several tasks in Machine Learning, a specially important one is the problem of inferring the latent variables of a system and their causal relations with the observed behavior. A paradigmatic instance of this is the task of inferring the hidden Markov model underlying a given stochastic process. This is known as the positive realization problem (PRP), [L. Benvenuti and L. Farina, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 49(5), 651–664 (2004)] and constitutes a central problem in machine learning. The PRP and its solutions have far-reaching consequences in many areas of systems and control theory, and is nowadays an important piece in the broad field of positive systems theory. We consider the scenario where the latent variables are quantum (i.e., quantum states of a finite-dimensional system) and the system dynamics is constrained only by physical transformations on the quantum system. The observable dynamics is then described by a quantum instrument, and the task is to determine which quantum instrument — if any — yields the process at hand by iterative application. We take as a starting point the theory of quasi-realizations, whence a description of the dynamics of the process is given in terms of linear maps on state vectors and probabilities are given by linear functionals on the state vectors. This description, despite its remarkable resemblance with the hidden Markov model, or the iterated quantum instrument, is however devoid of any stochastic or quantum mechanical interpretation, as said maps fail to satisfy any positivity conditions. The completely positive realization problem then consists in determining whether an equivalent quantum mechanical description of the same process exists. We generalize some key results of stochastic realization theory, and show that the problem has deep connections with operator systems theory, giving possible insight to the lifting problem in quotient operator systems. Our results have potential applications in quantum machine

  20. A Gillespie algorithm for non-Markovian stochastic processes: Laplace transform approach

    CERN Document Server

    Masuda, Naoki

    2016-01-01

    The Gillespie algorithm provides statistically exact methods to simulate stochastic dynamics modelled as interacting sequences of discrete events including systems of biochemical reactions or earthquakes, networks of queuing processes or spiking neurons, and epidemic and opinion formation processes on social networks. Empirically, inter-event times of various human activities, in particular human communication, and some natural phenomena are often distributed according to long-tailed distributions. The Gillespie algorithm and its extant variants either assume the Poisson process, which produces exponentially distributed inter-event times, not long-tailed distributions, assume particular functional forms for time courses of the event rate, or works for non-Poissonian renewal processes including the case of long-tailed distributions of inter-event times but at a high computational cost. In the present study, we propose an innovative Gillespie algorithm for renewal processes on the basis of the Laplace transform...

  1. Analysis, Synthesis, and Estimation of Fractal-Rate Stochastic Point Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Thurner, S; Feurstein, M C; Heneghan, C; Feichtinger, H G; Teich, M C; Thurner, Stefan; Lowen, Steven B.; Feurstein, Markus C.; Heneghan, Conor; Feichtinger, Hans G.; Teich, Malvin C.

    1997-01-01

    Fractal and fractal-rate stochastic point processes (FSPPs and FRSPPs) provide useful models for describing a broad range of diverse phenomena, including electron transport in amorphous semiconductors, computer-network traffic, and sequences of neuronal action potentials. A particularly useful statistic of these processes is the fractal exponent $\\alpha$, which may be estimated for any FSPP or FRSPP by using a variety of statistical methods. Simulated FSPPs and FRSPPs consistently exhibit bias in this fractal exponent, however, rendering the study and analysis of these processes non-trivial. In this paper, we examine the synthesis and estimation of FRSPPs by carrying out a systematic series of simulations for several different types of FRSPP over a range of design values for $\\alpha$. The discrepancy between the desired and achieved values of $\\alpha$ is shown to arise from finite data size and from the character of the point-process generation mechanism. In the context of point-process simulation, reduction ...

  2. The stochastic runoff-runon process: Extending its analysis to a finite hillslope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, O. D.; Lane, P. N. J.; Sheridan, G. J.

    2016-10-01

    The stochastic runoff-runon process models the volume of infiltration excess runoff from a hillslope via the overland flow path. Spatial variability is represented in the model by the spatial distribution of rainfall and infiltration, and their "correlation scale", that is, the scale at which the spatial correlation of rainfall and infiltration become negligible. Notably, the process can produce runoff even when the mean rainfall rate is less than the mean infiltration rate, and it displays a gradual increase in net runoff as the rainfall rate increases. In this paper we present a number of contributions to the analysis of the stochastic runoff-runon process. Firstly we illustrate the suitability of the process by fitting it to experimental data. Next we extend previous asymptotic analyses to include the cases where the mean rainfall rate equals or exceeds the mean infiltration rate, and then use Monte Carlo simulation to explore the range of parameters for which the asymptotic limit gives a good approximation on finite hillslopes. Finally we use this to obtain an equation for the mean net runoff, consistent with our asymptotic results but providing an excellent approximation for finite hillslopes. Our function uses a single parameter to capture spatial variability, and varying this parameter gives us a family of curves which interpolate between known upper and lower bounds for the mean net runoff.

  3. Asymptotic Behaviour and Extinction of Delay Lotka-Volterra Model with Jump-Diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the effect of jump-diffusion random environmental perturbations on the asymptotic behaviour and extinction of Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with delays. The contributions of this paper lie in the following: (a to consider delay stochastic differential equation with jumps, we introduce a proper initial data space, in which the initial data may be discontinuous function with downward jumps; (b we show that the delay stochastic differential equation with jumps associated with our model has a unique global positive solution and give sufficient conditions that ensure stochastically ultimate boundedness, moment average boundedness in time, and asymptotic polynomial growth of our model; (c the sufficient conditions for the extinction of the system are obtained, which generalized the former results and showed that the sufficiently large random jump magnitudes and intensity (average rate of jump events arrival may lead to extinction of the population.

  4. The full penetration hole as a stochastic process: controlling penetration depth in keyhole laser-welding processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blug, A.; Abt, F.; Nicolosi, L.; Heider, A.; Weber, R.; Carl, D.; Höfler, H.; Tetzlaff, R.

    2012-07-01

    Although laser-welding processes are frequently used in industrial production the quality control of these processes is not satisfactory yet. Until recently, the "full penetration hole" was presumed as an image feature which appears when the keyhole opens at the bottom of the work piece. Therefore it was used as an indicator for full penetration only. We used a novel camera based on "cellular neural networks" which enables measurements at frame rates up to 14 kHz. The results show that the occurrence of the full penetration hole can be described as a stochastic process. The probability to observe it increases near the full penetration state. In overlap joints, a very similar image feature appears when the penetration depth reaches the gap between the sheets. This stochastic process is exploited by a closed-loop system which controls penetration depth near the bottom of the work piece ("full penetration") or near the gap in overlap joints ("partial penetration"). It guides the welding process at the minimum laser power necessary for the required penetration depth. As a result, defects like spatters are reduced considerably and the penetration depth becomes independent of process drifts such as feeding rate or pollution on protection glasses.

  5. The ‘hit’ phenomenon: a mathematical model of human dynamics interactions as a stochastic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Akira; Arakaki, Hisashi; Matsuda, Naoya; Umemura, Sanae; Urushidani, Tamiko; Yamagata, Naoya; Yoshida, Narihiko

    2012-06-01

    A mathematical model for the ‘hit’ phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of human dynamics interactions. The model uses only the advertisement budget time distribution as an input, and word-of-mouth (WOM), represented by posts on social network systems, is used as data to make a comparison with the calculated results. The unit of time is days. The WOM distribution in time is found to be very close to the revenue distribution in time. Calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on the mathematical model agree well with the actual revenue distribution in time.

  6. Susceptibility of optimal train schedules to stochastic disturbances of process times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rune; Pranzo, Marco; D’Ariano, Andrea;

    2013-01-01

    This work focuses on the stochastic evaluation of train schedules computed by a microscopic scheduler of railway operations based on deterministic information. The research question is to assess the degree of sensitivity of various rescheduling algorithms to variations in process times (running...... and dwell times). In fact, the objective of railway traffic management is to reduce delay propagation and to increase disturbance robustness of train schedules at a network scale. We present a quantitative study of traffic disturbances and their effects on the schedules computed by simple and advanced...

  7. Stochastic Processes and Queueing Theory used in Cloud Computer Performance Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin-Catalin ENACHE

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The growing character of the cloud business has manifested exponentially in the last 5 years. The capacity managers need to concentrate on a practical way to simulate the random demands a cloud infrastructure could face, even if there are not too many mathematical tools to simulate such demands.This paper presents an introduction into the most important stochastic processes and queueing theory concepts used for modeling computer performance. Moreover, it shows the cases where such concepts are applicable and when not, using clear programming examples on how to simulate a queue, and how to use and validate a simulation, when there are no mathematical concepts to back it up.

