WorldWideScience

Sample records for isolated climatically vulnerable

  1. Municipal vulnerability to climate change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available South Africa, like the rest of Africa, is considered highly vulnerable to climate change and variability as well as to global change. Climate change is and will continue to be an issue of concern in the development of the country. South Africa faces...

  2. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  3. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    victoria

    to adapt to climate change automatically implies vulnerability [14]. Thus, a .... this pattern is that rainfall may not be witnessed when desired for agricultural production .... climate change since it will enhance their ability to adopt innovations and ...

  4. Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

  5. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-21

    Apr 21, 2016 ... Much of this biodiversity is highly vulnerable to climate change. ... an astonishing range of life forms found nowhere else on the planet. ... As well as improving information on climate change vulnerabilities, ... They also note negative effects on traditional knowledge, which is seen as losing its sacred power.

  6. Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    anshory

    Development Studies (CEDS), Padjadjaran University, for his excellent research assistance. ... Malaysia, and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change. 2. ... system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), ... national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia, i.e., ...

  7. Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urbanisation and climate change are among the major challenges for sustainable development in Africa. The overall aim of this book is to present innovative approaches to vulnerability analysis and for enhancing the resilience of African cities against climate change-induced risks. Locally adapted...... explores the role of governance in successfully coping with climate-induced risks in urban areas. The book is unique in that it combines: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences...

  8. CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

  9. Climate indices for vulnerability assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persson, Gunn; Baerring, Lars; Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Rummuk ainen, Markku

    2007-08-15

    The demand is growing for practical information on climate projections and the impacts expected in different geographical regions and different sectors. It is a challenge to transform the vast amount of data produced in climate models into relevant information for climate change impact studies. Climate indices based on climate model data can be used as means to communicate climate change impact relations. In this report a vast amount of results is presented from a multitude of indices based on different regional climate scenarios. The regional climate scenarios described in this report show many similarities with previous scenarios in terms of general evolution and amplitude of future European climate change. The broad features are manifested in increases in warm and decreases in cold indices. Likewise are presented increases in wet indices in the north and dry indices in the south. Despite the extensive nature of the material presented, it does not cover the full range of possible climate change. We foresee a continued interactive process with stakeholders as well as continued efforts and updates of the results presented in the report.

  10. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  11. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M.; Van Velthuizen, H.

    2002-08-01

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  12. Climate change vulnerability in Ethiopia : disaggregation of Tigray Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gidey Gebrehiwot, T.; Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and variability severely affect rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity, yet they are causes of stress vulnerable rural households have to cope with. This paper investigated farming communities' vulnerability to climate change and climate variability across 34

  13. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  14. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

    1995-01-01

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country's vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations

  15. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

  16. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    victoria

    climate change in eight selected rural settlements in Sokoto State, Nigeria adopting the ... on the environmental and socio-economic determinants of agricultural vulnerability to .... global warming show increasing trends in Sokoto. .... One of the consequences of desertification is southward migration of nomads to the more.

  17. Social Protection and Vulnerability to Climate Shocks: a Panel Data ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ' autonomous adaptation by reducing vulnerability to climatic shocks. This paper examines the role of the Productive Safety Net Program in reducing vulnerability to climate related shocks and its impacts on autonomous adaptation strategies ...

  18. Vulnerability of birds to climate change in California's Sierra Nevada

    OpenAIRE

    Rodney B. Siegel; Peter Pyle; James H. Thorne; Andrew J. Holguin; Christine A. Howell; Sarah Stock; Morgan W. Tingley

    2014-01-01

    In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed i...

  19. Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly Shvidenko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ukraine is a country of the Mid-Latitude ecotone—a transition zone between forest zone and forestless dry lands. Availability of water defines distribution of the country’s forests and decreases their productivity towards the south. Climate change generates a particular threat for Ukrainian forests and stability of agroforestry landscapes. This paper considers the impacts of expected climate change on vulnerability of Ukrainian forests using ensembles of global and regional climatic models (RCM based on Scenarios B1, A2, A1B of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, and a “dry and warm” scenario A1B+T−P (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. The spatially explicit assessment was provided by RCM for the WMO standard period (1961–1990, “recent” (1991–2010 and three future periods: 2011–2030, 2031–2050 and 2081–2100. Forest-climate model by Vorobjov and model of amplitude of flora’s tolerance to climate change by Didukh, as well as a number of specialized climatic indicators, were used in the assessment. Different approaches lead to rather consistent conclusions. Water stress is the major limitation factor of distribution and resilience of flatland Ukrainian forests. Within Scenario A1B, the area with unsuitable growth conditions for major forest forming species will substantially increase by end of the century occupying major part of Ukraine. Scenario A1B+T−P projects even a more dramatic decline of the country’s forests. It is expected that the boundary of conditions that are favorable for forests will shift to north and northwest, and forests of the xeric belt will be the most vulnerable. Consistent policies of adaptation and mitigation might reduce climate-induced risks for Ukrainian forests.

  20. Adaptation to climate change and industrial vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnaud, Benjamin; Ferret, Celine

    2010-06-01

    In today's societies, the production base made up by the industrial fabric acts as an important link between the climate and its variations and our lifestyle. However, several decades of experience have often enabled us to minimise the impact of the weather and its fluctuations on activities, making the industrial sector out to be purely artificial and protected from climate impacts. Yet climate change leads us to challenge this assumption: if the industrial base is supposed to be impervious to the current climate, is this still the case in a context of climate change? In an attempt to answer this question, the Invulnerable project was launched, led by the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) and bringing together scientific and industrial partners (Meteo-France, IPSL, CERFACS). Observing the availability of scientific resources on climate change, partly resulting from the modeling research coordinated by the IPCC, the idea was to work with industries to identify their vulnerabilities and to use these to define indicators for climatologists. These indicators are not chosen by scientists without consulting industries, but are in fact defined by these industries to ensure they correspond to their needs as closely as possible. The challenge is therefore to bring together scientists and industries and to catalyse a mutual understanding to ensure this discussion results in one or several indicators that are relevant to the activity in question and on which climatologists can work

  1. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennessy, K.; Fitzharris, B.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.7 0 C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

  2. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

  3. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

  4. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  5. Seeing climate vulnerabilities through lived experience in Madagascar

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-04-21

    Apr 21, 2011 ... ... both vulnerability and strategies for reducing risk, and the project is in the process of producing a range ... of the team's effort to paint a composite map of climate vulnerability and risk to agrarian systems. ... Feeling stressed?

  6. Perspectives on contextual vulnerability in discourses of climate conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okpara, U. T.; Stringer, L. C.; Dougill, A. J.

    2016-02-01

    The science of climate security and conflict is replete with controversies. Yet the increasing vulnerability of politically fragile countries to the security consequences of climate change is widely acknowledged. Although climate conflict reflects a continuum of conditional forces that coalesce around the notion of vulnerability, how different portrayals of vulnerability influence the discursive formation of climate conflict relations remains an exceptional but under-researched issue. This paper combines a systematic discourse analysis with a vulnerability interpretation diagnostic tool to explore (i) how discourses of climate conflict are constructed and represented, (ii) how vulnerability is communicated across discourse lines, and (iii) the strength of contextual vulnerability against a deterministic narrative of scarcity-induced conflict, such as that pertaining to land. Systematically characterising climate conflict discourses based on the central issues constructed, assumptions about mechanistic relationships, implicit normative judgements and vulnerability portrayals, provides a useful way of understanding where discourses differ. While discourses show a wide range of opinions "for" and "against" climate conflict relations, engagement with vulnerability has been less pronounced - except for the dominant context centrism discourse concerned about human security (particularly in Africa). In exploring this discourse, we observe an increasing sense of contextual vulnerability that is oriented towards a concern for complexity rather than predictability. The article concludes by illustrating that a turn towards contextual vulnerability thinking will help advance a constructivist theory-informed climate conflict scholarship that recognises historicity, specificity, and variability as crucial elements of contextual totalities of any area affected by climate conflict.

  7. Vulnerability of southern plains agriculture to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is a key driver for all ecological and economic systems; therefore, climate change introduces additional uncertainty and vulnerability into these systems. Agriculture represents a major land use that is critical to the survival of human societies and it is highly vulnerable to climate. Clima...

  8. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J.; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a c...

  9. Vulnerability of birds to climate change in California's Sierra Nevada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodney B. Siegel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA. The CCVI assesses species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change within a defined geographic area, through the integration of (a species' range maps, (b information about species' natural history traits and ecological relationships, (c historic and current climate data, and (d spatially explicit climate change projections. We conducted the assessment under two different downscaled climate models with divergent projections about future precipitation through the middle of the 21st century. Assessments differed relatively little under the two climate models. Of five CCVI vulnerability ranking categories, only one species, White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura, received the most vulnerable rank, Extremely Vulnerable. No species received the second-highest vulnerability ranking, Highly Vulnerable. Sixteen species scored as Moderately Vulnerable using one or both climate models: Common Merganser (Mergus merganser, Osprey (Pandion haliaetus, Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus, Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis, Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus, Prairie Falcon (Falco mexicanus, Spotted Sandpiper (Actitis macularius, Great Gray Owl (Strix nebulosa, Black Swift (Cypseloides niger, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana, American Dipper (Cinclus mexicanus, Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus, American Pipit (Anthus rubescens, Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch (Leucosticte tephrocotis, Pine Grosbeak

  10. The use of climate information in vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    This memorandum focuses on the use of climate information when performing a vulnerability : assessment, a topic that was discussed at the Newark Pilot Peer Exchange Workshop on May 4-5, : 2011. The memorandum describes several sources of climate info...

  11. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  12. Societal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Handmer, J.W.; Dovers, S.; Downing, T.E.

    1999-01-01

    Institutions in many wealthy industrialised countries are robust and their societies appear to be relatively well insulated against the impacts of climate variability, economic problems elsewhere and so on. However, many countries are not in this position, and there is a growing group of humanity which is not benefiting from the apparent global adaptive trends. Worst case scenarios reinforce the impact of this uneven distribution of adaptive capacity, both between and within countries. Nevertheless, at the broad global scale human societies are strongly adaptive and not threatened by climate change for many decades. At the local level the picture is quite different and the survival of some populations at their present locations is in doubt. In the absence of abatement, the longer term outlook is highly uncertain. Adaptation research needs to begin with an understanding of social and economic vulnerability. It requires a different approach to the traditional IPCC impacts assessment, as human behaviour, institutional capacity and culture are more important than biophysical impacts. This is consistent with the intellectual history of the IPCC which has gradually embraced an increasing range of disciplines. 32 refs

  13. Assessment of farm households' vulnerability to climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is currently an emerging problem in Nigeria. The Niger Delta region presents some vulnerability due to activities of some oil companies. This study provides an assessment of farm households' perception of climate change and vulnerability in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The data were obtained form ...

  14. Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BRO OKOJIE

    Rural livelihoods in south western Nigeria are at risk to climate variability on the short run and climate change on .... to reduce their vulnerability to climate variability as well as longer-term climate change. Nigeria has lost her leading role in exportation of cocoa. This has been attributed .... sizes and type of farm ownership.

  15. RISK, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Iwama,Allan Yu; Batistella,Mateus; Ferreira,Lúcia da Costa; Alves,Diogenes Salas; Ferreira,Leila da Costa

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This study addresses risk, vulnerability, and their implications for the adaptation of communities to the problems they face in the everyday life and to those derived from climate change. Based on the literature about risk, vulnerability and adaptation to disasters and on a case study conducted in the Northern coast of São Paulo - Brazil, we summarize the converging themes in the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, which are divided in three components: (i) in...

  16. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a case study as socioeconomic data are readily available. To incorporate the spatial and temporal pattern of the climatic variables we use reanalysis datasets and empirical orthogonal functions. Our assessment strategy relies on the statistical behavior of climatic and socioeconomic indicators for the weighting and aggregation mechanism into a composite vulnerability indicator. Rather than assuming equal contribution to the formation of the composite indicator, we assume that the weights of the indicators vary inversely as the variance over the cantons (administrative division of Ecuador). This approach captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability in a comprehensive form. We find that the least vulnerable cantons concentrate around Ecuador's largest cities (e.g. Quito and Guayaquil); however, approximately 20 % of the national population lives in other cantons that are categorized as highly and very highly vulnerable to climate change. Results also show that the main determinants of high vulnerability are the lack of land tenure in agricultural areas and the nonexistence of government-funded programs directed to environmental and climate change management.

  17. Rural Nevada and climate change: vulnerability, beliefs, and risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, Ahmad Saleh; Smith, William James; Liu, Zhnongwei

    2012-06-01

    In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change-related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers' and farmers' sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water-dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change-specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

    2018-05-27

    Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  19. Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

    2017-09-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Social vulnerability and climate change: synthesis of literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathy Lynn; Katharine MacKendrick; Ellen M. Donoghue

    2011-01-01

    The effects of climate change are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others because of geographic location, the degree of association with climate-sensitive environments, and unique cultural, economic, or political characteristics of particular landscapes and human populations. Social vulnerability and equity in the context of climate change...

  1. Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the Lowland and Wetland Areas of Delta State, Nigeria. Project Abstract. Climate change has huge implications for Nigeria and for the rest of the world. This project will enhance knowledge of the key drivers of climate change by creating the Niger Delta regional ...

  2. Communicating climate risks to Vietnam's vulnerable coastal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-05-04

    May 4, 2015 ... A key aspect of this research involves communicating climate change ... to more effectively communicate climate change risk and uncertainty to ... youth groups and women's unions, to share climate expertise and improve ...

  3. Climate change: are we all vulnerable?: Reconsidering inequalities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnan, Alexandre

    2013-01-01

    This bibliographical note presents a book in which the author reviews two generally accepted ideas: first, the poorest communities would be the most vulnerable to climate change due to their weak adaptation capacities, and second, such an adaptation would only be an issue of projection on a long term. Based on his works on coastal areas and on his experience on issues of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change he shows that all societies are potentially vulnerable. He uses the notion of 'impact chains', introduces three global parameters for these chains (temperatures, sea level, and precipitation regime), and outlines the always increasing complexity of causes-consequences relationships. He discusses two key concepts: vulnerability as the degree at which a system might be affected by climate changes, and the adaptation capacity which is developed by societies to reduce their vulnerability to environmental changes

  4. DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Hutton C.W.

    Stakeholder Dialogue, London, June 19th, 2014. DEltas, vulnerability and Climate. Change: Migration and Adaptation. (DECCMA). Stakeholder Dialogue. Radisson Blu Edwardian Grafton Hotel, London, UK. June 19th, 2014 ...

  5. Climate variability and vulnerability to poverty in Nicaragua

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Herrera (Carlos); R. Ruben (Ruerd); A.G. Dijkstra (Geske)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis study considers the effect of climate variability on vulnerability to poverty in Nicaragua. It discusses how such vulnerability could be measured and which heterogeneous effects can be expected. A multilevel empirical framework is applied, linking per capita consumption

  6. Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis of Baluran National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beny Harjadi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Every ecosystem has a different level of susceptibility to environmental disturbances it receives, both from natural factors or anthropogenic disturbance. National Park (NP Baluran is one national park that has a representation of a complete ecosystem that includes upland forest ecosystems, lowland forests, coastal forests, mangroves, savanna and evergreen forest. The objective of this study is to get a formula calculation of vulnerability analysis of constant and dynamic factors. Baluran NP vulnerability assessment to climate change done by looking at the dynamic and fixed factors. Vulnerability remains a vulnerability factor to the condition of the original (control, whereas vulnerability is the vulnerability of the dynamic change factors which affected the condition from the outside. Constant Vulnerability (CV in  Baluran NP dominated resistant conditions (61%, meaning that the geomorphology and other fixed factors (slope and slope direction/aspect, then the condition in Baluran NP sufficiently resilient to climate change. Dynamic Vulnerability (DV is the vulnerability of an area or areas that change because of pressure from external factors. DV is influenced by climatic factors (WI = Wetness Index, soil (SBI = Soil Brightness Index, and vegetation (GI = Greenness Index. DV in  Baluran NP from 1999 to 2010 shifted from the original category of being (84.76% and shifted to the susceptible (59.88%.  The role of remote sensing for the analysis of raster digital system, while the geographic information system to display the results of cartographic maps.

  7. Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Syud A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2009-07-01

    Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample—particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa—with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.

  8. Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Syud A; Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hertel, Thomas W

    2009-01-01

    Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample-particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa-with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.

  9. Climate Change, Household Vulnerability and Smart Agriculture

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Marina

    The cost benefits analysis was the main technique used to evaluate alternative adaptation strategies. .... Figure 7 Different vulnerability levels of households from Lambani and Alice . ...... practices and the maintenance of surface residues.

  10. Questioning Complacency: Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, Karen; Eriksen, Siri; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto

    2006-01-01

    Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation

  11. analysis and mapping of climate change risk and vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, to determine the degree of climate risk and the relative vulnerability of the districts, to climate .... widely used index for quantifying drought, was extracted from ... semivariogram/Covariance model) in ArcGIS 9.3.

  12. Vulnerability of Smallholder Farmers' to Climate Change and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability in three districts (Basona Werana, Efratana Gidim and Menz Gera Meder) located in different agroecological zones (AEZs) in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Household level data about livelihood capitals and climate related ...

  13. Agricultural vulnerability to climate change in Sokoto State, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Although climate change is global threat, developing countries have been identified as most vulnerable owing to their low adaptive capacities. In Nigeria, while the impacts of climate cut across diverse sectors, agriculture remains the most susceptible due to the predominance of rainfed agriculture. This paper examines ...

  14. Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rural livelihoods in south western Nigeria are at risk to climate variability on the short run and climate change on the long run. This subjects agro ecological niches to high sensitivity and exposure thus reducing the adaptive capacity. Vulnerability results and the cocoa farming households, the major contributors to the ...

  15. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  16. Vulnerability of ecological systems for nuclear war climatic consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharuehll, M.; Khatchinson, T.; Kropper, U.; Kharuehll, K.

    1988-01-01

    Vulnerability of ecological systems of Northern hemisphere (terrestrial, aquatic and tropical) as well as Southern one in relation to climatic changes following large nuclear war is considered. When analyzing potential sensitivity of ecological systems to climatic changes, possible consequences are considered for different stress categories under various war scenarios. The above-mentioned stresses correspond to those adopted in published work by Pittok and others. To estimate the less important climatic disturbances a few additional computer-simulated models are developed

  17. Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Climate Vulnerability Assessments : An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Power Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    Energy security is a key concern in Albania, which relies on hydropower for about 90 percent of its electricity production. While renewable energy resources like hydropower play a fundamental role in moving the world towards a low-carbon economy, they are also vulnerable to climatic conditions. Climate variability already affects Albania's energy production to a considerable extent, and cl...

  19. Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-09-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adger, W.N.; Kelly, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neoclassical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global

  1. Urban vulnerability and climate change in Africa a multidisciplinary approach

    CERN Document Server

    Coly, Adrien; Fohlmeister, Sandra; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Kabisch, Sigrun; Kombe, Wilbard; Lindley, Sarah; Simonis, Ingo; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

    2015-01-01

    The book presents results of CLUVA (CLimate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa), a large European Commission funded research project (2010-2013). The project aimed to develop a better understanding of the risks and impacts of climate change related hazards to African cities, assess their vulnerability to these risks, and identify innovative strategies for planning and governance to increase their resilience. For the first time, a systematic and groundbreaking study of this kind was applied in an inter- and trans-disciplinary approach. CLUVA was unique in that it combined: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences and qualitative approaches of the social sciences; a novel multi-risk modeling methodology; strategic approaches to urban and green infrastructure planning with neighborhood perspectives of adaptation. The book broadly follows the approach taken in the CLUVA project. First, the co...

  2. Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

    2009-04-01

    Introduction Studying coastal zones as a territorial concept (Integrated coastal zone management) is an essential issue for managers, as they have to consider many different topics (natural hazards, resources management, tourism, climate change…). The recent approach in terms of "coastal vulnerability" studies (since the 90's) is the main tool used nowadays to help them in evaluating impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, specially considering climate change. This present communication aims to highlight the difficulties in integrating this concept in risk analysis as it is usually practiced in natural hazards sciences. 1) Coastal vulnerability as a recent issue The concept of coastal vulnerability mainly appears in the International panel on climate change works of 1992 (IPCC. 2001), where it is presented as essential for climate change adaptation. The concept has been defined by a common methodology which proposes the assessment of seven indicators, in regards to a sea level rise of 1m in 2100: people affected, people at risk, capital value at loss, land at loss, wetland at loss, potential adaptation costs, people at risk assuming this adaptation. Many national assessments have been implemented (Nicholls, et al. 1995) and a global assessment was proposed for three indicators (Nicholls, et al. 1999). The DINAS-Coast project reuses this methodology to produce the DIVA-tool for coastal managers (Vafeidis, et al. 2004). Besides, many other methodologies for national or regional coastal vulnerability assessments have been developed (review by (UNFCCC. 2008). The use of aggregated vulnerability indicators (including geomorphology, hydrodynamics, climate change…) is widespread: the USGS coastal vulnerability index is used worldwide and was completed by a social vulnerability index (Boruff, et al. 2005). Those index-based methods propose a vulnerability mapping which visualise indicators of erosion, submersion and/or socio economic sensibility in coastal zones

  3. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 juin 2007 ... Madagascar has completed its national plan of action for adapting to climate change. Several actors and decision-makers - agricultural policymakers, regional rural development managers, emergency services coordinators - are involved in the implementation of the plan. Unfortunately, they are far from ...

  4. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

    2016-08-11

    Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

  5. Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirza, M. [Environment Canada, Fredericton, NB (Canada). Adaptation and Impacts Research Division

    2007-07-01

    The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs.

  6. Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirza, M.

    2007-01-01

    The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs

  7. Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A

  8. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  9. Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.Torre Jorgenson; Vladimir Romanovsky; Jennifer Harden; Yuri Shur; Jonathan O' Donnell; Edward A.G. Schuur; Mikhail Kanevskiy; Sergei. Marchenko

    2010-01-01

    The resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change depends on complex interactions among topography, water, soil, vegetation, and snow, which allow permafrost to persist at mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) as high as +2 °C and degrade at MAATs as low as -20°C. To assess these interactions, we compiled existing data and tested effects of varying...

  10. Climate Change and Crop Vulnerability in Nigeria | Kalu | Agro ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Unfavorable environmental conditions such as caused by climate change would create some level of vulnerability of the crops and thus have implication on food security. Two components of the Agricultural Value Chain, production and storage, appear to be most responsive to changes in environments with production ...

  11. Assessment of Vulnerability of Farming Households to Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Vulnerability of Farming Households to Climate Change in Ekiti State, Nigeria. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Results of the study indicated that the farming households in Ekiti State witnessed change in weather conditions as reflected in unusual downpour of rain thus ...

  12. Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patt, A.; Patt, A.; Klein, R.J.T.; Vega-Leinert, A. de la

    2005-01-01

    Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. (authors)

  13. Critical list: the 100 nations most vulnerable to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayers, Jessica [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Huq, Saleemul

    2007-12-15

    Well over a billion people in 100 countries face a bleak future. In these, the nations most vulnerable to climate change, resilience has already been eroded by entrenched poverty, degraded or threatened environments and other problems. The harsher, more frequent natural disasters that are predicted could tip them over the edge into chronic famine or forced migration. Yet these are also the countries that have contributed least to climate change. It is vital that their voices and views be heard in the negotiations to determine the post-Kyoto climate regime. Equally importantly, the countries emitting the most greenhouse gases must redress the balance by establishing robust mitigation programmes and by supporting adaptation.

  14. Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paavola, Jouni

    2008-01-01

    This article examines farmers' livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic and other stressors. Some of these responses have depleted and degraded natural resources such as forest, soil and water resources, which will complicate their living with climate change in the future. This will be particularly problematic to vulnerable groups such as women, children and pastoralists who have limited access to employment, markets and public services. In this light, fair adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in Morogoro and elsewhere in developing countries requires several complementary responses. Adaptation efforts should involve effective governance of natural resources because they function as safety nets to vulnerable groups. In addition, strengthening of national markets by infrastructure investments and institutional reforms is needed to give incentives to intensification and diversification in agriculture. Market participation also demands enhancement of human capital by public programs on health, education and wellbeing

  15. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  16. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  17. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  18. Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heberger, M. G.; Cooley, H.; Moore, E.; Garzon, C.

    2011-12-01

    The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers, after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.

  19. Data Integration for Climate Vulnerability Mapping in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex de Sherbinin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability mapping reveals areas that are likely to be at greater risk of climate-related disasters in the future. Through integration of climate, biophysical, and socioeconomic data in an overall vulnerability framework, so-called “hotspots” of vulnerability can be identified. These maps can be used as an aid to targeting adaptation and disaster risk management interventions. This paper reviews vulnerability mapping efforts in West Africa conducted under the USAID-funded African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC project. The focus is on the integration of remotely sensed and socioeconomic data. Data inputs included a range of sensor data (e.g., MODIS NDVI, Landsat, SRTM elevation, DMSP-OLS night-time lights as well as high-resolution poverty, conflict, and infrastructure data. Two basic methods were used, one in which each layer was transformed into standardized indicators in an additive approach, and another in which remote sensing data were used to contextualize the results of composite indicators. We assess the benefits and challenges of data integration, and the lessons learned from these mapping exercises.

  20. Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of

  1. Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Júlia Alves Menezes

    Full Text Available Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

  2. Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

    2018-01-01

    Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

  3. Northern Great Basin Seasonal Lakes: Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, M.; Eitel, J.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal alkaline lakes in southeast Oregon, northeast California, and northwest Nevada serve as important habitat for migrating birds utilizing the Pacific Flyway, as well as local plant and animal communities. Despite their ecological importance, and anecdotal suggestions that these lakes are becoming less reliable, little is known about the vulnerability of these lakes to climate change. Our research seeks to understand the vulnerability of Northern Great Basin seasonal lakes to climate change. For this, we will be using historical information from the European Space Agency's Global Surface Water Explorer and the University of Idaho's gridMET climate product, to build a model that allows estimating surface water extent and timing based on climate variables. We will then utilize downscaled future climate projections to model surface water extent and timing in the coming decades. In addition, an unmanned aerial system (UAS) will be utilized at a subset of dried basins to obtain precise 3D bathymetry and calculate water volume hypsographs, a critical factor in understanding the likelihood of water persistence and biogeochemical habitat suitability. These results will be incorporated into decision support tools that land managers can utilize in water conservation, wildlife management, and climate mitigation actions. Future research may pair these forecasts with animal movement data to examine fragmentation of migratory corridors and species-specific impacts.

  4. Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cegnar, T.

    2010-09-01

    In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and

  5. Vulnerability and floor spectra of seismically isolated structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, K.H.

    2010-09-01

    This thesis was motivated by issues that arise regarding the use of the method of seismic isolation in the nuclear industry. Despite the research conducted during the last decades in the field of seismic isolation, many questions about the behavior of isolated structures remain. These questions concern, on the one hand, the vulnerability of these structures, due to an excursion (unexpected) in the post-linear domain, and on the other hand, phenomena that can lead to a significant excitation of none isolated modes. Furthermore, unlike previous work studying the seismic behavior of buildings, an important part of this thesis is devoted to the behavior of equipment through the study of floor spectra. Firstly, the probability of failure, in the case of nonlinear response of the superstructure, was studied with simple models, for different laws of nonlinear behavior and different types of support. Then, the effects of heavy damping were investigated and the mechanism of amplification of the response of non-isolated modes has been explained. To resolve the amplification problem of none isolated modes, the mixed isolated systems, combining passive isolation with semi-active devices, have been considered. The numerical analyses confirm the effectiveness of this approach. Finally, a series of shaking table tests on a simple model with two degrees of freedom was conducted. The model is equipped with a magneto-rheological damper which is controlled as a semi-active device. The comparison of the experimental results with those of numerical simulations shows that the models developed are able to represent satisfactorily the essential physical phenomena. (author)

  6. Urban Heat Wave Vulnerability Analysis Considering Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    JE, M.; KIM, H.; Jung, S.

    2017-12-01

    Much attention has been paid to thermal environments in Seoul City in South Korea since 2016 when the worst heatwave in 22 years. It is necessary to provide a selective measure by singling out vulnerable regions in advance to cope with the heat wave-related damage. This study aims to analyze and categorize vulnerable regions of thermal environments in the Seoul and analyzes and discusses the factors and risk factors for each type. To do this, this study conducted the following processes: first, based on the analyzed various literature reviews, indices that can evaluate vulnerable regions of thermal environment are collated. The indices were divided into climate exposure index related to temperature, sensitivity index including demographic, social, and economic indices, and adaptation index related to urban environment and climate adaptation policy status. Second, significant variables were derived to evaluate a vulnerable region of thermal environment based on the summarized indices in the above. this study analyzed a relationship between the number of heat-related patients in Seoul and variables that affected the number using multi-variate statistical analysis to derive significant variables. Third, the importance of each variable was calculated quantitatively by integrating the statistical analysis results and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Fourth, a distribution of data for each index was identified based on the selected variables and indices were normalized and overlapped. Fifth, For the climate exposure index, evaluations were conducted as same as the current vulnerability evaluation method by selecting future temperature of Seoul predicted through the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios as an evaluation variable. The results of this study can be utilized as foundational data to establish a countermeasure against heatwave in Seoul. Although it is limited to control heatwave occurrences itself completely, improvements

  7. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

    2014-04-05

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

  8. Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli

    2017-08-01

    The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

    2014-05-01

    This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

  10. Vulnerability of roads and associated structures to the effects of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arisz, H.; Therrien, M.; Burrell, B.C.; LeBlanc, M.M.

    2009-01-01

    The vulnerability of roads and associated structures in the City of Greater Sudbury to the effects of climate change was evaluated using the Public Infrastructure Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Engineering Protocol for Climate Change Infrastructure Assessment. Study objectives were to evaluate the vulnerability of road-related infrastructure in Greater Sudbury to climate change, and to identify potential impediments to the application of the protocol in other municipalities. Based on the experience gained during this study, recommendations were provided with respect to the vulnerabilities of roads and associated structures to the predicted effects of climate change and the performance of vulnerability assessments. (author)

  11. 76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-08

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9460-8; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2011-0485] Vulnerability... titled, Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

  12. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  13. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I—Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelson, R.; Kokic, P.; Crimp, S.; Meinke, H.B.; Howden, S.M.

    2010-01-01

    Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for

  14. Operationalizing analysis of micro-level climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiao, Xi; Moinuddin, Hasan

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores vulnerability and adaptive capacity of rural communities in Southern Laos, where households are highly dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources and vulnerable to seasonal weather fluctuations. The speed and magnitude of climate-induced changes may seriously challenge...... their ability to adapt. Participatory group discussions and 271 household surveys in three villages highlight the current level of vulnerability and adaptive capacity towards climatic variability and risks. This paper visualizes three dimensions of the vulnerability framework at two levels using the Community...... Climate Vulnerability Index and household climate vulnerability cube. Results show that not only poor households are most at risk from climate change challenges, but also those better-off households highly dependent on specialized agricultural production are locally exposed to climate change risks...

  15. Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hector Galbraith

    Full Text Available Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90% taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

  16. Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  17. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  18. What's in a word? Conflicting interpretations of vulnerability in climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, Karen; Eriksen, Siri; Schjolden, Ane; Nygaard, Lynn

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss two competing interpretations of vulnerability in the climate change literature and consider the implications for both research and policy. The first interpretation, which can be referred to as the ''end point'' approach, views vulnerability as a residual of climate change impacts minus adaptation. The second interpretation, which takes vulnerability as a ''starting point'', views vulnerability as a general characteristic generated by multiple factors and processes. Viewing vulnerability as an end point considers that adaptations and adaptive capacity determine vulnerability, whereas viewing vulnerability as a starting point holds that vulnerability determines adaptive capacity. The practical consequences of these two interpretations are illustrated through the examples of Norway and Mozambique. We show that, if the underlying causes and contexts of vulnerability are not taken into account, there is a danger of underestimating the magnitude (large), scope (social arid environmental) and urgency (high) of climate change. (author)

  19. Vulnerability of shortgrass prairie bird assemblages to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skagen, Susan K.; Dreitz, Victoria; Conrey, Reesa Y.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.; Knuffman, Lekha

    2016-01-01

    The habitats and resources needed to support grassland birds endemic to North American prairie ecosystems are seriously threatened by impending climate change. To assess the vulnerability of grassland birds to climate change, we consider various components of vulnerability, including sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011). Sensitivity encompasses the innate characteristics of a species and, in this context, is related to a species’ tolerance to changes in weather patterns. Groundnesting birds, including prairie birds, are particularly responsive to heat waves combined with drought conditions, as revealed by abundance and distribution patterns (Albright et al. 2010). To further assess sensitivity, we estimated reproductive parameters of nearly 3000 breeding attempts of a suite of prairie birds relative to prevailing weather. Fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado, 1997-2014, influenced breeding performance of a suite of avian species endemic to the shortgrass prairie, many of which have experienced recent population declines. High summer temperatures and intense rain events corresponded with lower nest survival for most species. Although dry conditions favored nest survival of Burrowing Owls and Mountain Plovers (Conrey 2010, Dreitz et al. 2012), drought resulted in smaller clutch sizes and lower nest survival for passerines (Skagen and Yackel Adams 2012, Conrey et al. in review). Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that some passerine species can maintain stable breeding populations in this region of the shortgrass prairie.

  20. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9192-2; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2010-0701] Climate Change... period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of... vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the types of analyses, models, and...

  1. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  2. Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

  3. Vulnerability of ecological systems to climatic effects of nuclear war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harwell, M.A.; Hutchinson, T.C.; Cropper, W.P. Jr.; Harwell, C.C.