  8. Parameter estimation for stochastic diffusion process with drift proportional to Weibull density function

    OpenAIRE

    Hammou Elotmany; M'Hamed Eddahbi

    2015-01-01

    Hammou El-otmany, M'hamed Eddahbi Facult{\\'e} des Sciences et Techniques Marrakech-Maroc Laboratoire de m{\\'e}thodes stochastiques appliqu{\\'e}e a la finance et actuariat (LaMsaFA) Abstract. In the present paper we propose a new stochastic diffusion process with drift proportional to the Weibull density function defined as X $\\epsilon$ = x, dX t = $\\gamma$ t (1 -- t $\\gamma$+1) -- t $\\gamma$ X t dt + $\\sigma$X t dB t , t \\textgreater{} 0, with parameters $\\gamma$ \\textgreater{} 0 and $\\sigma$...

  9. Mathematical model for hit phenomena as stochastic process of interactions of human interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Ishii, Akira; Matsuda, Naoya; Umemura, Sanae; Urushidani, Tamiko; Yamagata, Naoya; Yoshda, Narihiko

    2011-01-01

    Mathematical model for hit phenomena in entertainments in the society is presented as stochastic process of interactions of human dynamics. The model use only the time distribution of advertisement budget as input and the words of mouth (WOM) as posting in the social network system is used as the data to compare with the calculated results. The unit of time is daily. The WOM distribution in time is found to be very close to the residue distribution in time. The calculations for Japanese motion picture market due to the mathematical model agree very well with the actual residue distribution in time.

  10. Poisson Stochastic Process and Basic Schauder and Sobolev Estimates in the Theory of Parabolic Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krylov, N. V.; Priola, E.

    2017-09-01

    We show, among other things, how knowing Schauder or Sobolev-space estimates for the one-dimensional heat equation allows one to derive their multidimensional analogs for equations with coefficients depending only on the time variable with the same constants as in the case of the one-dimensional heat equation. The method is quite general and is based on using the Poisson stochastic process. It also applies to equations involving non-local operators. It looks like no other methods are available at this time and it is a very challenging problem to find a purely analytical approach to proving such results.

  11. Risk, Jumps, and Diversification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Law, Tzuo Hann; Tauchen, George

    We test for price discontinuities, or jumps, in a panel of high-frequency intraday returns for forty large-cap stocks and an equiweighted index from these same stocks. Jumps are naturally classified into two types: common and idiosyncratic. Common jumps affect all stocks, albeit to varying degree...

  12. Jumping in Arithmetic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Albert

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we study a new relation between sentences: the jump relation. The idea of the jump relation is based on an analysis of Feferman's Theorem that the inconsistency of a theory U is interpretable over U. The jump relation is based on a converse of Feferman's Theorem: if a sentence is inter

  13. StochPy: a comprehensive, user-friendly tool for simulating stochastic biological processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo R Maarleveld

    Full Text Available Single-cell and single-molecule measurements indicate the importance of stochastic phenomena in cell biology. Stochasticity creates spontaneous differences in the copy numbers of key macromolecules and the timing of reaction events between genetically-identical cells. Mathematical models are indispensable for the study of phenotypic stochasticity in cellular decision-making and cell survival. There is a demand for versatile, stochastic modeling environments with extensive, preprogrammed statistics functions and plotting capabilities that hide the mathematics from the novice users and offers low-level programming access to the experienced user. Here we present StochPy (Stochastic modeling in Python, which is a flexible software tool for stochastic simulation in cell biology. It provides various stochastic simulation algorithms, SBML support, analyses of the probability distributions of molecule copy numbers and event waiting times, analyses of stochastic time series, and a range of additional statistical functions and plotting facilities for stochastic simulations. We illustrate the functionality of StochPy with stochastic models of gene expression, cell division, and single-molecule enzyme kinetics. StochPy has been successfully tested against the SBML stochastic test suite, passing all tests. StochPy is a comprehensive software package for stochastic simulation of the molecular control networks of living cells. It allows novice and experienced users to study stochastic phenomena in cell biology. The integration with other Python software makes StochPy both a user-friendly and easily extendible simulation tool.

  14. URDME: a modular framework for stochastic simulation of reaction-transport processes in complex geometries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drawert Brian

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Experiments in silico using stochastic reaction-diffusion models have emerged as an important tool in molecular systems biology. Designing computational software for such applications poses several challenges. Firstly, realistic lattice-based modeling for biological applications requires a consistent way of handling complex geometries, including curved inner- and outer boundaries. Secondly, spatiotemporal stochastic simulations are computationally expensive due to the fast time scales of individual reaction- and diffusion events when compared to the biological phenomena of actual interest. We therefore argue that simulation software needs to be both computationally efficient, employing sophisticated algorithms, yet in the same time flexible in order to meet present and future needs of increasingly complex biological modeling. Results We have developed URDME, a flexible software framework for general stochastic reaction-transport modeling and simulation. URDME uses Unstructured triangular and tetrahedral meshes to resolve general geometries, and relies on the Reaction-Diffusion Master Equation formalism to model the processes under study. An interface to a mature geometry and mesh handling external software (Comsol Multiphysics provides for a stable and interactive environment for model construction. The core simulation routines are logically separated from the model building interface and written in a low-level language for computational efficiency. The connection to the geometry handling software is realized via a Matlab interface which facilitates script computing, data management, and post-processing. For practitioners, the software therefore behaves much as an interactive Matlab toolbox. At the same time, it is possible to modify and extend URDME with newly developed simulation routines. Since the overall design effectively hides the complexity of managing the geometry and meshes, this means that newly developed methods

  15. Laminar circular hydraulic jumps without separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgupta, Ratul; Tomar, Gaurav; Govindarajan, Rama

    2009-11-01

    The traditional inviscid criterion for the occurrence of a planar, standing hydraulic jump is to have the Froude number decrease downstream and go through a value of 1 at some location. Here, upstream propagating, small-amplitude, long, non-dispersive gravity waves are trapped, and non-linear steepening is said to result in a near-discontinuous height profile, but it is not clear how. Such a condition on the Froude number is shown in the present axisymmetric Navier-Stokes computations to hold for a circular jump as well. The relevance of non-linear steepening to a circular jump is therefore a question we wish to answer. In circular jumps, moreover, a region of recirculation is usually observed underneath the jump, underlining the importance of viscosity in this process. This led Tani (J. Phys. Soc. Japan, 1949) to hypothesise that boundary-layer separation was the cause of the circular jump. This hypothesis has been debated extensively and the possibility of circular jumps without separation hinted at. In our simulations, we are able to obtain circular hydraulic jumps without any flow separation. This, and the necessity or otherwise of viscosity in jump formation will be discussed.

  16. Jump Detection in the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben

    2002-01-01

    It is well known in financial economics that stock market return data are often modelled by a diffusion process with some regular drift function. Occasionally, however, sudden changes or jumps occur in the return data. Wavelet scaling methods are used to detect jumps and cusps in stock market...

  17. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  18. Analysis and Prediction on Vehicle Ownership Based on an Improved Stochastic Gompertz Diffusion Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huapu Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at introducing a new improved stochastic differential equation related to Gompertz curve for the projection of vehicle ownership growth. This diffusion model explains the relationship between vehicle ownership and GDP per capita, which has been studied as a Gompertz-like function before. The main innovations of the process lie in two parts: by modifying the deterministic part of the original Gompertz equation, the model can present the remaining slow increase when the S-shaped curve has reached its saturation level; by introducing the stochastic differential equation, the model can better fit the real data when there are fluctuations. Such comparisons are carried out based on data from US, UK, Japan, and Korea with a time span of 1960–2008. It turns out that the new process behaves better in fitting curves and predicting short term growth. Finally, a prediction of Chinese vehicle ownership up to 2025 is presented with the new model, as China is on the initial stage of motorization with much fluctuations in growth.

  19. Accelerated simulation of stochastic particle removal processes in particle-resolved aerosol models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, J. H.; Michelotti, M. D.; Riemer, N.; Heath, M. T.; West, M.

    2016-10-01

    Stochastic particle-resolved methods have proven useful for simulating multi-dimensional systems such as composition-resolved aerosol size distributions. While particle-resolved methods have substantial benefits for highly detailed simulations, these techniques suffer from high computational cost, motivating efforts to improve their algorithmic efficiency. Here we formulate an algorithm for accelerating particle removal processes by aggregating particles of similar size into bins. We present the Binned Algorithm for particle removal processes and analyze its performance with application to the atmospherically relevant process of aerosol dry deposition. We show that the Binned Algorithm can dramatically improve the efficiency of particle removals, particularly for low removal rates, and that computational cost is reduced without introducing additional error. In simulations of aerosol particle removal by dry deposition in atmospherically relevant conditions, we demonstrate about 50-times increase in algorithm efficiency.