    1985-01-01

    The authors' analyses are based on a suite of approaches: physiological information, historical analogs, simulation and statistical analyses, and expert judgment. Because of the great complexity of ecosystems across the global landscape and the temporal and spatial complexity of potential nuclear-war induced climatic disturbances, it is not possible uniquely to characterize the effects on ecosystems. A biome approach has been chosen as an appropriate level for generalization of potential effects. Northern Hemisphere temperate terrestrial ecosystems, aquatic ecosystems, tropical ecosystems, and Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical ecosystems are addressed. The ecosystem discussions emphasize effects on the primary producers, in large part because those components are fundamental to the total ecosystem and are often especially vulnerable to the types of perturbations considered here. Estimates of effects on fauna are largely based on those mediated through changes in food supplies. Further study of effects on trophic structures and of indirect effects on species propagated through the complex interactions of ecosystems is required

  4. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  5. Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendriksen, Kåre

    2011-01-01

    Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability Kåre Hendriksen, PhD student, Aalborg University, Denmark The previous isolation of the Arctic will change as a wide range of areas increasingly are integrated into the globalized world....... Coinciding climate changes cause an easier access for worldwide market as well as for the extraction of coastal oil and mineral resources. In an attempt to optimize the fishing fleet by economic measures it is centralized to larger units, and the exports of unprocessed fish and shellfish to low wage...... in contemporary developments leaving them with a feeling of being powerless. The consequences of contemporary policies and the problems arising will be illustrated through examples from traditional hunting and fishing districts in Greenland....

  6. To what extent are African Countries Vulnerable to climate change? Lessons from a new indicator of Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick GUILLAUMONT; Catherine SIMONET

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the vulnerability of African countries to climate change, for which they are not responsible. It is based on an index of structural or physical vulnerability to climate change at the country level, denominated below by the acronym PVCCI. This index has been created recently by the authors, and has been made available on the FERDI website. The design of this index draws both on the environmental literature, and some principles used by the United Nations to measure structura...

  7. Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore

    2009-01-01

    Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762

  8. Northeast and Midwest regional species and habitats at greatest risk and most vulnerable to climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Hilberg, Laura; Janowiak, Maria; Swanton, C.O.

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this Chapter are to describe climate change vulnerability, it’s components, the range of assessment methods being implemented regionally, and examples of training resources and tools. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments (CCVAs) have already been conducted for numerous Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need and their dependent 5 habitats across the Northeast and Midwest. This chapter provides a synthesis of different assessment frameworks, information on the locations (e.g., States) where vulnerability assessments were conducted, lists of individual species and habitats with their respective vulnerability rankings, and a comparison of how vulnerability rankings were determined among studies.

  9. Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, Karen; Aandahl, Guro; Tompkins, Heather [CICERO, Oslo (NO)] (and others)

    2004-12-01

    There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research community that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local- level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region, and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (Author)

  10. Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taback, I.

    1979-01-01

    The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

  11. Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia's Threatened Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmine R Lee

    Full Text Available Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species' vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia's threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species.

  12. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rurinda, J.

    2014-01-01

    Keywords: Climate change; Increased climate variability; Vulnerability; Smallholder farmers; Adaptation

    Climate change and increased climate variability are currently seen as the major constraints to the already stressed smallholder farming livelihood system in

  13. Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Miranda C; Cheung, William W L

    2018-02-01

    Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species-specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large-bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks

  14. Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, G. M. Monirul

    2017-05-01

    Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

  15. Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, G M Monirul

    2017-05-01

    Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

  16. Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Bing; Liang, Xiao-Jie; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Lu; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyzes the long-term relationships between hydropower generation and climate factors (precipitation), hydropower generation capacity (installed capacity of hydropower station) to quantify the vulnerability of renewable energy production in China for the case of hydropower generation. Furthermore, this study applies Grey forecasting model to forecast precipitation in different provinces, and then sets up different scenarios for precipitation based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios and results from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate projections for Impacts Studies) model. The most important result found in this research is the increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions and the main hydropower generation provinces of China to climate change. Other main empirical results reveal that the impacts of climate change on the supply of hydropower generation in China will be noteworthy for the society. Different scenarios have different effects on hydropower generation, of which A2 scenario (pessimistic, high emission) has the largest. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of every province are distinctly different, of which the Southwest part has the higher vulnerability than the average level while the central part lower. - Highlights: • The hydropower vulnerability will be enlarged with the rapid increase of hydropower capacity. • Modeling the vulnerability of hydropower in different scenarios and different provinces. • The increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions to climate change. • The increasing hydropower vulnerability of the main hydropower generation provinces. • Rainfall pattern caused by climate change would be the reason for the increasing vulnerability

  17. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

    2010-01-01

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken place. A

  18. Is your dam vulnerable to climate change? Using the PIEVC engineering protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourgeois, Gilles; Dickson, Stewart; Ness, Ryan; Lapp, David

    2010-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change on public infrastructure are currently studied to advance planning and prioritization of adaption strategies. This paper investigated the potential vulnerability of the Claireville and G. Ross Lord dams and reservoirs by considering the projected character, its magnitude and its rate of change in future local climatic conditions, the sensitivity of infrastructure to the changes, and the built-in capacity of the infrastructure to absorb any net negative consequence from the predicted changes in climatic conditions. This study used the public infrastructure engineering vulnerability (PIEV) engineering protocol to study the vulnerabilities of both facilities to current climate, as well as future climate change at the 2050 time horizon. Recommendations were provided for actions to be taken to address the potential vulnerabilities that were identified. The project determined that the two dams have the capacity to withstand the existing and projected future climate.

  19. Vulnerability of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yitayal A.

    adopted Vulnerability as expected poverty (VEP)approach was where an individual's vulnerability is the .... cropping seasons. About 21% of the respondents are below the food poverty line of ..... Cambridge, UK: University Press. Stige, L., J.

  20. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

    2013-01-01

    Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation

  1. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Moyle

    Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish

  2. Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Debbie

    2015-03-01

    Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.

  3. Climate change and health: Indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Jolliet, Olivier; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Parker, Edith A.; Timothy Dvonch, J.; O'Neill, Marie S.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature. Materials and methods: We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 in Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures' responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions. Results: Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85 °C, 13.8 °C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures. Conclusions: Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings to improve heat exposure assessment for epidemiological investigations. Weatherizing homes and modifying home surroundings could mitigate indoor heat exposure among the elderly.

  4. Climate change vulnerability to agrarian ecosystem of small Island: evidence from Sagar Island, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, S.; Satpati, L. N.; Choudhury, B. U.; Sadhu, S.

    2018-04-01

    The present study assessed climate change vulnerability in agricultural sector of low-lying Sagar Island of Bay of Bengal. Vulnerability indices were estimated using spatially aggregated biophysical and socio-economic parameters by applying principal component analysis and equal weight method. The similarities and differences of outputs of these two methods were analysed across the island. From the integration of outputs and based on the severity of vulnerability, explicit vulnerable zones were demarcated spatially. Results revealed that life subsistence agriculture in 11.8% geographical area (2829 ha) of the island along the western coast falls under very high vulnerable zone (VHVZ VI of 84-99%) to climate change. Comparatively higher values of exposure (0.53 ± 0.26) and sensitivity (0.78 ± 0.14) subindices affirmed that the VHV zone is highly exposed to climate stressor with very low adaptive capacity (ADI= 0.24 ± 0.16) to combat vulnerability to climate change. Hence, food security for a population of >22 thousands comprising >3.7 thousand agrarian households are highly exposed to climate change. Another 17% area comprising 17.5% population covering 20% villages in north-western and eastern parts of the island also falls under high vulnerable (VI= 61%-77%) zone. Findings revealed large spatial heterogeneity in the degree of vulnerability across the island and thus, demands devising area specific planning (adaptation and mitigation strategies) to address the climate change impact implications both at macro and micro levels.

  5. Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S Rempel

    Full Text Available Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna, wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina, and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina. We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

  6. Economic development and declining vulnerability to climate-related disasters in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jidong; Han, Guoyi; Zhou, Hongjian; Li, Ning

    2018-03-01

    Exposure and vulnerability are the main contributing factors of growing impact from climate-related disasters globally. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of vulnerability is important for designing effective disaster risk mitigation and adaptation measures. At national scale, most cross-country studies have suggested that economic vulnerability to disasters decreases as income increases, especially for developing countries. Research covering sub-national climate-related natural disasters is indispensable to obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the effect of regional economic growth on vulnerability reduction. Taking China as a case, this subnational scale study shows that economic development is correlated with the significant reduction in human fatalities but increase in direct economic losses (DELs) from climate-related disasters since 1949. The long-term trend in climate-related disaster vulnerability, reflected by mortality (1978-2015) and DELs (1990-2015) as a share of the total population and Gross Domestic Product, has seen significant decline among all economic regions in China. While notable differences remain among its West, Central and East economic regions, the temporal vulnerability change has been converging. The study further demonstrated that economic development level is correlated with human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters, and this vulnerability decreased with the increase of per-capita income. This study suggested that economic development can have nuanced effects on overall human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters. We argue that climate change science needs to acknowledge and examine the different pathways of vulnerability effects related to economic development.

  7. Land tenure insecurity, vulnerability to climate-induced disaster and opportunities for redress in southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tigere Chagutah

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Land tenure is an important variable impacting on vulnerability to climate-related disaster. Land tenure insecurity is widespread in southern Africa and manifests itself in a number of ways that accentuate vulnerability to climate change impacts. Insecure tenure is seen to heighten vulnerability against growing demand for land for residential purposes and working space in urban areas while in the rural areas insecure tenure militates against diversified livelihoods and hinders investment in appropriate technologies and uptake of sound environmental management practices. Using the focused synthesis method, this article (1 maps the intersections between land tenure insecurity and vulnerability to climate-induced disaster in southern Africa; and (2 identifies the opportunities tenure reforms hold for vulnerability reduction in a region predicted to suffer widespread impacts from climate change. The paper contends that land tenure is a critical component of the milieu of factors – economic, social, cultural, institutional, political and even psychological – that are known to shape vulnerability and determine the environment that people live in. The study finds that land tenure reforms can help to reduce vulnerability and enhance community resilience to climate change. In this regard, the article outlines how tenure reforms can help build diverse household livelihoods, improve environmental management, particularly in the rural areas, and encourage investment in robust housing and safe neighbourhoods among the urban poor – all of which are integral to the region’s response to climate change.

  8. "Climate change" and vulnerability analysis: poor will become poorer

    OpenAIRE

    Ozer, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) considers new evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warme...

  9. Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Hodges, Andrew; Wicks, Santhi; Kokic, Phil; Nelson, Rohan

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

  10. Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

    2016-03-01

    This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

  11. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  12. Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

    2017-01-01

    We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

  13. Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options for forest vegetation management in the northwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica Halofsky; David Peterson

    2016-01-01

    Recent vulnerability assessments, conducted in diverse regions in the northwestern United States, indicate that many commonalities exist with respect to projected vulnerabilities to climate change. Dry forests are projected to have significant changes in distribution and abundance of species, partially in response to higher temperature and lower soil moisture, but...

  14. Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

    2017-06-01

    Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

  15. Preventing disasters: public health vulnerability reduction as a sustainable adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keim, Mark E

    2011-06-01

    Global warming could increase the number and severity of extreme weather events. These events are often known to result in public health disasters, but we can lessen the effects of these disasters. By addressing the factors that cause changes in climate, we can mitigate the effects of climate change. By addressing the factors that make society vulnerable to the effects of climate, we can adapt to climate change. To adapt to climate change, a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction has been proposed. By reducing human vulnerability to disasters, we can lessen--and at times even prevent--their impact. Human vulnerability is a complex phenomenon that comprises social, economic, health, and cultural factors. Because public health is uniquely placed at the community level, it has the opportunity to lessen human vulnerability to climate-related disasters. At the national and international level, a supportive policy environment can enable local adaptation to disaster events. The purpose of this article is to introduce the basic concept of disaster risk reduction so that it can be applied to preventing and mitigating the negative effects of climate change and to examine the role of community-focused public health as a means for lessening human vulnerability and, as a result, the overall risk of climate-related disasters.

  16. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

    2013-10-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

  17. Vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora

    2015-01-01

    This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to

  18. Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Schueler, Silvio; Falk, Wolfgang; Koskela, Jarkko; Lefèvre, François; Bozzano, Michele; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C.

    2014-01-01

    A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species p...

  19. Social vulnerability to climate-induced natural disasters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This paper conducts an analysis of the socioeconomic determinants of Vietnam's cross-provincial variations in natural disaster vulnerability. The purpose is twofold: (i) to capture disaggregated vulnerability variations normally obscured by national statistics, thereby providing more nuanced...... insights into Vietnam's vulnerability to natural disasters; and (ii) to take advantage of the fact that the overall political system and key institutional structures to a large extent are constant across Vietnam's provinces, which makes the analysis a novel addition to the many disaster studies based...

  20. The changing climate and human vulnerability in north-central Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret N. Angula

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available North-central Namibia is more vulnerable to effects of climate change and variability. Combined effects of environmental degradation, social vulnerability to poverty and a changing climate will compromise subsistence farming in north-central Namibia (NCN. This will make subsistence and small-scale farmers in the region more vulnerable to projected changes in the climate system. Thus, the aim of this article was to examine factors contributing to subsistence farmers’ vulnerability to impacts of climate change. The article further discusses different aspects of human vulnerability and existing adaptation strategies in response to impacts of climate related disasters experienced over the past three to four decades in NCN. Qualitative and quantitative research approaches and methodology were employed to obtain information from subsistence farmers in north-central Namibia. The sociodemographic characteristics of Ohangwena, Oshana and Omusati Region reveals high levels of unemployment, high adult and elderly population and high dependency on agricultural livelihood system. These indicators help understand levels of household vulnerability. The study concludes that households interviewed revealed low levels of adaptive capacity due to exposure to climate risks and combined effects of social, political and cultural factors. This article provided an understanding that is required to inform the adaptation pathways relevant for NCN.

  1. Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangpenchan, R.

    2011-12-01

    This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

  2. Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

  3. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  4. Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

  5. Urban resilience: Helping vulnerable city dwellers adapt to climate ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-03-06

    Mar 6, 2018 ... As cities expand, climate change compounds the stress on poor communities that already ... Ensure that our research partners are engaging with the best international networks on urban climate ... Siblings paddling to school.

  6. Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BRO OKOJIE

    and protocols that control climate variability and change. Keywords: ... internal processes within the climate system. (internal ... adverse effects on the agricultural sector of the ... information and technology, social capital, ... Not accounting for.

  7. Vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic: a case study from Arctic Bay, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ford, J.D.; Smit, B.; Wandel, J. [University of Guelph, Ontario (Canada). Department of Geography

    2006-05-15

    This paper develops a vulnerability-based approach to characterize the human implications of climate change in Arctic Bay, Canada. It focuses on community vulnerabilities associated with resource harvesting and the processes through which people adapt to them in the context of livelihood assets, constraints, and outside influences. Inuit in Arctic Bay have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of changing climate-related exposures. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in seasonal hunting cycles, some modern technologies, and economic support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity, and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities in certain sections of the community. (author)

  8. Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Ray, Andrea J; Noon, Barry R

    2017-11-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water

  9. Climate Change and Nigerian Soils: Vulnerability, Impact and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article reviewed the impact of climate change on our soils and suggested measures to combat or mitigate its negative effects on sustainable soil productivity. Climate change occurs when a situation in which a change in climate continues in one direction at a rapid rate and for an unusual long period of time. The article ...

  10. The double tragedy of agriculture vulnerability to climate variability in Africa: How vulnerable is smallholder agriculture to rainfall variability in Ghana?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel K. Derbile

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This article analysed vulnerability of smallholder agriculture to climate variability, particularly the alternating incidences of drought and heavy precipitation events in Ghana. Although there is an unmet need for understanding the linkages between climate change and livelihoods, the urgent need for climate change adaptation planning (CCAP in response to climate change makes vulnerability assessment even more compelling in development research. The data for analysis were collected from two complementary studies. These included a regional survey in the Upper West Region and an in-depth study in three selected communities in the Sissala East District. The results showed that smallholder agriculture is significantly vulnerable to climate variability in the region and that three layers of vulnerability can be identified in a ladder of vulnerability. Firstly, farmers are confronted with the double tragedy of droughts and heavy precipitation events, which adversely affect both crops and livestock. Secondly, farmers have to decide on crops for adaptation, but each option – whether indigenous crops, new early-maturing crops or genetically modified crops – predisposes farmers to a different set of risks. Finally, the overall impact is a higher-level vulnerability, namely the risk of total livelihood failure and food insecurity. The article recommended CCAP and an endogenous development (ED approach to addressing agriculture vulnerability to climate variability within the framework of decentralisation and local governance in Ghana. Keywords: Climate variability; agriculture; vulnerability; endogenous development; Ghana

  11. A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub- Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional...... encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential...

  12. Bringing indices of species vulnerability to climate change into geographic space: an assessment across the Coronado national forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer E. Davison; Sharon Coe; Deborah Finch; Erika Rowland; Megan Friggens; Lisa J. Graumlich

    2012-01-01

    Indices that rate the vulnerability of species to climate change in a given area are increasingly used to inform conservation and climate change adaptation strategies. These species vulnerability indices (SVI) are not commonly associated with landscape features that may affect local-scale vulnerability. To do so would increase their utility by allowing managers to...

  13. The Assessment of Vulnerability of Industrial Parks to Climate Change in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, J. E.; Lee, D. K.; Jung, T. Y.; Choi, K. L.; Lee, S. H.

    2014-12-01

    Many countries are developing policy and measures to adapt to climate changes at the national and local levels, but the assessment of vulnerability to climate change and the establishment of countermeasures in the industries considering industrial factors such as worker, infrastructure are insufficient due to the characteristics of diverse processes and fields. In South Korea, the national government provides infrastructures for industrial parks where various companies in manufacturing and other industries are concentrated . Because of their concentration, damages can aggravate in case of natural disasters such as typhoons. In this study, vulnerability indices for climate change were developed and evaluated using climate scenarios for the climate exposure of localized terrential downpour for eight industrial parks. The vulnerability indices were selected and reviewed through literature review and two in-depth interviews with experts in various industries, and the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was conducted by collecting relevant information including the Directory of Industrial Complexes. The vulnerability of each industrial park to climate change was assessed for four time serious such as the base line, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s . As a result, even though the possibility of localized heavy rain was the highest in Yeosu(Southeast coast) at present, but it was predicted that Gwangyang(Southwest coast) will be higher in the future. For the influences of climate including sensitivity, Ulsan Mipo(Southeast coast) is currently under the highest influence of climate, but the Gumi(Inland area) was forecasted to be under the highest influence of climate in the future. As a result of the assessment of vulnerability to climate change including adaptive capacity, Gumi and Myongji Noksan(Southeast coast) were most vulnerable to localized heavy rain. The degree of vulnerability of all the industrial parks except Ulsan and Yeosu was forecasted to increase in the

  14. Vulnerability of cattle production to climate change on U.S. rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matt C. Reeves; Karen E. Bagne

    2016-01-01

    We examined multiple climate change effects on cattle production for U.S. rangelands to estimate relative change and identify sources of vulnerability among seven regions. Climate change effects to 2100 were projected from published models for four elements: forage quantity, vegetation type trajectory, heat stress, and forage variability. Departure of projections from...

  15. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

    2014-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

  16. Regional Farm Diversity Can Reduce Vulnerability of Food Production to Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.A.

    2008-01-01

    Food production must adapt in the face of climate change. In Europe, projected vulnerability of food production to climate change is particularly high in Mediterranean regions. Increasing agricultural diversity has been suggested as an adaptation strategy, but empirical evidence is lacking. We

  17. The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch

    2014-01-01

    Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...

  18. Two key concepts of the society-climate change interface: vulnerability and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnan, Alexandre

    2010-06-01

    Vulnerability and adaptation are two inseparable concepts, each being dependent on the other. Although they are extremely sensitive to the contextual specificities of particular areas, vulnerability reduction and adaptation strategies can only be developed at the interface between different spatial and temporal scales. This leads us to assert that faced with a common threat - climate change -, different types of vulnerability and adaptation exist. The aim of this text is to provide an overview of two concepts that can no longer be ignored in discussions on climate change: vulnerability and adaptation. These are two pillars for analysing both the potential impact of climate change on societies and regions, and also their ability to live with these consequences. We will begin by describing how the interdependence of these two concepts explains the position(s) of present and future societies in the face of climate change impacts. We will then show that they share certain determinants that may themselves provide an appropriate framework for analysis. Finally, we will insist on the fact that these two concepts nevertheless remain extremely difficult to grasp, as they require a multi-scalar and multi-temporal approach to regions, which also explains why they are a relevant response to the challenges posed by climate change. The conclusion will call for wider discussion, reiterating that since their nature is fundamentally linked to the diversity and specificities of regions and societies, we must accept the idea that faced with the same threat - climate change - there are different types of vulnerability and adaptation. (author)

  19. The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

    2013-12-01

    Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand

  20. Vulnerability and adaptation to potential impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omenda, T.O.; Kariuki, J.G.; Mbuthi, P.N.

    1998-01-01

    Climate in Kenya is controlled by the seasonal southward and northward movements of the Inter-Tropical Convergence zone (ITCZ).The effects of ITCZ produces two rainy seasons namely the 'long rains' in April/May and the 'short rains' in October/November. Following the build up of greenhouse gases such as carborn dioxide and methane in the earth's atmosphere, a variety of changes is expected in climatic conditions. The study analyses the sensivity of the lower Tana Basin to climate change while specific objectives include: to determine the effects of climate change on water supply in Tana River Basin; to assess the posible effect of climate change on the ground water resourse in the basin; to make some suggestions on possible adaptation measures that may be adopted to cope with the possible impacts of climate change for the Tana Basin

  1. Community vulnerability to climate change in the context of other exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk, Nunavut

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Tozer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change in the Canadian north is, and will be, managed by communities that are already experiencing social, political, economic and other environmental changes. Hence, there is a need to understand vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple exposure-sensitivities at the community level. This article responds to this perceived knowledge need based on a case study of the community of Kugluktuk in Nunavut, Canada. An established approach for vulnerability assessment is used to identify current climatic and non-climatic exposure-sensitivities along with their associated contemporary adaptation strategies. This assessment of current vulnerability is used as a basis to consider Kugluktuk's possible vulnerability to climatic change in the future. Current climate-related exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk relate primarily to subsistence harvesting and community infrastructure. Thinner and less stable ice conditions and unpredictable weather patterns are making travel and harvesting more dangerous and some community infrastructure is sensitive to permafrost melt and extreme weather events (e.g., flash floods. The ability of individuals and households to adapt to these and other climatic exposure-sensitivities is influenced by non-climatic factors that condition adaptive capacity including substance abuse, the erosion of traditional knowledge and youth suicide. These and other non-climatic factors often underpin adaptive capacity to deal with and adapt to changing conditions and must be considered in an assessment of vulnerability. This research argues that Northern communities are challenged by multiple exposure-sensitivities—beyond just those posed by climate—and effective adaptation to climate change requires consideration if not resolution of socio-economic and other issues in communities.

  2. Identifying bird and reptile vulnerabilities to climate change in the southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tomasz; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Nowak, Erika M.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Ironside, Kirsten E.; van Riper, Charles; Peters, Michael; Truettner, Charles; Cole, Kenneth L.

    2016-07-06

    Current and future breeding ranges of 15 bird and 16 reptile species were modeled in the Southwestern United States. Rather than taking a broad-scale, vulnerability-assessment approach, we created a species distribution model (SDM) for each focal species incorporating climatic, landscape, and plant variables. Baseline climate (1940–2009) was characterized with Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data and future climate with global-circulation-model data under an A1B emission scenario. Climatic variables included monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation; landscape variables included terrain ruggedness, soil type, and insolation; and plant variables included trees and shrubs commonly associated with a focal species. Not all species-distribution models contained a plant, but if they did, we included a built-in annual migration rate for more accurate plant-range projections in 2039 or 2099. We conducted a group meta-analysis to (1) determine how influential each variable class was when averaged across all species distribution models (birds or reptiles), and (2) identify the correlation among contemporary (2009) habitat fragmentation and biological attributes and future range projections (2039 or 2099). Projected changes in bird and reptile ranges varied widely among species, with one-third of the ranges predicted to expand and two-thirds predicted to contract. A group meta-analysis indicated that climatic variables were the most influential variable class when averaged across all models for both groups, followed by landscape and plant variables (birds), or plant and landscape variables (reptiles), respectively. The second part of the meta-analysis indicated that numerous contemporary habitat-fragmentation (for example, patch isolation) and biological-attribute (for example, clutch size, longevity) variables were significantly correlated with the magnitude of projected range changes for birds and reptiles. Patch isolation was

  3. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. Copyright © 2016

  4. Intensifying Insecurities: The impact of climate change on vulnerability to human trafficking in the Indian Sundarbans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Molinari

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite an enormous amount of attention paid to the factors that shape vulnerability to human trafficking, such as poverty and a lack of economic opportunity, the debate of evidence for what enables these factors to exist in the first place is relatively less explored. Presently, discussions of the relationship between climate change and human insecurity have been marginal to broader debates about vulnerability to trafficking. This paper argues that this signifies a gap in our understanding of the underlying drivers that push individuals and communities into situations where vulnerability to trafficking amplifies, but also that increase the pull of risky migration pathways and exploitative work situations. This paper proceeds by examining and problematising dominant conceptualisations of vulnerability in human trafficking and climate change discourses. Next, it presents a case study of the Sundarbans region of India to highlight how climate change impacts compound and exacerbate the same factors that shape vulnerability to human trafficking—including environmental degradation, loss of livelihood, destitution, and forced migration. Lastly, it argues for enhanced attention to climate change-related insecurity as evidence of vulnerability to trafficking and outlines what such insights can bring to anti-trafficking efforts.

  5. Measuring Sexual Violence on Campus: Climate Surveys and Vulnerable Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Heer, Brooke; Jones, Lynn

    2017-01-01

    Since the 2014 "Not Alone" report on campus sexual assault, the use of climate surveys to measure sexual violence on campuses across the United States has increased considerably. The current study utilizes a quasi meta-analysis approach to examine the utility of general campus climate surveys, which include a measure of sexual violence,…

  6. Assessing Crop Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Southwest Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    The USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is one of ten Climate Hubs and Sub-hubs established in 2014. The Hub region includes Arizona, California (partnering with the California Sub-Hub), Nevada, New Mexico and Utah.  Beyond the mainland States, the SW hub also serves Hawaii and the US affiliated Pac...

  7. Developing an In-depth Understanding of Elderly Adult's Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Jason L; Gruber, James S; Horton, Bill

    2018-05-08

    Recent reports highlight the vulnerability of elderly adults to climate change, yet limited research has focused on this topic. To address this, the purpose of this study was to develop an in-depth understanding of elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change within the context of a specific community. A case study methodology utilizing a community-based action research approach was employed to engage elderly participants living in Bridgeport, CT, in exploring their vulnerability to current and predicted climate stressors with a focus on extreme heat, flooding and storms, and air pollution. This research identifies personal characteristics that interact with contextual factors to influence elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change. Personal characteristics include health, economic, and social considerations. Contextual factors include the adequacy of emergency preparedness measures, transportation resources, and coping and recovery resources. As a result of the interplay of these characteristics and factors, predicted climate changes could have serious consequences for Bridgeport's elderly adults. This research provides a contextualized and detailed illustration of how climate change could overwhelm elderly adult's adaptive capacity and highlights the need for support services to provide safeguards. The issues and concerns raised may bear similarities to other locations, especially urban settings facing similar climate stressors with similar socioeconomic conditions. The findings suggest a need for further research to improve our understanding and serve as the basis for collaborative adaptation planning that engages elderly communities with local governments and a broad coalition of partners to keep elders safe.

  8. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

    2015-12-04

    Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

  9. Groundwater vulnerability to climate change: A review of the assessment methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslam, Rana Ammar; Shrestha, Sangam; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad

    2018-01-15

    Impacts of climate change on water resources, especially groundwater, can no longer be hidden. These impacts are further exacerbated under the integrated influence of climate variability, climate change and anthropogenic activities. The degree of impact varies according to geographical location and other factors leading systems and regions towards different levels of vulnerability. In the recent past, several attempts have been made in various regions across the globe to quantify the impacts and consequences of climate and non-climate factors in terms of vulnerability to groundwater resources. Firstly, this paper provides a structured review of the available literature, aiming to critically analyse and highlight the limitations and knowledge gaps involved in vulnerability (of groundwater to climate change) assessment methodologies. The effects of indicator choice and the importance of including composite indicators are then emphasised. A new integrated approach for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change is proposed to successfully address those limitations. This review concludes that the choice of indicator has a significant role in defining the reliability of computed results. The effect of an individual indicator is also apparent but the consideration of a combination (variety) of indicators may give more realistic results. Therefore, in future, depending upon the local conditions and scale of the study, indicators from various groups should be chosen. Furthermore, there are various assumptions involved in previous methodologies, which limit their scope by introducing uncertainty in the calculated results. These limitations can be overcome by implementing the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, Karen L.; Delamater, Paul L.; Boules, Caroline R.; Upperman, Crystal R.; Mitchell, Clifford S.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages. PMID:26690184

  11. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen L. Akerlof

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126. We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

  12. IMPACT, VULNERABILITY AND INURING TO THE CLIMATE CHANGES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazilu Mirela; Buce Gabriela; Ciobanu Mariana [University of Craiova, University Centre of Drobeta Turnu Severin, Mehedinti (Romania)

    2008-09-30

    The adverse effects of the climate changes caused or not by the human being are on the international politic agenda for more than a decade. All over the world the discussions on the climate changes are intensifying and heading new directions, with a larger opening. The climate changes were subject of the agenda of the most important regional and international meetings this year, many of these asking the ending with positive results of the U.N.O. Conference on Climate Changes that is taking place these days in Bali, between the 3rd and 14th of December 2007. The Bali Conference will give the possibility of getting involved in the future into the multilateral processes of climate change under the auspices of the United Nations and into the process of shaping a global approaching plan of the climate changes. The climate changes represent one of the major challenges in our century--a complex field about what we have to improve our knowledge and understanding in order to take immediate and correct actions for a lasting and efficient approach from the point of view of the costs and challenges in the climate changes field respecting the precaution and climate changes inuring principle. The inuring is a process which allows societies to learn to react to the risks associated to the climate changes. These risks are real and already present in many systems and essential sectors of the human existence--the hydrological resources, alimentary security and health. The inuring options are multiple and vary from the technical ones--protection against the water gown level or dwellings protected against the floods by being hanged up on pontoons--to the change of the behavior of the individuals, such as the reduce of the water or energy consumption and/or a more efficient consumption. Other strategies suppose: signaling systems of the meteorological phenomenon, improvements of the risk management, ways to assure and preserve the biodiversity in order to reduce the impact of the

  13. Country Stakes in Climate Change Negotiations. Two Dimensions of Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buys, P.; Deichmann, U.; Meisner, C.; That, Thao Ton; Wheeler, D.

    2007-01-01

    Using a comprehensive geo-referenced database of indicators relating to global change and energy, the paper assesses countries' likely attitudes with respect to international treaties that regulate carbon emissions. The authors distinguish between source and impact vulnerability and classify countries according to these dimensions. The findings show clear differences in the factors that determine likely negotiating positions. This analysis and the resulting detailed, country level information help to explain the incentives required to make the establishment of such agreements more likely.

  14. Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, C

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available and variability. It presents a selection of information, translated to communicate climate change processes, key existing and emerging trends, impacts and the possible measures that could be taken to reduce these impacts....

  15. Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erich Striessnig

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the still uncertain dangers associated with future climate. The empirical evidence presented for a cross-country time series of factors associated with past natural disaster fatalities since 1980 in 125 countries confirms this overriding importance of education in reducing impacts. We also present new projections of populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment to 2050, thus providing an appropriate tool for anticipating societies' future adaptive capacities based on alternative education scenarios associated with different policies.

  16. Climate change vulnerability index for South African aquifers

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    received considerable attention from hydrologists during the past decade (e.g. .... ground water trends in response to human-induced climate change: ... Figure 6. Recharge function based on precipitation and slope percentage. The current ...

  17. Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

    2016-03-01

    Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

  18. Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comte, Lise; Olden, Julian D.

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is a mounting threat to biological diversity, compromising ecosystem structure and function, and undermining the delivery of essential services worldwide. As the magnitude and speed of climate change accelerates, greater understanding of the taxonomy and geography of climatic vulnerability is critical to guide effective conservation action. However, many uncertainties remain regarding the degree and variability of climatic risk within entire clades and across vast ecosystem boundaries. Here we integrate physiological estimates of thermal sensitivity for 2,960 ray-finned fishes with future climatic exposure, and demonstrate that global patterns of vulnerability differ substantially between freshwater and marine realms. Our results suggest that climatic vulnerability for freshwater faunas will be predominantly determined by elevated levels of climatic exposure predicted for the Northern Hemisphere, whereas marine faunas in the tropics will be the most at risk, reflecting their higher intrinsic sensitivity. Spatial overlap between areas of high physiological risk and high human impacts, together with evidence of low past rates of evolution in upper thermal tolerance, highlights the urgency of global conservation actions and policy initiatives if harmful climate effects on the world’s fishes are to be mitigated in the future.

  19. Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

    OpenAIRE

    Jianjun Huai

    2016-01-01

    Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an ?integrative typology? of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the ?5W1H...

  20. Evaluating the impact of climate on forest vulnerability to fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Živanović Stanimir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of the threat of forest fires usually includes identification of factors and quantification of risk levels. This work presents an approach to modeling the risk of forest fires caused by climate impacts. Climate Impact Assessment is based on the significance of air temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. The analysis is based on the meteorological data obtained from 26 meteorological stations in Serbia for the period from 1981 to 2010. The analysis is used to predict the areas where the expected rate of fire is high. The method is simple; it describes the key variables for the risk under climate impacts and the spatial pattern of risk. It is suitable for operational use by authorized services. The risk of forest fire is classified as negligible, small, medium and large. The database and analysis results were used to build the matrix of risk assessment of forest fires in Serbia. A great part of the territory of Serbia is relatively highly sensitive to forest fires. The lowest consequences of climate impacts are visible in the areas of Kopaonik and Zlatibor. In Serbia, there is no place where there is a negligible risk of fire. Further research, especially in terms of the relationship between climate change and the adaptive capacity of existing forest ecosystems, species and existing genotypes, is urgently needed in Serbia.