  20. Accelerated simulation of stochastic particle removal processes in particle-resolved aerosol models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, J.H. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 105 S. Gregory St., Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Michelotti, M.D. [Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 201 North Goodwin Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Riemer, N. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 105 S. Gregory St., Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Heath, M.T. [Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 201 North Goodwin Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); West, M., E-mail: mwest@illinois.edu [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 1206 W. Green St., Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Stochastic particle-resolved methods have proven useful for simulating multi-dimensional systems such as composition-resolved aerosol size distributions. While particle-resolved methods have substantial benefits for highly detailed simulations, these techniques suffer from high computational cost, motivating efforts to improve their algorithmic efficiency. Here we formulate an algorithm for accelerating particle removal processes by aggregating particles of similar size into bins. We present the Binned Algorithm for particle removal processes and analyze its performance with application to the atmospherically relevant process of aerosol dry deposition. We show that the Binned Algorithm can dramatically improve the efficiency of particle removals, particularly for low removal rates, and that computational cost is reduced without introducing additional error. In simulations of aerosol particle removal by dry deposition in atmospherically relevant conditions, we demonstrate about 50-times increase in algorithm efficiency.

  1. Stochastic transients as a source of quasi-periodic processes in the solar atmosphere

    CERN Document Server

    Yuan, Ding; Jiao, Fangran; Walsh, Robert W

    2016-01-01

    Solar dynamics and turbulence occur at all heights of the solar atmosphere and could be described as stochastic processes. We propose that finite lifetime transients recurring at a certain place could trigger quasi-periodic processes in the associated structures. In this study, we developed a mathematical model for finite lifetime and randomly occurring transients, and found that quasi-periodic processes, with period longer than the time scale of the transients, are detectable intrinsically in form of trains. We simulate their propagation in an empirical solar atmospheric model with chromosphere, transition region and corona. We found that, due to the filtering effect of the chromospheric cavity, only the resonance period of the acoustic resonator is able to propagate to the upper atmosphere, such a scenario is applicable to slow magnetoacoustic waves in sunspots and active regions. If the thermal structure of the atmosphere is less wild and acoustic resonance does not take effect, the long period oscillation...

  2. Nonparametric Inference of Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process Data via the Kernel Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tingting; Kou, S C

    2010-01-01

    Doubly stochastic Poisson processes, also known as the Cox processes, frequently occur in various scientific fields. In this article, motivated primarily by analyzing Cox process data in biophysics, we propose a nonparametric kernel-based inference method. We conduct a detailed study, including an asymptotic analysis, of the proposed method, and provide guidelines for its practical use, introducing a fast and stable regression method for bandwidth selection. We apply our method to real photon arrival data from recent single-molecule biophysical experiments, investigating proteins' conformational dynamics. Our result shows that conformational fluctuation is widely present in protein systems, and that the fluctuation covers a broad range of time scales, highlighting the dynamic and complex nature of proteins' structure.

  3. A unified formulation of Gaussian vs. sparse stochastic processes - Part II: Discrete-domain theory

    CERN Document Server

    Unser, Michael; Amini, Arash; Kirshner, Hagai

    2011-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the characterization of an extended family of CARMA (continuous-time autoregressive moving average) processes that are solutions of stochastic differential equations driven by white Levy noise. These are completely specified by: (1) a set of poles and zeros that fixes their correlation structure, and (2) a canonical infinitely-divisible probability distribution that controls their degree of sparsity (with the Gaussian model corresponding to the least sparse scenario). The generalized CARMA processes are either stationary or non-stationary, depending on the location of the poles in the complex plane. The most basic non-stationary representatives (with a single pole at the origin) are the Levy processes, which are the non-Gaussian counterparts of Brownian motion. We focus on the general analog-to-discrete conversion problem and introduce a novel spline-based formalism that greatly simplifies the derivation of the correlation properties and joint probability distributions of the discrete...

  4. Jumping Nanodroplets

    OpenAIRE

    Habenicht, Anja; Olapinski, Michael; Burmeister, Frank; Leiderer, Paul; Boneberg, Johannes

    2005-01-01

    Flat gold nanostructures on inert substrates like glass or graphite were illuminated by single intensive laser pulses with fluences above the gold melting threshold. The liquid structures produced in this way are far from their equilibrium shape, and a dewetting process sets in. On a time scale of a few nanoseconds, the liquid contracted toward a sphere. During this contraction, the center of mass moved upward, which could lead to detachment of droplets from the surface due to inertia. The re...

  5. Stochastic volatility of the futures prices of emission allowances: A Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the stochastic nature of the spot volatility of emission allowances is crucial for risk management in emissions markets. In this study, by adopting a stochastic volatility model with or without jumps to represent the dynamics of European Union Allowances (EUA) futures prices, we estimate the daily volatilities and model parameters by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for stochastic volatility (SV), stochastic volatility with return jumps (SVJ) and stochastic volatility with correlated jumps (SVCJ) models. Our empirical results reveal three important features of emissions markets. First, the data presented herein suggest that EUA futures prices exhibit significant stochastic volatility. Second, the leverage effect is noticeable regardless of whether or not jumps are included. Third, the inclusion of jumps has a significant impact on the estimation of the volatility dynamics. Finally, the market becomes very volatile and large jumps occur at the beginning of a new phase. These findings are important for policy makers and regulators.

  6. Jumping nanodroplets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habenicht, A; Olapinski, M; Burmeister, F; Leiderer, P; Boneberg, J

    2005-09-23

    Flat gold nanostructures on inert substrates like glass or graphite were illuminated by single intensive laser pulses with fluences above the gold melting threshold. The liquid structures produced in this way are far from their equilibrium shape, and a dewetting process sets in. On a time scale of a few nanoseconds, the liquid contracted toward a sphere. During this contraction, the center of mass moved upward, which could lead to detachment of droplets from the surface due to inertia. The resulting velocities were on the order of 10 meters per second for droplets with radii in the range of 100 nanometers.

  7. Stochastic Liouville equation for particles driven by dichotomous environmental noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    We analyze the stochastic dynamics of a large population of noninteracting particles driven by a global environmental input in the form of a dichotomous Markov noise process (DMNP). The population density of particle states evolves according to a stochastic Liouville equation with respect to different realizations of the DMNP. We then exploit the connection with previous work on diffusion in randomly switching environments, in order to derive moment equations for the distribution of solutions to the stochastic Liouville equation. We illustrate the theory by considering two simple examples of dichotomous flows, a velocity jump process and a two-state gene regulatory network. In both cases we show how the global environmental input induces statistical correlations between different realizations of the population density.

  8. Uniform Labeled Transition Systems for Nondeterministic, Probabilistic, and Stochastic Process Calculi

    CERN Document Server

    Bernardo, Marco; Loreti, Michele; 10.4204/EPTCS.60.5

    2011-01-01

    Labeled transition systems are typically used to represent the behavior of nondeterministic processes, with labeled transitions defining a one-step state to-state reachability relation. This model has been recently made more general by modifying the transition relation in such a way that it associates with any source state and transition label a reachability distribution, i.e., a function mapping each possible target state to a value of some domain that expresses the degree of one-step reachability of that target state. In this extended abstract, we show how the resulting model, called ULTraS from Uniform Labeled Transition System, can be naturally used to give semantics to a fully nondeterministic, a fully probabilistic, and a fully stochastic variant of a CSP-like process language.

  9. How baryonic feedback processes can affect dark matter halos: a stochastic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freundlich, J.; El-Zant, A.; Combes, F.

    2016-12-01

    Feedback processes from stars and active galactic nuclei result in gas density fluctuations which can contribute to `heating' dark matter haloes, decrease their density at the center and hence form more realistic `cores' than the steep `cusps' predicted by cold dark matter (CDM) simulations. We present a theoretical model deriving this effect from first principles: stochastic density variations in the gas distribution perturb the gravitational potential and hence affect the halo particles. We analytically derive the velocity dispersion imparted to the CDM particles and the corresponding relaxation time, and further perform numerical simulations to show that the assumed process can indeed lead to the formation of a core in an initially cuspy halo within a timescale comparable to the derived relaxation time. This suggests that feedback-induced cusp-core transformations observed in hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy formation may be understood and parametrized in relatively simple terms.

  10. Employment of the covariance matrix in parameter estimation for stochastic processes in cell biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preuss, R.; Dieterich, P.

    2013-08-01

    The dynamics of movements of biological cells can be described with models from correlated stochastic processes. In order to overcome problems from correlated and insufficient data in the determination of the model parameters of such processes we employ the covariance matrix of the data. Since the covariance suffers itself from statistical uncertainty it is corrected by a renormalization treatment [1]. For the example of normal and fractional Brownian motion, which allows both to access all quantities on full theoretical grounds and to generate data similar to experiment, we discuss our results and those of previous works by Gregory [2] and Sivia [3]. The presented approach has the potential to estimate the aging correlation function of observed cell paths and can be applied to more complicated models.

  11. Experimentally modeling stochastic processes with less memory by the use of a quantum processor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palsson, Matthew S; Gu, Mile; Ho, Joseph; Wiseman, Howard M; Pryde, Geoff J

    2017-02-01

    Computer simulation of observable phenomena is an indispensable tool for engineering new technology, understanding the natural world, and studying human society. However, the most interesting systems are often so complex that simulating their future behavior demands storing immense amounts of information regarding how they have behaved in the past. For increasingly complex systems, simulation becomes increasingly difficult and is ultimately constrained by resources such as computer memory. Recent theoretical work shows that quantum theory can reduce this memory requirement beyond ultimate classical limits, as measured by a process' statistical complexity, C. We experimentally demonstrate this quantum advantage in simulating stochastic processes. Our quantum implementation observes a memory requirement of Cq = 0.05 ± 0.01, far below the ultimate classical limit of C = 1. Scaling up this technique would substantially reduce the memory required in simulations of more complex systems.

  12. Recovering a stochastic process from super-resolution noisy ensembles of single-particle trajectories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoze, N; Holcman, D

    2015-11-01

    Recovering a stochastic process from noisy ensembles of single-particle trajectories is resolved here using the coarse-grained Langevin equation as a model. The massive redundancy contained in single-particle tracking data allows recovering local parameters of the underlying physical model. We use several parametric and nonparametric estimators to compute the first and second moments of the process, to recover the local drift, its derivative, and the diffusion tensor, and to deconvolve the instrumental from the physical noise. We use numerical simulations to also explore the range of validity for these estimators. The present analysis allows defining what can exactly be recovered from statistics of super-resolution microscopy trajectories used for characterizing molecular trafficking underlying cellular functions.

  13. Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, William H

    2017-10-01

    Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

  14. Constraints on Stochastic Electron Acceleration Process from RHESSI Solar Flare Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Q.; Petrosian, V.

    2011-12-01

    Bremsstrahlung hard X-ray (HXR) emission provides the most direct information for diagnosing the electron acceleration and transport processes in solar flares. HXR observations have indicated that the majority of nonthermal electrons are accelerated near the top of the flaring loop, as evidenced by the distinct coronal loop top (LT) source, and move downward along the loop to the footpoints (FPs). This can be naturally accounted for by the model of stochastic acceleration, in which electrons are scattered and accelerated near the LT region by plasma waves or turbulence. In this work, we aim to better understand the role of turbulence in scattering and accelerating electrons in solar flares based on imaging spectroscopic observations from the RHESSI satellite and theoretical modeling of the process of stochastic acceleration by turbulence. We show how the RHESSI observations can constrain some important characteristics of turbulence. In particular, we obtain the accelerated electron spectra from the LT source in the regularized electron maps, which is determined by the turbulence acceleration rate, and also obtain the escape time from the LT and FP spectral difference, which is related to the pitch angle scattering rate of electrons by turbulence. Furthermore, comparison of the electron spectra obtained from solution of the Fokker-Planck equation describing the acceleration process with the directly observed LT electron spectra in principle allows us to determine whether the required acceleration rate by turbulence is consistent with the scattering rate. We will present results from several RHESSI flares with different LT spectral hardness relative to the FPs and discuss the physical implication for the electron acceleration and transport processes.

  15. Option Valuation with Observable Volatility and Jump Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Feunou, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

    Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity dy...

  16. Volume growth and stochastic completeness of graphs

    CERN Document Server

    Folz, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Given the variable-speed random walk on a weighted graph and a metric adapted to the structure of the random walk, we construct a Brownian motion on a closely related metric graph which behaves similarly to the VSRW and for which the associated intrinsic metric has certain desirable properties. Jump probabilities and moments of jump times for Brownian motion on metric graphs with varying edge lengths, jump conductances, and edge densities are computed. We use these results together with a theorem of Sturm for stochastic completeness, or non-explosiveness, on local Dirichlet spaces to prove sharp volume growth criteria in adapted metrics for stochastic completeness of graphs.

  17. Study on impurity desorption induced by femtosecond pulse laser based on a stochastic process model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    With the advantages on non-equilibrium heating and desorption induced by electronic transition, the femtosecond pulse laser introduces a new way for solving the problem of impurity pollution adsorbed on a solid thin film in micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS). A model based on stochastic processes was established for stimulated desorption induced by the femtosecond pulse laser to interpret the interaction of the optically excited hot electrons with the adsorbed molecules in a metal substrate. Numerical simulation results reveal a time-dependent desorption probability of adsorbed molecules and indicate that how key parameters of femtosecond pulse laser, such as incident laser energy flux, pulse duration, and wavelength of pulse, have a great effect on the desorption probability.

  18. Conformal invariance and stochastic Loewner evolution processes in two-dimensional Ising spin glasses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoruso, C; Hartmann, A K; Hastings, M B; Moore, M A

    2006-12-31

    We present numerical evidence that the techniques of conformal field theory might be applicable to two-dimensional Ising spin glasses with Gaussian bond distributions. It is shown that certain domain wall distributions in one geometry can be related to that in a second geometry by a conformal transformation. We also present direct evidence that the domain walls are stochastic Loewner (SLE) processes with kappa approximately 2.1. An argument is given that their fractal dimension d(f) is related to their interface energy exponent theta by d(f) - 1 = 3/[4(3 + theta)], which is consistent with the commonly quoted values d(f) approximately 1.27 and theta approximately -0.28.

  19. Experimentally modeling stochastic processes with less memory by the use of a quantum processor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palsson, Matthew S.; Gu, Mile; Ho, Joseph; Wiseman, Howard M.; Pryde, Geoff J.

    2017-01-01

    Computer simulation of observable phenomena is an indispensable tool for engineering new technology, understanding the natural world, and studying human society. However, the most interesting systems are often so complex that simulating their future behavior demands storing immense amounts of information regarding how they have behaved in the past. For increasingly complex systems, simulation becomes increasingly difficult and is ultimately constrained by resources such as computer memory. Recent theoretical work shows that quantum theory can reduce this memory requirement beyond ultimate classical limits, as measured by a process’ statistical complexity, C. We experimentally demonstrate this quantum advantage in simulating stochastic processes. Our quantum implementation observes a memory requirement of Cq = 0.05 ± 0.01, far below the ultimate classical limit of C = 1. Scaling up this technique would substantially reduce the memory required in simulations of more complex systems. PMID:28168218

  20. Stochastic dynamical model of a growing network based on self-exciting point process

    CERN Document Server

    Golosovsky, Michael; 10.1103/PhysRevLett.109.098701

    2012-01-01

    We perform experimental verification of the preferential attachment model that is commonly accepted as a generating mechanism of the scale-free complex networks. To this end we chose citation network of Physics papers and traced citation history of 40,195 papers published in one year. Contrary to common belief, we found that citation dynamics of the individual papers follows the \\emph{superlinear} preferential attachment, with the exponent $\\alpha= 1.25-1.3$. Moreover, we showed that the citation process cannot be described as a memoryless Markov chain since there is substantial correlation between the present and recent citation rates of a paper. Basing on our findings we constructed a stochastic growth model of the citation network, performed numerical simulations based on this model and achieved an excellent agreement with the measured citation distributions.

  1. Second quantization approaches for stochastic age-structured birth-death processes

    CERN Document Server

    Greenman, Chris D

    2015-01-01

    We develop a fully stochastic theory for age-structured populations via Doi-Peliti quantum field theoretical methods. The operator formalism of Doi is first developed, whereby birth and death events are represented by creation and annihilation operators, and the complete probabilistic representation of the age-chart of a population is represented by states in a suitable Hilbert space. We then use this formalism to rederive several results in companion paper [6], including an equation describing the moments of the age-distribution, and the distribution of the population size. The functional representation of coherent states used by Peliti to analyze discrete Fock space is then adapted to incorporate the continuous age parameters, and a path integral formulation constructed. We apply these formalisms to a range of birth-death processes and show that although many of the results from Doi-Peliti formalism can be derived in a purely probabilistic way, the efficient formalism offered by second quantization methods ...

  2. Steerable Miniature Jumping Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Kovac, Mirko; Schlegel, Manuel; Zufferey, Jean-Christophe; Floreano, Dario

    2010-01-01

    Jumping is used in nature by many small animals to locomote in cluttered environments or in rough terrain. It offers small systems the benefit of overcoming relatively large obstacles at a low energetic cost. In order to be able to perform repetitive jumps in a given direction, it is important to be able to upright after landing, steer and jump again. In this article, we review and evaluate the uprighting and steering principles of existing jumping robots and present a novel spherical robot w...

  3. Feynman-Kac formula for stochastic hybrid systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    We derive a Feynman-Kac formula for functionals of a stochastic hybrid system evolving according to a piecewise deterministic Markov process. We first derive a stochastic Liouville equation for the moment generator of the stochastic functional, given a particular realization of the underlying discrete Markov process; the latter generates transitions between different dynamical equations for the continuous process. We then analyze the stochastic Liouville equation using methods recently developed for diffusion processes in randomly switching environments. In particular, we obtain dynamical equations for the moment generating function, averaged with respect to realizations of the discrete Markov process. The resulting Feynman-Kac formula takes the form of a differential Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. We illustrate the theory by calculating the occupation time for a one-dimensional velocity jump process on the infinite or semi-infinite real line. Finally, we present an alternative derivation of the Feynman-Kac formula based on a recent path-integral formulation of stochastic hybrid systems.