  1. Vulnerabilities to climate change of Massachusetts animal species of greatest conservation need

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith, Hector; Morelli, Toni L.

    2017-01-01

    Over the last decade, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has addressed the potential and actual impacts of climate change on state flora and fauna. The state’s involvement began in 2007 when, led by the Division of Fisheries and Wildlife (DFW) and assisted by Manomet Center for Con-servation Research, it carried out one of the first habitat vulnerability assessments in North America (Manomet, 2010). The new methods and processes that resulted were later applied to vulnerability assessments in North America and elsewhere. In 2011, the state assisted the North-eastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) in organizing and leading a pio-neering three-year, thirteen-state research effort to evaluate the vulnerabilities of fish and wild-life habitats to climate change in the northeast, from Maine south to West Virginia (NEAFWA, 2012). This focus on climate change vulnerabilities led to three important early realizations: (1) simply categorizing and scoring vulnerabilities might not lead to better conservation outcomes. It was vital to also understand why some resources were more or less vulnerable to climate change in order to identify potential intervention points on which conservation actions and strategies could be based. (2) simply producing research results was not enough; these results had to be cast as specific conservation actions. Moreover (3), these actions needed to be communicated in a useful form to conservation “actors”, such as state agencies, land trusts, land managers, etc. These real-izations led to the next step on the Commonwealth’s journey to effective conservation in an age of climate change - the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool (CAT).

  2. Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan E. Suk

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2 levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

  3. Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suk, Jonathan E; Ebi, Kristie L; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-02-21

    A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

  4. Comparison of Flood Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change by Construction Frameworks for a Composite Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Seok Lee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As extreme weather conditions due to climate change can cause deadly flood damages all around the world, a role of the flood vulnerability assessment has become recognized as one of the preemptive measures in nonstructural flood mitigation strategies. Although the flood vulnerability is most commonly assessed by a composite indicator compiled from multidimensional phenomena and multiple conflicting criteria associated with floods, directly or indirectly, it has been often overlooked that the construction frameworks and processes can have a significant influence on the flood vulnerability indicator outcomes. This study has, therefore, compared the flood vulnerability ranking orders for the 54 administrative districts in the Nakdong River Watershed of the Korean Peninsula, ranked from composite indicators by different frameworks and multi-attribute utility functions for combining the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and coping, presented in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The results show that the different aggregation components and utility functions under the same proxy variable system can lead to larger volatility of flood vulnerability rankings than expected. It is concluded that the vulnerability indicator needs to be derived from all three assessment components by a multiplicative utility function for a desirable flood vulnerability assessment to climate change.

  5. Vulnerability and Tradeoffs of Dairy Farmers to the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, A.; Gupta, J.; R, D.

    2016-12-01

    In recent years climate variability has threatened the sustainability of dairy animals and dairy farming in India. The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of Dairy Based Livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change in the Western Ghat ecosystem and for this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to Climate Change underlying the principles of IPCC, using 28 indicators and trade-off between vulnerability and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through Participatory Rural Appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The index score of dairy based livelihoods of many regions were negative. Lanja taluka of Maharashtra has highest level of vulnerability with overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. There is also significant tradeoff between milk production and components of LVI. Thus our research will provide an important basis for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies for alarming situation and decision making for farmers to minimize the risk of dairy sector to climate variability.

  6. Assessing the vulnerability of infrastructure to climate change on the Islands of Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, M. S.; Kawasaki, A.

    2015-06-01

    Pacific Islanders have been exposed to risks associated with climate change. Samoa, as one of the Pacific Islands, is prone to climatic hazards that will likely increase in the coming decades, affecting coastal communities and infrastructure around the islands. Climate models do not predict a reduction of such disaster events in the future in Samoa; indeed, most predict an increase. This paper identifies key infrastructure and their functions and status in order to provide an overall picture of relative vulnerability to climate-related stresses of such infrastructure on the island. By reviewing existing reports as well as holding a series of consultation meetings, a list of critical infrastructure was developed and shared with stakeholders for their consideration. An indicator-based vulnerability model (SIVM) was developed in collaboration with stakeholders to assess the vulnerability of selected infrastructure systems on the Samoan Islands. Damage costs were extracted from the Cyclone Evan recovery needs document. Additionally, data on criticality and capacity to repair damage were collected from stakeholders. Having stakeholder perspectives on these two issues was important because (a) criticality of a given infrastructure could be viewed differently among different stakeholders, and (b) stakeholders were the best available source (in this study) to estimate the capacity to repair non-physical damage to such infrastructure. Analysis of the results suggested a ranking of sectors from the most vulnerable to least vulnerable are: the transportation sector, the power sector, the water supply sector and the sewerage system.

  7. Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

  8. Adaptation opportunities and maladaptive outcomes in climate vulnerability hotspots of northern Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Antwi-Agyei

    Full Text Available How climate change adaptation practices can constrain development and deliver maladaptive outcomes in vulnerability hotspots is yet to be explored in-depth using case study analyses. This paper explores the effects of climate change coping and adaptation responses in three case study villages across the Central Gonja district of northern Ghana. The study addresses the following research questions: i What are the key climatic and non-climatic stressors confronting households in northern Ghanaian communities? ii How are households adapting to climatic and non-climatic stressors? and iii What are the outcomes of these coping and adaptation responses on development? The study employs a mixed-method approach including key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household questionnaire surveys. Data identified socioeconomic stressors including a lack of access to (and high cost of farm inputs, labour shortages and population growth. Climatic stressors include erratic rainfall, high temperature, droughts and floods. Climatic and non-climatic stressors interact to affect agricultural practices and related livelihoods. The study identified various adaptation measures including extensification and intensification of agriculture, temporary migration, planting of drought resistant varieties, irrigation, and livelihood diversification. We show that many coping measures (e.g. livelihood diversifications activities such as selling of firewood and charcoal production and adaptation responses (including intensification, extensification and irrigation currently deliver maladaptive outcomes, resulting in lock-ins that could exacerbate future climate vulnerabilities. The paper contributes to the growing literature on adaptation and climate risk management by providing empirical evidence showing how coping and adaptations measures can deliver maladaptive outcomes in vulnerable communities. Keywords: Maladaptation, Climate change and variability

  9. National and Local Vulnerability to Climate-Related Disasters in Latin America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Olivier; Rossing, Tine

    2012-01-01

    are main determinants of natural disaster mortality in Latin America. Locally, the region's poor are particularly susceptible to climate-related natural hazards. As a result of their limited access to capital, adaptation based on social assets constitutes an effective coping strategy. Evidence from Bolivia......The Latin American region is particularly prone to climate-related natural hazards. However, this article argues that natural hazards are only partly to blame for the region's vulnerability to natural disasters with quantitative evidence suggesting instead that income per capita and inequality...... and Belize illustrates the importance of social assets in protecting the most vulnerable against natural disasters....

  10. Climate risk and vulnerability: A handbook for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, Claire L

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available relevant to a number of studies in the region and has been widely disseminated in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe (as the core part of customised training courses), as well as in other countries through related events. Since... to continue with climate change. Changes in SST have important implications for the upwelling strength in the Benguela Current system as well as the Agulhas Current, both of which are important drivers of climate for southern Africa. Figure 1.6: Observed...

  11. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, K.; Kuikman, P.J.; Veraart, J.A.; Van Walsum, P.E.V.; Westein, E.; Verhagen, A.; Daan, N.; Van Ierland, E.C.; Szoenyi, J.; De Groot, R.S.; Van Vliet, A.; Martens, P.; Amelung, B.; Huynen, M.

    2002-01-01

    In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is warming and that regional climates are changing. The changes include alterations in rainfall pattern and intensities, sea level, and the frequencies of extreme weather events. Climate changes will not just have global effects, they will also occur regionally. The consequences will be felt and dealt with in our own region. In addition to studies at the European level, a study entitled 'An integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands' was carried out

  12. Recent Advances in Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Studies in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D. R.; Moser, S. C.; Hanemann, M.; Pittiglio, S.

    2010-12-01

    The State of California is committed to preparing periodic climate change impacts and adaptation assessments to inform and develop policy in the State. The most recent assessment was released late in 2009 and a new vulnerability and adaptation assessment is underway for release in late 2011. Both assessments use IPCC climate simulations that were statistically downscaled to a horizontal resolution of about 12 Km. The 2009 California assessment attempted to translate some impacts and adaptation options into monetary terms which introduced additional uncertainties. The 2011 California assessment combines a set of coordinated statewide and regional/local studies because many adaptation options, though informed by state and national policies, will be implemented at regional and local levels. The 2011 assessment expands the number of climate simulations that are employed in order to form a fuller estimate of the potential envelope of climate change and its impacts in the state. It also introduces a subset of dynamically downscaled scenarios to understand how well statistical relationships, developed using historical data, hold up in future climate regimes. Investigations are on-going to translate the ensemble of climate simulations and to begin to attach probabilities to the scenarios using subjective and objective techniques. In addition to advances in climate simulations and downscaling techniques, the new vulnerability and adaptation assessment also increasingly integrates social science approaches to assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation options. This presentation will illustrate results from the 2009 assessment and describe the design and initial implementation of the 2011 assessment.

  13. Vulnerability and adaptation of rain fed agriculture to climate change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EJIRO

    2Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es salaam, Box 35097 Dar es ... Minimum temperature increased faster (R2 = 0.68, p<0.001) while maximum ... cash crops, increased insects and pests and eventually low income and food insecurity. ... negative impacts of climate change and variability in the study area.

  14. On the Vulnerability of Water Limited Ecosystems to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly K. Caylor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Society is facing growing environmental problems that require new research efforts to understand the way ecosystems operate and survive, and their mutual relationships with the hydrologic cycle. In this respect, ecohydrology suggests a renewed interdisciplinary approach that aims to provide a better comprehension of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems. With this aim, a coupled hydrological/ecological model is adopted to describe simultaneously vegetation pattern evolution and hydrological water budget at the basin scale using as test site the Upper Rio Salado basin (Sevilleta, NM, USA. The hydrological analyses have been carried out using a recently formulated framework for the water balance at the daily level linked with a spatial model for the description of the spatial organization of vegetation. This enables quantitatively assessing the effects on soil water availability on future climatic scenarios. Results highlighted that the relationship between climatic forcing (water availability and vegetation patterns is strongly non-linear. This implies, under some specific conditions which depend on the ecosystem characteristics, small changes in climatic conditions may produce significant transformation of the vegetation patterns.

  15. Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems in Africa: Vulnerability and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In Africa, while some countries are classified as water scarce due to successive back to back drought years having devastating effects on ground water quality, others in the coastal zones, particularly gulf of Guinea where the Niger Delta is located, could be inundated due to climate change induced sea-level rise.

  16. Gendered vulnerability to climate change in Limpopo Province, South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vincent, K

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available It is well-known that women in developing countries tend to be more dependent on natural resources than men, and that female-headed households tend to rely more on agricultural livelihoods than male-headed households. Climate change is projected...

  17. Vulnerability of crops to climate change in Northeastern Austria

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Thaler, S.; Eitzinger, J.; Rischbeck, P. M.; Dubrovský, Martin; Trnka, M.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 1 (2010), s. 50-61 ISSN 0861-0762 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Climate change * crops * Austria * weather generator Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  18. The vulnerability of wind power to climate change in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira de Lucena, Andre Frossard; Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Schaeffer, Roberto; Dutra, Ricardo Marques

    2010-01-01

    The availability and reliability of wind power depend a great deal on current and future climate conditions, which may vary in light of possible global climate change (GCC). Long-term energy planning, however, does not normally take possible future GCC into consideration, which may turn out to be a risky exercise. In the case of Brazil, the untapped wind power potential is known to be impressive, provided that climate conditions remain the same over time. The focus of this study is to analyze some possible impacts of GCC on the wind power potential of Brazil, by simulating wind conditions associated with the IPCC A2 and B2 Scenarios. Results based on the HadCM3 general circulation model and the analysis of the country's wind database indicate that the wind power potential in Brazil would not be jeopardized in the future due to possible new climate conditions. On the contrary, improved wind conditions are expected, particularly in the Northeast coast of the country. Therefore, investments in wind power generation can be an interesting way to expand renewable energy production in Brazil. However, given the large uncertainties associated with GCC models and scenarios, the findings of this paper should be viewed as a possibility rather than as a projection. (author)

  19. Vulnerability of amphibians to climate change: implications for rangeland management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch; Megan M. Friggens

    2011-01-01

    Many amphibian populations have declined drastically in recent years due to a large number of factors including the emerging threat of climate change (Wake 2007). Rangelands provide important habitat for amphibians. In addition to natural wetlands, stock tanks and other artificial water catchments provide habitat for many amphibian species (Euliss et al. 2004).

  20. Vulnerability of social-ecological system to climate change in Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakinuma, K.; Yanagawa, A.; Sasaki, T.; Kanae, S.

    2017-12-01

    Coping with future climate changes are one of the most important issues in the world. IPCC (2014) suggested that vulnerability and exposure of social-ecological systems to extreme climatic events (hazard) determine the impact of climate changes. Although the schematic framework is widely accepted, there are high uncertainty of vulnerability of social and ecological systems and it makes difficult to examine it in empirical researches. Our objective is to assess the climate change impact on the social-ecological system in Mongolia. We review researches about trends of climate (Hazard), vegetation, pastoral mobility (Vulnerability) and livestock distribution (Exposure) across Mongolia Climate trends are critical for last several decades and thus hazard may be increasing in Mongolia. Temperature is increasing with high confidence in all regions. Precipitation are slightly decreasing with medium confidence across the country, especially in northern and central regions. Exposure would also be increasing especially in northern, central and western regions, because livestock population are concentrating these regions after 1990. Generally, less productive ecosystems (e.g. few plant productivity and less species richness) are vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as drought. In that sense, southern region may be more vulnerable to climate changes than other regions. However, if we focus on pastoral mobility forms for drought, we get contractive conclusions. Pastoralists in southern region keep mobility to variable and scarce vegetation while pastoralists in northern region less mobile because of stable and much vegetation. Exclusive managements in northern region is able to maximized the number of livestock only under stable precipitation regimes. But at the same time, it is difficult to escape from hazardous areas when it is drought. Thus, in term of rangeland management, northern region would be more vulnerable to increase of drought intensity. Although northern and

  1. A Brazilian Vulnerability Index Towards Natural Disasters and Climatic Change - Flashfloods and Landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debortoli, N. S.; Camarinha, P. I., Sr.; Marengo, J. A.; Rodrigues, R.

    2015-12-01

    There are some evidences that hydrological climate extremes events have become more frequent an intense in the last decades due to climatic change. In Brazil, flashfloods and landslides were responsible for 74% of the deaths related to natural disasters in 1991-2010 period. In this sense, climate change could be considered a threat which can further increase these numbers, if actions of adaptation and reducing vulnerability are not taken. To evaluate Brazil's vulnerability hotspots to these disasters, two vulnerability indexes were developed using three sets of variables: (1) climate, with IPCC climate extreme indexes; (2) environmental, including land use, drainage systems, relief map, slope, road density and hydrography variables; (3) socioeconomic, including Gini coefficient, HDI (Human Development Index), housing conditions and poverty-related index. The variables were normalized on a scale between 0 to 1 and related using Map Algebra technique (ArcGIS). As part of the effort to contribute to the elaboration of the Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and to contribute to the assessment of impacts on strategic country's issues, simulations at higher resolution were carried out using Eta-20km RCM (Regional Climate Model) nested with two global climate models: HadGEM ES and MIROC 5 (INPE Brazilian National Institute for Space Research). For the baseline period of 1961-1990, the vulnerability indexes were adjusted by an iterative process, which was validated by comparing it to the Brazilian National Disasters Data. The same indexes found at baseline were used to estimate the vulnerability until the end of the XXI century, using the 4.5 and 8.5 IPCC/AR5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. The results indicate a large increase in Brazil's vulnerability to landslides mainly in coastal zone, southern states, high lands of southeast states, and along the Amazon River due to climatic

  2. Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse

  3. Regional Water System Vulnerabilities and Strengths for Unavoidable Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.; Christian-Smith, J.; Cooley, H.

    2011-12-01

    A wide range of options are available to help water systems prepare and adapt for unavoidable climate impacts, but these options vary depending on region, climatic conditions, economic status, and technical infrastructure in place. Drawing on case studies from the United States, India, and elsewhere, and from both urban and agricultural water systems, risks to water supply and quality are evaluated and summarized and categories of responses to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation policies are reviewed. Among the issues to be discussed are characteristics unique to developing country cities, such as the predominance of informal actors in the water sector. The formal, or government sector, which often exclusively manages water access and distribution in developed country cities, is only one among many players in the water sector in developing country cities. Informal access to water includes direct access by individuals through private groundwater systems, private water markets using vendors or sales of bottled water, and rainwater harvesting systems on individual homes. In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, the impacts of climate change on water will be strongly felt. This complicates planning for water supply and demand and risks increasing already prevalent water insecurity, especially for urban poor. In wealthier countries, any planning for water-related climate impacts tends to take the form of "business as usual" responses, such as efforts to expand supply with new infrastructure, manage demand through conservation programs, or simply put off addressing the problem to the next generation of managers and users. These approaches can be effective, but also risk missing unusual, non-linear, or threshold impacts. Examples of more informed and innovative efforts to substantively address climate change risks will be presented.

  4. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  5. Climate change and marine fisheries: Least developed countries top global index of vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blasiak, Robert; Spijkers, Jessica; Tokunaga, Kanae; Pittman, Jeremy; Yagi, Nobuyuki; Österblom, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries have the potential to negatively influence a wide range of socio-economic factors, including food security, livelihoods and public health, and even to reshape development trajectories and spark transboundary conflict. Yet there is considerable variability in the vulnerability of countries around the world to these effects. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for vulnerability, we first construct aggregate indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using 12 primary variables. Seven out of the ten most vulnerable countries on the resulting index are Small Island Developing States, and the top quartile of the index includes countries located in Africa (17), Asia (7), North America and the Caribbean (4) and Oceania (8). More than 87% of least developed countries are found within the top half of the vulnerability index, while the bottom half includes all but one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. This is primarily due to the tremendous variation in countries' adaptive capacity, as no such trends are evident from the exposure or sensitivity indices. A negative correlation exists between vulnerability and per capita carbon emissions, and the clustering of states at different levels of development across the vulnerability index suggests growing barriers to meeting global commitments to reducing inequality, promoting human well-being and ensuring sustainable cities and communities. The index provides a useful tool for prioritizing the allocation of climate finance, as well as activities aimed at capacity building and the transfer of marine technology.

  6. GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

  7. A vulnerability assessment of fish and invertebrates to climate change on the northeast US Continental Shelf (NCEI Accession 0154384)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data represent two outputs from the Northeast Fisheries Climate Vulnerability assessment. The first are the biological sensitivity and climate exposure scores...

  8. Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Sadia Mariam; Awan, Haroon; Khan, Niazullah

    2012-09-03

    Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and

  9. Climate program "stone soup": Assessing climate change vulnerabilities in the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, J. S.; Poe, A.; van Pelt, T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is already affecting the Bering Sea and Aleutian Island region of Alaska. Past and present marine research across a broad spectrum of disciplines is shedding light on what sectors of the ecosystem and the human dimension will be most impacted. In a grassroots approach to extend existing research efforts, leveraging recently completed downscaled climate projections for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, we convened a team of 30 researchers-- with expertise ranging from anthropology to zooplankton to marine mammals-- to assess climate projections in the context of their expertise. This Aleutian-Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ABCVA) began with researchers working in five teams to evaluate the vulnerabilities of key species and ecosystem services relative to projected changes in climate. Each team identified initial vulnerabilities for their focal species or services, and made recommendations for further research and information needs that would help managers and communities better understand the implications of the changing climate in this region. Those draft recommendations were shared during two focused, public sessions held within two hub communities for the Bering and Aleutian region: Unalaska and St. Paul. Qualitative insights about local concerns and observations relative to climate change were collected during these sessions, to be compared to the recommendations being made by the ABCVA team of researchers. Finally, we used a Structured Decision Making process to prioritize the recommendations of participating scientists, and integrate the insights shared during our community sessions. This work brought together residents, stakeholders, scientists, and natural resource managers to collaboratively identify priorities for addressing current and expected future impacts of climate change. Recommendations from this project will be incorporated into future research efforts of the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation

  10. Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

    2012-12-01

    As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential

  11. Climate Change Vulnerability of Army Installations Attributable to Listed and At-Risk Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-12

    T2 ]) (NatureServe 2011), a challenge that will be exacerbated by cli- mate change (Dawson et al. 2011, Ellenwood et al. 2012, Shaw et al. 2021, Urban...stakeholders on climate change chal- lenges. Each of these goals was evaluated in relation to DoD’s plans and operations, training and testing, built...mitigation strategies based on the mag- nitudes of the evaluated factors were summarized. 1.4 Scope The climate change vulnerability assessments within

  12. A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climatemodels examined, the US Southwest including California and...

  13. Health adaptation policy for climate vulnerable groups: a 'critical computational linguistics' analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidel, Bastian M; Bell, Erica

    2014-11-28

    Many countries are developing or reviewing national adaptation policy for climate change but the extent to which these meet the health needs of vulnerable groups has not been assessed. This study examines the adequacy of such policies for nine known climate-vulnerable groups: people with mental health conditions, Aboriginal people, culturally and linguistically diverse groups, aged people, people with disabilities, rural communities, children, women, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people. The study analyses an exhaustive sample of national adaptation policy documents from Annex 1 ('developed') countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 20 documents from 12 countries. A 'critical computational linguistics' method was used involving novel software-driven quantitative mapping and traditional critical discourse analysis. The study finds that references to vulnerable groups are relatively little present or non-existent, as well as poorly connected to language about practical strategies and socio-economic contexts, both also little present. The conclusions offer strategies for developing policy that is better informed by a 'social determinants of health' definition of climate vulnerability, consistent with best practice in the literature and global policy prescriptions.

  14. Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Ronald P. Neilson; James M. Lenihan; Raymond J. Drapek

    2010-01-01

    Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We...

  15. Household vulnerability to climate change: examining perceptions of households of flood risks in Georgetown and Paramaribo

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linnekamp, F.; Koedam, A.; Baud, I.S.A.

    2011-01-01

    The article examines household perceptions of flooding as part of climate change in two low elevation coastal zone cities in the Caribbean. The research examines differences in vulnerability of households as the combined results of socio-economic inequalities in entitlements and exposure to natural

  16. Perceptions of Stereotype Vulnerability, Belonging and Campus Climate by African Americans Attending a Predominately White Institution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Loren Wright

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine of stereotype vulnerability, sense of belonging and campus climate for African American college students at a Predominately White Institution (PWI) in the Southeast. This research used a sociocultural model to explore African American student perceptions at a PWI in the southeast of the United States. This…

  17. Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falke, Jeffrey A.; Flitcroft, Rebecca L; Dunham, Jason B.; McNyset, Kristina M.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Reeves, Gordon H.

    2015-01-01

    Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

  18. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  19. Vulnerabilities of national parks in the American Midwest to climate and land use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Shaver, David; Karstensen, Krista A.

    2016-06-08

    Many national parks in the American Midwest are surrounded by agricultural or urban areas or are in highly fragmented or rapidly changing landscapes. An environmental stressor is a physical, chemical, or biological condition that affects the functioning or productivity of species or ecosystems. Climate change is just one of many stressors on park natural resources; others include urbanization, land use change, air and water pollution, and so on. Understanding and comparing the relative vulnerability of a suite of parks to projected climate and land use changes is important for region-wide planning. A vulnerability assessment of 60 units in the 13-state U.S. National Park Service Midwestern administrative region to climate and land use change used existing data from multiple sources. Assessment included three components: individual park exposure (5 metrics), sensitivity (5 metrics), and constraints to adaptive capacity (8 metrics) under 2 future climate scenarios. The three components were combined into an overall vulnerability score. Metrics were measures of existing or projected conditions within park boundaries, within 10-kilometer buffers surrounding parks, and within ecoregions that contain or intersect them. Data were normalized within the range of values for all assessed parks, resulting in high, medium, and low relative rankings for exposure, sensitivity, constraints to adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability. Results are consistent with assessments regarding patterns and rates of climate change nationwide but provide greater detail and relative risk for Midwestern parks. Park overall relative vulnerability did not differ between climate scenarios. Rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and constraints to adaptive capacity varied geographically and indicate regional conservation planning opportunities. The most important stressors for the most vulnerable Midwestern parks are those related to sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of the park) and

  20. Assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and adaptation planning in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few

  1. Michigan forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen Handler; Matthew J. Duveneck; Louis Iverson; Emily Peters; Robert M. Scheller; Kirk R. Wythers; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Amy Clark Eagle; Joshua G. Cohen; Rich Corner; Peter B. Reich; Tim Baker; Sophan Chhin; Eric Clark; David Fehringer; Jon Fosgitt; James Gries; Christine Hall; Kimberly R. Hall; Robert Heyd; Christopher L. Hoving; Ines Ibáñez; Don Kuhr; Stephen Matthews; Jennifer Muladore; Knute Nadelhoffer; David Neumann; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Matt Sands; Randy Swaty; Leiloni Wonch; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; Gary Johnson; Lucinda Johnson; David Neitzel; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert. Ziel

    2014-01-01

    Forests in northern Michigan will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate during the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Michigan's eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate...

  2. Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Whited, Diane C.; DeHaan, Patrick W.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Luikart, Gordon

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision-making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4–7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether bull trout genetic diversity was related to climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, which we quantified on the basis of exposure to future climatic conditions (projected scenarios for the 2040s) and existing habitat complexity. We found a strong gradient in genetic diversity in bull trout populations across the Columbia River Basin, where populations located in the most upstream headwater areas had the greatest genetic diversity. After accounting for spatial patterns with linear mixed models, allelic richness in bull trout populations was positively related to habitat patch size and complexity, and negatively related to maximum summer temperature and the frequency of winter flooding. These relationships strongly suggest that climatic variation influences evolutionary processes in this threatened species and that genetic diversity will likely decrease due to future climate change. Vulnerability at a watershed scale was negatively correlated with average genetic diversity (r = −0.77;P bull trout and other imperiled species. Genetic diversity is already depressed where climatic vulnerability is highest; it will likely erode further in the very places where diversity may be most needed for future persistence.

  3. Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B; Forrest, A. L; Schladow, S. G ;; Reuter, J. E; Coats, R.; Dettinger, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m2/decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m2/decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m2/decade and 8.66 kg/m2/decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

  4. Variation in adult stress resistance does not explain vulnerability to climate change in copper butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klockmann, Michael; Wallmeyer, Leonard; Fischer, Klaus

    2017-03-15

    Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. However, although many species clearly suffer from ongoing climate change, others benefit from it, for example, by showing range expansions. However, which specific features determine a species' vulnerability to climate change? Phenotypic plasticity, which has been described as the first line of defence against environmental change, may be of utmost importance here. Against this background, we here compare plasticity in stress tolerance in 3 copper butterfly species, which differ arguably in their vulnerability to climate change. Specifically, we investigated heat, cold and desiccation resistance after acclimatization to different temperatures in the adult stage. We demonstrate that acclimation at a higher temperature increased heat but decreased cold tolerance and desiccation resistance. Contrary to our predictions, species did not show pronounced variation in stress resistance, though plastic capacities in temperature stress resistance did vary across species. Overall, our results seemed to reflect population-rather than species-specific patterns. We conclude that the geographical origin of the populations used should be considered even in comparative studies. However, our results suggest that, in the 3 species studied here, vulnerability to climate change is not in the first place determined by stress resistance in the adult stage. As entomological studies focus all too often on adults only, we argue that more research effort should be dedicated to other developmental stages when trying to understand insect responses to environmental change. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  5. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

  6. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trainor, Sarah F.; Calef, Monika; Natcher, David; Chapin, F. Stuart; McGuire, A. David; Huntington, Orville; Duffy, Paul A.; Rupp, T. Scott; DeWilde, La'Ona; Kwart, Mary; Fresco, Nancy; Lovecraft, Amy Lauren

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.

  7. The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachatryan, S.

    2009-05-01

    Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

  8. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

  9. Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability

  10. Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schueler, Silvio; Falk, Wolfgang; Koskela, Jarkko; Lefèvre, François; Bozzano, Michele; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C

    2014-05-01

    A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Muhammad; Schilling, Janpeter; Scheffran, Jürgen; Zulfiqar, Farhad

    2016-03-15

    Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory

  12. Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua E Cinner

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1 environmental exposure; 2 ecological sensitivity; 3 ecological recovery potential; 4 social sensitivity; and 5 social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.

  13. Application of Social Vulnerability Indicators to Climate Change for the Southwest Coastal Areas of Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Cheng Wu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the coastal zones of Taiwan not only affects the marine environment, ecology, and human communities whose economies rely heavily on marine activities, but also the sustainable development of national economics. The southwest coast is known as the area most vulnerable to climate change; therefore, this study aims to develop indicators to assess social vulnerability in this area of Taiwan using the three dimensions of susceptibility, resistance, and resilience. The modified Delphi method was used to develop nine criteria and 26 indexes in the evaluation, and the analytic hierarchy process method was employed to evaluate the weight of each indicator based on the perspectives of experts collected through questionnaire surveys. The results provide important information pertaining to the vulnerability of the most susceptive regions, the lowest-resistance areas, and the least resilient townships on the southwest coast. The most socially vulnerable areas are plotted based on the present analysis. Experts can consider the vulnerability map provided here when developing adaptation policies. It should be kept in mind that improving the capacities of resistance and resilience is more important than reducing susceptibility in Taiwan.

  14. (Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington

    2017-12-01

    Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Towards climate justice: how do the most vulnerable weigh environment-economy trade-offs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Running, Katrina

    2015-03-01

    The world's poor are especially vulnerable to environmental disasters, including the adverse consequences of climate change. This creates a challenge for climate justice advocates who seek to ensure that those least responsible for causing climate change do not bear unwanted burdens of mitigation. One way to promote climate justice could be to pay particular attention to the environmental policy preferences of citizens from poorer, lower-emitting countries. This paper examines opinions on environment-economy trade-offs and willingness to make personal financial contributions to protect the environment among residents of 42 developed and developing countries using data from the 2005-2008 World Values Survey, the 2010 Climate Risk Index, and World Bank development indicators. Results reveal that individuals in developing countries are less likely to support policies to prioritize environmental protection over economic growth but are more willing to donate personal income for pro-environmental efforts compared to citizens of more developed nations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Developing Vulnerability Analysis Method for Climate Change Adaptation on Agropolitan Region in Malang District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiarto, Y.; Perdinan; Atmaja, T.; Wibowo, A.

    2017-03-01

    Agriculture plays a strategic role in strengthening sustainable development. Based on agropolitan concept, the village becomes the center of economic activities by combining agriculture, agro-industry, agribusiness and tourism that able to create high value-added economy. The impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources may increase the pressure on agropolitan development. The assessment method is required to measure the vulnerability of area-based communities in the agropolitan to climate change impact. An analysis of agropolitan vulnerability was conducted in Malang district based on four aspects and considering the availability and distribution of water as the problem. The indicators used to measure was vulnerability component which consisted of sensitivity and adaptive capacity and exposure component. The studies earned 21 indicators derived from the 115 village-based data. The results of vulnerability assessments showed that most of the villages were categorised at a moderate level. Around 20% of 388 villages were categorized at high to very high level of vulnerability due to low level of agricultural economic. In agropolitan region within the sub-district of Poncokusumo, the vulnerability of the villages varies between very low to very high. The most villages were vulnerable due to lower adaptive capacity, eventhough the level of sensitivity and exposure of all villages were relatively similar. The existence of water resources was the biggest contributor to the high exposure of the villages in Malang district, while the reception of credit facilities and source of family income were among the indicators that lead to high sensitivity component.

  17. Assessing the Impacts of Decadal Socio-Agro-Hydro Climatic Variations on Agricultural Vulnerability over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, M. P.; Sharma, T.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

    2017-12-01

    Among both rice and wheat producing countries, India holds one of the major global shares in terms of production. However, with rising population, economic variability, and increasing food demand, it has become indispensable to strategically assess the food security of the nation, particularly under changing climatic conditions. This can be achieved by improving knowledge on the impacts of climate change on crop growth and yield through understanding the current status of agricultural vulnerability and quantifying its decadal changes. The present research focuses on assessing the observed decadal changes in agricultural vulnerability over India, at a district-scale. In the study, the deliberation of multiple climatic, hydrologic, agricultural indicators will majorly facilitate evaluating their direct/indirect influence on the crop production. In addition, a set of socio-economic indicators will also be considered to understand the attribution of these factors on the change in agricultural vulnerability. Here, these indicators will be integrated into a multivariate data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to derive relative efficiency of each unit or district in crop production, which will be further transformed into a well-grounded agricultural vulnerability map. It has become essential to understand the influence of these indicators on agriculture, given that the extended periods of excessive/no rainfall or high/low temperature can alter the water cycle and hence cause stress on the agroecosystem. Likewise, change in the population density, main and marginal cultivators, main and marginal agriculture labours, improvement in management practices, or increase in power supply for agricultural use, can directly affect the food security of the region. Hence, this study will undoubtedly assist the decision-makers/strategists by highlighting the agriculturally vulnerable regions over India. Consequently, it will reassure the farmers to define bottom-up approaches in

  18. Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byers, Edward; Gidden, Matthew; Leclère, David; Balkovic, Juraj; Burek, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Greve, Peter; Grey, David; Havlik, Petr; Hillers, Astrid; Johnson, Nils; Kahil, Taher; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Nakicenovic, Nebjosa; Novak, Robert; Obersteiner, Michael; Pachauri, Shonali; Palazzo, Amanda; Parkinson, Simon; Rao, Narasimha D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide; Willaarts, Barbara; Riahi, Keywan

    2018-05-01

    Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those ‘vulnerable to poverty’ from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85%–95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91%–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7%–17% at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14%–30% at 2 °C and again to 27%–51% at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world’s poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.