  4. Feynman-Kac formula for stochastic hybrid systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressloff, Paul C

    2017-01-01

    We derive a Feynman-Kac formula for functionals of a stochastic hybrid system evolving according to a piecewise deterministic Markov process. We first derive a stochastic Liouville equation for the moment generator of the stochastic functional, given a particular realization of the underlying discrete Markov process; the latter generates transitions between different dynamical equations for the continuous process. We then analyze the stochastic Liouville equation using methods recently developed for diffusion processes in randomly switching environments. In particular, we obtain dynamical equations for the moment generating function, averaged with respect to realizations of the discrete Markov process. The resulting Feynman-Kac formula takes the form of a differential Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. We illustrate the theory by calculating the occupation time for a one-dimensional velocity jump process on the infinite or semi-infinite real line. Finally, we present an alternative derivation of the Feynman-Kac formula based on a recent path-integral formulation of stochastic hybrid systems.

  5. Comparative analysis of cogeneration power plants optimization based on stochastic method using superstructure and process simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Leonardo Rodrigues de [Instituto Federal do Espirito Santo, Vitoria, ES (Brazil)], E-mail: leoaraujo@ifes.edu.br; Donatelli, Joao Luiz Marcon [Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo (UFES), Vitoria, ES (Brazil)], E-mail: joaoluiz@npd.ufes.br; Silva, Edmar Alino da Cruz [Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica (ITA/CTA), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil); Azevedo, Joao Luiz F. [Instituto de Aeronautica e Espaco (CTA/IAE/ALA), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    Thermal systems are essential in facilities such as thermoelectric plants, cogeneration plants, refrigeration systems and air conditioning, among others, in which much of the energy consumed by humanity is processed. In a world with finite natural sources of fuels and growing energy demand, issues related with thermal system design, such as cost estimative, design complexity, environmental protection and optimization are becoming increasingly important. Therefore the need to understand the mechanisms that degrade energy, improve energy sources use, reduce environmental impacts and also reduce project, operation and maintenance costs. In recent years, a consistent development of procedures and techniques for computational design of thermal systems has occurred. In this context, the fundamental objective of this study is a performance comparative analysis of structural and parametric optimization of a cogeneration system using stochastic methods: genetic algorithm and simulated annealing. This research work uses a superstructure, modelled in a process simulator, IPSEpro of SimTech, in which the appropriate design case studied options are included. Accordingly, the cogeneration system optimal configuration is determined as a consequence of the optimization process, restricted within the configuration options included in the superstructure. The optimization routines are written in MsExcel Visual Basic, in order to work perfectly coupled to the simulator process. At the end of the optimization process, the system optimal configuration, given the characteristics of each specific problem, should be defined. (author)

  6. Random Process Simulation for stochastic fatigue analysis. Ph.D. Thesis - Rice Univ., Houston, Tex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Curtis E.

    1988-01-01

    A simulation technique is described which directly synthesizes the extrema of a random process and is more efficient than the Gaussian simulation method. Such a technique is particularly useful in stochastic fatigue analysis because the required stress range moment E(R sup m), is a function only of the extrema of the random stress process. The family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models is reviewed and an autoregressive model is presented for modeling the extrema of any random process which has a unimodal power spectral density (psd). The proposed autoregressive technique is found to produce rainflow stress range moments which compare favorably with those computed by the Gaussian technique and to average 11.7 times faster than the Gaussian technique. The autoregressive technique is also adapted for processes having bimodal psd's. The adaptation involves using two autoregressive processes to simulate the extrema due to each mode and the superposition of these two extrema sequences. The proposed autoregressive superposition technique is 9 to 13 times faster than the Gaussian technique and produces comparable values for E(R sup m) for bimodal psd's having the frequency of one mode at least 2.5 times that of the other mode.

  7. Visibility graph analysis for re-sampled time series from auto-regressive stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong; Zou, Yong; Zhou, Jie; Gao, Zhong-Ke; Guan, Shuguang

    2017-01-01

    Visibility graph (VG) and horizontal visibility graph (HVG) play a crucial role in modern complex network approaches to nonlinear time series analysis. However, depending on the underlying dynamic processes, it remains to characterize the exponents of presumably exponential degree distributions. It has been recently conjectured that there is a critical value of exponent λc = ln 3 / 2 , which separates chaotic from correlated stochastic processes. Here, we systematically apply (H)VG analysis to time series from autoregressive (AR) models, which confirms the hypothesis that an increased correlation length results in larger values of λ > λc. On the other hand, we numerically find a regime of negatively correlated process increments where λ < λc, which is in contrast to this hypothesis. Furthermore, by constructing graphs based on re-sampled time series, we find that network measures show non-trivial dependencies on the autocorrelation functions of the processes. We propose to choose the decorrelation time as the maximal re-sampling delay for the algorithm. Our results are detailed for time series from AR(1) and AR(2) processes.

  8. Quantum stochastics

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Mou-Hsiung

    2015-01-01

    The classical probability theory initiated by Kolmogorov and its quantum counterpart, pioneered by von Neumann, were created at about the same time in the 1930s, but development of the quantum theory has trailed far behind. Although highly appealing, the quantum theory has a steep learning curve, requiring tools from both probability and analysis and a facility for combining the two viewpoints. This book is a systematic, self-contained account of the core of quantum probability and quantum stochastic processes for graduate students and researchers. The only assumed background is knowledge of the basic theory of Hilbert spaces, bounded linear operators, and classical Markov processes. From there, the book introduces additional tools from analysis, and then builds the quantum probability framework needed to support applications to quantum control and quantum information and communication. These include quantum noise, quantum stochastic calculus, stochastic quantum differential equations, quantum Markov semigrou...

  9. Stochastic integration in Banach spaces theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Mandrekar, Vidyadhar

    2015-01-01

    Considering Poisson random measures as the driving sources for stochastic (partial) differential equations allows us to incorporate jumps and to model sudden, unexpected phenomena. By using such equations the present book introduces a new method for modeling the states of complex systems perturbed by random sources over time, such as interest rates in financial markets or temperature distributions in a specific region. It studies properties of the solutions of the stochastic equations, observing the long-term behavior and the sensitivity of the solutions to changes in the initial data. The authors consider an integration theory of measurable and adapted processes in appropriate Banach spaces as well as the non-Gaussian case, whereas most of the literature only focuses on predictable settings in Hilbert spaces. The book is intended for graduate students and researchers in stochastic (partial) differential equations, mathematical finance and non-linear filtering and assumes a knowledge of the required integrati...

  10. Jump Diffusion Modelling for the Brazilian Short-Term Interest Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Carlos Nogueira Cavalcante Filho

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to capture the informational effect of the Brazilian short-term interest rate (SELIC rate by Poisson jumps, we build on the tests condu cted by Das (2002 and Johannes (2004, which show the significance of such structures for U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC announcements. As in the above researches, w e have found evidence that a relevant amount of the short-term volatility in the fixed in come market is captured by introducing jumps on the stochastic process of the short-term r ate. This structure also allows the verification of the information content of specific events, such as Brazilian monetary policy authority (COPOM meetings and public bond auctions.

  11. Modelling and performance analysis of clinical pathways using the stochastic process algebra PEPA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xian; Han, Rui; Guo, Yike; Bradley, Jeremy; Cox, Benita; Dickinson, Robert; Kitney, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Hospitals nowadays have to serve numerous patients with limited medical staff and equipment while maintaining healthcare quality. Clinical pathway informatics is regarded as an efficient way to solve a series of hospital challenges. To date, conventional research lacks a mathematical model to describe clinical pathways. Existing vague descriptions cannot fully capture the complexities accurately in clinical pathways and hinders the effective management and further optimization of clinical pathways. Given this motivation, this paper presents a clinical pathway management platform, the Imperial Clinical Pathway Analyzer (ICPA). By extending the stochastic model performance evaluation process algebra (PEPA), ICPA introduces a clinical-pathway-specific model: clinical pathway PEPA (CPP). ICPA can simulate stochastic behaviours of a clinical pathway by extracting information from public clinical databases and other related documents using CPP. Thus, the performance of this clinical pathway, including its throughput, resource utilisation and passage time can be quantitatively analysed. A typical clinical pathway on stroke extracted from a UK hospital is used to illustrate the effectiveness of ICPA. Three application scenarios are tested using ICPA: 1) redundant resources are identified and removed, thus the number of patients being served is maintained with less cost; 2) the patient passage time is estimated, providing the likelihood that patients can leave hospital within a specific period; 3) the maximum number of input patients are found, helping hospitals to decide whether they can serve more patients with the existing resource allocation. ICPA is an effective platform for clinical pathway management: 1) ICPA can describe a variety of components (state, activity, resource and constraints) in a clinical pathway, thus facilitating the proper understanding of complexities involved in it; 2) ICPA supports the performance analysis of clinical pathway, thereby assisting

  12. Pricing European options on agriculture commodity prices using mean-reversion model with jump diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmawan, Komang

    2017-03-01

    It has been claimed in many literatures that the prices of some agriculture commodities tend to follow mean reversion. However, when dealing with the prices of agriculture commodities, is mean-reversion realistic enough without incorporating seasonality and jump diffusion? This research tries to answer the question. The combination between mean-reversion feature, jump and seasonal components are applied to model the behavior of agriculture commodity prices. A jump and seasonal components are added to the standard mean-reverting process in order to reproduce the spiky or jump behaviors. This model has been well applied on simulating the electricity prices but it has not been applied to investigate the behavior of agriculture commodity prices yet. This paper discusses the performance of the model when it is used to price European call options. First, the deterministic seasonality part is calibrated using the least square method. The second stage is to calibrate the stochastic part based on historical prices. The parameters are calibrated by discretizing the model. Hence, the discretized model allows us to perform Monte Carlo simulation on the commodity price under real-word probability. The analysis is conducted using 2 future price of Crude Palm Oil and Coffee Bean on standard payoff functions, a Basket, a Spread, Best of Call, and Worst of Call Options.

  13. StochPy: A Comprehensive, User-Friendly Tool for Simulating Stochastic Biological Processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maarleveld, T.R.; Olivier, B.G.; Bruggeman, F.J.

    2013-01-01

    Single-cell and single-molecule measurements indicate the importance of stochastic phenomena in cell biology. Stochasticity creates spontaneous differences in the copy numbers of key macromolecules and the timing of reaction events between genetically-identical cells. Mathematical models are indispe

  14. Optimal Ski Jump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebilas, Krzysztof

    2013-01-01

    Consider a skier who goes down a takeoff ramp, attains a speed "V", and jumps, attempting to land as far as possible down the hill below (Fig. 1). At the moment of takeoff the angle between the skier's velocity and the horizontal is [alpha]. What is the optimal angle [alpha] that makes the jump the longest possible for the fixed magnitude of the…

  15. Jumping Good Fun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nye, Susan B.

    2010-01-01

    Jumping rope is an activity that can be fun and enjoyable for all students. It requires minimal activity space, can be performed individually or in small groups, and is an inexpensive way to engage students in a lifelong physical activity. Jumping rope is commonly used by coaches and athletes for training purposes to improve aerobic endurance,…

  16. Jumping Good Fun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nye, Susan B.

    2010-01-01

    Jumping rope is an activity that can be fun and enjoyable for all students. It requires minimal activity space, can be performed individually or in small groups, and is an inexpensive way to engage students in a lifelong physical activity. Jumping rope is commonly used by coaches and athletes for training purposes to improve aerobic endurance,…

  17. The Effect of Jump on Evaluating Natural Resource Investments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Haisheng; Zhou Yongzhang; Wang Shugong

    2004-01-01

    The evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices.It is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing. This paper describes a model for evaluating natural resource investments under uncertainty from a new perspective. The previous works in this field mostly regard the movements of natural resource prices as a continuous GBM process, which pays few attentions to the shock of unexpected bad news. Our model provides the first theoretical method to analyze the impact of such "jump" on investment decisions. It concludes that the more frequently bad news happens,the earlier a project will be invested.

  18. Genetic correlations between dressage, show jumping and studbook-entry inspection traits in a process of specialization in Dutch Warmblood horses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, G.; Ducro, B.J.; Arendonk, van J.A.M.; Norberg, E.; Madsen, P.

    2016-01-01

    Sport performance in dressage and show jumping are two important traits in the breeding goals of many studbooks. To determine the optimum selection scheme for jumping and dressage, knowledge is needed on the genetic correlation between both disciplines and between traits measured early in life an

  19. Aboveground and belowground arthropods experience different relative influences of stochastic versus deterministic community assembly processes following disturbance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Ferrenberg

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background Understanding patterns of biodiversity is a longstanding challenge in ecology. Similar to other biotic groups, arthropod community structure can be shaped by deterministic and stochastic processes, with limited understanding of what moderates the relative influence of these processes. Disturbances have been noted to alter the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes on community assembly in various study systems, implicating ecological disturbances as a potential moderator of these forces. Methods Using a disturbance gradient along a 5-year chronosequence of insect-induced tree mortality in a subalpine forest of the southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA, we examined changes in community structure and relative influences of deterministic and stochastic processes in the assembly of aboveground (surface and litter-active species and belowground (species active in organic and mineral soil layers arthropod communities. Arthropods were sampled for all years of the chronosequence via pitfall traps (aboveground community and modified Winkler funnels (belowground community and sorted to morphospecies. Community structure of both communities were assessed via comparisons of morphospecies abundance, diversity, and composition. Assembly processes were inferred from a mixture of linear models and matrix correlations testing for community associations with environmental properties, and from null-deviation models comparing observed vs. expected levels of species turnover (Beta diversity among samples. Results Tree mortality altered community structure in both aboveground and belowground arthropod communities, but null models suggested that aboveground communities experienced greater relative influences of deterministic processes, while the relative influence of stochastic processes increased for belowground communities. Additionally, Mantel tests and linear regression models revealed significant associations between the

  20. Aboveground and belowground arthropods experience different relative influences of stochastic versus deterministic community assembly processes following disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Alexander S.; Faist, Akasha M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Understanding patterns of biodiversity is a longstanding challenge in ecology. Similar to other biotic groups, arthropod community structure can be shaped by deterministic and stochastic processes, with limited understanding of what moderates the relative influence of these processes. Disturbances have been noted to alter the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes on community assembly in various study systems, implicating ecological disturbances as a potential moderator of these forces. Methods Using a disturbance gradient along a 5-year chronosequence of insect-induced tree mortality in a subalpine forest of the southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA, we examined changes in community structure and relative influences of deterministic and stochastic processes in the assembly of aboveground (surface and litter-active species) and belowground (species active in organic and mineral soil layers) arthropod communities. Arthropods were sampled for all years of the chronosequence via pitfall traps (aboveground community) and modified Winkler funnels (belowground community) and sorted to morphospecies. Community structure of both communities were assessed via comparisons of morphospecies abundance, diversity, and composition. Assembly processes were inferred from a mixture of linear models and matrix correlations testing for community associations with environmental properties, and from null-deviation models comparing observed vs. expected levels of species turnover (Beta diversity) among samples. Results Tree mortality altered community structure in both aboveground and belowground arthropod communities, but null models suggested that aboveground communities experienced greater relative influences of deterministic processes, while the relative influence of stochastic processes increased for belowground communities. Additionally, Mantel tests and linear regression models revealed significant associations between the aboveground arthropod

  1. Stochastic dynamics of small ensembles of non-processive molecular motors: the parallel cluster model

    CERN Document Server

    Erdmann, Thorsten; Schwarz, Ulrich S

    2013-01-01

    Non-processive molecular motors have to work together in ensembles in order to generate appreciable levels of force or movement. In skeletal muscle, for example, hundreds of myosin II molecules cooperate in thick filaments. In non-muscle cells, by contrast, small groups with few tens of non-muscle myosin II motors contribute to essential cellular processes such as transport, shape changes or mechanosensing. Here we introduce a detailed and analytically tractable model for this important situation. Using a three-state crossbridge model for the myosin II motor cycle and exploiting the assumptions of fast power stroke kinetics and equal load sharing between motors in equivalent states, we reduce the stochastic reaction network to a one-step master equation for the binding and unbinding dynamics (parallel cluster model) and derive the rules for ensemble movement. We find that for constant external load, ensemble dynamics is strongly shaped by the catch bond character of myosin II, which leads to an increase of th...

  2. Two-boundary first exit time of Gauss-Markov processes for stochastic modeling of acto-myosin dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Onofrio, Giuseppe; Pirozzi, Enrica

    2017-05-01

    We consider a stochastic differential equation in a strip, with coefficients suitably chosen to describe the acto-myosin interaction subject to time-varying forces. By simulating trajectories of the stochastic dynamics via an Euler discretization-based algorithm, we fit experimental data and determine the values of involved parameters. The steps of the myosin are represented by the exit events from the strip. Motivated by these results, we propose a specific stochastic model based on the corresponding time-inhomogeneous Gauss-Markov and diffusion process evolving between two absorbing boundaries. We specify the mean and covariance functions of the stochastic modeling process taking into account time-dependent forces including the effect of an external load. We accurately determine the probability density function (pdf) of the first exit time (FET) from the strip by solving a system of two non singular second-type Volterra integral equations via a numerical quadrature. We provide numerical estimations of the mean of FET as approximations of the dwell-time of the proteins dynamics. The percentage of backward steps is given in agreement to experimental data. Numerical and simulation results are compared and discussed.