  19. Climate Change and Coastal Zones. An Overview of the State-of-the-Art on Regional and Local Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sterr, H.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reese, S.

    2000-06-01

    This paper provides an overview of the latest developments in methodologies for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change at regional and local scales. The focus of vulnerability assessment in coastal zones used to be on erosion and land loss due to sea-level rise. Methodologies now increasingly consider the wide range of climate and impact variables that play a part in determining coastal vulnerability, as well as non-climatic developments. The paper presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment that identifies a number of system components that can be considered determinants of vulnerability. It then goes on to outline a number of steps that are required for the actual assessment of coastal vulnerability, such as scenario development, data collection and impact assessment. The approach is illustrated using a regional and local case study in Germany

  20. Vulnerability to changes in malaria transmission due to climate change in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2012-12-01

    Malaria transmission in West Africa is strongly tied to climate; temperature affects the development rate of the malaria parasite, as well as the survival of the mosquitoes that transmit the disease, and rainfall is tied to mosquito abundance, as the vector lays its eggs in rain-fed water pools. As a result, the environmental suitability for malaria transmission in this region is expected to change as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns are altered. The vulnerability to changes in transmission varies throughout West Africa. Areas where malaria prevalence is already very high will be less sensitive to changes in transmission. Increases in environmental suitability for malaria transmission in the most arid regions may still be insufficient to allow sustained transmission. However, areas were malaria transmission currently occurs at low levels are expected to be the most sensitive to changes in environmental suitability for transmission. Here, we use data on current environment and malaria transmission rates to highlight areas in West Africa that we expect to be most vulnerable to an increase in malaria under certain climate conditions. We then analyze climate predictions from global climate models in vulnerable areas, and make predictions for the expected change in environmental suitability for malaria transmission using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a mechanistic model developed to simulate village-scale response of malaria transmission to environmental variables in West Africa.

  1. Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

  2. Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-12-30

    Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.

  3. Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, P.

    2015-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

  4. Adolescent Social Isolation as a Model of Heightened Vulnerability to Comorbid Alcoholism and Anxiety Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Tracy R; Karkhanis, Anushree N; Jones, Sara R; Weiner, Jeffrey L

    2016-06-01

    Individuals diagnosed with anxiety-related illnesses are at increased risk of developing alcoholism, exhibit a telescoped progression of this disease and fare worse in recovery, relative to alcoholics that do not suffer from a comorbid anxiety disorder. Similarly, preclinical evidence supports the notion that stress and anxiety represent major risk factors for the development of alcohol use disorder (AUD). Despite the importance of understanding the link between anxiety and alcoholism, much remains unknown about the neurobiological substrates underlying this relationship. One stumbling block has been the lack of animal models that reliably reproduce the spectrum of behaviors associated with increased vulnerability to these diseases. Here, we review the literature that has examined the behavioral and neurobiological outcomes of a simple rodent adolescent social isolation procedure and discuss its validity as a model of vulnerability to comorbid anxiety disorders and alcoholism. Recent studies have provided strong evidence that adolescent social isolation of male rats leads to the expression of a variety of behaviors linked with increased vulnerability to anxiety and/or AUD, including deficits in sensory gating and fear extinction, and increases in anxiety measures and ethanol drinking. Neurobiological studies are beginning to identify mesolimbic adaptations that may contribute to the behavioral phenotype engendered by this model. Some of these changes include increased excitability of ventral tegmental area dopamine neurons and pyramidal cells in the basolateral amygdala and significant alterations in baseline and stimulated catecholamine signaling. A growing body of evidence suggests that adolescent social isolation may represent a reliable rodent model of heightened vulnerability to anxiety disorders and alcoholism in male rats. These studies provide initial support for the face, construct, and predictive validity of this model and highlight its utility in

  5. The Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Management Matrix for the Coastal Zone of The Gambia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Amuzu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Global Climate Change is one of the dire challenges facing the international community today. Coastal zones are vulnerable to its impacts. An effective approach with long-term prospects in addressing climate change impacts is it’s mainstreaming into development agenda of sectoral policies. A comprehensive risk and vulnerability assessment is a pre-requisite to ensure that the right adaptive response is taken for effective integration into developmental plans. The objective of this study is to evaluate and prioritize risks, vulnerability and adaptation issues of current and anticipated impacts of climate change on the coastal zone of The Gambia. The study will also give a methodological contribution for assessing risks, vulnerability and adaptation from the sub-national to local levels. The relevance of this study will be to create a link between the sub-national and local levels in order to facilitate the integration and mainstreaming of climate change into sectoral and local policies for more climate-resilient communities. This will aid in the promotion of strategic investment of constrained developmental resources to actualize successfully dynamic coping strategies, elude ‘maladaptation’ and less compelling responsive measures. A purposive expert sampling technique was used in selecting respondents for the study. The findings of the study reveal that by the end of the 21st century, the climatic variables likely to have the highest impact on the coastal zone of The Gambia are ‘increased flood severity’ and ‘increased temperature’. The coastal zone of The Gambia showed a high vulnerability to these climate change variables. The suggested adaptive response in addressing the impacts of increased flood intensity in the study area includes; improving regulations for restricting agriculture and livestock grazing activities to improve land cover; strengthening of early-warning systems, among others. The suggested adaptive response in

  6. Vulnerability to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services of boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Maria; Rankinen, Katri; Aalto, Tuula; Akujärvi, Anu; Nadir Arslan, Ali; Liski, Jari; Markkanen, Tiina; Mäkelä, Annikki; Peltoniemi, Mikko

    2016-04-01

    Boreal forests provide an array of ecosystem services. They regulate climate, and carbon, water and nutrient fluxes, and provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming is projected for the boreal zone, and has already been observed in Finland, which sets these services at risk. MONIMET (LIFE12 ENV/FI/000409, 2.9.2013 - 1.9.2017) is a project funded by EU Life programme about Climate Change Indicators and Vulnerability of Boreal Zone Applying Innovative Observation and Modeling Techniques. The coordinating beneficiary of the project is the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Associated beneficiaries are the Natural Resources Institute Finland, the Finnish Environment Institute and the University of Helsinki. In the MONIMET project, we use state-of-the-art models and new monitoring methods to investigate the impacts of a warming climate on the provision of ecosystem services of boreal forests. This poster presents results on carbon storage in soil and assessment of drought indices, as a preparation for assessing the vulnerability of society to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services. The risk of decreasing provision of ecosystem services depends on the sensitivity of the ecosystem as well as its exposure to climate stress. The vulnerability of society, in turn, depends on the risk of decreasing provision of a certain service in combination with society's demand for that service. In the next phase, we will look for solutions to challenges relating to the quantification of the demand for ecosystem services and differences in spatial extent and resolution of the information on future supply and demand.

  7. Habitat associations drive species vulnerability to climate change in boreal forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, María; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka

    2016-01-01

    if species sensitivity, the species ability to tolerate climatic variations determined by traits, plays a key role in determining vulnerability. We analyse the role of species’ habitat associations, a proxy for sensitivity, in explaining vulnerability for two poorly-known but species-rich taxa in boreal...... forest, saproxylic beetles and fungi, using three IPCC emissions scenarios. Towards the end of the 21st century we projected an improvement in habitat quality associated with an increase of deadwood, an important resource for species, as a consequence of increased tree growth under high emissions...... scenarios. However, climate change will potentially reduce habitat suitability for ~9–43 % of the threatened deadwood-associated species. This loss is likely caused by future increase in timber extraction and decomposition rates causing higher deadwood turnover, which have a strong negative effect on boreal...

  8. Vulnerability of sandy coasts to climate change and anthropic pressures: methodology and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idier, D.; Poumadère, M.; Vinchon, C.; Romieu, E.; Oliveros, C.

    2009-04-01

    1-INTRODUCTION Climate change is considered in the latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC (2007) as unequivocal. Induced vulnerability of the system is defined as "the combination of sensitivity to climatic variations, probability of adverse effects, and adaptive capacity". Substantial methodological challenges remain, in particular estimating the risk of adverse climate change impacts and interpreting relative vulnerability across diverse situations. As stated by the IPCC, the "coastal systems should be considered vulnerable to changes in climate". In these areas, amongst the most serious impacts of sea-level rise (Nicholls, 1996) are erosion and marine inundation. Thus, the coast of metropolitan France, being composed of 31% sandy coasts, is potentially vulnerable, as it has been qualitatively assessed on the pilot coasts of Aquitaine and Languedoc-Roussillon in the RESPONSE project (Vinchon et al., 2008). Within the ANR VULSACO project (VULnerability of SAndy COast to climate change and anthropic pressure), the present day erosion tendencies as well as the potentially future erosion trends are investigated. The main objectives are to: (1) assess indicators of vulnerability to climate change for low-lying linear sandy coastal systems, from the shore to the hinterland, facing undergoing climate change and anthropic pressure until the 2030s; and (2) identify the aggravating or improving effect of human pressure on this vulnerability. This second issue is sometimes considered as a main driver of coastal risks. The methodology proposed in the project considers anthropic adaptation (or not) by putting decision makers in front of potential modifications of the physical system, to study the decision process and the choice of adaptation (or not). The coastal system is defined by its morphology, its physical characteristics and its land use. The time scales will range from short-term (days to weeks, e.g. time scale of extreme events) to

  9. Central Hardwoods ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie Brandt; Hong He; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Patricia Butler; Stephen Handler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Matthew Albrecht; Richard Blume-Weaver; Paul Deizman; John DePuy; William D. Dijak; Gary Dinkel; Songlin Fei; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Michael Leahy; Stephen Matthews; Paul Nelson; Brad Oberle; Judi Perez; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; John Shuey; Adam B. Smith; Charles Studyvin; John M. Tirpak; Jeffery W. Walk; Wen J. Wang; Laura Watts; Dale Weigel; Steve. Westin

    2014-01-01

    The forests in the Central Hardwoods Region will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Central Hardwoods Region of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends,...

  10. Climate change through an intersectional lens: gendered vulnerability and resilience in indigenous communities in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Vinyeta; Kyle Powys Whyte; Kathy Lynn

    2015-01-01

    The scientific and policy literature on climate change increasingly recognizes the vulnerabilities of indigenous communities and their capacities for resilience. The role of gender in defining how indigenous peoples experience climate change in the United States is a research area that deserves more attention. Advancing climate change threatens the continuance of many...

  11. Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

    2011-01-01

    The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

  12. Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

  13. Analysing the vulnerability of buildings to climate change: Summer heat and flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Nikolowski

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The REGKLAM project (Development and Testing of an Integrated Regional Climate Change Adaption Programme for the Model Region Dresden forms part of the KLIMZUG programme (Managing Climate Change in the Regions for the Future funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. It is concerned with the adaptation of important sectors of the Dresden region to climate change. One aim is to investigate and where necessary reduce the vulnerability of buildings and settlement structures to changing climatic conditions. This paper looks at flood damage as an example for the potential of climate change impacts on buildings. In ex-post analyses and projections, the article presents the results of regional climatological studies. Interfaces between meteorology and civil engineering are discussed. On the basis of a typology of building stock in the region, the vulnerability of given building types to given impacts was analysed in the form of impact models. The examples of environmental causes chosen were summer heat and flooding. The paper concludes with a discussion of how buildings can be adapted to cope with the impacts described.

  14. Analysing the vulnerability of buildings to climate change. Summer heat and flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikolowski, Johannes; Zimm, Jakob; Naumann, Thomas [Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Dresden (Germany); Goldberg, Valeri [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany). Chair of Meteorology

    2013-04-15

    The REGKLAM project (Development and Testing of an Integrated Regional Climate Change Adaption Programme for the Model Region Dresden) forms part of the KLIMZUG programme (Managing Climate Change in the Regions for the Future) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. It is concerned with the adaptation of important sectors of the Dresden region to climate change. One aim is to investigate and where necessary reduce the vulnerability of buildings and settlement structures to changing climatic conditions. This paper looks at flood damage as an example for the potential of climate change impacts on buildings. In ex-post analyses and projections, the article presents the results of regional climatological studies. Interfaces between meteorology and civil engineering are discussed. On the basis of a typology of building stock in the region, the vulnerability of given building types to given impacts was analysed in the form of impact models. The examples of environmental causes chosen were summer heat and flooding. The paper concludes with a discussion of how buildings can be adapted to cope with the impacts described. (orig.)

  15. Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

    2015-12-01

    Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

  16. Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating

  17. Assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience of southern Taiwan to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Hsu Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Water resources management has become more challenging in Taiwan due to rapid socio-economic development and the complications of climate change. This study developed a systematic procedure for assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience with an integrated tool, TaiWAP, including climate change scenarios, a weather generator, a hydrological model, and system dynamic models. Five assessment indicators, including two for vulnerability, two for resilience, and one for availability were used to quantify changes in water resources and improvements after implementing adaption measures. Each indicator was presented with 3 grades, namely low, medium, and high. Water resources vulnerability and resilience for Tainan City in southern Taiwan were evaluated. Insufficient water supply facilities capacity is the major weakness causing low resilience. Water resources allocation flexibility is limited by substantial agricultural water demands. A total of 9 adaption measures and combinations of measures were assessed. Desalination plant implementation can steadily supply public water to lessen system failure duration. Although agricultural water conservation and fallow land can greatly reduce water demand, fallow compensation is a potential cost. When food security is considered, reducing irrigation leakage will be a better adaption measure to both water and agriculture stakeholders. Both agriculture water conservation and cropping systems adjustment have cross-spatial flexibilities. The combination of desalination, reservoirs and public water conservation provide the most beneficial effects in reducing climate change impact.

  18. A support system for assessing local vulnerability to weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletti, Alex; Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks—defined and prioritized qualitatively by users—can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.

  19. Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huey, Raymond B.; Kearney, Michael R.; Krockenberger, Andrew; Holtum, Joseph A. M.; Jess, Mellissa; Williams, Stephen E.

    2012-01-01

    A recently developed integrative framework proposes that the vulnerability of a species to environmental change depends on the species' exposure and sensitivity to environmental change, its resilience to perturbations and its potential to adapt to change. These vulnerability criteria require behavioural, physiological and genetic data. With this information in hand, biologists can predict organisms most at risk from environmental change. Biologists and managers can then target organisms and habitats most at risk. Unfortunately, the required data (e.g. optimal physiological temperatures) are rarely available. Here, we evaluate the reliability of potential proxies (e.g. critical temperatures) that are often available for some groups. Several proxies for ectotherms are promising, but analogous ones for endotherms are lacking. We also develop a simple graphical model of how behavioural thermoregulation, acclimation and adaptation may interact to influence vulnerability over time. After considering this model together with the proxies available for physiological sensitivity to climate change, we conclude that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests. Their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions. Whether tropical forest (or other) species can adapt to warming environments is unclear, as genetic and selective data are scant. Nevertheless, the prospects for tropical forest ectotherms appear grim. PMID:22566674

  20. Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-08-15

    The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

  1. Evaluating soil contamination risk impact on land vulnerability and climate change in east Azerbaijan, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahbazi, Farzin; Anaya-Romero, Maria; de La Rosa, Diego

    2010-05-01

    Increased land degradation is one possible, and important, consequence of global climate change. As reported by IPCC, warming is likely to be well above the global mean in central Asia, the Tibetan Plateau and northern Asia, above the global mean in eastern Asia and South Asia, and similar to the global mean in Southeast and west Asia. Following these variation, agricultural face will abruptly be transformed in Iran which has been located in Middle East, west Asia. During 1951 to 2003 several stations in different climatological zones of Iran reported significant decrease in frost days due to rise in surface temperature. Also, some stations show a decreasing trend in precipitation (Anzali, Tabriz, Zahedan) while others (Mashad, Shiraz) have reported increasing trends. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model named Pantanal within the new MicroLEIS DSS framework is used for assessing limitations for vulnerability of an area about 9000ha located in east Azerbaijan province of Iran is closed to Tabriz. The Pantanal approach is a land vulnerability evaluation model based on three kinds of information: I) monthly meteorological data; II) soil survey data; and III) agricultural management information. The major discussed agro contaminants were phosphorous, nitrogen, heavy metals and pesticides. Climate data such as mean average maximum and minimum temperatures for each month and total annual precipitation for last 20 consecutive years (1986-2006) were collected from Ahar meteorological station. The second scenario is based on projected changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for west Asia for the 2080s. In West Asia, climate change is likely to cause severe water stress in 21st century. In details, the mean temperature (°C) will increase 5.1, 5.6, 6.3 and 5.7 in winter, spring, summer and autumn respectively, in the future scenario at the study area. On the other hand, total precipitation will decrease 11 and 25 percent in winter and

  2. Developing a Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index for Urban Areas: A Case Study of East Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Carvalhaes, Thomaz M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Census American Community Survey 2008-2012 data are used to construct a spatially explicit Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) for the East Tennessee area. This CSVI is a combination of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and a Climate Index. A method is replicated and adapted to derive a custom SVI by Census tract for the counties participating in the East Tennessee Index, and a Climate Index is developed for the same area based on indicators for climate hazards. The resulting datasets are exported as a raster to be integrated and combined within the Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT) to act as an indicator for communities which may be differentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Results for the SVI are mapped separately from the complete CSVI in this document as results for the latter are in development.

  3. Climate Change Awareness among the High School Students: Case Study from a Climate Vulnerable Country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.A. Rahman

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is one the worst sufferers of climate change. Climate change awareness creation is pivotal to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Effective dissemination of knowledge among the citizens during high school years is crucial to that end. In Bangladesh, secondary school students follow common curricula which include entries on climate change. This paper investigates the role of the diverse demographic profiles and inherent scholastic background of students on their informedness. The research is based on responses from secondary schools students in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Based on their understanding of climate change, we have constructed the Climate Awareness Index (CAI. Then the relative roles of demographic determinants of the awareness have been compared using the CAI. The quality of schools, and grade, major and merit position of students have affected the CAI values. Besides, the study concluded that the religion, gender, parental education, occupation and income, etc. could affect students’ climate change informedness in Bangladesh.

  4. The vulnerability of tourism and recreation in the National Capital Region to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, D; Jones, B. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Faculty of Environmental Studies; Khaled, H.A. [National Capital Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-03-15

    The potential impact of climate change on recreation and tourism in Canada's National Capital Region was assessed. The objectives of the study were to examine two important issues, including how climate change will influence the seasonality of major recreation and tourism segments in the winter and summer months. The study analysed the disparate vulnerability of recreation and tourism segments to climate variability and change, explored risks and opportunities for recreation and tourism in the region, and examined management adaptation strategies. The study was conducted in several phases involving consultation meetings with National Capital Commission staff, data compilation and development of climate change scenarios. This was followed by a climate change impact assessment. The report also provided information on the methodology used for the study and on climate change impact indicators. It was concluded that as a result of climate change, the Winterlude season would become shorter and that the timeframe for skating on the Rideau Canal was projected to be shortened. 61 refs., 23 tabs., 20 figs., 2 appendices.

  5. Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

  6. Classroom’s climate and good teaching methods with vulnerable teenagers: further from academic contents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antonio Manota Sánchez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to analyse a series of elements related with good teaching practices, which are of remarkable importance in the configuration of the classroom climate, especially regarding vulnerable students. We start from the perception of teachers, tutors and students from first cycle of secondary education contrasted with three instruments: the “Child Multifactorial Adaptation Test” (TAMAI and two surveys about “Perception of the classroom climate by the students” (PCA-A, and “Perception of the classroom climate by the teachers” (PCA-P. Between obtained results, as good teaching practices in relation with the climate of the classroom, it is pointed out the listening attitude from the teacher towards the alumni, their availability to accompany them on their educative process and neutralise the creation of stereotypes and excluding labels, the importance of the formation of the teachers in the emotions management, and above all, their inclination to share those emotions. Other significant results show the uneven necessity of being heard of the students, the “blind spot” of negative misconceptions between teachers and students, and the way that students’ perception change depending on their vulnerability degree and the level of failure at adapting to school they might present.

  7. VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NEW MEMBER STATES OF EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mária Fekete FARKASNÉ

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, as our Planet became more vulnerable, the demand for improved knowledge of environmental process and the impact of human activity on their dynamic increased. The debate over climate change has clearly entered a new phase that is focusing on what must be done related to mitigation and adaptation. It is there for clear how important agricultural land use change is for the global environment in all its varied components. Different factors, including demographic trends, economic growth and affluence, technology, agricultural and rural policies, institutional structure, social a ttitudes and values and other key driving forces, lead to changes in land use and land cover resulting in a range of impacts on yields, farm income, biodiversity, landscape identity water quality, flooding, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion. As the impacts of climate change become more noticeable, international, national and local awareness of the need to prepare for, and respond to, the impacts of climate change has grown. In the face of increasing uncertainty of climat e variability, and socio-economic situation their effectiveness may be reduced significantly. In such a context, prediction of socio-economic trends and the environment changing in space and time is clearly impossible. Given these constraints, an alternative technique for analysis is required. This paper is focusing on the methodology issues of vulnerability analysis in agriculture with special attention on new member states of EU.

  8. Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Steen

    Full Text Available The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs. We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%. However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper to -100% (Wilson's Snipe. Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

  9. Vulnerability assessment in African villages under conditions of land use and climate change: case studies from Mkomazi and Keiskamma

    OpenAIRE

    Grothmann, Torsten; Petzold, Maximilian; Ndaki, Patrick; Kakembo, Vincent; Siebenhüner, Bernd; Kleyer, Michael; Yanda, Pius; Ndou, Naledzani

    2017-01-01

    While most climate change vulnerability assessments focus on regional or city-levels, this paper studies villages and their different forms of vulnerability vis-à-vis climate change. In the African context, the village level proves to be central for land-use related decision-making given the traditional role of village communities. The paper analyses two different regions, namely the Mkomazi Water Basin in Tanzania and the Keiskamma River Catchment in South Africa. Due to the differing roles ...

  10. Guidebook for territories' support in the analysis of their socio-economical vulnerability to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The work of the inter-ministerial group 'Impacts of Climate Change, Adaptation and Associated Costs for France', which met between March 2007 and October 2009, led to a sector-based assessment of all climate change related impacts and of associated adaptation measures. The aim was to obtain quantified elements that could underpin public policy decision-making and especially development of the National Adaptation Plan. While the sectoral analyses focused on quantifying the costs of adaptation, the approach of the 'Territories' group, co-steered by the Datar (regional development delegation) and Ademe (agency for energy management and environment), addressed the subject of interactions between players and activities, both spatial (sharing of resources between different uses, etc.) and temporal (transition from one situation to another, etc.) and the corresponding means for adjustment. It was in this context that the SOeS proposed a methodology for diagnosis of the socio-economic vulnerability of a given sub-national territory in the face of climate change. This document provides a broad-brush outline of the accompanying guidelines developed by Sogreah Consultants SAS for use by local players. A three step approach is followed to draw up the vulnerability profile of a territory: 1 - characterising the territory by the identification of the priority activities and physical features; 2 - using the analysis tools to produce a matrix of indices of vulnerability to climate change per hazard; 3 - drawing up an initial vulnerability profile by bringing together the information from the matrix and that from feedback, either by activity or group of activities, or by environment, depending on aims. The profile leads to identification of the important issues as well as allowing identification of potential impacts to be studied in more depth. Guidelines were tested in three pilot territories facing different climate change issues: Wateringues, in the Nord - Pas-de-Calais region

  11. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan A Hare

    Full Text Available Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region. These

  12. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform

  13. Vulnerability of the boreal forest to climate change: are managed forests more susceptible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leduc, A.; Gauthier, S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper postulates that forests dominated by younger seral stages are less vulnerable to climate change that those composed of mature and overmature stands. To support this analysis, an overview of expected changes in climate conditions was provided. Expected changes include higher maximum temperatures, higher minimum temperatures and a decrease in periods of intense cold and fewer frost days; reduction in the diurnal temperature range; an increase in the apparent heat index; greater numbers of intense precipitation; and, increased risk of drought associated with air mass movements. A comparison between conditions in a managed forest mosaic and natural forests was made, with managed forests differing due to efforts to regulate the age structure. The inversion in the age structure of forest mosaics creates significant changes in structural characteristics and composition, including greater hardwood components and more even-aged stands. It was concluded that in Canada, managed boreal forests are younger and have less black spruce and more hardwoods and fir, making younger forests less vulnerable to fire and more amenable to fire control due to increased accessibility. It was also noted that because of their relative youth, managed forests are more vulnerable to regeneration failure and that managed forests with more balsam fir and trembling aspen are at greater risk for insect outbreaks. In addition, wind throw, a threat to older forests, is not significant in managed forests. 15 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  14. Climate Change, Forests, and Water Supply: Managing to Reduce Vulnerability in Central Nova Scotia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenberg, J.; Duinker, P.

    2009-12-01

    Global climate change is increasingly relevant in managing Canada’s forests sustainably. Forest managers are faced with the necessity of incorporating climate change into forest management plans. The formulation and evaluation of potential management strategies to contend with expected impacts of climate change will be necessary to reduce forest sector vulnerability. The Halifax Regional Water Commission manages forest watersheds for the purpose of supplying clean water to much of the Halifax Regional Municipality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the future forest structure of the two principal watersheds supplying the Halifax Regional Municipality using simulation modelling and to develop a framework of adaptive forest management. A combination of uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, and field data collection are used to refine, calibrate, and validate the spatially dynamic landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II prior to the incorporation of climate change scenarios into model simulations. Final model-based analysis will inform framework development dedicated to improving watershed resilience in the face of future climate change. This study is applicable to forest management under a changing climate, but also has further significance to water security, as watershed management and point-source protection are tightly linked to forest management.

  15. The Irish famine of 1740–1741: famine vulnerability and "climate migration"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Engler

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The "Great Frost" of 1740 was one of the coldest winters of the eighteenth century and impacted many countries all over Europe. The years 1740–1741 have long been known as a period of general crisis caused by harvest failures, high prices for staple foods, and excess mortality. Vulnerabilities, coping capacities and adaptation processes varied considerably among different countries. This paper investigates the famine of 1740–1741 in Ireland applying a multi-indicator model developed specifically for the integration of an analysis of pre-famine vulnerability, the Famine Vulnerability Analysis Model (FVAM. Our focus is on Ireland, because famine has played a more outstanding role in Irish national history than in any other European country, due to the "Great Famine" of 1845–1852 and its long-term demographic effects. Our analysis shows that Ireland was already particularly vulnerable to famine in the first half of the eighteenth century. During and after the experience of hardship in 1740–1741, many Irish moved within Ireland or left the country entirely. We regard migration as a form of adaptation and argue that Irish migration in 1740–1741 should be considered as a case of climate-induced migration.

  16. The Irish famine of 1740-1741: famine vulnerability and "climate migration"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engler, S.; Mauelshagen, F.; Werner, J.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-05-01

    The "Great Frost" of 1740 was one of the coldest winters of the eighteenth century and impacted many countries all over Europe. The years 1740-1741 have long been known as a period of general crisis caused by harvest failures, high prices for staple foods, and excess mortality. Vulnerabilities, coping capacities and adaptation processes varied considerably among different countries. This paper investigates the famine of 1740-1741 in Ireland applying a multi-indicator model developed specifically for the integration of an analysis of pre-famine vulnerability, the Famine Vulnerability Analysis Model (FVAM). Our focus is on Ireland, because famine has played a more outstanding role in Irish national history than in any other European country, due to the "Great Famine" of 1845-1852 and its long-term demographic effects. Our analysis shows that Ireland was already particularly vulnerable to famine in the first half of the eighteenth century. During and after the experience of hardship in 1740-1741, many Irish moved within Ireland or left the country entirely. We regard migration as a form of adaptation and argue that Irish migration in 1740-1741 should be considered as a case of climate-induced migration.

  17. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory: May 23, 2014 -- June 5, 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogel, J. [Abt Environmental Research, Boulder, CO (United States); O' Grady, M. [Abt Environmental Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Renfrow, S. [Abt Environmental Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-09-03

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Golden, Colorado, focuses on renewable energy and energy efficiency research. Its portfolio includes advancing renewable energy technologies that can help meet the nation's energy and environmental goals. NREL seeks to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the laboratory--and therefore on its mission--to ensure its ongoing success. Planning today for a changing climate can reduce NREL's risks and improve its resiliency to climate-related vulnerabilities. This report presents a vulnerability assessment for NREL. The assessment was conducted in fall 2014 to identify NREL's climate change vulnerabilities and the aspects of NREL's mission or operations that may be affected by a changing climate.

  18. Roads and associated structures: infrastructure impacts, vulnerabilities and design considerations for future climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tighe, S.L.; Lapp, D.

    2009-01-01

    This paper provides a summary of the findings from the literature scan, directed at identifying engineering literature that relates to road and associated infrastructure vulnerabilities in light of climate change. The scan was carried out over the course of several weeks in late 2007/early 2008. Although many Canadian transportation agencies are thinking about the potential vulnerabilities and associated engineering impacts, very few agencies have completed any formal analysis at this time. A few agencies currently have some on-going activities that are expected to be completed in 2008, but the majority have not started to examine the engineering aspects of how the change will need to be addressed in design, construction and maintenance. Although climate change and it's impact on transportation and specifically roads and associated structures is appearing in various reports and documents across Canada, available detailed information on engineering impacts was limited to nonexistent. This paper includes a brief introduction and background on climate change in general and the related predicted impacts on road infrastructure and associated structures, with primary focus on bridges. These sections are followed by project scope and objectives and methodology of assessment. The summary of findings provides some more specific details and has been prepared using available public agency documents that were located during the aforementioned search. Finally a few closing comments are provided. (author)

  19. Vulnerabilities and opportunities at the nexus of electricity, water and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frumhoff, Peter; Burkett, Virginia; Jackson, Robert B.; Newmark, Robin; Overpeck, Jonathan; Webber, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The articles in this special issue examine the critical nexus of electricity, water, and climate, emphasizing connections among resources;  the prospect of increasing vulnerabilities of water resources and electricity generation in a changing climate;  and the opportunities for research to inform integrated energy and water policy and management measures aimed at reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. Here, we characterize several major themes emerging from this research and highlight some of the uptake of this work in both scientific and public spheres.  Underpinning much of this research is the recognition that water resources are expected to undergo substantial changes based on the global warming that results primarily from fossil energy-based carbon emissions.  At the same time, the production of electricity from fossil fuels, nuclear power, and some renewable technologies (biomass, geothermal and concentrating solar power) can be highly water-intensive.  Energy choices now and in the near future will have a major impact not just on the global climate, but also on water supplies and the resilience of energy systems that currently depend heavily on them.

  20. Vulnerability Assessment of Environmental and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to water resources systems which are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Water resources in arid mountain regions, such as Al Jabal Al Akhdar; northern Sultanate of Oman, are vulnerable to the potential adverse impacts of environmental and climate change. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes are exerting pressures and have direct impacts on increasing demands for water resources and their vulnerability. In this study, vulnerability assessment was carried out using guidelines prepared by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and Peking University to evaluate four components of the water resource system: water resources stress, water development pressure, ecological health, and management capacity. The calculated vulnerability index (VI was high, indicating that the water resources are experiencing levels of stress. Ecosystem deterioration was the dominant parameter and management capacity was the dominant category driving the vulnerability on water resources. The vulnerability assessment will support policy and decision makers in evaluating options to modify existing policies. It will also help in developing long-term strategic plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures and implement effective policies for sustainable water resources management, and therefore the sustenance of human wellbeing in the region.

  1. Ecosystem services and livelihoods - Vulnerability and adaption to a changing climate. VACCIA Synthesis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, I.; Mattson, T.; Niemelae, E.; Vuorenmaa, J.; Forsius, M. (eds.)

    2011-12-15

    This report is a summary of results from the project Vulnerability Assessment of Ecosystem Services for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation (VACCIA), funded by the European Union's LIFE+ programme. Partners in the extensive three-year (2009-2011) project, coordinated by the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), included the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the University of Helsinki, the University of Jyvaeskylae and the University of Oulu. Key results from the 13 VACCIA Actions are compiled in the summary. The Actions assessed the threats and challenges posed by climate change to ecosystem services and livelihoods, and suggested methods for adapting to changing conditions. The report also highlights further research needs. The publication's introduction describes the ecosystem service concept and provides an insight into policy processes for handling ecosystem services and their adaptation to a changing climate. Results of the Actions are assembled in the following three chapters, the first presenting key methods used in the project for monitoring changes and predicting future changes, the second describing the change in ecosystem services, and the third reviewing vulnerability and adaptation. An extensive summary section is also included. Annexed tables present the project's key results and conclusions compactly, alongside the resulting adaptation challenges and needs for further research. Monitoring and prediction of changes is based, e.g. on climate and air quality scenarios produced by the project, and remote sensing and geographic information materials. Of ecosystem services, those produced by catchments and water bodies are examined, alongside changes in the biodiversity of coastal, water and forest environments, studied with the help of sample species. Ecosystem services needed by urban areas are examined from the viewpoint of climate change and changes in land use. Among livelihoods, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism are

  2. On the frontiers of climate and environmental change. Vulnerabilities and adaptions in central Vietnam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruun, Ole; Casse, Thorkil (eds.) [Roskilde Univ. (Denmark). Dept. of Society and Globalization

    2013-06-01

    Based on new research in Central Vietnam with inputs from a range of disciplines. Suggests a broader, interdisciplinary approach to climate change adaptation and environmental planning. Advises steps on how to formulate a research framework for analyses of social and economic impacts of climate changes, using both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Concludes that climate change adaptation will not be successful unless integrated with environmental planning takes into account local man-made environmental changes, such as hydropower construction and changing forestry and land-use patterns. This book is intended to fill a gap in climate-change literature by providing a comprehensive regional study and identifying the overall adaptation challenges in a real-life context. The way in which possible climate impacts interact with a range of other challenges in agriculture, forestry, disaster planning, health care, general economic development, and common livelihoods are presented, and it is argued that greater realism and broader vision are needed in order to address the climate challenge. For instance, unsuitable land- use changes in both coastal and highland regions may increase the vulnerability of rural people, many of whom are already living on the fringes. The author(s) also state(s) that, depending on context, it may be pertinent to address short-term and unsustainable resource use, irregularities in local land management, ineffective governance and social inequality, which are all likely to aggravate the impact of external climate and weather. Not least, it is imperative to integrate general environmental management with any climate-change adaptation effort.

  3. Social, Environmental, and Health Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of the Municipalities of Minas Gerais, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Flávia Quintão

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and dynamic phenomenon involving both social and physical/environmental aspects. It is presented as a method for the quantification of the vulnerability of all municipalities of Minas Gerais, a state in southeastern Brazil. It is based on the aggregation of different kinds of environmental, climatic, social, institutional, and epidemiological variables, to form a composite index. This was named “Index of Human Vulnerability” and was calculated using a software (SisVuClima® specifically developed for this purpose. Social, environmental, and health data were combined with the climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, downscaled from ETA-HadGEM2-ES for each municipality. The Index of Human Vulnerability associated with the RCP 8.5 has shown a higher vulnerability for municipalities in the southern and eastern parts of the state of Minas Gerais.

  4. Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuberville, Tracey D.; Andrews, Kimberly M.; Sperry, Jinelle H.; Grosse, Andrew M.

    2015-10-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

  5. A vulnerability tool for adapting water and aquatic resources to climate change and extremes on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results

  6. Gender and climate change in the Indian Hindu-Kush Himalayas: global threats, local vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogra, M. V.; Badola, R.

    2014-11-01

    Global climate change has numerous implications for members of mountain communities who feel the impacts in both physical and social dimensions. In the Western Himalayas of India, a majority of residents maintain a livelihood strategy that includes a combination of subsistence or small-scale agriculture, seasonal pastoral migration, male out-migration, and localized natural resource extraction. Particularly under conditions of heavy male outmigration, but throughout the region, mountain women play a key role in providing labor and knowledge related to the management of local natural resources, yet often lack authority in related political and economic decision-making processes. This gap has important implications for addressing the impacts of climate change: while warming temperatures, irregular patterns of precipitation and snowmelt, and changing biological systems present challenges to the viability of these traditional livelihood portfolios throughout the region, mountain women increasingly face new challenges in their roles as household managers that have not adequately been emphasized in larger scale planning for climate change adaptation and mitigation. These challenges are complex in nature, and are shaped not only by gender issues but also interacting factors such as class, caste, ethnicity, and age (among others). In this paper, we review the main arguments behind the discursive gender/climate change nexus, discuss the implications for gendered vulnerabilities and transformation of adaptive capacities in the region, and suggest ways that researchers and policymakers seeking to promote "climate justice" can benefit from the incorporation of gender-based perspectives and frameworks.

  7. Vulnerability of High-Quality Winegrowing to Climate Change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, K. N.; Field, C. B.; Matthews, M. A.; Lobell, D. B.

    2009-05-01

    We took an interdisciplinary approach to examine the climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity of both the ecological and social systems of winegrowing. In a three-year study, we used field, laboratory, modeling, and anthropological approaches to examine the vulnerability of the wine industry to climate change. We developed models of winegrape yields based on the effects of historical temperature and precipitation in California, and used these findings to project future yields under climate change. We examined the concentrations of phenolic compounds important to wine quality (anthocyanins and tannins) in Pinot noir grapes from across a range of mesoclimates. We found that increased concentrations of these phenolic compounds were correlated with cool temperatures in the fall the year before harvest, warm temperatures from budburst to bloom, and cool temperatures from bloom to veraison, and with lower light intensities in these highly sun-exposed vines. We also conducted interviews to examine the adaptation responses of winegrowers to environmental stresses. We found that growers undertake a wide variety of environmental management strategies in the vineyard, most of which are individual in nature, and either in response to an existing stress, or in anticipation of an imminent stress. Finally, we examined the potential adaptive capacity of the wine industry to climate change, based on its awareness of climate change, ability to react, and actual actions and barriers to action. We conclude that winegrowers have a fairly high adaptive capacity, but that successful adaptation in practice depends on including proactive and coordinated community responses, which are beginning to develop.

  8. Role of Education and Training in Agricultural Meteorology to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, S. [Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein, 9300 (South Africa)

    2005-05-01

    Agricultural meteorologists are concerned with many operational aspects of the effects of climate on crop production, livestock, and natural resource management. For them to continue to make a contribution to the economy of a country they must continually sharpen their skills and remain updated on the latest available information. Training should include a variety of skills, including transferable skills (e.g. communication, numeracy), professional skills (including cognitive skills) and information technology skills. Problem-based learning can be used to promote critical thinking, decision making and analytical skills. More use should be made of computer-aided learning for agricultural meteorologists' in-service training. In particular, the Internet or CDs could be used to disseminate specific recently developed techniques and applications to improve the understanding of the variability in climate and its effect on agricultural production and natural resource management. Examples that can address the vulnerability of farmers include crop-climate matching, the use of indices, crop modelling and risk assessment together with seasonal outlooks. A strategy needs to be formulated to address these needs and implement changes in the education and training of agricultural meteorologists. These training needs must be constantly updated to meet the changing demands of new technology to cope with climate change and climate variability.

  9. Climate change: assessment of the vulnerability of nuclear power and cost of adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paillere, H.; Cameron, R. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, Issy-les-Moulineaux, Paris (France); Caneill, J.-Y. [EDF Group, Paris, (France); Syri, S. [Aalto Univ., Dept. of Energy Technology, Aalto (Finland)

    2014-07-01

    This paper reports on the preliminary outcome of an OECD study (2013-14) aimed at assessing the vulnerability of nuclear power generation in the event of extreme weather events that could be induced by climate change. Nuclear power plants (NPPs), just as other energy infrastructures, can be affected by phenomena such as floods, storms, heat waves, droughts, etc. This paper reports on examples of extreme weather events that have affected the operation of NPPs, and describes the adaptation strategy that can be implemented to improve the resilience of existing generating assets as well as new infrastructures. (author)

  10. Predicting patterns of vulnerability to climate change in near coastal species using an algorithm-based risk assessment framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Near-coastal (0-200 depth) ecosystems and species are under threat from increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. However, species vary in their vulnerability to specific climatic changes and climate impacts will vary geographically. For management to resp...

  11. Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at Fort Huachuca, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

  12. Vulnerability of water supply from the Oregon Cascades to changing climate: linking science to users and policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathleen A. Farley; Christina Tague; Gordon E. Grant

    2011-01-01

    Despite improvements in understanding biophysical response to climate change, a better understanding of how such changes will affect societies is still needed. We evaluated effects of climate change on the coupled human-environmental system of the McKenzie River watershed in the Oregon Cascades in order to assess its vulnerability. Published empirical and modeling...

  13. The Paris-Nairobi climate initiative. Access to clean energy for all in Africa and countries vulnerable to climate change. Access to energy, sustainable development and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The first part of this report highlights the importance of a universal access to energy, the role of public policies and renewable energies, the need to implement sustainable economic models for energy services, and indicates the major objectives and essential actions for these purposes. The second part outlines the weakness of electricity production in Africa, the degradation of the energy mix balance, the vulnerability to climate change, and the fact that Africa, like other countries vulnerable to climate change, possess huge and unexploited renewable energy resources (biomass, hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind). The third part proposes an approach to energy services by developing sustainable cooking, supplying energy to support rural development and to poles of economic growth, by developing sustainable cities (notably in transports and buildings), and by developing national and regional electricity grids. The last part addresses the issue of energy financing in developing countries

  14. Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

    2017-01-01

    As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

  15. A vulnerability assessment for water availability related to the impacts of climate change in Banyuasin Valley, South Sumatra, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdani, Y.

    2018-03-01

    Banyuasin Valley region is located in lowland areas that is potentially subjected to hazard of flooding and submergence. The indication of reduction hazard in water availability is in the period of 2010 with decreasing value of Total Run Off at - 500 mm/year and in the period 2030 is the lowest decline of the region Banyuasin with a value of -100 mm/year. Tanjung Api-api port, built in this area, is feared to be vulnerable to the availability of clean water due to the impact of climate change. The vulnerability components consist of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The formula means vulnerability to a certain hazard is strengthened by its exposure and its sensitivity and decreased by its adaptive capacity. The results of this study showed that water availability in the baseline condition is in low vulnerability (47.91%) whereas, at the projection condition, vulnerability is in the category of moderate vulnerability (81.28%).

  16. High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    % during intensifying drought scenarios, which can have broader electricity sector system implications. Results relevant to stakeholder and power provider interests highlight the vulnerabilities in grid operations driven by water shortage agreements and changes in the climate.

  17. Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, W.; Cramer, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Battaglini, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2011-01-01

    Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of

  18. California golden trout and climate change: Is their stream habitat vulnerable to climate warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathleen R. Matthews

    2010-01-01

    The California golden trout (CGT) Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita is one of the few native high-elevation fish in the Sierra Nevada. They are already in trouble because of exotic trout, genetic introgression, and degraded habitat, and now face further stress from climate warming. Their native habitat on the Kern Plateau meadows mostly in the Golden...

  19. Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

    2017-10-01

    Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience

  20. An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Baca

    Full Text Available The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of

  1. Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments. Lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammill, Anne; Bizikova, Livia; Dekens, Julie; McCandless, Matthew

    2013-03-15

    Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.

  2. Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments. Lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammill, Anne; Bizikova, Livia; Dekens, Julie; McCandless, Matthew

    2013-03-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.

  3. Drinking water vulnerability to climate change and alternatives for adaptation in coastal South and South East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoque, M A; Scheelbeek, P F D; Vineis, P; Khan, A E; Ahmed, K M; Butler, A P

    Drinking water in much of Asia, particularly in coastal and rural settings, is provided by a variety of sources, which are widely distributed and frequently managed at an individual or local community level. Coastal and near-inland drinking water sources in South and South East (SSE) Asia are vulnerable to contamination by seawater, most dramatically from tropical cyclone induced storm surges. This paper assesses spatial vulnerabilities to salinisation of drinking water sources due to meteorological variability and climate change along the (ca. 6000 km) coastline of SSE Asia. The risks of increasing climatic stresses are first considered, and then maps of relative vulnerability along the entire coastline are developed, using data from global scale land surface models, along with an overall vulnerability index. The results show that surface and near-surface drinking water in the coastal areas of the mega-deltas in Vietnam and Bangladesh-India are most vulnerable, putting more than 25 million people at risk of drinking 'saline' water. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem, with adverse consequences for health, such as prevalence of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. There is a need for identifying locations that are most at risk of salinisation in order for policy makers and local officials to implement strategies for reducing these health impacts. To counter the risks associated with these vulnerabilities, possible adaptation measures are also outlined. We conclude that detailed and fine scale vulnerability assessments may become crucial for planning targeted adaptation programmes along these coasts.

  4. A vulnerability driven approach to identify adverse climate and land use change combinations for critical hydrologic indicator thresholds: Application to a watershed in Pennsylvania, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R.; Wagener, T.; Crane, R.; Mann, M. E.; Ning, L.

    2014-04-01

    Large uncertainties in streamflow projections derived from downscaled climate projections of precipitation and temperature can render such simulations of limited value for decision making in the context of water resources management. New approaches are being sought to provide decision makers with robust information in the face of such large uncertainties. We present an alternative approach that starts with the stakeholder's definition of vulnerable ranges for relevant hydrologic indicators. Then the modeled system is analyzed to assess under what conditions these thresholds are exceeded. The space of possible climates and land use combinations for a watershed is explored to isolate subspaces that lead to vulnerability, while considering model parameter uncertainty in the analysis. We implement this concept using classification and regression trees (CART) that separate the input space of climate and land use change into those combinations that lead to vulnerability and those that do not. We test our method in a Pennsylvania watershed for nine ecological and water resources related streamflow indicators for which an increase in temperature between 3°C and 6°C and change in precipitation between -17% and 19% is projected. Our approach provides several new insights, for example, we show that even small decreases in precipitation (˜5%) combined with temperature increases greater than 2.5°C can push the mean annual runoff into a slightly vulnerable regime. Using this impact and stakeholder driven strategy, we explore the decision-relevant space more fully and provide information to the decision maker even if climate change projections are ambiguous.

  5. Summarizing components of U.S. Department of the Interior vulnerability assessments to focus climate adaptation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.

    2015-09-29

    A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability

  6. European Master-Doctorate Course on "Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, R.-A.

    2009-04-01

    « Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change », European Master-Doctorate Course, Council of Europe, Strasbourg 7-11 September 2009 The character of Cultural Heritage is closely related to the climate, and the urban landscape and the built heritage have been designed with the local climate in mind. The stability of Cultural Heritage is, therefore, closely tied to its interactions with the ground and the atmosphere. Climate Change is thus expected to have either catastrophic or subtle effects on Cultural Heritage materials and Cultural Landscapes. The major aim of the 2009 Strasbourg Course is to ensure that young European students are informed on these important problems and will be able in the future to undertake rigorous ongoing scientific monitoring of changes in conditions of Cultural Heritage. The Programme of the Course will cover the following topics: • Heritage Climatology • Principles of Mitigation and Adaptation of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change • Impact of Climate Change on building structures • Dose-Response and Damage Functions for materials in a Changing Climate • Modelling sea salts transport and deposition • Modelling wetting and drying of historic buildings • Impact of Climate Change on building materials: stone, mortar, modern glass, stained glass windows • Impact of Climate Change on organic materials • Biological impact of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage • Sea level rise models and possible application to Cultural Heritage • Past, present and future for Venice • The policies and action plans of International Organisations (Council of Europe, UNESCO, ICCROM) The Course is addressed to young people with scientific background: physicists, chemists, geologists, biologists, engineers, because of the high scientific level of the background required to follow the lectures. Teaching will be delivered in English without any simultaneous translation. The teachers belong to European Universities, National

  7. The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Kovats, R. Sari; hide

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decisionmakers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs (observational datasets) and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

  8. Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaption Measures for Egypt's Nile Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abutaleb, Khaled Abubakr Ali; Mohammed, Asmaa Hassan El-Sayed; Ahmed, Mahmoud H. Mohamed

    2018-04-01

    During the last few decades there has been growing concern about the impacts of climate change. A significant number of institutions, research centers, universities and governments have funded projects in addition to work done by independent scholars and assessors studying this phenomenon, in particular, to identify vulnerability, mitigation and adaptation against associated risks. Egypt is among the international community which took part in numerous studies, research activities, conferences, seminars and meetings attempting to address climate change and its associated risks. Egypt is particularly concerned with the threat to the Nile Delta as it is considered a low-lying land at high risk. The aim of this paper is to review current and previous projects, technical reports and pilot studies, concerning risk assessments, mitigation, and adaptation strategies for climate change in Egypt. This, in turn, will aid in decision making regarding future funding and establishing of research related to climate change in Egypt. This paper will also highlight the weaknesses and strengths of policymakers solely relying on one or more of these studies.

  9. Vulnerability of artisanal fisheries to climate change in the Venice Lagoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pranovi, F; Caccin, A; Franzoi, P; Malavasi, S; Zucchetta, M; Torricelli, P

    2013-10-01

    Within the context of global warming, the western coast of the northern Adriatic Sea can be regarded as an extremely vulnerable area. Owing to the local geographic features, this area has been described as the Venetian lacuna, where Mediterranean Sea climatic conditions are replaced by Atlantic Ocean ones, supporting the presence of glacial relicts, such as sprat Sprattus sprattus, flounder Platichthys flesus and brown shrimp Crangon crangon. Nektonic assemblage therefore represents a good candidate in terms of an early proxy for thermal regime alterations. It represents a dynamic component of the lagoon ecosystem, changing in space and time, actively moving through the entire system, and dynamically exchanging with the open sea. Here, the first signals of the change have been already detected, such as the presence of alien thermophilic species. Within this context, since the beginning of the century, sampling of the nektonic assemblage has been carried out, integrating them with landings data from the fish market. Vulnerabilities to thermal regime changes have been tested by (1) categorizing species according to the mean distribution area in terms of latitudinal range (over 45°, 30°-45° and below 30°), and (2) analysing both spatial and temporal variations within fishing grounds. Results indicated a high potential vulnerability of the artisanal fishery to climate change, as the commercial catch is entirely composed of species from cold (>45° N) and temperate (between 45° and 30° N) latitudes. At present no alien thermophilic species have been recorded within the lagoon, which is possibly a sign of good resilience of the assemblage. Finally, abundance of species from cold latitudes has decreased during the past decade. All of this has been discussed in the context of the mean annual temperature trend. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  10. Human Vulnerability to Climate Variability in the Sahel: Farmers' Adaptation Strategies in Northern Burkina Faso

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbier, Bruno; Yacouba, Hamma; Karambiri, Harouna; Zoromé, Malick; Somé, Blaise

    2009-05-01

    In this study, the authors investigate farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability and evaluate local adoption of technology and farmers’ perceptions of adaptation strategies to rainfall variability and policies. A survey was conducted in a community in northern Burkina Faso following the crop failure of 2004. In 2006, following a better harvest, another survey was conducted to compare farmers’ actions and reactions during two contrasted rainy seasons. The results confirm that farmers from this community have substantially changed their practices during the last few decades. They have adopted a wide range of techniques that are intended to simultaneously increase crop yield and reduce yield variability. Micro water harvesting (Zaï) techniques have been widely adopted (41%), and a majority of fields have been improved with stone lines (60%). Hay (48%) and sorghum residues are increasingly stored to feed animals during the dry season, making bull and sheep fattening now a common practice. Dry season vegetable production also involves a majority of the population (60%). According to farmers, most of the new techniques have been adopted because of growing land scarcity and new market opportunities, rather than because of climate variability. Population pressure has reached a critical threshold, while land scarcity, declining soil fertility and reduced animal mobility have pushed farmers to intensify agricultural production. These techniques reduce farmers’ dependency on rainfall but are still insufficient to reduce poverty and vulnerability. Thirty-nine percent of the population remains vulnerable after a good rainy season. Despite farmers’ desire to remain in their own communities, migrations are likely to remain a major source of regular income and form of recourse in the event of droughts.

  11. Anticipating Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Pastoral Systems: Using Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Dougill

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available It is vitally important to identify agroecosystems that may cease functioning because of changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving toward thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. This study explores these challenges by analyzing how a range of external pressures affect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari. This is achieved by employing dynamic systems modeling approaches to understand the pathways by which communities became vulnerable to drought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1 different agroecosystems' abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2 rural communities' abilities to adapt to drought, mediated via their access to assets; and (3 the ability of institutions and policy interventions to play a role in mediating drought-related crises, i.e., socio-political governance. This is done by reanalyzing ecological and participatory research findings along with farm-scale livestock offtake data from across the Kalahari in Botswana. An iterative process was followed to establish narratives exploring how external drivers led to changes in agroecosystem resilience, access to assets, and the institutional capacity to buffer the system. We use "causal loop diagrams" and statistical dynamic system models to express key quantitative relationships and establish future scenarios to help define where uncertainties lie by showing where the system is most sensitive to change. We highlight how that greater sharing of land management knowledge and practices between private and communal land managers can provide 'win-win-win' benefits of reducing system vulnerability, increasing economic income, and building social capital. We use future scenario analyses to identify key areas for future studies of climate change adaptation across the Kalahari.

  12. Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilo Mora

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5, suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation. Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

  13. Easier surveillance of climate-related health vulnerabilities through a Web-based spatial OLAP application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gosselin Pierre

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climate change has a significant impact on population health. Population vulnerabilities depend on several determinants of different types, including biological, psychological, environmental, social and economic ones. Surveillance of climate-related health vulnerabilities must take into account these different factors, their interdependence, as well as their inherent spatial and temporal aspects on several scales, for informed analyses. Currently used technology includes commercial off-the-shelf Geographic Information Systems (GIS and Database Management Systems with spatial extensions. It has been widely recognized that such OLTP (On-Line Transaction Processing systems were not designed to support complex, multi-temporal and multi-scale analysis as required above. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP is central to the field known as BI (Business Intelligence, a key field for such decision-support systems. In the last few years, we have seen a few projects that combine OLAP and GIS to improve spatio-temporal analysis and geographic knowledge discovery. This has given rise to SOLAP (Spatial OLAP and a new research area. This paper presents how SOLAP and climate-related health vulnerability data were investigated and combined to facilitate surveillance. Results Based on recent spatial decision-support technologies, this paper presents a spatio-temporal web-based application that goes beyond GIS applications with regard to speed, ease of use, and interactive analysis capabilities. It supports the multi-scale exploration and analysis of integrated socio-economic, health and environmental geospatial data over several periods. This project was meant to validate the potential of recent technologies to contribute to a better understanding of the interactions between public health and climate change, and to facilitate future decision-making by public health agencies and municipalities in Canada and elsewhere. The project also aimed at

  14. Easier surveillance of climate-related health vulnerabilities through a Web-based spatial OLAP application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernier, Eveline; Gosselin, Pierre; Badard, Thierry; Bédard, Yvan

    2009-04-03

    Climate change has a significant impact on population health. Population vulnerabilities depend on several determinants of different types, including biological, psychological, environmental, social and economic ones. Surveillance of climate-related health vulnerabilities must take into account these different factors, their interdependence, as well as their inherent spatial and temporal aspects on several scales, for informed analyses. Currently used technology includes commercial off-the-shelf Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Database Management Systems with spatial extensions. It has been widely recognized that such OLTP (On-Line Transaction Processing) systems were not designed to support complex, multi-temporal and multi-scale analysis as required above. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) is central to the field known as BI (Business Intelligence), a key field for such decision-support systems. In the last few years, we have seen a few projects that combine OLAP and GIS to improve spatio-temporal analysis and geographic knowledge discovery. This has given rise to SOLAP (Spatial OLAP) and a new research area. This paper presents how SOLAP and climate-related health vulnerability data were investigated and combined to facilitate surveillance. Based on recent spatial decision-support technologies, this paper presents a spatio-temporal web-based application that goes beyond GIS applications with regard to speed, ease of use, and interactive analysis capabilities. It supports the multi-scale exploration and analysis of integrated socio-economic, health and environmental geospatial data over several periods. This project was meant to validate the potential of recent technologies to contribute to a better understanding of the interactions between public health and climate change, and to facilitate future decision-making by public health agencies and municipalities in Canada and elsewhere. The project also aimed at integrating an initial collection of geo

  15. An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

    2017-10-17

    The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is

  16. Out of their depth? Isolated deep populations of the cosmopolitan coral Desmophyllum dianthus may be highly vulnerable to environmental change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen J Miller

    Full Text Available Deep sea scleractinian corals will be particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, facing loss of up to 70% of their habitat as the Aragonite Saturation Horizon (below which corals are unable to form calcium carbonate skeletons rises. Persistence of deep sea scleractinian corals will therefore rely on the ability of larvae to disperse to, and colonise, suitable shallow-water habitat. We used DNA sequence data of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS, the mitochondrial ribosomal subunit (16S and mitochondrial control region (MtC to determine levels of gene flow both within and among populations of the deep sea coral Desmophyllum dianthus in SE Australia, New Zealand and Chile to assess the ability of corals to disperse into different regions and habitats. We found significant genetic subdivision among the three widely separated geographic regions consistent with isolation and limited contemporary gene flow. Furthermore, corals from different depth strata (shallow 1500 m even on the same or nearby seamounts were strongly differentiated, indicating limited vertical larval dispersal. Genetic differentiation with depth is consistent with the stratification of the Subantarctic Mode Water, Antarctic Intermediate Water, the Circumpolar Deep and North Pacific Deep Waters in the Southern Ocean, and we propose that coral larvae will be retained within, and rarely migrate among, these water masses. The apparent absence of vertical larval dispersal suggests deep populations of D. dianthus are unlikely to colonise shallow water as the aragonite saturation horizon rises and deep waters become uninhabitable. Similarly, assumptions that deep populations will act as refuges for shallow populations that are impacted by activities such as fishing or mining are also unlikely to hold true. Clearly future environmental management strategies must consider both regional and depth-related isolation of deep-sea coral populations.

  17. Out of their depth? Isolated deep populations of the cosmopolitan coral Desmophyllum dianthus may be highly vulnerable to environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Karen J; Rowden, Ashley A; Williams, Alan; Häussermann, Vreni

    2011-01-01

    Deep sea scleractinian corals will be particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, facing loss of up to 70% of their habitat as the Aragonite Saturation Horizon (below which corals are unable to form calcium carbonate skeletons) rises. Persistence of deep sea scleractinian corals will therefore rely on the ability of larvae to disperse to, and colonise, suitable shallow-water habitat. We used DNA sequence data of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS), the mitochondrial ribosomal subunit (16S) and mitochondrial control region (MtC) to determine levels of gene flow both within and among populations of the deep sea coral Desmophyllum dianthus in SE Australia, New Zealand and Chile to assess the ability of corals to disperse into different regions and habitats. We found significant genetic subdivision among the three widely separated geographic regions consistent with isolation and limited contemporary gene flow. Furthermore, corals from different depth strata (shallow 1500 m) even on the same or nearby seamounts were strongly differentiated, indicating limited vertical larval dispersal. Genetic differentiation with depth is consistent with the stratification of the Subantarctic Mode Water, Antarctic Intermediate Water, the Circumpolar Deep and North Pacific Deep Waters in the Southern Ocean, and we propose that coral larvae will be retained within, and rarely migrate among, these water masses. The apparent absence of vertical larval dispersal suggests deep populations of D. dianthus are unlikely to colonise shallow water as the aragonite saturation horizon rises and deep waters become uninhabitable. Similarly, assumptions that deep populations will act as refuges for shallow populations that are impacted by activities such as fishing or mining are also unlikely to hold true. Clearly future environmental management strategies must consider both regional and depth-related isolation of deep-sea coral populations.

  18. Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

  19. Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

  20. Adolescent vulnerability to cardiovascular consequences of chronic social stress: Immediate and long-term effects of social isolation during adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Fábio C; Duarte, Josiane O; Leão, Rodrigo M; Hummel, Luiz F V; Planeta, Cleopatra S; Crestani, Carlos C

    2016-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that disruption of social bonds and perceived isolation (loneliness) are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Adolescence is proposed as a period of vulnerability to stress. Nevertheless, the impact of chronic social stress during this ontogenic period in cardiovascular function is poorly understood. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to compare the impact in cardiovascular function of social isolation for 3 weeks in adolescent and adult male rats. Also, the long-term effects of social isolation during adolescence were investigated longitudinally. Social isolation reduced body weight in adolescent, but not in adult animals. Disruption of social bonds during adolescence increased arterial pressure without affecting heart rate and pulse pressure (PP). Nevertheless, social isolation in adulthood reduced systolic arterial pressure and increased diastolic arterial pressure, which in turn decreased PP without affecting mean arterial pressure. Cardiovascular changes in adolescents, but not adults, were followed by facilitation of both baroreflex sensitivity and vascular reactivity to the vasodilator agent acetylcholine. Vascular responsiveness to either the vasodilator agent sodium nitroprusside or the vasoconstrictor agent phenylephrine was not affected by social isolation. Except for the changes in body weight and baroreflex sensitivity, all alterations evoked by social isolation during adolescence were reversed in adulthood after moving animals from isolated to collective housing. These findings suggest a vulnerability of adolescents to the effects of chronic social isolation in cardiovascular function. However, results indicate minimal cardiovascular consequences in adulthood of disruption of social bonds during adolescence. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-07-29

    With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  2. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana Hansen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  3. Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthi, J., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

  4. Adaptation, Spatial Heterogeneity, and the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems to Climate Change and CO2 Fertilization: An Integrated Assessment Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antle, J.M.; Capalbo, S.M.; Elliott, E.T.; Paustian, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we develop economic measures of vulnerability to climate change with and without adaptation in agricultural production systems. We implement these measures using coupled, site-specific ecosystem and economic simulation models. This modeling approach has two key features needed to study the response of agricultural production systems to climate change: it represents adaptation as an endogenous, non-marginal economic response to climate change; and it provides the capability to represent the spatial variability in bio-physical and economic conditions that interact with adaptive responses. We apply this approach to the dryland grain production systems of the Northern Plains region of the United States. The results support the hypothesis that the most adverse impacts on net returns distributions tend to occur in the areas with the poorest resource endowments and when mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and adaptation are absent. We find that relative and absolute measures of vulnerability depend on complex interactions between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, and economic conditions such as relative output prices. The relationship between relative vulnerability and resource endowments varies with assumptions about climate change, adaptation, and economic conditions. Vulnerability measured with respect to an absolute threshold is inversely related to resource endowments in all cases investigated

  5. Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strand, Linn B; Tong, Shilu; Aird, Rosemary; McRae, David

    2010-07-28

    There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature

  6. Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McRae David

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Methods Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15 involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. Results The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems, and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco

  7. Climate change and the vulnerability of electricity generation to water stress in the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, Paul; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Nanninga, Tijmen; Walsh, Brid; Rodrigues, João F. D.

    2017-08-01

    Thermoelectric generation requires large amounts of water for cooling. Recent warm periods have led to curtailments in generation, highlighting concerns about security of supply. Here we assess EU-wide climate impacts for 1,326 individual thermoelectric plants and 818 water basins in 2020 and 2030. We show that, despite policy goals and a decrease in electricity-related water withdrawal, the number of regions experiencing some reduction in power availability due to water stress rises from 47 basins to 54 basins between 2014 and 2030, with further plants planned for construction in stressed basins. We examine the reasons for these pressures by including water demand for other uses. The majority of vulnerable basins lie in the Mediterranean region, with further basins in France, Germany and Poland. We investigate four adaptations, finding that increased future seawater cooling eases some pressures. This highlights the need for an integrated, basin-level approach in energy and water policy.

  8. Flood/Typhoon vulnerability indicators of nuclear power plant in South Korea considering climate change impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Gyu Min; Jun, Kyung Soo [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Chung, Eun Sung [Seoul National Univ of Science and technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Min, Byung Il; Suh, Kyung Suk [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    The Republic of Korea lies in the principal course of the typhoon that is occurred to the Pacific Northwest. It has distinct monsoon wind, a rainy period from the East Asian Monsoon locally called 'Changma', typhoon, and while often heavy snowfalls in winter. It belongs to a relatively wet region due to much more precipitation than that of the world average. In the last 10 years, there frequently was a lot of damage due to flooding with typhoon. In particular, the damage was estimated at up to 5,000 billion KRW by the USA in 2002. Lately, after the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and resultant tsunami hit Japan on March 11, 2011, consecutively approached Typhoon Ro ke made a larger threat. Although it fortunately passed without significant impact. That is, not only typhoon and flood are one of a threat to nuclear power plant but also it could lead to overwhelming damage when it overlapped the other accident. Therefore, flood/typhoon vulnerability assessment could provide important information for the safety management of nuclear power plants. This study derived all the feasible indicators and their corresponding weights for a Flood/Typhoon Vulnerability Index (FTVI) to nuclear power plant considering climate change. In addition selection of the candidates and determination of their weights were estimated using a Delphi process, which is an advanced method for opinion measurement.

  9. An Assessment of Vulnerability and Trade-offs of Dairy Farmers of India to Climate Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar

    2017-04-01

    The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will

  10. Water Resource Vulnerability Characteristics by District’s Population Size in a Changing Climate Using Subjective and Objective Weights

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eun-Sung Chung

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study is to derive water resource vulnerability characteristics for South Korea according to individual district populations in a changing climate. The definition of water resource vulnerability in this study consists of potential flood damage and potential water scarcity. To quantify these vulnerabilities, key factors, or indicators affecting vulnerability, are integrated with a technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS, which is a multi-criteria decision-making approach to determine the optimal alternative by considering both the best and worst solutions. The weight for each indicator is determined based on both the Delphi technique and Shannon’s entropy, which are employed to reduce the uncertainty in the process of determining the weights. The Delphi technique reflects expert opinions, and Shannon’s entropy reflects the uncertainty of the performance data. Under A1B climate change scenarios, medium-sized districts (200,000–300,000 inhabitants are the most vulnerable regarding potential flood damage; the largest districts (exceeding 500,000 inhabitants are found to be the most vulnerable with respect to potential water scarcity. This result indicates that the local governments of cities or districts with more than 200,000 inhabitants should implement better preventative measures for water resources. In addition, the Delphi and entropy methods show the same rankings for flood vulnerability; however, these approaches produce slightly different rankings regarding water scarcity vulnerability. Therefore, it is suggested that rankings from not only subjective but also objective weights should be considered in making a final decision to implement specific adaptive measures to climate change.

  11. Vulnerability of boreal zone for increased nitrogen loading due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankinen, Katri; Holmberg, Maria

    2016-04-01

    The observed rapid warming of the boreal zone that has been observed in Finland (0.14 °C by decade) is expected to continue (http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/). Also precipitation is assumed to increase in future. These changes may increase nitrogen (N) loading from terrestrial environments to water bodies by accelerating soil organic matter decay and by increasing runoff. Nitrogen is limiting nutrient in the Baltic Sea but also in some lakes, so increased loading may increase eutrophication. Further, high nitrate levels in drinking water may cause methaemoglobin anemia for humans, and nitrate is also connected to increased risk of diabetes and cancer. Thus EU has set upper limits to nitrate concentration in drinking water. MONIMET (LIFE12 ENV/FI/000409) is a project about Climate Change Indicators and Vulnerability of Boreal Zone. We simulated N loading from two boreal catchments to the receiving waters by the dynamic, catchment scale model INCA in different climate change and land use change scenarios. We calculated land use specific N loading values for these two well monitored catchments that belong to the LTER (The Long Term Ecological Research) monitoring network. We upscaled the results to the larger river basin, combining them with the information on drinking water supply to assess the vulnerability. Specific emphasis was paid on nitrate concentrations in soil water and groundwater. In general, land use change has higher influence on N loading than increase in precipitation and temperature alone. Peak runoff will sift from snow melting peak in April to late autumn and winter. Growing season will become longer allowing more efficient vegetation uptake of nutrients. Small groundwater aquifers and private wells in the middle of agricultural fields will be in the risk of increased N concentrations, if agricultural N loading increases due to changes in agricultural patterns and land use change.