  3. Mixed effects in stochastic differential equation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; De Gaetano, Andrea

    2005-01-01

    maximum likelihood; pharmacokinetics; population estimates; random effects; repeated measurements; stochastic processes......maximum likelihood; pharmacokinetics; population estimates; random effects; repeated measurements; stochastic processes...

  4. Stochastic differential equations with variable structure driven by multiplicative Gaussian noise and sliding mode dynamic

    OpenAIRE

    Barbu, Viorel; Bonaccorsi, Stefano; Tubaro, Luciano

    2015-01-01

    This work is concerned with existence of weak solutions to discon- tinuous stochastic differential equations driven by multiplicative Gaus- sian noise and sliding mode control dynamics generated by stochastic differential equations with variable structure, that is with jump nonlin- earity. The treatment covers the finite dimensional stochastic systems and the stochastic diffusion equation with multiplicative noise.

  5. Stochastic control under progressive enlargement of filtrations and applications to multiple defaults risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Pham, Huyen

    2010-01-01

    We formulate and investigate a general stochastic control problem under a progressive enlargement of filtration. The global information is enlarged from a reference filtration and the knowledge of multiple random times together with associated marks when they occur. By working under a density hypothesis on the conditional joint distribution of the random times and marks, we prove a decomposition of the original stochastic control problem under the global filtration into classical stochastic control problems under the reference filtration, which are determined in a finite backward induction. Our method revisits and extends in particular stochastic control of diffusion processes with finite number of jumps. This study is motivated by optimization problems arising in default risk management, and we provide applications of our decomposition result for the indifference pricing of defaultable claims, and the optimal investment under bilateral counterparty risk. The solutions are expressed in terms of BSDEs involvin...

  6. Stochastic kinetic models: Dynamic independence, modularity and graphs

    CERN Document Server

    Bowsher, Clive G

    2010-01-01

    The dynamic properties and independence structure of stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are analyzed. An SKM is a highly multivariate jump process used to model chemical reaction networks, particularly those in biochemical and cellular systems. We identify SKM subprocesses with the corresponding counting processes and propose a directed, cyclic graph (the kinetic independence graph or KIG) that encodes the local independence structure of their conditional intensities. Given a partition $[A,D,B]$ of the vertices, the graphical separation $A\\perp B|D$ in the undirected KIG has an intuitive chemical interpretation and implies that $A$ is locally independent of $B$ given $A\\cup D$. It is proved that this separation also results in global independence of the internal histories of $A$ and $B$ conditional on a history of the jumps in $D$ which, under conditions we derive, corresponds to the internal history of $D$. The results enable mathematical definition of a modularization of an SKM using its implied dynamics. Gra...

  7. Relative importance of deterministic and stochastic processes in driving arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal assemblage during the spreading of a toxic plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Guoxi; Liu, Yongjun; Mao, Lin; Jiang, Shengjing; Zhang, Qi; Cheng, Gang; An, Lizhe; Du, Guozhen; Feng, Huyuan

    2014-01-01

    Both deterministic and stochastic processes are expected to drive the assemblages of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, but little is known about the relative importance of these processes during the spreading of toxic plants. Here, the species composition and phylogenetic structure of AM fungal communities colonizing the roots of a toxic plant, Ligularia virgaurea, and its neighborhood plants, were analyzed in patches with different individual densities of L. virgaurea (represents the spreading degree). Community compositions of AM fungi in both root systems were changed significantly by the L. virgaurea spreading, and also these communities fitted the neutral model very well. AM fungal communities in patches with absence and presence of L. virgaurea were phylogenetically random and clustered, respectively, suggesting that the principal ecological process determining AM fungal assemblage shifted from stochastic process to environmental filtering when this toxic plant was present. Our results indicate that deterministic and stochastic processes together determine the assemblage of AM fungi, but the dominant process would be changed by the spreading of toxic plants, and suggest that the spreading of toxic plants in alpine meadow ecosystems might be involving the mycorrhizal symbionts.

  8. Relative importance of deterministic and stochastic processes in driving arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal assemblage during the spreading of a toxic plant.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoxi Shi

    Full Text Available Both deterministic and stochastic processes are expected to drive the assemblages of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM fungi, but little is known about the relative importance of these processes during the spreading of toxic plants. Here, the species composition and phylogenetic structure of AM fungal communities colonizing the roots of a toxic plant, Ligularia virgaurea, and its neighborhood plants, were analyzed in patches with different individual densities of L. virgaurea (represents the spreading degree. Community compositions of AM fungi in both root systems were changed significantly by the L. virgaurea spreading, and also these communities fitted the neutral model very well. AM fungal communities in patches with absence and presence of L. virgaurea were phylogenetically random and clustered, respectively, suggesting that the principal ecological process determining AM fungal assemblage shifted from stochastic process to environmental filtering when this toxic plant was present. Our results indicate that deterministic and stochastic processes together determine the assemblage of AM fungi, but the dominant process would be changed by the spreading of toxic plants, and suggest that the spreading of toxic plants in alpine meadow ecosystems might be involving the mycorrhizal symbionts.

  9. Thermodynamic and stochastic theory of hydrodynamic and power-producing processes. [Annual report], September 1991--September 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, J.

    1992-09-16

    Thermodynamics of the transport processes of diffusion, thermal conduction, and viscous flow at a macroscopic level are developed for the simplest cases of one-dimensional transport in fluids for individual linear and nonlinear processes approaching a stationary non-equilibrium state. Formulation has started of thermodynamic and stochastic theory of combinations of transport processes. Global thermodynamic and stochastic theory of open chemical systems frar from equilibrium is continued with analysis of a broad class of isothermal, multicomponent reaction mechanisms with multiple steady states with assumed local equilibrium. Stationary solutions are obtained of the master equation for single and multi-intermediate autocatalytic chemical systems. A kinetic potential is identified that governs the deterministic time evolution of coupled tank reactors. A second-order response theory was developed to investigate the effects of external periodic perturbations on a chemical reaction at a stable steady state in an open reactor.

  10. From stochastic processes to numerical methods: A new scheme for solving reaction subdiffusion fractional partial differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angstmann, C.N.; Donnelly, I.C. [School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Australia, Sydney NSW 2052 (Australia); Henry, B.I., E-mail: B.Henry@unsw.edu.au [School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Australia, Sydney NSW 2052 (Australia); Jacobs, B.A. [School of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Private Bag 3, Wits 2050 (South Africa); DST–NRF Centre of Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (CoE-MaSS) (South Africa); Langlands, T.A.M. [Department of Mathematics and Computing, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba QLD 4350 (Australia); Nichols, J.A. [School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Australia, Sydney NSW 2052 (Australia)

    2016-02-15

    We have introduced a new explicit numerical method, based on a discrete stochastic process, for solving a class of fractional partial differential equations that model reaction subdiffusion. The scheme is derived from the master equations for the evolution of the probability density of a sum of discrete time random walks. We show that the diffusion limit of the master equations recovers the fractional partial differential equation of interest. This limiting procedure guarantees the consistency of the numerical scheme. The positivity of the solution and stability results are simply obtained, provided that the underlying process is well posed. We also show that the method can be applied to standard reaction–diffusion equations. This work highlights the broader applicability of using discrete stochastic processes to provide numerical schemes for partial differential equations, including fractional partial differential equations.

  11. Stochastic processes and feedback-linearisation for online identification and Bayesian adaptive control of fully-actuated mechanical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Calliess, Jan-Peter; Roberts, Stephen J

    2013-01-01

    This work proposes a new method for simultaneous probabilistic identification and control of an observable, fully-actuated mechanical system. Identification is achieved by conditioning stochastic process priors on observations of configurations and noisy estimates of configuration derivatives. In contrast to previous work that has used stochastic processes for identification, we leverage the structural knowledge afforded by Lagrangian mechanics and learn the drift and control input matrix functions of the control-affine system separately. We utilise feedback-linearisation to reduce, in expectation, the uncertain nonlinear control problem to one that is easy to regulate in a desired manner. Thereby, our method combines the flexibility of nonparametric Bayesian learning with epistemological guarantees on the expected closed-loop trajectory. We illustrate our method in the context of torque-actuated pendula where the dynamics are learned with a combination of normal and log-normal processes.

  12. From stochastic processes to numerical methods: A new scheme for solving reaction subdiffusion fractional partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angstmann, C. N.; Donnelly, I. C.; Henry, B. I.; Jacobs, B. A.; Langlands, T. A. M.; Nichols, J. A.