  12. Sending the Right Bill to the Right People: Climate change, environmental degradation, and social vulnerabilities in Central Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Ole

    2012-01-01

    In a range of international reports Vietnam is pointed out as among the 5 to 10 most climate-vulnerable countries, which are taking center stage in global climate change assistance and thus attracting huge amounts of foreign aid for research, mitigation, adaptation, disaster management, etc....... However, for various reasons relating to global and domestic politics, climate change adaptation and mitigation in Vietnam are separating from general environmental management, while at the same time failing to address social inequality. From a global justice perspective this may seem irrelevant but when...... the resulting technocratic approaches are applied to aid programs, addressing climate change as an autonomous field, the problems on the ground become distorted. Based on field studies in central Vietnam, the paper argues that fragmented approaches risk missing the target of helping the most vulnerable...

  13. Developing effective communication materials on the health effects of climate change for vulnerable groups: a mixed methods study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer M. Kreslake

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Individuals with chronic health conditions or low socioeconomic status (SES are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Health communication can provide information on the management of these impacts. This study tested, among vulnerable audiences, whether viewing targeted materials increases knowledge about the health impacts of climate change and strength of climate change beliefs, and whether each are associated with stronger intentions to practice recommended behaviors. Methods Low-SES respondents with chronic conditions were recruited for an online survey in six cities. Respondents were shown targeted materials illustrating the relationship between climate change and chronic conditions. Changes in knowledge and climate change beliefs (pre- and post-test and behavioral intentions (post-test only were tested using McNemar tests of marginal frequencies of two binary outcomes or paired t-tests, and multivariable linear regression. Qualitative interviews were conducted among target audiences to triangulate survey findings and make recommendations on the design of messages. Results Respondents (N = 122 reflected the target population regarding income, educational level and prevalence of household health conditions. (1 Knowledge. Significant increases in knowledge were found regarding: groups that are most vulnerable to heat (children [p < 0.001], individuals with heart disease [p < 0.001], or lung disease [p = 0.019]; and environmental conditions that increase allergy-producing pollen (increased heat [p = 0.003], increased carbon dioxide [p < 0.001]. (2 Strength of certainty that climate change is happening increased significantly between pre- and post-test (p < 0.001, as did belief that climate change affected respondents’ health (p < 0.001. (3 Behavioral intention. At post-test, higher knowledge of heat vulnerabilities and environmental conditions that trigger pollen

  14. Assessing the vulnerability of economic sectors to climate variability to improve the usability of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts in Europe - a preliminary concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    Climate variability poses major challenges for decision-makers in climate-sensitive sectors. Seasonal to decadal (S2D) forecasts provide potential value for management decisions especially in the context of climate change where information from present or past climatology loses significance. However, usable and decision-relevant tailored climate forecasts are still sparse for Europe and successful examples of application require elaborate and individual producer-user interaction. The assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities to critical climate conditions at specific temporal scale will be a great step forward to increase the usability and efficiency of climate forecasts. A concept for a sector-specific vulnerability assessment (VA) to climate variability is presented. The focus of this VA is on the provision of usable vulnerability information which can be directly incorporated in decision-making processes. This is done by developing sector-specific climate-impact-decision-pathways and the identification of their specific time frames using data from both bottom-up and top-down approaches. The structure of common VA's for climate change related issues is adopted which envisages the determination of exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. However, the application of the common vulnerability components within the context of climate service application poses some fundamental considerations: Exposure - the effect of climate events on the system of concern may be modified and delayed due to interconnected systems (e.g. catchment). The critical time-frame of a climate event or event sequence is dependent on system-internal thresholds and initial conditions. But also on decision-making processes which require specific lead times of climate information to initiate respective coping measures. Sensitivity - in organizational systems climate may pose only one of many factors relevant for decision making. The scope of "sensitivity" in this concept comprises both the

  15. Health coping strategies of the people vulnerable to climate change in a resource-poor rural setting in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Haque, Md Aminul; Budi, Aji; Azam Malik, Ahmad; Suzanne Yamamoto, Shelby; Louis, Val?rie R; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    Background Among the many challenges faced by the people of Bangladesh, the effects of climate change are discernibly threatening, impacting on human settlement, agricultural production, economic development, and human health. Bangladesh is a low-income country with limited resources; its vulnerability to climate change has influenced individuals to seek out health coping strategies. The objectives of the study were to explore the different strategies/measures people employ to cope with clima...

  16. Weeds in a Changing Climate: Vulnerabilities, Consequences, and Implications for Future Weed Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, Kulasekaran; Matloob, Amar; Aslam, Farhena; Florentine, Singarayer K; Chauhan, Bhagirath S

    2017-01-01

    Whilst it is agreed that climate change will impact on the long-term interactions between crops and weeds, the results of this impact are far from clear. We suggest that a thorough understanding of weed dominance and weed interactions, depending on crop and weed ecosystems and crop sequences in the ecosystem, will be the key determining factor for successful weed management. Indeed, we claim that recent changes observed throughout the world within the weed spectrum in different cropping systems which were ostensibly related to climate change, warrant a deeper examination of weed vulnerabilities before a full understanding is reached. For example, the uncontrolled establishment of weeds in crops leads to a mixed population, in terms of C 3 and C 4 pathways, and this poses a considerable level of complexity for weed management. There is a need to include all possible combinations of crops and weeds while studying the impact of climate change on crop-weed competitive interactions, since, from a weed management perspective, C 4 weeds would flourish in the increased temperature scenario and pose serious yield penalties. This is particularly alarming as a majority of the most competitive weeds are C 4 plants. Although CO 2 is considered as a main contributing factor for climate change, a few Australian studies have also predicted differing responses of weed species due to shifts in rainfall patterns. Reduced water availability, due to recurrent and unforeseen droughts, would alter the competitive balance between crops and some weed species, intensifying the crop-weed competition pressure. Although it is recognized that the weed pressure associated with climate change is a significant threat to crop production, either through increased temperatures, rainfall shift, and elevated CO 2 levels, the current knowledge of this effect is very sparse. A few models that have attempted to predict these interactions are discussed in this paper, since these models could play an

  17. Developing effective communication materials on the health effects of climate change for vulnerable groups: a mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreslake, Jennifer M; Price, Katherine M; Sarfaty, Mona

    2016-09-07

    Individuals with chronic health conditions or low socioeconomic status (SES) are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Health communication can provide information on the management of these impacts. This study tested, among vulnerable audiences, whether viewing targeted materials increases knowledge about the health impacts of climate change and strength of climate change beliefs, and whether each are associated with stronger intentions to practice recommended behaviors. Low-SES respondents with chronic conditions were recruited for an online survey in six cities. Respondents were shown targeted materials illustrating the relationship between climate change and chronic conditions. Changes in knowledge and climate change beliefs (pre- and post-test) and behavioral intentions (post-test only) were tested using McNemar tests of marginal frequencies of two binary outcomes or paired t-tests, and multivariable linear regression. Qualitative interviews were conducted among target audiences to triangulate survey findings and make recommendations on the design of messages. Respondents (N = 122) reflected the target population regarding income, educational level and prevalence of household health conditions. (1) Knowledge. Significant increases in knowledge were found regarding: groups that are most vulnerable to heat (children [p concise language, how climate change affects health conditions and how to engage in protective adaptation behaviors.

  18. A vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Steven Reece

    Full Text Available Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri, Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii, Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis, and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium. We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.

  19. Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in human communities near public forests and grasslands: a framework for resource managers and planners

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Paige Fischer; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll; Daniel Murphy; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

    2013-01-01

    Public land management agencies have incorporated the concept of vulnerability into protocols for assessing and planning for climate change impacts on public forests and grasslands. However, resource managers and planners have little guidance for how to address the social aspects of vulnerability in these assessments and plans. Failure to assess social vulnerability to...

  20. Threats and climate risks into vulnerable populations. The role of education in the community resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Javier GONZÁLEZ-GAUDIANO

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, challenges in the contemporary world lead to the education to propose its current themes. Environmental education is not an exception. The magnitude and complexity of global environmental problems such as the climate change, the ocean acidification and the loss of the biodiversity have generated issues that had attracted pedagogical attention for decades. This article presents the early results of a study aimed at assessing the perception of risk and vulnerability of communities that frequently are affected by extreme hydrometeorological phenomena. These findings could be a starting point for the design of educational programs aimed at strengthening community resilience. We start from the assumption based on socio-cognitive factors that determine the dispositions in order to the populations can act under similar circumstances, we can find key elements that allow us to infer their reactions to difficult situations. This considering their previous experience and their singularities in the adaptation to climate change, in the social learning in extreme situations and in the identification of their strengths and weaknesses.

  1. Examining global electricity supply vulnerability to climate change using a high-fidelity hydropower dam model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean W D; Ng, Jia Yi; Galelli, Stefano

    2017-07-15

    An important and plausible impact of a changing global climate is altered power generation from hydroelectric dams. Here we project 21st century global hydropower production by forcing a coupled, global hydrological and dam model with three General Circulation Model (GCM) projections run under two emissions scenarios. Dams are simulated using a detailed model that accounts for plant specifications, storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry and realistic, optimized operations. We show that the inclusion of these features can have a non-trivial effect on the simulated response of hydropower production to changes in climate. Simulation results highlight substantial uncertainty in the direction of change in globally aggregated hydropower production (~-5 to +5% change in mean global production by the 2080s under a high emissions scenario, depending on GCM). Several clearly impacted hotspots are identified, the most prominent of which encompasses the Mediterranean countries in southern Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. In this region, hydropower production is projected to be reduced by approximately 40% on average by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. After accounting for each country's dependence on hydropower for meeting its current electricity demands, the Balkans countries emerge as the most vulnerable (~5-20% loss in total national electricity generation depending on country). On the flipside, a handful of countries in Scandinavia and central Asia are projected to reap a significant increase in total electrical production (~5-15%) without investing in new power generation facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L

    2016-11-01

    Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity

  3. The role of CVS (and FIA) data and genetic tests in assessing species vulnerability to invasive pests and changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.A. Sniezko; H.E. Lintz

    2017-01-01

    United States tree species and their associated ecosystems, managed forests, and urban plantings are increasingly vulnerable to non-native invasive pathogens and insects as well as effects associated with a changing climate. Some species, such as whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), have been proposed for listing under the Endangered Species Act. To...

  4. Vulnerability of the Tibetan Pastoral Systems to Climate and Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Wang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate and global change on Tibetan pastoral systems have become increasingly evident. Thus, a significant research endeavor is to explore the combined effects of these changes on the livelihoods of herder households and communities, on the adaptation strategies they adopted to respond to the current and expected risks associated with these changes, and on the emerging opportunities that can strengthen their resilience and adaptive capacity. We performed an integrated analysis of the dynamics of Tibetan pastoral systems influenced by climate and global changes by using the analytical framework developed by Ostrom. Climate and global changes have significantly altered the attributes of and the interactions within Tibetan pastoral systems, thus posing great challenges to their sustainable development. We used Nagqu County, a remote area of the northern Tibetan Plateau of China, as a case study to analyze the adaptation strategies adopted by local herders to respond to multiple stressors, as well as the emerging opportunities that they can take advantage of to increase their adaptive capacity. Findings show that although local herders have developed various adaptation strategies, such as planting forage grass, buying fodder from the market, renting pastures, joining formal or informal cooperatives, and diversifying livelihoods, social, cultural, and institutional challenges still exist. To enhance the adaptive capacity of herders and to reduce their vulnerability, we recommend that future rangeland policies and programs promote: (1 comprehensive support for formal or informal pastoral cooperatives, (2 development of the rangeland economy to take advantage of the multifunctionalities of rangeland ecosystems, and (3 revitalization of the mobility paradigm to allow the flexible use of rangelands.

  5. Livelihoods and climate change : combining disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change adaptation in a new approach to the reduction of vulnerability and poverty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, I.; Soussan, J.; Hammill, A.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides a framework for researchers and policy-makers that are taking action on climate change adaptation. It presents innovative and sustainable ways to respond to the changing global climate. It focuses, in particular, on international research and policy initiatives on climate change, vulnerable communities and adaptation. The international and multi-disciplinary task force that put the framework together includes experts from the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, conservation and poverty reduction. The report emphasizes that successful climate change adaptation should be accomplished through actions that reduce the vulnerabilities of poor people and poor countries because people's livelihoods shape poverty and their ability to move out of poverty. The task force identifies the need to integrate a climate change adaptation approach based on the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in different parts of the world. The examples cited in this report include: (1) mangrove rehabilitation in Vietnam, (2) community-based rang eland rehabilitation for carbon sequestration in Sudan, (3) agro-ecological roots of resilience in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala, and (4) watershed restoration and development in Maharashtra State, India. refs., figs

  6. Possible consequences of climate change on the Swedish energy sector - impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gode, Jenny; Axelsson, Johan; Eriksson, Sara; Holmgren, Kristina; Hovsenius, Gunnar; Kjellstroem, Erik; Larsson, Per; Lundstroem, Love; Persson, Gunn

    2007-06-01

    The events of recent years clearly demonstrate the far-reaching consequences of extreme weather situations on the energy system, particularly in the case of severe damage to transmission lines in connection with violent storms. Many climate researchers predict an increase in extreme weather events. Against this background, in 2005 Elforsk initiated this project where the aim has been to examine how climate change can affect plant operation, production conditions and energy usage patterns, how undesirable consequences can be predicted and what long-term measures may be necessary. Another central objective has been to bring about a dialogue between climate researchers, energy consultants/engineers and buyers for the energy industry. The inclusion of both positive and negative consequences has been an important ambition of the project. One key aspect of the project has been to develop climate scenarios for the next 20-25 years that describe possible changes in climate variables with relevance for the energy system. Based on these and literature studies, contact with experts and internal assessments, an analysis has been made of the possible impacts on hydropower, wind power, biofuel supply, natural gas supply, the power transmission network and energy usage. The project findings, which have also been discussed at a workshop with representatives from the energy industry, did not reveal any acute need for adaptation aside from those measures already being taken, for example to make the transmission system less vulnerable to weather conditions. Furthermore, the results indicate increased production potential for both hydropower and wind power. The production potential for hydropower stations from the Dalaelven River northwards would appear to increase by 2-10%. Estimates for the southern watercourses are less certain, but the production potential may decrease. Since around 80% of the country's hydropower is produced in the northern watercourses, this indicates an

  7. Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

  8. Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-01

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

  9. Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patt, Anthony G; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-26

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.

  10. Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of forests in the Indian Western Himalayan region: A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujata Upgupta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment at state and regional levels is necessary to develop adaptation strategies for forests in the biogeographically vital Himalayan region. The present study assesses forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change across Himachal Pradesh and presents the priority districts for vulnerability reduction under ‘current climate’ and ‘future climate’ scenarios. Vulnerability of forests under ‘current climate’ scenario is assessed by adopting indicator-based approach, while the vulnerability under ‘future climate’ scenario is assessed using climate and vegetation impact models. Based on the vulnerability index estimated to present the vulnerability of forests under current and projected climate change impacts representing climate driven vulnerability, five districts – Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi and Shimla are identified as priority forest districts for adaptation planning. Identifying vulnerable forest districts and forests will help policy makers and forest managers to prioritize resource allocation and forest management interventions, to restore health and productivity of forests and to build long-term resilience to climate change.

  11. A Conceptual Framework for Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Critical Oil and Gas Infrastructure in the Niger Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Udie

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the Niger Delta is severe, as extreme weather events have inflicted various degrees of stress on critical oil/gas infrastructure. Typically, assets managers and government agencies lack a clear framework for evaluating the vulnerability of these systems. This paper presents a participatory framework for the vulnerability assessment of critical oil/gas infrastructure to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta context. Through a critical review of relevant literature and triangulating observational and exploratory data from the field, this paper has developed a conceptual framework with three elements: (1 a preliminary scoping activity; (2 the vulnerability assessment; and (3 mainstreaming the results into institutional asset management codes. Scoping involves the definition of research aims and objectives, review of prevailing climate burdens and impacts, exploratory investigation, screening for new (planned assets and selection of relevant infrastructure. The emphasis on screening for planned infrastructure is to facilitate the incorporation of sustainable adaptive capacities into the original design of identified systems. A conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment is presented as a robust systematic iterative model for the evaluation of selected assets using an appropriate methodology. In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP is applied while mainstreaming as part of the research framework is emphasised to aid commercial implementation from an expert-based perspective. The study recommends the use of other suitable methodologies and systematic approaches to test the flexibility of the framework.

  12. Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

  13. A systematic review of local vulnerability to climate change in developing country agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, Todd A.; Delaney, Aogán; Tamás, Peter A.; Chesterman, Sabrina; Ericksen, Polly

    2017-01-01

    In the mid-2000s, several highly-cited papers called for improving conceptual coherence and methodological transparency in vulnerability research to support greater policy relevance. As reducing vulnerability rises on political agendas, identifying empirically validated measures will become

  14. Vulnerability Assessment of the Livelihoods in Tanzania’s Semi-Arid Agro-Ecological Zone under Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Msafiri Y. Mkonda

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite the established literature on the vulnerability to climate change in various parts of Tanzania, it is worthwhile to assess the extent of this vulnerability of the peoples’ livelihoods and predict its future outcome. This is particularly important in the vulnerable ecosystems, that is, the semi-arid zones of Tanzania where the people’s livelihoods are highly attached to the declining local condition. The present study aims to assess the livelihoods vulnerability in Kongwa District, the semi-arid zone of Central Tanzania. In doing so, a wide range of methods were employed during data collection and analyses including surveys, informative interviews, discussions and observation. The study sampled 400 (≤10% respondents during a survey. The Mann-Kendall Test with SPSS V20, Microsoft Excel and Theme content techniques were used for data analyses. The results indicate that climate stress has adversely impacted the quality of soil, vegetation, crop yields and intensified environmental degradation. Since most people depend upon the mentioned affected aspects, it is expected that also the level of livelihood vulnerability has elevated. Further, this situation has greatly contributed to increased poverty and thus, propagates the “tragedy of the common” to the available environmental resources. As a response to increased vulnerability, some farmers have abandoned thousands of hectares of agricultural farms that seemed to be less productive. Despite this, slight measures have been taken by both the government and other key stakeholders to limit vulnerability. The findings of this study provide a theoretical and practical basis for coordinating a sustainable man-environment relationship, ensuring the sustainability of the environment which is the major source of peoples’ livelihoods.

  15. A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balica, S.F.; Wright, N.G.; Van der Meulen, F.

    2012-01-01

    Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical

  16. A systematic review of local vulnerability to climate change: In search of transparency, coherence and comparability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delaney, A.; Chesterman, S.; Crane, T.A.; Tamas, P.A.; Ericksen, P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Because vulnerability is a conceptual construct rather than a directly observable phenomenon, most vulnerability assessments measure a set of “vulnerability indicators”. In order to identify the core approaches and range of variation in the field, we conducted a systematic literature review on local

  17. Exploring vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of communities in the forest zone of Cameroon.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Tiani, A.M.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding vulnerability to the impacts of global environmental change and identifying adaptation measures to cope with these impacts require localized investigations that can help find actual and exact answers to the questions about who and what are vulnerable, to what are they vulnerable, how

  18. Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWeber, Jefferson T.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30‐day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold‐water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid‐century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation

  19. Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWeber, Jefferson T; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-06-01

    Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30-day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species' distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid-century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our

  20. Why and How the Dairy Farmers of India are Vulnerable to the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, A.; Gupta, J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change and variability has added many atrociousness to India's food security challenges and the relationship between the asset components of farmers and climate change is always complex. In India, dairy farming substantially contributes towards the food security and always plays a supportive role to agriculture from the adversities. This study provides an overview of the socio economic and livelihood vulnerability of small holder dairy farmers of India to climate change and variability in three dimensions — sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity by combining 70 indicators and 12 major components. The livelihood and socio economic vulnerability of dairy farmers to climate change and variability is assessed at taluka level in India through detailed house hold level data of livelihoods of Western Ghats region of India collected by several levels of survey and through Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) techniques from selected farmers complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and other secondary data sources. The index score of dairy based livelihoods of Maharashtra was highly negative compared to other states with about 50 percent of farmers having high level of vulnerability with significant tradeoff between milk productivity and health, food, natural disasters-climate variability components. It finds that ensuring food security in the scenario of climate change will be a dreadful challenge and recommends identification of different potential options depending on local contexts at grass root level, the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, focusing on improving the adaptive capacity component, provision of livelihood security, preparing the extensionists of Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs)- universities to deal with the risks through extensive training programmes, long-term relief measures in the event of natural disasters, workshops on climate science and communication and promoting farmer centric extension system.

  1. A Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process for Low-Lying, Communities Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristi Tatebe

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available While the province of British Columbia (BC, Canada, provides guidelines for flood risk management, it is local governments’ responsibility to delineate their own flood vulnerability, assess their risk, and integrate these with planning policies to implement adaptive action. However, barriers such as the lack of locally specific data and public perceptions about adaptation options mean that local governments must address the need for adaptation planning within a context of scientific uncertainty, while building public support for difficult choices on flood-related climate policy and action. This research demonstrates a process to model, visualize and evaluate potential flood impacts and adaptation options for the community of Delta, in Metro Vancouver, across economic, social and environmental perspectives. Visualizations in 2D and 3D, based on hydrological modeling of breach events for existing dike infrastructure, future sea level rise and storm surges, are generated collaboratively, together with future adaptation scenarios assessed against quantitative and qualitative indicators. This ‘visioning package’ is being used with staff and a citizens’ Working Group to assess the performance, policy implications and social acceptability of the adaptation strategies. Recommendations based on the experience of the initiative are provided that can facilitate sustainable future adaptation actions and decision-making in Delta and other jurisdictions.

  2. Mapping soil organic carbon content and composition across Australia to assess vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viscarra Rossel, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    We can effectively monitor soil condition—and develop sound policies to offset the emissions of greenhouse gases—only with accurate data from which to define baselines. Currently, estimates of soil organic C for countries or continents are either unavailable or largely uncertain because they are derived from sparse data, with large gaps over many areas of the Earth. Here, we derive spatially explicit estimates, and their uncertainty, of the distribution and stock of organic C content and composition in the soil of Australia. The composition of soil organic C may be characterized by chemical separation or physical fractionation based on either particle size or particle density (Skjemstad et al., 2004; Gregorich et al., 2006; Kelleher&Simpson, 2006; Zimmermann et al., 2007). In Australia, for example, Skjemstad et al. (2004) used physical separation of soil samples into 50-2000 and solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, giving the three OC pools, particulate organic carbon (POC), humic organic carbon (HOC) and resistant organic carbon (ROC; charcoal or char-carbon). We assembled and harmonized data from several sources to produce the most comprehensive set of data on the current stock of organic C in soil of the continent. Using them, we have produced a fine spatial resolution baseline map of organic C, POC, HOC and ROC at the continental scale. In this presentation I will describe how we made the maps and how we use them to assess the vulnerability of soil organic C to for instance climate change.

  3. Adaptation to Climate Change in Risk and Vulnerability Analysis on a Municipal Level, a basis for further work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mossberg Sonnek, Karin; Lindberg, Anna; Lindgren, Johan

    2007-12-01

    The aim of Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (RVA) at local authority level in Sweden is to increase the capacity of local authorities to handle crises and to reduce vulnerability in the community. RVA processes could be an appropriate starting-point for discussions on how the community is influenced by climate change and how its effects could be reduced using various adjustment measures. In the report we present four methods: ROSA, MVA, IBERO and the Car Dun AB method. These have all been developed to support Swedish local authority RVA processes. We also present five international frameworks that have been developed by the organisations UNDP, USAID, UKCIP, C-CIARN and CSIRO to help decision-makers and stakeholders to adapt to climate change. Together, these descriptions form a foundation for continuing the work being done within the project Climatools, in which tools are being produced to be used by local authorities in adapting to climate change. In the report, we also discuss the concepts 'risk', 'vulnerability' and 'adaptation' and how analysis of adaptation to climate change has changed in recent years

  4. Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Gabler, Christopher A.; Stagg, Camille L.; Grace, James B.

    2016-01-01

    Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate-change related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

  5. Beyond just sea-level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J; Enwright, Nicholas M; Day, Richard H; Gabler, Christopher A; Stagg, Camille L; Grace, James B

    2016-01-01

    Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  6. A Case Study in Caribbean Climate Change: Impacts on Crop Suitability and Small Farmer Vulnerability in St. Elizabeth, Jamaica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, W. R.; Gamble, D. W.; Popke, J.

    2013-12-01

    This paper examines some of the implications of climate change for farming in the Caribbean, through an analysis of future crop suitability and a case study of climate variability and agricultural practices in St. Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica. To assess potential changes in Caribbean agriculture, we present results from a water budget model based on a 100-year regional climate projection of temperature and precipitation for the circum-Caribbean basin. We find that future water deficits in the region are climate type-dependent. Savanna climates experience the largest annual changes, while semi-arid environments are greatly impacted in the spring. When the impacts of temperature and precipitation are considered separately, we find that predicted future warming, and the associated increase in evapotranspiration, has a slightly larger climatological effect on crop water need than predicted decreases in precipitation. To illustrate how a changing climate regime may impact agricultural practices, we present results from recent fieldwork in St. Elizabeth Parish, one of the main farming regions on the island of Jamaica. Drawing on data from farmer interviews and a recently-installed weather mesonet, we highlight the ways in which local microclimates influence farmer livelihood strategies and community-level vulnerability. Initial results suggest that farmers are experiencing greater climate variability, and that communities with Savanna and semi-arid type climates may be more susceptible to drought than communities in wetter, higher-elevation microclimates. These changes have enhanced the importance of irrigation technology and water management strategies for successful farming. In this context, we argue, large, well-capitalized farmers may be better able to manage the uncertainties associated with climate change, leading to an uneven landscape of vulnerability across the region.

  7. Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Périé

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range in Quebec (Canada rather than opportunities (increase in suitability. Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5–21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

  8. Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Périé, Catherine; de Blois, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

  9. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012. An indicator-based report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-15

    This European Environment Agency (EEA) report presents information on past and projected climate change and related impacts in Europe, based on a range of indicators. The report also assesses the vulnerability of society, human health and ecosystems in Europe and identifies those regions in Europe most at risk from climate change. Furthermore, the report discusses the principle sources of uncertainty for the indicators and notes how monitoring and scenario development can improve our understanding of climate change, its impacts and related vulnerabilities. Some key findings: The last decade (2002-2011) was the warmest on record in Europe, with European land temperature 1.3 deg. C warmer than the pre-industrial average. Various model projections show that Europe could be 2.5-4 deg. C warmer in the later part of the 21st Century, compared to the 1961-1990 average. Heat waves have increased in frequency and length, causing tens of thousands of deaths over the last decade. The projected increase in heat waves could increase the number of related deaths over the next decades, unless societies adapt, the report says. However, cold-related deaths are projected to decrease in many countries. While precipitation is decreasing in southern regions, it is increasing in northern Europe, the report says. These trends are projected to continue. Climate change is projected to increase river flooding, particularly in northern Europe, as higher temperatures intensify the water cycle. However, it is difficult to discern the influence of climate change in flooding data records for the past. River flow droughts appear to have become more severe and frequent in southern Europe. Minimum river flows are projected to decrease significantly in summer in southern Europe but also in many other parts of Europe to varying degrees. The Arctic is warming faster than other regions. Record low sea ice was observed in the Arctic in 2007, 2011 and 2012, falling to roughly half the minimum extent seen

  10. Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

    2015-04-01

    Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest

  11. Vulnerability of Water Resources under Climate and Land Use Change: Evaluation of Present and Future Threats for Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter; Wesemann, Johannes; Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Schulz, Karsten

    2015-04-01

    Climate and Land Use Change can have severe impacts on natural water resources needed for domestic, agricultural and industrial water use. In order to develop adaptation strategies, it is necessary to assess the present and future vulnerability of the water resources on the basis of water quantity, water quality and adaptive capacity indicators. Therefore a methodological framework was developed within the CC-Ware project and a detailed assessment was performed for Austria. The Water Exploitation Index (WEI) is introduced as a quantitative indicator. It is defined as the ratio between the water demand and the water availability. Water availability is assessed by a high resolution grid-based water balance model, utilizing the meteorological information from bias corrected regional climate models. The demand term can be divided into domestic, agricultural and industrial water demand and is assessed on the water supply association level. The Integrated Groundwater Pollution Load Index (GWPLI) represents an indicator for areas at risk regarding water quality, considering agricultural loads (nitrate pollution loads), potential erosion and potential risks from landfills. Except for the landfills, the information for the current situation is based on the CORINE Landcover data. Future changes were predicted utilizing the PRELUDE land use scenarios. Since vulnerability is also dependent on the adaptive capacity of a system, the Adaptive Capacity Index is introduced. The Adaptive Capacity Index thereby combines the Ecosystem Service Index (ESSI), which represents three water related ecosystem services (Water Provision, Water Quantity Regulation and Water Quality Regulation) and the regional economic capacity expressed by the gross value added. On the basis of these indices, the Overall Vulnerability of the water resources can be determined for the present and the future. For Austria the different indices were elaborated. Maps indicating areas of different levels of

  12. Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria K. Janowiak; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Mladenoff; Emily Peters; Kirk R. Wythers; Weimin Xi; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Linda R. Parker; Amy J. Amman; Brian Bogaczyk; Christine Handler; Ellen Lesch; Peter B. Reich; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Sami Khanal; Feng Liu; Tara Bal; Dustin Bronson; Andrew Burton; Jim Ferris; Jon Fosgitt; Shawn Hagan; Erin Johnston; Evan Kane; Colleen Matula; Ryan O' Connor; Dale Higgins; Matt St. Pierre; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; David Fehringer; Christopher L. Hoving; Gary Johnson; David Neitzel; Michael Notaro; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert Ziel

    2014-01-01

    Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate...

  13. Moving from awareness to action: Advancing climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kershner, Jessi; Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia

    2016-01-01

    The rugged landscapes of northern Idaho and western Montana support biodiverse ecosystems, and provide a variety of natural resources and services for human communities. However, the benefits provided by these ecosystems may be at risk as changing climate magnifies existing stressors and allows new stressors to emerge. Preparation for and response to these potential changes can be most effectively addressed through multi-stakeholder partnerships, evaluating vulnerability of important resources to climate change, and developing response and preparation strategies for managing key natural resources in a changing world. This project will support climate-smart conservation and management across forests of northern Idaho and western Montana through three main components: (1) fostering partnerships among scientists, land managers, regional landowners, conservation practitioners, and the public; (2) assessing the vulnerability of a suite of regionally important resources to climate change and other stressors; and (3) creating a portfolio of adaptation strategies and actions to help resource managers prepare for and respond to the likely impacts of climate change. The results of this project will be used to inform the upcoming land management plan revisions for national forests, helping ensure that the most effective and robust conservation and management strategies are implemented to preserve our natural resources.

  14. Livelihood strategies under the constraints of climate change vulnerability in Quang Nam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casse, Thorkil

    2013-01-01

    This chapter examines how vulnerability can be measured in quantitative terms. Households whose livelihoods are based on economic activities like acacia production and shrimp farming suffered the most....

  15. Vulnerability of U.S. Agriculture and Energy Sectors to Changes in Climate and Socioeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Bramer, L.; Fortin, D.; Huang, M.; Hathaway, J.; Kyle, P.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Liu, Y.; Patel, P.; Pulsipher, T.; Rice, J.; Tesfa, T. K.; Vernon, C. R.; Zhou, Y.

    2014-12-01

    A prominent integrated assessment model (IAM), the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), has been coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM) of the Community Earth system model (CESM) to assess the vulnerability of the US agriculture and energy sectors to future water shortages under changing climate and socioeconomics. This study utilizes the regionalized version of GCAM for the U.S. with 50-state. GCAM-USA includes a detailed representation of water demands and tracks them at multiple spatial scales and annual scale. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and 1/8o spatial resolution for input to CLM, which has been coupled to a river routing model and generic water management model applicable globally at 1/2o resolution and regionally at 1/8o resolution. The coupled modeling framework demonstrated reasonable ability to simulate the historical flow regulation and water supply over the continental U.S. The coupled modeling framework has been used to investigate: 1) Which water use sector (agriculture or energy) and subbasins in the conterminous U.S. will experience water deficits in future decades; 2) What are the drivers for the deficit (i.e., water availability, water demands, or both); 3) Will climate mitigation policies alleviate or exacerbate the situation; and lastly 4) How will the frequency , severity, and spatial extent of water deficits (hot spots) evolve under a non-mitigation scenario (RCP8.5) in which conventional fossil-fueled technologies prevail versus a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) in which the carbon price causes a shift toward renewables and expansion of bioenergy productions. Results show that irrigation will face greater water deficit overall except in the northeastern U.S. Water deficit is greatest in the western U.S. except the Pacific Northwest. Human footprints on the regulated flows are most pronounced over the Rio Grande, Colorado, Great

  16. Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: A case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslam, Abdul Qayyum; Ahmad, Sajid R; Ahmad, Iftikhar; Hussain, Yawar; Hussain, Muhammad Sameem

    2017-02-15

    Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes is crucial to manage their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in Southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12 to 15mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15 to 19mm. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts on agriculture and livestock, food security, water resources, public health and economic status. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario was calculated; drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors were modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60years from base case 1998-2002. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. This evaluation also highlights the result of cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean & worst case) for floods and droughts in Southern Punjab. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events impact assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. This paper is an effort to highlight importance of bottom up approaches to deal with climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Sources of vulnerability to a variable and changing climate among smallholder households in Zimbabwe: A participatory analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Rurinda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability analysis is essential for targeting adaptation options to impacts of climate variability and change, particularly in diverse systems with limited resources such as smallholder farms in sub-Saharan Africa. To investigate the nature and sources of vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change, we analysed long term climate data and interviewed farmers individually and in groups in Makoni and Hwedza districts in eastern Zimbabwe. Farmers’ perceptions of changes in climate characteristics matched the recorded data. Total seasonal rainfall has not changed, but variability in the rainfall distribution within seasons has increased. The mean daily minimum temperature increased by 0.2 °C per decade in both Makoni and Hwedza. The mean daily maximum temperature increased by 0.5 °C per decade in Hwedza. The number of days with temperatures >30 °C also increased in Hwedza. Farmers indicated that livestock production was sensitive to drought due to lack of feed, affecting resource-endowed farmers, who own relatively large herds of cattle. Crop production was more sensitive to increased rainfall variability, largely affecting farmers with intermediate resource endowment. Availability of wild fruits and social safety nets were affected directly and indirectly by extreme temperatures and increased rainfall variability, impacting on the livelihoods of resource-constrained farmers. There was no evidence of a simple one-to-one relationship between vulnerability and farmer resource endowment, suggesting that vulnerability to climate variability and change is complex and not simply related to assets. Alongside climate variability and change, farmers were also faced with biophysical and socioeconomic challenges such as lack of fertilizers, and these problems had strong interactions with adaptation options to climate change. Diversifying crops and cultivars, staggering planting date and managing soil fertility were

  18. Possible Climate Change/Variability and Human Impacts, Vulnerability of African Drought Prone Regions, its Water Resources and Capacity Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, T. Y. Y.; Qin, X.; Ito, M.; Hülsmann, S.; Xixi, L.; Liong, S. Y.; Disse, M.; Koivusalo, H. J.

    2017-12-01

    This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and landuse to drought-prone regions in West, Southern, and Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid-20th century. Based on the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, and that of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st Century and could become more vulnerable to impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase up to 8oC (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillation which could also affect water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions, are also discussed. Given traditional climate and hydrologic data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill in the data gap for Africa in future.

  19. Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

    2015-09-22

    We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

  20. THE VULNERABILITY OF THE BAIA MARE URBAN SYSTEM (ROMANIA TO EXTREME CLIMATE PHENOMENA DURING THE WARM SEMESTER OF THE YEAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DRAGOTĂ CARMEN

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The geographical position of the Baia Mare Urban System (intra-hilly depression favours the occurrence of a wide range of extreme climate phenomena which, coupled with the industrial profile of the city (non-ferrous mining and metallurgical industry triggering typical emissions (CO2, SOX, particulate matters and Pb, might pose a significant threat to human health. The article is aiming to assess the occurrence, frequency and amplitude of these extreme climate phenomena based on monthly and daily extreme climatic values from Baia Mare weather station in order to identify the areas more exposed. A GIS-based qualitative-heuristic method was used, each extreme climatic hazard being evaluated on a 1 to 3 scale according to its significance/impact in the study area and assigned with a weight (w and a rank (r, resulting the climate hazard map for the warm semester of the year. The authors further relate the areas exposed to the selected extreme climatic events to socio-economic aspects: demographic and economic in order to delineate the spatial distribution of the environmental vulnerability in the Baia Mare Urban System.

  1. Climate Compatible Development in the Mongolia Steppe: analysis of vulnerability and adaptation response to global changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojima, D. S.; Togtokh, C.; Galvin, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    INTRODUCTION: Climate change and variability, market and policy changes are shaping pastoral communities' decisions on what pathways their future livelihoods will take and how the steppe landscapes and river basins, are managed. Recent droughts and damaging winter storms (zuds) of the past two decades have exacerbated the situation and undermined the natural capital on which the pastoral livelihoods depend upon. River basins are critical natural resources well-being of social-ecological systems in Mongolia. River basins provide the ecosystem services which support pastoral communities and industrial and urban development. Green development strategies are strongly dependent on water resources. Consequently, integrated planning of river basin management is needed to maintain these critical ecosystem services to meet the multiple needs of livelihoods of communities in these basins and to support sustainable development activities within the basins. For this study our team worked in nine sums (i.e., county level administrative areas) in three river basins in two provinces (aimags) to collect household data from 144 households. We also collected census data from the aimags and national level to understand trends at the level of ecosystems and river basins. We have selected 3 sums in each river basis, representing forest steppe, steppe and desert steppe regions for comparison across river basins and ecological zones. FINDINGS: Integrated planning efforts would be enhanced through, one, use of a social-ecological framework and, two, the development of a cross-ministerial working group to address natural resource considerations. Across the three basins agriculture, pastoral, industrial, and urban needs vie for similar ecosystem services. The natural capital and ecosystem services of these basins need to be assessed to understand the vulnerability and capacity of the resources. The most frequently listed "best coping strategy" across all ecosystem types was for herders to

  2. Investigation of drought-vulnerable regions in North Korea using remote sensing and cloud computing climate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jinhang; Lim, Joongbin; Lee, Kyoo-Seock

    2018-02-08

    Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters in the world and leads to serious challenges that affect both the natural environment and human societies. North Korea (NK) has frequently suffered from severe and prolonged droughts since the second half of the twentieth century. These droughts affect the growing conditions of agricultural crops, which have led to food shortages in NK. However, it is not easy to obtain ground data because NK is one of the most closed-off societies in the world. In this situation, remote sensing (RS) techniques and cloud computing climate data (CCCD) can be used for drought monitoring in NK. RS-derived drought indices and CCCD were used to determine the drought-vulnerable regions in the spring season in NK. After the results were compared and discussed, the following conclusions were derived: (1) 10.0% of the total area of NK is estimated to be a drought-vulnerable region. The most susceptible regions to drought appear in the eastern and western coastal regions, far from BaekDu-DaeGan (BDDG), while fewer drought regions are found near BDDG and the Nahngrim Mountains. The drought-vulnerable regions are the coastal regions of South Hamgyong Province, North Hamgyong Province, South Pyongan Province, and South Hwanghae Province. The latter region is the food basket of NK. (2) In terms of land cover, the drought-vulnerable regions mainly consisted of croplands and mixed forest.

  3. Health, Climate Change and Energy Vulnerability: A Retrospective Assessment of Strategic Health Authority Policy and Practice in England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Richardson B.Sc., Ph.D., RN., DipDN., CPsychol., PGCE.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Background A number of policy documents suggest that health services should be taking climate change and sustainability seriously and recommendations have been made to mitigate and adapt to the challenges health care providers will face. Actions include, for example, moving towards locally sourced food supplies, reducing waste, energy consumption and travel, and including sustainability in policies and strategies. A Strategic Health Authority (SHA is part of the National Health Service (NHS in England. They are responsible for developing strategies for the local health services and ensuring high-quality performance. They manage the NHS locally and are a key link between the U.K. Department of Health and the NHS. They also ensure that national priorities are integrated into local plans. Thus they are in a key position to influence policies and practices to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climate change and promote sustainability. Aim The aim of this study was to review publicly available documents produced by Strategic Health Authorities (SHA to assess the extent to which current activity and planning locally takes into consideration climate change and energy vulnerability. Methods A retrospective thematic content analysis of publicly available materials was undertaken by two researchers over a six month period in 2008. These materials were obtained from the websites of the 10 SHAs in England. Materials included annual reports, plans, policies and strategy documents. Results Of the 10 SHAs searched, 4 were found to have an absence of content related to climate change and sustainability. Of the remaining 6 SHAs that did include content related to climate change and energy vulnerability on their websites consistent themes were seen to emerge. These included commitment to a regional sustainability framework in collaboration with other agencies in the pursuit and promotion of sustainable development. Results indicate that many SHAs in England

  4. Livelihood strategies under climate change vulnerability in Quang Nam province, Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casse, Thorkil

    Analysis of the transformation of primary to plantation forest under risk of severe natural disasters in central Vietnam. The articles argues that the process could be seen as an example of government induced vulnerability......Analysis of the transformation of primary to plantation forest under risk of severe natural disasters in central Vietnam. The articles argues that the process could be seen as an example of government induced vulnerability...

  5. New directions in climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment: summary of a workshop

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Subcommittee for a Workshop on New Directions in Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment; National Academies Press (U.S.); National Research Council (U.S.). Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change; Brewer, Jennifer F

    ...; adaptation is inevitable. The remaining question is to what extent humans will anticipate and reduce undesired consequences of climate change, or postpone response until after climate change impacts have altered ecological...

  6. Potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion vulnerability across the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Segura; G. Sun; S. McNulty; Y. Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change-induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions...

  7. Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: A conservation based vulnerability framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debbie Jewitt; Barend F.N. Erasmus; Peter S. Goodman; Timothy G. O' Connor; William W. Hargrove; Damian M. Maddalena; Ed. T.F. Witkowski

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change is having marked influences on species distributions, phenology and ecosystem composition and raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies. Conservation planning has only recently begun to adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change. We propose a method to incorporate climate-dynamic environmental...

  8. Final Report: Synthesis of aquatic climate change vulnerability assessments for the Interior West

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megan M. Friggens; Carly K. Woodlief

    2015-01-01

    Water is a critical resource for humans and ecological systems in the western United States. Aquatic ecosystems including lakes, rivers, riparian areas and wetlands, are at high risk of climate impacts because they experience relatively high exposure to climate fluctuations and extremes. In turn, impacts arising from climate change are far reaching because these...

  9. Approaching to a model for evaluating of the vulnerability of the vegetable covers of Colombia in a possible climatic change using SIG

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez Rey, Hilda Jeanneth

    2002-01-01

    This technical paper summarizes the gradual thesis Approach to a model for evaluating of the vulnerability of the vegetation covers in Colombia in face of a possible global climate change (Gutierrez, 2001). It present the methodologies and results of the construction of a prospective model using GIS (Geographical Information Systems) for evaluating the vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia, in face of a possible global climate chance. The analysis of the vulnerability of the possible impact on vegetation and for identification of its vulnerability as a consequence of climate change was carried out by application of the method of direct function establishing, recommended by IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1999). An analysis of the displacement of Life Zones of Holdridge was made under a scenario with duplication of the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere and identified vegetation affected by displacement. These results were adjusted to the bioclimatic and biogeographic conditions of the country. The Model of Vulnerability of the Vegetation Covers of Colombia was developed in Spatial Modeler Language, of Arc/lnfo and Erdas Imagine. This model is able to generate the spatial distribution of the climatic variables and Bioclimatic Units, under past, present and future climate scenarios, as well as to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia in face a climatic change. For the improvement of the model of Vulnerability, specially the intermediate products, it was subdivided in three Phases or Subsystems: In the First Phase or Present Subsystem, the sub models generate a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a currently scenario of Climatic Line Base 1961-1990. In the Second Phase or Subsystem of Climate Change, the sub models develop a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a future climate Scenario with duplication of the contained of the CO 2 in the atmosphere

  10. Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Security in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saloua Rochdane

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This work analyzes satellite and socioeconomic data to explore the relationship between food and wood demand and supply, expressed in terms of net primary production (NPP, in Morocco. A vulnerability index is defined as the ratio of demand to supply as influenced by population, affluence, technology and climate indicators. The present situation (1995–2007, as well as projections of demand and supply, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Scenarios A2 and B2, are analyzed for a 2025 horizon. We find that the food NPP demand increased by 34.5%, whereas the wood consumption NPP demand decreased by 19.3% between 1995 and 2007. The annual NPP required to support the population’s food and wood appropriation was 29.73 million tons of carbon (MTC in 2007, while the landscape NPP production for the same year was 60.24 MTC; indicating that the population appropriates about 50% of the total NPP resources. Both scenarios show increases in demand and decreases in supply. Under A2, it would take more than 1.25 years for terrestrial ecosystems in Morocco to produce the NPP appropriated by populations in one year. This number is 0.70 years under B2. This already high vulnerability for food and wood products is likely to be exacerbated with climate changes and population increase.

  11. Vulnerability assessment of skiing-dependent businesses to the effects of climate change in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, David Michael

    This qualitative study examines the potential positive and negative socio-economic impacts that may emerge from the long-term effects of climate change on skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada. My goal was to determine whether or not skiing-related tourism in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s is more or less socio-economically vulnerable to the effects of climate change on snow cover, temperatures and ski season length at ski resorts in the parks. My study explored the level of awareness and personal perceptions of 60 skiing-dependent business managers about how the impact of climate change on ski resorts may influence future socio-economics of ski tourism businesses. I employed a vulnerability assessment approach and adopted some elements of grounded theory. My primary data sources are interviews with managers and the outcome of the geographical factors index (GFI). Supporting methods include: an analysis and interpretation of climate model data and an interpretation of the economic analysis of skiing in the parks. The interview data were sorted and coded to establish concepts and findings by interview questions, while the GFI model rated and ranked 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. The findings answered the research questions and helped me conclude what the future socio-economic vulnerability may be of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks. The interviews revealed that managers are not informed about climate change and they have not seen any urgency to consider the effects on business. The GFI revealed that the ski resorts in the parks ranked in the top ten of 24 ski resorts in the Cordillera based on 14 common geographical factors. The economic reports suggest skiing is the foundation of the winter economy in the parks and any impact on skiing would directly impact other skiing-dependent businesses. Research indicates that the effects of climate change may have less economic impact on skiing

  12. Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.

    2014-12-01

    GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest

  13. Assessing social vulnerability in African urban context. The challenge to cope with climate change induced hazards by communities and households

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabisch, Sigrun; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Social vulnerability assessment remains central in discourses on global climatic change and takes a more pertinent meaning considering that natural disasters in African countries continue to deeply affect human settlements and destroys human livelihoods. In recent years, in particular large territories and growing cities have experienced severe weather events. Among them are river and flash floods, affecting the social and economic assets of local populations. The impact of the damage related to floods is not only perceptible during seasonal events but also during unexpected larger disasters which place a particular burden on local population and institutions to adapt effectively to increasing climatic pressures. Important features for social vulnerability assessment are the increasing severity of the physical damages, the shortcoming of social and technical infrastructure, the complexity of land management/market, the limited capacity of local institutions and last but not least the restricted capacities of local population to resist these events. Understanding vulnerability implies highlighting and interlinking relevant indicators and/or perceptions encompassed in four main dimensions: social, institutional, physical and attitudinal vulnerability. Case studies in Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa were carried out to obtain insights into the context-related conditions, behavior routines and survival networks in urban areas in west and east Africa. Using a combination of tools (e.g. focus group discussions, transect walks, interviews) we investigated in close cooperation with African partners how households and communities are being prepared to cope with, as well as to recover from floods. A comprehensive process of dealing with floods can be described based on sequential attributes concerning i) Anticipation before a flood occurs, ii) Resistance and coping activities during a flood event and, iii) Recovery and reconstruction afterwards. A participatory

  14. Isolating social influences on vulnerability to earthquake shaking: identifying cost-effective mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhloscaidh, Mairead Nic; McCloskey, John; Pelling, Mark; Naylor, Mark

    2013-04-01

    Until expensive engineering solutions become more universally available, the objective targeting of resources at demonstrably effective, low-cost interventions might help reverse the trend of increasing mortality in earthquakes. Death tolls in earthquakes are the result of complex interactions between physical effects, such as the exposure of the population to strong shaking, and the resilience of the exposed population along with supporting critical infrastructures and institutions. The identification of socio-economic factors that contribute to earthquake mortality is crucial to identifying and developing successful risk management strategies. Here we develop a quantitative methodology more objectively to assess the ability of communities to withstand earthquake shaking, focusing on, in particular, those cases where risk management performance appears to exceed or fall below expectations based on economic status. Using only published estimates of the shaking intensity and population exposure for each earthquake, data that is available for earthquakes in countries irrespective of their level of economic development, we develop a model for mortality based on the contribution of population exposure to shaking only. This represents an attempt to remove, as far as possible, the physical causes of mortality from our analysis (where we consider earthquake engineering to reduce building collapse among the socio-economic influences). The systematic part of the variance with respect to this model can therefore be expected to be dominated by socio-economic factors. We find, as expected, that this purely physical analysis partitions countries in terms of basic socio-economic measures, for example GDP, focusing analytical attention on the power of economic measures to explain variance in observed distributions of earthquake risk. The model allows the definition of a vulnerability index which, although broadly it demonstrates the expected income-dependence of vulnerability to

  15. Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

    2017-10-01

    Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify

  16. New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria K. Janowiak; Anthony W. D' Amato; Christopher W. Swanston; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Stephen Matthews; Matthew P. Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jacob S. Fraser; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia Butler-Leopold; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Diane Burbank; John Campbell; Charles Cogbill; Matthew J. Duveneck; Marla R. Emery; Nicholas Fisichelli; Jane Foster; Jennifer Hushaw; Laura Kenefic; Amanda Mahaffey; Toni Lyn Morelli; Nicholas J. Reo; Paul G. Schaberg; K. Rogers Simmons; Aaron Weiskittel; Sandy Wilmot; David Hollinger; Erin Lane; Lindsey Rustad; Pamela H. Templer

    2018-01-01

    Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information...

  17. Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

  18. Using climate-soil-socioeconomic parameters for a drought vulnerability assessment in a semi-arid region: Application at the region of El Hodna, (M’sila, Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boultif Meriem

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to contribute in assessing and monitoring drought’s vulnerability by developing a GIS-based model to determine vulnerable areas to this natural hazard; the model utilizes a series of agricultural, statistical, meteorological and remotely sensed data, using GIS weighed ponderation and multicriteria analysis decision making, with the integration of three components: climatic sensibility, soil sensibility and socioeconomic sensibility. The result is a vulnerability map classified into five classes according to pixel values. Very Vulnerable class forms 19.46% of the study area, vulnerable class forms 32.81% and 21.37% of the area is not vulnerable, the study presents a modeling procedure of which the final results provide to researchers, users and decision makers important information on the environmental situation of the study area, for better prediction, and risk management.

  19. Understanding the adaptation deficit: why are poor countries more vulnerable to climate events than rich countries?

    OpenAIRE

    Samuel Fankhauser; Thomas K. J. McDermott

    2014-01-01

    Poor countries are more heavily affected by extreme weather events and future climate change than rich countries. This discrepancy is sometimes known as an adaptation deficit. This paper analyses the link between income and adaptation to climate events theoretically and empirically. We postulate that the adaptation deficit is due to two factors: A demand effect, whereby the demand for the good �climate security� increases with income, and an efficiency effect, which works as a spill-over exte...

  20. How to communicate climate change 'impact and solutions' to vulnerable population of Indian Sundarbans? From theory to practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Abhiroop; Maiti, Subodh Kumar; Bhattacharyya, Santanu

    2016-01-01

    Global consciousness on climate change problems and adaptation revolves around the disparity of information sharing and communication gap between theoretical scientific knowledge at academic end and practical implications of these at the vulnerable populations' end. Coastal communities facing socio-economic stress, like densely populated Sundarbans, are the most affected part of the world, exposed to climate change problems and uncertainties. This article explores the successes of a socio-environmental project implemented at Indian Sundarbans targeted towards economic improvement and aims at communicating environmental conservation through organized community participation. Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) and the wealth rank tool (WRT) were used to form a "group based organization" with 2100 vulnerable families to give them knowledge about capacity building, disaster management, resource conservation and sustainable agriculture practices. Training was conducted with the selected group members on resource conservation, institution building, alternative income generation activities (AIGA) like, Poultry, Small business, Tricycle van, Organic farming and disaster management in a participatory mode. The climate change 'problems-solutions' were communicated to this socio-economically marginalized and ostracized community through participatory educational theater (PET). WRT revealed that 45 % of the population was under economic stress. Out of 2100 beneficiaries', 1015 beneficiaries' started organic farming, 133 beneficiaries' adopted poultry instead of resource exploitive livelihood and 71 beneficiaries' engaged themselves with small business, which was the success stories of this project. To mitigate disaster, 10-committees were formed and the endemic knowledge about climate change was recorded by participatory method validated through survey by structured questionnaire. As a part of this project 87 ha of naked deforested mudflat was reclaimed with endangered

  1. Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: The Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

    2014-01-01

    We quantify the vulnerability of water supply to shortage for the Colorado River Basin and basins of the High Plains and California and assess the sensitivity of their water supply system to future changes in the statistical variability of supply and demand. We do so for current conditions and future socio-economic scenarios within a probabilistic framework that...

  2. Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus ) in a fire-prone landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey A. Falke; Rebecca L. Flitcroft; Jason B. Dunham; Kristina M. McNyset; Paul F. Hessburg; Gordon H. Reeves; C. Tara Marshall

    2015-01-01

    Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River...

  3. Southwest Regional Climate Hub and California Subsidiary Hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile Elias; Caiti Steele; Kris Havstad; Kerri Steenwerth; Jeanne Chambers; Helena Deswood; Amber Kerr; Albert Rango; Mark Schwartz; Peter Stine; Rachel Steele

    2015-01-01

    This report is a joint effort of the Southwest Regional Climate Hub and the California Subsidiary Hub (Sub Hub). The Southwest Regional Climate Hub covers Arizona, California, Hawai‘i and the U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah and contains vast areas of western rangeland, forests, and high-value specialty crops (Figure 1). The California Sub...

  4. Neonatal stress tempers vulnerability of acute stress response in adult socially isolated rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariangela Serra

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Adverse experiences occurred in early life and especially during childhood and adolescence can have negative impact on behavior later in life and the quality of maternal care is considered a critical moment that can considerably influence the development and the stress responsiveness in offspring. This review will assess how the association between neonatal and adolescence stressful experiences such as maternal separation and social isolation, at weaning, may influence the stress responsiveness and brain plasticity in adult rats. Three hours of separation from the pups (3-14 postnatal days significantly increased frequencies of maternal arched-back nursing and licking-grooming by dams across the first 14 days postpartum and induced a long-lasting increase in their blood levels of corticosterone. Maternal separation, which per sedid not modified brain and plasma allopregnanolone and corticosterone levels in adult rats, significantly reduced social isolation-induced decrease of the levels of these hormones. Moreover, the enhancement of corticosterone and allopregnanolone levels induced by foot shock stress in socially isolated animals that were exposed to maternal separation was markedly reduced respect to that observed in socially isolated animals. Our results suggest that in rats a daily brief separation from the mother during the first weeks of life, which per se did not substantially alter adult function and reactivity of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA axis, elicited a significant protection versus the subsequent long-term stressful experience such that induced by social isolation from weaning. Proceedings of the 10th International Workshop on Neonatology · Cagliari (Italy · October 22nd-25th, 2014 · The last ten years, the next ten years in NeonatologyGuest Editors: Vassilios Fanos, Michele Mussap, Gavino Faa, Apostolos Papageorgiou

  5. A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.R. Magness; J.M. Morton; F. Huettmann; F.S. Chapin; A.D. McGuire

    2011-01-01

    Rapid climate change, in conjunction with other anthropogenic drivers, has the potential to cause mass species extinction. To minimize this risk, conservation reserves need to be coordinated at multiple spatial scales because the climate envelopes of many species may shift rapidly across large geographic areas. In addition, novel species assemblages and ecological...

  6. Climate-induced changes in vulnerability to biological threats in the southern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabiu Olatinwo; Qinfeng Guo; Songlin Fei; William Otrosina; Kier Klepzig; Douglas Streett

    2014-01-01

    Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex interactions make...

  7. Vulnerability of United States Bridges to Potential Increases in Flooding from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study assesses the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) are used to capture ...

  8. Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration : Taking stock of current insights through a vulnerability lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, L.M.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing awareness in international policy circles that climate change may be a driver of increased migration flows. In addition to political refugees and economic migrants, climate change-induced migration and environmental migrants are increasingly recognized as categories in human

  9. The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, and its use to quantify vulnerabilities in the carbon-climate-human system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, Michael; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Rayner, Peter J.; Trudinger, Catherine M.

    2011-01-01

    Interactions between the carbon cycle, climate and human societies are subject to several major vulnerabilities, broadly defined as factors contributing to the risk of harm from human-induced climate change. We assess five vulnerabilities: (1) effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon between atmospheric, land and ocean reservoirs; (2) effects of climate change (quantified by temperature) on CO 2 fluxes; (3) uncertainty in climate sensitivity; (4) non-CO 2 radiative forcing and (5) anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Our analysis uses a physically based expression for Tp(Qp), the peak warming Tp associated with a cumulative anthropogenic CO 2 emission Qp to the time of peak warming. The approximations in this expression are evaluated using a non-linear box model of the carbon-climate system, forced with capped emissions trajectories described by an analytic form satisfying integral and smoothness constraints. The first four vulnerabilities appear as parameters that influence Tp(Qp), whereas the last appears through the independent variable. In terms of likely implications for Tp(Qp), the decreasing order of the first four vulnerabilities is: uncertainties in climate sensitivity, effects of non-CO 2 radiative forcing, effects of climate change on CO 2 fluxes and effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon. (authors)

  10. Drivers of soil organic matter vulnerability to climate change. Part I: Laboratory incubations of Swiss forest soils and radiocarbon analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Domínguez, Beatriz; Studer, Mirjam S.; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Haghipour, Negar; McIntyre, Cameron; Wacker, Lukas; Zimmermann, Stephan; Walthert, Lorenz; Hagedorn, Frank; Abiven, Samuel

    2016-04-01

    Given the key role of soil organic carbon (SOC) on climate and greenhouse gas regulation, there is an increasing need to incorporate the carbon (C) feedback between SOC and the atmosphere into earth system models. The evaluation of these models points towards uncertainties on the response of CO2-C fluxes, derived from the decomposition of SOC, to the influence of controls/drivers. SOC vulnerability refers to the likelihood of losing previously stabilized soil organic matter, by the effect of environmental factors. The objective of this study is to produce a SOC vulnerability ranking of soils and to provide new insights into the influence of environmental and soil properties controls. Research on SOC vulnerability tends to focus on climatic controls and neglect the effect of other factors, such as soil geochemistry and mineralogy, on C stabilization/de-stabilization processes. In this work, we hypothesized that climate (mean annual temperature and soil moisture status proxy at the research sites in the period 1981-2010), soil (pH and % clay) and terrain (slope gradient and orientation) characteristics are the main controls of the CO2-C fluxes from SOC. Following a statistics-based approach, we selected 54 forest sites across Switzerland, which cover a broad spectrum of values for the hypothesized controls. Then, we selected the study sites so that the controls are orthogonal to each other; thus, their effect was not confounded. At each site, we collected three non-overlapping topsoil (i.e. 20 cm) composites within 40 x 40 m2 plots. In the laboratory, we sieved fresh soils at 2 mm and run a 2-weeks pre-incubation, before beginning a 6-months aerobic soil incubation under controlled conditions of moisture and temperature. Periodically, we collected NaOH (1M) traps containing the CO2-C derived from microbial heterotrophic respiration. We calculated the cumulative CO2-C respired and the one-pool SOC decomposition rates from the 54 forest sites, and linked these data to

  11. Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

  12. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  13. Poverty and Climate Change. Part 1. Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abeygunawardena, P. [Asian Development Bank ADB, Tokyo (Japan); Vyas, Y. [African Development Bank AfDB, Abidjan (Cote d' Ivoire); Knill, P. [Federal German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development BMZ, Bonn (Germany); Foy, T.; Harrold, M.; Steele, P.; Tanner, T. [Department for International Developmen DFID, London (United Kingdom); Hirsch, D.; Oosterman, M.; Rooimans, J. [Development Cooperation DGIS, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Den Haag (Netherlands); Debois, M.; Lamin, M. [Directorate-General for Development, European Commission EC, Brussels (Belgium); Liptow, H.; Mausolf, E.; Verheyen, R. [Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Technische Zusammenarbeit GTZ, Eschborn (Germany); Agrawala, S.; Caspary, G.; Paris, R. [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD, Paris (France); Kashyap, A. [United Nations Development Programme UNDP, New York, NY (United States); Sharma, R. [United Nations Environment Programme UNEP, Nairobi (Kenya); Mathur, A.; Sharma, M.; Sperling, F. [World Bank, Washington, DC (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Despite international efforts, poverty has become more widespread in many countries in the last decade, making poverty reduction the core challenge for development in the 21st century. In the Millennium Declaration, 189 nations have resolved to halve extreme poverty by 2015 and all agencies involved in this paper are committed to contribute to this aim. However, climate change is a serious risk to poverty reduction and threatens to undo decades of development efforts. This paper focuses on the impacts of climate change on poverty reduction efforts in the context of sustaining progress towards the Millennium Development Goals and beyond. It discusses ways of mainstreaming and integrating adaptation to climate change into poverty reduction and sustainable development efforts. The chief messages emerging from this paper are: Climate change is happening and will increasingly affect the poor; and Adaptation is necessary and there is a need to integrate responses to climate change and adaptation measures into strategies for poverty reduction to ensure sustainable development. This decision to focus on adaptation is deliberate and is taken with the understanding that adaptation cannot replace mitigation efforts. The magnitude and rate of climate change will strongly depend on efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. The higher the concentrations of GHGs, the higher the likelihood of irreversible and grave damage to human and biological systems. Therefore, adaptation is only one part of the solution. Mitigation of climate change by limiting greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere is the indispensable other part.

  14. Knowledge and perception about climate change and human health: findings from a baseline survey among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Azim, Syed; Milton, Abul Hasnat

    2016-03-15

    Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change (CC). A basic understanding of public perception on vulnerability, attitude and the risk in relation to CC and health will provide strategic directions for government policy, adaptation strategies and development of community-based guidelines. The objective of this study was to collect community-based data on peoples' knowledge and perception about CC and its impact on health. In 2012, a cross-sectional survey was undertaken among 6720 households of 224 enumeration areas of rural villages geographically distributed in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh, with total population of 19,228,598. Thirty households were selected randomly from each enumeration area using the household listing provided by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Information was collected from all the 6720 research participants using a structured questionnaire. An observation checklist was used by the interviewers to collect household- and community-related information. In addition, we selected the head of each household as the eligible participant for an interview. Evidence of association between sociodemographic variables and knowledge of CC was explored by cross-tabulation and measured using chi-square tests. Logistic regression models were used to further explore the predictors of knowledge. The study revealed that the residents of the rural communities selected for this study largely come from a low socioeconomic background: only 9.6% had postsecondary education or higher, the majority worked as day labourer or farmer (60%), and only 10% earned a monthly income above BDT 12000 (equivalent to US $150 approx.). The majority of the participants (54.2%) had some knowledge about CC but 45.8% did not (p change of climate (83.2%). Among all the respondents (n = 6720), 94.5% perceived change in climate and extreme weather events. Most of them (91.9%) observed change in rainfall patterns in the last 10 years, and 97

  15. Tailored stakeholder products help provide a vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Greek forests due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Roussos, Anargyros

    2014-05-01

    Greece, being part of the eastern Mediterranean basin, is an area particularly vulnerable to climate change and associated forest fire risk. The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of Greek forests to fire risk occurrence and identify potential adaptation options within the context of climate change through continuous interaction with local stakeholders. To address their needs, the following tools for the provision of climate information services were developed: 1. An application providing fire risk forecasts for the following 3 days (http://cirrus.meteo.noa.gr/forecast/bolam/index.htm) was developed from NOA to address the needs of short term fire planners. 2. A web-based application providing long term fire risk and other fire related indices changes due to climate change (time horizon up to 2050 and 2100) was developed in collaboration with the WWF Greece office to address the needs of long term fire policy makers (http://www.oikoskopio.gr/map/). 3. An educational tool was built in order to complement the two web-based tools and to further expand knowledge in fire risk modeling to address the needs for in-depth training. In particular, the second product provided the necessary information to assess the exposure to forest fires. To this aim, maps depicting the days with elevated fire risk (FWI>30) both for the control (1961-1990) and the near future period (2021-2050) were created by the web-application. FWI is a daily index that provides numerical ratings of relative fire potential based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are daily noon values of temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. It was found that eastern lowlands are more exposed to fire risk followed by eastern high elevation areas, for both the control and near future period. The next step towards vulnerability assessment was to address sensitivity, ie the human-environmental conditions that

  16. Combining analytiacal frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptiation option

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.J.; Schwilch, G.; Springer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

    2013-01-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood

  17. What if ... abrupt and extreme climate change? Programme of VAM (Vulnerability, Adaptation, Mitigation)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-10-01

    A number of researchers from different social scientific disciplines present a view in response to the question 'what will happen in our society if the climate suddenly changes?'. They answer questions such as: How will people respond to real risks such as imminent flooding? What are the economic consequences? How will it affect sectors such as inland shipping and coastal tourism? What are the costs of adapting our country to rising sea levels or sudden cold? As a society what do we consider to be socially and publicly acceptable? Can we still insure ourselves? Who will assume responsibility and what are the tasks of the various parties involved? The book merely sets the scene. Social sciences research into climate change has only just started. Besides providing answers to the question about the social and public implications of abrupt climate change, the book calls for a greater involvement of social scientists in climate change issues

  18. A vulnerability and risk assessment of SEPTA's regional rail : a transit climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    This final report for the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Transit Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Pilot describes the actions : taken, information gathered, analyses performed, and lessons learned throughout the pilot project. This report d...

  19. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in Greenland and the Faroe Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heide-Joergensen, H S; Johnsen, I [Koebenhavns Univ., Botanisk Inst., Oekologisk afd. (Denmark)

    1998-12-31

    An increase in the mean yearly temperature up to 3.6 deg. C may occur in North-Greenland by the end of the 21st century, while in south-Greenland temperature may remain stable or fall slightly. Consequences of this climate change for species diversity and the structure of terrestrial and marine ecosystems are discussed. For the Faroe Islands climate change is not expected to cause notable changes in terrestrial ecosystems, but in marine ecosystems changes are highly unpredictable. (au)

  20. Vulnerability of freshwater fisheries and impacts of climate change in south Indian states economies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sannadurgappa, D.; Abitha, R.; Sukumaran, S.

    and economic significance? This is a simple question, but a comprehensive answer would require predictions of the geographic patterns of global warming (from global circulation models) and predicted impacts of atmospheric warming on climatic, hydrological... on people would further require an understanding of the social and economic dynamics of fishing fleets and fishing communities, and their capacity to adapt to change. Such integrated predictions of the impact of climate change are beyond the current...