    2016-02-01

    We have introduced a new explicit numerical method, based on a discrete stochastic process, for solving a class of fractional partial differential equations that model reaction subdiffusion. The scheme is derived from the master equations for the evolution of the probability density of a sum of discrete time random walks. We show that the diffusion limit of the master equations recovers the fractional partial differential equation of interest. This limiting procedure guarantees the consistency of the numerical scheme. The positivity of the solution and stability results are simply obtained, provided that the underlying process is well posed. We also show that the method can be applied to standard reaction-diffusion equations. This work highlights the broader applicability of using discrete stochastic processes to provide numerical schemes for partial differential equations, including fractional partial differential equations.

  13. Portfolio Selection with Jumps under Regime Switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Zhao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a continuous-time version of the mean-variance portfolio selection model with jumps under regime switching. The portfolio selection is proposed and analyzed for a market consisting of one bank account and multiple stocks. The random regime switching is assumed to be independent of the underlying Brownian motion and jump processes. A Markov chain modulated diffusion formulation is employed to model the problem.

  14. On the nature of heart rate variability in a breathing normal subject: a stochastic process analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, Teodor; Petelczyc, Monika; Zebrowski, Jan J; Prejbisz, Aleksander; Kabat, Marek; Januszewicz, Andrzej; Piotrowska, Anna Justyna; Szelenberger, Waldemar

    2009-06-01

    Human heart rate is moderated by the autonomous nervous system acting predominantly through the sinus node (the main cardiac physiological pacemaker). One of the dominant factors that determine the heart rate in physiological conditions is its coupling with the respiratory rhythm. Using the language of stochastic processes, we analyzed both rhythms simultaneously taking the data from polysomnographic recordings of two healthy individuals. Each rhythm was treated as a sum of a deterministic drift term and a diffusion term (Kramers-Moyal expansion). We found that normal heart rate variability may be considered as the result of a bidirectional coupling of two nonlinear oscillators: the heart itself and the respiratory system. On average, the diffusion (noise) component measured is comparable in magnitude to the oscillatory (deterministic) term for both signals investigated. The application of the Kramers-Moyal expansion may be useful for medical diagnostics providing information on the relation between respiration and heart rate variability. This interaction is mediated by the autonomous nervous system, including the baroreflex, and results in a commonly observed phenomenon--respiratory sinus arrhythmia which is typical for normal subjects and often impaired by pathology.

  15. On the nature of heart rate variability in a breathing normal subject: A stochastic process analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, Teodor; Petelczyc, Monika; Żebrowski, Jan J.; Prejbisz, Aleksander; Kabat, Marek; Januszewicz, Andrzej; Piotrowska, Anna Justyna; Szelenberger, Waldemar

    2009-06-01

    Human heart rate is moderated by the autonomous nervous system acting predominantly through the sinus node (the main cardiac physiological pacemaker). One of the dominant factors that determine the heart rate in physiological conditions is its coupling with the respiratory rhythm. Using the language of stochastic processes, we analyzed both rhythms simultaneously taking the data from polysomnographic recordings of two healthy individuals. Each rhythm was treated as a sum of a deterministic drift term and a diffusion term (Kramers-Moyal expansion). We found that normal heart rate variability may be considered as the result of a bidirectional coupling of two nonlinear oscillators: the heart itself and the respiratory system. On average, the diffusion (noise) component measured is comparable in magnitude to the oscillatory (deterministic) term for both signals investigated. The application of the Kramers-Moyal expansion may be useful for medical diagnostics providing information on the relation between respiration and heart rate variability. This interaction is mediated by the autonomous nervous system, including the baroreflex, and results in a commonly observed phenomenon—respiratory sinus arrhythmia which is typical for normal subjects and often impaired by pathology.

  16. Quantifying Measurement Fluctuations from Stochastic Surface Processes on Sensors with Heterogeneous Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charmet, Jérôme; Michaels, Thomas C. T.; Daly, Ronan; Prasad, Abhinav; Thiruvenkathanathan, Pradyumna; Langley, Robin S.; Knowles, Tuomas P. J.; Seshia, Ashwin A.

    2016-06-01

    Recent advances in micro- and nanotechnology have enabled the development of ultrasensitive sensors capable of detecting small numbers of species. In general, however, the response induced by the random adsorption of a small number of objects onto the surface of such sensors results in significant fluctuations due to the heterogeneous sensitivity inherent to many such sensors coupled to statistical fluctuations in the particle number. At present, this issue is addressed by considering either the limit of very large numbers of analytes, where fluctuations vanish, or the converse limit, where the sensor response is governed by individual analytes. Many cases of practical interest, however, fall between these two limits and remain challenging to analyze. Here, we address this limitation by deriving a general theoretical framework for quantifying measurement variations on mechanical resonators resulting from statistical-number fluctuations of analyte species. Our results provide insights into the stochastic processes in the sensing environment and offer opportunities to improve the performance of mechanical-resonator-based sensors. This metric can be used, among others, to aid in the design of robust sensor platforms to reach ultrahigh-resolution measurements using an array of sensors. These concepts, illustrated here in the context of biosensing, are general and can therefore be adapted and extended to other sensors with heterogeneous sensitivity.

  17. Stochastic Signal Processing for Sound Environment System with Decibel Evaluation and Energy Observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akira Ikuta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In real sound environment system, a specific signal shows various types of probability distribution, and the observation data are usually contaminated by external noise (e.g., background noise of non-Gaussian distribution type. Furthermore, there potentially exist various nonlinear correlations in addition to the linear correlation between input and output time series. Consequently, often the system input and output relationship in the real phenomenon cannot be represented by a simple model using only the linear correlation and lower order statistics. In this study, complex sound environment systems difficult to analyze by using usual structural method are considered. By introducing an estimation method of the system parameters reflecting correlation information for conditional probability distribution under existence of the external noise, a prediction method of output response probability for sound environment systems is theoretically proposed in a suitable form for the additive property of energy variable and the evaluation in decibel scale. The effectiveness of the proposed stochastic signal processing method is experimentally confirmed by applying it to the observed data in sound environment systems.

  18. Stochastic parametrization of multiscale processes using a dual-grid approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shutts, Glenn; Allen, Thomas; Berner, Judith

    2008-07-28

    Some speculative proposals are made for extending current stochastic sub-gridscale parametrization methods using the techniques adopted from the field of computer graphics and flow visualization. The idea is to emulate sub-filter-scale physical process organization and time evolution on a fine grid and couple the implied coarse-grained tendencies with a forecast model. A two-way interaction is envisaged so that fine-grid physics (e.g. deep convective clouds) responds to forecast model fields. The fine-grid model may be as simple as a two-dimensional cellular automaton or as computationally demanding as a cloud-resolving model similar to the coupling strategy envisaged in 'super-parametrization'. Computer codes used in computer games and visualization software illustrate the potential for cheap but realistic simulation where emphasis is placed on algorithmic stability and visual realism rather than pointwise accuracy in a predictive sense. In an ensemble prediction context, a computationally cheap technique would be essential and some possibilities are outlined. An idealized proof-of-concept simulation is described, which highlights technical problems such as the nature of the coupling.

  19. On the use of stochastic process-based methods for the analysis of hyperspectral data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landgrebe, David A.

    1992-01-01

    Further development in remote sensing technology requires refinement of information system design aspects, i.e., the ability to specify precisely the data to collect and the means to extract increasing amounts of information from the increasingly rich and complex data stream created. One of the principal directions of advance is that data from much larger numbers of spectral bands can be collected, but with significantly increased signal-to-noise ratio. The theory of stochastic or random processes may be applied to the modeling of second-order variations. A multispectral data set with a large number of spectral bands is analyzed using standard pattern recognition techniques. The data were classified using first a single spectral feature, then two, and continuing on with greater and greater numbers of features. Three different classification schemes are used: a standard maximum likelihood Gaussian scheme; the same approach with the mean values of all classes adjusted to be the same; and the use of a minimum distance to means scheme such that mean differences are used.

  20. Online Model Learning of Buildings Using Stochastic Hybrid Systems Based on Gaussian Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamzah Abdel-Aziz

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical models are essential for model-based control methodologies which allow smart buildings to operate autonomously in an energy and cost efficient manner. However, buildings have complex thermal dynamics which are affected externally by the environment and internally by thermal loads such as equipment and occupancy. Moreover, the physical parameters of buildings may change over time as the buildings age or due to changes in the buildings’ configuration or structure. In this paper, we introduce an online model learning methodology to identify a nonparametric dynamical model for buildings when the thermal load is latent (i.e., the thermal load cannot be measured. The proposed model is based on stochastic hybrid systems, where the discrete state describes the level of the thermal load and the continuous dynamics represented by Gaussian processes describe the thermal dynamics of the air temperature. We demonstrate the evaluation of the proposed model using two-zone and five-zone buildings. The data for both experiments are generated using the EnergyPlus software. Experimental results show that the proposed model estimates the thermal load level correctly and predicts the thermal behavior with good performance.