  1. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in Greenland and the Faroe Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heide-Joergensen, H.S.; Johnsen, I.

    1997-01-01

    An increase in the mean yearly temperature up to 3.6 deg. C may occur in North-Greenland by the end of the 21st century, while in south-Greenland temperature may remain stable or fall slightly. Consequences of this climate change for species diversity and the structure of terrestrial and marine ecosystems are discussed. For the Faroe Islands climate change is not expected to cause notable changes in terrestrial ecosystems, but in marine ecosystems changes are highly unpredictable. (au)

  2. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in Greenland and the Faroe Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heide-Joergensen, H.S.; Johnsen, I. [Koebenhavns Univ., Botanisk Inst., Oekologisk afd. (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    An increase in the mean yearly temperature up to 3.6 deg. C may occur in North-Greenland by the end of the 21st century, while in south-Greenland temperature may remain stable or fall slightly. Consequences of this climate change for species diversity and the structure of terrestrial and marine ecosystems are discussed. For the Faroe Islands climate change is not expected to cause notable changes in terrestrial ecosystems, but in marine ecosystems changes are highly unpredictable. (au)

  3. Assessing vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P.

    2003-01-01

    It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the

  4. Enhancing the usability of seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate information - an evidence-based framework for the identification and assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    The successful provision of from seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate service products to sector-specific users is dependent on specific problem characteristics and individual user needs and decision-making processes. Climate information requires an impact on decision making to have any value (Rodwell and Doblas-Reyes, 2006). For that reason the knowledge of sector-specific vulnerabilities to S2D climate variability is very valuable information for both, climate service producers and users. In this context a concept for a vulnerability assessment framework was developed to (i) identify climate events (and especially their temporal scales) critical for sector-specific problems to assess the basic requirements for an appropriate climate-service product development; and to (ii) assess the potential impact or value of related climate information for decision-makers. The concept was developed within the EUPORIAS project (European Provision of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales) based on ten project-related case-studies from different sectors all over Europe. In the prevalent stage the framework may be useful as preliminary assessment or 'quick-scan' of the vulnerability of specific systems to climate variability in the context of S2D climate service provision. The assessment strategy of the framework is user-focused, using predominantly a bottom-up approach (vulnerability as state) but also a top-down approach (vulnerability as outcome) generally based on qualitative data (surveys, interviews, etc.) and literature research for system understanding. The starting point of analysis is a climate-sensitive 'critical situation' of the considered system which requires a decision and is defined by the user. From this basis the related 'critical climate conditions' are assessed and 'climate information needs' are derived. This mainly refers to the critical period of time of the climate event or sequence of events. The relevant period of time of problem

  5. Communicating climate information for decision-making “Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa”

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, C

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The USAID-funded project presented here was designed to build capacity among the SADC member states in understanding information on climate impact and risk in the context of early-warning strategies and planning. The handbook was produced by a team...

  6. Climate change and coffee: assessing vulnerability by modeling future climate suitability in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen J. Fain; Maya Quiñones; Nora L. Álvarez-Berríos; Isabel K. Parés-Ramos; William A. Gould

    2017-01-01

    Coffee production has long been culturally and economically important in Puerto Rico. However, since peaking in the late nineteenth century, harvests are near record lows with many former farms abandoned. While value-added markets present new opportunities to reinvigorate the industry, regional trends associated with climate change may threaten the ability to produce...

  7. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

    2014-01-01

    We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

  8. Methodological framework, analytical tool and database for the assessment of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skougaard Kaspersen, P.; Halsnaes, K.; Gregg, J.; Drews, M.

    2012-12-15

    In this report we provide recommendations about how more consistent studies and data can be provided based on available modelling tools and data for integrated assessment of climate change risks and adaptation options. It is concluded that integrated assessments within this area requires the use of a wide range of data and models in order to cover the full chain of elements including climate modelling, impact, risks, costs, social issues, and decision making. As an outcome of this activity a comprehensive data and modelling tool named Danish Integrated Assessment System (DIAS) has been developed, this may be used by researchers within the field. DIAS has been implemented and tested in a case study on urban flooding caused by extreme precipitation in Aarhus, and this study highlights the usefulness of integrating data, models, and methods from several disciplines into a common framework. DIAS is an attempt to describe such a framework with regards to integrated analysis of climate impacts and adaptation. The final product of the DTU KFT project ''Tool for Vulnerability analysis'' is NOT a user friendly Climate Adaptation tool ready for various types of analysis that may directly be used by decision makers and consultant on their own. Rather developed methodology and collected/available data can serve as a starting point for case specific analyses. For this reason alone this work should very much be viewed as an attempt to coordinate research, data and models outputs between different research institutes from various disciplines. It is unquestionable that there is a future need to integrate information for areas not yet included, and it is very likely that such efforts will depend on research projects conducted in different climate change adaptation areas and sectors in Denmark. (Author)

  9. Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooke E Penaluna

    Full Text Available Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011, and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year, but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

  10. Beyond the black box: Forest sector vulnerability assessments and adaptation to climate change in North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wellstead, Adam; Rayner, Jeremy; Howlett, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the failures to date of well-publicized multilateral and multi-sectoral mitigation efforts to control greenhouse gases, attention is now increasingly focused on the effectiveness and capacity of national and sub-national level sectoral plans, including forestry, to usher in a new era of adaptation efforts. In Canada, the government of British Columbia spent several years developing its Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative as part of a larger climate change response strategy in the forest sector. Similarly, in the United States, wildfire related events have led to climate change inspired efforts by individual states (e.g., Alaska, California) and the US Forest Service has recently undertaken plans to incorporate climate change considerations in national forest planning beginning with the National Road Map for Responding to Climate Change. This paper highlights a number of shortcomings with both these national and sub-national strategies with respect to the relationships existing between governance, forestry and climate change. It proposes incorporating considerations of governance mechanisms directly into forest sector planning and the need to assess not only natural system level changes but also the extent to which new problems can be dealt with by ‘old’ or ‘new’ governance arrangements

  11. Pollinators in peril? A multipark approach to evaluating bee communities in habitats vulnerable to effects from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rykken, Jessica; Rodman, Ann; Droege, Sam; Grundel, Ralph

    2014-01-01

    In 2010, collaborators from the National Park Service (Ann Rodman, Yellowstone National Park), USGS (Sam Droege and Ralph Grundel), and Harvard University (Jessica Rykken) were awarded funding from the NPS Climate Change Response Program to launch just such an investigation in almost 50 units of the National Park System (fig. 1). The main objectives of this multiyear project were to: Compare bee communities in three “vulnerable” habitats (high elevation, inland arid, coastal) and paired “common” habitats, representative of the landscape matrix, in order to determine whether vulnerable habitats have a distinctive bee fauna that may be at higher risk under climate change scenarios. Inform natural resource managers at each park about the bee fauna at their paired sites, including the presence of rare and endemic species, and make suggestions for active management strategies to promote native bee habitat if warranted. Increase awareness among park natural resource staffs, interpreters, and visitors of native bee diversity and natural history, the essential role of bees in maintaining healthy ecosystems, and potential threats from climate change to pollinator-dependent ecosystems.

  12. From vulnerability to the 'weak power'. The political and diplomatic action of Bangladesh in the struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baillat, Alice

    2017-07-01

    As Bangladesh has been awarded by the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) for its leadership in the struggle against climate change, the author, while discussing the actions undertaken by this country, presents the concept of 'weak power' which is the ability of a weak actor to transform his vulnerability into a lever for public action, and into a comparative asset to influence the process and international negotiations. The author proposes an overview of the climate policy implemented since 2000 by Bangladesh, and of its commitments in international actions and bodies. She outlines how, as one of the main victims of climate change, Bangladesh appears as a moral leader on the international scene. She also described how this country has become a place of experimentation and of production of new 'Southern' knowledge, and is considered as a precursor in 'community-based adaptation'. This example shows that a mutualization of resources can make countries stronger, and that coalitions (notably between developing countries) can be very important in international negotiations. However, the author outlines that this 'weak power' is more or less efficient, depending on the context

  13. Nile Basin Vegetation Response and Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yitayew, M.; Didan, K.; Barreto-munoz, A.

    2013-12-01

    The Nile Basin is one of the world's water resources hotspot that is home to over 437 million people in ten riparian countries with 54% or 238 millions live directly within the basin. The basin like all other basins of the world is facing water resources challenges exacerbated by climate change and increased demand. Nowadays any water resource management action in the basin has to assess the impacts of climate change to be able to predict future water supply and also to help in the negotiation process. Presently, there is a lack of basin wide weather networks to understand sensitivity of the vegetation cover to the impacts of climate change. Vegetation plays major economic and ecological functions in the basin and provides key services ranging from pastoralism, agricultural production, firewood, habitat and food sources for the rich wildlife, as well as a major role in the carbon cycle and climate regulation of the region. Under the threat of climate change and the incessant anthropogenic pressure the distribution and services of the region's ecosystems are projected to change The goal of this work is to assess and characterize how the basin vegetation productivity, distribution, and phenology have changed over the last 30+ years and what are the key climatic drivers of this change. This work makes use of a newly generated multi-sensor long-term land surface data set about vegetation and phenology. Vegetation indices derived from remotely sensed surface reflectance data are commonly used to characterize phenology or vegetation dynamics accurately and with enough spatial and temporal resolution to support change detection. We used more than 30 years of vegetation index and growing season data from AVHRR and MODIS sensors compiled by the Vegetation Index and Phenology laboratory (VIP LAB) at the University of Arizona. Available climate data about precipitation and temperature for the corresponding 30 years period is also used for this analysis. We looked at the

  14. Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oene, H.; Berendse, F.; De Kovel, C.G.F. [Nature Consevation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Alkemade, J.R.M.; Bakkenes, M.; Ihle, F. [National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1999-07-01

    The aim of this project was to analyze the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity are analyzed using a species based probabilistic Model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca 1400 European plant species to climatic variables as the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season, and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised C0{sub 2} levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity are analyzed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models, using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture, and light intensity. With these two approaches, the consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilization 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) are analyzed for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrofication and human impact have large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent. 49 refs.

  15. Climate Vulnerability of Hydro-power infrastructure in the Eastern African Power Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, Vignesh

    2017-04-01

    At present there is around 6000 MW of installed hydropower capacity in the Eastern African power pool (EAPP)[1]. With countries aggressively planning to achieve the Sustainable development goal (SDG) of ensuring access to affordable electricity for all, a three-fold increase in hydropower capacity is expected by 2040 [1]. Most of the existing and planned infrastructure lie inside the Nile River Basin. The latest assessment report (AR 5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates a high level of climatic uncertainty in the Nile Basin. The Climate Moisture index (CMI) for the Eastern Nile region and the Nile Equatorial lakes varies significantly across the different General Circulation Models (GCM)[2]. Such high uncertainty casts a shadow on the plans to expand hydropower capacity, doubting whether hydropower expansion can contribute to the goal of improving access to electricity or end up as sunk investments. In this assessment, we analyze adaptation strategies for national energy systems in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), which minimize the regret that could potentially arise from impacts of a changed climate. An energy systems model of the EAPP is developed representing national electricity supply infrastructure. Cross border transmission and hydropower infrastructure is defined at individual project level. The energy systems model is coupled with a water systems management model of the Nile River Basin that calculates the water availability at different hydropower infrastructures under a range of climate scenarios. The results suggest that a robust adaptation strategy consisting of investments in cross border electricity transmission infrastructure and diversifying sources of electricity supply will require additional investments of USD 4.2 billion by 2050. However, this leads to fuel and operational cost savings of up to USD 22.6 billion, depending on the climate scenario. [1] "Platts, 2016. World Electric Power Plants Database

  16. Risk and vulnerability to global and climate change in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [C.B. Field, V. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.... Qin, Z. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance...

  17. Vulnerability of Permafrost Soil Carbon to Climate Warming: Evaluating Controls on Microbial Community Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract: Despite the fact that permafrost soils contain up to half of the carbon (C) in terrestrial pools, we have a poor understanding of the controls on decomposition in thawed permafrost. Global climate models assume that decomposition increases linearly with temperature, yet decomposition in th...

  18. Vulnerability to climate change and community based adaptation in the Peruvian Andes, a stepwise approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lasage, R.; Muis, S.; Sardella, C.S.E.; van Drunen, M.A.; Verburg, P.H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2015-01-01

    The livelihoods of people in the Andes are expected to be affected by climate change due to their dependence on glacier water. The observed decrease in glacier volume over the last few decades is likely to accelerate during the current century, which will affect water availability in the region.

  19. Natural areas as a basis for assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margaret H. Massie; Todd M. Wilson; Anita T. Morzillo; Emilie B. Henderson

    2016-01-01

    There are more than 580 natural areas in Oregon and Washington managed by 20 federal, state, local, and private agencies and organizations. This natural areas network is unparalleled in its representation of the diverse ecosystems found in the Pacific Northwest, and could prove useful for monitoring long-term ecological responses to climate change. Our objectives were...

  20. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crystal L. Raymond; David L. Peterson; Regina M. Rochefort

    2014-01-01

    The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership (NCAP) is a science-management partnership consisting of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Mount Baker-Snoqualmie and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forests and Pacific Northwest Research Station; North Cascades National Park Complex; Mount Rainier National Park; and University of Washington Climate Impacts Group....

  1. Climate vulnerability of native cold-water salmonids in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael K. Young; Daniel J. Isaak; Scott Spaulding; Cameron A. Thomas; Scott A. Barndt; Matthew C. Groce; Dona Horan; David E. Nagel

    2018-01-01

    During the 21st century, climate change is expected to alter aquatic habitats throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains, intermountain basins, and western Great Plains. Particularly in montane watersheds, direct changes are likely to include warmer water temperatures, earlier snowmelt-driven runoff, earlier declines to summer baseflow, downhill movement of perennial...

  2. A web-based dissemination platform for climate-change risk and vulnerability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sibolla, B

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available . The rapid advance in computer technology has led to heavy reliance on digital predictive modelling and digital data dissemination which have both been leveraged in this project. We present data sets of predicted climate-change variables, over selected urban...

  3. Leaf-trait plasticity and species vulnerability to climate change in a Mongolian steppe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Liancourt, Pierre; Boldgiv, B.; Song, D. S.; Spence, L. A.; Helliker, B. R.; Petrais, P. S.; Casper, B. B.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 9 (2015), s. 3489-3498 ISSN 1354-1013 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 267243 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * drought * functional traits Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 8.444, year: 2015

  4. Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edward A.G. Schuur; James Bockheim; Josep G. Canadell; Eugenie Euskirchen; Christopher B. Field; Sergey V. Goryachkin; Stefan Hagemann; Peter Kuhry; Peter M. Lafleur; Hanna Lee; Galina Mazhitova; Frederick E. Nelson; Annette Rinke; Vladimir E. Romanovsky; Nikolay Shiklomanov; Charles Tarnocai; Sergey Venevsky; Jason G. Vogel; Sergei A. Zimov

    2008-01-01

    Thawing permafrost and the resulting microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. In this article we present an overview of the global permafrost C pool and of the processes that might transfer this C into the atmosphere, as well as...

  5. Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke E. Penaluna; Jason B. Dunham; Steve F. Railsback; Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Robert E. Bilby; Mohammad Safeeq; Arne E. Skaugset; James P. Meador

    2015-01-01

    Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of...

  6. Vulnerability Assessment of Dust Storms in the United States under a Changing Climate Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe weather events, such as flooding, drought, forest fires, and dust storms can have a serious impact on human health. Dust storm events are not well predicted in the United States, however they are expected to become more frequent as global climate warms through the 21st cen...

  7. Profiling climate change vulnerability of forest indigenous communities in the Congo Basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nkem, J.N.; Somorin, O.A.; Jum, C.; Idinoba, M.E.; Bele, Y.M.; Sonwa, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    The livelihood strategies of indigenous communities in the Congo Basin are inseparable from the forests, following their use of forest ecosystem goods and services (FEGS). Climate change is expected to exert impacts on the forest and its ability to provide FEGS. Thus, human livelihoods that depend

  8. Vulnerability, forest-related sectors and climate change adaptation : the case of Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sonwa, D.J.; Somorin, O.A.; Jum, C.; Bele, M.Y.; Nkem, J.N.

    2012-01-01

    In Cameroon and elsewhere in the Congo Basin, the majority of rural households and a large proportion of urban households depend on plant and animal products from the forests to meet their nutritional, energy, cultural and medicinal needs. This paper explores the likely impacts of climate-induced

  9. Assessing vulnerability to climate change and socioeconomic stressors in the Reef Islands group, Solomon Islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    aims at critically re-assessing this view by placing climate in the context of a range of other internal and external stressors affecting local livelihoods, including population growth, inadequate land use practices, and lack of economic potential, as well as external factors such as poorly developed...

  10. Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Forman, Barton; Zhang, Xiao

    2017-07-10

    This study explores the interactions between climate and thermoelectric generation in the U.S. by coupling an Earth System Model with a thermoelectric power generation model. We validated model simulations of power production for selected power plants (~44% of existing thermoelectric capacity) against reported values. In addition, we projected future usable capacity for existing power plants under two different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average thermoelectric generating capacity by 2%-3% by the 2060s. Reductions up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. This study concludes that the impact of climate change on the U.S. thermoelectric power system is less than previous estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially-disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. This work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs in which the operation of power plants are managed, and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

  11. Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

    2017-04-01

    1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses

  12. Infrastructure Damage/Fragility Models and Data Quality Issues Associated with Department of Defense Climate Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-26

    Jeffrey Donnelly, Richard Moss,  Joseph Donoghue, Steve Kish, Jim Elsner, Robert Evans, David LaBranche, Justin LaRose, Adam  Parris,  Chris  Weaver...Garrow, L.,  Higgins , M., and Meyer, M. (2013). ”Impacts of Climate Change on Scour‐ Vulnerable Bridges: Assessment Based on HYRISK.” J. Infrastruct...Adam Parris  NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and  Assessments Program  Y  Chris  Weaver  U.S. Global Change Research Program  Y    83    Name

  13. Vulnerabilities and Adapting Irrigated and Rainfed Cotton to Climate Change in the Lower Mississippi Delta Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saseendran S. Anapalli

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic activities continue to emit potential greenhouse gases (GHG into the atmosphere leading to a warmer climate over the earth. Predicting the impacts of climate change (CC on food and fiber production systems in the future is essential for devising adaptations to sustain production and environmental quality. We used the CSM-CROPGRO-cotton v4.6 module within the RZWQM2 model for predicting the possible impacts of CC on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum production systems in the lower Mississippi Delta (MS Delta region of the USA. The CC scenarios were based on an ensemble of climate projections of multiple GCMs (Global Climate Models/General Circulation Models for climate change under the CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Program 5 program, that were bias-corrected and spatially downscaled (BCSD at Stoneville location in the MS Delta for the years 2050 and 2080. Four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP drove these CC projections: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 (these numbers refer to radiative forcing levels in the atmosphere of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W·m−2, representing the increasing levels of the greenhouse gas (GHG emission scenarios for the future, as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5. The cotton model within RZWQM2, calibrated and validated for simulating cotton production at Stoneville, was used for simulating production under these CC scenarios. Under irrigated conditions, cotton yields increased significantly under the CC scenarios driven by the low to moderate emission levels of RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 6.0 in years 2050 and 2080, but under the highest emission scenario of RCP 8.5, the cotton yield increased in 2050 but declined significantly in year 2080. Under rainfed conditions, the yield declined in both 2050 and 2080 under all four RCP scenarios; however, the yield still increased when enough rainfall was received to meet the water requirements of the crop (in

  14. Climate and Water Vulnerability of the US Electricity Grid Under High Penetrations of Renewable Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; O'Connell, M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Newmark, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    The US power sector is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operations, primarily for thermoelectric cooling and hydropower technologies. Changes in the availability and temperature of water resources can limit electricity generation and cause outages at power plants, which substantially affect grid-level operational decisions. While the effects of water variability and climate changes on individual power plants are well documented, prior studies have not identified the significance of these impacts at the regional systems-level at which the grid operates, including whether there are risks for large-scale blackouts, brownouts, or increases in production costs. Adequately assessing electric grid system-level impacts requires detailed power sector modeling tools that can incorporate electric transmission infrastructure, capacity reserves, and other grid characteristics. Here, we present for the first time, a study of how climate and water variability affect operations of the power sector, considering different electricity sector configurations (low vs. high renewable) and environmental regulations. We use a case study of the US Eastern Interconnection, building off the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) that explored operational challenges of high penetrations of renewable energy on the grid. We evaluate climate-water constraints on individual power plants, using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model coupled with the PLEXOS electricity production cost model, in the context of broader electricity grid operations. Using a five minute time step for future years, we analyze scenarios of 10% to 30% renewable energy penetration along with considerations of river temperature regulations to compare the cost, performance, and reliability tradeoffs of water-dependent thermoelectric generation and variable renewable energy technologies under climate stresses. This work provides novel insights into the resilience and

  15. Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process

  16. Palaeolimnological evidence of vulnerability of Lake Neusiedl (Austria) toward climate related changes since the last "vanished-lake" stage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolotti, Monica; Milan, Manuela; Boscaini, Adriano; Soja, Gerhard; Herzig, Alois

    2013-04-01

    The palaeolimnological reconstruction of secular evolution of Euroepan Lakes with key socio-economical relevance respect to large (climate change) and local scale (land use, tourism) environmental changes, represents one of the objectives of the project EuLakes (European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors, Supporting lake governance to mitigate the impact of climate change, Reg. N. 2CE243P3), launched in 2010 within the Central European Inititiative. The project consortium comprises lakes of different morphology and prevalent human uses, including the meso-eutrophic Lake Neusiedl, the largest Austrian lake (total area 315 km2), and the westernmost shallow (mean depth 1.2 m) steppe lake of the Euro-Asiatic continent. The volume of Lake Neusiedl can potentially change over the years, in relation with changing balance between atmospheric precipitation and lake water evapotranspiration. Changing water budget, together with high lake salinity and turbidity, have important implications over the lake ecosystem. This contribution illustrates results of the multi-proxi palaeolimnological reconstruction of ecologial changes occurred in Lake Neusiedl during the last ca. 140 years, i.e. since the end of the last "vanished-lake" stage (1865-1871). Geochemical and biological proxies anticipate the increase in lake productivity of ca. 10 years (1950s) respect to what reported in the literature. Diatom species composition indicate a biological lake recovery in the late 1980s, and suggest a second increment in lake productivity since the late 1990s, possibly in relation with the progressive increase in the nitrogen input from agriculture. Abundance of diatoms typical of brackish waters indicated no significant long-term change in lake salinity, while variations in species toleranting dessiccation confirm the vulnerability of Lake Neusiedl toward climate-driven changes in the lake water balance. This fragility is aggravated by the the semi-arid climate conditions of the catchemnt

  17. What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, James D; Pearce, Tristan

    2010-01-01

    This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

  18. Impacts of climate change on the municipal water management system in the Kingdom of Bahrain: Vulnerability assessment and adaptation options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waleed K. Al-Zubari

    Full Text Available An assessment of the vulnerability of the municipal water management system to the impacts of climate change in the Kingdom of Bahrain, manifested by the increase in demands due to increase in temperatures, is conducted using a dynamic mathematical model representing the water sector in the kingdom. The model is developed using WEAP software and was calibrated and validated by historical matching utilizing data for the period 2000–2012. The model is used in the evaluation of the municipal water sector performance in terms of municipal water demands and their associated cost without and with climate change impacts scenarios for the period 2012–2030. The impact of climate change on the municipal water system is quantified as the difference between the two scenarios in three selected cost indicators: financial (production, conveyance and distribution costs, economic (natural gas asset consumption by desalination plants, and environmental (CO2 emissions by desalination plants. The vulnerability assessment indicated that the current municipal water management system in Bahrain is generally inefficient and associated with relatively high costs, which are expected to increase with time under the current policies and management approach focusing on supply-side management. The increase in temperature will increase these already high costs, and would exacerbate the water management challenges in Bahrain. However, these mounting challenges also present an opportune moment for Bahrain to review its current water resources management approaches and practices and to integrate climate change adaptation measures into its water planning and policies. In order to build an adaptive management capacity of the municipal water management system in Bahrain, a number of management interventions are proposed and evaluated, individually and combined, for their effectiveness in enhancing the efficiency of the management system using the developed dynamic model. These

  19. Vulnerability and adaptation of ecologically sensitive mangrove habitats to the changing climate

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jagtap, T.G.; Kulkarni, V.A.; Verlekar, X.N.

    has risen 10-20cm during the Twentieth century. General Circulation Models (GCM) projected a 9.88cm rise in sea level, increased extreme weather events and precipitation over the Asian region (UNEP / UNESCO, 1992, IPPC, 2001). However a lot... Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 578 pp. INQUA, 2000. Homepage of the Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, www.pog.su.se/sea. Sea level changes, News and Views, The Maldives Project IPPC, 2001. Climate...

  20. Increasing severity of damage caused by floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (1960-2014), climate change or vulnerability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Alfredo; Gil, Salvador; Lopez, Francisco; Barriendos, Mariano

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, there has been an increase in physical and economic losses (WMO, CRED and UCL, 2014) that raises serious concerns in society. Climate change projections may explain the rise in flood losses; however, these shouldn't be considered yet (Bouwer, 2011). According to IPCC (2014), there is low confidence in anthropogenic climate change affecting the frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods on a global scale. In other words, this increase in flood events is not completely related to the higher frequency of heavy rainfall. To illustrate the aforementioned, a spatial example can be seen in the study area. In the Spanish Mediterranean coast, we see an increase in economic losses within the last 50 years due to flood events (Gil et al., 2014). It seems that the socio-economic growth and the rise of housing construction (Gaja, 2008) have led to an increase in vulnerability and exposure which are mainly responsible for those losses and the increase in severity of flood events (Pérez et al., 2015). Furthermore, this situation will probably become more precarious if some climate forecasts are met [IPCC, 2014; AEMET, 2015], and if the economic model fails to adopt efficient adaptive measures. Therefore, it is interesting to focus attention on social factors either within the present or future scenario in order to minimise the potential consequences and improve the adaptation. The main objective of this work focuses on the study of the evolution of the severity of the floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast for the period (1960-2015). To do that, a statistical analysis of the data base [Gil et al., 2014; extended to the entire Spanish Mediterranean coast (MEDIFLOOD)] and a multiscale mapping (local, provincial and regional level) of the frequency of these events will take place in order to make comparisons and show spatiotemporal patterns according to the severity events evolution. Preliminary results show some interesting statistically significant

  1. Sahara and Sahel vulnerability to climate changes, lessons from the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lezine, Anne-Marie; Hély, Christelle; Grenier, Christophe; Braconnot, Pascale

    2010-05-01

    Since the Sahelian drought in the 1970s, climate variability in north tropical Africa has been the subject of intensive research focusing on the functioning of the Atlantic monsoon system as well as on past variations in rainfall from historical and natural archives. An "abrupt" climate change has been recorded off the Mauritanian coast at the end of the African Humid Period (AHP) 5500 years ago illustrating the onset of the modern climate regime [deMenocal et al., 2000]. At lake Yoa in NE Chad, [Kroepelin et al., 2008] report a "gradual" environmental change. Was this change abrupt or gradual, and amplified or not through vegetation change and feedbacks to the atmosphere is still the subject of debate. Here, we compile paleohydrological and palynological data between 10 and 28°N in the Sahara and Sahel with the purpose of understanding the response of the hydrological system and the vegetation cover to rainfall fluctuations from the onset of the AHP. Our data set is extracted from published studies. It is composed of 1651 dated samples from about 420 localities in the present day Sahara and Sahel. The occurrence of high and intermediate lake levels, fluvial terraces and wetlands as well as of dune edification are analysed with a 1000 yr period from 16 000 yrs BP to present. Clear trends are observed in the evolution of paleohydrological indicators versus time and latitude showing the progression of the centre of the distribution of humidity from south to north during the humid period and to the south after the AHP. The humidity maximum is observed with some temporal delay as compared to the June solar radiation maximum at 30°N. The reasons are investigated along the line of pure climate based processes and/or hydrological impacts. Further, the overall coherence among these signals is examined. Using climate simulations for different key periods in the Holocene, we investigate the relative impact of the insolation forcing, of the remnant ice sheet in the early

  2. CRABS IN CRISIS:BIOGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS, ABUNDANCES, AND VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF BRACHYURAN AND LITHODID CRABS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE BEAUFORT SEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    To predict the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change we analyzed the biogeographic and abundance patterns of the brachyuran or ‘True’ crabs (n=368) and lithodid or ‘King’ crabs (n=20) that are found in the twelve MEOW (“Mar...

  3. Knowledge and perception about climate change and human health: findings from a baseline survey among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Iqbal Kabir

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change (CC. A basic understanding of public perception on vulnerability, attitude and the risk in relation to CC and health will provide strategic directions for government policy, adaptation strategies and development of community-based guidelines. The objective of this study was to collect community-based data on peoples’ knowledge and perception about CC and its impact on health. Methods In 2012, a cross-sectional survey was undertaken among 6720 households of 224 enumeration areas of rural villages geographically distributed in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh, with total population of 19,228,598. Thirty households were selected randomly from each enumeration area using the household listing provided by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS. Information was collected from all the 6720 research participants using a structured questionnaire. An observation checklist was used by the interviewers to collect household- and community-related information. In addition, we selected the head of each household as the eligible participant for an interview. Evidence of association between sociodemographic variables and knowledge of CC was explored by cross-tabulation and measured using chi-square tests. Logistic regression models were used to further explore the predictors of knowledge. Results The study revealed that the residents of the rural communities selected for this study largely come from a low socioeconomic background: only 9.6 % had postsecondary education or higher, the majority worked as day labourer or farmer (60 %, and only 10 % earned a monthly income above BDT 12000 (equivalent to US $150 approx.. The majority of the participants (54.2 % had some knowledge about CC but 45.8 % did not (p < 0.001. The majority of knowledgeable participants (n = 3645 felt excessive temperature as the change of climate (83.2 %. Among all the

  4. Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia; Davidson, Margaret; Burkett, Virginia; Davidson, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of

  5. Linkages between human health and ocean health: a participatory climate change vulnerability assessment for marine mammal harvesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadamus, Lily

    2013-01-01

    Indigenous residents of Alaska's Bering Strait Region depend, both culturally and nutritionally, on ice seal and walrus harvests. Currently, climate change and resultant increases in marine industrial development threaten these species and the cultures that depend on them. To document: (a) local descriptions of the importance of marine mammal hunting; (b) traditional methods for determining if harvested marine mammals are safe to consume; and (c) marine mammal outcomes that would have adverse effects on community health, the perceived causes of these outcomes, strategies for preventing these outcomes and community adaptations to outcomes that cannot be mitigated. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with 82 indigenous hunters and elders from the Bering Strait region. Standard qualitative analysis was conducted on interview transcripts, which were coded for both inductive and deductive codes. Responses describing marine mammal food safety and importance are presented using inductively generated categories. Responses describing negative marine mammal outcomes are presented in a vulnerability framework, which links human health outcomes to marine conditions. Project participants perceived that shipping noise and pollution, as well as marine mammal food source depletion by industrial fishing, posed the greatest threats to marine mammal hunting traditions. Proposed adaptations primarily fell into 2 categories: (a) greater tribal influence over marine policy; and (b) documentation of traditional knowledge for local use. This paper presents 1 example of documenting traditional knowledge as an adaptation strategy: traditional methods for determining if marine mammal food is safe to eat. Participant recommendations indicate that 1 strategy to promote rural Alaskan adaptation to climate change is to better incorporate local knowledge and values into decision-making processes. Participant interest in documenting traditional knowledge for local use also

  6. Energy climate study. Energy assessment, Greenhouse gas emission assessment, Analysis of vulnerability to climate change, Courses of mitigation and adaptation actions. Full report + Appendices + Restitution of the Energy-Climate Study, September 17, 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    After a brief presentation of Le Mans region, a presentation of the study (context, scope, methodology), and a recall of challenges related to energy and to climate, this study reports a situational analysis and a discussion of development perspectives for energy production on the concerned territory, an assessment of energy consumptions and of greenhouse gas emissions by the different sectors, and a study of territory vulnerability to climate change (methodology, territory characteristics, climate scenarios, vulnerability assessment). It discusses lessons learned from energy and greenhouse gas emission assessments (social-economic stakes, territory strengths and weaknesses, perspectives for action). It discusses the implementation of these issues within a territorial planning document, and the perspective of elaboration of a territorial climate energy plan. An appendix reports an assessment of the potential of development of the different renewable energies (hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic and thermal, wind, wood, methanization, and other processes like waste valorisation, geothermal, and heat networks). Another appendix reports the precise assessment of greenhouse gas emissions on the territory. The next appendix proposes detailed descriptions of scenarios for the implementation of the issue of greenhouse gas emissions within the territorial planning document. The last appendix contains Power Point presentations of the study

  7. Effects of thinning on drought vulnerability and climate response in north temperate forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    D’Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.

    2013-01-01

    Reducing tree densities through silvicultural thinning has been widely advocated as a strategy for enhancing resistance and resilience to drought, yet few empirical evaluations of this approach exist. We examined detailed dendrochronological data from a long-term (>50 yrs) replicated thinning experiment to determine if density reductions conferred greater resistance and/or resilience to droughts, assessed by the magnitude of stand-level growth reductions. Our results suggest that thinning generally enhanced drought resistance and resilience; however, this relationship showed a pronounced reversal over time in stands maintained at lower tree densities. Specifically, lower-density stands exhibited greater resistance and resilience at younger ages (49 years), yet exhibited lower resistance and resilience at older ages (